The Johnson Premiership – Are we seeing the end days? – politicalbetting.com

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The Johnson Premiership – Are we seeing the end days? – politicalbetting.com

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TimS

FPT: Remain-inclined politicians should make the most of the next few weeks by talking about Boris Brexit, Brexit Boris, Boris Johnson's disastrous Brexit etc as often and repeatedly as possible. Aim to cause some collateral damage.

It worked - very well, in both directions - with "Blair's illegal invasion of Iraq" or "Clegg's AV referendum", in both cases associating an unpopular politician with a cause.

rottenborough

(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges
·
8m
Boris Johnson’s position is untenable. The dam’s burst now. There are only two outcomes. He resigns, or his party will remove him. And it will happen relatively quickly.

rottenborough

It is always the cover up that gets them in the end.

rottenborough

Kevin Schofield
@KevinASchofield
·
12m
Hearing that "lots" of no confidence letters have gone in to Graham Brady today.

But under current Tory party rules, no vote can take place before next June.

TimS

rottenborough said:

(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges
·
8m
Boris Johnson’s position is untenable. The dam’s burst now. There are only two outcomes. He resigns, or his party will remove him. And it will happen relatively quickly.

Funny thing is I get the sense this story has done much less damage to the Tories in public opinion than partygate did. There seems to be less cut-through. But it's going to do for Boris.

The Daily Mail has now turned and in Tory land that's one of the most important things.

But have the donors spoken yet?

NickPalmer

Betfair offering 3.4 at the time of writing against BJ being leader at the Conference. If they're going to remove him, I'd think they'd want to do it before then so successor X gets a launchpad. So it may be value, more than the "this year" 2.14. If he lasts till October he'll last till January.

wooliedyed

Thers only one bet left. Does Boris beat May? 4 weeks 3 days. Yes if he resigns and serves during a leader contest. No if theres a coronation or he flounces. Surely Chamberlain can't hold on just 2 days ahead of him?

wooliedyed

NickPalmer said:

Betfair offering 3.4 at the time of writing against BJ being leader at the Conference. If they're going to remove him, I'd think they'd want to do it before then so successor X gets a launchpad. So it may be value, more than the "this year" 2.14. If he lasts till October he'll last till January.

Yes, agreed. Its now or its not in this cricket season

wooliedyed

TimS said:

rottenborough said:

(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges
·
8m
Boris Johnson’s position is untenable. The dam’s burst now. There are only two outcomes. He resigns, or his party will remove him. And it will happen relatively quickly.

Funny thing is I get the sense this story has done much less damage to the Tories in public opinion than partygate did. There seems to be less cut-through. But it's going to do for Boris.

The Daily Mail has now turned and in Tory land that's one of the most important things.

But have the donors spoken yet?

Partygate was letting us down
Pincher is letting his MPs down
Sad it takes b to facilitate the end a should have brought

Nigelb

This is not going well... Caroline Johnson - a Tory MP I never recall stepping a centimetre out of line - asks Ellis a deeply hostile question asking why Pincher was ever appointed to a new government job after the Foreign Office complaint
https://mobile.twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1544291292217282560

Scott_xP

Bone suggests Labour call a VoNC. Be careful what you wish for...

Nigelb

The pitiful sophistry on offer in the Commons is unlikely to help the PM.

Morris_Dancer

Starmer still favourite as next PM, at 7.

Malmesbury

rottenborough said:

(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges
·
8m
Boris Johnson’s position is untenable. The dam’s burst now. There are only two outcomes. He resigns, or his party will remove him. And it will happen relatively quickly.

The toast is toast. Part 257.

Scott_xP

you know I think one of the worst things for me, ultimately, is the fact that none of this is in any way surprising, and that if three years ago you'd offered me a window into today's shitshow I would have looked in and gone "yeah, I mean what else was anyone else expecting"
https://twitter.com/youngvulgarian/status/1544293146502336513

Nigelb

NickPalmer said:

Betfair offering 3.4 at the time of writing against BJ being leader at the Conference. If they're going to remove him, I'd think they'd want to do it before then so successor X gets a launchpad. So it may be value, more than the "this year" 2.14. If he lasts till October he'll last till January.

If he holds on that long, it's hard to see how they summon up the courage to dump him before the election, new opportunity to have a challenge notwithstanding.

Scott_xP

this would be interesting...

For three consecutive days, the minister on the broadcast round has said something that turned out to be untrue

Who is going to volunteer for tomorrow morning?
https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1544298195966107648

We’re getting to the point where it would be reasonable to ask if we should even have them on. Fwiw I would almost always say “yes”, but there’s a growing case to be made for the opposite.
https://twitter.com/skynewsniall/status/1544299310422138880

Nigelb

Fair to say that all of this is going down absolutely appallingly among Tory MPs.

A Government source says: "Backbenchers who went back to constituency surgeries at the weekend were being asked by voters how many boys they had touched up this week. The mood is not great."
https://mobile.twitter.com/Tony_Diver/status/1544289293404971008

TimS

Advice to Boris: the best way to rally the troops now would be to call a snap election. That'll bring everyone reluctantly into line.

Go on, do it. You know you want to.

Yours sincerely,
Southern Counties Lib Dem Association.

Leon

Hartlepool does feel like quite a long time ago

dixiedean

wooliedyed said:

TimS said:

rottenborough said:

(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges
·
8m
Boris Johnson’s position is untenable. The dam’s burst now. There are only two outcomes. He resigns, or his party will remove him. And it will happen relatively quickly.

Funny thing is I get the sense this story has done much less damage to the Tories in public opinion than partygate did. There seems to be less cut-through. But it's going to do for Boris.

The Daily Mail has now turned and in Tory land that's one of the most important things.

But have the donors spoken yet?

Partygate was letting us down
Pincher is letting his MPs down
Sad it takes b to facilitate the end a should have brought

I am sorry to say, but it may be the constant lying to journalists which does for this administration.
Have noticed a serious change of tone from them this week.
They are simply caveating the government line now. Even the tame ones.

RochdalePioneers

When they say that "lots" of letters are going into Mrs Brady, I have to ask how many need to go in during a very short period of time before the current '22 officers decide to unilaterally change the rules?

It seems very likely that a new exec will be elected who will do so. But what if the tsunami is great enough to force the outgoing one to do so?

Unless a cabinet minister resigns - and they're all amorally frit - its up to the non-stupid backbenchers and the '22. Or a senior civil servant goes over the top and then we get to watch Peter Bone saying "who elected them, we have a majority, we do what we want"

dixiedean

Leon said:

Hartlepool does feel like quite a long time ago

About 1953.

Gardenwalker

Have Peter Bone and HYUFD ever been seen in the same room together?

Malmesbury

wooliedyed said:

TimS said:

rottenborough said:

(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges
·
8m
Boris Johnson’s position is untenable. The dam’s burst now. There are only two outcomes. He resigns, or his party will remove him. And it will happen relatively quickly.

Funny thing is I get the sense this story has done much less damage to the Tories in public opinion than partygate did. There seems to be less cut-through. But it's going to do for Boris.

The Daily Mail has now turned and in Tory land that's one of the most important things.

But have the donors spoken yet?

Partygate was letting us down
Pincher is letting his MPs down
Sad it takes b to facilitate the end a should have brought

Pincher was appointed to a position where he was above them and had leverage over them. That would tend to concentrate the mind.

LostPassword

RochdalePioneers said:

When they say that "lots" of letters are going into Mrs Brady, I have to ask how many need to go in during a very short period of time before the current '22 officers decide to unilaterally change the rules?

It seems very likely that a new exec will be elected who will do so. But what if the tsunami is great enough to force the outgoing one to do so?

Unless a cabinet minister resigns - and they're all amorally frit - its up to the non-stupid backbenchers and the '22. Or a senior civil servant goes over the top and then we get to watch Peter Bone saying "who elected them, we have a majority, we do what we want"

If they receive letters from 50%+1 MPs then any confidence vote would be a formality, and hiding behind the rules to avoid one would seem to be difficult. Whether there's a lower threshold that prompts action earlier, I'm not sure.

Gardenwalker

TimS said:

Advice to Boris: the best way to rally the troops now would be to call a snap election. That'll bring everyone reluctantly into line.

Go on, do it. You know you want to.

Yours sincerely,
Southern Counties Lib Dem Association.

I’ll be up for Mogg.

HYUFD

TimS said:

FPT: Remain-inclined politicians should make the most of the next few weeks by talking about Boris Brexit, Brexit Boris, Boris Johnson's disastrous Brexit etc as often and repeatedly as possible. Aim to cause some collateral damage.

It worked - very well, in both directions - with "Blair's illegal invasion of Iraq" or "Clegg's AV referendum", in both cases associating an unpopular politician with a cause.

Given Starmer has just ruled out rejoining the EU and rejoining the SM then Boris, if he goes his likely successor as PM Ben Wallace and the leader of the Opposition all now back Brexit.

So whether Boris stays or goes, we will still have Brexit and still be out of the single market unless the LDs win the next general election

Northern_Al

Although I'm hopeful that Boris will be defenestrated shortly, I suspect it's much more likely that the gang of yes-people and sycophants who need to wield the dagger will yet again hesitate: "it's the summer recess soon - let's see how the land lies when everybody returns from their holidays". Hope I'm wrong.

bondegezou

I was under the impression that the Whips kept little black books, so if there were questions around an MP, the PM could go to the Whips and be quickly informed of, e.g., a prior complaint against them and when it happened. That way a PM doesn’t have to remember every detail themself. Did Johnson not ask his own Chief Whip about Pincher?

wooliedyed

bondegezou said:

I was under the impression that the Whips kept little black books, so if there were questions around an MP, the PM could go to the Whips and be quickly informed of, e.g., a prior complaint against them and when it happened. That way a PM doesn’t have to remember every detail themself. Did Johnson not ask his own Chief Whip about Pincher?

Yes and appointed him anywayi think is the answer. He doesnt care

Scott_xP

My bit on No 10’s Pincher lies unravelling fast, the bombshell Lord McDonald letter, and a cabinet of absolute gibbering invertebrates  https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jul/05/dominic-raab-boris-johnson-chris-pincher-scandal?CMP=share_btn_tw

Gardenwalker

Scott_xP said:

you know I think one of the worst things for me, ultimately, is the fact that none of this is in any way surprising, and that if three years ago you'd offered me a window into today's shitshow I would have looked in and gone "yeah, I mean what else was anyone else expecting"
https://twitter.com/youngvulgarian/status/1544293146502336513

Any vaguely sentient commentator knew the Boris project would collapse under the groaning weight of his own ineptitude and deceit in 2016.

More informed ones, who perhaps knew Boris or Tory politics more closely, surely understood this even in the 2000s.

boulay

LostPassword said:

RochdalePioneers said:

When they say that "lots" of letters are going into Mrs Brady, I have to ask how many need to go in during a very short period of time before the current '22 officers decide to unilaterally change the rules?

It seems very likely that a new exec will be elected who will do so. But what if the tsunami is great enough to force the outgoing one to do so?

Unless a cabinet minister resigns - and they're all amorally frit - its up to the non-stupid backbenchers and the '22. Or a senior civil servant goes over the top and then we get to watch Peter Bone saying "who elected them, we have a majority, we do what we want"

If they receive letters from 50%+1 MPs then any confidence vote would be a formality, and hiding behind the rules to avoid one would seem to be difficult. Whether there's a lower threshold that prompts action earlier, I'm not sure.

It would be hilarious if, on receiving 50%+1 letters it automatically triggered a defenestration if the theory that Boris had got his supporters to send in letters to ensure the VOC at a better time for him.

Hoist by own petard spectacularly.

HYUFD

Gardenwalker said:

TimS said:

Advice to Boris: the best way to rally the troops now would be to call a snap election. That'll bring everyone reluctantly into line.

Go on, do it. You know you want to.

Yours sincerely,
Southern Counties Lib Dem Association.

I’ll be up for Mogg.

Mogg will likely survive even if Hunt, Redwood, Raab, Brady and Baker probably won't

wooliedyed

Im going for a walk. If pb could arrange for some juice for me to return to that would be good

MISTY

Gardenwalker said:

Have Peter Bone and HYUFD ever been seen in the same room together?

President Xi..... its UK PM Boris Johnson on the line. He says that if you did have designs on Taiwan, now would be a good time for him, news wise....''

Scott_xP

Gardenwalker said:

Any vaguely sentient commentator knew the Boris project would collapse under the groaning weight of his own ineptitude and deceit in 2016.

More informed ones, who perhaps knew Boris or Tory politics more closely, surely understood this even in the 2000s.

Even this guy...

The weirdest aspect of the utterly predictable collapse of Boris Johnson as Prime Minister is that it we were all warned of exactly this by, er, Michael Gove in 2016. https://twitter.com/GrifterWatch22/status/1544274025396031488/video/1

bondegezou

wooliedyed said:

bondegezou said:

I was under the impression that the Whips kept little black books, so if there were questions around an MP, the PM could go to the Whips and be quickly informed of, e.g., a prior complaint against them and when it happened. That way a PM doesn’t have to remember every detail themself. Did Johnson not ask his own Chief Whip about Pincher?

Yes and appointed him anywayi think is the answer. He doesnt care

And one wonders whether Johnson in the last few days asked his Chief Whip for a quick refresher on Pincher. It would seem the obvious thing to do, to prevent against embarrassing memory lapses.

Nigelb

bondegezou said:

I was under the impression that the Whips kept little black books, so if there were questions around an MP, the PM could go to the Whips and be quickly informed of, e.g., a prior complaint against them and when it happened. That way a PM doesn’t have to remember every detail themself. Did Johnson not ask his own Chief Whip about Pincher?

We know from this morning's revelations that Johnson was briefed directly.

ThomasNashe

rottenborough said:

(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges
·
8m
Boris Johnson’s position is untenable. The dam’s burst now. There are only two outcomes. He resigns, or his party will remove him. And it will happen relatively quickly.

Given his track record for predictions, I think we can say Johnson is safe until 2024.

TimS

HYUFD said:

TimS said:

FPT: Remain-inclined politicians should make the most of the next few weeks by talking about Boris Brexit, Brexit Boris, Boris Johnson's disastrous Brexit etc as often and repeatedly as possible. Aim to cause some collateral damage.

It worked - very well, in both directions - with "Blair's illegal invasion of Iraq" or "Clegg's AV referendum", in both cases associating an unpopular politician with a cause.

Given Starmer has just ruled out rejoining the EU and rejoining the SM then Boris, if he goes his likely successor as PM Ben Wallace and the leader of the Opposition all now back Brexit.

So whether Boris stays or goes, we will still have Brexit and still be out of the single market unless the LDs win the next general election

Long game, mate. It took years for the obvious blunder of Iraq to get firmly rooted in received wisdom.

Nigelb

HYUFD said:

TimS said:

FPT: Remain-inclined politicians should make the most of the next few weeks by talking about Boris Brexit, Brexit Boris, Boris Johnson's disastrous Brexit etc as often and repeatedly as possible. Aim to cause some collateral damage.

It worked - very well, in both directions - with "Blair's illegal invasion of Iraq" or "Clegg's AV referendum", in both cases associating an unpopular politician with a cause.

Given Starmer has just ruled out rejoining the EU and rejoining the SM then Boris, if he goes his likely successor as PM Ben Wallace and the leader of the Opposition all now back Brexit.

So whether Boris stays or goes, we will still have Brexit and still be out of the single market unless the LDs win the next general election

No reason to hang on to him, then.

Gardenwalker

bondegezou said:

wooliedyed said:

bondegezou said:

I was under the impression that the Whips kept little black books, so if there were questions around an MP, the PM could go to the Whips and be quickly informed of, e.g., a prior complaint against them and when it happened. That way a PM doesn’t have to remember every detail themself. Did Johnson not ask his own Chief Whip about Pincher?

Yes and appointed him anywayi think is the answer. He doesnt care

And one wonders whether Johnson in the last few days asked his Chief Whip for a quick refresher on Pincher. It would seem the obvious thing to do, to prevent against embarrassing memory lapses.

Boris’s claim that he “forgot” is not even worth examining. It’s merely a turd that he’s shaken from his trouser leg.

DecrepiterJohnL

Speaking of the end of days...

Potentially deadly superbug found in British supermarket pork
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jul/05/potentially-deadly-superbug-found-in-british-supermarket-pork

bondegezou

Nigelb said:

bondegezou said:

I was under the impression that the Whips kept little black books, so if there were questions around an MP, the PM could go to the Whips and be quickly informed of, e.g., a prior complaint against them and when it happened. That way a PM doesn’t have to remember every detail themself. Did Johnson not ask his own Chief Whip about Pincher?

We know from this morning's revelations that Johnson was briefed directly.

Indeed. But we’ve been told the PM is a busy man and can’t be expected to remember things. What I find… odd… is that the PM didn’t in these last few days draw on those around him to prompt his failing memory.

TimS

MISTY said:

Gardenwalker said:

Have Peter Bone and HYUFD ever been seen in the same room together?

President Xi..... its UK PM Boris Johnson on the line. He says that if you did have designs on Taiwan, now would be a good time for him, news wise....''

You joke...

Trip to Kyiv incoming.

RochdalePioneers

HYUFD said:

TimS said:

FPT: Remain-inclined politicians should make the most of the next few weeks by talking about Boris Brexit, Brexit Boris, Boris Johnson's disastrous Brexit etc as often and repeatedly as possible. Aim to cause some collateral damage.

It worked - very well, in both directions - with "Blair's illegal invasion of Iraq" or "Clegg's AV referendum", in both cases associating an unpopular politician with a cause.

Given Starmer has just ruled out rejoining the EU and rejoining the SM then Boris, if he goes his likely successor as PM Ben Wallace and the leader of the Opposition all now back Brexit.

So whether Boris stays or goes, we will still have Brexit and still be out of the single market unless the LDs win the next general election

I assume that you personally still support him? And therefore the egregious lies on display?

At which point do you grow morality and say "enough"?

Nigelb

Several stories like this is recent days.
More than worrying.

https://mobile.twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1544292760169185281
On July 3, a diver from the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant was reported to die after torture by Russian occupiers. This comes as Ukrainian officials warn about a planned Russian provocation at the occupied plant that would create a major nuclear hazard.

Scott_xP

TimS said:

MISTY said:

Gardenwalker said:

Have Peter Bone and HYUFD ever been seen in the same room together?

President Xi..... its UK PM Boris Johnson on the line. He says that if you did have designs on Taiwan, now would be a good time for him, news wise....''

You joke...

Trip to Kyiv incoming.

They had a phone call this morning

Stuartinromford

Scott_xP said:

Gardenwalker said:

Any vaguely sentient commentator knew the Boris project would collapse under the groaning weight of his own ineptitude and deceit in 2016.

More informed ones, who perhaps knew Boris or Tory politics more closely, surely understood this even in the 2000s.

Even this guy...

The weirdest aspect of the utterly predictable collapse of Boris Johnson as Prime Minister is that it we were all warned of exactly this by, er, Michael Gove in 2016. https://twitter.com/GrifterWatch22/status/1544274025396031488/video/1

Scott_xP said:

Gardenwalker said:

Any vaguely sentient commentator knew the Boris project would collapse under the groaning weight of his own ineptitude and deceit in 2016.

More informed ones, who perhaps knew Boris or Tory politics more closely, surely understood this even in the 2000s.

Even this guy...

The weirdest aspect of the utterly predictable collapse of Boris Johnson as Prime Minister is that it we were all warned of exactly this by, er, Michael Gove in 2016. https://twitter.com/GrifterWatch22/status/1544274025396031488/video/1

Or John Major, who is alleged to have tried to stop BoJo becoming a Conservative candidate back in the 1990's;

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/john-major-attacks-boris-johnson-again-

Smart guy.

HYUFD

TimS said:

HYUFD said:

TimS said:

FPT: Remain-inclined politicians should make the most of the next few weeks by talking about Boris Brexit, Brexit Boris, Boris Johnson's disastrous Brexit etc as often and repeatedly as possible. Aim to cause some collateral damage.

It worked - very well, in both directions - with "Blair's illegal invasion of Iraq" or "Clegg's AV referendum", in both cases associating an unpopular politician with a cause.

Given Starmer has just ruled out rejoining the EU and rejoining the SM then Boris, if he goes his likely successor as PM Ben Wallace and the leader of the Opposition all now back Brexit.

So whether Boris stays or goes, we will still have Brexit and still be out of the single market unless the LDs win the next general election

Long game, mate. It took years for the obvious blunder of Iraq to get firmly rooted in received wisdom.

Brown withdrew UK troops from Iraq by the end of 2009.

There is also far more ideological support for Brexit still now, especially in the redwall, Essex, Kent, Cornwall etc than there ever was for Iraq then

Leon

Nigelb said:

Several stories like this is recent days.
More than worrying.

https://mobile.twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1544292760169185281
On July 3, a diver from the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant was reported to die after torture by Russian occupiers. This comes as Ukrainian officials warn about a planned Russian provocation at the occupied plant that would create a major nuclear hazard.

Russia is winning. Why do they need to kick off nuclear apocalypse

TimS

Stuartinromford said:

Scott_xP said:

Gardenwalker said:

Any vaguely sentient commentator knew the Boris project would collapse under the groaning weight of his own ineptitude and deceit in 2016.

More informed ones, who perhaps knew Boris or Tory politics more closely, surely understood this even in the 2000s.

Even this guy...

The weirdest aspect of the utterly predictable collapse of Boris Johnson as Prime Minister is that it we were all warned of exactly this by, er, Michael Gove in 2016. https://twitter.com/GrifterWatch22/status/1544274025396031488/video/1

Scott_xP said:

Gardenwalker said:

Any vaguely sentient commentator knew the Boris project would collapse under the groaning weight of his own ineptitude and deceit in 2016.

More informed ones, who perhaps knew Boris or Tory politics more closely, surely understood this even in the 2000s.

Even this guy...

The weirdest aspect of the utterly predictable collapse of Boris Johnson as Prime Minister is that it we were all warned of exactly this by, er, Michael Gove in 2016. https://twitter.com/GrifterWatch22/status/1544274025396031488/video/1

Or John Major, who is alleged to have tried to stop BoJo becoming a Conservative candidate back in the 1990's;

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/john-major-attacks-boris-johnson-again-

Smart guy.

This quote: "Ah, Andrew, thanks for coming: what the fuck do you mean by putting Boris Johnson on the candidates’ list?" deserves to sit in the pantheon of prescient F word themed quotes alongside the Russian Warship one.

algarkirk

For all the talk and hype the current betting is odds against Boris leaving in 2022. I actually think this is right. Even the cool headed Mr Smithson is invoking the end of days and has spotted four horsemen, BUT also draws our attention sotto voce to the fact that informed opinion is putting its money on Boris seeing this one out.

I have no view - except that Rishi missed his chance by not resigning early this year on principle - and that his chance won't return. And that a new appointment of PM must be from outside this body of tainted, craven, unprincipled and spineless government ministers.

DecrepiterJohnL

Joe Root being cut for SPotY but still 50/1 with 888 and Paddy Power.

Remember we have the Commonwealth Games, Rugby Ask-Nadine World Cup and Women's Euro football all hosted in Britain this year and then the World Cup.

DecrepiterJohnL

algarkirk said:

For all the talk and hype the current betting is odds against Boris leaving in 2022. I actually think this is right. Even the cool headed Mr Smithson is invoking the end of days and has spotted four horsemen, BUT also draws our attention sotto voce to the fact that informed opinion is putting its money on Boris seeing this one out.

I have no view - except that Rishi missed his chance by not resigning early this year on principle - and that his chance won't return. And that a new appointment of PM must be from outside this body of tainted, craven, unprincipled and spineless government ministers.

Why must it? Remember the electorate will be MPs and Tory activists.

bondegezou

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Speaking of the end of days...

Potentially deadly superbug found in British supermarket pork
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jul/05/potentially-deadly-superbug-found-in-british-supermarket-pork

Don’t worry: Johnson committed to building a world-beating UK Health Security Agency to protect us from such risks, and I’m sure he meant it, and the extra funding will be flowing very soon, any day now…

ThomasNashe

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Joe Root being cut for SPotY but still 50/1 with 888 and Paddy Power.

Remember we have the Commonwealth Games, Rugby Ask-Nadine World Cup and Women's Euro football all hosted in Britain this year and then the World Cup.

+ some competition from his batting partner, YJB?

Scott_xP

Odds of Boris Johnson being replaced this year rise to 47% (+10pts today).

https://smrkts.co/3uZC0Ba https://twitter.com/SmarketsPol/status/1544305366288285698/photo/1

Stocky

NickPalmer said:

Betfair offering 3.4 at the time of writing against BJ being leader at the Conference. If they're going to remove him, I'd think they'd want to do it before then so successor X gets a launchpad. So it may be value, more than the "this year" 2.14. If he lasts till October he'll last till January.

Yes, I agree. I've been looking at same thing as you.

Anabobazina

ThomasNashe said:

rottenborough said:

(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges
·
8m
Boris Johnson’s position is untenable. The dam’s burst now. There are only two outcomes. He resigns, or his party will remove him. And it will happen relatively quickly.

Given his track record for predictions, I think we can say Johnson is safe until 2024.

Boris is going...

NOWHERE...

...unless the PCP can find a spine and a brain cell between them – and I wouldn't bet on them unearthing either.

IshmaelZ

algarkirk said:

For all the talk and hype the current betting is odds against Boris leaving in 2022. I actually think this is right. Even the cool headed Mr Smithson is invoking the end of days and has spotted four horsemen, BUT also draws our attention sotto voce to the fact that informed opinion is putting its money on Boris seeing this one out.

I have no view - except that Rishi missed his chance by not resigning early this year on principle - and that his chance won't return. And that a new appointment of PM must be from outside this body of tainted, craven, unprincipled and spineless government ministers.

Let's not pay too much attention to Ther Markets shall we? Informed opinion is us and the markets are thin enough to be moved by a friendly Russian punting a few roubles to help out a friend

Carnyx

Gardenwalker said:

Scott_xP said:

you know I think one of the worst things for me, ultimately, is the fact that none of this is in any way surprising, and that if three years ago you'd offered me a window into today's shitshow I would have looked in and gone "yeah, I mean what else was anyone else expecting"
https://twitter.com/youngvulgarian/status/1544293146502336513

Any vaguely sentient commentator knew the Boris project would collapse under the groaning weight of his own ineptitude and deceit in 2016.

More informed ones, who perhaps knew Boris or Tory politics more closely, surely understood this even in the 2000s.

Even Dall-E knew? Oh, my.

eek

Scott_xP said:

TimS said:

MISTY said:

Gardenwalker said:

Have Peter Bone and HYUFD ever been seen in the same room together?

President Xi..... its UK PM Boris Johnson on the line. He says that if you did have designs on Taiwan, now would be a good time for him, news wise....''

You joke...

Trip to Kyiv incoming.

They had a phone call this morning

during which we gave the Ukraine another £100m.

Mind you that's cheaper than the last actual visit when we gave them £1bn...

StillWaters

TimS said:

FPT: Remain-inclined politicians should make the most of the next few weeks by talking about Boris Brexit, Brexit Boris, Boris Johnson's disastrous Brexit etc as often and repeatedly as possible. Aim to cause some collateral damage.

It worked - very well, in both directions - with "Blair's illegal invasion of Iraq" or "Clegg's AV referendum", in both cases associating an unpopular politician with a cause.

Doesn’t that give the next PM (assuming it is a Tory) to do a reset. “Boris’s Brexit didn’t work because Boris… we are going to fix it”

MarqueeMark

ThomasNashe said:

rottenborough said:

(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges
·
8m
Boris Johnson’s position is untenable. The dam’s burst now. There are only two outcomes. He resigns, or his party will remove him. And it will happen relatively quickly.

Given his track record for predictions, I think we can say Johnson is safe until 2024.

This once, Hodges is right.

Boris is friendless. If the 22 vote were re-run now, Boris would lose.

Nigel_Foremain

HYUFD said:

TimS said:

FPT: Remain-inclined politicians should make the most of the next few weeks by talking about Boris Brexit, Brexit Boris, Boris Johnson's disastrous Brexit etc as often and repeatedly as possible. Aim to cause some collateral damage.

It worked - very well, in both directions - with "Blair's illegal invasion of Iraq" or "Clegg's AV referendum", in both cases associating an unpopular politician with a cause.

Given Starmer has just ruled out rejoining the EU and rejoining the SM then Boris, if he goes his likely successor as PM Ben Wallace and the leader of the Opposition all now back Brexit.

So whether Boris stays or goes, we will still have Brexit and still be out of the single market unless the LDs win the next general election

Saying that it isn't a wise thing to put the UK through more division to join an organisation that probably doesn't want us anyway is not "backing Brexit" you dimwit

It is called political expediency. Anyone with half a brain knows that Brexit was a morons charter and utterly pointless. Many of us think that putting us back through the same division and uncertainty is not sensible, but it does not in anyway mean that we "back Brexit" ffs!

MikeSmithson

I've just replaced the betting chart in the header.

Scott_xP

Time for someone to FOI No 10 for all notes, papers, emails, text messages by text, WhatsApp, and other messaging service, records held in any form relating to Chris Pincher from the last seven days.
https://twitter.com/johnmcternan/status/1544307748837462022

Carnyx

Northern_Al said:

Although I'm hopeful that Boris will be defenestrated shortly, I suspect it's much more likely that the gang of yes-people and sycophants who need to wield the dagger will yet again hesitate: "it's the summer recess soon - let's see how the land lies when everybody returns from their holidays". Hope I'm wrong.

I don't. It's great advertising for the opposition seeing the Tories try to outdo the Kola Superdeep Borehole.

Scott_xP

Understand leadership contenders revving their engines, some hush hush meetings go on with rebel and pro Boris MPs alike
https://twitter.com/hoffman_noa/status/1544308518337056770

dixiedean

£150 received. Kerching!
Cheers Rishi.
Now. About the PM.

HYUFD

StillWaters said:

TimS said:

FPT: Remain-inclined politicians should make the most of the next few weeks by talking about Boris Brexit, Brexit Boris, Boris Johnson's disastrous Brexit etc as often and repeatedly as possible. Aim to cause some collateral damage.

It worked - very well, in both directions - with "Blair's illegal invasion of Iraq" or "Clegg's AV referendum", in both cases associating an unpopular politician with a cause.

Doesn’t that give the next PM (assuming it is a Tory) to do a reset. “Boris’s Brexit didn’t work because Boris… we are going to fix it”

The Tory membership would obviously vote against any Tory leadership contender who tried to soften Brexit and align more closely to the EU.

If Boris goes it is the Tory membership who get the final say on who our next PM is

IshmaelZ

Sinner Djokovic well worth watching

dixiedean

StillWaters said:

TimS said:

FPT: Remain-inclined politicians should make the most of the next few weeks by talking about Boris Brexit, Brexit Boris, Boris Johnson's disastrous Brexit etc as often and repeatedly as possible. Aim to cause some collateral damage.

It worked - very well, in both directions - with "Blair's illegal invasion of Iraq" or "Clegg's AV referendum", in both cases associating an unpopular politician with a cause.

Doesn’t that give the next PM (assuming it is a Tory) to do a reset. “Boris’s Brexit didn’t work because Boris… we are going to fix it”

It does.
However. When you are going to a third new mechanic to have your banger fixed, there comes a point when the thought of the scrapheap hoves into view.

Gardenwalker

StillWaters said:

TimS said:

FPT: Remain-inclined politicians should make the most of the next few weeks by talking about Boris Brexit, Brexit Boris, Boris Johnson's disastrous Brexit etc as often and repeatedly as possible. Aim to cause some collateral damage.

It worked - very well, in both directions - with "Blair's illegal invasion of Iraq" or "Clegg's AV referendum", in both cases associating an unpopular politician with a cause.

Doesn’t that give the next PM (assuming it is a Tory) to do a reset. “Boris’s Brexit didn’t work because Boris… we are going to fix it”

Only for five minutes.

Brexit is like a mouldering corpse inside the walls of 10 Rillington Place. Eventually the (Lulu Lytle?) wallpaper will have to come down and the full horror dealt with directly.

Until then we have to persist with dissembling and odd, untraceable smells.

dixiedean

IshmaelZ said:

Sinner Djokovic well worth watching

He ain't that bad.
Bit anti-vaxxy and pro-Putin.

Mexicanpete

HYUFD said:

TimS said:

FPT: Remain-inclined politicians should make the most of the next few weeks by talking about Boris Brexit, Brexit Boris, Boris Johnson's disastrous Brexit etc as often and repeatedly as possible. Aim to cause some collateral damage.

It worked - very well, in both directions - with "Blair's illegal invasion of Iraq" or "Clegg's AV referendum", in both cases associating an unpopular politician with a cause.

Given Starmer has just ruled out rejoining the EU and rejoining the SM then Boris, if he goes his likely successor as PM Ben Wallace and the leader of the Opposition all now back Brexit.

So whether Boris stays or goes, we will still have Brexit and still be out of the single market unless the LDs win the next general election

I live in hope. The Blue Wall looks very shaky.

Scott_xP

HYUFD said:

The Tory membership would obviously vote against any Tory leadership contender who tried to soften Brexit and align more closely to the EU.

Via @yougov:
54% of Britons say Brexit has gone badly since end of transition
Includes 3 in 10 Leave voters (31%)
A majority of Britons say that Brexit is not done (54%), including half Leave voters (49%)
Highest proportion since Dec 2019 who say Gov handling Brexit badly (61%)

StuartDickson

Bank of England warns UK economic outlook has ‘deteriorated markedly’

The exercise will include “deep simultaneous recession in the UK and global economies, real income shocks, large falls in asset prices and higher global interest rates”.

https://www.ft.com/content/80be2f66-b8da-4a44-9e7d-cf0c0cc58cef

MarqueeMark

Scott_xP said:

Understand leadership contenders revving their engines, some hush hush meetings go on with rebel and pro Boris MPs alike
https://twitter.com/hoffman_noa/status/1544308518337056770

The hush hush meetings are about getting Joe Root in a safe seat, then challenging Boris.

The problem isn't persuading Joe Root. The problem is the safe seat.....

IshmaelZ

MarqueeMark said:

ThomasNashe said:

rottenborough said:

(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges
·
8m
Boris Johnson’s position is untenable. The dam’s burst now. There are only two outcomes. He resigns, or his party will remove him. And it will happen relatively quickly.

Given his track record for predictions, I think we can say Johnson is safe until 2024.

This once, Hodges is right.

Boris is friendless. If the 22 vote were re-run now, Boris would lose.

Yeah gone by year end fo sho via 22 not cabinet. Big role for Aaron.

Mexicanpete

eek said:

Scott_xP said:

TimS said:

MISTY said:

Gardenwalker said:

Have Peter Bone and HYUFD ever been seen in the same room together?

President Xi..... its UK PM Boris Johnson on the line. He says that if you did have designs on Taiwan, now would be a good time for him, news wise....''

You joke...

Trip to Kyiv incoming.

They had a phone call this morning

during which we gave the Ukraine another £100m.

Mind you that's cheaper than the last actual visit when we gave them £1bn...

Johnson has no idea of values. He probably believes a litre of diesel to be something outrageously high, like £2!

MightyAlex

Shanghai Gov National Police database breached and 1 billion citizens records for sale....

Gardenwalker

StuartDickson said:

Bank of England warns UK economic outlook has ‘deteriorated markedly’

The exercise will include “deep simultaneous recession in the UK and global economies, real income shocks, large falls in asset prices and higher global interest rates”.

https://www.ft.com/content/80be2f66-b8da-4a44-9e7d-cf0c0cc58cef

This is BoE speak for “brace, brace”.

Carnyx

Gardenwalker said:

StillWaters said:

TimS said:

FPT: Remain-inclined politicians should make the most of the next few weeks by talking about Boris Brexit, Brexit Boris, Boris Johnson's disastrous Brexit etc as often and repeatedly as possible. Aim to cause some collateral damage.

It worked - very well, in both directions - with "Blair's illegal invasion of Iraq" or "Clegg's AV referendum", in both cases associating an unpopular politician with a cause.

Doesn’t that give the next PM (assuming it is a Tory) to do a reset. “Boris’s Brexit didn’t work because Boris… we are going to fix it”

Only for five minutes.

Brexit is like a mouldering corpse inside the walls of 10 Rillington Place. Eventually the (Lulu Lytle?) wallpaper will have to come down and the full horror dealt with directly.

Until then we have to persist with dissembling and odd, untraceable smells.

On a point of pedantry, it is in an alcove - albeit a wallpapered over one.

But another Christie link seems particularly apposite today: his comment, "The more the merrier". As did the fact that the garden of No 10 played a part.

HYUFD

Scott_xP said:

HYUFD said:

The Tory membership would obviously vote against any Tory leadership contender who tried to soften Brexit and align more closely to the EU.

Via @yougov:
54% of Britons say Brexit has gone badly since end of transition
Includes 3 in 10 Leave voters (31%)
A majority of Britons say that Brexit is not done (54%), including half Leave voters (49%)
Highest proportion since Dec 2019 who say Gov handling Brexit badly (61%)

Who cares what the public think until 2024/5? The public elected the Tories by a landslide in 2019 and it is therefore only the views of Tory MPs and Tory members that count in terms of who our PM is until the next general election.

Though even on your figures the vast majority of Leave voters still back Brexit and think it has not gone badly and the vast majority of Tory members were Leavers

Scott_xP

"Best man for the job", still "doing his best"...

So in summary Downing Street have variously claimed that Boris Johnson:

- Wasn't aware of "any allegations" against Chris Pincher
- Wasn't aware of "specific allegations"
- Wasn't aware of "serious specific allegations"
- Was aware of specific allegations, but forgot about them

IshmaelZ

StuartDickson said:

Bank of England warns UK economic outlook has ‘deteriorated markedly’

The exercise will include “deep simultaneous recession in the UK and global economies, real income shocks, large falls in asset prices and higher global interest rates”.

https://www.ft.com/content/80be2f66-b8da-4a44-9e7d-cf0c0cc58cef

The exercise meaning that stuff is what they are wargaming or what will akshly happen?

dixiedean

Nigel_Foremain said:

HYUFD said:

TimS said:

FPT: Remain-inclined politicians should make the most of the next few weeks by talking about Boris Brexit, Brexit Boris, Boris Johnson's disastrous Brexit etc as often and repeatedly as possible. Aim to cause some collateral damage.

It worked - very well, in both directions - with "Blair's illegal invasion of Iraq" or "Clegg's AV referendum", in both cases associating an unpopular politician with a cause.

Given Starmer has just ruled out rejoining the EU and rejoining the SM then Boris, if he goes his likely successor as PM Ben Wallace and the leader of the Opposition all now back Brexit.

So whether Boris stays or goes, we will still have Brexit and still be out of the single market unless the LDs win the next general election

Saying that it isn't a wise thing to put the UK through more division to join an organisation that probably doesn't want us anyway is not "backing Brexit" you dimwit

It is called political expediency. Anyone with half a brain knows that Brexit was a morons charter and utterly pointless. Many of us think that putting us back through the same division and uncertainty is not sensible, but it does not in anyway mean that we "back Brexit" ffs!

Yep.
In the same way that accepting you have a terminal diagnosis doesn't necessarily mean one is Backing Cancer and are pro-death.

OnlyLivingBoy

StuartDickson said:

Bank of England warns UK economic outlook has ‘deteriorated markedly’

The exercise will include “deep simultaneous recession in the UK and global economies, real income shocks, large falls in asset prices and higher global interest rates”.

https://www.ft.com/content/80be2f66-b8da-4a44-9e7d-cf0c0cc58cef

The first bit is a forecast, the second isn't (it's a stress test scenario).

tlg86

IshmaelZ said:

Sinner Djokovic well worth watching

Am I the only one that thinks Sinner looks like Jim Courier?

MarqueeMark

A Cabinet resignation now, and the floodgates open.

Maybe after Starmer rips Boris's memory apart at PMQ's?

Scott_xP

Also understand junior ministers getting very restless... though we've been here many times before..
https://twitter.com/hoffman_noa/status/1544311105182486530

Scott_xP

MarqueeMark said:

A Cabinet resignation now, and the floodgates open.

Maybe after Starmer rips Boris's memory apart at PMQ's?

None of them have the balls. Not even Penny

IshmaelZ

tlg86 said:

IshmaelZ said:

Sinner Djokovic well worth watching

Am I the only one that thinks Sinner looks like Jim Courier?

With a hint of Boris (other one)

JosiasJessop

Five or six years ago, there were probably three rough groupings on here wrt Boris:

*) The anti-Boris, anti-Conservative group. "He's a bore, a fool, he was a terrible mayor, Conservatives stink, etc"
*) The pro-Boris group: "He won us Brexit! And he was a successful London Mayor! He doesn't stink like May!"
*) The Boris is an entertaining fool but should ne nowhere near power group.

I was firmly in the latter group.

Move on all these years, and HYUFD appears to be the only occupant of the middle group; the rest of them have moved into the former group.

I'm still in the middle group; my own views on Boris have not changed much at all. Everything that has been revealed about him in the last year was evident before he even stopped being MoL. Why is anyone surprised? He's not as bad as many like to make out, but by God, he isn't fit to be PM.

But he never was.

And I laugh at those who supported him because of Brexit and who are now the rats leaving the sinking ship.

MISTY

OnlyLivingBoy said:

StuartDickson said:

Bank of England warns UK economic outlook has ‘deteriorated markedly’

The exercise will include “deep simultaneous recession in the UK and global economies, real income shocks, large falls in asset prices and higher global interest rates”.

https://www.ft.com/content/80be2f66-b8da-4a44-9e7d-cf0c0cc58cef

The first bit is a forecast, the second isn't (it's a stress test scenario).

The odd thing about the economy is I still see job vacancy adverts about quite frequently...doesn't feel like a real recession right now...

Scott_xP

Texts exchanged with several Conservative MPs about the mood. It's bleak. But as one said, given backbenchers have already moved it's "all eyes on the Cabinet."
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1544311852561309696