Mélenchon takes to the microphone, chanted by the crowd as a winner. Key passage, repeated three times: "we must not give a single vote to Madame Le Pen. We must not give a single vote to Madame Le Pen. We must not give a single to Madame Le Pen."
No he didn't mention Macron at all, except obliquely as one of the two evils that people will have to choose between.
For Le Pen to win she has to succeed in making it a referendum on Macron instead of a referendum on her.
As Mrs Ed astutely pointed out today, French voters vote against candidates. So, the question now is which candidate that voters actively despise the most?
The consensual view is Le Pen because she is FN. That certainly was the case last time but Macron is known this time and, as the Gillet Jaunes have shown, he has managed to p1ss off a lot of people. Given the turnout, and especially given the polls had said things were tightening, it doesn't seem like casting Le Pen as a demon is motivating voters in the same way.
Many people may not want Le Pen but I can't think of many French voters who want another 5 years of Macron.
Yes, Le Pen’s job in the next fortnight is to ensure the second round is seen as a referendum on Macron.
Interesting how many second round predictions on here are ignoring the opinion polls.
I presume it's because people are assuming the same level of poll miss as last time.
Post 1st round every single poll over estimated Le Pen and under estimated Macron. By a lot.
59/41 was a not untypical poll in 2017. For an end result of 66/34
It's quite possible Macron outperforms the poll average by 5% or so like last time and gets 58-60% (most polls have had him on 53/54%) although the dynamic is still hard to read. I am also taking on board some of Moonrabbit's reasoning.
Macron getting over 60% would be a really big surprise though.
Macron (EC-RE): 51% (-16) Le Pen (RN-ID): 49% (+16)
+/- vs. 2017 election
Fieldwork: 10 April 2022 (after 20:00) Sample size: 1,000
That is .. uncomfortably close
The view on here seems to be that Melenchon's voters will react like they did last time i.e. majority switch to Macron. I'm not sure that is true this time.
Bear in mind, 5 years ago, the world was a different place. In particular, there was not the standard of living crisis that there is today and which has been going on in France for several years. Le Pen has attached herself to that issue like a limpet mine. Macron, shall we say, is not exactly empathetic.
Many who voted for Melenchon are likely to be impacted by the same issue. Maybe they don't vote for Le Pen but they may decide they can't vote for Macron and abstain.
Put it another way, Le Pen effectively starts off the 2nd round with 30%+ (Le Pen + Zemmour). Macron will get the Socialist plus Green vote so that will take him to c. 35%. We do not know how much of Fillon's 2017 vote was 'cannibalised' by Macron this time round and how much went to Le Pen / Zemmour but it's hard to determine how Pecresse's vote will split. It doesn't take many of Melenchon's voters to say "f*ck it, we can't put up with this much longer" to make things very competitive.
Do bear in mind that France doesn't have anything like the standard of living crisis that other countries do.
French homes are heated off electricity, and prices there increase only marginally this year. (Because France owns EDF.)
So while Brits and Germans are going to see exploding electricity, gas and petrol bills, the French only face the last of these.
Indeed but as @williamglenn said, it's about perceptions.
I was in Paris this week and the price of everything has rocketed. Restaurant prices have gone through the roof - yet they are all booked out.
My feeling is that there has been a very sharpening of the divide - those with assets have done very well, those without not - and feel angry about it.
I think that a very astute post. You could go to the cities and think there is no problem for Macron, soon it becomes a bit more countrified the divisive swing against him can happen, where they are poorer and live a different life, and view Macrons promises differently.
To answer what happens in two weeks we need a mind set there is more than one France and investigate What are all the Frances thinking right now. It could be hard to poll.
Macron (EC-RE): 51% (-16) Le Pen (RN-ID): 49% (+16)
+/- vs. 2017 election
Fieldwork: 10 April 2022 (after 20:00) Sample size: 1,000
That is .. uncomfortably close
The view on here seems to be that Melenchon's voters will react like they did last time i.e. majority switch to Macron. I'm not sure that is true this time.
Bear in mind, 5 years ago, the world was a different place. In particular, there was not the standard of living crisis that there is today and which has been going on in France for several years. Le Pen has attached herself to that issue like a limpet mine. Macron, shall we say, is not exactly empathetic.
Many who voted for Melenchon are likely to be impacted by the same issue. Maybe they don't vote for Le Pen but they may decide they can't vote for Macron and abstain.
Put it another way, Le Pen effectively starts off the 2nd round with 30%+ (Le Pen + Zemmour). Macron will get the Socialist plus Green vote so that will take him to c. 35%. We do not know how much of Fillon's 2017 vote was 'cannibalised' by Macron this time round and how much went to Le Pen / Zemmour but it's hard to determine how Pecresse's vote will split. It doesn't take many of Melenchon's voters to say "f*ck it, we can't put up with this much longer" to make things very competitive.
Do bear in mind that France doesn't have anything like the standard of living crisis that other countries do.
French homes are heated off electricity, and prices there increase only marginally this year. (Because France owns EDF.)
So while Brits and Germans are going to see exploding electricity, gas and petrol bills, the French only face the last of these.
I still stand by my prediction, what we are looking at is Macron needing the votes from an electorate who don’t really like him - or his policies, or his love for EU - in order to survive. My analysis from tonight’s votes, added to my analysis of real shifts in French electorate, is Macron loses.
Shifts in French electorate? It’s much like HY insisting if UK has a general election in June, Big Dog loses his majority and gets less votes than Labour. Why? How can views change so much in UK in two and half years, but not shift in France in five?
this central to Macrons continued miscalculation of the mood and his defeat: Someone in a yellow jacket protesting about fuel prices and fuel tax should not necessarily be thought of as anti-green, nor thought of as extreme right or hard left, it simply shows green agenda’s, or anybody’s reforms cannot be rolled out without tax fairness and social justice at the same time. There can be no reform imposed by the rich which does not protect the working poor without kickback.
Put money on Le Pen then. you will get a good return if she wins. Personally I think her chances have improved in the last 2 hours. not because he has done well, or because of any other movement form one minor candidate to another, but I think some petechial 'to Macron' voters might get complacent by theses results and not come out in R2. Macron is still the most lickly winner in my view by quite a big margin, but maybe not as big as the betting market things.
I bet pretty small compared to many on here, but if Le Pen becomes long enough in the next 24 hours I think I will put some money on her, in the hope/expectation that at some point in the next 2 weeks sentiment changes and then being able to put some on Macron and be green across the board.
And indeed necrophilia is a good Greek word for a reason
You said "As Ariadne said to the bishop".
IshmaelZ please explain?
Bollocks, wrong legend. I need to take a minor tour of Greek mythology to avoid confusion like that again.
A-maze-ing that the labyrinthine posts on PB could prove to be your Achilles heel.
You’ll give him an (Oedipal) complex if you carry on fleecing him like that. At las(t) we’ll have some peace
I was off sick when they done Classics in school, I was watching horse racing with my Nan. She told me the Gods put caterpillars on the earth to hold up the ceilings in catacombs.
Latest forecast Melenchon is only 0.8% behind Le Pen.
Gosh, that's closed a lot.
I thought these special exit polls infallible?
Do I now have to un concede a bet I have conceded and Mike rewrite the header?
I think Ariege is the only area in Mainland France outside parts of Paris that Melenchon has actually topped the poll though unless things have changed?
Macron (EC-RE): 51% (-16) Le Pen (RN-ID): 49% (+16)
+/- vs. 2017 election
Fieldwork: 10 April 2022 (after 20:00) Sample size: 1,000
That is .. uncomfortably close
The view on here seems to be that Melenchon's voters will react like they did last time i.e. majority switch to Macron. I'm not sure that is true this time.
Bear in mind, 5 years ago, the world was a different place. In particular, there was not the standard of living crisis that there is today and which has been going on in France for several years. Le Pen has attached herself to that issue like a limpet mine. Macron, shall we say, is not exactly empathetic.
Many who voted for Melenchon are likely to be impacted by the same issue. Maybe they don't vote for Le Pen but they may decide they can't vote for Macron and abstain.
Put it another way, Le Pen effectively starts off the 2nd round with 30%+ (Le Pen + Zemmour). Macron will get the Socialist plus Green vote so that will take him to c. 35%. We do not know how much of Fillon's 2017 vote was 'cannibalised' by Macron this time round and how much went to Le Pen / Zemmour but it's hard to determine how Pecresse's vote will split. It doesn't take many of Melenchon's voters to say "f*ck it, we can't put up with this much longer" to make things very competitive.
Do bear in mind that France doesn't have anything like the standard of living crisis that other countries do.
French homes are heated off electricity, and prices there increase only marginally this year. (Because France owns EDF.)
So while Brits and Germans are going to see exploding electricity, gas and petrol bills, the French only face the last of these.
I still stand by my prediction, what we are looking at is Macron needing the votes from an electorate who don’t really like him - or his policies, or his love for EU - in order to survive. My analysis from tonight’s votes, added to my analysis of real shifts in French electorate, is Macron loses.
Shifts in French electorate? It’s much like HY insisting if UK has a general election in June, Big Dog loses his majority and gets less votes than Labour. Why? How can views change so much in UK in two and half years, but not shift in France in five?
this central to Macrons continued miscalculation of the mood and his defeat: Someone in a yellow jacket protesting about fuel prices and fuel tax should not necessarily be thought of as anti-green, nor thought of as extreme right or hard left, it simply shows green agenda’s, or anybody’s reforms cannot be rolled out without tax fairness and social justice at the same time. There can be no reform imposed by the rich which does not protect the working poor without kickback.
Put money on Le Pen then. you will get a good return if she wins. Personally I think her chances have improved in the last 2 hours. not because he has done well, or because of any other movement form one minor candidate to another, but I think some petechial 'to Macron' voters might get complacent by theses results and not come out in R2. Macron is still the most lickly winner in my view by quite a big margin, but maybe not as big as the betting market things.
I bet pretty small compared to many on here, but if Le Pen becomes long enough in the next 24 hours I think I will put some money on her, in the hope/expectation that at some point in the next 2 weeks sentiment changes and then being able to put some on Macron and be green across the board.
Thanks for the betting tip. I had £25 on Mélenchon at 80-1 last month. I might sit out the rest of this now.
Has anyone else ever found a ladder in their en suite?
Of course. It's a euro- organo-ergonomic bowel-movement facilitator!
1. Seat your . . . self on toilet seat 2. Position ladder upright just before you firmly grasping each side with one hand 3. Raise your feet and place them on first rung of ladder 4. Lean forward SLOWLY while bending your back so as to balance your . . . self just above the toilet 5. Enjoy!
Interesting how many second round predictions on here are ignoring the opinion polls.
I presume it's because people are assuming the same level of poll miss as last time.
Post 1st round every single poll over estimated Le Pen and under estimated Macron. By a lot.
59/41 was a not untypical poll in 2017. For an end result of 66/34
It's quite possible Macron outperforms the poll average by 5% or so like last time and gets 58-60% (most polls have had him on 53/54%) although the dynamic is still hard to read. I am also taking on board some of Moonrabbit's reasoning.
Macron getting over 60% would be a really big surprise though.
So the polls got it wrong last time in quite a big way but unnoticed in fact Macron on for big win got even bigger win. Are French elections notoriously hard to poll right, all these different enclaves of different things? They seem to have more varied political options than we have in UK.
I mean, could the polls end up saying 5 point macron win and it turn into narrow Le Pen win other side the blackout?
I see I started a debate on Franco on the last thread and then l walked away, but was interested in reading what people had to say afterwards.
@MattW asked a good question about how many were happy to go on holiday in Spain at the time. My excuse is I had no choice as a child and didn't go when I wasn't, but in fairness that wasn't because of Franco and it is fair to say people didn't care then. We should have, but it was different times.
Macron (EC-RE): 51% (-16) Le Pen (RN-ID): 49% (+16)
+/- vs. 2017 election
Fieldwork: 10 April 2022 (after 20:00) Sample size: 1,000
That is .. uncomfortably close
The view on here seems to be that Melenchon's voters will react like they did last time i.e. majority switch to Macron. I'm not sure that is true this time.
Bear in mind, 5 years ago, the world was a different place. In particular, there was not the standard of living crisis that there is today and which has been going on in France for several years. Le Pen has attached herself to that issue like a limpet mine. Macron, shall we say, is not exactly empathetic.
Many who voted for Melenchon are likely to be impacted by the same issue. Maybe they don't vote for Le Pen but they may decide they can't vote for Macron and abstain.
Put it another way, Le Pen effectively starts off the 2nd round with 30%+ (Le Pen + Zemmour). Macron will get the Socialist plus Green vote so that will take him to c. 35%. We do not know how much of Fillon's 2017 vote was 'cannibalised' by Macron this time round and how much went to Le Pen / Zemmour but it's hard to determine how Pecresse's vote will split. It doesn't take many of Melenchon's voters to say "f*ck it, we can't put up with this much longer" to make things very competitive.
Do bear in mind that France doesn't have anything like the standard of living crisis that other countries do.
French homes are heated off electricity, and prices there increase only marginally this year. (Because France owns EDF.)
So while Brits and Germans are going to see exploding electricity, gas and petrol bills, the French only face the last of these.
Wood at 18% seems very high, perhaps people who have an open fire/wood burner but also have electric or gas, self identify as having there homes heated by 'wood' when in reality its a combination. Or maybe there are just a lot of old French homes still heated by wood?
That's mainly France still being only one or two generations from being a peasant country (as my French teacher used to describe it).
They have far more rural homes - reasonable given the geography and forest cover.
France has 37m houses for 67m people; we have under 30m.
To a lesser extent, we have more woodstoves in Scotland than England - again, pop. density effect and more homes off grid.
Interesting how many second round predictions on here are ignoring the opinion polls.
I presume it's because people are assuming the same level of poll miss as last time.
Post 1st round every single poll over estimated Le Pen and under estimated Macron. By a lot.
59/41 was a not untypical poll in 2017. For an end result of 66/34
It's quite possible Macron outperforms the poll average by 5% or so like last time and gets 58-60% (most polls have had him on 53/54%) although the dynamic is still hard to read. I am also taking on board some of Moonrabbit's reasoning.
Macron getting over 60% would be a really big surprise though.
So the polls got it wrong last time in quite a big way but unnoticed in fact Macron on for big win got even bigger win. Are French elections notoriously hard to poll right, all these different enclaves of different things? They seem to have more varied political options than we have in UK.
I mean, could the polls end up saying 5 point macron win and it turn into narrow Le Pen win other side the blackout?
Mélenchon takes to the microphone, chanted by the crowd as a winner. Key passage, repeated three times: "we must not give a single vote to Madame Le Pen. We must not give a single vote to Madame Le Pen. We must not give a single to Madame Le Pen."
No he didn't mention Macron at all, except obliquely as one of the two evils that people will have to choose between.
For Le Pen to win she has to succeed in making it a referendum on Macron instead of a referendum on her.
As Mrs Ed astutely pointed out today, French voters vote against candidates. So, the question now is which candidate that voters actively despise the most?
The consensual view is Le Pen because she is FN. That certainly was the case last time but Macron is known this time and, as the Gillet Jaunes have shown, he has managed to p1ss off a lot of people. Given the turnout, and especially given the polls had said things were tightening, it doesn't seem like casting Le Pen as a demon is motivating voters in the same way.
Many people may not want Le Pen but I can't think of many French voters who want another 5 years of Macron.
Yes, Le Pen’s job in the next fortnight is to ensure the second round is seen as a referendum on Macron.
“ he has managed to p1ss off a lot of people “.
Macrons reform merely pointed out a lot of people felt unfairly treated by the tax system before he even began to make it worse for them and better for those already wealthy, it wasn’t like extremists of right or hard left agitating, but ordinary everyday people feeling hard done by. And to be fair, Macron did retreat and surrender to some extent, that’s what really brought the protests to an end. But my point is, the people affected and as you say “pissed off” may well have voted macron to put him in, not extremist in mind normally.
ISTM that driving direct electric heating to heat pumps would be a sensible parallel program to reduce demand some; they already have a decent HP industry whilst we are having to grow one.
Macron (EC-RE): 51% (-16) Le Pen (RN-ID): 49% (+16)
+/- vs. 2017 election
Fieldwork: 10 April 2022 (after 20:00) Sample size: 1,000
That is .. uncomfortably close
The view on here seems to be that Melenchon's voters will react like they did last time i.e. majority switch to Macron. I'm not sure that is true this time.
Bear in mind, 5 years ago, the world was a different place. In particular, there was not the standard of living crisis that there is today and which has been going on in France for several years. Le Pen has attached herself to that issue like a limpet mine. Macron, shall we say, is not exactly empathetic.
Many who voted for Melenchon are likely to be impacted by the same issue. Maybe they don't vote for Le Pen but they may decide they can't vote for Macron and abstain.
Put it another way, Le Pen effectively starts off the 2nd round with 30%+ (Le Pen + Zemmour). Macron will get the Socialist plus Green vote so that will take him to c. 35%. We do not know how much of Fillon's 2017 vote was 'cannibalised' by Macron this time round and how much went to Le Pen / Zemmour but it's hard to determine how Pecresse's vote will split. It doesn't take many of Melenchon's voters to say "f*ck it, we can't put up with this much longer" to make things very competitive.
Do bear in mind that France doesn't have anything like the standard of living crisis that other countries do.
French homes are heated off electricity, and prices there increase only marginally this year. (Because France owns EDF.)
So while Brits and Germans are going to see exploding electricity, gas and petrol bills, the French only face the last of these.
What matters isn't an objective comparison but voters' own perception.
Sure.
And that is that the average Brit is going to see a massive decline in disposable income, while the average Frenchman is going to see a small one.
Or, to put it another way, don't extrapolate your cost of living issues onto the French.
Macron (EC-RE): 51% (-16) Le Pen (RN-ID): 49% (+16)
+/- vs. 2017 election
Fieldwork: 10 April 2022 (after 20:00) Sample size: 1,000
That is .. uncomfortably close
The view on here seems to be that Melenchon's voters will react like they did last time i.e. majority switch to Macron. I'm not sure that is true this time.
Bear in mind, 5 years ago, the world was a different place. In particular, there was not the standard of living crisis that there is today and which has been going on in France for several years. Le Pen has attached herself to that issue like a limpet mine. Macron, shall we say, is not exactly empathetic.
Many who voted for Melenchon are likely to be impacted by the same issue. Maybe they don't vote for Le Pen but they may decide they can't vote for Macron and abstain.
Put it another way, Le Pen effectively starts off the 2nd round with 30%+ (Le Pen + Zemmour). Macron will get the Socialist plus Green vote so that will take him to c. 35%. We do not know how much of Fillon's 2017 vote was 'cannibalised' by Macron this time round and how much went to Le Pen / Zemmour but it's hard to determine how Pecresse's vote will split. It doesn't take many of Melenchon's voters to say "f*ck it, we can't put up with this much longer" to make things very competitive.
Do bear in mind that France doesn't have anything like the standard of living crisis that other countries do.
French homes are heated off electricity, and prices there increase only marginally this year. (Because France owns EDF.)
So while Brits and Germans are going to see exploding electricity, gas and petrol bills, the French only face the last of these.
I don't know where they get their numbers from but they simply aren't correct.
A remarkable number (millions) of French homes are heated by waste heat from power generation, and that simply isn't on the list. And no way is wood anything like that number.
Macron (EC-RE): 51% (-16) Le Pen (RN-ID): 49% (+16)
+/- vs. 2017 election
Fieldwork: 10 April 2022 (after 20:00) Sample size: 1,000
That is .. uncomfortably close
The view on here seems to be that Melenchon's voters will react like they did last time i.e. majority switch to Macron. I'm not sure that is true this time.
Bear in mind, 5 years ago, the world was a different place. In particular, there was not the standard of living crisis that there is today and which has been going on in France for several years. Le Pen has attached herself to that issue like a limpet mine. Macron, shall we say, is not exactly empathetic.
Many who voted for Melenchon are likely to be impacted by the same issue. Maybe they don't vote for Le Pen but they may decide they can't vote for Macron and abstain.
Put it another way, Le Pen effectively starts off the 2nd round with 30%+ (Le Pen + Zemmour). Macron will get the Socialist plus Green vote so that will take him to c. 35%. We do not know how much of Fillon's 2017 vote was 'cannibalised' by Macron this time round and how much went to Le Pen / Zemmour but it's hard to determine how Pecresse's vote will split. It doesn't take many of Melenchon's voters to say "f*ck it, we can't put up with this much longer" to make things very competitive.
Do bear in mind that France doesn't have anything like the standard of living crisis that other countries do.
French homes are heated off electricity, and prices there increase only marginally this year. (Because France owns EDF.)
So while Brits and Germans are going to see exploding electricity, gas and petrol bills, the French only face the last of these.
What matters isn't an objective comparison but voters' own perception.
Sure.
And that is that the average Brit is going to see a massive decline in disposable income, while the average Frenchman is going to see a small one.
Or, to put it another way, don't extrapolate your cost of living issues onto the French.
The french started on the cost of living crisis years ago when the yellow vests kicked off over rural fuel prices.
Has anyone else ever found a ladder in their en suite?
Of course. It's a euro- organo-ergonomic bowel-movement facilitator!
1. Seat your . . . self on toilet seat 2. Position ladder upright just before you firmly grasping each side with one hand 3. Raise your feet and place them on first rung of ladder 4. Lean forward SLOWLY while bending your back so as to balance your . . . self just above the toilet 5. Enjoy!
As the optimistic Bishop said to the Actress.
That's an interesting electrical switch next to the water. 12V, I hope.
The Guardian have suddenly changed their numbers from the "forecast/projection" they had previously to the actual votes counted so far, which is 27.3 / 25.8 / 19.7.
Macron (EC-RE): 51% (-16) Le Pen (RN-ID): 49% (+16)
+/- vs. 2017 election
Fieldwork: 10 April 2022 (after 20:00) Sample size: 1,000
That is .. uncomfortably close
The view on here seems to be that Melenchon's voters will react like they did last time i.e. majority switch to Macron. I'm not sure that is true this time.
Bear in mind, 5 years ago, the world was a different place. In particular, there was not the standard of living crisis that there is today and which has been going on in France for several years. Le Pen has attached herself to that issue like a limpet mine. Macron, shall we say, is not exactly empathetic.
Many who voted for Melenchon are likely to be impacted by the same issue. Maybe they don't vote for Le Pen but they may decide they can't vote for Macron and abstain.
Put it another way, Le Pen effectively starts off the 2nd round with 30%+ (Le Pen + Zemmour). Macron will get the Socialist plus Green vote so that will take him to c. 35%. We do not know how much of Fillon's 2017 vote was 'cannibalised' by Macron this time round and how much went to Le Pen / Zemmour but it's hard to determine how Pecresse's vote will split. It doesn't take many of Melenchon's voters to say "f*ck it, we can't put up with this much longer" to make things very competitive.
Do bear in mind that France doesn't have anything like the standard of living crisis that other countries do.
French homes are heated off electricity, and prices there increase only marginally this year. (Because France owns EDF.)
So while Brits and Germans are going to see exploding electricity, gas and petrol bills, the French only face the last of these.
Wood at 18% seems very high, perhaps people who have an open fire/wood burner but also have electric or gas, self identify as having there homes heated by 'wood' when in reality its a combination. Or maybe there are just a lot of old French homes still heated by wood?
That's mainly France still being only one or two generations from being a peasant country (as my French teacher used to describe it).
They have far more rural homes - reasonable given the geography and forest cover.
France has 37m houses for 67m people; we have under 30m.
To a lesser extent, we have more woodstoves in Scotland than England - again, pop. density effect and more homes off grid.
Peter Tatchell @PeterTatchell I spoke at #Ukraine solidarity protest at Downing Street today. Ukrainians said: "The socialists & unions do not support us. Why? They just oppose NATO.” Some socialists & unions do support Ukraine. But many Ukrainians feel betrayed by most of the left
Has anyone else ever found a ladder in their en suite?
Would never happen hear.
Some bugger of a lawyer would (correctly) argue that it is an invitation and permission for a guest to use it, so the establishment gets done when they break their neck.
Has anyone else ever found a ladder in their en suite?
Of course. It's a euro- organo-ergonomic bowel-movement facilitator!
1. Seat your . . . self on toilet seat 2. Position ladder upright just before you firmly grasping each side with one hand 3. Raise your feet and place them on first rung of ladder 4. Lean forward SLOWLY while bending your back so as to balance your . . . self just above the toilet 5. Enjoy!
Centre-right: 20.0% to 4.7%. Centre-left: 6.4% to 1.8%.
Roger please explain.
My message has been at first glance it looks like little has changed, but look closer and the electorate are a heck of a lot more… To the right? Hating the establishment even more? Even more anti EU? Even more anti immigration? Even more unhappy in how cost of living crisis, taxation and fairness in general is being handled by Macron?
Take green as an example. Someone in a yellow jacket protesting about fuel prices and fuel tax should not necessarily be thought of as anti-green, it simply shows green agenda’s cannot be rolled out without tax fairness and social justice at the same time.
Your original prediction was that Macron didn't get into the final two. The odds were so huge and you seemed so convinced I put everything I had on it........
I'm now selling the Big Issue on Tottenham Court Road.
(But at least it's not raining)
No Roger. My original prediction was Mélenchon makes top two - whoever however with Macron in top two beats him in round two.
My bet on Melenchon coming second was proved wrong. Yes. He got up to 20, but Zemmour iceberg melting into Le Pens slushy cocktail cost me.
A 12 for Zemmour could have been a 19 for Le Pen. Likewise a 12 from Pecresse could have been a 23% for Macron.
I called round 1 wrong and lost my bet because how the Pecresse and Zemmour fell more than I anticipated.
Macron gobbled “pecresse” votes up after first round last time, not during it. In the bigger picture He’s actually down not up, meanwhile Le Pen + Zemmour is 30%. Because the electorate has clearly moved in 5 years.
You admit it’s a different electorate this time?
To you have any inside knowledge or evidence for these wild predictions?
Macron (EC-RE): 51% (-16) Le Pen (RN-ID): 49% (+16)
+/- vs. 2017 election
Fieldwork: 10 April 2022 (after 20:00) Sample size: 1,000
That is .. uncomfortably close
The view on here seems to be that Melenchon's voters will react like they did last time i.e. majority switch to Macron. I'm not sure that is true this time.
Bear in mind, 5 years ago, the world was a different place. In particular, there was not the standard of living crisis that there is today and which has been going on in France for several years. Le Pen has attached herself to that issue like a limpet mine. Macron, shall we say, is not exactly empathetic.
Many who voted for Melenchon are likely to be impacted by the same issue. Maybe they don't vote for Le Pen but they may decide they can't vote for Macron and abstain.
Put it another way, Le Pen effectively starts off the 2nd round with 30%+ (Le Pen + Zemmour). Macron will get the Socialist plus Green vote so that will take him to c. 35%. We do not know how much of Fillon's 2017 vote was 'cannibalised' by Macron this time round and how much went to Le Pen / Zemmour but it's hard to determine how Pecresse's vote will split. It doesn't take many of Melenchon's voters to say "f*ck it, we can't put up with this much longer" to make things very competitive.
Do bear in mind that France doesn't have anything like the standard of living crisis that other countries do.
French homes are heated off electricity, and prices there increase only marginally this year. (Because France owns EDF.)
So while Brits and Germans are going to see exploding electricity, gas and petrol bills, the French only face the last of these.
I don't know where they get their numbers from but they simply aren't correct.
A remarkable number (millions) of French homes are heated by waste heat from power generation, and that simply isn't on the list. And no way is wood anything like that number.
"Heating with heating network"? 3%
Also, it adds up to more than 100%, I think to allow for more than one method.
Macron (EC-RE): 51% (-16) Le Pen (RN-ID): 49% (+16)
+/- vs. 2017 election
Fieldwork: 10 April 2022 (after 20:00) Sample size: 1,000
That is .. uncomfortably close
The view on here seems to be that Melenchon's voters will react like they did last time i.e. majority switch to Macron. I'm not sure that is true this time.
Bear in mind, 5 years ago, the world was a different place. In particular, there was not the standard of living crisis that there is today and which has been going on in France for several years. Le Pen has attached herself to that issue like a limpet mine. Macron, shall we say, is not exactly empathetic.
Many who voted for Melenchon are likely to be impacted by the same issue. Maybe they don't vote for Le Pen but they may decide they can't vote for Macron and abstain.
Put it another way, Le Pen effectively starts off the 2nd round with 30%+ (Le Pen + Zemmour). Macron will get the Socialist plus Green vote so that will take him to c. 35%. We do not know how much of Fillon's 2017 vote was 'cannibalised' by Macron this time round and how much went to Le Pen / Zemmour but it's hard to determine how Pecresse's vote will split. It doesn't take many of Melenchon's voters to say "f*ck it, we can't put up with this much longer" to make things very competitive.
Do bear in mind that France doesn't have anything like the standard of living crisis that other countries do.
French homes are heated off electricity, and prices there increase only marginally this year. (Because France owns EDF.)
So while Brits and Germans are going to see exploding electricity, gas and petrol bills, the French only face the last of these.
I don't know where they get their numbers from but they simply aren't correct.
A remarkable number (millions) of French homes are heated by waste heat from power generation, and that simply isn't on the list. And no way is wood anything like that number.
"Heating with heating network"? 3%
Also, it adds up to more than 100%, I think to allow for more than one method.
And then there are apartment complexes with central heating units...
Centre-right: 20.0% to 4.7%. Centre-left: 6.4% to 1.8%.
Roger please explain.
My message has been at first glance it looks like little has changed, but look closer and the electorate are a heck of a lot more… To the right? Hating the establishment even more? Even more anti EU? Even more anti immigration? Even more unhappy in how cost of living crisis, taxation and fairness in general is being handled by Macron?
Take green as an example. Someone in a yellow jacket protesting about fuel prices and fuel tax should not necessarily be thought of as anti-green, it simply shows green agenda’s cannot be rolled out without tax fairness and social justice at the same time.
Your original prediction was that Macron didn't get into the final two. The odds were so huge and you seemed so convinced I put everything I had on it........
I'm now selling the Big Issue on Tottenham Court Road.
(But at least it's not raining)
No Roger. My original prediction was Mélenchon makes top two - whoever however with Macron in top two beats him in round two.
My bet on Melenchon coming second was proved wrong. Yes. He got up to 20, but Zemmour iceberg melting into Le Pens slushy cocktail cost me.
A 12 for Zemmour could have been a 19 for Le Pen. Likewise a 12 from Pecresse could have been a 23% for Macron.
I called round 1 wrong and lost my bet because how the Pecresse and Zemmour fell more than I anticipated.
Macron gobbled “pecresse” votes up after first round last time, not during it. In the bigger picture He’s actually down not up, meanwhile Le Pen + Zemmour is 30%. Because the electorate has clearly moved in 5 years.
You admit it’s a different electorate this time?
To you have any inside knowledge or evidence for these wild predictions?
Well my wild prediction is actually by taking the Le Pen and Zemmour actual vote % off the errrrr mainstream TV channel in front of me and added together they work out as 30%.
You are aware there is a French General Election going on tonight Roger?
Note Pecresse's vote splits equally between Le Pen and Macron (35% vs 35%, with 30% blank / no vote). Only 56% of the Green's 1st round vote goes to Macron.
Peter Tatchell @PeterTatchell I spoke at #Ukraine solidarity protest at Downing Street today. Ukrainians said: "The socialists & unions do not support us. Why? They just oppose NATO.” Some socialists & unions do support Ukraine. But many Ukrainians feel betrayed by most of the left
It's touch and go for Macron. Remember she'll get the majority of Zemmour and Dupont-Aignon's vote.
It would be interesting to know what (a) the expected abstention rates were immediately after the first round last time, and (b) what they ever up being.
Macron (EC-RE): 51% (-16) Le Pen (RN-ID): 49% (+16)
+/- vs. 2017 election
Fieldwork: 10 April 2022 (after 20:00) Sample size: 1,000
That is .. uncomfortably close
The view on here seems to be that Melenchon's voters will react like they did last time i.e. majority switch to Macron. I'm not sure that is true this time.
Bear in mind, 5 years ago, the world was a different place. In particular, there was not the standard of living crisis that there is today and which has been going on in France for several years. Le Pen has attached herself to that issue like a limpet mine. Macron, shall we say, is not exactly empathetic.
Many who voted for Melenchon are likely to be impacted by the same issue. Maybe they don't vote for Le Pen but they may decide they can't vote for Macron and abstain.
Put it another way, Le Pen effectively starts off the 2nd round with 30%+ (Le Pen + Zemmour). Macron will get the Socialist plus Green vote so that will take him to c. 35%. We do not know how much of Fillon's 2017 vote was 'cannibalised' by Macron this time round and how much went to Le Pen / Zemmour but it's hard to determine how Pecresse's vote will split. It doesn't take many of Melenchon's voters to say "f*ck it, we can't put up with this much longer" to make things very competitive.
Do bear in mind that France doesn't have anything like the standard of living crisis that other countries do.
French homes are heated off electricity, and prices there increase only marginally this year. (Because France owns EDF.)
So while Brits and Germans are going to see exploding electricity, gas and petrol bills, the French only face the last of these.
I don't know where they get their numbers from but they simply aren't correct.
A remarkable number (millions) of French homes are heated by waste heat from power generation, and that simply isn't on the list. And no way is wood anything like that number.
That's an interesting comment. I would really like to see some accurate numbers. Looking in various places - those I quote are roughly what is stated.
The list has "3% linked to heating networks", which is about 1.5m homes. Is that it?
But everything I am seeing - including election coverage, says that cost of living is the big issue. Perhaps perceived as linked to Macron's reforms.
Energy costs seem to be up 20%+ over the last 12 months. A big hike in gas last September, before Mons Macron put 10 billion of the increase onto the shareholders of EDF ie 85% the Govt next year.
It's touch and go for Macron. Remember she'll get the majority of Zemmour and Dupont-Aignon's vote.
It would be interesting to know what (a) the expected abstention rates were immediately after the first round last time, and (b) what they ever up being.
This is how it ended up last time, Fillion and Melenchon had 40% the bigger block going to Macron, another significant block abstaining.
This time it’s already different Robert with at least 15% of moderate votes not there for Macron?
It's touch and go for Macron. Remember she'll get the majority of Zemmour and Dupont-Aignon's vote.
It would be interesting to know what (a) the expected abstention rates were immediately after the first round last time, and (b) what they ever up being.
Good question. Here's a poll from the day of the first round last time:
Yes, Pecresses vote going 35% to each of Le Pen and Macron is a surprise to me. what are the best odds for Le Pen at the moment?
Remember it’s only 5%. Some 15% of what Fillion got last time I presume (Roger calls it fantasy guesswork) Macron got early this time as I can’t see any other moderates benefitting. Yet he’s only gone 5% or so?
They update constantly. Best bit of the French election. You can drill right down to commune level. I checked out my commune in Saône et Loire, where it happens the family is staying this week (without me). Macron 41%, then Melenchon, then Jadot then Le Pen then Zemmour. 13 people in the village out of 117 voters went for one of the two fascists. Trying to guess which ones.
There are some really interesting geographical and geological patterns. Look at Bourgogne franche comté where this is clearest.
Peter Tatchell @PeterTatchell I spoke at #Ukraine solidarity protest at Downing Street today. Ukrainians said: "The socialists & unions do not support us. Why? They just oppose NATO.” Some socialists & unions do support Ukraine. But many Ukrainians feel betrayed by most of the left
Yes, Pecresses vote going 35% to each of Le Pen and Macron is a surprise to me. what are the best odds for Le Pen at the moment?
Remember it’s only 5%. Some 15% of what Fillion got last time I presume (Roger calls it fantasy guesswork) Macron got early this time as I can’t see any other moderates benefitting. Yet he’s only gone 5% or so?
Contact of be that. But the other way of looking at the numbers is the centre and left are roughly as you were, and that a chunk of the Fillion vote last time went for the stronger meat of le Pen and Zemmour this time. Hopefully, someone is testing that question.
Macron (EC-RE): 51% (-16) Le Pen (RN-ID): 49% (+16)
+/- vs. 2017 election
Fieldwork: 10 April 2022 (after 20:00) Sample size: 1,000
That is .. uncomfortably close
The view on here seems to be that Melenchon's voters will react like they did last time i.e. majority switch to Macron. I'm not sure that is true this time.
Bear in mind, 5 years ago, the world was a different place. In particular, there was not the standard of living crisis that there is today and which has been going on in France for several years. Le Pen has attached herself to that issue like a limpet mine. Macron, shall we say, is not exactly empathetic.
Many who voted for Melenchon are likely to be impacted by the same issue. Maybe they don't vote for Le Pen but they may decide they can't vote for Macron and abstain.
Put it another way, Le Pen effectively starts off the 2nd round with 30%+ (Le Pen + Zemmour). Macron will get the Socialist plus Green vote so that will take him to c. 35%. We do not know how much of Fillon's 2017 vote was 'cannibalised' by Macron this time round and how much went to Le Pen / Zemmour but it's hard to determine how Pecresse's vote will split. It doesn't take many of Melenchon's voters to say "f*ck it, we can't put up with this much longer" to make things very competitive.
Do bear in mind that France doesn't have anything like the standard of living crisis that other countries do.
French homes are heated off electricity, and prices there increase only marginally this year. (Because France owns EDF.)
So while Brits and Germans are going to see exploding electricity, gas and petrol bills, the French only face the last of these.
I don't know where they get their numbers from but they simply aren't correct.
A remarkable number (millions) of French homes are heated by waste heat from power generation, and that simply isn't on the list. And no way is wood anything like that number.
That's an interesting comment. I would really like to see some accurate numbers. Looking in various places - those I quote are roughly what is stated.
The list has "3% linked to heating networks", which is about 1.5m homes. Is that it?
But everything I am seeing - including election coverage, says that cost of living is the big issue. Perhaps perceived as linked to Macron's reforms.
Energy costs seem to be up 20%+ over the last 12 months. A big hike in gas last September, before Mons Macron put 10 billion of the increase onto the shareholders of EDF ie 85% the Govt next year.
One thing I will agree with Young Mr Smithson on is that that is significantly less than the EU average which we roughly are in line with, which is a 12 month increase of 45%.
They update constantly. Best bit of the French election. You can drill right down to commune level. I checked out my commune in Saône et Loire, where it happens the family is staying this week (without me). Macron 41%, then Melenchon, then Jadot then Le Pen then Zemmour. 13 people in the village out of 117 voters went for one of the two fascists. Trying to guess which ones.
There are some really interesting geographical and geological patterns. Look at Bourgogne franche comté where this is clearest.
They update constantly. Best bit of the French election. You can drill right down to commune level. I checked out my commune in Saône et Loire, where it happens the family is staying this week (without me). Macron 41%, then Melenchon, then Jadot then Le Pen then Zemmour. 13 people in the village out of 117 voters went for one of the two fascists. Trying to guess which ones.
There are some really interesting geographical and geological patterns. Look at Bourgogne franche comté where this is clearest.
Right now, it looks like a narrow Macron victory in the second round.
But Le Pen could pull it off, especially if she performs well in the debate on the 20th.
When we hear Le Pen, do we think of the extreme unelectable party of her father?
But has both her repositioning/makeover to centre, and the electorates drift towards Wanting tighter immigration and EU scepticism (spanning left to right) means many French voters today, particularly former LR ones, see her differently than the PB consensus of what she stands for? Add to that the centrist candidate is filthy rich with a programme of reforms that will hurt the working poor even more right now? I not saying Macron’s reform or domestic programme is wrong, only when you enter a campaign be judicious and in tune with the electorate. Macron has entered this race distracted by international politics, on a platform handing voters to Le Pen he can I’ll afford to do?
Why call it a shock result in French election if she wins?
That suggests it will be closer than my predicted 55/45 macron win
Hmmm
She gets ALL of Zemmour
Going to be an interesting 2 weeks
She probably won’t get all of Zemmour. There will be people who bought into Z’s intellectual fascismo but might find Le Pen a bit non-U, there will be some who saw her as “part of the establishment and just as bad as the rest” and there will be misogynists too.
Right now, it looks like a narrow Macron victory in the second round.
But Le Pen could pull it off, especially if she performs well in the debate on the 20th.
When we hear Le Pen, do we think of the extreme unelectable party of her father?
But has both her repositioning/makeover to centre, and the electorates drift towards Wanting tighter immigration and EU scepticism (spanning left to right) means many French voters today, particularly former LR ones, see her differently than the PB consensus of what she stands for? Add to that the centrist candidate is filthy rich with a programme of reforms that will hurt the working poor even more right now? I not saying Macron’s reform or domestic programme is wrong, only when you enter a campaign be judicious and in tune with the electorate. Macron has entered this race distracted by international politics, on a platform handing voters to Le Pen he can I’ll afford to do?
Why call it a shock result in French election if she wins?
I’d buy a lot of that except for the Putinist elephant in the room. She may not be her father, but she is friendly with, an apologist for, and at one time funded by Putin. And she likes Trump.
That suggests it will be closer than my predicted 55/45 macron win
Hmmm
She gets ALL of Zemmour
Going to be an interesting 2 weeks
She probably won’t get all of Zemmour. There will be people who bought into Z’s intellectual fascismo but might find Le Pen a bit non-U, there will be some who saw her as “part of the establishment and just as bad as the rest” and there will be misogynists too.
Plus there's the same old, same old factor. There seems to have been a Le Pen running for most of my adult life. She's hardly not the political elite.
That suggests it will be closer than my predicted 55/45 macron win
Hmmm
She gets ALL of Zemmour
Going to be an interesting 2 weeks
She probably won’t get all of Zemmour. There will be people who bought into Z’s intellectual fascismo but might find Le Pen a bit non-U, there will be some who saw her as “part of the establishment and just as bad as the rest” and there will be misogynists too.
Isn't it just going to come down to turnout?
All the fancy Sankey diagrams are fun to look at but ultimately it comes down to who didn't vote this round, but will in the next. And for whom.
Has any turnout differential analysis popped up yet?
To be fair to @MoonRabbit, a Le Pen victory would rank middling on 'big shocks' I've experienced while lurking on PB.
Trump Brexit Le Pen 2015 Tory Majority May collapse v Corbyn Sudden 50:50 Indy ref polling
For those of us of the younger, interest rates < 1% generation, we've been conditioned to go with the weird option.
At last, fairness for MoonRabbits consistent analysis on this.
So far in this thread we have had posters saying - woah Macron, do you really want your supporters waving all those EU flags if you really want to win this. Posts asking “how many flipping different countries is France?” Posts mentioning rural poor hurt by fuel prices, someone asking “when is Macron actually going to start campaigning” he needs to get off phone to Putin and start campaigning if he wants to win.
I’ve been saying for weeks, has the French electorate drifted to the right? And how will the Melenchon and LR vote behave this time. We are beginning to get some answers to those questions now, and to be fair to MoonRabbit, she wasn’t too wrong in asking these questions on a betting site was she?
Comments
Macron getting over 60% would be a really big surprise though.
To answer what happens in two weeks we need a mind set there is more than one France and investigate What are all the Frances thinking right now. It could be hard to poll.
I bet pretty small compared to many on here, but if Le Pen becomes long enough in the next 24 hours I think I will put some money on her, in the hope/expectation that at some point in the next 2 weeks sentiment changes and then being able to put some on Macron and be green across the board.
@rebeccakerswell
Shanghai is the 3rd largest city in the world with 28 million people…
And operates the largest sea port in the world in terms of cargo… as the total lockdown continues, the subway ridership remains at zero…
The supply disruptions will be felt far and wide…
https://twitter.com/rebeccakerswell/status/1513211601276456960
Prepare now to be shown how to bat and ball.
Do I now have to un concede a bet I have conceded and Mike rewrite the header?
1. Seat your . . . self on toilet seat
2. Position ladder upright just before you firmly grasping each side with one hand
3. Raise your feet and place them on first rung of ladder
4. Lean forward SLOWLY while bending your back so as to balance your . . . self just above the toilet
5. Enjoy!
I mean, could the polls end up saying 5 point macron win and it turn into narrow Le Pen win other side the blackout?
MACRON - 7,137,810 - 27.23%
LE PEN - 6,867,505 - 26.20%
MÉLENCHON - 5,060,522 - 19.31%
https://www.resultats-elections.interieur.gouv.fr/presidentielle-2022/FE.html
@MattW asked a good question about how many were happy to go on holiday in Spain at the time. My excuse is I had no choice as a child and didn't go when I wasn't, but in fairness that wasn't because of Franco and it is fair to say people didn't care then. We should have, but it was different times.
They have far more rural homes - reasonable given the geography and forest cover.
France has 37m houses for 67m people; we have under 30m.
To a lesser extent, we have more woodstoves in Scotland than England - again, pop. density effect and more homes off grid.
Macrons reform merely pointed out a lot of people felt unfairly treated by the tax system before he even began to make it worse for them and better for those already wealthy, it wasn’t like extremists of right or hard left agitating, but ordinary everyday people feeling hard done by. And to be fair, Macron did retreat and surrender to some extent, that’s what really brought the protests to an end. But my point is, the people affected and as you say “pissed off” may well have voted macron to put him in, not extremist in mind normally.
Macron has committed to €55bn+ on 6 new nuclear power stations by 2050.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/macron-bets-nuclear-carbon-neutrality-push-announces-new-reactors-2022-02-10/
ISTM that driving direct electric heating to heat pumps would be a sensible parallel program to reduce demand some; they already have a decent HP industry whilst we are having to grow one.
They have the same age problem with nuclear that we do. Here's a piece from 2021 about extending the life of 32 nuclear power station for up to an extra decade, which takes some to 50 years:
https://apnews.com/article/germany-france-65e850616971ecc05027d2e69cb7d189
And that is that the average Brit is going to see a massive decline in disposable income, while the average Frenchman is going to see a small one.
Or, to put it another way, don't extrapolate your cost of living issues onto the French.
A remarkable number (millions) of French homes are heated by waste heat from power generation, and that simply isn't on the list. And no way is wood anything like that number.
That's an interesting electrical switch next to the water. 12V, I hope.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2022/apr/10/french-election-2022-projected-result-and-latest-results
Peter Tatchell
@PeterTatchell
I spoke at #Ukraine solidarity protest at Downing Street today. Ukrainians said: "The socialists & unions do not support us. Why? They just oppose NATO.” Some socialists & unions do support Ukraine. But many Ukrainians feel betrayed by most of the left
https://twitter.com/PeterTatchell/status/1513254624597360647
Some bugger of a lawyer would (correctly) argue that it is an invitation and permission for a guest to use it, so the establishment gets done when they break their neck.
Also, it adds up to more than 100%, I think to allow for more than one method.
But all the errrr mainstream media are calling them exist polls. What do you want me to call them?
@ 74% Le Pen 26.34% / Melenchon 19.19%
@ 82% Le Pen 25.67% / Melenchon 19.84%
Basically. It's complicated.
Also Pecresse's vote splits 35% each for Macron, Le Pen with 30% for neither.
https://twitter.com/DariusRochebin/status/1513249132558827521
Macron 7,808,099
Le Pen 7,309,533
Mélenchon 5,659,725
Over the next week, I would expect to see quite a lot of the "not planning to vote", go with an alternative candidate.
You are aware there is a French General Election going on tonight Roger?
But Le Pen could pull it off, especially if she performs well in the debate on the 20th.
Hmmm
She gets ALL of Zemmour
Going to be an interesting 2 weeks
The list has "3% linked to heating networks", which is about 1.5m homes. Is that it?
But everything I am seeing - including election coverage, says that cost of living is the big issue. Perhaps perceived as linked to Macron's reforms.
Energy costs seem to be up 20%+ over the last 12 months. A big hike in gas last September, before Mons Macron put 10 billion of the increase onto the shareholders of EDF ie 85% the Govt next year.
I think these are Le Pen's best scores.
This time it’s already different Robert with at least 15% of moderate votes not there for Macron?
https://twitter.com/mathieugallard/status/856243407626350592
https://www.francetvinfo.fr/elections/resultats/
They update constantly. Best bit of the French election. You can drill right down to commune level. I checked out my commune in Saône et Loire, where it happens the family is staying this week (without me). Macron 41%, then Melenchon, then Jadot then Le Pen then Zemmour. 13 people in the village out of 117 voters went for one of the two fascists. Trying to guess which ones.
There are some really interesting geographical and geological patterns. Look at Bourgogne franche comté where this is clearest.
https://twitter.com/timsarson1/status/1513262192740741128?s=21
The 2 Party system of a decade ago has collapsed.
Trump
Brexit
Le Pen
2015 Tory Majority
May collapse v Corbyn
Sudden 50:50 Indy ref polling
For those of us of the younger, interest rates < 1% generation, we've been conditioned to go with the weird option.
https://www.francetvinfo.fr/elections/resultats/loire-atlantique_44/
Le Pen sweeping up the whole North East. And Melenchon bizarrely thriving in all the high mountain regions. It’s like 3 countries.
A French friend of mine currently preparing for an Everest exped in Nepal reckons Le Pen will do it. Might be the altitude talking.
https://twitter.com/timsarson1/status/1513189965936664577?s=21
Just to see the look on Putin’s face.
But has both her repositioning/makeover to centre, and the electorates drift towards Wanting tighter immigration and EU scepticism (spanning left to right) means many French voters today, particularly former LR ones, see her differently than the PB consensus of what she stands for? Add to that the centrist candidate is filthy rich with a programme of reforms that will hurt the working poor even more right now? I not saying Macron’s reform or domestic programme is wrong, only when you enter a campaign be judicious and in tune with the electorate. Macron has entered this race distracted by international politics, on a platform handing voters to Le Pen he can I’ll afford to do?
Why call it a shock result in French election if she wins?
A MLP win would be a major Russian victory.
She's hardly not the political elite.
All the fancy Sankey diagrams are fun to look at but ultimately it comes down to who didn't vote this round, but will in the next. And for whom.
Has any turnout differential analysis popped up yet?
So far in this thread we have had posters saying - woah Macron, do you really want your supporters waving all those EU flags if you really want to win this. Posts asking “how many flipping different countries is France?” Posts mentioning rural poor hurt by fuel prices, someone asking “when is Macron actually going to start campaigning” he needs to get off phone to Putin and start campaigning if he wants to win.
I’ve been saying for weeks, has the French electorate drifted to the right? And how will the Melenchon and LR vote behave this time. We are beginning to get some answers to those questions now, and to be fair to MoonRabbit, she wasn’t too wrong in asking these questions on a betting site was she?