Apologies if this has been pointed out. But in my sector, education, the timescale from application to closing date, to shortlist, interview, second interview, references, enhanced DBS to start date is longer than four weeks. Far longer last time I tried. I assume for some others it may be too. Edit. I notice it has.
When I was fresh out of university I applied for job A in the summer, job B in the early autumn and job C a few weeks later. (And lots of other jobs too, of course)
I had my first interview for job A before I applied for job C. Not sure exactly when I had the interviews for jobs B and C, but I was offered job B on my first day of job C, and had my second interview for job A during my second week at job C, which was my last week in that job, before starting job B the next week.
Was told informally at second interview for job A that I would be offered the job, but they had to have a meeting first to decide how much to offer me in pay before sending the formal offer.
I ended up working at job B for just over four months, while waiting for security clearance to start job A, which organisation I stayed at for more than a decade.
Jobs B and C only gave me the time of day because I was a fresh graduate, and so they thought they could have a look at me in a low level role before moving me to something better internally. They wouldn't even consider me these days for those jobs now, because my CV would make it obvious I'd be moving on asap, and it would be a waste of their time.
BUT - I really don't think this change will be applied to harass people like me. It certainly wasn't last time I claimed JSA, even though I'd been out of work with depression for more than a year.
It will be used to harass people lower down the economic ladder. And that's why politically it is a plus for HMG.
SKS fans please explain As i forecast SKS peaked at 11.59 am on 19.1.22
Kaboom, Boris now slashes the Labour lead to under 5%!!
Well back into hung parliament territory again now
A no change poll is a "Kaboom" and a slashing? 🤦♂️
I thought you pretended to know polling and understand how it works, do you even know what the "(-)" after the poll shares means?
With all due respect, I don't think you're a polling expert at all, I just think you have a log of polls that suit your agenda and that you can cherrypick and pull out to your hearts content when it suits your interests to do so.
The Lab lead was 13 before last weeks PMQs the 3 polls since have the lead as 7,8,4 an average of 6.33 so basically halved
The average Lab lead was not 13, that is a lie. One pollster had a 13 and that could have been an outlier.
The 4 is showing no change from previously while the 8 was a reduction in the lead from 9 before last weeks PMQs so basically a margin of error swing of 0.5%
Poor BartholomewRoberts. Poor Dom.
Their plan to get rid of Boris is falling apart all around them at the moment
Another thought on the daft 3 month to 1 month DWP change.
I very much doubt that DWP have the staff to manage this change. There was talk of extra jobs coaches and so on. Plus someone needs to decide whether a person has made an effort in that 3 months to find any job.
Maybe they could all be employed as job coaches investigating each other?
Never mind the mood music, @AlastairMeeks has 128 mps in the hostile-icy-cool camp 94 friendly 137 neutral or unknown. Even if only 128 vote against that is pretty much as bad as the 117 against T May adjusting for more MPs overall. Assuming Gray is bad for Boris and assuming there are more dissemblers secretly anti Boris than secretly pro, both reasonable assumptions, it doesn’t look good for him.
What are you expecting Gray to say (if it ever arrives!)?
My guess is it will be a lot of bureaucratese saying exactly what we already know, or less.
No 10's latest wheeze seems to be to draw out the process of publication as long as possible so that Ukraine and other events take over in the public consciousness. Then when it's published the couer de cri will be "Why aren't the media focussing on the important issues, they've spent weeks on the Gray report". The longer No 10 drags it out, the more bored with it everyone becomes and the lesser the impact.
SKS fans please explain As i forecast SKS peaked at 11.59 am on 19.1.22
Kaboom, Boris now slashes the Labour lead to under 5%!!
Well back into hung parliament territory again now
A no change poll is a "Kaboom" and a slashing? 🤦♂️
I thought you pretended to know polling and understand how it works, do you even know what the "(-)" after the poll shares means?
With all due respect, I don't think you're a polling expert at all, I just think you have a log of polls that suit your agenda and that you can cherrypick and pull out to your hearts content when it suits your interests to do so.
2 weeks ago Labour were 10 points ahead or more, now all the polls show Boris has slashed the Labour lead to under 5%.
Indeed on the Kantar poll today it would now be neck and neck after the new boundaries, Labour 284, Tories 273.
The most recent polls by pollster, for the regular pollsters, from Wikipedia:
Redfield & Wilton 7% Lab lead Kantar 4% Lab lead Survation 10% Lab lead Savanta ComRes 8% Lab lead Deltapoll 9% Lab lead YouGov 8% Lab lead Opinium 10% Lab lead
So far from all the polls showing the lead has been slashed to under 5%, the reality is that only Kantar shows that. All other pollsters show higher.
Incidentally Kantar's 4% Lab lead is the joint highest Lab lead they have ever had. So even that one's not slashed.
So your claim that the lead has been slashed to under 5% is 100% false and untrue - the only regular pollster showing the lead under 5% never had the lead higher than it in the first place, and all other pollsters leads are higher.
I think that's a bit unfair. My fellow Essex man has fallen into the trap junior researchers sometimes do, of not researching widely enough round the subject before writing their paper.
Apologies if this has been pointed out. But in my sector, education, the timescale from application to closing date, to shortlist, interview, second interview, references, enhanced DBS to start date is longer than four weeks. Far longer last time I tried. I assume for some others it may be too. Edit. I notice it has.
When I was fresh out of university I applied for job A in the summer, job B in the early autumn and job C a few weeks later. (And lots of other jobs too, of course)
I had my first interview for job A before I applied for job C. Not sure exactly when I had the interviews for jobs B and C, but I was offered job B on my first day of job C, and had my second interview for job A during my second week at job C, which was my last week in that job, before starting job B the next week.
Was told informally at second interview for job A that I would be offered the job, but they had to have a meeting first to decide how much to offer me in pay before sending the formal offer.
I ended up working at job B for just over four months, while waiting for security clearance to start job A, which organisation I stayed at for more than a decade.
Jobs B and C only gave me the time of day because I was a fresh graduate, and so they thought they could have a look at me in a low level role before moving me to something better internally. They wouldn't even consider me these days for those jobs now, because my CV would make it obvious I'd be moving on asap, and it would be a waste of their time.
BUT - I really don't think this change will be applied to harass people like me. It certainly wasn't last time I claimed JSA, even though I'd been out of work with depression for more than a year.
It will be used to harass people lower down the economic ladder. And that's why politically it is a plus for HMG.
SKS fans please explain As i forecast SKS peaked at 11.59 am on 19.1.22
Kaboom, Boris now slashes the Labour lead to under 5%!!
Well back into hung parliament territory again now
A no change poll is a "Kaboom" and a slashing? 🤦♂️
I thought you pretended to know polling and understand how it works, do you even know what the "(-)" after the poll shares means?
With all due respect, I don't think you're a polling expert at all, I just think you have a log of polls that suit your agenda and that you can cherrypick and pull out to your hearts content when it suits your interests to do so.
The Lab lead was 13 before last weeks PMQs the 3 polls since have the lead as 7,8,4 an average of 6.33 so basically halved
The average Lab lead was not 13, that is a lie. One pollster had a 13 and that could have been an outlier.
The 4 is showing no change from previously while the 8 was a reduction in the lead from 9 before last weeks PMQs so basically a margin of error swing of 0.5%
Poor BartholomewRoberts. Poor Dom.
Their plan to get rid of Boris is falling apart all around them at the moment
SKS fans please explain As i forecast SKS peaked at 11.59 am on 19.1.22
Kaboom, Boris now slashes the Labour lead to under 5%!!
Well back into hung parliament territory again now
A no change poll is a "Kaboom" and a slashing? 🤦♂️
I thought you pretended to know polling and understand how it works, do you even know what the "(-)" after the poll shares means?
With all due respect, I don't think you're a polling expert at all, I just think you have a log of polls that suit your agenda and that you can cherrypick and pull out to your hearts content when it suits your interests to do so.
The Lab lead was 13 before last weeks PMQs the 3 polls since have the lead as 7,8,4 an average of 6.33 so basically halved
The average Lab lead was not 13, that is a lie. One pollster had a 13 and that could have been an outlier.
The 4 is showing no change from previously while the 8 was a reduction in the lead from 9 before last weeks PMQs so basically a margin of error swing of 0.5%
2 pools had a 13 lead with fieldwork prior to last weeks PMQs
Never said average lead was 13 it was about 10-11 its now 4-7 this week (halved)
If you have to apply for UC and are a professional who is out of work, wouldn't you just game the system anyway by applying for jobs that you won't get and/or make your applications so obviously duff that you won't get an interview or offered the job in any case? How would the the DWP ever sanction you, if you did this? My guess is that they would leave you to it for quite a while before you became a problem for them.
SKS fans please explain As i forecast SKS peaked at 11.59 am on 19.1.22
Kaboom, Boris now slashes the Labour lead to under 5%!!
Well back into hung parliament territory again now
A no change poll is a "Kaboom" and a slashing? 🤦♂️
I thought you pretended to know polling and understand how it works, do you even know what the "(-)" after the poll shares means?
With all due respect, I don't think you're a polling expert at all, I just think you have a log of polls that suit your agenda and that you can cherrypick and pull out to your hearts content when it suits your interests to do so.
The Lab lead was 13 before last weeks PMQs the 3 polls since have the lead as 7,8,4 an average of 6.33 so basically halved
The average Lab lead was not 13, that is a lie. One pollster had a 13 and that could have been an outlier.
The 4 is showing no change from previously while the 8 was a reduction in the lead from 9 before last weeks PMQs so basically a margin of error swing of 0.5%
Poor BartholomewRoberts. Poor Dom.
Their plan to get rid of Boris is falling apart all around them at the moment
I think you will find it is his mps who are trying to get rid of him
SKS fans please explain As i forecast SKS peaked at 11.59 am on 19.1.22
Kaboom, Boris now slashes the Labour lead to under 5%!!
Well back into hung parliament territory again now
A no change poll is a "Kaboom" and a slashing? 🤦♂️
I thought you pretended to know polling and understand how it works, do you even know what the "(-)" after the poll shares means?
With all due respect, I don't think you're a polling expert at all, I just think you have a log of polls that suit your agenda and that you can cherrypick and pull out to your hearts content when it suits your interests to do so.
2 weeks ago Labour were 10 points ahead or more, now all the polls show Boris has slashed the Labour lead to under 5%.
Indeed on the Kantar poll today it would now be neck and neck after the new boundaries, Labour 284, Tories 273.
The most recent polls by pollster, for the regular pollsters, from Wikipedia:
Redfield & Wilton 7% Lab lead Kantar 4% Lab lead Survation 10% Lab lead Savanta ComRes 8% Lab lead Deltapoll 9% Lab lead YouGov 8% Lab lead Opinium 10% Lab lead
So far from all the polls showing the lead has been slashed to under 5%, the reality is that only Kantar shows that. All other pollsters show higher.
Incidentally Kantar's 4% Lab lead is the joint highest Lab lead they have ever had. So even that one's not slashed.
So your claim that the lead has been slashed to under 5% is 100% false and untrue - the only regular pollster showing the lead under 5% never had the lead higher than it in the first place, and all other pollsters leads are higher.
Never mind the mood music, @AlastairMeeks has 128 mps in the hostile-icy-cool camp 94 friendly 137 neutral or unknown. Even if only 128 vote against that is pretty much as bad as the 117 against T May adjusting for more MPs overall. Assuming Gray is bad for Boris and assuming there are more dissemblers secretly anti Boris than secretly pro, both reasonable assumptions, it doesn’t look good for him.
What are you expecting Gray to say (if it ever arrives!)?
My guess is it will be a lot of bureaucratese saying exactly what we already know, or less.
No 10's latest wheeze seems to be to draw out the process of publication as long as possible so that Ukraine and other events take over in the public consciousness. Then when it's published the couer de cri will be "Why aren't the media focussing on the important issues, they've spent weeks on the Gray report". The longer No 10 drags it out, the more bored with it everyone becomes and the lesser the impact.
SKS fans please explain As i forecast SKS peaked at 11.59 am on 19.1.22
Kaboom, Boris now slashes the Labour lead to under 5%!!
Well back into hung parliament territory again now
A no change poll is a "Kaboom" and a slashing? 🤦♂️
I thought you pretended to know polling and understand how it works, do you even know what the "(-)" after the poll shares means?
With all due respect, I don't think you're a polling expert at all, I just think you have a log of polls that suit your agenda and that you can cherrypick and pull out to your hearts content when it suits your interests to do so.
2 weeks ago Labour were 10 points ahead or more, now all the polls show Boris has slashed the Labour lead to under 5%.
Indeed on the Kantar poll today it would now be neck and neck after the new boundaries, Labour 284, Tories 273.
The most recent polls by pollster, for the regular pollsters, from Wikipedia:
Redfield & Wilton 7% Lab lead Kantar 4% Lab lead Survation 10% Lab lead Savanta ComRes 8% Lab lead Deltapoll 9% Lab lead YouGov 8% Lab lead Opinium 10% Lab lead
So far from all the polls showing the lead has been slashed to under 5%, the reality is that only Kantar shows that. All other pollsters show higher.
Incidentally Kantar's 4% Lab lead is the joint highest Lab lead they have ever had. So even that one's not slashed.
So your claim that the lead has been slashed to under 5% is 100% false and untrue - the only regular pollster showing the lead under 5% never had the lead higher than it in the first place, and all other pollsters leads are higher.
Bit touchy this morning there BartholomewRoberts.
Not one current poll has Labour over 10% ahead. 2 weeks ago most polls had Labour 10% ahead or more.
The latest poll even has the Labour lead under 5%.
Proper loyal Tories unlike you will now hold the line for Boris again
He'll leave only if there's a VONC *and* he loses it.
It's not a given that he'd gracefully depart in that situation.
Grace isn't necessary. Trump didn't depart gracefully, but he did depart.
America had a proper constitution though. If he was a British PM he'd have told Her Majesty that he should stay on pending resolution of the controversy over which was the legitimate parliament, and The Queen would have followed his recommendations to stay out of politics.
Surely even with a written constitution the Queen would not just take the word of the PM. She would take the advice of her wider Privy Council given that the PM is personally implicated in the controversy
Jacob Rees-Mogg obviously says that the outcome of the election is unclear and the Prime Minister Trump should stay on pending investigation of the allegations of vote-rigging in Stockton South and Bolsover, so the Privy Council is at best undecided.
Rees Mogg's comments about the UK now having "effectively a presidential system" so it would be undemocratic to remove the Prime Minister were the most interesting part of the last few days. He didn't say it once but twice in the same evening, so it's a premeditated narrative - the first instance was when he phoned TalkRadio and said he'd like to go on air please!
How does Her Maj react to this? Presumably she is aware.
It is also such a break from JRM's previous image as the defender of obscure constitutional minutae that it makes me wonder what else is going on that gives him such an interest in seeking to keep Johnson in power. Sure he has a nice gig but he's not even a proper member of Cabinet. And the UK has now left the European Union. So what gives?
SKS fans please explain As i forecast SKS peaked at 11.59 am on 19.1.22
Kaboom, Boris now slashes the Labour lead to under 5%!!
Well back into hung parliament territory again now
A no change poll is a "Kaboom" and a slashing? 🤦♂️
I thought you pretended to know polling and understand how it works, do you even know what the "(-)" after the poll shares means?
With all due respect, I don't think you're a polling expert at all, I just think you have a log of polls that suit your agenda and that you can cherrypick and pull out to your hearts content when it suits your interests to do so.
The Lab lead was 13 before last weeks PMQs the 3 polls since have the lead as 7,8,4 an average of 6.33 so basically halved
The average Lab lead was not 13, that is a lie. One pollster had a 13 and that could have been an outlier.
The 4 is showing no change from previously while the 8 was a reduction in the lead from 9 before last weeks PMQs so basically a margin of error swing of 0.5%
2 pools had a 13 lead with fieldwork prior to last weeks PMQs
Never said average lead was 13 it was about 10-11 its now 4-7 this week (halved)
Are these tedious posts a cry to bring Corbyn back or are you just cheer leading for Johnson?
SKS fans please explain As i forecast SKS peaked at 11.59 am on 19.1.22
Kaboom, Boris now slashes the Labour lead to under 5%!!
Well back into hung parliament territory again now
A no change poll is a "Kaboom" and a slashing? 🤦♂️
I thought you pretended to know polling and understand how it works, do you even know what the "(-)" after the poll shares means?
With all due respect, I don't think you're a polling expert at all, I just think you have a log of polls that suit your agenda and that you can cherrypick and pull out to your hearts content when it suits your interests to do so.
2 weeks ago Labour were 10 points ahead or more, now all the polls show Boris has slashed the Labour lead to under 5%.
Indeed on the Kantar poll today it would now be neck and neck after the new boundaries, Labour 284, Tories 273.
The most recent polls by pollster, for the regular pollsters, from Wikipedia:
Redfield & Wilton 7% Lab lead Kantar 4% Lab lead Survation 10% Lab lead Savanta ComRes 8% Lab lead Deltapoll 9% Lab lead YouGov 8% Lab lead Opinium 10% Lab lead
So far from all the polls showing the lead has been slashed to under 5%, the reality is that only Kantar shows that. All other pollsters show higher.
Incidentally Kantar's 4% Lab lead is the joint highest Lab lead they have ever had. So even that one's not slashed.
So your claim that the lead has been slashed to under 5% is 100% false and untrue - the only regular pollster showing the lead under 5% never had the lead higher than it in the first place, and all other pollsters leads are higher.
SKS fans please explain As i forecast SKS peaked at 11.59 am on 19.1.22
Kaboom, Boris now slashes the Labour lead to under 5%!!
Well back into hung parliament territory again now
A no change poll is a "Kaboom" and a slashing? 🤦♂️
I thought you pretended to know polling and understand how it works, do you even know what the "(-)" after the poll shares means?
With all due respect, I don't think you're a polling expert at all, I just think you have a log of polls that suit your agenda and that you can cherrypick and pull out to your hearts content when it suits your interests to do so.
2 weeks ago Labour were 10 points ahead or more, now all the polls show Boris has slashed the Labour lead to under 5%.
Indeed on the Kantar poll today it would now be neck and neck after the new boundaries, Labour 284, Tories 273.
The most recent polls by pollster, for the regular pollsters, from Wikipedia:
Redfield & Wilton 7% Lab lead Kantar 4% Lab lead Survation 10% Lab lead Savanta ComRes 8% Lab lead Deltapoll 9% Lab lead YouGov 8% Lab lead Opinium 10% Lab lead
So far from all the polls showing the lead has been slashed to under 5%, the reality is that only Kantar shows that. All other pollsters show higher.
Incidentally Kantar's 4% Lab lead is the joint highest Lab lead they have ever had. So even that one's not slashed.
So your claim that the lead has been slashed to under 5% is 100% false and untrue - the only regular pollster showing the lead under 5% never had the lead higher than it in the first place, and all other pollsters leads are higher.
Bit touchy this morning there BartholomewRoberts.
Not one current poll has Labour over 10% ahead. 2 weeks ago most polls had Labour 10% ahead or more.
The latest poll even has the Labour lead under 5%.
Proper loyal Tories unlike you will now hold the line for Boris again
< Trumpets sound >
HYUFD, Sandpit and and handful of other loyal defenders salute, ready for the rearguard action. They look intently down from their mountain base, wind in their hair, feeling it may be the moment that things turn their way once more.
Imagine how 155,000 bereaved families feel looking at this.
...
Does anyone know who the braying bearded tory in this clip is? He has pretty much handed my vote to the LDs
J. Gullis, MP for Stoke-on-Trent. I linked to his diatribe against lefty snitches yesterday, and as i said then it's astounding to me what an inexhaustible supply the PCP has of these cnuts.
The PCP is not alone, the labour party has its fair share too.
For me, a key moment in the downfall of our civilisation was on election night in 2017, when Nick Clegg was succeeded by Jared O'Mara. Clegg delivered a stateman like resignation speech. O Mara, who runs nightclubs, then came forward and started ranting in to the microphone, cheered on by a rowdy mob of supporters.
Against this Jonathan Gullis is an intellectual giant, having spent 7 years as a teacher rising to head of year in a secondary school.
Ultimately most people in Parliament are either professional politicians, or have come from very average backgrounds and have not had any major levels of success in their careers. I guess that they are like many people posting on here. They are definetely not the brightest and the best. This is another reason why Keir Starmer is so exceptional.
I appreciate your nuanced posts, and I certainly don't have any time for O'Mara, but I think your last para is not quite right. I knew a great many intelligent MPs, very successful in previous careers, who were seriously interested in getting policy right. The problem was that talent in previous professions doesn't guarantee talent in the rough and tumble world of politics. There were quite a few people from business and lecturing who were frankly not very good at front bench combat. Conversely the front-benchers were focused on combat and had little time to debate policy. The reason I'm a fan of Michael Gove is that he's unusually a combination of active mind and combative politician. Starmer is another, I think, as you imply.
By contrast, take Oliver Letwin. A successful banker, I think, with excellent connections, a Brexiteer with an enquiring mind and a real commitment to honesty (and genuinely nice, which still matters). But as a combatant he was seen as dangerous, with major political clangers, and he was sidelined in favour of people with far less intellectual vigour.
The problem is how to find ways for the bright figures to engage usefully without being tripped up by our savage gotcha culture. The Select Committee system is the best bet, and the simple mechanism of allowing them to introduce legislation, or even be the channel for it, as in the US model, would engage the best minds more productively.
SKS fans please explain As i forecast SKS peaked at 11.59 am on 19.1.22
Kaboom, Boris now slashes the Labour lead to under 5%!!
Well back into hung parliament territory again now
A no change poll is a "Kaboom" and a slashing? 🤦♂️
I thought you pretended to know polling and understand how it works, do you even know what the "(-)" after the poll shares means?
With all due respect, I don't think you're a polling expert at all, I just think you have a log of polls that suit your agenda and that you can cherrypick and pull out to your hearts content when it suits your interests to do so.
2 weeks ago Labour were 10 points ahead or more, now all the polls show Boris has slashed the Labour lead to under 5%.
Indeed on the Kantar poll today it would now be neck and neck after the new boundaries, Labour 284, Tories 273.
The most recent polls by pollster, for the regular pollsters, from Wikipedia:
Redfield & Wilton 7% Lab lead Kantar 4% Lab lead Survation 10% Lab lead Savanta ComRes 8% Lab lead Deltapoll 9% Lab lead YouGov 8% Lab lead Opinium 10% Lab lead
So far from all the polls showing the lead has been slashed to under 5%, the reality is that only Kantar shows that. All other pollsters show higher.
Incidentally Kantar's 4% Lab lead is the joint highest Lab lead they have ever had. So even that one's not slashed.
So your claim that the lead has been slashed to under 5% is 100% false and untrue - the only regular pollster showing the lead under 5% never had the lead higher than it in the first place, and all other pollsters leads are higher.
Bit touchy this morning there BartholomewRoberts.
Not one current poll has Labour over 10% ahead. 2 weeks ago most polls had Labour 10% ahead or more.
The latest poll even has the Labour lead under 5%.
Proper loyal Tories unlike you will now hold the line for Boris again
Lead slashed from 4% to 4% is the claim of a slightly rattled poll analyst though.
Never mind the mood music, @AlastairMeeks has 128 mps in the hostile-icy-cool camp 94 friendly 137 neutral or unknown. Even if only 128 vote against that is pretty much as bad as the 117 against T May adjusting for more MPs overall. Assuming Gray is bad for Boris and assuming there are more dissemblers secretly anti Boris than secretly pro, both reasonable assumptions, it doesn’t look good for him.
What are you expecting Gray to say (if it ever arrives!)?
My guess is it will be a lot of bureaucratese saying exactly what we already know, or less.
No 10's latest wheeze seems to be to draw out the process of publication as long as possible so that Ukraine and other events take over in the public consciousness. Then when it's published the couer de cri will be "Why aren't the media focussing on the important issues, they've spent weeks on the Gray report". The longer No 10 drags it out, the more bored with it everyone becomes and the lesser the impact.
It's a cynical calculation.
The problem I can see for opponents of Boris is that the Gray report has been blown up into something it’s not. It’s not a full blown judicial investigation and it’s not going to declare the PM guilty of anything. At most it will be a factual telling of the events uncovered and will contain some kind of civil service, fairly woolly “recommendation” that more rigorous processes are applied in future etc etc. It won’t make a value judgment on the PMs statements to Parliament (as far as I’m aware) because Parliament is a step removed from the process. It is a separate institution.
So what one is left with is an exercise in connecting the dots. That could be bad for the PM if things line up badly but it does create a spinnable line of “this was not expressly concluded” or somesuch. Which would be a bad faith interpretation given that the ambit and scope of the report is not to make such conclusions, but Boris won’t care about that.
SKS fans please explain As i forecast SKS peaked at 11.59 am on 19.1.22
Kaboom, Boris now slashes the Labour lead to under 5%!!
Well back into hung parliament territory again now
A no change poll is a "Kaboom" and a slashing? 🤦♂️
I thought you pretended to know polling and understand how it works, do you even know what the "(-)" after the poll shares means?
With all due respect, I don't think you're a polling expert at all, I just think you have a log of polls that suit your agenda and that you can cherrypick and pull out to your hearts content when it suits your interests to do so.
The Lab lead was 13 before last weeks PMQs the 3 polls since have the lead as 7,8,4 an average of 6.33 so basically halved
Is that with the same pollster?
No.
2 of the 3 showed a decrease in lead compared to last week the 3rd pollster had no poll since a month ago and reported no change since then
Yes, but as Bartholomew mentions below, there's no halving of leads with the same pollsters.
He'll leave only if there's a VONC *and* he loses it.
It's not a given that he'd gracefully depart in that situation.
Grace isn't necessary. Trump didn't depart gracefully, but he did depart.
America had a proper constitution though. If he was a British PM he'd have told Her Majesty that he should stay on pending resolution of the controversy over which was the legitimate parliament, and The Queen would have followed his recommendations to stay out of politics.
Surely even with a written constitution the Queen would not just take the word of the PM. She would take the advice of her wider Privy Council given that the PM is personally implicated in the controversy
Jacob Rees-Mogg obviously says that the outcome of the election is unclear and the Prime Minister Trump should stay on pending investigation of the allegations of vote-rigging in Stockton South and Bolsover, so the Privy Council is at best undecided.
Rees Mogg's comments about the UK now having "effectively a presidential system" so it would be undemocratic to remove the Prime Minister were the most interesting part of the last few days. He didn't say it once but twice in the same evening, so it's a premeditated narrative - the first instance was when he phoned TalkRadio and said he'd like to go on air please!
How does Her Maj react to this? Presumably she is aware.
It is also such a break from JRM's previous image as the defender of obscure constitutional minutae that it makes me wonder what else is going on that gives him such an interest in seeking to keep Johnson in power. Sure he has a nice gig but he's not even a proper member of Cabinet. And the UK has now left the European Union. So what gives?
Minimising Phil the Greek's funeral, on the basis it's not as if it was the effective First Lady in mourning?
On topic - Johnson is shameless and ruthlessly self-interested. He'll leave only if there's a VONC *and* he loses it. For this to be a likely outcome the Gray Report needs to be unequivocal that he lied to Parliament when claiming he had no prior knowledge of rule breaking events. I'd be surprised if it is. So it's odds against IMO that he'll be going anytime soon. Bets I recommend are (i) Him still to be PM on 1st July at 2.1 and (ii) Starmer Next PM at 11.
Let's be blunt, if it was Starmer facing exactly the same position, you - and probably around 80%+ of those criticising BJ for what he did - would be coming up with reasons as to why everyone was over-reacting to what Starmer did and it was all a Tory plot. You are not concerned about the actions, your main concern is which political party he represents.
As to the bets, I would take the first one and probably put a small nibble on the second but without much confidence.
Why do you assume everyone is like you? It's most odd.
I'm very happy to criticise "my side" if I think their actions are wrong. Anyone who pays attention to my posts - and I know you do - would realise this. Which just shows you're actually quite malicious behind the mask of reasonableness you put on.
Nope, sorry, you are an egregious example of moral sleaze trying to insinuate by sleight of hand that you are in the top moral 20%. Stop it.
Says the Peppa Pig. Like to give an example of both the moral sleaze bit and where I claim to be in the top moral 20% but or you going to talk out of your arse as usual?
You claim that 80%+ are morally fungible but that you yourself are not but are happy to criticise "my side". Can you genuinely not see the implicit claim there? Genuinely?
The moral sleaze consists in trying to neutralise moral criticism of your side by insisting that 80%+ of it can be dismissed as partisan. Again, this is not difficult stuff.
Trump and Johnson, what a package. People with genuine moral agency are able to stand aside from "their side" and assess these people on their merits.
"Personal view is that BJ obviously didn't follow his own rules, almost certainly lied and took the piss. However, he has not been taking brown envelopes full of cash (as far as we know) I'm much more concerned that whoever is running the country gets the big calls right and I think BJ has done that. I'd have the same view if it was Starmer."
Putting in a word for that lord's great exhibition plan, in return for having his expensive decoration paid for, comes pretty close. And that's before you start looking at where the PPE contracts went...
That is true re the wallpaper and the PPE contracts. TBJH, he should have resigned for the simple fact of considering Dido Harding as the next NHS Head.
But on the drinks things, I truly find it hard to get that outraged about it. As I said, I know a fair few people round this neck of the woods who are screeching about BJ having to go because of this and yet who broke the rules themselves.
Maybe they thought that some of the rules were petty and stupid?
But that can't be the view of the person who decided to introduce them, leaving only much worse character judgements as available explanations.
I am sure they did think the rules - when it applied to their circumstances - were petty and stupid. And that is ok. But then don't get on your high horse and proclaim yourself as the moral guardian when someone else does it.
Totally agree it's a bad look for the PM and he was wrong. However, in reference to an earlier point, I would much rather have BJ as a PM than a Labour opposition leader who thinks it was right for a nurse to refuse a grieving husband access to his dying wife for the "common good"
The US are really not interested in giving Putin a victory to justify stepping back from the brink. No doubt some of our European friends will regard this as further warmongering by them.
I have immense respect for Breyer as a man & a jurist, but I worry this decision reeks of partisanship. If the Court becomes just another instrument of partisan politics, then we’re truly lost. What about waiting until a 2nd Trump term to prove this isn’t about Team R & Team D? https://twitter.com/IChotiner/status/1486395614455754752
Christ, I was joking yesterday when I suggested someone would try tha line.
Sunak to require jobseekers to look outside their chosen field after just 1 month rather than the current three. Starmer Labour will oppose.
A clear further sign a Sunak premiership would now be a move more back to austerity and to Boris' economic right. Boris by contrast has described himself as a Brexity Heseltine.
That may not go down well in the redwall seats that voted for Brown and Ed Miliband before voting for Boris in 2019. Sunak would hope it would have more appeal in the seats Cameron won in 2015 that are now Labour or LD. Only problem for Sunak almost all of them voted Remain like Cameron and he voted for Brexit like Boris
Incredibly, I find myself for once in agreement with you.
I suspect your real fear is Rishi takes over and the whole narrative changes with the conservatives having a real chance in 24
I don't know. If that 'is' my real fear then it lies somewhere deep in my subconscious.
You may be right but I'm really, really, not sure about Rishi Sunak. I don't think a multimillionaire former hedge fund manager (banker) is going to play out well especially given the fiscal troubles we're sailing into.
Boris remains my biggest fear electorally. I think he's a liability for the tories but he is, regrettably, the only tory with the X factor and that's dangerous for Labour.
Boris isn't a fear any longer. Even if Partygate died down there are a lot of reasons why the Tories will do badly with him in charge next time round.
Remember what Boris promised you in 2019 - where is it? Will do wonders for Labour in 2023/4.
I agree but I'm unnerved by the fact that someone like my good friend 'still' believes in him.
It's performances like yesterday at PMQ's which scare me as a leftie. I know it's all flannel but if he's like that in an election campaign I can see the tabloids getting roused right behind him again ...
The Tories have twigged, much like the Republicans in the States, that they can build a coalition between clever, selfish people who only care about lower taxes and sod everyone else and the state of their country's infrastructure, services, etc, etc, etc and stupid selfish people who believe the hogwash the first group pumps out and can be cajoled into voting against the best interests of themselves and their families.
This coalition is just, just enough, a lot of the time, to scrape into power. Or get Brexit.
Oh give over. "My political opponents are all either evil or stupid". The only people who truly believe that are those living in a bubble.
Just my opinion, based on my observations. Obviously built on my prejudices and worldview. I don't expect many on here will agree.
Big difference between evil and selfish.
You're right, entirely built on prejudices.
People have good reasons for voting as they do. You'd do well to remember almost all of your opponents are neither evil nor selfish, they simply have different views to you.
I agree most people aren’t evil. I do, however, think selfishness is a defining characteristic of humanity. It is prevalent in all of us, to a greater or lesser extent. It has driven human progress. It has brought war, conquest, genocide. It is wrecking the environment. Humanity is intrinsically selfish.
It saddens me that some of our species can, now we are fortunately civilised enough in most cases to not need to kill each other for food and shelter, still can be motivated by selfishness and greed.
It saddens me that once great political parties here and in the US, that were once moral and intellectual titans, have to pander to the lowest common denominator, to the worst of us, to scrape into power because so many of their economic policies clearly, after decades of being implemented, don”t work for the majority of people.
But they don't. The parties here don't do that and people on the centre-right have the views they do not because of selfishness but because they believe its the best thing to do.
I believe in low taxes not out of any selfish desire, but because I believe hard working people are better able to provide for themselves and their families, and to elevate their lives and livelihoods if taxes are low.
I believe in not running up major deficits, over the economic cycle, not because of any selfish desire but because I believe burdening our children and [in my case hypothetical future] grandchildren is the wrong thing to do.
I believe in a small state, not because of any selfish desire, but because I believe the state is inefficient and less able to determine what is best for people than people can choose for themselves.
Finally I think high taxes on earned incomes don't burden the wealthy who are living off unearned or inherited money. They burden those working for a living. I have long argued against and view as a disgrace the real 70% tax rate that those on UC have to pay while working and have long railed against that, not because it affects me, but because it traps people in poverty and squanders human potential and I view that as unethical and wrong.
You may not like my politics, but is any of that "selfish"?
You're perfectly welcome to your beliefs, to your politics. We just disagree. I think yours are fundamentally, when everything is stripped away, all the theories, the Laffer curve, trickle down, all that stuff you extol endlessly, are failing most people most of the time. I don't see how you could look at the world around you and think anything else. Therefore the only conclusion I can logically come to is that it is more important to you to have more of your money for yourself, which to my world view is selfish.
You think that lets rational actors decide how best to live their lives. I think that approach is a false economy because it leads to a poorer world for all of us. I don't see how you can look at the poor fabric of the UK and US - massively rich countries supposedly - and think anything else.
People aren't rational actors. We don't start from a level playing field. The great seduction of right wing though is that if you work hard enough you will succeed. I don't see how you can look across the pond, and the UK now, and think that is correct.
You're very good at picking up pieces of people's comments and spinning away into diversions, cul-de-sacs. I don't want to debate economic theory, you have proved time and time again to be terrier like and tenacious and I just don't have the time, energy or inclination to go through this.
I stand by my original point, from my perspective the Tories and Republicans have built a coalition of the selfish. Over many decades, with much think tanking and building of seductive theories that are probably no more or less relevant or accurate than Marxism is from the opposite side of the spectrum.
Somebody posted a "six stages of a project" thing the other day and said we have reached the "Disillusionment" stage.
That seems about right to me. I am looking forward to Stage 3 next - "Panic"
DK Brown's "Stages of a Project"
- Enthusiasm - Disillusionment - Panic - The Search for the Guilty - The punishment of the Innocent - Praise and Honour for the Non-Participants
I suspect we will see 3-5 in a single hour as the Gray report comes out.
Boris's panicking will result in anyone no matter how junior being punished as he tries to protect himself.
It sounds like the watering down of the Gray report is underway. I have little expectation of it having any effect except to identity the sheep to be culled to save the Big Dog.
If it is watered down it is the civil service unions work trying to protect their staff from being named, and not no10
It is suggested that it will be very bad for the civil servants in no 10 and Whitehall
I am sure it will be bad for them, but I am also sure that any political wiggleroom will be exploited to the maximum. If the wiggleroom can be increased by the correct sort of watering down then...
As the original supplier of the quoted stages of a project - it is a a favourite of mine....
The context was the HMS Captain saga. Where a ship was built against the advice of Chief Constructor (chief naval architect) of the Royal Navy. The ship rolled over and sank on the maiden voyage, killing nearly everyone on board. Including the designer....
- The Chief Constructor who had warned against the design was forced to resign. - His replacement was very nearly the naval architect for the shipyard that had mis-built the ship - the design was bad, but made worse by excess weight in construction...
On the junior people involved - everyone is trying to hide behind them.
The senior civil servants who are involved are trying to claim that it is really unfair on Doris the receptionist to bin her. Because if Doris goes, then Sir Reginald Fuckwit who was next in the conga line will get it in the neck.
The politicians will be doing the same with the junior SPADs....
Apologies if this has been pointed out. But in my sector, education, the timescale from application to closing date, to shortlist, interview, second interview, references, enhanced DBS to start date is longer than four weeks. Far longer last time I tried. I assume for some others it may be too. Edit. I notice it has.
When I was fresh out of university I applied for job A in the summer, job B in the early autumn and job C a few weeks later. (And lots of other jobs too, of course)
I had my first interview for job A before I applied for job C. Not sure exactly when I had the interviews for jobs B and C, but I was offered job B on my first day of job C, and had my second interview for job A during my second week at job C, which was my last week in that job, before starting job B the next week.
Was told informally at second interview for job A that I would be offered the job, but they had to have a meeting first to decide how much to offer me in pay before sending the formal offer.
I ended up working at job B for just over four months, while waiting for security clearance to start job A, which organisation I stayed at for more than a decade.
Jobs B and C only gave me the time of day because I was a fresh graduate, and so they thought they could have a look at me in a low level role before moving me to something better internally. They wouldn't even consider me these days for those jobs now, because my CV would make it obvious I'd be moving on asap, and it would be a waste of their time.
BUT - I really don't think this change will be applied to harass people like me. It certainly wasn't last time I claimed JSA, even though I'd been out of work with depression for more than a year.
It will be used to harass people lower down the economic ladder. And that's why politically it is a plus for HMG.
It isn't given many of them live in the redwall
Haven't we been through this before?
The new Tory voters in these northern seats will typically be the people with jobs who have recently bought new-build houses, who drive everywhere - if they're not old enough to be receiving their pension.
They won't be affected by this change. They will mostly applaud it.
Imagine how 155,000 bereaved families feel looking at this.
...
Does anyone know who the braying bearded tory in this clip is? He has pretty much handed my vote to the LDs
J. Gullis, MP for Stoke-on-Trent. I linked to his diatribe against lefty snitches yesterday, and as i said then it's astounding to me what an inexhaustible supply the PCP has of these cnuts.
The PCP is not alone, the labour party has its fair share too.
For me, a key moment in the downfall of our civilisation was on election night in 2017, when Nick Clegg was succeeded by Jared O'Mara. Clegg delivered a stateman like resignation speech. O Mara, who runs nightclubs, then came forward and started ranting in to the microphone, cheered on by a rowdy mob of supporters.
Against this Jonathan Gullis is an intellectual giant, having spent 7 years as a teacher rising to head of year in a secondary school.
Ultimately most people in Parliament are either professional politicians, or have come from very average backgrounds and have not had any major levels of success in their careers. I guess that they are like many people posting on here. They are definetely not the brightest and the best. This is another reason why Keir Starmer is so exceptional.
I appreciate your nuanced posts, and I certainly don't have any time for O'Mara, but I think your last para is not quite right. I knew a great many intelligent MPs, very successful in previous careers, who were seriously interested in getting policy right. The problem was that talent in previous professions doesn't guarantee talent in the rough and tumble world of politics. There were quite a few people from business and lecturing who were frankly not very good at front bench combat. Conversely the front-benchers were focused on combat and had little time to debate policy. The reason I'm a fan of Michael Gove is that he's unusually a combination of active mind and combative politician. Starmer is another, I think, as you imply.
By contrast, take Oliver Letwin. A successful banker, I think, with excellent connections, a Brexiteer with an enquiring mind and a real commitment to honesty (and genuinely nice, which still matters). But as a combatant he was seen as dangerous, with major political clangers, and he was sidelined in favour of people with far less intellectual vigour.
The problem is how to find ways for the bright figures to engage usefully without being tripped up by our savage gotcha culture. The Select Committee system is the best bet, and the simple mechanism of allowing them to introduce legislation, or even be the channel for it, as in the US model, would engage the best minds more productively.
What would you think of a requirement for Cabinet ministers to have spent at least two years on that departments relevant select committee or as a junior minister before being eligible to represent that department in Cabinet?
This would reduce random cabinet reshuffles by design and hopefully also lead to MPs gaining deeper understanding and knowledge of a specific area rather than pretending to know everything about everything.
SKS fans please explain As i forecast SKS peaked at 11.59 am on 19.1.22
Kaboom, Boris now slashes the Labour lead to under 5%!!
Well back into hung parliament territory again now
A no change poll is a "Kaboom" and a slashing? 🤦♂️
I thought you pretended to know polling and understand how it works, do you even know what the "(-)" after the poll shares means?
With all due respect, I don't think you're a polling expert at all, I just think you have a log of polls that suit your agenda and that you can cherrypick and pull out to your hearts content when it suits your interests to do so.
The Lab lead was 13 before last weeks PMQs the 3 polls since have the lead as 7,8,4 an average of 6.33 so basically halved
Is that with the same pollster?
No.
2 of the 3 showed a decrease in lead compared to last week the 3rd pollster had no poll since a month ago and reported no change since then
Yes, but as Bartholomew mentions below, there's no halving of leads with the same pollsters.
SKS fans please explain As i forecast SKS peaked at 11.59 am on 19.1.22
Kaboom, Boris now slashes the Labour lead to under 5%!!
Well back into hung parliament territory again now
A no change poll is a "Kaboom" and a slashing? 🤦♂️
I thought you pretended to know polling and understand how it works, do you even know what the "(-)" after the poll shares means?
With all due respect, I don't think you're a polling expert at all, I just think you have a log of polls that suit your agenda and that you can cherrypick and pull out to your hearts content when it suits your interests to do so.
2 weeks ago Labour were 10 points ahead or more, now all the polls show Boris has slashed the Labour lead to under 5%.
Indeed on the Kantar poll today it would now be neck and neck after the new boundaries, Labour 284, Tories 273.
The most recent polls by pollster, for the regular pollsters, from Wikipedia:
Redfield & Wilton 7% Lab lead Kantar 4% Lab lead Survation 10% Lab lead Savanta ComRes 8% Lab lead Deltapoll 9% Lab lead YouGov 8% Lab lead Opinium 10% Lab lead
So far from all the polls showing the lead has been slashed to under 5%, the reality is that only Kantar shows that. All other pollsters show higher.
Incidentally Kantar's 4% Lab lead is the joint highest Lab lead they have ever had. So even that one's not slashed.
So your claim that the lead has been slashed to under 5% is 100% false and untrue - the only regular pollster showing the lead under 5% never had the lead higher than it in the first place, and all other pollsters leads are higher.
Bit touchy this morning there BartholomewRoberts.
Not one current poll has Labour over 10% ahead. 2 weeks ago most polls had Labour 10% ahead or more.
The latest poll even has the Labour lead under 5%.
Proper loyal Tories unlike you will now hold the line for Boris again
Not touchy, I just won't buy the bullshit you're selling. You have zero integrity it seems, and I do. Incidentally the Parliamentary Conservative Party won't believe your bullshit either and will be able to read the polling figures themselves.
Only three pollsters this week have shown a fall in the Labour lead: R&W, Survation and YouGov.
Survation and YouGov have both seen the Labour lead reduce by only 1, which is Margin of Error/Rounding Error territory. Kantar showed literally 0 change.
R&W is the outlier showing a 6% reduction of the Labour lead, but their last poll looks like an outlier and the current one looks like a reversion to mean. They've done three polls this month which have shown a 4%, 13% and now 7% lead so the 13% looks very much like an outlier.
Have some integrity with the polls and then people might believe you when you actually have a good point. Simply lie to us about slashed leads with blatant lies and untruths and people can call it out.
Imagine how 155,000 bereaved families feel looking at this.
...
Does anyone know who the braying bearded tory in this clip is? He has pretty much handed my vote to the LDs
J. Gullis, MP for Stoke-on-Trent. I linked to his diatribe against lefty snitches yesterday, and as i said then it's astounding to me what an inexhaustible supply the PCP has of these cnuts.
The PCP is not alone, the labour party has its fair share too.
For me, a key moment in the downfall of our civilisation was on election night in 2017, when Nick Clegg was succeeded by Jared O'Mara. Clegg delivered a stateman like resignation speech. O Mara, who runs nightclubs, then came forward and started ranting in to the microphone, cheered on by a rowdy mob of supporters.
Against this Jonathan Gullis is an intellectual giant, having spent 7 years as a teacher rising to head of year in a secondary school.
Ultimately most people in Parliament are either professional politicians, or have come from very average backgrounds and have not had any major levels of success in their careers. I guess that they are like many people posting on here. They are definetely not the brightest and the best. This is another reason why Keir Starmer is so exceptional.
I appreciate your nuanced posts, and I certainly don't have any time for O'Mara, but I think your last para is not quite right. I knew a great many intelligent MPs, very successful in previous careers, who were seriously interested in getting policy right. The problem was that talent in previous professions doesn't guarantee talent in the rough and tumble world of politics. There were quite a few people from business and lecturing who were frankly not very good at front bench combat. Conversely the front-benchers were focused on combat and had little time to debate policy. The reason I'm a fan of Michael Gove is that he's unusually a combination of active mind and combative politician. Starmer is another, I think, as you imply.
By contrast, take Oliver Letwin. A successful banker, I think, with excellent connections, a Brexiteer with an enquiring mind and a real commitment to honesty (and genuinely nice, which still matters). But as a combatant he was seen as dangerous, with major political clangers, and he was sidelined in favour of people with far less intellectual vigour.
The problem is how to find ways for the bright figures to engage usefully without being tripped up by our savage gotcha culture. The Select Committee system is the best bet, and the simple mechanism of allowing them to introduce legislation, or even be the channel for it, as in the US model, would engage the best minds more productively.
Absolutely.
People (and especially perhaps who knows chippy people on PB) misunderestimate the ability, hard work, sacrifice and dedication that is required to become an MP.
I can genuinely say that there is not one PB-er who wouldn't be destroyed in debate on just about any subject in politics. To become an MP (and don't you know it, Nick) you will have cut your teeth on selection process after debate after argument after discussion.
Never mind the mood music, @AlastairMeeks has 128 mps in the hostile-icy-cool camp 94 friendly 137 neutral or unknown. Even if only 128 vote against that is pretty much as bad as the 117 against T May adjusting for more MPs overall. Assuming Gray is bad for Boris and assuming there are more dissemblers secretly anti Boris than secretly pro, both reasonable assumptions, it doesn’t look good for him.
What are you expecting Gray to say (if it ever arrives!)?
My guess is it will be a lot of bureaucratese saying exactly what we already know, or less.
No 10's latest wheeze seems to be to draw out the process of publication as long as possible so that Ukraine and other events take over in the public consciousness. Then when it's published the couer de cri will be "Why aren't the media focussing on the important issues, they've spent weeks on the Gray report". The longer No 10 drags it out, the more bored with it everyone becomes and the lesser the impact.
It's a cynical calculation.
The problem I can see for opponents of Boris is that the Gray report has been blown up into something it’s not. It’s not a full blown judicial investigation and it’s not going to declare the PM guilty of anything. At most it will be a factual telling of the events uncovered and will contain some kind of civil service, fairly woolly “recommendation” that more rigorous processes are applied in future etc etc. It won’t make a value judgment on the PMs statements to Parliament (as far as I’m aware) because Parliament is a step removed from the process. It is a separate institution.
So what one is left with is an exercise in connecting the dots. That could be bad for the PM if things line up badly but it does create a spinnable line of “this was not expressly concluded” or somesuch. Which would be a bad faith interpretation given that the ambit and scope of the report is not to make such conclusions, but Boris won’t care about that.
Cant you just tell us what happened? I presume no.12 is in sight of no.10.
I have immense respect for Breyer as a man & a jurist, but I worry this decision reeks of partisanship. If the Court becomes just another instrument of partisan politics, then we’re truly lost. What about waiting until a 2nd Trump term to prove this isn’t about Team R & Team D? https://twitter.com/IChotiner/status/1486395614455754752
Christ, I was joking yesterday when I suggested someone would try tha line.
Never mind the mood music, @AlastairMeeks has 128 mps in the hostile-icy-cool camp 94 friendly 137 neutral or unknown. Even if only 128 vote against that is pretty much as bad as the 117 against T May adjusting for more MPs overall. Assuming Gray is bad for Boris and assuming there are more dissemblers secretly anti Boris than secretly pro, both reasonable assumptions, it doesn’t look good for him.
Don't share your assessment but I do like to see it. Glad you remain strong.
I have immense respect for Breyer as a man & a jurist, but I worry this decision reeks of partisanship. If the Court becomes just another instrument of partisan politics, then we’re truly lost. What about waiting until a 2nd Trump term to prove this isn’t about Team R & Team D? https://twitter.com/IChotiner/status/1486395614455754752
On topic - Johnson is shameless and ruthlessly self-interested. He'll leave only if there's a VONC *and* he loses it. For this to be a likely outcome the Gray Report needs to be unequivocal that he lied to Parliament when claiming he had no prior knowledge of rule breaking events. I'd be surprised if it is. So it's odds against IMO that he'll be going anytime soon. Bets I recommend are (i) Him still to be PM on 1st July at 2.1 and (ii) Starmer Next PM at 11.
Let's be blunt, if it was Starmer facing exactly the same position, you - and probably around 80%+ of those criticising BJ for what he did - would be coming up with reasons as to why everyone was over-reacting to what Starmer did and it was all a Tory plot. You are not concerned about the actions, your main concern is which political party he represents.
As to the bets, I would take the first one and probably put a small nibble on the second but without much confidence.
Why do you assume everyone is like you? It's most odd.
I'm very happy to criticise "my side" if I think their actions are wrong. Anyone who pays attention to my posts - and I know you do - would realise this. Which just shows you're actually quite malicious behind the mask of reasonableness you put on.
Nope, sorry, you are an egregious example of moral sleaze trying to insinuate by sleight of hand that you are in the top moral 20%. Stop it.
Says the Peppa Pig. Like to give an example of both the moral sleaze bit and where I claim to be in the top moral 20% but or you going to talk out of your arse as usual?
You claim that 80%+ are morally fungible but that you yourself are not but are happy to criticise "my side". Can you genuinely not see the implicit claim there? Genuinely?
The moral sleaze consists in trying to neutralise moral criticism of your side by insisting that 80%+ of it can be dismissed as partisan. Again, this is not difficult stuff.
Trump and Johnson, what a package. People with genuine moral agency are able to stand aside from "their side" and assess these people on their merits.
"Personal view is that BJ obviously didn't follow his own rules, almost certainly lied and took the piss. However, he has not been taking brown envelopes full of cash (as far as we know) I'm much more concerned that whoever is running the country gets the big calls right and I think BJ has done that. I'd have the same view if it was Starmer."
Putting in a word for that lord's great exhibition plan, in return for having his expensive decoration paid for, comes pretty close. And that's before you start looking at where the PPE contracts went...
That is true re the wallpaper and the PPE contracts. TBJH, he should have resigned for the simple fact of considering Dido Harding as the next NHS Head.
But on the drinks things, I truly find it hard to get that outraged about it. As I said, I know a fair few people round this neck of the woods who are screeching about BJ having to go because of this and yet who broke the rules themselves.
Luckily not everyone has your lowlife Tory standards.
SKS fans please explain As i forecast SKS peaked at 11.59 am on 19.1.22
Kaboom, Boris now slashes the Labour lead to under 5%!!
Well back into hung parliament territory again now
A no change poll is a "Kaboom" and a slashing? 🤦♂️
I thought you pretended to know polling and understand how it works, do you even know what the "(-)" after the poll shares means?
With all due respect, I don't think you're a polling expert at all, I just think you have a log of polls that suit your agenda and that you can cherrypick and pull out to your hearts content when it suits your interests to do so.
The Lab lead was 13 before last weeks PMQs the 3 polls since have the lead as 7,8,4 an average of 6.33 so basically halved
Is that with the same pollster?
No.
2 of the 3 showed a decrease in lead compared to last week the 3rd pollster had no poll since a month ago and reported no change since then
Yes, but as Bartholomew mentions below, there's no halving of leads with the same pollsters.
R&W was 13 last week and 7 this week
And 4 two weeks ago, and 3 three weeks ago.
The 13 is an outlier. It wasn't substantiated by either any other regular pollsters or by the same pollster.
A pollster polling every week will get outliers sometimes. All pollsters should and if they don't that should be a red flag that they're fiddling their data to avoid them.
Never mind the mood music, @AlastairMeeks has 128 mps in the hostile-icy-cool camp 94 friendly 137 neutral or unknown. Even if only 128 vote against that is pretty much as bad as the 117 against T May adjusting for more MPs overall. Assuming Gray is bad for Boris and assuming there are more dissemblers secretly anti Boris than secretly pro, both reasonable assumptions, it doesn’t look good for him.
What are you expecting Gray to say (if it ever arrives!)?
My guess is it will be a lot of bureaucratese saying exactly what we already know, or less.
Yes. I don't attach much importance to its content, it is more that its publication is a starting gun. I keep being reminded of waiting for the Blix report which similarly was the green light for the US to invade, irrespective of what it actually said.
Tho other key issue is whether it supports a formal claim that Johnson misled the house
Somebody posted a "six stages of a project" thing the other day and said we have reached the "Disillusionment" stage.
That seems about right to me. I am looking forward to Stage 3 next - "Panic"
DK Brown's "Stages of a Project"
- Enthusiasm - Disillusionment - Panic - The Search for the Guilty - The punishment of the Innocent - Praise and Honour for the Non-Participants
I suspect we will see 3-5 in a single hour as the Gray report comes out.
Boris's panicking will result in anyone no matter how junior being punished as he tries to protect himself.
It sounds like the watering down of the Gray report is underway. I have little expectation of it having any effect except to identity the sheep to be culled to save the Big Dog.
I am laying off a little on Sunak this morning.
Time and tide and all that. His moment may well be passing.
Personally, I have never rated him. He was an anonymous MP until elevated to Chancellor after which all he has done is to spend money at levels that would make a Corbynite blanche!
Exactly he has don enothing of note, however they are easy pleased on here.
Never mind the mood music, @AlastairMeeks has 128 mps in the hostile-icy-cool camp 94 friendly 137 neutral or unknown. Even if only 128 vote against that is pretty much as bad as the 117 against T May adjusting for more MPs overall. Assuming Gray is bad for Boris and assuming there are more dissemblers secretly anti Boris than secretly pro, both reasonable assumptions, it doesn’t look good for him.
What are you expecting Gray to say (if it ever arrives!)?
My guess is it will be a lot of bureaucratese saying exactly what we already know, or less.
No 10's latest wheeze seems to be to draw out the process of publication as long as possible so that Ukraine and other events take over in the public consciousness. Then when it's published the couer de cri will be "Why aren't the media focussing on the important issues, they've spent weeks on the Gray report". The longer No 10 drags it out, the more bored with it everyone becomes and the lesser the impact.
It's a cynical calculation.
Sounds like an addendum to the old legal argument
If the facts aren't on your side argue the law If the law isn't in your side argue the facts If neither are on your side bang the table...or hope for war in Ukraine.
"Disney says it is "consulting with members of the dwarfism community" on the film "to avoid reinforcing stereotypes from the original animated film"."
Given Snow White is a Latina, maybe we can change the title to "Snow Latinx and the seven vertically challenged humanoids".
And I see they have Israeli actress Gal Gadot as the Evil Queen. Surely Anti-Semitism in action and reinforcing racial stereotypes as Jewish people out to dominate the world?
SKS fans please explain As i forecast SKS peaked at 11.59 am on 19.1.22
Kaboom, Boris now slashes the Labour lead to under 5%!!
Well back into hung parliament territory again now
A no change poll is a "Kaboom" and a slashing? 🤦♂️
I thought you pretended to know polling and understand how it works, do you even know what the "(-)" after the poll shares means?
With all due respect, I don't think you're a polling expert at all, I just think you have a log of polls that suit your agenda and that you can cherrypick and pull out to your hearts content when it suits your interests to do so.
The Lab lead was 13 before last weeks PMQs the 3 polls since have the lead as 7,8,4 an average of 6.33 so basically halved
Is that with the same pollster?
No.
2 of the 3 showed a decrease in lead compared to last week the 3rd pollster had no poll since a month ago and reported no change since then
Yes, but as Bartholomew mentions below, there's no halving of leads with the same pollsters.
R&W was 13 last week and 7 this week
And 4 two weeks ago, and 3 three weeks ago.
The 13 is an outlier. It wasn't substantiated by either any other regular pollsters or by the same pollster.
A pollster polling every week will get outliers sometimes. All pollsters should and if they don't that should be a red flag that they're fiddling their data to avoid them.
Never mind the mood music, @AlastairMeeks has 128 mps in the hostile-icy-cool camp 94 friendly 137 neutral or unknown. Even if only 128 vote against that is pretty much as bad as the 117 against T May adjusting for more MPs overall. Assuming Gray is bad for Boris and assuming there are more dissemblers secretly anti Boris than secretly pro, both reasonable assumptions, it doesn’t look good for him.
Don't share your assessment but I do like to see it. Glad you remain strong.
I have immense respect for Breyer as a man & a jurist, but I worry this decision reeks of partisanship. If the Court becomes just another instrument of partisan politics, then we’re truly lost. What about waiting until a 2nd Trump term to prove this isn’t about Team R & Team D? https://twitter.com/IChotiner/status/1486395614455754752
Beyond parody!
Surely it is parody? Mind you, I did have to check it was not Mitch McConnell.
I have immense respect for Breyer as a man & a jurist, but I worry this decision reeks of partisanship. If the Court becomes just another instrument of partisan politics, then we’re truly lost. What about waiting until a 2nd Trump term to prove this isn’t about Team R & Team D? https://twitter.com/IChotiner/status/1486395614455754752
Christ, I was joking yesterday when I suggested someone would try that line.
The tweet is a joke too, though it's slightly surprising the number who take it as a straight argument.
On topic - Johnson is shameless and ruthlessly self-interested. He'll leave only if there's a VONC *and* he loses it. For this to be a likely outcome the Gray Report needs to be unequivocal that he lied to Parliament when claiming he had no prior knowledge of rule breaking events. I'd be surprised if it is. So it's odds against IMO that he'll be going anytime soon. Bets I recommend are (i) Him still to be PM on 1st July at 2.1 and (ii) Starmer Next PM at 11.
Let's be blunt, if it was Starmer facing exactly the same position, you - and probably around 80%+ of those criticising BJ for what he did - would be coming up with reasons as to why everyone was over-reacting to what Starmer did and it was all a Tory plot. You are not concerned about the actions, your main concern is which political party he represents.
As to the bets, I would take the first one and probably put a small nibble on the second but without much confidence.
Why do you assume everyone is like you? It's most odd.
I'm very happy to criticise "my side" if I think their actions are wrong. Anyone who pays attention to my posts - and I know you do - would realise this. Which just shows you're actually quite malicious behind the mask of reasonableness you put on.
Nope, sorry, you are an egregious example of moral sleaze trying to insinuate by sleight of hand that you are in the top moral 20%. Stop it.
Says the Peppa Pig. Like to give an example of both the moral sleaze bit and where I claim to be in the top moral 20% but or you going to talk out of your arse as usual?
You claim that 80%+ are morally fungible but that you yourself are not but are happy to criticise "my side". Can you genuinely not see the implicit claim there? Genuinely?
The moral sleaze consists in trying to neutralise moral criticism of your side by insisting that 80%+ of it can be dismissed as partisan. Again, this is not difficult stuff.
Trump and Johnson, what a package. People with genuine moral agency are able to stand aside from "their side" and assess these people on their merits.
"Personal view is that BJ obviously didn't follow his own rules, almost certainly lied and took the piss. However, he has not been taking brown envelopes full of cash (as far as we know) I'm much more concerned that whoever is running the country gets the big calls right and I think BJ has done that. I'd have the same view if it was Starmer."
Putting in a word for that lord's great exhibition plan, in return for having his expensive decoration paid for, comes pretty close. And that's before you start looking at where the PPE contracts went...
That is true re the wallpaper and the PPE contracts. TBJH, he should have resigned for the simple fact of considering Dido Harding as the next NHS Head.
But on the drinks things, I truly find it hard to get that outraged about it. As I said, I know a fair few people round this neck of the woods who are screeching about BJ having to go because of this and yet who broke the rules themselves.
Luckily not everyone has your lowlife Tory standards.
I know, it would be a much better world if everyone had your standards Malcolm. What a great place the world would be.
"Disney says it is "consulting with members of the dwarfism community" on the film "to avoid reinforcing stereotypes from the original animated film"."
Given Snow White is a Latina, maybe we can change the title to "Snow Latinx and the seven vertically challenged humanoids".
And I see they have Israeli actress Gal Gadot as the Evil Queen. Surely Anti-Semitism in action and reinforcing racial stereotypes as Jewish people out to dominate the world?
I don't understand why they are remaking the film. Could they just... not? if they need to keep the licence or something surely there is another way than aiming for a big budget hit.
Imagine how 155,000 bereaved families feel looking at this.
...
Does anyone know who the braying bearded tory in this clip is? He has pretty much handed my vote to the LDs
J. Gullis, MP for Stoke-on-Trent. I linked to his diatribe against lefty snitches yesterday, and as i said then it's astounding to me what an inexhaustible supply the PCP has of these cnuts.
The PCP is not alone, the labour party has its fair share too.
For me, a key moment in the downfall of our civilisation was on election night in 2017, when Nick Clegg was succeeded by Jared O'Mara. Clegg delivered a stateman like resignation speech. O Mara, who runs nightclubs, then came forward and started ranting in to the microphone, cheered on by a rowdy mob of supporters.
Against this Jonathan Gullis is an intellectual giant, having spent 7 years as a teacher rising to head of year in a secondary school.
Ultimately most people in Parliament are either professional politicians, or have come from very average backgrounds and have not had any major levels of success in their careers. I guess that they are like many people posting on here. They are definetely not the brightest and the best. This is another reason why Keir Starmer is so exceptional.
I appreciate your nuanced posts, and I certainly don't have any time for O'Mara, but I think your last para is not quite right. I knew a great many intelligent MPs, very successful in previous careers, who were seriously interested in getting policy right. The problem was that talent in previous professions doesn't guarantee talent in the rough and tumble world of politics. There were quite a few people from business and lecturing who were frankly not very good at front bench combat. Conversely the front-benchers were focused on combat and had little time to debate policy. The reason I'm a fan of Michael Gove is that he's unusually a combination of active mind and combative politician. Starmer is another, I think, as you imply.
By contrast, take Oliver Letwin. A successful banker, I think, with excellent connections, a Brexiteer with an enquiring mind and a real commitment to honesty (and genuinely nice, which still matters). But as a combatant he was seen as dangerous, with major political clangers, and he was sidelined in favour of people with far less intellectual vigour.
The problem is how to find ways for the bright figures to engage usefully without being tripped up by our savage gotcha culture. The Select Committee system is the best bet, and the simple mechanism of allowing them to introduce legislation, or even be the channel for it, as in the US model, would engage the best minds more productively.
Absolutely.
People (and especially perhaps who knows chippy people on PB) misunderestimate the ability, hard work, sacrifice and dedication that is required to become an MP.
I can genuinely say that there is not one PB-er who wouldn't be destroyed in debate on just about any subject in politics. To become an MP (and don't you know it, Nick) you will have cut your teeth on selection process after debate after argument after discussion.
Many MPs are genuinely impressive people, though in public interactions are often straight jacketed by political compositions or motivations so come across like idiots or robots. Actidl idiots do get through but are less than we fear, and most anonymously get on with ok work.
A big problem is MPs are not rewarded for doing things well, as Dr Palmer touches upon, as the system and culture sees no political value in things like legislative competency. So even good ones develop awful habits.
Somebody posted a "six stages of a project" thing the other day and said we have reached the "Disillusionment" stage.
That seems about right to me. I am looking forward to Stage 3 next - "Panic"
DK Brown's "Stages of a Project"
- Enthusiasm - Disillusionment - Panic - The Search for the Guilty - The punishment of the Innocent - Praise and Honour for the Non-Participants
I suspect we will see 3-5 in a single hour as the Gray report comes out.
Boris's panicking will result in anyone no matter how junior being punished as he tries to protect himself.
It sounds like the watering down of the Gray report is underway. I have little expectation of it having any effect except to identity the sheep to be culled to save the Big Dog.
If it is watered down it is the civil service unions work trying to protect their staff from being named, and not no10
It is suggested that it will be very bad for the civil servants in no 10 and Whitehall
I am sure it will be bad for them, but I am also sure that any political wiggleroom will be exploited to the maximum. If the wiggleroom can be increased by the correct sort of watering down then...
As the original supplier of the quoted stages of a project - it is a a favourite of mine....
The context was the HMS Captain saga. Where a ship was built against the advice of Chief Constructor (chief naval architect) of the Royal Navy. The ship rolled over and sank on the maiden voyage, killing nearly everyone on board. Including the designer....
- The Chief Constructor who had warned against the design was forced to resign. - His replacement was very nearly the naval architect for the shipyard that had mis-built the ship - the design was bad, but made worse by excess weight in construction...
On the junior people involved - everyone is trying to hide behind them.
The senior civil servants who are involved are trying to claim that it is really unfair on Doris the receptionist to bin her. Because if Doris goes, then Sir Reginald Fuckwit who was next in the conga line will get it in the neck.
The politicians will be doing the same with the junior SPADs....
Mind, at least the pols suffered. "First Lord of the Admiralty, Hugh Childers, and Under-Secretary of State for War, Thomas Baring, both lost sons in the disaster."
"Disney says it is "consulting with members of the dwarfism community" on the film "to avoid reinforcing stereotypes from the original animated film"."
Given Snow White is a Latina, maybe we can change the title to "Snow Latinx and the seven vertically challenged humanoids".
And I see they have Israeli actress Gal Gadot as the Evil Queen. Surely Anti-Semitism in action and reinforcing racial stereotypes as Jewish people out to dominate the world?
The original animation is a masterpiece, they should just leave it alone.
"Disney says it is "consulting with members of the dwarfism community" on the film "to avoid reinforcing stereotypes from the original animated film"."
Given Snow White is a Latina, maybe we can change the title to "Snow Latinx and the seven vertically challenged humanoids".
And I see they have Israeli actress Gal Gadot as the Evil Queen. Surely Anti-Semitism in action and reinforcing racial stereotypes as Jewish people out to dominate the world?
There was a very interesting phone in yesterday on 5Live about it.
Somebody posted a "six stages of a project" thing the other day and said we have reached the "Disillusionment" stage.
That seems about right to me. I am looking forward to Stage 3 next - "Panic"
DK Brown's "Stages of a Project"
- Enthusiasm - Disillusionment - Panic - The Search for the Guilty - The punishment of the Innocent - Praise and Honour for the Non-Participants
I suspect we will see 3-5 in a single hour as the Gray report comes out.
Boris's panicking will result in anyone no matter how junior being punished as he tries to protect himself.
It sounds like the watering down of the Gray report is underway. I have little expectation of it having any effect except to identity the sheep to be culled to save the Big Dog.
I am laying off a little on Sunak this morning.
Time and tide and all that. His moment may well be passing.
Personally, I have never rated him. He was an anonymous MP until elevated to Chancellor after which all he has done is to spend money at levels that would make a Corbynite blanche!
Exactly he has don enothing of note, however they are easy pleased on here.
SKS fans please explain As i forecast SKS peaked at 11.59 am on 19.1.22
Kaboom, Boris now slashes the Labour lead to under 5%!!
Well back into hung parliament territory again now
A no change poll is a "Kaboom" and a slashing? 🤦♂️
I thought you pretended to know polling and understand how it works, do you even know what the "(-)" after the poll shares means?
With all due respect, I don't think you're a polling expert at all, I just think you have a log of polls that suit your agenda and that you can cherrypick and pull out to your hearts content when it suits your interests to do so.
The Lab lead was 13 before last weeks PMQs the 3 polls since have the lead as 7,8,4 an average of 6.33 so basically halved
Is that with the same pollster?
No.
2 of the 3 showed a decrease in lead compared to last week the 3rd pollster had no poll since a month ago and reported no change since then
Yes, but as Bartholomew mentions below, there's no halving of leads with the same pollsters.
R&W was 13 last week and 7 this week
And 4 two weeks ago, and 3 three weeks ago.
The 13 is an outlier. It wasn't substantiated by either any other regular pollsters or by the same pollster.
A pollster polling every week will get outliers sometimes. All pollsters should and if they don't that should be a red flag that they're fiddling their data to avoid them.
Find out Now had the lead at 14%
I think their next poll will be about 7
So what do you think the average lead is now?
Find Out Now aren't a regular pollster who poll every month and they're again an exception not the norm. All the other regular pollsters had about 9-10% a week ago and now the regular pollsters seem to be saying 7-8%.
So it looks like the average has moved in by about 1-2% at the most which is basically margin of error.
The Wikipedia graphical summary of the opinion polls has been updated with the latest polls. What does it show?
There has been a very slight uptick in Tory support in the most recent polls, but you really have to zoom in to see it. The Labour share continues to increase, so it looks like the lead also continues to increase.
It looks like there's been a marked decline in the share for the Reform Party - perhaps Johnson has succeeded in defending his right flank at the expense of ceding ground to Labour in the centre.
If the Tories do make a recovery we will see it here. So far, not much sign of it.
The US are really not interested in giving Putin a victory to justify stepping back from the brink. No doubt some of our European friends will regard this as further warmongering by them.
Only way to deal with bullies is to take them on. Hopefully the USA reads them their full horoscope.
"Disney says it is "consulting with members of the dwarfism community" on the film "to avoid reinforcing stereotypes from the original animated film"."
Given Snow White is a Latina, maybe we can change the title to "Snow Latinx and the seven vertically challenged humanoids".
And I see they have Israeli actress Gal Gadot as the Evil Queen. Surely Anti-Semitism in action and reinforcing racial stereotypes as Jewish people out to dominate the world?
I don't understand why they are remaking the film. Could they just... not? if they need to keep the licence or something surely there is another way than aiming for a big budget hit.
I like the live action remakes of classic Disney films. Even if beat for beat its fun to see it live action, and some are more different than others. I enjoy spotting minor differences - in Aladdin in the Prince Ali song they changed reference from a Sunday salaam to Friday salaam and changed a line about him having slaves to just being servants.
Imagine how 155,000 bereaved families feel looking at this.
...
Does anyone know who the braying bearded tory in this clip is? He has pretty much handed my vote to the LDs
J. Gullis, MP for Stoke-on-Trent. I linked to his diatribe against lefty snitches yesterday, and as i said then it's astounding to me what an inexhaustible supply the PCP has of these cnuts.
The PCP is not alone, the labour party has its fair share too.
For me, a key moment in the downfall of our civilisation was on election night in 2017, when Nick Clegg was succeeded by Jared O'Mara. Clegg delivered a stateman like resignation speech. O Mara, who runs nightclubs, then came forward and started ranting in to the microphone, cheered on by a rowdy mob of supporters.
Against this Jonathan Gullis is an intellectual giant, having spent 7 years as a teacher rising to head of year in a secondary school.
Ultimately most people in Parliament are either professional politicians, or have come from very average backgrounds and have not had any major levels of success in their careers. I guess that they are like many people posting on here. They are definetely not the brightest and the best. This is another reason why Keir Starmer is so exceptional.
I appreciate your nuanced posts, and I certainly don't have any time for O'Mara, but I think your last para is not quite right. I knew a great many intelligent MPs, very successful in previous careers, who were seriously interested in getting policy right. The problem was that talent in previous professions doesn't guarantee talent in the rough and tumble world of politics. There were quite a few people from business and lecturing who were frankly not very good at front bench combat. Conversely the front-benchers were focused on combat and had little time to debate policy. The reason I'm a fan of Michael Gove is that he's unusually a combination of active mind and combative politician. Starmer is another, I think, as you imply.
By contrast, take Oliver Letwin. A successful banker, I think, with excellent connections, a Brexiteer with an enquiring mind and a real commitment to honesty (and genuinely nice, which still matters). But as a combatant he was seen as dangerous, with major political clangers, and he was sidelined in favour of people with far less intellectual vigour.
The problem is how to find ways for the bright figures to engage usefully without being tripped up by our savage gotcha culture. The Select Committee system is the best bet, and the simple mechanism of allowing them to introduce legislation, or even be the channel for it, as in the US model, would engage the best minds more productively.
That's an interesting angle @NickPalmer I hadn't thought through. Much appreciated. I am also a fan of Gove. I agree that people who are successful on the front bench can come from all backgrounds, and not just the 'best and brightest' in the traditional sense. It is important that this is recognised. Angela Rayner has proven herself to be an outstanding front bench politician, albeit in opposition. On paper Robert Jenrick had all the right credentials and looked like a rising star, but his tenure as SofS can only be regarded as a disaster.
I wonder if there is something in the changes in terms of intake, that have taken place post 2015. Perhaps something to do with the social media era. I am just not seeing people come through, even on the backbenches, that are professional giants with the standing of someone like Oliver Letwin. I agreed with your post about the labour candidate in Erdington being a good prospective addition to parliament (an experienced Councillor, community activist and senior nurse), but I would also like to see the next generation of Letwins and Starmers coming through.
"Disney says it is "consulting with members of the dwarfism community" on the film "to avoid reinforcing stereotypes from the original animated film"."
Given Snow White is a Latina, maybe we can change the title to "Snow Latinx and the seven vertically challenged humanoids".
And I see they have Israeli actress Gal Gadot as the Evil Queen. Surely Anti-Semitism in action and reinforcing racial stereotypes as Jewish people out to dominate the world?
There was a very interesting phone in yesterday on 5Live about it.
Worth a listen to hear how much abuse people with dwarfism get. It really isn't a joke.
No, and that actually is a very good point. I certainly wasn't joking about people with dwarfism. It's more how Disney is twisting itself round to fit the cultural climate.
Mind you, as has been pointed out, Dinkleage didn't seem to have too many problems with the dwarf jokes on GoT
On topic - Johnson is shameless and ruthlessly self-interested. He'll leave only if there's a VONC *and* he loses it. For this to be a likely outcome the Gray Report needs to be unequivocal that he lied to Parliament when claiming he had no prior knowledge of rule breaking events. I'd be surprised if it is. So it's odds against IMO that he'll be going anytime soon. Bets I recommend are (i) Him still to be PM on 1st July at 2.1 and (ii) Starmer Next PM at 11.
Let's be blunt, if it was Starmer facing exactly the same position, you - and probably around 80%+ of those criticising BJ for what he did - would be coming up with reasons as to why everyone was over-reacting to what Starmer did and it was all a Tory plot. You are not concerned about the actions, your main concern is which political party he represents.
As to the bets, I would take the first one and probably put a small nibble on the second but without much confidence.
Why do you assume everyone is like you? It's most odd.
I'm very happy to criticise "my side" if I think their actions are wrong. Anyone who pays attention to my posts - and I know you do - would realise this. Which just shows you're actually quite malicious behind the mask of reasonableness you put on.
Nope, sorry, you are an egregious example of moral sleaze trying to insinuate by sleight of hand that you are in the top moral 20%. Stop it.
Says the Peppa Pig. Like to give an example of both the moral sleaze bit and where I claim to be in the top moral 20% but or you going to talk out of your arse as usual?
You claim that 80%+ are morally fungible but that you yourself are not but are happy to criticise "my side". Can you genuinely not see the implicit claim there? Genuinely?
The moral sleaze consists in trying to neutralise moral criticism of your side by insisting that 80%+ of it can be dismissed as partisan. Again, this is not difficult stuff.
Trump and Johnson, what a package. People with genuine moral agency are able to stand aside from "their side" and assess these people on their merits.
"Personal view is that BJ obviously didn't follow his own rules, almost certainly lied and took the piss. However, he has not been taking brown envelopes full of cash (as far as we know) I'm much more concerned that whoever is running the country gets the big calls right and I think BJ has done that. I'd have the same view if it was Starmer."
Putting in a word for that lord's great exhibition plan, in return for having his expensive decoration paid for, comes pretty close. And that's before you start looking at where the PPE contracts went...
That is true re the wallpaper and the PPE contracts. TBJH, he should have resigned for the simple fact of considering Dido Harding as the next NHS Head.
But on the drinks things, I truly find it hard to get that outraged about it. As I said, I know a fair few people round this neck of the woods who are screeching about BJ having to go because of this and yet who broke the rules themselves.
Luckily not everyone has your lowlife Tory standards.
I know, it would be a much better world if everyone had your standards Malcolm. What a great place the world would be.
It would indeed by a very long way. Johnson should have been out on his arse long before now.
"Disney says it is "consulting with members of the dwarfism community" on the film "to avoid reinforcing stereotypes from the original animated film"."
Given Snow White is a Latina, maybe we can change the title to "Snow Latinx and the seven vertically challenged humanoids".
And I see they have Israeli actress Gal Gadot as the Evil Queen. Surely Anti-Semitism in action and reinforcing racial stereotypes as Jewish people out to dominate the world?
I don't understand why they are remaking the film. Could they just... not? if they need to keep the licence or something surely there is another way than aiming for a big budget hit.
They're probably simply remaking it because they're remaking all their major classic animations as live actions and its been extremely successful and profitable for them.
The live action remakes of Aladdin, Dumbo, Beauty and the Beast, Lion King and Cinderella were all very good. I actually think the live action Dumbo is better than the original.
I doubt its about keeping the licence since they've done other films in recent years like Snow White and the Huntsman.
"Disney says it is "consulting with members of the dwarfism community" on the film "to avoid reinforcing stereotypes from the original animated film"."
Given Snow White is a Latina, maybe we can change the title to "Snow Latinx and the seven vertically challenged humanoids".
And I see they have Israeli actress Gal Gadot as the Evil Queen. Surely Anti-Semitism in action and reinforcing racial stereotypes as Jewish people out to dominate the world?
The original animation is a masterpiece, they should just leave it alone.
Agreed. But Disney is under a bit of pressure at the moment share price wise.
The US are really not interested in giving Putin a victory to justify stepping back from the brink. No doubt some of our European friends will regard this as further warmongering by them.
Only way to deal with bullies is to take them on.
Horrible expression. Might be true here, but it's like the one about bullies being cowards. Some aren't, and you can be in for a world of pain if you think they are.
This is where a leader like Macron would never allow something like this to happen and why I respect how he operates in France. Robust defence of free speech and free thought.
The Wikipedia graphical summary of the opinion polls has been updated with the latest polls. What does it show?
There has been a very slight uptick in Tory support in the most recent polls, but you really have to zoom in to see it. The Labour share continues to increase, so it looks like the lead also continues to increase.
It looks like there's been a marked decline in the share for the Reform Party - perhaps Johnson has succeeded in defending his right flank at the expense of ceding ground to Labour in the centre.
If the Tories do make a recovery we will see it here. So far, not much sign of it.
Half the latest 4 polls have Labour under 40% and the Tories on 34%, the recovery is there.
As the graph shows 2 weeks ago most polls had Labour over 40% and a few even had the Tories under 30%
"Disney says it is "consulting with members of the dwarfism community" on the film "to avoid reinforcing stereotypes from the original animated film"."
Given Snow White is a Latina, maybe we can change the title to "Snow Latinx and the seven vertically challenged humanoids".
And I see they have Israeli actress Gal Gadot as the Evil Queen. Surely Anti-Semitism in action and reinforcing racial stereotypes as Jewish people out to dominate the world?
The original animation is a masterpiece, they should just leave it alone.
Somebody posted a "six stages of a project" thing the other day and said we have reached the "Disillusionment" stage.
That seems about right to me. I am looking forward to Stage 3 next - "Panic"
DK Brown's "Stages of a Project"
- Enthusiasm - Disillusionment - Panic - The Search for the Guilty - The punishment of the Innocent - Praise and Honour for the Non-Participants
I suspect we will see 3-5 in a single hour as the Gray report comes out.
Boris's panicking will result in anyone no matter how junior being punished as he tries to protect himself.
It sounds like the watering down of the Gray report is underway. I have little expectation of it having any effect except to identity the sheep to be culled to save the Big Dog.
If it is watered down it is the civil service unions work trying to protect their staff from being named, and not no10
It is suggested that it will be very bad for the civil servants in no 10 and Whitehall
I am sure it will be bad for them, but I am also sure that any political wiggleroom will be exploited to the maximum. If the wiggleroom can be increased by the correct sort of watering down then...
As the original supplier of the quoted stages of a project - it is a a favourite of mine....
The context was the HMS Captain saga. Where a ship was built against the advice of Chief Constructor (chief naval architect) of the Royal Navy. The ship rolled over and sank on the maiden voyage, killing nearly everyone on board. Including the designer....
- The Chief Constructor who had warned against the design was forced to resign. - His replacement was very nearly the naval architect for the shipyard that had mis-built the ship - the design was bad, but made worse by excess weight in construction...
On the junior people involved - everyone is trying to hide behind them.
The senior civil servants who are involved are trying to claim that it is really unfair on Doris the receptionist to bin her. Because if Doris goes, then Sir Reginald Fuckwit who was next in the conga line will get it in the neck.
The politicians will be doing the same with the junior SPADs....
Bury South CLP members have been told there will be a trigger ballot process, as with other sitting Labour MPs.
Local branches will be able to choose whether to trigger a full selection, though that path has become narrower since conference.
Wakeford also paid tribute to Labour's 2019 candidate Lucy Burke, said he was proud to work with Barry Gardiner on his fire and rehire bill, and said Bury South deserves better than this Tory government.
Wakeford would support Corbyn getting the whip back and would be happy to sit next to him if he did as the whips asks (apologised).
SKS fans please explain As i forecast SKS peaked at 11.59 am on 19.1.22
Kaboom, Boris now slashes the Labour lead to under 5%!!
Well back into hung parliament territory again now
A no change poll is a "Kaboom" and a slashing? 🤦♂️
I thought you pretended to know polling and understand how it works, do you even know what the "(-)" after the poll shares means?
With all due respect, I don't think you're a polling expert at all, I just think you have a log of polls that suit your agenda and that you can cherrypick and pull out to your hearts content when it suits your interests to do so.
The Lab lead was 13 before last weeks PMQs the 3 polls since have the lead as 7,8,4 an average of 6.33 so basically halved
Is that with the same pollster?
No.
2 of the 3 showed a decrease in lead compared to last week the 3rd pollster had no poll since a month ago and reported no change since then
Yes, but as Bartholomew mentions below, there's no halving of leads with the same pollsters.
R&W was 13 last week and 7 this week
And 4 two weeks ago, and 3 three weeks ago.
The 13 is an outlier. It wasn't substantiated by either any other regular pollsters or by the same pollster.
A pollster polling every week will get outliers sometimes. All pollsters should and if they don't that should be a red flag that they're fiddling their data to avoid them.
Find out Now had the lead at 14%
I think their next poll will be about 7
So what do you think the average lead is now?
Find Out Now aren't a regular pollster who poll every month and they're again an exception not the norm. All the other regular pollsters had about 9-10% a week ago and now the regular pollsters seem to be saying 7-8%.
Doesn't Mike Smithson have a Golden Rule about selective eyesight?
"Disney says it is "consulting with members of the dwarfism community" on the film "to avoid reinforcing stereotypes from the original animated film"."
Given Snow White is a Latina, maybe we can change the title to "Snow Latinx and the seven vertically challenged humanoids".
And I see they have Israeli actress Gal Gadot as the Evil Queen. Surely Anti-Semitism in action and reinforcing racial stereotypes as Jewish people out to dominate the world?
I don't understand why they are remaking the film. Could they just... not? if they need to keep the licence or something surely there is another way than aiming for a big budget hit.
The cinemas are just coming back and Disney is playing safe, remaking what it thought would be merely an updated version of a loved classic remade for the modern age. I think China played a big part in their thinking - this would have been a film that would have done well there (and globally) and, crucially, hasn't got anything in it that would offend the Chinese market and get the censors there to block it.
SKS fans please explain As i forecast SKS peaked at 11.59 am on 19.1.22
Kaboom, Boris now slashes the Labour lead to under 5%!!
Well back into hung parliament territory again now
A no change poll is a "Kaboom" and a slashing? 🤦♂️
I thought you pretended to know polling and understand how it works, do you even know what the "(-)" after the poll shares means?
With all due respect, I don't think you're a polling expert at all, I just think you have a log of polls that suit your agenda and that you can cherrypick and pull out to your hearts content when it suits your interests to do so.
The Lab lead was 13 before last weeks PMQs the 3 polls since have the lead as 7,8,4 an average of 6.33 so basically halved
Is that with the same pollster?
No.
2 of the 3 showed a decrease in lead compared to last week the 3rd pollster had no poll since a month ago and reported no change since then
Yes, but as Bartholomew mentions below, there's no halving of leads with the same pollsters.
R&W was 13 last week and 7 this week
And 4 two weeks ago, and 3 three weeks ago.
The 13 is an outlier. It wasn't substantiated by either any other regular pollsters or by the same pollster.
A pollster polling every week will get outliers sometimes. All pollsters should and if they don't that should be a red flag that they're fiddling their data to avoid them.
The other thing is the pattern of how the polls respond to big scandals. Straight after the scandal, the ratings of the culpable drop a lot. As the row dissipates, they bounce back a fair bit, but not completely- more than a few voters remember, and never return.
I have immense respect for Breyer as a man & a jurist, but I worry this decision reeks of partisanship. If the Court becomes just another instrument of partisan politics, then we’re truly lost. What about waiting until a 2nd Trump term to prove this isn’t about Team R & Team D? https://twitter.com/IChotiner/status/1486395614455754752
Christ, I was joking yesterday when I suggested someone would try that line.
The tweet is a joke too, though it's slightly surprising the number who take it as a straight argument.
Without clicking on it I thought it had a good chance of being a joke. But as you imply plenty may think it seriously.
On topic - Johnson is shameless and ruthlessly self-interested. He'll leave only if there's a VONC *and* he loses it. For this to be a likely outcome the Gray Report needs to be unequivocal that he lied to Parliament when claiming he had no prior knowledge of rule breaking events. I'd be surprised if it is. So it's odds against IMO that he'll be going anytime soon. Bets I recommend are (i) Him still to be PM on 1st July at 2.1 and (ii) Starmer Next PM at 11.
Let's be blunt, if it was Starmer facing exactly the same position, you - and probably around 80%+ of those criticising BJ for what he did - would be coming up with reasons as to why everyone was over-reacting to what Starmer did and it was all a Tory plot. You are not concerned about the actions, your main concern is which political party he represents.
As to the bets, I would take the first one and probably put a small nibble on the second but without much confidence.
Why do you assume everyone is like you? It's most odd.
I'm very happy to criticise "my side" if I think their actions are wrong. Anyone who pays attention to my posts - and I know you do - would realise this. Which just shows you're actually quite malicious behind the mask of reasonableness you put on.
Nope, sorry, you are an egregious example of moral sleaze trying to insinuate by sleight of hand that you are in the top moral 20%. Stop it.
Says the Peppa Pig. Like to give an example of both the moral sleaze bit and where I claim to be in the top moral 20% but or you going to talk out of your arse as usual?
You claim that 80%+ are morally fungible but that you yourself are not but are happy to criticise "my side". Can you genuinely not see the implicit claim there? Genuinely?
The moral sleaze consists in trying to neutralise moral criticism of your side by insisting that 80%+ of it can be dismissed as partisan. Again, this is not difficult stuff.
Trump and Johnson, what a package. People with genuine moral agency are able to stand aside from "their side" and assess these people on their merits.
"Personal view is that BJ obviously didn't follow his own rules, almost certainly lied and took the piss. However, he has not been taking brown envelopes full of cash (as far as we know) I'm much more concerned that whoever is running the country gets the big calls right and I think BJ has done that. I'd have the same view if it was Starmer."
Putting in a word for that lord's great exhibition plan, in return for having his expensive decoration paid for, comes pretty close. And that's before you start looking at where the PPE contracts went...
That is true re the wallpaper and the PPE contracts. TBJH, he should have resigned for the simple fact of considering Dido Harding as the next NHS Head.
But on the drinks things, I truly find it hard to get that outraged about it. As I said, I know a fair few people round this neck of the woods who are screeching about BJ having to go because of this and yet who broke the rules themselves.
Luckily not everyone has your lowlife Tory standards.
I know, it would be a much better world if everyone had your standards Malcolm. What a great place the world would be.
It would indeed by a very long way. Johnson should have been out on his arse long before now.
And everyone who disagreed with you would be called a turnip or whatever other vegetable. You don't strike me as the most tolerant chap.
Bury South CLP members have been told there will be a trigger ballot process, as with other sitting Labour MPs.
Local branches will be able to choose whether to trigger a full selection, though that path has become narrower since conference.
Wakeford also paid tribute to Labour's 2019 candidate Lucy Burke, said he was proud to work with Barry Gardiner on his fire and rehire bill, and said Bury South deserves better than this Tory government.
Wakeford would support Corbyn getting the whip back and would be happy to sit next to him if he did as the whips asks (apologised).
Once again a very selective choice of tweets there (I saw the whole thread and it seems Wakefield did a decent job in the meeting).
Labour are going to need to counter this clever new meme coming out of the Tory front bench that "we got all the big calls right". Left unchallenged - and let's be honest, it's bollocks: they got a couple of big Covid calls right namely vaccine procurement and not locking down over Omicron, and have got many big calls disastrously wrong on tax, education, previous Covid waves, HS2, (not) levelling up etc - this becomes a very easy one liner to worm into people's subconscious. I saw it was being parroted by talking heads already yesterday.
These one-liners, repeatedly delivered until they become a mental reflex, are so effective. Take back control, get Brexit done, and further back "Labour bankrupted the country" / "repairing the mess we inherited". Labour's own equivalent is the variations on the theme of "you can't trust the Tories on the NHS" but they need more. I would be going hard on cost of living and household finances, and find one or two easily memorable statements that the Labour front bench can just keep chanting until they stick.
Mirror Mirror is a Snow White story worth watching, for the most ridiculous costuming ever seen on film. They have a party scene with people wearing hats in the shape of and super elaborate and realistic sailing ships for some reason.
Apologies if this has been pointed out. But in my sector, education, the timescale from application to closing date, to shortlist, interview, second interview, references, enhanced DBS to start date is longer than four weeks. Far longer last time I tried. I assume for some others it may be too. Edit. I notice it has.
When I was fresh out of university I applied for job A in the summer, job B in the early autumn and job C a few weeks later. (And lots of other jobs too, of course)
I had my first interview for job A before I applied for job C. Not sure exactly when I had the interviews for jobs B and C, but I was offered job B on my first day of job C, and had my second interview for job A during my second week at job C, which was my last week in that job, before starting job B the next week.
Was told informally at second interview for job A that I would be offered the job, but they had to have a meeting first to decide how much to offer me in pay before sending the formal offer.
I ended up working at job B for just over four months, while waiting for security clearance to start job A, which organisation I stayed at for more than a decade.
Jobs B and C only gave me the time of day because I was a fresh graduate, and so they thought they could have a look at me in a low level role before moving me to something better internally. They wouldn't even consider me these days for those jobs now, because my CV would make it obvious I'd be moving on asap, and it would be a waste of their time.
BUT - I really don't think this change will be applied to harass people like me. It certainly wasn't last time I claimed JSA, even though I'd been out of work with depression for more than a year.
It will be used to harass people lower down the economic ladder. And that's why politically it is a plus for HMG.
It isn't given many of them live in the redwall
Haven't we been through this before?
The new Tory voters in these northern seats will typically be the people with jobs who have recently bought new-build houses, who drive everywhere - if they're not old enough to be receiving their pension.
They won't be affected by this change. They will mostly applaud it.
They will if they lose their job and are made redundant, they would have to apply to be toilet cleaners and McDonald's servers after one month for example rather than the surveyors, middle managers, accountants, construction managers, police officers etc they were before.
They would actually be more affected by it than the low skilled unless they have huge savings they could live off for 6 months to a year without needing to apply for UC or JSA
Somebody posted a "six stages of a project" thing the other day and said we have reached the "Disillusionment" stage.
That seems about right to me. I am looking forward to Stage 3 next - "Panic"
DK Brown's "Stages of a Project"
- Enthusiasm - Disillusionment - Panic - The Search for the Guilty - The punishment of the Innocent - Praise and Honour for the Non-Participants
I suspect we will see 3-5 in a single hour as the Gray report comes out.
Boris's panicking will result in anyone no matter how junior being punished as he tries to protect himself.
It sounds like the watering down of the Gray report is underway. I have little expectation of it having any effect except to identity the sheep to be culled to save the Big Dog.
I am laying off a little on Sunak this morning.
Time and tide and all that. His moment may well be passing.
Personally, I have never rated him. He was an anonymous MP until elevated to Chancellor after which all he has done is to spend money at levels that would make a Corbynite blanche!
Exactly he has don enothing of note, however they are easy pleased on here.
Morning Malc. How's your lady wife now?
Hello OKC, she is a lot better , still getting some odd things every so often , all her bones aching and strange sensation with all the nerves on her head giving sharp pains. Not sure if connected. Her lungs are not 100% , as she cannot do anything like the exercise she used to but in grand scheme of things we cannot complain at all. Hope you and wife are well. Sun shining here today.
Let’s all rejoice in the knowledge that “proper tories” have a thing for a man who perpetually lies.
Proper Tories wouldn’t be heading toward a tax increase in April. Or have the smallest lead on the economy since god knows when. Or preside over an energy crisis in part exacerbated by green levies / removal of storage capacity. Etc.
This is where a leader like Macron would never allow something like this to happen and why I respect how he operates in France. Robust defence of free speech and free thought.
Don't the police have anything better to do, like investigating all those parties in No 10?
Somebody posted a "six stages of a project" thing the other day and said we have reached the "Disillusionment" stage.
That seems about right to me. I am looking forward to Stage 3 next - "Panic"
DK Brown's "Stages of a Project"
- Enthusiasm - Disillusionment - Panic - The Search for the Guilty - The punishment of the Innocent - Praise and Honour for the Non-Participants
I suspect we will see 3-5 in a single hour as the Gray report comes out.
Boris's panicking will result in anyone no matter how junior being punished as he tries to protect himself.
It sounds like the watering down of the Gray report is underway. I have little expectation of it having any effect except to identity the sheep to be culled to save the Big Dog.
If it is watered down it is the civil service unions work trying to protect their staff from being named, and not no10
It is suggested that it will be very bad for the civil servants in no 10 and Whitehall
I am sure it will be bad for them, but I am also sure that any political wiggleroom will be exploited to the maximum. If the wiggleroom can be increased by the correct sort of watering down then...
As the original supplier of the quoted stages of a project - it is a a favourite of mine....
The context was the HMS Captain saga. Where a ship was built against the advice of Chief Constructor (chief naval architect) of the Royal Navy. The ship rolled over and sank on the maiden voyage, killing nearly everyone on board. Including the designer....
- The Chief Constructor who had warned against the design was forced to resign. - His replacement was very nearly the naval architect for the shipyard that had mis-built the ship - the design was bad, but made worse by excess weight in construction...
On the junior people involved - everyone is trying to hide behind them.
The senior civil servants who are involved are trying to claim that it is really unfair on Doris the receptionist to bin her. Because if Doris goes, then Sir Reginald Fuckwit who was next in the conga line will get it in the neck.
The politicians will be doing the same with the junior SPADs....
Very interesting bit of history Mr M.
The history of the 19th cent Royal Navy is fascinating from a project management, technology, innovation, working culture, social changes (and many others) perspectives. There are lessons there for nearly every aspect of running things in todays world. There is even an early (and successful) usage of PFI!
The traditional view of a bunch of hidebound Admirals only interested in floggings and sails is rubbish - you could, in fact, argue that the RN was *too* keen on innovation. A considerable number of ships were built that were novel and utterly useless.
This is where a leader like Macron would never allow something like this to happen and why I respect how he operates in France. Robust defence of free speech and free thought.
Don't the police have anything better to do, like investigating all those parties in No 10?
I don't understand where our supposedly right wing Home Secretary is in all of this, how have we got to a stage where thought crimes are being pursued by the police? Though maybe that's what she wants.
The Wikipedia graphical summary of the opinion polls has been updated with the latest polls. What does it show?
There has been a very slight uptick in Tory support in the most recent polls, but you really have to zoom in to see it. The Labour share continues to increase, so it looks like the lead also continues to increase.
It looks like there's been a marked decline in the share for the Reform Party - perhaps Johnson has succeeded in defending his right flank at the expense of ceding ground to Labour in the centre.
If the Tories do make a recovery we will see it here. So far, not much sign of it.
Half the latest 4 polls have Labour under 40% and the Tories on 34%, the recovery is there.
As the graph shows 2 weeks ago most polls had Labour over 40% and a few even had the Tories under 30%
If you look at only a small number of polls then most of the time you will be analysing random fluctuations that have no basis in reality. This is why looking at an average has value - it evens out the random fluctuations.
That is what the graph does with a LOESS smooth. It doesn't show what you want to see.
At the moment there is insufficient evidence for a Tory recovery. Perhaps it will come. But there's no way of knowing for sure whether it is starting now, or if you're looking at noise.
Apologies if this has been pointed out. But in my sector, education, the timescale from application to closing date, to shortlist, interview, second interview, references, enhanced DBS to start date is longer than four weeks. Far longer last time I tried. I assume for some others it may be too. Edit. I notice it has.
When I was fresh out of university I applied for job A in the summer, job B in the early autumn and job C a few weeks later. (And lots of other jobs too, of course)
I had my first interview for job A before I applied for job C. Not sure exactly when I had the interviews for jobs B and C, but I was offered job B on my first day of job C, and had my second interview for job A during my second week at job C, which was my last week in that job, before starting job B the next week.
Was told informally at second interview for job A that I would be offered the job, but they had to have a meeting first to decide how much to offer me in pay before sending the formal offer.
I ended up working at job B for just over four months, while waiting for security clearance to start job A, which organisation I stayed at for more than a decade.
Jobs B and C only gave me the time of day because I was a fresh graduate, and so they thought they could have a look at me in a low level role before moving me to something better internally. They wouldn't even consider me these days for those jobs now, because my CV would make it obvious I'd be moving on asap, and it would be a waste of their time.
BUT - I really don't think this change will be applied to harass people like me. It certainly wasn't last time I claimed JSA, even though I'd been out of work with depression for more than a year.
It will be used to harass people lower down the economic ladder. And that's why politically it is a plus for HMG.
It isn't given many of them live in the redwall
Haven't we been through this before?
The new Tory voters in these northern seats will typically be the people with jobs who have recently bought new-build houses, who drive everywhere - if they're not old enough to be receiving their pension.
They won't be affected by this change. They will mostly applaud it.
They will if they lose their job, they would have to apply to be toilet cleaners and McDonald's staff after one month for example rather than the surveyors, middle managers, accountants, construction managers, police officers etc they were before.
They would actually be more affected by it than the low skilled
But you are a social conservative? surely people who are able to work should be contributing to society rather than being a burden on it.
So if they aren't earning money they are a burden on society and that isn't right.
SKS fans please explain As i forecast SKS peaked at 11.59 am on 19.1.22
Kaboom, Boris now slashes the Labour lead to under 5%!!
Well back into hung parliament territory again now
A no change poll is a "Kaboom" and a slashing? 🤦♂️
I thought you pretended to know polling and understand how it works, do you even know what the "(-)" after the poll shares means?
With all due respect, I don't think you're a polling expert at all, I just think you have a log of polls that suit your agenda and that you can cherrypick and pull out to your hearts content when it suits your interests to do so.
2 weeks ago Labour were 10 points ahead or more, now all the polls show Boris has slashed the Labour lead to under 5%.
Indeed on the Kantar poll today it would now be neck and neck after the new boundaries, Labour 284, Tories 273.
The most recent polls by pollster, for the regular pollsters, from Wikipedia:
Redfield & Wilton 7% Lab lead Kantar 4% Lab lead Survation 10% Lab lead Savanta ComRes 8% Lab lead Deltapoll 9% Lab lead YouGov 8% Lab lead Opinium 10% Lab lead
So far from all the polls showing the lead has been slashed to under 5%, the reality is that only Kantar shows that. All other pollsters show higher.
Incidentally Kantar's 4% Lab lead is the joint highest Lab lead they have ever had. So even that one's not slashed.
So your claim that the lead has been slashed to under 5% is 100% false and untrue - the only regular pollster showing the lead under 5% never had the lead higher than it in the first place, and all other pollsters leads are higher.
Bit touchy this morning there BartholomewRoberts.
Not one current poll has Labour over 10% ahead. 2 weeks ago most polls had Labour 10% ahead or more.
The latest poll even has the Labour lead under 5%.
Proper loyal Tories unlike you will now hold the line for Boris again
I just won't buy the bullshit you're selling. You have zero integrity it seems, and I do.
Blue on blue.
Anyone who feels the need to tell other people how much integrity they have, almost certainly doesn't.
Comments
I had my first interview for job A before I applied for job C. Not sure exactly when I had the interviews for jobs B and C, but I was offered job B on my first day of job C, and had my second interview for job A during my second week at job C, which was my last week in that job, before starting job B the next week.
Was told informally at second interview for job A that I would be offered the job, but they had to have a meeting first to decide how much to offer me in pay before sending the formal offer.
I ended up working at job B for just over four months, while waiting for security clearance to start job A, which organisation I stayed at for more than a decade.
Jobs B and C only gave me the time of day because I was a fresh graduate, and so they thought they could have a look at me in a low level role before moving me to something better internally. They wouldn't even consider me these days for those jobs now, because my CV would make it obvious I'd be moving on asap, and it would be a waste of their time.
BUT - I really don't think this change will be applied to harass people like me. It certainly wasn't last time I claimed JSA, even though I'd been out of work with depression for more than a year.
It will be used to harass people lower down the economic ladder. And that's why politically it is a plus for HMG.
Their plan to get rid of Boris is falling apart all around them at the moment
Then when it's published the couer de cri will be "Why aren't the media focussing on the important issues, they've spent weeks on the Gray report".
The longer No 10 drags it out, the more bored with it everyone becomes and the lesser the impact.
It's a cynical calculation.
https://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/international/six-great-reasons-for-brexiters-to-join-the-army-immediately-20220126216691
Never said average lead was 13 it was about 10-11 its now 4-7 this week (halved)
None of us on here have any power to do so
And doesn't this predate the Kantar Poll?
https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/uk-boris-johnson-resign-prime-minister-yougov-poll-1422503
Not one current poll has Labour over 10% ahead. 2 weeks ago most polls had Labour 10% ahead or more.
The latest poll even has the Labour lead under 5%.
Proper loyal Tories unlike you will now hold the line for Boris again
The US company Nvidia does not expect the US$40bn deal to buy ARM from current owner Softbank to complete, sources from within told Bloomberg today.
Japanese tech investor Softbank meanwhile is preparing to float ARM as an alternative way to realise all or part of its investment
How does Her Maj react to this? Presumably she is aware.
It is also such a break from JRM's previous image as the defender of obscure constitutional minutae that it makes me wonder what else is going on that gives him such an interest in seeking to keep Johnson in power. Sure he has a nice gig but he's not even a proper member of Cabinet. And the UK has now left the European Union. So what gives?
8,7,4 since last weeks PMQs not sure why you have excluded the two 13 pt leads!!
HYUFD, Sandpit and and handful of other loyal defenders salute, ready for the rearguard action. They look intently down from their mountain base, wind in their hair, feeling it may be the moment that things turn their way once more.
By contrast, take Oliver Letwin. A successful banker, I think, with excellent connections, a Brexiteer with an enquiring mind and a real commitment to honesty (and genuinely nice, which still matters). But as a combatant he was seen as dangerous, with major political clangers, and he was sidelined in favour of people with far less intellectual vigour.
The problem is how to find ways for the bright figures to engage usefully without being tripped up by our savage gotcha culture. The Select Committee system is the best bet, and the simple mechanism of allowing them to introduce legislation, or even be the channel for it, as in the US model, would engage the best minds more productively.
Interesting question is how will Softbank float ARM in the US (where the money is) given the UK's viewpoint on ownership...
So what one is left with is an exercise in connecting the dots. That could be bad for the PM if things line up badly but it does create a spinnable line of “this was not expressly concluded” or somesuch. Which would be a bad faith interpretation given that the ambit and scope of the report is not to make such conclusions, but Boris won’t care about that.
Totally agree it's a bad look for the PM and he was wrong. However, in reference to an earlier point, I would much rather have BJ as a PM than a Labour opposition leader who thinks it was right for a nurse to refuse a grieving husband access to his dying wife for the "common good"
The US are really not interested in giving Putin a victory to justify stepping back from the brink. No doubt some of our European friends will regard this as further warmongering by them.
You think that lets rational actors decide how best to live their lives. I think that approach is a false economy because it leads to a poorer world for all of us. I don't see how you can look at the poor fabric of the UK and US - massively rich countries supposedly - and think anything else.
People aren't rational actors. We don't start from a level playing field. The great seduction of right wing though is that if you work hard enough you will succeed. I don't see how you can look across the pond, and the UK now, and think that is correct.
You're very good at picking up pieces of people's comments and spinning away into diversions, cul-de-sacs. I don't want to debate economic theory, you have proved time and time again to be terrier like and tenacious and I just don't have the time, energy or inclination to go through this.
I stand by my original point, from my perspective the Tories and Republicans have built a coalition of the selfish. Over many decades, with much think tanking and building of seductive theories that are probably no more or less relevant or accurate than Marxism is from the opposite side of the spectrum.
I don't expect you to agree.
The context was the HMS Captain saga. Where a ship was built against the advice of Chief Constructor (chief naval architect) of the Royal Navy. The ship rolled over and sank on the maiden voyage, killing nearly everyone on board. Including the designer....
- The Chief Constructor who had warned against the design was forced to resign.
- His replacement was very nearly the naval architect for the shipyard that had mis-built the ship - the design was bad, but made worse by excess weight in construction...
On the junior people involved - everyone is trying to hide behind them.
The senior civil servants who are involved are trying to claim that it is really unfair on Doris the receptionist to bin her. Because if Doris goes, then Sir Reginald Fuckwit who was next in the conga line will get it in the neck.
The politicians will be doing the same with the junior SPADs....
The new Tory voters in these northern seats will typically be the people with jobs who have recently bought new-build houses, who drive everywhere - if they're not old enough to be receiving their pension.
They won't be affected by this change. They will mostly applaud it.
This would reduce random cabinet reshuffles by design and hopefully also lead to MPs gaining deeper understanding and knowledge of a specific area rather than pretending to know everything about everything.
Only three pollsters this week have shown a fall in the Labour lead: R&W, Survation and YouGov.
Survation and YouGov have both seen the Labour lead reduce by only 1, which is Margin of Error/Rounding Error territory.
Kantar showed literally 0 change.
R&W is the outlier showing a 6% reduction of the Labour lead, but their last poll looks like an outlier and the current one looks like a reversion to mean. They've done three polls this month which have shown a 4%, 13% and now 7% lead so the 13% looks very much like an outlier.
Have some integrity with the polls and then people might believe you when you actually have a good point. Simply lie to us about slashed leads with blatant lies and untruths and people can call it out.
People (and especially perhaps who knows chippy people on PB) misunderestimate the ability, hard work, sacrifice and dedication that is required to become an MP.
I can genuinely say that there is not one PB-er who wouldn't be destroyed in debate on just about any subject in politics. To become an MP (and don't you know it, Nick) you will have cut your teeth on selection process after debate after argument after discussion.
#obviousjokesarebestjokes
The 13 is an outlier. It wasn't substantiated by either any other regular pollsters or by the same pollster.
A pollster polling every week will get outliers sometimes. All pollsters should and if they don't that should be a red flag that they're fiddling their data to avoid them.
Tho other key issue is whether it supports a formal claim that Johnson misled the house
If the facts aren't on your side argue the law
If the law isn't in your side argue the facts
If neither are on your side bang the table...or hope for war in Ukraine.
https://news.sky.com/story/disney-responds-to-peter-dinklage-after-his-comments-about-remake-of-snow-white-and-the-seven-dwarfs-12525667
"Disney says it is "consulting with members of the dwarfism community" on the film "to avoid reinforcing stereotypes from the original animated film"."
Given Snow White is a Latina, maybe we can change the title to "Snow Latinx and the seven vertically challenged humanoids".
And I see they have Israeli actress Gal Gadot as the Evil Queen. Surely Anti-Semitism in action and reinforcing racial stereotypes as Jewish people out to dominate the world?
I think their next poll will be about 7
So what do you think the average lead is now?
A big problem is MPs are not rewarded for doing things well, as Dr Palmer touches upon, as the system and culture sees no political value in things like legislative competency. So even good ones develop awful habits.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m0013r2v
Worth a listen to hear how much abuse people with dwarfism get. It really isn't a joke.
So it looks like the average has moved in by about 1-2% at the most which is basically margin of error.
There has been a very slight uptick in Tory support in the most recent polls, but you really have to zoom in to see it. The Labour share continues to increase, so it looks like the lead also continues to increase.
It looks like there's been a marked decline in the share for the Reform Party - perhaps Johnson has succeeded in defending his right flank at the expense of ceding ground to Labour in the centre.
If the Tories do make a recovery we will see it here. So far, not much sign of it.
It was only a matter of time I suppose.
I wonder if there is something in the changes in terms of intake, that have taken place post 2015. Perhaps something to do with the social media era. I am just not seeing people come through, even on the backbenches, that are professional giants with the standing of someone like Oliver Letwin. I agreed with your post about the labour candidate in Erdington being a good prospective addition to parliament (an experienced Councillor, community activist and senior nurse), but I would also like to see the next generation of Letwins and Starmers coming through.
Mind you, as has been pointed out, Dinkleage didn't seem to have too many problems with the dwarf jokes on GoT
The live action remakes of Aladdin, Dumbo, Beauty and the Beast, Lion King and Cinderella were all very good. I actually think the live action Dumbo is better than the original.
I doubt its about keeping the licence since they've done other films in recent years like Snow White and the Huntsman.
This is where a leader like Macron would never allow something like this to happen and why I respect how he operates in France. Robust defence of free speech and free thought.
As the graph shows 2 weeks ago most polls had Labour over 40% and a few even had the Tories under 30%
Local branches will be able to choose whether to trigger a full selection, though that path has become narrower since conference.
Wakeford also paid tribute to Labour's 2019 candidate Lucy Burke, said he was proud to work with Barry Gardiner on his fire and rehire bill, and said Bury South deserves better than this Tory government.
Wakeford would support Corbyn getting the whip back and would be happy to sit next to him if he did as the whips asks (apologised).
The fact is they are floundering to protect the only person willing to employ them.
These one-liners, repeatedly delivered until they become a mental reflex, are so effective. Take back control, get Brexit done, and further back "Labour bankrupted the country" / "repairing the mess we inherited". Labour's own equivalent is the variations on the theme of "you can't trust the Tories on the NHS" but they need more. I would be going hard on cost of living and household finances, and find one or two easily memorable statements that the Labour front bench can just keep chanting until they stick.
They would actually be more affected by it than the low skilled unless they have huge savings they could live off for 6 months to a year without needing to apply for UC or JSA
Proper Tories wouldn’t be heading toward a tax increase in April. Or have the smallest lead on the economy since god knows when. Or preside over an energy crisis in part exacerbated by green levies / removal of storage capacity. Etc.
The traditional view of a bunch of hidebound Admirals only interested in floggings and sails is rubbish - you could, in fact, argue that the RN was *too* keen on innovation. A considerable number of ships were built that were novel and utterly useless.
That is what the graph does with a LOESS smooth. It doesn't show what you want to see.
At the moment there is insufficient evidence for a Tory recovery. Perhaps it will come. But there's no way of knowing for sure whether it is starting now, or if you're looking at noise.
So if they aren't earning money they are a burden on society and that isn't right.
Anyone who feels the need to tell other people how much integrity they have, almost certainly doesn't.