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Known unknowns – politicalbetting.com

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  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,601
    Nigelb said:

    malcolmg said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sophie Raworth informed this morning by Ukraine's chief diplomatic advisor that the President of Ukraine issued the invite to Boris which he accepted

    Video of his train journey

    Boris Johnson on Ukrainian train

    https://news.sky.com/video/share-12586946

    Ah, so the official narrative is a train from Poland to Kiev, obviously not released until well after he had left the country.

    If that’s the VIP corridor, it’s sadly an easy target for a team of Russian special forces.
    I'm not saying the Russians are totally sane but if a NATO head of state got assassinated that would likely work out much better for Zelenskyy than Putin.

    Watching that video I wondered if the same thought had occurred to Boris; Apart from when he walks over to greet the random security-cleared Boris fan who they happen to run into he tries to stand as close to Zelenskyy as possible...
    I imagine that he was rather nervous, to put it mildly. Probably wearing a Kevlar vest under that suit as well.

    Serious guts on display from both leaders.
    You are deluded, he would not hve been there if there was any danger.
    While the city is considerably safer than when under siege, it’s not safe.
    I don’t know why folk are arguing about this from a partisan point of view (which seems to be most expressing an opinion either way).

    I’m quite happy to give the PM some credit over Ukraine, and vote aghast him at the next election. Trying to find criticisms for the sake of it is a waste of effort.
    Point is Nigel, it is just grandstanding , no way he would have been there if it was not relatively safe. Barring a rogue missile he was in little danger.
    His time would have been better spent sorting out the visa shambles which has meant almost no-one has managed to get to UK as they continually put up barriers to delay it till it is too late.
    To come out with crap about him having serious guts is laughable unless you were talking about the size of his belly.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,839

    Dura_Ace said:

    Roger said:

    Heathener said:

    Agree with TSE. I'm one of the majority who believe restrictions were lifted too soon. In fact I think we've gone crackers on this. But then, we didn't bring in restrictions fast enough either. The NHS is on its knees right now and so are other industries. As a friend of mine comments, 'the country has gone to the dogs.' Not a reference to Big Dog.

    And now of course without free LFT's we've no knowledge of the real figures, which just perpetuates the fear. Johnson is an f-ing idiot.

    Speaking of which, he must be cross not to command the front pages. I'm surprised. Only The Observer and Express lead with his photo op trip to Ukraine.

    When everyone knows that Johnson's life is just one giant ego trip even newspapers as crass as the Sun and Mail baulk at being sucked into it
    I hope Zelenskyy is aware of the traditional fate of friends of Johnson. Exploited, abandoned and then ignored is the usual trajectory.
    A true Brit then!

    Remember the old Arab proverb: “it is better to be the enemy of the British than their friend, for they buy their enemies and sell their friends”
    The proverb specifically says "انكليزي" (Englishman) not "بريطاني" (British). Make of that what you will...

    It is of Egyptian origin and was one of the intermediate translation exercises on my Arabic course in al-Qahira.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,810
    tlg86 said:

    On topic, COVID and NHS waiting lists won’t matter one bit.

    “Will I and my children/grandchildren be better off under Labour?”

    That’s the key question. I have no idea how the politicians will play it and how the public will react.

    The Old Coles? Probably a bit better off, since the NHS will have/have been picked up so we won't have to wait so long for treatment. So we won't have to pay for minor treatments.
    Children ..... well, 'child' approaching retirement age, but taxes might well go up a bit and he's doing very well.
    Grandchildren.... two in public service so probably. Two still in education so possibly; opportunities for history graduates and or people in the entertainment industry.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    The Times has some new polling from @IpsosUK:

    Is Sunak doing a good or bad job?

    Good: 30% (-2)
    Bad: 37% (+4)

    Trust to reduce cost of living:

    Lab: 43% (+3)
    Con: 25% (-1)

    Changes with 24-25 March, not sure when the new fieldwork was (may be before non-dom story).

    And this is why Labour will remain ahead and the lead will increase

    That is a killer for con.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,237
    What on earth is the point of the taxpayer spending funds investigating who leaked stuff about the Sunaks?

    It was no 10! And the inquiry is doomed to fail.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,598
    Given the grumpy nature of PB this morning, we have a someone everyone can hate.

    Out for my morning run, I saw that the local CoE church was doing an Easter procession. Round some of the suburban rounds round the church.

    An idiot in Chelsea Tractor was braying at one of the wardens of the procession that the road was blocked.

    The roads being a rectilinear grid (mostly), he could have reversed about 20 yards and taken another side street or waited literally 2 minutes.

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,601
    Dura_Ace said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Roger said:

    Heathener said:

    Agree with TSE. I'm one of the majority who believe restrictions were lifted too soon. In fact I think we've gone crackers on this. But then, we didn't bring in restrictions fast enough either. The NHS is on its knees right now and so are other industries. As a friend of mine comments, 'the country has gone to the dogs.' Not a reference to Big Dog.

    And now of course without free LFT's we've no knowledge of the real figures, which just perpetuates the fear. Johnson is an f-ing idiot.

    Speaking of which, he must be cross not to command the front pages. I'm surprised. Only The Observer and Express lead with his photo op trip to Ukraine.

    When everyone knows that Johnson's life is just one giant ego trip even newspapers as crass as the Sun and Mail baulk at being sucked into it
    I hope Zelenskyy is aware of the traditional fate of friends of Johnson. Exploited, abandoned and then ignored is the usual trajectory.
    A true Brit then!

    Remember the old Arab proverb: “it is better to be the enemy of the British than their friend, for they buy their enemies and sell their friends”
    The proverb specifically says "انكليزي" (Englishman) not "بريطاني" (British). Make of that what you will...

    It is of Egyptian origin and was one of the intermediate translation exercises on my Arabic course in al-Qahira.
    More accurate indeed.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,810

    What on earth is the point of the taxpayer spending funds investigating who leaked stuff about the Sunaks?

    It was no 10! And the inquiry is doomed to fail.

    Not King Charles St? Or Chevening?

    If so the inquiry might succeed, due to assistance from elsewhere.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,598
    Sandpit said:

    MattW said:

    Sandpit said:

    Get in there! More weapons like that, please.
    Martlet not Starstreak, apparently:
    https://twitter.com/Gabriel64869839/status/1513074787253473283
    More of them too! I’m sure they’re all welcomed by the Ukranians.
    Interesting that Martlet is so inter-compatible with Starstreak (and it's guidance system) that they can be mounted on the same multiple launcher.

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,238

    tlg86 said:

    On topic, COVID and NHS waiting lists won’t matter one bit.

    “Will I and my children/grandchildren be better off under Labour?”

    That’s the key question. I have no idea how the politicians will play it and how the public will react.

    Grandchildren? That's a laugh when the client state voters put in place a government that repeatedly raise costs and taxes on the young and triple lock in their pensions. +2.5% for national insurance whilst promising to reduce income tax says it all.
    I’ve made this point many times, but one of the things that made me think Labour were doing better in 2017 than many expected was what a 60-something in a pub told my dad.

    He said “I’ve never voted Labour before, but I don’t want my granddaughters to be lumbered with huge debt from tuition fees.”

    Scrapping tuition fees is popular with older voters, even if it doesn’t benefit them directly.

    Of course, how you find that is another matter, but it doesn’t really matter. The old aren’t quite as selfish as PB makes them out to be.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,995
    malcolmg said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Roger said:

    Heathener said:

    Agree with TSE. I'm one of the majority who believe restrictions were lifted too soon. In fact I think we've gone crackers on this. But then, we didn't bring in restrictions fast enough either. The NHS is on its knees right now and so are other industries. As a friend of mine comments, 'the country has gone to the dogs.' Not a reference to Big Dog.

    And now of course without free LFT's we've no knowledge of the real figures, which just perpetuates the fear. Johnson is an f-ing idiot.

    Speaking of which, he must be cross not to command the front pages. I'm surprised. Only The Observer and Express lead with his photo op trip to Ukraine.

    When everyone knows that Johnson's life is just one giant ego trip even newspapers as crass as the Sun and Mail baulk at being sucked into it
    I hope Zelenskyy is aware of the traditional fate of friends of Johnson. Exploited, abandoned and then ignored is the usual trajectory.
    A true Brit then!

    Remember the old Arab proverb: “it is better to be the enemy of the British than their friend, for they buy their enemies and sell their friends”
    The proverb specifically says "انكليزي" (Englishman) not "بريطاني" (British). Make of that what you will...

    It is of Egyptian origin and was one of the intermediate translation exercises on my Arabic course in al-Qahira.
    More accurate indeed.
    There is such an easy joke about the Scottish never buying anything I could make there... :wink:
  • glwglw Posts: 9,971
    edited April 2022

    Insane that anyone should be annoyed by Johnson visiting Kyiv. Demonstrating British solidarity with the Ukraine is hugely important and going there is a big part of that. Same with other visits from other European and EU leaders. It is absolutely the right thing to do. This surely goes beyond partisan politics.

    You would think so but judging by social media that it not the case. It's nuts how many people feel the need to mention Brexit (all down to Putin apparently), or imply the Tories are owned by Russian oligarchs (who clearly have been ripped off!), or are only doing this because of partygate (because a deadly and expensive war that threatens European security is clearly what a person would look for to get out of a pickle).

    I think Boris is a bad PM, and was never up to the job, and I'd like him replaced ASAP. But clearly on Putin's war in Ukraine Boris is instinctively on the right side, and he has been willing to do something and take the lead. Boris will probably revert to his usual incompetent and lazy self soon, but right now anyone who is not a crank should acknowledge Boris is doing good.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,810
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    On topic, COVID and NHS waiting lists won’t matter one bit.

    “Will I and my children/grandchildren be better off under Labour?”

    That’s the key question. I have no idea how the politicians will play it and how the public will react.

    Grandchildren? That's a laugh when the client state voters put in place a government that repeatedly raise costs and taxes on the young and triple lock in their pensions. +2.5% for national insurance whilst promising to reduce income tax says it all.
    I’ve made this point many times, but one of the things that made me think Labour were doing better in 2017 than many expected was what a 60-something in a pub told my dad.

    He said “I’ve never voted Labour before, but I don’t want my granddaughters to be lumbered with huge debt from tuition fees.”

    Scrapping tuition fees is popular with older voters, even if it doesn’t benefit them directly.

    Of course, how you find that is another matter, but it doesn’t really matter. The old aren’t quite as selfish as PB makes them out to be.
    What went wrong two years later, then?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,598
    edited April 2022
    Farooq said:

    Given the grumpy nature of PB this morning, we have a someone everyone can hate.

    Out for my morning run, I saw that the local CoE church was doing an Easter procession. Round some of the suburban rounds round the church.

    An idiot in Chelsea Tractor was braying at one of the wardens of the procession that the road was blocked.

    The roads being a rectilinear grid (mostly), he could have reversed about 20 yards and taken another side street or waited literally 2 minutes.

    Sadly nothing surprising there. It's why I have a sneaking regard for these XR people blocking roads. I'm slightly ashamed to say I actively enjoy seeing people who are quick to get frustrated get annoyed.
    Judging by some of the XR types I have met, they are the Chelsea Tractor people of the future.

    At one bank, we checked out the Farcebook profile of a graduate applicant, then had tremendous fun with him at the interview. This is far from uncommon in finance.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,256

    Sandpit said:

    MattW said:

    Sandpit said:

    Get in there! More weapons like that, please.
    Martlet not Starstreak, apparently:
    https://twitter.com/Gabriel64869839/status/1513074787253473283
    More of them too! I’m sure they’re all welcomed by the Ukranians.
    Interesting that Martlet is so inter-compatible with Starstreak (and it's guidance system) that they can be mounted on the same multiple launcher.
    I’m sure the designers and manufacturers of all these weapons systems are very happy indeed, that they have proven so effective against exactly the enemy they would have been designed for, but never expected to actually face.

    One of few good things to have come out of this war, is that the rest of the world can now see that Russian forces are a paper tiger against modern Western weaponry.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,601

    On the visit by the PM to Kyiv and the support for Ukraine, it seems to me that the problem for some people is that the narrative was wrong.

    France and Germany should have been right and the UK Government should have been wrong.

    In the event, the UK government policy has proven to be right and the original policies of France and Germany to be wrong.

    To repeat a favourite quote - when Foch was asked if he was responsible for the Victory on the Marne, in WWI, he paused and replied that he was quite certain that he would have been blamed for the defeat.

    Delusion, people know that UK was the laundry for Russia and its crooks, doubtful if France and Germany got anywhere near them for sucking up Russian cash. At least France and Germany were paying for goods not taking backhanders.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,601

    What on earth is the point of the taxpayer spending funds investigating who leaked stuff about the Sunaks?

    It was no 10! And the inquiry is doomed to fail.

    It will get a few Tories a shedload of cash for doing it and as you say they will point in the wrong direction for sure.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,738

    I’ve stocked up with beer and am on my way again (JJ, were any of your 120 mile weeks hydrated solely with beer?).

    I’m headed for the French border today. Whether I cross it will depend on the time and my tiredness when I get to Portbou (I haven’t booked tonight’s room yet). I could have taken a short route along the coast, but that would have meant walking on a busy road’s hard shoulder, so I’ve for the five mile longer “scenic” route..

    It looks like I’ve got some more climbing to do!

    "JJ, were any of your 120 mile weeks hydrated solely with beer?)."

    Early on, I had a very heavy night at a campsite (I think it as St Bees Head), and found the next day very hard going; so much that I didn't drink heavily for the rest of the walk - a shandy for lunch at a pub was always welcome, though.

    The exception was Campbeltown in Scotland, where I met another coastal walker going around in the other direction, and we all got *very* drunk...
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,663
    edited April 2022
    If you want to blame the government on an ongoing basis, you say too soon. Obviously. Even though it doesn't seem like 44% of the population is sealing themselves away out of fear. Most of these questions asking about attitudes to government policies are downstream to overall government approval, I think. (Or consider Sunak. People loved him when he spent more money than he taxed. They hate him now he taxes them to pay for the spending.)
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    MattW said:

    Sandpit said:

    Get in there! More weapons like that, please.
    Martlet not Starstreak, apparently:
    https://twitter.com/Gabriel64869839/status/1513074787253473283
    More of them too! I’m sure they’re all welcomed by the Ukranians.
    Interesting that Martlet is so inter-compatible with Starstreak (and it's guidance system) that they can be mounted on the same multiple launcher.
    I’m sure the designers and manufacturers of all these weapons systems are very happy indeed, that they have proven so effective against exactly the enemy they would have been designed for, but never expected to actually face.

    One of few good things to have come out of this war, is that the rest of the world can now see that Russian forces are a paper tiger against modern Western weaponry.
    China will be taking note. We need to maintain technology gap over potential adversaries - that means review of academic links as well as commercial. Arms expenditure must also rise unfortunately.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,231
    Roger said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Roger said:

    Heathener said:

    Agree with TSE. I'm one of the majority who believe restrictions were lifted too soon. In fact I think we've gone crackers on this. But then, we didn't bring in restrictions fast enough either. The NHS is on its knees right now and so are other industries. As a friend of mine comments, 'the country has gone to the dogs.' Not a reference to Big Dog.

    And now of course without free LFT's we've no knowledge of the real figures, which just perpetuates the fear. Johnson is an f-ing idiot.

    Speaking of which, he must be cross not to command the front pages. I'm surprised. Only The Observer and Express lead with his photo op trip to Ukraine.

    When everyone knows that Johnson's life is just one giant ego trip even newspapers as crass as the Sun and Mail baulk at being sucked into it
    I hope Zelenskyy is aware of the traditional fate of friends of Johnson. Exploited, abandoned and then ignored is the usual trajectory.
    A true Brit then!

    Remember the old Arab proverb: “it is better to be the enemy of the British than their friend, for they buy their enemies and sell their friends”
    Wasn't that a line from Lawrence of Arabia?
    "There may be honour among thieves, but there's none in politicians."
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,878
    I WANT RUMOURS FROM FRANCE
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,839
    Sandpit said:

    .

    One of few good things to have come out of this war, is that the rest of the world can now see that Russian forces are a paper tiger against modern Western weaponry.

    I think we can all guess what conclusions the MoD will draw from this. Bear in mind they have already committed to 3.5bn of "efficiency savings" which don't, won't and can't exist. That money will have to be found somewhere and notions such as the Russians are crap and heavy armour is obsolete will be seized upon with opportunistic glee.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,237
    edited April 2022
    Thing on R4 about the McLibel case including recordings of Starmer who defended the activist defendants. Interesting to me is that he sounded almost normal and natural, without the Gordon Brittas (what an hilarious meme that was!) nasal twang he seems to have developed. If he could get back to that, Lab regularly 10pts ahead in the polls!
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,975
    Rumours that a Russian column has been destroyed on the way to Izyum. One wonders how keen they actually are to get to the Donbass.
  • How has Sunak not resigned yet?

    He spent the first 19 months of being Chancellor as a permanent resident of another country.

    Hard to think of many large conflicts of interest.

    How has the Ministerial Code allowed this.

    The arbiter of the Code is the Big Dog. So there is no code.
  • Gary_BurtonGary_Burton Posts: 737
    Leon said:

    I WANT RUMOURS FROM FRANCE

    https://mobile.twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1513102761021349892

    Presumably this is bad for Macron and Melenchon (and good for Le Pen)?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    France, presidential election today:

    Turnout reaches nearly 40% at noon in several rural, southern departments. However, it collapses in the Parisian agglomeration: only 15% voted in Seine-Saint-Denis and Paris, 10 points less than in 2017.


    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1513102761021349892?s=20&t=cdMTU1qov3ibeVzXiXRGaw
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    France, presidential election today:

    Turnout at 12:00 CEST

    ...
    2007: 31.2%
    2012: 28.3%
    2017: 28.5%
    2022: 25.5% (-3)

    Source: Ministry of the Interior

    More: https://europeelects.eu/france


    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1513094924538945536
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,237
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    On topic, COVID and NHS waiting lists won’t matter one bit.

    “Will I and my children/grandchildren be better off under Labour?”

    That’s the key question. I have no idea how the politicians will play it and how the public will react.

    Grandchildren? That's a laugh when the client state voters put in place a government that repeatedly raise costs and taxes on the young and triple lock in their pensions. +2.5% for national insurance whilst promising to reduce income tax says it all.
    I’ve made this point many times, but one of the things that made me think Labour were doing better in 2017 than many expected was what a 60-something in a pub told my dad.

    He said “I’ve never voted Labour before, but I don’t want my granddaughters to be lumbered with huge debt from tuition fees.”

    Scrapping tuition fees is popular with older voters, even if it doesn’t benefit them directly.

    Of course, how you find that is another matter, but it doesn’t really matter. The old aren’t quite as selfish as PB makes them out to be.
    So one bloke in a pub might have voted Labour five years ago.

    Yet this generation of pensioners will be the richest ever and their grandchildren the first in many to be poorer than their parents. The pensioners think that is because they "worked hard all their lives" and that the young "are lazy and fickle". It is actually because of political choices the pensioners have made about where wealth is distributed in society.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,580

    France, presidential election today:

    Turnout reaches nearly 40% at noon in several rural, southern departments. However, it collapses in the Parisian agglomeration: only 15% voted in Seine-Saint-Denis and Paris, 10 points less than in 2017.


    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1513102761021349892?s=20&t=cdMTU1qov3ibeVzXiXRGaw

    How low can Hidalgo go?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,231
    Leon said:

    I WANT RUMOURS FROM FRANCE

    Type it into DALL-E.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,352
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    On topic, COVID and NHS waiting lists won’t matter one bit.

    “Will I and my children/grandchildren be better off under Labour?”

    That’s the key question. I have no idea how the politicians will play it and how the public will react.

    Grandchildren? That's a laugh when the client state voters put in place a government that repeatedly raise costs and taxes on the young and triple lock in their pensions. +2.5% for national insurance whilst promising to reduce income tax says it all.
    I’ve made this point many times, but one of the things that made me think Labour were doing better in 2017 than many expected was what a 60-something in a pub told my dad.

    He said “I’ve never voted Labour before, but I don’t want my granddaughters to be lumbered with huge debt from tuition fees.”

    Scrapping tuition fees is popular with older voters, even if it doesn’t benefit them directly.

    Of course, how you find that is another matter, but it doesn’t really matter. The old aren’t quite as selfish as PB makes them out to be.
    The old aren't as rich as PB makes them out to be, either. Many are dirt-poor, cold, sick and living in crappy rented homes. They've struggled on low pay all their lives, having left school at 15 or 16. By all means push for higher taxes on the wealthy (and their heirs) but pensioner poverty exists and in many parts of the country it's universal.

    The principle behind student debt is that higher education -> greater wealth -> slow easy repayment. The fallacy is leaving it to 18-year-olds to make the market because they have imperfect understanding of the value of a course and its likely effect on their future earnings. There is no "hidden hand" at work to ensure that a degree will pay for itself. That's why the government needs to get more involved.

    But ... academic freedom eh?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,839
    Leon said:

    I WANT RUMOURS FROM FRANCE

    OM are going to sign Mohamed-Ali Cho. (I hope this is true.)
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,231

    How has Sunak not resigned yet?

    He spent the first 19 months of being Chancellor as a permanent resident of another country.

    Hard to think of many large conflicts of interest.

    How has the Ministerial Code allowed this.

    The arbiter of the Code is the Big Dog. So there is no code.
    "The code is more what you'd call 'guidelines' than actual rules.” – Barbossa, Pirates of the Caribbean.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,878
    edited April 2022

    Leon said:

    I WANT RUMOURS FROM FRANCE

    https://mobile.twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1513102761021349892

    Presumably this is bad for Macron and Melenchon (and good for Le Pen)?
    IMAGINE THE HILARITY if Macron does not make the last two

    Who would PB-ers vote for in a Melenchon v Le Pen run off?

    That’s really tricky. If it wasn’t for Putin I’d go for Le Pen, but Putin is there, and her victory would encourage and galvanize him: yuk

    But as far as I can see Melenchon is as mad as Corbyn, and possibly more dangerous, and it is arguable that a Melenchon victory would please Putin even more, as Melenchon is even less keen on NATO than Le Pen, plus Melenchon would fuck the economy

    So I’d go for Le Pen, I guess

    What would others do?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Leon said:

    Is there is a lebettingepolitique.fr where Les Aigles Hurlant is discussing turn-out with a Corsican version of @malcolmg and his “turnipes”?

    I want to read it. I want to hear that the voting in The Beaujolais is “brisque”, and yet the booths outside Nantes are “un desert”

    i thought reddit, but the French don't do reddit. https://www.reddit.com/r/Politiquefrancaise/ has 413 members.

    But this with 6.7k members is entirely next fucking level

    https://www.reddit.com/r/imaginaryelections/

    It is exclusively about literally that: e.g. WH 1960 Prescott S Bush vs Al Gore Sr. I'm blown away. Plus PB que PB.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,846
    edited April 2022

    France, presidential election today:

    Turnout reaches nearly 40% at noon in several rural, southern departments. However, it collapses in the Parisian agglomeration: only 15% voted in Seine-Saint-Denis and Paris, 10 points less than in 2017.


    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1513102761021349892?s=20&t=cdMTU1qov3ibeVzXiXRGaw

    Which suggests Le Pen voters are more committed:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_French_presidential_election#/media/File:Élection_présidentielle_française_de_2017_T1_carte_départements_&_régions.svg
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,256
    Leon said:

    I WANT RUMOURS FROM FRANCE

    Fleetwood Mac, live in Paris:

    https://youtube.com/watch?v=YGo5oDJ721I
  • Regarding the earlier big ups to the Big Dog debate, the problem was absolutism. Which is usually the problem.

    Boris Johnson has been a positive advocate for the Ukrainian position on the international stage and has sent a lot of weapons to be used against Russia. He has also been a disgusting xenophobe uniquely refusing to freely accept Ukrainian women and children fleeing war, instead heading a government that repeatedly called them a security risk and lied about the help not being given.

    He is neither an angel not a devil on the subject. As usual he gives the appearance of making it up as he goes along, pandering to one position (support Ukraine) then another (we don't want these forrin refugees) which despite being utterly contradictory he somehow tries to portray as being consistent.

    Finally, the one-upmanship we have seen and read regarding us vs the EU. If ever there was a time to not care who is doing what and when, it is now. Every positive action helps even if some are bigger than others. Our proxy war with the EU needed to be paused.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,601

    Rumours that a Russian column has been destroyed on the way to Izyum. One wonders how keen they actually are to get to the Donbass.

    Great news , hopefully they got the whole 8 miles of it
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,122
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I WANT RUMOURS FROM FRANCE

    https://mobile.twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1513102761021349892

    Presumably this is bad for Macron and Melenchon (and good for Le Pen)?
    IMAGINE THE HILARITY if Macron does not make the last two

    Who would PB-ers vote for in a Melenchon v Le Pen run off?

    That’s really tricky. If it wasn’t for Putin I’d go for Le Pen, but Putin is there, and her victory would encourage and galvanize him: yuk

    But as far as I can see Melenchon is as mad as Corbyn, and possibly more dangerous, and it is arguable that a Melenchon victory would please Putin even more, as Melenchon is even less keen on NATO than Le Pen, plus Melenchon would fuck the economy

    So I’d go for Le Pen, I guess

    What would others do?
    Le coq et balls spoiler.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Is there is a lebettingepolitique.fr where Les Aigles Hurlant is discussing turn-out with a Corsican version of @malcolmg and his “turnipes”?

    I want to read it. I want to hear that the voting in The Beaujolais is “brisque”, and yet the booths outside Nantes are “un desert”

    Photos of chiens dans les bureaux de vote
    But not the Ministre de l'Économie et des Finances et sa femme after casting their ballot, on thegrounds that he is registered in Santa Monica and she in Kerala.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,846
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I WANT RUMOURS FROM FRANCE

    https://mobile.twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1513102761021349892

    Presumably this is bad for Macron and Melenchon (and good for Le Pen)?
    IMAGINE THE HILARITY if Macron does not make the last two

    Who would PB-ers vote for in a Melenchon v Le Pen run off?

    That’s really tricky. If it wasn’t for Putin I’d go for Le Pen, but Putin is there, and her victory would encourage and galvanize him: yuk

    But as far as I can see Melenchon is as mad as Corbyn, and possibly more dangerous, and it is arguable that a Melenchon victory would please Putin even more, as Melenchon is even less keen on NATO than Le Pen, plus Melenchon would fuck the economy

    So I’d go for Le Pen, I guess

    What would others do?
    Melanchon vs Le Pen would be an astonishing rejection of the political centre and establishment.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,122

    Rumours that a Russian column has been destroyed on the way to Izyum. One wonders how keen they actually are to get to the Donbass.

    There's a hell of a lot of top end Ruskie-killing kit moving east from Kyiv....
  • When is the result of today's first round due ?
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,761
    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    Is there is a lebettingepolitique.fr where Les Aigles Hurlant is discussing turn-out with a Corsican version of @malcolmg and his “turnipes”?

    I want to read it. I want to hear that the voting in The Beaujolais is “brisque”, and yet the booths outside Nantes are “un desert”

    i thought reddit, but the French don't do reddit. https://www.reddit.com/r/Politiquefrancaise/ has 413 members.

    But this with 6.7k members is entirely next fucking level

    https://www.reddit.com/r/imaginaryelections/

    It is exclusively about literally that: e.g. WH 1960 Prescott S Bush vs Al Gore Sr. I'm blown away. Plus PB que PB.
    I am absolutely loving sub-thread "First Round of the 2020 United States presidential election but with the French electoral system but with British politicians but they're in Canadian parties but with America's population"

    https://www.reddit.com/r/imaginaryelections/comments/tzagzs/first_round_of_the_2020_united_states/
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,231
    IshmaelZ said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Is there is a lebettingepolitique.fr where Les Aigles Hurlant is discussing turn-out with a Corsican version of @malcolmg and his “turnipes”?

    I want to read it. I want to hear that the voting in The Beaujolais is “brisque”, and yet the booths outside Nantes are “un desert”

    Photos of chiens dans les bureaux de vote
    But not the Ministre de l'Économie et des Finances et sa femme after casting their ballot, on thegrounds that he is registered in Santa Monica and she in Kerala.
    Karnataka, not Kerala.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,122
    malcolmg said:

    Rumours that a Russian column has been destroyed on the way to Izyum. One wonders how keen they actually are to get to the Donbass.

    Great news , hopefully they got the whole 8 miles of it
    The guys at Oryx Ukraine going "Oh shit, really?"
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,256

    Rumours that a Russian column has been destroyed on the way to Izyum. One wonders how keen they actually are to get to the Donbass.

    There's a hell of a lot of top end Ruskie-killing kit moving east from Kyiv....
    I wonder how long it will take to secure an airfield and airspace somewhere near Kiev, to allow the West to start up the military supplies airbridge again?
  • Rumours that a Russian column has been destroyed on the way to Izyum. One wonders how keen they actually are to get to the Donbass.

    There's a hell of a lot of top end Ruskie-killing kit moving east from Kyiv....
    Seems we are sending anti ship missiles which I assume are to defend Odessa

    This is de facto arming of Ukraine by the UK and I do support it and hope it is expanded further by NATO as a whole
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,810

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    On topic, COVID and NHS waiting lists won’t matter one bit.

    “Will I and my children/grandchildren be better off under Labour?”

    That’s the key question. I have no idea how the politicians will play it and how the public will react.

    Grandchildren? That's a laugh when the client state voters put in place a government that repeatedly raise costs and taxes on the young and triple lock in their pensions. +2.5% for national insurance whilst promising to reduce income tax says it all.
    I’ve made this point many times, but one of the things that made me think Labour were doing better in 2017 than many expected was what a 60-something in a pub told my dad.

    He said “I’ve never voted Labour before, but I don’t want my granddaughters to be lumbered with huge debt from tuition fees.”

    Scrapping tuition fees is popular with older voters, even if it doesn’t benefit them directly.

    Of course, how you find that is another matter, but it doesn’t really matter. The old aren’t quite as selfish as PB makes them out to be.
    So one bloke in a pub might have voted Labour five years ago.

    Yet this generation of pensioners will be the richest ever and their grandchildren the first in many to be poorer than their parents. The pensioners think that is because they "worked hard all their lives" and that the young "are lazy and fickle". It is actually because of political choices the pensioners have made about where wealth is distributed in society.
    Mrs C and I often think about how we were the 'lucky generation'. Or at least those a bit younger than us were. We were children in wartime and during rationing, which at least meant that our young teeth weren't corrupted with sugary drinks and sweets. We had free higher education, although it was assumed by the authorities that one's parents would pay maintenance (which wasn't always the case) I think those born in the late 40's probably did as well as any; 20 or so in the late 60's.
    Certainly tougher for our grandchildren.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042

    When is the result of today's first round due ?

    Exit poll at 6pm I think. Last time the exit was really accurate and they counted enough for us to confirm it in like 3 hours or something.
  • Quincel said:

    When is the result of today's first round due ?

    Exit poll at 6pm I think. Last time the exit was really accurate and they counted enough for us to confirm it in like 3 hours or something.
    Thank you
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,122

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    MattW said:

    Sandpit said:

    Get in there! More weapons like that, please.
    Martlet not Starstreak, apparently:
    https://twitter.com/Gabriel64869839/status/1513074787253473283
    More of them too! I’m sure they’re all welcomed by the Ukranians.
    Interesting that Martlet is so inter-compatible with Starstreak (and it's guidance system) that they can be mounted on the same multiple launcher.
    I’m sure the designers and manufacturers of all these weapons systems are very happy indeed, that they have proven so effective against exactly the enemy they would have been designed for, but never expected to actually face.

    One of few good things to have come out of this war, is that the rest of the world can now see that Russian forces are a paper tiger against modern Western weaponry.
    China will be taking note. We need to maintain technology gap over potential adversaries - that means review of academic links as well as commercial. Arms expenditure must also rise unfortunately.
    Taiwan will also be taking note. Looks like the defenders need to spend $1 for each $1,000 the attackers need to spend. So a few billion $'s in defensive weapons orders coming right up....
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,761

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    On topic, COVID and NHS waiting lists won’t matter one bit.

    “Will I and my children/grandchildren be better off under Labour?”

    That’s the key question. I have no idea how the politicians will play it and how the public will react.

    Grandchildren? That's a laugh when the client state voters put in place a government that repeatedly raise costs and taxes on the young and triple lock in their pensions. +2.5% for national insurance whilst promising to reduce income tax says it all.
    I’ve made this point many times, but one of the things that made me think Labour were doing better in 2017 than many expected was what a 60-something in a pub told my dad.

    He said “I’ve never voted Labour before, but I don’t want my granddaughters to be lumbered with huge debt from tuition fees.”

    Scrapping tuition fees is popular with older voters, even if it doesn’t benefit them directly.

    Of course, how you find that is another matter, but it doesn’t really matter. The old aren’t quite as selfish as PB makes them out to be.
    So one bloke in a pub might have voted Labour five years ago.

    Yet this generation of pensioners will be the richest ever and their grandchildren the first in many to be poorer than their parents. The pensioners think that is because they "worked hard all their lives" and that the young "are lazy and fickle". It is actually because of political choices the pensioners have made about where wealth is distributed in society.
    Mrs C and I often think about how we were the 'lucky generation'. Or at least those a bit younger than us were. We were children in wartime and during rationing, which at least meant that our young teeth weren't corrupted with sugary drinks and sweets. We had free higher education, although it was assumed by the authorities that one's parents would pay maintenance (which wasn't always the case) I think those born in the late 40's probably did as well as any; 20 or so in the late 60's.
    Certainly tougher for our grandchildren.
    I admire your glass half-full mentality OKC when you can consider being a kid in wartime rationing a positive thing.
  • tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    On topic, COVID and NHS waiting lists won’t matter one bit.

    “Will I and my children/grandchildren be better off under Labour?”

    That’s the key question. I have no idea how the politicians will play it and how the public will react.

    Grandchildren? That's a laugh when the client state voters put in place a government that repeatedly raise costs and taxes on the young and triple lock in their pensions. +2.5% for national insurance whilst promising to reduce income tax says it all.
    I’ve made this point many times, but one of the things that made me think Labour were doing better in 2017 than many expected was what a 60-something in a pub told my dad.

    He said “I’ve never voted Labour before, but I don’t want my granddaughters to be lumbered with huge debt from tuition fees.”

    Scrapping tuition fees is popular with older voters, even if it doesn’t benefit them directly.

    Of course, how you find that is another matter, but it doesn’t really matter. The old aren’t quite as selfish as PB makes them out to be.
    So one bloke in a pub might have voted Labour five years ago.

    Yet this generation of pensioners will be the richest ever and their grandchildren the first in many to be poorer than their parents. The pensioners think that is because they "worked hard all their lives" and that the young "are lazy and fickle". It is actually because of political choices the pensioners have made about where wealth is distributed in society.
    Mrs C and I often think about how we were the 'lucky generation'. Or at least those a bit younger than us were. We were children in wartime and during rationing, which at least meant that our young teeth weren't corrupted with sugary drinks and sweets. We had free higher education, although it was assumed by the authorities that one's parents would pay maintenance (which wasn't always the case) I think those born in the late 40's probably did as well as any; 20 or so in the late 60's.
    Certainly tougher for our grandchildren.
    We are in a similar age range and agree with you
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,023
    edited April 2022

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    On topic, COVID and NHS waiting lists won’t matter one bit.

    “Will I and my children/grandchildren be better off under Labour?”

    That’s the key question. I have no idea how the politicians will play it and how the public will react.

    Grandchildren? That's a laugh when the client state voters put in place a government that repeatedly raise costs and taxes on the young and triple lock in their pensions. +2.5% for national insurance whilst promising to reduce income tax says it all.
    I’ve made this point many times, but one of the things that made me think Labour were doing better in 2017 than many expected was what a 60-something in a pub told my dad.

    He said “I’ve never voted Labour before, but I don’t want my granddaughters to be lumbered with huge debt from tuition fees.”

    Scrapping tuition fees is popular with older voters, even if it doesn’t benefit them directly.

    Of course, how you find that is another matter, but it doesn’t really matter. The old aren’t quite as selfish as PB makes them out to be.
    So one bloke in a pub might have voted Labour five years ago.

    Yet this generation of pensioners will be the richest ever and their grandchildren the first in many to be poorer than their parents. The pensioners think that is because they "worked hard all their lives" and that the young "are lazy and fickle". It is actually because of political choices the pensioners have made about where wealth is distributed in society.
    Mrs C and I often think about how we were the 'lucky generation'. Or at least those a bit younger than us were. We were children in wartime and during rationing, which at least meant that our young teeth weren't corrupted with sugary drinks and sweets. We had free higher education, although it was assumed by the authorities that one's parents would pay maintenance (which wasn't always the case) I think those born in the late 40's probably did as well as any; 20 or so in the late 60's.
    Certainly tougher for our grandchildren.
    The main reason it's tougher is because it's difficult to get on the property ladder, and the main reason for that is because the population has increased from 54 million to 68 million over the last 30 years or so. By contrast between roughly 1970 and 1990 it hardly increased at all.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 24,152

    malcolmg said:

    Rumours that a Russian column has been destroyed on the way to Izyum. One wonders how keen they actually are to get to the Donbass.

    Great news , hopefully they got the whole 8 miles of it
    The guys at Oryx Ukraine going "Oh shit, really?"
    They seem to be two different columns.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,256
    Andy_JS said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    On topic, COVID and NHS waiting lists won’t matter one bit.

    “Will I and my children/grandchildren be better off under Labour?”

    That’s the key question. I have no idea how the politicians will play it and how the public will react.

    Grandchildren? That's a laugh when the client state voters put in place a government that repeatedly raise costs and taxes on the young and triple lock in their pensions. +2.5% for national insurance whilst promising to reduce income tax says it all.
    I’ve made this point many times, but one of the things that made me think Labour were doing better in 2017 than many expected was what a 60-something in a pub told my dad.

    He said “I’ve never voted Labour before, but I don’t want my granddaughters to be lumbered with huge debt from tuition fees.”

    Scrapping tuition fees is popular with older voters, even if it doesn’t benefit them directly.

    Of course, how you find that is another matter, but it doesn’t really matter. The old aren’t quite as selfish as PB makes them out to be.
    So one bloke in a pub might have voted Labour five years ago.

    Yet this generation of pensioners will be the richest ever and their grandchildren the first in many to be poorer than their parents. The pensioners think that is because they "worked hard all their lives" and that the young "are lazy and fickle". It is actually because of political choices the pensioners have made about where wealth is distributed in society.
    Mrs C and I often think about how we were the 'lucky generation'. Or at least those a bit younger than us were. We were children in wartime and during rationing, which at least meant that our young teeth weren't corrupted with sugary drinks and sweets. We had free higher education, although it was assumed by the authorities that one's parents would pay maintenance (which wasn't always the case) I think those born in the late 40's probably did as well as any; 20 or so in the late 60's.
    Certainly tougher for our grandchildren.
    The main reason it's tougher is because it's difficult to get on the property ladder, and the main reason for that is because the population has increased from 54 million to 68 million over the last 30 years or so. By contrast between roughly 1970 and 1990 it hardly increased at all.
    Indeed. There’s no solution that doesn’t include an awful lot of housebuilding.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    Is there is a lebettingepolitique.fr where Les Aigles Hurlant is discussing turn-out with a Corsican version of @malcolmg and his “turnipes”?

    I want to read it. I want to hear that the voting in The Beaujolais is “brisque”, and yet the booths outside Nantes are “un desert”

    i thought reddit, but the French don't do reddit. https://www.reddit.com/r/Politiquefrancaise/ has 413 members.

    But this with 6.7k members is entirely next fucking level

    https://www.reddit.com/r/imaginaryelections/

    It is exclusively about literally that: e.g. WH 1960 Prescott S Bush vs Al Gore Sr. I'm blown away. Plus PB que PB.
    I am absolutely loving sub-thread "First Round of the 2020 United States presidential election but with the French electoral system but with British politicians but they're in Canadian parties but with America's population"

    https://www.reddit.com/r/imaginaryelections/comments/tzagzs/first_round_of_the_2020_united_states/
    It is sensational stuff. Can we do some kind of merger?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited April 2022
    Le Pen's strongholds are a mixed bag, but Pas-de-Calais stands out:

    Aisne turnout at 12 is 22.9 % (down from 27.6%), MLP17 vote: 35.6.
    Pas-de-Calais 29.2% (up from 23.4%) MLP17 vote: 34.3.
    Haute-Marne 26% (35%) MLP17 vote: 33.2.
    Ardennes 24.0% (24.3%) MLP17 vote: 32.4.


    https://twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1513109126511054853
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,810

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    On topic, COVID and NHS waiting lists won’t matter one bit.

    “Will I and my children/grandchildren be better off under Labour?”

    That’s the key question. I have no idea how the politicians will play it and how the public will react.

    Grandchildren? That's a laugh when the client state voters put in place a government that repeatedly raise costs and taxes on the young and triple lock in their pensions. +2.5% for national insurance whilst promising to reduce income tax says it all.
    I’ve made this point many times, but one of the things that made me think Labour were doing better in 2017 than many expected was what a 60-something in a pub told my dad.

    He said “I’ve never voted Labour before, but I don’t want my granddaughters to be lumbered with huge debt from tuition fees.”

    Scrapping tuition fees is popular with older voters, even if it doesn’t benefit them directly.

    Of course, how you find that is another matter, but it doesn’t really matter. The old aren’t quite as selfish as PB makes them out to be.
    So one bloke in a pub might have voted Labour five years ago.

    Yet this generation of pensioners will be the richest ever and their grandchildren the first in many to be poorer than their parents. The pensioners think that is because they "worked hard all their lives" and that the young "are lazy and fickle". It is actually because of political choices the pensioners have made about where wealth is distributed in society.
    Mrs C and I often think about how we were the 'lucky generation'. Or at least those a bit younger than us were. We were children in wartime and during rationing, which at least meant that our young teeth weren't corrupted with sugary drinks and sweets. We had free higher education, although it was assumed by the authorities that one's parents would pay maintenance (which wasn't always the case) I think those born in the late 40's probably did as well as any; 20 or so in the late 60's.
    Certainly tougher for our grandchildren.
    I admire your glass half-full mentality OKC when you can consider being a kid in wartime rationing a positive thing.
    I have worked with NHS Community Dental clinics, where milk teeth had to removed from toddlers because they were rotten.
    No-one of my generation was propped up in a pram sucking a lolly.
    And, TBH, I don't remember being hungry as in my parents not being able to feed us. Admittedly when Cole père came back from the RAF he went back to his teaching job, and mother had run her pharmacy rightbthrough the war. Although I knew enough even then to know her life hadn't been easy.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Germany’s Rheinmetall says it can deliver 35 “Marder” light tanks to Ukraine until the end of this year, out of which 15 could be ready in four months, BILD reports. Too late for Ukraine?

    (On Friday we reported that Germany ruled out an immediate delivery of tanks from its army)


    https://twitter.com/vonderburchard/status/1513108357011365888
  • MattWMattW Posts: 24,152
    edited April 2022
    Farooq said:

    Given the grumpy nature of PB this morning, we have a someone everyone can hate.

    Out for my morning run, I saw that the local CoE church was doing an Easter procession. Round some of the suburban rounds round the church.

    An idiot in Chelsea Tractor was braying at one of the wardens of the procession that the road was blocked.

    The roads being a rectilinear grid (mostly), he could have reversed about 20 yards and taken another side street or waited literally 2 minutes.

    Sadly nothing surprising there. It's why I have a sneaking regard for these XR people blocking roads. I'm slightly ashamed to say I actively enjoy seeing people who are quick to get frustrated get annoyed.
    I don't think a Churchwarden will have much trouble with a Tonka Tanker :smile: .

    "Do that in my churchyard, and I will place you under arrest".

    And no, I don't share any sneaky regard for ER, as they think their opinions give them the right to cause hurt to vulnerable people.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,637
    edited April 2022

    Rumours that a Russian column has been destroyed on the way to Izyum. One wonders how keen they actually are to get to the Donbass.

    There's a hell of a lot of top end Ruskie-killing kit moving east from Kyiv....
    Seems we are sending anti ship missiles which I assume are to defend Odessa

    This is de facto arming of Ukraine by the UK and I do support it and hope it is expanded further by NATO as a whole
    Still major questions about Mr Johnson's promise of those missiles. The UK doesn't have any in service that can be launched from the shore as they are, because you need the radar and electronics to point the missiles in the right direction. The Navy has just stopped using one type on its ships (which, NB, have the radar on them). It's possible that the missiles can be added to a similar type the Danes use which is apparently alreadu set up for land use, but otherwise, it's not at all clear whether those missiles are available at all or if some have to be built.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,738
    Sandpit said:

    Rumours that a Russian column has been destroyed on the way to Izyum. One wonders how keen they actually are to get to the Donbass.

    There's a hell of a lot of top end Ruskie-killing kit moving east from Kyiv....
    I wonder how long it will take to secure an airfield and airspace somewhere near Kiev, to allow the West to start up the military supplies airbridge again?
    Surely that's a bad idea, as it would be well within range of Russian SAM systems. And to be fair to the Russians, they would not necessarily know if they were foreign transport planes or Ukrainian combat ones. IMO they'd be fair targets, and you can buy or hire lots of lorries for the price of a single A400M...
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492

    Leon said:

    I WANT RUMOURS FROM FRANCE

    https://mobile.twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1513102761021349892

    Presumably this is bad for Macron and Melenchon (and good for Le Pen)?
    Where did those numbers come form? I thought that 'numbers' any numbers including allusions to tern out, could not be released till after poles close? so I doubt its official numbers, I suppose that there could be a private company doing an 'Exit pole' style serve that is released internationally but not in France until poles close, but that would seem to be, cutting very close to braking the law if not actually braking French law?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,598
    malcolmg said:

    On the visit by the PM to Kyiv and the support for Ukraine, it seems to me that the problem for some people is that the narrative was wrong.

    France and Germany should have been right and the UK Government should have been wrong.

    In the event, the UK government policy has proven to be right and the original policies of France and Germany to be wrong.

    To repeat a favourite quote - when Foch was asked if he was responsible for the Victory on the Marne, in WWI, he paused and replied that he was quite certain that he would have been blamed for the defeat.

    Delusion, people know that UK was the laundry for Russia and its crooks, doubtful if France and Germany got anywhere near them for sucking up Russian cash. At least France and Germany were paying for goods not taking backhanders.
    Paying for goods to the current Russian government is *giving* backhanders.

    That's how Putinism works - the Thieves By Statute get to steal 10-20% off the top of every deal. Putin gets a cut.

    In addition, a number of European politicians were quite openly receiving "consultancy" jobs etc from Russia state enterprising. Schroeder was simply the most shameless.

    The Nord Stream 2 project was all about being able to sell gas to Western Europe, while being able to cut off Eastern Europe at whim. It was quite explicitly selling Eastern Europe (including Ukraine) to Russia.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,691
    IshmaelZ said:

    The Times has some new polling from @IpsosUK:

    Is Sunak doing a good or bad job?

    Good: 30% (-2)
    Bad: 37% (+4)

    Trust to reduce cost of living:

    Lab: 43% (+3)
    Con: 25% (-1)

    Changes with 24-25 March, not sure when the new fieldwork was (may be before non-dom story).

    And this is why Labour will remain ahead and the lead will increase

    That is a killer for con.
    Will Libdems get a lot more votes if swing voters trust Labour on these sort of things?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Read this interview with Karaganov (reliable bellwether of 🇷🇺ruling elite majority consensus).

    If afterwards you still harbor any illusions about sustainable negotiated settlement with Putin's Kremlin on European security order read it again. And again.


    https://twitter.com/thorstenbenner/status/1513039187527806977
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,738
    Carnyx said:

    Rumours that a Russian column has been destroyed on the way to Izyum. One wonders how keen they actually are to get to the Donbass.

    There's a hell of a lot of top end Ruskie-killing kit moving east from Kyiv....
    Seems we are sending anti ship missiles which I assume are to defend Odessa

    This is de facto arming of Ukraine by the UK and I do support it and hope it is expanded further by NATO as a whole
    Still major questions about Mr Johnson's promise of those missiles. The UK doesn't have any in service that can be launched from the shore as they are, because you need the radar and electronics to point the missiles in the right direction. The Navy has just stopped using one type on its ships (which, NB, have the radar on them). It's possible that the missiles can be added to a similar type the Danes use which is apparently alreadu set up for land use, but otherwise, it's not at all clear whether those missiles are available at all or if some have to be built.
    There are questions, but as far as I'm aware we've been fairly honest about our deliveries to Ukraine; delivering what we said we would. Unlike, say, Germany.

    If we say we're going to deliver the capability, I'd be willing to assume we'd do so. We'll learn the answers to those questions soon enough...
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,810
    edited April 2022
    Andy_JS said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    On topic, COVID and NHS waiting lists won’t matter one bit.

    “Will I and my children/grandchildren be better off under Labour?”

    That’s the key question. I have no idea how the politicians will play it and how the public will react.

    Grandchildren? That's a laugh when the client state voters put in place a government that repeatedly raise costs and taxes on the young and triple lock in their pensions. +2.5% for national insurance whilst promising to reduce income tax says it all.
    I’ve made this point many times, but one of the things that made me think Labour were doing better in 2017 than many expected was what a 60-something in a pub told my dad.

    He said “I’ve never voted Labour before, but I don’t want my granddaughters to be lumbered with huge debt from tuition fees.”

    Scrapping tuition fees is popular with older voters, even if it doesn’t benefit them directly.

    Of course, how you find that is another matter, but it doesn’t really matter. The old aren’t quite as selfish as PB makes them out to be.
    So one bloke in a pub might have voted Labour five years ago.

    Yet this generation of pensioners will be the richest ever and their grandchildren the first in many to be poorer than their parents. The pensioners think that is because they "worked hard all their lives" and that the young "are lazy and fickle". It is actually because of political choices the pensioners have made about where wealth is distributed in society.
    Mrs C and I often think about how we were the 'lucky generation'. Or at least those a bit younger than us were. We were children in wartime and during rationing, which at least meant that our young teeth weren't corrupted with sugary drinks and sweets. We had free higher education, although it was assumed by the authorities that one's parents would pay maintenance (which wasn't always the case) I think those born in the late 40's probably did as well as any; 20 or so in the late 60's.
    Certainly tougher for our grandchildren.
    The main reason it's tougher is because it's difficult to get on the property ladder, and the main reason for that is because the population has increased from 54 million to 68 million over the last 30 years or so. By contrast between roughly 1970 and 1990 it hardly increased at all.
    My late father-in-law worked, when he left school in the early 30's, for the municipal housing office in his home, Lancashire mill, town. There was a lot of slum clearance going on and they were building houses. On his first day he was told to put his name down for a house. At 16 he asked why. "Because when you get to wanting one, you'll be high on the list" he was told, and indeed seven or so years later he and his bride were able to move into a newly built house.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,023
    edited April 2022
    "Chancellor orders hunt for 'Red Throat' leaker of billionaire heiress wife's non-dom tax status as he moves family out of Downing St and friends say he might quit politics completely - while personal ratings plunge again

    Rishi Sunak moves family out from No 11 flat amid public scrutiny over tax affairs
    Friends of the Chancellor said he considered quitting the Cabinet over backlash
    Opponents called on the White House to investigate his previous US green card
    US rules say card holders should not be 'employed by a foreign Government"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10704465/Rishi-orders-hunt-Red-Throat-leaker-wifes-non-dom-tax-status.html
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,878
    Come on guys, don’t be feeble

    FORCED CHOICE

    Melenchon v Le Pen

    Which do you choose? Just abstaining or spoiling your ballot is leaving this invidious choice to others, which is somewhat lame
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,839
    Andy_JS said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    On topic, COVID and NHS waiting lists won’t matter one bit.

    “Will I and my children/grandchildren be better off under Labour?”

    That’s the key question. I have no idea how the politicians will play it and how the public will react.

    Grandchildren? That's a laugh when the client state voters put in place a government that repeatedly raise costs and taxes on the young and triple lock in their pensions. +2.5% for national insurance whilst promising to reduce income tax says it all.
    I’ve made this point many times, but one of the things that made me think Labour were doing better in 2017 than many expected was what a 60-something in a pub told my dad.

    He said “I’ve never voted Labour before, but I don’t want my granddaughters to be lumbered with huge debt from tuition fees.”

    Scrapping tuition fees is popular with older voters, even if it doesn’t benefit them directly.

    Of course, how you find that is another matter, but it doesn’t really matter. The old aren’t quite as selfish as PB makes them out to be.
    So one bloke in a pub might have voted Labour five years ago.

    Yet this generation of pensioners will be the richest ever and their grandchildren the first in many to be poorer than their parents. The pensioners think that is because they "worked hard all their lives" and that the young "are lazy and fickle". It is actually because of political choices the pensioners have made about where wealth is distributed in society.
    Mrs C and I often think about how we were the 'lucky generation'. Or at least those a bit younger than us were. We were children in wartime and during rationing, which at least meant that our young teeth weren't corrupted with sugary drinks and sweets. We had free higher education, although it was assumed by the authorities that one's parents would pay maintenance (which wasn't always the case) I think those born in the late 40's probably did as well as any; 20 or so in the late 60's.
    Certainly tougher for our grandchildren.
    The main reason it's tougher is because it's difficult to get on the property ladder, and the main reason for that is because the population has increased from 54 million to 68 million over the last 30 years or so. By contrast between roughly 1970 and 1990 it hardly increased at all.
    My cousin's son is a Fg Off in the RAF so he's probably making about 35k. The silly sod has just bunned up his pawg gf and she wants to buy a house. For duty reasons he has to live close to Brize-Norton and average house price around there seems to be about 400k! WTF is he supposed to do? The answer in his case is leave as soon as his return of service is up and go to Qatar Airways but that isn't a universally accessible solution. Young people are getting absolutely fucked.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,637

    Carnyx said:

    Rumours that a Russian column has been destroyed on the way to Izyum. One wonders how keen they actually are to get to the Donbass.

    There's a hell of a lot of top end Ruskie-killing kit moving east from Kyiv....
    Seems we are sending anti ship missiles which I assume are to defend Odessa

    This is de facto arming of Ukraine by the UK and I do support it and hope it is expanded further by NATO as a whole
    Still major questions about Mr Johnson's promise of those missiles. The UK doesn't have any in service that can be launched from the shore as they are, because you need the radar and electronics to point the missiles in the right direction. The Navy has just stopped using one type on its ships (which, NB, have the radar on them). It's possible that the missiles can be added to a similar type the Danes use which is apparently alreadu set up for land use, but otherwise, it's not at all clear whether those missiles are available at all or if some have to be built.
    There are questions, but as far as I'm aware we've been fairly honest about our deliveries to Ukraine; delivering what we said we would. Unlike, say, Germany.

    If we say we're going to deliver the capability, I'd be willing to assume we'd do so. We'll learn the answers to those questions soon enough...
    Oh yes! I did wince when I saw the PM on his own with Mr Z. I did wonder what promises he was making without his handlers ...
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,810

    Carnyx said:

    Rumours that a Russian column has been destroyed on the way to Izyum. One wonders how keen they actually are to get to the Donbass.

    There's a hell of a lot of top end Ruskie-killing kit moving east from Kyiv....
    Seems we are sending anti ship missiles which I assume are to defend Odessa

    This is de facto arming of Ukraine by the UK and I do support it and hope it is expanded further by NATO as a whole
    Still major questions about Mr Johnson's promise of those missiles. The UK doesn't have any in service that can be launched from the shore as they are, because you need the radar and electronics to point the missiles in the right direction. The Navy has just stopped using one type on its ships (which, NB, have the radar on them). It's possible that the missiles can be added to a similar type the Danes use which is apparently alreadu set up for land use, but otherwise, it's not at all clear whether those missiles are available at all or if some have to be built.
    There are questions, but as far as I'm aware we've been fairly honest about our deliveries to Ukraine; delivering what we said we would. Unlike, say, Germany.

    If we say we're going to deliver the capability, I'd be willing to assume we'd do so. We'll learn the answers to those questions soon enough...
    What Mr C is saying, I think, is that the missiles, as described, are of little practical use.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,878
    In a fish restaurant, staring at the Aegean

    Flight home tonight. Sigh

    I believe I could do this happily for the rest of my life. Just drift around the Med, eating at different fish restaurants, staring at the sea

    Just that. Read a few books. Coffee. Stroll. More fish
  • Leon said:

    In a fish restaurant, staring at the Aegean

    Flight home tonight. Sigh

    I believe I could do this happily for the rest of my life. Just drift around the Med, eating at different fish restaurants, staring at the sea

    Just that. Read a few books. Coffee. Stroll. More fish

    You need some more booze in that mix!
  • Dura_Ace said:

    Andy_JS said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    On topic, COVID and NHS waiting lists won’t matter one bit.

    “Will I and my children/grandchildren be better off under Labour?”

    That’s the key question. I have no idea how the politicians will play it and how the public will react.

    Grandchildren? That's a laugh when the client state voters put in place a government that repeatedly raise costs and taxes on the young and triple lock in their pensions. +2.5% for national insurance whilst promising to reduce income tax says it all.
    I’ve made this point many times, but one of the things that made me think Labour were doing better in 2017 than many expected was what a 60-something in a pub told my dad.

    He said “I’ve never voted Labour before, but I don’t want my granddaughters to be lumbered with huge debt from tuition fees.”

    Scrapping tuition fees is popular with older voters, even if it doesn’t benefit them directly.

    Of course, how you find that is another matter, but it doesn’t really matter. The old aren’t quite as selfish as PB makes them out to be.
    So one bloke in a pub might have voted Labour five years ago.

    Yet this generation of pensioners will be the richest ever and their grandchildren the first in many to be poorer than their parents. The pensioners think that is because they "worked hard all their lives" and that the young "are lazy and fickle". It is actually because of political choices the pensioners have made about where wealth is distributed in society.
    Mrs C and I often think about how we were the 'lucky generation'. Or at least those a bit younger than us were. We were children in wartime and during rationing, which at least meant that our young teeth weren't corrupted with sugary drinks and sweets. We had free higher education, although it was assumed by the authorities that one's parents would pay maintenance (which wasn't always the case) I think those born in the late 40's probably did as well as any; 20 or so in the late 60's.
    Certainly tougher for our grandchildren.
    The main reason it's tougher is because it's difficult to get on the property ladder, and the main reason for that is because the population has increased from 54 million to 68 million over the last 30 years or so. By contrast between roughly 1970 and 1990 it hardly increased at all.
    My cousin's son is a Fg Off in the RAF so he's probably making about 35k. The silly sod has just bunned up his pawg gf and she wants to buy a house. For duty reasons he has to live close to Brize-Norton and average house price around there seems to be about 400k! WTF is he supposed to do? The answer in his case is leave as soon as his return of service is up and go to Qatar Airways but that isn't a universally accessible solution. Young people are getting absolutely fucked.
    Did there used to be housing on the base...?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,691

    Le Pen's strongholds are a mixed bag, but Pas-de-Calais stands out:

    Aisne turnout at 12 is 22.9 % (down from 27.6%), MLP17 vote: 35.6.
    Pas-de-Calais 29.2% (up from 23.4%) MLP17 vote: 34.3.
    Haute-Marne 26% (35%) MLP17 vote: 33.2.
    Ardennes 24.0% (24.3%) MLP17 vote: 32.4.


    https://twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1513109126511054853

    I’m still serenely expecting Melenchon to make top two and go on to be President comfortably in second round. That’s where my bets have been for over a month, and with many pollsters the Melenchon to Le pen gap closed late like I expected it.

    Macron lost this election in 2014. To be serial winner you have to steal some of your opponents popular policies and put them with your own. Macron’s my way or Highway approach has put him on the Highway.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,846
    Leon said:

    In a fish restaurant, staring at the Aegean

    Flight home tonight. Sigh

    I believe I could do this happily for the rest of my life. Just drift around the Med, eating at different fish restaurants, staring at the sea

    Just that. Read a few books. Coffee. Stroll. More fish

    So why don't you ?

    Lots of historic sites to see as well.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,651
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I WANT RUMOURS FROM FRANCE

    https://mobile.twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1513102761021349892

    Presumably this is bad for Macron and Melenchon (and good for Le Pen)?
    IMAGINE THE HILARITY if Macron does not make the last two

    Who would PB-ers vote for in a Melenchon v Le Pen run off?

    That’s really tricky. If it wasn’t for Putin I’d go for Le Pen, but Putin is there, and her victory would encourage and galvanize him: yuk

    But as far as I can see Melenchon is as mad as Corbyn, and possibly more dangerous, and it is arguable that a Melenchon victory would please Putin even more, as Melenchon is even less keen on NATO than Le Pen, plus Melenchon would fuck the economy

    So I’d go for Le Pen, I guess

    What would others do?
    There was briefly a period in which it seemed possible Macron would not certainly make it, which would have been amusingly humiliating, though thankfully not occurred.

    The alternative does seem to be a very awful choice. I've never thought of spoiling a ballot before it not voting but I could understand it well there.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,878
    BigRich said:

    Leon said:

    I WANT RUMOURS FROM FRANCE

    https://mobile.twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1513102761021349892

    Presumably this is bad for Macron and Melenchon (and good for Le Pen)?
    Where did those numbers come form? I thought that 'numbers' any numbers including allusions to tern out, could not be released till after poles close? so I doubt its official numbers, I suppose that there could be a private company doing an 'Exit pole' style serve that is released internationally but not in France until poles close, but that would seem to be, cutting very close to braking the law if not actually braking French law?
    I’ve seen french outlets reporting turn-out so I presumed THAT is legal? Also it’s very hard to stop people simply observing how big the queues for the voting booths might be

    However, I am in Turkey so perhaps this is French agencies reporting OUTSIDE France, thus evading the law?

    We need a French political expert
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,122
    Leon said:

    Come on guys, don’t be feeble

    FORCED CHOICE

    Melenchon v Le Pen

    Which do you choose? Just abstaining or spoiling your ballot is leaving this invidious choice to others, which is somewhat lame

    What to do when the choice is somewhat lame?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,810
    Dura_Ace said:

    Andy_JS said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    On topic, COVID and NHS waiting lists won’t matter one bit.

    “Will I and my children/grandchildren be better off under Labour?”

    That’s the key question. I have no idea how the politicians will play it and how the public will react.

    Grandchildren? That's a laugh when the client state voters put in place a government that repeatedly raise costs and taxes on the young and triple lock in their pensions. +2.5% for national insurance whilst promising to reduce income tax says it all.
    I’ve made this point many times, but one of the things that made me think Labour were doing better in 2017 than many expected was what a 60-something in a pub told my dad.

    He said “I’ve never voted Labour before, but I don’t want my granddaughters to be lumbered with huge debt from tuition fees.”

    Scrapping tuition fees is popular with older voters, even if it doesn’t benefit them directly.

    Of course, how you find that is another matter, but it doesn’t really matter. The old aren’t quite as selfish as PB makes them out to be.
    So one bloke in a pub might have voted Labour five years ago.

    Yet this generation of pensioners will be the richest ever and their grandchildren the first in many to be poorer than their parents. The pensioners think that is because they "worked hard all their lives" and that the young "are lazy and fickle". It is actually because of political choices the pensioners have made about where wealth is distributed in society.
    Mrs C and I often think about how we were the 'lucky generation'. Or at least those a bit younger than us were. We were children in wartime and during rationing, which at least meant that our young teeth weren't corrupted with sugary drinks and sweets. We had free higher education, although it was assumed by the authorities that one's parents would pay maintenance (which wasn't always the case) I think those born in the late 40's probably did as well as any; 20 or so in the late 60's.
    Certainly tougher for our grandchildren.
    The main reason it's tougher is because it's difficult to get on the property ladder, and the main reason for that is because the population has increased from 54 million to 68 million over the last 30 years or so. By contrast between roughly 1970 and 1990 it hardly increased at all.
    My cousin's son is a Fg Off in the RAF so he's probably making about 35k. The silly sod has just bunned up his pawg gf and she wants to buy a house. For duty reasons he has to live close to Brize-Norton and average house price around there seems to be about 400k! WTF is he supposed to do? The answer in his case is leave as soon as his return of service is up and go to Qatar Airways but that isn't a universally accessible solution. Young people are getting absolutely fucked.
    Friend of Mrs C's was married to someone similar stationed for a while at Brize Norton. This was, of course, around 1970, and I recall going there to visit them in the 'married quarters'. Have such things gone the way of Nurses Homes etc.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,290
    Leon said:

    In a fish restaurant, staring at the Aegean

    Flight home tonight. Sigh

    I believe I could do this happily for the rest of my life. Just drift around the Med, eating at different fish restaurants, staring at the sea

    Just that. Read a few books. Coffee. Stroll. More fish

    Plus an hour a day of scaring yourself trying AI products of course.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,290
    Andy_JS said:

    "Chancellor orders hunt for 'Red Throat' leaker of billionaire heiress wife's non-dom tax status as he moves family out of Downing St and friends say he might quit politics completely - while personal ratings plunge again

    Rishi Sunak moves family out from No 11 flat amid public scrutiny over tax affairs
    Friends of the Chancellor said he considered quitting the Cabinet over backlash
    Opponents called on the White House to investigate his previous US green card
    US rules say card holders should not be 'employed by a foreign Government"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10704465/Rishi-orders-hunt-Red-Throat-leaker-wifes-non-dom-tax-status.html

    Did I not say a week or two ago that he would not even be an MP within five years?

    Might be five months at this rate. LOL
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,839

    Dura_Ace said:

    Andy_JS said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    On topic, COVID and NHS waiting lists won’t matter one bit.

    “Will I and my children/grandchildren be better off under Labour?”

    That’s the key question. I have no idea how the politicians will play it and how the public will react.

    Grandchildren? That's a laugh when the client state voters put in place a government that repeatedly raise costs and taxes on the young and triple lock in their pensions. +2.5% for national insurance whilst promising to reduce income tax says it all.
    I’ve made this point many times, but one of the things that made me think Labour were doing better in 2017 than many expected was what a 60-something in a pub told my dad.

    He said “I’ve never voted Labour before, but I don’t want my granddaughters to be lumbered with huge debt from tuition fees.”

    Scrapping tuition fees is popular with older voters, even if it doesn’t benefit them directly.

    Of course, how you find that is another matter, but it doesn’t really matter. The old aren’t quite as selfish as PB makes them out to be.
    So one bloke in a pub might have voted Labour five years ago.

    Yet this generation of pensioners will be the richest ever and their grandchildren the first in many to be poorer than their parents. The pensioners think that is because they "worked hard all their lives" and that the young "are lazy and fickle". It is actually because of political choices the pensioners have made about where wealth is distributed in society.
    Mrs C and I often think about how we were the 'lucky generation'. Or at least those a bit younger than us were. We were children in wartime and during rationing, which at least meant that our young teeth weren't corrupted with sugary drinks and sweets. We had free higher education, although it was assumed by the authorities that one's parents would pay maintenance (which wasn't always the case) I think those born in the late 40's probably did as well as any; 20 or so in the late 60's.
    Certainly tougher for our grandchildren.
    The main reason it's tougher is because it's difficult to get on the property ladder, and the main reason for that is because the population has increased from 54 million to 68 million over the last 30 years or so. By contrast between roughly 1970 and 1990 it hardly increased at all.
    My cousin's son is a Fg Off in the RAF so he's probably making about 35k. The silly sod has just bunned up his pawg gf and she wants to buy a house. For duty reasons he has to live close to Brize-Norton and average house price around there seems to be about 400k! WTF is he supposed to do? The answer in his case is leave as soon as his return of service is up and go to Qatar Airways but that isn't a universally accessible solution. Young people are getting absolutely fucked.
    Did there used to be housing on the base...?
    There still is but his gf won't live somewhere that is reminiscent of Stan and Hilda Ogden's house without the muriel.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492

    Rumours that a Russian column has been destroyed on the way to Izyum. One wonders how keen they actually are to get to the Donbass.

    Where did you hear/see that?

    Fantastic if accurate, but how did the Ukrainians do it and how much of it was destroyed?

    a) Artillery I suspect it was too far behind the lines for artolatry.

    b) Drones, I don't think Ukraine has enough armed caring drones in use at the moment, but maybe

    c) Ground to Ground Missiles, I thought that Ukraine only had a few of these left,

    d) airplanes, I 'm parity confidant that Ukraine only had a handful of working plains left.

    e) it could have been an ambush buy Ukrainians infiltrates with NLAW or similar?

    Russian convoys getting destroyed is great so would love more inflation,

    my guess is b or e, but well done to whichever Ukrainians where involved.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,738

    Read this interview with Karaganov (reliable bellwether of 🇷🇺ruling elite majority consensus).

    If afterwards you still harbor any illusions about sustainable negotiated settlement with Putin's Kremlin on European security order read it again. And again.


    https://twitter.com/thorstenbenner/status/1513039187527806977

    That interview is both worrying and hilarious in equal measure. Are the Russian leadership really that deluded?

    It's interesting how such a massive 'intellect' ignores his country's repeated actions against Ukraine and the west.

    This quote was also good: "First, Russians have a core gene of sovereignty." Yet, by his own words, other eastern European countries cannot have sovereignty; they need to be ruled by Russia, directly or indirectly.

    He calls NATO a cancer. The real cancer is people like him and his chums in Putin's regime. The cancer needs removing. Preferably ending in trial at the Hague.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,651
    I disagree very slightly on the point of no oneupmanship between european nations. If it's in the sense of competing with one another to offer more, egging each other on to not let up, it's useful. But not sniping at one another.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,691
    Leon said:

    Come on guys, don’t be feeble

    FORCED CHOICE

    Melenchon v Le Pen

    Which do you choose? Just abstaining or spoiling your ballot is leaving this invidious choice to others, which is somewhat lame

    I’d vote for neither.

    But then I’m not French. I go easy on the snails and frog legs.

    You are asking us to choose with our UK understanding of things something we don’t understand? A different history producing different camps. Different borders and history with Germany? A more Nationalistic mindset than UK? Easier for African economic immigrants to get into France the UK? Why should they think and vote like us?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,237
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Rumours that a Russian column has been destroyed on the way to Izyum. One wonders how keen they actually are to get to the Donbass.

    There's a hell of a lot of top end Ruskie-killing kit moving east from Kyiv....
    Seems we are sending anti ship missiles which I assume are to defend Odessa

    This is de facto arming of Ukraine by the UK and I do support it and hope it is expanded further by NATO as a whole
    Still major questions about Mr Johnson's promise of those missiles. The UK doesn't have any in service that can be launched from the shore as they are, because you need the radar and electronics to point the missiles in the right direction. The Navy has just stopped using one type on its ships (which, NB, have the radar on them). It's possible that the missiles can be added to a similar type the Danes use which is apparently alreadu set up for land use, but otherwise, it's not at all clear whether those missiles are available at all or if some have to be built.
    There are questions, but as far as I'm aware we've been fairly honest about our deliveries to Ukraine; delivering what we said we would. Unlike, say, Germany.

    If we say we're going to deliver the capability, I'd be willing to assume we'd do so. We'll learn the answers to those questions soon enough...
    Oh yes! I did wince when I saw the PM on his own with Mr Z. I did wonder what promises he was making without his handlers ...
    Jack Higgins memorial post.

    BJ had to be persuaded not to cosplay this for his Kyiv away day. It was only when it was pointed out this was in fact Fallschirmjäger Oberst Kurt Steiner that he desisted.


  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,810
    Dura_Ace said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Andy_JS said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    On topic, COVID and NHS waiting lists won’t matter one bit.

    “Will I and my children/grandchildren be better off under Labour?”

    That’s the key question. I have no idea how the politicians will play it and how the public will react.

    Grandchildren? That's a laugh when the client state voters put in place a government that repeatedly raise costs and taxes on the young and triple lock in their pensions. +2.5% for national insurance whilst promising to reduce income tax says it all.
    I’ve made this point many times, but one of the things that made me think Labour were doing better in 2017 than many expected was what a 60-something in a pub told my dad.

    He said “I’ve never voted Labour before, but I don’t want my granddaughters to be lumbered with huge debt from tuition fees.”

    Scrapping tuition fees is popular with older voters, even if it doesn’t benefit them directly.

    Of course, how you find that is another matter, but it doesn’t really matter. The old aren’t quite as selfish as PB makes them out to be.
    So one bloke in a pub might have voted Labour five years ago.

    Yet this generation of pensioners will be the richest ever and their grandchildren the first in many to be poorer than their parents. The pensioners think that is because they "worked hard all their lives" and that the young "are lazy and fickle". It is actually because of political choices the pensioners have made about where wealth is distributed in society.
    Mrs C and I often think about how we were the 'lucky generation'. Or at least those a bit younger than us were. We were children in wartime and during rationing, which at least meant that our young teeth weren't corrupted with sugary drinks and sweets. We had free higher education, although it was assumed by the authorities that one's parents would pay maintenance (which wasn't always the case) I think those born in the late 40's probably did as well as any; 20 or so in the late 60's.
    Certainly tougher for our grandchildren.
    The main reason it's tougher is because it's difficult to get on the property ladder, and the main reason for that is because the population has increased from 54 million to 68 million over the last 30 years or so. By contrast between roughly 1970 and 1990 it hardly increased at all.
    My cousin's son is a Fg Off in the RAF so he's probably making about 35k. The silly sod has just bunned up his pawg gf and she wants to buy a house. For duty reasons he has to live close to Brize-Norton and average house price around there seems to be about 400k! WTF is he supposed to do? The answer in his case is leave as soon as his return of service is up and go to Qatar Airways but that isn't a universally accessible solution. Young people are getting absolutely fucked.
    Did there used to be housing on the base...?
    There still is but his gf won't live somewhere that is reminiscent of Stan and Hilda Ogden's house without the muriel.
    Don't recall it as like that, TBH. Anyway, he soon got posted and she, plus child, was whisked off to Canada.
This discussion has been closed.