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Johnson trails Starmer by some margin on favourability – politicalbetting.com
Johnson trails Starmer by some margin on favourability – politicalbetting.com
One of the things that I think is important when looking at polling is to dig deeper and observe the trend. We all know that statistically individual polls do have a chance every so often of being out and this is why I really appreciate tables like the ones above from YouGov. Looking at the trends in tables like the above is more revealing.
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I approve it.
CON: 32% (-2)
LDM: 12% (+1)
GRN: 8% (+1)
REF: 3% (-1)
UKIP: 1% (-1)
via @KantarPublic, 19-23 May
(Changes with 11 Apr)
Down. Down. Down.
Fathers girlfriend finds my father collapsed this morning and in a bad way. Rings his doctors surgery as it literally is a two minute walk (his house backs onto it) to be told well he can come in to see the doctor at 5pm or ring an ambulance, which she already had. Surely in an emergency when that close to the house it wouldn't be too much to expect a little quicker assistance? Especially when its a suspected stroke and the adverts always tells us time is of the essence?
Should I lodge a complaint here?
Discount the cheerleaders, and the don't cares, and look at the negatives.
While that should be hugely worrying for the Tories (approaching 70% negative is about as bad as it gets) the fact that Starmer is >50% negative is why it is all on a knife edge.
If his number comes down into the low forties, I'd say we were into solid "Starmer next PM" territory.
Meanwhile LNER train services have been busier than ever before...
The vast bulk of the price you pay at the pump is tax, not the cost of the fuel itself, and due to the way it is taxed when the cost of the fuel itself goes up the Exchequer gets more money automatically anyway. So the Chancellor cutting fuel duty isn't the wrong thing to do, its the right thing to do, since it is stabilising prices absorbing part of the cost of the price rise, but without costing the Exchequer much if any money since taxes are the bulk of the price anyway and they're getting more money automatically already.
Any Chancellor who tries to wash his hands of fuel prices and says "not my problem" is wrong, because taxes are the overwhelming proportion of fuel prices in the first place. The ability to relatively stabilise the price when shocks occur is one of the only benefits of having it so heavily taxed in the first place as proportionately then the price rise doesn't seem so severe - Biden is struggling much more as gasoline prices in the States aren't taxed so much and so have risen proportionately much, much further.
PS it probably is good politics too since if the Chancellor didn't intervene when prices rose then graphics would have rapidly started going around showing exactly what proportion of the price is tax which would make it his problem. As it did when Blair and Brown faced the same situation and it hurt them politically, but not enough to make up for the fact that they were miles ahead of the Tories for other reasons and the issue went away. "I can't afford this bill and its all your fault as the bill is mostly tax" is different to "I can't afford this bill, but at least its not getting taxed as much".
Cutting fuel duty is probably the only thing Sunak has got right since Eat Out To Help Out.
And yes, I know that the tax consist of several taxes. But all it takes is some legislation.
But nothing will be done until the problem goes away in a a decade or 2.
Last Night in Sivota. Literally. I am now checking out and moving on. The nomadic life continues…
But: sympathies
So when the oil price spikes as it has, the Government gets an unplanned windfall of its own, and using some of its own unplanned windfall to absorb some of the price rise by cutting duty, is good economics and good politics.
It actually deals with the problem at source, and is better than adding something to welfare that will never be reversed.
903 Green
775 Con
69 TUSC
That's 4 Tory defences 4 losses since the locals.
The radical Hard Left Alliance strikes.
ALLISTER HEATH" (£)
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/05/25/tory-britain-faces-extinction-hands-radical-hard-left-alliance/
For more on this and other news visit http://trib.al/Rx0iR33
The more we target money to the people most in need at the bottom the quicker that money gets spent and gets to circulate through the economy. So they've not only wasted the money, they get zero political benefit - lose lose.
But I suppose my reflexive response is a mirror image of those on the right when we on the left say there's an incipient whiff of fascism about the government, its policies and the way it operates.
I find it hard to picture any possible Labour/Lib Dem, and maybe even Green, coalition being radically hard left. Mushily soft left, maybe. And that would suit me down to the ground.
A third Tory MP has called for Boris Johnson to step down in wake of Gray report
David Simmonds says while govt enjoys public confidence, 'the prime minister does not'
'It is time for him to step down so new leadership can take forward the important work of govt' https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1529748450182676480/photo/1
The girlfriend did the right thing in dialling 999.
I wonder whether the media bubble are about to be caught out by the no confidence ballot threshold being reached?
Despite all my cynicism it does seem like some Tory MPs were true to their word and genuinely were waiting for the Gray report to reach a verdict, rather than merely procrastinating.
If you want to increase taxes on the wealthy, or increase benefits for the poor, then make that argument, but that is not what fuel duty is for.
Cutting fuel duty relatively stabilises fuel prices, while being relatively revenue-neutral for the Exchequer. It is the right thing to do. If you want taxes rising on the richest, then just say so, don't try to warp commodities to do it for you.
Unfortunately 54 will not be enough to see him go unless the vonc sees a dramatic increase towards the 180 +
It may happen, it should happen, but I fear it will not happen, certainly not yet
But that is not their aim...
That's why children who are told they are naughty (as opposed to having behaved badly) or thick, begin to believe it, and act accordingly. It's why you get (far fewer these days) self-hating gays. And numerous other examples. Righties called fascist, begin to feel the need to defend stuff they wouldn't normally.
So. Your voter in Tiverton who votes Lib Dem, or in Spelthorne Green, maybe for the first time.
It puts the idea in their head that they are the outgroup.
@LouisDegenhardt is threatening to steal the spreadsheet
https://twitter.com/TomLarkinSky/status/1529750409052577792
Survive those, and he's here until the General Election barring an act of God.
This one is slightly unexpected. He’d been on my cool list. There are nearly 100 MPs who have already made public expressions that were less favourable to the PM than John Baron.
It’s one thing to write in and demand he goes but once that particular door has been opened I think a lot of Tory MPs will look at the situation differently and realise that they only really have this one chance to potentially save themselves at the election.
It’s probably a bit like the Brexit referendum. I’m sure there were loads of people who wouldn’t have wanted/demanded the referendum and would have carried on as it was however when it came down to actually voting they took the plunge and voted leave - either they weighed up the “arguments”, went with their guts or thought “fuck it, may as well get shot of this as might not get another go”.
So I’m hopeful that once we get to the tipping point there will be enough MOs make the decision to go in a different direction.
MPs will be taking soundings from constituents which I suspect will be absolutely dire.
I reckon opinion polls will also be bad for the tories in coming weeks. That Kantar this morning, with an increase in Labour's lead, was before Sue Gray.
I was quite surprised that Rishi cut fuel duty rather than VAT on fuel for exactly this reason - I thought he'd only want individuals to benefit, rather than businesses.
To speak up, or even to write a letter to the 1922, is a positive act, putting your head above the parapet. Not doing anything has the effect of supporting BoJo, but in a passive way. It's possible to still one's soul by saying "not yet".
In an actual VoC, they can't avoid the question. Do you endorse this man- yes or no? In the privacy of the voting booth, alone with their concience (I'm sure most still have one... they're just trained in ignoring it), how many will actually endorse Boris?
The people who say "he can't cut through" aren't thinking it through. To win the south you need to proffer a big pre-election tax cut and he's lined that up. To win the north you actually have to deliver the promised cash for levelling up. He's made promises which haven't been delivered, but could blame Bonzo for the delays if he managed to oust him.
What are the Tories realistic alternatives? Cosplay Thatcher? Vacant? Penny who?
https://twitter.com/driandunce/status/1529747308874711042
Government intervention would be better being targeted, to reduce the extent of the distortion, and then on the supply side - speeding up installation of more renewable capacity, for example.
The prices would have gone up higher had he not acted, and had he not acted then people would have been screaming about how high the prices are and that the price is all taxation. By acting, he shut that down and neutered that argument politically, but it didn't cost the Treasury much if any money since they were getting an unexpected windfall and they're using that windfall to stabilise the prices they're getting the windfall on.
Parliament goes into recess tomorrow until after the platinum jubilee, and mps will not only be at their constituencies but no doubt mixing at various parties (the irony) and getting it full on from angered voters (many loyal) and when they return, gather together and hopefully will decide to do the only decent and honest thing, and vote him out office
Don't know. Don't care either. Though if it was true I wonder if Harry Cole might wee himself laughing a little.
AEP has been concentrating on the debt disaster and dollar crisis facing the world in recent outings.
@TomLarkinSky
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24m
If any other rebellious Conservative MPs could just hold off releasing their statements until I get into the office that'd be great, thanks.
https://twitter.com/TomLarkinSky/status/1529750409052577792
Politicshome understands one more MP is considering going public
https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/two-more-tory-mps-call-on-boris-johnson-to-resign-in-wake-of-sue-grays-partygate-report
If the the egg and bacon brigade are struggling…
The focus on Partygate was yesterday, that was the "climax" that had been built up to. Realistically every day that passes now is a day where it slips down the agenda and MPs will be talking to constituents who have progressively less and less to say about Parties and more and more to say about Cost of Living and other issues instead.
The agenda is quite literally going to move on, and the Jubilee Recess is going to aid that I expect.
If MPs are going to act, the time to do so is now, not at some undefined later on date.
Her present was the final straw, a T-shirt saying “I went to my birthday party and all I got was a cheese sandwich, a £100 fine and this lousy t-shirt”.
Lies, damn lies, and statistics
Treatment needs a specialist team (there are different treatments for clots vs bleeds), and the key is speed of arrival of ambulance and time to hospital.
I wish you all well.
T20 is fine and proven. 65,000 people packed yesterday's Eliminator IPL match and the final is a 100,000 sell-out.
I have a pair of tickets for Day 3 next Saturday. Hopefully will see some cricket!
My own school has been barred from Lords since 1906 for trashing the pavilion.
Until or unless Johnson is removed this will not 'go away'. It's a cancer and it's eating away your party.
Westminster voting intention:
LAB: 38% (+1)
CON: 32% (-2)
LDEM: 13% (+2)
GRN: 8% (+1)
via @KantarPublic, 19 - 23 May
Chgs. w/ Apr
https://t.co/tbuWdJkYCg
SNP and Reform 3%
I’m sure I remember paying £50 for a non-Ashes TM at Lord’s a decade or so ago.
They are committing hari-kari at present
Hopefully it will push the letters over the 54