The bottom line is that any new Tory leader has to deal with the Tory right. You either have to win their support or dominate them. Note that Boris succeeded because he simultaneously did both. May was crushed by them. Arguably Cameron too.
Mourdant or Sunak will be battling them throughout their Premierships. Do they have the strength to overcome them? That’s not clear today, but what is obvious is that they have no choice now but to take them on.
The temperatures seem to drop pretty quickly on Tuesday. Are we going to get some major thunderstorms? The one in August 2020 in Edinburgh was extraordinary.
Definitely some COBR related work going on now. Lots of worry about drownings- @Big_G_NorthWales relative (son?) will be busy.
Also a friend in Mountain Rescue is worried about Sunday in Scotland - heat stroke/exhaustion.
Doesn't need to be that hot to be a problem on our exposed hills in the UK. I ended up quite unwell trying to do the Yorkshire 3 peaks in July 2019.
I was in Paris at the height of the 2003 heatwave. It was bloody hot, but we still managed our site seeing. The glass pyramid at the Louvre was like a greenhouse in full sun, but the sprinklers on in the green areas around the city were wonderful for the kids.
Hottest place that I have been was Darwin, building up to the rains. 40C and humid, with a budget that didn't stretch to AC.
He seems to get treated as a big beast of the party for some reason. He came from nowhere, served briefly in a job usually done by nameless officials, and was ennobled, that's it.
You missed out the fact he did an excellent job in that job, which was a very critical job at a very critical time.
Frost achieved more in his limited time in that one job than most politicians or officials will achieve in a career.
He seems to get treated as a big beast of the party for some reason. He came from nowhere, served briefly in a job usually done by nameless officials, and was ennobled, that's it.
Frost is spectacularly, joyously, irredeemably, mediocre. He is a world class third rater. It’s just great that the Tories seem to take him seriously!
If the ERG are only 60 strong and several were already supporting Truss and say 23-24 of them (vast majority?) were Braverman then how many will listen and switch from both her and Badenoch?
I think Badenoch voters will stay fairly loyal, not entirely, so let's say she picks up 3-4 Braverman and sheds 10 ERG to Truss then we have something like 97 votes for Truss.
The question then is were the Tugendhat votes go (probably a mix of Sunak and Mordaunt) and Kemi's votes probably mainly go to Truss.
Basically, I think Truss overtakes Mordaunt once Kemi is eliminated whilst Sunak almost certainly makes it to 115 votes and should make it to 120+.
So it's probably Sunak v. Truss. Penny is in trouble.
Edit: this assumes majority of ERG (e.g. c. 35 votes) are currently down under Badenoch and Braverman and not Truss and will all obey the switch. It also assumes that the count of 60 ERG is correct. Further, that virtually none to to Mordaunt.
If any of that is wrong, then it could still be very close between Mordaunt and Truss on MP votes.
Quote from the Telegraph:
"In a letter seen by The Telegraph, Mr Francois – who has already declared for Ms Truss – said that, at a meeting of the ERG on Wednesday, “we did overwhelmingly agree that there were two candidates who we felt stood out among all the others, namely Suella Braverman and Liz Truss”.
He added: “While nearly all members of the group were backing either one or the other, we also agreed collectively that, if only one got through to the next round, we would then row in behind that candidate, whichever one it might be.”"
ie Nearly all members of ERG are already supporting Truss or Braverman.
It's all going to hinge on how the Badenoch vote splits - and that is hard to tell. Truss will probably get more of it than Mordaunt - but will she get enough more?
Stood out for being bonkers, not good.
The demise of the ERG is something I look forward to.
Yes thank God these utter loons are exiting the stage, it's a real relief the country has never adopted any of their crazy ideas. Wait, what?
If the ERG are only 60 strong and several were already supporting Truss and say 23-24 of them (vast majority?) were Braverman then how many will listen and switch from both her and Badenoch?
I think Badenoch voters will stay fairly loyal, not entirely, so let's say she picks up 3-4 Braverman and sheds 10 ERG to Truss then we have something like 97 votes for Truss.
The question then is were the Tugendhat votes go (probably a mix of Sunak and Mordaunt) and Kemi's votes probably mainly go to Truss.
Basically, I think Truss overtakes Mordaunt once Kemi is eliminated whilst Sunak almost certainly makes it to 115 votes and should make it to 120+.
So it's probably Sunak v. Truss. Penny is in trouble.
Then it is likely PM Truss and the Tories in deep trouble
The bottom line is that any new Tory leader has to deal with the Tory right. You either have to win their support or dominate them. Note that Boris succeeded because he simultaneously did both. May was crushed by them. Arguably Cameron too.
Mourdant or Sunak will be battling them throughout their Premierships. Do they have the strength to overcome them? That’s not clear today, but what is obvious is that they have no choice now but to take them on.
The truly insane thing is that both Sunak and Mordaunt are of the right, and clearly so. The other wing of Centrist One Nation Tories has long been purged.
The temperatures seem to drop pretty quickly on Tuesday. Are we going to get some major thunderstorms? The one in August 2020 in Edinburgh was extraordinary.
Definitely some COBR related work going on now. Lots of worry about drownings- @Big_G_NorthWales relative (son?) will be busy.
Also a friend in Mountain Rescue is worried about Sunday in Scotland - heat stroke/exhaustion.
Doesn't need to be that hot to be a problem on our exposed hills in the UK. I ended up quite unwell trying to do the Yorkshire 3 peaks in July 2019.
I was in Paris at the height of the 2003 heatwave. It was bloody hot, but we still managed our site seeing. The glass pyramid at the Louvre was like a greenhouse in full sun, but the sprinklers on in the green areas around the city were wonderful for the kids.
Hottest place that I have been was Darwin, building up to the rains. 40C and humid, with a budget that didn't stretch to AC.
If it gets near 40C in London (quite likely now) I reckon we’ll see people jumping in the Thames. Which can be properly dangerous
I feel like it's still Mordaunt who has the edge. If they want a fresh start she works, but she does not entirely lack experience so the Truss and Sunak contrasts are not as effective as against Badenoch. She's more normal seeming than Truss, and first impressions matter - member like her, and so sniping from Frost and others may not shake that.
The bottom line is that any new Tory leader has to deal with the Tory right. You either have to win their support or dominate them. Note that Boris succeeded because he simultaneously did both. May was crushed by them. Arguably Cameron too.
Mourdant or Sunak will be battling them throughout their Premierships. Do they have the strength to overcome them? That’s not clear today, but what is obvious is that they have no choice now but to take them on.
Good post. They arent a majority, but it's a big chunk you have to deal with somehow.
The temperatures seem to drop pretty quickly on Tuesday. Are we going to get some major thunderstorms? The one in August 2020 in Edinburgh was extraordinary.
Definitely some COBR related work going on now. Lots of worry about drownings- @Big_G_NorthWales relative (son?) will be busy.
Also a friend in Mountain Rescue is worried about Sunday in Scotland - heat stroke/exhaustion.
Doesn't need to be that hot to be a problem on our exposed hills in the UK. I ended up quite unwell trying to do the Yorkshire 3 peaks in July 2019.
I was in Paris at the height of the 2003 heatwave. It was bloody hot, but we still managed our site seeing. The glass pyramid at the Louvre was like a greenhouse in full sun, but the sprinklers on in the green areas around the city were wonderful for the kids.
Hottest place that I have been was Darwin, building up to the rains. 40C and humid, with a budget that didn't stretch to AC.
If it gets near 40C in London (quite likely now) I reckon we’ll see people jumping in the Thames. Which can be properly dangerous
Nobody has mentioned riots yet? The Meadows in Edinburgh were quite aggro last summer, all the post lockdown teenagers went a bit mad. Must be a chance.
The bottom line is that any new Tory leader has to deal with the Tory right. You either have to win their support or dominate them. Note that Boris succeeded because he simultaneously did both. May was crushed by them. Arguably Cameron too.
Mourdant or Sunak will be battling them throughout their Premierships. Do they have the strength to overcome them? That’s not clear today, but what is obvious is that they have no choice now but to take them on.
The truly insane thing is that both Sunak and Mordaunt are of the right, and clearly so. The other wing of Centrist One Nation Tories has long been purged.
The one consistent aspect of this contest is that the Tories are swinging to the right. It’s just a question of how far. Cameronism is loooong dead. Today it’s all about tax cuts and scapegoats.
If the ERG are only 60 strong and several were already supporting Truss and say 23-24 of them (vast majority?) were Braverman then how many will listen and switch from both her and Badenoch?
I think Badenoch voters will stay fairly loyal, not entirely, so let's say she picks up 3-4 Braverman and sheds 10 ERG to Truss then we have something like 97 votes for Truss.
The question then is were the Tugendhat votes go (probably a mix of Sunak and Mordaunt) and Kemi's votes probably mainly go to Truss.
Basically, I think Truss overtakes Mordaunt once Kemi is eliminated whilst Sunak almost certainly makes it to 115 votes and should make it to 120+.
So it's probably Sunak v. Truss. Penny is in trouble.
Then it is likely PM Truss and the Tories in deep trouble
That's what I feel in my waters. The Conservative Party members are mad enough to vote for her. She will be ghastly.
All those scoffing at possible very high temperatures now look quite foolish, perhaps
BBC predicting 40C on Monday in places
Who has been scoffing? I have pointed out, correctly, uncertainty in modelling. And a reminder, it hasn’t happened yet. No question it will be hot, and quite possibly see the U.K. record go. Will be very short lived heat though.
Yes, some dude on Netweather says Liverpool might go from ~40C to ~20C in three hours
And nothing is nailed on. A bit of cloud or a sudden storm and it’s just a major heat blast not an all time record
I’d say the chances of 40C somewhere are 30% and the chances of breaking the record 50%
The Met Office forecasts are also still edging upwards. Heathrow now forecast to touch 39C, Sheffield 36C.
I don't think your odds are too far out.
The government should be handing out advice from today
40C or not, record or not, this is far more widespread than 2019 - stretching quite far north. And lasting 2-3 days with scary not-very-minimal temps. Few people in the UK will have experienced these temps without aircon in their holiday hotels
I have. They’re not funny
I recall sitting in a remote windless, fanless safari camp in South Luangwa Zambia as it went way over 40C one afternoon. My only recourse was to dunk cloth in cold water then drape it over my naked body - and sit there in the shade, praying for it to go
You know all that "stay at home" stuff we had during the pandemic? I remember thinking at the time: pretty soon something will happen which will actually justify staying at home and the government, of course, won't bother to give the right advice. Well, here we are. They ought to be telling everyone to stay at home on Monday and Tuesday, and they're not. Not so far anyway.
I have a proof on Tuesday. I am not sure that a dress shirt, waistcoat, tails, gown and woolen trousers are quite the thing for this but I will put a horsehair wig on my head just in case.
The contest which would most amuse the public during August would be Truss v Mordaunt. The best chance of the Tories holding their own at the next election and having a reasonable government until then is Sunak.
Starmer's dream result is Mordaunt and Truss taking chunks out of each other over the summer followed by a Truss victory.
It is difficult to judge actually.
Remember when the Tories first chose Thatcher as leader , Labour then reacted with glee.
IMO, Starmer should not be worrying about a "dream result" but concentrating on making himself, his team and his policies much more credible.
Thatcher was first elected Leader of the Opposition not PM.
In 1979 she won mainly because the Labour government was so useless on the economy, Callaghan still beat her as preferred PM
This is interesting. An AEP piece on Sunak's plans for UK debt.
"The latest trick is to a claim that the interest burden is suddenly vaulting into the stratosphere due to inflation, more than doubling to £87bn a year as the bill rises on index-linked Gilts.
This mixes up actual payments with the accounting accrual cost of bonds that mostly do not mature until deep into the 2030s, and will be repaid from an equally-inflated base of nominal GDP, at no net loss."
All those scoffing at possible very high temperatures now look quite foolish, perhaps
BBC predicting 40C on Monday in places
Who has been scoffing? I have pointed out, correctly, uncertainty in modelling. And a reminder, it hasn’t happened yet. No question it will be hot, and quite possibly see the U.K. record go. Will be very short lived heat though.
Yes, some dude on Netweather says Liverpool might go from ~40C to ~20C in three hours
And nothing is nailed on. A bit of cloud or a sudden storm and it’s just a major heat blast not an all time record
I’d say the chances of 40C somewhere are 30% and the chances of breaking the record 50%
The Met Office forecasts are also still edging upwards. Heathrow now forecast to touch 39C, Sheffield 36C.
I don't think your odds are too far out.
The government should be handing out advice from today
40C or not, record or not, this is far more widespread than 2019 - stretching quite far north. And lasting 2-3 days with scary not-very-minimal temps. Few people in the UK will have experienced these temps without aircon in their holiday hotels
I have. They’re not funny
I recall sitting in a remote windless, fanless safari camp in South Luangwa Zambia as it went way over 40C one afternoon. My only recourse was to dunk cloth in cold water then drape it over my naked body - and sit there in the shade, praying for it to go
You know all that "stay at home" stuff we had during the pandemic? I remember thinking at the time: pretty soon something will happen which will actually justify staying at home and the government, of course, won't bother to give the right advice. Well, here we are. They ought to be telling everyone to stay at home on Monday and Tuesday, and they're not. Not so far anyway.
So you think the government shouldn't have done lockdown over covid, but should do so over two days of hot temperatures?
If the ERG are only 60 strong and several were already supporting Truss and say 23-24 of them (vast majority?) were Braverman then how many will listen and switch from both her and Badenoch?
I think Badenoch voters will stay fairly loyal, not entirely, so let's say she picks up 3-4 Braverman and sheds 10 ERG to Truss then we have something like 97 votes for Truss.
The question then is were the Tugendhat votes go (probably a mix of Sunak and Mordaunt) and Kemi's votes probably mainly go to Truss.
Basically, I think Truss overtakes Mordaunt once Kemi is eliminated whilst Sunak almost certainly makes it to 115 votes and should make it to 120+.
So it's probably Sunak v. Truss. Penny is in trouble.
Then it is likely PM Truss and the Tories in deep trouble
That's what I feel in my waters. The Conservative Party members are mad enough to vote for her. She will be ghastly.
Why?
Other than the fact she spoke with a weird cadence nearly ten years ago, what has she said or done that is "ghastly"?
The bottom line is that any new Tory leader has to deal with the Tory right. You either have to win their support or dominate them. Note that Boris succeeded because he simultaneously did both. May was crushed by them. Arguably Cameron too.
Mourdant or Sunak will be battling them throughout their Premierships. Do they have the strength to overcome them? That’s not clear today, but what is obvious is that they have no choice now but to take them on.
The truly insane thing is that both Sunak and Mordaunt are of the right, and clearly so. The other wing of Centrist One Nation Tories has long been purged.
Tom Tugendhat is still of the centrist One Nation wing of the Tories but he is no more likely to win now than the Blairite Liz Kendall was to win the 2015 Labour leadership election.
One Nation Tories in the Conservatives are as much a minority now as Blairites in Labour, even Starmer is more Brownite than Blairite
He seems to get treated as a big beast of the party for some reason. He came from nowhere, served briefly in a job usually done by nameless officials, and was ennobled, that's it.
You missed out the fact he did an excellent job in that job, which was a very critical job at a very critical time.
Frost achieved more in his limited time in that one job than most politicians or officials will achieve in a career.
I missed it out because doing a good job in a very brief period in frontline politos doesn't strike me as so amazing you're treated like a party grandee, weighing in like an ex leader or decades serving Cabinet Minister.
He wasn't around long, many MPs and the public probably dont really know him or will be influenced by his take on things. He was in and gone, what would he really know about what MPs should do?
So unlike others I'm not saying its weird he gets so much attention because he's crap or mediocre. That was irrelevant to my point which he is not much of a fixture in conservative politics. It'd be like a one hit wonder given the platform of the Beatles.
The temperatures seem to drop pretty quickly on Tuesday. Are we going to get some major thunderstorms? The one in August 2020 in Edinburgh was extraordinary.
Definitely some COBR related work going on now. Lots of worry about drownings- @Big_G_NorthWales relative (son?) will be busy.
Also a friend in Mountain Rescue is worried about Sunday in Scotland - heat stroke/exhaustion.
Doesn't need to be that hot to be a problem on our exposed hills in the UK. I ended up quite unwell trying to do the Yorkshire 3 peaks in July 2019.
I was in Paris at the height of the 2003 heatwave. It was bloody hot, but we still managed our site seeing. The glass pyramid at the Louvre was like a greenhouse in full sun, but the sprinklers on in the green areas around the city were wonderful for the kids.
Hottest place that I have been was Darwin, building up to the rains. 40C and humid, with a budget that didn't stretch to AC.
If it gets near 40C in London (quite likely now) I reckon we’ll see people jumping in the Thames. Which can be properly dangerous
Nobody has mentioned riots yet? The Meadows in Edinburgh were quite aggro last summer, all the post lockdown teenagers went a bit mad. Must be a chance.
Met Office has Edinburgh max 26 but cloudy on Tuesday. A good 5 deg lower than the record (plus insolation) of some time back.
All those scoffing at possible very high temperatures now look quite foolish, perhaps
BBC predicting 40C on Monday in places
Who has been scoffing? I have pointed out, correctly, uncertainty in modelling. And a reminder, it hasn’t happened yet. No question it will be hot, and quite possibly see the U.K. record go. Will be very short lived heat though.
Yes, some dude on Netweather says Liverpool might go from ~40C to ~20C in three hours
And nothing is nailed on. A bit of cloud or a sudden storm and it’s just a major heat blast not an all time record
I’d say the chances of 40C somewhere are 30% and the chances of breaking the record 50%
How is a wild guess any the more convincing by making up some percentages and putting them underneath?
Unless any of us have expertise in medium range meteorology, all we can do is assess the range of forecasts being made. Scouring the internet for the absolutely highest possible forecast you can find probably isn't the most reliable method of assessment, however.
Because those aren’t the absolute highest possible forecasts, I’m afraid, and because I’m good at speed of reasoning, and you’re not. A fact which seems to annoy you, existentially.
The bottom line is that any new Tory leader has to deal with the Tory right. You either have to win their support or dominate them. Note that Boris succeeded because he simultaneously did both. May was crushed by them. Arguably Cameron too.
Mourdant or Sunak will be battling them throughout their Premierships. Do they have the strength to overcome them? That’s not clear today, but what is obvious is that they have no choice now but to take them on.
The truly insane thing is that both Sunak and Mordaunt are of the right, and clearly so. The other wing of Centrist One Nation Tories has long been purged.
The one consistent aspect of this contest is that the Tories are swinging to the right. It’s just a question of how far. Cameronism is loooong dead. Today it’s all about tax cuts and scapegoats.
That is not a correct reading of Mordaunt.
There's a reason Labour fear her. And it is not because she is a one-size-fits-all right wing loon.
Why Sunak embarrassed himself at his launch trying to suck up to Boris I dont know. The members who like Boris a lot aren't likely to forgive him, he may as well avoid the over the top praise.
The contest which would most amuse the public during August would be Truss v Mordaunt. The best chance of the Tories holding their own at the next election and having a reasonable government until then is Sunak.
Starmer's dream result is Mordaunt and Truss taking chunks out of each other over the summer followed by a Truss victory.
It is difficult to judge actually.
Remember when the Tories first chose Thatcher as leader , Labour then reacted with glee.
IMO, Starmer should not be worrying about a "dream result" but concentrating on making himself, his team and his policies much more credible.
Thatcher was first elected Leader of the Opposition not PM.
In 1979 she won mainly because the Labour government was so useless on the economy, Callaghan still beat her as preferred PM
And she'd have likely been a one-term PM were it not for the Falklands.
The membership pf the new government in Estonia has now been presented to the Parliament, and its quite interesting. As I reported a couple of days ago, despite the difference in the sizes of the Parliamentary fractions, the new, three party, coalition will each have 5 ministers, and although the Prime Minister, Kaja Kallas, keeps her job, this is something of a sacrifice.
More interesting is that several new ministers have quite limited political experience. The new Minister for Justice, Lea Danilson-Järg, for example, is the editor of Postimees, the largest national newspaper, while the new Minister of Culture, Piret Hartman, has been an under secretary at the ministry, but not an active political figure. The relatively new leader of the Social Democrats, Lauri Läänemets takes on the role of Minister of the Interior despite having had no previous ministerial experience. On the other hand the leader of the Conservative Party, Isamaa, Heli-Valdor Seder has not joined Läänemets and Kaja Kallas who is also the leader of her party, in the cabinet, which was a little unexpected and is seen as reflecting divisions within Isamaa.
Of the 15 members, seven are women and the ages range from 31 to 60, with an average of around 46. The government will be dissolved ahead of the next general election on March 5th, but with the continuing Russian aggression and considerable economic and social pressures, it is still going to be a busy time.
The latest economic report shows Estonia has overtaken Spain in GDP/capita and is closing on Italy and the UK. Although the news is generally good, there are several headwinds coming, of which the increasing mess in Russia is probably the most intractable. The number of war crimes committed by the brutal and occasionally shambolic armed forces of the Russian Federation in Ukraine should be a clear reminder that Russia will not back down unless it is made to do so. That is front and centre in the thinking of all the parties in the new government, and though we would wish it otherwise, most likely in the next government too.
All those scoffing at possible very high temperatures now look quite foolish, perhaps
BBC predicting 40C on Monday in places
Who has been scoffing? I have pointed out, correctly, uncertainty in modelling. And a reminder, it hasn’t happened yet. No question it will be hot, and quite possibly see the U.K. record go. Will be very short lived heat though.
Yes, some dude on Netweather says Liverpool might go from ~40C to ~20C in three hours
And nothing is nailed on. A bit of cloud or a sudden storm and it’s just a major heat blast not an all time record
I’d say the chances of 40C somewhere are 30% and the chances of breaking the record 50%
The Met Office forecasts are also still edging upwards. Heathrow now forecast to touch 39C, Sheffield 36C.
I don't think your odds are too far out.
The government should be handing out advice from today
40C or not, record or not, this is far more widespread than 2019 - stretching quite far north. And lasting 2-3 days with scary not-very-minimal temps. Few people in the UK will have experienced these temps without aircon in their holiday hotels
I have. They’re not funny
I recall sitting in a remote windless, fanless safari camp in South Luangwa Zambia as it went way over 40C one afternoon. My only recourse was to dunk cloth in cold water then drape it over my naked body - and sit there in the shade, praying for it to go
You know all that "stay at home" stuff we had during the pandemic? I remember thinking at the time: pretty soon something will happen which will actually justify staying at home and the government, of course, won't bother to give the right advice. Well, here we are. They ought to be telling everyone to stay at home on Monday and Tuesday, and they're not. Not so far anyway.
I have a proof on Tuesday. I am not sure that a dress shirt, waistcoat, tails, gown and woolen trousers are quite the thing for this but I will put a horsehair wig on my head just in case.
If it's in Edinbuyrgh, at least the MO forecast is cloudy, and 26 at present. THough earlyish days.
I feel like it's still Mordaunt who has the edge. If they want a fresh start she works, but she does not entirely lack experience so the Truss and Sunak contrasts are not as effective as against Badenoch. She's more normal seeming than Truss, and first impressions matter - member like her, and so sniping from Frost and others may not shake that.
The Frost stuff is so blatantly partisan - simultaneously 'offering' Badenoch a cabinet post in return for her votes - that even the deluded few who might take him seriously likely aren't convinced.
As I commented below, they really are the Judean People's Front Suicide Squad.
"That'll show em!"
Iain Duncan Smith, @trussliz supporter, on Mordaunt's lead in polls among Tory members and in being the candidate to best beat Labour: “The most important thing is not to look at what the polls say," he tells @BBCr4today
The bottom line is that any new Tory leader has to deal with the Tory right. You either have to win their support or dominate them. Note that Boris succeeded because he simultaneously did both. May was crushed by them. Arguably Cameron too.
Mourdant or Sunak will be battling them throughout their Premierships. Do they have the strength to overcome them? That’s not clear today, but what is obvious is that they have no choice now but to take them on.
The truly insane thing is that both Sunak and Mordaunt are of the right, and clearly so. The other wing of Centrist One Nation Tories has long been purged.
The one consistent aspect of this contest is that the Tories are swinging to the right. It’s just a question of how far. Cameronism is loooong dead. Today it’s all about tax cuts and scapegoats.
That is not a correct reading of Mordaunt.
There's a reason Labour fear her. And it is not because she is a one-size-fits-all right wing loon.
I don’t think Labour should fear her. She is an empty vessel and it looks like her own party will do for her.
All those scoffing at possible very high temperatures now look quite foolish, perhaps
BBC predicting 40C on Monday in places
Who has been scoffing? I have pointed out, correctly, uncertainty in modelling. And a reminder, it hasn’t happened yet. No question it will be hot, and quite possibly see the U.K. record go. Will be very short lived heat though.
Yes, some dude on Netweather says Liverpool might go from ~40C to ~20C in three hours
And nothing is nailed on. A bit of cloud or a sudden storm and it’s just a major heat blast not an all time record
I’d say the chances of 40C somewhere are 30% and the chances of breaking the record 50%
How is a wild guess any the more convincing by making up some percentages and putting them underneath?
Unless any of us have expertise in medium range meteorology, all we can do is assess the range of forecasts being made. Scouring the internet for the absolutely highest possible forecast you can find probably isn't the most reliable method of assessment, however.
Because those aren’t the absolute highest possible forecasts, I’m afraid, and because I’m good at speed of reasoning, and you’re not. A fact which seems to annoy you, existentially.
This is interesting. An AEP piece on Sunak's plans for UK debt.
"The latest trick is to a claim that the interest burden is suddenly vaulting into the stratosphere due to inflation, more than doubling to £87bn a year as the bill rises on index-linked Gilts.
This mixes up actual payments with the accounting accrual cost of bonds that mostly do not mature until deep into the 2030s, and will be repaid from an equally-inflated base of nominal GDP, at no net loss."
So AEP is confident that the UK will not face another crisis, whether a war or a pandemic or anything else unexpected for the next 20 years is he? Well that's a relief. There is no need to save or even create headroom for more borrowing if everything is going to be just fine.
All those scoffing at possible very high temperatures now look quite foolish, perhaps
BBC predicting 40C on Monday in places
Who has been scoffing? I have pointed out, correctly, uncertainty in modelling. And a reminder, it hasn’t happened yet. No question it will be hot, and quite possibly see the U.K. record go. Will be very short lived heat though.
Yes, some dude on Netweather says Liverpool might go from ~40C to ~20C in three hours
And nothing is nailed on. A bit of cloud or a sudden storm and it’s just a major heat blast not an all time record
I’d say the chances of 40C somewhere are 30% and the chances of breaking the record 50%
How is a wild guess any the more convincing by making up some percentages and putting them underneath?
Unless any of us have expertise in medium range meteorology, all we can do is assess the range of forecasts being made. Scouring the internet for the absolutely highest possible forecast you can find probably isn't the most reliable method of assessment, however.
Because those aren’t the absolute highest possible forecasts, I’m afraid, and because I’m good at speed of reasoning, and you’re not. A fact which seems to annoy you, existentially.
Speed reasoning lol. You just made up numbers.
You have a go
What are the chances, Sunday-Wednesday, of
1. The all time UK high temp record going
2. Somewhere in the UK exceeding 40C
It is going to be hot. Enjoy it and stop being so doomy negative.
All those scoffing at possible very high temperatures now look quite foolish, perhaps
BBC predicting 40C on Monday in places
Who has been scoffing? I have pointed out, correctly, uncertainty in modelling. And a reminder, it hasn’t happened yet. No question it will be hot, and quite possibly see the U.K. record go. Will be very short lived heat though.
Yes, some dude on Netweather says Liverpool might go from ~40C to ~20C in three hours
And nothing is nailed on. A bit of cloud or a sudden storm and it’s just a major heat blast not an all time record
I’d say the chances of 40C somewhere are 30% and the chances of breaking the record 50%
The Met Office forecasts are also still edging upwards. Heathrow now forecast to touch 39C, Sheffield 36C.
I don't think your odds are too far out.
The government should be handing out advice from today
40C or not, record or not, this is far more widespread than 2019 - stretching quite far north. And lasting 2-3 days with scary not-very-minimal temps. Few people in the UK will have experienced these temps without aircon in their holiday hotels
I have. They’re not funny
I recall sitting in a remote windless, fanless safari camp in South Luangwa Zambia as it went way over 40C one afternoon. My only recourse was to dunk cloth in cold water then drape it over my naked body - and sit there in the shade, praying for it to go
You know all that "stay at home" stuff we had during the pandemic? I remember thinking at the time: pretty soon something will happen which will actually justify staying at home and the
government, of course, won't bother to give the right advice. Well, here we are. They ought to
be telling everyone to stay at home on Monday and Tuesday, and they're not. Not so far anyway.
If you have an air conditioned office nearby, you would be better off there than at home. Ditto anywhere nearby with a/c.
All those scoffing at possible very high temperatures now look quite foolish, perhaps
BBC predicting 40C on Monday in places
Who has been scoffing? I have pointed out, correctly, uncertainty in modelling. And a reminder, it hasn’t happened yet. No question it will be hot, and quite possibly see the U.K. record go. Will be very short lived heat though.
Yes, some dude on Netweather says Liverpool might go from ~40C to ~20C in three hours
And nothing is nailed on. A bit of cloud or a sudden storm and it’s just a major heat blast not an all time record
I’d say the chances of 40C somewhere are 30% and the chances of breaking the record 50%
How is a wild guess any the more convincing by making up some percentages and putting them underneath?
Unless any of us have expertise in medium range meteorology, all we can do is assess the range of forecasts being made. Scouring the internet for the absolutely highest possible forecast you can find probably isn't the most reliable method of assessment, however.
Because those aren’t the absolute highest possible forecasts, I’m afraid, and because I’m good at speed of reasoning, and you’re not. A fact which seems to annoy you, existentially.
Speed reasoning lol. You just made up numbers.
You have a go
What are the chances, Sunday-Wednesday, of
1. The all time UK high temp record going
2. Somewhere in the UK exceeding 40C
I have no idea, because I don't just make up numbers.
All those scoffing at possible very high temperatures now look quite foolish, perhaps
BBC predicting 40C on Monday in places
Who has been scoffing? I have pointed out, correctly, uncertainty in modelling. And a reminder, it hasn’t happened yet. No question it will be hot, and quite possibly see the U.K. record go. Will be very short lived heat though.
Yes, some dude on Netweather says Liverpool might go from ~40C to ~20C in three hours
And nothing is nailed on. A bit of cloud or a sudden storm and it’s just a major heat blast not an all time record
I’d say the chances of 40C somewhere are 30% and the chances of breaking the record 50%
The Met Office forecasts are also still edging upwards. Heathrow now forecast to touch 39C, Sheffield 36C.
I don't think your odds are too far out.
The government should be handing out advice from today
40C or not, record or not, this is far more widespread than 2019 - stretching quite far north. And lasting 2-3 days with scary not-very-minimal temps. Few people in the UK will have experienced these temps without aircon in their holiday hotels
I have. They’re not funny
I recall sitting in a remote windless, fanless safari camp in South Luangwa Zambia as it went way over 40C one afternoon. My only recourse was to dunk cloth in cold water then drape it over my naked body - and sit there in the shade, praying for it to go
I've just set up a home made swamp evaporator in my sitting room.
It's a large wet towel draped over a free standing towel rail hanging into a bucket of cold water with a fan behind the towel. I don't know whether it will work. With low humidity it should. I'm preparing a cool room for Monday/Tuesday. My fallback is either Tesco (a 100 yards away) or my car with the aircon on.
Starting to ponder if the Tory Party is beyond saving in 2024. If it wasn’t for the damage that an ERG-backed Truss could do in the next 18 months I’d wonder if it would be best for them to reap the whirlwind under Truss in 2024, then bring in Penny or Kemi to rebuild the party in opposition.
All those scoffing at possible very high temperatures now look quite foolish, perhaps
BBC predicting 40C on Monday in places
Who has been scoffing? I have pointed out, correctly, uncertainty in modelling. And a reminder, it hasn’t happened yet. No question it will be hot, and quite possibly see the U.K. record go. Will be very short lived heat though.
Yes, some dude on Netweather says Liverpool might go from ~40C to ~20C in three hours
And nothing is nailed on. A bit of cloud or a sudden storm and it’s just a major heat blast not an all time record
I’d say the chances of 40C somewhere are 30% and the chances of breaking the record 50%
How is a wild guess any the more convincing by making up some percentages and putting them underneath?
Unless any of us have expertise in medium range meteorology, all we can do is assess the range of forecasts being made. Scouring the internet for the absolutely highest possible forecast you can find probably isn't the most reliable method of assessment, however.
Because those aren’t the absolute highest possible forecasts, I’m afraid, and because I’m good at speed of reasoning, and you’re not. A fact which seems to annoy you, existentially.
Speed reasoning lol. You just made up numbers.
You have a go
What are the chances, Sunday-Wednesday, of
1. The all time UK high temp record going
2. Somewhere in the UK exceeding 40C
50% chance of the 38.7°C UK record being broken. 10% chance of 40°C imo.
All those scoffing at possible very high temperatures now look quite foolish, perhaps
BBC predicting 40C on Monday in places
Who has been scoffing? I have pointed out, correctly, uncertainty in modelling. And a reminder, it hasn’t happened yet. No question it will be hot, and quite possibly see the U.K. record go. Will be very short lived heat though.
Yes, some dude on Netweather says Liverpool might go from ~40C to ~20C in three hours
And nothing is nailed on. A bit of cloud or a sudden storm and it’s just a major heat blast not an all time record
I’d say the chances of 40C somewhere are 30% and the chances of breaking the record 50%
It's worth remembering that weather observation sites are generally chosen to avoid the worst in impacts of the urban heat island effect where possible. So if 39C is measured at Kew Gardens, it will likely have breached 40C in more concrete areas of London.
All those scoffing at possible very high temperatures now look quite foolish, perhaps
BBC predicting 40C on Monday in places
Who has been scoffing? I have pointed out, correctly, uncertainty in modelling. And a reminder, it hasn’t happened yet. No question it will be hot, and quite possibly see the U.K. record go. Will be very short lived heat though.
Yes, some dude on Netweather says Liverpool might go from ~40C to ~20C in three hours
And nothing is nailed on. A bit of cloud or a sudden storm and it’s just a major heat blast not an all time record
I’d say the chances of 40C somewhere are 30% and the chances of breaking the record 50%
How is a wild guess any the more convincing by making up some percentages and putting them underneath?
Unless any of us have expertise in medium range meteorology, all we can do is assess the range of forecasts being made. Scouring the internet for the absolutely highest possible forecast you can find probably isn't the most reliable method of assessment, however.
Because those aren’t the absolute highest possible forecasts, I’m afraid, and because I’m good at speed of reasoning, and you’re not. A fact which seems to annoy you, existentially.
Speed reasoning lol. You just made up numbers.
You have a go
What are the chances, Sunday-Wednesday, of
1. The all time UK high temp record going
2. Somewhere in the UK exceeding 40C
It is going to be hot. Enjoy it and stop being so doomy negative.
On this, like many non-European issues, I can wholeheartedly agree with you.
Get some sunscreen, wear a sun hat if going out, stay hydrated and have some ice cream. And enjoy it FFS.
All those scoffing at possible very high temperatures now look quite foolish, perhaps
BBC predicting 40C on Monday in places
Who has been scoffing? I have pointed out, correctly, uncertainty in modelling. And a reminder, it hasn’t happened yet. No question it will be hot, and quite possibly see the U.K. record go. Will be very short lived heat though.
Yes, some dude on Netweather says Liverpool might go from ~40C to ~20C in three hours
And nothing is nailed on. A bit of cloud or a sudden storm and it’s just a major heat blast not an all time record
I’d say the chances of 40C somewhere are 30% and the chances of breaking the record 50%
The Met Office forecasts are also still edging upwards. Heathrow now forecast to touch 39C, Sheffield 36C.
I don't think your odds are too far out.
The government should be handing out advice from today
40C or not, record or not, this is far more widespread than 2019 - stretching quite far north. And lasting 2-3 days with scary not-very-minimal temps. Few people in the UK will have experienced these temps without aircon in their holiday hotels
I have. They’re not funny
I recall sitting in a remote windless, fanless safari camp in South Luangwa Zambia as it went way over 40C one afternoon. My only recourse was to dunk cloth in cold water then drape it over my naked body - and sit there in the shade, praying for it to go
You know all that "stay at home" stuff we had during the pandemic? I remember thinking at the time: pretty soon something will happen which will actually justify staying at home and the government, of course, won't bother to give the right advice. Well, here we are. They ought to be telling everyone to stay at home on Monday and Tuesday, and they're not. Not so far anyway.
I have a proof on Tuesday. I am not sure that a dress shirt, waistcoat, tails, gown and woolen trousers are quite the thing for this but I will put a horsehair wig on my head just in case.
If it's in Edinbuyrgh, at least the MO forecast is cloudy, and 26 at present. THough earlyish days.
I'll do a deal with my opponent. The last one to pass out wins. Assuming the judge is compus mentus at that point.
All those scoffing at possible very high temperatures now look quite foolish, perhaps
BBC predicting 40C on Monday in places
Who has been scoffing? I have pointed out, correctly, uncertainty in modelling. And a reminder, it hasn’t happened yet. No question it will be hot, and quite possibly see the U.K. record go. Will be very short lived heat though.
Yes, some dude on Netweather says Liverpool might go from ~40C to ~20C in three hours
And nothing is nailed on. A bit of cloud or a sudden storm and it’s just a major heat blast not an all time record
I’d say the chances of 40C somewhere are 30% and the chances of breaking the record 50%
How is a wild guess any the more convincing by making up some percentages and putting them underneath?
Unless any of us have expertise in medium range meteorology, all we can do is assess the range of forecasts being made. Scouring the internet for the absolutely highest possible forecast you can find probably isn't the most reliable method of assessment, however.
Because those aren’t the absolute highest possible forecasts, I’m afraid, and because I’m good at speed of reasoning, and you’re not. A fact which seems to annoy you, existentially.
Speed reasoning lol. You just made up numbers.
Well it's undoubtedly true that he has greater facility for making stuff up at speed than most of us.
All those scoffing at possible very high temperatures now look quite foolish, perhaps
BBC predicting 40C on Monday in places
Who has been scoffing? I have pointed out, correctly, uncertainty in modelling. And a reminder, it hasn’t happened yet. No question it will be hot, and quite possibly see the U.K. record go. Will be very short lived heat though.
Yes, some dude on Netweather says Liverpool might go from ~40C to ~20C in three hours
And nothing is nailed on. A bit of cloud or a sudden storm and it’s just a major heat blast not an all time record
I’d say the chances of 40C somewhere are 30% and the chances of breaking the record 50%
The Met Office forecasts are also still edging upwards. Heathrow now forecast to touch 39C, Sheffield 36C.
I don't think your odds are too far out.
The government should be handing out advice from today
40C or not, record or not, this is far more widespread than 2019 - stretching quite far north. And lasting 2-3 days with scary not-very-minimal temps. Few people in the UK will have experienced these temps without aircon in their holiday hotels
I have. They’re not funny
I recall sitting in a remote windless, fanless safari camp in South Luangwa Zambia as it went way over 40C one afternoon. My only recourse was to dunk cloth in cold water then drape it over my naked body - and sit there in the shade, praying for it to go
I've just set up a home made swamp evaporator in my sitting room.
It's a large wet towel draped over a free standing towel rail hanging into a bucket of cold water with a fan behind the towel. I don't know whether it will work. With low humidity it should. I'm preparing a cool room for Monday/Tuesday. My fallback is either Tesco (a 100 yards away) or my car with the aircon on.
Are you going to vent the room so the moisture can escape ?
All those scoffing at possible very high temperatures now look quite foolish, perhaps
BBC predicting 40C on Monday in places
Who has been scoffing? I have pointed out, correctly, uncertainty in modelling. And a reminder, it hasn’t happened yet. No question it will be hot, and quite possibly see the U.K. record go. Will be very short lived heat though.
Yes, some dude on Netweather says Liverpool might go from ~40C to ~20C in three hours
And nothing is nailed on. A bit of cloud or a sudden storm and it’s just a major heat blast not an all time record
I’d say the chances of 40C somewhere are 30% and the chances of breaking the record 50%
How is a wild guess any the more convincing by making up some percentages and putting them underneath?
Unless any of us have expertise in medium range meteorology, all we can do is assess the range of forecasts being made. Scouring the internet for the absolutely highest possible forecast you can find probably isn't the most reliable method of assessment, however.
Because those aren’t the absolute highest possible forecasts, I’m afraid, and because I’m good at speed of reasoning, and you’re not. A fact which seems to annoy you, existentially.
Speed reasoning lol. You just made up numbers.
You have a go
What are the chances, Sunday-Wednesday, of
1. The all time UK high temp record going
2. Somewhere in the UK exceeding 40C
50% chance of the 38.7°C UK record being broken. 10% chance of 40°C imo.
We agree, nearly. I have a higher chance of 40C - 30%
If the ERG are only 60 strong and several were already supporting Truss and say 23-24 of them (vast majority?) were Braverman then how many will listen and switch from both her and Badenoch?
I think Badenoch voters will stay fairly loyal, not entirely, so let's say she picks up 3-4 Braverman and sheds 10 ERG to Truss then we have something like 97 votes for Truss.
The question then is were the Tugendhat votes go (probably a mix of Sunak and Mordaunt) and Kemi's votes probably mainly go to Truss.
Basically, I think Truss overtakes Mordaunt once Kemi is eliminated whilst Sunak almost certainly makes it to 115 votes and should make it to 120+.
So it's probably Sunak v. Truss. Penny is in trouble.
Then it is likely PM Truss and the Tories in deep trouble
The bottom line is that any new Tory leader has to deal with the Tory right. You either have to win their support or dominate them. Note that Boris succeeded because he simultaneously did both. May was crushed by them. Arguably Cameron too.
Mourdant or Sunak will be battling them throughout their Premierships. Do they have the strength to overcome them? That’s not clear today, but what is obvious is that they have no choice now but to take them on.
The truly insane thing is that both Sunak and Mordaunt are of the right, and clearly so. The other wing of Centrist One Nation Tories has long been purged.
The one consistent aspect of this contest is that the Tories are swinging to the right. It’s just a question of how far. Cameronism is loooong dead. Today it’s all about tax cuts and scapegoats.
That is not a correct reading of Mordaunt.
There's a reason Labour fear her. And it is not because she is a one-size-fits-all right wing loon.
I don’t think Labour should fear her. She is an empty vessel and it looks like her own party will do for her.
The bottom line is that any new Tory leader has to deal with the Tory right. You either have to win their support or dominate them. Note that Boris succeeded because he simultaneously did both. May was crushed by them. Arguably Cameron too.
Mourdant or Sunak will be battling them throughout their Premierships. Do they have the strength to overcome them? That’s not clear today, but what is obvious is that they have no choice now but to take them on.
The truly insane thing is that both Sunak and Mordaunt are of the right, and clearly so. The other wing of Centrist One Nation Tories has long been purged.
The one consistent aspect of this contest is that the Tories are swinging to the right. It’s just a question of how far. Cameronism is loooong dead. Today it’s all about tax cuts and scapegoats.
That is not a correct reading of Mordaunt.
There's a reason Labour fear her. And it is not because she is a one-size-fits-all right wing loon.
I don’t think Labour should fear her. She is an empty vessel and it looks like her own party will do for her.
I still think that she is the best chance of Tories maintaining a majority. In order of probability of winning the next GE, I would put:
Mordaunt Sunak Tugenhadt Truss Badenoch
With Mordaunt the only one above the waterline of a majority.
More interesting is that several new ministers have quite limited political experience.
I know you're talking about Estonia, but on the more general point, has there been any research on how much difference experience makes to effectiveness in ministerial posts? Especially in the UK system ministers get shuffled around so often that they're almost always inexperienced in their departmental area anyway. I suppose general political experience helps avoid vote-losing policy proposals, and experience dealing with the civil service is probably good for being able to effectively get your ideas through. And from an external point of view the PM can test whether ministers are any good in minor posts and avoid promoting the duffers. But I'm not 100% sure experience is a mandatory prerequisite for being able to be a good minister.
Where does Gove go after Kemi is eliminated? That is one of the big questions.
You have to suspect not to Truss, given the Continuity BoJo nature of her campaign, though she would be wise to try and cultivate him to broaden her mandate with the party. I suppose they could make some form of unholy alliance though I’m not sure Truss is tactically smart enough to see the benefits in that.
I don’t know anything about the relationship between Gove and Mordaunt or Gove and Sunak so can’t really comment on that. He could play a crucial role in the next few days, though.
All those scoffing at possible very high temperatures now look quite foolish, perhaps
BBC predicting 40C on Monday in places
Who has been scoffing? I have pointed out, correctly, uncertainty in modelling. And a reminder, it hasn’t happened yet. No question it will be hot, and quite possibly see the U.K. record go. Will be very short lived heat though.
Yes, some dude on Netweather says Liverpool might go from ~40C to ~20C in three hours
And nothing is nailed on. A bit of cloud or a sudden storm and it’s just a major heat blast not an all time record
I’d say the chances of 40C somewhere are 30% and the chances of breaking the record 50%
The Met Office forecasts are also still edging upwards. Heathrow now forecast to touch 39C, Sheffield 36C.
I don't think your odds are too far out.
The government should be handing out advice from today
40C or not, record or not, this is far more widespread than 2019 - stretching quite far north. And lasting 2-3 days with scary not-very-minimal temps. Few people in the UK will have experienced these temps without aircon in their holiday hotels
I have. They’re not funny
I recall sitting in a remote windless, fanless safari camp in South Luangwa Zambia as it went way over 40C one afternoon. My only recourse was to dunk cloth in cold water then drape it over my naked body - and sit there in the shade, praying for it to go
I've just set up a home made swamp evaporator in my sitting room.
It's a large wet towel draped over a free standing towel rail hanging into a bucket of cold water with a fan behind the towel. I don't know whether it will work. With low humidity it should. I'm preparing a cool room for Monday/Tuesday. My fallback is either Tesco (a 100 yards away) or my car with the aircon on.
Are you going to vent the room so the moisture can escape ?
Yes I've left the door into the hall open but closed the blinds. It's an experiment. I'll report.
The gold standard model, the ECMWF, has raw output minimums of 23C on Tuesday morning and highs of 37C on Tuesday - with 850 hPa temps of 23-24C widely over England.
That raw output suggests maximums of 39-40C most likely Heathrow or Northolt.
Kudos to @TimS by the way. He was the first PB-er to alert us to this possible heatwave, at least a week ago, maybe more. He was subject to much derision, but here we are
I believe he’s an English winemaker manque, so he is probably very focused on this stuff
All those scoffing at possible very high temperatures now look quite foolish, perhaps
BBC predicting 40C on Monday in places
Who has been scoffing? I have pointed out, correctly, uncertainty in modelling. And a reminder, it hasn’t happened yet. No question it will be hot, and quite possibly see the U.K. record go. Will be very short lived heat though.
Yes, some dude on Netweather says Liverpool might go from ~40C to ~20C in three hours
And nothing is nailed on. A bit of cloud or a sudden storm and it’s just a major heat blast not an all time record
I’d say the chances of 40C somewhere are 30% and the chances of breaking the record 50%
How is a wild guess any the more convincing by making up some percentages and putting them underneath?
Unless any of us have expertise in medium range meteorology, all we can do is assess the range of forecasts being made. Scouring the internet for the absolutely highest possible forecast you can find probably isn't the most reliable method of assessment, however.
Because those aren’t the absolute highest possible forecasts, I’m afraid, and because I’m good at speed of reasoning, and you’re not. A fact which seems to annoy you, existentially.
Speed reasoning lol. You just made up numbers.
You have a go
What are the chances, Sunday-Wednesday, of
1. The all time UK high temp record going
2. Somewhere in the UK exceeding 40C
50% chance of the 38.7°C UK record being broken. 10% chance of 40°C imo.
We agree, nearly. I have a higher chance of 40C - 30%
So long as we don't opt for 0% or 100% we cannot be proved wrong!
(Of course the 'crisis' is diminishing - yesterday you said: "43C across central England. Breaking the record by 5 degrees. Like a Bob Beamon jump in climate")
Why Sunak embarrassed himself at his launch trying to suck up to Boris I dont know. The members who like Boris a lot aren't likely to forgive him, he may as well avoid the over the top praise.
Well he had to justify being the main support for the inveterate liar for the last 3 years, didn't he? Otherwise he might look a tad foolish.
All those scoffing at possible very high temperatures now look quite foolish, perhaps
BBC predicting 40C on Monday in places
Who has been scoffing? I have pointed out, correctly, uncertainty in modelling. And a reminder, it hasn’t happened yet. No question it will be hot, and quite possibly see the U.K. record go. Will be very short lived heat though.
Yes, some dude on Netweather says Liverpool might go from ~40C to ~20C in three hours
And nothing is nailed on. A bit of cloud or a sudden storm and it’s just a major heat blast not an all time record
I’d say the chances of 40C somewhere are 30% and the chances of breaking the record 50%
How is a wild guess any the more convincing by making up some percentages and putting them underneath?
Unless any of us have expertise in medium range meteorology, all we can do is assess the range of forecasts being made. Scouring the internet for the absolutely highest possible forecast you can find probably isn't the most reliable method of assessment, however.
Because those aren’t the absolute highest possible forecasts, I’m afraid, and because I’m good at speed of reasoning, and you’re not. A fact which seems to annoy you, existentially.
Speed reasoning lol. You just made up numbers.
You have a go
What are the chances, Sunday-Wednesday, of
1. The all time UK high temp record going
2. Somewhere in the UK exceeding 40C
50% chance of the 38.7°C UK record being broken. 10% chance of 40°C imo.
We agree, nearly. I have a higher chance of 40C - 30%
So long as we don't opt for 0% or 100% we cannot be proved wrong!
(Of course the 'crisis' is diminishing - yesterday you said: "43C across central England. Breaking the record by 5 degrees. Like a Bob Beamon jump in climate")
Please provide the entire comment for context. This is quite tiresome
The bottom line is that any new Tory leader has to deal with the Tory right. You either have to win their support or dominate them. Note that Boris succeeded because he simultaneously did both. May was crushed by them. Arguably Cameron too.
Mourdant or Sunak will be battling them throughout their Premierships. Do they have the strength to overcome them? That’s not clear today, but what is obvious is that they have no choice now but to take them on.
The truly insane thing is that both Sunak and Mordaunt are of the right, and clearly so. The other wing of Centrist One Nation Tories has long been purged.
The one consistent aspect of this contest is that the Tories are swinging to the right. It’s just a question of how far. Cameronism is loooong dead. Today it’s all about tax cuts and scapegoats.
That is not a correct reading of Mordaunt.
There's a reason Labour fear her. And it is not because she is a one-size-fits-all right wing loon.
I don’t think Labour should fear her. She is an empty vessel and it looks like her own party will do for her.
The bottom line is that any new Tory leader has to deal with the Tory right. You either have to win their support or dominate them. Note that Boris succeeded because he simultaneously did both. May was crushed by them. Arguably Cameron too.
Mourdant or Sunak will be battling them throughout their Premierships. Do they have the strength to overcome them? That’s not clear today, but what is obvious is that they have no choice now but to take them on.
The truly insane thing is that both Sunak and Mordaunt are of the right, and clearly so. The other wing of Centrist One Nation Tories has long been purged.
The one consistent aspect of this contest is that the Tories are swinging to the right. It’s just a question of how far. Cameronism is loooong dead. Today it’s all about tax cuts and scapegoats.
That is not a correct reading of Mordaunt.
There's a reason Labour fear her. And it is not because she is a one-size-fits-all right wing loon.
I don’t think Labour should fear her. She is an empty vessel and it looks like her own party will do for her.
I still think that she is the best chance of Tories maintaining a majority. In order of probability of winning the next GE, I would put:
Mordaunt Sunak Tugenhadt Truss Badenoch
With Mordaunt the only one above the waterline of a majority.
I think you’re wrong. Politics is about timing. There would have been moments when a Mourdaunt premiership would have been something to worry about, but now is not that moment. The ideal Tory leader is someone able to navigate the economic storm. That means a strong economic vision and the ability to control the right. That is not Mordaunt. Now is not the time for a PR specialist. It’s not 2005.
The contest which would most amuse the public during August would be Truss v Mordaunt. The best chance of the Tories holding their own at the next election and having a reasonable government until then is Sunak.
Starmer's dream result is Mordaunt and Truss taking chunks out of each other over the summer followed by a Truss victory.
It is difficult to judge actually.
Remember when the Tories first chose Thatcher as leader , Labour then reacted with glee.
IMO, Starmer should not be worrying about a "dream result" but concentrating on making himself, his team and his policies much more credible.
Thatcher was first elected Leader of the Opposition not PM.
In 1979 she won mainly because the Labour government was so useless on the economy, Callaghan still beat her as preferred PM
And she'd have likely been a one-term PM were it not for the Falklands.
Even before the Falklands she had moved ahead but helped by the SDP splitting the Foot Labour vote
This is interesting. An AEP piece on Sunak's plans for UK debt.
"The latest trick is to a claim that the interest burden is suddenly vaulting into the stratosphere due to inflation, more than doubling to £87bn a year as the bill rises on index-linked Gilts.
This mixes up actual payments with the accounting accrual cost of bonds that mostly do not mature until deep into the 2030s, and will be repaid from an equally-inflated base of nominal GDP, at no net loss."
So AEP is confident that the UK will not face another crisis, whether a war or a pandemic or anything else unexpected for the next 20 years is he? Well that's a relief. There is no need to save or even create headroom for more borrowing if everything is going to be just fine.
Which is an interesting point of view, from someone who’s predicted 47 of the last three crises.
The bottom line is that any new Tory leader has to deal with the Tory right. You either have to win their support or dominate them. Note that Boris succeeded because he simultaneously did both. May was crushed by them. Arguably Cameron too.
Mourdant or Sunak will be battling them throughout their Premierships. Do they have the strength to overcome them? That’s not clear today, but what is obvious is that they have no choice now but to take them on.
The truly insane thing is that both Sunak and Mordaunt are of the right, and clearly so. The other wing of Centrist One Nation Tories has long been purged.
The one consistent aspect of this contest is that the Tories are swinging to the right. It’s just a question of how far. Cameronism is loooong dead. Today it’s all about tax cuts and scapegoats.
That is not a correct reading of Mordaunt.
There's a reason Labour fear her. And it is not because she is a one-size-fits-all right wing loon.
She's the only halfway human candidate, with potential electoral appeal as a real person. Yet the Tories are going to destroy her and drag her name through the mud.
I feel like it's still Mordaunt who has the edge. If they want a fresh start she works, but she does not entirely lack experience so the Truss and Sunak contrasts are not as effective as against Badenoch. She's more normal seeming than Truss, and first impressions matter - member like her, and so sniping from Frost and others may not shake that.
The Frost stuff is so blatantly partisan - simultaneously 'offering' Badenoch a cabinet post in return for her votes - that even the deluded few who might take him seriously likely aren't convinced.
If the ERG are only 60 strong and several were already supporting Truss and say 23-24 of them (vast majority?) were Braverman then how many will listen and switch from both her and Badenoch?
I think Badenoch voters will stay fairly loyal, not entirely, so let's say she picks up 3-4 Braverman and sheds 10 ERG to Truss then we have something like 97 votes for Truss.
The question then is were the Tugendhat votes go (probably a mix of Sunak and Mordaunt) and Kemi's votes probably mainly go to Truss.
Basically, I think Truss overtakes Mordaunt once Kemi is eliminated whilst Sunak almost certainly makes it to 115 votes and should make it to 120+.
So it's probably Sunak v. Truss. Penny is in trouble.
Edit: this assumes majority of ERG (e.g. c. 35 votes) are currently down under Badenoch and Braverman and not Truss and will all obey the switch. It also assumes that the count of 60 ERG is correct. Further, that virtually none to to Mordaunt.
If any of that is wrong, then it could still be very close between Mordaunt and Truss on MP votes.
Quote from the Telegraph:
"In a letter seen by The Telegraph, Mr Francois – who has already declared for Ms Truss – said that, at a meeting of the ERG on Wednesday, “we did overwhelmingly agree that there were two candidates who we felt stood out among all the others, namely Suella Braverman and Liz Truss”.
He added: “While nearly all members of the group were backing either one or the other, we also agreed collectively that, if only one got through to the next round, we would then row in behind that candidate, whichever one it might be.”"
ie Nearly all members of ERG are already supporting Truss or Braverman.
It's all going to hinge on how the Badenoch vote splits - and that is hard to tell. Truss will probably get more of it than Mordaunt - but will she get enough more?
Sunak and Mordaunt voted Leave and Truss voted Remain, yet in a choice between the three the ERG will go for Truss?
She's the right choice for them. 👍
This isn't 2016. Yes Truss voted Remain but since then she seems to have authentically (not just saying it now as a flag of convenience like Hunt did) accepted the result and has worked hard for years to maximise the returns for the UK of an independent trade policy. Which means staying out of the EU's CU etc and not returning to it as many want. Her NI Protocol Bill solves the NI issue very nicely too, from a UK perspective, even if the EU aren't happy and fits in with having NI gain the advantages of UK trade policy too.
Unless Truss does an about face on trade etc which she has ran on for many years now, she hold a position that is very sound for the ERG.
Sunak OTOH has been repeatedly said in the papers to be much more of a so-called "realist" who wants a "compromise". That is not the ERG position and quite rightly because as Theresa May showed when the UK is in a position of seeking a "compromise" that means the UK making all the compromises. A genuine compromise only occurs when, like with Boris and Frost (and Truss seems willing to do the same) the UK stands firmly behind its own position and only then genuine are negotiations are able to happen.
Boris and Frost standing firmly behind the UK’s position and genuinely negotiating… is that the process that produced the broken and unworkable NI Protocol?
LIVIVO Portable Powerful Evaporative Air Cooler AC With Remote Control - Anti Dust Filter - 3 Speed Settings - 120° Oscillating Swing Function (White) https://amzn.eu/d/ikPPFMy
LIVIVO Portable Powerful Evaporative Air Cooler AC With Remote Control - Anti Dust Filter - 3 Speed Settings - 120° Oscillating Swing Function (White) https://amzn.eu/d/ikPPFMy
Are these any good for the hot weather?
It should help a bit since this period of hot weather will have low humidity, but it's worth being a bit wary as it will dump moisture into your home, which might cause issues when the weather cools down. Also, if your not careful with stopping sunlight heating your home up then it could make things worse, by adding humidity to the high temperatures.
It could help to understand how it works, which is very similarly to sweating. It takes energy to evaporate water, and so that will cool the temperature of your skin, or the air passing through the cooler. However, the more you do this, and the more humidity is in the air, the harder it becomes to evaporate more water. This is why high humidity and high temperature combined is lethal. It also means the energy from the heat is still in your home, and will be released again when the water vapour condenses.
A standard air conditioner works like a fridge, and actually removes the heat energy from your home.
This difference means you can use an evaporative cooler effectively only in certain conditions, and really only for a limited time period, while air conditioning can be used continuously, as long as you have a supply of electricity.
If the ERG are only 60 strong and several were already supporting Truss and say 23-24 of them (vast majority?) were Braverman then how many will listen and switch from both her and Badenoch?
I think Badenoch voters will stay fairly loyal, not entirely, so let's say she picks up 3-4 Braverman and sheds 10 ERG to Truss then we have something like 97 votes for Truss.
The question then is were the Tugendhat votes go (probably a mix of Sunak and Mordaunt) and Kemi's votes probably mainly go to Truss.
Basically, I think Truss overtakes Mordaunt once Kemi is eliminated whilst Sunak almost certainly makes it to 115 votes and should make it to 120+.
So it's probably Sunak v. Truss. Penny is in trouble.
Edit: this assumes majority of ERG (e.g. c. 35 votes) are currently down under Badenoch and Braverman and not Truss and will all obey the switch. It also assumes that the count of 60 ERG is correct. Further, that virtually none to to Mordaunt.
If any of that is wrong, then it could still be very close between Mordaunt and Truss on MP votes.
Quote from the Telegraph:
"In a letter seen by The Telegraph, Mr Francois – who has already declared for Ms Truss – said that, at a meeting of the ERG on Wednesday, “we did overwhelmingly agree that there were two candidates who we felt stood out among all the others, namely Suella Braverman and Liz Truss”.
He added: “While nearly all members of the group were backing either one or the other, we also agreed collectively that, if only one got through to the next round, we would then row in behind that candidate, whichever one it might be.”"
ie Nearly all members of ERG are already supporting Truss or Braverman.
It's all going to hinge on how the Badenoch vote splits - and that is hard to tell. Truss will probably get more of it than Mordaunt - but will she get enough more?
Sunak and Mordaunt voted Leave and Truss voted Remain, yet in a choice between the three the ERG will go for Truss?
She's the right choice for them. 👍
This isn't 2016. Yes Truss voted Remain but since then she seems to have authentically (not just saying it now as a flag of convenience like Hunt did) accepted the result and has worked hard for years to maximise the returns for the UK of an independent trade policy. Which means staying out of the EU's CU etc and not returning to it as many want. Her NI Protocol Bill solves the NI issue very nicely too, from a UK perspective, even if the EU aren't happy and fits in with having NI gain the advantages of UK trade policy too.
Unless Truss does an about face on trade etc which she has ran on for many years now, she hold a position that is very sound for the ERG.
Sunak OTOH has been repeatedly said in the papers to be much more of a so-called "realist" who wants a "compromise". That is not the ERG position and quite rightly because as Theresa May showed when the UK is in a position of seeking a "compromise" that means the UK making all the compromises. A genuine compromise only occurs when, like with Boris and Frost (and Truss seems willing to do the same) the UK stands firmly behind its own position and only then genuine are negotiations are able to happen.
Boris and Frost standing firmly behind the UK’s position and genuinely negotiating… is that the process that produced the broken and unworkable NI Protocol?
Aye, we've discussed this many times. That process got a far better and eminently easier to fix solution for NI than the backstop. Infinitely superior in every way. 👍
Far, far easier to dump or change the NI Protocol post-Brexit than it would ever be to dump or change the backstop. Agreeing the Protocol and going back to change it afterwards put solving the NI issue were it belonged - at the end of the process rather than the start of it.
Comments
Mourdant or Sunak will be battling them throughout their Premierships. Do they have the strength to overcome them? That’s not clear today, but what is obvious is that they have no choice now but to take them on.
‘Welcome to the indyref2 launch. Try not to get too excited.’ https://twitter.com/BrianSpanner1/status/1547630079160700931/photo/1
Hottest place that I have been was Darwin, building up to the rains. 40C and humid, with a budget that didn't stretch to AC.
Frost achieved more in his limited time in that one job than most politicians or officials will achieve in a career.
Boris Johnson has urged defeated Tory leadership candidates to back “anyone but Rishi”, The Times has learnt
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/91101146-03ba-11ed-aa15-45d37b45dc0d?shareToken=712bc9ac92f42b9a57abeb4625a1b40b
In 1979 she won mainly because the Labour government was so useless on the economy, Callaghan still beat her as preferred PM
"The latest trick is to a claim that the interest burden is suddenly vaulting into the stratosphere due to inflation, more than doubling to £87bn a year as the bill rises on index-linked Gilts.
This mixes up actual payments with the accounting accrual cost of bonds that mostly do not mature until deep into the 2030s, and will be repaid from an equally-inflated base of nominal GDP, at no net loss."
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/07/15/sunak-fundamentally-wrong-britain-does-not-need-another-george/
Other than the fact she spoke with a weird cadence nearly ten years ago, what has she said or done that is "ghastly"?
One Nation Tories in the Conservatives are as much a minority now as Blairites in Labour, even Starmer is more Brownite than Blairite
He wasn't around long, many MPs and the public probably dont really know him or will be influenced by his take on things. He was in and gone, what would he really know about what MPs should do?
So unlike others I'm not saying its weird he gets so much attention because he's crap or mediocre. That was irrelevant to my point which he is not much of a fixture in conservative politics. It'd be like a one hit wonder given the platform of the Beatles.
There's a reason Labour fear her. And it is not because she is a one-size-fits-all right wing loon.
Why Sunak embarrassed himself at his launch trying to suck up to Boris I dont know. The members who like Boris a lot aren't likely to forgive him, he may as well avoid the over the top praise.
More interesting is that several new ministers have quite limited political experience. The new Minister for Justice, Lea Danilson-Järg, for example, is the editor of Postimees, the largest national newspaper, while the new Minister of Culture, Piret Hartman, has been an under secretary at the ministry, but not an active political figure. The relatively new leader of the Social Democrats, Lauri Läänemets takes on the role of Minister of the Interior despite having had no previous ministerial experience. On the other hand the leader of the Conservative Party, Isamaa, Heli-Valdor Seder has not joined Läänemets and Kaja Kallas who is also the leader of her party, in the cabinet, which was a little unexpected and is seen as reflecting divisions within Isamaa.
Of the 15 members, seven are women and the ages range from 31 to 60, with an average of around 46. The government will be dissolved ahead of the next general election on March 5th, but with the continuing Russian aggression and considerable economic and social pressures, it is still going to be a busy time.
The latest economic report shows Estonia has overtaken Spain in GDP/capita and is closing on Italy and the UK. Although the news is generally good, there are several headwinds coming, of which the increasing mess in Russia is probably the most intractable. The number of war crimes committed by the brutal and occasionally shambolic armed forces of the Russian Federation in Ukraine should be a clear reminder that Russia will not back down unless it is made to do so. That is front and centre in the thinking of all the parties in the new government, and though we would wish it otherwise, most likely in the next government too.
What are the chances, Sunday-Wednesday, of
1. The all time UK high temp record going
2. Somewhere in the UK exceeding 40C
It's a large wet towel draped over a free standing towel rail hanging into a bucket of cold water with a fan behind the towel. I don't know whether it will work. With low humidity it should. I'm preparing a cool room for Monday/Tuesday. My fallback is either Tesco (a 100 yards away) or my car with the aircon on.
Get some sunscreen, wear a sun hat if going out, stay hydrated and have some ice cream. And enjoy it FFS.
Continuity Boris without the charisma.
Mordaunt
Sunak
Tugenhadt
Truss
Badenoch
With Mordaunt the only one above the waterline of a majority.
CON 29 (=)
LAB 40 (=)
LD 13 (-2)
GREEN 7 (+1)
REFUK 4 (+1)
More in @timesredbox https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1547847888998244358/photo/1
You have to suspect not to Truss, given the Continuity BoJo nature of her campaign, though she would be wise to try and cultivate him to broaden her mandate with the party. I suppose they could make some form of unholy alliance though I’m not sure Truss is tactically smart enough to see the benefits in that.
I don’t know anything about the relationship between Gove and Mordaunt or Gove and Sunak so can’t really comment on that. He could play a crucial role in the next few days, though.
If the Yes campaign is so rubbish, why are Unionists so scared of the referendum?
That raw output suggests maximums of 39-40C most likely Heathrow or Northolt.
Odds on that the record will go imo.
I believe he’s an English winemaker manque, so he is probably very focused on this stuff
(Of course the 'crisis' is diminishing - yesterday you said: "43C across central England. Breaking the record by 5 degrees. Like a Bob Beamon jump in climate")
I know who he was.....
Are these any good for the hot weather?
It could help to understand how it works, which is very similarly to sweating. It takes energy to evaporate water, and so that will cool the temperature of your skin, or the air passing through the cooler. However, the more you do this, and the more humidity is in the air, the harder it becomes to evaporate more water. This is why high humidity and high temperature combined is lethal. It also means the energy from the heat is still in your home, and will be released again when the water vapour condenses.
A standard air conditioner works like a fridge, and actually removes the heat energy from your home.
This difference means you can use an evaporative cooler effectively only in certain conditions, and really only for a limited time period, while air conditioning can be used continuously, as long as you have a supply of electricity.
Far, far easier to dump or change the NI Protocol post-Brexit than it would ever be to dump or change the backstop. Agreeing the Protocol and going back to change it afterwards put solving the NI issue were it belonged - at the end of the process rather than the start of it.
Great work there by Boris and Frost.