There must be dancing in the streets....beautiful weather great culture and good food isn't everything. This could be the beginning of the end of Johnson and the UK's pariah status which I'm afraid I'm seeing here (very moderately) in the last few days.
It's incredible Roger. Only last night our neighbours decorated their garden with lights in anticipation of the result.
As Mike points out in the header, Labour haven’t gained a seat from the Tories at a by-election since Corby in 2012.
The public aren’t happy with the government, but they’re not convinced by Labour. Yet.
What would a terrible result have looked like?
Losing the seat to Labour.
Which was eminently possible as I kept saying. Labour won 17k votes here only a couple of years ago. Getting those 17k out to give the government a mid-term kicking, which is basically what the Lib Dems have done instead, would have seen Labour gain the seat. But they didn't bother, so instead its the Lib Dems winning here.
No, it was never possible.
And it isn't what the LibDems have done. Some people always vote, some people only vote in national elections, some people only vote in GEs. There is some movement depending on the campaign and the GOTV efforts by the parties, but it's at the margins - the idea that in an election all of one side's vote turns out and the other's doesnt is for the birds.
As Mike points out in the header, Labour haven’t gained a seat from the Tories at a by-election since Corby in 2012.
The public aren’t happy with the government, but they’re not convinced by Labour. Yet.
What would a terrible result have looked like?
Losing the seat to Labour.
Which was eminently possible as I kept saying. Labour won 17k votes here only a couple of years ago. Getting those 17k out to give the government a mid-term kicking, which is basically what the Lib Dems have done instead, would have seen Labour gain the seat. But they didn't bother, so instead its the Lib Dems winning here.
Not sure they didn't bother - what it shows is the Lib Dems are the recipients of Con protest votes, rarely Labour - and the question is whether they stick with the Lib Dems or return to the Tories at the GE.
As Mike points out in the header, Labour haven’t gained a seat from the Tories at a by-election since Corby in 2012.
The public aren’t happy with the government, but they’re not convinced by Labour. Yet.
What? Whistling in the dark. It is an unmitigated rout. Life long Tories are utterly furious. The PMs own missteps have created a defeat of historic proportions. Ignore this final warning and the Conservatives are heading for a sellacking that could dwarf 1997.
As Mike points out in the header, Labour haven’t gained a seat from the Tories at a by-election since Corby in 2012.
The public aren’t happy with the government, but they’re not convinced by Labour. Yet.
You think that the absolute collapse of the Tory vote in a seat they have held since 1906 is somehow good for the party?
Labour cannot win a majority without Scotland. So they need the LDs to take as many seats off the Tories as possible. That they could pull this off by such a large margin puts scores of seats into play.
The more LD seats, the fewer Tory votes that the Starmer government needs to beat.
If the Lib Dems are in with a chance of winning seats like this at the GE, why are they on 10% in the polls?
The Lib Dems win by-elections. They chuck the kitchen sink at them. They are a protest vote.
Look at Old Bexley and Sidcup. When the Lib Dems aren’t interested, the Tories win.
While there is some commentary on “tactical voting” isn’t the bigger picture former Tory voters voting LD? Whether they will continue to do so or return to the Tories is the big unknown for the GE - if Johnson is still leading, then the chances are they may not return.
The question for me is will enough of the switchers stay switched and will that, combined with any tactical voting, be enough to get the Tories out next time? I hope so but I’m not confident.
English voters will be subject to scare stories at the next GE of a potential unholy alliance of Lab/LD/SNP. That may work to round up enough potential switchers back to the Blue team.
But is that enough now to scare the horses? Sturgeon’s had a good pandemic, she has good ratings in England, doesn’t she?
Yes.
‘Nicola Sturgeon is England's favourite political leader, poll finds’
While there is some commentary on “tactical voting” isn’t the bigger picture former Tory voters voting LD? Whether they will continue to do so or return to the Tories is the big unknown for the GE - if Johnson is still leading, then the chances are they may not return.
The question for me is will enough of the switchers stay switched and will that, combined with any tactical voting, be enough to get the Tories out next time? I hope so but I’m not confident.
English voters will be subject to scare stories at the next GE of a potential unholy alliance of Lab/LD/SNP. That may work to round up enough potential switchers back to the Blue team.
But is that enough now to scare the horses? Sturgeon’s had a good pandemic, she has good ratings in England, doesn’t she?
Yes.
‘Nicola Sturgeon is England's favourite political leader, poll finds’
Indeed, she seems more popular South of the border than North of it at times!.
I have often thought that if the Scots want independence, they should hold the referendum south of the border
Certainly will not be one while Sturgeon is on the throne, she wants Baw Jaws backing for some fancy sinecure abroad so will be lots of bluster but no rocking the boat. She has to get her fancy post before covid is over or she will be out of excuses.
Forget North Shropshire, the Tories should really worry about Labour backing electoral reform Starmer has yet to decide, but the next Labour manifesto may repeat Corbyn’s pledge to review the electoral system
What’s fascinating about the shift towards PR is that it is uniting both the left of the party and its “centrists”. Historically, both used to hate the idea.
… it would harness the demographic shift that has seen Labour make inroads across the South in recent years, a change that got less attention than “Red Wall” headlines but could prove as tectonic.
PR would mean there would never be a Labour majority government again. Labour would also likely see its Corbynite wing split off under PR while ReformUK would win seats too. It would change politics completely
As Labour have only seen 31 years in Government post war I am not entirely sure that is going to be too much of a sell.
What an extraordinary result. Many congratulations to the LibDems. They did a brilliant job.
Also worth noting that the combined LibDem, Labour and Green vote yesterday was 23,000 on a 46% turnout, when it was 20,000 on a 68% turnout just a couple of years ago.
For me, this says that the data point to look out for in opinion polling is the Tory number. Recent scores on that front foretold the North Shropshire result.
Forget North Shropshire, the Tories should really worry about Labour backing electoral reform Starmer has yet to decide, but the next Labour manifesto may repeat Corbyn’s pledge to review the electoral system
What’s fascinating about the shift towards PR is that it is uniting both the left of the party and its “centrists”. Historically, both used to hate the idea.
… it would harness the demographic shift that has seen Labour make inroads across the South in recent years, a change that got less attention than “Red Wall” headlines but could prove as tectonic.
PR would mean there would never be a Labour majority government again. Labour would also likely see its Corbynite wing split off under PR while ReformUK would win seats too. It would change politics completely
As Labour have only seen 31 years in Government post war I am not entirely sure that is going to be too much of a sell.
And 11 of those were under Blair, who, as any full knows, was really a Tory.
What wonderful news to wake up to. Happy political moments have been vanishingly rare for me in recent years.
I wonder if NS shows that there is more than one type of Brexit vote. This is a traditional, livestock dominated, rural marches seat. Classically conservative, but very different from Hartlepool or Mansfield. Brexit may have become much less salient in Shropshire (and Herefordshire, Somerset, Devon) but perhaps it and the culture wars still retain their power in places further North and East.
I grew up in the Marches and it was never a hotbed of anti immigrant sentiment or wartime nostalgia. But it was also deeply unimpressed by metropolitan types.
To use a French analogy, the sort of place that might happily vote for Pecresse but not Le Pen. As those presidential maps show across the livestock farming regions across the Massif Central.
A great post. I think there three main groupings: "Singapore-on-Thames" - the hard right low tax low regulation state where the plebs get to work long hours in unsafe conditions for the betterment of their masters "Mercantile Britain" - lets be freed from restrictions about how we farm / fish / make stuff so that we can be more competitive "Workers Collective of Britain" - better jobs with better pay and conditions for me, flag and country patriotism
The first group and the third group are directly contradictory. The plebs that the John Redwoods of the world want to exploit with Brexit are the workers who expect to be paid more and treated better by the likes of John Redwood thanks to Brexit.
And the Mercantilers in the middle just want to make, sell, do. They wanted rid of the perceived red tape of the EU and things like the CAP and CFP.
Are any of these groups happy now? Higher taxes all round, a temporary spike in wages for a few small groups and everyone else feeling worse off, and mountains of red tape making even what they made / grew / sold before more expensive and harder.
I can't see how anyone can pull together a 2024 Brexit coalition from the ashes of the burnt promises of Boris's Oven-ready Brexit deal.
As Mike points out in the header, Labour haven’t gained a seat from the Tories at a by-election since Corby in 2012.
The public aren’t happy with the government, but they’re not convinced by Labour. Yet.
What would a terrible result have looked like?
Losing the seat to Labour.
Which was eminently possible as I kept saying. Labour won 17k votes here only a couple of years ago. Getting those 17k out to give the government a mid-term kicking, which is basically what the Lib Dems have done instead, would have seen Labour gain the seat. But they didn't bother, so instead its the Lib Dems winning here.
Interesting argument. But why am I thinking of my washing machine on spin cycle?
Forget North Shropshire, the Tories should really worry about Labour backing electoral reform Starmer has yet to decide, but the next Labour manifesto may repeat Corbyn’s pledge to review the electoral system
What’s fascinating about the shift towards PR is that it is uniting both the left of the party and its “centrists”. Historically, both used to hate the idea.
… it would harness the demographic shift that has seen Labour make inroads across the South in recent years, a change that got less attention than “Red Wall” headlines but could prove as tectonic.
PR would mean there would never be a Labour majority government again. Labour would also likely see its Corbynite wing split off under PR while ReformUK would win seats too. It would change politics completely
As Labour have only seen 31 years in Government post war I am not entirely sure that is going to be too much of a sell.
And 11 of those were under Blair, who, as any full knows, was really a Tory.
He wasn’t. They say that because he won and Labour members hate winners
As Mike points out in the header, Labour haven’t gained a seat from the Tories at a by-election since Corby in 2012.
The public aren’t happy with the government, but they’re not convinced by Labour. Yet.
You think that the absolute collapse of the Tory vote in a seat they have held since 1906 is somehow good for the party?
Labour cannot win a majority without Scotland. So they need the LDs to take as many seats off the Tories as possible. That they could pull this off by such a large margin puts scores of seats into play.
The more LD seats, the fewer Tory votes that the Starmer government needs to beat.
Its a midterm by-election. Governments don't win midterm by-elections. I've been saying that for ages, which is why I had money on this result.
Doesn't change the next election result one iota.
17k votes wasn't enough for Labour to win the seat in 2017 and it won't be enough for the Lib Dems to hold it in 2024 either.
6 government defence by-elections in 2001-2005 parliament Government won 4 of them.
9 government defence by-elections in 1997-2001 parliament Government won 9 of them
It looks like if they are going to win the next General election then they do. Even in the 2005-10 parliament Labour won half it's by-elections it was defending.
I've sent in so many negative LF test results recently that my phone now auto-fills the tick boxes. Mrs RP still showing a faint positive but is bright and cheery this morning.
Good news and pleased for her. Does this mean that vaccines do work then? (Innocent face...)
In terms of reducing the impact of the virus on most people - absolutely! Which is why we need to get as many people jabbed as we can. Doesn't mean she wasn't proper ill for days (and my daughter the same the week before) and some unlucky sods are still going to ICU and dying.
Forget North Shropshire, the Tories should really worry about Labour backing electoral reform Starmer has yet to decide, but the next Labour manifesto may repeat Corbyn’s pledge to review the electoral system
What’s fascinating about the shift towards PR is that it is uniting both the left of the party and its “centrists”. Historically, both used to hate the idea.
… it would harness the demographic shift that has seen Labour make inroads across the South in recent years, a change that got less attention than “Red Wall” headlines but could prove as tectonic.
PR would mean there would never be a Labour majority government again. Labour would also likely see its Corbynite wing split off under PR while ReformUK would win seats too. It would change politics completely
As Labour have only seen 31 years in Government post war I am not entirely sure that is going to be too much of a sell.
Many Labour members would be happy to live in a more pluralist system, and pressure to back reform from constituency parties is considerable. However, union bosses highly value their chance to influence Labour governments directly, even if the chance only comes along once in their career, and it's the unions that are the obstacle to Labour adopting a more mature position.
As Mike points out in the header, Labour haven’t gained a seat from the Tories at a by-election since Corby in 2012.
The public aren’t happy with the government, but they’re not convinced by Labour. Yet.
You think that the absolute collapse of the Tory vote in a seat they have held since 1906 is somehow good for the party?
Labour cannot win a majority without Scotland. So they need the LDs to take as many seats off the Tories as possible. That they could pull this off by such a large margin puts scores of seats into play.
The more LD seats, the fewer Tory votes that the Starmer government needs to beat.
If the Lib Dems are in with a chance of winning seats like this at the GE, why are they on 10% in the polls?
The Lib Dems win by-elections. They chuck the kitchen sink at them. They are a protest vote.
Look at Old Bexley and Sidcup. When the Lib Dems aren’t interested, the Tories win.
Look at the Tory number in the opinion polls. That's the one that matters. The priority for a lot of voters will be to remove a Tory MP if they get a chance. That may well involve a different choice to the one they would make in an abstract scenario.
Frosty the No Man turns out to be all fart and no follow through, again.
Britain has formally dropped its demand that Europe’s highest court should have no legal role in the controversial Northern Ireland protocol.
In a key concession to Brussels Lord Frost, the Brexit minister, will tell his EU counterpart today that Britain now accepts that the European Court of Justice (ECJ) must be allowed to interpret the protocol of the Brexit agreement.
will not be long till Phillip T is on claiming what a great victory was won , how sovereign and great Britain is and those damn Europeans know we hold all the cards.
North Shropshire voted Brexit (unlike Chesham & Amersham). The PM’s 2019 electoral sweep came by uniting Brexit backers. Since then he’s ‘delivered Brexit’. And yet a Leave constituency just gave No 10 a bloody nose. That will be a worry. https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1471755193838706690
Forget North Shropshire, the Tories should really worry about Labour backing electoral reform Starmer has yet to decide, but the next Labour manifesto may repeat Corbyn’s pledge to review the electoral system
What’s fascinating about the shift towards PR is that it is uniting both the left of the party and its “centrists”. Historically, both used to hate the idea.
… it would harness the demographic shift that has seen Labour make inroads across the South in recent years, a change that got less attention than “Red Wall” headlines but could prove as tectonic.
PR would mean there would never be a Labour majority government again. Labour would also likely see its Corbynite wing split off under PR while ReformUK would win seats too. It would change politics completely
As Labour have only seen 31 years in Government post war I am not entirely sure that is going to be too much of a sell.
And 11 of those were under Blair, who, as any full knows, was really a Tory.
He wasn’t. They say that because he won and Labour members hate winners
They should be very happy with their current leadership then 😉
Oh well, sounds like it’s the Christmas party cancellation season getting into full swing.
My wife’s company brunch ‘do’ binned this morning at three hours’ notice, after one of her colleagues tested positive overnight. Hopefully wifey and the rest of her company are all negative.
Cue Philip demanding that they all go anyway. Perhaps the positive colleague could do some snogging whilst there - likely feels dreadful right now and not up for party party. But its her patriotic duty to infect as many of her colleagues as possible.
Average Tory -> Labour by-election swing in this Parliament is now... +1.8%
(Aside: The collapse on the Tory vote share in North Shropshire was so large that the Tory -> Labour swing was nearly as large in NS - 9.4% - as in OB&S - 10.2%)
The new MP read history at Trinity College, Cambridge.
I read detective novels philosophy at Trinity College, Cambridge.
Does anyone know when Ms Morgan, née Halcrow was at Trinity?
She’s 46 so she’d have started in 1992 or 1993 depending on gap years etc
I'm 46 and started uni in 1994.
Depends on when in the year her birthday is; i.e. academic years. Someone born before the end of August would be expected, gap years ignored, to be at Uni the year before someone born after September 1st.
Though Cambridge isn’t too fussy - I was born in early September and still started there in the year of my 18th birthday (I’d skipped a year of primary school and carried that all the way through).
Doing that isn't easy in the State school system AIUI, which can result, of course, in the early years. in children born in August 'competing' in class with children born almost a year earlier. OK for the brightest, but can be a problem for those not so fortunate.
Indeed. I believe it’s practically impossible now - at Mrs Capitano’s school there are several kids who’d benefit both socially and academically from changing year (whether up or down), but a system geared towards SATs and league tables is never going to allow that.
I have a great-nephew, born in August, who would definitely be helped if he could. One of my granddaughters, in another country, whose birthday is late August was quietly forgotten about, school-wise to two or three days. Consequently she's fine.
Our youngest's birthday is in early September, but she's still one of the shortest in her year, possibly the shortest. If she'd been born 9 days earlier and been in the year above she would be absolutely tiny for her year, like her older sister, who's birthday is in late July. Some quirk of genetics has made all our kids really tiny, despite my wife and I both being average height. Academically being a summer baby hasn't harmed my oldest, but I think my youngest has definitely benefited from being the oldest in her year.
There must be dancing in the streets....beautiful weather great culture and good food isn't everything. This could be the beginning of the end of Johnson and the UK's pariah status which I'm afraid I'm seeing here (very moderately) in the last few days.
I've never been so disappointed with pb in my life. This is electrifying, hilarious and profitable news, so unexpected that even ogh was wary of calling it LD, and we are getting Typical mid term election crap and a discussion about birth date relative to school year. It's like hearing about Hillary's achievement and saying Yeah, it's not like he did K2 on the same day is it?
As Mike points out in the header, Labour haven’t gained a seat from the Tories at a by-election since Corby in 2012.
The public aren’t happy with the government, but they’re not convinced by Labour. Yet.
You think that the absolute collapse of the Tory vote in a seat they have held since 1906 is somehow good for the party?
Labour cannot win a majority without Scotland. So they need the LDs to take as many seats off the Tories as possible. That they could pull this off by such a large margin puts scores of seats into play.
The more LD seats, the fewer Tory votes that the Starmer government needs to beat.
If the Lib Dems are in with a chance of winning seats like this at the GE, why are they on 10% in the polls?
The Lib Dems win by-elections. They chuck the kitchen sink at them. They are a protest vote.
Look at Old Bexley and Sidcup. When the Lib Dems aren’t interested, the Tories win.
Look at the Tory number in the opinion polls. That's the one that matters. The priority for a lot of voters will be to remove a Tory MP if they get a chance. That may well involve a different choice to the one they would make in an abstract scenario.
Yep! Never forget there are 17,000,000 Remainers who haven't gone away. It's probably closer to 20,000,000 by now
As Mike points out in the header, Labour haven’t gained a seat from the Tories at a by-election since Corby in 2012.
The public aren’t happy with the government, but they’re not convinced by Labour. Yet.
You think that the absolute collapse of the Tory vote in a seat they have held since 1906 is somehow good for the party?
Labour cannot win a majority without Scotland. So they need the LDs to take as many seats off the Tories as possible. That they could pull this off by such a large margin puts scores of seats into play.
The more LD seats, the fewer Tory votes that the Starmer government needs to beat.
If the Lib Dems are in with a chance of winning seats like this at the GE, why are they on 10% in the polls?
The Lib Dems win by-elections. They chuck the kitchen sink at them. They are a protest vote.
Look at Old Bexley and Sidcup. When the Lib Dems aren’t interested, the Tories win.
Until the end of the Coalition the LDs were good at winning and holding seats at general elections. There are an awful lot of seats where its a LD challenge to the Tories, and many hundreds more where there is little point even running a candidate - hence the 10%.
Nah, Lib Dems win protest by-elections. It isn't news.
This result is about as meaningful as Brecon and Radnorshire, won by the Lib Dems a few months before the Tories won an 80 seat majority.
I think you’re wrong. Two new things are happening. The centre left anti Tory vote is energised and organised and the leaders of Labour and the LibDems are going after and successfully winning Tory voters.
It's no wonder Boris Johnson refused to accept his comms guy Jack Doyle's resignation. Dealing with afterparty fallout is one of Jack's specialities.
During his days as editor of the student paper at the University of Manchester, Jack hosted a gathering in the paper's offices. One that was subsequently investigated by alarmed student union staff after it was found that all the costly computers in the office had had their browsers set to an extremely explicit adult website – with a particular focus on bum-widening activities.
Sadly, we'll have to leave you to make your own massive arsehole joke. We have spam filters to consider.
North Shropshire voted Brexit (unlike Chesham & Amersham). The PM’s 2019 electoral sweep came by uniting Brexit backers. Since then he’s ‘delivered Brexit’. And yet a Leave constituency just gave No 10 a bloody nose. That will be a worry. https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1471755193838706690
Sounds like he was listening to John Curtice on 5 live.
What wonderful news to wake up to. Happy political moments have been vanishingly rare for me in recent years.
I wonder if NS shows that there is more than one type of Brexit vote. This is a traditional, livestock dominated, rural marches seat. Classically conservative, but very different from Hartlepool or Mansfield. Brexit may have become much less salient in Shropshire (and Herefordshire, Somerset, Devon) but perhaps it and the culture wars still retain their power in places further North and East.
I grew up in the Marches and it was never a hotbed of anti immigrant sentiment or wartime nostalgia. But it was also deeply unimpressed by metropolitan types.
To use a French analogy, the sort of place that might happily vote for Pecresse but not Le Pen. As those presidential maps show across the livestock farming regions across the Massif Central.
A great post. I think there three main groupings: "Singapore-on-Thames" - the hard right low tax low regulation state where the plebs get to work long hours in unsafe conditions for the betterment of their masters "Mercantile Britain" - lets be freed from restrictions about how we farm / fish / make stuff so that we can be more competitive "Workers Collective of Britain" - better jobs with better pay and conditions for me, flag and country patriotism
The first group and the third group are directly contradictory. The plebs that the John Redwoods of the world want to exploit with Brexit are the workers who expect to be paid more and treated better by the likes of John Redwood thanks to Brexit.
And the Mercantilers in the middle just want to make, sell, do. They wanted rid of the perceived red tape of the EU and things like the CAP and CFP.
Are any of these groups happy now? Higher taxes all round, a temporary spike in wages for a few small groups and everyone else feeling worse off, and mountains of red tape making even what they made / grew / sold before more expensive and harder.
I can't see how anyone can pull together a 2024 Brexit coalition from the ashes of the burnt promises of Boris's Oven-ready Brexit deal.
I think this is quite an astute post in terms of the categorisations, at least as far as an economic division of Brexit goes. I would fall firmly into the second category and yes I am very happy with Brexit. It is not perfect but then only fools expect perfection. But it still beats what we had before by a very long way.
As Mike points out in the header, Labour haven’t gained a seat from the Tories at a by-election since Corby in 2012.
The public aren’t happy with the government, but they’re not convinced by Labour. Yet.
What would a terrible result have looked like?
Losing the seat to Labour.
Which was eminently possible as I kept saying. Labour won 17k votes here only a couple of years ago. Getting those 17k out to give the government a mid-term kicking, which is basically what the Lib Dems have done instead, would have seen Labour gain the seat. But they didn't bother, so instead its the Lib Dems winning here.
Interesting argument. But why am I thinking of my washing machine on spin cycle?
Philip is right.
Government’s don’t lose elections, oppositions won them.
That Labour isn’t winning by-elections from the Tories isn’t proof that the Tories will won the next election, but it tells us that we are not in 1994-97 territory at the moment.
North Shropshire shows that current Tory numbers in opinion polls are accurate and also shows what those numbers mean for the Tories at a general election if they continue.
I wouldn't have thought he was your type, given you are an intelligent and sophisticated person, but then he does seem to try and f**k just about every woman he meets...
Nah, Lib Dems win protest by-elections. It isn't news.
This result is about as meaningful as Brecon and Radnorshire, won by the Lib Dems a few months before the Tories won an 80 seat majority.
I hope and believe that you are wrong. The Emperor is now naked (hmm, horrible image in this instance) and everyone can now see it. Johnson is (should be?) toast.
As Mike points out in the header, Labour haven’t gained a seat from the Tories at a by-election since Corby in 2012.
The public aren’t happy with the government, but they’re not convinced by Labour. Yet.
What would a terrible result have looked like?
Losing the seat to Labour.
Which was eminently possible as I kept saying. Labour won 17k votes here only a couple of years ago. Getting those 17k out to give the government a mid-term kicking, which is basically what the Lib Dems have done instead, would have seen Labour gain the seat. But they didn't bother, so instead its the Lib Dems winning here.
Not sure they didn't bother - what it shows is the Lib Dems are the recipients of Con protest votes, rarely Labour - and the question is whether they stick with the Lib Dems or return to the Tories at the GE.
It is very clear that when they have to cast their votes, many customary Conservative voters feel let down and betrayed by this government. Never mind what opinion polls say - they are long-term generalisations.
The Lib Dems are in general trustworthy, reliable, competent and honest - and they didn't frighten the horses when they were part of the coalition government. In fact, they do say that Cameron found them much less of a problem than his own extremist MPs. So lots and lots of decent Conservatives have no fear about voting Lib Dem instead.
The problem that some of our PB Tories have is that they believe that the Tory leadership can do whatever it likes, and previous Conservative voters will go along with it. (Very sorry, young HY.....) The Conservative Party has no hope at all of winning these people back until it clears out all the incompetents, the crooks and the chancers - in fact most of the Cabinet. I am not sure they are prepared to do this.
Genuine earthquake in #NorthShropshire, with huge swing to Lib Dems. And as @EdwardJDavey told @BBCr4today, that was despite an energetic local Labour campaign. Suggests voters don't need parties to 'go easy' on each other to work out which way to vote tactically.
I can't see how anyone can pull together a 2024 Brexit coalition from the ashes of the burnt promises of Boris's Oven-ready Brexit deal.
This is the key, and also why the Brexiteers keep saying Brexit is over.
What they mean is "Please, please, please stop talking about Brexit in case anyone actually looks at what a steaming pile of crap it is"
None of my identified 3 groups are happy. The Singaporers have got MORE taxes not less, the Msercantilers have more cost and faff than ever, and the Workers Collective have less money than they had before. Even then "jam tomorrow" dog whistles like "we'll get rid of the ECJ" are falling apart because no we won't.
I can't see how anyone can pull together a 2024 Brexit coalition from the ashes of the burnt promises of Boris's Oven-ready Brexit deal.
This is the key, and also why the Brexiteers keep saying Brexit is over.
What they mean is "Please, please, please stop talking about Brexit in case anyone actually looks at what a steaming pile of crap it is"
None of my identified 3 groups are happy. The Singaporers have got MORE taxes not less, the Msercantilers have more cost and faff than ever, and the Workers Collective have less money than they had before. Even then "jam tomorrow" dog whistles like "we'll get rid of the ECJ" are falling apart because no we won't.
Whats left? Yosemite?
What does John Muir have to do with Mr Johnson's little schemes?
While there is some commentary on “tactical voting” isn’t the bigger picture former Tory voters voting LD? Whether they will continue to do so or return to the Tories is the big unknown for the GE - if Johnson is still leading, then the chances are they may not return.
The question for me is will enough of the switchers stay switched and will that, combined with any tactical voting, be enough to get the Tories out next time? I hope so but I’m not confident.
English voters will be subject to scare stories at the next GE of a potential unholy alliance of Lab/LD/SNP. That may work to round up enough potential switchers back to the Blue team.
But is that enough now to scare the horses? Sturgeon’s had a good pandemic, she has good ratings in England, doesn’t she?
Yes.
‘Nicola Sturgeon is England's favourite political leader, poll finds’
This is a wonderful website with many posters very knowledgeable about politics.
Yet despite that knowledge, all posters proved completely hopeless at predicting this by-election result.
And if they can't get anywhere near predicting a by-election result, we can say for certain they have no chance whatsoever of predicting what will happen with Covid - a subject they know far less about than politics.
Yet very soon they'll be back on here pontificating with great confidence about how Covid should be handled.
@Philip_Thompson called it right. I backed LD at 11/10 for admittedly 10 notes.
Forget North Shropshire, the Tories should really worry about Labour backing electoral reform Starmer has yet to decide, but the next Labour manifesto may repeat Corbyn’s pledge to review the electoral system
What’s fascinating about the shift towards PR is that it is uniting both the left of the party and its “centrists”. Historically, both used to hate the idea.
… it would harness the demographic shift that has seen Labour make inroads across the South in recent years, a change that got less attention than “Red Wall” headlines but could prove as tectonic.
PR would mean there would never be a Labour majority government again. Labour would also likely see its Corbynite wing split off under PR while ReformUK would win seats too. It would change politics completely
As Labour have only seen 31 years in Government post war I am not entirely sure that is going to be too much of a sell.
Many Labour members would be happy to live in a more pluralist system, and pressure to back reform from constituency parties is considerable. However, union bosses highly value their chance to influence Labour governments directly, even if the chance only comes along once in their career, and it's the unions that are the obstacle to Labour adopting a more mature position.
If the Conservatives don't recover from Johnson there is an opportunity to change that. The union baron funding of Labour works as badly for them as patronage payments to the Conservatives also do for Labour. Publicly funded limited ceiling campaigns must be the way forward. Johnson has so brought the current corrupt system into disrepute so that should be another easy sell.
Anyhoo I feel much more confident on my wager with a friend that Boris Johnson's tenure will be shorter than David Cameron.
I'm regretting I didn't go for a tenure shorter than Theresa May's.
I don't expect a VONC this week.
Hard to see how there isn't one in January now.
Any thoughts on what margin of victory he needs to survive (in the real world)? I would say if 110 vote against him he's going to have to throw in the towel.
To be honest, I'm expecting a VONC after the locals or if he tries to for another lockdown.
As I've stated a few times this week, if the VONC is called before you 100% know the VONC goes against Boris, the Tories are then stuck with Boris for a whole year.
No sane MP is going to rush a VONC having seen what happened in December 2018.
No sane Tory MP.... How many votes are needed to call it ?
Brexit and woke was mentioned above. Brexit works for the Tories now in reverse as their Brexit deal is repeatedly punching people in the bollocks whilst the ideologues say "now we're free of the EU they have finally stopped punching you in the bollocks"
And woke? How can you have a culture war, claiming that the other is threatening your traditional British values whilst you corruptly hand vast contracts to your mates with no tender and go the UN to talk to the world about how Kermit the Frog mistreated Miss Piggy?
Yes its a byelection, yes people vote tactically and yes the kind of LibDem army have seen won't be repeated. But - look at all the seats which are similar to NS where the LDs are a lot closer than they were here in 2nd. Wouldn't need a 34% swing to remove various big name Tories...
I suspect that you are reading too much into this. I doubt that the vote had anything much to do with either Brexit or the broader, tedious landscape of culture wars.
The key factor is that the Prime Minister is useless and people, even in traditional Tory areas, are getting sick of him. That, and fatigue with the slog of this interminable pandemic.
Thats literally my point. For weeks the defence has been "this is a Brexit seat, they won't vote for remoaners." Yes they will - Brexit works in reverse now for many, especially in farming and fishing areas.
And its been "the LibDems are too woke for traditional Tories". As you point out, with a PM this useless how can they try and portray the other as the threat to their traditional British values?
Ed Davey on the radio 3 minutes ago saying it was nothing to do with Brexit...
And he's right - the "its a leaver seat they won't vote for remainers" defence no longer exists. People vote on the issues now, not on a referendum 5 and a half years ago.
For the next GE, certainly if the incumbent is still in charge, we should expect the govt to recreate the Brexit issue, so they are not voting about something in the past, but on current issues that are a proxy/continuation of Brexit.
Perhaps. Their problem is that people will vote for a proxy issue when things are fine. "We want sovereignty" is an easy argument in good times. But I can't see many people opting for some kind of continuity Brexit war, where a principle they don;t understand is to be demanded as more worthy of their focus than the real issues and experiences of their lives..
Besides which, 5 years after Brexit was achieved would people have to be asked to wait another 5 years to finally achieve their goals? And which goals are those - Singapore-on-Thames or the Workers Collective?
As a principle the idea of "reclaiming sovereignty" is a valid one. In today's interconnected world a curious one to hold but valid nevertheless.
However as we said at the time the nearest to true sovereignty is to be found in North Korea. A global pariah.
So when all is said and done many people are realising that the concept alone is worthless (and we were always sovereign, obvs).
What wonderful news to wake up to. Happy political moments have been vanishingly rare for me in recent years.
I wonder if NS shows that there is more than one type of Brexit vote. This is a traditional, livestock dominated, rural marches seat. Classically conservative, but very different from Hartlepool or Mansfield. Brexit may have become much less salient in Shropshire (and Herefordshire, Somerset, Devon) but perhaps it and the culture wars still retain their power in places further North and East.
I grew up in the Marches and it was never a hotbed of anti immigrant sentiment or wartime nostalgia. But it was also deeply unimpressed by metropolitan types.
To use a French analogy, the sort of place that might happily vote for Pecresse but not Le Pen. As those presidential maps show across the livestock farming regions across the Massif Central.
A great post. I think there three main groupings: "Singapore-on-Thames" - the hard right low tax low regulation state where the plebs get to work long hours in unsafe conditions for the betterment of their masters "Mercantile Britain" - lets be freed from restrictions about how we farm / fish / make stuff so that we can be more competitive "Workers Collective of Britain" - better jobs with better pay and conditions for me, flag and country patriotism
The first group and the third group are directly contradictory. The plebs that the John Redwoods of the world want to exploit with Brexit are the workers who expect to be paid more and treated better by the likes of John Redwood thanks to Brexit.
And the Mercantilers in the middle just want to make, sell, do. They wanted rid of the perceived red tape of the EU and things like the CAP and CFP.
Are any of these groups happy now? Higher taxes all round, a temporary spike in wages for a few small groups and everyone else feeling worse off, and mountains of red tape making even what they made / grew / sold before more expensive and harder.
I can't see how anyone can pull together a 2024 Brexit coalition from the ashes of the burnt promises of Boris's Oven-ready Brexit deal.
I think this is quite an astute post in terms of the categorisations, at least as far as an economic division of Brexit goes. I would fall firmly into the second category and yes I am very happy with Brexit. It is not perfect but then only fools expect perfection. But it still beats what we had before by a very long way.
Appreciate the nod. Quick question on your place in the Mercantile group - are you one of the people who is actually doing the mercantiling? You have to work very very hard to find happy voices out there who actually produce and trade stuff. There undoubtedly are some, but few, and massively outweighed by those who think vast increases in red tape and cost and reduced worker numbers is a Bad Thing.
Nah, Lib Dems win protest by-elections. It isn't news.
This result is about as meaningful as Brecon and Radnorshire, won by the Lib Dems a few months before the Tories won an 80 seat majority.
I think you’re wrong. Two new things are happening. The centre left anti Tory vote is energised and organised and the leaders of Labour and the LibDems are going after and successfully winning Tory voters.
Oh really? What has the leader of Labour won?
The leader of the Lib Dems has won by-elections, as leaders of the Lib Dems have a great history of doing, but I must have slept through Labour winning Tory voters over. Which by-election did that occur in? Did Labour win Old Bexley when I wasn't looking?
LauraK: "Let's be plain: this is an appalling result for the Conservatives...this is a disaster"
"People on the ground say it is clear what happened...[the Downing Street video] is when support fell off a cliff"
"There are people in the Conservative Party who are pencilling in the possibility of a summer leadership election...there is no doubt this is a really dangerous moment for the PM"
What an extraordinary result. Many congratulations to the LibDems. They did a brilliant job.
Also worth noting that the combined LibDem, Labour and Green vote yesterday was 23,000 on a 46% turnout, when it was 20,000 on a 68% turnout just a couple of years ago.
For me, this says that the data point to look out for in opinion polling is the Tory number. Recent scores on that front foretold the North Shropshire result.
It's more than a 1,000 more votes than those three parties managed in 2017 too.
There's an opportunity for the opposition, but can they take it? And will someone get a grip of government and stop the self-inflicted political injuries?
What wonderful news to wake up to. Happy political moments have been vanishingly rare for me in recent years.
I wonder if NS shows that there is more than one type of Brexit vote. This is a traditional, livestock dominated, rural marches seat. Classically conservative, but very different from Hartlepool or Mansfield. Brexit may have become much less salient in Shropshire (and Herefordshire, Somerset, Devon) but perhaps it and the culture wars still retain their power in places further North and East.
I grew up in the Marches and it was never a hotbed of anti immigrant sentiment or wartime nostalgia. But it was also deeply unimpressed by metropolitan types.
To use a French analogy, the sort of place that might happily vote for Pecresse but not Le Pen. As those presidential maps show across the livestock farming regions across the Massif Central.
A great post. I think there three main groupings: "Singapore-on-Thames" - the hard right low tax low regulation state where the plebs get to work long hours in unsafe conditions for the betterment of their masters "Mercantile Britain" - lets be freed from restrictions about how we farm / fish / make stuff so that we can be more competitive "Workers Collective of Britain" - better jobs with better pay and conditions for me, flag and country patriotism
The first group and the third group are directly contradictory. The plebs that the John Redwoods of the world want to exploit with Brexit are the workers who expect to be paid more and treated better by the likes of John Redwood thanks to Brexit.
And the Mercantilers in the middle just want to make, sell, do. They wanted rid of the perceived red tape of the EU and things like the CAP and CFP.
Are any of these groups happy now? Higher taxes all round, a temporary spike in wages for a few small groups and everyone else feeling worse off, and mountains of red tape making even what they made / grew / sold before more expensive and harder.
I can't see how anyone can pull together a 2024 Brexit coalition from the ashes of the burnt promises of Boris's Oven-ready Brexit deal.
I think this is quite an astute post in terms of the categorisations, at least as far as an economic division of Brexit goes. I would fall firmly into the second category and yes I am very happy with Brexit. It is not perfect but then only fools expect perfection. But it still beats what we had before by a very long way.
That's interesting because I would have thought if anything it's group 2 who would have most reason for disappointment, given the reams of new red tape that have been created.
Nah, Lib Dems win protest by-elections. It isn't news.
This result is about as meaningful as Brecon and Radnorshire, won by the Lib Dems a few months before the Tories won an 80 seat majority.
You don't feel that the Tories were, 'ow you say, sclerotic in NS?
I said if I were a voter in NS that I'd be voting Lib Dem in this by-election, I've been saying for ages that the Lib Dems would win it. Last night I was cheering on the Lib Dems, even for the first time using this emoji: 🔶
But lets not kid ourselves that a by-election kicking means anything in the big picture.
As Mike points out in the header, Labour haven’t gained a seat from the Tories at a by-election since Corby in 2012.
The public aren’t happy with the government, but they’re not convinced by Labour. Yet.
What would a terrible result have looked like?
Losing the seat to Labour.
Which was eminently possible as I kept saying. Labour won 17k votes here only a couple of years ago. Getting those 17k out to give the government a mid-term kicking, which is basically what the Lib Dems have done instead, would have seen Labour gain the seat. But they didn't bother, so instead its the Lib Dems winning here.
Interesting argument. But why am I thinking of my washing machine on spin cycle?
Philip is right.
Government’s don’t lose elections, oppositions won them.
That Labour isn’t winning by-elections from the Tories isn’t proof that the Tories will won the next election, but it tells us that we are not in 1994-97 territory at the moment.
Between 1993-97 Labour gained three by-elections from the Tories and the LibDems gained four.
This is a wonderful website with many posters very knowledgeable about politics.
Yet despite that knowledge, all posters proved completely hopeless at predicting this by-election result.
And if they can't get anywhere near predicting a by-election result, we can say for certain they have no chance whatsoever of predicting what will happen with Covid - a subject they know far less about than politics.
Yet very soon they'll be back on here pontificating with great confidence about how Covid should be handled.
@Philip_Thompson called it right. I backed LD at 11/10 for admittedly 10 notes.
I don't bet but I did confidently predict a LD win (think I said LD 40, Con 35 and Lab 20).
Nah, Lib Dems win protest by-elections. It isn't news.
This result is about as meaningful as Brecon and Radnorshire, won by the Lib Dems a few months before the Tories won an 80 seat majority.
You don't feel that the Tories were, 'ow you say, sclerotic in NS?
I said if I were a voter in NS that I'd be voting Lib Dem in this by-election, I've been saying for ages that the Lib Dems would win it. Last night I was cheering on the Lib Dems, even for the first time using this emoji: 🔶
But lets not kid ourselves that a by-election kicking means anything in the big picture.
Oh well, sounds like it’s the Christmas party cancellation season getting into full swing.
My wife’s company brunch ‘do’ binned this morning at three hours’ notice, after one of her colleagues tested positive overnight. Hopefully wifey and the rest of her company are all negative.
Cue Philip demanding that they all go anyway. Perhaps the positive colleague could do some snogging whilst there - likely feels dreadful right now and not up for party party. But its her patriotic duty to infect as many of her colleagues as possible.
Thinking about that once again (briefly!), the combination of libertarians with explosively selfreplicating biological systems is not a happy one. Think of the libertarians who liberated rabbits or cane toads in Australia just because these individuals thought it a good idea. And then consider what happens if Ms Colleague turns out not to have covid-19 but ebola-22. Or if the dynamics of this new covid variant simply [edit] make the 'let it rip' argument otiose (for instance, if there is no cross immunity).
As Mike points out in the header, Labour haven’t gained a seat from the Tories at a by-election since Corby in 2012.
The public aren’t happy with the government, but they’re not convinced by Labour. Yet.
You think that the absolute collapse of the Tory vote in a seat they have held since 1906 is somehow good for the party?
Labour cannot win a majority without Scotland. So they need the LDs to take as many seats off the Tories as possible. That they could pull this off by such a large margin puts scores of seats into play.
The more LD seats, the fewer Tory votes that the Starmer government needs to beat.
The reek of Johnson is permeating the Tory brand in a way that we haven't seen since Thatcher. The future of Johnson is the future of the Tories. SKS is making the correct strategic decision leaning over backwards to appeal to Tory voters even if it isn't attractive to the the centre left. They are there for the taking.
Axe the buffoon now. In both the national and party interest there is no alternative if further damage is to be avoided.
Pussyfooting around and not throwing May overboard after her 2017 election debacle was a foolish mistake, and the PCP should finally learn how to take on board the lessons of recent times. They failed to do this when they opted for the clown when they had the perfect example of Corbyn, and if they waste time instead of bringing the hammer down on the fool's career now then they will simply repeat the mistake of 2017.
In a few months cold feet and other factors might make it so that the PM's career survives. And then there's a year long wait, which is mid-2023, at the earliest.
Stop pussyfooting around, Conservative MPs. For the sake of your own careers, your own party, *and* the country, show some ruthlessness and be rid of this incompetent.
Paterson following the full Cummings / Barnard Castle cycle.
First: CCHQ tells us that not only has their man done no wrong, he’s a victim, pursued by a vicious media. ‘Any family man would do the same’. 3-line whip on MPs to repeat this.
This is a wonderful website with many posters very knowledgeable about politics.
Yet despite that knowledge, all posters proved completely hopeless at predicting this by-election result.
And if they can't get anywhere near predicting a by-election result, we can say for certain they have no chance whatsoever of predicting what will happen with Covid - a subject they know far less about than politics.
Yet very soon they'll be back on here pontificating with great confidence about how Covid should be handled.
@Philip_Thompson called it right. I backed LD at 11/10 for admittedly 10 notes.
I don't bet but I did confidently predict a LD win (think I said LD 40, Con 35 and Lab 20).
"all posters proved completely hopeless at predicting this by-election result."
I said early on that Mike was right on this one and felt even more convinced during Partygate.
I did wobble a little on the day itself, but kept my bets.
I shall be picking up the price of a good curry when BF finally pay out.
I can't see how anyone can pull together a 2024 Brexit coalition from the ashes of the burnt promises of Boris's Oven-ready Brexit deal.
This is the key, and also why the Brexiteers keep saying Brexit is over.
What they mean is "Please, please, please stop talking about Brexit in case anyone actually looks at what a steaming pile of crap it is"
None of my identified 3 groups are happy. The Singaporers have got MORE taxes not less, the Msercantilers have more cost and faff than ever, and the Workers Collective have less money than they had before. Even then "jam tomorrow" dog whistles like "we'll get rid of the ECJ" are falling apart because no we won't.
Whats left? Yosemite?
Your Workers Collective have full employment and higher wages.
They also see new houses being built which will be bought by themselves or their kids.
Genuine earthquake in #NorthShropshire, with huge swing to Lib Dems. And as @EdwardJDavey told @BBCr4today, that was despite an energetic local Labour campaign. Suggests voters don't need parties to 'go easy' on each other to work out which way to vote tactically.
Also suggests it's a classic midterm protest vote rather than a wish for an alternative government.
There was a private eye cartoon after a Tory by election loss under Major of a German officer in the ruins of Berlin 1945 saying it's a classic midterm by election loss. Carry on though.
Forget North Shropshire, the Tories should really worry about Labour backing electoral reform Starmer has yet to decide, but the next Labour manifesto may repeat Corbyn’s pledge to review the electoral system
What’s fascinating about the shift towards PR is that it is uniting both the left of the party and its “centrists”. Historically, both used to hate the idea.
… it would harness the demographic shift that has seen Labour make inroads across the South in recent years, a change that got less attention than “Red Wall” headlines but could prove as tectonic.
PR would mean there would never be a Labour majority government again. Labour would also likely see its Corbynite wing split off under PR while ReformUK would win seats too. It would change politics completely
As Labour have only seen 31 years in Government post war I am not entirely sure that is going to be too much of a sell.
Many Labour members would be happy to live in a more pluralist system, and pressure to back reform from constituency parties is considerable. However, union bosses highly value their chance to influence Labour governments directly, even if the chance only comes along once in their career, and it's the unions that are the obstacle to Labour adopting a more mature position.
Indeed. Though I'm centre-right inclined, the level of control by political Trade Union Barons has long made it unconscionable for me to vote Labour.
Though living many years in the constituencies of Dennis the Menace Skinner and Geoff the Complete Hoon have hardly helped .
This is a wonderful website with many posters very knowledgeable about politics.
Yet despite that knowledge, all posters proved completely hopeless at predicting this by-election result.
And if they can't get anywhere near predicting a by-election result, we can say for certain they have no chance whatsoever of predicting what will happen with Covid - a subject they know far less about than politics.
Yet very soon they'll be back on here pontificating with great confidence about how Covid should be handled.
@Philip_Thompson called it right. I backed LD at 11/10 for admittedly 10 notes.
I don't bet but I did confidently predict a LD win (think I said LD 40, Con 35 and Lab 20).
Forget North Shropshire, the Tories should really worry about Labour backing electoral reform Starmer has yet to decide, but the next Labour manifesto may repeat Corbyn’s pledge to review the electoral system
What’s fascinating about the shift towards PR is that it is uniting both the left of the party and its “centrists”. Historically, both used to hate the idea.
… it would harness the demographic shift that has seen Labour make inroads across the South in recent years, a change that got less attention than “Red Wall” headlines but could prove as tectonic.
PR would mean there would never be a Labour majority government again. Labour would also likely see its Corbynite wing split off under PR while ReformUK would win seats too. It would change politics completely
As Labour have only seen 31 years in Government post war I am not entirely sure that is going to be too much of a sell.
Many Labour members would be happy to live in a more pluralist system, and pressure to back reform from constituency parties is considerable. However, union bosses highly value their chance to influence Labour governments directly, even if the chance only comes along once in their career, and it's the unions that are the obstacle to Labour adopting a more mature position.
Interestingly, UNITE's new leader - who I didn't vote for - probably cares less, as she's really not very interested in Labour politics. The unions blocked PR as they felt it was premature to embrace it, but Starmer would only have to convince half a dozen people to change that. That's the upside of the daft block vote system. The constituencies are overwhelmingly on board with a change.
What wonderful news to wake up to. Happy political moments have been vanishingly rare for me in recent years.
I wonder if NS shows that there is more than one type of Brexit vote. This is a traditional, livestock dominated, rural marches seat. Classically conservative, but very different from Hartlepool or Mansfield. Brexit may have become much less salient in Shropshire (and Herefordshire, Somerset, Devon) but perhaps it and the culture wars still retain their power in places further North and East.
I grew up in the Marches and it was never a hotbed of anti immigrant sentiment or wartime nostalgia. But it was also deeply unimpressed by metropolitan types.
To use a French analogy, the sort of place that might happily vote for Pecresse but not Le Pen. As those presidential maps show across the livestock farming regions across the Massif Central.
A great post. I think there three main groupings: "Singapore-on-Thames" - the hard right low tax low regulation state where the plebs get to work long hours in unsafe conditions for the betterment of their masters "Mercantile Britain" - lets be freed from restrictions about how we farm / fish / make stuff so that we can be more competitive "Workers Collective of Britain" - better jobs with better pay and conditions for me, flag and country patriotism
The first group and the third group are directly contradictory. The plebs that the John Redwoods of the world want to exploit with Brexit are the workers who expect to be paid more and treated better by the likes of John Redwood thanks to Brexit.
And the Mercantilers in the middle just want to make, sell, do. They wanted rid of the perceived red tape of the EU and things like the CAP and CFP.
Are any of these groups happy now? Higher taxes all round, a temporary spike in wages for a few small groups and everyone else feeling worse off, and mountains of red tape making even what they made / grew / sold before more expensive and harder.
I can't see how anyone can pull together a 2024 Brexit coalition from the ashes of the burnt promises of Boris's Oven-ready Brexit deal.
I think this is quite an astute post in terms of the categorisations, at least as far as an economic division of Brexit goes. I would fall firmly into the second category and yes I am very happy with Brexit. It is not perfect but then only fools expect perfection. But it still beats what we had before by a very long way.
That's interesting because I would have thought if anything it's group 2 who would have most reason for disappointment, given the reams of new red tape that have been created.
And a whole load of people just about to set off to or through France for winter sun, family visits or skiing holidays who know that they'd still have been allowed to go, pandemic or no, were it not for Brexit.
Tom Peck @tompeck · 1h I suppose what is actually historic is that it’s not merely Boris Johnson’s fault they lost the by-election, it’s also his fault they even had it.
As Mike points out in the header, Labour haven’t gained a seat from the Tories at a by-election since Corby in 2012.
The public aren’t happy with the government, but they’re not convinced by Labour. Yet.
You think that the absolute collapse of the Tory vote in a seat they have held since 1906 is somehow good for the party?
Labour cannot win a majority without Scotland. So they need the LDs to take as many seats off the Tories as possible. That they could pull this off by such a large margin puts scores of seats into play.
The more LD seats, the fewer Tory votes that the Starmer government needs to beat.
The reek of Johnson is permeating the Tory brand in a way that we haven't seen since Thatcher. The future of Johnson is the future of the Tories. SKS is making the correct strategic decision leaning over backwards to appeal to Tory voters even if it isn't attractive to the the centre left. They are there for the taking.
I think Johnson is potentially far more toxic than Thatcher. There is nothing beyond Johnson himself, whereas with Thatcher there was a coherent philosophy that did deliver meaningful results. Her personal popularity was never her selling point. It is all that Johnson has. And the problem is that he is what he is: a bone idle, lying, self-centred, chancer.
Axe the buffoon now. In both the national and party interest there is no alternative if further damage is to be avoided.
Pussyfooting around and not throwing May overboard after her 2017 election debacle was a foolish mistake, and the PCP should finally learn how to take on board the lessons of recent times. They failed to do this when they opted for the clown when they had the perfect example of Corbyn, and if they waste time instead of bringing the hammer down on the fool's career now then they will simply repeat the mistake of 2017.
In a few months cold feet and other factors might make it so that the PM's career survives. And then there's a year long wait, which is mid-2023, at the earliest.
Stop pussyfooting around, Conservative MPs. For the sake of your own careers, your own party, *and* the country, show some ruthlessness and be rid of this incompetent.
I don't think we need to worry about cold feet. What respite is there coming for Peppa? The Standards Commissioner is about to dig deep into flatgate, there are more bunga bunga party revelations coming, the scientists are now openly contradicting him in press conferences as Omicron demolishes people and businesses, investigations into PPE are pending, same with the handling of the pandemic. And for the mouth-foamers we can't stop migrants and we're caving into our own agreement/the EU over NI and the ECJ. And then that massive tax rise kicks in.
On the result, is LDs give govt a midterm kicking really big news?
Yes, because it comes in the middle of a scandal. You can point to other by elections all day long, but the level to which the public is engaged in this sort of thing, that narrative isn't going to reach them. It's a simple story:
Tory corruption and sleaze -> Tories lose -> Come in, number 55, time's up
While we obsessives pore over tables, the public's going to spend 10 seconds on this and come to the right conclusion.
Even Tory backbenchers who are deeply angry don't seem about to move, though, MD. Sir Roger Gale called it Boris' "second strike; three strikes and he's out..." There will be a pause for reflection. Of course our esteemed PM is quite capable of a third strike in the meantime...
As Mike points out in the header, Labour haven’t gained a seat from the Tories at a by-election since Corby in 2012.
The public aren’t happy with the government, but they’re not convinced by Labour. Yet.
What would a terrible result have looked like?
Losing the seat to Labour.
Which was eminently possible as I kept saying. Labour won 17k votes here only a couple of years ago. Getting those 17k out to give the government a mid-term kicking, which is basically what the Lib Dems have done instead, would have seen Labour gain the seat. But they didn't bother, so instead its the Lib Dems winning here.
Interesting argument. But why am I thinking of my washing machine on spin cycle?
Philip is right.
Government’s don’t lose elections, oppositions won them.
That Labour isn’t winning by-elections from the Tories isn’t proof that the Tories will won the next election, but it tells us that we are not in 1994-97 territory at the moment.
Between 1993-97 Labour gained three by-elections from the Tories and the LibDems gained four.
The Lib Dems were clearly in second place in all four of those wins. And just look at the Labour vote in Eastleigh:
LauraK: "Let's be plain: this is an appalling result for the Conservatives...this is a disaster"
"People on the ground say it is clear what happened...[the Downing Street video] is when support fell off a cliff"
"There are people in the Conservative Party who are pencilling in the possibility of a summer leadership election...there is no doubt this is a really dangerous moment for the PM"
What wonderful news to wake up to. Happy political moments have been vanishingly rare for me in recent years.
I wonder if NS shows that there is more than one type of Brexit vote. This is a traditional, livestock dominated, rural marches seat. Classically conservative, but very different from Hartlepool or Mansfield. Brexit may have become much less salient in Shropshire (and Herefordshire, Somerset, Devon) but perhaps it and the culture wars still retain their power in places further North and East.
I grew up in the Marches and it was never a hotbed of anti immigrant sentiment or wartime nostalgia. But it was also deeply unimpressed by metropolitan types.
To use a French analogy, the sort of place that might happily vote for Pecresse but not Le Pen. As those presidential maps show across the livestock farming regions across the Massif Central.
A great post. I think there three main groupings: "Singapore-on-Thames" - the hard right low tax low regulation state where the plebs get to work long hours in unsafe conditions for the betterment of their masters "Mercantile Britain" - lets be freed from restrictions about how we farm / fish / make stuff so that we can be more competitive "Workers Collective of Britain" - better jobs with better pay and conditions for me, flag and country patriotism
The first group and the third group are directly contradictory. The plebs that the John Redwoods of the world want to exploit with Brexit are the workers who expect to be paid more and treated better by the likes of John Redwood thanks to Brexit.
And the Mercantilers in the middle just want to make, sell, do. They wanted rid of the perceived red tape of the EU and things like the CAP and CFP.
Are any of these groups happy now? Higher taxes all round, a temporary spike in wages for a few small groups and everyone else feeling worse off, and mountains of red tape making even what they made / grew / sold before more expensive and harder.
I can't see how anyone can pull together a 2024 Brexit coalition from the ashes of the burnt promises of Boris's Oven-ready Brexit deal.
I think this is quite an astute post in terms of the categorisations, at least as far as an economic division of Brexit goes. I would fall firmly into the second category and yes I am very happy with Brexit. It is not perfect but then only fools expect perfection. But it still beats what we had before by a very long way.
Appreciate the nod. Quick question on your place in the Mercantile group - are you one of the people who is actually doing the mercantiling? You have to work very very hard to find happy voices out there who actually produce and trade stuff. There undoubtedly are some, but few, and massively outweighed by those who think vast increases in red tape and cost and reduced worker numbers is a Bad Thing.
Yep I have a small company that makes and sells model vehicles. That is in addition to my main career providing consultancy services. There is a bit more obvious paperwork when dealing with the EU but mostly that has been an up front process which is now in place. But as a country we are now removed from vast swathes of present and future rules and regulations on a wider scale outside of commerce which for me is a good thing.
Of course the economics of this has never for me been the point of it so it is easier for me to claim satisfaction and I would still have pushed for EFTA membership. But like I said, I never expected perfection.
Comments
And it isn't what the LibDems have done. Some people always vote, some people only vote in national elections, some people only vote in GEs. There is some movement depending on the campaign and the GOTV efforts by the parties, but it's at the margins - the idea that in an election all of one side's vote turns out and the other's doesnt is for the birds.
Happy, so very very happy, to have been wrong about this one. Well done NS.
The Lib Dems win by-elections. They chuck the kitchen sink at them. They are a protest vote.
Look at Old Bexley and Sidcup. When the Lib Dems aren’t interested, the Tories win.
Lib/Lab
V.
Tory/Nationalists
Also worth noting that the combined LibDem, Labour and Green vote yesterday was 23,000 on a 46% turnout, when it was 20,000 on a 68% turnout just a couple of years ago.
For me, this says that the data point to look out for in opinion polling is the Tory number. Recent scores on that front foretold the North Shropshire result.
"Singapore-on-Thames" - the hard right low tax low regulation state where the plebs get to work long hours in unsafe conditions for the betterment of their masters
"Mercantile Britain" - lets be freed from restrictions about how we farm / fish / make stuff so that we can be more competitive
"Workers Collective of Britain" - better jobs with better pay and conditions for me, flag and country patriotism
The first group and the third group are directly contradictory. The plebs that the John Redwoods of the world want to exploit with Brexit are the workers who expect to be paid more and treated better by the likes of John Redwood thanks to Brexit.
And the Mercantilers in the middle just want to make, sell, do. They wanted rid of the perceived red tape of the EU and things like the CAP and CFP.
Are any of these groups happy now? Higher taxes all round, a temporary spike in wages for a few small groups and everyone else feeling worse off, and mountains of red tape making even what they made / grew / sold before more expensive and harder.
I can't see how anyone can pull together a 2024 Brexit coalition from the ashes of the burnt promises of Boris's Oven-ready Brexit deal.
Government won 4 of them.
9 government defence by-elections in 1997-2001 parliament
Government won 9 of them
It looks like if they are going to win the next General election then they do. Even in the 2005-10 parliament Labour won half it's by-elections it was defending.
https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1471755193838706690
I’d like to thank the Tories for finding their own Jeremy Corbyn
This result is about as meaningful as Brecon and Radnorshire, won by the Lib Dems a few months before the Tories won an 80 seat majority.
(Aside: The collapse on the Tory vote share in North Shropshire was so large that the Tory -> Labour swing was nearly as large in NS - 9.4% - as in OB&S - 10.2%)
What they mean is "Please, please, please stop talking about Brexit in case anyone actually looks at what a steaming pile of crap it is"
Absolute denial lol
It's no wonder Boris Johnson refused to accept his comms guy Jack Doyle's resignation. Dealing with afterparty fallout is one of Jack's specialities.
During his days as editor of the student paper at the University of Manchester, Jack hosted a gathering in the paper's offices. One that was subsequently investigated by alarmed student union staff after it was found that all the costly computers in the office had had their browsers set to an extremely explicit adult website – with a particular focus on bum-widening activities.
Sadly, we'll have to leave you to make your own massive arsehole joke. We have spam filters to consider.
https://twitter.com/agnesfrim/status/1471757122887110663
Government’s don’t lose elections, oppositions won them.
That Labour isn’t winning by-elections from the Tories isn’t proof that the Tories will won the next election, but it tells us that we are not in 1994-97 territory at the moment.
The Lib Dems are in general trustworthy, reliable, competent and honest - and they didn't frighten the horses when they were part of the coalition government. In fact, they do say that Cameron found them much less of a problem than his own extremist MPs. So lots and lots of decent Conservatives have no fear about voting Lib Dem instead.
The problem that some of our PB Tories have is that they believe that the Tory leadership can do whatever it likes, and previous Conservative voters will go along with it. (Very sorry, young HY.....) The Conservative Party has no hope at all of winning these people back until it clears out all the incompetents, the crooks and the chancers - in fact most of the Cabinet. I am not sure they are prepared to do this.
Whats left? Yosemite?
How many votes are needed to call it ?
However as we said at the time the nearest to true sovereignty is to be found in North Korea. A global pariah.
So when all is said and done many people are realising that the concept alone is worthless (and we were always sovereign, obvs).
The leader of the Lib Dems has won by-elections, as leaders of the Lib Dems have a great history of doing, but I must have slept through Labour winning Tory voters over. Which by-election did that occur in? Did Labour win Old Bexley when I wasn't looking?
Go LDs
"People on the ground say it is clear what happened...[the Downing Street video] is when support fell off a cliff"
"There are people in the Conservative Party who are pencilling in the possibility of a summer leadership election...there is no doubt this is a really dangerous moment for the PM"
There's an opportunity for the opposition, but can they take it? And will someone get a grip of government and stop the self-inflicted political injuries?
But lets not kid ourselves that a by-election kicking means anything in the big picture.
He has at least acknowledged the magnitude of the defeat.
Axe the buffoon now. In both the national and party interest there is no alternative if further damage is to be avoided.
Pussyfooting around and not throwing May overboard after her 2017 election debacle was a foolish mistake, and the PCP should finally learn how to take on board the lessons of recent times. They failed to do this when they opted for the clown when they had the perfect example of Corbyn, and if they waste time instead of bringing the hammer down on the fool's career now then they will simply repeat the mistake of 2017.
In a few months cold feet and other factors might make it so that the PM's career survives. And then there's a year long wait, which is mid-2023, at the earliest.
Stop pussyfooting around, Conservative MPs. For the sake of your own careers, your own party, *and* the country, show some ruthlessness and be rid of this incompetent.
She was a credible, intelligent, and capable leader. None of those three virtues can be attributed to Boris Johnson.
Anyway, won a nice few quid on it so happy to have been right.
First: CCHQ tells us that not only has their man done no wrong, he’s a victim, pursued by a vicious media. ‘Any family man would do the same’. 3-line whip on MPs to repeat this.
Months later: He was never one of us.
https://twitter.com/KateMaltby/status/1471758794401144832
https://twitter.com/BenQuinn75/status/1471756487022235648
I said early on that Mike was right on this one and felt even more convinced during Partygate.
I did wobble a little on the day itself, but kept my bets.
I shall be picking up the price of a good curry when BF finally pay out.
They also see new houses being built which will be bought by themselves or their kids.
Though living many years in the constituencies of Dennis the Menace Skinner and Geoff the Complete Hoon have hardly helped
Gloria might have had my vote otherwise.
@tompeck
·
1h
I suppose what is actually historic is that it’s not merely Boris Johnson’s fault they lost the by-election, it’s also his fault they even had it.
Where does this get any easier for him?
You can point to other by elections all day long, but the level to which the public is engaged in this sort of thing, that narrative isn't going to reach them. It's a simple story:
Tory corruption and sleaze -> Tories lose -> Come in, number 55, time's up
While we obsessives pore over tables, the public's going to spend 10 seconds on this and come to the right conclusion.
Sir Roger Gale called it Boris' "second strike; three strikes and he's out..."
There will be a pause for reflection. Of course our esteemed PM is quite capable of a third strike in the meantime...
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1994_Eastleigh_by-election
And Littleborough and Saddleworth:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_Littleborough_and_Saddleworth_by-election
A bit different to North Shropshire.
Of course the economics of this has never for me been the point of it so it is easier for me to claim satisfaction and I would still have pushed for EFTA membership. But like I said, I never expected perfection.