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Johnson’s leader ratings fall to Corbyn’s GE2019 levels – politicalbetting.com

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  • Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Sub-variant of Omicron being investigated by UK health agency
    Scientists have said they are investigating a sub-variant of Omicron known as BA.2.

    In a tweet posted on Friday lunchtime, the UK Health Security Agency said BA.2 had been designated as a variant under investigation - though case numbers were "currently low".

    The UKHSA, the government agency responsible for public health protection, said the original Omicron variant, known as BA.1, remained the dominant form of Covid in the UK.

    Further analyses would be undertaken into the new variant, the UKHSA said.

    Dr Meera Chand, incident director at the UKHSA, said: "It is the nature of viruses to evolve and mutate, so it's to be expected that we will continue to see new variants emerge as the pandemic goes on.

    "Our continued genomic surveillance allows us to detect them and assess whether they are significant."

    I pity the fool that gets over excited by this new variant.
    Exactly. If they were more like me, they would have spotted this variant about a month ago, and would now be fully apprised of its potentialities - and/or lack

    PB should pay me as a kind of human early warning system
    I'm sure plenty of us would pay you to never talk about Covid-19 again.
    Either is good. PayPal?
    We shall pay you in Dutch Tulips.
    Otherwise known as Bitcoin...going very cheap today.
    Cryptos are coming under my aegis at work, I'm going to set policy on this.

    Sadly it is because more and more reputable companies are looking to accept Bitcoin and others as payments.

    https://www.theverge.com/2021/11/12/22779137/amc-theaters-movie-tickets-cryptocurrency-bitcoin-cash-ethereum-litecoin
    I presume you have seen twitter is going all-in. You can now get yourself a twitter blue account (for a fee) and then link your NFT to it, so right click savers can get exposed.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,943
    Farooq said:

    Leon's wittering is free, so demand is infinite.

    No, it isn't. :smile:
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,839
    edited January 2022
    Sandpit said:

    Media reporting Meat Loaf died of COVID.

    Oh dear, he'd have been very high risk given his age combined with weight. A true musical legend either way, but I hope he wasn't an unvaccinated Darwin Award winner. RIP either way but sad if that is the case.
    He didn't confirm that he was vaccinated but last year when the vaccines were being rolled out he said he wouldn't be controlled, so I'm guessing he was unvaxxed.

    In shocking news, he wasn't a fan of masks either,
    Shakes head....another glimpse that in the US handling of COVID all round from the top to the bottom has been terrible, from federal to individuals.

    As I noted at the start of this thread, while most developed countries now suffer a fraction of the deaths in this wave despite enormous numbers of cases, the US deaths are basically as high as wave one, and still not seen Omicron deaths really kicking in yet.
    Given his age and weight you would have thought he would have willingly taken the vaccines but you cannot always reason with stupidity.
    The level of anti-vaxxer nonsense in the US is mind boggling. Still only 25% boostered.
    I've flagged up a few times just how partisan divide the antivax stuff in America is.

    I'm so glad we don't have that here in the UK.
    It was unfortunate that it the pandemic happened during an election year in the US, with hyper-partisan treatment of everything.

    Trump got booed recently by a crowd of his own supporters for saying get vaccinated, and there’s still a large group of hippies and yoga moms who won’t get jabbed either.
    I actually think there is some really interesting research to be done over this. I think its more than just Trump or the election (although obviously that is a significant part of it). We also have some other countries, where the level of anti-vaxxer / anti-restrictions have been surprisingly high.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,076

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Farooq said:

    And he's got there faster than Corbyn did.

    Boris is worse than Corbyn

    Can we agree they are both terrible?
    At least Corbyn made a dignified exit. Well, relatively...
    Is that the same Corbyn who refused to resign after losing a Vote of No Confidence amongst his MPs, then lost an election but acted like he won it, then lost another election which this time his parties biggest defeat since before WWII?

    I can't see Boris following that path. If he loses a Vote of No Confidence he'll be out, unlike Corbyn. Nor will he lose not one but two General Elections.
    Johnson will leave with less dignity than the man-baby across the pond, having further Ratnered his brand.
    Actually, I've been messaging someone who knows Boris Johnson quite well, he reckons he might remain an MP and keep some dignity about him.

    If he is ousted he sees it as his Churchill after the Dardanelles campaign moment, a great man forced out by pygmies.

    Then he will be back when the country needs him.
    Will Johnson like his hero seek redemption in the trenches of Eastern Ukraine?

    Will he fuck.
    How close to the lice ridden trenches and rotting corpse fumed front line did Churchill actually get? Honest question.
    Right in it I believe, at 'Plugstreet', though I daresay the comforts and hampers from home were considerable. For reasons obscure (being a show off I expect) he insisted on wearing a French Adrian helmet.
    You can accuse Churchill of many things, but personal cowardice is not one of them. If anything, the opposite applies: he was stupidly reckless at times (being on the roof whilst bombs were falling; the Sidney Street siege).
    Thank you both. Yes.

    image
    There's also an interesting account of his time in Cuba (1895), that's worth reading, if you are interested in Churchill's risk (or not) taking.

    image
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,520
    edited January 2022

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Sub-variant of Omicron being investigated by UK health agency
    Scientists have said they are investigating a sub-variant of Omicron known as BA.2.

    In a tweet posted on Friday lunchtime, the UK Health Security Agency said BA.2 had been designated as a variant under investigation - though case numbers were "currently low".

    The UKHSA, the government agency responsible for public health protection, said the original Omicron variant, known as BA.1, remained the dominant form of Covid in the UK.

    Further analyses would be undertaken into the new variant, the UKHSA said.

    Dr Meera Chand, incident director at the UKHSA, said: "It is the nature of viruses to evolve and mutate, so it's to be expected that we will continue to see new variants emerge as the pandemic goes on.

    "Our continued genomic surveillance allows us to detect them and assess whether they are significant."

    I pity the fool that gets over excited by this new variant.
    Exactly. If they were more like me, they would have spotted this variant about a month ago, and would now be fully apprised of its potentialities - and/or lack

    PB should pay me as a kind of human early warning system
    I'm sure plenty of us would pay you to never talk about Covid-19 again.
    Either is good. PayPal?
    We shall pay you in Dutch Tulips.
    Otherwise known as Bitcoin...going very cheap today.
    Cryptos are coming under my aegis at work, I'm going to set policy on this.

    Sadly it is because more and more reputable companies are looking to accept Bitcoin and others as payments.

    https://www.theverge.com/2021/11/12/22779137/amc-theaters-movie-tickets-cryptocurrency-bitcoin-cash-ethereum-litecoin
    I presume you have seen twitter is going all-in. You can now get yourself a twitter blue account (for a fee) and then link your NFT to it, so right click savers can get exposed.
    Yes, when it eventually goes wrong, there's going to be a lot of upset people.

    This is going to be Football Index on steroids.

    People are spending their entire life savings on something that has much value as the booger they pick from their nose.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,238

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Farooq said:

    And he's got there faster than Corbyn did.

    Boris is worse than Corbyn

    Can we agree they are both terrible?
    At least Corbyn made a dignified exit. Well, relatively...
    Is that the same Corbyn who refused to resign after losing a Vote of No Confidence amongst his MPs, then lost an election but acted like he won it, then lost another election which this time his parties biggest defeat since before WWII?

    I can't see Boris following that path. If he loses a Vote of No Confidence he'll be out, unlike Corbyn. Nor will he lose not one but two General Elections.
    Johnson will leave with less dignity than the man-baby across the pond, having further Ratnered his brand.
    Actually, I've been messaging someone who knows Boris Johnson quite well, he reckons he might remain an MP and keep some dignity about him.

    If he is ousted he sees it as his Churchill after the Dardanelles campaign moment, a great man forced out by pygmies.

    Then he will be back when the country needs him.
    Will Johnson like his hero seek redemption in the trenches of Eastern Ukraine?

    Will he fuck.
    How close to the lice ridden trenches and rotting corpse fumed front line did Churchill actually get? Honest question.
    Right in it I believe, at 'Plugstreet', though I daresay the comforts and hampers from home were considerable. For reasons obscure (being a show off I expect) he insisted on wearing a French Adrian helmet.
    Churchill, the self-described “Escaped Scapegoat,” joined the army in November 1915 as a Major in the Queen’s Own Oxfordshire Hussars and trained in the front lines for several weeks with the Guards Division. There was discussion of him getting command of a brigade as a Brigadier-General, but this fell through when vetoed by Prime Minister H.H Asquith, Churchill’s former political chief. Instead, Churchill became Lt. Colonel commanding the 6th (Service) Battalion, Royal Scots Fusiliers (RSF), part of the 9th (Scottish) Division, in January 1916. The 6th was a Kitchener New Army unit sent to France in May 1915, and was recovering from the September 1915 Battle of Loos.

    Churchill and the 6th RSF served in the trenches of Ploegsteert (“Plugstreet” as British tommies called it), part of the Belgian salient of Ypres, a city now known in Flemish as Ieper but fixed in tommy-talk as “Wipers.” As battalion commander he performed well, winning over dubious junior officers and enlisted men. He survived many close calls, and while on leave also engaged in politics. But he soon realized he had little prospect for promotion. In May 1916 the 6th, unable to replenish its losses, was amalgamated with another battalion. Thus Churchill had an opportunity to leave the army and honorably return to the political home front, where the Asquith government was under fire. (Churchill duly helped stoke the flames.)


    https://winstonchurchill.hillsdale.edu/churchill-trenches-peter-apps/

    I did read somewhere why he went with the French helmet but for the life of me can't remember why!
    Maybe more stylish, but it also weighed less.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,437
    edited January 2022
    Have been informed today that my firm refuses to buy any books because of Covid. Eh?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,353
    HYUFD said:

    Polruan said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Farooq said:

    And he's got there faster than Corbyn did.

    Boris is worse than Corbyn

    Can we agree they are both terrible?
    At least Corbyn made a dignified exit. Well, relatively...
    Is that the same Corbyn who refused to resign after losing a Vote of No Confidence amongst his MPs, then lost an election but acted like he won it, then lost another election which this time his parties biggest defeat since before WWII?

    I can't see Boris following that path. If he loses a Vote of No Confidence he'll be out, unlike Corbyn. Nor will he lose not one but two General Elections.
    Johnson will leave with less dignity than the man-baby across the pond, having further Ratnered his brand.
    Actually, I've been messaging someone who knows Boris Johnson quite well, he reckons he might remain an MP and keep some dignity about him.

    If he is ousted he sees it as his Churchill after the Dardanelles campaign moment, a great man forced out by pygmies.

    Then he will be back when the country needs him.
    I suggested the other day that his level of delusion about his destiny is such that he'd sit on the backbenches waiting for the day when the world needs its king back. He'd be a complete nightmare for whoever loses GE24 for the Tories, managing to convince a loyal band of followers that he was unfairly removed as leader, was still a proven winner, and the only chance they had of removing PM Starmer in GE29.
    Indeed. If Sunak replaces Boris as PM now and loses the next general election to Starmer, then if Boris is still an MP he could run for Leader of the Opposition. If Starmer loses popularity like Biden has, Boris could prepare to challenge PM Starmer at the next election as Trump is preparing to challenge President Biden again at the next US election.

    Remember too Berlusconi won, lost, won, lost again several times in Italy
    That is your maddest post EVER! We are down a deep rabbit hole if you can seriously compare the UK to Italian election likelihoods.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,005

    Media reporting Meat Loaf died of COVID.

    So now we know where the bat came from.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,943
    edited January 2022
    The Russian populace don't appear to be entirely onboard with (or aware of ?) the Ukraine project...

    https://twitter.com/yaffaesque/status/1484185643437621252
    It strikes me of note (not that this has any bearing or reflection on Putin's actual decision making) that there's very little sense in Moscow of people having any idea or interest in fact that their country may be days away from launching a devastating invasion of a neighbor..

    https://twitter.com/BankerG2/status/1484193875992485888
    I know! My girlfriend lives in Moscow. She keeps telling me "nobody cares" "it is a non issue." She was more worried about repercussions from Kazakhstan than anything with Ukraine....
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,103
    In happier news. My 100% record of having mildly disappointing food (on my one previous Sri Lankan trip) has been easily shattered. It’s all good so far. Black Pork Curry lunch here was absolutely excellent

    https://www.zomato.com/colombo/the-gallery-cafe-kollupitiya-colombo-03

    Colombo is a strange city. Poor, scruffy, yet in places intensely civilised. And stunned by the sun and heat into an amiable complacency
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,485

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Farooq said:

    And he's got there faster than Corbyn did.

    Boris is worse than Corbyn

    Can we agree they are both terrible?
    At least Corbyn made a dignified exit. Well, relatively...
    Is that the same Corbyn who refused to resign after losing a Vote of No Confidence amongst his MPs, then lost an election but acted like he won it, then lost another election which this time his parties biggest defeat since before WWII?

    I can't see Boris following that path. If he loses a Vote of No Confidence he'll be out, unlike Corbyn. Nor will he lose not one but two General Elections.
    Johnson will leave with less dignity than the man-baby across the pond, having further Ratnered his brand.
    Actually, I've been messaging someone who knows Boris Johnson quite well, he reckons he might remain an MP and keep some dignity about him.

    If he is ousted he sees it as his Churchill after the Dardanelles campaign moment, a great man forced out by pygmies.

    Then he will be back when the country needs him.
    Will Johnson like his hero seek redemption in the trenches of Eastern Ukraine?

    Will he fuck.
    How close to the lice ridden trenches and rotting corpse fumed front line did Churchill actually get? Honest question.
    Right in it I believe, at 'Plugstreet', though I daresay the comforts and hampers from home were considerable. For reasons obscure (being a show off I expect) he insisted on wearing a French Adrian helmet.
    You can accuse Churchill of many things, but personal cowardice is not one of them. If anything, the opposite applies: he was stupidly reckless at times (being on the roof whilst bombs were falling; the Sidney Street siege).
    There were at least a couple of occasions where Churchill was moderately seriously considered for a VC. Both occasions were qaushed by senior men upset with his journalism

    IIRC the French helmet was given to him by a French General.

    At Sidney Street, the famous picture shows Churchill using a brick wall for cover, while soldiers in front of him appear to be trying to hide behind a plate glass shop window. I guess Churchill was the professional, there.

    image

    When I was at QMW, a bloke on my course was squatting in a ?warehouse? on Sidney Street (1991 or 1992 timeframe). They were facing an eviction, and he joked about recreating the siege, and whether the then-Home Secretary would come down to watch.

    It's how I learnt about the Sidney Street siege.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,839
    edited January 2022

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Sub-variant of Omicron being investigated by UK health agency
    Scientists have said they are investigating a sub-variant of Omicron known as BA.2.

    In a tweet posted on Friday lunchtime, the UK Health Security Agency said BA.2 had been designated as a variant under investigation - though case numbers were "currently low".

    The UKHSA, the government agency responsible for public health protection, said the original Omicron variant, known as BA.1, remained the dominant form of Covid in the UK.

    Further analyses would be undertaken into the new variant, the UKHSA said.

    Dr Meera Chand, incident director at the UKHSA, said: "It is the nature of viruses to evolve and mutate, so it's to be expected that we will continue to see new variants emerge as the pandemic goes on.

    "Our continued genomic surveillance allows us to detect them and assess whether they are significant."

    I pity the fool that gets over excited by this new variant.
    Exactly. If they were more like me, they would have spotted this variant about a month ago, and would now be fully apprised of its potentialities - and/or lack

    PB should pay me as a kind of human early warning system
    I'm sure plenty of us would pay you to never talk about Covid-19 again.
    Either is good. PayPal?
    We shall pay you in Dutch Tulips.
    Otherwise known as Bitcoin...going very cheap today.
    Cryptos are coming under my aegis at work, I'm going to set policy on this.

    Sadly it is because more and more reputable companies are looking to accept Bitcoin and others as payments.

    https://www.theverge.com/2021/11/12/22779137/amc-theaters-movie-tickets-cryptocurrency-bitcoin-cash-ethereum-litecoin
    I presume you have seen twitter is going all-in. You can now get yourself a twitter blue account (for a fee) and then link your NFT to it, so right click savers can get exposed.
    Yes, when it eventually goes wrong, there's going to be a lot of upset people.

    This is going to be Football Index on steroids.

    People are spending their entire life savings on something that has much value as the booger they pick from their nose.
    Neymar Jnr bought a Bored Ape yesterday....I would say that is the biggest personality so far to buy into this, which will only drive a lot of people who really really can't afford it, to get into it.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,088
    A number of us received a private message from an esteemed former poster now lurking – I won’t name him because I think he works for MI5 – which called for less pontificating and more betting focus in BTL commentary. In that spirit I’ve collected my thoughts on Muscly – who of course should go and go now on account of being a disgrace to the office he holds - and would summarize thus:

    The question to pose from the betting angle is a very specific one – will he survive partygate and lead the Cons into the May local elections? There’s no point looking further ahead because if he does his prospects will then depend on how those elections pan out which requires a separate piece of analysis.

    So, will he?

    It could be there’s a settled will amongst MPs to ditch him and they’re simply waiting for Sue Gray to confirm – as she will – that rule breaking events took place in Downing St. If so he’s toast and the answer to our question is No. But I don’t think there is (yet) a settled will. My ‘impressionistic big picture’ says that kicking out a PM who 2 years ago won a landslide mandate from the electorate is a MASSIVE thing to do and will happen only if circumstances virtually compel it. Parties in Downing St, however egregious, don’t clear that bar.

    What does is something else he’s on the hook for – Lying To Parliament. It’s my opinion that this is where it’s at on Sue Gray. If her report says Martin Reynolds got the PM’s permission for the 20th May party to go ahead, he will not survive. If it doesn’t say that, he will. I doubt very much her report will deliver the clarity required on this crux point.

    Conclusion: It’s more likely than not that Johnson survives to the summer. Putting a number to it, it’s a 66-75% chance. The best way to profit from this view is to back him to still be in situ on 1st July. It’s available at a juicy 1.9.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,509

    Sandpit said:

    Media reporting Meat Loaf died of COVID.

    Oh dear, he'd have been very high risk given his age combined with weight. A true musical legend either way, but I hope he wasn't an unvaccinated Darwin Award winner. RIP either way but sad if that is the case.
    He didn't confirm that he was vaccinated but last year when the vaccines were being rolled out he said he wouldn't be controlled, so I'm guessing he was unvaxxed.

    In shocking news, he wasn't a fan of masks either,
    Shakes head....another glimpse that in the US handling of COVID all round from the top to the bottom has been terrible, from federal to individuals.

    As I noted at the start of this thread, while most developed countries now suffer a fraction of the deaths in this wave despite enormous numbers of cases, the US deaths are basically as high as wave one, and still not seen Omicron deaths really kicking in yet.
    Given his age and weight you would have thought he would have willingly taken the vaccines but you cannot always reason with stupidity.
    The level of anti-vaxxer nonsense in the US is mind boggling. Still only 25% boostered.
    I've flagged up a few times just how partisan divide the antivax stuff in America is.

    I'm so glad we don't have that here in the UK.
    It was unfortunate that it the pandemic happened during an election year in the US, with hyper-partisan treatment of everything.

    Trump got booed recently by a crowd of his own supporters for saying get vaccinated, and there’s still a large group of hippies and yoga moms who won’t get jabbed either.
    I actually think there is some really interesting research to be done over this. I think its more than just Trump or the election (although obviously that is a significant part of it). We also have some other countries, where the level of anti-vaxxer / anti-restrictions have been surprisingly high.
    Russian-speaking countries are the same. My wife has friends who, even before the pandemic, were home-schooling their kids because vaccines will give them autism. Many of these countries have got hold of Western vaccines and had to throw them away, so didn’t bother ordering any more and now have only the Russian and Chinese ones.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    AlistairM said:

    Media reporting Meat Loaf died of COVID.

    Oh dear, he'd have been very high risk given his age combined with weight. A true musical legend either way, but I hope he wasn't an unvaccinated Darwin Award winner. RIP either way but sad if that is the case.
    He didn't confirm that he was vaccinated but last year when the vaccines were being rolled out he said he wouldn't be controlled, so I'm guessing he was unvaxxed.

    In shocking news, he wasn't a fan of masks either,
    Shakes head....another glimpse that in the US handling of COVID all round from the top to the bottom has been terrible, from federal to individuals.

    As I noted at the start of this thread, while most developed countries now suffer a fraction of the deaths in this wave despite enormous numbers of cases, the US deaths are basically as high as wave one, and still not seen Omicron deaths really kicking in yet.
    Given his age and weight you would have thought he would have willingly taken the vaccines but you cannot always reason with stupidity.
    Meatloaf was a genuine superstar. If he died of Covid because he was unvaccinated then I hope what happened to him will give a nudge to those who still have not been vaccinated.
    Nothing seems to shift the view of many anti-vaxxer Americans.
    Indeed, just look at the reception Donald Trump gets from his side when he tells them he is pro vaccine/was responsible for the vaccines.
    I read somewhere (maybe on here) that covid kills Trump voters at three times the rate of others. He probably realises this and therefore has to push the vaccine.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,943
    edited January 2022
    (Apparently genuine)

    at this morning's lobby:
    journalist: "final one, does the PM think he has a bat out of hell's chance of leading the Conservative party into the next election or will he be gone, gone, gone?"

    spokesman: (pause) "I will point you to the PM's remarks during PMQs earlier this week"

    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1484500044921384964
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,753
    edited January 2022
    Mr. Roberts, I thought that the Darwin Awards had been suspended during the pandemic?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,753
    Mr. Eagles, what's your view on cryptocurrency?
  • Mr. Eagles, what's your view on cryptocurrency?

    LOL....to say TSE isn't a fan, is like saying Boris only lies occasionally.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,509
    edited January 2022

    Mr. Roberts, I thought that the Darwin Awards had been suspended during the pandemic?

    Replaced temporarily by the Herman Cain Awards?
    https://www.vice.com/en/article/4avzym/redditors-give-the-the-herman-cain-award-to-anti-vaxxers-who-die-of-covid
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083

    HYUFD said:

    Polruan said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Farooq said:

    And he's got there faster than Corbyn did.

    Boris is worse than Corbyn

    Can we agree they are both terrible?
    At least Corbyn made a dignified exit. Well, relatively...
    Is that the same Corbyn who refused to resign after losing a Vote of No Confidence amongst his MPs, then lost an election but acted like he won it, then lost another election which this time his parties biggest defeat since before WWII?

    I can't see Boris following that path. If he loses a Vote of No Confidence he'll be out, unlike Corbyn. Nor will he lose not one but two General Elections.
    Johnson will leave with less dignity than the man-baby across the pond, having further Ratnered his brand.
    Actually, I've been messaging someone who knows Boris Johnson quite well, he reckons he might remain an MP and keep some dignity about him.

    If he is ousted he sees it as his Churchill after the Dardanelles campaign moment, a great man forced out by pygmies.

    Then he will be back when the country needs him.
    I suggested the other day that his level of delusion about his destiny is such that he'd sit on the backbenches waiting for the day when the world needs its king back. He'd be a complete nightmare for whoever loses GE24 for the Tories, managing to convince a loyal band of followers that he was unfairly removed as leader, was still a proven winner, and the only chance they had of removing PM Starmer in GE29.
    Indeed. If Sunak replaces Boris as PM now and loses the next general election to Starmer, then if Boris is still an MP he could run for Leader of the Opposition. If Starmer loses popularity like Biden has, Boris could prepare to challenge PM Starmer at the next election as Trump is preparing to challenge President Biden again at the next US election.

    Remember too Berlusconi won, lost, won, lost again several times in Italy
    That is your maddest post EVER! We are down a deep rabbit hole if you can seriously compare the UK to Italian election likelihoods.
    I'm not an expert on Italian politics but I'm not sure this is a mad comparison. Boris is a salesman who's excellent at convincing multiple groups with conflicting priorities that he is the only one who can deliver what they all want. It's an ideal profile for insurgent/opposition popularity followed by brief periods in power.

    And we're probably about to have our 5th PM in 12 years which doesn't look like a model of stability.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,353
    Polruan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Polruan said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Farooq said:

    And he's got there faster than Corbyn did.

    Boris is worse than Corbyn

    Can we agree they are both terrible?
    At least Corbyn made a dignified exit. Well, relatively...
    Is that the same Corbyn who refused to resign after losing a Vote of No Confidence amongst his MPs, then lost an election but acted like he won it, then lost another election which this time his parties biggest defeat since before WWII?

    I can't see Boris following that path. If he loses a Vote of No Confidence he'll be out, unlike Corbyn. Nor will he lose not one but two General Elections.
    Johnson will leave with less dignity than the man-baby across the pond, having further Ratnered his brand.
    Actually, I've been messaging someone who knows Boris Johnson quite well, he reckons he might remain an MP and keep some dignity about him.

    If he is ousted he sees it as his Churchill after the Dardanelles campaign moment, a great man forced out by pygmies.

    Then he will be back when the country needs him.
    I suggested the other day that his level of delusion about his destiny is such that he'd sit on the backbenches waiting for the day when the world needs its king back. He'd be a complete nightmare for whoever loses GE24 for the Tories, managing to convince a loyal band of followers that he was unfairly removed as leader, was still a proven winner, and the only chance they had of removing PM Starmer in GE29.
    Indeed. If Sunak replaces Boris as PM now and loses the next general election to Starmer, then if Boris is still an MP he could run for Leader of the Opposition. If Starmer loses popularity like Biden has, Boris could prepare to challenge PM Starmer at the next election as Trump is preparing to challenge President Biden again at the next US election.

    Remember too Berlusconi won, lost, won, lost again several times in Italy
    That is your maddest post EVER! We are down a deep rabbit hole if you can seriously compare the UK to Italian election likelihoods.
    I'm not an expert on Italian politics but I'm not sure this is a mad comparison. Boris is a salesman who's excellent at convincing multiple groups with conflicting priorities that he is the only one who can deliver what they all want. It's an ideal profile for insurgent/opposition popularity followed by brief periods in power.

    And we're probably about to have our 5th PM in 12 years which doesn't look like a model of stability.
    Fair point, but in that case we are already very much down HY's rabbit hole.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,437

    Mr. Eagles, what's your view on cryptocurrency?

    LOL....to say TSE isn't a fan, is like saying Boris only lies occasionally.
    IIRC TSE’s view is based on the risk exposure to banks in regard to money laundering obligations etc

  • Will Johnson's successor kick Boris Johnson out of the Tory Party?

    That would be the day I rejoin the party.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,509

    Mr. Eagles, what's your view on cryptocurrency?

    Pretty much everyone with a technology or finance background has the same view of cryptocurrency, or at least cryptocurrencies currently available.

    A view which isn’t helped much, by the fact that the people pushing them hard were mostly selling Majorcan timeshares three years ago.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    Polruan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Polruan said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Farooq said:

    And he's got there faster than Corbyn did.

    Boris is worse than Corbyn

    Can we agree they are both terrible?
    At least Corbyn made a dignified exit. Well, relatively...
    Is that the same Corbyn who refused to resign after losing a Vote of No Confidence amongst his MPs, then lost an election but acted like he won it, then lost another election which this time his parties biggest defeat since before WWII?

    I can't see Boris following that path. If he loses a Vote of No Confidence he'll be out, unlike Corbyn. Nor will he lose not one but two General Elections.
    Johnson will leave with less dignity than the man-baby across the pond, having further Ratnered his brand.
    Actually, I've been messaging someone who knows Boris Johnson quite well, he reckons he might remain an MP and keep some dignity about him.

    If he is ousted he sees it as his Churchill after the Dardanelles campaign moment, a great man forced out by pygmies.

    Then he will be back when the country needs him.
    I suggested the other day that his level of delusion about his destiny is such that he'd sit on the backbenches waiting for the day when the world needs its king back. He'd be a complete nightmare for whoever loses GE24 for the Tories, managing to convince a loyal band of followers that he was unfairly removed as leader, was still a proven winner, and the only chance they had of removing PM Starmer in GE29.
    Indeed. If Sunak replaces Boris as PM now and loses the next general election to Starmer, then if Boris is still an MP he could run for Leader of the Opposition. If Starmer loses popularity like Biden has, Boris could prepare to challenge PM Starmer at the next election as Trump is preparing to challenge President Biden again at the next US election.

    Remember too Berlusconi won, lost, won, lost again several times in Italy
    That is your maddest post EVER! We are down a deep rabbit hole if you can seriously compare the UK to Italian election likelihoods.
    I'm not an expert on Italian politics but I'm not sure this is a mad comparison. Boris is a salesman who's excellent at convincing multiple groups with conflicting priorities that he is the only one who can deliver what they all want. It's an ideal profile for insurgent/opposition popularity followed by brief periods in power.

    And we're probably about to have our 5th PM in 12 years which doesn't look like a model of stability.
    I could easily see Johnson staying on as an MP for the money and proximity to the vertical of power.

    He'll end up being PM again as the only possible leader that can get the UK back into the EU.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,839
    edited January 2022
    Talking of crypto....and what people do after politics...Bercow doing Cameo. Just embarrassing that people prostitute themselves like this.

    https://twitter.com/CryptoBoole/status/1484180838866571264?s=20
  • HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    Scott_xP said:

    In just over two mins, Rory Stewart skewers Boris Johnson like a kebab - and every word rings completely true. Such minimalist clarity is impressive! https://twitter.com/mikegalsworthy/status/1484305993987067908

    I'm surprised that Johnson is being allowed to get away with this crap ...the most successful roll out anywhere .... 'the best vaccine program'... 'The best track and trace'....'the best economy in the G20' ....'The best recovery....The most sought after destination blah blah blah...."

    That isn't what the coronavirus figures show. We have the sixth biggest death toll in the world and a bigger death toll than any country in the EU.

    What exactly have we done that makes us the best?

    I went to Chester two days ago and there were more rough sleepers than I've even seen in Barcelona. It was back to the dark days of Thatcher when you couldn't pass a doorway in the West End without stepping over a cardboard box with someone sleeping in it.

    Well done Rory!

    In terms of Covid deaths per head Poland, Italy, Bulgaria, Hungary, Croatia, Lithuania, Slovenia, Slovakia and the Czech Republic are all worse than us now.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_death_rates_by_country

    Germany and the USA have more homeless than the UK
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_homeless_population
    That is massively misleading by you. From the table you link to:

    The German homeless number "*Includes "around 441,000 asylum seekers and refugees in temporary accommodation"; only 4.9/10000 people are without any shelter"

    The US total is higher than the UK but in terms of % population they are massively lower - 17.7 per 10,000 compared to the UK value of 54 per 10,000. That we have a higher rate of homelessness than the US should be a matter of shame to any British Government.
    No he's not being misleading in this instance since people with temporary shelter are defined as homeless in the UK too. So you should compare the UK's raw figure with Germany's raw figure for a like-for-like comparison.

    This is like discussions about poverty, but where poverty has been redefined to mean inequality. International tables and comparisons are absurd if you aren't comparing like for like.

    There is no way the real homeless situation in the UK is worse than America's. Any drive or walk through British and American cities would confirm that.
    When the UK takes in a million or so refugees like Germany has over the last few years then you might have a point. Until then you are just talking bullshit. Germany has a short term issue related to accepting all those refugees. The UK has a long standing and endemic problem with homelessness which no Government has been taking seriously.
    The UK has taken in millions of migrants over the last few years, net migration is considerably higher in the UK than it has been in Germany for many years now which inevitably affects the housing situation. Either way though on a like-for-like comparison the German situation is worse.

    However I was primarily responding to your nonsense claim that the homeless situation in the UK is worse than the USA. Stop and think about that for thirty seconds please and think for thirty seconds about the fact that, like in Germany, those in temporary accommodation are classed as "homeless" in the UK.

    Now after stopping and thinking do you still want to claim the homeless situation in the UK is worse than the USA? Really?
    Yet again you are being thoroughly dishonest in your comparisons. The UK has taken in millions of migrants who came here with work and with money to pay for accommodation. Germany has taken in millions with nothing but the clothes on their back. The comparison you make is simply stupid and ignorant.
    No that isn't true whatsoever.

    The housing supply is [barring construction/demolitions] relatively fixed. A house doesn't care whether its occupants have money or not, are asylum seekers or workers, or so on and so forth.

    More people coming here than leaving means more houses are required whether that's for asylum seekers or immigrants. Asylum seekers are no more a negative for housing demand than any other immigrants are and its wrong for your to characterise them as such.

    However anyway under free movement it is simply categorically not the case that people could only migrate here if they had the money to pay for their accommodation. We had no visa pre-screening for wealth or income or ability to pay for housing.

    We had millions arrive from Eastern Europe with "the clothes on their back" who did not arrive with the cash to pay for British housing costs. But we did have housing benefit etc available, but yes just like with asylum seekers, that means in times people ending up in temporary accommodation. Especially since there was no glut of empty housing available for people to move into, like there was in parts of Germany.
    That is just fantasy from start to finish. You will say anything to justify your indefensible positions.
    So you really think everyone who arrived in the UK from Eastern Europe arrived with enough money to pay British accommodation costs already in the bank?

    Over a million Romanians in the UK according to the settled status visa scheme. You think every single one of them arrived with enough money already in the bank saved up in Romania to pay for British housing costs and none of them came with just their shirt on their back?

    If so you're being indefensible. And I say that as someone who's a big fan of immigration and welcomes the fact that many people arrived here with nothing but the clothes on their back and have worked hard since arriving here. But to deny it happened because it suits your agenda is just absurd.

    I'd be perfectly happy to see restrictions on movement abolished and free movement restored, so long as that's twinned with restrictions on building abolished and the requirement for planning consent to be abolished too. No visa requirements, no planning consent requirements, should go hand-in-hand. But we've had one without the other and many people quite reasonably took advantage of that with nothing but their clothes on their back to start a new life in this country - and good luck to them too. Why would you pour scorn on them for doing so?
    What makes me laugh about your posts is your absurd absolutism. Where did Richard say suggest or imply that "everyone" arriving from elsewhere had loads of money on arrival? Some arrived here to do actual jobs with contracts. Others arrived to beg. It is neither everyone nor no-one.
    "The UK has taken in millions of migrants who came here with work and with money to pay for accommodation. "

    There was no visa pre-screening to check that the millions who came here had the money to pay for accommodation before they arrived.

    That it is neither everyone nor no-one verifies what I was saying. Thank you for agreeing with me.
    If you take that as me agreeing with you then you really are deluded. We're all ignoring your straw man absolutist drivvle, not trying to support them.
    Except I never said anything absolutist! Nothing I said was absolute so what are you ignoring?

    Richard claimed there was a difference between Germany where some arrived with nothing but the shirt on their back, and the UK where they arrived with money.

    I said that some arrived (neither all nor nothing) in the UK with effectively nothing but the shirt on their back too. Entirely legally and entirely reasonably and good luck to them too I added.

    You respond by saying it's neither all nor nothing.

    How is there a scintilla of difference between you saying it's neither all or nothing and me saying it was the case for some (not all and not none).

    You and I are saying the same thing, aren't we?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,839
    edited January 2022
    Sandpit said:

    Mr. Eagles, what's your view on cryptocurrency?

    Pretty much everyone with a technology or finance background has the same view of cryptocurrency, or at least cryptocurrencies currently available.

    A view which isn’t helped much, by the fact that the people pushing them hard were mostly selling Majorcan timeshares three years ago.
    One of the biggest "influencers" in NFT space got exposed a couple of days ago, his background makes timeshare salesmen look squeaky clean. 20 years of scam after scam after scam.
  • Dura_Ace said:

    AlistairM said:

    Media reporting Meat Loaf died of COVID.

    Oh dear, he'd have been very high risk given his age combined with weight. A true musical legend either way, but I hope he wasn't an unvaccinated Darwin Award winner. RIP either way but sad if that is the case.
    He didn't confirm that he was vaccinated but last year when the vaccines were being rolled out he said he wouldn't be controlled, so I'm guessing he was unvaxxed.

    In shocking news, he wasn't a fan of masks either,
    Shakes head....another glimpse that in the US handling of COVID all round from the top to the bottom has been terrible, from federal to individuals.

    As I noted at the start of this thread, while most developed countries now suffer a fraction of the deaths in this wave despite enormous numbers of cases, the US deaths are basically as high as wave one, and still not seen Omicron deaths really kicking in yet.
    Given his age and weight you would have thought he would have willingly taken the vaccines but you cannot always reason with stupidity.
    Meatloaf was a genuine superstar. If he died of Covid because he was unvaccinated then I hope what happened to him will give a nudge to those who still have not been vaccinated.
    Nothing seems to shift the view of many anti-vaxxer Americans.
    Indeed, just look at the reception Donald Trump gets from his side when he tells them he is pro vaccine/was responsible for the vaccines.
    I read somewhere (maybe on here) that covid kills Trump voters at three times the rate of others. He probably realises this and therefore has to push the vaccine.
    I would do anything for Covid, but I won't do vax.
    Thread winnner....
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,193
    edited January 2022
    kinabalu said:

    A number of us received a private message from an esteemed former poster now lurking – I won’t name him because I think he works for MI5 – which called for less pontificating and more betting focus in BTL commentary. In that spirit I’ve collected my thoughts on Muscly – who of course should go and go now on account of being a disgrace to the office he holds - and would summarize thus:

    The question to pose from the betting angle is a very specific one – will he survive partygate and lead the Cons into the May local elections? There’s no point looking further ahead because if he does his prospects will then depend on how those elections pan out which requires a separate piece of analysis.

    So, will he?

    It could be there’s a settled will amongst MPs to ditch him and they’re simply waiting for Sue Gray to confirm – as she will – that rule breaking events took place in Downing St. If so he’s toast and the answer to our question is No. But I don’t think there is (yet) a settled will. My ‘impressionistic big picture’ says that kicking out a PM who 2 years ago won a landslide mandate from the electorate is a MASSIVE thing to do and will happen only if circumstances virtually compel it. Parties in Downing St, however egregious, don’t clear that bar.

    What does is something else he’s on the hook for – Lying To Parliament. It’s my opinion that this is where it’s at on Sue Gray. If her report says Martin Reynolds got the PM’s permission for the 20th May party to go ahead, he will not survive. If it doesn’t say that, he will. I doubt very much her report will deliver the clarity required on this crux point.

    Conclusion: It’s more likely than not that Johnson survives to the summer. Putting a number to it, it’s a 66-75% chance. The best way to profit from this view is to back him to still be in situ on 1st July. It’s available at a juicy 1.9.

    I Agree, and the bet I like, which I keep tapping away at, is a lay of Johnson's first quarter exit day. Currently at 4.5 but was 2.36 a couple of days ago. The clock is ticking and the chances of a new leader being in place by the end of March recedes with each tick.
  • Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Farooq said:

    And he's got there faster than Corbyn did.

    Boris is worse than Corbyn

    Can we agree they are both terrible?
    At least Corbyn made a dignified exit. Well, relatively...
    Is that the same Corbyn who refused to resign after losing a Vote of No Confidence amongst his MPs, then lost an election but acted like he won it, then lost another election which this time his parties biggest defeat since before WWII?

    I can't see Boris following that path. If he loses a Vote of No Confidence he'll be out, unlike Corbyn. Nor will he lose not one but two General Elections.
    Johnson will leave with less dignity than the man-baby across the pond, having further Ratnered his brand.
    Actually, I've been messaging someone who knows Boris Johnson quite well, he reckons he might remain an MP and keep some dignity about him.

    If he is ousted he sees it as his Churchill after the Dardanelles campaign moment, a great man forced out by pygmies.

    Then he will be back when the country needs him.
    Will Johnson like his hero seek redemption in the trenches of Eastern Ukraine?

    Will he fuck.
    How close to the lice ridden trenches and rotting corpse fumed front line did Churchill actually get? Honest question.
    Right in it I believe, at 'Plugstreet', though I daresay the comforts and hampers from home were considerable. For reasons obscure (being a show off I expect) he insisted on wearing a French Adrian helmet.
    You can accuse Churchill of many things, but personal cowardice is not one of them. If anything, the opposite applies: he was stupidly reckless at times (being on the roof whilst bombs were falling; the Sidney Street siege).
    Thank you both. Yes.

    image
    The BBC drama-doc (more doc with drama scenes) Churchill's First World War is worth a watch imo. It is not on iplayer though.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,509

    Talking of crypto....and what people do after politics...Bercow doing Cameo. Just embarrassing that people prostitute themselves like this.

    https://twitter.com/CryptoBoole/status/1484180838866571264?s=20

    LOL how the mighty have fallen. He can’t even put his camera the right way round.

    Now, Cameo was a funny pandemic-era way to get an out-of-work actor or comedian to say happy birthday to your friend, but surely this sort of stunt raises all sorts of questions about advertising regulations?
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,193
    Leon said:

    In happier news. My 100% record of having mildly disappointing food (on my one previous Sri Lankan trip) has been easily shattered. It’s all good so far. Black Pork Curry lunch here was absolutely excellent

    https://www.zomato.com/colombo/the-gallery-cafe-kollupitiya-colombo-03

    Colombo is a strange city. Poor, scruffy, yet in places intensely civilised. And stunned by the sun and heat into an amiable complacency

    Are there still lots of stray dogs lining the streets? Was when I was there. Plagued with them - a bit off-putting.
  • Sandpit said:

    Talking of crypto....and what people do after politics...Bercow doing Cameo. Just embarrassing that people prostitute themselves like this.

    https://twitter.com/CryptoBoole/status/1484180838866571264?s=20

    LOL how the mighty have fallen. He can’t even put his camera the right way round.

    Now, Cameo was a funny pandemic-era way to get an out-of-work actor or comedian to say happy birthday to your friend, but surely this sort of stunt raises all sorts of questions about advertising regulations?
    Bloody hell he charges £81 for a "personal" cameo and £2220 for "business" (whatever that is).
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,943
    Dura_Ace said:

    Polruan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Polruan said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Farooq said:

    And he's got there faster than Corbyn did.

    Boris is worse than Corbyn

    Can we agree they are both terrible?
    At least Corbyn made a dignified exit. Well, relatively...
    Is that the same Corbyn who refused to resign after losing a Vote of No Confidence amongst his MPs, then lost an election but acted like he won it, then lost another election which this time his parties biggest defeat since before WWII?

    I can't see Boris following that path. If he loses a Vote of No Confidence he'll be out, unlike Corbyn. Nor will he lose not one but two General Elections.
    Johnson will leave with less dignity than the man-baby across the pond, having further Ratnered his brand.
    Actually, I've been messaging someone who knows Boris Johnson quite well, he reckons he might remain an MP and keep some dignity about him.

    If he is ousted he sees it as his Churchill after the Dardanelles campaign moment, a great man forced out by pygmies.

    Then he will be back when the country needs him.
    I suggested the other day that his level of delusion about his destiny is such that he'd sit on the backbenches waiting for the day when the world needs its king back. He'd be a complete nightmare for whoever loses GE24 for the Tories, managing to convince a loyal band of followers that he was unfairly removed as leader, was still a proven winner, and the only chance they had of removing PM Starmer in GE29.
    Indeed. If Sunak replaces Boris as PM now and loses the next general election to Starmer, then if Boris is still an MP he could run for Leader of the Opposition. If Starmer loses popularity like Biden has, Boris could prepare to challenge PM Starmer at the next election as Trump is preparing to challenge President Biden again at the next US election.

    Remember too Berlusconi won, lost, won, lost again several times in Italy
    That is your maddest post EVER! We are down a deep rabbit hole if you can seriously compare the UK to Italian election likelihoods.
    I'm not an expert on Italian politics but I'm not sure this is a mad comparison. Boris is a salesman who's excellent at convincing multiple groups with conflicting priorities that he is the only one who can deliver what they all want. It's an ideal profile for insurgent/opposition popularity followed by brief periods in power.

    And we're probably about to have our 5th PM in 12 years which doesn't look like a model of stability.
    I could easily see Johnson staying on as an MP for the money and proximity to the vertical of power.

    He'll end up being PM again as the only possible leader that can get the UK back into the EU.
    Not exactly Nixon and China.
    And most likely to provoke a French non.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,437

    Sandpit said:

    Talking of crypto....and what people do after politics...Bercow doing Cameo. Just embarrassing that people prostitute themselves like this.

    https://twitter.com/CryptoBoole/status/1484180838866571264?s=20

    LOL how the mighty have fallen. He can’t even put his camera the right way round.

    Now, Cameo was a funny pandemic-era way to get an out-of-work actor or comedian to say happy birthday to your friend, but surely this sort of stunt raises all sorts of questions about advertising regulations?
    Bloody hell he charges £81 for a "personal" cameo and £2220 for "business" (whatever that is).
    Maybe we’re the mugs
  • Sandpit said:

    Talking of crypto....and what people do after politics...Bercow doing Cameo. Just embarrassing that people prostitute themselves like this.

    https://twitter.com/CryptoBoole/status/1484180838866571264?s=20

    LOL how the mighty have fallen. He can’t even put his camera the right way round.

    Now, Cameo was a funny pandemic-era way to get an out-of-work actor or comedian to say happy birthday to your friend, but surely this sort of stunt raises all sorts of questions about advertising regulations?
    Bloody hell he charges £81 for a "personal" cameo and £2220 for "business" (whatever that is).
    Maybe we’re the mugs
    Clearly some people are.
  • Sandpit said:

    Talking of crypto....and what people do after politics...Bercow doing Cameo. Just embarrassing that people prostitute themselves like this.

    https://twitter.com/CryptoBoole/status/1484180838866571264?s=20

    LOL how the mighty have fallen. He can’t even put his camera the right way round.

    Now, Cameo was a funny pandemic-era way to get an out-of-work actor or comedian to say happy birthday to your friend, but surely this sort of stunt raises all sorts of questions about advertising regulations?
    It's amusing as I've said before I think we pay our politicians too much and it'd be better if their pay was more closely linked to citizens pay in general. I believe in the 90s an MP typically got two times average income and now it's three times and I don't think that's healthy.

    Others have said they think MPs are underpaid compared to the private sector.

    While a tiny, tiny minority of the private sector may be worth more than MPs that's far from the case for all MPs as the likes of Bercow etc whoring themselves post politics helps demonstrate. As does the desperation in many MPs to do anything to stay loyal to the Party and keep their seat, because if they lose their seat they lose their job and there £84k+ salary they'd never achieve in the real world.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,922

    Sandpit said:

    Mr. Eagles, what's your view on cryptocurrency?

    Pretty much everyone with a technology or finance background has the same view of cryptocurrency, or at least cryptocurrencies currently available.

    A view which isn’t helped much, by the fact that the people pushing them hard were mostly selling Majorcan timeshares three years ago.
    One of the biggest "influencers" in NFT space got exposed a couple of days ago, his background makes timeshare salesmen look squeaky clean. 20 years of scam after scam after scam.
    Despite reading up about them, I just cannot get my head around NFTs. Why would someone spend thousands (or more) on a jpg?
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,900
    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    And he's got there faster than Corbyn did.

    Boris is worse than Corbyn

    Can we agree they are both terrible?
    Will Johnson's successor kick Boris Johnson out of the Tory Party?

    Would be nice to expel the sleazy. disgusting, liar out of the Tory Party.

    Remove the whip for starters for his defence of the bully Priti Pratel.
    Given at least 40% of Tory MPs will still vote for Boris even if he loses a VONC no, it would be a recipe for civil war in the party.

    Even Starmer has not dared expel Corbyn despite the fact he lost the 2019 general election to Johnson by a landslide and only 40 Labour MPs ever voted for him
    Food for thought there, young HY. When civil war breaks our properly in the Conservative Party, which side will you be on?
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005
    Indie SAGE still banging the drum for more restrictions:

    https://www.independentsage.org/covid-protection-and-support-strategy-january-2022/
  • RobD said:

    Sandpit said:

    Mr. Eagles, what's your view on cryptocurrency?

    Pretty much everyone with a technology or finance background has the same view of cryptocurrency, or at least cryptocurrencies currently available.

    A view which isn’t helped much, by the fact that the people pushing them hard were mostly selling Majorcan timeshares three years ago.
    One of the biggest "influencers" in NFT space got exposed a couple of days ago, his background makes timeshare salesmen look squeaky clean. 20 years of scam after scam after scam.
    Despite reading up about them, I just cannot get my head around NFTs. Why would someone spend thousands (or more) on a jpg?
    Tulips. 🌷
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,076

    Sandpit said:

    Talking of crypto....and what people do after politics...Bercow doing Cameo. Just embarrassing that people prostitute themselves like this.

    https://twitter.com/CryptoBoole/status/1484180838866571264?s=20

    LOL how the mighty have fallen. He can’t even put his camera the right way round.

    Now, Cameo was a funny pandemic-era way to get an out-of-work actor or comedian to say happy birthday to your friend, but surely this sort of stunt raises all sorts of questions about advertising regulations?
    It's amusing as I've said before I think we pay our politicians too much and it'd be better if their pay was more closely linked to citizens pay in general. I believe in the 90s an MP typically got two times average income and now it's three times and I don't think that's healthy.

    Others have said they think MPs are underpaid compared to the private sector.

    While a tiny, tiny minority of the private sector may be worth more than MPs that's far from the case for all MPs as the likes of Bercow etc whoring themselves post politics helps demonstrate. As does the desperation in many MPs to do anything to stay loyal to the Party and keep their seat, because if they lose their seat they lose their job and there £84k+ salary they'd never achieve in the real world.
    The first problem is - what are MPs really?

    - Top management? If so, they are underpaid.
    - Middle management?
    - Social Workers with a fancy title? If so, they are overpaid

    You multiply that by a social expectation that an MP has a nice place in London, and big house for entertaining is their constituency.......

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,509
    RobD said:

    Sandpit said:

    Mr. Eagles, what's your view on cryptocurrency?

    Pretty much everyone with a technology or finance background has the same view of cryptocurrency, or at least cryptocurrencies currently available.

    A view which isn’t helped much, by the fact that the people pushing them hard were mostly selling Majorcan timeshares three years ago.
    One of the biggest "influencers" in NFT space got exposed a couple of days ago, his background makes timeshare salesmen look squeaky clean. 20 years of scam after scam after scam.
    Despite reading up about them, I just cannot get my head around NFTs. Why would someone spend thousands (or more) on a jpg?
    You’re not buying the jpg, you’re buying the certificate that says you own the jpg.

    Now, with things like Bored Apes, what you’re actually buying is membership of a club, which does have real-world benefits such as parties and events.
  • Nigelb said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon's wittering is free, so demand is infinite.

    No, it isn't. :smile:
    I don't get this "if something is free, demand is infinite" thing.
    I have worked in offices with free coffee, but have never managed more than about 6 cups a day.
  • Mr. Eagles, what's your view on cryptocurrency?

    Cryptocurrencies/NFTs are the spawn of Satan, the pineapple on pizza, the Second Punic War of financial planning.

    It is a massively unregulated sector where they taking advantage of the innocent and naive.

    https://www.zdnet.com/article/22-billion-in-cryptocurrency-stolen-from-defi-platforms-in-2021-report/

    https://www.vice.com/en/article/y3v3ny/all-my-apes-gone-nft-theft-victims-beg-for-centralized-saviors
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,076
    DavidL said:

    Troubling story in the Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/jan/21/hundreds-stripped-british-citizenship-last-15-years-study-finds

    I must confess that I though Begum was an extremely rare case but it appears not. The success of the government in the Supreme Court on this suggests to me that these powers are too extensive and profoundly undemocratic.

    The old "Well, we have this power. So obviously we *have* to use it"....
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,839
    edited January 2022
    RobD said:

    Sandpit said:

    Mr. Eagles, what's your view on cryptocurrency?

    Pretty much everyone with a technology or finance background has the same view of cryptocurrency, or at least cryptocurrencies currently available.

    A view which isn’t helped much, by the fact that the people pushing them hard were mostly selling Majorcan timeshares three years ago.
    One of the biggest "influencers" in NFT space got exposed a couple of days ago, his background makes timeshare salesmen look squeaky clean. 20 years of scam after scam after scam.
    Despite reading up about them, I just cannot get my head around NFTs. Why would someone spend thousands (or more) on a jpg?
    Well....many of these are sold as access to an exclusive "community" in which showing your jpeg of an ape or whatever signals to all the others you are part of this. But 99.999999% of this is nonsense.

    There is some interesting potential use cases for NFTs e.g. proving genuine ticketing. A band Avenged Sevenfold have quite a neat idea, they sold NFTs as basically membership to their fan club and with that you get all sorts of dedicated benefits e.g. early access tickets, fast pass, merch etc. So they just "airdrop" into people's crypto wallet the token for all the perk in terms of tickets, which then they can buy the concert ticket ahead of time and deep into the venue without queuing.

    I do own NFT to this Art AI project, because it isn't the "jpeg", its a token to use their Art AI to generate new paintings....I also flipped my initial investment of £200 to £6k and then bought back in cheap, but that isn't a different story.

    Do they need to do it via an NFT, meh, was I happy to pay £200 for access to a propriety AI by some Cambridge PhD, which I then have physical prints on my walls of stuff I made by interacting with the AI...that was a bloody good deal.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,914
    edited January 2022
    RobD said:

    Sandpit said:

    Mr. Eagles, what's your view on cryptocurrency?

    Pretty much everyone with a technology or finance background has the same view of cryptocurrency, or at least cryptocurrencies currently available.

    A view which isn’t helped much, by the fact that the people pushing them hard were mostly selling Majorcan timeshares three years ago.
    One of the biggest "influencers" in NFT space got exposed a couple of days ago, his background makes timeshare salesmen look squeaky clean. 20 years of scam after scam after scam.
    Despite reading up about them, I just cannot get my head around NFTs. Why would someone spend thousands (or more) on a jpg?
    Wash trading and money laundering. To be honest, not that different from how some of the very wealthy use real works of art .
  • Sandpit said:

    Talking of crypto....and what people do after politics...Bercow doing Cameo. Just embarrassing that people prostitute themselves like this.

    https://twitter.com/CryptoBoole/status/1484180838866571264?s=20

    LOL how the mighty have fallen. He can’t even put his camera the right way round.

    Now, Cameo was a funny pandemic-era way to get an out-of-work actor or comedian to say happy birthday to your friend, but surely this sort of stunt raises all sorts of questions about advertising regulations?
    It's amusing as I've said before I think we pay our politicians too much and it'd be better if their pay was more closely linked to citizens pay in general. I believe in the 90s an MP typically got two times average income and now it's three times and I don't think that's healthy.

    Others have said they think MPs are underpaid compared to the private sector.

    While a tiny, tiny minority of the private sector may be worth more than MPs that's far from the case for all MPs as the likes of Bercow etc whoring themselves post politics helps demonstrate. As does the desperation in many MPs to do anything to stay loyal to the Party and keep their seat, because if they lose their seat they lose their job and there £84k+ salary they'd never achieve in the real world.
    The first problem is - what are MPs really?

    - Top management? If so, they are underpaid.
    - Middle management?
    - Social Workers with a fancy title? If so, they are overpaid

    You multiply that by a social expectation that an MP has a nice place in London, and big house for entertaining is their constituency.......

    I would say Ministers are top management, and they get paid extra as a result.

    Whip holding backbench MPs ... Not so much. Not quite social workers but not too far off.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,520
    edited January 2022
    If you save the McDonald's logo image to your PC you now own?

    i) a McDonald's franchise

    ii) the McDonald's brand

    iii) the McDonald's logo

    iv) nothing of McDonald's

    Replace McDonald's with NFT
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,193
    According to the Institute for Government:

    "If a prime minister resigned suddenly or died, and there was a majority government, it would be up to the cabinet to recommend an immediate successor to the Queen. This could be done with the expectation that his or her role would be temporary, pending the election of a new party leader. However, while political parties usually have the ability to appoint an ‘acting leader’ if the leader resigns or is incapacitated, there is no formal ‘acting prime minister’ role. He or she would be prime minister until they chose to resign or if their cabinet forced them out."

    So for those betting on Next PM markets or Next CP leader market, would Raab count?
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,836
    AlistairM said:

    Indie SAGE still banging the drum for more restrictions:

    https://www.independentsage.org/covid-protection-and-support-strategy-january-2022/

    From a fortnight ago, although I doubt they've changed their minds.

    The ongoing attempts to rebrand "restrictions" as "protections" are risible.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,572
    Based at Jan 2020 = 100, for each country (England has lower unemployment rates generally, but I'm looking for Covid effect).

    Peak pandemic unemployment related benefits:
    England 217
    Wales 198
    Scotland 205
    NI 209

    November 2021 unemployment related benefits:
    England 146
    Wales 121
    Scotland 120
    NI 136

    Shows that in England the economic harm of the pandemic is far from over, and possibly explains the very different approach taken by Drakeford/Sturgeon.

    It probably correlates highly with public sector employment. All stats publicly available from DWP.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005
    edited January 2022
    pigeon said:

    AlistairM said:

    Indie SAGE still banging the drum for more restrictions:

    https://www.independentsage.org/covid-protection-and-support-strategy-january-2022/

    From a fortnight ago, although I doubt they've changed their minds.

    The ongoing attempts to rebrand "restrictions" as "protections" are risible.
    Sorry, missed that. Someone retweeted that.

    I do genuinely wonder what circumstances would be required for Indie SAGE to say that restrictions can be eased.
  • Stocky said:

    According to the Institute for Government:

    "If a prime minister resigned suddenly or died, and there was a majority government, it would be up to the cabinet to recommend an immediate successor to the Queen. This could be done with the expectation that his or her role would be temporary, pending the election of a new party leader. However, while political parties usually have the ability to appoint an ‘acting leader’ if the leader resigns or is incapacitated, there is no formal ‘acting prime minister’ role. He or she would be prime minister until they chose to resign or if their cabinet forced them out."

    So for those betting on Next PM markets or Next CP leader market, would Raab count?

    It depends. What does your bookmaker say? Betfair will settle on whoever is named on the government's own web site. The Raab/May school of thought is they might be the actual Prime Minister for a brief period between Boris flouncing and a new leader being elected.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,572
    Eabhal said:

    Based at Jan 2020 = 100, for each country (England has lower unemployment rates generally, but I'm looking for Covid effect).

    Peak pandemic unemployment related benefits:
    England 217
    Wales 198
    Scotland 205
    NI 209

    November 2021 unemployment related benefits:
    England 146
    Wales 121
    Scotland 120
    NI 136

    Shows that in England the economic harm of the pandemic is far from over, and possibly explains the very different approach taken by Drakeford/Sturgeon.

    It probably correlates highly with public sector employment. All stats publicly available from DWP.

    As an aside, quite remarkable the progress that NI has made (reduced by 60% from 2013 to 2020).
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,509
    edited January 2022
    Stocky said:

    According to the Institute for Government:

    "If a prime minister resigned suddenly or died, and there was a majority government, it would be up to the cabinet to recommend an immediate successor to the Queen. This could be done with the expectation that his or her role would be temporary, pending the election of a new party leader. However, while political parties usually have the ability to appoint an ‘acting leader’ if the leader resigns or is incapacitated, there is no formal ‘acting prime minister’ role. He or she would be prime minister until they chose to resign or if their cabinet forced them out."

    So for those betting on Next PM markets or Next CP leader market, would Raab count?

    Next PM is the person who kisses the Queen’s hand and has their name printed in the Gazette, even if their party has agreed they’ll only stay in place for a few months.

    So yes, there could be a disconnect between the next PM and next leader markets, if the incumbent walks into the night.

    I’m on Raab, Spencer, Brady, Patel, JRM, all at big odds for small money.
  • Doing an opinion poll and some of the questions include

    1) Am I in favour of more grammar schools

    and

    2) Do I consider myself working class
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    AlistairM said:

    pigeon said:

    AlistairM said:

    Indie SAGE still banging the drum for more restrictions:

    https://www.independentsage.org/covid-protection-and-support-strategy-january-2022/

    From a fortnight ago, although I doubt they've changed their minds.

    The ongoing attempts to rebrand "restrictions" as "protections" are risible.
    Sorry, missed that. Someone retweeted that.

    I do genuinely wonder what circumstances would be required for Indie SAGE to say that restrictions can be eased.
    Zero cases for 10 years?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,839
    edited January 2022

    Mr. Eagles, what's your view on cryptocurrency?

    Cryptocurrencies/NFTs are the spawn of Satan, the pineapple on pizza, the Second Punic War of financial planning.

    It is a massively unregulated sector where they taking advantage of the innocent and naive.

    https://www.zdnet.com/article/22-billion-in-cryptocurrency-stolen-from-defi-platforms-in-2021-report/

    https://www.vice.com/en/article/y3v3ny/all-my-apes-gone-nft-theft-victims-beg-for-centralized-saviors
    The second story is a bit of nonsense really. Anybody with any sort of wealth in crypto, doesn't store anything in a hot wallet. Its like saying I have $100k watch, I left it on display in my car in the Hackney and somebody stole it, rather than having it in a safety deposit box.

    The DeFi stuff, now that is both really interesting, but also really concerning. Lots of really interesting ideas, but people putting their life savings into it are just asking for trouble both from scams and also poor code. Also so much nonsense of you can earn 1000% APY, well its either a scam or you are putting your crypto in a liquidity pool, where the volatility means you will suffer massive impermanent loss, so you might be getting that return into terms of a token, but the token in that time becomes significantly reduced in value.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,502
    Interesting recent video from Dr John Campbell (nursing doctorate) entitled "Freedom of information revelation"

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9UHvwWWcjYw
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,836
    edited January 2022
    Stocky said:

    According to the Institute for Government:

    "If a prime minister resigned suddenly or died, and there was a majority government, it would be up to the cabinet to recommend an immediate successor to the Queen. This could be done with the expectation that his or her role would be temporary, pending the election of a new party leader. However, while political parties usually have the ability to appoint an ‘acting leader’ if the leader resigns or is incapacitated, there is no formal ‘acting prime minister’ role. He or she would be prime minister until they chose to resign or if their cabinet forced them out."

    So for those betting on Next PM markets or Next CP leader market, would Raab count?

    Depends on the rules applicable to each individual bookmaker/market, I would imagine. The Betfair rules for next Conservative leader, for example, stipulate the announcement of the next permanent leader after Boris Johnson, so that clearly excludes Raab acting up. The next PM market, OTOH, would apparently be settled on the basis of whomsoever is next stated to be the PM on the gov.uk website after Boris Johnson, so Raab would presumably count if nominated as a caretaker in the event that Johnson resigns before the Tory party can elect a new leader.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083

    Stocky said:

    According to the Institute for Government:

    "If a prime minister resigned suddenly or died, and there was a majority government, it would be up to the cabinet to recommend an immediate successor to the Queen. This could be done with the expectation that his or her role would be temporary, pending the election of a new party leader. However, while political parties usually have the ability to appoint an ‘acting leader’ if the leader resigns or is incapacitated, there is no formal ‘acting prime minister’ role. He or she would be prime minister until they chose to resign or if their cabinet forced them out."

    So for those betting on Next PM markets or Next CP leader market, would Raab count?

    It depends. What does your bookmaker say? Betfair will settle on whoever is named on the government's own web site. The Raab/May school of thought is they might be the actual Prime Minister for a brief period between Boris flouncing and a new leader being elected.
    What's the sequence if Boris is removed as party leader but refuses to resign as PM? I assume it goes Tory party leadership election -> vote of no confidence in government (whipped by new party leader to vote NC) -> HMQ invites new Tory party leader to form a government? Could be interesting if the membership vote returns a party leader backed by only a minority of Tory MPs.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,502

    Media reporting Meat Loaf died of COVID.

    Oh dear, he'd have been very high risk given his age combined with weight. A true musical legend either way, but I hope he wasn't an unvaccinated Darwin Award winner. RIP either way but sad if that is the case.
    He didn't confirm that he was vaccinated but last year when the vaccines were being rolled out he said he wouldn't be controlled, so I'm guessing he was unvaxxed.

    In shocking news, he wasn't a fan of masks either,
    Shakes head....another glimpse that in the US handling of COVID all round from the top to the bottom has been terrible, from federal to individuals.

    As I noted at the start of this thread, while most developed countries now suffer a fraction of the deaths in this wave despite enormous numbers of cases, the US deaths are basically as high as wave one, and still not seen Omicron deaths really kicking in yet.
    Given his age and weight you would have thought he would have willingly taken the vaccines but you cannot always reason with stupidity.
    The level of anti-vaxxer nonsense in the US is mind boggling. Still only 25% boostered.
    What's strange is that you'd think almost everyone who's had two doses would be happy to have a third. Unless there are supply problems. (Almost wrote "issues").
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,076

    Sandpit said:

    Talking of crypto....and what people do after politics...Bercow doing Cameo. Just embarrassing that people prostitute themselves like this.

    https://twitter.com/CryptoBoole/status/1484180838866571264?s=20

    LOL how the mighty have fallen. He can’t even put his camera the right way round.

    Now, Cameo was a funny pandemic-era way to get an out-of-work actor or comedian to say happy birthday to your friend, but surely this sort of stunt raises all sorts of questions about advertising regulations?
    It's amusing as I've said before I think we pay our politicians too much and it'd be better if their pay was more closely linked to citizens pay in general. I believe in the 90s an MP typically got two times average income and now it's three times and I don't think that's healthy.

    Others have said they think MPs are underpaid compared to the private sector.

    While a tiny, tiny minority of the private sector may be worth more than MPs that's far from the case for all MPs as the likes of Bercow etc whoring themselves post politics helps demonstrate. As does the desperation in many MPs to do anything to stay loyal to the Party and keep their seat, because if they lose their seat they lose their job and there £84k+ salary they'd never achieve in the real world.
    The first problem is - what are MPs really?

    - Top management? If so, they are underpaid.
    - Middle management?
    - Social Workers with a fancy title? If so, they are overpaid

    You multiply that by a social expectation that an MP has a nice place in London, and big house for entertaining is their constituency.......

    I would say Ministers are top management, and they get paid extra as a result.

    Whip holding backbench MPs ... Not so much. Not quite social workers but not too far off.
    The other thing I wonder about is creating a professional career path - real career development and training for MPs.

    With pay to match.
  • Andy_JS said:

    Media reporting Meat Loaf died of COVID.

    Oh dear, he'd have been very high risk given his age combined with weight. A true musical legend either way, but I hope he wasn't an unvaccinated Darwin Award winner. RIP either way but sad if that is the case.
    He didn't confirm that he was vaccinated but last year when the vaccines were being rolled out he said he wouldn't be controlled, so I'm guessing he was unvaxxed.

    In shocking news, he wasn't a fan of masks either,
    Shakes head....another glimpse that in the US handling of COVID all round from the top to the bottom has been terrible, from federal to individuals.

    As I noted at the start of this thread, while most developed countries now suffer a fraction of the deaths in this wave despite enormous numbers of cases, the US deaths are basically as high as wave one, and still not seen Omicron deaths really kicking in yet.
    Given his age and weight you would have thought he would have willingly taken the vaccines but you cannot always reason with stupidity.
    The level of anti-vaxxer nonsense in the US is mind boggling. Still only 25% boostered.
    What's strange is that you'd think almost everyone who's had two doses would be happy to have a third. Unless there are supply problems. (Almost wrote "issues").
    A certain percentage will be that they got covid since then and think they don't need to top up, especially anybody who was hesitant to begin with. But again the US is a massive outlier in this level of hesitancy to a third jab.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,914
    Sandpit said:

    Mr. Eagles, what's your view on cryptocurrency?

    Pretty much everyone with a technology or finance background has the same view of cryptocurrency, or at least cryptocurrencies currently available.

    A view which isn’t helped much, by the fact that the people pushing them hard were mostly selling Majorcan timeshares three years ago.
    Bitcoin (and perhaps one or two others) is unusual in that it functions as a commodity, whereas most other cryptos are esssentially unregulated securities - penny stocks, pump and dump scams. NFTs are just speculation + money laundering.

    The reason why bitcoin is interesting is because it is the first example of digital scarcity and a solution to the byzantine generals problem. This, along with the power expended to secure the network, give it value (how much value is up to the market to determine).

    It's dangerous to lump all crypto into the "worthless" pile just because 99% are unregulated securities and scams. Most of them are pale imitators of the original, which has value due to the above.

    We are in the pets.com era of the crypto bubble, most cryptos will fade away and be nothing more than footnotes in a decade, but there will likely be a FAANG group of cryptos that rise out of the current speculative mania and go on to become a part of daily life for most people around the globe.

    Three valuable use cases are the ability to bring banking to the unbanked (huge in developing nations), remit money without paying 25% western union fees (again, huge in developing nations) and valuable in countries where the currency is weak or subject to hyperinflation (which is why places like Turkey have tried to ban it).

    The idea that crypto is nothing more than rampant speculation without an underlying use case is a very western, developed world-centric viewpoint.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,386
    Polruan said:

    Stocky said:

    According to the Institute for Government:

    "If a prime minister resigned suddenly or died, and there was a majority government, it would be up to the cabinet to recommend an immediate successor to the Queen. This could be done with the expectation that his or her role would be temporary, pending the election of a new party leader. However, while political parties usually have the ability to appoint an ‘acting leader’ if the leader resigns or is incapacitated, there is no formal ‘acting prime minister’ role. He or she would be prime minister until they chose to resign or if their cabinet forced them out."

    So for those betting on Next PM markets or Next CP leader market, would Raab count?

    It depends. What does your bookmaker say? Betfair will settle on whoever is named on the government's own web site. The Raab/May school of thought is they might be the actual Prime Minister for a brief period between Boris flouncing and a new leader being elected.
    What's the sequence if Boris is removed as party leader but refuses to resign as PM? I assume it goes Tory party leadership election -> vote of no confidence in government (whipped by new party leader to vote NC) -> HMQ invites new Tory party leader to form a government? Could be interesting if the membership vote returns a party leader backed by only a minority of Tory MPs.
    Who would institute a VONC in that scenario? It has to be the official Opposition.
    Am not aware that the leader of the Tory Party has that gift.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,836
    Applicant said:

    AlistairM said:

    pigeon said:

    AlistairM said:

    Indie SAGE still banging the drum for more restrictions:

    https://www.independentsage.org/covid-protection-and-support-strategy-january-2022/

    From a fortnight ago, although I doubt they've changed their minds.

    The ongoing attempts to rebrand "restrictions" as "protections" are risible.
    Sorry, missed that. Someone retweeted that.

    I do genuinely wonder what circumstances would be required for Indie SAGE to say that restrictions can be eased.
    Zero cases for 10 years?
    Insufficient for that fraction of the academic community that wants some of the "protections" to stay forever, though.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,716
    Eabhal said:

    Based at Jan 2020 = 100, for each country (England has lower unemployment rates generally, but I'm looking for Covid effect).

    Peak pandemic unemployment related benefits:
    England 217
    Wales 198
    Scotland 205
    NI 209

    November 2021 unemployment related benefits:
    England 146
    Wales 121
    Scotland 120
    NI 136

    Shows that in England the economic harm of the pandemic is far from over, and possibly explains the very different approach taken by Drakeford/Sturgeon.

    It probably correlates highly with public sector employment. All stats publicly available from DWP.

    England is going through a version of the "great resignation" right now and lots of people reassessing their work/life balance. COVID may result in structurally lower employment levels in London and the South East as older and wealthier people jack it in having realised that there's more to life than work.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,103
    Stocky said:

    Leon said:

    In happier news. My 100% record of having mildly disappointing food (on my one previous Sri Lankan trip) has been easily shattered. It’s all good so far. Black Pork Curry lunch here was absolutely excellent

    https://www.zomato.com/colombo/the-gallery-cafe-kollupitiya-colombo-03

    Colombo is a strange city. Poor, scruffy, yet in places intensely civilised. And stunned by the sun and heat into an amiable complacency

    Are there still lots of stray dogs lining the streets? Was when I was there. Plagued with them - a bit off-putting.
    Not one that I’ve seen. Not cats. In fact a decided absence by “3rd World” standards (are we still allowed to say 3rd World? What’s the replacement?)

    Perhaps there was a cull

    In other Sri Lankan news I have discovered that my hotel - which is very nice, and ridiculously cheap at about £40 a night (thankyou, Covid) has, along with its enormous rooftop infinity pool, a rooftop bar, rooftop jacuzzis, a louche little rooftop restaurant, and a decidedly, ah, unlaced atmosphere compared to the rest of slightly uptight Colombo

    No one is exactly policing the swimming costume policy in the hot tubs

    My hotel. I recommend it heartily, at this Covid price


    https://www.marinobeach.com/

    It would be considerably less appealing at £150 a pop
  • I believe a big problem with attracting top notch people to become an MP these days isn't just the money, it is the personal invasion. With everybody having a camera phone and social media, you will be under the magnifying glass every time you step out in public, not to mention all the abuse you constantly get online.

    While at the same time, you could be working a decent job, earn more than an MP, while nobody have a clue who you are.

    Alternatively for many MPs they'd have to work a real job, earn nowhere near as much as they do as an MP, while nobody has a clue who they are.

    The media focus narrows it down essentially to egotists who want to be known and view that as a positive not a negative.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,187
    Dura_Ace said:

    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    Scott_xP said:

    In just over two mins, Rory Stewart skewers Boris Johnson like a kebab - and every word rings completely true. Such minimalist clarity is impressive! https://twitter.com/mikegalsworthy/status/1484305993987067908

    I'm surprised that Johnson is being allowed to get away with this crap ...the most successful roll out anywhere .... 'the best vaccine program'... 'The best track and trace'....'the best economy in the G20' ....'The best recovery....The most sought after destination blah blah blah...."

    That isn't what the coronavirus figures show. We have the sixth biggest death toll in the world and a bigger death toll than any country in the EU.

    What exactly have we done that makes us the best?

    I went to Chester two days ago and there were more rough sleepers than I've even seen in Barcelona. It was back to the dark days of Thatcher when you couldn't pass a doorway in the West End without stepping over a cardboard box with someone sleeping in it.

    Well done Rory!

    In terms of Covid deaths per head Poland, Italy, Bulgaria, Hungary, Croatia, Lithuania, Slovenia, Slovakia and the Czech Republic are all worse than us now.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_death_rates_by_country

    Germany and the USA have more homeless than the UK
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_homeless_population
    That is massively misleading by you. From the table you link to:

    The German homeless number "*Includes "around 441,000 asylum seekers and refugees in temporary accommodation"; only 4.9/10000 people are without any shelter"

    The US total is higher than the UK but in terms of % population they are massively lower - 17.7 per 10,000 compared to the UK value of 54 per 10,000. That we have a higher rate of homelessness than the US should be a matter of shame to any British Government.
    No he's not being misleading in this instance since people with temporary shelter are defined as homeless in the UK too. So you should compare the UK's raw figure with Germany's raw figure for a like-for-like comparison.

    This is like discussions about poverty, but where poverty has been redefined to mean inequality. International tables and comparisons are absurd if you aren't comparing like for like.

    There is no way the real homeless situation in the UK is worse than America's. Any drive or walk through British and American cities would confirm that.
    When the UK takes in a million or so refugees like Germany has over the last few years then you might have a point. Until then you are just talking bullshit. Germany has a short term issue related to accepting all those refugees. The UK has a long standing and endemic problem with homelessness which no Government has been taking seriously.
    The UK has taken in millions of migrants over the last few years, net migration is considerably higher in the UK than it has been in Germany for many years now which inevitably affects the housing situation. Either way though on a like-for-like comparison the German situation is worse.

    However I was primarily responding to your nonsense claim that the homeless situation in the UK is worse than the USA. Stop and think about that for thirty seconds please and think for thirty seconds about the fact that, like in Germany, those in temporary accommodation are classed as "homeless" in the UK.

    Now after stopping and thinking do you still want to claim the homeless situation in the UK is worse than the USA? Really?
    Yet again you are being thoroughly dishonest in your comparisons. The UK has taken in millions of migrants who came here with work and with money to pay for accommodation. Germany has taken in millions with nothing but the clothes on their back. The comparison you make is simply stupid and ignorant.
    No that isn't true whatsoever.

    The housing supply is [barring construction/demolitions] relatively fixed. A house doesn't care whether its occupants have money or not, are asylum seekers or workers, or so on and so forth.

    More people coming here than leaving means more houses are required whether that's for asylum seekers or immigrants. Asylum seekers are no more a negative for housing demand than any other immigrants are and its wrong for your to characterise them as such.

    However anyway under free movement it is simply categorically not the case that people could only migrate here if they had the money to pay for their accommodation. We had no visa pre-screening for wealth or income or ability to pay for housing.

    We had millions arrive from Eastern Europe with "the clothes on their back" who did not arrive with the cash to pay for British housing costs. But we did have housing benefit etc available, but yes just like with asylum seekers, that means in times people ending up in temporary accommodation. Especially since there was no glut of empty housing available for people to move into, like there was in parts of Germany.
    That is just fantasy from start to finish. You will say anything to justify your indefensible positions.
    So you really think everyone who arrived in the UK from Eastern Europe arrived with enough money to pay British accommodation costs already in the bank?

    Over a million Romanians in the UK according to the settled status visa scheme. You think every single one of them arrived with enough money already in the bank saved up in Romania to pay for British housing costs and none of them came with just their shirt on their back?

    If so you're being indefensible. And I say that as someone who's a big fan of immigration and welcomes the fact that many people arrived here with nothing but the clothes on their back and have worked hard since arriving here. But to deny it happened because it suits your agenda is just absurd.

    I'd be perfectly happy to see restrictions on movement abolished and free movement restored, so long as that's twinned with restrictions on building abolished and the requirement for planning consent to be abolished too. No visa requirements, no planning consent requirements, should go hand-in-hand. But we've had one without the other and many people quite reasonably took advantage of that with nothing but their clothes on their back to start a new life in this country - and good luck to them too. Why would you pour scorn on them for doing so?
    What makes me laugh about your posts is your absurd absolutism. Where did Richard say suggest or imply that "everyone" arriving from elsewhere had loads of money on arrival? Some arrived here to do actual jobs with contracts. Others arrived to beg. It is neither everyone nor no-one.
    "The UK has taken in millions of migrants who came here with work and with money to pay for accommodation. "

    There was no visa pre-screening to check that the millions who came here had the money to pay for accommodation before they arrived.

    That it is neither everyone nor no-one verifies what I was saying. Thank you for agreeing with me.
    Nobody can even tell what the fuck you are arguing about at this point.
    Bartholomew originally wanted to say that Germany should be doing better on homelessness than the UK because Germany has had "significantly lower net migration" than the UK for many years.

    Ignoring the crapness of the argument (and the fact that nobody is sure whether or not Germany is in fact doing better or worse on homelessness), Bartholomew was unable to even provide any kind of source for the claim that the UK has had significantly more net migration than Germany, hence bizarre straw men
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    kyf_100 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Mr. Eagles, what's your view on cryptocurrency?

    Pretty much everyone with a technology or finance background has the same view of cryptocurrency, or at least cryptocurrencies currently available.

    A view which isn’t helped much, by the fact that the people pushing them hard were mostly selling Majorcan timeshares three years ago.
    Bitcoin (and perhaps one or two others) is unusual in that it functions as a commodity, whereas most other cryptos are esssentially unregulated securities - penny stocks, pump and dump scams. NFTs are just speculation + money laundering.

    The reason why bitcoin is interesting is because it is the first example of digital scarcity and a solution to the byzantine generals problem. This, along with the power expended to secure the network, give it value (how much value is up to the market to determine).

    It's dangerous to lump all crypto into the "worthless" pile just because 99% are unregulated securities and scams. Most of them are pale imitators of the original, which has value due to the above.

    We are in the pets.com era of the crypto bubble, most cryptos will fade away and be nothing more than footnotes in a decade, but there will likely be a FAANG group of cryptos that rise out of the current speculative mania and go on to become a part of daily life for most people around the globe.

    Three valuable use cases are the ability to bring banking to the unbanked (huge in developing nations), remit money without paying 25% western union fees (again, huge in developing nations) and valuable in countries where the currency is weak or subject to hyperinflation (which is why places like Turkey have tried to ban it).

    The idea that crypto is nothing more than rampant speculation without an underlying use case is a very western, developed world-centric viewpoint.
    IF bitcoin has a value, its surely to hide assets from kleptocracies? That's why China banned it, surely. They don't want an asset class they can't track or confiscate from people who incur their displeasure.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,572
    MaxPB said:

    Eabhal said:

    Based at Jan 2020 = 100, for each country (England has lower unemployment rates generally, but I'm looking for Covid effect).

    Peak pandemic unemployment related benefits:
    England 217
    Wales 198
    Scotland 205
    NI 209

    November 2021 unemployment related benefits:
    England 146
    Wales 121
    Scotland 120
    NI 136

    Shows that in England the economic harm of the pandemic is far from over, and possibly explains the very different approach taken by Drakeford/Sturgeon.

    It probably correlates highly with public sector employment. All stats publicly available from DWP.

    England is going through a version of the "great resignation" right now and lots of people reassessing their work/life balance. COVID may result in structurally lower employment levels in London and the South East as older and wealthier people jack it in having realised that there's more to life than work.
    This is benefits though. Still nearly 50% higher down south compared with before the pandemic.

    I doubt many people are quitting their jobs (particularly given inflation, £20 uplift cut, change to taper rate incentive) to live off benefits.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,572
    Leon said:

    Stocky said:

    Leon said:

    In happier news. My 100% record of having mildly disappointing food (on my one previous Sri Lankan trip) has been easily shattered. It’s all good so far. Black Pork Curry lunch here was absolutely excellent

    https://www.zomato.com/colombo/the-gallery-cafe-kollupitiya-colombo-03

    Colombo is a strange city. Poor, scruffy, yet in places intensely civilised. And stunned by the sun and heat into an amiable complacency

    Are there still lots of stray dogs lining the streets? Was when I was there. Plagued with them - a bit off-putting.
    Not one that I’ve seen. Not cats. In fact a decided absence by “3rd World” standards (are we still allowed to say 3rd World? What’s the replacement?)

    Perhaps there was a cull

    In other Sri Lankan news I have discovered that my hotel - which is very nice, and ridiculously cheap at about £40 a night (thankyou, Covid) has, along with its enormous rooftop infinity pool, a rooftop bar, rooftop jacuzzis, a louche little rooftop restaurant, and a decidedly, ah, unlaced atmosphere compared to the rest of slightly uptight Colombo

    No one is exactly policing the swimming costume policy in the hot tubs

    My hotel. I recommend it heartily, at this Covid price


    https://www.marinobeach.com/

    It would be considerably less appealing at £150 a pop
    Huh, is there a correlation between poverty and street cats?

    See hundreds of them in Greece and Turkey.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,839
    edited January 2022
    MISTY said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Mr. Eagles, what's your view on cryptocurrency?

    Pretty much everyone with a technology or finance background has the same view of cryptocurrency, or at least cryptocurrencies currently available.

    A view which isn’t helped much, by the fact that the people pushing them hard were mostly selling Majorcan timeshares three years ago.
    Bitcoin (and perhaps one or two others) is unusual in that it functions as a commodity, whereas most other cryptos are esssentially unregulated securities - penny stocks, pump and dump scams. NFTs are just speculation + money laundering.

    The reason why bitcoin is interesting is because it is the first example of digital scarcity and a solution to the byzantine generals problem. This, along with the power expended to secure the network, give it value (how much value is up to the market to determine).

    It's dangerous to lump all crypto into the "worthless" pile just because 99% are unregulated securities and scams. Most of them are pale imitators of the original, which has value due to the above.

    We are in the pets.com era of the crypto bubble, most cryptos will fade away and be nothing more than footnotes in a decade, but there will likely be a FAANG group of cryptos that rise out of the current speculative mania and go on to become a part of daily life for most people around the globe.

    Three valuable use cases are the ability to bring banking to the unbanked (huge in developing nations), remit money without paying 25% western union fees (again, huge in developing nations) and valuable in countries where the currency is weak or subject to hyperinflation (which is why places like Turkey have tried to ban it).

    The idea that crypto is nothing more than rampant speculation without an underlying use case is a very western, developed world-centric viewpoint.
    IF bitcoin has a value, its surely to hide assets from kleptocracies? That's why China banned it, surely. They don't want an asset class they can't track or confiscate from people who incur their displeasure.
    The notion BTC is untrackable is actually one of the biggest falsehoods. Its the opposite, it is so easy to track people who are shifting large amounts, even with tumblers.

    China bans are about control and the fact the miners were causing issues with power supply, not they can't track it. They want a digital currency of their own, so they then can eliminate all cash and then instantly they can spy on everything everybody does from one central system.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,720

    I believe a big problem with attracting top notch people to become an MP these days isn't just the money, it is the personal invasion. With everybody having a camera phone and social media, you will be under the magnifying glass every time you step out in public, not to mention all the abuse you constantly get online.

    While at the same time, you could be working a decent job, earn more than an MP, while nobody have a clue who you are.

    Less than 5% of the UK population earns more than an MP does and the average reality or TV or film star gets papped far more than the average MP
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,720
    ClippP said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    And he's got there faster than Corbyn did.

    Boris is worse than Corbyn

    Can we agree they are both terrible?
    Will Johnson's successor kick Boris Johnson out of the Tory Party?

    Would be nice to expel the sleazy. disgusting, liar out of the Tory Party.

    Remove the whip for starters for his defence of the bully Priti Pratel.
    Given at least 40% of Tory MPs will still vote for Boris even if he loses a VONC no, it would be a recipe for civil war in the party.

    Even Starmer has not dared expel Corbyn despite the fact he lost the 2019 general election to Johnson by a landslide and only 40 Labour MPs ever voted for him
    Food for thought there, young HY. When civil war breaks our properly in the Conservative Party, which side will you be on?
    The winning one of course!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,760

    DavidL said:

    Troubling story in the Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/jan/21/hundreds-stripped-british-citizenship-last-15-years-study-finds

    I must confess that I though Begum was an extremely rare case but it appears not. The success of the government in the Supreme Court on this suggests to me that these powers are too extensive and profoundly undemocratic.

    The old "Well, we have this power. So obviously we *have* to use it"....
    Indeed, and a Supreme Court who's view of the law is much more based upon form than substance. This is an interesting article about how the Supreme Court has developed under Lord Reed's leadership and it has several harsh things to say about the Begum decision: https://lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v44/n02/conor-gearty/in-the-shallow-end

    I think traditionalists may give Reed higher marks than the author and rather deprecated Baroness Hales' inclination to meddle but for me the indifference about the implications for those whose plight is before them is a concern. The law has to be human or it simply becomes a weapon of oppression.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,088
    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Polruan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Polruan said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Farooq said:

    And he's got there faster than Corbyn did.

    Boris is worse than Corbyn

    Can we agree they are both terrible?
    At least Corbyn made a dignified exit. Well, relatively...
    Is that the same Corbyn who refused to resign after losing a Vote of No Confidence amongst his MPs, then lost an election but acted like he won it, then lost another election which this time his parties biggest defeat since before WWII?

    I can't see Boris following that path. If he loses a Vote of No Confidence he'll be out, unlike Corbyn. Nor will he lose not one but two General Elections.
    Johnson will leave with less dignity than the man-baby across the pond, having further Ratnered his brand.
    Actually, I've been messaging someone who knows Boris Johnson quite well, he reckons he might remain an MP and keep some dignity about him.

    If he is ousted he sees it as his Churchill after the Dardanelles campaign moment, a great man forced out by pygmies.

    Then he will be back when the country needs him.
    I suggested the other day that his level of delusion about his destiny is such that he'd sit on the backbenches waiting for the day when the world needs its king back. He'd be a complete nightmare for whoever loses GE24 for the Tories, managing to convince a loyal band of followers that he was unfairly removed as leader, was still a proven winner, and the only chance they had of removing PM Starmer in GE29.
    Indeed. If Sunak replaces Boris as PM now and loses the next general election to Starmer, then if Boris is still an MP he could run for Leader of the Opposition. If Starmer loses popularity like Biden has, Boris could prepare to challenge PM Starmer at the next election as Trump is preparing to challenge President Biden again at the next US election.

    Remember too Berlusconi won, lost, won, lost again several times in Italy
    That is your maddest post EVER! We are down a deep rabbit hole if you can seriously compare the UK to Italian election likelihoods.
    I'm not an expert on Italian politics but I'm not sure this is a mad comparison. Boris is a salesman who's excellent at convincing multiple groups with conflicting priorities that he is the only one who can deliver what they all want. It's an ideal profile for insurgent/opposition popularity followed by brief periods in power.

    And we're probably about to have our 5th PM in 12 years which doesn't look like a model of stability.
    I could easily see Johnson staying on as an MP for the money and proximity to the vertical of power.

    He'll end up being PM again as the only possible leader that can get the UK back into the EU.
    Not exactly Nixon and China.
    And most likely to provoke a French non.
    Yep - "donnez nous un break" would be the French reaction, I think.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,777
    edited January 2022
    Underneath those photos is another story:-
    Covid-hit Royal Stoke [hospital] calls in Army due to crippling staff shortages
    https://www.stokesentinel.co.uk/news/stoke-on-trent-news/covid-hit-royal-stoke-calls-6523579

    Covid is not yet all over bar the shouting.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,720

    Sandpit said:

    Talking of crypto....and what people do after politics...Bercow doing Cameo. Just embarrassing that people prostitute themselves like this.

    https://twitter.com/CryptoBoole/status/1484180838866571264?s=20

    LOL how the mighty have fallen. He can’t even put his camera the right way round.

    Now, Cameo was a funny pandemic-era way to get an out-of-work actor or comedian to say happy birthday to your friend, but surely this sort of stunt raises all sorts of questions about advertising regulations?
    It's amusing as I've said before I think we pay our politicians too much and it'd be better if their pay was more closely linked to citizens pay in general. I believe in the 90s an MP typically got two times average income and now it's three times and I don't think that's healthy.

    Others have said they think MPs are underpaid compared to the private sector.

    While a tiny, tiny minority of the private sector may be worth more than MPs that's far from the case for all MPs as the likes of Bercow etc whoring themselves post politics helps demonstrate. As does the desperation in many MPs to do anything to stay loyal to the Party and keep their seat, because if they lose their seat they lose their job and there £84k+ salary they'd never achieve in the real world.
    The first problem is - what are MPs really?

    - Top management? If so, they are underpaid.
    - Middle management?
    - Social Workers with a fancy title? If so, they are overpaid

    You multiply that by a social expectation that an MP has a nice place in London, and big house for entertaining is their constituency.......

    Only the Cabinet are top management. Junior ministers are middle management. Most MPs are legislators and social workers/case workers
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,572
    edited January 2022
    HYUFD said:

    I believe a big problem with attracting top notch people to become an MP these days isn't just the money, it is the personal invasion. With everybody having a camera phone and social media, you will be under the magnifying glass every time you step out in public, not to mention all the abuse you constantly get online.

    While at the same time, you could be working a decent job, earn more than an MP, while nobody have a clue who you are.

    Less than 5% of the UK population earns more than an MP does and the average reality or TV or film star gets papped far more than the average MP
    The whole stabbing thing puts me off. I'm far too inclined to mouth off on various controversial topics, probably safer to do that here than in parliament.

    I think you need to assess this stuff as income after tax and present as a percentage of the median.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,839
    edited January 2022
    HYUFD said:

    I believe a big problem with attracting top notch people to become an MP these days isn't just the money, it is the personal invasion. With everybody having a camera phone and social media, you will be under the magnifying glass every time you step out in public, not to mention all the abuse you constantly get online.

    While at the same time, you could be working a decent job, earn more than an MP, while nobody have a clue who you are.

    Less than 5% of the UK population earns more than an MP does and the average reality or TV or film star gets papped far more than the average MP
    That's why I said top notch people. A top notch person in their field in the UK can earn as much if not more than an MP in terms of base salary. Even if restrict it to a bit less than an MP, they still have massive more privacy nor have to put with abuse or doing a surgery or hosting an event for this or that.
  • kamski said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    Scott_xP said:

    In just over two mins, Rory Stewart skewers Boris Johnson like a kebab - and every word rings completely true. Such minimalist clarity is impressive! https://twitter.com/mikegalsworthy/status/1484305993987067908

    I'm surprised that Johnson is being allowed to get away with this crap ...the most successful roll out anywhere .... 'the best vaccine program'... 'The best track and trace'....'the best economy in the G20' ....'The best recovery....The most sought after destination blah blah blah...."

    That isn't what the coronavirus figures show. We have the sixth biggest death toll in the world and a bigger death toll than any country in the EU.

    What exactly have we done that makes us the best?

    I went to Chester two days ago and there were more rough sleepers than I've even seen in Barcelona. It was back to the dark days of Thatcher when you couldn't pass a doorway in the West End without stepping over a cardboard box with someone sleeping in it.

    Well done Rory!

    In terms of Covid deaths per head Poland, Italy, Bulgaria, Hungary, Croatia, Lithuania, Slovenia, Slovakia and the Czech Republic are all worse than us now.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_death_rates_by_country

    Germany and the USA have more homeless than the UK
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_homeless_population
    That is massively misleading by you. From the table you link to:

    The German homeless number "*Includes "around 441,000 asylum seekers and refugees in temporary accommodation"; only 4.9/10000 people are without any shelter"

    The US total is higher than the UK but in terms of % population they are massively lower - 17.7 per 10,000 compared to the UK value of 54 per 10,000. That we have a higher rate of homelessness than the US should be a matter of shame to any British Government.
    No he's not being misleading in this instance since people with temporary shelter are defined as homeless in the UK too. So you should compare the UK's raw figure with Germany's raw figure for a like-for-like comparison.

    This is like discussions about poverty, but where poverty has been redefined to mean inequality. International tables and comparisons are absurd if you aren't comparing like for like.

    There is no way the real homeless situation in the UK is worse than America's. Any drive or walk through British and American cities would confirm that.
    When the UK takes in a million or so refugees like Germany has over the last few years then you might have a point. Until then you are just talking bullshit. Germany has a short term issue related to accepting all those refugees. The UK has a long standing and endemic problem with homelessness which no Government has been taking seriously.
    The UK has taken in millions of migrants over the last few years, net migration is considerably higher in the UK than it has been in Germany for many years now which inevitably affects the housing situation. Either way though on a like-for-like comparison the German situation is worse.

    However I was primarily responding to your nonsense claim that the homeless situation in the UK is worse than the USA. Stop and think about that for thirty seconds please and think for thirty seconds about the fact that, like in Germany, those in temporary accommodation are classed as "homeless" in the UK.

    Now after stopping and thinking do you still want to claim the homeless situation in the UK is worse than the USA? Really?
    Yet again you are being thoroughly dishonest in your comparisons. The UK has taken in millions of migrants who came here with work and with money to pay for accommodation. Germany has taken in millions with nothing but the clothes on their back. The comparison you make is simply stupid and ignorant.
    No that isn't true whatsoever.

    The housing supply is [barring construction/demolitions] relatively fixed. A house doesn't care whether its occupants have money or not, are asylum seekers or workers, or so on and so forth.

    More people coming here than leaving means more houses are required whether that's for asylum seekers or immigrants. Asylum seekers are no more a negative for housing demand than any other immigrants are and its wrong for your to characterise them as such.

    However anyway under free movement it is simply categorically not the case that people could only migrate here if they had the money to pay for their accommodation. We had no visa pre-screening for wealth or income or ability to pay for housing.

    We had millions arrive from Eastern Europe with "the clothes on their back" who did not arrive with the cash to pay for British housing costs. But we did have housing benefit etc available, but yes just like with asylum seekers, that means in times people ending up in temporary accommodation. Especially since there was no glut of empty housing available for people to move into, like there was in parts of Germany.
    That is just fantasy from start to finish. You will say anything to justify your indefensible positions.
    So you really think everyone who arrived in the UK from Eastern Europe arrived with enough money to pay British accommodation costs already in the bank?

    Over a million Romanians in the UK according to the settled status visa scheme. You think every single one of them arrived with enough money already in the bank saved up in Romania to pay for British housing costs and none of them came with just their shirt on their back?

    If so you're being indefensible. And I say that as someone who's a big fan of immigration and welcomes the fact that many people arrived here with nothing but the clothes on their back and have worked hard since arriving here. But to deny it happened because it suits your agenda is just absurd.

    I'd be perfectly happy to see restrictions on movement abolished and free movement restored, so long as that's twinned with restrictions on building abolished and the requirement for planning consent to be abolished too. No visa requirements, no planning consent requirements, should go hand-in-hand. But we've had one without the other and many people quite reasonably took advantage of that with nothing but their clothes on their back to start a new life in this country - and good luck to them too. Why would you pour scorn on them for doing so?
    What makes me laugh about your posts is your absurd absolutism. Where did Richard say suggest or imply that "everyone" arriving from elsewhere had loads of money on arrival? Some arrived here to do actual jobs with contracts. Others arrived to beg. It is neither everyone nor no-one.
    "The UK has taken in millions of migrants who came here with work and with money to pay for accommodation. "

    There was no visa pre-screening to check that the millions who came here had the money to pay for accommodation before they arrived.

    That it is neither everyone nor no-one verifies what I was saying. Thank you for agreeing with me.
    Nobody can even tell what the fuck you are arguing about at this point.
    Bartholomew originally wanted to say that Germany should be doing better on homelessness than the UK because Germany has had "significantly lower net migration" than the UK for many years.

    Ignoring the crapness of the argument (and the fact that nobody is sure whether or not Germany is in fact doing better or worse on homelessness), Bartholomew was unable to even provide any kind of source for the claim that the UK has had significantly more net migration than Germany, hence bizarre straw men
    Are you serious?

    Source: Google's population statistics

    Germany population 2000: 82.21 mn people.
    Germany population 2020: 83.24 mn people.
    Net increase in population in 20 years: 1.03 mn people = 1.25%

    UK population 2000: 58.89 mn people
    UK population 2020: 67.22 mn people.
    Net increase in population in 20 years: 8.33 mn people = 14.14%

    Now in my world a 14% increase in population in a generation causes a bigger housing crisis than a 1% increase in population in a generation. Your mileage may vary.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    edited January 2022
    Astonishing figures.

    Johnson is toast with the electorate. The political question now is whether the tories have the gumption and fight to boot the liability out. Or whether they are going like collective lemmings to the slaughter.

    The economic, fiscal, social, moral and spiritual question is one for the nation: whether we're going to have to endure another 28 months of this national wrecking ball.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,327
    Leon said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    tlg86 said:

    Media reporting Meat Loaf died of COVID.

    Ooh, did anyone have him in the deadpool?
    Nope. Although Bat Out of Hell is a great covid theme tune given its origin.

    I reckon Johnson is going to get it again and cark it handing a dramatic victory to paristonda.

    That would be #classicboris
    Something of a failure in PB as a forecasting website if it didn’t have a fat guy literally called ‘Meat Loaf’ in its roster of potential imminent stiffs
    Sadly your stalker has followed you to Columbo... That guy needs to get a life.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,914
    MISTY said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Mr. Eagles, what's your view on cryptocurrency?

    Pretty much everyone with a technology or finance background has the same view of cryptocurrency, or at least cryptocurrencies currently available.

    A view which isn’t helped much, by the fact that the people pushing them hard were mostly selling Majorcan timeshares three years ago.
    Bitcoin (and perhaps one or two others) is unusual in that it functions as a commodity, whereas most other cryptos are esssentially unregulated securities - penny stocks, pump and dump scams. NFTs are just speculation + money laundering.

    The reason why bitcoin is interesting is because it is the first example of digital scarcity and a solution to the byzantine generals problem. This, along with the power expended to secure the network, give it value (how much value is up to the market to determine).

    It's dangerous to lump all crypto into the "worthless" pile just because 99% are unregulated securities and scams. Most of them are pale imitators of the original, which has value due to the above.

    We are in the pets.com era of the crypto bubble, most cryptos will fade away and be nothing more than footnotes in a decade, but there will likely be a FAANG group of cryptos that rise out of the current speculative mania and go on to become a part of daily life for most people around the globe.

    Three valuable use cases are the ability to bring banking to the unbanked (huge in developing nations), remit money without paying 25% western union fees (again, huge in developing nations) and valuable in countries where the currency is weak or subject to hyperinflation (which is why places like Turkey have tried to ban it).

    The idea that crypto is nothing more than rampant speculation without an underlying use case is a very western, developed world-centric viewpoint.
    IF bitcoin has a value, its surely to hide assets from kleptocracies? That's why China banned it, surely. They don't want an asset class they can't track or confiscate from people who incur their displeasure.
    Yes, that is another use case. Although it's questionable since places like China have banned it and Russia are in the process of banning it. So while you can "hide" your wealth and transport it across borders, the government can make it very hard for you to purchase the crypto in the first place. A good analogy would be trying to buy dollars during the USSR era.

    I was focusing on some of the other, lesser discussed use cases to point out bitcoin's value to people the current system impoverishes. Globally, about 1.7bn people are unbanked, a bitcoin wallet with lightning integration means anyone with a mobile phone can be their own bank and transfer money anywhere in the world quickly and cheaply. That is truly revolutionary IMHO.

    The speed at which crypto has gained a foothold in Nigeria, for example, is of far more interest to me than some timeshare scammer shilling million dollar NFTs.

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2021/jul/31/out-of-control-and-rising-why-bitcoin-has-nigerias-government-in-a-panic
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,677
    edited January 2022
    Andy_JS said:

    Interesting recent video from Dr John Campbell (nursing doctorate) entitled "Freedom of information revelation"

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9UHvwWWcjYw

    Mentioned on here a few days ago.

    Things to note:
    1. Elderly people are the dominant group in Covid deaths
    2. Elderly people would very, very often have some other condition that would merit at least a 'contributing' cause on the death certificate.

    So it is unsurprising that very few people have only Covid on a death certificate. Many with other causes listed were still, very definitely, killed by Covid

    (For background, I've worked with ONS death data derived from death certificates for a number of years. The cetificate fields are interpreted differently and filled in differently by different people. They have their uses, but you need to be aware of the limitations around e.g. cause of death)

    Edit: So, if you have absolutely no comorbidities then you're likely at very low risk from Covid (which, of course, we knew already). You're also at very low risk of being elderly :wink:
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    dixiedean said:

    Polruan said:

    Stocky said:

    According to the Institute for Government:

    "If a prime minister resigned suddenly or died, and there was a majority government, it would be up to the cabinet to recommend an immediate successor to the Queen. This could be done with the expectation that his or her role would be temporary, pending the election of a new party leader. However, while political parties usually have the ability to appoint an ‘acting leader’ if the leader resigns or is incapacitated, there is no formal ‘acting prime minister’ role. He or she would be prime minister until they chose to resign or if their cabinet forced them out."

    So for those betting on Next PM markets or Next CP leader market, would Raab count?

    It depends. What does your bookmaker say? Betfair will settle on whoever is named on the government's own web site. The Raab/May school of thought is they might be the actual Prime Minister for a brief period between Boris flouncing and a new leader being elected.
    What's the sequence if Boris is removed as party leader but refuses to resign as PM? I assume it goes Tory party leadership election -> vote of no confidence in government (whipped by new party leader to vote NC) -> HMQ invites new Tory party leader to form a government? Could be interesting if the membership vote returns a party leader backed by only a minority of Tory MPs.
    Who would institute a VONC in that scenario? It has to be the official Opposition.
    Am not aware that the leader of the Tory Party has that gift.
    I don't think that's right. It may be that the convention is that the government is only obliged to give Parliamentary time for the VONC if it's instigated by the opposition. Looking into it further, though, I am not sure what happens under FTPA if the PM refuses to resign. A VONC leads to an election within 14 days unless there's a subsequent VOC in the same or an alternative government. If the PM hasn't resigned, and HMQ doesn't fire him, can an alternative government be in place to be voted upon?

    It would be a massive abuse of constitutional convention for a PM to refuse to resign in this situation, of course, but that doesn't really provide any comfort in the case of Boris.
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