And I don't see how KK goes but Truss survives. Every letter of the special financial operation would have been driven by, or at minimum endorsed, by her.
PMs sack chancellors all the time...
But Truss knew all about KK's policies and may even have suggested some of them (see once again the article in the Sunday Times I posted on both Sunday and last night).
Which means she is too tied to these policies for her to sack KK without the response hurting her as well.
Some interesting points being made on twitter, that so many of Kwarteng's friends and former colleagues are making a fortune shorting the pound...
I don't get how Kwarteng didn't anticipate the market reaction to his budget ? Say McDonnell had put out such a budget (With incontinent spending instead of tax cuts for instance), he'd have realised the market reaction in about 5 seconds. But with his own budget he seems to have completely and utterly missed the (Predictable) market reaction. It's unfathomable for such an intelligent man, the only explanation is that Kwarteng got so very very high on his own supply.
Because, in some ways, he’s not very bright
I think he did anticipate the sterling slide but not the sense of panic it’s causing. When you’re personally well off and operating in the realms of high economics, things like a currency slide and a slightly higher interest rate can seem very abstract and an acceptable price to pay. A savvier politician would know that’s not how other people see it.
And I don't see how KK goes but Truss survives. Every letter of the special financial operation would have been driven by, or at minimum endorsed, by her.
PMs sack chancellors all the time...
But Truss knew all about KK's policies and may even have suggested some of them (see once again the article in the Sunday Times I posted on both Sunday and last night).
Which means she is too tied to these policies for her to sack KK without the response hurting her as well.
Some interesting points being made on twitter, that so many of Kwarteng's friends and former colleagues are making a fortune shorting the pound...
Talking about negativity. The thread headers is just wishful thinking.
Talk about pot and kettle. From the most negative poster on the site.
I think he's right that it is wishful thinking, don't forget how much nonsense Boris put the country and party through before he was finally moved on. The next General Election arrives before that point hits for Truss. Her chancellor has made an error on a budget, it's not going to trigger a mass of letters.
And I don't see how KK goes but Truss survives. Every letter of the special financial operation would have been driven by, or at minimum endorsed, by her.
PMs sack chancellors all the time...
But Truss knew all about KK's policies and may even have suggested some of them (see once again the article in the Sunday Times I posted on both Sunday and last night).
Which means she is too tied to these policies for her to sack KK without the response hurting her as well.
Some interesting points being made on twitter, that so many of Kwarteng's friends and former colleagues are making a fortune shorting the pound...
Is there any evidence for that or just Twitter being Twitter?
Yesterday there were people on Twitter being quoted here making that point about people who had made "bullish" bets on the pound, ie they expected the pound to rise and then Tweeters claim they're making a fortune from shorting it when the opposite is true.
I don't get how Kwarteng didn't anticipate the market reaction to his budget ? Say McDonnell had put out such a budget (With incontinent spending instead of tax cuts for instance), he'd have realised the market reaction in about 5 seconds. But with his own budget he seems to have completely and utterly missed the (Predictable) market reaction. It's unfathomable for such an intelligent man, the only explanation is that Kwarteng got so very very high on his own supply.
They must have genuinely believed that the market reaction would be along the lines of: "Fantastic! The UK is now a place where we can get filthy rich and the government are on our side. London is going to boom. Let's all pile in."
To be honest, I wouldn't have been that surprised if that had been the reaction, but clearly the fiscal credibility of the UK was more vulnerable and has been the determining factor.
Alan Johnson and Alastair Campbell out batting for Labour this morning. Extraordinary how stale old fashioned and out of touch the Tories are starting to look.
As the second worst pollitical predictor on here I'm tempting fate but my guess is that this huge poll lead isn't an outlier but the shape of polls to come. I also sense SKS is going to turn into a serious asset.
And I don't see how KK goes but Truss survives. Every letter of the special financial operation would have been driven by, or at minimum endorsed, by her.
PMs sack chancellors all the time...
But Truss knew all about KK's policies and may even have suggested some of them (see once again the article in the Sunday Times I posted on both Sunday and last night).
Which means she is too tied to these policies for her to sack KK without the response hurting her as well.
Some interesting points being made on twitter, that so many of Kwarteng's friends and former colleagues are making a fortune shorting the pound...
Who said deliberately? The Truss - Kwarteng pact genuinely believes in this policy direction. Absolute zealots. But TK have been telling everyone publicly and hedgies privately what they are doing.
Hedgies are absolute zealots for money. They hear what TK are doing, and massively short sterling knowing that TK are fucking mental. Kerching! In any market calamity there is a fortune to be made.
Despite all the excitability on here, particularly from disappointed PB Tories, I just can't see any way that the Tories don't go into the next GE with Truss as leader and Kwarteng as CotE.
Truss can't sack Kwarteng, as they are ideologically joined at the hip and it would immediately trash her economic 'Britannia Unchained' vision. And frankly, sacking a Chancellor after such a short time would be seen, rightly, as ludicrous.
If Tory MPs defenestrated Truss, the chances of a Labour government would switch from likely to almost certain. Who would vote for a party that is so chaotic that it keeps switching leader? I think the price of defenestrating Truss would be an immediate GE.
So all they can do is cross their fingers and hope. A lot can happen in two years. As a Labour man, I still don't think the next GE is in the bag - there's a lot of fingernails still to be bitten before I relax.
And I don't see how KK goes but Truss survives. Every letter of the special financial operation would have been driven by, or at minimum endorsed, by her.
PMs sack chancellors all the time...
But Truss knew all about KK's policies and may even have suggested some of them (see once again the article in the Sunday Times I posted on both Sunday and last night).
Which means she is too tied to these policies for her to sack KK without the response hurting her as well.
Some interesting points being made on twitter, that so many of Kwarteng's friends and former colleagues are making a fortune shorting the pound...
Is there any evidence for that or just Twitter being Twitter?
Yesterday there were people on Twitter being quoted here making that point about people who had made "bullish" bets on the pound, ie they expected the pound to rise and then Tweeters claim they're making a fortune from shorting it when the opposite is true.
Didn't see that. Did see widespread reports that the markets had priced in a BofE interest rate rise this week. When the BofE announced they wouldn't hesitate to act next month, the pound tanked again...
I don't get how Kwarteng didn't anticipate the market reaction to his budget ? Say McDonnell had put out such a budget (With incontinent spending instead of tax cuts for instance), he'd have realised the market reaction in about 5 seconds. But with his own budget he seems to have completely and utterly missed the (Predictable) market reaction. It's unfathomable for such an intelligent man, the only explanation is that Kwarteng got so very very high on his own supply.
They must have genuinely believed that the market reaction would be along the lines of: "Fantastic! The UK is now a place where we can get filthy rich and the government are on our side. London is going to boom. Let's all pile in."
To be honest, I wouldn't have been that surprised if that had been the reaction, but clearly the fiscal credibility of the UK was more vulnerable and has been the determining factor.
I wonder if that might have been the reaction without the additional rate tax cut. The bankers bonus cap being removed was the free (I think !) economic decision that simply brings in more cost free revenue.
Morning all! I know we are all enjoying the series of unfortunate events, but the good news is there are so many more to come!
After the Truss-Kwarteng pact blew the safeties that stopped the economy sliding into the pit, we have had a weekend of "this is fine", then "no comment", and now "we won't hesitate to act next month".
It has been suggested that its helpful to the Tories that parliament isn't sitting, but I disagree. Instead of a barracking in the Commons, instead its the Tory Party Conference!!!
The current crisis has been turbocharged by a lack of confidence in the TK pact policies. Because they are fucking mental. So next week we get to watch whilst Truss and Kwarteng and their inner circle of spivs go on stage in front of an audience whose average age is also their IQ.
Kwarteng is truly awful when speaking. Or even not speaking as we saw at the state funeral. He gurns and giggles and grimaces. What he is saying is fucking mental as I've already covered, but the way he says it makes it worse. We will get a coterie of spivs. Have no idea who Chief Sec is but we know they'll be a div. The last one Simon Clarke never seems to have a clue what day it is. Braverman will be on.
And then Truss. Who bless her has no idea how to do a speech. We had the Pork Markets idiocy. The This Is A Disgrace faux outrage. The endless Thatcher cosplay. So whilst we await her speech we can only imagine that the content, the tone and the presentation will be disastrous. Instead of markets getting assurance that the government is competent and listening, they will get a week of wazzocks and incontinents telling them they are wrong to be shorting Blighty. And oh yes, spot all the Tory donors who are all making a fortune shorting the pound!
Apologies to my genuinely Tory-supporting PB friends. Its all over. Even HY has given up, and rightly so. Because - and I don't say this often - @HYUFD called this absolutely right when he backed Sunak over Truss. She is the apocalpyse.
Question is- why did she get the job?
Was it because Conservative MPs and members bought in to her plans?
Or was it because Rishi had been mean to Boris and Penny was too woke?
How much is the Additional Rate rise/cut worth in £bn?
I think the estimate I saw yesterday was £2bn.
In reality it really is a tiny amount say compared to the cost of the Energy cap which all and sundry on this site wanted, yet this £2 billion tax cut to try and encourage growth is apparently bat shit crazy.
Its hard to see how reversing it would make any difference to the economy
It's the politics Nerys. The politics of envy, and we are an envious peasantry.
Seems pretty unlikely that the international capital markets are swayed by "the politics of envy". They just think the Chancellor has no credibility.
Just to note that William Hill (for example) are offering 6/5 Tories most seats at the next GE. Labour 4/6.
I think this is being generous to current Tory prospects. It needs a few more days, even a few weeks to see, but this may be a period in which it becomes beyond recovery for the Tories.
Though Labour also face risks. Hubris, adopting St Blair - who is still gravely distrusted on many sides, a less than outstanding shadow CoE; the left are still around and capable of ensuring they can't win if they put their combined mind to it. A winter of discontent is inevitable. The question is who wins and who loses from it.
I think the only danger to labour is hubris which we see on here almost daily and a smug attitude
The wiser heads in labour keep a more sensible and quietly confident manner as they know hubris and smug attitudes are not what is required just now
I think labour are very likely to even achieve a majority but must not take anything for granted
I doubt anyone in the higher echelons of the Labour Party are taking victory for granted. Quite the reverse, and Starmer's personal ratings are still very, very poor. Doubtless Labour are aware their support is soft and that a change to the right leader (Johnson?) and the Conservatives are back in the driving seat.
If you look back to 1997, the New Labour grandees believed defeat was a possibility all the way to election day. That was a lesson learned at the Sheffield Rally in 1992. I doubt we will see a "Sheffield" today.
Labour will sensibly only target Tory seats at the next election.
They're abandoning Scotland?
Or do you mean they're going to ignore the yellow taxi?
Without wishing to sound like Stuart, it is not likely they will win many seats in Scotland at the moment. They would be better off targeting seats in the North, Wales and the Midlands.
A rising tide lifts all ships. If they're looking like getting a majority, they'll make gains in Scotland too.
Labour aren't rising. The Tories are going down the drain.
Labour are rising. Two recent polls on 45% - including YouGov last night.
I'll rephrase it. I don't think Labour are doing much positive that would see them make gains from the SNP. Yes their polling is rising but I put that down to despair at the Tories, not love for Labour.
And I don't see how KK goes but Truss survives. Every letter of the special financial operation would have been driven by, or at minimum endorsed, by her.
PMs sack chancellors all the time...
But Truss knew all about KK's policies and may even have suggested some of them (see once again the article in the Sunday Times I posted on both Sunday and last night).
Which means she is too tied to these policies for her to sack KK without the response hurting her as well.
Some interesting points being made on twitter, that so many of Kwarteng's friends and former colleagues are making a fortune shorting the pound...
Who said deliberately? The Truss - Kwarteng pact genuinely believes in this policy direction. Absolute zealots. But TK have been telling everyone publicly and hedgies privately what they are doing.
Hedgies are absolute zealots for money. They hear what TK are doing, and massively short sterling knowing that TK are fucking mental. Kerching! In any market calamity there is a fortune to be made.
Then what's the relevance of being "Kwarteng's friends and former colleagues"? Are his enemies and people who've never met him not capable of making the same trades?
Just to note that William Hill (for example) are offering 6/5 Tories most seats at the next GE. Labour 4/6.
I think this is being generous to current Tory prospects. It needs a few more days, even a few weeks to see, but this may be a period in which it becomes beyond recovery for the Tories.
Though Labour also face risks. Hubris, adopting St Blair - who is still gravely distrusted on many sides, a less than outstanding shadow CoE; the left are still around and capable of ensuring they can't win if they put their combined mind to it. A winter of discontent is inevitable. The question is who wins and who loses from it.
I think the only danger to labour is hubris which we see on here almost daily and a smug attitude
The wiser heads in labour keep a more sensible and quietly confident manner as they know hubris and smug attitudes are not what is required just now
I think labour are very likely to even achieve a majority but must not take anything for granted
Could you cite any smugness from any Labour supporter on here or elsewhere? I must have missed it.
We're hopeful, but far from smug. Much water to pass under the bridge yet.
And I don't see how KK goes but Truss survives. Every letter of the special financial operation would have been driven by, or at minimum endorsed, by her.
PMs sack chancellors all the time...
But Truss knew all about KK's policies and may even have suggested some of them (see once again the article in the Sunday Times I posted on both Sunday and last night).
Which means she is too tied to these policies for her to sack KK without the response hurting her as well.
Some interesting points being made on twitter, that so many of Kwarteng's friends and former colleagues are making a fortune shorting the pound...
Is there any evidence for that or just Twitter being Twitter?
Yesterday there were people on Twitter being quoted here making that point about people who had made "bullish" bets on the pound, ie they expected the pound to rise and then Tweeters claim they're making a fortune from shorting it when the opposite is true.
Didn't see that. Did see widespread reports that the markets had priced in a BofE interest rate rise this week. When the BofE announced they wouldn't hesitate to act next month, the pound tanked again...
Yes, the BoE's weakness in all this has been the oddest thing. They're consistently raising rates by less than the Fed, and if you've nothing to say they shouldn't have pre-briefed there'd be a statement with nothing to say in it.
I'm talking about reports circulating on Twitter yesterday quoting that pre-mini statement that funds had placed "bullish" bets on the pound and Tweeters claiming that meant they were raking it in. Err, no, anyone who placed a bullish bet on the pound pre-mini statement would have lost money.
Talking about negativity. The thread headers is just wishful thinking.
Talk about pot and kettle. From the most negative poster on the site.
I think he's right that it is wishful thinking, don't forget how much nonsense Boris put the country and party through before he was finally moved on. The next General Election arrives before that point hits for Truss. Her chancellor has made an error on a budget, it's not going to trigger a mass of letters.
There is only a slim chance of Truss going before the GE imo. It's a lay at current prices.
Talking about negativity. The thread headers is just wishful thinking.
Talk about pot and kettle. From the most negative poster on the site.
I think he's right that it is wishful thinking, don't forget how much nonsense Boris put the country and party through before he was finally moved on. The next General Election arrives before that point hits for Truss. Her chancellor has made an error on a budget, it's not going to trigger a mass of letters.
Well of course it is, but it is just a thread header for discussion. We don't have to agree with it. All of us will disagree with many headers, but Squareroot2 just constantly whines without putting up counter arguments. Other posters from the right here post constructively.. I am someone who is sympathetic to various views from the right because of my small state views, but someone like Squaresum2 does all from the right a disservice by being so unpleasant.
Despite all the excitability on here, particularly from disappointed PB Tories, I just can't see any way that the Tories don't go into the next GE with Truss as leader and Kwarteng as CotE.
Truss can't sack Kwarteng, as they are ideologically joined at the hip and it would immediately trash her economic 'Britannia Unchained' vision. And frankly, sacking a Chancellor after such a short time would be seen, rightly, as ludicrous.
If Tory MPs defenestrated Truss, the chances of a Labour government would switch from likely to almost certain. Who would vote for a party that is so chaotic that it keeps switching leader? I think the price of defenestrating Truss would be an immediate GE.
So all they can do is cross their fingers and hope. A lot can happen in two years. As a Labour man, I still don't think the next GE is in the bag - there's a lot of fingernails still to be bitten before I relax.
It is more likely than not that Truss is PM at the election with Kwarteng as Chancellor. But - and its a quickly growing but - there is a sizeable minority argument why they won't be: 1. Truss wants to be PM. She can ditch Kamikaze if doing that saves her job. Just watch her 2. She already claims other people wrote the bits people don't like in Britannia Unchained 3. If MPs decide to move on Truss, Kwarteng will be offered as a sacrifice 4. If that isn't enough, then *can* remove her and justify why. If she stays they not only get smashed at the election, they destroy party reputation. So even if a removal and install of Sunak is bad, it may be the least-worst option. 5. There is no chance of an early GE unless the PM wants one. Even if the public react badly to yet another PM, the party has a big majority and the new PM can plead for time.
That we are even discussing this in the same months that Truss ascended to the throne is bonkers. Gloriously so. Love politics!
I don't get how Kwarteng didn't anticipate the market reaction to his budget ? Say McDonnell had put out such a budget (With incontinent spending instead of tax cuts for instance), he'd have realised the market reaction in about 5 seconds. But with his own budget he seems to have completely and utterly missed the (Predictable) market reaction. It's unfathomable for such an intelligent man, the only explanation is that Kwarteng got so very very high on his own supply.
They must have genuinely believed that the market reaction would be along the lines of: "Fantastic! The UK is now a place where we can get filthy rich and the government are on our side. London is going to boom. Let's all pile in."
To be honest, I wouldn't have been that surprised if that had been the reaction, but clearly the fiscal credibility of the UK was more vulnerable and has been the determining factor.
I wonder if that might have been the reaction without the additional rate tax cut. The bankers bonus cap being removed was the free (I think !) economic decision that simply brings in more cost free revenue.
I'm worried based on Labour's reaction that they think it would have been ok to do the 90% of the unfunded income tax cuts that were for median voters, just not the 10% that could generate extra economic activity moving to the UK.
And I don't see how KK goes but Truss survives. Every letter of the special financial operation would have been driven by, or at minimum endorsed, by her.
PMs sack chancellors all the time...
But Truss knew all about KK's policies and may even have suggested some of them (see once again the article in the Sunday Times I posted on both Sunday and last night).
Which means she is too tied to these policies for her to sack KK without the response hurting her as well.
Some interesting points being made on twitter, that so many of Kwarteng's friends and former colleagues are making a fortune shorting the pound...
Who said deliberately? The Truss - Kwarteng pact genuinely believes in this policy direction. Absolute zealots. But TK have been telling everyone publicly and hedgies privately what they are doing.
Hedgies are absolute zealots for money. They hear what TK are doing, and massively short sterling knowing that TK are fucking mental. Kerching! In any market calamity there is a fortune to be made.
Then what's the relevance of being "Kwarteng's friends and former colleagues"? Are his enemies and people who've never met him not capable of making the same trades?
Kwarteng is a hedgie. Telling his hedgie mates what he is about to do is insider trading. Even if they operate just inside the law, it reinforces their drive to short the pound.
The leader of the CDU in Germany has called Ukrainian refugees "benefit tourists" and accused them of milking the system by travelling back and forth between Germany and Ukraine.
Labour will sensibly only target Tory seats at the next election.
They're abandoning Scotland?
Or do you mean they're going to ignore the yellow taxi?
Without wishing to sound like Stuart, it is not likely they will win many seats in Scotland at the moment. They would be better off targeting seats in the North, Wales and the Midlands.
A rising tide lifts all ships. If they're looking like getting a majority, they'll make gains in Scotland too.
Labour aren't rising. The Tories are going down the drain.
Labour are rising. Two recent polls on 45% - including YouGov last night.
I'll rephrase it. I don't think Labour are doing much positive that would see them make gains from the SNP. Yes their polling is rising but I put that down to despair at the Tories, not love for Labour.
I think Labour are breaking through the "sensible barrier". That is, there is a barrier to people voting for them based on the more.... fun types in the party. Starmer had repeatedly put them, fairly gently, back in their boxes.
Which is why they are polling about 40% - this is well out of the core vote and a fair way into the "middle of the road, I'm not ideological, want a quiet life and the garbage collected" political grouping.
And I don't see how KK goes but Truss survives. Every letter of the special financial operation would have been driven by, or at minimum endorsed, by her.
PMs sack chancellors all the time...
But Truss knew all about KK's policies and may even have suggested some of them (see once again the article in the Sunday Times I posted on both Sunday and last night).
Which means she is too tied to these policies for her to sack KK without the response hurting her as well.
Some interesting points being made on twitter, that so many of Kwarteng's friends and former colleagues are making a fortune shorting the pound...
Who said deliberately? The Truss - Kwarteng pact genuinely believes in this policy direction. Absolute zealots. But TK have been telling everyone publicly and hedgies privately what they are doing.
Hedgies are absolute zealots for money. They hear what TK are doing, and massively short sterling knowing that TK are fucking mental. Kerching! In any market calamity there is a fortune to be made.
Then what's the relevance of being "Kwarteng's friends and former colleagues"? Are his enemies and people who've never met him not capable of making the same trades?
Kwarteng is a hedgie. Telling his hedgie mates what he is about to do is insider trading. Even if they operate just inside the law, it reinforces their drive to short the pound.
This is not an "interesting point" but baseless innuendo.
The leader of the CDU in Germany has called Ukrainian refugees "benefit tourists" and accused them of milking the system by travelling back and forth between Germany and Ukraine.
I don't get how Kwarteng didn't anticipate the market reaction to his budget ? Say McDonnell had put out such a budget (With incontinent spending instead of tax cuts for instance), he'd have realised the market reaction in about 5 seconds. But with his own budget he seems to have completely and utterly missed the (Predictable) market reaction. It's unfathomable for such an intelligent man, the only explanation is that Kwarteng got so very very high on his own supply.
They must have genuinely believed that the market reaction would be along the lines of: "Fantastic! The UK is now a place where we can get filthy rich and the government are on our side. London is going to boom. Let's all pile in."
To be honest, I wouldn't have been that surprised if that had been the reaction, but clearly the fiscal credibility of the UK was more vulnerable and has been the determining factor.
I wonder if that might have been the reaction without the additional rate tax cut. The bankers bonus cap being removed was the free (I think !) economic decision that simply brings in more cost free revenue.
I'm worried based on Labour's reaction that they think it would have been ok to do the 90% of the unfunded income tax cuts that were for median voters, just not the 10% that could generate extra economic activity moving to the UK.
The only tax cut that stands a chance of encouraging extra economic activity to the UK is CT remaining at 19%, and even that is highly contested - there's plenty of evidence to suggest a higher rate with narrower base and targeted incentives (per Sunak and Labour policy) is better than low rate but wide base.
If you want to get ultra-rich individuals to move to the UK and invest here then the 45% rate is pretty irrelevant, it's taxation of things like carried interest and the non-dom regime. But again, those are also highly suspect areas in terms of the type of "investment" they bring.
By the way we are struggling with the maths on the £2bn value of the 45% cut. The stats we've seen on how much total tax is paid at the higher rate band (around £80bn) would imply the 5% is more like £9bn. A bit of a mystery hidden somewhere in the accounting. That's where Treasury and OBR numbers are sorely needed.
Talking about negativity. The thread headers is just wishful thinking.
Talk about pot and kettle. From the most negative poster on the site.
You are deluded. 90pc plus of comments on here are negative about the Tories including the thread headers, barely anything about Labour unless it's spinning about starmer looking presidential. I think we need to look back at these threads in ten yrs time and laugh at the prepeosterousness of some of the Labour leaning comments.
I don't get how Kwarteng didn't anticipate the market reaction to his budget ? Say McDonnell had put out such a budget (With incontinent spending instead of tax cuts for instance), he'd have realised the market reaction in about 5 seconds. But with his own budget he seems to have completely and utterly missed the (Predictable) market reaction. It's unfathomable for such an intelligent man, the only explanation is that Kwarteng got so very very high on his own supply.
I do wonder if some in the Con leadership (Truss, Kwasi, JRM, Sue-Ellen to name four) are actually slightly mad.
And I don't see how KK goes but Truss survives. Every letter of the special financial operation would have been driven by, or at minimum endorsed, by her.
PMs sack chancellors all the time...
But Truss knew all about KK's policies and may even have suggested some of them (see once again the article in the Sunday Times I posted on both Sunday and last night).
Which means she is too tied to these policies for her to sack KK without the response hurting her as well.
Some interesting points being made on twitter, that so many of Kwarteng's friends and former colleagues are making a fortune shorting the pound...
Who said deliberately? The Truss - Kwarteng pact genuinely believes in this policy direction. Absolute zealots. But TK have been telling everyone publicly and hedgies privately what they are doing.
Hedgies are absolute zealots for money. They hear what TK are doing, and massively short sterling knowing that TK are fucking mental. Kerching! In any market calamity there is a fortune to be made.
Then what's the relevance of being "Kwarteng's friends and former colleagues"? Are his enemies and people who've never met him not capable of making the same trades?
Once the borrowing to finance the price support cap for energy became policy, the pound was only going to head down. The tax stuff is just a cherry on that cake.
That's not a bet, that's simply economic gravity at work.
I don't get how Kwarteng didn't anticipate the market reaction to his budget ? Say McDonnell had put out such a budget (With incontinent spending instead of tax cuts for instance), he'd have realised the market reaction in about 5 seconds. But with his own budget he seems to have completely and utterly missed the (Predictable) market reaction. It's unfathomable for such an intelligent man, the only explanation is that Kwarteng got so very very high on his own supply.
I do wonder if some in the Con leadership (Truss, Kwasi, JRM, Sue-Ellen to name four) are actually slightly mad.
Not as mad as the remaining handful of Tory rampers on here:
And I don't see how KK goes but Truss survives. Every letter of the special financial operation would have been driven by, or at minimum endorsed, by her.
PMs sack chancellors all the time...
But Truss knew all about KK's policies and may even have suggested some of them (see once again the article in the Sunday Times I posted on both Sunday and last night).
Which means she is too tied to these policies for her to sack KK without the response hurting her as well.
Some interesting points being made on twitter, that so many of Kwarteng's friends and former colleagues are making a fortune shorting the pound...
Who said deliberately? The Truss - Kwarteng pact genuinely believes in this policy direction. Absolute zealots. But TK have been telling everyone publicly and hedgies privately what they are doing.
Hedgies are absolute zealots for money. They hear what TK are doing, and massively short sterling knowing that TK are fucking mental. Kerching! In any market calamity there is a fortune to be made.
Then what's the relevance of being "Kwarteng's friends and former colleagues"? Are his enemies and people who've never met him not capable of making the same trades?
Kwarteng is a hedgie. Telling his hedgie mates what he is about to do is insider trading. Even if they operate just inside the law, it reinforces their drive to short the pound.
Are you accusing them of believing Kwarteng was mental, from publicly available information, and acting accordingly?
Or are you accusing the Chancellor of engaging in insider trading?
The latter is an incredibly serious baseless allegation and is surely against @PBModerator rules to make such an allegation of criminality without evidence.
Alan Johnson and Alastair Campbell out batting for Labour this morning. Extraordinary how stale old fashioned and out of touch the Tories are starting to look.
While we're talking about "old and stale" isn't is also extraordinary that these old Blair-era dinosaurs are the best Labour's got to do the media rounds?
I don't get how Kwarteng didn't anticipate the market reaction to his budget ? Say McDonnell had put out such a budget (With incontinent spending instead of tax cuts for instance), he'd have realised the market reaction in about 5 seconds. But with his own budget he seems to have completely and utterly missed the (Predictable) market reaction. It's unfathomable for such an intelligent man, the only explanation is that Kwarteng got so very very high on his own supply.
I do wonder if some in the Con leadership (Truss, Kwasi, JRM, Sue-Ellen to name four) are actually slightly mad.
Not as mad as the remaining handful of Tory rampers on here:
WE'RE RIGHT, EVERYONE ELSE IS WRONG
What's wrong with that?
If you can keep your heads, while those around you are losing theirs ...
And I don't see how KK goes but Truss survives. Every letter of the special financial operation would have been driven by, or at minimum endorsed, by her.
PMs sack chancellors all the time...
But Truss knew all about KK's policies and may even have suggested some of them (see once again the article in the Sunday Times I posted on both Sunday and last night).
Which means she is too tied to these policies for her to sack KK without the response hurting her as well.
Some interesting points being made on twitter, that so many of Kwarteng's friends and former colleagues are making a fortune shorting the pound...
Who said deliberately? The Truss - Kwarteng pact genuinely believes in this policy direction. Absolute zealots. But TK have been telling everyone publicly and hedgies privately what they are doing.
Hedgies are absolute zealots for money. They hear what TK are doing, and massively short sterling knowing that TK are fucking mental. Kerching! In any market calamity there is a fortune to be made.
Then what's the relevance of being "Kwarteng's friends and former colleagues"? Are his enemies and people who've never met him not capable of making the same trades?
Kwarteng is a hedgie. Telling his hedgie mates what he is about to do is insider trading. Even if they operate just inside the law, it reinforces their drive to short the pound.
This is not an "interesting point" but baseless innuendo.
It was the basis for a Sunday Times article last weekend, so it's not entirely baseless, even if it is innuendo. The trades a week ahead of the 'fiscal event' may well be entirely coincidence, of course. But the optics of those who previously employed Kwarteng, and helped finance Truss's leadership campaign shorting the pound are sub-optimal, at the very best.
And I don't see how KK goes but Truss survives. Every letter of the special financial operation would have been driven by, or at minimum endorsed, by her.
PMs sack chancellors all the time...
But Truss knew all about KK's policies and may even have suggested some of them (see once again the article in the Sunday Times I posted on both Sunday and last night).
Which means she is too tied to these policies for her to sack KK without the response hurting her as well.
Some interesting points being made on twitter, that so many of Kwarteng's friends and former colleagues are making a fortune shorting the pound...
Who said deliberately? The Truss - Kwarteng pact genuinely believes in this policy direction. Absolute zealots. But TK have been telling everyone publicly and hedgies privately what they are doing.
Hedgies are absolute zealots for money. They hear what TK are doing, and massively short sterling knowing that TK are fucking mental. Kerching! In any market calamity there is a fortune to be made.
Ex-Hedgie Sunak warns that if Truss’ policies happen then the markets will rip the backside out of the UK.
Truss’ policies happen.
Hedgies make hay at the country’s expense.
People are surprised.
Daily mail complain about the Evil hedgies and traders who have just benefited from tax cut and bonus freedom that the Daily Mail were cheering a few days ago.
And I don't see how KK goes but Truss survives. Every letter of the special financial operation would have been driven by, or at minimum endorsed, by her.
PMs sack chancellors all the time...
But Truss knew all about KK's policies and may even have suggested some of them (see once again the article in the Sunday Times I posted on both Sunday and last night).
Which means she is too tied to these policies for her to sack KK without the response hurting her as well.
Some interesting points being made on twitter, that so many of Kwarteng's friends and former colleagues are making a fortune shorting the pound...
Who said deliberately? The Truss - Kwarteng pact genuinely believes in this policy direction. Absolute zealots. But TK have been telling everyone publicly and hedgies privately what they are doing.
Hedgies are absolute zealots for money. They hear what TK are doing, and massively short sterling knowing that TK are fucking mental. Kerching! In any market calamity there is a fortune to be made.
Then what's the relevance of being "Kwarteng's friends and former colleagues"? Are his enemies and people who've never met him not capable of making the same trades?
Once the borrowing to finance the price support cap for energy became policy, the pound was only going to head down. The tax stuff is just a cherry on that cake.
That's not a bet, that's simply economic gravity at work.
This. The extra economic stimulus was something like 5% of national income on top of the existing Sunak deficit. When rates are going up, locals and foreigners aren't going to finance that scale of extra sterling borrowing for free.
Just to note that William Hill (for example) are offering 6/5 Tories most seats at the next GE. Labour 4/6.
I think this is being generous to current Tory prospects. It needs a few more days, even a few weeks to see, but this may be a period in which it becomes beyond recovery for the Tories.
Though Labour also face risks. Hubris, adopting St Blair - who is still gravely distrusted on many sides, a less than outstanding shadow CoE; the left are still around and capable of ensuring they can't win if they put their combined mind to it. A winter of discontent is inevitable. The question is who wins and who loses from it.
I think the only danger to labour is hubris which we see on here almost daily and a smug attitude
The wiser heads in labour keep a more sensible and quietly confident manner as they know hubris and smug attitudes are not what is required just now
I think labour are very likely to even achieve a majority but must not take anything for granted
Could you cite any smugness from any Labour supporter on here or elsewhere? I must have missed it.
We're hopeful, but far from smug. Much water to pass under the bridge yet.
Have you seen anything from Correct Horse Battery (the third) recently? He was spamming the comments smugly for most of yesterday.
Talking about negativity. The thread headers is just wishful thinking.
Talk about pot and kettle. From the most negative poster on the site.
You are deluded. 90pc plus of comments on here are negative about the Tories including the thread headers, barely anything about Labour unless it's spinning about starmer looking presidential. I think we need to look back at these threads in ten yrs time and laugh at the prepeosterousness of some of the Labour leaning comments.
There are more right-leaning posters on here than left-leaning posters, I think, with many in the centre. Not many dedicated Labour supporters at all.
And most of the negative comments on the current Tory regime are from right-leaning posters. Us lefties are just sitting back and enjoying it.
And I don't see how KK goes but Truss survives. Every letter of the special financial operation would have been driven by, or at minimum endorsed, by her.
PMs sack chancellors all the time...
But Truss knew all about KK's policies and may even have suggested some of them (see once again the article in the Sunday Times I posted on both Sunday and last night).
Which means she is too tied to these policies for her to sack KK without the response hurting her as well.
Some interesting points being made on twitter, that so many of Kwarteng's friends and former colleagues are making a fortune shorting the pound...
Who said deliberately? The Truss - Kwarteng pact genuinely believes in this policy direction. Absolute zealots. But TK have been telling everyone publicly and hedgies privately what they are doing.
Hedgies are absolute zealots for money. They hear what TK are doing, and massively short sterling knowing that TK are fucking mental. Kerching! In any market calamity there is a fortune to be made.
Ex-Hedgie Sunak warns that if Truss’ policies happen then the markets will rip the backside out of the UK.
Truss’ policies happen.
Hedgies make hay at the country’s expense.
People are surprised.
Daily mail complain about the Evil hedgies and traders who have just benefited from tax cut and bonus freedom that the Daily Mail were cheering a few days ago.
I know. Its a crime. PB Moderator must step in and stop defaming the poor chancellor by reporting what he said and did. He has been so misrepresented.
The leader of the CDU in Germany has called Ukrainian refugees "benefit tourists" and accused them of milking the system by travelling back and forth between Germany and Ukraine.
The SDP and CDU are both utterly contemptible in this conflict, and the build up to it.
What surprises me is that people are surprised at the way a large proportion of German's think and behave. They were the birthplace of Nazism, its in their nature unfortunately.
The leader of the CDU in Germany has called Ukrainian refugees "benefit tourists" and accused them of milking the system by travelling back and forth between Germany and Ukraine.
The SDP and CDU are both utterly contemptible in this conflict, and the build up to it.
It's cultural - and it's a chunk in both parties, not the whole of either party.
East Politics goes back to before Bismarck - make friends with Russia. In the modern era, Being A Good German means that the idea of conflict with Russia is an especial anathema - that puts you in the same box as the Kaiser and YouKnowWho.
So there is a reflexive twitch towards Russia. This is strengthened by the extreme commercialist view of foreign policy - that Germany must do what ever is good for exports.
The current situation with Ukraine means that people of these view see conflict with Russia and profound damage to German exports to a number of markets.
It's like Conservatives seeing a Conservative government spending like a drunk sailor, in the UK. "We don't do that"....
And I don't see how KK goes but Truss survives. Every letter of the special financial operation would have been driven by, or at minimum endorsed, by her.
PMs sack chancellors all the time...
But Truss knew all about KK's policies and may even have suggested some of them (see once again the article in the Sunday Times I posted on both Sunday and last night).
Which means she is too tied to these policies for her to sack KK without the response hurting her as well.
Some interesting points being made on twitter, that so many of Kwarteng's friends and former colleagues are making a fortune shorting the pound...
Who said deliberately? The Truss - Kwarteng pact genuinely believes in this policy direction. Absolute zealots. But TK have been telling everyone publicly and hedgies privately what they are doing.
Hedgies are absolute zealots for money. They hear what TK are doing, and massively short sterling knowing that TK are fucking mental. Kerching! In any market calamity there is a fortune to be made.
The only report from a journalist in a publication that I have seen about this said the opposite. That the hedge funds were tipped off about the chutzpah of the Special Budgetary Operation, and that they also believed it would lead to the pound rising - the hedge funds went long on the pound, not short.
It looks like there was an attempt to help the hedgies make money from market movements after the SBO, but that they were part of the same groupthink that misjudged the market reaction.
Just to note that William Hill (for example) are offering 6/5 Tories most seats at the next GE. Labour 4/6.
I think this is being generous to current Tory prospects. It needs a few more days, even a few weeks to see, but this may be a period in which it becomes beyond recovery for the Tories.
Though Labour also face risks. Hubris, adopting St Blair - who is still gravely distrusted on many sides, a less than outstanding shadow CoE; the left are still around and capable of ensuring they can't win if they put their combined mind to it. A winter of discontent is inevitable. The question is who wins and who loses from it.
I think the only danger to labour is hubris which we see on here almost daily and a smug attitude
The wiser heads in labour keep a more sensible and quietly confident manner as they know hubris and smug attitudes are not what is required just now
I think labour are very likely to even achieve a majority but must not take anything for granted
Could you cite any smugness from any Labour supporter on here or elsewhere? I must have missed it.
We're hopeful, but far from smug. Much water to pass under the bridge yet.
Have you seen anything from Correct Horse Battery (the third) recently? He was spamming the comments smugly for most of yesterday.
That's one. And CHB is, how can I put it, rather idiosyncratic.
And I don't see how KK goes but Truss survives. Every letter of the special financial operation would have been driven by, or at minimum endorsed, by her.
PMs sack chancellors all the time...
But Truss knew all about KK's policies and may even have suggested some of them (see once again the article in the Sunday Times I posted on both Sunday and last night).
Which means she is too tied to these policies for her to sack KK without the response hurting her as well.
Some interesting points being made on twitter, that so many of Kwarteng's friends and former colleagues are making a fortune shorting the pound...
Who said deliberately? The Truss - Kwarteng pact genuinely believes in this policy direction. Absolute zealots. But TK have been telling everyone publicly and hedgies privately what they are doing.
Hedgies are absolute zealots for money. They hear what TK are doing, and massively short sterling knowing that TK are fucking mental. Kerching! In any market calamity there is a fortune to be made.
Then what's the relevance of being "Kwarteng's friends and former colleagues"? Are his enemies and people who've never met him not capable of making the same trades?
Kwarteng is a hedgie. Telling his hedgie mates what he is about to do is insider trading. Even if they operate just inside the law, it reinforces their drive to short the pound.
This is not an "interesting point" but baseless innuendo.
It was the basis for a Sunday Times article last weekend, so it's not entirely baseless, even if it is innuendo. The trades a week ahead of the 'fiscal event' may well be entirely coincidence, of course. But the optics of those who previously employed Kwarteng, and helped finance Truss's leadership campaign shorting the pound are sub-optimal, at the very best.
Or it's more likely that they figured the Truss policies would be a disaster and bet accordingly. Hedgies exist to make money from these kinds of situations, wherever there is turmoil, a hedgie will be there making a mint from having predicted said turmoil.
The leader of the CDU in Germany has called Ukrainian refugees "benefit tourists" and accused them of milking the system by travelling back and forth between Germany and Ukraine.
The SDP and CDU are both utterly contemptible in this conflict, and the build up to it.
Germany in this conflict has been an interesting (and surprising) illustration of the issue Britain has faced in the years since Brexit.
Their politicians keep saying deeply unhelpful and frankly insulting things that give the impression Germany is at best an appeaser, at worst quietly sympathetic to Russia. A few of their actions - largely the vetoing of certain heavy weaponry deliveries - reinforce this feeling. Yet most of the rest of their actions have been quite radically supportive of Ukraine: they have delivered more weapons and aid than France or Italy (the latter has been the most feeble of the major European powers), they cancelled Nordstream 2, seized and nationalised Nordstream 1 and Rosneft assets and took a lot of refugees.
The words matter and those are what Ukrainians and other East Europeans see. That's equally why it's so frustrating seeing British politicians burning bridges by picking rhetorical fights with European countries and institutions, looking un-serious and not to be trusted in the process, whilst our actual actions remain pretty tame and friendly. Speaking loudly and carrying a small stick essentially.
Just to note that William Hill (for example) are offering 6/5 Tories most seats at the next GE. Labour 4/6.
I think this is being generous to current Tory prospects. It needs a few more days, even a few weeks to see, but this may be a period in which it becomes beyond recovery for the Tories.
Though Labour also face risks. Hubris, adopting St Blair - who is still gravely distrusted on many sides, a less than outstanding shadow CoE; the left are still around and capable of ensuring they can't win if they put their combined mind to it. A winter of discontent is inevitable. The question is who wins and who loses from it.
I think the only danger to labour is hubris which we see on here almost daily and a smug attitude
The wiser heads in labour keep a more sensible and quietly confident manner as they know hubris and smug attitudes are not what is required just now
I think labour are very likely to even achieve a majority but must not take anything for granted
“ I think the only danger to labour is hubris “
Spot on. They are currently on 200 seats with lots of work to do, so why is their conference so smiley and smug as hell and cocksure of government. Even if the winds in their sails, cheering a win before final whistle cheering goals before they have scored them is a dumb ass demeanour.
It actually shows something is wrong about them. Not professional, not cool headed enough perhaps.
And I don't see how KK goes but Truss survives. Every letter of the special financial operation would have been driven by, or at minimum endorsed, by her.
PMs sack chancellors all the time...
But Truss knew all about KK's policies and may even have suggested some of them (see once again the article in the Sunday Times I posted on both Sunday and last night).
Which means she is too tied to these policies for her to sack KK without the response hurting her as well.
Some interesting points being made on twitter, that so many of Kwarteng's friends and former colleagues are making a fortune shorting the pound...
Who said deliberately? The Truss - Kwarteng pact genuinely believes in this policy direction. Absolute zealots. But TK have been telling everyone publicly and hedgies privately what they are doing.
Hedgies are absolute zealots for money. They hear what TK are doing, and massively short sterling knowing that TK are fucking mental. Kerching! In any market calamity there is a fortune to be made.
Ex-Hedgie Sunak warns that if Truss’ policies happen then the markets will rip the backside out of the UK.
Truss’ policies happen.
Hedgies make hay at the country’s expense.
People are surprised.
Daily mail complain about the Evil hedgies and traders who have just benefited from tax cut and bonus freedom that the Daily Mail were cheering a few days ago.
I know. Its a crime. PB Moderator must step in and stop defaming the poor chancellor by reporting what he said and did. He has been so misrepresented.
You accused him of insider trading. That's a serious crime.
Taking a policy position that was public knowledge, or making an economic trade based on public domain information, is not insider trading and is not a crime.
The Times have not accused him of insider trading AFAIK. Only you have.
And I don't see how KK goes but Truss survives. Every letter of the special financial operation would have been driven by, or at minimum endorsed, by her.
PMs sack chancellors all the time...
But Truss knew all about KK's policies and may even have suggested some of them (see once again the article in the Sunday Times I posted on both Sunday and last night).
Which means she is too tied to these policies for her to sack KK without the response hurting her as well.
Some interesting points being made on twitter, that so many of Kwarteng's friends and former colleagues are making a fortune shorting the pound...
Who said deliberately? The Truss - Kwarteng pact genuinely believes in this policy direction. Absolute zealots. But TK have been telling everyone publicly and hedgies privately what they are doing.
Hedgies are absolute zealots for money. They hear what TK are doing, and massively short sterling knowing that TK are fucking mental. Kerching! In any market calamity there is a fortune to be made.
Ex-Hedgie Sunak warns that if Truss’ policies happen then the markets will rip the backside out of the UK.
Truss’ policies happen.
Hedgies make hay at the country’s expense.
People are surprised.
Daily mail complain about the Evil hedgies and traders who have just benefited from tax cut and bonus freedom that the Daily Mail were cheering a few days ago.
I know. Its a crime. PB Moderator must step in and stop defaming the poor chancellor by reporting what he said and did. He has been so misrepresented.
You insinuated that he gave inside information to his mates, and now you're saying that the whole world knew. Which is it?
The leader of the CDU in Germany has called Ukrainian refugees "benefit tourists" and accused them of milking the system by travelling back and forth between Germany and Ukraine.
The SDP and CDU are both utterly contemptible in this conflict, and the build up to it.
What surprises me is that people are surprised at the way a large proportion of German's think and behave. They were the birthplace of Nazism, its in their nature unfortunately.
Germany is sheltering about eight times as many Ukrainians as the UK. Cheap talk from a country whose Home Secretary is telling police to worry less about racism.
And I don't see how KK goes but Truss survives. Every letter of the special financial operation would have been driven by, or at minimum endorsed, by her.
PMs sack chancellors all the time...
But Truss knew all about KK's policies and may even have suggested some of them (see once again the article in the Sunday Times I posted on both Sunday and last night).
Which means she is too tied to these policies for her to sack KK without the response hurting her as well.
Some interesting points being made on twitter, that so many of Kwarteng's friends and former colleagues are making a fortune shorting the pound...
Who said deliberately? The Truss - Kwarteng pact genuinely believes in this policy direction. Absolute zealots. But TK have been telling everyone publicly and hedgies privately what they are doing.
Hedgies are absolute zealots for money. They hear what TK are doing, and massively short sterling knowing that TK are fucking mental. Kerching! In any market calamity there is a fortune to be made.
Then what's the relevance of being "Kwarteng's friends and former colleagues"? Are his enemies and people who've never met him not capable of making the same trades?
Once the borrowing to finance the price support cap for energy became policy, the pound was only going to head down. The tax stuff is just a cherry on that cake.
That's not a bet, that's simply economic gravity at work.
This. The extra economic stimulus was something like 5% of national income on top of the existing Sunak deficit. When rates are going up, locals and foreigners aren't going to finance that scale of extra sterling borrowing for free.
I don't understand the whole "secret information" thing.
Once I heard that they were going to intervene massively in the energy market to protect consumers, I moved to be in a situation to benefit from the pound going down.
Alan Johnson and Alastair Campbell out batting for Labour this morning. Extraordinary how stale old fashioned and out of touch the Tories are starting to look.
While we're talking about "old and stale" isn't is also extraordinary that these old Blair-era dinosaurs are the best Labour's got to do the media rounds?
Talk about being stuck in the past...
Well quite. Labour in 2022 isn't a patch on Labour in 1997.
Just to note that William Hill (for example) are offering 6/5 Tories most seats at the next GE. Labour 4/6.
I think this is being generous to current Tory prospects. It needs a few more days, even a few weeks to see, but this may be a period in which it becomes beyond recovery for the Tories.
Though Labour also face risks. Hubris, adopting St Blair - who is still gravely distrusted on many sides, a less than outstanding shadow CoE; the left are still around and capable of ensuring they can't win if they put their combined mind to it. A winter of discontent is inevitable. The question is who wins and who loses from it.
I think the only danger to labour is hubris which we see on here almost daily and a smug attitude
The wiser heads in labour keep a more sensible and quietly confident manner as they know hubris and smug attitudes are not what is required just now
I think labour are very likely to even achieve a majority but must not take anything for granted
“ I think the only danger to labour is hubris “
Spot on. They are currently on 200 seats with lots of work to do, so why is their conference so smiley and smug as hell and cocksure of government. Even if the winds in their sails, cheering a win before final whistle cheering goals before they have scored them is a dumb ass demeanour.
It actually shows something is wrong about them. Not professional, not cool headed enough perhaps.
Cool-headed enough for all the republicans at the party conference to stand for the national anthem and show no dissent.
Just to note that William Hill (for example) are offering 6/5 Tories most seats at the next GE. Labour 4/6.
I think this is being generous to current Tory prospects. It needs a few more days, even a few weeks to see, but this may be a period in which it becomes beyond recovery for the Tories.
Though Labour also face risks. Hubris, adopting St Blair - who is still gravely distrusted on many sides, a less than outstanding shadow CoE; the left are still around and capable of ensuring they can't win if they put their combined mind to it. A winter of discontent is inevitable. The question is who wins and who loses from it.
I think the only danger to labour is hubris which we see on here almost daily and a smug attitude
The wiser heads in labour keep a more sensible and quietly confident manner as they know hubris and smug attitudes are not what is required just now
I think labour are very likely to even achieve a majority but must not take anything for granted
“ I think the only danger to labour is hubris “
Spot on. They are currently on 200 seats with lots of work to do, so why is their conference so smiley and smug as hell and cocksure of government. Even if the winds in their sails, cheering a win before final whistle cheering goals before they have scored them is a dumb ass demeanour.
It actually shows something is wrong about them. Not professional, not cool headed enough perhaps.
Hubris is a major problem for any politician / party. The Sheffield Rally being a prime example of how to do it.
However, I don't see hubris in the clips I have seen coming out of Liverpool. They know the scale of the challenge, but they're starting to really believe they could do it.
With Mandy and Campbell reportedly shaping the narrative I expect we will be seeing criticism of Labour being too hesitant, not them being too bullish.
The leader of the CDU in Germany has called Ukrainian refugees "benefit tourists" and accused them of milking the system by travelling back and forth between Germany and Ukraine.
The SDP and CDU are both utterly contemptible in this conflict, and the build up to it.
What surprises me is that people are surprised at the way a large proportion of German's think and behave. They were the birthplace of Nazism, its in their nature unfortunately.
The leader of the CDU in Germany has called Ukrainian refugees "benefit tourists" and accused them of milking the system by travelling back and forth between Germany and Ukraine.
The SDP and CDU are both utterly contemptible in this conflict, and the build up to it.
What surprises me is that people are surprised at the way a large proportion of German's think and behave. They were the birthplace of Nazism, its in their nature unfortunately.
I think you will find that the very essence of Nazism is believing that certain faults are "in the nature, unfortunately" of whole national or ethnic groupings.
And I don't see how KK goes but Truss survives. Every letter of the special financial operation would have been driven by, or at minimum endorsed, by her.
PMs sack chancellors all the time...
But Truss knew all about KK's policies and may even have suggested some of them (see once again the article in the Sunday Times I posted on both Sunday and last night).
Which means she is too tied to these policies for her to sack KK without the response hurting her as well.
Some interesting points being made on twitter, that so many of Kwarteng's friends and former colleagues are making a fortune shorting the pound...
Who said deliberately? The Truss - Kwarteng pact genuinely believes in this policy direction. Absolute zealots. But TK have been telling everyone publicly and hedgies privately what they are doing.
Hedgies are absolute zealots for money. They hear what TK are doing, and massively short sterling knowing that TK are fucking mental. Kerching! In any market calamity there is a fortune to be made.
Then what's the relevance of being "Kwarteng's friends and former colleagues"? Are his enemies and people who've never met him not capable of making the same trades?
Kwarteng is a hedgie. Telling his hedgie mates what he is about to do is insider trading. Even if they operate just inside the law, it reinforces their drive to short the pound.
This is not an "interesting point" but baseless innuendo.
It was the basis for a Sunday Times article last weekend, so it's not entirely baseless, even if it is innuendo. The trades a week ahead of the 'fiscal event' may well be entirely coincidence, of course. But the optics of those who previously employed Kwarteng, and helped finance Truss's leadership campaign shorting the pound are sub-optimal, at the very best.
Or it's more likely that they figured the Truss policies would be a disaster and bet accordingly. Hedgies exist to make money from these kinds of situations, wherever there is turmoil, a hedgie will be there making a mint from having predicted said turmoil.
If one hedge fund makes money does there need to be a corresponding hedge fund on the other side of the deal who has lost?
And I don't see how KK goes but Truss survives. Every letter of the special financial operation would have been driven by, or at minimum endorsed, by her.
PMs sack chancellors all the time...
But Truss knew all about KK's policies and may even have suggested some of them (see once again the article in the Sunday Times I posted on both Sunday and last night).
Which means she is too tied to these policies for her to sack KK without the response hurting her as well.
Some interesting points being made on twitter, that so many of Kwarteng's friends and former colleagues are making a fortune shorting the pound...
Who said deliberately? The Truss - Kwarteng pact genuinely believes in this policy direction. Absolute zealots. But TK have been telling everyone publicly and hedgies privately what they are doing.
Hedgies are absolute zealots for money. They hear what TK are doing, and massively short sterling knowing that TK are fucking mental. Kerching! In any market calamity there is a fortune to be made.
Then what's the relevance of being "Kwarteng's friends and former colleagues"? Are his enemies and people who've never met him not capable of making the same trades?
Kwarteng is a hedgie. Telling his hedgie mates what he is about to do is insider trading. Even if they operate just inside the law, it reinforces their drive to short the pound.
Are you accusing them of believing Kwarteng was mental, from publicly available information, and acting accordingly?
Or are you accusing the Chancellor of engaging in insider trading?
The latter is an incredibly serious baseless allegation and is surely against @PBModerator rules to make such an allegation of criminality without evidence.
Oh do stop it with the 'tagging the moderator' nonsense. We're loose as a goose on here. Eg a poster could even in the heat of debate call Rebecca Long Bailey a 'filthy antisemite' and it'd be allowed.
Alan Johnson and Alastair Campbell out batting for Labour this morning. Extraordinary how stale old fashioned and out of touch the Tories are starting to look.
While we're talking about "old and stale" isn't is also extraordinary that these old Blair-era dinosaurs are the best Labour's got to do the media rounds?
Talk about being stuck in the past...
It's pick your decade time. Interesting dynamic.
The Tories are offering to take us back to the Thatcherite late 80s. We are replaying the period 1987-92. Labour are offering a trip back memory lane to the late 90s: a replay of 1997-2002. The sight of Campbell and co is quietly reassuring for many especially the Gen Xers who fondly remember that period.
Neither party really has a vision for the 2020s and 2030s, yet. Nor do the minor parties.
At the moment the 90s seems to be winning in the polls.
The leader of the CDU in Germany has called Ukrainian refugees "benefit tourists" and accused them of milking the system by travelling back and forth between Germany and Ukraine.
The SDP and CDU are both utterly contemptible in this conflict, and the build up to it.
What surprises me is that people are surprised at the way a large proportion of German's think and behave. They were the birthplace of Nazism, its in their nature unfortunately.
Germany is sheltering about eight times as many Ukrainians as the UK. Cheap talk from a country whose Home Secretary is telling police to worry less about racism.
So you are happy with what the CDU (a major political party in Germany) are saying about Ukrainians?
Are you happy with the way Germany has supported Ukraine in this war by forcing RAF flights to go around its airspace and providing very little in military aid?
And I don't see how KK goes but Truss survives. Every letter of the special financial operation would have been driven by, or at minimum endorsed, by her.
PMs sack chancellors all the time...
But Truss knew all about KK's policies and may even have suggested some of them (see once again the article in the Sunday Times I posted on both Sunday and last night).
Which means she is too tied to these policies for her to sack KK without the response hurting her as well.
Some interesting points being made on twitter, that so many of Kwarteng's friends and former colleagues are making a fortune shorting the pound...
Who said deliberately? The Truss - Kwarteng pact genuinely believes in this policy direction. Absolute zealots. But TK have been telling everyone publicly and hedgies privately what they are doing.
Hedgies are absolute zealots for money. They hear what TK are doing, and massively short sterling knowing that TK are fucking mental. Kerching! In any market calamity there is a fortune to be made.
Ex-Hedgie Sunak warns that if Truss’ policies happen then the markets will rip the backside out of the UK.
Truss’ policies happen.
Hedgies make hay at the country’s expense.
People are surprised.
Daily mail complain about the Evil hedgies and traders who have just benefited from tax cut and bonus freedom that the Daily Mail were cheering a few days ago.
I know. Its a crime. PB Moderator must step in and stop defaming the poor chancellor by reporting what he said and did. He has been so misrepresented.
You insinuated that he gave inside information to his mates, and now you're saying that the whole world knew. Which is it?
I would suggest @RochdalePioneers is unwise to make the allegations which, even if he thought it, is maybe better not openly expressed
The leader of the CDU in Germany has called Ukrainian refugees "benefit tourists" and accused them of milking the system by travelling back and forth between Germany and Ukraine.
The SDP and CDU are both utterly contemptible in this conflict, and the build up to it.
What surprises me is that people are surprised at the way a large proportion of German's think and behave. They were the birthplace of Nazism, its in their nature unfortunately.
Germany is sheltering about eight times as many Ukrainians as the UK. Cheap talk from a country whose Home Secretary is telling police to worry less about racism.
Largely due to proximity as I'm sure you have the brains to figure out for yourself.
And I don't see how KK goes but Truss survives. Every letter of the special financial operation would have been driven by, or at minimum endorsed, by her.
PMs sack chancellors all the time...
But Truss knew all about KK's policies and may even have suggested some of them (see once again the article in the Sunday Times I posted on both Sunday and last night).
Which means she is too tied to these policies for her to sack KK without the response hurting her as well.
Some interesting points being made on twitter, that so many of Kwarteng's friends and former colleagues are making a fortune shorting the pound...
Who said deliberately? The Truss - Kwarteng pact genuinely believes in this policy direction. Absolute zealots. But TK have been telling everyone publicly and hedgies privately what they are doing.
Hedgies are absolute zealots for money. They hear what TK are doing, and massively short sterling knowing that TK are fucking mental. Kerching! In any market calamity there is a fortune to be made.
Then what's the relevance of being "Kwarteng's friends and former colleagues"? Are his enemies and people who've never met him not capable of making the same trades?
Once the borrowing to finance the price support cap for energy became policy, the pound was only going to head down. The tax stuff is just a cherry on that cake.
That's not a bet, that's simply economic gravity at work.
This. The extra economic stimulus was something like 5% of national income on top of the existing Sunak deficit. When rates are going up, locals and foreigners aren't going to finance that scale of extra sterling borrowing for free.
I don't understand the whole "secret information" thing.
Once I heard that they were going to intervene massively in the energy market to protect consumers, I moved to be in a situation to benefit from the pound going down.
That's GCSE economics.
Exactly.
The pound going down is not a bad thing. It would be bad if they were trying to keep the pound up.
That was the mistake of Black Wednesday, not letting the pound freely float to its proper level.
The pound devaluing on Black Wednesday helped the British economy in the years ahead. The Lira remaining locked to the the Deutschemark via the Euro has deeply damaged the Italian economy.
A freely floating currency helps economies adjust to turmoil, by lowering when there are economic difficulties and so boosting competition and growth, or by rising when the economy is overheating, thus reducing inflation. It is not a machismo virility symbol to be kept as high as possible all the time.
And I don't see how KK goes but Truss survives. Every letter of the special financial operation would have been driven by, or at minimum endorsed, by her.
PMs sack chancellors all the time...
But Truss knew all about KK's policies and may even have suggested some of them (see once again the article in the Sunday Times I posted on both Sunday and last night).
Which means she is too tied to these policies for her to sack KK without the response hurting her as well.
Some interesting points being made on twitter, that so many of Kwarteng's friends and former colleagues are making a fortune shorting the pound...
Who said deliberately? The Truss - Kwarteng pact genuinely believes in this policy direction. Absolute zealots. But TK have been telling everyone publicly and hedgies privately what they are doing.
Hedgies are absolute zealots for money. They hear what TK are doing, and massively short sterling knowing that TK are fucking mental. Kerching! In any market calamity there is a fortune to be made.
Then what's the relevance of being "Kwarteng's friends and former colleagues"? Are his enemies and people who've never met him not capable of making the same trades?
Kwarteng is a hedgie. Telling his hedgie mates what he is about to do is insider trading. Even if they operate just inside the law, it reinforces their drive to short the pound.
This is not an "interesting point" but baseless innuendo.
It was the basis for a Sunday Times article last weekend, so it's not entirely baseless, even if it is innuendo. The trades a week ahead of the 'fiscal event' may well be entirely coincidence, of course. But the optics of those who previously employed Kwarteng, and helped finance Truss's leadership campaign shorting the pound are sub-optimal, at the very best.
Or it's more likely that they figured the Truss policies would be a disaster and bet accordingly. Hedgies exist to make money from these kinds of situations, wherever there is turmoil, a hedgie will be there making a mint from having predicted said turmoil.
Of course - I agree. But the innuendo isn't baseless; it's based on an interpretation, fanciful (likely) or not, of known facts.
It’s going to be fascinating watching the irresistible force of significantly higher borrowing costs (and the fiscal consequences) meet the immovable object of right wing ideology, in the context of dire poll ratings.
Their playbook dictates that they will now react by slashing the state. But can they get away with it?
I’d love to be a fly in the wall in 55 Tufton St.
The plan looks to me to be no action on public sector budgets at a time of 10% inflation. That squeeze will be in real terms much worse than any austerity period since the war. Right wing dogma met.
I am seriously looking at bringing forward my retirement, just doing the sums at to when the timing is most opportune.
That's the sort of thing that is really going to bugger public services. Not so much strikes as unfillable staffing gaps.
Two things to say on this - failing services like education, ambulances, a&e, transport can costs governments a pile of votes if approaching issues not nipped in the bud. The government need to keep an impression of strong functioning public services going until the election - yet teachers and doctors on PB have flagged up not just tte staffing issues but training behind the curve on arresting staffing issues before they get worse.
Way out of this monetary crisis slash the state? And when you slash the state to get some money, how long before you get some money? If Kwarsi started now, Starmer would get the money not Truss? Sometimes it costs money up front to slim the state, early retirement packages etc.
And I don't see how KK goes but Truss survives. Every letter of the special financial operation would have been driven by, or at minimum endorsed, by her.
PMs sack chancellors all the time...
But Truss knew all about KK's policies and may even have suggested some of them (see once again the article in the Sunday Times I posted on both Sunday and last night).
Which means she is too tied to these policies for her to sack KK without the response hurting her as well.
Some interesting points being made on twitter, that so many of Kwarteng's friends and former colleagues are making a fortune shorting the pound...
Who said deliberately? The Truss - Kwarteng pact genuinely believes in this policy direction. Absolute zealots. But TK have been telling everyone publicly and hedgies privately what they are doing.
Hedgies are absolute zealots for money. They hear what TK are doing, and massively short sterling knowing that TK are fucking mental. Kerching! In any market calamity there is a fortune to be made.
Then what's the relevance of being "Kwarteng's friends and former colleagues"? Are his enemies and people who've never met him not capable of making the same trades?
Kwarteng is a hedgie. Telling his hedgie mates what he is about to do is insider trading. Even if they operate just inside the law, it reinforces their drive to short the pound.
Are you accusing them of believing Kwarteng was mental, from publicly available information, and acting accordingly?
Or are you accusing the Chancellor of engaging in insider trading?
The latter is an incredibly serious baseless allegation and is surely against @PBModerator rules to make such an allegation of criminality without evidence.
Oh do stop it with the 'tagging the moderator' nonsense. We're loose as a goose on here. Eg a poster could even in the heat of debate call Rebecca Long Bailey a 'filthy antisemite' and it'd be allowed.
But Rebecca Long Bailey is a filthy antisemite, and being a filthy antisemite like Rebecca Long Bailey isn't against the law.
Insider trading is a crime, and PB Moderator has strict rules against accusing people of crimes. That's completely different.
People noticed a US anti-submarine warfare helicopter stationed seaward of Kaliningrad for the last several days. Was that watching for Russian sub movements that might interfere with sabotage of the pipeline, or perpetrate it?
And I don't see how KK goes but Truss survives. Every letter of the special financial operation would have been driven by, or at minimum endorsed, by her.
PMs sack chancellors all the time...
But Truss knew all about KK's policies and may even have suggested some of them (see once again the article in the Sunday Times I posted on both Sunday and last night).
Which means she is too tied to these policies for her to sack KK without the response hurting her as well.
Some interesting points being made on twitter, that so many of Kwarteng's friends and former colleagues are making a fortune shorting the pound...
Who said deliberately? The Truss - Kwarteng pact genuinely believes in this policy direction. Absolute zealots. But TK have been telling everyone publicly and hedgies privately what they are doing.
Hedgies are absolute zealots for money. They hear what TK are doing, and massively short sterling knowing that TK are fucking mental. Kerching! In any market calamity there is a fortune to be made.
Ex-Hedgie Sunak warns that if Truss’ policies happen then the markets will rip the backside out of the UK.
Truss’ policies happen.
Hedgies make hay at the country’s expense.
People are surprised.
Daily mail complain about the Evil hedgies and traders who have just benefited from tax cut and bonus freedom that the Daily Mail were cheering a few days ago.
I know. Its a crime. PB Moderator must step in and stop defaming the poor chancellor by reporting what he said and did. He has been so misrepresented.
You accused him of insider trading. That's a serious crime.
Taking a policy position that was public knowledge, or making an economic trade based on public domain information, is not insider trading and is not a crime.
The Times have not accused him of insider trading AFAIK. Only you have.
And I don't see how KK goes but Truss survives. Every letter of the special financial operation would have been driven by, or at minimum endorsed, by her.
PMs sack chancellors all the time...
But Truss knew all about KK's policies and may even have suggested some of them (see once again the article in the Sunday Times I posted on both Sunday and last night).
Which means she is too tied to these policies for her to sack KK without the response hurting her as well.
Some interesting points being made on twitter, that so many of Kwarteng's friends and former colleagues are making a fortune shorting the pound...
Who said deliberately? The Truss - Kwarteng pact genuinely believes in this policy direction. Absolute zealots. But TK have been telling everyone publicly and hedgies privately what they are doing.
Hedgies are absolute zealots for money. They hear what TK are doing, and massively short sterling knowing that TK are fucking mental. Kerching! In any market calamity there is a fortune to be made.
Then what's the relevance of being "Kwarteng's friends and former colleagues"? Are his enemies and people who've never met him not capable of making the same trades?
Kwarteng is a hedgie. Telling his hedgie mates what he is about to do is insider trading. Even if they operate just inside the law, it reinforces their drive to short the pound.
Are you accusing them of believing Kwarteng was mental, from publicly available information, and acting accordingly?
Or are you accusing the Chancellor of engaging in insider trading?
The latter is an incredibly serious baseless allegation and is surely against @PBModerator rules to make such an allegation of criminality without evidence.
Oh do stop it with the 'tagging the moderator' nonsense. We're loose as a goose on here. Eg a poster could even in the heat of debate call Rebecca Long Bailey a 'filthy antisemite' and it'd be allowed.
Especially when (a) public interest is a clear defence, (b) this story has been reported in the Sunday Times and elsewhere, and (c) the story has prompted calls for an FCA insider trading investigation which itself has been widely reported.
"Its libel" intones BR who as usual has no clue what he is talking about.
Alan Johnson and Alastair Campbell out batting for Labour this morning. Extraordinary how stale old fashioned and out of touch the Tories are starting to look.
While we're talking about "old and stale" isn't is also extraordinary that these old Blair-era dinosaurs are the best Labour's got to do the media rounds?
Talk about being stuck in the past...
Campbell 65 Johnson 72, younger than POTUS. I would think this is a deliberate reminder that Lab has been the party of government in living memory.
And I don't see how KK goes but Truss survives. Every letter of the special financial operation would have been driven by, or at minimum endorsed, by her.
PMs sack chancellors all the time...
But Truss knew all about KK's policies and may even have suggested some of them (see once again the article in the Sunday Times I posted on both Sunday and last night).
Which means she is too tied to these policies for her to sack KK without the response hurting her as well.
Some interesting points being made on twitter, that so many of Kwarteng's friends and former colleagues are making a fortune shorting the pound...
Who said deliberately? The Truss - Kwarteng pact genuinely believes in this policy direction. Absolute zealots. But TK have been telling everyone publicly and hedgies privately what they are doing.
Hedgies are absolute zealots for money. They hear what TK are doing, and massively short sterling knowing that TK are fucking mental. Kerching! In any market calamity there is a fortune to be made.
Ex-Hedgie Sunak warns that if Truss’ policies happen then the markets will rip the backside out of the UK.
Truss’ policies happen.
Hedgies make hay at the country’s expense.
People are surprised.
Daily mail complain about the Evil hedgies and traders who have just benefited from tax cut and bonus freedom that the Daily Mail were cheering a few days ago.
I know. Its a crime. PB Moderator must step in and stop defaming the poor chancellor by reporting what he said and did. He has been so misrepresented.
You insinuated that he gave inside information to his mates, and now you're saying that the whole world knew. Which is it?
I would suggest @RochdalePioneers is unwise to make the allegations which, even if he thought it, is maybe better not openly expressed
He didn't allege anything. Merely noted, as have many including national newspapers, an unfortunate coincidence regarding the Chancellor and his former employers and colleagues.
And I don't see how KK goes but Truss survives. Every letter of the special financial operation would have been driven by, or at minimum endorsed, by her.
PMs sack chancellors all the time...
But Truss knew all about KK's policies and may even have suggested some of them (see once again the article in the Sunday Times I posted on both Sunday and last night).
Which means she is too tied to these policies for her to sack KK without the response hurting her as well.
Some interesting points being made on twitter, that so many of Kwarteng's friends and former colleagues are making a fortune shorting the pound...
Who said deliberately? The Truss - Kwarteng pact genuinely believes in this policy direction. Absolute zealots. But TK have been telling everyone publicly and hedgies privately what they are doing.
Hedgies are absolute zealots for money. They hear what TK are doing, and massively short sterling knowing that TK are fucking mental. Kerching! In any market calamity there is a fortune to be made.
Ex-Hedgie Sunak warns that if Truss’ policies happen then the markets will rip the backside out of the UK.
Truss’ policies happen.
Hedgies make hay at the country’s expense.
People are surprised.
Daily mail complain about the Evil hedgies and traders who have just benefited from tax cut and bonus freedom that the Daily Mail were cheering a few days ago.
I know. Its a crime. PB Moderator must step in and stop defaming the poor chancellor by reporting what he said and did. He has been so misrepresented.
You accused him of insider trading. That's a serious crime.
Taking a policy position that was public knowledge, or making an economic trade based on public domain information, is not insider trading and is not a crime.
The Times have not accused him of insider trading AFAIK. Only you have.
That paragraph says nothing about insider trading, nor do the Standard or Guardian articles (Times article behind a paywall).
Placing shorts based on public domain information is not insider trading. To raise allegations of insider trading, not backed by any media, that's a different matter.
Though I'll leave it there. If you want to keep making the allegation and if the Moderators are OK with that, that's on you and them, but normally there's a clear line about allegations of criminality.
And I don't see how KK goes but Truss survives. Every letter of the special financial operation would have been driven by, or at minimum endorsed, by her.
PMs sack chancellors all the time...
But Truss knew all about KK's policies and may even have suggested some of them (see once again the article in the Sunday Times I posted on both Sunday and last night).
Which means she is too tied to these policies for her to sack KK without the response hurting her as well.
Some interesting points being made on twitter, that so many of Kwarteng's friends and former colleagues are making a fortune shorting the pound...
Who said deliberately? The Truss - Kwarteng pact genuinely believes in this policy direction. Absolute zealots. But TK have been telling everyone publicly and hedgies privately what they are doing.
Hedgies are absolute zealots for money. They hear what TK are doing, and massively short sterling knowing that TK are fucking mental. Kerching! In any market calamity there is a fortune to be made.
Then what's the relevance of being "Kwarteng's friends and former colleagues"? Are his enemies and people who've never met him not capable of making the same trades?
Once the borrowing to finance the price support cap for energy became policy, the pound was only going to head down. The tax stuff is just a cherry on that cake.
That's not a bet, that's simply economic gravity at work.
This. The extra economic stimulus was something like 5% of national income on top of the existing Sunak deficit. When rates are going up, locals and foreigners aren't going to finance that scale of extra sterling borrowing for free.
I don't understand the whole "secret information" thing.
Once I heard that they were going to intervene massively in the energy market to protect consumers, I moved to be in a situation to benefit from the pound going down.
That's GCSE economics.
Exactly.
The pound going down is not a bad thing. It would be bad if they were trying to keep the pound up.
That was the mistake of Black Wednesday, not letting the pound freely float to its proper level.
The pound devaluing on Black Wednesday helped the British economy in the years ahead. The Lira remaining locked to the the Deutschemark via the Euro has deeply damaged the Italian economy.
A freely floating currency helps economies adjust to turmoil, by lowering when there are economic difficulties and so boosting competition and growth, or by rising when the economy is overheating, thus reducing inflation. It is not a machismo virility symbol to be kept as high as possible all the time.
Tanking the pound is probably stupid.
If you announce that you are going to act in a way that tanks the pound, being surprised that pound tanks is definitely stupid.
I don't get how Kwarteng didn't anticipate the market reaction to his budget ? Say McDonnell had put out such a budget (With incontinent spending instead of tax cuts for instance), he'd have realised the market reaction in about 5 seconds. But with his own budget he seems to have completely and utterly missed the (Predictable) market reaction. It's unfathomable for such an intelligent man, the only explanation is that Kwarteng got so very very high on his own supply.
I do wonder if some in the Con leadership (Truss, Kwasi, JRM, Sue-Ellen to name four) are actually slightly mad.
And I don't see how KK goes but Truss survives. Every letter of the special financial operation would have been driven by, or at minimum endorsed, by her.
PMs sack chancellors all the time...
But Truss knew all about KK's policies and may even have suggested some of them (see once again the article in the Sunday Times I posted on both Sunday and last night).
Which means she is too tied to these policies for her to sack KK without the response hurting her as well.
Some interesting points being made on twitter, that so many of Kwarteng's friends and former colleagues are making a fortune shorting the pound...
Who said deliberately? The Truss - Kwarteng pact genuinely believes in this policy direction. Absolute zealots. But TK have been telling everyone publicly and hedgies privately what they are doing.
Hedgies are absolute zealots for money. They hear what TK are doing, and massively short sterling knowing that TK are fucking mental. Kerching! In any market calamity there is a fortune to be made.
Ex-Hedgie Sunak warns that if Truss’ policies happen then the markets will rip the backside out of the UK.
Truss’ policies happen.
Hedgies make hay at the country’s expense.
People are surprised.
Daily mail complain about the Evil hedgies and traders who have just benefited from tax cut and bonus freedom that the Daily Mail were cheering a few days ago.
I know. Its a crime. PB Moderator must step in and stop defaming the poor chancellor by reporting what he said and did. He has been so misrepresented.
You insinuated that he gave inside information to his mates, and now you're saying that the whole world knew. Which is it?
I would suggest @RochdalePioneers is unwise to make the allegations which, even if he thought it, is maybe better not openly expressed
He didn't allege anything. Merely noted, as have many including national newspapers, an unfortunate coincidence regarding the Chancellor and his former employers and colleagues.
"Telling his hedgie mates what he is about to do is insider trading" goes beyond noting a coincidence and beyond any of the media reports.
Talking about negativity. The thread headers is just wishful thinking.
Talk about pot and kettle. From the most negative poster on the site.
You are deluded. 90pc plus of comments on here are negative about the Tories including the thread headers, barely anything about Labour unless it's spinning about starmer looking presidential. I think we need to look back at these threads in ten yrs time and laugh at the prepeosterousness of some of the Labour leaning comments.
That might well be correct, but at least there is argument, discussion and humour and not your constant bile.
Do you not wonder why I and others who are not from the left have a go at you? I have never voted Labour in my life (67). Your constant bile does nothing in progressing the right of centre cause which I would like to hear. You just come over as a very sad bitter person. Try looking at the others who post from the right on here who are constructive and entertaining. I listed a few the other day.
And if you don't like it why do you bother coming here?
And I don't see how KK goes but Truss survives. Every letter of the special financial operation would have been driven by, or at minimum endorsed, by her.
PMs sack chancellors all the time...
But Truss knew all about KK's policies and may even have suggested some of them (see once again the article in the Sunday Times I posted on both Sunday and last night).
Which means she is too tied to these policies for her to sack KK without the response hurting her as well.
Some interesting points being made on twitter, that so many of Kwarteng's friends and former colleagues are making a fortune shorting the pound...
Who said deliberately? The Truss - Kwarteng pact genuinely believes in this policy direction. Absolute zealots. But TK have been telling everyone publicly and hedgies privately what they are doing.
Hedgies are absolute zealots for money. They hear what TK are doing, and massively short sterling knowing that TK are fucking mental. Kerching! In any market calamity there is a fortune to be made.
Then what's the relevance of being "Kwarteng's friends and former colleagues"? Are his enemies and people who've never met him not capable of making the same trades?
Once the borrowing to finance the price support cap for energy became policy, the pound was only going to head down. The tax stuff is just a cherry on that cake.
That's not a bet, that's simply economic gravity at work.
This. The extra economic stimulus was something like 5% of national income on top of the existing Sunak deficit. When rates are going up, locals and foreigners aren't going to finance that scale of extra sterling borrowing for free.
I don't understand the whole "secret information" thing.
Once I heard that they were going to intervene massively in the energy market to protect consumers, I moved to be in a situation to benefit from the pound going down.
That's GCSE economics.
Exactly.
The pound going down is not a bad thing. It would be bad if they were trying to keep the pound up.
That was the mistake of Black Wednesday, not letting the pound freely float to its proper level.
The pound devaluing on Black Wednesday helped the British economy in the years ahead. The Lira remaining locked to the the Deutschemark via the Euro has deeply damaged the Italian economy.
A freely floating currency helps economies adjust to turmoil, by lowering when there are economic difficulties and so boosting competition and growth, or by rising when the economy is overheating, thus reducing inflation. It is not a machismo virility symbol to be kept as high as possible all the time.
I watched an interesting debate last night on the Tech Industry in the USA, the high dollar is killing its competitiveness.
And I don't see how KK goes but Truss survives. Every letter of the special financial operation would have been driven by, or at minimum endorsed, by her.
PMs sack chancellors all the time...
But Truss knew all about KK's policies and may even have suggested some of them (see once again the article in the Sunday Times I posted on both Sunday and last night).
Which means she is too tied to these policies for her to sack KK without the response hurting her as well.
Some interesting points being made on twitter, that so many of Kwarteng's friends and former colleagues are making a fortune shorting the pound...
Who said deliberately? The Truss - Kwarteng pact genuinely believes in this policy direction. Absolute zealots. But TK have been telling everyone publicly and hedgies privately what they are doing.
Hedgies are absolute zealots for money. They hear what TK are doing, and massively short sterling knowing that TK are fucking mental. Kerching! In any market calamity there is a fortune to be made.
Ex-Hedgie Sunak warns that if Truss’ policies happen then the markets will rip the backside out of the UK.
Truss’ policies happen.
Hedgies make hay at the country’s expense.
People are surprised.
Daily mail complain about the Evil hedgies and traders who have just benefited from tax cut and bonus freedom that the Daily Mail were cheering a few days ago.
I know. Its a crime. PB Moderator must step in and stop defaming the poor chancellor by reporting what he said and did. He has been so misrepresented.
You insinuated that he gave inside information to his mates, and now you're saying that the whole world knew. Which is it?
I would suggest @RochdalePioneers is unwise to make the allegations which, even if he thought it, is maybe better not openly expressed
He didn't allege anything. Merely noted, as have many including national newspapers, an unfortunate coincidence regarding the Chancellor and his former employers and colleagues.
"Telling his hedgie mates what he is about to do is insider trading" goes beyond noting a coincidence and beyond any of the media reports.
Perhaps we should leave it to the FCA? It is heartening to see though just how hair-trigger sensitive you are to the collapse-o-thon as your beloved economic policies get wheeled out and prompt the UK's biggest financial confidence crisis since the 1970s. Bless you.
And BTW. Your "quote" of what I said is not a quote. Its what you wish I had said in the scenario where I had now been banned and a Carter Fuck letter was drafted for my attention.
Just to note that William Hill (for example) are offering 6/5 Tories most seats at the next GE. Labour 4/6.
I think this is being generous to current Tory prospects. It needs a few more days, even a few weeks to see, but this may be a period in which it becomes beyond recovery for the Tories.
Though Labour also face risks. Hubris, adopting St Blair - who is still gravely distrusted on many sides, a less than outstanding shadow CoE; the left are still around and capable of ensuring they can't win if they put their combined mind to it. A winter of discontent is inevitable. The question is who wins and who loses from it.
I think the only danger to labour is hubris which we see on here almost daily and a smug attitude
The wiser heads in labour keep a more sensible and quietly confident manner as they know hubris and smug attitudes are not what is required just now
I think labour are very likely to even achieve a majority but must not take anything for granted
“ I think the only danger to labour is hubris “
Spot on. They are currently on 200 seats with lots of work to do, so why is their conference so smiley and smug as hell and cocksure of government. Even if the winds in their sails, cheering a win before final whistle cheering goals before they have scored them is a dumb ass demeanour.
It actually shows something is wrong about them. Not professional, not cool headed enough perhaps.
Cool-headed enough for all the republicans at the party conference to stand for the national anthem and show no dissent.
Yeah, knew i’de get a few Brain Dead responses, when all i railed against was hubris. Let me explain to you how party conferences work, at least in 21st century. Cheer teams to do leadership bidding turn up, members who disagree with them largely stay away.
My Dad was telling me, before I was born Party conferences were completely different for all party’s, they went from Monday to Friday and we’re proper working conferences, not soundbites for the news events. When and why did all that change - and for the worst, something good, like democratic policy making teeth for members thrown out by greedy leaderships like bath water?
And I don't see how KK goes but Truss survives. Every letter of the special financial operation would have been driven by, or at minimum endorsed, by her.
PMs sack chancellors all the time...
But Truss knew all about KK's policies and may even have suggested some of them (see once again the article in the Sunday Times I posted on both Sunday and last night).
Which means she is too tied to these policies for her to sack KK without the response hurting her as well.
Some interesting points being made on twitter, that so many of Kwarteng's friends and former colleagues are making a fortune shorting the pound...
Who said deliberately? The Truss - Kwarteng pact genuinely believes in this policy direction. Absolute zealots. But TK have been telling everyone publicly and hedgies privately what they are doing.
Hedgies are absolute zealots for money. They hear what TK are doing, and massively short sterling knowing that TK are fucking mental. Kerching! In any market calamity there is a fortune to be made.
Ex-Hedgie Sunak warns that if Truss’ policies happen then the markets will rip the backside out of the UK.
Truss’ policies happen.
Hedgies make hay at the country’s expense.
People are surprised.
Daily mail complain about the Evil hedgies and traders who have just benefited from tax cut and bonus freedom that the Daily Mail were cheering a few days ago.
I know. Its a crime. PB Moderator must step in and stop defaming the poor chancellor by reporting what he said and did. He has been so misrepresented.
You accused him of insider trading. That's a serious crime.
Taking a policy position that was public knowledge, or making an economic trade based on public domain information, is not insider trading and is not a crime.
The Times have not accused him of insider trading AFAIK. Only you have.
That paragraph says nothing about insider trading, nor do the Standard or Guardian articles (Times article behind a paywall).
Placing shorts based on public domain information is not insider trading. To raise allegations of insider trading, not backed by any media, that's a different matter.
Though I'll leave it there. If you want to keep making the allegation and if the Moderators are OK with that, that's on you and them, but normally there's a clear line about allegations of criminality.
Neither did Rochdale - if you look at his post (which is the only one which says directly that anyone told anyone anything) about "TK" telling his/their mates, you'll note it also says telling the public - so how would that be unpublished information ?
You are accusing him of libel entirely baselessly.
And I don't see how KK goes but Truss survives. Every letter of the special financial operation would have been driven by, or at minimum endorsed, by her.
PMs sack chancellors all the time...
But Truss knew all about KK's policies and may even have suggested some of them (see once again the article in the Sunday Times I posted on both Sunday and last night).
Which means she is too tied to these policies for her to sack KK without the response hurting her as well.
Some interesting points being made on twitter, that so many of Kwarteng's friends and former colleagues are making a fortune shorting the pound...
Who said deliberately? The Truss - Kwarteng pact genuinely believes in this policy direction. Absolute zealots. But TK have been telling everyone publicly and hedgies privately what they are doing.
Hedgies are absolute zealots for money. They hear what TK are doing, and massively short sterling knowing that TK are fucking mental. Kerching! In any market calamity there is a fortune to be made.
Ex-Hedgie Sunak warns that if Truss’ policies happen then the markets will rip the backside out of the UK.
Truss’ policies happen.
Hedgies make hay at the country’s expense.
People are surprised.
Daily mail complain about the Evil hedgies and traders who have just benefited from tax cut and bonus freedom that the Daily Mail were cheering a few days ago.
I know. Its a crime. PB Moderator must step in and stop defaming the poor chancellor by reporting what he said and did. He has been so misrepresented.
You accused him of insider trading. That's a serious crime.
Taking a policy position that was public knowledge, or making an economic trade based on public domain information, is not insider trading and is not a crime.
The Times have not accused him of insider trading AFAIK. Only you have.
That paragraph says nothing about insider trading, nor do the Standard or Guardian articles (Times article behind a paywall).
Placing shorts based on public domain information is not insider trading. To raise allegations of insider trading, not backed by any media, that's a different matter.
Though I'll leave it there. If you want to keep making the allegation and if the Moderators are OK with that, that's on you and them, but normally there's a clear line about allegations of criminality.
Neither did Rochdale - if you look at his post (which is the only one which says directly that anyone told anyone anything) about "TK" telling his/their mates, you'll note it also says telling the public - so how would that be unpublished information ?
You are accusing him of libel entirely baselessly.
Rochdale used the Donald Trump technique of "a lot of people are saying". It just reflects poorly on him.
And I don't see how KK goes but Truss survives. Every letter of the special financial operation would have been driven by, or at minimum endorsed, by her.
PMs sack chancellors all the time...
But Truss knew all about KK's policies and may even have suggested some of them (see once again the article in the Sunday Times I posted on both Sunday and last night).
Which means she is too tied to these policies for her to sack KK without the response hurting her as well.
Some interesting points being made on twitter, that so many of Kwarteng's friends and former colleagues are making a fortune shorting the pound...
Who said deliberately? The Truss - Kwarteng pact genuinely believes in this policy direction. Absolute zealots. But TK have been telling everyone publicly and hedgies privately what they are doing.
Hedgies are absolute zealots for money. They hear what TK are doing, and massively short sterling knowing that TK are fucking mental. Kerching! In any market calamity there is a fortune to be made.
Ex-Hedgie Sunak warns that if Truss’ policies happen then the markets will rip the backside out of the UK.
Truss’ policies happen.
Hedgies make hay at the country’s expense.
People are surprised.
Daily mail complain about the Evil hedgies and traders who have just benefited from tax cut and bonus freedom that the Daily Mail were cheering a few days ago.
I know. Its a crime. PB Moderator must step in and stop defaming the poor chancellor by reporting what he said and did. He has been so misrepresented.
You accused him of insider trading. That's a serious crime.
Taking a policy position that was public knowledge, or making an economic trade based on public domain information, is not insider trading and is not a crime.
The Times have not accused him of insider trading AFAIK. Only you have.
That paragraph says nothing about insider trading, nor do the Standard or Guardian articles (Times article behind a paywall).
Placing shorts based on public domain information is not insider trading. To raise allegations of insider trading, not backed by any media, that's a different matter.
Though I'll leave it there. If you want to keep making the allegation and if the Moderators are OK with that, that's on you and them, but normally there's a clear line about allegations of criminality.
Neither did Rochdale - if you look at his post (which is the only one which says directly that anyone told anyone anything) about "TK" telling his/their mates, you'll note it also says telling the public - so how would that be unpublished information ?
You are accusing him of libel entirely baselessly.
Its not baseless. He just has no clue what Libel is. As BR is the PB-expert on all topics - especially the ones he knows nothing about - we aren't surprised.
I get it though. His lot are getting absolutely battered. Have to attack the critics. Enemies of the People and all that.
And I don't see how KK goes but Truss survives. Every letter of the special financial operation would have been driven by, or at minimum endorsed, by her.
PMs sack chancellors all the time...
But Truss knew all about KK's policies and may even have suggested some of them (see once again the article in the Sunday Times I posted on both Sunday and last night).
Which means she is too tied to these policies for her to sack KK without the response hurting her as well.
Some interesting points being made on twitter, that so many of Kwarteng's friends and former colleagues are making a fortune shorting the pound...
Who said deliberately? The Truss - Kwarteng pact genuinely believes in this policy direction. Absolute zealots. But TK have been telling everyone publicly and hedgies privately what they are doing.
Hedgies are absolute zealots for money. They hear what TK are doing, and massively short sterling knowing that TK are fucking mental. Kerching! In any market calamity there is a fortune to be made.
Ex-Hedgie Sunak warns that if Truss’ policies happen then the markets will rip the backside out of the UK.
Truss’ policies happen.
Hedgies make hay at the country’s expense.
People are surprised.
Daily mail complain about the Evil hedgies and traders who have just benefited from tax cut and bonus freedom that the Daily Mail were cheering a few days ago.
I know. Its a crime. PB Moderator must step in and stop defaming the poor chancellor by reporting what he said and did. He has been so misrepresented.
You accused him of insider trading. That's a serious crime.
Taking a policy position that was public knowledge, or making an economic trade based on public domain information, is not insider trading and is not a crime.
The Times have not accused him of insider trading AFAIK. Only you have.
That paragraph says nothing about insider trading, nor do the Standard or Guardian articles (Times article behind a paywall).
Placing shorts based on public domain information is not insider trading. To raise allegations of insider trading, not backed by any media, that's a different matter.
Though I'll leave it there. If you want to keep making the allegation and if the Moderators are OK with that, that's on you and them, but normally there's a clear line about allegations of criminality.
Neither did Rochdale - if you look at his post (which is the only one which says directly that anyone told anyone anything) about "TK" telling his/their mates, you'll note it also says telling the public - so how would that be unpublished information ?
You are accusing him of libel entirely baselessly.
Careful, you'll get dragged into a tedious day-long debate with the esteemed Barty about the definition of libel. Master of everything, expert in? No-one quite knows. But he sure will tell you his opinion on it, again and again.
Some welcome relief in markets this morning: the pound strengthens against the dollar, up to $1.08… and UK govt bond yields drop slightly, with the 10yr down from 4.2% to 4.1%. Both still a LONG way away from where they were only last week. But here’s hoping for a quieter day 🤞 https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1574687105284030464/photo/1
And I don't see how KK goes but Truss survives. Every letter of the special financial operation would have been driven by, or at minimum endorsed, by her.
PMs sack chancellors all the time...
But Truss knew all about KK's policies and may even have suggested some of them (see once again the article in the Sunday Times I posted on both Sunday and last night).
Which means she is too tied to these policies for her to sack KK without the response hurting her as well.
Some interesting points being made on twitter, that so many of Kwarteng's friends and former colleagues are making a fortune shorting the pound...
Who said deliberately? The Truss - Kwarteng pact genuinely believes in this policy direction. Absolute zealots. But TK have been telling everyone publicly and hedgies privately what they are doing.
Hedgies are absolute zealots for money. They hear what TK are doing, and massively short sterling knowing that TK are fucking mental. Kerching! In any market calamity there is a fortune to be made.
Ex-Hedgie Sunak warns that if Truss’ policies happen then the markets will rip the backside out of the UK.
Truss’ policies happen.
Hedgies make hay at the country’s expense.
People are surprised.
Daily mail complain about the Evil hedgies and traders who have just benefited from tax cut and bonus freedom that the Daily Mail were cheering a few days ago.
I know. Its a crime. PB Moderator must step in and stop defaming the poor chancellor by reporting what he said and did. He has been so misrepresented.
You accused him of insider trading. That's a serious crime.
Taking a policy position that was public knowledge, or making an economic trade based on public domain information, is not insider trading and is not a crime.
The Times have not accused him of insider trading AFAIK. Only you have.
That paragraph says nothing about insider trading, nor do the Standard or Guardian articles (Times article behind a paywall).
Placing shorts based on public domain information is not insider trading. To raise allegations of insider trading, not backed by any media, that's a different matter.
Though I'll leave it there. If you want to keep making the allegation and if the Moderators are OK with that, that's on you and them, but normally there's a clear line about allegations of criminality.
Neither did Rochdale - if you look at his post (which is the only one which says directly that anyone told anyone anything) about "TK" telling his/their mates, you'll note it also says telling the public - so how would that be unpublished information ?
You are accusing him of libel entirely baselessly.
Rochdale used the Donald Trump technique of "a lot of people are saying". It just reflects poorly on him.
Its in the Sunday Times love. And the Evening Standard. With calls for the FCA to investigate.
Morning all! I know we are all enjoying the series of unfortunate events, but the good news is there are so many more to come!
After the Truss-Kwarteng pact blew the safeties that stopped the economy sliding into the pit, we have had a weekend of "this is fine", then "no comment", and now "we won't hesitate to act next month".
It has been suggested that its helpful to the Tories that parliament isn't sitting, but I disagree. Instead of a barracking in the Commons, instead its the Tory Party Conference!!!
The current crisis has been turbocharged by a lack of confidence in the TK pact policies. Because they are fucking mental. So next week we get to watch whilst Truss and Kwarteng and their inner circle of spivs go on stage in front of an audience whose average age is also their IQ.
Kwarteng is truly awful when speaking. Or even not speaking as we saw at the state funeral. He gurns and giggles and grimaces. What he is saying is fucking mental as I've already covered, but the way he says it makes it worse. We will get a coterie of spivs. Have no idea who Chief Sec is but we know they'll be a div. The last one Simon Clarke never seems to have a clue what day it is. Braverman will be on.
And then Truss. Who bless her has no idea how to do a speech. We had the Pork Markets idiocy. The This Is A Disgrace faux outrage. The endless Thatcher cosplay. So whilst we await her speech we can only imagine that the content, the tone and the presentation will be disastrous. Instead of markets getting assurance that the government is competent and listening, they will get a week of wazzocks and incontinents telling them they are wrong to be shorting Blighty. And oh yes, spot all the Tory donors who are all making a fortune shorting the pound!
Apologies to my genuinely Tory-supporting PB friends. Its all over. Even HY has given up, and rightly so. Because - and I don't say this often - @HYUFD called this absolutely right when he backed Sunak over Truss. She is the apocalpyse.
Question is- why did she get the job?
Was it because Conservative MPs and members bought in to her plans?
Or was it because Rishi had been mean to Boris and Penny was too woke?
It was mainly because a majority of the current Tory membership are elderly. clueless Kippers.
The pound has bounced strongly from its low point during hours of low liquidity in Asia trading hours on Monday morning. That's with the chancellor saying there are more tax cuts to come, and the BoE saying last night they won't even bother meeting again until November ("Go F yourself Market warship!").
No doubt we've still got weeks ahead of shrill screeching about how the "economy has been destroyed". Too many aren't looking with a wide enough lens. Sterling has lost 20% vs the dollar in the last 12mths, the Euro 18%. One of those two currencies crossed the faux important threshold of parity and it wasn't sterling. Meanwhile with the BoE and Fed both starting to unwind QE, both have seen increases in bond yields. But the risk premium between the UK to the US for 10-years is still only 0.26% (4.10% vs 3.84%).
I can't recall an episode of such misplaced hysteria. Not to say the UK economy doesn't have severe structural problems. But talk of "crashing the economy" or even a currency crisis (!) are hard to comprehend other than through partisan politics or the doom loop prism that some people seem so attached to. The BBC even carried a long segment yesterday explaining the Exchange Rate Mechanism. I mean really! The circumstances are now wholly different as anyone with even a fleeting understanding knows.
Yield curve inversion is a normal feature going into a recessionary period, it doesn't mean "the market has lost confidence". The DMO is auctioning £1.2bn of gilts today, before proclaiming that Truss or KK won't last the week, let's wait and see if this auction fails or more likely it has highly comfortable coverage.
And I don't see how KK goes but Truss survives. Every letter of the special financial operation would have been driven by, or at minimum endorsed, by her.
PMs sack chancellors all the time...
But Truss knew all about KK's policies and may even have suggested some of them (see once again the article in the Sunday Times I posted on both Sunday and last night).
Which means she is too tied to these policies for her to sack KK without the response hurting her as well.
Some interesting points being made on twitter, that so many of Kwarteng's friends and former colleagues are making a fortune shorting the pound...
Who said deliberately? The Truss - Kwarteng pact genuinely believes in this policy direction. Absolute zealots. But TK have been telling everyone publicly and hedgies privately what they are doing.
Hedgies are absolute zealots for money. They hear what TK are doing, and massively short sterling knowing that TK are fucking mental. Kerching! In any market calamity there is a fortune to be made.
Ex-Hedgie Sunak warns that if Truss’ policies happen then the markets will rip the backside out of the UK.
Truss’ policies happen.
Hedgies make hay at the country’s expense.
People are surprised.
Daily mail complain about the Evil hedgies and traders who have just benefited from tax cut and bonus freedom that the Daily Mail were cheering a few days ago.
I know. Its a crime. PB Moderator must step in and stop defaming the poor chancellor by reporting what he said and did. He has been so misrepresented.
You accused him of insider trading. That's a serious crime.
Taking a policy position that was public knowledge, or making an economic trade based on public domain information, is not insider trading and is not a crime.
The Times have not accused him of insider trading AFAIK. Only you have.
That paragraph says nothing about insider trading, nor do the Standard or Guardian articles (Times article behind a paywall).
Placing shorts based on public domain information is not insider trading. To raise allegations of insider trading, not backed by any media, that's a different matter.
Though I'll leave it there. If you want to keep making the allegation and if the Moderators are OK with that, that's on you and them, but normally there's a clear line about allegations of criminality.
Neither did Rochdale - if you look at his post (which is the only one which says directly that anyone told anyone anything) about "TK" telling his/their mates, you'll note it also says telling the public - so how would that be unpublished information ?
You are accusing him of libel entirely baselessly.
Rochdale used the Donald Trump technique of "a lot of people are saying". It just reflects poorly on him.
Accusing someone of libel, when you dislike the message, isn't the best of looks either.
People noticed a US anti-submarine warfare helicopter stationed seaward of Kaliningrad for the last several days. Was that watching for Russian sub movements that might interfere with sabotage of the pipeline, or perpetrate it?
Why would the Russians need to sabotage it? They can just cut off the supply. Russia I'm sure hopes to sell gas to Europe in the future.
I personally think that in the long term this is good news. Stop all European usage of Russian gas and switch to renewables.
And I don't see how KK goes but Truss survives. Every letter of the special financial operation would have been driven by, or at minimum endorsed, by her.
PMs sack chancellors all the time...
But Truss knew all about KK's policies and may even have suggested some of them (see once again the article in the Sunday Times I posted on both Sunday and last night).
Which means she is too tied to these policies for her to sack KK without the response hurting her as well.
Some interesting points being made on twitter, that so many of Kwarteng's friends and former colleagues are making a fortune shorting the pound...
Who said deliberately? The Truss - Kwarteng pact genuinely believes in this policy direction. Absolute zealots. But TK have been telling everyone publicly and hedgies privately what they are doing.
Hedgies are absolute zealots for money. They hear what TK are doing, and massively short sterling knowing that TK are fucking mental. Kerching! In any market calamity there is a fortune to be made.
Then what's the relevance of being "Kwarteng's friends and former colleagues"? Are his enemies and people who've never met him not capable of making the same trades?
Once the borrowing to finance the price support cap for energy became policy, the pound was only going to head down. The tax stuff is just a cherry on that cake.
That's not a bet, that's simply economic gravity at work.
This. The extra economic stimulus was something like 5% of national income on top of the existing Sunak deficit. When rates are going up, locals and foreigners aren't going to finance that scale of extra sterling borrowing for free.
I don't understand the whole "secret information" thing.
Once I heard that they were going to intervene massively in the energy market to protect consumers, I moved to be in a situation to benefit from the pound going down.
That's GCSE economics.
Exactly.
The pound going down is not a bad thing. It would be bad if they were trying to keep the pound up.
That was the mistake of Black Wednesday, not letting the pound freely float to its proper level.
The pound devaluing on Black Wednesday helped the British economy in the years ahead. The Lira remaining locked to the the Deutschemark via the Euro has deeply damaged the Italian economy.
A freely floating currency helps economies adjust to turmoil, by lowering when there are economic difficulties and so boosting competition and growth, or by rising when the economy is overheating, thus reducing inflation. It is not a machismo virility symbol to be kept as high as possible all the time.
I watched an interesting debate last night on the Tech Industry in the USA, the high dollar is killing its competitiveness.
Indeed, its amusing that people are responding to an economic statement designed to encourage growth by suggesting that a small fall in Sterling is a problem.
Devaluations help boost competitiveness and encourage growth.
Its a good thing that Kwarteng is following traditional Chancellor policy of not speaking on market movements, as the media would probably get more hysterical if he pointed out that the currency falling is a good thing ...
Truss is definitely bonkers and/or thick as pig-shit.
I absolutely hate this ridiculous idea that politicians, who have reached senior office, are 'thick' or 'bonkers'. They are not. They may have different opinions that you, but they certainly must have some ability in order for them to have been selected and then elected.
Comments
@DuncanWeldon
They. Have. Not. Deliberately. Crashed. Sterling. To. Help. Hedge. Funds.
https://twitter.com/DuncanWeldon/status/1574448012327370753
Yesterday there were people on Twitter being quoted here making that point about people who had made "bullish" bets on the pound, ie they expected the pound to rise and then Tweeters claim they're making a fortune from shorting it when the opposite is true.
To be honest, I wouldn't have been that surprised if that had been the reaction, but clearly the fiscal credibility of the UK was more vulnerable and has been the determining factor.
(Morning all)
Hedgies are absolute zealots for money. They hear what TK are doing, and massively short sterling knowing that TK are fucking mental. Kerching! In any market calamity there is a fortune to be made.
Truss can't sack Kwarteng, as they are ideologically joined at the hip and it would immediately trash her economic 'Britannia Unchained' vision. And frankly, sacking a Chancellor after such a short time would be seen, rightly, as ludicrous.
If Tory MPs defenestrated Truss, the chances of a Labour government would switch from likely to almost certain. Who would vote for a party that is so chaotic that it keeps switching leader? I think the price of defenestrating Truss would be an immediate GE.
So all they can do is cross their fingers and hope. A lot can happen in two years. As a Labour man, I still don't think the next GE is in the bag - there's a lot of fingernails still to be bitten before I relax.
Was it because Conservative MPs and members bought in to her plans?
Or was it because Rishi had been mean to Boris and Penny was too woke?
It is at least
If you look back to 1997, the New Labour grandees believed defeat was a possibility all the way to election day. That was a lesson learned at the Sheffield Rally in 1992. I doubt we will see a "Sheffield" today.
We're hopeful, but far from smug. Much water to pass under the bridge yet.
I'm talking about reports circulating on Twitter yesterday quoting that pre-mini statement that funds had placed "bullish" bets on the pound and Tweeters claiming that meant they were raking it in. Err, no, anyone who placed a bullish bet on the pound pre-mini statement would have lost money.
1. Truss wants to be PM. She can ditch Kamikaze if doing that saves her job. Just watch her
2. She already claims other people wrote the bits people don't like in Britannia Unchained
3. If MPs decide to move on Truss, Kwarteng will be offered as a sacrifice
4. If that isn't enough, then *can* remove her and justify why. If she stays they not only get smashed at the election, they destroy party reputation. So even if a removal and install of Sunak is bad, it may be the least-worst option.
5. There is no chance of an early GE unless the PM wants one. Even if the public react badly to yet another PM, the party has a big majority and the new PM can plead for time.
That we are even discussing this in the same months that Truss ascended to the throne is bonkers. Gloriously so. Love politics!
https://twitter.com/JHillje/status/1574484448267173890
Which is why they are polling about 40% - this is well out of the core vote and a fair way into the "middle of the road, I'm not ideological, want a quiet life and the garbage collected" political grouping.
The SDP and CDU are both utterly contemptible in this conflict, and the build up to it.
If you want to get ultra-rich individuals to move to the UK and invest here then the 45% rate is pretty irrelevant, it's taxation of things like carried interest and the non-dom regime. But again, those are also highly suspect areas in terms of the type of "investment" they bring.
By the way we are struggling with the maths on the £2bn value of the 45% cut. The stats we've seen on how much total tax is paid at the higher rate band (around £80bn) would imply the 5% is more like £9bn. A bit of a mystery hidden somewhere in the accounting. That's where Treasury and OBR numbers are sorely needed.
That's not a bet, that's simply economic gravity at work.
WE'RE RIGHT, EVERYONE ELSE IS WRONG
Or are you accusing the Chancellor of engaging in insider trading?
The latter is an incredibly serious baseless allegation and is surely against @PBModerator rules to make such an allegation of criminality without evidence.
Talk about being stuck in the past...
If you can keep your heads, while those around you are losing theirs ...
The trades a week ahead of the 'fiscal event' may well be entirely coincidence, of course.
But the optics of those who previously employed Kwarteng, and helped finance Truss's leadership campaign shorting the pound are sub-optimal, at the very best.
Truss’ policies happen.
Hedgies make hay at the country’s expense.
People are surprised.
Daily mail complain about the Evil hedgies and traders who have just benefited from tax cut and bonus freedom that the Daily Mail were cheering a few days ago.
And most of the negative comments on the current Tory regime are from right-leaning posters. Us lefties are just sitting back and enjoying it.
East Politics goes back to before Bismarck - make friends with Russia. In the modern era, Being A Good German means that the idea of conflict with Russia is an especial anathema - that puts you in the same box as the Kaiser and YouKnowWho.
So there is a reflexive twitch towards Russia. This is strengthened by the extreme commercialist view of foreign policy - that Germany must do what ever is good for exports.
The current situation with Ukraine means that people of these view see conflict with Russia and profound damage to German exports to a number of markets.
It's like Conservatives seeing a Conservative government spending like a drunk sailor, in the UK. "We don't do that"....
It looks like there was an attempt to help the hedgies make money from market movements after the SBO, but that they were part of the same groupthink that misjudged the market reaction.
Their politicians keep saying deeply unhelpful and frankly insulting things that give the impression Germany is at best an appeaser, at worst quietly sympathetic to Russia. A few of their actions - largely the vetoing of certain heavy weaponry deliveries - reinforce this feeling. Yet most of the rest of their actions have been quite radically supportive of Ukraine: they have delivered more weapons and aid than France or Italy (the latter has been the most feeble of the major European powers), they cancelled Nordstream 2, seized and nationalised Nordstream 1 and Rosneft assets and took a lot of refugees.
The words matter and those are what Ukrainians and other East Europeans see. That's equally why it's so frustrating seeing British politicians burning bridges by picking rhetorical fights with European countries and institutions, looking un-serious and not to be trusted in the process, whilst our actual actions remain pretty tame and friendly. Speaking loudly and carrying a small stick essentially.
Spot on. They are currently on 200 seats with lots of work to do, so why is their conference so smiley and smug as hell and cocksure of government. Even if the winds in their sails, cheering a win before final whistle cheering goals before they have scored them is a dumb ass demeanour.
It actually shows something is wrong about them. Not professional, not cool headed enough perhaps.
Taking a policy position that was public knowledge, or making an economic trade based on public domain information, is not insider trading and is not a crime.
The Times have not accused him of insider trading AFAIK. Only you have.
Once I heard that they were going to intervene massively in the energy market to protect consumers, I moved to be in a situation to benefit from the pound going down.
That's GCSE economics.
However, I don't see hubris in the clips I have seen coming out of Liverpool. They know the scale of the challenge, but they're starting to really believe they could do it.
With Mandy and Campbell reportedly shaping the narrative I expect we will be seeing criticism of Labour being too hesitant, not them being too bullish.
https://twitter.com/zeitonline/status/1574675351749513218
The Tories are offering to take us back to the Thatcherite late 80s. We are replaying the period 1987-92.
Labour are offering a trip back memory lane to the late 90s: a replay of 1997-2002. The sight of Campbell and co is quietly reassuring for many especially the Gen Xers who fondly remember that period.
Neither party really has a vision for the 2020s and 2030s, yet. Nor do the minor parties.
At the moment the 90s seems to be winning in the polls.
Are you happy with the way Germany has supported Ukraine in this war by forcing RAF flights to go around its airspace and providing very little in military aid?
The pound going down is not a bad thing. It would be bad if they were trying to keep the pound up.
That was the mistake of Black Wednesday, not letting the pound freely float to its proper level.
The pound devaluing on Black Wednesday helped the British economy in the years ahead. The Lira remaining locked to the the Deutschemark via the Euro has deeply damaged the Italian economy.
A freely floating currency helps economies adjust to turmoil, by lowering when there are economic difficulties and so boosting competition and growth, or by rising when the economy is overheating, thus reducing inflation. It is not a machismo virility symbol to be kept as high as possible all the time.
But the innuendo isn't baseless; it's based on an interpretation, fanciful (likely) or not, of known facts.
Way out of this monetary crisis slash the state? And when you slash the state to get some money, how long before you get some money? If Kwarsi started now, Starmer would get the money not Truss? Sometimes it costs money up front to slim the state, early retirement packages etc.
Insider trading is a crime, and PB Moderator has strict rules against accusing people of crimes. That's completely different.
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/labour-investigation-leaks-mini-budget-pound-streling-united-states-dollar-kwasi-tulip-siddiq-b1028051.html
One highly-respected economist said he had “got wind of” the abolition of this top rate of tax a couple of days before it was announced.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/sep/26/fca-urged-investigate-tory-allies-short-pound-insider-info-budget
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/biscotti-mini-budget-exposes-gulf-between-liz-truss-and-keir-starmer-and-more-tax-cuts-are-on-the-cards-j2mj5zncs
and the key paragraph in that story
https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/1573724760625876993?s=20&t=9VuUrvZO1AHakZstqN1LNg
"Its libel" intones BR who as usual has no clue what he is talking about.
Merely noted, as have many including national newspapers, an unfortunate coincidence regarding the Chancellor and his former employers and colleagues.
Placing shorts based on public domain information is not insider trading. To raise allegations of insider trading, not backed by any media, that's a different matter.
Though I'll leave it there. If you want to keep making the allegation and if the Moderators are OK with that, that's on you and them, but normally there's a clear line about allegations of criminality.
If you announce that you are going to act in a way that tanks the pound, being surprised that pound tanks is definitely stupid.
Do you not wonder why I and others who are not from the left have a go at you? I have never voted Labour in my life (67). Your constant bile does nothing in progressing the right of centre cause which I would like to hear. You just come over as a very sad bitter person. Try looking at the others who post from the right on here who are constructive and entertaining. I listed a few the other day.
And if you don't like it why do you bother coming here?
Here he is, musing his plans about giving tax cuts to the richest 1% without any idea how to fund it or why it might create any growth:
https://twitter.com/geoffh33/status/1571912479768477696
Truss is definitely bonkers and/or thick as pig-shit.
And BTW. Your "quote" of what I said is not a quote. Its what you wish I had said in the scenario where I had now been banned and a Carter Fuck letter was drafted for my attention.
My Dad was telling me, before I was born Party conferences were completely different for all party’s, they went from Monday to Friday and we’re proper working conferences, not soundbites for the news events. When and why did all that change - and for the worst, something good, like democratic policy making teeth for members thrown out by greedy leaderships like bath water?
You are accusing him of libel entirely baselessly.
A leaked dossier has suggested the process of awarding a £97m Scottish ferries contract may have been rigged.
Documents obtained by BBC Disclosure indicate that successful bidder Ferguson Marine Engineering benefited from preferential treatment.
The two ferries are still being built for CalMac, but will be at least £150m over budget and five years late.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-62986757
I get it though. His lot are getting absolutely battered. Have to attack the critics. Enemies of the People and all that.
and UK govt bond yields drop slightly, with the 10yr down from 4.2% to 4.1%.
Both still a LONG way away from where they were only last week.
But here’s hoping for a quieter day 🤞 https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1574687105284030464/photo/1
No doubt we've still got weeks ahead of shrill screeching about how the "economy has been destroyed". Too many aren't looking with a wide enough lens. Sterling has lost 20% vs the dollar in the last 12mths, the Euro 18%. One of those two currencies crossed the faux important threshold of parity and it wasn't sterling. Meanwhile with the BoE and Fed both starting to unwind QE, both have seen increases in bond yields. But the risk premium between the UK to the US for 10-years is still only 0.26% (4.10% vs 3.84%).
I can't recall an episode of such misplaced hysteria. Not to say the UK economy doesn't have severe structural problems. But talk of "crashing the economy" or even a currency crisis (!) are hard to comprehend other than through partisan politics or the doom loop prism that some people seem so attached to. The BBC even carried a long segment yesterday explaining the Exchange Rate Mechanism. I mean really! The circumstances are now wholly different as anyone with even a fleeting understanding knows.
Yield curve inversion is a normal feature going into a recessionary period, it doesn't mean "the market has lost confidence". The DMO is auctioning £1.2bn of gilts today, before proclaiming that Truss or KK won't last the week, let's wait and see if this auction fails or more likely it has highly comfortable coverage.
I personally think that in the long term this is good news. Stop all European usage of Russian gas and switch to renewables.
Devaluations help boost competitiveness and encourage growth.
Its a good thing that Kwarteng is following traditional Chancellor policy of not speaking on market movements, as the media would probably get more hysterical if he pointed out that the currency falling is a good thing ...