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Political Love Island – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,150
edited July 2022 in General
imagePolitical Love Island – politicalbetting.com

“Liar”. “Untrustworthy”. “Corrupt”. The highlights of a recent Boris Johnson word cloud. They are the reason the Tory party is choosing a new leader. That and the fact that he no longer appears to be an election winner. (We will come to that later.) 

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,723
    edited July 2022
    First? And many thanks for the observations. Though the menu doesn't seem much of an improvement on ostrich cloaca and wallaby toenails even today.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,610
    edited July 2022
    Truss now 2nd fav.

    Did I miss something?
  • The year is 2060.

    PM CorrectHorseBattery is completing his second term in office. He copied the strategy of Keir Starmer’s successful 2024 election run.

    Elsewhere Bart is still telling people about how he is infecting people around him with COVID-19
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Flat lined by para 2.

    Sure, she's a liar. Rather have her than bojo. The end.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    edited July 2022

    Truss now 2nd fav.

    Did I miss something?

    Pen 56 liz 22, both percent, itsez heer. Andrishi level with liz. Smarkets.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Farooq said:

    The debates will be make or break for Truss. She'll need to avoid being outshone by Badenoch while also looking more like a PM-in-waiting than Mordaunt or Sunak.

    True. But, that’s not going to happen. She read her launch address today off her mobile phone! And her team was only sending through half a sentence at a time 😆
    I didn’t get any likes for this, but it SO true! 🤣
    I just gave you a pity like… 😜
    A like is a like is a like as Aunt Gerty used to say. 2343 and counting. I’ve still got them coming in from the last thread, and I was doing my hair whilst posting there.
    A better measure would be number of likes divided by number of posts. Feel the quality...
    2348 likes divided by 6248 posts = feel the quality, feel the ❤️
    I've never checked that stat before. And looking at my "score" I'm honestly sickened at you people.
    6170/7276
    A thoughtful reply is worth 10x likes.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,289
    Interesting analysis. I am still hoping for Penny Mordaunt. I am not at all convinced she is Boris Johnson in a swimsuit (what a thought!). As I said previously, the mark of a leader is whom he/she brings in around them and the company they keep, andhow they create the conditions for those people to thrive. If Mordaunt is successful, she has only a couple of years to prove herself. If she does not then we will get PM Starmer, who may well be more to Cyclefree's taste.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,039
    The Tory leadership election is going to get blown away, as a news item, by the hot air of the scorchio weather

    We are now firmly into plausible prediction territory - Monday is 4 days away and some models are predicting 40C in.... MANCHESTER

    The overnight minima are equally amazing - 26C in some places. If you don't have aircon that is going to be horrid/dangerous

    There is still a reasonable chance the worst won't happen. But with each hour that passes and no substantial variation in the predictions, that becomes less likely. Brace
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,753
    Betfair next PM:-

    1.85 Penny Mordaunt 54%
    4.7 Liz Truss 21%
    4.8 Rishi Sunak 21%
    28 Kemi Badenoch
    150 Tom Tugendhat
    290 Dominic Raab
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,610
    Modesty prevents me from mentioning that I posted that Truss was the value bet earlier this afternoon when she was above 5.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,610
    edited July 2022
    Leon said:

    The Tory leadership election is going to get blown away, as a news item, by the hot air of the scorchio weather

    We are now firmly into plausible prediction territory - Monday is 4 days away and some models are predicting 40C in.... MANCHESTER

    The overnight minima are equally amazing - 26C in some places. If you don't have aircon that is going to be horrid/dangerous

    There is still a reasonable chance the worst won't happen. But with each hour that passes and no substantial variation in the predictions, that becomes less likely. Brace

    "Some models"?

    Are they the ones from Prof Ferguson?

  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Politician lies, Atlas shrugs.
    Cyclefree particularly not a Penny fan is my takeaway from this one.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,446
    Foxy said:

    The issue is I don’t think the “right” have the numbers to guarantee their own candidate through, contra some suggestions upthread.

    Do the maths yourself.

    1.
    Tugendhat’s votes will divide between Rishi or Mordaunt.

    2.
    Braverman’s votes will divide between Truss or Badenoch.

    Then, the problem for Group 2 is that hiding inside Truss and Badenoch’s tallies are various liberals and modernisers (like Gove) who will be tempted by Penny at the final crunch, which stops “the right” getting the numbers.

    The ERG, the anti wokests, fantasy tax cutters, the Tory right up and down the land - no candidate in top 2 this time. 🥳
    Don't count your chickens! It is quite possible still.
    I can only presume you have been at work all day and missed Penny’s election launch. 😇
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,753

    Truss now 2nd fav.

    Did I miss something?

    Probably punters anticipating Truss will mop up votes from Braverman's backers.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,039

    Leon said:

    The Tory leadership election is going to get blown away, as a news item, by the hot air of the scorchio weather

    We are now firmly into plausible prediction territory - Monday is 4 days away and some models are predicting 40C in.... MANCHESTER

    The overnight minima are equally amazing - 26C in some places. If you don't have aircon that is going to be horrid/dangerous

    There is still a reasonable chance the worst won't happen. But with each hour that passes and no substantial variation in the predictions, that becomes less likely. Brace

    "Some models"
    Do you doubt this?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,282
    Leon said:

    The Tory leadership election is going to get blown away, as a news item, by the hot air of the scorchio weather

    We are now firmly into plausible prediction territory - Monday is 4 days away and some models are predicting 40C in.... MANCHESTER

    The overnight minima are equally amazing - 26C in some places. If you don't have aircon that is going to be horrid/dangerous

    There is still a reasonable chance the worst won't happen. But with each hour that passes and no substantial variation in the predictions, that becomes less likely. Brace

    It looks like London is going to shit the bed on Monday.

    Not sure I want to risk train travel with those temperatures.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,610
    edited July 2022
    Members vote PM4PM, Tory MPs deal with the buyer's remorse.

    I guess I am not alone in thinking the whole line up of candidates to be PM is poor pickings.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,644
    FPT:

    James O’Brien. Hammer, nail:

    We’re probably at least two Conservative leadership elections away from one in which Brexit is agreed to be a disaster in need of remedy. Until that happens, any leader, whether in government or opposition, will simply circle the plughole of inevitable failure like Johnson & May.

    It’s remarkable to watch from a distance, without the daily necessity of providing analysis & commentary. Tory candidates are mostly competing to promise ever more fantastical fixes to problems of Tory making, all apparently unaware of who’s been in power for *twelve years*.

    Mordaunt remains one of Vote Leave’s most egregious liars. Badenoch professes to care more about statues than people because she believes, rightly, that this will endear her to otherwise racist swathes of the party. Truss is obviously appalling by every available metric.

    Sunak looks like a dazed Generation Game contestant insisting that he can spin plates or ice a wedding cake. Tugendhat is the only one truly attuned to the scale of the skip fire his party has become under Johnson but, even as this scuppers his chances, he knows he can’t say so.

    And always, at the epicentre of everything awful, right-wing papers. Treating flatulent failures like David Frost & Nick Timothy like sages, denying their readers the vaguest semblance of honest reporting & peddling propaganda now designed solely to delay their own comeuppances.


    https://twitter.com/mrjamesob/status/1547605103728766976?s=12

    James O’Brien is an online Steve Bray.
    I'm struggling to find anything in his summary that's wrong though. Care to point it out?

  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,289
    Farooq said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Farooq said:

    The debates will be make or break for Truss. She'll need to avoid being outshone by Badenoch while also looking more like a PM-in-waiting than Mordaunt or Sunak.

    True. But, that’s not going to happen. She read her launch address today off her mobile phone! And her team was only sending through half a sentence at a time 😆
    I didn’t get any likes for this, but it SO true! 🤣
    I just gave you a pity like… 😜
    A like is a like is a like as Aunt Gerty used to say. 2343 and counting. I’ve still got them coming in from the last thread, and I was doing my hair whilst posting there.
    A better measure would be number of likes divided by number of posts. Feel the quality...
    2348 likes divided by 6248 posts = feel the quality, feel the ❤️
    I've never checked that stat before. And looking at my "score" I'm honestly sickened at you people.
    6170/7276
    A thoughtful reply is worth 10x likes.
    I think I've done about three or four posts that are worth a "like".
    You are going for the sympathy vote, and I fell for it!
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,842
    edited July 2022
    Evening all :)

    The only observation I have is whether we could see an en bloc switch of Braverman's support to Badenoch meaning she moves third ahead of Truss in the next ballot.

    The Badenochians conquering the Trussites while the Mordauntists and the Sunakians look on.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,610
    Now equal at 4.7 for 2nd place
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,644
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The Tory leadership election is going to get blown away, as a news item, by the hot air of the scorchio weather

    We are now firmly into plausible prediction territory - Monday is 4 days away and some models are predicting 40C in.... MANCHESTER

    The overnight minima are equally amazing - 26C in some places. If you don't have aircon that is going to be horrid/dangerous

    There is still a reasonable chance the worst won't happen. But with each hour that passes and no substantial variation in the predictions, that becomes less likely. Brace

    "Some models"
    Do you doubt this?
    Ok. Please just tell me. Why are the Met Office wrong on this?
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,807
    Crossover between Rishi and Truss.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,610

    FPT:

    James O’Brien. Hammer, nail:

    We’re probably at least two Conservative leadership elections away from one in which Brexit is agreed to be a disaster in need of remedy. Until that happens, any leader, whether in government or opposition, will simply circle the plughole of inevitable failure like Johnson & May.

    It’s remarkable to watch from a distance, without the daily necessity of providing analysis & commentary. Tory candidates are mostly competing to promise ever more fantastical fixes to problems of Tory making, all apparently unaware of who’s been in power for *twelve years*.

    Mordaunt remains one of Vote Leave’s most egregious liars. Badenoch professes to care more about statues than people because she believes, rightly, that this will endear her to otherwise racist swathes of the party. Truss is obviously appalling by every available metric.

    Sunak looks like a dazed Generation Game contestant insisting that he can spin plates or ice a wedding cake. Tugendhat is the only one truly attuned to the scale of the skip fire his party has become under Johnson but, even as this scuppers his chances, he knows he can’t say so.

    And always, at the epicentre of everything awful, right-wing papers. Treating flatulent failures like David Frost & Nick Timothy like sages, denying their readers the vaguest semblance of honest reporting & peddling propaganda now designed solely to delay their own comeuppances.


    https://twitter.com/mrjamesob/status/1547605103728766976?s=12

    James O’Brien is an online Steve Bray.
    I'm struggling to find anything in his summary that's wrong though. Care to point it out?

    Sunak is too young to have been on the Generation Game.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    FPT:

    James O’Brien. Hammer, nail:

    We’re probably at least two Conservative leadership elections away from one in which Brexit is agreed to be a disaster in need of remedy. Until that happens, any leader, whether in government or opposition, will simply circle the plughole of inevitable failure like Johnson & May.

    It’s remarkable to watch from a distance, without the daily necessity of providing analysis & commentary. Tory candidates are mostly competing to promise ever more fantastical fixes to problems of Tory making, all apparently unaware of who’s been in power for *twelve years*.

    Mordaunt remains one of Vote Leave’s most egregious liars. Badenoch professes to care more about statues than people because she believes, rightly, that this will endear her to otherwise racist swathes of the party. Truss is obviously appalling by every available metric.

    Sunak looks like a dazed Generation Game contestant insisting that he can spin plates or ice a wedding cake. Tugendhat is the only one truly attuned to the scale of the skip fire his party has become under Johnson but, even as this scuppers his chances, he knows he can’t say so.

    And always, at the epicentre of everything awful, right-wing papers. Treating flatulent failures like David Frost & Nick Timothy like sages, denying their readers the vaguest semblance of honest reporting & peddling propaganda now designed solely to delay their own comeuppances.


    https://twitter.com/mrjamesob/status/1547605103728766976?s=12

    James O’Brien is an online Steve Bray.
    I'm struggling to find anything in his summary that's wrong though. Care to point it out?

    'Badenoch professes to care more about statues than people because she believes, rightly, that this will endear her to otherwise racist swathes of the party.'

    Would appear to be complete horse shit
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,386
    edited July 2022

    Members vote PM4PM, Tory MPs deal with the buyer's remorse.

    I guess I am not alone in thinking the whole line up of candidates to be PM is poor pickings.

    You sure aren't.
    That Braverman came sixth to be our next PM says it all really.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,610
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The Tory leadership election is going to get blown away, as a news item, by the hot air of the scorchio weather

    We are now firmly into plausible prediction territory - Monday is 4 days away and some models are predicting 40C in.... MANCHESTER

    The overnight minima are equally amazing - 26C in some places. If you don't have aircon that is going to be horrid/dangerous

    There is still a reasonable chance the worst won't happen. But with each hour that passes and no substantial variation in the predictions, that becomes less likely. Brace

    "Some models"
    Do you doubt this?
    I'm sticking with the Met Office who have computers the size of the moon processing all this.

    35 degrees for Midlands they say.

    I'm not saying it is not going to be a nightmare. And we might break the 38.5 record. But 40+? Hmm...
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Leon said:

    The Tory leadership election is going to get blown away, as a news item, by the hot air of the scorchio weather

    We are now firmly into plausible prediction territory - Monday is 4 days away and some models are predicting 40C in.... MANCHESTER

    The overnight minima are equally amazing - 26C in some places. If you don't have aircon that is going to be horrid/dangerous

    There is still a reasonable chance the worst won't happen. But with each hour that passes and no substantial variation in the predictions, that becomes less likely. Brace

    2 bed C19th peasant cottage here, walls damp rubble about 6 foot through, river tavy swimming hole a mile away. No pain at all.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,899
    It's going to be a right laugh watching these idiots trying to outdo one another with their rejection of net zero to see if followed up in a day or so with the hottest temperature ever recorded in the UK.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,039

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The Tory leadership election is going to get blown away, as a news item, by the hot air of the scorchio weather

    We are now firmly into plausible prediction territory - Monday is 4 days away and some models are predicting 40C in.... MANCHESTER

    The overnight minima are equally amazing - 26C in some places. If you don't have aircon that is going to be horrid/dangerous

    There is still a reasonable chance the worst won't happen. But with each hour that passes and no substantial variation in the predictions, that becomes less likely. Brace

    "Some models"
    Do you doubt this?
    Ok. Please just tell me. Why are the Met Office wrong on this?
    They're not wrong, just different. Because the Met make their predictions by combining their own and various other models - GFS, ECM, GEFS, etc

    Think of, say, GFS (probably the most influential model) as the raw data. To get from there to the MetOffice prediction is as much an art as a science: like taking raw ingredients and cooking

    But the raw data is extremely important (as any chef knows). GFS is predicting, in many of the multiple runs it does every six hours, 40C+ two days running for large parts of England/Wales

    It's not outlandish. My Meteo WeatherPro app on my iPhone, which is normally pretty reliable and unhysterical, is predicting 39C for London on Tuesday. That's the all time UK record broken
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,326

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The Tory leadership election is going to get blown away, as a news item, by the hot air of the scorchio weather

    We are now firmly into plausible prediction territory - Monday is 4 days away and some models are predicting 40C in.... MANCHESTER

    The overnight minima are equally amazing - 26C in some places. If you don't have aircon that is going to be horrid/dangerous

    There is still a reasonable chance the worst won't happen. But with each hour that passes and no substantial variation in the predictions, that becomes less likely. Brace

    "Some models"
    Do you doubt this?
    Ok. Please just tell me. Why are the Met Office wrong on this?
    Raw data is just one bit of information. Ensembles add to this, but have limits too. Experienced forecasters synthesise the data from all sources to get their forecast.
    Weather apps take raw data, and are a useful guide only.
    I still don’t think we will see 40 deg in the U.K.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,644

    FPT:

    James O’Brien. Hammer, nail:

    We’re probably at least two Conservative leadership elections away from one in which Brexit is agreed to be a disaster in need of remedy. Until that happens, any leader, whether in government or opposition, will simply circle the plughole of inevitable failure like Johnson & May.

    It’s remarkable to watch from a distance, without the daily necessity of providing analysis & commentary. Tory candidates are mostly competing to promise ever more fantastical fixes to problems of Tory making, all apparently unaware of who’s been in power for *twelve years*.

    Mordaunt remains one of Vote Leave’s most egregious liars. Badenoch professes to care more about statues than people because she believes, rightly, that this will endear her to otherwise racist swathes of the party. Truss is obviously appalling by every available metric.

    Sunak looks like a dazed Generation Game contestant insisting that he can spin plates or ice a wedding cake. Tugendhat is the only one truly attuned to the scale of the skip fire his party has become under Johnson but, even as this scuppers his chances, he knows he can’t say so.

    And always, at the epicentre of everything awful, right-wing papers. Treating flatulent failures like David Frost & Nick Timothy like sages, denying their readers the vaguest semblance of honest reporting & peddling propaganda now designed solely to delay their own comeuppances.


    https://twitter.com/mrjamesob/status/1547605103728766976?s=12

    James O’Brien is an online Steve Bray.
    I'm struggling to find anything in his summary that's wrong though. Care to point it out?

    Sunak is too young to have been on the Generation Game.
    ;-)

    But not too young to look "like a dazed Generation Game contestant"
  • The year is 2060.

    PM CorrectHorseBattery is completing his second term in office. He copied the strategy of Keir Starmer’s successful 2024 election run.

    Elsewhere Bart is still telling people about how he is infecting people around him with COVID-19

    Quite probably I'll still be needing to tell people that we need to live with COVID19, yes. 🤣
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,734
    To be fair to Tom Hat, I think the picture in which he had a logo which read 'Tit' was a spoof.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,039

    Leon said:

    The Tory leadership election is going to get blown away, as a news item, by the hot air of the scorchio weather

    We are now firmly into plausible prediction territory - Monday is 4 days away and some models are predicting 40C in.... MANCHESTER

    The overnight minima are equally amazing - 26C in some places. If you don't have aircon that is going to be horrid/dangerous

    There is still a reasonable chance the worst won't happen. But with each hour that passes and no substantial variation in the predictions, that becomes less likely. Brace

    It looks like London is going to shit the bed on Monday.

    Not sure I want to risk train travel with those temperatures.
    If it still looks like 38-40C on Monday-Tuesday by, say, Saturday noon, then I would cancel any train travel

    If a train breaks down in 40C heat, and the aircon fails (and lots of stuff will fail in that heat), it could be genuinely nasty. You will cook, almost literally

    Of course this MAY WELL NOT HAPPEN, but we are now within 5 days of this and the models are still pumping out these scary temps
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,243
    Whether or not we get 38C, 39C or 40C it's certainly gonna be bloody hot!
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,386
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    The only observation I have is whether we could see an en bloc switch of Braverman's support to Badenoch meaning she moves third ahead of Truss in the next ballot.

    The Badenochians conquering the Trussites while the Mordauntists and the Sunakians look on.

    There is a difference between being small state and authoritarian. It's possible to be both, just about, with some mental gymnastics. And there will be some crossover.
    But I don't think you can add them neatly.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,635
    edited July 2022

    Leon said:

    The Tory leadership election is going to get blown away, as a news item, by the hot air of the scorchio weather

    We are now firmly into plausible prediction territory - Monday is 4 days away and some models are predicting 40C in.... MANCHESTER

    The overnight minima are equally amazing - 26C in some places. If you don't have aircon that is going to be horrid/dangerous

    There is still a reasonable chance the worst won't happen. But with each hour that passes and no substantial variation in the predictions, that becomes less likely. Brace

    "Some models"?

    Are they the ones from Prof Ferguson?

    Lets check:

    Model, max temp, where, when

    Arpege (France): 38C, South, Mon (Tue not modelled, likely hotter)
    ECM, 37C, London, Tue
    GFS, 41C, Doncaster, Tue
    ICON, 39C+, East, Tue (Not modelled beyond midday, likely well above 40C)
    Met Office High Res, 40C+, East Midlands, Tue


    I think we can be pretty certain now it is going to be effing hot. 39C or 40C? Does it matter?

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,610
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The Tory leadership election is going to get blown away, as a news item, by the hot air of the scorchio weather

    We are now firmly into plausible prediction territory - Monday is 4 days away and some models are predicting 40C in.... MANCHESTER

    The overnight minima are equally amazing - 26C in some places. If you don't have aircon that is going to be horrid/dangerous

    There is still a reasonable chance the worst won't happen. But with each hour that passes and no substantial variation in the predictions, that becomes less likely. Brace

    It looks like London is going to shit the bed on Monday.

    Not sure I want to risk train travel with those temperatures.
    If it still looks like 38-40C on Monday-Tuesday by, say, Saturday noon, then I would cancel any train travel

    If a train breaks down in 40C heat, and the aircon fails (and lots of stuff will fail in that heat), it could be genuinely nasty. You will cook, almost literally

    Of course this MAY WELL NOT HAPPEN, but we are now within 5 days of this and the models are still pumping out these scary temps
    I agree on travel. Cancel any travel plans unless it is literally utterly essential.
  • Is there anything Leon won’t try and scare people about. I feel like he must get some enjoyment out of it
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,644
    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    The Tory leadership election is going to get blown away, as a news item, by the hot air of the scorchio weather

    We are now firmly into plausible prediction territory - Monday is 4 days away and some models are predicting 40C in.... MANCHESTER

    The overnight minima are equally amazing - 26C in some places. If you don't have aircon that is going to be horrid/dangerous

    There is still a reasonable chance the worst won't happen. But with each hour that passes and no substantial variation in the predictions, that becomes less likely. Brace

    2 bed C19th peasant cottage here, walls damp rubble about 6 foot through, river tavy swimming hole a mile away. No pain at all.
    Tbf it's only peaked at 23C in Devon today. Very pleasant here today in Dorset too.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,610
    Cookie said:

    To be fair to Tom Hat, I think the picture in which he had a logo which read 'Tit' was a spoof.

    To be honest, a "tit" would be an improvement on the current occupant.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Agree entirely on Mordaunt - while Truss may be Boris2 on policy, Mordaunt is clearly Boris2 on honesty (policy? Who knows)

    In fairness to Tugendhat the TiT logo was a clever spoof….
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,326
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The Tory leadership election is going to get blown away, as a news item, by the hot air of the scorchio weather

    We are now firmly into plausible prediction territory - Monday is 4 days away and some models are predicting 40C in.... MANCHESTER

    The overnight minima are equally amazing - 26C in some places. If you don't have aircon that is going to be horrid/dangerous

    There is still a reasonable chance the worst won't happen. But with each hour that passes and no substantial variation in the predictions, that becomes less likely. Brace

    "Some models"
    Do you doubt this?
    Ok. Please just tell me. Why are the Met Office wrong on this?
    They're not wrong, just different. Because the Met make their predictions by combining their own and various other models - GFS, ECM, GEFS, etc

    Think of, say, GFS (probably the most influential model) as the raw data. To get from there to the MetOffice prediction is as much an art as a science: like taking raw ingredients and cooking

    But the raw data is extremely important (as any chef knows). GFS is predicting, in many of the multiple runs it does every six hours, 40C+ two days running for large parts of England/Wales

    It's not outlandish. My Meteo WeatherPro app on my iPhone, which is normally pretty reliable and unhysterical, is predicting 39C for London on Tuesday. That's the all time UK record broken
    Gfs is only the most ‘influential’ because it runs every 6 hours. It’s usually third in the list for accuracy.
    Your ap is just linking raw model data. It may well be gfs data.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,610
    glw said:

    It's going to be a right laugh watching these idiots trying to outdo one another with their rejection of net zero to see if followed up in a day or so with the hottest temperature ever recorded in the UK.

    1000x this.

  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    The Tory leadership election is going to get blown away, as a news item, by the hot air of the scorchio weather

    We are now firmly into plausible prediction territory - Monday is 4 days away and some models are predicting 40C in.... MANCHESTER

    The overnight minima are equally amazing - 26C in some places. If you don't have aircon that is going to be horrid/dangerous

    There is still a reasonable chance the worst won't happen. But with each hour that passes and no substantial variation in the predictions, that becomes less likely. Brace

    2 bed C19th peasant cottage here, walls damp rubble about 6 foot through, river tavy swimming hole a mile away. No pain at all.
    Tbf it's only peaked at 23C in Devon today. Very pleasant here today in Dorset too.
    But I like to feel prepped.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,723

    Cookie said:

    To be fair to Tom Hat, I think the picture in which he had a logo which read 'Tit' was a spoof.

    To be honest, a "tit" would be an improvement on the current occupant.

    Blue Tit presumably.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,089
    The TiT logo was a twitter spoof
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,243
    Entertaining piece Miss Cycle. I do think you are being a tad hard on Ms Money-Penny M however...
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,842
    Leon said:


    They're not wrong, just different. Because the Met make their predictions by combining their own and various other models - GFS, ECM, GEFS, etc

    Think of, say, GFS (probably the most influential model) as the raw data. To get from there to the MetOffice prediction is as much an art as a science: like taking raw ingredients and cooking

    But the raw data is extremely important (as any chef knows). GFS is predicting, in many of the multiple runs it does every six hours, 40C+ two days running for large parts of England/Wales

    It's not outlandish. My Meteo WeatherPro app on my iPhone, which is normally pretty reliable and unhysterical, is predicting 39C for London on Tuesday. That's the all time UK record broken

    The hot snap is only about 48 hours but as you say Monday and Tuesday are going to be record breaking especially but not exclusively for eastern England with the hottest areas along the A1.

    By Tuesday morning the heat is already out of Cornwall and by Wales and by the end of the day a spell of heavy and probably thundery rain extending from the south west has chased the heat out of all of England.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,493

    FPT:

    James O’Brien. Hammer, nail:

    We’re probably at least two Conservative leadership elections away from one in which Brexit is agreed to be a disaster in need of remedy. Until that happens, any leader, whether in government or opposition, will simply circle the plughole of inevitable failure like Johnson & May.

    It’s remarkable to watch from a distance, without the daily necessity of providing analysis & commentary. Tory candidates are mostly competing to promise ever more fantastical fixes to problems of Tory making, all apparently unaware of who’s been in power for *twelve years*.

    Mordaunt remains one of Vote Leave’s most egregious liars. Badenoch professes to care more about statues than people because she believes, rightly, that this will endear her to otherwise racist swathes of the party. Truss is obviously appalling by every available metric.

    Sunak looks like a dazed Generation Game contestant insisting that he can spin plates or ice a wedding cake. Tugendhat is the only one truly attuned to the scale of the skip fire his party has become under Johnson but, even as this scuppers his chances, he knows he can’t say so.

    And always, at the epicentre of everything awful, right-wing papers. Treating flatulent failures like David Frost & Nick Timothy like sages, denying their readers the vaguest semblance of honest reporting & peddling propaganda now designed solely to delay their own comeuppances.


    https://twitter.com/mrjamesob/status/1547605103728766976?s=12

    James O’Brien is an online Steve Bray.
    I'm struggling to find anything in his summary that's wrong though. Care to point it out?

    There is no cause so awful that O'Brien's opposition doesn't make me warm to it just a little.

    It cannot be all bad if that pub bore is against it.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,039

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The Tory leadership election is going to get blown away, as a news item, by the hot air of the scorchio weather

    We are now firmly into plausible prediction territory - Monday is 4 days away and some models are predicting 40C in.... MANCHESTER

    The overnight minima are equally amazing - 26C in some places. If you don't have aircon that is going to be horrid/dangerous

    There is still a reasonable chance the worst won't happen. But with each hour that passes and no substantial variation in the predictions, that becomes less likely. Brace

    "Some models"
    Do you doubt this?
    Ok. Please just tell me. Why are the Met Office wrong on this?
    They're not wrong, just different. Because the Met make their predictions by combining their own and various other models - GFS, ECM, GEFS, etc

    Think of, say, GFS (probably the most influential model) as the raw data. To get from there to the MetOffice prediction is as much an art as a science: like taking raw ingredients and cooking

    But the raw data is extremely important (as any chef knows). GFS is predicting, in many of the multiple runs it does every six hours, 40C+ two days running for large parts of England/Wales

    It's not outlandish. My Meteo WeatherPro app on my iPhone, which is normally pretty reliable and unhysterical, is predicting 39C for London on Tuesday. That's the all time UK record broken
    Gfs is only the most ‘influential’ because it runs every 6 hours. It’s usually third in the list for accuracy.
    Your ap is just linking raw model data. It may well be gfs data.
    Another amazing prediction is the speed at which the temperature FALLS (thank God)

    In some places it is predicted to fall by 20C in 6-12 hours. That's like extreme Chicago weather - in Blighty

    Indeed would that be the steepest temporal temperature gradient ever? in the UK?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,386
    @Leon is, true to form, pumping the worst case scenario.
    But most extreme possibility is far from impossible by definition.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    FPT:

    James O’Brien. Hammer, nail:

    We’re probably at least two Conservative leadership elections away from one in which Brexit is agreed to be a disaster in need of remedy. Until that happens, any leader, whether in government or opposition, will simply circle the plughole of inevitable failure like Johnson & May.

    It’s remarkable to watch from a distance, without the daily necessity of providing analysis & commentary. Tory candidates are mostly competing to promise ever more fantastical fixes to problems of Tory making, all apparently unaware of who’s been in power for *twelve years*.

    Mordaunt remains one of Vote Leave’s most egregious liars. Badenoch professes to care more about statues than people because she believes, rightly, that this will endear her to otherwise racist swathes of the party. Truss is obviously appalling by every available metric.

    Sunak looks like a dazed Generation Game contestant insisting that he can spin plates or ice a wedding cake. Tugendhat is the only one truly attuned to the scale of the skip fire his party has become under Johnson but, even as this scuppers his chances, he knows he can’t say so.

    And always, at the epicentre of everything awful, right-wing papers. Treating flatulent failures like David Frost & Nick Timothy like sages, denying their readers the vaguest semblance of honest reporting & peddling propaganda now designed solely to delay their own comeuppances.


    https://twitter.com/mrjamesob/status/1547605103728766976?s=12

    James O’Brien is an online Steve Bray.
    I'm struggling to find anything in his summary that's wrong though. Care to point it out?

    Sunak is too young to have been on the Generation Game.
    ;-)

    But not too young to look "like a dazed Generation Game contestant"
    I don't remember anything about actual contests just memorising the shit on the conveyor belt unless that was a different game. Doubt Rishi is short of toasters.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,753
    dixiedean said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    The only observation I have is whether we could see an en bloc switch of Braverman's support to Badenoch meaning she moves third ahead of Truss in the next ballot.

    The Badenochians conquering the Trussites while the Mordauntists and the Sunakians look on.

    There is a difference between being small state and authoritarian. It's possible to be both, just about, with some mental gymnastics. And there will be some crossover.
    But I don't think you can add them neatly.
    Mrs Thatcher might have been described as small state and authoritarian.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,846
    Naughty of Cycle to be using fake Twitter as part of her argument.

    The wider, more relevant point is the evidence that Johnson has corrupted, at least partially, the way many of his colleagues see and do politics.
  • JACK_WJACK_W Posts: 682
    I always enjoy a piece by Cyclefree, even more so when it comes from the high ground and we should always expect better of our politicians.

    The reality is that few will cast their ballot in the expectation that their candidate is a paragon of virtue, more that we chose the least worst and hope for more.
  • It seems like only a few days ago that we had no idea when Boris Johnson would go nor who would be the next PM. Now I think wevan probably form a pretty good guess at the next three Prime Ministers in the correct order.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,610
    dixiedean said:

    Members vote PM4PM, Tory MPs deal with the buyer's remorse.

    I guess I am not alone in thinking the whole line up of candidates to be PM is poor pickings.

    You sure aren't.
    That Braverman came sixth to be our next PM says it all really.
    What I don't get is if the purists in ERG wanted someone to run to "widen the debate" and all that and have a wild outside chance of getting some traction why didn't Steve Baker run?

    He's far more articulate and logical than Braverman.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,039
    dixiedean said:

    @Leon is, true to form, pumping the worst case scenario.
    But most extreme possibility is far from impossible by definition.

    I really am not. One of the most extreme models goes up to 45-46C. I haven't mentioned it

    @Flatlander gives a concise and fair summary of the predictions, as they stand, below
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,934

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The Tory leadership election is going to get blown away, as a news item, by the hot air of the scorchio weather

    We are now firmly into plausible prediction territory - Monday is 4 days away and some models are predicting 40C in.... MANCHESTER

    The overnight minima are equally amazing - 26C in some places. If you don't have aircon that is going to be horrid/dangerous

    There is still a reasonable chance the worst won't happen. But with each hour that passes and no substantial variation in the predictions, that becomes less likely. Brace

    "Some models"
    Do you doubt this?
    Ok. Please just tell me. Why are the Met Office wrong on this?
    They're not wrong, just different. Because the Met make their predictions by combining their own and various other models - GFS, ECM, GEFS, etc

    Think of, say, GFS (probably the most influential model) as the raw data. To get from there to the MetOffice prediction is as much an art as a science: like taking raw ingredients and cooking

    But the raw data is extremely important (as any chef knows). GFS is predicting, in many of the multiple runs it does every six hours, 40C+ two days running for large parts of England/Wales

    It's not outlandish. My Meteo WeatherPro app on my iPhone, which is normally pretty reliable and unhysterical, is predicting 39C for London on Tuesday. That's the all time UK record broken
    Gfs is only the most ‘influential’ because it runs every 6 hours. It’s usually third in the list
    for accuracy.

    Your ap is just linking raw model data. It may
    well be gfs data.
    Absolutely, and it runs to 384hours and provides lots of free data.

    But GFS is far from an outlier on this heatwave. ECMWF, the most consistently accurate model, has been warmer and more settled than GFs throughout the run up. Far fewer cool outliers. And UKMet, the second most accurate, has been hot hot hot.

    The UKV and Mogreps which are localised versions of those global models are both showing 39-41C temperatures.

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,243
    JACK_W said:

    I always enjoy a piece by Cyclefree, even more so when it comes from the high ground and we should always expect better of our politicians.

    The reality is that few will cast their ballot in the expectation that their candidate is a paragon of virtue, more that we chose the least worst and hope for more.

    We are all sinners Lord W. But some more so than others...
  • It seems like only a few days ago that we had no idea when Boris Johnson would go nor who would be the next PM. Now I think we can probably form a pretty good guess at the next three Prime Ministers in the correct order.

    I think Penny Mordaunt, Keir Starmer and Kemi Badenoch.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,276
    Leon said:

    The Tory leadership election is going to get blown away, as a news item, by the hot air of the scorchio weather

    We are now firmly into plausible prediction territory - Monday is 4 days away and some models are predicting 40C in.... MANCHESTER

    The overnight minima are equally amazing - 26C in some places. If you don't have aircon that is going to be horrid/dangerous

    There is still a reasonable chance the worst won't happen. But with each hour that passes and no substantial variation in the predictions, that becomes less likely. Brace

    Which model? Is this GFS again?

    The latest ECMWF meteogram for Manchester has the highest temperature in the ensemble at 36C in Manchester on the Tuesday. I suppose you can get a couple more degrees out of that for the temperature at 3pm.

    This other forecast chart gives a 0% probability for temperatures greater than 40C in the UK on Monday or Tuesday, and a >95% probability for temperatures greater than 30C in some places on both days.

    I'm not sure how reliable the ECMWF ensemble is at forecasting maximum surface temperatures, and a relatively small forecast error could easily see temperatures exceed 40C somewhere, but I find it interesting that the ECMWF ensemble model hasn't shown those temperatures at all.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The Tory leadership election is going to get blown away, as a news item, by the hot air of the scorchio weather

    We are now firmly into plausible prediction territory - Monday is 4 days away and some models are predicting 40C in.... MANCHESTER

    The overnight minima are equally amazing - 26C in some places. If you don't have aircon that is going to be horrid/dangerous

    There is still a reasonable chance the worst won't happen. But with each hour that passes and no substantial variation in the predictions, that becomes less likely. Brace

    "Some models"
    Do you doubt this?
    Ok. Please just tell me. Why are the Met Office wrong on this?
    Raw data is just one bit of information. Ensembles add to this, but have limits too. Experienced forecasters synthesise the data from all sources to get their forecast.
    Weather apps take raw data, and are a useful guide only.
    I still don’t think we will see 40 deg in the U.K.
    Ever? Or just next week?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,039

    Is there anything Leon won’t try and scare people about. I feel like he must get some enjoyment out of it

    I don't think he's trying to *scare* people. He's an attention whore. Things cannot just be ordinary or unremarkable: they have to be EXTREME. Things aren't just Meh. They're BRILLIANT! or HIDEOUS! Because the only way people will pay attention to him is if he does stuff to the MAX!

    And once in a while his wild vomiting over the fetid entrails of his predictions yields a truth. Which he then takes as proof that all of his other vomit hides uncompromising truths. And when they turned out to be false, there's plenty more truths hidden beneath a mixture of wine, whelks and stomach acid.
    Er, are you OK?


    lol
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,846
    Leon said:

    The Tory leadership election is going to get blown away, as a news item, by the hot air of the scorchio weather

    We are now firmly into plausible prediction territory - Monday is 4 days away and some models are predicting 40C in.... MANCHESTER

    The overnight minima are equally amazing - 26C in some places. If you don't have aircon that is going to be horrid/dangerous

    There is still a reasonable chance the worst won't happen. But with each hour that passes and no substantial variation in the predictions, that becomes less likely. Brace

    Get a medium sized towel, put it in the freezer for an hour, then take the towel and both you and it move to Belfast. Problem sorted!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,492
    Leon said:

    The Tory leadership election is going to get blown away, as a news item, by the hot air of the scorchio weather

    We are now firmly into plausible prediction territory - Monday is 4 days away and some models are predicting 40C in.... MANCHESTER

    The overnight minima are equally amazing - 26C in some places. If you don't have aircon that is going to be horrid/dangerous

    There is still a reasonable chance the worst won't happen. But with each hour that passes and no substantial variation in the predictions, that becomes less likely. Brace

    BBC weather says 34 degrees in Manchester.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2643123/today
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,934
    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    @Leon is, true to form, pumping the worst case scenario.
    But most extreme possibility is far from impossible by definition.

    I really am not. One of the most extreme models goes up to 45-46C. I haven't mentioned it

    @Flatlander gives a concise and fair summary of the predictions, as they stand, below
    It’s going to be record breakingly hot. No matter how much the BJOs of the weather world say otherwise.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,389
    edited July 2022
    As far as I can see... Mordaunt, Sunak or Truss all just represent incompetence as usual; I don't think it really matters who wins, the likelihood is that they will all just tread water for a few years and nothing much will change. Thats the impression I get.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,723
    edited July 2022

    Is there anything Leon won’t try and scare people about. I feel like he must get some enjoyment out of it

    I don't think he's trying to *scare* people. He's an attention whore. Things cannot just be ordinary or unremarkable: they have to be EXTREME. Things aren't just Meh. They're BRILLIANT! or HIDEOUS! Because the only way people will pay attention to him is if he does stuff to the MAX!

    And once in a while his wild vomiting over the fetid entrails of his predictions yields a truth. Which he then takes as proof that all of his other vomit hides uncompromising truths. And when they turned out to be false, there's plenty more truths hidden beneath a mixture of wine, whelks and stomach acid.
    Happy memories of scoffing pickled winkles on evenings out ...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,846

    It seems like only a few days ago that we had no idea when Boris Johnson would go nor who would be the next PM. Now I think we can probably form a pretty good guess at the next three Prime Ministers in the correct order.

    I think Penny Mordaunt, Keir Starmer and Kemi Badenoch.
    You mean, Starmer won’t switch to PR?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,846
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The Tory leadership election is going to get blown away, as a news item, by the hot air of the scorchio weather

    We are now firmly into plausible prediction territory - Monday is 4 days away and some models are predicting 40C in.... MANCHESTER

    The overnight minima are equally amazing - 26C in some places. If you don't have aircon that is going to be horrid/dangerous

    There is still a reasonable chance the worst won't happen. But with each hour that passes and no substantial variation in the predictions, that becomes less likely. Brace

    It looks like London is going to shit the bed on Monday.

    Not sure I want to risk train travel with those temperatures.
    If it still looks like 38-40C on Monday-Tuesday by, say, Saturday noon, then I would cancel any train travel

    If a train breaks down in 40C heat, and the aircon fails (and lots of stuff will fail in that heat), it could be genuinely nasty. You will cook, almost literally

    Of course this MAY WELL NOT HAPPEN, but we are now within 5 days of this and the models are still pumping out these scary temps
    This reminds me of “this MAY WELL NOT HAPPEN but MILLIONS of Brits are going to DIE of Covid!”
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,472
    Leon said:

    Is there anything Leon won’t try and scare people about. I feel like he must get some enjoyment out of it

    I don't think he's trying to *scare* people. He's an attention whore. Things cannot just be ordinary or unremarkable: they have to be EXTREME. Things aren't just Meh. They're BRILLIANT! or HIDEOUS! Because the only way people will pay attention to him is if he does stuff to the MAX!

    And once in a while his wild vomiting over the fetid entrails of his predictions yields a truth. Which he then takes as proof that all of his other vomit hides uncompromising truths. And when they turned out to be false, there's plenty more truths hidden beneath a mixture of wine, whelks and stomach acid.
    Er, are you OK?

    lol
    I'm fine thanks. I think my post captured you rather well. ;)
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    Agree entirely on Mordaunt - while Truss may be Boris2 on policy, Mordaunt is clearly Boris2 on honesty (policy? Who knows)

    In fairness to Tugendhat the TiT logo was a clever spoof….

    NOBODY running to replace him, is anywhere close to BJ re: (dis)honesty. Attempts at putting Mordaunt in same class are laughably unpersuasive methinks.

    As for "clever spoof", well, Adlai Stevenson was a great one for self-deprecating humor.

    Amusing AND spoke well of the man - but did his electoral prospects zero good.
  • IanB2 said:

    It seems like only a few days ago that we had no idea when Boris Johnson would go nor who would be the next PM. Now I think we can probably form a pretty good guess at the next three Prime Ministers in the correct order.

    I think Penny Mordaunt, Keir Starmer and Kemi Badenoch.
    You mean, Starmer won’t switch to PR?
    Starmer only does PR in the event of a Hung Parliament
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,492

    Truss now 2nd fav.

    Did I miss something?

    Punters not impressed by Rishi's gain in votes today, evidently.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,191
    If we're talking unreality TV, Channel 4 have this for us to look forward to;

    Make Me Prime Minister (w/t) will follow the ambitious candidates on the campaign trail. They will be put through their paces in a series of prime ministerial style tasks designed to test their leadership skills, resilience, and integrity. These weekly group challenges will be set and adjudicated by Alastair Campbell and Baroness Sayeeda Warsi, two political heavyweights who know exactly what it takes to succeed in office.

    https://www.channel4.com/press/news/channel-4-gets-political-make-me-prime-minister-wt

    Maybe we should have let them manage the current process.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,282

    FPT:

    James O’Brien. Hammer, nail:

    We’re probably at least two Conservative leadership elections away from one in which Brexit is agreed to be a disaster in need of remedy. Until that happens, any leader, whether in government or opposition, will simply circle the plughole of inevitable failure like Johnson & May.

    It’s remarkable to watch from a distance, without the daily necessity of providing analysis & commentary. Tory candidates are mostly competing to promise ever more fantastical fixes to problems of Tory making, all apparently unaware of who’s been in power for *twelve years*.

    Mordaunt remains one of Vote Leave’s most egregious liars. Badenoch professes to care more about statues than people because she believes, rightly, that this will endear her to otherwise racist swathes of the party. Truss is obviously appalling by every available metric.

    Sunak looks like a dazed Generation Game contestant insisting that he can spin plates or ice a wedding cake. Tugendhat is the only one truly attuned to the scale of the skip fire his party has become under Johnson but, even as this scuppers his chances, he knows he can’t say so.

    And always, at the epicentre of everything awful, right-wing papers. Treating flatulent failures like David Frost & Nick Timothy like sages, denying their readers the vaguest semblance of honest reporting & peddling propaganda now designed solely to delay their own comeuppances.


    https://twitter.com/mrjamesob/status/1547605103728766976?s=12

    James O’Brien is an online Steve Bray.
    I'm struggling to find anything in his summary that's wrong though. Care to point it out?

    It's a lot of partisan spleen and invective.

    It'll appeal to those who already agree with him, and no-one else.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    The Tory leadership election is going to get blown away, as a news item, by the hot air of the scorchio weather

    We are now firmly into plausible prediction territory - Monday is 4 days away and some models are predicting 40C in.... MANCHESTER

    The overnight minima are equally amazing - 26C in some places. If you don't have aircon that is going to be horrid/dangerous

    There is still a reasonable chance the worst won't happen. But with each hour that passes and no substantial variation in the predictions, that becomes less likely. Brace

    BBC weather says 34 degrees in Manchester.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2643123/today
    Netweather 40 f/l 42
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,842
    dixiedean said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    The only observation I have is whether we could see an en bloc switch of Braverman's support to Badenoch meaning she moves third ahead of Truss in the next ballot.

    The Badenochians conquering the Trussites while the Mordauntists and the Sunakians look on.

    There is a difference between being small state and authoritarian. It's possible to be both, just about, with some mental gymnastics. And there will be some crossover.
    But I don't think you can add them neatly.
    I confess I have no real idea for what any of the candidates stand.

    Their hideous Dutch auction on tax cuts undermined whatever shreds of credibility they still had but it's not their fault. They have to promise the Moon to idiots so they have to dance this ludicrous dance.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,846
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    The only observation I have is whether we could see an en bloc switch of Braverman's support to Badenoch meaning she moves third ahead of Truss in the next ballot.

    The Badenochians conquering the Trussites while the Mordauntists and the Sunakians look on.

    Some may do that, but others will be thinking about who might be able to give them a promotion.
  • JACK_WJACK_W Posts: 682
    GIN1138 said:

    JACK_W said:

    I always enjoy a piece by Cyclefree, even more so when it comes from the high ground and we should always expect better of our politicians.

    The reality is that few will cast their ballot in the expectation that their candidate is a paragon of virtue, more that we chose the least worst and hope for more.

    We are all sinners Lord W. But some more so than others...
    Your confessions as with the "others" is noted.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,753
    JACK_W said:

    I always enjoy a piece by Cyclefree, even more so when it comes from the high ground and we should always expect better of our politicians.

    The reality is that few will cast their ballot in the expectation that their candidate is a paragon of virtue, more that we chose the least worst and hope for more.

    Competence would be a start, let alone virtue. As mentioned on Spectator TV and elsewhere, whoever wins will be leading a country where prices are rocketing, there may be fuel shortages, no-one can see their doctor and muggers and murderers roam our streets untroubled by the constabulary. The government will need to establish it can get things done, now that firefighting Covid has disappeared as an excuse.

    None of the candidates so far seems to be addressing this, aside from fairytale tax cuts.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,276

    Leon said:

    The Tory leadership election is going to get blown away, as a news item, by the hot air of the scorchio weather

    We are now firmly into plausible prediction territory - Monday is 4 days away and some models are predicting 40C in.... MANCHESTER

    The overnight minima are equally amazing - 26C in some places. If you don't have aircon that is going to be horrid/dangerous

    There is still a reasonable chance the worst won't happen. But with each hour that passes and no substantial variation in the predictions, that becomes less likely. Brace

    It looks like London is going to shit the bed on Monday.

    Not sure I want to risk train travel with those temperatures.
    When temperatures were last this high, in July 2019, the Met Office issued a red weather warning and the train companies told people not to travel if they could avoid it.

    The Met Office will want to give a clear message about the likely temperatures for Monday before people finish work on Friday, but they will be cautious about issuing a red warning that far in advance. People in England should be adjusting plans around the likely high temperatures. You don't want to get caught in a train stuck in a middle of nowhere with no power because the heat has broken the network.

    Here in Edinburgh we're wondering if we will have enough ice cream.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,472
    Is this site turning into weatherbetting.com ?

    (I see the domain is available... the only downside is that it might attract Piers Corbyn...)
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,492
    FPT
    Icarus said:

    Truss, Sunak and Mordaunt all coming up short at launches or radio interviews today. The public hustings over the weekend could show what a poor choice the MPs have.

    Excellent news for Kemi Badenoch.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,326
    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The Tory leadership election is going to get blown away, as a news item, by the hot air of the scorchio weather

    We are now firmly into plausible prediction territory - Monday is 4 days away and some models are predicting 40C in.... MANCHESTER

    The overnight minima are equally amazing - 26C in some places. If you don't have aircon that is going to be horrid/dangerous

    There is still a reasonable chance the worst won't happen. But with each hour that passes and no substantial variation in the predictions, that becomes less likely. Brace

    "Some models"
    Do you doubt this?
    Ok. Please just tell me. Why are the Met Office wrong on this?
    They're not wrong, just different. Because the Met make their predictions by combining their own and various other models - GFS, ECM, GEFS, etc

    Think of, say, GFS (probably the most influential model) as the raw data. To get from there to the MetOffice prediction is as much an art as a science: like taking raw ingredients and cooking

    But the raw data is extremely important (as any chef knows). GFS is predicting, in many of the multiple runs it does every six hours, 40C+ two days running for large parts of England/Wales

    It's not outlandish. My Meteo WeatherPro app on my iPhone, which is normally pretty reliable and unhysterical, is predicting 39C for London on Tuesday. That's the all time UK record broken
    Gfs is only the most ‘influential’ because it runs every 6 hours. It’s usually third in the list
    for accuracy.

    Your ap is just linking raw model data. It may
    well be gfs data.
    Absolutely, and it runs to 384hours and provides lots of free data.

    But GFS is far from an outlier on this heatwave. ECMWF, the most consistently accurate model, has been warmer and more settled than GFs throughout the run up. Far fewer cool outliers. And UKMet, the second most accurate, has been hot hot hot.

    The UKV and Mogreps which are localised versions of those global models are both showing 39-41C temperatures.

    As a model run, or one of the ensemble members?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,492

    Leon said:

    The Tory leadership election is going to get blown away, as a news item, by the hot air of the scorchio weather

    We are now firmly into plausible prediction territory - Monday is 4 days away and some models are predicting 40C in.... MANCHESTER

    The overnight minima are equally amazing - 26C in some places. If you don't have aircon that is going to be horrid/dangerous

    There is still a reasonable chance the worst won't happen. But with each hour that passes and no substantial variation in the predictions, that becomes less likely. Brace

    It looks like London is going to shit the bed on Monday.

    Not sure I want to risk train travel with those temperatures.
    Today it wasn't hot in London, just pleasantly warm.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,753
    edited July 2022
    Andy_JS said:

    Truss now 2nd fav.

    Did I miss something?

    Punters not impressed by Rishi's gain in votes today, evidently.
    Rishi is back in second place, barely; 4.7 vs 4.8.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,039
    edited July 2022
    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The Tory leadership election is going to get blown away, as a news item, by the hot air of the scorchio weather

    We are now firmly into plausible prediction territory - Monday is 4 days away and some models are predicting 40C in.... MANCHESTER

    The overnight minima are equally amazing - 26C in some places. If you don't have aircon that is going to be horrid/dangerous

    There is still a reasonable chance the worst won't happen. But with each hour that passes and no substantial variation in the predictions, that becomes less likely. Brace

    It looks like London is going to shit the bed on Monday.

    Not sure I want to risk train travel with those temperatures.
    If it still looks like 38-40C on Monday-Tuesday by, say, Saturday noon, then I would cancel any train travel

    If a train breaks down in 40C heat, and the aircon fails (and lots of stuff will fail in that heat), it could be genuinely nasty. You will cook, almost literally

    Of course this MAY WELL NOT HAPPEN, but we are now within 5 days of this and the models are still pumping out these scary temps
    This reminds me of “this MAY WELL NOT HAPPEN but MILLIONS of Brits are going to DIE of Covid!”
    I said 2m was the extreme worst case scenario, I said 500,000 was the reasonable worst case scenario - this was before vaccines etc

    In the event, even WITH vaccines, 200,000 have died
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,846
    carnforth said:
    Sad.

    At least in Britain, when we get Johnson gone, most voters are thinking, “maybe we should try someone more sensible next time?”

    Italians elect their Johnson to shake things up, then when nothing changes, they think “that didn’t work, maybe JRM will actually shake things up?”, then when that doesn’t work, “maybe Nadine will shake things up…”, turnout falling all the while as more and more people opt out altogether. Having Draghi imposed on them was a blessing, notwithstanding the way it was done.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708

    IanB2 said:

    It seems like only a few days ago that we had no idea when Boris Johnson would go nor who would be the next PM. Now I think we can probably form a pretty good guess at the next three Prime Ministers in the correct order.

    I think Penny Mordaunt, Keir Starmer and Kemi Badenoch.
    You mean, Starmer won’t switch to PR?
    Starmer only does PR in the event of a Hung Parliament
    If LD are kingmakers, a potential Lib+Lab majority is probably quite small, and PR can be tanked by a small Lab rebellion. This is the problem they had with the Rainbow Coalition post-Brown, they tried to make a deal but (IIRC) Tom Watson said they wouldn't vote for the electoral reform part and that was the end of that.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,753
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    The Tory leadership election is going to get blown away, as a news item, by the hot air of the scorchio weather

    We are now firmly into plausible prediction territory - Monday is 4 days away and some models are predicting 40C in.... MANCHESTER

    The overnight minima are equally amazing - 26C in some places. If you don't have aircon that is going to be horrid/dangerous

    There is still a reasonable chance the worst won't happen. But with each hour that passes and no substantial variation in the predictions, that becomes less likely. Brace

    It looks like London is going to shit the bed on Monday.

    Not sure I want to risk train travel with those temperatures.
    Today it wasn't hot in London, just pleasantly warm.
    Hmm. I'd say hot but with a strong, cooling breeze. When the breeze dropped, the still air was suddenly stifling.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,702
     
    JACK_W said:

    I always enjoy a piece by Cyclefree, even more so when it comes from the high ground and we should always expect better of our politicians.

    The reality is that few will cast their ballot in the expectation that their candidate is a paragon of virtue, more that we chose the least worst and hope for more.

    Those voting for TT are voting for a paragon of *Teutonic* virtue. Nominally at least.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,039
    GFS



This discussion has been closed.