Can someone explain to me why BlowJo has overturned the Erskine May convention and is refusing parliamentary time to debate a confidence motion he would win?
It has already been explained many times
Starmer tabled a motion that contained conditional language. That, as laid out by the library of the House, does not meet the threshold necessary to be granted a debate.
It was a valid motion but not worded in such a way as to trigger a debate as per the convention. (This also happened in 2018 when a Corbyn motion was not debated)
The government informed Starmer that all he needed to do was table a motion using the standard language and a debate would be granted without question.
No such motion has yet to be tabled.
Starmer, as a lawyer, should understand the need for the right form of language.
It's only the government's opinion that the right form of language has not been used.
If the government can decide whether or not to allow a given confidence motion, we are in murky territory.
Backed up by the opinion of the Library of the House who know more about this than any of us here. And I do trust them.
The solution is very simple. Starmer tables the standard motion and he gets the debate
I don't understand why he isn't doing just that.
In 1965 Sir Alec Douglas-Home (Con) was allowed this form of words "That this House deplores the hasty and ill-considered actions of Her Majesty's Government during their first hundred days of office and has no confidence in their ability to conduct the nation's affairs."
In 1972 Peter Shore (Lab ) was allowed this form of words "That this House condemns the action of Her Majesty's Government in framing its European Communities Bill with the intention of removing the possibility of substantial amendment; and considers this to be a gross breach of faith in the light of undertakings previously given that the Bill and the Treaties could be fully discussed."
There is no standard form of words that has to be used.
The idea that you can’t question by vote in the Commons the position of a PM who has been rejected by his own party, but nonetheless remains in post for potentially months, seems pretty dodgy to me. FWIW. And sets a very poor precedent.
The most incongruous religious connection is that of Suella - she’s a Buddhist who goes around being mean and rather unkind to those less fortunate than herself. I would have thought that was entirely counter to the teachings of her creed?
Buddhism is many things. But it certainly isn't about being nice.
The forum that will decide the matter of Twitter v Musk (or is it other way around?) will be the Court of Chancery of the State of Delaware. An equity court, and the top one in USA for determination of complex corporate civil suits.
Very interesting article in NYT on this.
Twitter (or Musk?) is registered in Dover under the corporate laws of Delaware. Like most corporations on the face of earth, apparently.
When I was a lad, one of my favorite gags from "Get Smart" was when, at the end of a rouge TV broadcast threatening world destruction by global criminal conspiracy "KAOS" unless mega-billions were paid in ransom, the bad-guy announcer signed off with -
"This warning comes to you from KAOS - a Delaware corporation".
The most incongruous religious connection is that of Suella - she’s a Buddhist who goes around being mean and rather unkind to those less fortunate than herself. I would have thought that was entirely counter to the teachings of her creed?
Important they do this and keep looking for opportunities to announce policies.
The Tory leadership contest gives blanket coverage to the personalities and their ideas, however mad some of them may be. It’s at moments like this that the old Overton window gets shifted and new consensuses pop up regardless of their merits. Labour will need to make a lot of noise to stop Tory ideas taking over the airwaves.
Not surprised about Kemi and net zero. She comes across as a very tribal, hyper political politician. Obviously that might appeal to Conservatives in this campaign, but it creates blind spots and is not a great quality for a PM.
I don't think she's half as formidable as her backers think she is. She'll also undoubtedly be accused of being Gove's puppet.
The whole thing is bonkers. She is not experienced enough to take over in the middle of an economic crisis the like o which we have not seen in decades and with a war in eastern europe that could drag on for years.
She is utterly untested at high office and Tories who think she is ready need to go and take a long cold non-alcoholic drink and get a fecking grip.
LOTO after 2025?
Yeh. May well be.
But now. Nope.
Kemi is the Blue Corbyn.
You're shitting yourself about Kemi v Keir
I assure you that I am not. I can see why she appeals to some Tories though, much as Corbyn appealed to some Labourites. But like Corbyn that appeal is narrow and the lack of any leadership experience is a critical weakness.
Mordaunt is who Starmer and Labour fear most, I reckon. Followed by either Sunak or Tugendhat. After Braverman and Cosplay Thatcher, Badenoch is probably who they most would want to succeed Johnson.
I think the Labour Party would most want Braverman to win.
Champagne corks popping in Labour HQ - Braverman, Zahawi
Pleased - Truss, Hunt
Neutral - Rishi/Tugendhat
Nervous - Penny
WTF is going to happen? - Badenoch
Yep, that's a good analysis
Perhaps a bit more WTF and *actual panic* with Badenoch: how on earth would Labour, and the wider Left, deal with a young black female rightwing Tory leader? How? I can't see any attack lines, prima facie
Badenoch could be an enormous success, or a terrible failure - we simply don't know enough about her yet to be sure. I could see her leading the Conservatives to a 100 seat majority... or their worst result since 2001.
Yes I agree. It's the Hail Mary play. She really needs to run a big department. Where she can deal with the practicalities rather than just the theory of slash the State. In view of the conversation tonight I would suggest education as a good place to start. She might even learn some things.
Or perhaps not. (Wikipedia) … was also a school governor at St Thomas the Apostle College in Southwark, and the Jubilee Primary School.…
Well either way she will get knocked out before the final round and I am backing Tugendhat who actually is a Roman Catholic
You seem to be assuming that Tugendhat will go further in this contest than Badenoch.
He will, the right vote is currently split between Badenoch, Braverman and Zahawi and Truss and Hunt will probably go out tomorrow and many of his supporters go to Tugendhat who should come 3rd tomorrow.
Sunak will then lend some of his supporters to Tugendhat to try and get Tugendhat as his opponent in the membership vote
Isn’t that a bit dangerous . Couldn’t it backfire .
It may be the only way Sunak can win the membership vote
The most incongruous religious connection is that of Suella - she’s a Buddhist who goes around being mean and rather unkind to those less fortunate than herself. I would have thought that was entirely counter to the teachings of her creed?
Buddhism is many things. But it certainly isn't about being nice.
My shallow understanding of Buddhism has been blown apart by your comment.
So they'll have to produce the data on bots to prove he had no right to withdraw ftom the offer. Thickos.
Elon Musk didn't pull out of buying Twitter because of bots, he pulled out because Tesla stock has lost almost half its value, and that meant he'd have to pledge very large amounts of it to his bankers.
Thats not the reason he gave to the SEC, even if its really why. If Twitter want their compensation theyll have to provide the data he says was withheld
Why?
Well presumably if he claims they are in material breach because x, they need to demonstrate not x.
If he claims they are run by shape-shifting space aliens do they have to prove they aren't?
They have been saying to the SEC for years now what the bot levels are. Musk hasn't said they are faking their revenue and profits - so if bots actually make up 50% of Twitter users not 5% that's actually good for Twitter and any potentisl buyer because that means their users are twice as valuable as they said.
Musk has to prove Material Adverse Affect. Twiiter are holding him to a contract he has freely signed. Getting the exact number of bots wrong is not Material Adverse Affect.
Delaware courts take a dim view of people trying to get out of purchase agreements.
Inflation declining in the US? "For the fourth straight week, the nation’s average gas price has fallen, declining 12.8 cents from a week ago to $4.66 per gallon today according to GasBuddy data compiled from more than 11 million individual price reports covering over 150,000 gas stations across the country. The national average is down 34.4 cents from a month ago and $1.54 per gallon higher than a year ago. The national average price of diesel has declined 8.5 cents in the last week and stands at $5.65 per gallon.
“The national average has declined for 27 days straight, or four weeks, the longest decline in average gas prices since the pandemic started in 2020. Average gas prices are down nearly 40 cents, with Americans shelling out $140 million less on gasoline every day than they did a month ago,” said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy. " source: https://www.gasbuddy.com/go/gas-price-decline-accelerates-steepest-since-pandemic-began
Will the decline continue? De Haan admits he doesn't know.
Tomorrow the UD Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the June CPI estimate, giving us an overall measure.
So they'll have to produce the data on bots to prove he had no right to withdraw ftom the offer. Thickos.
Elon Musk didn't pull out of buying Twitter because of bots, he pulled out because Tesla stock has lost almost half its value, and that meant he'd have to pledge very large amounts of it to his bankers.
Thats not the reason he gave to the SEC, even if its really why. If Twitter want their compensation theyll have to provide the data he says was withheld
No they don't - the *only* reason that Elon is allowed to walk away and not pay is a Material Adverse Event.
We're going through the greatest hits. Now onto Brexit.
Penny has just gone down in my estimation.
I think she handled the question quite well.
The wider point is that there was (and is) a lot of EU policy that absolutely depended on national Governments' willingness to implement it, without demur, and often surreptitiously. So you could say 'the UK has a veto' knowing full well that the Government would never use its veto. But we weren't given a referendum on ending supine national Governments, we were given one on ending our membership of the EU.
Drivel.
We had a veto on Turkish accession, and Penny said we didn’t. She was at best mistaken.
Wow, suddenly pointing out that Greensill Dave was a lying, smarmy, duplicitous bastard makes you a bad person, does it?
I don't get this at all. If her point is true (and it is not denied) that the fop had given an undertaking not to veto, it was grossly misleading of him to say We have a veto and not follow up with Though admittedly I personally am estopped from exercising it, and my successors might also be embarrassed by my undertaking. Leave was wrong and dishonest, but let's not forget the appalling patronising dishonesty emanating from the remainariat at all times in general, and over Turkey in particular.
Uncharacteristically obtuse from you. I criticised Cameron’s disingenuity upthread, but the issue is whether Penny was correct or not.
She was incorrect (and possibly lying) then, she must certainly be lying now as she has been asked about it many times subsequently.
I took that clip as conceding a de jure veto, but saying de facto unexerciseable. which comes to the same thing as, no veto. This is a quibble.
No. Cameron could have reversed his decision. There was nothing to stop him doing so, therefore the veto existed.
The capability existed regardless of stated intention, therefore for Ms Mordaunt to say it did not means, to me at least, that she was lying.
And personally, after Boris and Trump, I have had enough of brazen liars at the top of politics
Well if she's lost Bev, I see no reason for Penny to continue.
Can I infer from your comment that you would be happy to endorse someone who seems to be an open liar?
The most incongruous religious connection is that of Suella - she’s a Buddhist who goes around being mean and rather unkind to those less fortunate than herself. I would have thought that was entirely counter to the teachings of her creed?
The Buddhists who run Myanmar aren't particularly nice.
The most incongruous religious connection is that of Suella - she’s a Buddhist who goes around being mean and rather unkind to those less fortunate than herself. I would have thought that was entirely counter to the teachings of her creed?
Buddhism is many things. But it certainly isn't about being nice.
My shallow understanding of Buddhism has been blown apart by your comment.
Cummings seems to be supporting Sunak. Is Gove trying to split the anti Sunak vote? Or does he genuinely believe in Kemi? Perhaps as much as we would all love to believe it there may be no Murdoch/Gove/Cummings alliance.
I disagree that Gove is easily expendable. They need competent Brexiteers and there aren't that many of them.
I just had a look at Linkedin. People are venting their fury about Braverman and Badenoch. How can it be possible that they are opposed to net zero! How can they even be allowed to be candidates! ... There was similar fury about the supreme court overturning Roe v Wade. People were going around building "firewalls" around themselves, cancelling their professional contacts who, however cautiously, expressed a different view.
Linkedin used to be where you could find some sanity. Now it is just no different really to facebook. Social media has just made everyone mad. It is all tribal mob rule. Meaningful debate is completely dead.
Depends who you follow, there are plenty of Conservatives on social media, even Twitter
Surely Sunak and Tugendhat don't have enough votes between them to get Tugendhat to the Final - even if Rishi lent Tom all his surplus votes (which he won't - as he can't cut it too fine and also he'll want to be clearly in the lead).
So they'll have to produce the data on bots to prove he had no right to withdraw ftom the offer. Thickos.
Elon Musk didn't pull out of buying Twitter because of bots, he pulled out because Tesla stock has lost almost half its value, and that meant he'd have to pledge very large amounts of it to his bankers.
Thats not the reason he gave to the SEC, even if its really why. If Twitter want their compensation theyll have to provide the data he says was withheld
No they don't - the *only* reason that Elon is allowed to walk away and not pay is a Material Adverse Event.
And there hasn't been one of them.
Fair enough, ill just enjoy from afar with my popcorn
So they'll have to produce the data on bots to prove he had no right to withdraw ftom the offer. Thickos.
Elon Musk didn't pull out of buying Twitter because of bots, he pulled out because Tesla stock has lost almost half its value, and that meant he'd have to pledge very large amounts of it to his bankers.
The people trying to make out Musk is a super genius playing 12-d chess rather rather an impulsive shit talker with a habit of pretending to buy companies have rather too much of their own self worth wrapped up in the Cult of Musk.
Musk's withdrawl letter was risible, the onus is not on Twitter to show numbers about bots, it is on Musk to prove there is a latent, hitherto undiscovered, Material Adverse Affect that gets him out of the deal.
He literally stated one of the reasons he was buying the company was to fix "the bot problem"
The most incongruous religious connection is that of Suella - she’s a Buddhist who goes around being mean and rather unkind to those less fortunate than herself. I would have thought that was entirely counter to the teachings of her creed?
She reminds me of Cristin Milioti’s Kathy Flowers 🤭
Can someone explain to me why BlowJo has overturned the Erskine May convention and is refusing parliamentary time to debate a confidence motion he would win?
It has already been explained many times
Starmer tabled a motion that contained conditional language. That, as laid out by the library of the House, does not meet the threshold necessary to be granted a debate.
It was a valid motion but not worded in such a way as to trigger a debate as per the convention. (This also happened in 2018 when a Corbyn motion was not debated)
The government informed Starmer that all he needed to do was table a motion using the standard language and a debate would be granted without question.
No such motion has yet to be tabled.
Starmer, as a lawyer, should understand the need for the right form of language.
It's only the government's opinion that the right form of language has not been used.
If the government can decide whether or not to allow a given confidence motion, we are in murky territory.
Backed up by the opinion of the Library of the House who know more about this than any of us here. And I do trust them.
The solution is very simple. Starmer tables the standard motion and he gets the debate
I don't understand why he isn't doing just that.
In 1965 Sir Alec Douglas-Home (Con) was allowed this form of words "That this House deplores the hasty and ill-considered actions of Her Majesty's Government during their first hundred days of office and has no confidence in their ability to conduct the nation's affairs."
In 1972 Peter Shore (Lab ) was allowed this form of words "That this House condemns the action of Her Majesty's Government in framing its European Communities Bill with the intention of removing the possibility of substantial amendment; and considers this to be a gross breach of faith in the light of undertakings previously given that the Bill and the Treaties could be fully discussed."
There is no standard form of words that has to be used.
Why are you ignoring the use of conditional language that is reason for refusing a debate? That is the key to all this
Neither of the examples you give are in anyway relevant as they don't contain conditional language.
It really is very simple.
You seem a teeny weeny little bit obsessed with this.
Its an argument about parliamentary procedure - naturally the answers will come down to arcane arguments about precedents and precision.
At the very least it seems there is an arguable point, and even if it is wrong, the aggrieved party have a means of bypassing it if they wish to challenge the playing of silly buggers. If the blocker says 'You cannot do X, you must do Y' the solution is pretty obvious, and one they cannot stymie further.
I just had a look at Linkedin. People are venting their fury about Braverman and Badenoch. How can it be possible that they are opposed to net zero! How can they even be allowed to be candidates! ... There was similar fury about the supreme court overturning Roe v Wade. People were going around building "firewalls" around themselves, cancelling their professional contacts who, however cautiously, expressed a different view.
Linkedin used to be where you could find some sanity. Now it is just no different really to facebook. Social media has just made everyone mad. It is all tribal mob rule. Meaningful debate is completely dead.
I cannot imagine discussing politics on LinkedIn. Unless, I worked in politics.
Surely Sunak and Tugendhat don't have enough votes between them to get Tugendhat to the Final - even if Rishi lent Tom all his surplus votes (which he won't - as he can't cut it too fine and also he'll want to be clearly in the lead).
They do I would think. I would have thought by the final 4 candidates Sunak + Tugendhat combined would be just over 50% of Tory MPs
The most incongruous religious connection is that of Suella - she’s a Buddhist who goes around being mean and rather unkind to those less fortunate than herself. I would have thought that was entirely counter to the teachings of her creed?
Even if it was, being horrible to people is not generally a part of most religious creeds but it has never stopped people entirely.
Not surprised about Kemi and net zero. She comes across as a very tribal, hyper political politician. Obviously that might appeal to Conservatives in this campaign, but it creates blind spots and is not a great quality for a PM.
I don't think she's half as formidable as her backers think she is. She'll also undoubtedly be accused of being Gove's puppet.
The whole thing is bonkers. She is not experienced enough to take over in the middle of an economic crisis the like o which we have not seen in decades and with a war in eastern europe that could drag on for years.
She is utterly untested at high office and Tories who think she is ready need to go and take a long cold non-alcoholic drink and get a fecking grip.
LOTO after 2025?
Yeh. May well be.
But now. Nope.
Kemi is the Blue Corbyn.
You're shitting yourself about Kemi v Keir
I assure you that I am not. I can see why she appeals to some Tories though, much as Corbyn appealed to some Labourites. But like Corbyn that appeal is narrow and the lack of any leadership experience is a critical weakness.
Mordaunt is who Starmer and Labour fear most, I reckon. Followed by either Sunak or Tugendhat. After Braverman and Cosplay Thatcher, Badenoch is probably who they most would want to succeed Johnson.
I think the Labour Party would most want Braverman to win.
Champagne corks popping in Labour HQ - Braverman, Zahawi
Pleased - Truss, Hunt
Neutral - Rishi/Tugendhat
Nervous - Penny
WTF is going to happen? - Badenoch
Yep, that's a good analysis
Perhaps a bit more WTF and *actual panic* with Badenoch: how on earth would Labour, and the wider Left, deal with a young black female rightwing Tory leader? How? I can't see any attack lines, prima facie
Badenoch could be an enormous success, or a terrible failure - we simply don't know enough about her yet to be sure. I could see her leading the Conservatives to a 100 seat majority... or their worst result since 2001.
Yes I agree. It's the Hail Mary play. She really needs to run a big department. Where she can deal with the practicalities rather than just the theory of slash the State. In view of the conversation tonight I would suggest education as a good place to start. She might even learn some things.
Or perhaps not. (Wikipedia) … was also a school governor at St Thomas the Apostle College in Southwark, and the Jubilee Primary School.…
Interesting pitch for Kemi. The country is in total shit and she offers something different most of all a non-PPE degree and STEM background so she can analyse the whole mess properly and act:
Collingwood 🇬🇧 @admcollingwood 🧵The Tories face perhaps the most important #LeadershipContest in almost half a century. The candidates are either second rate avatars for the triple liberal consensus (in social, economic and foreign policies) that has led us down a catastrophic cul-de-sac, or are...[1/n]
Important they do this and keep looking for opportunities to announce policies.
The Tory leadership contest gives blanket coverage to the personalities and their ideas, however mad some of them may be. It’s at moments like this that the old Overton window gets shifted and new consensuses pop up regardless of their merits. Labour will need to make a lot of noise to stop Tory ideas taking over the airwaves.
Labour are not going to get a hearing from the media while this contest continues and then it will be all about the cabinet
Labour's first realistic opportunity will be their party conference on the 25th September
I just had a look at Linkedin. People are venting their fury about Braverman and Badenoch. How can it be possible that they are opposed to net zero! How can they even be allowed to be candidates! ... There was similar fury about the supreme court overturning Roe v Wade. People were going around building "firewalls" around themselves, cancelling their professional contacts who, however cautiously, expressed a different view.
Linkedin used to be where you could find some sanity. Now it is just no different really to facebook. Social media has just made everyone mad. It is all tribal mob rule. Meaningful debate is completely dead.
I cannot imagine discussing politics on LinkedIn. Unless, I worked in politics.
LinkedIn in 2022 unfortunately has absolutely nothing to do with work, and almost all posts are virtue signalling politics, or karma farming "i suffered from depression or a disability or whatever but look at me now smiling having beaten adversity to become a low level drone in sector 7G, etc".
It is the most depressing place on earth, and surely evidence that 99% of humans are actually NPCs.
We're going through the greatest hits. Now onto Brexit.
Penny has just gone down in my estimation.
I think she handled the question quite well.
The wider point is that there was (and is) a lot of EU policy that absolutely depended on national Governments' willingness to implement it, without demur, and often surreptitiously. So you could say 'the UK has a veto' knowing full well that the Government would never use its veto. But we weren't given a referendum on ending supine national Governments, we were given one on ending our membership of the EU.
Drivel.
We had a veto on Turkish accession, and Penny said we didn’t. She was at best mistaken.
Wow, suddenly pointing out that Greensill Dave was a lying, smarmy, duplicitous bastard makes you a bad person, does it?
I don't get this at all. If her point is true (and it is not denied) that the fop had given an undertaking not to veto, it was grossly misleading of him to say We have a veto and not follow up with Though admittedly I personally am estopped from exercising it, and my successors might also be embarrassed by my undertaking. Leave was wrong and dishonest, but let's not forget the appalling patronising dishonesty emanating from the remainariat at all times in general, and over Turkey in particular.
Uncharacteristically obtuse from you. I criticised Cameron’s disingenuity upthread, but the issue is whether Penny was correct or not.
She was incorrect (and possibly lying) then, she must certainly be lying now as she has been asked about it many times subsequently.
I took that clip as conceding a de jure veto, but saying de facto unexerciseable. which comes to the same thing as, no veto. This is a quibble.
No. Cameron could have reversed his decision. There was nothing to stop him doing so, therefore the veto existed.
The capability existed regardless of stated intention, therefore for Ms Mordaunt to say it did not means, to me at least, that she was lying.
And personally, after Boris and Trump, I have had enough of brazen liars at the top of politics
Well if she's lost Bev, I see no reason for Penny to continue.
Can I infer from your comment that you would be happy to endorse someone who seems to be an open liar?
I don't accept the open liar designation, but I accept that Penny has flaws - flaws that have not currently shown themselves at anywhere near the level that would make me think she's not a great candidate.
I just had a look at Linkedin. People are venting their fury about Braverman and Badenoch. How can it be possible that they are opposed to net zero! How can they even be allowed to be candidates! ... There was similar fury about the supreme court overturning Roe v Wade. People were going around building "firewalls" around themselves, cancelling their professional contacts who, however cautiously, expressed a different view.
Linkedin used to be where you could find some sanity. Now it is just no different really to facebook. Social media has just made everyone mad. It is all tribal mob rule. Meaningful debate is completely dead.
I cannot imagine discussing politics on LinkedIn. Unless, I worked in politics.
Indeed, Facebook is for family and friends, Instagram for celebs, LinkedIn for work contacts, Twitter for politics
I just had a look at Linkedin. People are venting their fury about Braverman and Badenoch. How can it be possible that they are opposed to net zero! How can they even be allowed to be candidates! ... There was similar fury about the supreme court overturning Roe v Wade. People were going around building "firewalls" around themselves, cancelling their professional contacts who, however cautiously, expressed a different view.
Linkedin used to be where you could find some sanity. Now it is just no different really to facebook. Social media has just made everyone mad. It is all tribal mob rule. Meaningful debate is completely dead.
I cannot imagine discussing politics on LinkedIn. Unless, I worked in politics.
Cummings seems to be supporting Sunak. Is Gove trying to split the anti Sunak vote? Or does he genuinely believe in Kemi? Perhaps as much as we would all love to believe it there may be no Murdoch/Gove/Cummings alliance.
I disagree that Gove is easily expendable. They need competent Brexiteers and there aren't that many of them.
Splitting the anti-Sunak vote doesn't matter terribly much at this stage in the contest. Sunak is very likely to be one candidate going to members, and there will be one anti-Sunak candidate up against him. Indeed, to the extent that there is a slim possibility Sunak doesn't make the members' ballot, it is precisely because the anti-Sunak vote is both split and large amongst MPs.
The most incongruous religious connection is that of Suella - she’s a Buddhist who goes around being mean and rather unkind to those less fortunate than herself. I would have thought that was entirely counter to the teachings of her creed?
Buddhism is many things. But it certainly isn't about being nice.
My shallow understanding of Buddhism has been blown apart by your comment.
Samsara is shit. We are born in blood and screams. We age, get sick and then die. In that order if we are fortunate. That's it. What we do in between determines just how bad it will be next time. There is a minuscule chance we will be reborn human. So. We try to be kind. As this determines our rebirth. But being kind doesn't mean suffering fools or telling folk what they want to hear. Being "nice" is a platitude. Sort out your mind and your delusions that this is real. Shape up and wake up.
Surely Sunak and Tugendhat don't have enough votes between them to get Tugendhat to the Final - even if Rishi lent Tom all his surplus votes (which he won't - as he can't cut it too fine and also he'll want to be clearly in the lead).
They do I would think. I would have thought by the final 4 candidates Sunak + Tugendhat combined would be just over 50% of Tory MPs
It doesn’t concern you at all that Tom’s launch bombed today, with many of us giggling at how weird and hopeless he is at public speaking?
Interesting pitch for Kemi. The country is in total shit and she offers something different most of all a non-PPE degree and STEM background so she can analyse the whole mess properly and act:
Collingwood 🇬🇧 @admcollingwood 🧵The Tories face perhaps the most important #LeadershipContest in almost half a century. The candidates are either second rate avatars for the triple liberal consensus (in social, economic and foreign policies) that has led us down a catastrophic cul-de-sac, or are...[1/n]
One senior backbench MP who was in the room for the Common Sense group hustings tells me how Tom Tugendhat "completely fluffed" his answer to a question about Europe. "He was all about European team work and that fell flat on an audience that was full of Brexiteers," they said."
Interesting pitch for Kemi. The country is in total shit and she offers something different most of all a non-PPE degree and STEM background so she can analyse the whole mess properly and act:
Collingwood 🇬🇧 @admcollingwood 🧵The Tories face perhaps the most important #LeadershipContest in almost half a century. The candidates are either second rate avatars for the triple liberal consensus (in social, economic and foreign policies) that has led us down a catastrophic cul-de-sac, or are...[1/n]
Not surprised about Kemi and net zero. She comes across as a very tribal, hyper political politician. Obviously that might appeal to Conservatives in this campaign, but it creates blind spots and is not a great quality for a PM.
I don't think she's half as formidable as her backers think she is. She'll also undoubtedly be accused of being Gove's puppet.
The whole thing is bonkers. She is not experienced enough to take over in the middle of an economic crisis the like o which we have not seen in decades and with a war in eastern europe that could drag on for years.
She is utterly untested at high office and Tories who think she is ready need to go and take a long cold non-alcoholic drink and get a fecking grip.
LOTO after 2025?
Yeh. May well be.
But now. Nope.
Kemi is the Blue Corbyn.
You're shitting yourself about Kemi v Keir
I assure you that I am not. I can see why she appeals to some Tories though, much as Corbyn appealed to some Labourites. But like Corbyn that appeal is narrow and the lack of any leadership experience is a critical weakness.
Mordaunt is who Starmer and Labour fear most, I reckon. Followed by either Sunak or Tugendhat. After Braverman and Cosplay Thatcher, Badenoch is probably who they most would want to succeed Johnson.
I think the Labour Party would most want Braverman to win.
Champagne corks popping in Labour HQ - Braverman, Zahawi
Pleased - Truss, Hunt
Neutral - Rishi/Tugendhat
Nervous - Penny
WTF is going to happen? - Badenoch
Yep, that's a good analysis
Perhaps a bit more WTF and *actual panic* with Badenoch: how on earth would Labour, and the wider Left, deal with a young black female rightwing Tory leader? How? I can't see any attack lines, prima facie
Badenoch could be an enormous success, or a terrible failure - we simply don't know enough about her yet to be sure. I could see her leading the Conservatives to a 100 seat majority... or their worst result since 2001.
Yes I agree. It's the Hail Mary play. She really needs to run a big department. Where she can deal with the practicalities rather than just the theory of slash the State. In view of the conversation tonight I would suggest education as a good place to start. She might even learn some things.
Or perhaps not. (Wikipedia) … was also a school governor at St Thomas the Apostle College in Southwark, and the Jubilee Primary School.…
I just had a look at Linkedin. People are venting their fury about Braverman and Badenoch. How can it be possible that they are opposed to net zero! How can they even be allowed to be candidates! ... There was similar fury about the supreme court overturning Roe v Wade. People were going around building "firewalls" around themselves, cancelling their professional contacts who, however cautiously, expressed a different view.
Linkedin used to be where you could find some sanity. Now it is just no different really to facebook. Social media has just made everyone mad. It is all tribal mob rule. Meaningful debate is completely dead.
I cannot imagine discussing politics on LinkedIn. Unless, I worked in politics.
LinkedIn in 2022 unfortunately has absolutely nothing to do with work, and almost all posts are virtue signalling politics, or karma farming "i suffered from depression or a disability or whatever but look at me now smiling having beaten adversity to become a low level drone in sector 7G, etc".
It is the most depressing place on earth, and surely evidence that 99% of humans are actually NPCs.
I've used it fairly well to keep in contact with some people I used to work with, which has the potential to help me get work in the future.
I just can't imagine using it in any other way. Why would I want to put off people who might offer me a job by getting into an argument with them about politics?
One senior backbench MP who was in the room for the Common Sense group hustings tells me how Tom Tugendhat "completely fluffed" his answer to a question about Europe. "He was all about European team work and that fell flat on an audience that was full of Brexiteers," they said."
I just had a look at Linkedin. People are venting their fury about Braverman and Badenoch. How can it be possible that they are opposed to net zero! How can they even be allowed to be candidates! ... There was similar fury about the supreme court overturning Roe v Wade. People were going around building "firewalls" around themselves, cancelling their professional contacts who, however cautiously, expressed a different view.
Linkedin used to be where you could find some sanity. Now it is just no different really to facebook. Social media has just made everyone mad. It is all tribal mob rule. Meaningful debate is completely dead.
We have to restore debate by telling the libs to shut up.
I just had a look at Linkedin. People are venting their fury about Braverman and Badenoch. How can it be possible that they are opposed to net zero! How can they even be allowed to be candidates! ... There was similar fury about the supreme court overturning Roe v Wade. People were going around building "firewalls" around themselves, cancelling their professional contacts who, however cautiously, expressed a different view.
Linkedin used to be where you could find some sanity. Now it is just no different really to facebook. Social media has just made everyone mad. It is all tribal mob rule. Meaningful debate is completely dead.
I cannot imagine discussing politics on LinkedIn. Unless, I worked in politics.
Indeed, Facebook is for family and friends, Instagram for celebs, LinkedIn for work contacts, Twitter for politics
And Ravelry for knitting. Though a lot of them are on Instagram too. YouTube is for nerds.
Surely Sunak and Tugendhat don't have enough votes between them to get Tugendhat to the Final - even if Rishi lent Tom all his surplus votes (which he won't - as he can't cut it too fine and also he'll want to be clearly in the lead).
They do I would think. I would have thought by the final 4 candidates Sunak + Tugendhat combined would be just over 50% of Tory MPs
They would need well over 50% as the other two won't split equally and Sunak must retain a clear lead for momentum purposes.
So it would need to be something like:
Sunak 30 Tugendhat 25 Mordaunt 23 Truss 22
And I'm not sure that's realistic. If the right coalesce around Truss she surely gets over 25%.
The most incongruous religious connection is that of Suella - she’s a Buddhist who goes around being mean and rather unkind to those less fortunate than herself. I would have thought that was entirely counter to the teachings of her creed?
Buddhism is many things. But it certainly isn't about being nice.
My shallow understanding of Buddhism has been blown apart by your comment.
Samsara is shit. We are born in blood and screams. We age, get sick and then die. In that order if we are fortunate. That's it. What we do in between determines just how bad it will be next time. There is a minuscule chance we will be reborn human. So. We try to be kind. As this determines our rebirth. But being kind doesn't mean suffering fools or telling folk what they want to hear. Being "nice" is a platitude. Sort out your mind and your delusions that this is real. Shape up and wake up.
Not surprised about Kemi and net zero. She comes across as a very tribal, hyper political politician. Obviously that might appeal to Conservatives in this campaign, but it creates blind spots and is not a great quality for a PM.
I don't think she's half as formidable as her backers think she is. She'll also undoubtedly be accused of being Gove's puppet.
The whole thing is bonkers. She is not experienced enough to take over in the middle of an economic crisis the like o which we have not seen in decades and with a war in eastern europe that could drag on for years.
She is utterly untested at high office and Tories who think she is ready need to go and take a long cold non-alcoholic drink and get a fecking grip.
LOTO after 2025?
Yeh. May well be.
But now. Nope.
Kemi is the Blue Corbyn.
You're shitting yourself about Kemi v Keir
I assure you that I am not. I can see why she appeals to some Tories though, much as Corbyn appealed to some Labourites. But like Corbyn that appeal is narrow and the lack of any leadership experience is a critical weakness.
Mordaunt is who Starmer and Labour fear most, I reckon. Followed by either Sunak or Tugendhat. After Braverman and Cosplay Thatcher, Badenoch is probably who they most would want to succeed Johnson.
I think the Labour Party would most want Braverman to win.
Champagne corks popping in Labour HQ - Braverman, Zahawi
Pleased - Truss, Hunt
Neutral - Rishi/Tugendhat
Nervous - Penny
WTF is going to happen? - Badenoch
Yep, that's a good analysis
Perhaps a bit more WTF and *actual panic* with Badenoch: how on earth would Labour, and the wider Left, deal with a young black female rightwing Tory leader? How? I can't see any attack lines, prima facie
Badenoch could be an enormous success, or a terrible failure - we simply don't know enough about her yet to be sure. I could see her leading the Conservatives to a 100 seat majority... or their worst result since 2001.
Yes I agree. It's the Hail Mary play. She really needs to run a big department. Where she can deal with the practicalities rather than just the theory of slash the State. In view of the conversation tonight I would suggest education as a good place to start. She might even learn some things.
Or perhaps not. (Wikipedia) … was also a school governor at St Thomas the Apostle College in Southwark, and the Jubilee Primary School.…
Well either way she will get knocked out before the final round and I am backing Tugendhat who actually is a Roman Catholic
You seem to be assuming that Tugendhat will go further in this contest than Badenoch.
He will, the right vote is currently split between Badenoch, Braverman and Zahawi and Truss and Hunt will probably go out tomorrow and many of his supporters go to Tugendhat who should come 3rd tomorrow.
Sunak will then lend some of his supporters to Tugendhat to try and get Tugendhat as his opponent in the membership vote
For that to work you'd need less than 1/3 of MPs to back the right-wing-positioned person. The right can still muster 1/3 of MPs, can't they???
Not surprised about Kemi and net zero. She comes across as a very tribal, hyper political politician. Obviously that might appeal to Conservatives in this campaign, but it creates blind spots and is not a great quality for a PM.
I don't think she's half as formidable as her backers think she is. She'll also undoubtedly be accused of being Gove's puppet.
The whole thing is bonkers. She is not experienced enough to take over in the middle of an economic crisis the like o which we have not seen in decades and with a war in eastern europe that could drag on for years.
She is utterly untested at high office and Tories who think she is ready need to go and take a long cold non-alcoholic drink and get a fecking grip.
LOTO after 2025?
Yeh. May well be.
But now. Nope.
Kemi is the Blue Corbyn.
You're shitting yourself about Kemi v Keir
I assure you that I am not. I can see why she appeals to some Tories though, much as Corbyn appealed to some Labourites. But like Corbyn that appeal is narrow and the lack of any leadership experience is a critical weakness.
Mordaunt is who Starmer and Labour fear most, I reckon. Followed by either Sunak or Tugendhat. After Braverman and Cosplay Thatcher, Badenoch is probably who they most would want to succeed Johnson.
I think the Labour Party would most want Braverman to win.
Champagne corks popping in Labour HQ - Braverman, Zahawi
Pleased - Truss, Hunt
Neutral - Rishi/Tugendhat
Nervous - Penny
WTF is going to happen? - Badenoch
Yep, that's a good analysis
Perhaps a bit more WTF and *actual panic* with Badenoch: how on earth would Labour, and the wider Left, deal with a young black female rightwing Tory leader? How? I can't see any attack lines, prima facie
Badenoch could be an enormous success, or a terrible failure - we simply don't know enough about her yet to be sure. I could see her leading the Conservatives to a 100 seat majority... or their worst result since 2001.
Yes I agree. It's the Hail Mary play. She really needs to run a big department. Where she can deal with the practicalities rather than just the theory of slash the State. In view of the conversation tonight I would suggest education as a good place to start. She might even learn some things.
Or perhaps not. (Wikipedia) … was also a school governor at St Thomas the Apostle College in Southwark, and the Jubilee Primary School.…
I just had a look at Linkedin. People are venting their fury about Braverman and Badenoch. How can it be possible that they are opposed to net zero! How can they even be allowed to be candidates! ... There was similar fury about the supreme court overturning Roe v Wade. People were going around building "firewalls" around themselves, cancelling their professional contacts who, however cautiously, expressed a different view.
Linkedin used to be where you could find some sanity. Now it is just no different really to facebook. Social media has just made everyone mad. It is all tribal mob rule. Meaningful debate is completely dead.
I cannot imagine discussing politics on LinkedIn. Unless, I worked in politics.
LinkedIn in 2022 unfortunately has absolutely nothing to do with work, and almost all posts are virtue signalling politics, or karma farming "i suffered from depression or a disability or whatever but look at me now smiling having beaten adversity to become a low level drone in sector 7G, etc".
It is the most depressing place on earth, and surely evidence that 99% of humans are actually NPCs.
I find that it has a great function in discussing developments in law and policy in my professional field, but then there is this tsunami of sh*t that just floods over everything. People making absolute idiots of themselves, revealing details about their personal opinions and lives in (what I consider to be) a very unwise manner. It is really depressing that it has gone this way.
One senior backbench MP who was in the room for the Common Sense group hustings tells me how Tom Tugendhat "completely fluffed" his answer to a question about Europe. "He was all about European team work and that fell flat on an audience that was full of Brexiteers," they said."
One senior backbench MP who was in the room for the Common Sense group hustings tells me how Tom Tugendhat "completely fluffed" his answer to a question about Europe. "He was all about European team work and that fell flat on an audience that was full of Brexiteers," they said."
I just had a look at Linkedin. People are venting their fury about Braverman and Badenoch. How can it be possible that they are opposed to net zero! How can they even be allowed to be candidates! ... There was similar fury about the supreme court overturning Roe v Wade. People were going around building "firewalls" around themselves, cancelling their professional contacts who, however cautiously, expressed a different view.
Linkedin used to be where you could find some sanity. Now it is just no different really to facebook. Social media has just made everyone mad. It is all tribal mob rule. Meaningful debate is completely dead.
I cannot imagine discussing politics on LinkedIn. Unless, I worked in politics.
Indeed, Facebook is for family and friends, Instagram for celebs, LinkedIn for work contacts, Twitter for politics
My rule of thumb is that Facebook is for family members who you secretly hate, Instagram is for celebs you secretly hate, LinkedIn is for business associates you secretly hate, and Twitter is for people you are glad you don't know as you secretly hate them.
I just had a look at Linkedin. People are venting their fury about Braverman and Badenoch. How can it be possible that they are opposed to net zero! How can they even be allowed to be candidates! ... There was similar fury about the supreme court overturning Roe v Wade. People were going around building "firewalls" around themselves, cancelling their professional contacts who, however cautiously, expressed a different view.
Linkedin used to be where you could find some sanity. Now it is just no different really to facebook. Social media has just made everyone mad. It is all tribal mob rule. Meaningful debate is completely dead.
I cannot imagine discussing politics on LinkedIn. Unless, I worked in politics.
LinkedIn in 2022 unfortunately has absolutely nothing to do with work, and almost all posts are virtue signalling politics, or karma farming "i suffered from depression or a disability or whatever but look at me now smiling having beaten adversity to become a low level drone in sector 7G, etc".
It is the most depressing place on earth, and surely evidence that 99% of humans are actually NPCs.
I've used it fairly well to keep in contact with some people I used to work with, which has the potential to help me get work in the future.
I just can't imagine using it in any other way. Why would I want to put off people who might offer me a job by getting into an argument with them about politics?
Honestly, it beats me.
The annoying thing about LinkedIn is, as far as I know, it promotes popular posts around the network and you can't tune it to only show you posts from people you know.
There was a post I saw on there the other day from a woman who was proudly announcing she was adding "sex worker" to her linkedin job history because sex work was real work, and it was about time blah blah, yadda yadda.
And all I could think was, crikey, I'm not sure I'd employ someone who put "hooker" on their CV. But her post was teeming with likes and bravery and you-go-girls.
The funny thing is, I personally don't have a problem if that was her job for ten years or more, a job's a job. But there is such a thing as a time and a place, such a thing as over sharing...
Surely Sunak and Tugendhat don't have enough votes between them to get Tugendhat to the Final - even if Rishi lent Tom all his surplus votes (which he won't - as he can't cut it too fine and also he'll want to be clearly in the lead).
They do I would think. I would have thought by the final 4 candidates Sunak + Tugendhat combined would be just over 50% of Tory MPs
It doesn’t concern you at all that Tom’s launch bombed today, with many of us giggling at how weird and hopeless he is at public speaking?
The most incongruous religious connection is that of Suella - she’s a Buddhist who goes around being mean and rather unkind to those less fortunate than herself. I would have thought that was entirely counter to the teachings of her creed?
Even if it was, being horrible to people is not generally a part of most religious creeds but it has never stopped people entirely.
One senior backbench MP who was in the room for the Common Sense group hustings tells me how Tom Tugendhat "completely fluffed" his answer to a question about Europe. "He was all about European team work and that fell flat on an audience that was full of Brexiteers," they said."
Not surprised about Kemi and net zero. She comes across as a very tribal, hyper political politician. Obviously that might appeal to Conservatives in this campaign, but it creates blind spots and is not a great quality for a PM.
I don't think she's half as formidable as her backers think she is. She'll also undoubtedly be accused of being Gove's puppet.
The whole thing is bonkers. She is not experienced enough to take over in the middle of an economic crisis the like o which we have not seen in decades and with a war in eastern europe that could drag on for years.
She is utterly untested at high office and Tories who think she is ready need to go and take a long cold non-alcoholic drink and get a fecking grip.
LOTO after 2025?
Yeh. May well be.
But now. Nope.
Kemi is the Blue Corbyn.
You're shitting yourself about Kemi v Keir
I assure you that I am not. I can see why she appeals to some Tories though, much as Corbyn appealed to some Labourites. But like Corbyn that appeal is narrow and the lack of any leadership experience is a critical weakness.
Mordaunt is who Starmer and Labour fear most, I reckon. Followed by either Sunak or Tugendhat. After Braverman and Cosplay Thatcher, Badenoch is probably who they most would want to succeed Johnson.
I think the Labour Party would most want Braverman to win.
Champagne corks popping in Labour HQ - Braverman, Zahawi
Pleased - Truss, Hunt
Neutral - Rishi/Tugendhat
Nervous - Penny
WTF is going to happen? - Badenoch
Yep, that's a good analysis
Perhaps a bit more WTF and *actual panic* with Badenoch: how on earth would Labour, and the wider Left, deal with a young black female rightwing Tory leader? How? I can't see any attack lines, prima facie
Badenoch could be an enormous success, or a terrible failure - we simply don't know enough about her yet to be sure. I could see her leading the Conservatives to a 100 seat majority... or their worst result since 2001.
Yes I agree. It's the Hail Mary play. She really needs to run a big department. Where she can deal with the practicalities rather than just the theory of slash the State. In view of the conversation tonight I would suggest education as a good place to start. She might even learn some things.
Or perhaps not. (Wikipedia) … was also a school governor at St Thomas the Apostle College in Southwark, and the Jubilee Primary School.…
I just had a look at Linkedin. People are venting their fury about Braverman and Badenoch. How can it be possible that they are opposed to net zero! How can they even be allowed to be candidates! ... There was similar fury about the supreme court overturning Roe v Wade. People were going around building "firewalls" around themselves, cancelling their professional contacts who, however cautiously, expressed a different view.
Linkedin used to be where you could find some sanity. Now it is just no different really to facebook. Social media has just made everyone mad. It is all tribal mob rule. Meaningful debate is completely dead.
I cannot imagine discussing politics on LinkedIn. Unless, I worked in politics.
Indeed, Facebook is for family and friends, Instagram for celebs, LinkedIn for work contacts, Twitter for politics
My rule of thumb is that Facebook is for family members who you secretly hate, Instagram is for celebs you secretly hate, LinkedIn is for business associates you secretly hate, and Twitter is for people you are glad you don't know as you secretly hate them.
Not surprised about Kemi and net zero. She comes across as a very tribal, hyper political politician. Obviously that might appeal to Conservatives in this campaign, but it creates blind spots and is not a great quality for a PM.
I don't think she's half as formidable as her backers think she is. She'll also undoubtedly be accused of being Gove's puppet.
The whole thing is bonkers. She is not experienced enough to take over in the middle of an economic crisis the like o which we have not seen in decades and with a war in eastern europe that could drag on for years.
She is utterly untested at high office and Tories who think she is ready need to go and take a long cold non-alcoholic drink and get a fecking grip.
LOTO after 2025?
Yeh. May well be.
But now. Nope.
Kemi is the Blue Corbyn.
You're shitting yourself about Kemi v Keir
I assure you that I am not. I can see why she appeals to some Tories though, much as Corbyn appealed to some Labourites. But like Corbyn that appeal is narrow and the lack of any leadership experience is a critical weakness.
Mordaunt is who Starmer and Labour fear most, I reckon. Followed by either Sunak or Tugendhat. After Braverman and Cosplay Thatcher, Badenoch is probably who they most would want to succeed Johnson.
I think the Labour Party would most want Braverman to win.
Champagne corks popping in Labour HQ - Braverman, Zahawi
Pleased - Truss, Hunt
Neutral - Rishi/Tugendhat
Nervous - Penny
WTF is going to happen? - Badenoch
Yep, that's a good analysis
Perhaps a bit more WTF and *actual panic* with Badenoch: how on earth would Labour, and the wider Left, deal with a young black female rightwing Tory leader? How? I can't see any attack lines, prima facie
Badenoch could be an enormous success, or a terrible failure - we simply don't know enough about her yet to be sure. I could see her leading the Conservatives to a 100 seat majority... or their worst result since 2001.
Yes I agree. It's the Hail Mary play. She really needs to run a big department. Where she can deal with the practicalities rather than just the theory of slash the State. In view of the conversation tonight I would suggest education as a good place to start. She might even learn some things.
Or perhaps not. (Wikipedia) … was also a school governor at St Thomas the Apostle College in Southwark, and the Jubilee Primary School.…
Well either way she will get knocked out before the final round and I am backing Tugendhat who actually is a Roman Catholic
You seem to be assuming that Tugendhat will go further in this contest than Badenoch.
He will, the right vote is currently split between Badenoch, Braverman and Zahawi and Truss and Hunt will probably go out tomorrow and many of his supporters go to Tugendhat who should come 3rd tomorrow.
Sunak will then lend some of his supporters to Tugendhat to try and get Tugendhat as his opponent in the membership vote
For that to work you'd need less than 1/3 of MPs to back the right-wing-positioned person. The right can still muster 1/3 of MPs, can't they???
One senior backbench MP who was in the room for the Common Sense group hustings tells me how Tom Tugendhat "completely fluffed" his answer to a question about Europe. "He was all about European team work and that fell flat on an audience that was full of Brexiteers," they said."
Not surprised about Kemi and net zero. She comes across as a very tribal, hyper political politician. Obviously that might appeal to Conservatives in this campaign, but it creates blind spots and is not a great quality for a PM.
I don't think she's half as formidable as her backers think she is. She'll also undoubtedly be accused of being Gove's puppet.
The whole thing is bonkers. She is not experienced enough to take over in the middle of an economic crisis the like o which we have not seen in decades and with a war in eastern europe that could drag on for years.
She is utterly untested at high office and Tories who think she is ready need to go and take a long cold non-alcoholic drink and get a fecking grip.
LOTO after 2025?
Yeh. May well be.
But now. Nope.
Kemi is the Blue Corbyn.
You're shitting yourself about Kemi v Keir
I assure you that I am not. I can see why she appeals to some Tories though, much as Corbyn appealed to some Labourites. But like Corbyn that appeal is narrow and the lack of any leadership experience is a critical weakness.
Mordaunt is who Starmer and Labour fear most, I reckon. Followed by either Sunak or Tugendhat. After Braverman and Cosplay Thatcher, Badenoch is probably who they most would want to succeed Johnson.
I think the Labour Party would most want Braverman to win.
Champagne corks popping in Labour HQ - Braverman, Zahawi
Pleased - Truss, Hunt
Neutral - Rishi/Tugendhat
Nervous - Penny
WTF is going to happen? - Badenoch
Yep, that's a good analysis
Perhaps a bit more WTF and *actual panic* with Badenoch: how on earth would Labour, and the wider Left, deal with a young black female rightwing Tory leader? How? I can't see any attack lines, prima facie
Badenoch could be an enormous success, or a terrible failure - we simply don't know enough about her yet to be sure. I could see her leading the Conservatives to a 100 seat majority... or their worst result since 2001.
Yes I agree. It's the Hail Mary play. She really needs to run a big department. Where she can deal with the practicalities rather than just the theory of slash the State. In view of the conversation tonight I would suggest education as a good place to start. She might even learn some things.
Or perhaps not. (Wikipedia) … was also a school governor at St Thomas the Apostle College in Southwark, and the Jubilee Primary School.…
Interesting pitch for Kemi. The country is in total shit and she offers something different most of all a non-PPE degree and STEM background so she can analyse the whole mess properly and act:
Collingwood 🇬🇧 @admcollingwood 🧵The Tories face perhaps the most important #LeadershipContest in almost half a century. The candidates are either second rate avatars for the triple liberal consensus (in social, economic and foreign policies) that has led us down a catastrophic cul-de-sac, or are...[1/n]
Since she already demonstrated she can’t analyse the systems in a single classroom, I’m just a little bit sceptical about that claim.
i.e. she’s talking shite.
She might improve after a spell as a minister, possibly.
I wouldn’t be bluntly rude as that, and admit a bias I would never vote for her extreme right wing solutions in a million years, but there is a touch of student days politics about her, a sort of self belief that almost comes across a bit self righteousness or “I am morally and intellectually superior”.
Not surprised about Kemi and net zero. She comes across as a very tribal, hyper political politician. Obviously that might appeal to Conservatives in this campaign, but it creates blind spots and is not a great quality for a PM.
I don't think she's half as formidable as her backers think she is. She'll also undoubtedly be accused of being Gove's puppet.
The whole thing is bonkers. She is not experienced enough to take over in the middle of an economic crisis the like o which we have not seen in decades and with a war in eastern europe that could drag on for years.
She is utterly untested at high office and Tories who think she is ready need to go and take a long cold non-alcoholic drink and get a fecking grip.
LOTO after 2025?
Yeh. May well be.
But now. Nope.
Kemi is the Blue Corbyn.
You're shitting yourself about Kemi v Keir
I assure you that I am not. I can see why she appeals to some Tories though, much as Corbyn appealed to some Labourites. But like Corbyn that appeal is narrow and the lack of any leadership experience is a critical weakness.
Mordaunt is who Starmer and Labour fear most, I reckon. Followed by either Sunak or Tugendhat. After Braverman and Cosplay Thatcher, Badenoch is probably who they most would want to succeed Johnson.
I think the Labour Party would most want Braverman to win.
Champagne corks popping in Labour HQ - Braverman, Zahawi
Pleased - Truss, Hunt
Neutral - Rishi/Tugendhat
Nervous - Penny
WTF is going to happen? - Badenoch
Yep, that's a good analysis
Perhaps a bit more WTF and *actual panic* with Badenoch: how on earth would Labour, and the wider Left, deal with a young black female rightwing Tory leader? How? I can't see any attack lines, prima facie
Badenoch could be an enormous success, or a terrible failure - we simply don't know enough about her yet to be sure. I could see her leading the Conservatives to a 100 seat majority... or their worst result since 2001.
Yes I agree. It's the Hail Mary play. She really needs to run a big department. Where she can deal with the practicalities rather than just the theory of slash the State. In view of the conversation tonight I would suggest education as a good place to start. She might even learn some things.
Or perhaps not. (Wikipedia) … was also a school governor at St Thomas the Apostle College in Southwark, and the Jubilee Primary School.…
One senior backbench MP who was in the room for the Common Sense group hustings tells me how Tom Tugendhat "completely fluffed" his answer to a question about Europe. "He was all about European team work and that fell flat on an audience that was full of Brexiteers," they said."
One senior backbench MP who was in the room for the Common Sense group hustings tells me how Tom Tugendhat "completely fluffed" his answer to a question about Europe. "He was all about European team work and that fell flat on an audience that was full of Brexiteers," they said."
He doesn't need to win many Brexiteers, they will all be voting for Badenoch, Mordaunt, Truss, Zahawi, Braverman, even Sunak
How many Remainers are left in the Tory party, both in terms of MPs and members?
Probably at least 30 to 40% of Tory MPs backed Remain in 2016.
So that could be enough to get to the last 2 if Tugendhat wins the majority of them and at least half of Leave backing Tory MPs vote for Sunak in the final 3.
The ERG would go berserk if the membership were offered Sunak v Tugendhat but their fault for some of their members removing Boris and then splitting their candidates multiple ways
Not surprised about Kemi and net zero. She comes across as a very tribal, hyper political politician. Obviously that might appeal to Conservatives in this campaign, but it creates blind spots and is not a great quality for a PM.
I don't think she's half as formidable as her backers think she is. She'll also undoubtedly be accused of being Gove's puppet.
The whole thing is bonkers. She is not experienced enough to take over in the middle of an economic crisis the like o which we have not seen in decades and with a war in eastern europe that could drag on for years.
She is utterly untested at high office and Tories who think she is ready need to go and take a long cold non-alcoholic drink and get a fecking grip.
LOTO after 2025?
Yeh. May well be.
But now. Nope.
Kemi is the Blue Corbyn.
You're shitting yourself about Kemi v Keir
I assure you that I am not. I can see why she appeals to some Tories though, much as Corbyn appealed to some Labourites. But like Corbyn that appeal is narrow and the lack of any leadership experience is a critical weakness.
Mordaunt is who Starmer and Labour fear most, I reckon. Followed by either Sunak or Tugendhat. After Braverman and Cosplay Thatcher, Badenoch is probably who they most would want to succeed Johnson.
I think the Labour Party would most want Braverman to win.
Champagne corks popping in Labour HQ - Braverman, Zahawi
Pleased - Truss, Hunt
Neutral - Rishi/Tugendhat
Nervous - Penny
WTF is going to happen? - Badenoch
Yep, that's a good analysis
Perhaps a bit more WTF and *actual panic* with Badenoch: how on earth would Labour, and the wider Left, deal with a young black female rightwing Tory leader? How? I can't see any attack lines, prima facie
Badenoch could be an enormous success, or a terrible failure - we simply don't know enough about her yet to be sure. I could see her leading the Conservatives to a 100 seat majority... or their worst result since 2001.
Yes I agree. It's the Hail Mary play. She really needs to run a big department. Where she can deal with the practicalities rather than just the theory of slash the State. In view of the conversation tonight I would suggest education as a good place to start. She might even learn some things.
Or perhaps not. (Wikipedia) … was also a school governor at St Thomas the Apostle College in Southwark, and the Jubilee Primary School.…
Important they do this and keep looking for opportunities to announce policies.
The Tory leadership contest gives blanket coverage to the personalities and their ideas, however mad some of them may be. It’s at moments like this that the old Overton window gets shifted and new consensuses pop up regardless of their merits. Labour will need to make a lot of noise to stop Tory ideas taking over the airwaves.
Labour are not going to get a hearing from the media while this contest continues and then it will be all about the cabinet
Labour's first realistic opportunity will be their party conference on the 25th September
So they need to disrupt. Do unexpected things, announce policies they know will wind up some of the candidates while secretly appealing to others.
If I were them I would focus on the state of the Heath service and policing remorselessly. For the former a grand plan to reverse the ever increasing waiting times, overflowing A&E, staff shortages, ambulance crisis. For the latter anything half decent to spotlight the fact the Tories seem to forgotten about crime prevention as an issue.
Surely Sunak and Tugendhat don't have enough votes between them to get Tugendhat to the Final - even if Rishi lent Tom all his surplus votes (which he won't - as he can't cut it too fine and also he'll want to be clearly in the lead).
They do I would think. I would have thought by the final 4 candidates Sunak + Tugendhat combined would be just over 50% of Tory MPs
It doesn’t concern you at all that Tom’s launch bombed today, with many of us giggling at how weird and hopeless he is at public speaking?
He spoke fine
This is one of the few times where it might be relevant to remind you that you voted remain, as did Tugendhat. You converted to full on leave, while he appears to have retained some pragmatism. While that’s fine with you, that’s not necessarily the case for the true believers he was trying to appeal to.
Interesting pitch for Kemi. The country is in total shit and she offers something different most of all a non-PPE degree and STEM background so she can analyse the whole mess properly and act:
Collingwood 🇬🇧 @admcollingwood 🧵The Tories face perhaps the most important #LeadershipContest in almost half a century. The candidates are either second rate avatars for the triple liberal consensus (in social, economic and foreign policies) that has led us down a catastrophic cul-de-sac, or are...[1/n]
Since she already demonstrated she can’t analyse the systems in a single classroom, I’m just a little bit sceptical about that claim.
i.e. she’s talking shite.
She might improve after a spell as a minister, possibly.
I wouldn’t be bluntly rude as that, and admit a bias I would never vote for her extreme right wing solutions in a million years, but there is a touch of student days politics about her, a sort of self belief that almost comes across a bit self righteousness or “I am morally and intellectually superior”.
Just like Michael Gove in fact! 🙂
It is almost worth her winning just to see the look on Truss's face.
I just had a look at Linkedin. People are venting their fury about Braverman and Badenoch. How can it be possible that they are opposed to net zero! How can they even be allowed to be candidates! ... There was similar fury about the supreme court overturning Roe v Wade. People were going around building "firewalls" around themselves, cancelling their professional contacts who, however cautiously, expressed a different view.
Linkedin used to be where you could find some sanity. Now it is just no different really to facebook. Social media has just made everyone mad. It is all tribal mob rule. Meaningful debate is completely dead.
I cannot imagine discussing politics on LinkedIn. Unless, I worked in politics.
Indeed, Facebook is for family and friends, Instagram for celebs, LinkedIn for work contacts, Twitter for politics
My rule of thumb is that Facebook is for family members who you secretly hate, Instagram is for celebs you secretly hate, LinkedIn is for business associates you secretly hate, and Twitter is for people you are glad you don't know as you secretly hate them.
I've just read (not realised) that David Davis has endorsed Penny Mordaunt. He's known as an arch-networker, and I think this is extremely encouraging for those who support her.
Surely Sunak and Tugendhat don't have enough votes between them to get Tugendhat to the Final - even if Rishi lent Tom all his surplus votes (which he won't - as he can't cut it too fine and also he'll want to be clearly in the lead).
They do I would think. I would have thought by the final 4 candidates Sunak + Tugendhat combined would be just over 50% of Tory MPs
It doesn’t concern you at all that Tom’s launch bombed today, with many of us giggling at how weird and hopeless he is at public speaking?
I just had a look at Linkedin. People are venting their fury about Braverman and Badenoch. How can it be possible that they are opposed to net zero! How can they even be allowed to be candidates! ... There was similar fury about the supreme court overturning Roe v Wade. People were going around building "firewalls" around themselves, cancelling their professional contacts who, however cautiously, expressed a different view.
Linkedin used to be where you could find some sanity. Now it is just no different really to facebook. Social media has just made everyone mad. It is all tribal mob rule. Meaningful debate is completely dead.
I cannot imagine discussing politics on LinkedIn. Unless, I worked in politics.
Indeed, Facebook is for family and friends, Instagram for celebs, LinkedIn for work contacts, Twitter for politics
My rule of thumb is that Facebook is for family members who you secretly hate, Instagram is for celebs you secretly hate, LinkedIn is for business associates you secretly hate, and Twitter is for people you are glad you don't know as you secretly hate them.
Important they do this and keep looking for opportunities to announce policies.
The Tory leadership contest gives blanket coverage to the personalities and their ideas, however mad some of them may be. It’s at moments like this that the old Overton window gets shifted and new consensuses pop up regardless of their merits. Labour will need to make a lot of noise to stop Tory ideas taking over the airwaves.
If there's a shift in the Overton window going on and a new consensus emerging it is happening as the Conservative candidates collectively shred any remaining reputation for prudent economic management that their party might once have claimed. In the face of myriad competing policies for unfunded tax cuts, the Conservatives seem hell bent of racking up yet more gazillions in public sector debt while failing to address the pain felt in household budgets by properly targeted measures of alleviation.
Truly the tables of fiscal responsibility seem to have turned, and Reeves speech tomorrow will no doubt ram home that message.
Surely Sunak and Tugendhat don't have enough votes between them to get Tugendhat to the Final - even if Rishi lent Tom all his surplus votes (which he won't - as he can't cut it too fine and also he'll want to be clearly in the lead).
They do I would think. I would have thought by the final 4 candidates Sunak + Tugendhat combined would be just over 50% of Tory MPs
They would need well over 50% as the other two won't split equally and Sunak must retain a clear lead for momentum purposes.
So it would need to be something like:
Sunak 30 Tugendhat 25 Mordaunt 23 Truss 22
And I'm not sure that's realistic. If the right coalesce around Truss she surely gets over 25%.
And add in the factor, the second it’s clear Truss is in member ballot with Sunak she gets a pile on of support as the certain winner, many will want or maintain access to the greasy pole.
Interesting pitch for Kemi. The country is in total shit and she offers something different most of all a non-PPE degree and STEM background so she can analyse the whole mess properly and act:
Collingwood 🇬🇧 @admcollingwood 🧵The Tories face perhaps the most important #LeadershipContest in almost half a century. The candidates are either second rate avatars for the triple liberal consensus (in social, economic and foreign policies) that has led us down a catastrophic cul-de-sac, or are...[1/n]
Since she already demonstrated she can’t analyse the systems in a single classroom, I’m just a little bit sceptical about that claim.
i.e. she’s talking shite.
She might improve after a spell as a minister, possibly.
I wouldn’t be bluntly rude as that, and admit a bias I would never vote for her extreme right wing solutions in a million years, but there is a touch of student days politics about her, a sort of self belief that almost comes across a bit self righteousness or “I am morally and intellectually superior”.
Just like Michael Gove in fact! 🙂
It is almost worth her winning just to see the look on Truss's face.
In college basketball contests in the US, there are stock phrases for the teams left after the first rounds of competition; "Sweet Sixteen", "Final Four", and, though less common, in between those two. the "Elite Eight".
Whether that last phrase is appropriate for these eight is something I will leave to you all.
Surely Sunak and Tugendhat don't have enough votes between them to get Tugendhat to the Final - even if Rishi lent Tom all his surplus votes (which he won't - as he can't cut it too fine and also he'll want to be clearly in the lead).
They do I would think. I would have thought by the final 4 candidates Sunak + Tugendhat combined would be just over 50% of Tory MPs
They would need well over 50% as the other two won't split equally and Sunak must retain a clear lead for momentum purposes.
So it would need to be something like:
Sunak 30 Tugendhat 25 Mordaunt 23 Truss 22
And I'm not sure that's realistic. If the right coalesce around Truss she surely gets over 25%.
Sunak in that scenario would lend a few MPs to Mordaunt and Tugendhat to knock out Truss.
Then Sunak would lend more MPs to Tugendhat in the final round to knock out Mordaunt, expecting to pick up a few Truss backing MPs himself.
Gavin Williamson is running Sunak's campaign in terms of managing MPs support, he already gave Hunt a few MPs to get nominated. If and when Hunt gets knocked out Sir Gavin's cunning masterplan will be to shore up Tugendhat to try and get him to face Sunak in the members vote rather than Truss or Mordaunt
In college basketball contests in the US, there are stock phrases for the teams left after the first rounds of competition; "Sweet Sixteen", "Final Four", and, though less common, in between those two. the "Elite Eight".
Whether that last phrase is appropriate for these eight is something I will leave to you all.
Surely Sunak and Tugendhat don't have enough votes between them to get Tugendhat to the Final - even if Rishi lent Tom all his surplus votes (which he won't - as he can't cut it too fine and also he'll want to be clearly in the lead).
They do I would think. I would have thought by the final 4 candidates Sunak + Tugendhat combined would be just over 50% of Tory MPs
They would need well over 50% as the other two won't split equally and Sunak must retain a clear lead for momentum purposes.
So it would need to be something like:
Sunak 30 Tugendhat 25 Mordaunt 23 Truss 22
And I'm not sure that's realistic. If the right coalesce around Truss she surely gets over 25%.
And add in the factor, the second it’s clear Truss is in member ballot with Sunak she gets a pile on of support as the certain winner, many will want or maintain access to the greasy pole.
The impression I get - and I may well be completely misreading this as I am not in the party - is that everyone is fighting to be the second of the two being put forward with Sunak because they know that if they are then chances are they will win. Based on the recent head to heads that were being posted here, Sunak loses against most opposition once the membership get their turn.
Important they do this and keep looking for opportunities to announce policies.
The Tory leadership contest gives blanket coverage to the personalities and their ideas, however mad some of them may be. It’s at moments like this that the old Overton window gets shifted and new consensuses pop up regardless of their merits. Labour will need to make a lot of noise to stop Tory ideas taking over the airwaves.
Labour are not going to get a hearing from the media while this contest continues and then it will be all about the cabinet
Labour's first realistic opportunity will be their party conference on the 25th September
So they need to disrupt. Do unexpected things, announce policies they know will wind up some of the candidates while secretly appealing to others.
If I were them I would focus on the state of the Heath service and policing remorselessly. For the former a grand plan to reverse the ever increasing waiting times, overflowing A&E, staff shortages, ambulance crisis. For the latter anything half decent to spotlight the fact the Tories seem to forgotten about crime prevention as an issue.
You really do not know the UK media who once have a bone they do not let go
Labour will not get coverage in this election period and anyway Parliament goes into recess a week tomorrow night
Surely Sunak and Tugendhat don't have enough votes between them to get Tugendhat to the Final - even if Rishi lent Tom all his surplus votes (which he won't - as he can't cut it too fine and also he'll want to be clearly in the lead).
They do I would think. I would have thought by the final 4 candidates Sunak + Tugendhat combined would be just over 50% of Tory MPs
They would need well over 50% as the other two won't split equally and Sunak must retain a clear lead for momentum purposes.
So it would need to be something like:
Sunak 30 Tugendhat 25 Mordaunt 23 Truss 22
And I'm not sure that's realistic. If the right coalesce around Truss she surely gets over 25%.
Sunak in that scenario would lend a few MPs to Mordaunt and Tugendhat to knock out Truss.
Then Sunak would lend more MPs to Tugendhat in the final round to knock out Mordaunt, expecting to pick up a few Truss backing MPs himself.
Gavin Williamson is running Sunak's campaign in terms of managing MPs support, he already gave Hunt a few MPs to get nominated. If and when Hunt gets knocked out Sir Gavin's cunning masterplan will be to shore up Tugendhat to try and get him to face Sunak in the members vote rather than Truss or Mordaunt
This seems remarkably tricky to get right in secret ballots.
Surely Sunak and Tugendhat don't have enough votes between them to get Tugendhat to the Final - even if Rishi lent Tom all his surplus votes (which he won't - as he can't cut it too fine and also he'll want to be clearly in the lead).
They do I would think. I would have thought by the final 4 candidates Sunak + Tugendhat combined would be just over 50% of Tory MPs
They would need well over 50% as the other two won't split equally and Sunak must retain a clear lead for momentum purposes.
So it would need to be something like:
Sunak 30 Tugendhat 25 Mordaunt 23 Truss 22
And I'm not sure that's realistic. If the right coalesce around Truss she surely gets over 25%.
And add in the factor, the second it’s clear Truss is in member ballot with Sunak she gets a pile on of support as the certain winner, many will want or maintain access to the greasy pole.
The impression I get - and I may well be completely misreading this as I am not in the party - is that everyone is fighting to be the second of the two being put forward with Sunak because they know that if they are then chances are they will win. Based on the recent head to heads that were being posted here, Sunak loses against most opposition once the membership get their turn.
Truss, Mordaunt and Badenoch beat Sunak in the ConHome survey today but Sunak still narrowly beat Tugendhat.
Hence Sir Gavin's cunning plan will be to get a Sunak v Tugendhat final 2
Important they do this and keep looking for opportunities to announce policies.
The Tory leadership contest gives blanket coverage to the personalities and their ideas, however mad some of them may be. It’s at moments like this that the old Overton window gets shifted and new consensuses pop up regardless of their merits. Labour will need to make a lot of noise to stop Tory ideas taking over the airwaves.
Labour are not going to get a hearing from the media while this contest continues and then it will be all about the cabinet
Labour's first realistic opportunity will be their party conference on the 25th September
So they need to disrupt. Do unexpected things, announce policies they know will wind up some of the candidates while secretly appealing to others.
If I were them I would focus on the state of the Heath service and policing remorselessly. For the former a grand plan to reverse the ever increasing waiting times, overflowing A&E, staff shortages, ambulance crisis. For the latter anything half decent to spotlight the fact the Tories seem to forgotten about crime prevention as an issue.
You really do not know the UK media who once have a bone they do not let go
Labour will not get coverage in this election period and anyway Parliament goes into recess a week tomorrow night
There was some coverage on Sky of Starmer’s Big Levelling speech at Durham. Though it mainly focussed on the fact he called journalists for their question, and they weren’t there.
They filled the empty seats with school children.
I think Starmer used it to say something quite important…
Surely Sunak and Tugendhat don't have enough votes between them to get Tugendhat to the Final - even if Rishi lent Tom all his surplus votes (which he won't - as he can't cut it too fine and also he'll want to be clearly in the lead).
They do I would think. I would have thought by the final 4 candidates Sunak + Tugendhat combined would be just over 50% of Tory MPs
They would need well over 50% as the other two won't split equally and Sunak must retain a clear lead for momentum purposes.
So it would need to be something like:
Sunak 30 Tugendhat 25 Mordaunt 23 Truss 22
And I'm not sure that's realistic. If the right coalesce around Truss she surely gets over 25%.
And add in the factor, the second it’s clear Truss is in member ballot with Sunak she gets a pile on of support as the certain winner, many will want or maintain access to the greasy pole.
The impression I get - and I may well be completely misreading this as I am not in the party - is that everyone is fighting to be the second of the two being put forward with Sunak because they know that if they are then chances are they will win. Based on the recent head to heads that were being posted here, Sunak loses against most opposition once the membership get their turn.
Truss, Mordaunt and Badenoch beat Sunak in the ConHome survey today but Sunak still narrowly beat Tugendhat.
Hence Sir Gavin's cunning plan will be to get a Sunak v Tugendhat final 2
Surely Sunak and Tugendhat don't have enough votes between them to get Tugendhat to the Final - even if Rishi lent Tom all his surplus votes (which he won't - as he can't cut it too fine and also he'll want to be clearly in the lead).
They do I would think. I would have thought by the final 4 candidates Sunak + Tugendhat combined would be just over 50% of Tory MPs
They would need well over 50% as the other two won't split equally and Sunak must retain a clear lead for momentum purposes.
So it would need to be something like:
Sunak 30 Tugendhat 25 Mordaunt 23 Truss 22
And I'm not sure that's realistic. If the right coalesce around Truss she surely gets over 25%.
Sunak in that scenario would lend a few MPs to Mordaunt and Tugendhat to knock out Truss.
Then Sunak would lend more MPs to Tugendhat in the final round to knock out Mordaunt, expecting to pick up a few Truss backing MPs himself.
Gavin Williamson is running Sunak's campaign in terms of managing MPs support, he already gave Hunt a few MPs to get nominated. If and when Hunt gets knocked out Sir Gavin's cunning masterplan will be to shore up Tugendhat to try and get him to face Sunak in the members vote rather than Truss or Mordaunt
This seems remarkably tricky to get right in secret ballots.
I really do not put a lot of credence in that - Williamson could not organise a raffle
Comments
And sets a very poor precedent.
Very interesting article in NYT on this.
Twitter (or Musk?) is registered in Dover under the corporate laws of Delaware. Like most corporations on the face of earth, apparently.
When I was a lad, one of my favorite gags from "Get Smart" was when, at the end of a rouge TV broadcast threatening world destruction by global criminal conspiracy "KAOS" unless mega-billions were paid in ransom, the bad-guy announcer signed off with -
"This warning comes to you from KAOS - a Delaware corporation".
The Tory leadership contest gives blanket coverage to the personalities and their ideas, however mad some of them may be. It’s at moments like this that the old Overton window gets shifted and new consensuses pop up regardless of their merits. Labour will need to make a lot of noise to stop Tory ideas taking over the airwaves.
“The national average has declined for 27 days straight, or four weeks, the longest decline in average gas prices since the pandemic started in 2020. Average gas prices are down nearly 40 cents, with Americans shelling out $140 million less on gasoline every day than they did a month ago,” said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy. "
source: https://www.gasbuddy.com/go/gas-price-decline-accelerates-steepest-since-pandemic-began
Will the decline continue? De Haan admits he doesn't know.
Tomorrow the UD Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the June CPI estimate, giving us an overall measure.
And there hasn't been one of them.
Cummings seems to be supporting Sunak. Is Gove trying to split the anti Sunak vote? Or does he genuinely believe in Kemi? Perhaps as much as we would all love to believe it there may be no Murdoch/Gove/Cummings alliance.
I disagree that Gove is easily expendable. They need competent Brexiteers and there aren't that many of them.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Specific_performance
In this case, that’s stupidity, not genius.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DPXZFy6YVrU
At the very least it seems there is an arguable point, and even if it is wrong, the aggrieved party have a means of bypassing it if they wish to challenge the playing of silly buggers. If the blocker says 'You cannot do X, you must do Y' the solution is pretty obvious, and one they cannot stymie further.
Collingwood 🇬🇧
@admcollingwood
🧵The Tories face perhaps the most important #LeadershipContest in almost half a century. The candidates are either second rate avatars for the triple liberal consensus (in social, economic and foreign policies) that has led us down a catastrophic cul-de-sac, or are...[1/n]
https://twitter.com/admcollingwood/status/1546970600111017988
Labour's first realistic opportunity will be their party conference on the 25th September
It is the most depressing place on earth, and surely evidence that 99% of humans are actually NPCs.
We are born in blood and screams. We age, get sick and then die. In that order if we are fortunate.
That's it. What we do in between determines just how bad it will be next time. There is a minuscule chance we will be reborn human.
So. We try to be kind. As this determines our rebirth. But being kind doesn't mean suffering fools or telling folk what they want to hear.
Being "nice" is a platitude.
Sort out your mind and your delusions that this is real. Shape up and wake up.
@camillahmturner
One senior backbench MP who was in the room for the Common Sense group hustings tells me how Tom Tugendhat "completely fluffed" his answer to a question about Europe. "He was all about European team work and that fell flat on an audience that was full of Brexiteers," they said."
https://twitter.com/camillahmturner/status/1546954929033601024
i.e. she’s talking shite.
She might improve after a spell as a minister, possibly.
I just can't imagine using it in any other way. Why would I want to put off people who might offer me a job by getting into an argument with them about politics?
So it would need to be something like:
Sunak 30
Tugendhat 25
Mordaunt 23
Truss 22
And I'm not sure that's realistic. If the right coalesce around Truss she surely gets over 25%.
Hey ho.
The annoying thing about LinkedIn is, as far as I know, it promotes popular posts around the network and you can't tune it to only show you posts from people you know.
There was a post I saw on there the other day from a woman who was proudly announcing she was adding "sex worker" to her linkedin job history because sex work was real work, and it was about time blah blah, yadda yadda.
And all I could think was, crikey, I'm not sure I'd employ someone who put "hooker" on their CV. But her post was teeming with likes and bravery and you-go-girls.
The funny thing is, I personally don't have a problem if that was her job for ten years or more, a job's a job. But there is such a thing as a time and a place, such a thing as over sharing...
Political associates we openly hate?
Just like Michael Gove in fact! 🙂
It's like you people are in denial or something.
He’s already tried to elide his remain vote with ads saying “I voted to Brexit 18 times”, so this was more a verdict than a misstep by him.
The next leader will require at least the acquiescence of both wings of the party.
So that could be enough to get to the last 2 if Tugendhat wins the majority of them and at least half of Leave backing Tory MPs vote for Sunak in the final 3.
The ERG would go berserk if the membership were offered Sunak v Tugendhat but their fault for some of their members removing Boris and then splitting their candidates multiple ways
If I were them I would focus on the state of the Heath service and policing remorselessly. For the former a grand plan to reverse the ever increasing waiting times, overflowing A&E, staff shortages, ambulance crisis. For the latter anything half decent to spotlight the fact the Tories seem to forgotten about crime prevention as an issue.
You converted to full on leave, while he appears to have retained some pragmatism. While that’s fine with you, that’s not necessarily the case for the true believers he was trying to appeal to.
Truly the tables of fiscal responsibility seem to have turned, and Reeves speech tomorrow will no doubt ram home that message.
https://unherd.com/thepost/why-does-penny-mordaunt-hate-dads-army/
"Why does Penny Mordaunt hate Dad’s Army?
This is no laughing matter for the leadership contender"
Whether that last phrase is appropriate for these eight is something I will leave to you all.
Then Sunak would lend more MPs to Tugendhat in the final round to knock out Mordaunt, expecting to pick up a few Truss backing MPs himself.
Gavin Williamson is running Sunak's campaign in terms of managing MPs support, he already gave Hunt a few MPs to get nominated. If and when Hunt gets knocked out Sir Gavin's cunning masterplan will be to shore up Tugendhat to try and get him to face Sunak in the members vote rather than Truss or Mordaunt
Heathrow forecast to be 38 degrees next Tuesday.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2647216
Labour will not get coverage in this election period and anyway Parliament goes into recess a week tomorrow night
I think one of Croft and Perry was actually in a concert party, the other worked in a department store - so its funny as it’s believable.
And lost.
Hence Sir Gavin's cunning plan will be to get a Sunak v Tugendhat final 2
https://conservativehome.com/2022/07/12/next-tory-leader-run-offs-sixth-rishi-sunak/
They filled the empty seats with school children.
I think Starmer used it to say something quite important…
I Can’t remember what that was though.
My grandfather was in the Wigan Home Guard. They were nearly all miners in reserved occupations and hard as nails.