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Known unknowns – politicalbetting.com
Known unknowns – politicalbetting.com
Brits think the removal of all COVID-19 restrictions has happened…Too soon: 44%The right time: 34%Not soon enough: 13%https://t.co/PQp3XNmL9q pic.twitter.com/DPjCTQntCK
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And now of course without free LFT's we've no knowledge of the real figures, which just perpetuates the fear. Johnson is an f-ing idiot.
Speaking of which, he must be cross not to command the front pages. I'm surprised. Only The Observer and Express lead with his photo op trip to Ukraine.
Number 1 will be the cost of living crisis and the first major decline in living standards since the 1950s. To populations not hardened by the trials of war, this is going to be a major societal and political shock.
Number 2 is the general feeling of malaise. Covid being only a small part of that. The list of contributing factors is long, but in summary, people are ill at ease. Something is not quite right, and the Conservatives are part of the problem, not part of the solution.
Con Maj 3.1
Lab Maj 5.3
I had a discussion in the sauna at my local swimming pool last week. One guy was going on about how he supported Russia, as 'only a few thousand' had died in Ukraine, whereas in Iraq and Afghanistan, the UK and US had killed 1 to 2 million civilians. The interesting thing, is that this guy doesn't come across as stupid - he is a martial arts expert, travelling around the country doing demonstrations. From what I could see and hear, it seems like he has got in to the trap of thinking that he understands international affairs, and had become convinced of the belief that 'we are always evil' and are responsible for every death in every war that we have become involved in - the perspective that you might get if you read books by Noam Chomsky for instance. His support for Russia was a consequence of this revulsion.
To try and talk someone out of that position (I didn't try, other than to correct him on a couple of factual points) would be very, very difficult.
Ultimately, you need propoganda - to make conflicts in to simple things that people understand. I am amazed at the success of Ukraine at this, but Russia have helped them a lot by their conduct, and continue to do so as the war goes on.
This is one of the stats that cheers me the most: retention of voters.
Voting intention, by vote at 2019 UK GE
SNP 97%
PC 96%
Lab 89%
Con 82%
LD 70%
(SavantaComRes; 25-27 March; 2,226)
Coupled with top of the table ‘Certain to Vote’ figures for Scotland, this all looks bad for Ross & Co. They desperately need low turnout to flatter their numbers.
What covid will probably do is generate a particularly negative feeling towards Boris & Co over partygate. People are still very angry, and hurt, about it and when that part of the story is brought back to the surface, as it will be by the Opposition and the boys at Led by Donkeys, it is going to have a powerful emotional impact. I am certain that this will undo every attempt Boris makes to claim he got all the big decisions right. In fact, the more he says that, the more voters will be reminded of what happened. Partygate has undone any tory success on vaccines.
But you are right anyway, neither covid nor Ukraine will be uppermost (unless Putin invades elsewhere).
I have never known this country so unhappy.
Therefore, NATO are the enemy.
Activists are like that. Certain things are inviolate, facts must be fitted to that mindset.
I think Bojo is a very poor PM, but he occasionally does something right. He selected the right woman to organise the vaccine roll-out, and he has the right instincts over Ukraine. I think Starmer's heart is in the right place, but he over-thinks. "What's a woman?" Say what you think. Go with the biology. A Y chromosome? Extremely rare exceptions. A dick? Not in my experience. There, that wasn't so hard, was it.
My head tells me that Stuart is right: the cost of living crisis, decline in living standards and general feeling of malaise are a terrible recipe for the Conservatives. Boris Johnson may try to use his super-ego to talk up the nation but, as Canute found, you can't halt the tide.
This is the terrible mistake the tories made in 1992-7. John Major thought his back to basics, which is the same table thumping for the Mail readers, would win back the core support.
Actually people didn't give a fuck.
Giving VVP something he can market as a win (probably the Donetsk/Luhansk oblasts and a land bridge to Crimea) is the only way this ends short of the extremely unlikely Kremlin palace coup. The alternative is the total and probably permanent destruction of Ukraine.
Sex is not complex, it is made complex by some. Evolutionary-wise, it has a purpose. Gender has none. DNA replication is not 100% perfect because to make it so would be a massive drain on the body's resources, and not compatible with normal life. However, it is as near perfect as it needs to be.
Human judgement, by comparison is shite.
It has the benefit of being true.
Public reaction to the Ukraine crisis is in danger of moving in unpredictable ways. The fervour is unlikely to last and alternative views are going to start appearing. This has nothing to do with rights or wrongs it's just the way public opinion works.
'Things sweet prove in digestion sour'
https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1512491275630559244
Which is why Russia needs to be seen to lose this war. If they get a 'win' in Ukraine, however modest, they will be looking at more. They are an evil, fascist and imperialist regime, and a direct threat to world peace.
The poll yesterday I think might be indicative of feelings was in the Observer; it says that young (under 35) adults think that 'donors to political parties and big businesses are now ..... the main drivers of government policy.'
Even among older people the split as to whether the system is working well is no better than evens.
I have to admit that there's little comparison with the past..... was it always thus?
That's a big opportunity for some sort of anti-democrat.
The Ukranians will fight and the west will arm and fund them. Not least because the destruction of Russian conventional combat capability prevents a real threat to Poland, the Baltics and Scandinavia.
Raiding supply lines is more of a problem in the open country of the south compared to the forests of the north, but on the other hand makes for a target rich environment for the switchblade drone systems. Will the Russians fight as doggedly for Kherson as the Ukranians did at Hostomel? I think not.
This war could end with the total capitulation of Ukraine and it being made a Russian vassal state; regime change in Russia; use of NBC weapons by Russia, a lengthy stalemate over current lines, an orderly Russian withdrawal, a Ukrainian rout of Russian forces, or many more.
But given the lacklustre performance by Russian troops so far, I doubt it will end up with Russia taking Kiev by conventional means. The question is how quickly Russia can generate troops and train them to a better standard - given that such training may be somewhat counter to their military culture.
It is perfectly feasible that the Russian military may collapse, especially if they do not get foreign help.
And do they have those large numbers any more? Do the demographics suit Russia, as they once did? And is there the political will to go for a vast call-up of the population? Do they have the equipment to equip those troops properly?
Too soon/ About Right / Not soon enough (net "Too Soon")
18-24: 31 / 36 / 17 (-19)
25-49: 38 / 36 / 15 (-13)
50-65: 48 / 31 / 13 (+4)
65+: 56 / 32 / 8 (+16)
I suppose the hypothesis is "Pensioners will start voting Labour because of COVID restrictions lifted two years earlier". Hmmmmm......
I’m sure they didn’t in Syria or Chechnya.. Afghanistan? I thought the numbers there were similar to Ukraine so far, but over years. And they lost there and some say it led to the fall of the USSR.
So do we go back 80 odd years to WW2. Which was beating the Nazis. I wouldn’t say they “pointlessly” died then.
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1512970382294364164
Good thread this. He lays out why Russia are unlikely to win new ground and the steps needed on the Ukrainian side to precipitate a Russian military collapse.
https://twitter.com/threshedthought/status/1512787305416769536?s=21
Conclusion:
“This is phase two of the war. It will take about a month to play out - so by ‘victory’ day parade in Moscow.
But it may not turn out how the Russians think. The momentum is with the Ukrainians. I think they’ll kick the Russians out.
But they’ll lose 100k civilians doing it.”
https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1512915118660546560
"We assess that the Russian military will struggle to amass a large and combat-capable force of mechanized units to operate in Donbas within the next few months. Russia will likely continue to throw badly damaged and partially reconstituted units piecemeal into offensive operations that make limited gains at great cost.[1] The Russians likely will make gains nevertheless and may either trap or wear down Ukrainian forces enough to secure much of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts, but it is at least equally likely that these Russian offensives will culminate before reaching their objectives, as similar Russian operations have done."
https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-9
Reading that entire report, it seems that Russia is very much on the back foot.
""denazification" in official Russian usage just means the destruction of the Ukrainian state and nation. A "Nazi," as the genocide manual explains, is simply a human being who self-identifies as Ukrainian."
https://t.co/ZZTJqpSTdJ
This is because the dataset Amazon used to train the tool was... Amazon's past hiring decisions - which were sexist and biased against women.
AI tools are slaves to their datasets. Put a biased data set in snd you will get biased decisions out.
And just a reminder, you heaped ridicule on the numbers of "kills" the Ukrainians were claiming. They now appear to be verified as ball-park correct. If anyone is grinding out a grisly marginal win, it currently looks to be Ukraine.
F1: post-race ramble:
https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2022/04/australia-post-race-analysis-2022.html
However, very often they died because of the callousness and incompetence of their generals, who hurled enormous numbers of men at defended positions on the calculation that some at least would survive and get through. A little like Grant's calculation in 1864, but on a scale of millions. The German army could have been overwhelmed at far lower cost with a little more planning and care.
The irony is that the British WWI generals so beloved of Marxist historiography (and, oddly, Alan Clark) in the 1960s were actually largely a myth, but that myth could easily have been applied to the Soviet generals of World War Two with perfect accuracy.
Zhukov in particular could have been a model for Pratchett's analysis of Ronnie Rust's generalship: 'military doctrine states the key principle of any battle is there should be massive casualties. If they were on the other side, this was regarded as a valuable bonus.'
So arguably, many of their deaths were pointless.
Sky report this morning should make us proud for once of Boris's visit to Ukraine and our role in their defence
I understand why some have such a viserreal dislike of Boris, but for today anyway I believe he has been a credit to our country
2/10. Try harder.
https://www.technologyreview.com/2019/01/21/137783/algorithms-criminal-justice-ai/
There is now a clear parliamentary majority for NATO membership: Moderates, Sweden Democrats, Centre Party, Christian Democrats and Liberals.
The minority governing Social Democrats are sceptical to NATO membership.
Only the Left Party and Greens solidly against.
Joining NATO without broad national consensus would be very un-Swedish, so all eyes are now on Magdalena Andersson.
It is a sorry spectacle to see some determined to undermine the UK
I knew he'd be bad, but the debasement of public life he's led to is far beyond anything I thought possible.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/apr/10/young-adults-loss-of-faith-in-uk-democracy-survey
It would be understandable if the conservatives had plummeted to the low 30s but I suspect the combination of a general acceptance that covid and war in Ukraine are at the heart of the cost of living crisis and Starmer's lack of real inspiration
Rishi's self inflicted political suicide has been astonishing and I expect he will shortly be gone, maybe out of UK politics returning to the US
Fantasy maybe but what odds of Rishi going into US politics where wealth is not a negative factor
And as for what those who oppose Johnson should do in that case, the same as all defeated democrats.
Be sad for a bit. Go away and think for a bit. Then work to overturn that defeat at the next opportunity.
Because that's the brilliant thing about democracy. The opportunity for a country to change its mind.
It is the ending of testing and epidemiological surveillance at the highest point of infections that concerns me. Also the absence of any plan to manage covid going forward in terms of passive measures, such as ventilation, air filters, sick pay, NHS surge capacity etc.
OK
Hats off to BigDog for going to Kyiv (although he is not the first- your hated nemesis UVDL was there the day before) and showing British solidarity with the Ukrainian people. As the Ukrainian Government tweeted, he was very "brave", but in my book, no braver than a hatful of other European leaders who have made the same journey. If he had been holed up in the bunker with Zelenskiy marshaling Ukrainian troops during the siege of Kyiv, now that would be brave.
Cynicism for Johnson's motives, even when he does the right thing is not being anti-British. It is a healthy skepticism for a man who has self-indulgent form in pretty much anything he does.
Overall, this is not a bad poll for the government. Broadly, 47% are on the government's side on this issue, and 44% oppose it.
"NEW: Russia is sending an 8-mi long convoy of 100s of vehicles, including armored vehicles and artillery southbound through the Ukrainian town of Velykyi Burluk.
The convoy is moving about 60 mi east of Ukraine’s 2nd-largest city of Kharkiv, as 🇷🇺 focuses on Donbas."
https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1513022241067446272
I don't dispute your right in principle to comment on UK politics from abroad, but when you descend to petty point scoring about electoral outcomes which have no effect on you personally - about 85% of your output - I'm afraid I think Yeah, right: eunuch in a brothel. And on here because your Spanish is not up to any kind of discussion.
I understand it is about not wanting to get dragged in to NATO wars of aggression.
I can see why Sweden might think... no point, not if Finland are in NATO... no realistic way for Russia to attack Sweden, we can have the security without the commitment.
What else... ?
The Finnish policy towards Russia was very clever, and worked for about 75 years.
It is Putin who made it impossible. He could have tried to court Finland rather than continually threatening it.
Had Russia made overtures of friendship towards Finland, and just generally been a lot more careful about its foreign adventures... it would just not be in this position now, and could have had a foot in the EU.
It is now in the position of trying to threaten Finland with 'unimaginable consequences' but he is not taken seriously, as his war in Ukraine has blunted Russian military capabilities, and revealed them to be poor.
He comes across as an impotent old man.
Ukraine 2022 ... feels like an own goal of Putin's making, a catastrophic misjudgement, on the level of Vietnam and Iraq.
https://twitter.com/Davewwest/status/1509863824194785302?t=lo1TJhGCKlc-gbIrZVXzeQ&s=19
The problems steam trains in the UK have cos they relied on coal imports. Didn't @JosiasJessop or @SandyRentool raise this the other day?
The significance of yesterday's visit, as has been commented on, is that Boris is the first G7 leader to visit and the first of the big four, of UK - US - France and Germany
Anyway this is politics and of course some cannot give credit where it s due