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The great grad/non-grad voting indicator – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited May 15 in General
imageThe great grad/non-grad voting indicator – politicalbetting.com

One of the best charts to explain this year’s local elections was the above one produced by Sky News during its coverage. It basically shows changes in vote share based on areas that have more or fewer graduates in the electorate than the population as a whole.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 22,658
    First.
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 397
    Second - apols for being OT so early!!

    Philippines

    Polls close 12 noon BST, Marcos expected to win in landslide, FPTP.

    youtube.com/watch?v=pM7jPTtPZf4

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xcwnJbK4Hf0

    Thanks

    DC
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 21,195
    BoZo losing support among people who think for a living...
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 16,049

    Second - apols for being OT so early!!

    Philippines

    Polls close 12 noon BST, Marcos expected to win in landslide, FPTP.

    youtube.com/watch?v=pM7jPTtPZf4

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xcwnJbK4Hf0

    Thanks

    DC

    Dynasties gonna dynast.

    Sensible name though.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 17,745
    The metrics about intelligence and support for the Conservative Party really should worry them. You can't reply on having support from people who don't do politics and can be shaped to believe any old lies you feed them - eventually they twig. And as I have said repeatedly red wall voters aren't stupid no matter how much Tories think that is true.

    The ultimate test will be the cost of living crisis. OK so you can spin Brexit so that the impacts of the oven-ready deal they voted for is the EU's fault. But you can't do the same with energy bills and food bills and tax bills.

    This government not only doesn't have an answer to the mess, its seems happy to claim there is no mess. And then suggest the people suffering are to blame. That won't last them through to a 2024 election never mind deliver victory.

    Hence my hypothesis that should Starmer have to quit that Johnson should call a snap election. There have been plenty of suggestions he is considering an election and their position can only get worse.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 54,884
    Up to a point, Lord Copper.

    Don't you need to control for age too?

    We know Tory support skews old, and graduates skew young, given the significant increase in HE over the last 20 years.

    So how much of this is an age effect?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 19,698
    edited May 9
    What is the baseline for the above chart? Is it 2018 or GE or 2021? Also. Are the three samples of equal size?
    One of my pet hates is when they aren't. (Very common with age stats. A tiny 18-24 cohort and humungous 65+).
    Whichever. I don't think it's a great sign. We've been divided by age, now by education (although the two correlate).
  • MalcolmDunnMalcolmDunn Posts: 126
    As the proportion of people going to University has rocketed over the last two decades the likelihood is that it is generally younger people voting for left wing parties.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 38,596

    Up to a point, Lord Copper.

    Don't you need to control for age too?

    We know Tory support skews old, and graduates skew young, given the significant increase in HE over the last 20 years.

    So how much of this is an age effect?

    The numbers in the graph are for change in vote share.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 26,806
    As ever, the data is missing a vital component - age/university attendance correct.

    That is, in the older cohorts, there were many less people going university. Since Conservative support is higher in the older groups.

    For example,

    - in 1950, 3.4% of the population went to university.
    - in 1980, 15%
    - in 1990, 25%
    - in 2022, 50%

    Without that correction, the numbers in the header don't mean much.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 26,806

    The metrics about intelligence and support for the Conservative Party really should worry them. You can't reply on having support from people who don't do politics and can be shaped to believe any old lies you feed them - eventually they twig. And as I have said repeatedly red wall voters aren't stupid no matter how much Tories think that is true.

    The ultimate test will be the cost of living crisis. OK so you can spin Brexit so that the impacts of the oven-ready deal they voted for is the EU's fault. But you can't do the same with energy bills and food bills and tax bills.

    This government not only doesn't have an answer to the mess, its seems happy to claim there is no mess. And then suggest the people suffering are to blame. That won't last them through to a 2024 election never mind deliver victory.

    Hence my hypothesis that should Starmer have to quit that Johnson should call a snap election. There have been plenty of suggestions he is considering an election and their position can only get worse.

    You are assuming that university eduction removes gullibility and ignorance.

    Do you have any data for that hypothesis?

    Counter example - the current contents of the House of Commons.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 38,596

    As ever, the data is missing a vital component - age/university attendance correct.

    That is, in the older cohorts, there were many less people going university. Since Conservative support is higher in the older groups.

    For example,

    - in 1950, 3.4% of the population went to university.
    - in 1980, 15%
    - in 1990, 25%
    - in 2022, 50%

    Without that correction, the numbers in the header don't mean much.

    They are for change in vote share - I presume since the last set of local elections ?
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 2,423

    As ever, the data is missing a vital component - age/university attendance correct.

    That is, in the older cohorts, there were many less people going university. Since Conservative support is higher in the older groups.

    For example,

    - in 1950, 3.4% of the population went to university.
    - in 1980, 15%
    - in 1990, 25%
    - in 2022, 50%

    Without that correction, the numbers in the header don't mean much.

    Yes, and this gets pointed out every time there's a header that mentions breakdown by education, but wor some reason it never gets mentioned in subsequent headers.

    Can't imagine why.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 21,195

    Hence my hypothesis that should Starmer have to quit that Johnson should call a snap election. There have been plenty of suggestions he is considering an election and their position can only get worse.

    The number of bills in the Queen's speech suggests this might be the last session before an election
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 3,943
    It’s so nice to live in quiet times again, when the thing most upsetting everyone is the circumstance around politicians eating an onion bhaji, drinking a can of Stella in the sunshine, singing happy birthday and doing Abba on the karaoke.

    I sure hope we never live in such exciting times again when people’s livelihoods were threatened by an ill advised tax grab on Cornish pasties.

    In other news, you don’t formalise an invasion as “a war” when you have already realised you will lose it.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 3,530

    The metrics about intelligence and support for the Conservative Party really should worry them. You can't reply on having support from people who don't do politics and can be shaped to believe any old lies you feed them - eventually they twig. And as I have said repeatedly red wall voters aren't stupid no matter how much Tories think that is true.

    The ultimate test will be the cost of living crisis. OK so you can spin Brexit so that the impacts of the oven-ready deal they voted for is the EU's fault. But you can't do the same with energy bills and food bills and tax bills.

    This government not only doesn't have an answer to the mess, its seems happy to claim there is no mess. And then suggest the people suffering are to blame. That won't last them through to a 2024 election never mind deliver victory.

    Hence my hypothesis that should Starmer have to quit that Johnson should call a snap election. There have been plenty of suggestions he is considering an election and their position can only get worse.

    You are assuming that university eduction removes gullibility and ignorance.

    Do you have any data for that hypothesis?

    Counter example - the current contents of the House of Commons.
    I wonder if Rochdale considers Dicky Burgon to be an example of the metric about intelligence?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 29,334

    The metrics about intelligence and support for the Conservative Party really should worry them. You can't reply on having support from people who don't do politics and can be shaped to believe any old lies you feed them - eventually they twig. And as I have said repeatedly red wall voters aren't stupid no matter how much Tories think that is true.

    The ultimate test will be the cost of living crisis. OK so you can spin Brexit so that the impacts of the oven-ready deal they voted for is the EU's fault. But you can't do the same with energy bills and food bills and tax bills.

    This government not only doesn't have an answer to the mess, its seems happy to claim there is no mess. And then suggest the people suffering are to blame. That won't last them through to a 2024 election never mind deliver victory.

    Hence my hypothesis that should Starmer have to quit that Johnson should call a snap election. There have been plenty of suggestions he is considering an election and their position can only get worse.

    Since when does being a graduate mean you are more 'intelligent' than a non-graduate, especially since the massive expansion in the availability of degrees?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 28,267
    I've seen this movie several times. PB Header highlights that the Tory vote is skewed to the uneducated. Various posters say this only shows their vote skews old since hardly anybody used to go to uni before 1975.

    (Damp squib from Putin, wasn't it. He's in quite a bind.)
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 19,698
    These points about age are very true.
    However. If so, age-based voting seems to be getting only worse.
    This isn't great for a healthy society.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 2,775
    edited May 9
    So thickos vote Tory. Not exactly breaking news…
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 54,884
    Nigelb said:

    Up to a point, Lord Copper.

    Don't you need to control for age too?

    We know Tory support skews old, and graduates skew young, given the significant increase in HE over the last 20 years.

    So how much of this is an age effect?

    The numbers in the graph are for change in vote share.
    Yes, but it would be interesting to compare with vote share by age, not just education level. Given there are proportionately more young graduates than old ones, the headline could also be "Conservatives losing support among the young".
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 26,806
    kinabalu said:

    I've seen this movie several times. PB Header highlights that the Tory vote is skewed to the uneducated. Various posters say this only shows their vote skews old since hardly anybody used to go to uni before 1975.

    (Damp squib from Putin, wasn't it. He's in quite a bind.)

    You could do something interesting, by correcting for the effect - breaking down voting patterns within each cohort.

    Not seen polling data for that, though.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 54,884
    JACK_W said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BoZo losing support among people who think for a living...

    There's a huge swathe of the population who do not have a degree who "think" for a living. You simply didn't think about your comment before posting it. :astonished:

    What are the chances Scot_xP is a graduate......
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 3,530
    dixiedean said:

    These points about age are very true.
    However. If so, age-based voting seems to be getting only worse.
    This isn't great for a healthy society.

    That is the real issue.

    I wholeheartedly agree with you. 👍
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 16,443
    edited May 9
    murali_s said:

    So thickos vote Tory. Not exactly breaking news…

    They used to vote Labour back when Labour was winning general elections, in the 90s, 70s and 60s.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 2,423
    JACK_W said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BoZo losing support among people who think for a living...

    There's a huge swathe of the population who do not have a degree who "think" for a living. You simply didn't think about your comment before posting it. :astonished:
    Why should he start now?
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,261

    Up to a point, Lord Copper.

    Don't you need to control for age too?

    We know Tory support skews old, and graduates skew young, given the significant increase in HE over the last 20 years.

    So how much of this is an age effect?

    Exactly my thoughts and although the big push for higher education came in the early 2000s there was a significant expansion in the 90s so it would be interesting to see what the average voter age has done recently - if that is recorded.

    I note already that some are equating higher education to intelligence. From what I have seen some of the most intelligent people haven't been to university as they didn't see the cost benefit - again this is somewhat changing when nurses and policeman need to have a qualification called a degree rather than something more vocational.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 17,745

    The metrics about intelligence and support for the Conservative Party really should worry them. You can't reply on having support from people who don't do politics and can be shaped to believe any old lies you feed them - eventually they twig. And as I have said repeatedly red wall voters aren't stupid no matter how much Tories think that is true.

    The ultimate test will be the cost of living crisis. OK so you can spin Brexit so that the impacts of the oven-ready deal they voted for is the EU's fault. But you can't do the same with energy bills and food bills and tax bills.

    This government not only doesn't have an answer to the mess, its seems happy to claim there is no mess. And then suggest the people suffering are to blame. That won't last them through to a 2024 election never mind deliver victory.

    Hence my hypothesis that should Starmer have to quit that Johnson should call a snap election. There have been plenty of suggestions he is considering an election and their position can only get worse.

    You are assuming that university eduction removes gullibility and ignorance.

    Do you have any data for that hypothesis?

    Counter example - the current contents of the House of Commons.
    No I'm not. You can have brilliantly astute people without a degree and no concept of reality graduates. But there is at least the presumption that the working person has been misled by the educated - "we've had enough of experts" - and can be spun simplistic positions devoid of expert bias. Hence the attacks on the various professions whether they be doctors or nurses or lawyers or teachers.

    The Tories firmly believe that many of their voters are dumb enough to believe any old lies if they are repeated often enough, and can only understand simplicities and slogans. I don't think thats true at all and keep saying the red wall WWC voter is not stupid. But its a real problem for the Tories that they do think that.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 6,223
    OT. I am going to ask a question, but please don't answer. Just say whether you got it straight away or had to think about it.

    What is the longest river that flows into the Mediterranean?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 16,049
    JACK_W said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BoZo losing support among people who think for a living...

    There's a huge swathe of the population who do not have a degree who "think" for a living. You simply didn't think about your comment before posting it. :astonished:
    Pretty much everybody at my school went on to university, one of the very, very few exceptions being Antony Beevor. What a dunce.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 17,745
    Scott_xP said:

    Hence my hypothesis that should Starmer have to quit that Johnson should call a snap election. There have been plenty of suggestions he is considering an election and their position can only get worse.

    The number of bills in the Queen's speech suggests this might be the last session before an election
    Yes. Line up a stack of "they can't be serious" bills which then become a manifesto. The oven-ready deal Mk2.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 54,884
    murali_s said:

    So thickos vote Tory. Not exactly breaking news…

    Thickos voted for Brexit, revisited.

    No doubt with sufficient lecturing from their betters they'll see the error of their ways and submit to the will of "people who know best".

    Never fails.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 16,049
    kjh said:

    OT. I am going to ask a question, but please don't answer. Just say whether you got it straight away or had to think about it.

    What is the longest river that flows into the Mediterranean?

    Straight away. Unless I am wrong of course.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 6,223
    IshmaelZ said:

    kjh said:

    OT. I am going to ask a question, but please don't answer. Just say whether you got it straight away or had to think about it.

    What is the longest river that flows into the Mediterranean?

    Straight away. Unless I am wrong of course.
    You won't be.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 19,698
    edited May 9

    dixiedean said:

    These points about age are very true.
    However. If so, age-based voting seems to be getting only worse.
    This isn't great for a healthy society.

    That is the real issue.

    I wholeheartedly agree with you. 👍
    And, of course, the effects. No incentive for policy to address inter nor cross-generational problems.
    It's becoming almost clientelist. On both sides.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 7,526
    Ipsos MORI provided a qualification comparison for different age bands for GE2019. There is a little residual effect from qualification, but it is absolutely swamped by the age difference.

    The clearest impact is an increase in Liberal Democrat voting with increasing level of education.


  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,261
    dixiedean said:

    What is the baseline for the above chart? Is it 2018 or GE or 2021? Also. Are the three samples of equal size?
    One of my pet hates is when they aren't. (Very common with age stats. A tiny 18-24 cohort and humungous 65+).
    Whichever. I don't think it's a great sign. We've been divided by age, now by education (although the two correlate).

    Yes one of my let peeves is the standard age splits - if It is going to be split at way it should have a descriptor which says what proportion of the population that is.

    In essence the young might be irrelevant in this story if the Tories lose 6 percentage points amongst the young but 1% among 65+ - that 1% could be much worse if they correlate to swing seats
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 19,698
    I was most scathing about the prospect of a cut and run election a few weeks ago.
    Now, I'm not too sure.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 18,739
    murali_s said:

    So thickos vote Tory. Not exactly breaking news…

    If only we could go back 200 years to when very select groups of people could vote and the general riff raff were shut out of the democratic process eh?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 26,806

    Ipsos MORI provided a qualification comparison for different age bands for GE2019. There is a little residual effect from qualification, but it is absolutely swamped by the age difference.

    The clearest impact is an increase in Liberal Democrat voting with increasing level of education.


    Thanks for the data - interesting.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 16,049
    kjh said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    kjh said:

    OT. I am going to ask a question, but please don't answer. Just say whether you got it straight away or had to think about it.

    What is the longest river that flows into the Mediterranean?

    Straight away. Unless I am wrong of course.
    You won't be.
    Could be wrong but just -- ------ about it.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 70,830
    edited May 9
    I see we are having our weekly flawed thread on graduates vs non-graduates, which Mike is well aware needs controlling for age, which then gets the usual tired response of only thickies vote Tory.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,261
    Scott_xP said:

    Hence my hypothesis that should Starmer have to quit that Johnson should call a snap election. There have been plenty of suggestions he is considering an election and their position can only get worse.

    The number of bills in the Queen's speech suggests this might be the last session before an election
    I'd been stunned if the Tories don't wait for the boundary changes
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 872
    edited May 9
    Putin's speech today was interesting for what he did not say. There was no big announcement that almost everyone was expecting. No mobilisation announced. However, there seems to be talk that Russian men are being mobilised anyway. That would surely indicate that a public announcement of mass mobilisation would not go down well. Signs of weakness and not strength on the Russian home front for Putin. Even if they are now mass mobilising it will take months for them to be ready. Next few weeks are critical.

    Edit: Just seen this thread on similar lines but lots more detail, particularly about a secret mobilisation: https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1523581053218172929
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 2,423
    kjh said:

    OT. I am going to ask a question, but please don't answer. Just say whether you got it straight away or had to think about it.

    What is the longest river that flows into the Mediterranean?

    About two seconds of "is there an obvious one?" and picturing a map of the Med before realising that there is, indeed, an obvious one.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 17,745

    murali_s said:

    So thickos vote Tory. Not exactly breaking news…

    Thickos voted for Brexit, revisited.

    No doubt with sufficient lecturing from their betters they'll see the error of their ways and submit to the will of "people who know best".

    Never fails.
    Plenty of thick remainers too. Anyway I blame the media for much of the "thick" image for leavers. My mate's parents are a good example. Both very intelligent people in their early 70s. Enthusiastic leavers for sane reasons. But now they are largely regurgitating spoon-fed guff they read in the newspapers (guess what they read...).

    My mate - like me - was also a leave voter. But is in despair that they are blaming the EU for having to fill in paperwork to travel on holiday. "This is what you voted for, look here it is in the Tory manifesto" from him just winds them up.

    So its not that people are thick, its that they never understood the details (on either side of the debate) and have been manipulated like crazy for years by the "news". Hence the red tape that we asked to be imposed being described as "EU red tape" by the Express and Mail which Rees-Mogg and Boris will now cut by scrapping chunks of the oven-ready deal.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 13,454
    Hmmm.

    Lots of potential correlation vs causation questions here.

    And the current polling in the Philippines might argue the opposite.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 18,471

    murali_s said:

    So thickos vote Tory. Not exactly breaking news…

    Thickos voted for Brexit, revisited.

    No doubt with sufficient lecturing from their betters they'll see the error of their ways and submit to the will of "people who know best".

    Never fails.
    Calling people that voted for Brexit thick is as useless and self-defeating as calling all Labour voters woke SJWs!
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 18,471
    Andy_JS said:

    The big question is why has Labour decided to become a party mainly for graduates rather than working-class people, since that was why it was set up in the first place.

    Are you saying London has no working-class people?
  • franklynfranklyn Posts: 255
    So why is domestic electricity in France 40% of the cost in the UK?
    We are told that prices have gone up here because energy costs have risen worldwide, but to what extend have ours been aggravated by hair-brained green levies, and utility taxes?

    Asking for a friend
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 28,267
    kjh said:

    OT. I am going to ask a question, but please don't answer. Just say whether you got it straight away or had to think about it.

    What is the longest river that flows into the Mediterranean?

    Had to think and still haven't got it.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,008
    I've always liked the ice-cream chimes hypothesis. For those who are too young to remember, the deaths by drowning are related to the presence of ice-cream chimes. The common factor is summer weather.

    As Thomas Huxley lamented 150 years ago ... 'The great tragedy of Science—the slaying of a beautiful hypothesis by an ugly fact.'

    As I've said many times. "The Great tragedy of old age - we've seen it all before."
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 54,884

    Up to a point, Lord Copper.

    Don't you need to control for age too?

    We know Tory support skews old, and graduates skew young, given the significant increase in HE over the last 20 years.

    So how much of this is an age effect?

    Exactly my thoughts and although the big push for higher education came in the early 2000s there was a significant expansion in the 90s so it would be interesting to see what the average voter age has done recently - if that is recorded.

    I note already that some are equating higher education to intelligence. From what I have seen some of the most intelligent people haven't been to university as they didn't see the cost benefit - again this is somewhat changing when nurses and policeman need to have a qualification called a degree rather than something more vocational.
    I found the Open University an eye-opener - having ascended the academic escalator from Cowley Tech to a company staffed with graduates. When I later did an OU degree some of the smartest, wisest people I met hadn't got beyond O levels academically - but were clearly very capable individuals.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,388

    Ipsos MORI provided a qualification comparison for different age bands for GE2019. There is a little residual effect from qualification, but it is absolutely swamped by the age difference.

    The clearest impact is an increase in Liberal Democrat voting with increasing level of education.


    Thanks for sharing the graph.
    I think there's a big drop in voting Tory from having a degree shown there, but mainly benefits the Lib Dems.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 2,423
    kinabalu said:

    kjh said:

    OT. I am going to ask a question, but please don't answer. Just say whether you got it straight away or had to think about it.

    What is the longest river that flows into the Mediterranean?

    Had to think and still haven't got it.
    Are you being Eurocentric?
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 17,745
    Andy_JS said:

    The big question is why has Labour decided to become a party mainly for graduates rather than working-class people, since that was why it was set up in the first place.

    The failure of the left is its obsession about class. Marx described two classes - where the working class encompasses most of us - yet the left only ever wang on about the "working class" of what almost feels like uneducated peasants.

    You can have a degree and be working class. You can even have a law degree like Ricky Ding Dong Burgon the chief clown car driver.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,261
    kinabalu said:

    I've seen this movie several times. PB Header highlights that the Tory vote is skewed to the uneducated. Various posters say this only shows their vote skews old since hardly anybody used to go to uni before 1975.

    (Damp squib from Putin, wasn't it. He's in quite a bind.)

    I think the point is that whilst it is useful it needs to be understood in context. As per the numbers above graduates skew younger - if you look at the average age of a voter, the average age of a graduate and the average age of a Labour supporter, I would bet that the second is closer to the third.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 19,698
    Andy_JS said:

    The big question is why has Labour decided to become a party mainly for graduates rather than working-class people, since that was why it was set up in the first place.

    You may also ask why the Conservative Party decided to be a party for the old?
    I don't think either did.
    It seems to have happened though. And relatively recently. 2010 onwards.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 6,223
    edited May 9
    Applicant said:

    kjh said:

    OT. I am going to ask a question, but please don't answer. Just say whether you got it straight away or had to think about it.

    What is the longest river that flows into the Mediterranean?

    About two seconds of "is there an obvious one?" and picturing a map of the Med before realising that there is, indeed, an obvious one.
    I'll wait a bit before explaining why I asked the question. You may of unintentionally helped others. This was posed by Paul Sinha and I found the response fascinating.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 1,453
    Interesting position the Lib Dems find themselves in with results like this. There is no getting away from it, they are now unambiguously the party of the professional elite. Do they (we, for I am a member) try to do something about this to avoid being boxed in as woke remoaner elitists, or lean into it?

    Unlike Labour or the Tories the Lib Dems don't necessarily need to hold together a wide electoral coalition. The SNP have shown that you can be very successful under FPTP if you max out support on one side of a political divide. I don't suggest the Lib Dems are anywhere near as concentrated or efficient in support as the SNP of course (the latter have I believe the lowest votes per seat of any major party while the Lib Dems do very badly on this, beaten only in inefficiency by the Greens and the various UKIP-esque parties).

    Do the Lib Dems indeed become the new destination party for graduate Labour voters who get older and wealthier and move out to the commuter belt and shires? Whereas in the past they might have jumped straight into voting Tory as their mortgages and house values grew?

    Though the party also has an opportunity with farming communities. Traditional Liberal base, and one of the more immediately disillusioned by the promises of Brexit. But I don't think appealing to farmers and wealthy graduates is particularly mutually exclusive, with the exception perhaps of some local NIMBY issues.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 17,745
    franklyn said:

    So why is domestic electricity in France 40% of the cost in the UK?
    We are told that prices have gone up here because energy costs have risen worldwide, but to what extend have ours been aggravated by hair-brained green levies, and utility taxes?

    Asking for a friend

    The UK's comical lack of investment into generating capacity has to be a chunk of it. We're currently taking 4% of our electricity from France who I assume are charging us handsomely for it.

    We still have coal power stations. Switch the bloody things back on for a bit so that we can shut down gas imports.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 26,806
    kinabalu said:

    kjh said:

    OT. I am going to ask a question, but please don't answer. Just say whether you got it straight away or had to think about it.

    What is the longest river that flows into the Mediterranean?

    Had to think and still haven't got it.
    Denial.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 6,223
    Applicant said:

    kinabalu said:

    kjh said:

    OT. I am going to ask a question, but please don't answer. Just say whether you got it straight away or had to think about it.

    What is the longest river that flows into the Mediterranean?

    Had to think and still haven't got it.
    Are you being Eurocentric?
    oh shush.
  • SussexJamesSussexJames Posts: 86
    kjh said:

    OT. I am going to ask a question, but please don't answer. Just say whether you got it straight away or had to think about it.

    What is the longest river that flows into the Mediterranean?

    I came up with one tentative answer, and then immediately realised what the right answer is. And why you're asking. So yes, I was. ;)
  • kjhkjh Posts: 6,223
    kinabalu said:

    kjh said:

    OT. I am going to ask a question, but please don't answer. Just say whether you got it straight away or had to think about it.

    What is the longest river that flows into the Mediterranean?

    Had to think and still haven't got it.
    Same as me and my wife then.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 97,799
    edited May 9
    This largely matches with the pattern of Thursday. The Tories biggest losses were in the poshest most affluent areas with lots of graduates, in London to Labour and the Home counties to the Liberal Democrats, from Westminster and Barnet and Wandsworth to Tunbridge Wells and Wokingham.

    However amongst areas with the fewest graduates as the chart shows the Conservatives voteshare actually increased, hence they held councils like Dudley and Walsall and gained seats in councils like Harlow.

    However partly age must be considered too as the older voters are the less likely they are to have been graduates and the Tories still do best with pensioners.

    Concerning for Labour that there voteshare only increased in areas with the most graduates, in areas with average or below average graduates their voteshare declined. Sir Keir's Labour party is surely the poshest Labour Party ever? Winning Hampstead and Westminster but failing to win working class areas of the Midlands.

    Even the LDs increased their voteshare in areas with average numbers of graduates as well as areas with the highest number of graduates
  • eekeek Posts: 18,825

    franklyn said:

    So why is domestic electricity in France 40% of the cost in the UK?
    We are told that prices have gone up here because energy costs have risen worldwide, but to what extend have ours been aggravated by hair-brained green levies, and utility taxes?

    Asking for a friend

    The UK's comical lack of investment into generating capacity has to be a chunk of it. We're currently taking 4% of our electricity from France who I assume are charging us handsomely for it.

    We still have coal power stations. Switch the bloody things back on for a bit so that we can shut down gas imports.
    We don't however have coal anymore - and as the heritage railways have found out the best source of coal (both in the quality they need and quantity as a whole) is Russia..
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 26,806
    GIN1138 said:

    murali_s said:

    So thickos vote Tory. Not exactly breaking news…

    If only we could go back 200 years to when very select groups of people could vote and the general riff raff were shut out of the democratic process eh?
    https://oll.libertyfund.org/page/1647-the-putney-debates
  • TimSTimS Posts: 1,453
    franklyn said:

    So why is domestic electricity in France 40% of the cost in the UK?
    We are told that prices have gone up here because energy costs have risen worldwide, but to what extend have ours been aggravated by hair-brained green levies, and utility taxes?

    Asking for a friend

    We have a different deregulated market which is more volatile than France. I've had a second home there for 15 years, and electricity prices have been significantly higher on average there than here in the UK. But during spikes like this our prices rocket up much more. In the good times it's cheaper to buy energy here, but in the bad times it's much worse.

  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 13,165

    Up to a point, Lord Copper.

    Don't you need to control for age too?

    We know Tory support skews old, and graduates skew young, given the significant increase in HE over the last 20 years.

    So how much of this is an age effect?

    Who cares? Well, Conservative supporters who see graduate status as a sign of merit care. They do not want to be called thick. But for purposes of prediction and betting, it does not really matter. If a constituency is full of degree-holders, whatever their age, put your betting boots on.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 10,465

    murali_s said:

    So thickos vote Tory. Not exactly breaking news…

    Thickos voted for Brexit, revisited.

    No doubt with sufficient lecturing from their betters they'll see the error of their ways and submit to the will of "people who know best".

    Never fails.
    Calling people that voted for Brexit thick is as useless and self-defeating as calling all Labour voters woke SJWs!
    I have met one or two intelligent people who voted Brexit. One or two post on here as well. Definitely a minority though. There, had to be said, the elephant in the room; emotionally led nationalism is generally for the supremely gullible.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 27,713
    rkrkrk said:

    Ipsos MORI provided a qualification comparison for different age bands for GE2019. There is a little residual effect from qualification, but it is absolutely swamped by the age difference.

    The clearest impact is an increase in Liberal Democrat voting with increasing level of education.


    Thanks for sharing the graph.
    I think there's a big drop in voting Tory from having a degree shown there, but mainly benefits the Lib Dems.
    Is there anywhere a graph from 20-25 years ago making the same comparison? In other words, is this a new phenomenon? As OGH pints out, the Americans have dividing samples up this way for a long time.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 19,698

    Up to a point, Lord Copper.

    Don't you need to control for age too?

    We know Tory support skews old, and graduates skew young, given the significant increase in HE over the last 20 years.

    So how much of this is an age effect?

    Exactly my thoughts and although the big push for higher education came in the early 2000s there was a significant expansion in the 90s so it would be interesting to see what the average voter age has done recently - if that is recorded.

    I note already that some are equating higher education to intelligence. From what I have seen some of the most intelligent people haven't been to university as they didn't see the cost benefit - again this is somewhat changing when nurses and policeman need to have a qualification called a degree rather than something more vocational.
    I found the Open University an eye-opener - having ascended the academic escalator from Cowley Tech to a company staffed with graduates. When I later did an OU degree some of the smartest, wisest people I met hadn't got beyond O levels academically - but were clearly very capable individuals.
    Have often wondered if it may be better if University was limited to application at age 30?
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,607
    kjh said:

    OT. I am going to ask a question, but please don't answer. Just say whether you got it straight away or had to think about it.

    What is the longest river that flows into the Mediterranean?

    Straight away - very obvious to me.
    Fascinated why you are asking the question though
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 3,312
    kjh said:

    kinabalu said:

    kjh said:

    OT. I am going to ask a question, but please don't answer. Just say whether you got it straight away or had to think about it.

    What is the longest river that flows into the Mediterranean?

    Had to think and still haven't got it.
    Same as me and my wife then.
    Would the Med include the Adriatic? In which case I'd guess the Po?
  • StockyStocky Posts: 7,971
    kjh said:

    Applicant said:

    kjh said:

    OT. I am going to ask a question, but please don't answer. Just say whether you got it straight away or had to think about it.

    What is the longest river that flows into the Mediterranean?

    About two seconds of "is there an obvious one?" and picturing a map of the Med before realising that there is, indeed, an obvious one.
    I'll wait a bit before explaining why I asked the question. You may of unintentionally helped others. This was posed by Paul Sinha and I found the response fascinating.
    My response was exactly the same as Applicant's. Took me about twenty seconds so not sure how you are judging "had to think about it".
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 3,312
    Pro_Rata said:

    kjh said:

    kinabalu said:

    kjh said:

    OT. I am going to ask a question, but please don't answer. Just say whether you got it straight away or had to think about it.

    What is the longest river that flows into the Mediterranean?

    Had to think and still haven't got it.
    Same as me and my wife then.
    Would the Med include the Adriatic? In which case I'd guess the Po?
    Oh, bugger, it is obvious!
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 2,423
    kjh said:

    Applicant said:

    kinabalu said:

    kjh said:

    OT. I am going to ask a question, but please don't answer. Just say whether you got it straight away or had to think about it.

    What is the longest river that flows into the Mediterranean?

    Had to think and still haven't got it.
    Are you being Eurocentric?
    oh shush.
    I was assuming people would read the question before the discussion of it...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 58,409
    Mr. Pioneers, the campaign for Remain was astonishingly bad. Leave was pretty rubbish but the absolute failure of Remain to make a positive case and then getting fixated on repeating the bus nonsense was... bizarre.

    Mr. JohnL, cheers for your advice on the previous thread.

    Degrees are so commonplace now they're hardly a sign of merit. I think those who go off into the real world of work are often worthier of praise than a lazy slide into university (he says as someone who went there more or less on autopilot).
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 13,165

    Andy_JS said:

    The big question is why has Labour decided to become a party mainly for graduates rather than working-class people, since that was why it was set up in the first place.

    The failure of the left is its obsession about class. Marx described two classes - where the working class encompasses most of us - yet the left only ever wang on about the "working class" of what almost feels like uneducated peasants.

    You can have a degree and be working class. You can even have a law degree like Ricky Ding Dong Burgon the chief clown car driver.
    Dominic Raab has two law degrees: one from Cambridge; one from Oxford. And he knows where Dover is. Take that Burgon!
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 19,698
    eek said:

    franklyn said:

    So why is domestic electricity in France 40% of the cost in the UK?
    We are told that prices have gone up here because energy costs have risen worldwide, but to what extend have ours been aggravated by hair-brained green levies, and utility taxes?

    Asking for a friend

    The UK's comical lack of investment into generating capacity has to be a chunk of it. We're currently taking 4% of our electricity from France who I assume are charging us handsomely for it.

    We still have coal power stations. Switch the bloody things back on for a bit so that we can shut down gas imports.
    We don't however have coal anymore - and as the heritage railways have found out the best source of coal (both in the quality they need and quantity as a whole) is Russia..
    Point of order.
    We do still have coal. We just don't mine it anymore.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 6,223
    edited May 9
    Lennon said:

    kjh said:

    OT. I am going to ask a question, but please don't answer. Just say whether you got it straight away or had to think about it.

    What is the longest river that flows into the Mediterranean?

    Straight away - very obvious to me.
    Fascinated why you are asking the question though
    The fact that several here haven't got it and I didn't and nor did my wife is a clue as to why I'm asking. If you did get it, it does sound like a bloody silly question to ask I agree.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 6,223
    Pro_Rata said:

    kjh said:

    kinabalu said:

    kjh said:

    OT. I am going to ask a question, but please don't answer. Just say whether you got it straight away or had to think about it.

    What is the longest river that flows into the Mediterranean?

    Had to think and still haven't got it.
    Same as me and my wife then.
    Would the Med include the Adriatic? In which case I'd guess the Po?
    Yes and no.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 28,267

    kinabalu said:

    I've seen this movie several times. PB Header highlights that the Tory vote is skewed to the uneducated. Various posters say this only shows their vote skews old since hardly anybody used to go to uni before 1975.

    (Damp squib from Putin, wasn't it. He's in quite a bind.)

    You could do something interesting, by correcting for the effect - breaking down voting patterns within each cohort.

    Not seen polling data for that, though.
    Tricky one. You'd need an exit poll with 2 further Qs to how did you vote.

    1. Did you go to uni?

    2. If "no" Is that because (a) you're not clever enough or (b) you didn't want to or (c) because there weren't the opportunities when you were a young un.

    And even then you'd get a lot of 'noise' in there.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 19,698
    Lennon said:

    kjh said:

    OT. I am going to ask a question, but please don't answer. Just say whether you got it straight away or had to think about it.

    What is the longest river that flows into the Mediterranean?

    Straight away - very obvious to me.
    Fascinated why you are asking the question though
    I got it very quickly.
    But it was interesting which geographical way round I approached the question.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 18,659
    Keir Starmer 'hoist by his own petard' says Andrew Neil

    Keir Starmer is a legend.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 13,533
    The river question is absolutely obvious.

    Am I missing something?
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,068
    AlistairM said:

    Putin's speech today was interesting for what he did not say. There was no big announcement that almost everyone was expecting. No mobilisation announced. However, there seems to be talk that Russian men are being mobilised anyway. That would surely indicate that a public announcement of mass mobilisation would not go down well. Signs of weakness and not strength on the Russian home front for Putin. Even if they are now mass mobilising it will take months for them to be ready. Next few weeks are critical.

    Edit: Just seen this thread on similar lines but lots more detail, particularly about a secret mobilisation: https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1523581053218172929

    They've said the same over on AH.com.
    Russia is mobilising, but in 'secret' [1].
    However, there was a good video on YouTube of a Russian General (who has probably now been shot) on Russian state media basically saying what good would mobilisation do as Russia doesn't have the equipment to arm the men (a lot of the good gear requires Western technology) [2], and would take months to properly train the soldiers anyway (so they're looking at a winter offensive before they can get going again - remind me how well those go).

    [1] I don't really know how you can mobilise in secret. The called up men are going to tell their wives, mums etc who won't be happy when they find out what is really going on.
    [2] Some vague talk, mostly joking, that the Russians will have to crack out the T34/85s. I'm sure its a job..... sure.....
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 3,530
    edited May 9
    franklyn said:

    So why is domestic electricity in France 40% of the cost in the UK?
    We are told that prices have gone up here because energy costs have risen worldwide, but to what extend have ours been aggravated by hair-brained green levies, and utility taxes?

    Asking for a friend

    France nuclear power 70%
    UK nuclear power 15%

    "Energy" (oil & gas) costs have risen worldwide but France are deriving their electricity from uranium, not "energy".

    Waits for PB pedant to perhaps say its not uranium its something else instead
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 28,267
    kjh said:

    kinabalu said:

    kjh said:

    OT. I am going to ask a question, but please don't answer. Just say whether you got it straight away or had to think about it.

    What is the longest river that flows into the Mediterranean?

    Had to think and still haven't got it.
    Same as me and my wife then.
    But I am poor on joggo tbf. Dropped it at 13.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 2,423
    dixiedean said:

    Lennon said:

    kjh said:

    OT. I am going to ask a question, but please don't answer. Just say whether you got it straight away or had to think about it.

    What is the longest river that flows into the Mediterranean?

    Straight away - very obvious to me.
    Fascinated why you are asking the question though
    I got it very quickly.
    But it was interesting which geographical way round I approached the question.
    I think it's more obvious if you start from "longest river" rather than "into the Med".
  • LeonLeon Posts: 19,359
    Immensely long article in the Spectator by that awful SeanT guy, who - Stuart tells me - still lurks here

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/does-an-unknown-extraordinarily-ancient-civilisation-lie-buried-under-eastern-turkey-
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 13,533
    IshmaelZ said:

    kjh said:

    OT. I am going to ask a question, but please don't answer. Just say whether you got it straight away or had to think about it.

    What is the longest river that flows into the Mediterranean?

    Straight away. Unless I am wrong of course.
    How could you be wrong? It's completely obvious surely? Maybe I am missing something?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 1,954
    Interesting thought on cost of living and political full circles. Given that CoL is a global crisis, are we going to see Johnson and Sunak go full Gordon and his 'started in America' garbage? And will Boz claim to have saved the world? I mean he'll definitely call someone something nasty like a bigot on hot mic (and just generally probably), but that's for later
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 18,659
    Labours tissue of lies re beergate gradually falling apart

    Should have been totally honest from day 1
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 7,526
    rkrkrk said:

    Ipsos MORI provided a qualification comparison for different age bands for GE2019. There is a little residual effect from qualification, but it is absolutely swamped by the age difference.

    The clearest impact is an increase in Liberal Democrat voting with increasing level of education.


    Thanks for sharing the graph.
    I think there's a big drop in voting Tory from having a degree shown there, but mainly benefits the Lib Dems.
    There's definitely a drop. I'm not sure I'd describe it as big when comparing to the age differences though.

    The full report from Ipsos MORI is interesting.

    https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/how-britain-voted-2019-election

    If you download their PDF they have a nice chart which shows how the age effect on voting exploded between the 2015 and 2017 GEs. It was always there, but it's so very much larger now.

    It's essentially the only divide in British politics that currently matters. Everything else is a mere detail.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 18,471
    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1523596971914715136

    Andy Haldane, former chief economist at Bank of England who is now govt adviser, tells @LBC that high inflation could remain until 2024

    He says 'things have even surpassed my own worst expectations' and criticises Bank for not acting sooner

    I wonder if BoJo really will go for another GE
This discussion has been closed.