Great news for Labour if Truss wins but a tragedy for the country who will have an ERG puppet in no 10 who will start a trade war with the EU and continue the horrible divisive politics of the Johnson years .
If Truss wins the leadership and becomes PM a Labour majority looks likely, as a slash spending, ex Remainer she won't win back the redwall and as a born again, anti woke Brexiteer she will lose Remain seats in the redwall to the LDs.
Indeed if Truss wins I predict more Tory MPs will lose their seats than would have done had they stuck with Boris!
The reality for Conservative MPs and members to ponder is this: Lizzy Lightweight is the most likely person to deliver Starmer into No10. She would be Labour's preferred candidate.
Its likely all down to the flavour of Kemis backers.if they break for Truss heavily Mordaunt could get squeezed out here. Jesus, anyone but Truss from that 5
PM Truss will make Boris look like a bleeding heart liberal, it would be a Cabinet dominated by the ERG, she would be the puppet of Francois, IDS and Rees Mogg and Steve Baker as they would be the ones who got her the leadership
Its likely all down to the flavour of Kemis backers.if they break for Truss heavily Mordaunt could get squeezed out here. Jesus, anyone but Truss from that 5
PM Truss will make Boris look like a bleeding heart liberal, it would be a Cabinet dominated by the ERG, she would be the puppet of Francois, IDS and Rees Mogg and Steve Baker as they would be the ones who got her the leadership
Agreed. Would you resign your membership in protest?
Its likely all down to the flavour of Kemis backers.if they break for Truss heavily Mordaunt could get squeezed out here. Jesus, anyone but Truss from that 5
PM Truss will make Boris look like a bleeding heart liberal, it would be a Cabinet dominated by the ERG, she would be the puppet of Francois, IDS and Rees Mogg and Steve Baker as they would be the ones who got her the leadership
If we're talking unreality TV, Channel 4 have this for us to look forward to;
Make Me Prime Minister (w/t) will follow the ambitious candidates on the campaign trail. They will be put through their paces in a series of prime ministerial style tasks designed to test their leadership skills, resilience, and integrity. These weekly group challenges will be set and adjudicated by Alastair Campbell and Baroness Sayeeda Warsi, two political heavyweights who know exactly what it takes to succeed in office.
Well, that might not be the worst outcome. I don't trust Mordaunt much further than @Cyclefree, and I notice her launch was long on cliché and short on information.
And surely, surely, even Sunak couldn't possibly lose to Truss.
In a world where Hillary lost to The Donald?
Sunak is not as bad as Trump. And Truss is far worse than Clinton.
(Arguably, that could be 'Truss isn't quite as bad as Trump, but Sunak is a far better candidate than Clinton.')
All I'm saying is, do you REALLY think that Truss beating Sunak is impossible?
Seems like dangerous assumption, from your just-stated point of view re: the two.
Nothing is impossible. It's even possible one day Johnson will say something truthful or Cummings will show a sign of intelligence.
But she's a poor public speaker, infamous for her lack of preparation in key roles, highly controversial, has an undeveloped policy offering and has been an embarrassment at the Foreign Office.
I don't think she stands much chance.
Serious question: how has she been an embassy at the FO? I would say she’s been more effective than Johnson and Raab.
Is she infamous for her lack of preparation? I hadn’t heard that.
Great news for Labour if Truss wins but a tragedy for the country who will have an ERG puppet in no 10 who will start a trade war with the EU and continue the horrible divisive politics of the Johnson years .
If Truss wins the leadership and becomes PM a Labour majority looks likely, as a slash spending, ex Remainer she won't win back the redwall from Labour and as a born again, anti woke Brexiteer she will lose Remain seats in the bluewall to the LDs.
Indeed if Truss wins I predict more Tory MPs will lose their seats than would have done had they stuck with Boris!
Yep. Wrong person. Wrong time. She’d gift the next election to Starmer.
Its likely all down to the flavour of Kemis backers.if they break for Truss heavily Mordaunt could get squeezed out here. Jesus, anyone but Truss from that 5
PM Truss will make Boris look like a bleeding heart liberal, it would be a Cabinet dominated by the ERG, she would be the puppet of Francois, IDS and Rees Mogg and Steve Baker as they would be the ones who got her the leadership
Absolutely right which is why I’m terrified that she might win. The Tories would deserve annihilation at the election.
Well, that might not be the worst outcome. I don't trust Mordaunt much further than @Cyclefree, and I notice her launch was long on cliché and short on information.
And surely, surely, even Sunak couldn't possibly lose to Truss.
In a world where Hillary lost to The Donald?
Sunak is not as bad as Trump. And Truss is far worse than Clinton.
(Arguably, that could be 'Truss isn't quite as bad as Trump, but Sunak is a far better candidate than Clinton.')
All I'm saying is, do you REALLY think that Truss beating Sunak is impossible?
Seems like dangerous assumption, from your just-stated point of view re: the two.
Nothing is impossible. It's even possible one day Johnson will say something truthful or Cummings will show a sign of intelligence.
But she's a poor public speaker, infamous for her lack of preparation in key roles, highly controversial, has an undeveloped policy offering and has been an embarrassment at the Foreign Office.
I don't think she stands much chance.
Serious question: how has she been an embassy at the FO? I would say she’s been more effective than Johnson and Raab.
Is she infamous for her lack of preparation? I hadn’t heard that.
How about the infamous time she thought Rostov on Don was in Ukraine?
Yes. The Left of the party have a strategic problem now. A dream Mordant/Sunak ticket might be the best way of shutting out the Right. But how do they execute it?
Truss is very transfer friendly.
There are two televised debates before the next vote, so it is possible one candidate will produce a Cleggasm, or another might do a David Davis and bore voters to his own political death.
Its likely all down to the flavour of Kemis backers.if they break for Truss heavily Mordaunt could get squeezed out here. Jesus, anyone but Truss from that 5
PM Truss will make Boris look like a bleeding heart liberal, it would be a Cabinet dominated by the ERG, she would be the puppet of Francois, IDS and Rees Mogg and Steve Baker as they would be the ones who got her the leadership
If Truss were in German politics, she'd be in the FDP. She's more classical liberal than hard right.
Well, that might not be the worst outcome. I don't trust Mordaunt much further than @Cyclefree, and I notice her launch was long on cliché and short on information.
And surely, surely, even Sunak couldn't possibly lose to Truss.
In a world where Hillary lost to The Donald?
Sunak is not as bad as Trump. And Truss is far worse than Clinton.
(Arguably, that could be 'Truss isn't quite as bad as Trump, but Sunak is a far better candidate than Clinton.')
All I'm saying is, do you REALLY think that Truss beating Sunak is impossible?
Seems like dangerous assumption, from your just-stated point of view re: the two.
Nothing is impossible. It's even possible one day Johnson will say something truthful or Cummings will show a sign of intelligence.
But she's a poor public speaker, infamous for her lack of preparation in key roles, highly controversial, has an undeveloped policy offering and has been an embarrassment at the Foreign Office.
I don't think she stands much chance.
Serious question: how has she been an embassy at the FO? I would say she’s been more effective than Johnson and Raab.
Is she infamous for her lack of preparation? I hadn’t heard that.
How about the infamous time she thought Rostov on Don was in Ukraine?
Personally I think that was overblown. It no way compares with Raab’s Afghanistan shambles, and Boris’s omni-shite.
Great news for Labour if Truss wins but a tragedy for the country who will have an ERG puppet in no 10 who will start a trade war with the EU and continue the horrible divisive politics of the Johnson years .
If Truss wins the leadership and becomes PM a Labour majority looks likely, as a slash spending, ex Remainer she won't win back the redwall from Labour and as a born again, anti woke Brexiteer she will lose Remain seats in the bluewall to the LDs.
Indeed if Truss wins I predict more Tory MPs will lose their seats than would have done had they stuck with Boris!
I think you mean blue wall seats lost to Liberals?
Plus - I really do think that not a single voter in the red wall seats of north or midlands will give a flying feck that Truss voted remain - 6 years ago. They wont even know she did. And if they do know they wont care compared to the economic shit storm happening now.
At least in Britain, when we get Johnson gone, most voters are thinking, “maybe we should try someone more sensible next time?”
Italians elect their Johnson to shake things up, then when nothing changes, they think “that didn’t work, maybe JRM will actually shake things up?”, then when that doesn’t work, “maybe Nadine will shake things up…”, turnout falling all the while as more and more people opt out altogether. Having Draghi imposed on them was a blessing, notwithstanding the way it was done.
Its likely all down to the flavour of Kemis backers.if they break for Truss heavily Mordaunt could get squeezed out here. Jesus, anyone but Truss from that 5
The question then becomes how much damage can she do in the 2 years before being thrashed by Labour at the next GE, and can sensible people do anything to limit the damage.
Because thrashed she would be. Not only is Truss a liability, but she would appoint a bunch of continuity clown show people to cabinet positions. She might even retain JRM and Dorries.
EDIT: I see many others have already made the same points.
Great news for Labour if Truss wins but a tragedy for the country who will have an ERG puppet in no 10 who will start a trade war with the EU and continue the horrible divisive politics of the Johnson years .
If Truss wins the leadership and becomes PM a Labour majority looks likely, as a slash spending, ex Remainer she won't win back the redwall from Labour and as a born again, anti woke Brexiteer she will lose Remain seats in the bluewall to the LDs.
Indeed if Truss wins I predict more Tory MPs will lose their seats than would have done had they stuck with Boris!
Yep. Wrong person. Wrong time. She’d gift the next election to Starmer.
Let's face it. The tories are out of ideas, out of energy, out of inspiration and soon, out of power. Sunak is damaged goods, Truss is a lightweight, the party doesn't trust Mordaunt and its too early for Kemi.
Truss's task will be limit the damage to maybe a hung parliament.
Now imagine that Tugendhat is also gone. None of his votes are going to Truss or Badenoch. Imagine they split 50:50 to Sunak/Mordaunt.
Sunak 117 Mordaunt 99 Truss 91 Badenoch 49
I contend that Badenochers - who include the entire Levelling Up department - will not then give Truss the numbers to send her over the top.
What makes you contend that? Genuinely curious - I agree that her support won't be as monolithically ideological as Braverman's. But predominently so, another to deliver a 10-vote net boost. And Sunak can't safely lend many votes to Mordaunt, or risk getting squeezed out by both of them, as I was arguing here two days ago.
Well, that might not be the worst outcome. I don't trust Mordaunt much further than @Cyclefree, and I notice her launch was long on cliché and short on information.
And surely, surely, even Sunak couldn't possibly lose to Truss.
In a world where Hillary lost to The Donald?
Sunak is not as bad as Trump. And Truss is far worse than Clinton.
(Arguably, that could be 'Truss isn't quite as bad as Trump, but Sunak is a far better candidate than Clinton.')
All I'm saying is, do you REALLY think that Truss beating Sunak is impossible?
Seems like dangerous assumption, from your just-stated point of view re: the two.
Nothing is impossible. It's even possible one day Johnson will say something truthful or Cummings will show a sign of intelligence.
But she's a poor public speaker, infamous for her lack of preparation in key roles, highly controversial, has an undeveloped policy offering and has been an embarrassment at the Foreign Office.
I don't think she stands much chance.
Serious question: how has she been an embassy at the FO? I would say she’s been more effective than Johnson and Raab.
Is she infamous for her lack of preparation? I hadn’t heard that.
How about the infamous time she thought Rostov on Don was in Ukraine?
Clearly not obsessed enough about the eastern front 1941 to 1945 like rather too many on pb have...
Its likely all down to the flavour of Kemis backers.if they break for Truss heavily Mordaunt could get squeezed out here. Jesus, anyone but Truss from that 5
PM Truss will make Boris look like a bleeding heart liberal, it would be a Cabinet dominated by the ERG, she would be the puppet of Francois, IDS and Rees Mogg and Steve Baker as they would be the ones who got her the leadership
Absolutely right which is why I’m terrified that she might win. The Tories would deserve annihilation at the election.
Now imagine that Tugendhat is also gone. None of his votes are going to Truss or Badenoch. Imagine they split 50:50 to Sunak/Mordaunt.
Sunak 117 Mordaunt 99 Truss 91 Badenoch 49
I contend that Badenochers - who include the entire Levelling Up department - will not then give Truss the numbers to send her over the top.
What makes you contend that? Genuinely curious - I agree that her support won't be as monolithically ideological as Braverman's. But predominently so, another to deliver a 10-vote net boost. And Sunak can't safely lend many votes to Mordaunt, or risk getting squeezed out by both of them, as I was arguing here two days ago.
Agree on Sunak’s position.
As for my belief about the Badenochers, it is from looking at who is publicly supporting her and indeed who is supporting her on this board.
It’s notable that there are few (no?) pro-Trussers posting; for example. She is not at all transfer friendly unless, like Steve Baker, ideology trumps all.
Its likely all down to the flavour of Kemis backers.if they break for Truss heavily Mordaunt could get squeezed out here. Jesus, anyone but Truss from that 5
PM Truss will make Boris look like a bleeding heart liberal, it would be a Cabinet dominated by the ERG, she would be the puppet of Francois, IDS and Rees Mogg and Steve Baker as they would be the ones who got her the leadership
Absolutely right which is why I’m terrified that she might win. The Tories would deserve annihilation at the election.
Much as I have slagged off the lying cad clown I have always been worried that what follows would be worse.
Its likely all down to the flavour of Kemis backers.if they break for Truss heavily Mordaunt could get squeezed out here. Jesus, anyone but Truss from that 5
PM Truss will make Boris look like a bleeding heart liberal, it would be a Cabinet dominated by the ERG, she would be the puppet of Francois, IDS and Rees Mogg and Steve Baker as they would be the ones who got her the leadership
Agreed. Would you resign your membership in protest?
No, I retained my membership even under IDS though I would expect a thrashing at the next general election
Its likely all down to the flavour of Kemis backers.if they break for Truss heavily Mordaunt could get squeezed out here. Jesus, anyone but Truss from that 5
PM Truss will make Boris look like a bleeding heart liberal, it would be a Cabinet dominated by the ERG, she would be the puppet of Francois, IDS and Rees Mogg and Steve Baker as they would be the ones who got her the leadership
Absolutely right which is why I’m terrified that she might win. The Tories would deserve annihilation at the election.
Much as I have slagged off the lying cad clown I have always been worried that what follows would be worse.
Hmmmm Times scoop on Braverman says 'half' her backers are expected to follow her. Surely not enough? Leaves Truss adrift by a handful with the Tug Boaters to come in for Penny in part.... maybe 15 Tuggers for Penny leaving her 20 clear (if half Braverman are Trusstifarians), and with Kemi on about 60 with the rest of Bravermans theyd need to break very hard for Truss for her to get past. At least 2 to 1, probably more. Interesting.
If Truss wins the leadership and becomes PM a Labour majority looks likely, as a slash spending, ex Remainer she won't win back the redwall from Labour and as a born again, anti woke Brexiteer she will lose Remain seats in the bluewall to the LDs.
Indeed if Truss wins I predict more Tory MPs will lose their seats than would have done had they stuck with Boris!
As I opined a couple of nights ago, there seems to be a clear three-way divide within the Parliamentary Party.
Supporters of Sunak, Mordaunt and I suspect Truss (though whether Braverman's supporters will switch en bloc or perhaps more will go to Badenoch I don't know) each seem to have around 120 potential supporters.
Do you think the 1922 should amend the rules and allow the top three candidates to go to the membership to allow as wide as possible a range of views to be presented and debated?
Seems to be Stop Penny time. If they want a clean break then stopping the candidate whose first instinct isn't to be truthful makes some sense, I guess. Don't really get the visceral anti-Truss sentiment tbh. Sure she's a poor speaker.
Great news for Labour if Truss wins but a tragedy for the country who will have an ERG puppet in no 10 who will start a trade war with the EU and continue the horrible divisive politics of the Johnson years .
If Truss wins the leadership and becomes PM a Labour majority looks likely, as a slash spending, ex Remainer she won't win back the redwall from Labour and as a born again, anti woke Brexiteer she will lose Remain seats in the bluewall to the LDs.
Indeed if Truss wins I predict more Tory MPs will lose their seats than would have done had they stuck with Boris!
Its likely all down to the flavour of Kemis backers.if they break for Truss heavily Mordaunt could get squeezed out here. Jesus, anyone but Truss from that 5
PM Truss will make Boris look like a bleeding heart liberal, it would be a Cabinet dominated by the ERG, she would be the puppet of Francois, IDS and Rees Mogg and Steve Baker as they would be the ones who got her the leadership
Absolutely right which is why I’m terrified that she might win. The Tories would deserve annihilation at the election.
She's the female IDS.
…But as Prime Minister!
And in a Sunak-Truss battle, I’ll find myself supporting the same candidate as Dominic Raab. And that’s something I never thought could possibly happen.
Great news for Labour if Truss wins but a tragedy for the country who will have an ERG puppet in no 10 who will start a trade war with the EU and continue the horrible divisive politics of the Johnson years .
If Truss wins the leadership and becomes PM a Labour majority looks likely, as a slash spending, ex Remainer she won't win back the redwall from Labour and as a born again, anti woke Brexiteer she will lose Remain seats in the bluewall to the LDs.
Indeed if Truss wins I predict more Tory MPs will lose their seats than would have done had they stuck with Boris!
Yep. Wrong person. Wrong time. She’d gift the next election to Starmer.
Let's face it. The tories are out of ideas, out of energy, out of inspiration and soon, out of power. Sunak is damaged goods, Truss is a lightweight, the party doesn't trust Mordaunt and its too early for Kemi.
Truss's task will be limit the damage to maybe a hung parliament.
Sunak or Mordaunt might be able to limit the damage to largest party in a hung parliament or even a small majority, no candidate will match Boris' majority of 80 in 2019.
Truss however likely increases the damage and makes a Labour majority or Labour-LD coalition the likely outcome
Now imagine that Tugendhat is also gone. None of his votes are going to Truss or Badenoch. Imagine they split 50:50 to Sunak/Mordaunt.
Sunak 117 Mordaunt 99 Truss 91 Badenoch 49
I contend that Badenochers - who include the entire Levelling Up department - will not then give Truss the numbers to send her over the top.
What makes you contend that? Genuinely curious - I agree that her support won't be as monolithically ideological as Braverman's. But predominently so, another to deliver a 10-vote net boost. And Sunak can't safely lend many votes to Mordaunt, or risk getting squeezed out by both of them, as I was arguing here two days ago.
Agree on Sunak’s position.
As for my belief about the Badenochers, it is from looking at who is publicly supporting her and indeed who is supporting her on this board.
It’s notable that there are few (no?) pro-Trussers posting; for example. She is not at all transfer friendly unless, like Steve Baker, ideology trumps all.
I agree that there’s nothing in the Braverman endorsement that really changes things up from yesterday other than we now know it’s pretty certain Truss is into the final 3 and the chances of Kemi overtaking her have probably ended now. Her whole hope was to leapfrog Truss but that doesn’t look possible anymore.
So we are now back to whether Rishi and Penny can make 120 in advance of Truss. They have the Tugendhat withdrawal/loss to come which will each boost them. The question then becomes where Badenoch’s voters go and I do not believe they will fold into Truss.
Sunak v Penny most likely. There are outside chances of Penny v Truss and Sunak v Truss but I think these are far less likely as things currently stand.
Its likely all down to the flavour of Kemis backers.if they break for Truss heavily Mordaunt could get squeezed out here. Jesus, anyone but Truss from that 5
PM Truss will make Boris look like a bleeding heart liberal, it would be a Cabinet dominated by the ERG, she would be the puppet of Francois, IDS and Rees Mogg and Steve Baker as they would be the ones who got her the leadership
Absolutely right which is why I’m terrified that she might win. The Tories would deserve annihilation at the election.
Its likely all down to the flavour of Kemis backers.if they break for Truss heavily Mordaunt could get squeezed out here. Jesus, anyone but Truss from that 5
PM Truss will make Boris look like a bleeding heart liberal, it would be a Cabinet dominated by the ERG, she would be the puppet of Francois, IDS and Rees Mogg and Steve Baker as they would be the ones who got her the leadership
Absolutely right which is why I’m terrified that she might win. The Tories would deserve annihilation at the election.
She's the female IDS.
She’d get to fight an election though. She’d utterly flame out but she’d fight it.
Its likely all down to the flavour of Kemis backers.if they break for Truss heavily Mordaunt could get squeezed out here. Jesus, anyone but Truss from that 5
PM Truss will make Boris look like a bleeding heart liberal, it would be a Cabinet dominated by the ERG, she would be the puppet of Francois, IDS and Rees Mogg and Steve Baker as they would be the ones who got her the leadership
Absolutely right which is why I’m terrified that she might win. The Tories would deserve annihilation at the election.
She's the female IDS.
She’d get to fight an election though. She’d utterly flame out but she’d fight it.
Great news for Labour if Truss wins but a tragedy for the country who will have an ERG puppet in no 10 who will start a trade war with the EU and continue the horrible divisive politics of the Johnson years .
If Truss wins the leadership and becomes PM a Labour majority looks likely, as a slash spending, ex Remainer she won't win back the redwall from Labour and as a born again, anti woke Brexiteer she will lose Remain seats in the bluewall to the LDs.
Indeed if Truss wins I predict more Tory MPs will lose their seats than would have done had they stuck with Boris!
I think you mean blue wall seats lost to Liberals?
Plus - I really do think that not a single voter in the red wall seats of north or midlands will give a flying feck that Truss voted remain - 6 years ago. They wont even know she did. And if they do know they wont care compared to the economic shit storm happening now.
They will care about the deep public spending cuts Truss wants to push through, she will be toxic to the redwall as much as her new hard as diamonds Brexit, anti Woke ERG agenda would be toxic to the bluewall
Seems to be Stop Penny time. If they want a clean break then stopping the candidate whose first instinct isn't to be truthful makes some sense, I guess. Don't really get the visceral anti-Truss sentiment tbh. Sure she's a poor speaker.
"whose first instinct isn't to be truthful "
This lack of truthfulness on Mordaunt's part is becoming written as lore. What is the evidence for it, compared to the average politician?
They may end up doing each other so much damage that Sunak sneaks through relatively unscathed and gets the members vote after all. Or Kemi, because she’s not well known enough for her opponents to hate her yet.
Its likely all down to the flavour of Kemis backers.if they break for Truss heavily Mordaunt could get squeezed out here. Jesus, anyone but Truss from that 5
PM Truss will make Boris look like a bleeding heart liberal, it would be a Cabinet dominated by the ERG, she would be the puppet of Francois, IDS and Rees Mogg and Steve Baker as they would be the ones who got her the leadership
Absolutely right which is why I’m terrified that she might win. The Tories would deserve annihilation at the election.
She's the female IDS.
She’d get to fight an election though. She’d utterly flame out but she’d fight it.
Nah, she's get VONCed next autumn.
Indeed. Can't help feeling we will all be back here debating next leader this time next year.
Nobody has posted the briefing from No.10 which claims that Boris “carried the can for the bad behaviour of others - including his most fierce and shameless opponents”.
Seems to be Stop Penny time. If they want a clean break then stopping the candidate whose first instinct isn't to be truthful makes some sense, I guess. Don't really get the visceral anti-Truss sentiment tbh. Sure she's a poor speaker.
She’s massively gaffe prone. Her encouragement of people to go fight in Ukraine was hugely problematic, arguably it could lead to the deaths of 2 UK citizens. Also I had to guffaw when she went large on her sense of loyalty, I wondered what her husband might think of that.
Its likely all down to the flavour of Kemis backers.if they break for Truss heavily Mordaunt could get squeezed out here. Jesus, anyone but Truss from that 5
PM Truss will make Boris look like a bleeding heart liberal, it would be a Cabinet dominated by the ERG, she would be the puppet of Francois, IDS and Rees Mogg and Steve Baker as they would be the ones who got her the leadership
If Truss were in German politics, she'd be in the FDP. She's more classical liberal than hard right.
FDP politics is the polar opposite of what the redwall wanted when they voted for Boris
Hmmmm Times scoop on Braverman says 'half' her backers are expected to follow her. Surely not enough? Leaves Truss adrift by a handful with the Tug Boaters to come in for Penny in part.... maybe 15 Tuggers for Penny leaving her 20 clear (if half Braverman are Trusstifarians), and with Kemi on about 60 with the rest of Bravermans theyd need to break very hard for Truss for her to get past. At least 2 to 1, probably more. Interesting.
The personal dynamics might suddenly become very important. If you're Badenoch and your "Bestie no Blue on Blue Braverman" has just done a politician 180 and stuck a blade in your back, are you going to back Truss?
A couple of days ago, I received my voter's pamphet for the August 2nd primary here in the Seattle area. You can see the information in it by going to the King County election site: https://kingcounty.gov/depts/elections.aspx And then clicking on "Learn about candidates and measures on the ballot".
As usual, there are some unusual candidates on the ballot. (Though none quite as unusual as the Democrat running for Senate six years ago who promised to solve the North Korean problem, with . . . 30,000 cruise missiles.)
Our senior senator, Patty Murray, who most think is safe, has drawn no fewer than 17 opponents, and has been running negative ads against one of them, Tiffany Smiley. (Appropriately, Smiley has the best smile of the group. Also appropriately (in my opinion), Leon Lawson, a Trump Republican, looks actually threatening in his photo.)
Either SeaShantyIrish2 or I can probably answer most of the questions you might have on this top-two primary.
Its likely all down to the flavour of Kemis backers.if they break for Truss heavily Mordaunt could get squeezed out here. Jesus, anyone but Truss from that 5
PM Truss will make Boris look like a bleeding heart liberal, it would be a Cabinet dominated by the ERG, she would be the puppet of Francois, IDS and Rees Mogg and Steve Baker as they would be the ones who got her the leadership
Absolutely right which is why I’m terrified that she might win. The Tories would deserve annihilation at the election.
She's the female IDS.
"The strident woman is here to stay, and she's turning up the frequency."
Its likely all down to the flavour of Kemis backers.if they break for Truss heavily Mordaunt could get squeezed out here. Jesus, anyone but Truss from that 5
PM Truss will make Boris look like a bleeding heart liberal, it would be a Cabinet dominated by the ERG, she would be the puppet of Francois, IDS and Rees Mogg and Steve Baker as they would be the ones who got her the leadership
Absolutely right which is why I’m terrified that she might win. The Tories would deserve annihilation at the election.
She's the female IDS.
…But as Prime Minister!
And in a Sunak-Truss battle, I’ll find myself supporting the same candidate as Dominic Raab. And that’s something I never thought could possibly happen.
They may go for ideological and Brexit purity matched with a heavy dose of personality free politics and spend a post 2024 period in opposition or stand a sporting chance in 2024 with Mordaunt.
It's not a tough one for those with more than a few brain cells to rub together but then there do appear to be more than several dozen for whom the hair shirt and political self flagellation is utterly admirable.
Jessica Elgot @jessicaelgot · 2h Boris Johnson is planning a farewell party at Chequers this weekend - but he wants to stick on the backbenches for now.
Allies suggest he will ask tricky questions on Ukraine, levelling up and NI protocol bill, the three things he fears could slip
Its likely all down to the flavour of Kemis backers.if they break for Truss heavily Mordaunt could get squeezed out here. Jesus, anyone but Truss from that 5
PM Truss will make Boris look like a bleeding heart liberal, it would be a Cabinet dominated by the ERG, she would be the puppet of Francois, IDS and Rees Mogg and Steve Baker as they would be the ones who got her the leadership
Absolutely right which is why I’m terrified that she might win. The Tories would deserve annihilation at the election.
She's the female IDS.
She’d get to fight an election though. She’d utterly flame out but she’d fight it.
Nah, she's get VONCed next autumn.
No the party would be lumbered, no way the public would accept them booting out two leaders in little over a year.
Just seen Robert Buckland fighting Rishi Sunak's corner on Piers Morgan - almost my first foray onto Talk TV.
Buckland seemed to be arguing Sunak was the only "sensible" candidate on the economy and tax - Morgan pointed out the Conservative Party membership like the words "tax cuts" - apparently "it's human nature" (not sure about that) and Sunak, "even if he's probably right" will struggle to overcome that.
Jessica Elgot @jessicaelgot · 2h Boris Johnson is planning a farewell party at Chequers this weekend - but he wants to stick on the backbenches for now.
Allies suggest he will ask tricky questions on Ukraine, levelling up and NI protocol bill, the three things he fears could slip
Oh please. The idea he will even bother turning up regularly is for the birds.
He barely bothered about things slipping when he was PM, why should he as a disgraced backbench MP?
If Truss wins the leadership and becomes PM a Labour majority looks likely, as a slash spending, ex Remainer she won't win back the redwall from Labour and as a born again, anti woke Brexiteer she will lose Remain seats in the bluewall to the LDs.
Indeed if Truss wins I predict more Tory MPs will lose their seats than would have done had they stuck with Boris!
As I opined a couple of nights ago, there seems to be a clear three-way divide within the Parliamentary Party.
Supporters of Sunak, Mordaunt and I suspect Truss (though whether Braverman's supporters will switch en bloc or perhaps more will go to Badenoch I don't know) each seem to have around 120 potential supporters.
Do you think the 1922 should amend the rules and allow the top three candidates to go to the membership to allow as wide as possible a range of views to be presented and debated?
That might be Sunak's only chance to win but the 1922 won't
They may go for ideological and Brexit purity matched with a heavy dose of personality free politics and spend a post 2024 period in opposition or stand a sporting chance in 2024 with Mordaunt.
It's not a tough one for those with more than a few brain cells to rub together but then there do appear to be more than several dozen for whom the hair shirt and political self flagellation is utterly admirable.
Okay serious talk here as someone who has seen their party do this: Don't. It fucking sucks and you'll end up with a moderate anyway who will then have to embark on two or more years of purges to make you electable. Doubly don't when it's the PM you're chosing.
Seems to be Stop Penny time. If they want a clean break then stopping the candidate whose first instinct isn't to be truthful makes some sense, I guess. Don't really get the visceral anti-Truss sentiment tbh. Sure she's a poor speaker.
She’s massively gaffe prone. Her encouragement of people to go fight in Ukraine was hugely problematic, arguably it could lead to the deaths of 2 UK citizens. Also I had to guffaw when she went large on her sense of loyalty, I wondered what her husband might think of that.
Jessica Elgot @jessicaelgot · 2h Boris Johnson is planning a farewell party at Chequers this weekend - but he wants to stick on the backbenches for now.
Allies suggest he will ask tricky questions on Ukraine, levelling up and NI protocol bill, the three things he fears could slip
Oh please. The idea he will even bother turning up regularly is for the birds.
I don't see why not. He'd see it as his Churchill in the wilderness period and find some issue to give portentous speeches about from the backbenches.
Seems to be Stop Penny time. If they want a clean break then stopping the candidate whose first instinct isn't to be truthful makes some sense, I guess. Don't really get the visceral anti-Truss sentiment tbh. Sure she's a poor speaker.
"whose first instinct isn't to be truthful "
This lack of truthfulness on Mordaunt's part is becoming written as lore. What is the evidence for it, compared to the average politician?
It seems to be frequently cited by her colleagues. Braverman objects to her changing the wording of woman in a bill. She says she didn't. She claimed to have set up an investigation into the number of girls transitioning. People involved say she had nowt to do with it. The fixation with trans runs deep. It may cost her.
One thing I have noticed is the increasing frequency of British people in very nice cars delivering my Amazon packages. I am guessing via Flex system because they need some cash to make the payments on the motor.
This might also explain why the quality of Hermes deliveries have improved.
Evri, do keep up…
They will always be Hermes to me. Never forget. Never forgive.
If Truss wins the leadership and becomes PM a Labour majority looks likely, as a slash spending, ex Remainer she won't win back the redwall from Labour and as a born again, anti woke Brexiteer she will lose Remain seats in the bluewall to the LDs.
Indeed if Truss wins I predict more Tory MPs will lose their seats than would have done had they stuck with Boris!
As I opined a couple of nights ago, there seems to be a clear three-way divide within the Parliamentary Party.
Supporters of Sunak, Mordaunt and I suspect Truss (though whether Braverman's supporters will switch en bloc or perhaps more will go to Badenoch I don't know) each seem to have around 120 potential supporters.
Do you think the 1922 should amend the rules and allow the top three candidates to go to the membership to allow as wide as possible a range of views to be presented and debated?
That might be Sunak's only chance to win but the 1922 won't
Does Sunak lose to Truss in a membership ballot? I assume he'll be Davis to Mordaunt's Cameron if Penny makes the top two but I'm not wholly convinced she won't be squeezed out by some tactical voting from the Truss/Badenoch group who would much rather face Sunak than Mordaunt.
Its likely all down to the flavour of Kemis backers.if they break for Truss heavily Mordaunt could get squeezed out here. Jesus, anyone but Truss from that 5
PM Truss will make Boris look like a bleeding heart liberal, it would be a Cabinet dominated by the ERG, she would be the puppet of Francois, IDS and Rees Mogg and Steve Baker as they would be the ones who got her the leadership
Absolutely right which is why I’m terrified that she might win. The Tories would deserve annihilation at the election.
She's the female IDS.
She’d get to fight an election though. She’d utterly flame out but she’d fight it.
Nah, she's get VONCed next autumn.
No the party would be lumbered, no way the public would accept them booting out two leaders in little over a year.
Another issue here is that, if Truss does something mental like back the ERG line on everything, there are 120 odd MPs who are in the Sunakian camp that will not be pleased with this. Can Truss even guarantee passing legislation at that point?
Re the 1922 changing rules. I'd go for the following..... Run off is top 2 unless all 3 get 100 or more MPs support in which case it will be a three way vote with second preferences of the third place candidate redistributed until 50% breached
If Truss was in the Final she could not win as either Sunak or Mordaunt would beat her very easily amongst MPs.
So Truss will have the support of well under 50% of MPs - which means MPs can remove her by no confidencing her.
OK, they will have to give her a reasonable chance but there is time. They give her 12 months - she'll be miles behind in the polls - and then they no confidence her - which will be certain to succeed.
Jessica Elgot @jessicaelgot · 2h Boris Johnson is planning a farewell party at Chequers this weekend - but he wants to stick on the backbenches for now.
Allies suggest he will ask tricky questions on Ukraine, levelling up and NI protocol bill, the three things he fears could slip
Oh please. The idea he will even bother turning up regularly is for the birds.
I don't see why not. He'd see it as his Churchill in the wilderness period and find some issue to give portentous speeches about from the backbenches.
I’m sure he fantasises about this. But it would involve actually putting some effort in, which is foreign to him unless there is a direct pay-off.
Just seen Robert Buckland fighting Rishi Sunak's corner on Piers Morgan - almost my first foray onto Talk TV.
Buckland seemed to be arguing Sunak was the only "sensible" candidate on the economy and tax - Morgan pointed out the Conservative Party membership like the words "tax cuts" - apparently "it's human nature" (not sure about that) and Sunak, "even if he's probably right" will struggle to overcome that.
Seems to be Stop Penny time. If they want a clean break then stopping the candidate whose first instinct isn't to be truthful makes some sense, I guess. Don't really get the visceral anti-Truss sentiment tbh. Sure she's a poor speaker.
Might be a rather trivial reason, but the Thatcher cosplay makes me want to puke.
What high office of state has Braverman been promised should Truss win?
Home Office?
Seems a good fit. She could reintroduce hulk ships in the Thames and make sure the workhouses are taking in enough idlers on benefits to keep them in business.
And there's work to do on the death penalty for anyone caught stealing sheep.
I hope it's not Education.
While from a selfish point of view her policies would cause demand for private tuition to skyrocket, that wouldn't compensate for further damage to the lives of millions of children.
Seems to be Stop Penny time. If they want a clean break then stopping the candidate whose first instinct isn't to be truthful makes some sense, I guess. Don't really get the visceral anti-Truss sentiment tbh. Sure she's a poor speaker.
She’s massively gaffe prone. Her encouragement of people to go fight in Ukraine was hugely problematic, arguably it could lead to the deaths of 2 UK citizens. Also I had to guffaw when she went large on her sense of loyalty, I wondered what her husband might think of that.
She literally finished her speech today by walking out the wrong way. In a one door room
If Truss was in the Final she could not win as either Sunak or Mordaunt would beat her very easily amongst MPs.
So Truss will have the support of well under 50% of MPs - which means MPs can remove her by no confidencing her.
OK, they will have to give her a reasonable chance but there is time. They give her 12 months - she'll be miles behind in the polls - and then they no confidence her - which will be certain to succeed.
Seems to be Stop Penny time. If they want a clean break then stopping the candidate whose first instinct isn't to be truthful makes some sense, I guess. Don't really get the visceral anti-Truss sentiment tbh. Sure she's a poor speaker.
She’s massively gaffe prone. Her encouragement of people to go fight in Ukraine was hugely problematic, arguably it could lead to the deaths of 2 UK citizens. Also I had to guffaw when she went large on her sense of loyalty, I wondered what her husband might think of that.
She literally finished her speech today by walking out the wrong way. In a one door room
Seems to be Stop Penny time. If they want a clean break then stopping the candidate whose first instinct isn't to be truthful makes some sense, I guess. Don't really get the visceral anti-Truss sentiment tbh. Sure she's a poor speaker.
She’s massively gaffe prone. Her encouragement of people to go fight in Ukraine was hugely problematic, arguably it could lead to the deaths of 2 UK citizens. Also I had to guffaw when she went large on her sense of loyalty, I wondered what her husband might think of that.
She literally finished her speech today by walking out the wrong way. In a one door room
Its likely all down to the flavour of Kemis backers.if they break for Truss heavily Mordaunt could get squeezed out here. Jesus, anyone but Truss from that 5
There have been so many votes for fresh start candidates that I don't think there are enough votes for Sunak and Truss to both make the final two. I'm expecting enough of the MPs who voted for Braverman, Tugendhat and Badenoch to support Mordaunt and send her to the members.
I'm not sure who else makes it. If you view the candidates and their supporters through ideology, then Truss should get enough transfers from Braverman and Badenoch to squeeze out Sunak. But if Badenoch supporters are to an extent Gove acolytes, they're hardly likely to want to support Truss, as continuity Boris. So then it is Truss who falls short.
Seems to be Stop Penny time. If they want a clean break then stopping the candidate whose first instinct isn't to be truthful makes some sense, I guess. Don't really get the visceral anti-Truss sentiment tbh. Sure she's a poor speaker.
"whose first instinct isn't to be truthful "
This lack of truthfulness on Mordaunt's part is becoming written as lore. What is the evidence for it, compared to the average politician?
What is the evidence Ronnie Kray was a villain, compared to other criminals?
If Truss wins the leadership and becomes PM a Labour majority looks likely, as a slash spending, ex Remainer she won't win back the redwall from Labour and as a born again, anti woke Brexiteer she will lose Remain seats in the bluewall to the LDs.
Indeed if Truss wins I predict more Tory MPs will lose their seats than would have done had they stuck with Boris!
As I opined a couple of nights ago, there seems to be a clear three-way divide within the Parliamentary Party.
Supporters of Sunak, Mordaunt and I suspect Truss (though whether Braverman's supporters will switch en bloc or perhaps more will go to Badenoch I don't know) each seem to have around 120 potential supporters.
Do you think the 1922 should amend the rules and allow the top three candidates to go to the membership to allow as wide as possible a range of views to be presented and debated?
That might be Sunak's only chance to win but the 1922 won't
Does Sunak lose to Truss in a membership ballot? I assume he'll be Davis to Mordaunt's Cameron if Penny makes the top two but I'm not wholly convinced she won't be squeezed out by some tactical voting from the Truss/Badenoch group who would much rather face Sunak than Mordaunt.
Truss will not know which way Badenochs votes are going in the final vote, so she will not have spare votes to 'tinker' I dont think any of them will have the votes to risk it actuallly
Its likely all down to the flavour of Kemis backers.if they break for Truss heavily Mordaunt could get squeezed out here. Jesus, anyone but Truss from that 5
PM Truss will make Boris look like a bleeding heart liberal, it would be a Cabinet dominated by the ERG, she would be the puppet of Francois, IDS and Rees Mogg and Steve Baker as they would be the ones who got her the leadership
Absolutely right which is why I’m terrified that she might win. The Tories would deserve annihilation at the election.
She's the female IDS.
She’d get to fight an election though. She’d utterly flame out but she’d fight it.
Nah, she's get VONCed next autumn.
No the party would be lumbered, no way the public would accept them booting out two leaders in little over a year.
I agree. This leader will take the Tories into 2024 and they have to approach the election on that basis.
There is no easy way out in case of buyers remorse. If they elect Truss then they fight 2024 with Truss and will have to face up to the electoral armageddon that will result.
Its likely all down to the flavour of Kemis backers.if they break for Truss heavily Mordaunt could get squeezed out here. Jesus, anyone but Truss from that 5
There have been so many votes for fresh start candidates that I don't think there are enough votes for Sunak and Truss to both make the final two. I'm expecting enough of the MPs who voted for Braverman, Tugendhat and Badenoch to support Mordaunt and send her to the members.
I'm not sure who else makes it. If you view the candidates and their supporters through ideology, then Truss should get enough transfers from Braverman and Badenoch to squeeze out Sunak. But if Badenoch supporters are to an extent Gove acolytes, they're hardly likely to want to support Truss, as continuity Boris. So then it is Truss who falls short.
Hmm, that's a point. Who does Gove back between those two? He doesn't strike me as the type to have any love for Lady Big Hat.
Its likely all down to the flavour of Kemis backers.if they break for Truss heavily Mordaunt could get squeezed out here. Jesus, anyone but Truss from that 5
PM Truss will make Boris look like a bleeding heart liberal, it would be a Cabinet dominated by the ERG, she would be the puppet of Francois, IDS and Rees Mogg and Steve Baker as they would be the ones who got her the leadership
Absolutely right which is why I’m terrified that she might win. The Tories would deserve annihilation at the election.
She's the female IDS.
She’d get to fight an election though. She’d utterly flame out but she’d fight it.
Nah, she's get VONCed next autumn.
Anyone know what the rules are there?
In practice, any party VOMCing a newly-elected leader would look pretty desperate.
But is there any formal equivalent of the 12 month immunity (unless you really hack off the '22) a leader gets from winning a VONC?
I always enjoy a piece by Cyclefree, even more so when it comes from the high ground and we should always expect better of our politicians.
The reality is that few will cast their ballot in the expectation that their candidate is a paragon of virtue, more that we chose the least worst and hope for more.
Competence would be a start, let alone virtue. As mentioned on Spectator TV and elsewhere, whoever wins will be leading a country where prices are rocketing, there may be fuel shortages, no-one can see their doctor and muggers and murderers roam our streets untroubled by the constabulary. The government will need to establish it can get things done, now that firefighting Covid has disappeared as an excuse.
None of the candidates so far seems to be addressing this, aside from fairytale tax cuts.
On the "no-one can see a doctor" thing... A couple of weeks ago I felt a lump on one of my testicles. Rang my GP's surgery about 3pm. Could I come in for 4pm that afternoon? I did. Doctor saw me on time, pronounced it was probably a cyst rather than anything more serious, but wanted to get the ultrasound people to take a quick look just in case, also wanted to do some blood tests. Blood tests booked for the following Monday (this was a Thursday), Ultrasound booked for today (I.e. two weeks).
Upshot is that two weeks from the initial phone call I've had a consultation, tests and an all clear. (I'll probably have a phone call with the doctor when he gets the results back, but the ultrasound operator was pretty clear it is just a cyst). Oh, and all done in my local town (pop approx 25k).
Now, clearly my experiences aren't universal, but as someone who hadn't seen a doctor for years, and had got the impression from the media that the whole system was on the brink of collapse, I was quite pleasantly surprised by how uncollapsed at least my local bit of it seems to be.
Its likely all down to the flavour of Kemis backers.if they break for Truss heavily Mordaunt could get squeezed out here. Jesus, anyone but Truss from that 5
There have been so many votes for fresh start candidates that I don't think there are enough votes for Sunak and Truss to both make the final two. I'm expecting enough of the MPs who voted for Braverman, Tugendhat and Badenoch to support Mordaunt and send her to the members.
I'm not sure who else makes it. If you view the candidates and their supporters through ideology, then Truss should get enough transfers from Braverman and Badenoch to squeeze out Sunak. But if Badenoch supporters are to an extent Gove acolytes, they're hardly likely to want to support Truss, as continuity Boris. So then it is Truss who falls short.
Hmm, that's a point. Who does Gove back between those two? He doesn't strike me as the type to have any love for Lady Big Hat.
Its likely all down to the flavour of Kemis backers.if they break for Truss heavily Mordaunt could get squeezed out here. Jesus, anyone but Truss from that 5
PM Truss will make Boris look like a bleeding heart liberal, it would be a Cabinet dominated by the ERG, she would be the puppet of Francois, IDS and Rees Mogg and Steve Baker as they would be the ones who got her the leadership
Absolutely right which is why I’m terrified that she might win. The Tories would deserve annihilation at the election.
She's the female IDS.
She’d get to fight an election though. She’d utterly flame out but she’d fight it.
Nah, she's get VONCed next autumn.
Anyone know what the rules are there?
In practice, any party VOMCing a newly-elected leader would look pretty desperate.
But is there any formal equivalent of the 12 month immunity (unless you really hack off the '22) a leader gets from winning a VONC?
I thought I had read somewhere that the new leader gets a 12 month immunity but it could be changed if the 1922 exec wanted to do so.
So I reckon it would need 50% +1 of Tory MPs to send a letter to Sir Graham.
If MPs can no confidence a PM who they overwhelmingly supported and who won an 80 seat majority they can certainly no confidence a PM who they never supported in the first place, has never won an election and who is tanking in the opinion polls.
The saving grace is there is time - if Boris was going next summer then there wouldn't be.
Its likely all down to the flavour of Kemis backers.if they break for Truss heavily Mordaunt could get squeezed out here. Jesus, anyone but Truss from that 5
PM Truss will make Boris look like a bleeding heart liberal, it would be a Cabinet dominated by the ERG, she would be the puppet of Francois, IDS and Rees Mogg and Steve Baker as they would be the ones who got her the leadership
Absolutely right which is why I’m terrified that she might win. The Tories would deserve annihilation at the election.
She's the female IDS.
She’d get to fight an election though. She’d utterly flame out but she’d fight it.
Nah, she's get VONCed next autumn.
Anyone know what the rules are there?
In practice, any party VOMCing a newly-elected leader would look pretty desperate.
But is there any formal equivalent of the 12 month immunity (unless you really hack off the '22) a leader gets from winning a VONC?
They could always save time on an election by simply VONCing the candidates before they start.
Its likely all down to the flavour of Kemis backers.if they break for Truss heavily Mordaunt could get squeezed out here. Jesus, anyone but Truss from that 5
The question then becomes how much damage can she do in the 2 years before being thrashed by Labour at the next GE, and can sensible people do anything to limit the damage.
Because thrashed she would be. Not only is Truss a liability, but she would appoint a bunch of continuity clown show people to cabinet positions. She might even retain JRM and Dorries.
EDIT: I see many others have already made the same points.
It is possible Boris's resignation honours list will see both Dorries and Rees-Mogg elevated to the House of Lords, away from front-line politics.
If Truss gets through I think she beats Sunak . A truly horrific state of affairs .
Not if you want Labour to win.
Many Labour supporters want what is best for the country (in their eyes) rather than what is best for Labour in terms of narrow political advantage. So they want to see the Tory Right shut out, even though that makes winning the next GE much harder.
Seems to be Stop Penny time. If they want a clean break then stopping the candidate whose first instinct isn't to be truthful makes some sense, I guess. Don't really get the visceral anti-Truss sentiment tbh. Sure she's a poor speaker.
She’s massively gaffe prone. Her encouragement of people to go fight in Ukraine was hugely problematic, arguably it could lead to the deaths of 2 UK citizens. Also I had to guffaw when she went large on her sense of loyalty, I wondered what her husband might think of that.
She literally finished her speech today by walking out the wrong way. In a one door room
I always enjoy a piece by Cyclefree, even more so when it comes from the high ground and we should always expect better of our politicians.
The reality is that few will cast their ballot in the expectation that their candidate is a paragon of virtue, more that we chose the least worst and hope for more.
Competence would be a start, let alone virtue. As mentioned on Spectator TV and elsewhere, whoever wins will be leading a country where prices are rocketing, there may be fuel shortages, no-one can see their doctor and muggers and murderers roam our streets untroubled by the constabulary. The government will need to establish it can get things done, now that firefighting Covid has disappeared as an excuse.
None of the candidates so far seems to be addressing this, aside from fairytale tax cuts.
On the "no-one can see a doctor" thing... A couple of weeks ago I felt a lump on one of my testicles. Rang my GP's surgery about 3pm. Could I come in for 4pm that afternoon? I did. Doctor saw me on time, pronounced it was probably a cyst rather than anything more serious, but wanted to get the ultrasound people to take a quick look just in case, also wanted to do some blood tests. Blood tests booked for the following Monday (this was a Thursday), Ultrasound booked for today (I.e. two weeks).
Upshot is that two weeks from the initial phone call I've had a consultation, tests and an all clear. (I'll probably have a phone call with the doctor when he gets the results back, but the ultrasound operator was pretty clear it is just a cyst). Oh, and all done in my local town (pop approx 25k).
Now, clearly my experiences aren't universal, but as someone who hadn't seen a doctor for years, and had got the impression from the media that the whole system was on the brink of collapse, I was quite pleasantly surprised by how uncollapsed at least my local bit of it seems to be.
Yes, the system of telephone triage works well for urgent things.
Also yesterday's GDP figures* included a significant increase in GP visits, so clearly some people are being seen.
*I am not sure how this affects GDP. GP pay is a complex package but pay per visit isn't part of it.
Jessica Elgot @jessicaelgot · 2h Boris Johnson is planning a farewell party at Chequers this weekend - but he wants to stick on the backbenches for now.
Allies suggest he will ask tricky questions on Ukraine, levelling up and NI protocol bill, the three things he fears could slip
Oh please. The idea he will even bother turning up regularly is for the birds.
I don't see why not. He'd see it as his Churchill in the wilderness period and find some issue to give portentous speeches about from the backbenches.
I would have thought he'd be a bit too busy on the speeches and books front to regularly speak in the Commons.
A couple of days ago, I received my voter's pamphet for the August 2nd primary here in the Seattle area. You can see the information in it by going to the King County election site: https://kingcounty.gov/depts/elections.aspx And then clicking on "Learn about candidates and measures on the ballot".
As usual, there are some unusual candidates on the ballot. (Though none quite as unusual as the Democrat running for Senate six years ago who promised to solve the North Korean problem, with . . . 30,000 cruise missiles.)
Our senior senator, Patty Murray, who most think is safe, has drawn no fewer than 17 opponents, and has been running negative ads against one of them, Tiffany Smiley. (Appropriately, Smiley has the best smile of the group. Also appropriately (in my opinion), Leon Lawson, a Trump Republican, looks actually threatening in his photo.)
Either SeaShantyIrish2 or I can probably answer most of the questions you might have on this top-two primary.
Poll just published, conducted for Seattle Times
Seattle Times ($) - WA Poll shows Patty Murray up big over Tiffany Smiley
U.S. Sen. Patty Murray holds a substantial 18-point lead over Republican challenger Tiffany Smiley, claiming huge majorities of Democratic voters and breaking even with independents, in a new poll commissioned by The Seattle Times and partners.
Murray, a Democrat seeking a sixth term in office, leads Smiley 51% to 33%, according to the WA Poll.
The 18-point spread is the best result for Murray in any of the half-dozen publicly released polls in the last year.
In every public poll of the race, Murray’s support has been within 48% and 51%, while Smiley’s has varied between 31% and 43%.
The WA Poll is sponsored by The Seattle Times, KING 5, the University of Washington’s Center for an Informed Public, and Washington State University’s Murrow College of Communication.
Conducted online July 6-10 by SurveyUSA, the WA Poll reached 825 adults, including 731 registered voters and 596 likely voters, using a population sample provided by Lucid Holdings. The respondents were weighted to U.S. Census proportions for gender, age, race, education and home ownership
SSI - margin of error for FULL sample is plus/minus 5%
Note that Senator Murray has been running MAJOR TV ad buy for at least a month. Both (I reckon) as a strategy for boosting her numbers in the August 2021 primary (ballots were mailed out to voters in King Co yesterday, and will be by all counties by tomorrow) AND as a tactic for this specific poll.
Even if Patty & her team did NOT receive a heads up about this poll, would be logical to assume that SOMEBODY would be conducting public poll right after 4th of July, to test the waters after the RvW repeal and on eve of primary which effectively starts today as voters receive their ballots
BTW, having more than a dozen candidates running for US Senate is NOT a new thing, it's the norm. For one thing, only costs $1,740 this year (one percent of annual congressional salary) in filing fee to make the ballot.
PLUS consideration that, under Top Two primary system, that there is NO way for third-party and other independents to get on the general election ballot unless they make the cut in the primary. Meaning that even if they (mostly correctly) assume they will NOT make the Top Two, they can at least get their message out (however nuts or not) via the official state voter's pamphlet.
Jessica Elgot @jessicaelgot · 2h Boris Johnson is planning a farewell party at Chequers this weekend - but he wants to stick on the backbenches for now.
Allies suggest he will ask tricky questions on Ukraine, levelling up and NI protocol bill, the three things he fears could slip
Oh please. The idea he will even bother turning up regularly is for the birds.
I don't see why not. He'd see it as his Churchill in the wilderness period and find some issue to give portentous speeches about from the backbenches.
Winston Churchill truly loved the House of Commons. Boris Johnson? Not so much.
Seems to be Stop Penny time. If they want a clean break then stopping the candidate whose first instinct isn't to be truthful makes some sense, I guess. Don't really get the visceral anti-Truss sentiment tbh. Sure she's a poor speaker.
She’s massively gaffe prone. Her encouragement of people to go fight in Ukraine was hugely problematic, arguably it could lead to the deaths of 2 UK citizens. Also I had to guffaw when she went large on her sense of loyalty, I wondered what her husband might think of that.
She literally finished her speech today by walking out the wrong way. In a one door room
She also had to correct herself when she said “Putin’s war in Russia”. She’s hopeless.
Comments
I have topped up.
Snort 😂
Is she infamous for her lack of preparation? I hadn’t heard that.
It no way compares with Raab’s Afghanistan shambles, and Boris’s omni-shite.
Plus - I really do think that not a single voter in the red wall seats of north or midlands will give a flying feck that Truss voted remain - 6 years ago. They wont even know she did. And if they do know they wont care compared to the economic shit storm happening now.
Because thrashed she would be. Not only is Truss a liability, but she would appoint a bunch of continuity clown show people to cabinet positions. She might even retain JRM and Dorries.
EDIT: I see many others have already made the same points.
Truss's task will be limit the damage to maybe a hung parliament.
As for my belief about the Badenochers, it is from looking at who is publicly supporting her and indeed who is supporting her on this board.
It’s notable that there are few (no?) pro-Trussers posting; for example. She is not at all transfer friendly unless, like Steve Baker, ideology trumps all.
Interesting.
@andrew_lilico
·
2h
I wonder who gets Foreign Secretary in a Truss administration? I guess the banter option is JRM...
===
Shoot me now!
Supporters of Sunak, Mordaunt and I suspect Truss (though whether Braverman's supporters will switch en bloc or perhaps more will go to Badenoch I don't know) each seem to have around 120 potential supporters.
Do you think the 1922 should amend the rules and allow the top three candidates to go to the membership to allow as wide as possible a range of views to be presented and debated?
If they want a clean break then stopping the candidate whose first instinct isn't to be truthful makes some sense, I guess.
Don't really get the visceral anti-Truss sentiment tbh. Sure she's a poor speaker.
And in a Sunak-Truss battle, I’ll find myself supporting the same candidate as Dominic Raab. And that’s something I never thought could possibly happen.
Truss however likely increases the damage and makes a Labour majority or Labour-LD coalition the likely outcome
So we are now back to whether Rishi and Penny can make 120 in advance of Truss. They have the Tugendhat withdrawal/loss to come which will each boost them. The question then becomes where Badenoch’s voters go and I do not believe they will fold into Truss.
Sunak v Penny most likely. There are outside chances of Penny v Truss and Sunak v Truss but I think these are far less likely as things currently stand.
I think Kemi’s chances are gone though.
I agree.
This lack of truthfulness on Mordaunt's part is becoming written as lore. What is the evidence for it, compared to the average politician?
To submit questions or attend in person (note the web address!)
https://survey.alchemer.eu/s3/90473911/5b4ef62e2bdc
Sunday, July 17 @ 7pm on ITV
Monday, July 18 @ 7pm on Sky
Arsehole to the last.
And then clicking on "Learn about candidates and measures on the ballot".
As usual, there are some unusual candidates on the ballot. (Though none quite as unusual as the Democrat running for Senate six years ago who promised to solve the North Korean problem, with . . . 30,000 cruise missiles.)
Our senior senator, Patty Murray, who most think is safe, has drawn no fewer than 17 opponents, and has been running negative ads against one of them, Tiffany Smiley. (Appropriately, Smiley has the best smile of the group. Also appropriately (in my opinion), Leon Lawson, a Trump Republican, looks actually threatening in his photo.)
Either SeaShantyIrish2 or I can probably answer most of the questions you might have on this top-two primary.
Truss has no chance of getting Tugenhadt support so will go easy on Badenoch .
They may go for ideological and Brexit purity matched with a heavy dose of personality free politics and spend a post 2024 period in opposition or stand a sporting chance in 2024 with Mordaunt.
It's not a tough one for those with more than a few brain cells to rub together but then there do appear to be more than several dozen for whom the hair shirt and political self flagellation is utterly admirable.
Jessica Elgot
@jessicaelgot
·
2h
Boris Johnson is planning a farewell party at Chequers this weekend - but he wants to stick on the backbenches for now.
Allies suggest he will ask tricky questions on Ukraine, levelling up and NI protocol bill, the three things he fears could slip
Buckland seemed to be arguing Sunak was the only "sensible" candidate on the economy and tax - Morgan pointed out the Conservative Party membership like the words "tax cuts" - apparently "it's human nature" (not sure about that) and Sunak, "even if he's probably right" will struggle to overcome that.
The idea he will even bother turning up regularly is for the birds.
He barely bothered about things slipping when he was PM, why should he as a disgraced backbench MP?
Braverman objects to her changing the wording of woman in a bill. She says she didn't. She claimed to have set up an investigation into the number of girls transitioning. People involved say she had nowt to do with it.
The fixation with trans runs deep. It may cost her.
I'd go for the following.....
Run off is top 2 unless all 3 get 100 or more MPs support in which case it will be a three way vote with second preferences of the third place candidate redistributed until 50% breached
If Truss was in the Final she could not win as either Sunak or Mordaunt would beat her very easily amongst MPs.
So Truss will have the support of well under 50% of MPs - which means MPs can remove her by no confidencing her.
OK, they will have to give her a reasonable chance but there is time. They give her 12 months - she'll be miles behind in the polls - and then they no confidence her - which will be certain to succeed.
A new leader is then elected this time next year.
But it would involve actually putting some effort in, which is foreign to him unless there is a direct pay-off.
Ugh, that was not easy to say.
I'm not sure who else makes it. If you view the candidates and their supporters through ideology, then Truss should get enough transfers from Braverman and Badenoch to squeeze out Sunak. But if Badenoch supporters are to an extent Gove acolytes, they're hardly likely to want to support Truss, as continuity Boris. So then it is Truss who falls short.
I dont think any of them will have the votes to risk it actuallly
There is no easy way out in case of buyers remorse. If they elect Truss then they fight 2024 with Truss and will have to face up to the electoral armageddon that will result.
In practice, any party VOMCing a newly-elected leader would look pretty desperate.
But is there any formal equivalent of the 12 month immunity (unless you really hack off the '22) a leader gets from winning a VONC?
Rang my GP's surgery about 3pm. Could I come in for 4pm that afternoon?
I did. Doctor saw me on time, pronounced it was probably a cyst rather than anything more serious, but wanted to get the ultrasound people to take a quick look just in case, also wanted to do some blood tests. Blood tests booked for the following Monday (this was a Thursday), Ultrasound booked for today (I.e. two weeks).
Upshot is that two weeks from the initial phone call I've had a consultation, tests and an all clear. (I'll probably have a phone call with the doctor when he gets the results back, but the ultrasound operator was pretty clear it is just a cyst).
Oh, and all done in my local town (pop approx 25k).
Now, clearly my experiences aren't universal, but as someone who hadn't seen a doctor for years, and had got the impression from the media that the whole system was on the brink of collapse, I was quite pleasantly surprised by how uncollapsed at least my local bit of it seems to be.
So I reckon it would need 50% +1 of Tory MPs to send a letter to Sir Graham.
The saving grace is there is time - if Boris was going next summer then there wouldn't be.
Also yesterday's GDP figures* included a significant increase in GP visits, so clearly some people are being seen.
*I am not sure how this affects GDP. GP pay is a complex package but pay per visit isn't part of it.
Seattle Times ($) - WA Poll shows Patty Murray up big over Tiffany Smiley
U.S. Sen. Patty Murray holds a substantial 18-point lead over Republican challenger Tiffany Smiley, claiming huge majorities of Democratic voters and breaking even with independents, in a new poll commissioned by The Seattle Times and partners.
Murray, a Democrat seeking a sixth term in office, leads Smiley 51% to 33%, according to the WA Poll.
The 18-point spread is the best result for Murray in any of the half-dozen publicly released polls in the last year.
In every public poll of the race, Murray’s support has been within 48% and 51%, while Smiley’s has varied between 31% and 43%.
The WA Poll is sponsored by The Seattle Times, KING 5, the University of Washington’s Center for an Informed Public, and Washington State University’s Murrow College of Communication.
Conducted online July 6-10 by SurveyUSA, the WA Poll reached 825 adults, including 731 registered voters and 596 likely voters, using a population sample provided by Lucid Holdings. The respondents were weighted to U.S. Census proportions for gender, age, race, education and home ownership
https://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=ba87c5ad-0717-4940-9580-a782faf9c16f
SSI - margin of error for FULL sample is plus/minus 5%
Note that Senator Murray has been running MAJOR TV ad buy for at least a month. Both (I reckon) as a strategy for boosting her numbers in the August 2021 primary (ballots were mailed out to voters in King Co yesterday, and will be by all counties by tomorrow) AND as a tactic for this specific poll.
Even if Patty & her team did NOT receive a heads up about this poll, would be logical to assume that SOMEBODY would be conducting public poll right after 4th of July, to test the waters after the RvW repeal and on eve of primary which effectively starts today as voters receive their ballots
BTW, having more than a dozen candidates running for US Senate is NOT a new thing, it's the norm. For one thing, only costs $1,740 this year (one percent of annual congressional salary) in filing fee to make the ballot.
PLUS consideration that, under Top Two primary system, that there is NO way for third-party and other independents to get on the general election ballot unless they make the cut in the primary. Meaning that even if they (mostly correctly) assume they will NOT make the Top Two, they can at least get their message out (however nuts or not) via the official state voter's pamphlet.