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The great grad/non-grad voting indicator – politicalbetting.com
The great grad/non-grad voting indicator – politicalbetting.com
One of the best charts to explain this year’s local elections was the above one produced by Sky News during its coverage. It basically shows changes in vote share based on areas that have more or fewer graduates in the electorate than the population as a whole.
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Philippines
Polls close 12 noon BST, Marcos expected to win in landslide, FPTP.
youtube.com/watch?v=pM7jPTtPZf4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xcwnJbK4Hf0
Thanks
DC
Sensible name though.
The ultimate test will be the cost of living crisis. OK so you can spin Brexit so that the impacts of the oven-ready deal they voted for is the EU's fault. But you can't do the same with energy bills and food bills and tax bills.
This government not only doesn't have an answer to the mess, its seems happy to claim there is no mess. And then suggest the people suffering are to blame. That won't last them through to a 2024 election never mind deliver victory.
Hence my hypothesis that should Starmer have to quit that Johnson should call a snap election. There have been plenty of suggestions he is considering an election and their position can only get worse.
Don't you need to control for age too?
We know Tory support skews old, and graduates skew young, given the significant increase in HE over the last 20 years.
So how much of this is an age effect?
One of my pet hates is when they aren't. (Very common with age stats. A tiny 18-24 cohort and humungous 65+).
Whichever. I don't think it's a great sign. We've been divided by age, now by education (although the two correlate).
As Ronald Reagan once quipped I am not going to exploit, for political purposes, my opponent's youth and inexperience - young people are more likely to be graduates than old people are because of the step-change in how many people are graduates, and the young and inexperienced are more likely to be voting for the left.
That is, in the older cohorts, there were many less people going university. Since Conservative support is higher in the older groups.
For example,
- in 1950, 3.4% of the population went to university.
- in 1980, 15%
- in 1990, 25%
- in 2022, 50%
Without that correction, the numbers in the header don't mean much.
Do you have any data for that hypothesis?
Counter example - the current contents of the House of Commons.
Can't imagine why.
I sure hope we never live in such exciting times again when people’s livelihoods were threatened by an ill advised tax grab on Cornish pasties.
In other news, you don’t formalise an invasion as “a war” when you have already realised you will lose it.
(Damp squib from Putin, wasn't it. He's in quite a bind.)
However. If so, age-based voting seems to be getting only worse.
This isn't great for a healthy society.
Not seen polling data for that, though.
What are the chances Scot_xP is a graduate......
I wholeheartedly agree with you. 👍
I note already that some are equating higher education to intelligence. From what I have seen some of the most intelligent people haven't been to university as they didn't see the cost benefit - again this is somewhat changing when nurses and policeman need to have a qualification called a degree rather than something more vocational.
The Tories firmly believe that many of their voters are dumb enough to believe any old lies if they are repeated often enough, and can only understand simplicities and slogans. I don't think thats true at all and keep saying the red wall WWC voter is not stupid. But its a real problem for the Tories that they do think that.
What is the longest river that flows into the Mediterranean?
No doubt with sufficient lecturing from their betters they'll see the error of their ways and submit to the will of "people who know best".
Never fails.
It's becoming almost clientelist. On both sides.
The clearest impact is an increase in Liberal Democrat voting with increasing level of education.
In essence the young might be irrelevant in this story if the Tories lose 6 percentage points amongst the young but 1% among 65+ - that 1% could be much worse if they correlate to swing seats
Now, I'm not too sure.
Edit: Just seen this thread on similar lines but lots more detail, particularly about a secret mobilisation: https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1523581053218172929
My mate - like me - was also a leave voter. But is in despair that they are blaming the EU for having to fill in paperwork to travel on holiday. "This is what you voted for, look here it is in the Tory manifesto" from him just winds them up.
So its not that people are thick, its that they never understood the details (on either side of the debate) and have been manipulated like crazy for years by the "news". Hence the red tape that we asked to be imposed being described as "EU red tape" by the Express and Mail which Rees-Mogg and Boris will now cut by scrapping chunks of the oven-ready deal.
Lots of potential correlation vs causation questions here.
And the current polling in the Philippines might argue the opposite.
We are told that prices have gone up here because energy costs have risen worldwide, but to what extend have ours been aggravated by hair-brained green levies, and utility taxes?
Asking for a friend
As Thomas Huxley lamented 150 years ago ... 'The great tragedy of Science—the slaying of a beautiful hypothesis by an ugly fact.'
As I've said many times. "The Great tragedy of old age - we've seen it all before."
I think there's a big drop in voting Tory from having a degree shown there, but mainly benefits the Lib Dems.
You can have a degree and be working class. You can even have a law degree like Ricky Ding Dong Burgon the chief clown car driver.
I don't think either did.
It seems to have happened though. And relatively recently. 2010 onwards.
Unlike Labour or the Tories the Lib Dems don't necessarily need to hold together a wide electoral coalition. The SNP have shown that you can be very successful under FPTP if you max out support on one side of a political divide. I don't suggest the Lib Dems are anywhere near as concentrated or efficient in support as the SNP of course (the latter have I believe the lowest votes per seat of any major party while the Lib Dems do very badly on this, beaten only in inefficiency by the Greens and the various UKIP-esque parties).
Do the Lib Dems indeed become the new destination party for graduate Labour voters who get older and wealthier and move out to the commuter belt and shires? Whereas in the past they might have jumped straight into voting Tory as their mortgages and house values grew?
Though the party also has an opportunity with farming communities. Traditional Liberal base, and one of the more immediately disillusioned by the promises of Brexit. But I don't think appealing to farmers and wealthy graduates is particularly mutually exclusive, with the exception perhaps of some local NIMBY issues.
We still have coal power stations. Switch the bloody things back on for a bit so that we can shut down gas imports.
However amongst areas with the fewest graduates as the chart shows the Conservatives voteshare actually increased, hence they held councils like Dudley and Walsall and gained seats in councils like Harlow.
However partly age must be considered too as the older voters are the less likely they are to have been graduates and the Tories still do best with pensioners.
Concerning for Labour that there voteshare only increased in areas with the most graduates, in areas with average or below average graduates their voteshare declined. Sir Keir's Labour party is surely the poshest Labour Party ever? Winning Hampstead and Westminster but failing to win working class areas of the Midlands.
Even the LDs increased their voteshare in areas with average numbers of graduates as well as areas with the highest number of graduates
Fascinated why you are asking the question though
Mr. JohnL, cheers for your advice on the previous thread.
Degrees are so commonplace now they're hardly a sign of merit. I think those who go off into the real world of work are often worthier of praise than a lazy slide into university (he says as someone who went there more or less on autopilot).
We do still have coal. We just don't mine it anymore.
1. Did you go to uni?
2. If "no" Is that because (a) you're not clever enough or (b) you didn't want to or (c) because there weren't the opportunities when you were a young un.
And even then you'd get a lot of 'noise' in there.
But it was interesting which geographical way round I approached the question.
Keir Starmer is a legend.
Am I missing something?
Russia is mobilising, but in 'secret' [1].
However, there was a good video on YouTube of a Russian General (who has probably now been shot) on Russian state media basically saying what good would mobilisation do as Russia doesn't have the equipment to arm the men (a lot of the good gear requires Western technology) [2], and would take months to properly train the soldiers anyway (so they're looking at a winter offensive before they can get going again - remind me how well those go).
[1] I don't really know how you can mobilise in secret. The called up men are going to tell their wives, mums etc who won't be happy when they find out what is really going on.
[2] Some vague talk, mostly joking, that the Russians will have to crack out the T34/85s. I'm sure its a job..... sure.....
UK nuclear power 15%
"Energy" (oil & gas) costs have risen worldwide but France are deriving their electricity from uranium, not "energy".
Waits for PB pedant to perhaps say its not uranium its something else instead
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/does-an-unknown-extraordinarily-ancient-civilisation-lie-buried-under-eastern-turkey-
Should have been totally honest from day 1
The full report from Ipsos MORI is interesting.
https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/how-britain-voted-2019-election
If you download their PDF they have a nice chart which shows how the age effect on voting exploded between the 2015 and 2017 GEs. It was always there, but it's so very much larger now.
It's essentially the only divide in British politics that currently matters. Everything else is a mere detail.
Andy Haldane, former chief economist at Bank of England who is now govt adviser, tells @LBC that high inflation could remain until 2024
He says 'things have even surpassed my own worst expectations' and criticises Bank for not acting sooner
I wonder if BoJo really will go for another GE