Gosh. And the MPs are going to exclude her from the run-off. The members will be livid. Imagine going to a restaurant and the dish you want - the one you've been really looking forward to ordering - is 'off'.
Nah. They had barely heard of her 2 weeks ago, will retain some fond memorie of her 2 weeks from now, but will move on.
The chef said they were out of the beef, but the pork was still available, and you end up loving it.
And the whole point of the Tory system is to stop the members ordering trifle for main course in the first place.
Take a look at Nick's summary about how well each one came across personality-wise. I'm not saying Nick is right (and there seems to be a wide range of opinions on her about who did well) but he is an ex-MP and so may have a better understanding of how MPs look at these things. I thought his comment about Badenoch was interesting in that she seems to be looking to broaden her appeal. She almost certainly will benefit from the Con Home survey released today. Truss did enough tonight to probably stop the doubts but I don't see why Sunak would pick up so many votes as his performance tonight was pretty much like his performance on Friday.
TT definitely looks out after tonight. The one I would question about is Penny M. I didn't think she was that great and her closing statement was a bit weak. I can see a few of her backers thinking that she will never get over the self-ID when it comes to the membership and, together with not that inspiring a performance, wondering should they switch.
I think the only safe assumption I would make about this race at the moment is that TT will be out tomorrow.
I'm assuming Sunak picks up some from the bleedage from Tugendhat and some from Mordaunt, though she picks ups enough elsewhere to still move forward slightly.
As @IshmaelZ says, if TT wants to make a clean sweep, he only really has two options. In that regards, I do wonder whether Badenoch's comment that 'we should move on from Brexit' was a pitch to some of his supporters who support the clean start agenda.
Did all those saying Truss did better watch the same thing as me?! Does no one have anything to say about her praising the Bank of Japan for “keeping inflation low”? What a helmet. All those years round Cabinet and her grasp of economics is frighteningly poor.
Wait.
Who said that the BoJ did a great job keeping inflation low? That's a spectacularly moronic comment.
That would be Liz Truss.
"All we need to do is to copy Japan, and engineer a three decade long economic stagnation that sees debt-to-GDP swell to more than 250% of GDP. This, my friends, this is progress."
Ambassador to USA 7/1 Editor of Evening Standard 10/1 Next host of Countdown 10/1 Mayor of London 16/1 Staffer for Donald Trump 33/1 Speaker 50/1 Classics master at Eton 50/1 Ambassador to the EU 80/1 Commissioner for Standards in Public Life 100/1 Controller of Channel 4 100/1 Interior designer 250/1 500 bar
Betway
No mention of HIGNFY, or standing for Prez of the USA?
Or maybe they don't like the idea of the Conservatives having a black female PM.
You really are a piece of work, throwing around groundless accusations of racism.
Linguistic oddity, that. "Nasty piece of work" used to be the expression, pow itself being neutral and good, bad and indifferent pieces of work being on the cards.
I think it's American, most of the stupid versions of phrases come from there.
'Tell me about it' is the American version of the British - 'Don't tell me about it', which makes much more sense, but you don't hear any more. 'I could care less' is another American one.
Take a look at Nick's summary about how well each one came across personality-wise. I'm not saying Nick is right (and there seems to be a wide range of opinions on her about who did well) but he is an ex-MP and so may have a better understanding of how MPs look at these things. I thought his comment about Badenoch was interesting in that she seems to be looking to broaden her appeal. She almost certainly will benefit from the Con Home survey released today. Truss did enough tonight to probably stop the doubts but I don't see why Sunak would pick up so many votes as his performance tonight was pretty much like his performance on Friday.
TT definitely looks out after tonight. The one I would question about is Penny M. I didn't think she was that great and her closing statement was a bit weak. I can see a few of her backers thinking that she will never get over the self-ID when it comes to the membership and, together with not that inspiring a performance, wondering should they switch.
I think the only safe assumption I would make about this race at the moment is that TT will be out tomorrow.
I'm assuming Sunak picks up some from the bleedage from Tugendhat and some from Mordaunt, though she picks ups enough elsewhere to still move forward slightly.
As @IshmaelZ says, if TT wants to make a clean sweep, he only really has two options. In that regards, I do wonder whether Badenoch's comment that 'we should move on from Brexit' was a pitch to some of his supporters who support the clean start agenda.
This wasn't about who TT endorses though, it was about whether he will lose any support in advance of the vote and his defeat. If some MPs were backing him principally as a steady option, Sunak could pick those up. We know not all MPs backing a candidate will follow that candidate anyway.
Ambassador to USA 7/1 Editor of Evening Standard 10/1 Next host of Countdown 10/1 Mayor of London 16/1 Staffer for Donald Trump 33/1 Speaker 50/1 Classics master at Eton 50/1 Ambassador to the EU 80/1 Commissioner for Standards in Public Life 100/1 Controller of Channel 4 100/1 Interior designer 250/1 500 bar
Betway
No mention of HIGNFY, or standing for Prez of the USA?
Take a look at Nick's summary about how well each one came across personality-wise. I'm not saying Nick is right (and there seems to be a wide range of opinions on her about who did well) but he is an ex-MP and so may have a better understanding of how MPs look at these things. I thought his comment about Badenoch was interesting in that she seems to be looking to broaden her appeal. She almost certainly will benefit from the Con Home survey released today. Truss did enough tonight to probably stop the doubts but I don't see why Sunak would pick up so many votes as his performance tonight was pretty much like his performance on Friday.
TT definitely looks out after tonight. The one I would question about is Penny M. I didn't think she was that great and her closing statement was a bit weak. I can see a few of her backers thinking that she will never get over the self-ID when it comes to the membership and, together with not that inspiring a performance, wondering should they switch.
I think the only safe assumption I would make about this race at the moment is that TT will be out tomorrow.
If he's got any sense, he won't wait for the vote. Endorsing now buys him the best post leadership race Cabinet position - assuming his candidate wins, of course!
Ambassador to USA 7/1 Editor of Evening Standard 10/1 Next host of Countdown 10/1 Mayor of London 16/1 Staffer for Donald Trump 33/1 Speaker 50/1 Classics master at Eton 50/1 Ambassador to the EU 80/1 Commissioner for Standards in Public Life 100/1 Controller of Channel 4 100/1 Interior designer 250/1 500 bar
Betway
No mention of HIGNFY, or standing for Prez of the USA?
These are the voters who matter. Tory MPs take note when voting tomorrow.
The Tory membership had Mordaunt in the lead only two days ago. The next survey won't have Badenoch nearly as high after tonight's debate performance. MPs know these characters way better than all of us so they shouldn't be too influenced by surveys of members who barely know them.
Especially when the ConHome "survey" is a classic ice cream poll, highly susceptible to manipulation by manipulators.
Might that be purpose for which it's deliberately designed?
Ambassador to USA 7/1 Editor of Evening Standard 10/1 Next host of Countdown 10/1 Mayor of London 16/1 Staffer for Donald Trump 33/1 Speaker 50/1 Classics master at Eton 50/1 Ambassador to the EU 80/1 Commissioner for Standards in Public Life 100/1 Controller of Channel 4 100/1 Interior designer 250/1 500 bar
Betway
No mention of HIGNFY, or standing for Prez of the USA?
Head of Better Together 2
Now that would be fun.
Not exactly a fair fight though.
He's been minister for the Union for what is it, a midge's bawhair under three years? Bit late to complain.
Take a look at Nick's summary about how well each one came across personality-wise. I'm not saying Nick is right (and there seems to be a wide range of opinions on her about who did well) but he is an ex-MP and so may have a better understanding of how MPs look at these things. I thought his comment about Badenoch was interesting in that she seems to be looking to broaden her appeal. She almost certainly will benefit from the Con Home survey released today. Truss did enough tonight to probably stop the doubts but I don't see why Sunak would pick up so many votes as his performance tonight was pretty much like his performance on Friday.
TT definitely looks out after tonight. The one I would question about is Penny M. I didn't think she was that great and her closing statement was a bit weak. I can see a few of her backers thinking that she will never get over the self-ID when it comes to the membership and, together with not that inspiring a performance, wondering should they switch.
I think the only safe assumption I would make about this race at the moment is that TT will be out tomorrow.
I'm assuming Sunak picks up some from the bleedage from Tugendhat and some from Mordaunt, though she picks ups enough elsewhere to still move forward slightly.
As @IshmaelZ says, if TT wants to make a clean sweep, he only really has two options. In that regards, I do wonder whether Badenoch's comment that 'we should move on from Brexit' was a pitch to some of his supporters who support the clean start agenda.
This wasn't about who TT endorses though, it was about whether he will lose any support in advance of the vote and his defeat. If some MPs were backing him principally as a steady option, Sunak could pick those up. We know not all MPs backing a candidate will follow that candidate anyway.
I don't think you can assume the Braverman vote will move en bloc to Truss as I don't think the ERG vote is as monolithic as made out (McVey and Davies were backing Hunt FFS). Plus, how many MPs in RW seats and not sitting on Francois' 31K majority really see Truss as the one who will keep them their seats?
The MP electorate in this Tory contest is a hell of a lot different from the previous contests in terms of its composition etc.
Number of Liberal Democrat seats at next UK GE - William Hill (The Lib Dems won 8 seats at the last GE, on the new boundaries, according to Baxter’s sums.)
Over 25 seats 4/7 Over 40 seats 2/1 Over 60 seats 13/2
Counting out TT and KB who won’t get close. It has to be Mordaunt that wins by a process of elimination. Sunak can’t be trusted going into a recession. And Truss comes across as a less intelligent less electable version of Boris.
Mordaunt is a very imperfect candidate but as HYUFD says, if she appoints good people than the country might be ok. She can be the apple pie and curves for the breakfast tv sofas.
With Hunt as Chancellor (not Sunak!), Kemi as Chief Sec to Treasury, TT Foreign Sec, Wallace defence. And then some mug as Home. I struggle to find a job for Sunak because he doesn’t deserve the big jobs ahead of the others and he’s too savvy to do the Home Office. Might as well keep Javid where he is (was!). Education up for grabs in my cabinet if Sunak wants it.
Ambassador to USA 7/1 Editor of Evening Standard 10/1 Next host of Countdown 10/1 Mayor of London 16/1 Staffer for Donald Trump 33/1 Speaker 50/1 Classics master at Eton 50/1 Ambassador to the EU 80/1 Commissioner for Standards in Public Life 100/1 Controller of Channel 4 100/1 Interior designer 250/1 500 bar
Betway
Why are the odds so short on Commissioner for Standards in Public Life? Infinity to 1 more appropriate. Only possibility is for the laughs.
On those figures Sunak can easily lend Mordaunt 5 to 10 MPs to knock out Truss in the final round and still top the poll
Would that not doom him among members though? It'd be a bit obvious.
Cameron lent a few MPs to Davis in 2005 in the last round to knock out Fox, IDS lent a few MPs to Clarke in 2001 to knock out Portillo, Boris likely lent a few to Hunt in 2019 to knock out Gove, did not stop any of them winning the membership vote
I have been readying for our trip to Scotland and the Caledonian canal and only caught the end of the debate
Sunak seemed to be the best and I just find the rest very run of the mill
While we are talking of hot weather, we lost a local 24 year old female paddle boarder in Conwy on Friday evening, notwithstanding all the efforts of the RNLI and the coastguard, my son and his colleagues rescued a father and son who had fallen out of their kayak and been in the sea for 40 minutes the night previously, and tonight they have been out to rescue a lilo floating out to sea with its occupant
Indeed the coastguard are receiving numerous 999 calls at present, and people need to respect the sea and not put their lives at risk or the volunteer RNLI crews
It's going to be rough for your son and his compatriots, as folks head for the water to beat the heat.
Big problem in Pacific Northwest when we get heatwaves, as the water is generally VERY cold, both saltwater (North Pacific, straits & Puget Sound) and freshwater (glacier-fed rivers).
Take a look at Nick's summary about how well each one came across personality-wise. I'm not saying Nick is right (and there seems to be a wide range of opinions on her about who did well) but he is an ex-MP and so may have a better understanding of how MPs look at these things. I thought his comment about Badenoch was interesting in that she seems to be looking to broaden her appeal. She almost certainly will benefit from the Con Home survey released today. Truss did enough tonight to probably stop the doubts but I don't see why Sunak would pick up so many votes as his performance tonight was pretty much like his performance on Friday.
TT definitely looks out after tonight. The one I would question about is Penny M. I didn't think she was that great and her closing statement was a bit weak. I can see a few of her backers thinking that she will never get over the self-ID when it comes to the membership and, together with not that inspiring a performance, wondering should they switch.
I think the only safe assumption I would make about this race at the moment is that TT will be out tomorrow.
I'm assuming Sunak picks up some from the bleedage from Tugendhat and some from Mordaunt, though she picks ups enough elsewhere to still move forward slightly.
As IshmaelZ says, if TT wants to make a clean sweep, he only really has two options. In that regards, I do wonder whether Badenoch's comment that 'we should move on from Brexit' was a pitch to some of his supporters who support the clean start agenda.
This wasn't about who TT endorses though, it was about whether he will lose any support in advance of the vote and his defeat. If some MPs were backing him principally as a steady option, Sunak could pick those up. We know not all MPs backing a candidate will follow that candidate anyway.
I don't think you can assume the Braverman vote will move en bloc to Truss as I don't think the ERG vote is as monolithic as made out (McVey and Davies were backing Hunt FFS). Plus, how many MPs in RW seats and not sitting on Francois' 31K majority really see Truss as the one who will keep them their seats?
The MP electorate in this Tory contest is a hell of a lot different from the previous contests in terms of its composition etc.
Not assuming all of Braverman vote goes across, hence why Truss only up 20. I also assume a few switchers from Mordaunt, though both are on the basis the MPs in question felt Truss was stronger tonight, as I did though those polled did not.
We may see a really important UK weather record broken in the next two days - but not (just) the obvious highest temp ever, instead: the record highest minimum
At present that is 23.9 from August 2003, in Brighton
London tomorrow is not expected to go below 24C: absolutely tropical weather
Or maybe they don't like the idea of the Conservatives having a black female PM.
You really are a piece of work, throwing around groundless accusations of racism.
Linguistic oddity, that. "Nasty piece of work" used to be the expression, pow itself being neutral and good, bad and indifferent pieces of work being on the cards.
Or maybe they don't like the idea of the Conservatives having a black female PM.
You really are a piece of work, throwing around groundless accusations of racism.
Linguistic oddity, that. "Nasty piece of work" used to be the expression, pow itself being neutral and good, bad and indifferent pieces of work being on the cards.
I think it's American, most of the stupid versions of phrases come from there.
'Tell me about it' is the American version of the British - 'Don't tell me about it', which makes much more sense, but you don't hear any more. 'I could care less' is another American one.
It derives from Shakespeare. "What a piece of work is a man"
On those figures Sunak can easily lend Mordaunt 5 to 10 MPs to knock out Truss in the final round and still top the poll
A question for you, HYUFD. I skim through ConHome comments from time to time. What strikes me is the very high proportion opposed to net zero and, frankly, a bit climate change sceptic. Do you think that is why their surveys are coming out so strongly in favour of Badenoch, as she's the only candidate who's expressed real doubt about the timetable for net zero? Do the views of those who write comments coincide, at least to some degree, to those who respond to their surveys?
Number of Liberal Democrat seats at next UK GE - William Hill (The Lib Dems won 8 seats at the last GE, on the new boundaries, according to Baxter’s sums.)
Over 25 seats 4/7 Over 40 seats 2/1 Over 60 seats 13/2
Under 25 seats is what because otherwise that’s a fool’s bet
We may see a really important UK weather record broken in the next two days - but not (just) the obvious highest temp ever, instead: the record highest minimum
At present that is 23.9 from August 2003, in Brighton
London tomorrow is not expected to go below 24C: absolutely tropical weather
Did all those saying Truss did better watch the same thing as me?! Does no one have anything to say about her praising the Bank of Japan for “keeping inflation low”? What a helmet. All those years round Cabinet and her grasp of economics is frighteningly poor.
Wait.
Who said that the BoJ did a great job keeping inflation low? That's a spectacularly moronic comment.
That would be Liz Truss.
"All we need to do is to copy Japan, and engineer a three decade long economic stagnation that sees debt-to-GDP swell to more than 250% of GDP. This, my friends, this is progress."
Yes, but getting to deflation from the current position would be quite some feat!
Or maybe they don't like the idea of the Conservatives having a black female PM.
You really are a piece of work, throwing around groundless accusations of racism.
Linguistic oddity, that. "Nasty piece of work" used to be the expression, pow itself being neutral and good, bad and indifferent pieces of work being on the cards.
I have been readying for our trip to Scotland and the Caledonian canal and only caught the end of the debate
Sunak seemed to be the best and I just find the rest very run of the mill
While we are talking of hot weather, we lost a local 24 year old female paddle boarder in Conwy on Friday evening, notwithstanding all the efforts of the RNLI and the coastguard, my son and his colleagues rescued a father and son who had fallen out of their kayak and been in the sea for 40 minutes the night previously, and tonight they have been out to rescue a lilo floating out to sea with its occupant
Indeed the coastguard are receiving numerous 999 calls at present, and people need to respect the sea and not put their lives at risk or the volunteer RNLI crews
It's going to be rough for your son and his compatriots, as folks head for the water to beat the heat.
Big problem in Pacific Northwest when we get heatwaves, as the water is generally VERY cold, both saltwater (North Pacific, straits & Puget Sound) and freshwater (glacier-fed rivers).
Darwinism at its finest.
And I don't buy the Don't endanger the RNLI line, it's what they are there for and if they don't like the heat, keeping out of the kitchen is a very real option.
On those figures Sunak can easily lend Mordaunt 5 to 10 MPs to knock out Truss in the final round and still top the poll
A question for you, HYUFD. I skim through ConHome comments from time to time. What strikes me is the very high proportion opposed to net zero and, frankly, a bit climate change sceptic. Do you think that is why their surveys are coming out so strongly in favour of Badenoch, as she's the only candidate who's expressed real doubt about the timetable for net zero? Do the views of those who write comments coincide, at least to some degree, to those who respond to their surveys?
A fair amount I suspect, if Sunak or Mordaunt win I would expect some leakage on the right to Farage's RefUK though they also likely win back some voters from Labour and the LDs
We may see a really important UK weather record broken in the next two days - but not (just) the obvious highest temp ever, instead: the record highest minimum
At present that is 23.9 from August 2003, in Brighton
London tomorrow is not expected to go below 24C: absolutely tropical weather
We may see a really important UK weather record broken in the next two days - but not (just) the obvious highest temp ever, instead: the record highest minimum
At present that is 23.9 from August 2003, in Brighton
London tomorrow is not expected to go below 24C: absolutely tropical weather
Or maybe they don't like the idea of the Conservatives having a black female PM.
You really are a piece of work, throwing around groundless accusations of racism.
Linguistic oddity, that. "Nasty piece of work" used to be the expression, pow itself being neutral and good, bad and indifferent pieces of work being on the cards.
I think it's American, most of the stupid versions of phrases come from there.
'Tell me about it' is the American version of the British - 'Don't tell me about it', which makes much more sense, but you don't hear any more. 'I could care less' is another American one.
It derives from Shakespeare. "What a piece of work is a man"
To stop America-bashing, a Scottish guy I know says 'He's some guy!' about people. It's neither a criticism nor a compliment, so however one replies 'yep, he's a dick' or 'yep, love him', the conversation can continue in that vein. You have to be quite lacking in confidence to make frequent use of such an opinionless opinion.
Number of Liberal Democrat seats at next UK GE - William Hill (The Lib Dems won 8 seats at the last GE, on the new boundaries, according to Baxter’s sums.)
Over 25 seats 4/7 Over 40 seats 2/1 Over 60 seats 13/2
Under 25 seats is what because otherwise that’s a fool’s bet
I don't think any of the likely winners will terrify the opposition.
Within a week of being in the spotlight the inexperienced candidates, Badenoch and Mordaunt, are unravelling faster than an unravelly thing. Truss has become (always was?) something of a joke. All 3 would wilt under a GE campaign unless they tried Boris's tactic of hiding in a fridge till the polls closed.
TomT is pretty good but far too sensible and remainy to stand any sort of chance with the membership. The people, lest we forget, who chose IDS over Ken Clarke and should really never have been allowed anywhere near the final decision ever again.
That leaves Sunak who will do OK but will be eminently beatable after 2 more years of economic gloom and doom.
We may see a really important UK weather record broken in the next two days - but not (just) the obvious highest temp ever, instead: the record highest minimum
At present that is 23.9 from August 2003, in Brighton
London tomorrow is not expected to go below 24C: absolutely tropical weather
Counting out TT and KB who won’t get close. It has to be Mordaunt that wins by a process of elimination. Sunak can’t be trusted going into a recession. And Truss comes across as a less intelligent less electable version of Boris.
Mordaunt is a very imperfect candidate but as HYUFD says, if she appoints good people than the country might be ok. She can be the apple pie and curves for the breakfast tv sofas.
With Hunt as Chancellor (not Sunak!), Kemi as Chief Sec to Treasury, TT Foreign Sec, Wallace defence. And then some mug as Home. I struggle to find a job for Sunak because he doesn’t deserve the big jobs ahead of the others and he’s too savvy to do the Home Office. Might as well keep Javid where he is (was!). Education up for grabs in my cabinet if Sunak wants it.
If PM gets PM, I wouldn't expect KB to get into the cabinet. Her attacks have been very personal.
On those figures Sunak can easily lend Mordaunt 5 to 10 MPs to knock out Truss in the final round and still top the poll
A question for you, HYUFD. I skim through ConHome comments from time to time. What strikes me is the very high proportion opposed to net zero and, frankly, a bit climate change sceptic. Do you think that is why their surveys are coming out so strongly in favour of Badenoch, as she's the only candidate who's expressed real doubt about the timetable for net zero? Do the views of those who write comments coincide, at least to some degree, to those who respond to their surveys?
A fair amount I suspect, if Sunak or Mordaunt win I would expect some leakage on the right to Farage's RefUK though they also likely win back some voters from Labour and the LDs
I don't think any of the likely winners will terrify the opposition.
Within a week of being in the spotlight the inexperienced candidates, Badenoch and Mordaunt, are unravelling faster than an unravelly thing. Truss has become (always was?) something of a joke. All 3 would wilt under a GE campaign unless they tried Boris's tactic of hiding in a fridge till the polls closed.
TomT is pretty good but far too sensible and remainy to stand any sort of chance with the membership. The people, lest we forget, who chose IDS over Ken Clarke and should really never have been allowed anywhere near the final decision ever again.
That leaves Sunak who will do OK but will be eminently beatable after 2 more years of economic gloom and doom.
We may see a really important UK weather record broken in the next two days - but not (just) the obvious highest temp ever, instead: the record highest minimum
At present that is 23.9 from August 2003, in Brighton
London tomorrow is not expected to go below 24C: absolutely tropical weather
Don't know how HYUFD feels, but my sense (certainly talking to folks on Friday in now super marginal Esher and Walton) is that Sunak can beat Truss. His Thatcherite fiscally responsible line will command a (grudging) respect from members.
Not predicting that outcome yet, but the notion that Liz will be the inevitable victor is fanciful.
PS And being on the same side as Dominic Raab is slightly perturbing... but needs must.
It's very close between Rishi and Liz in the members at the moment but, as you and I know, the idea they're all bats is simply a caricature put around by our opponents.
Or maybe they don't like the idea of the Conservatives having a black female PM.
You really are a piece of work, throwing around groundless accusations of racism.
Linguistic oddity, that. "Nasty piece of work" used to be the expression, pow itself being neutral and good, bad and indifferent pieces of work being on the cards.
I think it's American, most of the stupid versions of phrases come from there.
'Tell me about it' is the American version of the British - 'Don't tell me about it', which makes much more sense, but you don't hear any more. 'I could care less' is another American one.
It derives from Shakespeare. "What a piece of work is a man"
It really doesn't
What piece of work is a man, how noble in reason, how infinite in faculties, in form and moving, how express and admirable in action, how like an angel in apprehension, how like a god!
meaning, what an excellent piece of work, not "what a piece of shit".
I don't think any of the likely winners will terrify the opposition.
Within a week of being in the spotlight the inexperienced candidates, Badenoch and Mordaunt, are unravelling faster than an unravelly thing. Truss has become (always was?) something of a joke. All 3 would wilt under a GE campaign unless they tried Boris's tactic of hiding in a fridge till the polls closed.
TomT is pretty good but far too sensible and remainy to stand any sort of chance with the membership. The people, lest we forget, who chose IDS over Ken Clarke and should really never have been allowed anywhere near the final decision ever again.
That leaves Sunak who will do OK but will be eminently beatable after 2 more years of economic gloom and doom.
I suspect Mordaunt would be facing a leadership election by this time next year if she wins.
Or maybe they don't like the idea of the Conservatives having a black female PM.
You really are a piece of work, throwing around groundless accusations of racism.
Linguistic oddity, that. "Nasty piece of work" used to be the expression, pow itself being neutral and good, bad and indifferent pieces of work being on the cards.
Ambassador to USA 7/1 Editor of Evening Standard 10/1 Next host of Countdown 10/1 Mayor of London 16/1 Staffer for Donald Trump 33/1 Speaker 50/1 Classics master at Eton 50/1 Ambassador to the EU 80/1 Commissioner for Standards in Public Life 100/1 Controller of Channel 4 100/1 Interior designer 250/1 500 bar
Betway
I strongly advise anyone against using Betway. They have closed down any way of contacting them, live chat, telephone or email, and regularly lose bets or fail to honour them. Google their customer service record.
I'll risk a prediction - Sunak will get more MPs than people think on the elimination of TT and KB. He'll have a big lead.
I tend to agree. Tommy Tug End may not actually endorse him but that's the natural home of most of hia supporters. Some of Kemi's will go to Truss, but some fake ones will just go home to Sunak.
Or maybe they don't like the idea of the Conservatives having a black female PM.
You really are a piece of work, throwing around groundless accusations of racism.
Linguistic oddity, that. "Nasty piece of work" used to be the expression, pow itself being neutral and good, bad and indifferent pieces of work being on the cards.
I think it's American, most of the stupid versions of phrases come from there.
'Tell me about it' is the American version of the British - 'Don't tell me about it', which makes much more sense, but you don't hear any more. 'I could care less' is another American one.
It derives from Shakespeare. "What a piece of work is a man"
To stop America-bashing, a Scottish guy I know says 'He's some guy!' about people. It's neither a criticism nor a compliment, so however one replies 'yep, he's a dick' or 'yep, love him', the conversation can continue in that vein. You have to be quite lacking in confidence to make frequent use of such an opinionless opinion.
Or very canny to allow others to reveal their own views before sharing your own?
Avoids a LOT of unnecessary unpleasantness. Widely used by savvy salespeople including politicos.
We may see a really important UK weather record broken in the next two days - but not (just) the obvious highest temp ever, instead: the record highest minimum
At present that is 23.9 from August 2003, in Brighton
London tomorrow is not expected to go below 24C: absolutely tropical weather
Hello Leon. Fuck off.
Is this normal on Political Betting?
My God you are such a knob.
I'm not entirely sure what a humble ethnographer of pre-Columbian cultures has done - to deserve such barbed and bitter contumely after three comments
I think Sunak's plan is to get boosted by Kemi (helped by Lannister Gove) and Tugendhat and then ensure he faces off Penny Mordaunt in the member's vote, who he'll expose.
I expect her odds to continually erode but she'll be held up for a time by the prospect of her place in the final.
Or maybe they don't like the idea of the Conservatives having a black female PM.
You really are a piece of work, throwing around groundless accusations of racism.
Linguistic oddity, that. "Nasty piece of work" used to be the expression, pow itself being neutral and good, bad and indifferent pieces of work being on the cards.
Bit like "operator".
I watched Donnie Brasco the other night. Not very good though shows Depp was quite a good actor at one time, but has a long disquisition about how "Forget about it" means I strongly agree or I strongly disagree, depending on context.
Ambassador to USA 7/1 Editor of Evening Standard 10/1 Next host of Countdown 10/1 Mayor of London 16/1 Staffer for Donald Trump 33/1 Speaker 50/1 Classics master at Eton 50/1 Ambassador to the EU 80/1 Commissioner for Standards in Public Life 100/1 Controller of Channel 4 100/1 Interior designer 250/1 500 bar
Betway
I strongly advise anyone against using Betway. They have closed down any way of contacting them, live chat, telephone or email, and regularly lose bets or fail to honour them. Google their customer service record.
I think they're crooks. Don't go there.
Thanks for the heads up, but I know that all bookies are crooks. Victor Chandler immediately closed my account when I made a killing at the 2007 Scottish GE. Hills and PP reduced my max stake to pennies after same election.
Or maybe they don't like the idea of the Conservatives having a black female PM.
You really are a piece of work, throwing around groundless accusations of racism.
Linguistic oddity, that. "Nasty piece of work" used to be the expression, pow itself being neutral and good, bad and indifferent pieces of work being on the cards.
I think it's American, most of the stupid versions of phrases come from there.
'Tell me about it' is the American version of the British - 'Don't tell me about it', which makes much more sense, but you don't hear any more. 'I could care less' is another American one.
It derives from Shakespeare. "What a piece of work is a man"
It really doesn't
What piece of work is a man, how noble in reason, how infinite in faculties, in form and moving, how express and admirable in action, how like an angel in apprehension, how like a god!
meaning, what an excellent piece of work, not "what a piece of shit".
Yes, the meaning is "something remarkable" in the original text and has been co-opted over the centuries to mean something extraordinary for positive or negative reasons, and now mainly meaning something negative. Words (and phrases) do this. "Wow" has recently come to mean something less awesome and more awful in some uses. Other times it can go the other way (see the evolution of "sick" from negative to positive in some uses).
Or maybe they don't like the idea of the Conservatives having a black female PM.
You really are a piece of work, throwing around groundless accusations of racism.
Linguistic oddity, that. "Nasty piece of work" used to be the expression, pow itself being neutral and good, bad and indifferent pieces of work being on the cards.
I think it's American, most of the stupid versions of phrases come from there.
'Tell me about it' is the American version of the British - 'Don't tell me about it', which makes much more sense, but you don't hear any more. 'I could care less' is another American one.
It derives from Shakespeare. "What a piece of work is a man"
To stop America-bashing, a Scottish guy I know says 'He's some guy!' about people. It's neither a criticism nor a compliment, so however one replies 'yep, he's a dick' or 'yep, love him', the conversation can continue in that vein. You have to be quite lacking in confidence to make frequent use of such an opinionless opinion.
Or very canny to allow others to reveal their own views before sharing your own?
Avoids a LOT of unnecessary unpleasantness. Widely used by savvy salespeople including politicos.
Depends who you're speaking to. I'm not going to venture an opinion of my own if someone tries that on me.
Don't know how HYUFD feels, but my sense (certainly talking to folks on Friday in now super marginal Esher and Walton) is that Sunak can beat Truss. His Thatcherite fiscally responsible line will command a (grudging) respect from members.
Not predicting that outcome yet, but the notion that Liz will be the inevitable victor is fanciful.
PS And being on the same side as Dominic Raab is slightly perturbing... but needs must.
It's very close between Rishi and Liz in the members at the moment but, as you and I know, the idea they're all bats is simply a caricature put around by our opponents.
They want to win GEs just as the MPs do.
Yes, but choosing Truss and then seeing her pay off her debts with the likes of Mogg and Dorries returning to their old jobs isn’t going to help much. Both Tories and the wider electorate are expecting a change of style.
I'll risk a prediction - Sunak will get more MPs than people think on the elimination of TT and KB. He'll have a big lead.
I agree, and I expect Sunak to have a big lead over Truss in the final MPs ballot, with Mordaunt fading.
Then it's down to the members, just as it was for us in Labour all those years ago. The sensible centre-leftism of Cooper or Burnham, or the socialist zealotry of our Jezza? Will Tory members go for the zealotry of Truss or stick with Sunak? 50:50 I reckon.
We may see a really important UK weather record broken in the next two days - but not (just) the obvious highest temp ever, instead: the record highest minimum
At present that is 23.9 from August 2003, in Brighton
London tomorrow is not expected to go below 24C: absolutely tropical weather
"Xipe Totec, the Aztec god of spring and regeneration, appears in many Mesoamerican cults. A fertility deity, Xipe Totec vividly conveys the concept of death and rebirth by wearing the flayed skin of a sacrificial victim."
I don't know what he was thinking. Predictable and easy to counter.
That was a jaw droppingly shit question by Sunak.
This man cannot be Prime Minister
Not sure you can dismiss him because of one misfired question
Fact is the Tories have an unpalatable choice of highly flawed candidates, but one will have to do. Their only solace is that the winner is facing an equally uninspiring Labour leader
I reckon Mordaunt or Sunak could beat Starmer, but probably won't due to the overwhelming desire for a change and economic headwinds. Badenoch (too young and callow), Tugendhat (too lightweight and meaningless) and Truss (too stilted and bonkers) would pretty much guarantee defeat, possibly a calamitous defeat
On those figures Sunak can easily lend Mordaunt 5 to 10 MPs to knock out Truss in the final round and still top the poll
Would that not doom him among members though? It'd be a bit obvious.
Cameron lent a few MPs to Davis in 2005 in the last round to knock out Fox, IDS lent a few MPs to Clarke in 2001 to knock out Portillo, Boris likely lent a few to Hunt in 2019 to knock out Gove, did not stop any of them winning the membership vote
That sort of thing probably won't happen this time because it's probably going to be close between the final 3 and so none of them can afford to loan votes to other candidates.
We may see a really important UK weather record broken in the next two days - but not (just) the obvious highest temp ever, instead: the record highest minimum
At present that is 23.9 from August 2003, in Brighton
London tomorrow is not expected to go below 24C: absolutely tropical weather
Hello Leon. Fuck off.
Is this normal on Political Betting?
My God you are such a knob.
I'm not entirely sure what a humble ethnographer of pre-Columbian cultures has done - to deserve such barbed and bitter contumely after three comments
I think Sunak's plan is to get boosted by Kemi (helped by Lannister Gove) and Tugendhat and then ensure he faces off Penny Mordaunt in the member's vote, who he'll expose.
I expect her odds to continually erode but she'll be held up for a time by the prospect of her place in the final.
It would be quite delicious if he spider webs her into the final two because he thinks he's wounded her fatally and then she turns around and whoops him with the members.
We may see a really important UK weather record broken in the next two days - but not (just) the obvious highest temp ever, instead: the record highest minimum
At present that is 23.9 from August 2003, in Brighton
London tomorrow is not expected to go below 24C: absolutely tropical weather
"Xipe Totec, the Aztec god of spring and regeneration, appears in many Mesoamerican cults. A fertility deity, Xipe Totec vividly conveys the concept of death and rebirth by wearing the flayed skin of a sacrificial victim."
Yes rebirth and regeneration. It was obvious who it was before he'd posted anything more than "Test".
Or maybe they don't like the idea of the Conservatives having a black female PM.
You really are a piece of work, throwing around groundless accusations of racism.
Linguistic oddity, that. "Nasty piece of work" used to be the expression, pow itself being neutral and good, bad and indifferent pieces of work being on the cards.
I think it's American, most of the stupid versions of phrases come from there.
'Tell me about it' is the American version of the British - 'Don't tell me about it', which makes much more sense, but you don't hear any more. 'I could care less' is another American one.
It derives from Shakespeare. "What a piece of work is a man"
To stop America-bashing, a Scottish guy I know says 'He's some guy!' about people. It's neither a criticism nor a compliment, so however one replies 'yep, he's a dick' or 'yep, love him', the conversation can continue in that vein. You have to be quite lacking in confidence to make frequent use of such an opinionless opinion.
Or very canny to allow others to reveal their own views before sharing your own?
Avoids a LOT of unnecessary unpleasantness. Widely used by savvy salespeople including politicos.
Depends who you're speaking to. I'm not going to venture an opinion of my own if someone tries that on me.
You could give an equally ambiguous response. Then see how long the ping-pong match goes on!
On those figures Sunak can easily lend Mordaunt 5 to 10 MPs to knock out Truss in the final round and still top the poll
Would that not doom him among members though? It'd be a bit obvious.
Cameron lent a few MPs to Davis in 2005 in the last round to knock out Fox, IDS lent a few MPs to Clarke in 2001 to knock out Portillo, Boris likely lent a few to Hunt in 2019 to knock out Gove, did not stop any of them winning the membership vote
That sort of thing probably won't happen this time because it's probably going to be close between the final 3 and so none of them can afford to loan votes to other candidates.
If Sunak has a clear lead in the penultimate round he will lend votes to Mordaunt, almost guaranteed.
Remember Gavin Williamson is managing Sunak's campaign with MPs and that is the kind of thing he will be plotting to ensure Sunak has knocked out Truss and Badenoch before the membership vote
We may see a really important UK weather record broken in the next two days - but not (just) the obvious highest temp ever, instead: the record highest minimum
At present that is 23.9 from August 2003, in Brighton
London tomorrow is not expected to go below 24C: absolutely tropical weather
Hello Leon. Fuck off.
Is this normal on Political Betting?
My God you are such a knob.
I'm not entirely sure what a humble ethnographer of pre-Columbian cultures has done - to deserve such barbed and bitter contumely after three comments
Presumably it will be revealed that the "ethnography" is a 19-year old Venezuelan émigré girlfriend in London.
On those figures Sunak can easily lend Mordaunt 5 to 10 MPs to knock out Truss in the final round and still top the poll
Would that not doom him among members though? It'd be a bit obvious.
Cameron lent a few MPs to Davis in 2005 in the last round to knock out Fox, IDS lent a few MPs to Clarke in 2001 to knock out Portillo, Boris likely lent a few to Hunt in 2019 to knock out Gove, did not stop any of them winning the membership vote
That sort of thing probably won't happen this time because it's probably going to be close between the final 3 and so none of them can afford to loan votes to other candidates.
Comments
Still, you might be right as the Braverman votes move across.
Sunak 116 (+15)
Mordaunt 100 (+17)
Truss 86 (+22)
Badenoch 54 (+5)
Tom Tugs to bow out Monday morning.
That assessment is entirely down to Penny Mordaunt.
'Tell me about it' is the American version of the British - 'Don't tell me about it', which makes much more sense, but you don't hear any more. 'I could care less' is another American one.
Auntie Tom
A mixed blessing 😉
Might that be purpose for which it's deliberately designed?
The MP electorate in this Tory contest is a hell of a lot different from the previous contests in terms of its composition etc.
(The Lib Dems won 8 seats at the last GE, on the new boundaries, according to Baxter’s sums.)
Over 25 seats 4/7
Over 40 seats 2/1
Over 60 seats 13/2
Mordaunt is a very imperfect candidate but as HYUFD says, if she appoints good people than the country might be ok. She can be the apple pie and curves for the breakfast tv sofas.
With Hunt as Chancellor (not Sunak!), Kemi as Chief Sec to Treasury, TT Foreign Sec, Wallace defence. And then some mug as Home. I struggle to find a job for Sunak because he doesn’t deserve the big jobs ahead of the others and he’s too savvy to do the Home Office. Might as well keep Javid where he is (was!). Education up for grabs in my cabinet if Sunak wants it.
https://twitter.com/RishiSunak/status/1548712009130295297?cxt=HHwWgoC-ub3XkP4qAAAA
Big problem in Pacific Northwest when we get heatwaves, as the water is generally VERY cold, both saltwater (North Pacific, straits & Puget Sound) and freshwater (glacier-fed rivers).
At present that is 23.9 from August 2003, in Brighton
London tomorrow is not expected to go below 24C: absolutely tropical weather
"First Known Use of piece of work
1713, in the meaning defined above"
And I don't buy the Don't endanger the RNLI line, it's what they are there for and if they don't like the heat, keeping out of the kitchen is a very real option.
Hills have form with these one-sided markets.
Within a week of being in the spotlight the inexperienced candidates, Badenoch and Mordaunt, are unravelling faster than an unravelly thing. Truss has become (always was?) something of a joke. All 3 would wilt under a GE campaign unless they tried Boris's tactic of hiding in a fridge till the polls closed.
TomT is pretty good but far too sensible and remainy to stand any sort of chance with the membership. The people, lest we forget, who chose IDS over Ken Clarke and should really never have been allowed anywhere near the final decision ever again.
That leaves Sunak who will do OK but will be eminently beatable after 2 more years of economic gloom and doom.
They want to win GEs just as the MPs do.
What piece of work is a man, how noble in reason,
how infinite in faculties, in form and moving,
how express and admirable in action, how like an angel in apprehension,
how like a god!
meaning, what an excellent piece of work, not "what a piece of shit".
You read it here first folks.
https://twitter.com/adrian_hilton/status/1548754814263128064
I think they're crooks. Don't go there.
Avoids a LOT of unnecessary unpleasantness. Widely used by savvy salespeople including politicos.
I expect her odds to continually erode but she'll be held up for a time by the prospect of her place in the final.
Are these people literally mad?
This man cannot be Prime Minister
Words (and phrases) do this. "Wow" has recently come to mean something less awesome and more awful in some uses. Other times it can go the other way (see the evolution of "sick" from negative to positive in some uses).
Then it's down to the members, just as it was for us in Labour all those years ago. The sensible centre-leftism of Cooper or Burnham, or the socialist zealotry of our Jezza? Will Tory members go for the zealotry of Truss or stick with Sunak? 50:50 I reckon.
"Xipe Totec, the Aztec god of spring and regeneration, appears in many Mesoamerican cults. A fertility deity, Xipe Totec vividly conveys the concept of death and rebirth by wearing the flayed skin of a sacrificial victim."
Fact is the Tories have an unpalatable choice of highly flawed candidates, but one will have to do. Their only solace is that the winner is facing an equally uninspiring Labour leader
I reckon Mordaunt or Sunak could beat Starmer, but probably won't due to the overwhelming desire for a change and economic headwinds. Badenoch (too young and callow), Tugendhat (too lightweight and meaningless) and Truss (too stilted and bonkers) would pretty much guarantee defeat, possibly a calamitous defeat
But one of them will.
You decide.
Er. No you don't.
It should be enough to keep her ahead of Badenoch.
Remember Gavin Williamson is managing Sunak's campaign with MPs and that is the kind of thing he will be plotting to ensure Sunak has knocked out Truss and Badenoch before the membership vote