but that is also a very creditable Con performance.
In a West Midlands seat where tories are supposed to be at their best, which was the biggest LEAVE seat in the region (63% to 36%), I don't think a 4.5% swing to Labour is remotely creditable.
Labour GE victory nailed on!
Minority Lab government with Lab on 295, SNP on 55, LD on 19, Con on 257 on this projection. Seat by seat projection map, not sure on which boundaries though.
but that is also a very creditable Con performance.
In a West Midlands seat where tories are supposed to be at their best, which was the biggest LEAVE seat in the region (63% to 36%), I don't think a 4.5% swing to Labour is remotely creditable.
Interesting R4 interview with citizen of “occupied” Ukrainian city Kherson - went out for a walk, apart from a few military vehicles didn’t see any Russian soldiers. Convinced Russian occupation will be short lived.
Russia is starting to roll out blocks for Apple and Google mobile app stores, Facebook, Twitter and a variety of foreign media sites. Blocking is not yet fully effective but I am sure they will figure it out…
Eighth in my series of weekly threads on French presidential polls. With 37 days to Round 1, the Ukraine war has tipped the race decisively in @EmmanuelMacron favour. The President has risen in all polls. The Putin-loving far right candidate, @ZemmourEric is falling fast 1/
SUMMARY: Macron is at highest level for a year. Reading between lines, he is taking votes from Pécresse, who is still falling, despite reclaiming some votes from Zemmour. Le Pen, despite her own Putin baggage, is reclaiming votes from EZ (who once called for a “French Putin”) 11/
Looks like Biden and Johnson spoke to Zelenskyy while it was ongoing, for now it looks like any serious threat of a meltdown has been averted. UNSC meeting in the coming hours.
Interesting that Zelenskyy always seems to phone Boris.
Think you are dreaming , it will be fatso phoning him trying to get his big mush public and get awaty from the fact that he is a lying cheating crooked no user.
Yeah, Zelenshky phones everyone.
Johnson doesn't come out of this well, especially given the stinking Putin dirty money sloshing around in tory coffers. No western leader comes out of this well, with the possible exception of Ursula von der Leyen and Olaf Scholz by virtue of the fact that they have actually moved their positions and changed according to Putin's madness.
But really this is an abject and utter failure of the west and by the west.
Nope. This is an utter failure of Putin, and by Putin.
The West, let by the UK and US, has prepared well and responded admirably.
And when you say 'advance' you probably didn't get an actual Advance fare.
£96 for that journey is ridiculous. I'm sorry for you. That sucks.
Luckily my employer is paying but good grief. Would cost £20-£30 in petrol tops to get there.
I also note the train is fairly empty. Wonder why
It's another of the many reasons I may move abroad. The train fares in the UK are ridiculously expensive. £96 for your journey of, what, 90 miles. That's awful.
I had a look on Thetrainline.com and 96 quid is the price of a walkup fare with an open return for 1 month.
but that is also a very creditable Con performance.
In a West Midlands seat where tories are supposed to be at their best, which was the biggest LEAVE seat in the region (63% to 36%), I don't think a 4.5% swing to Labour is remotely creditable.
Labour GE victory nailed on!
Minority Lab government with Lab on 295, SNP on 55, LD on 19, Con on 257 on this projection. Seat by seat projection map, not sure on which boundaries though.
A solid but unspectacular result for Lab in Erdington.
They got the job done. That is all they needed to do.
There were some of the same ingredients as Hartlepool; had this by-election been then, the dynamics of Con+BXP coalescing whilst a far-left wedge peeled off Lab, Labour's bums would have been squeaky. (See also: Batley and Spen).
As it is, Labour did OK, and the question is whether OK is good enough. Still need a tricky Conservative defence.
Not much sign of mass rallying to the flag, though, which is probably fair.
Wow, the propoganda machine will be able to say it’s not gone down for another few days.
(The crash, when the markets finally reopen, is going to be absolutely epic).
I wonder why they’ve chosen Wednesday? Perhaps “someone” thinks matters will be resolved by then…..According to the original plan it will all be over by Sunday….
Russia is starting to roll out blocks for Apple and Google mobile app stores, Facebook, Twitter and a variety of foreign media sites. Blocking is not yet fully effective but I am sure they will figure it out…
Russia is starting to roll out blocks for Apple and Google mobile app stores, Facebook, Twitter and a variety of foreign media sites. Blocking is not yet fully effective but I am sure they will figure it out…
FYI - Do we know why Liz Truss was announcing financial sanctions before the Treasury did?
Normally (and for ethical and good governance reasons) the Office of Financial Sanctions Implementation (OFSI) announces these things then the Treasury.
OFSI is part of the Treasury.
If Liz Truss is going to start freelancing these things then I may have to use some whistleblower regulations and start asking questions about potential insider trading issues.
I mean, I only do this as part of my day job.
Next, Liz to announce the good bits of the budget before Rishi Sunak announces them to the House.
Going back to the Gavin Williamson gong, there were always comments that he was unsackable because as Chief Whip he acquired all the usual dirt that sits locked up in filing cabinets at 12 Downing Street. And then mysteriously he gets knighted!
Treat this as collateral damage in wallpapergate or one of the various other Tory scandals. A disastrous cabinet minister twice sacked for being a cretin, there is no way at all that he deserves a gong. So what is the motivation behind offering him one?
Remember that the primary motivation for all that Boris Johnson says and does is does this benefit me?
but that is also a very creditable Con performance.
In a West Midlands seat where tories are supposed to be at their best, which was the biggest LEAVE seat in the region (63% to 36%), I don't think a 4.5% swing to Labour is remotely creditable.
Labour GE victory nailed on!
Minority Lab government with Lab on 295, SNP on 55, LD on 19, Con on 257 on this projection. Seat by seat projection map, not sure on which boundaries though.
A solid but unspectacular result for Lab in Erdington.
They got the job done. That is all they needed to do.
There were some of the same ingredients as Hartlepool; had this by-election been then, the dynamics of Con+BXP coalescing whilst a far-left wedge peeled off Lab, Labour's bums would have been squeaky. (See also: Batley and Spen).
As it is, Labour did OK, and the question is whether OK is good enough. Still need a tricky Conservative defence.
Not much sign of mass rallying to the flag, though, which is probably fair.
Mid term, with a, er, problematic PM still in Downing Street. And a 78 seat majority to overturn. Lot of first term incumbency for MPs working their seats hard.
Sorry to break it to you, but there's still an uphill battle to beat the Tories....
but that is also a very creditable Con performance.
In a West Midlands seat where tories are supposed to be at their best, which was the biggest LEAVE seat in the region (63% to 36%), I don't think a 4.5% swing to Labour is remotely creditable.
Labour GE victory nailed on!
Minority Lab government with Lab on 295, SNP on 55, LD on 19, Con on 257 on this projection. Seat by seat projection map, not sure on which boundaries though.
A solid but unspectacular result for Lab in Erdington.
They got the job done. That is all they needed to do.
There were some of the same ingredients as Hartlepool; had this by-election been then, the dynamics of Con+BXP coalescing whilst a far-left wedge peeled off Lab, Labour's bums would have been squeaky. (See also: Batley and Spen).
As it is, Labour did OK, and the question is whether OK is good enough. Still need a tricky Conservative defence.
Not much sign of mass rallying to the flag, though, which is probably fair.
I think both Labour (hold in a low turnout bye-election) and the Conservatives (reasonable mid-term result) can take comfort from the result - looks like the obituaries for “two party politics” were premature.
but that is also a very creditable Con performance.
In a West Midlands seat where tories are supposed to be at their best, which was the biggest LEAVE seat in the region (63% to 36%), I don't think a 4.5% swing to Labour is remotely creditable.
Labour GE victory nailed on!
Minority Lab government with Lab on 295, SNP on 55, LD on 19, Con on 257 on this projection. Seat by seat projection map, not sure on which boundaries though.
A solid but unspectacular result for Lab in Erdington.
They got the job done. That is all they needed to do.
There were some of the same ingredients as Hartlepool; had this by-election been then, the dynamics of Con+BXP coalescing whilst a far-left wedge peeled off Lab, Labour's bums would have been squeaky. (See also: Batley and Spen).
As it is, Labour did OK, and the question is whether OK is good enough. Still need a tricky Conservative defence.
Not much sign of mass rallying to the flag, though, which is probably fair.
Mid term, with a, er, problematic PM still in Downing Street. And a 78 seat majority to overturn. Lot of first term incumbency for MPs working their seats hard.
Sorry to break it to you, but there's still an uphill battle to beat the Tories....
A Lab majority not likely, but the Tories need to fill their boots quickly because in two years they are going to be in opposition.
As Russia is trying to cut off the flow of information in Ukraine by attacking its communications infrastructure, the British news outlet BBC is revisiting a broadcasting tactic popularized during World War II: shortwave radio.
NY Times
Fuck you Nadine Dorries.
I’ve got a decent quality shortwave radio, with battery supply periodically refreshed. In the case of war, or significant disruption of infrastructure by hostile power (more likely), it is probably the only robust communication reception technology.
We frequently receive messages from the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency (MSB) with quite a long list of things to have at home. The government clearly considers that significant disruption to food, water, telecommunications and electricity supply is fairly likely within the foreseeable future. It is one reason why I will definitely not be buying two electric cars: one of them must have an internal combustion engine. (Picking up our first ever EV later this morning. Yippee!)
Yes, although we get messages from them in a wide range of marketing channels and methods.
Note the last one: full tank. I never let my fuel gauge go below 50%. I swing in to a pump when it gets close. (The kids of course take full advantage and always return the bloody cars empty! 😄 I still love them.)
FYI - Do we know why Liz Truss was announcing financial sanctions before the Treasury did?
Normally (and for ethical and good governance reasons) the Office of Financial Sanctions Implementation (OFSI) announces these things then the Treasury.
OFSI is part of the Treasury.
If Liz Truss is going to start freelancing these things then I may have to use some whistleblower regulations and start asking questions about potential insider trading issues.
I mean, I only do this as part of my day job.
Next, Liz to announce the good bits of the budget before Rishi Sunak announces them to the House.
The 2018 Sanctions Act allows an “appropriate minister” to make sanctions regulations, which take the form of secondary legislation. An “appropriate minister” is defined as a secretary of state (usually the secretary of state for foreign, commonwealth and development affairs) or a Treasury minister.
but that is also a very creditable Con performance.
In a West Midlands seat where tories are supposed to be at their best, which was the biggest LEAVE seat in the region (63% to 36%), I don't think a 4.5% swing to Labour is remotely creditable.
Labour GE victory nailed on!
Minority Lab government with Lab on 295, SNP on 55, LD on 19, Con on 257 on this projection. Seat by seat projection map, not sure on which boundaries though.
A solid but unspectacular result for Lab in Erdington.
They got the job done. That is all they needed to do.
There were some of the same ingredients as Hartlepool; had this by-election been then, the dynamics of Con+BXP coalescing whilst a far-left wedge peeled off Lab, Labour's bums would have been squeaky. (See also: Batley and Spen).
As it is, Labour did OK, and the question is whether OK is good enough. Still need a tricky Conservative defence.
Not much sign of mass rallying to the flag, though, which is probably fair.
I think both Labour (hold in a low turnout bye-election) and the Conservatives (reasonable mid-term result) can take comfort from the result - looks like the obituaries for “two party politics” were premature.
I think we're back to the 1997 situation. Tory vs Best Positioned Not Tory. And I'm pretty happy with that.
Russia is starting to roll out blocks for Apple and Google mobile app stores, Facebook, Twitter and a variety of foreign media sites. Blocking is not yet fully effective but I am sure they will figure it out…
LOL. Apple and Google already blocked app stores in Russia, because they can’t work with Russian credit cards.
They really don’t have the means and expertise to do what the Chinese have spent decades honing, and most blocks are trivially bypassed anyway.
Shows the direction of intent though. Putin's mad war has been a disaster at home and the only way he can keep a lid and hold onto power is to shut RU off from the world, lock it down in martial law, arrest every second person and basically become N Korea.
Russia is starting to roll out blocks for Apple and Google mobile app stores, Facebook, Twitter and a variety of foreign media sites. Blocking is not yet fully effective but I am sure they will figure it out…
I've got nearly 15 years worth of email on yandex. Am I about to get done up the bugle?
Briefcase wankers report in and tell me.
Get a software mail client on your computer (Thunderbird, Outlook, Apple Mail etc) and download all your mail before it gets cut off.
Spasibo, mne pryatno. I've just had a look and it's 18 years! The first emails were on my original mail.ru account from 2004 and then later migrated to Yandex. I've got Thunderbird raging with the download now.
I previously didn't give a fuck but now that the war has come home, I'm picking a side. 🇺🇦
As Russia is trying to cut off the flow of information in Ukraine by attacking its communications infrastructure, the British news outlet BBC is revisiting a broadcasting tactic popularized during World War II: shortwave radio.
NY Times
Fuck you Nadine Dorries.
I’ve got a decent quality shortwave radio, with battery supply periodically refreshed. In the case of war, or significant disruption of infrastructure by hostile power (more likely), it is probably the only robust communication reception technology.
I have a tinfoil hat
Do you have a wee stockpile at home Bev?
Bottled water? A generator? Creme eggs?
I do not have creme eggs, but we DO have a generator
The most satisfying part of the Erdington BE was a pretty poor showing from Nellist.
Indeed. The far left and far right both lost their deposits.
Hopefully one of the few good things to come out of this conflict, is the need to moderate the political discourse, step back from more extreme views and tolerate the opinions of others.
Russia is starting to roll out blocks for Apple and Google mobile app stores, Facebook, Twitter and a variety of foreign media sites. Blocking is not yet fully effective but I am sure they will figure it out…
LOL. Apple and Google already blocked app stores in Russia, because they can’t work with Russian credit cards.
They really don’t have the means and expertise to do what the Chinese have spent decades honing, and most blocks are trivially bypassed anyway.
Shows the direction of intent though. Putin's mad war has been a disaster at home and the only way he can keep a lid and hold onto power is to shut RU off from the world, lock it down in martial law, arrest every second person and basically become N Korea.
FYI - Do we know why Liz Truss was announcing financial sanctions before the Treasury did?
Normally (and for ethical and good governance reasons) the Office of Financial Sanctions Implementation (OFSI) announces these things then the Treasury.
OFSI is part of the Treasury.
If Liz Truss is going to start freelancing these things then I may have to use some whistleblower regulations and start asking questions about potential insider trading issues.
I mean, I only do this as part of my day job.
Next, Liz to announce the good bits of the budget before Rishi Sunak announces them to the House.
The 2018 Sanctions Act allows an “appropriate minister” to make sanctions regulations, which take the form of secondary legislation. An “appropriate minister” is defined as a secretary of state (usually the secretary of state for foreign, commonwealth and development affairs) or a Treasury minister.
Your missing the point, normally those of us in the regulation and compliance departments at financial institutions get a notice about who is now being sanctioned from OFSI before any minister publicly announces it.
That did not happen yesterday.
The ideal scenario is
1) HMG decides to places a company or person on the sanctions list
2) Tells the banks who then take appropriate steps
3) Publicly announce it
Thanks to Liz, she bypassed step 2 and jumped to step 3, which would allow the person or company to start transferring money out before the banks could stop them.
I think we should really see Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine as the latest development in the war that started eight years ago when Russia invaded and occupied the Dombas region and annexed Crimea. 1/
Russia and its supporters are creating a narrative that since 2014, the Ukrainian military has killed 14,000 "ethnic Russians" in Dombas. This is the reason for Russia's "genocide" claim. 2/….
In short, as far as I can see, Russia's claim of "genocide" against the Ukrainian government is entirely fabricated. /10
As Russia is trying to cut off the flow of information in Ukraine by attacking its communications infrastructure, the British news outlet BBC is revisiting a broadcasting tactic popularized during World War II: shortwave radio.
NY Times
Fuck you Nadine Dorries.
I’ve got a decent quality shortwave radio, with battery supply periodically refreshed. In the case of war, or significant disruption of infrastructure by hostile power (more likely), it is probably the only robust communication reception technology.
We frequently receive messages from the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency (MSB) with quite a long list of things to have at home. The government clearly considers that significant disruption to food, water, telecommunications and electricity supply is fairly likely within the foreseeable future. It is one reason why I will definitely not be buying two electric cars: one of them must have an internal combustion engine. (Picking up our first ever EV later this morning. Yippee!)
Yes, although we get messages from them in a wide range of marketing channels and methods.
Note the last one: full tank. I never let my fuel gauge go below 50%. I swing in to a pump when it gets close. (The kids of course take full advantage and always return the bloody cars empty! 😄 I still love them.)
Thanks.
The previous page was interesting - intrigued by "Blueberry and Rosehip Soup".
A cold and clear day in Tallinn. Borders are still very busy. Plenty of Russian citizens leaving, with rumours of a second "Great Terror". Apparently thousands in jail and round ups underway in many places.
Meanwhile the official sanctions against Russia are being joined by a private sector boycott. This has already happend here in Estonia, but when every international firm in the world is severing ties, the isolation of the Kremlin is on a scale not seen in forty years. The strength of feeling in the West has not lifted the sombre atmosphere here, but there is a certain grim satisfaction: "we told you so".
By some strange and bitter irony, at least for the moment, Estonia is now safer than for many years: the nearest Russian tank columns are over a thousand miles away and Tallinn is too close to St. Petersburg for a nuclear strike to be safe for Russia. Meanwhile, the professional, well funded and well equipped Estonian defence force has been joined by several thousands of British and other NATO troops with full equipment and backed by a much larger air squadron. If Russia does want to come here, then she will have to disengage in Ukraine, and that is not an immediate prospect.
The shocking scenes in Zaporizhya are underlining that we are not dealing with a world class army, but rather an Iraqi style mixture. Friends in Kyiv saying that officers have been systematically puncturing tyres and immobilising vehilces. I don´t know how much of this is hope or wishful thinking, but it is a fact that the column has not moved forward in the North, and even in the South the "occupation" is far from complete. Ukrainian units, tired, low on supplies themselves, but still with high morale, are surviving the onslaught and regrouping. More kit is coming, The ferocity and brutality of the Russian attack is outraging the whole world.
The Western intelligence assessment is that the war could go on for some time. That Putin intends to seize the whole country. I have no doubt that were his army to press an advantage then they can certainly make some progress, but I think it just as likely that there is a stalemate. Then the question of Belarus comes into the equation. Many of the soldiers took part in the demonstrations against Lukashenka, it is a very open question how reliable these troops are.
So, we are on a knife edge between hope and despair, but Russia seems heading into darkness. Our fear is that this ends with a Russian civil war. The attack on Ukraine is certainly a fratricidal disaster. Putin´s Götterdammerung may engulf his whole country.
Wow, the propoganda machine will be able to say it’s not gone down for another few days.
(The crash, when the markets finally reopen, is going to be absolutely epic).
I wonder why they’ve chosen Wednesday? Perhaps “someone” thinks matters will be resolved by then…..According to the original plan it will all be over by Sunday….
Russia is starting to roll out blocks for Apple and Google mobile app stores, Facebook, Twitter and a variety of foreign media sites. Blocking is not yet fully effective but I am sure they will figure it out…
I've got nearly 15 years worth of email on yandex. Am I about to get done up the bugle?
Briefcase wankers report in and tell me.
Get a software mail client on your computer (Thunderbird, Outlook, Apple Mail etc) and download all your mail before it gets cut off.
Spasibo, mne pryatno. I've just had a look and it's 18 years! The first emails were on my original mail.ru account from 2004 and then later migrated to Yandex. I've got Thunderbird raging with the download now.
I previously didn't give a fuck but now that the war has come home, I'm picking a side. 🇺🇦
If @NickPalmer is about, great poll for the Swedish Social Democrats tonight. In addition to the headline numbers, apparently the party are doing even better among first-time voters.
S 32 +3 V 9 -1 MP 3 nc
Red-Green total 44 +2 (Although note Greens under 4% threshold)
M 21 +1 SD 19 nc KD 5 nc
Conservative total 45 +1
C 7 -1 L 2 -1
Liberals (uncommitted to either bloc) 9 -2 (Although Liberals look a dead cert to leave parliament)
The GE is in September.
For what it’s worth, IMHO more likely the Centre Party will support the Reds than the Blues.
I just tried to read up on the state of their Parliament and politics. I failed! That’s going to take some deeper reading. No lazy U.K. political parallels to be made it seems.
It’s really not that hard. Strict PR system, with 4% threshold to get into parliament. The main thing to get your head around is that all 8 of the parliamentary parties are “left” in a global context, even the supposed “conservatives”.
Currently 8 parliamentary parties:
Red-Green bloc:
S Social Democrats, think centrist/sensible Labour (currently the sole governing party)
V Left Party, formerly called the Communists, far-left
MP Greens, what it says on the tin, pretty leftist
Conservative bloc:
M Moderates, think Tory wets
KD Christian Democrats, ultra-liberal Jesus fans when compared to every other Christian political movement
SD Sweden Democrats, think BNP-lite/UKIP/Farage, but never talk about Europe; bang on about immigration literally non-stop; other policies pretty left wing
Stuck in the middle:
C Centre Party, formerly Agrarians, pro small business liberals with a greenish tinge
L Liberals, classic urban liberal party, soon to be waving Hej då to parliamentary life
Thank you. I didn’t want to be annoying and ask. That’s really interesting.
My pleasure. I’m not completely useless.
If anyone is interested in the upcoming Swedish GE (September) I can try to post occasional updates.
Good morning everybody. In a small snippet of, personally anyway, good news, turned on the TV to see a blue-tit working away in our 'nest-cammed' nest-box. A sign of spring! And, perchance, better times to come!
Russia just passed a new bill making it a criminal offence punishable with a 15 year prison sentence if any journalist in Russia spreads false information about the military or the campaign in Ukraine and could be used against foreign journalists
A cold and clear day in Tallinn. Borders are still very busy. Plenty of Russian citizens leaving, with rumours of a second "Great Terror". Apparently thousands in jail and round ups underway in many places.
Meanwhile the official sanctions against Russia are being joined by a private sector boycott. This has already happend here in Estonia, but when every international firm in the world is severing ties, the isolation of the Kremlin is on a scale not seen in forty years. The strength of feeling in the West has not lifted the sombre atmosphere here, but there is a certain grim satisfaction: "we told you so".
By some strange and bitter irony, at least for the moment, Estonia is now safer than for many years: the nearest Russian tank columns are over a thousand miles away and Tallinn is too close to St. Petersburg for a nuclear strike to be safe for Russia. Meanwhile, the professional, well funded and well equipped Estonian defence force has been joined by several thousands of British and other NATO troops with full equipment and backed by a much larger air squadron. If Russia does want to come here, then she will have to disengage in Ukraine, and that is not an immediate prospect.
The shocking scenes in Zaporizhya are underlining that we are not dealing with a world class army, but rather an Iraqi style mixture. Friends in Kyiv saying that officers have been systematically puncturing tyres and immobilising vehilces. I don´t know how much of this is hope or wishful thinking, but it is a fact that the column has not moved forward in the North, and even in the South the "occupation" is far from complete. Ukrainian units, tired, low on supplies themselves, but still with high morale, are surviving the onslaught and regrouping. More kit is coming, The ferocity and brutality of the Russian attack is outraging the whole world.
The Western intelligence assessment is that the war could go on for some time. That Putin intends to seize the whole country. I have no doubt that were his army to press an advantage then they can certainly make some progress, but I think it just as likely that there is a stalemate. Then the question of Belarus comes into the equation. Many of the soldiers took part in the demonstrations against Lukashenka, it is a very open question how reliable these troops are.
So, we are on a knife edge between hope and despair, but Russia seems heading into darkness. Our fear is that this ends with a Russian civil war. The attack on Ukraine is certainly a fratricidal disaster. Putin´s Götterdammerung may engulf his whole country.
Thanks once again for the insightful post @Cicero - keep strong!
Wow, the propoganda machine will be able to say it’s not gone down for another few days.
(The crash, when the markets finally reopen, is going to be absolutely epic).
I wonder why they’ve chosen Wednesday? Perhaps “someone” thinks matters will be resolved by then…..According to the original plan it will all be over by Sunday….
Wednesday 8th March 2023 that is.
My guess is they are trying to find a way to reopen with 'fake' prices which remain fake. A complete mirage of a stock exchange. Anyone who discusses the real prices will be sent to prison.
Any valuations we see next week, if that even happens, will not be genuine would be my guess.
but that is also a very creditable Con performance.
In a West Midlands seat where tories are supposed to be at their best, which was the biggest LEAVE seat in the region (63% to 36%), I don't think a 4.5% swing to Labour is remotely creditable.
Labour GE victory nailed on!
Minority Lab government with Lab on 295, SNP on 55, LD on 19, Con on 257 on this projection. Seat by seat projection map, not sure on which boundaries though.
A solid but unspectacular result for Lab in Erdington.
They got the job done. That is all they needed to do.
There were some of the same ingredients as Hartlepool; had this by-election been then, the dynamics of Con+BXP coalescing whilst a far-left wedge peeled off Lab, Labour's bums would have been squeaky. (See also: Batley and Spen).
As it is, Labour did OK, and the question is whether OK is good enough. Still need a tricky Conservative defence.
Not much sign of mass rallying to the flag, though, which is probably fair.
Mid term, with a, er, problematic PM still in Downing Street. And a 78 seat majority to overturn. Lot of first term incumbency for MPs working their seats hard.
Sorry to break it to you, but there's still an uphill battle to beat the Tories....
Sure. Though if the public are fed up enough, a big majority is less of a protection than you might think; easy come, easy go. Macmillan's majority of 100 in 1959 didn't save the Conservatives in 1964.
And a Conservative defeat, let alone a Labour victory, is quite the ask, even from here.
But it's less of an ask than it seemed nine months ago.
Looks like Biden and Johnson spoke to Zelenskyy while it was ongoing, for now it looks like any serious threat of a meltdown has been averted. UNSC meeting in the coming hours.
Interesting that Zelenskyy always seems to phone Boris.
Think you are dreaming , it will be fatso phoning him trying to get his big mush public and get awaty from the fact that he is a lying cheating crooked no user.
Yeah, Zelenshky phones everyone.
Johnson doesn't come out of this well, especially given the stinking Putin dirty money sloshing around in tory coffers. No western leader comes out of this well, with the possible exception of Ursula von der Leyen and Olaf Scholz by virtue of the fact that they have actually moved their positions and changed according to Putin's madness.
But really this is an abject and utter failure of the west and by the west.
Nope. This is an utter failure of Putin, and by Putin.
The West, let by the UK and US, has prepared well and responded admirably.
Is it really admirable to stand by as a country gets pulverised ? I fully understand the arguments as to why we're not intervening directly (I've argued some of them myself), but admirable it is not.
And if we'd really prepared well, Ukraine would have had better air defence, and some anti ship missiles on the Black Sea coast.
We've not done nothing, but I'm not feeling very proud this morning.
I think we should really see Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine as the latest development in the war that started eight years ago when Russia invaded and occupied the Dombas region and annexed Crimea. 1/
Russia and its supporters are creating a narrative that since 2014, the Ukrainian military has killed 14,000 "ethnic Russians" in Dombas. This is the reason for Russia's "genocide" claim. 2/….
In short, as far as I can see, Russia's claim of "genocide" against the Ukrainian government is entirely fabricated. /10
As Russia is trying to cut off the flow of information in Ukraine by attacking its communications infrastructure, the British news outlet BBC is revisiting a broadcasting tactic popularized during World War II: shortwave radio.
NY Times
Fuck you Nadine Dorries.
I’ve got a decent quality shortwave radio, with battery supply periodically refreshed. In the case of war, or significant disruption of infrastructure by hostile power (more likely), it is probably the only robust communication reception technology.
We frequently receive messages from the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency (MSB) with quite a long list of things to have at home. The government clearly considers that significant disruption to food, water, telecommunications and electricity supply is fairly likely within the foreseeable future. It is one reason why I will definitely not be buying two electric cars: one of them must have an internal combustion engine. (Picking up our first ever EV later this morning. Yippee!)
Yes, although we get messages from them in a wide range of marketing channels and methods.
Note the last one: full tank. I never let my fuel gauge go below 50%. I swing in to a pump when it gets close. (The kids of course take full advantage and always return the bloody cars empty! 😄 I still love them.)
Thanks.
The previous page was interesting - intrigued by "Blueberry and Rosehip Soup".
Great stuff. Nipponsoppa (rosehip ”soup”, in reality very thick juice) is an absolute classic of Swedish husmanskost (everyday food). It is essential for long-distance ski events, eg Vasaloppet.
It’s funny how different nations go for different flavourings. Swedes for example love pear-flavoured everything (yoghurt, juice, milkshakes, sweeties etc etc etc), whereas in English speaking markets that doesn’t seem to be a biggie.
Only problem with rosehip and blaeberry soups are that they are full of sugar.
A cold and clear day in Tallinn. Borders are still very busy. Plenty of Russian citizens leaving, with rumours of a second "Great Terror". Apparently thousands in jail and round ups underway in many places.
Meanwhile the official sanctions against Russia are being joined by a private sector boycott. This has already happend here in Estonia, but when every international firm in the world is severing ties, the isolation of the Kremlin is on a scale not seen in forty years. The strength of feeling in the West has not lifted the sombre atmosphere here, but there is a certain grim satisfaction: "we told you so".
By some strange and bitter irony, at least for the moment, Estonia is now safer than for many years: the nearest Russian tank columns are over a thousand miles away and Tallinn is too close to St. Petersburg for a nuclear strike to be safe for Russia. Meanwhile, the professional, well funded and well equipped Estonian defence force has been joined by several thousands of British and other NATO troops with full equipment and backed by a much larger air squadron. If Russia does want to come here, then she will have to disengage in Ukraine, and that is not an immediate prospect.
The shocking scenes in Zaporizhya are underlining that we are not dealing with a world class army, but rather an Iraqi style mixture. Friends in Kyiv saying that officers have been systematically puncturing tyres and immobilising vehilces. I don´t know how much of this is hope or wishful thinking, but it is a fact that the column has not moved forward in the North, and even in the South the "occupation" is far from complete. Ukrainian units, tired, low on supplies themselves, but still with high morale, are surviving the onslaught and regrouping. More kit is coming, The ferocity and brutality of the Russian attack is outraging the whole world.
The Western intelligence assessment is that the war could go on for some time. That Putin intends to seize the whole country. I have no doubt that were his army to press an advantage then they can certainly make some progress, but I think it just as likely that there is a stalemate. Then the question of Belarus comes into the equation. Many of the soldiers took part in the demonstrations against Lukashenka, it is a very open question how reliable these troops are.
So, we are on a knife edge between hope and despair, but Russia seems heading into darkness. Our fear is that this ends with a Russian civil war. The attack on Ukraine is certainly a fratricidal disaster. Putin´s Götterdammerung may engulf his whole country.
Thanks. Keep these updates coming if you can. V informative.
Can Russia be turned into a giant N Korea-style prison camp with Putin as head guard in the modern and complex inter-related world?
Russia just passed a new bill making it a criminal offence punishable with a 15 year prison sentence if any journalist in Russia spreads false information about the military or the campaign in Ukraine and could be used against foreign journalists
And publishing the truth will be no defence in Putin's Russia.
If @NickPalmer is about, great poll for the Swedish Social Democrats tonight. In addition to the headline numbers, apparently the party are doing even better among first-time voters.
S 32 +3 V 9 -1 MP 3 nc
Red-Green total 44 +2 (Although note Greens under 4% threshold)
M 21 +1 SD 19 nc KD 5 nc
Conservative total 45 +1
C 7 -1 L 2 -1
Liberals (uncommitted to either bloc) 9 -2 (Although Liberals look a dead cert to leave parliament)
The GE is in September.
For what it’s worth, IMHO more likely the Centre Party will support the Reds than the Blues.
I just tried to read up on the state of their Parliament and politics. I failed! That’s going to take some deeper reading. No lazy U.K. political parallels to be made it seems.
It’s really not that hard. Strict PR system, with 4% threshold to get into parliament. The main thing to get your head around is that all 8 of the parliamentary parties are “left” in a global context, even the supposed “conservatives”.
Currently 8 parliamentary parties:
Red-Green bloc:
S Social Democrats, think centrist/sensible Labour (currently the sole governing party)
V Left Party, formerly called the Communists, far-left
MP Greens, what it says on the tin, pretty leftist
Conservative bloc:
M Moderates, think Tory wets
KD Christian Democrats, ultra-liberal Jesus fans when compared to every other Christian political movement
SD Sweden Democrats, think BNP-lite/UKIP/Farage, but never talk about Europe; bang on about immigration literally non-stop; other policies pretty left wing
Stuck in the middle:
C Centre Party, formerly Agrarians, pro small business liberals with a greenish tinge
L Liberals, classic urban liberal party, soon to be waving Hej då to parliamentary life
Thank you. I didn’t want to be annoying and ask. That’s really interesting.
My pleasure. I’m not completely useless.
If anyone is interested in the upcoming Swedish GE (September) I can try to post occasional updates.
Always interesting to hear about politics in other countries. A complete blind spot for the media here.
Good morning everybody. In a small snippet of, personally anyway, good news, turned on the TV to see a blue-tit working away in our 'nest-cammed' nest-box. A sign of spring! And, perchance, better times to come!
We had a blue tit and a robin competing on our bird seed feeders, and it seemed a million miles from the horrors Putin is inflicting on all of us
Russia is starting to roll out blocks for Apple and Google mobile app stores, Facebook, Twitter and a variety of foreign media sites. Blocking is not yet fully effective but I am sure they will figure it out…
I've got nearly 15 years worth of email on yandex. Am I about to get done up the bugle?
Briefcase wankers report in and tell me.
Get a software mail client on your computer (Thunderbird, Outlook, Apple Mail etc) and download all your mail before it gets cut off.
Spasibo, mne pryatno. I've just had a look and it's 18 years! The first emails were on my original mail.ru account from 2004 and then later migrated to Yandex. I've got Thunderbird raging with the download now.
I previously didn't give a fuck but now that the war has come home, I'm picking a side. 🇺🇦
How's Mrs Dura Ace taking it?
Very upset. Being far more sociable and charming than me she still has a lot of friends and colleagues in both Ukraine and Russia. Her friends tend toward the educated, liberal rather than gopnik so they are almost all vehemently anti-Putin but keep it on the down low.
The dentist who was her practice partner in Moscow moved to Kyiv about the time that we left Russia. She's completely disappeared this week so fuck knows what's happened to her.
On top of all that some bastard is using her dishwasher to remove road tar from a ZF HP8 transmission cooler.
A cold and clear day in Tallinn. Borders are still very busy. Plenty of Russian citizens leaving, with rumours of a second "Great Terror". Apparently thousands in jail and round ups underway in many places.
Meanwhile the official sanctions against Russia are being joined by a private sector boycott. This has already happend here in Estonia, but when every international firm in the world is severing ties, the isolation of the Kremlin is on a scale not seen in forty years. The strength of feeling in the West has not lifted the sombre atmosphere here, but there is a certain grim satisfaction: "we told you so".
By some strange and bitter irony, at least for the moment, Estonia is now safer than for many years: the nearest Russian tank columns are over a thousand miles away and Tallinn is too close to St. Petersburg for a nuclear strike to be safe for Russia. Meanwhile, the professional, well funded and well equipped Estonian defence force has been joined by several thousands of British and other NATO troops with full equipment and backed by a much larger air squadron. If Russia does want to come here, then she will have to disengage in Ukraine, and that is not an immediate prospect.
The shocking scenes in Zaporizhya are underlining that we are not dealing with a world class army, but rather an Iraqi style mixture. Friends in Kyiv saying that officers have been systematically puncturing tyres and immobilising vehilces. I don´t know how much of this is hope or wishful thinking, but it is a fact that the column has not moved forward in the North, and even in the South the "occupation" is far from complete. Ukrainian units, tired, low on supplies themselves, but still with high morale, are surviving the onslaught and regrouping. More kit is coming, The ferocity and brutality of the Russian attack is outraging the whole world.
The Western intelligence assessment is that the war could go on for some time. That Putin intends to seize the whole country. I have no doubt that were his army to press an advantage then they can certainly make some progress, but I think it just as likely that there is a stalemate. Then the question of Belarus comes into the equation. Many of the soldiers took part in the demonstrations against Lukashenka, it is a very open question how reliable these troops are.
So, we are on a knife edge between hope and despair, but Russia seems heading into darkness. Our fear is that this ends with a Russian civil war. The attack on Ukraine is certainly a fratricidal disaster. Putin´s Götterdammerung may engulf his whole country.
Thanks. Keep these updates coming if you can. V informative.
Can Russia be turned into a giant N Korea-style prison camp with Putin as head guard in the modern and complex inter-related world?
Seems we may find out sadly.
Accenture has shut its Russian business down so I would imagine now we will see all the consultancy, accountancy and investment banks follows (if they haven't already).
A cold and clear day in Tallinn. Borders are still very busy. Plenty of Russian citizens leaving, with rumours of a second "Great Terror". Apparently thousands in jail and round ups underway in many places.
Meanwhile the official sanctions against Russia are being joined by a private sector boycott. This has already happend here in Estonia, but when every international firm in the world is severing ties, the isolation of the Kremlin is on a scale not seen in forty years. The strength of feeling in the West has not lifted the sombre atmosphere here, but there is a certain grim satisfaction: "we told you so".
By some strange and bitter irony, at least for the moment, Estonia is now safer than for many years: the nearest Russian tank columns are over a thousand miles away and Tallinn is too close to St. Petersburg for a nuclear strike to be safe for Russia. Meanwhile, the professional, well funded and well equipped Estonian defence force has been joined by several thousands of British and other NATO troops with full equipment and backed by a much larger air squadron. If Russia does want to come here, then she will have to disengage in Ukraine, and that is not an immediate prospect.
The shocking scenes in Zaporizhya are underlining that we are not dealing with a world class army, but rather an Iraqi style mixture. Friends in Kyiv saying that officers have been systematically puncturing tyres and immobilising vehilces. I don´t know how much of this is hope or wishful thinking, but it is a fact that the column has not moved forward in the North, and even in the South the "occupation" is far from complete. Ukrainian units, tired, low on supplies themselves, but still with high morale, are surviving the onslaught and regrouping. More kit is coming, The ferocity and brutality of the Russian attack is outraging the whole world.
The Western intelligence assessment is that the war could go on for some time. That Putin intends to seize the whole country. I have no doubt that were his army to press an advantage then they can certainly make some progress, but I think it just as likely that there is a stalemate. Then the question of Belarus comes into the equation. Many of the soldiers took part in the demonstrations against Lukashenka, it is a very open question how reliable these troops are.
So, we are on a knife edge between hope and despair, but Russia seems heading into darkness. Our fear is that this ends with a Russian civil war. The attack on Ukraine is certainly a fratricidal disaster. Putin´s Götterdammerung may engulf his whole country.
Russia just passed a new bill making it a criminal offence punishable with a 15 year prison sentence if any journalist in Russia spreads false information about the military or the campaign in Ukraine and could be used against foreign journalists
And of course the Kremlin decides what’s false information . A very dark day for Russia. How safe is it now for foreign journalists to remain in the country .
Russia is starting to roll out blocks for Apple and Google mobile app stores, Facebook, Twitter and a variety of foreign media sites. Blocking is not yet fully effective but I am sure they will figure it out…
I've got nearly 15 years worth of email on yandex. Am I about to get done up the bugle?
Briefcase wankers report in and tell me.
Get a software mail client on your computer (Thunderbird, Outlook, Apple Mail etc) and download all your mail before it gets cut off.
Spasibo, mne pryatno. I've just had a look and it's 18 years! The first emails were on my original mail.ru account from 2004 and then later migrated to Yandex. I've got Thunderbird raging with the download now.
I previously didn't give a fuck but now that the war has come home, I'm picking a side. 🇺🇦
A cold and clear day in Tallinn. Borders are still very busy. Plenty of Russian citizens leaving, with rumours of a second "Great Terror". Apparently thousands in jail and round ups underway in many places.
Meanwhile the official sanctions against Russia are being joined by a private sector boycott. This has already happend here in Estonia, but when every international firm in the world is severing ties, the isolation of the Kremlin is on a scale not seen in forty years. The strength of feeling in the West has not lifted the sombre atmosphere here, but there is a certain grim satisfaction: "we told you so".
By some strange and bitter irony, at least for the moment, Estonia is now safer than for many years: the nearest Russian tank columns are over a thousand miles away and Tallinn is too close to St. Petersburg for a nuclear strike to be safe for Russia. Meanwhile, the professional, well funded and well equipped Estonian defence force has been joined by several thousands of British and other NATO troops with full equipment and backed by a much larger air squadron. If Russia does want to come here, then she will have to disengage in Ukraine, and that is not an immediate prospect.
The shocking scenes in Zaporizhya are underlining that we are not dealing with a world class army, but rather an Iraqi style mixture. Friends in Kyiv saying that officers have been systematically puncturing tyres and immobilising vehilces. I don´t know how much of this is hope or wishful thinking, but it is a fact that the column has not moved forward in the North, and even in the South the "occupation" is far from complete. Ukrainian units, tired, low on supplies themselves, but still with high morale, are surviving the onslaught and regrouping. More kit is coming, The ferocity and brutality of the Russian attack is outraging the whole world.
The Western intelligence assessment is that the war could go on for some time. That Putin intends to seize the whole country. I have no doubt that were his army to press an advantage then they can certainly make some progress, but I think it just as likely that there is a stalemate. Then the question of Belarus comes into the equation. Many of the soldiers took part in the demonstrations against Lukashenka, it is a very open question how reliable these troops are.
So, we are on a knife edge between hope and despair, but Russia seems heading into darkness. Our fear is that this ends with a Russian civil war. The attack on Ukraine is certainly a fratricidal disaster. Putin´s Götterdammerung may engulf his whole country.
Thanks. Keep these updates coming if you can. V informative.
Can Russia be turned into a giant N Korea-style prison camp with Putin as head guard in the modern and complex inter-related world?
Seems we may find out sadly.
Accenture has shut its Russian business down so I would imagine now we will see all the consultancy, accountancy and investment banks follows (if they haven't already).
No endless PowerPoints from the big four, and no audit firms? Isn’t that a reward?
Belarus must be waking up this morning less than delighted at the prospect of Chernobyl 2. Putin' goons seem quite relaxed about making Minsk uninhabitable, so long as it means they win in Ukraine.
Think on't, Belarus. You are being rewarded for your loyalty to Putin by THIS?
A cold and clear day in Tallinn. Borders are still very busy. Plenty of Russian citizens leaving, with rumours of a second "Great Terror". Apparently thousands in jail and round ups underway in many places.
Meanwhile the official sanctions against Russia are being joined by a private sector boycott. This has already happend here in Estonia, but when every international firm in the world is severing ties, the isolation of the Kremlin is on a scale not seen in forty years. The strength of feeling in the West has not lifted the sombre atmosphere here, but there is a certain grim satisfaction: "we told you so".
By some strange and bitter irony, at least for the moment, Estonia is now safer than for many years: the nearest Russian tank columns are over a thousand miles away and Tallinn is too close to St. Petersburg for a nuclear strike to be safe for Russia. Meanwhile, the professional, well funded and well equipped Estonian defence force has been joined by several thousands of British and other NATO troops with full equipment and backed by a much larger air squadron. If Russia does want to come here, then she will have to disengage in Ukraine, and that is not an immediate prospect.
The shocking scenes in Zaporizhya are underlining that we are not dealing with a world class army, but rather an Iraqi style mixture. Friends in Kyiv saying that officers have been systematically puncturing tyres and immobilising vehilces. I don´t know how much of this is hope or wishful thinking, but it is a fact that the column has not moved forward in the North, and even in the South the "occupation" is far from complete. Ukrainian units, tired, low on supplies themselves, but still with high morale, are surviving the onslaught and regrouping. More kit is coming, The ferocity and brutality of the Russian attack is outraging the whole world.
The Western intelligence assessment is that the war could go on for some time. That Putin intends to seize the whole country. I have no doubt that were his army to press an advantage then they can certainly make some progress, but I think it just as likely that there is a stalemate. Then the question of Belarus comes into the equation. Many of the soldiers took part in the demonstrations against Lukashenka, it is a very open question how reliable these troops are.
So, we are on a knife edge between hope and despair, but Russia seems heading into darkness. Our fear is that this ends with a Russian civil war. The attack on Ukraine is certainly a fratricidal disaster. Putin´s Götterdammerung may engulf his whole country.
Thanks. Keep these updates coming if you can. V informative.
Can Russia be turned into a giant N Korea-style prison camp with Putin as head guard in the modern and complex inter-related world?
Seems we may find out sadly.
Accenture has shut its Russian business down so I would imagine now we will see all the consultancy, accountancy and investment banks follows (if they haven't already).
Douche Bank will be in the shit - they had a big internal IT department in St Petersburg last time I dealt with them. And a QA outfit in Ukraine....
I don't want to depress people, particularly not after Cicero's update from Tallinn.
But there is a lot of emerging evidence that the Russian Army are not going to fail, and the Ukranian army is about to be crushed; by way of engagement of the Russian air force and heavy bombing of cities. This unherd interview with a military expert was posted on PB yesterday evening by way of example, and was very insightful.
My own maxim is to assume the worst, and we might end up being surprised. However, it seems that we just narrowly escaped another Chernobyl last night - I thought the Russians would be smart enough to avoid that type of risk, they keep proving me wrong.
These are extremely dark days, by far the worst in my lifetime.
As Russia is trying to cut off the flow of information in Ukraine by attacking its communications infrastructure, the British news outlet BBC is revisiting a broadcasting tactic popularized during World War II: shortwave radio.
NY Times
Fuck you Nadine Dorries.
I’ve got a decent quality shortwave radio, with battery supply periodically refreshed. In the case of war, or significant disruption of infrastructure by hostile power (more likely), it is probably the only robust communication reception technology.
We frequently receive messages from the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency (MSB) with quite a long list of things to have at home. The government clearly considers that significant disruption to food, water, telecommunications and electricity supply is fairly likely within the foreseeable future. It is one reason why I will definitely not be buying two electric cars: one of them must have an internal combustion engine. (Picking up our first ever EV later this morning. Yippee!)
Yes, although we get messages from them in a wide range of marketing channels and methods.
Note the last one: full tank. I never let my fuel gauge go below 50%. I swing in to a pump when it gets close. (The kids of course take full advantage and always return the bloody cars empty! 😄 I still love them.)
Thanks.
The previous page was interesting - intrigued by "Blueberry and Rosehip Soup".
Although this is broader, by contrast, I scanned around the UK resources the other day for nuclear preparedness and there appears to have been nothing since Protect and Survive. I'm sure there must be broader home resilience resources and checklists but not looked yet.
In terms of a very limited nuclear war, this is a decent article on what it could look like, with India / Pakistan as the main limited scenario:
The most satisfying part of the Erdington BE was a pretty poor showing from Nellist.
To be fair, he was twice as popular as the LibDems.....
As I said to Carlotta, it seems like the electorate is slowly aligning between Tory and best positioned non-Tory. That's fine by me. It should worry you though.
Russia is starting to roll out blocks for Apple and Google mobile app stores, Facebook, Twitter and a variety of foreign media sites. Blocking is not yet fully effective but I am sure they will figure it out…
I've got nearly 15 years worth of email on yandex. Am I about to get done up the bugle?
Briefcase wankers report in and tell me.
Get a software mail client on your computer (Thunderbird, Outlook, Apple Mail etc) and download all your mail before it gets cut off.
Spasibo, mne pryatno. I've just had a look and it's 18 years! The first emails were on my original mail.ru account from 2004 and then later migrated to Yandex. I've got Thunderbird raging with the download now.
I previously didn't give a fuck but now that the war has come home, I'm picking a side. 🇺🇦
How's Mrs Dura Ace taking it?
Very upset. Being far more sociable and charming than me she still has a lot of friends and colleagues in both Ukraine and Russia. Her friends tend toward the educated, liberal rather than gopnik so they are almost all vehemently anti-Putin but keep it on the down low.
The dentist who was her practice partner in Moscow moved to Kyiv about the time that we left Russia. She's completely disappeared this week so fuck knows what's happened to her.
On top of all that some bastard is using her dishwasher to remove road tar from a ZF HP8 transmission cooler.
but that is also a very creditable Con performance.
In a West Midlands seat where tories are supposed to be at their best, which was the biggest LEAVE seat in the region (63% to 36%), I don't think a 4.5% swing to Labour is remotely creditable.
Labour GE victory nailed on!
Minority Lab government with Lab on 295, SNP on 55, LD on 19, Con on 257 on this projection. Seat by seat projection map, not sure on which boundaries though.
A solid but unspectacular result for Lab in Erdington.
They got the job done. That is all they needed to do.
There were some of the same ingredients as Hartlepool; had this by-election been then, the dynamics of Con+BXP coalescing whilst a far-left wedge peeled off Lab, Labour's bums would have been squeaky. (See also: Batley and Spen).
As it is, Labour did OK, and the question is whether OK is good enough. Still need a tricky Conservative defence.
Not much sign of mass rallying to the flag, though, which is probably fair.
Mid term, with a, er, problematic PM still in Downing Street. And a 78 seat majority to overturn. Lot of first term incumbency for MPs working their seats hard.
Sorry to break it to you, but there's still an uphill battle to beat the Tories....
Sure. Though if the public are fed up enough, a big majority is less of a protection than you might think; easy come, easy go. Macmillan's majority of 100 in 1959 didn't save the Conservatives in 1964.
And a Conservative defeat, let alone a Labour victory, is quite the ask, even from here.
But it's less of an ask than it seemed nine months ago.
... and the financial shock to come hasn't registered yet.
That is not to say Lady Luck or Vlad the Impaler won't ride to Johnson's rescue.
As Russia is trying to cut off the flow of information in Ukraine by attacking its communications infrastructure, the British news outlet BBC is revisiting a broadcasting tactic popularized during World War II: shortwave radio.
NY Times
Fuck you Nadine Dorries.
I’ve got a decent quality shortwave radio, with battery supply periodically refreshed. In the case of war, or significant disruption of infrastructure by hostile power (more likely), it is probably the only robust communication reception technology.
We frequently receive messages from the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency (MSB) with quite a long list of things to have at home. The government clearly considers that significant disruption to food, water, telecommunications and electricity supply is fairly likely within the foreseeable future. It is one reason why I will definitely not be buying two electric cars: one of them must have an internal combustion engine. (Picking up our first ever EV later this morning. Yippee!)
Yes, although we get messages from them in a wide range of marketing channels and methods.
Note the last one: full tank. I never let my fuel gauge go below 50%. I swing in to a pump when it gets close. (The kids of course take full advantage and always return the bloody cars empty! 😄 I still love them.)
Thanks.
The previous page was interesting - intrigued by "Blueberry and Rosehip Soup".
Although this is broader, by contrast, I scanned around the UK resources the other day for nuclear preparedness and there appears to have been nothing since Protect and Survive. I'm sure there must be broader home resilience resources and checklists but not looked yet.
In terms of a very limited nuclear war, this is a decent article on what it could look like, with India / Pakistan as the main limited scenario:
“Global temperatures would have plummeted by more than 10 °C in the first scenario — more than the cooling during the last ice age — but by a little more than 1 °C in the second”.
There is a NATO meeting of foreign ministers in Brussels which just adds to despair as spokesperson after spokesperson says they want to speak out and stand up, but without direct military action they are meaningless
Somebody posted a link to a Ukraine Aid Fund on our village WhatsApp. Which immediately elicited the following tone-deaf response:
"Thanks for the above link Jenny. On a more mundane note, I am putting out a request: we are looking for someone to help clean the house on a fortnightly basis. Any suggestions would be most welcome. Thanks. Becca xx"
Belarus must be waking up this morning less than delighted at the prospect of Chernobyl 2. Putin' goons seem quite relaxed about making Minsk uninhabitable, so long as it means they win in Ukraine.
Think on't, Belarus. You are being rewarded for your loyalty to Putin by THIS?
Belarus feels like Putin's weak link here. The ingredients seem to be there for a violent revolution in Belarus by people already enraged by Lukashenka's previous crack downs, and a disillusioned and mutinying army.
At which point Russia steps in, and the conflagration grows and leads either to a wider war or a Russian revolution.
Russia is starting to roll out blocks for Apple and Google mobile app stores, Facebook, Twitter and a variety of foreign media sites. Blocking is not yet fully effective but I am sure they will figure it out…
I've got nearly 15 years worth of email on yandex. Am I about to get done up the bugle?
Briefcase wankers report in and tell me.
Get a software mail client on your computer (Thunderbird, Outlook, Apple Mail etc) and download all your mail before it gets cut off.
Spasibo, mne pryatno. I've just had a look and it's 18 years! The first emails were on my original mail.ru account from 2004 and then later migrated to Yandex. I've got Thunderbird raging with the download now.
I previously didn't give a fuck but now that the war has come home, I'm picking a side. 🇺🇦
How's Mrs Dura Ace taking it?
Very upset. Being far more sociable and charming than me she still has a lot of friends and colleagues in both Ukraine and Russia. Her friends tend toward the educated, liberal rather than gopnik so they are almost all vehemently anti-Putin but keep it on the down low.
The dentist who was her practice partner in Moscow moved to Kyiv about the time that we left Russia. She's completely disappeared this week so fuck knows what's happened to her.
On top of all that some bastard is using her dishwasher to remove road tar from a ZF HP8 transmission cooler.
At the gopnik end, my son noted that the Adidas boycott of Russia is going to bite hard.
Russia is starting to roll out blocks for Apple and Google mobile app stores, Facebook, Twitter and a variety of foreign media sites. Blocking is not yet fully effective but I am sure they will figure it out…
I've got nearly 15 years worth of email on yandex. Am I about to get done up the bugle?
Briefcase wankers report in and tell me.
Get a software mail client on your computer (Thunderbird, Outlook, Apple Mail etc) and download all your mail before it gets cut off.
Spasibo, mne pryatno. I've just had a look and it's 18 years! The first emails were on my original mail.ru account from 2004 and then later migrated to Yandex. I've got Thunderbird raging with the download now.
I previously didn't give a fuck but now that the war has come home, I'm picking a side. 🇺🇦
Just China left to fall in line then....
The US really needs to make up with China.
When you prioritize dealing with a problem, you necessarily deprioritize dealing with the other ones. Currently the main source of disagreement with China is human rights inside China, but the US doesn't mind overlooking human rights elsewhere, and it's not as if they have much impact on China's domestic policy in any case.
If the US want to deter China over Taiwan, they have to be prepared to show that they respond seriously to wars of aggression, and responding seriously means allying with whoever you need to.
And when you say 'advance' you probably didn't get an actual Advance fare.
£96 for that journey is ridiculous. I'm sorry for you. That sucks.
Luckily my employer is paying but good grief. Would cost £20-£30 in petrol tops to get there.
I also note the train is fairly empty. Wonder why
It's another of the many reasons I may move abroad. The train fares in the UK are ridiculously expensive. £96 for your journey of, what, 90 miles. That's awful.
I had a look on Thetrainline.com and 96 quid is the price of a walkup fare with an open return for 1 month.
Mind you first class would be £179.
Fares are expensive if you travel before 9:30am. Not too bad after that.
Somebody posted a link to a Ukraine Aid Fund on our village WhatsApp. Which immediately elicited the following tone-deaf response:
"Thanks for the above link Jenny. On a more mundane note, I am putting out a request: we are looking for someone to help clean the house on a fortnightly basis. Any suggestions would be most welcome. Thanks. Becca xx"
Some people!
Our assorted local facebook groups and the like are like car crashes. I can’t look away. They make me hate people.
BBC Radio Five Live: firefighters trying to put out the flames are being shot at by Russian troops.
Jesus Christ. At this stage I am pretty sure Putin is TRYING to draw NATO into direct conflict. Because he knows he’s fucked up
One could argue they are trying to cut off the electricity, but I agree with you. Primarily this is about trying to draw NATO into acting.
If NATO became actively engaged in Ukraine, every Russian division would be destroyed, as quickly as Putin could press gang fresh boys into service. If Putin escalated the war to firing on NATO bases flying sorties, NATO could crush every base within 100 miles of the Ukrainian border without blinking. If Putin launched a nuke or nukes, then he like the rest of us loses the game entirely.
If his strategy really is to draw the West in to a fight to retrospectively justify his war, one has to assume he has gone full cuckoo and his goal is universal oblivion.
I don’t think that’s true. I think he knows he can’t hold Ukraine and make it a stable part of mother Russia, so his goal is to make it an ungovernable mess so the West can’t have it either.
I think that is it. He'll see it burn so he can be king of the ashes, or else leave it to others to do nothing but sweep up.
There is a NATO meeting of foreign ministers in Brussels which just adds to despair as spokesperson after spokesperson says they want to speak out and stand up, but without direct military action they are meaningless
I disagree.
NATO is more meaningful now than at any time since 1989.
As Russia is trying to cut off the flow of information in Ukraine by attacking its communications infrastructure, the British news outlet BBC is revisiting a broadcasting tactic popularized during World War II: shortwave radio.
NY Times
Fuck you Nadine Dorries.
I’ve got a decent quality shortwave radio, with battery supply periodically refreshed. In the case of war, or significant disruption of infrastructure by hostile power (more likely), it is probably the only robust communication reception technology.
We frequently receive messages from the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency (MSB) with quite a long list of things to have at home. The government clearly considers that significant disruption to food, water, telecommunications and electricity supply is fairly likely within the foreseeable future. It is one reason why I will definitely not be buying two electric cars: one of them must have an internal combustion engine. (Picking up our first ever EV later this morning. Yippee!)
Yes, although we get messages from them in a wide range of marketing channels and methods.
Note the last one: full tank. I never let my fuel gauge go below 50%. I swing in to a pump when it gets close. (The kids of course take full advantage and always return the bloody cars empty! 😄 I still love them.)
Thanks.
The previous page was interesting - intrigued by "Blueberry and Rosehip Soup".
Although this is broader, by contrast, I scanned around the UK resources the other day for nuclear preparedness and there appears to have been nothing since Protect and Survive. I'm sure there must be broader home resilience resources and checklists but not looked yet.
In terms of a very limited nuclear war, this is a decent article on what it could look like, with India / Pakistan as the main limited scenario:
“Global temperatures would have plummeted by more than 10 °C in the first scenario — more than the cooling during the last ice age — but by a little more than 1 °C in the second”.
Russia is starting to roll out blocks for Apple and Google mobile app stores, Facebook, Twitter and a variety of foreign media sites. Blocking is not yet fully effective but I am sure they will figure it out…
I've got nearly 15 years worth of email on yandex. Am I about to get done up the bugle?
Briefcase wankers report in and tell me.
Get a software mail client on your computer (Thunderbird, Outlook, Apple Mail etc) and download all your mail before it gets cut off.
Spasibo, mne pryatno. I've just had a look and it's 18 years! The first emails were on my original mail.ru account from 2004 and then later migrated to Yandex. I've got Thunderbird raging with the download now.
I previously didn't give a fuck but now that the war has come home, I'm picking a side. 🇺🇦
How's Mrs Dura Ace taking it?
Very upset. Being far more sociable and charming than me she still has a lot of friends and colleagues in both Ukraine and Russia. Her friends tend toward the educated, liberal rather than gopnik so they are almost all vehemently anti-Putin but keep it on the down low.
The dentist who was her practice partner in Moscow moved to Kyiv about the time that we left Russia. She's completely disappeared this week so fuck knows what's happened to her.
On top of all that some bastard is using her dishwasher to remove road tar from a ZF HP8 transmission cooler.
At the gopnik end, my son noted that the Adidas boycott of Russia is going to bite hard.
Won't make any difference. Gopniki (and gopnitsi) wear fake Chinese Adidas from Sadovod Rynok.
Russia is starting to roll out blocks for Apple and Google mobile app stores, Facebook, Twitter and a variety of foreign media sites. Blocking is not yet fully effective but I am sure they will figure it out…
I've got nearly 15 years worth of email on yandex. Am I about to get done up the bugle?
Briefcase wankers report in and tell me.
Get a software mail client on your computer (Thunderbird, Outlook, Apple Mail etc) and download all your mail before it gets cut off.
Spasibo, mne pryatno. I've just had a look and it's 18 years! The first emails were on my original mail.ru account from 2004 and then later migrated to Yandex. I've got Thunderbird raging with the download now.
I previously didn't give a fuck but now that the war has come home, I'm picking a side. 🇺🇦
How's Mrs Dura Ace taking it?
Very upset. Being far more sociable and charming than me she still has a lot of friends and colleagues in both Ukraine and Russia. Her friends tend toward the educated, liberal rather than gopnik so they are almost all vehemently anti-Putin but keep it on the down low.
The dentist who was her practice partner in Moscow moved to Kyiv about the time that we left Russia. She's completely disappeared this week so fuck knows what's happened to her.
On top of all that some bastard is using her dishwasher to remove road tar from a ZF HP8 transmission cooler.
Just assure her that no way a ZF HP8 transmission cooler could have done that damage to the dishwasher and if she dissents send her over to PB for alternative theories.
Comments
I think the point is that this result is as predicted in their projection.
The prediction Lab 55.7%, the result 55.5%.
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No idea how!
Wordle 258 3/6
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https://twitter.com/ArmedForcesUkr/status/1499651826643255299
They really don’t have the means and expertise to do what the Chinese have spent decades honing, and most blocks are trivially bypassed anyway.
(The crash, when the markets finally reopen, is going to be absolutely epic).
SUMMARY: Macron is at highest level for a year. Reading between lines, he is taking votes from Pécresse, who is still falling, despite reclaiming some votes from Zemmour. Le Pen, despite her own Putin baggage, is reclaiming votes from EZ (who once called for a “French Putin”) 11/
https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1499652858601426944
The West, let by the UK and US, has prepared well and responded admirably.
Mind you first class would be £179.
As it is, Labour did OK, and the question is whether OK is good enough. Still need a tricky Conservative defence.
Not much sign of mass rallying to the flag, though, which is probably fair.
"Your mission, should you choose to accept it..."
Briefcase wankers report in and tell me.
Wordle 258 3/6
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Normally (and for ethical and good governance reasons) the Office of Financial Sanctions Implementation (OFSI) announces these things then the Treasury.
OFSI is part of the Treasury.
If Liz Truss is going to start freelancing these things then I may have to use some whistleblower regulations and start asking questions about potential insider trading issues.
I mean, I only do this as part of my day job.
Next, Liz to announce the good bits of the budget before Rishi Sunak announces them to the House.
Liz, have a read of this.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/961516/General_Guidance_-_UK_Financial_Sanctions.pdf
FU Putin.
Treat this as collateral damage in wallpapergate or one of the various other Tory scandals. A disastrous cabinet minister twice sacked for being a cretin, there is no way at all that he deserves a gong. So what is the motivation behind offering him one?
Remember that the primary motivation for all that Boris Johnson says and does is does this benefit me?
Sorry to break it to you, but there's still an uphill battle to beat the Tories....
Note the last one: full tank. I never let my fuel gauge go below 50%. I swing in to a pump when it gets close. (The kids of course take full advantage and always return the bloody cars empty! 😄 I still love them.)
https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/sanctions
Yeah.
I’d hope the right wing UK press will do the right thing and call Le Pen and Zemmour out for being Putin stooges and not be so blinded by Macron hate.
I previously didn't give a fuck but now that the war has come home, I'm picking a side. 🇺🇦
Hopefully one of the few good things to come out of this conflict, is the need to moderate the political discourse, step back from more extreme views and tolerate the opinions of others.
That did not happen yesterday.
The ideal scenario is
1) HMG decides to places a company or person on the sanctions list
2) Tells the banks who then take appropriate steps
3) Publicly announce it
Thanks to Liz, she bypassed step 2 and jumped to step 3, which would allow the person or company to start transferring money out before the banks could stop them.
Russia and its supporters are creating a narrative that since 2014, the Ukrainian military has killed 14,000 "ethnic Russians" in Dombas. This is the reason for Russia's "genocide" claim. 2/….
In short, as far as I can see, Russia's claim of "genocide" against the Ukrainian government is entirely fabricated. /10
https://twitter.com/Frances_Coppola/status/1499654980923498497
The previous page was interesting - intrigued by "Blueberry and Rosehip Soup".
Meanwhile the official sanctions against Russia are being joined by a private sector boycott. This has already happend here in Estonia, but when every international firm in the world is severing ties, the isolation of the Kremlin is on a scale not seen in forty years. The strength of feeling in the West has not lifted the sombre atmosphere here, but there is a certain grim satisfaction: "we told you so".
By some strange and bitter irony, at least for the moment, Estonia is now safer than for many years: the nearest Russian tank columns are over a thousand miles away and Tallinn is too close to St. Petersburg for a nuclear strike to be safe for Russia. Meanwhile, the professional, well funded and well equipped Estonian defence force has been joined by several thousands of British and other NATO troops with full equipment and backed by a much larger air squadron. If Russia does want to come here, then she will have to disengage in Ukraine, and that is not an immediate prospect.
The shocking scenes in Zaporizhya are underlining that we are not dealing with a world class army, but rather an Iraqi style mixture. Friends in Kyiv saying that officers have been systematically puncturing tyres and immobilising vehilces. I don´t know how much of this is hope or wishful thinking, but it is a fact that the column has not moved forward in the North, and even in the South the "occupation" is far from complete. Ukrainian units, tired, low on supplies themselves, but still with high morale, are surviving the onslaught and regrouping. More kit is coming, The ferocity and brutality of the Russian attack is outraging the whole world.
The Western intelligence assessment is that the war could go on for some time. That Putin intends to seize the whole country. I have no doubt that were his army to press an advantage then they can certainly make some progress, but I think it just as likely that there is a stalemate. Then the question of Belarus comes into the equation. Many of the soldiers took part in the demonstrations against Lukashenka, it is a very open question how reliable these troops are.
So, we are on a knife edge between hope and despair, but Russia seems heading into darkness. Our fear is that this ends with a Russian civil war. The attack on Ukraine is certainly a fratricidal disaster. Putin´s Götterdammerung may engulf his whole country.
If anyone is interested in the upcoming Swedish GE (September) I can try to post occasional updates.
A sign of spring!
And, perchance, better times to come!
Russia just passed a new bill making it a criminal offence punishable with a 15 year prison sentence if any journalist in Russia spreads false information about the military or the campaign in Ukraine and could be used against foreign journalists
Any valuations we see next week, if that even happens, will not be genuine would be my guess.
And a Conservative defeat, let alone a Labour victory, is quite the ask, even from here.
But it's less of an ask than it seemed nine months ago.
And if we'd really prepared well, Ukraine would have had better air defence, and some anti ship missiles on the Black Sea coast.
We've not done nothing, but I'm not feeling very proud this morning.
It’s funny how different nations go for different flavourings. Swedes for example love pear-flavoured everything (yoghurt, juice, milkshakes, sweeties etc etc etc), whereas in English speaking markets that doesn’t seem to be a biggie.
Only problem with rosehip and blaeberry soups are that they are full of sugar.
Can Russia be turned into a giant N Korea-style prison camp with Putin as head guard in the modern and complex inter-related world?
Seems we may find out sadly.
The dentist who was her practice partner in Moscow moved to Kyiv about the time that we left Russia. She's completely disappeared this week so fuck knows what's happened to her.
On top of all that some bastard is using her dishwasher to remove road tar from a ZF HP8 transmission cooler.
Missile attack on a school, 100 metres from my house in Zhytomyr.
https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/4-march-remains-of-school-number-25-in-zhytomyr-that-was
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1499654589766946820
(50.2518872, 28.6637542)
Think on't, Belarus. You are being rewarded for your loyalty to Putin by THIS?
But there is a lot of emerging evidence that the Russian Army are not going to fail, and the Ukranian army is about to be crushed; by way of engagement of the Russian air force and heavy bombing of cities. This unherd interview with a military expert was posted on PB yesterday evening by way of example, and was very insightful.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=naPuZgI53Co
My own maxim is to assume the worst, and we might end up being surprised. However, it seems that we just narrowly escaped another Chernobyl last night - I thought the Russians would be smart enough to avoid that type of risk, they keep proving me wrong.
These are extremely dark days, by far the worst in my lifetime.
In terms of a very limited nuclear war, this is a decent article on what it could look like, with India / Pakistan as the main limited scenario:
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00794-y
That is not to say Lady Luck or Vlad the Impaler won't ride to Johnson's rescue.
It was quite remarkable to see a politician joining the army and he spoke with absolute determination .
So it’s not all bad news.
"Thanks for the above link Jenny.
On a more mundane note, I am putting out a request: we are looking for someone to help clean the house on a fortnightly basis. Any suggestions would be most welcome. Thanks. Becca xx"
Some people!
At which point Russia steps in, and the conflagration grows and leads either to a wider war or a Russian revolution.
When you prioritize dealing with a problem, you necessarily deprioritize dealing with the other ones. Currently the main source of disagreement with China is human rights inside China, but the US doesn't mind overlooking human rights elsewhere, and it's not as if they have much impact on China's domestic policy in any case.
If the US want to deter China over Taiwan, they have to be prepared to show that they respond seriously to wars of aggression, and responding seriously means allying with whoever you need to.
(gallows humour before you bite)
( edited to express myself better)
NATO is more meaningful now than at any time since 1989.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eOlUU8l8j5M
DJ Blyatman has come out against the war on his Insta so he's probably in jail now.
Many people are stressed over this. It is a grave concern