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The Tories look set to lose both June 23rd by-elections – politicalbetting.com

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  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,940
    edited June 2022

    kle4 said:

    EPG said:

    I have no idea what drives Tories to vote LD

    Instinctual aversion to voting Labour meaning no other alternative, NIMBYism, and a dash of conservative liberalism.
    Knowing that Socialism was tried and failed, so only thicko’s want to try again, and utter despair at Boris unConservative car crash of a government. Barely a week goes by without Boris government doing some Populist that’s utterly unConservative. He’s not come to praise Conservatism, but to bury it.
    "Knowing that Socialism was tried and failed, so only thicko’s want to try again"

    What on earth are you talking about?
    image

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1xJoWzPZGjY
    That's all very well.
    Labour under Starmer may be many things.
    But it ain't Socialism. Or that. Lib Dem fail there.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,625
    Farooq said:

    In answer to your question, the last time the Tories lost two by elections on the same day was the 7th of November 1991 when the Tories lost Langbaurgh and Kincardine & Deeside to Labour and the Lib Dems respectively.

    The successor seat to K&D is West Aberdeenshire & Kincadine. In 1997, three candidates were called Smith, Kynoch, and Khan, which is quite a Laboury sounding lineup.

    The Lib Dems held it with Robert Smith, until the Disintegration of the Lib Dem vote in 2015. It's now held by Bowie, but I doubt things will be Hunky Dory for him at the next election with his majority being just 843
    With that capitalisation it makes it seem as significant an event as the Dissolution of the Monastaries.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,940
    kyf_100 said:

    Farooq said:

    dixiedean said:

    First story on World Tonight.
    Am I the only one who doesn't give a monkey's about Depp v Heard?

    I literally have no idea who alleged what about whom. I know that Depp is an actor, I don't know who Herd is. I have the oddest feeling even that scant information is more than I need to know but I'm happy to take advice on why I should care if I'm wrong.
    Both are actors. Depp is the only good one.

    Ultimately it's a story about who abused who, and whether or not a woman can be an abuser (Hint, yes, anyone can). Amber Heard claimed Depp abused her, and it almost finished off his career. She effectively tried to have him cancelled.

    Now it's come out that, while neither of them were exactly perfect, she was the abusive one (cutting his finger off, defecating in his bed etc). Also a flagrant liar, claiming she donated millions from their divorce settlement to charity when she did not.

    A lot of men (and women) who have been in relationships with a manipulative partner who has been believed over them will be nodding and smiling this evening.
    OTOH.
    And I haven't been following it.
    It's possible neither is.a nice piece of work.
  • Options
    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,064
    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    I kind of admire their persistence, but their alternative suggestions are pretty cumbersome to say the least

    France's language watchdog has told government officials to use French gaming terms instead of English ones.

    The Académie Française says "jeu video de competition" should replace "e-sports", and "streamer" should become "joueur-animateur en direct".


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-61647192

    Yep, all those French kids will be saying “jeu video de competition” rather than “e-sports”


    It’s a bit like a posh great great grandmother trying to get you to say “looking glass” rather than “mirror”, except there isn’t even a poshness value, plus the whole thing is even more embarrassing

    Any French teen will simply CRINGE

    I brought my sons up from the beginning to say toilet when they meant lavatory because of the pain I knew it would inflict on my father.
    My parents say supper and I say dinner partly just to wind them up (but mainly because supper just sounds fucking ridiculous).
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,202
    dixiedean said:

    kle4 said:

    EPG said:

    I have no idea what drives Tories to vote LD

    Instinctual aversion to voting Labour meaning no other alternative, NIMBYism, and a dash of conservative liberalism.
    Knowing that Socialism was tried and failed, so only thicko’s want to try again, and utter despair at Boris unConservative car crash of a government. Barely a week goes by without Boris government doing some Populist that’s utterly unConservative. He’s not come to praise Conservatism, but to bury it.
    "Knowing that Socialism was tried and failed, so only thicko’s want to try again"

    What on earth are you talking about?
    image

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1xJoWzPZGjY
    That's all very well.
    Labour under Starmer may be many things.
    But it ain't Socialism. Or that. Lib Dem fail there.
    "Those LibDems you sold me. They won't mate. They walk around all day, Tweeting and not mating. You sold me... queer LibDems. I want my money back!"
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,580

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    I kind of admire their persistence, but their alternative suggestions are pretty cumbersome to say the least

    France's language watchdog has told government officials to use French gaming terms instead of English ones.

    The Académie Française says "jeu video de competition" should replace "e-sports", and "streamer" should become "joueur-animateur en direct".


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-61647192

    Yep, all those French kids will be saying “jeu video de competition” rather than “e-sports”


    It’s a bit like a posh great great grandmother trying to get you to say “looking glass” rather than “mirror”, except there isn’t even a poshness value, plus the whole thing is even more embarrassing

    Any French teen will simply CRINGE

    I brought my sons up from the beginning to say toilet when they meant lavatory because of the pain I knew it would inflict on my father.
    My parents say supper and I say dinner partly just to wind them up (but mainly because supper just sounds fucking ridiculous).
    And you all eat it at teatime...
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    dixiedean said:

    kle4 said:

    EPG said:

    I have no idea what drives Tories to vote LD

    Instinctual aversion to voting Labour meaning no other alternative, NIMBYism, and a dash of conservative liberalism.
    Knowing that Socialism was tried and failed, so only thicko’s want to try again, and utter despair at Boris unConservative car crash of a government. Barely a week goes by without Boris government doing some Populist that’s utterly unConservative. He’s not come to praise Conservatism, but to bury it.
    "Knowing that Socialism was tried and failed, so only thicko’s want to try again"

    What on earth are you talking about?
    image

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1xJoWzPZGjY
    That's all very well.
    Labour under Starmer may be many things.
    But it ain't Socialism. Or that. Lib Dem fail there.
    Ha. Then what? What are Starmer’s values rooted in? What values set are Labour rooted in today 2300 June 1st 2022? What are its texts it will draw policy from, what are its instincts and values it will draw ideals from, who are its heroes it will draw inspiration from?

    Couple of simple questions. If Labour get in again will they seek to reset UK capitalism, or is everything just hunky dory today? What is Global Britain to them, what are Labours policies for tackling all the negatives of globalisation the red wall knows too well?

    Libdem fail? Or waking you up to your delusion? I’m not expecting thanks from anyone for this service.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,159
  • Options
    TimmycoolTimmycool Posts: 13
    Farooq said:

    In answer to your question, the last time the Tories lost two by elections on the same day was the 7th of November 1991 when the Tories lost Langbaurgh and Kincardine & Deeside to Labour and the Lib Dems respectively.

    The successor seat to K&D is West Aberdeenshire & Kincadine. In 1997, three candidates were called Smith, Kynoch, and Khan, which is quite a Laboury sounding lineup.

    The Lib Dems held it with Robert Smith, until the Disintegration of the Lib Dem vote in 2015. It's now held by Bowie, but I doubt things will be Hunky Dory for him at the next election with his majority being just 843
    Farooq, Kiss Me, Kiss Me, Kiss Me, baby! Excellent work.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    edited June 2022
    Roger said:

    kle4 said:

    EPG said:

    I have no idea what drives Tories to vote LD

    Instinctual aversion to voting Labour meaning no other alternative, NIMBYism, and a dash of conservative liberalism.
    Knowing that Socialism was tried and failed, so only thicko’s want to try again, and utter despair at Boris unConservative car crash of a government. Barely a week goes by without Boris government doing some Populist that’s utterly unConservative. He’s not come to praise Conservatism, but to bury it.
    "Knowing that Socialism was tried and failed, so only thicko’s want to try again"

    What on earth are you talking about?
    image

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1xJoWzPZGjY
    The plot thickens!
    What is so stupid about Boris Johnson and his supporters is this weeks actions have coaxed even more letters in, there would be less letters in if he did zilch and spent a week in Goldsmiths villa. As a fight back it laughable, he’s spent the week pouring petrol in the flames.

    Todays interview takes us back to January “I did nothing wrong. I’m using the word apology, but in the next sentence telling you I shouldn’t have got FPN cause I never went to any real party, this means you are not getting a sincere apology out of me, are you?” That’s exactly what he said isn’t it?

    What Boris done in last few days to ethics code is 100% populist mindset. Not Conservative. What do I mean by that, and why Boris is the enemy of what the Conservative Party has always stood for?
    Populism pushes the idea of popular sovereignty above the independence of democratic institutions, and the professionalism of the representatives of those institutions. How much evidence do you need, the mindset of Boris and the nest of vipers around him operate with such disregard for the checks and balances of democratic structure, ignoring or circumventing wherever they can? But also True Conservatives stand for those values and institutions that make the UK great, not against those values and institutions. Conservatives must always stand against populist opportunism masquerading as values and agenda for government, that is to such large degree Moralist ideology believing it is the voice of all the people, authoritarian, deaf to anyone with a different view.

    Why is this always important to Conservatism, why the clear line between Conservatives and right wing populists? Because Lack of trust in facts, in government, undermines dealing with the real problems facing this country and the world. If you came into politics because you were attracted by what Conservatives have always stood for, attracted by Conservatism - get that oaf journalist out of there.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,940
    edited June 2022

    dixiedean said:

    kle4 said:

    EPG said:

    I have no idea what drives Tories to vote LD

    Instinctual aversion to voting Labour meaning no other alternative, NIMBYism, and a dash of conservative liberalism.
    Knowing that Socialism was tried and failed, so only thicko’s want to try again, and utter despair at Boris unConservative car crash of a government. Barely a week goes by without Boris government doing some Populist that’s utterly unConservative. He’s not come to praise Conservatism, but to bury it.
    "Knowing that Socialism was tried and failed, so only thicko’s want to try again"

    What on earth are you talking about?
    image

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1xJoWzPZGjY
    That's all very well.
    Labour under Starmer may be many things.
    But it ain't Socialism. Or that. Lib Dem fail there.
    Ha. Then what? What are Starmer’s values rooted in? What values set are Labour rooted in today 2300 June 1st 2022? What are its texts it will draw policy from, what are its instincts and values it will draw ideals from, who are its heroes it will draw inspiration from?

    Couple of simple questions. If Labour get in again will they seek to reset UK capitalism, or is everything just hunky dory today? What is Global Britain to them, what are Labours policies for tackling all the negatives of globalisation the red wall knows too well?

    Libdem fail? Or waking you up to your delusion? I’m not expecting thanks from anyone for this service.
    The values of social democracy. Those of Attlee, Wilson and Blair. Some of us grew up (literally) fighting actual Communists as our main opponents.
    I find your Soviet insinuations a little offensive.
    But then again. You're too young to remember it.
  • Options
    londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,174
    Enjoy the Jubilee holiday y'all

    Then next week we can concentrate on the letters 👍
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,576
    Nicola Sturgeon's tribute to Her Majesty The Queen in the Scottish Parliament today. It might be the most fulsome encomium to the Sovereign I've heard so far this Platinum Jubilee week.

    I wonder if the SNP leader might be a wee bit of a monarchist...


    https://twitter.com/JournoStephen/status/1532119809160265728
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    kle4 said:

    EPG said:

    I have no idea what drives Tories to vote LD

    Instinctual aversion to voting Labour meaning no other alternative, NIMBYism, and a dash of conservative liberalism.
    Knowing that Socialism was tried and failed, so only thicko’s want to try again, and utter despair at Boris unConservative car crash of a government. Barely a week goes by without Boris government doing some Populist that’s utterly unConservative. He’s not come to praise Conservatism, but to bury it.
    "Knowing that Socialism was tried and failed, so only thicko’s want to try again"

    What on earth are you talking about?
    image

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1xJoWzPZGjY
    That's all very well.
    Labour under Starmer may be many things.
    But it ain't Socialism. Or that. Lib Dem fail there.
    Ha. Then what? What are Starmer’s values rooted in? What values set are Labour rooted in today 2300 June 1st 2022? What are its texts it will draw policy from, what are its instincts and values it will draw ideals from, who are its heroes it will draw inspiration from?

    Couple of simple questions. If Labour get in again will they seek to reset UK capitalism, or is everything just hunky dory today? What is Global Britain to them, what are Labours policies for tackling all the negatives of globalisation the red wall knows too well?

    Libdem fail? Or waking you up to your delusion? I’m not expecting thanks from anyone for this service.
    The values of social democracy. Some of us grew up (literally) fighting actual Communists as our main opponents.
    I find your Soviet insinuations a little offensive.
    Union of Soviet Socialist Republics.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-SHhXMzXFl0

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Q9vYjqQ5Ek

    https://www.mailplus.co.uk/edition/news/politics/110264/big-brother-carole-vincent-keir-starmer-labour-party-farce
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    kle4 said:

    EPG said:

    I have no idea what drives Tories to vote LD

    Instinctual aversion to voting Labour meaning no other alternative, NIMBYism, and a dash of conservative liberalism.
    Knowing that Socialism was tried and failed, so only thicko’s want to try again, and utter despair at Boris unConservative car crash of a government. Barely a week goes by without Boris government doing some Populist that’s utterly unConservative. He’s not come to praise Conservatism, but to bury it.
    "Knowing that Socialism was tried and failed, so only thicko’s want to try again"

    What on earth are you talking about?
    image

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1xJoWzPZGjY
    That's all very well.
    Labour under Starmer may be many things.
    But it ain't Socialism. Or that. Lib Dem fail there.
    Ha. Then what? What are Starmer’s values rooted in? What values set are Labour rooted in today 2300 June 1st 2022? What are its texts it will draw policy from, what are its instincts and values it will draw ideals from, who are its heroes it will draw inspiration from?

    Couple of simple questions. If Labour get in again will they seek to reset UK capitalism, or is everything just hunky dory today? What is Global Britain to them, what are Labours policies for tackling all the negatives of globalisation the red wall knows too well?

    Libdem fail? Or waking you up to your delusion? I’m not expecting thanks from anyone for this service.
    The values of social democracy. Those of Attlee, Wilson and Blair. Some of us grew up (literally) fighting actual Communists as our main opponents.
    I find your Soviet insinuations a little offensive.
    But then again. You're too young to remember it.
    Then let’s look forward. The first point of party politics is to explain the issues and required action from your point of view 🙂

    Couple of simple questions. If Labour get in again will they seek to reset UK capitalism, or is everything just hunky dory today? What is Global Britain to them, what are Labours policies for tackling all the negatives of globalisation the red wall knows too well?
  • Options
    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 6,977
    FPT @rcs1000

    Quit whining about Erewhon… I checked Ezekiel bread there… it’s only $7.49 compared to £8.50 at Panzers in London
  • Options
    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,064

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    I kind of admire their persistence, but their alternative suggestions are pretty cumbersome to say the least

    France's language watchdog has told government officials to use French gaming terms instead of English ones.

    The Académie Française says "jeu video de competition" should replace "e-sports", and "streamer" should become "joueur-animateur en direct".


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-61647192

    Yep, all those French kids will be saying “jeu video de competition” rather than “e-sports”


    It’s a bit like a posh great great grandmother trying to get you to say “looking glass” rather than “mirror”, except there isn’t even a poshness value, plus the whole thing is even more embarrassing

    Any French teen will simply CRINGE

    I brought my sons up from the beginning to say toilet when they meant lavatory because of the pain I knew it would inflict on my father.
    My parents say supper and I say dinner partly just to wind them up (but mainly because supper just sounds fucking ridiculous).
    And you all eat it at teatime...
    Tea is a drink not a meal.
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    I kind of admire their persistence, but their alternative suggestions are pretty cumbersome to say the least

    France's language watchdog has told government officials to use French gaming terms instead of English ones.

    The Académie Française says "jeu video de competition" should replace "e-sports", and "streamer" should become "joueur-animateur en direct".


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-61647192

    Yep, all those French kids will be saying “jeu video de competition” rather than “e-sports”


    It’s a bit like a posh great great grandmother trying to get you to say “looking glass” rather than “mirror”, except there isn’t even a poshness value, plus the whole thing is even more embarrassing

    Any French teen will simply CRINGE

    I brought my sons up from the beginning to say toilet when they meant lavatory because of the pain I knew it would inflict on my father.
    My parents say supper and I say dinner partly just to wind them up (but mainly because supper just sounds fucking ridiculous).
    And you all eat it at teatime...
    Tea is a drink not a meal.
    It's neither. It's fit pouring down a drain, nothing more.
  • Options
    Wakefield surely a massive swing to Labour but unsure about the Lib Dem chances in the other
  • Options
    EPGEPG Posts: 6,001
    Farooq said:

    In answer to your question, the last time the Tories lost two by elections on the same day was the 7th of November 1991 when the Tories lost Langbaurgh and Kincardine & Deeside to Labour and the Lib Dems respectively.

    The successor seat to K&D is West Aberdeenshire & Kincadine. In 1997, three candidates were called Smith, Kynoch, and Khan, which is quite a Laboury sounding lineup.

    The Lib Dems held it with Robert Smith, until the Disintegration of the Lib Dem vote in 2015. It's now held by Bowie, but I doubt things will be Hunky Dory for him at the next election with his majority being just 843
    So SNP will be shoe-ins if they choose young local independence activist Callum Afrika-Bambaataa.
  • Options
    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 6,977

    The odds on the LDs look too short to me but you have to grant that they've done the difficult and most important bit of their campaign - they have established themselves as the challenge to the Conservatives, despite finishing behind Labour at the previous GE.

    They've already cast this as a two-horse race in which they are one of the two.

    They should win or go very close.

    How have Labour let that happen again? They seem asleep at the switch. Unless it is deliberate, which seems like a foolish strategy - essentially settling for a shared victory of sorts
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    2M in UK have long covid, including 370,000 who have had it two years. According to ONS.

    That’s a bit grim. 😕
  • Options
    Also some more info, I am told that Starmer will consider offering PR to the Lib Dems in any Hung Parliament scenario in exchange for support.

    Starmer does not wish however, to form any coalition.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,920

    FPT @rcs1000

    Quit whining about Erewhon… I checked Ezekiel bread there… it’s only $7.49 compared to £8.50 at Panzers in London

    It's supposed to have 4 and 9 in the price!
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,625
    Farooq said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    I kind of admire their persistence, but their alternative suggestions are pretty cumbersome to say the least

    France's language watchdog has told government officials to use French gaming terms instead of English ones.

    The Académie Française says "jeu video de competition" should replace "e-sports", and "streamer" should become "joueur-animateur en direct".


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-61647192

    Yep, all those French kids will be saying “jeu video de competition” rather than “e-sports”


    It’s a bit like a posh great great grandmother trying to get you to say “looking glass” rather than “mirror”, except there isn’t even a poshness value, plus the whole thing is even more embarrassing

    Any French teen will simply CRINGE

    I brought my sons up from the beginning to say toilet when they meant lavatory because of the pain I knew it would inflict on my father.
    My parents say supper and I say dinner partly just to wind them up (but mainly because supper just sounds fucking ridiculous).
    And you all eat it at teatime...
    Tea is a drink not a meal.
    It's neither. It's fit pouring down a drain, nothing more.
    And to think I liked you, I feel so betrayed right now.
  • Options
    Hey @MoonRabbit !!!
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    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 6,977

    The odds on the LDs look too short to me but you have to grant that they've done the difficult and most important bit of their campaign - they have established themselves as the challenge to the Conservatives, despite finishing behind Labour at the previous GE.

    They've already cast this as a two-horse race in which they are one of the two.

    They should win or go very close.

    How have Labour let that happen again? They seem asleep at the switch. Unless it is deliberate, which seems like a foolish strategy - essentially settling for a shared victory of sorts
    From my inside source, they've deliberately stepped back to let the Lib Dems win, as Lib Dems have done in Wakefield.

    This is how Davey and Starmer see the next GE playing out.
    Which strikes me as wholly unambitious for what purports to be a national party. I think it comes back to bite them in the arse
  • Options
    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 6,977
    rcs1000 said:

    FPT @rcs1000

    Quit whining about Erewhon… I checked Ezekiel bread there… it’s only $7.49 compared to £8.50 at Panzers in London

    It's supposed to have 4 and 9 in the price!
    It may have been 8.49. I was in shock. It’s a loaf of sliced bread…
  • Options

    Also some more info, I am told that Starmer will consider offering PR to the Lib Dems in any Hung Parliament scenario in exchange for support.

    Starmer does not wish however, to form any coalition.

    You have a good source.

    It would be a mistake for Labour to just offer PR, though. For one, there’s not much evidence that it carries much public support.

    I would support PR in local government to end the “Newham phenomenon”, but PR Westminster requires democratic consent via a two stage referendum which follows a Royal Commission into the electoral system.

    Labour and LDs need to restore proper governance and move away from the constitutional knee-jerkery of Blair and Cameron.
    I think they are fairly reliable. If you will recall I had posted about Starmer's resignation pledge long before any MSM outlet had picked it up.

    I did however get the Shadow Cabinet picks wrong, albeit Cooper did find her way back in just not as Shadow Chancellor.
  • Options

    The odds on the LDs look too short to me but you have to grant that they've done the difficult and most important bit of their campaign - they have established themselves as the challenge to the Conservatives, despite finishing behind Labour at the previous GE.

    They've already cast this as a two-horse race in which they are one of the two.

    They should win or go very close.

    How have Labour let that happen again? They seem asleep at the switch. Unless it is deliberate, which seems like a foolish strategy - essentially settling for a shared victory of sorts
    From my inside source, they've deliberately stepped back to let the Lib Dems win, as Lib Dems have done in Wakefield.

    This is how Davey and Starmer see the next GE playing out.
    Which strikes me as wholly unambitious for what purports to be a national party. I think it comes back to bite them in the arse
    Well that's your view, I simply answered why they'd done it
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,845

    Also some more info, I am told that Starmer will consider offering PR to the Lib Dems in any Hung Parliament scenario in exchange for support.

    Starmer does not wish however, to form any coalition.

    You have a good source.

    It would be a mistake for Labour to just offer PR, though. For one, there’s not much evidence that it carries much public support.

    I would support PR in local government to end the “Newham phenomenon”, but PR Westminster requires democratic consent via a two stage referendum which follows a Royal Commission into the electoral system.

    Labour and LDs need to restore proper governance and move away from the constitutional knee-jerkery of Blair and Cameron.
    I think they are fairly reliable. If you will recall I had posted about Starmer's resignation pledge long before any MSM outlet had picked it up.

    I did however get the Shadow Cabinet picks wrong, albeit Cooper did find her way back in just not as Shadow Chancellor.
    I have a decent source too, although I haven’t spoken to him for a while. He is coming to stay with me for a couple of days in New York in a few weeks so I’ll see what tid-bits I can glean from him.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,920
    kyf_100 said:

    Farooq said:

    dixiedean said:

    First story on World Tonight.
    Am I the only one who doesn't give a monkey's about Depp v Heard?

    I literally have no idea who alleged what about whom. I know that Depp is an actor, I don't know who Herd is. I have the oddest feeling even that scant information is more than I need to know but I'm happy to take advice on why I should care if I'm wrong.
    Both are actors. Depp is the only good one.

    Ultimately it's a story about who abused who, and whether or not a woman can be an abuser (Hint, yes, anyone can). Amber Heard claimed Depp abused her, and it almost finished off his career. She effectively tried to have him cancelled.

    Now it's come out that, while neither of them were exactly perfect, she was the abusive one (cutting his finger off, defecating in his bed etc). Also a flagrant liar, claiming she donated millions from their divorce settlement to charity when she did not.

    A lot of men (and women) who have been in relationships with a manipulative partner who has been believed over them will be nodding and smiling this evening.
    On the subject of defecating, Simon Evans (as always) gets it spot on:

    https://youtu.be/BALKMeEWi0I?t=92
  • Options

    Also some more info, I am told that Starmer will consider offering PR to the Lib Dems in any Hung Parliament scenario in exchange for support.

    Starmer does not wish however, to form any coalition.

    You have a good source.

    It would be a mistake for Labour to just offer PR, though. For one, there’s not much evidence that it carries much public support.

    I would support PR in local government to end the “Newham phenomenon”, but PR Westminster requires democratic consent via a two stage referendum which follows a Royal Commission into the electoral system.

    Labour and LDs need to restore proper governance and move away from the constitutional knee-jerkery of Blair and Cameron.
    I think they are fairly reliable. If you will recall I had posted about Starmer's resignation pledge long before any MSM outlet had picked it up.

    I did however get the Shadow Cabinet picks wrong, albeit Cooper did find her way back in just not as Shadow Chancellor.
    I have a decent source too, although I haven’t spoken to him for a while. He is coming to stay with me for a couple of days in New York in a few weeks so I’ll see what tid-bits I can glean from him.
    Scenes when it ends up being the same source. I am assuming it's a friend of Starmer's is it?

    I had a "friend" inside Corbyn's team as well albeit they were one of the faithful so it didn't help get an objective view on things.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,920

    rcs1000 said:

    FPT @rcs1000

    Quit whining about Erewhon… I checked Ezekiel bread there… it’s only $7.49 compared to £8.50 at Panzers in London

    It's supposed to have 4 and 9 in the price!
    It may have been 8.49. I was in shock. It’s a loaf of sliced bread…
    And not even that great a one.
  • Options
    RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,156

    Also some more info, I am told that Starmer will consider offering PR to the Lib Dems in any Hung Parliament scenario in exchange for support.

    Starmer does not wish however, to form any coalition.

    He'd just give them PR or would it be a referendum?
    And what about Lab's attitude towards the SNP in a hung parliament situation? Dare them to vote Labour down?
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    kle4 said:

    EPG said:

    I have no idea what drives Tories to vote LD

    Instinctual aversion to voting Labour meaning no other alternative, NIMBYism, and a dash of conservative liberalism.
    Knowing that Socialism was tried and failed, so only thicko’s want to try again, and utter despair at Boris unConservative car crash of a government. Barely a week goes by without Boris government doing some Populist that’s utterly unConservative. He’s not come to praise Conservatism, but to bury it.
    "Knowing that Socialism was tried and failed, so only thicko’s want to try again"

    What on earth are you talking about?
    image

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1xJoWzPZGjY
    That's all very well.
    Labour under Starmer may be many things.
    But it ain't Socialism. Or that. Lib Dem fail there.
    Ha. Then what? What are Starmer’s values rooted in? What values set are Labour rooted in today 2300 June 1st 2022? What are its texts it will draw policy from, what are its instincts and values it will draw ideals from, who are its heroes it will draw inspiration from?

    Couple of simple questions. If Labour get in again will they seek to reset UK capitalism, or is everything just hunky dory today? What is Global Britain to them, what are Labours policies for tackling all the negatives of globalisation the red wall knows too well?

    Libdem fail? Or waking you up to your delusion? I’m not expecting thanks from anyone for this service.
    The values of social democracy. Those of Attlee, Wilson and Blair. Some of us grew up (literally) fighting actual Communists as our main opponents.
    I find your Soviet insinuations a little offensive.
    But then again. You're too young to remember it.
    Then let’s look forward. The first point of party politics is to explain the issues and required action from your point of view 🙂

    Couple of simple questions. If Labour get in again will they seek to reset UK capitalism, or is everything just hunky dory today? What is Global Britain to them, what are Labours policies for tackling all the negatives of globalisation the red wall knows too well?
    Two simple questions, no answers?

    You were all a bit cheeky to start with, soon as it turns out MoonRabbit too clever for you, you legged it. 😀

    Well these questions about what Starmer Labour are actually for, and will do with power if they have it in 2025, are not going away. They will be waiting for you in the morning.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,920

    Also some more info, I am told that Starmer will consider offering PR to the Lib Dems in any Hung Parliament scenario in exchange for support.

    Starmer does not wish however, to form any coalition.

    He'd just give them PR or would it be a referendum?
    And what about Lab's attitude towards the SNP in a hung parliament situation? Dare them to vote Labour down?
    I think it would be very foolish (actually, I think it would be utterly outrageous) for the coalition to change the Parliamentary election system without a referendum.

    That being said, I would (presuming it was in parties' manifestos) support a move to multi-member STV at the local level. I think it would likely avoid the Newham problem and improve council accountability no end.
  • Options
    stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,777
    Roger said:

    stjohn said:

    Roger said:

    I just got an email fro Owen Smith asking me for money. I'm not a Labour Party member but it was sent to me personally from the candidate for Wakefield. It said the usual donation was £13 which seemed modest so I sent it.

    It's a good idea to send personal emails to people you don't know. £13 to help remove Johnson is the least any of us can do and I'm sure plenty of other people will feel the same.

    (it asked if I'd ever been to Wakefield! Apparently its been abandoned)


    01/06/2022

    Dear Roger(damus)
    c/o Mike Smithson@PB.com
    (aka OGH: backer of Obama to be POTUS at unbelievable odds!)

    I am writing to you personally to request your support for an important endeavour. I am trying to remove some funds from a gentleman called Mr William Hill who has far more money than I do. This necessary and justifiable rebalancing of the economy can be readily achieved if I can raise a stake to invest on the winner of the Epsom Derby this Saturday. (The name of the winning horse is called Changingoftheguard and is currently available to back with Mr Hill at 8/1).

    If you could send me £13 to assist in this necessary redistribution of funds from the rich to the less well off, it would be greatly appreciated. I'm sure plenty of other people you know will feel they would like to do the same and support this initiative. Please ask them to send me some dosh too. I will DM you with my bank details.

    Kind regards,

    stjohn.
    My Dear StJohn

    As you can imagine I am inundated with requests for assistance at this difficult time. However as your request is relatively modest and the cause is close to my heart I am moved to contribute.

    For security purposes if you could fill this square with the following word to show you are not a robot I will furnish the donation without delay


    llanfairpwl/lg/wy//ngyllgo/gerych//wyrndro/bwllllantysiliog/ogogoch

    Cordially Yours

    Rogerdamus
    Hi Roger,

    Maybe it would be simpler if we both individually place our bets on my selection and sort out the redistribution of funds issue in the unlikely event that it wins! An each way bet, win and place.

    With the recent death of Lester Piggott, (aged 86, "the greatest flat jockey ever" , a record 9 times winner of the Epsom Derby), and the increasingly fragility of HM QE II, (aged 96, "the greatest monarch I have witnessed in my lifetime" who is about to begin a weekend of Platinum Jubilee celebrations, in the twilight of her reign), it all feels to me that we are about to witness a "Changing of the Guard".

    So that's my Epsom Derby bet. Changingoftheguard each way at 8-9/1.

  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,845

    Also some more info, I am told that Starmer will consider offering PR to the Lib Dems in any Hung Parliament scenario in exchange for support.

    Starmer does not wish however, to form any coalition.

    You have a good source.

    It would be a mistake for Labour to just offer PR, though. For one, there’s not much evidence that it carries much public support.

    I would support PR in local government to end the “Newham phenomenon”, but PR Westminster requires democratic consent via a two stage referendum which follows a Royal Commission into the electoral system.

    Labour and LDs need to restore proper governance and move away from the constitutional knee-jerkery of Blair and Cameron.
    I think they are fairly reliable. If you will recall I had posted about Starmer's resignation pledge long before any MSM outlet had picked it up.

    I did however get the Shadow Cabinet picks wrong, albeit Cooper did find her way back in just not as Shadow Chancellor.
    I have a decent source too, although I haven’t spoken to him for a while. He is coming to stay with me for a couple of days in New York in a few weeks so I’ll see what tid-bits I can glean from him.
    Scenes when it ends up being the same source. I am assuming it's a friend of Starmer's is it?

    I had a "friend" inside Corbyn's team as well albeit they were one of the faithful so it didn't help get an objective view on things.
    Mines a Blairite sleeper who has been promised a safe seat. Although I’m worried he’s a bit picky.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    rcs1000 said:

    Also some more info, I am told that Starmer will consider offering PR to the Lib Dems in any Hung Parliament scenario in exchange for support.

    Starmer does not wish however, to form any coalition.

    He'd just give them PR or would it be a referendum?
    And what about Lab's attitude towards the SNP in a hung parliament situation? Dare them to vote Labour down?
    I think it would be very foolish (actually, I think it would be utterly outrageous) for the coalition to change the Parliamentary election system without a referendum.

    That being said, I would (presuming it was in parties' manifestos) support a move to multi-member STV at the local level. I think it would likely avoid the Newham problem and improve council accountability no end.
    They change the electoral setup all the time without a referendum. We don’t get a vote on these boundaries, nor did we ever get a vote on FPTP.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,238
    edited June 2022
    MP Jeremy Wright, the former attorney general who this week joined calls for the prime minister to quit, has been knighted in the Queen’s Jubilee birthday honours list, so it is pretty clear what Her Majesty thinks of partygate.

    Labour MP Nia Griffith and Conservative MP Maria Miller are made dames in the list, while Labour MP Stephen Timms is knighted.

    Other political figures to get honours include former sports minister Tracey Crouch, who is made a CBE for her work on a fan-led review into football.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61644729
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,902
    Big win for Depp over Amber Turd
  • Options
    JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,006

    MP Jeremy Wright, the former attorney general who this week joined calls for the prime minister to quit, has been knighted in the Queen’s Jubilee birthday honours list, so it is pretty clear what Her Majesty thinks of partygate.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61644729

    Don't AGs get knighted as a matter of course?
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,238
    Former attorney general Jeremy Wright, who called on Boris Johnson to resign on Monday, has been given a knighthood in the Queen's Birthday Honours.

    He is among six serving MPs and a former first minister at Stormont, Arlene Foster, to be recognised in the Platinum Jubilee list.

    Ms Foster becomes a dame, along with Conservative former culture secretary Maria Miller and Labour's Nia Griffith.

    Labour former Treasury chief secretary Stephen Timms is also knighted.

    Tracey Crouch, who was sports minister from 2015 to 2018 and chaired a fan-led review into English football last year, becomes a CBE.

    Her fellow Tories, Chris Skidmore and former MP David Harris, are made OBEs.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-61658384
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,940

    Former attorney general Jeremy Wright, who called on Boris Johnson to resign on Monday, has been given a knighthood in the Queen's Birthday Honours.

    He is among six serving MPs and a former first minister at Stormont, Arlene Foster, to be recognised in the Platinum Jubilee list.

    Ms Foster becomes a dame, along with Conservative former culture secretary Maria Miller and Labour's Nia Griffith.

    Labour former Treasury chief secretary Stephen Timms is also knighted.

    Tracey Crouch, who was sports minister from 2015 to 2018 and chaired a fan-led review into English football last year, becomes a CBE.

    Her fellow Tories, Chris Skidmore and former MP David Harris, are made OBEs.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-61658384

    I was on the executive committee of Warwick and Leamington Conservatives with Sir Jeremy many years ago, well deserved
  • Options
    dodradedodrade Posts: 595
    Jonathan said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Also some more info, I am told that Starmer will consider offering PR to the Lib Dems in any Hung Parliament scenario in exchange for support.

    Starmer does not wish however, to form any coalition.

    He'd just give them PR or would it be a referendum?
    And what about Lab's attitude towards the SNP in a hung parliament situation? Dare them to vote Labour down?
    I think it would be very foolish (actually, I think it would be utterly outrageous) for the coalition to change the Parliamentary election system without a referendum.

    That being said, I would (presuming it was in parties' manifestos) support a move to multi-member STV at the local level. I think it would likely avoid the Newham problem and improve council accountability no end.
    They change the electoral setup all the time without a referendum. We don’t get a vote on these boundaries, nor did we ever get a vote on FPTP.
    68% voted to retain FFTP in 2011.
  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,982
    edited June 2022



    1.5 man hours=3 people working for half an hour to clean one car? Seems unlikely.
    (I clean my own car so I don't have first hand knowledge on this PB perennial but I would have 0.5 man hours as the upper limit on what seems plausible).

    To do it 'properly' it takes me a day and a half with the wheels off and seats out. Rainwater washes, clay bar, wax, ceramic coat, etc. Longer, if I'm doing paint correction.

    You're better off doing nothing than taking it to an automatic one or a gang of tatterdemalion kurds with buckets of gritty water. Both will destroy your clear coat.
  • Options
    AslanAslan Posts: 1,673
    Jonathan said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Also some more info, I am told that Starmer will consider offering PR to the Lib Dems in any Hung Parliament scenario in exchange for support.

    Starmer does not wish however, to form any coalition.

    He'd just give them PR or would it be a referendum?
    And what about Lab's attitude towards the SNP in a hung parliament situation? Dare them to vote Labour down?
    I think it would be very foolish (actually, I think it would be utterly outrageous) for the coalition to change the Parliamentary election system without a referendum.

    That being said, I would (presuming it was in parties' manifestos) support a move to multi-member STV at the local level. I think it would likely avoid the Newham problem and improve council accountability no end.
    They change the electoral setup all the time without a referendum. We don’t get a vote on these boundaries, nor did we ever get a vote on FPTP.
    Boundary adjustments are hardly equivalent to completely changing the system. It always amazes me how supposedly left wing people always want things imposed by elites.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,451
    Mary Harrington:

    "My hunch is that, in reality, royal lifestyles are, behind the scenes, quite drab in places: all gilt and splendid rooms up front, but with bathrooms in need of updating and central heating that doesn’t always work. Many photos of the royal family’s private living spaces have the characteristic aesthetic of a once-ascendant British ruling class: good-quality chintz wearing in places, dark mahogany, dog hair on the carpet. (I privately suspect Meghan Markle disliked her new life as a princess not because of media pressure, but because being real English royalty turned out to be not nearly as swanky as being the figurative Hollywood kind.)"

    https://unherd.com/2022/06/the-queens-secret-history/
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,920
    Jonathan said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Also some more info, I am told that Starmer will consider offering PR to the Lib Dems in any Hung Parliament scenario in exchange for support.

    Starmer does not wish however, to form any coalition.

    He'd just give them PR or would it be a referendum?
    And what about Lab's attitude towards the SNP in a hung parliament situation? Dare them to vote Labour down?
    I think it would be very foolish (actually, I think it would be utterly outrageous) for the coalition to change the Parliamentary election system without a referendum.

    That being said, I would (presuming it was in parties' manifestos) support a move to multi-member STV at the local level. I think it would likely avoid the Newham problem and improve council accountability no end.
    They change the electoral setup all the time without a referendum. We don’t get a vote on these boundaries, nor did we ever get a vote on FPTP.
    By that logic, it would be perfectly OK for the new coalition to simply abolish elections altogether.

    Referendums are painful.

    But if you want a constitutional change as significant as - say - changing the Westminster voting system, or independence for Scotland, or even leaving the EU, then you need one. (The exception, I guess, would be if there was a "Introduce PR Now" party that won an Westminster election with more than 50% of the vote.)

  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,920
    Andy_JS said:

    Mary Harrington:

    "My hunch is that, in reality, royal lifestyles are, behind the scenes, quite drab in places: all gilt and splendid rooms up front, but with bathrooms in need of updating and central heating that doesn’t always work. Many photos of the royal family’s private living spaces have the characteristic aesthetic of a once-ascendant British ruling class: good-quality chintz wearing in places, dark mahogany, dog hair on the carpet. (I privately suspect Meghan Markle disliked her new life as a princess not because of media pressure, but because being real English royalty turned out to be not nearly as swanky as being the figurative Hollywood kind.)"

    https://unherd.com/2022/06/the-queens-secret-history/

    That's pretty astute.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,920
    Dura_Ace said:



    1.5 man hours=3 people working for half an hour to clean one car? Seems unlikely.
    (I clean my own car so I don't have first hand knowledge on this PB perennial but I would have 0.5 man hours as the upper limit on what seems plausible).

    To do it 'properly' it takes me a day and a half with the wheels off and seats out. Rainwater washes, clay bar, wax, ceramic coat, etc. Longer, if I'm doing paint correction.

    You're better off doing nothing than taking it to an automatic one or a gang of tatterdemalion kurds with buckets of gritty water. Both will destroy your clear coat.
    I guess you're concerned with making sure there's absolutely no identifiable DNA, while most of us are happy with our car just looking a little cleaner.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    Jonathan said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Also some more info, I am told that Starmer will consider offering PR to the Lib Dems in any Hung Parliament scenario in exchange for support.

    Starmer does not wish however, to form any coalition.

    He'd just give them PR or would it be a referendum?
    And what about Lab's attitude towards the SNP in a hung parliament situation? Dare them to vote Labour down?
    I think it would be very foolish (actually, I think it would be utterly outrageous) for the coalition to change the Parliamentary election system without a referendum.

    That being said, I would (presuming it was in parties' manifestos) support a move to multi-member STV at the local level. I think it would likely avoid the Newham problem and improve council accountability no end.
    They change the electoral setup all the time without a referendum. We don’t get a vote on these boundaries, nor did we ever get a vote on FPTP.
    The boundaries are dealt with by an independent commission. Why on earth would there be a referendum on their work?
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,920
    dodrade said:

    Jonathan said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Also some more info, I am told that Starmer will consider offering PR to the Lib Dems in any Hung Parliament scenario in exchange for support.

    Starmer does not wish however, to form any coalition.

    He'd just give them PR or would it be a referendum?
    And what about Lab's attitude towards the SNP in a hung parliament situation? Dare them to vote Labour down?
    I think it would be very foolish (actually, I think it would be utterly outrageous) for the coalition to change the Parliamentary election system without a referendum.

    That being said, I would (presuming it was in parties' manifestos) support a move to multi-member STV at the local level. I think it would likely avoid the Newham problem and improve council accountability no end.
    They change the electoral setup all the time without a referendum. We don’t get a vote on these boundaries, nor did we ever get a vote on FPTP.
    68% voted to retain FFTP in 2011.
    That's not true (or rather it's a slightly misleading way of framing it): 68% of people voted not to replace FPTP with AV.

    I always think that we should have aped the EU referendum, and gone with:

    Shall we keep FPTP as the voting system for Westminster elections?

    With the options being:

    Remain with FPTP
    Leave for pastures new

    We could then have had people voting Leave for all kinds of preferred voting systems.
  • Options
    Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,478
    Arlene Foster's name was vaguely familiar, but that was all I could remember until I read her Wikipedia biography. And that made me think that she deserves this song celebrating Dames, including, now, her:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ljm9CDRAhMQ
  • Options
    EPGEPG Posts: 6,001
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/jun/01/euan-blair-from-pms-son-to-700m-business-and-an-mbe
    A heartwarming story of a lad who built a fortune not through boring university, but the good old-fashioned way.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,920
    EPG said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/jun/01/euan-blair-from-pms-son-to-700m-business-and-an-mbe
    A heartwarming story of a lad who built a fortune not through boring university, but the good old-fashioned way.

    I'm considering becoming an anarchist.
  • Options
    StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    I just got an email fro Owen Smith asking me for money. I'm not a Labour Party member but it was sent to me personally from the candidate for Wakefield. It said the usual donation was £13 which seemed modest so I sent it.

    It's a good idea to send personal emails to people you don't know. £13 to help remove Johnson is the least any of us can do and I'm sure plenty of other people will feel the same.

    (it asked if I'd ever been to Wakefield! Apparently its been abandoned)

    How did they get your email address?
    I don't think Labour are very good at tidying up their contacts. I left the party 18 years ago, but still get occasional contact from them.
    I get regular e-mails from them.
    I have never once been a member or registered supporter.
    Scottish Labour are notorious for having grossly inaccurate voter data. Even seen them targeting the SNP candidate, her agent, the signatories on her nomination papers and the local SNP office-bearers. They really are a bit thick.
    Although. Having never been a member, but a voter, it could be argued that's super efficient targeting of me!
    Of course there are *some* people on their database who are historic and/or prospective Labour voters. But knocking the door and letter/email targeting the SNP candidate in a local by-election, her election agent, the signatories on her nomination papers and the local SNP office-bearers takes a special kind of stupid.

    I think it is because SLab are largely non-existent on the ground in many areas, so are heavily over-reliant on central resources. Often even resources outwith the country.
  • Options
    StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Last CON poll lead in GB: 6 December 2021 (Redfield & Wilton Strategies).

    Last Unionist poll lead in Scotland: 4-7 August 2014 (YouGov/The Scottish Sun).
  • Options
    WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,503
    edited June 2022
    EPG said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/jun/01/euan-blair-from-pms-son-to-700m-business-and-an-mbe
    A heartwarming story of a lad who built a fortune not through boring university, but the good old-fashioned way.

    The point that he himself got where he is through inbuilt advantages is well-taken, and the tendency to advertise living the high life inherited from his father I find a bit odd, but several of the points he makes in the article are reasonably good, and his business does also seem to be helping a lot of academically unqualified school-leavers into better jobs.

  • Options
    EPGEPG Posts: 6,001
    edited June 2022

    EPG said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/jun/01/euan-blair-from-pms-son-to-700m-business-and-an-mbe
    A heartwarming story of a lad who built a fortune not through boring university, but the good old-fashioned way.

    The point that he himself got where he is through inbuilt advantages is well-taken, but several of the points he makes in the article are reasonably good, and at least his business does seem to be genuinely helping a lot of unqualified school-leavers into better jobs.

    The proud advertisng of living the high life inherited from his father I find a bit odd.
    I would credit the businesses and politicians who pay and levy the compulsory training fund. Hopefully there is more to his wealth than grabbing government subsidy spending.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,920

    Last CON poll lead in GB: 6 December 2021 (Redfield & Wilton Strategies).

    Last Unionist poll lead in Scotland: 4-7 August 2014 (YouGov/The Scottish Sun).

    Wow: almost eight years since Con+Lab+LD exceeded SNP+Green.

    Although... I can't help notice a few opinion polls where that's not actually the case
  • Options
    EPG said:

    EPG said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/jun/01/euan-blair-from-pms-son-to-700m-business-and-an-mbe
    A heartwarming story of a lad who built a fortune not through boring university, but the good old-fashioned way.

    The point that he himself got where he is through inbuilt advantages is well-taken, but several of the points he makes in the article are reasonably good, and at least his business does seem to be genuinely helping a lot of unqualified school-leavers into better jobs.

    The proud advertisng of living the high life inherited from his father I find a bit odd.
    I would credit the businesses and politicians who pay and levy the compulsory training fund. Hopefully there is more to his wealth than grabbing government subsidy spending.
    He does seem to be a sort of digital enabler, hooking google up with various businesses.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,187
    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Mary Harrington:

    "My hunch is that, in reality, royal lifestyles are, behind the scenes, quite drab in places: all gilt and splendid rooms up front, but with bathrooms in need of updating and central heating that doesn’t always work. Many photos of the royal family’s private living spaces have the characteristic aesthetic of a once-ascendant British ruling class: good-quality chintz wearing in places, dark mahogany, dog hair on the carpet. (I privately suspect Meghan Markle disliked her new life as a princess not because of media pressure, but because being real English royalty turned out to be not nearly as swanky as being the figurative Hollywood kind.)"

    https://unherd.com/2022/06/the-queens-secret-history/

    That's pretty astute.
    Not sure about the last bit about Meghan. They were living in a refurbished Frogmore Cottage. I bet that was rather nice.
  • Options
    StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Last CON poll lead in GB: 6 December 2021 (Redfield & Wilton Strategies).

    Last LAB poll lead in Scotland: 4-7 August 2014 (YouGov/The Scottish Sun).

    (For Smartypants Robert)
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,187
    Octordle in 11; I’m quite pleased with that.

    Daily Octordle #129
    5️⃣🔟
    7️⃣3️⃣
    9️⃣8️⃣
    🕚4️⃣
    octordle.com
  • Options
    StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Of the eight parliamentary parties in Sweden, it is now looking highly likely that two will be losing their representation in the Riksdag in September’s general election, one from each bloc:

    The Liberals (the ‘borgerlig’ - “bourgeois” - bloc) are on 3.4%

    The Greens (the Red-Green bloc) are on 3.3%

    The threshold is 4%.

    Swedish polling has an excellent track record.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,043
    RobD said:

    Jonathan said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Also some more info, I am told that Starmer will consider offering PR to the Lib Dems in any Hung Parliament scenario in exchange for support.

    Starmer does not wish however, to form any coalition.

    He'd just give them PR or would it be a referendum?
    And what about Lab's attitude towards the SNP in a hung parliament situation? Dare them to vote Labour down?
    I think it would be very foolish (actually, I think it would be utterly outrageous) for the coalition to change the Parliamentary election system without a referendum.

    That being said, I would (presuming it was in parties' manifestos) support a move to multi-member STV at the local level. I think it would likely avoid the Newham problem and improve council accountability no end.
    They change the electoral setup all the time without a referendum. We don’t get a vote on these boundaries, nor did we ever get a vote on FPTP.
    The boundaries are dealt with by an independent commission. Why on earth would there be a referendum on their work?
    Wasn't there some controversy recently that Mr Johnson plans to make them less independent? Don't forget Cameron set the constituency population terms of reference when it came to what constitutes a voter. The metric used of registered voters, set at a specific time in the electoral cycle was, as I recall, wholly to his advantage.

    The fact that an already in built Conservative advantage will be an even bigger Conservative advantage after the Commission has done it's work, tells the story of "independence". That's not to say that after 2005 and 2010 the system wasn't (by quirks of changes to voting patterns) substantially unfair against the Conservatives. I am not sure the best way to fix that unfairness was to ensure future unfairness would be stacked in their favour.
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    kjhkjh Posts: 10,573
    EPG said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/jun/01/euan-blair-from-pms-son-to-700m-business-and-an-mbe
    A heartwarming story of a lad who built a fortune not through boring university, but the good old-fashioned way.

    Robbing banks?
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095

    Former attorney general Jeremy Wright, who called on Boris Johnson to resign on Monday, has been given a knighthood in the Queen's Birthday Honours.

    Her Majesty signalling that is the going rate of reward for putting in a letter?
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    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,253

    Wakefield surely a massive swing to Labour but unsure about the Lib Dem chances in the other

    The LibDems will win massively in Tiverton & Honiton.

    The only chance they won't is if Johnson is removed before then.
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    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,253
    And good morning. Hope you all have a great Jubilee weekend.
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,862

    Her Majesty signalling that is the going rate of reward for putting in a letter?

    As Priti Patel tells Tory MPs hoping to topple @BorisJohnson to "forget it", here's his main problem:

    'Just as a man who marries his mistress creates a vacancy, a disloyal challenger who topples his boss creates a vacancy too'.


    Latest #WaughOnPolitics:

    https://inews.co.uk/opinion/boris-johnsons-party-could-be-toppled-by-his-partys-addiction-to-ousting-leaders-1662899
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    Heathener said:

    Wakefield surely a massive swing to Labour but unsure about the Lib Dem chances in the other

    The LibDems will win massively in Tiverton & Honiton.

    The only chance they won't is if Johnson is removed before then.
    I look forward to your report from the constituency to back that up.....

    Oh, not been?
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    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,253
    edited June 2022

    Heathener said:

    Wakefield surely a massive swing to Labour but unsure about the Lib Dem chances in the other

    The LibDems will win massively in Tiverton & Honiton.

    The only chance they won't is if Johnson is removed before then.
    I look forward to your report from the constituency to back that up.....

    Oh, not been?
    Do you really need to be so facetious / obnoxious especially this early in the day?

    I have a close relative living there and I trust her judgement and I have knowledge of the area. I've also been correct about all my UK political predictions over the past 12 months, although I grant you that that's no guarantee it will continue.

    I also hear the fury across blue wall southern Britain and if you don't then I hold out less hope for a tory revival.

    The betting markets have this right: it will be a big LibDem win.
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    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,045
    edited June 2022
    Can anyone explain why the Chelsea sale figure is being reported as £4.25bn even by the BBC?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/61629815

    Do people just copy corporate press releases or something?

    They are paying £2.5bn to acquire it and the other £1.75bn is just a promised investment in the club. Call me paranoid but the given the controversy over the sale and the money the club owed to Abramovich it's best to be as clear as possible about these things.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,969
    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Jonathan, that's optimistic.

    Fiddling with the electoral system will help some and harm others. There's no way it can be seen as objective.

    Even the stated aims would be open to accusations of bias. Are you after a strong constituency link? Endless coalition (every vote counts, but the power to determine a government is a matter of inter-party negotiation after the election)?

    And imposing a change to the voting system based on a tiny number of people's recommendation with no referendum would not be without controversy.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Wakefield surely a massive swing to Labour but unsure about the Lib Dem chances in the other

    The LibDems will win massively in Tiverton & Honiton.

    The only chance they won't is if Johnson is removed before then.
    I look forward to your report from the constituency to back that up.....

    Oh, not been?
    Do you really need to be so facetious / obnoxious especially this early in the day?

    I have a close relative living there and I trust her judgement and I have knowledge of the area. I've also been correct about all my UK political predictions over the past 12 months, although I grant you that that's no guarantee it will continue.

    I also hear the fury across blue wall southern Britain and if you don't then I hold out less hope for a tory revival.

    The betting markets have this right: it will be a big LibDem win.
    So fuck-all first hand knowledge. I think that deserves being facetious. On a betting site.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 46,795
    edited June 2022
    Good morning from Old Tbilisi, and a happy Jubilee to everyone, monarchist, anarchist, Fascist, communist….. even republican

    To veer slightly off topic, I recall there were some people on here dismissing the Stade de France story as “a scuffle at a football game, will be forgotten in two days”. i said that was not the case, it is indeed not the case. From the Spectator


    “The shambles at the Stade de France on Saturday night took a sinister turn on Wednesday as allegations emerged of incidents of sexual assault committed against supporters by gangs of local youths.

    “What unfolded outside France’s national stadium on Saturday evening as Liverpool and Real Madrid met inside in the final of the Champions League has dominated the news in France ever since. Most of the criticism for what is seen as a national humiliation is directed at Gérald Darmanin, the Minister of the Interior, who since Saturday evening has insisted that Liverpool supporters were predominantly to blame for the trouble. On Wednesday he received the indirect support of his boss, Emmanuel Macron, via his official spokeswoman, Olivia Grégoire, who assured reporters the president is ‘totally’ behind his beleaguered minister.”

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/were-liverpool-fans-sexually-assaulted-at-the-stade-de-france-
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    edited June 2022

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Jonathan, that's optimistic.

    Fiddling with the electoral system will help some and harm others. There's no way it can be seen as objective.

    Even the stated aims would be open to accusations of bias. Are you after a strong constituency link? Endless coalition (every vote counts, but the power to determine a government is a matter of inter-party negotiation after the election)?

    And imposing a change to the voting system based on a tiny number of people's recommendation with no referendum would not be without controversy.

    That’s just an excuse never to reform anything. If you think referenda avoid accusations of bias or controversy you must have spent the last 7 years in a coma!

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    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,253

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Wakefield surely a massive swing to Labour but unsure about the Lib Dem chances in the other

    The LibDems will win massively in Tiverton & Honiton.

    The only chance they won't is if Johnson is removed before then.
    I look forward to your report from the constituency to back that up.....

    Oh, not been?
    Do you really need to be so facetious / obnoxious especially this early in the day?

    I have a close relative living there and I trust her judgement and I have knowledge of the area. I've also been correct about all my UK political predictions over the past 12 months, although I grant you that that's no guarantee it will continue.

    I also hear the fury across blue wall southern Britain and if you don't then I hold out less hope for a tory revival.

    The betting markets have this right: it will be a big LibDem win.
    So fuck-all first hand knowledge. I think that deserves being facetious. On a betting site.
    You really do come across as an incredibly obnoxious / unpleasant character. I hope that is just an online persona and not the real you, for the sake of everyone who has to deal with you on a day-to-day basis.

    But let's cut through your opprobrium. Fancy a bet on T&H?

    If you don't you will prove to me that you like lashing out in an unnecessary and aggressive manner but lack the balls to back it up.

    State a price and put your money where your loud mouth is.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,267
    Andy_JS said:

    pigeon said:

    GIN1138 said:

    General Election 2024: Jermey Hunt Vs Keith Starmer - Dull And Duller!

    However, after everything that's happened in recent years, a lengthy period of grey managerialism and instantly forgettable leadership might prove very welcome.
    I agree. I think Jeremy Hunt would win that particular match-up fairly easily, (although I wouldn't vote for either of their parties).
    Maybe Hunt would surprise you.

    I consider myself on the right of the party, and I certainly don't consider him a wet.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,919

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Wakefield surely a massive swing to Labour but unsure about the Lib Dem chances in the other

    The LibDems will win massively in Tiverton & Honiton.

    The only chance they won't is if Johnson is removed before then.
    I look forward to your report from the constituency to back that up.....

    Oh, not been?
    Do you really need to be so facetious / obnoxious especially this early in the day?

    I have a close relative living there and I trust her judgement and I have knowledge of the area. I've also been correct about all my UK political predictions over the past 12 months, although I grant you that that's no guarantee it will continue.

    I also hear the fury across blue wall southern Britain and if you don't then I hold out less hope for a tory revival.

    The betting markets have this right: it will be a big LibDem win.
    So fuck-all first hand knowledge. I think that deserves being facetious. On a betting site.
    Good morning everyone. Even as a republican I'm looking forward to the next few days. Especially if the weather holds, and even given my mobility problems.

    On topic, I think, Mr M, that that's a bit harsh. Does appear that Ms H has made enquiries in the area. Do you personally inspect each horse you back, or do you look at the form book and listen to the opinions of others?
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    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,253
    Whilst I leave MM to ponder the challenge, I wish you all a lovely and as joyous as possible Jubilee Bank Holiday weekend. MM: send me a message if you pick up the challenge as I'm off out.

    There is a noticeable increase in violence at the moment, violence of many sorts. It sometimes manifests sadly online and on here.

    I hope therefore that above you find peace and calm these next few days. As much as you can, savour the good things of life.

    ciao ciao

    xx

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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,969
    Mr. Jonathan, a referendum based on a recommendation might be the least worse option.

    If one has a pre-conceived desire to change the voting system. Which I don't.
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,590
    HYUFD said:

    Former attorney general Jeremy Wright, who called on Boris Johnson to resign on Monday, has been given a knighthood in the Queen's Birthday Honours.

    He is among six serving MPs and a former first minister at Stormont, Arlene Foster, to be recognised in the Platinum Jubilee list.

    Ms Foster becomes a dame, along with Conservative former culture secretary Maria Miller and Labour's Nia Griffith.

    Labour former Treasury chief secretary Stephen Timms is also knighted.

    Tracey Crouch, who was sports minister from 2015 to 2018 and chaired a fan-led review into English football last year, becomes a CBE.

    Her fellow Tories, Chris Skidmore and former MP David Harris, are made OBEs.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-61658384

    I was on the executive committee of Warwick and Leamington Conservatives with Sir Jeremy many years ago, well deserved
    On a point of historical accuracy: he wasn't Sir then, was he, unless he was a hereditary baronet?
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Wakefield surely a massive swing to Labour but unsure about the Lib Dem chances in the other

    The LibDems will win massively in Tiverton & Honiton.

    The only chance they won't is if Johnson is removed before then.
    I look forward to your report from the constituency to back that up.....

    Oh, not been?
    Do you really need to be so facetious / obnoxious especially this early in the day?

    I have a close relative living there and I trust her judgement and I have knowledge of the area. I've also been correct about all my UK political predictions over the past 12 months, although I grant you that that's no guarantee it will continue.

    I also hear the fury across blue wall southern Britain and if you don't then I hold out less hope for a tory revival.

    The betting markets have this right: it will be a big LibDem win.
    So fuck-all first hand knowledge. I think that deserves being facetious. On a betting site.
    You really do come across as an incredibly obnoxious / unpleasant character. I hope that is just an online persona and not the real you, for the sake of everyone who has to deal with you on a day-to-day basis.

    But let's cut through your opprobrium. Fancy a bet on T&H?

    If you don't you will prove to me that you like lashing out in an unnecessary and aggressive manner but lack the balls to back it up.

    State a price and put your money where your loud mouth is.
    I am quite happy to call out bullshit 24 hours a day. You have no more direct knowledge than your "gut feeling" about what you think should happen. If you really won't a pile on here, tell people it is your gut feeling advising them on how to bet.

    Nobody in their right mind will bet on T&H until less than 24 hours before voting.

    By voting day, there will either have been

    1. A VONC won by Boris

    2. A VONC lost by Boris

    3. A failure by Tory MPs to call for a VONC.

    Each of those outcomes will play out very differently. Can I suggest you dispense with your wisdom on the matter until we know which one faces the voters?
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    edited June 2022

    Andy_JS said:

    pigeon said:

    GIN1138 said:

    General Election 2024: Jermey Hunt Vs Keith Starmer - Dull And Duller!

    However, after everything that's happened in recent years, a lengthy period of grey managerialism and instantly forgettable leadership might prove very welcome.
    I agree. I think Jeremy Hunt would win that particular match-up fairly easily, (although I wouldn't vote for either of their parties).
    Maybe Hunt would surprise you.

    I consider myself on the right of the party, and I certainly don't consider him a wet.
    Hunt carries too much baggage to pull off a John Major style fresh face win. Major was a fresh face, Hunt is not.

    Making Hunt leader would be as much of a fresh start as electing David Blunckett in 2010 or Leon Brittan in 1990.
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    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,045
    rcs1000 said:

    dodrade said:

    Jonathan said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Also some more info, I am told that Starmer will consider offering PR to the Lib Dems in any Hung Parliament scenario in exchange for support.

    Starmer does not wish however, to form any coalition.

    He'd just give them PR or would it be a referendum?
    And what about Lab's attitude towards the SNP in a hung parliament situation? Dare them to vote Labour down?
    I think it would be very foolish (actually, I think it would be utterly outrageous) for the coalition to change the Parliamentary election system without a referendum.

    That being said, I would (presuming it was in parties' manifestos) support a move to multi-member STV at the local level. I think it would likely avoid the Newham problem and improve council accountability no end.
    They change the electoral setup all the time without a referendum. We don’t get a vote on these boundaries, nor did we ever get a vote on FPTP.
    68% voted to retain FFTP in 2011.
    That's not true (or rather it's a slightly misleading way of framing it): 68% of people voted not to replace FPTP with AV.

    I always think that we should have aped the EU referendum, and gone with:

    Shall we keep FPTP as the voting system for Westminster elections?

    With the options being:

    Remain with FPTP
    Leave for pastures new

    We could then have had people voting Leave for all kinds of preferred voting systems.
    Come on Robert. Leaving the EU meant not being in the EU. Getting rid of FPTP means ummm..........
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Wakefield surely a massive swing to Labour but unsure about the Lib Dem chances in the other

    The LibDems will win massively in Tiverton & Honiton.

    The only chance they won't is if Johnson is removed before then.
    I look forward to your report from the constituency to back that up.....

    Oh, not been?
    Do you really need to be so facetious / obnoxious especially this early in the day?

    I have a close relative living there and I trust her judgement and I have knowledge of the area. I've also been correct about all my UK political predictions over the past 12 months, although I grant you that that's no guarantee it will continue.

    I also hear the fury across blue wall southern Britain and if you don't then I hold out less hope for a tory revival.

    The betting markets have this right: it will be a big LibDem win.
    So fuck-all first hand knowledge. I think that deserves being facetious. On a betting site.
    Good morning everyone. Even as a republican I'm looking forward to the next few days. Especially if the weather holds, and even given my mobility problems.

    On topic, I think, Mr M, that that's a bit harsh. Does appear that Ms H has made enquiries in the area. Do you personally inspect each horse you back, or do you look at the form book and listen to the opinions of others?
    I don't back a horse three weeks before I know what the going will be....
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,267
    Jonathan said:

    Andy_JS said:

    pigeon said:

    GIN1138 said:

    General Election 2024: Jermey Hunt Vs Keith Starmer - Dull And Duller!

    However, after everything that's happened in recent years, a lengthy period of grey managerialism and instantly forgettable leadership might prove very welcome.
    I agree. I think Jeremy Hunt would win that particular match-up fairly easily, (although I wouldn't vote for either of their parties).
    Maybe Hunt would surprise you.

    I consider myself on the right of the party, and I certainly don't consider him a wet.
    Hunt carries too much baggage to pull off a John Major style fresh face win. Major was a fresh face, Hunt is not.

    Making Hunt leader would be as much of a fresh start as electing David Blunckett in 2010 or Leon Brittan in 1990.
    Translation: you don't want a credible Tory PM in office that might threaten a Labour victory.

    I can read you like a book.
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,238

    Can anyone explain why the Chelsea sale figure is being reported as £4.25bn even by the BBC?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/61629815

    Do people just copy corporate press releases or something?

    They are paying £2.5bn to acquire it and the other £1.75bn is just a promised investment in the club. Call me paranoid but the given the controversy over the sale and the money the club owed to Abramovich it's best to be as clear as possible about these things.

    Yes they do just copy press releases. They also copy each other.

    The whole saga is unappealing. It is clear that Putin is not going to pull his artillery back because Chelsea has had to be sold by one foreign owner to another foreign owner, who will probably be looking to take money out rather than put it in. Likewise confiscating yachts. The pictures are nice but oligarchs do not run Russia, and oh, here's this month's cheque for oil and gas.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    Mr. Jonathan, a referendum based on a recommendation might be the least worse option.

    If one has a pre-conceived desire to change the voting system. Which I don't.

    Follow the Brexit precedent. Have a referendum on a principle and spend years working out the technical details of what that means in practice.

    Would you like fair votes? Yes or No

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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,919

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Wakefield surely a massive swing to Labour but unsure about the Lib Dem chances in the other

    The LibDems will win massively in Tiverton & Honiton.

    The only chance they won't is if Johnson is removed before then.
    I look forward to your report from the constituency to back that up.....

    Oh, not been?
    Do you really need to be so facetious / obnoxious especially this early in the day?

    I have a close relative living there and I trust her judgement and I have knowledge of the area. I've also been correct about all my UK political predictions over the past 12 months, although I grant you that that's no guarantee it will continue.

    I also hear the fury across blue wall southern Britain and if you don't then I hold out less hope for a tory revival.

    The betting markets have this right: it will be a big LibDem win.
    So fuck-all first hand knowledge. I think that deserves being facetious. On a betting site.
    Good morning everyone. Even as a republican I'm looking forward to the next few days. Especially if the weather holds, and even given my mobility problems.

    On topic, I think, Mr M, that that's a bit harsh. Does appear that Ms H has made enquiries in the area. Do you personally inspect each horse you back, or do you look at the form book and listen to the opinions of others?
    I don't back a horse three weeks before I know what the going will be....
    Fair point.
    FWIW I think that even on such a fair-minded site as this, with contributors usually making careful, judicious assessments, that we are in danger of getting over-enthusiastic about prospects.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    Jonathan said:

    Andy_JS said:

    pigeon said:

    GIN1138 said:

    General Election 2024: Jermey Hunt Vs Keith Starmer - Dull And Duller!

    However, after everything that's happened in recent years, a lengthy period of grey managerialism and instantly forgettable leadership might prove very welcome.
    I agree. I think Jeremy Hunt would win that particular match-up fairly easily, (although I wouldn't vote for either of their parties).
    Maybe Hunt would surprise you.

    I consider myself on the right of the party, and I certainly don't consider him a wet.
    Hunt carries too much baggage to pull off a John Major style fresh face win. Major was a fresh face, Hunt is not.

    Making Hunt leader would be as much of a fresh start as electing David Blunckett in 2010 or Leon Brittan in 1990.
    Translation: you don't want a credible Tory PM in office that might threaten a Labour victory.

    I can read you like a book.
    Nah. As a Labour supporter I welcome Hunt. In the short term an improvement over Boris, which would be good for the country, but very defeatable at the general election. The perfect mix.


This discussion has been closed.