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As we await the formal result the latest betting – politicalbetting.com

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Comments

  • Well I got that one wrong.

    I thought it would be a Con hold, though maybe not by much.

    Boris gone? Not sure it will happen in a hurry but it has to be before the next election or they could be reduced to a handful of seats.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,502
    Betfair is still accepting bets on the by-election result.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.190523448
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,280
    Good lord. That swing number is humongous.

    Not even close.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,049
    edited December 2021
    ping said:

    ping said:

    LDs now unbackable

    The yellows have it, the yellows have it

    Unlock!

    Can I say Ping, you helped make it a brilliant night pinging your things.

    Do you have Chinese ancestors too, or related to machine in meaning of life?
    Lol. No. I used to be @Pong but lost my login at some point. So reregistered as @Ping without putting much thought into the name.

    Pong was the name of a character - an awful chef - in a little known, but hilarious book, the ascent of rum doodle.
    Ping Pong is a stone age video game.



    For all I know that could be Smithson on the left.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,273
    IanB2 said:

    Telegraph: Nightmare before Christmas…humiliation for Boris Johnson

    Lib Dem sources told The Telegraph that Boris Johnson’s recent Peppa Pig gaffe, below, which saw him lose his speech notes and appear to speak at random about the animation at a CBI event, had “cut through on the doorstep”, along with the Conservatives plans to make changes to the subsidy payments of farmers.

    You mean all the promises given to farmers pre Brexit were a pack of lies ! I’m shocked ! Might we see a comeback for the Lib Dems in Cornwall .
  • R4 West Midlands political correspondent commenting that Tory candidate spent his time firefighting while LibDems put in enormous effort with lots of activists. Feeling was that traditional Tory seat was being overlooked as others are getting “levelling up”.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,437
    This cant be right. North Shropshire is a Leave seat and the Lib Dems are filthy remoaners.
  • While there is some commentary on “tactical voting” isn’t the bigger picture former Tory voters voting LD? Whether they will continue to do so or return to the Tories is the big unknown for the GE - if Johnson is still leading, then the chances are they may not return.

    The question for me is will enough of the switchers stay switched and will that, combined with any tactical voting, be enough to get the Tories out next time? I hope so but I’m not confident.

    English voters will be subject to scare stories at the next GE of a potential unholy alliance of Lab/LD/SNP. That may work to round up enough potential switchers back to the Blue team.

    But is that enough now to scare the horses? Sturgeon’s had a good pandemic, she has good ratings in England, doesn’t she?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,049
    Well done the Yellow Peril.

    So, has BJ lost the last of his teflon coating?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,040

    While there is some commentary on “tactical voting” isn’t the bigger picture former Tory voters voting LD? Whether they will continue to do so or return to the Tories is the big unknown for the GE - if Johnson is still leading, then the chances are they may not return.

    The swing is so large that you are absolutely correct: a reasonable number of Conservative voters chose to vote LD.

    Now, will they return at the GE? Probably. Well, almost certainly.

    But are they pissed? Pissed that the Government prevaricated on boosters; pissed that the Government said "no parties" while at the same time having parties; pissed that their MP was lobbying for cash (while they struggled); pissed that they face a (probably preventable) lockdown?

    Yes, definitely.

    Who can blame them.

    There are probably other lessons. Brexit is becoming less salient. The LibDems have regained their old "any protest vote in a storm" role. Labour not having a clue about byelections.

    Johnson gone?

    No. Not that.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,502
    The new MP read history at Trinity College, Cambridge.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    This is shocking, I had bought in to the idea that this was blue rosette on a donkey territory.
    The scale of the victory is absolutely stunning. The tory vote has completely collapsed. Unlike C &A, with no oestensible reason this time.
    Suggests that there really are no 'safe' Conservative seats any more. If the LDs can do this despite Brexit, and despite their 'woke' shenanigans; then nowhere is safe. The conservatives can collapse in their heartlands, in the same way as the liberal party collapsed at the start of the last century, and in the same way as Scotland and the red wall collapsed for labour. That should be the lesson from all this.
    Boris can only lead when he has a team of advisors around him with vision and strategy and who are able to manage his parliamentary party. Since Cummings left, that has gone completely. The current set up is a farce and everyone can see straight through it; as revealed by Peppa Pig, Patterson, Downing st parties, vaxports.
    I've come to the assessment that it cannot be corrected, because he seems to have let his wife have too much power. This plus a culture of compliance and fear about speaking truth to power, cannot lead to success in governing a democracy where you can be deposed by either your party or your voters.
    He's become toxic. Either the whole system in No.10 is completely reformed, or he goes next year. That must be how this develops.


  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,943

    Heathener said:

    IanB2 said:

    She’s going to need some public speaking classes

    She is but wouldn't it be lovely if this marked a move away from the kind of "charismatic" bullshit that personifies Boris Johnson? The content of what she said was really good. A local candidate.

    I also really liked her thanks to Labour supporters for lending their votes. Very cool.
    Unwise.
    Why is a generous acknowledgment of what voters did unwise ?
    Makes you sound like Boris.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,340
    Heathener said:

    ydoethur I think you have me confused with someone else. I've never been rude to anyone, except to chide Mr Thompson for urging a cull of the weak.The only reason you thought I was a troll was that I told you back in September that Govt departments were being told to prepare for possible lockdown and another covid wave and I said that this winter would be tough with possibly 100,000 cases a day.

    I think you are one of those people who come on here just to argue with people, which is kind of sad. I don't. I avoid all confrontation and argument because I don't like the male aggression people like you display.

    But for the record, no a comparison of Glasgow with North Shropshire doesn't hold. It's bizarre. And, no, the SNP are not, and were not then, "a minor party".

    Make yourself a cup of tea and take a breather.

    I really don’t think I have.

    It’s entirely possible you don’t realise how you come across, of course. There are other posters who don’t (including me, many times).

    I don’t come on to argue, I come on to inform myself. But as befits a good teacher, I don’t like inaccuracy.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,577
    nico679 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Telegraph: Nightmare before Christmas…humiliation for Boris Johnson

    Lib Dem sources told The Telegraph that Boris Johnson’s recent Peppa Pig gaffe, below, which saw him lose his speech notes and appear to speak at random about the animation at a CBI event, had “cut through on the doorstep”, along with the Conservatives plans to make changes to the subsidy payments of farmers.

    You mean all the promises given to farmers pre Brexit were a pack of lies ! I’m shocked ! Might we see a comeback for the Lib Dems in Cornwall .
    Yes, for a repeat of a Brexit election that fantasy Brexit has to match reality. Not much chance of that as it was multiple fantasy Brexits to different groups.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,340

    This cant be right. North Shropshire is a Leave seat and the Lib Dems are filthy remoaners.

    This also of course effectively puts to bed the leave/remain divide.

    Which is also a very good thing.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,943
    edited December 2021
    .
    darkage said:

    This is shocking, I had bought in to the idea that this was blue rosette on a donkey territory.
    The scale of the victory is absolutely stunning. The tory vote has completely collapsed. Unlike C &A, with no oestensible reason this time.
    Suggests that there really are no 'safe' Conservative seats any more. If the LDs can do this despite Brexit, and despite their 'woke' shenanigans; then nowhere is safe. The conservatives can collapse in their heartlands, in the same way as the liberal party collapsed at the start of the last century, and in the same way as Scotland and the red wall collapsed for labour. That should be the lesson from all this.
    Boris can only lead when he has a team of advisors around him with vision and strategy and who are able to manage his parliamentary party. Since Cummings left, that has gone completely. The current set up is a farce and everyone can see straight through it; as revealed by Peppa Pig, Patterson, Downing st parties, vaxports.
    I've come to the assessment that it cannot be corrected, because he seems to have let his wife have too much power. This plus a culture of compliance and fear about speaking truth to power, cannot lead to success in governing a democracy where you can be deposed by either your party or your voters.
    He's become toxic. Either the whole system in No.10 is completely reformed, or he goes next year. That must be how this develops.

    Given the betting odds in the run up, it’s not exactly shocking.
    Though if your reaction is shared by many Tory MPs, then Johnson is toast, and pronto.
  • Isn’t Johnson the classic “campaign in poetry, govern in prose” politician?

    He’s very good at the former, very poor at the latter - and needs a much stronger team around him to cover his deficiencies.

    Even Thatcher needed a Willie - and had the wit to realise it. Johnson’s “it’ll be alright on the night” has run out of road.

    In the short term he’ll probably survive, but the men in grey suits need to be readying the pearl handled revolver and decanter of whisky.

    If not now, when?

    The man is a disgrace to the office.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,836
    A week ago, the Parkers Arms, a countryside gastropub near Clitheroe in Lancashire, was fully booked for Thursday’s lunchtime sitting. Just 11 out of 50 continued with their bookings after the warnings about socialising, said landlady Stosie Madi, while more than half of weekend bookings are also now cancelled.

    “I’ve had people wanting deposits back and I’ve had to dig my heels in,” she said.

    Madi is far from alone. According to UK Hospitality, which represents pubs, bars, cafés and restaurants, trade is already down by one-third and the industry is expecting a further 22% drop in bookings for December, at a cost of £4bn.

    Business owners like Madi are facing an uncertain future without government support. “We’ve still got a backlog of rent debt, we’ve invested in the food, we’ve got suppliers and staff to pay, astronomical winter costs with heating and energy,” she said.

    Madi criticised the government for issuing advice that has made people wary of socialising but failing to offer businesses financial support to cushion the resulting blow to trade. “I’ve never know such a bunch of cowards, making statements like that, hanging us out to dry and then leaving us crumbling. What on earth do they expect us to do? How many knocks are we supposed to take?”


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/16/annihilated-businesses-hard-hit-by-plan-b-falloff-in-trade-pubs-hair-salons-financial-support-covid

    According to one of the Government's few remaining apologists, "there is no lockdown." So that's OK then. Move along. Nothing to see here.

    Hmmm...
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,404
    edited December 2021

    While there is some commentary on “tactical voting” isn’t the bigger picture former Tory voters voting LD? Whether they will continue to do so or return to the Tories is the big unknown for the GE - if Johnson is still leading, then the chances are they may not return.

    Good morning. And it is somewhat better, cricket and politics wise.
    Couple of thoughts. This somewhat reminds me of Newbury in 1993, where there was a very substantial swing to the LD's, maintained at the next couple of GE's but long gone now.
    Secondly, neither the LD's nor Labour are putting up candidates in Southend West; however, the Greens, AIUI, are. If not a lot changes could we see a big Green vote there? In times past the LD's have sometimes run the Tories reasonably close.

    And I note that the cricket has stopped, ni=ot for lunch or tea, but for dinner. How civilised!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,340
    edited December 2021
    Nigelb said:

    .

    darkage said:

    This is shocking, I had bought in to the idea that this was blue rosette on a donkey territory.
    The scale of the victory is absolutely stunning. The tory vote has completely collapsed. Unlike C &A, with no oestensible reason this time.
    Suggests that there really are no 'safe' Conservative seats any more. If the LDs can do this despite Brexit, and despite their 'woke' shenanigans; then nowhere is safe. The conservatives can collapse in their heartlands, in the same way as the liberal party collapsed at the start of the last century, and in the same way as Scotland and the red wall collapsed for labour. That should be the lesson from all this.
    Boris can only lead when he has a team of advisors around him with vision and strategy and who are able to manage his parliamentary party. Since Cummings left, that has gone completely. The current set up is a farce and everyone can see straight through it; as revealed by Peppa Pig, Patterson, Downing st parties, vaxports.
    I've come to the assessment that it cannot be corrected, because he seems to have let his wife have too much power. This plus a culture of compliance and fear about speaking truth to power, cannot lead to success in governing a democracy where you can be deposed by either your party or your voters.
    He's become toxic. Either the whole system in No.10 is completely reformed, or he goes next year. That must be how this develops.

    Given the betting odds in the run up, it’s not exactly shocking.
    Though if your reaction is shared by many Tory MPs, then Johnson is toast, and pronto.
    This was the 75th safest Tory seat and the fourth or fifth longest held.

    It’s been lost on a ginormous direct Tory Lib Dem swing.

    There are going to be lots of MPs doing sums and then changing soiled underwear.
  • ydoethur said:

    This cant be right. North Shropshire is a Leave seat and the Lib Dems are filthy remoaners.

    This also of course effectively puts to bed the leave/remain divide.

    Which is also a very good thing.
    Hope you’re right. Suspect you’re wrong.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,049
    Well done the Yellow Peril.

    So, has BJ lost the last of his teflon coating?

    LibDems have 2 years to dig in.

    Turnout 46%.

    Flag for some changes in agricultural policy?

    Constituency up for changes at the Boundary Review - gaining that extra 10-15% in the bottom right corner.


  • For older followers, note #NorthShropshire was John Biffen’s seat

    As Brexity and as unwoke a place as you can imagine


    https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1471730570162065408?s=20
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,340

    ydoethur said:

    This cant be right. North Shropshire is a Leave seat and the Lib Dems are filthy remoaners.

    This also of course effectively puts to bed the leave/remain divide.

    Which is also a very good thing.
    Hope you’re right. Suspect you’re wrong.
    Well, that wouldn’t be unheard of, of course :smile:
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,502

    While there is some commentary on “tactical voting” isn’t the bigger picture former Tory voters voting LD? Whether they will continue to do so or return to the Tories is the big unknown for the GE - if Johnson is still leading, then the chances are they may not return.

    Good morning. And it is somewhat better, cricket and politics wise.
    Couple of thoughts. This somewhat reminds me of Newbury in 1993, where there was a very substantial to the LD's, maintained at the next couple of GE's but long gone now.
    Secondly, neither the LD's nor Labour are putting up candidates in Southend West; however, the Greens, AIUI, are. If not a lot changes could we see a big Green vote there? In times past the LD's have sometimes run the Tories reasonably close.

    And I note that the cricket has stopped, ni=ot for lunch or tea, but for dinner. How civilised!
    4:30pm is a bit late for lunch. I don't know whether the second interval is still "tea".
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,340
    Andy_JS said:

    While there is some commentary on “tactical voting” isn’t the bigger picture former Tory voters voting LD? Whether they will continue to do so or return to the Tories is the big unknown for the GE - if Johnson is still leading, then the chances are they may not return.

    Good morning. And it is somewhat better, cricket and politics wise.
    Couple of thoughts. This somewhat reminds me of Newbury in 1993, where there was a very substantial to the LD's, maintained at the next couple of GE's but long gone now.
    Secondly, neither the LD's nor Labour are putting up candidates in Southend West; however, the Greens, AIUI, are. If not a lot changes could we see a big Green vote there? In times past the LD's have sometimes run the Tories reasonably close.

    And I note that the cricket has stopped, ni=ot for lunch or tea, but for dinner. How civilised!
    4:30pm is a bit late for lunch. I don't know whether the second interval is still "tea".
    Yes.

    Silly thing to stop for that late. Should be cocoa.
  • While there is some commentary on “tactical voting” isn’t the bigger picture former Tory voters voting LD? Whether they will continue to do so or return to the Tories is the big unknown for the GE - if Johnson is still leading, then the chances are they may not return.

    Not necessarily. The turnout is so much lower that it could be that lib Dems got all of the previous labour vote, while the Tories just didn't turnout. In reality it's probably a bit of both.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,049
    edited December 2021

    Isn’t Johnson the classic “campaign in poetry, govern in prose” politician?

    He’s very good at the former, very poor at the latter - and needs a much stronger team around him to cover his deficiencies.

    Even Thatcher needed a Willie - and had the wit to realise it. Johnson’s “it’ll be alright on the night” has run out of road.

    In the short term he’ll probably survive, but the men in grey suits need to be readying the pearl handled revolver and decanter of whisky.

    If not now, when?

    The man is a disgrace to the office.
    Agree with thousand-mile Stu for once.

    We have known about BJ needing a competent operation to support his image politics since that was only how things worked fairly well in London.

    I'd say it's too late.

    Which Tory alternatives are actually clean on Covid - if they aren't their Govt depts will be as leaky as Boris's operation has been? Civil Service / Adviser loyalty is not what it was, and those who break professional confidentiality now do so with impunity.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,836

    This cant be right. North Shropshire is a Leave seat and the Lib Dems are filthy remoaners.

    If one legacy of North Shropshire is that we can get through an election without having to talk about Leave and Remain percentages every five bloody seconds, then Owen Paterson will, unwittingly, have done the nation a great service.

    And if this is the key toppling domino that leads to the downfall of Johnson? Arise, Sir Owen!
  • fox327fox327 Posts: 370
    darkage said:

    This is shocking, I had bought in to the idea that this was blue rosette on a donkey territory.
    The scale of the victory is absolutely stunning. The tory vote has completely collapsed. Unlike C &A, with no oestensible reason this time.
    Suggests that there really are no 'safe' Conservative seats any more. If the LDs can do this despite Brexit, and despite their 'woke' shenanigans; then nowhere is safe. The conservatives can collapse in their heartlands, in the same way as the liberal party collapsed at the start of the last century, and in the same way as Scotland and the red wall collapsed for labour. That should be the lesson from all this.
    Boris can only lead when he has a team of advisors around him with vision and strategy and who are able to manage his parliamentary party. Since Cummings left, that has gone completely. The current set up is a farce and everyone can see straight through it; as revealed by Peppa Pig, Patterson, Downing st parties, vaxports.
    I've come to the assessment that it cannot be corrected, because he seems to have let his wife have too much power. This plus a culture of compliance and fear about speaking truth to power, cannot lead to success in governing a democracy where you can be deposed by either your party or your voters.
    He's become toxic. Either the whole system in No.10 is completely reformed, or he goes next year. That must be how this develops.


    The Conservatives can't easily remove Johnson as he is the figurehead of Brexit. He, and they, are painted into a corner as they are commited to Brexit and cannot reverse the policy. If Johnson goes, so does the absolute commitment of the Conservative Party to Brexit. Johnson may go next year, but there has got to be a good chance that he stays and that there is a Labour landslide victory at the next general election.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,849
    MattW said:

    Well done the Yellow Peril.

    So, has BJ lost the last of his teflon coating?

    LibDems have 2 years to dig in.

    Turnout 46%.

    Flag for some changes in agricultural policy?

    Constituency up for changes at the Boundary Review - gaining that extra 10-15% in the bottom right corner.


    Don’t you mean losing?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,943
    edited December 2021
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    darkage said:

    This is shocking, I had bought in to the idea that this was blue rosette on a donkey territory.
    The scale of the victory is absolutely stunning. The tory vote has completely collapsed. Unlike C &A, with no oestensible reason this time.
    Suggests that there really are no 'safe' Conservative seats any more. If the LDs can do this despite Brexit, and despite their 'woke' shenanigans; then nowhere is safe. The conservatives can collapse in their heartlands, in the same way as the liberal party collapsed at the start of the last century, and in the same way as Scotland and the red wall collapsed for labour. That should be the lesson from all this.
    Boris can only lead when he has a team of advisors around him with vision and strategy and who are able to manage his parliamentary party. Since Cummings left, that has gone completely. The current set up is a farce and everyone can see straight through it; as revealed by Peppa Pig, Patterson, Downing st parties, vaxports.
    I've come to the assessment that it cannot be corrected, because he seems to have let his wife have too much power. This plus a culture of compliance and fear about speaking truth to power, cannot lead to success in governing a democracy where you can be deposed by either your party or your voters.
    He's become toxic. Either the whole system in No.10 is completely reformed, or he goes next year. That must be how this develops.

    Given the betting odds in the run up, it’s not exactly shocking.
    Though if your reaction is shared by many Tory MPs, then Johnson is toast, and pronto.
    This was the 75th safest Tory seat and the fourth or fifth longest held.

    It’s been lost on a ginormous direct Tory Lib Dem swing.

    There are going to be lots of MPs doing sums and then changing soiled underwear.
    Indeed.
    But it’s been clear for days that this was at the very least possible - so for some, worst fears confirmed rather than shocked. Which means they’ll already have thought about how to react.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331

    For older followers, note #NorthShropshire was John Biffen’s seat

    As Brexity and as unwoke a place as you can imagine


    https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1471730570162065408?s=20

    My reading of this result is that leave/ remain is no longer salient with voters, while Johnson's honesty and integrity now (finally) is.
  • Mr. 327, that's total nonsense.

    We've left, and there's zero appetite in the Conservative Party to change that.

    The PM is incompetent and should be thrown overboard posthaste.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,049

    While there is some commentary on “tactical voting” isn’t the bigger picture former Tory voters voting LD? Whether they will continue to do so or return to the Tories is the big unknown for the GE - if Johnson is still leading, then the chances are they may not return.

    Not necessarily. The turnout is so much lower that it could be that lib Dems got all of the previous labour vote, while the Tories just didn't turnout. In reality it's probably a bit of both.
    I thought 46% was normal-ish for a byelection.

    C&A was 52%.
    AB&S was 34%.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,836

    Nearly 22 hours since I got my booster - Pfizer - and apart from a tiny bit of soreness where I was jabbed I feel fine. Long may it continue!

    Meant to be having mine this evening - then straight out running Saturday morning. And Sunday morning as well. Fingers crossed...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,943
    edited December 2021

    For older followers, note #NorthShropshire was John Biffen’s seat

    As Brexity and as unwoke a place as you can imagine


    https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1471730570162065408?s=20

    Neither woke nor anti-woke have quite the political salience they do in the US.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,040
    Andy_JS said:

    The new MP read history at Trinity College, Cambridge.

    I read detective novels philosophy at Trinity College, Cambridge.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,502
    darkage said:

    This is shocking, I had bought in to the idea that this was blue rosette on a donkey territory.
    The scale of the victory is absolutely stunning. The tory vote has completely collapsed. Unlike C &A, with no oestensible reason this time.
    Suggests that there really are no 'safe' Conservative seats any more. If the LDs can do this despite Brexit, and despite their 'woke' shenanigans; then nowhere is safe. The conservatives can collapse in their heartlands, in the same way as the liberal party collapsed at the start of the last century, and in the same way as Scotland and the red wall collapsed for labour. That should be the lesson from all this.
    Boris can only lead when he has a team of advisors around him with vision and strategy and who are able to manage his parliamentary party. Since Cummings left, that has gone completely. The current set up is a farce and everyone can see straight through it; as revealed by Peppa Pig, Patterson, Downing st parties, vaxports.
    I've come to the assessment that it cannot be corrected, because he seems to have let his wife have too much power. This plus a culture of compliance and fear about speaking truth to power, cannot lead to success in governing a democracy where you can be deposed by either your party or your voters.
    He's become toxic. Either the whole system in No.10 is completely reformed, or he goes next year. That must be how this develops.


    Comment on the Telegraph website.

    "Steven Brown
    Can you imagine the anger and frustration the PM is feeling now as she tries to console her husband following the loss in Shropshire?"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/12/17/north-shropshire-election-result-tories-lose-lib-dems-win-labour/
  • What a lovely result to wake up to. Well done to the Lib Dems. Goodbye Johnson.
  • Just woken up. Good God on a horse!

    Brexit and woke was mentioned above. Brexit works for the Tories now in reverse as their Brexit deal is repeatedly punching people in the bollocks whilst the ideologues say "now we're free of the EU they have finally stopped punching you in the bollocks"

    And woke? How can you have a culture war, claiming that the other is threatening your traditional British values whilst you corruptly hand vast contracts to your mates with no tender and go the UN to talk to the world about how Kermit the Frog mistreated Miss Piggy?

    Yes its a byelection, yes people vote tactically and yes the kind of LibDem army have seen won't be repeated. But - look at all the seats which are similar to NS where the LDs are a lot closer than they were here in 2nd. Wouldn't need a 34% swing to remove various big name Tories...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,040

    For older followers, note #NorthShropshire was John Biffen’s seat

    As Brexity and as unwoke a place as you can imagine


    https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1471730570162065408?s=20

    I was always rather fond of John Biffen: an exceptionally honest politician.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,943
    Time for a revival of Blake’s 7 ?

    Future BBC savings will require cheaper shows, say auditors
    National Audit Office says there is little extra left to cut behind the scenes as licence fee income falls
    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2021/dec/17/future-bbc-savings-will-require-cheaper-shows-say-auditors
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,849
    Andy_JS said:

    darkage said:

    This is shocking, I had bought in to the idea that this was blue rosette on a donkey territory.
    The scale of the victory is absolutely stunning. The tory vote has completely collapsed. Unlike C &A, with no oestensible reason this time.
    Suggests that there really are no 'safe' Conservative seats any more. If the LDs can do this despite Brexit, and despite their 'woke' shenanigans; then nowhere is safe. The conservatives can collapse in their heartlands, in the same way as the liberal party collapsed at the start of the last century, and in the same way as Scotland and the red wall collapsed for labour. That should be the lesson from all this.
    Boris can only lead when he has a team of advisors around him with vision and strategy and who are able to manage his parliamentary party. Since Cummings left, that has gone completely. The current set up is a farce and everyone can see straight through it; as revealed by Peppa Pig, Patterson, Downing st parties, vaxports.
    I've come to the assessment that it cannot be corrected, because he seems to have let his wife have too much power. This plus a culture of compliance and fear about speaking truth to power, cannot lead to success in governing a democracy where you can be deposed by either your party or your voters.
    He's become toxic. Either the whole system in No.10 is completely reformed, or he goes next year. That must be how this develops.


    Comment on the Telegraph website.

    "Steven Brown
    Can you imagine the anger and frustration the PM is feeling now as she tries to console her husband following the loss in Shropshire?"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/12/17/north-shropshire-election-result-tories-lose-lib-dems-win-labour/
    Lol but really it is bad politics to try and paint his wife as some sort of demon.

    The sad fact is that he is weak and needy, and simply responds to whoever sat on him last. She is influential merely because he sees her a lot, and not from any character flaw of her own.
  • Mr. B, no. They'll screw it up with political preaching and incompetent writing.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,849
    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The new MP read history at Trinity College, Cambridge.

    I read detective novels philosophy at Trinity College, Cambridge.
    Superb preparation for a career in car insurance.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    fox327 said:

    darkage said:

    This is shocking, I had bought in to the idea that this was blue rosette on a donkey territory.
    The scale of the victory is absolutely stunning. The tory vote has completely collapsed. Unlike C &A, with no oestensible reason this time.
    Suggests that there really are no 'safe' Conservative seats any more. If the LDs can do this despite Brexit, and despite their 'woke' shenanigans; then nowhere is safe. The conservatives can collapse in their heartlands, in the same way as the liberal party collapsed at the start of the last century, and in the same way as Scotland and the red wall collapsed for labour. That should be the lesson from all this.
    Boris can only lead when he has a team of advisors around him with vision and strategy and who are able to manage his parliamentary party. Since Cummings left, that has gone completely. The current set up is a farce and everyone can see straight through it; as revealed by Peppa Pig, Patterson, Downing st parties, vaxports.
    I've come to the assessment that it cannot be corrected, because he seems to have let his wife have too much power. This plus a culture of compliance and fear about speaking truth to power, cannot lead to success in governing a democracy where you can be deposed by either your party or your voters.
    He's become toxic. Either the whole system in No.10 is completely reformed, or he goes next year. That must be how this develops.


    The Conservatives can't easily remove Johnson as he is the figurehead of Brexit. He, and they, are painted into a corner as they are commited to Brexit and cannot reverse the policy. If Johnson goes, so does the absolute commitment of the Conservative Party to Brexit. Johnson may go next year, but there has got to be a good chance that he stays and that there is a Labour landslide victory at the next general election.
    I think the NS result has proved this wrong. The LD's - the most extreme remain party - have just beaten the Johnson led tories in their 'Brexit' heartlands. Brexit is just not a big issue anymore. No one is going to argue to reverse Brexit now. Its finished, done.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    Nigelb said:

    Heathener said:

    IanB2 said:

    She’s going to need some public speaking classes

    She is but wouldn't it be lovely if this marked a move away from the kind of "charismatic" bullshit that personifies Boris Johnson? The content of what she said was really good. A local candidate.

    I also really liked her thanks to Labour supporters for lending their votes. Very cool.
    Unwise.
    Why is a generous acknowledgment of what voters did unwise ?
    Makes you sound like Boris.
    And actually wise. She'll need to keep them onside if she's to retain the seat.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,836

    Just woken up. Good God on a horse!

    Brexit and woke was mentioned above. Brexit works for the Tories now in reverse as their Brexit deal is repeatedly punching people in the bollocks whilst the ideologues say "now we're free of the EU they have finally stopped punching you in the bollocks"

    And woke? How can you have a culture war, claiming that the other is threatening your traditional British values whilst you corruptly hand vast contracts to your mates with no tender and go the UN to talk to the world about how Kermit the Frog mistreated Miss Piggy?

    Yes its a byelection, yes people vote tactically and yes the kind of LibDem army have seen won't be repeated. But - look at all the seats which are similar to NS where the LDs are a lot closer than they were here in 2nd. Wouldn't need a 34% swing to remove various big name Tories...

    I suspect that you are reading too much into this. I doubt that the vote had anything much to do with either Brexit or the broader, tedious landscape of culture wars.

    The key factor is that the Prime Minister is useless and people, even in traditional Tory areas, are getting sick of him. That, and fatigue with the slog of this interminable pandemic.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,049
    IanB2 said:

    MattW said:

    Well done the Yellow Peril.

    So, has BJ lost the last of his teflon coating?

    LibDems have 2 years to dig in.

    Turnout 46%.

    Flag for some changes in agricultural policy?

    Constituency up for changes at the Boundary Review - gaining that extra 10-15% in the bottom right corner.


    Don’t you mean losing?
    Yes, you are right. (*&^% LibDems distracting me !

    The maps are here:
    https://www.bcereviews.org.uk/node/6490
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,404
    Andy_JS said:

    darkage said:

    This is shocking, I had bought in to the idea that this was blue rosette on a donkey territory.
    The scale of the victory is absolutely stunning. The tory vote has completely collapsed. Unlike C &A, with no oestensible reason this time.
    Suggests that there really are no 'safe' Conservative seats any more. If the LDs can do this despite Brexit, and despite their 'woke' shenanigans; then nowhere is safe. The conservatives can collapse in their heartlands, in the same way as the liberal party collapsed at the start of the last century, and in the same way as Scotland and the red wall collapsed for labour. That should be the lesson from all this.
    Boris can only lead when he has a team of advisors around him with vision and strategy and who are able to manage his parliamentary party. Since Cummings left, that has gone completely. The current set up is a farce and everyone can see straight through it; as revealed by Peppa Pig, Patterson, Downing st parties, vaxports.
    I've come to the assessment that it cannot be corrected, because he seems to have let his wife have too much power. This plus a culture of compliance and fear about speaking truth to power, cannot lead to success in governing a democracy where you can be deposed by either your party or your voters.
    He's become toxic. Either the whole system in No.10 is completely reformed, or he goes next year. That must be how this develops.


    Comment on the Telegraph website.

    "Steven Brown
    Can you imagine the anger and frustration the PM is feeling now as she tries to console her husband following the loss in Shropshire?"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/12/17/north-shropshire-election-result-tories-lose-lib-dems-win-labour/
    Naughty!!!! But nice!!!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,849
    edited December 2021
    Mail: In a stunning turnaround Helen Morgan was elected the party's 13th MP to heap more pressure on the Prime Minister and send shockwaves through the Conservatives.

    Mr Johnson is already under huge pressure from his restless backbenchers amid new Covid measures and a series of scandals involving lockdown-busting parties in Downing Street.

    And they are sure to erupt yet again after this nightmare before Christmas in the former safe seat of ex-minister Owen Paterson - who quit amid a paid lobbying scandal last month. North Shropshire had previously only had Tory MPs in its modern incarnation and was the party's 76th safest seat. But they lost it with a swing of more than 26 per cent to Ms Morgan, who finished a distant third in the 2019 general election. But today she was elected with 17,957 votes, a majority of almost 6,000 over Conservative candidate Neil Shastri-Hurst.

    This morning's upset suggests a high level of public fury at the Prime Minister after he and his staff were implicated in a series of parties during Covid restrictions last year that are alleged to have broken the law.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,577

    R4 West Midlands political correspondent commenting that Tory candidate spent his time firefighting while LibDems put in enormous effort with lots of activists. Feeling was that traditional Tory seat was being overlooked as others are getting “levelling up”.

    Yes, I think for a lot of Shire England, "levelling up" looks a lot like "levelling down".

  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    MattW said:

    Isn’t Johnson the classic “campaign in poetry, govern in prose” politician?

    He’s very good at the former, very poor at the latter - and needs a much stronger team around him to cover his deficiencies.

    Even Thatcher needed a Willie - and had the wit to realise it. Johnson’s “it’ll be alright on the night” has run out of road.

    In the short term he’ll probably survive, but the men in grey suits need to be readying the pearl handled revolver and decanter of whisky.

    If not now, when?

    The man is a disgrace to the office.
    Agree with thousand-mile Stu for once.

    We have known about BJ needing a competent operation to support his image politics since that was only how things worked fairly well in London.

    I'd say it's too late.

    Which Tory alternatives are actually clean on Covid - if they aren't their Govt depts will be as leaky as Boris's operation has been? Civil Service / Adviser loyalty is not what it was, and those who break professional confidentiality now do so with impunity.
    That's where I think Hunt has an advantage.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,943

    Nigelb said:

    Heathener said:

    IanB2 said:

    She’s going to need some public speaking classes

    She is but wouldn't it be lovely if this marked a move away from the kind of "charismatic" bullshit that personifies Boris Johnson? The content of what she said was really good. A local candidate.

    I also really liked her thanks to Labour supporters for lending their votes. Very cool.
    Unwise.
    Why is a generous acknowledgment of what voters did unwise ?
    Makes you sound like Boris.
    And actually wise. She'll need to keep them onside if she's to retain the seat.
    It’s an attitude the national parties should adopt.
    The likelihood is that it will require a coalition to replace the Tories. The usual “we’re going to fight for every vote in every constituency” is just stupid.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,485
    pigeon said:

    Nearly 22 hours since I got my booster - Pfizer - and apart from a tiny bit of soreness where I was jabbed I feel fine. Long may it continue!

    Meant to be having mine this evening - then straight out running Saturday morning. And Sunday morning as well. Fingers crossed...
    Fingers crossed for you too. But don't overdo it.

    I had my Pfizer yesterday morning. I've just come back from a seven-mile run, and am in bed feeling dizzy and a bit nauseous. And my harm hurts like *******.

    But at least I've got today's run over with, and the little 'un's going to school so I can just sleep. :)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,040

    While there is some commentary on “tactical voting” isn’t the bigger picture former Tory voters voting LD? Whether they will continue to do so or return to the Tories is the big unknown for the GE - if Johnson is still leading, then the chances are they may not return.

    Not necessarily. The turnout is so much lower that it could be that lib Dems got all of the previous labour vote, while the Tories just didn't turnout. In reality it's probably a bit of both.
    Hang on:

    While it's true that the Labour 2019 + LibDem 2019 = LibDem 2021, that rather ignores the fact that the Labour Party still got 10% of the vote this time around.

    Lab + LD in 2019 = 18,000
    Lab + LD in 2021 = 22,000

    In other words, there were probably at least 4,000 direct Con -> LD switchers.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,836

    MattW said:

    Isn’t Johnson the classic “campaign in poetry, govern in prose” politician?

    He’s very good at the former, very poor at the latter - and needs a much stronger team around him to cover his deficiencies.

    Even Thatcher needed a Willie - and had the wit to realise it. Johnson’s “it’ll be alright on the night” has run out of road.

    In the short term he’ll probably survive, but the men in grey suits need to be readying the pearl handled revolver and decanter of whisky.

    If not now, when?

    The man is a disgrace to the office.
    Agree with thousand-mile Stu for once.

    We have known about BJ needing a competent operation to support his image politics since that was only how things worked fairly well in London.

    I'd say it's too late.

    Which Tory alternatives are actually clean on Covid - if they aren't their Govt depts will be as leaky as Boris's operation has been? Civil Service / Adviser loyalty is not what it was, and those who break professional confidentiality now do so with impunity.
    That's where I think Hunt has an advantage.
    Two words: Exercise Cygnus.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    I wake up to a negative PCR test and 33 pence extra in my Betfair account.

    Good start to the day.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,577
    Nigelb said:

    Time for a revival of Blake’s 7 ?

    Future BBC savings will require cheaper shows, say auditors
    National Audit Office says there is little extra left to cut behind the scenes as licence fee income falls
    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2021/dec/17/future-bbc-savings-will-require-cheaper-shows-say-auditors

    Spend on decent writers, save on big names.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,836

    pigeon said:

    Nearly 22 hours since I got my booster - Pfizer - and apart from a tiny bit of soreness where I was jabbed I feel fine. Long may it continue!

    Meant to be having mine this evening - then straight out running Saturday morning. And Sunday morning as well. Fingers crossed...
    Fingers crossed for you too. But don't overdo it.

    I had my Pfizer yesterday morning. I've just come back from a seven-mile run, and am in bed feeling dizzy and a bit nauseous. And my harm hurts like *******.

    But at least I've got today's run over with, and the little 'un's going to school so I can just sleep. :)
    Good man.

    I had both my AZ's without suffering any side effects at all, but I'm not taking anything for granted.

    Certainly if I do end up feeling like death warmed over I'll be staying home for the weekend. Won't be any use for cross country if I'm vax zonked. I run with all the elegance and vitesse of a tortoise wading through treacle at the best of times.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,577
    Alistair said:

    I wake up to a negative PCR test and 33 pence extra in my Betfair account.

    Good start to the day.

    Rio, here we come!
  • JACK_WJACK_W Posts: 682
    IanB2 said:

    MikeL said:

    Andy_JS said:

    MikeL said:

    This is a wonderful website with many posters very knowledgeable about politics.

    Yet despite that knowledge, all posters proved completely hopeless at predicting this by-election result.

    And if they can't get anywhere near predicting a by-election result, we can say for certain they have no chance whatsoever of predicting what will happen with Covid - a subject they know far less about than politics.

    Yet very soon they'll be back on here pontificating with great confidence about how Covid should be handled.

    Many predicted a LD win, but mostly very narrowly.
    Yes, I know.

    I don't regard a prediction of a narrow LD win as having been an accurate prediction. It's miles away from what actually happened.

    The LD majority was over 15%. An accurate prediction would have been a very easy LD win - say a majority of over 10%. I don't recall anyone on here predicting that.
    Actually, I think somebody did, but I can’t remember who it was. But there was definitely a PB’er who said the LDs had it in the bag and would win by a decent margin. Step forward for your medal….
    Kindly mount the podium .... Mike Smithson ... :smiley:
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    pigeon said:

    MattW said:

    Isn’t Johnson the classic “campaign in poetry, govern in prose” politician?

    He’s very good at the former, very poor at the latter - and needs a much stronger team around him to cover his deficiencies.

    Even Thatcher needed a Willie - and had the wit to realise it. Johnson’s “it’ll be alright on the night” has run out of road.

    In the short term he’ll probably survive, but the men in grey suits need to be readying the pearl handled revolver and decanter of whisky.

    If not now, when?

    The man is a disgrace to the office.
    Agree with thousand-mile Stu for once.

    We have known about BJ needing a competent operation to support his image politics since that was only how things worked fairly well in London.

    I'd say it's too late.

    Which Tory alternatives are actually clean on Covid - if they aren't their Govt depts will be as leaky as Boris's operation has been? Civil Service / Adviser loyalty is not what it was, and those who break professional confidentiality now do so with impunity.
    That's where I think Hunt has an advantage.
    Two words: Exercise Cygnus.
    I don't think people will care. It's what people have done and said since the start of the pandemic that will count.
  • R4 Sir John Curtice observes that traditional Conservative voter willingness to vote LibDem as a protest and to punish the government - suspended after the 2010 coalition - appears to have returned.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,958
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,737
    Of the 12k Tory voters, I wonder what proportion were postals made before the worst of the scandals, compared with on the day walk-ins.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,049
    edited December 2021
    ..
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,485
    edited December 2021
    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    Nearly 22 hours since I got my booster - Pfizer - and apart from a tiny bit of soreness where I was jabbed I feel fine. Long may it continue!

    Meant to be having mine this evening - then straight out running Saturday morning. And Sunday morning as well. Fingers crossed...
    Fingers crossed for you too. But don't overdo it.

    I had my Pfizer yesterday morning. I've just come back from a seven-mile run, and am in bed feeling dizzy and a bit nauseous. And my harm hurts like *******.

    But at least I've got today's run over with, and the little 'un's going to school so I can just sleep. :)
    Good man.

    I had both my AZ's without suffering any side effects at all, but I'm not taking anything for granted.

    Certainly if I do end up feeling like death warmed over I'll be staying home for the weekend. Won't be any use for cross country if I'm vax zonked. I run with all the elegance and vitesse of a tortoise wading through treacle at the best of times.
    Wow! As speedy as a tortoise wading through treacle! I'm at the sloth crossing a busy motorway stage. At least, that's how I feel at the moment. Rather flat ...

    I'm actually a really slow runner, but I do seem able to maintain regular reasonable distances. And I am nearly fifty, so I can always blame age. ;)

    (Although it's rather embarrassing when I get overtaken by an evidently much older man...)
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    JACK_W said:

    IanB2 said:

    MikeL said:

    Andy_JS said:

    MikeL said:

    This is a wonderful website with many posters very knowledgeable about politics.

    Yet despite that knowledge, all posters proved completely hopeless at predicting this by-election result.

    And if they can't get anywhere near predicting a by-election result, we can say for certain they have no chance whatsoever of predicting what will happen with Covid - a subject they know far less about than politics.

    Yet very soon they'll be back on here pontificating with great confidence about how Covid should be handled.

    Many predicted a LD win, but mostly very narrowly.
    Yes, I know.

    I don't regard a prediction of a narrow LD win as having been an accurate prediction. It's miles away from what actually happened.

    The LD majority was over 15%. An accurate prediction would have been a very easy LD win - say a majority of over 10%. I don't recall anyone on here predicting that.
    Actually, I think somebody did, but I can’t remember who it was. But there was definitely a PB’er who said the LDs had it in the bag and would win by a decent margin. Step forward for your medal….
    Kindly mount the podium .... Mike Smithson ... :smiley:
    I fear he will demur, given his legendary modesty.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,040
    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The new MP read history at Trinity College, Cambridge.

    I read detective novels philosophy at Trinity College, Cambridge.
    Does anyone know when Ms Morgan, née Halcrow was at Trinity?

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,958
    BREXIT IS DONE

    The government is downgrading its demands on the European Court of Justice and prioritising customs and medicines - exactly as @StefanieBolzen reported a week ago and No10 denied.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/dec/17/uk-plans-interim-fix-to-brexit-protocol-to-stabilise-northern-ireland
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The new MP read history at Trinity College, Cambridge.

    I read detective novels philosophy at Trinity College, Cambridge.
    Does anyone know when Ms Morgan, née Halcrow was at Trinity?

    She’s 46 so she’d have started in 1992 or 1993 depending on gap years etc
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,849
    moonshine said:

    Of the 12k Tory voters, I wonder what proportion were postals made before the worst of the scandals, compared with on the day walk-ins.

    As I have said many times, people with postal votes who return them early are not floating voters.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,849
    JACK_W said:

    IanB2 said:

    MikeL said:

    Andy_JS said:

    MikeL said:

    This is a wonderful website with many posters very knowledgeable about politics.

    Yet despite that knowledge, all posters proved completely hopeless at predicting this by-election result.

    And if they can't get anywhere near predicting a by-election result, we can say for certain they have no chance whatsoever of predicting what will happen with Covid - a subject they know far less about than politics.

    Yet very soon they'll be back on here pontificating with great confidence about how Covid should be handled.

    Many predicted a LD win, but mostly very narrowly.
    Yes, I know.

    I don't regard a prediction of a narrow LD win as having been an accurate prediction. It's miles away from what actually happened.

    The LD majority was over 15%. An accurate prediction would have been a very easy LD win - say a majority of over 10%. I don't recall anyone on here predicting that.
    Actually, I think somebody did, but I can’t remember who it was. But there was definitely a PB’er who said the LDs had it in the bag and would win by a decent margin. Step forward for your medal….
    Kindly mount the podium .... Mike Smithson ... :smiley:
    Yes, but there was someone else who made the specific prediction more recently.
  • pigeon said:

    Just woken up. Good God on a horse!

    Brexit and woke was mentioned above. Brexit works for the Tories now in reverse as their Brexit deal is repeatedly punching people in the bollocks whilst the ideologues say "now we're free of the EU they have finally stopped punching you in the bollocks"

    And woke? How can you have a culture war, claiming that the other is threatening your traditional British values whilst you corruptly hand vast contracts to your mates with no tender and go the UN to talk to the world about how Kermit the Frog mistreated Miss Piggy?

    Yes its a byelection, yes people vote tactically and yes the kind of LibDem army have seen won't be repeated. But - look at all the seats which are similar to NS where the LDs are a lot closer than they were here in 2nd. Wouldn't need a 34% swing to remove various big name Tories...

    I suspect that you are reading too much into this. I doubt that the vote had anything much to do with either Brexit or the broader, tedious landscape of culture wars.

    The key factor is that the Prime Minister is useless and people, even in traditional Tory areas, are getting sick of him. That, and fatigue with the slog of this interminable pandemic.
    Thats literally my point. For weeks the defence has been "this is a Brexit seat, they won't vote for remoaners." Yes they will - Brexit works in reverse now for many, especially in farming and fishing areas.

    And its been "the LibDems are too woke for traditional Tories". As you point out, with a PM this useless how can they try and portray the other as the threat to their traditional British values?
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,737
    Also with respect the next general and to all the Starmer fanboys. Does it not concern you that Labour were second in this seat in 2019, well ahead of the third place Liberals. And yet the swing Tory voters needed for a Labour majority flipped so comprehensively Liberal?

    Looking back, the Cleggasm year was the only time Labour didn’t finish second since 1992! You may say that this was not a Labour target seat and you’d be right. But with Scotland firmly SNP, the Red Wall a recovery job and seats like this now Lib Dem rather Labour targets, it’s even harder to see where Kier gets a majority from than before.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,404
    Good to see Jack_W back!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,340
    Scott_xP said:

    I suppose what is actually historic is that it’s not merely Boris Johnson’s fault they most the by-election, it’s also his fault they even had it.
    https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/1471740432040222727

    That's one of the many things that can't be batted away.

    54 letters needed. Must surely be over 40 already.
  • Well I got that one wrong.

    I thought it would be a Con hold, though maybe not by much.

    Boris gone? Not sure it will happen in a hurry but it has to be before the next election or they could be reduced to a handful of seats.

    Canada 1993 event?

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1993_Canadian_federal_election
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,340
    IanB2 said:

    moonshine said:

    Of the 12k Tory voters, I wonder what proportion were postals made before the worst of the scandals, compared with on the day walk-ins.

    As I have said many times, people with postal votes who return them early are not floating voters.
    The entire electorate of North Shropshire are not 'floating voters.' That's another damning thing about this.
  • moonshine said:

    Also with respect the next general and to all the Starmer fanboys. Does it not concern you that Labour were second in this seat in 2019, well ahead of the third place Liberals. And yet the swing Tory voters needed for a Labour majority flipped so comprehensively Liberal?

    Looking back, the Cleggasm year was the only time Labour didn’t finish second since 1992! You may say that this was not a Labour target seat and you’d be right. But with Scotland firmly SNP, the Red Wall a recovery job and seats like this now Lib Dem rather Labour targets, it’s even harder to see where Kier gets a majority from than before.

    Labour cannot win a majority, not without Scotland. So the result in NS is great news for Starmer as it shows that he can expect many many Tory seats to switch to the LDs and enter the not-Tory block.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,849
    moonshine said:

    Also with respect the next general and to all the Starmer fanboys. Does it not concern you that Labour were second in this seat in 2019, well ahead of the third place Liberals. And yet the swing Tory voters needed for a Labour majority flipped so comprehensively Liberal?

    Looking back, the Cleggasm year was the only time Labour didn’t finish second since 1992! You may say that this was not a Labour target seat and you’d be right. But with Scotland firmly SNP, the Red Wall a recovery job and seats like this now Lib Dem rather Labour targets, it’s even harder to see where Kier gets a majority from than before.

    Credit the voters for recognising that in a seat like this, Labour were never going to win.

    The next question is whether Labour themselves recognise this and adopt a more pluralist approach to the next election.
  • While there is some commentary on “tactical voting” isn’t the bigger picture former Tory voters voting LD? Whether they will continue to do so or return to the Tories is the big unknown for the GE - if Johnson is still leading, then the chances are they may not return.

    The question for me is will enough of the switchers stay switched and will that, combined with any tactical voting, be enough to get the Tories out next time? I hope so but I’m not confident.

    English voters will be subject to scare stories at the next GE of a potential unholy alliance of Lab/LD/SNP. That may work to round up enough potential switchers back to the Blue team.

    But is that enough now to scare the horses? Sturgeon’s had a good pandemic, she has good ratings in England, doesn’t she?
    Yes.

    ‘Nicola Sturgeon is England's favourite political leader, poll finds’

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/19024068.nicola-sturgeon-englands-favourite-political-leader-poll-finds/
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,577
    moonshine said:

    Also with respect the next general and to all the Starmer fanboys. Does it not concern you that Labour were second in this seat in 2019, well ahead of the third place Liberals. And yet the swing Tory voters needed for a Labour majority flipped so comprehensively Liberal?

    Looking back, the Cleggasm year was the only time Labour didn’t finish second since 1992! You may say that this was not a Labour target seat and you’d be right. But with Scotland firmly SNP, the Red Wall a recovery job and seats like this now Lib Dem rather Labour targets, it’s even harder to see where Kier gets a majority from than before.

    Quite respectable Green vote too, albeit just short of saving a deposit.

    Ed Davey is a clever politician, and much more astute than we have had for a while in the LDs. He seems to have got the show back on the road.

    He needs a good GE to keep up progress but is doing all the right things.
  • DougSeal said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The new MP read history at Trinity College, Cambridge.

    I read detective novels philosophy at Trinity College, Cambridge.
    Does anyone know when Ms Morgan, née Halcrow was at Trinity?

    She’s 46 so she’d have started in 1992 or 1993 depending on gap years etc
    I'm 46 and started uni in 1994.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,340
    Dura_Ace said:

    Scott_xP said:

    I suppose what is actually historic is that it’s not merely Boris Johnson’s fault they most the by-election, it’s also his fault they even had it.
    https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/1471740432040222727

    Spare a thought for the pb.com tories who defended O-Patz as if they were at the Siege of Stalingrad in the 24 hours before Johnson u-turned and abandoned him.
    I just have.

    I will now pick myself up off the floor and try to stop laughing.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    DougSeal said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The new MP read history at Trinity College, Cambridge.

    I read detective novels philosophy at Trinity College, Cambridge.
    Does anyone know when Ms Morgan, née Halcrow was at Trinity?

    She’s 46 so she’d have started in 1992 or 1993 depending on gap years etc
    I'm 46 and started uni in 1994.
    I was a year out.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,340
    Foxy said:

    moonshine said:

    Also with respect the next general and to all the Starmer fanboys. Does it not concern you that Labour were second in this seat in 2019, well ahead of the third place Liberals. And yet the swing Tory voters needed for a Labour majority flipped so comprehensively Liberal?

    Looking back, the Cleggasm year was the only time Labour didn’t finish second since 1992! You may say that this was not a Labour target seat and you’d be right. But with Scotland firmly SNP, the Red Wall a recovery job and seats like this now Lib Dem rather Labour targets, it’s even harder to see where Kier gets a majority from than before.

    Quite respectable Green vote too, albeit just short of saving a deposit.

    Ed Davey is a clever politician, and much more astute than we have had for a while in the LDs. He seems to have got the show back on the road.

    He needs a good GE to keep up progress but is doing all the right things.
    Literally, given his position on balanced budgets...
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,577

    While there is some commentary on “tactical voting” isn’t the bigger picture former Tory voters voting LD? Whether they will continue to do so or return to the Tories is the big unknown for the GE - if Johnson is still leading, then the chances are they may not return.

    The question for me is will enough of the switchers stay switched and will that, combined with any tactical voting, be enough to get the Tories out next time? I hope so but I’m not confident.

    English voters will be subject to scare stories at the next GE of a potential unholy alliance of Lab/LD/SNP. That may work to round up enough potential switchers back to the Blue team.

    But is that enough now to scare the horses? Sturgeon’s had a good pandemic, she has good ratings in England, doesn’t she?
    Yes.

    ‘Nicola Sturgeon is England's favourite political leader, poll finds’

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/19024068.nicola-sturgeon-englands-favourite-political-leader-poll-finds/
    Indeed, she seems more popular South of the border than North of it at times!.
  • What excellent news to wake up to this morning :smile:

    F**k Boris! :D:D
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,340

    What excellent news to wake up to this morning :smile:

    F**k Boris! :D:D

    I wouldn't have thought he was your type, given you are an intelligent and sophisticated person, but then he does seem to try and f**k just about every woman he meets...
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    moonshine said:

    Also with respect the next general and to all the Starmer fanboys. Does it not concern you that Labour were second in this seat in 2019, well ahead of the third place Liberals. And yet the swing Tory voters needed for a Labour majority flipped so comprehensively Liberal?

    Looking back, the Cleggasm year was the only time Labour didn’t finish second since 1992! You may say that this was not a Labour target seat and you’d be right. But with Scotland firmly SNP, the Red Wall a recovery job and seats like this now Lib Dem rather Labour targets, it’s even harder to see where Kier gets a majority from than before.

    He can’t get a majority without Scotland anyway. The optimal outcome for Starmer is a minority govt with the LD’s. Given that floating centre right types are no longer frightened of voting LD lest they get Corbyn this is a great result for Starmer.

    Am I doing this right?
This discussion has been closed.