It's touch and go for Macron. Remember she'll get the majority of Zemmour and Dupont-Aignon's vote.
It would be interesting to know what (a) the expected abstention rates were immediately after the first round last time, and (b) what they ever up being.
Good question. Here's a poll from the day of the first round last time:
Right now, it looks like a narrow Macron victory in the second round.
But Le Pen could pull it off, especially if she performs well in the debate on the 20th.
When we hear Le Pen, do we think of the extreme unelectable party of her father?
But has both her repositioning/makeover to centre, and the electorates drift towards Wanting tighter immigration and EU scepticism (spanning left to right) means many French voters today, particularly former LR ones, see her differently than the PB consensus of what she stands for? Add to that the centrist candidate is filthy rich with a programme of reforms that will hurt the working poor even more right now? I not saying Macron’s reform or domestic programme is wrong, only when you enter a campaign be judicious and in tune with the electorate. Macron has entered this race distracted by international politics, on a platform handing voters to Le Pen he can I’ll afford to do?
Why call it a shock result in French election if she wins?
I’d buy a lot of that except for the Putinist elephant in the room. She may not be her father, but she is friendly with, an apologist for, and at one time funded by Putin. And she likes Trump.
A MLP win would be a major Russian victory.
Yes. @leon tried to goad folk into admitting they'd favour Le Pen over Melenchon. Not me. Vlad would choose among the big 3. 1 Le Pen. 2 Melenchon. 3 And a fair way last Macron. Choosing the candidate Putin doesn't want is most important right now. I'm surprised how many fervent pro-Ukrainians anti-Putiners are so ambivalent about the choice in France.
Right now, it looks like a narrow Macron victory in the second round.
But Le Pen could pull it off, especially if she performs well in the debate on the 20th.
When we hear Le Pen, do we think of the extreme unelectable party of her father?
But has both her repositioning/makeover to centre, and the electorates drift towards Wanting tighter immigration and EU scepticism (spanning left to right) means many French voters today, particularly former LR ones, see her differently than the PB consensus of what she stands for? Add to that the centrist candidate is filthy rich with a programme of reforms that will hurt the working poor even more right now? I not saying Macron’s reform or domestic programme is wrong, only when you enter a campaign be judicious and in tune with the electorate. Macron has entered this race distracted by international politics, on a platform handing voters to Le Pen he can I’ll afford to do?
Why call it a shock result in French election if she wins?
I’d buy a lot of that except for the Putinist elephant in the room. She may not be her father, but she is friendly with, an apologist for, and at one time funded by Putin. And she likes Trump.
A MLP win would be a major Russian victory.
Yes. @leon tried to goad folk into admitting they'd favour Le Pen over Melenchon. Not me. Choosing the candidate Putin doesn't want is most important right now. I'm surprised how many fervent pro-Ukrainians anti-Putiners are so ambivalent.
When looking at pollsters’ current R2 estimates you can check against their R1 calls. The pollster with the 51/49 score underestimated both Macron and Melenchon in R1. All pollsters did.
Right now, it looks like a narrow Macron victory in the second round.
But Le Pen could pull it off, especially if she performs well in the debate on the 20th.
When we hear Le Pen, do we think of the extreme unelectable party of her father?
But has both her repositioning/makeover to centre, and the electorates drift towards Wanting tighter immigration and EU scepticism (spanning left to right) means many French voters today, particularly former LR ones, see her differently than the PB consensus of what she stands for? Add to that the centrist candidate is filthy rich with a programme of reforms that will hurt the working poor even more right now? I not saying Macron’s reform or domestic programme is wrong, only when you enter a campaign be judicious and in tune with the electorate. Macron has entered this race distracted by international politics, on a platform handing voters to Le Pen he can I’ll afford to do?
Why call it a shock result in French election if she wins?
I’d buy a lot of that except for the Putinist elephant in the room. She may not be her father, but she is friendly with, an apologist for, and at one time funded by Putin. And she likes Trump.
A MLP win would be a major Russian victory.
Yes. @leon tried to goad folk into admitting they'd favour Le Pen over Melenchon. Not me. Choosing the candidate Putin doesn't want is most important right now. I'm surprised how many fervent pro-Ukrainians anti-Putiners are so ambivalent.
It's touch and go for Macron. Remember she'll get the majority of Zemmour and Dupont-Aignon's vote.
It would be interesting to know what (a) the expected abstention rates were immediately after the first round last time, and (b) what they ever up being.
Good question. Here's a poll from the day of the first round last time:
The bit of the chart that *really* stands out there is that a large number of first round abstentions went for Macron in the second round last time.
Although that’s what people said they were going to do so it needs to be cross referenced with what actually happened. I know that turnout was down in the second round and 3 million people voted for none of the above.
JLM is even more pro Putin than Le Pen, I doubt he would be that upset.
Though still looks like Le Pen will narrowly get second place, currently she leads Melenchon by 0.8%
Almost 4% in votes actually counted - Melenchon is killing it in the greater Paris region (might end up winning 4 deps), but that 1.2m vote gap looks too large to close I think.
It's touch and go for Macron. Remember she'll get the majority of Zemmour and Dupont-Aignon's vote.
It would be interesting to know what (a) the expected abstention rates were immediately after the first round last time, and (b) what they ever up being.
Good question. Here's a poll from the day of the first round last time:
The bit of the chart that *really* stands out there is that a large number of first round abstentions went for Macron in the second round last time.
Large like a game changer? It’s not small fry, but is it really large on that chart, not as large compared to the 1st round Fillion supporters and Melenchon supporters going to Macron last time. And would Macron get all that first round abstention this time, or more likely, eaten it already this time with three quarters of LR support already no longer in his larder?
Right now, it looks like a narrow Macron victory in the second round.
But Le Pen could pull it off, especially if she performs well in the debate on the 20th.
When we hear Le Pen, do we think of the extreme unelectable party of her father?
But has both her repositioning/makeover to centre, and the electorates drift towards Wanting tighter immigration and EU scepticism (spanning left to right) means many French voters today, particularly former LR ones, see her differently than the PB consensus of what she stands for? Add to that the centrist candidate is filthy rich with a programme of reforms that will hurt the working poor even more right now? I not saying Macron’s reform or domestic programme is wrong, only when you enter a campaign be judicious and in tune with the electorate. Macron has entered this race distracted by international politics, on a platform handing voters to Le Pen he can I’ll afford to do?
Why call it a shock result in French election if she wins?
I’d buy a lot of that except for the Putinist elephant in the room. She may not be her father, but she is friendly with, an apologist for, and at one time funded by Putin. And she likes Trump.
A MLP win would be a major Russian victory.
Yes. @leon tried to goad folk into admitting they'd favour Le Pen over Melenchon. Not me. Vlad would choose among the big 3. 1 Le Pen. 2 Melenchon. 3 And a fair way last Macron. Choosing the candidate Putin doesn't want is most important right now. I'm surprised how many fervent pro-Ukrainians anti-Putiners are so ambivalent about the choice in France.
I’m quite saddened by MoonRabbit, once an interesting poster who now seems to solely focus on ramping the right. Jumped the shark with the Boris June election nonsense, now going out to bat for Le Pen. What has happened to her?
There's still a smaller gap between Macron and Le Pen than between Le Pen and Melenchon, although that may change with the final 11% of the vote to be reported.
JLM is even more pro Putin than Le Pen, I doubt he would be that upset.
Though still looks like Le Pen will narrowly get second place, currently she leads Melenchon by 0.8%
Almost 4% in votes actually counted - Melenchon is killing it in the greater Paris region (might end up winning 4 deps), but that 1.2m vote gap looks too large to close I think.
Paris is a clear Macron first and Melenchon second, it is the rest of France that will put Le Pen in the runoff
Right now, it looks like a narrow Macron victory in the second round.
But Le Pen could pull it off, especially if she performs well in the debate on the 20th.
When we hear Le Pen, do we think of the extreme unelectable party of her father?
But has both her repositioning/makeover to centre, and the electorates drift towards Wanting tighter immigration and EU scepticism (spanning left to right) means many French voters today, particularly former LR ones, see her differently than the PB consensus of what she stands for? Add to that the centrist candidate is filthy rich with a programme of reforms that will hurt the working poor even more right now? I not saying Macron’s reform or domestic programme is wrong, only when you enter a campaign be judicious and in tune with the electorate. Macron has entered this race distracted by international politics, on a platform handing voters to Le Pen he can I’ll afford to do?
Why call it a shock result in French election if she wins?
Well, I've said for some time that she's a one-in-six shot for the Presidency, and have bet accordingly. I don't really think that my expectations have changed that much with the first round. Basically: Macron outperformed by about 1%, Le Pen was pretty much in line, Melenchon did 2-3% better, and Zemmour and Pecresse were a disaster.
Le Pen should pick up most of the DA and Zemmour vote, which puts her in a strong position - but not that strong. LP + 80% of Zemmour + 80% of DA gets her to about 30%... which is two and change ahead of Macron.
The problem is that she's only two and change ahead of Macron, and pretty much every other defeated candidate is going to endorse him. Melenchon's 'not one vote' comment was pretty forthright. And, sure, I don't believe that endorsements matter that much... but at the same time, they don't have to matter that much. If a couple of percent of that Melenchon vote that was previously going to abstain comes out for Macron, then he wins fairly easily.
So... I'm sticking with my current strategy, which is currently mildly green Le Pen, and slightly more green Macron. I will be selling Le Pen at 18-20%, and buying her at 10-12%.
JLM is even more pro Putin than Le Pen, I doubt he would be that upset.
Though still looks like Le Pen will narrowly get second place, currently she leads Melenchon by 0.8%
No he isn't. His opponents claim he is. He deniea it. Le Pen luxuriated in her closeness to Vlad. Until very recently. Black isn't white.
Melenchon wants to withdraw France from NATO, a huge boost for Putin
A France outside NATO under Melenchon would be hugely better for NATO than a Putin supporting President inside it. Get real. There'll be champagne flowing in Moscow if Le Pen wins. And you know it.
JLM is even more pro Putin than Le Pen, I doubt he would be that upset.
Though still looks like Le Pen will narrowly get second place, currently she leads Melenchon by 0.8%
No he isn't. His opponents claim he is. He deniea it. Le Pen luxuriated in her closeness to Vlad. Until very recently. Black isn't white.
Melenchon is to Le Pen what Corbyn is to Farage. Both Russia apologists but from different perspectives. She is an ideological fellow traveller, like Orban. He’s just classically anti West and anti NATO, a useful idiot.
Right now, it looks like a narrow Macron victory in the second round.
But Le Pen could pull it off, especially if she performs well in the debate on the 20th.
When we hear Le Pen, do we think of the extreme unelectable party of her father?
But has both her repositioning/makeover to centre, and the electorates drift towards Wanting tighter immigration and EU scepticism (spanning left to right) means many French voters today, particularly former LR ones, see her differently than the PB consensus of what she stands for? Add to that the centrist candidate is filthy rich with a programme of reforms that will hurt the working poor even more right now? I not saying Macron’s reform or domestic programme is wrong, only when you enter a campaign be judicious and in tune with the electorate. Macron has entered this race distracted by international politics, on a platform handing voters to Le Pen he can I’ll afford to do?
Why call it a shock result in French election if she wins?
I’d buy a lot of that except for the Putinist elephant in the room. She may not be her father, but she is friendly with, an apologist for, and at one time funded by Putin. And she likes Trump.
A MLP win would be a major Russian victory.
Yes. @leon tried to goad folk into admitting they'd favour Le Pen over Melenchon. Not me. Choosing the candidate Putin doesn't want is most important right now. I'm surprised how many fervent pro-Ukrainians anti-Putiners are so ambivalent.
Putin would probably prefer Melenchon to Le Pen
So bang goes your theory
Absolute bollocks.
Putin wants anything that sows confusion and division. Melenchon is a mad Corbynite left winger who approves of Venezuela. He also has a more extreme position on NATO - total withdrawal - than Le Pen. He is also anti-EU
"Jean-Luc Mélenchon, presidential candidate of radical left party La France Insoumise, hopes to push member countries to break away from EU treaties “that block us” if he wins the election in April. EURACTIV France reports.
If he fails to find support among the EU27, Mélenchon, known for his no-holds-barred discourse, said he will just disregard EU rules that go against his programme."
I'm sorry if this discomforts you, but in a forced choice, if your intention is to make sure Putin does not get his preference, you should choose Le Pen over Melenchon.
Melenchon would also fuck the French economy
8] Domestic policies proposed by Mélenchon include a 100% income tax on earnings over €360,000 a year,
Although Le Pen has avoided being harmed by her Putin baggage during the first round the game changes now with just two candidates .
I expect fireworks in the debate .
From Macron and Le Pen? The debate was take a book to read event last time. Neither of them could debate their way through a lettuce leaf.
Also of course, do the French electorate agree with you In wanting Macron to debate on the international not the domestic, or is that precisely the approach that drops him into trouble?
It's touch and go for Macron. Remember she'll get the majority of Zemmour and Dupont-Aignon's vote.
It would be interesting to know what (a) the expected abstention rates were immediately after the first round last time, and (b) what they ever up being.
Good question. Here's a poll from the day of the first round last time:
The bit of the chart that *really* stands out there is that a large number of first round abstentions went for Macron in the second round last time.
Although that’s what people said they were going to do so it needs to be cross referenced with what actually happened. I know that turnout was down in the second round and 3 million people voted for none of the above.
That chart shows exactly that: i.e. turnout meaningfully down if you look at Macron and Le Pen compared to the candidates previous votes, and with a surprising number of abstentions voting in the second round.
JLM is even more pro Putin than Le Pen, I doubt he would be that upset.
Though still looks like Le Pen will narrowly get second place, currently she leads Melenchon by 0.8%
No he isn't. His opponents claim he is. He deniea it. Le Pen luxuriated in her closeness to Vlad. Until very recently. Black isn't white.
Melenchon wants to withdraw France from NATO, a huge boost for Putin
A France outside NATO under Melenchon would be hugely better for NATO than a Putin supporting President inside it. Get real. There'll be champagne flowing in Moscow if Le Pen wins. And you know it.
Sorry? The actual break up of NATO is better than France adopting a Gaullist position inside NATO?
What fucking nonsense. You just can't cope with the fact your own logic points you towards a Le Pen vote, in that thought experiment
JLM is even more pro Putin than Le Pen, I doubt he would be that upset.
Though still looks like Le Pen will narrowly get second place, currently she leads Melenchon by 0.8%
No he isn't. His opponents claim he is. He deniea it. Le Pen luxuriated in her closeness to Vlad. Until very recently. Black isn't white.
Melenchon wants to withdraw France from NATO, a huge boost for Putin
A France outside NATO under Melenchon would be hugely better for NATO than a Putin supporting President inside it. Get real. There'll be champagne flowing in Moscow if Le Pen wins. And you know it.
Sorry? The actual break up of NATO is better than France adopting a Gaullist position inside NATO?
What fucking nonsense. You just can't cope with the fact your own logic points you towards a Le Pen vote, in that thought experiment
It looks to me as if the French people want radical change; the old parties are dead in the water. But not enough of them want the specific type of radical change proposed by either a) Le Pen or b) Melenchon, and they think Zemmour is beyond the pale.
It's touch and go for Macron. Remember she'll get the majority of Zemmour and Dupont-Aignon's vote.
It would be interesting to know what (a) the expected abstention rates were immediately after the first round last time, and (b) what they ever up being.
Good question. Here's a poll from the day of the first round last time:
The bit of the chart that *really* stands out there is that a large number of first round abstentions went for Macron in the second round last time.
Although that’s what people said they were going to do so it needs to be cross referenced with what actually happened. I know that turnout was down in the second round and 3 million people voted for none of the above.
That chart shows exactly that: i.e. turnout meaningfully down if you look at Macron and Le Pen compared to the candidates previous votes, and with a surprising number of abstentions voting in the second round.
Good point. So the question is whether that kind of voter will be motivated to get out to vote for him a second time. If they were “stop Le Pen” voters, perhaps she’s done enough to detoxify herself for them not to bother.
Right now, it looks like a narrow Macron victory in the second round.
But Le Pen could pull it off, especially if she performs well in the debate on the 20th.
When we hear Le Pen, do we think of the extreme unelectable party of her father?
But has both her repositioning/makeover to centre, and the electorates drift towards Wanting tighter immigration and EU scepticism (spanning left to right) means many French voters today, particularly former LR ones, see her differently than the PB consensus of what she stands for? Add to that the centrist candidate is filthy rich with a programme of reforms that will hurt the working poor even more right now? I not saying Macron’s reform or domestic programme is wrong, only when you enter a campaign be judicious and in tune with the electorate. Macron has entered this race distracted by international politics, on a platform handing voters to Le Pen he can I’ll afford to do?
Why call it a shock result in French election if she wins?
I’d buy a lot of that except for the Putinist elephant in the room. She may not be her father, but she is friendly with, an apologist for, and at one time funded by Putin. And she likes Trump.
A MLP win would be a major Russian victory.
Yes. @leon tried to goad folk into admitting they'd favour Le Pen over Melenchon. Not me. Choosing the candidate Putin doesn't want is most important right now. I'm surprised how many fervent pro-Ukrainians anti-Putiners are so ambivalent.
Putin would probably prefer Melenchon to Le Pen
So bang goes your theory
Absolute bollocks.
Putin wants anything that sows confusion and division. Melenchon is a mad Corbynite left winger who approves of Venezuela. He also has a more extreme position on NATO - total withdrawal - than Le Pen. He is also anti-EU
"Jean-Luc Mélenchon, presidential candidate of radical left party La France Insoumise, hopes to push member countries to break away from EU treaties “that block us” if he wins the election in April. EURACTIV France reports.
If he fails to find support among the EU27, Mélenchon, known for his no-holds-barred discourse, said he will just disregard EU rules that go against his programme."
I'm sorry if this discomforts you, but in a forced choice, if your intention is to make sure Putin does not get his preference, you should choose Le Pen over Melenchon.
Melenchon would also fuck the French economy
8] Domestic policies proposed by Mélenchon include a 100% income tax on earnings over €360,000 a year,
Right now, it looks like a narrow Macron victory in the second round.
But Le Pen could pull it off, especially if she performs well in the debate on the 20th.
When we hear Le Pen, do we think of the extreme unelectable party of her father?
But has both her repositioning/makeover to centre, and the electorates drift towards Wanting tighter immigration and EU scepticism (spanning left to right) means many French voters today, particularly former LR ones, see her differently than the PB consensus of what she stands for? Add to that the centrist candidate is filthy rich with a programme of reforms that will hurt the working poor even more right now? I not saying Macron’s reform or domestic programme is wrong, only when you enter a campaign be judicious and in tune with the electorate. Macron has entered this race distracted by international politics, on a platform handing voters to Le Pen he can I’ll afford to do?
Why call it a shock result in French election if she wins?
I’d buy a lot of that except for the Putinist elephant in the room. She may not be her father, but she is friendly with, an apologist for, and at one time funded by Putin. And she likes Trump.
A MLP win would be a major Russian victory.
Yes. @leon tried to goad folk into admitting they'd favour Le Pen over Melenchon. Not me. Choosing the candidate Putin doesn't want is most important right now. I'm surprised how many fervent pro-Ukrainians anti-Putiners are so ambivalent.
Putin would probably prefer Melenchon to Le Pen
So bang goes your theory
Absolute bollocks.
Putin wants anything that sows confusion and division. Melenchon is a mad Corbynite left winger who approves of Venezuela. He also has a more extreme position on NATO - total withdrawal - than Le Pen. He is also anti-EU
"Jean-Luc Mélenchon, presidential candidate of radical left party La France Insoumise, hopes to push member countries to break away from EU treaties “that block us” if he wins the election in April. EURACTIV France reports.
If he fails to find support among the EU27, Mélenchon, known for his no-holds-barred discourse, said he will just disregard EU rules that go against his programme."
I'm sorry if this discomforts you, but in a forced choice, if your intention is to make sure Putin does not get his preference, you should choose Le Pen over Melenchon.
Melenchon would also fuck the French economy
8] Domestic policies proposed by Mélenchon include a 100% income tax on earnings over €360,000 a year,
What on Earth in your uncharacteristically long winded post is evidence that Putin supports Melenchon? It's merely evidence Melenchon is a lefty. We know that. You choose the Putinite over the Lefty. We know that too.
JLM is even more pro Putin than Le Pen, I doubt he would be that upset.
Though still looks like Le Pen will narrowly get second place, currently she leads Melenchon by 0.8%
No he isn't. His opponents claim he is. He deniea it. Le Pen luxuriated in her closeness to Vlad. Until very recently. Black isn't white.
Melenchon wants to withdraw France from NATO, a huge boost for Putin
A France outside NATO under Melenchon would be hugely better for NATO than a Putin supporting President inside it. Get real. There'll be champagne flowing in Moscow if Le Pen wins. And you know it.
Sorry? The actual break up of NATO is better than France adopting a Gaullist position inside NATO?
What fucking nonsense. You just can't cope with the fact your own logic points you towards a Le Pen vote, in that thought experiment
No it didn't. The very next sentences tells you this:
"France remained a member of the alliance and committed to the defense of Europe from possible Warsaw Pact attack with its own forces stationed in West Germany throughout the Cold War. A series of secret accords between the US and French officials, the Lemnitzer–Ailleret Agreements, detailed how French forces would dovetail back into NATO's command structure if East-West hostilities broke out"
It was just Gaullist posturing. Le Pen has said she will do exactly the same as De Gaulle
Melenchon would actually withdraw in toto and in fact
Right now, it looks like a narrow Macron victory in the second round.
But Le Pen could pull it off, especially if she performs well in the debate on the 20th.
When we hear Le Pen, do we think of the extreme unelectable party of her father?
But has both her repositioning/makeover to centre, and the electorates drift towards Wanting tighter immigration and EU scepticism (spanning left to right) means many French voters today, particularly former LR ones, see her differently than the PB consensus of what she stands for? Add to that the centrist candidate is filthy rich with a programme of reforms that will hurt the working poor even more right now? I not saying Macron’s reform or domestic programme is wrong, only when you enter a campaign be judicious and in tune with the electorate. Macron has entered this race distracted by international politics, on a platform handing voters to Le Pen he can I’ll afford to do?
Why call it a shock result in French election if she wins?
I’d buy a lot of that except for the Putinist elephant in the room. She may not be her father, but she is friendly with, an apologist for, and at one time funded by Putin. And she likes Trump.
A MLP win would be a major Russian victory.
Yes. @leon tried to goad folk into admitting they'd favour Le Pen over Melenchon. Not me. Choosing the candidate Putin doesn't want is most important right now. I'm surprised how many fervent pro-Ukrainians anti-Putiners are so ambivalent.
Putin would probably prefer Melenchon to Le Pen
So bang goes your theory
Good to get some insight from someone who really knows who Putin would prefer.
Right now, it looks like a narrow Macron victory in the second round.
But Le Pen could pull it off, especially if she performs well in the debate on the 20th.
When we hear Le Pen, do we think of the extreme unelectable party of her father?
But has both her repositioning/makeover to centre, and the electorates drift towards Wanting tighter immigration and EU scepticism (spanning left to right) means many French voters today, particularly former LR ones, see her differently than the PB consensus of what she stands for? Add to that the centrist candidate is filthy rich with a programme of reforms that will hurt the working poor even more right now? I not saying Macron’s reform or domestic programme is wrong, only when you enter a campaign be judicious and in tune with the electorate. Macron has entered this race distracted by international politics, on a platform handing voters to Le Pen he can I’ll afford to do?
Why call it a shock result in French election if she wins?
I’d buy a lot of that except for the Putinist elephant in the room. She may not be her father, but she is friendly with, an apologist for, and at one time funded by Putin. And she likes Trump.
A MLP win would be a major Russian victory.
Yes. @leon tried to goad folk into admitting they'd favour Le Pen over Melenchon. Not me. Choosing the candidate Putin doesn't want is most important right now. I'm surprised how many fervent pro-Ukrainians anti-Putiners are so ambivalent.
Putin would probably prefer Melenchon to Le Pen
So bang goes your theory
Absolute bollocks.
Putin wants anything that sows confusion and division. Melenchon is a mad Corbynite left winger who approves of Venezuela. He also has a more extreme position on NATO - total withdrawal - than Le Pen. He is also anti-EU
"Jean-Luc Mélenchon, presidential candidate of radical left party La France Insoumise, hopes to push member countries to break away from EU treaties “that block us” if he wins the election in April. EURACTIV France reports.
If he fails to find support among the EU27, Mélenchon, known for his no-holds-barred discourse, said he will just disregard EU rules that go against his programme."
I'm sorry if this discomforts you, but in a forced choice, if your intention is to make sure Putin does not get his preference, you should choose Le Pen over Melenchon.
Melenchon would also fuck the French economy
8] Domestic policies proposed by Mélenchon include a 100% income tax on earnings over €360,000 a year,
Le Pen’s economc policies are equally as insane. Neither would be able to enact them as neither would secure majorities in the Assembly elections. Having an avowed Putin supporter inside NATO with full access to all NATO plans and the ability to veto them would be of massive benefit to him.
It's touch and go for Macron. Remember she'll get the majority of Zemmour and Dupont-Aignon's vote.
It would be interesting to know what (a) the expected abstention rates were immediately after the first round last time, and (b) what they ever up being.
Good question. Here's a poll from the day of the first round last time:
The bit of the chart that *really* stands out there is that a large number of first round abstentions went for Macron in the second round last time.
Although that’s what people said they were going to do so it needs to be cross referenced with what actually happened. I know that turnout was down in the second round and 3 million people voted for none of the above.
That chart shows exactly that: i.e. turnout meaningfully down if you look at Macron and Le Pen compared to the candidates previous votes, and with a surprising number of abstentions voting in the second round.
Good point. So the question is whether that kind of voter will be motivated to get out to vote for him a second time. If they were “stop Le Pen” voters, perhaps she’s done enough to detoxify herself for them not to bother.
Exactly.
It would be really interesting to compare her favourable/unfavourable in 2017 to now. My guess is that she's improved markedly, but at -29, she's still too negative to win. This time.
JLM is even more pro Putin than Le Pen, I doubt he would be that upset.
Though still looks like Le Pen will narrowly get second place, currently she leads Melenchon by 0.8%
No he isn't. His opponents claim he is. He deniea it. Le Pen luxuriated in her closeness to Vlad. Until very recently. Black isn't white.
Melenchon wants to withdraw France from NATO, a huge boost for Putin
A France outside NATO under Melenchon would be hugely better for NATO than a Putin supporting President inside it. Get real. There'll be champagne flowing in Moscow if Le Pen wins. And you know it.
Sorry? The actual break up of NATO is better than France adopting a Gaullist position inside NATO?
What fucking nonsense. You just can't cope with the fact your own logic points you towards a Le Pen vote, in that thought experiment
Nope. Bollocks again. Putinite over lefty. That's your stance.
Right now, it looks like a narrow Macron victory in the second round.
But Le Pen could pull it off, especially if she performs well in the debate on the 20th.
When we hear Le Pen, do we think of the extreme unelectable party of her father?
But has both her repositioning/makeover to centre, and the electorates drift towards Wanting tighter immigration and EU scepticism (spanning left to right) means many French voters today, particularly former LR ones, see her differently than the PB consensus of what she stands for? Add to that the centrist candidate is filthy rich with a programme of reforms that will hurt the working poor even more right now? I not saying Macron’s reform or domestic programme is wrong, only when you enter a campaign be judicious and in tune with the electorate. Macron has entered this race distracted by international politics, on a platform handing voters to Le Pen he can I’ll afford to do?
Why call it a shock result in French election if she wins?
I’d buy a lot of that except for the Putinist elephant in the room. She may not be her father, but she is friendly with, an apologist for, and at one time funded by Putin. And she likes Trump.
A MLP win would be a major Russian victory.
Yes. @leon tried to goad folk into admitting they'd favour Le Pen over Melenchon. Not me. Choosing the candidate Putin doesn't want is most important right now. I'm surprised how many fervent pro-Ukrainians anti-Putiners are so ambivalent.
Putin would probably prefer Melenchon to Le Pen
So bang goes your theory
Good to get some insight from someone who really knows who Putin would prefer.
I'm just going by what Alex Salmond, your SNP hero leader says, on his Russia Today programme
It's touch and go for Macron. Remember she'll get the majority of Zemmour and Dupont-Aignon's vote.
It would be interesting to know what (a) the expected abstention rates were immediately after the first round last time, and (b) what they ever up being.
Good question. Here's a poll from the day of the first round last time:
The bit of the chart that *really* stands out there is that a large number of first round abstentions went for Macron in the second round last time.
Although that’s what people said they were going to do so it needs to be cross referenced with what actually happened. I know that turnout was down in the second round and 3 million people voted for none of the above.
That chart shows exactly that: i.e. turnout meaningfully down if you look at Macron and Le Pen compared to the candidates previous votes, and with a surprising number of abstentions voting in the second round.
Good point. So the question is whether that kind of voter will be motivated to get out to vote for him a second time. If they were “stop Le Pen” voters, perhaps she’s done enough to detoxify herself for them not to bother.
And the carrot (Macron) is less appetising after 5 years of dangling.
It's touch and go for Macron. Remember she'll get the majority of Zemmour and Dupont-Aignon's vote.
It would be interesting to know what (a) the expected abstention rates were immediately after the first round last time, and (b) what they ever up being.
Good question. Here's a poll from the day of the first round last time:
The bit of the chart that *really* stands out there is that a large number of first round abstentions went for Macron in the second round last time.
Large like a game changer? It’s not small fry, but is it really large on that chart, not as large compared to the 1st round Fillion supporters and Melenchon supporters going to Macron last time. And would Macron get all that first round abstention this time, or more likely, eaten it already this time with three quarters of LR support already no longer in his larder?
In the context of polls that are 48-52 (or thereabouts), they are potentially a game changer. They're (possibly) the difference between Le Pen having a real shout, and it being pretty much outside her grasp.
Right now, it looks like a narrow Macron victory in the second round.
But Le Pen could pull it off, especially if she performs well in the debate on the 20th.
When we hear Le Pen, do we think of the extreme unelectable party of her father?
But has both her repositioning/makeover to centre, and the electorates drift towards Wanting tighter immigration and EU scepticism (spanning left to right) means many French voters today, particularly former LR ones, see her differently than the PB consensus of what she stands for? Add to that the centrist candidate is filthy rich with a programme of reforms that will hurt the working poor even more right now? I not saying Macron’s reform or domestic programme is wrong, only when you enter a campaign be judicious and in tune with the electorate. Macron has entered this race distracted by international politics, on a platform handing voters to Le Pen he can I’ll afford to do?
Why call it a shock result in French election if she wins?
I’d buy a lot of that except for the Putinist elephant in the room. She may not be her father, but she is friendly with, an apologist for, and at one time funded by Putin. And she likes Trump.
A MLP win would be a major Russian victory.
Yes. @leon tried to goad folk into admitting they'd favour Le Pen over Melenchon. Not me. Choosing the candidate Putin doesn't want is most important right now. I'm surprised how many fervent pro-Ukrainians anti-Putiners are so ambivalent.
Putin would probably prefer Melenchon to Le Pen
So bang goes your theory
Good to get some insight from someone who really knows who Putin would prefer.
I'm just going by what Alex Salmond, your SNP hero leader says, on his Russia Today programme
Right now, it looks like a narrow Macron victory in the second round.
But Le Pen could pull it off, especially if she performs well in the debate on the 20th.
When we hear Le Pen, do we think of the extreme unelectable party of her father?
But has both her repositioning/makeover to centre, and the electorates drift towards Wanting tighter immigration and EU scepticism (spanning left to right) means many French voters today, particularly former LR ones, see her differently than the PB consensus of what she stands for? Add to that the centrist candidate is filthy rich with a programme of reforms that will hurt the working poor even more right now? I not saying Macron’s reform or domestic programme is wrong, only when you enter a campaign be judicious and in tune with the electorate. Macron has entered this race distracted by international politics, on a platform handing voters to Le Pen he can I’ll afford to do?
Why call it a shock result in French election if she wins?
I’d buy a lot of that except for the Putinist elephant in the room. She may not be her father, but she is friendly with, an apologist for, and at one time funded by Putin. And she likes Trump.
A MLP win would be a major Russian victory.
I agree. I can’t imagine voting for Le Pen for many reasons, not least closeness to Putin. And not least she comes across a bit crap, and clueless as a politician. It won’t be any good for things I believe in, or the UK.
Though, when people talk up her “closeness” to Putin, has her Party accepted as much Putin money as the UK Tory Party? Up until this war, and despite his previous crimes, Putin money and cronies were at home in London and our political lobby, we’re they not?
When the next UK General Election kicks off, will there be fireworks about how close the UK Tory party were pre war to Putin apologists and money?
JLM is even more pro Putin than Le Pen, I doubt he would be that upset.
Though still looks like Le Pen will narrowly get second place, currently she leads Melenchon by 0.8%
No he isn't. His opponents claim he is. He deniea it. Le Pen luxuriated in her closeness to Vlad. Until very recently. Black isn't white.
Melenchon wants to withdraw France from NATO, a huge boost for Putin
A France outside NATO under Melenchon would be hugely better for NATO than a Putin supporting President inside it. Get real. There'll be champagne flowing in Moscow if Le Pen wins. And you know it.
Sorry? The actual break up of NATO is better than France adopting a Gaullist position inside NATO?
What fucking nonsense. You just can't cope with the fact your own logic points you towards a Le Pen vote, in that thought experiment
No it didn't. The very next sentences tells you this:
"France remained a member of the alliance and committed to the defense of Europe from possible Warsaw Pact attack with its own forces stationed in West Germany throughout the Cold War. A series of secret accords between the US and French officials, the Lemnitzer–Ailleret Agreements, detailed how French forces would dovetail back into NATO's command structure if East-West hostilities broke out"
It was just Gaullist posturing. Le Pen has said she will do exactly the same as De Gaulle
Melenchon would actually withdraw in toto and in fact
Yeah, but if I just go in and edit Wikipedia, I can make it say that I'M RIGHT.
Right now, it looks like a narrow Macron victory in the second round.
But Le Pen could pull it off, especially if she performs well in the debate on the 20th.
When we hear Le Pen, do we think of the extreme unelectable party of her father?
But has both her repositioning/makeover to centre, and the electorates drift towards Wanting tighter immigration and EU scepticism (spanning left to right) means many French voters today, particularly former LR ones, see her differently than the PB consensus of what she stands for? Add to that the centrist candidate is filthy rich with a programme of reforms that will hurt the working poor even more right now? I not saying Macron’s reform or domestic programme is wrong, only when you enter a campaign be judicious and in tune with the electorate. Macron has entered this race distracted by international politics, on a platform handing voters to Le Pen he can I’ll afford to do?
Why call it a shock result in French election if she wins?
I’d buy a lot of that except for the Putinist elephant in the room. She may not be her father, but she is friendly with, an apologist for, and at one time funded by Putin. And she likes Trump.
A MLP win would be a major Russian victory.
Yes. @leon tried to goad folk into admitting they'd favour Le Pen over Melenchon. Not me. Choosing the candidate Putin doesn't want is most important right now. I'm surprised how many fervent pro-Ukrainians anti-Putiners are so ambivalent.
Putin would probably prefer Melenchon to Le Pen
So bang goes your theory
Absolute bollocks.
Putin wants anything that sows confusion and division. Melenchon is a mad Corbynite left winger who approves of Venezuela. He also has a more extreme position on NATO - total withdrawal - than Le Pen. He is also anti-EU
"Jean-Luc Mélenchon, presidential candidate of radical left party La France Insoumise, hopes to push member countries to break away from EU treaties “that block us” if he wins the election in April. EURACTIV France reports.
If he fails to find support among the EU27, Mélenchon, known for his no-holds-barred discourse, said he will just disregard EU rules that go against his programme."
I'm sorry if this discomforts you, but in a forced choice, if your intention is to make sure Putin does not get his preference, you should choose Le Pen over Melenchon.
Melenchon would also fuck the French economy
8] Domestic policies proposed by Mélenchon include a 100% income tax on earnings over €360,000 a year,
Le Pen’s economc policies are equally as insane. Neither would be able to enact them as neither would secure majorities in the Assembly elections. Having an avowed Putin supporter inside NATO with full access to all NATO plans and the ability to veto them would be of massive benefit to him.
Show me where Le Pen supports a 100% income tax on people over €360k per annum
Right now, it looks like a narrow Macron victory in the second round.
But Le Pen could pull it off, especially if she performs well in the debate on the 20th.
When we hear Le Pen, do we think of the extreme unelectable party of her father?
But has both her repositioning/makeover to centre, and the electorates drift towards Wanting tighter immigration and EU scepticism (spanning left to right) means many French voters today, particularly former LR ones, see her differently than the PB consensus of what she stands for? Add to that the centrist candidate is filthy rich with a programme of reforms that will hurt the working poor even more right now? I not saying Macron’s reform or domestic programme is wrong, only when you enter a campaign be judicious and in tune with the electorate. Macron has entered this race distracted by international politics, on a platform handing voters to Le Pen he can I’ll afford to do?
Why call it a shock result in French election if she wins?
I’d buy a lot of that except for the Putinist elephant in the room. She may not be her father, but she is friendly with, an apologist for, and at one time funded by Putin. And she likes Trump.
A MLP win would be a major Russian victory.
Yes. @leon tried to goad folk into admitting they'd favour Le Pen over Melenchon. Not me. Choosing the candidate Putin doesn't want is most important right now. I'm surprised how many fervent pro-Ukrainians anti-Putiners are so ambivalent.
Putin would probably prefer Melenchon to Le Pen
So bang goes your theory
Good to get some insight from someone who really knows who Putin would prefer.
I'm just going by what Alex Salmond your SNP hero leader says, on his Russia Today programme
One of your pishier retorts. Don’t think I said Salmond was the greatest pm the UK never had.
Right now, it looks like a narrow Macron victory in the second round.
But Le Pen could pull it off, especially if she performs well in the debate on the 20th.
When we hear Le Pen, do we think of the extreme unelectable party of her father?
But has both her repositioning/makeover to centre, and the electorates drift towards Wanting tighter immigration and EU scepticism (spanning left to right) means many French voters today, particularly former LR ones, see her differently than the PB consensus of what she stands for? Add to that the centrist candidate is filthy rich with a programme of reforms that will hurt the working poor even more right now? I not saying Macron’s reform or domestic programme is wrong, only when you enter a campaign be judicious and in tune with the electorate. Macron has entered this race distracted by international politics, on a platform handing voters to Le Pen he can I’ll afford to do?
Why call it a shock result in French election if she wins?
I’d buy a lot of that except for the Putinist elephant in the room. She may not be her father, but she is friendly with, an apologist for, and at one time funded by Putin. And she likes Trump.
A MLP win would be a major Russian victory.
Yes. @leon tried to goad folk into admitting they'd favour Le Pen over Melenchon. Not me. Choosing the candidate Putin doesn't want is most important right now. I'm surprised how many fervent pro-Ukrainians anti-Putiners are so ambivalent.
Putin would probably prefer Melenchon to Le Pen
So bang goes your theory
Absolute bollocks.
Putin wants anything that sows confusion and division. Melenchon is a mad Corbynite left winger who approves of Venezuela. He also has a more extreme position on NATO - total withdrawal - than Le Pen. He is also anti-EU
"Jean-Luc Mélenchon, presidential candidate of radical left party La France Insoumise, hopes to push member countries to break away from EU treaties “that block us” if he wins the election in April. EURACTIV France reports.
If he fails to find support among the EU27, Mélenchon, known for his no-holds-barred discourse, said he will just disregard EU rules that go against his programme."
I'm sorry if this discomforts you, but in a forced choice, if your intention is to make sure Putin does not get his preference, you should choose Le Pen over Melenchon.
Melenchon would also fuck the French economy
8] Domestic policies proposed by Mélenchon include a 100% income tax on earnings over €360,000 a year,
Le Pen’s economc policies are equally as insane. Neither would be able to enact them as neither would secure majorities in the Assembly elections. Having an avowed Putin supporter inside NATO with full access to all NATO plans and the ability to veto them would be of massive benefit to him.
Show me where Le Pen supports a 100% income tax on people over €360k per annum
"So, @Leon, what's your favourite STD? Mine's syphilis, but I understand you've got a bit of a soft spot for herpes."
JLM is even more pro Putin than Le Pen, I doubt he would be that upset.
Though still looks like Le Pen will narrowly get second place, currently she leads Melenchon by 0.8%
No he isn't. His opponents claim he is. He deniea it. Le Pen luxuriated in her closeness to Vlad. Until very recently. Black isn't white.
Melenchon wants to withdraw France from NATO, a huge boost for Putin
A France outside NATO under Melenchon would be hugely better for NATO than a Putin supporting President inside it. Get real. There'll be champagne flowing in Moscow if Le Pen wins. And you know it.
Sorry? The actual break up of NATO is better than France adopting a Gaullist position inside NATO?
What fucking nonsense. You just can't cope with the fact your own logic points you towards a Le Pen vote, in that thought experiment
No it didn't. The very next sentences tells you this:
"France remained a member of the alliance and committed to the defense of Europe from possible Warsaw Pact attack with its own forces stationed in West Germany throughout the Cold War. A series of secret accords between the US and French officials, the Lemnitzer–Ailleret Agreements, detailed how French forces would dovetail back into NATO's command structure if East-West hostilities broke out"
It was just Gaullist posturing. Le Pen has said she will do exactly the same as De Gaulle
Melenchon would actually withdraw in toto and in fact
Yeah, but if I just go in and edit Wikipedia, I can make it say that I'M RIGHT.
JLM is even more pro Putin than Le Pen, I doubt he would be that upset.
Though still looks like Le Pen will narrowly get second place, currently she leads Melenchon by 0.8%
No he isn't. His opponents claim he is. He deniea it. Le Pen luxuriated in her closeness to Vlad. Until very recently. Black isn't white.
Melenchon wants to withdraw France from NATO, a huge boost for Putin
A France outside NATO under Melenchon would be hugely better for NATO than a Putin supporting President inside it. Get real. There'll be champagne flowing in Moscow if Le Pen wins. And you know it.
Sorry? The actual break up of NATO is better than France adopting a Gaullist position inside NATO?
What fucking nonsense. You just can't cope with the fact your own logic points you towards a Le Pen vote, in that thought experiment
Nope. Bollocks again. Putinite over lefty. That's your stance.
It's more complex than that, c'mon!
Look at the UK. We have the Tories accepting huge Russian donations v Corbyn, the impassioned defender of the oppressed.
On the face of it, who would be Putin's candidate? And yet.
Right now, it looks like a narrow Macron victory in the second round.
But Le Pen could pull it off, especially if she performs well in the debate on the 20th.
When we hear Le Pen, do we think of the extreme unelectable party of her father?
But has both her repositioning/makeover to centre, and the electorates drift towards Wanting tighter immigration and EU scepticism (spanning left to right) means many French voters today, particularly former LR ones, see her differently than the PB consensus of what she stands for? Add to that the centrist candidate is filthy rich with a programme of reforms that will hurt the working poor even more right now? I not saying Macron’s reform or domestic programme is wrong, only when you enter a campaign be judicious and in tune with the electorate. Macron has entered this race distracted by international politics, on a platform handing voters to Le Pen he can I’ll afford to do?
Why call it a shock result in French election if she wins?
I’d buy a lot of that except for the Putinist elephant in the room. She may not be her father, but she is friendly with, an apologist for, and at one time funded by Putin. And she likes Trump.
A MLP win would be a major Russian victory.
Yes. @leon tried to goad folk into admitting they'd favour Le Pen over Melenchon. Not me. Choosing the candidate Putin doesn't want is most important right now. I'm surprised how many fervent pro-Ukrainians anti-Putiners are so ambivalent.
Putin would probably prefer Melenchon to Le Pen
So bang goes your theory
Absolute bollocks.
Putin wants anything that sows confusion and division. Melenchon is a mad Corbynite left winger who approves of Venezuela. He also has a more extreme position on NATO - total withdrawal - than Le Pen. He is also anti-EU
"Jean-Luc Mélenchon, presidential candidate of radical left party La France Insoumise, hopes to push member countries to break away from EU treaties “that block us” if he wins the election in April. EURACTIV France reports.
If he fails to find support among the EU27, Mélenchon, known for his no-holds-barred discourse, said he will just disregard EU rules that go against his programme."
I'm sorry if this discomforts you, but in a forced choice, if your intention is to make sure Putin does not get his preference, you should choose Le Pen over Melenchon.
Melenchon would also fuck the French economy
8] Domestic policies proposed by Mélenchon include a 100% income tax on earnings over €360,000 a year,
Le Pen’s economc policies are equally as insane. Neither would be able to enact them as neither would secure majorities in the Assembly elections. Having an avowed Putin supporter inside NATO with full access to all NATO plans and the ability to veto them would be of massive benefit to him.
Show me where Le Pen supports a 100% income tax on people over €360k per annum
"So, @Leon, what's your favourite STD? Mine's syphilis, but I understand you've got a bit of a soft spot for herpes."
I accept my thought experiment means an unpleasant choice, but it's not like I'm saying Would you prefer to be governed by Stalin or Hitler, ie a choice you might get in a parallel universe
Le Pen and Melenchon have just come 2nd and 3rd in the 1st round, not far behind Macron, so a 2nd round between them was far from impossible
Anyway enough, the experiment has run its course.
Le Pen is now 4/1, I think that is about right, at this stage
Right now, it looks like a narrow Macron victory in the second round.
But Le Pen could pull it off, especially if she performs well in the debate on the 20th.
When we hear Le Pen, do we think of the extreme unelectable party of her father?
But has both her repositioning/makeover to centre, and the electorates drift towards Wanting tighter immigration and EU scepticism (spanning left to right) means many French voters today, particularly former LR ones, see her differently than the PB consensus of what she stands for? Add to that the centrist candidate is filthy rich with a programme of reforms that will hurt the working poor even more right now? I not saying Macron’s reform or domestic programme is wrong, only when you enter a campaign be judicious and in tune with the electorate. Macron has entered this race distracted by international politics, on a platform handing voters to Le Pen he can I’ll afford to do?
Why call it a shock result in French election if she wins?
I’d buy a lot of that except for the Putinist elephant in the room. She may not be her father, but she is friendly with, an apologist for, and at one time funded by Putin. And she likes Trump.
A MLP win would be a major Russian victory.
Yes. @leon tried to goad folk into admitting they'd favour Le Pen over Melenchon. Not me. Choosing the candidate Putin doesn't want is most important right now. I'm surprised how many fervent pro-Ukrainians anti-Putiners are so ambivalent.
Putin would probably prefer Melenchon to Le Pen
So bang goes your theory
Absolute bollocks.
Putin wants anything that sows confusion and division. Melenchon is a mad Corbynite left winger who approves of Venezuela. He also has a more extreme position on NATO - total withdrawal - than Le Pen. He is also anti-EU
"Jean-Luc Mélenchon, presidential candidate of radical left party La France Insoumise, hopes to push member countries to break away from EU treaties “that block us” if he wins the election in April. EURACTIV France reports.
If he fails to find support among the EU27, Mélenchon, known for his no-holds-barred discourse, said he will just disregard EU rules that go against his programme."
I'm sorry if this discomforts you, but in a forced choice, if your intention is to make sure Putin does not get his preference, you should choose Le Pen over Melenchon.
Melenchon would also fuck the French economy
8] Domestic policies proposed by Mélenchon include a 100% income tax on earnings over €360,000 a year,
Le Pen’s economc policies are equally as insane. Neither would be able to enact them as neither would secure majorities in the Assembly elections. Having an avowed Putin supporter inside NATO with full access to all NATO plans and the ability to veto them would be of massive benefit to him.
Show me where Le Pen supports a 100% income tax on people over €360k per annum
When she’s proposing higher public spending, higher incomes and lower taxes the detail is irrelevant. It’s just as insane, but in different ways. However, as I say, neither Melenchon nor Le Pen would ever be in a position to enact their economic policies as they’d never get the Assembly majority they need.
Although Le Pen has avoided being harmed by her Putin baggage during the first round the game changes now with just two candidates .
I expect fireworks in the debate .
From Macron and Le Pen? The debate was take a book to read event last time. Neither of them could debate their way through a lettuce leaf.
Also of course, do the French electorate agree with you In wanting Macron to debate on the international not the domestic, or is that precisely the approach that drops him into trouble?
I watched that debate and Le Pen was poor .
The biggest problem for Le Pen is Le Pen ! She can try and look all warm and cuddly but older people tend to be less forgiving of her past and her family connections .
Given the importance of the older voter in terms of turnout the odds are stacked against her although she will do better than last time .
Part of me would like Le Pen to win, just to watch the panic unfold about how the 'far right' are taking over Europe.
In fact... it isn't the 'far' right, it is just the views of a sizeable minority of people - probably about 45% of France... and if they don't win this time, they will be in an even stronger position next time.
It would be better to refer to these movements as the 'popular right'... but the whole point of democracy, is that peoples voices should be heard. And the great problem with the progressive establishment, is that they are making the same errors over and over again, not taking people like Le Pen and the deplorables who vote for her, seriously.
JLM is even more pro Putin than Le Pen, I doubt he would be that upset.
Though still looks like Le Pen will narrowly get second place, currently she leads Melenchon by 0.8%
No he isn't. His opponents claim he is. He deniea it. Le Pen luxuriated in her closeness to Vlad. Until very recently. Black isn't white.
Melenchon wants to withdraw France from NATO, a huge boost for Putin
A France outside NATO under Melenchon would be hugely better for NATO than a Putin supporting President inside it. Get real. There'll be champagne flowing in Moscow if Le Pen wins. And you know it.
Sorry? The actual break up of NATO is better than France adopting a Gaullist position inside NATO?
What fucking nonsense. You just can't cope with the fact your own logic points you towards a Le Pen vote, in that thought experiment
Nope. Bollocks again. Putinite over lefty. That's your stance.
It's more complex than that, c'mon!
Look at the UK. We have the Tories accepting huge Russian donations v Corbyn, the impassioned defender of the oppressed.
On the face of it, who would be Putin's candidate? And yet.
JLM is even more pro Putin than Le Pen, I doubt he would be that upset.
Though still looks like Le Pen will narrowly get second place, currently she leads Melenchon by 0.8%
No he isn't. His opponents claim he is. He deniea it. Le Pen luxuriated in her closeness to Vlad. Until very recently. Black isn't white.
Melenchon wants to withdraw France from NATO, a huge boost for Putin
A France outside NATO under Melenchon would be hugely better for NATO than a Putin supporting President inside it. Get real. There'll be champagne flowing in Moscow if Le Pen wins. And you know it.
Sorry? The actual break up of NATO is better than France adopting a Gaullist position inside NATO?
What fucking nonsense. You just can't cope with the fact your own logic points you towards a Le Pen vote, in that thought experiment
It's touch and go for Macron. Remember she'll get the majority of Zemmour and Dupont-Aignon's vote.
It would be interesting to know what (a) the expected abstention rates were immediately after the first round last time, and (b) what they ever up being.
Good question. Here's a poll from the day of the first round last time:
The bit of the chart that *really* stands out there is that a large number of first round abstentions went for Macron in the second round last time.
Although that’s what people said they were going to do so it needs to be cross referenced with what actually happened. I know that turnout was down in the second round and 3 million people voted for none of the above.
That chart shows exactly that: i.e. turnout meaningfully down if you look at Macron and Le Pen compared to the candidates previous votes, and with a surprising number of abstentions voting in the second round.
Good point. So the question is whether that kind of voter will be motivated to get out to vote for him a second time. If they were “stop Le Pen” voters, perhaps she’s done enough to detoxify herself for them not to bother.
Exactly.
It would be really interesting to compare her favourable/unfavourable in 2017 to now. My guess is that she's improved markedly, but at -29, she's still too negative to win. This time.
You are sounding very certain she can’t win, in a very tight and very fluid situation. We have though looked closely at this question in UK politics recently, I recall a header from Mike saying it depends what question is asked, how the satisfaction ratings calculated differently between pollsters.
What you are saying Robert, Le pen can’t win at -29, what hope for Boris Johnson at -47?
Isn’t French politics special place where no one is ever favoured very positively in satisfaction ratings, even the comfortable winners?
Part of me would like Le Pen to win, just to watch the panic unfold about how the 'far right' are taking over Europe.
In fact... it isn't the 'far' right, it is just the views of a sizeable minority of people - probably about 45% of France... and if they don't win this time, they will be in an even stronger position next time.
It would be better to refer to these movements as the 'popular right'... but the whole point of democracy, is that peoples voices should be heard. And the great problem with the progressive establishment, is that they are making the same errors over and over again, not taking people like Le Pen and the deplorables who vote for her, seriously.
I think she'll get a bit more than 45%. Probably 47-48%.
Centre-right: 20.0% to 4.7%. Centre-left: 6.4% to 1.8%.
Roger please explain.
My message has been at first glance it looks like little has changed, but look closer and the electorate are a heck of a lot more… To the right? Hating the establishment even more? Even more anti EU? Even more anti immigration? Even more unhappy in how cost of living crisis, taxation and fairness in general is being handled by Macron?
Take green as an example. Someone in a yellow jacket protesting about fuel prices and fuel tax should not necessarily be thought of as anti-green, it simply shows green agenda’s cannot be rolled out without tax fairness and social justice at the same time.
Your original prediction was that Macron didn't get into the final two. The odds were so huge and you seemed so convinced I put everything I had on it........
I'm now selling the Big Issue on Tottenham Court Road.
(But at least it's not raining)
No Roger. My original prediction was Mélenchon makes top two - whoever however with Macron in top two beats him in round two.
My bet on Melenchon coming second was proved wrong. Yes. He got up to 20, but Zemmour iceberg melting into Le Pens slushy cocktail cost me.
A 12 for Zemmour could have been a 19 for Le Pen. Likewise a 12 from Pecresse could have been a 23% for Macron.
I called round 1 wrong and lost my bet because how the Pecresse and Zemmour fell more than I anticipated.
Macron gobbled “pecresse” votes up after first round last time, not during it. In the bigger picture He’s actually down not up, meanwhile Le Pen + Zemmour is 30%. Because the electorate has clearly moved in 5 years.
You admit it’s a different electorate this time?
To you have any inside knowledge or evidence for these wild predictions?
Well my wild prediction is actually by taking the Le Pen and Zemmour actual vote % off the errrrr mainstream TV channel in front of me and added together they work out as 30%.
You are aware there is a French General Election going on tonight Roger?
Yes I am aware. What gives you the idea that a majority of the French are anti EU?
JLM is even more pro Putin than Le Pen, I doubt he would be that upset.
Though still looks like Le Pen will narrowly get second place, currently she leads Melenchon by 0.8%
No he isn't. His opponents claim he is. He deniea it. Le Pen luxuriated in her closeness to Vlad. Until very recently. Black isn't white.
Melenchon wants to withdraw France from NATO, a huge boost for Putin
A France outside NATO under Melenchon would be hugely better for NATO than a Putin supporting President inside it. Get real. There'll be champagne flowing in Moscow if Le Pen wins. And you know it.
Sorry? The actual break up of NATO is better than France adopting a Gaullist position inside NATO?
What fucking nonsense. You just can't cope with the fact your own logic points you towards a Le Pen vote, in that thought experiment
Nope. Bollocks again. Putinite over lefty. That's your stance.
It's more complex than that, c'mon!
Look at the UK. We have the Tories accepting huge Russian donations v Corbyn, the impassioned defender of the oppressed.
On the face of it, who would be Putin's candidate? And yet.
And to extend to home turf: the SNP are undoubtedly (particularly under Sturgeon) anti everything Putin represents.
Yet their primary goal would undermine the prime military power in Europe.
JLM is even more pro Putin than Le Pen, I doubt he would be that upset.
Though still looks like Le Pen will narrowly get second place, currently she leads Melenchon by 0.8%
No he isn't. His opponents claim he is. He deniea it. Le Pen luxuriated in her closeness to Vlad. Until very recently. Black isn't white.
Melenchon wants to withdraw France from NATO, a huge boost for Putin
A France outside NATO under Melenchon would be hugely better for NATO than a Putin supporting President inside it. Get real. There'll be champagne flowing in Moscow if Le Pen wins. And you know it.
Sorry? The actual break up of NATO is better than France adopting a Gaullist position inside NATO?
What fucking nonsense. You just can't cope with the fact your own logic points you towards a Le Pen vote, in that thought experiment
Nope. Bollocks again. Putinite over lefty. That's your stance.
It's more complex than that, c'mon!
Look at the UK. We have the Tories accepting huge Russian donations v Corbyn, the impassioned defender of the oppressed.
On the face of it, who would be Putin's candidate? And yet.
Well. Who is Putin's candidate?
I think the guy who questioned the Salisbury attack, over the other one sending thousands of anti-tank guns to Ukraine.
Although Le Pen has avoided being harmed by her Putin baggage during the first round the game changes now with just two candidates .
I expect fireworks in the debate .
From Macron and Le Pen? The debate was take a book to read event last time. Neither of them could debate their way through a lettuce leaf.
Also of course, do the French electorate agree with you In wanting Macron to debate on the international not the domestic, or is that precisely the approach that drops him into trouble?
Actually, that's quite an interesting experiment, too
If forced to choose, would you prefer to be governed by Stalin or Hitler?
Hitler certainly had his faults, let it be said loud and clear - after all, everyone has feet of clay - but as long as you weren't Jewish, disabled, gay, communist, socialist, mentally deficient, Roma, or into modern art, you had an OK life under him, at least in peacetime. Autobahns! Volkswagens!
EVERYONE had a shit time under Stalin, up to and including members of Stalin's own family. And yet Hitler always gets the bad press, the endless sniping from moaning minnies and lefty critics.
JLM is even more pro Putin than Le Pen, I doubt he would be that upset.
Though still looks like Le Pen will narrowly get second place, currently she leads Melenchon by 0.8%
No he isn't. His opponents claim he is. He deniea it. Le Pen luxuriated in her closeness to Vlad. Until very recently. Black isn't white.
Melenchon wants to withdraw France from NATO, a huge boost for Putin
A France outside NATO under Melenchon would be hugely better for NATO than a Putin supporting President inside it. Get real. There'll be champagne flowing in Moscow if Le Pen wins. And you know it.
Sorry? The actual break up of NATO is better than France adopting a Gaullist position inside NATO?
What fucking nonsense. You just can't cope with the fact your own logic points you towards a Le Pen vote, in that thought experiment
Nope. Bollocks again. Putinite over lefty. That's your stance.
It's more complex than that, c'mon!
Look at the UK. We have the Tories accepting huge Russian donations v Corbyn, the impassioned defender of the oppressed.
On the face of it, who would be Putin's candidate? And yet.
Well. Who is Putin's candidate?
The answer is pretty straightforward. It works via a lobby system, not actually how much money has he given over but how much influence has Putin got for his ruble. Have any French politician ennobled Putin apologists, allowed them infrastructure contracts, media ownership or to own football clubs? That’s the way to calculate Putin’s candidates.
Actually, that's quite an interesting experiment, too
If forced to choose, would you prefer to be governed by Stalin or Hitler?
Hitler certainly had his faults, let it be said loud and clear - after all, everyone has feet of clay - but as long as you weren't Jewish, disabled, gay, communist, socialist, mentally deficient, Roma, or into modern art, you had an OK life under him, at least in peacetime. Autobahns! Volkswagens!
EVERYONE had a shit time under Stalin, up to and including members of Stalin's own family. And yet Hitler always gets the bad press, the endless sniping from moaning minnies and lefty critics.
Pecresse is less than 1/2% ahead of Jadot. Who'd have seen that? The 2 Party system of a decade ago has collapsed.
Arguably more a blip than a system, because you had constant civil war on the centre-right until eventually Sarkozy got enough hardline conservative support to firmly outpace the moderates (though he only won once). Before that you had Gaullists against Christian Democrats, or liberals, or other Gaullists, and in any case Le Pen was firmly on the scene by 2002.
Part of me would like Le Pen to win, just to watch the panic unfold about how the 'far right' are taking over Europe.
In fact... it isn't the 'far' right, it is just the views of a sizeable minority of people - probably about 45% of France... and if they don't win this time, they will be in an even stronger position next time.
It would be better to refer to these movements as the 'popular right'... but the whole point of democracy, is that peoples voices should be heard. And the great problem with the progressive establishment, is that they are making the same errors over and over again, not taking people like Le Pen and the deplorables who vote for her, seriously.
Since 24th February “far right” is no longer the relevant thing. It’s all about Russia and the war now. Ask the Poles.
JLM is even more pro Putin than Le Pen, I doubt he would be that upset.
Though still looks like Le Pen will narrowly get second place, currently she leads Melenchon by 0.8%
No he isn't. His opponents claim he is. He deniea it. Le Pen luxuriated in her closeness to Vlad. Until very recently. Black isn't white.
Melenchon wants to withdraw France from NATO, a huge boost for Putin
A France outside NATO under Melenchon would be hugely better for NATO than a Putin supporting President inside it. Get real. There'll be champagne flowing in Moscow if Le Pen wins. And you know it.
Sorry? The actual break up of NATO is better than France adopting a Gaullist position inside NATO?
What fucking nonsense. You just can't cope with the fact your own logic points you towards a Le Pen vote, in that thought experiment
Actually, that's quite an interesting experiment, too
If forced to choose, would you prefer to be governed by Stalin or Hitler?
Hitler certainly had his faults, let it be said loud and clear - after all, everyone has feet of clay - but as long as you weren't Jewish, disabled, gay, communist, socialist, mentally deficient, Roma, or into modern art, you had an OK life under him, at least in peacetime. Autobahns! Volkswagens!
EVERYONE had a shit time under Stalin, up to and including members of Stalin's own family. And yet Hitler always gets the bad press, the endless sniping from moaning minnies and lefty critics.
Is it time to reappraise?
In your experiment, do we get foresight over what eventually happens?
Or is it Stalin v Hitler, as new candidates with peace time manifestos, at an election?
JLM is even more pro Putin than Le Pen, I doubt he would be that upset.
Though still looks like Le Pen will narrowly get second place, currently she leads Melenchon by 0.8%
No he isn't. His opponents claim he is. He deniea it. Le Pen luxuriated in her closeness to Vlad. Until very recently. Black isn't white.
Melenchon wants to withdraw France from NATO, a huge boost for Putin
A France outside NATO under Melenchon would be hugely better for NATO than a Putin supporting President inside it. Get real. There'll be champagne flowing in Moscow if Le Pen wins. And you know it.
Sorry? The actual break up of NATO is better than France adopting a Gaullist position inside NATO?
What fucking nonsense. You just can't cope with the fact your own logic points you towards a Le Pen vote, in that thought experiment
Nope. Bollocks again. Putinite over lefty. That's your stance.
It's more complex than that, c'mon!
Look at the UK. We have the Tories accepting huge Russian donations v Corbyn, the impassioned defender of the oppressed.
On the face of it, who would be Putin's candidate? And yet.
Well. Who is Putin's candidate?
The answer is pretty straightforward. It works via a lobby system, not actually how much money has he given over but how much influence has Putin got for his ruble. Have any French politician ennobled Putin apologists, allowed them infrastructure contracts, media ownership or to own football clubs? That’s the way to calculate Putin’s candidates.
Putin really does not give the tiniest fuckovitch whether we allow Russian oligarchs to buy football clubs.
He wants the west weak, fractured, poor, Woke, and pathetic on defence
Corbyn in the UK and Melenchon in France would do that much better for him than, say, Farage in Westminster or Le Pen in the Elysee
The East German CDU hausfrau Merkel was probably his best friend of all, with her fondness for Ostpolitik and Nordstream 2
JLM is even more pro Putin than Le Pen, I doubt he would be that upset.
Though still looks like Le Pen will narrowly get second place, currently she leads Melenchon by 0.8%
No he isn't. His opponents claim he is. He deniea it. Le Pen luxuriated in her closeness to Vlad. Until very recently. Black isn't white.
Melenchon wants to withdraw France from NATO, a huge boost for Putin
A France outside NATO under Melenchon would be hugely better for NATO than a Putin supporting President inside it. Get real. There'll be champagne flowing in Moscow if Le Pen wins. And you know it.
Sorry? The actual break up of NATO is better than France adopting a Gaullist position inside NATO?
What fucking nonsense. You just can't cope with the fact your own logic points you towards a Le Pen vote, in that thought experiment
Pecresse is less than 1/2% ahead of Jadot. Who'd have seen that? The 2 Party system of a decade ago has collapsed.
Arguably more a blip than a system, because you had constant civil war on the centre-right until eventually Sarkozy got enough hardline conservative support to firmly outpace the moderates (though he only won once). Before that you had Gaullists against Christian Democrats, or liberals, or other Gaullists, and in any case Le Pen was firmly on the scene by 2002.
The weakness of the greens in France is notable. I think the lack of non-proportional assembly voting is probably part of the issue, as it is in the UK.
JLM is even more pro Putin than Le Pen, I doubt he would be that upset.
Though still looks like Le Pen will narrowly get second place, currently she leads Melenchon by 0.8%
No he isn't. His opponents claim he is. He deniea it. Le Pen luxuriated in her closeness to Vlad. Until very recently. Black isn't white.
Melenchon wants to withdraw France from NATO, a huge boost for Putin
A France outside NATO under Melenchon would be hugely better for NATO than a Putin supporting President inside it. Get real. There'll be champagne flowing in Moscow if Le Pen wins. And you know it.
Sorry? The actual break up of NATO is better than France adopting a Gaullist position inside NATO?
What fucking nonsense. You just can't cope with the fact your own logic points you towards a Le Pen vote, in that thought experiment
Nope. Bollocks again. Putinite over lefty. That's your stance.
It's more complex than that, c'mon!
Look at the UK. We have the Tories accepting huge Russian donations v Corbyn, the impassioned defender of the oppressed.
On the face of it, who would be Putin's candidate? And yet.
Well. Who is Putin's candidate?
I think the guy who questioned the Salisbury attack, over the other one sending thousands of anti-tank guns to Ukraine.
JLM is even more pro Putin than Le Pen, I doubt he would be that upset.
Though still looks like Le Pen will narrowly get second place, currently she leads Melenchon by 0.8%
No he isn't. His opponents claim he is. He deniea it. Le Pen luxuriated in her closeness to Vlad. Until very recently. Black isn't white.
Melenchon wants to withdraw France from NATO, a huge boost for Putin
A France outside NATO under Melenchon would be hugely better for NATO than a Putin supporting President inside it. Get real. There'll be champagne flowing in Moscow if Le Pen wins. And you know it.
Sorry? The actual break up of NATO is better than France adopting a Gaullist position inside NATO?
What fucking nonsense. You just can't cope with the fact your own logic points you towards a Le Pen vote, in that thought experiment
Nope. Bollocks again. Putinite over lefty. That's your stance.
It's more complex than that, c'mon!
Look at the UK. We have the Tories accepting huge Russian donations v Corbyn, the impassioned defender of the oppressed.
On the face of it, who would be Putin's candidate? And yet.
Well. Who is Putin's candidate?
I think the guy who questioned the Salisbury attack, over the other one sending thousands of anti-tank guns to Ukraine.
Obviously.
And today? We don't have Corbyn. Haven't for a while. And yet the Russian donations.
Seems like "part of" a lot of posters would like Le Pen to win. Why not just say it?
I'd like Macron to win.
Self interest says I like the idea of France in NATO, in the EU (otherwise it’s too German?) I think he would be better choice for the environment too.
But we are not French, not French rural poor - as the French vote do they really think Le Pen and Melenchon will pull France out of NATO or EU? Is that what French voter really have on their minds? More likely they think they will fight more strongly for better deal in EU, disrupt like Trump did for a better deal for US in NATO, and stop immigration and stop Macron’s unfair tax reforms - that’s probably how French voters see it this election? Domestic policies. Driven by self interest?
JLM is even more pro Putin than Le Pen, I doubt he would be that upset.
Though still looks like Le Pen will narrowly get second place, currently she leads Melenchon by 0.8%
No he isn't. His opponents claim he is. He deniea it. Le Pen luxuriated in her closeness to Vlad. Until very recently. Black isn't white.
Melenchon wants to withdraw France from NATO, a huge boost for Putin
A France outside NATO under Melenchon would be hugely better for NATO than a Putin supporting President inside it. Get real. There'll be champagne flowing in Moscow if Le Pen wins. And you know it.
Sorry? The actual break up of NATO is better than France adopting a Gaullist position inside NATO?
What fucking nonsense. You just can't cope with the fact your own logic points you towards a Le Pen vote, in that thought experiment
Nope. Bollocks again. Putinite over lefty. That's your stance.
It's more complex than that, c'mon!
Look at the UK. We have the Tories accepting huge Russian donations v Corbyn, the impassioned defender of the oppressed.
On the face of it, who would be Putin's candidate? And yet.
Well. Who is Putin's candidate?
The answer is pretty straightforward. It works via a lobby system, not actually how much money has he given over but how much influence has Putin got for his ruble. Have any French politician ennobled Putin apologists, allowed them infrastructure contracts, media ownership or to own football clubs? That’s the way to calculate Putin’s candidates.
Putin really does not give the tiniest fuckovitch whether we allow Russian oligarchs to buy football clubs.
He wants the west weak, fractured, poor, Woke, and pathetic on defence
Corbyn in the UK and Melenchon in France would do that much better for him than, say, Farage in Westminster or Le Pen in the Elysee
The East German CDU hausfrau Merkel was probably his best friend of all, with her fondness for Ostpolitik and Nordstream 2
The reality is the president will be Macron or Le Pen. If Melenchon came second, Macron would be President. If it was Melenchon vs Le Pen in round 2, Le Pen would be President. So from Putin’s perspective it’s all about Le Pen.
Muslim majority Mayotte in the Indian Ocean went for Le Pen 42.7%!
Any explanations are welcome. I don't know anything about the place.
It's a mildly impoverished ex-French-colony in the Indian Ocean - heavily BGME and Muslim - which recently voted to become a part of Metro France - a departement - and thus vote directly in Paris elex
Seems like "part of" a lot of posters would like Le Pen to win. Why not just say it?
The Putin thing is a major, major problem - both with her and Zemmour. So I don't want her to win.
But otherwise, I just don't see what is so wrong with Le Pen that she should be regarded at the same level as Hitler. I would see her victory in the same way as Brexit and Trump - the product of democracy.
Actually, that's quite an interesting experiment, too
If forced to choose, would you prefer to be governed by Stalin or Hitler?
Hitler certainly had his faults, let it be said loud and clear - after all, everyone has feet of clay - but as long as you weren't Jewish, disabled, gay, communist, socialist, mentally deficient, Roma, or into modern art, you had an OK life under him, at least in peacetime. Autobahns! Volkswagens!
EVERYONE had a shit time under Stalin, up to and including members of Stalin's own family. And yet Hitler always gets the bad press, the endless sniping from moaning minnies and lefty critics.
Is it time to reappraise?
In your experiment, do we get foresight over what eventually happens?
Or is it Stalin v Hitler, as new candidates with peace time manifestos, at an election?
I dunno. I'm just bored of the "constant carping" about Hitler, like he was all bad. Like the whole slavery issue, these things are never black and white
It's touch and go for Macron. Remember she'll get the majority of Zemmour and Dupont-Aignon's vote.
It would be interesting to know what (a) the expected abstention rates were immediately after the first round last time, and (b) what they ever up being.
Good question. Here's a poll from the day of the first round last time:
The bit of the chart that *really* stands out there is that a large number of first round abstentions went for Macron in the second round last time.
Although that’s what people said they were going to do so it needs to be cross referenced with what actually happened. I know that turnout was down in the second round and 3 million people voted for none of the above.
That chart shows exactly that: i.e. turnout meaningfully down if you look at Macron and Le Pen compared to the candidates previous votes, and with a surprising number of abstentions voting in the second round.
Good point. So the question is whether that kind of voter will be motivated to get out to vote for him a second time. If they were “stop Le Pen” voters, perhaps she’s done enough to detoxify herself for them not to bother.
Exactly.
It would be really interesting to compare her favourable/unfavourable in 2017 to now. My guess is that she's improved markedly, but at -29, she's still too negative to win. This time.
You are sounding very certain she can’t win, in a very tight and very fluid situation. We have though looked closely at this question in UK politics recently, I recall a header from Mike saying it depends what question is asked, how the satisfaction ratings calculated differently between pollsters.
What you are saying Robert, Le pen can’t win at -29, what hope for Boris Johnson at -47?
Isn’t French politics special place where no one is ever favoured very positively in satisfaction ratings, even the comfortable winners?
Eh?
I'm not certain. She is, as she has been for a little while, approximately a one-in-six shot. And one-in-six shots come in all the time. (Or, at least, about one in six times...)
That being said, this morning, she was probably one-in-five, maybe even one-in-four, but the combination of a relatively robust Macron vote share, Melechon's comments, and the relatively small pool of DA/Zemmour voters, means that she's (in my mind) moved out a little.
The betting markets have - however - overreacted. She's better than a 9-1 shot.
Although Le Pen has avoided being harmed by her Putin baggage during the first round the game changes now with just two candidates .
I expect fireworks in the debate .
From Macron and Le Pen? The debate was take a book to read event last time. Neither of them could debate their way through a lettuce leaf.
Also of course, do the French electorate agree with you In wanting Macron to debate on the international not the domestic, or is that precisely the approach that drops him into trouble?
Do you speak French?
I was off school when they did languages Roger. Why do you ask?
I speak a bit of German (which sounds easy to learn) because we have some Relatives in Germany in munchingladbacks I have been to. And my mother has taught me lots of Cantonese, so much so I can understand what she is saying to me in it. It’s Nothing ever particularly good though.
JLM is even more pro Putin than Le Pen, I doubt he would be that upset.
Though still looks like Le Pen will narrowly get second place, currently she leads Melenchon by 0.8%
No he isn't. His opponents claim he is. He deniea it. Le Pen luxuriated in her closeness to Vlad. Until very recently. Black isn't white.
Melenchon wants to withdraw France from NATO, a huge boost for Putin
A France outside NATO under Melenchon would be hugely better for NATO than a Putin supporting President inside it. Get real. There'll be champagne flowing in Moscow if Le Pen wins. And you know it.
Sorry? The actual break up of NATO is better than France adopting a Gaullist position inside NATO?
What fucking nonsense. You just can't cope with the fact your own logic points you towards a Le Pen vote, in that thought experiment
Nope. Bollocks again. Putinite over lefty. That's your stance.
It's more complex than that, c'mon!
Look at the UK. We have the Tories accepting huge Russian donations v Corbyn, the impassioned defender of the oppressed.
On the face of it, who would be Putin's candidate? And yet.
Well. Who is Putin's candidate?
The answer is pretty straightforward. It works via a lobby system, not actually how much money has he given over but how much influence has Putin got for his ruble. Have any French politician ennobled Putin apologists, allowed them infrastructure contracts, media ownership or to own football clubs? That’s the way to calculate Putin’s candidates.
Putin really does not give the tiniest fuckovitch whether we allow Russian oligarchs to buy football clubs.
He wants the west weak, fractured, poor, Woke, and pathetic on defence
Corbyn in the UK and Melenchon in France would do that much better for him than, say, Farage in Westminster or Le Pen in the Elysee
The East German CDU hausfrau Merkel was probably his best friend of all, with her fondness for Ostpolitik and Nordstream 2
The reality is the president will be Macron or Le Pen. If Melenchon came second, Macron would be President. If it was Melenchon vs Le Pen in round 2, Le Pen would be President. So from Putin’s perspective it’s all about Le Pen.
Well, yes, of course
To be more sensible. At this point, and in reality, Putin wants Le Pen to win. Which is one major reason why I hope Macron wins - and I am also pretty sure he will win
Part of me would like Le Pen to win, just to watch the panic unfold about how the 'far right' are taking over Europe.
In fact... it isn't the 'far' right, it is just the views of a sizeable minority of people - probably about 45% of France... and if they don't win this time, they will be in an even stronger position next time.
It would be better to refer to these movements as the 'popular right'... but the whole point of democracy, is that peoples voices should be heard. And the great problem with the progressive establishment, is that they are making the same errors over and over again, not taking people like Le Pen and the deplorables who vote for her, seriously.
Since 24th February “far right” is no longer the relevant thing. It’s all about Russia and the war now. Ask the Poles.
JLM is even more pro Putin than Le Pen, I doubt he would be that upset.
Though still looks like Le Pen will narrowly get second place, currently she leads Melenchon by 0.8%
No he isn't. His opponents claim he is. He deniea it. Le Pen luxuriated in her closeness to Vlad. Until very recently. Black isn't white.
Melenchon wants to withdraw France from NATO, a huge boost for Putin
A France outside NATO under Melenchon would be hugely better for NATO than a Putin supporting President inside it. Get real. There'll be champagne flowing in Moscow if Le Pen wins. And you know it.
Sorry? The actual break up of NATO is better than France adopting a Gaullist position inside NATO?
What fucking nonsense. You just can't cope with the fact your own logic points you towards a Le Pen vote, in that thought experiment
Nope. Bollocks again. Putinite over lefty. That's your stance.
It's more complex than that, c'mon!
Look at the UK. We have the Tories accepting huge Russian donations v Corbyn, the impassioned defender of the oppressed.
On the face of it, who would be Putin's candidate? And yet.
Well. Who is Putin's candidate?
I think the guy who questioned the Salisbury attack, over the other one sending thousands of anti-tank guns to Ukraine.
JLM is even more pro Putin than Le Pen, I doubt he would be that upset.
Though still looks like Le Pen will narrowly get second place, currently she leads Melenchon by 0.8%
No he isn't. His opponents claim he is. He deniea it. Le Pen luxuriated in her closeness to Vlad. Until very recently. Black isn't white.
Melenchon wants to withdraw France from NATO, a huge boost for Putin
A France outside NATO under Melenchon would be hugely better for NATO than a Putin supporting President inside it. Get real. There'll be champagne flowing in Moscow if Le Pen wins. And you know it.
Sorry? The actual break up of NATO is better than France adopting a Gaullist position inside NATO?
What fucking nonsense. You just can't cope with the fact your own logic points you towards a Le Pen vote, in that thought experiment
Nope. Bollocks again. Putinite over lefty. That's your stance.
It's more complex than that, c'mon!
Look at the UK. We have the Tories accepting huge Russian donations v Corbyn, the impassioned defender of the oppressed.
On the face of it, who would be Putin's candidate? And yet.
Well. Who is Putin's candidate?
I think the guy who questioned the Salisbury attack, over the other one sending thousands of anti-tank guns to Ukraine.
Obviously.
And today? We don't have Corbyn. Haven't for a while. And yet the Russian donations.
Corbyn didn't even need to be bought. Pathetic, really - at least try for a bribe.
I think Starmer and Johnson are about equally unfriendly to Putin, and that comes down to the power of our democracy and the pressure ordinary people can exert on the government.
For the big, fundamental stuff, even the Tories can't be bought.
It's touch and go for Macron. Remember she'll get the majority of Zemmour and Dupont-Aignon's vote.
It would be interesting to know what (a) the expected abstention rates were immediately after the first round last time, and (b) what they ever up being.
Good question. Here's a poll from the day of the first round last time:
The bit of the chart that *really* stands out there is that a large number of first round abstentions went for Macron in the second round last time.
Although that’s what people said they were going to do so it needs to be cross referenced with what actually happened. I know that turnout was down in the second round and 3 million people voted for none of the above.
That chart shows exactly that: i.e. turnout meaningfully down if you look at Macron and Le Pen compared to the candidates previous votes, and with a surprising number of abstentions voting in the second round.
Good point. So the question is whether that kind of voter will be motivated to get out to vote for him a second time. If they were “stop Le Pen” voters, perhaps she’s done enough to detoxify herself for them not to bother.
Exactly.
It would be really interesting to compare her favourable/unfavourable in 2017 to now. My guess is that she's improved markedly, but at -29, she's still too negative to win. This time.
You are sounding very certain she can’t win, in a very tight and very fluid situation. We have though looked closely at this question in UK politics recently, I recall a header from Mike saying it depends what question is asked, how the satisfaction ratings calculated differently between pollsters.
What you are saying Robert, Le pen can’t win at -29, what hope for Boris Johnson at -47?
Isn’t French politics special place where no one is ever favoured very positively in satisfaction ratings, even the comfortable winners?
Eh?
I'm not certain. She is, as she has been for a little while, approximately a one-in-six shot. And one-in-six shots come in all the time. (Or, at least, about one in six times...)
That being said, this morning, she was probably one-in-five, maybe even one-in-four, but the combination of a relatively robust Macron vote share, Melechon's comments, and the relatively small pool of DA/Zemmour voters, means that she's (in my mind) moved out a little.
The betting markets have - however - overreacted. She's better than a 9-1 shot.
Actually, that's quite an interesting experiment, too
If forced to choose, would you prefer to be governed by Stalin or Hitler?
Hitler certainly had his faults, let it be said loud and clear - after all, everyone has feet of clay - but as long as you weren't Jewish, disabled, gay, communist, socialist, mentally deficient, Roma, or into modern art, you had an OK life under him, at least in peacetime. Autobahns! Volkswagens!
EVERYONE had a shit time under Stalin, up to and including members of Stalin's own family. And yet Hitler always gets the bad press, the endless sniping from moaning minnies and lefty critics.
Is it time to reappraise?
In your experiment, do we get foresight over what eventually happens?
Or is it Stalin v Hitler, as new candidates with peace time manifestos, at an election?
I dunno. I'm just bored of the "constant carping" about Hitler, like he was all bad. Like the whole slavery issue, these things are never black and white
Agreed, just ask some of Poland's Jews.
Oh wait.
You can't ask Poland's Jews, because Hitler gave the order for them to be exterminated.
Actually, that's quite an interesting experiment, too
If forced to choose, would you prefer to be governed by Stalin or Hitler?
Hitler certainly had his faults, let it be said loud and clear - after all, everyone has feet of clay - but as long as you weren't Jewish, disabled, gay, communist, socialist, mentally deficient, Roma, or into modern art, you had an OK life under him, at least in peacetime. Autobahns! Volkswagens!
EVERYONE had a shit time under Stalin, up to and including members of Stalin's own family. And yet Hitler always gets the bad press, the endless sniping from moaning minnies and lefty critics.
Is it time to reappraise?
In your experiment, do we get foresight over what eventually happens?
Or is it Stalin v Hitler, as new candidates with peace time manifestos, at an election?
I dunno. I'm just bored of the "constant carping" about Hitler, like he was all bad. Like the whole slavery issue, these things are never black and white
Agreed, just ask some of Poland's Jews.
Oh wait.
You can't ask Poland's Jews, because Hitler gave the order for them to be exterminated.
I was trying to do a Jimmy Carr joke. The clue is in the bit when I say:
"Like the whole slavery issue, these things are never black and white"
Actually, that's quite an interesting experiment, too
If forced to choose, would you prefer to be governed by Stalin or Hitler?
Hitler certainly had his faults, let it be said loud and clear - after all, everyone has feet of clay - but as long as you weren't Jewish, disabled, gay, communist, socialist, mentally deficient, Roma, or into modern art, you had an OK life under him, at least in peacetime. Autobahns! Volkswagens!
EVERYONE had a shit time under Stalin, up to and including members of Stalin's own family. And yet Hitler always gets the bad press, the endless sniping from moaning minnies and lefty critics.
Is it time to reappraise?
In your experiment, do we get foresight over what eventually happens?
Or is it Stalin v Hitler, as new candidates with peace time manifestos, at an election?
I dunno. I'm just bored of the "constant carping" about Hitler, like he was all bad. Like the whole slavery issue, these things are never black and white
In amongst the silliness, you're basically replicating a brilliant history lesson I had when I was 16.
Teacher presented Nazi political philosophy to my class, swapped out Jews for gingers, Germany for Scotland, and asked us what we thought.
Laughter and support. Followed by deep regret at the reveal.
It's touch and go for Macron. Remember she'll get the majority of Zemmour and Dupont-Aignon's vote.
It would be interesting to know what (a) the expected abstention rates were immediately after the first round last time, and (b) what they ever up being.
Good question. Here's a poll from the day of the first round last time:
The bit of the chart that *really* stands out there is that a large number of first round abstentions went for Macron in the second round last time.
Although that’s what people said they were going to do so it needs to be cross referenced with what actually happened. I know that turnout was down in the second round and 3 million people voted for none of the above.
That chart shows exactly that: i.e. turnout meaningfully down if you look at Macron and Le Pen compared to the candidates previous votes, and with a surprising number of abstentions voting in the second round.
Good point. So the question is whether that kind of voter will be motivated to get out to vote for him a second time. If they were “stop Le Pen” voters, perhaps she’s done enough to detoxify herself for them not to bother.
Exactly.
It would be really interesting to compare her favourable/unfavourable in 2017 to now. My guess is that she's improved markedly, but at -29, she's still too negative to win. This time.
You are sounding very certain she can’t win, in a very tight and very fluid situation. We have though looked closely at this question in UK politics recently, I recall a header from Mike saying it depends what question is asked, how the satisfaction ratings calculated differently between pollsters.
What you are saying Robert, Le pen can’t win at -29, what hope for Boris Johnson at -47?
Isn’t French politics special place where no one is ever favoured very positively in satisfaction ratings, even the comfortable winners?
Eh?
I'm not certain. She is, as she has been for a little while, approximately a one-in-six shot. And one-in-six shots come in all the time. (Or, at least, about one in six times...)
That being said, this morning, she was probably one-in-five, maybe even one-in-four, but the combination of a relatively robust Macron vote share, Melechon's comments, and the relatively small pool of DA/Zemmour voters, means that she's (in my mind) moved out a little.
The betting markets have - however - overreacted. She's better than a 9-1 shot.
Muslim majority Mayotte in the Indian Ocean went for Le Pen 42.7%!
Any explanations are welcome. I don't know anything about the place.
She won last time too, but by a lot less than 42.7%. Mayotte has endured massive waves of migration from the Comoros - larger as a proportion of the population than practically anywhere in Europe, and the Comoros is one of the world's absolutely worst-off countries. Furthermore it is very remote from the rest of France and many people don't speak French. And after all we are talking about maybe thirty thousand votes. It's not that RN do well in other elections but Le Pen clearly has some kind of connection in Mayotte.
Centre-right: 20.0% to 4.7%. Centre-left: 6.4% to 1.8%.
Roger please explain.
My message has been at first glance it looks like little has changed, but look closer and the electorate are a heck of a lot more… To the right? Hating the establishment even more? Even more anti EU? Even more anti immigration? Even more unhappy in how cost of living crisis, taxation and fairness in general is being handled by Macron?
Take green as an example. Someone in a yellow jacket protesting about fuel prices and fuel tax should not necessarily be thought of as anti-green, it simply shows green agenda’s cannot be rolled out without tax fairness and social justice at the same time.
Your original prediction was that Macron didn't get into the final two. The odds were so huge and you seemed so convinced I put everything I had on it........
I'm now selling the Big Issue on Tottenham Court Road.
(But at least it's not raining)
No Roger. My original prediction was Mélenchon makes top two - whoever however with Macron in top two beats him in round two.
My bet on Melenchon coming second was proved wrong. Yes. He got up to 20, but Zemmour iceberg melting into Le Pens slushy cocktail cost me.
A 12 for Zemmour could have been a 19 for Le Pen. Likewise a 12 from Pecresse could have been a 23% for Macron.
I called round 1 wrong and lost my bet because how the Pecresse and Zemmour fell more than I anticipated.
Macron gobbled “pecresse” votes up after first round last time, not during it. In the bigger picture He’s actually down not up, meanwhile Le Pen + Zemmour is 30%. Because the electorate has clearly moved in 5 years.
You admit it’s a different electorate this time?
To you have any inside knowledge or evidence for these wild predictions?
Well my wild prediction is actually by taking the Le Pen and Zemmour actual vote % off the errrrr mainstream TV channel in front of me and added together they work out as 30%.
You are aware there is a French General Election going on tonight Roger?
Yes I am aware. What gives you the idea that a majority of the French are anti EU?
Comments
Another Charlie Hebdo or Bataclan massacre and who knows.
Not me.
Vlad would choose among the big 3.
1 Le Pen.
2 Melenchon.
3 And a fair way last Macron.
Choosing the candidate Putin doesn't want is most important right now.
I'm surprised how many fervent pro-Ukrainians anti-Putiners are so ambivalent about the choice in France.
Though still looks like Le Pen will narrowly get second place, currently she leads Melenchon by 0.8%
So bang goes your theory
Black isn't white.
I expect fireworks in the debate .
That surprises me. I always thought it was left wing down there
It’s not small fry, but is it really large on that chart, not as large compared to the 1st round Fillion supporters and Melenchon supporters going to Macron last time. And would Macron get all that first round abstention this time, or more likely, eaten it already this time with three quarters of LR support already no longer in his larder?
Real votes so far are:
Macron 27.39%
Le Pen 24.73%
Melenchon 20.79%
with 89% counted
https://www.resultats-elections.interieur.gouv.fr/presidentielle-2022/FE.html
There's still a smaller gap between Macron and Le Pen than between Le Pen and Melenchon, although that may change with the final 11% of the vote to be reported.
Good luck Macron in two weeks time.
Le Pen should pick up most of the DA and Zemmour vote, which puts her in a strong position - but not that strong. LP + 80% of Zemmour + 80% of DA gets her to about 30%... which is two and change ahead of Macron.
The problem is that she's only two and change ahead of Macron, and pretty much every other defeated candidate is going to endorse him. Melenchon's 'not one vote' comment was pretty forthright. And, sure, I don't believe that endorsements matter that much... but at the same time, they don't have to matter that much. If a couple of percent of that Melenchon vote that was previously going to abstain comes out for Macron, then he wins fairly easily.
So... I'm sticking with my current strategy, which is currently mildly green Le Pen, and slightly more green Macron. I will be selling Le Pen at 18-20%, and buying her at 10-12%.
There'll be champagne flowing in Moscow if Le Pen wins.
And you know it.
"Jean-Luc Mélenchon, presidential candidate of radical left party La France Insoumise, hopes to push member countries to break away from EU treaties “that block us” if he wins the election in April. EURACTIV France reports.
If he fails to find support among the EU27, Mélenchon, known for his no-holds-barred discourse, said he will just disregard EU rules that go against his programme."
https://www.euractiv.com/section/elections/news/presidential-candidate-melenchon-ready-to-push-for-eu-treaty-reform/
I'm sorry if this discomforts you, but in a forced choice, if your intention is to make sure Putin does not get his preference, you should choose Le Pen over Melenchon.
Melenchon would also fuck the French economy
8] Domestic policies proposed by Mélenchon include a 100% income tax on earnings over €360,000 a year,
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jean-Luc_Mélenchon#:~:text=Domestic policies proposed by Mélenchon,the easing of immigration laws.
Also of course, do the French electorate agree with you In wanting Macron to debate on the international not the domestic, or is that precisely the approach that drops him into trouble?
What fucking nonsense. You just can't cope with the fact your own logic points you towards a Le Pen vote, in that thought experiment
So Macron wins.
Given pro-Putin candidates tend to lose (eg Corbyn), it might even be the opposite.
It's merely evidence Melenchon is a lefty. We know that. You choose the Putinite over the Lefty.
We know that too.
"France remained a member of the alliance and committed to the defense of Europe from possible Warsaw Pact attack with its own forces stationed in West Germany throughout the Cold War. A series of secret accords between the US and French officials, the Lemnitzer–Ailleret Agreements, detailed how French forces would dovetail back into NATO's command structure if East-West hostilities broke out"
It was just Gaullist posturing. Le Pen has said she will do exactly the same as De Gaulle
Melenchon would actually withdraw in toto and in fact
It would be really interesting to compare her favourable/unfavourable in 2017 to now. My guess is that she's improved markedly, but at -29, she's still too negative to win. This time.
Though, when people talk up her “closeness” to Putin, has her Party accepted as much Putin money as the UK Tory Party? Up until this war, and despite his previous crimes, Putin money and cronies were at home in London and our political lobby, we’re they not?
When the next UK General Election kicks off, will there be fireworks about how close the UK Tory party were pre war to Putin apologists and money?
That’s me asking with my Libdem hat on. 🙂
gap between Macron and Le Pen: 2.9%
gap between Le Pen and Melenchon: 3.6%.
Don’t think I said Salmond was the greatest pm the UK never had.
Robert: always read the entire paragraph
Look at the UK. We have the Tories accepting huge Russian donations v Corbyn, the impassioned defender of the oppressed.
On the face of it, who would be Putin's candidate? And yet.
Le Pen and Melenchon have just come 2nd and 3rd in the 1st round, not far behind Macron, so a 2nd round between them was far from impossible
Anyway enough, the experiment has run its course.
Le Pen is now 4/1, I think that is about right, at this stage
The debate will be pivotal
The biggest problem for Le Pen is Le Pen ! She can try and look all warm and cuddly but older people tend to be less forgiving of her past and her family connections .
Given the importance of the older voter in terms of turnout the odds are stacked against her although she will do better than last time .
Part of me would like Le Pen to win, just to watch the panic unfold about how the 'far right' are taking over Europe.
In fact... it isn't the 'far' right, it is just the views of a sizeable minority of people - probably about 45% of France... and if they don't win this time, they will be in an even stronger position next time.
It would be better to refer to these movements as the 'popular right'... but the whole point of democracy, is that peoples voices should be heard. And the great problem with the progressive establishment, is that they are making the same errors over and over again, not taking people like Le Pen and the deplorables who vote for her, seriously.
Edit: I see Leon got there first.
What you are saying Robert, Le pen can’t win at -29, what hope for Boris Johnson at -47?
Isn’t French politics special place where no one is ever favoured very positively in satisfaction ratings, even the comfortable winners?
Yet their primary goal would undermine the prime military power in Europe.
Muslim majority Mayotte in the Indian Ocean went for Le Pen 42.7%!
Why not just say it?
Obviously.
If forced to choose, would you prefer to be governed by Stalin or Hitler?
Hitler certainly had his faults, let it be said loud and clear - after all, everyone has feet of clay - but as long as you weren't Jewish, disabled, gay, communist, socialist, mentally deficient, Roma, or into modern art, you had an OK life under him, at least in peacetime. Autobahns! Volkswagens!
EVERYONE had a shit time under Stalin, up to and including members of Stalin's own family. And yet Hitler always gets the bad press, the endless sniping from moaning minnies and lefty critics.
Is it time to reappraise?
Or is it Stalin v Hitler, as new candidates with peace time manifestos, at an election?
He wants the west weak, fractured, poor, Woke, and pathetic on defence
Corbyn in the UK and Melenchon in France would do that much better for him than, say, Farage in Westminster or Le Pen in the Elysee
The East German CDU hausfrau Merkel was probably his best friend of all, with her fondness for Ostpolitik and Nordstream 2
Roger is here
Roger, mate, it never left NATO. Do some fucking reading
https://www.resultats-elections.interieur.gouv.fr/presidentielle-2022/011/075/index.html
But we are not French, not French rural poor - as the French vote do they really think Le Pen and Melenchon will pull France out of NATO or EU? Is that what French voter really have on their minds? More likely they think they will fight more strongly for better deal in EU, disrupt like Trump did for a better deal for US in NATO, and stop immigration and stop Macron’s unfair tax reforms - that’s probably how French voters see it this election? Domestic policies. Driven by self interest?
Sunil is correct. This is a surprising result
But otherwise, I just don't see what is so wrong with Le Pen that she should be regarded at the same level as Hitler. I would see her victory in the same way as Brexit and Trump - the product of democracy.
I'm not certain. She is, as she has been for a little while, approximately a one-in-six shot. And one-in-six shots come in all the time. (Or, at least, about one in six times...)
That being said, this morning, she was probably one-in-five, maybe even one-in-four, but the combination of a relatively robust Macron vote share, Melechon's comments, and the relatively small pool of DA/Zemmour voters, means that she's (in my mind) moved out a little.
The betting markets have - however - overreacted. She's better than a 9-1 shot.
I speak a bit of German (which sounds easy to learn) because we have some Relatives in Germany in munchingladbacks I have been to. And my mother has taught me lots of Cantonese, so much so I can understand what she is saying to me in it. It’s Nothing ever particularly good though.
To be more sensible. At this point, and in reality, Putin wants Le Pen to win. Which is one major reason why I hope Macron wins - and I am also pretty sure he will win
I think Starmer and Johnson are about equally unfriendly to Putin, and that comes down to the power of our democracy and the pressure ordinary people can exert on the government.
For the big, fundamental stuff, even the Tories can't be bought.
Oddschecker says she is about 7/2 or 4/1?
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/european-politics/french-politics/next-french-president
Oh wait.
You can't ask Poland's Jews, because Hitler gave the order for them to be exterminated.
Maybe the battle lines of the future will be between major urban areas and the rest.
"Like the whole slavery issue, these things are never black and white"
Teacher presented Nazi political philosophy to my class, swapped out Jews for gingers, Germany for Scotland, and asked us what we thought.
Laughter and support. Followed by deep regret at the reveal.
https://www.resultats-elections.interieur.gouv.fr/presidentielle-2022/FE.html
(Oddschecker is also likely out of date.)
Edit to add... thanks Betfred. It turns out I have a little money in my account and was able to put a few quid on Macron at 4-1.
??
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1566384/eu-news-frexit-referendum-poll-France-leaves-eu-Emmanuel-macron
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1546807/Emmanuel-Macron-france-eu-membership-poll-frexit-poll
What makes you sure EU membership not a driver of votes in this election?