The Wikipedia graphical summary of the opinion polls has been updated with the latest polls. What does it show?
There has been a very slight uptick in Tory support in the most recent polls, but you really have to zoom in to see it. The Labour share continues to increase, so it looks like the lead also continues to increase.
It looks like there's been a marked decline in the share for the Reform Party - perhaps Johnson has succeeded in defending his right flank at the expense of ceding ground to Labour in the centre.
If the Tories do make a recovery we will see it here. So far, not much sign of it.
Half the latest 4 polls have Labour under 40% and the Tories on 34%, the recovery is there.
As the graph shows 2 weeks ago most polls had Labour over 40% and a few even had the Tories under 30%
If you look at only a small number of polls then most of the time you will be analysing random fluctuations that have no basis in reality. This is why looking at an average has value - it evens out the random fluctuations.
That is what the graph does with a LOESS smooth. It doesn't show what you want to see.
At the moment there is insufficient evidence for a Tory recovery. Perhaps it will come. But there's no way of knowing for sure whether it is starting now, or if you're looking at noise.
Apologies if this has been pointed out. But in my sector, education, the timescale from application to closing date, to shortlist, interview, second interview, references, enhanced DBS to start date is longer than four weeks. Far longer last time I tried. I assume for some others it may be too. Edit. I notice it has.
When I was fresh out of university I applied for job A in the summer, job B in the early autumn and job C a few weeks later. (And lots of other jobs too, of course)
I had my first interview for job A before I applied for job C. Not sure exactly when I had the interviews for jobs B and C, but I was offered job B on my first day of job C, and had my second interview for job A during my second week at job C, which was my last week in that job, before starting job B the next week.
Was told informally at second interview for job A that I would be offered the job, but they had to have a meeting first to decide how much to offer me in pay before sending the formal offer.
I ended up working at job B for just over four months, while waiting for security clearance to start job A, which organisation I stayed at for more than a decade.
Jobs B and C only gave me the time of day because I was a fresh graduate, and so they thought they could have a look at me in a low level role before moving me to something better internally. They wouldn't even consider me these days for those jobs now, because my CV would make it obvious I'd be moving on asap, and it would be a waste of their time.
BUT - I really don't think this change will be applied to harass people like me. It certainly wasn't last time I claimed JSA, even though I'd been out of work with depression for more than a year.
It will be used to harass people lower down the economic ladder. And that's why politically it is a plus for HMG.
It isn't given many of them live in the redwall
Haven't we been through this before?
The new Tory voters in these northern seats will typically be the people with jobs who have recently bought new-build houses, who drive everywhere - if they're not old enough to be receiving their pension.
They won't be affected by this change. They will mostly applaud it.
They will if they lose their job, they would have to apply to be toilet cleaners and McDonald's staff after one month for example rather than the surveyors, middle managers, accountants, construction managers, police officers etc they were before.
They would actually be more affected by it than the low skilled
But you are a social conservative? surely people who are able to work should be contributing to society rather than being a burden on it.
So if they aren't earning money they are a burden on society and that isn't right.
SKS fans please explain As i forecast SKS peaked at 11.59 am on 19.1.22
Kaboom, Boris now slashes the Labour lead to under 5%!!
Well back into hung parliament territory again now
A no change poll is a "Kaboom" and a slashing? 🤦♂️
I thought you pretended to know polling and understand how it works, do you even know what the "(-)" after the poll shares means?
With all due respect, I don't think you're a polling expert at all, I just think you have a log of polls that suit your agenda and that you can cherrypick and pull out to your hearts content when it suits your interests to do so.
2 weeks ago Labour were 10 points ahead or more, now all the polls show Boris has slashed the Labour lead to under 5%.
Indeed on the Kantar poll today it would now be neck and neck after the new boundaries, Labour 284, Tories 273.
The most recent polls by pollster, for the regular pollsters, from Wikipedia:
Redfield & Wilton 7% Lab lead Kantar 4% Lab lead Survation 10% Lab lead Savanta ComRes 8% Lab lead Deltapoll 9% Lab lead YouGov 8% Lab lead Opinium 10% Lab lead
So far from all the polls showing the lead has been slashed to under 5%, the reality is that only Kantar shows that. All other pollsters show higher.
Incidentally Kantar's 4% Lab lead is the joint highest Lab lead they have ever had. So even that one's not slashed.
So your claim that the lead has been slashed to under 5% is 100% false and untrue - the only regular pollster showing the lead under 5% never had the lead higher than it in the first place, and all other pollsters leads are higher.
Bit touchy this morning there BartholomewRoberts.
Not one current poll has Labour over 10% ahead. 2 weeks ago most polls had Labour 10% ahead or more.
The latest poll even has the Labour lead under 5%.
Proper loyal Tories unlike you will now hold the line for Boris again
I just won't buy the bullshit you're selling. You have zero integrity it seems, and I do.
Blue on blue.
Anyone who feels the need to tell other people how much integrity they have, almost certainly doesn't.
SKS fans please explain As i forecast SKS peaked at 11.59 am on 19.1.22
Kaboom, Boris now slashes the Labour lead to under 5%!!
Well back into hung parliament territory again now
A no change poll is a "Kaboom" and a slashing? 🤦♂️
I thought you pretended to know polling and understand how it works, do you even know what the "(-)" after the poll shares means?
With all due respect, I don't think you're a polling expert at all, I just think you have a log of polls that suit your agenda and that you can cherrypick and pull out to your hearts content when it suits your interests to do so.
The Lab lead was 13 before last weeks PMQs the 3 polls since have the lead as 7,8,4 an average of 6.33 so basically halved
Is that with the same pollster?
No.
2 of the 3 showed a decrease in lead compared to last week the 3rd pollster had no poll since a month ago and reported no change since then
Yes, but as Bartholomew mentions below, there's no halving of leads with the same pollsters.
R&W was 13 last week and 7 this week
And 4 two weeks ago, and 3 three weeks ago.
The 13 is an outlier. It wasn't substantiated by either any other regular pollsters or by the same pollster.
A pollster polling every week will get outliers sometimes. All pollsters should and if they don't that should be a red flag that they're fiddling their data to avoid them.
Find out Now had the lead at 14%
I think their next poll will be about 7
So what do you think the average lead is now?
Find Out Now aren't a regular pollster who poll every month and they're again an exception not the norm. All the other regular pollsters had about 9-10% a week ago and now the regular pollsters seem to be saying 7-8%.
Doesn't Mike Smithson have a Golden Rule about selective eyesight?
"Disney says it is "consulting with members of the dwarfism community" on the film "to avoid reinforcing stereotypes from the original animated film"."
Given Snow White is a Latina, maybe we can change the title to "Snow Latinx and the seven vertically challenged humanoids".
And I see they have Israeli actress Gal Gadot as the Evil Queen. Surely Anti-Semitism in action and reinforcing racial stereotypes as Jewish people out to dominate the world?
I don't understand why they are remaking the film. Could they just... not? if they need to keep the licence or something surely there is another way than aiming for a big budget hit.
They're probably simply remaking it because they're remaking all their major classic animations as live actions and its been extremely successful and profitable for them.
The live action remakes of Aladdin, Dumbo, Beauty and the Beast, Lion King and Cinderella were all very good. I actually think the live action Dumbo is better than the original.
I doubt its about keeping the licence since they've done other films in recent years like Snow White and the Huntsman.
Dumbo was good, the rest were middling to poor. The Lion King in particular was awful compared to the original, it had no life, no spark. Just dull real life looking animals in a dramatised nature documentary.
Tested positive on LFT this AM, sore throat and runny nose. Gone for PCR this AM.
It was only a matter of time I suppose.
Hope it goes ok. I'm on day 4 of COVID, been mentally ok but spent the whole time lying in bed trying to get my day job done (i've been turning down video calls). Its been like a very bad flu episode, sore throat, chills, headache, dizziness, disorientation. There have been some worrying moments but it seems to now be evolving in to a heavy cough and cold, a bit more manageable. I started with the mindset that I would just carry on as normal and that the requirement to self isolate was an annoyance, but to be honest in the condition I am in, I wouldn't want to leave the house and I'm lucky my wife can pick up shopping and take my son to school (they keep testing negative on the daily LFT's). Obviously I won't try and give you any advice, other than best wishes and take care of yourself.
SKS fans please explain As i forecast SKS peaked at 11.59 am on 19.1.22
Kaboom, Boris now slashes the Labour lead to under 5%!!
Well back into hung parliament territory again now
A no change poll is a "Kaboom" and a slashing? 🤦♂️
I thought you pretended to know polling and understand how it works, do you even know what the "(-)" after the poll shares means?
With all due respect, I don't think you're a polling expert at all, I just think you have a log of polls that suit your agenda and that you can cherrypick and pull out to your hearts content when it suits your interests to do so.
2 weeks ago Labour were 10 points ahead or more, now all the polls show Boris has slashed the Labour lead to under 5%.
Indeed on the Kantar poll today it would now be neck and neck after the new boundaries, Labour 284, Tories 273.
The most recent polls by pollster, for the regular pollsters, from Wikipedia:
Redfield & Wilton 7% Lab lead Kantar 4% Lab lead Survation 10% Lab lead Savanta ComRes 8% Lab lead Deltapoll 9% Lab lead YouGov 8% Lab lead Opinium 10% Lab lead
So far from all the polls showing the lead has been slashed to under 5%, the reality is that only Kantar shows that. All other pollsters show higher.
Incidentally Kantar's 4% Lab lead is the joint highest Lab lead they have ever had. So even that one's not slashed.
So your claim that the lead has been slashed to under 5% is 100% false and untrue - the only regular pollster showing the lead under 5% never had the lead higher than it in the first place, and all other pollsters leads are higher.
Bit touchy this morning there BartholomewRoberts.
Not one current poll has Labour over 10% ahead. 2 weeks ago most polls had Labour 10% ahead or more.
The latest poll even has the Labour lead under 5%.
Proper loyal Tories unlike you will now hold the line for Boris again
Apologies if this has been pointed out. But in my sector, education, the timescale from application to closing date, to shortlist, interview, second interview, references, enhanced DBS to start date is longer than four weeks. Far longer last time I tried. I assume for some others it may be too. Edit. I notice it has.
When I was fresh out of university I applied for job A in the summer, job B in the early autumn and job C a few weeks later. (And lots of other jobs too, of course)
I had my first interview for job A before I applied for job C. Not sure exactly when I had the interviews for jobs B and C, but I was offered job B on my first day of job C, and had my second interview for job A during my second week at job C, which was my last week in that job, before starting job B the next week.
Was told informally at second interview for job A that I would be offered the job, but they had to have a meeting first to decide how much to offer me in pay before sending the formal offer.
I ended up working at job B for just over four months, while waiting for security clearance to start job A, which organisation I stayed at for more than a decade.
Jobs B and C only gave me the time of day because I was a fresh graduate, and so they thought they could have a look at me in a low level role before moving me to something better internally. They wouldn't even consider me these days for those jobs now, because my CV would make it obvious I'd be moving on asap, and it would be a waste of their time.
BUT - I really don't think this change will be applied to harass people like me. It certainly wasn't last time I claimed JSA, even though I'd been out of work with depression for more than a year.
It will be used to harass people lower down the economic ladder. And that's why politically it is a plus for HMG.
It isn't given many of them live in the redwall
Haven't we been through this before?
The new Tory voters in these northern seats will typically be the people with jobs who have recently bought new-build houses, who drive everywhere - if they're not old enough to be receiving their pension.
They won't be affected by this change. They will mostly applaud it.
They will if they lose their job, they would have to apply to be toilet cleaners and McDonald's staff after one month for example rather than the surveyors, middle managers, accountants, construction managers, police officers etc they were before.
They would actually be more affected by it than the low skilled
But you are a social conservative? surely people who are able to work should be contributing to society rather than being a burden on it.
So if they aren't earning money they are a burden on society and that isn't right.
I am a social conservative on things like abortion, moderate on gay marriage, an economic centrist/centre right.
This is not a socially conservative policy, it is an economically libertarian policy.
I support people being able to apply for jobs only in their skill area for 3 to 6 months at least, even if not forever while on welfare
The US are really not interested in giving Putin a victory to justify stepping back from the brink. No doubt some of our European friends will regard this as further warmongering by them.
Only way to deal with bullies is to take them on.
Horrible expression. Might be true here, but it's like the one about bullies being cowards. Some aren't, and you can be in for a world of pain if you think they are.
If you let them away with it you get teh world of pain in any case. Better to at least get some retaliation in.
Somebody posted a "six stages of a project" thing the other day and said we have reached the "Disillusionment" stage.
That seems about right to me. I am looking forward to Stage 3 next - "Panic"
DK Brown's "Stages of a Project"
- Enthusiasm - Disillusionment - Panic - The Search for the Guilty - The punishment of the Innocent - Praise and Honour for the Non-Participants
I suspect we will see 3-5 in a single hour as the Gray report comes out.
Boris's panicking will result in anyone no matter how junior being punished as he tries to protect himself.
It sounds like the watering down of the Gray report is underway. I have little expectation of it having any effect except to identity the sheep to be culled to save the Big Dog.
I am laying off a little on Sunak this morning.
Time and tide and all that. His moment may well be passing.
Personally, I have never rated him. He was an anonymous MP until elevated to Chancellor after which all he has done is to spend money at levels that would make a Corbynite blanche!
Exactly he has don enothing of note, however they are easy pleased on here.
Morning Malc. How's your lady wife now?
Hello OKC, she is a lot better , still getting some odd things every so often , all her bones aching and strange sensation with all the nerves on her head giving sharp pains. Not sure if connected. Her lungs are not 100% , as she cannot do anything like the exercise she used to but in grand scheme of things we cannot complain at all. Hope you and wife are well. Sun shining here today.
Often takes a while, my friend, especially when the years have passed. Then one morning one realises one has managed something that one thought one never would again. Best wishes.
This is where a leader like Macron would never allow something like this to happen and why I respect how he operates in France. Robust defence of free speech and free thought.
Don't the police have anything better to do, like investigating all those parties in No 10?
I don't understand where our supposedly right wing Home Secretary is in all of this, how have we got to a stage where thought crimes are being pursued by the police? Though maybe that's what she wants.
The police have long had a tendency to do this, all by themselves.
When a special edition of Charlie Hebdo was published as push back against the terrorist attack, some Police forces tried to get newsagents to give them lists of who'd bought it.
Imagine how 155,000 bereaved families feel looking at this.
...
Does anyone know who the braying bearded tory in this clip is? He has pretty much handed my vote to the LDs
J. Gullis, MP for Stoke-on-Trent. I linked to his diatribe against lefty snitches yesterday, and as i said then it's astounding to me what an inexhaustible supply the PCP has of these cnuts.
The PCP is not alone, the labour party has its fair share too.
For me, a key moment in the downfall of our civilisation was on election night in 2017, when Nick Clegg was succeeded by Jared O'Mara. Clegg delivered a stateman like resignation speech. O Mara, who runs nightclubs, then came forward and started ranting in to the microphone, cheered on by a rowdy mob of supporters.
Against this Jonathan Gullis is an intellectual giant, having spent 7 years as a teacher rising to head of year in a secondary school.
Ultimately most people in Parliament are either professional politicians, or have come from very average backgrounds and have not had any major levels of success in their careers. I guess that they are like many people posting on here. They are definetely not the brightest and the best. This is another reason why Keir Starmer is so exceptional.
I appreciate your nuanced posts, and I certainly don't have any time for O'Mara, but I think your last para is not quite right. I knew a great many intelligent MPs, very successful in previous careers, who were seriously interested in getting policy right. The problem was that talent in previous professions doesn't guarantee talent in the rough and tumble world of politics. There were quite a few people from business and lecturing who were frankly not very good at front bench combat. Conversely the front-benchers were focused on combat and had little time to debate policy. The reason I'm a fan of Michael Gove is that he's unusually a combination of active mind and combative politician. Starmer is another, I think, as you imply.
By contrast, take Oliver Letwin. A successful banker, I think, with excellent connections, a Brexiteer with an enquiring mind and a real commitment to honesty (and genuinely nice, which still matters). But as a combatant he was seen as dangerous, with major political clangers, and he was sidelined in favour of people with far less intellectual vigour.
The problem is how to find ways for the bright figures to engage usefully without being tripped up by our savage gotcha culture. The Select Committee system is the best bet, and the simple mechanism of allowing them to introduce legislation, or even be the channel for it, as in the US model, would engage the best minds more productively.
Absolutely.
People (and especially perhaps who knows chippy people on PB) misunderestimate the ability, hard work, sacrifice and dedication that is required to become an MP.
I can genuinely say that there is not one PB-er who wouldn't be destroyed in debate on just about any subject in politics. To become an MP (and don't you know it, Nick) you will have cut your teeth on selection process after debate after argument after discussion.
I don't agree with this at all. I've met three MP's, one in the course of work. One was extremely bright and able, able to think well beyond his role, another was bright but not extraordinary, and certainly not wildly quick in debate, and the other could only be described as a pompous fool.
"Disney says it is "consulting with members of the dwarfism community" on the film "to avoid reinforcing stereotypes from the original animated film"."
Given Snow White is a Latina, maybe we can change the title to "Snow Latinx and the seven vertically challenged humanoids".
And I see they have Israeli actress Gal Gadot as the Evil Queen. Surely Anti-Semitism in action and reinforcing racial stereotypes as Jewish people out to dominate the world?
I don't understand why they are remaking the film. Could they just... not? if they need to keep the licence or something surely there is another way than aiming for a big budget hit.
They're probably simply remaking it because they're remaking all their major classic animations as live actions and its been extremely successful and profitable for them.
The live action remakes of Aladdin, Dumbo, Beauty and the Beast, Lion King and Cinderella were all very good. I actually think the live action Dumbo is better than the original.
I doubt its about keeping the licence since they've done other films in recent years like Snow White and the Huntsman.
Dumbo was good, the rest were middling to poor. The Lion King in particular was awful compared to the original, it had no life, no spark. Just dull real life looking animals in a dramatised nature documentary.
Lion King was my least favourite of the remakes, which is a shame as its my second-favourite of the originals. Aladdin was my favourite Disney movie as a kid and I quite enjoyed the remake - I certainly wouldn't say its better than the original, but it was a good film and a pleasant family movie night.
Either way though, they've been popular so I fully expect Disney to keep going through their catalogue until they've done all the major ones or it ceases to be popular. Simple business decision.
For some of the very old movies like Dumbo, I think its got more potential to see how they update the story.
"Disney says it is "consulting with members of the dwarfism community" on the film "to avoid reinforcing stereotypes from the original animated film"."
Given Snow White is a Latina, maybe we can change the title to "Snow Latinx and the seven vertically challenged humanoids".
And I see they have Israeli actress Gal Gadot as the Evil Queen. Surely Anti-Semitism in action and reinforcing racial stereotypes as Jewish people out to dominate the world?
I don't understand why they are remaking the film. Could they just... not? if they need to keep the licence or something surely there is another way than aiming for a big budget hit.
They're probably simply remaking it because they're remaking all their major classic animations as live actions and its been extremely successful and profitable for them.
The live action remakes of Aladdin, Dumbo, Beauty and the Beast, Lion King and Cinderella were all very good. I actually think the live action Dumbo is better than the original.
I doubt its about keeping the licence since they've done other films in recent years like Snow White and the Huntsman.
Dumbo was good, the rest were middling to poor. The Lion King in particular was awful compared to the original, it had no life, no spark. Just dull real life looking animals in a dramatised nature documentary.
Aladdin was good, Beauty and Beast too (dude playing Gaston had a lot fun). Lion King cut off the best song and pretty meh, added nothing worthwhile, but worth watching once just for the animation.
SKS fans please explain As i forecast SKS peaked at 11.59 am on 19.1.22
Kaboom, Boris now slashes the Labour lead to under 5%!!
Well back into hung parliament territory again now
A no change poll is a "Kaboom" and a slashing? 🤦♂️
I thought you pretended to know polling and understand how it works, do you even know what the "(-)" after the poll shares means?
With all due respect, I don't think you're a polling expert at all, I just think you have a log of polls that suit your agenda and that you can cherrypick and pull out to your hearts content when it suits your interests to do so.
The Lab lead was 13 before last weeks PMQs the 3 polls since have the lead as 7,8,4 an average of 6.33 so basically halved
Is that with the same pollster?
No.
2 of the 3 showed a decrease in lead compared to last week the 3rd pollster had no poll since a month ago and reported no change since then
Yes, but as Bartholomew mentions below, there's no halving of leads with the same pollsters.
R&W was 13 last week and 7 this week
And 4 two weeks ago, and 3 three weeks ago.
The 13 is an outlier. It wasn't substantiated by either any other regular pollsters or by the same pollster.
A pollster polling every week will get outliers sometimes. All pollsters should and if they don't that should be a red flag that they're fiddling their data to avoid them.
Find out Now had the lead at 14%
I think their next poll will be about 7
So what do you think the average lead is now?
Find Out Now aren't a regular pollster who poll every month and they're again an exception not the norm. All the other regular pollsters had about 9-10% a week ago and now the regular pollsters seem to be saying 7-8%.
So it looks like the average has moved in by about 1-2% at the most which is basically margin of error.
So you want to exclude all the 13s and 14s and the 4 today is an outlier so lets exclude that too
SKS is a dud and the Polls will continue to narrow and revert to Tory leads in due course but we could exclude all polls from now on if you wish and pretend there is going yo be a Labour landslide
This is where a leader like Macron would never allow something like this to happen and why I respect how he operates in France. Robust defence of free speech and free thought.
Don't the police have anything better to do, like investigating all those parties in No 10?
I don't understand where our supposedly right wing Home Secretary is in all of this, how have we got to a stage where thought crimes are being pursued by the police? Though maybe that's what she wants.
The police have long had a tendency to do this, all by themselves.
When a special edition of Charlie Hebdo was published as push back against the terrorist attack, some Police forces tried to get newsagents to give them lists of who'd bought it.
I guess my point is that the Home Secretary should be repealing the laws that allow this kind of policing, but I guess it appeals to her authoritarian view that no one should be able to say anything unless specifically approved by her.
"Disney says it is "consulting with members of the dwarfism community" on the film "to avoid reinforcing stereotypes from the original animated film"."
Given Snow White is a Latina, maybe we can change the title to "Snow Latinx and the seven vertically challenged humanoids".
And I see they have Israeli actress Gal Gadot as the Evil Queen. Surely Anti-Semitism in action and reinforcing racial stereotypes as Jewish people out to dominate the world?
There was a very interesting phone in yesterday on 5Live about it.
Worth a listen to hear how much abuse people with dwarfism get. It really isn't a joke.
No, and that actually is a very good point. I certainly wasn't joking about people with dwarfism. It's more how Disney is twisting itself round to fit the cultural climate.
Mind you, as has been pointed out, Dinkleage didn't seem to have too many problems with the dwarf jokes on GoT
Times change. They wouldn't do "Song of the South" now either.
Somebody posted a "six stages of a project" thing the other day and said we have reached the "Disillusionment" stage.
That seems about right to me. I am looking forward to Stage 3 next - "Panic"
DK Brown's "Stages of a Project"
- Enthusiasm - Disillusionment - Panic - The Search for the Guilty - The punishment of the Innocent - Praise and Honour for the Non-Participants
I suspect we will see 3-5 in a single hour as the Gray report comes out.
Boris's panicking will result in anyone no matter how junior being punished as he tries to protect himself.
It sounds like the watering down of the Gray report is underway. I have little expectation of it having any effect except to identity the sheep to be culled to save the Big Dog.
If it is watered down it is the civil service unions work trying to protect their staff from being named, and not no10
It is suggested that it will be very bad for the civil servants in no 10 and Whitehall
I am sure it will be bad for them, but I am also sure that any political wiggleroom will be exploited to the maximum. If the wiggleroom can be increased by the correct sort of watering down then...
As the original supplier of the quoted stages of a project - it is a a favourite of mine....
The context was the HMS Captain saga. Where a ship was built against the advice of Chief Constructor (chief naval architect) of the Royal Navy. The ship rolled over and sank on the maiden voyage, killing nearly everyone on board. Including the designer....
- The Chief Constructor who had warned against the design was forced to resign. - His replacement was very nearly the naval architect for the shipyard that had mis-built the ship - the design was bad, but made worse by excess weight in construction...
On the junior people involved - everyone is trying to hide behind them.
The senior civil servants who are involved are trying to claim that it is really unfair on Doris the receptionist to bin her. Because if Doris goes, then Sir Reginald Fuckwit who was next in the conga line will get it in the neck.
The politicians will be doing the same with the junior SPADs....
Very interesting bit of history Mr M.
The history of the 19th cent Royal Navy is fascinating from a project management, technology, innovation, working culture, social changes (and many others) perspectives. There are lessons there for nearly every aspect of running things in todays world. There is even an early (and successful) usage of PFI!
The traditional view of a bunch of hidebound Admirals only interested in floggings and sails is rubbish - you could, in fact, argue that the RN was *too* keen on innovation. A considerable number of ships were built that were novel and utterly useless.
I believe the large number of mature oak trees in various parts of the southern UK is because in the early 1800's the Admiralty became concerned at the potential lack of wood probable in the early to mid 1900's, and ensured the planting of oaks. Overtaken by technology, of course, but evidence of long-term planning.
The Wikipedia graphical summary of the opinion polls has been updated with the latest polls. What does it show?
There has been a very slight uptick in Tory support in the most recent polls, but you really have to zoom in to see it. The Labour share continues to increase, so it looks like the lead also continues to increase.
It looks like there's been a marked decline in the share for the Reform Party - perhaps Johnson has succeeded in defending his right flank at the expense of ceding ground to Labour in the centre.
If the Tories do make a recovery we will see it here. So far, not much sign of it.
It looks like the Tory vote could be solidifying at 34% for now. We'll see what happens at the local elections, the Tories could still end up level pegging in the NEV.
We'll see if Labour can sustain 5-10+% leads over a long period of time or not. The longest run of continuous Labour leads was March 2012 to July 2013.
"Disney says it is "consulting with members of the dwarfism community" on the film "to avoid reinforcing stereotypes from the original animated film"."
Given Snow White is a Latina, maybe we can change the title to "Snow Latinx and the seven vertically challenged humanoids".
And I see they have Israeli actress Gal Gadot as the Evil Queen. Surely Anti-Semitism in action and reinforcing racial stereotypes as Jewish people out to dominate the world?
I don't understand why they are remaking the film. Could they just... not? if they need to keep the licence or something surely there is another way than aiming for a big budget hit.
They're probably simply remaking it because they're remaking all their major classic animations as live actions and its been extremely successful and profitable for them.
The live action remakes of Aladdin, Dumbo, Beauty and the Beast, Lion King and Cinderella were all very good. I actually think the live action Dumbo is better than the original.
I doubt its about keeping the licence since they've done other films in recent years like Snow White and the Huntsman.
Dumbo was good, the rest were middling to poor. The Lion King in particular was awful compared to the original, it had no life, no spark. Just dull real life looking animals in a dramatised nature documentary.
Lion King was my least favourite of the remakes, which is a shame as its my second-favourite of the originals. Aladdin was my favourite Disney movie as a kid and I quite enjoyed the remake - I certainly wouldn't say its better than the original, but it was a good film and a pleasant family movie night.
Either way though, they've been popular so I fully expect Disney to keep going through their catalogue until they've done all the major ones or it ceases to be popular. Simple business decision.
For some of the very old movies like Dumbo, I think its got more potential to see how they update the story.
Aladdin, unlike others, actually had decent straight to video sequels, but I doubt theyll redo those as not as much nostalgia value.
Somebody posted a "six stages of a project" thing the other day and said we have reached the "Disillusionment" stage.
That seems about right to me. I am looking forward to Stage 3 next - "Panic"
DK Brown's "Stages of a Project"
- Enthusiasm - Disillusionment - Panic - The Search for the Guilty - The punishment of the Innocent - Praise and Honour for the Non-Participants
I suspect we will see 3-5 in a single hour as the Gray report comes out.
Boris's panicking will result in anyone no matter how junior being punished as he tries to protect himself.
It sounds like the watering down of the Gray report is underway. I have little expectation of it having any effect except to identity the sheep to be culled to save the Big Dog.
If it is watered down it is the civil service unions work trying to protect their staff from being named, and not no10
It is suggested that it will be very bad for the civil servants in no 10 and Whitehall
I am sure it will be bad for them, but I am also sure that any political wiggleroom will be exploited to the maximum. If the wiggleroom can be increased by the correct sort of watering down then...
As the original supplier of the quoted stages of a project - it is a a favourite of mine....
The context was the HMS Captain saga. Where a ship was built against the advice of Chief Constructor (chief naval architect) of the Royal Navy. The ship rolled over and sank on the maiden voyage, killing nearly everyone on board. Including the designer....
- The Chief Constructor who had warned against the design was forced to resign. - His replacement was very nearly the naval architect for the shipyard that had mis-built the ship - the design was bad, but made worse by excess weight in construction...
On the junior people involved - everyone is trying to hide behind them.
The senior civil servants who are involved are trying to claim that it is really unfair on Doris the receptionist to bin her. Because if Doris goes, then Sir Reginald Fuckwit who was next in the conga line will get it in the neck.
The politicians will be doing the same with the junior SPADs....
Very interesting bit of history Mr M.
The history of the 19th cent Royal Navy is fascinating from a project management, technology, innovation, working culture, social changes (and many others) perspectives. There are lessons there for nearly every aspect of running things in todays world. There is even an early (and successful) usage of PFI!
The traditional view of a bunch of hidebound Admirals only interested in floggings and sails is rubbish - you could, in fact, argue that the RN was *too* keen on innovation. A considerable number of ships were built that were novel and utterly useless.
Entirely agree. A few years ago I was visiting Chatham Dockyard with a friend and we had a poke around the old sawmill in the NE corner. No indication or anything on site at the time - just derelict cleared space plus the building. But it turned out to have been a highly modern operation with travelling gantry crane going out to the timber dump area and bringing tree trunks back into the sawmill building, all rational flow and power. Even placed uphill from the rest of the yard to make it that much easier to move the sawn timber to where it was needed.
In 1814.
By IKB's dad Marc. Fresh from arguably the first powered mass production line in the world (the Block Mills in Portsmouth Dockyard).
This is where a leader like Macron would never allow something like this to happen and why I respect how he operates in France. Robust defence of free speech and free thought.
Don't the police have anything better to do, like investigating all those parties in No 10?
I don't understand where our supposedly right wing Home Secretary is in all of this, how have we got to a stage where thought crimes are being pursued by the police? Though maybe that's what she wants.
The police have long had a tendency to do this, all by themselves.
When a special edition of Charlie Hebdo was published as push back against the terrorist attack, some Police forces tried to get newsagents to give them lists of who'd bought it.
I missed that. Gods. Another brilliant move from my local police. Glad they moved on to success re Operation Midland (yes that was the Met, but Wiltshire involved at various bits)
This is where a leader like Macron would never allow something like this to happen and why I respect how he operates in France. Robust defence of free speech and free thought.
Don't the police have anything better to do, like investigating all those parties in No 10?
I don't understand where our supposedly right wing Home Secretary is in all of this, how have we got to a stage where thought crimes are being pursued by the police? Though maybe that's what she wants.
The police have long had a tendency to do this, all by themselves.
When a special edition of Charlie Hebdo was published as push back against the terrorist attack, some Police forces tried to get newsagents to give them lists of who'd bought it.
I guess my point is that the Home Secretary should be repealing the laws that allow this kind of policing, but I guess it appeals to her authoritarian view that no one should be able to say anything unless specifically approved by her.
It reveals that the tory commitment to 'freedom of speech and thought' is actually a sham, at least on the part of the government. On the one hand, they allow this type of policing of 'hate' to happen. On the other, they bring in laws that seek to hamper investigative journalism that may result in problems for them; as well as placing legal limitations on legitimate protest. I've said repeatedly that you can expect nothing in terms of meaningful action from the government on this type of problem, the only people you can rely on is the backbenchers in the Conservative Party, and even then it is a rear guard action watering down bad laws bought forward by the government.
"Disney says it is "consulting with members of the dwarfism community" on the film "to avoid reinforcing stereotypes from the original animated film"."
Given Snow White is a Latina, maybe we can change the title to "Snow Latinx and the seven vertically challenged humanoids".
And I see they have Israeli actress Gal Gadot as the Evil Queen. Surely Anti-Semitism in action and reinforcing racial stereotypes as Jewish people out to dominate the world?
I don't understand why they are remaking the film. Could they just... not? if they need to keep the licence or something surely there is another way than aiming for a big budget hit.
The cinemas are just coming back and Disney is playing safe, remaking what it thought would be merely an updated version of a loved classic remade for the modern age. I think China played a big part in their thinking - this would have been a film that would have done well there (and globally) and, crucially, hasn't got anything in it that would offend the Chinese market and get the censors there to block it.
The box office situation in China is pretty precarious for Hollywood, not even mega hits like Spider-Man have been given release dates despite Chinese audiences wanting to see it. Shang-Chi had a whole bunch of pro-China bullshit in it and still got rejected because Simu Liu said something that could be potentially construed as anti-China. My reading of it is that Hollywood is set to give up on chasing Chinese money and make their films less China friendly and if the CCP don't like it then who gives a shit because they weren't approving specifically China sensitive movies either. Deadline did a pretty good piece on it and one of the things they pointed out is that the Hollywood studio only gets 10% of the gross in China compared to ~50% in the US and ~40% in Europe, it can be a lot of money, but now the compromises required to get approval are so high it doesn't seem worthwhile.
SKS fans please explain As i forecast SKS peaked at 11.59 am on 19.1.22
Kaboom, Boris now slashes the Labour lead to under 5%!!
Well back into hung parliament territory again now
A no change poll is a "Kaboom" and a slashing? 🤦♂️
I thought you pretended to know polling and understand how it works, do you even know what the "(-)" after the poll shares means?
With all due respect, I don't think you're a polling expert at all, I just think you have a log of polls that suit your agenda and that you can cherrypick and pull out to your hearts content when it suits your interests to do so.
The Lab lead was 13 before last weeks PMQs the 3 polls since have the lead as 7,8,4 an average of 6.33 so basically halved
Is that with the same pollster?
No.
2 of the 3 showed a decrease in lead compared to last week the 3rd pollster had no poll since a month ago and reported no change since then
Yes, but as Bartholomew mentions below, there's no halving of leads with the same pollsters.
R&W was 13 last week and 7 this week
And 4 two weeks ago, and 3 three weeks ago.
The 13 is an outlier. It wasn't substantiated by either any other regular pollsters or by the same pollster.
A pollster polling every week will get outliers sometimes. All pollsters should and if they don't that should be a red flag that they're fiddling their data to avoid them.
Find out Now had the lead at 14%
I think their next poll will be about 7
So what do you think the average lead is now?
Find Out Now aren't a regular pollster who poll every month and they're again an exception not the norm. All the other regular pollsters had about 9-10% a week ago and now the regular pollsters seem to be saying 7-8%.
So it looks like the average has moved in by about 1-2% at the most which is basically margin of error.
So you want to exclude all the 13s and 14s and the 4 today is an outlier so lets exclude that too
SKS is a dud and the Polls will continue to narrow and revert to Tory leads in due course but we could exclude all polls from now on if you wish and pretend there is going yo be a Labour landslide
Will you be joining Peace and Justice Party when the Jeremy and the People's Pidcock finally decide they will have to go it alone? Rachael Swindon thinks 100k members in a week, would likely gain assets like Claudia Webbe and Zarah Sultana who face deselection and perhaps Barry Gardiner and Ricky Dicky Ding Dong Burgon who are in search of a brain.
On Pidcock and collapse of Corbyn left within Labour:
Aaron Bastani @AaronBastani · 31m It’s astounding, I’ve never seen a political movement end up in such a terrible position from such a good one. Political volatility is one thing but it’s extraordinary.
His earlier tweet sums up the problem. Pidcocks resignation is reflective of the left abandoning the power and influence they have, in the administrative structure of the labour party. They are just giving up and walking away.
Sorry to hear that. Get better! Check that oximeter
I’m pretty sure I had Omicron in early December - or Covid anyway - very possibly a 2nd dose - and yes it was bad. I was delirious for maybe 3-4 days, sleeping - fitfully - for 20 hours at a time. My tests were neg but I had loss of sense of smell for 24 hours, in a way I have never experienced before. Most odd. Must have been Covid
Weirdly there would be spells of a few hours when I felt almost completely fine, and could get up, even drive, then it came back. I was drained for a week, had a lingering cough for 3 weeks, now I feel just fine (but fat). No Long Covid, thank the Lord
good luck. I agree this is with us now for the rest of our lives, very likely. A new nasty flu which will return time and again, but we will learn to live with it, as we do with flu
Yes. Sobering to think how much misery some dicking about in a Chinese lab has caused and will continue to cause.
It is an extraordinary example of chaos theory.
Man eats bat in Wuhan, world economy and society jams solid.
Must have been a bat out of hell.
Should have stuck to meat loaf.
Oh very good. A simple like doesn't do that justice.
I would do anything for love, but I won’t do bat’.
It would not be cricket.
Your cricket mad Dr Y. I wouldn’t be surprised if the only thing you enjoyed more was playing on your organ. 🙂
Well, that's a hard one to answer.
It’s played with very hard balls.
I think we should stop there.
First I am just going to post something else, just to ensure that post isn’t my last ever post.
I think you missed the pun.
But then, it's a pun that would only really work for a fellow organist. So @El_Capitano woukd certainly get it, but maybe not anyone else.
Oh, very good @ydoethur . Only belatedly noticing my notifications lighting up, but like so many others my mind (and attention to PB) is currently befugged by Omicron The Destroyer Of Actually Trying To Get Any Work Done.
Still, on the bright side, it means I don't have to play for Sunday's service, and Shi*e Jesus Shi*e was on the hymn list. Our top soprano is convinced that I caught covid deliberately to avoid it.
"Disney says it is "consulting with members of the dwarfism community" on the film "to avoid reinforcing stereotypes from the original animated film"."
Given Snow White is a Latina, maybe we can change the title to "Snow Latinx and the seven vertically challenged humanoids".
And I see they have Israeli actress Gal Gadot as the Evil Queen. Surely Anti-Semitism in action and reinforcing racial stereotypes as Jewish people out to dominate the world?
I don't understand why they are remaking the film. Could they just... not? if they need to keep the licence or something surely there is another way than aiming for a big budget hit.
They're probably simply remaking it because they're remaking all their major classic animations as live actions and its been extremely successful and profitable for them.
The live action remakes of Aladdin, Dumbo, Beauty and the Beast, Lion King and Cinderella were all very good. I actually think the live action Dumbo is better than the original.
I doubt its about keeping the licence since they've done other films in recent years like Snow White and the Huntsman.
Dumbo was good, the rest were middling to poor. The Lion King in particular was awful compared to the original, it had no life, no spark. Just dull real life looking animals in a dramatised nature documentary.
Lion King was my least favourite of the remakes, which is a shame as its my second-favourite of the originals. Aladdin was my favourite Disney movie as a kid and I quite enjoyed the remake - I certainly wouldn't say its better than the original, but it was a good film and a pleasant family movie night.
Either way though, they've been popular so I fully expect Disney to keep going through their catalogue until they've done all the major ones or it ceases to be popular. Simple business decision.
For some of the very old movies like Dumbo, I think its got more potential to see how they update the story.
Aladdin, unlike others, actually had decent straight to video sequels, but I doubt theyll redo those as not as much nostalgia value.
Indeed, which is a bit of a shame, since they were good stories.
The Return of Jafah was a very fun movie, even though it was very cheaply made, which is quite obvious now rewatching it. It'd be nice to get that done 'properly' nowadays, but its never going to happen.
The success of the series led to them putting more effort and even getting Robin Williams back for the Forty Thieves at least.
On the polls I think there's been a natural swing back from the extremes. Entirely predictable. With a change of leader this could be developed and given Starmer's only too obvious weaknesses would give hope for the Tories. I'm much less convinced this will happen unless Boris departs the scene.
Somebody posted a "six stages of a project" thing the other day and said we have reached the "Disillusionment" stage.
That seems about right to me. I am looking forward to Stage 3 next - "Panic"
DK Brown's "Stages of a Project"
- Enthusiasm - Disillusionment - Panic - The Search for the Guilty - The punishment of the Innocent - Praise and Honour for the Non-Participants
I suspect we will see 3-5 in a single hour as the Gray report comes out.
Boris's panicking will result in anyone no matter how junior being punished as he tries to protect himself.
It sounds like the watering down of the Gray report is underway. I have little expectation of it having any effect except to identity the sheep to be culled to save the Big Dog.
If it is watered down it is the civil service unions work trying to protect their staff from being named, and not no10
It is suggested that it will be very bad for the civil servants in no 10 and Whitehall
I am sure it will be bad for them, but I am also sure that any political wiggleroom will be exploited to the maximum. If the wiggleroom can be increased by the correct sort of watering down then...
As the original supplier of the quoted stages of a project - it is a a favourite of mine....
The context was the HMS Captain saga. Where a ship was built against the advice of Chief Constructor (chief naval architect) of the Royal Navy. The ship rolled over and sank on the maiden voyage, killing nearly everyone on board. Including the designer....
- The Chief Constructor who had warned against the design was forced to resign. - His replacement was very nearly the naval architect for the shipyard that had mis-built the ship - the design was bad, but made worse by excess weight in construction...
On the junior people involved - everyone is trying to hide behind them.
The senior civil servants who are involved are trying to claim that it is really unfair on Doris the receptionist to bin her. Because if Doris goes, then Sir Reginald Fuckwit who was next in the conga line will get it in the neck.
The politicians will be doing the same with the junior SPADs....
Very interesting bit of history Mr M.
The history of the 19th cent Royal Navy is fascinating from a project management, technology, innovation, working culture, social changes (and many others) perspectives. There are lessons there for nearly every aspect of running things in todays world. There is even an early (and successful) usage of PFI!
The traditional view of a bunch of hidebound Admirals only interested in floggings and sails is rubbish - you could, in fact, argue that the RN was *too* keen on innovation. A considerable number of ships were built that were novel and utterly useless.
Entirely agree. A few years ago I was visiting Chatham Dockyard with a friend and we had a poke around the old sawmill in the NE corner. No indication or anything on site at the time - just derelict cleared space plus the building. But it turned out to have been a highly modern operation with travelling gantry crane going out to the timber dump area and bringing tree trunks back into the sawmill building, all rational flow and power. Even placed uphill from the rest of the yard to make it that much easier to move the sawn timber to where it was needed.
In 1814.
By IKB's dad Marc. Fresh from arguably the first powered mass production line in the world (the Block Mills in Portsmouth Dockyard).
See the very early adoption of the steam engine and then the propeller. See also triple expansion and the steam turbine.
One failure was spending a fortune on Babbage's machines - which never delivered any usable data. The end came when Astronomer Royal pointed out that it would cost orders of magnitude less to hire lots of mathematicians to check the results of doing it manually.
It wasn't about being against progress - Babbage's machines required very, very expensive levels of precision (for the time) to work. Less technically demanding calculators were built and used. And later, the RN was the first to use mechanical computers in gun laying.
On the polls I think there's been a natural swing back from the extremes. Entirely predictable. With a change of leader this could be developed and given Starmer's only too obvious weaknesses would give hope for the Tories. I'm much less convinced this will happen unless Boris departs the scene.
All alternatives bar Boris poll worse v Starmer than Boris except Sunak.
With this UC announcement today Sunak seems to be morphing into Osborne plus Brexit, not sure that is the way to hold the redwall and nor will he win back Remainers either who voted for Cameron but have not voted Tory since
SKS fans please explain As i forecast SKS peaked at 11.59 am on 19.1.22
Kaboom, Boris now slashes the Labour lead to under 5%!!
Well back into hung parliament territory again now
A no change poll is a "Kaboom" and a slashing? 🤦♂️
I thought you pretended to know polling and understand how it works, do you even know what the "(-)" after the poll shares means?
With all due respect, I don't think you're a polling expert at all, I just think you have a log of polls that suit your agenda and that you can cherrypick and pull out to your hearts content when it suits your interests to do so.
The Lab lead was 13 before last weeks PMQs the 3 polls since have the lead as 7,8,4 an average of 6.33 so basically halved
Is that with the same pollster?
No.
2 of the 3 showed a decrease in lead compared to last week the 3rd pollster had no poll since a month ago and reported no change since then
Yes, but as Bartholomew mentions below, there's no halving of leads with the same pollsters.
R&W was 13 last week and 7 this week
And 4 two weeks ago, and 3 three weeks ago.
The 13 is an outlier. It wasn't substantiated by either any other regular pollsters or by the same pollster.
A pollster polling every week will get outliers sometimes. All pollsters should and if they don't that should be a red flag that they're fiddling their data to avoid them.
Find out Now had the lead at 14%
I think their next poll will be about 7
So what do you think the average lead is now?
Find Out Now aren't a regular pollster who poll every month and they're again an exception not the norm. All the other regular pollsters had about 9-10% a week ago and now the regular pollsters seem to be saying 7-8%.
So it looks like the average has moved in by about 1-2% at the most which is basically margin of error.
So you want to exclude all the 13s and 14s and the 4 today is an outlier so lets exclude that too
SKS is a dud and the Polls will continue to narrow and revert to Tory leads in due course but we could exclude all polls from now on if you wish and pretend there is going yo be a Labour landslide
Will you be joining Peace and Justice Party when the Jeremy and the People's Pidcock finally decide they will have to go it alone? Rachael Swindon thinks 100k members in a week, would likely gain assets like Claudia Webbe and Zarah Sultana who face deselection and perhaps Barry Gardiner and Ricky Dicky Ding Dong Burgon who are in search of a brain.
What do you think? Could be exciting.
I think SKS is a useless nonentity and Jezza will stand and win as an independent if not readmitted
Lab will lose again under SKS
Doubt Harpins wet dream about a new Party will happen
This is where a leader like Macron would never allow something like this to happen and why I respect how he operates in France. Robust defence of free speech and free thought.
Don't the police have anything better to do, like investigating all those parties in No 10?
I don't understand where our supposedly right wing Home Secretary is in all of this, how have we got to a stage where thought crimes are being pursued by the police? Though maybe that's what she wants.
The police have long had a tendency to do this, all by themselves.
When a special edition of Charlie Hebdo was published as push back against the terrorist attack, some Police forces tried to get newsagents to give them lists of who'd bought it.
I guess my point is that the Home Secretary should be repealing the laws that allow this kind of policing, but I guess it appeals to her authoritarian view that no one should be able to say anything unless specifically approved by her.
It reveals that the tory commitment to 'freedom of speech and thought' is actually a sham, at least on the part of the government. On the one hand, they allow this type of policing of 'hate' to happen. On the other, they bring in laws that seek to hamper investigative journalism that may result in problems for them; as well as placing legal limitations on legitimate protest. I've said repeatedly that you can expect nothing in terms of meaningful action from the government on this type of problem, the only people you can rely on is the backbenchers in the Conservative Party, and even then it is a rear guard action watering down bad laws bought forward by the government.
The problem is that nearly anything can be described as "needing to be investigated"
It's back to police culture - see @Cyclefree on that subject.
It is actually best to accept that we don't really have free speech and whole areas of public debate are off limits, even in a semi-anonymous forum such as this. I would not even attempt to discuss some of the ideas advanced by Eric Zemmour other than in the most private of settings, because under the legal framework we have, I would be putting myself at risk of professional ruin and even criminal sanction. This is not because I believe I am a racist, but the risk of misinterpretation is too high. It is not a good thing at all, but a situation that we essentially have to live with, and in my estimation, there is no chance whatsoever of it changing in the near future. To do so, you would need to undo 30 years of law relating to 'equalities', and there is zero political appetite for this.
Sound the klaxon! Incidental hospitalisations overtake non-incidentals for the first time ever in that series. Quick calculation suggests that something like 80% of incoming daily admissions are either not *for* COVID or not staying overnight so not very serious.
We've got a huge update for reinfections coming on Monday that is going to get everyone panicked for nothing, yet this data which there is already an existing series for is tucked away in a weekly release on the NHS website that no one can easily find. This data should be reflected in the dashboard stats for England at least. There's currently only 6k people in hospital *for* COVID right now in England, that's still dropping pretty rapidly, if one were to go by the dashboard stats that makes it seem as though 14k people are in hospital for COVID on the same day, more than double.
SKS fans please explain As i forecast SKS peaked at 11.59 am on 19.1.22
Kaboom, Boris now slashes the Labour lead to under 5%!!
Well back into hung parliament territory again now
A no change poll is a "Kaboom" and a slashing? 🤦♂️
I thought you pretended to know polling and understand how it works, do you even know what the "(-)" after the poll shares means?
With all due respect, I don't think you're a polling expert at all, I just think you have a log of polls that suit your agenda and that you can cherrypick and pull out to your hearts content when it suits your interests to do so.
The Lab lead was 13 before last weeks PMQs the 3 polls since have the lead as 7,8,4 an average of 6.33 so basically halved
Is that with the same pollster?
No.
2 of the 3 showed a decrease in lead compared to last week the 3rd pollster had no poll since a month ago and reported no change since then
Yes, but as Bartholomew mentions below, there's no halving of leads with the same pollsters.
R&W was 13 last week and 7 this week
And 4 two weeks ago, and 3 three weeks ago.
The 13 is an outlier. It wasn't substantiated by either any other regular pollsters or by the same pollster.
A pollster polling every week will get outliers sometimes. All pollsters should and if they don't that should be a red flag that they're fiddling their data to avoid them.
Find out Now had the lead at 14%
I think their next poll will be about 7
So what do you think the average lead is now?
Find Out Now aren't a regular pollster who poll every month and they're again an exception not the norm. All the other regular pollsters had about 9-10% a week ago and now the regular pollsters seem to be saying 7-8%.
So it looks like the average has moved in by about 1-2% at the most which is basically margin of error.
So you want to exclude all the 13s and 14s and the 4 today is an outlier so lets exclude that too
SKS is a dud and the Polls will continue to narrow and revert to Tory leads in due course but we could exclude all polls from now on if you wish and pretend there is going yo be a Labour landslide
Will you be joining Peace and Justice Party when the Jeremy and the People's Pidcock finally decide they will have to go it alone? Rachael Swindon thinks 100k members in a week, would likely gain assets like Claudia Webbe and Zarah Sultana who face deselection and perhaps Barry Gardiner and Ricky Dicky Ding Dong Burgon who are in search of a brain.
What do you think? Could be exciting.
I think SKS is a useless nonentity and Jezza will stand and win as an independent if not readmitted
Lab will lose again under SKS
Doubt Harpins wet dream about a new Party will happen
It'll be interesting to see what happens. I can see Corbyn winning as an independent and he'd have an army of people who would canvas for him. It will be stick or twist for Momentum and all the remaining Labour members who see the party as the enemy, and even for MPs like Ding Dong who spend half their time campaigning for Jeremy.
You can't be a Labour member and campaign for the defeat of the Labour candidate. So whether we get a spin-out party or not there will be a Starmer vs the Left moment. You think Starmer makes Labour less electable, I think the loons like Ding Dong do. As the split will now have to happen I guess we will find out one way or another.
It is actually best to accept that we don't really have free speech and whole areas of public debate are off limits, even in a semi-anonymous forum such as this. I would not even attempt to discuss some of the ideas advanced by Eric Zemmour other than in the most private of settings, because under the legal framework we have, I would be putting myself at risk of professional ruin and even criminal sanction. This is not because I believe I am a racist, but the risk of misinterpretation is too high. It is not a good thing at all, but a situation that we essentially have to live with, and in my estimation, there is no chance whatsoever of it changing in the near future. To do so, you would need to undo 30 years of law relating to 'equalities', and there is zero political appetite for this.
Zemmour is a racist and quite open about it. He is making a play for those who feel that that French National Front (yes, re-named) had abandoned them.
Sound the klaxon! Incidental hospitalisations overtake non-incidentals for the first time ever in that series. Quick calculation suggests that something like 80% of incoming daily admissions are either not *for* COVID or not staying overnight so not very serious.
We've got a huge update for reinfections coming on Monday that is going to get everyone panicked for nothing, yet this data which there is already an existing series for is tucked away in a weekly release on the NHS website that no one can easily find. This data should be reflected in the dashboard stats for England at least. There's currently only 6k people in hospital *for* COVID right now in England, that's still dropping pretty rapidly, if one were to go by the dashboard stats that makes it seem as though 14k people are in hospital for COVID on the same day, more than double.
That reminds me - what kind of biscuits are we serving at the Monday panic? Also, someone needs to get some tonic for @Leon's gin.
Simon Calder @SimonCalder · 27m EXCLUSIVE Taxpayers spent £500,000 pounds so the foreign secretary didn't have to fly to, from and within Australia on @Qantas . Instead, @trussliz travelled 22,000 miles by private government Airbus A321, creating almost 500 tonnes of CO2 emissions. #COP26
It is actually best to accept that we don't really have free speech and whole areas of public debate are off limits, even in a semi-anonymous forum such as this. I would not even attempt to discuss some of the ideas advanced by Eric Zemmour other than in the most private of settings, because under the legal framework we have, I would be putting myself at risk of professional ruin and even criminal sanction. This is not because I believe I am a racist, but the risk of misinterpretation is too high. It is not a good thing at all, but a situation that we essentially have to live with, and in my estimation, there is no chance whatsoever of it changing in the near future. To do so, you would need to undo 30 years of law relating to 'equalities', and there is zero political appetite for this.
Almost impossible to find such topics discussed anywhere on the Internet these days.
This is where a leader like Macron would never allow something like this to happen and why I respect how he operates in France. Robust defence of free speech and free thought.
Don't the police have anything better to do, like investigating all those parties in No 10?
I don't understand where our supposedly right wing Home Secretary is in all of this, how have we got to a stage where thought crimes are being pursued by the police? Though maybe that's what she wants.
The police have long had a tendency to do this, all by themselves.
When a special edition of Charlie Hebdo was published as push back against the terrorist attack, some Police forces tried to get newsagents to give them lists of who'd bought it.
I guess my point is that the Home Secretary should be repealing the laws that allow this kind of policing, but I guess it appeals to her authoritarian view that no one should be able to say anything unless specifically approved by her.
It reveals that the tory commitment to 'freedom of speech and thought' is actually a sham, at least on the part of the government. On the one hand, they allow this type of policing of 'hate' to happen. On the other, they bring in laws that seek to hamper investigative journalism that may result in problems for them; as well as placing legal limitations on legitimate protest. I've said repeatedly that you can expect nothing in terms of meaningful action from the government on this type of problem, the only people you can rely on is the backbenchers in the Conservative Party, and even then it is a rear guard action watering down bad laws bought forward by the government.
The problem is that nearly anything can be described as "needing to be investigated"
It's back to police culture - see @Cyclefree on that subject.
The bigger issue is fundamentally with the laws themselves, specifically the encroachment of law in to areas that were traditionally regarded as the private sphere. It is inevitable that the police will have to adapt to that. By getting angered at the way the police target anti-trans activists, people are really angry at the underlying laws which protect trans people from what they percieve as harrassment.
Simon Calder @SimonCalder · 27m EXCLUSIVE Taxpayers spent £500,000 pounds so the foreign secretary didn't have to fly to, from and within Australia on @Qantas. Instead, @trussliz travelled 22,000 miles by private government Airbus A321, creating almost 500 tonnes of CO2 emissions. #COP26
Yeeeouch. That's not going to do her leadership campaign much good.
SKS fans please explain As i forecast SKS peaked at 11.59 am on 19.1.22
Kaboom, Boris now slashes the Labour lead to under 5%!!
Well back into hung parliament territory again now
A no change poll is a "Kaboom" and a slashing? 🤦♂️
I thought you pretended to know polling and understand how it works, do you even know what the "(-)" after the poll shares means?
With all due respect, I don't think you're a polling expert at all, I just think you have a log of polls that suit your agenda and that you can cherrypick and pull out to your hearts content when it suits your interests to do so.
The Lab lead was 13 before last weeks PMQs the 3 polls since have the lead as 7,8,4 an average of 6.33 so basically halved
Is that with the same pollster?
No.
2 of the 3 showed a decrease in lead compared to last week the 3rd pollster had no poll since a month ago and reported no change since then
Yes, but as Bartholomew mentions below, there's no halving of leads with the same pollsters.
R&W was 13 last week and 7 this week
And 4 two weeks ago, and 3 three weeks ago.
The 13 is an outlier. It wasn't substantiated by either any other regular pollsters or by the same pollster.
A pollster polling every week will get outliers sometimes. All pollsters should and if they don't that should be a red flag that they're fiddling their data to avoid them.
Find out Now had the lead at 14%
I think their next poll will be about 7
So what do you think the average lead is now?
Find Out Now aren't a regular pollster who poll every month and they're again an exception not the norm. All the other regular pollsters had about 9-10% a week ago and now the regular pollsters seem to be saying 7-8%.
So it looks like the average has moved in by about 1-2% at the most which is basically margin of error.
So you want to exclude all the 13s and 14s and the 4 today is an outlier so lets exclude that too
SKS is a dud and the Polls will continue to narrow and revert to Tory leads in due course but we could exclude all polls from now on if you wish and pretend there is going yo be a Labour landslide
Will you be joining Peace and Justice Party when the Jeremy and the People's Pidcock finally decide they will have to go it alone? Rachael Swindon thinks 100k members in a week, would likely gain assets like Claudia Webbe and Zarah Sultana who face deselection and perhaps Barry Gardiner and Ricky Dicky Ding Dong Burgon who are in search of a brain.
What do you think? Could be exciting.
I think SKS is a useless nonentity and Jezza will stand and win as an independent if not readmitted
Lab will lose again under SKS
Doubt Harpins wet dream about a new Party will happen
It'll be interesting to see what happens. I can see Corbyn winning as an independent and he'd have an army of people who would canvas for him. It will be stick or twist for Momentum and all the remaining Labour members who see the party as the enemy, and even for MPs like Ding Dong who spend half their time campaigning for Jeremy.
You can't be a Labour member and campaign for the defeat of the Labour candidate. So whether we get a spin-out party or not there will be a Starmer vs the Left moment. You think Starmer makes Labour less electable, I think the loons like Ding Dong do. As the split will now have to happen I guess we will find out one way or another.
Depends if the leadership overreaches and actually expels Corbyn which would be inflammatory IMO. If the leadership is sensible they would offer Islington N a choice of left wing local replacements (after Corbyn is barred from standing) so everybody can move on.
It is actually best to accept that we don't really have free speech and whole areas of public debate are off limits, even in a semi-anonymous forum such as this. I would not even attempt to discuss some of the ideas advanced by Eric Zemmour other than in the most private of settings, because under the legal framework we have, I would be putting myself at risk of professional ruin and even criminal sanction. This is not because I believe I am a racist, but the risk of misinterpretation is too high. It is not a good thing at all, but a situation that we essentially have to live with, and in my estimation, there is no chance whatsoever of it changing in the near future. To do so, you would need to undo 30 years of law relating to 'equalities', and there is zero political appetite for this.
Zemmour is a racist and quite open about it. He is making a play for those who feel that that French National Front (yes, re-named) had abandoned them.
Being openly racist was not a particularly unusual political position well within my lifetime. Most politicians are a bit more reticent nowadays though, and keep it more in the sub text.
This is where a leader like Macron would never allow something like this to happen and why I respect how he operates in France. Robust defence of free speech and free thought.
Don't the police have anything better to do, like investigating all those parties in No 10?
I don't understand where our supposedly right wing Home Secretary is in all of this, how have we got to a stage where thought crimes are being pursued by the police? Though maybe that's what she wants.
The police have long had a tendency to do this, all by themselves.
When a special edition of Charlie Hebdo was published as push back against the terrorist attack, some Police forces tried to get newsagents to give them lists of who'd bought it.
I missed that. Gods. Another brilliant move from my local police. Glad they moved on to success re Operation Midland (yes that was the Met, but Wiltshire involved at various bits)
If the police raid my flat and use the books I own as test of character, I'm fucked.
Somebody posted a "six stages of a project" thing the other day and said we have reached the "Disillusionment" stage.
That seems about right to me. I am looking forward to Stage 3 next - "Panic"
DK Brown's "Stages of a Project"
- Enthusiasm - Disillusionment - Panic - The Search for the Guilty - The punishment of the Innocent - Praise and Honour for the Non-Participants
I suspect we will see 3-5 in a single hour as the Gray report comes out.
Boris's panicking will result in anyone no matter how junior being punished as he tries to protect himself.
It sounds like the watering down of the Gray report is underway. I have little expectation of it having any effect except to identity the sheep to be culled to save the Big Dog.
If it is watered down it is the civil service unions work trying to protect their staff from being named, and not no10
It is suggested that it will be very bad for the civil servants in no 10 and Whitehall
I am sure it will be bad for them, but I am also sure that any political wiggleroom will be exploited to the maximum. If the wiggleroom can be increased by the correct sort of watering down then...
As the original supplier of the quoted stages of a project - it is a a favourite of mine....
The context was the HMS Captain saga. Where a ship was built against the advice of Chief Constructor (chief naval architect) of the Royal Navy. The ship rolled over and sank on the maiden voyage, killing nearly everyone on board. Including the designer....
- The Chief Constructor who had warned against the design was forced to resign. - His replacement was very nearly the naval architect for the shipyard that had mis-built the ship - the design was bad, but made worse by excess weight in construction...
On the junior people involved - everyone is trying to hide behind them.
The senior civil servants who are involved are trying to claim that it is really unfair on Doris the receptionist to bin her. Because if Doris goes, then Sir Reginald Fuckwit who was next in the conga line will get it in the neck.
The politicians will be doing the same with the junior SPADs....
Very interesting bit of history Mr M.
The history of the 19th cent Royal Navy is fascinating from a project management, technology, innovation, working culture, social changes (and many others) perspectives. There are lessons there for nearly every aspect of running things in todays world. There is even an early (and successful) usage of PFI!
The traditional view of a bunch of hidebound Admirals only interested in floggings and sails is rubbish - you could, in fact, argue that the RN was *too* keen on innovation. A considerable number of ships were built that were novel and utterly useless.
Entirely agree. A few years ago I was visiting Chatham Dockyard with a friend and we had a poke around the old sawmill in the NE corner. No indication or anything on site at the time - just derelict cleared space plus the building. But it turned out to have been a highly modern operation with travelling gantry crane going out to the timber dump area and bringing tree trunks back into the sawmill building, all rational flow and power. Even placed uphill from the rest of the yard to make it that much easier to move the sawn timber to where it was needed.
In 1814.
By IKB's dad Marc. Fresh from arguably the first powered mass production line in the world (the Block Mills in Portsmouth Dockyard).
See the very early adoption of the steam engine and then the propeller. See also triple expansion and the steam turbine.
One failure was spending a fortune on Babbage's machines - which never delivered any usable data. The end came when Astronomer Royal pointed out that it would cost orders of magnitude less to hire lots of mathematicians to check the results of doing it manually.
It wasn't about being against progress - Babbage's machines required very, very expensive levels of precision (for the time) to work. Less technically demanding calculators were built and used. And later, the RN was the first to use mechanical computers in gun laying.
That leads to one of my favourite connections tree.
Joseph Whitworth designed the surface plate table and standardised screw threads (for nuts and bolts). He also designed a machine capable of measuring tolerances down to a millionth of an inch. His standard for screw threads became the British Standard Whitworth (which I think was the world's first engineering standard).
When Babbage was making his Difference Engine, he used engineer Joseph Clement to build it. The engine required massive precision, and parts could not be farmed out to other engineers. The cost of making the parts caused Clement and Babbage to fall out.
At the time, Clement had a young man working for him. A certain Joseph Whitworth. It's not hard to work out where Babbage got the idea that precision in engineering might be a good thing.
That connection means Babbage's computing work was much more influential in progressing engineering than it ever was in computing.
It is actually best to accept that we don't really have free speech and whole areas of public debate are off limits, even in a semi-anonymous forum such as this. I would not even attempt to discuss some of the ideas advanced by Eric Zemmour other than in the most private of settings, because under the legal framework we have, I would be putting myself at risk of professional ruin and even criminal sanction. This is not because I believe I am a racist, but the risk of misinterpretation is too high. It is not a good thing at all, but a situation that we essentially have to live with, and in my estimation, there is no chance whatsoever of it changing in the near future. To do so, you would need to undo 30 years of law relating to 'equalities', and there is zero political appetite for this.
You overstate your case, I think. Zemmour is standing for President in France, which I don't believe has significantly different equality laws than the UK. Sounds like free speech to me. I can find out about Zemmour's views, including the ones I personally find unpalatable, very easily from the British media and sources on the Internet. Zemmour has, I believe, at least one conviction for inciting racial hatred under French law; but I don't have a problem with having a law against inciting racial hatred - do you?
This is where a leader like Macron would never allow something like this to happen and why I respect how he operates in France. Robust defence of free speech and free thought.
Don't the police have anything better to do, like investigating all those parties in No 10?
I don't understand where our supposedly right wing Home Secretary is in all of this, how have we got to a stage where thought crimes are being pursued by the police? Though maybe that's what she wants.
The police have long had a tendency to do this, all by themselves.
When a special edition of Charlie Hebdo was published as push back against the terrorist attack, some Police forces tried to get newsagents to give them lists of who'd bought it.
I guess my point is that the Home Secretary should be repealing the laws that allow this kind of policing, but I guess it appeals to her authoritarian view that no one should be able to say anything unless specifically approved by her.
It reveals that the tory commitment to 'freedom of speech and thought' is actually a sham, at least on the part of the government. On the one hand, they allow this type of policing of 'hate' to happen. On the other, they bring in laws that seek to hamper investigative journalism that may result in problems for them; as well as placing legal limitations on legitimate protest. I've said repeatedly that you can expect nothing in terms of meaningful action from the government on this type of problem, the only people you can rely on is the backbenchers in the Conservative Party, and even then it is a rear guard action watering down bad laws bought forward by the government.
The problem is that nearly anything can be described as "needing to be investigated"
It's back to police culture - see @Cyclefree on that subject.
The bigger issue is fundamentally with the laws themselves, specifically the encroachment of law in to areas that were traditionally regarded as the private sphere. It is inevitable that the police will have to adapt to that. By getting angered at the way the police target anti-trans activists, people are really angry at the underlying laws which protect trans people from what they percieve as harrassment.
Back in the day, lists were being kept of who subscribed to various hard-left (and hard-right) publications. Historically this goes back to before the foundation of the Peelian police.
This is where a leader like Macron would never allow something like this to happen and why I respect how he operates in France. Robust defence of free speech and free thought.
Don't the police have anything better to do, like investigating all those parties in No 10?
I don't understand where our supposedly right wing Home Secretary is in all of this, how have we got to a stage where thought crimes are being pursued by the police? Though maybe that's what she wants.
The police have long had a tendency to do this, all by themselves.
When a special edition of Charlie Hebdo was published as push back against the terrorist attack, some Police forces tried to get newsagents to give them lists of who'd bought it.
I missed that. Gods. Another brilliant move from my local police. Glad they moved on to success re Operation Midland (yes that was the Met, but Wiltshire involved at various bits)
If the police raid my flat and use the books I own as test of character, I'm fucked.
SKS fans please explain As i forecast SKS peaked at 11.59 am on 19.1.22
Kaboom, Boris now slashes the Labour lead to under 5%!!
Well back into hung parliament territory again now
A no change poll is a "Kaboom" and a slashing? 🤦♂️
I thought you pretended to know polling and understand how it works, do you even know what the "(-)" after the poll shares means?
With all due respect, I don't think you're a polling expert at all, I just think you have a log of polls that suit your agenda and that you can cherrypick and pull out to your hearts content when it suits your interests to do so.
The Lab lead was 13 before last weeks PMQs the 3 polls since have the lead as 7,8,4 an average of 6.33 so basically halved
Is that with the same pollster?
No.
2 of the 3 showed a decrease in lead compared to last week the 3rd pollster had no poll since a month ago and reported no change since then
Yes, but as Bartholomew mentions below, there's no halving of leads with the same pollsters.
R&W was 13 last week and 7 this week
And 4 two weeks ago, and 3 three weeks ago.
The 13 is an outlier. It wasn't substantiated by either any other regular pollsters or by the same pollster.
A pollster polling every week will get outliers sometimes. All pollsters should and if they don't that should be a red flag that they're fiddling their data to avoid them.
Find out Now had the lead at 14%
I think their next poll will be about 7
So what do you think the average lead is now?
Find Out Now aren't a regular pollster who poll every month and they're again an exception not the norm. All the other regular pollsters had about 9-10% a week ago and now the regular pollsters seem to be saying 7-8%.
So it looks like the average has moved in by about 1-2% at the most which is basically margin of error.
So you want to exclude all the 13s and 14s and the 4 today is an outlier so lets exclude that too
SKS is a dud and the Polls will continue to narrow and revert to Tory leads in due course but we could exclude all polls from now on if you wish and pretend there is going yo be a Labour landslide
Will you be joining Peace and Justice Party when the Jeremy and the People's Pidcock finally decide they will have to go it alone? Rachael Swindon thinks 100k members in a week, would likely gain assets like Claudia Webbe and Zarah Sultana who face deselection and perhaps Barry Gardiner and Ricky Dicky Ding Dong Burgon who are in search of a brain.
What do you think? Could be exciting.
I think SKS is a useless nonentity and Jezza will stand and win as an independent if not readmitted
Lab will lose again under SKS
Doubt Harpins wet dream about a new Party will happen
It'll be interesting to see what happens. I can see Corbyn winning as an independent and he'd have an army of people who would canvas for him. It will be stick or twist for Momentum and all the remaining Labour members who see the party as the enemy, and even for MPs like Ding Dong who spend half their time campaigning for Jeremy.
You can't be a Labour member and campaign for the defeat of the Labour candidate. So whether we get a spin-out party or not there will be a Starmer vs the Left moment. You think Starmer makes Labour less electable, I think the loons like Ding Dong do. As the split will now have to happen I guess we will find out one way or another.
Depends if the leadership overreaches and actually expels Corbyn which would be inflammatory IMO. If the leadership is sensible they would offer Islington N a choice of left wing local replacements (after Corbyn is barred from standing) so everybody can move on.
I would personally avoid that fight, by letting him back in, but with a warning. It's not as if other Corbynites aren't unwilling to sit on the back benches, and Corbyn himself did right through New Labour years.
This is where a leader like Macron would never allow something like this to happen and why I respect how he operates in France. Robust defence of free speech and free thought.
Don't the police have anything better to do, like investigating all those parties in No 10?
I don't understand where our supposedly right wing Home Secretary is in all of this, how have we got to a stage where thought crimes are being pursued by the police? Though maybe that's what she wants.
The police have long had a tendency to do this, all by themselves.
When a special edition of Charlie Hebdo was published as push back against the terrorist attack, some Police forces tried to get newsagents to give them lists of who'd bought it.
I missed that. Gods. Another brilliant move from my local police. Glad they moved on to success re Operation Midland (yes that was the Met, but Wiltshire involved at various bits)
If the police raid my flat and use the books I own as test of character, I'm fucked.
This is where a leader like Macron would never allow something like this to happen and why I respect how he operates in France. Robust defence of free speech and free thought.
Don't the police have anything better to do, like investigating all those parties in No 10?
I don't understand where our supposedly right wing Home Secretary is in all of this, how have we got to a stage where thought crimes are being pursued by the police? Though maybe that's what she wants.
The police have long had a tendency to do this, all by themselves.
When a special edition of Charlie Hebdo was published as push back against the terrorist attack, some Police forces tried to get newsagents to give them lists of who'd bought it.
I missed that. Gods. Another brilliant move from my local police. Glad they moved on to success re Operation Midland (yes that was the Met, but Wiltshire involved at various bits)
If the police raid my flat and use the books I own as test of character, I'm fucked.
Own two by Dan Brown.
I own 7! And a Thomas Knox.
I would probably be lucky unless the cops are heavily into Maths, Physics and Science stuff.
Somebody posted a "six stages of a project" thing the other day and said we have reached the "Disillusionment" stage.
That seems about right to me. I am looking forward to Stage 3 next - "Panic"
DK Brown's "Stages of a Project"
- Enthusiasm - Disillusionment - Panic - The Search for the Guilty - The punishment of the Innocent - Praise and Honour for the Non-Participants
I suspect we will see 3-5 in a single hour as the Gray report comes out.
Boris's panicking will result in anyone no matter how junior being punished as he tries to protect himself.
It sounds like the watering down of the Gray report is underway. I have little expectation of it having any effect except to identity the sheep to be culled to save the Big Dog.
If it is watered down it is the civil service unions work trying to protect their staff from being named, and not no10
It is suggested that it will be very bad for the civil servants in no 10 and Whitehall
I am sure it will be bad for them, but I am also sure that any political wiggleroom will be exploited to the maximum. If the wiggleroom can be increased by the correct sort of watering down then...
As the original supplier of the quoted stages of a project - it is a a favourite of mine....
The context was the HMS Captain saga. Where a ship was built against the advice of Chief Constructor (chief naval architect) of the Royal Navy. The ship rolled over and sank on the maiden voyage, killing nearly everyone on board. Including the designer....
- The Chief Constructor who had warned against the design was forced to resign. - His replacement was very nearly the naval architect for the shipyard that had mis-built the ship - the design was bad, but made worse by excess weight in construction...
On the junior people involved - everyone is trying to hide behind them.
The senior civil servants who are involved are trying to claim that it is really unfair on Doris the receptionist to bin her. Because if Doris goes, then Sir Reginald Fuckwit who was next in the conga line will get it in the neck.
The politicians will be doing the same with the junior SPADs....
Very interesting bit of history Mr M.
The history of the 19th cent Royal Navy is fascinating from a project management, technology, innovation, working culture, social changes (and many others) perspectives. There are lessons there for nearly every aspect of running things in todays world. There is even an early (and successful) usage of PFI!
The traditional view of a bunch of hidebound Admirals only interested in floggings and sails is rubbish - you could, in fact, argue that the RN was *too* keen on innovation. A considerable number of ships were built that were novel and utterly useless.
Entirely agree. A few years ago I was visiting Chatham Dockyard with a friend and we had a poke around the old sawmill in the NE corner. No indication or anything on site at the time - just derelict cleared space plus the building. But it turned out to have been a highly modern operation with travelling gantry crane going out to the timber dump area and bringing tree trunks back into the sawmill building, all rational flow and power. Even placed uphill from the rest of the yard to make it that much easier to move the sawn timber to where it was needed.
In 1814.
By IKB's dad Marc. Fresh from arguably the first powered mass production line in the world (the Block Mills in Portsmouth Dockyard).
See the very early adoption of the steam engine and then the propeller. See also triple expansion and the steam turbine.
One failure was spending a fortune on Babbage's machines - which never delivered any usable data. The end came when Astronomer Royal pointed out that it would cost orders of magnitude less to hire lots of mathematicians to check the results of doing it manually.
It wasn't about being against progress - Babbage's machines required very, very expensive levels of precision (for the time) to work. Less technically demanding calculators were built and used. And later, the RN was the first to use mechanical computers in gun laying.
That leads to one of my favourite connections tree.
Joseph Whitworth designed the surface plate table and standardised screw threads (for nuts and bolts). He also designed a machine capable of measuring tolerances down to a millionth of an inch. His standard for screw threads became the British Standard Whitworth (which I think was the world's first engineering standard).
When Babbage was making his Difference Engine, he used engineer Joseph Clement to build it. The engine required massive precision, and parts could not be farmed out to other engineers. The cost of making the parts caused Clement and Babbage to fall out.
At the time, Clement had a young man working for him. A certain Joseph Whitworth. It's not hard to work out where Babbage got the idea that precision in engineering might be a good thing.
That connection means Babbage's computing work was much more influential in progressing engineering than it ever was in computing.
My shotgun barrels late c19th say they are made of Whitworth's fluid compressed steel.
Somebody posted a "six stages of a project" thing the other day and said we have reached the "Disillusionment" stage.
That seems about right to me. I am looking forward to Stage 3 next - "Panic"
DK Brown's "Stages of a Project"
- Enthusiasm - Disillusionment - Panic - The Search for the Guilty - The punishment of the Innocent - Praise and Honour for the Non-Participants
I suspect we will see 3-5 in a single hour as the Gray report comes out.
Boris's panicking will result in anyone no matter how junior being punished as he tries to protect himself.
It sounds like the watering down of the Gray report is underway. I have little expectation of it having any effect except to identity the sheep to be culled to save the Big Dog.
If it is watered down it is the civil service unions work trying to protect their staff from being named, and not no10
It is suggested that it will be very bad for the civil servants in no 10 and Whitehall
I am sure it will be bad for them, but I am also sure that any political wiggleroom will be exploited to the maximum. If the wiggleroom can be increased by the correct sort of watering down then...
As the original supplier of the quoted stages of a project - it is a a favourite of mine....
The context was the HMS Captain saga. Where a ship was built against the advice of Chief Constructor (chief naval architect) of the Royal Navy. The ship rolled over and sank on the maiden voyage, killing nearly everyone on board. Including the designer....
- The Chief Constructor who had warned against the design was forced to resign. - His replacement was very nearly the naval architect for the shipyard that had mis-built the ship - the design was bad, but made worse by excess weight in construction...
On the junior people involved - everyone is trying to hide behind them.
The senior civil servants who are involved are trying to claim that it is really unfair on Doris the receptionist to bin her. Because if Doris goes, then Sir Reginald Fuckwit who was next in the conga line will get it in the neck.
The politicians will be doing the same with the junior SPADs....
Very interesting bit of history Mr M.
The history of the 19th cent Royal Navy is fascinating from a project management, technology, innovation, working culture, social changes (and many others) perspectives. There are lessons there for nearly every aspect of running things in todays world. There is even an early (and successful) usage of PFI!
The traditional view of a bunch of hidebound Admirals only interested in floggings and sails is rubbish - you could, in fact, argue that the RN was *too* keen on innovation. A considerable number of ships were built that were novel and utterly useless.
Entirely agree. A few years ago I was visiting Chatham Dockyard with a friend and we had a poke around the old sawmill in the NE corner. No indication or anything on site at the time - just derelict cleared space plus the building. But it turned out to have been a highly modern operation with travelling gantry crane going out to the timber dump area and bringing tree trunks back into the sawmill building, all rational flow and power. Even placed uphill from the rest of the yard to make it that much easier to move the sawn timber to where it was needed.
In 1814.
By IKB's dad Marc. Fresh from arguably the first powered mass production line in the world (the Block Mills in Portsmouth Dockyard).
See the very early adoption of the steam engine and then the propeller. See also triple expansion and the steam turbine.
One failure was spending a fortune on Babbage's machines - which never delivered any usable data. The end came when Astronomer Royal pointed out that it would cost orders of magnitude less to hire lots of mathematicians to check the results of doing it manually.
It wasn't about being against progress - Babbage's machines required very, very expensive levels of precision (for the time) to work. Less technically demanding calculators were built and used. And later, the RN was the first to use mechanical computers in gun laying.
That leads to one of my favourite connections tree.
Joseph Whitworth designed the surface plate table and standardised screw threads (for nuts and bolts). He also designed a machine capable of measuring tolerances down to a millionth of an inch. His standard for screw threads became the British Standard Whitworth (which I think was the world's first engineering standard).
When Babbage was making his Difference Engine, he used engineer Joseph Clement to build it. The engine required massive precision, and parts could not be farmed out to other engineers. The cost of making the parts caused Clement and Babbage to fall out.
At the time, Clement had a young man working for him. A certain Joseph Whitworth. It's not hard to work out where Babbage got the idea that precision in engineering might be a good thing.
That connection means Babbage's computing work was much more influential in progressing engineering than it ever was in computing.
If you read between the lines, both Clement & Whitworth took advantage of Babbage to build their businesses. Whitworth built several machine shops out of the Babbage machine money...
Babbage was well aware of the precision requirement at the start
Somebody posted a "six stages of a project" thing the other day and said we have reached the "Disillusionment" stage.
That seems about right to me. I am looking forward to Stage 3 next - "Panic"
DK Brown's "Stages of a Project"
- Enthusiasm - Disillusionment - Panic - The Search for the Guilty - The punishment of the Innocent - Praise and Honour for the Non-Participants
I suspect we will see 3-5 in a single hour as the Gray report comes out.
Boris's panicking will result in anyone no matter how junior being punished as he tries to protect himself.
It sounds like the watering down of the Gray report is underway. I have little expectation of it having any effect except to identity the sheep to be culled to save the Big Dog.
If it is watered down it is the civil service unions work trying to protect their staff from being named, and not no10
It is suggested that it will be very bad for the civil servants in no 10 and Whitehall
I am sure it will be bad for them, but I am also sure that any political wiggleroom will be exploited to the maximum. If the wiggleroom can be increased by the correct sort of watering down then...
As the original supplier of the quoted stages of a project - it is a a favourite of mine....
The context was the HMS Captain saga. Where a ship was built against the advice of Chief Constructor (chief naval architect) of the Royal Navy. The ship rolled over and sank on the maiden voyage, killing nearly everyone on board. Including the designer....
- The Chief Constructor who had warned against the design was forced to resign. - His replacement was very nearly the naval architect for the shipyard that had mis-built the ship - the design was bad, but made worse by excess weight in construction...
On the junior people involved - everyone is trying to hide behind them.
The senior civil servants who are involved are trying to claim that it is really unfair on Doris the receptionist to bin her. Because if Doris goes, then Sir Reginald Fuckwit who was next in the conga line will get it in the neck.
The politicians will be doing the same with the junior SPADs....
Very interesting bit of history Mr M.
The history of the 19th cent Royal Navy is fascinating from a project management, technology, innovation, working culture, social changes (and many others) perspectives. There are lessons there for nearly every aspect of running things in todays world. There is even an early (and successful) usage of PFI!
The traditional view of a bunch of hidebound Admirals only interested in floggings and sails is rubbish - you could, in fact, argue that the RN was *too* keen on innovation. A considerable number of ships were built that were novel and utterly useless.
I believe Drachinifel's made the point in the past that until the early 1900s, warships were the most complex machines built by man. They were incredibly complex systems.
It makes sense that project management would also be complex.
Simon Calder @SimonCalder · 27m EXCLUSIVE Taxpayers spent £500,000 pounds so the foreign secretary didn't have to fly to, from and within Australia on @Qantas. Instead, @trussliz travelled 22,000 miles by private government Airbus A321, creating almost 500 tonnes of CO2 emissions. #COP26
Yeeeouch. That's not going to do her leadership campaign much good.
Yep. More one rule for them, larging it up at taxpayers expense, and another for us plebs.
This is where a leader like Macron would never allow something like this to happen and why I respect how he operates in France. Robust defence of free speech and free thought.
Don't the police have anything better to do, like investigating all those parties in No 10?
I don't understand where our supposedly right wing Home Secretary is in all of this, how have we got to a stage where thought crimes are being pursued by the police? Though maybe that's what she wants.
According to what she said after the Miller case, it is the complete opposite of what she wants. But words and actions are not always compatible with this government, as we know. The police need challenging when they act like this. In Gwent they recently arrested and held for hours a disabled woman who was putting up stickers protesting about domestic violence against women.
One must always be careful about finding out all the facts as newspaper reports are not always accurate or complete. But the Miller case does show that the police can go too far in seeking to police thought and threaten people over non-existent crimes.
This is where a leader like Macron would never allow something like this to happen and why I respect how he operates in France. Robust defence of free speech and free thought.
Don't the police have anything better to do, like investigating all those parties in No 10?
I don't understand where our supposedly right wing Home Secretary is in all of this, how have we got to a stage where thought crimes are being pursued by the police? Though maybe that's what she wants.
The police have long had a tendency to do this, all by themselves.
When a special edition of Charlie Hebdo was published as push back against the terrorist attack, some Police forces tried to get newsagents to give them lists of who'd bought it.
I missed that. Gods. Another brilliant move from my local police. Glad they moved on to success re Operation Midland (yes that was the Met, but Wiltshire involved at various bits)
If the police raid my flat and use the books I own as test of character, I'm fucked.
Own two by Dan Brown.
I own 7! And a Thomas Knox.
Off to the gulag with you. The Knox probably leads to 10 years in isolation.
Simon Calder @SimonCalder · 27m EXCLUSIVE Taxpayers spent £500,000 pounds so the foreign secretary didn't have to fly to, from and within Australia on @Qantas . Instead, @trussliz travelled 22,000 miles by private government Airbus A321, creating almost 500 tonnes of CO2 emissions. #COP26
First question - how many passengers were on the plane? I’ll take a random guess at at least 50, in which case £10k each, not a million miles away from business class on scheduled airlines.
Second question - have any of the journalists complaining tried to book a flight to Australia any time recently? They’re all way oversubscribed thanks to a lot of people trying to get back home there, with almost no-one leaving the country on the outbound legs.
Somebody posted a "six stages of a project" thing the other day and said we have reached the "Disillusionment" stage.
That seems about right to me. I am looking forward to Stage 3 next - "Panic"
DK Brown's "Stages of a Project"
- Enthusiasm - Disillusionment - Panic - The Search for the Guilty - The punishment of the Innocent - Praise and Honour for the Non-Participants
I suspect we will see 3-5 in a single hour as the Gray report comes out.
Boris's panicking will result in anyone no matter how junior being punished as he tries to protect himself.
It sounds like the watering down of the Gray report is underway. I have little expectation of it having any effect except to identity the sheep to be culled to save the Big Dog.
I am laying off a little on Sunak this morning.
Time and tide and all that. His moment may well be passing.
Personally, I have never rated him. He was an anonymous MP until elevated to Chancellor after which all he has done is to spend money at levels that would make a Corbynite blanche!
Exactly he has don enothing of note, however they are easy pleased on here.
Morning Malc. How's your lady wife now?
Hello OKC, she is a lot better , still getting some odd things every so often , all her bones aching and strange sensation with all the nerves on her head giving sharp pains. Not sure if connected. Her lungs are not 100% , as she cannot do anything like the exercise she used to but in grand scheme of things we cannot complain at all. Hope you and wife are well. Sun shining here today.
Somebody posted a "six stages of a project" thing the other day and said we have reached the "Disillusionment" stage.
That seems about right to me. I am looking forward to Stage 3 next - "Panic"
DK Brown's "Stages of a Project"
- Enthusiasm - Disillusionment - Panic - The Search for the Guilty - The punishment of the Innocent - Praise and Honour for the Non-Participants
I suspect we will see 3-5 in a single hour as the Gray report comes out.
Boris's panicking will result in anyone no matter how junior being punished as he tries to protect himself.
It sounds like the watering down of the Gray report is underway. I have little expectation of it having any effect except to identity the sheep to be culled to save the Big Dog.
If it is watered down it is the civil service unions work trying to protect their staff from being named, and not no10
It is suggested that it will be very bad for the civil servants in no 10 and Whitehall
I am sure it will be bad for them, but I am also sure that any political wiggleroom will be exploited to the maximum. If the wiggleroom can be increased by the correct sort of watering down then...
As the original supplier of the quoted stages of a project - it is a a favourite of mine....
The context was the HMS Captain saga. Where a ship was built against the advice of Chief Constructor (chief naval architect) of the Royal Navy. The ship rolled over and sank on the maiden voyage, killing nearly everyone on board. Including the designer....
- The Chief Constructor who had warned against the design was forced to resign. - His replacement was very nearly the naval architect for the shipyard that had mis-built the ship - the design was bad, but made worse by excess weight in construction...
On the junior people involved - everyone is trying to hide behind them.
The senior civil servants who are involved are trying to claim that it is really unfair on Doris the receptionist to bin her. Because if Doris goes, then Sir Reginald Fuckwit who was next in the conga line will get it in the neck.
The politicians will be doing the same with the junior SPADs....
Very interesting bit of history Mr M.
The history of the 19th cent Royal Navy is fascinating from a project management, technology, innovation, working culture, social changes (and many others) perspectives. There are lessons there for nearly every aspect of running things in todays world. There is even an early (and successful) usage of PFI!
The traditional view of a bunch of hidebound Admirals only interested in floggings and sails is rubbish - you could, in fact, argue that the RN was *too* keen on innovation. A considerable number of ships were built that were novel and utterly useless.
Entirely agree. A few years ago I was visiting Chatham Dockyard with a friend and we had a poke around the old sawmill in the NE corner. No indication or anything on site at the time - just derelict cleared space plus the building. But it turned out to have been a highly modern operation with travelling gantry crane going out to the timber dump area and bringing tree trunks back into the sawmill building, all rational flow and power. Even placed uphill from the rest of the yard to make it that much easier to move the sawn timber to where it was needed.
In 1814.
By IKB's dad Marc. Fresh from arguably the first powered mass production line in the world (the Block Mills in Portsmouth Dockyard).
See the very early adoption of the steam engine and then the propeller. See also triple expansion and the steam turbine.
One failure was spending a fortune on Babbage's machines - which never delivered any usable data. The end came when Astronomer Royal pointed out that it would cost orders of magnitude less to hire lots of mathematicians to check the results of doing it manually.
It wasn't about being against progress - Babbage's machines required very, very expensive levels of precision (for the time) to work. Less technically demanding calculators were built and used. And later, the RN was the first to use mechanical computers in gun laying.
That leads to one of my favourite connections tree.
Joseph Whitworth designed the surface plate table and standardised screw threads (for nuts and bolts). He also designed a machine capable of measuring tolerances down to a millionth of an inch. His standard for screw threads became the British Standard Whitworth (which I think was the world's first engineering standard).
When Babbage was making his Difference Engine, he used engineer Joseph Clement to build it. The engine required massive precision, and parts could not be farmed out to other engineers. The cost of making the parts caused Clement and Babbage to fall out.
At the time, Clement had a young man working for him. A certain Joseph Whitworth. It's not hard to work out where Babbage got the idea that precision in engineering might be a good thing.
That connection means Babbage's computing work was much more influential in progressing engineering than it ever was in computing.
My shotgun barrels late c19th say they are made of Whitworth's fluid compressed steel.
Whitworth was also the person who introduced cold hammered polygonal rifling as a thing for precision rifles.
It is actually best to accept that we don't really have free speech and whole areas of public debate are off limits, even in a semi-anonymous forum such as this. I would not even attempt to discuss some of the ideas advanced by Eric Zemmour other than in the most private of settings, because under the legal framework we have, I would be putting myself at risk of professional ruin and even criminal sanction. This is not because I believe I am a racist, but the risk of misinterpretation is too high. It is not a good thing at all, but a situation that we essentially have to live with, and in my estimation, there is no chance whatsoever of it changing in the near future. To do so, you would need to undo 30 years of law relating to 'equalities', and there is zero political appetite for this.
Zemmour is a racist and quite open about it. He is making a play for those who feel that that French National Front (yes, re-named) had abandoned them.
Being openly racist was not a particularly unusual political position well within my lifetime. Most politicians are a bit more reticent nowadays though, and keep it more in the sub text.
All I will say on Zemmour, is the main reason why I wouldn't vote for him were I to be eligible to is because of his policy on removing the citizenship of and deporting dual nationals who are convicted of crimes - which is definetly racist and abhorrent, but only in the same way as similar polices enacted by our own government are. The avoidance of any debate on the wider issues he raises about multiculturalism - it is typically immediately closed down on the grounds of implied racism - is not a positive thing, or the sign of a healthy public sphere. It is the sign of big problems to come.
This is where a leader like Macron would never allow something like this to happen and why I respect how he operates in France. Robust defence of free speech and free thought.
Don't the police have anything better to do, like investigating all those parties in No 10?
I don't understand where our supposedly right wing Home Secretary is in all of this, how have we got to a stage where thought crimes are being pursued by the police? Though maybe that's what she wants.
The police have long had a tendency to do this, all by themselves.
When a special edition of Charlie Hebdo was published as push back against the terrorist attack, some Police forces tried to get newsagents to give them lists of who'd bought it.
I missed that. Gods. Another brilliant move from my local police. Glad they moved on to success re Operation Midland (yes that was the Met, but Wiltshire involved at various bits)
If the police raid my flat and use the books I own as test of character, I'm fucked.
Own two by Dan Brown.
I own 7! And a Thomas Knox.
Do to the Thomas Knox books what I have done with the Twilight novels I own.
Lord almighty, the things I had to fake to have a relationship, saying that Bella and Edward was the greatest love story in history was close to the top.
Somebody posted a "six stages of a project" thing the other day and said we have reached the "Disillusionment" stage.
That seems about right to me. I am looking forward to Stage 3 next - "Panic"
DK Brown's "Stages of a Project"
- Enthusiasm - Disillusionment - Panic - The Search for the Guilty - The punishment of the Innocent - Praise and Honour for the Non-Participants
I suspect we will see 3-5 in a single hour as the Gray report comes out.
Boris's panicking will result in anyone no matter how junior being punished as he tries to protect himself.
It sounds like the watering down of the Gray report is underway. I have little expectation of it having any effect except to identity the sheep to be culled to save the Big Dog.
If it is watered down it is the civil service unions work trying to protect their staff from being named, and not no10
It is suggested that it will be very bad for the civil servants in no 10 and Whitehall
I am sure it will be bad for them, but I am also sure that any political wiggleroom will be exploited to the maximum. If the wiggleroom can be increased by the correct sort of watering down then...
As the original supplier of the quoted stages of a project - it is a a favourite of mine....
The context was the HMS Captain saga. Where a ship was built against the advice of Chief Constructor (chief naval architect) of the Royal Navy. The ship rolled over and sank on the maiden voyage, killing nearly everyone on board. Including the designer....
- The Chief Constructor who had warned against the design was forced to resign. - His replacement was very nearly the naval architect for the shipyard that had mis-built the ship - the design was bad, but made worse by excess weight in construction...
On the junior people involved - everyone is trying to hide behind them.
The senior civil servants who are involved are trying to claim that it is really unfair on Doris the receptionist to bin her. Because if Doris goes, then Sir Reginald Fuckwit who was next in the conga line will get it in the neck.
The politicians will be doing the same with the junior SPADs....
Very interesting bit of history Mr M.
The history of the 19th cent Royal Navy is fascinating from a project management, technology, innovation, working culture, social changes (and many others) perspectives. There are lessons there for nearly every aspect of running things in todays world. There is even an early (and successful) usage of PFI!
The traditional view of a bunch of hidebound Admirals only interested in floggings and sails is rubbish - you could, in fact, argue that the RN was *too* keen on innovation. A considerable number of ships were built that were novel and utterly useless.
I believe the large number of mature oak trees in various parts of the southern UK is because in the early 1800's the Admiralty became concerned at the potential lack of wood probable in the early to mid 1900's, and ensured the planting of oaks. Overtaken by technology, of course, but evidence of long-term planning.
The beautiful oak tree we have in our front garden came about when our eldest (56) threw a few acorns into the ground when he was 4 and it just grew and grew, but we know use a tree surgeon every year to keep it in good shape
3 local by-elections today - all in Dartford and all Con defence. Two are for Dartford itself and one for Kent CC.
I taught at DGS for many years - under normal service these [ 2 in Wilm ington & Maypole would all be very safe holds. Be interesting to see what happens.
"Disney says it is "consulting with members of the dwarfism community" on the film "to avoid reinforcing stereotypes from the original animated film"."
Given Snow White is a Latina, maybe we can change the title to "Snow Latinx and the seven vertically challenged humanoids".
And I see they have Israeli actress Gal Gadot as the Evil Queen. Surely Anti-Semitism in action and reinforcing racial stereotypes as Jewish people out to dominate the world?
I don't understand why they are remaking the film. Could they just... not? if they need to keep the licence or something surely there is another way than aiming for a big budget hit.
The cinemas are just coming back and Disney is playing safe, remaking what it thought would be merely an updated version of a loved classic remade for the modern age. I think China played a big part in their thinking - this would have been a film that would have done well there (and globally) and, crucially, hasn't got anything in it that would offend the Chinese market and get the censors there to block it.
The box office situation in China is pretty precarious for Hollywood, not even mega hits like Spider-Man have been given release dates despite Chinese audiences wanting to see it. Shang-Chi had a whole bunch of pro-China bullshit in it and still got rejected because Simu Liu said something that could be potentially construed as anti-China. My reading of it is that Hollywood is set to give up on chasing Chinese money and make their films less China friendly and if the CCP don't like it then who gives a shit because they weren't approving specifically China sensitive movies either. Deadline did a pretty good piece on it and one of the things they pointed out is that the Hollywood studio only gets 10% of the gross in China compared to ~50% in the US and ~40% in Europe, it can be a lot of money, but now the compromises required to get approval are so high it doesn't seem worthwhile.
10% in China? I thought it was a 25% cut for the studio in China. Still not great mind, but a 10% gross wouldn't really justify even trying to release a movie in China given marketing and distribution costs.
Somebody posted a "six stages of a project" thing the other day and said we have reached the "Disillusionment" stage.
That seems about right to me. I am looking forward to Stage 3 next - "Panic"
DK Brown's "Stages of a Project"
- Enthusiasm - Disillusionment - Panic - The Search for the Guilty - The punishment of the Innocent - Praise and Honour for the Non-Participants
I suspect we will see 3-5 in a single hour as the Gray report comes out.
Boris's panicking will result in anyone no matter how junior being punished as he tries to protect himself.
It sounds like the watering down of the Gray report is underway. I have little expectation of it having any effect except to identity the sheep to be culled to save the Big Dog.
I am laying off a little on Sunak this morning.
Time and tide and all that. His moment may well be passing.
Personally, I have never rated him. He was an anonymous MP until elevated to Chancellor after which all he has done is to spend money at levels that would make a Corbynite blanche!
Exactly he has don enothing of note, however they are easy pleased on here.
Morning Malc. How's your lady wife now?
Hello OKC, she is a lot better , still getting some odd things every so often , all her bones aching and strange sensation with all the nerves on her head giving sharp pains. Not sure if connected. Her lungs are not 100% , as she cannot do anything like the exercise she used to but in grand scheme of things we cannot complain at all. Hope you and wife are well. Sun shining here today.
Sunshine? You have moved from Scotland?
All the best to Mrs Malc!
Shining here in the SE - lovely walk this morning. And snowdrops coming out.
This is where a leader like Macron would never allow something like this to happen and why I respect how he operates in France. Robust defence of free speech and free thought.
Don't the police have anything better to do, like investigating all those parties in No 10?
I don't understand where our supposedly right wing Home Secretary is in all of this, how have we got to a stage where thought crimes are being pursued by the police? Though maybe that's what she wants.
The police have long had a tendency to do this, all by themselves.
When a special edition of Charlie Hebdo was published as push back against the terrorist attack, some Police forces tried to get newsagents to give them lists of who'd bought it.
I missed that. Gods. Another brilliant move from my local police. Glad they moved on to success re Operation Midland (yes that was the Met, but Wiltshire involved at various bits)
If the police raid my flat and use the books I own as test of character, I'm fucked.
Own two by Dan Brown.
I own 7! And a Thomas Knox.
Off to the gulag with you. The Knox probably leads to 10 years in isolation.
Gulag might not be so bad. Whenever I find a book I want on my library catalogue it seems like it is usually at the local prison library and I have to reserve it.
Haven't they learned yet what happens when a book is banned?
Many people in their 40s and 50s will tell you what happened when Peter Wright’s Spycatcher got banned, and that was before we had an internet!
Yup. I was one of the mug's that bought it. The only thing I learned was what a complete shambles the security services were.
In an aside, the eminent journalist and BBC reporter John Cole wrote in his autobiography that if he were Chancellor looking to save a few quid for the Exchequer he would start by axing said services. I thought at the time he was overegging it but after reading Spycatcher I decided he wasn't.
The appalling performance of the same services during the Iraq war fiasco that discredited Tony Blair was only grist to the same mill.
Somebody posted a "six stages of a project" thing the other day and said we have reached the "Disillusionment" stage.
That seems about right to me. I am looking forward to Stage 3 next - "Panic"
DK Brown's "Stages of a Project"
- Enthusiasm - Disillusionment - Panic - The Search for the Guilty - The punishment of the Innocent - Praise and Honour for the Non-Participants
I suspect we will see 3-5 in a single hour as the Gray report comes out.
Boris's panicking will result in anyone no matter how junior being punished as he tries to protect himself.
It sounds like the watering down of the Gray report is underway. I have little expectation of it having any effect except to identity the sheep to be culled to save the Big Dog.
If it is watered down it is the civil service unions work trying to protect their staff from being named, and not no10
It is suggested that it will be very bad for the civil servants in no 10 and Whitehall
I am sure it will be bad for them, but I am also sure that any political wiggleroom will be exploited to the maximum. If the wiggleroom can be increased by the correct sort of watering down then...
As the original supplier of the quoted stages of a project - it is a a favourite of mine....
The context was the HMS Captain saga. Where a ship was built against the advice of Chief Constructor (chief naval architect) of the Royal Navy. The ship rolled over and sank on the maiden voyage, killing nearly everyone on board. Including the designer....
- The Chief Constructor who had warned against the design was forced to resign. - His replacement was very nearly the naval architect for the shipyard that had mis-built the ship - the design was bad, but made worse by excess weight in construction...
On the junior people involved - everyone is trying to hide behind them.
The senior civil servants who are involved are trying to claim that it is really unfair on Doris the receptionist to bin her. Because if Doris goes, then Sir Reginald Fuckwit who was next in the conga line will get it in the neck.
The politicians will be doing the same with the junior SPADs....
Very interesting bit of history Mr M.
The history of the 19th cent Royal Navy is fascinating from a project management, technology, innovation, working culture, social changes (and many others) perspectives. There are lessons there for nearly every aspect of running things in todays world. There is even an early (and successful) usage of PFI!
The traditional view of a bunch of hidebound Admirals only interested in floggings and sails is rubbish - you could, in fact, argue that the RN was *too* keen on innovation. A considerable number of ships were built that were novel and utterly useless.
Entirely agree. A few years ago I was visiting Chatham Dockyard with a friend and we had a poke around the old sawmill in the NE corner. No indication or anything on site at the time - just derelict cleared space plus the building. But it turned out to have been a highly modern operation with travelling gantry crane going out to the timber dump area and bringing tree trunks back into the sawmill building, all rational flow and power. Even placed uphill from the rest of the yard to make it that much easier to move the sawn timber to where it was needed.
In 1814.
By IKB's dad Marc. Fresh from arguably the first powered mass production line in the world (the Block Mills in Portsmouth Dockyard).
See the very early adoption of the steam engine and then the propeller. See also triple expansion and the steam turbine.
One failure was spending a fortune on Babbage's machines - which never delivered any usable data. The end came when Astronomer Royal pointed out that it would cost orders of magnitude less to hire lots of mathematicians to check the results of doing it manually.
It wasn't about being against progress - Babbage's machines required very, very expensive levels of precision (for the time) to work. Less technically demanding calculators were built and used. And later, the RN was the first to use mechanical computers in gun laying.
That leads to one of my favourite connections tree.
Joseph Whitworth designed the surface plate table and standardised screw threads (for nuts and bolts). He also designed a machine capable of measuring tolerances down to a millionth of an inch. His standard for screw threads became the British Standard Whitworth (which I think was the world's first engineering standard).
When Babbage was making his Difference Engine, he used engineer Joseph Clement to build it. The engine required massive precision, and parts could not be farmed out to other engineers. The cost of making the parts caused Clement and Babbage to fall out.
At the time, Clement had a young man working for him. A certain Joseph Whitworth. It's not hard to work out where Babbage got the idea that precision in engineering might be a good thing.
That connection means Babbage's computing work was much more influential in progressing engineering than it ever was in computing.
If you read between the lines, both Clement & Whitworth took advantage of Babbage to build their businesses. Whitworth built several machine shops out of the Babbage machine money...
Babbage was well aware of the precision requirement at the start
Do you have more info about that first assertion please?
As for Babbage being well aware of the need for precision - of course he was. But Whitworth was the guy who delivered it over a decade later.
It is actually best to accept that we don't really have free speech and whole areas of public debate are off limits, even in a semi-anonymous forum such as this. I would not even attempt to discuss some of the ideas advanced by Eric Zemmour other than in the most private of settings, because under the legal framework we have, I would be putting myself at risk of professional ruin and even criminal sanction. This is not because I believe I am a racist, but the risk of misinterpretation is too high. It is not a good thing at all, but a situation that we essentially have to live with, and in my estimation, there is no chance whatsoever of it changing in the near future. To do so, you would need to undo 30 years of law relating to 'equalities', and there is zero political appetite for this.
Zemmour is a racist and quite open about it. He is making a play for those who feel that that French National Front (yes, re-named) had abandoned them.
Being openly racist was not a particularly unusual political position well within my lifetime. Most politicians are a bit more reticent nowadays though, and keep it more in the sub text.
All I will say on Zemmour, is the main reason why I wouldn't vote for him were I to be eligible to is because of his policy on removing the citizenship of and deporting dual nationals who are convicted of crimes - which is definetly racist and abhorrent, but only in the same way as similar polices enacted by our own government are. The avoidance of any debate on the wider issues he raises about multiculturalism - it is typically immediately closed down on the grounds of implied racism - is not a positive thing, or the sign of a healthy public sphere. It is the sign of big problems to come.
He's not someone who debates on multi-culturalism in any sort of good faith, or with any sort of good intentions, however. Is reviving the Dreyfus slur a good thing, or talking about minorities in a shower of expletives ? He's not even Michel Houllebecq, and in his case it's not even theoretically implied racism, but actually proud and overt racism.
This is where a leader like Macron would never allow something like this to happen and why I respect how he operates in France. Robust defence of free speech and free thought.
Don't the police have anything better to do, like investigating all those parties in No 10?
I don't understand where our supposedly right wing Home Secretary is in all of this, how have we got to a stage where thought crimes are being pursued by the police? Though maybe that's what she wants.
The police have long had a tendency to do this, all by themselves.
When a special edition of Charlie Hebdo was published as push back against the terrorist attack, some Police forces tried to get newsagents to give them lists of who'd bought it.
I guess my point is that the Home Secretary should be repealing the laws that allow this kind of policing, but I guess it appeals to her authoritarian view that no one should be able to say anything unless specifically approved by her.
It reveals that the tory commitment to 'freedom of speech and thought' is actually a sham, at least on the part of the government. On the one hand, they allow this type of policing of 'hate' to happen. On the other, they bring in laws that seek to hamper investigative journalism that may result in problems for them; as well as placing legal limitations on legitimate protest. I've said repeatedly that you can expect nothing in terms of meaningful action from the government on this type of problem, the only people you can rely on is the backbenchers in the Conservative Party, and even then it is a rear guard action watering down bad laws bought forward by the government.
The problem is that nearly anything can be described as "needing to be investigated"
It's back to police culture - see @Cyclefree on that subject.
The bigger issue is fundamentally with the laws themselves, specifically the encroachment of law in to areas that were traditionally regarded as the private sphere. It is inevitable that the police will have to adapt to that. By getting angered at the way the police target anti-trans activists, people are really angry at the underlying laws which protect trans people from what they percieve as harrassment.
This is where a leader like Macron would never allow something like this to happen and why I respect how he operates in France. Robust defence of free speech and free thought.
Don't the police have anything better to do, like investigating all those parties in No 10?
I don't understand where our supposedly right wing Home Secretary is in all of this, how have we got to a stage where thought crimes are being pursued by the police? Though maybe that's what she wants.
The police have long had a tendency to do this, all by themselves.
When a special edition of Charlie Hebdo was published as push back against the terrorist attack, some Police forces tried to get newsagents to give them lists of who'd bought it.
I missed that. Gods. Another brilliant move from my local police. Glad they moved on to success re Operation Midland (yes that was the Met, but Wiltshire involved at various bits)
If the police raid my flat and use the books I own as test of character, I'm fucked.
Somebody posted a "six stages of a project" thing the other day and said we have reached the "Disillusionment" stage.
That seems about right to me. I am looking forward to Stage 3 next - "Panic"
DK Brown's "Stages of a Project"
- Enthusiasm - Disillusionment - Panic - The Search for the Guilty - The punishment of the Innocent - Praise and Honour for the Non-Participants
I suspect we will see 3-5 in a single hour as the Gray report comes out.
Boris's panicking will result in anyone no matter how junior being punished as he tries to protect himself.
It sounds like the watering down of the Gray report is underway. I have little expectation of it having any effect except to identity the sheep to be culled to save the Big Dog.
If it is watered down it is the civil service unions work trying to protect their staff from being named, and not no10
It is suggested that it will be very bad for the civil servants in no 10 and Whitehall
I am sure it will be bad for them, but I am also sure that any political wiggleroom will be exploited to the maximum. If the wiggleroom can be increased by the correct sort of watering down then...
As the original supplier of the quoted stages of a project - it is a a favourite of mine....
The context was the HMS Captain saga. Where a ship was built against the advice of Chief Constructor (chief naval architect) of the Royal Navy. The ship rolled over and sank on the maiden voyage, killing nearly everyone on board. Including the designer....
- The Chief Constructor who had warned against the design was forced to resign. - His replacement was very nearly the naval architect for the shipyard that had mis-built the ship - the design was bad, but made worse by excess weight in construction...
On the junior people involved - everyone is trying to hide behind them.
The senior civil servants who are involved are trying to claim that it is really unfair on Doris the receptionist to bin her. Because if Doris goes, then Sir Reginald Fuckwit who was next in the conga line will get it in the neck.
The politicians will be doing the same with the junior SPADs....
Very interesting bit of history Mr M.
The history of the 19th cent Royal Navy is fascinating from a project management, technology, innovation, working culture, social changes (and many others) perspectives. There are lessons there for nearly every aspect of running things in todays world. There is even an early (and successful) usage of PFI!
The traditional view of a bunch of hidebound Admirals only interested in floggings and sails is rubbish - you could, in fact, argue that the RN was *too* keen on innovation. A considerable number of ships were built that were novel and utterly useless.
Entirely agree. A few years ago I was visiting Chatham Dockyard with a friend and we had a poke around the old sawmill in the NE corner. No indication or anything on site at the time - just derelict cleared space plus the building. But it turned out to have been a highly modern operation with travelling gantry crane going out to the timber dump area and bringing tree trunks back into the sawmill building, all rational flow and power. Even placed uphill from the rest of the yard to make it that much easier to move the sawn timber to where it was needed.
In 1814.
By IKB's dad Marc. Fresh from arguably the first powered mass production line in the world (the Block Mills in Portsmouth Dockyard).
See the very early adoption of the steam engine and then the propeller. See also triple expansion and the steam turbine.
One failure was spending a fortune on Babbage's machines - which never delivered any usable data. The end came when Astronomer Royal pointed out that it would cost orders of magnitude less to hire lots of mathematicians to check the results of doing it manually.
It wasn't about being against progress - Babbage's machines required very, very expensive levels of precision (for the time) to work. Less technically demanding calculators were built and used. And later, the RN was the first to use mechanical computers in gun laying.
Indeed; my dad maintained the later generation of these computers (as well as the gun turrets and guns). Though other aspects of naval life didn't change so quickly, especially the hammocks and broadside messing (where each group of sailors nominated one to go and collect the food from the galley and serve it up in their mess). As became very clear when Dad took me to see HMS Victory.
Haven't they learned yet what happens when a book is banned?
Many people in their 40s and 50s will tell you what happened when Peter Wright’s Spycatcher got banned, and that was before we had an internet!
When Lady Chatterley's Lover got banned, it's a known fact that lots of aristocratic women showed their defiance by having it off with their gamekeepers.
Sound the klaxon! Incidental hospitalisations overtake non-incidentals for the first time ever in that series. Quick calculation suggests that something like 80% of incoming daily admissions are either not *for* COVID or not staying overnight so not very serious.
We've got a huge update for reinfections coming on Monday that is going to get everyone panicked for nothing, yet this data which there is already an existing series for is tucked away in a weekly release on the NHS website that no one can easily find. This data should be reflected in the dashboard stats for England at least. There's currently only 6k people in hospital *for* COVID right now in England, that's still dropping pretty rapidly, if one were to go by the dashboard stats that makes it seem as though 14k people are in hospital for COVID on the same day, more than double.
Yet Covid makes those 'somethings else' markedly more lethal, even being given anaesthetic. So it IS a huge problem. All across the board. It's just the way you are ill and maybe die that differs.
Simon Calder @SimonCalder · 27m EXCLUSIVE Taxpayers spent £500,000 pounds so the foreign secretary didn't have to fly to, from and within Australia on @Qantas . Instead, @trussliz travelled 22,000 miles by private government Airbus A321, creating almost 500 tonnes of CO2 emissions. #COP26
Muppet. The A321 is 10% slower than the 787 and has higher cabin altitude - no wonder she looked cream crackered!
This is where a leader like Macron would never allow something like this to happen and why I respect how he operates in France. Robust defence of free speech and free thought.
Don't the police have anything better to do, like investigating all those parties in No 10?
I don't understand where our supposedly right wing Home Secretary is in all of this, how have we got to a stage where thought crimes are being pursued by the police? Though maybe that's what she wants.
The police have long had a tendency to do this, all by themselves.
When a special edition of Charlie Hebdo was published as push back against the terrorist attack, some Police forces tried to get newsagents to give them lists of who'd bought it.
I missed that. Gods. Another brilliant move from my local police. Glad they moved on to success re Operation Midland (yes that was the Met, but Wiltshire involved at various bits)
If the police raid my flat and use the books I own as test of character, I'm fucked.
Nottinghamshire Police confirmed the payout, but insisted that this was a settlement, not compensation, and that it had not admitted liability.
“We stand by the fact that the arrest, detention and obtaining of a warrant of further detention were all perfectly legal, proportionate and necessary in the circumstances as they were in 2008,” it said.
Utter arrogant nonsense. All appropriate, hence why we paid up. It shields you legally but no one is fooled.
SKS fans please explain As i forecast SKS peaked at 11.59 am on 19.1.22
Kaboom, Boris now slashes the Labour lead to under 5%!!
Well back into hung parliament territory again now
A no change poll is a "Kaboom" and a slashing? 🤦♂️
I thought you pretended to know polling and understand how it works, do you even know what the "(-)" after the poll shares means?
With all due respect, I don't think you're a polling expert at all, I just think you have a log of polls that suit your agenda and that you can cherrypick and pull out to your hearts content when it suits your interests to do so.
The Lab lead was 13 before last weeks PMQs the 3 polls since have the lead as 7,8,4 an average of 6.33 so basically halved
Is that with the same pollster?
No.
2 of the 3 showed a decrease in lead compared to last week the 3rd pollster had no poll since a month ago and reported no change since then
Yes, but as Bartholomew mentions below, there's no halving of leads with the same pollsters.
R&W was 13 last week and 7 this week
And 4 two weeks ago, and 3 three weeks ago.
The 13 is an outlier. It wasn't substantiated by either any other regular pollsters or by the same pollster.
A pollster polling every week will get outliers sometimes. All pollsters should and if they don't that should be a red flag that they're fiddling their data to avoid them.
Find out Now had the lead at 14%
I think their next poll will be about 7
So what do you think the average lead is now?
Find Out Now aren't a regular pollster who poll every month and they're again an exception not the norm. All the other regular pollsters had about 9-10% a week ago and now the regular pollsters seem to be saying 7-8%.
So it looks like the average has moved in by about 1-2% at the most which is basically margin of error.
So you want to exclude all the 13s and 14s and the 4 today is an outlier so lets exclude that too
SKS is a dud and the Polls will continue to narrow and revert to Tory leads in due course but we could exclude all polls from now on if you wish and pretend there is going yo be a Labour landslide
Will you be joining Peace and Justice Party when the Jeremy and the People's Pidcock finally decide they will have to go it alone? Rachael Swindon thinks 100k members in a week, would likely gain assets like Claudia Webbe and Zarah Sultana who face deselection and perhaps Barry Gardiner and Ricky Dicky Ding Dong Burgon who are in search of a brain.
What do you think? Could be exciting.
I think SKS is a useless nonentity and Jezza will stand and win as an independent if not readmitted
Lab will lose again under SKS
Doubt Harpins wet dream about a new Party will happen
It'll be interesting to see what happens. I can see Corbyn winning as an independent and he'd have an army of people who would canvas for him. It will be stick or twist for Momentum and all the remaining Labour members who see the party as the enemy, and even for MPs like Ding Dong who spend half their time campaigning for Jeremy.
You can't be a Labour member and campaign for the defeat of the Labour candidate. So whether we get a spin-out party or not there will be a Starmer vs the Left moment. You think Starmer makes Labour less electable, I think the loons like Ding Dong do. As the split will now have to happen I guess we will find out one way or another.
Depends if the leadership overreaches and actually expels Corbyn which would be inflammatory IMO. If the leadership is sensible they would offer Islington N a choice of left wing local replacements (after Corbyn is barred from standing) so everybody can move on.
I would personally avoid that fight, by letting him back in, but with a warning. It's not as if other Corbynites aren't unwilling to sit on the back benches, and Corbyn himself did right through New Labour years.
Corbyn would be let back in if only he would do a bit of grovelling and accept fully the findings of the ECHR Report on anti-semitism. But his dignity won't allow him to do that, because he doesn't believe he is in any way culpable. Which is why we are where we are.
SKS fans please explain As i forecast SKS peaked at 11.59 am on 19.1.22
Kaboom, Boris now slashes the Labour lead to under 5%!!
Well back into hung parliament territory again now
A no change poll is a "Kaboom" and a slashing? 🤦♂️
I thought you pretended to know polling and understand how it works, do you even know what the "(-)" after the poll shares means?
With all due respect, I don't think you're a polling expert at all, I just think you have a log of polls that suit your agenda and that you can cherrypick and pull out to your hearts content when it suits your interests to do so.
The Lab lead was 13 before last weeks PMQs the 3 polls since have the lead as 7,8,4 an average of 6.33 so basically halved
Is that with the same pollster?
No.
2 of the 3 showed a decrease in lead compared to last week the 3rd pollster had no poll since a month ago and reported no change since then
Yes, but as Bartholomew mentions below, there's no halving of leads with the same pollsters.
R&W was 13 last week and 7 this week
And 4 two weeks ago, and 3 three weeks ago.
The 13 is an outlier. It wasn't substantiated by either any other regular pollsters or by the same pollster.
A pollster polling every week will get outliers sometimes. All pollsters should and if they don't that should be a red flag that they're fiddling their data to avoid them.
Find out Now had the lead at 14%
I think their next poll will be about 7
So what do you think the average lead is now?
Find Out Now aren't a regular pollster who poll every month and they're again an exception not the norm. All the other regular pollsters had about 9-10% a week ago and now the regular pollsters seem to be saying 7-8%.
So it looks like the average has moved in by about 1-2% at the most which is basically margin of error.
So you want to exclude all the 13s and 14s and the 4 today is an outlier so lets exclude that too
SKS is a dud and the Polls will continue to narrow and revert to Tory leads in due course but we could exclude all polls from now on if you wish and pretend there is going yo be a Labour landslide
Will you be joining Peace and Justice Party when the Jeremy and the People's Pidcock finally decide they will have to go it alone? Rachael Swindon thinks 100k members in a week, would likely gain assets like Claudia Webbe and Zarah Sultana who face deselection and perhaps Barry Gardiner and Ricky Dicky Ding Dong Burgon who are in search of a brain.
What do you think? Could be exciting.
I think SKS is a useless nonentity and Jezza will stand and win as an independent if not readmitted
Lab will lose again under SKS
Doubt Harpins wet dream about a new Party will happen
It'll be interesting to see what happens. I can see Corbyn winning as an independent and he'd have an army of people who would canvas for him. It will be stick or twist for Momentum and all the remaining Labour members who see the party as the enemy, and even for MPs like Ding Dong who spend half their time campaigning for Jeremy.
You can't be a Labour member and campaign for the defeat of the Labour candidate. So whether we get a spin-out party or not there will be a Starmer vs the Left moment. You think Starmer makes Labour less electable, I think the loons like Ding Dong do. As the split will now have to happen I guess we will find out one way or another.
Depends if the leadership overreaches and actually expels Corbyn which would be inflammatory IMO. If the leadership is sensible they would offer Islington N a choice of left wing local replacements (after Corbyn is barred from standing) so everybody can move on.
Doesn't work like that. Corbyn IS the left. The man who has always been right. The man who would be PM if it wasn't for a conspiracy of Tories in the Labour Party. If he is standing as an MP then the fight goes on. If he retires? Yeah its over. So as usual its all about him. Man above party as it always has been.
Resigning in disgrace is a humiliation too far. Clinging on despite abuse of rules, if that is revealed, would be humiliating but with salve of power.
I presumed the leak was fake....
I always presume fakery on leaks.
I knew it was fake as soon as I saw it was by Joe Lycett. Did you click the link and read the "leak", was rather amusing I thought.
It was a funny but obvious joke, but shocking to read people underneath on Twitter wondering if its real or not.
Didn't read it right away, as just responding to the theoretical principle of clinging on in disgrace, but the very idea it would be so clear in summary made it clear it was fake right away before even getting to 2.
Comments
That is what the graph does with a LOESS smooth. It doesn't show what you want to see.
At the moment there is insufficient evidence for a Tory recovery. Perhaps it will come. But there's no way of knowing for sure whether it is starting now, or if you're looking at noise.
So if they aren't earning money they are a burden on society and that isn't right.
Anyone who feels the need to tell other people how much integrity they have, almost certainly doesn't.
https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/united-kingdom/
Get well soon and good luck.
This is not a socially conservative policy, it is an economically libertarian policy.
I support people being able to apply for jobs only in their skill area for 3 to 6 months at least, even if not forever while on welfare
Comedian and writer Barry Cryer has died at the age of 86.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-60154371
Best wishes.
When a special edition of Charlie Hebdo was published as push back against the terrorist attack, some Police forces tried to get newsagents to give them lists of who'd bought it.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/feb/09/wiltshire-police-apologise-details-charlie-hebdo-readers
Either way though, they've been popular so I fully expect Disney to keep going through their catalogue until they've done all the major ones or it ceases to be popular. Simple business decision.
For some of the very old movies like Dumbo, I think its got more potential to see how they update the story.
SKS is a dud and the Polls will continue to narrow and revert to Tory leads in due course but we could exclude all polls from now on if you wish and pretend there is going yo be a Labour landslide
Overtaken by technology, of course, but evidence of long-term planning.
Loved jokers wild but his full CV is amazing
We'll see if Labour can sustain 5-10+% leads over a long period of time or not. The longest run of continuous Labour leads was March 2012 to July 2013.
In 1814.
By IKB's dad Marc. Fresh from arguably the first powered mass production line in the world (the Block Mills in Portsmouth Dockyard).
Happily now a sawmill again.
http://johnsmilitaryhistory.com/chathambrunel.html
http://www.nkj.co.uk/about/brunel-sawmill
What do you think? Could be exciting.
Still, on the bright side, it means I don't have to play for Sunday's service, and Shi*e Jesus Shi*e was on the hymn list. Our top soprano is convinced that I caught covid deliberately to avoid it.
The Return of Jafah was a very fun movie, even though it was very cheaply made, which is quite obvious now rewatching it. It'd be nice to get that done 'properly' nowadays, but its never going to happen.
The success of the series led to them putting more effort and even getting Robin Williams back for the Forty Thieves at least.
Presume SKS LAB agrees
See the very early adoption of the steam engine and then the propeller. See also triple expansion and the steam turbine.
One failure was spending a fortune on Babbage's machines - which never delivered any usable data. The end came when Astronomer Royal pointed out that it would cost orders of magnitude less to hire lots of mathematicians to check the results of doing it manually.
It wasn't about being against progress - Babbage's machines required very, very expensive levels of precision (for the time) to work. Less technically demanding calculators were built and used. And later, the RN was the first to use mechanical computers in gun laying.
With this UC announcement today Sunak seems to be morphing into Osborne plus Brexit, not sure that is the way to hold the redwall and nor will he win back Remainers either who voted for Cameron but have not voted Tory since
Lab will lose again under SKS
Doubt Harpins wet dream about a new Party will happen
It's back to police culture - see @Cyclefree on that subject.
https://twitter.com/joelycett/status/1486635223756464129
Sound the klaxon! Incidental hospitalisations overtake non-incidentals for the first time ever in that series. Quick calculation suggests that something like 80% of incoming daily admissions are either not *for* COVID or not staying overnight so not very serious.
We've got a huge update for reinfections coming on Monday that is going to get everyone panicked for nothing, yet this data which there is already an existing series for is tucked away in a weekly release on the NHS website that no one can easily find. This data should be reflected in the dashboard stats for England at least. There's currently only 6k people in hospital *for* COVID right now in England, that's still dropping pretty rapidly, if one were to go by the dashboard stats that makes it seem as though 14k people are in hospital for COVID on the same day, more than double.
https://youtu.be/XGEXECLc__0
You can't be a Labour member and campaign for the defeat of the Labour candidate. So whether we get a spin-out party or not there will be a Starmer vs the Left moment. You think Starmer makes Labour less electable, I think the loons like Ding Dong do. As the split will now have to happen I guess we will find out one way or another.
@andrew_lilico
·
4h
Interesting that the Danes have gone full "It's so mild we don't give two hoots how many cases there are".
https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/1486605406948446209
Simon Calder
@SimonCalder
·
27m
EXCLUSIVE
Taxpayers spent £500,000 pounds so the foreign secretary didn't have to fly to, from and within Australia on
@Qantas
.
Instead,
@trussliz
travelled 22,000 miles by private government Airbus A321, creating almost 500 tonnes of CO2 emissions. #COP26
Own two by Dan Brown.
I think I called him out on repeating bollocks.
So I can't identify this "Braying Tory", though I think it is the MP for Stoke on Trent North. One Gullis.
Joseph Whitworth designed the surface plate table and standardised screw threads (for nuts and bolts). He also designed a machine capable of measuring tolerances down to a millionth of an inch. His standard for screw threads became the British Standard Whitworth (which I think was the world's first engineering standard).
When Babbage was making his Difference Engine, he used engineer Joseph Clement to build it. The engine required massive precision, and parts could not be farmed out to other engineers. The cost of making the parts caused Clement and Babbage to fall out.
At the time, Clement had a young man working for him. A certain Joseph Whitworth. It's not hard to work out where Babbage got the idea that precision in engineering might be a good thing.
That connection means Babbage's computing work was much more influential in progressing engineering than it ever was in computing.
The Goode Olde Days... weren't.
I do have a couple of Dawkins ones though...
Babbage was well aware of the precision requirement at the start
It makes sense that project management would also be complex.
One must always be careful about finding out all the facts as newspaper reports are not always accurate or complete. But the Miller case does show that the police can go too far in seeking to police thought and threaten people over non-existent crimes.
Second question - have any of the journalists complaining tried to book a flight to Australia any time recently? They’re all way oversubscribed thanks to a lot of people trying to get back home there, with almost no-one leaving the country on the outbound legs.
All the best to Mrs Malc!
Lord almighty, the things I had to fake to have a relationship, saying that Bella and Edward was the greatest love story in history was close to the top.
In an aside, the eminent journalist and BBC reporter John Cole wrote in his autobiography that if he were Chancellor looking to save a few quid for the Exchequer he would start by axing said services. I thought at the time he was overegging it but after reading Spycatcher I decided he wasn't.
The appalling performance of the same services during the Iraq war fiasco that discredited Tony Blair was only grist to the same mill.
As for Babbage being well aware of the need for precision - of course he was. But Whitworth was the guy who delivered it over a decade later.
https://www.timeshighereducation.com/news/police-pay-20k-to-nottingham-student-arrested-over-terror-manual/417477.article
Nottinghamshire Police confirmed the payout, but insisted that this was a settlement, not compensation, and that it had not admitted liability.
“We stand by the fact that the arrest, detention and obtaining of a warrant of further detention were all perfectly legal, proportionate and necessary in the circumstances as they were in 2008,” it said.
Utter arrogant nonsense. All appropriate, hence why we paid up. It shields you legally but no one is fooled.
It was a funny but obvious joke, but shocking to read people underneath on Twitter wondering if its real or not.
But his dignity won't allow him to do that, because he doesn't believe he is in any way culpable.
Which is why we are where we are.