Le Pen winning the first round wouldn’t be a shock as she could benefit from Zemmour transfers . The media will of course go into overdrive but the more interesting result will be the combined votes of Le Pen and Zemmour .
Which do you choose? Just abstaining or spoiling your ballot is leaving this invidious choice to others, which is somewhat lame
I genuinely think that is an impossible choice. Biden was self evidently useless but not insanely dangerous like his opponent. So Biden was an easy choice for all his faults. Both of these people are odious to an extreme but it is very hard to say who is worse. I would probably go Le Pen but I don't believe a word of her supposed new centrism.
How is Melenchon dangerous exactly? At worst he'd turn out like Hollande and I can see him getting on well with Scholz despite differences on NATO.
He wants France to withdraw from NATO and broadly become pacifist. He claimed that Venezuela had a free election. He called the US and Iran equally responsible. He supported Putin's murderous campaign in Syria. He has come dangerously near to anti-Semitism.
For me, that makes him dangerous. But I would say the same about Le Pen. I really don't like Macron but I would obviously for him in preference to either of these.
Melenchon is the French Corbyn, even more left than Hollande was
Le Pen is the French Farage crosses with Nick Griffin, even if she has moderated her views a bit.
Macron is the French Nick Clegg.
That is French voters' choice today
Rubbish. You are just not listening HY. You can’t read it so neatly across from French to UK like that is the truth you are missing - just like oysters and snails are two different things.
Rishi is doing my head in. First it was a "smear". Except it was true, so it can't be. Now it is rage at the leaker. If was all above board it couldn't be leaked. Whoever it was did us all a favour. Poor, harassed billionaire. At least nobody is buying his whining. Not even the Daily Mail comments.
Which do you choose? Just abstaining or spoiling your ballot is leaving this invidious choice to others, which is somewhat lame
I genuinely think that is an impossible choice. Biden was self evidently useless but not insanely dangerous like his opponent. So Biden was an easy choice for all his faults. Both of these people are odious to an extreme but it is very hard to say who is worse. I would probably go Le Pen but I don't believe a word of her supposed new centrism.
How is Melenchon dangerous exactly? At worst he'd turn out like Hollande and I can see him getting on well with Scholz despite differences on NATO.
He wants France to withdraw from NATO and broadly become pacifist. He claimed that Venezuela had a free election. He called the US and Iran equally responsible. He supported Putin's murderous campaign in Syria. He has come dangerously near to anti-Semitism.
For me, that makes him dangerous. But I would say the same about Le Pen. I really don't like Macron but I would obviously for him in preference to either of these.
Melenchon is the French Corbyn, even more left than Hollande was
Le Pen is the French Farage crosses with Nick Griffin, even if she has moderated her views a bit.
Macron is the French Nick Clegg.
That is French voters' choice today
Rubbish. You are just not listening HY. You can’t read it so neatly across from French to UK like that is the truth you are missing - just like oysters and snails are two different things.
You can, based on their policies and ideology make a UK equivalent. Even if not exact
Rishi is doing my head in. First it was a "smear". Except it was true, so it can't be. Now it is rage at the leaker. If was all above board it couldn't be leaked. Whoever it was did us all a favour. Poor, harassed billionaire. At least nobody is buying his whining. Not even the Daily Mail comments.
Radio 4 trailer for 1pm news sounding very excited about possible upset in France
Well, exciting elections are more interesting, we yearn for them every time but are rarely given them.
I liked the comment someone made the other day that it might actually be better for Le Pen not to top the first round, as then people really might worry she would win and so help consolidate opposition to her better. I don't really buy that, I think her prospects are pretty locked in regardless, but it'd be good spin.
It's not a ridiculous view.
Macron's support is shallow. Lots of people don't really like him, and would rather not vote for him.
And if they think that he'll win anyway, they will probably be minded to stay home.
Poor turnout in Paris will have the Macron camp worried .
Across the rest of France it’s a mixed bag with some Macron strongholds in the sw having good turnout . In the se some good signs for Le Pen with turnout holding up well mostly but also some notable large drops in areas that she she would be expected to do very well in . Notably Les Bouches de Rhône turnout is low compared to 2017 down nearly ten points at Midday .
What's the weather like. I know I could look, but lunch is ready, there's a glass of a nice Sicilian red waiting for me.
Black pudding and egg sandwich and some hipster pale ale for me ...
Local beef and simply enormous Yorkshires at the local pub after a walk for me.
With our friend down from Kent, whose father was in the White Rose resistance in Berlin with Sophie Scholl but he managed to escape to Canada. Our friend was in LA in the sixties, one of her best friends was killed by the Manson family. She was very close to Jim Morrison (took a lot of effort to keep her virginity from him!), managed The Doors for a while after his death. She was a Vogue cover girl and is still a working model in her 70's.
(And none of that is the most interesting things about her!)
Wonderful red mullet plus local wine plus this superb Izmir version of Greek salad: with Turkish cheese and dill (so goes brilliantly with fish)
After moaning about Turkish food all week, on my very last day I have once of the nicest lunches I can remember in years
All gone now
Red mullet is such a fine fish.
And best to have your finest meal on the last day, rather than the first.
Absolutely, I am now glowing with contentment (and wine)
So after all that whining from me I absolutely love Izmir. The genius of it is that it is, initially, so ugly no one comes here
Which makes it brilliantly authentic. Zero tourists. I don’t believe even Turkish tourists come here
Yet it is ancient Smyrna and one of the great cities of the Mediterranean, and if you dig a bit you can find all that. And the old quarter is magnificently real and vivid. And all of it set on a glorious bay, with Ephesus and Pergamon and some fabulous beaches just a day trip away
Which do you choose? Just abstaining or spoiling your ballot is leaving this invidious choice to others, which is somewhat lame
I genuinely think that is an impossible choice. Biden was self evidently useless but not insanely dangerous like his opponent. So Biden was an easy choice for all his faults. Both of these people are odious to an extreme but it is very hard to say who is worse. I would probably go Le Pen but I don't believe a word of her supposed new centrism.
How is Melenchon dangerous exactly? At worst he'd turn out like Hollande and I can see him getting on well with Scholz despite differences on NATO.
He wants France to withdraw from NATO and broadly become pacifist. He claimed that Venezuela had a free election. He called the US and Iran equally responsible. He supported Putin's murderous campaign in Syria. He has come dangerously near to anti-Semitism.
For me, that makes him dangerous. But I would say the same about Le Pen. I really don't like Macron but I would obviously for him in preference to either of these.
Melenchon is the French Corbyn, even more left than Hollande was
Le Pen is the French Farage crosses with Nick Griffin, even if she has moderated her views a bit.
Macron is the French Nick Clegg.
That is French voters' choice today
Rubbish. You are just not listening HY. You can’t read it so neatly across from French to UK like that is the truth you are missing - just like oysters and snails are two different things.
You can, based on their policies and ideology make a UK equivalent. Even if not exact
In the UK I don’t think we are born into a political tribe so much later as other countries, where it’s apparatus of the state against you if you lose. So In UK, due to our freedoms and liberalism as a country, we can now be born into our political tribes later in life, not at birth. Everything I have said In this thread I think is recognising the difference between countries and saying vive our difference.
Complete opposite thing from the Leon’s “forced choice” micro thread I would call (dread word we used to totally damn at art college) passé
Poor turnout in Paris will have the Macron camp worried .
Across the rest of France it’s a mixed bag with some Macron strongholds in the sw having good turnout . In the se some good signs for Le Pen with turnout holding up well mostly but also some notable large drops in areas that she she would be expected to do very well in . Notably Les Bouches de Rhône turnout is low compared to 2017 down nearly ten points at Midday .
What's the weather like. I know I could look, but lunch is ready, there's a glass of a nice Sicilian red waiting for me.
Black pudding and egg sandwich and some hipster pale ale for me ...
Local beef and simply enormous Yorkshires at the local pub after a walk for me.
With our friend down from Kent, whose father was in the White Rose resistance in Berlin with Sophie Scholl but he managed to escape to Canada. Our friend was in LA in the sixties, one of her best friends was killed by the Manson family. She was very close to Jim Morrison (took a lot of effort to keep her virginity from him!), managed The Doors for a while after his death. She was a Vogue cover girl and is still a working model in her 70's.
(And none of that is the most interesting things about her!)
Wonderful red mullet plus local wine plus this superb Izmir version of Greek salad: with Turkish cheese and dill (so goes brilliantly with fish)
After moaning about Turkish food all week, on my very last day I have once of the nicest lunches I can remember in years
All gone now
Red mullet is such a fine fish.
And best to have your finest meal on the last day, rather than the first.
Absolutely, I am now glowing with contentment (and wine)
So after all that whining from me I absolutely love Izmir. The genius of it is that it is, initially, so ugly no one comes here
Which makes it brilliantly authentic. Zero tourists. I don’t believe even Turkish tourists come here
Yet it is ancient Smyrna and one of the great cities of the Mediterranean, and if you dig a bit you can find all that. And the old quarter is magnificently real and vivid. And all of it set on a glorious bay, with Ephesus and Pergamon and some fabulous beaches just a day trip away
Also, bloody cheap
Sounds like you should write up your experience for a newspaper or magazine travel section. ;-)
Poor turnout in Paris will have the Macron camp worried .
Across the rest of France it’s a mixed bag with some Macron strongholds in the sw having good turnout . In the se some good signs for Le Pen with turnout holding up well mostly but also some notable large drops in areas that she she would be expected to do very well in . Notably Les Bouches de Rhône turnout is low compared to 2017 down nearly ten points at Midday .
What's the weather like. I know I could look, but lunch is ready, there's a glass of a nice Sicilian red waiting for me.
Black pudding and egg sandwich and some hipster pale ale for me ...
Local beef and simply enormous Yorkshires at the local pub after a walk for me.
With our friend down from Kent, whose father was in the White Rose resistance in Berlin with Sophie Scholl but he managed to escape to Canada. Our friend was in LA in the sixties, one of her best friends was killed by the Manson family. She was very close to Jim Morrison (took a lot of effort to keep her virginity from him!), managed The Doors for a while after his death. She was a Vogue cover girl and is still a working model in her 70's.
(And none of that is the most interesting things about her!)
Wonderful red mullet plus local wine plus this superb Izmir version of Greek salad: with Turkish cheese and dill (so goes brilliantly with fish)
After moaning about Turkish food all week, on my very last day I have once of the nicest lunches I can remember in years
All gone now
Lol - looks like a a scene from Top Cat!
Fresh and grilled red mullet is a gift from God. Possibly my favourite fish - and I love fish
And when it is eaten in the Aegean sun with a crisp cold local white….
It’ll be interesting to see my bill. That was a genuinely superb meal. Everything was exactly right, down to the delicious olives, the cracked sea salt, the fresh baked crusty rustic bread. Simple Perfection
Yes I agree, last month I had red mullet in Saranda on the Ionian coast. Think the bill was less than a tenner.
Read this interview with Karaganov (reliable bellwether of 🇷🇺ruling elite majority consensus).
If afterwards you still harbor any illusions about sustainable negotiated settlement with Putin's Kremlin on European security order read it again. And again.
As he says, war with West looks more inevitable as each day goes by.
Hope to God he is wrong.
Indeed. Anyone with eyes and honest evidence knows that war with the West is not just unwinnable for Russia, but could only end in rout for them, unless:
1. The Putinists are very confident that they can mobilize 5th columns to great effect, or they can bring in China on their side (no other ally would make a significant difference), OR 2. It goes nuclear.
The danger is he mentions continued NATO military supplies to Ukraine could see a Russian hit on the line of communication. That is where the danger would be
Putin doesn't have "honest evidence" provided to him. They all lie as they are scared of his reaction. This is one of the big dangers.
Agree with TSE. I'm one of the majority who believe restrictions were lifted too soon. In fact I think we've gone crackers on this. But then, we didn't bring in restrictions fast enough either. The NHS is on its knees right now and so are other industries. As a friend of mine comments, 'the country has gone to the dogs.' Not a reference to Big Dog.
And now of course without free LFT's we've no knowledge of the real figures, which just perpetuates the fear. Johnson is an f-ing idiot.
Speaking of which, he must be cross not to command the front pages. I'm surprised. Only The Observer and Express lead with his photo op trip to Ukraine.
On the visit by the PM to Kyiv and the support for Ukraine, it seems to me that the problem for some people is that the narrative was wrong.
France and Germany should have been right and the UK Government should have been wrong.
In the event, the UK government policy has proven to be right and the original policies of France and Germany to be wrong.
To repeat a favourite quote - when Foch was asked if he was responsible for the Victory on the Marne, in WWI, he paused and replied that he was quite certain that he would have been blamed for the defeat.
Delusion, people know that UK was the laundry for Russia and its crooks, doubtful if France and Germany got anywhere near them for sucking up Russian cash. At least France and Germany were paying for goods not taking backhanders.
Paying for goods to the current Russian government is *giving* backhanders.
That's how Putinism works - the Thieves By Statute get to steal 10-20% off the top of every deal. Putin gets a cut.
In addition, a number of European politicians were quite openly receiving "consultancy" jobs etc from Russia state enterprising. Schroeder was simply the most shameless.
The Nord Stream 2 project was all about being able to sell gas to Western Europe, while being able to cut off Eastern Europe at whim. It was quite explicitly selling Eastern Europe (including Ukraine) to Russia.
You got 4 likes, but your post isn't entirely accurate: Germany gets essentially no gas from the old trans Ukraine pipeline. That pipeline is almost entirely supplying Eastern Europe and (the biggest purchaser by far) Italy.
Poor turnout in Paris will have the Macron camp worried .
Across the rest of France it’s a mixed bag with some Macron strongholds in the sw having good turnout . In the se some good signs for Le Pen with turnout holding up well mostly but also some notable large drops in areas that she she would be expected to do very well in . Notably Les Bouches de Rhône turnout is low compared to 2017 down nearly ten points at Midday .
What's the weather like. I know I could look, but lunch is ready, there's a glass of a nice Sicilian red waiting for me.
The weather is very good across France so that shouldn’t effect turnout . The Paris figures are poor for Macron but there are also some poor showings for Le Pen favouring areas .
Also Ramadan could be effecting things in Paris so the pattern of when more people might turnout might change during the day .
I can't see that Ramadan will make any difference. It is not Friday and not Eid so basically it is a normal day, sans manger. Voting ends at 8pm which is before sunset so that is not a factor either.
Presumably this is bad for Macron and Melenchon (and good for Le Pen)?
IMAGINE THE HILARITY if Macron does not make the last two
Who would PB-ers vote for in a Melenchon v Le Pen run off?
That’s really tricky. If it wasn’t for Putin I’d go for Le Pen, but Putin is there, and her victory would encourage and galvanize him: yuk
But as far as I can see Melenchon is as mad as Corbyn, and possibly more dangerous, and it is arguable that a Melenchon victory would please Putin even more, as Melenchon is even less keen on NATO than Le Pen, plus Melenchon would fuck the economy
So I’d go for Le Pen, I guess
What would others do?
Melenchon would be worse so I'd have to vote Le Pen.
Poor turnout in Paris will have the Macron camp worried .
Across the rest of France it’s a mixed bag with some Macron strongholds in the sw having good turnout . In the se some good signs for Le Pen with turnout holding up well mostly but also some notable large drops in areas that she she would be expected to do very well in . Notably Les Bouches de Rhône turnout is low compared to 2017 down nearly ten points at Midday .
What's the weather like. I know I could look, but lunch is ready, there's a glass of a nice Sicilian red waiting for me.
Black pudding and egg sandwich and some hipster pale ale for me ...
Local beef and simply enormous Yorkshires at the local pub after a walk for me.
With our friend down from Kent, whose father was in the White Rose resistance in Berlin with Sophie Scholl but he managed to escape to Canada. Our friend was in LA in the sixties, one of her best friends was killed by the Manson family. She was very close to Jim Morrison (took a lot of effort to keep her virginity from him!), managed The Doors for a while after his death. She was a Vogue cover girl and is still a working model in her 70's.
(And none of that is the most interesting things about her!)
Come on don't tease. Since none of us know her you could share 'some of the most interesting things' about her. Given the things you have mentioned, they must be pretty amazing!
Which do you choose? Just abstaining or spoiling your ballot is leaving this invidious choice to others, which is somewhat lame
I genuinely think that is an impossible choice. Biden was self evidently useless but not insanely dangerous like his opponent. So Biden was an easy choice for all his faults. Both of these people are odious to an extreme but it is very hard to say who is worse. I would probably go Le Pen but I don't believe a word of her supposed new centrism.
How is Melenchon dangerous exactly? At worst he'd turn out like Hollande and I can see him getting on well with Scholz despite differences on NATO.
He wants France to withdraw from NATO and broadly become pacifist. He claimed that Venezuela had a free election. He called the US and Iran equally responsible. He supported Putin's murderous campaign in Syria. He has come dangerously near to anti-Semitism.
For me, that makes him dangerous. But I would say the same about Le Pen. I really don't like Macron but I would obviously for him in preference to either of these.
Melenchon is the French Corbyn, even more left than Hollande was
Le Pen is the French Farage crosses with Nick Griffin, even if she has moderated her views a bit.
Macron is the French Nick Clegg.
That is French voters' choice today
Rubbish. You are just not listening HY. You can’t read it so neatly across from French to UK like that is the truth you are missing - just like oysters and snails are two different things.
You can, based on their policies and ideology make a UK equivalent. Even if not exact
In the UK I don’t think we are born into a political tribe so much later as other countries, where it’s apparatus of the state against you if you lose. So In UK, due to our freedoms and liberalism as a country, we can now be born into our political tribes later in life, not at birth. Everything I have said In this thread I think is recognising the difference between countries and saying vive our difference.
Complete opposite thing from the Leon’s “forced choice” micro thread I would call (dread word we used to totally damn at art college) passé
Fifty years ago, you could say that people were born into political tribes, but everything is a lot more fluid now.
Rishi is doing my head in. First it was a "smear". Except it was true, so it can't be. Now it is rage at the leaker. If was all above board it couldn't be leaked. Whoever it was did us all a favour. Poor, harassed billionaire. At least nobody is buying his whining. Not even the Daily Mail comments.
From a government perspective leaks are even worse if they're true...
Seriously though I've never liked him. I encountered him when he was a junior Treasury minister and he was unctuous in the extreme. He's been the boy wonder so long that he simply can't take the kind of knocks he'd be more than happy to dish out.
The danger is he mentions continued NATO military supplies to Ukraine could see a Russian hit on the line of communication. That is where the danger would be
You can easily see how it could happen. The Russians lob a couple of Iskander-Ms into Rzeszow airport (main hub for weapons into Ukraine) and try to blame it on Ukraine. Poland goes 'full tonto' and starts blowing the fuck out of anything with a Z on it. NATO Article 5 invoked and we're all in.
On the visit by the PM to Kyiv and the support for Ukraine, it seems to me that the problem for some people is that the narrative was wrong.
France and Germany should have been right and the UK Government should have been wrong.
In the event, the UK government policy has proven to be right and the original policies of France and Germany to be wrong.
To repeat a favourite quote - when Foch was asked if he was responsible for the Victory on the Marne, in WWI, he paused and replied that he was quite certain that he would have been blamed for the defeat.
Delusion, people know that UK was the laundry for Russia and its crooks, doubtful if France and Germany got anywhere near them for sucking up Russian cash. At least France and Germany were paying for goods not taking backhanders.
Paying for goods to the current Russian government is *giving* backhanders.
That's how Putinism works - the Thieves By Statute get to steal 10-20% off the top of every deal. Putin gets a cut.
In addition, a number of European politicians were quite openly receiving "consultancy" jobs etc from Russia state enterprising. Schroeder was simply the most shameless.
The Nord Stream 2 project was all about being able to sell gas to Western Europe, while being able to cut off Eastern Europe at whim. It was quite explicitly selling Eastern Europe (including Ukraine) to Russia.
You got 4 likes, but your post isn't entirely accurate: Germany gets essentially no gas from the old trans Ukraine pipeline. That pipeline is almost entirely supplying Eastern Europe and (the biggest purchaser by far) Italy.
Yes - but the purpose of Nord Stream 2 was that Germany would be a big gas hub, and that the supplies to Eastern Europe through the older pipelines could be turned on and off at the Kremlins desire, without effecting Western Europe directly.
The strategic design was blatant - as someone on PB observed, each section of NS2 pipeline should have been stamped "Fuck Ukraine!"
Read this interview with Karaganov (reliable bellwether of 🇷🇺ruling elite majority consensus).
If afterwards you still harbor any illusions about sustainable negotiated settlement with Putin's Kremlin on European security order read it again. And again.
As he says, war with West looks more inevitable as each day goes by.
Hope to God he is wrong.
Indeed. Anyone with eyes and honest evidence knows that war with the West is not just unwinnable for Russia, but could only end in rout for them, unless:
1. The Putinists are very confident that they can mobilize 5th columns to great effect, or they can bring in China on their side (no other ally would make a significant difference), OR 2. It goes nuclear.
Given the shocking state of most Russian military kit, how likely are the Russians not to have skimped on nuclear weapon maintenance?
Read this interview with Karaganov (reliable bellwether of 🇷🇺ruling elite majority consensus).
If afterwards you still harbor any illusions about sustainable negotiated settlement with Putin's Kremlin on European security order read it again. And again.
As he says, war with West looks more inevitable as each day goes by.
Hope to God he is wrong.
Indeed. Anyone with eyes and honest evidence knows that war with the West is not just unwinnable for Russia, but could only end in rout for them, unless:
1. The Putinists are very confident that they can mobilize 5th columns to great effect, or they can bring in China on their side (no other ally would make a significant difference), OR 2. It goes nuclear.
Given the shocking state of most Russian military kit, how likely are the Russians not to have skimped on nuclear weapon maintenance?
I think you made a similar point before and it's a very fair one but not desperately comforting.
Say 90% of their warheads don't work - that still leaves a totally trashed world in the event of them being fired. Especially since the Western retaliation would presumably have to be based on assumption Russian nukes work.
The endorsement Le Pen won’t want in the second round is that of Zemmour . It’s only by his very extreme position has she been as more moderate .
Not kept up with how influential endorsements of losing candidates have been in the past. I don't get the impression that Zemmour is stupid, would he risk blowing up Le Pen by handing her the Z black spot?
On the visit by the PM to Kyiv and the support for Ukraine, it seems to me that the problem for some people is that the narrative was wrong.
France and Germany should have been right and the UK Government should have been wrong.
In the event, the UK government policy has proven to be right and the original policies of France and Germany to be wrong.
To repeat a favourite quote - when Foch was asked if he was responsible for the Victory on the Marne, in WWI, he paused and replied that he was quite certain that he would have been blamed for the defeat.
Delusion, people know that UK was the laundry for Russia and its crooks, doubtful if France and Germany got anywhere near them for sucking up Russian cash. At least France and Germany were paying for goods not taking backhanders.
Paying for goods to the current Russian government is *giving* backhanders.
That's how Putinism works - the Thieves By Statute get to steal 10-20% off the top of every deal. Putin gets a cut.
In addition, a number of European politicians were quite openly receiving "consultancy" jobs etc from Russia state enterprising. Schroeder was simply the most shameless.
The Nord Stream 2 project was all about being able to sell gas to Western Europe, while being able to cut off Eastern Europe at whim. It was quite explicitly selling Eastern Europe (including Ukraine) to Russia.
You got 4 likes, but your post isn't entirely accurate: Germany gets essentially no gas from the old trans Ukraine pipeline. That pipeline is almost entirely supplying Eastern Europe and (the biggest purchaser by far) Italy.
Yes - but the purpose of Nord Stream 2 was that Germany would be a big gas hub, and that the supplies to Eastern Europe through the older pipelines could be turned on and off at the Kremlins desire, without effecting Western Europe directly.
The strategic design was blatant - as someone on PB observed, each section of NS2 pipeline should have been stamped "Fuck Ukraine!"
The plan with Nord Stream 1 was to achieve that, but then North African gas supplies fell sharply, and the Ukrainian pipeline ended up fully used again, albeit not by the people who had previously used it.
Pretty much all of Nord Stream 2's capacity was bought up by German utilities, seeking cheap gas for ccgts.
The Russians had previously floated a Mediterranean gas pipeline, through turkey to Italy to totally remove Ukrainian transmitted gas.
The danger is he mentions continued NATO military supplies to Ukraine could see a Russian hit on the line of communication. That is where the danger would be
You can easily see how it could happen. The Russians lob a couple of Iskander-Ms into Rzeszow airport (main hub for weapons into Ukraine) and try to blame it on Ukraine. Poland goes 'full tonto' and starts blowing the fuck out of anything with a Z on it. NATO Article 5 invoked and we're all in.
Very risky for Putin though as he likely loses a conventional war against NATO. However if he launched a nuclear weapon against a NATO nation then that would be extremely dangerous and risk a NATO nuclear response from his perspective.
The article also suggested the Russians main focus was controlling South East Ukraine rather than going beyond that
On the visit by the PM to Kyiv and the support for Ukraine, it seems to me that the problem for some people is that the narrative was wrong.
France and Germany should have been right and the UK Government should have been wrong.
In the event, the UK government policy has proven to be right and the original policies of France and Germany to be wrong.
To repeat a favourite quote - when Foch was asked if he was responsible for the Victory on the Marne, in WWI, he paused and replied that he was quite certain that he would have been blamed for the defeat.
Delusion, people know that UK was the laundry for Russia and its crooks, doubtful if France and Germany got anywhere near them for sucking up Russian cash. At least France and Germany were paying for goods not taking backhanders.
Paying for goods to the current Russian government is *giving* backhanders.
That's how Putinism works - the Thieves By Statute get to steal 10-20% off the top of every deal. Putin gets a cut.
In addition, a number of European politicians were quite openly receiving "consultancy" jobs etc from Russia state enterprising. Schroeder was simply the most shameless.
The Nord Stream 2 project was all about being able to sell gas to Western Europe, while being able to cut off Eastern Europe at whim. It was quite explicitly selling Eastern Europe (including Ukraine) to Russia.
You got 4 likes, but your post isn't entirely accurate: Germany gets essentially no gas from the old trans Ukraine pipeline. That pipeline is almost entirely supplying Eastern Europe and (the biggest purchaser by far) Italy.
Yes - but the purpose of Nord Stream 2 was that Germany would be a big gas hub, and that the supplies to Eastern Europe through the older pipelines could be turned on and off at the Kremlins desire, without effecting Western Europe directly.
The strategic design was blatant - as someone on PB observed, each section of NS2 pipeline should have been stamped "Fuck Ukraine!"
The plan with Nord Stream 1 was to achieve that, but then North African gas supplies fell sharply, and the Ukrainian pipeline ended up fully used again, albeit not by the people who had previously used it.
Pretty much all of Nord Stream 2's capacity was bought up by German utilities, seeking cheap gas for ccgts.
The Russians had previously floated a Mediterranean gas pipeline, through turkey to Italy to totally remove Ukrainian transmitted gas.
Why hasn't there been more production from Leviathan?
Which do you choose? Just abstaining or spoiling your ballot is leaving this invidious choice to others, which is somewhat lame
I genuinely think that is an impossible choice. Biden was self evidently useless but not insanely dangerous like his opponent. So Biden was an easy choice for all his faults. Both of these people are odious to an extreme but it is very hard to say who is worse. I would probably go Le Pen but I don't believe a word of her supposed new centrism.
How is Melenchon dangerous exactly? At worst he'd turn out like Hollande and I can see him getting on well with Scholz despite differences on NATO.
He wants France to withdraw from NATO and broadly become pacifist. He claimed that Venezuela had a free election. He called the US and Iran equally responsible. He supported Putin's murderous campaign in Syria. He has come dangerously near to anti-Semitism.
For me, that makes him dangerous. But I would say the same about Le Pen. I really don't like Macron but I would obviously for him in preference to either of these.
Melenchon is the French Corbyn, even more left than Hollande was
Le Pen is the French Farage crosses with Nick Griffin, even if she has moderated her views a bit.
Macron is the French Nick Clegg.
That is French voters' choice today
Rubbish. You are just not listening HY. You can’t read it so neatly across from French to UK like that is the truth you are missing - just like oysters and snails are two different things.
You can, based on their policies and ideology make a UK equivalent. Even if not exact
Yes, this pretence that since it is correct you cannot make exact comparisons you cannot make any comparison at all is just fatuous. So long as people are aware they are generalitues there's nothing wrong with it.
Which do you choose? Just abstaining or spoiling your ballot is leaving this invidious choice to others, which is somewhat lame
I genuinely think that is an impossible choice. Biden was self evidently useless but not insanely dangerous like his opponent. So Biden was an easy choice for all his faults. Both of these people are odious to an extreme but it is very hard to say who is worse. I would probably go Le Pen but I don't believe a word of her supposed new centrism.
How is Melenchon dangerous exactly? At worst he'd turn out like Hollande and I can see him getting on well with Scholz despite differences on NATO.
He wants France to withdraw from NATO and broadly become pacifist. He claimed that Venezuela had a free election. He called the US and Iran equally responsible. He supported Putin's murderous campaign in Syria. He has come dangerously near to anti-Semitism.
For me, that makes him dangerous. But I would say the same about Le Pen. I really don't like Macron but I would obviously for him in preference to either of these.
Melenchon is the French Corbyn, even more left than Hollande was
Le Pen is the French Farage crosses with Nick Griffin, even if she has moderated her views a bit.
Macron is the French Nick Clegg.
That is French voters' choice today
Rubbish. You are just not listening HY. You can’t read it so neatly across from French to UK like that is the truth you are missing - just like oysters and snails are two different things.
You can, based on their policies and ideology make a UK equivalent. Even if not exact
Yes, this pretence that since it is correct you cannot make exact comparisons you cannot make any comparison at all is just fatuous. So long as people are aware they are generalitues there's nothing wrong with it.
Have had no phone reception for the last couple of hours which was a little scary. Luckily my phone map continued showing my position and the route most of the way.
I stopped for my pistachio nut and beer lunch by a little river called Rec De Sant Miquel. More San Miguel was flowing than Sant Miquel; I didn’t need the bridge!
On topic, COVID and NHS waiting lists won’t matter one bit.
“Will I and my children/grandchildren be better off under Labour?”
That’s the key question. I have no idea how the politicians will play it and how the public will react.
Grandchildren? That's a laugh when the client state voters put in place a government that repeatedly raise costs and taxes on the young and triple lock in their pensions. +2.5% for national insurance whilst promising to reduce income tax says it all.
I’ve made this point many times, but one of the things that made me think Labour were doing better in 2017 than many expected was what a 60-something in a pub told my dad.
He said “I’ve never voted Labour before, but I don’t want my granddaughters to be lumbered with huge debt from tuition fees.”
Scrapping tuition fees is popular with older voters, even if it doesn’t benefit them directly.
Of course, how you find that is another matter, but it doesn’t really matter. The old aren’t quite as selfish as PB makes them out to be.
So one bloke in a pub might have voted Labour five years ago.
Yet this generation of pensioners will be the richest ever and their grandchildren the first in many to be poorer than their parents. The pensioners think that is because they "worked hard all their lives" and that the young "are lazy and fickle". It is actually because of political choices the pensioners have made about where wealth is distributed in society.
Mrs C and I often think about how we were the 'lucky generation'. Or at least those a bit younger than us were. We were children in wartime and during rationing, which at least meant that our young teeth weren't corrupted with sugary drinks and sweets. We had free higher education, although it was assumed by the authorities that one's parents would pay maintenance (which wasn't always the case) I think those born in the late 40's probably did as well as any; 20 or so in the late 60's. Certainly tougher for our grandchildren.
The main reason it's tougher is because it's difficult to get on the property ladder, and the main reason for that is because the population has increased from 54 million to 68 million over the last 30 years or so. By contrast between roughly 1970 and 1990 it hardly increased at all.
The population increased by 26% but over the same period the stock of housing increased by 27%.
Try again.
The key determinant is not the population but the number of households, which has gone up by 12% since 2001, and is growing faster than the population.
There are more people living alone than ever before, and the fastest-growing household type is multi-generational - adult children living with their parents.
Agree with TSE. I'm one of the majority who believe restrictions were lifted too soon. In fact I think we've gone crackers on this. But then, we didn't bring in restrictions fast enough either. The NHS is on its knees right now and so are other industries. As a friend of mine comments, 'the country has gone to the dogs.' Not a reference to Big Dog.
And now of course without free LFT's we've no knowledge of the real figures, which just perpetuates the fear. Johnson is an f-ing idiot.
Speaking of which, he must be cross not to command the front pages. I'm surprised. Only The Observer and Express lead with his photo op trip to Ukraine.
When everyone knows that Johnson's life is just one giant ego trip even newspapers as crass as the Sun and Mail baulk at being sucked into it
I hope Zelenskyy is aware of the traditional fate of friends of Johnson. Exploited, abandoned and then ignored is the usual trajectory.
A true Brit then!
Remember the old Arab proverb: “it is better to be the enemy of the British than their friend, for they buy their enemies and sell their friends”
Wasn't that a line from Lawrence of Arabia?
It’s mentioned in the Seven Pillars so may have been in the film as well
Read this interview with Karaganov (reliable bellwether of 🇷🇺ruling elite majority consensus).
If afterwards you still harbor any illusions about sustainable negotiated settlement with Putin's Kremlin on European security order read it again. And again.
As he says, war with West looks more inevitable as each day goes by.
Hope to God he is wrong.
Indeed. Anyone with eyes and honest evidence knows that war with the West is not just unwinnable for Russia, but could only end in rout for them, unless:
1. The Putinists are very confident that they can mobilize 5th columns to great effect, or they can bring in China on their side (no other ally would make a significant difference), OR 2. It goes nuclear.
Given the shocking state of most Russian military kit, how likely are the Russians not to have skimped on nuclear weapon maintenance?
If we can shoot down 90% of their missiles and only 10% of their missiles work, how many get through?
Re the non-dom issue, if British citizens like Sajid Javid could be non-domiciled for tax purposes, it would be interesting to know how many of those former Russian citizens who donated to the Tory party were also non-doms.
Comments
First it was a "smear". Except it was true, so it can't be.
Now it is rage at the leaker.
If was all above board it couldn't be leaked. Whoever it was did us all a favour. Poor, harassed billionaire.
At least nobody is buying his whining. Not even the Daily Mail comments.
Macron's support is shallow. Lots of people don't really like him, and would rather not vote for him.
And if they think that he'll win anyway, they will probably be minded to stay home.
So after all that whining from me I absolutely love Izmir. The genius of it is that it is, initially, so ugly no one comes here
Which makes it brilliantly authentic. Zero tourists. I don’t believe even Turkish tourists come here
Yet it is ancient Smyrna and one of the great cities of the Mediterranean, and if you dig a bit you can find all that. And the old quarter is magnificently real and vivid. And all of it set on a glorious bay, with Ephesus and Pergamon and some fabulous beaches just a day trip away
Also, bloody cheap
Complete opposite thing from the Leon’s “forced choice” micro thread I would call (dread word we used to totally damn at art college) passé
This is like a Le Pen victory of the palate. A total Revolution
Seriously though I've never liked him. I encountered him when he was a junior Treasury minister and he was unctuous in the extreme. He's been the boy wonder so long that he simply can't take the kind of knocks he'd be more than happy to dish out.
Melenchon for me just in case flabbers aren’t gasted enough.
The strategic design was blatant - as someone on PB observed, each section of NS2 pipeline should have been stamped "Fuck Ukraine!"
I don't know why you bother pussy-footing around it.
However it has collapsed in Paris to just 15% by lunchtime
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1513102761021349892?s=20&t=YOSSHY7RpF1dyOPL-fO2uQ
NEW THREAD
Say 90% of their warheads don't work - that still leaves a totally trashed world in the event of them being fired. Especially since the Western retaliation would presumably have to be based on assumption Russian nukes work.
I don't get the impression that Zemmour is stupid, would he risk blowing up Le Pen by handing her the Z black spot?
Pretty much all of Nord Stream 2's capacity was bought up by German utilities, seeking cheap gas for ccgts.
The Russians had previously floated a Mediterranean gas pipeline, through turkey to Italy to totally remove Ukrainian transmitted gas.
The article also suggested the Russians main focus was controlling South East Ukraine rather than going beyond that
I stopped for my pistachio nut and beer lunch by a little river called Rec De Sant Miquel. More San Miguel was flowing than Sant Miquel; I didn’t need the bridge!
There are more people living alone than ever before, and the fastest-growing household type is multi-generational - adult children living with their parents.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/bulletins/householdprojectionsforengland/2018based