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Known unknowns – politicalbetting.com

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    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 7,082
    Dura_Ace said:

    Roger said:

    Heathener said:

    Agree with TSE. I'm one of the majority who believe restrictions were lifted too soon. In fact I think we've gone crackers on this. But then, we didn't bring in restrictions fast enough either. The NHS is on its knees right now and so are other industries. As a friend of mine comments, 'the country has gone to the dogs.' Not a reference to Big Dog.

    And now of course without free LFT's we've no knowledge of the real figures, which just perpetuates the fear. Johnson is an f-ing idiot.

    Speaking of which, he must be cross not to command the front pages. I'm surprised. Only The Observer and Express lead with his photo op trip to Ukraine.

    When everyone knows that Johnson's life is just one giant ego trip even newspapers as crass as the Sun and Mail baulk at being sucked into it
    I hope Zelenskyy is aware of the traditional fate of friends of Johnson. Exploited, abandoned and then ignored is the usual trajectory.
    A true Brit then!

    Remember the old Arab proverb: “it is better to be the enemy of the British than their friend, for they buy their enemies and sell their friends”
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    MattWMattW Posts: 18,701
    edited April 2022

    I don' want to upset dear Roger, but the following tweet is interesting:

    "NEW: Russia is sending an 8-mi long convoy of 100s of vehicles, including armored vehicles and artillery southbound through the Ukrainian town of Velykyi Burluk.

    The convoy is moving about 60 mi east of Ukraine’s 2nd-largest city of Kharkiv, as 🇷🇺 focuses on Donbas."

    https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1513022241067446272

    Hmmm. That's within the strike radius of a Bayraktar 2, ground control allowing.

    Though reports have been that Russia has upped its convoy protection game for several weeks now.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,131
    As France goes to the polls today in the first round of the presidential election, Scott Morrison calls the Australian Federal election for May 21st

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-61055915.amp
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    LeonLeon Posts: 47,474
    kle4 said:

    I think StuartDickson is right about sense of general malaise being key. Hard to quantify, but vital.

    The malaise is not exactly restricted to the UK
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,371

    Scottish Labour have been very shrewd in how they have played things.

    Sentences you never thought you would read.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,994

    Roger said:

    Heathener said:

    Agree with TSE. I'm one of the majority who believe restrictions were lifted too soon. In fact I think we've gone crackers on this. But then, we didn't bring in restrictions fast enough either. The NHS is on its knees right now and so are other industries. As a friend of mine comments, 'the country has gone to the dogs.' Not a reference to Big Dog.

    And now of course without free LFT's we've no knowledge of the real figures, which just perpetuates the fear. Johnson is an f-ing idiot.

    Speaking of which, he must be cross not to command the front pages. I'm surprised. Only The Observer and Express lead with his photo op trip to Ukraine.

    When everyone knows that Johnson's life is just one giant ego trip even newspapers as crass as the Sun and Mail baulk at being sucked into it
    What on earth are you going to do when he wins GE24
    At least he’ll have the comfort of knowing he didn’t vote for him. The self justifying reasons of those who did will be quite the sight.

    My estimate of top 5:

    Vaccines
    We can’t trust the party of Corbyn
    The sanctity of M&S changing rooms
    Ukraine
    BJ may be a FLSOJ but he likes a laff
    I think it is important in these things to separate the individual actions of politicians under extreme circumstances or specific situations from their general suitability to lead the country and make day to day decisions. As others have already said Johnson has made some very good calls and has dealt with both Covid and Ukraine in a reasonable manner - better with Ukraine than Covid. But then to compare him with his hero Churchill, he was also good at the big calls under extreme circumstances - notably of course his leadership in WW2. But he was also a pretty rubbish day to day politician with a lot of bad ideas and a lot of fundamentally bad views and a Tin Ear which made him unsuited for he top jobs outside of wartime. Hence the very reasonable decision to dump him in 1945.

    No matter how well Johnson did or does on Covid and Ukraine (and on Covid his very good calls were balanced by some very bad ones) he is still, in my view fundamentally unsuited to high office and I will gratefully pat him on the back for the things he did right and pack him off to the talk circuit as soon as humanly possible.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,787
    edited April 2022
    Interesting thread:

    What one picture might be able to tell us about the upcoming Russian attempt to 'fix' the Donbas. This was tweeted by @JackDetsch this morning and its fascinating for showing a few things about this war and how its developing.

    https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1513047743912202246
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,792

    Nigelb said:

    PBers have been completely inaccurate re sanctions and the impact on Russian ability to fight the war.

    "Will not be able to continue beyond the end of the month at the longest" was the common view in mid March

    Was it ?
    I think it’s regularly been remarked that oil revenues insulate Putin’s decision making from what are nevertheless severe economic effects of sanctions.

    Sanctions will continue to degrade Russian ability to replace losses, but they have a huge amount of kit, however obsolete, and can sustain lower level operations for some time - hence the consolidation in the south and east.
    I haven't heard anything about a shortage of Russian artillery shells, for example.

    That is one possible outcome - a territorial stalemate, with Russian continuing to inflict masses amounts of damage with artillery, compelling Ukraine to accept a ceasefire with a further loss of territory and population.

    That said, I think it's possible that we are underestimating the ability of the Ukrainians to launch a counter-offensive. They do have some armour already, and if they can keep it safe with improved air defence, knock out another few hundred Russian tanks with NLAWs et al, and make some progress with counter-battery fire, then I think there would be an opportunity.
    I wouldn’t attempt to predict outcomes.
    I’d just note that Ukraine isn’t going to accept the occupation of more territory after they’ve seen what Russia does to their citizens. As before the invasion, the decision to fight is theirs, not ours.
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,252
    Sandpit said:

    kle4 said:

    I think StuartDickson is right about sense of general malaise being key. Hard to quantify, but vital.

    The issue they have is the same as the Remoaners, they appear to be cheering a little bit too much for the malaise.
    Would you make the same connection between the turd polishers of Brexit and and those that believe COVID is behind us?

    Glad to see ‘Remoaners’ is still with us btw.
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    MattWMattW Posts: 18,701

    I’ve stocked up with beer and am on my way again (JJ, were any of your 120 mile weeks hydrated solely with beer?).

    I’m headed for the French border today. Whether I cross it will depend on the time and my tiredness when I get to Portbou (I haven’t booked tonight’s room yet). I could have taken a short route along the coast, but that would have meant walking on a busy road’s hard shoulder, so I’ve for the five mile longer “scenic” route..

    It looks like I’ve got some more climbing to do!

    For your comfort and if I have my geography right, JJs 120 mile weeks were in Leicestershire, which is essentially flat.

    (Some people from Leicestershire insist that this allegation is not true. :smile: )
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    Gary_BurtonGary_Burton Posts: 737

    Scottish Labour have been very shrewd in how they have played things.

    I need to look at the seats again but surely they could pickup 7 or so seats at a GE.

    Every seat makes it easier for Starmer to ignore the SNP. I think the magic number for him is 300 seats or more.

    Remains to be seen I think, the SNP is still in a very strong position especially with younger voters and was still on 45% in the latest Westminster poll even though Labour was back to their 2017 result of 27%. East Lothian (which is represented by an ALBA defector) looks like the only gain I would be confident about. Scottish Labour really needs to come 2nd in council seats and do well in Glasgow in particular to change the narrative.

    Having said that I'm dubious about the SNP having much influence in a hung parliament as there have been repeated predictions of this since 2010 which have not materialised and its quite likely Starmer will need the LDs as well.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,137
    Dura_Ace said:

    Roger said:

    Heathener said:

    Agree with TSE. I'm one of the majority who believe restrictions were lifted too soon. In fact I think we've gone crackers on this. But then, we didn't bring in restrictions fast enough either. The NHS is on its knees right now and so are other industries. As a friend of mine comments, 'the country has gone to the dogs.' Not a reference to Big Dog.

    And now of course without free LFT's we've no knowledge of the real figures, which just perpetuates the fear. Johnson is an f-ing idiot.

    Speaking of which, he must be cross not to command the front pages. I'm surprised. Only The Observer and Express lead with his photo op trip to Ukraine.

    When everyone knows that Johnson's life is just one giant ego trip even newspapers as crass as the Sun and Mail baulk at being sucked into it
    What on earth are you going to do when he wins GE24
    At least he’ll have the comfort of knowing he didn’t vote for him. The self justifying reasons of those who did will be quite the sight.

    My estimate of top 5:

    Vaccines
    We can’t trust the party of Corbyn
    The sanctity of M&S changing rooms
    Ukraine
    BJ may be a FLSOJ but he likes a laff
    The vaccines didn't make much difference in the end did they? The UK was about in the middle of the European averages on deaths and economic fuckedness.
    After everyone who enjoys doing Britain down was trumpeting how far out front of the death leagues we were.....

    Germany, France and Italy aren't way up in the economic fuckedness league because they daren't turn off Russian gas. Thereby funding Russia's war machine (aka paying some museum curators to get their post-war tanks moving again, towards their inevitable destruction at the hands of a British-donated NLAW.)
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    LeonLeon Posts: 47,474
    DavidL said:

    It's frustrating that the French channels are not even allowed to report that voting is "brisk" (it probably isn't). My understanding is that we will get exit polls at 8pm Paris time. Am I right in thinking, as Paris is GMT+2 and we are currently GMT+ 1 that will be 7pm here?

    They are allowed to report turnout in real-time

    I just read that in some of the DOM-TOMS (which started voting long before the metropole) voting is way down on last time: at least so far. Could be nothing, could benefit.... Le Pen? Macron? No one?
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    kjhkjh Posts: 10,670

    IshmaelZ said:


    I am truly amazed at the fantastic amount of military expertise on display on pb.com today.

    AFAIK, the only person who has any experience in war is @Dura_Ace

    And perhaps, @TOPPING

    I'd weight their views rather more strongly than those who wish to play poker with Putin from thousands of miles away.

    That is because of your pitifully weak grasp of history. It is a truism these days that WW2 was won in the factories and shipyards and oilfields, not at the sharp end. And it is true.
    Your viewpoint has of course its customary weighting of

    Gμ ν + Λ g μ ν - Κ T μ ν
    What does that mean please?
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,787
    Moscow’s forces were thwarted, too, by pieces of foam mat — the Ukrainians call them karemats — costing as little as £1.50. The mats prevent Russian thermal imaging drones from detecting human heat. “We held the karemats over our head”, said Konoko, explaining how his men moved stealthily in tiny groups at night.

    In that way soldiers armed with anti-tank weapons supplied by the US, Britain and others could sneak up on the Russians, fire their deadly and accurate missiles and then slip away.


    https://www.ft.com/content/e87fdc60-0d5e-4d39-93c6-7cfd22f770e8
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    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 7,082

    moonshine said:

    Heathener said:

    Agree with TSE. I'm one of the majority who believe restrictions were lifted too soon. In fact I think we've gone crackers on this. But then, we didn't bring in restrictions fast enough either. The NHS is on its knees right now and so are other industries. As a friend of mine comments, 'the country has gone to the dogs.' Not a reference to Big Dog.

    And now of course without free LFT's we've no knowledge of the real figures, which just perpetuates the fear. Johnson is an f-ing idiot.

    Speaking of which, he must be cross not to command the front pages. I'm surprised. Only The Observer and Express lead with his photo op trip to Ukraine.

    Millions of views on social media already. Quite a few in Russia I bet. Must stick in your throat that.
    Good morning

    Sky report this morning should make us proud for once of Boris's visit to Ukraine and our role in their defence

    I understand why some have such a viserreal dislike of Boris, but for today anyway I believe he has been a credit to our country
    But you are bringing party politics into this argument by eulogising Johnson.

    Hats off to BigDog for going to Kyiv (although he is not the first- your hated nemesis UVDL was there the day before) and showing British solidarity with the Ukrainian people. As the Ukrainian Government tweeted, he was very "brave", but in my book, no braver than a hatful of other European leaders who have made the same journey. If he had been holed up in the bunker with Zelenskiy marshaling Ukrainian troops during the siege of Kyiv, now that would be brave.

    Cynicism for Johnson's motives, even when he does the right thing is not being anti-British. It is a healthy skepticism for a man who has self-indulgent form in pretty much anything he does.
    Boris was brave in training Ukrainian troops and supplying Ukraine with some very effective kit.
    The policy precedes Johnson, with training starting in 2015, and continued under his predecessors. He does deserve credit for pithily summarising what needs to happen "Putin must fail" unlike some (most) of his more mealy mouthed "on the one hand, on the other hand" European peers.
    I don’t get this “it started before him he gets no credit” line

    Yes, it started before him. And yes, as PM, he would have had to authorise it continuing. And yes could have stopped it if he wanted. So he deserves credit, as do others.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,047
    HYUFD said:

    As France goes to the polls today in the first round of the presidential election, Scott Morrison calls the Australian Federal election for May 21st

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-61055915.amp

    Goody! More opinion polls to discuss! And some of us will have Australian relatives with opinions! (I haven't, but one of my sons visits reasonably often on business.)
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    kjhkjh Posts: 10,670

    Roger said:

    Heathener said:

    Agree with TSE. I'm one of the majority who believe restrictions were lifted too soon. In fact I think we've gone crackers on this. But then, we didn't bring in restrictions fast enough either. The NHS is on its knees right now and so are other industries. As a friend of mine comments, 'the country has gone to the dogs.' Not a reference to Big Dog.

    And now of course without free LFT's we've no knowledge of the real figures, which just perpetuates the fear. Johnson is an f-ing idiot.

    Speaking of which, he must be cross not to command the front pages. I'm surprised. Only The Observer and Express lead with his photo op trip to Ukraine.

    When everyone knows that Johnson's life is just one giant ego trip even newspapers as crass as the Sun and Mail baulk at being sucked into it
    What on earth are you going to do when he wins GE24
    Give up on Britain and move to France…?
    Not so easy these days.
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    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,416

    Interesting thread:

    What one picture might be able to tell us about the upcoming Russian attempt to 'fix' the Donbas. This was tweeted by @JackDetsch this morning and its fascinating for showing a few things about this war and how its developing.

    https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1513047743912202246

    On the Telegraph Ukraine podcast recently their Defence Correspondent said that the sooner a Russian assault in the Donbas came, the better that would be for Ukraine, because it would indicate that the Russians were conducting military operations according to a political timetable (May 9th), rather than properly organising them.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,047

    Interesting thread:

    What one picture might be able to tell us about the upcoming Russian attempt to 'fix' the Donbas. This was tweeted by @JackDetsch this morning and its fascinating for showing a few things about this war and how its developing.

    https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1513047743912202246

    I think the first comment may give the armchair generals some pause for thought.
    First, and this is something we cant appreciate enough--there can be no surprises in this war. Even during Desert Storm after the Cold War, there could be ways of deceiving an opponent, hiding build-ups, etc. Those days seem to be gone.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,787

    moonshine said:

    Heathener said:

    Agree with TSE. I'm one of the majority who believe restrictions were lifted too soon. In fact I think we've gone crackers on this. But then, we didn't bring in restrictions fast enough either. The NHS is on its knees right now and so are other industries. As a friend of mine comments, 'the country has gone to the dogs.' Not a reference to Big Dog.

    And now of course without free LFT's we've no knowledge of the real figures, which just perpetuates the fear. Johnson is an f-ing idiot.

    Speaking of which, he must be cross not to command the front pages. I'm surprised. Only The Observer and Express lead with his photo op trip to Ukraine.

    Millions of views on social media already. Quite a few in Russia I bet. Must stick in your throat that.
    Good morning

    Sky report this morning should make us proud for once of Boris's visit to Ukraine and our role in their defence

    I understand why some have such a viserreal dislike of Boris, but for today anyway I believe he has been a credit to our country
    But you are bringing party politics into this argument by eulogising Johnson.

    Hats off to BigDog for going to Kyiv (although he is not the first- your hated nemesis UVDL was there the day before) and showing British solidarity with the Ukrainian people. As the Ukrainian Government tweeted, he was very "brave", but in my book, no braver than a hatful of other European leaders who have made the same journey. If he had been holed up in the bunker with Zelenskiy marshaling Ukrainian troops during the siege of Kyiv, now that would be brave.

    Cynicism for Johnson's motives, even when he does the right thing is not being anti-British. It is a healthy skepticism for a man who has self-indulgent form in pretty much anything he does.
    Boris was brave in training Ukrainian troops and supplying Ukraine with some very effective kit.
    The policy precedes Johnson, with training starting in 2015, and continued under his predecessors. He does deserve credit for pithily summarising what needs to happen "Putin must fail" unlike some (most) of his more mealy mouthed "on the one hand, on the other hand" European peers.
    I don’t get this “it started before him he gets no credit” line

    Yes, it started before him. And yes, as PM, he would have had to authorise it continuing. And yes could have stopped it if he wanted. So he deserves credit, as do others.
    It's not "he gets no credit" it's "he doesn't get all of the credit for something he didn't start".
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,252
    edited April 2022
    Now Big Doggie had popped his fear cherry over doing walkabouts in places that aren’t full of English Brexiteers, can we expect one in Scotland? Glasgow before the locals would be great for the gaiety of the nation (my one).
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    MattWMattW Posts: 18,701
    Belated FPT. I have over-breakfasted.
    Foxy said:

    NEW: In the week the health secretary said there was a "moral" duty to raise tax to pay for the NHS, he reveals he was a non dom and had an overseas trust in the early 2000s https://t.co/nJDJax6OhY

    These crooks keep it legal for just this reason. Taxes are for the plebs, not the Masters of the Universe".

    "Crook?" :smile:

    This one looks like an advanced breaking of the legs of anyone trying to make it a story.

    According to the piece:

    Was not a "non-dom" in his political life.
    Paid taxes abroad whilst he was working abroad.
    Paid taxes in the UK as overseas assets / income have been repatriated.
    Closed the structure down and paid 50% tax on it all when he became a Minister.

    If this stuff keeps up someone is going to mention Chair of the Public Accounts Committee Margaret Hodge the Taxfinder General, and in the middle of her taxdodger hunting activities her £1.5m of shares repatriated under the Luxemburg Disclosure Facility from a previousty undisclosed offshore trust. Most of which had been held on her behalf in a Trust in Panama, which jurisdiction she had been having a go at the time.

    https://www.taxjournal.com/articles/press-watch-margaret-hodge-given-15m-shares-tax-haven-30042015
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    kjhkjh Posts: 10,670
    MattW said:

    I’ve stocked up with beer and am on my way again (JJ, were any of your 120 mile weeks hydrated solely with beer?).

    I’m headed for the French border today. Whether I cross it will depend on the time and my tiredness when I get to Portbou (I haven’t booked tonight’s room yet). I could have taken a short route along the coast, but that would have meant walking on a busy road’s hard shoulder, so I’ve for the five mile longer “scenic” route..

    It looks like I’ve got some more climbing to do!

    For your comfort and if I have my geography right, JJs 120 mile weeks were in Leicestershire, which is essentially flat.

    (Some people from Leicestershire insist that this allegation is not true. :smile: )
    I found when cycling in Norfolk it was surprisingly mountainous, which had nothing to do with me being a bit overweight.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941

    Sophie Raworth informed this morning by Ukraine's chief diplomatic advisor that the President of Ukraine issued the invite to Boris which he accepted

    Video of his train journey

    Boris Johnson on Ukrainian train

    https://news.sky.com/video/share-12586946

    Ah, so the official narrative is a train from Poland to Kiev, obviously not released until well after he had left the country.

    If that’s the VIP corridor, it’s sadly an easy target for a team of Russian special forces.
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    MattWMattW Posts: 18,701
    DavidL said:

    It's frustrating that the French channels are not even allowed to report that voting is "brisk" (it probably isn't). My understanding is that we will get exit polls at 8pm Paris time. Am I right in thinking, as Paris is GMT+2 and we are currently GMT+ 1 that will be 7pm here?

    Do people get to do private opinion polls, and get the results?

    Or is it just a media ban to keep the hoi-polloi in ignorance?
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    nico679nico679 Posts: 4,979
    DavidL said:

    It's frustrating that the French channels are not even allowed to report that voting is "brisk" (it probably isn't). My understanding is that we will get exit polls at 8pm Paris time. Am I right in thinking, as Paris is GMT+2 and we are currently GMT+ 1 that will be 7pm here?

    The problem with these restrictions is that candidates aren’t allowed to rebuff last minute social media lies about what they might do and this is especially pertinent with likely interference by Russia who will do everything to get their Putin lapdog elected .
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    BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489
    MattW said:

    I don' want to upset dear Roger, but the following tweet is interesting:

    "NEW: Russia is sending an 8-mi long convoy of 100s of vehicles, including armored vehicles and artillery southbound through the Ukrainian town of Velykyi Burluk.

    The convoy is moving about 60 mi east of Ukraine’s 2nd-largest city of Kharkiv, as 🇷🇺 focuses on Donbas."

    https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1513022241067446272

    Hmmm. That's within the strike radius of a Bayraktar 2, ground control allowing.

    Though reports have been that Russia has upped its convoy protection game for several weeks now.
    I don't know how many Bayrakters are left? IIRC Russia is clamming to have shot down 35 of the 18 that Ukraine has, which would be impressive if it was not obviously nonsense. However based partly on the lack of recent reports video of Byrakters strike's in the last few days, its possible/probable that most of the Ukrainian Bayrakters have been shot down or at least damaged. I think there is a delay for new deliveries, because the Turkish company is still building the nest batch.

    Its sad the the West, overall has been so slow to send meaningful quantity's of powerful enough weapons or this convoy, and the rest of the Russian army would be in big trouble.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    Get in there! More weapons like that, please.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,137

    Now Big Doggie had popped his fear cherry over doing walkabouts in places that aren’t full of English Brexiteers, can we expect one in Scotland? Glasgow before the locals would be great for the gaiety of the nation (my one).

    Only if he can sit on a plundered Russian tank along with half a dozen guys armed with NLAWs....
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,792
    I don’t remember seeing this reported at the time, but it makes abundantly clear what Putin’s intentions were back in 2014. And makes the west’s reaction to the 2014 events look even more feeble.

    Former Polish FM Says Putin Offered To Divide Ukraine With Poland
    https://www.rferl.org/a/26647587.html
    Polish parliamentary speaker Radoslaw Sikorski says that in 2008 Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed to Poland's then-prime minister that they divide Ukraine between themselves.

    Sikorski, who until September served as foreign minister, told the U.S. "Politico" website that Putin made the proposal during Prime Minister Donald Tusk's visit to Moscow in 2008.

    Sikorski was quoted as saying in the interview, dated October 19, "He wanted us to become participants in this partition of Ukraine...This was one of the first things that Putin said to my prime minister, Donald Tusk, when he visited Moscow."...
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,047
    Sandpit said:

    Sophie Raworth informed this morning by Ukraine's chief diplomatic advisor that the President of Ukraine issued the invite to Boris which he accepted

    Video of his train journey

    Boris Johnson on Ukrainian train

    https://news.sky.com/video/share-12586946

    Ah, so the official narrative is a train from Poland to Kiev, obviously not released until well after he had left the country.

    If that’s the VIP corridor, it’s sadly an easy target for a team of Russian special forces.
    Wasn't someone else sent across country on a sealed train? And look how that turned out!
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    MattWMattW Posts: 18,701
    Carnyx said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/travel/2022/apr/10/vintage-train-journeys-uk-at-risk-as-coal-supply-fails

    The problems steam trains in the UK have cos they relied on coal imports. Didn't @JosiasJessop or @SandyRentool raise this the other day?

    I wonder if we will see a reverse-ferret on the Cumbria coal mine. Is it the right sort of coal?

    Wasn't the cancellation another of those national morally-righteous activist campaigns essentially bullying the local council into submission?

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    BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489
    Sandpit said:

    Sophie Raworth informed this morning by Ukraine's chief diplomatic advisor that the President of Ukraine issued the invite to Boris which he accepted

    Video of his train journey

    Boris Johnson on Ukrainian train

    https://news.sky.com/video/share-12586946

    Ah, so the official narrative is a train from Poland to Kiev, obviously not released until well after he had left the country.

    If that’s the VIP corridor, it’s sadly an easy target for a team of Russian special forces.
    it might be for any other army's Special Forces, but the, but the Russians don't seem very good at anything but killing unarmed kids and females.
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,252

    Now Big Doggie had popped his fear cherry over doing walkabouts in places that aren’t full of English Brexiteers, can we expect one in Scotland? Glasgow before the locals would be great for the gaiety of the nation (my one).

    Only if he can sit on a plundered Russian tank along with half a dozen guys armed with NLAWs....
    Extreme danger of Glasgow Unionists not handing both the tank and the NLAWs back.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,894

    Dura_Ace said:

    Roger said:

    Heathener said:

    Agree with TSE. I'm one of the majority who believe restrictions were lifted too soon. In fact I think we've gone crackers on this. But then, we didn't bring in restrictions fast enough either. The NHS is on its knees right now and so are other industries. As a friend of mine comments, 'the country has gone to the dogs.' Not a reference to Big Dog.

    And now of course without free LFT's we've no knowledge of the real figures, which just perpetuates the fear. Johnson is an f-ing idiot.

    Speaking of which, he must be cross not to command the front pages. I'm surprised. Only The Observer and Express lead with his photo op trip to Ukraine.

    When everyone knows that Johnson's life is just one giant ego trip even newspapers as crass as the Sun and Mail baulk at being sucked into it
    I hope Zelenskyy is aware of the traditional fate of friends of Johnson. Exploited, abandoned and then ignored is the usual trajectory.
    A true Brit then!

    Remember the old Arab proverb: “it is better to be the enemy of the British than their friend, for they buy their enemies and sell their friends”
    Wasn't that a line from Lawrence of Arabia?
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,371
    nico679 said:

    DavidL said:

    It's frustrating that the French channels are not even allowed to report that voting is "brisk" (it probably isn't). My understanding is that we will get exit polls at 8pm Paris time. Am I right in thinking, as Paris is GMT+2 and we are currently GMT+ 1 that will be 7pm here?

    The problem with these restrictions is that candidates aren’t allowed to rebuff last minute social media lies about what they might do and this is especially pertinent with likely interference by Russia who will do everything to get their Putin lapdog elected .
    Which one is that again?
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,047

    Now Big Doggie had popped his fear cherry over doing walkabouts in places that aren’t full of English Brexiteers, can we expect one in Scotland? Glasgow before the locals would be great for the gaiety of the nation (my one).

    Only if he can sit on a plundered Russian tank along with half a dozen guys armed with NLAWs....
    Extreme danger of Glasgow Unionists not handing both the tank and the NLAWs back.
    Isn't there one in Epping he could use?
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    Nigelb said:

    I don’t remember seeing this reported at the time, but it makes abundantly clear what Putin’s intentions were back in 2014. And makes the west’s reaction to the 2014 events look even more feeble.

    Former Polish FM Says Putin Offered To Divide Ukraine With Poland
    https://www.rferl.org/a/26647587.html
    Polish parliamentary speaker Radoslaw Sikorski says that in 2008 Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed to Poland's then-prime minister that they divide Ukraine between themselves.

    Sikorski, who until September served as foreign minister, told the U.S. "Politico" website that Putin made the proposal during Prime Minister Donald Tusk's visit to Moscow in 2008.

    Sikorski was quoted as saying in the interview, dated October 19, "He wanted us to become participants in this partition of Ukraine...This was one of the first things that Putin said to my prime minister, Donald Tusk, when he visited Moscow."...

    Donald Tusk, whatever happened to him…
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,151
    Sandpit said:

    Sophie Raworth informed this morning by Ukraine's chief diplomatic advisor that the President of Ukraine issued the invite to Boris which he accepted

    Video of his train journey

    Boris Johnson on Ukrainian train

    https://news.sky.com/video/share-12586946

    Ah, so the official narrative is a train from Poland to Kiev, obviously not released until well after he had left the country.

    If that’s the VIP corridor, it’s sadly an easy target for a team of Russian special forces.
    I'm not saying the Russians are totally sane but if a NATO head of state got assassinated that would likely work out much better for Zelenskyy than Putin.

    Watching that video I wondered if the same thought had occurred to Boris; Apart from when he walks over to greet the random security-cleared Boris fan who they happen to run into he tries to stand as close to Zelenskyy as possible...
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,691
    I typed "Tax dodger" into this AI image generator thingy.

    Rather than coming up with pictures of fat cat Tories, it offered up images of cars.

    Fail!
  • Options
    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    MattW said:

    Carnyx said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/travel/2022/apr/10/vintage-train-journeys-uk-at-risk-as-coal-supply-fails

    The problems steam trains in the UK have cos they relied on coal imports. Didn't @JosiasJessop or @SandyRentool raise this the other day?

    I wonder if we will see a reverse-ferret on the Cumbria coal mine. Is it the right sort of coal?

    Wasn't the cancellation another of those national morally-righteous activist campaigns essentially bullying the local council into submission?

    Electrify the locomotives, or just stick an inconspicuous diesel locomotive in behind the Jacobite or whatever. Just one more layer of pretendiness, and who is actually going to mind?
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,787
    Clearly didn't get the #FMPE memo:

    One of President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s advisers has called Boris Johnson’s visit to the Ukrainian capital Kyiv “very timely and very important”.

    Speaking on BBC One’s Sunday Morning Ihor Zhovkva, senior diplomatic adviser to President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, said that the UK prime minister “did not come empty handed”, with the pair discussing various types of support the UK could offer, including anti-ship missiles and financial support.

    Zhovkva said the anti-ship missiles would help defend cities like Odesa under attack by Russian warships.

    The message from Zhovkva was clear. Ukraine needed “weapons, weapons and more weapons”, he said.


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/10/russia-ukraine-war-latest-zelenskiy-pushes-for-oil-embargo-to-curb-russias-sense-of-impunity-uk-pledges-to-send-more-arms-live?page=with:block-62529ab68f083703c7bd9717#block-62529ab68f083703c7bd9717
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,314
    How has Sunak not resigned yet?

    He spent the first 19 months of being Chancellor as a permanent resident of another country.

    Hard to think of many large conflicts of interest.

    How has the Ministerial Code allowed this.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,792

    How has Sunak not resigned yet?

    He spent the first 19 months of being Chancellor as a permanent resident of another country.

    Hard to think of many large conflicts of interest.

    How has the Ministerial Code allowed this.

    Demanding a leak enquiry….
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-61055789
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    MattWMattW Posts: 18,701
    edited April 2022
    On last night's conversation with respect to Pakistan PM, it is not very secure employment. The last 10:

    Imran Khan - current
    Shahid Khaqan Abbasi - Caretaker PM
    Nawaz Sharif - Impeached (Panama Papers case)
    Raja Pervaiz Ashraf - Disqualified over Contempt of Court
    Yousaf Raza Gillani - Disqualified for Contempt of Court
    Shaukat Aziz - Reached end of term
    Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain - Caretaker PM
    Mir Zafarullah Khan Jamali - Resigned.
    Nawaz Sharif - Deposed by Military
    Benazir Bhutto - Served 2 terms. Later murdered.

    Much larger governance issues are in play, of course.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,047
    Roger said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Roger said:

    Heathener said:

    Agree with TSE. I'm one of the majority who believe restrictions were lifted too soon. In fact I think we've gone crackers on this. But then, we didn't bring in restrictions fast enough either. The NHS is on its knees right now and so are other industries. As a friend of mine comments, 'the country has gone to the dogs.' Not a reference to Big Dog.

    And now of course without free LFT's we've no knowledge of the real figures, which just perpetuates the fear. Johnson is an f-ing idiot.

    Speaking of which, he must be cross not to command the front pages. I'm surprised. Only The Observer and Express lead with his photo op trip to Ukraine.

    When everyone knows that Johnson's life is just one giant ego trip even newspapers as crass as the Sun and Mail baulk at being sucked into it
    I hope Zelenskyy is aware of the traditional fate of friends of Johnson. Exploited, abandoned and then ignored is the usual trajectory.
    A true Brit then!

    Remember the old Arab proverb: “it is better to be the enemy of the British than their friend, for they buy their enemies and sell their friends”
    Wasn't that a line from Lawrence of Arabia?
    Q. Why didn't the sun set on the British Empire?

    A. Because God didn't trust the British in the dark.
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    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Sandpit said:

    Sophie Raworth informed this morning by Ukraine's chief diplomatic advisor that the President of Ukraine issued the invite to Boris which he accepted

    Video of his train journey

    Boris Johnson on Ukrainian train

    https://news.sky.com/video/share-12586946

    Ah, so the official narrative is a train from Poland to Kiev, obviously not released until well after he had left the country.

    If that’s the VIP corridor, it’s sadly an easy target for a team of Russian special forces.
    I'm not saying the Russians are totally sane but if a NATO head of state got assassinated that would likely work out much better for Zelenskyy than Putin.

    Watching that video I wondered if the same thought had occurred to Boris; Apart from when he walks over to greet the random security-cleared Boris fan who they happen to run into he tries to stand as close to Zelenskyy as possible...
    How terrible if a Ukrainian sniper had thwacked our Prime Minister in a false flag operation.

    An unutterably awful thing to happen.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,314
    Was the Sunak leak, Classic Dom?

  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,314
    Nigelb said:

    How has Sunak not resigned yet?

    He spent the first 19 months of being Chancellor as a permanent resident of another country.

    Hard to think of many large conflicts of interest.

    How has the Ministerial Code allowed this.

    Demanding a leak enquiry….
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-61055789
    That's it. Catch the mole. That'll sort this out.

    Good idea, Rishi.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,047

    How has Sunak not resigned yet?

    He spent the first 19 months of being Chancellor as a permanent resident of another country.

    Hard to think of many large conflicts of interest.

    How has the Ministerial Code allowed this.

    Rules, my dear chap, are for other people. Not for those at the top of the Conservative party.

    I wonder what would have happened if Chris Huhne had been a senior Conservative minister instead of a LibDem one.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,128
    Nigelb said:

    I don’t remember seeing this reported at the time, but it makes abundantly clear what Putin’s intentions were back in 2014. And makes the west’s reaction to the 2014 events look even more feeble.

    Former Polish FM Says Putin Offered To Divide Ukraine With Poland
    https://www.rferl.org/a/26647587.html
    Polish parliamentary speaker Radoslaw Sikorski says that in 2008 Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed to Poland's then-prime minister that they divide Ukraine between themselves.

    Sikorski, who until September served as foreign minister, told the U.S. "Politico" website that Putin made the proposal during Prime Minister Donald Tusk's visit to Moscow in 2008.

    Sikorski was quoted as saying in the interview, dated October 19, "He wanted us to become participants in this partition of Ukraine...This was one of the first things that Putin said to my prime minister, Donald Tusk, when he visited Moscow."...

    Didn't Donald Tusk like to pose as a self-styled resistance hardman in his younger days.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,792
    I can’t help wondering if something like this might be better value than replacing Trident.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arrow_3
    Even South Korea is developing a domestic anti ballistic missile system.

    OTOH, Israel have both this and nukes.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,994
    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    I don' want to upset dear Roger, but the following tweet is interesting:

    "NEW: Russia is sending an 8-mi long convoy of 100s of vehicles, including armored vehicles and artillery southbound through the Ukrainian town of Velykyi Burluk.

    The convoy is moving about 60 mi east of Ukraine’s 2nd-largest city of Kharkiv, as 🇷🇺 focuses on Donbas."

    https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1513022241067446272

    What has that got to do with Roger? I know, he is a very, very bad man for voting Labour, despising Johnson and having a home in France, but I can't make the link to Putin.
    IshmaelZ said:

    felix said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    felix said:

    Insane that anyone should be annoyed by Johnson visiting Kyiv. Demonstrating British solidarity with the Ukraine is hugely important and going there is a big part of that. Same with other visits from other European and EU leaders. It is absolutely the right thing to do. This surely goes beyond partisan politics.

    For some nothing goes beyond party politics.
    Including you and the other posters who think that while thousands are dying in Ukraine the only really important question in Kyiv is whether fatso's bum looks big in this photo opportunity. Atrocities = yawn.
    Ouch - I'm sorry, sad and somewhat amused by your pain.
    Yes, children being raped and murdered is always good for a sardonic chortle.

    I don't dispute your right in principle to comment on UK politics from abroad, but when you descend to petty point scoring about electoral outcomes which have no effect on you personally - about 85% of your output - I'm afraid I think Yeah, right: eunuch in a brothel. And on here because your Spanish is not up to any kind of discussion.
    Just last week the Government felt Conservative ex-patriots like Felix should be entitled to vote Conservative in our General Elections, even if they haven't troubled our shores for fifteen plus years.

    So Felix is perfectly entitled to his opinion on PB from his bolt hole in the sun on how we are governed back in Blighty. His vote is as important to Boris Johnson as yours or mine.
    Quite so. Foreign residents who don't have to live with the consequences of their kiss arse Brexitism are quite electorally important.
    I'm not personally a kiss arse Brexit person but I think I should have the right to vote *somewhere*. I don't particularly care whether it's Japan or Britain or even some other country chosen at random which I promise to learn a lot about. But "no vote anywhere unless your country of nationality matches your country of residence" is a bad policy, and the badness will increase as more people move around and end up in the same situation as me.

    Personally I feel like the country where you pay tax would be a better criterion than your country of nationality, but apparently most people disagree with me, so they should at least be consistent about it.
    Surely in the end it is down to an individual country how they organise their franchise irrespective of what other countries are doing and as long as they follow some basic rules of democracy then I don't really get the criticism.

    Personally my view is that anyone who has moved out of the country permanently should lose their right to vote in any elections. It is up for debate what the timescale should be for retaining the vote. 5 Years seems reasonable for that as you would be returning within the next electoral cycle. Anything longer and you lose the vote until you settle back in Britain…
    Seems a bit ungenerous, when we give Non Doms fifteen years before they lose their status….

    Thatv s my point. We should change that as well. I am proposing a tightening of all these rules across the board.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941

    How has Sunak not resigned yet?

    He spent the first 19 months of being Chancellor as a permanent resident of another country.

    Hard to think of many large conflicts of interest.

    How has the Ministerial Code allowed this.

    Rules, my dear chap, are for other people. Not for those at the top of the Conservative party.

    I wonder what would have happened if Chris Huhne had been a senior Conservative minister instead of a LibDem one.
    He’d have still ended up in prison. His problem was domestic rather than political.

    If you’re going to have your wife lie to a court for you, don’t cheat on her.
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,360
    Sean_F said:

    Sickening that as Putin inflicts brutal genocide on the Ukrainian people one of his avowed supporters could soon become President of France in a free and fair election. I think too much of the French to believe it will happen, but even that it could is horrific.

    I think it's unlikely, but I do expect her to win 40-45%.
    In the end most people don't vote on foreign policy, especially as even extreme politicians make a token effort to distance themselves from their dodgy opinions. Le Pen's campaign worked closely with Russia and she featured a meeting with Putin in pre-campaign literature, but she's keeping her head down on it now and unlike Zemmour is fine with looking after Ukrainian refugees. If you're thinking of voting for her because (say) you think the cost of living is soaring and Macron is smug and uncaring, you probably don't spend much time pondering exactly what Le Pen thinks about Ukraine.

    On topic, I think the main criticism which Starmer should use is that the Government is preoccupied with issues distant from everyday concerns - culture wars, Ukraine, rather than price rises, Covid resurgence, waiting lists. I don't think there's any reason to criticise Johnson from visiting Ukraine, which they clearly appreciate very much. But he needs to visit some UK hospitals and food banks too, and come back with new initiatives to help the position in both. Many people have the impression is that he's just not very interested in mundane stuff, and with Sunak preoccupied with personal issues the leadership just seems AWOL on everyday life.
  • Options
    Gary_BurtonGary_Burton Posts: 737
    edited April 2022
    HYUFD said:

    As France goes to the polls today in the first round of the presidential election, Scott Morrison calls the Australian Federal election for May 21st

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-61055915.amp

    Should be close perhaps with Morrison pulling it out of the bag given he and Albanese are effectively tied in preferred PM ratings.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,047
    Sandpit said:

    How has Sunak not resigned yet?

    He spent the first 19 months of being Chancellor as a permanent resident of another country.

    Hard to think of many large conflicts of interest.

    How has the Ministerial Code allowed this.

    Rules, my dear chap, are for other people. Not for those at the top of the Conservative party.

    I wonder what would have happened if Chris Huhne had been a senior Conservative minister instead of a LibDem one.
    He’d have still ended up in prison. His problem was domestic rather than political.

    If you’re going to have your wife lie to a court for you, don’t cheat on her.
    Fair point. However as I recall the wife went to prison as well, and is now living with some Labour ne'er do well.
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    Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,060

    PBers have been completely inaccurate re sanctions and the impact on Russian ability to fight the war.

    "Will not be able to continue beyond the end of the month at the longest" was the common view in mid March

    Given that the Russians have completely withdrawn from the north of the country and have made very little if any progress elsewhere in the last couple of weeks, that looks like a decent prediction to me.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,128
    How many of the 44% wanted the government to keep giving them money to stay at home ?

    And for other people to pay the resulting extra taxes.
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    Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,060

    Woman tells how Russians were shocked how Ukrainians lived - "They have all houses made of bricks, laptops and Nutella in every house - it can't be,"

    https://twitter.com/expatua/status/1512701296796700676

    Similar attitudes when the Russians invaded Germany in 1944/5.
    Only without the laptops or Nutella.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,787
    But notwithstanding his usual bluster, on the same issue that has other politicians tying themselves in knots over fear of getting it wrong [Johnson] ...has been unequivocally clear, that biology matters, that women should have access to single-sex spaces, that biological males should not compete against women in sport, and that the safeguarding of children is paramount.

    It’s contrary times when the PM sounds like the voice of reason, but on the latter point he is right and while he and everyone else supports a ban on so-called conversion therapies that brutally attempt to change someone’s sexual orientation on the basis that they can “cured”, and which he describes as “utterly abhorrent”, the issues around approaches, particularly, to young people and gender identity are less clear. Sexuality and gender identity are, after all, not the same thing.

    Concerns about unintended consequences don’t come from the mouths of religious zealots, transphobes or bigots, rather, they come from respected clinicians who care passionately about the lives of young people

    And legislators are rightly nervous about cementing in statute a gender ideology which currently has no status in law and no clear definitions. What can you ban that you can’t name?


    https://www.holyrood.com/editors-column/view,editors-column-pressing-pause
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,137
    Interesting piece on Ukrainian troops tackling Russian troops and clearing them out of occupied towns four times:

    https://www.esquire.com/news-politics/a39651567/nova-basan-ukraine-military-photos/
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    Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,390
    IshmaelZ said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sophie Raworth informed this morning by Ukraine's chief diplomatic advisor that the President of Ukraine issued the invite to Boris which he accepted

    Video of his train journey

    Boris Johnson on Ukrainian train

    https://news.sky.com/video/share-12586946

    Ah, so the official narrative is a train from Poland to Kiev, obviously not released until well after he had left the country.

    If that’s the VIP corridor, it’s sadly an easy target for a team of Russian special forces.
    I'm not saying the Russians are totally sane but if a NATO head of state got assassinated that would likely work out much better for Zelenskyy than Putin.

    Watching that video I wondered if the same thought had occurred to Boris; Apart from when he walks over to greet the random security-cleared Boris fan who they happen to run into he tries to stand as close to Zelenskyy as possible...
    How terrible if a Ukrainian sniper had thwacked our Prime Minister in a false flag operation.

    An unutterably awful thing to happen.
    At least he travelled by train. If it had been a helicopter with an armed escort of helicopters 3 things could have happened:

    1 He would have got through without trouble
    2 His helicopter would have been shot down
    3 His escort helicopters may have shot down a Russian helicopter defending him causing WW3
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,842

    Sean_F said:

    Sickening that as Putin inflicts brutal genocide on the Ukrainian people one of his avowed supporters could soon become President of France in a free and fair election. I think too much of the French to believe it will happen, but even that it could is horrific.

    I think it's unlikely, but I do expect her to win 40-45%.
    In the end most people don't vote on foreign policy, especially as even extreme politicians make a token effort to distance themselves from their dodgy opinions. Le Pen's campaign worked closely with Russia and she featured a meeting with Putin in pre-campaign literature, but she's keeping her head down on it now and unlike Zemmour is fine with looking after Ukrainian refugees. If you're thinking of voting for her because (say) you think the cost of living is soaring and Macron is smug and uncaring, you probably don't spend much time pondering exactly what Le Pen thinks about Ukraine.

    On topic, I think the main criticism which Starmer should use is that the Government is preoccupied with issues distant from everyday concerns - culture wars, Ukraine, rather than price rises, Covid resurgence, waiting lists. I don't think there's any reason to criticise Johnson from visiting Ukraine, which they clearly appreciate very much. But he needs to visit some UK hospitals and food banks too, and come back with new initiatives to help the position in both. Many people have the impression is that he's just not very interested in mundane stuff, and with Sunak preoccupied with personal issues the leadership just seems AWOL on everyday life.
    Perhaps they get their view of everyday life for common people from watching Eastenders and Corrie so focussed on petty rivalries, backstabbing, drip drip reveals of old indiscretions and a lot of boozing. The leadership might think they are spot on with everyday life!
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,360
    Off topic, I went round Charleston (https://www.charleston.org.uk/) with a friend yesterday and picked up a book which is focused on the people in the Bloomsbury Group more than the paintings and sculptures, amazing though some of them are. The sense of uninhibited curiosity and zeal to break boundaries is overpowering and mostly admirable, though some details gave me pause. One of the group, looking at a baby, says "I'm going to marry her when she grows up", and as the baby goes into her teens he starts asking her, and after several refusals she finally agrees at age 17 - and they have an apparently happy marriage. Euuu, not sure about any of that.

    But the other thing is that they don't sound all that nice - to each other or to people outside the group. They are so busy breaking taboos and and creating that they seemingly don't have time for ordinary love and kindness. Or did they, and it just hasn't caught the eye of biographers as much as the art and the ideas? Do others here know more?
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062

    Sickening that as Putin inflicts brutal genocide on the Ukrainian people one of his avowed supporters could soon become President of France in a free and fair election. I think too much of the French to believe it will happen, but even that it could is horrific.

    That is just silly, hard to believe how deluded the English

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    On balance, restrictions were probably lifted too early. But, from a very selfish perspective, I am glad they were!

    If that was the case, then UK countries which maintained them longer should have done better at controlling COVID. That Sturgeon has stopped comparing Scotland's performance with England tells you all you need to know.
    More basic reason for that. It's impossible to make meaningful comparisons [edit], now testing has been de facto abandoned in England first.
    The ONS survey, which continues, always was more reliable than testing - and that was what Sturgeon based her "doing better than England" comparisons upon.
    And how can they do it if the UKG has been choking off the supply of free tests? That's going to distort the stats for anything lower than hospitalizations. Edit: We've still got free tests in Scotland, for now.
    Its a survey.

    The ONS sends out the tests.

    It's got nothing to do with the supply of free/paid for LFTs.

    The UK was doing massively more free LFT testing than any other G7 country and had to be ended at some stage.

    Of course "free" = "tax payer paid for".

    To the point of substance - why hasn't Scotland done better than England, despite maintaining restrictions longer?
    Quite bizarre that Scotland was generally lower numbers thoughout most of the pandemic but recently has become worse than rest of UK despite keeping restrictions longer.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    How has Sunak not resigned yet?

    He spent the first 19 months of being Chancellor as a permanent resident of another country.

    Hard to think of many large conflicts of interest.

    How has the Ministerial Code allowed this.

    Surprised there hasn't been any further revelations about his American Winter holiday/very-important-but-totally-undocumented-business-meetings yet.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,513
    DavidL said:

    It's frustrating that the French channels are not even allowed to report that voting is "brisk" (it probably isn't). My understanding is that we will get exit polls at 8pm Paris time. Am I right in thinking, as Paris is GMT+2 and we are currently GMT+ 1 that will be 7pm here?

    Yes. France is one hour ahead of us, despite Brexit.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,128

    Sean_F said:

    Sickening that as Putin inflicts brutal genocide on the Ukrainian people one of his avowed supporters could soon become President of France in a free and fair election. I think too much of the French to believe it will happen, but even that it could is horrific.

    I think it's unlikely, but I do expect her to win 40-45%.
    In the end most people don't vote on foreign policy, especially as even extreme politicians make a token effort to distance themselves from their dodgy opinions. Le Pen's campaign worked closely with Russia and she featured a meeting with Putin in pre-campaign literature, but she's keeping her head down on it now and unlike Zemmour is fine with looking after Ukrainian refugees. If you're thinking of voting for her because (say) you think the cost of living is soaring and Macron is smug and uncaring, you probably don't spend much time pondering exactly what Le Pen thinks about Ukraine.

    On topic, I think the main criticism which Starmer should use is that the Government is preoccupied with issues distant from everyday concerns - culture wars, Ukraine, rather than price rises, Covid resurgence, waiting lists. I don't think there's any reason to criticise Johnson from visiting Ukraine, which they clearly appreciate very much. But he needs to visit some UK hospitals and food banks too, and come back with new initiatives to help the position in both. Many people have the impression is that he's just not very interested in mundane stuff, and with Sunak preoccupied with personal issues the leadership just seems AWOL on everyday life.
    Foodbanks may get middle class leftists excited but they really aren't an issue to the 80%.

    Energy and housing are more relevant issues.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941

    Sandpit said:

    Sophie Raworth informed this morning by Ukraine's chief diplomatic advisor that the President of Ukraine issued the invite to Boris which he accepted

    Video of his train journey

    Boris Johnson on Ukrainian train

    https://news.sky.com/video/share-12586946

    Ah, so the official narrative is a train from Poland to Kiev, obviously not released until well after he had left the country.

    If that’s the VIP corridor, it’s sadly an easy target for a team of Russian special forces.
    I'm not saying the Russians are totally sane but if a NATO head of state got assassinated that would likely work out much better for Zelenskyy than Putin.

    Watching that video I wondered if the same thought had occurred to Boris; Apart from when he walks over to greet the random security-cleared Boris fan who they happen to run into he tries to stand as close to Zelenskyy as possible...
    I imagine that he was rather nervous, to put it mildly. Probably wearing a Kevlar vest under that suit as well.

    Serious guts on display from both leaders.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    edited April 2022

    Leon said:

    Just made some bovine friends

    I'm really enjoying your PB travelogue, not just cause of the lovely snaps of sunny green Catalunya, but because you also seem to drink even more than me. So I feel less guilty

    Have another beer!
    Thought I’d try to get to the top of this hill before my next beer break, so I could show you the view.

    I’m now enjoying it with my friend San Miguel!

    Not been following your exploits too closely, but sounds like you’re having a fun little trip! Cheers 🍻
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,360
    MattW said:

    DavidL said:

    It's frustrating that the French channels are not even allowed to report that voting is "brisk" (it probably isn't). My understanding is that we will get exit polls at 8pm Paris time. Am I right in thinking, as Paris is GMT+2 and we are currently GMT+ 1 that will be 7pm here?

    Do people get to do private opinion polls, and get the results?

    Or is it just a media ban to keep the hoi-polloi in ignorance?
    Yes, 7pm. And yes, you can't make polling illegal unless you disable the telephone system (we're still seeing Western companies polling in Russia), and you can't stop them being published outside the country (e.g. Belgium), so I'd be wary of betting today, as others will have more information than us peasants.
  • Options
    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    How has Sunak not resigned yet?

    He spent the first 19 months of being Chancellor as a permanent resident of another country.

    Hard to think of many large conflicts of interest.

    How has the Ministerial Code allowed this.

    It is fun to point at him and laugh, but - he was obviously not in practice resident anywhere other than the UK; he can say his intentions had evolved since he got the green card - which they obviously had; and unfortunate oversight but he was busy being CotE during Covid

    Politically he has to go before the budget, because his stock is so low that a budget from him, even one which made Maynard Keynes look innumerate, is not sellable. New CotE needs a good run up, budget is end October. sunak will be shuffled out early summer to spend more time with his investments.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,792
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sophie Raworth informed this morning by Ukraine's chief diplomatic advisor that the President of Ukraine issued the invite to Boris which he accepted

    Video of his train journey

    Boris Johnson on Ukrainian train

    https://news.sky.com/video/share-12586946

    Ah, so the official narrative is a train from Poland to Kiev, obviously not released until well after he had left the country.

    If that’s the VIP corridor, it’s sadly an easy target for a team of Russian special forces.
    I'm not saying the Russians are totally sane but if a NATO head of state got assassinated that would likely work out much better for Zelenskyy than Putin.

    Watching that video I wondered if the same thought had occurred to Boris; Apart from when he walks over to greet the random security-cleared Boris fan who they happen to run into he tries to stand as close to Zelenskyy as possible...
    I imagine that he was rather nervous, to put it mildly. Probably wearing a Kevlar vest under that suit as well.

    Serious guts on display from both leaders.
    Zelensky is rather more svelte.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062

    Scottish Labour have been very shrewd in how they have played things.

    I need to look at the seats again but surely they could pickup 7 or so seats at a GE.

    Every seat makes it easier for Starmer to ignore the SNP. I think the magic number for him is 300 seats or more.

    Dream on I am afraid
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,151
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sophie Raworth informed this morning by Ukraine's chief diplomatic advisor that the President of Ukraine issued the invite to Boris which he accepted

    Video of his train journey

    Boris Johnson on Ukrainian train

    https://news.sky.com/video/share-12586946

    Ah, so the official narrative is a train from Poland to Kiev, obviously not released until well after he had left the country.

    If that’s the VIP corridor, it’s sadly an easy target for a team of Russian special forces.
    I'm not saying the Russians are totally sane but if a NATO head of state got assassinated that would likely work out much better for Zelenskyy than Putin.

    Watching that video I wondered if the same thought had occurred to Boris; Apart from when he walks over to greet the random security-cleared Boris fan who they happen to run into he tries to stand as close to Zelenskyy as possible...
    I imagine that he was rather nervous, to put it mildly. Probably wearing a Kevlar vest under that suit as well.

    Serious guts on display from both leaders.
    Yeah, anyhow the Ukrainians seem happy with the footage so it looks like a job well done.

    Sending Biden to do that is probably a bit too risky but Biden should send Kamala over, she either enhances her stature or gets herself blown up and either of those would be helpful to the Dems.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062
    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    I think StuartDickson is right about sense of general malaise being key. Hard to quantify, but vital.

    The malaise is not exactly restricted to the UK
    Leading the pack by a country mile though
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    IshmaelZ said:

    How has Sunak not resigned yet?

    He spent the first 19 months of being Chancellor as a permanent resident of another country.

    Hard to think of many large conflicts of interest.

    How has the Ministerial Code allowed this.

    It is fun to point at him and laugh, but - he was obviously not in practice resident anywhere other than the UK; he can say his intentions had evolved since he got the green card - which they obviously had; and unfortunate oversight but he was busy being CotE during Covid

    Politically he has to go before the budget, because his stock is so low that a budget from him, even one which made Maynard Keynes look innumerate, is not sellable. New CotE needs a good run up, budget is end October. sunak will be shuffled out early summer to spend more time with his investments.
    We've been here before though, haven't we? The ones who wanted to get rid of Boris but though ah ha we can wait til May and use the timing to our own advantage!

    And then events happen.

    If someone is ill-suited for the job, ditch them. Don't wait.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,047
    IshmaelZ said:

    How has Sunak not resigned yet?

    He spent the first 19 months of being Chancellor as a permanent resident of another country.

    Hard to think of many large conflicts of interest.

    How has the Ministerial Code allowed this.

    It is fun to point at him and laugh, but - he was obviously not in practice resident anywhere other than the UK; he can say his intentions had evolved since he got the green card - which they obviously had; and unfortunate oversight but he was busy being CotE during Covid

    Politically he has to go before the budget, because his stock is so low that a budget from him, even one which made Maynard Keynes look innumerate, is not sellable. New CotE needs a good run up, budget is end October. sunak will be shuffled out early summer to spend more time with his investments.
    One would have hoped that being an MP would have meant a commitment to the Uk for at least 5 years. And, given the seat he held, some time longer.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941

    Sean_F said:

    Sickening that as Putin inflicts brutal genocide on the Ukrainian people one of his avowed supporters could soon become President of France in a free and fair election. I think too much of the French to believe it will happen, but even that it could is horrific.

    I think it's unlikely, but I do expect her to win 40-45%.
    In the end most people don't vote on foreign policy, especially as even extreme politicians make a token effort to distance themselves from their dodgy opinions. Le Pen's campaign worked closely with Russia and she featured a meeting with Putin in pre-campaign literature, but she's keeping her head down on it now and unlike Zemmour is fine with looking after Ukrainian refugees. If you're thinking of voting for her because (say) you think the cost of living is soaring and Macron is smug and uncaring, you probably don't spend much time pondering exactly what Le Pen thinks about Ukraine.

    On topic, I think the main criticism which Starmer should use is that the Government is preoccupied with issues distant from everyday concerns - culture wars, Ukraine, rather than price rises, Covid resurgence, waiting lists. I don't think there's any reason to criticise Johnson from visiting Ukraine, which they clearly appreciate very much. But he needs to visit some UK hospitals and food banks too, and come back with new initiatives to help the position in both. Many people have the impression is that he's just not very interested in mundane stuff, and with Sunak preoccupied with personal issues the leadership just seems AWOL on everyday life.
    Foodbanks may get middle class leftists excited but they really aren't an issue to the 80%.

    Energy and housing are more relevant issues.
    A significant number of the 80% are in favour of food banks, and support more of them to help the less fortunate in society.

    But it’s not really salient for them, petrol prices and household energy bills are more salient issues.

    The government had better hope the prices of these are on the way back down before the next election, even if it’s obvious from the outside that we are seeing global disruption as the cause.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,252
    Nads having a normal one.
    Sadly this is in fact normal for the collagen saturated BJ groupie.


  • Options
    malcolmg said:

    Scottish Labour have been very shrewd in how they have played things.

    I need to look at the seats again but surely they could pickup 7 or so seats at a GE.

    Every seat makes it easier for Starmer to ignore the SNP. I think the magic number for him is 300 seats or more.

    Dream on I am afraid
    In a much better position than those ALBA bunch of freaks though who will be lucky to elect 1/2 councillors on May 5.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sophie Raworth informed this morning by Ukraine's chief diplomatic advisor that the President of Ukraine issued the invite to Boris which he accepted

    Video of his train journey

    Boris Johnson on Ukrainian train

    https://news.sky.com/video/share-12586946

    Ah, so the official narrative is a train from Poland to Kiev, obviously not released until well after he had left the country.

    If that’s the VIP corridor, it’s sadly an easy target for a team of Russian special forces.
    I'm not saying the Russians are totally sane but if a NATO head of state got assassinated that would likely work out much better for Zelenskyy than Putin.

    Watching that video I wondered if the same thought had occurred to Boris; Apart from when he walks over to greet the random security-cleared Boris fan who they happen to run into he tries to stand as close to Zelenskyy as possible...
    I imagine that he was rather nervous, to put it mildly. Probably wearing a Kevlar vest under that suit as well.

    Serious guts on display from both leaders.
    You are deluded, he would not hve been there if there was any danger.
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 18,701
    Sandpit said:

    Get in there! More weapons like that, please.
    Martlet not Starstreak, apparently:
    https://twitter.com/Gabriel64869839/status/1513074787253473283
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,205
    On topic, COVID and NHS waiting lists won’t matter one bit.

    “Will I and my children/grandchildren be better off under Labour?”

    That’s the key question. I have no idea how the politicians will play it and how the public will react.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062
    Sandpit said:

    How has Sunak not resigned yet?

    He spent the first 19 months of being Chancellor as a permanent resident of another country.

    Hard to think of many large conflicts of interest.

    How has the Ministerial Code allowed this.

    Rules, my dear chap, are for other people. Not for those at the top of the Conservative party.

    I wonder what would have happened if Chris Huhne had been a senior Conservative minister instead of a LibDem one.
    He’d have still ended up in prison. His problem was domestic rather than political.

    If you’re going to have your wife lie to a court for you, don’t cheat on her.
    He would never have seen the inside of a court more like.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,130

    Interesting thread:

    What one picture might be able to tell us about the upcoming Russian attempt to 'fix' the Donbas. This was tweeted by @JackDetsch this morning and its fascinating for showing a few things about this war and how its developing.

    https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1513047743912202246

    With a nice coda:

    @Liveuamap
    Kharkiv region: Ukrainian military destroyed big Russian military column on the way to Izyum


    https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1513067832531169281
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,792
    No detail, but encouraging, Izyum being a key contested point in the centre of the war front in the east.

    https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1513088196577484801
    The 🇺🇦Ukrainian military destroyed a 🇷🇺Russian convoy that headed towards the city of Izyum in Kharkiv Oblast - Kharkiv Regional Adm. Head Oleh Synehubov https://t.me/pryamiy/26643
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    MattW said:

    Sandpit said:

    Get in there! More weapons like that, please.
    Martlet not Starstreak, apparently:
    https://twitter.com/Gabriel64869839/status/1513074787253473283
    More of them too! I’m sure they’re all welcomed by the Ukranians.
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    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,842
    tlg86 said:

    On topic, COVID and NHS waiting lists won’t matter one bit.

    “Will I and my children/grandchildren be better off under Labour?”

    That’s the key question. I have no idea how the politicians will play it and how the public will react.

    Grandchildren? That's a laugh when the client state voters put in place a government that repeatedly raise costs and taxes on the young and triple lock in their pensions. +2.5% for national insurance whilst promising to reduce income tax says it all.
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    MattWMattW Posts: 18,701
    MattW said:

    Sandpit said:

    Get in there! More weapons like that, please.
    Martlet not Starstreak, apparently:
    https://twitter.com/Gabriel64869839/status/1513074787253473283
    (Martlet could also be the surface to sea capability that has been hinted at if this is true, but only for small boats due to small warhead.)
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062

    malcolmg said:

    Scottish Labour have been very shrewd in how they have played things.

    I need to look at the seats again but surely they could pickup 7 or so seats at a GE.

    Every seat makes it easier for Starmer to ignore the SNP. I think the magic number for him is 300 seats or more.

    Dream on I am afraid
    In a much better position than those ALBA bunch of freaks though who will be lucky to elect 1/2 councillors on May 5.
    Hey arsehole.....

  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,252
    Nigelb said:

    malcolmg said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sophie Raworth informed this morning by Ukraine's chief diplomatic advisor that the President of Ukraine issued the invite to Boris which he accepted

    Video of his train journey

    Boris Johnson on Ukrainian train

    https://news.sky.com/video/share-12586946

    Ah, so the official narrative is a train from Poland to Kiev, obviously not released until well after he had left the country.

    If that’s the VIP corridor, it’s sadly an easy target for a team of Russian special forces.
    I'm not saying the Russians are totally sane but if a NATO head of state got assassinated that would likely work out much better for Zelenskyy than Putin.

    Watching that video I wondered if the same thought had occurred to Boris; Apart from when he walks over to greet the random security-cleared Boris fan who they happen to run into he tries to stand as close to Zelenskyy as possible...
    I imagine that he was rather nervous, to put it mildly. Probably wearing a Kevlar vest under that suit as well.

    Serious guts on display from both leaders.
    You are deluded, he would not hve been there if there was any danger.
    While the city is considerably safer than when under siege, it’s not safe.
    I don’t know why folk are arguing about this from a partisan point of view (which seems to be most expressing an opinion either way).

    I’m quite happy to give the PM some credit over Ukraine, and vote aghast him at the next election. Trying to find criticisms for the sake of it is a waste of effort.
    Your autocorrect appears to have political opinions..
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    The Times has some new polling from @IpsosUK:

    Is Sunak doing a good or bad job?

    Good: 30% (-2)
    Bad: 37% (+4)

    Trust to reduce cost of living:

    Lab: 43% (+3)
    Con: 25% (-1)

    Changes with 24-25 March, not sure when the new fieldwork was (may be before non-dom story).

    And this is why Labour will remain ahead and the lead will increase
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,563

    Off topic, I went round Charleston (https://www.charleston.org.uk/) with a friend yesterday and picked up a book which is focused on the people in the Bloomsbury Group more than the paintings and sculptures, amazing though some of them are. The sense of uninhibited curiosity and zeal to break boundaries is overpowering and mostly admirable, though some details gave me pause. One of the group, looking at a baby, says "I'm going to marry her when she grows up", and as the baby goes into her teens he starts asking her, and after several refusals she finally agrees at age 17 - and they have an apparently happy marriage. Euuu, not sure about any of that.

    But the other thing is that they don't sound all that nice - to each other or to people outside the group. They are so busy breaking taboos and and creating that they seemingly don't have time for ordinary love and kindness. Or did they, and it just hasn't caught the eye of biographers as much as the art and the ideas? Do others here know more?

    You are far from the first to find that there was an element in the intellectual gatherings of the nineteenth and early twentieth century (at least) that is rather self obsessed and rather lacking in compassion. The later often provides an interesting contrast to their apparent politics.

    This lack of humanity can also be observed in the vaporings of some factions in what led to the French Revolution. And, indeed, the Russian Revolution....
This discussion has been closed.