Can anyome summarise briefly what's causing the warm spell? I'm hoping it'll be a bit gusty and blow over.
Hoping not. Just extracted myself from the pool as night swimming is my new favourite pastime as the water feels around the same as outside air temp so long may this continue.And I get to lie to myself that my 20 lengths have burnt off the day’s booze consumption.
I was at the same school at the same time as @trussliz
It provided support to children for whom English was a second language; had good special needs provision; excelled in sport, music and drama; and had significant numbers going to university.
Are we about see Badenoch installed as the leader-in-waiting who will take over after Sunak/Truss loses in 2024?
Looks that way from those membership voting numbers.
Assuming Sunak or Truss win the leadership and then lose in 2024, though Sunak has a chance of a narrow win unlike Truss I think, then Badenoch or Patel will likely be the favourites to be Leader of the Opposition depending on which of them the ERG back
I agree with the poster below who suggested if Sunak lost Mordaunt would probably still be the main threat. I think that's plausible.
Mordaunt or Tugenhadt might be the candidate Patel or Badenoch beat in the membership vote, she would be unlikely to end up Leader of the Opposition
Patel has some of Truss's problems, I think, and Badenoch needs years' more of experience.
If say Sunak wins this leadership election, which is probably now the likeliest outcome and loses the next general election then the ERG would ensure they get their candidate in the final two next time, as they may not this time if Truss is knocked out in the final MP round.
The membership would then likely vote for that candidate to be Leader of the Opposition and the candidates the ERG would probably back in Opposition would be Badenoch or Priti Patel, maybe Steve Baker but if the Tories lose the general election he would likely have lost his marginal seat. Dorries or Rees Mogg long shots
Mogg aint keeping his seat imho.
He is, Labour need a 13% swing to gain it, not happening even on most current polls let alone if the new Tory leader gets a poll bounce
On those figures Sunak can easily lend Mordaunt 5 to 10 MPs to knock out Truss in the final round and still top the poll
A question for you, HYUFD. I skim through ConHome comments from time to time. What strikes me is the very high proportion opposed to net zero and, frankly, a bit climate change sceptic. Do you think that is why their surveys are coming out so strongly in favour of Badenoch, as she's the only candidate who's expressed real doubt about the timetable for net zero? Do the views of those who write comments coincide, at least to some degree, to those who respond to their surveys?
A fair amount I suspect, if Sunak or Mordaunt win I would expect some leakage on the right to Farage's RefUK though they also likely win back some voters from Labour and the LDs
No, I don't think so. Whoever ends up as leader of the Conservative Party, this process has clearly shown that he or she will be a prisoner of the extremist head-bangers. This is not attractive to decent Conservative voters, still less to those who currently vote Lib Dem or Labour.
The sorry truth for traditional Conservative voters is that their former party is terminally fragmented into vicious factions, who can never work together again.
Can anyome summarise briefly what's causing the warm spell? I'm hoping it'll be a bit gusty and blow over.
Strong southerly wind. Most of the very hot days I can remember previously have been almost wind-free. This is going to be strange by comparison, with a hot wind blowing most of the time.
On those figures Sunak can easily lend Mordaunt 5 to 10 MPs to knock out Truss in the final round and still top the poll
A question for you, HYUFD. I skim through ConHome comments from time to time. What strikes me is the very high proportion opposed to net zero and, frankly, a bit climate change sceptic. Do you think that is why their surveys are coming out so strongly in favour of Badenoch, as she's the only candidate who's expressed real doubt about the timetable for net zero? Do the views of those who write comments coincide, at least to some degree, to those who respond to their surveys?
A fair amount I suspect, if Sunak or Mordaunt win I would expect some leakage on the right to Farage's RefUK though they also likely win back some voters from Labour and the LDs
No, I don't think so. Whoever ends up as leader of the Conservative Party, this process has clearly shown that he or she will be a prisoner of the extremist head-bangers. This is not attractive to decent Conservative voters, still less to those who currently vote Lib Dem or Labour.
The sorry truth for traditional Conservative voters is that their former party is terminally fragmented into vicious factions, who can never work together again.
Not bad points, but never is a long time, and SKS is quite irredeemably crap. I used to think of him as mogadon man, but he makes mogadon look like crystal meth. In any of these utterly lamentable tory debates, he would have struggled to come joint last.
Are we about see Badenoch installed as the leader-in-waiting who will take over after Sunak/Truss loses in 2024?
Looks that way from those membership voting numbers.
Assuming Sunak or Truss win the leadership and then lose in 2024, though Sunak has a chance of a narrow win unlike Truss I think, then Badenoch or Patel will likely be the favourites to be Leader of the Opposition depending on which of them the ERG back
I agree with the poster below who suggested if Sunak lost Mordaunt would probably still be the main threat. I think that's plausible.
Mordaunt or Tugenhadt might be the candidate Patel or Badenoch beat in the membership vote, she would be unlikely to end up Leader of the Opposition
Patel has some of Truss's problems, I think, and Badenoch needs years' more of experience.
If say Sunak wins this leadership election, which is probably now the likeliest outcome and loses the next general election then the ERG would ensure they get their candidate in the final two next time, as they may not this time if Truss is knocked out in the final MP round.
The membership would then likely vote for that candidate to be Leader of the Opposition and the candidates the ERG would probably back in Opposition would be Badenoch or Priti Patel, maybe Steve Baker but if the Tories lose the general election he would likely have lost his marginal seat. Dorries or Rees Mogg long shots
Mogg aint keeping his seat imho.
He is, Labour need a 13% swing to gain it, not happening even on most current polls let alone if the new Tory leader gets a poll bounce
A sea change is coming and Mogg will be swept away as one of those most identified with the crisis that is coming.
Here’s a new way of looking at this somewhat tedious Tory conference. Assume this contest is the zenith of each of the candidates political careers and they will resign following defeat and make a fast buck in the city,
Who can the Tory party least afford to lose?
Honestly, if Mordant and TT went, they would be easily replaced. That leaves Liz, Kemi and Rishi. Who is the rarest and who is a loss?
Harry Cole @MrHarryCole · 3h Sunak going straight to the membership with “what is the point of the Conservatives if it’s not sound money”?
But will they listen by September?
They really want those tax cuts. I suppose the question is will he be left with no choice but to say "Look, I plan to lower them the year preceding the next General Election, you fools, just hold out until then"?
Who was the PBer who said they'd eat their hat IF it hit 40? And what's best beverage to wash it down?
Looks like it will be a close-run thing. Glad I am NOT there to experience in person. But fear my time may come later this summer.
That was me. Looks like I'll be eating my hat.
If you said 36C yes it will probably be hat-eating time. If you said 40C I would hold on to that hat, it's still touch and go. eg tomorrow was expected to reach 40C - but cloud and rain in places might nudge it down to the high 30s. So then it is Tuesday. The heat will build from a higher base, so 40C is certainly POSSIBLE....
On those figures Sunak can easily lend Mordaunt 5 to 10 MPs to knock out Truss in the final round and still top the poll
A question for you, HYUFD. I skim through ConHome comments from time to time. What strikes me is the very high proportion opposed to net zero and, frankly, a bit climate change sceptic. Do you think that is why their surveys are coming out so strongly in favour of Badenoch, as she's the only candidate who's expressed real doubt about the timetable for net zero? Do the views of those who write comments coincide, at least to some degree, to those who respond to their surveys?
A fair amount I suspect, if Sunak or Mordaunt win I would expect some leakage on the right to Farage's RefUK though they also likely win back some voters from Labour and the LDs
No, I don't think so. Whoever ends up as leader of the Conservative Party, this process has clearly shown that he or she will be a prisoner of the extremist head-bangers. This is not attractive to decent Conservative voters, still less to those who currently vote Lib Dem or Labour.
The sorry truth for traditional Conservative voters is that their former party is terminally fragmented into vicious factions, who can never work together again.
Are we about see Badenoch installed as the leader-in-waiting who will take over after Sunak/Truss loses in 2024?
Looks that way from those membership voting numbers.
Assuming Sunak or Truss win the leadership and then lose in 2024, though Sunak has a chance of a narrow win unlike Truss I think, then Badenoch or Patel will likely be the favourites to be Leader of the Opposition depending on which of them the ERG back
I agree with the poster below who suggested if Sunak lost Mordaunt would probably still be the main threat. I think that's plausible.
Mordaunt or Tugenhadt might be the candidate Patel or Badenoch beat in the membership vote, she would be unlikely to end up Leader of the Opposition
Patel has some of Truss's problems, I think, and Badenoch needs years' more of experience.
If say Sunak wins this leadership election, which is probably now the likeliest outcome and loses the next general election then the ERG would ensure they get their candidate in the final two next time, as they may not this time if Truss is knocked out in the final MP round.
The membership would then likely vote for that candidate to be Leader of the Opposition and the candidates the ERG would probably back in Opposition would be Badenoch or Priti Patel, maybe Steve Baker but if the Tories lose the general election he would likely have lost his marginal seat. Dorries or Rees Mogg long shots
Mogg aint keeping his seat imho.
Majority of 14k, but admittedly was only 5k in 2010. I don't think we'll be so lucky but it's at least more possible than I thought at first glance.
On those figures Sunak can easily lend Mordaunt 5 to 10 MPs to knock out Truss in the final round and still top the poll
A question for you, HYUFD. I skim through ConHome comments from time to time. What strikes me is the very high proportion opposed to net zero and, frankly, a bit climate change sceptic. Do you think that is why their surveys are coming out so strongly in favour of Badenoch, as she's the only candidate who's expressed real doubt about the timetable for net zero? Do the views of those who write comments coincide, at least to some degree, to those who respond to their surveys?
A fair amount I suspect, if Sunak or Mordaunt win I would expect some leakage on the right to Farage's RefUK though they also likely win back some voters from Labour and the LDs
No, I don't think so. Whoever ends up as leader of the Conservative Party, this process has clearly shown that he or she will be a prisoner of the extremist head-bangers. This is not attractive to decent Conservative voters, still less to those who currently vote Lib Dem or Labour.
The sorry truth for traditional Conservative voters is that their former party is terminally fragmented into vicious factions, who can never work together again.
People said the same about Labour a few years ago
It took 6 years and the biggest defeat since the 1930s to sort that out.
On those figures Sunak can easily lend Mordaunt 5 to 10 MPs to knock out Truss in the final round and still top the poll
A question for you, HYUFD. I skim through ConHome comments from time to time. What strikes me is the very high proportion opposed to net zero and, frankly, a bit climate change sceptic. Do you think that is why their surveys are coming out so strongly in favour of Badenoch, as she's the only candidate who's expressed real doubt about the timetable for net zero? Do the views of those who write comments coincide, at least to some degree, to those who respond to their surveys?
A fair amount I suspect, if Sunak or Mordaunt win I would expect some leakage on the right to Farage's RefUK though they also likely win back some voters from Labour and the LDs
No, I don't think so. Whoever ends up as leader of the Conservative Party, this process has clearly shown that he or she will be a prisoner of the extremist head-bangers. This is not attractive to decent Conservative voters, still less to those who currently vote Lib Dem or Labour.
The sorry truth for traditional Conservative voters is that their former party is terminally fragmented into vicious factions, who can never work together again.
People said the same about Labour a few years ago
It took 6 years and the biggest defeat since the 1930s to sort that out.
It was touch and go whether they had learned the lesson even then! It seems to have mostly taken now though.
A very long article whose gist is that the cost of adding catapults to our aircraft carriers was deliberately inflated by the MoD. The government therefore decided not to fit them.
Without catapults, only vertical take-off aircraft could be used. Because we sold off all our Harriers, this meant F35Bs which are so expensive that we cannot afford to buy enough of them, and they are not very good anyway.
Are we about see Badenoch installed as the leader-in-waiting who will take over after Sunak/Truss loses in 2024?
Looks that way from those membership voting numbers.
Assuming Sunak or Truss win the leadership and then lose in 2024, though Sunak has a chance of a narrow win unlike Truss I think, then Badenoch or Patel will likely be the favourites to be Leader of the Opposition depending on which of them the ERG back
I agree with the poster below who suggested if Sunak lost Mordaunt would probably still be the main threat. I think that's plausible.
Mordaunt or Tugenhadt might be the candidate Patel or Badenoch beat in the membership vote, she would be unlikely to end up Leader of the Opposition
Patel has some of Truss's problems, I think, and Badenoch needs years' more of experience.
If say Sunak wins this leadership election, which is probably now the likeliest outcome and loses the next general election then the ERG would ensure they get their candidate in the final two next time, as they may not this time if Truss is knocked out in the final MP round.
The membership would then likely vote for that candidate to be Leader of the Opposition and the candidates the ERG would probably back in Opposition would be Badenoch or Priti Patel, maybe Steve Baker but if the Tories lose the general election he would likely have lost his marginal seat. Dorries or Rees Mogg long shots
Mogg aint keeping his seat imho.
Majority of 14k, but admittedly was only 5k in 2010. I don't think we'll be so lucky but it's at least more possible than I thought at first glance.
Liberals on 12k just behind Lab on 13K.
The Tories have no idea about the tactical vote surge that is going to hit them in 2024.
Are we about see Badenoch installed as the leader-in-waiting who will take over after Sunak/Truss loses in 2024?
Looks that way from those membership voting numbers.
Assuming Sunak or Truss win the leadership and then lose in 2024, though Sunak has a chance of a narrow win unlike Truss I think, then Badenoch or Patel will likely be the favourites to be Leader of the Opposition depending on which of them the ERG back
I agree with the poster below who suggested if Sunak lost Mordaunt would probably still be the main threat. I think that's plausible.
Mordaunt or Tugenhadt might be the candidate Patel or Badenoch beat in the membership vote, she would be unlikely to end up Leader of the Opposition
Patel has some of Truss's problems, I think, and Badenoch needs years' more of experience.
If say Sunak wins this leadership election, which is probably now the likeliest outcome and loses the next general election then the ERG would ensure they get their candidate in the final two next time, as they may not this time if Truss is knocked out in the final MP round.
The membership would then likely vote for that candidate to be Leader of the Opposition and the candidates the ERG would probably back in Opposition would be Badenoch or Priti Patel, maybe Steve Baker but if the Tories lose the general election he would likely have lost his marginal seat. Dorries or Rees Mogg long shots
Mogg aint keeping his seat imho.
Majority of 14k, but admittedly was only 5k in 2010. I don't think we'll be so lucky but it's at least more possible than I thought at first glance.
The problem is this is a seat that only the LDs are likely to be able to take yet they are in 3rd place behind Labour so you are always likely to get the vote split. A by-election would be a slam dunk for the LDs. A General Election not so.
Here’s a new way of looking at this somewhat tedious Tory conference. Assume this contest is the zenith of each of the candidates political careers and they will resign following defeat and make a fast buck in the city,
Who can the Tory party least afford to lose?
Honestly, if Mordant and TT went, they would be easily replaced. That leaves Liz, Kemi and Rishi. Who is the rarest and who is a loss?
Medium term? It has to be Badenoch who would be the biggest loss. Truss would be about as much loss as my refuse binmen turning up a day late.
Short term is Rishi. He is the PM to get us through the next two years of shit before handing over to Reeves with, no doubt, a witty note about being sorry the IMF are on their way but best of luck kiddo.
On those figures Sunak can easily lend Mordaunt 5 to 10 MPs to knock out Truss in the final round and still top the poll
A question for you, HYUFD. I skim through ConHome comments from time to time. What strikes me is the very high proportion opposed to net zero and, frankly, a bit climate change sceptic. Do you think that is why their surveys are coming out so strongly in favour of Badenoch, as she's the only candidate who's expressed real doubt about the timetable for net zero? Do the views of those who write comments coincide, at least to some degree, to those who respond to their surveys?
A fair amount I suspect, if Sunak or Mordaunt win I would expect some leakage on the right to Farage's RefUK though they also likely win back some voters from Labour and the LDs
No, I don't think so. Whoever ends up as leader of the Conservative Party, this process has clearly shown that he or she will be a prisoner of the extremist head-bangers. This is not attractive to decent Conservative voters, still less to those who currently vote Lib Dem or Labour.
The sorry truth for traditional Conservative voters is that their former party is terminally fragmented into vicious factions, who can never work together again.
People said the same about Labour a few years ago
It took 6 years and the biggest defeat since the 1930s to sort that out.
It was touch and go whether they had learned the lesson even then! It seems to have mostly taken now though.
And the Conservatives?
They seem to have learned the lesson that Boris is not a suitable man to be the leader of a nation, which is a start. But have they taken on board the second lesson- that Borisism is not a suitable way to run a country? I'm not so sure.
Are we about see Badenoch installed as the leader-in-waiting who will take over after Sunak/Truss loses in 2024?
Looks that way from those membership voting numbers.
Assuming Sunak or Truss win the leadership and then lose in 2024, though Sunak has a chance of a narrow win unlike Truss I think, then Badenoch or Patel will likely be the favourites to be Leader of the Opposition depending on which of them the ERG back
I agree with the poster below who suggested if Sunak lost Mordaunt would probably still be the main threat. I think that's plausible.
Mordaunt or Tugenhadt might be the candidate Patel or Badenoch beat in the membership vote, she would be unlikely to end up Leader of the Opposition
Patel has some of Truss's problems, I think, and Badenoch needs years' more of experience.
If say Sunak wins this leadership election, which is probably now the likeliest outcome and loses the next general election then the ERG would ensure they get their candidate in the final two next time, as they may not this time if Truss is knocked out in the final MP round.
The membership would then likely vote for that candidate to be Leader of the Opposition and the candidates the ERG would probably back in Opposition would be Badenoch or Priti Patel, maybe Steve Baker but if the Tories lose the general election he would likely have lost his marginal seat. Dorries or Rees Mogg long shots
Mogg aint keeping his seat imho.
Majority of 14k, but admittedly was only 5k in 2010. I don't think we'll be so lucky but it's at least more possible than I thought at first glance.
Liberals on 12k just behind Lab on 13K.
The Tories have no idea about the tactical vote surge that is going to hit them in 2024.
Needs the public to be smart though.
From wiki the predecessor seat was Labour held from 1997, with the Liberals not in second place since 1987. Labour got as high as 34% in 2017, whilst the LDs are about as high as they've ever been at 22%.
kjh speculated it is another seat where despite being third (albeit a close third) the LDs would be best placed to win, yet being third at a GE the Labour vote would probably hold up.
The public have occasionally shown themselves able to make that call though. In East Renfrewshire in 2017 the Tories were much further back in third behind Labour and yet the non-SNP vote solidified behind them nonetheless and they won (only to lose it in 2019).
All of which means I'd think JRM could be a lucky devil.
On those figures Sunak can easily lend Mordaunt 5 to 10 MPs to knock out Truss in the final round and still top the poll
A question for you, HYUFD. I skim through ConHome comments from time to time. What strikes me is the very high proportion opposed to net zero and, frankly, a bit climate change sceptic. Do you think that is why their surveys are coming out so strongly in favour of Badenoch, as she's the only candidate who's expressed real doubt about the timetable for net zero? Do the views of those who write comments coincide, at least to some degree, to those who respond to their surveys?
A fair amount I suspect, if Sunak or Mordaunt win I would expect some leakage on the right to Farage's RefUK though they also likely win back some voters from Labour and the LDs
No, I don't think so. Whoever ends up as leader of the Conservative Party, this process has clearly shown that he or she will be a prisoner of the extremist head-bangers. This is not attractive to decent Conservative voters, still less to those who currently vote Lib Dem or Labour.
The sorry truth for traditional Conservative voters is that their former party is terminally fragmented into vicious factions, who can never work together again.
People said the same about Labour a few years ago
It took 6 years and the biggest defeat since the 1930s to sort that out.
It was touch and go whether they had learned the lesson even then! It seems to have mostly taken now though.
And the Conservatives?
They seem to have learned the lesson that Boris is not a suitable man to be the leader of a nation, which is a start. But have they taken on board the second lesson- that Borisism is not a suitable way to run a country? I'm not so sure.
Political parties only learn lessons from electoral defeats (or major disappoints, a la 2017 for the Tories). And sometimes they won't even learn them then.
On those figures Sunak can easily lend Mordaunt 5 to 10 MPs to knock out Truss in the final round and still top the poll
A question for you, HYUFD. I skim through ConHome comments from time to time. What strikes me is the very high proportion opposed to net zero and, frankly, a bit climate change sceptic. Do you think that is why their surveys are coming out so strongly in favour of Badenoch, as she's the only candidate who's expressed real doubt about the timetable for net zero? Do the views of those who write comments coincide, at least to some degree, to those who respond to their surveys?
A fair amount I suspect, if Sunak or Mordaunt win I would expect some leakage on the right to Farage's RefUK though they also likely win back some voters from Labour and the LDs
No, I don't think so. Whoever ends up as leader of the Conservative Party, this process has clearly shown that he or she will be a prisoner of the extremist head-bangers. This is not attractive to decent Conservative voters, still less to those who currently vote Lib Dem or Labour.
The sorry truth for traditional Conservative voters is that their former party is terminally fragmented into vicious factions, who can never work together again.
People said the same about Labour a few years ago
It took 6 years and the biggest defeat since the 1930s to sort that out.
It was touch and go whether they had learned the lesson even then! It seems to have mostly taken now though.
And the Conservatives?
They seem to have learned the lesson that Boris is not a suitable man to be the leader of a nation, which is a start. But have they taken on board the second lesson- that Borisism is not a suitable way to run a country? I'm not so sure.
Political parties only learn lessons from electoral defeats (or major disappoints, a la 2017 for the Tories). And sometimes they won't even learn them then.
Or they learn completely the wrong lesson; see the election of IDS and Corbyn. And Kemi's brand of state-slashing plus culture wars might end up in the same column, even though she is smarter and more interesting than those two. Perhaps it is something the Conservatives have to try, if only to get it out of their system.
Here’s a new way of looking at this somewhat tedious Tory conference. Assume this contest is the zenith of each of the candidates political careers and they will resign following defeat and make a fast buck in the city,
Who can the Tory party least afford to lose?
Honestly, if Mordant and TT went, they would be easily replaced. That leaves Liz, Kemi and Rishi. Who is the rarest and who is a loss?
Medium term? It has to be Badenoch who would be the biggest loss. Truss would be about as much loss as my refuse binmen turning up a day late.
Short term is Rishi. He is the PM to get us through the next two years of shit before handing over to Reeves with, no doubt, a witty note about being sorry the IMF are on their way but best of luck kiddo.
if he used that epithet, she might want to write back, pointing out she is a year his senior!
Are we about see Badenoch installed as the leader-in-waiting who will take over after Sunak/Truss loses in 2024?
Looks that way from those membership voting numbers.
Assuming Sunak or Truss win the leadership and then lose in 2024, though Sunak has a chance of a narrow win unlike Truss I think, then Badenoch or Patel will likely be the favourites to be Leader of the Opposition depending on which of them the ERG back
I agree with the poster below who suggested if Sunak lost Mordaunt would probably still be the main threat. I think that's plausible.
Mordaunt or Tugenhadt might be the candidate Patel or Badenoch beat in the membership vote, she would be unlikely to end up Leader of the Opposition
Patel has some of Truss's problems, I think, and Badenoch needs years' more of experience.
If say Sunak wins this leadership election, which is probably now the likeliest outcome and loses the next general election then the ERG would ensure they get their candidate in the final two next time, as they may not this time if Truss is knocked out in the final MP round.
The membership would then likely vote for that candidate to be Leader of the Opposition and the candidates the ERG would probably back in Opposition would be Badenoch or Priti Patel, maybe Steve Baker but if the Tories lose the general election he would likely have lost his marginal seat. Dorries or Rees Mogg long shots
Mogg aint keeping his seat imho.
He is, Labour need a 13% swing to gain it, not happening even on most current polls let alone if the new Tory leader gets a poll bounce
Labour supporters will tactically vote Lib Dem in order to get rid of the most obnoxious cretin in Parliament.
Monday 2pm - 3.30pm: 1922 hustings 5pm - 7pm: MPs vote in the third round of the Conservative leadership contest 8pm: 1922 chairman Sir Graham Brady announces the result 10pm: MPs vote on whether they have confidence in the Government 1/4
Only one where Sunak has a big lead is on the economy...the one which Tory Members will probably feel different because he isn't promising tax cuts immediately.
Are we about see Badenoch installed as the leader-in-waiting who will take over after Sunak/Truss loses in 2024?
Looks that way from those membership voting numbers.
Assuming Sunak or Truss win the leadership and then lose in 2024, though Sunak has a chance of a narrow win unlike Truss I think, then Badenoch or Patel will likely be the favourites to be Leader of the Opposition depending on which of them the ERG back
I agree with the poster below who suggested if Sunak lost Mordaunt would probably still be the main threat. I think that's plausible.
Mordaunt or Tugenhadt might be the candidate Patel or Badenoch beat in the membership vote, she would be unlikely to end up Leader of the Opposition
Patel has some of Truss's problems, I think, and Badenoch needs years' more of experience.
Why are people assuming Kemi is running for leader?
She is putting a marker down to ensure a decent Cabinet slot.
Monday 2pm - 3.30pm: 1922 hustings 5pm - 7pm: MPs vote in the third round of the Conservative leadership contest 8pm: 1922 chairman Sir Graham Brady announces the result 10pm: MPs vote on whether they have confidence in the Government 1/4
So at 10pm Monday MPs vote on whether they have confidence in a govt that will be likely very different in a few weeks time. Great use of time for the country. Navel gazing in the bubble.
Here’s a new way of looking at this somewhat tedious Tory conference. Assume this contest is the zenith of each of the candidates political careers and they will resign following defeat and make a fast buck in the city,
Who can the Tory party least afford to lose?
Honestly, if Mordant and TT went, they would be easily replaced. That leaves Liz, Kemi and Rishi. Who is the rarest and who is a loss?
Medium term? It has to be Badenoch who would be the biggest loss. Truss would be about as much loss as my refuse binmen turning up a day late.
Short term is Rishi. He is the PM to get us through the next two years of shit before handing over to Reeves with, no doubt, a witty note about being sorry the IMF are on their way but best of luck kiddo.
if he used that epithet, she might want to write back, pointing out she is a year his senior!
Oh God. They were both at Oxford together - only a year apart. Reeves - New College. Sunak - Lincoln. Both PPE.
Is there no end to this university's hold on public life?
Monday 2pm - 3.30pm: 1922 hustings 5pm - 7pm: MPs vote in the third round of the Conservative leadership contest 8pm: 1922 chairman Sir Graham Brady announces the result 10pm: MPs vote on whether they have confidence in the Government 1/4
So at 10pm Monday MPs vote on whether they have confidence in a govt that will be likely very different in a few weeks time. Great use of time for the country. Navel gazing in the bubble.
I may have lost track but I think the Government is asking the House whether it still has confidence.
No one has any idea why. Except perhaps one of the idiots who run Johnson's press office.
Are we about see Badenoch installed as the leader-in-waiting who will take over after Sunak/Truss loses in 2024?
Looks that way from those membership voting numbers.
Assuming Sunak or Truss win the leadership and then lose in 2024, though Sunak has a chance of a narrow win unlike Truss I think, then Badenoch or Patel will likely be the favourites to be Leader of the Opposition depending on which of them the ERG back
I agree with the poster below who suggested if Sunak lost Mordaunt would probably still be the main threat. I think that's plausible.
Mordaunt or Tugenhadt might be the candidate Patel or Badenoch beat in the membership vote, she would be unlikely to end up Leader of the Opposition
Patel has some of Truss's problems, I think, and Badenoch needs years' more of experience.
Why are people assuming Kemi is running for leader?
She is putting a marker down to ensure a decent Cabinet slot.
Yes, this time.
But we are debating what happens at next leadership election.
Monday 2pm - 3.30pm: 1922 hustings 5pm - 7pm: MPs vote in the third round of the Conservative leadership contest 8pm: 1922 chairman Sir Graham Brady announces the result 10pm: MPs vote on whether they have confidence in the Government 1/4
So at 10pm Monday MPs vote on whether they have confidence in a govt that will be likely very different in a few weeks time. Great use of time for the country. Navel gazing in the bubble.
I may have lost track but I think the Government is asking the House whether it still has confidence.
No one has any idea why. Except perhaps one of the idiots who run Johnson's press office.
It'd be a standard stunt if Labour did it but for the gov't themselves...
Here’s a new way of looking at this somewhat tedious Tory conference. Assume this contest is the zenith of each of the candidates political careers and they will resign following defeat and make a fast buck in the city,
Who can the Tory party least afford to lose?
Honestly, if Mordant and TT went, they would be easily replaced. That leaves Liz, Kemi and Rishi. Who is the rarest and who is a loss?
Medium term? It has to be Badenoch who would be the biggest loss. Truss would be about as much loss as my refuse binmen turning up a day late.
Short term is Rishi. He is the PM to get us through the next two years of shit before handing over to Reeves with, no doubt, a witty note about being sorry the IMF are on their way but best of luck kiddo.
if he used that epithet, she might want to write back, pointing out she is a year his senior!
Oh God. They were both at Oxford together - only a year apart. Reeves - New College. Sunak - Lincoln. Both PPE.
Is there no end to this university's
hold on public life?
Fair point. Which reminds me that I need to add ‘Fen Poly’ and ‘Cowley Tech’ to my fabled list.
Monday 2pm - 3.30pm: 1922 hustings 5pm - 7pm: MPs vote in the third round of the Conservative leadership contest 8pm: 1922 chairman Sir Graham Brady announces the result 10pm: MPs vote on whether they have confidence in the Government 1/4
So at 10pm Monday MPs vote on whether they have confidence in a govt that will be likely very different in a few weeks time. Great use of time for the country. Navel gazing in the bubble.
I may have lost track but I think the Government is asking the House whether it still has confidence.
No one has any idea why. Except perhaps one of the idiots who run Johnson's press office.
The government is asking the government whether it has confidence in the government??
Only one where Sunak has a big lead is on the economy...the one which Tory Members will probably feel different because he isn't promising tax cuts immediately.
Monday 2pm - 3.30pm: 1922 hustings 5pm - 7pm: MPs vote in the third round of the Conservative leadership contest 8pm: 1922 chairman Sir Graham Brady announces the result 10pm: MPs vote on whether they have confidence in the Government 1/4
So at 10pm Monday MPs vote on whether they have confidence in a govt that will be likely very different in a few weeks time. Great use of time for the country. Navel gazing in the bubble.
I may have lost track but I think the Government is asking the House whether it still has confidence.
No one has any idea why. Except perhaps one of the idiots who run Johnson's press office.
The government is asking the government whether it has confidence in the government??
Monday 2pm - 3.30pm: 1922 hustings 5pm - 7pm: MPs vote in the third round of the Conservative leadership contest 8pm: 1922 chairman Sir Graham Brady announces the result 10pm: MPs vote on whether they have confidence in the Government 1/4
So at 10pm Monday MPs vote on whether they have confidence in a govt that will be likely very different in a few weeks time. Great use of time for the country. Navel gazing in the bubble.
I may have lost track but I think the Government is asking the House whether it still has confidence.
No one has any idea why. Except perhaps one of the idiots who run Johnson's press office.
The government is asking the government whether it has confidence in the government??
Yes. Labour tabled a motion as part of political theatre, the government decided to play procedural games about it, and then rather than just leave it at that - everyone got to have the fun of railing at the other without bothering with an actual vote - the government seemed to take the criticism of being scared of a vote to heart and so organised one of its own.
Monday 2pm - 3.30pm: 1922 hustings 5pm - 7pm: MPs vote in the third round of the Conservative leadership contest 8pm: 1922 chairman Sir Graham Brady announces the result 10pm: MPs vote on whether they have confidence in the Government 1/4
So at 10pm Monday MPs vote on whether they have confidence in a govt that will be likely very different in a few weeks time. Great use of time for the country. Navel gazing in the bubble.
I may have lost track but I think the Government is asking the House whether it still has confidence.
No one has any idea why. Except perhaps one of the idiots who run Johnson's press office.
The government is asking the government whether it has confidence in the government??
Are we about see Badenoch installed as the leader-in-waiting who will take over after Sunak/Truss loses in 2024?
Looks that way from those membership voting numbers.
Assuming Sunak or Truss win the leadership and then lose in 2024, though Sunak has a chance of a narrow win unlike Truss I think, then Badenoch or Patel will likely be the favourites to be Leader of the Opposition depending on which of them the ERG back
I agree with the poster below who suggested if Sunak lost Mordaunt would probably still be the main threat. I think that's plausible.
Mordaunt or Tugenhadt might be the candidate Patel or Badenoch beat in the membership vote, she would be unlikely to end up Leader of the Opposition
Patel has some of Truss's problems, I think, and Badenoch needs years' more of experience.
Why are people assuming Kemi is running for leader?
She is putting a marker down to ensure a decent Cabinet slot.
And Corbyn was just taking his turn to be the standard bearer of the left without expectation of being a serious contender. Paper candidates can end up winning elections.
In her case it's not getting to the members so she need not worry about accidentally getting the position too soon though.
Only one where Sunak has a big lead is on the economy...the one which Tory Members will probably feel different because he isn't promising tax cuts immediately.
Monday 2pm - 3.30pm: 1922 hustings 5pm - 7pm: MPs vote in the third round of the Conservative leadership contest 8pm: 1922 chairman Sir Graham Brady announces the result 10pm: MPs vote on whether they have confidence in the Government 1/4
So at 10pm Monday MPs vote on whether they have confidence in a govt that will be likely very different in a few weeks time. Great use of time for the country. Navel gazing in the bubble.
I may have lost track but I think the Government is asking the House whether it still has confidence.
No one has any idea why. Except perhaps one of the idiots who run Johnson's press office.
It'd be a standard stunt if Labour did it but for the gov't themselves...
What a waste of time.
I guess that the purpose is to demonstrate that despite being thrown out by his own party Johnson can still get 300 of them to walk through the lobby to say they support his government.
Or maybe he has a fantasy that he loses this vote and can ask for a dissolution?
Monday 2pm - 3.30pm: 1922 hustings 5pm - 7pm: MPs vote in the third round of the Conservative leadership contest 8pm: 1922 chairman Sir Graham Brady announces the result 10pm: MPs vote on whether they have confidence in the Government 1/4
So at 10pm Monday MPs vote on whether they have confidence in a govt that will be likely very different in a few weeks time. Great use of time for the country. Navel gazing in the bubble.
I may have lost track but I think the Government is asking the House whether it still has confidence.
No one has any idea why. Except perhaps one of the idiots who run Johnson's press office.
The government is asking the government whether it has confidence in the government??
Yes. Labour tabled a motion as part of political theatre, the government decided to play procedural games about it, and then rather than just leave it at that - everyone got to have the fun of railing at the other without bothering with
an actual vote - the government seemed to take the criticism of being scared of a vote to heart and so organised one of its own.
What do the other 4% have? If it's fitted aircon it frankly sounds too high to me - would suggest more than a million air conditioned households in the UK. Doesn't ring true.
If it's the portable stuff though it sounds too low - at least for this particular extreme couple of days. Anecdotally I have doled out all but one of our portable units to family members and know plenty who have bought them leading up to this (or in reaction to other heat waves).
They're not even expensive - way less than an iphone for example.
Way more brits than 4% will have either bought at least one, or borrowed one off friends/family. I think at least 10%. Not everyone is struggling *that* much.
The fashion for massive skylights in extensions and loft conversions has made fitted A/C a thing in the U.K.
It’s a couple of thousand extra on a £50k loft conversion, pretty much.
When you are spending a zillion on your kitchen extension/open plan living….
A very long article whose gist is that the cost of adding catapults to our aircraft carriers was deliberately inflated by the MoD. The government therefore decided not to fit them.
Without catapults, only vertical take-off aircraft could be used. Because we sold off all our Harriers, this meant F35Bs which are so expensive that we cannot afford to buy enough of them, and they are not very good anyway.
Sigh.
The Harriers were completely obsolete and couldn’t be upgraded. They had no electronic warfare capability, no power or space to include it. Dead meat vs a vaguely modern opposition. 1982 was a long time ago - and then it was pure luck that the Argentine Airforce (and Navy) had never bothered to get their fighters updated with a semi decent radar guided missile. If they had, all the Harriers would have been shot down very early on.
The F35b is pretty good - orders of magnitude better than the Harrier.
The issue with catapults is the insane amount of training required to keep pilots carrier capable. And even then, the loss rates are high. V/STOL makes it much easier - as one of Harrier designers said “First you stop. Then you land.”
Are we about see Badenoch installed as the leader-in-waiting who will take over after Sunak/Truss loses in 2024?
Looks that way from those membership voting numbers.
Assuming Sunak or Truss win the leadership and then lose in 2024, though Sunak has a chance of a narrow win unlike Truss I think, then Badenoch or Patel will likely be the favourites to be Leader of the Opposition depending on which of them the ERG back
I agree with the poster below who suggested if Sunak lost Mordaunt would probably still be the main threat. I think that's plausible.
Mordaunt or Tugenhadt might be the candidate Patel or Badenoch beat in the membership vote, she would be unlikely to end up Leader of the Opposition
Patel has some of Truss's problems, I think, and Badenoch needs years' more of experience.
Why are people assuming Kemi is running for leader?
She is putting a marker down to ensure a decent Cabinet slot.
Probably true, although if the ball comes loose from the back of the scrum...
There is a story circulating in Finland which is extremely negative for a key figure in the British Cabinet. I understand that there is considerable litigation underway concerning this story, so for the sake of OGH I will neither report what or who. However, it is extremely serious. Though the various rumoured injunctions and even super injuctions may hold for a while, I think that the story may still break quite soon. The new Conservative leader might be facing a near existential threat to the well being of the party.
There is a story circulating in Finland which is extremely negative for a key figure in the British Cabinet. I understand that there is considerable litigation underway concerning this story, so for the sake of OGH I will neither report what or who. However, it is extremely serious. Though the various rumoured injunctions and even super injuctions may hold for a while, I think that the story may still break quite soon. The new Conservative leader might be facing a near existential threat to the well being of the party.
Blimey. This is where we need Leon and his amazing twitter skills, so it is a shame about his ban.
There is a story circulating in Finland which is extremely negative for a key figure in the British Cabinet. I understand that there is considerable litigation underway concerning this story, so for the sake of OGH I will neither report what or who. However, it is extremely serious. Though the various rumoured injunctions and even super injuctions may hold for a while, I think that the story may still break quite soon. The new Conservative leader might be facing a near existential threat to the well being of the party.
Before I waste the morning running every Finnish newspaper through Google translate, do you mean circulating on Finnish mainstream media, or society/forums?
There is a story circulating in Finland which is extremely negative for a key figure in the British Cabinet. I understand that there is considerable litigation underway concerning this story, so for the sake of OGH I will neither report what or who. However, it is extremely serious. Though the various rumoured injunctions and even super injuctions may hold for a while, I think that the story may still break quite soon. The new Conservative leader might be facing a near existential threat to the well being of the party.
Before I waste the morning running every Finnish newspaper through Google translate, do you mean circulating on Finnish mainstream media, or society/forums?
Are super injunctions a thing in Finland?
Or is this UK defamation law strikes again, like the Kraken?
Is this a current or a previous cabinet Minister - we have quite a lot in the last month .
Only one where Sunak has a big lead is on the economy...the one which Tory Members will probably feel different because he isn't promising tax cuts immediately.
The most interesting figure is the one for compassion.
The two cabinet ministers score a pitiful 6 each. The other three who have no obvious association with Johnson's government around 22.
One of the features of Johnson's administration which is overlooked is how unpleasant it has become. Commentators concentrate on the amiable buffoon angle and forget that Patel is the most venal Home Secretary within memory Dorries and Rees-Mogg ooze malevolence Truss will break treaty obligations with a flick of her finger and Suella Braverman is poison.
In short Johnson has reconstructed the Nasty Party and destroyed years of Cameron and Hilton's hard work. All behind the camouflage of Brexit.
It's a pleasant relief that there is now some evidence that voters have been noticing and don't like it
There is a story circulating in Finland which is extremely negative for a key figure in the British Cabinet. I understand that there is considerable litigation underway concerning this story, so for the sake of OGH I will neither report what or who. However, it is extremely serious. Though the various rumoured injunctions and even super injuctions may hold for a while, I think that the story may still break quite soon. The new Conservative leader might be facing a near existential threat to the well being of the party.
Before I waste the morning running every Finnish newspaper through Google translate, do you mean circulating on Finnish mainstream media, or society/forums?
Are super injunctions a thing in Finland?
Or is this UK defamation law strikes again, like the Kraken?
Is this a current or a previous cabinet Minister - we have quite a lot in the last month .
Presumably this is unrelated to Zahawi’s family trust used for tax avoiding on his yougov shares, which is in the times and guardian.
Can anyome summarise briefly what's causing the warm spell? I'm hoping it'll be a bit gusty and blow over.
Strong southerly wind. Most of the very hot days I can remember previously have been almost wind-free. This is going to be strange by comparison, with a hot wind blowing most of the time.
Which should take the edge off the heat for those of us down by the sea
Who was the PBer who said they'd eat their hat IF it hit 40? And what's best beverage to wash it down?
Looks like it will be a close-run thing. Glad I am NOT there to experience in person. But fear my time may come later this summer.
That was me. Looks like I'll be eating my hat.
If you said 36C yes it will probably be hat-eating time. If you said 40C I would hold on to that hat, it's still touch and go. eg tomorrow was expected to reach 40C - but cloud and rain in places might nudge it down to the high 30s. So then it is Tuesday. The heat will build from a higher base, so 40C is certainly POSSIBLE....
Forecast at peaking at 33 today in Merseyside, and a degree warmer tomorrow. "A pleasant summer afternoon," connents my son-in-law in Sydney. "What's the fuss about?" Yet when he saw a light frost when he was here the first time one April, he was his knees on the lawn taking pictures.
Europe’s plans for next year’s Ryder Cup are in chaos as their captain, Henrik Stenson, looks set to confirm plans to join the Saudi-backed LIV Golf tour.
Reports in Sweden said Stenson is now expected to be stripped of the captaincy after choosing to join other leading European Ryder Cup figures including Sergio García and Ian Poulter on the rebel tour.
Stenson, the 46-year-old Swede who won the Open in 2016, has been linked with LIV for some time, but it was assumed he had decided not to take up an offer after accepting the Ryder Cup captaincy against the US team in Rome next autumn.
When he took up the role in March, Stenson said: “There’s been a lot of speculation back and forth and, as I said, I am fully committed to the captaincy and to Ryder Cup Europe and the job in hand.”
Forecast at peaking at 33 today in Merseyside, and a degree warmer tomorrow. "A pleasant summer afternoon," connents my son-in-law in Sydney. "What's the fuss about?" Yet when he saw a light frost when he was here the first time one April, he was his knees on the lawn taking pictures.
There is a story circulating in Finland which is extremely negative for a key figure in the British Cabinet. I understand that there is considerable litigation underway concerning this story, so for the sake of OGH I will neither report what or who. However, it is extremely serious. Though the various rumoured injunctions and even super injuctions may hold for a while, I think that the story may still break quite soon. The new Conservative leader might be facing a near existential threat to the well being of the party.
Before I waste the morning running every Finnish newspaper through Google translate, do you mean circulating on Finnish mainstream media, or society/forums?
Are super injunctions a thing in Finland?
Or is this UK defamation law strikes again, like the Kraken?
Is this a current or a previous cabinet Minister - we have quite a lot in the last month .
Presumably this is unrelated to Zahawi’s family trust used for tax avoiding on his yougov shares, which is in the times and guardian.
The G still don't have much there - just so far trying to generate a cloud of outrage around stuff which is not problematic legally afaics. Plus dark hints about Mr & Mrs Zahawi, which would seem to go against the G's alleged values about female autonomy.
I'm interested that Z is alleged to have used unsecured rather than secured loans on property. The latter would be less expensive, surely?
Only one where Sunak has a big lead is on the economy...the one which Tory Members will probably feel different because he isn't promising tax cuts immediately.
Badenoch’s ratings are interesting. The members seem to want her for the conservative values that the public don’t see that she has (maybe identity is her disguise?), not for the compassion - which those on the receiving end if these policies are most unlikely to perceive.
39ºC for some of us already, at 10am this morning. Hoping for 42 or 43 by lunchtime. ☀️
Seriously though, if it gets that high in the UK, stay indoors and drink lots of water. Or find a building with aircon - office, hotel, shopping centre, pub, even sit in the car for an hour (in the shade).
39ºC for some of us already, at 10am this morning. Hoping for 42 or 43 by lunchtime. ☀️
Seriously though, if it gets that high in the UK, stay indoors and drink lots of water. Or find a building with aircon - office, hotel, shopping centre, pub, even sit in the car for an hour (in the shade).
39ºC for some of us already, at 10am this morning. Hoping for 42 or 43 by lunchtime. ☀️
Seriously though, if it gets that high in the UK, stay indoors and drink lots of water. Or find a building with aircon - office, hotel, shopping centre, pub, even sit in the car for an hour (in the shade).
42 you say?
That's the BBC app, usually less accurate than Dominic Cummings. The Met Office is forecasting 38. Which is still a helluva lot hotter than the previous record.
There’s a bit of a myth about A/C in the hot south of Europe. Certainly in Spain, a large number of private residences - probably most - don’t have it. I have good friends in a town near Barcelona, both with well-paid jobs, who have just moved into a new flat that is not equipped with it. Very few older places are. Remember, too, that it’s very expensive to run - especially at a time when energy prices are very high.
The traditional antidote to the summer heat has always been shutters, open windows and shadowed areas on streets and in squares. For a lot of people that remains the case. Most of all, though, it has been the siesta. The southern Europeans were never lazy, they were just smart enough to know it’s absurd to work during the hottest part of the day.
There is a story circulating in Finland which is extremely negative for a key figure in the British Cabinet. I understand that there is considerable litigation underway concerning this story, so for the sake of OGH I will neither report what or who. However, it is extremely serious. Though the various rumoured injunctions and even super injuctions may hold for a while, I think that the story may still break quite soon. The new Conservative leader might be facing a near existential threat to the well being of the party.
Before I waste the morning running every Finnish newspaper through Google translate, do you mean circulating on Finnish mainstream media, or society/forums?
Are super injunctions a thing in Finland?
Or is this UK defamation law strikes again, like the Kraken?
Is this a current or a previous cabinet Minister - we have quite a lot in the last month .
Presumably this is unrelated to Zahawi’s family trust used for tax avoiding on his yougov shares, which is in the times and guardian.
My presumably - wild guessing being allowed as I have absolutely no information - is that this would concern connections with Russia?
For betting purposes all we really need to know is what impact it might have on the leadership election? I would guess the party would go for who was most obviously the (relatively) clean handed outsider left standing at the time the story breaks?
There’s a bit of a myth about A/C in the hot south of Europe. Certainly in Spain, a large number of private residences - probably most - don’t have it. I have good friends in a town near Barcelona, both with well-paid jobs, who have just moved into a new flat that is not equipped with it. Very few older places are. Remember, too, that it’s very expensive to run - especially at a time when energy prices are very high.
The traditional antidote to the summer heat has always been shutters, open windows and shadowed areas on streets and in squares. For a lot of people that remains the case. Most of all, though, it has been the siesta. The southern Europeans were never lazy, they were just smart enough to know it’s absurd to work during the hottest part of the day.
Mad dogs and Englishmen will still go out in the midday sun today though.
Europe’s plans for next year’s Ryder Cup are in chaos as their captain, Henrik Stenson, looks set to confirm plans to join the Saudi-backed LIV Golf tour.
Reports in Sweden said Stenson is now expected to be stripped of the captaincy after choosing to join other leading European Ryder Cup figures including Sergio García and Ian Poulter on the rebel tour.
Stenson, the 46-year-old Swede who won the Open in 2016, has been linked with LIV for some time, but it was assumed he had decided not to take up an offer after accepting the Ryder Cup captaincy against the US team in Rome next autumn.
When he took up the role in March, Stenson said: “There’s been a lot of speculation back and forth and, as I said, I am fully committed to the captaincy and to Ryder Cup Europe and the job in hand.”
39ºC for some of us already, at 10am this morning. Hoping for 42 or 43 by lunchtime. ☀️
Seriously though, if it gets that high in the UK, stay indoors and drink lots of water. Or find a building with aircon - office, hotel, shopping centre, pub, even sit in the car for an hour (in the shade).
42 you say?
That's the BBC app, usually less accurate than Dominic Cummings. The Met Office is forecasting 38. Which is still a helluva lot hotter than the previous record.
Either way it is going to be hotter than the devil's arsehole.
I like hot weather even less than I like pineapple on pizza.
There is a story circulating in Finland which is extremely negative for a key figure in the British Cabinet. I understand that there is considerable litigation underway concerning this story, so for the sake of OGH I will neither report what or who. However, it is extremely serious. Though the various rumoured injunctions and even super injuctions may hold for a while, I think that the story may still break quite soon. The new Conservative leader might be facing a near existential threat to the well being of the party.
Before I waste the morning running every Finnish newspaper through Google translate, do you mean circulating on Finnish mainstream media, or society/forums?
Are super injunctions a thing in Finland?
Or is this UK defamation law strikes again, like the Kraken?
Is this a current or a previous cabinet Minister - we have quite a lot in the last month .
Presumably this is unrelated to Zahawi’s family trust used for tax avoiding on his yougov shares, which is in the times and guardian.
My presumably - wild guessing being allowed as I have absolutely no information - is that this would concern connections with Russia?
For betting purposes all we really need to know is what impact it might have on the leadership election? I would guess the party would go for who was most obviously the (relatively) clean handed outsider left standing at the time the story breaks?
I really hope that someone’s not holding a major story back, in an attempt to bounce the membership vote.
If there’s any genuine dirt on any of the remaining candidates, it needs to be in the public domain while the MPs are still free to make their choices.
There’s a bit of a myth about A/C in the hot south of Europe. Certainly in Spain, a large number of private residences - probably most - don’t have it. I have good friends in a town near Barcelona, both with well-paid jobs, who have just moved into a new flat that is not equipped with it. Very few older places are. Remember, too, that it’s very expensive to run - especially at a time when energy prices are very high.
The traditional antidote to the summer heat has always been shutters, open windows and shadowed areas on streets and in squares. For a lot of people that remains the case. Most of all, though, it has been the siesta. The southern Europeans were never lazy, they were just smart enough to know it’s absurd to work during the hottest part of the day.
Mad dogs and Englishmen will still go out in the midday sun today though.
Still no message from work so it looks like I will be cycling in. Coming home it looks set to be 39 degrees, which will be interesting.
39ºC for some of us already, at 10am this morning. Hoping for 42 or 43 by lunchtime. ☀️
Seriously though, if it gets that high in the UK, stay indoors and drink lots of water. Or find a building with aircon - office, hotel, shopping centre, pub, even sit in the car for an hour (in the shade).
42 you say?
That's the BBC app, usually less accurate than Dominic Cummings. The Met Office is forecasting 38. Which is still a helluva lot hotter than the previous record.
Either way it is going to be hotter than the devil's arsehole.
I like hot weather even less than I like pineapple on pizza.
It's going to be like Star Wars, the Rise of Skywalker, with everyone angry and bewildered at just how shit it is.
There’s a bit of a myth about A/C in the hot south of Europe. Certainly in Spain, a large number of private residences - probably most - don’t have it. I have good friends in a town near Barcelona, both with well-paid jobs, who have just moved into a new flat that is not equipped with it. Very few older places are. Remember, too, that it’s very expensive to run - especially at a time when energy prices are very high.
The traditional antidote to the summer heat has always been shutters, open windows and shadowed areas on streets and in squares. For a lot of people that remains the case. Most of all, though, it has been the siesta. The southern Europeans were never lazy, they were just smart enough to know it’s absurd to work during the hottest part of the day.
I am not a massively travelled person internationally, but it seems odd to me that the maximum heat where I am today is going to be between 16.00 and 18.00, and tomorrow from 14.00 to 16.00.
I'd have expected the maximum to be somewhere just after midday, not so late in the afternoon or early evening. Is this the result of the cause of the heatwave, or something to do with our inclination/orbit (my *impression* is that we in the UK usually have max heat in mid-afternoon, not lunchtime).
There is a story circulating in Finland which is extremely negative for a key figure in the British Cabinet. I understand that there is considerable litigation underway concerning this story, so for the sake of OGH I will neither report what or who. However, it is extremely serious. Though the various rumoured injunctions and even super injuctions may hold for a while, I think that the story may still break quite soon. The new Conservative leader might be facing a near existential threat to the well being of the party.
Before I waste the morning running every Finnish newspaper through Google translate, do you mean circulating on Finnish mainstream media, or society/forums?
Are super injunctions a thing in Finland?
Or is this UK defamation law strikes again, like the Kraken?
Is this a current or a previous cabinet Minister - we have quite a lot in the last month .
Presumably this is unrelated to Zahawi’s family trust used for tax avoiding on his yougov shares, which is in the times and guardian.
My presumably - wild guessing being allowed as I have absolutely no information - is that this would concern connections with Russia?
For betting purposes all we really need to know is what impact it might have on the leadership election? I would guess the party would go for who was most obviously the (relatively) clean handed outsider left standing at the time the story breaks?
I really hope that someone’s not holding a major story back, in an attempt to bounce the membership vote.
If there’s any genuine dirt on any of the remaining candidates, it needs to be in the public domain while the MPs are still free to make their choices.
Yes it’s going to be unfortunate if we end up with two kompromised candidates in the run off
Who was the PBer who said they'd eat their hat IF it hit 40? And what's best beverage to wash it down?
Looks like it will be a close-run thing. Glad I am NOT there to experience in person. But fear my time may come later this summer.
That was me. Looks like I'll be eating my hat.
If you said 36C yes it will probably be hat-eating time. If you said 40C I would hold on to that hat, it's still touch and go. eg tomorrow was expected to reach 40C - but cloud and rain in places might nudge it down to the high 30s. So then it is Tuesday. The heat will build from a higher base, so 40C is certainly POSSIBLE....
Your new personal seems somehow more, sensible?
In Person of Interest, the first iteration of the AI was an evil, murderous nutter. It’s creator killed it, twiddled some variables and tried again. After killing it another 78 times, he came up with version that had a moral compass.
39ºC for some of us already, at 10am this morning. Hoping for 42 or 43 by lunchtime. ☀️
Seriously though, if it gets that high in the UK, stay indoors and drink lots of water. Or find a building with aircon - office, hotel, shopping centre, pub, even sit in the car for an hour (in the shade).
42 you say?
That's the BBC app, usually less accurate than Dominic Cummings. The Met Office is forecasting 38. Which is still a helluva lot hotter than the previous record.
Comments
Laura Parker
@ParkerCiccone
This is just NOT TRUE!
I was at the same school at the same time as
@trussliz
It provided support to children for whom English was a second language; had good special needs provision; excelled in sport, music and drama; and had significant numbers going to university.
The sorry truth for traditional Conservative voters is that their former party is terminally fragmented into vicious factions, who can never work together again.
Chris Miller
@chrismiller_uk
Where is the hottest place you've ever been?
Ash Sarkar
@AyoCaesar
·
4h
The Central Line
If someone returned under a new name and behaved themselves for while, a ban will have had an effect.
Obsessing about it is just silliness.
Who can the Tory party least afford to lose?
Honestly, if Mordant and TT went, they would be easily replaced. That leaves Liz, Kemi and Rishi. Who is the rarest and who is a loss?
Edit: That photo is literally the right way round. I think.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/07/17/how-13-whitehall-mandarins-crippled-britains-aircraft-carriers/ (£££)
A very long article whose gist is that the cost of adding catapults to our aircraft carriers was deliberately inflated by the MoD. The government therefore decided not to fit them.
Without catapults, only vertical take-off aircraft could be used. Because we sold off all our Harriers, this meant F35Bs which are so expensive that we cannot afford to buy enough of them, and they are not very good anyway.
The Tories have no idea about the tactical vote surge that is going to hit them in 2024.
Short term is Rishi. He is the PM to get us through the next two years of shit before handing over to Reeves with, no doubt, a witty note about being sorry the IMF are on their way but best of luck kiddo.
They seem to have learned the lesson that Boris is not a suitable man to be the leader of a nation, which is a start. But have they taken on board the second lesson- that Borisism is not a suitable way to run a country? I'm not so sure.
From wiki the predecessor seat was Labour held from 1997, with the Liberals not in second place since 1987. Labour got as high as 34% in 2017, whilst the LDs are about as high as they've ever been at 22%.
kjh speculated it is another seat where despite being third (albeit a close third) the LDs would be best placed to win, yet being third at a GE the Labour vote would probably hold up.
The public have occasionally shown themselves able to make that call though. In East Renfrewshire in 2017 the Tories were much further back in third behind Labour and yet the non-SNP vote solidified behind them nonetheless and they won (only to lose it in 2019).
All of which means I'd think JRM could be a lucky devil.
Jess Phillips MP
@jessphillips
·
3h
I'm totally ready for Rishi.
Christopher Hope📝
@christopherhope
What’s happening this week?
Monday
2pm - 3.30pm: 1922 hustings
5pm - 7pm: MPs vote in the third round of the Conservative leadership contest
8pm: 1922 chairman Sir Graham Brady announces the result
10pm: MPs vote on whether they have confidence in the Government 1/4
https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1548751910315954176
https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1548786016928014343?cxt=HHwWjoCxwaarsv4qAAAA
She is putting a marker down to ensure a decent Cabinet slot.
Is there no end to this university's hold on public life?
No one has any idea why. Except perhaps one of the idiots who run Johnson's press office.
But we are debating what happens at next leadership election.
What a waste of time.
But seriously, if Tom T got to be put to membership he could win this.
In her case it's not getting to the members so she need not worry about accidentally getting the position too soon though.
Or maybe he has a fantasy that he loses this vote and can ask for a dissolution?
It’s a couple of thousand extra on a £50k loft conversion, pretty much.
When you are spending a zillion on your kitchen extension/open plan living….
The Harriers were completely obsolete and couldn’t be upgraded. They had no electronic warfare capability, no power or space to include it. Dead meat vs a vaguely modern opposition. 1982 was a long time ago - and then it was pure luck that the Argentine Airforce (and Navy) had never bothered to get their fighters updated with a semi decent radar guided missile. If they had, all the Harriers would have been shot down very early on.
The F35b is pretty good - orders of magnitude better than the Harrier.
The issue with catapults is the insane amount of training required to keep pilots carrier capable. And even then, the loss rates are high. V/STOL makes it much easier - as one of Harrier designers said “First you stop. Then you land.”
BBC: 40C
Met Office: 36C
Tuesday is the real killer, 40C forecast in London and 42-43C further north.
That looks about 2C too high perhaps, but we shall see.
Betfair next prime minister
2.28 Rishi Sunak 44%
3.8 Penny Mordaunt 26%
4.9 Liz Truss 20%
12.5 Kemi Badenoch 8%
130 Tom Tugendhat
230 Dominic Raab
Next Conservative leader
2.3 Rishi Sunak 43%
3.75 Penny Mordaunt 27%
4.4 Liz Truss 23%
14.5 Kemi Badenoch 7%
150 Tom Tugendhat
To be in final two
1.05 Rishi Sunak 95%
1.7 Penny Mordaunt 59%
2.64 Liz Truss 38%
8 Kemi Badenoch 13%
100 Tom Tugendhat
Today is a good day to bury bad news.
As me again in 12 hours...
Mordaunt out a bit. Looking like Sunak's to lose?
Or is this UK defamation law strikes again, like the Kraken?
Is this a current or a previous cabinet Minister - we have quite a lot in the last month
18° in Leicester but 30° on the BBC for 1100 and 38° at 1600, 22° at midnight. Shouldn't be too bad.
The two cabinet ministers score a pitiful 6 each. The other three who have no obvious association with Johnson's government around 22.
One of the features of Johnson's administration which is overlooked is how unpleasant it has become. Commentators concentrate on the amiable buffoon angle and forget that Patel is the most venal Home Secretary within memory Dorries and Rees-Mogg ooze malevolence Truss will break treaty obligations with a flick of her finger and Suella Braverman is poison.
In short Johnson has reconstructed the Nasty Party and destroyed years of Cameron and Hilton's hard work. All behind the camouflage of Brexit.
It's a pleasant relief that there is now some evidence that voters have been noticing and don't like it
But that doesn't necessarily mean that he is wrong.
Europe’s plans for next year’s Ryder Cup are in chaos as their captain, Henrik Stenson, looks set to confirm plans to join the Saudi-backed LIV Golf tour.
Reports in Sweden said Stenson is now expected to be stripped of the captaincy after choosing to join other leading European Ryder Cup figures including Sergio García and Ian Poulter on the rebel tour.
Stenson, the 46-year-old Swede who won the Open in 2016, has been linked with LIV for some time, but it was assumed he had decided not to take up an offer after accepting the Ryder Cup captaincy against the US team in Rome next autumn.
When he took up the role in March, Stenson said: “There’s been a lot of speculation back and forth and, as I said, I am fully committed to the captaincy and to Ryder Cup Europe and the job in hand.”
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sergio-garcia-turns-his-back-on-dp-world-tour-and-ryder-cup-captain-henrik-stenson-may-follow-bbpt97sz7
I'm interested that Z is alleged to have used unsecured rather than secured loans on property. The latter would be less expensive, surely?
Whether something will emerge ...
Seriously though, if it gets that high in the UK, stay indoors and drink lots of water. Or find a building with aircon - office, hotel, shopping centre, pub, even sit in the car for an hour (in the shade).
Wednesday's high is lower than the lowest overnight temperature forecast.
The traditional antidote to the summer heat has always been shutters, open windows and shadowed areas on streets and in squares. For a lot of people that remains the case. Most of all, though, it has been the siesta. The southern Europeans were never lazy, they were just smart enough to know it’s absurd to work during the hottest part of the day.
For betting purposes all we really need to know is what impact it might have on the leadership election? I would guess the party would go for who was most obviously the (relatively) clean handed outsider left standing at the time the story breaks?
They seem to be working hard to prevent a competitor entering the market by using penalties on independent contractors
I like hot weather even less than I like pineapple on pizza.
If there’s any genuine dirt on any of the remaining candidates, it needs to be in the public domain while the MPs are still free to make their choices.
I'd have expected the maximum to be somewhere just after midday, not so late in the afternoon or early evening. Is this the result of the cause of the heatwave, or something to do with our inclination/orbit (my *impression* is that we in the UK usually have max heat in mid-afternoon, not lunchtime).
Irresponsible in the extreme. Don’t go to the beach if it’s 40ºC outside.
I shall keep the windows open, and the doors and admire (some of) the comments on PB!