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Do the Tories know what they are getting with Truss? – politicalbetting.com
Do the Tories know what they are getting with Truss? – politicalbetting.com
Unless YouGov’s CON members’ polling has got it totally wrong then on September 7th the ex anti-monarchy campaigner, Liz Truss, will be more than happy to go to the the Palace so that the Queen can ask her to form a government.
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"You’ve got to admire the way she has been able to switch from position to position with such ease when it suits her ambitions."
Is that any different from SKS ... or Nick Palmer .... or almost any politician.
Or @YBarddCwsc for that matter. Peoples views change.
In fact, I knew Ed Davey when he was much younger (though he always looked prematurely pompous).
His views were very different then 😉
I wonder who will be the chief whip.
Truss will say anything to anybody to win the vote, then spectacularly fail to deliver any of it.
Crash and burn, perhaps within the year
However her conversion to hardline Brexiteer and Thatcherite and darling of the ERG is a bit suspicious. While she may get a brief poll bounce I remain of the view that longer term she is too Thatcherite for the redwall and too linked to Boris and the ERG for the bluewall.
https://www.deepmind.com/blog/alphafold-reveals-the-structure-of-the-protein-universe
"AlphaFold has been accessed by more than 500,000 researchers and used to accelerate progress on important real-world problems ranging from plastic pollution to antibiotic resistance.
Today, I’m incredibly excited to share the next stage of this journey. In partnership with EMBL’s European Bioinformatics Institute (EMBL-EBI), we’re now releasing predicted structures for nearly all catalogued proteins known to science, which will expand the AlphaFold DB by over 200x - from nearly 1 million structures to over 200 million structures - with the potential to dramatically increase our understanding of biology."
He will be hoping to win over traditional Tories in the Home counties, especially those who voted Remain, if Truss becomes PM
Will they dutifully troop through the lobbies at her command, or will the habit of dissension against Boris be hard to break?
There will be a strong desire to rally around and unify, but if confidence in her judgement is undermined early on that might not hold.
This will be the 1st key test to determine whether I'm going to dislike her intensely or just quite a lot.
As many of us have said. Continuity Johnson.
I think the Cabinet choices will be key and will tell us more.
I heard Simon Clarke on the radio and he sounded smart as F8ck. Also a red wall MP.
Interesting phrase though, anti-Truss. She will no doubt be sure to break the monopoly that the Conservatives have had on power and unintentionally ensure that the competition has the advantage.
Dr Hilary Cass
https://cass.independent-review.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/Cass-Review-Letter-to-NHSE_19-July-2022.pdf
https://twitter.com/BluskyeAllison/status/1552665155682865152
These were some of my early attempts:
I realised that anything that might involve a face would look bad. So I then asked for some overhead shots. A bit better but the lines on the pitches don't look right.
In the end I got some usable ones by asking for the pitch in the foreground and all the players blurred in the distance. Even then some of the people look odd (in the example below the person on the ground looks strange).
At the moment for me at least it hasn't helped me solve the issue I was hoping it would. Anything with a human face is just terrible. Maybe that will improve over time? At the very least it was quite fun to play around with.
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/jul/28/nhs-closing-down-london-gender-identity-clinic-for-children
It manages to get all the way to the end - just about - without mentioning that there are any question marks over what the Tavistock was DOING. If you read that one report, you'd think this was an overdue widening of their treatment
Given the intense Trans-Terf wars within the Guardian itself (see the female journalists driven out, from Suzanne Moore to Hadley Freeman) I imagine this was a tricky editorial tip toe
1.18 Liz Truss 85%
6.8 Rishi Sunak 15%
Next Conservative leader
1.17 Liz Truss 85%
7 Rishi Sunak 14%
Truss seems to have evolved over time, but that's normal. She doesn't seem to be flip-flopping back and forth.
However if she does it will both motivate the opponents and alienate a lot of Tories and ex-Tories who will perceive her as a proxy Boris.
Or are there any Sunak buyers out there at:
7?
10?
20?
So basically, a politician then?
I have no idea whether her conversion is genuine or convenient. How confident are you one way or the other and do you have anything to base you opinion on or is it just gut?
That it does anything is impressive, but...
If I was voting in the interest of the LDs or Labour I would vote for Truss.
So I think you are wise in your decision, but that is only a view based upon my gut reaction.
I expect some sort of token role might be found for them, but it wouldn't surprise me if they're gone before the General Election.
Once Truss is Party Leader and PM she has her own moral authority, especially if as seems likely the election result isn't that close.
I may be getting slightly over influenced by slightly bitchy thread headers like this one though. She seems to have the right sort of enemies.
If she fails to give key figures in the ERG their reward biscuits of key Cabinet posts they will withdraw support and she would lose a VONC within a year given most Tory MPs already do not back her.
Unless she had a big poll lead over Labour which is unlikely
A similar forced prescription is in the terminology of LGBT, LGBTQ+ and its variations. To those people who are Lesbian, Gay or Bisexual and gender critical, the addition of the letter T (with or without the Q, the plus, and the other letters that are sometimes deployed) represents the compelled bracketing of their sexual orientation with gender identity. Sexual orientation is an entirely different concept from gender identity: one concerns how we identify our sexual partners, and the other concerns how we identify ourselves. This is objectionable to many LGB people because their sexual orientation is based on biological sex – they are emphatically same-sex attracted – and not gender identity; and as gender identity theory requires the recognition of, for example, male-bodied lesbians, their sexual orientation is in fact directly oppositional to gender identity theory.
Put bluntly, for lesbians who “don’t do dick”, there is no such thing as a male lesbian. Given that the vast majority of trans women have penises, it is offensive to the point of lesbophobia to assert that they should accept trans women as potential sexual partners, and can be coercive to require that acceptance as a condition of their acceptance into LGBT society.
The drastic step comes as Germans have been told to expect sky high electricity bills and sweeping gas rationing measures that will affect their day-to-day lives.
In a sign of things to come, Hannover, the capital of Lower Saxony in the north west of the country, will cut off the hot water in public buildings, swimming pools, sports halls and gyms.
Other desperate gas-saving measures include switching off public fountains and blacking out night-time lights on major buildings such as the town hall and museums."
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11058375/Germany-turns-hot-water-Hanover-ban-hot-water-response-Russian-gas-crisis.html
Truss will also be the first Tory leader since IDS to not have come first in the final Tory MPs vote. IDS was removed by Tory MPs before fighting a general election
Sunak
Rest of South -24
Midlands and Wales -27
London -30
North -36
Scotland -48
Truss
Midlands and Wales -24
Rest of South -30
North -35
London -36
Scotland -47
Sunak only beats Truss in two areas:
London
and Rest of South
… which is unhelpful if the Tories still hope to hold on to Red Wall seats.
(Cougar works too!)
I filled up mine at £194 for diesel this week.
And the fact today's hustings are in Leeds.
Can Truss engineer something like the Barber Boom, become really popular, then call and win an election before it all goes horribly wrong?
For everyone's sake (including the Conservatives; 2024-9 with that round their necks would be hellish) I hope she can't, but it's both her best bet for winning and awfully plausible.
Secondly, it was designed specifically to win the election for the Tories. It didn't.
All round it was a disaster.
As I have mentioned before the Government should simply reset the cap at the Autumn 2021 level ie around £1,200pa. This would be very expensive but the cost would be significantly offset by the net reduction in CPI which would arise and thus the Government could reduce the uplift for state and public sector pensions and welfare.
Unfortunately no one in Government seems to have any idea of the seriousness of the situation or any desire to do anything about it!
She is different from Johnson in being much more focused but at the same time a terrible communicator.
Most worryingly she may actually believe in the mad policies she is peddling.
"Labour MP Chris Bryant apologises in court after businessman's libel claim"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-62334067
I'm guessing this makes reporting of some things said in parliament tricky? Can we say: "MP (insert name) said in parliament that Joe Bloggs is a fartypants", but not: "As said in parliament, Joe Bloggs is a fartypants" ?
https://twitter.com/suzanne_moore/status/1552675241377374212
"2S" is used by some activists in Oklahoma to include those American Indians who believe a person can have "Two-Spirits". (Sounds disturbingly like schizophrenia, to me.)
source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2022/07/27/trans-nonbinary-candidates-2022/
I love England.
And he had no interest in preserving the nations institutions. He would happily trash them all because they stopped doing what he liked all day long.
Whatever he was it isn't really conservatism.
Westminster Voting Intention (27 July):
Labour 41% (+1)
Conservative 33% (-1)
Liberal Democrat 11% (-1)
Green 5% (—)
Scottish National Party 4% (—)
Reform UK 4% (+1)
Plaid Cymru 1% (+1)
Other 1% (-1)
Changes +/- 24 July
https://t.co/Gin7OLu1z8 https://t.co/9tncN15o9C
Signs things setlling down at their pre defenestration position.
LLG still 57, ConRef still 37