BIDEN HAS BEEN PRESENTED WITH MENU OF OPTIONS FOR CYBERATTACKS DESIGNED TO DISRUPT RUSSIA’S ABILITY TO SUSTAIN MILITARY OPERATIONS IN UKRAINE -NBC NEWS
Thread on the challenges facing the EU in agreeing a package:
Senior EU officials keep talking up the prospects of a "massive" package of sanctions against 🇷🇺 for its invasion of 🇺🇦 as EU leaders prepare to gather tonight in Bxl at 8pm CET. But - at least as of now - there's a risk what's agreed will underwhelm 1/
That's the problem of having 28 countries in a bloc - some of whom hate Russia and some of whom are sympathetic to it - where unanimity is required.
Which are sympathetic to it?
Hungary is the main troublemaker, and it only takes one to ruin any initiative requiring unanimity.
Beyond that, AIUI Germany, Italy and Austria at least have all been heel-dragging on punishing Russia to a greater or lesser extent. Not necessarily sympathetic as a whole (though I dare say some of their right wing nutters love Russia as much as Farage does,) but reluctant to pay the price in terms of losing access to those gas imports.
BIDEN HAS BEEN PRESENTED WITH MENU OF OPTIONS FOR CYBERATTACKS DESIGNED TO DISRUPT RUSSIA’S ABILITY TO SUSTAIN MILITARY OPERATIONS IN UKRAINE -NBC NEWS
choose them all please. fuck those bastards up. EDIT: the military. I'm still not loving the idea of targeting civilian infra.
This is a shockingly quick escalation that goes beyond supplying arms and intel. It would for certain be met with direct retaliation by Putin against the West. And risks a further escalation thereafter. Feels like a bad dream where we’ve woken up in the early - mid 20th century but more terrifying because there are chains of events that lead to an extinction level event.
That would be quite a development. Looks like about a third of the socialist campaign group.
This could be the opportunity Starmer is looking for to weed out the far left.
Absolutely. The berks have played right into his hands.
I know from sources that McDonnell had been half-expecting to be expelled for months and has been sounding out the potential for a independent campaign.
A week ago I’d have said Keir needed to be careful to create a set of martyrs. But the Stop the War declaration was so batty, and now looks absolutely indecent in light of current events.
Made it nice and easy for the whips, I agree.
Latest from Patrick Maguire:
All but one of the Labour MPs who signed the Stop the War letter have now told the chief whip they have withdrawn their signatures
They were very foolish, but I can imagine that for most of them they truly did not think Russia would invade and so saw it as nothing more than an opportunity for some good old USA/UK reflexive criticism. Go to a protest, say something about NATO imperialism and get a cheer. The reality, which should have been obvious anyway, was a bit much for some of them - or at least not worth losing the whip over.
BIDEN HAS BEEN PRESENTED WITH MENU OF OPTIONS FOR CYBERATTACKS DESIGNED TO DISRUPT RUSSIA’S ABILITY TO SUSTAIN MILITARY OPERATIONS IN UKRAINE -NBC NEWS
choose them all please. fuck those bastards up. EDIT: the military. I'm still not loving the idea of targeting civilian infra.
This is a shockingly quick escalation that goes beyond supplying arms and intel. It would for certain be met with direct retaliation by Putin against the West. And risks a further escalation thereafter. Feels like a bad dream where we’ve woken up in the early - mid 20th century but more terrifying because there are chains of events that lead to an extinction level event.
Russia nd China have been doing cyberattacks across the West for years.
BIDEN HAS BEEN PRESENTED WITH MENU OF OPTIONS FOR CYBERATTACKS DESIGNED TO DISRUPT RUSSIA’S ABILITY TO SUSTAIN MILITARY OPERATIONS IN UKRAINE -NBC NEWS
Thread on the challenges facing the EU in agreeing a package:
Senior EU officials keep talking up the prospects of a "massive" package of sanctions against 🇷🇺 for its invasion of 🇺🇦 as EU leaders prepare to gather tonight in Bxl at 8pm CET. But - at least as of now - there's a risk what's agreed will underwhelm 1/
That's the problem of having 28 countries in a bloc - some of whom hate Russia and some of whom are sympathetic to it - where unanimity is required.
Which are sympathetic to it?
Hungary is the main troublemaker, and it only takes one to ruin any initiative requiring unanimity.
Beyond that, AIUI Germany, Italy and Austria at least have all been heel-dragging on punishing Russia to a greater or lesser extent. Not necessarily sympathetic as a whole (though I dare say some of their right wing nutters love Russia as much as Farage does,) but reluctant to pay the price in terms of losing access to those gas imports.
Hang on a minute. I’m sure I’ve read loads of comments that if Brexit hadn’t happened then the response to Putin would be stronger?!?
Am I correct to deduce that actually Brexit might have strengthened the potential for action against Putin because the UK now is free to act on its own rather than having its attempts watered down or stopped because other EU countries want to protect handbag sales and not allow their biggest bank to collapse because of all the loans backed by Swift guarantees?
Please someone help as I thought we were rubbish for leaving the EU and that the EU was masterful and perfect.
I think the best way to think of Putin is similar to a tiger behind a fence. As long as the fence is tall enough and sturdy we're safe enough and the tiger has no real means to cause harm but we all know there is the potential for it.
What Merkel has done is take down that fence because the tiger hadn't done any harm for years and now that tiger has gone tiger.
Is it the fault of the tiger or the fault of the idiot who blew up the fence?
Much as I like an analogy it doesn't really work because the tiger cannot help the way it acts, whereas Putin can, even if the fence should have been kept in good condition.
It also sounds a bit like the 'poking the bear' analogy which has been the subject of endless criticism. It absolves Russia and Putin of responsibility for what they have done.
- Cases down. rate of fall is slowing. Scotland continues to oscillate around R = 1 - In Hospital down - MV beds down. Halved in a month... - Admissions down. R solidly below 1 - Deaths down
Scotland "in hospital" has me tugging my collar a bit.
Today is the first reduction in Scottish hospitalisations since February 13. Since then, numbers have increased by 20%.
I have not been paying much attention , but the few times I did gthey seemed to be dropping and hardly anybody in ICU Red
BIDEN HAS BEEN PRESENTED WITH MENU OF OPTIONS FOR CYBERATTACKS DESIGNED TO DISRUPT RUSSIA’S ABILITY TO SUSTAIN MILITARY OPERATIONS IN UKRAINE -NBC NEWS
choose them all please. fuck those bastards up. EDIT: the military. I'm still not loving the idea of targeting civilian infra.
This is a shockingly quick escalation that goes beyond supplying arms and intel. It would for certain be met with direct retaliation by Putin against the West. And risks a further escalation thereafter. Feels like a bad dream where we’ve woken up in the early - mid 20th century but more terrifying because there are chains of events that lead to an extinction level event.
Russia nd China have been doing cyberattacks across the West for years.
Fuck em' if they can't take their own joke.
Putin is mad at the moment. This is by a very long stretch the most dangerous global moment since 1962.
BIDEN HAS BEEN PRESENTED WITH MENU OF OPTIONS FOR CYBERATTACKS DESIGNED TO DISRUPT RUSSIA’S ABILITY TO SUSTAIN MILITARY OPERATIONS IN UKRAINE -NBC NEWS
choose them all please. fuck those bastards up. EDIT: the military. I'm still not loving the idea of targeting civilian infra.
This is a shockingly quick escalation that goes beyond supplying arms and intel. It would for certain be met with direct retaliation by Putin against the West. And risks a further escalation thereafter. Feels like a bad dream where we’ve woken up in the early - mid 20th century but more terrifying because there are chains of events that lead to an extinction level event.
Russia nd China have been doing cyberattacks across the West for years.
Fuck em' if they can't take their own joke.
Some prodding and poking in the same way migs flirt with uk airspace. This would be something quite different.
This is going to have seismic implications for the world security structure. The west are now going to have to reassemble the barriers that were dismantled in the 1990s. That is likely to have significant political implications and ramifications. It is at least theoretical that unity in the West is going to be the order of the day and a lot of the divisions that have been the focus of the past 10 years are going to be forgotten. The geopolitical map could change drastically in the next 12 months.
Let's hope those petty divisions can be forgotten.
Your last sentence shows the inadequacy of your analogy; a tiger could be excused, Putin can not.
Which is a fair point, I'm talking about it from our perspective as the people on the other side of the fence from the tiger. The actions of Putin are not under our control, the actions of our defence against him are absolutely under our control. We've unilaterally disarmed ourselves and taken down defensive barriers like energy security. Knowing that Putin was likely to "go tiger" and that we'd have no real way of preventing him from doing so.
Interesting how Putin's invasion is apparently assisting his fellow Putinist, Boris Johnson.
Who enjoys posturing like a Churchillian while acting in power like a Chamberlainite.
In the finest true Tory tradition?
Boris is not a Putinist. He's many things, and I'm never shy of pointing out he's completely unfit. Not just for office, also a FLSoJ, but yeah unfit for office.
But Boris is not a fascist like Putin. He's not an imperialist despite the stupid things he's said in the past about the historical empire. Boris is one of the worst parliamentarians in the UK of any party, but he's a million times better than Putin.
Your argument being that incompetence is better than malice?
BIDEN HAS BEEN PRESENTED WITH MENU OF OPTIONS FOR CYBERATTACKS DESIGNED TO DISRUPT RUSSIA’S ABILITY TO SUSTAIN MILITARY OPERATIONS IN UKRAINE -NBC NEWS
This is about so much more than Brexit, what caused it and what has happened subsequently between the UK and the EU. Poland, Hungary and, to a lesser extent, Slovenia are currently moving swiftly towards authoritarianism. Separatism has set the agenda in Spain for the last seven years or so. The Balkans are a tinderbox. The US is on the verge of giving Republicans, who believe the outcome of the 2020 presidential election was fixed, a majority in Congress, quite possibly on a minority of the national vote. And so on.
Not today's most important topic, but let's be accurate. Slovenia is not moving towards authoritarianism. It has a wretched authoritarian and crooked PM, who is hopefully seeing the final weeks of a very long and shitty political career. Even after appealing to the last vestiges of the now-aging religious right he will lose the next election, and Slovenia will remain a very fine, well-educated bastion of liberal democracy (and indeed a lot more democratic than here).
Geopolitical importance: virtually zero. ;-)
Slovenia was always the most liberal part of the old Yugoslavia and the first federal republic to challenge the communist power.
- Cases down. rate of fall is slowing. Scotland continues to oscillate around R = 1 - In Hospital down - MV beds down. Halved in a month... - Admissions down. R solidly below 1 - Deaths down
Scotland "in hospital" has me tugging my collar a bit.
Today is the first reduction in Scottish hospitalisations since February 13. Since then, numbers have increased by 20%.
Hmmm....
Yes which it is why I find it worrying that "in hospital" has done this
I would have expected "In hospital" to have kept heading downwards.
That would suggest
- Longer term patients? - Our famous "found COVID in hospital" thing?
Potentially a bit of BA2, plus slightly lower immunity after stricter restrictions for the last year or so.
At our #NATO Summit tomorrow our close partners #Finland, #Sweden & the #EU will join us to address the greatest crisis for European security in a generation."
I’d love it if Gerhard Schroeder was effectively sanctioned.
That guy has been taking the piss since the moment he left office.
What he's done should really be considered a defection.
100%. As horrific as developments have been, I do appreciate how it is bringing together PBers across the political spectrum. It's like that point in a complex TV series where all the good guys from the various factions unite against the true evil.
A truly terrible day primarily for Ukraine and its people but for the rest of Europe as well. The ghosts of 1956 and 1968 have come back for a visit and for all that has happened, we seem locked in the Cold War embrace.
As someone who seriously thought Putin would not be as stupid as to engage in military action, I admit I was wrong, Johnson's nasty cop routine failed, Macron's nice cop routine failed, all the western leaders failed to deter Putin and we can debate at leisure over where and how we "got it wrong".
For now, the priority must, regrettably, to contain the conflict within Ukraine - the prospect of a shooting war between NATO and Russia and where that could potentially lead is too awful to contemplate so we have to forget "air support" or any kind of practical help.
All we can offer is help at the humanitarian level - food and medical supplies as well as temporary shelters for the refugees crossing into Romania, Moldova (and that's another concern) and other border states. Perhaps we can offer asylum to some of the refugees and perhaps we can go further and provide places to live and utilise the skills many well-educated Ukrainians will bring.
Let's also not play about with sanctions - they have to hurt us in order to be hurting Moscow. Any economic suffering will be as nothing compared to what Ukraine is and will endure but it will be our (and I include the EU and the US in this) contribution, the economic battlefield on which we hold some advantages.
Going forward, I suspect Putin and his ilk will, once Ukraine is "normalised" as a Russian fiefdom like Belarus, want to restore normal diplomatic and economic relations. We must resist this - there will be siren calls urging British business to get back to dealing with Russia but what message would that send? Sanctions will and must stay until the last Russian soldier and/or adviser leaves Ukraine and the country returns to the democratic fold (and it should be our intention to see Belarus freed from its autocratic Putin stooge).
I think the best way to think of Putin is similar to a tiger behind a fence. As long as the fence is tall enough and sturdy we're safe enough and the tiger has no real means to cause harm but we all know there is the potential for it.
What Merkel has done is take down that fence because the tiger hadn't done any harm for years and now that tiger has gone tiger.
Is it the fault of the tiger or the fault of the idiot who blew up the fence?
- Cases down. rate of fall is slowing. Scotland continues to oscillate around R = 1 - In Hospital down - MV beds down. Halved in a month... - Admissions down. R solidly below 1 - Deaths down
Very good for covid but how many minutes to midnight is it?
BIDEN HAS BEEN PRESENTED WITH MENU OF OPTIONS FOR CYBERATTACKS DESIGNED TO DISRUPT RUSSIA’S ABILITY TO SUSTAIN MILITARY OPERATIONS IN UKRAINE -NBC NEWS
choose them all please. fuck those bastards up. EDIT: the military. I'm still not loving the idea of targeting civilian infra.
This is a shockingly quick escalation that goes beyond supplying arms and intel. It would for certain be met with direct retaliation by Putin against the West. And risks a further escalation thereafter. Feels like a bad dream where we’ve woken up in the early - mid 20th century but more terrifying because there are chains of events that lead to an extinction level event.
Russia nd China have been doing cyberattacks across the West for years.
Fuck em' if they can't take their own joke.
Some prodding and poking in the same way migs flirt with uk airspace. This would be something quite different.
At our #NATO Summit tomorrow our close partners #Finland, #Sweden & the #EU will join us to address the greatest crisis for European security in a generation."
I had a vague memory that there was a big solar plant next to Chernobyl with lots of grid connections. Wondered if that was maybe why Russia was interested in it. And after a quick google discovered that yes, there is a big solar plant there. And it's owned by China. There's a Reuters piece on the start of it here :
Russian oligarchs are already emailing UK journos demanding they withdraw references to criminality/Putin links. Boris Johnson should change UK's insane libel law.
Could this become economically existential for 🇮🇹/€Zone? The spread between 🇮🇹&🇩🇪 10yr bonds is already the highest it has been since 2020. Energy sanctions = increase costs = higher inflation = more aggressive monetary tightening = a big problem for 🇮🇹 debt sustainability 5/
BIDEN HAS BEEN PRESENTED WITH MENU OF OPTIONS FOR CYBERATTACKS DESIGNED TO DISRUPT RUSSIA’S ABILITY TO SUSTAIN MILITARY OPERATIONS IN UKRAINE -NBC NEWS
choose them all please. fuck those bastards up. EDIT: the military. I'm still not loving the idea of targeting civilian infra.
This is a shockingly quick escalation that goes beyond supplying arms and intel. It would for certain be met with direct retaliation by Putin against the West. And risks a further escalation thereafter. Feels like a bad dream where we’ve woken up in the early - mid 20th century but more terrifying because there are chains of events that lead to an extinction level event.
Russia nd China have been doing cyberattacks across the West for years.
Fuck em' if they can't take their own joke.
Some prodding and poking in the same way migs flirt with uk airspace. This would be something quite different.
No - some of it has been actual attacks.
On infrastructure.
However this would be a publicly announced and signposted programme of escalation, in the middle of a conflict, with an unpredictable actor, rather than ad hoc attacks.
It doesn't necessarily come under the same kind of heading of physical military attacks, but in the current situation any decision like this needs to be weighed up EXTREMELY carefully,
Seems Putin is standing alone. Slightly embarrassing to have to watch Johnson chuntering in front of his Union Jack. He's probably less popular with the UK population than Putin is with his. As for the Trump fans....God knows what they make of their idol's choices. It's a complicated world. I'm putting my faith in the EU. They tend to get most things right and I believe in their instincts
The Independent @Independent Russia can compete in Eurovision despite Ukraine invasion, organisers say
They have fecking kidding me for quite some time. I never considered Vladivostok to be part of Europe. Time for a general agreement and declaration between European nations that clarifies* meaningfully the geographical boundary of Europe to the effect that Russia is considered to be an Asian rather than a European country and ineligible for participation in any form of "European" competition, whether it be from Eurovision to football.
So, for example, it's not just a question of UEFA finding an alternative venue to St Petersburg for the final of the ECL but also stripping Russian teams from the right to compete in any European football competition whatsoever. Backed by an agreement to collectively between European governments to take punitive action sufficient to pursuade UEFA if it fails to toe the line.
*Edited from "redraws" because on reflection Russia has never been part of Europe
I think the best way to think of Putin is similar to a tiger behind a fence. As long as the fence is tall enough and sturdy we're safe enough and the tiger has no real means to cause harm but we all know there is the potential for it.
What Merkel has done is take down that fence because the tiger hadn't done any harm for years and now that tiger has gone tiger.
Is it the fault of the tiger or the fault of the idiot who blew up the fence?
Similar mindset to blaming regulators not bankers for the financial crash. I don't like it.
⚠️ Confirmed: Multiple government websites in #Russia including the Kremlin and the State Duma have fallen offline; the incident comes amid a spate of cyberattacks targeting neighboring Ukraine 📉
This is about so much more than Brexit, what caused it and what has happened subsequently between the UK and the EU. Poland, Hungary and, to a lesser extent, Slovenia are currently moving swiftly towards authoritarianism. Separatism has set the agenda in Spain for the last seven years or so. The Balkans are a tinderbox. The US is on the verge of giving Republicans, who believe the outcome of the 2020 presidential election was fixed, a majority in Congress, quite possibly on a minority of the national vote. And so on.
Not today's most important topic, but let's be accurate. Slovenia is not moving towards authoritarianism. It has a wretched authoritarian and crooked PM, who is hopefully seeing the final weeks of a very long and shitty political career. Even after appealing to the last vestiges of the now-aging religious right he will lose the next election, and Slovenia will remain a very fine, well-educated bastion of liberal democracy (and indeed a lot more democratic than here).
Why is literally NO ONE talking about a pre-emptive First Strike on Russia?
Forget this SWIFT nonsense, just take em out. Nuke the Whole Show. Led by the UK, with France and the USA behind us, just toast the entire country. Turn it into weird crystallised rock, with tiny bits of algae as the only life remaining.
Seems Putin is standing alone. Slightly embarrassing to have to watch Johnson chuntering in front of his Union Jack. He's probably less popular with the UK population than Putin is with his. As for the Trump fans....God knows what they make of their idol's choices. It's a complicated world. I'm putting my faith in the EU. They tend to get most things right and I believe in their instincts
1) "Standing alone" What did you expect?
2) I'd rather have an unpopular leader that we can get rid of...
I think the best way to think of Putin is similar to a tiger behind a fence. As long as the fence is tall enough and sturdy we're safe enough and the tiger has no real means to cause harm but we all know there is the potential for it.
What Merkel has done is take down that fence because the tiger hadn't done any harm for years and now that tiger has gone tiger.
Is it the fault of the tiger or the fault of the idiot who blew up the fence?
Similar mindset to blaming regulators not bankers for the financial crash. I don't like it.
We do not ascribe intelligent agency to the tiger, and so absolve it for its behaviour. It is unacceptable to excuse Putin and those who benefit from enabling him in that way.
There is also plenty of time for criticism of past policy in the West. But again, that (largely) does not help address the current crisis.
Seems Putin is standing alone. Slightly embarrassing to have to watch Johnson chuntering in front of his Union Jack. He's probably less popular with the UK population than Putin is with his. As for the Trump fans....God knows what they make of their idol's choices. It's a complicated world. I'm putting my faith in the EU. They tend to get most things right and I believe in their instincts
Seems Putin is standing alone. Slightly embarrassing to have to watch Johnson chuntering in front of his Union Jack. He's probably less popular with the UK population than Putin is with his. As for the Trump fans....God knows what they make of their idol's choices. It's a complicated world. I'm putting my faith in the EU. They tend to get most things right and I believe in their instincts
Sadly it is the EU who are in crisis tonight as they pay the price for selling their energy economy to Russia with Germany absolutely in hock, and France and Italy unable to agree to US and UK demands to throw Russia out of swift as it would cost then €30 billion or more
Why is literally NO ONE talking about a pre-emptive First Strike on Russia?
Forget this SWIFT nonsense, just take em out. Nuke the Whole Show. Led by the UK, with France and the USA behind us, just toast the entire country. Turn it into weird crystallised rock, with tiny bits of algae as the only life remaining.
I think the best way to think of Putin is similar to a tiger behind a fence. As long as the fence is tall enough and sturdy we're safe enough and the tiger has no real means to cause harm but we all know there is the potential for it.
What Merkel has done is take down that fence because the tiger hadn't done any harm for years and now that tiger has gone tiger.
Is it the fault of the tiger or the fault of the idiot who blew up the fence?
Similar mindset to blaming regulators not bankers for the financial crash. I don't like it.
You don't think regulators have a duty to regulate competently, and should attract blame if they don't? A curious view, if I may say so.
⚠️ Confirmed: Multiple government websites in #Russia including the Kremlin and the State Duma have fallen offline; the incident comes amid a spate of cyberattacks targeting neighboring Ukraine 📉
Why is literally NO ONE talking about a pre-emptive First Strike on Russia?
Forget this SWIFT nonsense, just take em out. Nuke the Whole Show. Led by the UK, with France and the USA behind us, just toast the entire country. Turn it into weird crystallised rock, with tiny bits of algae as the only life remaining.
Didn't expect Chernobyl to ever make the headlines again. I can remember when it was in the news the first time when I was about 6 years old because it was so terrifying.
Could this become economically existential for 🇮🇹/€Zone? The spread between 🇮🇹&🇩🇪 10yr bonds is already the highest it has been since 2020. Energy sanctions = increase costs = higher inflation = more aggressive monetary tightening = a big problem for 🇮🇹 debt sustainability 5/
Now, it is true the spread with German bonds widened (German bond yields fell more). But the Italian government doesn't care what price the Germans borrow at, only what price they borrow at.
And, FWIW, I think the ECB will do exactly the same as they did with Covid - they'll continue to allow Eurozone members to run extremely loose fiscal policies, and they will continue to prop up bond markets if required.
Much more of an issue for Italy is that - while they buy virtually no gas from Russia - they do buy a lot from North Africa, and it's mostly on oil price linked contracts. The rising price of oil is therefore going to be a serious problem for their economy.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 14m This is the problem. How much longer is Starmer going to keep playing whack-a-mole with these guys, and show them the door.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 14m This is the problem. How much longer is Starmer going to keep playing whack-a-mole with these guys, and show them the door.
Good old Dan Hodges. We're at risk of incineration, and he's worrying about internal Labour Party politics.
Why is literally NO ONE talking about a pre-emptive First Strike on Russia?
Forget this SWIFT nonsense, just take em out. Nuke the Whole Show. Led by the UK, with France and the USA behind us, just toast the entire country. Turn it into weird crystallised rock, with tiny bits of algae as the only life remaining.
Sorted
Is the drinks cabinet open early, Leon ?
He just says it to provoke a response and be the centre of attention.
Why is literally NO ONE talking about a pre-emptive First Strike on Russia?
Forget this SWIFT nonsense, just take em out. Nuke the Whole Show. Led by the UK, with France and the USA behind us, just toast the entire country. Turn it into weird crystallised rock, with tiny bits of algae as the only life remaining.
Sorted
1) humanity 2) sobriety 3) submarines 4) Russia is rumoured to have a doomsday device like in that documentary with Peter Sellers
Why is literally NO ONE talking about a pre-emptive First Strike on Russia?
Forget this SWIFT nonsense, just take em out. Nuke the Whole Show. Led by the UK, with France and the USA behind us, just toast the entire country. Turn it into weird crystallised rock, with tiny bits of algae as the only life remaining.
Sorted
Is the drinks cabinet open early, Leon ?
Stony cold sober. Just taking a shrewd and ruthless view. I believe I have the full support of Gary Lineker, who is asking the same question on The Twitter. If we are to spend "trillions" on nuclear weapons, why don't we bloody use them?
Further economic sanctions on Russian interests in the UK: 67% Sending more troops to NATO countries in Eastern Europe: 45% (net +15) Sending troops to Ukraine: 22% Air strikes on Russian forces in Ukraine: 18%
"I like all this good stuff, so long as someone else pays for it." Same as everything else. Most people are shits.
Too many people expect services that would need a 40% income tax rate, but only want to pay a 10% income tax rate. They don’t listen to the reasons why they can’t have both, because Netflix, Twitter and Sky Sports don’t tell them.
Why is literally NO ONE talking about a pre-emptive First Strike on Russia?
Forget this SWIFT nonsense, just take em out. Nuke the Whole Show. Led by the UK, with France and the USA behind us, just toast the entire country. Turn it into weird crystallised rock, with tiny bits of algae as the only life remaining.
Why is literally NO ONE talking about a pre-emptive First Strike on Russia?
Forget this SWIFT nonsense, just take em out. Nuke the Whole Show. Led by the UK, with France and the USA behind us, just toast the entire country. Turn it into weird crystallised rock, with tiny bits of algae as the only life remaining.
Sorted
Is the drinks cabinet open early, Leon ?
Not only open but already emptied.
Mine's open. Purely medicinal mind. But I'm not yet at the nuke all of Russia stage yet.
Could there be an economic realignment in Europe, with Germany’s dominance being reduced?
The Germans are going to be forced to pick a side here. The cancellation of Nord Stream 2 is an encouraging sign but it does nothing with regard to existing trade.
The Poles and especially the Baltic States must be terrified right now. If Germany (and its fellow incrementalists heel draggers) won't back them by taking the pain on ceasing to buy Russian energy, then it'll hole both NATO and the EU below the water line.
Well, it will make no difference at all if Germany were to cease buying Russian oil.
Oil is fungible. If the Germans don't buy Russian oil, the Vietnamese or the Chinese or the Chileans will.
All that happens is that Europe buy from Saudi Arabia instead of Russia. And the Chinese buy from Russia instead of Saudi Arabia.
The only way you could make it work would be if *everybody* stopped buying Russian oil. And as Russia is 10% of world oil production, that would be a massive shock to oil prices - I'd reckon you could see them move to $180-200. (It would also be very bad news for natural gas prices, as US drilling would shift almost entirely over to oil to benefit from the high prices.)
Natural gas is a different story. Western Europe could wean itself off Russian gas on a two or three year view. It would be expensive, but it could be done. It would, however, require a willingness to enter into long term LNG supply contracts, something that the UK in particular has been very unwilling to do.
Alternatively the Europeans including the British could stop being so bloody self destructive and stop blocking the exploitation of our own gas reserves. There is still very large amounts of gas to be exploited in the UK, Netherlands and Denmark even without going near fracking but successive Governments are putting more and more obstacles in the way of extracting it. This ranges from the UK putting more barriers in the way of exploration and the development of new fields to Denmark and Ireland ending drilling for hydrocarbons completely. It makes bugger all difference to how much gas we ned to burn in Europe, it just means we have to rely more and more on getting it from places that not only use it as a geo-political tool against us but have almost non existent environmental and safety standards.
It is, as I say, one of the most self destructive policies on the 21st century.
The UK Government has also made a complete pigs ear of hydrocarbon taxation. Firms hate investing here because they're not just taking engineering, price, and geological risk... but taxation risk too.
Almost every exec I've spoken to prefers the Norwegian model, because even though they take 80% of the profit on every barrel of oil, it's a system that encourages drilling, exploration and remediation of old wells.
Yep this has been one of my bug bears for many years. The joy of the Norwegian system is that although the tax take is high it is remarkably consistent over the years. Basically in Norway when you are about to invest a couple of billion pounds in a field development you know that when it comes on stream in 8 or 10 years time the tax and legislation regime has a good chance of being the same as it is now. It allows for long term planning and investment. Unlike the UK which changes the rules far more often than it changes Governments.
I wonder whether it would be different if the oil and gas was in the English Channel instead of the North Sea. Edit - thinks - no it would make no difference to short term government thinking.
Why is literally NO ONE talking about a pre-emptive First Strike on Russia?
Forget this SWIFT nonsense, just take em out. Nuke the Whole Show. Led by the UK, with France and the USA behind us, just toast the entire country. Turn it into weird crystallised rock, with tiny bits of algae as the only life remaining.
Sorted
Is the drinks cabinet open early, Leon ?
He just says it to provoke a response and be the centre of attention.
That would describe 97.3% of comments on politicalbetting, except the ones by Roger which are so embarrassingly stupid everyone turns away
Who posts a comment on PB hoping for no response and zero attention?
This is about so much more than Brexit, what caused it and what has happened subsequently between the UK and the EU. Poland, Hungary and, to a lesser extent, Slovenia are currently moving swiftly towards authoritarianism. Separatism has set the agenda in Spain for the last seven years or so. The Balkans are a tinderbox. The US is on the verge of giving Republicans, who believe the outcome of the 2020 presidential election was fixed, a majority in Congress, quite possibly on a minority of the national vote. And so on.
Not today's most important topic, but let's be accurate. Slovenia is not moving towards authoritarianism. It has a wretched authoritarian and crooked PM, who is hopefully seeing the final weeks of a very long and shitty political career. Even after appealing to the last vestiges of the now-aging religious right he will lose the next election, and Slovenia will remain a very fine, well-educated bastion of liberal democracy (and indeed a lot more democratic than here).
Why is literally NO ONE talking about a pre-emptive First Strike on Russia?
Forget this SWIFT nonsense, just take em out. Nuke the Whole Show. Led by the UK, with France and the USA behind us, just toast the entire country. Turn it into weird crystallised rock, with tiny bits of algae as the only life remaining.
Sorted
Is the drinks cabinet open early, Leon ?
He just says it to provoke a response and be the centre of attention.
Why is literally NO ONE talking about a pre-emptive First Strike on Russia?
Forget this SWIFT nonsense, just take em out. Nuke the Whole Show. Led by the UK, with France and the USA behind us, just toast the entire country. Turn it into weird crystallised rock, with tiny bits of algae as the only life remaining.
Sorted
Is the drinks cabinet open early, Leon ?
Stony cold sober.
That's scarier.
FFS I'm joking!
Black humour is all that is left
That said, I have always been intrigued by the concept of First Strike, and it is an integral part of the philosophy of strategic nuclear deterrence. You need to have nukes that will SURVIVE a first strike, hence our submarines
Clearly I do not think Russia's actions - however medieval and repulsive - merit us turning 140m mostly innocent Russians into radiated vapour
Why is literally NO ONE talking about a pre-emptive First Strike on Russia?
Forget this SWIFT nonsense, just take em out. Nuke the Whole Show. Led by the UK, with France and the USA behind us, just toast the entire country. Turn it into weird crystallised rock, with tiny bits of algae as the only life remaining.
Sorted
Is the drinks cabinet open early, Leon ?
Stony cold sober. Just taking a shrewd and ruthless view. I believe I have the full support of Gary Lineker, who is asking the same question on The Twitter. If we are to spend "trillions" on nuclear weapons, why don't we bloody use them?
"Four people familiar with deliberations told the news channel that US intelligence and military cyber warriors are proposing the use of American cyber weapons “on a scale never before contemplated”.
Among the options are disrupting internet connectivity across Russia, shutting off electric power, and tampering with railroad switches to hamper Russia’s ability to re-supply its forces, three of the sources said.
One person briefed on the matter said:
"You could do everything from slow the trains down to have them fall off the tracks."
The US intelligence community. I sincerely hope we're not entering Dr Strangelove territory.
At our #NATO Summit tomorrow our close partners #Finland, #Sweden & the #EU will join us to address the greatest crisis for European security in a generation."
Biden reads the autocue like somebody who has no idea what they are saying or what it means.
He is not convincing and it is rather scary
He looks like a frightened old man desperately mumbling his words super fast, so he can go back to his slippers ASAP. My 87 year old Dad is more coherent and trenchant than this
Biden reads the autocue like somebody who has no idea what they are saying or what it means.
He is not convincing and it is rather scary
It reminds me of when children learn to read, they know how to say the words, but not really any idea of the context, so the rythym and intonation is totally off.
Sigh. I really wish America had a more inspiring or even sentient POTUS than Biden, right now.
Putin has chosen his moment well, in terms of weak western leadership
What difference would it have made, seriously? We've danced a dance the last few weeks but the outcome has been inevitable.
We can and no doubt will debate when mistakes were made and what else we could and should have done. None of that matters now.
We have to stop the conflict going beyond Ukraine and ensuring in economic terms Russia pays a heavy price and if we have to pay a price too, so be it.
Comments
Beyond that, AIUI Germany, Italy and Austria at least have all been heel-dragging on punishing Russia to a greater or lesser extent. Not necessarily sympathetic as a whole (though I dare say some of their right wing nutters love Russia as much as Farage does,) but reluctant to pay the price in terms of losing access to those gas imports.
Fuck em' if they can't take their own joke.
Am I correct to deduce that actually Brexit might have strengthened the potential for action against Putin because the UK now is free to act on its own rather than having its attempts watered down or stopped because other EU countries want to protect handbag sales and not allow their biggest bank to collapse because of all the loans backed by Swift guarantees?
Please someone help as I thought we were rubbish for leaving the EU and that the EU was masterful and perfect.
That guy has been taking the piss since the moment he left office.
We need to think very carefully.
Looks like Diane Abbott will withdraw her signature as well.
I don’t see anyone arguing to the contrary.
Only hope I’d be brave enough to do the same, were I in the same position.
At our #NATO Summit tomorrow our close partners #Finland, #Sweden & the #EU will join us to address the greatest crisis for European security in a generation."
https://twitter.com/jensstoltenberg/status/1496891943011315712
Some former European leaders resign from Russian corporate boards. Still waiting for Schröder, Fillon, DSK, Karin Kneissl...
https://twitter.com/SylvieKauffmann/status/1496911251074519040
A truly terrible day primarily for Ukraine and its people but for the rest of Europe as well. The ghosts of 1956 and 1968 have come back for a visit and for all that has happened, we seem locked in the Cold War embrace.
As someone who seriously thought Putin would not be as stupid as to engage in military action, I admit I was wrong, Johnson's nasty cop routine failed, Macron's nice cop routine failed, all the western leaders failed to deter Putin and we can debate at leisure over where and how we "got it wrong".
For now, the priority must, regrettably, to contain the conflict within Ukraine - the prospect of a shooting war between NATO and Russia and where that could potentially lead is too awful to contemplate so we have to forget "air support" or any kind of practical help.
All we can offer is help at the humanitarian level - food and medical supplies as well as temporary shelters for the refugees crossing into Romania, Moldova (and that's another concern) and other border states. Perhaps we can offer asylum to some of the refugees and perhaps we can go further and provide places to live and utilise the skills many well-educated Ukrainians will bring.
Let's also not play about with sanctions - they have to hurt us in order to be hurting Moscow. Any economic suffering will be as nothing compared to what Ukraine is and will endure but it will be our (and I include the EU and the US in this) contribution, the economic battlefield on which we hold some advantages.
Going forward, I suspect Putin and his ilk will, once Ukraine is "normalised" as a Russian fiefdom like Belarus, want to restore normal diplomatic and economic relations. We must resist this - there will be siren calls urging British business to get back to dealing with Russia but what message would that send? Sanctions will and must stay until the last Russian soldier and/or adviser leaves Ukraine and the country returns to the democratic fold (and it should be our intention to see Belarus freed from its autocratic Putin stooge).
On infrastructure.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-solar-chernobyl-idUSKBN13G0DM
Tin-foil hat bingo....
https://twitter.com/TomRtweets/status/1496912044595228672
https://twitter.com/mij_europe/status/1496892893801373697?s=21
UK PM Boris Johnson pushes ‘very hard’ for move while Germany warns against it ahead of emergency EU meeting" (£)
https://www.ft.com/content/69f72de5-d727-496d-9f9d-316db7bdaf03
Hat and coat.
It doesn't necessarily come under the same kind of heading of physical military attacks, but in the current situation any decision like this needs to be weighed up EXTREMELY carefully,
So, for example, it's not just a question of UEFA finding an alternative venue to St Petersburg for the final of the ECL but also stripping Russian teams from the right to compete in any European football competition whatsoever. Backed by an agreement to collectively between European governments to take punitive action sufficient to pursuade UEFA if it fails to toe the line.
*Edited from "redraws" because on reflection Russia has never been part of Europe
https://twitter.com/netblocks/status/1496904885455007749
Forget this SWIFT nonsense, just take em out. Nuke the Whole Show. Led by the UK, with France and the USA behind us, just toast the entire country. Turn it into weird crystallised rock, with tiny bits of algae as the only life remaining.
Sorted
2) I'd rather have an unpopular leader that we can get rid of...
3) EU have just scuppered the Swift thing.
There is also plenty of time for criticism of past policy in the West. But again, that (largely) does not help address the current crisis.
You need to take off your blinkers
Now, it is true the spread with German bonds widened (German bond yields fell more). But the Italian government doesn't care what price the Germans borrow at, only what price they borrow at.
And, FWIW, I think the ECB will do exactly the same as they did with Covid - they'll continue to allow Eurozone members to run extremely loose fiscal policies, and they will continue to prop up bond markets if required.
Much more of an issue for Italy is that - while they buy virtually no gas from Russia - they do buy a lot from North Africa, and it's mostly on oil price linked contracts. The rising price of oil is therefore going to be a serious problem for their economy.
(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges
·
14m
This is the problem. How much longer is Starmer going to keep playing whack-a-mole with these guys, and show them the door.
I know twitter isn't middle england but I think he has totally blown it this time.
2) sobriety
3) submarines
4) Russia is rumoured to have a doomsday device like in that documentary with Peter Sellers
@zerohedge
German chancellor Olaf Scholz warned Boris Johnson that Germany would not support kicking Russia out of SWIFT, and neither would the EU: FT"
https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1496876639308992512
Germany has sold her soul to Russia
Who posts a comment on PB hoping for no response and zero attention?
Black humour is all that is left
That said, I have always been intrigued by the concept of First Strike, and it is an integral part of the philosophy of strategic nuclear deterrence. You need to have nukes that will SURVIVE a first strike, hence our submarines
Clearly I do not think Russia's actions - however medieval and repulsive - merit us turning 140m mostly innocent Russians into radiated vapour
Among the options are disrupting internet connectivity across Russia, shutting off electric power, and tampering with railroad switches to hamper Russia’s ability to re-supply its forces, three of the sources said.
One person briefed on the matter said:
"You could do everything from slow the trains down to have them fall off the tracks."
The US intelligence community. I sincerely hope we're not entering Dr Strangelove territory.
Putin has chosen his moment well, in terms of weak western leadership
What a sad state of affairs for the West
@Global_Mil_Info
45s
Per an adviser to the Ukrainian Presidential Office, Hostomel airfield is back under Ukrianian control.
https://twitter.com/Global_Mil_Info/status/1496921860939948036
https://www.janes.com/defence-news/news-detail/the-ukraine-crisis-a-failure-of-deterrence-or-just-the-kick-the-west-needed
We can and no doubt will debate when mistakes were made and what else we could and should have done. None of that matters now.
We have to stop the conflict going beyond Ukraine and ensuring in economic terms Russia pays a heavy price and if we have to pay a price too, so be it.
Sounds like a line in the sand strategy going on here to be a certain extent.
Swift is an option but one Europe does not want to take