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The Johnson Premiership – Are we seeing the end days? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited July 10 in General
imageThe Johnson Premiership – Are we seeing the end days? – politicalbetting.com

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  • TimSTimS Posts: 2,206
    edited July 5
    FPT: Remain-inclined politicians should make the most of the next few weeks by talking about Boris Brexit, Brexit Boris, Boris Johnson's disastrous Brexit etc as often and repeatedly as possible. Aim to cause some collateral damage.

    It worked - very well, in both directions - with "Blair's illegal invasion of Iraq" or "Clegg's AV referendum", in both cases associating an unpopular politician with a cause.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 53,782
    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    8m
    Boris Johnson’s position is untenable. The dam’s burst now. There are only two outcomes. He resigns, or his party will remove him. And it will happen relatively quickly.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 53,782
    It is always the cover up that gets them in the end.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 53,782

    Kevin Schofield
    @KevinASchofield
    ·
    12m
    Hearing that "lots" of no confidence letters have gone in to Graham Brady today.

    But under current Tory party rules, no vote can take place before next June.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 2,206

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    8m
    Boris Johnson’s position is untenable. The dam’s burst now. There are only two outcomes. He resigns, or his party will remove him. And it will happen relatively quickly.

    Funny thing is I get the sense this story has done much less damage to the Tories in public opinion than partygate did. There seems to be less cut-through. But it's going to do for Boris.

    The Daily Mail has now turned and in Tory land that's one of the most important things.

    But have the donors spoken yet?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 19,648
    Betfair offering 3.4 at the time of writing against BJ being leader at the Conference. If they're going to remove him, I'd think they'd want to do it before then so successor X gets a launchpad. So it may be value, more than the "this year" 2.14. If he lasts till October he'll last till January.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 5,661
    Thers only one bet left. Does Boris beat May? 4 weeks 3 days. Yes if he resigns and serves during a leader contest. No if theres a coronation or he flounces. Surely Chamberlain can't hold on just 2 days ahead of him?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 5,661

    Betfair offering 3.4 at the time of writing against BJ being leader at the Conference. If they're going to remove him, I'd think they'd want to do it before then so successor X gets a launchpad. So it may be value, more than the "this year" 2.14. If he lasts till October he'll last till January.

    Yes, agreed. Its now or its not in this cricket season
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 5,661
    TimS said:

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    8m
    Boris Johnson’s position is untenable. The dam’s burst now. There are only two outcomes. He resigns, or his party will remove him. And it will happen relatively quickly.

    Funny thing is I get the sense this story has done much less damage to the Tories in public opinion than partygate did. There seems to be less cut-through. But it's going to do for Boris.

    The Daily Mail has now turned and in Tory land that's one of the most important things.

    But have the donors spoken yet?
    Partygate was letting us down
    Pincher is letting his MPs down
    Sad it takes b to facilitate the end a should have brought
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 42,995
    This is not going well... Caroline Johnson - a Tory MP I never recall stepping a centimetre out of line - asks Ellis a deeply hostile question asking why Pincher was ever appointed to a new government job after the Foreign Office complaint
    https://mobile.twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1544291292217282560
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 25,193
    Bone suggests Labour call a VoNC. Be careful what you wish for...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 42,995
    The pitiful sophistry on offer in the Commons is unlikely to help the PM.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,388
    Starmer still favourite as next PM, at 7.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 29,030

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    8m
    Boris Johnson’s position is untenable. The dam’s burst now. There are only two outcomes. He resigns, or his party will remove him. And it will happen relatively quickly.

    The toast is toast. Part 257.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 25,193
    you know I think one of the worst things for me, ultimately, is the fact that none of this is in any way surprising, and that if three years ago you'd offered me a window into today's shitshow I would have looked in and gone "yeah, I mean what else was anyone else expecting"
    https://twitter.com/youngvulgarian/status/1544293146502336513
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 42,995

    Betfair offering 3.4 at the time of writing against BJ being leader at the Conference. If they're going to remove him, I'd think they'd want to do it before then so successor X gets a launchpad. So it may be value, more than the "this year" 2.14. If he lasts till October he'll last till January.

    If he holds on that long, it's hard to see how they summon up the courage to dump him before the election, new opportunity to have a challenge notwithstanding.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 25,193
    this would be interesting...

    For three consecutive days, the minister on the broadcast round has said something that turned out to be untrue

    Who is going to volunteer for tomorrow morning?

    https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1544298195966107648

    We’re getting to the point where it would be reasonable to ask if we should even have them on. Fwiw I would almost always say “yes”, but there’s a growing case to be made for the opposite.
    https://twitter.com/skynewsniall/status/1544299310422138880
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 42,995
    Fair to say that all of this is going down absolutely appallingly among Tory MPs.

    A Government source says: "Backbenchers who went back to constituency surgeries at the weekend were being asked by voters how many boys they had touched up this week. The mood is not great."

    https://mobile.twitter.com/Tony_Diver/status/1544289293404971008
  • LeonLeon Posts: 26,362
    Hartlepool does feel like quite a long time ago
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 23,517

    TimS said:

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    8m
    Boris Johnson’s position is untenable. The dam’s burst now. There are only two outcomes. He resigns, or his party will remove him. And it will happen relatively quickly.

    Funny thing is I get the sense this story has done much less damage to the Tories in public opinion than partygate did. There seems to be less cut-through. But it's going to do for Boris.

    The Daily Mail has now turned and in Tory land that's one of the most important things.

    But have the donors spoken yet?
    Partygate was letting us down
    Pincher is letting his MPs down
    Sad it takes b to facilitate the end a should have brought
    I am sorry to say, but it may be the constant lying to journalists which does for this administration.
    Have noticed a serious change of tone from them this week.
    They are simply caveating the government line now. Even the tame ones.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 20,597
    When they say that "lots" of letters are going into Mrs Brady, I have to ask how many need to go in during a very short period of time before the current '22 officers decide to unilaterally change the rules?

    It seems very likely that a new exec will be elected who will do so. But what if the tsunami is great enough to force the outgoing one to do so?

    Unless a cabinet minister resigns - and they're all amorally frit - its up to the non-stupid backbenchers and the '22. Or a senior civil servant goes over the top and then we get to watch Peter Bone saying "who elected them, we have a majority, we do what we want"
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 23,517
    Leon said:

    Hartlepool does feel like quite a long time ago

    About 1953.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 15,373
    Have Peter Bone and HYUFD ever been seen in the same room together?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 29,030
    edited July 5

    TimS said:

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    8m
    Boris Johnson’s position is untenable. The dam’s burst now. There are only two outcomes. He resigns, or his party will remove him. And it will happen relatively quickly.

    Funny thing is I get the sense this story has done much less damage to the Tories in public opinion than partygate did. There seems to be less cut-through. But it's going to do for Boris.

    The Daily Mail has now turned and in Tory land that's one of the most important things.

    But have the donors spoken yet?
    Partygate was letting us down
    Pincher is letting his MPs down
    Sad it takes b to facilitate the end a should have brought
    Pincher was appointed to a position where he was above them and had leverage over them. That would tend to concentrate the mind.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 9,641

    When they say that "lots" of letters are going into Mrs Brady, I have to ask how many need to go in during a very short period of time before the current '22 officers decide to unilaterally change the rules?

    It seems very likely that a new exec will be elected who will do so. But what if the tsunami is great enough to force the outgoing one to do so?

    Unless a cabinet minister resigns - and they're all amorally frit - its up to the non-stupid backbenchers and the '22. Or a senior civil servant goes over the top and then we get to watch Peter Bone saying "who elected them, we have a majority, we do what we want"

    If they receive letters from 50%+1 MPs then any confidence vote would be a formality, and hiding behind the rules to avoid one would seem to be difficult. Whether there's a lower threshold that prompts action earlier, I'm not sure.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 15,373
    TimS said:

    Advice to Boris: the best way to rally the troops now would be to call a snap election. That'll bring everyone reluctantly into line.

    Go on, do it. You know you want to.

    Yours sincerely,
    Southern Counties Lib Dem Association.

    I’ll be up for Mogg.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 102,905
    edited July 5
    TimS said:

    FPT: Remain-inclined politicians should make the most of the next few weeks by talking about Boris Brexit, Brexit Boris, Boris Johnson's disastrous Brexit etc as often and repeatedly as possible. Aim to cause some collateral damage.

    It worked - very well, in both directions - with "Blair's illegal invasion of Iraq" or "Clegg's AV referendum", in both cases associating an unpopular politician with a cause.

    Given Starmer has just ruled out rejoining the EU and rejoining the SM then Boris, if he goes his likely successor as PM Ben Wallace and the leader of the Opposition all now back Brexit.

    So whether Boris stays or goes, we will still have Brexit and still be out of the single market unless the LDs win the next general election
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 5,082
    Although I'm hopeful that Boris will be defenestrated shortly, I suspect it's much more likely that the gang of yes-people and sycophants who need to wield the dagger will yet again hesitate: "it's the summer recess soon - let's see how the land lies when everybody returns from their holidays". Hope I'm wrong.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 2,145
    I was under the impression that the Whips kept little black books, so if there were questions around an MP, the PM could go to the Whips and be quickly informed of, e.g., a prior complaint against them and when it happened. That way a PM doesn’t have to remember every detail themself. Did Johnson not ask his own Chief Whip about Pincher?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 5,661

    I was under the impression that the Whips kept little black books, so if there were questions around an MP, the PM could go to the Whips and be quickly informed of, e.g., a prior complaint against them and when it happened. That way a PM doesn’t have to remember every detail themself. Did Johnson not ask his own Chief Whip about Pincher?

    Yes and appointed him anywayi think is the answer. He doesnt care
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 25,193
    My bit on No 10’s Pincher lies unravelling fast, the bombshell Lord McDonald letter, and a cabinet of absolute gibbering invertebrates  https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jul/05/dominic-raab-boris-johnson-chris-pincher-scandal?CMP=share_btn_tw
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 15,373
    Scott_xP said:

    you know I think one of the worst things for me, ultimately, is the fact that none of this is in any way surprising, and that if three years ago you'd offered me a window into today's shitshow I would have looked in and gone "yeah, I mean what else was anyone else expecting"
    https://twitter.com/youngvulgarian/status/1544293146502336513

    Any vaguely sentient commentator knew the Boris project would collapse under the groaning weight of his own ineptitude and deceit in 2016.

    More informed ones, who perhaps knew Boris or Tory politics more closely, surely understood this even in the 2000s.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 1,754

    When they say that "lots" of letters are going into Mrs Brady, I have to ask how many need to go in during a very short period of time before the current '22 officers decide to unilaterally change the rules?

    It seems very likely that a new exec will be elected who will do so. But what if the tsunami is great enough to force the outgoing one to do so?

    Unless a cabinet minister resigns - and they're all amorally frit - its up to the non-stupid backbenchers and the '22. Or a senior civil servant goes over the top and then we get to watch Peter Bone saying "who elected them, we have a majority, we do what we want"

    If they receive letters from 50%+1 MPs then any confidence vote would be a formality, and hiding behind the rules to avoid one would seem to be difficult. Whether there's a lower threshold that prompts action earlier, I'm not sure.
    It would be hilarious if, on receiving 50%+1 letters it automatically triggered a defenestration if the theory that Boris had got his supporters to send in letters to ensure the VOC at a better time for him.

    Hoist by own petard spectacularly.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 102,905
    edited July 5

    TimS said:

    Advice to Boris: the best way to rally the troops now would be to call a snap election. That'll bring everyone reluctantly into line.

    Go on, do it. You know you want to.

    Yours sincerely,
    Southern Counties Lib Dem Association.

    I’ll be up for Mogg.
    Mogg will likely survive even if Hunt, Redwood, Raab, Brady and Baker probably won't
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 5,661
    Im going for a walk. If pb could arrange for some juice for me to return to that would be good
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    edited July 5

    Have Peter Bone and HYUFD ever been seen in the same room together?

    President Xi..... its UK PM Boris Johnson on the line. He says that if you did have designs on Taiwan, now would be a good time for him, news wise....''
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 25,193

    Any vaguely sentient commentator knew the Boris project would collapse under the groaning weight of his own ineptitude and deceit in 2016.

    More informed ones, who perhaps knew Boris or Tory politics more closely, surely understood this even in the 2000s.

    Even this guy...

    The weirdest aspect of the utterly predictable collapse of Boris Johnson as Prime Minister is that it we were all warned of exactly this by, er, Michael Gove in 2016. https://twitter.com/GrifterWatch22/status/1544274025396031488/video/1
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 2,145

    I was under the impression that the Whips kept little black books, so if there were questions around an MP, the PM could go to the Whips and be quickly informed of, e.g., a prior complaint against them and when it happened. That way a PM doesn’t have to remember every detail themself. Did Johnson not ask his own Chief Whip about Pincher?

    Yes and appointed him anywayi think is the answer. He doesnt care
    And one wonders whether Johnson in the last few days asked his Chief Whip for a quick refresher on Pincher. It would seem the obvious thing to do, to prevent against embarrassing memory lapses.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 42,995

    I was under the impression that the Whips kept little black books, so if there were questions around an MP, the PM could go to the Whips and be quickly informed of, e.g., a prior complaint against them and when it happened. That way a PM doesn’t have to remember every detail themself. Did Johnson not ask his own Chief Whip about Pincher?

    We know from this morning's revelations that Johnson was briefed directly.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,054

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    8m
    Boris Johnson’s position is untenable. The dam’s burst now. There are only two outcomes. He resigns, or his party will remove him. And it will happen relatively quickly.

    Given his track record for predictions, I think we can say Johnson is safe until 2024.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 2,206
    HYUFD said:

    TimS said:

    FPT: Remain-inclined politicians should make the most of the next few weeks by talking about Boris Brexit, Brexit Boris, Boris Johnson's disastrous Brexit etc as often and repeatedly as possible. Aim to cause some collateral damage.

    It worked - very well, in both directions - with "Blair's illegal invasion of Iraq" or "Clegg's AV referendum", in both cases associating an unpopular politician with a cause.

    Given Starmer has just ruled out rejoining the EU and rejoining the SM then Boris, if he goes his likely successor as PM Ben Wallace and the leader of the Opposition all now back Brexit.

    So whether Boris stays or goes, we will still have Brexit and still be out of the single market unless the LDs win the next general election
    Long game, mate. It took years for the obvious blunder of Iraq to get firmly rooted in received wisdom.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 42,995
    HYUFD said:

    TimS said:

    FPT: Remain-inclined politicians should make the most of the next few weeks by talking about Boris Brexit, Brexit Boris, Boris Johnson's disastrous Brexit etc as often and repeatedly as possible. Aim to cause some collateral damage.

    It worked - very well, in both directions - with "Blair's illegal invasion of Iraq" or "Clegg's AV referendum", in both cases associating an unpopular politician with a cause.

    Given Starmer has just ruled out rejoining the EU and rejoining the SM then Boris, if he goes his likely successor as PM Ben Wallace and the leader of the Opposition all now back Brexit.

    So whether Boris stays or goes, we will still have Brexit and still be out of the single market unless the LDs win the next general election
    No reason to hang on to him, then.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 15,373

    I was under the impression that the Whips kept little black books, so if there were questions around an MP, the PM could go to the Whips and be quickly informed of, e.g., a prior complaint against them and when it happened. That way a PM doesn’t have to remember every detail themself. Did Johnson not ask his own Chief Whip about Pincher?

    Yes and appointed him anywayi think is the answer. He doesnt care
    And one wonders whether Johnson in the last few days asked his Chief Whip for a quick refresher on Pincher. It would seem the obvious thing to do, to prevent against embarrassing memory lapses.
    Boris’s claim that he “forgot” is not even worth examining. It’s merely a turd that he’s shaken from his trouser leg.

  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 16,563
    Speaking of the end of days...

    Potentially deadly superbug found in British supermarket pork
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jul/05/potentially-deadly-superbug-found-in-british-supermarket-pork
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 2,145
    Nigelb said:

    I was under the impression that the Whips kept little black books, so if there were questions around an MP, the PM could go to the Whips and be quickly informed of, e.g., a prior complaint against them and when it happened. That way a PM doesn’t have to remember every detail themself. Did Johnson not ask his own Chief Whip about Pincher?

    We know from this morning's revelations that Johnson was briefed directly.
    Indeed. But we’ve been told the PM is a busy man and can’t be expected to remember things. What I find… odd… is that the PM didn’t in these last few days draw on those around him to prompt his failing memory.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 2,206
    MISTY said:

    Have Peter Bone and HYUFD ever been seen in the same room together?

    President Xi..... its UK PM Boris Johnson on the line. He says that if you did have designs on Taiwan, now would be a good time for him, news wise....''
    You joke...

    Trip to Kyiv incoming.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 20,597
    HYUFD said:

    TimS said:

    FPT: Remain-inclined politicians should make the most of the next few weeks by talking about Boris Brexit, Brexit Boris, Boris Johnson's disastrous Brexit etc as often and repeatedly as possible. Aim to cause some collateral damage.

    It worked - very well, in both directions - with "Blair's illegal invasion of Iraq" or "Clegg's AV referendum", in both cases associating an unpopular politician with a cause.

    Given Starmer has just ruled out rejoining the EU and rejoining the SM then Boris, if he goes his likely successor as PM Ben Wallace and the leader of the Opposition all now back Brexit.

    So whether Boris stays or goes, we will still have Brexit and still be out of the single market unless the LDs win the next general election
    I assume that you personally still support him? And therefore the egregious lies on display?

    At which point do you grow morality and say "enough"?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 42,995
    Several stories like this is recent days.
    More than worrying.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1544292760169185281
    On July 3, a diver from the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant was reported to die after torture by Russian occupiers. This comes as Ukrainian officials warn about a planned Russian provocation at the occupied plant that would create a major nuclear hazard.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 25,193
    TimS said:

    MISTY said:

    Have Peter Bone and HYUFD ever been seen in the same room together?

    President Xi..... its UK PM Boris Johnson on the line. He says that if you did have designs on Taiwan, now would be a good time for him, news wise....''
    You joke...

    Trip to Kyiv incoming.
    They had a phone call this morning
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 7,210
    Scott_xP said:

    Any vaguely sentient commentator knew the Boris project would collapse under the groaning weight of his own ineptitude and deceit in 2016.

    More informed ones, who perhaps knew Boris or Tory politics more closely, surely understood this even in the 2000s.

    Even this guy...

    The weirdest aspect of the utterly predictable collapse of Boris Johnson as Prime Minister is that it we were all warned of exactly this by, er, Michael Gove in 2016. https://twitter.com/GrifterWatch22/status/1544274025396031488/video/1
    Scott_xP said:

    Any vaguely sentient commentator knew the Boris project would collapse under the groaning weight of his own ineptitude and deceit in 2016.

    More informed ones, who perhaps knew Boris or Tory politics more closely, surely understood this even in the 2000s.

    Even this guy...

    The weirdest aspect of the utterly predictable collapse of Boris Johnson as Prime Minister is that it we were all warned of exactly this by, er, Michael Gove in 2016. https://twitter.com/GrifterWatch22/status/1544274025396031488/video/1
    Or John Major, who is alleged to have tried to stop BoJo becoming a Conservative candidate back in the 1990's;

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/john-major-attacks-boris-johnson-again-

    Smart guy.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 102,905
    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    TimS said:

    FPT: Remain-inclined politicians should make the most of the next few weeks by talking about Boris Brexit, Brexit Boris, Boris Johnson's disastrous Brexit etc as often and repeatedly as possible. Aim to cause some collateral damage.

    It worked - very well, in both directions - with "Blair's illegal invasion of Iraq" or "Clegg's AV referendum", in both cases associating an unpopular politician with a cause.

    Given Starmer has just ruled out rejoining the EU and rejoining the SM then Boris, if he goes his likely successor as PM Ben Wallace and the leader of the Opposition all now back Brexit.

    So whether Boris stays or goes, we will still have Brexit and still be out of the single market unless the LDs win the next general election
    Long game, mate. It took years for the obvious blunder of Iraq to get firmly rooted in received wisdom.
    Brown withdrew UK troops from Iraq by the end of 2009.

    There is also far more ideological support for Brexit still now, especially in the redwall, Essex, Kent, Cornwall etc than there ever was for Iraq then
  • LeonLeon Posts: 26,362
    Nigelb said:

    Several stories like this is recent days.
    More than worrying.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1544292760169185281
    On July 3, a diver from the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant was reported to die after torture by Russian occupiers. This comes as Ukrainian officials warn about a planned Russian provocation at the occupied plant that would create a major nuclear hazard.

    Russia is winning. Why do they need to kick off nuclear apocalypse
  • TimSTimS Posts: 2,206

    Scott_xP said:

    Any vaguely sentient commentator knew the Boris project would collapse under the groaning weight of his own ineptitude and deceit in 2016.

    More informed ones, who perhaps knew Boris or Tory politics more closely, surely understood this even in the 2000s.

    Even this guy...

    The weirdest aspect of the utterly predictable collapse of Boris Johnson as Prime Minister is that it we were all warned of exactly this by, er, Michael Gove in 2016. https://twitter.com/GrifterWatch22/status/1544274025396031488/video/1
    Scott_xP said:

    Any vaguely sentient commentator knew the Boris project would collapse under the groaning weight of his own ineptitude and deceit in 2016.

    More informed ones, who perhaps knew Boris or Tory politics more closely, surely understood this even in the 2000s.

    Even this guy...

    The weirdest aspect of the utterly predictable collapse of Boris Johnson as Prime Minister is that it we were all warned of exactly this by, er, Michael Gove in 2016. https://twitter.com/GrifterWatch22/status/1544274025396031488/video/1
    Or John Major, who is alleged to have tried to stop BoJo becoming a Conservative candidate back in the 1990's;

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/john-major-attacks-boris-johnson-again-

    Smart guy.
    This quote: "Ah, Andrew, thanks for coming: what the fuck do you mean by putting Boris Johnson on the candidates’ list?" deserves to sit in the pantheon of prescient F word themed quotes alongside the Russian Warship one.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 6,158
    For all the talk and hype the current betting is odds against Boris leaving in 2022. I actually think this is right. Even the cool headed Mr Smithson is invoking the end of days and has spotted four horsemen, BUT also draws our attention sotto voce to the fact that informed opinion is putting its money on Boris seeing this one out.

    I have no view - except that Rishi missed his chance by not resigning early this year on principle - and that his chance won't return. And that a new appointment of PM must be from outside this body of tainted, craven, unprincipled and spineless government ministers.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 16,563
    Joe Root being cut for SPotY but still 50/1 with 888 and Paddy Power.

    Remember we have the Commonwealth Games, Rugby Ask-Nadine World Cup and Women's Euro football all hosted in Britain this year and then the World Cup.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 16,563
    algarkirk said:

    For all the talk and hype the current betting is odds against Boris leaving in 2022. I actually think this is right. Even the cool headed Mr Smithson is invoking the end of days and has spotted four horsemen, BUT also draws our attention sotto voce to the fact that informed opinion is putting its money on Boris seeing this one out.

    I have no view - except that Rishi missed his chance by not resigning early this year on principle - and that his chance won't return. And that a new appointment of PM must be from outside this body of tainted, craven, unprincipled and spineless government ministers.

    Why must it? Remember the electorate will be MPs and Tory activists.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 2,145

    Speaking of the end of days...

    Potentially deadly superbug found in British supermarket pork
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jul/05/potentially-deadly-superbug-found-in-british-supermarket-pork

    Don’t worry: Johnson committed to building a world-beating UK Health Security Agency to protect us from such risks, and I’m sure he meant it, and the extra funding will be flowing very soon, any day now…
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,054

    Joe Root being cut for SPotY but still 50/1 with 888 and Paddy Power.

    Remember we have the Commonwealth Games, Rugby Ask-Nadine World Cup and Women's Euro football all hosted in Britain this year and then the World Cup.

    + some competition from his batting partner, YJB?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 25,193
    Odds of Boris Johnson being replaced this year rise to 47% (+10pts today).

    https://smrkts.co/3uZC0Ba https://twitter.com/SmarketsPol/status/1544305366288285698/photo/1
  • StockyStocky Posts: 8,469

    Betfair offering 3.4 at the time of writing against BJ being leader at the Conference. If they're going to remove him, I'd think they'd want to do it before then so successor X gets a launchpad. So it may be value, more than the "this year" 2.14. If he lasts till October he'll last till January.

    Yes, I agree. I've been looking at same thing as you.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 14,391

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    8m
    Boris Johnson’s position is untenable. The dam’s burst now. There are only two outcomes. He resigns, or his party will remove him. And it will happen relatively quickly.

    Given his track record for predictions, I think we can say Johnson is safe until 2024.
    Boris is going...

    NOWHERE...

    ...unless the PCP can find a spine and a brain cell between them – and I wouldn't bet on them unearthing either.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,442
    algarkirk said:

    For all the talk and hype the current betting is odds against Boris leaving in 2022. I actually think this is right. Even the cool headed Mr Smithson is invoking the end of days and has spotted four horsemen, BUT also draws our attention sotto voce to the fact that informed opinion is putting its money on Boris seeing this one out.

    I have no view - except that Rishi missed his chance by not resigning early this year on principle - and that his chance won't return. And that a new appointment of PM must be from outside this body of tainted, craven, unprincipled and spineless government ministers.

    Let's not pay too much attention to Ther Markets shall we? Informed opinion is us and the markets are thin enough to be moved by a friendly Russian punting a few roubles to help out a friend
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 26,182

    Scott_xP said:

    you know I think one of the worst things for me, ultimately, is the fact that none of this is in any way surprising, and that if three years ago you'd offered me a window into today's shitshow I would have looked in and gone "yeah, I mean what else was anyone else expecting"
    https://twitter.com/youngvulgarian/status/1544293146502336513

    Any vaguely sentient commentator knew the Boris project would collapse under the groaning weight of his own ineptitude and deceit in 2016.

    More informed ones, who perhaps knew Boris or Tory politics more closely, surely understood this even in the 2000s.
    Even Dall-E knew? Oh, my.
  • eekeek Posts: 21,007
    Scott_xP said:

    TimS said:

    MISTY said:

    Have Peter Bone and HYUFD ever been seen in the same room together?

    President Xi..... its UK PM Boris Johnson on the line. He says that if you did have designs on Taiwan, now would be a good time for him, news wise....''
    You joke...

    Trip to Kyiv incoming.
    They had a phone call this morning
    during which we gave the Ukraine another £100m.

    Mind you that's cheaper than the last actual visit when we gave them £1bn...
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 2,470
    TimS said:

    FPT: Remain-inclined politicians should make the most of the next few weeks by talking about Boris Brexit, Brexit Boris, Boris Johnson's disastrous Brexit etc as often and repeatedly as possible. Aim to cause some collateral damage.

    It worked - very well, in both directions - with "Blair's illegal invasion of Iraq" or "Clegg's AV referendum", in both cases associating an unpopular politician with a cause.

    Doesn’t that give the next PM (assuming it is a Tory) to do a reset. “Boris’s Brexit didn’t work because Boris… we are going to fix it”

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 45,437

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    8m
    Boris Johnson’s position is untenable. The dam’s burst now. There are only two outcomes. He resigns, or his party will remove him. And it will happen relatively quickly.

    Given his track record for predictions, I think we can say Johnson is safe until 2024.
    This once, Hodges is right.

    Boris is friendless. If the 22 vote were re-run now, Boris would lose.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 11,710
    HYUFD said:

    TimS said:

    FPT: Remain-inclined politicians should make the most of the next few weeks by talking about Boris Brexit, Brexit Boris, Boris Johnson's disastrous Brexit etc as often and repeatedly as possible. Aim to cause some collateral damage.

    It worked - very well, in both directions - with "Blair's illegal invasion of Iraq" or "Clegg's AV referendum", in both cases associating an unpopular politician with a cause.

    Given Starmer has just ruled out rejoining the EU and rejoining the SM then Boris, if he goes his likely successor as PM Ben Wallace and the leader of the Opposition all now back Brexit.

    So whether Boris stays or goes, we will still have Brexit and still be out of the single market unless the LDs win the next general election
    Saying that it isn't a wise thing to put the UK through more division to join an organisation that probably doesn't want us anyway is not "backing Brexit" you dimwit

    It is called political expediency. Anyone with half a brain knows that Brexit was a morons charter and utterly pointless. Many of us think that putting us back through the same division and uncertainty is not sensible, but it does not in anyway mean that we "back Brexit" ffs!
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,277
    I've just replaced the betting chart in the header.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 25,193
    Time for someone to FOI No 10 for all notes, papers, emails, text messages by text, WhatsApp, and other messaging service, records held in any form relating to Chris Pincher from the last seven days.
    https://twitter.com/johnmcternan/status/1544307748837462022
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 26,182

    Although I'm hopeful that Boris will be defenestrated shortly, I suspect it's much more likely that the gang of yes-people and sycophants who need to wield the dagger will yet again hesitate: "it's the summer recess soon - let's see how the land lies when everybody returns from their holidays". Hope I'm wrong.

    I don't. It's great advertising for the opposition seeing the Tories try to outdo the Kola Superdeep Borehole.

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 25,193
    Understand leadership contenders revving their engines, some hush hush meetings go on with rebel and pro Boris MPs alike
    https://twitter.com/hoffman_noa/status/1544308518337056770
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 23,517
    £150 received. Kerching!
    Cheers Rishi.
    Now. About the PM.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 102,905

    TimS said:

    FPT: Remain-inclined politicians should make the most of the next few weeks by talking about Boris Brexit, Brexit Boris, Boris Johnson's disastrous Brexit etc as often and repeatedly as possible. Aim to cause some collateral damage.

    It worked - very well, in both directions - with "Blair's illegal invasion of Iraq" or "Clegg's AV referendum", in both cases associating an unpopular politician with a cause.

    Doesn’t that give the next PM (assuming it is a Tory) to do a reset. “Boris’s Brexit didn’t work because Boris… we are going to fix it”

    The Tory membership would obviously vote against any Tory leadership contender who tried to soften Brexit and align more closely to the EU.

    If Boris goes it is the Tory membership who get the final say on who our next PM is
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,442
    Sinner Djokovic well worth watching
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 23,517
    edited July 5

    TimS said:

    FPT: Remain-inclined politicians should make the most of the next few weeks by talking about Boris Brexit, Brexit Boris, Boris Johnson's disastrous Brexit etc as often and repeatedly as possible. Aim to cause some collateral damage.

    It worked - very well, in both directions - with "Blair's illegal invasion of Iraq" or "Clegg's AV referendum", in both cases associating an unpopular politician with a cause.

    Doesn’t that give the next PM (assuming it is a Tory) to do a reset. “Boris’s Brexit didn’t work because Boris… we are going to fix it”

    It does.
    However. When you are going to a third new mechanic to have your banger fixed, there comes a point when the thought of the scrapheap hoves into view.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 15,373

    TimS said:

    FPT: Remain-inclined politicians should make the most of the next few weeks by talking about Boris Brexit, Brexit Boris, Boris Johnson's disastrous Brexit etc as often and repeatedly as possible. Aim to cause some collateral damage.

    It worked - very well, in both directions - with "Blair's illegal invasion of Iraq" or "Clegg's AV referendum", in both cases associating an unpopular politician with a cause.

    Doesn’t that give the next PM (assuming it is a Tory) to do a reset. “Boris’s Brexit didn’t work because Boris… we are going to fix it”

    Only for five minutes.

    Brexit is like a mouldering corpse inside the walls of 10 Rillington Place. Eventually the (Lulu Lytle?) wallpaper will have to come down and the full horror dealt with directly.

    Until then we have to persist with dissembling and odd, untraceable smells.

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 23,517
    edited July 5
    IshmaelZ said:

    Sinner Djokovic well worth watching

    He ain't that bad.
    Bit anti-vaxxy and pro-Putin.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 17,936
    HYUFD said:

    TimS said:

    FPT: Remain-inclined politicians should make the most of the next few weeks by talking about Boris Brexit, Brexit Boris, Boris Johnson's disastrous Brexit etc as often and repeatedly as possible. Aim to cause some collateral damage.

    It worked - very well, in both directions - with "Blair's illegal invasion of Iraq" or "Clegg's AV referendum", in both cases associating an unpopular politician with a cause.

    Given Starmer has just ruled out rejoining the EU and rejoining the SM then Boris, if he goes his likely successor as PM Ben Wallace and the leader of the Opposition all now back Brexit.

    So whether Boris stays or goes, we will still have Brexit and still be out of the single market unless the LDs win the next general election
    I live in hope. The Blue Wall looks very shaky.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 25,193
    HYUFD said:

    The Tory membership would obviously vote against any Tory leadership contender who tried to soften Brexit and align more closely to the EU.

    Via @yougov:
    54% of Britons say Brexit has gone badly since end of transition
    Includes 3 in 10 Leave voters (31%)
    A majority of Britons say that Brexit is not done (54%), including half Leave voters (49%)
    Highest proportion since Dec 2019 who say Gov handling Brexit badly (61%)
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 10,315
    Bank of England warns UK economic outlook has ‘deteriorated markedly’

    The exercise will include “deep simultaneous recession in the UK and global economies, real income shocks, large falls in asset prices and higher global interest rates”.

    https://www.ft.com/content/80be2f66-b8da-4a44-9e7d-cf0c0cc58cef
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 45,437
    Scott_xP said:

    Understand leadership contenders revving their engines, some hush hush meetings go on with rebel and pro Boris MPs alike
    https://twitter.com/hoffman_noa/status/1544308518337056770

    The hush hush meetings are about getting Joe Root in a safe seat, then challenging Boris.

    The problem isn't persuading Joe Root. The problem is the safe seat.....
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,442

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    8m
    Boris Johnson’s position is untenable. The dam’s burst now. There are only two outcomes. He resigns, or his party will remove him. And it will happen relatively quickly.

    Given his track record for predictions, I think we can say Johnson is safe until 2024.
    This once, Hodges is right.

    Boris is friendless. If the 22 vote were re-run now, Boris would lose.
    Yeah gone by year end fo sho via 22 not cabinet. Big role for Aaron.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 17,936
    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    TimS said:

    MISTY said:

    Have Peter Bone and HYUFD ever been seen in the same room together?

    President Xi..... its UK PM Boris Johnson on the line. He says that if you did have designs on Taiwan, now would be a good time for him, news wise....''
    You joke...

    Trip to Kyiv incoming.
    They had a phone call this morning
    during which we gave the Ukraine another £100m.

    Mind you that's cheaper than the last actual visit when we gave them £1bn...
    Johnson has no idea of values. He probably believes a litre of diesel to be something outrageously high, like £2!
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 831
    Shanghai Gov National Police database breached and 1 billion citizens records for sale....
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 15,373
    edited July 5

    Bank of England warns UK economic outlook has ‘deteriorated markedly’

    The exercise will include “deep simultaneous recession in the UK and global economies, real income shocks, large falls in asset prices and higher global interest rates”.

    https://www.ft.com/content/80be2f66-b8da-4a44-9e7d-cf0c0cc58cef

    This is BoE speak for “brace, brace”.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 26,182
    edited July 5

    TimS said:

    FPT: Remain-inclined politicians should make the most of the next few weeks by talking about Boris Brexit, Brexit Boris, Boris Johnson's disastrous Brexit etc as often and repeatedly as possible. Aim to cause some collateral damage.

    It worked - very well, in both directions - with "Blair's illegal invasion of Iraq" or "Clegg's AV referendum", in both cases associating an unpopular politician with a cause.

    Doesn’t that give the next PM (assuming it is a Tory) to do a reset. “Boris’s Brexit didn’t work because Boris… we are going to fix it”

    Only for five minutes.

    Brexit is like a mouldering corpse inside the walls of 10 Rillington Place. Eventually the (Lulu Lytle?) wallpaper will have to come down and the full horror dealt with directly.

    Until then we have to persist with dissembling and odd, untraceable smells.

    On a point of pedantry, it is in an alcove - albeit a wallpapered over one.

    But another Christie link seems particularly apposite today: his comment, "The more the merrier". As did the fact that the garden of No 10 played a part.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 102,905
    edited July 5
    Scott_xP said:

    HYUFD said:

    The Tory membership would obviously vote against any Tory leadership contender who tried to soften Brexit and align more closely to the EU.

    Via @yougov:
    54% of Britons say Brexit has gone badly since end of transition
    Includes 3 in 10 Leave voters (31%)
    A majority of Britons say that Brexit is not done (54%), including half Leave voters (49%)
    Highest proportion since Dec 2019 who say Gov handling Brexit badly (61%)
    Who cares what the public think until 2024/5? The public elected the Tories by a landslide in 2019 and it is therefore only the views of Tory MPs and Tory members that count in terms of who our PM is until the next general election.

    Though even on your figures the vast majority of Leave voters still back Brexit and think it has not gone badly and the vast majority of Tory members were Leavers
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 25,193
    "Best man for the job", still "doing his best"...

    So in summary Downing Street have variously claimed that Boris Johnson:

    - Wasn't aware of "any allegations" against Chris Pincher
    - Wasn't aware of "specific allegations"
    - Wasn't aware of "serious specific allegations"
    - Was aware of specific allegations, but forgot about them
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,442

    Bank of England warns UK economic outlook has ‘deteriorated markedly’

    The exercise will include “deep simultaneous recession in the UK and global economies, real income shocks, large falls in asset prices and higher global interest rates”.

    https://www.ft.com/content/80be2f66-b8da-4a44-9e7d-cf0c0cc58cef

    The exercise meaning that stuff is what they are wargaming or what will akshly happen?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 23,517
    edited July 5

    HYUFD said:

    TimS said:

    FPT: Remain-inclined politicians should make the most of the next few weeks by talking about Boris Brexit, Brexit Boris, Boris Johnson's disastrous Brexit etc as often and repeatedly as possible. Aim to cause some collateral damage.

    It worked - very well, in both directions - with "Blair's illegal invasion of Iraq" or "Clegg's AV referendum", in both cases associating an unpopular politician with a cause.

    Given Starmer has just ruled out rejoining the EU and rejoining the SM then Boris, if he goes his likely successor as PM Ben Wallace and the leader of the Opposition all now back Brexit.

    So whether Boris stays or goes, we will still have Brexit and still be out of the single market unless the LDs win the next general election
    Saying that it isn't a wise thing to put the UK through more division to join an organisation that probably doesn't want us anyway is not "backing Brexit" you dimwit

    It is called political expediency. Anyone with half a brain knows that Brexit was a morons charter and utterly pointless. Many of us think that putting us back through the same division and uncertainty is not sensible, but it does not in anyway mean that we "back Brexit" ffs!
    Yep.
    In the same way that accepting you have a terminal diagnosis doesn't necessarily mean one is Backing Cancer and are pro-death.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 9,720

    Bank of England warns UK economic outlook has ‘deteriorated markedly’

    The exercise will include “deep simultaneous recession in the UK and global economies, real income shocks, large falls in asset prices and higher global interest rates”.

    https://www.ft.com/content/80be2f66-b8da-4a44-9e7d-cf0c0cc58cef

    The first bit is a forecast, the second isn't (it's a stress test scenario).
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,524
    IshmaelZ said:

    Sinner Djokovic well worth watching

    Am I the only one that thinks Sinner looks like Jim Courier?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 45,437
    A Cabinet resignation now, and the floodgates open.

    Maybe after Starmer rips Boris's memory apart at PMQ's?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 25,193
    Also understand junior ministers getting very restless... though we've been here many times before..
    https://twitter.com/hoffman_noa/status/1544311105182486530
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 25,193

    A Cabinet resignation now, and the floodgates open.

    Maybe after Starmer rips Boris's memory apart at PMQ's?

    None of them have the balls. Not even Penny
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,442
    tlg86 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Sinner Djokovic well worth watching

    Am I the only one that thinks Sinner looks like Jim Courier?
    With a hint of Boris (other one)
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 31,292
    Five or six years ago, there were probably three rough groupings on here wrt Boris:

    *) The anti-Boris, anti-Conservative group. "He's a bore, a fool, he was a terrible mayor, Conservatives stink, etc"
    *) The pro-Boris group: "He won us Brexit! And he was a successful London Mayor! He doesn't stink like May!"
    *) The Boris is an entertaining fool but should ne nowhere near power group.

    I was firmly in the latter group.

    Move on all these years, and HYUFD appears to be the only occupant of the middle group; the rest of them have moved into the former group.

    I'm still in the middle group; my own views on Boris have not changed much at all. Everything that has been revealed about him in the last year was evident before he even stopped being MoL. Why is anyone surprised? He's not as bad as many like to make out, but by God, he isn't fit to be PM.

    But he never was.

    And I laugh at those who supported him because of Brexit and who are now the rats leaving the sinking ship. ;)
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594

    Bank of England warns UK economic outlook has ‘deteriorated markedly’

    The exercise will include “deep simultaneous recession in the UK and global economies, real income shocks, large falls in asset prices and higher global interest rates”.

    https://www.ft.com/content/80be2f66-b8da-4a44-9e7d-cf0c0cc58cef

    The first bit is a forecast, the second isn't (it's a stress test scenario).
    The odd thing about the economy is I still see job vacancy adverts about quite frequently...doesn't feel like a real recession right now...
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 25,193
    Texts exchanged with several Conservative MPs about the mood. It's bleak. But as one said, given backbenchers have already moved it's "all eyes on the Cabinet."
    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1544311852561309696
This discussion has been closed.