The other big big problem the Tories have is this growth drive.... if we get growth, even supercharged growth, where is that money going? The public don't believe it will reach them. Probably because it won't. Thats where Toryism and populism diverge.
Can't even see growth. Never mind where it is going
No, which makes the whole clusterfuck just a weird, damaging folly, rammed in at the last minute and then 'no comment' to a frightened and confused electorate. I mean who is advising them? Who can possibly have thought this would end well? Its incoherent drivel
The IR35 changes will create a more flexible workforce but that really is stuff round the edges and will have some interesting consequences - one of which will be desperate agencies pretending everything is outside as it will be the only way to find HGV drivers...
With surging corporate bond yields I think we may see some big names fall. Morrisons and Asda are ones to watch. Very highly leveraged and junk bond ratings on the latter. Wouldn't be surprised if they weren't able to meet their servicing costs next year because the economy will be in the shit, inflation rampant and interest rates surging. People won't be spending money and they have a mountain of debt and will be facing annual servicing costs in excess of £1bn per year.
In general we could see a lot of those leveraged buyouts by PE fall apart soon and a lot of jobs lost as a result of perfectly healthy companies being loaded up with debt when money was cheap.
I wont weep for private equity vultures
Me neither, just pointing out that we may see some very big names fall because of this and the government will get the blame for that too. It may finally force the regulator to ban leveraged buy outs.
The obvious ones for me are Morrisons / Asda and Boots. Who else falls into the same category (I'm asking because I can't think of any which is clearly wrong but my mind is blank)...
Boots will be fine, it's still owned by Walgreens who won't let it go bankrupt and they don't carry a lot of debt. Had the PE purchase gone through earlier this year then they'd be in trouble too.
Radical thought. The NHS is not as good as people think it is, or should be. There are different models, some close at hand on the continent. They use insurance systems, and the state supports the low paid etc. Seems to work well.
I don’t think the Tories could ever introduce it. But what about Labour? Sav3 the NHS by changing the way it’s paid for?
That thought is so radical I've only heard it expressed several hundred times on here. The kicker is usually that those different models tend to cost more per head than the NHS so who is going to pay the extra?
45p is Liz Truss’s Poll-Tax. She can spend a few weeks burning up the rest of her government’s political capital trying to defend it. Or she can ditch it, and start to rebuild her economic strategy. Those are the options. Because this policy is politically indefensible. https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1574516866445611008
With surging corporate bond yields I think we may see some big names fall. Morrisons and Asda are ones to watch. Very highly leveraged and junk bond ratings on the latter. Wouldn't be surprised if they weren't able to meet their servicing costs next year because the economy will be in the shit, inflation rampant and interest rates surging. People won't be spending money and they have a mountain of debt and will be facing annual servicing costs in excess of £1bn per year.
In general we could see a lot of those leveraged buyouts by PE fall apart soon and a lot of jobs lost as a result of perfectly healthy companies being loaded up with debt when money was cheap.
I wont weep for private equity vultures
Me neither, just pointing out that we may see some very big names fall because of this and the government will get the blame for that too. It may finally force the regulator to ban leveraged buy outs.
The obvious ones for me are Morrisons / Asda and Boots. Who else falls into the same category (I'm asking because I can't think of any which is clearly wrong but my mind is blank)...
This is the second poll with Labour on 45%, a score that Labour managed many times under Miliband's leadership, but they only once went one point better to 46%.
The thing that stands out to me, still, is not publishing anything from the OBR. It reminds me of something that is said about the Russians, that they will lie even when they know that you know they are lying, as with the nonsense over Salisbury Cathedral.
Not publishing the OBR forecasts feels like the same sort of thing. They know that we know it's because they will be terrible, but they weren't going to publish them anyway. It shows complete contempt.
The irony is that the Government has told us how great bankers are, give 'em back their big bonuses, and they're all about how the market can deliver... and the bankers and the market have clearly said they're a shower of piss.
What has struck me from talking to friends and colleagues in the market, people who will get bigger bonuses and pay less tax as a result of the special fiscal operation and so should be the people supporting it even if nobody else does, is how none of them think the government is doing the right thing. They all think it is total madness and can't see what the strategy is. I've actually been quite heartened and surprised by the level of contempt on display. I really do think the events of the last few days mark a decisive shift in the UK's political dynamics.
Good to hear and hope you're right. Think you might be. But ... let's ask it ... will they vote Labour next time if it means they pay more tax?
Most of them won't, I don't think. They'll not vote. A lot of them are foreign and can't vote anyway. But I think the point is that the debate has moved on and even the beneficiaries of Truss's reheated eighties voodoo economics don't buy it. I'm relieved because I took one look at Truss and thought she would be a total disaster for the Tories. It's good to know I am not totally lacking in judgement.
The louder the squealing from the left, the more certain @KwasiKwarteng and @trussliz will be that they have got this right. They are truly creating an aspiration nation.
With surging corporate bond yields I think we may see some big names fall. Morrisons and Asda are ones to watch. Very highly leveraged and junk bond ratings on the latter. Wouldn't be surprised if they weren't able to meet their servicing costs next year because the economy will be in the shit, inflation rampant and interest rates surging. People won't be spending money and they have a mountain of debt and will be facing annual servicing costs in excess of £1bn per year.
In general we could see a lot of those leveraged buyouts by PE fall apart soon and a lot of jobs lost as a result of perfectly healthy companies being loaded up with debt when money was cheap.
I wont weep for private equity vultures
Me neither, just pointing out that we may see some very big names fall because of this and the government will get the blame for that too. It may finally force the regulator to ban leveraged buy outs.
The obvious ones for me are Morrisons / Asda and Boots. Who else falls into the same category (I'm asking because I can't think of any which is clearly wrong but my mind is blank)...
Boots will be fine, it's still owned by Walgreens who won't let it go bankrupt and they don't carry a lot of debt. Had the PE purchase gone through earlier this year then they'd be in trouble too.
Boots falling would need a nationalisation event me thinks, at least for the chain of high street pharmacies and associated supply chain.
With surging corporate bond yields I think we may see some big names fall. Morrisons and Asda are ones to watch. Very highly leveraged and junk bond ratings on the latter. Wouldn't be surprised if they weren't able to meet their servicing costs next year because the economy will be in the shit, inflation rampant and interest rates surging. People won't be spending money and they have a mountain of debt and will be facing annual servicing costs in excess of £1bn per year.
In general we could see a lot of those leveraged buyouts by PE fall apart soon and a lot of jobs lost as a result of perfectly healthy companies being loaded up with debt when money was cheap.
It's surprising how expensive Morrisons has got - to the extent that we now shop at Sainsburys as it's cheaper - even though Sainsbury's is an awful store...
Depends what you buy at Morrisons. I often drop by as it is next to the hospital. I was in the Co-op today, and saw a lot of price rises on staples.
Easy for folk like Mrs Foxy and me to switch down in the supermarkets, much tougher to do so if already eating the unbranded value ranges already.
I do a fair amount of shopping at a Lidl as it happens to be 300 yards from my house, although get Sainsbury's delivery for heavy and bulky stuff. Lidl is becoming seriously busy these days.
The louder the squealing from the left, the more certain @KwasiKwarteng and @trussliz will be that they have got this right. They are truly creating an aspiration nation.
Hahahaha
The 'upsets the right people' approach to politics which is, always, utterly moronic. Yes, opponents will oppose, but you still need to see if they have a point. Especially when some of your own side are opposing.
The louder the squealing from the left, the more certain @KwasiKwarteng and @trussliz will be that they have got this right. They are truly creating an aspiration nation.
Hahahaha
She seems to have confused squealing with the sound someone makes as they try not to die laughing....
The louder the squealing from the left, the more certain @KwasiKwarteng and @trussliz will be that they have got this right. They are truly creating an aspiration nation.
Hahahaha
She seems to have confused squealing with the sound someone makes as they try not to die laughing....
Or perhaps the sound Ms Truss makes when she is laughing?
This story is a complete insignificance compared to the Federal Reserve, a body that hasn't even been elected to rule the US, let alone the UK, telling the UK Chancellor to change his policy, in public. It is an international outrage.
It would be outrageous if the Fed wasn't both correct, and more in tune with the British voters than our government.
Actually it would be just as outrageous if either or both of those things were true. And it's quite pathetic to use such suppositions to excuse the intervention.
Lol! Your beloved Truss is a dud; worse than that, she's a dangerous dud.
Your neoliberal fantasies are tanking the economy more quickly than even their strongest critics expected.
Spare your outrage for this shocking excuse of a government.
The only thing that can save the Conservative Party in the medium term is an electoral evisceration so complete that they have to rebuild from scratch.
I think we need something else frankly. They're corrupt, they are stupid, they are inept, they are idiotic, they spent weeks and weeks in the teeth of a crisis having pissing contests. And we cannot, cannot, cannot let Labour have a massive majority. Something, Someone needs to step up
I am not a Labour voter by any means. Labour are probably the party I have voted for less often than any other, even the Greens. The Tories (as was, pre-2015) were probably the party I voted for the most.
But if Labour are the price of getting rid of this shower then so be it. And if Labour do enact PR then I will definitely be voting for them.
It is clear that the system needs to change. FPTP is no longer fit for purpose. It only worked when politicians had integrity and the guts to face the public down for the good of the country rather than their party. The Boris's, Truss's and Corbyns have shown how badly reform is needed.
Now Starmer is heading for a majority he will file PR in a bottom drawer and never get it out again
Nope - not that I can ask anyone until the weekend but I suspect PR is firmly in the plan for Year 1 of a Labour Government.
They may not always get a majority but the Tories (as currently exist) never will and that is definitely a priority at the moment...
It isn't, Labour will not want to hand the balance of power to the LDs most of the time if they can win a majority themselves. The LDs of course can go with the Tories too as 2010 proved. It would also give seats to the Greens at Labour expense as well as Farage
Did you consider the Little Green Men from Proxima Centauri Party?
Carnyx does have a point HY. Do the Tories even exist under PR. Starmer jettisons the left, who didn’t even have enough votes to nominate Corbyn, but Conservative Party splits too, which we know as fact because it’s already happened.
It’s not a problem with Conservatism, such as you and many other PBers believe in, it’s a rise in Libertarian Economics, Anti woke, and Right wing populism infesting the Conservative brand that doesn’t show respect in institutions and counterbalances conservatism is founded on, that are all pulling the Conservative party apart right now, and have been for some time.
They arent the same thing.
I didn’t say they were. I said “That THEY ALL are pulling the Conservative Party apart right now.”
Obviously Ukrainian military propaganda but this is a fascinating video highlighting how the war in Ukraine is being fought. No commentary but just watch and learn.
With surging corporate bond yields I think we may see some big names fall. Morrisons and Asda are ones to watch. Very highly leveraged and junk bond ratings on the latter. Wouldn't be surprised if they weren't able to meet their servicing costs next year because the economy will be in the shit, inflation rampant and interest rates surging. People won't be spending money and they have a mountain of debt and will be facing annual servicing costs in excess of £1bn per year.
In general we could see a lot of those leveraged buyouts by PE fall apart soon and a lot of jobs lost as a result of perfectly healthy companies being loaded up with debt when money was cheap.
It's surprising how expensive Morrisons has got - to the extent that we now shop at Sainsburys as it's cheaper - even though Sainsbury's is an awful store...
Depends what you buy at Morrisons. I often drop by as it is next to the hospital. I was in the Co-op today, and saw a lot of price rises on staples.
Easy for folk like Mrs Foxy and me to switch down in the supermarkets, much tougher to do so if already eating the unbranded value ranges already.
I do a fair amount of shopping at a Lidl as it happens to be 300 yards from my house, although get Sainsbury's delivery for heavy and bulky stuff. Lidl is becoming seriously busy these days.
We have a very large Aldi near us (it's next to the regional Head Office so not surprising). That is busy all the time nowadays with 3 to 4 tills open all the time (it used to be 1 / 2)...
Radical thought. The NHS is not as good as people think it is, or should be. There are different models, some close at hand on the continent. They use insurance systems, and the state supports the low paid etc. Seems to work well.
I don’t think the Tories could ever introduce it. But what about Labour? Sav3 the NHS by changing the way it’s paid for?
Labour changing the NHS model would be the creme de la creme of Nixon Goes To China moments.
I went to Aldi for the first time this summer as it was the only supermarket in the town centre of the place we were staying. It was a weird experience: the aisles were only a quarter full, and there was a lot of weird brands, but I got decent ingredients. The wine was a bit of a random number generator: I bought two whites for the same price. One was delicious, the other downright weird.
With surging corporate bond yields I think we may see some big names fall. Morrisons and Asda are ones to watch. Very highly leveraged and junk bond ratings on the latter. Wouldn't be surprised if they weren't able to meet their servicing costs next year because the economy will be in the shit, inflation rampant and interest rates surging. People won't be spending money and they have a mountain of debt and will be facing annual servicing costs in excess of £1bn per year.
In general we could see a lot of those leveraged buyouts by PE fall apart soon and a lot of jobs lost as a result of perfectly healthy companies being loaded up with debt when money was cheap.
I wont weep for private equity vultures
Me neither, just pointing out that we may see some very big names fall because of this and the government will get the blame for that too. It may finally force the regulator to ban leveraged buy outs.
The obvious ones for me are Morrisons / Asda and Boots. Who else falls into the same category (I'm asking because I can't think of any which is clearly wrong but my mind is blank)...
With surging corporate bond yields I think we may see some big names fall. Morrisons and Asda are ones to watch. Very highly leveraged and junk bond ratings on the latter. Wouldn't be surprised if they weren't able to meet their servicing costs next year because the economy will be in the shit, inflation rampant and interest rates surging. People won't be spending money and they have a mountain of debt and will be facing annual servicing costs in excess of £1bn per year.
In general we could see a lot of those leveraged buyouts by PE fall apart soon and a lot of jobs lost as a result of perfectly healthy companies being loaded up with debt when money was cheap.
It's surprising how expensive Morrisons has got - to the extent that we now shop at Sainsburys as it's cheaper - even though Sainsbury's is an awful store...
Depends what you buy at Morrisons. I often drop by as it is next to the hospital. I was in the Co-op today, and saw a lot of price rises on staples.
Easy for folk like Mrs Foxy and me to switch down in the supermarkets, much tougher to do so if already eating the unbranded value ranges already.
I do a fair amount of shopping at a Lidl as it happens to be 300 yards from my house, although get Sainsbury's delivery for heavy and bulky stuff. Lidl is becoming seriously busy these days.
Fruit and veg is generally good at Lidl, and their wines fairly drinkable.
With surging corporate bond yields I think we may see some big names fall. Morrisons and Asda are ones to watch. Very highly leveraged and junk bond ratings on the latter. Wouldn't be surprised if they weren't able to meet their servicing costs next year because the economy will be in the shit, inflation rampant and interest rates surging. People won't be spending money and they have a mountain of debt and will be facing annual servicing costs in excess of £1bn per year.
In general we could see a lot of those leveraged buyouts by PE fall apart soon and a lot of jobs lost as a result of perfectly healthy companies being loaded up with debt when money was cheap.
It's surprising how expensive Morrisons has got - to the extent that we now shop at Sainsburys as it's cheaper - even though Sainsbury's is an awful store...
5 live business recently compared a basket of essential from Morrisons and Lidl and Lidl were 40 % cheaper
I would seriously expect Morrisons to go before Asda but it's highly likely both will go in the next 2 years and I suspect no one in Government is thinking through the consequences of 1 or other disappearing even if it's just for a week or so while someone rescues them...
The Truss / Minford view that low interest rates repress productivity and encourage a debt fuelled rentier economy may not be entirely wrong but knocking the legs out from under one economic model (low interest rates, tight fiscal) and transitioning to another (high interest rates, loose fiscal) in the middle of an energy crisis is reminiscent of the 'shock therapy' unleashed on the USSR in the '90s and the lack of awareness on the consequences for ordinary people.
Radical thought. The NHS is not as good as people think it is, or should be. There are different models, some close at hand on the continent. They use insurance systems, and the state supports the low paid etc. Seems to work well.
I don’t think the Tories could ever introduce it. But what about Labour? Sav3 the NHS by changing the way it’s paid for?
Labour changing the NHS model would be the creme de la creme of Nixon Goes To China moments.
iirc the Dutch did this in recent times. It took ten years of debate and discussion and reviews etc etc.
The other big big problem the Tories have is this growth drive.... if we get growth, even supercharged growth, where is that money going? The public don't believe it will reach them. Probably because it won't. Thats where Toryism and populism diverge.
Can't even see growth. Never mind where it is going
No, which makes the whole clusterfuck just a weird, damaging folly, rammed in at the last minute and then 'no comment' to a frightened and confused electorate. I mean who is advising them? Who can possibly have thought this would end well? Its incoherent drivel
This is where your chief of staff pick is important, where you are pleased to lean on the experience of the civil service leader at the Treasury etc.
The louder the squealing from the left, the more certain @KwasiKwarteng and @trussliz will be that they have got this right. They are truly creating an aspiration nation.
Hahahaha
She seems to have confused squealing with the sound someone makes as they try not to die laughing....
Or perhaps the sound Ms Truss makes when she is laughing?
The "left" now includes the hard faced bastards from the gilt hedge funds?
The louder the squealing from the left, the more certain @KwasiKwarteng and @trussliz will be that they have got this right. They are truly creating an aspiration nation.
This is the second poll with Labour on 45%, a score that Labour managed many times under Miliband's leadership, but they only once went one point better to 46%.
The thing that stands out to me, still, is not publishing anything from the OBR. It reminds me of something that is said about the Russians, that they will lie even when they know that you know they are lying, as with the nonsense over Salisbury Cathedral.
Not publishing the OBR forecasts feels like the same sort of thing. They know that we know it's because they will be terrible, but they weren't going to publish them anyway. It shows complete contempt.
The irony is that the Government has told us how great bankers are, give 'em back their big bonuses, and they're all about how the market can deliver... and the bankers and the market have clearly said they're a shower of piss.
What has struck me from talking to friends and colleagues in the market, people who will get bigger bonuses and pay less tax as a result of the special fiscal operation and so should be the people supporting it even if nobody else does, is how none of them think the government is doing the right thing. They all think it is total madness and can't see what the strategy is. I've actually been quite heartened and surprised by the level of contempt on display. I really do think the events of the last few days mark a decisive shift in the UK's political dynamics.
On a related note there was a discussion amongst some of these highly paid people about the higher rate tax cut. Actually they don't care too much about a few thousand pounds but would willingly forgo that if when they have a heart attack on the street they could expect an ambulance to pick them up and send them for treatment.
People with high incomes don't tend to live in Albania for a reason. They like places that work.
With surging corporate bond yields I think we may see some big names fall. Morrisons and Asda are ones to watch. Very highly leveraged and junk bond ratings on the latter. Wouldn't be surprised if they weren't able to meet their servicing costs next year because the economy will be in the shit, inflation rampant and interest rates surging. People won't be spending money and they have a mountain of debt and will be facing annual servicing costs in excess of £1bn per year.
In general we could see a lot of those leveraged buyouts by PE fall apart soon and a lot of jobs lost as a result of perfectly healthy companies being loaded up with debt when money was cheap.
Yep: there's a lot of PE-backed firms that could find themselves in real trouble, real quickly.
The louder the squealing from the left, the more certain @KwasiKwarteng and @trussliz will be that they have got this right. They are truly creating an aspiration nation.
Hahahaha
The 'upsets the right people' approach to politics which is, always, utterly moronic. Yes, opponents will oppose, but you still need to see if they have a point. Especially when some of your own side are opposing.
She hasn't a clue. The really loud squealing is coming from the markets which her hero told us could not be bucked.
The squealing will then be echoed by mortgage holders.
With surging corporate bond yields I think we may see some big names fall. Morrisons and Asda are ones to watch. Very highly leveraged and junk bond ratings on the latter. Wouldn't be surprised if they weren't able to meet their servicing costs next year because the economy will be in the shit, inflation rampant and interest rates surging. People won't be spending money and they have a mountain of debt and will be facing annual servicing costs in excess of £1bn per year.
In general we could see a lot of those leveraged buyouts by PE fall apart soon and a lot of jobs lost as a result of perfectly healthy companies being loaded up with debt when money was cheap.
Yep: there's a lot of PE-backed firms that could find themselves in real trouble, real quickly.
Are we going to see a rash of debt-for-equity swaps from consortia of banks?
45p is Liz Truss’s Poll-Tax. She can spend a few weeks burning up the rest of her government’s political capital trying to defend it. Or she can ditch it, and start to rebuild her economic strategy. Those are the options. Because this policy is politically indefensible. https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1574516866445611008
With surging corporate bond yields I think we may see some big names fall. Morrisons and Asda are ones to watch. Very highly leveraged and junk bond ratings on the latter. Wouldn't be surprised if they weren't able to meet their servicing costs next year because the economy will be in the shit, inflation rampant and interest rates surging. People won't be spending money and they have a mountain of debt and will be facing annual servicing costs in excess of £1bn per year.
In general we could see a lot of those leveraged buyouts by PE fall apart soon and a lot of jobs lost as a result of perfectly healthy companies being loaded up with debt when money was cheap.
It's surprising how expensive Morrisons has got - to the extent that we now shop at Sainsburys as it's cheaper - even though Sainsbury's is an awful store...
Depends what you buy at Morrisons. I often drop by as it is next to the hospital. I was in the Co-op today, and saw a lot of price rises on staples.
Easy for folk like Mrs Foxy and me to switch down in the supermarkets, much tougher to do so if already eating the unbranded value ranges already.
I do a fair amount of shopping at a Lidl as it happens to be 300 yards from my house, although get Sainsbury's delivery for heavy and bulky stuff. Lidl is becoming seriously busy these days.
We have a very large Aldi near us (it's next to the regional Head Office so not surprising). That is busy all the time nowadays with 3 to 4 tills open all the time (it used to be 1 / 2)...
The maddening nothing is that in some ways the Lidaldi model- simple, unpretentious, efficient- is the only sane future I see for any of us. And the breaking down of class snobbery so that normal people shop there is a good thing.
But I also know full well that isn't why they are progressing in the UK market.
I went to Aldi for the first time this summer as it was the only supermarket in the town centre of the place we were staying. It was a weird experience: the aisles were only a quarter full, and there was a lot of weird brands, but I got decent ingredients. The wine was a bit of a random number generator: I bought two whites for the same price. One was delicious, the other downright weird.
Aldi at times have a rather nice Sparkling Red Wine and very cheap Ice Wine (that usually goes on the day it's released in November so don't wait when it appears)..
The only thing that can save the Conservative Party in the medium term is an electoral evisceration so complete that they have to rebuild from scratch.
I think we need something else frankly. They're corrupt, they are stupid, they are inept, they are idiotic, they spent weeks and weeks in the teeth of a crisis having pissing contests. And we cannot, cannot, cannot let Labour have a massive majority. Something, Someone needs to step up
I am not a Labour voter by any means. Labour are probably the party I have voted for less often than any other, even the Greens. The Tories (as was, pre-2015) were probably the party I voted for the most.
But if Labour are the price of getting rid of this shower then so be it. And if Labour do enact PR then I will definitely be voting for them.
It is clear that the system needs to change. FPTP is no longer fit for purpose. It only worked when politicians had integrity and the guts to face the public down for the good of the country rather than their party. The Boris's, Truss's and Corbyns have shown how badly reform is needed.
Now Starmer is heading for a majority he will file PR in a bottom drawer and never get it out again
Nope - not that I can ask anyone until the weekend but I suspect PR is firmly in the plan for Year 1 of a Labour Government.
They may not always get a majority but the Tories (as currently exist) never will and that is definitely a priority at the moment...
It isn't, Labour will not want to hand the balance of power to the LDs most of the time if they can win a majority themselves. The LDs of course can go with the Tories too as 2010 proved. It would also give seats to the Greens at Labour expense as well as Farage
Right wing Populism pushes the idea of popular sovereignty above the independence of democratic institutions and the professionalism of the representatives and leaders of those institutions - populism as populist opportunism, masquerading as values and agenda for government like a crusading ideology pretending it is voice of all the people, whilst acting undemocratically deaf to anyone with a different view. Likewise the undermining of civil service and attack on all the counterbalances of power, this is a very opposite ideology to UK Conservatism.
With the rise of the internet, UK culture and our worldly views likely influenced too much, and being changed too strongly by ideas and concepts from out the US.
Simple question. Did the paper which printed this, have too much influence over the recent Conservative Party leadership contest - this in reply to you saying, but with PR libdems will quite happily cosy up to all this, keeping Labour out of power.
In trying to make sense of what's going on, I wonder if Truss/Kwarteng have been beguiled by the IEA, Minford-type economists, and the TPA to misunderstand Brexit.
It's as if they think that now we are out of the EU we can make all our own decisions, and that extends to economic decisions. It's as if they think that UK plc, EU-free, can ignore not just the EU but all global economic forces and plough our own libertarian, low-tax economy without taking any notice of the global inter-connectedness of our economy. Take back control, indeed.
With surging corporate bond yields I think we may see some big names fall. Morrisons and Asda are ones to watch. Very highly leveraged and junk bond ratings on the latter. Wouldn't be surprised if they weren't able to meet their servicing costs next year because the economy will be in the shit, inflation rampant and interest rates surging. People won't be spending money and they have a mountain of debt and will be facing annual servicing costs in excess of £1bn per year.
In general we could see a lot of those leveraged buyouts by PE fall apart soon and a lot of jobs lost as a result of perfectly healthy companies being loaded up with debt when money was cheap.
It's surprising how expensive Morrisons has got - to the extent that we now shop at Sainsburys as it's cheaper - even though Sainsbury's is an awful store...
Depends what you buy at Morrisons. I often drop by as it is next to the hospital. I was in the Co-op today, and saw a lot of price rises on staples.
Easy for folk like Mrs Foxy and me to switch down in the supermarkets, much tougher to do so if already eating the unbranded value ranges already.
I do a fair amount of shopping at a Lidl as it happens to be 300 yards from my house, although get Sainsbury's delivery for heavy and bulky stuff. Lidl is becoming seriously busy these days.
We have a very large Aldi near us (it's next to the regional Head Office so not surprising). That is busy all the time nowadays with 3 to 4 tills open all the time (it used to be 1 / 2)...
The maddening nothing is that in some ways the Lidaldi model- simple, unpretentious, efficient- is the only sane future I see for any of us. And the breaking down of class snobbery so that normal people shop there is a good thing.
But I also know full well that isn't why they are progressing in the UK market.
A few weeks ago there was a German lady living in London voxpoped by The Times, on the topic of the cost of living. She explained that, in Germany, she could have gone to Lidl. But in London, she could not, because appearances had to be kept up.
During the leadership campaign a trait that was flagged up briefly about the Truss way of doing business, but soon forgotten, was she would announce a bonkers idea and then u-turn within hours when it became clear that no who wasn't on her staff or working at the IEA thought it remotely workable in the real world.
The regional public service pay idea being the prime example.
The 45p tax slash for the rich is the next u-turn i suspect if she governs as she campaigns.
Nevertheless - if you're Putin, it's not nice to see your (few) remaining backers walk away. In the last week, we've seen Serbia, Turkey and now North Korea distance themselves.
During the leadership campaign a trait that was flagged up briefly about the Truss way of doing business, but soon forgotten, was she would announce a bonkers idea and then u-turn within hours when it became clear that no who wasn't on her staff or working at the IEA thought it remotely workable in the real world.
The regional public service pay idea being the prime example.
The 45p tax slash for the rich is the next u-turn i suspect if she governs as she campaigns.
She can reverse the policy but it's not going to change her reputation. Pulling that trick without replacing her Chancellor would only make things worse (Kwasi would lose all authority). Removing Kwasi would equally generate another set of problems.
Basically you can reverse for things done quietly or in thee early discussions days but you can't do it if the plan is the topic everyone is talking about / laughing at...
The irony is that they might have got away with it in 2011-12 during a Western European recession but with inflation and less loose money around, the cost of a crazy stimulus appears way more quickly through the interest rate channel.
During the leadership campaign a trait that was flagged up briefly about the Truss way of doing business, but soon forgotten, was she would announce a bonkers idea and then u-turn within hours when it became clear that no who wasn't on her staff or working at the IEA thought it remotely workable in the real world.
The regional public service pay idea being the prime example.
The 45p tax slash for the rich is the next u-turn i suspect if she governs as she campaigns.
I don't think she can U-turn on the 45p. It would be totally humiliating, embarrassing etc. All credibility gone.
Unless - she sacks Kwarteng and shouts "it was his idea, the muppet; he didn't even tell me."
The only thing that can save the Conservative Party in the medium term is an electoral evisceration so complete that they have to rebuild from scratch.
I think we need something else frankly. They're corrupt, they are stupid, they are inept, they are idiotic, they spent weeks and weeks in the teeth of a crisis having pissing contests. And we cannot, cannot, cannot let Labour have a massive majority. Something, Someone needs to step up
I am not a Labour voter by any means. Labour are probably the party I have voted for less often than any other, even the Greens. The Tories (as was, pre-2015) were probably the party I voted for the most.
But if Labour are the price of getting rid of this shower then so be it. And if Labour do enact PR then I will definitely be voting for them.
It is clear that the system needs to change. FPTP is no longer fit for purpose. It only worked when politicians had integrity and the guts to face the public down for the good of the country rather than their party. The Boris's, Truss's and Corbyns have shown how badly reform is needed.
Now Starmer is heading for a majority he will file PR in a bottom drawer and never get it out again
Nope - not that I can ask anyone until the weekend but I suspect PR is firmly in the plan for Year 1 of a Labour Government.
They may not always get a majority but the Tories (as currently exist) never will and that is definitely a priority at the moment...
It isn't, Labour will not want to hand the balance of power to the LDs most of the time if they can win a majority themselves. The LDs of course can go with the Tories too as 2010 proved. It would also give seats to the Greens at Labour expense as well as Farage
Did you consider the Little Green Men from Proxima Centauri Party?
Carnyx does have a point HY. Do the Tories even exist under PR. Starmer jettisons the left, who didn’t even have enough votes to nominate Corbyn, but Conservative Party splits too, which we know as fact because it’s already happened.
It’s not a problem with Conservatism, such as you and many other PBers believe in, it’s a rise in Libertarian Economics, Anti woke, and Right wing populism infesting the Conservative brand that doesn’t show respect in institutions and counterbalances conservatism is founded on, that are all pulling the Conservative party apart right now, and have been for some time.
The Conservative Party would likely split in time under PR into a populist nationalist right party and a centre right more traditional Tory Party. However as Sweden and Italy have shown those 2 wings of the right can unite to form governments under PR even if not in the same party.
As you also state under PR Corbynites would likely split from Labour too and form their own hard Left party
Nevertheless - if you're Putin, it's not nice to see your (few) remaining backers walk away. In the last week, we've seen Serbia, Turkey and now North Korea distance themselves.
Like Trump the worst thing in the world for Putin is that others see him as a loser.
So the DM is moaning about the bankers which Truss and co decided should get bigger bonuses !
It’s still baffling why they decided to poison any goodwill from the public by removing the 45% top tax rate and bankers bonus cap when they could have stopped at the 19% basic tax rate and cancelling the NI rise .
45p is Liz Truss’s Poll-Tax. She can spend a few weeks burning up the rest of her government’s political capital trying to defend it. Or she can ditch it, and start to rebuild her economic strategy. Those are the options. Because this policy is politically indefensible. https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1574516866445611008
why? he's right.
The 45p cut is tin eared but doesn't really affect anyone as the cost is relatively small. The pain to come will be interest rates spiking on mortgages and companies collapsing when they can't refinance. Those aren't caused by the 45p cut, they are part of Truss' deliberate shift of the economic model towards a high interest rate one. The past 2 decades has been all about low and stable interest rates and that has been what everyone built their future assumptions on.
During the leadership campaign a trait that was flagged up briefly about the Truss way of doing business, but soon forgotten, was she would announce a bonkers idea and then u-turn within hours when it became clear that no who wasn't on her staff or working at the IEA thought it remotely workable in the real world.
The regional public service pay idea being the prime example.
The 45p tax slash for the rich is the next u-turn i suspect if she governs as she campaigns.
I don't think she can U-turn on the 45p. It would be totally humiliating, embarrassing etc. All credibility gone.
Unless - she sacks Kwarteng and shouts "it was his idea, the muppet; he didn't even tell me."
I think you may have stumbled on the way forward there.
Incredible video of Russian conscripts being inducted:
@wartranslated A woman, who appears to be with long-term military experience, is giving instructions to mobiks on what to take with them. This includes everything that is not armour and uniform, that is, tourniquets, medicines, and women's pads.
Also appeared in the single greatest episode of The Bill in which he played one of Santa's Elves. Or possibly a drunk. But probably actually one of Santa's Elves.
This is the first letter in yesterday's weekend FT Magazine:
"It is right to mourn the demise of Britain. This is the end. It is now a third-rate power and breaking up into smaller states. People are poor and hungry. The glory has gone. Farewell Britannia.
This is the second poll with Labour on 45%, a score that Labour managed many times under Miliband's leadership, but they only once went one point better to 46%.
The thing that stands out to me, still, is not publishing anything from the OBR. It reminds me of something that is said about the Russians, that they will lie even when they know that you know they are lying, as with the nonsense over Salisbury Cathedral.
Not publishing the OBR forecasts feels like the same sort of thing. They know that we know it's because they will be terrible, but they weren't going to publish them anyway. It shows complete contempt.
The irony is that the Government has told us how great bankers are, give 'em back their big bonuses, and they're all about how the market can deliver... and the bankers and the market have clearly said they're a shower of piss.
What has struck me from talking to friends and colleagues in the market, people who will get bigger bonuses and pay less tax as a result of the special fiscal operation and so should be the people supporting it even if nobody else does, is how none of them think the government is doing the right thing. They all think it is total madness and can't see what the strategy is. I've actually been quite heartened and surprised by the level of contempt on display. I really do think the events of the last few days mark a decisive shift in the UK's political dynamics.
Good to hear and hope you're right. Think you might be. But ... let's ask it ... will they vote Labour next time if it means they pay more tax?
Most of them won't, I don't think. They'll not vote. A lot of them are foreign and can't vote anyway. But I think the point is that the debate has moved on and even the beneficiaries of Truss's reheated eighties voodoo economics don't buy it. I'm relieved because I took one look at Truss and thought she would be a total disaster for the Tories. It's good to know I am not totally lacking in judgement.
Yes, they've screwed up, haven't they. I think they were losing anyway next time, with the scandals and the bad economy and general 'tory fatigue', but it could be a big one now with Truss. What a shame.
I went to Aldi for the first time this summer as it was the only supermarket in the town centre of the place we were staying. It was a weird experience: the aisles were only a quarter full, and there was a lot of weird brands, but I got decent ingredients. The wine was a bit of a random number generator: I bought two whites for the same price. One was delicious, the other downright weird.
Aldi at times have a rather nice Sparkling Red Wine and very cheap Ice Wine (that usually goes on the day it's released in November so don't wait when it appears)..
The Eiswein 👍 I have bought Lidl's in the past, very good.
During the leadership campaign a trait that was flagged up briefly about the Truss way of doing business, but soon forgotten, was she would announce a bonkers idea and then u-turn within hours when it became clear that no who wasn't on her staff or working at the IEA thought it remotely workable in the real world.
The regional public service pay idea being the prime example.
The 45p tax slash for the rich is the next u-turn i suspect if she governs as she campaigns.
I don't think she can U-turn on the 45p. It would be totally humiliating, embarrassing etc. All credibility gone.
Unless - she sacks Kwarteng and shouts "it was his idea, the muppet; he didn't even tell me."
I think you may have stumbled on the way forward there.
Extreme jubilation from long term Labour supporters on here tonight. The party has had a pretty miserable last 6 years or so and it’s about time the pendulum swung and you were able to enjoy some good news. I remember how pleased I was when the Tories were building big poll leads in 2007-2010, it is a nice feeling.
Away from all the tribalism, I think more and more people are moving to the view that Labour deserve a chance and I’m pretty certain that will be where my vote is going at the next GE bar an unforeseen event that really puts me off. I’m not sure how great a PM Starmer will be or even how good a Labour government will be - there’s still lots I disagree with - but that’s nothing compared to the absolute shower that are running the country right now.
I hope the Tories can sensibly rebuild in opposition, if it comes to that. I will always be a natural right of centre voter so I hope that there will be a party I can get behind and drift back to in time - at the moment, it’s just not there anymore.
So the DM is moaning about the bankers which Truss and co decided should get bigger bonuses !
It’s still baffling why they decided to poison any goodwill from the public by removing the 45% top tax rate and bankers bonus cap when they could have stopped at the 19% basic tax rate and cancelling the NI rise .
So often 'true believers' fail to understand that those not fully committed to their cause might see things differently.
This is the first letter in yesterday's weekend FT Magazine:
"It is right to mourn the demise of Britain. This is the end. It is now a third-rate power and breaking up into smaller states. People are poor and hungry. The glory has gone. Farewell Britannia.
Michael via FT.com"
Much of the uk outside london and the se is indeed poor. Take away in work benefits from many people and you would be talking real grinding poverty
The only thing that saves the Tory Govt now is an appalling, desolating world crisis - nuclear war, Covid revived, American civil war, aliens land with hostile intent, and so on
No one wants that, not even me (as much as I love drama); thus, Labour wins (we hope)
Reading the comments on here, you'd think the next election has to be held by the end of the year. In fact it's January 2025.
I hear you, but this feels like about 1994-95
The absolute fag end of looooooong Tory government, the voters increasingly desperate for change, whatever happens
Differences:
1. Starmer is not half the politician Blair was 2. However, the Tories are handing over a much more fucked economy 3. Global events are way more volatile: this is the one thing that might transform the election 4. Scotland, boundary changes, etc, all benefit Tories
It’s a real mix. I’d say Labour are odds on to be the next govt, but a Labour maj is still a stretch. 3/1
Extreme jubilation from long term Labour supporters on here tonight. The party has had a pretty miserable last 6 years or so and it’s about time the pendulum swung and you were able to enjoy some good news. I remember how pleased I was when the Tories were building big poll leads in 2007-2010, it is a nice feeling.
Away from all the tribalism, I think more and more people are moving to the view that Labour deserve a chance and I’m pretty certain that will be where my vote is going at the next GE bar an unforeseen event that really puts me off. I’m not sure how great a PM Starmer will be or even how good a Labour government will be - there’s still lots I disagree with - but that’s nothing compared to the absolute shower that are running the country right now.
I hope the Tories can sensibly rebuild in opposition, if it comes to that. I will always be a natural right of centre voter so I hope that there will be a party I can get behind and drift back to in time - at the moment, it’s just not there anymore.
Respect. If 'natural right of centre' voters such as you are likely to vote Labour, a Labour majority becomes a distinct possibility. Who'd have thought that a year ago?
Extreme jubilation from long term Labour supporters on here tonight. The party has had a pretty miserable last 6 years or so and it’s about time the pendulum swung and you were able to enjoy some good news. I remember how pleased I was when the Tories were building big poll leads in 2007-2010, it is a nice feeling.
Away from all the tribalism, I think more and more people are moving to the view that Labour deserve a chance and I’m pretty certain that will be where my vote is going at the next GE bar an unforeseen event that really puts me off. I’m not sure how great a PM Starmer will be or even how good a Labour government will be - there’s still lots I disagree with - but that’s nothing compared to the absolute shower that are running the country right now.
I hope the Tories can sensibly rebuild in opposition, if it comes to that. I will always be a natural right of centre voter so I hope that there will be a party I can get behind and drift back to in time - at the moment, it’s just not there anymore.
That's my position too. As it stands now I'll be voting for Labour at the next election, more to get the Tories out and hope they become a sensible party in Opposition again than any great conviction in Labour or SKS.
Really impressed by the clarity and intensity of the messaging from conservation charities this week. It's not just the taxes that the Tories have torched here.
45p is Liz Truss’s Poll-Tax. She can spend a few weeks burning up the rest of her government’s political capital trying to defend it. Or she can ditch it, and start to rebuild her economic strategy. Those are the options. Because this policy is politically indefensible. https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1574516866445611008
why? he's right.
The 45p cut is tin eared but doesn't really affect anyone as the cost is relatively small. The pain to come will be interest rates spiking on mortgages and companies collapsing when they can't refinance. Those aren't caused by the 45p cut, they are part of Truss' deliberate shift of the economic model towards a high interest rate one. The past 2 decades has been all about low and stable interest rates and that has been what everyone built their future assumptions on.
This is the first letter in yesterday's weekend FT Magazine:
"It is right to mourn the demise of Britain. This is the end. It is now a third-rate power and breaking up into smaller states. People are poor and hungry. The glory has gone. Farewell Britannia.
Michael via FT.com"
I don’t blame Michael for that, albeit batshit-insane, view. The FT printing it, on the other hand…
The only thing that saves the Tory Govt now is an appalling, desolating world crisis - nuclear war, Covid revived, American civil war, aliens land with hostile intent, and so on
No one wants that, not even me (as much as I love drama); thus, Labour wins (we hope)
Reading the comments on here, you'd think the next election has to be held by the end of the year. In fact it's January 2025.
I hear you, but this feels like about 1994-95
The absolute fag end of looooooong Tory government, the voters increasingly desperate for change, whatever happens
Differences:
1. Starmer is not half the politician Blair was 2. However, the Tories are handing over a much more fucked economy 3. Global events are way more volatile: this is the one thing that might transform the election 4. Scotland, boundary changes, etc, all benefit Tories
It’s a real mix. I’d say Labour are odds on to be the next govt, but a Labour maj is still a stretch. 3/1
The next election should be more like 1974 (Oct) than 1997 but the weirdo's in Number 10 and Number 11 might just turn the next election into an absolute shellaking for Con is they keep on as they are at the moment...
Incredible video of Russian conscripts being inducted:
@wartranslated A woman, who appears to be with long-term military experience, is giving instructions to mobiks on what to take with them. This includes everything that is not armour and uniform, that is, tourniquets, medicines, and women's pads.
Incredible video of Russian conscripts being inducted:
@wartranslated A woman, who appears to be with long-term military experience, is giving instructions to mobiks on what to take with them. This includes everything that is not armour and uniform, that is, tourniquets, medicines, and women's pads.
@BergAslak British gas prices - another fall like today and the spot price will be at around the level where the price cap is costless. As others have pointed out, hedging complicates the picture, but over the 2-year freeze there should still be significant savings over initial estimates.
Comments
45p is Liz Truss’s Poll-Tax. She can spend a few weeks burning up the rest of her government’s political capital trying to defend it. Or she can ditch it, and start to rebuild her economic strategy. Those are the options. Because this policy is politically indefensible.
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1574516866445611008
I'm relieved because I took one look at Truss and thought she would be a total disaster for the Tories. It's good to know I am not totally lacking in judgement.
The louder the squealing from the left, the more certain
@KwasiKwarteng
and
@trussliz
will be that they have got this right. They are truly creating an aspiration nation.
Hahahaha
Your neoliberal fantasies are tanking the economy more quickly than even their strongest critics expected.
Spare your outrage for this shocking excuse of a government.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=vc9iokyoO3s&feature=youtu.be
For those of us d'un age certain.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brian_Murphy_(actor)
The Truss / Minford view that low interest rates repress productivity and encourage a debt fuelled rentier economy may not be entirely wrong but knocking the legs out from under one economic model (low interest rates, tight fiscal) and transitioning to another (high interest rates, loose fiscal) in the middle of an energy crisis is reminiscent of the 'shock therapy' unleashed on the USSR in the '90s and the lack of awareness on the consequences for ordinary people.
Well, it's an idea...
People with high incomes don't tend to live in Albania for a reason. They like places that work.
https://twitter.com/realDonaIdT_/status/1574177702872961024?s=20&t=VQvXKhlT6pkM1iUGwOzJLw
The squealing will then be echoed by mortgage holders.
But I also know full well that isn't why they are progressing in the UK market.
With the rise of the internet, UK culture and our worldly views likely influenced too much, and being changed too strongly by ideas and concepts from out the US.
Simple question. Did the paper which printed this, have too much influence over the recent Conservative Party leadership contest - this in reply to you saying, but with PR libdems will quite happily cosy up to all this, keeping Labour out of power.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enemies_of_the_People_(headline)
It's as if they think that now we are out of the EU we can make all our own decisions, and that extends to economic decisions. It's as if they think that UK plc, EU-free, can ignore not just the EU but all global economic forces and plough our own libertarian, low-tax economy without taking any notice of the global inter-connectedness of our economy. Take back control, indeed.
The regional public service pay idea being the prime example.
The 45p tax slash for the rich is the next u-turn i suspect if she governs as she campaigns.
They haven't sent arms, they've sent ammunition.
Nevertheless - if you're Putin, it's not nice to see your (few) remaining backers walk away. In the last week, we've seen Serbia, Turkey and now North Korea distance themselves.
Still voting Labour, though. Must be suffering from false class consciousness or something.
Basically you can reverse for things done quietly or in thee early discussions days but you can't do it if the plan is the topic everyone is talking about / laughing at...
Unless - she sacks Kwarteng and shouts "it was his idea, the muppet; he didn't even tell me."
(Well, Labour, LD or Green, depending on who has the best chance of unseating my safe-Tory-seat MP)
As you also state under PR Corbynites would likely split from Labour too and form their own hard Left party
Look forward to seeing you all tomorrow for another day of Sterling watch. (The currency not the player).
He's a loser.
It’s still baffling why they decided to poison any goodwill from the public by removing the 45% top tax rate and bankers bonus cap when they could have stopped at the 19% basic tax rate and cancelling the NI rise .
@wartranslated
A woman, who appears to be with long-term military experience, is giving instructions to mobiks on what to take with them. This includes everything that is not armour and uniform, that is, tourniquets, medicines, and women's pads.
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1574483334679478284
"It is right to mourn the demise of Britain. This is the end. It is now a third-rate power and breaking up into smaller states. People are poor and hungry. The glory has gone. Farewell Britannia.
Michael via FT.com"
Sparking red? Er, no thanks.
Away from all the tribalism, I think more and more people are moving to the view that Labour deserve a chance and I’m pretty certain that will be where my vote is going at the next GE bar an unforeseen event that really puts me off. I’m not sure how great a PM Starmer will be or even how good a Labour government will be - there’s still lots I disagree with - but that’s nothing compared to the absolute shower that are running the country right now.
I hope the Tories can sensibly rebuild in opposition, if it comes to that. I will always be a natural right of centre voter so I hope that there will be a party I can get behind and drift back to in time - at the moment, it’s just not there anymore.
Oh to be a fly on the wall in No 10 this week.
The absolute fag end of looooooong Tory government, the voters increasingly desperate for change, whatever happens
Differences:
1. Starmer is not half the politician Blair was
2. However, the Tories are handing over a much more fucked economy
3. Global events are way more volatile: this is the one thing that might transform the election
4. Scotland, boundary changes, etc, all benefit Tories
It’s a real mix. I’d say Labour are odds on to be the next govt, but a Labour maj is still a stretch. 3/1
They probably won’t even realise unless they read PB 😆
EDIT. or maybe BoE did say they have ruled out a rate cut, to show their deliberations are getting somewhere.
British gas prices - another fall like today and the spot price will be at around the level where the price cap is costless. As others have pointed out, hedging complicates the picture, but over the 2-year freeze there should still be significant savings over initial estimates.
https://twitter.com/BergAslak/status/1574318050064699394