Last Night in Sivota. Literally. I am now checking out and moving on. The nomadic life continues…
I'm also abroad atm and moving from place to place using only my native wit and a credit card.
Looking forward to your daily travelblog.
Well I'm going to the WW1 cemetery at Ypres today.
It's a humbling thing. There are 55,000 names on the Menin Gate. But that's not the number of men killed in a war. It's not even the number of men killed in a campaign. It's just the number of men killed in a campaign whose bodies they couldn't find. No, it's not even that, because they ran out of space and had to continue the list at Tyne Cot (35,000 names). Incomprehensible.
At the risk of getting the maths wrong, British men killed 887,858, divided by number of days the war lasted (1581) gives 560 killed a day for 4 years and 4 months. And that ignores injuries, many of which were horrific. And that's just us.
Germany lost around 2 million, France 1.4 Million.
On a flippant aside, you can see why there were so many unmarried aunts back in the 20's and 30's.
Horrific.
Europe has never truly recovered from World War 1
Eg Russia is a shit-show now because of what happened in 1914-1917. The Great War also led pretty directly to Hitler and Nazism
There is a good argument for saying World War 1 is the greatest avoidable tragedy in human history
The conditions which created it weren’t, though. How likely is it that the clashing imperialisms and nationalisms would not still have led to mass conflict, even if it had been avoided in 1914 ?
I understand all that, I’ve read the books. The Fashoda incident. Etc
I just can’t buy a vision of human nature that says we had no choice but to wage a war that would kill 10m people for no obvious gain or reason and which would make the world a vastly sadder place, and which paved the way for Lenin, Stalin and Hitler. And then Mao
Maybe it’s the cheery Boris-tolerating optimist in me, and I am sadly misguided. I’d rather be that than a desolating fatalist
I agree with you. It's not like WW1 ended well, since despite those millions of dead it simply paved the way for WW2, the holocaust, the atomic bomb etc, so the argument that the UK had to get involved in order to avoid a worse outcome isn't really obvious in my view. Our involvement wasn't worth the slaughter of British youth and destruction of national wealth.
Someone would have an atom bomb by now. There's lots of scenarios where its invention was a lot more malign than what actually happened: say all the Germans on the Manhattan project stay in Germany and get the bomb before anyone else realises it's a possibility ..
Yes.
Scenario -
1) German wins WWI in short order because UK stays out and the German army makes it to Paris. 2) The war is good, war is God cult in Germany is reinforced. Seriously, read some of the stuff at the time. 3) Part of the German plan for WWI was to take territory from France and Belgium - to weaken France for the inevitable round 3 (aka WWII) 4) Around 1935 at the Kaiser Wilhelm Institute, some physicists.... 5) So you have a Germany that believes in war as a sacred testament, the A bomb and the requirement for another war with France. What could go wrong?
And heaven knows what happened to the kaiserliche und koenigliche Reich - with its uranium deposits in the Bohemian Massif.
Mm. £ 600 lump sum payment to all on means-tested benefits? I suspect bacchanalia on a scale even dwarfing Downing Street when that comes through.
I hope it is targeted to energy companies
It would be much easier if it just came off bills. The Council Tax rebate too. But it needs to be gift-wrapped and presented for political reasons.
Not living in the UK and no idea how the tax/benefits system works, is it possible that they could effectively send out a “voucher” to any household who earns less than a certain amount/pays under a certain level of tax.
This “voucher” is sent by the household to their energy company when their bill arrives and they only have to pay the difference (to reduce people taking the piss). The energy company claims the value of the vouchers back from the government.
This could be repeated whilst cost of living rise is an issue for low income households.
Was trying to think of a way of ensuring that as far as possible only those who really need help or are in the “just managing” levels get it so it’s not spread too thin and ending up where not vital.
This might be totally infeasible but I have no idea.
Sounds pretty good to me. Similar to US government giving people money during pandemic.
And yet I hear that Sunak can't play well in the red wall. Look, here is Free Money! Don't write him off as a challenger yet, he was at his strongest when he was handing out the cash.
A fairly damning editorial on Boris from the Speccie. That will sting. He’s the ex editor and it’s probably his favourite read (he is much more a Spectator person than a telegraph man). He’s quite right to admire it, of course, it has truly great writers
At the end it just about gives him one more chance, but it is withering
THanks for that - interedsting.
"Johnson has further opened himself to charges of hypocrisy through his confected fury about his former spokeswoman Allegra Stratton, who resigned after being caught on camera making light of the parties that were being held in No. 10. There is no suggestion that she broke any rules. She was poking fun at the absurdity of the law and of being asked to defend such a ridiculous situation.
Her laughter, Johnson declared, had caused national anger – an anger that he said he shared. He was shocked – shocked! – to find any such behaviour was happening in No. 10. Stratton resigned on principle, the only person in No. 10 to have done so."
I actually felt sorry for her. Johnson really is a lying scumbag.
And yet I hear that Sunak can't play well in the red wall. Look, here is Free Money! Don't write him off as a challenger yet, he was at his strongest when he was handing out the cash.
The only changes of PM in government in the last 50 years which have seen the governing party win a general election majority at the next general election were Thatcher to Major in 1990 and May to Johnson himself in 2019
Brown may have lost the election, but as today's announcements from Sunak show, his politics is alive and well.
Last Night in Sivota. Literally. I am now checking out and moving on. The nomadic life continues…
I'm also abroad atm and moving from place to place using only my native wit and a credit card.
Looking forward to your daily travelblog.
Well I'm going to the WW1 cemetery at Ypres today.
It's a humbling thing. There are 55,000 names on the Menin Gate. But that's not the number of men killed in a war. It's not even the number of men killed in a campaign. It's just the number of men killed in a campaign whose bodies they couldn't find. No, it's not even that, because they ran out of space and had to continue the list at Tyne Cot (35,000 names). Incomprehensible.
At the risk of getting the maths wrong, British men killed 887,858, divided by number of days the war lasted (1581) gives 560 killed a day for 4 years and 4 months. And that ignores injuries, many of which were horrific. And that's just us.
Germany lost around 2 million, France 1.4 Million.
On a flippant aside, you can see why there were so many unmarried aunts back in the 20's and 30's.
Horrific.
Europe has never truly recovered from World War 1
Eg Russia is a shit-show now because of what happened in 1914-1917. The Great War also led pretty directly to Hitler and Nazism
There is a good argument for saying World War 1 is the greatest avoidable tragedy in human history
The conditions which created it weren’t, though. How likely is it that the clashing imperialisms and nationalisms would not still have led to mass conflict, even if it had been avoided in 1914 ?
I understand all that, I’ve read the books. The Fashoda incident. Etc
I just can’t buy a vision of human nature that says we had no choice but to wage a war that would kill 10m people for no obvious gain or reason and which would make the world a vastly sadder place, and which paved the way for Lenin, Stalin and Hitler. And then Mao
Maybe it’s the cheery Boris-tolerating optimist in me, and I am sadly misguided. I’d rather be that than a desolating fatalist
I agree with you. It's not like WW1 ended well, since despite those millions of dead it simply paved the way for WW2, the holocaust, the atomic bomb etc, so the argument that the UK had to get involved in order to avoid a worse outcome isn't really obvious in my view. Our involvement wasn't worth the slaughter of British youth and destruction of national wealth.
Someone would have an atom bomb by now. There's lots of scenarios where its invention was a lot more malign than what actually happened: say all the Germans on the Manhattan project stay in Germany and get the bomb before anyone else realises it's a possibility ..
Yes.
Scenario -
1) German wins WWI in short order because UK stays out and the German army makes it to Paris. 2) The war is good, war is God cult in Germany is reinforced. Seriously, read some of the stuff at the time. 3) Part of the German plan for WWI was to take territory from France and Belgium - to weaken France for the inevitable round 3 (aka WWII) 4) Around 1935 at the Kaiser Wilhelm Institute, some physicists.... 5) So you have a Germany that believes in war as a sacred testament, the A bomb and the requirement for another war with France. What could go wrong?
OR, Germany wins a small short war in Europe, this freaks out the UK and USA, which unite and pursue deterrent weapons, and they develop nukes in the early 30s, and Germany is dissuaded from any more wars
Thus avoiding Hitler AND the Russian Revolution, and all of communism
There are a trillion What Ifs
One of the most tragic is Russia. Through 1890-1914 it was speedily industrialising, a middle class was developing, and the state was liberalising. It was on course to become an actual western-style liberal democracy in a few decades, with a pretty high standard of living
More tax for more welfare! Just like Labour. Rishi may as well ask Rachel Reeves to come over and take over as Chancellor.
What's your alternative? I do recognise the political unhappiness with handing out money to the feckless poor. Its just that unless something is done said poor will be dying and posh people don't like having to step over the bodies.
Breaking : Nazanin Ratcliffe may decide to stand as a parliamentary candidate in Johnson's Uxbridge & Ruislip Seat at the next General Election in order to get rid of Johnson once and for all !! https://twitter.com/Bluddybrilliant/status/1529759994601684995
Another independent to split the Left vote?
If Labour is smart they'll reach a Tatton type agreement here.
Not good news for Boris, if so, but I'm not convinced that Nazanin would be a slam dunk in the way that Martin Bell was against Neil Hamilton. Yep, she has a grievance that may resonate a bit, but its essentially personal. Not sure voters will really go for it.
They might. The story that Johnson's incompetence led to her longer than necessary incarceration might resonate
I'm not sure its true though (or not the real reason her release was delayed). She was released entirely after the bribe (sorry debt) was settled. Johnson was an arse for saying what he did*, but I don't believe it cost her a minutes freedom.
*I am probably totally wrong but one wonders where the stories of her activities comes from. Is she entirely innocent? (Probably - the Iranian's have almost certainly made shit up)
More importantly, does she want everyone poring critically over her story, as would inevitably happen if she stands for office?
As someone who’s lived abroad, and is well aware of the nuances around dual nationality, I think her case is a really bad one to use to bash the government. The British government, anyway.
It's not so much nuance, then the following -
1) If you are a dual national, in one of the countries that you have citizenship of, that country will treat you as a full citizen. 2) You, almost certainly, don't have any consular rights to get help from any of the *other* countries you have citizenship for.
Back in the day, when I worked for an oil company, there was a check internally about sending people with nationality to certain countries. Basically, the country in question might pull stuff on "their" nationals that they wouldn't try with foreigners.
Indeed. In my mind it’s quite straightforward, but not necessarily in the minds of those who wish to uncritically bash Mr Johnson.
There’s plenty not to like about the guy, and despite being critical of both this case and the birthday cake, I don’t particularly like him either.
If you’re going to bash him and his government, then do so over tax rises, inflation and living costs - not over trivialities and things over which he has no control.
He has control over what he says, surely. And if you think fundamental dishonesty is a triviality you are yourself profoundly corrupt.
And the cost of living is actually not his fault and not something he has dealt with particularly badly.
The cost of living is not his fault.
The way he and Rishi chose to freeze tax thresholds so people would have less money from their work, increase taxation by 1.25% payable twice so 2.5% in total so people would have less money even nominally from their work, all while further feathering the welfare state for the elderly so that some people could get an inheritance they hadn't worked for on the other hand is his fault and was handling it badly.
If he'd done nothing and just not raised NI that would have been a better way to resolve the cost of living issue, instead he added insult to injury and for that he deserves to go now.
That's all within the bounds of stuff for which he deserves to lose an election. For lying to Parliament he deserves to go now and in disgrace. If you think that's a triviality, fine, but I would never enter into any sort of business transaction with you if that's the value you attach to honesty.
I value integrity highly, but I don't believe he lied.
I also don't believe "Sir Beer Korma" lied either, and even if he's fined, I still don't believe he did either.
A lie means saying something you know to be untrue, and I don't for one second believe he thought that having sandwiches at work while being wished a happy birthday by his work colleagues was a "party". I don't for one second believe he thought saying farewell at work to a work colleague was a "party" either. And I don't believe for one second that Keir Starmer thought that having a Korma and a beer at the end of a day's campaigning was either.
I don't see any lies, and if there's no lies, then he hasn't lied to Parliament. And that applies equally in my mind to both leaders who have both been accused of lying.
Oh dear. I award you this weeks Gullible Fool of The Week Award aka Boris Johnson's Favourite Lapdog Award.
Last Night in Sivota. Literally. I am now checking out and moving on. The nomadic life continues…
I'm also abroad atm and moving from place to place using only my native wit and a credit card.
Looking forward to your daily travelblog.
Well I'm going to the WW1 cemetery at Ypres today.
It's a humbling thing. There are 55,000 names on the Menin Gate. But that's not the number of men killed in a war. It's not even the number of men killed in a campaign. It's just the number of men killed in a campaign whose bodies they couldn't find. No, it's not even that, because they ran out of space and had to continue the list at Tyne Cot (35,000 names). Incomprehensible.
At the risk of getting the maths wrong, British men killed 887,858, divided by number of days the war lasted (1581) gives 560 killed a day for 4 years and 4 months. And that ignores injuries, many of which were horrific. And that's just us.
Germany lost around 2 million, France 1.4 Million.
On a flippant aside, you can see why there were so many unmarried aunts back in the 20's and 30's.
Horrific.
Europe has never truly recovered from World War 1
Eg Russia is a shit-show now because of what happened in 1914-1917. The Great War also led pretty directly to Hitler and Nazism
There is a good argument for saying World War 1 is the greatest avoidable tragedy in human history
The conditions which created it weren’t, though. How likely is it that the clashing imperialisms and nationalisms would not still have led to mass conflict, even if it had been avoided in 1914 ?
I understand all that, I’ve read the books. The Fashoda incident. Etc
I just can’t buy a vision of human nature that says we had no choice but to wage a war that would kill 10m people for no obvious gain or reason and which would make the world a vastly sadder place, and which paved the way for Lenin, Stalin and Hitler. And then Mao
Maybe it’s the cheery Boris-tolerating optimist in me, and I am sadly misguided. I’d rather be that than a desolating fatalist
I agree with you. It's not like WW1 ended well, since despite those millions of dead it simply paved the way for WW2, the holocaust, the atomic bomb etc, so the argument that the UK had to get involved in order to avoid a worse outcome isn't really obvious in my view. Our involvement wasn't worth the slaughter of British youth and destruction of national wealth.
Someone would have an atom bomb by now. There's lots of scenarios where its invention was a lot more malign than what actually happened: say all the Germans on the Manhattan project stay in Germany and get the bomb before anyone else realises it's a possibility ..
Yes.
Scenario -
1) German wins WWI in short order because UK stays out and the German army makes it to Paris. 2) The war is good, war is God cult in Germany is reinforced. Seriously, read some of the stuff at the time. 3) Part of the German plan for WWI was to take territory from France and Belgium - to weaken France for the inevitable round 3 (aka WWII) 4) Around 1935 at the Kaiser Wilhelm Institute, some physicists.... 5) So you have a Germany that believes in war as a sacred testament, the A bomb and the requirement for another war with France. What could go wrong?
OR, Germany wins a small short war in Europe, this freaks out the UK and USA, which unite and pursue deterrent weapons, and they develop nukes in the early 30s, and Germany is dissuaded from any more wars
Thus avoiding Hitler AND the Russian Revolution, and all of communism
There are a trillion What Ifs
One of the most tragic is Russia. Through 1890-1914 it was speedily industrialising, a middle class was developing, and the state was liberalising. It was on course to become an actual western-style liberal democracy in a few decades, with a pretty high standard of living
Then, WW1 and Lenin
If World War 1 had not happened, World War 2 wouldn't have happened. Of course you can come up with a silly scenario where it did - you can come up with a silly scenario where everyone develops gills and lives in the sea.
Last Night in Sivota. Literally. I am now checking out and moving on. The nomadic life continues…
I'm also abroad atm and moving from place to place using only my native wit and a credit card.
Looking forward to your daily travelblog.
Well I'm going to the WW1 cemetery at Ypres today.
It's a humbling thing. There are 55,000 names on the Menin Gate. But that's not the number of men killed in a war. It's not even the number of men killed in a campaign. It's just the number of men killed in a campaign whose bodies they couldn't find. No, it's not even that, because they ran out of space and had to continue the list at Tyne Cot (35,000 names). Incomprehensible.
At the risk of getting the maths wrong, British men killed 887,858, divided by number of days the war lasted (1581) gives 560 killed a day for 4 years and 4 months. And that ignores injuries, many of which were horrific. And that's just us.
Germany lost around 2 million, France 1.4 Million.
On a flippant aside, you can see why there were so many unmarried aunts back in the 20's and 30's.
Horrific.
Europe has never truly recovered from World War 1
Eg Russia is a shit-show now because of what happened in 1914-1917. The Great War also led pretty directly to Hitler and Nazism
There is a good argument for saying World War 1 is the greatest avoidable tragedy in human history
The conditions which created it weren’t, though. How likely is it that the clashing imperialisms and nationalisms would not still have led to mass conflict, even if it had been avoided in 1914 ?
I understand all that, I’ve read the books. The Fashoda incident. Etc
I just can’t buy a vision of human nature that says we had no choice but to wage a war that would kill 10m people for no obvious gain or reason and which would make the world a vastly sadder place, and which paved the way for Lenin, Stalin and Hitler. And then Mao
Maybe it’s the cheery Boris-tolerating optimist in me, and I am sadly misguided. I’d rather be that than a desolating fatalist
I agree with you. It's not like WW1 ended well, since despite those millions of dead it simply paved the way for WW2, the holocaust, the atomic bomb etc, so the argument that the UK had to get involved in order to avoid a worse outcome isn't really obvious in my view. Our involvement wasn't worth the slaughter of British youth and destruction of national wealth.
Someone would have an atom bomb by now. There's lots of scenarios where its invention was a lot more malign than what actually happened: say all the Germans on the Manhattan project stay in Germany and get the bomb before anyone else realises it's a possibility ..
Yes.
Scenario -
1) German wins WWI in short order because UK stays out and the German army makes it to Paris. 2) The war is good, war is God cult in Germany is reinforced. Seriously, read some of the stuff at the time. 3) Part of the German plan for WWI was to take territory from France and Belgium - to weaken France for the inevitable round 3 (aka WWII) 4) Around 1935 at the Kaiser Wilhelm Institute, some physicists.... 5) So you have a Germany that believes in war as a sacred testament, the A bomb and the requirement for another war with France. What could go wrong?
OR, Germany wins a small short war in Europe, this freaks out the UK and USA, which unite and pursue deterrent weapons, and they develop nukes in the early 30s, and Germany is dissuaded from any more wars
Thus avoiding Hitler AND the Russian Revolution, and all of communism
There are a trillion What Ifs
One of the most tragic is Russia. Through 1890-1914 it was speedily industrialising, a middle class was developing, and the state was liberalising. It was on course to become an actual western-style liberal democracy in a few decades, with a pretty high standard of living
Then, WW1 and Lenin
Germany was on a course. One where war was how you Win. Until they lost one. If they had won WWI - well, they were planning for round 3 before they got round 2 done (1870 being round 1).
As to Russia. The economic growth led to the revolution - once you have a mass of people who have enough to eat, so they can spend time asking why the government is fucking awful..... Looking at the post-Tsarist government, Kerensky and Co. were not going to last. Sadly. The most probable thing instead of the Bolsheviks is fragmented Russian Empire of with White Warlords vs Peoples Republics..... Think China....
Last Night in Sivota. Literally. I am now checking out and moving on. The nomadic life continues…
I'm also abroad atm and moving from place to place using only my native wit and a credit card.
Looking forward to your daily travelblog.
Well I'm going to the WW1 cemetery at Ypres today.
It's a humbling thing. There are 55,000 names on the Menin Gate. But that's not the number of men killed in a war. It's not even the number of men killed in a campaign. It's just the number of men killed in a campaign whose bodies they couldn't find. No, it's not even that, because they ran out of space and had to continue the list at Tyne Cot (35,000 names). Incomprehensible.
At the risk of getting the maths wrong, British men killed 887,858, divided by number of days the war lasted (1581) gives 560 killed a day for 4 years and 4 months. And that ignores injuries, many of which were horrific. And that's just us.
Germany lost around 2 million, France 1.4 Million.
On a flippant aside, you can see why there were so many unmarried aunts back in the 20's and 30's.
Horrific.
Europe has never truly recovered from World War 1
Eg Russia is a shit-show now because of what happened in 1914-1917. The Great War also led pretty directly to Hitler and Nazism
There is a good argument for saying World War 1 is the greatest avoidable tragedy in human history
The conditions which created it weren’t, though. How likely is it that the clashing imperialisms and nationalisms would not still have led to mass conflict, even if it had been avoided in 1914 ?
I understand all that, I’ve read the books. The Fashoda incident. Etc
I just can’t buy a vision of human nature that says we had no choice but to wage a war that would kill 10m people for no obvious gain or reason and which would make the world a vastly sadder place, and which paved the way for Lenin, Stalin and Hitler. And then Mao
Maybe it’s the cheery Boris-tolerating optimist in me, and I am sadly misguided. I’d rather be that than a desolating fatalist
I agree with you. It's not like WW1 ended well, since despite those millions of dead it simply paved the way for WW2, the holocaust, the atomic bomb etc, so the argument that the UK had to get involved in order to avoid a worse outcome isn't really obvious in my view. Our involvement wasn't worth the slaughter of British youth and destruction of national wealth.
Someone would have an atom bomb by now. There's lots of scenarios where its invention was a lot more malign than what actually happened: say all the Germans on the Manhattan project stay in Germany and get the bomb before anyone else realises it's a possibility ..
Yes.
Scenario -
1) German wins WWI in short order because UK stays out and the German army makes it to Paris. 2) The war is good, war is God cult in Germany is reinforced. Seriously, read some of the stuff at the time. 3) Part of the German plan for WWI was to take territory from France and Belgium - to weaken France for the inevitable round 3 (aka WWII) 4) Around 1935 at the Kaiser Wilhelm Institute, some physicists.... 5) So you have a Germany that believes in war as a sacred testament, the A bomb and the requirement for another war with France. What could go wrong?
OR, Germany wins a small short war in Europe, this freaks out the UK and USA, which unite and pursue deterrent weapons, and they develop nukes in the early 30s, and Germany is dissuaded from any more wars
Thus avoiding Hitler AND the Russian Revolution, and all of communism
There are a trillion What Ifs
One of the most tragic is Russia. Through 1890-1914 it was speedily industrialising, a middle class was developing, and the state was liberalising. It was on course to become an actual western-style liberal democracy in a few decades, with a pretty high standard of living
Then, WW1 and Lenin
"It was on course to become an actual western-style liberal democracy in a few decades"
Last Night in Sivota. Literally. I am now checking out and moving on. The nomadic life continues…
I'm also abroad atm and moving from place to place using only my native wit and a credit card.
Looking forward to your daily travelblog.
Well I'm going to the WW1 cemetery at Ypres today.
It's a humbling thing. There are 55,000 names on the Menin Gate. But that's not the number of men killed in a war. It's not even the number of men killed in a campaign. It's just the number of men killed in a campaign whose bodies they couldn't find. No, it's not even that, because they ran out of space and had to continue the list at Tyne Cot (35,000 names). Incomprehensible.
At the risk of getting the maths wrong, British men killed 887,858, divided by number of days the war lasted (1581) gives 560 killed a day for 4 years and 4 months. And that ignores injuries, many of which were horrific. And that's just us.
Germany lost around 2 million, France 1.4 Million.
On a flippant aside, you can see why there were so many unmarried aunts back in the 20's and 30's.
Horrific.
Europe has never truly recovered from World War 1
Eg Russia is a shit-show now because of what happened in 1914-1917. The Great War also led pretty directly to Hitler and Nazism
There is a good argument for saying World War 1 is the greatest avoidable tragedy in human history
The conditions which created it weren’t, though. How likely is it that the clashing imperialisms and nationalisms would not still have led to mass conflict, even if it had been avoided in 1914 ?
I understand all that, I’ve read the books. The Fashoda incident. Etc
I just can’t buy a vision of human nature that says we had no choice but to wage a war that would kill 10m people for no obvious gain or reason and which would make the world a vastly sadder place, and which paved the way for Lenin, Stalin and Hitler. And then Mao
Maybe it’s the cheery Boris-tolerating optimist in me, and I am sadly misguided. I’d rather be that than a desolating fatalist
I agree with you. It's not like WW1 ended well, since despite those millions of dead it simply paved the way for WW2, the holocaust, the atomic bomb etc, so the argument that the UK had to get involved in order to avoid a worse outcome isn't really obvious in my view. Our involvement wasn't worth the slaughter of British youth and destruction of national wealth.
Someone would have an atom bomb by now. There's lots of scenarios where its invention was a lot more malign than what actually happened: say all the Germans on the Manhattan project stay in Germany and get the bomb before anyone else realises it's a possibility ..
Yes.
Scenario -
1) German wins WWI in short order because UK stays out and the German army makes it to Paris. 2) The war is good, war is God cult in Germany is reinforced. Seriously, read some of the stuff at the time. 3) Part of the German plan for WWI was to take territory from France and Belgium - to weaken France for the inevitable round 3 (aka WWII) 4) Around 1935 at the Kaiser Wilhelm Institute, some physicists.... 5) So you have a Germany that believes in war as a sacred testament, the A bomb and the requirement for another war with France. What could go wrong?
OR, Germany wins a small short war in Europe, this freaks out the UK and USA, which unite and pursue deterrent weapons, and they develop nukes in the early 30s, and Germany is dissuaded from any more wars
Thus avoiding Hitler AND the Russian Revolution, and all of communism
There are a trillion What Ifs
One of the most tragic is Russia. Through 1890-1914 it was speedily industrialising, a middle class was developing, and the state was liberalising. It was on course to become an actual western-style liberal democracy in a few decades, with a pretty high standard of living
Then, WW1 and Lenin
If World War 1 had not happened, World War 2 wouldn't have happened. Of course you can come up with a silly scenario where it did - you can come up with a silly scenario where everyone develops gills and lives in the sea.
Alternative histories are pretty ridiculous. An infinity of imponderables. But they are also entertaining and irresistible for anyone interested in history and/or politics
Jeez. Good job we didn't get Corbyn in pissing money up the wall like there's no tomorrow.
Its a naked bung aimed at reversing the polling
I would prefer a less distorted energy market that meant gas bills followed the price of wholesale gas, which we learned the other day is very low. Having some free money is nice, but it's the Government 'solving' a problem of their own making.
Last Night in Sivota. Literally. I am now checking out and moving on. The nomadic life continues…
I'm also abroad atm and moving from place to place using only my native wit and a credit card.
Looking forward to your daily travelblog.
Well I'm going to the WW1 cemetery at Ypres today.
It's a humbling thing. There are 55,000 names on the Menin Gate. But that's not the number of men killed in a war. It's not even the number of men killed in a campaign. It's just the number of men killed in a campaign whose bodies they couldn't find. No, it's not even that, because they ran out of space and had to continue the list at Tyne Cot (35,000 names). Incomprehensible.
At the risk of getting the maths wrong, British men killed 887,858, divided by number of days the war lasted (1581) gives 560 killed a day for 4 years and 4 months. And that ignores injuries, many of which were horrific. And that's just us.
Germany lost around 2 million, France 1.4 Million.
On a flippant aside, you can see why there were so many unmarried aunts back in the 20's and 30's.
Horrific.
Europe has never truly recovered from World War 1
Eg Russia is a shit-show now because of what happened in 1914-1917. The Great War also led pretty directly to Hitler and Nazism
There is a good argument for saying World War 1 is the greatest avoidable tragedy in human history
The conditions which created it weren’t, though. How likely is it that the clashing imperialisms and nationalisms would not still have led to mass conflict, even if it had been avoided in 1914 ?
I understand all that, I’ve read the books. The Fashoda incident. Etc
I just can’t buy a vision of human nature that says we had no choice but to wage a war that would kill 10m people for no obvious gain or reason and which would make the world a vastly sadder place, and which paved the way for Lenin, Stalin and Hitler. And then Mao
Maybe it’s the cheery Boris-tolerating optimist in me, and I am sadly misguided. I’d rather be that than a desolating fatalist
I agree with you. It's not like WW1 ended well, since despite those millions of dead it simply paved the way for WW2, the holocaust, the atomic bomb etc, so the argument that the UK had to get involved in order to avoid a worse outcome isn't really obvious in my view. Our involvement wasn't worth the slaughter of British youth and destruction of national wealth.
Someone would have an atom bomb by now. There's lots of scenarios where its invention was a lot more malign than what actually happened: say all the Germans on the Manhattan project stay in Germany and get the bomb before anyone else realises it's a possibility ..
Yes.
Scenario -
1) German wins WWI in short order because UK stays out and the German army makes it to Paris. 2) The war is good, war is God cult in Germany is reinforced. Seriously, read some of the stuff at the time. 3) Part of the German plan for WWI was to take territory from France and Belgium - to weaken France for the inevitable round 3 (aka WWII) 4) Around 1935 at the Kaiser Wilhelm Institute, some physicists.... 5) So you have a Germany that believes in war as a sacred testament, the A bomb and the requirement for another war with France. What could go wrong?
OR, Germany wins a small short war in Europe, this freaks out the UK and USA, which unite and pursue deterrent weapons, and they develop nukes in the early 30s, and Germany is dissuaded from any more wars
Thus avoiding Hitler AND the Russian Revolution, and all of communism
There are a trillion What Ifs
One of the most tragic is Russia. Through 1890-1914 it was speedily industrialising, a middle class was developing, and the state was liberalising. It was on course to become an actual western-style liberal democracy in a few decades, with a pretty high standard of living
Then, WW1 and Lenin
"It was on course to become an actual western-style liberal democracy in a few decades"
Haha, no
Who knows. Pre Great War Russia was certainly growing very fast, and getting rich quick
“Economic growth rates averaged 9 per cent from 1894–1900 and 5 per cent from 1900–1914. These were huge rates of change.”
Reminiscent of China in the last decades, which nearly became a nice, friendly country
Looks like Sunak agrees with me that if inflation is being driven by external forces, then there is not a high risk of a wage inflation spiral. Indeed the prospect of economic downturn due to excessive reduced demand because of suppression of discretionary consumer demand is quite high.
"How's Carrie" trending on twitter for some reason.
"I see 'How's Carrie' is trending due to rumours she has left Johnson and is shacked up with racist posh boy Zak Goldsmith. no idea if this is true or not."
It truly is shit politics by Bonzo. Can't help people. Its their fault. Would hard BP. Unconservative. Can't afford it. Labour want to tax business. Oh ok, lets do it and expect people will forget the months we spent saying no.
Last Night in Sivota. Literally. I am now checking out and moving on. The nomadic life continues…
I'm also abroad atm and moving from place to place using only my native wit and a credit card.
Looking forward to your daily travelblog.
Well I'm going to the WW1 cemetery at Ypres today.
It's a humbling thing. There are 55,000 names on the Menin Gate. But that's not the number of men killed in a war. It's not even the number of men killed in a campaign. It's just the number of men killed in a campaign whose bodies they couldn't find. No, it's not even that, because they ran out of space and had to continue the list at Tyne Cot (35,000 names). Incomprehensible.
At the risk of getting the maths wrong, British men killed 887,858, divided by number of days the war lasted (1581) gives 560 killed a day for 4 years and 4 months. And that ignores injuries, many of which were horrific. And that's just us.
Germany lost around 2 million, France 1.4 Million.
On a flippant aside, you can see why there were so many unmarried aunts back in the 20's and 30's.
Horrific.
Europe has never truly recovered from World War 1
Eg Russia is a shit-show now because of what happened in 1914-1917. The Great War also led pretty directly to Hitler and Nazism
There is a good argument for saying World War 1 is the greatest avoidable tragedy in human history
The conditions which created it weren’t, though. How likely is it that the clashing imperialisms and nationalisms would not still have led to mass conflict, even if it had been avoided in 1914 ?
I understand all that, I’ve read the books. The Fashoda incident. Etc
I just can’t buy a vision of human nature that says we had no choice but to wage a war that would kill 10m people for no obvious gain or reason and which would make the world a vastly sadder place, and which paved the way for Lenin, Stalin and Hitler. And then Mao
Maybe it’s the cheery Boris-tolerating optimist in me, and I am sadly misguided. I’d rather be that than a desolating fatalist
I agree with you. It's not like WW1 ended well, since despite those millions of dead it simply paved the way for WW2, the holocaust, the atomic bomb etc, so the argument that the UK had to get involved in order to avoid a worse outcome isn't really obvious in my view. Our involvement wasn't worth the slaughter of British youth and destruction of national wealth.
Someone would have an atom bomb by now. There's lots of scenarios where its invention was a lot more malign than what actually happened: say all the Germans on the Manhattan project stay in Germany and get the bomb before anyone else realises it's a possibility ..
Yes.
Scenario -
1) German wins WWI in short order because UK stays out and the German army makes it to Paris. 2) The war is good, war is God cult in Germany is reinforced. Seriously, read some of the stuff at the time. 3) Part of the German plan for WWI was to take territory from France and Belgium - to weaken France for the inevitable round 3 (aka WWII) 4) Around 1935 at the Kaiser Wilhelm Institute, some physicists.... 5) So you have a Germany that believes in war as a sacred testament, the A bomb and the requirement for another war with France. What could go wrong?
OR, Germany wins a small short war in Europe, this freaks out the UK and USA, which unite and pursue deterrent weapons, and they develop nukes in the early 30s, and Germany is dissuaded from any more wars
Thus avoiding Hitler AND the Russian Revolution, and all of communism
There are a trillion What Ifs
One of the most tragic is Russia. Through 1890-1914 it was speedily industrialising, a middle class was developing, and the state was liberalising. It was on course to become an actual western-style liberal democracy in a few decades, with a pretty high standard of living
Then, WW1 and Lenin
"It was on course to become an actual western-style liberal democracy in a few decades"
Haha, no
Who knows. Pre Great War Russia was certainly growing very fast, and getting rich quick
“Economic growth rates averaged 9 per cent from 1894–1900 and 5 per cent from 1900–1914. These were huge rates of change.”
Reminiscent of China in the last decades, which nearly became a nice, friendly country
Rapid industrialisation and economic growth doesn't lead to liberal democracy.
There is a causal link the other way around, liberal democracy often leads to growth, but the relationship isn't perfect and the reverse definitely isn't true.
I'm a bit confused by your China comment; I'd have thought China's trajectory was a case in point of how epic growth doesn't bring liberal democracy.
Last Night in Sivota. Literally. I am now checking out and moving on. The nomadic life continues…
I'm also abroad atm and moving from place to place using only my native wit and a credit card.
Looking forward to your daily travelblog.
Well I'm going to the WW1 cemetery at Ypres today.
It's a humbling thing. There are 55,000 names on the Menin Gate. But that's not the number of men killed in a war. It's not even the number of men killed in a campaign. It's just the number of men killed in a campaign whose bodies they couldn't find. No, it's not even that, because they ran out of space and had to continue the list at Tyne Cot (35,000 names). Incomprehensible.
At the risk of getting the maths wrong, British men killed 887,858, divided by number of days the war lasted (1581) gives 560 killed a day for 4 years and 4 months. And that ignores injuries, many of which were horrific. And that's just us.
Germany lost around 2 million, France 1.4 Million.
On a flippant aside, you can see why there were so many unmarried aunts back in the 20's and 30's.
Horrific.
Europe has never truly recovered from World War 1
Eg Russia is a shit-show now because of what happened in 1914-1917. The Great War also led pretty directly to Hitler and Nazism
There is a good argument for saying World War 1 is the greatest avoidable tragedy in human history
The conditions which created it weren’t, though. How likely is it that the clashing imperialisms and nationalisms would not still have led to mass conflict, even if it had been avoided in 1914 ?
I understand all that, I’ve read the books. The Fashoda incident. Etc
I just can’t buy a vision of human nature that says we had no choice but to wage a war that would kill 10m people for no obvious gain or reason and which would make the world a vastly sadder place, and which paved the way for Lenin, Stalin and Hitler. And then Mao
Maybe it’s the cheery Boris-tolerating optimist in me, and I am sadly misguided. I’d rather be that than a desolating fatalist
I agree with you. It's not like WW1 ended well, since despite those millions of dead it simply paved the way for WW2, the holocaust, the atomic bomb etc, so the argument that the UK had to get involved in order to avoid a worse outcome isn't really obvious in my view. Our involvement wasn't worth the slaughter of British youth and destruction of national wealth.
Someone would have an atom bomb by now. There's lots of scenarios where its invention was a lot more malign than what actually happened: say all the Germans on the Manhattan project stay in Germany and get the bomb before anyone else realises it's a possibility ..
Yes.
Scenario -
1) German wins WWI in short order because UK stays out and the German army makes it to Paris. 2) The war is good, war is God cult in Germany is reinforced. Seriously, read some of the stuff at the time. 3) Part of the German plan for WWI was to take territory from France and Belgium - to weaken France for the inevitable round 3 (aka WWII) 4) Around 1935 at the Kaiser Wilhelm Institute, some physicists.... 5) So you have a Germany that believes in war as a sacred testament, the A bomb and the requirement for another war with France. What could go wrong?
OR, Germany wins a small short war in Europe, this freaks out the UK and USA, which unite and pursue deterrent weapons, and they develop nukes in the early 30s, and Germany is dissuaded from any more wars
Thus avoiding Hitler AND the Russian Revolution, and all of communism
There are a trillion What Ifs
One of the most tragic is Russia. Through 1890-1914 it was speedily industrialising, a middle class was developing, and the state was liberalising. It was on course to become an actual western-style liberal democracy in a few decades, with a pretty high standard of living
Then, WW1 and Lenin
Germany was on a course. One where war was how you Win. Until they lost one. If they had won WWI - well, they were planning for round 3 before they got round 2 done (1870 being round 1).
As to Russia. The economic growth led to the revolution - once you have a mass of people who have enough to eat, so they can spend time asking why the government is fucking awful..... Looking at the post-Tsarist government, Kerensky and Co. were not going to last. Sadly. The most probable thing instead of the Bolsheviks is fragmented Russian Empire of with White Warlords vs Peoples Republics..... Think China....
God. You’re all so DEPRESSING and FATALIST. “Moan moan moan nazism was inevitable and they were already building gas chambers in 1840”
Look. This is where I AM. Drinking WINE. Life is GOOD. Stop being BLEAK
"How's Carrie" trending on twitter for some reason.
"I see 'How's Carrie' is trending due to rumours she has left Johnson and is shacked up with racist posh boy Zak Goldsmith. no idea if this is true or not."
We better have a whip 'round to fund some new wallpaper in that case.
There would be a lovely scene if Boris returns from parliament to No 10 and find Carrie has packed and gone. Evening arrives and he stumbles to the fridge and all that’s in there is a can of beer and a microwave curry.
It truly is shit politics by Bonzo. Can't help people. Its their fault. Would hard BP. Unconservative. Can't afford it. Labour want to tax business. Oh ok, lets do it and expect people will forget the months we spent saying no.
The only voters Johnson cares about (thick as fuck leavers in shitholes with drive through Greggs) will have forgotten to the small extent they ever knew. All they'll see is free Lambert & Butler money.
It truly is shit politics by Bonzo. Can't help people. Its their fault. Would hard BP. Unconservative. Can't afford it. Labour want to tax business. Oh ok, lets do it and expect people will forget the months we spent saying no.
It is many things but I can’t really say it’s shit politics. People don’t remember who-said-what at election time, they just remember what governments did. Blair understood this - he was particularly good at co-opting bits of Tory policy he thought would sell well.
Reeves having a field day after a massive policy win.
Must be first serious major win the opposition have had in long time.
Definitely a win for Labour but also a reminder of why they haven't put out a huge shopping list of policy proposals at this stage - the Tories will just nick them all, after a respectable period of ranting about how they represent a dangerous Leninist attack on Tory England of course.
"How's Carrie" trending on twitter for some reason.
"I see 'How's Carrie' is trending due to rumours she has left Johnson and is shacked up with racist posh boy Zak Goldsmith. no idea if this is true or not."
We better have a whip 'round to fund some new wallpaper in that case.
There would be a lovely scene if Boris returns from parliament to No 10 and find Carrie has packed and gone. Evening arrives and he stumbles to the fridge and all that’s in there is a can of beer and a microwave curry.
He wouldn't give a toss. He'd be fingerblasting the mustard hole of the first Sloaney spad he could get his hands on within hours.
Looks like Sunak agrees with me that if inflation is being driven by external forces, then there is not a high risk of a wage inflation spiral. Indeed the prospect of economic downturn due to excessive reduced demand because of suppression of discretionary consumer demand is quite high.
Wage inflation is going to be a massive problem in the UK IMO. There are huge sections of industry that cannot find staff, so job seekers that have the right skills are becoming more demanding and existing employees are insisting on higher pay or the inference is that they will bugger off. It is cheaper to hike someone's pay than lose a key member of staff. The public sector will no doubt suffer similar pressure and industrial disputes.
It truly is shit politics by Bonzo. Can't help people. Its their fault. Would hard BP. Unconservative. Can't afford it. Labour want to tax business. Oh ok, lets do it and expect people will forget the months we spent saying no.
It is many things but I can’t really say it’s shit politics. People don’t remember who-said-what at election time, they just remember what governments did. Blair understood this - he was particularly good at co-opting bits of Tory policy he thought would sell well.
Sure - they could have just said "good policy". Instead we have had months and months and months of pain - people tend to remember that even if they eventually find some relief.
Think of a painful medical condition which you have to suffer for months because waiting lists. Whilst it eventually gets fixed you don't forget the needless pain you suffered.
Cooper has a rather rueful look on her face as she watches Reeves. Silently waving goodbye to being next leader?
Reeves speech is being met by near silence. Shes garbage.
Are you watching in North Korea? They roared her on and a deafening "MORE" as she sad down that Madame Deputy Speaker had to shut up.
I posted before she sat down. The speech was not met with the ususl helpful roars as she attempted her zingers. I acknowkedge they attemoted some rip roaring at the end
I’m going to Preveza. You’ve RUINED my “private wine time” in Parga with your historical determinism. I HOPE you’re HAPPY
Oh, no historical determinism from me. I'm no Marxist. I don't think it's impossible that Russia could have ended up a liberal democracy, I just don't think it was the likeliest outcome by any stretch.
Last Night in Sivota. Literally. I am now checking out and moving on. The nomadic life continues…
I'm also abroad atm and moving from place to place using only my native wit and a credit card.
Looking forward to your daily travelblog.
Well I'm going to the WW1 cemetery at Ypres today.
It's a humbling thing. There are 55,000 names on the Menin Gate. But that's not the number of men killed in a war. It's not even the number of men killed in a campaign. It's just the number of men killed in a campaign whose bodies they couldn't find. No, it's not even that, because they ran out of space and had to continue the list at Tyne Cot (35,000 names). Incomprehensible.
At the risk of getting the maths wrong, British men killed 887,858, divided by number of days the war lasted (1581) gives 560 killed a day for 4 years and 4 months. And that ignores injuries, many of which were horrific. And that's just us.
Germany lost around 2 million, France 1.4 Million.
On a flippant aside, you can see why there were so many unmarried aunts back in the 20's and 30's.
Horrific.
Europe has never truly recovered from World War 1
Eg Russia is a shit-show now because of what happened in 1914-1917. The Great War also led pretty directly to Hitler and Nazism
There is a good argument for saying World War 1 is the greatest avoidable tragedy in human history
The conditions which created it weren’t, though. How likely is it that the clashing imperialisms and nationalisms would not still have led to mass conflict, even if it had been avoided in 1914 ?
I understand all that, I’ve read the books. The Fashoda incident. Etc
I just can’t buy a vision of human nature that says we had no choice but to wage a war that would kill 10m people for no obvious gain or reason and which would make the world a vastly sadder place, and which paved the way for Lenin, Stalin and Hitler. And then Mao
Maybe it’s the cheery Boris-tolerating optimist in me, and I am sadly misguided. I’d rather be that than a desolating fatalist
I'm not a fatalist - WWI was not inevitable - but appeals to human nature are unpersuasive when you consider the nature of the regimes around Europe at the time - and the fact that wars of conquest hadn't the same taboos attached as they do now.
Human nature is corruptible, and for every cosmopolitan Vienna, with its cultural flowering, or pragmatic seeker of stability like Britain, there was an imperial Germany or Russia.
The Russia you wrote of earlier is not the result of WWI - its nature has not massively changed since the Tsars.
I haven't seen so much anger for a long time. I don't get usually get texts about politics. But today they're coming thick and fast. Has anyone seen this months Private Eye cover? Possibly the rudest ever. I have it on my mobile but I don't know how to show it here......
Clearly you have to live 5000 miles away under the absolute rule of of a Sheikh before this stuff rolls over you.
Shit economics, but potentially good politics. Not sure.
My bet on next PM might not be lost afterall.
But its shit economics. He doesn't deserve to be PM.
It's a lot of money being handed out in the middle of an inflation crisis. My impression is that this strategy does not have a good success rate.
Money handed out should have been strictly limited to those in dire need. All the rest is just more fuel for the inflationary fire.
Worse. Many of the recipients of the £400 will be spending it like Leon. In Greece or somewhere. At least benefit claimants will prop up the local shops.
Cooper has a rather rueful look on her face as she watches Reeves. Silently waving goodbye to being next leader?
Reeves speech is being met by near silence. Shes garbage.
Are you watching in North Korea? They roared her on and a deafening "MORE" as she sad down that Madame Deputy Speaker had to shut up.
I posted before she sat down. The speech was not met with the ususl helpful roars as she attempted her zingers. I acknowkedge they attemoted some rip roaring at the end
Hmm, I see she made a point about taxing non-doms. Unkind given to whom she was talking.
"How's Carrie" trending on twitter for some reason.
"I see 'How's Carrie' is trending due to rumours she has left Johnson and is shacked up with racist posh boy Zak Goldsmith. no idea if this is true or not."
We better have a whip 'round to fund some new wallpaper in that case.
There would be a lovely scene if Boris returns from parliament to No 10 and find Carrie has packed and gone. Evening arrives and he stumbles to the fridge and all that’s in there is a can of beer and a microwave curry.
He wouldn't give a toss. He'd be fingerblasting the mustard hole of the first Sloaney spad he could get his hands on within hours.
Comments
Oh - each!
Good politics. As I suggested earlier.
Hmmmm...
Thus avoiding Hitler AND the Russian Revolution, and all of communism
There are a trillion What Ifs
One of the most tragic is Russia. Through 1890-1914 it was speedily industrialising, a middle class was developing, and the state was liberalising. It was on course to become an actual western-style liberal democracy in a few decades, with a pretty high standard of living
Then, WW1 and Lenin
I'm having sandwiches and beer.
Good job we didn't get Corbyn in pissing money up the wall like there's no tomorrow.
My bet on next PM might not be lost afterall.
But its shit economics. He doesn't deserve to be PM.
I'm not complaining. They had to do *something*. As with the various Covid schemes like furlough they have done so.
As to Russia. The economic growth led to the revolution - once you have a mass of people who have enough to eat, so they can spend time asking why the government is fucking awful..... Looking at the post-Tsarist government, Kerensky and Co. were not going to last. Sadly. The most probable thing instead of the Bolsheviks is fragmented Russian Empire of with White Warlords vs Peoples Republics..... Think China....
https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/1529787519944073216
Haha, no
Must be first serious major win the opposition have had in long time.
Seems a very value bet to me.
Rent controls.
@JohnRentoul
·
1m
Rachel Reeves rises for her victory speech. "Labour is winning the battle of ideas in Britain"
“Economic growth rates averaged 9 per cent from 1894–1900 and 5 per cent from 1900–1914. These were huge rates of change.”
Reminiscent of China in the last decades, which nearly became a nice, friendly country
https://revisionworld.com/gcse-revision/history/world-history/russia-1914-1941/russia-first-world-war/economy-1914
There is a causal link the other way around, liberal democracy often leads to growth, but the relationship isn't perfect and the reverse definitely isn't true.
I'm a bit confused by your China comment; I'd have thought China's trajectory was a case in point of how epic growth doesn't bring liberal democracy.
Look. This is where I AM. Drinking WINE. Life is GOOD. Stop being BLEAK
They might be faced with a conservative leader who did something conservative.
https://twitter.com/JohnJCrace/status/1529791396483371008
A Socialist in number 10?
And Sunak's response to it is lame af
Money handed out should have been strictly limited to those in dire need. All the rest is just more fuel for the inflationary fire.
Think of a painful medical condition which you have to suffer for months because waiting lists. Whilst it eventually gets fixed you don't forget the needless pain you suffered.
I acknowkedge they attemoted some rip roaring at the end
Ditch your fucking leader then...
I don't think it's impossible that Russia could have ended up a liberal democracy, I just don't think it was the likeliest outcome by any stretch.
Human nature is corruptible, and for every cosmopolitan Vienna, with its cultural flowering, or pragmatic seeker of stability like Britain, there was an imperial Germany or Russia.
The Russia you wrote of earlier is not the result of WWI - its nature has not massively changed since the Tsars.
Edit - both outdone by this dresdful SNP response
Clearly you have to live 5000 miles away under the absolute rule of of a Sheikh before this stuff rolls over you.
Many of the recipients of the £400 will be spending it like Leon. In Greece or somewhere.
At least benefit claimants will prop up the local shops.
No change there, then.