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The great grad/non-grad voting indicator – politicalbetting.com

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    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,262
    By the way, also quite clever of SKS because if he's NOT fined but Boris continues to be, it looks very good for Starmer.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,222

    I see that Clown Apologists are getting worried by Starmer resigning if he gets a FPN. They don't need to worry, their idol will stay where he is. He has no shame.

    Are there any "Clown Apologists" on this site worried about that?

    The only people I can see claiming Starmer resigning would be bad for the PM is a few left-wingers like CHB.

    Everyone else seems to agree that Boris would shamelessly say "I'm getting on with the job" and refuse to resign.
    If Johnson can hang on until Putin is defeated, he gets his Falklands Factor too. That has got to be worth his while hanging on in.
    He'll be the first to a humbled Moscow, no question. Big woolly hat, flicking the V signs.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,435

    NEW THREAD

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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,304
    Once more, the reason that politicians are being super-cautious around this (not condemning the other side, leaving options open for their own up to and including resignation) is that just like everyone else no one has a clue what was or wasn't legal or guidance or within the rules. And they were responsible for introducing the laws which ensured such confusion.

    If there is one over-riding effect of this whole thing is to banish such absurd, illogical and illiberal laws to the rubbish bin of history forever.
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    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    nico679 said:

    Starmer should offer to resign if given a FPN .

    This seems so obvious that I don’t know why he hasn’t done so already . It would be worth it to see the faces of the Tory MPs and this puts him in a weird position of on one hand suffering the indignation of being investigated but at the same time showing he’s still taking a principled stance .

    It would put the Tories in a terrible position and move the focus onto Johnson.

    Quite a tough one for a politician though. It would be putting party before personal ambition . Something most politicians would struggle with. It would be a marked contrast to Johnson
    Which is why he must do it. This is the only way Labour will win the next election with a majority.
    He shouldn’t offer anything till he gets it. Soon as he gets it he must come straight out and resign.

    Starmer is in hiding today, he suspects it’s coming now.

    I don’t have a soft spot for Boris Johnson I would like to see him out of Downing Street ASAP. But I’m no great fan of Boring yet full of himself Starmer either. My interest is to see a minority Labour government after the election relying on sensible Lib Dems MPs to counteract the left wing madness of Abbott, Borgon, etc.

    So i’ve got my fingers crossed Starmer gets a FPN. If Starmer resigns on point of principle when he gets FPN - which he has no choice but to, lay ambition aside to do the right thing for those people followed the rules and weren’t at bedside of dying loved ones or at funerals, as he, MP and lawmaker, broke the law, flouted the rules - BUT the kicker is that will bring A SWIFT end to Boris Johnson’s career! 🥳 Why? Because if Boris don’t follow suit, his own and his party ratings will go into China Meltdown Syndrome, off the bottom of the chart, burning its way through the earth. 🤣

    I couple of posters will say neither need to resign - but come on we know how it works. If Starmer doesn’t resign as soon as he gets it he crashes the Labour Party chances at next election, splits the party more with each day he tries to hang on whilst his ratings go South. And once once Starmer goes, Boris has to go too 🤗 And I get my £50 for 2022 exit 😋

    And that’s not even the funny bit. The funny bit It’s THE MAIL WHAT DONE IT! 😂

    Betting wise, the closer Starmer, and the leadership around him who were also there, move towards their FPN, Boris out in 2022 has to be pretty much heavily odds on now with this possibility very much in the air.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,005

    Of course if Starmer resign in disgrace from hypocrisy then in the future Our Genial Host will be able to write that Boris has "only previously faced Livingstone, Corbyn and Starmer, who all became discredited" when talking about Labour's new leader.

    If Starmer did go he would be the shortest serving party leader since IDS and Michael Howard
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    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,262

    Heathener said:

    **** BETTING POST *****

    Get on the next PM market from the Labour pool, NOT the Conservative one. Boris will not feel any obligation to follow SKS on this if the latter resigns.

    There's exceptional value to be had.

    Just DON'T bet on Andy Burnham. He was useless last time, he doesn't gel with blue wall, he isn't even an MP, and he's a man. Labour will go female next time around.

    They'd be mad to skip Wes Streeting
    No they wouldn't.

    We need a female leader. And we will.
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    nico679nico679 Posts: 4,819
    If Starmer does offer to do this he needs to make sure it’s not just some statement issued but a news conference .
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,304
    kinabalu said:

    Tim ex of PB talking even more horseshit than usual

    The Centrist just cant compute SKS might just be a bit shite.

    https://twitter.com/flying_rodent/status/1523376138466521089/photo/1

    I'm not a fan of SKS myself but your posts on the subject are getting a bit boring.
    I thought Tim arguing "Corbyn got an easy ride from Right Wing press compared to Starmer" was of interest to PBers
    Yes, that's a nonsense. I'm not really on your side with all this - rooting for the Tories under Boris Johnson over Labour under SKS is for me utterly bizarre in a person of the Left - but there isn't half some crap talked sometimes by 'centrists'.
    It's not bizarre. It's exactly the same as the opposition's supporters hoping that there will be eg a recession, or some other national crisis that the government can be seen to be responsible for. Loyalty to their own faction outweighs a desire to see one's country prosper.
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,934
    edited May 2022
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    malcolmg said:

    ping said:

    Another miserable day on the markets.

    We’re headed towards a recession I tell ye.

    Too late to get out now , just have to batten down the hatches and hope for the best , I have had a torrid year so far, if only I had cashed in at xmas.
    It’s going to get a whole lot worse, before it gets better again. Interest rates have a long way up still to go, and the war in Ukraine isn’t about to end either.
    About time we had normal levels of interest rate. Get it to 4 or 5% pronto
    I’m working on 2.5% this year for the BoE, with the Fed aiming closer to 3%.

    Any higher and the risk of large private-sector default rises, alongside the government’s own cost of debt servicing.

    (Good to see you back here btw).
    Thank you. I may stay but I might be an occasional visitor. My political interest is fired up but my engagement with any party at an all time low. It's all about analysis and interest now, not any desired result. Except, of course, desiring labour failure at everything, always until they bring back Wilson, Sunny Jim and Smith and retcon the Foot, Kinnock and Blair onwards eras out of existence
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,002

    Am going to doxx myself here to show the picture I just tweeted. The final bit of bank that I need to remove from my office space is the old night safe. We had removed its attachment to the window (where the hatch used to be) but it was still absolutely solid.

    I had assumed it was bolted to the floor. But having hacked my way into the plinth it is mounted on its clear that it is held in place only by its own weight.

    I can rock it, so a few strong bodies could likely move it a little. But I think it weighs an awful lot (being made out of chunks of steel). so how exactly do I remove it? I think I need machinery to lift it off, but what?

    https://twitter.com/ianincyaak/status/1523615863663865858

    Having done stuff like this before in demo jobs: be careful. And if you try to roll it down any slopes, remember that they can pick up momentum *fast*. I saw my dad nearly get crushed by an industrial lathe like that.

    As an aside, back in the ?sixties? the family company renovated a bank in Derby, including building a massive vault underneath it. Just before he retired in the mid-nineties, the bank went out of use and became a pub. The new owners called my dad in to see whether the vault could be broken out to make more space.

    The answer was a most certain no; at least at a reasonable cost. The vault was essentially now part of the foundations. So it became their beer and wine store...
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,405
    Pro_Rata said:

    Am going to doxx myself here to show the picture I just tweeted. The final bit of bank that I need to remove from my office space is the old night safe. We had removed its attachment to the window (where the hatch used to be) but it was still absolutely solid.

    I had assumed it was bolted to the floor. But having hacked my way into the plinth it is mounted on its clear that it is held in place only by its own weight.

    I can rock it, so a few strong bodies could likely move it a little. But I think it weighs an awful lot (being made out of chunks of steel). so how exactly do I remove it? I think I need machinery to lift it off, but what?

    https://twitter.com/ianincyaak/status/1523615863663865858

    Bits of wood?

    My father-in-law has some sort of hand operated forklift like thing which he's used to move around the multi-tonne lathes in his shed. You probably want something like that.

    Vaguely similar to these things which are called moving skates.

    https://www.liftingequipmentstore.com/categories/material-handling---lifting-jacks/machine-skates---load-moving-skates/economy-load-moving-skates
    Yes, depending on the wood underneath (remove that bottom front piece?) and dimensions that looks like it may be amenable to a hand or powered pallet truck on the flat, though think about weight limits all the way to your ramp (and indeed, especially, on the ramp).
    And control. All that weight on even a slight slope and it will be rolling over your feet before you can say "accident and emergency".
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    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    edited May 2022

    CCHQ advised all ministers this morning NOT to call for Keir Starmer's resignation - they said to instead to focus on hypocrisy

    It sent a terse reminder after Michelle Donelan came close to doing so during the morning broadcast round

    Too late. If Starmer’s gets a FPN he will resign, and the process ensures Boris follows and Labour do well at the next election, for the fact Starmer stood down immediately he got one. Torys didn’t - they defended the indefensible for MONTHS.

    The electorate arn’t dumb.

    BUT THE TORYS AND THEIR BORIS SUPPORTING PRESS CERTAINLY ARE 😂
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    YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    Cyclefree said:

    @YBarddCwsc

    Re your comments on a previous thread:-

    Please don't go round making unfounded accusations or implications about the Cyclefree family. When you did this before I explained that there were very painful family circumstances which led to me and my husband living apart in two different houses, as separated couples do. Those circumstances have, happily for us, ended. Not that it is any of your - or anyone else's - business, frankly.

    We pay and will pay all taxes due on our property property. My sons live in London. My husband and I and Daughter live in the Lakes. I am entitled to comment on the property situation in this country on this forum without getting nasty and unjustified comments from you.

    I hope I have made myself clear.

    I am perfectly entitled to point out that you own 2 homes.

    I am perfectly entitled to repeat a comment that you made on pb.com

    And my solution is perfectly workable -- all houses (whether first homes, second homes or two first homes) in the high Council Tax bands should have their tax increased rather substantially.

    That way, we avoid getting into a discussion about personal circumstances, and what is or isn't a second home.

    A house is easy to tax. A second home is not easy to tax.
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,991
    AlistairM said:

    Are we now in a situation where the Tories want SKS not to resign but SKS is going to resign to spite them? What a topsy-turvy period in politics the last decade has been.

    Arf. How true!
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    carnforthcarnforth Posts: 3,209

    Some interesting suggestions coming in so far:

    1. Had assumed it was bolted as was so solid. Turns out just to weigh 3m tons
    2. Its not on a pallet. Its sat on a sturdy wooden platform
    3. I am NOT going to move it. Even if I got a team of sturdy blokes to lift it off the platform it would need transport out of the building (there is a ramp) to the scrapman
    4. I am NOT going to hire a plasma cutter. I don't need to accidentally burn down the building or remove an arm
    5. Two options to explore. Speak to machine removal company, and ring the local scrap merchants. Someone will have options. Have cash to pay for its removal.

    Leave it where it is, and make it a feature. Free!
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    StockyStocky Posts: 9,718
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    **** BETTING POST *****

    Get on the next PM market from the Labour pool, NOT the Conservative one. Boris will not feel any obligation to follow SKS on this if the latter resigns.

    There's exceptional value to be had.

    Just DON'T bet on Andy Burnham. He was useless last time, he doesn't gel with blue wall, he isn't even an MP, and he's a man. Labour will go female next time around.

    They'd be mad to skip Wes Streeting
    No they wouldn't.

    We need a female leader. And we will.
    When you say that do you mean that a female leader has a better chance than a male leader of winning the next GE?

    Or do you mean that you need a female leader because you haven't had one before?

    (Interesting that you have substituted female for woman - or am I reading too much into that?)
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,405

    Leon said:

    Putin looks absolutely TERRIBLE here. I wonder if the rumours about his health are true

    He's aged 20 years in 5


    https://twitter.com/spectator/status/1523599626468675584?s=20&t=hgRHpm5KAkaoCDU4BTRiew

    Here's a morbid question: Will QEII outlive Putin?
    I am no monarchist (quite the opposite) but without wanting to chastise you personally, I find the endless speculation on PB about a frail old lady's demise distasteful.
    I like the following vignette that popped into my head -

    In the middle of the night, the Queen wanders the corridors of Buckingham Palace. Flipping over one of the Canalettos, reveals a vast array of small photographs of despots she has had to meet.

    She crosses another one out with the marker pen.
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    ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    Heathener said:

    **** BETTING POST *****

    Get on the next PM market from the Labour pool, NOT the Conservative one. Boris will not feel any obligation to follow SKS on this if the latter resigns.

    There's exceptional value to be had.

    Just DON'T bet on Andy Burnham. He was useless last time, he doesn't gel with blue wall, he isn't even an MP, and he's a man. Labour will go female next time around.

    They'd be mad to skip Wes Streeting
    Or sexist.
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    kjhkjh Posts: 10,631

    kjh said:

    OK I'll stop now. For those that didn't get it please position yourself in front of a wall so you can bang your head against it.

    It's the Nile.

    For those that got it instantly I guess you are wondering why we are all so thick?

    Paul Sinha asked the question of an audience of quizzers and by god the stuff they knew was impressive yet very few of them could answer the question immediately and some not at all and I'm guessing it is because you think Med = Europe. But hells bells it really is an easy question. I only had a short time to think about it before hearing the answer, but I didn't get it. My wife had all the time in the world and didn't get it (and she does know the answer obviously).

    I got it fairly immediately; II went from 'the Amazon and the Nile are the two longest rivers in the world. The Amazon rather definitely does not flow into the Med; but the Nile does.'. Therefore Nile.

    And I then started wondering why it was supposed to be difficult, and whether if it was a definitional problem: was the Nile Delta treated as its own body of water? Were the Blue and White Nile treated differently, etc, etc.
    Yes if you know the answer immediately you do start to think there must be some sort of trick, but no there wasn't. It is just that so many of us focused on Europe and forget Africa. I think @BartholomewRoberts made a good point and maybe if the question was asked differently with the emphasis on Mediterranean rather than Longest River in the question more would have stumbled. Those that did stumble were all thinking Europe and has been pointed out thinking of the 2nd longest isn't easy so we were all deep in thought while the obvious answer was shouting at us.

    Of course all of us who didn't spot it immediately all feel very stupid and all of us did know obviously.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,222

    EXC with @hzeffman

    Keir Starmer is today considering pledging to quit if he is fined over beergate

    Close allies are urging him to say that an FPN is a resigning offence

    No decision yet but influential supporters say it is the only course of action

    https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1523615985927819264

    Mmm ... Surely, this can be portrayed as putting undue pressure on Durham Constabulary to clear him.

    His best course of action at the moment is to wait till Durham Plod have reported.

    He obviously should figure out what he is going to do if he gets a FPN, but he doesn't have to tell the press now.
    I don't agree it does influence the police. Starmer must say if he is found guilty he will resign- personally I believe he should have gone on the news of the investigation, as he demanded of Johnson.

    Johnson is under no obligation to do the same.
    Starmer resigning - which I don't expect even if he gets a fine which in any case he probably won't - would not imo cause Johnson to resign. The Tories couldn't call for him to go (obvs) and if he did go their line would be Starmer clearly couldn't live with having his hypocrisy exposed and that was a matter for him.

    What hypocrisy? Breaking a law he voted for? No, Johnson did that and said it was ok to just apologize and crack on with the job. So not that. That's no resigning matter in their eyes. What then? Well he called for Johnson to resign when he was fined, didn't he? That's the resigning issue.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,002
    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    OK I'll stop now. For those that didn't get it please position yourself in front of a wall so you can bang your head against it.

    It's the Nile.

    For those that got it instantly I guess you are wondering why we are all so thick?

    Paul Sinha asked the question of an audience of quizzers and by god the stuff they knew was impressive yet very few of them could answer the question immediately and some not at all and I'm guessing it is because you think Med = Europe. But hells bells it really is an easy question. I only had a short time to think about it before hearing the answer, but I didn't get it. My wife had all the time in the world and didn't get it (and she does know the answer obviously).

    I got it fairly immediately; II went from 'the Amazon and the Nile are the two longest rivers in the world. The Amazon rather definitely does not flow into the Med; but the Nile does.'. Therefore Nile.

    And I then started wondering why it was supposed to be difficult, and whether if it was a definitional problem: was the Nile Delta treated as its own body of water? Were the Blue and White Nile treated differently, etc, etc.
    Yes if you know the answer immediately you do start to think there must be some sort of trick, but no there wasn't. It is just that so many of us focused on Europe and forget Africa. I think @BartholomewRoberts made a good point and maybe if the question was asked differently with the emphasis on Mediterranean rather than Longest River in the question more would have stumbled. Those that did stumble were all thinking Europe and has been pointed out thinking of the 2nd longest isn't easy so we were all deep in thought while the obvious answer was shouting at us.

    Of course all of us who didn't spot it immediately all feel very stupid and all of us did know obviously.
    No reason for anyone to feel stupid IMO.

    I also asked myself: "what is the world's third longest river?" and had no idea. Thought it might be the Yellow River or Mississippi, but wrong on both counts...
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    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,999

    Leon said:

    Putin looks absolutely TERRIBLE here. I wonder if the rumours about his health are true

    He's aged 20 years in 5


    https://twitter.com/spectator/status/1523599626468675584?s=20&t=hgRHpm5KAkaoCDU4BTRiew

    Here's a morbid question: Will QEII outlive Putin?
    I am no monarchist (quite the opposite) but without wanting to chastise you personally, I find the endless speculation on PB about a frail old lady's demise distasteful.
    Cancel culture. We're all free speech absolutists now.
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    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    edited May 2022
    kinabalu said:

    EXC with @hzeffman

    Keir Starmer is today considering pledging to quit if he is fined over beergate

    Close allies are urging him to say that an FPN is a resigning offence

    No decision yet but influential supporters say it is the only course of action

    https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1523615985927819264

    Mmm ... Surely, this can be portrayed as putting undue pressure on Durham Constabulary to clear him.

    His best course of action at the moment is to wait till Durham Plod have reported.

    He obviously should figure out what he is going to do if he gets a FPN, but he doesn't have to tell the press now.
    I don't agree it does influence the police. Starmer must say if he is found guilty he will resign- personally I believe he should have gone on the news of the investigation, as he demanded of Johnson.

    Johnson is under no obligation to do the same.
    Starmer resigning - which I don't expect even if he gets a fine which in any case he probably won't - would not imo cause Johnson to resign. The Tories couldn't call for him to go (obvs) and if he did go their line would be Starmer clearly couldn't live with having his hypocrisy exposed and that was a matter for him.

    What hypocrisy? Breaking a law he voted for? No, Johnson did that and said it was ok to just apologize and crack on with the job. So not that. That's no resigning matter in their eyes. What then? Well he called for Johnson to resign when he was fined, didn't he? That's the resigning issue.
    What about the argument if Starmer doesn’t resign his own and labour ratings go through the floor. If Boris doesn’t follow suit in resigning, the ratings of his party (seen to be rallying around the indefensible) going through the floor forces it out of him?
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,222
    edited May 2022
    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    Tim ex of PB talking even more horseshit than usual

    The Centrist just cant compute SKS might just be a bit shite.

    https://twitter.com/flying_rodent/status/1523376138466521089/photo/1

    I'm not a fan of SKS myself but your posts on the subject are getting a bit boring.
    I thought Tim arguing "Corbyn got an easy ride from Right Wing press compared to Starmer" was of interest to PBers
    Yes, that's a nonsense. I'm not really on your side with all this - rooting for the Tories under Boris Johnson over Labour under SKS is for me utterly bizarre in a person of the Left - but there isn't half some crap talked sometimes by 'centrists'.
    It's not bizarre. It's exactly the same as the opposition's supporters hoping that there will be eg a recession, or some other national crisis that the government can be seen to be responsible for. Loyalty to their own faction outweighs a desire to see one's country prosper.
    That's slightly different. As a Labour supporter you might root for a recession under a Tory government because it increases the chances of it being replaced with a Labour government. There's some rationality there. This here is a Lefty wanting a Tory government over a Labour government because the Labour one wouldn't be left wing enough. That's less rational. Indeed it's irrational - aka "bizarre".
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,974
    Carnyx said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Mr. Owls, aren't all penalties issued retrospectively, though?

    A transgression has to precede the punishment, after all... that's how time works.

    You would have thought so wouldnt you but didnt Met say something similar initially
    What they mean is they react to Officer, that guy over there is breaking lockdown but not Officer, two weeks ago that guy over there... which seems sense
    But the Met were in No 10 all the time.
    Likely in the parties as well
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,974
    Sandpit said:

    malcolmg said:

    ping said:

    Another miserable day on the markets.

    We’re headed towards a recession I tell ye.

    Too late to get out now , just have to batten down the hatches and hope for the best , I have had a torrid year so far, if only I had cashed in at xmas.
    It’s going to get a whole lot worse, before it gets better again. Interest rates have a long way up still to go, and the war in Ukraine isn’t about to end either.
    I will need to stop looking. Can always work till I drop.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,974

    Am going to doxx myself here to show the picture I just tweeted. The final bit of bank that I need to remove from my office space is the old night safe. We had removed its attachment to the window (where the hatch used to be) but it was still absolutely solid.

    I had assumed it was bolted to the floor. But having hacked my way into the plinth it is mounted on its clear that it is held in place only by its own weight.

    I can rock it, so a few strong bodies could likely move it a little. But I think it weighs an awful lot (being made out of chunks of steel). so how exactly do I remove it? I think I need machinery to lift it off, but what?

    https://twitter.com/ianincyaak/status/1523615863663865858

    Having done stuff like this before in demo jobs: be careful. And if you try to roll it down any slopes, remember that they can pick up momentum *fast*. I saw my dad nearly get crushed by an industrial lathe like that.

    As an aside, back in the ?sixties? the family company renovated a bank in Derby, including building a massive vault underneath it. Just before he retired in the mid-nineties, the bank went out of use and became a pub. The new owners called my dad in to see whether the vault could be broken out to make more space.

    The answer was a most certain no; at least at a reasonable cost. The vault was essentially now part of the foundations. So it became their beer and wine store...
    Need to get a trolley jack or suchlike that can be pumped up, underneath it. Get tolley jack underneath it, probaly need to be sure you do it so you can get it through doorways , but they are pretty maneouverable , imagine standing as it is now woudl be easiest way, just how you get jack underneath. Be a tough job, easier to make it into a cabinet. Borrow from your local garage and have a few burly helpers.
This discussion has been closed.