The only thing that saves the Tory Govt now is an appalling, desolating world crisis - nuclear war, Covid revived, American civil war, aliens land with hostile intent, and so on
No one wants that, not even me (as much as I love drama); thus, Labour wins (we hope)
Reading the comments on here, you'd think the next election has to be held by the end of the year. In fact it's January 2025.
I hear you, but this feels like about 1994-95
The absolute fag end of looooooong Tory government, the voters increasingly desperate for change, whatever happens
Differences:
1. Starmer is not half the politician Blair was 2. However, the Tories are handing over a much more fucked economy 3. Global events are way more volatile: this is the one thing that might transform the election 4. Scotland, boundary changes, etc, all benefit Tories
It’s a real mix. I’d say Labour are odds on to be the next govt, but a Labour maj is still a stretch. 3/1
The next election should be more like 1974 (Oct) than 1997 but the weirdo's in Number 10 and Number 11 might just turn the next election into an absolute shellaking for Con is they keep on as they are at the moment...
Definite moodturn tonight; it feels like the last few days have peeled off another layer of Conservative support.
So, if the Conservative aim is now to minimise the incoming defeat, what should they do?
Bonus points if it can be done while leaving Truss in office.
Kwasi had a big fan club on here about 10 years ago.
Who knew then that in 2022 he's be instrumental in sparking a run on Sterling, massive interest rate hikes and a probable housing collapse... All within his first month as CotE...
If I were the Tories, I would get Truss out and get Hunt in in a coronation, with Mordaunt as his Deputy and probable successor.
I'd have thought their best chance was to lose a general election as soon as possible.
This really depends if they have any will to govern left. If straight to opposition I would pick Mordaunt and hope for a turnaround in 5 years, maybe even 10, and give her a long chance to build a more consensus kind of Toryism.
It will be good if there's a general election, if only so we can find out whether the king (if he is still there) will make Camilla tempt fate by wearing the stolen Koh-i-Noor diamond on her hat when he opens parliament, or whether he decides to tell her to sit behind him somewhere without it. Or he may even want it on his own head, seeing as how he's king of all the religions - who knows?
The only thing that saves the Tory Govt now is an appalling, desolating world crisis - nuclear war, Covid revived, American civil war, aliens land with hostile intent, and so on
No one wants that, not even me (as much as I love drama); thus, Labour wins (we hope)
Reading the comments on here, you'd think the next election has to be held by the end of the year. In fact it's January 2025.
I hear you, but this feels like about 1994-95
The absolute fag end of looooooong Tory government, the voters increasingly desperate for change, whatever happens
Differences:
1. Starmer is not half the politician Blair was 2. However, the Tories are handing over a much more fucked economy 3. Global events are way more volatile: this is the one thing that might transform the election 4. Scotland, boundary changes, etc, all benefit Tories
It’s a real mix. I’d say Labour are odds on to be the next govt, but a Labour maj is still a stretch. 3/1
The next election should be more like 1974 (Oct) than 1997 but the weirdo's in Number 10 and Number 11 might just turn the next election into an absolute shellaking for Con is they keep on as they are at the moment...
Definite moodturn tonight; it feels like the last few days have peeled off another layer of Conservative support.
So, if the Conservative aim is now to minimise the incoming defeat, what should they do?
Bonus points if it can be done while leaving Truss in office.
1. A complete u-turn on last week's budget? Or... 2. Call an election now. On the basis the polls are only going to get worse.
Kwasi has a big fan club on here about 10 years ago.
Who knew then that in 2022 he's be instrumental in sparking a run on Sterling, massive interest rate hikes and a probable housing collapse... All within his first month as CotE...
Always remember how unpopular the Tories were in 1981. 18 months later they won a big landslide.
The only thing that saves the Tory Govt now is an appalling, desolating world crisis - nuclear war, Covid revived, American civil war, aliens land with hostile intent, and so on
No one wants that, not even me (as much as I love drama); thus, Labour wins (we hope)
Reading the comments on here, you'd think the next election has to be held by the end of the year. In fact it's January 2025.
I hear you, but this feels like about 1994-95
The absolute fag end of looooooong Tory government, the voters increasingly desperate for change, whatever happens
Differences:
1. Starmer is not half the politician Blair was 2. However, the Tories are handing over a much more fucked economy 3. Global events are way more volatile: this is the one thing that might transform the election 4. Scotland, boundary changes, etc, all benefit Tories
It’s a real mix. I’d say Labour are odds on to be the next govt, but a Labour maj is still a stretch. 3/1
The next election should be more like 1974 (Oct) than 1997 but the weirdo's in Number 10 and Number 11 might just turn the next election into an absolute shellaking for Con is they keep on as they are at the moment...
Definite moodturn tonight; it feels like the last few days have peeled off another layer of Conservative support.
So, if the Conservative aim is now to minimise the incoming defeat, what should they do?
Bonus points if it can be done while leaving Truss in office.
I turned when it became clear odd ball Truss was going to become Con leader. If it had been Rishi I'd have been wobbling and if it has been Penny I'd have been happy.
Not sure there's a lot Con can do at this point but not sending the economy into oblivion might be a start...
It will be good if there's a general election, if only so we can find out whether the king (if he is still there) will make Camilla tempt fate by wearing the stolen Koh-i-Noor diamond on her hat when he opens parliament, or whether he decides to tell her to sit behind him somewhere without it. Or he may even want it on his own head, seeing as how he's king of all the religions - who knows?
With or without an election there'll be a state opening of parliament next year.
The only thing that saves the Tory Govt now is an appalling, desolating world crisis - nuclear war, Covid revived, American civil war, aliens land with hostile intent, and so on
No one wants that, not even me (as much as I love drama); thus, Labour wins (we hope)
Reading the comments on here, you'd think the next election has to be held by the end of the year. In fact it's January 2025.
I hear you, but this feels like about 1994-95
The absolute fag end of looooooong Tory government, the voters increasingly desperate for change, whatever happens
Differences:
1. Starmer is not half the politician Blair was 2. However, the Tories are handing over a much more fucked economy 3. Global events are way more volatile: this is the one thing that might transform the election 4. Scotland, boundary changes, etc, all benefit Tories
It’s a real mix. I’d say Labour are odds on to be the next govt, but a Labour maj is still a stretch. 3/1
The next election should be more like 1974 (Oct) than 1997 but the weirdo's in Number 10 and Number 11 might just turn the next election into an absolute shellaking for Con is they keep on as they are at the moment...
Definite moodturn tonight; it feels like the last few days have peeled off another layer of Conservative support.
So, if the Conservative aim is now to minimise the incoming defeat, what should they do?
Bonus points if it can be done while leaving Truss in office.
Kwasi has a big fan club on here about 10 years ago.
Who knew then that in 2022 he's be instrumental in sparking a run on Sterling, massive interest rate hikes and a probable housing collapse... All within his first month as CotE...
Always remember how unpopular the Tories were in 1981. 18 months later they won a big landslide.
Find a winnable war and you might again. Oh, and replace Starmer with Richard Burgon, or someone else equally unelectable as Michael Foot.
Kwasi has a big fan club on here about 10 years ago.
Who knew then that in 2022 he's be instrumental in sparking a run on Sterling, massive interest rate hikes and a probable housing collapse... All within his first month as CotE...
Always remember how unpopular the Tories were in 1981. 18 months later they won a big landslide.
Very different feel now to 1981. Plus, not much likelihood of Argentina invading the Falklands, nor is North Sea Oil coming to the rescue.
Kwasi has a big fan club on here about 10 years ago.
Who knew then that in 2022 he's be instrumental in sparking a run on Sterling, massive interest rate hikes and a probable housing collapse... All within his first month as CotE...
Always remember how unpopular the Tories were in 1981. 18 months later they won a big landslide.
In 1981 Con had been in office for two years (they are now in their 12th year) Truss is no Maggie and Labour had Foot as leader and was splitting between Lab and SDP.
1974 is a much more valid comparison to the current situation IMO with both Lab and Con pretty naff, the country in terrible economic strife and lots of global shocks adding to the general sense of crisis.
Kwasi has a big fan club on here about 10 years ago.
Who knew then that in 2022 he's be instrumental in sparking a run on Sterling, massive interest rate hikes and a probable housing collapse... All within his first month as CotE...
Always remember how unpopular the Tories were in 1981. 18 months later they won a big landslide.
Find a winnable war and you might again. Oh, and replace Starmer with Richard Burgon, or someone else equally unelectable as Michael Foot.
Plus the fact Maggie windfall taxed energy companies and bankers to show her solidarity with struggling households, and Truss consciously chose to do the COMPLETE OPPOSITE.
The only thing that can save the Conservative Party in the medium term is an electoral evisceration so complete that they have to rebuild from scratch.
I think we need something else frankly. They're corrupt, they are stupid, they are inept, they are idiotic, they spent weeks and weeks in the teeth of a crisis having pissing contests. And we cannot, cannot, cannot let Labour have a massive majority. Something, Someone needs to step up
I am not a Labour voter by any means. Labour are probably the party I have voted for less often than any other, even the Greens. The Tories (as was, pre-2015) were probably the party I voted for the most.
But if Labour are the price of getting rid of this shower then so be it. And if Labour do enact PR then I will definitely be voting for them.
It is clear that the system needs to change. FPTP is no longer fit for purpose. It only worked when politicians had integrity and the guts to face the public down for the good of the country rather than their party. The Boris's, Truss's and Corbyns have shown how badly reform is needed.
Now Starmer is heading for a majority he will file PR in a bottom drawer and never get it out again
Nope - not that I can ask anyone until the weekend but I suspect PR is firmly in the plan for Year 1 of a Labour Government.
They may not always get a majority but the Tories (as currently exist) never will and that is definitely a priority at the moment...
It isn't, Labour will not want to hand the balance of power to the LDs most of the time if they can win a majority themselves. The LDs of course can go with the Tories too as 2010 proved. It would also give seats to the Greens at Labour expense as well as Farage
Did you consider the Little Green Men from Proxima Centauri Party?
Carnyx does have a point HY. Do the Tories even exist under PR. Starmer jettisons the left, who didn’t even have enough votes to nominate Corbyn, but Conservative Party splits too, which we know as fact because it’s already happened.
It’s not a problem with Conservatism, such as you and many other PBers believe in, it’s a rise in Libertarian Economics, Anti woke, and Right wing populism infesting the Conservative brand that doesn’t show respect in institutions and counterbalances conservatism is founded on, that are all pulling the Conservative party apart right now, and have been for some time.
The Conservative Party would likely split in time under PR into a populist nationalist right party and a centre right more traditional Tory Party. However as Sweden and Italy have shown those 2 wings of the right can unite to form governments under PR even if not in the same party.
As you also state under PR Corbynites would likely split from Labour too and form their own hard Left party
As a Centrist that sounds perfect. Butskell Governments forever!
Tugendhat is another one who can help the Tories longer term, like Hunt and Mordaunt.
They will also probably need to bring back some of the people exiled in the Hard Brexit Stalinist purges, like Dominic Grieve and Rory Stewart. An English nationalist/Hard Brexiter party might separate off, but that might actually be a more healthy thing for both in the longer-term.
If I were the Tories, I would get Truss out and get Hunt in in a coronation, with Mordaunt as his Deputy and probable successor.
I'd have thought their best chance was to lose a general election as soon as possible.
This really depends if they have any will to govern left. If straight to opposition I would pick Mordaunt and hope for a turnaround in 5 years, maybe even 10, and give her a long chance to build a more consensus kind of Toryism.
She certainly got on the platform, to much excitement - but under the spotlight so clear she didn’t seem to have anything to add or say?
Extreme jubilation from long term Labour supporters on here tonight. The party has had a pretty miserable last 6 years or so and it’s about time the pendulum swung and you were able to enjoy some good news. I remember how pleased I was when the Tories were building big poll leads in 2007-2010, it is a nice feeling.
Away from all the tribalism, I think more and more people are moving to the view that Labour deserve a chance and I’m pretty certain that will be where my vote is going at the next GE bar an unforeseen event that really puts me off. I’m not sure how great a PM Starmer will be or even how good a Labour government will be - there’s still lots I disagree with - but that’s nothing compared to the absolute shower that are running the country right now.
I hope the Tories can sensibly rebuild in opposition, if it comes to that. I will always be a natural right of centre voter so I hope that there will be a party I can get behind and drift back to in time - at the moment, it’s just not there anymore.
That's my position too. As it stands now I'll be voting for Labour at the next election, more to get the Tories out and hope they become a sensible party in Opposition again than any great conviction in Labour or SKS.
I really liked your post and that of GIN because it chimes with a long-held view of mine that for good government you need a good opposition and some of the more lamentable governments in my lifetime have presided in the absence of a credible opposition to hold them to account.
The Blair Government at the time of Iraq springs to mind but there are many other equally striking examples that can be cited.
If I were the Tories, I would get Truss out and get Hunt in in a coronation, with Mordaunt as his Deputy and probable successor.
I'd have thought their best chance was to lose a general election as soon as possible.
This really depends if they have any will to govern left. If straight to opposition I would pick Mordaunt and hope for a turnaround in 5 years, maybe even 10, and give her a long chance to build a more consensus kind of Toryism.
She certainly got on the platform, to much excitement - but under the spotlight so clear she didn’t seem to have anything to add or say?
I wouldn't really agree there. The Tories are now perceived as entirely not caring. She's one of the very few that can convincingly give the impression that she does, and probably actually does.
In the shorter-term though, they probably need either opposition from now or Hunt to at least reduce the level of the defeat a bit.
Kwasi has a big fan club on here about 10 years ago.
Who knew then that in 2022 he's be instrumental in sparking a run on Sterling, massive interest rate hikes and a probable housing collapse... All within his first month as CotE...
Always remember how unpopular the Tories were in 1981. 18 months later they won a big landslide.
Find a winnable war and you might again. Oh, and replace Starmer with Richard Burgon, or someone else equally unelectable as Michael Foot.
Plus the fact Maggie windfall taxed energy companies and bankers to show her solidarity with struggling households, and Truss consciously chose to do the COMPLETE OPPOSITE.
And that’s what this is all about really.
Mrs Thatcher was an awesome politician, leader and Prime Minister (from 75 to 87 anyway) Ms. Truss is the antithesis of Mrs T - A complete and total dud as I said on here right from the start of the Conservative leadership election in July.
How they managed to end up saddling themselves (and us) with this waste of space I have no idea...
OT, the collision of the Dart spacecraft with the asteroid Dimorphos is now 15 minutes away: https://youtu.be/oOWeIVnu6B0
Some Moon Clangers, who are friends of mine, live on Dimorphos, and are terribly honoured to be chosen for this. They have some bunting out, and will be banging tin cans.
Extreme jubilation from long term Labour supporters on here tonight. The party has had a pretty miserable last 6 years or so and it’s about time the pendulum swung and you were able to enjoy some good news. I remember how pleased I was when the Tories were building big poll leads in 2007-2010, it is a nice feeling.
Away from all the tribalism, I think more and more people are moving to the view that Labour deserve a chance and I’m pretty certain that will be where my vote is going at the next GE bar an unforeseen event that really puts me off. I’m not sure how great a PM Starmer will be or even how good a Labour government will be - there’s still lots I disagree with - but that’s nothing compared to the absolute shower that are running the country right now.
I hope the Tories can sensibly rebuild in opposition, if it comes to that. I will always be a natural right of centre voter so I hope that there will be a party I can get behind and drift back to in time - at the moment, it’s just not there anymore.
That's my position too. As it stands now I'll be voting for Labour at the next election, more to get the Tories out and hope they become a sensible party in Opposition again than any great conviction in Labour or SKS.
I really liked your post and that of GIN because it chimes with a long-held view of mine that for good government you need a good opposition and some of the more lamentable governments in my lifetime have presided in the absence of a credible opposition to hold them to account.
The Blair Government at the time of Iraq springs to mind but there are many other equally striking examples that can be cited.
I guess in Liz Truss we're gonna find out what an IDS ministry would have been like (god help us all)
Tugendhat is another one who can help the Tories longer term, like Hunt and Mordaunt.
They will also probably need to bring back some of the people exiled in the Hard Brexit Stalinist purges, like Dominic Grieve and Rory Stewart. An English nationalist/Hard Brexiter party might separate off, but that might actually be a more healthy thing for both in the longer-term.
Kwasi has a big fan club on here about 10 years ago.
Who knew then that in 2022 he's be instrumental in sparking a run on Sterling, massive interest rate hikes and a probable housing collapse... All within his first month as CotE...
Always remember how unpopular the Tories were in 1981. 18 months later they won a big landslide.
Very different feel now to 1981. Plus, not much likelihood of Argentina invading the Falklands, nor is North Sea Oil coming to the rescue.
It wasn't just the Falklands and oil. The Tory voteshare was lower in 1983 than in 1979. A huge factor in why they got such a big majority in 1983 was the SNP. But I doubt Labour is about to split again any time soon.
During the leadership campaign a trait that was flagged up briefly about the Truss way of doing business, but soon forgotten, was she would announce a bonkers idea and then u-turn within hours when it became clear that no who wasn't on her staff or working at the IEA thought it remotely workable in the real world.
The regional public service pay idea being the prime example.
The 45p tax slash for the rich is the next u-turn i suspect if she governs as she campaigns.
I don't think she can U-turn on the 45p. It would be totally humiliating, embarrassing etc. All credibility gone.
Unless - she sacks Kwarteng and shouts "it was his idea, the muppet; he didn't even tell me."
Reminder: Ukraine is under martial law, operates military conscription, and has banned all men aged between 18 and 60 from leaving the country.
For defence some measures are more reasonable than when done for acts of naked, unprovoked aggression motivated by territorial acquisitiveness.
Its the difference between punching someone in self defence, and launching an unprovoked assault then complaining when my knuckles get bruised on the victim's skull.
Kwasi has a big fan club on here about 10 years ago.
Who knew then that in 2022 he's be instrumental in sparking a run on Sterling, massive interest rate hikes and a probable housing collapse... All within his first month as CotE...
Always remember how unpopular the Tories were in 1981. 18 months later they won a big landslide.
Always also remember how unpopular many governments were 18 months before an election, which they then lost.
Kwasi has a big fan club on here about 10 years ago.
Who knew then that in 2022 he's be instrumental in sparking a run on Sterling, massive interest rate hikes and a probable housing collapse... All within his first month as CotE...
Always remember how unpopular the Tories were in 1981. 18 months later they won a big landslide.
Very different feel now to 1981. Plus, not much likelihood of Argentina invading the Falklands, nor is North Sea Oil coming to the rescue.
It wasn't just the Falklands and oil. The Tory voteshare was lower in 1983 than in 1979. A huge factor in why they got such a big majority in 1983 was the SNP. But I doubt Labour is about to split again any time soon.
SDP. And no, it wasn’t. Without the SDP even more would have voted Tory.
Reminder: Ukraine is under martial law, operates military conscription, and has banned all men aged between 18 and 60 from leaving the country.
Because they are in a war for existential survival. Not conscripting young men to prolong a losing war of unprovoked aggression so that an inferior dictator can survive politically.
Tugendhat is another one who can help the Tories longer term, like Hunt and Mordaunt.
They will also probably need to bring back some of the people exiled in the Hard Brexit Stalinist purges, like Dominic Grieve and Rory Stewart. An English nationalist/Hard Brexiter party might separate off, but that might actually be a more healthy thing for both in the longer-term.
And Harper has said the right things all year.
Rory Stewart should absolutely be back in the mix. Dominic Grieve is an undemocratic extremist.
Tugendhat is another one who can help the Tories longer term, like Hunt and Mordaunt.
They will also probably need to bring back some of the people exiled in the Hard Brexit Stalinist purges, like Dominic Grieve and Rory Stewart. An English nationalist/Hard Brexiter party might separate off, but that might actually be a more healthy thing for both in the longer-term.
And Harper has said the right things all year.
Rory Stewart should absolutely be back in the mix. Dominic Grieve is an undemocratic extremist.
Why what's Grieve done? He strikes me as a bit of a rural CofE vicar...... I cannot see him as an undemocratic extremist
If things doent settle down by Christmas the Conservatives will not get anywhere near Labour for the rest of the election cycle. The election will be as good as a big Labour win by Jan 1 and wont change. The fact that interest rates were going to rise was inevitable but the perception will now be those rises are 100% to support the pound which the Truss government caused a run on. We all know the pound has been sinking against the dollar for some time, in many ways its impacts maybe havent really been linked in the public consciousness. It is now and the cause is seen as the government.
Ukraine. There are yet unconfirmed reports that one of the Russian front lines around the city of Lyman in Donetsk province has collapsed. The Ukrainians are attempting an encircling move on the city, a key transport hub. The could represent a very visible defeat because of one thing; Prisoners, lots of them, in one place. Whenever the Ukrainian offensive took off the Russians pushed reinforcements into the region including into the Lyman area. The question is, how many are potentially still in the pocket that could close? Some on the Russian side claimed at the weekend the best of their military bugged out already and left a rump of low grade troops there to meet their fate. Other reports have it that a significant group of Russian forces remain.
If the Ukrainians pull of this off the potential numbers of Russians trapped could be in excess of a couple of thousand, depending on who you believe. That is a big number to have as prisoners in one go. One of the most under reported things about the Russian withdrawals around Kiev a number of months back was the fact that significant Russian formations faced encirclement. They got out. Those in Lyman may not be so lucky and the attendant publicity of large numbers of Russians being marched off to POW status in one big column is going to sting.
Kwasi has a big fan club on here about 10 years ago.
Who knew then that in 2022 he's be instrumental in sparking a run on Sterling, massive interest rate hikes and a probable housing collapse... All within his first month as CotE...
Always remember how unpopular the Tories were in 1981. 18 months later they won a big landslide.
Very different feel now to 1981. Plus, not much likelihood of Argentina invading the Falklands, nor is North Sea Oil coming to the rescue.
I was thinking more of the economic situation in 1981, with the infamous occasion wrt 364 economists writing a letter to The Times criticising the government's policies, policies that actually worked out relatively well in the end. [I don't remember 1981 personally but I've read a lot about it].
45p is Liz Truss’s Poll-Tax. She can spend a few weeks burning up the rest of her government’s political capital trying to defend it. Or she can ditch it, and start to rebuild her economic strategy. Those are the options. Because this policy is politically indefensible. https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1574516866445611008
why? he's right.
I don't think it's true even though it's an absolutely terrible decision. It's a minor part of the overall package and it's not like it affects people directly - merely a completely ludicrous symbol of poor judgment that looked like a bung to your mates when it's hardly going to help growth much (I'm old enough to remember the revenue 50p raised being talked down). It's more like Black Wednesday in trying to get out of a bad position with a terrible, market defying policy stance - albeit one that's entirely the fault of the government this time, not being pegged to a currency wrongly. The markets aren't stupid. They know if the tax cuts happen, then they have costs to revenue. They know an increase in growth is uncertain, and reckon it's unlikely as Kwarteng and Truss's hardline theories about it creating growth on that scale are pretty out there even among many generally tax-cutting Conservatives, and there are other headwinds that mean it might not. Plus, inflation meaning the Bank of England are certain to raise interest rates again which will dampen the economic boost. So the chances of it working as announced Friday are pretty slim to none. But, perhaps there's a way that you could make it work with spending cuts - interest rates don't need to go up as much, deficit position improves. That's how it would work theoretically. Except anyone with an eye on the obligations caused by energy interventions and increased defence spending, the state of public services, likely increased costs for similar levels of services and the fact that there's not much left to cut from welfare/local government other than pensions, without telling the historically low people out of work to starve or councils to halt social care for an ageing population, knows that's politically toxic. And there's an election in two years. So even if Kwarteng decides to do it - as hinted at with an additional statement - and take that hit, he's likely out on his ear before can be realised. So of course anyone with an eye on UK debt and the pound doesn't believe it - even before we get to the fact that the Conservative Party has recently been a fratricidal basketcase and is now led by two people without much of a track record in the top relevant jobs. In the same way the country just wouldn't believe Corbyn's pledges because they defied common sense, why would you believe this will work and debt not shoot up, amid a recession - unless you are one of the few true contrarian believers in it?
Hmm. Thinking a little more about the BoE statement today. It really is very misjudged. The BoE’s credibility must be beyond question, yet the statements wording is, as was widely pointed out, ridiculous.
They clearly ARE hesitating. And HAVE BEEN hesitating.
It doesn’t look credible to me. The markets are clearly nervous.
They might, just, have got away with it, for now. But I’m really quite worried. For the BoE to lose credibility in the eyes of international investors would be a complete disaster for our economy.
@BergAslak British gas prices - another fall like today and the spot price will be at around the level where the price cap is costless. As others have pointed out, hedging complicates the picture, but over the 2-year freeze there should still be significant savings over initial estimates.
@BergAslak British gas prices - another fall like today and the spot price will be at around the level where the price cap is costless. As others have pointed out, hedging complicates the picture, but over the 2-year freeze there should still be significant savings over initial estimates.
Reminder: Ukraine is under martial law, operates military conscription, and has banned all men aged between 18 and 60 from leaving the country.
Because they are in a war for existential survival. Not conscripting young men to prolong a losing war of unprovoked aggression so that an inferior dictator can survive politically.
Thank goodness nobody is conscripting elderly women to shorten an almost already-won defensive war they were provoked into so that a terribly superior dictator with a cut-glass accent could defenestrate himself economically.
You probably believe that most people in the five territories want where they live to be in the Ukraine. Because you have to.
What's your position, out of interest, regarding the many Ukrainian men aged between 18 and 60 who have illegally fled the country?
I doubt morale is that great right now in the Ukrainian army, except in the Azov Regiment maybe.
Reminder: Ukraine is under martial law, operates military conscription, and has banned all men aged between 18 and 60 from leaving the country.
Because they are in a war for existential survival. Not conscripting young men to prolong a losing war of unprovoked aggression so that an inferior dictator can survive politically.
Thank goodness nobody is conscripting elderly women to shorten an almost already-won defensive war they were provoked into so that a terribly superior dictator with a cut-glass accent could defenestrate himself economically.
You probably believe that most people in the five territories want where they live to be in the Ukraine. Because you have to.
What's your position, out of interest, regarding the many Ukrainian men aged between 18 and 60 who have illegally fled the country?
If they wanted to live in Russia they just fucking move there. Not a lot stopping them doing so since Ukraine became an independent state in the early 90s. Take a look at the actual LPR & DPR territories, how many people? Less than 10% of the Ukrainian population. If Ukraine had a wider problem with people elsewhere not wanting not to be part of its country then there would be a much bigger & geographically wider internal civil conflict going on.
Nevertheless - if you're Putin, it's not nice to see your (few) remaining backers walk away. In the last week, we've seen Serbia, Turkey and now North Korea distance themselves.
Kadyrov has been critical too. Gotta wonder whether the trial of the Azov Regiment guys will take place now that so many have been swapped. Splitting Kadyrov from Putin and from the Russian government more generally would be a big success for those who want to break Russia up but is unlikely to be on the cards.
Reminder: Ukraine is under martial law, operates military conscription, and has banned all men aged between 18 and 60 from leaving the country.
Because they are in a war for existential survival. Not conscripting young men to prolong a losing war of unprovoked aggression so that an inferior dictator can survive politically.
Thank goodness nobody is conscripting elderly women to shorten an almost already-won defensive war they were provoked into so that a terribly superior dictator with a cut-glass accent could defenestrate himself economically.
You probably believe that most people in the five territories want where they live to be in the Ukraine. Because you have to.
What's your position, out of interest, regarding the many Ukrainian men aged between 18 and 60 who have illegally fled the country?
I doubt morale is that great right now in the Ukrainian army, except in the Azov Regiment maybe.
Remind me what the results of the Ukrainian independence referendum was in 1991?
Reminder: Ukraine is under martial law, operates military conscription, and has banned all men aged between 18 and 60 from leaving the country.
Because they are in a war for existential survival. Not conscripting young men to prolong a losing war of unprovoked aggression so that an inferior dictator can survive politically.
Thank goodness nobody is conscripting elderly women to shorten an almost already-won defensive war they were provoked into so that a terribly superior dictator with a cut-glass accent could defenestrate himself economically.
You probably believe that most people in the five territories want where they live to be in the Ukraine. Because you have to.
What's your position, out of interest, regarding the many Ukrainian men aged between 18 and 60 who have illegally fled the country?
I doubt morale is that great right now in the Ukrainian army, except in the Azov Regiment maybe.
Remind me what the results of the Ukrainian independence referendum was in 1991?
Sure. And I'll remind you of the context too.
March 1991 Referendum in Ukraine supports staying in the USSR on "New Union" confederation terms.
August 1991 1) Coup in Moscow stops signing of New Union treaty; 2) The day after the coup was seen to be defeated (Gorbachev returns to Moscow), the Ukrainian government declares independence.
December 1991 1) Three weeks after the fall of the Berlin wall, the Ukrainian government manages to get around to holding another referendum, this time on whether or not to approve its August UDI, the day after state TV shows a film about the Holodomor; the referendum supports independence; 2) A week later, the Confederation of Independent States is formed by the governments of Russia, Belarus, and the Ukraine. (This is one of the last nails in the coffin of the USSR.)
At no point were the Russian-speaking areas of Ukraine asked whether they wanted to be in Russia or Ukraine. Why not? Quite simply because it wasn't an issue. There was no vote for, no vote against, because there was no vote on this at all.
But anyway this is like telling people in 1939 to remember what happened in 1908. Or perhaps it's more like telling people in 1943 to remember 1912. I can't do better than that because war has been going on in Donetsk and Luhansk for eight years whereas WW2 only lasted six. It's ridiculous to appeal to one of the referendum results in Ukraine 31 years ago and say it justifies the ongoing Ukrainian war effort to keep five regions in Ukraine.
Reminder: Ukraine is under martial law, operates military conscription, and has banned all men aged between 18 and 60 from leaving the country.
Because they are in a war for existential survival. Not conscripting young men to prolong a losing war of unprovoked aggression so that an inferior dictator can survive politically.
Thank goodness nobody is conscripting elderly women to shorten an almost already-won defensive war they were provoked into so that a terribly superior dictator with a cut-glass accent could defenestrate himself economically.
You probably believe that most people in the five territories want where they live to be in the Ukraine. Because you have to.
What's your position, out of interest, regarding the many Ukrainian men aged between 18 and 60 who have illegally fled the country?
I doubt morale is that great right now in the Ukrainian army, except in the Azov Regiment maybe.
It's not an "already won" defensive war. It is war that will ultimately be won by Ukraine but only after a huge amount of deaths among young men in their prime on both sides, not to mention horrific death and trauma among the civilian population. All because of the demented world view of a pathetic old man that is trying to cover up the fact he has run his country into the ground.
And yes, most people in the five occupied territories would like to live in Ukraine, which is why Russia, even during its reign of terror and intimidation, has to send soldiers door to door to get the result they want. It's the same reason Poles and Lithuanians and Finns don't want to be Russian either. It's less a proper country and more a criminal network of corruption around gas rents. Long term it will be nothing more than a Chinese puppet, especially after the demographic collapse after wiping out all its young men.
The shooter who murdered at least 11 children and four adults yesterday in Izhevsk, Udmurtia, is said to have had a swastika on his t-shirt. This symbol appears in at least one still photo, in red on a black shirt, counterclockwise and looking handpainted. (The Nazis generally used a clockwise version.) Dunno whether there's any footage of it being on his shirt when he entered the building.
I fear more incidents of this kind.
The FSB really are c***s in a way that many on the British right who enjoy going on about them have little clue about.
See the Moscow apartment block bombings of 1999 for reference.
With surging corporate bond yields I think we may see some big names fall. Morrisons and Asda are ones to watch. Very highly leveraged and junk bond ratings on the latter. Wouldn't be surprised if they weren't able to meet their servicing costs next year because the economy will be in the shit, inflation rampant and interest rates surging. People won't be spending money and they have a mountain of debt and will be facing annual servicing costs in excess of £1bn per year.
In general we could see a lot of those leveraged buyouts by PE fall apart soon and a lot of jobs lost as a result of perfectly healthy companies being loaded up with debt when money was cheap.
Yep: there's a lot of PE-backed firms that could find themselves in real trouble, real quickly.
"When Penny Cooke stepped on to the property ladder in her 20s, she remembers it being pretty easy. She had been leafing through the local paper when she spotted some flats being built in Didcot, the Oxfordshire town where she was born and lived. It was around 1980, and she bought her flat for “about £30,000”. Average UK property prices were then about £20,000. Average wages amounted to about £4,000 a year. So the average worker could buy the average house for about five times their salary.
“I also bought the flat on a 110% mortgage, so all my moving fees were covered and I didn’t even need a deposit,” says Cooke. Her first job was at a milk bottling plant in Didcot, which was named a few years ago as, statistically speaking, the most average town in England."
I think a big problem discussing the housing market with Boomers is that they genuinely have no frame of reference for how easy they had it VS how bad the situation is for most people under 40 right now.
"When Penny Cooke stepped on to the property ladder in her 20s, she remembers it being pretty easy. She had been leafing through the local paper when she spotted some flats being built in Didcot, the Oxfordshire town where she was born and lived. It was around 1980, and she bought her flat for “about £30,000”. Average UK property prices were then about £20,000. Average wages amounted to about £4,000 a year. So the average worker could buy the average house for about five times their salary.
“I also bought the flat on a 110% mortgage, so all my moving fees were covered and I didn’t even need a deposit,” says Cooke. Her first job was at a milk bottling plant in Didcot, which was named a few years ago as, statistically speaking, the most average town in England."
I think a big problem discussing the housing market with Boomers is that they genuinely have no frame of reference for how easy they had it VS how bad the situation is for most people under 40 right now.
“On the street, Christine Wood is waiting to see who will move into the house on the corner. She sees little evidence of the old spirit as she goes to bed alone, fearing the crime on her doorstep. She has endured extraordinary loss: her mother and brother died in a motorbike crash when she was 12. Her son died by suicide when he was 29. She has lost her husband – and her community. She would move but her own house isn’t worth much more than £25,000, which wouldn’t buy her a place anywhere else, or even pay rent for long. She says her faith is all she has left. “I do still believe God is going to step in and put the Earth right,” she says. In her lifetime? “I hope so.”
After Epstein Barr and MS, strong evidence that another viral infection can be causative of an autoimmune disease.
Type 1 Diabetes Onset Strongly Linked to Enterovirus Infection Type, Timing — Data support looking at enterovirus vaccination for prevention The link between enterovirus infection and type 1 diabetes appeared to be a strong one in a meta-analysis of molecular studies.
Across 48 abstracts on the topic, people with type 1 diabetes were nearly eight times more likely to have an enterovirus infection than those with normal pancreatic function (OR 7.99, 95% CI 4.92-13.00, P<0.00001), reported Sonia Isaacs, PhD candidate, of University of New South Wales in Australia, at the European Association for the Study of Diabetes (EASD) meeting.</i>
Reminder: Ukraine is under martial law, operates military conscription, and has banned all men aged between 18 and 60 from leaving the country.
Because they are in a war for existential survival. Not conscripting young men to prolong a losing war of unprovoked aggression so that an inferior dictator can survive politically.
Thank goodness nobody is conscripting elderly women to shorten an almost already-won defensive war they were provoked into so that a terribly superior dictator with a cut-glass accent could defenestrate himself economically.
You probably believe that most people in the five territories want where they live to be in the Ukraine. Because you have to.
What's your position, out of interest, regarding the many Ukrainian men aged between 18 and 60 who have illegally fled the country?
I doubt morale is that great right now in the Ukrainian army, except in the Azov Regiment maybe.
It's not an "already won" defensive war. It is war that will ultimately be won by Ukraine but only after a huge amount of deaths among young men in their prime on both sides, not to mention horrific death and trauma among the civilian population. All because of the demented world view of a pathetic old man that is trying to cover up the fact he has run his country into the ground.
And yes, most people in the five occupied territories would like to live in Ukraine, which is why Russia, even during its reign of terror and intimidation, has to send soldiers door to door to get the result they want. It's the same reason Poles and Lithuanians and Finns don't want to be Russian either. It's less a proper country and more a criminal network of corruption around gas rents. Long term it will be nothing more than a Chinese puppet, especially after the demographic collapse after wiping out all its young men.
A more pertinent question might be when, if ever, we’re likely to see referendums in any of Russia’s numerous colonial territories on whether they want to remain part of Russia.
"When Penny Cooke stepped on to the property ladder in her 20s, she remembers it being pretty easy. She had been leafing through the local paper when she spotted some flats being built in Didcot, the Oxfordshire town where she was born and lived. It was around 1980, and she bought her flat for “about £30,000”. Average UK property prices were then about £20,000. Average wages amounted to about £4,000 a year. So the average worker could buy the average house for about five times their salary.
“I also bought the flat on a 110% mortgage, so all my moving fees were covered and I didn’t even need a deposit,” says Cooke. Her first job was at a milk bottling plant in Didcot, which was named a few years ago as, statistically speaking, the most average town in England."
I think a big problem discussing the housing market with Boomers is that they genuinely have no frame of reference for how easy they had it VS how bad the situation is for most people under 40 right now.
Generally the 'boomers' will have seen their kids go through this problem.
I don't want to keep making this point again but a house price crash seems unlikely to lead to lower prices because of inflation, specifically build costs. The terraced house in Didcot, assuming it is 70 sqm, would now cost around £200k just to build because of massive increases in build costs due to rampant inflation in materials and labour costs.
A house price crash will not lead to more housing being built, it will stop the housebuilding industry, meaning less new supply, a massive economic depression, and more pressure on the existing housing stock.
"When Penny Cooke stepped on to the property ladder in her 20s, she remembers it being pretty easy. She had been leafing through the local paper when she spotted some flats being built in Didcot, the Oxfordshire town where she was born and lived. It was around 1980, and she bought her flat for “about £30,000”. Average UK property prices were then about £20,000. Average wages amounted to about £4,000 a year. So the average worker could buy the average house for about five times their salary.
“I also bought the flat on a 110% mortgage, so all my moving fees were covered and I didn’t even need a deposit,” says Cooke. Her first job was at a milk bottling plant in Didcot, which was named a few years ago as, statistically speaking, the most average town in England."
I think a big problem discussing the housing market with Boomers is that they genuinely have no frame of reference for how easy they had it VS how bad the situation is for most people under 40 right now.
The population was stuck at about 55 million between 1975 and 1985. That was the main reason it was easier at that time. Now the whole world wants to buy a property in the UK. No wonder it's so expensive.
It’s going to be fascinating watching the irresistible force of significantly higher borrowing costs (and the fiscal consequences) meet the immovable object of right wing ideology, in the context of dire poll ratings.
Their playbook dictates that they will now react by slashing the state. But can they get away with it?
I realise @Dynamo has an obsession with Nazis, so I thought I would put together a simple chart that we can all agree on to distinguish Governments with authoritarian/Nazi tendencies:
UK electricity, which represents less than 20% of its energy consumption.
Is electricity less than 20% of total UK energy consumption? That sounds low.
Yes, I’m not sure that’s right. And if we’re thinking about gas demand, then you should include heating and industrial use, but not transport, where it’s barely used.
"When Penny Cooke stepped on to the property ladder in her 20s, she remembers it being pretty easy. She had been leafing through the local paper when she spotted some flats being built in Didcot, the Oxfordshire town where she was born and lived. It was around 1980, and she bought her flat for “about £30,000”. Average UK property prices were then about £20,000. Average wages amounted to about £4,000 a year. So the average worker could buy the average house for about five times their salary.
“I also bought the flat on a 110% mortgage, so all my moving fees were covered and I didn’t even need a deposit,” says Cooke. Her first job was at a milk bottling plant in Didcot, which was named a few years ago as, statistically speaking, the most average town in England."
I think a big problem discussing the housing market with Boomers is that they genuinely have no frame of reference for how easy they had it VS how bad the situation is for most people under 40 right now.
The population was stuck at about 55 million between 1975 and 1985. That was the main reason it was easier at that time. Now the whole world wants to buy a property in the UK. No wonder it's so expensive.
With all due respect, I think that's simplistic.
Property price growth in the UK has tracked "affordability" (i.e. percentage of disposible income spent on mortgage + repayments), not population.
Hence, property prices grew far more during the twelve years from 1995 to 2007 (when the population grew fairly modestly) than during the period from 2007 to 2020 (when it grew a lot).
It’s going to be fascinating watching the irresistible force of significantly higher borrowing costs (and the fiscal consequences) meet the immovable object of right wing ideology, in the context of dire poll ratings.
Their playbook dictates that they will now react by slashing the state. But can they get away with it?
I’d love to be a fly in the wall in 55 Tufton St.
And any spending cuts that are found are going to be made toxic by adding "to pay for tax cuts for the very fattest of cats". Not strictly accurate but good enough to put on the side of a bus.
UK electricity, which represents less than 20% of its energy consumption.
Is electricity less than 20% of total UK energy consumption? That sounds low.
Yes, I’m not sure that’s right. And if we’re thinking about gas demand, then you should include heating and industrial use, but not transport, where it’s barely used.
This is from the UK Government in 2020:
From this, I would estimate that 45-60% of total UK energy supply comes (one way or another) via electricity.
I wonder if there has ever been a policy that has boomeranged so quickly and cleanly as Kwazi’s stamp duty cut?
Engineer a little house price boom, he thought. Within a few days, mortgage rates have gone through the roof….
That is probably wrong, since interest rate rises were part of Trussanomics and not an unforeseen by-product (was it Minford or Redwood who said seven per cent?), and did Kwasi really want a house price boom?
I'm not convinced by Dan Hodges fingering the 45p rate either.
I would guess that the next stage of the amateur 'neoliberal shock therapy' we are being subject to is an 'urgent spending review', but its hard to see anything they can cut without dire political consequences. Interesting times.
I would guess that the next stage of the amateur 'neoliberal shock therapy' we are being subject to is an 'urgent spending review', but its hard to see anything they can cut without dire political consequences. Interesting times.
I suspect Wallace's boasts in the Sunday Telegraph about future big jumps in Defence spending are looking a little optimistic
It’s going to be fascinating watching the irresistible force of significantly higher borrowing costs (and the fiscal consequences) meet the immovable object of right wing ideology, in the context of dire poll ratings.
Their playbook dictates that they will now react by slashing the state. But can they get away with it?
I’d love to be a fly in the wall in 55 Tufton St.
And any spending cuts that are found are going to be made toxic by adding "to pay for tax cuts for the very fattest of cats". Not strictly accurate but good enough to put on the side of a bus.
Stupid, greedy decision.
Greedy indeed.
Even the most ardent lefty has to admire the self restraint of the British right, and its incredible success since 2007/8.
I would guess that the next stage of the amateur 'neoliberal shock therapy' we are being subject to is an 'urgent spending review', but its hard to see anything they can cut without dire political consequences. Interesting times.
I suspect Wallace's boasts in the Sunday Telegraph about future big jumps in Defence spending are looking a little optimistic
We remarked weeks ago that LizT had quietly pushed her 3% pledge out to the end of the decade.
It’s going to be fascinating watching the irresistible force of significantly higher borrowing costs (and the fiscal consequences) meet the immovable object of right wing ideology, in the context of dire poll ratings.
Their playbook dictates that they will now react by slashing the state. But can they get away with it?
I’d love to be a fly in the wall in 55 Tufton St.
The plan looks to me to be no action on public sector budgets at a time of 10% inflation. That squeeze will be in real terms much worse than any austerity period since the war. Right wing dogma met.
I am seriously looking at bringing forward my retirement, just doing the sums at to when the timing is most opportune.
I would guess that the next stage of the amateur 'neoliberal shock therapy' we are being subject to is an 'urgent spending review', but its hard to see anything they can cut without dire political consequences. Interesting times.
No need for a spending review, just let inflation do its work on existing budgets.
It’s going to be fascinating watching the irresistible force of significantly higher borrowing costs (and the fiscal consequences) meet the immovable object of right wing ideology, in the context of dire poll ratings.
Their playbook dictates that they will now react by slashing the state. But can they get away with it?
I’d love to be a fly in the wall in 55 Tufton St.
And any spending cuts that are found are going to be made toxic by adding "to pay for tax cuts for the very fattest of cats". Not strictly accurate but good enough to put on the side of a bus.
Stupid, greedy decision.
Greedy indeed.
Even the most ardent lefty has to admire the self restraint of the British right, and its incredible success since 2007/8.
They got lazy and, as you said, greedy.
Fools.
Is greed the right word, since politicians will not benefit? Greed on the part of Tory-backers, perhaps. Lazy, yes, because Kwasi had not thought it through, but mainly stupid. Economically insignificant but politically poisonous, as Stuartinromford remarked on this thread.
just been trying to find KK's PHd on economics its rather snappy title "Political thought of the recoinage crisis of 1695-7" isnt available for public consumption.... so I suppose there's a precedent for his silence on currencies...
When was the last time we went from a landslide to a landslide? Must be some good odds on that
1900 (Con landside) > 1906 Liberal landslide.
Actually it was 1935 to 1945.
But the circumstances were, to put it mildly, unusual.
Those were two of the three occasions in the twentieth century where a substantial majority for one party was replaced in a single section with a substantial majority for the other (the third being of course 1970).
Comments
So, if the Conservative aim is now to minimise the incoming defeat, what should they do?
Bonus points if it can be done while leaving Truss in office.
Who knew then that in 2022 he's be instrumental in sparking a run on Sterling, massive interest rate hikes and a probable housing collapse... All within his first month as CotE...
Or...
2. Call an election now. On the basis the polls are only going to get worse.
Not sure there's a lot Con can do at this point but not sending the economy into oblivion might be a start...
The markets issued an ultimatum, this slight rally is on basis we EXPECT you to take action.
Despite “no hesitation in taking action” no action was taken.
The markets had their answer.
1974 is a much more valid comparison to the current situation IMO with both Lab and Con pretty naff, the country in terrible economic strife and lots of global shocks adding to the general sense of crisis.
At least the music was better then mind...
And that’s what this is all about really.
They will also probably need to bring back some of the people exiled in the Hard Brexit Stalinist purges, like Dominic Grieve and Rory Stewart. An English nationalist/Hard Brexiter party might separate off, but that might actually be a more healthy thing for both in the longer-term.
https://youtu.be/oOWeIVnu6B0
The Blair Government at the time of Iraq springs to mind but there are many other equally striking examples that can be cited.
In the shorter-term though, they probably need either opposition from now or Hunt to at least reduce the level of the defeat a bit.
How they managed to end up saddling themselves (and us) with this waste of space I have no idea...
Anyway, how's the draft dodging going? Good luck!
https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/science/nasa-spacecraft-closes-in-on-asteroid-for-head-on-collision/
Its the difference between punching someone in self defence, and launching an unprovoked assault then complaining when my knuckles get bruised on the victim's skull.
https://prod.berliner-zeitung.de/news/druckabfall-in-nord-stream-1-kapazitaet-auf-null-gesunken-li.271021
Ukraine. There are yet unconfirmed reports that one of the Russian front lines around the city of Lyman in Donetsk province has collapsed. The Ukrainians are attempting an encircling move on the city, a key transport hub. The could represent a very visible defeat because of one thing; Prisoners, lots of them, in one place. Whenever the Ukrainian offensive took off the Russians pushed reinforcements into the region including into the Lyman area. The question is, how many are potentially still in the pocket that could close? Some on the Russian side claimed at the weekend the best of their military bugged out already and left a rump of low grade troops there to meet their fate. Other reports have it that a significant group of Russian forces remain.
If the Ukrainians pull of this off the potential numbers of Russians trapped could be in excess of a couple of thousand, depending on who you believe. That is a big number to have as prisoners in one go. One of the most under reported things about the Russian withdrawals around Kiev a number of months back was the fact that significant Russian formations faced encirclement. They got out. Those in Lyman may not be so lucky and the attendant publicity of large numbers of Russians being marched off to POW status in one big column is going to sting.
They clearly ARE hesitating. And HAVE BEEN hesitating.
It doesn’t look credible to me. The markets are clearly nervous.
They might, just, have got away with it, for now. But I’m really quite worried. For the BoE to lose credibility in the eyes of international investors would be a complete disaster for our economy.
See - https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Natural-Gas-Prices-Continue-Plunge-As-Europe-Fills-Up-Ahead-Of-Schedule.html
You probably believe that most people in the five territories want where they live to be in the Ukraine. Because you have to.
What's your position, out of interest, regarding the many Ukrainian men aged between 18 and 60 who have illegally fled the country?
I doubt morale is that great right now in the Ukrainian army, except in the Azov Regiment maybe.
Emilia-Romagna - U03 (Reggio nell’Emilia)
Emilia-Romagna - U05 (Imola)
Emilia-Romagna - U06 (Bologna)
Emilia-Romagna - U07 (Carpi)
Lazio 1 - U01 (Roma : Municipio i)
Lazio 1 - U04 (Roma : Municipio Vii)
Liguria - U03 (Genova : Municipio i - Centro Est)
Lombardia 1 - U07 (Milano : Nil 20 - Loreto)
Lombardia 1 - U09 (Milano : Nil 21 - Buones Aires - Venezia)
Piemonte 1 - U01 (Torino : Circoscrizione 2 - Santa Rita - Mirafiori Nord - Mirafiori Sud)
Toscana - U07 (Firenze)
Toscana - U08 (Scandicci)
Vallée d'Aoste
March 1991
Referendum in Ukraine supports staying in the USSR on "New Union" confederation terms.
August 1991
1) Coup in Moscow stops signing of New Union treaty;
2) The day after the coup was seen to be defeated (Gorbachev returns to Moscow), the Ukrainian government declares independence.
December 1991
1) Three weeks after the fall of the Berlin wall, the Ukrainian government manages to get around to holding another referendum, this time on whether or not to approve its August UDI, the day after state TV shows a film about the Holodomor; the referendum supports independence;
2) A week later, the Confederation of Independent States is formed by the governments of Russia, Belarus, and the Ukraine. (This is one of the last nails in the coffin of the USSR.)
At no point were the Russian-speaking areas of Ukraine asked whether they wanted to be in Russia or Ukraine. Why not? Quite simply because it wasn't an issue. There was no vote for, no vote against, because there was no vote on this at all.
But anyway this is like telling people in 1939 to remember what happened in 1908. Or perhaps it's more like telling people in 1943 to remember 1912. I can't do better than that because war has been going on in Donetsk and Luhansk for eight years whereas WW2 only lasted six. It's ridiculous to appeal to one of the referendum results in Ukraine 31 years ago and say it justifies the ongoing Ukrainian war effort to keep five regions in Ukraine.
And yes, most people in the five occupied territories would like to live in Ukraine, which is why Russia, even during its reign of terror and intimidation, has to send soldiers door to door to get the result they want. It's the same reason Poles and Lithuanians and Finns don't want to be Russian either. It's less a proper country and more a criminal network of corruption around gas rents. Long term it will be nothing more than a Chinese puppet, especially after the demographic collapse after wiping out all its young men.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-63042132
I fear more incidents of this kind.
The FSB really are c***s in a way that many on the British right who enjoy going on about them have little clue about.
See the Moscow apartment block bombings of 1999 for reference.
Those leadership debate thingies were absolutely shocking.
https://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk
“I also bought the flat on a 110% mortgage, so all my moving fees were covered and I didn’t even need a deposit,” says Cooke. Her first job was at a milk bottling plant in Didcot, which was named a few years ago as, statistically speaking, the most average town in England."
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2022/sep/27/25000-wreck-25m-home-indoor-pool-three-house-sales-modern-britain
I think a big problem discussing the housing market with Boomers is that they genuinely have no frame of reference for how easy they had it VS how bad the situation is for most people under 40 right now.
That is so desperately sad.
Type 1 Diabetes Onset Strongly Linked to Enterovirus Infection Type, Timing
— Data support looking at enterovirus vaccination for prevention
The link between enterovirus infection and type 1 diabetes appeared to be a strong one in a meta-analysis of molecular studies.
Across 48 abstracts on the topic, people with type 1 diabetes were nearly eight times more likely to have an enterovirus infection than those with normal pancreatic function (OR 7.99, 95% CI 4.92-13.00, P<0.00001), reported Sonia Isaacs, PhD candidate, of University of New South Wales in Australia, at the European Association for the Study of Diabetes (EASD) meeting.</i>
I don't want to keep making this point again but a house price crash seems unlikely to lead to lower prices because of inflation, specifically build costs. The terraced house in Didcot, assuming it is 70 sqm, would now cost around £200k just to build because of massive increases in build costs due to rampant inflation in materials and labour costs.
A house price crash will not lead to more housing being built, it will stop the housebuilding industry, meaning less new supply, a massive economic depression, and more pressure on the existing housing stock.
Engineer a little house price boom, he thought. Within a few days, mortgage rates have gone through the roof….
Hitherto, the Kremlin denied connections to the paramilitary group. Now, Prigozhin admitted he founded Wagner in 2014 "to send competent fighters to Donbas"
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1574564477940350979
Their playbook dictates that they will now react by slashing the state. But can they get away with it?
I’d love to be a fly in the wall in 55 Tufton St.
Truss down to 12 on Ladbrokes to be out this year. Conservative MPs need to realise, if they want to act, they have a very narrow window.
Pressure is now dropping in both lines of Nord Stream 1 as well.
Danish authorities confirmed earlier this evening that pressure had dropped in Nord Stream 2 after gas started leaking into the sea.
The Nord Stream operator says they don’t know what’s wrong with NS1.
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1574489038714769413
And if we’re thinking about gas demand, then you should include heating and industrial use, but not transport, where it’s barely used.
Property price growth in the UK has tracked "affordability" (i.e. percentage of disposible income spent on mortgage + repayments), not population.
Hence, property prices grew far more during the twelve years from 1995 to 2007 (when the population grew fairly modestly) than during the period from 2007 to 2020 (when it grew a lot).
Stupid, greedy decision.
From this, I would estimate that 45-60% of total UK energy supply comes (one way or another) via electricity.
I'm not convinced by Dan Hodges fingering the 45p rate either.
Even the most ardent lefty has to admire the self restraint of the British right, and its incredible success since 2007/8.
They got lazy and, as you said, greedy.
Fools.
dogma met.
I am seriously looking at bringing forward my retirement, just doing the sums at to when the timing is most opportune.
But the circumstances were, to put it mildly, unusual.
Those were two of the three occasions in the twentieth century where a substantial majority for one party was replaced in a single section with a substantial majority for the other (the third being of course 1970).