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Macron edges up in the betting – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited April 2022 in General
imageMacron edges up in the betting – politicalbetting.com

%Emmanuel MACRON28,1Marine LE PEN23,3Jean-Luc MELENCHON20,1Eric ZEMMOUR7,2Valérie PECRESSE5,0Yannick JADOT4,4Jean LASSALLE3,3Fabien ROUSSEL2,7Nicolas DUPONT-AIGNAN2,3Anne HIDALGO2,1Nathalie ARTHAUD0,8Philippe POUTOU0,7

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Comments

  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,227
    première
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,957
    edited April 2022
    Il n'est pas.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,152
    Very comfortable for Macron next week
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    Yet another header that fails to condemn Stalin
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,273
    Jamais de doute
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,957

    Very comfortable for Macron next week

    BOOOOOOOOOOOOOR-ing.....
  • *Legendary modesty klaxon*

    Betting advice, lay Marine Le Pen like I would lay Marion Maréchal-Le Pen.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited April 2022
    Good projection for Macron and Le Pen. Macron up 4% on what he got in the 2017 first round and Le Pen up 2 or 3% on what she got in the first round last time.

    Reasonably good result for Melenchon too who is projected to be up slightly too on what he got last time and his supporters will likely now determine who wins the Presidency in the runoff. Macron will need a majority of them to turn out and vote for him in the runoff despite their dislike of his economic policies because they dislike Le Pen's social policies.

    Terrible projection for Pecresse, down 15% on what Fillon got in 2017 when he was Les Republicains candidate. Poor result for Hidalgo too who is also down 4% on what the Socialist party's 2017 candidate Hamon got.

    OK result for Zemmour in that he beat Pecresse but he would have hoped for a higher voteshare. Most of his supporters will now probably switch to Le Pen in the runoff
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    Andrew Neil
    @afneil
    ·
    14m
    French Communist party calls on voters to switch to Macron in round 2. Not all will by any means. Not many Communist voters these days anyway. Green leader also endorses Macron. He has more votes at 4%.
  • Farooq said:

    Yet another header that fails to condemn Stalin

    I plan to condemn Stalin next weekend.

    I'm toying with calling the piece 'The Death of Stalinism'
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786
    edited April 2022
    Melenchon is now attacking the voting system for making people choose the lesser of two evils.

    He doesn't directly call on people not to vote for Le Pen.

    Edit: Now is is saying "don't give Le Pen a single vote".
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    Do you have anything to back up your guess Mike? Melenchon supporters and leftists have been telling media for weeks and months they switch to Le Pen this time - ever since they stood together in yellow jackets vowing to stop France’s Rishi Sunak from imposing France’s “Thatcherism” throughout his second term.

    I bow to everyone’s superior understanding of politics and political betting, if PB still feel this looks same as last time, with Macron still in with a chance of a second round win. To me the electorate is behaving in a completely different way.

    Fillion/Pecresse 20% to 5%
    Le Pen + Zemmour 30%
    And Melenchon supporters (20% again) vowing to cast anti Macron votes.

    By Tuesday evening polls can show Le Pen lead, probably all of them right through to voting day
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Nous sommes tous Macron.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,008

    *Legendary modesty klaxon*

    Betting advice, lay Marine Le Pen like I would lay Marion Maréchal-Le Pen.

    I hope you have an expansive definition of safe sex.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038

    Ben Page
    @benatipsos
    ·
    2m
    Latest revised estimates Emmanuel MACRON
    28,5
    Marine LE PEN
    23,6
    Jean-Luc MELENCHON
    20,3
    Eric ZEMMOUR
    7,0
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,052
    Bad night for Pecresse and Zemmour. It looks 60/40 to Macron in a fortnight to me.
  • *Legendary modesty klaxon*

    Betting advice, lay Marine Le Pen like I would lay Marion Maréchal-Le Pen.

    I hope you have an expansive definition of safe sex.
    Padded headboard.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
    edited April 2022
    Anyone else think it might be Le Pen vs Melenchon in 2027 ?

    Pecresse's performance was woeful - and En Marche seems like such a personal vehicle for Macron in presidential terms.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,005
    Apparently the Portuguese communists are behind Putin.

    That's an okay result for Macron I suppose.

    I'm not that sure about him but Le Pen has to lose. I cannot contemplate a politician so enamoured with Vladimir Putin. It shows either a total lack of judgment or something even more sinister. Consider what he did in the Donbass. What he did in Syria. His murderous rule at home destroying any opposition. The absence of the rule of law. The state controlled media telling poisonous lies and stirring up paranoia and hatred on a daily basis. That didn't start on 22 February even if it has got even worse since then. It has been clear for nearly twenty years. And she had a picture of him on her campaign literature. Intolerable.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Pulpstar said:

    Anyone else think it might be Le Pen vs Melenchon in 2027 ?

    Macron definitely has a problem. Who comes next?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,052
    Pulpstar said:

    Anyone else think it might be Le Pen vs Melenchon in 2027 ?

    No, at least not this Le Pen, and Melenchon will be 75.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,279
    Foxy said:

    Bad night for Pecresse and Zemmour. It looks 60/40 to Macron in a fortnight to me.

    I'm waiting for the next batch of second round polls before making any predictions.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,042

    *Legendary modesty klaxon*

    Betting advice, lay Marine Le Pen like I would lay Marion Maréchal-Le Pen.

    Cautiously and whilst wearing an appropriate prophylactic?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,910
    Ah, good! The thread's finally working!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,052
    Jonathan said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Anyone else think it might be Le Pen vs Melenchon in 2027 ?

    Macron definitely has a problem. Who comes next?
    5 years is a long time. The worst of the post covid inflation will be over well before the next election, and Macron is still a young man.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,459
    I'm reassured. Looking through the results, including the very minor parties, I just can't see enough switching to Le Pen in a fortnight, even if there's a lot of abstentions. Even a really pessimistic, worst-scene scenario bit of maths doesn't get Le Pen past 48%.

    (I now expect to be proved wrong on 24/4).
  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,183
    What would have been most amazing, 20 years ago, would have been the thought that the combined vote of socialist+ Gaulist presidential candidates would be comfortably under 10%.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,392
    For fans of one of the losing candidates...

    Oh Zemmour
    Broke my heart
    Now I'm aching for you
    Mon Zemmour
    What's a boy in love
    Supposed to do
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Anyone else think it might be Le Pen vs Melenchon in 2027 ?

    Macron definitely has a problem. Who comes next?
    5 years is a long time. The worst of the post covid inflation will be over well before the next election, and Macron is still a young man.
    He's limited by the constitution to two terms.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,273
    FPT

    kjh said:



    Nobody should admire Franco for any reason. Of course HYUFD talks again of stuff he didn't live thru' (unlike many of us who were around when he was in power and visited Spain), although a quick look at Wikipedia answers the question as to whether he should be admired for anything.

    I know nothing about Franco except a vague sense that he was not a good guy based on the fact he was close to Mussolini and Peron. Is that unfair, or can I stick him on my list of shit I don’t to know about?
    Franco was a butcher who overthrew a democratic government and slaughtered his opponents wholesale. One can make two mitigating claims for him. He stayed out of WW2, to the disappointment of Hitler, which enabled us to maintain Gibaltar. And in his later years, he largely stopped murdering people and it became possible to expressed mild dissent at an individual level without getting arrested.

    All things are relative. He was arguably marginally less bad than Mussolini, and certainly less bad than Hitler.
    I was pondering the relative evil/nastiness of various dictators and tyrants the other day. Impossible to do objectively of course but my list of a few notables, with the vilest at the top, would be:

    Hitler (of course)
    Mao
    Stalin
    Pol Pot
    Putin (new entry)
    Mussolini
    Franco
    Kim Il-sung
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,910

    *Legendary modesty klaxon*

    Betting advice, lay Marine Le Pen like I would lay Marion Maréchal-Le Pen.

    I hope you have an expansive definition of safe sex.
    Only Tories use condoms, baby! Those filthy beggars, they go from conference to conference!
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,608

    Do you have anything to back up your guess Mike? Melenchon supporters and leftists have been telling media for weeks and months they switch to Le Pen this time - ever since they stood together in yellow jackets vowing to stop France’s Rishi Sunak from imposing France’s “Thatcherism” throughout his second term.

    I bow to everyone’s superior understanding of politics and political betting, if PB still feel this looks same as last time, with Macron still in with a chance of a second round win. To me the electorate is behaving in a completely different way.

    Fillion/Pecresse 20% to 5%
    Le Pen + Zemmour 30%
    And Melenchon supporters (20% again) vowing to cast anti Macron votes.

    By Tuesday evening polls can show Le Pen lead, probably all of them right through to voting day

    £10 bet that there are no polls showing a Le Pen lead from the restart of polling, until the actual election.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,085
    Pulpstar said:

    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Anyone else think it might be Le Pen vs Melenchon in 2027 ?

    Macron definitely has a problem. Who comes next?
    5 years is a long time. The worst of the post covid inflation will be over well before the next election, and Macron is still a young man.
    He's limited by the constitution to two terms.
    In which case, does En Marche disappear with its creator?

    Does someone come up with an alternative that is sufficiently different to be worth voting for without being batso?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,910

    FPT

    kjh said:



    Nobody should admire Franco for any reason. Of course HYUFD talks again of stuff he didn't live thru' (unlike many of us who were around when he was in power and visited Spain), although a quick look at Wikipedia answers the question as to whether he should be admired for anything.

    I know nothing about Franco except a vague sense that he was not a good guy based on the fact he was close to Mussolini and Peron. Is that unfair, or can I stick him on my list of shit I don’t to know about?
    Franco was a butcher who overthrew a democratic government and slaughtered his opponents wholesale. One can make two mitigating claims for him. He stayed out of WW2, to the disappointment of Hitler, which enabled us to maintain Gibaltar. And in his later years, he largely stopped murdering people and it became possible to expressed mild dissent at an individual level without getting arrested.

    All things are relative. He was arguably marginally less bad than Mussolini, and certainly less bad than Hitler.
    I was pondering the relative evil/nastiness of various dictators and tyrants the other day. Impossible to do objectively of course but my list of a few notables, with the vilest at the top, would be:

    Hitler (of course)
    Mao
    Stalin
    Pol Pot
    Putin (new entry)
    Mussolini
    Franco
    Kim Il-sung
    Hirohito's Japan.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775

    *Legendary modesty klaxon*

    Betting advice, lay Marine Le Pen like I would lay Marion Maréchal-Le Pen.

    I hope you have an expansive definition of safe sex.
    Padded headboard.
    Sex in bed? How vanilla.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,748
    edited April 2022
    So all that spunking over the youngsters* rallying for/to Le Pen was just that.

    *metaphorically
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    FPT

    kjh said:



    Nobody should admire Franco for any reason. Of course HYUFD talks again of stuff he didn't live thru' (unlike many of us who were around when he was in power and visited Spain), although a quick look at Wikipedia answers the question as to whether he should be admired for anything.

    I know nothing about Franco except a vague sense that he was not a good guy based on the fact he was close to Mussolini and Peron. Is that unfair, or can I stick him on my list of shit I don’t to know about?
    Franco was a butcher who overthrew a democratic government and slaughtered his opponents wholesale. One can make two mitigating claims for him. He stayed out of WW2, to the disappointment of Hitler, which enabled us to maintain Gibaltar. And in his later years, he largely stopped murdering people and it became possible to expressed mild dissent at an individual level without getting arrested.

    All things are relative. He was arguably marginally less bad than Mussolini, and certainly less bad than Hitler.
    I was pondering the relative evil/nastiness of various dictators and tyrants the other day. Impossible to do objectively of course but my list of a few notables, with the vilest at the top, would be:

    Hitler (of course)
    Mao
    Stalin
    Pol Pot
    Putin (new entry)
    Mussolini
    Franco
    Kim Il-sung
    Not sure I go with that. Hitler was a corporate kinda guy, they had a whole conference about the way forward. In Wannsee. Mussolini was a nice bloke who at least initially tried to throttle back the whole anti jewish thang. Kim is just a loser, not even any good at being bad.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,748

    *Legendary modesty klaxon*

    Betting advice, lay Marine Le Pen like I would lay Marion Maréchal-Le Pen.

    I hope you have an expansive definition of safe sex.
    Padded headboard.
    Padded keyboard?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,279
    edited April 2022
    Thanks. It's frustrating that nowhere seems to have a running totals for the candidates in terms of actual votes, not percentages.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,608

    FPT

    kjh said:



    Nobody should admire Franco for any reason. Of course HYUFD talks again of stuff he didn't live thru' (unlike many of us who were around when he was in power and visited Spain), although a quick look at Wikipedia answers the question as to whether he should be admired for anything.

    I know nothing about Franco except a vague sense that he was not a good guy based on the fact he was close to Mussolini and Peron. Is that unfair, or can I stick him on my list of shit I don’t to know about?
    Franco was a butcher who overthrew a democratic government and slaughtered his opponents wholesale. One can make two mitigating claims for him. He stayed out of WW2, to the disappointment of Hitler, which enabled us to maintain Gibaltar. And in his later years, he largely stopped murdering people and it became possible to expressed mild dissent at an individual level without getting arrested.

    All things are relative. He was arguably marginally less bad than Mussolini, and certainly less bad than Hitler.
    I was pondering the relative evil/nastiness of various dictators and tyrants the other day. Impossible to do objectively of course but my list of a few notables, with the vilest at the top, would be:

    Hitler (of course)
    Mao
    Stalin
    Pol Pot
    Putin (new entry)
    Mussolini
    Franco
    Kim Il-sung
    Pol Pot was madder and more murderous than Stalin - he was in a smaller country, so less people to murder.

    Putin vs Mussolini - hmmm. Mussolini was generally not especially murderous of opponents* - the murder of one opposition MP nearly brought him down (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giacomo_Matteotti). Abyssinia vs Chechnya and Ukraine.... hmmmmm

    *In his first incarnation. The Salo Republic was a deeply vile Nazi state, though.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,052
    #Melenchon:
    You must not give one vote to #LePen!"

    He's not in the second tour...but gained 20% of the vote.

    #presidentielles2022

    https://t.co/IpqRvVEnBT
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Ah, good! The thread's finally working!

    As Ariadne said to the bishop
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,085
    Is this going to be sufficient?

    Mélenchon takes to the microphone, chanted by the crowd as a winner. Key passage, repeated three times: "we must not give a single vote to Madame Le Pen. We must not give a single vote to Madame Le Pen. We must not give a single to Madame Le Pen."

    https://twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1513227666391982082?t=YEb79U6V8LkfrOSUaDVz2Q&s=19
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    So all that spunking over the youngsters* rallying for/to Le Pen was just that.

    *metaphorically

    *speak for yourself
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    So all that spunking over the youngsters* rallying for/to Le Pen was just that.

    *metaphorically

    Under 30s likely still voted more for Melenchon and Le Pen than Macron, it was older voters who put him first
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    *Legendary modesty klaxon*

    Betting advice, lay Marine Le Pen like I would lay Marion Maréchal-Le Pen.

    And that’s about as serious analysis you will get on this from the resident Dee dah 🙄
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,042

    *Legendary modesty klaxon*

    Betting advice, lay Marine Le Pen like I would lay Marion Maréchal-Le Pen.

    I hope you have an expansive definition of safe sex.
    Padded headboard.
    Padded keyboard?
    Different strokes...
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 5,997

    Farooq said:

    Yet another header that fails to condemn Stalin

    I plan to condemn Stalin next weekend.

    I'm toying with calling the piece 'The Death of Stalinism'
    Yet Putin is carrying out in Ukraine Stalin's exact strategy for Poland. It's as if he had dug out the KGB manual on destroying a country's independent existence. I'm wondering who his Valery Blokhin is.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,273
    IshmaelZ said:

    FPT

    kjh said:



    Nobody should admire Franco for any reason. Of course HYUFD talks again of stuff he didn't live thru' (unlike many of us who were around when he was in power and visited Spain), although a quick look at Wikipedia answers the question as to whether he should be admired for anything.

    I know nothing about Franco except a vague sense that he was not a good guy based on the fact he was close to Mussolini and Peron. Is that unfair, or can I stick him on my list of shit I don’t to know about?
    Franco was a butcher who overthrew a democratic government and slaughtered his opponents wholesale. One can make two mitigating claims for him. He stayed out of WW2, to the disappointment of Hitler, which enabled us to maintain Gibaltar. And in his later years, he largely stopped murdering people and it became possible to expressed mild dissent at an individual level without getting arrested.

    All things are relative. He was arguably marginally less bad than Mussolini, and certainly less bad than Hitler.
    I was pondering the relative evil/nastiness of various dictators and tyrants the other day. Impossible to do objectively of course but my list of a few notables, with the vilest at the top, would be:

    Hitler (of course)
    Mao
    Stalin
    Pol Pot
    Putin (new entry)
    Mussolini
    Franco
    Kim Il-sung
    Not sure I go with that. Hitler was a corporate kinda guy, they had a whole conference about the way forward. In Wannsee. Mussolini was a nice bloke who at least initially tried to throttle back the whole anti jewish thang. Kim is just a loser, not even any good at being bad.
    Lol "Hitler was a corporate kinda guy" - that's alright then.

    Six million Jews but it was a corporate decision, what's a Führer to do, eh?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    Pulpstar said:

    Anyone else think it might be Le Pen vs Melenchon in 2027 ?

    Pecresse's performance was woeful - and En Marche seems like such a personal vehicle for Macron in presidential terms.

    No, the centre right will likely put up a better candidate next time like Xavier Bertrand who after 15 years of the centre right out of the Elysee will have a chance to win.

    Assuming Macron is re elected he will have been President for 10 years in 2027 and unlikely to run again
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786
    Zemmour endorses Le Pen.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775

    *Legendary modesty klaxon*

    Betting advice, lay Marine Le Pen like I would lay Marion Maréchal-Le Pen.

    And that’s about as serious analysis you will get on this from the resident Dee dah 🙄
    I enjoyed your indepth discussions about what's going to happen...
    but I prefer TSE's because he was right
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,164

    Is this going to be sufficient?

    Mélenchon takes to the microphone, chanted by the crowd as a winner. Key passage, repeated three times: "we must not give a single vote to Madame Le Pen. We must not give a single vote to Madame Le Pen. We must not give a single to Madame Le Pen."

    https://twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1513227666391982082?t=YEb79U6V8LkfrOSUaDVz2Q&s=19

    Not actually endorsing Macron?
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 5,997

    Farooq said:

    Yet another header that fails to condemn Stalin

    I plan to condemn Stalin next weekend.

    I'm toying with calling the piece 'The Death of Stalinism'
    Yet Putin is carrying out in Ukraine Stalin's exact strategy for Poland. It's as if he had dug out the KGB manual on destroying a country's independent existence. I'm wondering who his Valery Blokhin is.
    Oops... Vasily Blokhin.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,910
    IshmaelZ said:

    Ah, good! The thread's finally working!

    As Ariadne said to the bishop
    Is that an Inception reference?
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,996

    Do you have anything to back up your guess Mike? Melenchon supporters and leftists have been telling media for weeks and months they switch to Le Pen this time - ever since they stood together in yellow jackets vowing to stop France’s Rishi Sunak from imposing France’s “Thatcherism” throughout his second term.

    I bow to everyone’s superior understanding of politics and political betting, if PB still feel this looks same as last time, with Macron still in with a chance of a second round win. To me the electorate is behaving in a completely different way.

    Fillion/Pecresse 20% to 5%
    Le Pen + Zemmour 30%
    And Melenchon supporters (20% again) vowing to cast anti Macron votes.

    By Tuesday evening polls can show Le Pen lead, probably all of them right through to voting day

    Last time they split something like 60-25 in favour of Macron. Like last time, most Mélenchon votes today were sympathisers of other left-wing movements settling for the most electable left-wing candidate, not committed anti-system activists, which is clear from the polling dynamics of Jadot, Hidalgo, Taubira and even Roussel by the end.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    I'm reassured. Looking through the results, including the very minor parties, I just can't see enough switching to Le Pen in a fortnight, even if there's a lot of abstentions. Even a really pessimistic, worst-scene scenario bit of maths doesn't get Le Pen past 48%.

    (I now expect to be proved wrong on 24/4).

    If most Melenchon voters stay home though and she gets a few to back it could still be close, assuming nearly all Zemmour and Dupont Aignan voters back her and if she gets some Pecresse voters to back her as well
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,273

    *Legendary modesty klaxon*

    Betting advice, lay Marine Le Pen like I would lay Marion Maréchal-Le Pen.

    And that’s about as serious analysis you will get on this from the resident Dee dah 🙄
    Confess, I've just had to google Dee dah. Never knew that.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786
    edited April 2022
    tlg86 said:

    Is this going to be sufficient?

    Mélenchon takes to the microphone, chanted by the crowd as a winner. Key passage, repeated three times: "we must not give a single vote to Madame Le Pen. We must not give a single vote to Madame Le Pen. We must not give a single to Madame Le Pen."

    https://twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1513227666391982082?t=YEb79U6V8LkfrOSUaDVz2Q&s=19

    Not actually endorsing Macron?
    No he didn't mention Macron at all, except obliquely as one of the two evils that people will have to choose between.

    For Le Pen to win she has to succeed in making it a referendum on Macron instead of a referendum on her.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,279

    Is this going to be sufficient?

    Mélenchon takes to the microphone, chanted by the crowd as a winner. Key passage, repeated three times: "we must not give a single vote to Madame Le Pen. We must not give a single vote to Madame Le Pen. We must not give a single to Madame Le Pen."

    https://twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1513227666391982082?t=YEb79U6V8LkfrOSUaDVz2Q&s=19

    Probably at least 50% of his voters will ignore him, (of those who do vote as opposed to abstaining).
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,926

    FPT

    kjh said:



    Nobody should admire Franco for any reason. Of course HYUFD talks again of stuff he didn't live thru' (unlike many of us who were around when he was in power and visited Spain), although a quick look at Wikipedia answers the question as to whether he should be admired for anything.

    I know nothing about Franco except a vague sense that he was not a good guy based on the fact he was close to Mussolini and Peron. Is that unfair, or can I stick him on my list of shit I don’t to know about?
    Franco was a butcher who overthrew a democratic government and slaughtered his opponents wholesale. One can make two mitigating claims for him. He stayed out of WW2, to the disappointment of Hitler, which enabled us to maintain Gibaltar. And in his later years, he largely stopped murdering people and it became possible to expressed mild dissent at an individual level without getting arrested.

    All things are relative. He was arguably marginally less bad than Mussolini, and certainly less bad than Hitler.
    I was pondering the relative evil/nastiness of various dictators and tyrants the other day. Impossible to do objectively of course but my list of a few notables, with the vilest at the top, would be:

    Hitler (of course)
    Mao
    Stalin
    Pol Pot
    Putin (new entry)
    Mussolini
    Franco
    Kim Il-sung
    Pol Pot was madder and more murderous than Stalin - he was in a smaller country, so less people to murder.

    Putin vs Mussolini - hmmm. Mussolini was generally not especially murderous of opponents* - the murder of one opposition MP nearly brought him down (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giacomo_Matteotti). Abyssinia vs Chechnya and Ukraine.... hmmmmm

    *In his first incarnation. The Salo Republic was a deeply vile Nazi state, though.
    As an aside, tonight's Antiques Roadshow featured a woman who'd been an "abandoned" child in Mao's Great Leap Forward.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 3,769

    IshmaelZ said:

    FPT

    kjh said:



    Nobody should admire Franco for any reason. Of course HYUFD talks again of stuff he didn't live thru' (unlike many of us who were around when he was in power and visited Spain), although a quick look at Wikipedia answers the question as to whether he should be admired for anything.

    I know nothing about Franco except a vague sense that he was not a good guy based on the fact he was close to Mussolini and Peron. Is that unfair, or can I stick him on my list of shit I don’t to know about?
    Franco was a butcher who overthrew a democratic government and slaughtered his opponents wholesale. One can make two mitigating claims for him. He stayed out of WW2, to the disappointment of Hitler, which enabled us to maintain Gibaltar. And in his later years, he largely stopped murdering people and it became possible to expressed mild dissent at an individual level without getting arrested.

    All things are relative. He was arguably marginally less bad than Mussolini, and certainly less bad than Hitler.
    I was pondering the relative evil/nastiness of various dictators and tyrants the other day. Impossible to do objectively of course but my list of a few notables, with the vilest at the top, would be:

    Hitler (of course)
    Mao
    Stalin
    Pol Pot
    Putin (new entry)
    Mussolini
    Franco
    Kim Il-sung
    Not sure I go with that. Hitler was a corporate kinda guy, they had a whole conference about the way forward. In Wannsee. Mussolini was a nice bloke who at least initially tried to throttle back the whole anti jewish thang. Kim is just a loser, not even any good at being bad.
    Lol "Hitler was a corporate kinda guy" - that's alright then.

    Six million Jews but it was a corporate decision, what's a Führer to do, eh?
    I think that might have gone “whoosh” over your head on the piss-take front.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,748

    Zemmour endorses Le Pen.

    Tried to find a pic of Macron giving a chef’s kiss..
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489
    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Anyone else think it might be Le Pen vs Melenchon in 2027 ?

    Macron definitely has a problem. Who comes next?
    5 years is a long time. The worst of the post covid inflation will be over well before the next election, and Macron is still a young man.
    Does France have term limits? Can he stand again?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,273
    BigRich said:

    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Anyone else think it might be Le Pen vs Melenchon in 2027 ?

    Macron definitely has a problem. Who comes next?
    5 years is a long time. The worst of the post covid inflation will be over well before the next election, and Macron is still a young man.
    Does France have term limits? Can he stand again?
    Yes. No.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,735
    Yesterday I was told by the Cabinet Office: “The Independent Adviser on Ministers’ Interests has confirmed that they are completely satisfied with the steps the Chancellor has taken to meet the requirements of the Code”. So either they were lying, or this is totally cosmetic. https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1513222080770236420

    The whole 'citizens of nowhere' speech certainly lands different now. https://adambienkov.substack.com/p/rishi-sunak-and-the-citizens-of-nowhere?s=w https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1513227803243732996/photo/1
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,910

    Zemmour endorses Le Pen.

    Quelle surprise
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 6,760

    IshmaelZ said:

    Ah, good! The thread's finally working!

    As Ariadne said to the bishop
    Is that an Inception reference?
    Theseus
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,273
    boulay said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    FPT

    kjh said:



    Nobody should admire Franco for any reason. Of course HYUFD talks again of stuff he didn't live thru' (unlike many of us who were around when he was in power and visited Spain), although a quick look at Wikipedia answers the question as to whether he should be admired for anything.

    I know nothing about Franco except a vague sense that he was not a good guy based on the fact he was close to Mussolini and Peron. Is that unfair, or can I stick him on my list of shit I don’t to know about?
    Franco was a butcher who overthrew a democratic government and slaughtered his opponents wholesale. One can make two mitigating claims for him. He stayed out of WW2, to the disappointment of Hitler, which enabled us to maintain Gibaltar. And in his later years, he largely stopped murdering people and it became possible to expressed mild dissent at an individual level without getting arrested.

    All things are relative. He was arguably marginally less bad than Mussolini, and certainly less bad than Hitler.
    I was pondering the relative evil/nastiness of various dictators and tyrants the other day. Impossible to do objectively of course but my list of a few notables, with the vilest at the top, would be:

    Hitler (of course)
    Mao
    Stalin
    Pol Pot
    Putin (new entry)
    Mussolini
    Franco
    Kim Il-sung
    Not sure I go with that. Hitler was a corporate kinda guy, they had a whole conference about the way forward. In Wannsee. Mussolini was a nice bloke who at least initially tried to throttle back the whole anti jewish thang. Kim is just a loser, not even any good at being bad.
    Lol "Hitler was a corporate kinda guy" - that's alright then.

    Six million Jews but it was a corporate decision, what's a Führer to do, eh?
    I think that might have gone “whoosh” over your head on the piss-take front.
    It did.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,005
    Is there a possible north/south hawk/dove divide in Europe with regards to the war. By north I mean us, Scandanavia, the Baltics and Poland on one side and the rest of Europe on the other? It certainly feels a bit like that.

    I wonder if the northern future forum has legs?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,392

    Zemmour endorses Le Pen.

    On a promise?
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 4,530
    BigRich said:

    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Anyone else think it might be Le Pen vs Melenchon in 2027 ?

    Macron definitely has a problem. Who comes next?
    5 years is a long time. The worst of the post covid inflation will be over well before the next election, and Macron is still a young man.
    Does France have term limits? Can he stand again?
    Yes you can only have two terms as President . If Macron does win then who takes up the mantle of more centrist candidate next time . The traditional left and right are in a terrible state and it could well be far left v far right next time !
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    Foxy said:

    Bad night for Pecresse and Zemmour. It looks 60/40 to Macron in a fortnight to me.

    A comfortable win for Macron in the next round. The French will always do whatever is necessary to make sure the far right never get a sniff. Some very weird predictions on here. Wish fulfillment by the Tory Brexiteers I suspect
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,910

    IshmaelZ said:

    Ah, good! The thread's finally working!

    As Ariadne said to the bishop
    Is that an Inception reference?
    Theseus
    But the ancient Greeks had bishops?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,957

    So all that spunking over the youngsters* rallying for/to Le Pen was just that.

    *metaphorically

    2024: So all that spunking over the oldsters* rallying for/to SKS was just that.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    edited April 2022

    Do you have anything to back up your guess Mike? Melenchon supporters and leftists have been telling media for weeks and months they switch to Le Pen this time - ever since they stood together in yellow jackets vowing to stop France’s Rishi Sunak from imposing France’s “Thatcherism” throughout his second term.

    I bow to everyone’s superior understanding of politics and political betting, if PB still feel this looks same as last time, with Macron still in with a chance of a second round win. To me the electorate is behaving in a completely different way.

    Fillion/Pecresse 20% to 5%
    Le Pen + Zemmour 30%
    And Melenchon supporters (20% again) vowing to cast anti Macron votes.

    By Tuesday evening polls can show Le Pen lead, probably all of them right through to voting day

    We've all been poised by our betting slips waiting for your latest predictions
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,910
    Department of Aisne (next door to Pas de Calais) goes 41.5% for Le Pen.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,279
    Centre-right: 20.0% to 4.7%.
    Centre-left: 6.4% to 1.8%.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    edited April 2022
    EPG said:

    Do you have anything to back up your guess Mike? Melenchon supporters and leftists have been telling media for weeks and months they switch to Le Pen this time - ever since they stood together in yellow jackets vowing to stop France’s Rishi Sunak from imposing France’s “Thatcherism” throughout his second term.

    I bow to everyone’s superior understanding of politics and political betting, if PB still feel this looks same as last time, with Macron still in with a chance of a second round win. To me the electorate is behaving in a completely different way.

    Fillion/Pecresse 20% to 5%
    Le Pen + Zemmour 30%
    And Melenchon supporters (20% again) vowing to cast anti Macron votes.

    By Tuesday evening polls can show Le Pen lead, probably all of them right through to voting day

    Last time they split something like 60-25 in favour of Macron. Like last time, most Mélenchon votes today were sympathisers of other left-wing movements settling for the most electable left-wing candidate, not committed anti-system activists, which is clear from the polling dynamics of Jadot, Hidalgo, Taubira and even Roussel by the end.
    There’s no point arguing about it when I have the answer handy 🙂

    Fillion and Melenchon had 40% last time, it’s now 25. There’s a lot of abstentions in that 40% that was not a vote for Macron last time, and he’s now viewed different than last time, more concern on the left for Macrons Thatcherite reforms these days, less concern on the left for Le Pen being anti EU and determined to control immigration.

    image
  • MalcolmDunnMalcolmDunn Posts: 139
    If I were French I would feel deeply unformatted for Macron's supporters to wave the EU flag in greater number than the tricolour.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,996
    Jonathan said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Anyone else think it might be Le Pen vs Melenchon in 2027 ?

    Macron definitely has a problem. Who comes next?
    Édouard Philippe, mayor of Le Havre, EM's first PM until he kind of became more popular than the boss? Anyway, he is the centrist candidate-in-waiting, a left-leaning conservative instead of a right-leaning Socialist but basically appealing to the same institutional coalition.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,957
    Masters lead down to 1....
  • Farooq said:

    Yet another header that fails to condemn Stalin

    I plan to condemn Stalin next weekend.

    I'm toying with calling the piece 'The Death of Stalinism'
    Yet Putin is carrying out in Ukraine Stalin's exact strategy for Poland. It's as if he had dug out the KGB manual on destroying a country's independent existence. I'm wondering who his Valery Blokhin is.
    Well, the short version of the piece.

    Hitler wasn't all bad, after all he killed Hitler and stopped fascism taking hold in Western Europe for nearly a century, so Putin might be the new Hitler, he might end an evil ideology like Stalinism for a century.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,164

    Masters lead down to 1....

    I back Smith before the tournament began. Fingers crossed.
  • *Legendary modesty klaxon*

    Betting advice, lay Marine Le Pen like I would lay Marion Maréchal-Le Pen.

    I hope you have an expansive definition of safe sex.
    Padded headboard.
    Padded keyboard?
    It's all voice activated these days.

    'Hey Siri, find me.....'
  • boulayboulay Posts: 3,769

    Zemmour endorses Le Pen.

    Tried to find a pic of Macron giving a chef’s kiss..
    Here is a picture of him kissing the lady who cooked his school lunches if that qualifies?


  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 703
    edited April 2022

    Department of Aisne (next door to Pas de Calais) goes 41.5% for Le Pen.

    Aisne was one of only 2 deps she won in Rd 2 2017, the other being Pas-de-Calais, she is likely to win a lot more on 24 April
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,957
    edited April 2022
    tlg86 said:

    Masters lead down to 1....

    I back Smith before the tournament began. Fingers crossed.
    Scheffler's last 4 tee shots have all gone well left....
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    Roger said:

    Do you have anything to back up your guess Mike? Melenchon supporters and leftists have been telling media for weeks and months they switch to Le Pen this time - ever since they stood together in yellow jackets vowing to stop France’s Rishi Sunak from imposing France’s “Thatcherism” throughout his second term.

    I bow to everyone’s superior understanding of politics and political betting, if PB still feel this looks same as last time, with Macron still in with a chance of a second round win. To me the electorate is behaving in a completely different way.

    Fillion/Pecresse 20% to 5%
    Le Pen + Zemmour 30%
    And Melenchon supporters (20% again) vowing to cast anti Macron votes.

    By Tuesday evening polls can show Le Pen lead, probably all of them right through to voting day

    We've all been poised by our betting slips waiting for your latest predictions
    Well look at Andy JS post two above yours and tell me nothing has changed.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891

    tlg86 said:

    Is this going to be sufficient?

    Mélenchon takes to the microphone, chanted by the crowd as a winner. Key passage, repeated three times: "we must not give a single vote to Madame Le Pen. We must not give a single vote to Madame Le Pen. We must not give a single to Madame Le Pen."

    https://twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1513227666391982082?t=YEb79U6V8LkfrOSUaDVz2Q&s=19

    Not actually endorsing Macron?
    No he didn't mention Macron at all, except obliquely as one of the two evils that people will have to choose between.

    For Le Pen to win she has to succeed in making it a referendum on Macron instead of a referendum on her.
    How would you propose she does that? They're buggers these voters
  • Gary_BurtonGary_Burton Posts: 737

    Department of Aisne (next door to Pas de Calais) goes 41.5% for Le Pen.

    Aisne was one of only 2 deps she won in Rd 2 2017, the other being Pas-de-Calais
    That's 5.8% up on 2017. Will be interesting to see all the results for the south in particular
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,926

    tlg86 said:

    Masters lead down to 1....

    I back Smith before the tournament began. Fingers crossed.
    Scheffler's last 4 shots have all gone well left....
    I backed Scheffler but have greened up.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 5,997

    If I were French I would feel deeply unformatted for Macron's supporters to wave the EU flag in greater number than the tricolour.

    So you feel France needs reformatting?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    Roger said:

    Foxy said:

    Bad night for Pecresse and Zemmour. It looks 60/40 to Macron in a fortnight to me.

    A comfortable win for Macron in the next round. The French will always do whatever is necessary to make sure the far right never get a sniff. Some very weird predictions on here. Wish fulfillment by the Tory Brexiteers I suspect
    Christ....I didn't think Le Pen had a chance, now Rog has spoken, nailed on.....
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 4,746
    My gut feeling here is that the odds on Le Pen are good value, and will significantly shorten closer to the day.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IshmaelZ said:

    Ah, good! The thread's finally working!

    As Ariadne said to the bishop
    Is that an Inception reference?
    Theseus
    But the ancient Greeks had bishops?
    They had bloody anything with a pulse

    And indeed necrophilia is a good Greek word for a reason
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786
    Roger said:

    tlg86 said:

    Is this going to be sufficient?

    Mélenchon takes to the microphone, chanted by the crowd as a winner. Key passage, repeated three times: "we must not give a single vote to Madame Le Pen. We must not give a single vote to Madame Le Pen. We must not give a single to Madame Le Pen."

    https://twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1513227666391982082?t=YEb79U6V8LkfrOSUaDVz2Q&s=19

    Not actually endorsing Macron?
    No he didn't mention Macron at all, except obliquely as one of the two evils that people will have to choose between.

    For Le Pen to win she has to succeed in making it a referendum on Macron instead of a referendum on her.
    How would you propose she does that? They're buggers these voters
    She needs an ad man with a foot in la France profonde but who can feel the pulse of the cosmopolitan urbanites.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,996

    EPG said:

    Do you have anything to back up your guess Mike? Melenchon supporters and leftists have been telling media for weeks and months they switch to Le Pen this time - ever since they stood together in yellow jackets vowing to stop France’s Rishi Sunak from imposing France’s “Thatcherism” throughout his second term.

    I bow to everyone’s superior understanding of politics and political betting, if PB still feel this looks same as last time, with Macron still in with a chance of a second round win. To me the electorate is behaving in a completely different way.

    Fillion/Pecresse 20% to 5%
    Le Pen + Zemmour 30%
    And Melenchon supporters (20% again) vowing to cast anti Macron votes.

    By Tuesday evening polls can show Le Pen lead, probably all of them right through to voting day

    Last time they split something like 60-25 in favour of Macron. Like last time, most Mélenchon votes today were sympathisers of other left-wing movements settling for the most electable left-wing candidate, not committed anti-system activists, which is clear from the polling dynamics of Jadot, Hidalgo, Taubira and even Roussel by the end.
    There’s no point arguing about it when I have the answer handy 🙂

    Fillion and Melenchon had 40% last time, it’s now 25. There’s a lot of abstentions in that 40% that was not a vote for Macron last time, and he’s now viewed different than last time, more concern on the left for Macrons Thatcherite reforms these days, less concern on the left for Le Pen being anti EU and determined to control immigration.
    There is not "more concern on the left for Macrons Thatcherite reforms these days". This is how they tried to demonise him first time round - not just the left but also the trad. Gaullists - then he largely did not go through with them and reinvented himself as the Covid-protective president. Look at Chevènement as an example of this tendency coming around to Macron. The softening on Le Pen sounds like wishful thinking.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489
    boulay said:

    Zemmour endorses Le Pen.

    Tried to find a pic of Macron giving a chef’s kiss..
    Here is a picture of him kissing the lady who cooked his school lunches if that qualifies?


    I thought she taught him to speak English, maybe I miss-remembered?
This discussion has been closed.