Bad night for Pecresse and Zemmour. It looks 60/40 to Macron in a fortnight to me.
A comfortable win for Macron in the next round. The French will always do whatever is necessary to make sure the far right never get a sniff. Some very weird predictions on here. Wish fulfillment by the Tory Brexiteers I suspect
Christ....I didn't think Le Pen had a chance, now Rog has spoken, nailed on.....
Bad night for Pecresse and Zemmour. It looks 60/40 to Macron in a fortnight to me.
A comfortable win for Macron in the next round. The French will always do whatever is necessary to make sure the far right never get a sniff. Some very weird predictions on here. Wish fulfillment by the Tory Brexiteers I suspect
Christ....I didn't think Le Pen had a chance, now Rog has spoken, nailed on.....
I use the BBC and in particular R4 as my King Midas in reverse for foreign elections, they’ve been wanking on about a Le Pen created electoral shock for weeks. My theory is that it’s to send a delicious thrill up the spines of the complacent middle classes (which includes many of themselves of course).
Do you have anything to back up your guess Mike? Melenchon supporters and leftists have been telling media for weeks and months they switch to Le Pen this time - ever since they stood together in yellow jackets vowing to stop France’s Rishi Sunak from imposing France’s “Thatcherism” throughout his second term.
I bow to everyone’s superior understanding of politics and political betting, if PB still feel this looks same as last time, with Macron still in with a chance of a second round win. To me the electorate is behaving in a completely different way.
Fillion/Pecresse 20% to 5% Le Pen + Zemmour 30% And Melenchon supporters (20% again) vowing to cast anti Macron votes.
By Tuesday evening polls can show Le Pen lead, probably all of them right through to voting day
Last time they split something like 60-25 in favour of Macron. Like last time, most Mélenchon votes today were sympathisers of other left-wing movements settling for the most electable left-wing candidate, not committed anti-system activists, which is clear from the polling dynamics of Jadot, Hidalgo, Taubira and even Roussel by the end.
There’s no point arguing about it when I have the answer handy 🙂
Fillion and Melenchon had 40% last time, it’s now 25. There’s a lot of abstentions in that 40% that was not a vote for Macron last time, and he’s now viewed different than last time, more concern on the left for Macrons Thatcherite reforms these days, less concern on the left for Le Pen being anti EU and determined to control immigration.
There is not "more concern on the left for Macrons Thatcherite reforms these days". This is how they tried to demonise him first time round - not just the left but also the trad. Gaullists - then he largely did not go through with them and reinvented himself as the Covid-protective president. Look at Chevènement as an example of this tendency coming around to Macron. The softening on Le Pen sounds like wishful thinking.
“ There is not "more concern on the left for Macrons Thatcherite reforms these days". No? You have evidence to support that rather key insight? The anecdotal and reportage stuff, from the BBC for example suggests otherwise.
Do you have anything to back up your guess Mike? Melenchon supporters and leftists have been telling media for weeks and months they switch to Le Pen this time - ever since they stood together in yellow jackets vowing to stop France’s Rishi Sunak from imposing France’s “Thatcherism” throughout his second term.
I bow to everyone’s superior understanding of politics and political betting, if PB still feel this looks same as last time, with Macron still in with a chance of a second round win. To me the electorate is behaving in a completely different way.
Fillion/Pecresse 20% to 5% Le Pen + Zemmour 30% And Melenchon supporters (20% again) vowing to cast anti Macron votes.
By Tuesday evening polls can show Le Pen lead, probably all of them right through to voting day
Last time they split something like 60-25 in favour of Macron. Like last time, most Mélenchon votes today were sympathisers of other left-wing movements settling for the most electable left-wing candidate, not committed anti-system activists, which is clear from the polling dynamics of Jadot, Hidalgo, Taubira and even Roussel by the end.
There’s no point arguing about it when I have the answer handy 🙂
Fillion and Melenchon had 40% last time, it’s now 25. There’s a lot of abstentions in that 40% that was not a vote for Macron last time, and he’s now viewed different than last time, more concern on the left for Macrons Thatcherite reforms these days, less concern on the left for Le Pen being anti EU and determined to control immigration.
There is not "more concern on the left for Macrons Thatcherite reforms these days". This is how they tried to demonise him first time round - not just the left but also the trad. Gaullists - then he largely did not go through with them and reinvented himself as the Covid-protective president. Look at Chevènement as an example of this tendency coming around to Macron. The softening on Le Pen sounds like wishful thinking.
“ There is not "more concern on the left for Macrons Thatcherite reforms these days". No? You have evidence to support that rather key insight? The anecdotal and reportage stuff, from the BBC for example suggests otherwise.
Not one word of that article was about "Macrons Thatcherite reforms", for or against. I am beginning to think you are not engaging entirely in good faith. (e.g., if you think the EU had ANYTHING to do with today's election, positive or negative, you need to review the last few weeks in the French media and opinion polls and not just vicarious campaigning for your own beliefs)
Centre-right: 20.0% to 4.7%. Centre-left: 6.4% to 1.8%.
Roger please explain.
My message has been at first glance it looks like little has changed, but look closer and the electorate are a heck of a lot more… To the right? Hating the establishment even more? Even more anti EU? Even more anti immigration? Even more unhappy in how cost of living crisis, taxation and fairness in general is being handled by Macron?
Take green as an example. Someone in a yellow jacket protesting about fuel prices and fuel tax should not necessarily be thought of as anti-green, it simply shows green agenda’s cannot be rolled out without tax fairness and social justice at the same time.
Your original prediction was that Macron didn't get into the final two. The odds were so huge and you seemed so convinced I put everything I had on it........
I'm now selling the Big Issue on Tottenham Court Road.
Do you have anything to back up your guess Mike? Melenchon supporters and leftists have been telling media for weeks and months they switch to Le Pen this time - ever since they stood together in yellow jackets vowing to stop France’s Rishi Sunak from imposing France’s “Thatcherism” throughout his second term.
I bow to everyone’s superior understanding of politics and political betting, if PB still feel this looks same as last time, with Macron still in with a chance of a second round win. To me the electorate is behaving in a completely different way.
Fillion/Pecresse 20% to 5% Le Pen + Zemmour 30% And Melenchon supporters (20% again) vowing to cast anti Macron votes.
By Tuesday evening polls can show Le Pen lead, probably all of them right through to voting day
Last time they split something like 60-25 in favour of Macron. Like last time, most Mélenchon votes today were sympathisers of other left-wing movements settling for the most electable left-wing candidate, not committed anti-system activists, which is clear from the polling dynamics of Jadot, Hidalgo, Taubira and even Roussel by the end.
There’s no point arguing about it when I have the answer handy 🙂
Fillion and Melenchon had 40% last time, it’s now 25. There’s a lot of abstentions in that 40% that was not a vote for Macron last time, and he’s now viewed different than last time, more concern on the left for Macrons Thatcherite reforms these days, less concern on the left for Le Pen being anti EU and determined to control immigration.
There is not "more concern on the left for Macrons Thatcherite reforms these days". This is how they tried to demonise him first time round - not just the left but also the trad. Gaullists - then he largely did not go through with them and reinvented himself as the Covid-protective president. Look at Chevènement as an example of this tendency coming around to Macron. The softening on Le Pen sounds like wishful thinking.
“ There is not "more concern on the left for Macrons Thatcherite reforms these days". No? You have evidence to support that rather key insight? The anecdotal and reportage stuff, from the BBC for example suggests otherwise.
Let’s wait a couple of days and see how the polls settle down 🙂
If I’m wrong I am not at all upset. And I will be very forward in admitting my analysis called it wrong.
But I still think this evening your “nothing has changed, no problem for Macron here” message is utterly wrong.
One of Le Pen's challenges will be to get people to vote for her instead of voting 'blanc'. It's possible Macron could get below 50% of the votes cast but still win.
She has a pool of about 3m people who voted 'none of the above' last time in a forced choice between Macron and Le Pen but who might be persuadable. I think someone who wasn't prepared to vote for Macron in 2017 will be less likely to do so in 2022.
Not very many places in town open for dinner tonight, but I’ve found a nice looking place next to the local campsite. I’ve had Escalivada amb Anxoves (roasted peppers and onions with anchovies) to start. That was delicious; the peppers here have so much more flavour than at home. Could have done with a couple more anchovies though.
Now waiting for my griddled sole main course.. it’s arrived and is very tasty too!
Mélenchon takes to the microphone, chanted by the crowd as a winner. Key passage, repeated three times: "we must not give a single vote to Madame Le Pen. We must not give a single vote to Madame Le Pen. We must not give a single to Madame Le Pen."
No he didn't mention Macron at all, except obliquely as one of the two evils that people will have to choose between.
For Le Pen to win she has to succeed in making it a referendum on Macron instead of a referendum on her.
As Mrs Ed astutely pointed out today, French voters vote against candidates. So, the question now is which candidate that voters actively despise the most?
The consensual view is Le Pen because she is FN. That certainly was the case last time but Macron is known this time and, as the Gillet Jaunes have shown, he has managed to p1ss off a lot of people. Given the turnout, and especially given the polls had said things were tightening, it doesn't seem like casting Le Pen as a demon is motivating voters in the same way.
Many people may not want Le Pen but I can't think of many French voters who want another 5 years of Macron.
Note that the Communists immediately endorsed Macron, which Mélenchon has not quite done. Mélenchon was at or below 10% as recently as February; half his votes are mid-campaign; he's run before, and won 20% before; in summary, Mélenchon attracts maybe most of his votes tactically from people whose alignment is otherwise strongly unfavourable to Le Pen (this should be obvious from voter behaviour in all other French elections, but I guess it's not).
Macron (EC-RE): 51% (-16) Le Pen (RN-ID): 49% (+16)
+/- vs. 2017 election
Fieldwork: 10 April 2022 (after 20:00) Sample size: 1,000
That is .. uncomfortably close
The view on here seems to be that Melenchon's voters will react like they did last time i.e. majority switch to Macron. I'm not sure that is true this time.
Bear in mind, 5 years ago, the world was a different place. In particular, there was not the standard of living crisis that there is today and which has been going on in France for several years. Le Pen has attached herself to that issue like a limpet mine. Macron, shall we say, is not exactly empathetic.
Many who voted for Melenchon are likely to be impacted by the same issue. Maybe they don't vote for Le Pen but they may decide they can't vote for Macron and abstain.
Put it another way, Le Pen effectively starts off the 2nd round with 30%+ (Le Pen + Zemmour). Macron will get the Socialist plus Green vote so that will take him to c. 35%. We do not know how much of Fillon's 2017 vote was 'cannibalised' by Macron this time round and how much went to Le Pen / Zemmour but it's hard to determine how Pecresse's vote will split. It doesn't take many of Melenchon's voters to say "f*ck it, we can't put up with this much longer" to make things very competitive.
Mélenchon takes to the microphone, chanted by the crowd as a winner. Key passage, repeated three times: "we must not give a single vote to Madame Le Pen. We must not give a single vote to Madame Le Pen. We must not give a single to Madame Le Pen."
No he didn't mention Macron at all, except obliquely as one of the two evils that people will have to choose between.
For Le Pen to win she has to succeed in making it a referendum on Macron instead of a referendum on her.
How would you propose she does that? They're buggers these voters
She needs an ad man with a foot in la France profonde but who can feel the pulse of the cosmopolitan urbanites.
Sounds like my biggest challenge to date. These voters have formed their views over years and I have to get them to rethink them in two weeks. I think you need a hypnotist.
Macron (EC-RE): 51% (-16) Le Pen (RN-ID): 49% (+16)
+/- vs. 2017 election
Fieldwork: 10 April 2022 (after 20:00) Sample size: 1,000
That is .. uncomfortably close
The view on here seems to be that Melenchon's voters will react like they did last time i.e. majority switch to Macron. I'm not sure that is true this time.
Bear in mind, 5 years ago, the world was a different place. In particular, there was not the standard of living crisis that there is today and which has been going on in France for several years. Le Pen has attached herself to that issue like a limpet mine. Macron, shall we say, is not exactly empathetic.
Many who voted for Melenchon are likely to be impacted by the same issue. Maybe they don't vote for Le Pen but they may decide they can't vote for Macron and abstain.
Put it another way, Le Pen effectively starts off the 2nd round with 30%+ (Le Pen + Zemmour). Macron will get the Socialist plus Green vote so that will take him to c. 35%. We do not know how much of Fillon's 2017 vote was 'cannibalised' by Macron this time round and how much went to Le Pen / Zemmour but it's hard to determine how Pecresse's vote will split. It doesn't take many of Melenchon's voters to say "f*ck it, we can't put up with this much longer" to make things very competitive.
It vindicates Le Pen's political strategy of tacking to the centre after the last election. She's now in a much stronger strategic position going into the last two weeks of the campaign.
And indeed necrophilia is a good Greek word for a reason
You said "As Ariadne said to the bishop".
IshmaelZ please explain?
I wish I hadn't started this now, but I think Ariadne pointed out to Theseus that the way to get out of the Cretan Labyrinth was was to lay out a THREAD on the way in and follow it back out again
Then again I've been chewing salvia divinorum on top of some Chilean merlot so what do I know?
What would have been most amazing, 20 years ago, would have been the thought that the combined vote of socialist+ Gaulist presidential candidates would be comfortably under 10%.
Yes, despite the centrist (probably) going to win, there has still been some significant movements in the last couple of cycles away from those. Particualrly for the latter, since the socialists already collapsed last time.
Do you have anything to back up your guess Mike? Melenchon supporters and leftists have been telling media for weeks and months they switch to Le Pen this time - ever since they stood together in yellow jackets vowing to stop France’s Rishi Sunak from imposing France’s “Thatcherism” throughout his second term.
I bow to everyone’s superior understanding of politics and political betting, if PB still feel this looks same as last time, with Macron still in with a chance of a second round win. To me the electorate is behaving in a completely different way.
Fillion/Pecresse 20% to 5% Le Pen + Zemmour 30% And Melenchon supporters (20% again) vowing to cast anti Macron votes.
By Tuesday evening polls can show Le Pen lead, probably all of them right through to voting day
Last time they split something like 60-25 in favour of Macron. Like last time, most Mélenchon votes today were sympathisers of other left-wing movements settling for the most electable left-wing candidate, not committed anti-system activists, which is clear from the polling dynamics of Jadot, Hidalgo, Taubira and even Roussel by the end.
There’s no point arguing about it when I have the answer handy 🙂
Fillion and Melenchon had 40% last time, it’s now 25. There’s a lot of abstentions in that 40% that was not a vote for Macron last time, and he’s now viewed different than last time, more concern on the left for Macrons Thatcherite reforms these days, less concern on the left for Le Pen being anti EU and determined to control immigration.
There is not "more concern on the left for Macrons Thatcherite reforms these days". This is how they tried to demonise him first time round - not just the left but also the trad. Gaullists - then he largely did not go through with them and reinvented himself as the Covid-protective president. Look at Chevènement as an example of this tendency coming around to Macron. The softening on Le Pen sounds like wishful thinking.
“ There is not "more concern on the left for Macrons Thatcherite reforms these days". No? You have evidence to support that rather key insight? The anecdotal and reportage stuff, from the BBC for example suggests otherwise.
Let’s wait a couple of days and see how the polls settle down 🙂
If I’m wrong I am not at all upset. And I will be very forward in admitting my analysis called it wrong.
But I still think this evening your “nothing has changed, no problem for Macron here” message is utterly wrong.
One of Le Pen's challenges will be to get people to vote for her instead of voting 'blanc'. It's possible Macron could get below 50% of the votes cast but still win.
She has a pool of about 3m people who voted 'none of the above' last time in a forced choice between Macron and Le Pen but who might be persuadable. I think someone who wasn't prepared to vote for Macron in 2017 will be less likely to do so in 2022.
The analysis in your posts on this election Will, set you apart from the herd.
I think the next thing is to look for the why. Why different this time. Switchers because of immigration? EU performance on covid and vaccines? Mscron reforms not considerate for those already suffering an unfair tax system on working poor (particularly outside the towns as in towns they may not switch on the damaging scale, it could be town v countryside not picked up in polling)
The fact that there are polls showing a statistical dead heat in itself will change the tone of the campaign compared with 2017. Macron can't afford to risk insulting people who are wavering and might consider voting for Le Pen. It makes the risk of a "basket of deplorables" style gaffe much greater.
What would have been most amazing, 20 years ago, would have been the thought that the combined vote of socialist+ Gaulist presidential candidates would be comfortably under 10%.
Yes, despite the centrist (probably) going to win, there has still been some significant movements in the last couple of cycles away from those. Particualrly for the latter, since the socialists already collapsed last time.
What people should be alarmed about is over 50% of the vote going to anti NATO candidates. Particularly in light of the resurgence in interest towards NATO across Europe, and NATO being seen as key to the security of Europe.
Macron (EC-RE): 51% (-16) Le Pen (RN-ID): 49% (+16)
+/- vs. 2017 election
Fieldwork: 10 April 2022 (after 20:00) Sample size: 1,000
That is .. uncomfortably close
The view on here seems to be that Melenchon's voters will react like they did last time i.e. majority switch to Macron. I'm not sure that is true this time.
Bear in mind, 5 years ago, the world was a different place. In particular, there was not the standard of living crisis that there is today and which has been going on in France for several years. Le Pen has attached herself to that issue like a limpet mine. Macron, shall we say, is not exactly empathetic.
Many who voted for Melenchon are likely to be impacted by the same issue. Maybe they don't vote for Le Pen but they may decide they can't vote for Macron and abstain.
Put it another way, Le Pen effectively starts off the 2nd round with 30%+ (Le Pen + Zemmour). Macron will get the Socialist plus Green vote so that will take him to c. 35%. We do not know how much of Fillon's 2017 vote was 'cannibalised' by Macron this time round and how much went to Le Pen / Zemmour but it's hard to determine how Pecresse's vote will split. It doesn't take many of Melenchon's voters to say "f*ck it, we can't put up with this much longer" to make things very competitive.
Do bear in mind that France doesn't have anything like the standard of living crisis that other countries do.
French homes are heated off electricity, and prices there increase only marginally this year. (Because France owns EDF.)
So while Brits and Germans are going to see exploding electricity, gas and petrol bills, the French only face the last of these.
Meuse is first dep to finish counting - Le Pen 35% Macron 25 Melenchon 14, 2017 Rd 1 was 32 19 15 (Fillon 18)
A simplistic reading of that is that Le Pen / Melenchon kept their core votes but that Macron benefited from the collapse of the Centre-Right. How much left is there to take?
Macron (EC-RE): 51% (-16) Le Pen (RN-ID): 49% (+16)
+/- vs. 2017 election
Fieldwork: 10 April 2022 (after 20:00) Sample size: 1,000
That is .. uncomfortably close
The view on here seems to be that Melenchon's voters will react like they did last time i.e. majority switch to Macron. I'm not sure that is true this time.
Bear in mind, 5 years ago, the world was a different place. In particular, there was not the standard of living crisis that there is today and which has been going on in France for several years. Le Pen has attached herself to that issue like a limpet mine. Macron, shall we say, is not exactly empathetic.
Many who voted for Melenchon are likely to be impacted by the same issue. Maybe they don't vote for Le Pen but they may decide they can't vote for Macron and abstain.
Put it another way, Le Pen effectively starts off the 2nd round with 30%+ (Le Pen + Zemmour). Macron will get the Socialist plus Green vote so that will take him to c. 35%. We do not know how much of Fillon's 2017 vote was 'cannibalised' by Macron this time round and how much went to Le Pen / Zemmour but it's hard to determine how Pecresse's vote will split. It doesn't take many of Melenchon's voters to say "f*ck it, we can't put up with this much longer" to make things very competitive.
Do bear in mind that France doesn't have anything like the standard of living crisis that other countries do.
French homes are heated off electricity, and prices there increase only marginally this year. (Because France owns EDF.)
So while Brits and Germans are going to see exploding electricity, gas and petrol bills, the French only face the last of these.
What matters isn't an objective comparison but voters' own perception.
Macron (EC-RE): 51% (-16) Le Pen (RN-ID): 49% (+16)
+/- vs. 2017 election
Fieldwork: 10 April 2022 (after 20:00) Sample size: 1,000
That is .. uncomfortably close
The view on here seems to be that Melenchon's voters will react like they did last time i.e. majority switch to Macron. I'm not sure that is true this time.
Bear in mind, 5 years ago, the world was a different place. In particular, there was not the standard of living crisis that there is today and which has been going on in France for several years. Le Pen has attached herself to that issue like a limpet mine. Macron, shall we say, is not exactly empathetic.
Many who voted for Melenchon are likely to be impacted by the same issue. Maybe they don't vote for Le Pen but they may decide they can't vote for Macron and abstain.
Put it another way, Le Pen effectively starts off the 2nd round with 30%+ (Le Pen + Zemmour). Macron will get the Socialist plus Green vote so that will take him to c. 35%. We do not know how much of Fillon's 2017 vote was 'cannibalised' by Macron this time round and how much went to Le Pen / Zemmour but it's hard to determine how Pecresse's vote will split. It doesn't take many of Melenchon's voters to say "f*ck it, we can't put up with this much longer" to make things very competitive.
Do bear in mind that France doesn't have anything like the standard of living crisis that other countries do.
French homes are heated off electricity, and prices there increase only marginally this year. (Because France owns EDF.)
So while Brits and Germans are going to see exploding electricity, gas and petrol bills, the French only face the last of these.
Can you imagine the effect on the French election if they were facing the UK price rises . Good move by Macron to force EDF to swallow the rise and pass on only a 4% increase .
Macron (EC-RE): 51% (-16) Le Pen (RN-ID): 49% (+16)
+/- vs. 2017 election
Fieldwork: 10 April 2022 (after 20:00) Sample size: 1,000
That is .. uncomfortably close
The view on here seems to be that Melenchon's voters will react like they did last time i.e. majority switch to Macron. I'm not sure that is true this time.
Bear in mind, 5 years ago, the world was a different place. In particular, there was not the standard of living crisis that there is today and which has been going on in France for several years. Le Pen has attached herself to that issue like a limpet mine. Macron, shall we say, is not exactly empathetic.
Many who voted for Melenchon are likely to be impacted by the same issue. Maybe they don't vote for Le Pen but they may decide they can't vote for Macron and abstain.
Put it another way, Le Pen effectively starts off the 2nd round with 30%+ (Le Pen + Zemmour). Macron will get the Socialist plus Green vote so that will take him to c. 35%. We do not know how much of Fillon's 2017 vote was 'cannibalised' by Macron this time round and how much went to Le Pen / Zemmour but it's hard to determine how Pecresse's vote will split. It doesn't take many of Melenchon's voters to say "f*ck it, we can't put up with this much longer" to make things very competitive.
It vindicates Le Pen's political strategy of tacking to the centre after the last election. She's now in a much stronger strategic position going into the last two weeks of the campaign.
Actually the starting line is closer as I had missed DuPont's endorsement of Le Pen, so she is starting off with close to 33%.
Le Pen's message is "vote for me and I will help you in the cost of living crisis." Macron's message is effectively now "I'm not Le Pen". Let's see what works.
And indeed necrophilia is a good Greek word for a reason
You said "As Ariadne said to the bishop".
IshmaelZ please explain?
Bollocks, wrong legend. I need to take a minor tour of Greek mythology to avoid confusion like that again.
I recommend “The Gods of the Greeks” by Kerenyi. But it’s the only one I’ve read, so I defer to our resident experts.
Probably v good, kerenyi rocks. Robert Graves is also very good. The problem is the sources are so widely and randomly distributed that no specialist is ever going to know the whole picture
I can’t believe that poll above suggesting 51/49. The only way that works is if Le Pen gets the lion’s share of Melanchonistes.
I make it 60/40.
Last time was 66/34.
Wishful thinking. The polls are more likely to be right. A heavy percentage of Melanchon's supporters will ignore him and vote for Le Pen.
Yeah, I don't buy that it's a plain repeat of 2017 given that the extreme right is up almost 10 points, but also think that polls are a snapshot in time and we need to see some polls in the actual election. Now it's real, maybe people will take the close opportunity to replace Macron who is still only positively supported by 25-40% of people, or they'll be scared off by Le Pen's sectarian or Russian stuff, or whatever.
I can’t believe that poll above suggesting 51/49. The only way that works is if Le Pen gets the lion’s share of Melanchonistes.
I make it 60/40.
Last time was 66/34.
Wishful thinking. The polls are more likely to be right. A heavy percentage of Melanchon's supporters will ignore him and vote for Le Pen.
I'll be surprised if there is not heavy abstentionism among his supporters(possibly more than last time even) but why would they be more inclined to actively switch switch to Le Pen instead of sitting it out?
Macron (EC-RE): 51% (-16) Le Pen (RN-ID): 49% (+16)
+/- vs. 2017 election
Fieldwork: 10 April 2022 (after 20:00) Sample size: 1,000
That is .. uncomfortably close
The view on here seems to be that Melenchon's voters will react like they did last time i.e. majority switch to Macron. I'm not sure that is true this time.
Bear in mind, 5 years ago, the world was a different place. In particular, there was not the standard of living crisis that there is today and which has been going on in France for several years. Le Pen has attached herself to that issue like a limpet mine. Macron, shall we say, is not exactly empathetic.
Many who voted for Melenchon are likely to be impacted by the same issue. Maybe they don't vote for Le Pen but they may decide they can't vote for Macron and abstain.
Put it another way, Le Pen effectively starts off the 2nd round with 30%+ (Le Pen + Zemmour). Macron will get the Socialist plus Green vote so that will take him to c. 35%. We do not know how much of Fillon's 2017 vote was 'cannibalised' by Macron this time round and how much went to Le Pen / Zemmour but it's hard to determine how Pecresse's vote will split. It doesn't take many of Melenchon's voters to say "f*ck it, we can't put up with this much longer" to make things very competitive.
Do bear in mind that France doesn't have anything like the standard of living crisis that other countries do.
French homes are heated off electricity, and prices there increase only marginally this year. (Because France owns EDF.)
So while Brits and Germans are going to see exploding electricity, gas and petrol bills, the French only face the last of these.
Can you imagine the effect on the French election if they were facing the UK price rises . Good move by Macron to force EDF to swallow the rise and pass on only a 4% increase .
It still amazes me that few people have grasped the scale of these price increases, and what it means for GE2024 in the UK.
Bad night for Pecresse and Zemmour. It looks 60/40 to Macron in a fortnight to me.
A comfortable win for Macron in the next round. The French will always do whatever is necessary to make sure the far right never get a sniff. Some very weird predictions on here. Wish fulfillment by the Tory Brexiteers I suspect
Yes, I've said throughout that Macron would win by a fair margin, and still think so.
Centre-right: 20.0% to 4.7%. Centre-left: 6.4% to 1.8%.
Roger please explain.
My message has been at first glance it looks like little has changed, but look closer and the electorate are a heck of a lot more… To the right? Hating the establishment even more? Even more anti EU? Even more anti immigration? Even more unhappy in how cost of living crisis, taxation and fairness in general is being handled by Macron?
Take green as an example. Someone in a yellow jacket protesting about fuel prices and fuel tax should not necessarily be thought of as anti-green, it simply shows green agenda’s cannot be rolled out without tax fairness and social justice at the same time.
Your original prediction was that Macron didn't get into the final two. The odds were so huge and you seemed so convinced I put everything I had on it........
I'm now selling the Big Issue on Tottenham Court Road.
(But at least it's not raining)
No Roger. My original prediction was Mélenchon makes top two - whoever however with Macron in top two beats him in round two.
My bet on Melenchon coming second was proved wrong. Yes. He got up to 20, but Zemmour iceberg melting into Le Pens slushy cocktail cost me.
A 12 for Zemmour could have been a 19 for Le Pen. Likewise a 12 from Pecresse could have been a 23% for Macron.
I called round 1 wrong and lost my bet because how the Pecresse and Zemmour fell more than I anticipated.
Macron gobbled “pecresse” votes up after first round last time, not during it. In the bigger picture He’s actually down not up, meanwhile Le Pen + Zemmour is 30%. Because the electorate has clearly moved in 5 years.
Do you have anything to back up your guess Mike? Melenchon supporters and leftists have been telling media for weeks and months they switch to Le Pen this time - ever since they stood together in yellow jackets vowing to stop France’s Rishi Sunak from imposing France’s “Thatcherism” throughout his second term.
I bow to everyone’s superior understanding of politics and political betting, if PB still feel this looks same as last time, with Macron still in with a chance of a second round win. To me the electorate is behaving in a completely different way.
Fillion/Pecresse 20% to 5% Le Pen + Zemmour 30% And Melenchon supporters (20% again) vowing to cast anti Macron votes.
By Tuesday evening polls can show Le Pen lead, probably all of them right through to voting day
Last time they split something like 60-25 in favour of Macron. Like last time, most Mélenchon votes today were sympathisers of other left-wing movements settling for the most electable left-wing candidate, not committed anti-system activists, which is clear from the polling dynamics of Jadot, Hidalgo, Taubira and even Roussel by the end.
There’s no point arguing about it when I have the answer handy 🙂
Fillion and Melenchon had 40% last time, it’s now 25. There’s a lot of abstentions in that 40% that was not a vote for Macron last time, and he’s now viewed different than last time, more concern on the left for Macrons Thatcherite reforms these days, less concern on the left for Le Pen being anti EU and determined to control immigration.
There is not "more concern on the left for Macrons Thatcherite reforms these days". This is how they tried to demonise him first time round - not just the left but also the trad. Gaullists - then he largely did not go through with them and reinvented himself as the Covid-protective president. Look at Chevènement as an example of this tendency coming around to Macron. The softening on Le Pen sounds like wishful thinking.
“ There is not "more concern on the left for Macrons Thatcherite reforms these days". No? You have evidence to support that rather key insight? The anecdotal and reportage stuff, from the BBC for example suggests otherwise.
Not one word of that article was about "Macrons Thatcherite reforms", for or against. I am beginning to think you are not engaging entirely in good faith. (e.g., if you think the EU had ANYTHING to do with today's election, positive or negative, you need to review the last few weeks in the French media and opinion polls and not just vicarious campaigning for your own beliefs)
I can’t believe that poll above suggesting 51/49. The only way that works is if Le Pen gets the lion’s share of Melanchonistes.
I make it 60/40.
Last time was 66/34.
Wishful thinking. The polls are more likely to be right. A heavy percentage of Melanchon's supporters will ignore him and vote for Le Pen.
I'll be surprised if there is not heavy abstentionism among his supporters(possibly more than last time even) but why would they be more inclined to actively switch switch to Le Pen instead of sitting it out?
Good question . It’s really a battle between social attitudes v economics. Le Pens economic programme is closer to Mélenchons, on immigration and Islam though they are on a different planet . The high abstention rate is likely to include a disproportionate section of the Muslim community who make up a large chunk of his support . That’s why if the polls remain close the fear of Le Pen will lower that abstention rate .
If the polls remain close I expect Mélenchon to come out and implore his voters to back Macron rather than just not give a vote to Le Pen .
Perhaps Melenchon could try and blackmail Macron in exchange for policy changes even although he probably doesn't have that much leverage now he's told people not to directly vote for Le Pen.
Macron (EC-RE): 51% (-16) Le Pen (RN-ID): 49% (+16)
+/- vs. 2017 election
Fieldwork: 10 April 2022 (after 20:00) Sample size: 1,000
That is .. uncomfortably close
The view on here seems to be that Melenchon's voters will react like they did last time i.e. majority switch to Macron. I'm not sure that is true this time.
Bear in mind, 5 years ago, the world was a different place. In particular, there was not the standard of living crisis that there is today and which has been going on in France for several years. Le Pen has attached herself to that issue like a limpet mine. Macron, shall we say, is not exactly empathetic.
Many who voted for Melenchon are likely to be impacted by the same issue. Maybe they don't vote for Le Pen but they may decide they can't vote for Macron and abstain.
Put it another way, Le Pen effectively starts off the 2nd round with 30%+ (Le Pen + Zemmour). Macron will get the Socialist plus Green vote so that will take him to c. 35%. We do not know how much of Fillon's 2017 vote was 'cannibalised' by Macron this time round and how much went to Le Pen / Zemmour but it's hard to determine how Pecresse's vote will split. It doesn't take many of Melenchon's voters to say "f*ck it, we can't put up with this much longer" to make things very competitive.
Do bear in mind that France doesn't have anything like the standard of living crisis that other countries do.
French homes are heated off electricity, and prices there increase only marginally this year. (Because France owns EDF.)
So while Brits and Germans are going to see exploding electricity, gas and petrol bills, the French only face the last of these.
I still stand by my prediction, what we are looking at is Macron needing the votes from an electorate who don’t really like him - or his policies, or his love for EU - in order to survive. My analysis from tonight’s votes, added to my analysis of real shifts in French electorate, is Macron loses.
Shifts in French electorate? It’s much like HY insisting if UK has a general election in June, Big Dog loses his majority and gets less votes than Labour. Why? How can views change so much in UK in two and half years, but not shift in France in five?
this central to Macrons continued miscalculation of the mood and his defeat: Someone in a yellow jacket protesting about fuel prices and fuel tax should not necessarily be thought of as anti-green, nor thought of as extreme right or hard left, it simply shows green agenda’s, or anybody’s reforms cannot be rolled out without tax fairness and social justice at the same time. There can be no reform imposed by the rich which does not protect the working poor without kickback.
And indeed necrophilia is a good Greek word for a reason
You said "As Ariadne said to the bishop".
IshmaelZ please explain?
I wish I hadn't started this now, but I think Ariadne pointed out to Theseus that the way to get out of the Cretan Labyrinth was was to lay out a THREAD on the way in and follow it back out again
Then again I've been chewing salvia divinorum on top of some Chilean merlot so what do I know?
Macron (EC-RE): 51% (-16) Le Pen (RN-ID): 49% (+16)
+/- vs. 2017 election
Fieldwork: 10 April 2022 (after 20:00) Sample size: 1,000
That is .. uncomfortably close
The view on here seems to be that Melenchon's voters will react like they did last time i.e. majority switch to Macron. I'm not sure that is true this time.
Bear in mind, 5 years ago, the world was a different place. In particular, there was not the standard of living crisis that there is today and which has been going on in France for several years. Le Pen has attached herself to that issue like a limpet mine. Macron, shall we say, is not exactly empathetic.
Many who voted for Melenchon are likely to be impacted by the same issue. Maybe they don't vote for Le Pen but they may decide they can't vote for Macron and abstain.
Put it another way, Le Pen effectively starts off the 2nd round with 30%+ (Le Pen + Zemmour). Macron will get the Socialist plus Green vote so that will take him to c. 35%. We do not know how much of Fillon's 2017 vote was 'cannibalised' by Macron this time round and how much went to Le Pen / Zemmour but it's hard to determine how Pecresse's vote will split. It doesn't take many of Melenchon's voters to say "f*ck it, we can't put up with this much longer" to make things very competitive.
Do bear in mind that France doesn't have anything like the standard of living crisis that other countries do.
French homes are heated off electricity, and prices there increase only marginally this year. (Because France owns EDF.)
So while Brits and Germans are going to see exploding electricity, gas and petrol bills, the French only face the last of these.
Macron (EC-RE): 51% (-16) Le Pen (RN-ID): 49% (+16)
+/- vs. 2017 election
Fieldwork: 10 April 2022 (after 20:00) Sample size: 1,000
That is .. uncomfortably close
The view on here seems to be that Melenchon's voters will react like they did last time i.e. majority switch to Macron. I'm not sure that is true this time.
Bear in mind, 5 years ago, the world was a different place. In particular, there was not the standard of living crisis that there is today and which has been going on in France for several years. Le Pen has attached herself to that issue like a limpet mine. Macron, shall we say, is not exactly empathetic.
Many who voted for Melenchon are likely to be impacted by the same issue. Maybe they don't vote for Le Pen but they may decide they can't vote for Macron and abstain.
Put it another way, Le Pen effectively starts off the 2nd round with 30%+ (Le Pen + Zemmour). Macron will get the Socialist plus Green vote so that will take him to c. 35%. We do not know how much of Fillon's 2017 vote was 'cannibalised' by Macron this time round and how much went to Le Pen / Zemmour but it's hard to determine how Pecresse's vote will split. It doesn't take many of Melenchon's voters to say "f*ck it, we can't put up with this much longer" to make things very competitive.
Do bear in mind that France doesn't have anything like the standard of living crisis that other countries do.
French homes are heated off electricity, and prices there increase only marginally this year. (Because France owns EDF.)
So while Brits and Germans are going to see exploding electricity, gas and petrol bills, the French only face the last of these.
French electricity bills not rising, I would suggest is more to do with French electricity largely coming form Nuclear power (and a bit of hydro) which are not affected by the surge in gas/oil/coal prices. Rather than the onership of EDF.
If EDF was dependant of power from Gas/oil/cola, it could keep prices low in theory, but a that would take a lot of cash form the government which it does not have, and would also brake EU state support rules. France might find away round the rules or just ignore them, but it would still need to find the cash, and rising taxes are not better alternative. but this is all hypothetical as EdF does not get much of its electricity form Gas/Oil/Cole.
Macron (EC-RE): 51% (-16) Le Pen (RN-ID): 49% (+16)
+/- vs. 2017 election
Fieldwork: 10 April 2022 (after 20:00) Sample size: 1,000
That is .. uncomfortably close
The view on here seems to be that Melenchon's voters will react like they did last time i.e. majority switch to Macron. I'm not sure that is true this time.
Bear in mind, 5 years ago, the world was a different place. In particular, there was not the standard of living crisis that there is today and which has been going on in France for several years. Le Pen has attached herself to that issue like a limpet mine. Macron, shall we say, is not exactly empathetic.
Many who voted for Melenchon are likely to be impacted by the same issue. Maybe they don't vote for Le Pen but they may decide they can't vote for Macron and abstain.
Put it another way, Le Pen effectively starts off the 2nd round with 30%+ (Le Pen + Zemmour). Macron will get the Socialist plus Green vote so that will take him to c. 35%. We do not know how much of Fillon's 2017 vote was 'cannibalised' by Macron this time round and how much went to Le Pen / Zemmour but it's hard to determine how Pecresse's vote will split. It doesn't take many of Melenchon's voters to say "f*ck it, we can't put up with this much longer" to make things very competitive.
Do bear in mind that France doesn't have anything like the standard of living crisis that other countries do.
French homes are heated off electricity, and prices there increase only marginally this year. (Because France owns EDF.)
So while Brits and Germans are going to see exploding electricity, gas and petrol bills, the French only face the last of these.
Indeed but as @williamglenn said, it's about perceptions.
I was in Paris this week and the price of everything has rocketed. Restaurant prices have gone through the roof - yet they are all booked out.
My feeling is that there has been a very sharpening of the divide - those with assets have done very well, those without not - and feel angry about it.
If the polls remain close I expect Mélenchon to come out and implore his voters to back Macron rather than just not give a vote to Le Pen .
Perhaps Melenchon could try and blackmail Macron in exchange for policy changes even although he probably doesn't have that much leverage now he's told people not to directly vote for Le Pen.
Mélenchon will not want his legacy to be facilitating the far right , no matter how much he dislikes Macron he detests Le Pen. I expect Macron will now tack to the left and hold out an olive branch to Mélenchons voters .
Macron (EC-RE): 51% (-16) Le Pen (RN-ID): 49% (+16)
+/- vs. 2017 election
Fieldwork: 10 April 2022 (after 20:00) Sample size: 1,000
That is .. uncomfortably close
The view on here seems to be that Melenchon's voters will react like they did last time i.e. majority switch to Macron. I'm not sure that is true this time.
Bear in mind, 5 years ago, the world was a different place. In particular, there was not the standard of living crisis that there is today and which has been going on in France for several years. Le Pen has attached herself to that issue like a limpet mine. Macron, shall we say, is not exactly empathetic.
Many who voted for Melenchon are likely to be impacted by the same issue. Maybe they don't vote for Le Pen but they may decide they can't vote for Macron and abstain.
Put it another way, Le Pen effectively starts off the 2nd round with 30%+ (Le Pen + Zemmour). Macron will get the Socialist plus Green vote so that will take him to c. 35%. We do not know how much of Fillon's 2017 vote was 'cannibalised' by Macron this time round and how much went to Le Pen / Zemmour but it's hard to determine how Pecresse's vote will split. It doesn't take many of Melenchon's voters to say "f*ck it, we can't put up with this much longer" to make things very competitive.
Do bear in mind that France doesn't have anything like the standard of living crisis that other countries do.
French homes are heated off electricity, and prices there increase only marginally this year. (Because France owns EDF.)
So while Brits and Germans are going to see exploding electricity, gas and petrol bills, the French only face the last of these.
French electricity bills not rising, I would suggest is more to do with French electricity largely coming form Nuclear power (and a bit of hydro) which are not affected by the surge in gas/oil/coal prices. Rather than the onership of EDF.
If EDF was dependant of power from Gas/oil/cola, it could keep prices low in theory, but a that would take a lot of cash form the government which it does not have, and would also brake EU state support rules. France might find away round the rules or just ignore them, but it would still need to find the cash, and rising taxes are not better alternative. but this is all hypothetical as EdF does not get much of its electricity form Gas/Oil/Cole.
They've already done that, and half the N power stations were off last week.
Macron (EC-RE): 51% (-16) Le Pen (RN-ID): 49% (+16)
+/- vs. 2017 election
Fieldwork: 10 April 2022 (after 20:00) Sample size: 1,000
That is .. uncomfortably close
The view on here seems to be that Melenchon's voters will react like they did last time i.e. majority switch to Macron. I'm not sure that is true this time.
Bear in mind, 5 years ago, the world was a different place. In particular, there was not the standard of living crisis that there is today and which has been going on in France for several years. Le Pen has attached herself to that issue like a limpet mine. Macron, shall we say, is not exactly empathetic.
Many who voted for Melenchon are likely to be impacted by the same issue. Maybe they don't vote for Le Pen but they may decide they can't vote for Macron and abstain.
Put it another way, Le Pen effectively starts off the 2nd round with 30%+ (Le Pen + Zemmour). Macron will get the Socialist plus Green vote so that will take him to c. 35%. We do not know how much of Fillon's 2017 vote was 'cannibalised' by Macron this time round and how much went to Le Pen / Zemmour but it's hard to determine how Pecresse's vote will split. It doesn't take many of Melenchon's voters to say "f*ck it, we can't put up with this much longer" to make things very competitive.
Do bear in mind that France doesn't have anything like the standard of living crisis that other countries do.
French homes are heated off electricity, and prices there increase only marginally this year. (Because France owns EDF.)
So while Brits and Germans are going to see exploding electricity, gas and petrol bills, the French only face the last of these.
Can you imagine the effect on the French election if they were facing the UK price rises . Good move by Macron to force EDF to swallow the rise and pass on only a 4% increase .
It still amazes me that few people have grasped the scale of these price increases, and what it means for GE2024 in the UK.
Do you have anything to back up your guess Mike? Melenchon supporters and leftists have been telling media for weeks and months they switch to Le Pen this time - ever since they stood together in yellow jackets vowing to stop France’s Rishi Sunak from imposing France’s “Thatcherism” throughout his second term.
I bow to everyone’s superior understanding of politics and political betting, if PB still feel this looks same as last time, with Macron still in with a chance of a second round win. To me the electorate is behaving in a completely different way.
Fillion/Pecresse 20% to 5% Le Pen + Zemmour 30% And Melenchon supporters (20% again) vowing to cast anti Macron votes.
By Tuesday evening polls can show Le Pen lead, probably all of them right through to voting day
Last time they split something like 60-25 in favour of Macron. Like last time, most Mélenchon votes today were sympathisers of other left-wing movements settling for the most electable left-wing candidate, not committed anti-system activists, which is clear from the polling dynamics of Jadot, Hidalgo, Taubira and even Roussel by the end.
There’s no point arguing about it when I have the answer handy 🙂
Fillion and Melenchon had 40% last time, it’s now 25. There’s a lot of abstentions in that 40% that was not a vote for Macron last time, and he’s now viewed different than last time, more concern on the left for Macrons Thatcherite reforms these days, less concern on the left for Le Pen being anti EU and determined to control immigration.
There is not "more concern on the left for Macrons Thatcherite reforms these days". This is how they tried to demonise him first time round - not just the left but also the trad. Gaullists - then he largely did not go through with them and reinvented himself as the Covid-protective president. Look at Chevènement as an example of this tendency coming around to Macron. The softening on Le Pen sounds like wishful thinking.
“ There is not "more concern on the left for Macrons Thatcherite reforms these days". No? You have evidence to support that rather key insight? The anecdotal and reportage stuff, from the BBC for example suggests otherwise.
Not one word of that article was about "Macrons Thatcherite reforms", for or against. I am beginning to think you are not engaging entirely in good faith. (e.g., if you think the EU had ANYTHING to do with today's election, positive or negative, you need to review the last few weeks in the French media and opinion polls and not just vicarious campaigning for your own beliefs)
Well, she is a Lib Dem…
Does EPG want it in a bar chart? 😀
What Faith am I engaging in then. So Let’s just deal in facts
I said the electorate is more hostile to macron now. I’m right. I said his policy’s build the votes against him making him more likely to lose. I’m right.
Macron (EC-RE): 51% (-16) Le Pen (RN-ID): 49% (+16)
+/- vs. 2017 election
Fieldwork: 10 April 2022 (after 20:00) Sample size: 1,000
That is .. uncomfortably close
The view on here seems to be that Melenchon's voters will react like they did last time i.e. majority switch to Macron. I'm not sure that is true this time.
Bear in mind, 5 years ago, the world was a different place. In particular, there was not the standard of living crisis that there is today and which has been going on in France for several years. Le Pen has attached herself to that issue like a limpet mine. Macron, shall we say, is not exactly empathetic.
Many who voted for Melenchon are likely to be impacted by the same issue. Maybe they don't vote for Le Pen but they may decide they can't vote for Macron and abstain.
Put it another way, Le Pen effectively starts off the 2nd round with 30%+ (Le Pen + Zemmour). Macron will get the Socialist plus Green vote so that will take him to c. 35%. We do not know how much of Fillon's 2017 vote was 'cannibalised' by Macron this time round and how much went to Le Pen / Zemmour but it's hard to determine how Pecresse's vote will split. It doesn't take many of Melenchon's voters to say "f*ck it, we can't put up with this much longer" to make things very competitive.
Do bear in mind that France doesn't have anything like the standard of living crisis that other countries do.
French homes are heated off electricity, and prices there increase only marginally this year. (Because France owns EDF.)
So while Brits and Germans are going to see exploding electricity, gas and petrol bills, the French only face the last of these.
Wood at 18% seems very high, perhaps people who have an open fire/wood burner but also have electric or gas, self identify as having there homes heated by 'wood' when in reality its a combination. Or maybe there are just a lot of old French homes still heated by wood?
If the polls remain close I expect Mélenchon to come out and implore his voters to back Macron rather than just not give a vote to Le Pen .
Perhaps Melenchon could try and blackmail Macron in exchange for policy changes even although he probably doesn't have that much leverage now he's told people not to directly vote for Le Pen.
Mélenchon will not want his legacy to be facilitating the far right , no matter how much he dislikes Macron he detests Le Pen. I expect Macron will now tack to the left and hold out an olive branch to Mélenchons voters .
“ I expect Macron will now tack to the left and hold out an olive branch to Mélenchons voters “ can you name those policy concessions?
Mélenchon takes to the microphone, chanted by the crowd as a winner. Key passage, repeated three times: "we must not give a single vote to Madame Le Pen. We must not give a single vote to Madame Le Pen. We must not give a single to Madame Le Pen."
No he didn't mention Macron at all, except obliquely as one of the two evils that people will have to choose between.
For Le Pen to win she has to succeed in making it a referendum on Macron instead of a referendum on her.
As Mrs Ed astutely pointed out today, French voters vote against candidates. So, the question now is which candidate that voters actively despise the most?
The consensual view is Le Pen because she is FN. That certainly was the case last time but Macron is known this time and, as the Gillet Jaunes have shown, he has managed to p1ss off a lot of people. Given the turnout, and especially given the polls had said things were tightening, it doesn't seem like casting Le Pen as a demon is motivating voters in the same way.
Many people may not want Le Pen but I can't think of many French voters who want another 5 years of Macron.
Yes, Le Pen’s job in the next fortnight is to ensure the second round is seen as a referendum on Macron.
Comments
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61049717
Let’s wait a couple of days and see how the polls settle down 🙂
If I’m wrong I am not at all upset. And I will be very forward in admitting my analysis called it wrong.
But I still think this evening your “nothing has changed, no problem for Macron here” message is utterly wrong.
Presidential run-off election
Macron (EC-RE): 51% (-16)
Le Pen (RN-ID): 49% (+16)
+/- vs. 2017 election
Fieldwork: 10 April 2022 (after 20:00)
Sample size: 1,000
I'm now selling the Big Issue on Tottenham Court Road.
(But at least it's not raining)
She has a pool of about 3m people who voted 'none of the above' last time in a forced choice between Macron and Le Pen but who might be persuadable. I think someone who wasn't prepared to vote for Macron in 2017 will be less likely to do so in 2022.
Now waiting for my griddled sole main course.. it’s arrived and is very tasty too!
The consensual view is Le Pen because she is FN. That certainly was the case last time but Macron is known this time and, as the Gillet Jaunes have shown, he has managed to p1ss off a lot of people. Given the turnout, and especially given the polls had said things were tightening, it doesn't seem like casting Le Pen as a demon is motivating voters in the same way.
Many people may not want Le Pen but I can't think of many French voters who want another 5 years of Macron.
IshmaelZ please explain?
I could fill a gallery with those.
Macron: 55
Le Pen: 45
Bear in mind, 5 years ago, the world was a different place. In particular, there was not the standard of living crisis that there is today and which has been going on in France for several years. Le Pen has attached herself to that issue like a limpet mine. Macron, shall we say, is not exactly empathetic.
Many who voted for Melenchon are likely to be impacted by the same issue. Maybe they don't vote for Le Pen but they may decide they can't vote for Macron and abstain.
Put it another way, Le Pen effectively starts off the 2nd round with 30%+ (Le Pen + Zemmour). Macron will get the Socialist plus Green vote so that will take him to c. 35%. We do not know how much of Fillon's 2017 vote was 'cannibalised' by Macron this time round and how much went to Le Pen / Zemmour but it's hard to determine how Pecresse's vote will split. It doesn't take many of Melenchon's voters to say "f*ck it, we can't put up with this much longer" to make things very competitive.
Then again I've been chewing salvia divinorum on top of some Chilean merlot so what do I know?
In spinning my web, I lost the thread of the conversation.
Since it was about bishops, I mitre guessed that would happen,..
I'm sure I heard at least 2 in their speeches, including I think Zemmour (sp?)
I think the next thing is to look for the why. Why different this time. Switchers because of immigration? EU performance on covid and vaccines? Mscron reforms not considerate for those already suffering an unfair tax system on working poor (particularly outside the towns as in towns they may not switch on the damaging scale, it could be town v countryside not picked up in polling)
I make it 60/40.
Last time was 66/34.
Pécresse , Hidalgo , Jadot , Roussel have backed Macron . Le Pen has Zemmour and DuPont.
To do this its best to 'Love bomb' their supporters.
Macron is now Love bombing' their supporters.
By not getting too involved in R1 campaigning including not getting involved in the TV debate, its probably going to be more effective.
@EuropeElects
France, Ifop-Fiducial poll for LCI & TF1:
Presidential run-off election
Macron (EC-RE): 51% (-16)
Le Pen (RN-ID): 49% (+16)
+/- vs. 2017 election
Fieldwork: 10 April 2022 (after 20:00)
Sample size: 1,000"
French homes are heated off electricity, and prices there increase only marginally this year. (Because France owns EDF.)
So while Brits and Germans are going to see exploding electricity, gas and petrol bills, the French only face the last of these.
🗳️ Evolution de l'espace politique
🔴Mélenchon 2017 : 19,6%
🔴Mélenchon+Roussel 2022 : 23%
🟣Hamon 2017 : 6,4%
🟢🟣Jadot+Hidalgo 2022 : 6%
🟠Macron 2017 : 24%
🟠Macron 2022 : 28%
🔵Fillon 2017 : 20%
🔵Pécresse 2022 : 5%
⚫️Le Pen 2017 : 21,3%
⚫️🟤Le Pen+Zemmour 2022 : 30%
https://twitter.com/mathieugallard/status/1513233995420643330?cxt=HHwWhMC98aSTi4AqAAAA
Le Pen's message is "vote for me and I will help you in the cost of living crisis." Macron's message is effectively now "I'm not Le Pen". Let's see what works.
Cosy length and a quarter.
Is minor county west the cricket team you support? They play a proper championship winning county side when the season starts next week 😎
My bet on Melenchon coming second was proved wrong. Yes. He got up to 20, but Zemmour iceberg melting into Le Pens slushy cocktail cost me.
A 12 for Zemmour could have been a 19 for Le Pen. Likewise a 12 from Pecresse could have been a 23% for Macron.
I called round 1 wrong and lost my bet because how the Pecresse and Zemmour fell more than I anticipated.
Macron gobbled “pecresse” votes up after first round last time, not during it. In the bigger picture He’s actually down not up, meanwhile Le Pen + Zemmour is 30%. Because the electorate has clearly moved in 5 years.
You admit it’s a different electorate this time?
Shifts in French electorate? It’s much like HY insisting if UK has a general election in June, Big Dog loses his majority and gets less votes than Labour. Why? How can views change so much in UK in two and half years, but not shift in France in five?
this central to Macrons continued miscalculation of the mood and his defeat: Someone in a yellow jacket protesting about fuel prices and fuel tax should not necessarily be thought of as anti-green, nor thought of as extreme right or hard left, it simply shows green agenda’s, or anybody’s reforms cannot be rolled out without tax fairness and social justice at the same time. There can be no reform imposed by the rich which does not protect the working poor without kickback.
2018 numbers: Elec 41%, Gas 35%, Wood 18%, Oil 10%, Heat Pump 7%
The scary one is the high % of direct electric heating, though I expect some category errors between that and Elec Heat Pumps.
(Update: Heat pumps reported at 9% in 2020)
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1086485/types-heater-housing-main-france/
If EDF was dependant of power from Gas/oil/cola, it could keep prices low in theory, but a that would take a lot of cash form the government which it does not have, and would also brake EU state support rules. France might find away round the rules or just ignore them, but it would still need to find the cash, and rising taxes are not better alternative. but this is all hypothetical as EdF does not get much of its electricity form Gas/Oil/Cole.
IMO 55/58% to 42/45% is more likely.
I was in Paris this week and the price of everything has rocketed. Restaurant prices have gone through the roof - yet they are all booked out.
My feeling is that there has been a very sharpening of the divide - those with assets have done very well, those without not - and feel angry about it.
@jfelixcardoso
New IPSOS update (22:30), now:
Macron 27,6
Le Pen 23
Mélenchon 22,2"
Post 1st round every single poll over estimated Le Pen and under estimated Macron. By a lot.
59/41 was a not untypical poll in 2017. For an end result of 66/34
What Faith am I engaging in then. So Let’s just deal in facts
I said the electorate is more hostile to macron now. I’m right.
I said his policy’s build the votes against him making him more likely to lose. I’m right.
Those are facts not speculation arn’t they?