The new MP read history at Trinity College, Cambridge.
I read detective novels philosophy at Trinity College, Cambridge.
Does anyone know when Ms Morgan, née Halcrow was at Trinity?
She’s 46 so she’d have started in 1992 or 1993 depending on gap years etc
I'm 46 and started uni in 1994.
Depends on when in the year her birthday is; i.e. academic years. Someone born before the end of August would be expected, gap years ignored, to be at Uni the year before someone born after September 1st.
Spare a thought for the pb.com tories who defended O-Patz as if they were at the Siege of Stalingrad in the 24 hours before Johnson u-turned and abandoned him.
But the Tories have a majority of 80, it's legal and right.
Brexit and woke was mentioned above. Brexit works for the Tories now in reverse as their Brexit deal is repeatedly punching people in the bollocks whilst the ideologues say "now we're free of the EU they have finally stopped punching you in the bollocks"
And woke? How can you have a culture war, claiming that the other is threatening your traditional British values whilst you corruptly hand vast contracts to your mates with no tender and go the UN to talk to the world about how Kermit the Frog mistreated Miss Piggy?
Yes its a byelection, yes people vote tactically and yes the kind of LibDem army have seen won't be repeated. But - look at all the seats which are similar to NS where the LDs are a lot closer than they were here in 2nd. Wouldn't need a 34% swing to remove various big name Tories...
I suspect that you are reading too much into this. I doubt that the vote had anything much to do with either Brexit or the broader, tedious landscape of culture wars.
The key factor is that the Prime Minister is useless and people, even in traditional Tory areas, are getting sick of him. That, and fatigue with the slog of this interminable pandemic.
Thats literally my point. For weeks the defence has been "this is a Brexit seat, they won't vote for remoaners." Yes they will - Brexit works in reverse now for many, especially in farming and fishing areas.
And its been "the LibDems are too woke for traditional Tories". As you point out, with a PM this useless how can they try and portray the other as the threat to their traditional British values?
Ed Davey on the radio 3 minutes ago saying it was nothing to do with Brexit...
I thought it would be a Con hold, though maybe not by much.
Boris gone? Not sure it will happen in a hurry but it has to be before the next election or they could be reduced to a handful of seats.
We can always hope!
Personally, I am glad I was wrong and I am equally glad to see that the voters of NS would not elect anyone just because they wore a blue rosette - or even a turnip or monkey so attired
Poor O-Patz, he didn't get an appellate process that the truly gullible parroted on here as well, which Boris Johnson subsequently admitted was bollocks.
Now the court of public opinion has spoken, #WillOfThePeople
Anyhoo I feel much more confident on my wager with a friend that Boris Johnson's tenure will be shorter than David Cameron.
I'm regretting I didn't go for a tenure shorter than Theresa May's.
I don't expect a VONC this week.
Hard to see how there isn't one in January now.
Any thoughts on what margin of victory he needs to survive (in the real world)? I would say if 110 vote against him he's going to have to throw in the towel.
The new MP read history at Trinity College, Cambridge.
I read detective novels philosophy at Trinity College, Cambridge.
Does anyone know when Ms Morgan, née Halcrow was at Trinity?
She’s 46 so she’d have started in 1992 or 1993 depending on gap years etc
I'm 46 and started uni in 1994.
Depends on when in the year her birthday is; i.e. academic years. Someone born before the end of August would be expected, gap years ignored, to be at Uni the year before someone born after September 1st.
Though Cambridge isn’t too fussy - I was born in early September and still started there in the year of my 18th birthday (I’d skipped a year of primary school and carried that all the way through).
Good result as expected but a lot of overreaction around the future of the PM. Sadly it means by election winnings have to go into backing the PM to hang around.
Anyhoo I feel much more confident on my wager with a friend that Boris Johnson's tenure will be shorter than David Cameron.
I'm regretting I didn't go for a tenure shorter than Theresa May's.
I don't expect a VONC this week.
Hard to see how there isn't one in January now.
Any thoughts on what margin of victory he needs to survive (in the real world)? I would say if 110 vote against him he's going to have to throw in the towel.
To be honest, I'm expecting a VONC after the locals or if he tries to for another lockdown.
Anyhoo I feel much more confident on my wager with a friend that Boris Johnson's tenure will be shorter than David Cameron.
I'm regretting I didn't go for a tenure shorter than Theresa May's.
I don't expect a VONC this week.
Hard to see how there isn't one in January now.
Any thoughts on what margin of victory he needs to survive (in the real world)? I would say if 110 vote against him he's going to have to throw in the towel.
He needs a margin of one.
Remember that, according to the party rules, his successful passing of a vote of confidence precludes a challenge for a period 12 months.
Unlike Theresa May, the PM is unlikely to find his own MPs unwilling to pass flagship policies.
While there is some commentary on “tactical voting” isn’t the bigger picture former Tory voters voting LD? Whether they will continue to do so or return to the Tories is the big unknown for the GE - if Johnson is still leading, then the chances are they may not return.
The question for me is will enough of the switchers stay switched and will that, combined with any tactical voting, be enough to get the Tories out next time? I hope so but I’m not confident.
English voters will be subject to scare stories at the next GE of a potential unholy alliance of Lab/LD/SNP. That may work to round up enough potential switchers back to the Blue team.
But is that enough now to scare the horses? Sturgeon’s had a good pandemic, she has good ratings in England, doesn’t she?
Yes.
‘Nicola Sturgeon is England's favourite political leader, poll finds’
Neil Shastri-Hunt kept on banging on that he was a doctor, the public didn't like that, he should have banged on that he was a lawyer, then he would have won a landslide.
While there is some commentary on “tactical voting” isn’t the bigger picture former Tory voters voting LD? Whether they will continue to do so or return to the Tories is the big unknown for the GE - if Johnson is still leading, then the chances are they may not return.
The question for me is will enough of the switchers stay switched and will that, combined with any tactical voting, be enough to get the Tories out next time? I hope so but I’m not confident.
English voters will be subject to scare stories at the next GE of a potential unholy alliance of Lab/LD/SNP. That may work to round up enough potential switchers back to the Blue team.
But is that enough now to scare the horses? Sturgeon’s had a good pandemic, she has good ratings in England, doesn’t she?
Yes.
‘Nicola Sturgeon is England's favourite political leader, poll finds’
The new MP read history at Trinity College, Cambridge.
I read detective novels philosophy at Trinity College, Cambridge.
Does anyone know when Ms Morgan, née Halcrow was at Trinity?
She’s 46 so she’d have started in 1992 or 1993 depending on gap years etc
I'm 46 and started uni in 1994.
Depends on when in the year her birthday is; i.e. academic years. Someone born before the end of August would be expected, gap years ignored, to be at Uni the year before someone born after September 1st.
Though Cambridge isn’t too fussy - I was born in early September and still started there in the year of my 18th birthday (I’d skipped a year of primary school and carried that all the way through).
Doing that isn't easy in the State school system AIUI, which can result, of course, in the early years. in children born in August 'competing' in class with children born almost a year earlier. OK for the brightest, but can be a problem for those not so fortunate.
While there is some commentary on “tactical voting” isn’t the bigger picture former Tory voters voting LD? Whether they will continue to do so or return to the Tories is the big unknown for the GE - if Johnson is still leading, then the chances are they may not return.
The question for me is will enough of the switchers stay switched and will that, combined with any tactical voting, be enough to get the Tories out next time? I hope so but I’m not confident.
English voters will be subject to scare stories at the next GE of a potential unholy alliance of Lab/LD/SNP. That may work to round up enough potential switchers back to the Blue team.
But is that enough now to scare the horses? Sturgeon’s had a good pandemic, she has good ratings in England, doesn’t she?
Yes.
‘Nicola Sturgeon is England's favourite political leader, poll finds’
Neil Shastri-Hunt kept on banging on that he was a doctor, the public didn't like that, he should have banged on that he was a lawyer, then he would have won a landslide.
I would like to think that this marks the death of the phrase “I’ve been very clear that…”, which Shastri-Hunt resorted to every time anyone asked him a tricky question.
Brexit and woke was mentioned above. Brexit works for the Tories now in reverse as their Brexit deal is repeatedly punching people in the bollocks whilst the ideologues say "now we're free of the EU they have finally stopped punching you in the bollocks"
And woke? How can you have a culture war, claiming that the other is threatening your traditional British values whilst you corruptly hand vast contracts to your mates with no tender and go the UN to talk to the world about how Kermit the Frog mistreated Miss Piggy?
Yes its a byelection, yes people vote tactically and yes the kind of LibDem army have seen won't be repeated. But - look at all the seats which are similar to NS where the LDs are a lot closer than they were here in 2nd. Wouldn't need a 34% swing to remove various big name Tories...
I suspect that you are reading too much into this. I doubt that the vote had anything much to do with either Brexit or the broader, tedious landscape of culture wars.
The key factor is that the Prime Minister is useless and people, even in traditional Tory areas, are getting sick of him. That, and fatigue with the slog of this interminable pandemic.
Thats literally my point. For weeks the defence has been "this is a Brexit seat, they won't vote for remoaners." Yes they will - Brexit works in reverse now for many, especially in farming and fishing areas.
And its been "the LibDems are too woke for traditional Tories". As you point out, with a PM this useless how can they try and portray the other as the threat to their traditional British values?
Ed Davey on the radio 3 minutes ago saying it was nothing to do with Brexit...
And he's right - the "its a leaver seat they won't vote for remainers" defence no longer exists. People vote on the issues now, not on a referendum 5 and a half years ago.
While there is some commentary on “tactical voting” isn’t the bigger picture former Tory voters voting LD? Whether they will continue to do so or return to the Tories is the big unknown for the GE - if Johnson is still leading, then the chances are they may not return.
The question for me is will enough of the switchers stay switched and will that, combined with any tactical voting, be enough to get the Tories out next time? I hope so but I’m not confident.
English voters will be subject to scare stories at the next GE of a potential unholy alliance of Lab/LD/SNP. That may work to round up enough potential switchers back to the Blue team.
But is that enough now to scare the horses? Sturgeon’s had a good pandemic, she has good ratings in England, doesn’t she?
Yes.
‘Nicola Sturgeon is England's favourite political leader, poll finds’
Yes, but there was someone else who made the specific prediction more recently.
Twas the heavenly presence of the legendary Mark Senior who looks down on our proceedings and whispers to OGH on matters earthly by-election that immortal phrase .... "Winning Here"
Mark - Raise a glass of your favourite vodka. Much missed on PB.
The new MP read history at Trinity College, Cambridge.
I read detective novels philosophy at Trinity College, Cambridge.
Does anyone know when Ms Morgan, née Halcrow was at Trinity?
She’s 46 so she’d have started in 1992 or 1993 depending on gap years etc
I'm 46 and started uni in 1994.
Depends on when in the year her birthday is; i.e. academic years. Someone born before the end of August would be expected, gap years ignored, to be at Uni the year before someone born after September 1st.
Though Cambridge isn’t too fussy - I was born in early September and still started there in the year of my 18th birthday (I’d skipped a year of primary school and carried that all the way through).
Doing that isn't easy in the State school system AIUI, which can result, of course, in the early years. in children born in August 'competing' in class with children born almost a year earlier. OK for the brightest, but can be a problem for those not so fortunate.
Indeed. I believe it’s practically impossible now - at Mrs Capitano’s school there are several kids who’d benefit both socially and academically from changing year (whether up or down), but a system geared towards SATs and league tables is never going to allow that.
Anyhoo I feel much more confident on my wager with a friend that Boris Johnson's tenure will be shorter than David Cameron.
I'm regretting I didn't go for a tenure shorter than Theresa May's.
I don't expect a VONC this week.
Hard to see how there isn't one in January now.
Any thoughts on what margin of victory he needs to survive (in the real world)? I would say if 110 vote against him he's going to have to throw in the towel.
He needs a margin of one.
Remember that, according to the party rules, his successful passing of a vote of confidence precludes a challenge for a period 12 months.
Unlike Theresa May, the PM is unlikely to find his own MPs unwilling to pass flagship policies.
I think we do the vote of no confidence in the government first. On the floor of the Commons. Flush out the abstainers. Tories will win of course, but it will be fun seeing what their majority drops to.
Finally, some sense from the government on Northern Ireland. But it'll cause yet more trouble for Johnson, who foolishly raised the expectations of his most radicalised permanent Brexiters and must now explain this.
Jon Craig also noting her thanks to Labour supporters for lending their votes. What she said was that rather than formal agreements it happened by common sense 'at the ballot box'.
This is great: the wisest course of action to defeat this morass of Boris Johnson's blubbering, festering, regime.
Yes, that's very sensible, and will get her some more Labour votes at the GE. Many congratulations to the LibDems and their ground game army - fantastic result! And commiserations to the Labour guy or a respectable outcome - in the circumstances, I think getting a decent percentage without getting the way of the steamroller is exactly what was needed.
The only Tory consolation that I can see is the low turnout, which as I said a couple of days ago is what you might expect from a December election in the midst of scandals. Some of them will come back at a GE.
Anyhoo I feel much more confident on my wager with a friend that Boris Johnson's tenure will be shorter than David Cameron.
I'm regretting I didn't go for a tenure shorter than Theresa May's.
I don't expect a VONC this week.
Hard to see how there isn't one in January now.
Any thoughts on what margin of victory he needs to survive (in the real world)? I would say if 110 vote against him he's going to have to throw in the towel.
To be honest, I'm expecting a VONC after the locals or if he tries to for another lockdown.
As I've stated a few times this week, if the VONC is called before you 100% know the VONC goes against Boris, the Tories are then stuck with Boris for a whole year.
No sane MP is going to rush a VONC having seen what happened in December 2018.
Anyhoo I feel much more confident on my wager with a friend that Boris Johnson's tenure will be shorter than David Cameron.
I'm regretting I didn't go for a tenure shorter than Theresa May's.
I don't expect a VONC this week.
Hard to see how there isn't one in January now.
Any thoughts on what margin of victory he needs to survive (in the real world)? I would say if 110 vote against him he's going to have to throw in the towel.
He needs a margin of one.
Remember that, according to the party rules, his successful passing of a vote of confidence precludes a challenge for a period 12 months.
Unlike Theresa May, the PM is unlikely to find his own MPs unwilling to pass flagship policies.
A margin of one isn't going to be enough.
The official figure wasn't enough for Thatcher in 1990, or Major in 1995, or May in 2018.
Major survived by getting two votes more than he'd set as his private walk away figure. The others didn't. May tried and it wasn't a success.
As for his MPs not being willing to pass his policies, vaxports wave hello.
While there is some commentary on “tactical voting” isn’t the bigger picture former Tory voters voting LD? Whether they will continue to do so or return to the Tories is the big unknown for the GE - if Johnson is still leading, then the chances are they may not return.
The question for me is will enough of the switchers stay switched and will that, combined with any tactical voting, be enough to get the Tories out next time? I hope so but I’m not confident.
English voters will be subject to scare stories at the next GE of a potential unholy alliance of Lab/LD/SNP. That may work to round up enough potential switchers back to the Blue team.
But is that enough now to scare the horses? Sturgeon’s had a good pandemic, she has good ratings in England, doesn’t she?
Yes.
‘Nicola Sturgeon is England's favourite political leader, poll finds’
While there is some commentary on “tactical voting” isn’t the bigger picture former Tory voters voting LD? Whether they will continue to do so or return to the Tories is the big unknown for the GE - if Johnson is still leading, then the chances are they may not return.
The question for me is will enough of the switchers stay switched and will that, combined with any tactical voting, be enough to get the Tories out next time? I hope so but I’m not confident.
English voters will be subject to scare stories at the next GE of a potential unholy alliance of Lab/LD/SNP. That may work to round up enough potential switchers back to the Blue team.
But is that enough now to scare the horses? Sturgeon’s had a good pandemic, she has good ratings in England, doesn’t she?
Yes.
‘Nicola Sturgeon is England's favourite political leader, poll finds’
Finally, some sense from the government on Northern Ireland. But it'll cause yet more trouble for Johnson, who foolishly raised the expectations of his most radicalised permanent Brexiters and must now explain this.
While there is some commentary on “tactical voting” isn’t the bigger picture former Tory voters voting LD? Whether they will continue to do so or return to the Tories is the big unknown for the GE - if Johnson is still leading, then the chances are they may not return.
The question for me is will enough of the switchers stay switched and will that, combined with any tactical voting, be enough to get the Tories out next time? I hope so but I’m not confident.
English voters will be subject to scare stories at the next GE of a potential unholy alliance of Lab/LD/SNP. That may work to round up enough potential switchers back to the Blue team.
But is that enough now to scare the horses? Sturgeon’s had a good pandemic, she has good ratings in England, doesn’t she?
Yes.
‘Nicola Sturgeon is England's favourite political leader, poll finds’
The new MP read history at Trinity College, Cambridge.
I read detective novels philosophy at Trinity College, Cambridge.
Does anyone know when Ms Morgan, née Halcrow was at Trinity?
She’s 46 so she’d have started in 1992 or 1993 depending on gap years etc
I'm 46 and started uni in 1994.
Depends on when in the year her birthday is; i.e. academic years. Someone born before the end of August would be expected, gap years ignored, to be at Uni the year before someone born after September 1st.
Though Cambridge isn’t too fussy - I was born in early September and still started there in the year of my 18th birthday (I’d skipped a year of primary school and carried that all the way through).
Doing that isn't easy in the State school system AIUI, which can result, of course, in the early years. in children born in August 'competing' in class with children born almost a year earlier. OK for the brightest, but can be a problem for those not so fortunate.
Indeed. I believe it’s practically impossible now - at Mrs Capitano’s school there are several kids who’d benefit both socially and academically from changing year (whether up or down), but a system geared towards SATs and league tables is never going to allow that.
I have a great-nephew, born in August, who would definitely be helped if he could. One of my granddaughters, in another country, whose birthday is late August was quietly forgotten about, school-wise to two or three days. Consequently she's fine.
Brexit and woke was mentioned above. Brexit works for the Tories now in reverse as their Brexit deal is repeatedly punching people in the bollocks whilst the ideologues say "now we're free of the EU they have finally stopped punching you in the bollocks"
And woke? How can you have a culture war, claiming that the other is threatening your traditional British values whilst you corruptly hand vast contracts to your mates with no tender and go the UN to talk to the world about how Kermit the Frog mistreated Miss Piggy?
Yes its a byelection, yes people vote tactically and yes the kind of LibDem army have seen won't be repeated. But - look at all the seats which are similar to NS where the LDs are a lot closer than they were here in 2nd. Wouldn't need a 34% swing to remove various big name Tories...
I suspect that you are reading too much into this. I doubt that the vote had anything much to do with either Brexit or the broader, tedious landscape of culture wars.
The key factor is that the Prime Minister is useless and people, even in traditional Tory areas, are getting sick of him. That, and fatigue with the slog of this interminable pandemic.
Thats literally my point. For weeks the defence has been "this is a Brexit seat, they won't vote for remoaners." Yes they will - Brexit works in reverse now for many, especially in farming and fishing areas.
And its been "the LibDems are too woke for traditional Tories". As you point out, with a PM this useless how can they try and portray the other as the threat to their traditional British values?
Ed Davey on the radio 3 minutes ago saying it was nothing to do with Brexit...
And he's right - the "its a leaver seat they won't vote for remainers" defence no longer exists. People vote on the issues now, not on a referendum 5 and a half years ago.
For the next GE, certainly if the incumbent is still in charge, we should expect the govt to recreate the Brexit issue, so they are not voting about something in the past, but on current issues that are a proxy/continuation of Brexit.
Turns out my Dad's report at the weekend via Mattie Heaven on the front lines for the Tories was spot on. Think this was close pre partygate, and not really after
If Labour and the Lib Dems have a majority at the next election, the first thing they should do is repeal every law that has gone through the Home Office during this Parliament.
Good result as expected but a lot of overreaction around the future of the PM. Sadly it means by election winnings have to go into backing the PM to hang around.
It all feels a bit '92-'97.
And one of the things that kept JM as PM, even though he was doomed, was that there was no agreement on who would take over and do better.
Is BoJo the kind of man to plough on a lemming march over the cliff? Walking away is for losers, but I can't see a hedonist like Boris enduring three years of being unpopular.
Anyhoo I feel much more confident on my wager with a friend that Boris Johnson's tenure will be shorter than David Cameron.
I'm regretting I didn't go for a tenure shorter than Theresa May's.
I don't expect a VONC this week.
Hard to see how there isn't one in January now.
Any thoughts on what margin of victory he needs to survive (in the real world)? I would say if 110 vote against him he's going to have to throw in the towel.
I wouldn't expect Johnson to have any shame or dignity about leaving. It will be a Trumpian exit.
The new MP read history at Trinity College, Cambridge.
I read detective novels philosophy at Trinity College, Cambridge.
Does anyone know when Ms Morgan, née Halcrow was at Trinity?
She’s 46 so she’d have started in 1992 or 1993 depending on gap years etc
I'm 46 and started uni in 1994.
Depends on when in the year her birthday is; i.e. academic years. Someone born before the end of August would be expected, gap years ignored, to be at Uni the year before someone born after September 1st.
Though Cambridge isn’t too fussy - I was born in early September and still started there in the year of my 18th birthday (I’d skipped a year of primary school and carried that all the way through).
Doing that isn't easy in the State school system AIUI, which can result, of course, in the early years. in children born in August 'competing' in class with children born almost a year earlier. OK for the brightest, but can be a problem for those not so fortunate.
Indeed. I believe it’s practically impossible now - at Mrs Capitano’s school there are several kids who’d benefit both socially and academically from changing year (whether up or down), but a system geared towards SATs and league tables is never going to allow that.
I have a great-nephew, born in August, who would definitely be helped if he could. One of my granddaughters, in another country, whose birthday is late August was quietly forgotten about, school-wise to two or three days. Consequently she's fine.
While there is some commentary on “tactical voting” isn’t the bigger picture former Tory voters voting LD? Whether they will continue to do so or return to the Tories is the big unknown for the GE - if Johnson is still leading, then the chances are they may not return.
The question for me is will enough of the switchers stay switched and will that, combined with any tactical voting, be enough to get the Tories out next time? I hope so but I’m not confident.
English voters will be subject to scare stories at the next GE of a potential unholy alliance of Lab/LD/SNP. That may work to round up enough potential switchers back to the Blue team.
But is that enough now to scare the horses? Sturgeon’s had a good pandemic, she has good ratings in England, doesn’t she?
Yes.
‘Nicola Sturgeon is England's favourite political leader, poll finds’
Good result as expected but a lot of overreaction around the future of the PM. Sadly it means by election winnings have to go into backing the PM to hang around.
It all feels a bit '92-'97.
And one of the things that kept JM as PM, even though he was doomed, was that there was no agreement on who would take over and do better.
Is BoJo the kind of man to plough on a lemming march over the cliff? Walking away is for losers, but I can't see a hedonist like Boris enduring three years of being unpopular.
I've sent in so many negative LF test results recently that my phone now auto-fills the tick boxes. Mrs RP still showing a faint positive but is bright and cheery this morning.
Nearly 22 hours since I got my booster - Pfizer - and apart from a tiny bit of soreness where I was jabbed I feel fine. Long may it continue!
Meant to be having mine this evening - then straight out running Saturday morning. And Sunday morning as well. Fingers crossed...
Fingers crossed for you too. But don't overdo it.
I had my Pfizer yesterday morning. I've just come back from a seven-mile run, and am in bed feeling dizzy and a bit nauseous. And my harm hurts like *******.
But at least I've got today's run over with, and the little 'un's going to school so I can just sleep.
Good man.
I had both my AZ's without suffering any side effects at all, but I'm not taking anything for granted.
Certainly if I do end up feeling like death warmed over I'll be staying home for the weekend. Won't be any use for cross country if I'm vax zonked. I run with all the elegance and vitesse of a tortoise wading through treacle at the best of times.
Wow! As speedy as a tortoise wading through treacle! I'm at the sloth crossing a busy motorway stage. At least, that's how I feel at the moment. Rather flat ...
I'm actually a really slow runner, but I do seem able to maintain regular reasonable distances. And I am nearly fifty, so I can always blame age.
(Although it's rather embarrassing when I get overtaken by an evidently much older man...)
I’m also of the slow runner clan. For many reasons I just don’t seem able to run that fast, even at my fittest. Resting heart rate low fifties, but carrying too much weight. Best 5k time 26 minutes, best 10k 55 min. But a few years ago happy to churn out (slow) half marathons. I find you exploits inspiring. Do you never get injured?
Frosty the No Man turns out to be all fart and no follow through, again.
Britain has formally dropped its demand that Europe’s highest court should have no legal role in the controversial Northern Ireland protocol.
In a key concession to Brussels Lord Frost, the Brexit minister, will tell his EU counterpart today that Britain now accepts that the European Court of Justice (ECJ) must be allowed to interpret the protocol of the Brexit agreement.
Oh well, sounds like it’s the Christmas party cancellation season getting into full swing.
My wife’s company brunch ‘do’ binned this morning at three hours’ notice, after one of her colleagues tested positive overnight. Hopefully wifey and the rest of her company are all negative.
Brexit and woke was mentioned above. Brexit works for the Tories now in reverse as their Brexit deal is repeatedly punching people in the bollocks whilst the ideologues say "now we're free of the EU they have finally stopped punching you in the bollocks"
And woke? How can you have a culture war, claiming that the other is threatening your traditional British values whilst you corruptly hand vast contracts to your mates with no tender and go the UN to talk to the world about how Kermit the Frog mistreated Miss Piggy?
Yes its a byelection, yes people vote tactically and yes the kind of LibDem army have seen won't be repeated. But - look at all the seats which are similar to NS where the LDs are a lot closer than they were here in 2nd. Wouldn't need a 34% swing to remove various big name Tories...
I suspect that you are reading too much into this. I doubt that the vote had anything much to do with either Brexit or the broader, tedious landscape of culture wars.
The key factor is that the Prime Minister is useless and people, even in traditional Tory areas, are getting sick of him. That, and fatigue with the slog of this interminable pandemic.
Thats literally my point. For weeks the defence has been "this is a Brexit seat, they won't vote for remoaners." Yes they will - Brexit works in reverse now for many, especially in farming and fishing areas.
And its been "the LibDems are too woke for traditional Tories". As you point out, with a PM this useless how can they try and portray the other as the threat to their traditional British values?
Ed Davey on the radio 3 minutes ago saying it was nothing to do with Brexit...
And he's right - the "its a leaver seat they won't vote for remainers" defence no longer exists. People vote on the issues now, not on a referendum 5 and a half years ago.
For the next GE, certainly if the incumbent is still in charge, we should expect the govt to recreate the Brexit issue, so they are not voting about something in the past, but on current issues that are a proxy/continuation of Brexit.
What was needed in NS for a Tory hold wasn't Brexity Culture War stuff, it was simple competence and honesty.
Mrs Claypole went to meet a brexity friend in Somerset yesterday and her chat was all about how rubbish she and her lady friends in the village have found it to be. The electorate (much of it) know in their gut that it is a dud and are now going to punish its parents in an electoral act of hypocrisy having voted for the thing in the first place.
The last disciples however are the members of the Tory party so the future does not look bright for them. That is why Boris is no longer getting away with things that a year ago would have been dismissed as 'just Boris'
Genuine earthquake in #NorthShropshire, with huge swing to Lib Dems. And as @EdwardJDavey told @BBCr4today, that was despite an energetic local Labour campaign. Suggests voters don't need parties to 'go easy' on each other to work out which way to vote tactically.
The new MP read history at Trinity College, Cambridge.
I read detective novels philosophy at Trinity College, Cambridge.
Does anyone know when Ms Morgan, née Halcrow was at Trinity?
She’s 46 so she’d have started in 1992 or 1993 depending on gap years etc
I'm 46 and started uni in 1994.
Depends on when in the year her birthday is; i.e. academic years. Someone born before the end of August would be expected, gap years ignored, to be at Uni the year before someone born after September 1st.
Though Cambridge isn’t too fussy - I was born in early September and still started there in the year of my 18th birthday (I’d skipped a year of primary school and carried that all the way through).
Doing that isn't easy in the State school system AIUI, which can result, of course, in the early years. in children born in August 'competing' in class with children born almost a year earlier. OK for the brightest, but can be a problem for those not so fortunate.
Indeed. I believe it’s practically impossible now - at Mrs Capitano’s school there are several kids who’d benefit both socially and academically from changing year (whether up or down), but a system geared towards SATs and league tables is never going to allow that.
I have a great-nephew, born in August, who would definitely be helped if he could. One of my granddaughters, in another country, whose birthday is late August was quietly forgotten about, school-wise to two or three days. Consequently she's fine.
Out little 'un was born in late June. He's having no trouble competing academically, but in sports and some activities he's at an apparent real disadvantage over those nearly a year older. It's not too bad at the moment - he's only seven - but I think it'll get worse before his teens as more competitive sports begin.
Brexit and woke was mentioned above. Brexit works for the Tories now in reverse as their Brexit deal is repeatedly punching people in the bollocks whilst the ideologues say "now we're free of the EU they have finally stopped punching you in the bollocks"
And woke? How can you have a culture war, claiming that the other is threatening your traditional British values whilst you corruptly hand vast contracts to your mates with no tender and go the UN to talk to the world about how Kermit the Frog mistreated Miss Piggy?
Yes its a byelection, yes people vote tactically and yes the kind of LibDem army have seen won't be repeated. But - look at all the seats which are similar to NS where the LDs are a lot closer than they were here in 2nd. Wouldn't need a 34% swing to remove various big name Tories...
I suspect that you are reading too much into this. I doubt that the vote had anything much to do with either Brexit or the broader, tedious landscape of culture wars.
The key factor is that the Prime Minister is useless and people, even in traditional Tory areas, are getting sick of him. That, and fatigue with the slog of this interminable pandemic.
Thats literally my point. For weeks the defence has been "this is a Brexit seat, they won't vote for remoaners." Yes they will - Brexit works in reverse now for many, especially in farming and fishing areas.
And its been "the LibDems are too woke for traditional Tories". As you point out, with a PM this useless how can they try and portray the other as the threat to their traditional British values?
Ed Davey on the radio 3 minutes ago saying it was nothing to do with Brexit...
And he's right - the "its a leaver seat they won't vote for remainers" defence no longer exists. People vote on the issues now, not on a referendum 5 and a half years ago.
For the next GE, certainly if the incumbent is still in charge, we should expect the govt to recreate the Brexit issue, so they are not voting about something in the past, but on current issues that are a proxy/continuation of Brexit.
Perhaps. Their problem is that people will vote for a proxy issue when things are fine. "We want sovereignty" is an easy argument in good times. But I can't see many people opting for some kind of continuity Brexit war, where a principle they don;t understand is to be demanded as more worthy of their focus than the real issues and experiences of their lives..
Besides which, 5 years after Brexit was achieved would people have to be asked to wait another 5 years to finally achieve their goals? And which goals are those - Singapore-on-Thames or the Workers Collective?
Anyhoo I feel much more confident on my wager with a friend that Boris Johnson's tenure will be shorter than David Cameron.
I'm regretting I didn't go for a tenure shorter than Theresa May's.
I don't expect a VONC this week.
Hard to see how there isn't one in January now.
Any thoughts on what margin of victory he needs to survive (in the real world)? I would say if 110 vote against him he's going to have to throw in the towel.
He needs a margin of one.
Remember that, according to the party rules, his successful passing of a vote of confidence precludes a challenge for a period 12 months.
Unlike Theresa May, the PM is unlikely to find his own MPs unwilling to pass flagship policies.
I think we do the vote of no confidence in the government first. On the floor of the Commons. Flush out the abstainers. Tories will win of course, but it will be fun seeing what their majority drops to.
Couldn’t see more than a handful of already-retiring abstainers. Anyone who’s intending to stand as a Conservative at the next election, will be in favour of Conservatives being in government.
Brexit and woke was mentioned above. Brexit works for the Tories now in reverse as their Brexit deal is repeatedly punching people in the bollocks whilst the ideologues say "now we're free of the EU they have finally stopped punching you in the bollocks"
And woke? How can you have a culture war, claiming that the other is threatening your traditional British values whilst you corruptly hand vast contracts to your mates with no tender and go the UN to talk to the world about how Kermit the Frog mistreated Miss Piggy?
Yes its a byelection, yes people vote tactically and yes the kind of LibDem army have seen won't be repeated. But - look at all the seats which are similar to NS where the LDs are a lot closer than they were here in 2nd. Wouldn't need a 34% swing to remove various big name Tories...
I suspect that you are reading too much into this. I doubt that the vote had anything much to do with either Brexit or the broader, tedious landscape of culture wars.
The key factor is that the Prime Minister is useless and people, even in traditional Tory areas, are getting sick of him. That, and fatigue with the slog of this interminable pandemic.
Thats literally my point. For weeks the defence has been "this is a Brexit seat, they won't vote for remoaners." Yes they will - Brexit works in reverse now for many, especially in farming and fishing areas.
And its been "the LibDems are too woke for traditional Tories". As you point out, with a PM this useless how can they try and portray the other as the threat to their traditional British values?
Ed Davey on the radio 3 minutes ago saying it was nothing to do with Brexit...
And he's right - the "its a leaver seat they won't vote for remainers" defence no longer exists. People vote on the issues now, not on a referendum 5 and a half years ago.
For the next GE, certainly if the incumbent is still in charge, we should expect the govt to recreate the Brexit issue, so they are not voting about something in the past, but on current issues that are a proxy/continuation of Brexit.
What was needed in NS for a Tory hold wasn't Brexity Culture War stuff, it was simple competence and honesty.
Absolutely. It was the trio of corrupt MP, lying PM and vaxports that did for them. By then only HYUFD types backing them. I think if it was only one of the trio, easy Tory hold, two factors instead of three would have been close.
But in a GE more opportunity for the govt to frame the questions than there is in a by-election.
What wonderful news to wake up to. Happy political moments have been vanishingly rare for me in recent years.
I wonder if NS shows that there is more than one type of Brexit vote. This is a traditional, livestock dominated, rural marches seat. Classically conservative, but very different from Hartlepool or Mansfield. Brexit may have become much less salient in Shropshire (and Herefordshire, Somerset, Devon) but perhaps it and the culture wars still retain their power in places further North and East.
I grew up in the Marches and it was never a hotbed of anti immigrant sentiment or wartime nostalgia. But it was also deeply unimpressed by metropolitan types.
To use a French analogy, the sort of place that might happily vote for Pecresse but not Le Pen. As those presidential maps show across the livestock farming regions across the Massif Central.
Enjoyably dry assessment of the mood among Tory MPs from a former minister: "Part of me thinks it’s such a massive shock it will make people reassess and reunite. Then I remember the character of most of my colleagues." https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1471749808616521731
The new MP read history at Trinity College, Cambridge.
I read detective novels philosophy at Trinity College, Cambridge.
Does anyone know when Ms Morgan, née Halcrow was at Trinity?
She’s 46 so she’d have started in 1992 or 1993 depending on gap years etc
I'm 46 and started uni in 1994.
Depends on when in the year her birthday is; i.e. academic years. Someone born before the end of August would be expected, gap years ignored, to be at Uni the year before someone born after September 1st.
Though Cambridge isn’t too fussy - I was born in early September and still started there in the year of my 18th birthday (I’d skipped a year of primary school and carried that all the way through).
Doing that isn't easy in the State school system AIUI, which can result, of course, in the early years. in children born in August 'competing' in class with children born almost a year earlier. OK for the brightest, but can be a problem for those not so fortunate.
Indeed. I believe it’s practically impossible now - at Mrs Capitano’s school there are several kids who’d benefit both socially and academically from changing year (whether up or down), but a system geared towards SATs and league tables is never going to allow that.
I have a great-nephew, born in August, who would definitely be helped if he could. One of my granddaughters, in another country, whose birthday is late August was quietly forgotten about, school-wise to two or three days. Consequently she's fine.
Out little 'un was born in late June. He's having no trouble competing academically, but in sports and some activities he's at an apparent real disadvantage over those nearly a year older. It's not too bad at the moment - he's only seven - but I think it'll get worse before his teens as more competitive sports begin.
Fox jr2 is a May birthday but the only one of our family who has won a school sporting trophy.
Ahead of the game theatrically too, he re-choreagraphed the school play as a 10 year old.
I've sent in so many negative LF test results recently that my phone now auto-fills the tick boxes. Mrs RP still showing a faint positive but is bright and cheery this morning.
Good news and pleased for her. Does this mean that vaccines do work then? (Innocent face...)
Anyhoo I feel much more confident on my wager with a friend that Boris Johnson's tenure will be shorter than David Cameron.
I'm regretting I didn't go for a tenure shorter than Theresa May's.
I don't expect a VONC this week.
Hard to see how there isn't one in January now.
Any thoughts on what margin of victory he needs to survive (in the real world)? I would say if 110 vote against him he's going to have to throw in the towel.
To be honest, I'm expecting a VONC after the locals or if he tries to for another lockdown.
As I've stated a few times this week, if the VONC is called before you 100% know the VONC goes against Boris, the Tories are then stuck with Boris for a whole year.
No sane MP is going to rush a VONC having seen what happened in December 2018.
That's technically true but not necessarily in practice. Theresa May didn't last the year despite winning the VONC. It's like shooting a big beast in the head. It might be instantly fatal or it might cause the beast to stagger around thrashing for a while but ultimately it's fatal.
This is a wonderful website with many posters very knowledgeable about politics.
Yet despite that knowledge, all posters proved completely hopeless at predicting this by-election result.
And if they can't get anywhere near predicting a by-election result, we can say for certain they have no chance whatsoever of predicting what will happen with Covid - a subject they know far less about than politics.
Yet very soon they'll be back on here pontificating with great confidence about how Covid should be handled.
Many predicted a LD win, but mostly very narrowly.
Yes, I know.
I don't regard a prediction of a narrow LD win as having been an accurate prediction. It's miles away from what actually happened.
The LD majority was over 15%. An accurate prediction would have been a very easy LD win - say a majority of over 10%. I don't recall anyone on here predicting that.
Actually, I think somebody did, but I can’t remember who it was. But there was definitely a PB’er who said the LDs had it in the bag and would win by a decent margin. Step forward for your medal….
It wasn’t me but I did predict a 7% margin to the Lib Dem team.
I forecast that the Lib Dems would win comfortably but I wasn't brave enough to put any numbers on it. I also forecast that the effect on Boris's premiership would be negligible despite all the excitement. We shall see.
As Mike points out in the header, Labour haven’t gained a seat from the Tories at a by-election since Corby in 2012.
The public aren’t happy with the government, but they’re not convinced by Labour. Yet.
What would a terrible result have looked like?
Losing the seat to Labour.
Which was eminently possible as I kept saying. Labour won 17k votes here only a couple of years ago. Getting those 17k out to give the government a mid-term kicking, which is basically what the Lib Dems have done instead, would have seen Labour gain the seat. But they didn't bother, so instead its the Lib Dems winning here.
As Mike points out in the header, Labour haven’t gained a seat from the Tories at a by-election since Corby in 2012.
The public aren’t happy with the government, but they’re not convinced by Labour. Yet.
You think that the absolute collapse of the Tory vote in a seat they have held since 1906 is somehow good for the party?
Labour cannot win a majority without Scotland. So they need the LDs to take as many seats off the Tories as possible. That they could pull this off by such a large margin puts scores of seats into play.
The more LD seats, the fewer Tory votes that the Starmer government needs to beat.
Sir John Curtice writes in Times that Boris Johnson is losing support of Leave voters
‘This result suggests that the coalition of Leave-inclined voters who provided the prime minister with his 80-seat majority in 2019 is now at risk of falling apart’
There must be dancing in the streets....beautiful weather great culture and good food isn't everything. This could be the beginning of the end of Johnson and the UK's pariah status which I'm afraid I'm seeing here (very moderately) in the last few days.
Nearly 22 hours since I got my booster - Pfizer - and apart from a tiny bit of soreness where I was jabbed I feel fine. Long may it continue!
Meant to be having mine this evening - then straight out running Saturday morning. And Sunday morning as well. Fingers crossed...
Fingers crossed for you too. But don't overdo it.
I had my Pfizer yesterday morning. I've just come back from a seven-mile run, and am in bed feeling dizzy and a bit nauseous. And my harm hurts like *******.
But at least I've got today's run over with, and the little 'un's going to school so I can just sleep.
Good man.
I had both my AZ's without suffering any side effects at all, but I'm not taking anything for granted.
Certainly if I do end up feeling like death warmed over I'll be staying home for the weekend. Won't be any use for cross country if I'm vax zonked. I run with all the elegance and vitesse of a tortoise wading through treacle at the best of times.
Wow! As speedy as a tortoise wading through treacle! I'm at the sloth crossing a busy motorway stage. At least, that's how I feel at the moment. Rather flat ...
I'm actually a really slow runner, but I do seem able to maintain regular reasonable distances. And I am nearly fifty, so I can always blame age.
(Although it's rather embarrassing when I get overtaken by an evidently much older man...)
I’m also of the slow runner clan. For many reasons I just don’t seem able to run that fast, even at my fittest. Resting heart rate low fifties, but carrying too much weight. Best 5k time 26 minutes, best 10k 55 min. But a few years ago happy to churn out (slow) half marathons. I find you exploits inspiring. Do you never get injured?
Thanks for that.
Your times are about my best as well. My neighbour - over ten years younger than me - can do a 10k in 40 minutes. We never run together. I also never do official runs - I think if I did I'd get carried along, and might manage a sub 50-min 10K. That's my target.
As for injury: I got a minor niggle a couple of years ago, but this year I've had no real issues. I think only one blister as well. My guess is that I've been lucky, and the fact I used to be a long-distance walker means my feet and legs are used to regular exercise. I'm terrified of my ankle injury coming back, but so far - fingers crossed - it's been fine.
If anything, I have fewer injuries whilst going through one of my manic walking or running phases: if I don't do too much for a month, then I start getting back and other pains from lounging around ...
As Mike points out in the header, Labour haven’t gained a seat from the Tories at a by-election since Corby in 2012.
The public aren’t happy with the government, but they’re not convinced by Labour. Yet.
You think that the absolute collapse of the Tory vote in a seat they have held since 1906 is somehow good for the party?
Labour cannot win a majority without Scotland. So they need the LDs to take as many seats off the Tories as possible. That they could pull this off by such a large margin puts scores of seats into play.
The more LD seats, the fewer Tory votes that the Starmer government needs to beat.
Its a midterm by-election. Governments don't win midterm by-elections. I've been saying that for ages, which is why I had money on this result.
Doesn't change the next election result one iota.
17k votes wasn't enough for Labour to win the seat in 2017 and it won't be enough for the Lib Dems to hold it in 2024 either.
Anyhoo I feel much more confident on my wager with a friend that Boris Johnson's tenure will be shorter than David Cameron.
I'm regretting I didn't go for a tenure shorter than Theresa May's.
I don't expect a VONC this week.
Hard to see how there isn't one in January now.
Any thoughts on what margin of victory he needs to survive (in the real world)? I would say if 110 vote against him he's going to have to throw in the towel.
He needs a margin of one.
Remember that, according to the party rules, his successful passing of a vote of confidence precludes a challenge for a period 12 months.
Unlike Theresa May, the PM is unlikely to find his own MPs unwilling to pass flagship policies.
I think we do the vote of no confidence in the government first. On the floor of the Commons. Flush out the abstainers. Tories will win of course, but it will be fun seeing what their majority drops to.
Couldn’t see more than a handful of already-retiring abstainers. Anyone who’s intending to stand as a Conservative at the next election, will be in favour of Conservatives being in government.
Oh sure - but to stay in government and retain their seat they need a new PM. So agree in their WhatsApp groups which ones will abstain. The government wins the vote on a greatly reduced majority, a shot across the bows and a signal to others who may be considering their own next steps.
Comments
I've seen BJO make a spectacle of himself and Jack's back (which is great) But I still don't know who's won!
A grateful nation awaits...
There may be quite a lot of overlap, of course.
If you're a Lib Dem voting Aussie today is a great day.
I'm regretting I didn't go for a tenure shorter than Theresa May's.
Personally, I am glad I was wrong and I am equally glad to see that the voters of NS would not elect anyone just because they wore a blue rosette - or even a turnip or monkey so attired
Now the court of public opinion has spoken, #WillOfThePeople
Hard to see how there isn't one in January now.
Any thoughts on what margin of victory he needs to survive (in the real world)? I would say if 110 vote against him he's going to have to throw in the towel.
https://twitter.com/barnespa/status/1471738189262041088
Remember that, according to the party rules, his successful passing of a vote of confidence precludes a challenge for a period 12 months.
Unlike Theresa May, the PM is unlikely to find his own MPs unwilling to pass flagship policies.
Neil Shastri-Hunt kept on banging on that he was a doctor, the public didn't like that, he should have banged on that he was a lawyer, then he would have won a landslide.
With all due modesty I did predict a comfortable Tory win and I've never yet been right.
"BoZo is still a winner..."
Awesome.
Called it. Won a nice few quid here despite locking out most of my profit before going to bed last night.
https://yougov.co.uk/ratings/politics/popularity/politicians-political-figures/all
Tied with Ed Miliband.....
Dec 2019 Turnout 67.9%.
However Yolande Kenward (ND) 3 (0.01%), must be wondering what happened to the promised support of her nominees?
But somehow I doubt it.
Ed Balls but no Starmer or Davey?!?
Mark - Raise a glass of your favourite vodka. Much missed on PB.
BREXIT IS DONEFinally, some sense from the government on Northern Ireland. But it'll cause yet more trouble for Johnson, who foolishly raised the expectations of his most radicalised permanent Brexiters and must now explain this.
https://twitter.com/carlgardner/status/1471748164420050949
https://twitter.com/Sime0nStylites/status/1471744585525346304
The only Tory consolation that I can see is the low turnout, which as I said a couple of days ago is what you might expect from a December election in the midst of scandals. Some of them will come back at a GE.
No sane MP is going to rush a VONC having seen what happened in December 2018.
The official figure wasn't enough for Thatcher in 1990, or Major in 1995, or May in 2018.
Major survived by getting two votes more than he'd set as his private walk away figure. The others didn't. May tried and it wasn't a success.
As for his MPs not being willing to pass his policies, vaxports wave hello.
Have a good day.
Lib Dems 2021 17,957
I said for weeks here that Labours losing vote tally in 2017 would be a winning tally in a by election.
Cheddar cheese and pineapple on sticks all round.
Think this was close pre partygate, and not really after
Anthony Browne
Elliot Colburn
Mary Robinson
Alex Chalk
Caroline Ansell
Dominic Raab
Angela Richardson
Maria Caulfield
Stephen Hammond
And one of the things that kept JM as PM, even though he was doomed, was that there was no agreement on who would take over and do better.
Is BoJo the kind of man to plough on a lemming march over the cliff? Walking away is for losers, but I can't see a hedonist like Boris enduring three years of being unpopular.
Wimbledon +22.7
Cambridgeshire South +23.4
Guildford +15.3
Winchester +12
etc...
I find you exploits inspiring. Do you never get injured?
Britain has formally dropped its demand that Europe’s highest court should have no legal role in the controversial Northern Ireland protocol.
In a key concession to Brussels Lord Frost, the Brexit minister, will tell his EU counterpart today that Britain now accepts that the European Court of Justice (ECJ) must be allowed to interpret the protocol of the Brexit agreement.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/britain-accepts-eu-judges-role-in-northern-ireland-protocol-t6f9s85dv?shareToken=005ef78b0190abac48f4e8672db949fc
As Mike points out in the header, Labour haven’t gained a seat from the Tories at a by-election since Corby in 2012.
The public aren’t happy with the government, but they’re not convinced by Labour. Yet.
My wife’s company brunch ‘do’ binned this morning at three hours’ notice, after one of her colleagues tested positive overnight. Hopefully wifey and the rest of her company are all negative.
The last disciples however are the members of the Tory party so the future does not look bright for them. That is why Boris is no longer getting away with things that a year ago would have been dismissed as 'just Boris'
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1471745870504804360?s=20
Besides which, 5 years after Brexit was achieved would people have to be asked to wait another 5 years to finally achieve their goals? And which goals are those - Singapore-on-Thames or the Workers Collective?
But in a GE more opportunity for the govt to frame the questions than there is in a by-election.
I wonder if NS shows that there is more than one type of Brexit vote. This is a traditional, livestock dominated, rural marches seat. Classically conservative, but very different from Hartlepool or Mansfield. Brexit may have become much less salient in Shropshire (and Herefordshire, Somerset, Devon) but perhaps it and the culture wars still retain their power in places further North and East.
I grew up in the Marches and it was never a hotbed of anti immigrant sentiment or wartime nostalgia. But it was also deeply unimpressed by metropolitan types.
To use a French analogy, the sort of place that might happily vote for Pecresse but not Le Pen. As those presidential maps show across the livestock farming regions across the Massif Central.
https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1471749808616521731
Starmer will know why Labour's campaign lost momentum in North Shropshire.
https://twitter.com/zarahsultana/status/1471527557405290499
Ahead of the game theatrically too, he re-choreagraphed the school play as a 10 year old.
Does this mean that vaccines do work then? (Innocent face...)
Which was eminently possible as I kept saying. Labour won 17k votes here only a couple of years ago. Getting those 17k out to give the government a mid-term kicking, which is basically what the Lib Dems have done instead, would have seen Labour gain the seat. But they didn't bother, so instead its the Lib Dems winning here.
Labour cannot win a majority without Scotland. So they need the LDs to take as many seats off the Tories as possible. That they could pull this off by such a large margin puts scores of seats into play.
The more LD seats, the fewer Tory votes that the Starmer government needs to beat.
‘This result suggests that the coalition of Leave-inclined voters who provided the prime minister with his 80-seat majority in 2019 is now at risk of falling apart’
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/672788b0-5f09-11ec-aa95-09743a5edefd?shareToken=d5d82ddbe164e35af99a261d08683269
There must be dancing in the streets....beautiful weather great culture and good food isn't everything. This could be the beginning of the end of Johnson and the UK's pariah status which I'm afraid I'm seeing here (very moderately) in the last few days.
Your times are about my best as well. My neighbour - over ten years younger than me - can do a 10k in 40 minutes. We never run together.
As for injury: I got a minor niggle a couple of years ago, but this year I've had no real issues. I think only one blister as well. My guess is that I've been lucky, and the fact I used to be a long-distance walker means my feet and legs are used to regular exercise. I'm terrified of my ankle injury coming back, but so far - fingers crossed - it's been fine.
If anything, I have fewer injuries whilst going through one of my manic walking or running phases: if I don't do too much for a month, then I start getting back and other pains from lounging around ...
Doesn't change the next election result one iota.
17k votes wasn't enough for Labour to win the seat in 2017 and it won't be enough for the Lib Dems to hold it in 2024 either.
Expecting a flurry soon.