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Macron edges up in the betting – politicalbetting.com
Macron edges up in the betting – politicalbetting.com
%Emmanuel MACRON28,1Marine LE PEN23,3Jean-Luc MELENCHON20,1Eric ZEMMOUR7,2Valérie PECRESSE5,0Yannick JADOT4,4Jean LASSALLE3,3Fabien ROUSSEL2,7Nicolas DUPONT-AIGNAN2,3Anne HIDALGO2,1Nathalie ARTHAUD0,8Philippe POUTOU0,7
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Betting advice, lay Marine Le Pen like I would lay Marion Maréchal-Le Pen.
Reasonably good result for Melenchon too who is projected to be up slightly too on what he got last time and his supporters will likely now determine who wins the Presidency in the runoff. Macron will need a majority of them to turn out and vote for him in the runoff despite their dislike of his economic policies because they dislike Le Pen's social policies.
Terrible projection for Pecresse, down 15% on what Fillon got in 2017 when he was Les Republicains candidate. Poor result for Hidalgo too who is also down 4% on what the Socialist party's 2017 candidate Hamon got.
OK result for Zemmour in that he beat Pecresse but he would have hoped for a higher voteshare. Most of his supporters will now probably switch to Le Pen in the runoff
@afneil
·
14m
French Communist party calls on voters to switch to Macron in round 2. Not all will by any means. Not many Communist voters these days anyway. Green leader also endorses Macron. He has more votes at 4%.
I'm toying with calling the piece 'The Death of Stalinism'
He doesn't directly call on people not to vote for Le Pen.
Edit: Now is is saying "don't give Le Pen a single vote".
I bow to everyone’s superior understanding of politics and political betting, if PB still feel this looks same as last time, with Macron still in with a chance of a second round win. To me the electorate is behaving in a completely different way.
Fillion/Pecresse 20% to 5%
Le Pen + Zemmour 30%
And Melenchon supporters (20% again) vowing to cast anti Macron votes.
By Tuesday evening polls can show Le Pen lead, probably all of them right through to voting day
Ben Page
@benatipsos
·
2m
Latest revised estimates Emmanuel MACRON
28,5
Marine LE PEN
23,6
Jean-Luc MELENCHON
20,3
Eric ZEMMOUR
7,0
Pecresse's performance was woeful - and En Marche seems like such a personal vehicle for Macron in presidential terms.
That's an okay result for Macron I suppose.
I'm not that sure about him but Le Pen has to lose. I cannot contemplate a politician so enamoured with Vladimir Putin. It shows either a total lack of judgment or something even more sinister. Consider what he did in the Donbass. What he did in Syria. His murderous rule at home destroying any opposition. The absence of the rule of law. The state controlled media telling poisonous lies and stirring up paranoia and hatred on a daily basis. That didn't start on 22 February even if it has got even worse since then. It has been clear for nearly twenty years. And she had a picture of him on her campaign literature. Intolerable.
(I now expect to be proved wrong on 24/4).
Oh Zemmour
Broke my heart
Now I'm aching for you
Mon Zemmour
What's a boy in love
Supposed to do
Hitler (of course)
Mao
Stalin
Pol Pot
Putin (new entry)
Mussolini
Franco
Kim Il-sung
Does someone come up with an alternative that is sufficiently different to be worth voting for without being batso?
Best live map I have found so far:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2022/apr/10/french-election-2020-projected-results-and-latest-results
and best map of results in:
https://www.france24.com/en/live-2022-french-presidential-election-–-first-round-results
*metaphorically
Putin vs Mussolini - hmmm. Mussolini was generally not especially murderous of opponents* - the murder of one opposition MP nearly brought him down (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giacomo_Matteotti). Abyssinia vs Chechnya and Ukraine.... hmmmmm
*In his first incarnation. The Salo Republic was a deeply vile Nazi state, though.
You must not give one vote to #LePen!"
He's not in the second tour...but gained 20% of the vote.
#presidentielles2022
https://t.co/IpqRvVEnBT
Mélenchon takes to the microphone, chanted by the crowd as a winner. Key passage, repeated three times: "we must not give a single vote to Madame Le Pen. We must not give a single vote to Madame Le Pen. We must not give a single to Madame Le Pen."
https://twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1513227666391982082?t=YEb79U6V8LkfrOSUaDVz2Q&s=19
Six million Jews but it was a corporate decision, what's a Führer to do, eh?
Assuming Macron is re elected he will have been President for 10 years in 2027 and unlikely to run again
For Le Pen to win she has to succeed in making it a referendum on Macron instead of a referendum on her.
The whole 'citizens of nowhere' speech certainly lands different now. https://adambienkov.substack.com/p/rishi-sunak-and-the-citizens-of-nowhere?s=w https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1513227803243732996/photo/1
I wonder if the northern future forum has legs?
Centre-left: 6.4% to 1.8%.
Fillion and Melenchon had 40% last time, it’s now 25. There’s a lot of abstentions in that 40% that was not a vote for Macron last time, and he’s now viewed different than last time, more concern on the left for Macrons Thatcherite reforms these days, less concern on the left for Le Pen being anti EU and determined to control immigration.
Hitler wasn't all bad, after all he killed Hitler and stopped fascism taking hold in Western Europe for nearly a century, so Putin might be the new Hitler, he might end an evil ideology like Stalinism for a century.
'Hey Siri, find me.....'
And indeed necrophilia is a good Greek word for a reason
My message has been at first glance it looks like little has changed, but look closer and the electorate are a heck of a lot more…
To the right? Hating the establishment even more? Even more anti EU? Even more anti immigration? Even more unhappy in how cost of living crisis, taxation and fairness in general is being handled by Macron?
Take green as an example. Someone in a yellow jacket protesting about fuel prices and fuel tax should not necessarily be thought of as anti-green, it simply shows green agenda’s cannot be rolled out without tax fairness and social justice at the same time.