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Do the Tories know what they are getting with Truss? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited July 31 in General
imageDo the Tories know what they are getting with Truss? – politicalbetting.com

Unless YouGov’s CON members’ polling has got it totally wrong then on September 7th the ex anti-monarchy campaigner, Liz Truss, will be more than happy to go to the the Palace so that the Queen can ask her to form a government.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 19,449
    I assumed from "switch" appearing twice that this was a TSE header
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 19,449
    Her readiness to change positions...
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 31,228
    IshmaelZ said:

    I assumed from "switch" appearing twice that this was a TSE header

    Or one written by Leon.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 6,721

    "You’ve got to admire the way she has been able to switch from position to position with such ease when it suits her ambitions."

    Is that any different from SKS ... or Nick Palmer .... or almost any politician.

    Or @YBarddCwsc for that matter. Peoples views change.

    In fact, I knew Ed Davey when he was much younger (though he always looked prematurely pompous).

    His views were very different then 😉
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 2,936
    IshmaelZ said:

    I assumed from "switch" appearing twice that this was a TSE header

    The question is whether she will have a cabinet willing serve under her.

    I wonder who will be the chief whip.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 31,228
    IshmaelZ said:

    Her readiness to change positions...

    It's a bit like Round the Horne.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 23,697
    They think they are getting continuity BoZo.

    Truss will say anything to anybody to win the vote, then spectacularly fail to deliver any of it.

    Crash and burn, perhaps within the year
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 101,106
    Truss is at heart a libertarian liberal, she just joined the Tories as she had a better chance of joining the Cabinet and becoming PM.

    However her conversion to hardline Brexiteer and Thatcherite and darling of the ERG is a bit suspicious. While she may get a brief poll bounce I remain of the view that longer term she is too Thatcherite for the redwall and too linked to Boris and the ERG for the bluewall.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 332
    Sorry to be so off-topic so early in the thread, but

    https://www.deepmind.com/blog/alphafold-reveals-the-structure-of-the-protein-universe

    "AlphaFold has been accessed by more than 500,000 researchers and used to accelerate progress on important real-world problems ranging from plastic pollution to antibiotic resistance.

    Today, I’m incredibly excited to share the next stage of this journey. In partnership with EMBL’s European Bioinformatics Institute (EMBL-EBI), we’re now releasing predicted structures for nearly all catalogued proteins known to science, which will expand the AlphaFold DB by over 200x - from nearly 1 million structures to over 200 million structures - with the potential to dramatically increase our understanding of biology."
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 101,106


    "You’ve got to admire the way she has been able to switch from position to position with such ease when it suits her ambitions."

    Is that any different from SKS ... or Nick Palmer .... or almost any politician.

    Or @YBarddCwsc for that matter. Peoples views change.

    In fact, I knew Ed Davey when he was much younger (though he always looked prematurely pompous).

    His views were very different then 😉

    Ed Davey was more of a Tory than young Liz Truss was.

    He will be hoping to win over traditional Tories in the Home counties, especially those who voted Remain, if Truss becomes PM
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 2,807
    Scott_xP said:

    They think they are getting continuity BoZo.

    Truss will say anything to anybody to win the vote, then spectacularly fail to deliver any of it.

    Crash and burn, perhaps within the year

    Are you geared up to surf the net for anti Truss tweets?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 9,087
    The key question is whether the Parliamentary Party are willing to trust that Truss has a strategy that will lead to their reelection.

    Will they dutifully troop through the lobbies at her command, or will the habit of dissension against Boris be hard to break?

    There will be a strong desire to rally around and unify, but if confidence in her judgement is undermined early on that might not hold.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 29,939
    kyf_100 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    I assumed from "switch" appearing twice that this was a TSE header

    The question is whether she will have a cabinet willing serve under her.

    I wonder who will be the chief whip.
    And will she keep absurdities like Rees Mogg and Dorries in the cabinet?

    This will be the 1st key test to determine whether I'm going to dislike her intensely or just quite a lot.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 332
    kyf_100 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    I assumed from "switch" appearing twice that this was a TSE header

    The question is whether she will have a cabinet willing serve under her.

    I wonder who will be the chief whip.
    I was listening to one of The Telegraph's podcast this morning and they were interviewing Andrea Leadsom and it was... *noticeable* when she was talking about Truss how many times she used words like 'whip' or 'tied up in knots'. Maybe I've just been sensitised to it after reading PB recently, but it did kind of stand out due to the repetition.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 6,721
    HYUFD said:


    "You’ve got to admire the way she has been able to switch from position to position with such ease when it suits her ambitions."

    Is that any different from SKS ... or Nick Palmer .... or almost any politician.

    Or @YBarddCwsc for that matter. Peoples views change.

    In fact, I knew Ed Davey when he was much younger (though he always looked prematurely pompous).

    His views were very different then 😉

    Ed Davey was more of a Tory than young Liz Truss was.

    He will be hoping to win over traditional Tories in the Home counties, especially those who voted Remain, if Truss becomes PM
    Yes. Ed has in fact travelled the opposite journey to Liz.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 11,523
    Could it be that her only true beliefs are what she sees as best for Liz Truss at a particular moment in time?

    As many of us have said. Continuity Johnson.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 478
    Nobody knows how she will be in goverment, which makes predictions of doom from Rejoiners and Tory-haters in the comments here worth as much as the paper they are written on.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 22,694
    This long article by the lawyer, Peter Daly, involved in the Forstater and Bailey cases is very well worth reading - https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/morality-plays-lessons-forstater-peter-daly
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 22,694
    ohnotnow said:

    kyf_100 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    I assumed from "switch" appearing twice that this was a TSE header

    The question is whether she will have a cabinet willing serve under her.

    I wonder who will be the chief whip.
    I was listening to one of The Telegraph's podcast this morning and they were interviewing Andrea Leadsom and it was... *noticeable* when she was talking about Truss how many times she used words like 'whip' or 'tied up in knots'. Maybe I've just been sensitised to it after reading PB recently, but it did kind of stand out due to the repetition.
    So unlike Leadsom to be bitchy about another female politician, of course ............
  • LeonLeon Posts: 24,250
    lol
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,209
    HYUFD said:

    Truss is at heart a libertarian liberal, she just joined the Tories as she had a better chance of joining the Cabinet and becoming PM.

    However her conversion to hardline Brexiteer and Thatcherite and darling of the ERG is a bit suspicious. While she may get a brief poll bounce I remain of the view that longer term she is too Thatcherite for the redwall and too linked to Boris and the ERG for the bluewall.


    I think the Cabinet choices will be key and will tell us more.


    I heard Simon Clarke on the radio and he sounded smart as F8ck. Also a red wall MP.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 101,106
    kinabalu said:

    kyf_100 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    I assumed from "switch" appearing twice that this was a TSE header

    The question is whether she will have a cabinet willing serve under her.

    I wonder who will be the chief whip.
    And will she keep absurdities like Rees Mogg and Dorries in the cabinet?

    This will be the 1st key test to determine whether I'm going to dislike her intensely or just quite a lot.
    She will have to give them a role, she only got to the last 2 thanks to ERG support and Mogg and Dorries are key figures in the ERG
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 41,401
    ohnotnow said:

    kyf_100 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    I assumed from "switch" appearing twice that this was a TSE header

    The question is whether she will have a cabinet willing serve under her.

    I wonder who will be the chief whip.
    I was listening to one of The Telegraph's podcast this morning and they were interviewing Andrea Leadsom and it was... *noticeable* when she was talking about Truss how many times she used words like 'whip' or 'tied up in knots'. Maybe I've just been sensitised to it after reading PB recently, but it did kind of stand out due to the repetition.
    Perhaps the language has always been replete with bondage metaphors, just as it is with nautical ones, and just as you suggest, the innocents among us had never before noticed.
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 1,401
    edited July 28
    FPT - curse of coming late to a thread, but here's my penny's worth for Leon
    sarissa said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I'm tempted to do a Tour de Britain

    Go and see all these great UK cities I haven't visited in many years: Birmingham, Liverpool, Newcastle, Sheffield, Leeds, Glasgow

    I've been to Bangkok probably a dozen times since 2010, yet I haven't been to any of the cities listed above (I have been to Manc, Edinburgh, Bristol)

    That's an idea. See it for myself. Are there really "Muslim no-go zones" in Bradford or Luton or Rotherham? (I very seriously doubt it, but I've never been, so I can't say for sure). How bad is the drugs stuff in Gorbals? Is Salford really "hip"??

    Kind of like Orwell's Road to Wigan Pier except with better wine and probably not quite as good observation, TBH

    Maybe I will find the Worst town in Britain. What is it?? West Bromwich? Watford? Any of them ones near Glasgow?

    NEWENT?

    I think the Gorbals will horrify you but not in the way anticipated. It's now now a fairly anodyne area of newbuild apartment blocks and a constructed shopping area and pub. The Brazen Head across the road might give you a whiff of the old days but don't wear your cool, trendy Union Jack leisure wear whatever you do.
    Serious question. Where should I go in Scotland for the unexpected, in terms of best and worst?

    I know Scotland rather well - actually a lot better than northern England. I've been to Scotland a dozen times in ten years, yet Yorkshire and Lancashire etc almost zero

    I know Edinburgh well, Glasgow quite well... all the lovely wilderness bits really well

    Don't know the Borders or the east coast (south of Wick)
    Brechin cathedral

    Muirton housing estate, Perth
    Brechin! Muirton! Lovely. Tack
    Been wracking my brain trying to think of the worst bit of Edinburgh, and failing miserably. Can name lots of shite buildings, but I think you are more looking for districts. Decades since I’ve been in Buckstone (between Morningside and Fairmilehead), but it was fairly horrific Wimpey Home land in the 80s, and that rubbish hasn’t aged well anywhere.

    Best bit of Glasgow? Burrell Collection?
    Where's the bit of E'boro that Welsh describes in trainspotting? Is that Leith?

    Tho I remember it being windswept, gritty but still quite picturesque rather than grim

    Scotland does have some shite towns tho. The old mining towns around Glasgow are some of the most depressing on earth. And this is not a sectarian jibe, rUK has equally shitty towns (my God, parts of S Wales or north of Brum), and Scotland also has some of the most majestic scenery on earth (not true of north Birmingham)
    Yep, Leith but also Pilton IIRC are Trainspotting land. It'll take in the peripheral estates to the west, as well as old Leith proper. There are tours (!).
    It is almost a cliche, but taking the west coast line to Oban, a few islands (Mull, Iona, Staffa), south Argyll and some Puffin Therapy (almost over for this year) is hard to beat. Avoid the best known mountains and honeypot attractions Such as Skye, Ben Nevis etc unless you like crowds.

    You could consider following Dr Johnson and Boswell's footsteps and seeing the impact of the modern world on places they visited.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 33,521

    The key question is whether the Parliamentary Party are willing to trust that Truss has a strategy that will lead to their reelection.

    Will they dutifully troop through the lobbies at her command, or will the habit of dissension against Boris be hard to break?

    There will be a strong desire to rally around and unify, but if confidence in her judgement is undermined early on that might not hold.

    The strategy is a fairly straightforward one: Borrow and spend, tax cuts and porkbarrelling. It is a pretty reliable way of getting re-elected, so may well work well. For a couple of years anyway...
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 11,523

    Scott_xP said:

    They think they are getting continuity BoZo.

    Truss will say anything to anybody to win the vote, then spectacularly fail to deliver any of it.

    Crash and burn, perhaps within the year

    Are you geared up to surf the net for anti Truss tweets?
    I don't think it will be that hard. I don't think it will be hard for the opposition to find them either.

    Interesting phrase though, anti-Truss. She will no doubt be sure to break the monopoly that the Conservatives have had on power and unintentionally ensure that the competition has the advantage.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 55,591
    "We therefore have no way of knowing whether, rather than buying time to make a decision, puberty blockers may disrupt that decision-making process."

    Dr Hilary Cass
    https://cass.independent-review.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/Cass-Review-Letter-to-NHSE_19-July-2022.pdf


    https://twitter.com/BluskyeAllison/status/1552665155682865152
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 935
    Totally off-topic but I finally got access to DALL-E recently. I know it has been quite a topic of debate here recently and thought I would share my experiences. I was wanting to create some football type images for use in an App.

    These were some of my early attempts:




    I realised that anything that might involve a face would look bad. So I then asked for some overhead shots. A bit better but the lines on the pitches don't look right.



    In the end I got some usable ones by asking for the pitch in the foreground and all the players blurred in the distance. Even then some of the people look odd (in the example below the person on the ground looks strange).



    At the moment for me at least it hasn't helped me solve the issue I was hoping it would. Anything with a human face is just terrible. Maybe that will improve over time? At the very least it was quite fun to play around with.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 24,250
    The dear old Guardian on the Tavistock closure


    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/jul/28/nhs-closing-down-london-gender-identity-clinic-for-children

    It manages to get all the way to the end - just about - without mentioning that there are any question marks over what the Tavistock was DOING. If you read that one report, you'd think this was an overdue widening of their treatment

    Given the intense Trans-Terf wars within the Guardian itself (see the female journalists driven out, from Suzanne Moore to Hadley Freeman) I imagine this was a tricky editorial tip toe
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 15,683
    Betfair next prime minister
    1.18 Liz Truss 85%
    6.8 Rishi Sunak 15%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.17 Liz Truss 85%
    7 Rishi Sunak 14%
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 11,523
    kinabalu said:

    kyf_100 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    I assumed from "switch" appearing twice that this was a TSE header

    The question is whether she will have a cabinet willing serve under her.

    I wonder who will be the chief whip.
    And will she keep absurdities like Rees Mogg and Dorries in the cabinet?

    This will be the 1st key test to determine whether I'm going to dislike her intensely or just quite a lot.
    She will fail that test. They will remain there. It is why she has their backing. If she does axe them, she will have my respect for her ruthlessness, but I won't be holding my breath. She is, above all, a light weight.
  • People who are putting themselves first rather than evolving views tend to flip-flop backwards and forwards, depending upon what's popular.

    Truss seems to have evolved over time, but that's normal. She doesn't seem to be flip-flopping back and forth.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 7,105
    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    kyf_100 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    I assumed from "switch" appearing twice that this was a TSE header

    The question is whether she will have a cabinet willing serve under her.

    I wonder who will be the chief whip.
    And will she keep absurdities like Rees Mogg and Dorries in the cabinet?

    This will be the 1st key test to determine whether I'm going to dislike her intensely or just quite a lot.
    She will have to give them a role, she only got to the last 2 thanks to ERG support and Mogg and Dorries are key figures in the ERG
    I think you are right. Not only that but JRM and Dorries were personally vocal supporter (saying 'she is more of a brexiteer than either of us' which is quite some statement).

    However if she does it will both motivate the opponents and alienate a lot of Tories and ex-Tories who will perceive her as a proxy Boris.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 11,523
    AlistairM said:

    Totally off-topic but I finally got access to DALL-E recently. I know it has been quite a topic of debate here recently and thought I would share my experiences. I was wanting to create some football type images for use in an App.

    These were some of my early attempts:




    I realised that anything that might involve a face would look bad. So I then asked for some overhead shots. A bit better but the lines on the pitches don't look right.



    In the end I got some usable ones by asking for the pitch in the foreground and all the players blurred in the distance. Even then some of the people look odd (in the example below the person on the ground looks strange).



    At the moment for me at least it hasn't helped me solve the issue I was hoping it would. Anything with a human face is just terrible. Maybe that will improve over time? At the very least it was quite fun to play around with.

    How did you get Bashar al-Assad involved? (third one down)
  • eekeek Posts: 20,284
    Scott_xP said:

    They think they are getting continuity BoZo.

    Truss will say anything to anybody to win the vote, then spectacularly fail to deliver any of it.

    Crash and burn, perhaps within the year

    I doubt she will crash and burn to the point that she is replaced before a General Election (she will need to doing seriously badly for the risk of replacing her to be worth it) but I suspect Labour will drop a few percentage during a short honeymoon period but be back to 10% leads before March next year.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 9,701

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.18 Liz Truss 85%
    6.8 Rishi Sunak 15%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.17 Liz Truss 85%
    7 Rishi Sunak 14%

    Done and dusted.

    Or are there any Sunak buyers out there at:

    7?
    10?
    20?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 11,523

    People who are putting themselves first rather than evolving views tend to flip-flop backwards and forwards, depending upon what's popular.

    Truss seems to have evolved over time, but that's normal. She doesn't seem to be flip-flopping back and forth.

    Lol.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 24,292
    Nigelb said:

    ohnotnow said:

    kyf_100 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    I assumed from "switch" appearing twice that this was a TSE header

    The question is whether she will have a cabinet willing serve under her.

    I wonder who will be the chief whip.
    I was listening to one of The Telegraph's podcast this morning and they were interviewing Andrea Leadsom and it was... *noticeable* when she was talking about Truss how many times she used words like 'whip' or 'tied up in knots'. Maybe I've just been sensitised to it after reading PB recently, but it did kind of stand out due to the repetition.
    Perhaps the language has always been replete with bondage metaphors, just as it is with nautical ones, and just as you suggest, the innocents among us had never before noticed.
    I do know a spot of the old flage was traditional amongst the elite males, from those posh "public school" centres of abuse, but surely not to that degree?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 11,523
    Cyclefree said:

    ohnotnow said:

    kyf_100 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    I assumed from "switch" appearing twice that this was a TSE header

    The question is whether she will have a cabinet willing serve under her.

    I wonder who will be the chief whip.
    I was listening to one of The Telegraph's podcast this morning and they were interviewing Andrea Leadsom and it was... *noticeable* when she was talking about Truss how many times she used words like 'whip' or 'tied up in knots'. Maybe I've just been sensitised to it after reading PB recently, but it did kind of stand out due to the repetition.
    So unlike Leadsom to be bitchy about another female politician, of course ............
    As a mother...?
  • kjhkjh Posts: 7,105
    edited July 28
    HYUFD said:

    Truss is at heart a libertarian liberal, she just joined the Tories as she had a better chance of joining the Cabinet and becoming PM.

    However her conversion to hardline Brexiteer and Thatcherite and darling of the ERG is a bit suspicious. While she may get a brief poll bounce I remain of the view that longer term she is too Thatcherite for the redwall and too linked to Boris and the ERG for the bluewall.

    Gosh I'm agreeing with everything you are posting at the moment.

    I have no idea whether her conversion is genuine or convenient. How confident are you one way or the other and do you have anything to base you opinion on or is it just gut?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 14,440
    edited July 28
    ..
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 101,106
    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    Truss is at heart a libertarian liberal, she just joined the Tories as she had a better chance of joining the Cabinet and becoming PM.

    However her conversion to hardline Brexiteer and Thatcherite and darling of the ERG is a bit suspicious. While she may get a brief poll bounce I remain of the view that longer term she is too Thatcherite for the redwall and too linked to Boris and the ERG for the bluewall.

    Gosh I'm agreeing with everything you are posting at the moment.

    I have no idea whether her conversion is genuine or convenient. How confident are you one way or the other and do you have anything to base you opinion on or is it just gut?
    I'm not, that is why I am voting for Sunak!
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 1,710
    AlistairM said:

    Totally off-topic but I finally got access to DALL-E recently. I know it has been quite a topic of debate here recently and thought I would share my experiences. I was wanting to create some football type images for use in an App.

    These were some of my early attempts:




    I realised that anything that might involve a face would look bad. So I then asked for some overhead shots. A bit better but the lines on the pitches don't look right.



    In the end I got some usable ones by asking for the pitch in the foreground and all the players blurred in the distance. Even then some of the people look odd (in the example below the person on the ground looks strange).



    At the moment for me at least it hasn't helped me solve the issue I was hoping it would. Anything with a human face is just terrible. Maybe that will improve over time? At the very least it was quite fun to play around with.

    I think the important thing to remember is that it is, in fact, a bit shit. What we have been presented with as "amazing" is the small amount of hand curated stuff that has emerged from its sweet spot.

    That it does anything is impressive, but...
  • kjhkjh Posts: 7,105
    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    Truss is at heart a libertarian liberal, she just joined the Tories as she had a better chance of joining the Cabinet and becoming PM.

    However her conversion to hardline Brexiteer and Thatcherite and darling of the ERG is a bit suspicious. While she may get a brief poll bounce I remain of the view that longer term she is too Thatcherite for the redwall and too linked to Boris and the ERG for the bluewall.

    Gosh I'm agreeing with everything you are posting at the moment.

    I have no idea whether her conversion is genuine or convenient. How confident are you one way or the other and do you have anything to base you opinion on or is it just gut?
    I'm not, that is why I am voting for Sunak!
    If I had a vote and I was voting in the interest of the Tory party and the country I would go for Sunak as well.

    If I was voting in the interest of the LDs or Labour I would vote for Truss.

    So I think you are wise in your decision, but that is only a view based upon my gut reaction.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,209

    kinabalu said:

    kyf_100 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    I assumed from "switch" appearing twice that this was a TSE header

    The question is whether she will have a cabinet willing serve under her.

    I wonder who will be the chief whip.
    And will she keep absurdities like Rees Mogg and Dorries in the cabinet?

    This will be the 1st key test to determine whether I'm going to dislike her intensely or just quite a lot.
    She will fail that test. They will remain there. It is why she has their backing. If she does axe them, she will have my respect for her ruthlessness, but I won't be holding my breath. She is, above all, a light weight.
    To knock out a heavyweight candidate like Sunak so swiftly and completely, Truss surely must have some savvy....?
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 6,637
    edited July 28
    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    kyf_100 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    I assumed from "switch" appearing twice that this was a TSE header

    The question is whether she will have a cabinet willing serve under her.

    I wonder who will be the chief whip.
    And will she keep absurdities like Rees Mogg and Dorries in the cabinet?

    This will be the 1st key test to determine whether I'm going to dislike her intensely or just quite a lot.
    She will have to give them a role, she only got to the last 2 thanks to ERG support and Mogg and Dorries are key figures in the ERG
    Gratitude isn't a big thing in politics.

    I expect some sort of token role might be found for them, but it wouldn't surprise me if they're gone before the General Election.

    Once Truss is Party Leader and PM she has her own moral authority, especially if as seems likely the election result isn't that close.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 41,401
    Carnyx said:

    Nigelb said:

    ohnotnow said:

    kyf_100 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    I assumed from "switch" appearing twice that this was a TSE header

    The question is whether she will have a cabinet willing serve under her.

    I wonder who will be the chief whip.
    I was listening to one of The Telegraph's podcast this morning and they were interviewing Andrea Leadsom and it was... *noticeable* when she was talking about Truss how many times she used words like 'whip' or 'tied up in knots'. Maybe I've just been sensitised to it after reading PB recently, but it did kind of stand out due to the repetition.
    Perhaps the language has always been replete with bondage metaphors, just as it is with nautical ones, and just as you suggest, the innocents among us had never before noticed.
    I do know a spot of the old flage was traditional amongst the elite males, from those posh "public school" centres of abuse, but surely not to that degree?
    Not my area of expertise, I'm afraid.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 5,939
    sarissa said:

    FPT - curse of coming late to a thread, but here's my penny's worth for Leon

    sarissa said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I'm tempted to do a Tour de Britain

    Go and see all these great UK cities I haven't visited in many years: Birmingham, Liverpool, Newcastle, Sheffield, Leeds, Glasgow

    I've been to Bangkok probably a dozen times since 2010, yet I haven't been to any of the cities listed above (I have been to Manc, Edinburgh, Bristol)

    That's an idea. See it for myself. Are there really "Muslim no-go zones" in Bradford or Luton or Rotherham? (I very seriously doubt it, but I've never been, so I can't say for sure). How bad is the drugs stuff in Gorbals? Is Salford really "hip"??

    Kind of like Orwell's Road to Wigan Pier except with better wine and probably not quite as good observation, TBH

    Maybe I will find the Worst town in Britain. What is it?? West Bromwich? Watford? Any of them ones near Glasgow?

    NEWENT?

    I think the Gorbals will horrify you but not in the way anticipated. It's now now a fairly anodyne area of newbuild apartment blocks and a constructed shopping area and pub. The Brazen Head across the road might give you a whiff of the old days but don't wear your cool, trendy Union Jack leisure wear whatever you do.
    Serious question. Where should I go in Scotland for the unexpected, in terms of best and worst?

    I know Scotland rather well - actually a lot better than northern England. I've been to Scotland a dozen times in ten years, yet Yorkshire and Lancashire etc almost zero

    I know Edinburgh well, Glasgow quite well... all the lovely wilderness bits really well

    Don't know the Borders or the east coast (south of Wick)
    Brechin cathedral

    Muirton housing estate, Perth
    Brechin! Muirton! Lovely. Tack
    Been wracking my brain trying to think of the worst bit of Edinburgh, and failing miserably. Can name lots of shite buildings, but I think you are more looking for districts. Decades since I’ve been in Buckstone (between Morningside and Fairmilehead), but it was fairly horrific Wimpey Home land in the 80s, and that rubbish hasn’t aged well anywhere.

    Best bit of Glasgow? Burrell Collection?
    Where's the bit of E'boro that Welsh describes in trainspotting? Is that Leith?

    Tho I remember it being windswept, gritty but still quite picturesque rather than grim

    Scotland does have some shite towns tho. The old mining towns around Glasgow are some of the most depressing on earth. And this is not a sectarian jibe, rUK has equally shitty towns (my God, parts of S Wales or north of Brum), and Scotland also has some of the most majestic scenery on earth (not true of north Birmingham)
    Yep, Leith but also Pilton IIRC are Trainspotting land. It'll take in the peripheral estates to the west, as well as old Leith proper. There are tours (!).
    It is almost a cliche, but taking the west coast line to Oban, a few islands (Mull, Iona, Staffa), south Argyll and some Puffin Therapy (almost over for this year) is hard to beat. Avoid the best known mountains and honeypot attractions Such as Skye, Ben Nevis etc unless you like crowds.

    You could consider following Dr Johnson and Boswell's footsteps and seeing the impact of the modern world on places they visited.
    Following, on Mull and Iona, also the journey of John Keats in 1818 (his northern walk, starting from Lancaster), which is well chronicled by contemporaneous journals and letters. he started to feel ill on the journey and shortened it. The following year he wrote nearly all his great poems, and a two years later he was dead.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 101,106
    edited July 28

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    kyf_100 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    I assumed from "switch" appearing twice that this was a TSE header

    The question is whether she will have a cabinet willing serve under her.

    I wonder who will be the chief whip.
    And will she keep absurdities like Rees Mogg and Dorries in the cabinet?

    This will be the 1st key test to determine whether I'm going to dislike her intensely or just quite a lot.
    She will have to give them a role, she only got to the last 2 thanks to ERG support and Mogg and Dorries are key figures in the ERG
    Gratitude isn't a big thing in politics.

    I expect some sort of token role might be found for them, but it wouldn't surprise me if they're gone before the General Election.

    Once Truss is Party Leader and PM she has her own moral authority, especially if as seems likely the election result isn't that close.
    Truss got to the last 2 with just 31.6% of Tory MPs backing her, even less than IDS got in 2001.

    If she fails to give key figures in the ERG their reward biscuits of key Cabinet posts they will withdraw support and she would lose a VONC within a year given most Tory MPs already do not back her.

    Unless she had a big poll lead over Labour which is unlikely
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,279
    Cripes that's a very catty header.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 55,591
    Cyclefree said:

    This long article by the lawyer, Peter Daly, involved in the Forstater and Bailey cases is very well worth reading - https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/morality-plays-lessons-forstater-peter-daly

    Very good:

    A similar forced prescription is in the terminology of LGBT, LGBTQ+ and its variations. To those people who are Lesbian, Gay or Bisexual and gender critical, the addition of the letter T (with or without the Q, the plus, and the other letters that are sometimes deployed) represents the compelled bracketing of their sexual orientation with gender identity. Sexual orientation is an entirely different concept from gender identity: one concerns how we identify our sexual partners, and the other concerns how we identify ourselves. This is objectionable to many LGB people because their sexual orientation is based on biological sex – they are emphatically same-sex attracted – and not gender identity; and as gender identity theory requires the recognition of, for example, male-bodied lesbians, their sexual orientation is in fact directly oppositional to gender identity theory.

    Put bluntly, for lesbians who “don’t do dick”, there is no such thing as a male lesbian. Given that the vast majority of trans women have penises, it is offensive to the point of lesbophobia to assert that they should accept trans women as potential sexual partners, and can be coercive to require that acceptance as a condition of their acceptance into LGBT society.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    kyf_100 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    I assumed from "switch" appearing twice that this was a TSE header

    The question is whether she will have a cabinet willing serve under her.

    I wonder who will be the chief whip.
    And will she keep absurdities like Rees Mogg and Dorries in the cabinet?

    This will be the 1st key test to determine whether I'm going to dislike her intensely or just quite a lot.
    She will have to give them a role, she only got to the last 2 thanks to ERG support and Mogg and Dorries are key figures in the ERG
    Gratitude isn't a big thing in politics.

    I expect some sort of token role might be found for them, but it wouldn't surprise me if they're gone before the General Election.

    Once Truss is Party Leader and PM she has her own moral authority, especially if as seems likely the election result isn't that close.
    Truss got to the last 2 with just 32% of Tory MPs backing her, even less than IDS.

    If she fails to give key figures in the ERG their reward biscuits of key Cabinet posts they will withdraw support and she would be lose a VONC within a year giving most Tory MPs already do nor back her.

    Unless she had a big poll lead over Labour which is unlikely
    How MPs voted in the last leadership election is moot the moment the election is over. The leader is the leader from that point onwards, until they're not. People like you will be loyal to her regardless of how they voted by mere virtue of her being the leader.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 28,584
    edited July 28
    Totally OT, (last time I did this it started a long discussion) but I passed, earlier this afternoon, a petrol station selling petrol at £1.69 a litre. Has it dropped to that extent?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 101,106

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    kyf_100 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    I assumed from "switch" appearing twice that this was a TSE header

    The question is whether she will have a cabinet willing serve under her.

    I wonder who will be the chief whip.
    And will she keep absurdities like Rees Mogg and Dorries in the cabinet?

    This will be the 1st key test to determine whether I'm going to dislike her intensely or just quite a lot.
    She will have to give them a role, she only got to the last 2 thanks to ERG support and Mogg and Dorries are key figures in the ERG
    Gratitude isn't a big thing in politics.

    I expect some sort of token role might be found for them, but it wouldn't surprise me if they're gone before the General Election.

    Once Truss is Party Leader and PM she has her own moral authority, especially if as seems likely the election result isn't that close.
    Truss got to the last 2 with just 32% of Tory MPs backing her, even less than IDS.

    If she fails to give key figures in the ERG their reward biscuits of key Cabinet posts they will withdraw support and she would be lose a VONC within a year giving most Tory MPs already do nor back her.

    Unless she had a big poll lead over Labour which is unlikely
    How MPs voted in the last leadership election is moot the moment the election is over. The leader is the leader from that point onwards, until they're not. People like you will be loyal to her regardless of how they voted by mere virtue of her being the leader.
    They will give her a year to turn the polls round, if not those in marginals will be panicking about their seats and if she has by then even lost the support of her ERG core vote she would be toast!
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 16,848
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    kyf_100 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    I assumed from "switch" appearing twice that this was a TSE header

    The question is whether she will have a cabinet willing serve under her.

    I wonder who will be the chief whip.
    And will she keep absurdities like Rees Mogg and Dorries in the cabinet?

    This will be the 1st key test to determine whether I'm going to dislike her intensely or just quite a lot.
    She will have to give them a role, she only got to the last 2 thanks to ERG support and Mogg and Dorries are key figures in the ERG
    Gratitude isn't a big thing in politics.

    I expect some sort of token role might be found for them, but it wouldn't surprise me if they're gone before the General Election.

    Once Truss is Party Leader and PM she has her own moral authority, especially if as seems likely the election result isn't that close.
    Truss got to the last 2 with just 31.6% of Tory MPs backing her, even less than IDS got in 2001.

    If she fails to give key figures in the ERG their reward biscuits of key Cabinet posts they will withdraw support and she would lose a VONC within a year given most Tory MPs already do not back her.

    Unless she had a big poll lead over Labour which is unlikely
    Does that mean continuity Boris actually means Boris continuing after Truss's lightening fast defenestration?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,395
    edited July 28
    "The Germany city of Hannover has become the first big city to ban hot water and central heating in public buildings in response to Vladimir Putin's weaponizing of gas supplies.

    The drastic step comes as Germans have been told to expect sky high electricity bills and sweeping gas rationing measures that will affect their day-to-day lives.

    In a sign of things to come, Hannover, the capital of Lower Saxony in the north west of the country, will cut off the hot water in public buildings, swimming pools, sports halls and gyms.

    Other desperate gas-saving measures include switching off public fountains and blacking out night-time lights on major buildings such as the town hall and museums."

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11058375/Germany-turns-hot-water-Hanover-ban-hot-water-response-Russian-gas-crisis.html
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    kyf_100 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    I assumed from "switch" appearing twice that this was a TSE header

    The question is whether she will have a cabinet willing serve under her.

    I wonder who will be the chief whip.
    And will she keep absurdities like Rees Mogg and Dorries in the cabinet?

    This will be the 1st key test to determine whether I'm going to dislike her intensely or just quite a lot.
    She will have to give them a role, she only got to the last 2 thanks to ERG support and Mogg and Dorries are key figures in the ERG
    Gratitude isn't a big thing in politics.

    I expect some sort of token role might be found for them, but it wouldn't surprise me if they're gone before the General Election.

    Once Truss is Party Leader and PM she has her own moral authority, especially if as seems likely the election result isn't that close.
    Truss got to the last 2 with just 32% of Tory MPs backing her, even less than IDS.

    If she fails to give key figures in the ERG their reward biscuits of key Cabinet posts they will withdraw support and she would be lose a VONC within a year giving most Tory MPs already do nor back her.

    Unless she had a big poll lead over Labour which is unlikely
    How MPs voted in the last leadership election is moot the moment the election is over. The leader is the leader from that point onwards, until they're not. People like you will be loyal to her regardless of how they voted by mere virtue of her being the leader.
    They will give her a year to turn the polls round, if not those in marginals will be panicking about their seats and if she has by then even lost the support of her ERG core vote she would be toast!
    Sure, sure. And you'll be ranting about "traitors" for anyone putting letters in, then voting for those traitors if a new election does happen.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 478

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    kyf_100 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    I assumed from "switch" appearing twice that this was a TSE header

    The question is whether she will have a cabinet willing serve under her.

    I wonder who will be the chief whip.
    And will she keep absurdities like Rees Mogg and Dorries in the cabinet?

    This will be the 1st key test to determine whether I'm going to dislike her intensely or just quite a lot.
    She will have to give them a role, she only got to the last 2 thanks to ERG support and Mogg and Dorries are key figures in the ERG
    Gratitude isn't a big thing in politics.

    I expect some sort of token role might be found for them, but it wouldn't surprise me if they're gone before the General Election.

    Once Truss is Party Leader and PM she has her own moral authority, especially if as seems likely the election result isn't that close.
    Who in the parliamentary Conservative party would be upset if Dorries and JRM weren't in the cabinet?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 101,106

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    kyf_100 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    I assumed from "switch" appearing twice that this was a TSE header

    The question is whether she will have a cabinet willing serve under her.

    I wonder who will be the chief whip.
    And will she keep absurdities like Rees Mogg and Dorries in the cabinet?

    This will be the 1st key test to determine whether I'm going to dislike her intensely or just quite a lot.
    She will have to give them a role, she only got to the last 2 thanks to ERG support and Mogg and Dorries are key figures in the ERG
    Gratitude isn't a big thing in politics.

    I expect some sort of token role might be found for them, but it wouldn't surprise me if they're gone before the General Election.

    Once Truss is Party Leader and PM she has her own moral authority, especially if as seems likely the election result isn't that close.
    Truss got to the last 2 with just 32% of Tory MPs backing her, even less than IDS.

    If she fails to give key figures in the ERG their reward biscuits of key Cabinet posts they will withdraw support and she would be lose a VONC within a year giving most Tory MPs already do nor back her.

    Unless she had a big poll lead over Labour which is unlikely
    How MPs voted in the last leadership election is moot the moment the election is over. The leader is the leader from that point onwards, until they're not. People like you will be loyal to her regardless of how they voted by mere virtue of her being the leader.
    They will give her a year to turn the polls round, if not those in marginals will be panicking about their seats and if she has by then even lost the support of her ERG core vote she would be toast!
    Sure, sure. And you'll be ranting about "traitors" for anyone putting letters in, then voting for those traitors if a new election does happen.
    Difference is Johnson was a proved general election winner, Truss isn't yet.

    Truss will also be the first Tory leader since IDS to not have come first in the final Tory MPs vote. IDS was removed by Tory MPs before fighting a general election
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 9,127
    Driver said:

    Nobody knows how she will be in goverment, which makes predictions of doom from Rejoiners and Tory-haters in the comments here worth as much as the paper they are written on.

    Are you printing it out?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 16,848

    Totally OT, (last time I did this it started a long discussion) but I passed, earlier this afternoon, a petrol station selling petrol at £1.69 a litre. Has it dropped to that extent?

    Just paid £1.94 for diesel at Tesco, Bridgend. It's been as low as £1.88 in the last few days, at Asda, Cardiff.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 6,539
    DavidL said:

    I am slowly warming to her although I would still very much prefer Rishi. Her business career before politics has real substance to it and I like the fact she helped to write a report called "The importance of Mathematics".
    I may be getting slightly over influenced by slightly bitchy thread headers like this one though. She seems to have the right sort of enemies.

    Reminds me a bit of how Thatcher the milk-snatcher was viewed initially. Even my dear departed mother came out with that epithet.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 9,701
    Andy_JS said:

    "The Germany city of Hannover has become the first big city to ban hot water and central heating in public buildings in response to Vladimir Putin's weaponizing of gas supplies.

    The drastic step comes as Germans have been told to expect sky high electricity bills and sweeping gas rationing measures that will affect their day-to-day lives.

    In a sign of things to come, Hannover, the capital of Lower Saxony in the north west of the country, will cut off the hot water in public buildings, swimming pools, sports halls and gyms.

    Other desperate gas-saving measures include switching off public fountains and blacking out night-time lights on major buildings such as the town hall and museums."

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11058375/Germany-turns-hot-water-Hanover-ban-hot-water-response-Russian-gas-crisis.html

    Yippee!! The dark-sky fans and astronomers will love that. I detest light pollution.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 9,701
    Net favourability (YG)

    Sunak

    Rest of South -24
    Midlands and Wales -27
    London -30
    North -36
    Scotland -48

    Truss

    Midlands and Wales -24
    Rest of South -30
    North -35
    London -36
    Scotland -47

    Sunak only beats Truss in two areas:

    London
    and Rest of South

    … which is unhelpful if the Tories still hope to hold on to Red Wall seats.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 9,127
    HYUFD said:

    Truss is at heart a libertarian liberal, she just joined the Tories as she had a better chance of joining the Cabinet and becoming PM.

    However her conversion to hardline Brexiteer and Thatcherite and darling of the ERG is a bit suspicious. While she may get a brief poll bounce I remain of the view that longer term she is too Thatcherite for the redwall and too linked to Boris and the ERG for the bluewall.

    This seems like a very astute analysis, by which I mean that I agree with it entirely.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 16,848
    DavidL said:

    I am slowly warming to her although I would still very much prefer Rishi. Her business career before politics has real substance to it and I like the fact she helped to write a report called "The importance of Mathematics".
    I may be getting slightly over influenced by slightly bitchy thread headers like this one though. She seems to have the right sort of enemies.

    She's a vacuum. That's not to say she won't win the next GE.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 9,701
    HYUFD said:

    Truss is at heart a libertarian liberal, she just joined the Tories as she had a better chance of joining the Cabinet and becoming PM.

    However her conversion to hardline Brexiteer and Thatcherite and darling of the ERG is a bit suspicious. While she may get a brief poll bounce I remain of the view that longer term she is too Thatcherite for the redwall and too linked to Boris and the ERG for the bluewall.

    I concur.

  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 6,539

    DavidL said:

    I am slowly warming to her although I would still very much prefer Rishi. Her business career before politics has real substance to it and I like the fact she helped to write a report called "The importance of Mathematics".
    I may be getting slightly over influenced by slightly bitchy thread headers like this one though. She seems to have the right sort of enemies.

    She's a vacuum. That's not to say she won't win the next GE.
    A vacuum will suck everything in.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 7,105
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    kyf_100 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    I assumed from "switch" appearing twice that this was a TSE header

    The question is whether she will have a cabinet willing serve under her.

    I wonder who will be the chief whip.
    And will she keep absurdities like Rees Mogg and Dorries in the cabinet?

    This will be the 1st key test to determine whether I'm going to dislike her intensely or just quite a lot.
    She will have to give them a role, she only got to the last 2 thanks to ERG support and Mogg and Dorries are key figures in the ERG
    Gratitude isn't a big thing in politics.

    I expect some sort of token role might be found for them, but it wouldn't surprise me if they're gone before the General Election.

    Once Truss is Party Leader and PM she has her own moral authority, especially if as seems likely the election result isn't that close.
    Truss got to the last 2 with just 32% of Tory MPs backing her, even less than IDS.

    If she fails to give key figures in the ERG their reward biscuits of key Cabinet posts they will withdraw support and she would be lose a VONC within a year giving most Tory MPs already do nor back her.

    Unless she had a big poll lead over Labour which is unlikely
    How MPs voted in the last leadership election is moot the moment the election is over. The leader is the leader from that point onwards, until they're not. People like you will be loyal to her regardless of how they voted by mere virtue of her being the leader.
    They will give her a year to turn the polls round, if not those in marginals will be panicking about their seats and if she has by then even lost the support of her ERG core vote she would be toast!
    Sure, sure. And you'll be ranting about "traitors" for anyone putting letters in, then voting for those traitors if a new election does happen.
    Difference is Johnson was a proved general election winner, Truss isn't yet.

    Truss will also be the first Tory leader since IDS to not have come first in the final Tory MPs vote. IDS was removed by Tory MPs before fighting a general election
    Now this business of Boris being a proven election winner I disagree with. He won once, when he was against Corbyn and the campaign was overwhelmingly about getting Brexit done. It was set up for him. Now you may be right and he certainly has the personality to front a campaign, but proven is a stretch. I would give you Blair or Thatcher however.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 9,701
    edited July 28
    geoffw said:

    DavidL said:

    I am slowly warming to her although I would still very much prefer Rishi. Her business career before politics has real substance to it and I like the fact she helped to write a report called "The importance of Mathematics".
    I may be getting slightly over influenced by slightly bitchy thread headers like this one though. She seems to have the right sort of enemies.

    She's a vacuum. That's not to say she won't win the next GE.
    A vacuum will suck everything in.
    Except votes.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 16,848
    edited July 28
    Pulpstar said:

    Cripes that's a very catty header.

    Well it is said Liz is a bit of a tiger. Rah!

    (Cougar works too!)
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 9,701

    Pulpstar said:

    Cripes that's a very catty header.

    Well it is said Liz is a bit of a tiger. Rah!
    Is it said in Finnish?
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 6,539

    HYUFD said:

    Truss is at heart a libertarian liberal, she just joined the Tories as she had a better chance of joining the Cabinet and becoming PM.

    However her conversion to hardline Brexiteer and Thatcherite and darling of the ERG is a bit suspicious. While she may get a brief poll bounce I remain of the view that longer term she is too Thatcherite for the redwall and too linked to Boris and the ERG for the bluewall.

    I concur.
    geoffw said:

    DavidL said:

    I am slowly warming to her although I would still very much prefer Rishi. Her business career before politics has real substance to it and I like the fact she helped to write a report called "The importance of Mathematics".
    I may be getting slightly over influenced by slightly bitchy thread headers like this one though. She seems to have the right sort of enemies.

    She's a vacuum. That's not to say she won't win the next GE.
    A vacuum will suck everything in.
    Except votes.
    Needs empirical testing. We'll see.

  • MattWMattW Posts: 14,440

    Totally OT, (last time I did this it started a long discussion) but I passed, earlier this afternoon, a petrol station selling petrol at £1.69 a litre. Has it dropped to that extent?

    Errr. Bugger.

    I filled up mine at £194 for diesel this week.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 22,811
    Could be at the mercy of the Winter? A bad one, and it could all come crashing down quickly.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 16,848
    geoffw said:

    DavidL said:

    I am slowly warming to her although I would still very much prefer Rishi. Her business career before politics has real substance to it and I like the fact she helped to write a report called "The importance of Mathematics".
    I may be getting slightly over influenced by slightly bitchy thread headers like this one though. She seems to have the right sort of enemies.

    She's a vacuum. That's not to say she won't win the next GE.
    A vacuum will suck everything in.
    I have every expectation of an implosion.
  • eekeek Posts: 20,284
    edited July 28

    Net favourability (YG)

    Sunak

    Rest of South -24
    Midlands and Wales -27
    London -30
    North -36
    Scotland -48

    Truss

    Midlands and Wales -24
    Rest of South -30
    North -35
    London -36
    Scotland -47

    Sunak only beats Truss in two areas:

    London
    and Rest of South

    … which is unhelpful if the Tories still hope to hold on to Red Wall seats.

    Well today Lizzie announced that she was bringing Northern Power Rail back on to the agenda - which may have more to do with the Commons Transport Select Committee laughing at the suggestions for Leeds and saying you have to do something.

    And the fact today's hustings are in Leeds.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 6,598
    Working on the basis that it's the economy, stupid...

    Can Truss engineer something like the Barber Boom, become really popular, then call and win an election before it all goes horribly wrong?

    For everyone's sake (including the Conservatives; 2024-9 with that round their necks would be hellish) I hope she can't, but it's both her best bet for winning and awfully plausible.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 16,848

    Working on the basis that it's the economy, stupid...

    Can Truss engineer something like the Barber Boom, become really popular, then call and win an election before it all goes horribly wrong?

    For everyone's sake (including the Conservatives; 2024-9 with that round their necks would be hellish) I hope she can't, but it's both her best bet for winning and awfully plausible.

    She might, but to a great extent short term economic policy success could be well beyond her control.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 55,591
    eek said:

    Net favourability (YG)

    Sunak

    Rest of South -24
    Midlands and Wales -27
    London -30
    North -36
    Scotland -48

    Truss

    Midlands and Wales -24
    Rest of South -30
    North -35
    London -36
    Scotland -47

    Sunak only beats Truss in two areas:

    London
    and Rest of South

    … which is unhelpful if the Tories still hope to hold on to Red Wall seats.

    Well today Lizzie announced that she was bringing Northern Power Rail back on to the agenda - which may have more to do with the Commons Transport Select Committee laughing at the suggestions for Leeds and saying you have to do something.

    And the fact today's hustings are in Leeds.
    While I started out fairly agnostic with a mild preference for Sunak, Truss does seem to be doing more policy rather than soundbite - even if her taxation policy is more than a little opaque…

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 22,811

    Working on the basis that it's the economy, stupid...

    Can Truss engineer something like the Barber Boom, become really popular, then call and win an election before it all goes horribly wrong?

    For everyone's sake (including the Conservatives; 2024-9 with that round their necks would be hellish) I hope she can't, but it's both her best bet for winning and awfully plausible.

    She could. But two points. The Barber Boom fuelled great inflation. Not good.
    Secondly, it was designed specifically to win the election for the Tories. It didn't.
    All round it was a disaster.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 1,726
    dixiedean said:

    Could be at the mercy of the Winter? A bad one, and it could all come crashing down quickly.

    Indeed the focus of everyone now is CPI and in particular the domestic fuel 'cap'.

    As I have mentioned before the Government should simply reset the cap at the Autumn 2021 level ie around £1,200pa. This would be very expensive but the cost would be significantly offset by the net reduction in CPI which would arise and thus the Government could reduce the uplift for state and public sector pensions and welfare.

    Unfortunately no one in Government seems to have any idea of the seriousness of the situation or any desire to do anything about it!
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 16,848
    dixiedean said:

    Working on the basis that it's the economy, stupid...

    Can Truss engineer something like the Barber Boom, become really popular, then call and win an election before it all goes horribly wrong?

    For everyone's sake (including the Conservatives; 2024-9 with that round their necks would be hellish) I hope she can't, but it's both her best bet for winning and awfully plausible.

    She could. But two points. The Barber Boom fuelled great inflation. Not good.
    Secondly, it was designed specifically to win the election for the Tories. It didn't.
    All round it was a disaster.
    ...and don't forget we had just joined and not left the Common Market.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 13,709
    Liz Truss is the Johnson continuity candidate. It's not surprising Conservative party members who rather approve of Johnson would go for her. She shares with Johnson a dishonesty, a shameless self-promotion along with a absolute willingness to tell people she thinks matters what they want to hear.

    She is different from Johnson in being much more focused but at the same time a terrible communicator.

    Most worryingly she may actually believe in the mad policies she is peddling.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 6,598
    dixiedean said:

    Working on the basis that it's the economy, stupid...

    Can Truss engineer something like the Barber Boom, become really popular, then call and win an election before it all goes horribly wrong?

    For everyone's sake (including the Conservatives; 2024-9 with that round their necks would be hellish) I hope she can't, but it's both her best bet for winning and awfully plausible.

    She could. But two points. The Barber Boom fuelled great inflation. Not good.
    Secondly, it was designed specifically to win the election for the Tories. It didn't.
    All round it was a disaster.
    Agree it would be a disaster. But what is the likelihood of a sufficient window where it would look really good?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 30,796
    Have we done this yet?

    "Labour MP Chris Bryant apologises in court after businessman's libel claim"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-62334067

    I'm guessing this makes reporting of some things said in parliament tricky? Can we say: "MP (insert name) said in parliament that Joe Bloggs is a fartypants", but not: "As said in parliament, Joe Bloggs is a fartypants" ?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 50,432
    dixiedean said:

    Working on the basis that it's the economy, stupid...

    Can Truss engineer something like the Barber Boom, become really popular, then call and win an election before it all goes horribly wrong?

    For everyone's sake (including the Conservatives; 2024-9 with that round their necks would be hellish) I hope she can't, but it's both her best bet for winning and awfully plausible.

    She could. But two points. The Barber Boom fuelled great inflation. Not good.
    Secondly, it was designed specifically to win the election for the Tories. It didn't.
    All round it was a disaster.
    Well, yes but Polticians' Logic applies.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 55,591
    The Guardian still failing to report why the Tavistock is being closed. Cass is clear that a different model is needed as well as more evidence on puberty blockers. FFS reporters should at least report even if you stop your columnists doing "wrong think"

    https://twitter.com/suzanne_moore/status/1552675241377374212
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 50,432

    Have we done this yet?

    "Labour MP Chris Bryant apologises in court after businessman's libel claim"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-62334067

    I'm guessing this makes reporting of some things said in parliament tricky? Can we say: "MP (insert name) said in parliament that Joe Bloggs is a fartypants", but not: "As said in parliament, Joe Bloggs is a fartypants" ?

    As long as we're not talking about Chris Bryant in his pants...
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 479
    One more code: "2SLGBTQ+"

    "2S" is used by some activists in Oklahoma to include those American Indians who believe a person can have "Two-Spirits". (Sounds disturbingly like schizophrenia, to me.)

    source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2022/07/27/trans-nonbinary-candidates-2022/
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 30,796
    edited July 28
    Just been out for a long walk with the little 'un. A superb day: local streams dusty-dry after the hot spell; the local windmill (the oldest in the country) under restoration using French Oak (because apparently all the seasoned English oak had been snaffled for the Notre Dame restoration). People smiling and laughing; dogs running about with wagging tails. The local church (Caxton), timeless in antiquity.

    I love England.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 14,728

    dixiedean said:

    Could be at the mercy of the Winter? A bad one, and it could all come crashing down quickly.

    Indeed the focus of everyone now is CPI and in particular the domestic fuel 'cap'.

    As I have mentioned before the Government should simply reset the cap at the Autumn 2021 level ie around £1,200pa. This would be very expensive but the cost would be significantly offset by the net reduction in CPI which would arise and thus the Government could reduce the uplift for state and public sector pensions and welfare.

    Unfortunately no one in Government seems to have any idea of the seriousness of the situation or any desire to do anything about it!
    It is an excellent point on CPI. If the govt subsidies on household energy had been introduced through the price cap rather than as household refunds then presumably that would have saved many billions in "non related" govt spending.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 31,228

    One more code: "2SLGBTQ+"

    "2S" is used by some activists in Oklahoma to include those American Indians who believe a person can have "Two-Spirits". (Sounds disturbingly like schizophrenia, to me.)

    source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2022/07/27/trans-nonbinary-candidates-2022/

    Two spirit person is just a variant of the Noble Savage trope. The belief that American Indians were deeply spiritual people who lived their lives in harmony with nature is a European myth.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 22,811

    dixiedean said:

    Working on the basis that it's the economy, stupid...

    Can Truss engineer something like the Barber Boom, become really popular, then call and win an election before it all goes horribly wrong?

    For everyone's sake (including the Conservatives; 2024-9 with that round their necks would be hellish) I hope she can't, but it's both her best bet for winning and awfully plausible.

    She could. But two points. The Barber Boom fuelled great inflation. Not good.
    Secondly, it was designed specifically to win the election for the Tories. It didn't.
    All round it was a disaster.
    Agree it would be a disaster. But what is the likelihood of a sufficient window where it would look really good?
    Not sure it could look "really good". We'd still have high inflation. There could be a window where it might look "less awful". But plenty of that would come down to sheer luck (end to the war, very mild winter, etc.).
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 52,691
    FF43 said:

    Liz Truss is the Johnson continuity candidate. It's not surprising Conservative party members who rather approve of Johnson would go for her. She shares with Johnson a dishonesty, a shameless self-promotion along with a absolute willingness to tell people she thinks matters what they want to hear.

    She is different from Johnson in being much more focused but at the same time a terrible communicator.

    Most worryingly she may actually believe in the mad policies she is peddling.

    I just can't work out why the members actually want Continuity Johnson. As he has said himself he is a Brexity Heseltine who wants to throw public money around all over the place building railways, hospital, bridges to Ireland and funding NHS and so on. Tax has gone up in large part because he drove that through the system.

    And he had no interest in preserving the nations institutions. He would happily trash them all because they stopped doing what he liked all day long.

    Whatever he was it isn't really conservatism.

  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 14,728

    FF43 said:

    Liz Truss is the Johnson continuity candidate. It's not surprising Conservative party members who rather approve of Johnson would go for her. She shares with Johnson a dishonesty, a shameless self-promotion along with a absolute willingness to tell people she thinks matters what they want to hear.

    She is different from Johnson in being much more focused but at the same time a terrible communicator.

    Most worryingly she may actually believe in the mad policies she is peddling.

    I just can't work out why the members actually want Continuity Johnson. As he has said himself he is a Brexity Heseltine who wants to throw public money around all over the place building railways, hospital, bridges to Ireland and funding NHS and so on. Tax has gone up in large part because he drove that through the system.

    And he had no interest in preserving the nations institutions. He would happily trash them all because they stopped doing what he liked all day long.

    Whatever he was it isn't really conservatism.

    I think you are imagining a party of the past. This is Bluekip. A land of sunny optimism and everything world class, apart from when it isn't world class because of the woke and French holding us back.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 29,939
    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    kyf_100 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    I assumed from "switch" appearing twice that this was a TSE header

    The question is whether she will have a cabinet willing serve under her.

    I wonder who will be the chief whip.
    And will she keep absurdities like Rees Mogg and Dorries in the cabinet?

    This will be the 1st key test to determine whether I'm going to dislike her intensely or just quite a lot.
    She will have to give them a role, she only got to the last 2 thanks to ERG support and Mogg and Dorries are key figures in the ERG
    A role yes but doesn't have to be cabinet. Could they not be Ambassadors somewhere?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 4,190
    Labour leads by 8%.

    Westminster Voting Intention (27 July):

    Labour 41% (+1)
    Conservative 33% (-1)
    Liberal Democrat 11% (-1)
    Green 5% (—)
    Scottish National Party 4% (—)
    Reform UK 4% (+1)
    Plaid Cymru 1% (+1)
    Other 1% (-1)

    Changes +/- 24 July

    https://t.co/Gin7OLu1z8 https://t.co/9tncN15o9C

    Signs things setlling down at their pre defenestration position.
    LLG still 57, ConRef still 37
This discussion has been closed.