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Johnson trails Starmer by some margin on favourability – politicalbetting.com

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  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    "lurching from one side of the aisle to the other is a sign of strength"
    🛒
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,002
    edited May 2022

    Is that pensioner £300 payment to all pensioners?

    Anyone born on or before 26th September 1955 receives between £100 and £300 winter fuel allowance so I assume the £300 will be added to these figures
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    How can this be, given that the Prime Minister continues to insist that he has not said anything untrue? https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1529787156436328448

    There are two explanations: either @BorisJohnson is admitting lying to journalists, in which case presumably this will be the front page of tomorrow’s Mail.

    Or the spokesman is admitting making things up on his own. In which case why has the PM not issued a correction earlier?

    https://twitter.com/BarristerSecret/status/1529794104913166336
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,145
    edited May 2022
    dixiedean said:

    Shit economics, but potentially good politics. Not sure.

    My bet on next PM might not be lost afterall.

    But its shit economics. He doesn't deserve to be PM.

    It's a lot of money being handed out in the middle of an inflation crisis. My impression is that this strategy does not have a good success rate.

    Money handed out should have been strictly limited to those in dire need. All the rest is just more fuel for the inflationary fire.
    Worse.
    Many of the recipients of the £400 will be spending it like Leon. In Greece or somewhere.
    At least benefit claimants will prop up the local shops.
    I rather think a lot of the money will go straight back to the energy companies from the poor, and the not that very poor. It'll be interesting to see what Martin Lewis has to say.
  • Foxy said:

    Looks like Sunak agrees with me that if inflation is being driven by external forces, then there is not a high risk of a wage inflation spiral. Indeed the prospect of economic downturn due to excessive reduced demand because of suppression of discretionary consumer demand is quite high.

    Wage inflation is going to be a massive problem in the UK IMO. There are huge sections of industry that cannot find staff, so job seekers that have the right skills are becoming more demanding and existing employees are insisting on higher pay or the inference is that they will bugger off. It is cheaper to hike someone's pay than lose a key member of staff. The public sector will no doubt suffer similar pressure and industrial disputes.
    What you consider a problem, others consider desirable of course.

    So long as the wage inflation is due to supply and demand market economics at a time of full employment, as opposed to unions, strikes and politics while millions languish unemployed, then market driven pay rises are a good thing for those that get them.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,574
    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    A fairly damning editorial on Boris from the Speccie. That will sting. He’s the ex editor and it’s probably his favourite read (he is much more a Spectator person than a telegraph man). He’s quite right to admire it, of course, it has truly great writers

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/boris-johnsons-guilt

    At the end it just about gives him one more chance, but it is withering

    THanks for that - interedsting.

    "Johnson has further opened himself to charges of hypocrisy through his confected fury about his former spokeswoman Allegra Stratton, who resigned after being caught on camera making light of the parties that were being held in No. 10. There is no suggestion that she broke any rules. She was poking fun at the absurdity of the law and of being asked to defend such a ridiculous situation.

    Her laughter, Johnson declared, had caused national anger – an anger that he said he shared. He was shocked – shocked! – to find any such behaviour was happening in No. 10. Stratton resigned on principle, the only person in No. 10 to have done so."
    Pretty well what we said here at the time.

    'Just about gives him one more chance' isn't withering; it's pathetic.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,013
    dixiedean said:

    Shit economics, but potentially good politics. Not sure.

    My bet on next PM might not be lost afterall.

    But its shit economics. He doesn't deserve to be PM.

    It's a lot of money being handed out in the middle of an inflation crisis. My impression is that this strategy does not have a good success rate.

    Money handed out should have been strictly limited to those in dire need. All the rest is just more fuel for the inflationary fire.
    Worse.
    Many of the recipients of the £400 will be spending it like Leon. In Greece or somewhere.
    At least benefit claimants will prop up the local shops.
    The latter point isn't a bad thing. People on the lowest incomes spend most money locally. Which boosts the local economy. If we give £400 to the richest where does that go?
  • boulayboulay Posts: 3,773
    Dura_Ace said:

    boulay said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    "How's Carrie" trending on twitter for some reason.

    "I see 'How's Carrie' is trending due to rumours she has left Johnson and is shacked up with racist posh boy Zak Goldsmith. no idea if this is true or not."

    https://twitter.com/driandunce/status/1529747308874711042
    We better have a whip 'round to fund some new wallpaper in that case.
    There would be a lovely scene if Boris returns from parliament to No 10 and find Carrie has packed and gone. Evening arrives and he stumbles to the fridge and all that’s in there is a can of beer and a microwave curry.
    He wouldn't give a toss. He'd be fingerblasting the mustard hole of the first Sloaney spad he could get his hands on within hours.
    You are truly the Barbara Cartland de nos jours.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981
    Scott_xP said:

    Rishi Sunak on windfall tax U-turn: 'Being able to change course is not a weakness, it's a strength'

    Ditch your fucking leader then...

    Why? We all knew before he got the job that he was a self-interested, narcissist who had been fired for lying and whose main interests appeared to be shagging, self-promotion and raking in as much money as he could get his hands on.

    We knew all that. The Tories knew that. The Tory membership knew that.

    And they elected him anyway.

    So a lying f**kwit got the job, No.10 has been reduced to a mad bacchanalia that feels it is above the law and many supporters on here are shameless enough to support this charlatan.

    It is a disgrace, but the bigger disgrace is that it is permitted to continue
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,836
    Carnyx said:

    dixiedean said:

    Shit economics, but potentially good politics. Not sure.

    My bet on next PM might not be lost afterall.

    But its shit economics. He doesn't deserve to be PM.

    It's a lot of money being handed out in the middle of an inflation crisis. My impression is that this strategy does not have a good success rate.

    Money handed out should have been strictly limited to those in dire need. All the rest is just more fuel for the inflationary fire.
    Worse.
    Many of the recipients of the £400 will be spending it like Leon. In Greece or somewhere.
    At least benefit claimants will prop up the local shops.
    I rather think a lot of the money will go straight back to the energy companies from the poor, and not that very poor. It'll be interesting to see what Martin Lewis has to say.
    It would have done anyways. It's just that there is now £400 which can be re-circulated in the economy.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,620
    edited May 2022
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,145
    boulay said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    boulay said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    "How's Carrie" trending on twitter for some reason.

    "I see 'How's Carrie' is trending due to rumours she has left Johnson and is shacked up with racist posh boy Zak Goldsmith. no idea if this is true or not."

    https://twitter.com/driandunce/status/1529747308874711042
    We better have a whip 'round to fund some new wallpaper in that case.
    There would be a lovely scene if Boris returns from parliament to No 10 and find Carrie has packed and gone. Evening arrives and he stumbles to the fridge and all that’s in there is a can of beer and a microwave curry.
    He wouldn't give a toss. He'd be fingerblasting the mustard hole of the first Sloaney spad he could get his hands on within hours.
    You are truly the Barbara Cartland de nos jours.
    Yes, it's the Sloane Ranger bit that is indicative.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,232
    edited May 2022

    Foxy said:

    Looks like Sunak agrees with me that if inflation is being driven by external forces, then there is not a high risk of a wage inflation spiral. Indeed the prospect of economic downturn due to excessive reduced demand because of suppression of discretionary consumer demand is quite high.

    Wage inflation is going to be a massive problem in the UK IMO. There are huge sections of industry that cannot find staff, so job seekers that have the right skills are becoming more demanding and existing employees are insisting on higher pay or the inference is that they will bugger off. It is cheaper to hike someone's pay than lose a key member of staff. The public sector will no doubt suffer similar pressure and industrial disputes.
    What you consider a problem, others consider desirable of course.

    So long as the wage inflation is due to supply and demand market economics at a time of full employment, as opposed to unions, strikes and politics while millions languish unemployed, then market driven pay rises are a good thing for those that get them.
    Problem is that by far the biggest chunk of our market is Europe. They now have the inexpensive labour; we don't. Brexit is a kind of weird inversion of Thatcherism, a weird kind of socialism.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,145
    dixiedean said:

    Carnyx said:

    dixiedean said:

    Shit economics, but potentially good politics. Not sure.

    My bet on next PM might not be lost afterall.

    But its shit economics. He doesn't deserve to be PM.

    It's a lot of money being handed out in the middle of an inflation crisis. My impression is that this strategy does not have a good success rate.

    Money handed out should have been strictly limited to those in dire need. All the rest is just more fuel for the inflationary fire.
    Worse.
    Many of the recipients of the £400 will be spending it like Leon. In Greece or somewhere.
    At least benefit claimants will prop up the local shops.
    I rather think a lot of the money will go straight back to the energy companies from the poor, and not that very poor. It'll be interesting to see what Martin Lewis has to say.
    It would have done anyways. It's just that there is now £400 which can be re-circulated in the economy.
    True, but it will mean that some folk are more able to spend money on heating and lighting than theyt would otherwise, so the energy utes will get some of it. And the less wealthy will spend the rest locally to a high degree, as noted.
  • StereodogStereodog Posts: 395
    Nigelb said:

    .

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    One for @Heathener

    Last Night in Sivota. Literally. I am now checking out and moving on. The nomadic life continues…

    I'm also abroad atm and moving from place to place using only my native wit and a credit card.
    Looking forward to your daily travelblog.
    Well I'm going to the WW1 cemetery at Ypres today.
    It's a humbling thing. There are 55,000 names on the Menin Gate. But that's not the number of men killed in a war. It's not even the number of men killed in a campaign. It's just the number of men killed in a campaign whose bodies they couldn't find. No, it's not even that, because they ran out of space and had to continue the list at Tyne Cot (35,000 names). Incomprehensible.
    At the risk of getting the maths wrong, British men killed 887,858, divided by number of days the war lasted (1581) gives 560 killed a day for 4 years and 4 months. And that ignores injuries, many of which were horrific. And that's just us.

    Germany lost around 2 million, France 1.4 Million.

    On a flippant aside, you can see why there were so many unmarried aunts back in the 20's and 30's.

    Horrific.
    Europe has never truly recovered from World War 1

    Eg Russia is a shit-show now because of what happened in 1914-1917. The Great War also led pretty directly to Hitler and Nazism

    There is a good argument for saying World War 1 is the greatest avoidable tragedy in human history
    The conditions which created it weren’t, though.
    How likely is it that the clashing imperialisms and nationalisms would not still have led to mass conflict, even if it had been avoided in 1914 ?
    I understand all that, I’ve read the books. The Fashoda incident. Etc

    I just can’t buy a vision of human nature that says we had no choice but to wage a war that would kill 10m people for no obvious gain or reason and which would make the world a vastly sadder place, and which paved the way for Lenin, Stalin and Hitler. And then Mao

    Maybe it’s the cheery Boris-tolerating optimist in me, and I am sadly misguided. I’d rather be that than a desolating fatalist
    I'm not a fatalist - WWI was not inevitable - but appeals to human nature are unpersuasive when you consider the nature of the regimes around Europe at the time - and the fact that wars of conquest hadn't the same taboos attached as they do now.

    Human nature is corruptible, and for every cosmopolitan Vienna, with its cultural flowering, or pragmatic seeker of stability like Britain, there was an imperial Germany or Russia.

    The Russia you wrote of earlier is not the result of WWI - its nature has not massively changed since the Tsars.
    I think some kind of European war was inevitable. The French were itching to try and erase the effects of the Franco-Prussian War and recapture Alsace-Lorraine. The Germans were equally desperate to retain dominance over France. The Austro Hungarian Empire would have had to do something to put down the nascent nationalist movements within it's borders which would have angered other powers. Britain's involvement however was not inevitable. The Liberal Government was temperamentally and ideologically disinclined to intervene and would never have done so unless Belgium's neutrality was violated. That was the NATO like red line where to do nothing would have meant that all international treaties would become worthless.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,089
    edited May 2022

    It truly is shit politics by Bonzo. Can't help people. Its their fault. Would hard BP. Unconservative. Can't afford it. Labour want to tax business. Oh ok, lets do it and expect people will forget the months we spent saying no.

    It is many things but I can’t really say it’s shit politics. People don’t remember who-said-what at election time, they just remember what governments did. Blair understood this - he was particularly good at co-opting bits of Tory policy he thought would sell well.

    Yes, but... He (wisely) didn't engage with the Tory argument, working on their ground. He would cherry pick what he wanted out of Tory policy, having seen how it played out in focus groups, then derided *the rest of it*.

    ETA: Using the apparatus of government and civil service to analyse and refine the policy first. The boring hard work the Tories don't seem to bother with any more.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,836

    dixiedean said:

    Shit economics, but potentially good politics. Not sure.

    My bet on next PM might not be lost afterall.

    But its shit economics. He doesn't deserve to be PM.

    It's a lot of money being handed out in the middle of an inflation crisis. My impression is that this strategy does not have a good success rate.

    Money handed out should have been strictly limited to those in dire need. All the rest is just more fuel for the inflationary fire.
    Worse.
    Many of the recipients of the £400 will be spending it like Leon. In Greece or somewhere.
    At least benefit claimants will prop up the local shops.
    The latter point isn't a bad thing. People on the lowest incomes spend most money locally. Which boosts the local economy. If we give £400 to the richest where does that go?
    Yes. It's marginal propensity to spend in the UK. Multiplier.
    Pure Keynesianism.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,878
    dixiedean said:

    £5 bn raised. £15bn spent.

    True, but will the revenue not have been inflated by the higher prices too? Probably a bit of lee way in there.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Dura_Ace said:

    boulay said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    "How's Carrie" trending on twitter for some reason.

    "I see 'How's Carrie' is trending due to rumours she has left Johnson and is shacked up with racist posh boy Zak Goldsmith. no idea if this is true or not."

    https://twitter.com/driandunce/status/1529747308874711042
    We better have a whip 'round to fund some new wallpaper in that case.
    There would be a lovely scene if Boris returns from parliament to No 10 and find Carrie has packed and gone. Evening arrives and he stumbles to the fridge and all that’s in there is a can of beer and a microwave curry.
    He wouldn't give a toss. He'd be fingerblasting the mustard hole of the first Sloaney spad he could get his hands on within hours.
    Already sorted, he is drunk with totty in tow in the Newsnight clip last night
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,279
    Interesting New Statesman article about Labour's bad result in Harrow at this month's local elections.

    "How Labour lost the Indian vote
    Attacking Rishi Sunak’s elitist background goes down badly with affluent, ambitious, nostalgic Hindus.
    By Kavya Kaushik"

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/labour/2022/05/how-labour-lost-indian-vote-2022-local-elections
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    We seem to have a Labour government led by Boris Johnson. Curious.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,585
    edited May 2022

    dixiedean said:

    £5 bn raised. £9bn spent.

    £15 billion apparently, and with existing £22 billion the total is £37 billion
    Are these figures anything but numbers plucked from thin air?

    Ooh Simon Jack has just suggested this to be the case on R4 WATO too.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,620
    Stereodog said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    One for @Heathener

    Last Night in Sivota. Literally. I am now checking out and moving on. The nomadic life continues…

    I'm also abroad atm and moving from place to place using only my native wit and a credit card.
    Looking forward to your daily travelblog.
    Well I'm going to the WW1 cemetery at Ypres today.
    It's a humbling thing. There are 55,000 names on the Menin Gate. But that's not the number of men killed in a war. It's not even the number of men killed in a campaign. It's just the number of men killed in a campaign whose bodies they couldn't find. No, it's not even that, because they ran out of space and had to continue the list at Tyne Cot (35,000 names). Incomprehensible.
    At the risk of getting the maths wrong, British men killed 887,858, divided by number of days the war lasted (1581) gives 560 killed a day for 4 years and 4 months. And that ignores injuries, many of which were horrific. And that's just us.

    Germany lost around 2 million, France 1.4 Million.

    On a flippant aside, you can see why there were so many unmarried aunts back in the 20's and 30's.

    Horrific.
    Europe has never truly recovered from World War 1

    Eg Russia is a shit-show now because of what happened in 1914-1917. The Great War also led pretty directly to Hitler and Nazism

    There is a good argument for saying World War 1 is the greatest avoidable tragedy in human history
    The conditions which created it weren’t, though.
    How likely is it that the clashing imperialisms and nationalisms would not still have led to mass conflict, even if it had been avoided in 1914 ?
    I understand all that, I’ve read the books. The Fashoda incident. Etc

    I just can’t buy a vision of human nature that says we had no choice but to wage a war that would kill 10m people for no obvious gain or reason and which would make the world a vastly sadder place, and which paved the way for Lenin, Stalin and Hitler. And then Mao

    Maybe it’s the cheery Boris-tolerating optimist in me, and I am sadly misguided. I’d rather be that than a desolating fatalist
    I'm not a fatalist - WWI was not inevitable - but appeals to human nature are unpersuasive when you consider the nature of the regimes around Europe at the time - and the fact that wars of conquest hadn't the same taboos attached as they do now.

    Human nature is corruptible, and for every cosmopolitan Vienna, with its cultural flowering, or pragmatic seeker of stability like Britain, there was an imperial Germany or Russia.

    The Russia you wrote of earlier is not the result of WWI - its nature has not massively changed since the Tsars.
    I think some kind of European war was inevitable. The French were itching to try and erase the effects of the Franco-Prussian War and recapture Alsace-Lorraine. The Germans were equally desperate to retain dominance over France. The Austro Hungarian Empire would have had to do something to put down the nascent nationalist movements within it's borders which would have angered other powers. Britain's involvement however was not inevitable. The Liberal Government was temperamentally and ideologically disinclined to intervene and would never have done so unless Belgium's neutrality was violated. That was the NATO like red line where to do nothing would have meant that all international treaties would become worthless.
    The first rule of French Revanche Club was

    1) Don't *start* the next war

    When the Germans mobilised, the French response was to withdraw from their immediate frontier to the fortified lines , inside France.

    Everyone knew this. The German place was based upon it.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 3,773
    Carnyx said:

    boulay said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    boulay said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    "How's Carrie" trending on twitter for some reason.

    "I see 'How's Carrie' is trending due to rumours she has left Johnson and is shacked up with racist posh boy Zak Goldsmith. no idea if this is true or not."

    https://twitter.com/driandunce/status/1529747308874711042
    We better have a whip 'round to fund some new wallpaper in that case.
    There would be a lovely scene if Boris returns from parliament to No 10 and find Carrie has packed and gone. Evening arrives and he stumbles to the fridge and all that’s in there is a can of beer and a microwave curry.
    He wouldn't give a toss. He'd be fingerblasting the mustard hole of the first Sloaney spad he could get his hands on within hours.
    You are truly the Barbara Cartland de nos jours.
    Yes, it's the Sloane Ranger bit that is indicative.
    It was the reference to finger-bashing that gave it away, lifted from Dame Barbara’s classic “the scarecrow world-king” about a brilliant man trapped inside the body of a scarecrow with messy straw hair and scruffy old clothes who can only be saved by a woman of pure heart.

    He has to go through many women until he finds the “one” and like the prince in Cinderella trying the glass slipper for size on all and sundry he knows she’s the one when his finger fits her “mustard hole”.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,248
    dixiedean said:

    Shit economics, but potentially good politics. Not sure.

    My bet on next PM might not be lost afterall.

    But its shit economics. He doesn't deserve to be PM.

    It's a lot of money being handed out in the middle of an inflation crisis. My impression is that this strategy does not have a good success rate.

    Money handed out should have been strictly limited to those in dire need. All the rest is just more fuel for the inflationary fire.
    Worse.
    Many of the recipients of the £400 will be spending it like Leon. In Greece or somewhere.
    At least benefit claimants will prop up the local shops.
    TBH I think they’re spending it already in Parga

    A lot of beauty hating, hymn booing, Queen-killing Scousers here. Ugh. Let’s hope they lose to Real
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981

    We seem to have a Labour government led by Boris Johnson. Curious.

    I doubt that any Labour govt has ever been this fiscally irresponsible
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,067

    Foxy said:

    Looks like Sunak agrees with me that if inflation is being driven by external forces, then there is not a high risk of a wage inflation spiral. Indeed the prospect of economic downturn due to excessive reduced demand because of suppression of discretionary consumer demand is quite high.

    Wage inflation is going to be a massive problem in the UK IMO. There are huge sections of industry that cannot find staff, so job seekers that have the right skills are becoming more demanding and existing employees are insisting on higher pay or the inference is that they will bugger off. It is cheaper to hike someone's pay than lose a key member of staff. The public sector will no doubt suffer similar pressure and industrial disputes.
    What you consider a problem, others consider desirable of course.

    So long as the wage inflation is due to supply and demand market economics at a time of full employment, as opposed to unions, strikes and politics while millions languish unemployed, then market driven pay rises are a good thing for those that get them.
    Problem is that by far the biggest chunk of our market is Europe. They now have the inexpensive labour; we don't. Brexit is a kind of weird inversion of Thatcherism, a weird kind of socialism.
    Quite a drop off in our car production. Down by 50% since the Brexit vote, and still going down.

    UK Risks Car Collapse as Jaguar Land Rover Looks Elsewhere for Batteries https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-26/uk-risks-car-collapse-as-jaguar-land-rover-looks-elsewhere-for-batteries
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,841
    edited May 2022

    We seem to have a Labour government led by Boris Johnson. Curious.

    Its very strange. The cash will be useful though.
    I think an overlooked aspect of this will be uprating benefits by cpi in Sept and the triple lock. Its baking in 'support' through end 2023 or rather giving a longer term buffer to criticism of not supporting the vulnerable and pensioners. Elecctorally quite key.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,013
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Looks like Sunak agrees with me that if inflation is being driven by external forces, then there is not a high risk of a wage inflation spiral. Indeed the prospect of economic downturn due to excessive reduced demand because of suppression of discretionary consumer demand is quite high.

    Wage inflation is going to be a massive problem in the UK IMO. There are huge sections of industry that cannot find staff, so job seekers that have the right skills are becoming more demanding and existing employees are insisting on higher pay or the inference is that they will bugger off. It is cheaper to hike someone's pay than lose a key member of staff. The public sector will no doubt suffer similar pressure and industrial disputes.
    What you consider a problem, others consider desirable of course.

    So long as the wage inflation is due to supply and demand market economics at a time of full employment, as opposed to unions, strikes and politics while millions languish unemployed, then market driven pay rises are a good thing for those that get them.
    Problem is that by far the biggest chunk of our market is Europe. They now have the inexpensive labour; we don't. Brexit is a kind of weird inversion of Thatcherism, a weird kind of socialism.
    Quite a drop off in our car production. Down by 50% since the Brexit vote, and still going down.

    UK Risks Car Collapse as Jaguar Land Rover Looks Elsewhere for Batteries https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-26/uk-risks-car-collapse-as-jaguar-land-rover-looks-elsewhere-for-batteries
    It does look terminal for the UK car industry. We don't own anything, we barely invest in anything, we're just not interested.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,279

    We seem to have a Labour government led by Boris Johnson. Curious.

    Maybe it'll be fiscal conservatives who finally end Johnson's leadership. People like John Redwood.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,009

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Provenance unknown...

    Breaking :
    Nazanin Ratcliffe may decide to stand as a parliamentary candidate in Johnson's Uxbridge & Ruislip Seat at the next General Election in order to get rid of Johnson once and for all !!

    https://twitter.com/Bluddybrilliant/status/1529759994601684995

    Another independent to split the Left vote?
    If Labour is smart they'll reach a Tatton type agreement here.
    Not good news for Boris, if so, but I'm not convinced that Nazanin would be a slam dunk in the way that Martin Bell was against Neil Hamilton. Yep, she has a grievance that may resonate a bit, but its essentially personal. Not sure voters will really go for it.
    They might. The story that Johnson's incompetence led to her longer than necessary incarceration might resonate
    I'm not sure its true though (or not the real reason her release was delayed). She was released entirely after the bribe (sorry debt) was settled. Johnson was an arse for saying what he did*, but I don't believe it cost her a minutes freedom.

    *I am probably totally wrong but one wonders where the stories of her activities comes from. Is she entirely innocent? (Probably - the Iranian's have almost certainly made shit up)
    More importantly, does she want everyone poring critically over her story, as would inevitably happen if she stands for office?

    As someone who’s lived abroad, and is well aware of the nuances around dual nationality, I think her case is a really bad one to use to bash the government. The British government, anyway.
    It's not so much nuance, then the following -

    1) If you are a dual national, in one of the countries that you have citizenship of, that country will treat you as a full citizen.
    2) You, almost certainly, don't have any consular rights to get help from any of the *other* countries you have citizenship for.

    Back in the day, when I worked for an oil company, there was a check internally about sending people with nationality to certain countries. Basically, the country in question might pull stuff on "their" nationals that they wouldn't try with foreigners.
    Indeed. In my mind it’s quite straightforward, but not necessarily in the minds of those who wish to uncritically bash Mr Johnson.

    There’s plenty not to like about the guy, and despite being critical of both this case and the birthday cake, I don’t particularly like him either.

    If you’re going to bash him and his government, then do so over tax rises, inflation and living costs - not over trivialities and things over which he has no control.
    He has control over what he says, surely. And if you think fundamental dishonesty is a triviality you are yourself profoundly corrupt.

    And the cost of living is actually not his fault and not something he has dealt with particularly badly.
    The cost of living is not his fault.

    The way he and Rishi chose to freeze tax thresholds so people would have less money from their work, increase taxation by 1.25% payable twice so 2.5% in total so people would have less money even nominally from their work, all while further feathering the welfare state for the elderly so that some people could get an inheritance they hadn't worked for on the other hand is his fault and was handling it badly.

    If he'd done nothing and just not raised NI that would have been a better way to resolve the cost of living issue, instead he added insult to injury and for that he deserves to go now.
    That's all within the bounds of stuff for which he deserves to lose an election. For lying to Parliament he deserves to go now and in disgrace. If you think that's a triviality, fine, but I would never enter into any sort of business transaction with you if that's the value you attach to honesty.
    I value integrity highly, but I don't believe he lied.

    I also don't believe "Sir Beer Korma" lied either, and even if he's fined, I still don't believe he did either.

    A lie means saying something you know to be untrue, and I don't for one second believe he thought that having sandwiches at work while being wished a happy birthday by his work colleagues was a "party". I don't for one second believe he thought saying farewell at work to a work colleague was a "party" either. And I don't believe for one second that Keir Starmer thought that having a Korma and a beer at the end of a day's campaigning was either.

    I don't see any lies, and if there's no lies, then he hasn't lied to Parliament. And that applies equally in my mind to both leaders who have both been accused of lying.
    Oh dear. I award you this weeks Gullible Fool of The Week Award aka Boris Johnson's Favourite Lapdog Award.
    Merited for being able to type "Sir Beer Korma" without dying of shame before ----- aarrrrggh!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038

    dixiedean said:

    Shit economics, but potentially good politics. Not sure.

    My bet on next PM might not be lost afterall.

    But its shit economics. He doesn't deserve to be PM.

    It's a lot of money being handed out in the middle of an inflation crisis. My impression is that this strategy does not have a good success rate.

    Money handed out should have been strictly limited to those in dire need. All the rest is just more fuel for the inflationary fire.
    Worse.
    Many of the recipients of the £400 will be spending it like Leon. In Greece or somewhere.
    At least benefit claimants will prop up the local shops.
    The latter point isn't a bad thing. People on the lowest incomes spend most money locally. Which boosts the local economy. If we give £400 to the richest where does that go?
    The £400 isn't being given to @leon though. It is being given to the energy company to discount against his bill. So, yes, he'll (and the rest of us) will be £400 richer than we would have been this autumn but we wont actually see the cash. I doubt many people will say, oh well, I was going to have to pay £2000 for energy next winter, but now it will only be £1600, so I'll take in a weekend away.

  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    How contemptible is the new Labour minority Edinburgh Council administration?

    They got more votes from Lib Dem councillors than they did from Labour councillors to form the admin.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,585
    edited May 2022

    We seem to have a Labour government led by Boris Johnson. Curious.

    Labour or Corbynomics government?

    It is a redistribution package, so not to be sniffed at.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    edited May 2022
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Looks like Sunak agrees with me that if inflation is being driven by external forces, then there is not a high risk of a wage inflation spiral. Indeed the prospect of economic downturn due to excessive reduced demand because of suppression of discretionary consumer demand is quite high.

    Wage inflation is going to be a massive problem in the UK IMO. There are huge sections of industry that cannot find staff, so job seekers that have the right skills are becoming more demanding and existing employees are insisting on higher pay or the inference is that they will bugger off. It is cheaper to hike someone's pay than lose a key member of staff. The public sector will no doubt suffer similar pressure and industrial disputes.
    What you consider a problem, others consider desirable of course.

    So long as the wage inflation is due to supply and demand market economics at a time of full employment, as opposed to unions, strikes and politics while millions languish unemployed, then market driven pay rises are a good thing for those that get them.
    Problem is that by far the biggest chunk of our market is Europe. They now have the inexpensive labour; we don't. Brexit is a kind of weird inversion of Thatcherism, a weird kind of socialism.
    Quite a drop off in our car production. Down by 50% since the Brexit vote, and still going down.

    UK Risks Car Collapse as Jaguar Land Rover Looks Elsewhere for Batteries https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-26/uk-risks-car-collapse-as-jaguar-land-rover-looks-elsewhere-for-batteries
    Could it be because hydrocarbon powered cars are being phased out by diktat and electric alternatives are hugely expensive?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,067
    Stereodog said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    One for @Heathener

    Last Night in Sivota. Literally. I am now checking out and moving on. The nomadic life continues…

    I'm also abroad atm and moving from place to place using only my native wit and a credit card.
    Looking forward to your daily travelblog.
    Well I'm going to the WW1 cemetery at Ypres today.
    It's a humbling thing. There are 55,000 names on the Menin Gate. But that's not the number of men killed in a war. It's not even the number of men killed in a campaign. It's just the number of men killed in a campaign whose bodies they couldn't find. No, it's not even that, because they ran out of space and had to continue the list at Tyne Cot (35,000 names). Incomprehensible.
    At the risk of getting the maths wrong, British men killed 887,858, divided by number of days the war lasted (1581) gives 560 killed a day for 4 years and 4 months. And that ignores injuries, many of which were horrific. And that's just us.

    Germany lost around 2 million, France 1.4 Million.

    On a flippant aside, you can see why there were so many unmarried aunts back in the 20's and 30's.

    Horrific.
    Europe has never truly recovered from World War 1

    Eg Russia is a shit-show now because of what happened in 1914-1917. The Great War also led pretty directly to Hitler and Nazism

    There is a good argument for saying World War 1 is the greatest avoidable tragedy in human history
    The conditions which created it weren’t, though.
    How likely is it that the clashing imperialisms and nationalisms would not still have led to mass conflict, even if it had been avoided in 1914 ?
    I understand all that, I’ve read the books. The Fashoda incident. Etc

    I just can’t buy a vision of human nature that says we had no choice but to wage a war that would kill 10m people for no obvious gain or reason and which would make the world a vastly sadder place, and which paved the way for Lenin, Stalin and Hitler. And then Mao

    Maybe it’s the cheery Boris-tolerating optimist in me, and I am sadly misguided. I’d rather be that than a desolating fatalist
    I'm not a fatalist - WWI was not inevitable - but appeals to human nature are unpersuasive when you consider the nature of the regimes around Europe at the time - and the fact that wars of conquest hadn't the same taboos attached as they do now.

    Human nature is corruptible, and for every cosmopolitan Vienna, with its cultural flowering, or pragmatic seeker of stability like Britain, there was an imperial Germany or Russia.

    The Russia you wrote of earlier is not the result of WWI - its nature has not massively changed since the Tsars.
    I think some kind of European war was inevitable. The French were itching to try and erase the effects of the Franco-Prussian War and recapture Alsace-Lorraine. The Germans were equally desperate to retain dominance over France. The Austro Hungarian Empire would have had to do something to put down the nascent nationalist movements within it's borders which would have angered other powers. Britain's involvement however was not inevitable. The Liberal Government was temperamentally and ideologically disinclined to intervene and would never have done so unless Belgium's neutrality was violated. That was the NATO like red line where to do nothing would have meant that all international treaties would become worthless.
    The German war plan was based on Britain not seeing Belgian neutrality being violated as a cause for war. Would we have joined in if it was a pure German/AH war with France/Russia? The Germans thought not.

    Similar in a way to Putin not believing that Ukraine would be backed by NATO.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,841
    edited May 2022
    Election autumn 2023?
    This years support takes us to next spring. Giveaway budget and election sometime later in the year?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,841
    Andy_JS said:

    We seem to have a Labour government led by Boris Johnson. Curious.

    Maybe it'll be fiscal conservatives who finally end Johnson's leadership. People like John Redwood.
    He was seething about QE stoking inflation
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Looks like Sunak agrees with me that if inflation is being driven by external forces, then there is not a high risk of a wage inflation spiral. Indeed the prospect of economic downturn due to excessive reduced demand because of suppression of discretionary consumer demand is quite high.

    Wage inflation is going to be a massive problem in the UK IMO. There are huge sections of industry that cannot find staff, so job seekers that have the right skills are becoming more demanding and existing employees are insisting on higher pay or the inference is that they will bugger off. It is cheaper to hike someone's pay than lose a key member of staff. The public sector will no doubt suffer similar pressure and industrial disputes.
    What you consider a problem, others consider desirable of course.

    So long as the wage inflation is due to supply and demand market economics at a time of full employment, as opposed to unions, strikes and politics while millions languish unemployed, then market driven pay rises are a good thing for those that get them.
    Problem is that by far the biggest chunk of our market is Europe. They now have the inexpensive labour; we don't. Brexit is a kind of weird inversion of Thatcherism, a weird kind of socialism.
    Quite a drop off in our car production. Down by 50% since the Brexit vote, and still going down.

    UK Risks Car Collapse as Jaguar Land Rover Looks Elsewhere for Batteries https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-26/uk-risks-car-collapse-as-jaguar-land-rover-looks-elsewhere-for-batteries
    It does look terminal for the UK car industry. We don't own anything, we barely invest in anything, we're just not interested.
    The German car industry will save us. Apparently.....
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    Andy_JS said:

    We seem to have a Labour government led by Boris Johnson. Curious.

    Maybe it'll be fiscal conservatives who finally end Johnson's leadership. People like John Redwood.
    BY the time the conservatives rediscover conservatism, it will be far too late. And who would believe them, anyway?

    They will be a bit like HAL the computer in A Space Odyssey. Desperately trying to give assurances they are feeling much better now as the electorate determinably shuts them down.

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    Alistair said:

    How contemptible is the new Labour minority Edinburgh Council administration?

    They got more votes from Lib Dem councillors than they did from Labour councillors to form the admin.

    The Zoomers are unhappy because no council without SNP presence will legislate to hold their pretendy referendum
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    edited May 2022
    Kind of related - just had an apology from British Gas for putting my DD up from £234pm to £542pm... without telling me first.

    If that is typical the current government splurge will soon be lost from memory.

    Why not just force the price cap to be frozen where it was last October and subsidise the suppliers to cover the difference between their wholesale prices and the cap?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,585
    Therese Coffey says Labour's windfall tax is s***, and Sunak's profits levy is wholly different.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,232

    We seem to have a Labour government led by Boris Johnson. Curious.

    Clever politics from Boris though. Your average Telegraph reader is never going to vote for Sir Keir 'Second Brexit Referendum; Destroy Democracy' Starmer anyway, so they're in the bag. It's the cost-of-living whingers that Boris needs to placate. A tax-funded spending bonanza should work like a charm.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,067
    MISTY said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Looks like Sunak agrees with me that if inflation is being driven by external forces, then there is not a high risk of a wage inflation spiral. Indeed the prospect of economic downturn due to excessive reduced demand because of suppression of discretionary consumer demand is quite high.

    Wage inflation is going to be a massive problem in the UK IMO. There are huge sections of industry that cannot find staff, so job seekers that have the right skills are becoming more demanding and existing employees are insisting on higher pay or the inference is that they will bugger off. It is cheaper to hike someone's pay than lose a key member of staff. The public sector will no doubt suffer similar pressure and industrial disputes.
    What you consider a problem, others consider desirable of course.

    So long as the wage inflation is due to supply and demand market economics at a time of full employment, as opposed to unions, strikes and politics while millions languish unemployed, then market driven pay rises are a good thing for those that get them.
    Problem is that by far the biggest chunk of our market is Europe. They now have the inexpensive labour; we don't. Brexit is a kind of weird inversion of Thatcherism, a weird kind of socialism.
    Quite a drop off in our car production. Down by 50% since the Brexit vote, and still going down.

    UK Risks Car Collapse as Jaguar Land Rover Looks Elsewhere for Batteries https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-26/uk-risks-car-collapse-as-jaguar-land-rover-looks-elsewhere-for-batteries
    Could it be because hydrocarbon powered cars are being phased out by diktat and electric alternatives are hugely expensive?
    No, it doesn't appear to be a demand led decrease, and it is forecast that European automotive production is recovering well post pandemic.

    https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/europes-automakers-warn-2022-production-will-fall-short-demand
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    NEW: Understand around £10 billion of the £15bn spending announced today will come from borrowing

    Which shows that despite Sunak warnings if the political will is there Treasury **will** borrow to spend

    Remember that for future spending rows (defence, public sector pay etc)

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1529800470092464132
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    Let's not forget that Sunak has had to be dragged kicking and screaming to do this for the least well-off. He did nothing in the recent Budget.

    Arguably it is only happening at all because Big Dog wants to get piss-ups off the front pages.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,841
    This may also help us answer the q - is it partygats or CoL driving VI?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    edited May 2022

    Roger said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Boris left immediately after Rishi statement. Looked like he needed to throw up into a bin
    https://twitter.com/JohnJCrace/status/1529791396483371008

    I haven't seen so much anger for a long time. I don't get usually get texts about politics. But today they're coming thick and fast. Has anyone seen this months Private Eye cover? Possibly the rudest ever. I have it on my mobile but I don't know how to show it here......

    Clearly you have to live 5000 miles away under the absolute rule of of a Sheikh before this stuff rolls over you.
    Do you mean -

    image
    The one I was sent was much more fun than that!

    (look up christhebarker)
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    .

    Let's not forget that Sunak has had to be dragged kicking and screaming to do this for the least well-off. He did nothing in the recent Budget.

    Arguably it is only happening at all because Big Dog wants to get piss-ups off the front pages.

    Doing the wrong thing for the wrong reason, supported by the Opposition.

    We've been here before...
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,841

    Let's not forget that Sunak has had to be dragged kicking and screaming to do this for the least well-off. He did nothing in the recent Budget.

    Arguably it is only happening at all because Big Dog wants to get piss-ups off the front pages.

    Thats very true but its a tightrope to criticise them over without looking like youre against help with CoL because 'cake'
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,225
    edited May 2022
    Foxy said:

    Stereodog said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    One for @Heathener

    Last Night in Sivota. Literally. I am now checking out and moving on. The nomadic life continues…

    I'm also abroad atm and moving from place to place using only my native wit and a credit card.
    Looking forward to your daily travelblog.
    Well I'm going to the WW1 cemetery at Ypres today.
    It's a humbling thing. There are 55,000 names on the Menin Gate. But that's not the number of men killed in a war. It's not even the number of men killed in a campaign. It's just the number of men killed in a campaign whose bodies they couldn't find. No, it's not even that, because they ran out of space and had to continue the list at Tyne Cot (35,000 names). Incomprehensible.
    At the risk of getting the maths wrong, British men killed 887,858, divided by number of days the war lasted (1581) gives 560 killed a day for 4 years and 4 months. And that ignores injuries, many of which were horrific. And that's just us.

    Germany lost around 2 million, France 1.4 Million.

    On a flippant aside, you can see why there were so many unmarried aunts back in the 20's and 30's.

    Horrific.
    Europe has never truly recovered from World War 1

    Eg Russia is a shit-show now because of what happened in 1914-1917. The Great War also led pretty directly to Hitler and Nazism

    There is a good argument for saying World War 1 is the greatest avoidable tragedy in human history
    The conditions which created it weren’t, though.
    How likely is it that the clashing imperialisms and nationalisms would not still have led to mass conflict, even if it had been avoided in 1914 ?
    I understand all that, I’ve read the books. The Fashoda incident. Etc

    I just can’t buy a vision of human nature that says we had no choice but to wage a war that would kill 10m people for no obvious gain or reason and which would make the world a vastly sadder place, and which paved the way for Lenin, Stalin and Hitler. And then Mao

    Maybe it’s the cheery Boris-tolerating optimist in me, and I am sadly misguided. I’d rather be that than a desolating fatalist
    I'm not a fatalist - WWI was not inevitable - but appeals to human nature are unpersuasive when you consider the nature of the regimes around Europe at the time - and the fact that wars of conquest hadn't the same taboos attached as they do now.

    Human nature is corruptible, and for every cosmopolitan Vienna, with its cultural flowering, or pragmatic seeker of stability like Britain, there was an imperial Germany or Russia.

    The Russia you wrote of earlier is not the result of WWI - its nature has not massively changed since the Tsars.
    I think some kind of European war was inevitable. The French were itching to try and erase the effects of the Franco-Prussian War and recapture Alsace-Lorraine. The Germans were equally desperate to retain dominance over France. The Austro Hungarian Empire would have had to do something to put down the nascent nationalist movements within it's borders which would have angered other powers. Britain's involvement however was not inevitable. The Liberal Government was temperamentally and ideologically disinclined to intervene and would never have done so unless Belgium's neutrality was violated. That was the NATO like red line where to do nothing would have meant that all international treaties would become worthless.
    The German war plan was based on Britain not seeing Belgian neutrality being violated as a cause for war. Would we have joined in if it was a pure German/AH war with France/Russia? The Germans thought not.

    Similar in a way to Putin not believing that Ukraine would be backed by NATO.
    I agree very much with Stereodog here but would add the important factor that the war was very popular with the British Public at the outset. Think of the white feathers. So it would have been hard for any UK Government to hold back.

    It could have been a bit smarter though. I'm not sure the BEF added very much to allied strength; the naval blockade certainly did. Maybe we should have stuck to what we did well.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281

    We seem to have a Labour government led by Boris Johnson. Curious.

    Clever politics from Boris though. Your average Telegraph reader is never going to vote for Sir Keir 'Second Brexit Referendum; Destroy Democracy' Starmer anyway, so they're in the bag. It's the cost-of-living whingers that Boris needs to placate. A tax-funded spending bonanza should work like a charm.
    Sure, but it just becomes ever clearer that Johnson is in power for power's sake. He'd nationalise all businesses, collectivise farms and run a 5-year plan if he thought he'd get him re-elected.

    At some point real Tories are going to ask 'what's the point of a Tory government?'
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787
    edited May 2022
    According to [Zelensky advisor] Arestovych: the “Old Europe” block (France, Germany, Italy) + Hungary (which has its own separate interest) is now trying to slow down the necessary heavy arms supplies to Ukraine deliberately to prevent any possibility of Ukraine’s victory. The reason why they are doing it is to prevent the emergence of a bloc of East and Central European states (Poland, Ukraine, Czech Republic, the Baltics, Romania) backed by the UK, that would counterbalance France and Germany and effectively end their dominance of Europe.

    https://twitter.com/akoz33/status/1529563509205487619
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,226
    Is there any moral rationale at all for shovelling yet more cash to pensioners, when they’re due a 10% pay rise thanks to the triple lock, and have been shielded from tax rises by sleight of fiscal hand (NI vs Income Tax)?

    Anyone under 50 still voting for this lot need their heads examined.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,968

    Is that pensioner £300 payment to all pensioners?

    Anyone born on or before 26th September 1955 receives between £100 and £300 winter fuel allowance so I assume the £300 will be added to these figures
    Hurrah, my parents are getting some money from the government.

    Struggling pensioners that they are.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,841
    edited May 2022
    moonshine said:

    Is there any moral rationale at all for shovelling yet more cash to pensioners, when they’re due a 10% pay rise thanks to the triple lock, and have been shielded from tax rises by sleight of fiscal hand (NI vs Income Tax)?

    Anyone under 50 still voting for this lot need their heads examined.

    No, its purely electoral and aimed at the core support demographic.
    Dont do it and Labour will find some shivering old hen to plaster in a PPB
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,225
    @Benpointer

    'Sure, but it just becomes ever clearer that Johnson is in power for power's sake. He'd nationalise all businesses, collectivise farms and run a 5-year plan if he thought he'd get him re-elected. '

    Nobody has put it better, Ben.

    Some still find it difficult to grasp though. Not that I have much to shout about. I voted for him to be Mayor of London. I thought he was pro-EU, naively of course. I assumed that he was because he said he was.

    Stupid, eh?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,968

    This may also help us answer the q - is it partygats or CoL driving VI?

    Both.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,841

    We seem to have a Labour government led by Boris Johnson. Curious.

    Clever politics from Boris though. Your average Telegraph reader is never going to vote for Sir Keir 'Second Brexit Referendum; Destroy Democracy' Starmer anyway, so they're in the bag. It's the cost-of-living whingers that Boris needs to placate. A tax-funded spending bonanza should work like a charm.
    Sure, but it just becomes ever clearer that Johnson is in power for power's sake. He'd nationalise all businesses, collectivise farms and run a 5-year plan if he thought he'd get him re-elected.

    At some point real Tories are going to ask 'what's the point of a Tory government?'
    He's always been an economic centrist, the last Heathite
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,225
    edited May 2022

    Is that pensioner £300 payment to all pensioners?

    Anyone born on or before 26th September 1955 receives between £100 and £300 winter fuel allowance so I assume the £300 will be added to these figures
    Hurrah, my parents are getting some money from the government.

    Struggling pensioners that they are.
    It's terrific news, TSE.

    I will be able to renew my Annual Membership for Cheltenham Racecourse after all.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,841

    This may also help us answer the q - is it partygats or CoL driving VI?

    Both.
    Perhaps, but we may see which is the key driver
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,880
    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: Understand around £10 billion of the £15bn spending announced today will come from borrowing

    Which shows that despite Sunak warnings if the political will is there Treasury **will** borrow to spend

    Remember that for future spending rows (defence, public sector pay etc)

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1529800470092464132

    It won't happen for defence, they don't like spending even borrowed money on that. The tories cut the attack submarine fleet from 7 to 5 this week retiring Trenchant and Talent.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    Dura_Ace said:

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: Understand around £10 billion of the £15bn spending announced today will come from borrowing

    Which shows that despite Sunak warnings if the political will is there Treasury **will** borrow to spend

    Remember that for future spending rows (defence, public sector pay etc)

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1529800470092464132

    It won't happen for defence, they don't like spending even borrowed money on that. The tories cut the attack submarine fleet from 7 to 5 this week retiring Trenchant and Talent.
    The remarkable thing is how quietly they have been able to do that...
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    moonshine said:

    Is there any moral rationale at all for shovelling yet more cash to pensioners, when they’re due a 10% pay rise thanks to the triple lock, and have been shielded from tax rises by sleight of fiscal hand (NI vs Income Tax)?

    Anyone under 50 still voting for this lot need their heads examined.

    Tory vote

    Party members' vote; he must still think he is in with a slim chance if bojo gets vonced, or nailed for lying.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    MISTY said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Looks like Sunak agrees with me that if inflation is being driven by external forces, then there is not a high risk of a wage inflation spiral. Indeed the prospect of economic downturn due to excessive reduced demand because of suppression of discretionary consumer demand is quite high.

    Wage inflation is going to be a massive problem in the UK IMO. There are huge sections of industry that cannot find staff, so job seekers that have the right skills are becoming more demanding and existing employees are insisting on higher pay or the inference is that they will bugger off. It is cheaper to hike someone's pay than lose a key member of staff. The public sector will no doubt suffer similar pressure and industrial disputes.
    What you consider a problem, others consider desirable of course.

    So long as the wage inflation is due to supply and demand market economics at a time of full employment, as opposed to unions, strikes and politics while millions languish unemployed, then market driven pay rises are a good thing for those that get them.
    Problem is that by far the biggest chunk of our market is Europe. They now have the inexpensive labour; we don't. Brexit is a kind of weird inversion of Thatcherism, a weird kind of socialism.
    Quite a drop off in our car production. Down by 50% since the Brexit vote, and still going down.

    UK Risks Car Collapse as Jaguar Land Rover Looks Elsewhere for Batteries https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-26/uk-risks-car-collapse-as-jaguar-land-rover-looks-elsewhere-for-batteries
    Could it be because hydrocarbon powered cars are being phased out by diktat and electric alternatives are hugely expensive?
    A combination of that, and widespread disruption to supply lines, especially for electronics. It’s a worldwide problem.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 3,773
    Dura_Ace said:

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: Understand around £10 billion of the £15bn spending announced today will come from borrowing

    Which shows that despite Sunak warnings if the political will is there Treasury **will** borrow to spend

    Remember that for future spending rows (defence, public sector pay etc)

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1529800470092464132

    It won't happen for defence, they don't like spending even borrowed money on that. The tories cut the attack submarine fleet from 7 to 5 this week retiring Trenchant and Talent.
    Trenchant and Talent were ditched by No10 ages ago.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,620

    Foxy said:

    Stereodog said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    One for @Heathener

    Last Night in Sivota. Literally. I am now checking out and moving on. The nomadic life continues…

    I'm also abroad atm and moving from place to place using only my native wit and a credit card.
    Looking forward to your daily travelblog.
    Well I'm going to the WW1 cemetery at Ypres today.
    It's a humbling thing. There are 55,000 names on the Menin Gate. But that's not the number of men killed in a war. It's not even the number of men killed in a campaign. It's just the number of men killed in a campaign whose bodies they couldn't find. No, it's not even that, because they ran out of space and had to continue the list at Tyne Cot (35,000 names). Incomprehensible.
    At the risk of getting the maths wrong, British men killed 887,858, divided by number of days the war lasted (1581) gives 560 killed a day for 4 years and 4 months. And that ignores injuries, many of which were horrific. And that's just us.

    Germany lost around 2 million, France 1.4 Million.

    On a flippant aside, you can see why there were so many unmarried aunts back in the 20's and 30's.

    Horrific.
    Europe has never truly recovered from World War 1

    Eg Russia is a shit-show now because of what happened in 1914-1917. The Great War also led pretty directly to Hitler and Nazism

    There is a good argument for saying World War 1 is the greatest avoidable tragedy in human history
    The conditions which created it weren’t, though.
    How likely is it that the clashing imperialisms and nationalisms would not still have led to mass conflict, even if it had been avoided in 1914 ?
    I understand all that, I’ve read the books. The Fashoda incident. Etc

    I just can’t buy a vision of human nature that says we had no choice but to wage a war that would kill 10m people for no obvious gain or reason and which would make the world a vastly sadder place, and which paved the way for Lenin, Stalin and Hitler. And then Mao

    Maybe it’s the cheery Boris-tolerating optimist in me, and I am sadly misguided. I’d rather be that than a desolating fatalist
    I'm not a fatalist - WWI was not inevitable - but appeals to human nature are unpersuasive when you consider the nature of the regimes around Europe at the time - and the fact that wars of conquest hadn't the same taboos attached as they do now.

    Human nature is corruptible, and for every cosmopolitan Vienna, with its cultural flowering, or pragmatic seeker of stability like Britain, there was an imperial Germany or Russia.

    The Russia you wrote of earlier is not the result of WWI - its nature has not massively changed since the Tsars.
    I think some kind of European war was inevitable. The French were itching to try and erase the effects of the Franco-Prussian War and recapture Alsace-Lorraine. The Germans were equally desperate to retain dominance over France. The Austro Hungarian Empire would have had to do something to put down the nascent nationalist movements within it's borders which would have angered other powers. Britain's involvement however was not inevitable. The Liberal Government was temperamentally and ideologically disinclined to intervene and would never have done so unless Belgium's neutrality was violated. That was the NATO like red line where to do nothing would have meant that all international treaties would become worthless.
    The German war plan was based on Britain not seeing Belgian neutrality being violated as a cause for war. Would we have joined in if it was a pure German/AH war with France/Russia? The Germans thought not.

    Similar in a way to Putin not believing that Ukraine would be backed by NATO.
    I agree very much with Stereodog here but would add the important factor that the war was very popular with the British Public at the outset. Think of the white feathers. So it would have been hard for any UK Government to hold back.

    It could have been a bit smarter though. I'm not sure the BEF added very much to allied strength; the naval blockade certainly did. Maybe we should have stuck to what we did well.
    It was Belgium that united the country on this. Without the violations of Belgium neutrality, the Germans could have sold the war as 1870 Part Deux.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739

    @Benpointer

    'Sure, but it just becomes ever clearer that Johnson is in power for power's sake. He'd nationalise all businesses, collectivise farms and run a 5-year plan if he thought he'd get him re-elected. '

    Nobody has put it better, Ben.

    Some still find it difficult to grasp though. Not that I have much to shout about. I voted for him to be Mayor of London. I thought he was pro-EU, naively of course. I assumed that he was because he said he was.

    Stupid, eh?

    On a previous thread the comparison between BoZo and Hitler was raised.

    Does he want to gas a million Jews? No.

    Does he want to stand on the steps at Nuremberg and have thousands of people chanting his name? Hell yes.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,087

    @Benpointer

    'Sure, but it just becomes ever clearer that Johnson is in power for power's sake. He'd nationalise all businesses, collectivise farms and run a 5-year plan if he thought he'd get him re-elected. '

    Nobody has put it better, Ben.

    Some still find it difficult to grasp though. Not that I have much to shout about. I voted for him to be Mayor of London. I thought he was pro-EU, naively of course. I assumed that he was because he said he was.

    Stupid, eh?

    He's damn good at seduction.

    If he weren't, his fundamental shittiness would have meant that he would never have got anywhere, except for hanging around Chelsea bars saying "I'm Rachel and Jo's brother, you know."
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,574
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Looks like Sunak agrees with me that if inflation is being driven by external forces, then there is not a high risk of a wage inflation spiral. Indeed the prospect of economic downturn due to excessive reduced demand because of suppression of discretionary consumer demand is quite high.

    Wage inflation is going to be a massive problem in the UK IMO. There are huge sections of industry that cannot find staff, so job seekers that have the right skills are becoming more demanding and existing employees are insisting on higher pay or the inference is that they will bugger off. It is cheaper to hike someone's pay than lose a key member of staff. The public sector will no doubt suffer similar pressure and industrial disputes.
    What you consider a problem, others consider desirable of course.

    So long as the wage inflation is due to supply and demand market economics at a time of full employment, as opposed to unions, strikes and politics while millions languish unemployed, then market driven pay rises are a good thing for those that get them.
    Problem is that by far the biggest chunk of our market is Europe. They now have the inexpensive labour; we don't. Brexit is a kind of weird inversion of Thatcherism, a weird kind of socialism.
    Quite a drop off in our car production. Down by 50% since the Brexit vote, and still going down.

    UK Risks Car Collapse as Jaguar Land Rover Looks Elsewhere for Batteries https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-26/uk-risks-car-collapse-as-jaguar-land-rover-looks-elsewhere-for-batteries
    I’ve been boring on about that since Brexit, and been told I’m plain wrong.
    Doesn’t look like it at the moment.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,002
    edited May 2022
    Sky just reported from a meeting of pensioners and every one of them were delighted and surprised at the amount being provided

    Is this Rishi's col furlough moment ?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Scott_xP said:

    @Benpointer

    'Sure, but it just becomes ever clearer that Johnson is in power for power's sake. He'd nationalise all businesses, collectivise farms and run a 5-year plan if he thought he'd get him re-elected. '

    Nobody has put it better, Ben.

    Some still find it difficult to grasp though. Not that I have much to shout about. I voted for him to be Mayor of London. I thought he was pro-EU, naively of course. I assumed that he was because he said he was.

    Stupid, eh?

    On a previous thread the comparison between BoZo and Hitler was raised.

    Does he want to gas a million Jews? No.

    Does he want to stand on the steps at Nuremberg and have thousands of people chanting his name? Hell yes.
    Does he have strong feelings either way about a million Jews being gassed? No.

    Or perhaps it's just brown chaps he is unfussed about.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 14,912
    Scott_xP said:

    @Benpointer

    'Sure, but it just becomes ever clearer that Johnson is in power for power's sake. He'd nationalise all businesses, collectivise farms and run a 5-year plan if he thought he'd get him re-elected. '

    Nobody has put it better, Ben.

    Some still find it difficult to grasp though. Not that I have much to shout about. I voted for him to be Mayor of London. I thought he was pro-EU, naively of course. I assumed that he was because he said he was.

    Stupid, eh?

    On a previous thread the comparison between BoZo and Hitler was raised.

    Does he want to gas a million Jews? No.

    Does he want to stand on the steps at Nuremberg and have thousands of people chanting his name? Hell yes.
    Heil yes.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,968

    Is that pensioner £300 payment to all pensioners?

    Anyone born on or before 26th September 1955 receives between £100 and £300 winter fuel allowance so I assume the £300 will be added to these figures
    Hurrah, my parents are getting some money from the government.

    Struggling pensioners that they are.
    It's terrific news, TSE.

    I will be able to renew my Annual Membership for Cheltenham Racecourse after all.
    They should give you life membership.

    But hurrah for Sunak helping struggling pensioners.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,225

    Foxy said:

    Stereodog said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    One for @Heathener

    Last Night in Sivota. Literally. I am now checking out and moving on. The nomadic life continues…

    I'm also abroad atm and moving from place to place using only my native wit and a credit card.
    Looking forward to your daily travelblog.
    Well I'm going to the WW1 cemetery at Ypres today.
    It's a humbling thing. There are 55,000 names on the Menin Gate. But that's not the number of men killed in a war. It's not even the number of men killed in a campaign. It's just the number of men killed in a campaign whose bodies they couldn't find. No, it's not even that, because they ran out of space and had to continue the list at Tyne Cot (35,000 names). Incomprehensible.
    At the risk of getting the maths wrong, British men killed 887,858, divided by number of days the war lasted (1581) gives 560 killed a day for 4 years and 4 months. And that ignores injuries, many of which were horrific. And that's just us.

    Germany lost around 2 million, France 1.4 Million.

    On a flippant aside, you can see why there were so many unmarried aunts back in the 20's and 30's.

    Horrific.
    Europe has never truly recovered from World War 1

    Eg Russia is a shit-show now because of what happened in 1914-1917. The Great War also led pretty directly to Hitler and Nazism

    There is a good argument for saying World War 1 is the greatest avoidable tragedy in human history
    The conditions which created it weren’t, though.
    How likely is it that the clashing imperialisms and nationalisms would not still have led to mass conflict, even if it had been avoided in 1914 ?
    I understand all that, I’ve read the books. The Fashoda incident. Etc

    I just can’t buy a vision of human nature that says we had no choice but to wage a war that would kill 10m people for no obvious gain or reason and which would make the world a vastly sadder place, and which paved the way for Lenin, Stalin and Hitler. And then Mao

    Maybe it’s the cheery Boris-tolerating optimist in me, and I am sadly misguided. I’d rather be that than a desolating fatalist
    I'm not a fatalist - WWI was not inevitable - but appeals to human nature are unpersuasive when you consider the nature of the regimes around Europe at the time - and the fact that wars of conquest hadn't the same taboos attached as they do now.

    Human nature is corruptible, and for every cosmopolitan Vienna, with its cultural flowering, or pragmatic seeker of stability like Britain, there was an imperial Germany or Russia.

    The Russia you wrote of earlier is not the result of WWI - its nature has not massively changed since the Tsars.
    I think some kind of European war was inevitable. The French were itching to try and erase the effects of the Franco-Prussian War and recapture Alsace-Lorraine. The Germans were equally desperate to retain dominance over France. The Austro Hungarian Empire would have had to do something to put down the nascent nationalist movements within it's borders which would have angered other powers. Britain's involvement however was not inevitable. The Liberal Government was temperamentally and ideologically disinclined to intervene and would never have done so unless Belgium's neutrality was violated. That was the NATO like red line where to do nothing would have meant that all international treaties would become worthless.
    The German war plan was based on Britain not seeing Belgian neutrality being violated as a cause for war. Would we have joined in if it was a pure German/AH war with France/Russia? The Germans thought not.

    Similar in a way to Putin not believing that Ukraine would be backed by NATO.
    I agree very much with Stereodog here but would add the important factor that the war was very popular with the British Public at the outset. Think of the white feathers. So it would have been hard for any UK Government to hold back.

    It could have been a bit smarter though. I'm not sure the BEF added very much to allied strength; the naval blockade certainly did. Maybe we should have stuck to what we did well.
    It was Belgium that united the country on this. Without the violations of Belgium neutrality, the Germans could have sold the war as 1870 Part Deux.
    Yes, I'm sure that is right. The Germans were astonished that we would go to war over a piece of paper. It's a view that one can easily understand when you consider how disrespectful we were of neutral sovereign nations, then and on many occasions since.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846
    Foxy said:

    MISTY said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Looks like Sunak agrees with me that if inflation is being driven by external forces, then there is not a high risk of a wage inflation spiral. Indeed the prospect of economic downturn due to excessive reduced demand because of suppression of discretionary consumer demand is quite high.

    Wage inflation is going to be a massive problem in the UK IMO. There are huge sections of industry that cannot find staff, so job seekers that have the right skills are becoming more demanding and existing employees are insisting on higher pay or the inference is that they will bugger off. It is cheaper to hike someone's pay than lose a key member of staff. The public sector will no doubt suffer similar pressure and industrial disputes.
    What you consider a problem, others consider desirable of course.

    So long as the wage inflation is due to supply and demand market economics at a time of full employment, as opposed to unions, strikes and politics while millions languish unemployed, then market driven pay rises are a good thing for those that get them.
    Problem is that by far the biggest chunk of our market is Europe. They now have the inexpensive labour; we don't. Brexit is a kind of weird inversion of Thatcherism, a weird kind of socialism.
    Quite a drop off in our car production. Down by 50% since the Brexit vote, and still going down.

    UK Risks Car Collapse as Jaguar Land Rover Looks Elsewhere for Batteries https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-26/uk-risks-car-collapse-as-jaguar-land-rover-looks-elsewhere-for-batteries
    Could it be because hydrocarbon powered cars are being phased out by diktat and electric alternatives are hugely expensive?
    No, it doesn't appear to be a demand led decrease, and it is forecast that European automotive production is recovering well post pandemic.

    https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/europes-automakers-warn-2022-production-will-fall-short-demand
    Hmm. But of course, unlike the UK, the EU are not going to ban the sale of petrol and diesel cars in 8 years time. Their phase out isn't until 2050 and even on that they have rolled back since the original announcement a decade ago and still haven't set a date for banning the sale petrol cars. So there is no reason for European car production to start to wind down - unlike the UK.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Sky just reported from a meeting of pensioners and every one of them were delighted and surprised at the amount being provided

    Is this Rishi's col furlough moment ?

    Don't rip up those next pm betting slips just yet.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,841
    IshmaelZ said:

    Sky just reported from a meeting of pensioners and every one of them were delighted and surprised at the amount being provided

    Is this Rishi's col furlough moment ?

    Don't rip up those next pm betting slips just yet.
    Incoming 'Rishi' bojo smears in 5, 4..........
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 14,912

    Foxy said:

    MISTY said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Looks like Sunak agrees with me that if inflation is being driven by external forces, then there is not a high risk of a wage inflation spiral. Indeed the prospect of economic downturn due to excessive reduced demand because of suppression of discretionary consumer demand is quite high.

    Wage inflation is going to be a massive problem in the UK IMO. There are huge sections of industry that cannot find staff, so job seekers that have the right skills are becoming more demanding and existing employees are insisting on higher pay or the inference is that they will bugger off. It is cheaper to hike someone's pay than lose a key member of staff. The public sector will no doubt suffer similar pressure and industrial disputes.
    What you consider a problem, others consider desirable of course.

    So long as the wage inflation is due to supply and demand market economics at a time of full employment, as opposed to unions, strikes and politics while millions languish unemployed, then market driven pay rises are a good thing for those that get them.
    Problem is that by far the biggest chunk of our market is Europe. They now have the inexpensive labour; we don't. Brexit is a kind of weird inversion of Thatcherism, a weird kind of socialism.
    Quite a drop off in our car production. Down by 50% since the Brexit vote, and still going down.

    UK Risks Car Collapse as Jaguar Land Rover Looks Elsewhere for Batteries https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-26/uk-risks-car-collapse-as-jaguar-land-rover-looks-elsewhere-for-batteries
    Could it be because hydrocarbon powered cars are being phased out by diktat and electric alternatives are hugely expensive?
    No, it doesn't appear to be a demand led decrease, and it is forecast that European automotive production is recovering well post pandemic.

    https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/europes-automakers-warn-2022-production-will-fall-short-demand
    Hmm. But of course, unlike the UK, the EU are not going to ban the sale of petrol and diesel cars in 8 years time. Their phase out isn't until 2050 and even on that they have rolled back since the original announcement a decade ago and still haven't set a date for banning the sale petrol cars. So there is no reason for European car production to start to wind down - unlike the UK.
    Luckily we can still export friction free to that EU market, oh wait no we can't. 😢
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,620
    boulay said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: Understand around £10 billion of the £15bn spending announced today will come from borrowing

    Which shows that despite Sunak warnings if the political will is there Treasury **will** borrow to spend

    Remember that for future spending rows (defence, public sector pay etc)

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1529800470092464132

    It won't happen for defence, they don't like spending even borrowed money on that. The tories cut the attack submarine fleet from 7 to 5 this week retiring Trenchant and Talent.
    Trenchant and Talent were ditched by No10 ages ago.
    Ha

    In the case of T class subs - aren't they at end of life and being replaced by Astutes? IIRC delivery of the Astutes has slipped by a year or 2
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,002
    edited May 2022
    IshmaelZ said:

    Sky just reported from a meeting of pensioners and every one of them were delighted and surprised at the amount being provided

    Is this Rishi's col furlough moment ?

    Don't rip up those next pm betting slips just yet.
    I did suggest this much earlier today

    I think the pensioners who were spoken to would have made him PM now if they could

    Come on conservative mps and remove Boris
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,841

    IshmaelZ said:

    Sky just reported from a meeting of pensioners and every one of them were delighted and surprised at the amount being provided

    Is this Rishi's col furlough moment ?

    Don't rip up those next pm betting slips just yet.
    I did suggest this much earlier today

    I think the pensioners who were spoken to would have made him PM now if they could

    Common conservative mps and remove Boris
    Reengage the grey vote and SKS has a very tough ask
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,841
    Lol @ 2010 and 2015 and the 'fully costed' farrago
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,087

    Sky just reported from a meeting of pensioners and every one of them were delighted and surprised at the amount being provided

    Is this Rishi's col furlough moment ?

    For now, maybe, and it may be enough to get Rishi into No 10 if he gets his skates on.

    But the combination of the incoming energy price rises and this package are still going to leave an awful lot of people poorer.

    Less poorer than they would have been, and that's to be welcomed. And it looks like this package does the right thing to help fewer people properly. But a lot of people are going to be left poorer.

    And whilst that's probably inevitable, it's also not going to be a cause of delight.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,461
    edited May 2022
    As if often the case, today's budget announcement will take time to unravel, and initial reactions may be misplaced.

    I'm not sure it will help the Tories keep their rather fragile coalition together. It may become reminiscent of Thatcher's battle with the "Wets". Except this time the "Wets" are in power, and the fiscally conservative "Dries" are standing back horrified at the extent of the government's spendthrift largesse in challenging economic times. It may not end well; many Tories (not just on the Right) will not like seeing their government stealing Labour's clothes. It could all be fine, but equally it may not end well.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,002

    IshmaelZ said:

    Sky just reported from a meeting of pensioners and every one of them were delighted and surprised at the amount being provided

    Is this Rishi's col furlough moment ?

    Don't rip up those next pm betting slips just yet.
    I did suggest this much earlier today

    I think the pensioners who were spoken to would have made him PM now if they could

    Common conservative mps and remove Boris
    Reengage the grey vote and SKS has a very tough ask
    It certainly should change the by election leaflets

    Ps. Come on not common - silly me
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,620

    Foxy said:

    Stereodog said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    One for @Heathener

    Last Night in Sivota. Literally. I am now checking out and moving on. The nomadic life continues…

    I'm also abroad atm and moving from place to place using only my native wit and a credit card.
    Looking forward to your daily travelblog.
    Well I'm going to the WW1 cemetery at Ypres today.
    It's a humbling thing. There are 55,000 names on the Menin Gate. But that's not the number of men killed in a war. It's not even the number of men killed in a campaign. It's just the number of men killed in a campaign whose bodies they couldn't find. No, it's not even that, because they ran out of space and had to continue the list at Tyne Cot (35,000 names). Incomprehensible.
    At the risk of getting the maths wrong, British men killed 887,858, divided by number of days the war lasted (1581) gives 560 killed a day for 4 years and 4 months. And that ignores injuries, many of which were horrific. And that's just us.

    Germany lost around 2 million, France 1.4 Million.

    On a flippant aside, you can see why there were so many unmarried aunts back in the 20's and 30's.

    Horrific.
    Europe has never truly recovered from World War 1

    Eg Russia is a shit-show now because of what happened in 1914-1917. The Great War also led pretty directly to Hitler and Nazism

    There is a good argument for saying World War 1 is the greatest avoidable tragedy in human history
    The conditions which created it weren’t, though.
    How likely is it that the clashing imperialisms and nationalisms would not still have led to mass conflict, even if it had been avoided in 1914 ?
    I understand all that, I’ve read the books. The Fashoda incident. Etc

    I just can’t buy a vision of human nature that says we had no choice but to wage a war that would kill 10m people for no obvious gain or reason and which would make the world a vastly sadder place, and which paved the way for Lenin, Stalin and Hitler. And then Mao

    Maybe it’s the cheery Boris-tolerating optimist in me, and I am sadly misguided. I’d rather be that than a desolating fatalist
    I'm not a fatalist - WWI was not inevitable - but appeals to human nature are unpersuasive when you consider the nature of the regimes around Europe at the time - and the fact that wars of conquest hadn't the same taboos attached as they do now.

    Human nature is corruptible, and for every cosmopolitan Vienna, with its cultural flowering, or pragmatic seeker of stability like Britain, there was an imperial Germany or Russia.

    The Russia you wrote of earlier is not the result of WWI - its nature has not massively changed since the Tsars.
    I think some kind of European war was inevitable. The French were itching to try and erase the effects of the Franco-Prussian War and recapture Alsace-Lorraine. The Germans were equally desperate to retain dominance over France. The Austro Hungarian Empire would have had to do something to put down the nascent nationalist movements within it's borders which would have angered other powers. Britain's involvement however was not inevitable. The Liberal Government was temperamentally and ideologically disinclined to intervene and would never have done so unless Belgium's neutrality was violated. That was the NATO like red line where to do nothing would have meant that all international treaties would become worthless.
    The German war plan was based on Britain not seeing Belgian neutrality being violated as a cause for war. Would we have joined in if it was a pure German/AH war with France/Russia? The Germans thought not.

    Similar in a way to Putin not believing that Ukraine would be backed by NATO.
    I agree very much with Stereodog here but would add the important factor that the war was very popular with the British Public at the outset. Think of the white feathers. So it would have been hard for any UK Government to hold back.

    It could have been a bit smarter though. I'm not sure the BEF added very much to allied strength; the naval blockade certainly did. Maybe we should have stuck to what we did well.
    It was Belgium that united the country on this. Without the violations of Belgium neutrality, the Germans could have sold the war as 1870 Part Deux.
    Yes, I'm sure that is right. The Germans were astonished that we would go to war over a piece of paper. It's a view that one can easily understand when you consider how disrespectful we were of neutral sovereign nations, then and on many occasions since.
    They were only astonished because they had convinced themselves that violating Belgian neutrality was vital to their war plan. Since it was vital, anyone opposing it was... wrong. Barbara Tuchman had some fun quotes on this process.

    The reason for Belgian neutrality was because of its key position on the coastline of the continent. Hence why the UK was a guarantor of its neutrality. Along with all the other major powers.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,880
    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Looks like Sunak agrees with me that if inflation is being driven by external forces, then there is not a high risk of a wage inflation spiral. Indeed the prospect of economic downturn due to excessive reduced demand because of suppression of discretionary consumer demand is quite high.

    Wage inflation is going to be a massive problem in the UK IMO. There are huge sections of industry that cannot find staff, so job seekers that have the right skills are becoming more demanding and existing employees are insisting on higher pay or the inference is that they will bugger off. It is cheaper to hike someone's pay than lose a key member of staff. The public sector will no doubt suffer similar pressure and industrial disputes.
    What you consider a problem, others consider desirable of course.

    So long as the wage inflation is due to supply and demand market economics at a time of full employment, as opposed to unions, strikes and politics while millions languish unemployed, then market driven pay rises are a good thing for those that get them.
    Problem is that by far the biggest chunk of our market is Europe. They now have the inexpensive labour; we don't. Brexit is a kind of weird inversion of Thatcherism, a weird kind of socialism.
    Quite a drop off in our car production. Down by 50% since the Brexit vote, and still going down.

    UK Risks Car Collapse as Jaguar Land Rover Looks Elsewhere for Batteries https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-26/uk-risks-car-collapse-as-jaguar-land-rover-looks-elsewhere-for-batteries
    I’ve been boring on about that since Brexit, and been told I’m plain wrong.
    Doesn’t look like it at the moment.
    Jaguar look to be particularly badly managed at the moment with a small and lacklustre range with no replacements in sight. Who the fuck is buying an XF at this point? Tata will probably end up selling the brand to SAIC or similar Chinese megacorp as touted move upmarket to being a Bentley competitor doesn't look remotely achievable.

    LR are in better shape with a good product line-up and a brand that is strong enough to overpower the comedy build quality. Although they do look to be on the verge of giving up in the powertrain business as Aston Martin have.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,574
    IshmaelZ said:

    Sky just reported from a meeting of pensioners and every one of them were delighted and surprised at the amount being provided

    Is this Rishi's col furlough moment ?

    Don't rip up those next pm betting slips just yet.
    Worth a fiver on Betfair, probably.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    Tory MP John Baron who already withdrew support from Boris Johnson this morning is now calling on Rishi Sunak to increase the minimum wage ahead of inflation ⬆️ and scrap corporation tax rises to pay for it 💷

    Several Tories still not happy with these new measures 👛

    https://twitter.com/MhariAurora/status/1529808305257951233
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    A fairly damning editorial on Boris from the Speccie. That will sting. He’s the ex editor and it’s probably his favourite read (he is much more a Spectator person than a telegraph man). He’s quite right to admire it, of course, it has truly great writers

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/boris-johnsons-guilt

    At the end it just about gives him one more chance, but it is withering

    "Johnson has further opened himself to charges of hypocrisy through his confected fury about his former spokeswoman Allegra Stratton, who resigned after being caught on camera making light of the parties that were being held in No. 10. There is no suggestion that she broke any rules. She was poking fun at the absurdity of the law and of being asked to defend such a ridiculous situation.

    Her laughter, Johnson declared, had caused national anger – an anger that he said he shared. He was shocked – shocked! – to find any such behaviour was happening in No. 10. Stratton resigned on principle, the only person in No. 10 to have done so."
    It's a very fair point, but not that the Spectator (Political Editor James Forsyth, married to Allegra Stratton) has a dog in the fight......
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 5,781
    Absolutely mental policy. £400 for every household.

    We had some of the highest savings ratios ever during the pandemic. Should've gone on those who actually need the cash ffs.

    As an aside, should've abolished standard charges to reward those not burning loads of energy. Can dress it up as a green policy while reducing demand.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,004
    Rishi gets very popular when he gives away lots of free money. The brief period where he stopped political gravity caught up with them. As a fiscal conservative I think this is a very bad idea in the long run.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,002

    Sky just reported from a meeting of pensioners and every one of them were delighted and surprised at the amount being provided

    Is this Rishi's col furlough moment ?

    For now, maybe, and it may be enough to get Rishi into No 10 if he gets his skates on.

    But the combination of the incoming energy price rises and this package are still going to leave an awful lot of people poorer.

    Less poorer than they would have been, and that's to be welcomed. And it looks like this package does the right thing to help fewer people properly. But a lot of people are going to be left poorer.

    And whilst that's probably inevitable, it's also not going to be a cause of delight.
    Protecting the vulnerable is the only thing any government can do and he has achieved that today

    However, the triple lock next year is going to cost a lot plus the benefit uprating so this is not over and is an issue that will be with us a long time
  • LDLFLDLF Posts: 143
    edited May 2022
    Scott_xP said:

    @Benpointer

    'Sure, but it just becomes ever clearer that Johnson is in power for power's sake. He'd nationalise all businesses, collectivise farms and run a 5-year plan if he thought he'd get him re-elected. '

    Nobody has put it better, Ben.

    Some still find it difficult to grasp though. Not that I have much to shout about. I voted for him to be Mayor of London. I thought he was pro-EU, naively of course. I assumed that he was because he said he was.

    Stupid, eh?

    On a previous thread the comparison between BoZo and Hitler was raised.

    Does he want to gas a million Jews? No.

    Does he want to stand on the steps at Nuremberg and have thousands of people chanting his name? Hell yes.
    Unfortunately I think the second point applies to most politicians.

    Most of us do not presume that we could do a good job of running the government of a nation state; it takes a particularly peculiar type of person not just to think they can do the job but to want to do it as well. Politicians are never 'people like us' at least to that extent. They are delusional, dysfunctional, but often well-meaning, wierdos.

    I'm glad, though, that commenters of all political persuasions (from Bojo cultists to those who see him as the Antichrist) can agree that Johnson doesn't want to gas millions of Jews. This is an important point of consensus on which a bright future can be built.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,089
    Dura_Ace said:

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: Understand around £10 billion of the £15bn spending announced today will come from borrowing

    Which shows that despite Sunak warnings if the political will is there Treasury **will** borrow to spend

    Remember that for future spending rows (defence, public sector pay etc)

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1529800470092464132

    It won't happen for defence, they don't like spending even borrowed money on that. The tories cut the attack submarine fleet from 7 to 5 this week retiring Trenchant and Talent.
    100% true.

    The Tories have long since stopped spending on Defence and Education. They have more or less given up on Pensions. I think this is interesting, because it has become increasingly hard to see what their (positive) distinctive economic policies might be.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,574
    Hope he gets some press for that. Nice story.
This discussion has been closed.