The Queen is a class act who understands concepts like duty, honour and leadership. It's hard to imagine a person who embodies fewer of her many virtues than Boris Johnson.
Boris, like Andrew, believes the rules don't apply to him.
If Brady comes up short of the 54 letters, and the Met. don't investigate Partygate, Johnson is absolutely right.
I remain of my now oft-stated view that:
Boris is going nowhere.
The PCP are weak, weak, weak.
Gone by month end. He's got Gray report plus further dom revelations on top of a disastrous day today. Nowhere to hide.
All that being said... Denmark has had a bloody brilliant Covid.
It successfully pulled off risk stratification. It had fewer restrictions for most of 2021 than the UK. It's economy reached pre-crisis levels in Summer 2021, before pretty much anywhere else in Europe. Government debt-to-GDP barely moved during Covid.
Oh yeah, and it actually recorded negative excess deaths.
And it did all that without severing itself off from the world, storing up major problems for later.
I can't really fault their government's approach.
Yes, they've done very well.
The odd one is the Netherlands, a country which one would have expected to be equally well-organised and rational.
Sadiq Khan has announced that masks will continue to be mandatory on all Transport for London services, including the tube.
He can say what he likes, there's no legal basis for them beyond Thursday.
Of course there's a legal basis, it's the conditions of carriage. (As well as common sense and basic courtesy to others).
Conditions of carriage aren't a legal basis, this has been tested in court many times as well with terms of service and end user licence agreements. They are simply the terms of carriage, the worst they can do is ask you to leave the tube but the idea is ridiculous because it's unenforceable.
A good and reassuring thread on Omicron FFS alias Omicron sub-variant BA2
"As its been getting increasing attention recently, I'm going to write a short thread on what we currently know about BA.2. -what is BA.2? -what is BA.2 doing currently? -Should we be concerned about it?"
In brief, yes it is probably a bit more infectious than Omicron Classic - hence its rise in Denmark (and, surely, elsewhere, in time) - but it doesn't seem any more virulent and it doesn't seem to reinfect. It is a cause for mild concern, but no more, right now. Tho we need more data
On the other hand Denmark is in a bit of a pickle:
"1/2 The 12th national record in Europe today comes in #Denmark.
38,759 #Covid19 cases detected in the last 24 hours. That's >5,000 higher than yesterday's old record and a rise of more than 50% on last Wednesday.
The 7 day rate now reaches 4,970 AD/M which means that 0.5% of #Denmark's entire population is being infected with #Covid19 every day. Almost 3.5% in the last seven days alone. 16 more Covid-linked deaths. Covid patients hospitalised up 11 to 821 The ICU patient number is up one to 50"
Meanwhile, there are SOME - not many but SOME - experts who are seriously anxious that BA2 may mean reinfections - ie getting Delta or Omicron Classic will not defend you from Omicron FFS
The country that seems most odd is France, 460k infections reported yesterday and seemingly no end in sight. In the meantime it looks as though the ONS death data for England and Wales has decoupled from the dashboard data indicating around 30% of deaths for January are "with COVID" because around 10m people have had it in the last 28 days.
Do we have age profile data for France? The concern I (and some others) had was that some countries have large numbers of elderly people without any vaccinations at all. These "large numbers" are not huge vs the population as a whole. But given the enormous differential in outcomes for COVID based on age...
France is quite similar to us, rather than say Italy.. Median Age = 42.3 For UK it is 40.6. Italy = 47.
France UK
Fascinating. I wonder why there is that sharp drop in population at around 73 in France? And the peak and then drop at about the same age in the UK? At fist I thought something to do with the end of the war but that doesn't work as it is a few years out.
73 is roughly 1949/50 birthdate. I'm intrigued by the hollowing out of the profile for ages 63-73 in the UK, which is birthdates of 1950-1960. Which seems to be missing in France.
It's various post-war sociological things I expect. Which may be delayed returns (Uk servicemen were demobbed over several years) generating more births, or NHS starting up, or rationing stopping people feeling confident, or waiting for stable new jobs, or various things.
As to why France is not hollowed out then, I am not sure. Did France's greater agrarian base help them recover more quickly?
I'm not sure how quickly French came home from eg Labour camps, or were demobbed from the Free French forces.
Or impact of war casualties, or which country had a larger baby boom post-war.
I did wonder about wartime effects - eg 70k UK war brides or 200k babies in France due to the occupation, but that would need some detailed work.
The UK data is based on 2020 numbers, so a 73 age would be 1947 birth.
I presume the immediate dip is then due to the austerity measures and food rationing?
Thanks for that.
Readingup about baby booms, France had the largest one in Eueope, and ours was split between 1940s and 1960s.
With the age data, think the way to read it was from top to bottom. There's some nice animations out there.
So, as stated, UK has a brief post-war boom but it takes until the 60s for the real boom to come through. You can even see the effect of the end of the 1970s in the data for the UK.
I post the USA as a final comparison.
note a smaller immediate boom, but then a large sustained growth in population.
I'm feeling more chipper than I have for a while. Johnson survives as a lame duck, his premiership destined to limp along in a way that makes John Major's post Black Wednesday look (to coin a phrase) strong and stable, and this time next week I shall be back at my deeply unfashionable and elitist Mayfair club with a couple of Martinis to start me off on an evening to celebrate the nights drawing out.
I am not chipper at all. I don't care about parties but I do care about the damage Johnson can do to our country and our society as long as he remains in power.
He's damaged whatever happens. Worst case we will see a return of cabinet government.
I said yesterday Arsenal are a joke of a club, if this proves to be true, then they should be relegated two divisions.
The Football Association is looking into a yellow card received by an Arsenal player in a Premier League fixture this season, amid concerns over suspicious betting patterns.
It is understood that bookmakers flagged to the FA an unusual amount of money placed on the Arsenal player being shown a yellow card during a Premier League game this season.
The FA told The Athletic: “The FA is aware of the matter in question and is looking into it.”
The Athletic knows the identity of the player in question but has agreed not to reveal it at this time due to privacy reasons.
Multiple gambling industry insiders have told The Athletic that the pattern of betting surrounding the player being shown a yellow card during the match was highly unusual.
Betting on the minutiae of sporting events, such as yellow cards, is a type of betting known as ‘spot betting’.
Regular betting during football matches sees people wager on an overall outcome — i.e. the winner of a game.
Spot betting, however, involves individual outcomes and poses more of an issue to governing bodies, because a single individual can decide the outcome of a market by, for example, conceding a corner in a particular ten minute interval.
This can turn a seemingly trivial incident into a moment worth tens of thousands of pounds.
Although spot fixing is considered a significant problem in football leagues around the world, in the Premier League it is thought to be very rare, because players are paid so much money.
The anecdote I've heard is a player thought a team mate was crap because his first pass of the game, pretty much every time, was hoofed into touch. Crap? No. Mates with money on a range of related bets ...
Sadiq Khan has announced that masks will continue to be mandatory on all Transport for London services, including the tube.
He can say what he likes, there's no legal basis for them beyond Thursday.
Of course there's a legal basis, it's the conditions of carriage. (As well as common sense and basic courtesy to others).
Conditions of carriage aren't a legal basis, this has been tested in court many times as well with terms of service and end user licence agreements. They are simply the terms of carriage, the worst they can do is ask you to leave the tube but the idea is ridiculous because it's unenforceable.
It would be perfectly enforecable, if they wanted to enforce it, just like any other terms of the conditions of carriage. It's regrettable that they don't because of fears of assault and disruption from a few arrogant yobs, but that is where we are.
My 2p worth of speculation as to the COVID "blip". The sharp rise before Xmas was driven by it being in London. It tailed off and fell as rural areas of the South rose to the top of the cases per 100k chart. That spread North. Now it is the conurbations of the NE and NW which are dominant. Hence faster spread? Just a theory.
I'm feeling more chipper than I have for a while. Johnson survives as a lame duck, his premiership destined to limp along in a way that makes John Major's post Black Wednesday look (to coin a phrase) strong and stable, and this time next week I shall be back at my deeply unfashionable and elitist Mayfair club with a couple of Martinis to start me off on an evening to celebrate the nights drawing out.
I am not chipper at all. I don't care about parties but I do care about the damage Johnson can do to our country and our society as long as he remains in power.
Today has been an interesting day for Johnson. A magnificent win at PMQs despite being utterly useless (I am not sure how it happened as Starmer was very good). And a victory lap for his defeat of Covid 19. Surely the polls will tighten now until the energy hikes bite in the Spring.
Ms Gray's report is now an irrelevance. I feel a bit of a dick writing all those emails to Alun Cairns demanding he write to Brady.
Am I the only one who doesn't like these references to the 2019 Conservatives MPs not being 'socialised' or 'properly trained' or 'they don't understand how things operate' ?
Given the rottenness in Westminster in general and Downing Street in particular I would suggest its the procedures and practices which are at fault.
Sadiq Khan has announced that masks will continue to be mandatory on all Transport for London services, including the tube.
He can say what he likes, there's no legal basis for them beyond Thursday.
Of course there's a legal basis, it's the conditions of carriage. (As well as common sense and basic courtesy to others).
Conditions of carriage aren't a legal basis, this has been tested in court many times as well with terms of service and end user licence agreements. They are simply the terms of carriage, the worst they can do is ask you to leave the tube but the idea is ridiculous because it's unenforceable.
I think you mean "criminal basis". Conditions of carriage are a contract and a contract is a legally binding agreement. That's a (civil law) legal basis. It is no longer a criminal matter I agree.
Sadiq Khan has announced that masks will continue to be mandatory on all Transport for London services, including the tube.
He can say what he likes, there's no legal basis for them beyond Thursday.
Of course there's a legal basis, it's the conditions of carriage. (As well as common sense and basic courtesy to others).
Richard that way lies masks forever. It should be a risk-based measure. Tell me Khan isn't doing this to differentiate himself from the govt. Hospitalisations and hospital capacity in no way justify any restrictive measures.
No one worried pre-Covid about people wearing masks in case they had the flu. For the jabbed this is what it appears Omicron is like. So why masks now, anywhere?
Public transport is a very special case. Many people can't avoid it, and passengers are frequently crammed together. Of all the places where a mask mandate might be worth having, public transport is the most obviously desirable, until this thing is over. Which ain't quite yet, although we're making very good progress.
Sadiq Khan has announced that masks will continue to be mandatory on all Transport for London services, including the tube.
He can say what he likes, there's no legal basis for them beyond Thursday.
Not many will wear them, and it won't be enforced. Pointless
It is absolutely pointless but is a nudge and no doubt the same kind of people who wear a mask while walking on their own over a ploughed field in Shropshire will wear them on the Central Line.
I sense you'll be viewing anybody who continues to wear a mask on a crowded tube train as a frightened little mouse who'd benefit from a spell in the army?
Sadiq Khan has announced that masks will continue to be mandatory on all Transport for London services, including the tube.
He can say what he likes, there's no legal basis for them beyond Thursday.
Of course there's a legal basis, it's the conditions of carriage. (As well as common sense and basic courtesy to others).
Conditions of carriage aren't a legal basis, this has been tested in court many times as well with terms of service and end user licence agreements. They are simply the terms of carriage, the worst they can do is ask you to leave the tube but the idea is ridiculous because it's unenforceable.
It would be perfectly enforecable, if they wanted to enforce it, just like any other terms of the conditions of carriage. It's regrettable that the don't because of fears of assault and disruption from a few arrogant yobs, but that is where we are.
It is nonsensical. To have restrictions on the tube as part of a holistic national strategy whereby the tube and, say, shops are in masks then that makes sense as in total the overall cases might be reduced so nationally hospital capacity can be managed.
This is not that. He is doing it to score a political point. If he is doing it to make people feel safe in the tube then it is both illogical and likely a measure forever.
I'm feeling more chipper than I have for a while. Johnson survives as a lame duck, his premiership destined to limp along in a way that makes John Major's post Black Wednesday look (to coin a phrase) strong and stable, and this time next week I shall be back at my deeply unfashionable and elitist Mayfair club with a couple of Martinis to start me off on an evening to celebrate the nights drawing out.
Well the Tories might just hold Kensington and Chelsea in May if Boris is lucky. However if there is no VONC now that means he could face one in May, better for Boris in my view to get a VONC done now and if he wins it he is safe for a year, past the local elections
My instinct is that Christian Wakeford will resign his seat and fight a by-election which he would probably win with a good majority. Imagine, though, the internal warfare within Labour that might ensue over his selection!"
I said yesterday Arsenal are a joke of a club, if this proves to be true, then they should be relegated two divisions.
The Football Association is looking into a yellow card received by an Arsenal player in a Premier League fixture this season, amid concerns over suspicious betting patterns.
It is understood that bookmakers flagged to the FA an unusual amount of money placed on the Arsenal player being shown a yellow card during a Premier League game this season.
The FA told The Athletic: “The FA is aware of the matter in question and is looking into it.”
The Athletic knows the identity of the player in question but has agreed not to reveal it at this time due to privacy reasons.
Multiple gambling industry insiders have told The Athletic that the pattern of betting surrounding the player being shown a yellow card during the match was highly unusual.
Betting on the minutiae of sporting events, such as yellow cards, is a type of betting known as ‘spot betting’.
Regular betting during football matches sees people wager on an overall outcome — i.e. the winner of a game.
Spot betting, however, involves individual outcomes and poses more of an issue to governing bodies, because a single individual can decide the outcome of a market by, for example, conceding a corner in a particular ten minute interval.
This can turn a seemingly trivial incident into a moment worth tens of thousands of pounds.
Although spot fixing is considered a significant problem in football leagues around the world, in the Premier League it is thought to be very rare, because players are paid so much money.
The gambling industry offers odds on a virtual infinity of trivial outcomes in sport - individual games in obscure tennis matches, throw ins and goal kicks and the rest. Do they not to some extent invite and tempt people to trivial actions with financial consequences with no victim you would sympathise with? After all the bookies set the odds, and as a matter of straight maths bend the market in their favour for purely financial reasons. Could you nor argue that winning or losing a game in the middle of the tennis match whose outcome means nothing merely reverses the general pro-bookie trend a little?
Sadiq Khan has announced that masks will continue to be mandatory on all Transport for London services, including the tube.
He can say what he likes, there's no legal basis for them beyond Thursday.
Of course there's a legal basis, it's the conditions of carriage. (As well as common sense and basic courtesy to others).
Conditions of carriage aren't a legal basis, this has been tested in court many times as well with terms of service and end user licence agreements. They are simply the terms of carriage, the worst they can do is ask you to leave the tube but the idea is ridiculous because it's unenforceable.
It would be perfectly enforecable, if they wanted to enforce it, just like any other terms of the conditions of carriage. It's regrettable that the don't because of fears of assault and disruption from a few arrogant yobs, but that is where we are.
It's not because the mayor knows everyone just starts getting alternative transport and if it went to court it would end up with all the same losses of terms of service and EULA cases.
Additionally, anyone who tries to enforce them has no legal basis to challenge anyone on why they may be exempt from masks, which is why mask wearing has never been enforced in the UK. People can simply say "I am exempt from this rule" and they have to accept it and move on.
It's an entirely pointless exercise to continue mandating masks and Sadiq is just trying to show that he's "responsible" but as we saw last time, people will naturally stop wearing them.
Sadiq Khan has announced that masks will continue to be mandatory on all Transport for London services, including the tube.
He can say what he likes, there's no legal basis for them beyond Thursday.
Of course there's a legal basis, it's the conditions of carriage. (As well as common sense and basic courtesy to others).
Richard that way lies masks forever. It should be a risk-based measure. Tell me Khan isn't doing this to differentiate himself from the govt. Hospitalisations and hospital capacity in no way justify any restrictive measures.
No one worried pre-Covid about people wearing masks in case they had the flu. For the jabbed this is what it appears Omicron is like. So why masks now, anywhere?
Public transport is a very special case. Many people can't avoid it, and passengers are frequently crammed together. Of all the places where a mask mandate might be worth having, public transport is the most obviously desirable, until this thing is over. Which ain't quite yet, although we're making very good progress.
This thing is over. Everyone who wants a vaccine should have had three already now.
I just watched that. I have never heard of him. What an irritating moron.
On the train today x2. First this morning = masks: 100% (apart from me who can make a Starbucks [apols] coffee last over an hour).
This afternoon = 50%. mask wearing.
Just the hint that they will no longer be mandated has pre-empted action from people.
Yes, I mused earlier that I thought that that might happen. Lame duck law now – who is going to enforce a law that expires at midnight tomorrow week?
Certainly works for me. I walked into my dry cleaners this arvo and thought: Fuck it, why wear a mask? They are going anyway
My previously masked dry cleaning guys clearly felt the same. Usually they wear masks. Not today
I am so impressed with the on the ground work you do.You've told us so many times that no one at all in your area is wearing masks any more, and yet you still manage to find someone who has _only_just_ stopped wearing one. You must be having to go miles to find them by now.
I think Leon has been fairly clear that people in London are wearing them, performatively, in shops, then cheerfully discarding them where they are not required. Seeing people not wearing them where they ARE required is new news.
The only shop where I can be consistently sure of being in a majority of non-maskers round here is One Stop.
Apropos of nothing in particular, I think the word "performative" is one of the words of the pandemic. I don't think I recall ever seeing it until around a year ago. Now, its usage is abundant and terribly fashionable.
The Queen is a class act who understands concepts like duty, honour and leadership. It's hard to imagine a person who embodies fewer of her many virtues than Boris Johnson.
Boris, like Andrew, believes the rules don't apply to him.
If Brady comes up short of the 54 letters, and the Met. don't investigate Partygate, Johnson is absolutely right.
I remain of my now oft-stated view that:
Boris is going nowhere.
The PCP are weak, weak, weak.
Gone by month end. He's got Gray report plus further dom revelations on top of a disastrous day today. Nowhere to hide.
On paper today looked like a disaster for Johnson, PMQs, a defection, and the demand from a Grandee to resign, but then Johnson drew victory from the jaws of defeat. I was watching, and I am not sure how he did it.
I'm feeling more chipper than I have for a while. Johnson survives as a lame duck, his premiership destined to limp along in a way that makes John Major's post Black Wednesday look (to coin a phrase) strong and stable, and this time next week I shall be back at my deeply unfashionable and elitist Mayfair club with a couple of Martinis to start me off on an evening to celebrate the nights drawing out.
I am not chipper at all. I don't care about parties but I do care about the damage Johnson can do to our country and our society as long as he remains in power.
Worth clarifying as I reread what I wrote. When I said I don't care about parties I meant I don't care about political parties. I care very much about the hypocritical and criminal abuse of holding drinking parties whilst in lockdown
My 2p worth of speculation as to the COVID "blip". The sharp rise before Xmas was driven by it being in London. It tailed off and fell as rural areas of the South rose to the top of the cases per 100k chart. That spread North. Now it is the conurbations of the NE and NW which are dominant. Hence faster spread? Just a theory.
It does sound logical, but one caution would seem to be that Zoe shows incidence rising again in London. Another option is that the lack of general social mixing before and during Christmas, outside families at least, led to the downturn in early Jan and we've now resumed our earlier curve. The UK has after all seen a much lower peak per capita than other neighbouring countries.
Am I the only one who doesn't like these references to the 2019 Conservatives MPs not being 'socialised' or 'properly trained' or 'they don't understand how things operate' ?
Given the rottenness in Westminster in general and Downing Street in particular I would suggest its the procedures and practices which are at fault.
I imagine most of that comes from Rees Mogg. It is the kind of patronising shit he comes out with
"Christian Wakeford MP: Why I am quitting the Conservative Party and joining Labour
“Both Boris Johnson and the Conservative Party as a whole have shown themselves incapable of offering the leadership and government this country deserves.”
Sadiq Khan has announced that masks will continue to be mandatory on all Transport for London services, including the tube.
He can say what he likes, there's no legal basis for them beyond Thursday.
Of course there's a legal basis, it's the conditions of carriage. (As well as common sense and basic courtesy to others).
Conditions of carriage aren't a legal basis, this has been tested in court many times as well with terms of service and end user licence agreements. They are simply the terms of carriage, the worst they can do is ask you to leave the tube but the idea is ridiculous because it's unenforceable.
It would be perfectly enforecable, if they wanted to enforce it, just like any other terms of the conditions of carriage. It's regrettable that the don't because of fears of assault and disruption from a few arrogant yobs, but that is where we are.
It is nonsensical. To have restrictions on the tube as part of a holistic national strategy whereby the tube and, say, shops are in masks then that makes sense as in total the overall cases might be reduced so nationally hospital capacity can be managed.
This is not that. He is doing it to score a political point. If he is doing it to make people feel safe in the tube then it is both illogical and likely a measure forever.
Well, I agree. It would be much better for this to be a national regulation. Unfortunately we don't have a functioning government, and whilst you might be right that it is politics pushing Khan in one direction, it's just as much the case that it is politics pushing the government in the other direction. It's to curry favour with the ERG or whatever they call themselves this week that the government is giving up.
My 2p worth of speculation as to the COVID "blip". The sharp rise before Xmas was driven by it being in London. It tailed off and fell as rural areas of the South rose to the top of the cases per 100k chart. That spread North. Now it is the conurbations of the NE and NW which are dominant. Hence faster spread? Just a theory.
Schools are back and they will start feeding into the figures now
I'm thinking about the theory of writing to Graham. The only incentive to hit 54 before Gray is you are worried Gray will be an effective acquittal so get him now because the votes might not be there after. But that makes little sense because if Gray satisfies a majority of mps, it is probably right for Boris to stay. So why risk a premature ejaculation which Boris juuust survives followed by a damning Gray report and Boris shamelessly cemented in place for a year? This argument begins stronger as it becomes clearer that he is not going to go from motives of hahaha decency
People say you could always change the rules and have another pop at him, but without detail on what changing rules entails. Bound to be a faff.
Am I the only one who doesn't like these references to the 2019 Conservatives MPs not being 'socialised' or 'properly trained' or 'they don't understand how things operate' ?
Given the rottenness in Westminster in general and Downing Street in particular I would suggest its the procedures and practices which are at fault.
I imagine most of that comes from Rees Mogg. It is the kind of patronising shit he comes out with
Obviously the 2019 intake are new bugs and frightful oiks who haven't understood that they have to fag for their prefects such as Rees-Mogg major and make toast with their bare fingers etc.
I'm feeling more chipper than I have for a while. Johnson survives as a lame duck, his premiership destined to limp along in a way that makes John Major's post Black Wednesday look (to coin a phrase) strong and stable, and this time next week I shall be back at my deeply unfashionable and elitist Mayfair club with a couple of Martinis to start me off on an evening to celebrate the nights drawing out.
I am not chipper at all. I don't care about parties but I do care about the damage Johnson can do to our country and our society as long as he remains in power.
Worth clarifying as I reread what I wrote. When I said I don't care about parties I meant I don't care about political parties. I care very much about the hypocritical and criminal abuse of holding drinking parties whilst in lockdown
I vaguely remember a time when political parties and drinking parties weren't the same thing. Happier times...
Sadiq Khan has announced that masks will continue to be mandatory on all Transport for London services, including the tube.
He can say what he likes, there's no legal basis for them beyond Thursday.
Of course there's a legal basis, it's the conditions of carriage. (As well as common sense and basic courtesy to others).
Conditions of carriage aren't a legal basis, this has been tested in court many times as well with terms of service and end user licence agreements. They are simply the terms of carriage, the worst they can do is ask you to leave the tube but the idea is ridiculous because it's unenforceable.
It would be perfectly enforecable, if they wanted to enforce it, just like any other terms of the conditions of carriage. It's regrettable that the don't because of fears of assault and disruption from a few arrogant yobs, but that is where we are.
It is nonsensical. To have restrictions on the tube as part of a holistic national strategy whereby the tube and, say, shops are in masks then that makes sense as in total the overall cases might be reduced so nationally hospital capacity can be managed.
This is not that. He is doing it to score a political point. If he is doing it to make people feel safe in the tube then it is both illogical and likely a measure forever.
Well, I agree. It would be much better for this to be a national regulation. Unfortunately we don't have a functioning government, and whilst you might be right that it is politics pushing Khan in one direction, it's just as much the case that it is politics pushing the government in the other direction. It's to curry favour with the ERG or whatever they call themselves this week that the government is giving up.
No it should be personal choice not national regulation. There isn't a justification post vaccines for the state to be taking away people's liberties.
This is as "over" as it's ever going to get. If we don't end these pettifogging rules now, them what is the threshold to abolish them?
Thinking about it, the defection of Christian Wakeford is a double-win for Starmer.
1. The fact that a Tory MP is prepared to join Labour makes Labour more electable.
2. His defection helps Boris as it makes Tory MPs less keen to act to remove if it means joining the group of rebels to which Wakeford belonged. Boris staying is, of course, a great boon to Starmer.
The defection has been managed cleverly by the Labour team.
It's not because the mayor knows everyone just starts getting alternative transport and if it went to court it would end up with all the same losses of terms of service and EULA cases.
Additionally, anyone who tries to enforce them has no legal basis to challenge anyone on why they may be exempt from masks, which is why mask wearing has never been enforced in the UK. People can simply say "I am exempt from this rule" and they have to accept it and move on.
It's an entirely pointless exercise to continue mandating masks and Sadiq is just trying to show that he's "responsible" but as we saw last time, people will naturally stop wearing them.
I agree with much of that, but the fact that it hasn't been properly enforced, and that there was this utterly ridiculous exemption on no basis, is the government's fault. One of many missteps.
Sadiq Khan has announced that masks will continue to be mandatory on all Transport for London services, including the tube.
He can say what he likes, there's no legal basis for them beyond Thursday.
Of course there's a legal basis, it's the conditions of carriage. (As well as common sense and basic courtesy to others).
Richard that way lies masks forever. It should be a risk-based measure. Tell me Khan isn't doing this to differentiate himself from the govt. Hospitalisations and hospital capacity in no way justify any restrictive measures.
No one worried pre-Covid about people wearing masks in case they had the flu. For the jabbed this is what it appears Omicron is like. So why masks now, anywhere?
Public transport is a very special case. Many people can't avoid it, and passengers are frequently crammed together. Of all the places where a mask mandate might be worth having, public transport is the most obviously desirable, until this thing is over. Which ain't quite yet, although we're making very good progress.
This thing is over. Everyone who wants a vaccine should have had three already now.
If vaccines aren't the end for you, what is?
Effective vaccines and an unattainable guarantee against more virulent strains.
My 2p worth of speculation as to the COVID "blip". The sharp rise before Xmas was driven by it being in London. It tailed off and fell as rural areas of the South rose to the top of the cases per 100k chart. That spread North. Now it is the conurbations of the NE and NW which are dominant. Hence faster spread? Just a theory.
It does sound logical, but one caution would seem to be that Zoe shows incidence rising again in London. Another option is that the lack of general social mixing before and during Christmas, outside families at least, led to the downturn in early Jan and we've now resumed our earlier curve. The UK has after all seen a much lower peak per capita than other neighbouring countries.
I just watched that. I have never heard of him. What an irritating moron.
On the train today x2. First this morning = masks: 100% (apart from me who can make a Starbucks [apols] coffee last over an hour).
This afternoon = 50%. mask wearing.
Just the hint that they will no longer be mandated has pre-empted action from people.
Yes, I mused earlier that I thought that that might happen. Lame duck law now – who is going to enforce a law that expires at midnight tomorrow week?
Certainly works for me. I walked into my dry cleaners this arvo and thought: Fuck it, why wear a mask? They are going anyway
My previously masked dry cleaning guys clearly felt the same. Usually they wear masks. Not today
I am so impressed with the on the ground work you do.You've told us so many times that no one at all in your area is wearing masks any more, and yet you still manage to find someone who has _only_just_ stopped wearing one. You must be having to go miles to find them by now.
I think Leon has been fairly clear that people in London are wearing them, performatively, in shops, then cheerfully discarding them where they are not required. Seeing people not wearing them where they ARE required is new news.
The only shop where I can be consistently sure of being in a majority of non-maskers round here is One Stop.
Apropos of nothing in particular, I think the word "performative" is one of the words of the pandemic. I don't think I recall ever seeing it until around a year ago. Now, its usage is abundant and terribly fashionable.
Sadiq Khan has announced that masks will continue to be mandatory on all Transport for London services, including the tube.
He can say what he likes, there's no legal basis for them beyond Thursday.
Of course there's a legal basis, it's the conditions of carriage. (As well as common sense and basic courtesy to others).
Richard that way lies masks forever. It should be a risk-based measure. Tell me Khan isn't doing this to differentiate himself from the govt. Hospitalisations and hospital capacity in no way justify any restrictive measures.
No one worried pre-Covid about people wearing masks in case they had the flu. For the jabbed this is what it appears Omicron is like. So why masks now, anywhere?
Public transport is a very special case. Many people can't avoid it, and passengers are frequently crammed together. Of all the places where a mask mandate might be worth having, public transport is the most obviously desirable, until this thing is over. Which ain't quite yet, although we're making very good progress.
This thing is over. Everyone who wants a vaccine should have had three already now.
If vaccines aren't the end for you, what is?
Effective vaccines and an unattainable guarantee against more virulent strains.
We have very, very effective vaccines and there is no way to ever guarantee against more virulent strains.
As I've said before, the horseshoe theory doesn't just apply to communism and fascism, it seems to apply well to antivaxxers and lockdown enthusiasts. The two extremes seems to have more in common than either would care to admit as lockdown enthusiasts start sharing antivaxx memes in order to be able to deny this is over.
Thinking about it, the defection of Christian Wakeford is a double-win for Starmer.
1. The fact that a Tory MP is prepared to join Labour makes Labour more electable.
2. His defection helps Boris as it makes Tory MPs less keen to act to remove if it means joining the group of rebels to which Wakeford belonged. Boris staying is, of course, a great boon to Starmer.
The defection has been managed cleverly by the Labour team.
Yes. Were there any rumours of any kind? I didn't hear any.
No it should be personal choice not national regulation. There isn't a justification post vaccines for the state to be taking away people's liberties.
This is as "over" as it's ever going to get. If we don't end these pettifogging rules now, them what is the threshold to abolish them?
Now that we have largely solved the problems of severe cases and deaths (except for a small number of people who don't want to be protected), the threshold to abolish the rules is when the NHS is not being hit with large numbers of admissions caused by or complicated by Covid. We're almost there, but not quite. The government is right to abandon most of the restrictions, but masks on public transport and a few other places should be kept for a few more weeks.
I just watched that. I have never heard of him. What an irritating moron.
On the train today x2. First this morning = masks: 100% (apart from me who can make a Starbucks [apols] coffee last over an hour).
This afternoon = 50%. mask wearing.
Just the hint that they will no longer be mandated has pre-empted action from people.
Yes, I mused earlier that I thought that that might happen. Lame duck law now – who is going to enforce a law that expires at midnight tomorrow week?
Certainly works for me. I walked into my dry cleaners this arvo and thought: Fuck it, why wear a mask? They are going anyway
My previously masked dry cleaning guys clearly felt the same. Usually they wear masks. Not today
I am so impressed with the on the ground work you do.You've told us so many times that no one at all in your area is wearing masks any more, and yet you still manage to find someone who has _only_just_ stopped wearing one. You must be having to go miles to find them by now.
I think Leon has been fairly clear that people in London are wearing them, performatively, in shops, then cheerfully discarding them where they are not required. Seeing people not wearing them where they ARE required is new news.
The only shop where I can be consistently sure of being in a majority of non-maskers round here is One Stop.
Apropos of nothing in particular, I think the word "performative" is one of the words of the pandemic. I don't think I recall ever seeing it until around a year ago. Now, its usage is abundant and terribly fashionable.
You may almost say it is performative.
It is meaningless as used 99% of the time. A performative utterance is one which does something rather than claims that something is being done: I (hereby) welcome you or thank you. Calling an action performative is a pointless pleonasm
I've been looking back at posters' comments on the now infamous 20th May 2020.
This one from the much-missed @Black_Rook gives some context from that day:
"Recently home from work and just catching up on the news of zero new Covid diagnoses in London in a 24-hour period.
It is also more than a week since Boris Johnson dumped the Stay Home message and started encouraging people to go back to work. One is therefore entitled to wonder what has happened to the much-feared disease spike caused by passengers allegedly cramming back into buses and the Tube, going back into workplaces, and spending as much time as they please enjoying sunny parks. Indeed, if this continues to fail to materialise for very much longer then it'll be the best news since this whole miserable saga began."
According to the media (speaking today) we were in the height of lockdown back then.
It's not because the mayor knows everyone just starts getting alternative transport and if it went to court it would end up with all the same losses of terms of service and EULA cases.
Additionally, anyone who tries to enforce them has no legal basis to challenge anyone on why they may be exempt from masks, which is why mask wearing has never been enforced in the UK. People can simply say "I am exempt from this rule" and they have to accept it and move on.
It's an entirely pointless exercise to continue mandating masks and Sadiq is just trying to show that he's "responsible" but as we saw last time, people will naturally stop wearing them.
I agree with much of that, but the fact that it hasn't been properly enforced, and that there was this utterly ridiculous exemption on no basis, is the government's fault. One of many missteps.
I just don't see what you want to achieve with mask wearing. People who want to protect themselves can get higher grade masks if they want. Making those of us who can live with a small amount of risk wear shitty cloth masks that don't work isn't helping anyone.
You're still stuck in the default "must stop the virus" stage of this. I think that's the issue, once you accept that we can't stop it you'll realise that all of the NPIs have to go. The best we can do is reduce case severity, three doses of vaccine for the over 50s and two doses for the under 50s seems to do that very well. Everything else is window dressing.
No it should be personal choice not national regulation. There isn't a justification post vaccines for the state to be taking away people's liberties.
This is as "over" as it's ever going to get. If we don't end these pettifogging rules now, them what is the threshold to abolish them?
Now that we have largely solved the problems of severe cases and deaths (except for a small number of people who don't want to be protected), the threshold to abolish the rules is when the NHS is not being hit with large numbers of admissions caused by or complicated by Covid. We're almost there, but not quite. The government is right to abandon most of the restrictions, but masks on public transport and a few other places should be kept for a few more weeks.
You've yet to give any evidence to support your position. The government's own report for masks in schools was pretty damning. I can't imagine the evidence for masks preventing cases on the tube is strong. The theoretical gain may exist, in the real world people take their masks off to sneeze.
No it should be personal choice not national regulation. There isn't a justification post vaccines for the state to be taking away people's liberties.
This is as "over" as it's ever going to get. If we don't end these pettifogging rules now, them what is the threshold to abolish them?
Now that we have largely solved the problems of severe cases and deaths (except for a small number of people who don't want to be protected), the threshold to abolish the rules is when the NHS is not being hit with large numbers of admissions caused by or complicated by Covid. We're almost there, but not quite. The government is right to abandon most of the restrictions, but masks on public transport and a few other places should be kept for a few more weeks.
Why wait? What purpose does it solve?
The NHS will always have sick people to treat. That's what it's there for. Expecting there to be no sick people using the NHS is like expecting no indebted people to use credit cards.
But almost all critical cases have refused to get their booster or vaccine. That's their choice and their responsibility.
Why should the rest of us who've done the right thing and got our own jabs keep having our liberties restricted or made to wear unpleasant and uncomfortable masks because others have refused the vaccine?
"Christian Wakeford MP: Why I am quitting the Conservative Party and joining Labour
“Both Boris Johnson and the Conservative Party as a whole have shown themselves incapable of offering the leadership and government this country deserves.”
I mean - clearly - it will eventually come here in numbers as tends to happen with super-transmissible Covid variants. At the moment it is apparently here in tiny numbers. We think. But remember you have to do proper genome sequencing to find BA2, you can't rely on PCR tests to pick it up - they don't.
You can't tell BA2 *from Delta* with PCR the way you could with classic Omicron, because it doesn't do the s-gene-dropout thing. But we don't need to tell BA2 from Delta because we're now practically 100% Omicron. So we should be able to tell BA2 in PCRs because (unlike Omicron classic and like Delta) all 3 signals show up, not just 2. If a lot of 3-signal PCRs show up then either Delta is back or BA2 is here, and given the way Omicron classic pushed Delta out my money would not be on a Delta comeback.
In any case we are doing sequencing -- you can play about with the graphs at the Sanger website. Their latest figures show 131,090 cases of classic Omicron to 78 of BA2, if I'm reading them right.
Sadiq Khan has announced that masks will continue to be mandatory on all Transport for London services, including the tube.
He can say what he likes, there's no legal basis for them beyond Thursday.
Of course there's a legal basis, it's the conditions of carriage. (As well as common sense and basic courtesy to others).
Richard that way lies masks forever. It should be a risk-based measure. Tell me Khan isn't doing this to differentiate himself from the govt. Hospitalisations and hospital capacity in no way justify any restrictive measures.
No one worried pre-Covid about people wearing masks in case they had the flu. For the jabbed this is what it appears Omicron is like. So why masks now, anywhere?
Public transport is a very special case. Many people can't avoid it, and passengers are frequently crammed together. Of all the places where a mask mandate might be worth having, public transport is the most obviously desirable, until this thing is over. Which ain't quite yet, although we're making very good progress.
It's over to the extent that the mortality rate appears now not to be significantly greater than that for the flu. For those jabbed. We didn't wear masks on the tube in bad flu "seasons" (imagine that - a flu "season" regular as clockwork). The risks now are similar to a flu season.
It is also not a costless exercise. As Julia Donaldson puts it, mask wearing is dystopian and has an overall detrimental effect on society.
Let those who want to wear an FFP3 (or whatever it is) mask wear one. The rest need not bother.
My instinct is that Christian Wakeford will resign his seat and fight a by-election which he would probably win with a good majority. Imagine, though, the internal warfare within Labour that might ensue over his selection!"
Which is what I said earlier, which would be logical. I can see it being a problem though for Labour on multiple fronts.
My 2p worth of speculation as to the COVID "blip". The sharp rise before Xmas was driven by it being in London. It tailed off and fell as rural areas of the South rose to the top of the cases per 100k chart. That spread North. Now it is the conurbations of the NE and NW which are dominant. Hence faster spread? Just a theory.
It does sound logical, but one caution would seem to be that Zoe shows incidence rising again in London. Another option is that the lack of general social mixing before and during Christmas, outside families at least, led to the downturn in early Jan and we've now resumed our earlier curve. The UK has after all seen a much lower peak per capita than other neighbouring countries.
Schools are back and under 40s are socialising.
London looks like this...
The slow down in fall seems to be across the country...
I've been looking at the antepost Grand National market.
I had a diary note come up to remind me to look out for Chris's Dream who was looking good last year but was unlucky in running and fell. I've backed it antepost at 66/1 e/w 1,2,3,4,5.
It's not because the mayor knows everyone just starts getting alternative transport and if it went to court it would end up with all the same losses of terms of service and EULA cases.
Additionally, anyone who tries to enforce them has no legal basis to challenge anyone on why they may be exempt from masks, which is why mask wearing has never been enforced in the UK. People can simply say "I am exempt from this rule" and they have to accept it and move on.
It's an entirely pointless exercise to continue mandating masks and Sadiq is just trying to show that he's "responsible" but as we saw last time, people will naturally stop wearing them.
I agree with much of that, but the fact that it hasn't been properly enforced, and that there was this utterly ridiculous exemption on no basis, is the government's fault. One of many missteps.
I just don't see what you want to achieve with mask wearing. People who want to protect themselves can get higher grade masks if they want. Making those of us who can live with a small amount of risk wear shitty cloth masks that don't work isn't helping anyone.
You're still stuck in the default "must stop the virus" stage of this. I think that's the issue, once you accept that we can't stop it you'll realise that all of the NPIs have to go. The best we can do is reduce case severity, three doses of vaccine for the over 50s and two doses for the under 50s seems to do that very well. Everything else is window dressing.
Now that we have the vaccines and boosters largely done (although it's a pity that the programme seems to have stalled now), the stage we should be at now is not to stop the virus, which I agree is impossible in the medium term, but to slow it down to help the pressure on the NHS. Assuming we don't get hit by some new nasty surprise, in which case all bets would be off, we are talking a small number of weeks for this.
Apols if I have missed a discussion this already, but should Labour not now get Christian Wakeford to step down and force a Red Wall by-election? if they cant win that seat back now they never will and a win in the Red Wall is presumably a massive addition to the current narrative of a failing Boris and keeps the whole story front and centre in the media
It's been a major issue in the US for months now. AT&T and Verizon have delayed their rollouts already but, given how much they have spent on 5G, they are keen to get going. However, the FAA and the airlines have been kicking and screaming. Seems to have reached a crescendo with the airlines claiming there is a very substantial risk from the rollout
If this is Saj's interview for the big job, he's failing unless the job is curing insomniacs.
When is the Sue Gray report due?
It might be boring, but its better than a usual Boris press conference.....he actually sounds like he has actually read the briefing material.
He's treating us like mugs though. Expecting us to cheer him for not going to "Plan C" otherwise known as lockdown over Christmas, when we know full well he was personally agitating loudly for just that and nearly succeeded, were it not for 100 backbenchers making clear they would VONC Boris if he tried.
Sadiq Khan has announced that masks will continue to be mandatory on all Transport for London services, including the tube.
He can say what he likes, there's no legal basis for them beyond Thursday.
Of course there's a legal basis, it's the conditions of carriage. (As well as common sense and basic courtesy to others).
Richard that way lies masks forever. It should be a risk-based measure. Tell me Khan isn't doing this to differentiate himself from the govt. Hospitalisations and hospital capacity in no way justify any restrictive measures.
No one worried pre-Covid about people wearing masks in case they had the flu. For the jabbed this is what it appears Omicron is like. So why masks now, anywhere?
Public transport is a very special case. Many people can't avoid it, and passengers are frequently crammed together. Of all the places where a mask mandate might be worth having, public transport is the most obviously desirable, until this thing is over. Which ain't quite yet, although we're making very good progress.
It's over to the extent that the mortality rate appears now not to be significantly greater than that for the flu. For those jabbed. We didn't wear masks on the tube in bad flu "seasons" (imagine that - a flu "season" regular as clockwork). The risks now are similar to a flu season.
It is also not a costless exercise. As Julia Donaldson puts it, mask wearing is dystopian and has an overall detrimental effect on society.
Let those who want to wear an FFP3 (or whatever it is) mask wear one. The rest need not bother.
We seem to have come a long way from:
'Its just a mask. You wear a seat belt don't you, what's the difference?'
It's not because the mayor knows everyone just starts getting alternative transport and if it went to court it would end up with all the same losses of terms of service and EULA cases.
Additionally, anyone who tries to enforce them has no legal basis to challenge anyone on why they may be exempt from masks, which is why mask wearing has never been enforced in the UK. People can simply say "I am exempt from this rule" and they have to accept it and move on.
It's an entirely pointless exercise to continue mandating masks and Sadiq is just trying to show that he's "responsible" but as we saw last time, people will naturally stop wearing them.
I agree with much of that, but the fact that it hasn't been properly enforced, and that there was this utterly ridiculous exemption on no basis, is the government's fault. One of many missteps.
I just don't see what you want to achieve with mask wearing. People who want to protect themselves can get higher grade masks if they want. Making those of us who can live with a small amount of risk wear shitty cloth masks that don't work isn't helping anyone.
You're still stuck in the default "must stop the virus" stage of this. I think that's the issue, once you accept that we can't stop it you'll realise that all of the NPIs have to go. The best we can do is reduce case severity, three doses of vaccine for the over 50s and two doses for the under 50s seems to do that very well. Everything else is window dressing.
Now that we have the vaccines and boosters largely done (although it's a pity that the programme seems to have stalled now), the stage we should be at now is not to stop the virus, which I agree is impossible in the medium term, but to slow it down to help the pressure on the NHS. Assuming we don't get hit by some new nasty surprise, in which case all bets would be off, we are talking a small number of weeks for this.
What evidence do you have to suggest that masks on the tube or any public transport would actually slow it down? The general studies into COVID transmission have all shown that the biggest R reductions come from school closures and WFH mandates. I think masks were rated as fairly negligible, the government's own report into them for masks in schools pointed this out as well and said they were entirely performative and a useful reminder to be careful or something similarly idiotic.
The Queen is a class act who understands concepts like duty, honour and leadership. It's hard to imagine a person who embodies fewer of her many virtues than Boris Johnson.
Boris, like Andrew, believes the rules don't apply to him.
If Brady comes up short of the 54 letters, and the Met. don't investigate Partygate, Johnson is absolutely right.
I remain of my now oft-stated view that:
Boris is going nowhere.
The PCP are weak, weak, weak.
Gone by month end. He's got Gray report plus further dom revelations on top of a disastrous day today. Nowhere to hide.
I've been looking back at posters' comments on the now infamous 20th May 2020.
This one from the much-missed @Black_Rook gives some context from that day:
"Recently home from work and just catching up on the news of zero new Covid diagnoses in London in a 24-hour period.
It is also more than a week since Boris Johnson dumped the Stay Home message and started encouraging people to go back to work. One is therefore entitled to wonder what has happened to the much-feared disease spike caused by passengers allegedly cramming back into buses and the Tube, going back into workplaces, and spending as much time as they please enjoying sunny parks. Indeed, if this continues to fail to materialise for very much longer then it'll be the best news since this whole miserable saga began."
According to the media (speaking today) we were in the height of lockdown back then.
The "height of lockdown" nonsense for May 20 is typical of our journalists. Ten of thousands of people went to the beach that day,
Apols if I have missed a discussion this already, but should Labour not now get Christian Wakeford to step down and force a Red Wall by-election? if they cant win that seat back now they never will and a win in the Red Wall is presumably a massive addition to the current narrative of a failing Boris and keeps the whole story front and centre in the media
They can't force him to, he wouldn't have switched if that was a condition, there's no real need for him to do so, doing so carries risk since it's not possible to predict what will happen between now and the by election (eg Johnson being replaced by someone useful) and persuading an MP to switch across is probably better than a by election win anyway, since the latter happens fairly frequently and the former is comparatively rare.
All in all, I'd say the likelihood of a by election as a result of this defection is close to zero.
Apols if I have missed a discussion this already, but should Labour not now get Christian Wakeford to step down and force a Red Wall by-election? if they cant win that seat back now they never will and a win in the Red Wall is presumably a massive addition to the current narrative of a failing Boris and keeps the whole story front and centre in the media
Betting is now that him going this year is a 60% chance. I agree with that. How he survives (the 40%) as I see it is -
- Gray fires blame at the PPS. Offers no opinion on whether Johnson is telling the truth when he says he wasn't tipped off that a rule-breaking event was planned. Plus some waffle about 'Downing St culture'. - This was the worst that Cummings had. - The letters fall short of the 54.
He stops self-harming, we emerge from the pandemic, they do a few popular things, the Locals aren't carnage.
My 2p worth of speculation as to the COVID "blip". The sharp rise before Xmas was driven by it being in London. It tailed off and fell as rural areas of the South rose to the top of the cases per 100k chart. That spread North. Now it is the conurbations of the NE and NW which are dominant. Hence faster spread? Just a theory.
My 2p worth of speculation:
its not so much areas as age groups, if you look at the cases by age group, you start to see a trend. the age groups are not available for the UK as a whole, and they are delayed so the last available is 14 Jan. However I think we can see a trend, if we look at the latest data and compare to the day before.
0-4: up 5-9: up 10-14: up 15-19: up (very slightly) 20-24: down 25-29: down 30-34: down 35-39: down 40-44: down 45-49: down 50-54: down 55-59: down 60-64: down 65-69: down 70-74: down 75-79: down 80-84: down 85-89: down 90+: down
If this has continued since the 14 Jan, then eventually the drop in the old groups attenuates out and the rise in the younger groups becomes more significant and then overall cases rise, which I think is what we are seeing.
Why did this not start the day schools went back? well I don't really know, other than to say this is what we observed in September when schools went back then, (a delay before cases started rising) perhaps is become of all the testing in the first week, and/or the incubation period?
Does this matter? well its obviously sad that its rising at all, but of all the age groups this is likely to be the least badly affected with hospitalisation and/or death.
Will it spread to other age groups? this is the great unknown, but its worth noting that from Sep-Dec, it mostly stayed in the kids with some spill over to the parents age groups 30-50 but not much beyond that, so this could be the same.
How long will it last? Don't know, but my guess would be not long, 2-4 weeks perhaps, but that's a just my feeling not based on much.
It's been a major issue in the US for months now. AT&T and Verizon have delayed their rollouts already but, given how much they have spent on 5G, they are keen to get going. However, the FAA and the airlines have been kicking and screaming. Seems to have reached a crescendo with the airlines claiming there is a very substantial risk from the rollout
Strangely, the roll out of 5G on these frequencies in Europe has not caused plane crashes.
Thinking about it, the defection of Christian Wakeford is a double-win for Starmer.
1. The fact that a Tory MP is prepared to join Labour makes Labour more electable.
2. His defection helps Boris as it makes Tory MPs less keen to act to remove if it means joining the group of rebels to which Wakeford belonged. Boris staying is, of course, a great boon to Starmer.
The defection has been managed cleverly by the Labour team.
Yes. Were there any rumours of any kind? I didn't hear any.
Absolutely not a rumour but I did ask last week whether we might see defections:
Sadiq Khan has announced that masks will continue to be mandatory on all Transport for London services, including the tube.
He can say what he likes, there's no legal basis for them beyond Thursday.
Of course there's a legal basis, it's the conditions of carriage. (As well as common sense and basic courtesy to others).
Richard that way lies masks forever. It should be a risk-based measure. Tell me Khan isn't doing this to differentiate himself from the govt. Hospitalisations and hospital capacity in no way justify any restrictive measures.
No one worried pre-Covid about people wearing masks in case they had the flu. For the jabbed this is what it appears Omicron is like. So why masks now, anywhere?
Public transport is a very special case. Many people can't avoid it, and passengers are frequently crammed together. Of all the places where a mask mandate might be worth having, public transport is the most obviously desirable, until this thing is over. Which ain't quite yet, although we're making very good progress.
Those who are concerned can acquire the stronger masks, then...
I'd say mask observance was down to 80% on public transport this weekend. I expect it to be more like 30% tomorrow....
Apols if I have missed a discussion this already, but should Labour not now get Christian Wakeford to step down and force a Red Wall by-election? if they cant win that seat back now they never will and a win in the Red Wall is presumably a massive addition to the current narrative of a failing Boris and keeps the whole story front and centre in the media
They can't force him to, he wouldn't have switched if that was a condition, there's no real need for him to do so, doing so carries risk since it's not possible to predict what will happen between now and the by election (eg Johnson being replaced by someone useful) and persuading an MP to switch across is probably better than a by election win anyway, since the latter happens fairly frequently and the former is comparatively rare.
All in all, I'd say the likelihood of a by election as a result of this defection is close to zero.
On reflection, agree. There is too much risk. Labour's performance in the last few by-elections has been poor and, even considering there may have been tactical voting, there is a big risk its voters don't really come out. Especially as it sounds as though many on the left wing in the seat may not be happy with him as a MP anyway.
Perhaps a more interesting question is whether we get any more defections from Red Wall seats who follow the same logic as Wakeford i.e. I need to save my career, better to move now. My guess is not for now but could happen.
It's been a major issue in the US for months now. AT&T and Verizon have delayed their rollouts already but, given how much they have spent on 5G, they are keen to get going. However, the FAA and the airlines have been kicking and screaming. Seems to have reached a crescendo with the airlines claiming there is a very substantial risk from the rollout
Strangely, the roll out of 5G on these frequencies in Europe has not caused plane crashes.
Betting is now that him going this year is a 60% chance. I agree with that. How he survives (the 40%) as I see it is -
- Gray fires blame at the PPS. Offers no opinion on whether Johnson is telling the truth when he says he wasn't tipped off that a rule-breaking event was planned. Plus some waffle about 'Downing St culture'. - This was the worst that Cummings had. - The letters fall short of the 54.
He stops self-harming, we emerge from the pandemic, they do a few popular things, the Locals aren't carnage.
Yes I agree.
I've been trying to lay his exit prior to April 1st again but I missed the 2.36 available earlier and the price is now 3.45.
I've been looking back at posters' comments on the now infamous 20th May 2020.
This one from the much-missed @Black_Rook gives some context from that day:
"Recently home from work and just catching up on the news of zero new Covid diagnoses in London in a 24-hour period.
It is also more than a week since Boris Johnson dumped the Stay Home message and started encouraging people to go back to work. One is therefore entitled to wonder what has happened to the much-feared disease spike caused by passengers allegedly cramming back into buses and the Tube, going back into workplaces, and spending as much time as they please enjoying sunny parks. Indeed, if this continues to fail to materialise for very much longer then it'll be the best news since this whole miserable saga began."
According to the media (speaking today) we were in the height of lockdown back then.
The Rook is actively posting under a new name now, of course.
Now I don't want to see a Labour government particularly, but to see Bozo and IDS have their Portillo moment might make it more palatable just for the lols.
I'm thinking about the theory of writing to Graham. The only incentive to hit 54 before Gray is you are worried Gray will be an effective acquittal so get him now because the votes might not be there after. But that makes little sense because if Gray satisfies a majority of mps, it is probably right for Boris to stay. So why risk a premature ejaculation which Boris juuust survives followed by a damning Gray report and Boris shamelessly cemented in place for a year? This argument begins stronger as it becomes clearer that he is not going to go from motives of hahaha decency
People say you could always change the rules and have another pop at him, but without detail on what changing rules entails. Bound to be a faff.
So hold firm. He is going.
No way they can whitewash their way out of this, caught with both hands in the till. Boris is a goner.
It's not because the mayor knows everyone just starts getting alternative transport and if it went to court it would end up with all the same losses of terms of service and EULA cases.
Additionally, anyone who tries to enforce them has no legal basis to challenge anyone on why they may be exempt from masks, which is why mask wearing has never been enforced in the UK. People can simply say "I am exempt from this rule" and they have to accept it and move on.
It's an entirely pointless exercise to continue mandating masks and Sadiq is just trying to show that he's "responsible" but as we saw last time, people will naturally stop wearing them.
I agree with much of that, but the fact that it hasn't been properly enforced, and that there was this utterly ridiculous exemption on no basis, is the government's fault. One of many missteps.
I just don't see what you want to achieve with mask wearing. People who want to protect themselves can get higher grade masks if they want. Making those of us who can live with a small amount of risk wear shitty cloth masks that don't work isn't helping anyone.
You're still stuck in the default "must stop the virus" stage of this. I think that's the issue, once you accept that we can't stop it you'll realise that all of the NPIs have to go. The best we can do is reduce case severity, three doses of vaccine for the over 50s and two doses for the under 50s seems to do that very well. Everything else is window dressing.
Now that we have the vaccines and boosters largely done (although it's a pity that the programme seems to have stalled now), the stage we should be at now is not to stop the virus, which I agree is impossible in the medium term, but to slow it down to help the pressure on the NHS. Assuming we don't get hit by some new nasty surprise, in which case all bets would be off, we are talking a small number of weeks for this.
What evidence do you have to suggest that masks on the tube or any public transport would actually slow it down? The general studies into COVID transmission have all shown that the biggest R reductions come from school closures and WFH mandates. I think masks were rated as fairly negligible, the government's own report into them for masks in schools pointed this out as well and said they were entirely performative and a useful reminder to be careful or something similarly idiotic.
There's plenty of evidence. Google 'effect mask mandates' and you'll get lots of scientific studies.
You also have to look at the other side of the coin. Of all the measures a government can take, mask mandates on public transport and other key places are without any doubt the least expensive, the least disruptive, and have the least adverse effect on people's lives.
I agree mandating them is schools is probably not effective enough to justify the downside, which is why I haven't argued for that.
The key thing is start from the evidence and work towards the policy.
I've been looking back at posters' comments on the now infamous 20th May 2020.
This one from the much-missed @Black_Rook gives some context from that day:
"Recently home from work and just catching up on the news of zero new Covid diagnoses in London in a 24-hour period.
It is also more than a week since Boris Johnson dumped the Stay Home message and started encouraging people to go back to work. One is therefore entitled to wonder what has happened to the much-feared disease spike caused by passengers allegedly cramming back into buses and the Tube, going back into workplaces, and spending as much time as they please enjoying sunny parks. Indeed, if this continues to fail to materialise for very much longer then it'll be the best news since this whole miserable saga began."
According to the media (speaking today) we were in the height of lockdown back then.
The Rook is actively posting under a new name now, of course.
I didn't know that. Are you sure, I've not picked up any similarities?
Betting is now that him going this year is a 60% chance. I agree with that. How he survives (the 40%) as I see it is -
- Gray fires blame at the PPS. Offers no opinion on whether Johnson is telling the truth when he says he wasn't tipped off that a rule-breaking event was planned. Plus some waffle about 'Downing St culture'. - This was the worst that Cummings had. - The letters fall short of the 54.
He stops self-harming, we emerge from the pandemic, they do a few popular things, the Locals aren't carnage.
Yes I agree.
I've been trying to lay his exit prior to April 1st again but I missed the 2.36 available earlier and the price is now 3.45.
It's a great market if you can surf it with decent timing.
Sadiq Khan has announced that masks will continue to be mandatory on all Transport for London services, including the tube.
He can say what he likes, there's no legal basis for them beyond Thursday.
Of course there's a legal basis, it's the conditions of carriage. (As well as common sense and basic courtesy to others).
Richard that way lies masks forever. It should be a risk-based measure. Tell me Khan isn't doing this to differentiate himself from the govt. Hospitalisations and hospital capacity in no way justify any restrictive measures.
No one worried pre-Covid about people wearing masks in case they had the flu. For the jabbed this is what it appears Omicron is like. So why masks now, anywhere?
Public transport is a very special case. Many people can't avoid it, and passengers are frequently crammed together. Of all the places where a mask mandate might be worth having, public transport is the most obviously desirable, until this thing is over. Which ain't quite yet, although we're making very good progress.
Those who are concerned can acquire the stronger masks, then...
I'd say mask observance was down to 80% on public transport this weekend. I expect it to be more like 30% tomorrow....
It's nearly two years into the pandemic now, and I think that we (or a very large fraction of us, at any rate) are absolutely fed up with restrictions. All of them. Including, perhaps especially, the dreaded masks. They'll melt away like snow on warm ground the nanosecond the rules change back.
Apols if I have missed a discussion this already, but should Labour not now get Christian Wakeford to step down and force a Red Wall by-election? if they cant win that seat back now they never will and a win in the Red Wall is presumably a massive addition to the current narrative of a failing Boris and keeps the whole story front and centre in the media
They can't force him to, he wouldn't have switched if that was a condition, there's no real need for him to do so, doing so carries risk since it's not possible to predict what will happen between now and the by election (eg Johnson being replaced by someone useful) and persuading an MP to switch across is probably better than a by election win anyway, since the latter happens fairly frequently and the former is comparatively rare.
All in all, I'd say the likelihood of a by election as a result of this defection is close to zero.
On reflection, agree. There is too much risk. Labour's performance in the last few by-elections has been poor and, even considering there may have been tactical voting, there is a big risk its voters don't really come out. Especially as it sounds as though many on the left wing in the seat may not be happy with him as a MP anyway.
Perhaps a more interesting question is whether we get any more defections from Red Wall seats who follow the same logic as Wakeford i.e. I need to save my career, better to move now. My guess is not for now but could happen.
I guess it would be high risk and thus not really Starmers bag, but isn't he more likely to win it now at the height of the current fiasco than in a couple of years when there is a GE? Defections with no by-election always seem grubby, not sure this really helps Labour done this way (unless there are more coming)
I've been looking back at posters' comments on the now infamous 20th May 2020.
This one from the much-missed @Black_Rook gives some context from that day:
"Recently home from work and just catching up on the news of zero new Covid diagnoses in London in a 24-hour period.
It is also more than a week since Boris Johnson dumped the Stay Home message and started encouraging people to go back to work. One is therefore entitled to wonder what has happened to the much-feared disease spike caused by passengers allegedly cramming back into buses and the Tube, going back into workplaces, and spending as much time as they please enjoying sunny parks. Indeed, if this continues to fail to materialise for very much longer then it'll be the best news since this whole miserable saga began."
According to the media (speaking today) we were in the height of lockdown back then.
The Rook is actively posting under a new name now, of course.
I didn't know that. Are you sure, I've not picked up any similarities?
Oh yes. 100%. But I probably shouldn't say the name in case he doesn't want that.
I've been looking back at posters' comments on the now infamous 20th May 2020.
This one from the much-missed @Black_Rook gives some context from that day:
"Recently home from work and just catching up on the news of zero new Covid diagnoses in London in a 24-hour period.
It is also more than a week since Boris Johnson dumped the Stay Home message and started encouraging people to go back to work. One is therefore entitled to wonder what has happened to the much-feared disease spike caused by passengers allegedly cramming back into buses and the Tube, going back into workplaces, and spending as much time as they please enjoying sunny parks. Indeed, if this continues to fail to materialise for very much longer then it'll be the best news since this whole miserable saga began."
According to the media (speaking today) we were in the height of lockdown back then.
The Rook is actively posting under a new name now, of course.
I didn't know that. Are you sure, I've not picked up any similarities?
I've been looking at the antepost Grand National market.
I had a diary note come up to remind me to look out for Chris's Dream who was looking good last year but was unlucky in running and fell. I've backed it antepost at 66/1 e/w 1,2,3,4,5.
It's not because the mayor knows everyone just starts getting alternative transport and if it went to court it would end up with all the same losses of terms of service and EULA cases.
Additionally, anyone who tries to enforce them has no legal basis to challenge anyone on why they may be exempt from masks, which is why mask wearing has never been enforced in the UK. People can simply say "I am exempt from this rule" and they have to accept it and move on.
It's an entirely pointless exercise to continue mandating masks and Sadiq is just trying to show that he's "responsible" but as we saw last time, people will naturally stop wearing them.
I agree with much of that, but the fact that it hasn't been properly enforced, and that there was this utterly ridiculous exemption on no basis, is the government's fault. One of many missteps.
I just don't see what you want to achieve with mask wearing. People who want to protect themselves can get higher grade masks if they want. Making those of us who can live with a small amount of risk wear shitty cloth masks that don't work isn't helping anyone.
You're still stuck in the default "must stop the virus" stage of this. I think that's the issue, once you accept that we can't stop it you'll realise that all of the NPIs have to go. The best we can do is reduce case severity, three doses of vaccine for the over 50s and two doses for the under 50s seems to do that very well. Everything else is window dressing.
Now that we have the vaccines and boosters largely done (although it's a pity that the programme seems to have stalled now), the stage we should be at now is not to stop the virus, which I agree is impossible in the medium term, but to slow it down to help the pressure on the NHS. Assuming we don't get hit by some new nasty surprise, in which case all bets would be off, we are talking a small number of weeks for this.
What evidence do you have to suggest that masks on the tube or any public transport would actually slow it down? The general studies into COVID transmission have all shown that the biggest R reductions come from school closures and WFH mandates. I think masks were rated as fairly negligible, the government's own report into them for masks in schools pointed this out as well and said they were entirely performative and a useful reminder to be careful or something similarly idiotic.
There's plenty of evidence. Google 'effect mask mandates' and you'll get lots of scientific studies.
You also have to look at the other side of the coin. Of all the measures a government can take, mask mandates on public transport and other key places are without any doubt the least expensive, the least disruptive, and have the least adverse effect on people's lives.
I agree mandating them is schools is probably not effective enough to justify the downside, which is why I haven't argued for that.
The key thing is start from the evidence and work towards the policy.
This attitude really annoys me because you're really not looking at the best evidence, you are operating on belief. The point surely is that targeted use of FFP3 would have a far superior impact on hospital admissions than the use of cloth masks that are improperly and not universally worn by the masses. It would also happily have the side effect of negatively impacting far fewer people from a social/civil liberties perspective.
Apols if I have missed a discussion this already, but should Labour not now get Christian Wakeford to step down and force a Red Wall by-election? if they cant win that seat back now they never will and a win in the Red Wall is presumably a massive addition to the current narrative of a failing Boris and keeps the whole story front and centre in the media
They can't force him to, he wouldn't have switched if that was a condition, there's no real need for him to do so, doing so carries risk since it's not possible to predict what will happen between now and the by election (eg Johnson being replaced by someone useful) and persuading an MP to switch across is probably better than a by election win anyway, since the latter happens fairly frequently and the former is comparatively rare.
All in all, I'd say the likelihood of a by election as a result of this defection is close to zero.
On reflection, agree. There is too much risk. Labour's performance in the last few by-elections has been poor and, even considering there may have been tactical voting, there is a big risk its voters don't really come out. Especially as it sounds as though many on the left wing in the seat may not be happy with him as a MP anyway.
Perhaps a more interesting question is whether we get any more defections from Red Wall seats who follow the same logic as Wakeford i.e. I need to save my career, better to move now. My guess is not for now but could happen.
I guess it would be high risk and thus not really Starmers bag, but isn't he more likely to win it now at the height of the current fiasco than in a couple of years when there is a GE? Defections with no by-election always seem grubby, not sure this really helps Labour done this way (unless there are more coming)
Yes, but... if he wins a by election now, he still has to defend the seat at the GE! There's no upside to a by election, and a huge potential downside.
Thinking about it, the defection of Christian Wakeford is a double-win for Starmer.
1. The fact that a Tory MP is prepared to join Labour makes Labour more electable.
2. His defection helps Boris as it makes Tory MPs less keen to act to remove if it means joining the group of rebels to which Wakeford belonged. Boris staying is, of course, a great boon to Starmer.
The defection has been managed cleverly by the Labour team.
Indeed, but I wonder whether Wakeford (whom I had never heard of before) realises he is now even less loved by everyone than Boris Johnson?
Comments
The odd one is the Netherlands, a country which one would have expected to be equally well-organised and rational.
The sharp rise before Xmas was driven by it being in London.
It tailed off and fell as rural areas of the South rose to the top of the cases per 100k chart. That spread North. Now it is the conurbations of the NE and NW which are dominant.
Hence faster spread?
Just a theory.
Ms Gray's report is now an irrelevance. I feel a bit of a dick writing all those emails to Alun Cairns demanding he write to Brady.
Given the rottenness in Westminster in general and Downing Street in particular I would suggest its the procedures and practices which are at fault.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10418947/British-Airways-CANCELS-flights-amid-5G-travel-chaos.html
This is not that. He is doing it to score a political point. If he is doing it to make people feel safe in the tube then it is both illogical and likely a measure forever.
@IainDale
My instinct is that Christian Wakeford will resign his seat and fight a by-election which he would probably win with a good majority. Imagine, though, the internal warfare within Labour that might ensue over his selection!"
Not an opinion. Just a question.
Additionally, anyone who tries to enforce them has no legal basis to challenge anyone on why they may be exempt from masks, which is why mask wearing has never been enforced in the UK. People can simply say "I am exempt from this rule" and they have to accept it and move on.
It's an entirely pointless exercise to continue mandating masks and Sadiq is just trying to show that he's "responsible" but as we saw last time, people will naturally stop wearing them.
If vaccines aren't the end for you, what is?
Another option is that the lack of general social mixing before and during Christmas, outside families at least, led to the downturn in early Jan and we've now resumed our earlier curve. The UK has after all seen a much lower peak per capita than other neighbouring countries.
“Both Boris Johnson and the Conservative Party as a whole have shown themselves incapable of offering the leadership and government this country deserves.”
By New Statesman" (£)
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/conservatives/2022/01/christian-wakeford-mp-why-i-am-quitting-the-conservative-party
People say you could always change the rules and have another pop at him, but without detail on what changing rules entails. Bound to be a faff.
So hold firm. He is going.
This is as "over" as it's ever going to get. If we don't end these pettifogging rules now, them what is the threshold to abolish them?
1. The fact that a Tory MP is prepared to join Labour makes Labour more electable.
2. His defection helps Boris as it makes Tory MPs less keen to act to remove if it means joining the group of rebels to which Wakeford belonged. Boris staying is, of course, a great boon to Starmer.
The defection has been managed cleverly by the Labour team.
As I've said before, the horseshoe theory doesn't just apply to communism and fascism, it seems to apply well to antivaxxers and lockdown enthusiasts. The two extremes seems to have more in common than either would care to admit as lockdown enthusiasts start sharing antivaxx memes in order to be able to deny this is over.
When is the Sue Gray report due?
This one from the much-missed @Black_Rook gives some context from that day:
"Recently home from work and just catching up on the news of zero new Covid diagnoses in London in a 24-hour period.
It is also more than a week since Boris Johnson dumped the Stay Home message and started encouraging people to go back to work. One is therefore entitled to wonder what has happened to the much-feared disease spike caused by passengers allegedly cramming back into buses and the Tube, going back into workplaces, and spending as much time as they please enjoying sunny parks. Indeed, if this continues to fail to materialise for very much longer then it'll be the best news since this whole miserable saga began."
According to the media (speaking today) we were in the height of lockdown back then.
You're still stuck in the default "must stop the virus" stage of this. I think that's the issue, once you accept that we can't stop it you'll realise that all of the NPIs have to go. The best we can do is reduce case severity, three doses of vaccine for the over 50s and two doses for the under 50s seems to do that very well. Everything else is window dressing.
The NHS will always have sick people to treat. That's what it's there for. Expecting there to be no sick people using the NHS is like expecting no indebted people to use credit cards.
But almost all critical cases have refused to get their booster or vaccine. That's their choice and their responsibility.
Why should the rest of us who've done the right thing and got our own jabs keep having our liberties restricted or made to wear unpleasant and uncomfortable masks because others have refused the vaccine?
In any case we are doing sequencing -- you can play about with the graphs at the Sanger website. Their latest figures show 131,090 cases of classic Omicron to 78 of BA2, if I'm reading them right.
It is also not a costless exercise. As Julia Donaldson puts it, mask wearing is dystopian and has an overall detrimental effect on society.
Let those who want to wear an FFP3 (or whatever it is) mask wear one. The rest need not bother.
The slow down in fall seems to be across the country...
I've been looking at the antepost Grand National market.
I had a diary note come up to remind me to look out for Chris's Dream who was looking good last year but was unlucky in running and fell. I've backed it antepost at 66/1 e/w 1,2,3,4,5.
'Its just a mask. You wear a seat belt don't you, what's the difference?'
Anything much happening today?
We'll see.
All in all, I'd say the likelihood of a by election as a result of this defection is close to zero.
- Gray fires blame at the PPS. Offers no opinion on whether Johnson is telling the truth when he says he wasn't tipped off that a rule-breaking event was planned. Plus some waffle about 'Downing St culture'.
- This was the worst that Cummings had.
- The letters fall short of the 54.
He stops self-harming, we emerge from the pandemic, they do a few popular things, the Locals aren't carnage.
its not so much areas as age groups, if you look at the cases by age group, you start to see a trend. the age groups are not available for the UK as a whole, and they are delayed so the last available is 14 Jan. However I think we can see a trend, if we look at the latest data and compare to the day before.
0-4: up
5-9: up
10-14: up
15-19: up (very slightly)
20-24: down
25-29: down
30-34: down
35-39: down
40-44: down
45-49: down
50-54: down
55-59: down
60-64: down
65-69: down
70-74: down
75-79: down
80-84: down
85-89: down
90+: down
If this has continued since the 14 Jan, then eventually the drop in the old groups attenuates out and the rise in the younger groups becomes more significant and then overall cases rise, which I think is what we are seeing.
Why did this not start the day schools went back? well I don't really know, other than to say this is what we observed in September when schools went back then, (a delay before cases started rising) perhaps is become of all the testing in the first week, and/or the incubation period?
Does this matter? well its obviously sad that its rising at all, but of all the age groups this is likely to be the least badly affected with hospitalisation and/or death.
Will it spread to other age groups? this is the great unknown, but its worth noting that from Sep-Dec, it mostly stayed in the kids with some spill over to the parents age groups 30-50 but not much beyond that, so this could be the same.
How long will it last? Don't know, but my guess would be not long, 2-4 weeks perhaps, but that's a just my feeling not based on much.
Anybody else with their 2p worth?
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/3740791#Comment_3740791
I'd say mask observance was down to 80% on public transport this weekend. I expect it to be more like 30% tomorrow....
Perhaps a more interesting question is whether we get any more defections from Red Wall seats who follow the same logic as Wakeford i.e. I need to save my career, better to move now. My guess is not for now but could happen.
I've been trying to lay his exit prior to April 1st again but I missed the 2.36 available earlier and the price is now 3.45.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/shock-poll-finds-boris-johnson-among-12-london-conservative-mps-set-to-lose-seat-at-next-election/ar-AASVNey?ocid=entnewsntp
You also have to look at the other side of the coin. Of all the measures a government can take, mask mandates on public transport and other key places are without any doubt the least expensive, the least disruptive, and have the least adverse effect on people's lives.
I agree mandating them is schools is probably not effective enough to justify the downside, which is why I haven't argued for that.
The key thing is start from the evidence and work towards the policy.
It also seems conservative mps have accepted that the Boris decision will happen quickly after his statement on it to the house
Did you pick this up or were you told?