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Rule breaking Rishi wins the debate as Kemi puts the bad in Badenoch – politicalbetting.com

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  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,607
    Are we about see Badenoch installed as the leader-in-waiting who will take over after Sunak/Truss loses in 2024?

    Looks that way from those membership voting numbers.

  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    dixiedean said:

    Alistair said:

    kle4 said:

    Sunak comes out of this exchange with Truss really badly.

    https://twitter.com/adrian_hilton/status/1548754814263128064

    I don't know what he was thinking. Predictable and easy to counter.
    That was a jaw droppingly shit question by Sunak.

    This man cannot be Prime Minister
    None of them can.
    But one of them will.
    You decide.
    Er. No you don't.
    This Labour triumphalism would have been well in order in 1995

    But this collection of hebephrenic gimps don't have to throw up someone who can outrun a bear, they only have to throw up someone who can outrun SKS. Not difficult.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,760
    edited July 2022
    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    MrEd said:

    I always said Badenoch was overrated and way too inexperienced.

    No surprise Labour are using her responses in tonight's debates in their attack ads.

    https://twitter.com/UKLabour/status/1548751253068562433

    Or maybe they don't like the idea of the Conservatives having a black female PM.

    You really are a piece of work, throwing around groundless accusations of racism.
    Linguistic oddity, that. "Nasty piece of work" used to be the expression, pow itself being neutral and good, bad and indifferent pieces of work being on the cards.
    https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/piece of work

    "First Known Use of piece of work
    1713, in the meaning defined above"

    Would be fab if they quoted or linked to the passage they claim to be referring to.
    There is of course John Amos to William Sadler in Die Hard 2:

    "Colonel, if I may say so, you are some piece of work!"

    https://getyarn.io/yarn-clip/c7bbee26-5945-412c-8aee-6283daa1d1e3
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,079
    Xipe said:

    Alistair said:

    kle4 said:

    Sunak comes out of this exchange with Truss really badly.

    https://twitter.com/adrian_hilton/status/1548754814263128064

    I don't know what he was thinking. Predictable and easy to counter.
    That was a jaw droppingly shit question by Sunak.

    This man cannot be Prime Minister
    Not sure you can dismiss him because of one misfired question

    Fact is the Tories have an unpalatable choice of highly flawed candidates, but one will have to do. Their only solace is that the winner is facing an equally uninspiring Labour leader

    I reckon Mordaunt or Sunak could beat Starmer, but probably won't due to the overwhelming desire for a change and economic headwinds. Badenoch (too young and callow), Tugendhat (too lightweight and meaningless) and Truss (too stilted and bonkers) would pretty much guarantee defeat, possibly a calamitous defeat
    Where's your full stops?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,384
    edited July 2022
    IshmaelZ said:

    dixiedean said:

    Alistair said:

    kle4 said:

    Sunak comes out of this exchange with Truss really badly.

    https://twitter.com/adrian_hilton/status/1548754814263128064

    I don't know what he was thinking. Predictable and easy to counter.
    That was a jaw droppingly shit question by Sunak.

    This man cannot be Prime Minister
    None of them can.
    But one of them will.
    You decide.
    Er. No you don't.
    This Labour triumphalism would have been well in order in 1995

    But this collection of hebephrenic gimps don't have to throw up someone who can outrun a bear, they only have to throw up someone who can outrun SKS. Not difficult.
    That's hardly triumphalism.
    None of them are particularly good. Nor is SKS.
    It's a sad time for the country tbh.
    Though any one of them v Starmer is a small step in the right direction from Johnson v Corbyn.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,273
    kinabalu said:

    Xipe said:

    Alistair said:

    kle4 said:

    Sunak comes out of this exchange with Truss really badly.

    https://twitter.com/adrian_hilton/status/1548754814263128064

    I don't know what he was thinking. Predictable and easy to counter.
    That was a jaw droppingly shit question by Sunak.

    This man cannot be Prime Minister
    Not sure you can dismiss him because of one misfired question

    Fact is the Tories have an unpalatable choice of highly flawed candidates, but one will have to do. Their only solace is that the winner is facing an equally uninspiring Labour leader

    I reckon Mordaunt or Sunak could beat Starmer, but probably won't due to the overwhelming desire for a change and economic headwinds. Badenoch (too young and callow), Tugendhat (too lightweight and meaningless) and Truss (too stilted and bonkers) would pretty much guarantee defeat, possibly a calamitous defeat
    Where's your full stops?
    Sacrificed to a vengeful God.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,664
    edited July 2022

    Are we about see Badenoch installed as the leader-in-waiting who will take over after Sunak/Truss loses in 2024?

    Looks that way from those membership voting numbers.

    Assuming Sunak or Truss win the leadership and then lose in 2024, though Sunak has a chance of a narrow win unlike Truss I think, then Badenoch or Patel will likely be the favourites to be Leader of the Opposition depending on which of them the ERG back
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    EPG said:

    Xipe said:

    Xipe said:

    Farooq said:

    Xipe said:

    We may see a really important UK weather record broken in the next two days - but not (just) the obvious highest temp ever, instead: the record highest minimum

    At present that is 23.9 from August 2003, in Brighton

    London tomorrow is not expected to go below 24C: absolutely tropical weather



    Hello Leon. Fuck off.
    Is this normal on Political Betting?
    My God you are such a knob.
    I'm not entirely sure what a humble ethnographer of pre-Columbian cultures has done - to deserve such barbed and bitter contumely after three comments
    Presumably it will be revealed that the "ethnography" is a 19-year old Venezuelan émigré girlfriend in London.
    19 you say?
    Positively geriatric for Sean.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,854
    edited July 2022
    I haven't managed to read the thread but I watched. All much better than last time.

    Sunack was by a distance the most credible and composed.

    Mordaunt has a bit of the Emily Thornberry about her and Truss had a brief moment at the end when she answered Sunak's question.

    The other two have no hope.

    So Sunak first Mordaunt second.

    Mordaunt retires after being a long way behind
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    edited July 2022
    I have never understood why it matters anything to anybody when one anonymous poster returns as another anonymous poster. Who cares?
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,772
    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Just to stick my neck out on prediction again.

    Tory contest prediction 17 July

    So, second round was:

    Sunak - 101
    Mordaunt - 83
    Truss - 64
    Badenoch - 49
    Tugendhat - 32
    Braverman - 27

    Prediction for the next round:

    Sunak - 116 (+13)
    Mordaunt - 88 (+5)
    Truss - 84 (+20)
    Badenoch - 45 (-4)
    Tugendhat - 25 (-7)

    Penny loses the big mo but just retains her place. Badenoch and Tom run out of steam.

    Tom then endorses Mordaunt, and she slightly increases her lead over Truss.

    Badenoch's support then splits mostly for Truss and some for Sunak, putting Sunak and Truss in the final two by a gnat's whisker.

    Prediction for the fourth round:

    Sunak - 119 (+6)
    Mordaunt - 104 (+16)
    Truss - 92 (+8)
    Badenoch - 40 (-5)

    Prediction for the final round:

    Sunak - 133 (+14)
    Mordaunt - 110 (+6)
    Truss - 112 (+20)

    On those figures Sunak can easily lend Mordaunt 5 to 10 MPs to knock out Truss in the final round and still top the poll
    Would that not doom him among members though? It'd be a bit obvious.
    Cameron lent a few MPs to Davis in 2005 in the last round to knock out Fox, IDS lent a few MPs to Clarke in 2001 to knock out Portillo, Boris likely lent a few to Hunt in 2019 to knock out Gove, did not stop any of them winning the membership vote
    That sort of thing probably won't happen this time because it's probably going to be close between the final 3 and so none of them can afford to loan votes to other candidates.
    If Sunak has a clear lead in the penultimate round he will lend votes to Mordaunt, almost guaranteed.

    Remember Gavin Williamson is managing Sunak's campaign with MPs and that is the kind of thing he will be plotting to ensure Sunak has knocked out Truss and Badenoch before the membership vote
    Do you approve of fixing elections?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,278
    Farooq said:

    MrEd said:

    Sunak comes out of this exchange with Truss really badly.

    https://twitter.com/adrian_hilton/status/1548754814263128064

    Truss was much better tonight. That and her Yorkshire straight talking and lack of polish stuff.

    It should be enough to keep her ahead of Badenoch.
    Agreed on that. FYI, Betfair moving around a bit. Odds now

    Sunak 2.46
    Mordaunt 3.35
    Truss 4.6
    Badenoch 11
    I don't get why Mordaunt is so high still. She's Gordon Brown. Mumbling her surly answers, can't think on her feet, digs idiotic holes for herself. She's not up to this. Surely everyone can see this?
    I can.

    Apparently she can do empathy.
  • XipeXipe Posts: 47

    kinabalu said:

    Xipe said:

    Alistair said:

    kle4 said:

    Sunak comes out of this exchange with Truss really badly.

    https://twitter.com/adrian_hilton/status/1548754814263128064

    I don't know what he was thinking. Predictable and easy to counter.
    That was a jaw droppingly shit question by Sunak.

    This man cannot be Prime Minister
    Not sure you can dismiss him because of one misfired question

    Fact is the Tories have an unpalatable choice of highly flawed candidates, but one will have to do. Their only solace is that the winner is facing an equally uninspiring Labour leader

    I reckon Mordaunt or Sunak could beat Starmer, but probably won't due to the overwhelming desire for a change and economic headwinds. Badenoch (too young and callow), Tugendhat (too lightweight and meaningless) and Truss (too stilted and bonkers) would pretty much guarantee defeat, possibly a calamitous defeat
    Where's your full stops?
    Sacrificed to a vengeful God.
    Indeed. My heroes, the Aztec nobility, eschewed otiose punctuation and instead ritually pierced the tender parts of their body, with cactus thorns, obsidian flakes, and stingray spines, thereby propitiating the angry deities by the endless letting of human blood. The rites confounded early Spanish observers. From a 1556 manuscript:


    "At times they sacrificed their own blood, cutting all around the ears in strips which they let hang as a sign. At other times they perforated their cheeks or the lower lip; again they made cuts in parts of the body, or pierced the tongue crossways and passed stalks through, causing extreme pain; again they hewed at the superfluous part of the penis, leaving the flesh in the form of two floppy ears. It was this custom which misled [engaño] the historian-general of the Indies to say that they practised circumcision"

    Great people. No full stops
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,117
    edited July 2022

    Farooq said:

    MrEd said:

    Sunak comes out of this exchange with Truss really badly.

    https://twitter.com/adrian_hilton/status/1548754814263128064

    Truss was much better tonight. That and her Yorkshire straight talking and lack of polish stuff.

    It should be enough to keep her ahead of Badenoch.
    Agreed on that. FYI, Betfair moving around a bit. Odds now

    Sunak 2.46
    Mordaunt 3.35
    Truss 4.6
    Badenoch 11
    I don't get why Mordaunt is so high still. She's Gordon Brown. Mumbling her surly answers, can't think on her feet, digs idiotic holes for herself. She's not up to this. Surely everyone can see this?
    I can.

    Apparently she can do empathy.
    Brown could never do this in public, although by all accounts a generous character. The cultural pressures on a man not to do so are also much heavier.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,845

    I have never understood why it matters anything to anybody when one anonymous poster returns as another anonymous poster. Who cares?

    So what’s the point of a ban?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,278

    Are we about see Badenoch installed as the leader-in-waiting who will take over after Sunak/Truss loses in 2024?

    Looks that way from those membership voting numbers.

    Yep
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Farooq said:

    MrEd said:

    Sunak comes out of this exchange with Truss really badly.

    https://twitter.com/adrian_hilton/status/1548754814263128064

    Truss was much better tonight. That and her Yorkshire straight talking and lack of polish stuff.

    It should be enough to keep her ahead of Badenoch.
    Agreed on that. FYI, Betfair moving around a bit. Odds now

    Sunak 2.46
    Mordaunt 3.35
    Truss 4.6
    Badenoch 11
    I don't get why Mordaunt is so high still. She's Gordon Brown. Mumbling her surly answers, can't think on her feet, digs idiotic holes for herself. She's not up to this. Surely everyone can see this?
    I agree with you there, I think it's because she is seen as a a bit of a fresh face and vaguely human, as least compared with Liz T. However, she's a weak candidate. If you are going to do style over substance a la David Cameron, you at least have to have one attribute.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    Tropical nights (where minimum temperature never drops below 20 degrees) are common in Sweden. We usually have at least a fortnight of them, sometimes nearly 2 months.

    You get used to them, and although unpleasant they can be mitigated. We have a heat pump, which although not an A/C is still an effective ventilation system, especially when set to cooling mode.

    It helps of course that we have so many opportunities to bathe in lakes, rivers or sea. A refreshing dip first thing in the morning or late in the evening does wonders for body and soul.

    Similar to summer weather in much of US upper Midewest.

    BTW, thanks to Sweden for role in restoring Jim Thorpe's rightful status, as sole gold medal winner in the decathlon and pentathlon in 1912 Olympic games

    NYT story asked Swedish Olympic Committee for it's response:

    S.O.C would like to quote the Swedish King Gustav V, who said to Jim Thorpe at the medal ceremony, "Sir, you are the greatest athlete in the world."

    My dad would tell how, when Jim Thorpe was in his 30s, and playing in the early days of American professional football, at half-time during games, he'd stand on the 50-yard line and kick a field goal over one set of goal posts. Then he'd turn 180-degrees, and kick a field goal over the OTHER goal post.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Thorpe
  • Just seen Rish!’s ‘zinger’

    What a shart in a suit he is
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,639
    Always good to see new posters here.

    Don't get too hot tomorrow goodnight! 👍
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,117
    edited July 2022
    HYUFD said:

    Are we about see Badenoch installed as the leader-in-waiting who will take over after Sunak/Truss loses in 2024?

    Looks that way from those membership voting numbers.

    Assuming Sunak or Truss win the leadership and then lose in 2024, though Sunak has a chance of a narrow win unlike Truss I think, then Badenoch or Patel will likely be the favourites to be Leader of the Opposition depending on which of them the ERG back
    I agree with the poster below who suggested if Sunak lost Mordaunt would probably still be the main threat. I think that's quite plausible.
  • XipeXipe Posts: 47
    Tho I do wonder what constitute the "superfluous parts of the penis"

    The whole organ feels quite important to me. Fluous
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,479
    Welcome to Xipe.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,664
    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Just to stick my neck out on prediction again.

    Tory contest prediction 17 July

    So, second round was:

    Sunak - 101
    Mordaunt - 83
    Truss - 64
    Badenoch - 49
    Tugendhat - 32
    Braverman - 27

    Prediction for the next round:

    Sunak - 116 (+13)
    Mordaunt - 88 (+5)
    Truss - 84 (+20)
    Badenoch - 45 (-4)
    Tugendhat - 25 (-7)

    Penny loses the big mo but just retains her place. Badenoch and Tom run out of steam.

    Tom then endorses Mordaunt, and she slightly increases her lead over Truss.

    Badenoch's support then splits mostly for Truss and some for Sunak, putting Sunak and Truss in the final two by a gnat's whisker.

    Prediction for the fourth round:

    Sunak - 119 (+6)
    Mordaunt - 104 (+16)
    Truss - 92 (+8)
    Badenoch - 40 (-5)

    Prediction for the final round:

    Sunak - 133 (+14)
    Mordaunt - 110 (+6)
    Truss - 112 (+20)

    On those figures Sunak can easily lend Mordaunt 5 to 10 MPs to knock out Truss in the final round and still top the poll
    Would that not doom him among members though? It'd be a bit obvious.
    Cameron lent a few MPs to Davis in 2005 in the last round to knock out Fox, IDS lent a few MPs to Clarke in 2001 to knock out Portillo, Boris likely lent a few to Hunt in 2019 to knock out Gove, did not stop any of them winning the membership vote
    That sort of thing probably won't happen this time because it's probably going to be close between the final 3 and so none of them can afford to loan votes to other candidates.
    If Sunak has a clear lead in the penultimate round he will lend votes to Mordaunt, almost guaranteed.

    Remember Gavin Williamson is managing Sunak's campaign with MPs and that is the kind of thing he will be plotting to ensure Sunak has knocked out Truss and Badenoch before the membership vote
    Do you approve of fixing elections?
    MPs select the candidates they want before the Members get a say and if some Sunak supporting MPs vote tactically to knock out Truss they are entitled to do so. It is up to Truss to get enough MPs to ensure her place in the last two
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,278
    Trouble is Mordaunt's odds aren't far off where they should be now if she does make it into the member's run off.

    She might drift to 4s but about a 65% chance is what I'd rate Sunak up against her.

    So her odds will probably hover around there for some time.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    edited July 2022
    Roger said:

    I haven't managed to read the thread but I watched. All much better than last time.

    Sunack was by a distance the most credible and composed.

    Mordaunt has a bit of the Emily Thornberry about her and Truss had a brief moment at the end when she answered Sunak's question.

    The other two have no hope.

    So Sunak first Mordaunt second.

    Mordaunt retires after being a long way behind

    Ah yes, that is who she reminds me of! Her style is quite similar to Thornberry.

    Although she is my favourite (and I agree she could be okay if she hires a decent team around her) I simply cannot see her surviving a head-to-head campaign with Rishi that will go on all summer.

    So, I’m rather taken with @HYUFD’s analysis that Team Sunak will try to help Penny into the final, backing themselves to beat her easily over a prolonged campaign.
  • XipeXipe Posts: 47
    Andy_JS said:

    Welcome to Xipe.

    Tlazohcamati Cenca!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,664

    HYUFD said:

    Are we about see Badenoch installed as the leader-in-waiting who will take over after Sunak/Truss loses in 2024?

    Looks that way from those membership voting numbers.

    Assuming Sunak or Truss win the leadership and then lose in 2024, though Sunak has a chance of a narrow win unlike Truss I think, then Badenoch or Patel will likely be the favourites to be Leader of the Opposition depending on which of them the ERG back
    I agree with the poster below who suggested if Sunak lost Mordaunt would probably still be the main threat. I think that's plausible.
    Mordaunt or Tugenhadt might be the candidate Patel or Badenoch beat in the membership vote, she would be unlikely to end up Leader of the Opposition
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    Farooq said:

    Roger said:

    I haven't managed to read the thread but I watched. All much better than last time.

    Sunack was by a distance the most credible and composed.

    Mordaunt has a bit of the Emily Thornberry about her and Truss had a brief moment at the end when she answered Sunak's question.

    The other two have no hope.

    So Sunak first Mordaunt second.

    Mordaunt retires after being a long way behind

    Leadsom clause. They can't just withdraw, I understand.
    What great penalty will become them if they do?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    IanB2 said:

    I have never understood why it matters anything to anybody when one anonymous poster returns as another anonymous poster. Who cares?

    So what’s the point of a ban?
    I didn’t actually know he’d been banned. What for?
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,117
    edited July 2022
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Are we about see Badenoch installed as the leader-in-waiting who will take over after Sunak/Truss loses in 2024?

    Looks that way from those membership voting numbers.

    Assuming Sunak or Truss win the leadership and then lose in 2024, though Sunak has a chance of a narrow win unlike Truss I think, then Badenoch or Patel will likely be the favourites to be Leader of the Opposition depending on which of them the ERG back
    I agree with the poster below who suggested if Sunak lost Mordaunt would probably still be the main threat. I think that's plausible.
    Mordaunt or Tugenhadt might be the candidate Patel or Badenoch beat in the membership vote, she would be unlikely to end up Leader of the Opposition
    Patel has some of Truss's problems, I think, and Badenoch needs years' more of experience.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,297

    Roger said:

    I haven't managed to read the thread but I watched. All much better than last time.

    Sunack was by a distance the most credible and composed.

    Mordaunt has a bit of the Emily Thornberry about her and Truss had a brief moment at the end when she answered Sunak's question.

    The other two have no hope.

    So Sunak first Mordaunt second.

    Mordaunt retires after being a long way behind

    Ah yes, that is who she reminds me of! Her style is quite similar to Thornberry.

    Although she is my favourite (and I agree she could be okay if she hires a decent team around her) I simply cannot see her surviving a head-to-head campaign with Rishi that will go on all summer.

    So, I’m rather taken with @HYUFD’s analysis that Team Sunak will try to help Penny into the final, backing themselves to beat her easily over a prolonged campaign.
    A really stupid idea. As stupid as those Labour MPs nominating Corbyn.

    Penny is the candidate most like Boris.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Xipe said:

    kinabalu said:

    Xipe said:

    Alistair said:

    kle4 said:

    Sunak comes out of this exchange with Truss really badly.

    https://twitter.com/adrian_hilton/status/1548754814263128064

    I don't know what he was thinking. Predictable and easy to counter.
    That was a jaw droppingly shit question by Sunak.

    This man cannot be Prime Minister
    Not sure you can dismiss him because of one misfired question

    Fact is the Tories have an unpalatable choice of highly flawed candidates, but one will have to do. Their only solace is that the winner is facing an equally uninspiring Labour leader

    I reckon Mordaunt or Sunak could beat Starmer, but probably won't due to the overwhelming desire for a change and economic headwinds. Badenoch (too young and callow), Tugendhat (too lightweight and meaningless) and Truss (too stilted and bonkers) would pretty much guarantee defeat, possibly a calamitous defeat
    Where's your full stops?
    Sacrificed to a vengeful God.
    Indeed. My heroes, the Aztec nobility, eschewed otiose punctuation and instead ritually pierced the tender parts of their body, with cactus thorns, obsidian flakes, and stingray spines, thereby propitiating the angry deities by the endless letting of human blood. The rites confounded early Spanish observers. From a 1556 manuscript:


    "At times they sacrificed their own blood, cutting all around the ears in strips which they let hang as a sign. At other times they perforated their cheeks or the lower lip; again they made cuts in parts of the body, or pierced the tongue crossways and passed stalks through, causing extreme pain; again they hewed at the superfluous part of the penis, leaving the flesh in the form of two floppy ears. It was this custom which misled [engaño] the historian-general of the Indies to say that they practised circumcision"

    Great people. No full stops
    Is "Xipe" pronounced "Zippy"? Sure hope so!
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Tropical nights (where minimum temperature never drops below 20 degrees) are common in Sweden. We usually have at least a fortnight of them, sometimes nearly 2 months.

    You get used to them, and although unpleasant they can be mitigated. We have a heat pump, which although not an A/C is still an effective ventilation system, especially when set to cooling mode.

    It helps of course that we have so many opportunities to bathe in lakes, rivers or sea. A refreshing dip first thing in the morning or late in the evening does wonders for body and soul.


    Portrait of an Unknown Gentlemen taking the waters 2 degrees within the Arctic Circle
  • XipeXipe Posts: 47

    Xipe said:

    kinabalu said:

    Xipe said:

    Alistair said:

    kle4 said:

    Sunak comes out of this exchange with Truss really badly.

    https://twitter.com/adrian_hilton/status/1548754814263128064

    I don't know what he was thinking. Predictable and easy to counter.
    That was a jaw droppingly shit question by Sunak.

    This man cannot be Prime Minister
    Not sure you can dismiss him because of one misfired question

    Fact is the Tories have an unpalatable choice of highly flawed candidates, but one will have to do. Their only solace is that the winner is facing an equally uninspiring Labour leader

    I reckon Mordaunt or Sunak could beat Starmer, but probably won't due to the overwhelming desire for a change and economic headwinds. Badenoch (too young and callow), Tugendhat (too lightweight and meaningless) and Truss (too stilted and bonkers) would pretty much guarantee defeat, possibly a calamitous defeat
    Where's your full stops?
    Sacrificed to a vengeful God.
    Indeed. My heroes, the Aztec nobility, eschewed otiose punctuation and instead ritually pierced the tender parts of their body, with cactus thorns, obsidian flakes, and stingray spines, thereby propitiating the angry deities by the endless letting of human blood. The rites confounded early Spanish observers. From a 1556 manuscript:


    "At times they sacrificed their own blood, cutting all around the ears in strips which they let hang as a sign. At other times they perforated their cheeks or the lower lip; again they made cuts in parts of the body, or pierced the tongue crossways and passed stalks through, causing extreme pain; again they hewed at the superfluous part of the penis, leaving the flesh in the form of two floppy ears. It was this custom which misled [engaño] the historian-general of the Indies to say that they practised circumcision"

    Great people. No full stops
    Is "Xipe" pronounced "Zippy"? Sure hope so!
    Pretty much. Zhee-pay is probably the closest to the original Nahuatl. So, yeah, Zippy if you're in a good mood
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,637

    IanB2 said:

    I have never understood why it matters anything to anybody when one anonymous poster returns as another anonymous poster. Who cares?

    So what’s the point of a ban?
    I didn’t actually know he’d been banned. What for?
    Drunken ranting abuse of anyone not sufficiently British in his eyes. It was all pretty obnoxious and unnecessary tbh. Worthy of at least a short term ban imho.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,760
    Xipe said:

    Tho I do wonder what constitute the "superfluous parts of the penis"

    The whole organ feels quite important to me. Fluous

    Didn't Leon spell "though" as "tho"?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,664
    edited July 2022

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Are we about see Badenoch installed as the leader-in-waiting who will take over after Sunak/Truss loses in 2024?

    Looks that way from those membership voting numbers.

    Assuming Sunak or Truss win the leadership and then lose in 2024, though Sunak has a chance of a narrow win unlike Truss I think, then Badenoch or Patel will likely be the favourites to be Leader of the Opposition depending on which of them the ERG back
    I agree with the poster below who suggested if Sunak lost Mordaunt would probably still be the main threat. I think that's plausible.
    Mordaunt or Tugenhadt might be the candidate Patel or Badenoch beat in the membership vote, she would be unlikely to end up Leader of the Opposition
    Patel has some of Truss's problems, I think, and Badenoch needs years' more of experience.
    If say Sunak wins this leadership election, which is probably now the likeliest outcome and loses the next general election then the ERG would ensure they get their candidate in the final two next time, as they may not this time if Truss is knocked out in the final MP round.

    The membership would then likely vote for that candidate to be Leader of the Opposition and the candidates the ERG would probably back in Opposition would be Badenoch or Priti Patel, maybe Steve Baker but if the Tories lose the general election he would likely have lost his marginal seat. Dorries or Rees Mogg long shots
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,228
    Xipe said:

    kinabalu said:

    Xipe said:

    Alistair said:

    kle4 said:

    Sunak comes out of this exchange with Truss really badly.

    https://twitter.com/adrian_hilton/status/1548754814263128064

    I don't know what he was thinking. Predictable and easy to counter.
    That was a jaw droppingly shit question by Sunak.

    This man cannot be Prime Minister
    Not sure you can dismiss him because of one misfired question

    Fact is the Tories have an unpalatable choice of highly flawed candidates, but one will have to do. Their only solace is that the winner is facing an equally uninspiring Labour leader

    I reckon Mordaunt or Sunak could beat Starmer, but probably won't due to the overwhelming desire for a change and economic headwinds. Badenoch (too young and callow), Tugendhat (too lightweight and meaningless) and Truss (too stilted and bonkers) would pretty much guarantee defeat, possibly a calamitous defeat
    Where's your full stops?
    Sacrificed to a vengeful God.
    Indeed. My heroes, the Aztec nobility, eschewed otiose punctuation and instead ritually pierced the tender parts of their body, with cactus thorns, obsidian flakes, and stingray spines, thereby propitiating the angry deities by the endless letting of human blood. The rites confounded early Spanish observers. From a 1556 manuscript:


    "At times they sacrificed their own blood, cutting all around the ears in strips which they let hang as a sign. At other times they perforated their cheeks or the lower lip; again they made cuts in parts of the body, or pierced the tongue crossways and passed stalks through, causing extreme pain; again they hewed at the superfluous part of the penis, leaving the flesh in the form of two floppy ears. It was this custom which misled [engaño] the historian-general of the Indies to say that they practised circumcision"

    Great people. No full stops
    An average day at Camden Market.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,117
    edited July 2022
    Cyclefree said:

    Roger said:

    I haven't managed to read the thread but I watched. All much better than last time.

    Sunack was by a distance the most credible and composed.

    Mordaunt has a bit of the Emily Thornberry about her and Truss had a brief moment at the end when she answered Sunak's question.

    The other two have no hope.

    So Sunak first Mordaunt second.

    Mordaunt retires after being a long way behind

    Ah yes, that is who she reminds me of! Her style is quite similar to Thornberry.

    Although she is my favourite (and I agree she could be okay if she hires a decent team around her) I simply cannot see her surviving a head-to-head campaign with Rishi that will go on all summer.

    So, I’m rather taken with @HYUFD’s analysis that Team Sunak will try to help Penny into the final, backing themselves to beat her easily over a prolonged campaign.
    A really stupid idea. As stupid as those Labour MPs nominating Corbyn.

    Penny is the candidate most like Boris.
    An uncharacteristically off-target post, I would say. I think Mordaunt is actually the candidate least like Boris, because he is a narcissist, and she seems to be able to genuinely empathise better than her peers.

    Not to say she's the perfect or finished candidate so far, ofcourse. She needs to flesh out what she wants to do with this communicative power, and ditch some of the Brexit wishful thinking that does indeed remind more of Boris, but on that I'm not really her target audience.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,798

    Xipe said:

    kinabalu said:

    Xipe said:

    Alistair said:

    kle4 said:

    Sunak comes out of this exchange with Truss really badly.

    https://twitter.com/adrian_hilton/status/1548754814263128064

    I don't know what he was thinking. Predictable and easy to counter.
    That was a jaw droppingly shit question by Sunak.

    This man cannot be Prime Minister
    Not sure you can dismiss him because of one misfired question

    Fact is the Tories have an unpalatable choice of highly flawed candidates, but one will have to do. Their only solace is that the winner is facing an equally uninspiring Labour leader

    I reckon Mordaunt or Sunak could beat Starmer, but probably won't due to the overwhelming desire for a change and economic headwinds. Badenoch (too young and callow), Tugendhat (too lightweight and meaningless) and Truss (too stilted and bonkers) would pretty much guarantee defeat, possibly a calamitous defeat
    Where's your full stops?
    Sacrificed to a vengeful God.
    Indeed. My heroes, the Aztec nobility, eschewed otiose punctuation and instead ritually pierced the tender parts of their body, with cactus thorns, obsidian flakes, and stingray spines, thereby propitiating the angry deities by the endless letting of human blood. The rites confounded early Spanish observers. From a 1556 manuscript:


    "At times they sacrificed their own blood, cutting all around the ears in strips which they let hang as a sign. At other times they perforated their cheeks or the lower lip; again they made cuts in parts of the body, or pierced the tongue crossways and passed stalks through, causing extreme pain; again they hewed at the superfluous part of the penis, leaving the flesh in the form of two floppy ears. It was this custom which misled [engaño] the historian-general of the Indies to say that they practised circumcision"

    Great people. No full stops
    Is "Xipe" pronounced "Zippy"? Sure hope so!
    Not sure Xipe is woke enough to be comfortable to hang out with the trans George.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,479
    edited July 2022

    IanB2 said:

    I have never understood why it matters anything to anybody when one anonymous poster returns as another anonymous poster. Who cares?

    So what’s the point of a ban?
    I didn’t actually know he’d been banned. What for?
    Telling a poster originally from New Zealand that he shouldn't be posting on PB because British politics were none of his business.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,228
    Andy_JS said:

    IanB2 said:

    I have never understood why it matters anything to anybody when one anonymous poster returns as another anonymous poster. Who cares?

    So what’s the point of a ban?
    I didn’t actually know he’d been banned. What for?
    Telling a poster originally from New Zealand that he shouldn't be posting on PB because British politics were none of his business.
    Or telling GW he shouldn't be commenting from the USA, which wasn't calculated to endear him to senior management.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Farooq said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Tropical nights (where minimum temperature never drops below 20 degrees) are common in Sweden. We usually have at least a fortnight of them, sometimes nearly 2 months.

    You get used to them, and although unpleasant they can be mitigated. We have a heat pump, which although not an A/C is still an effective ventilation system, especially when set to cooling mode.

    It helps of course that we have so many opportunities to bathe in lakes, rivers or sea. A refreshing dip first thing in the morning or late in the evening does wonders for body and soul.


    Portrait of an Unknown Gentlemen taking the waters 2 degrees within the Arctic Circle
    I hate to ask this, but isn't that a little too far south? N68 33 is Arctic
    66°33′49.1″ at present, so well within
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,479
    Sky News paper reviewer says some of Kemi Badenoch's policies could be viewed as far right. Someone from Novara Media.
  • XipeXipe Posts: 47
    edited July 2022
    Andy_JS said:

    Sky News paper reviewer says some of Kemi Badenoch's policies could be viewed as far right. Someone from Novara Media.

    Novara Media are Marxist Corbynites. Full fat luxury communism and all that. Set your dial to "ignore"
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,607
    Jeez. It will be 30 degrees at this time tomorrow in the late evening where I live. Bloody hell.


  • Is the real Sean anything like any of the characters he has played?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,745
    edited July 2022
    Xipe said:

    We may see a really important UK weather record broken in the next two days - but not (just) the obvious highest temp ever, instead: the record highest minimum

    At present that is 23.9 from August 2003, in Brighton

    London tomorrow is not expected to go below 24C: absolutely tropical weather

    Welcome to the world of the night shift worker who spends half the year sleeping in what most people would call ludicrously high temperatures.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,637

    Jeez. It will be 30 degrees at this time tomorrow in the late evening where I live. Bloody hell.

    Chill, it'll be low 20s by the weekend.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    Cookie said:

    A few months back I posted some egregious drivel misquoting Boethius about the English year being a wheel, and the bleakness of January being an acceptable price to pay for the glories of midsummer.
    Well January was worth it; this midsummer is being particularly glorious. Maybe it's that the last two midsummers were spent under soul-sapping restrictions, but I cannot recall a midsummer which felt so full of light. It is just now getting dark in Manchester and I am sat in the warmth of the garden listening to my neighbours telly at far too great a volume, but 90 minutes ago I was up Wild Bank Hill with middle daughter, watching the sun go down, which it refused to do, 9 o'clock still being too early for it. Shorts and t-shirts weather; a balmy evening, a warm wind. Beautiful, bucolic Greater Manchester.




    Boethius’s Wheel in Manchester? You must be the reincarnation of Tony Wilson.

  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Cookie said:

    A few months back I posted some egregious drivel misquoting Boethius about the English year being a wheel, and the bleakness of January being an acceptable price to pay for the glories of midsummer.
    Well January was worth it; this midsummer is being particularly glorious. Maybe it's that the last two midsummers were spent under soul-sapping restrictions, but I cannot recall a midsummer which felt so full of light. It is just now getting dark in Manchester and I am sat in the warmth of the garden listening to my neighbours telly at far too great a volume, but 90 minutes ago I was up Wild Bank Hill with middle daughter, watching the sun go down, which it refused to do, 9 o'clock still being too early for it. Shorts and t-shirts weather; a balmy evening, a warm wind. Beautiful, bucolic Greater Manchester.


    Fantastic

    I am trying to track down a quote by an English king who said that England is the only country in the world you can sleep outside every night of the year. I think the quote might be in a T H White book. google doesn't help, can anyone?

    Complete bollocks then and now, obv, btw.
  • XipeXipe Posts: 47
    Hard to believe this is going to happen. but it is now little more than 24 hours away

    According to one model (ICON), the temperature at 23:59 tomorrow will, in places, be 35C or even more - across wide swathes of England and Wales. Even in Central Belt Scotland you can expect 28C

    Repeat, these are not daily maxima at 2 or 4pm, this is around midnight

    Good luck trying to sleep if it is 35C and you have no aircon, like 96% of Brits; good luck staying alive, in fact
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,342
    Farooq said:

    Cookie said:

    A few months back I posted some egregious drivel misquoting Boethius about the English year being a wheel, and the bleakness of January being an acceptable price to pay for the glories of midsummer.
    Well January was worth it; this midsummer is being particularly glorious. Maybe it's that the last two midsummers were spent under soul-sapping restrictions, but I cannot recall a midsummer which felt so full of light. It is just now getting dark in Manchester and I am sat in the warmth of the garden listening to my neighbours telly at far too great a volume, but 90 minutes ago I was up Wild Bank Hill with middle daughter, watching the sun go down, which it refused to do, 9 o'clock still being too early for it. Shorts and t-shirts weather; a balmy evening, a warm wind. Beautiful, bucolic Greater Manchester.




    "Egregious", as a word, is a real piece of work. It used to mean "fantastic", and now it means terrible. An egregious example of the phenomenon being discussed earlier.
    Lovely photos too. Wicked, even.
    Tell me about it.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Farooq said:

    Cookie said:

    A few months back I posted some egregious drivel misquoting Boethius about the English year being a wheel, and the bleakness of January being an acceptable price to pay for the glories of midsummer.
    Well January was worth it; this midsummer is being particularly glorious. Maybe it's that the last two midsummers were spent under soul-sapping restrictions, but I cannot recall a midsummer which felt so full of light. It is just now getting dark in Manchester and I am sat in the warmth of the garden listening to my neighbours telly at far too great a volume, but 90 minutes ago I was up Wild Bank Hill with middle daughter, watching the sun go down, which it refused to do, 9 o'clock still being too early for it. Shorts and t-shirts weather; a balmy evening, a warm wind. Beautiful, bucolic Greater Manchester.




    "Egregious", as a word, is a real piece of work. It used to mean "fantastic", and now it means terrible. An egregious example of the phenomenon being discussed earlier.
    Lovely photos too. Wicked, even.
    E outside of, grex the herd. The word itself doesn't specify, outside in which direction
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,732
    Xipe said:

    kinabalu said:

    Xipe said:

    Alistair said:

    kle4 said:

    Sunak comes out of this exchange with Truss really badly.

    https://twitter.com/adrian_hilton/status/1548754814263128064

    I don't know what he was thinking. Predictable and easy to counter.
    That was a jaw droppingly shit question by Sunak.

    This man cannot be Prime Minister
    Not sure you can dismiss him because of one misfired question

    Fact is the Tories have an unpalatable choice of highly flawed candidates, but one will have to do. Their only solace is that the winner is facing an equally uninspiring Labour leader

    I reckon Mordaunt or Sunak could beat Starmer, but probably won't due to the overwhelming desire for a change and economic headwinds. Badenoch (too young and callow), Tugendhat (too lightweight and meaningless) and Truss (too stilted and bonkers) would pretty much guarantee defeat, possibly a calamitous defeat
    Where's your full stops?
    Sacrificed to a vengeful God.
    Indeed. My heroes, the Aztec nobility, eschewed otiose punctuation and instead ritually pierced the tender parts of their body, with cactus thorns, obsidian flakes, and stingray spines, thereby propitiating the angry deities by the endless letting of human blood. The rites confounded early Spanish observers. From a 1556 manuscript:


    "At times they sacrificed their own blood, cutting all around the ears in strips which they let hang as a sign. At other times they perforated their cheeks or the lower lip; again they made cuts in parts of the body, or pierced the tongue crossways and passed stalks through, causing extreme pain; again they hewed at the superfluous part of the penis, leaving the flesh in the form of two floppy ears. It was this custom which misled [engaño] the historian-general of the Indies to say that they practised circumcision"

    Great people. No full stops
    Some young people and most Russian trolls appear to punctuate in a vaguely similar way: by avoiding the final full top because they don't want to appear too assertive. They also tend to join sentences together using ellipses, for the same reason. Also because their talent for syntax is weak. I rather suspect none of these things apply to our new poster. Welcome, by the way!
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Farooq said:

    Cookie said:

    A few months back I posted some egregious drivel misquoting Boethius about the English year being a wheel, and the bleakness of January being an acceptable price to pay for the glories of midsummer.
    Well January was worth it; this midsummer is being particularly glorious. Maybe it's that the last two midsummers were spent under soul-sapping restrictions, but I cannot recall a midsummer which felt so full of light. It is just now getting dark in Manchester and I am sat in the warmth of the garden listening to my neighbours telly at far too great a volume, but 90 minutes ago I was up Wild Bank Hill with middle daughter, watching the sun go down, which it refused to do, 9 o'clock still being too early for it. Shorts and t-shirts weather; a balmy evening, a warm wind. Beautiful, bucolic Greater Manchester.




    "Egregious", as a word, is a real piece of work. It used to mean "fantastic", and now it means terrible. An egregious example of the phenomenon being discussed earlier.
    Lovely photos too. Wicked, even.
    Tell me about it.
    Some post.
  • XipeXipe Posts: 47
    35C at midnight. That is quite terrifying
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,732

    Cookie said:

    A few months back I posted some egregious drivel misquoting Boethius about the English year being a wheel, and the bleakness of January being an acceptable price to pay for the glories of midsummer.
    Well January was worth it; this midsummer is being particularly glorious. Maybe it's that the last two midsummers were spent under soul-sapping restrictions, but I cannot recall a midsummer which felt so full of light. It is just now getting dark in Manchester and I am sat in the warmth of the garden listening to my neighbours telly at far too great a volume, but 90 minutes ago I was up Wild Bank Hill with middle daughter, watching the sun go down, which it refused to do, 9 o'clock still being too early for it. Shorts and t-shirts weather; a balmy evening, a warm wind. Beautiful, bucolic Greater Manchester.




    Boethius’s Wheel in Manchester? You must be the reincarnation of Tony Wilson.

    The original drivel was in fact a misquote of Tony Wilson in 24 hour Party People, who may or may not have been quoting Boethius accurately in the first place :-)
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,479
    edited July 2022
    Next Saturday London will peak at 22C in the daytime. Bit of a change in just a few days.

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2022-07-18
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,446

    JohnO said:

    Don't know how HYUFD feels, but my sense (certainly talking to folks on Friday in now super marginal Esher and Walton) is that Sunak can beat Truss. His Thatcherite fiscally responsible line will command a (grudging) respect from members.

    Not predicting that outcome yet, but the notion that Liz will be the inevitable victor is fanciful.

    PS And being on the same side as Dominic Raab is slightly perturbing... but needs must.

    It's very close between Rishi and Liz in the members at the moment but, as you and I know, the idea they're all bats is simply a caricature put around by our opponents.

    They want to win GEs just as the MPs do.
    My Dad has wanted PM Rishi from the start, the last year in fact. I just spoke to him, he is still worried about Truss beating him.

    I told him to relax. truss won’t get near top 2. He asked why. Because she is rubbish is the answer. She just can’t do it. She just hasn’t’ got it. Not sharp enough on her feet, no charisma, no presentational charm. No communication skills whatsoever. She is miles from top two. Penny or Rishi need to be nobbledd by some revelation for truss to come close to second stage.

    And that crap on front the Mail about evidence Penny is the new Jeremy Corbyn is NOT the revelation that knock her out.
    Is that all you got Daily Mail? Pretty desperate now Eh?
  • XipeXipe Posts: 47
    For a measure of what we're facing

    Here are the records for the Philippines

    "Data from PAGASA showed that the hottest temperature in the country was recorded in Tuguegarao, Cagayan on April 22, 1912 and May 11, 1969 at 42.2 degrees Celsius. In Metro Manila, the hottest temperature was registered at 38.6 degrees Celsius on May 17, 1915"

    London may beat the hottest temperature ever recorded in Manila

    Oh, and Bangkok, too:


    "The highest recorded maximum temperature in Bangkok is 40.8 °C (105.4 °F) in May 1983"
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Farooq said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Cookie said:

    A few months back I posted some egregious drivel misquoting Boethius about the English year being a wheel, and the bleakness of January being an acceptable price to pay for the glories of midsummer.
    Well January was worth it; this midsummer is being particularly glorious. Maybe it's that the last two midsummers were spent under soul-sapping restrictions, but I cannot recall a midsummer which felt so full of light. It is just now getting dark in Manchester and I am sat in the warmth of the garden listening to my neighbours telly at far too great a volume, but 90 minutes ago I was up Wild Bank Hill with middle daughter, watching the sun go down, which it refused to do, 9 o'clock still being too early for it. Shorts and t-shirts weather; a balmy evening, a warm wind. Beautiful, bucolic Greater Manchester.


    Fantastic

    I am trying to track down a quote by an English king who said that England is the only country in the world you can sleep outside every night of the year. I think the quote might be in a T H White book. google doesn't help, can anyone?

    Complete bollocks then and now, obv, btw.
    How much warmer was England during the Mediaeval Warm Period? Might be someone who was around then?
    Could be

    The impression from Shakespeare is that exremes were extremer both ways in ye olden times. Fear no more the heat of the sun vs when icicles hang on the wall.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,479
    Xipe said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Sky News paper reviewer says some of Kemi Badenoch's policies could be viewed as far right. Someone from Novara Media.

    Novara Media are Marxist Corbynites. Full fat luxury communism and all that. Set your dial to "ignore"
    Why do Sky News invite people like that onto the show?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,342
    Can anyome summarise briefly what's causing the warm spell? I'm hoping it'll be a bit gusty and blow over.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    Andy_JS said:

    Xipe said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Sky News paper reviewer says some of Kemi Badenoch's policies could be viewed as far right. Someone from Novara Media.

    Novara Media are Marxist Corbynites. Full fat luxury communism and all that. Set your dial to "ignore"
    Why do Sky News invite people like that onto the show?
    Who else wants to do it at 10pm on a warm Sunday night?
  • XipeXipe Posts: 47
    HOWEVER, there may be some unexpected rain/storms developing, which could save us from the worst of the heat

    Not good if you want the drama of record-breaking, but probably best for anyone that wants to make it alive to Wednesday
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Would Tugenhat be doing better in the Tory leadership race IF he changed his surname to "Doffencap"?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    edited July 2022

    Can anyome summarise briefly what's causing the warm spell? I'm hoping it'll be a bit gusty and blow over.

    A low to our west/southwest sucking up hot air from Africa. Air runs anti-clockwise around the low, so it’s a southerly from an extremely warm source.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,760
    Xipe said:

    35C at midnight. That is quite terrifying

    In London? 24 degrees midnight tonight, 28 tomorrow night.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,637

    Can anyome summarise briefly what's causing the warm spell? I'm hoping it'll be a bit gusty and blow over.

    Summer
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Andy_JS said:

    Xipe said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Sky News paper reviewer says some of Kemi Badenoch's policies could be viewed as far right. Someone from Novara Media.

    Novara Media are Marxist Corbynites. Full fat luxury communism and all that. Set your dial to "ignore"
    Why do Sky News invite people like that onto the show?
    Who else wants to do it at 10pm on a warm Sunday night?
    You'll have to buy me dinner first
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,607
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Are we about see Badenoch installed as the leader-in-waiting who will take over after Sunak/Truss loses in 2024?

    Looks that way from those membership voting numbers.

    Assuming Sunak or Truss win the leadership and then lose in 2024, though Sunak has a chance of a narrow win unlike Truss I think, then Badenoch or Patel will likely be the favourites to be Leader of the Opposition depending on which of them the ERG back
    I agree with the poster below who suggested if Sunak lost Mordaunt would probably still be the main threat. I think that's plausible.
    Mordaunt or Tugenhadt might be the candidate Patel or Badenoch beat in the membership vote, she would be unlikely to end up Leader of the Opposition
    Patel has some of Truss's problems, I think, and Badenoch needs years' more of experience.
    If say Sunak wins this leadership election, which is probably now the likeliest outcome and loses the next general election then the ERG would ensure they get their candidate in the final two next time, as they may not this time if Truss is knocked out in the final MP round.

    The membership would then likely vote for that candidate to be Leader of the Opposition and the candidates the ERG would probably back in Opposition would be Badenoch or Priti Patel, maybe Steve Baker but if the Tories lose the general election he would likely have lost his marginal seat. Dorries or Rees Mogg long shots
    Mogg aint keeping his seat imho.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,446
    edited July 2022

    Can anyome summarise briefly what's causing the warm spell? I'm hoping it'll be a bit gusty and blow over.

    It’s a bit of the jet stream that has become detached. I think sad lonely low is the technical term for it. Whilst Jet stream is south of Iceland allowing highs to build on us, sad lonely low is out in the Atlantic near Portugal creeping towards us, pulling heat with it like they pulled mines in galaxy quest.

    Your welcome 🙂
  • XipeXipe Posts: 47

    Can anyome summarise briefly what's causing the warm spell? I'm hoping it'll be a bit gusty and blow over.

    A "plume" which is sucking up air directly from north Africa. Tomorrow it will feel African in much of eastern/central Britain

    Various things have to fall into place for this to happen, making it very rare, especially in this extreme way

    It will blow over quickly, gone by PM Wednesday for most. After that we go back to average British summer weather! 22C and drizzle. Amazing
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 792
    Xipe said:

    like 96% of Brits

    What do the other 4% have? If it's fitted aircon it frankly sounds too high to me - would suggest more than a million air conditioned households in the UK. Doesn't ring true.

    If it's the portable stuff though it sounds too low - at least for this particular extreme couple of days. Anecdotally I have doled out all but one of our portable units to family members and know plenty who have bought them leading up to this (or in reaction to other heat waves).

    They're not even expensive - way less than an iphone for example.

    Way more brits than 4% will have either bought at least one, or borrowed one off friends/family. I think at least 10%. Not everyone is struggling *that* much.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Can anyome summarise briefly what's causing the warm spell? I'm hoping it'll be a bit gusty and blow over.

    A low to our west/southwest sucking up hot air from Africa. Air runs anti-clockwise around the low, so it’s a southerly from an extremely warm source.
    Buys Ballot's Law

    With Your Back to the Blast, the Low's to your Left.

    A non-inverse mnemonic
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,760

    Can anyome summarise briefly what's causing the warm spell? I'm hoping it'll be a bit gusty and blow over.

    It’s a bit of the jet stream that has become detached. I think sad lonely low is the technical term for it. Whilst Jet stream is south of Iceland allowing highs to build on us, sad lonely low is out in the Atlantic near Portugal creeping towards us, pulling heat with it like they pulled mines in galaxy quest.

    Your welcome 🙂
    You're welcome.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    edited July 2022
    There’s been a lot of weather chat on here again. There are plenty of weather sites out there if people are interested.
    Xipe said:

    Can anyome summarise briefly what's causing the warm spell? I'm hoping it'll be a bit gusty and blow over.

    A "plume" which is sucking up air directly from north Africa. Tomorrow it will feel African in much of eastern/central Britain

    Various things have to fall into place for this to happen, making it very rare, especially in this extreme way

    It will blow over quickly, gone by PM Wednesday for most. After that we go back to average British summer weather! 22C and drizzle. Amazing
    Plumes really aren’t that rare, we tend to have one or two most summers. This one is unusually (possibly uniquely) hot - 38-40c rather than a more typical 33-36c.
  • XipeXipe Posts: 47

    Xipe said:

    like 96% of Brits

    What do the other 4% have? If it's fitted aircon it frankly sounds too high to me - would suggest more than a million air conditioned households in the UK. Doesn't ring true.

    If it's the portable stuff though it sounds too low - at least for this particular extreme couple of days. Anecdotally I have doled out all but one of our portable units to family members and know plenty who have bought them leading up to this (or in reaction to other heat waves).

    They're not even expensive - way less than an iphone for example.

    Way more brits than 4% will have either bought at least one, or borrowed one off friends/family. I think at least 10%. Not everyone is struggling *that* much.
    I've no idea of the actual stats. I just wish I had aircon. Whether it is 28C in London at midnight (Met Office) or 35C (ICON) that is horrific. People with dodgy hearts and the like will suffer intensely, if this verifies

    It also means the record high minimum will be smashed
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,607

    Harry Cole
    @MrHarryCole
    ·
    3h
    Sunak going straight to the membership with “what is the point of the Conservatives if it’s not sound money”?

    But will they listen by September?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Who was the PBer who said they'd eat their hat IF it hit 40? And what's best beverage to wash it down?

    Looks like it will be a close-run thing. Glad I am NOT there to experience in person. But fear my time may come later this summer.
  • XipeXipe Posts: 47

    Who was the PBer who said they'd eat their hat IF it hit 40? And what's best beverage to wash it down?

    Looks like it will be a close-run thing. Glad I am NOT there to experience in person. But fear my time may come later this summer.

    It was @AndyJS and he was going to eat his hat if it hit 36C. That seems certes
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,732

    Can anyome summarise briefly what's causing the warm spell? I'm hoping it'll be a bit gusty and blow over.

    Summer
    I think that summary was perhaps a little too brief.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,450

    Can anyome summarise briefly what's causing the warm spell? I'm hoping it'll be a bit gusty and blow over.

    Hoping not. Just extracted myself from the pool as night swimming is my new favourite pastime as the water feels around the same as outside air temp so long may this continue.And I get to lie to myself that my 20 lengths have burnt off the day’s booze consumption.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Cookie said:

    Can anyome summarise briefly what's causing the warm spell? I'm hoping it'll be a bit gusty and blow over.

    Summer
    I think that summary was perhaps a little too brief.
    Its lease had all too short a date.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,607

    Laura Parker
    @ParkerCiccone
    This is just NOT TRUE!

    I was at the same school at the same time as
    @trussliz


    It provided support to children for whom English was a second language; had good special needs provision; excelled in sport, music and drama; and had significant numbers going to university.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,664
    edited July 2022

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Are we about see Badenoch installed as the leader-in-waiting who will take over after Sunak/Truss loses in 2024?

    Looks that way from those membership voting numbers.

    Assuming Sunak or Truss win the leadership and then lose in 2024, though Sunak has a chance of a narrow win unlike Truss I think, then Badenoch or Patel will likely be the favourites to be Leader of the Opposition depending on which of them the ERG back
    I agree with the poster below who suggested if Sunak lost Mordaunt would probably still be the main threat. I think that's plausible.
    Mordaunt or Tugenhadt might be the candidate Patel or Badenoch beat in the membership vote, she would be unlikely to end up Leader of the Opposition
    Patel has some of Truss's problems, I think, and Badenoch needs years' more of experience.
    If say Sunak wins this leadership election, which is probably now the likeliest outcome and loses the next general election then the ERG would ensure they get their candidate in the final two next time, as they may not this time if Truss is knocked out in the final MP round.

    The membership would then likely vote for that candidate to be Leader of the Opposition and the candidates the ERG would probably back in Opposition would be Badenoch or Priti Patel, maybe Steve Baker but if the Tories lose the general election he would likely have lost his marginal seat. Dorries or Rees Mogg long shots
    Mogg aint keeping his seat imho.
    He is, Labour need a 13% swing to gain it, not happening even on most current polls let alone if the new Tory leader gets a poll bounce
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,900
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Just to stick my neck out on prediction again.

    Tory contest prediction 17 July

    So, second round was:

    Sunak - 101
    Mordaunt - 83
    Truss - 64
    Badenoch - 49
    Tugendhat - 32
    Braverman - 27

    Prediction for the next round:

    Sunak - 116 (+13)
    Mordaunt - 88 (+5)
    Truss - 84 (+20)
    Badenoch - 45 (-4)
    Tugendhat - 25 (-7)

    Penny loses the big mo but just retains her place. Badenoch and Tom run out of steam.

    Tom then endorses Mordaunt, and she slightly increases her lead over Truss.

    Badenoch's support then splits mostly for Truss and some for Sunak, putting Sunak and Truss in the final two by a gnat's whisker.

    Prediction for the fourth round:

    Sunak - 119 (+6)
    Mordaunt - 104 (+16)
    Truss - 92 (+8)
    Badenoch - 40 (-5)

    Prediction for the final round:

    Sunak - 133 (+14)
    Mordaunt - 110 (+6)
    Truss - 112 (+20)

    On those figures Sunak can easily lend Mordaunt 5 to 10 MPs to knock out Truss in the final round and still top the poll
    A question for you, HYUFD. I skim through ConHome comments from time to time. What strikes me is the very high proportion opposed to net zero and, frankly, a bit climate change sceptic. Do you think that is why their surveys are coming out so strongly in favour of Badenoch, as she's the only candidate who's expressed real doubt about the timetable for net zero? Do the views of those who write comments coincide, at least to some degree, to those who respond to their surveys?
    A fair amount I suspect, if Sunak or Mordaunt win I would expect some leakage on the right to Farage's RefUK though they also likely win back some voters from Labour and the LDs
    No, I don't think so. Whoever ends up as leader of the Conservative Party, this process has clearly shown that he or she will be a prisoner of the extremist head-bangers. This is not attractive to decent Conservative voters, still less to those who currently vote Lib Dem or Labour.

    The sorry truth for traditional Conservative voters is that their former party is terminally fragmented into vicious factions, who can never work together again.

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,479
    edited July 2022

    Can anyome summarise briefly what's causing the warm spell? I'm hoping it'll be a bit gusty and blow over.

    Strong southerly wind. Most of the very hot days I can remember previously have been almost wind-free. This is going to be strange by comparison, with a hot wind blowing most of the time.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    ClippP said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Just to stick my neck out on prediction again.

    Tory contest prediction 17 July

    So, second round was:

    Sunak - 101
    Mordaunt - 83
    Truss - 64
    Badenoch - 49
    Tugendhat - 32
    Braverman - 27

    Prediction for the next round:

    Sunak - 116 (+13)
    Mordaunt - 88 (+5)
    Truss - 84 (+20)
    Badenoch - 45 (-4)
    Tugendhat - 25 (-7)

    Penny loses the big mo but just retains her place. Badenoch and Tom run out of steam.

    Tom then endorses Mordaunt, and she slightly increases her lead over Truss.

    Badenoch's support then splits mostly for Truss and some for Sunak, putting Sunak and Truss in the final two by a gnat's whisker.

    Prediction for the fourth round:

    Sunak - 119 (+6)
    Mordaunt - 104 (+16)
    Truss - 92 (+8)
    Badenoch - 40 (-5)

    Prediction for the final round:

    Sunak - 133 (+14)
    Mordaunt - 110 (+6)
    Truss - 112 (+20)

    On those figures Sunak can easily lend Mordaunt 5 to 10 MPs to knock out Truss in the final round and still top the poll
    A question for you, HYUFD. I skim through ConHome comments from time to time. What strikes me is the very high proportion opposed to net zero and, frankly, a bit climate change sceptic. Do you think that is why their surveys are coming out so strongly in favour of Badenoch, as she's the only candidate who's expressed real doubt about the timetable for net zero? Do the views of those who write comments coincide, at least to some degree, to those who respond to their surveys?
    A fair amount I suspect, if Sunak or Mordaunt win I would expect some leakage on the right to Farage's RefUK though they also likely win back some voters from Labour and the LDs
    No, I don't think so. Whoever ends up as leader of the Conservative Party, this process has clearly shown that he or she will be a prisoner of the extremist head-bangers. This is not attractive to decent Conservative voters, still less to those who currently vote Lib Dem or Labour.

    The sorry truth for traditional Conservative voters is that their former party is terminally fragmented into vicious factions, who can never work together again.
    Not bad points, but never is a long time, and SKS is quite irredeemably crap. I used to think of him as mogadon man, but he makes mogadon look like crystal meth. In any of these utterly lamentable tory debates, he would have struggled to come joint last.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,479

    Who was the PBer who said they'd eat their hat IF it hit 40? And what's best beverage to wash it down?

    Looks like it will be a close-run thing. Glad I am NOT there to experience in person. But fear my time may come later this summer.

    That was me. Looks like I'll be eating my hat.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994
    edited July 2022
    IanB2 said:

    I have never understood why it matters anything to anybody when one anonymous poster returns as another anonymous poster. Who cares?

    So what’s the point of a ban?
    It shows people crossed a line. Bans are sometimes temporary anyway, as we've seen with users temporarily banned and returning.

    If someone returned under a new name and behaved themselves for while, a ban will have had an effect.

    Obsessing about it is just silliness.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,607
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Are we about see Badenoch installed as the leader-in-waiting who will take over after Sunak/Truss loses in 2024?

    Looks that way from those membership voting numbers.

    Assuming Sunak or Truss win the leadership and then lose in 2024, though Sunak has a chance of a narrow win unlike Truss I think, then Badenoch or Patel will likely be the favourites to be Leader of the Opposition depending on which of them the ERG back
    I agree with the poster below who suggested if Sunak lost Mordaunt would probably still be the main threat. I think that's plausible.
    Mordaunt or Tugenhadt might be the candidate Patel or Badenoch beat in the membership vote, she would be unlikely to end up Leader of the Opposition
    Patel has some of Truss's problems, I think, and Badenoch needs years' more of experience.
    If say Sunak wins this leadership election, which is probably now the likeliest outcome and loses the next general election then the ERG would ensure they get their candidate in the final two next time, as they may not this time if Truss is knocked out in the final MP round.

    The membership would then likely vote for that candidate to be Leader of the Opposition and the candidates the ERG would probably back in Opposition would be Badenoch or Priti Patel, maybe Steve Baker but if the Tories lose the general election he would likely have lost his marginal seat. Dorries or Rees Mogg long shots
    Mogg aint keeping his seat imho.
    He is, Labour need a 13% swing to gain it, not happening even on most current polls let alone if the new Tory leader gets a poll bounce
    A sea change is coming and Mogg will be swept away as one of those most identified with the crisis that is coming.

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,605
    edited July 2022
    Here’s a new way of looking at this somewhat tedious Tory conference. Assume this contest is the zenith of each of the candidates political careers and they will resign following defeat and make a fast buck in the city,

    Who can the Tory party least afford to lose?

    Honestly, if Mordant and TT went, they would be easily replaced. That leaves Liz, Kemi and Rishi. Who is the rarest and who is a loss?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994


    Harry Cole
    @MrHarryCole
    ·
    3h
    Sunak going straight to the membership with “what is the point of the Conservatives if it’s not sound money”?

    But will they listen by September?

    They really want those tax cuts. I suppose the question is will he be left with no choice but to say "Look, I plan to lower them the year preceding the next General Election, you fools, just hold out until then"?
  • XipeXipe Posts: 47
    Andy_JS said:

    Who was the PBer who said they'd eat their hat IF it hit 40? And what's best beverage to wash it down?

    Looks like it will be a close-run thing. Glad I am NOT there to experience in person. But fear my time may come later this summer.

    That was me. Looks like I'll be eating my hat.
    If you said 36C yes it will probably be hat-eating time. If you said 40C I would hold on to that hat, it's still touch and go. eg tomorrow was expected to reach 40C - but cloud and rain in places might nudge it down to the high 30s. So then it is Tuesday. The heat will build from a higher base, so 40C is certainly POSSIBLE....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,664
    ClippP said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Just to stick my neck out on prediction again.

    Tory contest prediction 17 July

    So, second round was:

    Sunak - 101
    Mordaunt - 83
    Truss - 64
    Badenoch - 49
    Tugendhat - 32
    Braverman - 27

    Prediction for the next round:

    Sunak - 116 (+13)
    Mordaunt - 88 (+5)
    Truss - 84 (+20)
    Badenoch - 45 (-4)
    Tugendhat - 25 (-7)

    Penny loses the big mo but just retains her place. Badenoch and Tom run out of steam.

    Tom then endorses Mordaunt, and she slightly increases her lead over Truss.

    Badenoch's support then splits mostly for Truss and some for Sunak, putting Sunak and Truss in the final two by a gnat's whisker.

    Prediction for the fourth round:

    Sunak - 119 (+6)
    Mordaunt - 104 (+16)
    Truss - 92 (+8)
    Badenoch - 40 (-5)

    Prediction for the final round:

    Sunak - 133 (+14)
    Mordaunt - 110 (+6)
    Truss - 112 (+20)

    On those figures Sunak can easily lend Mordaunt 5 to 10 MPs to knock out Truss in the final round and still top the poll
    A question for you, HYUFD. I skim through ConHome comments from time to time. What strikes me is the very high proportion opposed to net zero and, frankly, a bit climate change sceptic. Do you think that is why their surveys are coming out so strongly in favour of Badenoch, as she's the only candidate who's expressed real doubt about the timetable for net zero? Do the views of those who write comments coincide, at least to some degree, to those who respond to their surveys?
    A fair amount I suspect, if Sunak or Mordaunt win I would expect some leakage on the right to Farage's RefUK though they also likely win back some voters from Labour and the LDs
    No, I don't think so. Whoever ends up as leader of the Conservative Party, this process has clearly shown that he or she will be a prisoner of the extremist head-bangers. This is not attractive to decent Conservative voters, still less to those who currently vote Lib Dem or Labour.

    The sorry truth for traditional Conservative voters is that their former party is terminally fragmented into vicious factions, who can never work together again.

    People said the same about Labour a few years ago
This discussion has been closed.