Centre-right: 20.0% to 4.7%. Centre-left: 6.4% to 1.8%.
Roger please explain.
My message has been at first glance it looks like little has changed, but look closer and the electorate are a heck of a lot more… To the right? Hating the establishment even more? Even more anti EU? Even more anti immigration? Even more unhappy in how cost of living crisis, taxation and fairness in general is being handled by Macron?
Take green as an example. Someone in a yellow jacket protesting about fuel prices and fuel tax should not necessarily be thought of as anti-green, it simply shows green agenda’s cannot be rolled out without tax fairness and social justice at the same time.
Your original prediction was that Macron didn't get into the final two. The odds were so huge and you seemed so convinced I put everything I had on it........
I'm now selling the Big Issue on Tottenham Court Road.
(But at least it's not raining)
No Roger. My original prediction was Mélenchon makes top two - whoever however with Macron in top two beats him in round two.
My bet on Melenchon coming second was proved wrong. Yes. He got up to 20, but Zemmour iceberg melting into Le Pens slushy cocktail cost me.
A 12 for Zemmour could have been a 19 for Le Pen. Likewise a 12 from Pecresse could have been a 23% for Macron.
I called round 1 wrong and lost my bet because how the Pecresse and Zemmour fell more than I anticipated.
Macron gobbled “pecresse” votes up after first round last time, not during it. In the bigger picture He’s actually down not up, meanwhile Le Pen + Zemmour is 30%. Because the electorate has clearly moved in 5 years.
You admit it’s a different electorate this time?
To you have any inside knowledge or evidence for these wild predictions?
Well my wild prediction is actually by taking the Le Pen and Zemmour actual vote % off the errrrr mainstream TV channel in front of me and added together they work out as 30%.
You are aware there is a French General Election going on tonight Roger?
Yes I am aware. What gives you the idea that a majority of the French are anti EU?
What makes you sure EU membership not a driver of votes in this election?
I bow to no-one (well, maybe @isam) in my Euroscepticism, but the recent polling data has shown the French being rather more pro-EU than I would have expected
It's touch and go for Macron. Remember she'll get the majority of Zemmour and Dupont-Aignon's vote.
It would be interesting to know what (a) the expected abstention rates were immediately after the first round last time, and (b) what they ever up being.
Good question. Here's a poll from the day of the first round last time:
The bit of the chart that *really* stands out there is that a large number of first round abstentions went for Macron in the second round last time.
Although that’s what people said they were going to do so it needs to be cross referenced with what actually happened. I know that turnout was down in the second round and 3 million people voted for none of the above.
That chart shows exactly that: i.e. turnout meaningfully down if you look at Macron and Le Pen compared to the candidates previous votes, and with a surprising number of abstentions voting in the second round.
Good point. So the question is whether that kind of voter will be motivated to get out to vote for him a second time. If they were “stop Le Pen” voters, perhaps she’s done enough to detoxify herself for them not to bother.
Exactly.
It would be really interesting to compare her favourable/unfavourable in 2017 to now. My guess is that she's improved markedly, but at -29, she's still too negative to win. This time.
You are sounding very certain she can’t win, in a very tight and very fluid situation. We have though looked closely at this question in UK politics recently, I recall a header from Mike saying it depends what question is asked, how the satisfaction ratings calculated differently between pollsters.
What you are saying Robert, Le pen can’t win at -29, what hope for Boris Johnson at -47?
Isn’t French politics special place where no one is ever favoured very positively in satisfaction ratings, even the comfortable winners?
Eh?
I'm not certain. She is, as she has been for a little while, approximately a one-in-six shot. And one-in-six shots come in all the time. (Or, at least, about one in six times...)
That being said, this morning, she was probably one-in-five, maybe even one-in-four, but the combination of a relatively robust Macron vote share, Melechon's comments, and the relatively small pool of DA/Zemmour voters, means that she's (in my mind) moved out a little.
The betting markets have - however - overreacted. She's better than a 9-1 shot.
So like a six sided dice roll we don’t want to come up as a particular number? I understand that.
But when you said “ at -29, she's still too negative to win. This time.” that sounded like zero chance, not high as 1/6
It's touch and go for Macron. Remember she'll get the majority of Zemmour and Dupont-Aignon's vote.
It would be interesting to know what (a) the expected abstention rates were immediately after the first round last time, and (b) what they ever up being.
Good question. Here's a poll from the day of the first round last time:
The bit of the chart that *really* stands out there is that a large number of first round abstentions went for Macron in the second round last time.
Although that’s what people said they were going to do so it needs to be cross referenced with what actually happened. I know that turnout was down in the second round and 3 million people voted for none of the above.
That chart shows exactly that: i.e. turnout meaningfully down if you look at Macron and Le Pen compared to the candidates previous votes, and with a surprising number of abstentions voting in the second round.
Good point. So the question is whether that kind of voter will be motivated to get out to vote for him a second time. If they were “stop Le Pen” voters, perhaps she’s done enough to detoxify herself for them not to bother.
Exactly.
It would be really interesting to compare her favourable/unfavourable in 2017 to now. My guess is that she's improved markedly, but at -29, she's still too negative to win. This time.
You are sounding very certain she can’t win, in a very tight and very fluid situation. We have though looked closely at this question in UK politics recently, I recall a header from Mike saying it depends what question is asked, how the satisfaction ratings calculated differently between pollsters.
What you are saying Robert, Le pen can’t win at -29, what hope for Boris Johnson at -47?
Isn’t French politics special place where no one is ever favoured very positively in satisfaction ratings, even the comfortable winners?
Eh?
I'm not certain. She is, as she has been for a little while, approximately a one-in-six shot. And one-in-six shots come in all the time. (Or, at least, about one in six times...)
That being said, this morning, she was probably one-in-five, maybe even one-in-four, but the combination of a relatively robust Macron vote share, Melechon's comments, and the relatively small pool of DA/Zemmour voters, means that she's (in my mind) moved out a little.
The betting markets have - however - overreacted. She's better than a 9-1 shot.
So like a six sided dice roll we don’t want to come up as a particular number? I understand that.
But when you said “ at -29, she's still too negative to win. This time.” that sounded like zero chance, not high as 1/6
Le Pen at just 5% in Paris is truly extraordinary.
Maybe the battle lines of the future will be between major urban areas and the rest.
They already are, inner cities are overwhelmingly left liberal, rural areas overwhelmingly conservative.
The suburbs and towns in between.
Though Paris clearly hates Le Pen, even Pecresse and Jadot are doing better than Le Pen at the moment in the French capital, with well over half of the votes there going to Macron and Melenchon
The granular details of this election are fascinating
eg the wine country of Bordeaux is overwhelmingly Le Pen. All these famous names - Margaux, Pauillac, Medoc - sometimes she is on 40% with Macron on 20%. Or the gap is even bigger
What's that about?
I blithely assumed this was a fairly prosperous part of France, doing pretty well in the global wine trade, so it would be heavily Macron (also it is in western France, which tends to be more lefty). Yet absolutely not.
Can an expert elaborate? Rural workers angry at petrol prices? Can it be that simple? Or some deeper cultural phenomenon I do not understand?
Centre-right: 20.0% to 4.7%. Centre-left: 6.4% to 1.8%.
Roger please explain.
My message has been at first glance it looks like little has changed, but look closer and the electorate are a heck of a lot more… To the right? Hating the establishment even more? Even more anti EU? Even more anti immigration? Even more unhappy in how cost of living crisis, taxation and fairness in general is being handled by Macron?
Take green as an example. Someone in a yellow jacket protesting about fuel prices and fuel tax should not necessarily be thought of as anti-green, it simply shows green agenda’s cannot be rolled out without tax fairness and social justice at the same time.
Your original prediction was that Macron didn't get into the final two. The odds were so huge and you seemed so convinced I put everything I had on it........
I'm now selling the Big Issue on Tottenham Court Road.
(But at least it's not raining)
No Roger. My original prediction was Mélenchon makes top two - whoever however with Macron in top two beats him in round two.
My bet on Melenchon coming second was proved wrong. Yes. He got up to 20, but Zemmour iceberg melting into Le Pens slushy cocktail cost me.
A 12 for Zemmour could have been a 19 for Le Pen. Likewise a 12 from Pecresse could have been a 23% for Macron.
I called round 1 wrong and lost my bet because how the Pecresse and Zemmour fell more than I anticipated.
Macron gobbled “pecresse” votes up after first round last time, not during it. In the bigger picture He’s actually down not up, meanwhile Le Pen + Zemmour is 30%. Because the electorate has clearly moved in 5 years.
You admit it’s a different electorate this time?
To you have any inside knowledge or evidence for these wild predictions?
Well my wild prediction is actually by taking the Le Pen and Zemmour actual vote % off the errrrr mainstream TV channel in front of me and added together they work out as 30%.
You are aware there is a French General Election going on tonight Roger?
Yes I am aware. What gives you the idea that a majority of the French are anti EU?
What makes you sure EU membership not a driver of votes in this election?
I bow to no-one (well, maybe @isam) in my Euroscepticism, but the recent polling data has shown the French being rather more pro-EU than I would have expected
Edit to add: notable that Le Pen has largely dumped her Euroscepticism.
How exactly is eurosceptism held for long while get dumped and hidden by politician? She must still be trading vote loss and vote gains on it? It could also be a subtly different flavour in France than UK, more like feeling part of Europe more than us with our water in the way, but more Germanphobic, so EU less popular when Germans more dominant in it?
The granular details of this election are fascinating
eg the wine country of Bordeaux is overwhelmingly Le Pen. All these famous names - Margaux, Pauillac, Medoc - sometimes she is on 40% with Macron on 20%. Or the gap is even bigger
What's that about?
I blithely assumed this was a fairly prosperous part of France, doing pretty well in the global wine trade, so it would be heavily Macron (also it is in western France, which tends to be more lefty). Yet absolutely not.
Can an expert elaborate? Rural workers angry at petrol prices? Can it be that simple? Or some deeper cultural phenomenon I do not understand?
Shall I tell you something else that's bonkers.
France has some of the best undeveloped oil fields on the planet. Literally billions of barrels that are barely touched.
And where are they? Under Paris, under the Cote d'Azur and under the Bordeaux wine region.
Result: bugger all development.
Edit to add: things that I have lost money on, number 37 - assuming the French would be rational and allow drilling.
Centre-right: 20.0% to 4.7%. Centre-left: 6.4% to 1.8%.
Roger please explain.
My message has been at first glance it looks like little has changed, but look closer and the electorate are a heck of a lot more… To the right? Hating the establishment even more? Even more anti EU? Even more anti immigration? Even more unhappy in how cost of living crisis, taxation and fairness in general is being handled by Macron?
Take green as an example. Someone in a yellow jacket protesting about fuel prices and fuel tax should not necessarily be thought of as anti-green, it simply shows green agenda’s cannot be rolled out without tax fairness and social justice at the same time.
Your original prediction was that Macron didn't get into the final two. The odds were so huge and you seemed so convinced I put everything I had on it........
I'm now selling the Big Issue on Tottenham Court Road.
(But at least it's not raining)
No Roger. My original prediction was Mélenchon makes top two - whoever however with Macron in top two beats him in round two.
My bet on Melenchon coming second was proved wrong. Yes. He got up to 20, but Zemmour iceberg melting into Le Pens slushy cocktail cost me.
A 12 for Zemmour could have been a 19 for Le Pen. Likewise a 12 from Pecresse could have been a 23% for Macron.
I called round 1 wrong and lost my bet because how the Pecresse and Zemmour fell more than I anticipated.
Macron gobbled “pecresse” votes up after first round last time, not during it. In the bigger picture He’s actually down not up, meanwhile Le Pen + Zemmour is 30%. Because the electorate has clearly moved in 5 years.
You admit it’s a different electorate this time?
To you have any inside knowledge or evidence for these wild predictions?
Well my wild prediction is actually by taking the Le Pen and Zemmour actual vote % off the errrrr mainstream TV channel in front of me and added together they work out as 30%.
You are aware there is a French General Election going on tonight Roger?
Yes I am aware. What gives you the idea that a majority of the French are anti EU?
What makes you sure EU membership not a driver of votes in this election?
I bow to no-one (well, maybe @isam) in my Euroscepticism, but the recent polling data has shown the French being rather more pro-EU than I would have expected
Edit to add: notable that Le Pen has largely dumped her Euroscepticism.
How exactly is eurosceptism held for long while get dumped and hidden by politician? She must still be trading vote loss and vote gains on it? It could also be a subtly different flavour in France than UK, more like feeling part of Europe more than us with our water in the way, but more Germanphobic, so EU less popular when Germans more dominant in it?
Well, Marion Marechel-Le Pen and Le Pen Sr were the bigger Frexit voices (as was Zemmour).
Marine Le Pen, on the other hand, has given a number of speeches in the last few years about the EU can be a white Christian club that keeps the hordes from the door.
Le Pen at just 5% in Paris is truly extraordinary.
Maybe the battle lines of the future will be between major urban areas and the rest.
Why say the future, is this not part of this French election and politics today?
It wouldn’t be odd though would it, in US there is a democrat country on the coasts and Republican in the middle? I think Turkish leader doesn’t get much joy in the capital but dominates through his support outside cities? Probably same with Putin. France seems peculiarly regional. There is a fascinating heat map of the disunited republic of France in here, based on West East split, North South split voting in 2017s first round.
Le Pen at just 5% in Paris is truly extraordinary.
Maybe the battle lines of the future will be between major urban areas and the rest.
They already are, inner cities are overwhelmingly left liberal, rural areas overwhelmingly conservative.
The suburbs and towns in between.
Though Paris clearly hates Le Pen, even Pecresse and Jadot are doing better than Le Pen at the moment in the French capital, with well over half of the votes there going to Macron and Melenchon
Whatever happens, France is going to end this election even more bitterly polarised than before: the rural and small towns versus the big cities, especially the capital (with some fascinating anomalies)
It is Brexit and Trump redux. This is clearly a phenomenon sweeping most of the west
It was arguably predicted by Charles Murray in the Bell Curve. He foresaw that a "cognitive elite" would capture politics and accrue all the nice things, loyally supported by favoured minorities, thus engendering ever-greater bitterness in the rest of the nation: ie those who feel left behind (correctly or not)
Pecresse is less than 1/2% ahead of Jadot. Who'd have seen that? The 2 Party system of a decade ago has collapsed.
Arguably more a blip than a system, because you had constant civil war on the centre-right until eventually Sarkozy got enough hardline conservative support to firmly outpace the moderates (though he only won once). Before that you had Gaullists against Christian Democrats, or liberals, or other Gaullists, and in any case Le Pen was firmly on the scene by 2002.
The weakness of the greens in France is notable. I think the lack of non-proportional assembly voting is probably part of the issue, as it is in the UK.
It's fair to say the same about every force on the French left - most of them settle for Mélenchon and yet he barely gets 20%, so what hope for any of the other alignments? Europe Écologie did in fact finish #1 on the left in recent European elections and they hold a lot of big city halls, especially in prosperous university towns like Lyon. So I would not rule out that eventually they replace the PS.
Le Pen at just 5% in Paris is truly extraordinary.
Maybe the battle lines of the future will be between major urban areas and the rest.
They already are, inner cities are overwhelmingly left liberal, rural areas overwhelmingly conservative.
The suburbs and towns in between.
Though Paris clearly hates Le Pen, even Pecresse and Jadot are doing better than Le Pen at the moment in the French capital, with well over half of the votes there going to Macron and Melenchon
Whatever happens, France is going to end this election even more bitterly polarised than before: the rural and small towns versus the big cities, especially the capital (with some fascinating anomalies)
It is Brexit and Trump redux. This is clearly a phenomenon sweeping most of the west
It was arguably predicted by Charles Murray in the Bell Curve. He foresaw that a "cognitive elite" would capture politics and accrue all the nice things, loyally supported by favoured minorities, thus engendering ever-greater bitterness in the rest of the nation: ie those who feel left behind (correctly or not)
It’s ok though: it’s not like the French have a history of taking direct action when they feel aggrieved.
The granular details of this election are fascinating
eg the wine country of Bordeaux is overwhelmingly Le Pen. All these famous names - Margaux, Pauillac, Medoc - sometimes she is on 40% with Macron on 20%. Or the gap is even bigger
What's that about?
I blithely assumed this was a fairly prosperous part of France, doing pretty well in the global wine trade, so it would be heavily Macron (also it is in western France, which tends to be more lefty). Yet absolutely not.
Can an expert elaborate? Rural workers angry at petrol prices? Can it be that simple? Or some deeper cultural phenomenon I do not understand?
Shall I tell you something else that's bonkers.
France has some of the best undeveloped oil fields on the planet. Literally billions of barrels that are barely touched.
And where are they? Under Paris, under the Cote d'Azur and under the Bordeaux wine region.
Result: bugger all development.
Edit to add: things that I have lost money on, number 37 - assuming the French would be rational and allow drilling.
You put money on the French being rational?
Before you do that again, I’ll send you my PayPal and you can give it to me instead. Don’t waste it.
Anyway I have just in previous post a heatmap of what part of France voted what last time. Leon is right, Melenchon is popular in the mountains. There’s also an odd blob to the right of bourdoex that starts fillion in the middle, turns macron around that, then turns Melenchon around all the edges, and sits in a sea of Le Pen. Probably can’t be explained.
Le Pen at just 5% in Paris is truly extraordinary.
Maybe the battle lines of the future will be between major urban areas and the rest.
They already are, inner cities are overwhelmingly left liberal, rural areas overwhelmingly conservative.
The suburbs and towns in between.
Though Paris clearly hates Le Pen, even Pecresse and Jadot are doing better than Le Pen at the moment in the French capital, with well over half of the votes there going to Macron and Melenchon
Whatever happens, France is going to end this election even more bitterly polarised than before: the rural and small towns versus the big cities, especially the capital (with some fascinating anomalies)
It is Brexit and Trump redux. This is clearly a phenomenon sweeping most of the west
It was arguably predicted by Charles Murray in the Bell Curve. He foresaw that a "cognitive elite" would capture politics and accrue all the nice things, loyally supported by favoured minorities, thus engendering ever-greater bitterness in the rest of the nation: ie those who feel left behind (correctly or not)
It’s ok though: it’s not like the French have a history of taking direct action when they feel aggrieved.
I'm just looking at Corsica. Seems like at least 60% of them voted hard left or hard right (or even more extreme)
The only thing keeping the centre in the game is the electoral system. For now
Le Pen at just 5% in Paris is truly extraordinary.
Maybe the battle lines of the future will be between major urban areas and the rest.
They already are, inner cities are overwhelmingly left liberal, rural areas overwhelmingly conservative.
The suburbs and towns in between.
Though Paris clearly hates Le Pen, even Pecresse and Jadot are doing better than Le Pen at the moment in the French capital, with well over half of the votes there going to Macron and Melenchon
Whatever happens, France is going to end this election even more bitterly polarised than before: the rural and small towns versus the big cities, especially the capital (with some fascinating anomalies)
It is Brexit and Trump redux. This is clearly a phenomenon sweeping most of the west
It was arguably predicted by Charles Murray in the Bell Curve. He foresaw that a "cognitive elite" would capture politics and accrue all the nice things, loyally supported by favoured minorities, thus engendering ever-greater bitterness in the rest of the nation: ie those who feel left behind (correctly or not)
It’s ok though: it’s not like the French have a history of taking direct action when they feel aggrieved.
I'm just looking at Corsica. Seems like at least 60% of them voted hard left or hard right (or even more extreme)
The only thing keeping the centre in the game is the electoral system. For now
It’s really hard to get a sense of a country you don’t live in, but the complete death of the old two parties, and the risk of people feeling “forced” to vote for Macron, does feel like a recipe for unpleasantness. And also a recipe for a very volatile parliamentary election later in the year.
Le Pen at just 5% in Paris is truly extraordinary.
Maybe the battle lines of the future will be between major urban areas and the rest.
They already are, inner cities are overwhelmingly left liberal, rural areas overwhelmingly conservative.
The suburbs and towns in between.
Though Paris clearly hates Le Pen, even Pecresse and Jadot are doing better than Le Pen at the moment in the French capital, with well over half of the votes there going to Macron and Melenchon
Whatever happens, France is going to end this election even more bitterly polarised than before: the rural and small towns versus the big cities, especially the capital (with some fascinating anomalies)
It is Brexit and Trump redux. This is clearly a phenomenon sweeping most of the west
It was arguably predicted by Charles Murray in the Bell Curve. He foresaw that a "cognitive elite" would capture politics and accrue all the nice things, loyally supported by favoured minorities, thus engendering ever-greater bitterness in the rest of the nation: ie those who feel left behind (correctly or not)
It’s ok though: it’s not like the French have a history of taking direct action when they feel aggrieved.
I'm just looking at Corsica. Seems like at least 60% of them voted hard left or hard right (or even more extreme)
The only thing keeping the centre in the game is the electoral system. For now
It’s really hard to get a sense of a country you don’t live in, but the complete death of the old two parties, and the risk of people feeling “forced” to vote for Macron, does feel like a recipe for unpleasantness. And also a recipe for a very volatile parliamentary election later in the year.
Yes, it feels like this might be the last time the centre can squeeze out a victory (unless major events intervene between now and 2027)
At some point France is finally going to throw over the tables and do a proper strop. Seriously veering either left or right
JLM is even more pro Putin than Le Pen, I doubt he would be that upset.
Though still looks like Le Pen will narrowly get second place, currently she leads Melenchon by 0.8%
No he isn't. His opponents claim he is. He deniea it. Le Pen luxuriated in her closeness to Vlad. Until very recently. Black isn't white.
Melenchon wants to withdraw France from NATO, a huge boost for Putin
A France outside NATO under Melenchon would be hugely better for NATO than a Putin supporting President inside it. Get real. There'll be champagne flowing in Moscow if Le Pen wins. And you know it.
Sorry? The actual break up of NATO is better than France adopting a Gaullist position inside NATO?
What fucking nonsense. You just can't cope with the fact your own logic points you towards a Le Pen vote, in that thought experiment
JLM is even more pro Putin than Le Pen, I doubt he would be that upset.
Though still looks like Le Pen will narrowly get second place, currently she leads Melenchon by 0.8%
No he isn't. His opponents claim he is. He deniea it. Le Pen luxuriated in her closeness to Vlad. Until very recently. Black isn't white.
Melenchon wants to withdraw France from NATO, a huge boost for Putin
A France outside NATO under Melenchon would be hugely better for NATO than a Putin supporting President inside it. Get real. There'll be champagne flowing in Moscow if Le Pen wins. And you know it.
Sorry? The actual break up of NATO is better than France adopting a Gaullist position inside NATO?
What fucking nonsense. You just can't cope with the fact your own logic points you towards a Le Pen vote, in that thought experiment
Nope. Bollocks again. Putinite over lefty. That's your stance.
It's more complex than that, c'mon!
Look at the UK. We have the Tories accepting huge Russian donations v Corbyn, the impassioned defender of the oppressed.
On the face of it, who would be Putin's candidate? And yet.
Well. Who is Putin's candidate?
The answer is pretty straightforward. It works via a lobby system, not actually how much money has he given over but how much influence has Putin got for his ruble. Have any French politician ennobled Putin apologists, allowed them infrastructure contracts, media ownership or to own football clubs? That’s the way to calculate Putin’s candidates.
Putin really does not give the tiniest fuckovitch whether we allow Russian oligarchs to buy football clubs.
He wants the west weak, fractured, poor, Woke, and pathetic on defence
Corbyn in the UK and Melenchon in France would do that much better for him than, say, Farage in Westminster or Le Pen in the Elysee
The East German CDU hausfrau Merkel was probably his best friend of all, with her fondness for Ostpolitik and Nordstream 2
“ Putin really does not give the tiniest fuckovitch whether we allow Russian oligarchs to buy football clubs.”
We need to set you some homework, there’s things you need to learn.
Firstly try to come up with a sentence with launder and money in it. Secondly, try a sentence with the words power and soft. 😌
after footy clubs we will move onto property. Media. Infrastructure. And breweries.
Le Pen at just 5% in Paris is truly extraordinary.
Maybe the battle lines of the future will be between major urban areas and the rest.
They already are, inner cities are overwhelmingly left liberal, rural areas overwhelmingly conservative.
The suburbs and towns in between.
Though Paris clearly hates Le Pen, even Pecresse and Jadot are doing better than Le Pen at the moment in the French capital, with well over half of the votes there going to Macron and Melenchon
Whatever happens, France is going to end this election even more bitterly polarised than before: the rural and small towns versus the big cities, especially the capital (with some fascinating anomalies)
It is Brexit and Trump redux. This is clearly a phenomenon sweeping most of the west
It was arguably predicted by Charles Murray in the Bell Curve. He foresaw that a "cognitive elite" would capture politics and accrue all the nice things, loyally supported by favoured minorities, thus engendering ever-greater bitterness in the rest of the nation: ie those who feel left behind (correctly or not)
It’s ok though: it’s not like the French have a history of taking direct action when they feel aggrieved.
I'm just looking at Corsica. Seems like at least 60% of them voted hard left or hard right (or even more extreme)
The only thing keeping the centre in the game is the electoral system. For now
Of course under the "horribly simplistic" Anglo-Saxon FPTP system Macron would have been elected president tonight without the need for any further divisive campaigning.
Le Pen at just 5% in Paris is truly extraordinary.
Maybe the battle lines of the future will be between major urban areas and the rest.
They already are, inner cities are overwhelmingly left liberal, rural areas overwhelmingly conservative.
The suburbs and towns in between.
Though Paris clearly hates Le Pen, even Pecresse and Jadot are doing better than Le Pen at the moment in the French capital, with well over half of the votes there going to Macron and Melenchon
Whatever happens, France is going to end this election even more bitterly polarised than before: the rural and small towns versus the big cities, especially the capital (with some fascinating anomalies)
It is Brexit and Trump redux. This is clearly a phenomenon sweeping most of the west
It was arguably predicted by Charles Murray in the Bell Curve. He foresaw that a "cognitive elite" would capture politics and accrue all the nice things, loyally supported by favoured minorities, thus engendering ever-greater bitterness in the rest of the nation: ie those who feel left behind (correctly or not)
It’s ok though: it’s not like the French have a history of taking direct action when they feel aggrieved.
I'm just looking at Corsica. Seems like at least 60% of them voted hard left or hard right (or even more extreme)
The only thing keeping the centre in the game is the electoral system. For now
Of course under the "horribly simplistic" Anglo-Saxon FPTP system Macron would have been elected president tonight without the need for any further divisive campaigning.
Under FPTP there wouldn't have been as many candidates. Since you could have plausibly won the election on 30% or 40% of the vote, Le Pen wouldn't have needed to tone the fascism down to try to reach 51%. That would have avoided a challenge to the right, and she'd have won or lost depending whether everyone else was prepared to get behind a single candidate to beat her.
Centre-right: 20.0% to 4.7%. Centre-left: 6.4% to 1.8%.
Roger please explain.
My message has been at first glance it looks like little has changed, but look closer and the electorate are a heck of a lot more… To the right? Hating the establishment even more? Even more anti EU? Even more anti immigration? Even more unhappy in how cost of living crisis, taxation and fairness in general is being handled by Macron?
Take green as an example. Someone in a yellow jacket protesting about fuel prices and fuel tax should not necessarily be thought of as anti-green, it simply shows green agenda’s cannot be rolled out without tax fairness and social justice at the same time.
Your original prediction was that Macron didn't get into the final two. The odds were so huge and you seemed so convinced I put everything I had on it........
I'm now selling the Big Issue on Tottenham Court Road.
(But at least it's not raining)
No Roger. My original prediction was Mélenchon makes top two - whoever however with Macron in top two beats him in round two.
My bet on Melenchon coming second was proved wrong. Yes. He got up to 20, but Zemmour iceberg melting into Le Pens slushy cocktail cost me.
A 12 for Zemmour could have been a 19 for Le Pen. Likewise a 12 from Pecresse could have been a 23% for Macron.
I called round 1 wrong and lost my bet because how the Pecresse and Zemmour fell more than I anticipated.
Macron gobbled “pecresse” votes up after first round last time, not during it. In the bigger picture He’s actually down not up, meanwhile Le Pen + Zemmour is 30%. Because the electorate has clearly moved in 5 years.
You admit it’s a different electorate this time?
To you have any inside knowledge or evidence for these wild predictions?
Well my wild prediction is actually by taking the Le Pen and Zemmour actual vote % off the errrrr mainstream TV channel in front of me and added together they work out as 30%.
You are aware there is a French General Election going on tonight Roger?
Yes I am aware. What gives you the idea that a majority of the French are anti EU?
What makes you sure EU membership not a driver of votes in this election?
Total bullshit! Don't read anything printed in the Express. France is extremely pro EU. The ignorance about France on here is unusual. It's normally well informed. Amongst the huge generalisations that keep appearing what you can say is that France are generally anti US and therefore NATO. Pro EU by at least 2 to 1 and will never vote for Le Pen because they value their international reputation.
What would have been most amazing, 20 years ago, would have been the thought that the combined vote of socialist+ Gaulist presidential candidates would be comfortably under 10%.
Yes, despite the centrist (probably) going to win, there has still been some significant movements in the last couple of cycles away from those. Particualrly for the latter, since the socialists already collapsed last time.
What people should be alarmed about is over 50% of the vote going to anti NATO candidates. Particularly in light of the resurgence in interest towards NATO across Europe, and NATO being seen as key to the security of Europe.
If France wants to make sure NATO countries buy their weapons from the UK and US, that’s up to them.
French Election soundite: Macron pledged to increase the retirement age from 62 to 65, amongst others. What were his voter demographics?
His programme is a further demonstration of his "neither left, nor right" political positioning that borrows from both sides of the traditional divide in politics.
From the right wing, there are promises of more tax cuts for companies, thousands of new police officers and judges, and a rise in the retirement age to 65 from 62 in order to cut the pension system's massive debt.
"I take responsibility for telling you that yes: we need to work longer," he said at his first campaign rally last weekend.
From the left, he proposes raising the minimum level of pensions, new recruits for the health service, and a promise to make gender equality and tackling school harassment a priority.
Comments
YouGov did a poll last month: https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/96kojzktq9/YouGov - Ukraine EU membership.pdf
Edit to add: notable that Le Pen has largely dumped her Euroscepticism.
Edit II: WRONG POLL.
Edit III: The right one is here: https://whatukthinks.org/eu/eu-questions/if-there-was-a-referendum-on-frances-membership-of-the-eu-how-would-you-vote/ - 58% Remain, 21% Frexit. It is by YouGov.
But when you said “ at -29, she's still too negative to win. This time.” that sounded like zero chance, not high as 1/6
The suburbs and towns in between.
Though Paris clearly hates Le Pen, even Pecresse and Jadot are doing better than Le Pen at the moment in the French capital, with well over half of the votes there going to Macron and Melenchon
eg the wine country of Bordeaux is overwhelmingly Le Pen. All these famous names - Margaux, Pauillac, Medoc - sometimes she is on 40% with Macron on 20%. Or the gap is even bigger
What's that about?
I blithely assumed this was a fairly prosperous part of France, doing pretty well in the global wine trade, so it would be heavily Macron (also it is in western France, which tends to be more lefty). Yet absolutely not.
Can an expert elaborate? Rural workers angry at petrol prices? Can it be that simple? Or some deeper cultural phenomenon I do not understand?
France has some of the best undeveloped oil fields on the planet. Literally billions of barrels that are barely touched.
And where are they? Under Paris, under the Cote d'Azur and under the Bordeaux wine region.
Result: bugger all development.
Edit to add: things that I have lost money on, number 37 - assuming the French would be rational and allow drilling.
Marine Le Pen, on the other hand, has given a number of speeches in the last few years about the EU can be a white Christian club that keeps the hordes from the door.
It wouldn’t be odd though would it, in US there is a democrat country on the coasts and Republican in the middle? I think Turkish leader doesn’t get much joy in the capital but dominates through his support outside cities? Probably same with Putin.
France seems peculiarly regional. There is a fascinating heat map of the disunited republic of France in here, based on West East split, North South split voting in 2017s first round.
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/04/this-is-what-the-french-election-means-for-germany-and-europe/
It is Brexit and Trump redux. This is clearly a phenomenon sweeping most of the west
It was arguably predicted by Charles Murray in the Bell Curve. He foresaw that a "cognitive elite" would capture politics and accrue all the nice things, loyally supported by favoured minorities, thus engendering ever-greater bitterness in the rest of the nation: ie those who feel left behind (correctly or not)
Before you do that again, I’ll send you my PayPal and you can give it to me instead. Don’t waste it.
Anyway I have just in previous post a heatmap of what part of France voted what last time. Leon is right, Melenchon is popular in the mountains. There’s also an odd blob to the right of bourdoex that starts fillion in the middle, turns macron around that, then turns Melenchon around all the edges, and sits in a sea of Le Pen. Probably can’t be explained.
This heat map 2017s first round.
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/04/this-is-what-the-french-election-means-for-germany-and-europe/
The only thing keeping the centre in the game is the electoral system. For now
Bon nuit!
At some point France is finally going to throw over the tables and do a proper strop. Seriously veering either left or right
Might even happen this year, of course
We need to set you some homework, there’s things you need to learn.
Firstly try to come up with a sentence with launder and money in it. Secondly, try a sentence with the words power and soft. 😌
after footy clubs we will move onto property. Media. Infrastructure. And breweries.
Approval rating: 44% positive, 54% negative.
https://www.resultats-elections.interieur.gouv.fr/presidentielle-2022/011/075/index.html
Macron 9,558,637
Le Pen 8,107,769
Mélenchon 7,600,537
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/12/macron-hints-at-compromise-over-plan-to-raise-retirement-age-france-le-pen