Could we get a left field candidate in Southend West now, rather than just the assortment of far right fruit loops that contested 2016 Batley & Spen?
very random example scenario: Rory Stewart, Independent for Public Service. "I knew David and though we disagreed on many things he represented the best of a public service spirit that should drive MPs. This government has lost the plot on that public service aim and the message needs to be sent again that that is not good enough. it does not sit with the kind of person David Amess was and does not honour his memory".
I posted earlier that I understand the Greens intend to contest the seat. However I've just had a look at their website, and they don't.
And, on last night's result has anyone heard from the PM on the matter?
I can't see how anyone can pull together a 2024 Brexit coalition from the ashes of the burnt promises of Boris's Oven-ready Brexit deal.
This is the key, and also why the Brexiteers keep saying Brexit is over.
What they mean is "Please, please, please stop talking about Brexit in case anyone actually looks at what a steaming pile of crap it is"
What happened to your predictions of mass unemployment and empty supermarkets ?
All the Eastern Europeans went home so the opposite occurred and fruit and vegetables are rotting in the fields.
Empty supermarket shelves, what empty supermarket shelves? The supermarkets after seeing what empty shelves looked like have done a sterling job of double, triple and quadruple facing products to mask shortages. M&S and Waitrose Christmas "click and collect" products were sold out weeks and weeks ago.
People are noticing things aren't what they were, and however much you protest everything is fine and dandy they won't believe you as a Conservative apologist. The people of N. Shropshire didn't believe Conservative apologists.
So if the fruit and vegetables are rotting in the fields why are the supermarkets filled with fruit and vegetables displaying union jacks ?
Likewise the meat aisles.
Deal with reality.
And the reality is that supermarkets are full.
The people who have worked flat out to give the impression that "you can do your shop here" will be reassured that there was no crisis for them to work flat out to fix.
The problem now is a surplus of food. An awful lot of catering packs are surplus to requirements. Hard to say "see, no food shortages, I was right" when circumstances have swung massively so that there is now a surplus.
Still, if that line of defence is to make you better after last night, feel free.
I don't doubt people have worked hard and I wish governments were as well run as supermarkets.
But all the claims and predictions about empty supermarkets have been proved false for years all the way back to strawberries.
Pigs in blankets are only the Christmas manifestation of these scare stories:
Could we get a left field candidate in Southend West now, rather than just the assortment of far right fruit loops that contested 2016 Batley & Spen?
very random example scenario: Rory Stewart, Independent for Public Service. "I knew David and though we disagreed on many things he represented the best of a public service spirit that should drive MPs. This government has lost the plot on that public service aim and the message needs to be sent again that that is not good enough. it does not sit with the kind of person David Amess was and does not honour his memory".
I posted earlier that I understand the Greens intend to contest the seat.
And, on last night's result has anyone heard from the PM on the matter?
Tom Peck @tompeck · 1h I suppose what is actually historic is that it’s not merely Boris Johnson’s fault they lost the by-election, it’s also his fault they even had it.
This and this again. This was an entirely unforced error. The only reason we are discussing this at all this morning was a dinner at the Reform Club where he was persuaded to try and save Paterson. That shows a complete lack of political judgment that should worry Tories more than anything else. He has just pissed huge amount of political capital up the wall for nothing.
That's what's so stupid about it all. Had he simply let Paterson take his punishment, this would never have happened.
But it is undeniably symptomatic of a deeper and more widespread problem in Johnson and his psyche. To lay his current misfortunes at the feet of a single wrong decision seems naive. It is just one of dozens of examples of his unsuitability for high office. Indeed, no matter how bad it was, if the Paterson decision had been a one off then Johnson might well have still won this by election. But it wasn't. Which is why he should be toast.
North Shropshire will be back to a solid Con seat in 2023/2024 but Conservatives deserved to lose this after their recent behaviour starting with backing that fool Patterson.
As for Boris I still stand by my prediction that he's stand down next summer'ish.
Could we get a left field candidate in Southend West now, rather than just the assortment of far right fruit loops that contested 2016 Batley & Spen?
very random example scenario: Rory Stewart, Independent for Public Service. "I knew David and though we disagreed on many things he represented the best of a public service spirit that should drive MPs. This government has lost the plot on that public service aim and the message needs to be sent again that that is not good enough. it does not sit with the kind of person David Amess was and does not honour his memory".
I posted earlier that I understand the Greens intend to contest the seat.
And, on last night's result has anyone heard from the PM on the matter?
This recent reluctance to contest such seats is most odd; you couldn't get more raw than Ian Gow blown up by the IRA, yet a full by-election went ahead. Seeing our usual and traditional democratic process continue despite those who threaten our politics is surely the right way to proceed.
One of the most consistently underestimated themes for this UK government is the extent to which they want to be the closest possible partners of the US, and their disappointment that this is not happening. Entire swathes of Brexit and trade policy are dominated by this.
I assume that’s partly on the back of that embarrassing Penny Mordaunt speech? If this current mob are still in charge by 2024 I can see them praying for the return of Trump.
What good will it do them? Trump did not seem all that interested in anything outside the USA.
In one respect, Trump was a GOOD President - he did not start any foreign wars.
Interesting result, which I got wrong. Some wait and see is required, but overall it increases the chance of the centre left majority in the electorate operating efficiently enough to win.
Part of the 'wait and see' is that the chance of Boris being leader at the next GE is much smaller, and so the area of known unknowns is increased.
A Tory problem is: can they win from the more populist right (again). If the answer is not, then One Nation leadership from the overcrowded centre is the better option - bit it is a risk.
Apart from Brexit Boris is not governing from the right but from the centre. It was Partygate which cost him last night not being too right-wing, indeed he needed Labour votes to get vaxports through and is spending more than any Tory PM since Macmillan
For a lot of non-Tories, Johnson's attacks on basic freedoms and our democratic checks and balances have galvanised them into an anyone but the Tories frame of mind. And there are more non-Tories than Tories. If they are joined by Tories who do not like the economic turn the country is taking, it is going to get very difficult for the government very quickly.
Tom Peck @tompeck · 1h I suppose what is actually historic is that it’s not merely Boris Johnson’s fault they lost the by-election, it’s also his fault they even had it.
This and this again. This was an entirely unforced error. The only reason we are discussing this at all this morning was a dinner at the Reform Club where he was persuaded to try and save Paterson. That shows a complete lack of political judgment that should worry Tories more than anything else. He has just pissed huge amount of political capital up the wall for nothing.
That's what's so stupid about it all. Had he simply let Paterson take his punishment, this would never have happened.
But it is undeniably symptomatic of a deeper and more widespread problem in Johnson and his psyche. To lay his current misfortunes at the feet of a single wrong decision seems naive. It is just one of dozens of examples of his unsuitability for high office. Indeed, no matter how bad it was, if the Paterson decision had been a one off then Johnson might well have still won this by election. But it wasn't. Which is why he should be toast.
Really interesting result. Boris won’t get out of 2022 as PM.
Also note - remember before his big political comeback he lost weight, got a decent haircut and looked smarter? The last couple of videos have shown him to look like he’s just rolled out of bed. Image matters and he looks like he can’t give a shit
Could we get a left field candidate in Southend West now, rather than just the assortment of far right fruit loops that contested 2016 Batley & Spen?
very random example scenario: Rory Stewart, Independent for Public Service. "I knew David and though we disagreed on many things he represented the best of a public service spirit that should drive MPs. This government has lost the plot on that public service aim and the message needs to be sent again that that is not good enough. it does not sit with the kind of person David Amess was and does not honour his memory".
I posted earlier that I understand the Greens intend to contest the seat. However I've just had a look at their website, and they don't.
And, on last night's result has anyone heard from the PM on the matter?
They won't find him until someone in Number Ten goes to get some milk...
Boris was successfully all things to all possible voters at the last leadership election.
With Boris not standing MPs (and members) need to decide on what direction the party takes going forward which will make the decision especially difficult.
Solid competence and professional and personal integrity would be a big step.
Nah, Lib Dems win protest by-elections. It isn't news.
This result is about as meaningful as Brecon and Radnorshire, won by the Lib Dems a few months before the Tories won an 80 seat majority.
Doesn't this feel different to you?
Paterson could just be a black Wednesday moment for the Tories, a pinch point where everything goes horribly wrong thereafter. I did think the inch-high, inch-perfect Sunak would return the Tory doubters to the fold for the next GE, but he too has just ****** on his chips.
The BBC are under instruction to make light of Conservative travails but ITV (even Ant and Dec) Sky, Chanel 4, 5, and the print media are relentless. And, I don't do much social media, but every day I get a comedy WhatsApp about Partygate, or Boris Johnson or the Conservatives.
No it doesn't feel different to me, in fact why I was so positive the Lib Dems would win and why I had money on it was that this was the perfect storm of a by-election.
Not just a mid-term by election, but a midterm by-election when the government has just kicked sand in the face of its supporters (tax rises and restrictions coming back) and the by-election was triggered by scandal with Paterson.
You couldn't get a much more ideal midterm by-election if you tried. That's why I knew the Lib Dems would win and justifiably so.
But midterms aren't General Elections. The 2024 General Election isn't going to be centred upon Owen Paterson.
I can't see how anyone can pull together a 2024 Brexit coalition from the ashes of the burnt promises of Boris's Oven-ready Brexit deal.
This is the key, and also why the Brexiteers keep saying Brexit is over.
What they mean is "Please, please, please stop talking about Brexit in case anyone actually looks at what a steaming pile of crap it is"
None of my identified 3 groups are happy. The Singaporers have got MORE taxes not less, the Msercantilers have more cost and faff than ever, and the Workers Collective have less money than they had before. Even then "jam tomorrow" dog whistles like "we'll get rid of the ECJ" are falling apart because no we won't.
Whats left? Yosemite?
Your Workers Collective have full employment and higher wages.
They also see new houses being built which will be bought by themselves or their kids.
So why do so many of them feel worse off? A few truckers being paid more isn't the entire working class - little has improved for most, inflation is running away and they're about to get slammed by a big tax cut.
And you make the same mistake on houses as Philip does. Red wall Brexiteers voted Tory and independent at both national and local level to STOP these houses being built. They don't want them. Roads are congested, schools and hospitals are full. They don't need more people. So they vote for the candidates - Tories and independents - who say they will stop the people responsible - Labour.
I live in the Red Wall and have never heard complaints about more houses being built.
In mining areas, at least, new developments, whether they are housing or industrial, are a sign of increasing prosperity and are welcomed.
As for pay rises there's plenty of them in manufacturing and construction currently - maybe different in the public sector and some services.
The red wall isn't uniform of course. My old parts of the red wall (on both the Lancashire and Yorkshire sides) are very very anti-new houses. Being associated with giving planning permission has been a political death sentence for various councillors I can think of. Tory leaflets campaign against Labour building houses everywhere.
There are pay rises where there is a shortage of labour. But as they are rapidly feeding through into inflation the people who haven't had 35% rises - and thats most people - just wonder why they're worse off. And then the tax rises kick in next April.
Inflation is 5% not 35%.
And I suspect for many people they would rather have a 5% pay rise and 5% inflation than a 1% pay rise and 1% inflation.
In any case lots of people are doing pretty nicely currently and they tend to be working class.
Its that aspect which annoys many middle class people.
Golly, you think pay is always in perfect lockstep with inflation? Can I guess that you are well under 50?
Unfortunately pay has been in near lockstep with inflation for the last 15 or so years.
Whether the era or pay rising faster than inflation will return I can but hope.
Could we get a left field candidate in Southend West now, rather than just the assortment of far right fruit loops that contested 2016 Batley & Spen?
very random example scenario: Rory Stewart, Independent for Public Service. "I knew David and though we disagreed on many things he represented the best of a public service spirit that should drive MPs. This government has lost the plot on that public service aim and the message needs to be sent again that that is not good enough. it does not sit with the kind of person David Amess was and does not honour his memory".
I posted earlier that I understand the Greens intend to contest the seat.
And, on last night's result has anyone heard from the PM on the matter?
Hardball. The Greens and RefUK are down on Wiki page for the pending by-election as having agreed to stand aside, which is why I didn't suggest them.
But, yes, they are probably the right party in the circumstances to build a broad anti government vote - moreso than the LDs who I can understand being reluctant because of the offence it might cause in GE target seats.
Putative Green voters elsewhere won't give two figs.
Tom Peck @tompeck · 1h I suppose what is actually historic is that it’s not merely Boris Johnson’s fault they lost the by-election, it’s also his fault they even had it.
This and this again. This was an entirely unforced error. The only reason we are discussing this at all this morning was a dinner at the Reform Club where he was persuaded to try and save Paterson. That shows a complete lack of political judgment that should worry Tories more than anything else. He has just pissed huge amount of political capital up the wall for nothing.
That's what's so stupid about it all. Had he simply let Paterson take his punishment, this would never have happened.
You need to ask the all important question.
What case of abuse of position is forthcoming and so obviously bad that Paterson's case had to be used to justify the immediate redesign of Parliament's Disciplinary Processes?
When you look at it that way protection Paterson became the only option. And the fact the attempt to rewrite Parliament's Disciplinary process failed highlights why Boris may have to decide to leave sooner rather than later
Nah, Lib Dems win protest by-elections. It isn't news.
This result is about as meaningful as Brecon and Radnorshire, won by the Lib Dems a few months before the Tories won an 80 seat majority.
I think you’re wrong. Two new things are happening. The centre left anti Tory vote is energised and organised and the leaders of Labour and the LibDems are going after and successfully winning Tory voters.
Oh really? What has the leader of Labour won?
The leader of the Lib Dems has won by-elections, as leaders of the Lib Dems have a great history of doing, but I must have slept through Labour winning Tory voters over. Which by-election did that occur in? Did Labour win Old Bexley when I wasn't looking?
Unsurprisingly Labour didn’t win OB&S in 2021, much as they didn’t in 1997. But there was a decent Tory->Lab swing that brings the parties roughly back to where they were in 2005.
I am delighted that 2019 Tory voters are backing the LDs and Labour. You’ve got a fight on your hands. Just as it should be.
I don't have a fight, I am not in a party. I wanted the Lib Dems to win last night, but I've not determined who will have my vote in the next General Election.
In midterm by-elections Labour should be looking to do better than it did in 2005. Just as the Lib Dems did better last night. The fact Labour can't stir past that is weakness not strength.
Surely now the Tories will get rid of Boris. He's a liability.
True.
But who is there, and what concrete things do they do, that turn this around for the government?
A fresh face and a bit of coherence are necessary, but I'm not sure they are sufficient.
I can't answer the first question, on the second it's easy. Stop partying in lockdown, stop giving away crony contracts and get some more competent advisors. That alone will change things.
Perhaps I’m not old enough but I’m at a loss to understand why Tory MPs are described as being ruthless to their leaders. They wobbled at the knees over May for two years after she sha*t the bed at the 2017 election. They left Major in charge even though it was clear he was leading them to a historic loss. Even IDS was left in too long (two years too long).
And now we have the grubby spectacle of the MPs pretending to themselves and everyone else that Boris deserves one last chance and can still be a success going forwards.
They are mad if they wait until after the locals. It’s another chance for lifelong Tory voters to tick a different box rather than just stay away, and once those voters cross the rubicon, they can’t ever be taken for granted again.
The leadership contenders are the worst of all. We all know that you’re grubby and full of ego and would piss on your firstborn to get into the hot seat. So stop with the faux loyalty and get busy knifing.
A reminder to govt not to take the electorate for granted. But Helen Morgan unlikely to hold on at a general election.
Let's hope the North Shropshire CLP suddenly grow some tactical nous, and at the next election, decamp to Shrewsbury to try and dislodge Daniel Kawczynski.
I can't see how anyone can pull together a 2024 Brexit coalition from the ashes of the burnt promises of Boris's Oven-ready Brexit deal.
This is the key, and also why the Brexiteers keep saying Brexit is over.
What they mean is "Please, please, please stop talking about Brexit in case anyone actually looks at what a steaming pile of crap it is"
None of my identified 3 groups are happy. The Singaporers have got MORE taxes not less, the Msercantilers have more cost and faff than ever, and the Workers Collective have less money than they had before. Even then "jam tomorrow" dog whistles like "we'll get rid of the ECJ" are falling apart because no we won't.
Whats left? Yosemite?
Your Workers Collective have full employment and higher wages.
They also see new houses being built which will be bought by themselves or their kids.
So why do so many of them feel worse off? A few truckers being paid more isn't the entire working class - little has improved for most, inflation is running away and they're about to get slammed by a big tax cut.
And you make the same mistake on houses as Philip does. Red wall Brexiteers voted Tory and independent at both national and local level to STOP these houses being built. They don't want them. Roads are congested, schools and hospitals are full. They don't need more people. So they vote for the candidates - Tories and independents - who say they will stop the people responsible - Labour.
I live in the Red Wall and have never heard complaints about more houses being built.
In mining areas, at least, new developments, whether they are housing or industrial, are a sign of increasing prosperity and are welcomed.
As for pay rises there's plenty of them in manufacturing and construction currently - maybe different in the public sector and some services.
I tend to agree that new building in a lot of these constituencies has driven the rise in Conservative support.
As to North Shropshire, it's hard to see the result as undeserved.
May do in some areas. But where I am from the Tories campaign successfully against the blight of new homes.
Stockton though has a unique set of circumstances - the infrastructure just doesn't exist to support the new estates and the Tees makes adding that infrastructure incredibly expensive.
Thats hardly unique, or accurate when the homes are being built in Ingleby or the bottom end of Yarm, or the massive "Darlington Back Lane development. Plenty of space there. But new houses blight existing areas - which is why Tories campaign against them. There isn't any money for new roads. Or schools. Or hospitals. Which are all needed for new homes. So the homes get built and everyone in the area suffers.
Nearly 22 hours since I got my booster - Pfizer - and apart from a tiny bit of soreness where I was jabbed I feel fine. Long may it continue!
Meant to be having mine this evening - then straight out running Saturday morning. And Sunday morning as well. Fingers crossed...
Fingers crossed for you too. But don't overdo it.
I had my Pfizer yesterday morning. I've just come back from a seven-mile run, and am in bed feeling dizzy and a bit nauseous. And my harm hurts like *******.
But at least I've got today's run over with, and the little 'un's going to school so I can just sleep.
Good man.
I had both my AZ's without suffering any side effects at all, but I'm not taking anything for granted.
Certainly if I do end up feeling like death warmed over I'll be staying home for the weekend. Won't be any use for cross country if I'm vax zonked. I run with all the elegance and vitesse of a tortoise wading through treacle at the best of times.
Wow! As speedy as a tortoise wading through treacle! I'm at the sloth crossing a busy motorway stage. At least, that's how I feel at the moment. Rather flat ...
I'm actually a really slow runner, but I do seem able to maintain regular reasonable distances. And I am nearly fifty, so I can always blame age.
(Although it's rather embarrassing when I get overtaken by an evidently much older man...)
I’m also of the slow runner clan. For many reasons I just don’t seem able to run that fast, even at my fittest. Resting heart rate low fifties, but carrying too much weight. Best 5k time 26 minutes, best 10k 55 min. But a few years ago happy to churn out (slow) half marathons. I find you exploits inspiring. Do you never get injured?
Thanks for that.
Your times are about my best as well. My neighbour - over ten years younger than me - can do a 10k in 40 minutes. We never run together. I also never do official runs - I think if I did I'd get carried along, and might manage a sub 50-min 10K. That's my target.
As for injury: I got a minor niggle a couple of years ago, but this year I've had no real issues. I think only one blister as well. My guess is that I've been lucky, and the fact I used to be a long-distance walker means my feet and legs are used to regular exercise. I'm terrified of my ankle injury coming back, but so far - fingers crossed - it's been fine.
If anything, I have fewer injuries whilst going through one of my manic walking or running phases: if I don't do too much for a month, then I start getting back and other pains from lounging around ...
Thats very interesting. My wife has completed over 20 marathons (enough to have lost count). Along the way we became aware of the 100 marathon club, essentially nutters who do marathons all the time. Most people who do an odd marathon (bucket list thing, or raise money for a charity) cannot conceive of doing 100+ (and indeed many hundreds of marathons) but these guys don't really 'race' anywhere - they mainly just like plodding round really long runs. I've heard of them doing 4 in a week (sat, sun, wed and sun for instance). I think there is something to be said for conditioning the body to regular exercise like this, as long as it is a steady effort, and that sound very much like what you do. Top work!
Thanks. I'm considering (no more than that) doing a Marathon distance to complete this insanity on Jan 1st or 2nd. It'll probably depend on weather, covid etc. I've never run that far before (have walked it many times, though).
A few years back, Mrs J was running the Grand Union Canal half marathon. I waited near the end and started chatting with a gentleman whose wife was running. She had just retired at 52, and was doing 52 half-marathons in the year - all official ones. She was trying to do one a week, and they were driving all over the country to get to them. Apparently it was hard to find scheduled ones during November and December, so they were thinking of going abroad for a few as well.
I really admire that sort of insanity.
edit: and congrats to your wife as well!
Hah seems we're all about the same slow pace. I got a 5k pb of 23:15 in the summer but am nowhere near that now. Think last night's 9.5k (club) run was about 5:50 pace (Unwatched) and that was a real slog. (Killamarsh to Beighton and back @JosiasJessop ) I should probably sign up for another half at some point.
Could we get a left field candidate in Southend West now, rather than just the assortment of far right fruit loops that contested 2016 Batley & Spen?
very random example scenario: Rory Stewart, Independent for Public Service. "I knew David and though we disagreed on many things he represented the best of a public service spirit that should drive MPs. This government has lost the plot on that public service aim and the message needs to be sent again that that is not good enough. it does not sit with the kind of person David Amess was and does not honour his memory".
I posted earlier that I understand the Greens intend to contest the seat. However I've just had a look at their website, and they don't.
And, on last night's result has anyone heard from the PM on the matter?
The Journos have to find him first. Do we know which fridge he is staying in?
Boris was successfully all things to all possible voters at the last leadership election.
With Boris not standing MPs (and members) need to decide on what direction the party takes going forward which will make the decision especially difficult.
Solid competence and professional and personal integrity would be a big step.
I'm not sure there is a worse option currently available on those measures. I think any of them would be an improvement. Even Raab.
Axe the buffoon now. In both the national and party interest there is no alternative if further damage is to be avoided.
Pussyfooting around and not throwing May overboard after her 2017 election debacle was a foolish mistake, and the PCP should finally learn how to take on board the lessons of recent times. They failed to do this when they opted for the clown when they had the perfect example of Corbyn, and if they waste time instead of bringing the hammer down on the fool's career now then they will simply repeat the mistake of 2017.
In a few months cold feet and other factors might make it so that the PM's career survives. And then there's a year long wait, which is mid-2023, at the earliest.
Stop pussyfooting around, Conservative MPs. For the sake of your own careers, your own party, *and* the country, show some ruthlessness and be rid of this incompetent.
I don't think we need to worry about cold feet. What respite is there coming for Peppa? The Standards Commissioner is about to dig deep into flatgate, there are more bunga bunga party revelations coming, the scientists are now openly contradicting him in press conferences as Omicron demolishes people and businesses, investigations into PPE are pending, same with the handling of the pandemic. And for the mouth-foamers we can't stop migrants and we're caving into our own agreement/the EU over NI and the ECJ. And then that massive tax rise kicks in.
Where does this get any easier for him?
The position is objectively difficult for any PM, actually, especially a Conservative one - yes, many of us wouldn't have started from here, and we wouldn't be making the same unforced errors, but the pandemic plus the contradictions of hard Brexit plus the intractability of the refugee issue would make it difficult for any Tory PM. A subtle danger for the Tories is that they conclude the problem is Johnson, rush to replace him with, say, Truss, and find that she sinks in the same way. They can't credibly change leaders twice in one Parliament.
I'm inclined to Truss staying in her current post - there's still most of the legwork on post-Brexit trade to be done, plus the EU FTA to be sorted and bedded in.
And especially where we can have a competitive advantage where the EuCo is sclerotic.
I can't see how anyone can pull together a 2024 Brexit coalition from the ashes of the burnt promises of Boris's Oven-ready Brexit deal.
This is the key, and also why the Brexiteers keep saying Brexit is over.
What they mean is "Please, please, please stop talking about Brexit in case anyone actually looks at what a steaming pile of crap it is"
What happened to your predictions of mass unemployment and empty supermarkets ?
All the Eastern Europeans went home so the opposite occurred and fruit and vegetables are rotting in the fields.
Empty supermarket shelves, what empty supermarket shelves? The supermarkets after seeing what empty shelves looked like have done a sterling job of double, triple and quadruple facing products to mask shortages. M&S and Waitrose Christmas "click and collect" products were sold out weeks and weeks ago.
People are noticing things aren't what they were, and however much you protest everything is fine and dandy they won't believe you as a Conservative apologist. The people of N. Shropshire didn't believe Conservative apologists.
So if the fruit and vegetables are rotting in the fields why are the supermarkets filled with fruit and vegetables displaying union jacks ?
Likewise the meat aisles.
Deal with reality.
And the reality is that supermarkets are full.
The people who have worked flat out to give the impression that "you can do your shop here" will be reassured that there was no crisis for them to work flat out to fix.
The problem now is a surplus of food. An awful lot of catering packs are surplus to requirements. Hard to say "see, no food shortages, I was right" when circumstances have swung massively so that there is now a surplus.
Still, if that line of defence is to make you better after last night, feel free.
Except you missed the fact that I said there wouldn't be issues because companies would work flat out to fix them. I repeatedly said any companies that didn't fix any issues would end up without customers and business as a result, those companies that did fix them would win customers and market share and profit.
This is the invisible hand in action.
That the invisible had has worked, that the markets have done their job, that the companies have done their job, is a success for the free market not a failure. The invisible hand works.
this by @TanyaGold1 is spot on. for years, the Tories have tried to win by-elections by not allowing their candidates to do any media interviews. can you blame voters for saying ‘no, thanks’?
Boris, very much like Trump. They inspire voters but not just their own. Replace Boris and I think Tories lose any hope of the Red Wall, as that's a personal vote. Keep Boris and the Lib-Lab non-pact pact swings into full motion to get marginal Tories out. Not sure where the Tories go from here as I fully expect PR from a rainbow coalition, which will disproportionately disadvantage Tories.
Tom Peck @tompeck · 1h I suppose what is actually historic is that it’s not merely Boris Johnson’s fault they lost the by-election, it’s also his fault they even had it.
This and this again. This was an entirely unforced error. The only reason we are discussing this at all this morning was a dinner at the Reform Club where he was persuaded to try and save Paterson. That shows a complete lack of political judgment that should worry Tories more than anything else. He has just pissed huge amount of political capital up the wall for nothing.
The dinner was NOT at the Reform Club (I am a member of the Reform). It was at the Garrick, which, shamefully, does not admit ladies as members.
Surely now the Tories will get rid of Boris. He's a liability.
True.
But who is there, and what concrete things do they do, that turn this around for the government?
A fresh face and a bit of coherence are necessary, but I'm not sure they are sufficient.
I can't answer the first question, on the second it's easy. Stop partying in lockdown, stop giving away crony contracts and get some more competent advisors. That alone will change things.
Stop unforced errors. It's like watching tennis. It's unwatchable when there are lots of unforced errors. Brilliant when there aren't even though someone loses.
ATM watching the Tories is like watching a decent tennis player constantly doing much less well through unforced errors. Toe curling. Chap called Tim was bad this way sometimes.
I can't see how anyone can pull together a 2024 Brexit coalition from the ashes of the burnt promises of Boris's Oven-ready Brexit deal.
This is the key, and also why the Brexiteers keep saying Brexit is over.
What they mean is "Please, please, please stop talking about Brexit in case anyone actually looks at what a steaming pile of crap it is"
None of my identified 3 groups are happy. The Singaporers have got MORE taxes not less, the Msercantilers have more cost and faff than ever, and the Workers Collective have less money than they had before. Even then "jam tomorrow" dog whistles like "we'll get rid of the ECJ" are falling apart because no we won't.
Whats left? Yosemite?
Your Workers Collective have full employment and higher wages.
They also see new houses being built which will be bought by themselves or their kids.
So why do so many of them feel worse off? A few truckers being paid more isn't the entire working class - little has improved for most, inflation is running away and they're about to get slammed by a big tax cut.
And you make the same mistake on houses as Philip does. Red wall Brexiteers voted Tory and independent at both national and local level to STOP these houses being built. They don't want them. Roads are congested, schools and hospitals are full. They don't need more people. So they vote for the candidates - Tories and independents - who say they will stop the people responsible - Labour.
I live in the Red Wall and have never heard complaints about more houses being built.
In mining areas, at least, new developments, whether they are housing or industrial, are a sign of increasing prosperity and are welcomed.
As for pay rises there's plenty of them in manufacturing and construction currently - maybe different in the public sector and some services.
I tend to agree that new building in a lot of these constituencies has driven the rise in Conservative support.
As to North Shropshire, it's hard to see the result as undeserved.
May do in some areas. But where I am from the Tories campaign successfully against the blight of new homes.
Stockton though has a unique set of circumstances - the infrastructure just doesn't exist to support the new estates and the Tees makes adding that infrastructure incredibly expensive.
Thats hardly unique, or accurate when the homes are being built in Ingleby or the bottom end of Yarm, or the massive "Darlington Back Lane development. Plenty of space there. But new houses blight existing areas - which is why Tories campaign against them. There isn't any money for new roads. Or schools. Or hospitals. Which are all needed for new homes. So the homes get built and everyone in the area suffers.
You haven't built very many new housing estates in the UK, clearly.
Here, and everywhere I know, the cost of new school places and the rest etc is all met by the builder of the housing estate.
IMO that is unfair on the FTBs who mainly buy the houses, as they will pick up part of the cost rather than it going through Council Tax.
One of the most consistently underestimated themes for this UK government is the extent to which they want to be the closest possible partners of the US, and their disappointment that this is not happening. Entire swathes of Brexit and trade policy are dominated by this.
I assume that’s partly on the back of that embarrassing Penny Mordaunt speech? If this current mob are still in charge by 2024 I can see them praying for the return of Trump.
What good will it do them? Trump did not seem all that interested in anything outside the USA.
In one respect, Trump was a GOOD President - he did not start any foreign wars.
Insofar as Trump had a coherent international policy including the UK, it appeared to be based on him being excited by Brexit. If PM Truss can do a bit of arsecrawling and dangle another visit with King Charles in front of him, Trump might be enticed into another petulant trade war with the EU.
Boris was successfully all things to all possible voters at the last leadership election.
With Boris not standing MPs (and members) need to decide on what direction the party takes going forward which will make the decision especially difficult.
Solid competence and professional and personal integrity would be a big step.
Boris was successfully all things to all possible voters at the last leadership election.
With Boris not standing MPs (and members) need to decide on what direction the party takes going forward which will make the decision especially difficult.
The problem with Boris is that he’s good at presenting himself superficially as all things for all people but scratch away the surface and he’s not. His sensibilities are London and the shires. His circle largely comes from the same old Tory political elite. People have started to work that one out, now that the sheen is coming off.
His problem is that his 2019 intake were too junior to really climb the ranks. But a smart politician really keen on levelling up and building on the 2019 foundations would have said that by 2 years into the Parliament they’d be promoting more of the red wall Tories into government. The individuals at the upper echelons of the party are still either remnants from the Cameron generation or speak to traditional Tory stereotypes, by and large.
If you’re going to build such a diverse coalition as what Boris did in 2019, it’s tricky to keep them all on the bus. Blair did it through promising and delivering (particularly in the 1997-2005 era) economic security. Boris hasn’t had that luck: he’s had a crisis instead. But he could’ve done a lot more to cater to the broad church than he has been doing.
I can't see how anyone can pull together a 2024 Brexit coalition from the ashes of the burnt promises of Boris's Oven-ready Brexit deal.
This is the key, and also why the Brexiteers keep saying Brexit is over.
What they mean is "Please, please, please stop talking about Brexit in case anyone actually looks at what a steaming pile of crap it is"
None of my identified 3 groups are happy. The Singaporers have got MORE taxes not less, the Msercantilers have more cost and faff than ever, and the Workers Collective have less money than they had before. Even then "jam tomorrow" dog whistles like "we'll get rid of the ECJ" are falling apart because no we won't.
Whats left? Yosemite?
Your Workers Collective have full employment and higher wages.
They also see new houses being built which will be bought by themselves or their kids.
So why do so many of them feel worse off? A few truckers being paid more isn't the entire working class - little has improved for most, inflation is running away and they're about to get slammed by a big tax cut.
And you make the same mistake on houses as Philip does. Red wall Brexiteers voted Tory and independent at both national and local level to STOP these houses being built. They don't want them. Roads are congested, schools and hospitals are full. They don't need more people. So they vote for the candidates - Tories and independents - who say they will stop the people responsible - Labour.
I live in the Red Wall and have never heard complaints about more houses being built.
In mining areas, at least, new developments, whether they are housing or industrial, are a sign of increasing prosperity and are welcomed.
As for pay rises there's plenty of them in manufacturing and construction currently - maybe different in the public sector and some services.
The red wall isn't uniform of course. My old parts of the red wall (on both the Lancashire and Yorkshire sides) are very very anti-new houses. Being associated with giving planning permission has been a political death sentence for various councillors I can think of. Tory leaflets campaign against Labour building houses everywhere.
There are pay rises where there is a shortage of labour. But as they are rapidly feeding through into inflation the people who haven't had 35% rises - and thats most people - just wonder why they're worse off. And then the tax rises kick in next April.
Inflation is 5% not 35%.
And I suspect for many people they would rather have a 5% pay rise and 5% inflation than a 1% pay rise and 1% inflation.
In any case lots of people are doing pretty nicely currently and they tend to be working class.
Its that aspect which annoys many middle class people.
Golly, you think pay is always in perfect lockstep with inflation? Can I guess that you are well under 50?
Unfortunately pay has been in near lockstep with inflation for the last 15 or so years.
Whether the era or pay rising faster than inflation will return I can but hope.
Even worse, if you look at real inflation including house prices and not the sham that is CPI, then pay rises have been below inflation for decades.
Fantastic for those who bought their homes in the past, not so good for anyone younger than them.
The only thing worse than inflation, is no inflation it seems.
Percentage shares of the vote from Wiki: Note: a 22% drop in turnout compared to the GE with Tory voters both switching to LD and sitting on their hands. A reminder to govt not to take the electorate for granted. But Helen Morgan unlikely to hold on at a general election.
It would be very hard to see the Tories losing the next general election if they hadn't first suffered some bad by-election defeats. So some of the necessary conditions for such a defeat are being put in place.
A long way to go still, and the position is still recoverable.
How?
If the Tories could simply stop inflicting damage on themselves it would be a good start.
Johnson needs to find a capable person to run his government for him, or else the Tories need to find a different PM who can.
The opposition is not so formidable that the government cannot recover. But someone in government has to act.
Boris was successfully all things to all possible voters at the last leadership election.
With Boris not standing MPs (and members) need to decide on what direction the party takes going forward which will make the decision especially difficult.
The problem with Boris is that he’s good at presenting himself superficially as all things for all people but scratch away the surface and he’s not. His sensibilities are London and the shires. His circle largely comes from the same old Tory political elite. People have started to work that one out, now that the sheen is coming off.
His problem is that his 2019 intake were too junior to really climb the ranks. But a smart politician really keen on levelling up and building on the 2019 foundations would have said that by 2 years into the Parliament they’d be promoting more of the red wall Tories into government. The individuals at the upper echelons of the party are still either remnants from the Cameron generation or speak to traditional Tory stereotypes, by and large.
If you’re going to build such a diverse coalition as what Boris did in 2019, it’s tricky to keep them all on the bus. Blair did it through promising and delivering (particularly in the 1997-2005 era) economic security. Boris hasn’t had that luck: he’s had a crisis instead. But he could’ve done a lot more to cater to the broad church than he has been doing.
Tom Peck @tompeck · 1h I suppose what is actually historic is that it’s not merely Boris Johnson’s fault they lost the by-election, it’s also his fault they even had it.
This and this again. This was an entirely unforced error. The only reason we are discussing this at all this morning was a dinner at the Reform Club where he was persuaded to try and save Paterson. That shows a complete lack of political judgment that should worry Tories more than anything else. He has just pissed huge amount of political capital up the wall for nothing.
The dinner was NOT at the Reform Club (I am a member of the Reform). It was at the Garrick, which, shamefully, does not admit ladies as members.
Arghh! Sorry! You are 100% right and I apologise. I should know better. Rushed post. I even had the image of the Garrick in my head. If it makes you feel better one of my bitterest regrets is not accepting an offer from a college friend of mine 20 years ago to put me up for the Reform. I ended up joining the O&C and often sigh whistfully as I wander past your place.
You haven't built very many new housing estates in the UK, clearly.
Here, and everywhere I know, the cost of new school places and the rest etc is all met by the builder of the housing estate.
Um, kind of.
Our local district council (West Oxfordshire) is proposing that the five massive "strategic development sites" in the area will be entirely exempt from Community Infrastructure Levy, because otherwise they would be uneconomic for the builders. (This is trivially disprovable but that's another story.)
So although the new school places will be funded by the builders, the "and the rest" won't be.
Someone half-humorously suggested recently that the Tories might soon start polling better in Scotland than England. Council by-election from last night:
Argyll & Bute: Lomond North - Conservative hold based on first preference votes
Paul Collins (Scottish Conservative and Unionist) – 742 (+11.3%) Ken Smith (Scottish National Party) – 459 (+5.0%) Mark Irvine (Independent) – 418 (from nowhere) Robert MacIntyre (Independent) – 204 (+0.5%)
Swing: SNP to Conservative 3¼% since 2017 and 5¼% since 2012 and 8¾% since 2007.
BTW - Boris won't be going anywhere. Tories are always extremely vulnerable when challenged by LibDems in high profile by-elections, even when in opposition, never mind government. I was mildly surprised at how well they did in Old Bexley. The really surprising by-election was Hartlepool. It's when there are big swings to Labour that the Tories will need to worry. They'll regain North Shropshire at the GE. Even so, a bloody nose for Boris, and he's fortunate that we are going into Xmas recess.
Boris, very much like Trump. They inspire voters but not just their own. Replace Boris and I think Tories lose any hope of the Red Wall, as that's a personal vote. Keep Boris and the Lib-Lab non-pact pact swings into full motion to get marginal Tories out. Not sure where the Tories go from here as I fully expect PR from a rainbow coalition, which will disproportionately disadvantage Tories.
PR would mean we would never have a socialist or even full social democratic Labour majority government ever again too. Even Attlee would not have won a majority under PR in 1945 nor would Wilson in 1966 nor Blair in 1997.
Hence the trade unions and Corbynites oppose PR as much as the Tory right. It would also see Corbynites split from Labour and form their own party with some of the Tory right joining RefUK who would also win seats under PR.
However almost every government would include the LDs a la 2010 to 2015
Tom Peck @tompeck · 1h I suppose what is actually historic is that it’s not merely Boris Johnson’s fault they lost the by-election, it’s also his fault they even had it.
This and this again. This was an entirely unforced error. The only reason we are discussing this at all this morning was a dinner at the Reform Club where he was persuaded to try and save Paterson. That shows a complete lack of political judgment that should worry Tories more than anything else. He has just pissed huge amount of political capital up the wall for nothing.
That's what's so stupid about it all. Had he simply let Paterson take his punishment, this would never have happened.
What's even more stupid is that if Paterson had been willing to take his punishment he would still be an MP and would end up in the Lords at some point.
Instead he has been utterly disgraced and become a synonym for sleazy politicians.
During the whole grotty plan nobody seems to have wondered what would happen if things didn't go as they wanted.
Boris, very much like Trump. They inspire voters but not just their own. Replace Boris and I think Tories lose any hope of the Red Wall, as that's a personal vote. Keep Boris and the Lib-Lab non-pact pact swings into full motion to get marginal Tories out. Not sure where the Tories go from here as I fully expect PR from a rainbow coalition, which will disproportionately disadvantage Tories.
There's a reasonable chance that a post-Boris Conservative Party can keep a hold of the Red Wall.
Its not purely a personal vote. The Red Wall is demographically increasingly Conservative. Increasingly the demographics of the Red Wall is people who own their own home and their own transport.
Ensure the Red Wall do even better at owning their own home and their own transport and why would they be keen to move back to Labour?
Boris helped the Red Wall reach a tipping point, but the demographics were there before him. There's no reason its guaranteed to tip back now.
One of the most consistently underestimated themes for this UK government is the extent to which they want to be the closest possible partners of the US, and their disappointment that this is not happening. Entire swathes of Brexit and trade policy are dominated by this.
I assume that’s partly on the back of that embarrassing Penny Mordaunt speech? If this current mob are still in charge by 2024 I can see them praying for the return of Trump.
What good will it do them? Trump did not seem all that interested in anything outside the USA.
In one respect, Trump was a GOOD President - he did not start any foreign wars.
Insofar as Trump had a coherent international policy including the UK, it appeared to be based on him being excited by Brexit. If PM Truss can do a bit of arsecrawling and dangle another visit with King Charles in front of him, Trump might be enticed into another petulant trade war with the EU.
Indeed, but if Trump has form for anything in trade deals, it is ripping them up rather than signing new ones.
Boris, very much like Trump. They inspire voters but not just their own. Replace Boris and I think Tories lose any hope of the Red Wall, as that's a personal vote. Keep Boris and the Lib-Lab non-pact pact swings into full motion to get marginal Tories out. Not sure where the Tories go from here as I fully expect PR from a rainbow coalition, which will disproportionately disadvantage Tories.
Trump's vote is way more inelastic than Boris. In the USA the republican party could take a shit on every one of their voter's doormats and most would still vote for them. That's not the case in the UK.
Boris, very much like Trump. They inspire voters but not just their own. Replace Boris and I think Tories lose any hope of the Red Wall, as that's a personal vote. Keep Boris and the Lib-Lab non-pact pact swings into full motion to get marginal Tories out. Not sure where the Tories go from here as I fully expect PR from a rainbow coalition, which will disproportionately disadvantage Tories.
You mean it would remove their disproportionate advantage.
As Mike points out in the header, Labour haven’t gained a seat from the Tories at a by-election since Corby in 2012.
The public aren’t happy with the government, but they’re not convinced by Labour. Yet.
What? Whistling in the dark. It is an unmitigated rout. Life long Tories are utterly furious. The PMs own missteps have created a defeat of historic proportions. Ignore this final warning and the Conservatives are heading for a sellacking that could dwarf 1997.
I think there are interesting parallels between Johnson and Corbyn. Corbyn's achievement in 2017 was genuinely astonishing, and unexpected. He still lost, but what a close thing it was. But two years later and events had shown him up for what he was. Combined with the shenanigans over Brexit, and a public that saw Boris as different and fresh (for all that he wasn't really fresh, and definitely isn't different), and the Tories won a resounding victory, and Corbyn was buried. Now, two years on (and what a couple of years - no-one could have foreseen covid, or that we would still be grappling with it now after a year of mass vaccination), the shine has come off the turd that is Johnson and the public sees him as he really is. He doesn't give a shit about you and I, the only thing that matters is him being world king and sticking his member into as many blondes as he can. If he stays as leader of the Tories I think they could well be utterly smashed, except it won't quite be 1997 - Scotland will have vast hordes of SNP, and in RUK there will not be enough Labour seats for a majority, so it will inevitably be a coalition or C&S.
Can the Tories prevent this? Changing the leader is fine, but recent times have shown that too many Tory MP's really haven't changed - they are still the venal, grasping wankers we've always seen. Whenever they are in power too long the shit rises to the top.
Change the leader, and possibly the Tories might cling on, assuming covid is well on its way to being less serious (not impossible). Is there a charismatic, young Tory who could re-invigorate the party while in power? Or do they need once again to get kicked out to go and have a real hard think about things again...
This result is not a shock of surprise to anyone who has even a small understanding of history. I think this result though will ensure that there will not be an early election before enactment of the boundary changes.
So at the next election we will see an outworking of
- Possible Brexit party unwinding - Boundary changes
These should help the Tories to an extent
- Unwinding of anti Corbyn vote (stay at home, LDs - back to labour) - Unwinding of pro Cornyn vote (Labour to green and fringes stay at home) - Tory Sleaze - Desire for change
These should help Labour
The one main issue that could change his leadership - Labour look locked in to SKS, but Tories could remove Boris if someone else can make the case. Starker doesn't have good personal numbers so if the Tories switched to a better narrative - say Javid and his growing up in a poor area of Bristol above his immigrant parents shop - and if they can get to a point where levelling up is more than a slogan, and is showing some intent - not necessarily spades in the ground as large investment can take years, but masterplan / planning permissions stage would certainly be something that could be sold to voters by incumbent MPs.
As ever the government hold the cards hence why votes to back to them towards elections.
Brexit, it would seem, is no longer Mr Johnson’s ‘safe place.’ It is little remarked upon, but Starmer has managed to free himself of the label of ‘Remainer in chief.’ Just one in four Remain voters believe that the UK re-joining the EU in the next ten years is at all likely. For a leader whose biggest problem when first running for leader was his association with Remain, it is a remarkable fact that only one in five Leave voters think that Keir Starmer’s Labour Party want the UK to rejoin.
Labour are even beginning to weaponise Brexit. Starmer’s new line, debuted last month, is ‘Make Brexit work’. As time passes and the pandemic (hopefully) recedes, the UK’s continued stuttering economic performance will be harder to blame on lockdown... over a third of Leave voters now feel that the cost of living has been negatively affected by leaving the EU.
All this is growing evidence that, just as Labour’s acquiescence on Brexit aged badly from 2017 to 2019, Boris Johnson’s Brexit boosterism is more difficult to pull off now than it was in December 2019. Appeals to simple Brexit divisions — tempting as they might become for a beleaguered Prime Minister — are increasingly likely to feel as if they come from a different era of British politics.
Nearly 22 hours since I got my booster - Pfizer - and apart from a tiny bit of soreness where I was jabbed I feel fine. Long may it continue!
Meant to be having mine this evening - then straight out running Saturday morning. And Sunday morning as well. Fingers crossed...
Fingers crossed for you too. But don't overdo it.
I had my Pfizer yesterday morning. I've just come back from a seven-mile run, and am in bed feeling dizzy and a bit nauseous. And my harm hurts like *******.
But at least I've got today's run over with, and the little 'un's going to school so I can just sleep.
Good man.
I had both my AZ's without suffering any side effects at all, but I'm not taking anything for granted.
Certainly if I do end up feeling like death warmed over I'll be staying home for the weekend. Won't be any use for cross country if I'm vax zonked. I run with all the elegance and vitesse of a tortoise wading through treacle at the best of times.
Wow! As speedy as a tortoise wading through treacle! I'm at the sloth crossing a busy motorway stage. At least, that's how I feel at the moment. Rather flat ...
I'm actually a really slow runner, but I do seem able to maintain regular reasonable distances. And I am nearly fifty, so I can always blame age.
(Although it's rather embarrassing when I get overtaken by an evidently much older man...)
I’m also of the slow runner clan. For many reasons I just don’t seem able to run that fast, even at my fittest. Resting heart rate low fifties, but carrying too much weight. Best 5k time 26 minutes, best 10k 55 min. But a few years ago happy to churn out (slow) half marathons. I find you exploits inspiring. Do you never get injured?
Thanks for that.
Your times are about my best as well. My neighbour - over ten years younger than me - can do a 10k in 40 minutes. We never run together. I also never do official runs - I think if I did I'd get carried along, and might manage a sub 50-min 10K. That's my target.
As for injury: I got a minor niggle a couple of years ago, but this year I've had no real issues. I think only one blister as well. My guess is that I've been lucky, and the fact I used to be a long-distance walker means my feet and legs are used to regular exercise. I'm terrified of my ankle injury coming back, but so far - fingers crossed - it's been fine.
If anything, I have fewer injuries whilst going through one of my manic walking or running phases: if I don't do too much for a month, then I start getting back and other pains from lounging around ...
Thats very interesting. My wife has completed over 20 marathons (enough to have lost count). Along the way we became aware of the 100 marathon club, essentially nutters who do marathons all the time. Most people who do an odd marathon (bucket list thing, or raise money for a charity) cannot conceive of doing 100+ (and indeed many hundreds of marathons) but these guys don't really 'race' anywhere - they mainly just like plodding round really long runs. I've heard of them doing 4 in a week (sat, sun, wed and sun for instance). I think there is something to be said for conditioning the body to regular exercise like this, as long as it is a steady effort, and that sound very much like what you do. Top work!
Thanks. I'm considering (no more than that) doing a Marathon distance to complete this insanity on Jan 1st or 2nd. It'll probably depend on weather, covid etc. I've never run that far before (have walked it many times, though).
A few years back, Mrs J was running the Grand Union Canal half marathon. I waited near the end and started chatting with a gentleman whose wife was running. She had just retired at 52, and was doing 52 half-marathons in the year - all official ones. She was trying to do one a week, and they were driving all over the country to get to them. Apparently it was hard to find scheduled ones during November and December, so they were thinking of going abroad for a few as well.
I really admire that sort of insanity.
edit: and congrats to your wife as well!
Hah seems we're all about the same slow pace. I got a 5k pb of 23:15 in the summer but am nowhere near that now. Think last night's 9.5k (club) run was about 5:50 pace (Unwatched) and that was a real slog. (Killamarsh to Beighton and back @JosiasJessop ) I should probably sign up for another half at some point.
One good thing in the last few months - races returning. Although even there the silly covid theatre reigns. At a local 10K, where everyone was inside a hall in the build up to the race, they had a wave start to keep people apart OUTSIDE...
People really do not have a clue about proper risk assessment...
I can't see how anyone can pull together a 2024 Brexit coalition from the ashes of the burnt promises of Boris's Oven-ready Brexit deal.
This is the key, and also why the Brexiteers keep saying Brexit is over.
What they mean is "Please, please, please stop talking about Brexit in case anyone actually looks at what a steaming pile of crap it is"
None of my identified 3 groups are happy. The Singaporers have got MORE taxes not less, the Msercantilers have more cost and faff than ever, and the Workers Collective have less money than they had before. Even then "jam tomorrow" dog whistles like "we'll get rid of the ECJ" are falling apart because no we won't.
Whats left? Yosemite?
Your Workers Collective have full employment and higher wages.
They also see new houses being built which will be bought by themselves or their kids.
So why do so many of them feel worse off? A few truckers being paid more isn't the entire working class - little has improved for most, inflation is running away and they're about to get slammed by a big tax cut.
And you make the same mistake on houses as Philip does. Red wall Brexiteers voted Tory and independent at both national and local level to STOP these houses being built. They don't want them. Roads are congested, schools and hospitals are full. They don't need more people. So they vote for the candidates - Tories and independents - who say they will stop the people responsible - Labour.
I live in the Red Wall and have never heard complaints about more houses being built.
In mining areas, at least, new developments, whether they are housing or industrial, are a sign of increasing prosperity and are welcomed.
As for pay rises there's plenty of them in manufacturing and construction currently - maybe different in the public sector and some services.
I tend to agree that new building in a lot of these constituencies has driven the rise in Conservative support.
As to North Shropshire, it's hard to see the result as undeserved.
May do in some areas. But where I am from the Tories campaign successfully against the blight of new homes.
Stockton though has a unique set of circumstances - the infrastructure just doesn't exist to support the new estates and the Tees makes adding that infrastructure incredibly expensive.
Thats hardly unique, or accurate when the homes are being built in Ingleby or the bottom end of Yarm, or the massive "Darlington Back Lane development. Plenty of space there. But new houses blight existing areas - which is why Tories campaign against them. There isn't any money for new roads. Or schools. Or hospitals. Which are all needed for new homes. So the homes get built and everyone in the area suffers.
You haven't built very many new housing estates in the UK, clearly.
Here, and everywhere I know, the cost of new school places and the rest etc is all met by the builder of the housing estate.
IMO that is unfair on the FTBs who mainly buy the houses, as they will pick up part of the cost rather than it going through Council Tax.
I haven't, and it would appear that my experiences on Teesside and on either side of my bit of the Pennines are not indicative of ex mining areas. That they are different isn't a surprise. But with respect to developers funding roads, schools etc if that is true in principle why isn't it done in practice? Paying for the immediate bit of tarmac to tie new estate onto existing road is not remotely the same as funding the new roads needed to cope with the new traffic.
Interesting result, which I got wrong. Some wait and see is required, but overall it increases the chance of the centre left majority in the electorate operating efficiently enough to win.
Part of the 'wait and see' is that the chance of Boris being leader at the next GE is much smaller, and so the area of known unknowns is increased.
A Tory problem is: can they win from the more populist right (again). If the answer is not, then One Nation leadership from the overcrowded centre is the better option - bit it is a risk.
Apart from Brexit Boris is not governing from the right but from the centre. It was Partygate which cost him last night not being too right-wing, indeed he needed Labour votes to get vaxports through and is spending more than any Tory PM since Macmillan
And for all the characterisation of Red Wall Tory voters as right-wing, they were tempted as much by the promise of levelling up and sunlit uplands as Getting Brexit Done at a "stop faffing around and do what we told you" level.
If the Tories replace Boris with a Spartan-type who goes back to austerity, through choice or otherwise, I think they'll soon find out how welcome that is in Hartlepool (if not North Shropshire).
As often happens when parties are in a "this isn't working, we must do something" mood, the diagnosis and treatment devised by MPs/activists may not match that of the voters they need to keep/attract.
You haven't built very many new housing estates in the UK, clearly.
Here, and everywhere I know, the cost of new school places and the rest etc is all met by the builder of the housing estate.
Um, kind of.
Our local district council (West Oxfordshire) is proposing that the five massive "strategic development sites" in the area will be entirely exempt from Community Infrastructure Levy, because otherwise they would be uneconomic for the builders. (This is trivially disprovable but that's another story.)
So although the new school places will be funded by the builders, the "and the rest" won't be.
If the builders overpaid for the land - surely that's their problem and not the local councils.
Boris, very much like Trump. They inspire voters but not just their own. Replace Boris and I think Tories lose any hope of the Red Wall, as that's a personal vote. Keep Boris and the Lib-Lab non-pact pact swings into full motion to get marginal Tories out. Not sure where the Tories go from here as I fully expect PR from a rainbow coalition, which will disproportionately disadvantage Tories.
PR would mean we would never have a socialist or even full social democratic Labour majority government ever again too. Even Attlee would not have won a majority under PR in 1945 nor would Wilson in 1966 nor Blair in 1997.
Hence the trade unions and Corbynites oppose PR as much as the Tory right. It would also see Corbynites split from Labour and form their own party with some of the Tory right joining RefUK who would also win seats under PR.
However almost every government would include the LDs a la 2010 to 2015
I think FPTP could be defended when the parties were broader churches. Now that political parties are pretty much only joined by glassy-eyed ideological automata, often on the fringes be that right or left and delivering MPs that mirror that, the prospect of mushy centrism, sometimes a bit more left, sometimes a bit more right, but generally balanced and reflecting the views of the moderate majority, very appealing.
Nah, Lib Dems win protest by-elections. It isn't news.
This result is about as meaningful as Brecon and Radnorshire, won by the Lib Dems a few months before the Tories won an 80 seat majority.
Doesn't this feel different to you?
Paterson could just be a black Wednesday moment for the Tories, a pinch point where everything goes horribly wrong thereafter. I did think the inch-high, inch-perfect Sunak would return the Tory doubters to the fold for the next GE, but he too has just ****** on his chips.
The BBC are under instruction to make light of Conservative travails but ITV (even Ant and Dec) Sky, Chanel 4, 5, and the print media are relentless. And, I don't do much social media, but every day I get a comedy WhatsApp about Partygate, or Boris Johnson or the Conservatives.
No it doesn't feel different to me, in fact why I was so positive the Lib Dems would win and why I had money on it was that this was the perfect storm of a by-election.
Not just a mid-term by election, but a midterm by-election when the government has just kicked sand in the face of its supporters (tax rises and restrictions coming back) and the by-election was triggered by scandal with Paterson.
You couldn't get a much more ideal midterm by-election if you tried. That's why I knew the Lib Dems would win and justifiably so.
But midterms aren't General Elections. The 2024 General Election isn't going to be centred upon Owen Paterson.
As Chancellor Norman Lamont so adroitly observed, the next General Election isn't going to be centred around Black Wednesday.
Nearly 22 hours since I got my booster - Pfizer - and apart from a tiny bit of soreness where I was jabbed I feel fine. Long may it continue!
Meant to be having mine this evening - then straight out running Saturday morning. And Sunday morning as well. Fingers crossed...
Fingers crossed for you too. But don't overdo it.
I had my Pfizer yesterday morning. I've just come back from a seven-mile run, and am in bed feeling dizzy and a bit nauseous. And my harm hurts like *******.
But at least I've got today's run over with, and the little 'un's going to school so I can just sleep.
Good man.
I had both my AZ's without suffering any side effects at all, but I'm not taking anything for granted.
Certainly if I do end up feeling like death warmed over I'll be staying home for the weekend. Won't be any use for cross country if I'm vax zonked. I run with all the elegance and vitesse of a tortoise wading through treacle at the best of times.
Wow! As speedy as a tortoise wading through treacle! I'm at the sloth crossing a busy motorway stage. At least, that's how I feel at the moment. Rather flat ...
I'm actually a really slow runner, but I do seem able to maintain regular reasonable distances. And I am nearly fifty, so I can always blame age.
(Although it's rather embarrassing when I get overtaken by an evidently much older man...)
I’m also of the slow runner clan. For many reasons I just don’t seem able to run that fast, even at my fittest. Resting heart rate low fifties, but carrying too much weight. Best 5k time 26 minutes, best 10k 55 min. But a few years ago happy to churn out (slow) half marathons. I find you exploits inspiring. Do you never get injured?
Thanks for that.
Your times are about my best as well. My neighbour - over ten years younger than me - can do a 10k in 40 minutes. We never run together. I also never do official runs - I think if I did I'd get carried along, and might manage a sub 50-min 10K. That's my target.
As for injury: I got a minor niggle a couple of years ago, but this year I've had no real issues. I think only one blister as well. My guess is that I've been lucky, and the fact I used to be a long-distance walker means my feet and legs are used to regular exercise. I'm terrified of my ankle injury coming back, but so far - fingers crossed - it's been fine.
If anything, I have fewer injuries whilst going through one of my manic walking or running phases: if I don't do too much for a month, then I start getting back and other pains from lounging around ...
Thats very interesting. My wife has completed over 20 marathons (enough to have lost count). Along the way we became aware of the 100 marathon club, essentially nutters who do marathons all the time. Most people who do an odd marathon (bucket list thing, or raise money for a charity) cannot conceive of doing 100+ (and indeed many hundreds of marathons) but these guys don't really 'race' anywhere - they mainly just like plodding round really long runs. I've heard of them doing 4 in a week (sat, sun, wed and sun for instance). I think there is something to be said for conditioning the body to regular exercise like this, as long as it is a steady effort, and that sound very much like what you do. Top work!
Thanks. I'm considering (no more than that) doing a Marathon distance to complete this insanity on Jan 1st or 2nd. It'll probably depend on weather, covid etc. I've never run that far before (have walked it many times, though).
A few years back, Mrs J was running the Grand Union Canal half marathon. I waited near the end and started chatting with a gentleman whose wife was running. She had just retired at 52, and was doing 52 half-marathons in the year - all official ones. She was trying to do one a week, and they were driving all over the country to get to them. Apparently it was hard to find scheduled ones during November and December, so they were thinking of going abroad for a few as well.
I really admire that sort of insanity.
edit: and congrats to your wife as well!
Hah seems we're all about the same slow pace. I got a 5k pb of 23:15 in the summer but am nowhere near that now. Think last night's 9.5k (club) run was about 5:50 pace (Unwatched) and that was a real slog. (Killamarsh to Beighton and back @JosiasJessop ) I should probably sign up for another half at some point.
My fastest 10k is 46 minutes. Mind you that was (checks - oh!) coming up to a decade ago. 2 hour half in 2018.
My biggest problem has been dialling down the pace for longer distances. I struggled with the first 10k training as I was used to popping out 5k in 20 minutes - I couldn't keep that pace up for 10k, but it seemed unnatural to slow down too.
One of the most consistently underestimated themes for this UK government is the extent to which they want to be the closest possible partners of the US, and their disappointment that this is not happening. Entire swathes of Brexit and trade policy are dominated by this.
I assume that’s partly on the back of that embarrassing Penny Mordaunt speech? If this current mob are still in charge by 2024 I can see them praying for the return of Trump.
What good will it do them? Trump did not seem all that interested in anything outside the USA.
In one respect, Trump was a GOOD President - he did not start any foreign wars.
Insofar as Trump had a coherent international policy including the UK, it appeared to be based on him being excited by Brexit. If PM Truss can do a bit of arsecrawling and dangle another visit with King Charles in front of him, Trump might be enticed into another petulant trade war with the EU.
Indeed, but if Trump has form for anything in trade deals, it is ripping them up rather than signing new ones.
Trump will not save the Tories.
Oh, I’m not saying he’d save them but the current strain of Toryism (if it can still be called that) is burning through options like Nero with a flamethrower.
Boris, very much like Trump. They inspire voters but not just their own. Replace Boris and I think Tories lose any hope of the Red Wall, as that's a personal vote. Keep Boris and the Lib-Lab non-pact pact swings into full motion to get marginal Tories out. Not sure where the Tories go from here as I fully expect PR from a rainbow coalition, which will disproportionately disadvantage Tories.
There's a reasonable chance that a post-Boris Conservative Party can keep a hold of the Red Wall.
Its not purely a personal vote. The Red Wall is demographically increasingly Conservative. Increasingly the demographics of the Red Wall is people who own their own home and their own transport.
Ensure the Red Wall do even better at owning their own home and their own transport and why would they be keen to move back to Labour?
Boris helped the Red Wall reach a tipping point, but the demographics were there before him. There's no reason its guaranteed to tip back now.
Look at Ben Houchen's success in Teesside. The Levelling-Up agenda has immense electoral potential. Boris needs to push it hard and be everywhere in a hard hat.
Nah, Lib Dems win protest by-elections. It isn't news.
This result is about as meaningful as Brecon and Radnorshire, won by the Lib Dems a few months before the Tories won an 80 seat majority.
Doesn't this feel different to you?
Paterson could just be a black Wednesday moment for the Tories, a pinch point where everything goes horribly wrong thereafter. I did think the inch-high, inch-perfect Sunak would return the Tory doubters to the fold for the next GE, but he too has just ****** on his chips.
The BBC are under instruction to make light of Conservative travails but ITV (even Ant and Dec) Sky, Chanel 4, 5, and the print media are relentless. And, I don't do much social media, but every day I get a comedy WhatsApp about Partygate, or Boris Johnson or the Conservatives.
No it doesn't feel different to me, in fact why I was so positive the Lib Dems would win and why I had money on it was that this was the perfect storm of a by-election.
Not just a mid-term by election, but a midterm by-election when the government has just kicked sand in the face of its supporters (tax rises and restrictions coming back) and the by-election was triggered by scandal with Paterson.
You couldn't get a much more ideal midterm by-election if you tried. That's why I knew the Lib Dems would win and justifiably so.
But midterms aren't General Elections. The 2024 General Election isn't going to be centred upon Owen Paterson.
As Chancellor Norman Lamont so adroitly observed, the next General Election isn't going to be centred around Black Wednesday.
You really think that Owen Paterson and Black Wednesday are in the same league?
PCR results back in - both positive. My lateral flow barely registers a line now, my wife's is clear. Think we must either have had it for ages already or we got a tiny infection.
My mum said she's feeling better this morning too, sister reported no symptoms on the video call either. B-i-L seems to be the only one who's got any actual symptoms left.
Surely now the Tories will get rid of Boris. He's a liability.
True.
But who is there, and what concrete things do they do, that turn this around for the government?
A fresh face and a bit of coherence are necessary, but I'm not sure they are sufficient.
I can't answer the first question, on the second it's easy. Stop partying in lockdown, stop giving away crony contracts and get some more competent advisors. That alone will change things.
Have some joined up policies across government that actually support "build back better" and "levelling up". Sell the levelling up agenda across the South and Sw as a strategy to alleviate pressure on public services.
As Mike points out in the header, Labour haven’t gained a seat from the Tories at a by-election since Corby in 2012.
The public aren’t happy with the government, but they’re not convinced by Labour. Yet.
You think that the absolute collapse of the Tory vote in a seat they have held since 1906 is somehow good for the party?
Labour cannot win a majority without Scotland. So they need the LDs to take as many seats off the Tories as possible. That they could pull this off by such a large margin puts scores of seats into play.
The more LD seats, the fewer Tory votes that the Starmer government needs to beat.
The reek of Johnson is permeating the Tory brand in a way that we haven't seen since Thatcher. The future of Johnson is the future of the Tories. SKS is making the correct strategic decision leaning over backwards to appeal to Tory voters even if it isn't attractive to the the centre left. They are there for the taking.
I think Johnson is potentially far more toxic than Thatcher. There is nothing beyond Johnson himself, whereas with Thatcher there was a coherent philosophy that did deliver meaningful results. Her personal popularity was never her selling point. It is all that Johnson has. And the problem is that he is what he is: a bone idle, lying, self-centred, chancer.
That's true but the reason she was so toxic were her moral judgements which had little to do with domestic politics. Her love for Pinochet. Her support of Reagan's adventurism in South America. Section 28. Her tacit support for Apartheid in South Africa etc etc No real domestic issues. Those were just par for the course with Tory Governments.
Nearly 22 hours since I got my booster - Pfizer - and apart from a tiny bit of soreness where I was jabbed I feel fine. Long may it continue!
Meant to be having mine this evening - then straight out running Saturday morning. And Sunday morning as well. Fingers crossed...
Fingers crossed for you too. But don't overdo it.
I had my Pfizer yesterday morning. I've just come back from a seven-mile run, and am in bed feeling dizzy and a bit nauseous. And my harm hurts like *******.
But at least I've got today's run over with, and the little 'un's going to school so I can just sleep.
Good man.
I had both my AZ's without suffering any side effects at all, but I'm not taking anything for granted.
Certainly if I do end up feeling like death warmed over I'll be staying home for the weekend. Won't be any use for cross country if I'm vax zonked. I run with all the elegance and vitesse of a tortoise wading through treacle at the best of times.
Wow! As speedy as a tortoise wading through treacle! I'm at the sloth crossing a busy motorway stage. At least, that's how I feel at the moment. Rather flat ...
I'm actually a really slow runner, but I do seem able to maintain regular reasonable distances. And I am nearly fifty, so I can always blame age.
(Although it's rather embarrassing when I get overtaken by an evidently much older man...)
I’m also of the slow runner clan. For many reasons I just don’t seem able to run that fast, even at my fittest. Resting heart rate low fifties, but carrying too much weight. Best 5k time 26 minutes, best 10k 55 min. But a few years ago happy to churn out (slow) half marathons. I find you exploits inspiring. Do you never get injured?
Thanks for that.
Your times are about my best as well. My neighbour - over ten years younger than me - can do a 10k in 40 minutes. We never run together. I also never do official runs - I think if I did I'd get carried along, and might manage a sub 50-min 10K. That's my target.
As for injury: I got a minor niggle a couple of years ago, but this year I've had no real issues. I think only one blister as well. My guess is that I've been lucky, and the fact I used to be a long-distance walker means my feet and legs are used to regular exercise. I'm terrified of my ankle injury coming back, but so far - fingers crossed - it's been fine.
If anything, I have fewer injuries whilst going through one of my manic walking or running phases: if I don't do too much for a month, then I start getting back and other pains from lounging around ...
Thats very interesting. My wife has completed over 20 marathons (enough to have lost count). Along the way we became aware of the 100 marathon club, essentially nutters who do marathons all the time. Most people who do an odd marathon (bucket list thing, or raise money for a charity) cannot conceive of doing 100+ (and indeed many hundreds of marathons) but these guys don't really 'race' anywhere - they mainly just like plodding round really long runs. I've heard of them doing 4 in a week (sat, sun, wed and sun for instance). I think there is something to be said for conditioning the body to regular exercise like this, as long as it is a steady effort, and that sound very much like what you do. Top work!
Thanks. I'm considering (no more than that) doing a Marathon distance to complete this insanity on Jan 1st or 2nd. It'll probably depend on weather, covid etc. I've never run that far before (have walked it many times, though).
A few years back, Mrs J was running the Grand Union Canal half marathon. I waited near the end and started chatting with a gentleman whose wife was running. She had just retired at 52, and was doing 52 half-marathons in the year - all official ones. She was trying to do one a week, and they were driving all over the country to get to them. Apparently it was hard to find scheduled ones during November and December, so they were thinking of going abroad for a few as well.
I really admire that sort of insanity.
edit: and congrats to your wife as well!
Hah seems we're all about the same slow pace. I got a 5k pb of 23:15 in the summer but am nowhere near that now. Think last night's 9.5k (club) run was about 5:50 pace (Unwatched) and that was a real slog. (Killamarsh to Beighton and back @JosiasJessop ) I should probably sign up for another half at some point.
My fastest 10k is 46 minutes. Mind you that was (checks - oh!) coming up to a decade ago. 2 hour half in 2018.
My biggest problem has been dialling down the pace for longer distances. I struggled with the first 10k training as I was used to popping out 5k in 20 minutes - I couldn't keep that pace up for 10k, but it seemed unnatural to slow down too.
I have fallen out of running and switched to walking. Being in lockdown during a week of nice weather has me pining to get back out and restart my efforts. Will be slow and painful. But I will do it.
My best? 5k 29:30, 10k about an hour and 5. Much slower than many, but I am not and never have been built for running...
Boris, very much like Trump. They inspire voters but not just their own. Replace Boris and I think Tories lose any hope of the Red Wall, as that's a personal vote. Keep Boris and the Lib-Lab non-pact pact swings into full motion to get marginal Tories out. Not sure where the Tories go from here as I fully expect PR from a rainbow coalition, which will disproportionately disadvantage Tories.
There's a reasonable chance that a post-Boris Conservative Party can keep a hold of the Red Wall.
Its not purely a personal vote. The Red Wall is demographically increasingly Conservative. Increasingly the demographics of the Red Wall is people who own their own home and their own transport.
Ensure the Red Wall do even better at owning their own home and their own transport and why would they be keen to move back to Labour?
Boris helped the Red Wall reach a tipping point, but the demographics were there before him. There's no reason its guaranteed to tip back now.
Look at Ben Houchen's success in Teesside. The Levelling-Up agenda has immense electoral potential. Boris needs to push it hard and be everywhere in a hard hat.
Yes if anything is why Boris is going to fail its that he doesn't seem to be in a hard hat enough, rather than too much.
If it were up to me, I'd be advising he get cracking on new motorways and plenty of other opportunities for development. He's walking the walk, he doesn't seem to be talking the talk though.
PCR results back in - both positive. My lateral flow barely registers a line now, my wife's is clear. Think we must either have had it for ages already or we got a tiny infection.
My mum said she's feeling better this morning too, sister reported no symptoms on the video call either. B-i-L seems to be the only one who's got any actual symptoms left.
Good news and all power to vaccines/prior infection. If we weren't testing would this have affected your life? thats the end point we need to get to.
One of the most consistently underestimated themes for this UK government is the extent to which they want to be the closest possible partners of the US, and their disappointment that this is not happening. Entire swathes of Brexit and trade policy are dominated by this.
I assume that’s partly on the back of that embarrassing Penny Mordaunt speech? If this current mob are still in charge by 2024 I can see them praying for the return of Trump.
What good will it do them? Trump did not seem all that interested in anything outside the USA.
In one respect, Trump was a GOOD President - he did not start any foreign wars.
Just massively increased drone strikes and eliminated civilian death reporting requirements in the conflicts they were involved in.
I can't see how anyone can pull together a 2024 Brexit coalition from the ashes of the burnt promises of Boris's Oven-ready Brexit deal.
This is the key, and also why the Brexiteers keep saying Brexit is over.
What they mean is "Please, please, please stop talking about Brexit in case anyone actually looks at what a steaming pile of crap it is"
None of my identified 3 groups are happy. The Singaporers have got MORE taxes not less, the Msercantilers have more cost and faff than ever, and the Workers Collective have less money than they had before. Even then "jam tomorrow" dog whistles like "we'll get rid of the ECJ" are falling apart because no we won't.
Whats left? Yosemite?
Your Workers Collective have full employment and higher wages.
They also see new houses being built which will be bought by themselves or their kids.
So why do so many of them feel worse off? A few truckers being paid more isn't the entire working class - little has improved for most, inflation is running away and they're about to get slammed by a big tax cut.
And you make the same mistake on houses as Philip does. Red wall Brexiteers voted Tory and independent at both national and local level to STOP these houses being built. They don't want them. Roads are congested, schools and hospitals are full. They don't need more people. So they vote for the candidates - Tories and independents - who say they will stop the people responsible - Labour.
I live in the Red Wall and have never heard complaints about more houses being built.
In mining areas, at least, new developments, whether they are housing or industrial, are a sign of increasing prosperity and are welcomed.
As for pay rises there's plenty of them in manufacturing and construction currently - maybe different in the public sector and some services.
I tend to agree that new building in a lot of these constituencies has driven the rise in Conservative support.
As to North Shropshire, it's hard to see the result as undeserved.
May do in some areas. But where I am from the Tories campaign successfully against the blight of new homes.
Stockton though has a unique set of circumstances - the infrastructure just doesn't exist to support the new estates and the Tees makes adding that infrastructure incredibly expensive.
Thats hardly unique, or accurate when the homes are being built in Ingleby or the bottom end of Yarm, or the massive "Darlington Back Lane development. Plenty of space there. But new houses blight existing areas - which is why Tories campaign against them. There isn't any money for new roads. Or schools. Or hospitals. Which are all needed for new homes. So the homes get built and everyone in the area suffers.
You haven't built very many new housing estates in the UK, clearly.
Here, and everywhere I know, the cost of new school places and the rest etc is all met by the builder of the housing estate.
IMO that is unfair on the FTBs who mainly buy the houses, as they will pick up part of the cost rather than it going through Council Tax.
I haven't, and it would appear that my experiences on Teesside and on either side of my bit of the Pennines are not indicative of ex mining areas. That they are different isn't a surprise. But with respect to developers funding roads, schools etc if that is true in principle why isn't it done in practice? Paying for the immediate bit of tarmac to tie new estate onto existing road is not remotely the same as funding the new roads needed to cope with the new traffic.
I think that the cost bit is the wrong way around. A house builder can see how much they will get for a house, and what section 106 money they will have to contribute. This means that rather than FTB paying it is an indirect land tax - the valuation of the land will be lower in the first place.
Johnson just looks dreadful at the mo. Tired, as the Doctor would say.
I'm sure there is potential for a recovery as others suggest, but it's no better than 1/3. He's never been a loser before. Christmas will make or break him.
Nearly 22 hours since I got my booster - Pfizer - and apart from a tiny bit of soreness where I was jabbed I feel fine. Long may it continue!
Meant to be having mine this evening - then straight out running Saturday morning. And Sunday morning as well. Fingers crossed...
Fingers crossed for you too. But don't overdo it.
I had my Pfizer yesterday morning. I've just come back from a seven-mile run, and am in bed feeling dizzy and a bit nauseous. And my harm hurts like *******.
But at least I've got today's run over with, and the little 'un's going to school so I can just sleep.
Good man.
I had both my AZ's without suffering any side effects at all, but I'm not taking anything for granted.
Certainly if I do end up feeling like death warmed over I'll be staying home for the weekend. Won't be any use for cross country if I'm vax zonked. I run with all the elegance and vitesse of a tortoise wading through treacle at the best of times.
Wow! As speedy as a tortoise wading through treacle! I'm at the sloth crossing a busy motorway stage. At least, that's how I feel at the moment. Rather flat ...
I'm actually a really slow runner, but I do seem able to maintain regular reasonable distances. And I am nearly fifty, so I can always blame age.
(Although it's rather embarrassing when I get overtaken by an evidently much older man...)
I’m also of the slow runner clan. For many reasons I just don’t seem able to run that fast, even at my fittest. Resting heart rate low fifties, but carrying too much weight. Best 5k time 26 minutes, best 10k 55 min. But a few years ago happy to churn out (slow) half marathons. I find you exploits inspiring. Do you never get injured?
Thanks for that.
Your times are about my best as well. My neighbour - over ten years younger than me - can do a 10k in 40 minutes. We never run together. I also never do official runs - I think if I did I'd get carried along, and might manage a sub 50-min 10K. That's my target.
As for injury: I got a minor niggle a couple of years ago, but this year I've had no real issues. I think only one blister as well. My guess is that I've been lucky, and the fact I used to be a long-distance walker means my feet and legs are used to regular exercise. I'm terrified of my ankle injury coming back, but so far - fingers crossed - it's been fine.
If anything, I have fewer injuries whilst going through one of my manic walking or running phases: if I don't do too much for a month, then I start getting back and other pains from lounging around ...
Thats very interesting. My wife has completed over 20 marathons (enough to have lost count). Along the way we became aware of the 100 marathon club, essentially nutters who do marathons all the time. Most people who do an odd marathon (bucket list thing, or raise money for a charity) cannot conceive of doing 100+ (and indeed many hundreds of marathons) but these guys don't really 'race' anywhere - they mainly just like plodding round really long runs. I've heard of them doing 4 in a week (sat, sun, wed and sun for instance). I think there is something to be said for conditioning the body to regular exercise like this, as long as it is a steady effort, and that sound very much like what you do. Top work!
Thanks. I'm considering (no more than that) doing a Marathon distance to complete this insanity on Jan 1st or 2nd. It'll probably depend on weather, covid etc. I've never run that far before (have walked it many times, though).
A few years back, Mrs J was running the Grand Union Canal half marathon. I waited near the end and started chatting with a gentleman whose wife was running. She had just retired at 52, and was doing 52 half-marathons in the year - all official ones. She was trying to do one a week, and they were driving all over the country to get to them. Apparently it was hard to find scheduled ones during November and December, so they were thinking of going abroad for a few as well.
I really admire that sort of insanity.
edit: and congrats to your wife as well!
Hah seems we're all about the same slow pace. I got a 5k pb of 23:15 in the summer but am nowhere near that now. Think last night's 9.5k (club) run was about 5:50 pace (Unwatched) and that was a real slog. (Killamarsh to Beighton and back @JosiasJessop ) I should probably sign up for another half at some point.
My fastest 10k is 46 minutes. Mind you that was (checks - oh!) coming up to a decade ago. 2 hour half in 2018.
My biggest problem has been dialling down the pace for longer distances. I struggled with the first 10k training as I was used to popping out 5k in 20 minutes - I couldn't keep that pace up for 10k, but it seemed unnatural to slow down too.
I have fallen out of running and switched to walking. Being in lockdown during a week of nice weather has me pining to get back out and restart my efforts. Will be slow and painful. But I will do it.
My best? 5k 29:30, 10k about an hour and 5. Much slower than many, but I am not and never have been built for running...
I've made the opposite journey: my real love is walking, but having a little 'un in the house means I cannot escape for a week at a time. So I switched from walking to running. But I really want to get back to walking. There are a couple of National Trails I've yet to do, and I've always had a hankering to do the coast again...
The latter needs a year though, so not until the little 'un's fled the nest. Or otherwise it'll be divorce and castration. At best
PCR results back in - both positive. My lateral flow barely registers a line now, my wife's is clear. Think we must either have had it for ages already or we got a tiny infection.
My mum said she's feeling better this morning too, sister reported no symptoms on the video call either. B-i-L seems to be the only one who's got any actual symptoms left.
Great to hear. Does the PCR say what flavour you have had
Congratulations to @Philip_Thompson for his betting last night as the odds flipped back and forth for no rational reason whatsoever. I loved one of Philip's later comments (and I think it had only just completely dawned on him the full grand extent of the nonsense TV and Twitter reporting before even a ballot box had been opened, even though he was successfully exploiting it). It went something along the lines of 'Nobody has a clue do they?'. Excellent job of betting against people reacting to rumours based upon no facts whatsoever.
I was surprised by people being taken in by Libby Weiner's comments on the 10 o'clock news (looking at you HYUFD), when not all the ballot boxes would have arrived let alone opened at that point.
Boris, very much like Trump. They inspire voters but not just their own. Replace Boris and I think Tories lose any hope of the Red Wall, as that's a personal vote. Keep Boris and the Lib-Lab non-pact pact swings into full motion to get marginal Tories out. Not sure where the Tories go from here as I fully expect PR from a rainbow coalition, which will disproportionately disadvantage Tories.
How does a proportional system disproportionately disadvantage anyone? Remove a disproportionate advantage they take for granted, sure.
Boris, very much like Trump. They inspire voters but not just their own. Replace Boris and I think Tories lose any hope of the Red Wall, as that's a personal vote. Keep Boris and the Lib-Lab non-pact pact swings into full motion to get marginal Tories out. Not sure where the Tories go from here as I fully expect PR from a rainbow coalition, which will disproportionately disadvantage Tories.
PR would mean we would never have a socialist or even full social democratic Labour majority government ever again too. Even Attlee would not have won a majority under PR in 1945 nor would Wilson in 1966 nor Blair in 1997.
Hence the trade unions and Corbynites oppose PR as much as the Tory right. It would also see Corbynites split from Labour and form their own party with some of the Tory right joining RefUK who would also win seats under PR.
However almost every government would include the LDs a la 2010 to 2015
Would it though? I suspect the Greens will get a massive boost. And probably then change away from their uber-radical agenda to something more European. The LD Orange Bookers could ally themselves more closely with the Tory wets, whilst the right-wing Tories may not be so comfortable in a centre-right party.
What wonderful news to wake up to. Happy political moments have been vanishingly rare for me in recent years.
I wonder if NS shows that there is more than one type of Brexit vote. This is a traditional, livestock dominated, rural marches seat. Classically conservative, but very different from Hartlepool or Mansfield. Brexit may have become much less salient in Shropshire (and Herefordshire, Somerset, Devon) but perhaps it and the culture wars still retain their power in places further North and East.
I grew up in the Marches and it was never a hotbed of anti immigrant sentiment or wartime nostalgia. But it was also deeply unimpressed by metropolitan types.
To use a French analogy, the sort of place that might happily vote for Pecresse but not Le Pen. As those presidential maps show across the livestock farming regions across the Massif Central.
A great post. I think there three main groupings: "Singapore-on-Thames" - the hard right low tax low regulation state where the plebs get to work long hours in unsafe conditions for the betterment of their masters "Mercantile Britain" - lets be freed from restrictions about how we farm / fish / make stuff so that we can be more competitive "Workers Collective of Britain" - better jobs with better pay and conditions for me, flag and country patriotism
The first group and the third group are directly contradictory. The plebs that the John Redwoods of the world want to exploit with Brexit are the workers who expect to be paid more and treated better by the likes of John Redwood thanks to Brexit.
And the Mercantilers in the middle just want to make, sell, do. They wanted rid of the perceived red tape of the EU and things like the CAP and CFP.
Are any of these groups happy now? Higher taxes all round, a temporary spike in wages for a few small groups and everyone else feeling worse off, and mountains of red tape making even what they made / grew / sold before more expensive and harder.
I can't see how anyone can pull together a 2024 Brexit coalition from the ashes of the burnt promises of Boris's Oven-ready Brexit deal.
I think this is quite an astute post in terms of the categorisations, at least as far as an economic division of Brexit goes. I would fall firmly into the second category and yes I am very happy with Brexit. It is not perfect but then only fools expect perfection. But it still beats what we had before by a very long way.
Appreciate the nod. Quick question on your place in the Mercantile group - are you one of the people who is actually doing the mercantiling? You have to work very very hard to find happy voices out there who actually produce and trade stuff. There undoubtedly are some, but few, and massively outweighed by those who think vast increases in red tape and cost and reduced worker numbers is a Bad Thing.
Yep I have a small company that makes and sells model vehicles. That is in addition to my main career providing consultancy services. There is a bit more obvious paperwork when dealing with the EU but mostly that has been an up front process which is now in place. But as a country we are now removed from vast swathes of present and future rules and regulations on a wider scale outside of commerce which for me is a good thing.
Of course the economics of this has never for me been the point of it so it is easier for me to claim satisfaction and I would still have pushed for EFTA membership. But like I said, I never expected perfection.
I see the opposite side, I used to buy models from Europe and now they either don't sell to UK or prices are horrendous due to them having to do all the VAT/customs paperwork etc. Many of the models you couldnot get here or they were hideously expensive due to niche type. An absolute clusterfcuk.
While there is some commentary on “tactical voting” isn’t the bigger picture former Tory voters voting LD? Whether they will continue to do so or return to the Tories is the big unknown for the GE - if Johnson is still leading, then the chances are they may not return.
The question for me is will enough of the switchers stay switched and will that, combined with any tactical voting, be enough to get the Tories out next time? I hope so but I’m not confident.
English voters will be subject to scare stories at the next GE of a potential unholy alliance of Lab/LD/SNP. That may work to round up enough potential switchers back to the Blue team.
But is that enough now to scare the horses? Sturgeon’s had a good pandemic, she has good ratings in England, doesn’t she?
Yes.
‘Nicola Sturgeon is England's favourite political leader, poll finds’
Indeed, she seems more popular South of the border than North of it at times!.
I have often thought that if the Scots want independence, they should hold the referendum south of the border
Certainly will not be one while Sturgeon is on the throne, she wants Baw Jaws backing for some fancy sinecure abroad so will be lots of bluster but no rocking the boat. She has to get her fancy post before covid is over or she will be out of excuses.
Good morning Malcolm! How is sunny Scotland this morning?
Hello Bev, not much sun about today , a bit grey but at least dry and I am very well. I hope you are well. @Beibheirli_C
I can't see how anyone can pull together a 2024 Brexit coalition from the ashes of the burnt promises of Boris's Oven-ready Brexit deal.
This is the key, and also why the Brexiteers keep saying Brexit is over.
What they mean is "Please, please, please stop talking about Brexit in case anyone actually looks at what a steaming pile of crap it is"
None of my identified 3 groups are happy. The Singaporers have got MORE taxes not less, the Msercantilers have more cost and faff than ever, and the Workers Collective have less money than they had before. Even then "jam tomorrow" dog whistles like "we'll get rid of the ECJ" are falling apart because no we won't.
Whats left? Yosemite?
Your Workers Collective have full employment and higher wages.
They also see new houses being built which will be bought by themselves or their kids.
So why do so many of them feel worse off? A few truckers being paid more isn't the entire working class - little has improved for most, inflation is running away and they're about to get slammed by a big tax cut.
And you make the same mistake on houses as Philip does. Red wall Brexiteers voted Tory and independent at both national and local level to STOP these houses being built. They don't want them. Roads are congested, schools and hospitals are full. They don't need more people. So they vote for the candidates - Tories and independents - who say they will stop the people responsible - Labour.
I live in the Red Wall and have never heard complaints about more houses being built.
In mining areas, at least, new developments, whether they are housing or industrial, are a sign of increasing prosperity and are welcomed.
As for pay rises there's plenty of them in manufacturing and construction currently - maybe different in the public sector and some services.
The red wall isn't uniform of course. My old parts of the red wall (on both the Lancashire and Yorkshire sides) are very very anti-new houses. Being associated with giving planning permission has been a political death sentence for various councillors I can think of. Tory leaflets campaign against Labour building houses everywhere.
There are pay rises where there is a shortage of labour. But as they are rapidly feeding through into inflation the people who haven't had 35% rises - and thats most people - just wonder why they're worse off. And then the tax rises kick in next April.
Inflation is 5% not 35%.
And I suspect for many people they would rather have a 5% pay rise and 5% inflation than a 1% pay rise and 1% inflation.
In any case lots of people are doing pretty nicely currently and they tend to be working class.
Its that aspect which annoys many middle class people.
Golly, you think pay is always in perfect lockstep with inflation? Can I guess that you are well under 50?
Unfortunately pay has been in near lockstep with inflation for the last 15 or so years.
Whether the era or pay rising faster than inflation will return I can but hope.
Comments
And, on last night's result has anyone heard from the PM on the matter?
But all the claims and predictions about empty supermarkets have been proved false for years all the way back to strawberries.
Pigs in blankets are only the Christmas manifestation of these scare stories:
2019 https://www.thesun.co.uk/money/10226655/pigs-in-blankets-shortage-christmas/
2020 https://www.examinerlive.co.uk/news/local-news/pigs-blankets-shortage-supermarkets-shoppers-19327986
2021 https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-faces-christmas-without-pigs-in-blankets-as-labor-shortage-hits/
I predict that next August people will start predicting a pigs in blankets shortage for Christmas 2022.
As for Boris I still stand by my prediction that he's stand down next summer'ish.
Everyone I know who knows him rates him very highly and according to Facebook posts by my ultra Cons friends he is close to the second coming.
So got to be some kind of chance in there and he's 44s on bf.
In one respect, Trump was a GOOD President - he did not start any foreign wars.
Also note - remember before his big political comeback he lost weight, got a decent haircut and looked smarter? The last couple of videos have shown him to look like he’s just rolled out of bed. Image matters and he looks like he can’t give a shit
Not just a mid-term by election, but a midterm by-election when the government has just kicked sand in the face of its supporters (tax rises and restrictions coming back) and the by-election was triggered by scandal with Paterson.
You couldn't get a much more ideal midterm by-election if you tried. That's why I knew the Lib Dems would win and justifiably so.
But midterms aren't General Elections. The 2024 General Election isn't going to be centred upon Owen Paterson.
This is an Honorius situation. Better off rid of him, and sooner rather than later.
Whether the era or pay rising faster than inflation will return I can but hope.
But, yes, they are probably the right party in the circumstances to build a broad anti government vote - moreso than the LDs who I can understand being reluctant because of the offence it might cause in GE target seats.
Putative Green voters elsewhere won't give two figs.
What case of abuse of position is forthcoming and so obviously bad that Paterson's case had to be used to justify the immediate redesign of Parliament's Disciplinary Processes?
When you look at it that way protection Paterson became the only option. And the fact the attempt to rewrite Parliament's Disciplinary process failed highlights why Boris may have to decide to leave sooner rather than later
In midterm by-elections Labour should be looking to do better than it did in 2005. Just as the Lib Dems did better last night. The fact Labour can't stir past that is weakness not strength.
And now we have the grubby spectacle of the MPs pretending to themselves and everyone else that Boris deserves one last chance and can still be a success going forwards.
They are mad if they wait until after the locals. It’s another chance for lifelong Tory voters to tick a different box rather than just stay away, and once those voters cross the rubicon, they can’t ever be taken for granted again.
The leadership contenders are the worst of all. We all know that you’re grubby and full of ego and would piss on your firstborn to get into the hot seat. So stop with the faux loyalty and get busy knifing.
Even twatter has given up pretending that there are empty shelves.
No, I don't expect they will, either.
I should probably sign up for another half at some point.
And especially where we can have a competitive advantage where the EuCo is sclerotic.
This is the invisible hand in action.
That the invisible had has worked, that the markets have done their job, that the companies have done their job, is a success for the free market not a failure. The invisible hand works.
https://unherd.com/2021/12/the-battle-for-north-shropshire/ https://twitter.com/henrymance/status/1471772914383003649/photo/1
ATM watching the Tories is like watching a decent tennis player constantly doing much less well through unforced errors. Toe curling. Chap called Tim was bad this way sometimes.
Here, and everywhere I know, the cost of new school places and the rest etc is all met by the builder of the housing estate.
IMO that is unfair on the FTBs who mainly buy the houses, as they will pick up part of the cost rather than it going through Council Tax.
His problem is that his 2019 intake were too junior to really climb the ranks. But a smart politician really keen on levelling up and building on the 2019 foundations would have said that by 2 years into the Parliament they’d be promoting more of the red wall Tories into government. The individuals at the upper echelons of the party are still either remnants from the Cameron generation or speak to traditional Tory stereotypes, by and large.
If you’re going to build such a diverse coalition as what Boris did in 2019, it’s tricky to keep them all on the bus. Blair did it through promising and delivering (particularly in the 1997-2005 era) economic security. Boris hasn’t had that luck: he’s had a crisis instead. But he could’ve done a lot more to cater to the broad church than he has been doing.
Fantastic for those who bought their homes in the past, not so good for anyone younger than them.
The only thing worse than inflation, is no inflation it seems.
Cons = Delta
Labour = Alpha
Johnson needs to find a capable person to run his government for him, or else the Tories need to find a different PM who can.
The opposition is not so formidable that the government cannot recover. But someone in government has to act.
Our local district council (West Oxfordshire) is proposing that the five massive "strategic development sites" in the area will be entirely exempt from Community Infrastructure Levy, because otherwise they would be uneconomic for the builders. (This is trivially disprovable but that's another story.)
So although the new school places will be funded by the builders, the "and the rest" won't be.
Argyll & Bute: Lomond North - Conservative hold
based on first preference votes
Paul Collins (Scottish Conservative and Unionist) – 742 (+11.3%)
Ken Smith (Scottish National Party) – 459 (+5.0%)
Mark Irvine (Independent) – 418 (from nowhere)
Robert MacIntyre (Independent) – 204 (+0.5%)
Swing: SNP to Conservative 3¼% since 2017 and 5¼% since 2012 and 8¾% since 2007.
BTW - Boris won't be going anywhere. Tories are always extremely vulnerable when challenged by LibDems in high profile by-elections, even when in opposition, never mind government. I was mildly surprised at how well they did in Old Bexley. The really surprising by-election was Hartlepool. It's when there are big swings to Labour that the Tories will need to worry. They'll regain North Shropshire at the GE. Even so, a bloody nose for Boris, and he's fortunate that we are going into Xmas recess.
Hence the trade unions and Corbynites oppose PR as much as the Tory right. It would also see Corbynites split from Labour and form their own party with some of the Tory right joining RefUK who would also win seats under PR.
However almost every government would include the LDs a la 2010 to 2015
Instead he has been utterly disgraced and become a synonym for sleazy politicians.
During the whole grotty plan nobody seems to have wondered what would happen if things didn't go as they wanted.
Its not purely a personal vote. The Red Wall is demographically increasingly Conservative. Increasingly the demographics of the Red Wall is people who own their own home and their own transport.
Ensure the Red Wall do even better at owning their own home and their own transport and why would they be keen to move back to Labour?
Boris helped the Red Wall reach a tipping point, but the demographics were there before him. There's no reason its guaranteed to tip back now.
Trump will not save the Tories.
That's not the case in the UK.
So at the next election we will see an outworking of
- Possible Brexit party unwinding
- Boundary changes
These should help the Tories to an extent
- Unwinding of anti Corbyn vote (stay at home, LDs - back to labour)
- Unwinding of pro Cornyn vote (Labour to green and fringes stay at home)
- Tory Sleaze
- Desire for change
These should help Labour
The one main issue that could change his leadership - Labour look locked in to SKS, but Tories could remove Boris if someone else can make the case. Starker doesn't have good personal numbers so if the Tories switched to a better narrative - say Javid and his growing up in a poor area of Bristol above his immigrant parents shop - and if they can get to a point where levelling up is more than a slogan, and is showing some intent - not necessarily spades in the ground as large investment can take years, but masterplan / planning permissions stage would certainly be something that could be sold to voters by incumbent MPs.
As ever the government hold the cards hence why votes to back to them towards elections.
Brexit, it would seem, is no longer Mr Johnson’s ‘safe place.’ It is little remarked upon, but Starmer has managed to free himself of the label of ‘Remainer in chief.’ Just one in four Remain voters believe that the UK re-joining the EU in the next ten years is at all likely. For a leader whose biggest problem when first running for leader was his association with Remain, it is a remarkable fact that only one in five Leave voters think that Keir Starmer’s Labour Party want the UK to rejoin.
Labour are even beginning to weaponise Brexit. Starmer’s new line, debuted last month, is ‘Make Brexit work’. As time passes and the pandemic (hopefully) recedes, the UK’s continued stuttering economic performance will be harder to blame on lockdown... over a third of Leave voters now feel that the cost of living has been negatively affected by leaving the EU.
All this is growing evidence that, just as Labour’s acquiescence on Brexit aged badly from 2017 to 2019, Boris Johnson’s Brexit boosterism is more difficult to pull off now than it was in December 2019. Appeals to simple Brexit divisions — tempting as they might become for a beleaguered Prime Minister — are increasingly likely to feel as if they come from a different era of British politics.
People really do not have a clue about proper risk assessment...
If the Tories replace Boris with a Spartan-type who goes back to austerity, through choice or otherwise, I think they'll soon find out how welcome that is in Hartlepool (if not North Shropshire).
As often happens when parties are in a "this isn't working, we must do something" mood, the diagnosis and treatment devised by MPs/activists may not match that of the voters they need to keep/attract.
- 60% of respondents took additional measures beyond government guidelines to keep themselves and others safe from #COVID19
- 29% felt isolation guidance for double-vaccinated people was insufficient to keep the public safe
http://ow.ly/jymt50HcUtg
https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1471774889380130819?s=20
My biggest problem has been dialling down the pace for longer distances. I struggled with the first 10k training as I was used to popping out 5k in 20 minutes - I couldn't keep that pace up for 10k, but it seemed unnatural to slow down too.
To quote John McEnroe You can not be serious!
My mum said she's feeling better this morning too, sister reported no symptoms on the video call either. B-i-L seems to be the only one who's got any actual symptoms left.
My best? 5k 29:30, 10k about an hour and 5. Much slower than many, but I am not and never have been built for running...
If it were up to me, I'd be advising he get cracking on new motorways and plenty of other opportunities for development. He's walking the walk, he doesn't seem to be talking the talk though.
This thread has lost its seat.
I'm sure there is potential for a recovery as others suggest, but it's no better than 1/3. He's never been a loser before. Christmas will make or break him.
The latter needs a year though, so not until the little 'un's fled the nest. Or otherwise it'll be divorce and castration. At best
I was surprised by people being taken in by Libby Weiner's comments on the 10 o'clock news (looking at you HYUFD), when not all the ballot boxes would have arrived let alone opened at that point.