Agree with TSE. I'm one of the majority who believe restrictions were lifted too soon. In fact I think we've gone crackers on this. But then, we didn't bring in restrictions fast enough either. The NHS is on its knees right now and so are other industries. As a friend of mine comments, 'the country has gone to the dogs.' Not a reference to Big Dog.
And now of course without free LFT's we've no knowledge of the real figures, which just perpetuates the fear. Johnson is an f-ing idiot.
Speaking of which, he must be cross not to command the front pages. I'm surprised. Only The Observer and Express lead with his photo op trip to Ukraine.
Millions of views on social media already. Quite a few in Russia I bet. Must stick in your throat that.
Good morning
Sky report this morning should make us proud for once of Boris's visit to Ukraine and our role in their defence
I understand why some have such a viserreal dislike of Boris, but for today anyway I believe he has been a credit to our country
But you are bringing party politics into this argument by eulogising Johnson.
Hats off to BigDog for going to Kyiv (although he is not the first- your hated nemesis UVDL was there the day before) and showing British solidarity with the Ukrainian people. As the Ukrainian Government tweeted, he was very "brave", but in my book, no braver than a hatful of other European leaders who have made the same journey. If he had been holed up in the bunker with Zelenskiy marshaling Ukrainian troops during the siege of Kyiv, now that would be brave.
Cynicism for Johnson's motives, even when he does the right thing is not being anti-British. It is a healthy skepticism for a man who has self-indulgent form in pretty much anything he does.
I do not hate UVDL and this is not a beauty competition
The significance of yesterday's visit, as has been commented on, is that Boris is the first G7 leader to visit and the first of the big four, of UK - US - France and Germany
Anyway this is politics and of course some cannot give credit where it s due
This is not a beauty competition but phwoar look at the tits on Miss UK compared to the competition
On balance, restrictions were probably lifted too early. But, from a very selfish perspective, I am glad they were!
If that was the case, then UK countries which maintained them longer should have done better at controlling COVID. That Sturgeon has stopped comparing Scotland's performance with England tells you all you need to know.
More basic reason for that. It's impossible to make meaningful comparisons [edit], now testing has been de facto abandoned in England first.
The ONS survey, which continues, always was more reliable than testing - and that was what Sturgeon based her "doing better than England" comparisons upon.
And how can they do it if the UKG has been choking off the supply of free tests? That's going to distort the stats for anything lower than hospitalizations. Edit: We've still got free tests in Scotland, for now.
Ons is not linked to the free tests, it’s conducted separately.
Agree with TSE. I'm one of the majority who believe restrictions were lifted too soon. In fact I think we've gone crackers on this. But then, we didn't bring in restrictions fast enough either. The NHS is on its knees right now and so are other industries. As a friend of mine comments, 'the country has gone to the dogs.' Not a reference to Big Dog.
And now of course without free LFT's we've no knowledge of the real figures, which just perpetuates the fear. Johnson is an f-ing idiot.
Speaking of which, he must be cross not to command the front pages. I'm surprised. Only The Observer and Express lead with his photo op trip to Ukraine.
Millions of views on social media already. Quite a few in Russia I bet. Must stick in your throat that.
Good morning
Sky report this morning should make us proud for once of Boris's visit to Ukraine and our role in their defence
I understand why some have such a viserreal dislike of Boris, but for today anyway I believe he has been a credit to our country
But you are bringing party politics into this argument by eulogising Johnson.
Hats off to BigDog for going to Kyiv (although he is not the first- your hated nemesis UVDL was there the day before) and showing British solidarity with the Ukrainian people. As the Ukrainian Government tweeted, he was very "brave", but in my book, no braver than a hatful of other European leaders who have made the same journey. If he had been holed up in the bunker with Zelenskiy marshaling Ukrainian troops during the siege of Kyiv, now that would be brave.
Cynicism for Johnson's motives, even when he does the right thing is not being anti-British. It is a healthy skepticism for a man who has self-indulgent form in pretty much anything he does.
Boris was brave in training Ukrainian troops and supplying Ukraine with some very effective kit. At the same time, Germany and France and Italy were ensuring Moscow could fill its coffers with hydrocarbon purchasers - money that allowed Russia to fund artillery and thermobaric weapons to exterminate the Ukrainian "untermenschen".
So its easy to see where the "bravery" needle points in this conflict.
As others have said, I don’t think I know anyone who wants the restrictions back. Where are these people? I mean, if you think restrictions were lifted too soon, you would presumably still be wearing a mask and I rarely see anyone do that in shops and the like. London/Southern/Scotland/Wales thing?
I don' want to upset dear Roger, but the following tweet is interesting:
"NEW: Russia is sending an 8-mi long convoy of 100s of vehicles, including armored vehicles and artillery southbound through the Ukrainian town of Velykyi Burluk.
The convoy is moving about 60 mi east of Ukraine’s 2nd-largest city of Kharkiv, as 🇷🇺 focuses on Donbas."
What has that got to do with Roger? I know, he is a very, very bad man for voting Labour, despising Johnson and having a home in France, but I can't make the link to Putin.
Insane that anyone should be annoyed by Johnson visiting Kyiv. Demonstrating British solidarity with the Ukraine is hugely important and going there is a big part of that. Same with other visits from other European and EU leaders. It is absolutely the right thing to do. This surely goes beyond partisan politics.
For some nothing goes beyond party politics.
Including you and the other posters who think that while thousands are dying in Ukraine the only really important question in Kyiv is whether fatso's bum looks big in this photo opportunity. Atrocities = yawn.
Ouch - I'm sorry, sad and somewhat amused by your pain.
Yes, children being raped and murdered is always good for a sardonic chortle.
I don't dispute your right in principle to comment on UK politics from abroad, but when you descend to petty point scoring about electoral outcomes which have no effect on you personally - about 85% of your output - I'm afraid I think Yeah, right: eunuch in a brothel. And on here because your Spanish is not up to any kind of discussion.
Just last week the Government felt Conservative ex-patriots like Felix should be entitled to vote Conservative in our General Elections, even if they haven't troubled our shores for fifteen plus years.
So Felix is perfectly entitled to his opinion on PB from his bolt hole in the sun on how we are governed back in Blighty. His vote is as important to Boris Johnson as yours or mine.
Agree with TSE. I'm one of the majority who believe restrictions were lifted too soon. In fact I think we've gone crackers on this. But then, we didn't bring in restrictions fast enough either. The NHS is on its knees right now and so are other industries. As a friend of mine comments, 'the country has gone to the dogs.' Not a reference to Big Dog.
And now of course without free LFT's we've no knowledge of the real figures, which just perpetuates the fear. Johnson is an f-ing idiot.
Speaking of which, he must be cross not to command the front pages. I'm surprised. Only The Observer and Express lead with his photo op trip to Ukraine.
Millions of views on social media already. Quite a few in Russia I bet. Must stick in your throat that.
Good morning
Sky report this morning should make us proud for once of Boris's visit to Ukraine and our role in their defence
I understand why some have such a viserreal dislike of Boris, but for today anyway I believe he has been a credit to our country
But you are bringing party politics into this argument by eulogising Johnson.
Hats off to BigDog for going to Kyiv (although he is not the first- your hated nemesis UVDL was there the day before) and showing British solidarity with the Ukrainian people. As the Ukrainian Government tweeted, he was very "brave", but in my book, no braver than a hatful of other European leaders who have made the same journey. If he had been holed up in the bunker with Zelenskiy marshaling Ukrainian troops during the siege of Kyiv, now that would be brave.
Cynicism for Johnson's motives, even when he does the right thing is not being anti-British. It is a healthy skepticism for a man who has self-indulgent form in pretty much anything he does.
Boris was brave in training Ukrainian troops and supplying Ukraine with some very effective kit. At the same time, Germany and France and Italy were ensuring Moscow could fill its coffers with hydrocarbon purchasers - money that allowed Russia to fund artillery and thermobaric weapons to exterminate the Ukrainian "untermenschen".
So its easy to see where the "bravery" needle points in this conflict.
I’ve stocked up with beer and am on my way again (JJ, were any of your 120 mile weeks hydrated solely with beer?).
I’m headed for the French border today. Whether I cross it will depend on the time and my tiredness when I get to Portbou (I haven’t booked tonight’s room yet). I could have taken a short route along the coast, but that would have meant walking on a busy road’s hard shoulder, so I’ve for the five mile longer “scenic” route..
Agree with TSE. I'm one of the majority who believe restrictions were lifted too soon. In fact I think we've gone crackers on this. But then, we didn't bring in restrictions fast enough either. The NHS is on its knees right now and so are other industries. As a friend of mine comments, 'the country has gone to the dogs.' Not a reference to Big Dog.
And now of course without free LFT's we've no knowledge of the real figures, which just perpetuates the fear. Johnson is an f-ing idiot.
Speaking of which, he must be cross not to command the front pages. I'm surprised. Only The Observer and Express lead with his photo op trip to Ukraine.
When everyone knows that Johnson's life is just one giant ego trip even newspapers as crass as the Sun and Mail baulk at being sucked into it
What on earth are you going to do when he wins GE24
Given on his own admission he broke his own laws and lied to Parliament, I am personally going to be horrified if he does that.
I knew he'd be bad, but the debasement of public life he's led to is far beyond anything I thought possible.
It seems that the conservative poll rating over the last 6 weeks including post the budget has remained remarkably around 34-35%
It would be understandable if the conservatives had plummeted to the low 30s but I suspect the combination of a general acceptance that covid and war in Ukraine are at the heart of the cost of living crisis and Starmer's lack of real inspiration
Rishi's self inflicted political suicide has been astonishing and I expect he will shortly be gone, maybe out of UK politics returning to the US
Fantasy maybe but what odds of Rishi going into US politics where wealth is not a negative factor
Wealth is not a negative factor here either. Sleaze is the problem. We don't like to be governed by sleazeballs. The US is more tolerant
You live in France, Roger. Plenty of sleaze and sleazy politicians all around.
I don' want to upset dear Roger, but the following tweet is interesting:
"NEW: Russia is sending an 8-mi long convoy of 100s of vehicles, including armored vehicles and artillery southbound through the Ukrainian town of Velykyi Burluk.
The convoy is moving about 60 mi east of Ukraine’s 2nd-largest city of Kharkiv, as 🇷🇺 focuses on Donbas."
What has that got to do with Roger? I know, he is a very, very bad man for voting Labour, despising Johnson and having a home in France, but I can't make the link to Putin.
Insane that anyone should be annoyed by Johnson visiting Kyiv. Demonstrating British solidarity with the Ukraine is hugely important and going there is a big part of that. Same with other visits from other European and EU leaders. It is absolutely the right thing to do. This surely goes beyond partisan politics.
For some nothing goes beyond party politics.
Including you and the other posters who think that while thousands are dying in Ukraine the only really important question in Kyiv is whether fatso's bum looks big in this photo opportunity. Atrocities = yawn.
Ouch - I'm sorry, sad and somewhat amused by your pain.
Yes, children being raped and murdered is always good for a sardonic chortle.
I don't dispute your right in principle to comment on UK politics from abroad, but when you descend to petty point scoring about electoral outcomes which have no effect on you personally - about 85% of your output - I'm afraid I think Yeah, right: eunuch in a brothel. And on here because your Spanish is not up to any kind of discussion.
Just last week the Government felt Conservative ex-patriots like Felix should be entitled to vote Conservative in our General Elections, even if they haven't troubled our shores for fifteen plus years.
So Felix is perfectly entitled to his opinion on PB from his bolt hole in the sun on how we are governed back in Blighty. His vote is as important to Boris Johnson as yours or mine.
Quite so. Foreign residents who don't have to live with the consequences of their kiss arse Brexitism are quite electorally important.
As others have said, I don’t think I know anyone who wants the restrictions back. Where are these people? I mean, if you think restrictions were lifted too soon, you would presumably still be wearing a mask and I rarely see anyone do that in shops and the like. London/Southern/Scotland/Wales thing?
Thing is there are people still wearing masks, and there are others on day 782 without leaving the house. Some will be extremely vulnerable, with compromised immune systems etc. It’s shit for them at the moment as Covid is everywhere. Moving forward there are better things we can do that are not restrictions. The use of hepa filtered air purifiers looks to be very effective. My wife has several to help with allergies and they are reasonably cheap (a few hundred pounds say). Better to use that in a classroom than masks.
On balance, restrictions were probably lifted too early. But, from a very selfish perspective, I am glad they were!
If that was the case, then UK countries which maintained them longer should have done better at controlling COVID. That Sturgeon has stopped comparing Scotland's performance with England tells you all you need to know.
More basic reason for that. It's impossible to make meaningful comparisons [edit], now testing has been de facto abandoned in England first.
The ONS survey, which continues, always was more reliable than testing - and that was what Sturgeon based her "doing better than England" comparisons upon.
And how can they do it if the UKG has been choking off the supply of free tests? That's going to distort the stats for anything lower than hospitalizations. Edit: We've still got free tests in Scotland, for now.
Its a survey.
The ONS sends out the tests.
It's got nothing to do with the supply of free/paid for LFTs.
The UK was doing massively more free LFT testing than any other G7 country and had to be ended at some stage.
Of course "free" = "tax payer paid for".
To the point of substance - why hasn't Scotland done better than England, despite maintaining restrictions longer?
Agree with TSE. I'm one of the majority who believe restrictions were lifted too soon. In fact I think we've gone crackers on this. But then, we didn't bring in restrictions fast enough either. The NHS is on its knees right now and so are other industries. As a friend of mine comments, 'the country has gone to the dogs.' Not a reference to Big Dog.
And now of course without free LFT's we've no knowledge of the real figures, which just perpetuates the fear. Johnson is an f-ing idiot.
Speaking of which, he must be cross not to command the front pages. I'm surprised. Only The Observer and Express lead with his photo op trip to Ukraine.
Millions of views on social media already. Quite a few in Russia I bet. Must stick in your throat that.
Good morning
Sky report this morning should make us proud for once of Boris's visit to Ukraine and our role in their defence
I understand why some have such a viserreal dislike of Boris, but for today anyway I believe he has been a credit to our country
But you are bringing party politics into this argument by eulogising Johnson.
Hats off to BigDog for going to Kyiv (although he is not the first- your hated nemesis UVDL was there the day before) and showing British solidarity with the Ukrainian people. As the Ukrainian Government tweeted, he was very "brave", but in my book, no braver than a hatful of other European leaders who have made the same journey. If he had been holed up in the bunker with Zelenskiy marshaling Ukrainian troops during the siege of Kyiv, now that would be brave.
Cynicism for Johnson's motives, even when he does the right thing is not being anti-British. It is a healthy skepticism for a man who has self-indulgent form in pretty much anything he does.
I do not hate UVDL and this is not a beauty competition
The significance of yesterday's visit, as has been commented on, is that Boris is the first G7 leader to visit and the first of the big four, of UK - US - France and Germany
Anyway this is politics and of course some cannot give credit where it s due
And Slovakia was the first country beginning with S to send it's leader. Get a grip!
"We assess that the Russian military will struggle to amass a large and combat-capable force of mechanized units to operate in Donbas within the next few months. Russia will likely continue to throw badly damaged and partially reconstituted units piecemeal into offensive operations that make limited gains at great cost.[1] The Russians likely will make gains nevertheless and may either trap or wear down Ukrainian forces enough to secure much of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts, but it is at least equally likely that these Russian offensives will culminate before reaching their objectives, as similar Russian operations have done."
Reading that entire report, it seems that Russia is very much on the back foot.
The weakness of their assessment is that this is a "short war". Why? Russia can keep grinding away until more support comes if they are so minded. As that report and common sense indicates attacking is much harder than defending. Ukraine has done brilliantly defending but offense is harder. I fear that the Russians will consolidate (after Mariapol falls) and be very hard to shift.
Our priority is to make the long war option less viable. That means inflicting as much pain as we can on the Russian economy by sanctions and on the oligarchs, especially those close to Putin. That is hard for us too, particularly Europe, who built such a dependency on Russian gas.
We need to keep the flow of weapons and training going so that Ukraine can sustain a long war.
And we have to hope and pray that Zelinskyy lives. Not since at least Churchill has anyone so epitomised the will and very existence of a nation.
Yanis Varoufakis laying out his position in interview, having been (in his eyes) unfairly labelled a Putin apologising westplainer. He doesn't come across as crazy, and it is not at the Stop the War level.
Reading it I think the key problem he has, and many have, is a focus on the most important goal being an 'immediate cessation of fire and withdrawal of Russia troops'.
Because the former to me seems unlikely to happen with the latter. Giving Putin a win to immediately get cessation of fire would surely mean accepting him continuing to occupy areas, which means the latter goal is impossible, or at least incompatible, with the former.
Russia's continuing occupation is inevitable at this point. Let's at least tell ourselves the truth. They aren't going to be rolled back to the 2014 or even January 2022 borders.
Giving VVP something he can market as a win (probably the Donetsk/Luhansk oblasts and a land bridge to Crimea) is the only way this ends short of the extremely unlikely Kremlin palace coup. The alternative is the total and probably permanent destruction of Ukraine.
If that is so, it still makes the purported aim of the likes of Varoufakis impossible, since his plan involves Russuan withdrawal. You've used the same belief as him about inability to defeat Russia and need to be rational about that, yet reached an entirely different conclusion.
Yours is upsetting, but at least more realistic than his, even as he claims his to be realistic.
Agree with TSE. I'm one of the majority who believe restrictions were lifted too soon. In fact I think we've gone crackers on this. But then, we didn't bring in restrictions fast enough either. The NHS is on its knees right now and so are other industries. As a friend of mine comments, 'the country has gone to the dogs.' Not a reference to Big Dog.
And now of course without free LFT's we've no knowledge of the real figures, which just perpetuates the fear. Johnson is an f-ing idiot.
Speaking of which, he must be cross not to command the front pages. I'm surprised. Only The Observer and Express lead with his photo op trip to Ukraine.
Millions of views on social media already. Quite a few in Russia I bet. Must stick in your throat that.
Good morning
Sky report this morning should make us proud for once of Boris's visit to Ukraine and our role in their defence
I understand why some have such a viserreal dislike of Boris, but for today anyway I believe he has been a credit to our country
But you are bringing party politics into this argument by eulogising Johnson.
Hats off to BigDog for going to Kyiv (although he is not the first- your hated nemesis UVDL was there the day before) and showing British solidarity with the Ukrainian people. As the Ukrainian Government tweeted, he was very "brave", but in my book, no braver than a hatful of other European leaders who have made the same journey. If he had been holed up in the bunker with Zelenskiy marshaling Ukrainian troops during the siege of Kyiv, now that would be brave.
Cynicism for Johnson's motives, even when he does the right thing is not being anti-British. It is a healthy skepticism for a man who has self-indulgent form in pretty much anything he does.
To be fair to BJ (and assuming the Ukrainian Government are telling the truth), it actually was quite risky - if Russian hit squads are still operating in the city, then walking around a city with wide boulevards and plenty of shooting spots is not without risk. I’m sure the hit squads would have had no problem taking out BJ a as long as they got Zelensky (with Putin claiming afterwards they were Ukrainian false flag operatives).
Agree with TSE. I'm one of the majority who believe restrictions were lifted too soon. In fact I think we've gone crackers on this. But then, we didn't bring in restrictions fast enough either. The NHS is on its knees right now and so are other industries. As a friend of mine comments, 'the country has gone to the dogs.' Not a reference to Big Dog.
And now of course without free LFT's we've no knowledge of the real figures, which just perpetuates the fear. Johnson is an f-ing idiot.
Speaking of which, he must be cross not to command the front pages. I'm surprised. Only The Observer and Express lead with his photo op trip to Ukraine.
Millions of views on social media already. Quite a few in Russia I bet. Must stick in your throat that.
Good morning
Sky report this morning should make us proud for once of Boris's visit to Ukraine and our role in their defence
I understand why some have such a viserreal dislike of Boris, but for today anyway I believe he has been a credit to our country
But you are bringing party politics into this argument by eulogising Johnson.
Hats off to BigDog for going to Kyiv (although he is not the first- your hated nemesis UVDL was there the day before) and showing British solidarity with the Ukrainian people. As the Ukrainian Government tweeted, he was very "brave", but in my book, no braver than a hatful of other European leaders who have made the same journey. If he had been holed up in the bunker with Zelenskiy marshaling Ukrainian troops during the siege of Kyiv, now that would be brave.
Cynicism for Johnson's motives, even when he does the right thing is not being anti-British. It is a healthy skepticism for a man who has self-indulgent form in pretty much anything he does.
Boris was brave in training Ukrainian troops and supplying Ukraine with some very effective kit.
The policy precedes Johnson, with training starting in 2015, and continued under his predecessors. He does deserve credit for pithily summarising what needs to happen "Putin must fail" unlike some (most) of his more mealy mouthed "on the one hand, on the other hand" European peers.
Agree with TSE. I'm one of the majority who believe restrictions were lifted too soon. In fact I think we've gone crackers on this. But then, we didn't bring in restrictions fast enough either. The NHS is on its knees right now and so are other industries. As a friend of mine comments, 'the country has gone to the dogs.' Not a reference to Big Dog.
And now of course without free LFT's we've no knowledge of the real figures, which just perpetuates the fear. Johnson is an f-ing idiot.
Speaking of which, he must be cross not to command the front pages. I'm surprised. Only The Observer and Express lead with his photo op trip to Ukraine.
Millions of views on social media already. Quite a few in Russia I bet. Must stick in your throat that.
Good morning
Sky report this morning should make us proud for once of Boris's visit to Ukraine and our role in their defence
I understand why some have such a viserreal dislike of Boris, but for today anyway I believe he has been a credit to our country
But you are bringing party politics into this argument by eulogising Johnson.
Hats off to BigDog for going to Kyiv (although he is not the first- your hated nemesis UVDL was there the day before) and showing British solidarity with the Ukrainian people. As the Ukrainian Government tweeted, he was very "brave", but in my book, no braver than a hatful of other European leaders who have made the same journey. If he had been holed up in the bunker with Zelenskiy marshaling Ukrainian troops during the siege of Kyiv, now that would be brave.
Cynicism for Johnson's motives, even when he does the right thing is not being anti-British. It is a healthy skepticism for a man who has self-indulgent form in pretty much anything he does.
I do not hate UVDL and this is not a beauty competition
The significance of yesterday's visit, as has been commented on, is that Boris is the first G7 leader to visit and the first of the big four, of UK - US - France and Germany
Anyway this is politics and of course some cannot give credit where it s due
There you go again "this is not a beauty contest"... "Boris is the first G7 leader to visit and the first of the big four, of UK-YS-France and Germany".
Like I said, even when he does the right thing those of us not of the faith question why? Is it because we are cynical wretches or because Johnson has "World King, World beating" form stretching back to his childhood.
Agree with TSE. I'm one of the majority who believe restrictions were lifted too soon. In fact I think we've gone crackers on this. But then, we didn't bring in restrictions fast enough either. The NHS is on its knees right now and so are other industries. As a friend of mine comments, 'the country has gone to the dogs.' Not a reference to Big Dog.
And now of course without free LFT's we've no knowledge of the real figures, which just perpetuates the fear. Johnson is an f-ing idiot.
Speaking of which, he must be cross not to command the front pages. I'm surprised. Only The Observer and Express lead with his photo op trip to Ukraine.
Millions of views on social media already. Quite a few in Russia I bet. Must stick in your throat that.
Good morning
Sky report this morning should make us proud for once of Boris's visit to Ukraine and our role in their defence
I understand why some have such a viserreal dislike of Boris, but for today anyway I believe he has been a credit to our country
But you are bringing party politics into this argument by eulogising Johnson.
Hats off to BigDog for going to Kyiv (although he is not the first- your hated nemesis UVDL was there the day before) and showing British solidarity with the Ukrainian people. As the Ukrainian Government tweeted, he was very "brave", but in my book, no braver than a hatful of other European leaders who have made the same journey. If he had been holed up in the bunker with Zelenskiy marshaling Ukrainian troops during the siege of Kyiv, now that would be brave.
Cynicism for Johnson's motives, even when he does the right thing is not being anti-British. It is a healthy skepticism for a man who has self-indulgent form in pretty much anything he does.
I do not hate UVDL and this is not a beauty competition
The significance of yesterday's visit, as has been commented on, is that Boris is the first G7 leader to visit and the first of the big four, of UK - US - France and Germany
Anyway this is politics and of course some cannot give credit where it s due
There you go again "this is not a beauty contest"... "Boris is the first G7 leader to visit and the first of the big four, of UK-YS-France and Germany".
Like I said, even when he does the right thing those of us not of the faith question why? Is it because we are cynical wretches or because Johnson has "World King, World beating" form stretching back to his childhood.
Agree with TSE. I'm one of the majority who believe restrictions were lifted too soon. In fact I think we've gone crackers on this. But then, we didn't bring in restrictions fast enough either. The NHS is on its knees right now and so are other industries. As a friend of mine comments, 'the country has gone to the dogs.' Not a reference to Big Dog.
And now of course without free LFT's we've no knowledge of the real figures, which just perpetuates the fear. Johnson is an f-ing idiot.
Speaking of which, he must be cross not to command the front pages. I'm surprised. Only The Observer and Express lead with his photo op trip to Ukraine.
Millions of views on social media already. Quite a few in Russia I bet. Must stick in your throat that.
Good morning
Sky report this morning should make us proud for once of Boris's visit to Ukraine and our role in their defence
I understand why some have such a viserreal dislike of Boris, but for today anyway I believe he has been a credit to our country
But you are bringing party politics into this argument by eulogising Johnson.
Hats off to BigDog for going to Kyiv (although he is not the first- your hated nemesis UVDL was there the day before) and showing British solidarity with the Ukrainian people. As the Ukrainian Government tweeted, he was very "brave", but in my book, no braver than a hatful of other European leaders who have made the same journey. If he had been holed up in the bunker with Zelenskiy marshaling Ukrainian troops during the siege of Kyiv, now that would be brave.
Cynicism for Johnson's motives, even when he does the right thing is not being anti-British. It is a healthy skepticism for a man who has self-indulgent form in pretty much anything he does.
I do not hate UVDL and this is not a beauty competition
The significance of yesterday's visit, as has been commented on, is that Boris is the first G7 leader to visit and the first of the big four, of UK - US - France and Germany
Anyway this is politics and of course some cannot give credit where it s due
And Slovakia was the first country beginning with S to send it's leader. Get a grip!
Vodymyr Zelensky would not agree with you and he is not on your side
"We assess that the Russian military will struggle to amass a large and combat-capable force of mechanized units to operate in Donbas within the next few months. Russia will likely continue to throw badly damaged and partially reconstituted units piecemeal into offensive operations that make limited gains at great cost.[1] The Russians likely will make gains nevertheless and may either trap or wear down Ukrainian forces enough to secure much of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts, but it is at least equally likely that these Russian offensives will culminate before reaching their objectives, as similar Russian operations have done."
Reading that entire report, it seems that Russia is very much on the back foot.
The weakness of their assessment is that this is a "short war". Why? Russia can keep grinding away until more support comes if they are so minded. As that report and common sense indicates attacking is much harder than defending. Ukraine has done brilliantly defending but offense is harder. I fear that the Russians will consolidate (after Mariapol falls) and be very hard to shift.
Our priority is to make the long war option less viable. That means inflicting as much pain as we can on the Russian economy by sanctions and on the oligarchs, especially those close to Putin. That is hard for us too, particularly Europe, who built such a dependency on Russian gas.
We need to keep the flow of weapons and training going so that Ukraine can sustain a long war.
And we have to hope and pray that Zelinskyy lives. Not since at least Churchill has anyone so epitomised the will and very existence of a nation.
Russia cannot sustain a long war. Its cannot replace its equipment losses, it’s armament manufacturing capability is shot to pieces with sanctions, troops are actively refusing to be sent to Ukraine, it does not have a limitless supply of troops and the weapons it holds in reserve are probably (at best) 20% usable.
Agree with TSE. I'm one of the majority who believe restrictions were lifted too soon. In fact I think we've gone crackers on this. But then, we didn't bring in restrictions fast enough either. The NHS is on its knees right now and so are other industries. As a friend of mine comments, 'the country has gone to the dogs.' Not a reference to Big Dog.
And now of course without free LFT's we've no knowledge of the real figures, which just perpetuates the fear. Johnson is an f-ing idiot.
Speaking of which, he must be cross not to command the front pages. I'm surprised. Only The Observer and Express lead with his photo op trip to Ukraine.
When everyone knows that Johnson's life is just one giant ego trip even newspapers as crass as the Sun and Mail baulk at being sucked into it
I hope Zelenskyy is aware of the traditional fate of friends of Johnson. Exploited, abandoned and then ignored is the usual trajectory.
Zelensky is the one getting cash and weapons out of Boris though. And will only interact with on the basis of war aims. So theres no dangers there.
"We assess that the Russian military will struggle to amass a large and combat-capable force of mechanized units to operate in Donbas within the next few months. Russia will likely continue to throw badly damaged and partially reconstituted units piecemeal into offensive operations that make limited gains at great cost.[1] The Russians likely will make gains nevertheless and may either trap or wear down Ukrainian forces enough to secure much of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts, but it is at least equally likely that these Russian offensives will culminate before reaching their objectives, as similar Russian operations have done."
I think StuartDickson is right about sense of general malaise being key. Hard to quantify, but vital.
My personal impression, which could be totally wrong, is that everyone is very tired and fed up after the last two years, which for some have been physically and emotionally gruelling, for others incredibly boring, for others stressful due to the many restrictions and for others still have involved an illness the physical effects of which are still being felt. Plus, we now have nervousness around jobs, incomes and outgoings which is never a pleasant feeling.
The result is that everybody is restive and short-tempered, which shows itself in a number of ways. Very bad driving is one I'm noticing a lot of on my commute to and from work and driving to and from Gloucestershire. Irritation with minor hiccups such as queueing spiralling out of control quickly.
It isn't great. Equally, that isn't altogether the government's fault, and it would be happening whoever was in power.
It is perfectly feasible that the Russian military may collapse, especially if they do not get foreign help.
It's possible but highly unlikely. The Russian military culture absolutely excels at pointlessly dying in large numbers until they grind out a grisly marginal win.
When did Russia/USSR last lose so many men in a war?
I’m sure they didn’t in Syria or Chechnya.. Afghanistan? I thought the numbers there were similar to Ukraine so far, but over years. And they lost there and some say it led to the fall of the USSR.
So do we go back 80 odd years to WW2. Which was beating the Nazis. I wouldn’t say they “pointlessly” died then.
Depends on how you define 'pointless.' Yes, they were winning a war against a uniquely evil regime. One which, remarkably, was even worse than their own.
However, very often they died because of the callousness and incompetence of their generals, who hurled enormous numbers of men at defended positions on the calculation that some at least would survive and get through. A little like Grant's calculation in 1864, but on a scale of millions. The German army could have been overwhelmed at far lower cost with a little more planning and care.
The irony is that the British WWI generals so beloved of Marxist historiography (and, oddly, Alan Clark) in the 1960s were actually largely a myth, but that myth could easily have been applied to the Soviet generals of World War Two with perfect accuracy.
Zhukov in particular could have been a model for Pratchett's analysis of Ronnie Rust's generalship: 'military doctrine states the key principle of any battle is there should be massive casualties. If they were on the other side, this was regarded as a valuable bonus.'
So arguably, many of their deaths were pointless.
Not that I discount the possibility there are never sound military reasons to go for a mass uncoordinated assault, but given they're often a finite result it's a surprise many generals dont try a little harder to preserve them.
I think StuartDickson is right about sense of general malaise being key. Hard to quantify, but vital.
I am not sure about that, Boris is very good at boosterism, which is a cure for malaise.
The cost of living squeeze, on the other hand, is an enormous threat to his government and I am not sure how he handles it. Basically, he needs the price of international commodities, especially fuel, to be falling by the election. Possible, but out of his control.
On the other side of the balance sheet his economic policies can let wages rip but this would consolidate and very likely increase inflation which is already a serious concern after the failures of the BoE to increase rates fast enough last year. Economically, we probably need a squeeze to press out our excess consumption and improve our balance of payments but this is usually fatal to governments.
I don' want to upset dear Roger, but the following tweet is interesting:
"NEW: Russia is sending an 8-mi long convoy of 100s of vehicles, including armored vehicles and artillery southbound through the Ukrainian town of Velykyi Burluk.
The convoy is moving about 60 mi east of Ukraine’s 2nd-largest city of Kharkiv, as 🇷🇺 focuses on Donbas."
What has that got to do with Roger? I know, he is a very, very bad man for voting Labour, despising Johnson and having a home in France, but I can't make the link to Putin.
Insane that anyone should be annoyed by Johnson visiting Kyiv. Demonstrating British solidarity with the Ukraine is hugely important and going there is a big part of that. Same with other visits from other European and EU leaders. It is absolutely the right thing to do. This surely goes beyond partisan politics.
For some nothing goes beyond party politics.
Including you and the other posters who think that while thousands are dying in Ukraine the only really important question in Kyiv is whether fatso's bum looks big in this photo opportunity. Atrocities = yawn.
Ouch - I'm sorry, sad and somewhat amused by your pain.
Yes, children being raped and murdered is always good for a sardonic chortle.
I don't dispute your right in principle to comment on UK politics from abroad, but when you descend to petty point scoring about electoral outcomes which have no effect on you personally - about 85% of your output - I'm afraid I think Yeah, right: eunuch in a brothel. And on here because your Spanish is not up to any kind of discussion.
Just last week the Government felt Conservative ex-patriots like Felix should be entitled to vote Conservative in our General Elections, even if they haven't troubled our shores for fifteen plus years.
So Felix is perfectly entitled to his opinion on PB from his bolt hole in the sun on how we are governed back in Blighty. His vote is as important to Boris Johnson as yours or mine.
Dont many countries allow ex Patriots to vote permanently? I seem to recall France may even draw up constituencies for them to be represented.
"We assess that the Russian military will struggle to amass a large and combat-capable force of mechanized units to operate in Donbas within the next few months. Russia will likely continue to throw badly damaged and partially reconstituted units piecemeal into offensive operations that make limited gains at great cost.[1] The Russians likely will make gains nevertheless and may either trap or wear down Ukrainian forces enough to secure much of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts, but it is at least equally likely that these Russian offensives will culminate before reaching their objectives, as similar Russian operations have done."
Reading that entire report, it seems that Russia is very much on the back foot.
The weakness of their assessment is that this is a "short war". Why? Russia can keep grinding away until more support comes if they are so minded. As that report and common sense indicates attacking is much harder than defending. Ukraine has done brilliantly defending but offense is harder. I fear that the Russians will consolidate (after Mariapol falls) and be very hard to shift.
Our priority is to make the long war option less viable. That means inflicting as much pain as we can on the Russian economy by sanctions and on the oligarchs, especially those close to Putin. That is hard for us too, particularly Europe, who built such a dependency on Russian gas.
We need to keep the flow of weapons and training going so that Ukraine can sustain a long war.
And we have to hope and pray that Zelinskyy lives. Not since at least Churchill has anyone so epitomised the will and very existence of a nation.
Russia cannot sustain a long war. Its cannot replace its equipment losses, it’s armament manufacturing capability is shot to pieces with sanctions, troops are actively refusing to be sent to Ukraine, it does not have a limitless supply of troops and the weapons it holds in reserve are probably (at best) 20% usable.
I do hope you're right.
However, I would caution that if studying Russian history has taught me anything it's that Russia and the Russian people are incredibly resilient and determined. They will frequently take unimaginable and to anyone else unsurvivable punishment and still somehow come back from it.
My personal fear is that having taken a humiliating pounding from the Ukrainians they will now decide to throw everything into the scale and launch a full on genocidal war with all weapons at their disposal.
But hopefully you're right and my forecast is as accurate as my forecasts usually are.
Agree with TSE. I'm one of the majority who believe restrictions were lifted too soon. In fact I think we've gone crackers on this. But then, we didn't bring in restrictions fast enough either. The NHS is on its knees right now and so are other industries. As a friend of mine comments, 'the country has gone to the dogs.' Not a reference to Big Dog.
And now of course without free LFT's we've no knowledge of the real figures, which just perpetuates the fear. Johnson is an f-ing idiot.
Speaking of which, he must be cross not to command the front pages. I'm surprised. Only The Observer and Express lead with his photo op trip to Ukraine.
When everyone knows that Johnson's life is just one giant ego trip even newspapers as crass as the Sun and Mail baulk at being sucked into it
What on earth are you going to do when he wins GE24
It is perfectly feasible that the Russian military may collapse, especially if they do not get foreign help.
It's possible but highly unlikely. The Russian military culture absolutely excels at pointlessly dying in large numbers until they grind out a grisly marginal win.
I don't think they have the numbers any more. This isnt 1812 or 1941.
The thing is, they are fighting even less cleverly than in 1812 or WWII.
I’ve stocked up with beer and am on my way again (JJ, were any of your 120 mile weeks hydrated solely with beer?).
I’m headed for the French border today. Whether I cross it will depend on the time and my tiredness when I get to Portbou (I haven’t booked tonight’s room yet). I could have taken a short route along the coast, but that would have meant walking on a busy road’s hard shoulder, so I’ve for the five mile longer “scenic” route..
It looks like I’ve got some more climbing to do!
Not a bad view for my first beer break of the day.. Cheers!
I don' want to upset dear Roger, but the following tweet is interesting:
"NEW: Russia is sending an 8-mi long convoy of 100s of vehicles, including armored vehicles and artillery southbound through the Ukrainian town of Velykyi Burluk.
The convoy is moving about 60 mi east of Ukraine’s 2nd-largest city of Kharkiv, as 🇷🇺 focuses on Donbas."
What has that got to do with Roger? I know, he is a very, very bad man for voting Labour, despising Johnson and having a home in France, but I can't make the link to Putin.
Insane that anyone should be annoyed by Johnson visiting Kyiv. Demonstrating British solidarity with the Ukraine is hugely important and going there is a big part of that. Same with other visits from other European and EU leaders. It is absolutely the right thing to do. This surely goes beyond partisan politics.
For some nothing goes beyond party politics.
Including you and the other posters who think that while thousands are dying in Ukraine the only really important question in Kyiv is whether fatso's bum looks big in this photo opportunity. Atrocities = yawn.
Ouch - I'm sorry, sad and somewhat amused by your pain.
Yes, children being raped and murdered is always good for a sardonic chortle.
I don't dispute your right in principle to comment on UK politics from abroad, but when you descend to petty point scoring about electoral outcomes which have no effect on you personally - about 85% of your output - I'm afraid I think Yeah, right: eunuch in a brothel. And on here because your Spanish is not up to any kind of discussion.
Just last week the Government felt Conservative ex-patriots like Felix should be entitled to vote Conservative in our General Elections, even if they haven't troubled our shores for fifteen plus years.
So Felix is perfectly entitled to his opinion on PB from his bolt hole in the sun on how we are governed back in Blighty. His vote is as important to Boris Johnson as yours or mine.
Dont many countries allow ex Patriots to vote permanently? I seem to recall France may even draw up constituencies for them to be represented.
Ex-patriot may well cover the case of Felix, but I think we are primarily talking about expatriates.
Agree with TSE. I'm one of the majority who believe restrictions were lifted too soon. In fact I think we've gone crackers on this. But then, we didn't bring in restrictions fast enough either. The NHS is on its knees right now and so are other industries. As a friend of mine comments, 'the country has gone to the dogs.' Not a reference to Big Dog.
And now of course without free LFT's we've no knowledge of the real figures, which just perpetuates the fear. Johnson is an f-ing idiot.
Speaking of which, he must be cross not to command the front pages. I'm surprised. Only The Observer and Express lead with his photo op trip to Ukraine.
When everyone knows that Johnson's life is just one giant ego trip even newspapers as crass as the Sun and Mail baulk at being sucked into it
What on earth are you going to do when he wins GE24
It is perfectly feasible that the Russian military may collapse, especially if they do not get foreign help.
It's possible but highly unlikely. The Russian military culture absolutely excels at pointlessly dying in large numbers until they grind out a grisly marginal win.
I don't think they have the numbers any more. This isnt 1812 or 1941.
The thing is, they are fighting even less cleverly than in 1812 or WWII.
Long may that continue. Any hope of Ukraine reversing things further rests of Russia doing a shit job I fear.
I think StuartDickson is right about sense of general malaise being key. Hard to quantify, but vital.
I am not sure about that, Boris is very good at boosterism, which is a cure for malaise.
The cost of living squeeze, on the other hand, is an enormous threat to his government and I am not sure how he handles it. Basically, he needs the price of international commodities, especially fuel, to be falling by the election. Possible, but out of his control.
On the other side of the balance sheet his economic policies can let wages rip but this would consolidate and very likely increase inflation which is already a serious concern after the failures of the BoE to increase rates fast enough last year. Economically, we probably need a squeeze to press out our excess consumption and improve our balance of payments but this is usually fatal to governments.
We need the proverbial soft landing which is highly unlikely. Commodity inflation is here to stay for the time being and given Chinese lockdowns now going on will probably get worse.
The Fed, it was being discussed on CNBC last week, will be putting in a couple of 50bp increases. Back to back.
Sickening that as Putin inflicts brutal genocide on the Ukrainian people one of his avowed supporters could soon become President of France in a free and fair election. I think too much of the French to believe it will happen, but even that it could is horrific.
I think it's unlikely, but I do expect her to win 40-45%.
I don' want to upset dear Roger, but the following tweet is interesting:
"NEW: Russia is sending an 8-mi long convoy of 100s of vehicles, including armored vehicles and artillery southbound through the Ukrainian town of Velykyi Burluk.
The convoy is moving about 60 mi east of Ukraine’s 2nd-largest city of Kharkiv, as 🇷🇺 focuses on Donbas."
What has that got to do with Roger? I know, he is a very, very bad man for voting Labour, despising Johnson and having a home in France, but I can't make the link to Putin.
Insane that anyone should be annoyed by Johnson visiting Kyiv. Demonstrating British solidarity with the Ukraine is hugely important and going there is a big part of that. Same with other visits from other European and EU leaders. It is absolutely the right thing to do. This surely goes beyond partisan politics.
For some nothing goes beyond party politics.
Including you and the other posters who think that while thousands are dying in Ukraine the only really important question in Kyiv is whether fatso's bum looks big in this photo opportunity. Atrocities = yawn.
Ouch - I'm sorry, sad and somewhat amused by your pain.
Yes, children being raped and murdered is always good for a sardonic chortle.
I don't dispute your right in principle to comment on UK politics from abroad, but when you descend to petty point scoring about electoral outcomes which have no effect on you personally - about 85% of your output - I'm afraid I think Yeah, right: eunuch in a brothel. And on here because your Spanish is not up to any kind of discussion.
Just last week the Government felt Conservative ex-patriots like Felix should be entitled to vote Conservative in our General Elections, even if they haven't troubled our shores for fifteen plus years.
So Felix is perfectly entitled to his opinion on PB from his bolt hole in the sun on how we are governed back in Blighty. His vote is as important to Boris Johnson as yours or mine.
Quite so. Foreign residents who don't have to live with the consequences of their kiss arse Brexitism are quite electorally important.
I'm not personally a kiss arse Brexit person but I think I should have the right to vote *somewhere*. I don't particularly care whether it's Japan or Britain or even some other country chosen at random which I promise to learn a lot about. But "no vote anywhere unless your country of nationality matches your country of residence" is a bad policy, and the badness will increase as more people move around and end up in the same situation as me.
Personally I feel like the country where you pay tax would be a better criterion than your country of nationality, but apparently most people disagree with me, so they should at least be consistent about it.
I think StuartDickson is right about sense of general malaise being key. Hard to quantify, but vital.
I am not sure about that, Boris is very good at boosterism, which is a cure for malaise.
The cost of living squeeze, on the other hand, is an enormous threat to his government and I am not sure how he handles it. Basically, he needs the price of international commodities, especially fuel, to be falling by the election. Possible, but out of his control.
On the other side of the balance sheet his economic policies can let wages rip but this would consolidate and very likely increase inflation which is already a serious concern after the failures of the BoE to increase rates fast enough last year. Economically, we probably need a squeeze to press out our excess consumption and improve our balance of payments but this is usually fatal to governments.
You can only boost without solving the problem so many times before it stops being effective.
Eventually the chap selling you more and more unrealistic dreams will cause you to snap awake. The cost of living crisis may be that trigger.
Agree with TSE. I'm one of the majority who believe restrictions were lifted too soon. In fact I think we've gone crackers on this. But then, we didn't bring in restrictions fast enough either. The NHS is on its knees right now and so are other industries. As a friend of mine comments, 'the country has gone to the dogs.' Not a reference to Big Dog.
And now of course without free LFT's we've no knowledge of the real figures, which just perpetuates the fear. Johnson is an f-ing idiot.
Speaking of which, he must be cross not to command the front pages. I'm surprised. Only The Observer and Express lead with his photo op trip to Ukraine.
Millions of views on social media already. Quite a few in Russia I bet. Must stick in your throat that.
Good morning
Sky report this morning should make us proud for once of Boris's visit to Ukraine and our role in their defence
I understand why some have such a viserreal dislike of Boris, but for today anyway I believe he has been a credit to our country
But you are bringing party politics into this argument by eulogising Johnson.
Hats off to BigDog for going to Kyiv (although he is not the first- your hated nemesis UVDL was there the day before) and showing British solidarity with the Ukrainian people. As the Ukrainian Government tweeted, he was very "brave", but in my book, no braver than a hatful of other European leaders who have made the same journey. If he had been holed up in the bunker with Zelenskiy marshaling Ukrainian troops during the siege of Kyiv, now that would be brave.
Cynicism for Johnson's motives, even when he does the right thing is not being anti-British. It is a healthy skepticism for a man who has self-indulgent form in pretty much anything he does.
Boris was brave in training Ukrainian troops and supplying Ukraine with some very effective kit. At the same time, Germany and France and Italy were ensuring Moscow could fill its coffers with hydrocarbon purchasers - money that allowed Russia to fund artillery and thermobaric weapons to exterminate the Ukrainian "untermenschen".
So its easy to see where the "bravery" needle points in this conflict.
It really is. At Zelenskiy and the Ukrainian people.
I don' want to upset dear Roger, but the following tweet is interesting:
"NEW: Russia is sending an 8-mi long convoy of 100s of vehicles, including armored vehicles and artillery southbound through the Ukrainian town of Velykyi Burluk.
The convoy is moving about 60 mi east of Ukraine’s 2nd-largest city of Kharkiv, as 🇷🇺 focuses on Donbas."
What has that got to do with Roger? I know, he is a very, very bad man for voting Labour, despising Johnson and having a home in France, but I can't make the link to Putin.
Insane that anyone should be annoyed by Johnson visiting Kyiv. Demonstrating British solidarity with the Ukraine is hugely important and going there is a big part of that. Same with other visits from other European and EU leaders. It is absolutely the right thing to do. This surely goes beyond partisan politics.
For some nothing goes beyond party politics.
Including you and the other posters who think that while thousands are dying in Ukraine the only really important question in Kyiv is whether fatso's bum looks big in this photo opportunity. Atrocities = yawn.
Ouch - I'm sorry, sad and somewhat amused by your pain.
Yes, children being raped and murdered is always good for a sardonic chortle.
I don't dispute your right in principle to comment on UK politics from abroad, but when you descend to petty point scoring about electoral outcomes which have no effect on you personally - about 85% of your output - I'm afraid I think Yeah, right: eunuch in a brothel. And on here because your Spanish is not up to any kind of discussion.
Just last week the Government felt Conservative ex-patriots like Felix should be entitled to vote Conservative in our General Elections, even if they haven't troubled our shores for fifteen plus years.
So Felix is perfectly entitled to his opinion on PB from his bolt hole in the sun on how we are governed back in Blighty. His vote is as important to Boris Johnson as yours or mine.
Quite so. Foreign residents who don't have to live with the consequences of their kiss arse Brexitism are quite electorally important.
I'm not personally a kiss arse Brexit person but I think I should have the right to vote *somewhere*. I don't particularly care whether it's Japan or Britain or even some other country chosen at random which I promise to learn a lot about. But "no vote anywhere unless your country of nationality matches your country of residence" is a bad policy, and the badness will increase as more people move around and end up in the same situation as me.
Personally I feel like the country where you pay tax would be a better criterion than your country of nationality, but apparently most people disagree with me, so they should at least be consistent about it.
That would open the door to disenfranchising most of the very poor and many of the very rich.
I'd weight their views rather more strongly than those who wish to play poker with Putin from thousands of miles away.
That is because of your pitifully weak grasp of history. It is a truism these days that WW2 was won in the factories and shipyards and oilfields, not at the sharp end. And it is true.
Labour will probably win the next election because people can't afford their bills and the Tories are still putting up taxes; they will hope that Labour will do more for them. That means Labour will take marginals because the cost of living emergency will overtake social or cultural considerations.
The next election will come down to the real basics.
I think StuartDickson is right about sense of general malaise being key. Hard to quantify, but vital.
I am not sure about that, Boris is very good at boosterism, which is a cure for malaise.
The cost of living squeeze, on the other hand, is an enormous threat to his government and I am not sure how he handles it. Basically, he needs the price of international commodities, especially fuel, to be falling by the election. Possible, but out of his control.
On the other side of the balance sheet his economic policies can let wages rip but this would consolidate and very likely increase inflation which is already a serious concern after the failures of the BoE to increase rates fast enough last year. Economically, we probably need a squeeze to press out our excess consumption and improve our balance of payments but this is usually fatal to governments.
We need the proverbial soft landing which is highly unlikely. Commodity inflation is here to stay for the time being and given Chinese lockdowns now going on will probably get worse.
The Fed, it was being discussed on CNBC last week, will be putting in a couple of 50bp increases. Back to back.
We’re in for a tough two years.
That's the way I see it too but I am not sure about the Chinese lockdown. A substantial fall in demand from China may well tip the balance on the supply of commodities into surplus quicker than we expect. They have been the market for steel, coal and concrete for the last 10-15 years. I think that the biggest ever construction bubble on the planet is now at an end and the consequences for their growth are going to be substantial.
Supply chain problems, however, are here to stay. We are going to have to invest and learn how to make a lot more of our own stuff again. That will be a major challenge.
I think StuartDickson is right about sense of general malaise being key. Hard to quantify, but vital.
My personal impression, which could be totally wrong, is that everyone is very tired and fed up after the last two years, which for some have been physically and emotionally gruelling, for others incredibly boring, for others stressful due to the many restrictions and for others still have involved an illness the physical effects of which are still being felt. Plus, we now have nervousness around jobs, incomes and outgoings which is never a pleasant feeling.
The result is that everybody is restive and short-tempered, which shows itself in a number of ways. Very bad driving is one I'm noticing a lot of on my commute to and from work and driving to and from Gloucestershire. Irritation with minor hiccups such as queueing spiralling out of control quickly.
It isn't great. Equally, that isn't altogether the government's fault, and it would be happening whoever was in power.
Not easy to see how it's sorted out either.
Bang on. People are irritable. Minor things are magnified. Even more so online. I think we need a holiday. I know I do. Hopefully all those who crave a week or two on a foreign subbed will get it this summer. But yes it’s been an odd couple of years. Not all bad. Some enjoyed the sense of national unity in lockdown one. My colleague who worked in icu said it was tough and brilliant at the same time. Awful to see sick and dying patients, but the team work and sense of everyone pulling together. Probably a bit like WW2. Personally the first wave and lockdown was fine. Gorgeous weather. Work from home and the challenges to do so we’re fine. Married, with a dog so lovely walks everyday. Proper meal planning based on one shop per week. But then the awful return of Covid in autumn 2020, and the dashed hopes around Christmas. But too, the incredible vaccines and the roll out. The joy of getting a vaccine shot. And now, the worst is over, but it’s still challenging and the clean up will last years if not decades. The sun is shining, but the wind is cold. If you can, get out for a walk and things will feel better, if just for a while.
“We had to beg the Russians to let us bury them. They told us it was still cold, so it didn’t matter, they could lie there. But the dogs were starting to eat them. In the end we convinced them it was a sanitary issue and they let us dig the grave at the church of Andrew the Apostle since it was near both their military position and the morgue and hospital.”
It is perfectly feasible that the Russian military may collapse, especially if they do not get foreign help.
It's possible but highly unlikely. The Russian military culture absolutely excels at pointlessly dying in large numbers until they grind out a grisly marginal win.
I don't think they have the numbers any more. This isnt 1812 or 1941.
The thing is, they are fighting even less cleverly than in 1812 or WWII.
They seem to have poor NCOs and a lack of understanding of rudimentary tactics. I presume this is why senior officer casualties have been so high.
For example, advancing all vehicles down a single highway without any infantry covering the flanks - NLAWs only have an 800m range.
Insane that anyone should be annoyed by Johnson visiting Kyiv. Demonstrating British solidarity with the Ukraine is hugely important and going there is a big part of that. Same with other visits from other European and EU leaders. It is absolutely the right thing to do. This surely goes beyond partisan politics.
Fair play for saying that, given your general dislike of the guy.
Some things are more important than base party politics, and in this case the PM is symbolic of the huge efforts by the British into the Ukranian war effort, for which the Ukranians are very grateful indeed. 🇺🇦🇬🇧
I think StuartDickson is right about sense of general malaise being key. Hard to quantify, but vital.
I am not sure about that, Boris is very good at boosterism, which is a cure for malaise.
The cost of living squeeze, on the other hand, is an enormous threat to his government and I am not sure how he handles it. Basically, he needs the price of international commodities, especially fuel, to be falling by the election. Possible, but out of his control.
On the other side of the balance sheet his economic policies can let wages rip but this would consolidate and very likely increase inflation which is already a serious concern after the failures of the BoE to increase rates fast enough last year. Economically, we probably need a squeeze to press out our excess consumption and improve our balance of payments but this is usually fatal to governments.
We need the proverbial soft landing which is highly unlikely. Commodity inflation is here to stay for the time being and given Chinese lockdowns now going on will probably get worse.
The Fed, it was being discussed on CNBC last week, will be putting in a couple of 50bp increases. Back to back.
We’re in for a tough two years.
If things aren't too bad, boosterism can work and create a virtuous cycle of positivity. However, there comes a point where boosterism is not just not helpful but definitely annoying.
I don't know which side of that line the coming bad times will be, but a lot of BoJo's fate depends on that.
I don' want to upset dear Roger, but the following tweet is interesting:
"NEW: Russia is sending an 8-mi long convoy of 100s of vehicles, including armored vehicles and artillery southbound through the Ukrainian town of Velykyi Burluk.
The convoy is moving about 60 mi east of Ukraine’s 2nd-largest city of Kharkiv, as 🇷🇺 focuses on Donbas."
What has that got to do with Roger? I know, he is a very, very bad man for voting Labour, despising Johnson and having a home in France, but I can't make the link to Putin.
Insane that anyone should be annoyed by Johnson visiting Kyiv. Demonstrating British solidarity with the Ukraine is hugely important and going there is a big part of that. Same with other visits from other European and EU leaders. It is absolutely the right thing to do. This surely goes beyond partisan politics.
For some nothing goes beyond party politics.
Including you and the other posters who think that while thousands are dying in Ukraine the only really important question in Kyiv is whether fatso's bum looks big in this photo opportunity. Atrocities = yawn.
Ouch - I'm sorry, sad and somewhat amused by your pain.
Yes, children being raped and murdered is always good for a sardonic chortle.
I don't dispute your right in principle to comment on UK politics from abroad, but when you descend to petty point scoring about electoral outcomes which have no effect on you personally - about 85% of your output - I'm afraid I think Yeah, right: eunuch in a brothel. And on here because your Spanish is not up to any kind of discussion.
Just last week the Government felt Conservative ex-patriots like Felix should be entitled to vote Conservative in our General Elections, even if they haven't troubled our shores for fifteen plus years.
So Felix is perfectly entitled to his opinion on PB from his bolt hole in the sun on how we are governed back in Blighty. His vote is as important to Boris Johnson as yours or mine.
Quite so. Foreign residents who don't have to live with the consequences of their kiss arse Brexitism are quite electorally important.
I'm not personally a kiss arse Brexit person but I think I should have the right to vote *somewhere*. I don't particularly care whether it's Japan or Britain or even some other country chosen at random which I promise to learn a lot about. But "no vote anywhere unless your country of nationality matches your country of residence" is a bad policy, and the badness will increase as more people move around and end up in the same situation as me.
Personally I feel like the country where you pay tax would be a better criterion than your country of nationality, but apparently most people disagree with me, so they should at least be consistent about it.
That would open the door to disenfranchising most of the very poor and many of the very rich.
Sorry, I should have been more precise, I mean the country where you'd have to pay tax if you paid tax, I don't mean people should be disfranchized if they're resident in the UK for tax purposes but aren't making any money.
Insane that anyone should be annoyed by Johnson visiting Kyiv. Demonstrating British solidarity with the Ukraine is hugely important and going there is a big part of that. Same with other visits from other European and EU leaders. It is absolutely the right thing to do. This surely goes beyond partisan politics.
Fair play for saying that, given your general dislike of the guy.
Some things are more important than base party politics, and in this case the PM is symbolic of the huge efforts by the British into the Ukranian war effort, for which the Ukranians are very grateful indeed. 🇺🇦🇬🇧
No, that is a get out of jail card he does not deserve. Yes, we should temporarily forget differences over rates of inheritance tax or energy policy or Channel 4, but not his fundamental greed and selfishness and above all dishonesty.
"We assess that the Russian military will struggle to amass a large and combat-capable force of mechanized units to operate in Donbas within the next few months. Russia will likely continue to throw badly damaged and partially reconstituted units piecemeal into offensive operations that make limited gains at great cost.[1] The Russians likely will make gains nevertheless and may either trap or wear down Ukrainian forces enough to secure much of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts, but it is at least equally likely that these Russian offensives will culminate before reaching their objectives, as similar Russian operations have done."
I don' want to upset dear Roger, but the following tweet is interesting:
"NEW: Russia is sending an 8-mi long convoy of 100s of vehicles, including armored vehicles and artillery southbound through the Ukrainian town of Velykyi Burluk.
The convoy is moving about 60 mi east of Ukraine’s 2nd-largest city of Kharkiv, as 🇷🇺 focuses on Donbas."
What has that got to do with Roger? I know, he is a very, very bad man for voting Labour, despising Johnson and having a home in France, but I can't make the link to Putin.
Insane that anyone should be annoyed by Johnson visiting Kyiv. Demonstrating British solidarity with the Ukraine is hugely important and going there is a big part of that. Same with other visits from other European and EU leaders. It is absolutely the right thing to do. This surely goes beyond partisan politics.
For some nothing goes beyond party politics.
Including you and the other posters who think that while thousands are dying in Ukraine the only really important question in Kyiv is whether fatso's bum looks big in this photo opportunity. Atrocities = yawn.
Ouch - I'm sorry, sad and somewhat amused by your pain.
Yes, children being raped and murdered is always good for a sardonic chortle.
I don't dispute your right in principle to comment on UK politics from abroad, but when you descend to petty point scoring about electoral outcomes which have no effect on you personally - about 85% of your output - I'm afraid I think Yeah, right: eunuch in a brothel. And on here because your Spanish is not up to any kind of discussion.
Just last week the Government felt Conservative ex-patriots like Felix should be entitled to vote Conservative in our General Elections, even if they haven't troubled our shores for fifteen plus years.
So Felix is perfectly entitled to his opinion on PB from his bolt hole in the sun on how we are governed back in Blighty. His vote is as important to Boris Johnson as yours or mine.
Quite so. Foreign residents who don't have to live with the consequences of their kiss arse Brexitism are quite electorally important.
I'm not personally a kiss arse Brexit person but I think I should have the right to vote *somewhere*. I don't particularly care whether it's Japan or Britain or even some other country chosen at random which I promise to learn a lot about. But "no vote anywhere unless your country of nationality matches your country of residence" is a bad policy, and the badness will increase as more people move around and end up in the same situation as me.
Personally I feel like the country where you pay tax would be a better criterion than your country of nationality, but apparently most people disagree with me, so they should at least be consistent about it.
My son, domiciled in Thailand, feels much the same.
It is perfectly feasible that the Russian military may collapse, especially if they do not get foreign help.
It's possible but highly unlikely. The Russian military culture absolutely excels at pointlessly dying in large numbers until they grind out a grisly marginal win.
When did Russia/USSR last lose so many men in a war?
I’m sure they didn’t in Syria or Chechnya.. Afghanistan? I thought the numbers there were similar to Ukraine so far, but over years. And they lost there and some say it led to the fall of the USSR.
So do we go back 80 odd years to WW2. Which was beating the Nazis. I wouldn’t say they “pointlessly” died then.
Depends on how you define 'pointless.' Yes, they were winning a war against a uniquely evil regime. One which, remarkably, was even worse than their own.
However, very often they died because of the callousness and incompetence of their generals, who hurled enormous numbers of men at defended positions on the calculation that some at least would survive and get through. A little like Grant's calculation in 1864, but on a scale of millions. The German army could have been overwhelmed at far lower cost with a little more planning and care.
The irony is that the British WWI generals so beloved of Marxist historiography (and, oddly, Alan Clark) in the 1960s were actually largely a myth, but that myth could easily have been applied to the Soviet generals of World War Two with perfect accuracy.
Zhukov in particular could have been a model for Pratchett's analysis of Ronnie Rust's generalship: 'military doctrine states the key principle of any battle is there should be massive casualties. If they were on the other side, this was regarded as a valuable bonus.'
So arguably, many of their deaths were pointless.
Bit unfair to Grant, who was notably solicitous of his troops’ safety.
I'd weight their views rather more strongly than those who wish to play poker with Putin from thousands of miles away.
I'd be wary of anyone. What do a couple of former military people in specific areas know about up to date military matters in areas far beyond their roles, which also have vast geo political inputs and impacts?
We could find 100s of people online who have more experience than dura and topping and many might take a completely different view of the situation, in which case why aren't you listening to their views instead? What if the view of an ignorant pber aligns with that person of greater experience and knowledge? Particularly in a conflict which may be very different to their own experiences.
I greatly welcome the insight of those with actual military knowledge on PB, I cannot tell a tank from an APC, but as we know very well knowing a bit more about X doesn't necessarily give greater insight into Y, and those with a bit of knowledge can easily think it broader and more transferable than it is.
Given there are issues of international relations and diplomacy at play, far above the level of ordinary soldier experience, merely having served in a military is not itself going to make someone better able to assess things.
The insight about actually being in the armed forces is invaluable, but that doesnt mean it makes sense that everyone else should defer on assessments of this situation.
"We assess that the Russian military will struggle to amass a large and combat-capable force of mechanized units to operate in Donbas within the next few months. Russia will likely continue to throw badly damaged and partially reconstituted units piecemeal into offensive operations that make limited gains at great cost.[1] The Russians likely will make gains nevertheless and may either trap or wear down Ukrainian forces enough to secure much of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts, but it is at least equally likely that these Russian offensives will culminate before reaching their objectives, as similar Russian operations have done."
I don' want to upset dear Roger, but the following tweet is interesting:
"NEW: Russia is sending an 8-mi long convoy of 100s of vehicles, including armored vehicles and artillery southbound through the Ukrainian town of Velykyi Burluk.
The convoy is moving about 60 mi east of Ukraine’s 2nd-largest city of Kharkiv, as 🇷🇺 focuses on Donbas."
What has that got to do with Roger? I know, he is a very, very bad man for voting Labour, despising Johnson and having a home in France, but I can't make the link to Putin.
Insane that anyone should be annoyed by Johnson visiting Kyiv. Demonstrating British solidarity with the Ukraine is hugely important and going there is a big part of that. Same with other visits from other European and EU leaders. It is absolutely the right thing to do. This surely goes beyond partisan politics.
For some nothing goes beyond party politics.
Including you and the other posters who think that while thousands are dying in Ukraine the only really important question in Kyiv is whether fatso's bum looks big in this photo opportunity. Atrocities = yawn.
Ouch - I'm sorry, sad and somewhat amused by your pain.
Yes, children being raped and murdered is always good for a sardonic chortle.
I don't dispute your right in principle to comment on UK politics from abroad, but when you descend to petty point scoring about electoral outcomes which have no effect on you personally - about 85% of your output - I'm afraid I think Yeah, right: eunuch in a brothel. And on here because your Spanish is not up to any kind of discussion.
Just last week the Government felt Conservative ex-patriots like Felix should be entitled to vote Conservative in our General Elections, even if they haven't troubled our shores for fifteen plus years.
So Felix is perfectly entitled to his opinion on PB from his bolt hole in the sun on how we are governed back in Blighty. His vote is as important to Boris Johnson as yours or mine.
Quite so. Foreign residents who don't have to live with the consequences of their kiss arse Brexitism are quite electorally important.
I'm not personally a kiss arse Brexit person but I think I should have the right to vote *somewhere*. I don't particularly care whether it's Japan or Britain or even some other country chosen at random which I promise to learn a lot about. But "no vote anywhere unless your country of nationality matches your country of residence" is a bad policy, and the badness will increase as more people move around and end up in the same situation as me.
Personally I feel like the country where you pay tax would be a better criterion than your country of nationality, but apparently most people disagree with me, so they should at least be consistent about it.
Surely in the end it is down to an individual country how they organise their franchise irrespective of what other countries are doing and as long as they follow some basic rules of democracy then I don't really get the criticism.
Personally my view is that anyone who has moved out of the country permanently should lose their right to vote in any elections. It is up for debate what the timescale should be for retaining the vote. 5 Years seems reasonable for that as you would be returning within the next electoral cycle. Anything longer and you lose the vote until you settle back in Britain.
If that means you don't get to vote anywhere because of other countries' rules then that is just tough. Complain about their rules not the ones of the country you have left. British expats settled on the other side of the world voting in a referendum that will not impact them was a particularly poor sight.
As for immigrants settling in this country. If they want to vote in the national elections then they should take citizenship and by doing so show they are committing to a future in the country. And the more the merrier.
I don' want to upset dear Roger, but the following tweet is interesting:
"NEW: Russia is sending an 8-mi long convoy of 100s of vehicles, including armored vehicles and artillery southbound through the Ukrainian town of Velykyi Burluk.
The convoy is moving about 60 mi east of Ukraine’s 2nd-largest city of Kharkiv, as 🇷🇺 focuses on Donbas."
What has that got to do with Roger? I know, he is a very, very bad man for voting Labour, despising Johnson and having a home in France, but I can't make the link to Putin.
Insane that anyone should be annoyed by Johnson visiting Kyiv. Demonstrating British solidarity with the Ukraine is hugely important and going there is a big part of that. Same with other visits from other European and EU leaders. It is absolutely the right thing to do. This surely goes beyond partisan politics.
For some nothing goes beyond party politics.
Including you and the other posters who think that while thousands are dying in Ukraine the only really important question in Kyiv is whether fatso's bum looks big in this photo opportunity. Atrocities = yawn.
Ouch - I'm sorry, sad and somewhat amused by your pain.
Yes, children being raped and murdered is always good for a sardonic chortle.
I don't dispute your right in principle to comment on UK politics from abroad, but when you descend to petty point scoring about electoral outcomes which have no effect on you personally - about 85% of your output - I'm afraid I think Yeah, right: eunuch in a brothel. And on here because your Spanish is not up to any kind of discussion.
Just last week the Government felt Conservative ex-patriots like Felix should be entitled to vote Conservative in our General Elections, even if they haven't troubled our shores for fifteen plus years.
So Felix is perfectly entitled to his opinion on PB from his bolt hole in the sun on how we are governed back in Blighty. His vote is as important to Boris Johnson as yours or mine.
Dont many countries allow ex Patriots to vote permanently? I seem to recall France may even draw up constituencies for them to be represented.
The practicality of doing it seems to vary quite a bit though, for instance French people in Japan seem to have to drag themselves down to the consulate in Tokyo and line up for a long time.
I think StuartDickson is right about sense of general malaise being key. Hard to quantify, but vital.
I am not sure about that, Boris is very good at boosterism, which is a cure for malaise.
The cost of living squeeze, on the other hand, is an enormous threat to his government and I am not sure how he handles it. Basically, he needs the price of international commodities, especially fuel, to be falling by the election. Possible, but out of his control.
On the other side of the balance sheet his economic policies can let wages rip but this would consolidate and very likely increase inflation which is already a serious concern after the failures of the BoE to increase rates fast enough last year. Economically, we probably need a squeeze to press out our excess consumption and improve our balance of payments but this is usually fatal to governments.
We need the proverbial soft landing which is highly unlikely. Commodity inflation is here to stay for the time being and given Chinese lockdowns now going on will probably get worse.
The Fed, it was being discussed on CNBC last week, will be putting in a couple of 50bp increases. Back to back.
We’re in for a tough two years.
That's the way I see it too but I am not sure about the Chinese lockdown. A substantial fall in demand from China may well tip the balance on the supply of commodities into surplus quicker than we expect. They have been the market for steel, coal and concrete for the last 10-15 years. I think that the biggest ever construction bubble on the planet is now at an end and the consequences for their growth are going to be substantial.
Supply chain problems, however, are here to stay. We are going to have to invest and learn how to make a lot more of our own stuff again. That will be a major challenge.
I read a crazy stat on a finance site that the Chinese had produced more steel in the last two years than we had since the industrial revolution.
our manufacturing sector relies on the far east for products. Especially China. I can see an already struggling automotive sector really grinding to a halt if it cannot get its cheap products from there. Onshoring is going to be a major trend now. I agree it is a major challenge. We have happily let our manufacturing base dwindle and we lack a large skills base.
I'd weight their views rather more strongly than those who wish to play poker with Putin from thousands of miles away.
I'd be wary of anyone. What do a couple of former military people in specific areas know about up to date military matters in areas far beyond their roles, which also have vast geo political inputs and impacts?
We could find 100s of people online who have more experience than dura and topping and many might take a completely different view of the situation, in which case why aren't you listening to their views instead? What if the view of an ignorant pber aligns with that person of greater experience and knowledge? Particularly in a conflict which may be very different to their own experiences.
I greatly welcome the insight of those with actual military knowledge on PB, I cannot tell a tank from an APC, but as we know very well knowing a bit more about X doesn't necessarily give greater insight into Y, and those with a bit of knowledge can easily think it broader and more transferable than it is.
Given there are issues of international relations and diplomacy at play, far above the level of ordinary soldier experience, merely having served in a military is not itself going to make someone better able to assess things.
The insight about actually being in the armed forces is invaluable, but that doesnt mean it makes sense that everyone else should defer on assessments of this situation.
Quite. I'm a solicitor. It doesn't mean that I know everything about the law, or that non-lawyers are unqualified to discuss legal matters.
I'd weight their views rather more strongly than those who wish to play poker with Putin from thousands of miles away.
I'd be wary of anyone. What do a couple of former military people in specific areas know about up to date military matters in areas far beyond their roles, which also have vast geo political inputs and impacts?
We could find 100s of people online who have more experience than dura and topping and many might take a completely different view of the situation, in which case why aren't you listening to their views instead? What if the view of an ignorant pber aligns with that person of greater experience and knowledge? Particularly in a conflict which may be very different to their own experiences.
I greatly welcome the insight of those with actual military knowledge on PB, I cannot tell a tank from an APC, but as we know very well knowing a bit more about X doesn't necessarily give greater insight into Y, and those with a bit of knowledge can easily think it broader and more transferable than it is.
Given there are issues of international relations and diplomacy at play, far above the level of ordinary soldier experience, merely having served in a military is not itself going to make someone better able to assess things.
The insight about actually being in the armed forces is invaluable, but that doesnt mean it makes sense that everyone else should defer on assessments of this situation.
If you are relying on me for insight you're fucked. If I have specific knowledge or an opinion I'll offer it. That's it and an opinion is all it is.
People always believe what they want to believe. A Corbyniite friend of mine, when he's had a few, tries to persuade me of the righteousness of Putin's cause. Why? Because all Ukranians are Nazis - Putin says so. He'll believe the Swedes are too, if Putin says so. Like Corbyn, evidence is irrelevant.
Therefore, NATO are the enemy.
Activists are like that. Certain things are inviolate, facts must be fitted to that mindset.
I think Bojo is a very poor PM, but he occasionally does something right. He selected the right woman to organise the vaccine roll-out, and he has the right instincts over Ukraine. I think Starmer's heart is in the right place, but he over-thinks. "What's a woman?" Say what you think. Go with the biology. A Y chromosome? Extremely rare exceptions. A dick? Not in my experience. There, that wasn't so hard, was it.
I sometimes wish politicians would give a nuanced answer to this
There are people who feel uncomfortable (if that is the right term) in their birth bodies and we must be sympathetic and fully supportive of them as they seek the path that is right for them
At the same time we have certain rights and protections that are established on the basis of physical characteristics and those people need our protection and support as well.
PBers have been completely inaccurate re sanctions and the impact on Russian ability to fight the war.
"Will not be able to continue beyond the end of the month at the longest" was the common view in mid March
Was it ? I think it’s regularly been remarked that oil revenues insulate Putin’s decision making from what are nevertheless severe economic effects of sanctions.
Sanctions will continue to degrade Russian ability to replace losses, but they have a huge amount of kit, however obsolete, and can sustain lower level operations for some time - hence the consolidation in the south and east.
Agree with TSE. I'm one of the majority who believe restrictions were lifted too soon. In fact I think we've gone crackers on this. But then, we didn't bring in restrictions fast enough either. The NHS is on its knees right now and so are other industries. As a friend of mine comments, 'the country has gone to the dogs.' Not a reference to Big Dog.
And now of course without free LFT's we've no knowledge of the real figures, which just perpetuates the fear. Johnson is an f-ing idiot.
Speaking of which, he must be cross not to command the front pages. I'm surprised. Only The Observer and Express lead with his photo op trip to Ukraine.
Millions of views on social media already. Quite a few in Russia I bet. Must stick in your throat that.
Good morning
Sky report this morning should make us proud for once of Boris's visit to Ukraine and our role in their defence
I understand why some have such a viserreal dislike of Boris, but for today anyway I believe he has been a credit to our country
But you are bringing party politics into this argument by eulogising Johnson.
Hats off to BigDog for going to Kyiv (although he is not the first- your hated nemesis UVDL was there the day before) and showing British solidarity with the Ukrainian people. As the Ukrainian Government tweeted, he was very "brave", but in my book, no braver than a hatful of other European leaders who have made the same journey. If he had been holed up in the bunker with Zelenskiy marshaling Ukrainian troops during the siege of Kyiv, now that would be brave.
Cynicism for Johnson's motives, even when he does the right thing is not being anti-British. It is a healthy skepticism for a man who has self-indulgent form in pretty much anything he does.
Boris was brave in training Ukrainian troops and supplying Ukraine with some very effective kit. At the same time, Germany and France and Italy were ensuring Moscow could fill its coffers with hydrocarbon purchasers - money that allowed Russia to fund artillery and thermobaric weapons to exterminate the Ukrainian "untermenschen".
So its easy to see where the "bravery" needle points in this conflict.
Your jingoism is quite something!
It is quite possible that without our steely resolve to support Ukraine with training and kit, and twisting arms to make sure others joined in, that Kyiv would have fallen - and a grotesque extermination campaign would now be underway.
You can belittle that by tagging it "jngoism". I say it is the very pinnacle of helping democracy survive. It is something of which can be rightly proud. That it has been fronted by Boris I can see sticks in your craw like a furball. I have not been exactly a cheerleader for him in recent months, but I give credit where it is due on Ukraine. I just hope that he can undertake his lucrative lecture tour on "How we stood up for democracy and put the boot in to Putin" sooner rather than later.
Agree with TSE. I'm one of the majority who believe restrictions were lifted too soon. In fact I think we've gone crackers on this. But then, we didn't bring in restrictions fast enough either. The NHS is on its knees right now and so are other industries. As a friend of mine comments, 'the country has gone to the dogs.' Not a reference to Big Dog.
And now of course without free LFT's we've no knowledge of the real figures, which just perpetuates the fear. Johnson is an f-ing idiot.
Speaking of which, he must be cross not to command the front pages. I'm surprised. Only The Observer and Express lead with his photo op trip to Ukraine.
Millions of views on social media already. Quite a few in Russia I bet. Must stick in your throat that.
Good morning
Sky report this morning should make us proud for once of Boris's visit to Ukraine and our role in their defence
I understand why some have such a viserreal dislike of Boris, but for today anyway I believe he has been a credit to our country
But you are bringing party politics into this argument by eulogising Johnson.
Hats off to BigDog for going to Kyiv (although he is not the first- your hated nemesis UVDL was there the day before) and showing British solidarity with the Ukrainian people. As the Ukrainian Government tweeted, he was very "brave", but in my book, no braver than a hatful of other European leaders who have made the same journey. If he had been holed up in the bunker with Zelenskiy marshaling Ukrainian troops during the siege of Kyiv, now that would be brave.
Cynicism for Johnson's motives, even when he does the right thing is not being anti-British. It is a healthy skepticism for a man who has self-indulgent form in pretty much anything he does.
To be fair to BJ (and assuming the Ukrainian Government are telling the truth), it actually was quite risky - if Russian hit squads are still operating in the city, then walking around a city with wide boulevards and plenty of shooting spots is not without risk. I’m sure the hit squads would have had no problem taking out BJ a as long as they got Zelensky (with Putin claiming afterwards they were Ukrainian false flag operatives).
That would have been a very nervy moment for the PM’s security detail, no matter how much they trusted that the Ukranians said the route was clear of enemies.
Ukranian friends are this morning genuinely astonished by the pictures.
"What's a woman?" Say what you think. Go with the biology. A Y chromosome? Extremely rare exceptions. A dick? Not in my experience. There, that wasn't so hard, was it.
I'm not sure what argument you are supposed to be making here as it (and you) seem rather confused. Gender, and sex, are complex. There's no need for me to go into that here because, whatever a few armchair people might think, the next general election is not going to be decided over a debate on transgender rights. On a ranking of the top 50 concerns of people, it wouldn't even feature.
This is the terrible mistake the tories made in 1992-7. John Major thought his back to basics, which is the same table thumping for the Mail readers, would win back the core support.
Actually people didn't give a fuck.
If you actually talk to Baroness Hogg, “back to basics” was intended to be about education (the 3Rs) not the moral crusade the Mail turned it into
PBers have been completely inaccurate re sanctions and the impact on Russian ability to fight the war.
"Will not be able to continue beyond the end of the month at the longest" was the common view in mid March
As I recall that was a view shared from various online sources and people are generally cautious about believing those without reservation. Hardly a pitch perfect summary of the collective view of what will occur, if such could even be gleaned.
Some are more optimistic than others. Some think Ukraine can win outright. Others think they may not be able to take back the areas taken in the south and east, or not entirely. Others fear the next Russisn counter as they focus on the south and east.
It's just dumb to talk of PB predictions which are all over the place. I'd say it trends more positive than negative, and that may not prove right, but the more positive view has had success over the negative who predicted outright defeat or ineffective resistance by this point.
Agree with TSE. I'm one of the majority who believe restrictions were lifted too soon. In fact I think we've gone crackers on this. But then, we didn't bring in restrictions fast enough either. The NHS is on its knees right now and so are other industries. As a friend of mine comments, 'the country has gone to the dogs.' Not a reference to Big Dog.
And now of course without free LFT's we've no knowledge of the real figures, which just perpetuates the fear. Johnson is an f-ing idiot.
Speaking of which, he must be cross not to command the front pages. I'm surprised. Only The Observer and Express lead with his photo op trip to Ukraine.
When everyone knows that Johnson's life is just one giant ego trip even newspapers as crass as the Sun and Mail baulk at being sucked into it
What on earth are you going to do when he wins GE24
And you when he doesn’t ?
I will accept the verdict of the British people
Precisely. It was a pretty silly question the first time around.
I'd weight their views rather more strongly than those who wish to play poker with Putin from thousands of miles away.
I'd be wary of anyone. What do a couple of former military people in specific areas know about up to date military matters in areas far beyond their roles, which also have vast geo political inputs and impacts?
We could find 100s of people online who have more experience than dura and topping and many might take a completely different view of the situation, in which case why aren't you listening to their views instead? What if the view of an ignorant pber aligns with that person of greater experience and knowledge? Particularly in a conflict which may be very different to their own experiences.
I greatly welcome the insight of those with actual military knowledge on PB, I cannot tell a tank from an APC, but as we know very well knowing a bit more about X doesn't necessarily give greater insight into Y, and those with a bit of knowledge can easily think it broader and more transferable than it is.
Given there are issues of international relations and diplomacy at play, far above the level of ordinary soldier experience, merely having served in a military is not itself going to make someone better able to assess things.
The insight about actually being in the armed forces is invaluable, but that doesnt mean it makes sense that everyone else should defer on assessments of this situation.
Yeah... look, this is a multi-million dollar installation! @Dura_Ace and @TOPPING can't make that kind of decision, they're just grunts. no offense.
I'd weight their views rather more strongly than those who wish to play poker with Putin from thousands of miles away.
I'd be wary of anyone. What do a couple of former military people in specific areas know about up to date military matters in areas far beyond their roles, which also have vast geo political inputs and impacts?
We could find 100s of people online who have more experience than dura and topping and many might take a completely different view of the situation, in which case why aren't you listening to their views instead? What if the view of an ignorant pber aligns with that person of greater experience and knowledge? Particularly in a conflict which may be very different to their own experiences.
I greatly welcome the insight of those with actual military knowledge on PB, I cannot tell a tank from an APC, but as we know very well knowing a bit more about X doesn't necessarily give greater insight into Y, and those with a bit of knowledge can easily think it broader and more transferable than it is.
Given there are issues of international relations and diplomacy at play, far above the level of ordinary soldier experience, merely having served in a military is not itself going to make someone better able to assess things.
The insight about actually being in the armed forces is invaluable, but that doesnt mean it makes sense that everyone else should defer on assessments of this situation.
If you are relying on me for insight you're fucked. If I have specific knowledge or an opinion I'll offer it. That's it and an opinion is all it is.
Quite so. I've no doubt you would not elevate yourself beyond which is reasonable, even as you tear to shreds those you think talk bollocks.
I'd weight their views rather more strongly than those who wish to play poker with Putin from thousands of miles away.
That is because of your pitifully weak grasp of history. It is a truism these days that WW2 was won in the factories and shipyards and oilfields, not at the sharp end. And it is true.
Your viewpoint has of course its customary weighting of
Agree with TSE. I'm one of the majority who believe restrictions were lifted too soon. In fact I think we've gone crackers on this. But then, we didn't bring in restrictions fast enough either. The NHS is on its knees right now and so are other industries. As a friend of mine comments, 'the country has gone to the dogs.' Not a reference to Big Dog.
And now of course without free LFT's we've no knowledge of the real figures, which just perpetuates the fear. Johnson is an f-ing idiot.
Speaking of which, he must be cross not to command the front pages. I'm surprised. Only The Observer and Express lead with his photo op trip to Ukraine.
When everyone knows that Johnson's life is just one giant ego trip even newspapers as crass as the Sun and Mail baulk at being sucked into it
What on earth are you going to do when he wins GE24
And you when he doesn’t ?
I will accept the verdict of the British people
Precisely. It was a pretty silly question the first time around.
Indeed, asking us if Boris Johnson should be PM is a very silly question.
I'd weight their views rather more strongly than those who wish to play poker with Putin from thousands of miles away.
That is because of your pitifully weak grasp of history. It is a truism these days that WW2 was won in the factories and shipyards and oilfields, not at the sharp end. And it is true.
Your viewpoint has of course its customary weighting of
Agree with TSE. I'm one of the majority who believe restrictions were lifted too soon. In fact I think we've gone crackers on this. But then, we didn't bring in restrictions fast enough either. The NHS is on its knees right now and so are other industries. As a friend of mine comments, 'the country has gone to the dogs.' Not a reference to Big Dog.
And now of course without free LFT's we've no knowledge of the real figures, which just perpetuates the fear. Johnson is an f-ing idiot.
Speaking of which, he must be cross not to command the front pages. I'm surprised. Only The Observer and Express lead with his photo op trip to Ukraine.
When everyone knows that Johnson's life is just one giant ego trip even newspapers as crass as the Sun and Mail baulk at being sucked into it
What on earth are you going to do when he wins GE24
At least he’ll have the comfort of knowing he didn’t vote for him. The self justifying reasons of those who did will be quite the sight.
My estimate of top 5:
Vaccines We can’t trust the party of Corbyn The sanctity of M&S changing rooms Ukraine BJ may be a FLSOJ but he likes a laff
I think StuartDickson is right about sense of general malaise being key. Hard to quantify, but vital.
I am not sure about that, Boris is very good at boosterism, which is a cure for malaise.
The cost of living squeeze, on the other hand, is an enormous threat to his government and I am not sure how he handles it. Basically, he needs the price of international commodities, especially fuel, to be falling by the election. Possible, but out of his control.
On the other side of the balance sheet his economic policies can let wages rip but this would consolidate and very likely increase inflation which is already a serious concern after the failures of the BoE to increase rates fast enough last year. Economically, we probably need a squeeze to press out our excess consumption and improve our balance of payments but this is usually fatal to governments.
We need the proverbial soft landing which is highly unlikely. Commodity inflation is here to stay for the time being and given Chinese lockdowns now going on will probably get worse.
The Fed, it was being discussed on CNBC last week, will be putting in a couple of 50bp increases. Back to back.
We’re in for a tough two years.
That's the way I see it too but I am not sure about the Chinese lockdown. A substantial fall in demand from China may well tip the balance on the supply of commodities into surplus quicker than we expect. They have been the market for steel, coal and concrete for the last 10-15 years. I think that the biggest ever construction bubble on the planet is now at an end and the consequences for their growth are going to be substantial.
Supply chain problems, however, are here to stay. We are going to have to invest and learn how to make a lot more of our own stuff again. That will be a major challenge.
They offshored manufacturing from the US to Asia two decades ago, and are suffering this year from massive shortages due to the logistics issues.
Those logistics issues are likely to persist for the foreseeable future, at least a couple of years, and are going to lead to a lot more on-shoring of manufacturing. We’ve already seen the impact of chip shortages on new car supply, and the chip manufacturers looking to open massive new plants in the US and Europe as a result.
Agree with TSE. I'm one of the majority who believe restrictions were lifted too soon. In fact I think we've gone crackers on this. But then, we didn't bring in restrictions fast enough either. The NHS is on its knees right now and so are other industries. As a friend of mine comments, 'the country has gone to the dogs.' Not a reference to Big Dog.
And now of course without free LFT's we've no knowledge of the real figures, which just perpetuates the fear. Johnson is an f-ing idiot.
Speaking of which, he must be cross not to command the front pages. I'm surprised. Only The Observer and Express lead with his photo op trip to Ukraine.
Millions of views on social media already. Quite a few in Russia I bet. Must stick in your throat that.
Good morning
Sky report this morning should make us proud for once of Boris's visit to Ukraine and our role in their defence
I understand why some have such a viserreal dislike of Boris, but for today anyway I believe he has been a credit to our country
But you are bringing party politics into this argument by eulogising Johnson.
Hats off to BigDog for going to Kyiv (although he is not the first- your hated nemesis UVDL was there the day before) and showing British solidarity with the Ukrainian people. As the Ukrainian Government tweeted, he was very "brave", but in my book, no braver than a hatful of other European leaders who have made the same journey. If he had been holed up in the bunker with Zelenskiy marshaling Ukrainian troops during the siege of Kyiv, now that would be brave.
Cynicism for Johnson's motives, even when he does the right thing is not being anti-British. It is a healthy skepticism for a man who has self-indulgent form in pretty much anything he does.
To be fair to BJ (and assuming the Ukrainian Government are telling the truth), it actually was quite risky - if Russian hit squads are still operating in the city, then walking around a city with wide boulevards and plenty of shooting spots is not without risk. I’m sure the hit squads would have had no problem taking out BJ a as long as they got Zelensky (with Putin claiming afterwards they were Ukrainian false flag operatives).
That would have been a very nervy moment for the PM’s security detail, no matter how much they trusted that the Ukranians said the route was clear of enemies.
Ukranian friends are this morning genuinely astonished by the pictures.
The earlier leaders going was very risky indeed. The current round of visits shows the situation is less risky, but still far riskier than the likes of Boris or UvDL would be used to. And the risk might be lower, but the impact massive if anything happened.
I don' want to upset dear Roger, but the following tweet is interesting:
"NEW: Russia is sending an 8-mi long convoy of 100s of vehicles, including armored vehicles and artillery southbound through the Ukrainian town of Velykyi Burluk.
The convoy is moving about 60 mi east of Ukraine’s 2nd-largest city of Kharkiv, as 🇷🇺 focuses on Donbas."
What has that got to do with Roger? I know, he is a very, very bad man for voting Labour, despising Johnson and having a home in France, but I can't make the link to Putin.
Insane that anyone should be annoyed by Johnson visiting Kyiv. Demonstrating British solidarity with the Ukraine is hugely important and going there is a big part of that. Same with other visits from other European and EU leaders. It is absolutely the right thing to do. This surely goes beyond partisan politics.
For some nothing goes beyond party politics.
Including you and the other posters who think that while thousands are dying in Ukraine the only really important question in Kyiv is whether fatso's bum looks big in this photo opportunity. Atrocities = yawn.
Ouch - I'm sorry, sad and somewhat amused by your pain.
Yes, children being raped and murdered is always good for a sardonic chortle.
I don't dispute your right in principle to comment on UK politics from abroad, but when you descend to petty point scoring about electoral outcomes which have no effect on you personally - about 85% of your output - I'm afraid I think Yeah, right: eunuch in a brothel. And on here because your Spanish is not up to any kind of discussion.
Just last week the Government felt Conservative ex-patriots like Felix should be entitled to vote Conservative in our General Elections, even if they haven't troubled our shores for fifteen plus years.
So Felix is perfectly entitled to his opinion on PB from his bolt hole in the sun on how we are governed back in Blighty. His vote is as important to Boris Johnson as yours or mine.
Quite so. Foreign residents who don't have to live with the consequences of their kiss arse Brexitism are quite electorally important.
I'm not personally a kiss arse Brexit person but I think I should have the right to vote *somewhere*. I don't particularly care whether it's Japan or Britain or even some other country chosen at random which I promise to learn a lot about. But "no vote anywhere unless your country of nationality matches your country of residence" is a bad policy, and the badness will increase as more people move around and end up in the same situation as me.
Personally I feel like the country where you pay tax would be a better criterion than your country of nationality, but apparently most people disagree with me, so they should at least be consistent about it.
Surely in the end it is down to an individual country how they organise their franchise irrespective of what other countries are doing and as long as they follow some basic rules of democracy then I don't really get the criticism.
Personally my view is that anyone who has moved out of the country permanently should lose their right to vote in any elections. It is up for debate what the timescale should be for retaining the vote. 5 Years seems reasonable for that as you would be returning within the next electoral cycle. Anything longer and you lose the vote until you settle back in Britain…
Seems a bit ungenerous, when we give Non Doms fifteen years before they lose their status….
It's frustrating that the French channels are not even allowed to report that voting is "brisk" (it probably isn't). My understanding is that we will get exit polls at 8pm Paris time. Am I right in thinking, as Paris is GMT+2 and we are currently GMT+ 1 that will be 7pm here?
I don' want to upset dear Roger, but the following tweet is interesting:
"NEW: Russia is sending an 8-mi long convoy of 100s of vehicles, including armored vehicles and artillery southbound through the Ukrainian town of Velykyi Burluk.
The convoy is moving about 60 mi east of Ukraine’s 2nd-largest city of Kharkiv, as 🇷🇺 focuses on Donbas."
What has that got to do with Roger? I know, he is a very, very bad man for voting Labour, despising Johnson and having a home in France, but I can't make the link to Putin.
Insane that anyone should be annoyed by Johnson visiting Kyiv. Demonstrating British solidarity with the Ukraine is hugely important and going there is a big part of that. Same with other visits from other European and EU leaders. It is absolutely the right thing to do. This surely goes beyond partisan politics.
For some nothing goes beyond party politics.
Including you and the other posters who think that while thousands are dying in Ukraine the only really important question in Kyiv is whether fatso's bum looks big in this photo opportunity. Atrocities = yawn.
Ouch - I'm sorry, sad and somewhat amused by your pain.
Yes, children being raped and murdered is always good for a sardonic chortle.
I don't dispute your right in principle to comment on UK politics from abroad, but when you descend to petty point scoring about electoral outcomes which have no effect on you personally - about 85% of your output - I'm afraid I think Yeah, right: eunuch in a brothel. And on here because your Spanish is not up to any kind of discussion.
Just last week the Government felt Conservative ex-patriots like Felix should be entitled to vote Conservative in our General Elections, even if they haven't troubled our shores for fifteen plus years.
So Felix is perfectly entitled to his opinion on PB from his bolt hole in the sun on how we are governed back in Blighty. His vote is as important to Boris Johnson as yours or mine.
Quite so. Foreign residents who don't have to live with the consequences of their kiss arse Brexitism are quite electorally important.
I'm not personally a kiss arse Brexit person but I think I should have the right to vote *somewhere*. I don't particularly care whether it's Japan or Britain or even some other country chosen at random which I promise to learn a lot about. But "no vote anywhere unless your country of nationality matches your country of residence" is a bad policy, and the badness will increase as more people move around and end up in the same situation as me.
Personally I feel like the country where you pay tax would be a better criterion than your country of nationality, but apparently most people disagree with me, so they should at least be consistent about it.
Surely in the end it is down to an individual country how they organise their franchise irrespective of what other countries are doing and as long as they follow some basic rules of democracy then I don't really get the criticism.
Personally my view is that anyone who has moved out of the country permanently should lose their right to vote in any elections. It is up for debate what the timescale should be for retaining the vote. 5 Years seems reasonable for that as you would be returning within the next electoral cycle. Anything longer and you lose the vote until you settle back in Britain…
Seems a bit ungenerous, when we give Non Doms fifteen years before they lose their status….
Seems a bit like discrimination seeing as Dom lost his status after only 2 years.
PBers have been completely inaccurate re sanctions and the impact on Russian ability to fight the war.
"Will not be able to continue beyond the end of the month at the longest" was the common view in mid March
Was it ? I think it’s regularly been remarked that oil revenues insulate Putin’s decision making from what are nevertheless severe economic effects of sanctions.
Sanctions will continue to degrade Russian ability to replace losses, but they have a huge amount of kit, however obsolete, and can sustain lower level operations for some time - hence the consolidation in the south and east.
I haven't heard anything about a shortage of Russian artillery shells, for example.
That is one possible outcome - a territorial stalemate, with Russian continuing to inflict masses amounts of damage with artillery, compelling Ukraine to accept a ceasefire with a further loss of territory and population.
That said, I think it's possible that we are underestimating the ability of the Ukrainians to launch a counter-offensive. They do have some armour already, and if they can keep it safe with improved air defence, knock out another few hundred Russian tanks with NLAWs et al, and make some progress with counter-battery fire, then I think there would be an opportunity.
Agree with TSE. I'm one of the majority who believe restrictions were lifted too soon. In fact I think we've gone crackers on this. But then, we didn't bring in restrictions fast enough either. The NHS is on its knees right now and so are other industries. As a friend of mine comments, 'the country has gone to the dogs.' Not a reference to Big Dog.
And now of course without free LFT's we've no knowledge of the real figures, which just perpetuates the fear. Johnson is an f-ing idiot.
Speaking of which, he must be cross not to command the front pages. I'm surprised. Only The Observer and Express lead with his photo op trip to Ukraine.
When everyone knows that Johnson's life is just one giant ego trip even newspapers as crass as the Sun and Mail baulk at being sucked into it
What on earth are you going to do when he wins GE24
Agree with TSE. I'm one of the majority who believe restrictions were lifted too soon. In fact I think we've gone crackers on this. But then, we didn't bring in restrictions fast enough either. The NHS is on its knees right now and so are other industries. As a friend of mine comments, 'the country has gone to the dogs.' Not a reference to Big Dog.
And now of course without free LFT's we've no knowledge of the real figures, which just perpetuates the fear. Johnson is an f-ing idiot.
Speaking of which, he must be cross not to command the front pages. I'm surprised. Only The Observer and Express lead with his photo op trip to Ukraine.
When everyone knows that Johnson's life is just one giant ego trip even newspapers as crass as the Sun and Mail baulk at being sucked into it
What on earth are you going to do when he wins GE24
At least he’ll have the comfort of knowing he didn’t vote for him. The self justifying reasons of those who did will be quite the sight.
My estimate of top 5:
Vaccines We can’t trust the party of Corbyn The sanctity of M&S changing rooms Ukraine BJ may be a FLSOJ but he likes a laff
The vaccines didn't make much difference in the end did they? The UK was about in the middle of the European averages on deaths and economic fuckedness.
PBers have been completely inaccurate re sanctions and the impact on Russian ability to fight the war.
"Will not be able to continue beyond the end of the month at the longest" was the common view in mid March
Have you missed Russia's wholesale and humiliating retreat from Kyiv?
Kyiv would inevitably fall was the view of those who didn't realise that Russia's army was failing. Russia's army might be capably of holding bits of the Donbas but as far as a wholesale invasion of Ukraine taking the capital which is what they were attempting ... they've already lost that and given up.
Comments
You're not very coherent.
So its easy to see where the "bravery" needle points in this conflict.
So Felix is perfectly entitled to his opinion on PB from his bolt hole in the sun on how we are governed back in Blighty. His vote is as important to Boris Johnson as yours or mine.
I’m headed for the French border today. Whether I cross it will depend on the time and my tiredness when I get to Portbou (I haven’t booked tonight’s room yet). I could have taken a short route along the coast, but that would have meant walking on a busy road’s hard shoulder, so I’ve for the five mile longer “scenic” route..
It looks like I’ve got some more climbing to do!
Moving forward there are better things we can do that are not restrictions. The use of hepa filtered air purifiers looks to be very effective. My wife has several to help with allergies and they are reasonably cheap (a few hundred pounds say). Better to use that in a classroom than masks.
The ONS sends out the tests.
It's got nothing to do with the supply of free/paid for LFTs.
The UK was doing massively more free LFT testing than any other G7 country and had to be ended at some stage.
Of course "free" = "tax payer paid for".
To the point of substance - why hasn't Scotland done better than England, despite maintaining restrictions longer?
Our priority is to make the long war option less viable. That means inflicting as much pain as we can on the Russian economy by sanctions and on the oligarchs, especially those close to Putin. That is hard for us too, particularly Europe, who built such a dependency on Russian gas.
We need to keep the flow of weapons and training going so that Ukraine can sustain a long war.
And we have to hope and pray that Zelinskyy lives. Not since at least Churchill has anyone so epitomised the will and very existence of a nation.
Yours is upsetting, but at least more realistic than his, even as he claims his to be realistic.
Like I said, even when he does the right thing those of us not of the faith question why? Is it because we are cynical wretches or because Johnson has "World King, World beating" form stretching back to his childhood.
PM given gift on streets of Kyiv
https://news.sky.com/video/share-12586776
He’s an old lefty. They can’t help it
https://twitter.com/expatua/status/1512701296796700676
The result is that everybody is restive and short-tempered, which shows itself in a number of ways. Very bad driving is one I'm noticing a lot of on my commute to and from work and driving to and from Gloucestershire. Irritation with minor hiccups such as queueing spiralling out of control quickly.
It isn't great. Equally, that isn't altogether the government's fault, and it would be happening whoever was in power.
Not easy to see how it's sorted out either.
The cost of living squeeze, on the other hand, is an enormous threat to his government and I am not sure how he handles it. Basically, he needs the price of international commodities, especially fuel, to be falling by the election. Possible, but out of his control.
On the other side of the balance sheet his economic policies can let wages rip but this would consolidate and very likely increase inflation which is already a serious concern after the failures of the BoE to increase rates fast enough last year. Economically, we probably need a squeeze to press out our excess consumption and improve our balance of payments but this is usually fatal to governments.
However, I would caution that if studying Russian history has taught me anything it's that Russia and the Russian people are incredibly resilient and determined. They will frequently take unimaginable and to anyone else unsurvivable punishment and still somehow come back from it.
My personal fear is that having taken a humiliating pounding from the Ukrainians they will now decide to throw everything into the scale and launch a full on genocidal war with all weapons at their disposal.
But hopefully you're right and my forecast is as accurate as my forecasts usually are.
Video of his train journey
Boris Johnson on Ukrainian train
https://news.sky.com/video/share-12586946
I am truly amazed at the fantastic amount of military expertise on display on pb.com today.
AFAIK, the only person who has any experience in war is @Dura_Ace
And perhaps, @TOPPING
I'd weight their views rather more strongly than those who wish to play poker with Putin from thousands of miles away.
The Fed, it was being discussed on CNBC last week, will be putting in a couple of 50bp increases. Back to back.
We’re in for a tough two years.
Personally I feel like the country where you pay tax would be a better criterion than your country of nationality, but apparently most people disagree with me, so they should at least be consistent about it.
Eventually the chap selling you more and more unrealistic dreams will cause you to snap awake. The cost of living crisis may be that trigger.
"Will not be able to continue beyond the end of the month at the longest" was the common view in mid March
The next election will come down to the real basics.
Supply chain problems, however, are here to stay. We are going to have to invest and learn how to make a lot more of our own stuff again. That will be a major challenge.
I think we need a holiday. I know I do. Hopefully all those who crave a week or two on a foreign subbed will get it this summer. But yes it’s been an odd couple of years. Not all bad. Some enjoyed the sense of national unity in lockdown one. My colleague who worked in icu said it was tough and brilliant at the same time. Awful to see sick and dying patients, but the team work and sense of everyone pulling together. Probably a bit like WW2. Personally the first wave and lockdown was fine. Gorgeous weather. Work from home and the challenges to do so we’re fine. Married, with a dog so lovely walks everyday. Proper meal planning based on one shop per week.
But then the awful return of Covid in autumn 2020, and the dashed hopes around Christmas.
But too, the incredible vaccines and the roll out. The joy of getting a vaccine shot.
And now, the worst is over, but it’s still challenging and the clean up will last years if not decades.
The sun is shining, but the wind is cold. If you can, get out for a walk and things will feel better, if just for a while.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/09/with-bloodied-gloves-forensic-teams-uncover-gruesome-secrets-of-bucha-in-ukraine
For example, advancing all vehicles down a single highway without any infantry covering the flanks - NLAWs only have an 800m range.
Some things are more important than base party politics, and in this case the PM is symbolic of the huge efforts by the British into the Ukranian war effort, for which the Ukranians are very grateful indeed. 🇺🇦🇬🇧
I don't know which side of that line the coming bad times will be, but a lot of BoJo's fate depends on that.
I entered "Keep Calmer and Vote Starmer" into the SUNIL-E database, and it came up with this:
I need to look at the seats again but surely they could pickup 7 or so seats at a GE.
Every seat makes it easier for Starmer to ignore the SNP. I think the magic number for him is 300 seats or more.
We could find 100s of people online who have more experience than dura and topping and many might take a completely different view of the situation, in which case why aren't you listening to their views instead? What if the view of an ignorant pber aligns with that person of greater experience and knowledge? Particularly in a conflict which may be very different to their own experiences.
I greatly welcome the insight of those with actual military knowledge on PB, I cannot tell a tank from an APC, but as we know very well knowing a bit more about X doesn't necessarily give greater insight into Y, and those with a bit of knowledge can easily think it broader and more transferable than it is.
Given there are issues of international relations and diplomacy at play, far above the level of ordinary soldier experience, merely having served in a military is not itself going to make someone better able to assess things.
The insight about actually being in the armed forces is invaluable, but that doesnt mean it makes sense that everyone else should defer on assessments of this situation.
Personally my view is that anyone who has moved out of the country permanently should lose their right to vote in any elections. It is up for debate what the timescale should be for retaining the vote. 5 Years seems reasonable for that as you would be returning within the next electoral cycle. Anything longer and you lose the vote until you settle back in Britain.
If that means you don't get to vote anywhere because of other countries' rules then that is just tough. Complain about their rules not the ones of the country you have left. British expats settled on the other side of the world voting in a referendum that will not impact them was a particularly poor sight.
As for immigrants settling in this country. If they want to vote in the national elections then they should take citizenship and by doing so show they are committing to a future in the country. And the more the merrier.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Right_of_expatriates_to_vote_in_their_country_of_origin
The practicality of doing it seems to vary quite a bit though, for instance French people in Japan seem to have to drag themselves down to the consulate in Tokyo and line up for a long time.
our manufacturing sector relies on the far east for products. Especially China. I can see an already struggling automotive sector really grinding to a halt if it cannot get its cheap products from there. Onshoring is going to be a major trend now. I agree it is a major challenge. We have happily let our manufacturing base dwindle and we lack a large skills base.
There are people who feel uncomfortable (if that is the right term) in their birth bodies and we must be sympathetic and fully supportive of them as they seek the path that is right for them
At the same time we have certain rights and protections that are established on the basis of physical characteristics and those people need our protection and support as well.
I think it’s regularly been remarked that oil revenues insulate Putin’s decision making from what are nevertheless severe economic effects of sanctions.
Sanctions will continue to degrade Russian ability to replace losses, but they have a huge amount of kit, however obsolete, and can sustain lower level operations for some time - hence the consolidation in the south and east.
You can belittle that by tagging it "jngoism". I say it is the very pinnacle of helping democracy survive. It is something of which can be rightly proud. That it has been fronted by Boris I can see sticks in your craw like a furball. I have not been exactly a cheerleader for him in recent months, but I give credit where it is due on Ukraine. I just hope that he can undertake his lucrative lecture tour on "How we stood up for democracy and put the boot in to Putin" sooner rather than later.
Ukranian friends are this morning genuinely astonished by the pictures.
Some are more optimistic than others. Some think Ukraine can win outright. Others think they may not be able to take back the areas taken in the south and east, or not entirely. Others fear the next Russisn counter as they focus on the south and east.
It's just dumb to talk of PB predictions which are all over the place. I'd say it trends more positive than negative, and that may not prove right, but the more positive view has had success over the negative who predicted outright defeat or ineffective resistance by this point.
It was a pretty silly question the first time around.
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1513072020963086342
Gμ ν + Λ g μ ν - Κ T μ ν
My estimate of top 5:
Vaccines
We can’t trust the party of Corbyn
The sanctity of M&S changing rooms
Ukraine
BJ may be a FLSOJ but he likes a laff
Levi Strauss chairman: “Globalisation is Dead”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/04/08/globalisation-dead-declares-levis-boss/
They offshored manufacturing from the US to Asia two decades ago, and are suffering this year from massive shortages due to the logistics issues.
Those logistics issues are likely to persist for the foreseeable future, at least a couple of years, and are going to lead to a lot more on-shoring of manufacturing. We’ve already seen the impact of chip shortages on new car supply, and the chip manufacturers looking to open massive new plants in the US and Europe as a result.
That is one possible outcome - a territorial stalemate, with Russian continuing to inflict masses amounts of damage with artillery, compelling Ukraine to accept a ceasefire with a further loss of territory and population.
That said, I think it's possible that we are underestimating the ability of the Ukrainians to launch a counter-offensive. They do have some armour already, and if they can keep it safe with improved air defence, knock out another few hundred Russian tanks with NLAWs et al, and make some progress with counter-battery fire, then I think there would be an opportunity.
Kyiv would inevitably fall was the view of those who didn't realise that Russia's army was failing. Russia's army might be capably of holding bits of the Donbas but as far as a wholesale invasion of Ukraine taking the capital which is what they were attempting ... they've already lost that and given up.