Boris Johnson’s satisfaction rating has hit a record low amid the "Partygate" storm - falling to the same level as Theresa May’s worst score in her final months, exclusive @IpsosMORI poll for @EveningStandard finds... standard.co.uk/news/politics
Labour lead still under 10% (and the previous poll from Ipsos Mori was 3rd-10th December last year, mainly before partygate)
You need to bear in mind there's a lot of Green votes for Labour to squeeze. At least half of that vote will go Labour at an actual GE.
If Corbyn is not reinstated by Starmer? Wishful thinking.
Plus remember Boris still has RefUK to squeeze further
Yes Boris is going to squeeze further a party that is polling so dreadfully they're not even named in the results. 😂
You'll grasp any straw won't you. You're the only person on the site who actually thinks RefUK are a serious party or relevant at all.
Labour will squeeze Green voters on the day. No one on the left will give up a chance of kicking Boris and the Tories out if it looks like they can. If someone like Rishi takes over and get the Tories up to 41 or 42 points Labour will struggle to do it.
You honestly think Sunak is going to get 41% to 42% after forcing skilled workers to take unskilled jobs just a month after redundancy from reports today and after he will responsible for the NI rise in April? Not to mention Sunak backed Brexit just like Boris so he is not going to appeal to remainers Cameron won but no longer voting Tory as he will not appeal to the redwall Boris won in 2019
Yes, competence will go a long way to restoring the Tory score. His ceiling is probably around there and people are still willing to give the Tories a listen, just not Boris.
Last poll with a Sunak led Tories had the Tories on 34% not over 40% and that was before his UC announcement today hitting skilled workers made redundant
On that poll I think we could see Labour getting something like 43-45% and the Tories something like 33-34% with a bit of swing back. Labour are in majority territory, though maybe just a small one. Something that was unimaginable in the aftermath of the 2019 election. That's how badly Boris has blown it.
I don't think it'll be a majority, but a 2010 reversal is on the cards at the moment. Boris Brown...
Davey & Starmer are politically close enough, and Labour may get enough that he may not need the Nats...
Anything like a 10% lead will give Labour a majority. Their vote will naturally become more efficient as they pick up marginals in a big wave. Remember in 2005 people were wondering whether it would ever be possible for the Tories to win a majority again such was the inefficiency of their vote. Yet in 2019 on the same boundaries they won an 80 seat majority and now have a highly efficient vote.
Boris has opened the door to a Labour majority, even with a dud like Starmer as leader.
"For all his failings, the Prime Minister knows this and has a keener sense of human frailty than many. Look at his last 2 X pmqs outings. They are all about the projection of strength and not giving a toss, mixed with a Johnsonian dollop of humour to diffuse the earnest.
"His subtext is clear. I'm not going anywhere no matter how bad it gets. You didn't elect me for ethics. So to get me out you're going to have to take me out"
That is a good thread. If he does squeak staying on, it will show the party his ability to fight rearguard, and in that circumstance I think 2024 survival would be likely.
Because that election, with Boris in charge, is going to be just as desperate a rearguard for the Tories as this whole affair.
But I think ultimately that is why he will be vonc'ed - once the letters come in the dawning will be that it's now or never (not have another bite next year). Expect to hear 'loyal' ministers strangely over-emphasising how 'Boris will.lead us into the next General Election', even when that wasn't the question asked, perhaps with some other scarily hubristic predictions of Boris's great deeds.
Sion Simon, Tory ministers in the next few weeks are coming for your special place in PB history.
On that poll I think we could see Labour getting something like 43-45% and the Tories something like 33-34% with a bit of swing back. Labour are in majority territory, though maybe just a small one. Something that was unimaginable in the aftermath of the 2019 election. That's how badly Boris has blown it.
I don't think it'll be a majority, but a 2010 reversal is on the cards at the moment. Boris Brown...
Davey & Starmer are politically close enough, and Labour may get enough that he may not need the Nats...
Brown was undefeated at the ballot box, only Ed Miliband and Corbyn saw the Tories get a majority
Ah, yes, 2010, that famous Labour not-defeat when they were reduced to their lowest number of MPs for over two decades.
Boris Johnson’s satisfaction rating has hit a record low amid the "Partygate" storm - falling to the same level as Theresa May’s worst score in her final months, exclusive @IpsosMORI poll for @EveningStandard finds... standard.co.uk/news/politics
Labour lead still under 10% (and the previous poll from Ipsos Mori was 3rd-10th December last year, mainly before partygate)
You need to bear in mind there's a lot of Green votes for Labour to squeeze. At least half of that vote will go Labour at an actual GE.
If Corbyn is not reinstated by Starmer? Wishful thinking.
Plus remember Boris still has RefUK to squeeze further
Yes Boris is going to squeeze further a party that is polling so dreadfully they're not even named in the results. 😂
You'll grasp any straw won't you. You're the only person on the site who actually thinks RefUK are a serious party or relevant at all.
Labour will squeeze Green voters on the day. No one on the left will give up a chance of kicking Boris and the Tories out if it looks like they can. If someone like Rishi takes over and get the Tories up to 41 or 42 points Labour will struggle to do it.
You honestly think Sunak is going to get 41% to 42% after forcing skilled workers to take unskilled jobs just a month after redundancy from reports today and after he will responsible for the NI rise in April? Not to mention Sunak backed Brexit just like Boris so he is not going to appeal to remainers Cameron won but no longer voting Tory as he will not appeal to the redwall Boris won in 2019
People may not like the decisions that Sunak is making as Chancellor, but it's perfectly possible to win whilst being unpopular midterm for hard decisions made by a chancellor (Poll tax/1992). What people won't accept is rank hypocrisy and incompetence - (Back to basics/1997)
Major scrapped Thatcher's poll tax.
We face the Sunak NI rise in April and Sunak's UC change today hitting skilled workers.
Boris Johnson’s satisfaction rating has hit a record low amid the "Partygate" storm - falling to the same level as Theresa May’s worst score in her final months, exclusive @IpsosMORI poll for @EveningStandard finds... standard.co.uk/news/politics
Labour lead still under 10% (and the previous poll from Ipsos Mori was 3rd-10th December last year, mainly before partygate)
You need to bear in mind there's a lot of Green votes for Labour to squeeze. At least half of that vote will go Labour at an actual GE.
If Corbyn is not reinstated by Starmer? Wishful thinking.
Plus remember Boris still has RefUK to squeeze further
Yes Boris is going to squeeze further a party that is polling so dreadfully they're not even named in the results. 😂
You'll grasp any straw won't you. You're the only person on the site who actually thinks RefUK are a serious party or relevant at all.
'However, even as the “parties” storm engulfs Mr Johnson, he is still as popular among Conservative supporters as Keir is among Labour’s.
The Prime Minister has seen his satisfaction rating among Tory backers drop ten points in a month to 57 per cent, with dissatisfied up six points to 34 per cent, a net score of plus 23.'
We saw this with Trump: support for the party slumps, but the support for the leader among those who will vote for the party stays level. But that's because those fed up with Trump, or Johnson, have skedaddled to supporting another party. A static proportion of Conservative supporters backing Johnson is still a fall if the number of Conservative supporters is declining.
Boris Johnson’s satisfaction rating has hit a record low amid the "Partygate" storm - falling to the same level as Theresa May’s worst score in her final months, exclusive @IpsosMORI poll for @EveningStandard finds... standard.co.uk/news/politics
Labour lead still under 10% (and the previous poll from Ipsos Mori was 3rd-10th December last year, mainly before partygate)
You need to bear in mind there's a lot of Green votes for Labour to squeeze. At least half of that vote will go Labour at an actual GE.
If Corbyn is not reinstated by Starmer? Wishful thinking.
Plus remember Boris still has RefUK to squeeze further
Yes Boris is going to squeeze further a party that is polling so dreadfully they're not even named in the results. 😂
You'll grasp any straw won't you. You're the only person on the site who actually thinks RefUK are a serious party or relevant at all.
Labour will squeeze Green voters on the day. No one on the left will give up a chance of kicking Boris and the Tories out if it looks like they can. If someone like Rishi takes over and get the Tories up to 41 or 42 points Labour will struggle to do it.
You honestly think Sunak is going to get 41% to 42% after forcing skilled workers to take unskilled jobs just a month after redundancy from reports today and after he will responsible for the NI rise in April? Not to mention Sunak backed Brexit just like Boris so he is not going to appeal to remainers Cameron won but no longer voting Tory as he will not appeal to the redwall Boris won in 2019
Yes, competence will go a long way to restoring the Tory score. His ceiling is probably around there and people are still willing to give the Tories a listen, just not Boris.
Last poll with a Sunak led Tories had the Tories on 34% not over 40% and that was before his UC announcement today hitting skilled workers made redundant
You can't take a poll before he's taken office as final. The UC announcement is barely going to register, I mean there's about 1.5m people in the whole country on UC and by and large people would prefer that number to be lower. I'd actually rate that policy as something which will go down well - "make the scroungers go and do some work" etc... was a fairly common expression on the estate where I grew up.
What would you think of a requirement for Cabinet ministers to have spent at least two years on that departments relevant select committee or as a junior minister before being eligible to represent that department in Cabinet?
This would reduce random cabinet reshuffles by design and hopefully also lead to MPs gaining deeper understanding and knowledge of a specific area rather than pretending to know everything about everything.
That's a great idea.
In theory. But when theres a change of government the opposition might have no experience whatsoever.
Plus, while we do criticise it political direction is relevant and it might be appropriate to swap personnel particular if one area has gone wrong and you need a competent person in to manage things even without prior background. And you couldn't promote a talented minister to a other area they might be really good at. And what if someone resigns and the only viable under that scenario are for some reason not suitable.
I think it sounds good but would not help. Knowledge is not the problem, a good minister would be briefed (and brief themselves to not be wholly dependent on Sir Humphrey) and they're not expected to know everything. Using knowledge effectively is something else, and a requirement like that helps a small number get ministerial training but is not flexible enough.
On that poll I think we could see Labour getting something like 43-45% and the Tories something like 33-34% with a bit of swing back. Labour are in majority territory, though maybe just a small one. Something that was unimaginable in the aftermath of the 2019 election. That's how badly Boris has blown it.
I don't think it'll be a majority, but a 2010 reversal is on the cards at the moment. Boris Brown...
Davey & Starmer are politically close enough, and Labour may get enough that he may not need the Nats...
Brown was undefeated at the ballot box, only Ed Miliband and Corbyn saw the Tories get a majority
Ah, yes, 2010, that famous Labour not-defeat when they were reduced to their lowest number of MPs for over two decades.
Brown won more MPs in 2010 than Miliband in 2015 and Corbyn in 2019 and than the Tories ever did from 1997 to 2005
Hold on, that comparison is BS because you can't compare right to centre+left. As we saw in 2010, the centre can end up siding with either wing.
What's most dangerous for the Tories is the Lab+Green score being so high. When it comes down to it leftist voters will be given the opportunity to kick the Tories out and they won't sabotage that by voting Green.
Spot on there Max. I really don't know where this idea that you lump in the LD's with Labour comes from.
Not spot on in a world of 67% dissatisfaction with tories/70% with PM. 2010 redux not a likely thing.
Boris Johnson’s satisfaction rating has hit a record low amid the "Partygate" storm - falling to the same level as Theresa May’s worst score in her final months, exclusive @IpsosMORI poll for @EveningStandard finds... standard.co.uk/news/politics
Labour lead still under 10% (and the previous poll from Ipsos Mori was 3rd-10th December last year, mainly before partygate)
You need to bear in mind there's a lot of Green votes for Labour to squeeze. At least half of that vote will go Labour at an actual GE.
If Corbyn is not reinstated by Starmer? Wishful thinking.
Plus remember Boris still has RefUK to squeeze further
Yes Boris is going to squeeze further a party that is polling so dreadfully they're not even named in the results. 😂
You'll grasp any straw won't you. You're the only person on the site who actually thinks RefUK are a serious party or relevant at all.
Labour will squeeze Green voters on the day. No one on the left will give up a chance of kicking Boris and the Tories out if it looks like they can. If someone like Rishi takes over and get the Tories up to 41 or 42 points Labour will struggle to do it.
You honestly think Sunak is going to get 41% to 42% after forcing skilled workers to take unskilled jobs just a month after redundancy from reports today and after he will responsible for the NI rise in April? Not to mention Sunak backed Brexit just like Boris so he is not going to appeal to remainers Cameron won but no longer voting Tory as he will not appeal to the redwall Boris won in 2019
People may not like the decisions that Sunak is making as Chancellor, but it's perfectly possible to win whilst being unpopular midterm for hard decisions made by a chancellor (Poll tax/1992). What people won't accept is rank hypocrisy and incompetence - (Back to basics/1997)
Major scrapped Thatcher's poll tax.
We face the Sunak NI rise in April and Sunak's UC change today hitting skilled workers.
Boris is not directly responsible for those
Boris's name is all over the NI rise (while Sunak was conspicuous by his absence in every announcement about it)
The UC change is a mis-step based on a complete misunderstand on how the economy works (hardly surprising given that the treasury is clueless on how the real world works) but if the Tories think it's a vote winner let them continue trying to introduce it.
Remember it can take 6 weeks for a company to onboard someone after they've got the job. Applying and interviews can easily be the same time frame again.
So if you apply for a job on day 1 it would take 3 months before you began at DWP / any other civil service department. That would be my test for a reasonable time frame.
The nightmare scenario for the Tories is losing the voters they gained from Brexit without winning back the ones they lost. It feels like that's where they're heading as long as Johnson stays in charge.
Of course the latest Kantar had the lead at four, but that doesn't get mentioned.
The nightmare scenario for the Tories is losing the voters they gained from Brexit without winning back the ones they lost. It feels like that's where they're heading as long as Johnson stays in charge.
The Tories deserve everything they get if they don't replace Boris.
On that poll I think we could see Labour getting something like 43-45% and the Tories something like 33-34% with a bit of swing back. Labour are in majority territory, though maybe just a small one. Something that was unimaginable in the aftermath of the 2019 election. That's how badly Boris has blown it.
I don't think it'll be a majority, but a 2010 reversal is on the cards at the moment. Boris Brown...
Davey & Starmer are politically close enough, and Labour may get enough that he may not need the Nats...
Anything like a 10% lead will give Labour a majority. Their vote will naturally become more efficient as they pick up marginals in a big wave. Remember in 2005 people were wondering whether it would ever be possible for the Tories to win a majority again such was the inefficiency of their vote. Yet in 2019 on the same boundaries they won an 80 seat majority and now have a highly efficient vote.
Boris has opened the door to a Labour majority, even with a dud like Starmer as leader.
What I would love to see is a poll that asked the following questions:
1) If there was a general election tomorrow Who would you vote for?
2) Given that in your constituency only X and Y can plausibly win, who will you vote for?
I suspect the answer to the second Q would significantly reduce the Lib Dem / Green / RefUK votes and more accurately reflect actual voting.
Boris Johnson’s satisfaction rating has hit a record low amid the "Partygate" storm - falling to the same level as Theresa May’s worst score in her final months, exclusive @IpsosMORI poll for @EveningStandard finds... standard.co.uk/news/politics
Labour lead still under 10% (and the previous poll from Ipsos Mori was 3rd-10th December last year, mainly before partygate)
You need to bear in mind there's a lot of Green votes for Labour to squeeze. At least half of that vote will go Labour at an actual GE.
If Corbyn is not reinstated by Starmer? Wishful thinking.
Plus remember Boris still has RefUK to squeeze further
Yes Boris is going to squeeze further a party that is polling so dreadfully they're not even named in the results. 😂
You'll grasp any straw won't you. You're the only person on the site who actually thinks RefUK are a serious party or relevant at all.
Labour will squeeze Green voters on the day. No one on the left will give up a chance of kicking Boris and the Tories out if it looks like they can. If someone like Rishi takes over and get the Tories up to 41 or 42 points Labour will struggle to do it.
You honestly think Sunak is going to get 41% to 42% after forcing skilled workers to take unskilled jobs just a month after redundancy from reports today and after he will responsible for the NI rise in April? Not to mention Sunak backed Brexit just like Boris so he is not going to appeal to remainers Cameron won but no longer voting Tory as he will not appeal to the redwall Boris won in 2019
I think you're onto something with Sunak showing very poor politics for the Tories' new base with his announcement today, but I still think he'd outperform Boris, overall. Look at all the groups who'd be less motivated against, too - wealthier lib dem-leaning and centrist voters, for instance.
Boris Johnson’s satisfaction rating has hit a record low amid the "Partygate" storm - falling to the same level as Theresa May’s worst score in her final months, exclusive @IpsosMORI poll for @EveningStandard finds... standard.co.uk/news/politics
Labour lead still under 10% (and the previous poll from Ipsos Mori was 3rd-10th December last year, mainly before partygate)
You need to bear in mind there's a lot of Green votes for Labour to squeeze. At least half of that vote will go Labour at an actual GE.
If Corbyn is not reinstated by Starmer? Wishful thinking.
Plus remember Boris still has RefUK to squeeze further
Yes Boris is going to squeeze further a party that is polling so dreadfully they're not even named in the results. 😂
You'll grasp any straw won't you. You're the only person on the site who actually thinks RefUK are a serious party or relevant at all.
Labour will squeeze Green voters on the day. No one on the left will give up a chance of kicking Boris and the Tories out if it looks like they can. If someone like Rishi takes over and get the Tories up to 41 or 42 points Labour will struggle to do it.
You honestly think Sunak is going to get 41% to 42% after forcing skilled workers to take unskilled jobs just a month after redundancy from reports today and after he will responsible for the NI rise in April? Not to mention Sunak backed Brexit just like Boris so he is not going to appeal to remainers Cameron won but no longer voting Tory as he will not appeal to the redwall Boris won in 2019
People may not like the decisions that Sunak is making as Chancellor, but it's perfectly possible to win whilst being unpopular midterm for hard decisions made by a chancellor (Poll tax/1992). What people won't accept is rank hypocrisy and incompetence - (Back to basics/1997)
Major scrapped Thatcher's poll tax.
We face the Sunak NI rise in April and Sunak's UC change today hitting skilled workers.
Boris is not directly responsible for those
Boris's name is all over the NI rise (while Sunak was conspicuous by his absence in every announcement about it)
The UC change is a mis-step based on a complete misunderstand on how the economy works (hardly surprising given that the treasury is clueless on how the real world works)
I don't think the UC change is a good policy, yet I also don't think it will be unpopular. You know who really hates the long term unemployed? The working poor. Bringing in policies to reduce long term unemployment and benefits dependency will probably be fairly popular.
Boris Johnson’s satisfaction rating has hit a record low amid the "Partygate" storm - falling to the same level as Theresa May’s worst score in her final months, exclusive @IpsosMORI poll for @EveningStandard finds... standard.co.uk/news/politics
Labour lead still under 10% (and the previous poll from Ipsos Mori was 3rd-10th December last year, mainly before partygate)
You need to bear in mind there's a lot of Green votes for Labour to squeeze. At least half of that vote will go Labour at an actual GE.
If Corbyn is not reinstated by Starmer? Wishful thinking.
Plus remember Boris still has RefUK to squeeze further
Yes Boris is going to squeeze further a party that is polling so dreadfully they're not even named in the results. 😂
You'll grasp any straw won't you. You're the only person on the site who actually thinks RefUK are a serious party or relevant at all.
Labour will squeeze Green voters on the day. No one on the left will give up a chance of kicking Boris and the Tories out if it looks like they can. If someone like Rishi takes over and get the Tories up to 41 or 42 points Labour will struggle to do it.
You honestly think Sunak is going to get 41% to 42% after forcing skilled workers to take unskilled jobs just a month after redundancy from reports today and after he will responsible for the NI rise in April? Not to mention Sunak backed Brexit just like Boris so he is not going to appeal to remainers Cameron won but no longer voting Tory as he will not appeal to the redwall Boris won in 2019
Yes, competence will go a long way to restoring the Tory score. His ceiling is probably around there and people are still willing to give the Tories a listen, just not Boris.
Last poll with a Sunak led Tories had the Tories on 34% not over 40% and that was before his UC announcement today hitting skilled workers made redundant
Wait til the jobs tax on 01 April, and the gas price cap change.
The nightmare scenario for the Tories is losing the voters they gained from Brexit without winning back the ones they lost. It feels like that's where they're heading as long as Johnson stays in charge.
Of course the latest Kantar had the lead at four, but that doesn't get mentioned.
Don't be dense.
PB is famous for focussing on Ipsos MORI because the leader ratings are the gold standard and go back to the 1970s.
The nightmare scenario for the Tories is losing the voters they gained from Brexit without winning back the ones they lost. It feels like that's where they're heading as long as Johnson stays in charge.
More likely the opposite.
Boris is still the best Tory to win the voters they gained from Brexit and no alternative leader will regain the voters they have lost since Brexit without leaking lots of voters to RefUK too if they go to EEA or a CU and Starmer would do the latter anyway
Boris Johnson’s satisfaction rating has hit a record low amid the "Partygate" storm - falling to the same level as Theresa May’s worst score in her final months, exclusive @IpsosMORI poll for @EveningStandard finds... standard.co.uk/news/politics
Labour lead still under 10% (and the previous poll from Ipsos Mori was 3rd-10th December last year, mainly before partygate)
You need to bear in mind there's a lot of Green votes for Labour to squeeze. At least half of that vote will go Labour at an actual GE.
If Corbyn is not reinstated by Starmer? Wishful thinking.
Plus remember Boris still has RefUK to squeeze further
Yes Boris is going to squeeze further a party that is polling so dreadfully they're not even named in the results. 😂
You'll grasp any straw won't you. You're the only person on the site who actually thinks RefUK are a serious party or relevant at all.
Labour will squeeze Green voters on the day. No one on the left will give up a chance of kicking Boris and the Tories out if it looks like they can. If someone like Rishi takes over and get the Tories up to 41 or 42 points Labour will struggle to do it.
You honestly think Sunak is going to get 41% to 42% after forcing skilled workers to take unskilled jobs just a month after redundancy from reports today and after he will responsible for the NI rise in April? Not to mention Sunak backed Brexit just like Boris so he is not going to appeal to remainers Cameron won but no longer voting Tory as he will not appeal to the redwall Boris won in 2019
People may not like the decisions that Sunak is making as Chancellor, but it's perfectly possible to win whilst being unpopular midterm for hard decisions made by a chancellor (Poll tax/1992). What people won't accept is rank hypocrisy and incompetence - (Back to basics/1997)
Major scrapped Thatcher's poll tax.
We face the Sunak NI rise in April and Sunak's UC change today hitting skilled workers.
Boris is not directly responsible for those
Boris's name is all over the NI rise (while Sunak was conspicuous by his absence in every announcement about it)
The UC change is a mis-step based on a complete misunderstand on how the economy works (hardly surprising given that the treasury is clueless on how the real world works) but if the Tories think it's a vote winner let them continue trying to introduce it.
Remember it can take 6 weeks for a company to onboard someone after they've got the job. Applying and interviews can easily be the same time frame again.
So if you apply for a job on day 1 it would take 3 months before you began at DWP / any other civil service department. That would be my test for a reasonable time frame.
It was Sunak who announced it as Chancellor and Boris will ensure Sunak is responsible for the NI rise and UC change
Boris Johnson’s satisfaction rating has hit a record low amid the "Partygate" storm - falling to the same level as Theresa May’s worst score in her final months, exclusive @IpsosMORI poll for @EveningStandard finds... standard.co.uk/news/politics
Labour lead still under 10% (and the previous poll from Ipsos Mori was 3rd-10th December last year, mainly before partygate)
You need to bear in mind there's a lot of Green votes for Labour to squeeze. At least half of that vote will go Labour at an actual GE.
If Corbyn is not reinstated by Starmer? Wishful thinking.
Plus remember Boris still has RefUK to squeeze further
Yes Boris is going to squeeze further a party that is polling so dreadfully they're not even named in the results. 😂
You'll grasp any straw won't you. You're the only person on the site who actually thinks RefUK are a serious party or relevant at all.
Labour will squeeze Green voters on the day. No one on the left will give up a chance of kicking Boris and the Tories out if it looks like they can. If someone like Rishi takes over and get the Tories up to 41 or 42 points Labour will struggle to do it.
You honestly think Sunak is going to get 41% to 42% after forcing skilled workers to take unskilled jobs just a month after redundancy from reports today and after he will responsible for the NI rise in April? Not to mention Sunak backed Brexit just like Boris so he is not going to appeal to remainers Cameron won but no longer voting Tory as he will not appeal to the redwall Boris won in 2019
People may not like the decisions that Sunak is making as Chancellor, but it's perfectly possible to win whilst being unpopular midterm for hard decisions made by a chancellor (Poll tax/1992). What people won't accept is rank hypocrisy and incompetence - (Back to basics/1997)
Major scrapped Thatcher's poll tax.
We face the Sunak NI rise in April and Sunak's UC change today hitting skilled workers.
Boris is not directly responsible for those
Boris's name is all over the NI rise (while Sunak was conspicuous by his absence in every announcement about it)
The UC change is a mis-step based on a complete misunderstand on how the economy works (hardly surprising given that the treasury is clueless on how the real world works)
I don't think the UC change is a good policy, yet I also don't think it will be unpopular. You know who really hates the long term unemployed? The working poor. Bringing in policies to reduce long term unemployment and benefits dependency will probably be fairly popular.
Well yes. Although the vast, vast majority of people on UC are not the long-term unemployed. Or even unemployed at all.
Boris Johnson’s satisfaction rating has hit a record low amid the "Partygate" storm - falling to the same level as Theresa May’s worst score in her final months, exclusive @IpsosMORI poll for @EveningStandard finds... standard.co.uk/news/politics
Labour lead still under 10% (and the previous poll from Ipsos Mori was 3rd-10th December last year, mainly before partygate)
You need to bear in mind there's a lot of Green votes for Labour to squeeze. At least half of that vote will go Labour at an actual GE.
If Corbyn is not reinstated by Starmer? Wishful thinking.
Plus remember Boris still has RefUK to squeeze further
Yes Boris is going to squeeze further a party that is polling so dreadfully they're not even named in the results. 😂
You'll grasp any straw won't you. You're the only person on the site who actually thinks RefUK are a serious party or relevant at all.
Labour will squeeze Green voters on the day. No one on the left will give up a chance of kicking Boris and the Tories out if it looks like they can. If someone like Rishi takes over and get the Tories up to 41 or 42 points Labour will struggle to do it.
You honestly think Sunak is going to get 41% to 42% after forcing skilled workers to take unskilled jobs just a month after redundancy from reports today and after he will responsible for the NI rise in April? Not to mention Sunak backed Brexit just like Boris so he is not going to appeal to remainers Cameron won but no longer voting Tory as he will not appeal to the redwall Boris won in 2019
Yes, competence will go a long way to restoring the Tory score. His ceiling is probably around there and people are still willing to give the Tories a listen, just not Boris.
Last poll with a Sunak led Tories had the Tories on 34% not over 40% and that was before his UC announcement today hitting skilled workers made redundant
You can't take a poll before he's taken office as final. The UC announcement is barely going to register, I mean there's about 1.5m people in the whole country on UC and by and large people would prefer that number to be lower. I'd actually rate that policy as something which will go down well - "make the scroungers go and do some work" etc... was a fairly common expression on the estate where I grew up.
It won't go down well with skilled workers facing redundancy who are often swing voters
Boris Johnson’s satisfaction rating has hit a record low amid the "Partygate" storm - falling to the same level as Theresa May’s worst score in her final months, exclusive @IpsosMORI poll for @EveningStandard finds... standard.co.uk/news/politics
Labour lead still under 10% (and the previous poll from Ipsos Mori was 3rd-10th December last year, mainly before partygate)
You need to bear in mind there's a lot of Green votes for Labour to squeeze. At least half of that vote will go Labour at an actual GE.
If Corbyn is not reinstated by Starmer? Wishful thinking.
Plus remember Boris still has RefUK to squeeze further
Yes Boris is going to squeeze further a party that is polling so dreadfully they're not even named in the results. 😂
You'll grasp any straw won't you. You're the only person on the site who actually thinks RefUK are a serious party or relevant at all.
Labour will squeeze Green voters on the day. No one on the left will give up a chance of kicking Boris and the Tories out if it looks like they can. If someone like Rishi takes over and get the Tories up to 41 or 42 points Labour will struggle to do it.
You honestly think Sunak is going to get 41% to 42% after forcing skilled workers to take unskilled jobs just a month after redundancy from reports today and after he will responsible for the NI rise in April? Not to mention Sunak backed Brexit just like Boris so he is not going to appeal to remainers Cameron won but no longer voting Tory as he will not appeal to the redwall Boris won in 2019
People may not like the decisions that Sunak is making as Chancellor, but it's perfectly possible to win whilst being unpopular midterm for hard decisions made by a chancellor (Poll tax/1992). What people won't accept is rank hypocrisy and incompetence - (Back to basics/1997)
Major scrapped Thatcher's poll tax.
We face the Sunak NI rise in April and Sunak's UC change today hitting skilled workers.
Boris is not directly responsible for those
Boris's name is all over the NI rise (while Sunak was conspicuous by his absence in every announcement about it)
The UC change is a mis-step based on a complete misunderstand on how the economy works (hardly surprising given that the treasury is clueless on how the real world works)
I don't think the UC change is a good policy, yet I also don't think it will be unpopular. You know who really hates the long term unemployed? The working poor. Bringing in policies to reduce long term unemployment and benefits dependency will probably be fairly popular.
I spoke to my friend who runs a JCP and deals with UC on a daily basis, she thinks it won't work, for several reasons.
1) Not enough work coaches to monitor it
2) People won't hire professionals for retail jobs etc because they don't have the experience and skillset, and employers will think, for example, here's an architect on 40k per year, what's the point in hiring/training them for a £12k job when they'll leave for a higher paying job in a few months.
Boris Johnson’s satisfaction rating has hit a record low amid the "Partygate" storm - falling to the same level as Theresa May’s worst score in her final months, exclusive @IpsosMORI poll for @EveningStandard finds... standard.co.uk/news/politics
Labour lead still under 10% (and the previous poll from Ipsos Mori was 3rd-10th December last year, mainly before partygate)
You need to bear in mind there's a lot of Green votes for Labour to squeeze. At least half of that vote will go Labour at an actual GE.
If Corbyn is not reinstated by Starmer? Wishful thinking.
Plus remember Boris still has RefUK to squeeze further
Yes Boris is going to squeeze further a party that is polling so dreadfully they're not even named in the results. 😂
You'll grasp any straw won't you. You're the only person on the site who actually thinks RefUK are a serious party or relevant at all.
Labour will squeeze Green voters on the day. No one on the left will give up a chance of kicking Boris and the Tories out if it looks like they can. If someone like Rishi takes over and get the Tories up to 41 or 42 points Labour will struggle to do it.
You honestly think Sunak is going to get 41% to 42% after forcing skilled workers to take unskilled jobs just a month after redundancy from reports today and after he will responsible for the NI rise in April? Not to mention Sunak backed Brexit just like Boris so he is not going to appeal to remainers Cameron won but no longer voting Tory as he will not appeal to the redwall Boris won in 2019
I think you're onto something with Sunak showing very poor politics with his announcement today. I still think he'd outperform Boris, though. Look at all the groups who'd be less motivated against - wealthier lib dem-leaning voters, for instance.
With tory voters? Not now. not by a long chalk.
If he's resigned a year ago saying 'I am not paying that, for that sh8t' he would now be in absolute poll position.
But he kept writing the furlough cheques, some of which were to fraudsters, and others of which were to big companies that made money anyhow.
Boris Johnson’s satisfaction rating has hit a record low amid the "Partygate" storm - falling to the same level as Theresa May’s worst score in her final months, exclusive @IpsosMORI poll for @EveningStandard finds... standard.co.uk/news/politics
Labour lead still under 10% (and the previous poll from Ipsos Mori was 3rd-10th December last year, mainly before partygate)
You need to bear in mind there's a lot of Green votes for Labour to squeeze. At least half of that vote will go Labour at an actual GE.
If Corbyn is not reinstated by Starmer? Wishful thinking.
Plus remember Boris still has RefUK to squeeze further
Yes Boris is going to squeeze further a party that is polling so dreadfully they're not even named in the results. 😂
You'll grasp any straw won't you. You're the only person on the site who actually thinks RefUK are a serious party or relevant at all.
Labour will squeeze Green voters on the day. No one on the left will give up a chance of kicking Boris and the Tories out if it looks like they can. If someone like Rishi takes over and get the Tories up to 41 or 42 points Labour will struggle to do it.
You honestly think Sunak is going to get 41% to 42% after forcing skilled workers to take unskilled jobs just a month after redundancy from reports today and after he will responsible for the NI rise in April? Not to mention Sunak backed Brexit just like Boris so he is not going to appeal to remainers Cameron won but no longer voting Tory as he will not appeal to the redwall Boris won in 2019
People may not like the decisions that Sunak is making as Chancellor, but it's perfectly possible to win whilst being unpopular midterm for hard decisions made by a chancellor (Poll tax/1992). What people won't accept is rank hypocrisy and incompetence - (Back to basics/1997)
Major scrapped Thatcher's poll tax.
We face the Sunak NI rise in April and Sunak's UC change today hitting skilled workers.
Boris is not directly responsible for those
Boris's name is all over the NI rise (while Sunak was conspicuous by his absence in every announcement about it)
The UC change is a mis-step based on a complete misunderstand on how the economy works (hardly surprising given that the treasury is clueless on how the real world works)
I don't think the UC change is a good policy, yet I also don't think it will be unpopular. You know who really hates the long term unemployed? The working poor. Bringing in policies to reduce long term unemployment and benefits dependency will probably be fairly popular.
Well yes. Although the vast, vast majority of people on UC are not the long-term unemployed. Or even unemployed at all.
These specific changes only apply to those claiming UC for unemployment, though rather than all of the idiotic low wage top ups and subsidies we've got.
Hold on, that comparison is BS because you can't compare right to centre+left. As we saw in 2010, the centre can end up siding with either wing.
What's most dangerous for the Tories is the Lab+Green score being so high. When it comes down to it leftist voters will be given the opportunity to kick the Tories out and they won't sabotage that by voting Green.
In the normal course of things. But with Boris still PM, the centre is way less likely to tend Tory.
Boris Johnson’s satisfaction rating has hit a record low amid the "Partygate" storm - falling to the same level as Theresa May’s worst score in her final months, exclusive @IpsosMORI poll for @EveningStandard finds... standard.co.uk/news/politics
Labour lead still under 10% (and the previous poll from Ipsos Mori was 3rd-10th December last year, mainly before partygate)
You need to bear in mind there's a lot of Green votes for Labour to squeeze. At least half of that vote will go Labour at an actual GE.
If Corbyn is not reinstated by Starmer? Wishful thinking.
Plus remember Boris still has RefUK to squeeze further
Yes Boris is going to squeeze further a party that is polling so dreadfully they're not even named in the results. 😂
You'll grasp any straw won't you. You're the only person on the site who actually thinks RefUK are a serious party or relevant at all.
Labour will squeeze Green voters on the day. No one on the left will give up a chance of kicking Boris and the Tories out if it looks like they can. If someone like Rishi takes over and get the Tories up to 41 or 42 points Labour will struggle to do it.
You honestly think Sunak is going to get 41% to 42% after forcing skilled workers to take unskilled jobs just a month after redundancy from reports today and after he will responsible for the NI rise in April? Not to mention Sunak backed Brexit just like Boris so he is not going to appeal to remainers Cameron won but no longer voting Tory as he will not appeal to the redwall Boris won in 2019
People may not like the decisions that Sunak is making as Chancellor, but it's perfectly possible to win whilst being unpopular midterm for hard decisions made by a chancellor (Poll tax/1992). What people won't accept is rank hypocrisy and incompetence - (Back to basics/1997)
Major scrapped Thatcher's poll tax.
We face the Sunak NI rise in April and Sunak's UC change today hitting skilled workers.
Boris is not directly responsible for those
Boris's name is all over the NI rise (while Sunak was conspicuous by his absence in every announcement about it)
The UC change is a mis-step based on a complete misunderstand on how the economy works (hardly surprising given that the treasury is clueless on how the real world works)
I don't think the UC change is a good policy, yet I also don't think it will be unpopular. You know who really hates the long term unemployed? The working poor. Bringing in policies to reduce long term unemployment and benefits dependency will probably be fairly popular.
It's an awkward one because I can see why the proposal is being made but it equally means skilled people are going to be forced to take inappropriate work because they have little choice.
What I think needs to be the case is a bit of nuance.
First time claim in 3+ years you get 3 months to find something in your field, second claim in 3 years - 1 month, subsequent claims 0 days.
What we have instead is a policy that looks strict but would actually create problems.
Boris Johnson’s satisfaction rating has hit a record low amid the "Partygate" storm - falling to the same level as Theresa May’s worst score in her final months, exclusive @IpsosMORI poll for @EveningStandard finds... standard.co.uk/news/politics
Labour lead still under 10% (and the previous poll from Ipsos Mori was 3rd-10th December last year, mainly before partygate)
You need to bear in mind there's a lot of Green votes for Labour to squeeze. At least half of that vote will go Labour at an actual GE.
If Corbyn is not reinstated by Starmer? Wishful thinking.
Plus remember Boris still has RefUK to squeeze further
Yes Boris is going to squeeze further a party that is polling so dreadfully they're not even named in the results. 😂
You'll grasp any straw won't you. You're the only person on the site who actually thinks RefUK are a serious party or relevant at all.
Labour will squeeze Green voters on the day. No one on the left will give up a chance of kicking Boris and the Tories out if it looks like they can. If someone like Rishi takes over and get the Tories up to 41 or 42 points Labour will struggle to do it.
You honestly think Sunak is going to get 41% to 42% after forcing skilled workers to take unskilled jobs just a month after redundancy from reports today and after he will responsible for the NI rise in April? Not to mention Sunak backed Brexit just like Boris so he is not going to appeal to remainers Cameron won but no longer voting Tory as he will not appeal to the redwall Boris won in 2019
People may not like the decisions that Sunak is making as Chancellor, but it's perfectly possible to win whilst being unpopular midterm for hard decisions made by a chancellor (Poll tax/1992). What people won't accept is rank hypocrisy and incompetence - (Back to basics/1997)
Major scrapped Thatcher's poll tax.
We face the Sunak NI rise in April and Sunak's UC change today hitting skilled workers.
Boris is not directly responsible for those
Boris's name is all over the NI rise (while Sunak was conspicuous by his absence in every announcement about it)
The UC change is a mis-step based on a complete misunderstand on how the economy works (hardly surprising given that the treasury is clueless on how the real world works)
I don't think the UC change is a good policy, yet I also don't think it will be unpopular. You know who really hates the long term unemployed? The working poor. Bringing in policies to reduce long term unemployment and benefits dependency will probably be fairly popular.
Is 1 month long term unemployed? Yes many of the working poor think long term unemployed are too often freeloading, but not sure they will see this policy as addressing that.
Also completely clashes with the government claiming we have full employment and soaring pay. If so, why the need for the changes?
Boris Johnson’s satisfaction rating has hit a record low amid the "Partygate" storm - falling to the same level as Theresa May’s worst score in her final months, exclusive @IpsosMORI poll for @EveningStandard finds... standard.co.uk/news/politics
Labour lead still under 10% (and the previous poll from Ipsos Mori was 3rd-10th December last year, mainly before partygate)
You need to bear in mind there's a lot of Green votes for Labour to squeeze. At least half of that vote will go Labour at an actual GE.
If Corbyn is not reinstated by Starmer? Wishful thinking.
Plus remember Boris still has RefUK to squeeze further
Yes Boris is going to squeeze further a party that is polling so dreadfully they're not even named in the results. 😂
You'll grasp any straw won't you. You're the only person on the site who actually thinks RefUK are a serious party or relevant at all.
Labour will squeeze Green voters on the day. No one on the left will give up a chance of kicking Boris and the Tories out if it looks like they can. If someone like Rishi takes over and get the Tories up to 41 or 42 points Labour will struggle to do it.
You honestly think Sunak is going to get 41% to 42% after forcing skilled workers to take unskilled jobs just a month after redundancy from reports today and after he will responsible for the NI rise in April? Not to mention Sunak backed Brexit just like Boris so he is not going to appeal to remainers Cameron won but no longer voting Tory as he will not appeal to the redwall Boris won in 2019
People may not like the decisions that Sunak is making as Chancellor, but it's perfectly possible to win whilst being unpopular midterm for hard decisions made by a chancellor (Poll tax/1992). What people won't accept is rank hypocrisy and incompetence - (Back to basics/1997)
Major scrapped Thatcher's poll tax.
We face the Sunak NI rise in April and Sunak's UC change today hitting skilled workers.
Boris is not directly responsible for those
Boris's name is all over the NI rise (while Sunak was conspicuous by his absence in every announcement about it)
The UC change is a mis-step based on a complete misunderstand on how the economy works (hardly surprising given that the treasury is clueless on how the real world works)
I don't think the UC change is a good policy, yet I also don't think it will be unpopular. You know who really hates the long term unemployed? The working poor. Bringing in policies to reduce long term unemployment and benefits dependency will probably be fairly popular.
I spoke to my friend who runs a JCP and deals with UC on a daily basis, she thinks it won't work, for several reasons.
1) Not enough work coaches to monitor it
2) People won't hire professionals for retail jobs etc because they don't have the experience and skillset, and employers will think, for example, here's an architect on 40k per year, what's the point in hiring/training them for a £12k job when they'll leave for a higher paying job in a few months.
A lot of those professionals don't bother signing up for UC in the first place.
Boris Johnson’s satisfaction rating has hit a record low amid the "Partygate" storm - falling to the same level as Theresa May’s worst score in her final months, exclusive @IpsosMORI poll for @EveningStandard finds... standard.co.uk/news/politics
Labour lead still under 10% (and the previous poll from Ipsos Mori was 3rd-10th December last year, mainly before partygate)
You need to bear in mind there's a lot of Green votes for Labour to squeeze. At least half of that vote will go Labour at an actual GE.
If Corbyn is not reinstated by Starmer? Wishful thinking.
Plus remember Boris still has RefUK to squeeze further
Yes Boris is going to squeeze further a party that is polling so dreadfully they're not even named in the results. 😂
You'll grasp any straw won't you. You're the only person on the site who actually thinks RefUK are a serious party or relevant at all.
Labour will squeeze Green voters on the day. No one on the left will give up a chance of kicking Boris and the Tories out if it looks like they can. If someone like Rishi takes over and get the Tories up to 41 or 42 points Labour will struggle to do it.
You honestly think Sunak is going to get 41% to 42% after forcing skilled workers to take unskilled jobs just a month after redundancy from reports today and after he will responsible for the NI rise in April? Not to mention Sunak backed Brexit just like Boris so he is not going to appeal to remainers Cameron won but no longer voting Tory as he will not appeal to the redwall Boris won in 2019
Yes, competence will go a long way to restoring the Tory score. His ceiling is probably around there and people are still willing to give the Tories a listen, just not Boris.
Last poll with a Sunak led Tories had the Tories on 34% not over 40% and that was before his UC announcement today hitting skilled workers made redundant
Wait til the jobs tax on 01 April, and the gas price cap change.
FFS.
Wait to the pay rises being offered between May and December are low because of the additional employment costs the Government have forced us (as employers) to pay.
Boris Johnson’s satisfaction rating has hit a record low amid the "Partygate" storm - falling to the same level as Theresa May’s worst score in her final months, exclusive @IpsosMORI poll for @EveningStandard finds... standard.co.uk/news/politics
Labour lead still under 10% (and the previous poll from Ipsos Mori was 3rd-10th December last year, mainly before partygate)
You need to bear in mind there's a lot of Green votes for Labour to squeeze. At least half of that vote will go Labour at an actual GE.
If Corbyn is not reinstated by Starmer? Wishful thinking.
Plus remember Boris still has RefUK to squeeze further
Yes Boris is going to squeeze further a party that is polling so dreadfully they're not even named in the results. 😂
You'll grasp any straw won't you. You're the only person on the site who actually thinks RefUK are a serious party or relevant at all.
Labour will squeeze Green voters on the day. No one on the left will give up a chance of kicking Boris and the Tories out if it looks like they can. If someone like Rishi takes over and get the Tories up to 41 or 42 points Labour will struggle to do it.
You honestly think Sunak is going to get 41% to 42% after forcing skilled workers to take unskilled jobs just a month after redundancy from reports today and after he will responsible for the NI rise in April? Not to mention Sunak backed Brexit just like Boris so he is not going to appeal to remainers Cameron won but no longer voting Tory as he will not appeal to the redwall Boris won in 2019
People may not like the decisions that Sunak is making as Chancellor, but it's perfectly possible to win whilst being unpopular midterm for hard decisions made by a chancellor (Poll tax/1992). What people won't accept is rank hypocrisy and incompetence - (Back to basics/1997)
Major scrapped Thatcher's poll tax.
We face the Sunak NI rise in April and Sunak's UC change today hitting skilled workers.
Boris is not directly responsible for those
Boris's name is all over the NI rise (while Sunak was conspicuous by his absence in every announcement about it)
The UC change is a mis-step based on a complete misunderstand on how the economy works (hardly surprising given that the treasury is clueless on how the real world works)
I don't think the UC change is a good policy, yet I also don't think it will be unpopular. You know who really hates the long term unemployed? The working poor. Bringing in policies to reduce long term unemployment and benefits dependency will probably be fairly popular.
I spoke to my friend who runs a JCP and deals with UC on a daily basis, she thinks it won't work, for several reasons.
1) Not enough work coaches to monitor it
2) People won't hire professionals for retail jobs etc because they don't have the experience and skillset, and employers will think, for example, here's an architect on 40k per year, what's the point in hiring/training them for a £12k job when they'll leave for a higher paying job in a few months.
A lot of those professionals don't bother signing up for UC in the first place.
One of the problems with all unemployment benefits is it is always about a decade behind the times. Example is the 35 hours per week jobsearch requirement. If you have access to the Internet, you can source all available local vacancies and apply by uploading your CV, or copy and pasting an application form in well under a day if you don't live in a big city. They are however still advising folk to phone companies on spec, or walk in and hand in a CV. Even though virtually no one recruits like this these days. And businesses just don't want folk wandering in off the streets to not buy anything.
Boris Johnson’s satisfaction rating has hit a record low amid the "Partygate" storm - falling to the same level as Theresa May’s worst score in her final months, exclusive @IpsosMORI poll for @EveningStandard finds... standard.co.uk/news/politics
Labour lead still under 10% (and the previous poll from Ipsos Mori was 3rd-10th December last year, mainly before partygate)
You need to bear in mind there's a lot of Green votes for Labour to squeeze. At least half of that vote will go Labour at an actual GE.
If Corbyn is not reinstated by Starmer? Wishful thinking.
Plus remember Boris still has RefUK to squeeze further
Yes Boris is going to squeeze further a party that is polling so dreadfully they're not even named in the results. 😂
You'll grasp any straw won't you. You're the only person on the site who actually thinks RefUK are a serious party or relevant at all.
Labour will squeeze Green voters on the day. No one on the left will give up a chance of kicking Boris and the Tories out if it looks like they can. If someone like Rishi takes over and get the Tories up to 41 or 42 points Labour will struggle to do it.
You honestly think Sunak is going to get 41% to 42% after forcing skilled workers to take unskilled jobs just a month after redundancy from reports today and after he will responsible for the NI rise in April? Not to mention Sunak backed Brexit just like Boris so he is not going to appeal to remainers Cameron won but no longer voting Tory as he will not appeal to the redwall Boris won in 2019
People may not like the decisions that Sunak is making as Chancellor, but it's perfectly possible to win whilst being unpopular midterm for hard decisions made by a chancellor (Poll tax/1992). What people won't accept is rank hypocrisy and incompetence - (Back to basics/1997)
Major scrapped Thatcher's poll tax.
We face the Sunak NI rise in April and Sunak's UC change today hitting skilled workers.
Boris is not directly responsible for those
Boris's name is all over the NI rise (while Sunak was conspicuous by his absence in every announcement about it)
The UC change is a mis-step based on a complete misunderstand on how the economy works (hardly surprising given that the treasury is clueless on how the real world works)
I don't think the UC change is a good policy, yet I also don't think it will be unpopular. You know who really hates the long term unemployed? The working poor. Bringing in policies to reduce long term unemployment and benefits dependency will probably be fairly popular.
Is 1 month long term unemployed? Yes many of the working poor think long term unemployed are too often freeloading, but not sure they will see this policy as addressing that.
Also completely clashes with the government claiming we have full employment and soaring pay. If so, why the need for the changes?
Treasury Logic>If we have full employment, why is anyone unemployed - they can find a job tomorrow... </Treasury Logic
Boris Johnson’s satisfaction rating has hit a record low amid the "Partygate" storm - falling to the same level as Theresa May’s worst score in her final months, exclusive @IpsosMORI poll for @EveningStandard finds... standard.co.uk/news/politics
Labour lead still under 10% (and the previous poll from Ipsos Mori was 3rd-10th December last year, mainly before partygate)
You need to bear in mind there's a lot of Green votes for Labour to squeeze. At least half of that vote will go Labour at an actual GE.
If Corbyn is not reinstated by Starmer? Wishful thinking.
Plus remember Boris still has RefUK to squeeze further
Yes Boris is going to squeeze further a party that is polling so dreadfully they're not even named in the results. 😂
You'll grasp any straw won't you. You're the only person on the site who actually thinks RefUK are a serious party or relevant at all.
Labour will squeeze Green voters on the day. No one on the left will give up a chance of kicking Boris and the Tories out if it looks like they can. If someone like Rishi takes over and get the Tories up to 41 or 42 points Labour will struggle to do it.
You honestly think Sunak is going to get 41% to 42% after forcing skilled workers to take unskilled jobs just a month after redundancy from reports today and after he will responsible for the NI rise in April? Not to mention Sunak backed Brexit just like Boris so he is not going to appeal to remainers Cameron won but no longer voting Tory as he will not appeal to the redwall Boris won in 2019
People may not like the decisions that Sunak is making as Chancellor, but it's perfectly possible to win whilst being unpopular midterm for hard decisions made by a chancellor (Poll tax/1992). What people won't accept is rank hypocrisy and incompetence - (Back to basics/1997)
Major scrapped Thatcher's poll tax.
We face the Sunak NI rise in April and Sunak's UC change today hitting skilled workers.
Boris is not directly responsible for those
Boris's name is all over the NI rise (while Sunak was conspicuous by his absence in every announcement about it)
The UC change is a mis-step based on a complete misunderstand on how the economy works (hardly surprising given that the treasury is clueless on how the real world works)
I don't think the UC change is a good policy, yet I also don't think it will be unpopular. You know who really hates the long term unemployed? The working poor. Bringing in policies to reduce long term unemployment and benefits dependency will probably be fairly popular.
Is 1 month long term unemployed? Yes many of the working poor think long term unemployed are too often freeloading, but not sure they will see this policy as addressing that.
Also completely clashes with the government claiming we have full employment and soaring pay. If so, why the need for the changes?
The government’s argument will be the fact we have a million vacancies, soaring pay and full employment, is exactly why they are making the changes.
They don’t want today’s equivalent of buggy whip makers, sitting on the dole for months waiting for new buggy whipping jobs that will never come along.
With the exception of the disabled, there’s no reason for anyone to be unemployed at the moment, even if it’s only working a few days a week for minimum wage.
I look at that poll and see 45% voting Labour on polling day (as Greens / Lib Dems switch to a Labour candidate who can win) while the Tories will need to work to get their voters into a polling station.
Hmm, also that Slab is probably on 20% or so, so that's a bit more for Labour south of Tweed and Solway, esp. as there is no SNP there to vote for to keep the Tories out.
And again, getting back to the point - the UC changes aren't going to be a negative for Rishi. It's going to be a fairly popular policy aimed at reducing long term unemployment. I don't think it hurts Rishi at all to be "tough on scroungers" and in a lot of households there will be confusion as to why this isn't already policy. The policy itself might not be very good (and I don't think it is, 3 months to find a new job seems fair) but that won't necessarily translate to votes.
Boris Johnson’s satisfaction rating has hit a record low amid the "Partygate" storm - falling to the same level as Theresa May’s worst score in her final months, exclusive @IpsosMORI poll for @EveningStandard finds... standard.co.uk/news/politics
Labour lead still under 10% (and the previous poll from Ipsos Mori was 3rd-10th December last year, mainly before partygate)
You need to bear in mind there's a lot of Green votes for Labour to squeeze. At least half of that vote will go Labour at an actual GE.
If Corbyn is not reinstated by Starmer? Wishful thinking.
Plus remember Boris still has RefUK to squeeze further
Yes Boris is going to squeeze further a party that is polling so dreadfully they're not even named in the results. 😂
You'll grasp any straw won't you. You're the only person on the site who actually thinks RefUK are a serious party or relevant at all.
Labour will squeeze Green voters on the day. No one on the left will give up a chance of kicking Boris and the Tories out if it looks like they can. If someone like Rishi takes over and get the Tories up to 41 or 42 points Labour will struggle to do it.
You honestly think Sunak is going to get 41% to 42% after forcing skilled workers to take unskilled jobs just a month after redundancy from reports today and after he will responsible for the NI rise in April? Not to mention Sunak backed Brexit just like Boris so he is not going to appeal to remainers Cameron won but no longer voting Tory as he will not appeal to the redwall Boris won in 2019
People may not like the decisions that Sunak is making as Chancellor, but it's perfectly possible to win whilst being unpopular midterm for hard decisions made by a chancellor (Poll tax/1992). What people won't accept is rank hypocrisy and incompetence - (Back to basics/1997)
Major scrapped Thatcher's poll tax.
We face the Sunak NI rise in April and Sunak's UC change today hitting skilled workers.
Boris is not directly responsible for those
Boris's name is all over the NI rise (while Sunak was conspicuous by his absence in every announcement about it)
The UC change is a mis-step based on a complete misunderstand on how the economy works (hardly surprising given that the treasury is clueless on how the real world works)
I don't think the UC change is a good policy, yet I also don't think it will be unpopular. You know who really hates the long term unemployed? The working poor. Bringing in policies to reduce long term unemployment and benefits dependency will probably be fairly popular.
I spoke to my friend who runs a JCP and deals with UC on a daily basis, she thinks it won't work, for several reasons.
1) Not enough work coaches to monitor it
2) People won't hire professionals for retail jobs etc because they don't have the experience and skillset, and employers will think, for example, here's an architect on 40k per year, what's the point in hiring/training them for a £12k job when they'll leave for a higher paying job in a few months.
A lot of those professionals don't bother signing up for UC in the first place.
Only if they have enough savings
Vote Conservative - have your toilets scrubbed by Humanities graduates.
Boris Johnson’s satisfaction rating has hit a record low amid the "Partygate" storm - falling to the same level as Theresa May’s worst score in her final months, exclusive @IpsosMORI poll for @EveningStandard finds... standard.co.uk/news/politics
Labour lead still under 10% (and the previous poll from Ipsos Mori was 3rd-10th December last year, mainly before partygate)
You need to bear in mind there's a lot of Green votes for Labour to squeeze. At least half of that vote will go Labour at an actual GE.
If Corbyn is not reinstated by Starmer? Wishful thinking.
Plus remember Boris still has RefUK to squeeze further
Yes Boris is going to squeeze further a party that is polling so dreadfully they're not even named in the results. 😂
You'll grasp any straw won't you. You're the only person on the site who actually thinks RefUK are a serious party or relevant at all.
Labour will squeeze Green voters on the day. No one on the left will give up a chance of kicking Boris and the Tories out if it looks like they can. If someone like Rishi takes over and get the Tories up to 41 or 42 points Labour will struggle to do it.
You honestly think Sunak is going to get 41% to 42% after forcing skilled workers to take unskilled jobs just a month after redundancy from reports today and after he will responsible for the NI rise in April? Not to mention Sunak backed Brexit just like Boris so he is not going to appeal to remainers Cameron won but no longer voting Tory as he will not appeal to the redwall Boris won in 2019
People may not like the decisions that Sunak is making as Chancellor, but it's perfectly possible to win whilst being unpopular midterm for hard decisions made by a chancellor (Poll tax/1992). What people won't accept is rank hypocrisy and incompetence - (Back to basics/1997)
Major scrapped Thatcher's poll tax.
We face the Sunak NI rise in April and Sunak's UC change today hitting skilled workers.
Boris is not directly responsible for those
Boris's name is all over the NI rise (while Sunak was conspicuous by his absence in every announcement about it)
The UC change is a mis-step based on a complete misunderstand on how the economy works (hardly surprising given that the treasury is clueless on how the real world works)
I don't think the UC change is a good policy, yet I also don't think it will be unpopular. You know who really hates the long term unemployed? The working poor. Bringing in policies to reduce long term unemployment and benefits dependency will probably be fairly popular.
Is 1 month long term unemployed? Yes many of the working poor think long term unemployed are too often freeloading, but not sure they will see this policy as addressing that.
Also completely clashes with the government claiming we have full employment and soaring pay. If so, why the need for the changes?
The government’s argument will be the fact we have a million vacancies, soaring pay and full employment, is exactly why they are making the changes.
They don’t want today’s equivalent of buggy whip makers, sitting on the dole for months waiting for new buggy whipping jobs that will never come along.
With the exception of the disabled, there’s no reason for anyone to be unemployed at the moment, even if it’s only working a few days a week for minimum wage.
It is far better for everyone though if someone takes three months to find a job that matches their skills and experience rather than being forced to take something lower skilled after a month. Or indeed to waste their time applying for lower skilled jobs that they won't be hired for anyway, instead of focusing their job search on something more appropriate.
On that poll I think we could see Labour getting something like 43-45% and the Tories something like 33-34% with a bit of swing back. Labour are in majority territory, though maybe just a small one. Something that was unimaginable in the aftermath of the 2019 election. That's how badly Boris has blown it.
I don't think it'll be a majority, but a 2010 reversal is on the cards at the moment. Boris Brown...
Davey & Starmer are politically close enough, and Labour may get enough that he may not need the Nats...
Brown was undefeated at the ballot box, only Ed Miliband and Corbyn saw the Tories get a majority
Ah, yes, 2010, that famous Labour not-defeat when they were reduced to their lowest number of MPs for over two decades.
Brown won more MPs in 2010 than Miliband in 2015 and Corbyn in 2019 and than the Tories ever did from 1997 to 2005
So we need a leader representing a Scottish seat. So many choices...
And again, getting back to the point - the UC changes aren't going to be a negative for Rishi. It's going to be a fairly popular policy aimed at reducing long term unemployment. I don't think it hurts Rishi at all to be "tough on scroungers" and in a lot of households there will be confusion as to why this isn't already policy. The policy itself might not be very good (and I don't think it is, 3 months to find a new job seems fair) but that won't necessarily translate to votes.
Oh it will be popular until someone they know is impacted by it (and they will be). Which is why I like my more nuanced version with the timescales rapidly dropping if you need help a second or third time round.
Boris Johnson’s satisfaction rating has hit a record low amid the "Partygate" storm - falling to the same level as Theresa May’s worst score in her final months, exclusive @IpsosMORI poll for @EveningStandard finds... standard.co.uk/news/politics
Labour 40% (+1)
Conservative 31% (-3)
Lib dems 13 % (+2)
And @HYUFD will be along to say this is a good poll as labour's lead is less than 10%
Hold on, that comparison is BS because you can't compare right to centre+left. As we saw in 2010, the centre can end up siding with either wing.
What's most dangerous for the Tories is the Lab+Green score being so high. When it comes down to it leftist voters will be given the opportunity to kick the Tories out and they won't sabotage that by voting Green.
Spot on there Max. I really don't know where this idea that you lump in the LD's with Labour comes from.
Quite simple.
Main defining characteristic of the modern Labour Party is anti-Toryism. Lib Dems aren't Tories. Therefore Lib Dems are Labour.
Hold on, that comparison is BS because you can't compare right to centre+left. As we saw in 2010, the centre can end up siding with either wing.
What's most dangerous for the Tories is the Lab+Green score being so high. When it comes down to it leftist voters will be given the opportunity to kick the Tories out and they won't sabotage that by voting Green.
Spot on there Max. I really don't know where this idea that you lump in the LD's with Labour comes from.
Quite simple.
Main defining characteristic of the modern Labour Party is anti-Toryism. Lib Dems aren't Tories. Therefore Lib Dems are Labour.
And the current Lib Dems and Labour are clearly far more different from the Tories than they are from each other.
Jenrick was on R4 arguing that the NI hike should be delayed by a year in light of the 'cost of living crisis'. The problem then would be that the hike would be closer to the next GE, so that won't happen.
It strikes me that they have no choice but to go ahead with the NI hike (to cover NHS backlog + social care, as claimed) this year. Or, alternatively, find a fairer way of raising more money through taxation.
Boris Johnson’s satisfaction rating has hit a record low amid the "Partygate" storm - falling to the same level as Theresa May’s worst score in her final months, exclusive @IpsosMORI poll for @EveningStandard finds... standard.co.uk/news/politics
Labour lead still under 10% (and the previous poll from Ipsos Mori was 3rd-10th December last year, mainly before partygate)
You need to bear in mind there's a lot of Green votes for Labour to squeeze. At least half of that vote will go Labour at an actual GE.
If Corbyn is not reinstated by Starmer? Wishful thinking.
Plus remember Boris still has RefUK to squeeze further
Yes Boris is going to squeeze further a party that is polling so dreadfully they're not even named in the results. 😂
You'll grasp any straw won't you. You're the only person on the site who actually thinks RefUK are a serious party or relevant at all.
Labour will squeeze Green voters on the day. No one on the left will give up a chance of kicking Boris and the Tories out if it looks like they can. If someone like Rishi takes over and get the Tories up to 41 or 42 points Labour will struggle to do it.
You honestly think Sunak is going to get 41% to 42% after forcing skilled workers to take unskilled jobs just a month after redundancy from reports today and after he will responsible for the NI rise in April? Not to mention Sunak backed Brexit just like Boris so he is not going to appeal to remainers Cameron won but no longer voting Tory as he will not appeal to the redwall Boris won in 2019
People may not like the decisions that Sunak is making as Chancellor, but it's perfectly possible to win whilst being unpopular midterm for hard decisions made by a chancellor (Poll tax/1992). What people won't accept is rank hypocrisy and incompetence - (Back to basics/1997)
Major scrapped Thatcher's poll tax.
We face the Sunak NI rise in April and Sunak's UC change today hitting skilled workers.
Boris is not directly responsible for those
Boris's name is all over the NI rise (while Sunak was conspicuous by his absence in every announcement about it)
The UC change is a mis-step based on a complete misunderstand on how the economy works (hardly surprising given that the treasury is clueless on how the real world works) but if the Tories think it's a vote winner let them continue trying to introduce it.
Remember it can take 6 weeks for a company to onboard someone after they've got the job. Applying and interviews can easily be the same time frame again.
So if you apply for a job on day 1 it would take 3 months before you began at DWP / any other civil service department. That would be my test for a reasonable time frame.
It was Sunak who announced it as Chancellor and Boris will ensure Sunak is responsible for the NI rise and UC change
Which one will announce the reintroduction of workhouses?
Boris Johnson’s satisfaction rating has hit a record low amid the "Partygate" storm - falling to the same level as Theresa May’s worst score in her final months, exclusive @IpsosMORI poll for @EveningStandard finds... standard.co.uk/news/politics
Labour lead still under 10% (and the previous poll from Ipsos Mori was 3rd-10th December last year, mainly before partygate)
You need to bear in mind there's a lot of Green votes for Labour to squeeze. At least half of that vote will go Labour at an actual GE.
If Corbyn is not reinstated by Starmer? Wishful thinking.
Plus remember Boris still has RefUK to squeeze further
Yes Boris is going to squeeze further a party that is polling so dreadfully they're not even named in the results. 😂
You'll grasp any straw won't you. You're the only person on the site who actually thinks RefUK are a serious party or relevant at all.
Labour will squeeze Green voters on the day. No one on the left will give up a chance of kicking Boris and the Tories out if it looks like they can. If someone like Rishi takes over and get the Tories up to 41 or 42 points Labour will struggle to do it.
You honestly think Sunak is going to get 41% to 42% after forcing skilled workers to take unskilled jobs just a month after redundancy from reports today and after he will responsible for the NI rise in April? Not to mention Sunak backed Brexit just like Boris so he is not going to appeal to remainers Cameron won but no longer voting Tory as he will not appeal to the redwall Boris won in 2019
People may not like the decisions that Sunak is making as Chancellor, but it's perfectly possible to win whilst being unpopular midterm for hard decisions made by a chancellor (Poll tax/1992). What people won't accept is rank hypocrisy and incompetence - (Back to basics/1997)
Major scrapped Thatcher's poll tax.
We face the Sunak NI rise in April and Sunak's UC change today hitting skilled workers.
Boris is not directly responsible for those
Boris's name is all over the NI rise (while Sunak was conspicuous by his absence in every announcement about it)
The UC change is a mis-step based on a complete misunderstand on how the economy works (hardly surprising given that the treasury is clueless on how the real world works)
I don't think the UC change is a good policy, yet I also don't think it will be unpopular. You know who really hates the long term unemployed? The working poor. Bringing in policies to reduce long term unemployment and benefits dependency will probably be fairly popular.
I spoke to my friend who runs a JCP and deals with UC on a daily basis, she thinks it won't work, for several reasons.
1) Not enough work coaches to monitor it
2) People won't hire professionals for retail jobs etc because they don't have the experience and skillset, and employers will think, for example, here's an architect on 40k per year, what's the point in hiring/training them for a £12k job when they'll leave for a higher paying job in a few months.
A lot of those professionals don't bother signing up for UC in the first place.
Only if they have enough savings
Vote Conservative - have your toilets scrubbed by Humanities graduates.
Boris Johnson’s satisfaction rating has hit a record low amid the "Partygate" storm - falling to the same level as Theresa May’s worst score in her final months, exclusive @IpsosMORI poll for @EveningStandard finds... standard.co.uk/news/politics
Labour lead still under 10% (and the previous poll from Ipsos Mori was 3rd-10th December last year, mainly before partygate)
You need to bear in mind there's a lot of Green votes for Labour to squeeze. At least half of that vote will go Labour at an actual GE.
If Corbyn is not reinstated by Starmer? Wishful thinking.
Plus remember Boris still has RefUK to squeeze further
Yes Boris is going to squeeze further a party that is polling so dreadfully they're not even named in the results. 😂
You'll grasp any straw won't you. You're the only person on the site who actually thinks RefUK are a serious party or relevant at all.
Labour will squeeze Green voters on the day. No one on the left will give up a chance of kicking Boris and the Tories out if it looks like they can. If someone like Rishi takes over and get the Tories up to 41 or 42 points Labour will struggle to do it.
You honestly think Sunak is going to get 41% to 42% after forcing skilled workers to take unskilled jobs just a month after redundancy from reports today and after he will responsible for the NI rise in April? Not to mention Sunak backed Brexit just like Boris so he is not going to appeal to remainers Cameron won but no longer voting Tory as he will not appeal to the redwall Boris won in 2019
People may not like the decisions that Sunak is making as Chancellor, but it's perfectly possible to win whilst being unpopular midterm for hard decisions made by a chancellor (Poll tax/1992). What people won't accept is rank hypocrisy and incompetence - (Back to basics/1997)
Major scrapped Thatcher's poll tax.
We face the Sunak NI rise in April and Sunak's UC change today hitting skilled workers.
Boris is not directly responsible for those
Boris's name is all over the NI rise (while Sunak was conspicuous by his absence in every announcement about it)
The UC change is a mis-step based on a complete misunderstand on how the economy works (hardly surprising given that the treasury is clueless on how the real world works)
I don't think the UC change is a good policy, yet I also don't think it will be unpopular. You know who really hates the long term unemployed? The working poor. Bringing in policies to reduce long term unemployment and benefits dependency will probably be fairly popular.
Is 1 month long term unemployed? Yes many of the working poor think long term unemployed are too often freeloading, but not sure they will see this policy as addressing that.
Also completely clashes with the government claiming we have full employment and soaring pay. If so, why the need for the changes?
The government’s argument will be the fact we have a million vacancies, soaring pay and full employment, is exactly why they are making the changes.
They don’t want today’s equivalent of buggy whip makers, sitting on the dole for months waiting for new buggy whipping jobs that will never come along.
With the exception of the disabled, there’s no reason for anyone to be unemployed at the moment, even if it’s only working a few days a week for minimum wage.
Buggy whip aside. It is totally impossible to apply for and then begin a job in education in under 4 weeks. I don't know how the NHS works, but I can't see it being much different. Most newly advertised jobs have at least 2 weeks before even a closing date for applications. Politically it plays well. But it is utterly impractical.
Boris Johnson’s satisfaction rating has hit a record low amid the "Partygate" storm - falling to the same level as Theresa May’s worst score in her final months, exclusive @IpsosMORI poll for @EveningStandard finds... standard.co.uk/news/politics
Labour lead still under 10% (and the previous poll from Ipsos Mori was 3rd-10th December last year, mainly before partygate)
You need to bear in mind there's a lot of Green votes for Labour to squeeze. At least half of that vote will go Labour at an actual GE.
If Corbyn is not reinstated by Starmer? Wishful thinking.
Plus remember Boris still has RefUK to squeeze further
Yes Boris is going to squeeze further a party that is polling so dreadfully they're not even named in the results. 😂
You'll grasp any straw won't you. You're the only person on the site who actually thinks RefUK are a serious party or relevant at all.
Labour will squeeze Green voters on the day. No one on the left will give up a chance of kicking Boris and the Tories out if it looks like they can. If someone like Rishi takes over and get the Tories up to 41 or 42 points Labour will struggle to do it.
You honestly think Sunak is going to get 41% to 42% after forcing skilled workers to take unskilled jobs just a month after redundancy from reports today and after he will responsible for the NI rise in April? Not to mention Sunak backed Brexit just like Boris so he is not going to appeal to remainers Cameron won but no longer voting Tory as he will not appeal to the redwall Boris won in 2019
People may not like the decisions that Sunak is making as Chancellor, but it's perfectly possible to win whilst being unpopular midterm for hard decisions made by a chancellor (Poll tax/1992). What people won't accept is rank hypocrisy and incompetence - (Back to basics/1997)
Major scrapped Thatcher's poll tax.
We face the Sunak NI rise in April and Sunak's UC change today hitting skilled workers.
Boris is not directly responsible for those
Boris's name is all over the NI rise (while Sunak was conspicuous by his absence in every announcement about it)
The UC change is a mis-step based on a complete misunderstand on how the economy works (hardly surprising given that the treasury is clueless on how the real world works)
I don't think the UC change is a good policy, yet I also don't think it will be unpopular. You know who really hates the long term unemployed? The working poor. Bringing in policies to reduce long term unemployment and benefits dependency will probably be fairly popular.
I spoke to my friend who runs a JCP and deals with UC on a daily basis, she thinks it won't work, for several reasons.
1) Not enough work coaches to monitor it
2) People won't hire professionals for retail jobs etc because they don't have the experience and skillset, and employers will think, for example, here's an architect on 40k per year, what's the point in hiring/training them for a £12k job when they'll leave for a higher paying job in a few months.
A lot of those professionals don't bother signing up for UC in the first place.
Only if they have enough savings
Vote Conservative - have your toilets scrubbed by Humanities graduates.
Firstly they weren't graduates - it's aimed at Students. Secondly it's support for students already involved in it, not as papers claimed to encourage students to do it.
Finally it's also as old as time, I remember stories of students doing such work back in the very early 1990s as student loans first arrived.
Hold on, that comparison is BS because you can't compare right to centre+left. As we saw in 2010, the centre can end up siding with either wing.
What's most dangerous for the Tories is the Lab+Green score being so high. When it comes down to it leftist voters will be given the opportunity to kick the Tories out and they won't sabotage that by voting Green.
There is a but. If you regard LD as centre, equally unallied with left or right it leaves 2 puzzles:
1) Why are there almost no Lab v LD seats, while there are loads of Con v LD seats - the obvious explanation being that in parts of the country the LDs take the position of the non Tory vote, but not the position of the non Lab vote
2) Why is it assumed (rightly I think) that the LDs will in some way prop up a Labour government but not a Tory one, following the fall out after 2010.
Boris Johnson’s satisfaction rating has hit a record low amid the "Partygate" storm - falling to the same level as Theresa May’s worst score in her final months, exclusive @IpsosMORI poll for @EveningStandard finds... standard.co.uk/news/politics
Labour lead still under 10% (and the previous poll from Ipsos Mori was 3rd-10th December last year, mainly before partygate)
You need to bear in mind there's a lot of Green votes for Labour to squeeze. At least half of that vote will go Labour at an actual GE.
If Corbyn is not reinstated by Starmer? Wishful thinking.
Plus remember Boris still has RefUK to squeeze further
Yes Boris is going to squeeze further a party that is polling so dreadfully they're not even named in the results. 😂
You'll grasp any straw won't you. You're the only person on the site who actually thinks RefUK are a serious party or relevant at all.
Labour will squeeze Green voters on the day. No one on the left will give up a chance of kicking Boris and the Tories out if it looks like they can. If someone like Rishi takes over and get the Tories up to 41 or 42 points Labour will struggle to do it.
You honestly think Sunak is going to get 41% to 42% after forcing skilled workers to take unskilled jobs just a month after redundancy from reports today and after he will responsible for the NI rise in April? Not to mention Sunak backed Brexit just like Boris so he is not going to appeal to remainers Cameron won but no longer voting Tory as he will not appeal to the redwall Boris won in 2019
People may not like the decisions that Sunak is making as Chancellor, but it's perfectly possible to win whilst being unpopular midterm for hard decisions made by a chancellor (Poll tax/1992). What people won't accept is rank hypocrisy and incompetence - (Back to basics/1997)
Major scrapped Thatcher's poll tax.
We face the Sunak NI rise in April and Sunak's UC change today hitting skilled workers.
Boris is not directly responsible for those
Boris's name is all over the NI rise (while Sunak was conspicuous by his absence in every announcement about it)
The UC change is a mis-step based on a complete misunderstand on how the economy works (hardly surprising given that the treasury is clueless on how the real world works)
I don't think the UC change is a good policy, yet I also don't think it will be unpopular. You know who really hates the long term unemployed? The working poor. Bringing in policies to reduce long term unemployment and benefits dependency will probably be fairly popular.
Is 1 month long term unemployed? Yes many of the working poor think long term unemployed are too often freeloading, but not sure they will see this policy as addressing that.
Also completely clashes with the government claiming we have full employment and soaring pay. If so, why the need for the changes?
The government’s argument will be the fact we have a million vacancies, soaring pay and full employment, is exactly why they are making the changes.
They don’t want today’s equivalent of buggy whip makers, sitting on the dole for months waiting for new buggy whipping jobs that will never come along.
With the exception of the disabled, there’s no reason for anyone to be unemployed at the moment, even if it’s only working a few days a week for minimum wage.
Buggy whip aside. It is totally impossible to apply for and then begin a job in education in under 4 weeks. I don't know how the NHS works, but I can't see it being much different. Most newly advertised jobs have at least 2 weeks before even a closing date for applications. Politically it plays well. But it is utterly impractical.
The government’s argument is that there are a million jobs out there, many of them mostly unskilled such as driving, retail and hospitality, that people can be doing while they apply for jobs that better suit their skills, rather than rely totally on government to support them with handouts.
Boris Johnson’s satisfaction rating has hit a record low amid the "Partygate" storm - falling to the same level as Theresa May’s worst score in her final months, exclusive @IpsosMORI poll for @EveningStandard finds... standard.co.uk/news/politics
Labour lead still under 10% (and the previous poll from Ipsos Mori was 3rd-10th December last year, mainly before partygate)
You need to bear in mind there's a lot of Green votes for Labour to squeeze. At least half of that vote will go Labour at an actual GE.
If Corbyn is not reinstated by Starmer? Wishful thinking.
Plus remember Boris still has RefUK to squeeze further
Yes Boris is going to squeeze further a party that is polling so dreadfully they're not even named in the results. 😂
You'll grasp any straw won't you. You're the only person on the site who actually thinks RefUK are a serious party or relevant at all.
Labour will squeeze Green voters on the day. No one on the left will give up a chance of kicking Boris and the Tories out if it looks like they can. If someone like Rishi takes over and get the Tories up to 41 or 42 points Labour will struggle to do it.
You honestly think Sunak is going to get 41% to 42% after forcing skilled workers to take unskilled jobs just a month after redundancy from reports today and after he will responsible for the NI rise in April? Not to mention Sunak backed Brexit just like Boris so he is not going to appeal to remainers Cameron won but no longer voting Tory as he will not appeal to the redwall Boris won in 2019
People may not like the decisions that Sunak is making as Chancellor, but it's perfectly possible to win whilst being unpopular midterm for hard decisions made by a chancellor (Poll tax/1992). What people won't accept is rank hypocrisy and incompetence - (Back to basics/1997)
Major scrapped Thatcher's poll tax.
We face the Sunak NI rise in April and Sunak's UC change today hitting skilled workers.
Boris is not directly responsible for those
Boris's name is all over the NI rise (while Sunak was conspicuous by his absence in every announcement about it)
The UC change is a mis-step based on a complete misunderstand on how the economy works (hardly surprising given that the treasury is clueless on how the real world works)
I don't think the UC change is a good policy, yet I also don't think it will be unpopular. You know who really hates the long term unemployed? The working poor. Bringing in policies to reduce long term unemployment and benefits dependency will probably be fairly popular.
I spoke to my friend who runs a JCP and deals with UC on a daily basis, she thinks it won't work, for several reasons.
1) Not enough work coaches to monitor it
2) People won't hire professionals for retail jobs etc because they don't have the experience and skillset, and employers will think, for example, here's an architect on 40k per year, what's the point in hiring/training them for a £12k job when they'll leave for a higher paying job in a few months.
A lot of those professionals don't bother signing up for UC in the first place.
Only if they have enough savings
Vote Conservative - have your toilets scrubbed by Humanities graduates.
Firstly they weren't graduates - it's aimed at Students. Secondly it's support for students already involved in it, not as papers claimed to encourage students to do it.
Finally it's also as old as time, I remember stories of students doing such work back in the very early 1990s as student loans first arrived.
A bit flippant from me I guess, time I f8cked off and did something else
Boris Johnson’s satisfaction rating has hit a record low amid the "Partygate" storm - falling to the same level as Theresa May’s worst score in her final months, exclusive @IpsosMORI poll for @EveningStandard finds... standard.co.uk/news/politics
Labour lead still under 10% (and the previous poll from Ipsos Mori was 3rd-10th December last year, mainly before partygate)
You need to bear in mind there's a lot of Green votes for Labour to squeeze. At least half of that vote will go Labour at an actual GE.
If Corbyn is not reinstated by Starmer? Wishful thinking.
Plus remember Boris still has RefUK to squeeze further
Yes Boris is going to squeeze further a party that is polling so dreadfully they're not even named in the results. 😂
You'll grasp any straw won't you. You're the only person on the site who actually thinks RefUK are a serious party or relevant at all.
Labour will squeeze Green voters on the day. No one on the left will give up a chance of kicking Boris and the Tories out if it looks like they can. If someone like Rishi takes over and get the Tories up to 41 or 42 points Labour will struggle to do it.
You honestly think Sunak is going to get 41% to 42% after forcing skilled workers to take unskilled jobs just a month after redundancy from reports today and after he will responsible for the NI rise in April? Not to mention Sunak backed Brexit just like Boris so he is not going to appeal to remainers Cameron won but no longer voting Tory as he will not appeal to the redwall Boris won in 2019
People may not like the decisions that Sunak is making as Chancellor, but it's perfectly possible to win whilst being unpopular midterm for hard decisions made by a chancellor (Poll tax/1992). What people won't accept is rank hypocrisy and incompetence - (Back to basics/1997)
Major scrapped Thatcher's poll tax.
We face the Sunak NI rise in April and Sunak's UC change today hitting skilled workers.
Boris is not directly responsible for those
Boris's name is all over the NI rise (while Sunak was conspicuous by his absence in every announcement about it)
The UC change is a mis-step based on a complete misunderstand on how the economy works (hardly surprising given that the treasury is clueless on how the real world works)
I don't think the UC change is a good policy, yet I also don't think it will be unpopular. You know who really hates the long term unemployed? The working poor. Bringing in policies to reduce long term unemployment and benefits dependency will probably be fairly popular.
I spoke to my friend who runs a JCP and deals with UC on a daily basis, she thinks it won't work, for several reasons.
1) Not enough work coaches to monitor it
2) People won't hire professionals for retail jobs etc because they don't have the experience and skillset, and employers will think, for example, here's an architect on 40k per year, what's the point in hiring/training them for a £12k job when they'll leave for a higher paying job in a few months.
A lot of those professionals don't bother signing up for UC in the first place.
Only if they have enough savings
Vote Conservative - have your toilets scrubbed by Humanities graduates.
Vote Labour - have your toilets scrubbed by an Eastern European.
Boris Johnson’s satisfaction rating has hit a record low amid the "Partygate" storm - falling to the same level as Theresa May’s worst score in her final months, exclusive @IpsosMORI poll for @EveningStandard finds... standard.co.uk/news/politics
Labour lead still under 10% (and the previous poll from Ipsos Mori was 3rd-10th December last year, mainly before partygate)
You need to bear in mind there's a lot of Green votes for Labour to squeeze. At least half of that vote will go Labour at an actual GE.
If Corbyn is not reinstated by Starmer? Wishful thinking.
Plus remember Boris still has RefUK to squeeze further
Yes Boris is going to squeeze further a party that is polling so dreadfully they're not even named in the results. 😂
You'll grasp any straw won't you. You're the only person on the site who actually thinks RefUK are a serious party or relevant at all.
Labour will squeeze Green voters on the day. No one on the left will give up a chance of kicking Boris and the Tories out if it looks like they can. If someone like Rishi takes over and get the Tories up to 41 or 42 points Labour will struggle to do it.
You honestly think Sunak is going to get 41% to 42% after forcing skilled workers to take unskilled jobs just a month after redundancy from reports today and after he will responsible for the NI rise in April? Not to mention Sunak backed Brexit just like Boris so he is not going to appeal to remainers Cameron won but no longer voting Tory as he will not appeal to the redwall Boris won in 2019
People may not like the decisions that Sunak is making as Chancellor, but it's perfectly possible to win whilst being unpopular midterm for hard decisions made by a chancellor (Poll tax/1992). What people won't accept is rank hypocrisy and incompetence - (Back to basics/1997)
Major scrapped Thatcher's poll tax.
We face the Sunak NI rise in April and Sunak's UC change today hitting skilled workers.
Boris is not directly responsible for those
Boris's name is all over the NI rise (while Sunak was conspicuous by his absence in every announcement about it)
The UC change is a mis-step based on a complete misunderstand on how the economy works (hardly surprising given that the treasury is clueless on how the real world works)
I don't think the UC change is a good policy, yet I also don't think it will be unpopular. You know who really hates the long term unemployed? The working poor. Bringing in policies to reduce long term unemployment and benefits dependency will probably be fairly popular.
Is 1 month long term unemployed? Yes many of the working poor think long term unemployed are too often freeloading, but not sure they will see this policy as addressing that.
Also completely clashes with the government claiming we have full employment and soaring pay. If so, why the need for the changes?
The government’s argument will be the fact we have a million vacancies, soaring pay and full employment, is exactly why they are making the changes.
They don’t want today’s equivalent of buggy whip makers, sitting on the dole for months waiting for new buggy whipping jobs that will never come along.
With the exception of the disabled, there’s no reason for anyone to be unemployed at the moment, even if it’s only working a few days a week for minimum wage.
Buggy whip aside. It is totally impossible to apply for and then begin a job in education in under 4 weeks. I don't know how the NHS works, but I can't see it being much different. Most newly advertised jobs have at least 2 weeks before even a closing date for applications. Politically it plays well. But it is utterly impractical.
The government’s argument is that there are a million jobs out there, many of them mostly unskilled such as driving, retail and hospitality, that people can be doing while they apply for jobs that better suit their skills, rather than rely totally on government to support them with handouts.
I know perfectly well what the government's argument is. Others have pointed out that no one will employ people they know are going to be around for a couple of months at the most while they find themselves another more suitable job.
Boris Johnson’s satisfaction rating has hit a record low amid the "Partygate" storm - falling to the same level as Theresa May’s worst score in her final months, exclusive @IpsosMORI poll for @EveningStandard finds... standard.co.uk/news/politics
Labour lead still under 10% (and the previous poll from Ipsos Mori was 3rd-10th December last year, mainly before partygate)
You need to bear in mind there's a lot of Green votes for Labour to squeeze. At least half of that vote will go Labour at an actual GE.
If Corbyn is not reinstated by Starmer? Wishful thinking.
Plus remember Boris still has RefUK to squeeze further
Yes Boris is going to squeeze further a party that is polling so dreadfully they're not even named in the results. 😂
You'll grasp any straw won't you. You're the only person on the site who actually thinks RefUK are a serious party or relevant at all.
Labour will squeeze Green voters on the day. No one on the left will give up a chance of kicking Boris and the Tories out if it looks like they can. If someone like Rishi takes over and get the Tories up to 41 or 42 points Labour will struggle to do it.
You honestly think Sunak is going to get 41% to 42% after forcing skilled workers to take unskilled jobs just a month after redundancy from reports today and after he will responsible for the NI rise in April? Not to mention Sunak backed Brexit just like Boris so he is not going to appeal to remainers Cameron won but no longer voting Tory as he will not appeal to the redwall Boris won in 2019
People may not like the decisions that Sunak is making as Chancellor, but it's perfectly possible to win whilst being unpopular midterm for hard decisions made by a chancellor (Poll tax/1992). What people won't accept is rank hypocrisy and incompetence - (Back to basics/1997)
Major scrapped Thatcher's poll tax.
We face the Sunak NI rise in April and Sunak's UC change today hitting skilled workers.
Boris is not directly responsible for those
Boris's name is all over the NI rise (while Sunak was conspicuous by his absence in every announcement about it)
The UC change is a mis-step based on a complete misunderstand on how the economy works (hardly surprising given that the treasury is clueless on how the real world works)
I don't think the UC change is a good policy, yet I also don't think it will be unpopular. You know who really hates the long term unemployed? The working poor. Bringing in policies to reduce long term unemployment and benefits dependency will probably be fairly popular.
Is 1 month long term unemployed? Yes many of the working poor think long term unemployed are too often freeloading, but not sure they will see this policy as addressing that.
Also completely clashes with the government claiming we have full employment and soaring pay. If so, why the need for the changes?
The government’s argument will be the fact we have a million vacancies, soaring pay and full employment, is exactly why they are making the changes.
They don’t want today’s equivalent of buggy whip makers, sitting on the dole for months waiting for new buggy whipping jobs that will never come along.
With the exception of the disabled, there’s no reason for anyone to be unemployed at the moment, even if it’s only working a few days a week for minimum wage.
Buggy whip aside. It is totally impossible to apply for and then begin a job in education in under 4 weeks. I don't know how the NHS works, but I can't see it being much different. Most newly advertised jobs have at least 2 weeks before even a closing date for applications. Politically it plays well. But it is utterly impractical.
The government’s argument is that there are a million jobs out there, many of them mostly unskilled such as driving, retail and hospitality, that people can be doing while they apply for jobs that better suit their skills, rather than rely totally on government to support them with handouts.
It doesn't work like this, as all the previous literature on sanctions has shown. Look at what the National Audit Office has to say about it.
There will certainly be costs borne in terms of homelessness and mental illness, though ; that's also well-documented.
Hold on, that comparison is BS because you can't compare right to centre+left. As we saw in 2010, the centre can end up siding with either wing.
What's most dangerous for the Tories is the Lab+Green score being so high. When it comes down to it leftist voters will be given the opportunity to kick the Tories out and they won't sabotage that by voting Green.
There is a but. If you regard LD as centre, equally unallied with left or right it leaves 2 puzzles:
1) Why are there almost no Lab v LD seats, while there are loads of Con v LD seats - the obvious explanation being that in parts of the country the LDs take the position of the non Tory vote, but not the position of the non Lab vote
2) Why is it assumed (rightly I think) that the LDs will in some way prop up a Labour government but not a Tory one, following the fall out after 2010.
I would say mainstream Lib Dem opinion is equidistant from the current manifestation of the Tories, and Corbynism. Even in the last election though, the overriding issue of Brexit pushed more to vote tactically for Labour than for the Tories.
With Starmer heading Labour they are now clearly closer to the Lib Dems than the government is. To bring them back into equidistance you'd need something like a Rory Stewart-led Tory party with a positive attitude to Europe and the JRMs, Patels, Raabs and the rest of that shower in the backbench wilderness.
Boris Johnson’s satisfaction rating has hit a record low amid the "Partygate" storm - falling to the same level as Theresa May’s worst score in her final months, exclusive @IpsosMORI poll for @EveningStandard finds... standard.co.uk/news/politics
Labour lead still under 10% (and the previous poll from Ipsos Mori was 3rd-10th December last year, mainly before partygate)
You need to bear in mind there's a lot of Green votes for Labour to squeeze. At least half of that vote will go Labour at an actual GE.
If Corbyn is not reinstated by Starmer? Wishful thinking.
Plus remember Boris still has RefUK to squeeze further
Yes Boris is going to squeeze further a party that is polling so dreadfully they're not even named in the results. 😂
You'll grasp any straw won't you. You're the only person on the site who actually thinks RefUK are a serious party or relevant at all.
Labour will squeeze Green voters on the day. No one on the left will give up a chance of kicking Boris and the Tories out if it looks like they can. If someone like Rishi takes over and get the Tories up to 41 or 42 points Labour will struggle to do it.
You honestly think Sunak is going to get 41% to 42% after forcing skilled workers to take unskilled jobs just a month after redundancy from reports today and after he will responsible for the NI rise in April? Not to mention Sunak backed Brexit just like Boris so he is not going to appeal to remainers Cameron won but no longer voting Tory as he will not appeal to the redwall Boris won in 2019
People may not like the decisions that Sunak is making as Chancellor, but it's perfectly possible to win whilst being unpopular midterm for hard decisions made by a chancellor (Poll tax/1992). What people won't accept is rank hypocrisy and incompetence - (Back to basics/1997)
Major scrapped Thatcher's poll tax.
We face the Sunak NI rise in April and Sunak's UC change today hitting skilled workers.
Boris is not directly responsible for those
Boris's name is all over the NI rise (while Sunak was conspicuous by his absence in every announcement about it)
The UC change is a mis-step based on a complete misunderstand on how the economy works (hardly surprising given that the treasury is clueless on how the real world works) but if the Tories think it's a vote winner let them continue trying to introduce it.
Remember it can take 6 weeks for a company to onboard someone after they've got the job. Applying and interviews can easily be the same time frame again.
So if you apply for a job on day 1 it would take 3 months before you began at DWP / any other civil service department. That would be my test for a reasonable time frame.
It was Sunak who announced it as Chancellor and Boris will ensure Sunak is responsible for the NI rise and UC change
Which one will announce the reintroduction of workhouses?
Red meat for the faithful.
I'm reminded of this (quoting wiki):
"the 1536 Act for Punishment of Sturdy Vagabonds and Beggars was passed. This more severe law stated that those caught outside of their parish without work would be punished by being whipped through the streets. If caught a second time they could lose an ear and if caught a third time they could be executed"
Three for one - inclouding a spot of flage and the death penalty. Just what they are calling for in the streets of Epping.
Hold on, that comparison is BS because you can't compare right to centre+left. As we saw in 2010, the centre can end up siding with either wing.
What's most dangerous for the Tories is the Lab+Green score being so high. When it comes down to it leftist voters will be given the opportunity to kick the Tories out and they won't sabotage that by voting Green.
There is a but. If you regard LD as centre, equally unallied with left or right it leaves 2 puzzles:
1) Why are there almost no Lab v LD seats, while there are loads of Con v LD seats - the obvious explanation being that in parts of the country the LDs take the position of the non Tory vote, but not the position of the non Lab vote
2) Why is it assumed (rightly I think) that the LDs will in some way prop up a Labour government but not a Tory one, following the fall out after 2010.
It's much easier when you're out of power to make a case for change. It's easier to imagine the Lib Dems aligning with the party that's taking power than the one that's on the verge of losing it. Plus the fact that the Conservatives have lurched in a more authoritarian direction that doesn't suit Lib Dem sensibilities. That's not so much a left-right thing. 2010 was about finances, but the next election will be about other things as well.
There's zero chance of the Lib Dems supporting a Brexiter party clamping down on protest.
Boris Johnson’s satisfaction rating has hit a record low amid the "Partygate" storm - falling to the same level as Theresa May’s worst score in her final months, exclusive @IpsosMORI poll for @EveningStandard finds... standard.co.uk/news/politics
Labour lead still under 10% (and the previous poll from Ipsos Mori was 3rd-10th December last year, mainly before partygate)
You need to bear in mind there's a lot of Green votes for Labour to squeeze. At least half of that vote will go Labour at an actual GE.
If Corbyn is not reinstated by Starmer? Wishful thinking.
Plus remember Boris still has RefUK to squeeze further
Yes Boris is going to squeeze further a party that is polling so dreadfully they're not even named in the results. 😂
You'll grasp any straw won't you. You're the only person on the site who actually thinks RefUK are a serious party or relevant at all.
Labour will squeeze Green voters on the day. No one on the left will give up a chance of kicking Boris and the Tories out if it looks like they can. If someone like Rishi takes over and get the Tories up to 41 or 42 points Labour will struggle to do it.
You honestly think Sunak is going to get 41% to 42% after forcing skilled workers to take unskilled jobs just a month after redundancy from reports today and after he will responsible for the NI rise in April? Not to mention Sunak backed Brexit just like Boris so he is not going to appeal to remainers Cameron won but no longer voting Tory as he will not appeal to the redwall Boris won in 2019
People may not like the decisions that Sunak is making as Chancellor, but it's perfectly possible to win whilst being unpopular midterm for hard decisions made by a chancellor (Poll tax/1992). What people won't accept is rank hypocrisy and incompetence - (Back to basics/1997)
Major scrapped Thatcher's poll tax.
We face the Sunak NI rise in April and Sunak's UC change today hitting skilled workers.
Boris is not directly responsible for those
Boris's name is all over the NI rise (while Sunak was conspicuous by his absence in every announcement about it)
The UC change is a mis-step based on a complete misunderstand on how the economy works (hardly surprising given that the treasury is clueless on how the real world works) but if the Tories think it's a vote winner let them continue trying to introduce it.
Remember it can take 6 weeks for a company to onboard someone after they've got the job. Applying and interviews can easily be the same time frame again.
So if you apply for a job on day 1 it would take 3 months before you began at DWP / any other civil service department. That would be my test for a reasonable time frame.
It was Sunak who announced it as Chancellor and Boris will ensure Sunak is responsible for the NI rise and UC change
Which one will announce the reintroduction of workhouses?
Red meat for the faithful.
I'm reminded of this (quoting wiki):
"the 1536 Act for Punishment of Sturdy Vagabonds and Beggars was passed. This mo...re severe law stated that those caught outside of their parish without work would be punished by being whipped through the streets. If caught a second time they could lose an ear and if caught a third time they could be executed"
Three for one - inclouding a spot of flage and the death penalty. Just what they are calling for in the streets of Epping.
Boris continues to sink but the Tory vote appears to have bottomed out. Maybe the difference is the bunch expecting a new leader along soon?
If the current PM clings on, so the party rating drops again in disappointment?
I think that previously the party was a drag on the leader, but now it is that the leader is a drag on the party. Plenty on here who dislike Johnson and think he should go, but will still vote for a donkey in a blue rosette.
Hold on, that comparison is BS because you can't compare right to centre+left. As we saw in 2010, the centre can end up siding with either wing.
What's most dangerous for the Tories is the Lab+Green score being so high. When it comes down to it leftist voters will be given the opportunity to kick the Tories out and they won't sabotage that by voting Green.
There is a but. If you regard LD as centre, equally unallied with left or right it leaves 2 puzzles:
1) Why are there almost no Lab v LD seats, while there are loads of Con v LD seats - the obvious explanation being that in parts of the country the LDs take the position of the non Tory vote, but not the position of the non Lab vote
2) Why is it assumed (rightly I think) that the LDs will in some way prop up a Labour government but not a Tory one, following the fall out after 2010.
It's much easier when you're out of power to make a case for change. It's easier to imagine the Lib Dems aligning with the party that's taking power than the one that's on the verge of losing it. Plus the fact that the Conservatives have lurched in a more authoritarian direction that doesn't suit Lib Dem sensibilities. That's not so much a left-right thing. 2010 was about finances, but the next election will be about other things as well.
Agreed. You have five considerations for the LibDems, all pointing the same way:
- all other things being equal, they see themselves as more centre-left than centre-right; - helping to replace a government of falling popularity is more attractive than propping it up; - siding with the opposite side from last time restores some balance; - the Tories shafted them the last time; - on the topical big ticket policy items, there are big differences with the Tories and few with Labour.
Plus (stemming from the above), a recovery in their fortunes would mean tactical voting is back, and they're not going to blow that out of the water a second time.
Hold on, that comparison is BS because you can't compare right to centre+left. As we saw in 2010, the centre can end up siding with either wing.
What's most dangerous for the Tories is the Lab+Green score being so high. When it comes down to it leftist voters will be given the opportunity to kick the Tories out and they won't sabotage that by voting Green.
There is a but. If you regard LD as centre, equally unallied with left or right it leaves 2 puzzles:
1) Why are there almost no Lab v LD seats, while there are loads of Con v LD seats - the obvious explanation being that in parts of the country the LDs take the position of the non Tory vote, but not the position of the non Lab vote
2) Why is it assumed (rightly I think) that the LDs will in some way prop up a Labour government but not a Tory one, following the fall out after 2010.
I would say mainstream Lib Dem opinion is equidistant from the current manifestation of the Tories, and Corbynism. Even in the last election though, the overriding issue of Brexit pushed more to vote tactically for Labour than for the Tories.
With Starmer heading Labour they are now clearly closer to the Lib Dems than the government is. To bring them back into equidistance you'd need something like a Rory Stewart-led Tory party with a positive attitude to Europe and the JRMs, Patels, Raabs and the rest of that shower in the backbench wilderness.
Broadly agree. The 2019 election will go down in history as extraordinary. The LDs should have done fantastically well. It was their golden opportunity to be the moderates between extremes.
Given the reality of the close Brexit vote and the solidity of the ex-remain voting camp the door was open for a moderate democratic LD party to garner the votes of moderate Labour, remainer one Nation Tories, sane Brexiteers and traditional LDs, with a soft Brexit policy such as 'Norway for Now'.
Instead they affronted democracy by campaigning to revoke. With both Tories and Labour led by different sorts of incompatible extremists the LDs had to try hard to do truly terribly but they managed.
Boris Johnson’s satisfaction rating has hit a record low amid the "Partygate" storm - falling to the same level as Theresa May’s worst score in her final months, exclusive @IpsosMORI poll for @EveningStandard finds... standard.co.uk/news/politics
Labour lead still under 10% (and the previous poll from Ipsos Mori was 3rd-10th December last year, mainly before partygate)
You need to bear in mind there's a lot of Green votes for Labour to squeeze. At least half of that vote will go Labour at an actual GE.
If Corbyn is not reinstated by Starmer? Wishful thinking.
Plus remember Boris still has RefUK to squeeze further
Yes Boris is going to squeeze further a party that is polling so dreadfully they're not even named in the results. 😂
You'll grasp any straw won't you. You're the only person on the site who actually thinks RefUK are a serious party or relevant at all.
Labour will squeeze Green voters on the day. No one on the left will give up a chance of kicking Boris and the Tories out if it looks like they can. If someone like Rishi takes over and get the Tories up to 41 or 42 points Labour will struggle to do it.
You honestly think Sunak is going to get 41% to 42% after forcing skilled workers to take unskilled jobs just a month after redundancy from reports today and after he will responsible for the NI rise in April? Not to mention Sunak backed Brexit just like Boris so he is not going to appeal to remainers Cameron won but no longer voting Tory as he will not appeal to the redwall Boris won in 2019
Yes, competence will go a long way to restoring the Tory score. His ceiling is probably around there and people are still willing to give the Tories a listen, just not Boris.
Last poll with a Sunak led Tories had the Tories on 34% not over 40% and that was before his UC announcement today hitting skilled workers made redundant
You can't take a poll before he's taken office as final. The UC announcement is barely going to register, I mean there's about 1.5m people in the whole country on UC and by and large people would prefer that number to be lower. I'd actually rate that policy as something which will go down well - "make the scroungers go and do some work" etc... was a fairly common expression on the estate where I grew up.
5,678,072.
I think roll out is only about 60% complete, so will be more like 9.5 million eventually.
Jenrick was on R4 arguing that the NI hike should be delayed by a year in light of the 'cost of living crisis'. The problem then would be that the hike would be closer to the next GE, so that won't happen.
It strikes me that they have no choice but to go ahead with the NI hike (to cover NHS backlog + social care, as claimed) this year. Or, alternatively, find a fairer way of raising more money through taxation.
If they don't increase NI now they will find it harder to find the money for the pre-election income tax cut.
Consequently they need to do something eye-catching - and temporarily effective - on the cost of living. The idea of massive loans to energy companies to prevent an increase in the energy price cap might be the thing.
I am reliably informed the next episode of the Daily Politics starts with David Cameron in the shower with George Osborne shouting come out now you are going wrinkly
Comments
Boris has opened the door to a Labour majority, even with a dud like Starmer as leader.
Because that election, with Boris in charge, is going to be just as desperate a rearguard for the Tories as this whole affair.
But I think ultimately that is why he will be vonc'ed - once the letters come in the dawning will be that it's now or never (not have another bite next year). Expect to hear 'loyal' ministers strangely over-emphasising how 'Boris will.lead us into the next General Election', even when that wasn't the question asked, perhaps with some other scarily hubristic predictions of Boris's great deeds.
Sion Simon, Tory ministers in the next few weeks are coming for your special place in PB history.
We face the Sunak NI rise in April and Sunak's UC change today hitting skilled workers.
Boris is not directly responsible for those
Plus, while we do criticise it political direction is relevant and it might be appropriate to swap personnel particular if one area has gone wrong and you need a competent person in to manage things even without prior background. And you couldn't promote a talented minister to a other area they might be really good at. And what if someone resigns and the only viable under that scenario are for some reason not suitable.
I think it sounds good but would not help. Knowledge is not the problem, a good minister would be briefed (and brief themselves to not be wholly dependent on Sir Humphrey) and they're not expected to know everything. Using knowledge effectively is something else, and a requirement like that helps a small number get ministerial training but is not flexible enough.
At the moment.
The UC change is a mis-step based on a complete misunderstand on how the economy works (hardly surprising given that the treasury is clueless on how the real world works) but if the Tories think it's a vote winner let them continue trying to introduce it.
Remember it can take 6 weeks for a company to onboard someone after they've got the job. Applying and interviews can easily be the same time frame again.
So if you apply for a job on day 1 it would take 3 months before you began at DWP / any other civil service department. That would be my test for a reasonable time frame.
1) If there was a general election tomorrow Who would you vote for?
2) Given that in your constituency only X and Y can plausibly win, who will you vote for?
I suspect the answer to the second Q would significantly reduce the Lib Dem / Green / RefUK votes and more accurately reflect actual voting.
FFS.
PB is famous for focussing on Ipsos MORI because the leader ratings are the gold standard and go back to the 1970s.
Those ratings have accurately predicted every GE.
Lead on those and you win.
This one suggests the deputy private sec to the foreign sec was seeking permission from No 10 regarding evacuation of Nowzad charity .. https://twitter.com/sima_kotecha/status/1486692842277941251/photo/1
And this one from Nigel Casey (PM’s special rep to Afghan) requesting clear guidance from no 10 on what they would like us to do .. again suggesting his permission was key. https://twitter.com/sima_kotecha/status/1486693610414350342/photo/1
Boris is still the best Tory to win the voters they gained from Brexit and no alternative leader will regain the voters they have lost since Brexit without leaking lots of voters to RefUK too if they go to EEA or a CU and Starmer would do the latter anyway
Although the vast, vast majority of people on UC are not the long-term unemployed. Or even unemployed at all.
1) Not enough work coaches to monitor it
2) People won't hire professionals for retail jobs etc because they don't have the experience and skillset, and employers will think, for example, here's an architect on 40k per year, what's the point in hiring/training them for a £12k job when they'll leave for a higher paying job in a few months.
If he's resigned a year ago saying 'I am not paying that, for that sh8t' he would now be in absolute poll position.
But he kept writing the furlough cheques, some of which were to fraudsters, and others of which were to big companies that made money anyhow.
Not good either way.
But with Boris still PM, the centre is way less likely to tend Tory.
What I think needs to be the case is a bit of nuance.
First time claim in 3+ years you get 3 months to find something in your field, second claim in 3 years - 1 month, subsequent claims 0 days.
What we have instead is a policy that looks strict but would actually create problems.
Also completely clashes with the government claiming we have full employment and soaring pay. If so, why the need for the changes?
Example is the 35 hours per week jobsearch requirement. If you have access to the Internet, you can source all available local vacancies and apply by uploading your CV, or copy and pasting an application form in well under a day if you don't live in a big city.
They are however still advising folk to phone companies on spec, or walk in and hand in a CV.
Even though virtually no one recruits like this these days. And businesses just don't want folk wandering in off the streets to not buy anything.
They don’t want today’s equivalent of buggy whip makers, sitting on the dole for months waiting for new buggy whipping jobs that will never come along.
With the exception of the disabled, there’s no reason for anyone to be unemployed at the moment, even if it’s only working a few days a week for minimum wage.
Furlough? it must have seemed a great idea at the time LOL.
Main defining characteristic of the modern Labour Party is anti-Toryism. Lib Dems aren't Tories. Therefore Lib Dems are Labour.
It strikes me that they have no choice but to go ahead with the NI hike (to cover NHS backlog + social care, as claimed) this year. Or, alternatively, find a fairer way of raising more money through taxation.
Red meat for the faithful.
It requires Labour and Liberal to avoid being mean about each other and gloating too much when they best the other in by-elections or whatever.
My sense is that Sirs Keir and Ed are more consensual and collegiate in this regard and should be able to lead by example.
We'll see.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/sex-work-durham-university-students-b1956484.html
I don't know how the NHS works, but I can't see it being much different. Most newly advertised jobs have at least 2 weeks before even a closing date for applications.
Politically it plays well. But it is utterly impractical.
Finally it's also as old as time, I remember stories of students doing such work back in the very early 1990s as student loans first arrived.
NEW – Best Prime Minister: https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1486697068550930438/photo/1
NEW - Leaders ratings: https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1486697063018639362/photo/1
1) Why are there almost no Lab v LD seats, while there are loads of Con v LD seats - the obvious explanation being that in parts of the country the LDs take the position of the non Tory vote, but not the position of the non Lab vote
2) Why is it assumed (rightly I think) that the LDs will in some way prop up a Labour government but not a Tory one, following the fall out after 2010.
Vote Green - have a compost toilet.
Vote LibDem - point at dogs' toilet.
Others have pointed out that no one will employ people they know are going to be around for a couple of months at the most while they find themselves another more suitable job.
Steel baron wrote to senior Tory thanking him for his “personally instrumental” role in facilitating loans now subject to fraud investigation.
💣from @cynthiao (w/ help from @PickardJE and me): https://www.ft.com/content/fe8c33e7-a846-4f98-ab33-68b580c6896f
There will certainly be costs borne in terms of homelessness and mental illness, though ; that's also well-documented.
With Starmer heading Labour they are now clearly closer to the Lib Dems than the government is. To bring them back into equidistance you'd need something like a Rory Stewart-led Tory party with a positive attitude to Europe and the JRMs, Patels, Raabs and the rest of that shower in the backbench wilderness.
"the 1536 Act for Punishment of Sturdy Vagabonds and Beggars was passed. This more severe law stated that those caught outside of their parish without work would be punished by being whipped through the streets. If caught a second time they could lose an ear and if caught a third time they could be executed"
Three for one - inclouding a spot of flage and the death penalty. Just what they are calling for in the streets of Epping.
If the current PM clings on, so the party rating drops again in disappointment?
- all other things being equal, they see themselves as more centre-left than centre-right;
- helping to replace a government of falling popularity is more attractive than propping it up;
- siding with the opposite side from last time restores some balance;
- the Tories shafted them the last time;
- on the topical big ticket policy items, there are big differences with the Tories and few with Labour.
Plus (stemming from the above), a recovery in their fortunes would mean tactical voting is back, and they're not going to blow that out of the water a second time.
NEW THREAD
Given the reality of the close Brexit vote and the solidity of the ex-remain voting camp the door was open for a moderate democratic LD party to garner the votes of moderate Labour, remainer one Nation Tories, sane Brexiteers and traditional LDs, with a soft Brexit policy such as 'Norway for Now'.
Instead they affronted democracy by campaigning to revoke. With both Tories and Labour led by different sorts of incompatible extremists the LDs had to try hard to do truly terribly but they managed.
I think roll out is only about 60% complete, so will be more like 9.5 million eventually.
Consequently they need to do something eye-catching - and temporarily effective - on the cost of living. The idea of massive loans to energy companies to prevent an increase in the energy price cap might be the thing.
There was no party
There was no PM
I am reliably informed the next episode of the Daily Politics starts with David Cameron in the shower with George Osborne shouting come out now you are going wrinkly