April’s French election looks set to be Macron vs Le Pen once again – politicalbetting.com

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April’s French election looks set to be Macron vs Le Pen once again – politicalbetting.com

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Benpointer

First like Macron

Foxy

Second like Le Pen

Gary_Burton

Yes, most likely scenario is Le Pen getting into the run off and then Macron winning the runoff by a margin of 15-20%. I have been shocked at how Pecresse's campaign has fallen apart.

Melenchon has made incremental gains and he is not completely out of it either if Jadot and Rousells' supporters vote tactically in the first round but he would need a fluke right wing vote split and I think Pecresse's collapse probably benefits Le Pen.

gettingbetter

Indeed. Seems pretty nailed on. After the first round what odds will Le Pen be? 12 or 14 perhaps?

FrankBooth

Le Pen has had to shred her campaign material since it contains a photo with Putin.

Foxy

Macron is a wily fellow. Getting re-elected as President is a rare feat, but should beat the Putin lover fairly comfortably.

CarlottaVance

FPT:

Nigelb said:

Thousands of people in Berlin have gone to the central train station to offer fleeing Ukrainians a place to stay. Really moving.
https://twitter.com/marceldirsus/status/1499339110502256641

That was on the BBC 6 news - very moving - more offerers than there were takers.

dixiedean

How long before right wing voters conclude that whatever the question, the answer doesn't.end with Le Pen?

kle4

Made the sponsorships fairly comfortably in the end, although only a few days before deadline rather than over a week like last time.

Her, Dupont-Aignan and Arthaud (not that I really know anything of those two) are all down on sponsorships from last time, though not by much in her case.

Chameleon

FPT:
During Live feed on Russian TV the stock exchange expert drank and cheered to the death of the Russian stock market and said that he would go to work as Santa Claus.

"• ⁠Anchor: Aleksandr Butmanov, economist, expert in stock strategies. Alexander hello.
• ⁠He: Hi, not going to say good day.
• ⁠Anchor: Yeah, noone says that anymore. Are stock strategies out the window or are you hoping to keep your profession?
• ⁠He: Worst case Ill work as Santa like I was doing it 25 years ago
• ⁠Anchor: Thats only once a year.
• ⁠He: Ok, no jokes. Let me really quick, Im going to say hi to Sergey Yusichenko, who was singing death to stock market 13 years ago.
• ⁠He: Today I am drinking soda water. "DEAR STOCK MARKET, YOU MEANT A LOT TO US, YOU WERE SO INTERESTING, WE WERE SO CLOSE. REST IN PEACE MY FRIEND"
• ⁠Anchor: I wont comment this flash-mob. I don't want to believe it."

https://old.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/t5qj3p/during_live_feed_on_russian_tv_the_stock_exchange/

The Entire staff of the Russian TV channel “the rain” resigned during a live stream with last words: “no war” and then played “swan lake” ballet video (just like they did on all USSR tv channels when it suddenly collapsed)

https://old.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/t5ug4p/the_entire_staff_of_the_russian_tv_channel_the/

Free Russian TV going out in style.

kle4

Foxy said:

Macron is a wily fellow. Getting re-elected as President is a rare feat, but should beat the Putin lover fairly comfortably.

Seemed like if she made it to Round 2 she might have at least increased share from last time, maybe high 30s early 40s? But perhaps it'll be a straight repeat, or even a decrease now.

Benpointer

Deleted - sorry quoted wrong post

Benpointer

FPT:

BigRich said:

Benpointer said:

Scott_xP said:

Rumours swirling in Moscow about closed borders & martial law. Flight tickets are sold out as people try to leave. Spoke to journalist who packed up today: it takes her 2 days to drive to Russian border. She gave me this as a gift before she left. @itvnews https://www.itv.com/news/2022-03-03/russians-flee-abroad-amid-worsening-crackdown https://twitter.com/EJ_Burrows/status/1499481725944090627/photo/1

"Flight tickets are sold out..."

Where are people able to fly to from Russia?

Belorussia?

That's like digging an escape tunnel and surfacing inside the perimeter fence.

CarlottaVance

"Everyone is fucking stunned," says one source close to the Kremlin. Another source says no one in the presidential administration expected a full-scale war—or the sanctions. "You can't resign," said first source. "You can only resign right to jail."
WOW.

https://twitter.com/juliaioffe/status/1499364395373240323

Leon

Foxy said:

Macron is a wily fellow. Getting re-elected as President is a rare feat, but should beat the Putin lover fairly comfortably.

It really isn’t a ‘rare feat’. Until recently many presidents got more than one term. Mitterrand. Chirac. Giscard. De Gaulle got about nine terms

rottenborough

Kira Rudik
@kiraincongress
·
55m
So #Putin is going to announce mobilization tomorrow. This means the horde that is attacking #Ukraine will get bigger.

It seems like 1939 year taught the world nothing. Sanctions won’t stop dictators. The good fight will.

#StopPutin #StopWar

https://twitter.com/kiraincongress

kle4

In 1995 Chirac won despite getting less than 21% in the first round. In 2002 he bettered that by getting less than 20% in the first (and smashing Le Pen senior 82-17 on the second).

So whatever else happens (and frankly Macron looked the best of the bunch), I am disappointed there's no chance of breaking the record for lowest share in the first round but still winning, since given the system I feel like they could manage even lower.

Go back to the 70s and people were getting 40+ in the first round.

Andy_JS

Sir Gavin WIlliamson. Didn't see that coming.

rottenborough

As Russia is trying to cut off the flow of information in Ukraine by attacking its communications infrastructure, the British news outlet BBC is revisiting a broadcasting tactic popularized during World War II: shortwave radio.

NY Times



Fuck you Nadine Dorries.

Scott_xP

Andy_JS said:

Sir Gavin WIlliamson. Didn't see that coming.

Not on anybody's spreadsheet...

FrancisUrquhart

According to expert from Royal United Services Institute, Russian are going to fight "proper" now....that means flattening everything.

https://youtu.be/naPuZgI53Co

BigRich

Benpointer said:

FPT:

BigRich said:

Benpointer said:

Scott_xP said:

Rumours swirling in Moscow about closed borders & martial law. Flight tickets are sold out as people try to leave. Spoke to journalist who packed up today: it takes her 2 days to drive to Russian border. She gave me this as a gift before she left. @itvnews https://www.itv.com/news/2022-03-03/russians-flee-abroad-amid-worsening-crackdown https://twitter.com/EJ_Burrows/status/1499481725944090627/photo/1

"Flight tickets are sold out..."

Where are people able to fly to from Russia?

Belorussia?

That's like digging an escape tunnel and surfacing inside the perimeter fence.

I was mostly being sarcastic! but where do you fly to? I don't think South Korea has an aircraft ban? perhaps fly to a city near a boarder and cross from there? might explain why so many crossing in to Estonia at the moment.

rottenborough

Andy_JS said:

Sir Gavin WIlliamson. Didn't see that coming.

Really?

He knows where some of Johnson's bodies are buried, so when he absolutely had to go there was bound to be some kind of 'arrangement'.

JohnO

Leon said:

Foxy said:

Macron is a wily fellow. Getting re-elected as President is a rare feat, but should beat the Putin lover fairly comfortably.

It really isn’t a ‘rare feat’. Until recently many presidents got more than one term. Mitterrand. Chirac. Giscard. De Gaulle got about nine terms

As this is PB, Giscard was a single term Pres (defeated by Mitterrand in 1981) and De Gaulle resigned mid way through his second.

But in those days, the terms were 7 years!

biggles

Can we infer anything for the French parliamentary elections? E.g. country made domestically ungovernable for Macron because the voters feel cheated they had no choice?

rpjs

BigRich said:

Benpointer said:

FPT:

BigRich said:

Benpointer said:

Scott_xP said:

Rumours swirling in Moscow about closed borders & martial law. Flight tickets are sold out as people try to leave. Spoke to journalist who packed up today: it takes her 2 days to drive to Russian border. She gave me this as a gift before she left. @itvnews https://www.itv.com/news/2022-03-03/russians-flee-abroad-amid-worsening-crackdown https://twitter.com/EJ_Burrows/status/1499481725944090627/photo/1

"Flight tickets are sold out..."

Where are people able to fly to from Russia?

Belorussia?

That's like digging an escape tunnel and surfacing inside the perimeter fence.

I was mostly being sarcastic! but where do you fly to? I don't think South Korea has an aircraft ban? perhaps fly to a city near a boarder and cross from there? might explain why so many crossing in to Estonia at the moment.

UAE most likely I should think.

turbotubbs

rottenborough said:

Kira Rudik
@kiraincongress
·
55m
So #Putin is going to announce mobilization tomorrow. This means the horde that is attacking #Ukraine will get bigger.

It seems like 1939 year taught the world nothing. Sanctions won’t stop dictators. The good fight will.

#StopPutin #StopWar

https://twitter.com/kiraincongress

Not entirely sure what sanctions were tried in 1939...

rottenborough

CarlottaVance said:

"Everyone is fucking stunned," says one source close to the Kremlin. Another source says no one in the presidential administration expected a full-scale war—or the sanctions. "You can't resign," said first source. "You can only resign right to jail."
WOW.

https://twitter.com/juliaioffe/status/1499364395373240323

No, you can't resign. But you can load a pistol and shoot the fecking mad dog in the head before he kills us all.

Even your daughter studying english romantic poets at Oxford.

biggles

rottenborough said:

As Russia is trying to cut off the flow of information in Ukraine by attacking its communications infrastructure, the British news outlet BBC is revisiting a broadcasting tactic popularized during World War II: shortwave radio.

NY Times



Fuck you Nadine Dorries.

This is why the world service was (and still should be) directly tax payer funded. Takes it out of the debate.

SirNorfolkPassmore

Andy_JS said:

Sir Gavin WIlliamson. Didn't see that coming.

Yeah, up until now I'd believed political honours were based purely on merit, and that knowing where the bodies were buried had nothing to do with it. This comes as a crushing blow to my innocence.

I mean, whilst I got mine after destroying a rather niche piece of erotica I owned involving an Old Etonian and a pig's carcass, I'd thought that the real reason was for my wider contribution to public life.

rottenborough

Are there enough RU middle class who will literally lose everything in the next few years ready and brave enough to bring this fucker down?

Benpointer

turbotubbs said:

rottenborough said:

Kira Rudik
@kiraincongress
·
55m
So #Putin is going to announce mobilization tomorrow. This means the horde that is attacking #Ukraine will get bigger.

It seems like 1939 year taught the world nothing. Sanctions won’t stop dictators. The good fight will.

#StopPutin #StopWar

https://twitter.com/kiraincongress

Not entirely sure what sanctions were tried in 1939...

Fair point but I think we can forgive Kira Rudik for being somewhat loose with the history given her country's current situation.

Leon

JohnO said:

Leon said:

Foxy said:

Macron is a wily fellow. Getting re-elected as President is a rare feat, but should beat the Putin lover fairly comfortably.

It really isn’t a ‘rare feat’. Until recently many presidents got more than one term. Mitterrand. Chirac. Giscard. De Gaulle got about nine terms

As this is PB, Giscard was a single term Pres (defeated by Mitterrand in 1981) and De Gaulle resigned mid way through his second.

But in those days, the terms were 7 years!

Apols, you’re right about giscard

dixiedean

Andy_JS said:

Sir Gavin WIlliamson. Didn't see that coming.

You didn't?
You're very innocent

Nigelb

(FPT)

FrankBooth said:

Just be watching Konstantin Kisin on triggernometry. He's been watching loads of Russian state TV the last two days and says a lot of the coverage of the war is very religious. The Ukrainian Orthodox Church split from the Russian church a few years ago. The war is a crusade to reunite the Russian people.

In which case it has already failed irretrievably.

pigeon

Graun reporting some Labour jitters about low turnout in Erdington, but general consensus appears to be the predicted comfortable hold.

Gary_Burton

kle4 said:

Foxy said:

Macron is a wily fellow. Getting re-elected as President is a rare feat, but should beat the Putin lover fairly comfortably.

Seemed like if she made it to Round 2 she might have at least increased share from last time, maybe high 30s early 40s? But perhaps it'll be a straight repeat, or even a decrease now.

I think the best case scenario for Le Pen is 43% in the runoff even if some polls have it as close as 55-45.

Chameleon

rottenborough said:

Kira Rudik
@kiraincongress

So #Putin is going to announce mobilization tomorrow. This means the horde that is attacking #Ukraine will get bigger.
It seems like 1939 year taught the world nothing. Sanctions won’t stop dictators. The good fight will.
#StopPutin #StopWar

I get that it probably will happen, but this seems crazy. They can't adequately equip and supply the people they already have, manpower isn't the issue for Russia atm.

Leon

FrancisUrquhart said:

According to expert from Royal United Services Institute, Russian are going to fight "proper" now....that means flattening everything.

https://youtu.be/naPuZgI53Co

Jesus F Christ. Someone shoot the rabid dog

dixiedean

JohnO said:

Leon said:

Foxy said:

Macron is a wily fellow. Getting re-elected as President is a rare feat, but should beat the Putin lover fairly comfortably.

It really isn’t a ‘rare feat’. Until recently many presidents got more than one term. Mitterrand. Chirac. Giscard. De Gaulle got about nine terms

As this is PB, Giscard was a single term Pres (defeated by Mitterrand in 1981) and De Gaulle resigned mid way through his second.

But in those days, the terms were 7 years!

As were our Parliaments before WWI.

rcs1000

Leon said:

Foxy said:

Macron is a wily fellow. Getting re-elected as President is a rare feat, but should beat the Putin lover fairly comfortably.

It really isn’t a ‘rare feat’. Until recently many presidents got more than one term. Mitterrand. Chirac. Giscard. De Gaulle got about nine terms

While that's true, we've had a couple of one-termers in a row: first there was that short chap, and then there was that charisma-free chap, and now there's a chap that hates the British, but at least sound on Russia.

Chameleon

Awful scenes in Chernihiv, tens of civilians blown limb from limb, and they're only the ones easily found.

Nigelb

CarlottaVance said:

"Everyone is fucking stunned," says one source close to the Kremlin. Another source says no one in the presidential administration expected a full-scale war—or the sanctions. "You can't resign," said first source. "You can only resign right to jail."
WOW.

https://twitter.com/juliaioffe/status/1499364395373240323

Collective cowardice enabling Putin’s survival.

dixiedean

biggles said:

Can we infer anything for the French parliamentary elections? E.g. country made domestically ungovernable for Macron because the voters feel cheated they had no choice?

How were they cheated?
They have the free chance to put an electable candidate in the second round.
But they keep putting a Le Pen there instead.

rcs1000

rottenborough said:

Kira Rudik
@kiraincongress
·
55m
So #Putin is going to announce mobilization tomorrow. This means the horde that is attacking #Ukraine will get bigger.

It seems like 1939 year taught the world nothing. Sanctions won’t stop dictators. The good fight will.

#StopPutin #StopWar

https://twitter.com/kiraincongress

Now, I'm no expert, but I'm not sure general mobilisation is a sign the war is going well.

Richard_Nabavi

Politician grabs the centre ground and thus can easily see off nutjobs from either extreme - especially under a two-stage electoral process.

Well, well. Who'd a thunk it?

kle4

Andy_JS said:

Sir Gavin WIlliamson. Didn't see that coming.

I certainly did. But if my attempts at using the search function are accurate it looks like Stuart Dickson may have been the first to mention it being likely back in September (not on sacking day as far as I can tell)

StuartDickson said:

’Gavin Williamson tipped for knighthood’

Oink, oink

https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/3570424#Comment_3570424

pigeon

Chameleon said:

rottenborough said:

Kira Rudik
@kiraincongress

So #Putin is going to announce mobilization tomorrow. This means the horde that is attacking #Ukraine will get bigger.
It seems like 1939 year taught the world nothing. Sanctions won’t stop dictators. The good fight will.
#StopPutin #StopWar

I get that it probably will happen, but this seems crazy. They can't adequately equip and supply the people they already have, manpower isn't the issue for Russia atm.

Yes, though OTOH if you think you're going to need to wage a prolonged war of conquest and then deal with an occupation and an insurgency afterwards, it makes sense to recruit a lot of wholly expendable cannon fodder.

Execution for you and a trip to the gulag for your family awaits deserters.

biggles

dixiedean said:

biggles said:

Can we infer anything for the French parliamentary elections? E.g. country made domestically ungovernable for Macron because the voters feel cheated they had no choice?

How were they cheated?
They have the free chance to put an electable candidate in the second round.
But they keep putting a Le Pen there instead.

A plurality (discounting Macron’s voters) don’t. It’s a silly system, but then what do you expect from the French?

rcs1000

kle4 said:

In 1995 Chirac won despite getting less than 21% in the first round. In 2002 he bettered that by getting less than 20% in the first (and smashing Le Pen senior 82-17 on the second).

So whatever else happens (and frankly Macron looked the best of the bunch), I am disappointed there's no chance of breaking the record for lowest share in the first round but still winning, since given the system I feel like they could manage even lower.

Go back to the 70s and people were getting 40+ in the first round.

Ah, back in the good old days...

Benpointer

biggles said:

dixiedean said:

biggles said:

Can we infer anything for the French parliamentary elections? E.g. country made domestically ungovernable for Macron because the voters feel cheated they had no choice?

How were they cheated?
They have the free chance to put an electable candidate in the second round.
But they keep putting a Le Pen there instead.

A plurality (discounting Macron’s voters) don’t. It’s a silly system, but then what do you expect from the French?

Is it any sillier than ours?

biggles

rcs1000 said:

rottenborough said:

Kira Rudik
@kiraincongress
·
55m
So #Putin is going to announce mobilization tomorrow. This means the horde that is attacking #Ukraine will get bigger.

It seems like 1939 year taught the world nothing. Sanctions won’t stop dictators. The good fight will.

#StopPutin #StopWar

https://twitter.com/kiraincongress

Now, I'm no expert, but I'm not sure general mobilisation is a sign the war is going well.

We got well past day seven in WWI…..

CarlottaVance

NYT analysis of that cluster bomb dash cam footage:

Video verified by The New York Times shows the bombardment of Chernihiv, Ukraine, on Thursday. As smoke cleared from the attack — which hit near apartments, pharmacies and a hospital — people are seen running in the street.
https://nyti.ms/3sE87XD

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1499414309645991957

SirNorfolkPassmore

dixiedean said:

JohnO said:

Leon said:

Foxy said:

Macron is a wily fellow. Getting re-elected as President is a rare feat, but should beat the Putin lover fairly comfortably.

It really isn’t a ‘rare feat’. Until recently many presidents got more than one term. Mitterrand. Chirac. Giscard. De Gaulle got about nine terms

As this is PB, Giscard was a single term Pres (defeated by Mitterrand in 1981) and De Gaulle resigned mid way through his second.

But in those days, the terms were 7 years!

As were our Parliaments before WWI.

I enjoy the irony that, for 100 years, the maximum five year term of a UK Parliament was set down by the Septennial Act.

biggles

Benpointer said:

biggles said:

dixiedean said:

biggles said:

Can we infer anything for the French parliamentary elections? E.g. country made domestically ungovernable for Macron because the voters feel cheated they had no choice?

How were they cheated?
They have the free chance to put an electable candidate in the second round.
But they keep putting a Le Pen there instead.

A plurality (discounting Macron’s voters) don’t. It’s a silly system, but then what do you expect from the French?

Is it any sillier than ours?

Yes, they have an elected President.

kle4

rcs1000 said:

kle4 said:

In 1995 Chirac won despite getting less than 21% in the first round. In 2002 he bettered that by getting less than 20% in the first (and smashing Le Pen senior 82-17 on the second).

So whatever else happens (and frankly Macron looked the best of the bunch), I am disappointed there's no chance of breaking the record for lowest share in the first round but still winning, since given the system I feel like they could manage even lower.

Go back to the 70s and people were getting 40+ in the first round.

Ah, back in the good old days...

I've seen recordings of the 70s, life was all grainy footage and bad hair (albeit not as bad as the 80s). Fortunately it was after they invented colour and life was no longer in black and white, but even so it looks bad.

BigRich

rottenborough said:

Kira Rudik
@kiraincongress
·
55m
So #Putin is going to announce mobilization tomorrow. This means the horde that is attacking #Ukraine will get bigger.

It seems like 1939 year taught the world nothing. Sanctions won’t stop dictators. The good fight will.

#StopPutin #StopWar

https://twitter.com/kiraincongress

Predictions are difficult at this time, but I don't think Putin will do that, If he does announce mobilisation, in the séance of mobilising the full 2 million reserves that Russia has, he would be admitting publicly that this is not going the way he what's it to go. it also give a lot of able boded men of military age a reason (another reason?) to join in the protest.

I do think he will unlessh hell on Ukrainian cities shortly.

rcs1000

Chameleon said:

rottenborough said:

Kira Rudik
@kiraincongress

So #Putin is going to announce mobilization tomorrow. This means the horde that is attacking #Ukraine will get bigger.
It seems like 1939 year taught the world nothing. Sanctions won’t stop dictators. The good fight will.
#StopPutin #StopWar

I get that it probably will happen, but this seems crazy. They can't adequately equip and supply the people they already have, manpower isn't the issue for Russia atm.

It also worsens other issues in Russia: who is working in the factories or the fields, if everyone is mobilized?

And you already identified the fundamental issue: Russia will have been burning through equipment and ammunition faster than people already. This does not solve that issue.

kle4

Benpointer said:

biggles said:

dixiedean said:

biggles said:

Can we infer anything for the French parliamentary elections? E.g. country made domestically ungovernable for Macron because the voters feel cheated they had no choice?

How were they cheated?
They have the free chance to put an electable candidate in the second round.
But they keep putting a Le Pen there instead.

A plurality (discounting Macron’s voters) don’t. It’s a silly system, but then what do you expect from the French?

Is it any sillier than ours?

Which bits? Some parts of both are sillier than the other perhaps.

pigeon

Chameleon said:

Awful scenes in Chernihiv, tens of civilians blown limb from limb, and they're only the ones easily found.

As well as carpet bombing of cities being a change of approach to achieving the immediate aim of conquest, this may also be part of a broader effort to depopulate Ukraine, which would explain the reports from the Russia-Ukraine negotiations about possible agreement on humanitarian corridors. Terrify the population, then allow as much of it as wants to run to flee westwards into the EU. Reduce the remaining pool of malcontent citizens available to man and support the war effort and any future insurgency, and attempt to destabilise the West with a mass influx of penniless refugees at the same time.

dixiedean

biggles said:

dixiedean said:

biggles said:

Can we infer anything for the French parliamentary elections? E.g. country made domestically ungovernable for Macron because the voters feel cheated they had no choice?

How were they cheated?
They have the free chance to put an electable candidate in the second round.
But they keep putting a Le Pen there instead.

A plurality (discounting Macron’s voters) don’t. It’s a silly system, but then what do you expect from the French?

What system do you prefer?
FPTP. Macron wins.
STV. Macron wins.

It's like Trudeau. He sits where the median voter sits. And so he wins.

kle4

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

dixiedean said:

JohnO said:

Leon said:

Foxy said:

Macron is a wily fellow. Getting re-elected as President is a rare feat, but should beat the Putin lover fairly comfortably.

It really isn’t a ‘rare feat’. Until recently many presidents got more than one term. Mitterrand. Chirac. Giscard. De Gaulle got about nine terms

As this is PB, Giscard was a single term Pres (defeated by Mitterrand in 1981) and De Gaulle resigned mid way through his second.

But in those days, the terms were 7 years!

As were our Parliaments before WWI.

I enjoy the irony that, for 100 years, the maximum five year term of a UK Parliament was set down by the Septennial Act.

That's a great election fact.

Aslan

Richard_Nabavi said:

Politician grabs the centre ground and thus can easily see off nutjobs from either extreme - especially under a two-stage electoral process.

Well, well. Who'd a thunk it?

A jungle primary and then a one on one second round is the best electoral system.

CorrectHorseBattery

Hostility against Keir Starmer? The dullest person in the world?

kle4

rcs1000 said:

rottenborough said:

Kira Rudik
@kiraincongress
·
55m
So #Putin is going to announce mobilization tomorrow. This means the horde that is attacking #Ukraine will get bigger.

It seems like 1939 year taught the world nothing. Sanctions won’t stop dictators. The good fight will.

#StopPutin #StopWar

https://twitter.com/kiraincongress

Now, I'm no expert, but I'm not sure general mobilisation is a sign the war is going well.

Nonsense, it's just that nazis are bloody everywhere - in Ukraine, grandmothers holding placards in Moscow, NATO headquarters...

Richard_Nabavi

I guess Putin needs 2 million men to push the bogged-down tanks and transports out of the mud.

Quincel

Benpointer said:

biggles said:

dixiedean said:

biggles said:

Can we infer anything for the French parliamentary elections? E.g. country made domestically ungovernable for Macron because the voters feel cheated they had no choice?

How were they cheated?
They have the free chance to put an electable candidate in the second round.
But they keep putting a Le Pen there instead.

A plurality (discounting Macron’s voters) don’t. It’s a silly system, but then what do you expect from the French?

Is it any sillier than ours?

I'm not a massive fan of FPTP, but the French Parliamentary electoral system whereby:

1. There is a first round, if anyone gets 50% of the votes cast AND 25% of the votes which could have been cast they win;
2. If not, there is a runoff between all the candidates who got at least 12.5% of the votes which could have been cast, thus making turnout key for the number of candidates who make it to the runoff;
3. But it is common for 3rd/4th candidates to come under pressure to drop out of the runoff if they are splitting the vote, since the runoff is straight FPTP.

It is just bonkers. If you want to use AV just use AV.

turbotubbs

dixiedean said:

biggles said:

dixiedean said:

biggles said:

Can we infer anything for the French parliamentary elections? E.g. country made domestically ungovernable for Macron because the voters feel cheated they had no choice?

How were they cheated?
They have the free chance to put an electable candidate in the second round.
But they keep putting a Le Pen there instead.

A plurality (discounting Macron’s voters) don’t. It’s a silly system, but then what do you expect from the French?

What system do you prefer?
FPTP. Macron wins.
STV. Macron wins.

It's like Trudeau. He sits where the median voter sits. And so he wins.

There’s probably a message there for a centrist U.K. politician. Shed your hard left/right loons, find the middle ground and win.

rcs1000

dixiedean said:

biggles said:

dixiedean said:

biggles said:

Can we infer anything for the French parliamentary elections? E.g. country made domestically ungovernable for Macron because the voters feel cheated they had no choice?

How were they cheated?
They have the free chance to put an electable candidate in the second round.
But they keep putting a Le Pen there instead.

A plurality (discounting Macron’s voters) don’t. It’s a silly system, but then what do you expect from the French?

What system do you prefer?
FPTP. Macron wins.
STV. Macron wins.

It's like Trudeau. He sits where the median voter sits. And so he wins.

If I was the median voter, I'd be fucking pissed to find Macron or Trudeau in my seat.

Leon

FrancisUrquhart said:

According to expert from Royal United Services Institute, Russian are going to fight "proper" now....that means flattening everything.

https://youtu.be/naPuZgI53Co

Compulsory viewing, that interview. And deeply concerning. Putin is now going to level Ukraine to the ground, a Genghis Khan type attack; leave nothing alive that is a threat

I fear that Ukraine should probably surrender. I know that is not a popular opinion on here. But if they don’t, tens of thousands will die, the country will be obliterated - and they will still lose.

Pro_Rata

Leon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

According to expert from Royal United Services Institute, Russian are going to fight "proper" now....that means flattening everything.

https://youtu.be/naPuZgI53Co

Jesus F Christ. Someone shoot the rabid dog

If the nuclear threat wasn't put in place to enable harsher tactics whose humanitarian effects might otherwise virtually force NATO in, then I'm not sure what it was.

By the way, what do we make of the Mayor of Kherson. He wasn't exactly drumming for war after his city was taken over.

kle4

Quincel said:

Benpointer said:

biggles said:

dixiedean said:

biggles said:

Can we infer anything for the French parliamentary elections? E.g. country made domestically ungovernable for Macron because the voters feel cheated they had no choice?

How were they cheated?
They have the free chance to put an electable candidate in the second round.
But they keep putting a Le Pen there instead.

A plurality (discounting Macron’s voters) don’t. It’s a silly system, but then what do you expect from the French?

Is it any sillier than ours?

I'm not a massive fan of FPTP, but the French Parliamentary electoral system whereby:

1. There is a first round, if anyone gets 50% of the votes cast AND 25% of the votes which could have been cast they win;
2. If not, there is a runoff between all the candidates who got at least 12.5% of the votes which could have been cast, thus making turnout key for the number of candidates who make it to the runoff;
3. But it is common for 3rd/4th candidates to come under pressure to drop out of the runoff if they are splitting the vote, since the runoff is straight FPTP.

It is just bonkers. If you want to use AV just use AV.

Wait, what? It isn't just that the top two go through to a run off, it's just convention?

BigRich

Are they counting the By-election in Birmingham tonight, or in the morning and do we know what time to expect the results? does a low tern out = quick results?

Gardenwalker

rcs1000 said:

Chameleon said:

rottenborough said:

Kira Rudik
@kiraincongress

So #Putin is going to announce mobilization tomorrow. This means the horde that is attacking #Ukraine will get bigger.
It seems like 1939 year taught the world nothing. Sanctions won’t stop dictators. The good fight will.
#StopPutin #StopWar

I get that it probably will happen, but this seems crazy. They can't adequately equip and supply the people they already have, manpower isn't the issue for Russia atm.

It also worsens other issues in Russia: who is working in the factories or the fields, if everyone is mobilized?

And you already identified the fundamental issue: Russia will have been burning through equipment and ammunition faster than people already. This does not solve that issue.

Mobilisation could also mean effectively becoming a war economy. To the extent that Russian corporates have viability outside the Western economic order, they can be suborned to the production of military materiel.

dixiedean

rcs1000 said:

dixiedean said:

biggles said:

dixiedean said:

biggles said:

Can we infer anything for the French parliamentary elections? E.g. country made domestically ungovernable for Macron because the voters feel cheated they had no choice?

How were they cheated?
They have the free chance to put an electable candidate in the second round.
But they keep putting a Le Pen there instead.

A plurality (discounting Macron’s voters) don’t. It’s a silly system, but then what do you expect from the French?

What system do you prefer?
FPTP. Macron wins.
STV. Macron wins.

It's like Trudeau. He sits where the median voter sits. And so he wins.

If I was the median voter, I'd be fucking pissed to find Macron or Trudeau in my seat.

Indeed.
You may be more pissed off if it were Boris, Corbyn or Trump,.mind.

Nigelb

There do appear to be those onboard with Putin’s behaviour, or course.

A reporter showed Russians pictures of bombed out buildings in Kharkiv and Kyiv. The reactions are depressing.

“I’m not even going to look at the photos. I’m for Putin in all respects.”

“Sure they’re our brotherly nation but it’s not we who are at fault.”
https://twitter.com/gkates/status/1499500401904787462

rottenborough

biggles said:

rcs1000 said:

rottenborough said:

Kira Rudik
@kiraincongress
·
55m
So #Putin is going to announce mobilization tomorrow. This means the horde that is attacking #Ukraine will get bigger.

It seems like 1939 year taught the world nothing. Sanctions won’t stop dictators. The good fight will.

#StopPutin #StopWar

https://twitter.com/kiraincongress

Now, I'm no expert, but I'm not sure general mobilisation is a sign the war is going well.

We got well past day seven in WWI…..

General mobilisation, if it happens, is in this case Mad Vlad trying to distract and make the crisis even worse than it appears to the home audience. Otherwise they might be looking at the two cabbages and 500g of oats they have to live on for the next six weeks that they exchanged for 4million rubles earlier and beginning to ask questions.

Foxy

rcs1000 said:

Chameleon said:

rottenborough said:

Kira Rudik
@kiraincongress

So #Putin is going to announce mobilization tomorrow. This means the horde that is attacking #Ukraine will get bigger.
It seems like 1939 year taught the world nothing. Sanctions won’t stop dictators. The good fight will.
#StopPutin #StopWar

I get that it probably will happen, but this seems crazy. They can't adequately equip and supply the people they already have, manpower isn't the issue for Russia atm.

It also worsens other issues in Russia: who is working in the factories or the fields, if everyone is mobilized?

And you already identified the fundamental issue: Russia will have been burning through equipment and ammunition faster than people already. This does not solve that issue.

More to the point, arming a bunch of reluctant conscripts and expecting them to fight for you rather than against you is a high risk strategy. It was the sailors that brought down the Menshivik government for continuing the war.

Quincel

kle4 said:

Quincel said:

Benpointer said:

biggles said:

dixiedean said:

biggles said:

Can we infer anything for the French parliamentary elections? E.g. country made domestically ungovernable for Macron because the voters feel cheated they had no choice?

How were they cheated?
They have the free chance to put an electable candidate in the second round.
But they keep putting a Le Pen there instead.

A plurality (discounting Macron’s voters) don’t. It’s a silly system, but then what do you expect from the French?

Is it any sillier than ours?

I'm not a massive fan of FPTP, but the French Parliamentary electoral system whereby:

1. There is a first round, if anyone gets 50% of the votes cast AND 25% of the votes which could have been cast they win;
2. If not, there is a runoff between all the candidates who got at least 12.5% of the votes which could have been cast, thus making turnout key for the number of candidates who make it to the runoff;
3. But it is common for 3rd/4th candidates to come under pressure to drop out of the runoff if they are splitting the vote, since the runoff is straight FPTP.

It is just bonkers. If you want to use AV just use AV.

Wait, what? It isn't just that the top two go through to a run off, it's just convention?

The Presidential election is that, just straight SV but with a full second round election. The system I described is their parliamentary elections.

kle4

Nigelb said:

There do appear to be those onboard with Putin’s behaviour, or course.

A reporter showed Russians pictures of bombed out buildings in Kharkiv and Kyiv. The reactions are depressing.

“I’m not even going to look at the photos. I’m for Putin in all respects.”

“Sure they’re our brotherly nation but it’s not we who are at fault.”
https://twitter.com/gkates/status/1499500401904787462

Why you gotta make Russia hit you, Ukraine, don't you know they love you?

pigeon

BigRich said:

Are they counting the By-election in Birmingham tonight, or in the morning and do we know what time to expect the results? does a low tern out = quick results?

According to the Birmingham Mail website the count takes place tonight with a result expected in the early hours of the morning.

Quincel

BigRich said:

Are they counting the By-election in Birmingham tonight, or in the morning and do we know what time to expect the results? does a low tern out = quick results?

According to Aaron Bastani on Twitter a result is expected at 2am or so. I assume he is in touch with activists in the seat.

biggles

kle4 said:

Quincel said:

Benpointer said:

biggles said:

dixiedean said:

biggles said:

Can we infer anything for the French parliamentary elections? E.g. country made domestically ungovernable for Macron because the voters feel cheated they had no choice?

How were they cheated?
They have the free chance to put an electable candidate in the second round.
But they keep putting a Le Pen there instead.

A plurality (discounting Macron’s voters) don’t. It’s a silly system, but then what do you expect from the French?

Is it any sillier than ours?

I'm not a massive fan of FPTP, but the French Parliamentary electoral system whereby:

1. There is a first round, if anyone gets 50% of the votes cast AND 25% of the votes which could have been cast they win;
2. If not, there is a runoff between all the candidates who got at least 12.5% of the votes which could have been cast, thus making turnout key for the number of candidates who make it to the runoff;
3. But it is common for 3rd/4th candidates to come under pressure to drop out of the runoff if they are splitting the vote, since the runoff is straight FPTP.

It is just bonkers. If you want to use AV just use AV.

Wait, what? It isn't just that the top two go through to a run off, it's just convention?

That shocked me too. I just assumed.

Aslan

Gardenwalker said:

rcs1000 said:

Chameleon said:

rottenborough said:

Kira Rudik
@kiraincongress

So #Putin is going to announce mobilization tomorrow. This means the horde that is attacking #Ukraine will get bigger.
It seems like 1939 year taught the world nothing. Sanctions won’t stop dictators. The good fight will.
#StopPutin #StopWar

I get that it probably will happen, but this seems crazy. They can't adequately equip and supply the people they already have, manpower isn't the issue for Russia atm.

It also worsens other issues in Russia: who is working in the factories or the fields, if everyone is mobilized?

And you already identified the fundamental issue: Russia will have been burning through equipment and ammunition faster than people already. This does not solve that issue.

Mobilisation could also mean effectively becoming a war economy. To the extent that Russian corporates have viability outside the Western economic order, they can be suborned to the production of military materiel.

What does mobilization mean? Nationalization of all the oligarchs' businesses? Trying to remove all their independent wealth so they can't depose him?

Also state propaganda has been insisting its a special operation not a war. Now there is a general mobilization? More conscripts?

kle4

Quincel said:

kle4 said:

Quincel said:

Benpointer said:

biggles said:

dixiedean said:

biggles said:

Can we infer anything for the French parliamentary elections? E.g. country made domestically ungovernable for Macron because the voters feel cheated they had no choice?

How were they cheated?
They have the free chance to put an electable candidate in the second round.
But they keep putting a Le Pen there instead.

A plurality (discounting Macron’s voters) don’t. It’s a silly system, but then what do you expect from the French?

Is it any sillier than ours?

I'm not a massive fan of FPTP, but the French Parliamentary electoral system whereby:

1. There is a first round, if anyone gets 50% of the votes cast AND 25% of the votes which could have been cast they win;
2. If not, there is a runoff between all the candidates who got at least 12.5% of the votes which could have been cast, thus making turnout key for the number of candidates who make it to the runoff;
3. But it is common for 3rd/4th candidates to come under pressure to drop out of the runoff if they are splitting the vote, since the runoff is straight FPTP.

It is just bonkers. If you want to use AV just use AV.

Wait, what? It isn't just that the top two go through to a run off, it's just convention?

The Presidential election is that, just straight SV but with a full second round election. The system I described is their parliamentary elections.

Oh thank goodness, I was getting confused. That is a weird system. It's like a rerun under a different counting system rather than a runoff, albeit weeding out the very minor candidates.

Stuartinromford

rcs1000 said:

dixiedean said:

biggles said:

dixiedean said:

biggles said:

Can we infer anything for the French parliamentary elections? E.g. country made domestically ungovernable for Macron because the voters feel cheated they had no choice?

How were they cheated?
They have the free chance to put an electable candidate in the second round.
But they keep putting a Le Pen there instead.

A plurality (discounting Macron’s voters) don’t. It’s a silly system, but then what do you expect from the French?

What system do you prefer?
FPTP. Macron wins.
STV. Macron wins.

It's like Trudeau. He sits where the median voter sits. And so he wins.

If I was the median voter, I'd be fucking pissed to find Macron or Trudeau in my seat.

If you were the mean voter, you wouldn't want to give up your seat for anyone.

pigeon

pigeon said:

BigRich said:

Are they counting the By-election in Birmingham tonight, or in the morning and do we know what time to expect the results? does a low tern out = quick results?

According to the Birmingham Mail website the count takes place tonight with a result expected in the early hours of the morning.

And on this topic, expectation management from Labour:

Labour says it's looking "really tight"

PA news reports a Labour source said: “The weather’s absolutely grim and turnout is looking extremely low. It’s going to be really tight.”

A Tory source said Boris Johnson’s party was expecting a “respectable showing”.

https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/live-updates-erdington-voters-go-23279522

Leon

Pro_Rata said:

Leon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

According to expert from Royal United Services Institute, Russian are going to fight "proper" now....that means flattening everything.

https://youtu.be/naPuZgI53Co

Jesus F Christ. Someone shoot the rabid dog

If the nuclear threat wasn't put in place to enable harsher tactics whose humanitarian effects might otherwise virtually force NATO in, then I'm not sure what it was.

By the way, what do we make of the Mayor of Kherson. He wasn't exactly drumming for war after his city was taken over.

I’ve read that Kherson was menaced by the Chechens. Who are predictably horrible. They said to Kherson’s mayor - ‘surrender and we will not destroy the city, fight and you all die’. He yielded. Hence his doveishness now?

It’s all perfectly medieval

Foxy

Quincel said:

Benpointer said:

biggles said:

dixiedean said:

biggles said:

Can we infer anything for the French parliamentary elections? E.g. country made domestically ungovernable for Macron because the voters feel cheated they had no choice?

How were they cheated?
They have the free chance to put an electable candidate in the second round.
But they keep putting a Le Pen there instead.

A plurality (discounting Macron’s voters) don’t. It’s a silly system, but then what do you expect from the French?

Is it any sillier than ours?

I'm not a massive fan of FPTP, but the French Parliamentary electoral system whereby:

1. There is a first round, if anyone gets 50% of the votes cast AND 25% of the votes which could have been cast they win;
2. If not, there is a runoff between all the candidates who got at least 12.5% of the votes which could have been cast, thus making turnout key for the number of candidates who make it to the runoff;
3. But it is common for 3rd/4th candidates to come under pressure to drop out of the runoff if they are splitting the vote, since the runoff is straight FPTP.

It is just bonkers. If you want to use AV just use AV.

So you are saying AV is a better voting system...

kle4

pigeon said:

pigeon said:

BigRich said:

Are they counting the By-election in Birmingham tonight, or in the morning and do we know what time to expect the results? does a low tern out = quick results?

According to the Birmingham Mail website the count takes place tonight with a result expected in the early hours of the morning.

And on this topic, expectation management from Labour:

Labour says it's looking "really tight"

PA news reports a Labour source said: “The weather’s absolutely grim and turnout is looking extremely low. It’s going to be really tight.”

A Tory source said Boris Johnson’s party was expecting a “respectable showing”.

https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/live-updates-erdington-voters-go-23279522

It's another by-election pavlovian response. With super low turnout you can claim you were being truthful as by number of votes it might not look comfortable even when the percentages are.

But as ever with by-elections I'd want the most entertaining outcome.

kle4

Pro_Rata said:

Leon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

According to expert from Royal United Services Institute, Russian are going to fight "proper" now....that means flattening everything.

https://youtu.be/naPuZgI53Co

Jesus F Christ. Someone shoot the rabid dog

If the nuclear threat wasn't put in place to enable harsher tactics whose humanitarian effects might otherwise virtually force NATO in, then I'm not sure what it was.

By the way, what do we make of the Mayor of Kherson. He wasn't exactly drumming for war after his city was taken over.

Well, defiance won't be as easy to contemplate at that moment. Who knows what future will bring?

turbotubbs

pigeon said:

pigeon said:

BigRich said:

Are they counting the By-election in Birmingham tonight, or in the morning and do we know what time to expect the results? does a low tern out = quick results?

According to the Birmingham Mail website the count takes place tonight with a result expected in the early hours of the morning.

And on this topic, expectation management from Labour:

Labour says it's looking "really tight"

PA news reports a Labour source said: “The weather’s absolutely grim and turnout is looking extremely low. It’s going to be really tight.”

A Tory source said Boris Johnson’s party was expecting a “respectable showing”.

https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/live-updates-erdington-voters-go-23279522

Does respectable mean three figures?

Andy_JS

Something to remember about Birmingham Erdington: it's next door to Sutton Coldfield which has recorded the highest Tory share in the entire country on some occasions (although not recently). So if you had a relatively high turnout in the areas bordering Sutton Coldfield and a very poor turnout elsewhere, it could conceivably be rather close.

HYUFD

At the moment it does look like the French Presidential election will be Macron v Le Pen again.

However the runoff will be more like 55% 45% than the 66% 34% it was in 2017

darkage

rpjs said:

BigRich said:

Benpointer said:

FPT:

BigRich said:

Benpointer said:

Scott_xP said:

Rumours swirling in Moscow about closed borders & martial law. Flight tickets are sold out as people try to leave. Spoke to journalist who packed up today: it takes her 2 days to drive to Russian border. She gave me this as a gift before she left. @itvnews https://www.itv.com/news/2022-03-03/russians-flee-abroad-amid-worsening-crackdown https://twitter.com/EJ_Burrows/status/1499481725944090627/photo/1

"Flight tickets are sold out..."

Where are people able to fly to from Russia?

Belorussia?

That's like digging an escape tunnel and surfacing inside the perimeter fence.

I was mostly being sarcastic! but where do you fly to? I don't think South Korea has an aircraft ban? perhaps fly to a city near a boarder and cross from there? might explain why so many crossing in to Estonia at the moment.

UAE most likely I should think.

there are loads of flights to Dubai tomorrow. £200. Just the question of whether you will be let on to the plane.

rottenborough

Leon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

According to expert from Royal United Services Institute, Russian are going to fight "proper" now....that means flattening everything.

https://youtu.be/naPuZgI53Co

Compulsory viewing, that interview. And deeply concerning. Putin is now going to level Ukraine to the ground, a Genghis Khan type attack; leave nothing alive that is a threat

I fear that Ukraine should probably surrender. I know that is not a popular opinion on here. But if they don’t, tens of thousands will die, the country will be obliterated - and they will still lose.

'Live free or die' is no longer a number plate sign.

pigeon

kle4 said:

pigeon said:

pigeon said:

BigRich said:

Are they counting the By-election in Birmingham tonight, or in the morning and do we know what time to expect the results? does a low tern out = quick results?

According to the Birmingham Mail website the count takes place tonight with a result expected in the early hours of the morning.

And on this topic, expectation management from Labour:

Labour says it's looking "really tight"

PA news reports a Labour source said: “The weather’s absolutely grim and turnout is looking extremely low. It’s going to be really tight.”

A Tory source said Boris Johnson’s party was expecting a “respectable showing”.

https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/live-updates-erdington-voters-go-23279522

It's another by-election pavlovian response. With super low turnout you can claim you were being truthful as by number of votes it might not look comfortable even when the percentages are.

But as ever with by-elections I'd want the most entertaining outcome.

Drawing of lots between Dave Nellist and the Church of the Militant Elvis?

Aslan

Leon said:

Pro_Rata said:

Leon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

According to expert from Royal United Services Institute, Russian are going to fight "proper" now....that means flattening everything.

https://youtu.be/naPuZgI53Co

Jesus F Christ. Someone shoot the rabid dog

If the nuclear threat wasn't put in place to enable harsher tactics whose humanitarian effects might otherwise virtually force NATO in, then I'm not sure what it was.

By the way, what do we make of the Mayor of Kherson. He wasn't exactly drumming for war after his city was taken over.

I’ve read that Kherson was menaced by the Chechens. Who are predictably horrible. They said to Kherson’s mayor - ‘surrender and we will not destroy the city, fight and you all die’. He yielded. Hence his doveishness now?

It’s all perfectly medieval

But the threat doesn't work when they move on to the next city. You can't blackmail everyone at the same time. Especially when the fighting is done by underground guerillas.

biggles

The pictures on ITV news just now….. Fuck ‘em. Maximum sanctions. Utter isolation. It’s so hard to look at that and not want to just take on the bastards.

dixiedean

kle4 said:

pigeon said:

pigeon said:

BigRich said:

Are they counting the By-election in Birmingham tonight, or in the morning and do we know what time to expect the results? does a low tern out = quick results?

According to the Birmingham Mail website the count takes place tonight with a result expected in the early hours of the morning.

And on this topic, expectation management from Labour:

Labour says it's looking "really tight"

PA news reports a Labour source said: “The weather’s absolutely grim and turnout is looking extremely low. It’s going to be really tight.”

A Tory source said Boris Johnson’s party was expecting a “respectable showing”.

https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/live-updates-erdington-voters-go-23279522

It's another by-election pavlovian response. With super low turnout you can claim you were being truthful as by number of votes it might not look comfortable even when the percentages are.

But as ever with by-elections I'd want the most entertaining outcome.

Yes.
Majority cut!!!
With half the turnout.*

*This is a hostage to fortune. But it frequently happens and annoys me.