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PM Truss’s first test – the energy cost crisis – politicalbetting.com
PM Truss’s first test – the energy cost crisis – politicalbetting.com
The screen grab above is from the front page of the Times and sets out neatly the very big decision that the new PM will have to take when she takes over early next month. Starmer has put forward his freeze bills plan and YouGov polling appears to show that this is resonating with voters. That three in four CON voters want to do what Starmer is suggesting make this a tricky one for Truss.
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Lab 38.6%
Con 33.7%
LD 12.0%
Green 5.8%
SNP 4.2%
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2022
1.09 Liz Truss 92%
11.5 Rishi Sunak 9%
Next Conservative leader
1.09 Liz Truss 92%
11.5 Rishi Sunak 9%
The Telegraph reports the Prime Minister has been filmed shopping in Greece, as per this video. That's his second in as many weeks, isn't it? Third if you count Chequers.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=731obOKdTr4
"Many of the global prices for food, fuel and fertilizer that spiked when Russia invaded Ukraine have returned to their prewar levels, defying the most dire forecasts even as policymakers warn of the continued risk of famine and financial crisis in the developing world.
. . .
Wheat is now less expensive than when the war began. Brent crude oil, the global benchmark, hovers around its mid-February level of $97 per barrel. And the price of urea fertilizer, which almost doubled in the war’s first weeks, is back to its prewar level."
source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/08/13/food-fuel-lower-prices/
Now I understand, and the rest of the article emphasizes, that the strength of the US dollar makes it harder for much of the world, especially third world countries that are badly managed. But I think in the long run -- if these decreases persist or, even better prices drop still further, it will be, net, good for the world. Including Britain.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/lawyers-with-brain-chip-implants-will-be-better-faster-and-cheaper-3258f8clh (£££)
Hospitality sector in Square Mile hobbled by switch to homeworking
https://www.ft.com/content/f5f59e08-1dd4-41bb-a6f0-714e5c3ae47e (£££)
Tuesday Perth
Wednesday Belfast
Friday Manchester
https://www.conservatives.com/hustings
Rand Paul is now calling for a repeal of the Espionage Act, because any law that Trump broke is obviously an unjust law.
https://twitter.com/RandPaul/status/1558579480171614209
https://www.legalcheek.com/2022/08/future-lawyers-could-bill-units-of-attention-via-computers-hooked-up-to-their-brains/
"It’s impact on criminal law and the criminal justice system is another important theme for Dr McCay. His research moots the idea of brain-bracelets being worn by criminal offenders to track their thoughts, court orders being granted that ensure your brain is monitored at all times and considers the possibility of criminalising and sentencing thoughts that become criminal acts.
According to Dr McCay, this all “raises human rights concerns and there is now an important debate as to whether existing human rights protections are fit for purpose given the possibility of brain-monitoring and manipulation.”
If it can cope with the thoughts that pass through his head, it’ll be good to go.
In that vein, a more pertinent whatabout.
https://twitter.com/PoliticusSarah/status/1558561082880450562
Peter Strzok calls out GOP FBI hypocrites, "I spent a year and a half working on Hillary Clinton's e-mail server. Where we executed multiple
search warrants. I never heard one Republican once raise a finger talking about how we were using Gestapo tactics or overreaching."
Hopefully it continues going in the right direction.
Meanwhile expect massive profit increases from oil and energy suppliers.
Conservative members should demand answers from both candidates for leadership now.
It's going to be spectacular.
Aren't these proposals from Ed Davey, not Keir Starmer?
@Fox_Claire
Listen to whole of this. It's freaked me out. Furious too. An official from police explicitly says you can only express your views privately, lectures on need to be better informed re trans, when she spouts misinformation & deploys tears & threats. Coercive & bullying. For a sticker.
https://mobile.twitter.com/Fox_Claire/status/1558978910645374977
This seems to be a trend with this kind of Tory. Full of rhetoric, but clueless about detail. So as a zealot its entirely possible she is convinced that (a) people can just get better jobs if bills are high and (b) tax cuts solve everything.
So don't assume a sudden change of direction in Number 10. Wilful denial of reality is what this government does best. The only question is who gets the sack first - her or Ten Hag?
Not that I agree with the sticker, just to clarify. But yeah, she’s well within her rights to hold those views and express them in public.
She needs the votes of Conservative Party members, and Conservative Party members are dim. The way a non-dim person will do this is to make whatever promises you have to to get their votes, and not make any promises that aren't required to get their votes, and that's how she's playing it. Then once she gets elected she can do things that aren't stupid, subject to the need to appeal to the electorate at large, who are also dim.
"Home Office statistics show there has been a sharp increase in migration amid the easing of pandemic restrictions. The data shows 277,069 work-related visas were granted in the year ending March 2022 (including dependants), a 129% increase on the year ending March 2021 and a 50% increase on the year ending March 2020."
On this day back in 1945 I was seven and I remember being told by my mother that the war was finally, really, over and everything would be better.
No, she is dim. "Just cut taxes". That'll do it. Clueless about the detail because her boss didn't care about that and he was PM and wasn't he marvellous?
I will regret this decision in 3 weeks.
Whenever he smiles and I see the gap, I think of VJ Day...
We only really have domestic suzerainty and, in a highly globalised economy, that can only take us so far.
Priti Patel is compiling a Little Black Book of cabinet ministers that have complained about staffin' shortages due to immigration constraints
Look at her cunning wheeze to cut public service pay outside London.
She genuinely thought that was a great idea.
Was it smart?
That it is a problem demonstrates that so many of the people advocating a points-based migration system intended it not to let anyone in.
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1559069025216483331
And the flipside...
This is what some Liz Truss supporters have to say about it
https://twitter.com/johnredwood/status/1558682347482005504?s=20&t=IDI_twHUP9kpPYiYypO1dQ
She has proven herself to be very adaptable with her views.
No reason to assume this will change after she has won.
She has a political antenna, she knows the way the wind is blowing.
If she pivots to any form of reality based policy making, the bastards on the backbenches will crucify her
As mentioned previously, I've started trying to bet on football again. Interesting comparing league performances. Doing well on the EPL, terribly on the Bundesliga. Hard to say if that's random bobbling or something else.
My cunning strategy of backing teams to beat Manchester United has worked well so far.
As I understand it the Lib Dems and the SNP have proposed cancelling the October increase in energy and Labour have decided they think it is a good idea and are now claiming they have been working on it since July
I am unsure why 100% of all voters would not want this largesse, but in all seriousness how much is the cost and where is the money coming from
I assume the final landing spot on this will be the scheme put forward by the energy companies themselves
It is clear the conservatives are marooned in their ridiculous and unnecessary protracted leader campaign and I simply have no idea whatsoever what Truss will do when elected, but it is clear that she has been romancing the membership but will have to adopt an energy price freeze of some form
As for Johnson words cannot express my contempt for him and now he has gone on holiday again.
He is a disgrace and shameless - good riddance
IMV the most dangerous people are those who are highly educated, and therefore believe that they can *never* be dim at anything. When their car breaks down, they think they know better than the mechanic. Or when they get legal advice, they know better than the lawyer because they have been a surgeon for decades.
IMO that inability to grasp your intellectual limitations is a true sign of dimness.
A reverse ferret will destroy her premiership. Because (a) she hands all the attack lines to the opposition, (b) her proposed solution will barely scratch the surface, (c) the u-turn will be incompetently messaged and then executed, and (d) the sneering tendency of the Tory party seems highly likely to be in her cabinet.
Sunak has the political ability to do what is needed. Truss does not. "What crisis, no handouts, its un-Tory" to "our policies are very popular", to "we're looking at it", to "here's £15 off your next bill, handed to the energy companies to administer" to "look if its a problem you should get a better job".
Spain: We'll make commuter trains free for four months💪
New Zealand: Things are tough😊time to cut all fares by 50%
UK: Fares will go up by less than 11.8% don't forget to say thanks😏
https://twitter.com/BloombergUK/status/1559047285807390724
That said, if you think about which posters here *used* to be Conservative members but left, with a fairly wide range of ideology, you can see there's been a selection effect in action since Boris took over.
Not really. First they'll claim its unworkable, then that they're looking into it but have a better alternative, before finally implementing it in full anyway whilst claiming they thought of it first and what Labour was going to do was something else entirely that was unworkable.
We seem to combine both insanely expensive pence per mile fares and total unreliability so that you'd have to be nuts / desperate to travel by train in parts of the UK.
Socrates made this point exactly when he was on trial for his life - "the most stupid people are those who think they know everything and, in fact, know nothing". His point being was that it was impossible for one individual to know everything - and this was 5th Century BC Greece.
Unfortunately, there are too many people who think they do know everything and it's an attitude abetted by the rise of Wikipedia and Google Search....
Anyone who thinks that was a good idea is so dense even Richard Burgon would look down on them, or is so wilfully ignorant that David Irving would blink.
It's only political afficionados who get really worked up about this.
Not that he's ever struck me as being more than rather a superficial intellect.
Anyone who runs a small business knows how tight cashflow can get. Whilst there is an obvious option to borrow to invest in energy-saving kit (such as remove florescent strip lighting and replace with LEDs), business banking remains in the shit post-covid, and loans are not as easy to access as they were.
https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1559075092046483458
One is that she realised that her only route to winning was via the "Love Boris, Hate the EU and reality" wing of the Conservative party. Throw them loads of red meat now, then deny it all as soon as she's replaced the soft furnishings in Downing Street. The trouble with that is that it's not going to be easy. The bastards are still out there and they are more numerous than in the mid-90s.
The other is the she really believes all this stuff. And if we look at what she has said and written in the past, it's quite possible that we're seeing the real Truss here. Obsessed with freedom and fossil fuels, pining slightly for a red state somewhere in the USA. The trouble with that is that there's not much of a mandate for doing that, and I suspect (but can't prove) that it won't be what the Great British Public want.
There are all sorts of combos of these two, and "she says she's doing X, thinks she is playing game Y, but is going to get trapped by Z" scenarios as well. But it's probably all less clever than it looks.
And really thinks the headbangers are her friends.
She believes in the power of positive thinking. Boosterism is her philosophy.
The immovable object is about to meet the unstoppable force of reality.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1s25521TJOw
Well this aged well. https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1558801982835531781/video/1
Now look at the director's cut...
@Aiannucci https://twitter.com/bertdernernert/status/1559080038787604481/video/1
Wikipedia has a good entry on its history and provisions.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Espionage_Act_of_1917
But calling for its repeal, rather than its reform is an empty gesture.
Some form of law that covers espionage and state secrets is obviously necessary.
Not so happy. On this day back in 2021 Kabul fell to the Taliban. Feels much longer ago to me.
Don't think so. Expect another Truss "misrepresentation of my position"
It was hyped as a "big fat" GCSE. More topics were added, the questions were made harder. There used to be three versions of the exam, called Foundation, Intermediate and Higher, each covering a different range of likely final grades with an overlap between them. Intermediate was scrapped, which was the one centred on old grade C, new grade 4/5.
Trouble is that the damn kids insist on learning maths at roughly the same rate, so adding more and harder topics just means that a lot of the questions on the exam are wasted, with virtually everyone getting zero. So from a purely technical point of view, the exams do a worse job of sorting better and worse mathematicians. That, and the scrapping of intermediate has meant more kids doing the foundation tier. And GCSE maths has become more of a grim route march through topics (because the curriculum is now big and fat) which doesn't leave time to get seriously good at anything.
But if you look just at the documentation, the maths looks really hard, so job done.
Thatcher often change strategies and tactics including some U turns.
As usual the myth of Thatcher is the opposite of the reality of Thatcher.
Mike is old enough to be aware of that.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/aug/15/discovered-in-the-deep-hairy-chested-hoff-crab
Reminds me of those chaps who find the odd tasty crumb to nibble lurking in their beards left over from breakfast.
https://twitter.com/Pulpstar/status/1559080470024970241
Realise the issue is at supply level, UK energy demand is going to grow - and it should; energy use and standard of living go hand in hand. Couple this with the fact we need the UK's population to grow anyway to function better as an economy and well...
Commission the MET office to look into the availability of all natural power sources - wind, solar, tidal that would produce the remainder of almost always 45 GW available power that needs filling with the current CCGT burn. Add in nuclear, gas and heck even a bit of coal
As needs must. Solve for the lowest cost to the UK consumer, both business and domestic going forward.
It's basically a multivariate linear programming optimisation problem that would churn out an answer.
Oh batteries would be included as well - anyway solve this equation, then set out a plan to implement the solution paid for with long term bonds.
As for the current bills whilst this is being built ?
First up no help for higher rate taxpayers - taper out the support from 40k -> 50k. More help for 20k and UC. Gov't loans available for energy intensive small bus so they don't go under. A few more checks than Rishi's scheme.
There'd likely be gaps with the wind use required - just fill this with gas - CCGT does have a place but there's no way on God's green earth it should be 60% of generation.
For example I used to “live” markets, economics, company analysis etc. spent 15 years at the top of my game - sadly even watching CNBC or Bloomberg in the evening. After I walked away to specialise in something I gradually took less interest.
People still ask me for advice and I have to be honest with them and say “I don’t know”. I don’t care what these “non-farm payrolls” are going to do. I read economic arguments on here where 15 years ago I would be weighing in with details and facts and arguments but I know I would make an absolute arse of myself if I tried now (more so than already).
Same with my degree specialism - I remember the highlights and certain areas I loved but otherwise I have forgotten more than I know.
I think too many politicians, by the nature of having to have inflated self-belief to do it in the first place, think that because ten years ago they were a high flyer in some business that they have their finger on the pulse of everything they used to do still which is dangerous.
Better a Chairman type PM who gets a team of people all the way down the pyramid and pulls together their current knowledge and skills than someone who really thinks they know everything.
I get sad about what I have lost in knowledge and practise but at least I recognise it.
Will there be the Xmas parties and people going out with fuel bills going up in October and these businesses will also be hammered. Especially places like chippies and curry houses.
If energy prices are rising because there isn't enough gas to go round (due to Russia witholding supply) - if every country in Europe caps their energy prices at current levels, aren't we left with the problem that
- Demand for energy won't drop at all as people will continue to consume the same amount of energy at the fixed lower price
- Energy prices (for those governments paying the subsidy) will be a lot higher than they otherwise would be due to this extra demand created by artificially low prices for consumers
- If, as was stated last night, supply has dropped 10% (due to Russia withholding supplies), surely that 10% drop in supply has to be felt somewhere (e.g. by the countries who can't afford to bid insane amounts for gas)
tl;dr if all the rich countries of Europe subsidise energy prices for their consumers, what happens when demand doesn't drop (but supply already has)?
*And when he has time to do something,. i.e. he has warning.
He wasn't away before when it got to the point that him coming to a meeting was fodder for a front page headline in the Metro.