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The Tories look set to lose both June 23rd by-elections – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited June 5 in General
imageThe Tories look set to lose both June 23rd by-elections – politicalbetting.com

At least one PBer, surely, will know when the last time that the Tory party lost two Westminster by elections on the same day.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 101,821
    edited June 1
    In answer to your question, the last time the Tories lost two by elections on the same day was the 7th of November 1991 when the Tories lost Langbaurgh and Kincardine & Deeside to Labour and the Lib Dems respectively.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 5,965

    7th of November 1991.

    A red letter day?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 21,046
    edited June 1
    Value is Con Tiverton Lab Wakefield double.
    That 80% is ludicrous. That doesn't tally with @MarqueeMark's reports.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 75,513
    I kind of admire their persistence, but their alternative suggestions are pretty cumbersome to say the least

    France's language watchdog has told government officials to use French gaming terms instead of English ones.

    The Académie Française says "jeu video de competition" should replace "e-sports", and "streamer" should become "joueur-animateur en direct".


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-61647192
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 17,159

    In answer to your question, the last time the Tories lost two by elections on the same day was the 7th of November 1991 when the Tories lost Langbaurgh and Kincardine & Deeside to Labour and the Lib Dems respectively.

    What happened next?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 71,291
    kle4 said:

    I kind of admire their persistence, but their alternative suggestions are pretty cumbersome to say the least

    France's language watchdog has told government officials to use French gaming terms instead of English ones.

    The Académie Française says "jeu video de competition" should replace "e-sports", and "streamer" should become "joueur-animateur en direct".


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-61647192

    French for streamer just rolls off the tongue. Why use 1 word, when you can use 4.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 75,513
    Leon said:



    The biggest UK city I haven’t visited is probably Leicester. I’ve no great desire to amend this. Everything about it screams: BORING. Sorry Foxy

    It was a great fit for me in that respect.

    But hey, at least now it has a royal tomb to visit.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 6,041
    What happens if there's a VONC next week and Johnson loses?

    Could there be a sufficient "Ding Dong Big Dog is dead" bounce to get the blue team over the line?
  • EPGEPG Posts: 4,189
    I have no idea what drives Tories to vote LD and no local knowledge at all about Devon. That said, the >75% implied probability of a Lib Dem win seems strikingly high.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 17,159
    EPG said:

    I have no idea what drives Tories to vote LD and no local knowledge at all about Devon. That said, the >75% implied probability of a Lib Dem win seems strikingly high.

    Boris does
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 41,101
    kle4 said:

    I kind of admire their persistence, but their alternative suggestions are pretty cumbersome to say the least

    France's language watchdog has told government officials to use French gaming terms instead of English ones.

    The Académie Française says "jeu video de competition" should replace "e-sports", and "streamer" should become "joueur-animateur en direct".


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-61647192

    This year's Eurovision was the first without any French-language songs. The French entry was actually sung in Breton.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 75,513
    edited June 1
    EPG said:

    I have no idea what drives Tories to vote LD

    Instinctual aversion to voting Labour meaning no other alternative, NIMBYism, and a dash of conservative liberalism.
  • Evening all, been celebrating and working (and both) since Wembley on Sunday

    Is the threshold close? If it happens and Johnson wins, is that him effectively safe until the election?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 21,046

    kle4 said:

    I kind of admire their persistence, but their alternative suggestions are pretty cumbersome to say the least

    France's language watchdog has told government officials to use French gaming terms instead of English ones.

    The Académie Française says "jeu video de competition" should replace "e-sports", and "streamer" should become "joueur-animateur en direct".


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-61647192

    French for streamer just rolls off the tongue. Why use 1 word, when you can use 4.
    Also. No word in English could be pronounced in a more stereotypically French way than streamer.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 41,101
    IshmaelZ said:

    In answer to your question, the last time the Tories lost two by elections on the same day was the 7th of November 1991 when the Tories lost Langbaurgh and Kincardine & Deeside to Labour and the Lib Dems respectively.

    What happened next?
    Thatcher's 1987 majority was reduced to just 21 under Major.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 5,877
    kle4 said:

    EPG said:

    I have no idea what drives Tories to vote LD

    Instinctual aversion to voting Labour meaning no other alternative, NIMBYism, and a dash of conservative liberalism.
    Knowing that Socialism was tried and failed, so only thicko’s want to try again, and utter despair at Boris unConservative car crash of a government. Barely a week goes by without Boris government doing some Populist that’s utterly unConservative. He’s not come to praise Conservatism, but to bury it.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 5,877

    What happens if there's a VONC next week and Johnson loses?

    Could there be a sufficient "Ding Dong Big Dog is dead" bounce to get the blue team over the line?

    Yes.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 4,189
    IshmaelZ said:

    EPG said:

    I have no idea what drives Tories to vote LD and no local knowledge at all about Devon. That said, the >75% implied probability of a Lib Dem win seems strikingly high.

    Boris does
    Clearly not to a great extent in national polling, but in some of the bizarre events called by-elections, yes. Now is this more North Shropshire or is it more like Old Bexley and Sidcup. Clearly more like N Shropshire with none of the class & ethnic anxiety of that part of the London periphery. So clearly it is an event that could happen. But what distinguishes a 20% probability from a 45% probability of a Tory win is hard for me to understand.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 21,201
    kle4 said:

    I kind of admire their persistence, but their alternative suggestions are pretty cumbersome to say the least

    France's language watchdog has told government officials to use French gaming terms instead of English ones.

    The Académie Française says "jeu video de competition" should replace "e-sports", and "streamer" should become "joueur-animateur en direct".


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-61647192

    Yep, all those French kids will be saying “jeu video de competition” rather than “e-sports”


    It’s a bit like a posh great great grandmother trying to get you to say “looking glass” rather than “mirror”, except there isn’t even a poshness value, plus the whole thing is even more embarrassing

    Any French teen will simply CRINGE

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 45,452
    MaxPB said:

    A jury in the US has shown it has far better judgement than a UK judge. Depp should appeal against the UK judgement which was based on nothing more than Heard batting her eyelashes at the judge.

    Depp was laughably unprepared for the UK trial. He just assumed that if he said it wasn't true, then he'd be believed. He then got all antsy when he was asked some tricky questions, and looked as slippery as an eel.

    If he'd had the good sense to prepare properly for the UK trial, I doubt he'd have lost it.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 22,258
    Exclusive

    Priti Patel tells Tory plotters who remember she was sacked from the cabinet for having secret meetings with ministers and spies from a foreign country and then brought back to the cabinet and then broke the ministerial code by bullying staff to “forget it”


    https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1532105458655322114
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 17,159

    IshmaelZ said:

    In answer to your question, the last time the Tories lost two by elections on the same day was the 7th of November 1991 when the Tories lost Langbaurgh and Kincardine & Deeside to Labour and the Lib Dems respectively.

    What happened next?
    Thatcher's 1987 majority was reduced to just 21 under Major.
    Sensible Tories would take a repeat of that
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 21,007
    kle4 said:

    Leon said:



    The biggest UK city I haven’t visited is probably Leicester. I’ve no great desire to amend this. Everything about it screams: BORING. Sorry Foxy

    It was a great fit for me in that respect.

    But hey, at least now it has a royal tomb to visit.
    The National Space Centre is well worth a visit.

    https://spacecentre.co.uk
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 29,013
    MaxPB said:

    A jury in the US has shown it has far better judgement than a UK judge. Depp should appeal against the UK judgement which was based on nothing more than Heard batting her eyelashes at the judge.

    Or she should appeal against the US verdict which was based on nothing more than deference to star power with a dash of misogyny throw in.

    You pays your money you takes your choice.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 5,877
    dixiedean said:

    Value is Con Tiverton Lab Wakefield double.
    That 80% is ludicrous. That doesn't tally with @MarqueeMark's reports.

    You are right. I bet on Cons in both, and still confident Tivi is a winner. marq is one of PBs straight guys. I am calling Wakefield for Labour by 2.01168 kilometres to wind the Boris fans up. I’ve cached out that bet.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 16,603
    edited June 1
    I just got an email fro Owen Smith asking me for money. I'm not a Labour Party member but it was sent to me personally from the candidate for Wakefield. It said the usual donation was £13 which seemed modest so I sent it.

    It's a good idea to send personal emails to people you don't know. £13 to help remove Johnson is the least any of us can do and I'm sure plenty of other people will feel the same.

    (it asked if I'd ever been to Wakefield! Apparently its been abandoned)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 45,452
    EPG said:

    I have no idea what drives Tories to vote LD and no local knowledge at all about Devon. That said, the >75% implied probability of a Lib Dem win seems strikingly high.

    So... the answer is "yes". With that said, they won in North Shropshire, where they started in third and more than fifty percentage points behind. *And* the cost of living crisis and Partygate have only gotten worse since December.

    And they won North Shropshire at a canter: 47% vs 32%.

    So, it's hard to make the LDs anything other than favourites.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 21,046
    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    In answer to your question, the last time the Tories lost two by elections on the same day was the 7th of November 1991 when the Tories lost Langbaurgh and Kincardine & Deeside to Labour and the Lib Dems respectively.

    What happened next?
    Thatcher's 1987 majority was reduced to just 21 under Major.
    Sensible Tories would take a repeat of that
    Although not what happened next...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 99,160
    On current polls Labour would gain Wakefield but the Tories would still hold Tiverton and Honiton.

    Yes there is the LD by election but the Tories have picked a better candidate than in Chesham and Amersham or North Shropshire, a well known local lady
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 7,958
    mwadams said:

    This new thread header is at serious risk of derailing the conversations about international supermarket cheese provision.

    Before my in-laws became my in-laws they visited us in England and brought a 4kg block of Dubliner cheese from their local supermarket with them. No-one has every brought me such a well-judged gift.

    It was actually in a Dunnes supermarket in Galway, in the very early days of the pandemic (late February 2020) that I discovered there was a seasonal variation in cheese. As they were selling a mature cheddar cheese that was labelled as being made from autumn milk, which apparently has a different nature to spring milk, and so produces a different cheese. This cheese was made from milk from the co-operative that my uncle-in-law sells his milk to.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 21,046
    edited June 1

    dixiedean said:

    Value is Con Tiverton Lab Wakefield double.
    That 80% is ludicrous. That doesn't tally with @MarqueeMark's reports.

    You are right. I bet on Cons in both, and still confident Tivi is a winner. marq is one of PBs straight guys. I am calling Wakefield for Labour by 2.01168 kilometres to wind the Boris fans up. I’ve cached out that bet.
    Yes. He's partisan. But self-aware that he is partisan.
    Not at all certain it's a Tory hold. But it's a damn sight better than a one in five chance.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 29,013
    dixiedean said:

    First story on World Tonight.
    Am I the only one who doesn't give a monkey's about Depp v Heard?

    American trash basically. Not a patch on Rooney v Vardy.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 6,374

    kle4 said:

    EPG said:

    I have no idea what drives Tories to vote LD

    Instinctual aversion to voting Labour meaning no other alternative, NIMBYism, and a dash of conservative liberalism.
    Knowing that Socialism was tried and failed, so only thicko’s want to try again, and utter despair at Boris unConservative car crash of a government. Barely a week goes by without Boris government doing some Populist that’s utterly unConservative. He’s not come to praise Conservatism, but to bury it.
    Yes, to those of us whose instinct is to be sceptical of state intervention, it's not instinctively obvious that the Conservative Party is more in line with our thinking than the Lib Dems. Especially given the two parties' records on covid.
    But even the current Tory Party is probably still less keen on state intervention than Labour.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 40,468
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    A jury in the US has shown it has far better judgement than a UK judge. Depp should appeal against the UK judgement which was based on nothing more than Heard batting her eyelashes at the judge.

    Depp was laughably unprepared for the UK trial. He just assumed that if he said it wasn't true, then he'd be believed. He then got all antsy when he was asked some tricky questions, and looked as slippery as an eel.

    If he'd had the good sense to prepare properly for the UK trial, I doubt he'd have lost it.
    Amber Heard is claiming her right to free speech has been infringed.

    https://twitter.com/realamberheard/status/1532083776741842945

    image
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 17,159
    kinabalu said:

    dixiedean said:

    First story on World Tonight.
    Am I the only one who doesn't give a monkey's about Depp v Heard?

    American trash basically. Not a patch on Rooney v Vardy.
    :lol:
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 17,159
    dixiedean said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    In answer to your question, the last time the Tories lost two by elections on the same day was the 7th of November 1991 when the Tories lost Langbaurgh and Kincardine & Deeside to Labour and the Lib Dems respectively.

    What happened next?
    Thatcher's 1987 majority was reduced to just 21 under Major.
    Sensible Tories would take a repeat of that
    Although not what happened next...
    Not next next, no
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 18,865
    General Election 2024: Jermey Hunt Vs Keith Starmer - Dull And Duller!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 50,781
    Roger said:

    I just got an email fro Owen Smith asking me for money. I'm not a Labour Party member but it was sent to me personally from the candidate for Wakefield. It said the usual donation was £13 which seemed modest so I sent it.

    It's a good idea to send personal emails to people you don't know. £13 to help remove Johnson is the least any of us can do and I'm sure plenty of other people will feel the same.

    (it asked if I'd ever been to Wakefield! Apparently its been abandoned)

    How did they get your email address?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 32,412
    kle4 said:

    Leon said:



    The biggest UK city I haven’t visited is probably Leicester. I’ve no great desire to amend this. Everything about it screams: BORING. Sorry Foxy

    It was a great fit for me in that respect.

    But hey, at least now it has a royal tomb to visit.
    Leicesters motto is "Semper Eadem" translated often as "always the same"*. Mine is a city proud of being boring, but the fact is that it isnt really. It is a dynamic, and gritty multicultural city. You don't really need to travel the world anymore. In Leicester the world comes to you. Its not for everyone, but I love my adopted city.

    *"always constant", with the implication of reliable, is probably a better translation.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 21,046
    HYUFD said:

    On current polls Labour would gain Wakefield but the Tories would still hold Tiverton and Honiton.

    Yes there is the LD by election but the Tories have picked a better candidate than in Chesham and Amersham or North Shropshire, a well known local lady

    Who is apparently unwilling to answer questions.
    Sarah Millican is a well known local lady round here
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 34,896
    kinabalu said:

    MaxPB said:

    A jury in the US has shown it has far better judgement than a UK judge. Depp should appeal against the UK judgement which was based on nothing more than Heard batting her eyelashes at the judge.

    Or she should appeal against the US verdict which was based on nothing more than deference to star power with a dash of misogyny throw in.

    You pays your money you takes your choice.
    A mixed sex jury vs an old white man judge. Plus she got found to be lying a lot when questioned by Depp's team so her claims of being abused were very untrustworthy.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 21,007

    kle4 said:

    EPG said:

    I have no idea what drives Tories to vote LD

    Instinctual aversion to voting Labour meaning no other alternative, NIMBYism, and a dash of conservative liberalism.
    Knowing that Socialism was tried and failed, so only thicko’s want to try again, and utter despair at Boris unConservative car crash of a government. Barely a week goes by without Boris government doing some Populist that’s utterly unConservative. He’s not come to praise Conservatism, but to bury it.
    "Knowing that Socialism was tried and failed, so only thicko’s want to try again"

    What on earth are you talking about?
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 1,623
    GIN1138 said:

    General Election 2024: Jermey Hunt Vs Keith Starmer - Dull And Duller!

    Can Ed Davey come through the middle? ☀️👍
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 18,865
    Roger said:

    I just got an email fro Owen Smith asking me for money. I'm not a Labour Party member but it was sent to me personally from the candidate for Wakefield. It said the usual donation was £13 which seemed modest so I sent it.

    It's a good idea to send personal emails to people you don't know. £13 to help remove Johnson is the least any of us can do and I'm sure plenty of other people will feel the same.

    (it asked if I'd ever been to Wakefield! Apparently its been abandoned)

    Owen who?
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 1,648

    mwadams said:

    This new thread header is at serious risk of derailing the conversations about international supermarket cheese provision.

    Before my in-laws became my in-laws they visited us in England and brought a 4kg block of Dubliner cheese from their local supermarket with them. No-one has every brought me such a well-judged gift.

    It was actually in a Dunnes supermarket in Galway, in the very early days of the pandemic (late February 2020) that I discovered there was a seasonal variation in cheese. As they were selling a mature cheddar cheese that was labelled as being made from autumn milk, which apparently has a different nature to spring milk, and so produces a different cheese. This cheese was made from milk from the co-operative that my uncle-in-law sells his milk to.
    Likewise morning and evening milk.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 75,513
    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:



    The biggest UK city I haven’t visited is probably Leicester. I’ve no great desire to amend this. Everything about it screams: BORING. Sorry Foxy

    It was a great fit for me in that respect.

    But hey, at least now it has a royal tomb to visit.
    Leicesters motto is "Semper Eadem" translated often as "always the same"*. Mine is a city proud of being boring, but the fact is that it isnt really. It is a dynamic, and gritty multicultural city. You don't really need to travel the world anymore. In Leicester the world comes to you. Its not for everyone, but I love my adopted city.

    *"always constant", with the implication of reliable, is probably a better translation.
    I am not exactly the type to take advantage of what a place has to offer in fairness. You take the boring with you when you travel. I feel like Leon could find some charms there.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 642
    There’s a decent chunk of roman wall in Leicester, with a good 11th century church next to it. Some fool in the 50s stuck a ring road through, though, so there are no parishoners any more.

    There is, however, a museum with the fattest man in England’s chair in it:

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daniel_Lambert

    Also, the national gas museum. Unrelated.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 21,007
    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    I kind of admire their persistence, but their alternative suggestions are pretty cumbersome to say the least

    France's language watchdog has told government officials to use French gaming terms instead of English ones.

    The Académie Française says "jeu video de competition" should replace "e-sports", and "streamer" should become "joueur-animateur en direct".


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-61647192

    Yep, all those French kids will be saying “jeu video de competition” rather than “e-sports”


    It’s a bit like a posh great great grandmother trying to get you to say “looking glass” rather than “mirror”, except there isn’t even a poshness value, plus the whole thing is even more embarrassing

    Any French teen will simply CRINGE

    I brought my sons up from the beginning to say toilet when they meant lavatory because of the pain I knew it would inflict on my father.
    Pater not father, surely?
  • EPGEPG Posts: 4,189
    Cookie said:

    kle4 said:

    EPG said:

    I have no idea what drives Tories to vote LD

    Instinctual aversion to voting Labour meaning no other alternative, NIMBYism, and a dash of conservative liberalism.
    Knowing that Socialism was tried and failed, so only thicko’s want to try again, and utter despair at Boris unConservative car crash of a government. Barely a week goes by without Boris government doing some Populist that’s utterly unConservative. He’s not come to praise Conservatism, but to bury it.
    Yes, to those of us whose instinct is to be sceptical of state intervention, it's not instinctively obvious that the Conservative Party is more in line with our thinking than the Lib Dems. Especially given the two parties' records on covid.
    But even the current Tory Party is probably still less keen on state intervention than Labour.
    My impression is that the LDs are keen for Thaler/Cameron-style micro-interventions that eventually add up to deadweight, while being about as bad on Nimby and macroeconomics as Sunak. But their wrongdoing in office seemed more self-destructive and less about grasping, divisive control than the current lot - which in turn seems better than under the Cummings ministry. That counts for something.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 32,412

    Roger said:

    I just got an email fro Owen Smith asking me for money. I'm not a Labour Party member but it was sent to me personally from the candidate for Wakefield. It said the usual donation was £13 which seemed modest so I sent it.

    It's a good idea to send personal emails to people you don't know. £13 to help remove Johnson is the least any of us can do and I'm sure plenty of other people will feel the same.

    (it asked if I'd ever been to Wakefield! Apparently its been abandoned)

    How did they get your email address?
    I don't think Labour are very good at tidying up their contacts. I left the party 18 years ago, but still get occasional contact from them.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 21,046
    Possession of opium, cocaine and methamphetamine to be decriminalised in British Columbia from Jan 2023.
    Gosh. Not the Social Credit government I remember.
    Nowt wrong with playing up to stereotypes, mind.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 2,409
    GIN1138 said:

    General Election 2024: Jermey Hunt Vs Keith Starmer - Dull And Duller!

    However, after everything that's happened in recent years, a lengthy period of grey managerialism and instantly forgettable leadership might prove very welcome.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 21,046

    GIN1138 said:

    General Election 2024: Jermey Hunt Vs Keith Starmer - Dull And Duller!

    Can Ed Davey come through the middle? ☀️👍
    He could. But no one would notice in the glare of charisma.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 17,089
    pigeon said:

    GIN1138 said:

    General Election 2024: Jermey Hunt Vs Keith Starmer - Dull And Duller!

    However, after everything that's happened in recent years, a lengthy period of grey managerialism and instantly forgettable leadership might prove very welcome.
    I agree. I think Jeremy Hunt would win that particular match-up fairly easily, (although I wouldn't vote for either of their parties).
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 21,046
    edited June 1
    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    I just got an email fro Owen Smith asking me for money. I'm not a Labour Party member but it was sent to me personally from the candidate for Wakefield. It said the usual donation was £13 which seemed modest so I sent it.

    It's a good idea to send personal emails to people you don't know. £13 to help remove Johnson is the least any of us can do and I'm sure plenty of other people will feel the same.

    (it asked if I'd ever been to Wakefield! Apparently its been abandoned)

    How did they get your email address?
    I don't think Labour are very good at tidying up their contacts. I left the party 18 years ago, but still get occasional contact from them.
    I get regular e-mails from them.
    I have never once been a member or registered supporter.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 75,513
    carnforth said:

    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    dixiedean said:

    tlg86 said:

    @dixiedean - you’ve never been to Dorset? I reckon the biggest town/city in Britain that I’ve never been to is Bristol (I’ve stood on Temple Meads station during a locomotive change, but that doesn’t count).

    Sheffield and Edinburgh for me.
    I've been to Scotland for one night. Hogmanay in Glasgow. Few days after Lockerbie.
    Norwich for me.
    I've been to every English county. Never been to South West Wales - that's my biggest gap.
    Actually, never been to NI at all. So if we're including NI, Belfast.
    You should go to NI. Belfast has a superbly dramatic setting, possibly the most theatrical of any big city in the UK. The people are great fun - mixture of Geordies and Dubliners

    Great pubs, great craic, and the food is much improved

    Luscious countryside, albeit wet


    The biggest UK city I haven’t visited is probably Leicester. I’ve no great desire to amend this. Everything about it screams: BORING. Sorry @Foxy
    I should go to NI, yes.
    I was talking to a school-parent who is off to NI for half term. It sounds brilliant, not least how they are getting there: the overnight ferry from Liverpool. Imagine: you set off from your house and are at your port in 45 minutes. For a northwesterner, this is at the very least tremendous novelty. And then sleep on the ferry and by morning you are in holiday! Sounds perfect.
    I had a girlfriend from Leicester. It's not that boring. But I'd struggle to praise it much higher.
    In my head it is RATAE, the walled city, the York of the Midlands. But I should be very clear the version of Leicester which exists in my head on the shaky basis of a few decent real ale pubs DOES NOT exist in real life.
    There’s a decent chunk of roman wall in Leicester, with a good 11th century church next to it. Some fool in the 50s stuck a ring road through, though, so there are no parishoners any more.

    There is, however, a museum with the fattest man in England’s chair in it:

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daniel_Lambert
    After some months in London, Lambert was visited by Józef Boruwłaski, a 3-foot-3-inch (99 cm) dwarf then in his seventies.[44] Born in 1739 to a poor family in rural Pokuttya,[45] Boruwłaski was generally considered to be the last of Europe's court dwarfs...Boruwłaski lived to see his 98th year, despite the prediction of the money-lender who sold him his annuity that his small stature would make him prone to illness.[49]

    I love wikipedia.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 8,861

    In answer to your question, the last time the Tories lost two by elections on the same day was the 7th of November 1991 when the Tories lost Langbaurgh and Kincardine & Deeside to Labour and the Lib Dems respectively.

    I campaigned in that Kincardine & Deeside by-election. Bumped into Donald Dewar and his team knocking doors: their vote dropped 8 points. Our candidate was the lovely Allan Macartney, who went on to be an MEP.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 52,281
    The i newspaper is saying the dissent about Boris is spreading to cabinet ministers

    Who is going to be the first to break ranks?

    Betting opportunities?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 40,468
    Arlene Foster becomes a Dame.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61644729
  • RogerRoger Posts: 16,603
    GIN1138 said:

    Roger said:

    I just got an email fro Owen Smith asking me for money. I'm not a Labour Party member but it was sent to me personally from the candidate for Wakefield. It said the usual donation was £13 which seemed modest so I sent it.

    It's a good idea to send personal emails to people you don't know. £13 to help remove Johnson is the least any of us can do and I'm sure plenty of other people will feel the same.

    (it asked if I'd ever been to Wakefield! Apparently its been abandoned)

    Owen who?
    Simon Lightwood introduced by Owen Smith. Have I been had?

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 50,781

    The i newspaper is saying the dissent about Boris is spreading to cabinet ministers

    Who is going to be the first to break ranks?

    Betting opportunities?

    Sunak should resign and try and seize the crown.

    What has he got to lose now?

    Of course, no one will do anything now until late on Sunday as it is Rex jubilee.

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 21,046

    Arlene Foster becomes a Dame.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61644729

    Oh no she doesn't!
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 8,861
    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    I just got an email fro Owen Smith asking me for money. I'm not a Labour Party member but it was sent to me personally from the candidate for Wakefield. It said the usual donation was £13 which seemed modest so I sent it.

    It's a good idea to send personal emails to people you don't know. £13 to help remove Johnson is the least any of us can do and I'm sure plenty of other people will feel the same.

    (it asked if I'd ever been to Wakefield! Apparently its been abandoned)

    How did they get your email address?
    I don't think Labour are very good at tidying up their contacts. I left the party 18 years ago, but still get occasional contact from them.
    I get regular e-mails from them.
    I have never once been a member or registered supporter.
    Scottish Labour are notorious for having grossly inaccurate voter data. Even seen them targeting the SNP candidate, her agent, the signatories on her nomination papers and the local SNP office-bearers. They really are a bit thick.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 40,468
    And Sheryl Sandberg is leaving Facebook. At one point people thought she would ultimately run for political office so maybe that's on the cards now, although her image has been tarnished by Facebook's problems.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61666340
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 75,513

    The i newspaper is saying the dissent about Boris is spreading to cabinet ministers

    Who is going to be the first to break ranks?

    Betting opportunities?

    It would have to be someone who thinks they have a chance to retaining their position (or even improving it). But a truly big name probably wouldn't dare as it would appear disloyal, and counterintuitively hinder their chances at one day getting the top job, so someone of middling position at best.

    So I'd say someone in the range of Kwarteng, Coffey, Zahawi or one of the Secs of State for Wales/Scotland/NI, though I don't know that any are actually even considered likely rebels.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 45,452
    edited June 1

    And Sheryl Sandberg is leaving Facebook. At one point people thought she would ultimately run for political office so maybe that's on the cards now, although her image has been tarnished by Facebook's problems.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61666340

    Nick Clegg moves one step closer to the throne...

    (For the avoidance of doubt, that was not a serious comment.)
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 22,452

    The i newspaper is saying the dissent about Boris is spreading to cabinet ministers

    Who is going to be the first to break ranks?

    Betting opportunities?

    Sunak should resign and try and seize the crown.

    What has he got to lose now?

    Of course, no one will do anything now until late on Sunday as it is Rex jubilee.

    About 5 months too late to do that.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 16,603

    Roger said:

    I just got an email fro Owen Smith asking me for money. I'm not a Labour Party member but it was sent to me personally from the candidate for Wakefield. It said the usual donation was £13 which seemed modest so I sent it.

    It's a good idea to send personal emails to people you don't know. £13 to help remove Johnson is the least any of us can do and I'm sure plenty of other people will feel the same.

    (it asked if I'd ever been to Wakefield! Apparently its been abandoned)

    How did they get your email address?
    I'm not sure. Could be from anywhere I suppose. It was definitely authentic and it was only £13
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 6,970

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If you want personal banking, then you can always pay for it. People vote with their feet, for the cheaper option.

    I've seen some stats, and 98% of in branch visits can be done over the phone or online.

    Given how pre pandemic branch footfall has dropped, a branch may only have a dozen queries a week can be done in branch, that's uneconomical.

    Post Offices are picking up the slack.
    Plenty of elderly people are not online, especially those on lower incomes and after you have spent an age getting through bank phone security you waste double the time you could have spent had you actually spoken to someone in person at the bank
    Tough, running branches costs money, if it is uneconomical then the banks will have to do what is best for them not for a handful of customers.
    It is perfectly economical to have 1 bank branch in all reasonably sized towns. Epping only has 1 bank left and they are cutting them in Loughton too.

    As a Conservative not a free market Libertarian like you the banks slashing their number of branches is something I firmly oppose
    You espouse socialism.
    No traditional Conservativism ie respect for tradition and the local community. I am not proposing nationalising all the banks permanently which a socialist would do
    Traditional Conservatism is all about letting businesses operate without needless interference from the state.
    No, that is traditional classical liberalism, hence you now vote LD not Tory
    I think you should consider yourself put in your place now @TheScreamingEagles :smiley:
    The funny thing is that if Boris Johnson is replaced in the next few weeks and the new leader goes for my kind of policies then HYUFD will reboot and declare those policies true Conservatism.
    That is a certainty
    The exact same can be said of @NickPalmer, who has managed to be a sworn Blairite and a faithful Corbynite

    PB has its party loyalists, who always salute the flag. There is possibly something noble in it
    Parties reboot, in the space of a decade we went from the Tory leadership still supporting section 28 and opposing same sex adoption to introducing same sex marriage.
    Misleading to say that without pointing out that Conservative MPs voted against it. Tory PM, but with Labour and Lib Dem votes. Well done Cameron, but also fuck the bigots on the back benches.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 21,046

    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    I just got an email fro Owen Smith asking me for money. I'm not a Labour Party member but it was sent to me personally from the candidate for Wakefield. It said the usual donation was £13 which seemed modest so I sent it.

    It's a good idea to send personal emails to people you don't know. £13 to help remove Johnson is the least any of us can do and I'm sure plenty of other people will feel the same.

    (it asked if I'd ever been to Wakefield! Apparently its been abandoned)

    How did they get your email address?
    I don't think Labour are very good at tidying up their contacts. I left the party 18 years ago, but still get occasional contact from them.
    I get regular e-mails from them.
    I have never once been a member or registered supporter.
    Scottish Labour are notorious for having grossly inaccurate voter data. Even seen them targeting the SNP candidate, her agent, the signatories on her nomination papers and the local SNP office-bearers. They really are a bit thick.
    Although. Having never been a member, but a voter, it could be argued that's super efficient targeting of me!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 45,452

    And Sheryl Sandberg is leaving Facebook. At one point people thought she would ultimately run for political office so maybe that's on the cards now, although her image has been tarnished by Facebook's problems.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61666340

    She was dating the CEO of Activision, so between them they'll have a couple of billion to enjoy.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 41,101

    Arlene Foster becomes a Dame.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61644729

    House of Lords = House of Unelected Has-Beens!
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 5,965
    dixiedean said:

    First story on World Tonight.
    Am I the only one who doesn't give a monkey's about Depp v Heard?

    No
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 10,475
    The odds on the LDs look too short to me but you have to grant that they've done the difficult and most important bit of their campaign - they have established themselves as the challenge to the Conservatives, despite finishing behind Labour at the previous GE.

    They've already cast this as a two-horse race in which they are one of the two.

    They should win or go very close.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 16,603

    kle4 said:

    EPG said:

    I have no idea what drives Tories to vote LD

    Instinctual aversion to voting Labour meaning no other alternative, NIMBYism, and a dash of conservative liberalism.
    Knowing that Socialism was tried and failed, so only thicko’s want to try again, and utter despair at Boris unConservative car crash of a government. Barely a week goes by without Boris government doing some Populist that’s utterly unConservative. He’s not come to praise Conservatism, but to bury it.
    "Knowing that Socialism was tried and failed, so only thicko’s want to try again"

    What on earth are you talking about?
    You ask a good question! I'm looking forward to the answer
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 10,475
    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    I just got an email fro Owen Smith asking me for money. I'm not a Labour Party member but it was sent to me personally from the candidate for Wakefield. It said the usual donation was £13 which seemed modest so I sent it.

    It's a good idea to send personal emails to people you don't know. £13 to help remove Johnson is the least any of us can do and I'm sure plenty of other people will feel the same.

    (it asked if I'd ever been to Wakefield! Apparently its been abandoned)

    How did they get your email address?
    I'm not sure. Could be from anywhere I suppose. It was definitely authentic and it was only £13
    Mike Smithson probably gave it to them. ;)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 99,160
    Andy_JS said:

    pigeon said:

    GIN1138 said:

    General Election 2024: Jermey Hunt Vs Keith Starmer - Dull And Duller!

    However, after everything that's happened in recent years, a lengthy period of grey managerialism and instantly forgettable leadership might prove very welcome.
    I agree. I think Jeremy Hunt would win that particular match-up fairly easily, (although I wouldn't vote for either of their parties).
    Unless Hunt won back the redwall despite Boris going then he can hold every seat in Surrey but Starmer still becomes PM.

    If you want dull but competent Wallace is the best bet
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 5,877
    Cookie said:

    kle4 said:

    EPG said:

    I have no idea what drives Tories to vote LD

    Instinctual aversion to voting Labour meaning no other alternative, NIMBYism, and a dash of conservative liberalism.
    Knowing that Socialism was tried and failed, so only thicko’s want to try again, and utter despair at Boris unConservative car crash of a government. Barely a week goes by without Boris government doing some Populist that’s utterly unConservative. He’s not come to praise Conservatism, but to bury it.
    Yes, to those of us whose instinct is to be sceptical of state intervention, it's not instinctively obvious that the Conservative Party is more in line with our thinking than the Lib Dems. Especially given the two parties' records on covid.
    But even the current Tory Party is probably still less keen on state intervention than Labour.
    They have just walked into the market, pointed at someone just back in profit and moderate profit compared to some, screamed “your profit is not deserved!” And windfall taxed them because a focus group told them to do it.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 6,970
    dixiedean said:

    First story on World Tonight.
    Am I the only one who doesn't give a monkey's about Depp v Heard?

    I literally have no idea who alleged what about whom. I know that Depp is an actor, I don't know who Herd is. I have the oddest feeling even that scant information is more than I need to know but I'm happy to take advice on why I should care if I'm wrong.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 16,603

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    I just got an email fro Owen Smith asking me for money. I'm not a Labour Party member but it was sent to me personally from the candidate for Wakefield. It said the usual donation was £13 which seemed modest so I sent it.

    It's a good idea to send personal emails to people you don't know. £13 to help remove Johnson is the least any of us can do and I'm sure plenty of other people will feel the same.

    (it asked if I'd ever been to Wakefield! Apparently its been abandoned)

    How did they get your email address?
    I'm not sure. Could be from anywhere I suppose. It was definitely authentic and it was only £13
    Mike Smithson probably gave it to them. ;)
    I'll have to share his winnings!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 21,007
    Roger said:

    kle4 said:

    EPG said:

    I have no idea what drives Tories to vote LD

    Instinctual aversion to voting Labour meaning no other alternative, NIMBYism, and a dash of conservative liberalism.
    Knowing that Socialism was tried and failed, so only thicko’s want to try again, and utter despair at Boris unConservative car crash of a government. Barely a week goes by without Boris government doing some Populist that’s utterly unConservative. He’s not come to praise Conservatism, but to bury it.
    "Knowing that Socialism was tried and failed, so only thicko’s want to try again"

    What on earth are you talking about?
    You ask a good question! I'm looking forward to the answer
    Don't hold your breath.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 75,513
    Farooq said:

    dixiedean said:

    First story on World Tonight.
    Am I the only one who doesn't give a monkey's about Depp v Heard?

    I literally have no idea who alleged what about whom. I know that Depp is an actor, I don't know who Herd is. I have the oddest feeling even that scant information is more than I need to know but I'm happy to take advice on why I should care if I'm wrong.
    No one needs to care. It was entertainment, many enjoy celeb gossip after all. Not my cup of tea, but it's not like there's anything grand about not being interested in it either.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 6,970
    kle4 said:

    Farooq said:

    dixiedean said:

    First story on World Tonight.
    Am I the only one who doesn't give a monkey's about Depp v Heard?

    I literally have no idea who alleged what about whom. I know that Depp is an actor, I don't know who Herd is. I have the oddest feeling even that scant information is more than I need to know but I'm happy to take advice on why I should care if I'm wrong.
    No one needs to care. It was entertainment, many enjoy celeb gossip after all. Not my cup of tea, but it's not like there's anything grand about not being interested in it either.
    So not legally interesting?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 50,781
    Farooq said:

    dixiedean said:

    First story on World Tonight.
    Am I the only one who doesn't give a monkey's about Depp v Heard?

    I literally have no idea who alleged what about whom. I know that Depp is an actor, I don't know who Herd is. I have the oddest feeling even that scant information is more than I need to know but I'm happy to take advice on why I should care if I'm wrong.
    Heard is also an actor.

    They met on the set of The Rum Diary, which I think is a totally brilliant film despite what the critics seem to think.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 32,412
    dixiedean said:

    Arlene Foster becomes a Dame.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61644729

    Oh no she doesn't!
    Her career? Its behind her...
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 17,159

    Arlene Foster becomes a Dame.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61644729

    House of Lords = House of Unelected Has-Beens!
    Damehoods are not peerages
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 642
    kle4 said:

    Farooq said:

    dixiedean said:

    First story on World Tonight.
    Am I the only one who doesn't give a monkey's about Depp v Heard?

    I literally have no idea who alleged what about whom. I know that Depp is an actor, I don't know who Herd is. I have the oddest feeling even that scant information is more than I need to know but I'm happy to take advice on why I should care if I'm wrong.
    No one needs to care. It was entertainment, many enjoy celeb gossip after all. Not my cup of tea, but it's not like there's anything grand about not being interested in it either.
    I became briefly amused when I learned she had taken a dump in his bed and blamed it on the dog. But I have not followed it since.

    It is being touted by some as the pendulum swinging back - a #MeToo too far. No idea if this is the truth.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 1,648
    rcs1000 said:

    And Sheryl Sandberg is leaving Facebook. At one point people thought she would ultimately run for political office so maybe that's on the cards now, although her image has been tarnished by Facebook's problems.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61666340

    Nick Clegg moves one step closer to the throne...

    (For the avoidance of doubt, that was not a serious comment.)
    Cawdor, Glamis, Deputy PM...
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 2,799
    Farooq said:

    dixiedean said:

    First story on World Tonight.
    Am I the only one who doesn't give a monkey's about Depp v Heard?

    I literally have no idea who alleged what about whom. I know that Depp is an actor, I don't know who Herd is. I have the oddest feeling even that scant information is more than I need to know but I'm happy to take advice on why I should care if I'm wrong.
    Both are actors. Depp is the only good one.

    Ultimately it's a story about who abused who, and whether or not a woman can be an abuser (Hint, yes, anyone can). Amber Heard claimed Depp abused her, and it almost finished off his career. She effectively tried to have him cancelled.

    Now it's come out that, while neither of them were exactly perfect, she was the abusive one (cutting his finger off, defecating in his bed etc). Also a flagrant liar, claiming she donated millions from their divorce settlement to charity when she did not.

    A lot of men (and women) who have been in relationships with a manipulative partner who has been believed over them will be nodding and smiling this evening.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 5,877

    kle4 said:

    EPG said:

    I have no idea what drives Tories to vote LD

    Instinctual aversion to voting Labour meaning no other alternative, NIMBYism, and a dash of conservative liberalism.
    Knowing that Socialism was tried and failed, so only thicko’s want to try again, and utter despair at Boris unConservative car crash of a government. Barely a week goes by without Boris government doing some Populist that’s utterly unConservative. He’s not come to praise Conservatism, but to bury it.
    "Knowing that Socialism was tried and failed, so only thicko’s want to try again"

    What on earth are you talking about?
    image

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1xJoWzPZGjY
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 41,101
    IshmaelZ said:

    Arlene Foster becomes a Dame.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61644729

    House of Lords = House of Unelected Has-Beens!
    Damehoods are not peerages
    "Of course, of course! Must be the booze!"

    "But you don't drink, Sunil."

    "Oh, yeah!"
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 6,970

    In answer to your question, the last time the Tories lost two by elections on the same day was the 7th of November 1991 when the Tories lost Langbaurgh and Kincardine & Deeside to Labour and the Lib Dems respectively.

    The successor seat to K&D is West Aberdeenshire & Kincadine. In 1997, three candidates were called Smith, Kynoch, and Khan, which is quite a Laboury sounding lineup.

    The Lib Dems held it with Robert Smith, until the Disintegration of the Lib Dem vote in 2015. It's now held by Bowie, but I doubt things will be Hunky Dory for him at the next election with his majority being just 843
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 21,046
    edited June 1
    IshmaelZ said:

    Arlene Foster becomes a Dame.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61644729

    House of Lords = House of Unelected Has-Beens!
    Damehoods are not peerages
    We'll shortly find out she was a Barry Humphries character all along.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 16,603

    kle4 said:

    EPG said:

    I have no idea what drives Tories to vote LD

    Instinctual aversion to voting Labour meaning no other alternative, NIMBYism, and a dash of conservative liberalism.
    Knowing that Socialism was tried and failed, so only thicko’s want to try again, and utter despair at Boris unConservative car crash of a government. Barely a week goes by without Boris government doing some Populist that’s utterly unConservative. He’s not come to praise Conservatism, but to bury it.
    "Knowing that Socialism was tried and failed, so only thicko’s want to try again"

    What on earth are you talking about?
    image

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1xJoWzPZGjY
    The plot thickens!
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 1,648
    Farooq said:

    In answer to your question, the last time the Tories lost two by elections on the same day was the 7th of November 1991 when the Tories lost Langbaurgh and Kincardine & Deeside to Labour and the Lib Dems respectively.

    The successor seat to K&D is West Aberdeenshire & Kincadine. In 1997, three candidates were called Smith, Kynoch, and Khan, which is quite a Laboury sounding lineup.

    The Lib Dems held it with Robert Smith, until the Disintegration of the Lib Dem vote in 2015. It's now held by Bowie, but I doubt things will be Hunky Dory for him at the next election with his majority being just 843
    Is he their star man?
This discussion has been closed.