LauraK: "Let's be plain: this is an appalling result for the Conservatives...this is a disaster"
"People on the ground say it is clear what happened...[the Downing Street video] is when support fell off a cliff"
"There are people in the Conservative Party who are pencilling in the possibility of a summer leadership election...there is no doubt this is a really dangerous moment for the PM"
Big big mistake if they’re waiting that long to get him out.
I can't see how anyone can pull together a 2024 Brexit coalition from the ashes of the burnt promises of Boris's Oven-ready Brexit deal.
This is the key, and also why the Brexiteers keep saying Brexit is over.
What they mean is "Please, please, please stop talking about Brexit in case anyone actually looks at what a steaming pile of crap it is"
None of my identified 3 groups are happy. The Singaporers have got MORE taxes not less, the Msercantilers have more cost and faff than ever, and the Workers Collective have less money than they had before. Even then "jam tomorrow" dog whistles like "we'll get rid of the ECJ" are falling apart because no we won't.
Whats left? Yosemite?
Your Workers Collective have full employment and higher wages.
They also see new houses being built which will be bought by themselves or their kids.
So why do so many of them feel worse off? A few truckers being paid more isn't the entire working class - little has improved for most, inflation is running away and they're about to get slammed by a big tax cut.
And you make the same mistake on houses as Philip does. Red wall Brexiteers voted Tory and independent at both national and local level to STOP these houses being built. They don't want them. Roads are congested, schools and hospitals are full. They don't need more people. So they vote for the candidates - Tories and independents - who say they will stop the people responsible - Labour.
On the result, is LDs give govt a midterm kicking really big news?
Yes, because it comes in the middle of a scandal. You can point to other by elections all day long, but the level to which the public is engaged in this sort of thing, that narrative isn't going to reach them. It's a simple story:
Tory corruption and sleaze -> Tories lose -> Come in, number 55, time's up
While we obsessives pore over tables, the public's going to spend 10 seconds on this and come to the right conclusion.
There's always one reason or another for a midterm by election loss.
I can't see how anyone can pull together a 2024 Brexit coalition from the ashes of the burnt promises of Boris's Oven-ready Brexit deal.
This is the key, and also why the Brexiteers keep saying Brexit is over.
What they mean is "Please, please, please stop talking about Brexit in case anyone actually looks at what a steaming pile of crap it is"
What happened to your predictions of mass unemployment and empty supermarkets ?
We haven't had Brexit yet, not fully. Customs in not implemented, remember.
Boris and co are going to do everything they can to minimise the pain of paperwork on imports because they fear the consequences without understanding the consequences of not implementing them.
Interesting result, which I got wrong. Some wait and see is required, but overall it increases the chance of the centre left majority in the electorate operating efficiently enough to win.
Part of the 'wait and see' is that the chance of Boris being leader at the next GE is much smaller, and so the area of known unknowns is increased.
A Tory problem is: can they win from the more populist right (again). If the answer is not, then One Nation leadership from the overcrowded centre is the better option - bit it is a risk.
Congratulations to the Lib Dems. I’m glad they won in this instance: the Tories deserved a kicking.
Re the Labour performance, it doesn’t really tell us much. Lib Dems are often the protest vote in safer seats because it’s easier for a lot of otherwise die-hard Tory (or back in the Blair Brown years, Labour) voters to switch to them more comfortably as a protest. We would need a by election in a Lab-Tory marginal to assess how things are going in those seats - though I suspect not good for the blues at the moment.
Even Tory backbenchers who are deeply angry don't seem about to move, though, MD. Sir Roger Gale called it Boris' "second strike; three strikes and he's out..." There will be a pause for reflection. Of course our esteemed PM is quite capable of a third strike in the meantime...
Roger Gale was one of the old farts who tried to protect Paterson.
He's lucky that Thanet North Conservatives haven't bothered to count the number of strikes he's had.
Nah, Lib Dems win protest by-elections. It isn't news.
This result is about as meaningful as Brecon and Radnorshire, won by the Lib Dems a few months before the Tories won an 80 seat majority.
I think you’re wrong. Two new things are happening. The centre left anti Tory vote is energised and organised and the leaders of Labour and the LibDems are going after and successfully winning Tory voters.
Oh really? What has the leader of Labour won?
The leader of the Lib Dems has won by-elections, as leaders of the Lib Dems have a great history of doing, but I must have slept through Labour winning Tory voters over. Which by-election did that occur in? Did Labour win Old Bexley when I wasn't looking?
Unsurprisingly Labour didn’t win OB&S in 2021, much as they didn’t in 1997. But there was a decent Tory->Lab swing that brings the parties roughly back to where they were in 2005.
I am delighted that 2019 Tory voters are backing the LDs and Labour. You’ve got a fight on your hands. Just as it should be.
One of the most consistently underestimated themes for this UK government is the extent to which they want to be the closest possible partners of the US, and their disappointment that this is not happening. Entire swathes of Brexit and trade policy are dominated by this.
LauraK: "Let's be plain: this is an appalling result for the Conservatives...this is a disaster"
"People on the ground say it is clear what happened...[the Downing Street video] is when support fell off a cliff"
"There are people in the Conservative Party who are pencilling in the possibility of a summer leadership election...there is no doubt this is a really dangerous moment for the PM"
Big big mistake if they’re waiting that long to get him out.
Seems likely no one will make a move before they see what happens in locals in May.
If the public have tired of the end of the pier act then they need to make sure they throw a load of Tory councillors out in May and the 1922 will do the rest.
Plus, a point I keep making: there is a failure to understand the extent to which h*nting is the social glue which holds shire Tory society together. Not everyone did it or had any real interest in it, but they instinctively feel it's who they are, as with the C of E. These people don't vote LD even as a protest, let alone Labour, but they abstain in droves. Fat slob can't be bothered to repeal the hunting act? Why should I bother to vote for him?
I can't see how anyone can pull together a 2024 Brexit coalition from the ashes of the burnt promises of Boris's Oven-ready Brexit deal.
This is the key, and also why the Brexiteers keep saying Brexit is over.
What they mean is "Please, please, please stop talking about Brexit in case anyone actually looks at what a steaming pile of crap it is"
What happened to your predictions of mass unemployment and empty supermarkets ?
On the morning where the Tories got a beating by remainers in a leave bastion its a fascinating defence.
The food industry is facing its worst crisis since April 2020 - vast amounts of food that nobody wants. We've gone from "we can't make high labour hours fancy stuff as we can't get the workers" to "reduce the number of products to eek the most units out of the capacity we have" to "everyone is cancelling Christmas parties, anyone want to buy a 1kg bag of pigs in blankets".
And then on New Years Day we finally implement the much-delayed import protocols we insisted on. As we still don't have sufficient capacity of people / parking / computer system to cope it will be an interesting rise for the Mercantilists.
The new MP read history at Trinity College, Cambridge.
I read detective novels philosophy at Trinity College, Cambridge.
Does anyone know when Ms Morgan, née Halcrow was at Trinity?
She’s 46 so she’d have started in 1992 or 1993 depending on gap years etc
I'm 46 and started uni in 1994.
Depends on when in the year her birthday is; i.e. academic years. Someone born before the end of August would be expected, gap years ignored, to be at Uni the year before someone born after September 1st.
Though Cambridge isn’t too fussy - I was born in early September and still started there in the year of my 18th birthday (I’d skipped a year of primary school and carried that all the way through).
Doing that isn't easy in the State school system AIUI, which can result, of course, in the early years. in children born in August 'competing' in class with children born almost a year earlier. OK for the brightest, but can be a problem for those not so fortunate.
Indeed. I believe it’s practically impossible now - at Mrs Capitano’s school there are several kids who’d benefit both socially and academically from changing year (whether up or down), but a system geared towards SATs and league tables is never going to allow that.
I have a great-nephew, born in August, who would definitely be helped if he could. One of my granddaughters, in another country, whose birthday is late August was quietly forgotten about, school-wise to two or three days. Consequently she's fine.
Our youngest's birthday is in early September, but she's still one of the shortest in her year, possibly the shortest. If she'd been born 9 days earlier and been in the year above she would be absolutely tiny for her year, like her older sister, who's birthday is in late July. Some quirk of genetics has made all our kids really tiny, despite my wife and I both being average height. Academically being a summer baby hasn't harmed my oldest, but I think my youngest has definitely benefited from being the oldest in her year.
As far as birth month and academic progress and physical prowess is concerned Malcolm Gladwell wrote a book about it!
Nearly 22 hours since I got my booster - Pfizer - and apart from a tiny bit of soreness where I was jabbed I feel fine. Long may it continue!
Meant to be having mine this evening - then straight out running Saturday morning. And Sunday morning as well. Fingers crossed...
Fingers crossed for you too. But don't overdo it.
I had my Pfizer yesterday morning. I've just come back from a seven-mile run, and am in bed feeling dizzy and a bit nauseous. And my harm hurts like *******.
But at least I've got today's run over with, and the little 'un's going to school so I can just sleep.
Good man.
I had both my AZ's without suffering any side effects at all, but I'm not taking anything for granted.
Certainly if I do end up feeling like death warmed over I'll be staying home for the weekend. Won't be any use for cross country if I'm vax zonked. I run with all the elegance and vitesse of a tortoise wading through treacle at the best of times.
Wow! As speedy as a tortoise wading through treacle! I'm at the sloth crossing a busy motorway stage. At least, that's how I feel at the moment. Rather flat ...
I'm actually a really slow runner, but I do seem able to maintain regular reasonable distances. And I am nearly fifty, so I can always blame age.
(Although it's rather embarrassing when I get overtaken by an evidently much older man...)
I’m also of the slow runner clan. For many reasons I just don’t seem able to run that fast, even at my fittest. Resting heart rate low fifties, but carrying too much weight. Best 5k time 26 minutes, best 10k 55 min. But a few years ago happy to churn out (slow) half marathons. I find you exploits inspiring. Do you never get injured?
Thanks for that.
Your times are about my best as well. My neighbour - over ten years younger than me - can do a 10k in 40 minutes. We never run together. I also never do official runs - I think if I did I'd get carried along, and might manage a sub 50-min 10K. That's my target.
As for injury: I got a minor niggle a couple of years ago, but this year I've had no real issues. I think only one blister as well. My guess is that I've been lucky, and the fact I used to be a long-distance walker means my feet and legs are used to regular exercise. I'm terrified of my ankle injury coming back, but so far - fingers crossed - it's been fine.
If anything, I have fewer injuries whilst going through one of my manic walking or running phases: if I don't do too much for a month, then I start getting back and other pains from lounging around ...
Thats very interesting. My wife has completed over 20 marathons (enough to have lost count). Along the way we became aware of the 100 marathon club, essentially nutters who do marathons all the time. Most people who do an odd marathon (bucket list thing, or raise money for a charity) cannot conceive of doing 100+ (and indeed many hundreds of marathons) but these guys don't really 'race' anywhere - they mainly just like plodding round really long runs. I've heard of them doing 4 in a week (sat, sun, wed and sun for instance). I think there is something to be said for conditioning the body to regular exercise like this, as long as it is a steady effort, and that sound very much like what you do. Top work!
On the result, is LDs give govt a midterm kicking really big news?
Yes, because it comes in the middle of a scandal. You can point to other by elections all day long, but the level to which the public is engaged in this sort of thing, that narrative isn't going to reach them. It's a simple story:
Tory corruption and sleaze -> Tories lose -> Come in, number 55, time's up
While we obsessives pore over tables, the public's going to spend 10 seconds on this and come to the right conclusion.
There's always one reason or another for a midterm by election loss.
But as others have pointed out, never had a by election been so directly caused by the actions of the PM and rarely has a result been driven by anger at their character.
Axe the buffoon now. In both the national and party interest there is no alternative if further damage is to be avoided.
Pussyfooting around and not throwing May overboard after her 2017 election debacle was a foolish mistake, and the PCP should finally learn how to take on board the lessons of recent times. They failed to do this when they opted for the clown when they had the perfect example of Corbyn, and if they waste time instead of bringing the hammer down on the fool's career now then they will simply repeat the mistake of 2017.
In a few months cold feet and other factors might make it so that the PM's career survives. And then there's a year long wait, which is mid-2023, at the earliest.
Stop pussyfooting around, Conservative MPs. For the sake of your own careers, your own party, *and* the country, show some ruthlessness and be rid of this incompetent.
I don't think we need to worry about cold feet. What respite is there coming for Peppa? The Standards Commissioner is about to dig deep into flatgate, there are more bunga bunga party revelations coming, the scientists are now openly contradicting him in press conferences as Omicron demolishes people and businesses, investigations into PPE are pending, same with the handling of the pandemic. And for the mouth-foamers we can't stop migrants and we're caving into our own agreement/the EU over NI and the ECJ. And then that massive tax rise kicks in.
Where does this get any easier for him?
The position is objectively difficult for any PM, actually, especially a Conservative one - yes, many of us wouldn't have started from here, and we wouldn't be making the same unforced errors, but the pandemic plus the contradictions of hard Brexit plus the intractability of the refugee issue would make it difficult for any Tory PM. A subtle danger for the Tories is that they conclude the problem is Johnson, rush to replace him with, say, Truss, and find that she sinks in the same way. They can't credibly change leaders twice in one Parliament.
Nah, Lib Dems win protest by-elections. It isn't news.
This result is about as meaningful as Brecon and Radnorshire, won by the Lib Dems a few months before the Tories won an 80 seat majority.
I think you’re wrong. Two new things are happening. The centre left anti Tory vote is energised and organised and the leaders of Labour and the LibDems are going after and successfully winning Tory voters.
Oh really? What has the leader of Labour won?
The leader of the Lib Dems has won by-elections, as leaders of the Lib Dems have a great history of doing, but I must have slept through Labour winning Tory voters over. Which by-election did that occur in? Did Labour win Old Bexley when I wasn't looking?
Unsurprisingly Labour didn’t win OB&S in 2021, much as they didn’t in 1997. But there was a decent Tory->Lab swing that brings the parties roughly back to where they were in 2005.
I am delighted that 2019 Tory voters are backing the LDs and Labour. You’ve got a fight on your hands. Just as it should be.
Counterfactual: what if NS had been 2 weeks ago and OB&S today?
It's hard to exaggerate the extraordinary pace at which Omkron is ripping through the UK, espec London. I'm worried about what it will do in Germany, with its lower vax rate among over-60s and small (tho growing quickly) booster share. This thread has some worrying predictions.
One of the most consistently underestimated themes for this UK government is the extent to which they want to be the closest possible partners of the US, and their disappointment that this is not happening. Entire swathes of Brexit and trade policy are dominated by this.
I can't see how anyone can pull together a 2024 Brexit coalition from the ashes of the burnt promises of Boris's Oven-ready Brexit deal.
This is the key, and also why the Brexiteers keep saying Brexit is over.
What they mean is "Please, please, please stop talking about Brexit in case anyone actually looks at what a steaming pile of crap it is"
None of my identified 3 groups are happy. The Singaporers have got MORE taxes not less, the Msercantilers have more cost and faff than ever, and the Workers Collective have less money than they had before. Even then "jam tomorrow" dog whistles like "we'll get rid of the ECJ" are falling apart because no we won't.
Whats left? Yosemite?
Your Workers Collective have full employment and higher wages.
They also see new houses being built which will be bought by themselves or their kids.
So why do so many of them feel worse off? A few truckers being paid more isn't the entire working class - little has improved for most, inflation is running away and they're about to get slammed by a big tax cut.
And you make the same mistake on houses as Philip does. Red wall Brexiteers voted Tory and independent at both national and local level to STOP these houses being built. They don't want them. Roads are congested, schools and hospitals are full. They don't need more people. So they vote for the candidates - Tories and independents - who say they will stop the people responsible - Labour.
I live in the Red Wall and have never heard complaints about more houses being built.
In mining areas, at least, new developments, whether they are housing or industrial, are a sign of increasing prosperity and are welcomed.
As for pay rises there's plenty of them in manufacturing and construction currently - maybe different in the public sector and some services.
I can't see how anyone can pull together a 2024 Brexit coalition from the ashes of the burnt promises of Boris's Oven-ready Brexit deal.
This is the key, and also why the Brexiteers keep saying Brexit is over.
What they mean is "Please, please, please stop talking about Brexit in case anyone actually looks at what a steaming pile of crap it is"
What happened to your predictions of mass unemployment and empty supermarkets ?
All the Eastern Europeans went home so the opposite occurred and fruit and vegetables are rotting in the fields.
Empty supermarket shelves, what empty supermarket shelves? The supermarkets after seeing what empty shelves looked like have done a sterling job of double, triple and quadruple facing products to mask shortages. M&S and Waitrose Christmas "click and collect" products were sold out weeks and weeks ago.
People are noticing things aren't what they were, and however much you protest everything is fine and dandy they won't believe you as a Conservative apologist. The people of N. Shropshire didn't believe Conservative apologists.
Axe the buffoon now. In both the national and party interest there is no alternative if further damage is to be avoided.
Pussyfooting around and not throwing May overboard after her 2017 election debacle was a foolish mistake, and the PCP should finally learn how to take on board the lessons of recent times. They failed to do this when they opted for the clown when they had the perfect example of Corbyn, and if they waste time instead of bringing the hammer down on the fool's career now then they will simply repeat the mistake of 2017.
In a few months cold feet and other factors might make it so that the PM's career survives. And then there's a year long wait, which is mid-2023, at the earliest.
Stop pussyfooting around, Conservative MPs. For the sake of your own careers, your own party, *and* the country, show some ruthlessness and be rid of this incompetent.
I don't think we need to worry about cold feet. What respite is there coming for Peppa? The Standards Commissioner is about to dig deep into flatgate, there are more bunga bunga party revelations coming, the scientists are now openly contradicting him in press conferences as Omicron demolishes people and businesses, investigations into PPE are pending, same with the handling of the pandemic. And for the mouth-foamers we can't stop migrants and we're caving into our own agreement/the EU over NI and the ECJ. And then that massive tax rise kicks in.
Where does this get any easier for him?
The position is objectively difficult for any PM, actually, especially a Conservative one - yes, many of us wouldn't have started from here, and we wouldn't be making the same unforced errors, but the pandemic plus the contradictions of hard Brexit plus the intractability of the refugee issue would make it difficult for any Tory PM. A subtle danger for the Tories is that they conclude the problem is Johnson, rush to replace him with, say, Truss, and find that she sinks in the same way. They can't credibly change leaders twice in one Parliament.
Truss could easily turn into a female clown. Types of cheese and Peppa Pig aren't so very far apart in terms of trivial diversions from big issue politics.
Nah, Lib Dems win protest by-elections. It isn't news.
This result is about as meaningful as Brecon and Radnorshire, won by the Lib Dems a few months before the Tories won an 80 seat majority.
I think you’re wrong. Two new things are happening. The centre left anti Tory vote is energised and organised and the leaders of Labour and the LibDems are going after and successfully winning Tory voters.
Oh really? What has the leader of Labour won?
The leader of the Lib Dems has won by-elections, as leaders of the Lib Dems have a great history of doing, but I must have slept through Labour winning Tory voters over. Which by-election did that occur in? Did Labour win Old Bexley when I wasn't looking?
Unsurprisingly Labour didn’t win OB&S in 2021, much as they didn’t in 1997. But there was a decent Tory->Lab swing that brings the parties roughly back to where they were in 2005.
I am delighted that 2019 Tory voters are backing the LDs and Labour. You’ve got a fight on your hands. Just as it should be.
Counterfactual: what if NS had been 2 weeks ago and OB&S today?
Interesting. A week is a long time in politics. Two weeks an eternity.
What wonderful news to wake up to. Happy political moments have been vanishingly rare for me in recent years.
I wonder if NS shows that there is more than one type of Brexit vote. This is a traditional, livestock dominated, rural marches seat. Classically conservative, but very different from Hartlepool or Mansfield. Brexit may have become much less salient in Shropshire (and Herefordshire, Somerset, Devon) but perhaps it and the culture wars still retain their power in places further North and East.
I grew up in the Marches and it was never a hotbed of anti immigrant sentiment or wartime nostalgia. But it was also deeply unimpressed by metropolitan types.
To use a French analogy, the sort of place that might happily vote for Pecresse but not Le Pen. As those presidential maps show across the livestock farming regions across the Massif Central.
A great post. I think there three main groupings: "Singapore-on-Thames" - the hard right low tax low regulation state where the plebs get to work long hours in unsafe conditions for the betterment of their masters "Mercantile Britain" - lets be freed from restrictions about how we farm / fish / make stuff so that we can be more competitive "Workers Collective of Britain" - better jobs with better pay and conditions for me, flag and country patriotism
The first group and the third group are directly contradictory. The plebs that the John Redwoods of the world want to exploit with Brexit are the workers who expect to be paid more and treated better by the likes of John Redwood thanks to Brexit.
And the Mercantilers in the middle just want to make, sell, do. They wanted rid of the perceived red tape of the EU and things like the CAP and CFP.
Are any of these groups happy now? Higher taxes all round, a temporary spike in wages for a few small groups and everyone else feeling worse off, and mountains of red tape making even what they made / grew / sold before more expensive and harder.
I can't see how anyone can pull together a 2024 Brexit coalition from the ashes of the burnt promises of Boris's Oven-ready Brexit deal.
I think this is quite an astute post in terms of the categorisations, at least as far as an economic division of Brexit goes. I would fall firmly into the second category and yes I am very happy with Brexit. It is not perfect but then only fools expect perfection. But it still beats what we had before by a very long way.
Appreciate the nod. Quick question on your place in the Mercantile group - are you one of the people who is actually doing the mercantiling? You have to work very very hard to find happy voices out there who actually produce and trade stuff. There undoubtedly are some, but few, and massively outweighed by those who think vast increases in red tape and cost and reduced worker numbers is a Bad Thing.
Yep I have a small company that makes and sells model vehicles. That is in addition to my main career providing consultancy services. There is a bit more obvious paperwork when dealing with the EU but mostly that has been an up front process which is now in place. But as a country we are now removed from vast swathes of present and future rules and regulations on a wider scale outside of commerce which for me is a good thing.
Of course the economics of this has never for me been the point of it so it is easier for me to claim satisfaction and I would still have pushed for EFTA membership. But like I said, I never expected perfection.
I think EFTA, or pseudo-EFTA is where the Sunak government will steer us. Your model vehicles and their parts are under far less of the cosh than many other sectors, happily. You say "we are now removed from vast swathes of present and future rules and regulations" - a genuine question as to which regulations other than CAP/CFP no longer apply. We haven't diverged from EEA regs and we show no signs that we are about to.
The tragedy of Brexit is that we're drowning ourselves in cost and red tape to keep doing the exact same thing we were doing before. Even quitting CAP/CFP hasn't benefitted the food sector as the cost and complexity of import / export now outweighs the previous complexities.
Even Tory backbenchers who are deeply angry don't seem about to move, though, MD. Sir Roger Gale called it Boris' "second strike; three strikes and he's out..." There will be a pause for reflection. Of course our esteemed PM is quite capable of a third strike in the meantime...
Roger Gale was one of the old farts who tried to protect Paterson.
He's lucky that Thanet North Conservatives haven't bothered to count the number of strikes he's had.
They Tories have quite a few of his type. The point is not his credibility, or that of any of his fellow MPs - simply that they are the ones who will, in the first instance, decide Boris' future.
I expect a small bump for the Lib Dems in the polls next week thanks to the NS publicity. Interesting and telling to see who they take it from. I would guess probably the greens. May also see a further notch downwards for the Tories because the shy Tory factor may start to make itself felt again: people embarrassed to admit who they support.
On the result, is LDs give govt a midterm kicking really big news?
Yes, because it comes in the middle of a scandal. You can point to other by elections all day long, but the level to which the public is engaged in this sort of thing, that narrative isn't going to reach them. It's a simple story:
Tory corruption and sleaze -> Tories lose -> Come in, number 55, time's up
While we obsessives pore over tables, the public's going to spend 10 seconds on this and come to the right conclusion.
There's always one reason or another for a midterm by election loss.
But as others have pointed out, never had a by election been so directly caused by the actions of the PM and rarely has a result been driven by anger at their character.
and I think the usual media support(Daily Mail, Telegraph and Express) seem to have decided that BJ is past his best and will remind the faithful thus.... its a toxic time for him
Just to reiterate from the last thread that if the Lib Dems can viably support a minority Labour government by themselves, the Tory 'Vote Labour get SNP' line of attack is going to be way, way less potent.
Does that mean SLabbers’ ‘the only way for Scots to get rid of the Tories is to vote Labour’ line will be less potent (if that were possible)?
Nah, Lib Dems win protest by-elections. It isn't news.
This result is about as meaningful as Brecon and Radnorshire, won by the Lib Dems a few months before the Tories won an 80 seat majority.
I think you’re wrong. Two new things are happening. The centre left anti Tory vote is energised and organised and the leaders of Labour and the LibDems are going after and successfully winning Tory voters.
Oh really? What has the leader of Labour won?
The leader of the Lib Dems has won by-elections, as leaders of the Lib Dems have a great history of doing, but I must have slept through Labour winning Tory voters over. Which by-election did that occur in? Did Labour win Old Bexley when I wasn't looking?
Unsurprisingly Labour didn’t win OB&S in 2021, much as they didn’t in 1997. But there was a decent Tory->Lab swing that brings the parties roughly back to where they were in 2005.
I am delighted that 2019 Tory voters are backing the LDs and Labour. You’ve got a fight on your hands. Just as it should be.
Counterfactual: what if NS had been 2 weeks ago and OB&S today?
I suspect that a sense that the LibDems had been unfairly lucky with the timing was partly why Labour lately decided to throw a lot of effort toward NS, as well as the more obvious not wanting to be embarassed and possibly hoping for a Tory hold.
Mr. Pioneers, don't underestimate the power of inertia when it comes to removing leaders.
Indeed. "SOMETHING MUST BE DONE" so often results in nothing being done. But once the acorn starts to roll inertia is replaced by momentum. And its difficult to conclude that it isn't - the only question is whether the momentum fades away. With all these new events exploding the fervour to Do Something seems to be getting louder, not quieter.
We shall see. NS puts blue wall Tories in the yellow crosshairs as much as red wallers as in the red crosshairs. A second front may open up...
He does at least hold cards which Corbyn never could.
Labour cannot win on their own - as Corby demonstrated. And a Labour leader in the Corbyn pattern would never get support from the LibDems. I'm sure you'll regard that as a good thing, but it's also what ensured he would never be in government.
I can't see how anyone can pull together a 2024 Brexit coalition from the ashes of the burnt promises of Boris's Oven-ready Brexit deal.
This is the key, and also why the Brexiteers keep saying Brexit is over.
What they mean is "Please, please, please stop talking about Brexit in case anyone actually looks at what a steaming pile of crap it is"
None of my identified 3 groups are happy. The Singaporers have got MORE taxes not less, the Msercantilers have more cost and faff than ever, and the Workers Collective have less money than they had before. Even then "jam tomorrow" dog whistles like "we'll get rid of the ECJ" are falling apart because no we won't.
Whats left? Yosemite?
Your Workers Collective have full employment and higher wages.
They also see new houses being built which will be bought by themselves or their kids.
So why do so many of them feel worse off? A few truckers being paid more isn't the entire working class - little has improved for most, inflation is running away and they're about to get slammed by a big tax cut.
And you make the same mistake on houses as Philip does. Red wall Brexiteers voted Tory and independent at both national and local level to STOP these houses being built. They don't want them. Roads are congested, schools and hospitals are full. They don't need more people. So they vote for the candidates - Tories and independents - who say they will stop the people responsible - Labour.
I live in the Red Wall and have never heard complaints about more houses being built.
In mining areas, at least, new developments, whether they are housing or industrial, are a sign of increasing prosperity and are welcomed.
As for pay rises there's plenty of them in manufacturing and construction currently - maybe different in the public sector and some services.
I tend to agree that new building in a lot of these constituencies has driven the rise in Conservative support.
As to North Shropshire, it's hard to see the result as undeserved.
I can't see how anyone can pull together a 2024 Brexit coalition from the ashes of the burnt promises of Boris's Oven-ready Brexit deal.
This is the key, and also why the Brexiteers keep saying Brexit is over.
What they mean is "Please, please, please stop talking about Brexit in case anyone actually looks at what a steaming pile of crap it is"
What happened to your predictions of mass unemployment and empty supermarkets ?
All the Eastern Europeans went home so the opposite occurred and fruit and vegetables are rotting in the fields.
Empty supermarket shelves, what empty supermarket shelves? The supermarkets after seeing what empty shelves looked like have done a sterling job of double, triple and quadruple facing products to mask shortages. M&S and Waitrose Christmas "click and collect" products were sold out weeks and weeks ago.
People are noticing things aren't what they were, and however much you protest everything is fine and dandy they won't believe you as a Conservative apologist. The people of N. Shropshire didn't believe Conservative apologists.
So if the fruit and vegetables are rotting in the fields why are the supermarkets filled with fruit and vegetables displaying union jacks ?
It would be very hard to see the Tories losing the next general election if they hadn't first suffered some bad by-election defeats. So some of the necessary conditions for such a defeat are being put in place.
A long way to go still, and the position is still recoverable.
Allegra Stratton's husband...."He's the most unpopular Prime Minister at this stage since Major after Black Wednesday...when he stops winning, he's got a problem"
Oh well, sounds like it’s the Christmas party cancellation season getting into full swing.
My wife’s company brunch ‘do’ binned this morning at three hours’ notice, after one of her colleagues tested positive overnight. Hopefully wifey and the rest of her company are all negative.
Cue Philip demanding that they all go anyway. Perhaps the positive colleague could do some snogging whilst there - likely feels dreadful right now and not up for party party. But its her patriotic duty to infect as many of her colleagues as possible.
Thinking about that once again (briefly!), the combination of libertarians with explosively selfreplicating biological systems is not a happy one. Think of the libertarians who liberated rabbits or cane toads in Australia just because these individuals thought it a good idea. And then consider what happens if Ms Colleague turns out not to have covid-19 but ebola-22. Or if the dynamics of this new covid variant simply [edit] make the 'let it rip' argument otiose (for instance, if there is no cross immunity).
Hmm. Whilst I get your point, Cane Toads were introduced by the Australian and Queensland Governments not by private individuals. And rabbits in Australia were originally protected by an act of Parliament.
Nah, Lib Dems win protest by-elections. It isn't news.
This result is about as meaningful as Brecon and Radnorshire, won by the Lib Dems a few months before the Tories won an 80 seat majority.
I think you’re wrong. Two new things are happening. The centre left anti Tory vote is energised and organised and the leaders of Labour and the LibDems are going after and successfully winning Tory voters.
Oh really? What has the leader of Labour won?
The leader of the Lib Dems has won by-elections, as leaders of the Lib Dems have a great history of doing, but I must have slept through Labour winning Tory voters over. Which by-election did that occur in? Did Labour win Old Bexley when I wasn't looking?
Unsurprisingly Labour didn’t win OB&S in 2021, much as they didn’t in 1997. But there was a decent Tory->Lab swing that brings the parties roughly back to where they were in 2005.
I am delighted that 2019 Tory voters are backing the LDs and Labour. You’ve got a fight on your hands. Just as it should be.
Counterfactual: what if NS had been 2 weeks ago and OB&S today?
Not convinced. The demographics are so different. Both OB&S and NS may be strongly Brexit leaning, but one is white van and black cab central, the other is dairy farmers and market towns. Hard to see the good burghers of OB&S trooping to the polls, copy of the Sun in hand, to put a cross against the Labour box.
Tom Peck @tompeck · 1h I suppose what is actually historic is that it’s not merely Boris Johnson’s fault they lost the by-election, it’s also his fault they even had it.
This and this again. This was an entirely unforced error. The only reason we are discussing this at all this morning was a dinner at the Reform Club where he was persuaded to try and save Paterson. That shows a complete lack of political judgment that should worry Tories more than anything else. He has just pissed huge amount of political capital up the wall for nothing.
As Mike points out in the header, Labour haven’t gained a seat from the Tories at a by-election since Corby in 2012.
The public aren’t happy with the government, but they’re not convinced by Labour. Yet.
What? Whistling in the dark. It is an unmitigated rout. Life long Tories are utterly furious. The PMs own missteps have created a defeat of historic proportions. Ignore this final warning and the Conservatives are heading for a sellacking that could dwarf 1997.
I think there are interesting parallels between Johnson and Corbyn. Corbyn's achievement in 2017 was genuinely astonishing, and unexpected. He still lost, but what a close thing it was. But two years later and events had shown him up for what he was. Combined with the shenanigans over Brexit, and a public that saw Boris as different and fresh (for all that he wasn't really fresh, and definitely isn't different), and the Tories won a resounding victory, and Corbyn was buried. Now, two years on (and what a couple of years - no-one could have foreseen covid, or that we would still be grappling with it now after a year of mass vaccination), the shine has come off the turd that is Johnson and the public sees him as he really is. He doesn't give a shit about you and I, the only thing that matters is him being world king and sticking his member into as many blondes as he can. If he stays as leader of the Tories I think they could well be utterly smashed, except it won't quite be 1997 - Scotland will have vast hordes of SNP, and in RUK there will not be enough Labour seats for a majority, so it will inevitably be a coalition or C&S.
Can the Tories prevent this? Changing the leader is fine, but recent times have shown that too many Tory MP's really haven't changed - they are still the venal, grasping wankers we've always seen. Whenever they are in power too long the shit rises to the top.
Change the leader, and possibly the Tories might cling on, assuming covid is well on its way to being less serious (not impossible). Is there a charismatic, young Tory who could re-invigorate the party while in power? Or do they need once again to get kicked out to go and have a real hard think about things again...
Note to residual Corbynistas: it's actually possible for a politician to do well in one election, and then lose popularity so much he becomes a liability 2 years later.
I can't see how anyone can pull together a 2024 Brexit coalition from the ashes of the burnt promises of Boris's Oven-ready Brexit deal.
This is the key, and also why the Brexiteers keep saying Brexit is over.
What they mean is "Please, please, please stop talking about Brexit in case anyone actually looks at what a steaming pile of crap it is"
None of my identified 3 groups are happy. The Singaporers have got MORE taxes not less, the Msercantilers have more cost and faff than ever, and the Workers Collective have less money than they had before. Even then "jam tomorrow" dog whistles like "we'll get rid of the ECJ" are falling apart because no we won't.
Whats left? Yosemite?
Your Workers Collective have full employment and higher wages.
They also see new houses being built which will be bought by themselves or their kids.
So why do so many of them feel worse off? A few truckers being paid more isn't the entire working class - little has improved for most, inflation is running away and they're about to get slammed by a big tax cut.
And you make the same mistake on houses as Philip does. Red wall Brexiteers voted Tory and independent at both national and local level to STOP these houses being built. They don't want them. Roads are congested, schools and hospitals are full. They don't need more people. So they vote for the candidates - Tories and independents - who say they will stop the people responsible - Labour.
I live in the Red Wall and have never heard complaints about more houses being built.
In mining areas, at least, new developments, whether they are housing or industrial, are a sign of increasing prosperity and are welcomed.
As for pay rises there's plenty of them in manufacturing and construction currently - maybe different in the public sector and some services.
I tend to agree that new building in a lot of these constituencies has driven the rise in Conservative support.
As to North Shropshire, it's hard to see the result as undeserved.
Very deserved.
And hopefully will act as a spur to an improvement in government conduct.
One of the most consistently underestimated themes for this UK government is the extent to which they want to be the closest possible partners of the US, and their disappointment that this is not happening. Entire swathes of Brexit and trade policy are dominated by this.
I assume that’s partly on the back of that embarrassing Penny Mordaunt speech? If this current mob are still in charge by 2024 I can see them praying for the return of Trump.
It would be very hard to see the Tories losing the next general election if they hadn't first suffered some bad by-election defeats. So some of the necessary conditions for such a defeat are being put in place.
A long way to go still, and the position is still recoverable.
I can't see how anyone can pull together a 2024 Brexit coalition from the ashes of the burnt promises of Boris's Oven-ready Brexit deal.
This is the key, and also why the Brexiteers keep saying Brexit is over.
What they mean is "Please, please, please stop talking about Brexit in case anyone actually looks at what a steaming pile of crap it is"
None of my identified 3 groups are happy. The Singaporers have got MORE taxes not less, the Msercantilers have more cost and faff than ever, and the Workers Collective have less money than they had before. Even then "jam tomorrow" dog whistles like "we'll get rid of the ECJ" are falling apart because no we won't.
Whats left? Yosemite?
Your Workers Collective have full employment and higher wages.
They also see new houses being built which will be bought by themselves or their kids.
So why do so many of them feel worse off? A few truckers being paid more isn't the entire working class - little has improved for most, inflation is running away and they're about to get slammed by a big tax cut.
And you make the same mistake on houses as Philip does. Red wall Brexiteers voted Tory and independent at both national and local level to STOP these houses being built. They don't want them. Roads are congested, schools and hospitals are full. They don't need more people. So they vote for the candidates - Tories and independents - who say they will stop the people responsible - Labour.
I live in the Red Wall and have never heard complaints about more houses being built.
In mining areas, at least, new developments, whether they are housing or industrial, are a sign of increasing prosperity and are welcomed.
As for pay rises there's plenty of them in manufacturing and construction currently - maybe different in the public sector and some services.
The red wall isn't uniform of course. My old parts of the red wall (on both the Lancashire and Yorkshire sides) are very very anti-new houses. Being associated with giving planning permission has been a political death sentence for various councillors I can think of. Tory leaflets campaign against Labour building houses everywhere.
There are pay rises where there is a shortage of labour. But as they are rapidly feeding through into inflation the people who haven't had 35% rises - and thats most people - just wonder why they're worse off. And then the tax rises kick in next April.
Fraser Nelson on R4 - Boris has a transactional relationship with the Conservative Party - "never mind this issue, look at me, I'm a winner, I win elections!" Doesn't work so well any more...however, don't expect any imminent moves against Johnson, cf Mrs May.
I can't see how anyone can pull together a 2024 Brexit coalition from the ashes of the burnt promises of Boris's Oven-ready Brexit deal.
This is the key, and also why the Brexiteers keep saying Brexit is over.
What they mean is "Please, please, please stop talking about Brexit in case anyone actually looks at what a steaming pile of crap it is"
None of my identified 3 groups are happy. The Singaporers have got MORE taxes not less, the Msercantilers have more cost and faff than ever, and the Workers Collective have less money than they had before. Even then "jam tomorrow" dog whistles like "we'll get rid of the ECJ" are falling apart because no we won't.
Whats left? Yosemite?
Your Workers Collective have full employment and higher wages.
They also see new houses being built which will be bought by themselves or their kids.
So why do so many of them feel worse off? A few truckers being paid more isn't the entire working class - little has improved for most, inflation is running away and they're about to get slammed by a big tax cut.
And you make the same mistake on houses as Philip does. Red wall Brexiteers voted Tory and independent at both national and local level to STOP these houses being built. They don't want them. Roads are congested, schools and hospitals are full. They don't need more people. So they vote for the candidates - Tories and independents - who say they will stop the people responsible - Labour.
Not accurate on the Red Wall.
There's no shortage of houses being built.
Which is very different from the situation 10 years ago.
I'd say that they are in real stuck if some strategic levelling up does not happen that can be seen and felt by each household.
I can't see how anyone can pull together a 2024 Brexit coalition from the ashes of the burnt promises of Boris's Oven-ready Brexit deal.
This is the key, and also why the Brexiteers keep saying Brexit is over.
What they mean is "Please, please, please stop talking about Brexit in case anyone actually looks at what a steaming pile of crap it is"
None of my identified 3 groups are happy. The Singaporers have got MORE taxes not less, the Msercantilers have more cost and faff than ever, and the Workers Collective have less money than they had before. Even then "jam tomorrow" dog whistles like "we'll get rid of the ECJ" are falling apart because no we won't.
Whats left? Yosemite?
Your Workers Collective have full employment and higher wages.
They also see new houses being built which will be bought by themselves or their kids.
So why do so many of them feel worse off? A few truckers being paid more isn't the entire working class - little has improved for most, inflation is running away and they're about to get slammed by a big tax cut.
And you make the same mistake on houses as Philip does. Red wall Brexiteers voted Tory and independent at both national and local level to STOP these houses being built. They don't want them. Roads are congested, schools and hospitals are full. They don't need more people. So they vote for the candidates - Tories and independents - who say they will stop the people responsible - Labour.
I live in the Red Wall and have never heard complaints about more houses being built.
In mining areas, at least, new developments, whether they are housing or industrial, are a sign of increasing prosperity and are welcomed.
As for pay rises there's plenty of them in manufacturing and construction currently - maybe different in the public sector and some services.
I tend to agree that new building in a lot of these constituencies has driven the rise in Conservative support.
As to North Shropshire, it's hard to see the result as undeserved.
May do in some areas. But where I am from the Tories campaign successfully against the blight of new homes.
Percentage shares of the vote from Wiki: Note: a 22% drop in turnout compared to the GE with Tory voters both switching to LD and sitting on their hands. A reminder to govt not to take the electorate for granted. But Helen Morgan unlikely to hold on at a general election.
While there is some commentary on “tactical voting” isn’t the bigger picture former Tory voters voting LD? Whether they will continue to do so or return to the Tories is the big unknown for the GE - if Johnson is still leading, then the chances are they may not return.
The question for me is will enough of the switchers stay switched and will that, combined with any tactical voting, be enough to get the Tories out next time? I hope so but I’m not confident.
English voters will be subject to scare stories at the next GE of a potential unholy alliance of Lab/LD/SNP. That may work to round up enough potential switchers back to the Blue team.
But is that enough now to scare the horses? Sturgeon’s had a good pandemic, she has good ratings in England, doesn’t she?
Yes.
‘Nicola Sturgeon is England's favourite political leader, poll finds’
Indeed, she seems more popular South of the border than North of it at times!.
I have often thought that if the Scots want independence, they should hold the referendum south of the border
Certainly will not be one while Sturgeon is on the throne, she wants Baw Jaws backing for some fancy sinecure abroad so will be lots of bluster but no rocking the boat. She has to get her fancy post before covid is over or she will be out of excuses.
Good morning Malcolm! How is sunny Scotland this morning?
Another reflection; if Labour hadn't run Ken Livingstone again against Johnson, would he have been a two-time Mayor? He lost vote share second time around against a definite past-it.
Just to reiterate from the last thread that if the Lib Dems can viably support a minority Labour government by themselves, the Tory 'Vote Labour get SNP' line of attack is going to be way, way less potent.
Does that mean SLabbers’ ‘the only way for Scots to get rid of the Tories is to vote Labour’ line will be less potent (if that were possible)?
SLabbers are pretty much non-existent in the public consciousness. Nobody pays them any attention.
It would be very hard to see the Tories losing the next general election if they hadn't first suffered some bad by-election defeats. So some of the necessary conditions for such a defeat are being put in place.
A long way to go still, and the position is still recoverable.
I can't see how anyone can pull together a 2024 Brexit coalition from the ashes of the burnt promises of Boris's Oven-ready Brexit deal.
This is the key, and also why the Brexiteers keep saying Brexit is over.
What they mean is "Please, please, please stop talking about Brexit in case anyone actually looks at what a steaming pile of crap it is"
What happened to your predictions of mass unemployment and empty supermarkets ?
All the Eastern Europeans went home so the opposite occurred and fruit and vegetables are rotting in the fields.
Empty supermarket shelves, what empty supermarket shelves? The supermarkets after seeing what empty shelves looked like have done a sterling job of double, triple and quadruple facing products to mask shortages. M&S and Waitrose Christmas "click and collect" products were sold out weeks and weeks ago.
People are noticing things aren't what they were, and however much you protest everything is fine and dandy they won't believe you as a Conservative apologist. The people of N. Shropshire didn't believe Conservative apologists.
So if the fruit and vegetables are rotting in the fields why are the supermarkets filled with fruit and vegetables displaying union jacks ?
Likewise the meat aisles.
Deal with reality.
And the reality is that supermarkets are full.
The people who have worked flat out to give the impression that "you can do your shop here" will be reassured that there was no crisis for them to work flat out to fix.
The problem now is a surplus of food. An awful lot of catering packs are surplus to requirements. Hard to say "see, no food shortages, I was right" when circumstances have swung massively so that there is now a surplus.
Still, if that line of defence is to make you better after last night, feel free.
Fraser Nelson on R4 - Boris has a transactional relationship with the Conservative Party - "never mind this issue, look at me, I'm a winner, I win elections!" Doesn't work so well any more...however, don't expect any imminent moves against Johnson, cf Mrs May.
I think the Tory ruthlessness is often overstated. They axed Thatcher but she had been in power for 11 years at that point and with her deep unpopularity at that point will also have come the natural desire for new blood after over a decade of one (incredibly dominant) individual at the helm. IDS was IDS, and they were fed up of being hammered at GEs and saw no way he could save them, even modestly. They didn’t axe May immediately after the 2017 GE.
I think what this has done has made a leadership challenge next year all the more likely if Boris malaise continues. I don’t think it will trigger an immediate call for him to go.
I can't see how anyone can pull together a 2024 Brexit coalition from the ashes of the burnt promises of Boris's Oven-ready Brexit deal.
This is the key, and also why the Brexiteers keep saying Brexit is over.
What they mean is "Please, please, please stop talking about Brexit in case anyone actually looks at what a steaming pile of crap it is"
None of my identified 3 groups are happy. The Singaporers have got MORE taxes not less, the Msercantilers have more cost and faff than ever, and the Workers Collective have less money than they had before. Even then "jam tomorrow" dog whistles like "we'll get rid of the ECJ" are falling apart because no we won't.
Whats left? Yosemite?
Your Workers Collective have full employment and higher wages.
They also see new houses being built which will be bought by themselves or their kids.
So why do so many of them feel worse off? A few truckers being paid more isn't the entire working class - little has improved for most, inflation is running away and they're about to get slammed by a big tax cut.
And you make the same mistake on houses as Philip does. Red wall Brexiteers voted Tory and independent at both national and local level to STOP these houses being built. They don't want them. Roads are congested, schools and hospitals are full. They don't need more people. So they vote for the candidates - Tories and independents - who say they will stop the people responsible - Labour.
I live in the Red Wall and have never heard complaints about more houses being built.
In mining areas, at least, new developments, whether they are housing or industrial, are a sign of increasing prosperity and are welcomed.
As for pay rises there's plenty of them in manufacturing and construction currently - maybe different in the public sector and some services.
I tend to agree that new building in a lot of these constituencies has driven the rise in Conservative support.
As to North Shropshire, it's hard to see the result as undeserved.
May do in some areas. But where I am from the Tories campaign successfully against the blight of new homes.
Stockton though has a unique set of circumstances - the infrastructure just doesn't exist to support the new estates and the Tees makes adding that infrastructure incredibly expensive.
Lot of excitement on here about BJ going but the Tories are not going to be rushed into getting rid of him until there is a credible alternative. So this is not the end for BJ but it probably is the beginning of the end.
I also wouldn’t be backing Rishi as next PM, some of the shine seems to be coming off. I’m still not convinced also that many MPs who select the final two think that Truss is a winner.
If I was to be looking for next leader, I’d be looking to the ranks of the rebels, preferably with a RW leaning.
Interesting result, which I got wrong. Some wait and see is required, but overall it increases the chance of the centre left majority in the electorate operating efficiently enough to win.
Part of the 'wait and see' is that the chance of Boris being leader at the next GE is much smaller, and so the area of known unknowns is increased.
A Tory problem is: can they win from the more populist right (again). If the answer is not, then One Nation leadership from the overcrowded centre is the better option - bit it is a risk.
Apart from Brexit Boris is not governing from the right but from the centre. It was Partygate which cost him last night not being too right-wing, indeed he needed Labour votes to get vaxports through and is spending more than any Tory PM since Macmillan
I can't see how anyone can pull together a 2024 Brexit coalition from the ashes of the burnt promises of Boris's Oven-ready Brexit deal.
This is the key, and also why the Brexiteers keep saying Brexit is over.
What they mean is "Please, please, please stop talking about Brexit in case anyone actually looks at what a steaming pile of crap it is"
What happened to your predictions of mass unemployment and empty supermarkets ?
All the Eastern Europeans went home so the opposite occurred and fruit and vegetables are rotting in the fields.
Empty supermarket shelves, what empty supermarket shelves? The supermarkets after seeing what empty shelves looked like have done a sterling job of double, triple and quadruple facing products to mask shortages. M&S and Waitrose Christmas "click and collect" products were sold out weeks and weeks ago.
People are noticing things aren't what they were, and however much you protest everything is fine and dandy they won't believe you as a Conservative apologist. The people of N. Shropshire didn't believe Conservative apologists.
So if the fruit and vegetables are rotting in the fields why are the supermarkets filled with fruit and vegetables displaying union jacks ?
Likewise the meat aisles.
Deal with reality.
And the reality is that supermarkets are full.
The people who have worked flat out to give the impression that "you can do your shop here" will be reassured that there was no crisis for them to work flat out to fix.
The problem now is a surplus of food. An awful lot of catering packs are surplus to requirements. Hard to say "see, no food shortages, I was right" when circumstances have swung massively so that there is now a surplus.
Still, if that line of defence is to make you better after last night, feel free.
You can see the impact on trade both in our comparative economic performance with the EU and with the significant fall in trade with our neighbours
I can't see how anyone can pull together a 2024 Brexit coalition from the ashes of the burnt promises of Boris's Oven-ready Brexit deal.
This is the key, and also why the Brexiteers keep saying Brexit is over.
What they mean is "Please, please, please stop talking about Brexit in case anyone actually looks at what a steaming pile of crap it is"
None of my identified 3 groups are happy. The Singaporers have got MORE taxes not less, the Msercantilers have more cost and faff than ever, and the Workers Collective have less money than they had before. Even then "jam tomorrow" dog whistles like "we'll get rid of the ECJ" are falling apart because no we won't.
Whats left? Yosemite?
Your Workers Collective have full employment and higher wages.
They also see new houses being built which will be bought by themselves or their kids.
So why do so many of them feel worse off? A few truckers being paid more isn't the entire working class - little has improved for most, inflation is running away and they're about to get slammed by a big tax cut.
And you make the same mistake on houses as Philip does. Red wall Brexiteers voted Tory and independent at both national and local level to STOP these houses being built. They don't want them. Roads are congested, schools and hospitals are full. They don't need more people. So they vote for the candidates - Tories and independents - who say they will stop the people responsible - Labour.
I live in the Red Wall and have never heard complaints about more houses being built.
In mining areas, at least, new developments, whether they are housing or industrial, are a sign of increasing prosperity and are welcomed.
As for pay rises there's plenty of them in manufacturing and construction currently - maybe different in the public sector and some services.
The red wall isn't uniform of course. My old parts of the red wall (on both the Lancashire and Yorkshire sides) are very very anti-new houses. Being associated with giving planning permission has been a political death sentence for various councillors I can think of. Tory leaflets campaign against Labour building houses everywhere.
There are pay rises where there is a shortage of labour. But as they are rapidly feeding through into inflation the people who haven't had 35% rises - and thats most people - just wonder why they're worse off. And then the tax rises kick in next April.
Inflation is 5% not 35%.
And I suspect for many people they would rather have a 5% pay rise and 5% inflation than a 1% pay rise and 1% inflation.
In any case lots of people are doing pretty nicely currently and they tend to be working class.
Its that aspect which annoys many middle class people.
Lot of excitement on here about BJ going but the Tories are not going to be rushed into getting rid of him until there is a credible alternative. So this is not the end for BJ but it probably is the beginning of the end.
I also wouldn’t be backing Rishi as next PM, some of the shine seems to be coming off. I’m still not convinced also that many MPs who select the final two think that Truss is a winner.
If I was to be looking for next leader, I’d be looking to the ranks of the rebels, preferably with a RW leaning.
Really? You’ve always struck me as a left leaning centrist
Axe the buffoon now. In both the national and party interest there is no alternative if further damage is to be avoided.
Pussyfooting around and not throwing May overboard after her 2017 election debacle was a foolish mistake, and the PCP should finally learn how to take on board the lessons of recent times. They failed to do this when they opted for the clown when they had the perfect example of Corbyn, and if they waste time instead of bringing the hammer down on the fool's career now then they will simply repeat the mistake of 2017.
In a few months cold feet and other factors might make it so that the PM's career survives. And then there's a year long wait, which is mid-2023, at the earliest.
Stop pussyfooting around, Conservative MPs. For the sake of your own careers, your own party, *and* the country, show some ruthlessness and be rid of this incompetent.
I don't think we need to worry about cold feet. What respite is there coming for Peppa? The Standards Commissioner is about to dig deep into flatgate, there are more bunga bunga party revelations coming, the scientists are now openly contradicting him in press conferences as Omicron demolishes people and businesses, investigations into PPE are pending, same with the handling of the pandemic. And for the mouth-foamers we can't stop migrants and we're caving into our own agreement/the EU over NI and the ECJ. And then that massive tax rise kicks in.
Where does this get any easier for him?
The position is objectively difficult for any PM, actually, especially a Conservative one - yes, many of us wouldn't have started from here, and we wouldn't be making the same unforced errors, but the pandemic plus the contradictions of hard Brexit plus the intractability of the refugee issue would make it difficult for any Tory PM. A subtle danger for the Tories is that they conclude the problem is Johnson, rush to replace him with, say, Truss, and find that she sinks in the same way. They can't credibly change leaders twice in one Parliament.
Yup. Also it's too early for a honeymoon election for the new guy. Objectively it doesn't seem sensible to kick the leader out after 2 years; It has to be better to keep them until late in year 3 or early in year 4, then if the voters seem receptive they can call an election right away, and if it still looks bad they have another year to reorient and see if they can find a new path that the voters like.
Interesting result, which I got wrong. Some wait and see is required, but overall it increases the chance of the centre left majority in the electorate operating efficiently enough to win.
Part of the 'wait and see' is that the chance of Boris being leader at the next GE is much smaller, and so the area of known unknowns is increased.
A Tory problem is: can they win from the more populist right (again). If the answer is not, then One Nation leadership from the overcrowded centre is the better option - bit it is a risk.
Apart from Brexit Boris is not governing from the right but from the centre. It was Partygate which cost him last night not being too right-wing, indeed he needed Labour votes to get vaxports through and is spending more than any Tory PM since Macmillan
You mean he is a spendthrift, young HY? I am sure you are right. He just enjoys wasting other people's money.
Interesting result, which I got wrong. Some wait and see is required, but overall it increases the chance of the centre left majority in the electorate operating efficiently enough to win.
Part of the 'wait and see' is that the chance of Boris being leader at the next GE is much smaller, and so the area of known unknowns is increased.
A Tory problem is: can they win from the more populist right (again). If the answer is not, then One Nation leadership from the overcrowded centre is the better option - bit it is a risk.
Apart from Brexit Boris is not governing from the right but from the centre. It was Partygate which cost him last night not being too right-wing, indeed he needed Labour votes to get vaxports through and is spending more than any Tory PM since Macmillan
It's whatever the opposite of triangulation might be - a cunning strategy carefully designed to include something to upset pretty much anyone. On top of which there is his behaviour.
I can't see how anyone can pull together a 2024 Brexit coalition from the ashes of the burnt promises of Boris's Oven-ready Brexit deal.
This is the key, and also why the Brexiteers keep saying Brexit is over.
What they mean is "Please, please, please stop talking about Brexit in case anyone actually looks at what a steaming pile of crap it is"
None of my identified 3 groups are happy. The Singaporers have got MORE taxes not less, the Msercantilers have more cost and faff than ever, and the Workers Collective have less money than they had before. Even then "jam tomorrow" dog whistles like "we'll get rid of the ECJ" are falling apart because no we won't.
Whats left? Yosemite?
Your Workers Collective have full employment and higher wages.
They also see new houses being built which will be bought by themselves or their kids.
So why do so many of them feel worse off? A few truckers being paid more isn't the entire working class - little has improved for most, inflation is running away and they're about to get slammed by a big tax cut.
And you make the same mistake on houses as Philip does. Red wall Brexiteers voted Tory and independent at both national and local level to STOP these houses being built. They don't want them. Roads are congested, schools and hospitals are full. They don't need more people. So they vote for the candidates - Tories and independents - who say they will stop the people responsible - Labour.
I live in the Red Wall and have never heard complaints about more houses being built.
In mining areas, at least, new developments, whether they are housing or industrial, are a sign of increasing prosperity and are welcomed.
As for pay rises there's plenty of them in manufacturing and construction currently - maybe different in the public sector and some services.
The red wall isn't uniform of course. My old parts of the red wall (on both the Lancashire and Yorkshire sides) are very very anti-new houses. Being associated with giving planning permission has been a political death sentence for various councillors I can think of. Tory leaflets campaign against Labour building houses everywhere.
There are pay rises where there is a shortage of labour. But as they are rapidly feeding through into inflation the people who haven't had 35% rises - and thats most people - just wonder why they're worse off. And then the tax rises kick in next April.
Inflation is 5% not 35%.
And I suspect for many people they would rather have a 5% pay rise and 5% inflation than a 1% pay rise and 1% inflation.
In any case lots of people are doing pretty nicely currently and they tend to be working class.
Its that aspect which annoys many middle class people.
Lot of excitement on here about BJ going but the Tories are not going to be rushed into getting rid of him until there is a credible alternative. So this is not the end for BJ but it probably is the beginning of the end.
I also wouldn’t be backing Rishi as next PM, some of the shine seems to be coming off. I’m still not convinced also that many MPs who select the final two think that Truss is a winner.
If I was to be looking for next leader, I’d be looking to the ranks of the rebels, preferably with a RW leaning.
Yes, problem is at the moment if Steve Baker got through to the membership, say v Rishi, he might even win
I can't see how anyone can pull together a 2024 Brexit coalition from the ashes of the burnt promises of Boris's Oven-ready Brexit deal.
This is the key, and also why the Brexiteers keep saying Brexit is over.
What they mean is "Please, please, please stop talking about Brexit in case anyone actually looks at what a steaming pile of crap it is"
None of my identified 3 groups are happy. The Singaporers have got MORE taxes not less, the Msercantilers have more cost and faff than ever, and the Workers Collective have less money than they had before. Even then "jam tomorrow" dog whistles like "we'll get rid of the ECJ" are falling apart because no we won't.
Whats left? Yosemite?
Your Workers Collective have full employment and higher wages.
They also see new houses being built which will be bought by themselves or their kids.
So why do so many of them feel worse off? A few truckers being paid more isn't the entire working class - little has improved for most, inflation is running away and they're about to get slammed by a big tax cut.
And you make the same mistake on houses as Philip does. Red wall Brexiteers voted Tory and independent at both national and local level to STOP these houses being built. They don't want them. Roads are congested, schools and hospitals are full. They don't need more people. So they vote for the candidates - Tories and independents - who say they will stop the people responsible - Labour.
I live in the Red Wall and have never heard complaints about more houses being built.
In mining areas, at least, new developments, whether they are housing or industrial, are a sign of increasing prosperity and are welcomed.
As for pay rises there's plenty of them in manufacturing and construction currently - maybe different in the public sector and some services.
The red wall isn't uniform of course. My old parts of the red wall (on both the Lancashire and Yorkshire sides) are very very anti-new houses. Being associated with giving planning permission has been a political death sentence for various councillors I can think of. Tory leaflets campaign against Labour building houses everywhere.
There are pay rises where there is a shortage of labour. But as they are rapidly feeding through into inflation the people who haven't had 35% rises - and thats most people - just wonder why they're worse off. And then the tax rises kick in next April.
Inflation is 5% not 35%.
And I suspect for many people they would rather have a 5% pay rise and 5% inflation than a 1% pay rise and 1% inflation.
In any case lots of people are doing pretty nicely currently and they tend to be working class.
Its that aspect which annoys many middle class people.
Golly, you think pay is always in perfect lockstep with inflation? Can I guess that you are well under 50?
I can't see how anyone can pull together a 2024 Brexit coalition from the ashes of the burnt promises of Boris's Oven-ready Brexit deal.
This is the key, and also why the Brexiteers keep saying Brexit is over.
What they mean is "Please, please, please stop talking about Brexit in case anyone actually looks at what a steaming pile of crap it is"
None of my identified 3 groups are happy. The Singaporers have got MORE taxes not less, the Msercantilers have more cost and faff than ever, and the Workers Collective have less money than they had before. Even then "jam tomorrow" dog whistles like "we'll get rid of the ECJ" are falling apart because no we won't.
Whats left? Yosemite?
Your Workers Collective have full employment and higher wages.
They also see new houses being built which will be bought by themselves or their kids.
So why do so many of them feel worse off? A few truckers being paid more isn't the entire working class - little has improved for most, inflation is running away and they're about to get slammed by a big tax cut.
And you make the same mistake on houses as Philip does. Red wall Brexiteers voted Tory and independent at both national and local level to STOP these houses being built. They don't want them. Roads are congested, schools and hospitals are full. They don't need more people. So they vote for the candidates - Tories and independents - who say they will stop the people responsible - Labour.
I live in the Red Wall and have never heard complaints about more houses being built.
In mining areas, at least, new developments, whether they are housing or industrial, are a sign of increasing prosperity and are welcomed.
As for pay rises there's plenty of them in manufacturing and construction currently - maybe different in the public sector and some services.
The red wall isn't uniform of course. My old parts of the red wall (on both the Lancashire and Yorkshire sides) are very very anti-new houses. Being associated with giving planning permission has been a political death sentence for various councillors I can think of. Tory leaflets campaign against Labour building houses everywhere.
There are pay rises where there is a shortage of labour. But as they are rapidly feeding through into inflation the people who haven't had 35% rises - and thats most people - just wonder why they're worse off. And then the tax rises kick in next April.
Inflation is 5% not 35%.
And I suspect for many people they would rather have a 5% pay rise and 5% inflation than a 1% pay rise and 1% inflation.
In any case lots of people are doing pretty nicely currently and they tend to be working class.
Its that aspect which annoys many middle class people.
I can't see how anyone can pull together a 2024 Brexit coalition from the ashes of the burnt promises of Boris's Oven-ready Brexit deal.
This is the key, and also why the Brexiteers keep saying Brexit is over.
What they mean is "Please, please, please stop talking about Brexit in case anyone actually looks at what a steaming pile of crap it is"
None of my identified 3 groups are happy. The Singaporers have got MORE taxes not less, the Msercantilers have more cost and faff than ever, and the Workers Collective have less money than they had before. Even then "jam tomorrow" dog whistles like "we'll get rid of the ECJ" are falling apart because no we won't.
Whats left? Yosemite?
Your Workers Collective have full employment and higher wages.
They also see new houses being built which will be bought by themselves or their kids.
So why do so many of them feel worse off? A few truckers being paid more isn't the entire working class - little has improved for most, inflation is running away and they're about to get slammed by a big tax cut.
And you make the same mistake on houses as Philip does. Red wall Brexiteers voted Tory and independent at both national and local level to STOP these houses being built. They don't want them. Roads are congested, schools and hospitals are full. They don't need more people. So they vote for the candidates - Tories and independents - who say they will stop the people responsible - Labour.
I live in the Red Wall and have never heard complaints about more houses being built.
In mining areas, at least, new developments, whether they are housing or industrial, are a sign of increasing prosperity and are welcomed.
As for pay rises there's plenty of them in manufacturing and construction currently - maybe different in the public sector and some services.
The red wall isn't uniform of course. My old parts of the red wall (on both the Lancashire and Yorkshire sides) are very very anti-new houses. Being associated with giving planning permission has been a political death sentence for various councillors I can think of. Tory leaflets campaign against Labour building houses everywhere.
There are pay rises where there is a shortage of labour. But as they are rapidly feeding through into inflation the people who haven't had 35% rises - and thats most people - just wonder why they're worse off. And then the tax rises kick in next April.
Inflation is 5% not 35%.
And I suspect for many people they would rather have a 5% pay rise and 5% inflation than a 1% pay rise and 1% inflation.
In any case lots of people are doing pretty nicely currently and they tend to be working class.
Its that aspect which annoys many middle class people.
Inflation is 5% before the forthcoming energy bill increase (that's going to make it 10% minimum given the size of the increases arriving in April).
You also have a 1.25% tax increase for Social care
And a hidden 1.25% employer tax increase. So that 5% payrise (which is big) is going to be 3.75% after HMRC took their cut.
Council tax is also going to be going up 5% minimum...
Come May a lot of people are going to be looking at their payslip going - not sure how we get through the month.
Lot of excitement on here about BJ going but the Tories are not going to be rushed into getting rid of him until there is a credible alternative. So this is not the end for BJ but it probably is the beginning of the end.
I also wouldn’t be backing Rishi as next PM, some of the shine seems to be coming off. I’m still not convinced also that many MPs who select the final two think that Truss is a winner.
If I was to be looking for next leader, I’d be looking to the ranks of the rebels, preferably with a RW leaning.
Problem is at the moment if Steve Baker got through to the membership, say v Rishi, he might even win
Campaign to get Steve Baker into the final two begins now....
I can't see how anyone can pull together a 2024 Brexit coalition from the ashes of the burnt promises of Boris's Oven-ready Brexit deal.
This is the key, and also why the Brexiteers keep saying Brexit is over.
What they mean is "Please, please, please stop talking about Brexit in case anyone actually looks at what a steaming pile of crap it is"
None of my identified 3 groups are happy. The Singaporers have got MORE taxes not less, the Msercantilers have more cost and faff than ever, and the Workers Collective have less money than they had before. Even then "jam tomorrow" dog whistles like "we'll get rid of the ECJ" are falling apart because no we won't.
Whats left? Yosemite?
Your Workers Collective have full employment and higher wages.
They also see new houses being built which will be bought by themselves or their kids.
So why do so many of them feel worse off? A few truckers being paid more isn't the entire working class - little has improved for most, inflation is running away and they're about to get slammed by a big tax cut.
And you make the same mistake on houses as Philip does. Red wall Brexiteers voted Tory and independent at both national and local level to STOP these houses being built. They don't want them. Roads are congested, schools and hospitals are full. They don't need more people. So they vote for the candidates - Tories and independents - who say they will stop the people responsible - Labour.
I live in the Red Wall and have never heard complaints about more houses being built.
In mining areas, at least, new developments, whether they are housing or industrial, are a sign of increasing prosperity and are welcomed.
As for pay rises there's plenty of them in manufacturing and construction currently - maybe different in the public sector and some services.
From my perspective, a stone's throw from the site of Kellingley, the last deep mine to close, prime Red Wall territory, and where houses are being thrown up with alacrity, I would broadly agree. There's some grumbling about roads, schools, doctors, the usual but I think most are pleased to see some regeneration.
I think Yvette Cooper had a bit of a scare here at the last GE due to Brexit and Corbyn. Corbyn's gone and Brexit isn't really pleasing anyone, so I think the Tory vote will recede to its usual levels, maybe a bit higher perhaps but nothing to scare the horses, here and in similar areas. I don't think people will vote Tory here because they're disgusted by housing going up on brownfield sites.
Could we get a left field candidate in Southend West now, rather than just the assortment of far right fruit loops that contested 2016 Batley & Spen?
very random example scenario: Rory Stewart, Independent for Public Service. "I knew David and though we disagreed on many things he represented the best of a public service spirit that should drive MPs. This government has lost the plot on that public service aim and the message needs to be sent again that that is not good enough. it does not sit with the kind of person David Amess was and does not honour his memory".
I can't see how anyone can pull together a 2024 Brexit coalition from the ashes of the burnt promises of Boris's Oven-ready Brexit deal.
This is the key, and also why the Brexiteers keep saying Brexit is over.
What they mean is "Please, please, please stop talking about Brexit in case anyone actually looks at what a steaming pile of crap it is"
What happened to your predictions of mass unemployment and empty supermarkets ?
All the Eastern Europeans went home so the opposite occurred and fruit and vegetables are rotting in the fields.
Empty supermarket shelves, what empty supermarket shelves? The supermarkets after seeing what empty shelves looked like have done a sterling job of double, triple and quadruple facing products to mask shortages. M&S and Waitrose Christmas "click and collect" products were sold out weeks and weeks ago.
People are noticing things aren't what they were, and however much you protest everything is fine and dandy they won't believe you as a Conservative apologist. The people of N. Shropshire didn't believe Conservative apologists.
So if the fruit and vegetables are rotting in the fields why are the supermarkets filled with fruit and vegetables displaying union jacks ?
Likewise the meat aisles.
Deal with reality.
And the reality is that supermarkets are full.
The people who have worked flat out to give the impression that "you can do your shop here" will be reassured that there was no crisis for them to work flat out to fix.
The problem now is a surplus of food. An awful lot of catering packs are surplus to requirements. Hard to say "see, no food shortages, I was right" when circumstances have swung massively so that there is now a surplus.
Still, if that line of defence is to make you better after last night, feel free.
You can see the impact on trade both in our comparative economic performance with the EU and with the significant fall in trade with our neighbours
I can't see how anyone can pull together a 2024 Brexit coalition from the ashes of the burnt promises of Boris's Oven-ready Brexit deal.
This is the key, and also why the Brexiteers keep saying Brexit is over.
What they mean is "Please, please, please stop talking about Brexit in case anyone actually looks at what a steaming pile of crap it is"
None of my identified 3 groups are happy. The Singaporers have got MORE taxes not less, the Msercantilers have more cost and faff than ever, and the Workers Collective have less money than they had before. Even then "jam tomorrow" dog whistles like "we'll get rid of the ECJ" are falling apart because no we won't.
Whats left? Yosemite?
Your Workers Collective have full employment and higher wages.
They also see new houses being built which will be bought by themselves or their kids.
So why do so many of them feel worse off? A few truckers being paid more isn't the entire working class - little has improved for most, inflation is running away and they're about to get slammed by a big tax cut.
And you make the same mistake on houses as Philip does. Red wall Brexiteers voted Tory and independent at both national and local level to STOP these houses being built. They don't want them. Roads are congested, schools and hospitals are full. They don't need more people. So they vote for the candidates - Tories and independents - who say they will stop the people responsible - Labour.
I live in the Red Wall and have never heard complaints about more houses being built.
In mining areas, at least, new developments, whether they are housing or industrial, are a sign of increasing prosperity and are welcomed.
As for pay rises there's plenty of them in manufacturing and construction currently - maybe different in the public sector and some services.
The red wall isn't uniform of course. My old parts of the red wall (on both the Lancashire and Yorkshire sides) are very very anti-new houses. Being associated with giving planning permission has been a political death sentence for various councillors I can think of. Tory leaflets campaign against Labour building houses everywhere.
There are pay rises where there is a shortage of labour. But as they are rapidly feeding through into inflation the people who haven't had 35% rises - and thats most people - just wonder why they're worse off. And then the tax rises kick in next April.
I suspect for many people they would rather have a 5% pay rise and 5% inflation than a 1% pay rise and 1% inflation.
Tom Peck @tompeck · 1h I suppose what is actually historic is that it’s not merely Boris Johnson’s fault they lost the by-election, it’s also his fault they even had it.
This and this again. This was an entirely unforced error. The only reason we are discussing this at all this morning was a dinner at the Reform Club where he was persuaded to try and save Paterson. That shows a complete lack of political judgment that should worry Tories more than anything else. He has just pissed huge amount of political capital up the wall for nothing.
That's what's so stupid about it all. Had he simply let Paterson take his punishment, this would never have happened.
Nearly 22 hours since I got my booster - Pfizer - and apart from a tiny bit of soreness where I was jabbed I feel fine. Long may it continue!
Meant to be having mine this evening - then straight out running Saturday morning. And Sunday morning as well. Fingers crossed...
Fingers crossed for you too. But don't overdo it.
I had my Pfizer yesterday morning. I've just come back from a seven-mile run, and am in bed feeling dizzy and a bit nauseous. And my harm hurts like *******.
But at least I've got today's run over with, and the little 'un's going to school so I can just sleep.
Good man.
I had both my AZ's without suffering any side effects at all, but I'm not taking anything for granted.
Certainly if I do end up feeling like death warmed over I'll be staying home for the weekend. Won't be any use for cross country if I'm vax zonked. I run with all the elegance and vitesse of a tortoise wading through treacle at the best of times.
Wow! As speedy as a tortoise wading through treacle! I'm at the sloth crossing a busy motorway stage. At least, that's how I feel at the moment. Rather flat ...
I'm actually a really slow runner, but I do seem able to maintain regular reasonable distances. And I am nearly fifty, so I can always blame age.
(Although it's rather embarrassing when I get overtaken by an evidently much older man...)
I’m also of the slow runner clan. For many reasons I just don’t seem able to run that fast, even at my fittest. Resting heart rate low fifties, but carrying too much weight. Best 5k time 26 minutes, best 10k 55 min. But a few years ago happy to churn out (slow) half marathons. I find you exploits inspiring. Do you never get injured?
Thanks for that.
Your times are about my best as well. My neighbour - over ten years younger than me - can do a 10k in 40 minutes. We never run together. I also never do official runs - I think if I did I'd get carried along, and might manage a sub 50-min 10K. That's my target.
As for injury: I got a minor niggle a couple of years ago, but this year I've had no real issues. I think only one blister as well. My guess is that I've been lucky, and the fact I used to be a long-distance walker means my feet and legs are used to regular exercise. I'm terrified of my ankle injury coming back, but so far - fingers crossed - it's been fine.
If anything, I have fewer injuries whilst going through one of my manic walking or running phases: if I don't do too much for a month, then I start getting back and other pains from lounging around ...
Thats very interesting. My wife has completed over 20 marathons (enough to have lost count). Along the way we became aware of the 100 marathon club, essentially nutters who do marathons all the time. Most people who do an odd marathon (bucket list thing, or raise money for a charity) cannot conceive of doing 100+ (and indeed many hundreds of marathons) but these guys don't really 'race' anywhere - they mainly just like plodding round really long runs. I've heard of them doing 4 in a week (sat, sun, wed and sun for instance). I think there is something to be said for conditioning the body to regular exercise like this, as long as it is a steady effort, and that sound very much like what you do. Top work!
Thanks. I'm considering (no more than that) doing a Marathon distance to complete this insanity on Jan 1st or 2nd. It'll probably depend on weather, covid etc. I've never run that far before (have walked it many times, though).
A few years back, Mrs J was running the Grand Union Canal half marathon. I waited near the end and started chatting with a gentleman whose wife was running. She had just retired at 52, and was doing 52 half-marathons in the year - all official ones. She was trying to do one a week, and they were driving all over the country to get to them. Apparently it was hard to find scheduled ones during November and December, so they were thinking of going abroad for a few as well.
Boris was successfully all things to all possible voters at the last leadership election.
With Boris not standing MPs (and members) need to decide on what direction the party takes going forward which will make the decision especially difficult.
Lot of excitement on here about BJ going but the Tories are not going to be rushed into getting rid of him until there is a credible alternative. So this is not the end for BJ but it probably is the beginning of the end.
I also wouldn’t be backing Rishi as next PM, some of the shine seems to be coming off. I’m still not convinced also that many MPs who select the final two think that Truss is a winner.
If I was to be looking for next leader, I’d be looking to the ranks of the rebels, preferably with a RW leaning.
Yes, problem is at the moment if Steve Baker got through to the membership, say v Rishi, he might even win
Cons’ Corbyn moment? That would be grimly entertaining, if anyone hasn’t had enough grim entertainment recently.
Lot of excitement on here about BJ going but the Tories are not going to be rushed into getting rid of him until there is a credible alternative. So this is not the end for BJ but it probably is the beginning of the end.
I also wouldn’t be backing Rishi as next PM, some of the shine seems to be coming off. I’m still not convinced also that many MPs who select the final two think that Truss is a winner.
If I was to be looking for next leader, I’d be looking to the ranks of the rebels, preferably with a RW leaning.
Yes, problem is at the moment if Steve Baker got through to the membership, say v Rishi, he might even win
Could we get a left field candidate in Southend West now, rather than just the assortment of far right fruit loops that contested 2016 Batley & Spen?
very random example scenario: Rory Stewart, Independent for Public Service. "I knew David and though we disagreed on many things he represented the best of a public service spirit that should drive MPs. This government has lost the plot on that public service aim and the message needs to be sent again that that is not good enough. it does not sit with the kind of person David Amess was and does not honour his memory".
I don’t think so. The circumstances are still too raw.
Axe the buffoon now. In both the national and party interest there is no alternative if further damage is to be avoided.
Pussyfooting around and not throwing May overboard after her 2017 election debacle was a foolish mistake, and the PCP should finally learn how to take on board the lessons of recent times. They failed to do this when they opted for the clown when they had the perfect example of Corbyn, and if they waste time instead of bringing the hammer down on the fool's career now then they will simply repeat the mistake of 2017.
In a few months cold feet and other factors might make it so that the PM's career survives. And then there's a year long wait, which is mid-2023, at the earliest.
Stop pussyfooting around, Conservative MPs. For the sake of your own careers, your own party, *and* the country, show some ruthlessness and be rid of this incompetent.
I don't think we need to worry about cold feet. What respite is there coming for Peppa? The Standards Commissioner is about to dig deep into flatgate, there are more bunga bunga party revelations coming, the scientists are now openly contradicting him in press conferences as Omicron demolishes people and businesses, investigations into PPE are pending, same with the handling of the pandemic. And for the mouth-foamers we can't stop migrants and we're caving into our own agreement/the EU over NI and the ECJ. And then that massive tax rise kicks in.
Where does this get any easier for him?
The position is objectively difficult for any PM, actually, especially a Conservative one - yes, many of us wouldn't have started from here, and we wouldn't be making the same unforced errors, but the pandemic plus the contradictions of hard Brexit plus the intractability of the refugee issue would make it difficult for any Tory PM. A subtle danger for the Tories is that they conclude the problem is Johnson, rush to replace him with, say, Truss, and find that she sinks in the same way. They can't credibly change leaders twice in one Parliament.
Yup. Also it's too early for a honeymoon election for the new guy. Objectively it doesn't seem sensible to kick the leader out after 2 years; It has to be better to keep them until late in year 3 or early in year 4, then if the voters seem receptive they can call an election right away, and if it still looks bad they have another year to reorient and see if they can find a new path that the voters like.
It's why I see Boris leaving in late 2022 with an election in late 2023 (can't be May 2023 as old boundaries and not enough time for tax cuts to be felt).
Comments
And you make the same mistake on houses as Philip does. Red wall Brexiteers voted Tory and independent at both national and local level to STOP these houses being built. They don't want them. Roads are congested, schools and hospitals are full. They don't need more people. So they vote for the candidates - Tories and independents - who say they will stop the people responsible - Labour.
Part of the 'wait and see' is that the chance of Boris being leader at the next GE is much smaller, and so the area of known unknowns is increased.
A Tory problem is: can they win from the more populist right (again). If the answer is not, then One Nation leadership from the overcrowded centre is the better option - bit it is a risk.
Re the Labour performance, it doesn’t really tell us much. Lib Dems are often the protest vote in safer seats because it’s easier for a lot of otherwise die-hard Tory (or back in the Blair Brown years, Labour) voters to switch to them more comfortably as a protest. We would need a by election in a Lab-Tory marginal to assess how things are going in those seats - though I suspect not good for the blues at the moment.
He's lucky that Thanet North Conservatives haven't bothered to count the number of strikes he's had.
I am delighted that 2019 Tory voters are backing the LDs and Labour. You’ve got a fight on your hands. Just as it should be.
One of the most consistently underestimated themes for this UK government is the extent to which they want to be the closest possible partners of the US, and their disappointment that this is not happening. Entire swathes of Brexit and trade policy are dominated by this.
https://twitter.com/DavidHenigUK/status/1471758188534190080?s=20
If the public have tired of the end of the pier act then they need to make sure they throw a load of Tory councillors out in May and the 1922 will do the rest.
https://twitter.com/alexmassie/status/1471762899395829761
The food industry is facing its worst crisis since April 2020 - vast amounts of food that nobody wants. We've gone from "we can't make high labour hours fancy stuff as we can't get the workers" to "reduce the number of products to eek the most units out of the capacity we have" to "everyone is cancelling Christmas parties, anyone want to buy a 1kg bag of pigs in blankets".
And then on New Years Day we finally implement the much-delayed import protocols we insisted on. As we still don't have sufficient capacity of people / parking / computer system to cope it will be an interesting rise for the Mercantilists.
https://twitter.com/tom_nuttall/status/1471761470861963264?s=20
"Is that all" is how I described it in my post above. No EU trade deal and no US trade deal leaves the UK pretty isolated.
And, as we have seen with the NI/ECJ cave, vulnerable to the oppo's demands.
The PM himself has also said he expects it to find no rules were broken
All of which puts Simon Case in a very difficult position
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1471764188733362177
In mining areas, at least, new developments, whether they are housing or industrial, are a sign of increasing prosperity and are welcomed.
As for pay rises there's plenty of them in manufacturing and construction currently - maybe different in the public sector and some services.
Empty supermarket shelves, what empty supermarket shelves? The supermarkets after seeing what empty shelves looked like have done a sterling job of double, triple and quadruple facing products to mask shortages. M&S and Waitrose Christmas "click and collect" products were sold out weeks and weeks ago.
People are noticing things aren't what they were, and however much you protest everything is fine and dandy they won't believe you as a Conservative apologist. The people of N. Shropshire didn't believe Conservative apologists.
The tragedy of Brexit is that we're drowning ourselves in cost and red tape to keep doing the exact same thing we were doing before. Even quitting CAP/CFP hasn't benefitted the food sector as the cost and complexity of import / export now outweighs the previous complexities.
The point is not his credibility, or that of any of his fellow MPs - simply that they are the ones who will, in the first instance, decide Boris' future.
Liz’s Tories. Oh oh.
We shall see. NS puts blue wall Tories in the yellow crosshairs as much as red wallers as in the red crosshairs. A second front may open up...
Labour cannot win on their own - as Corby demonstrated. And a Labour leader in the Corbyn pattern would never get support from the LibDems.
I'm sure you'll regard that as a good thing, but it's also what ensured he would never be in government.
As to North Shropshire, it's hard to see the result as undeserved.
Likewise the meat aisles.
Deal with reality.
And the reality is that supermarkets are full.
A long way to go still, and the position is still recoverable.
https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1471765864143896577
https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1471757640296452103
Now, two years on (and what a couple of years - no-one could have foreseen covid, or that we would still be grappling with it now after a year of mass vaccination), the shine has come off the turd that is Johnson and the public sees him as he really is. He doesn't give a shit about you and I, the only thing that matters is him being world king and sticking his member into as many blondes as he can. If he stays as leader of the Tories I think they could well be utterly smashed, except it won't quite be 1997 - Scotland will have vast hordes of SNP, and in RUK there will not be enough Labour seats for a majority, so it will inevitably be a coalition or C&S.
Can the Tories prevent this? Changing the leader is fine, but recent times have shown that too many Tory MP's really haven't changed - they are still the venal, grasping wankers we've always seen. Whenever they are in power too long the shit rises to the top.
Change the leader, and possibly the Tories might cling on, assuming covid is well on its way to being less serious (not impossible). Is there a charismatic, young Tory who could re-invigorate the party while in power? Or do they need once again to get kicked out to go and have a real hard think about things again...
And hopefully will act as a spur to an improvement in government conduct.
Likely a forlorn hope.
If this current mob are still in charge by 2024 I can see them praying for the return of Trump.
There are pay rises where there is a shortage of labour. But as they are rapidly feeding through into inflation the people who haven't had 35% rises - and thats most people - just wonder why they're worse off. And then the tax rises kick in next April.
There's no shortage of houses being built.
Which is very different from the situation 10 years ago.
I'd say that they are in real stuck if some strategic levelling up does not happen that can be seen and felt by each household.
Note: a 22% drop in turnout compared to the GE with Tory voters both switching to LD and sitting on their hands.
A reminder to govt not to take the electorate for granted. But Helen Morgan unlikely to hold on at a general election.
The problem now is a surplus of food. An awful lot of catering packs are surplus to requirements. Hard to say "see, no food shortages, I was right" when circumstances have swung massively so that there is now a surplus.
Still, if that line of defence is to make you better after last night, feel free.
I think what this has done has made a leadership challenge next year all the more likely if Boris malaise continues. I don’t think it will trigger an immediate call for him to go.
I also wouldn’t be backing Rishi as next PM, some of the shine seems to be coming off. I’m still not convinced also that many MPs who select the final two think that Truss is a winner.
If I was to be looking for next leader, I’d be looking to the ranks of the rebels, preferably with a RW leaning.
And I suspect for many people they would rather have a 5% pay rise and 5% inflation than a 1% pay rise and 1% inflation.
In any case lots of people are doing pretty nicely currently and they tend to be working class.
Its that aspect which annoys many middle class people.
And so my landslide prediction came to pass and many congratulations to a spectacular Lib Dem win
I never had any doubt this would happen and I am very relaxed this morning as this must herald Boris replacement sooner rather than later
But who is there, and what concrete things do they do, that turn this around for the government?
A fresh face and a bit of coherence are necessary, but I'm not sure they are sufficient.
You also have a 1.25% tax increase for Social care
And a hidden 1.25% employer tax increase. So that 5% payrise (which is big) is going to be 3.75% after HMRC took their cut.
Council tax is also going to be going up 5% minimum...
Come May a lot of people are going to be looking at their payslip going - not sure how we get through the month.
I think Yvette Cooper had a bit of a scare here at the last GE due to Brexit and Corbyn. Corbyn's gone and Brexit isn't really pleasing anyone, so I think the Tory vote will recede to its usual levels, maybe a bit higher perhaps but nothing to scare the horses, here and in similar areas. I don't think people will vote Tory here because they're disgusted by housing going up on brownfield sites.
very random example scenario:
Rory Stewart, Independent for Public Service. "I knew David and though we disagreed on many things he represented the best of a public service spirit that should drive MPs. This government has lost the plot on that public service aim and the message needs to be sent again that that is not good enough. it does not sit with the kind of person David Amess was and does not honour his memory".
A few years back, Mrs J was running the Grand Union Canal half marathon. I waited near the end and started chatting with a gentleman whose wife was running. She had just retired at 52, and was doing 52 half-marathons in the year - all official ones. She was trying to do one a week, and they were driving all over the country to get to them. Apparently it was hard to find scheduled ones during November and December, so they were thinking of going abroad for a few as well.
I really admire that sort of insanity.
edit: and congrats to your wife as well!
Boris was successfully all things to all possible voters at the last leadership election.
With Boris not standing MPs (and members) need to decide on what direction the party takes going forward which will make the decision especially difficult.
That would be grimly entertaining, if anyone hasn’t had enough grim entertainment recently.
Report from late November 21st:
https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-commission-food-shortage-energy-price-surge/
And another one from Nov 24th:
https://www.thegrocer.co.uk/technology-and-supply-chain/hgv-driver-shortage-eases-as-hauliers-return-to-workforce/662181.article
(German wholesale prices are a stat to watch at present.)