Don't forget folks, the infections number is the government measure that counts first infections only. And Omicron cares not whether you had a previous variant.
Isn’t that fake news? It has greater reinfections than Delta, but still in low single figures in percentage terms I think.
"Fake news". We know for a fact that the "catch rate" of infections is a percentage of the total. The official number is estimated by them to be c. 40% of the total number of actual infections. And its true that they don't count reinfections.
So even if the reinfection rate is only say 8% higher than Delta, we can do the maths easily. 60k cases today is 40%, so 150k total. And as that number rises the 8% example (if thats correct) propels the gap higher and the % caught in the official figure gets lower.
Either way the 200k that was rounds mocked by some on here the other day sounds like its realistic based on this.
I have to say in two years "exit the virus" is surely up there among the most stupid things said about it. That there's anyone who believes that is worrying and the government Comms needs to be updated to warn everyone that we're all going to get it and the best way to decrease likelihood of symptoms is to get vaccinated. There is no other game in town.
I agree! So why do you keep saying we had an exit wave?
Because we did? Immunity and vaccine coverage in the UK is the highest in the world. Despite all of the doom rhetoric from the scientists we're not in any lockdown while most of Europe has got severe restrictions on going anywhere. Omicron may change the game, it may not. But in the summer to now 11-13m people got the virus, 70-80% of them unvaccinated by choice. Would you rather they had zero immunity heading into the Omicron wave?
Don't take my word for it Chris Whitty said it in June. It was and remains the right strategy, everyone is going ti get COVID. Lockdowns and NPIs displace infections, but now the vaccine cavalry is already here, last winter it wasn't so displacement of 1000 infections was ~9.5 lives saved. Today displacement of infections will save close to zero lives, anyone who wants to be can get vaccinated. I walked into a pharmacy with my wife yesterday and we both got our boosters.
Again and again, the only game in town is vaccines. Lockdowns will do nothing because the moment we unlock the virus will be back. Infecting all those same idiots who refused the vaccine. Lockdown to save people who refused the vaccine is immoral, better to tell them to die at home.
The reality is that those who are calling for lockdowns are looking for a legislative safety blanket where none exists.
It has been my view throughout that it is not the role of the state to protect people from a virus. Measures to fundamentally restrict the liberties of e.g. children to 'protect' the very elderly and vulnerable are not IMO morally justified at the current CFR. Excessive safetyism is not a road I want the state to go down.
I am very proud to see so many Tory 'rebel' MPs standing up for liberty today. I would vote exactly the same way.
So I read, I am a foaming lockdown forever advocate. And yet I said days ago I would also vote against. We need measures to sustain businesses who get screwed by the shutdown being caused by Omicron running rampant. Not half-measures and excuses.
We need to see MPs back reviewing the latest data and proposals as they come out - instead Javid is proposing another enabling act where Peppa will rule by decree through the Christmas recess.
Unacceptable.
Or let those of us who want to continue as is, continue.
I'm in my early 30s. As are most of my mates. All of us just want to crack on.
Could you make it any more obvious you think you're invulnerable and you couldn't give a damn about anyone else?
@Chris, I'm in my late 20s so liable to piss you off even more than Mortimer.
The disease appears to be even less dangerous to us than it was before. We've got vaxxed even when it was probably not in our personal interest to do so.
Uni/college students and school pupils have missed out on the education that we all got. And people my age haven't travelled, met partners etc for nearly two years.
Do you give a damn about anyone else?
Not about people who are so self-obsessed that they're willing to put a higher priority on travel, "meeting partners" and respecting their anti-vaccine fantasies than on giving a toss whether other people die or not.
It's not that I think I'm particularly at risk myself. I don't have any particular risk factors and I've had a booster. It's just that people like you turn my stomach with your grotesque selfishness.
Ummm, other than @rural_voter, who has "anti-vaccine fantasies" on here?
The bloke I was replying to, in the post I was replying to, when he said "even when it was probably not in our personal interest to do so [get vaccinated, even though he was in his 20s]".
Recommendation: Don't spout crap, unless you can be bothered to read what you're spouting about (or unless this site is now an anti-vaccination propaganda outlet).
Bit weak, mate.
Bit weak? Quoting the anti-vaccine crap I was replying to?
Jesus wept!
Chris there you are. Please let us know what your plan is for the next 18 months would be very grateful. Also this 800k cases/day looks bolted on. Let me know how much free money you would like for our bet. I have a maximum obvs but it might do your self-esteem a ton of good to win something like this.
I have to say in two years "exit the virus" is surely up there among the most stupid things said about it. That there's anyone who believes that is worrying and the government Comms needs to be updated to warn everyone that we're all going to get it and the best way to decrease likelihood of symptoms is to get vaccinated. There is no other game in town.
I agree! So why do you keep saying we had an exit wave?
Because we did? Immunity and vaccine coverage in the UK is the highest in the world. Despite all of the doom rhetoric from the scientists we're not in any lockdown while most of Europe has got severe restrictions on going anywhere. Omicron may change the game, it may not. But in the summer to now 11-13m people got the virus, 70-80% of them unvaccinated by choice. Would you rather they had zero immunity heading into the Omicron wave?
Don't take my word for it Chris Whitty said it in June. It was and remains the right strategy, everyone is going ti get COVID. Lockdowns and NPIs displace infections, but now the vaccine cavalry is already here, last winter it wasn't so displacement of 1000 infections was ~9.5 lives saved. Today displacement of infections will save close to zero lives, anyone who wants to be can get vaccinated. I walked into a pharmacy with my wife yesterday and we both got our boosters.
Again and again, the only game in town is vaccines. Lockdowns will do nothing because the moment we unlock the virus will be back. Infecting all those same idiots who refused the vaccine. Lockdown to save people who refused the vaccine is immoral, better to tell them to die at home.
The reality is that those who are calling for lockdowns are looking for a legislative safety blanket where none exists.
It has been my view throughout that it is not the role of the state to protect people from a virus. Measures to fundamentally restrict the liberties of e.g. children to 'protect' the very elderly and vulnerable are not IMO morally justified at the current CFR. Excessive safetyism is not a road I want the state to go down.
I am very proud to see so many Tory 'rebel' MPs standing up for liberty today. I would vote exactly the same way.
So I read, I am a foaming lockdown forever advocate. And yet I said days ago I would also vote against. We need measures to sustain businesses who get screwed by the shutdown being caused by Omicron running rampant. Not half-measures and excuses.
We need to see MPs back reviewing the latest data and proposals as they come out - instead Javid is proposing another enabling act where Peppa will rule by decree through the Christmas recess.
Unacceptable.
Or let those of us who want to continue as is, continue.
I'm in my early 30s. As are most of my mates. All of us just want to crack on.
Could you make it any more obvious you think you're invulnerable and you couldn't give a damn about anyone else?
@Chris, I'm in my late 20s so liable to piss you off even more than Mortimer.
The disease appears to be even less dangerous to us than it was before. We've got vaxxed even when it was probably not in our personal interest to do so.
Uni/college students and school pupils have missed out on the education that we all got. And people my age haven't travelled, met partners etc for nearly two years.
Do you give a damn about anyone else?
Not about people who are so self-obsessed that they're willing to put a higher priority on travel, "meeting partners" and respecting their anti-vaccine fantasies than on giving a toss whether other people die or not.
It's not that I think I'm particularly at risk myself. I don't have any particular risk factors and I've had a booster. It's just that people like you turn my stomach with your grotesque selfishness.
Ummm, other than @rural_voter, who has "anti-vaccine fantasies" on here?
The bloke I was replying to, in the post I was replying to, when he said "even when it was probably not in our personal interest to do so [get vaccinated, even though he was in his 20s]".
Recommendation: Don't spout crap, unless you can be bothered to read what you're spouting about (or unless this site is now an anti-vaccination propaganda outlet).
Don't spout crap
Would you like to me to compare your forecasts for Covid cases in the UK with mine? And then we can talk about who has been talking crap.
Don't forget folks, the infections number is the government measure that counts first infections only. And Omicron cares not whether you had a previous variant.
Isn’t that fake news? It has greater reinfections than Delta, but still in low single figures in percentage terms I think.
"Fake news". We know for a fact that the "catch rate" of infections is a percentage of the total. The official number is estimated by them to be c. 40% of the total number of actual infections. And its true that they don't count reinfections.
So even if the reinfection rate is only say 8% higher than Delta, we can do the maths easily. 60k cases today is 40%, so 150k total. And as that number rises the 8% example (if thats correct) propels the gap higher and the % caught in the official figure gets lower.
Either way the 200k that was rounds mocked by some on here the other day sounds like its realistic based on this.
It's ~5%. You've literally made up that 40% figure from thin air.
Don't forget folks, the infections number is the government measure that counts first infections only. And Omicron cares not whether you had a previous variant.
Moron.
Really? - we laughed when Robert Peston made the comment a while back but I don't think the methodology has changed.
Oh and I would recommend posting something beyond a single word reply - it's not adding anything and will probably result in someone's account being suspended as the admins get fed up with it.
I like him calling me a moron as he flails about in a panicked rage. If thats an outlet to keep him sane as the shitey depressing reality kicks in I am happy to provide the service.
I was an elected councillor where the mayor / council chair posted on Facebook that I should go back to where I came from and never darken his town again with my forrin genes. I laughed at that, I'm hardly going to be wound up by "moron" comments. It only bites when you respect their opinion.
Regarding vaccine passports, can I suggest a compromise?
Firms are free to require vaccine passports, but are not obliged. We would probably find that 60-70% of restaurants would require them (pretty much any with elder clientele), but individual businesses would not be forced to require them.
Friday night in the city. Relais de Venise had a queue out of the door. The Counting House was rammo until later than usual.
Was in Balham on Sunday. Pub quiz as busy and rowdy as ever.
I went to Soho last night.
The waiting time for Zedels was 90 minutes.
On a Monday.
My main impression so far:
Many people are happy to revert to WFH in the run up to Xmas. But they're still boozing and enjoying themselves. And us youngsters want to crack on.
I'd be surprised if restos wanted added work of vaccine passports. They all seem understaffed at the moment as it is.
Who exactly is going to enforce these vaxports? I suppose you could make them a sale condition of buying a round, which is not quite the same thing.
Simple loophole there, each group only needs one person with a vaxport and just send them up with the money
Does anyone have a précis of the Omicron situation in the United States?
Given the high level of unvaccinated out there it's going to cause carnage isn't it?
Since the orange one left office, our media has stopped reporting on COVID in the US&A.
If anything some of the states are becoming more idiotically opposed to taking action agains the coronavirus since Trump left. Their leaders see to see it as taking a stand against Biden and the Democrats by allowing many more of those they represent to die in the name of "freedom".
I have to say in two years "exit the virus" is surely up there among the most stupid things said about it. That there's anyone who believes that is worrying and the government Comms needs to be updated to warn everyone that we're all going to get it and the best way to decrease likelihood of symptoms is to get vaccinated. There is no other game in town.
I agree! So why do you keep saying we had an exit wave?
Because we did? Immunity and vaccine coverage in the UK is the highest in the world. Despite all of the doom rhetoric from the scientists we're not in any lockdown while most of Europe has got severe restrictions on going anywhere. Omicron may change the game, it may not. But in the summer to now 11-13m people got the virus, 70-80% of them unvaccinated by choice. Would you rather they had zero immunity heading into the Omicron wave?
Don't take my word for it Chris Whitty said it in June. It was and remains the right strategy, everyone is going ti get COVID. Lockdowns and NPIs displace infections, but now the vaccine cavalry is already here, last winter it wasn't so displacement of 1000 infections was ~9.5 lives saved. Today displacement of infections will save close to zero lives, anyone who wants to be can get vaccinated. I walked into a pharmacy with my wife yesterday and we both got our boosters.
Again and again, the only game in town is vaccines. Lockdowns will do nothing because the moment we unlock the virus will be back. Infecting all those same idiots who refused the vaccine. Lockdown to save people who refused the vaccine is immoral, better to tell them to die at home.
The reality is that those who are calling for lockdowns are looking for a legislative safety blanket where none exists.
It has been my view throughout that it is not the role of the state to protect people from a virus. Measures to fundamentally restrict the liberties of e.g. children to 'protect' the very elderly and vulnerable are not IMO morally justified at the current CFR. Excessive safetyism is not a road I want the state to go down.
I am very proud to see so many Tory 'rebel' MPs standing up for liberty today. I would vote exactly the same way.
So I read, I am a foaming lockdown forever advocate. And yet I said days ago I would also vote against. We need measures to sustain businesses who get screwed by the shutdown being caused by Omicron running rampant. Not half-measures and excuses.
We need to see MPs back reviewing the latest data and proposals as they come out - instead Javid is proposing another enabling act where Peppa will rule by decree through the Christmas recess.
Unacceptable.
Or let those of us who want to continue as is, continue.
I'm in my early 30s. As are most of my mates. All of us just want to crack on.
Could you make it any more obvious you think you're invulnerable and you couldn't give a damn about anyone else?
@Chris, I'm in my late 20s so liable to piss you off even more than Mortimer.
The disease appears to be even less dangerous to us than it was before. We've got vaxxed even when it was probably not in our personal interest to do so.
Uni/college students and school pupils have missed out on the education that we all got. And people my age haven't travelled, met partners etc for nearly two years.
Do you give a damn about anyone else?
Not about people who are so self-obsessed that they're willing to put a higher priority on travel, "meeting partners" and respecting their anti-vaccine fantasies than on giving a toss whether other people die or not.
It's not that I think I'm particularly at risk myself. I don't have any particular risk factors and I've had a booster. It's just that people like you turn my stomach with your grotesque selfishness.
Ummm, other than @rural_voter, who has "anti-vaccine fantasies" on here?
The bloke I was replying to, in the post I was replying to, when he said "even when it was probably not in our personal interest to do so [get vaccinated, even though he was in his 20s]".
Recommendation: Don't spout crap, unless you can be bothered to read what you're spouting about (or unless this site is now an anti-vaccination propaganda outlet).
Don't spout crap
Would you like to me to compare your forecasts for Covid cases in the UK with mine? And then we can talk about who has been talking crap.
Honestly, Robert, there's a lot of crap being spouted today, I'm learning that all of the studies into reinfection are completely wrong and it's actually 40%, not 5%. But it's fine, @RochdalePioneers needs a way to deflect from the fact that he was wrong to oppose a full reopening and building a wall of natural immunity. Made up figures are all good if you have a point to make.
Don't forget folks, the infections number is the government measure that counts first infections only. And Omicron cares not whether you had a previous variant.
Moron.
Really - we laughed when Robert Peston made the comment a while back but I don't think the methodology has changed.
No the moronic bit is suggesting that Omicron completely evades immunity from prior infection. We know that not to be true. RP is a moron and he's making things up to support his pro-lockdown forever view. I know he says otherwise but every post he makes is filled with the same bullshit zero COVID rhetoric from last year.
Yes the notion that prior infection provides zero protection against Omicron has to be the most absurd hysterical nonsense of this entire pandemic.
And he's inventing it because he wants to prove prior infections were a bad idea, not a good thing.
Either no intellectual honesty, or a complete moron.
Does anyone have a précis of the Omicron situation in the United States?
Given the high level of unvaccinated out there it's going to cause carnage isn't it?
Since the orange one left office, our media has stopped reporting on COVID in the US&A.
That's probably because both cases and deaths fell to a fraction of their level in early January within a few months of him leaving office. They have picked up and are currently running at about half that peak level. Once omicron takes hold I am guessing we will see new peaks, but those affected will mostly be freedom loving Trumpster anti vaxers so they won't be complaining and I'm guessing nobody else will either.
And we lack a President who will create a story by saying or doing something moronic on a daily basis.
Is this the start of a campaign for President Burgon of the UK?
Don't forget folks, the infections number is the government measure that counts first infections only. And Omicron cares not whether you had a previous variant.
Moron.
Really - we laughed when Robert Peston made the comment a while back but I don't think the methodology has changed.
No the moronic bit is suggesting that Omicron completely evades immunity from prior infection. We know that not to be true. RP is a moron and he's making things up to support his pro-lockdown forever view. I know he says otherwise but every post he makes is filled with the same bullshit zero COVID rhetoric from last year.
Yes the notion that prior infection provides zero protection against Omicron has to be the most absurd hysterical nonsense of this entire pandemic.
And he's inventing it because he wants to prove prior infections were a bad idea, not a good thing.
Either no intellectual honesty, or a complete moron.
That's all he wants, for everyone who suggested building up natural immunity over the summer to be wrong. How can he now admit that it was a good idea?
Don't forget folks, the infections number is the government measure that counts first infections only. And Omicron cares not whether you had a previous variant.
Moron.
Really? - we laughed when Robert Peston made the comment a while back but I don't think the methodology has changed.
Oh and I would recommend posting something beyond a single word reply - it's not adding anything and will probably result in someone's account being suspended as the admins get fed up with it.
I like him calling me a moron as he flails about in a panicked rage. If thats an outlet to keep him sane as the shitey depressing reality kicks in I am happy to provide the service.
I was an elected councillor where the mayor / council chair posted on Facebook that I should go back to where I came from and never darken his town again with my forrin genes. I laughed at that, I'm hardly going to be wound up by "moron" comments. It only bites when you respect their opinion.
No panic, I just actually think you're a moron. I think you have so little understanding about what you're talking about but keep spouting the same bullshit zero COVID lies that it must mean you're a moron. I don't think you're being dishonest, you just simply lack the mental capacity to understand.
Don't forget folks, the infections number is the government measure that counts first infections only. And Omicron cares not whether you had a previous variant.
Isn’t that fake news? It has greater reinfections than Delta, but still in low single figures in percentage terms I think.
"Fake news". We know for a fact that the "catch rate" of infections is a percentage of the total. The official number is estimated by them to be c. 40% of the total number of actual infections. And its true that they don't count reinfections.
So even if the reinfection rate is only say 8% higher than Delta, we can do the maths easily. 60k cases today is 40%, so 150k total. And as that number rises the 8% example (if thats correct) propels the gap higher and the % caught in the official figure gets lower.
Either way the 200k that was rounds mocked by some on here the other day sounds like its realistic based on this.
It's ~5%. You've literally made up that 40% figure from thin air.
I'm sure I was quoting from Sajid Javid when he was talking about Omicron. It was the explanation about how they had 50k confirmed cased and believed the true figure to be 200k
Don't forget folks, the infections number is the government measure that counts first infections only. And Omicron cares not whether you had a previous variant.
Moron.
Really - we laughed when Robert Peston made the comment a while back but I don't think the methodology has changed.
No the moronic bit is suggesting that Omicron completely evades immunity from prior infection. We know that not to be true. RP is a moron and he's making things up to support his pro-lockdown forever view. I know he says otherwise but every post he makes is filled with the same bullshit zero COVID rhetoric from last year.
Yes the notion that prior infection provides zero protection against Omicron has to be the most absurd hysterical nonsense of this entire pandemic.
And he's inventing it because he wants to prove prior infections were a bad idea, not a good thing.
Either no intellectual honesty, or a complete moron.
And you can of course show where I said zero protection lol
Seriously, you need to decide which of you and Max are Hale and which is Pace. You're both hilarious this afternoon.
Don't forget folks, the infections number is the government measure that counts first infections only. And Omicron cares not whether you had a previous variant.
Moron.
Really - we laughed when Robert Peston made the comment a while back but I don't think the methodology has changed.
No the moronic bit is suggesting that Omicron completely evades immunity from prior infection. We know that not to be true. RP is a moron and he's making things up to support his pro-lockdown forever view. I know he says otherwise but every post he makes is filled with the same bullshit zero COVID rhetoric from last year.
Yes the notion that prior infection provides zero protection against Omicron has to be the most absurd hysterical nonsense of this entire pandemic.
And he's inventing it because he wants to prove prior infections were a bad idea, not a good thing.
Either no intellectual honesty, or a complete moron.
And you can of course show where I said zero protection lol
Seriously, you need to decide which of you and Max are Hale and which is Pace. You're both hilarious this afternoon.
"And Omicron cares not whether you had a previous variant"
I have to say in two years "exit the virus" is surely up there among the most stupid things said about it. That there's anyone who believes that is worrying and the government Comms needs to be updated to warn everyone that we're all going to get it and the best way to decrease likelihood of symptoms is to get vaccinated. There is no other game in town.
I agree! So why do you keep saying we had an exit wave?
Because we did? Immunity and vaccine coverage in the UK is the highest in the world. Despite all of the doom rhetoric from the scientists we're not in any lockdown while most of Europe has got severe restrictions on going anywhere. Omicron may change the game, it may not. But in the summer to now 11-13m people got the virus, 70-80% of them unvaccinated by choice. Would you rather they had zero immunity heading into the Omicron wave?
Don't take my word for it Chris Whitty said it in June. It was and remains the right strategy, everyone is going ti get COVID. Lockdowns and NPIs displace infections, but now the vaccine cavalry is already here, last winter it wasn't so displacement of 1000 infections was ~9.5 lives saved. Today displacement of infections will save close to zero lives, anyone who wants to be can get vaccinated. I walked into a pharmacy with my wife yesterday and we both got our boosters.
Again and again, the only game in town is vaccines. Lockdowns will do nothing because the moment we unlock the virus will be back. Infecting all those same idiots who refused the vaccine. Lockdown to save people who refused the vaccine is immoral, better to tell them to die at home.
The reality is that those who are calling for lockdowns are looking for a legislative safety blanket where none exists.
It has been my view throughout that it is not the role of the state to protect people from a virus. Measures to fundamentally restrict the liberties of e.g. children to 'protect' the very elderly and vulnerable are not IMO morally justified at the current CFR. Excessive safetyism is not a road I want the state to go down.
I am very proud to see so many Tory 'rebel' MPs standing up for liberty today. I would vote exactly the same way.
So I read, I am a foaming lockdown forever advocate. And yet I said days ago I would also vote against. We need measures to sustain businesses who get screwed by the shutdown being caused by Omicron running rampant. Not half-measures and excuses.
We need to see MPs back reviewing the latest data and proposals as they come out - instead Javid is proposing another enabling act where Peppa will rule by decree through the Christmas recess.
Unacceptable.
Or let those of us who want to continue as is, continue.
I'm in my early 30s. As are most of my mates. All of us just want to crack on.
Could you make it any more obvious you think you're invulnerable and you couldn't give a damn about anyone else?
@Chris, I'm in my late 20s so liable to piss you off even more than Mortimer.
The disease appears to be even less dangerous to us than it was before. We've got vaxxed even when it was probably not in our personal interest to do so.
Uni/college students and school pupils have missed out on the education that we all got. And people my age haven't travelled, met partners etc for nearly two years.
Do you give a damn about anyone else?
Not about people who are so self-obsessed that they're willing to put a higher priority on travel, "meeting partners" and respecting their anti-vaccine fantasies than on giving a toss whether other people die or not.
It's not that I think I'm particularly at risk myself. I don't have any particular risk factors and I've had a booster. It's just that people like you turn my stomach with your grotesque selfishness.
Ummm, other than @rural_voter, who has "anti-vaccine fantasies" on here?
The bloke I was replying to, in the post I was replying to, when he said "even when it was probably not in our personal interest to do so [get vaccinated, even though he was in his 20s]".
Recommendation: Don't spout crap, unless you can be bothered to read what you're spouting about (or unless this site is now an anti-vaccination propaganda outlet).
Bit weak, mate.
Bit weak? Quoting the anti-vaccine crap I was replying to?
Jesus wept!
Honey, it is neither anti-vaccine crap nor anti-vaccine fantasies to suggest that from a selfish perspective it is probably not in the personal interest of someone in their 20s to get vaccinated. It is probably very slightly false; it is not inconceivable that it is true.
"The country will face an “exit wave” of coronavirus infections whenever restrictions are lifted, England’s chief medical officer has said."
DEMONSTRABLY AN ABUSE OF THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
If we had seen cases rise and fall then fine. But we didn't. Cases rose. And with some variations at the top stayed largely the same. We didn't see the dropping away as we exit that wave. Its just stayed high permanently.
We did see them fall.
Because in the first phase schools were closed, in the second the schools were reopened.
Unless you have come to some perverted belief that schools don't affect transmission? Is that your claim now?
Lol
Covid cases 17th May 2,220 (7 day average). Then after we made changes a big spike and the pogoing highs and lows around the new baseline.
When you say "we did see them fall" it was to 25,722, a mere 11.5x higher than the start. And then up and up and up.
You are being so insane now, May was during restrictions, why the hell would it have to fall beneath the figure that is only achievable with restrictions? What an absurd suggestion (!)
Are you so naive and so unwilling to be realistic now that you can't tell the difference between transmission with schools closed and transmission with schools open now?
16 July 47,970.4 13 September 28,540.4
So the 7 day average halved until the schools went back, that's one wave.
You seem to be in utter denial. First you want us to exit the virus, then you want cases to fall below what they were when we were in lockdown. You just clearly haven't grasped the severity of reality have you?
You're getting irate at others because you're in complete denial.
More belly laughs at my end - this is great! Had it dropped to 28k and kept falling then that would have been great! Instead that was the new floor and then we saw an ever-increasing level of new floors. 28k. 33k, now 51k.
You said "We did see them fall. Because in the first phase schools were closed, in the second the schools were reopened." Yes. And then they went up again. And up some more. And some more.
We replaced the 2k cases a day with mask restrictions with a very best 28k a day and then up and up. If an ever-increasing number of cases is us exiting having cases then black truly is white.
Do keep it up, you're as funny as HYUFD foaming on about Toryism.
Why would it keep falling? Schools reopened! Then it became winter.
You are utterly delusional. Had we not had the exit wave we would have seen exponential growth with schools open, no restrictions and winter. To keep levels flat, while circumstances are getting worse, is proof that the wave has happened.
I'm not an expert on waves, but I don't think they're supposed to peak, and then just keep going at the level of the peak indefinitely.
One reason waves in the water form the pattern they do is the ground level is rising which causes the water to rise too.
In the UK since lifting lockdown the ground level for Covid's spread has been rising: Schools reopened, summer ended, winter began. And yet despite the ground level rising, the cases have been flat. Why?
The only reason the cases have been flat despite the higher ground level, is that the prior wave had just happened.
Imagine if it was the other way around, starting in winter with schools open, then going into spring, then summer, then the schools closed over summer holidays - if cases were flat over that, then you'd be confused why.
To have cases flat, while the ground level to boost Covid is getting higher, is proof that the wave had happened, not proof it didn't.
It's proof that the wave isn't over yet, which is proof that the (presumed) prior belief that it would crest and then break was wrong. In short, it is now conclusively proven to be Not a Wave.
Look at it another way: six months ago, was anyone predicting an "exit wave" that got stuck around 50k cases reported per day for months on end, if restrictions lifted?
Waves is funny things. One never knows, the dynamics muight have generatyed a soliton which moves forward as quickly as we do in time: see this ship in a canal 2:30 ON.
I think I understood this. Waves travel through time, meaning that a wave can happen before the event that caused it. I think I could squeeze a paper out of this and it'll make a big splash.
What are they trying to achieve here? I get the it's fun to see the wave sploosh up into a vertical jet at the end, but are they trying to model something? Coastal erosion?
I have to say in two years "exit the virus" is surely up there among the most stupid things said about it. That there's anyone who believes that is worrying and the government Comms needs to be updated to warn everyone that we're all going to get it and the best way to decrease likelihood of symptoms is to get vaccinated. There is no other game in town.
I agree! So why do you keep saying we had an exit wave?
Because we did? Immunity and vaccine coverage in the UK is the highest in the world. Despite all of the doom rhetoric from the scientists we're not in any lockdown while most of Europe has got severe restrictions on going anywhere. Omicron may change the game, it may not. But in the summer to now 11-13m people got the virus, 70-80% of them unvaccinated by choice. Would you rather they had zero immunity heading into the Omicron wave?
Don't take my word for it Chris Whitty said it in June. It was and remains the right strategy, everyone is going ti get COVID. Lockdowns and NPIs displace infections, but now the vaccine cavalry is already here, last winter it wasn't so displacement of 1000 infections was ~9.5 lives saved. Today displacement of infections will save close to zero lives, anyone who wants to be can get vaccinated. I walked into a pharmacy with my wife yesterday and we both got our boosters.
Again and again, the only game in town is vaccines. Lockdowns will do nothing because the moment we unlock the virus will be back. Infecting all those same idiots who refused the vaccine. Lockdown to save people who refused the vaccine is immoral, better to tell them to die at home.
The reality is that those who are calling for lockdowns are looking for a legislative safety blanket where none exists.
It has been my view throughout that it is not the role of the state to protect people from a virus. Measures to fundamentally restrict the liberties of e.g. children to 'protect' the very elderly and vulnerable are not IMO morally justified at the current CFR. Excessive safetyism is not a road I want the state to go down.
I am very proud to see so many Tory 'rebel' MPs standing up for liberty today. I would vote exactly the same way.
So I read, I am a foaming lockdown forever advocate. And yet I said days ago I would also vote against. We need measures to sustain businesses who get screwed by the shutdown being caused by Omicron running rampant. Not half-measures and excuses.
We need to see MPs back reviewing the latest data and proposals as they come out - instead Javid is proposing another enabling act where Peppa will rule by decree through the Christmas recess.
Unacceptable.
Or let those of us who want to continue as is, continue.
I'm in my early 30s. As are most of my mates. All of us just want to crack on.
Could you make it any more obvious you think you're invulnerable and you couldn't give a damn about anyone else?
@Chris, I'm in my late 20s so liable to piss you off even more than Mortimer.
The disease appears to be even less dangerous to us than it was before. We've got vaxxed even when it was probably not in our personal interest to do so.
Uni/college students and school pupils have missed out on the education that we all got. And people my age haven't travelled, met partners etc for nearly two years.
Do you give a damn about anyone else?
Not about people who are so self-obsessed that they're willing to put a higher priority on travel, "meeting partners" and respecting their anti-vaccine fantasies than on giving a toss whether other people die or not.
It's not that I think I'm particularly at risk myself. I don't have any particular risk factors and I've had a booster. It's just that people like you turn my stomach with your grotesque selfishness.
Ummm, other than @rural_voter, who has "anti-vaccine fantasies" on here?
The bloke I was replying to, in the post I was replying to, when he said "even when it was probably not in our personal interest to do so [get vaccinated, even though he was in his 20s]".
Recommendation: Don't spout crap, unless you can be bothered to read what you're spouting about (or unless this site is now an anti-vaccination propaganda outlet).
Don't spout crap
Would you like to me to compare your forecasts for Covid cases in the UK with mine? And then we can talk about who has been talking crap.
What? You don't think someone saying it wasn't in their interest to get vaccinated because they were in their 20s is anti-vaccine drivel? Astonishing.
As for forecasts, I've made none. I've occasionally pointed out what would obviously happen under certain assumptions, which anyone numerate had the ability to check.
If you fancy yourself Nostradamus, that particular delusion is not my problem.
Sophia Sleigh @SophiaSleigh · 2h Wes Streeting giving it some substance and style. Labour's got an impressive Commons' performer on the front bench there, imho. Quite the extraordinary opener to his speech - pointing out to Tory MPs that govt ministers are "not Nazis".
I have to say in two years "exit the virus" is surely up there among the most stupid things said about it. That there's anyone who believes that is worrying and the government Comms needs to be updated to warn everyone that we're all going to get it and the best way to decrease likelihood of symptoms is to get vaccinated. There is no other game in town.
I agree! So why do you keep saying we had an exit wave?
Because we did? Immunity and vaccine coverage in the UK is the highest in the world. Despite all of the doom rhetoric from the scientists we're not in any lockdown while most of Europe has got severe restrictions on going anywhere. Omicron may change the game, it may not. But in the summer to now 11-13m people got the virus, 70-80% of them unvaccinated by choice. Would you rather they had zero immunity heading into the Omicron wave?
Don't take my word for it Chris Whitty said it in June. It was and remains the right strategy, everyone is going ti get COVID. Lockdowns and NPIs displace infections, but now the vaccine cavalry is already here, last winter it wasn't so displacement of 1000 infections was ~9.5 lives saved. Today displacement of infections will save close to zero lives, anyone who wants to be can get vaccinated. I walked into a pharmacy with my wife yesterday and we both got our boosters.
Again and again, the only game in town is vaccines. Lockdowns will do nothing because the moment we unlock the virus will be back. Infecting all those same idiots who refused the vaccine. Lockdown to save people who refused the vaccine is immoral, better to tell them to die at home.
The reality is that those who are calling for lockdowns are looking for a legislative safety blanket where none exists.
It has been my view throughout that it is not the role of the state to protect people from a virus. Measures to fundamentally restrict the liberties of e.g. children to 'protect' the very elderly and vulnerable are not IMO morally justified at the current CFR. Excessive safetyism is not a road I want the state to go down.
I am very proud to see so many Tory 'rebel' MPs standing up for liberty today. I would vote exactly the same way.
So I read, I am a foaming lockdown forever advocate. And yet I said days ago I would also vote against. We need measures to sustain businesses who get screwed by the shutdown being caused by Omicron running rampant. Not half-measures and excuses.
We need to see MPs back reviewing the latest data and proposals as they come out - instead Javid is proposing another enabling act where Peppa will rule by decree through the Christmas recess.
Unacceptable.
Or let those of us who want to continue as is, continue.
I'm in my early 30s. As are most of my mates. All of us just want to crack on.
Could you make it any more obvious you think you're invulnerable and you couldn't give a damn about anyone else?
@Chris, I'm in my late 20s so liable to piss you off even more than Mortimer.
The disease appears to be even less dangerous to us than it was before. We've got vaxxed even when it was probably not in our personal interest to do so.
Uni/college students and school pupils have missed out on the education that we all got. And people my age haven't travelled, met partners etc for nearly two years.
Do you give a damn about anyone else?
Not about people who are so self-obsessed that they're willing to put a higher priority on travel, "meeting partners" and respecting their anti-vaccine fantasies than on giving a toss whether other people die or not.
It's not that I think I'm particularly at risk myself. I don't have any particular risk factors and I've had a booster. It's just that people like you turn my stomach with your grotesque selfishness.
Ummm, other than @rural_voter, who has "anti-vaccine fantasies" on here?
The bloke I was replying to, in the post I was replying to, when he said "even when it was probably not in our personal interest to do so [get vaccinated, even though he was in his 20s]".
Recommendation: Don't spout crap, unless you can be bothered to read what you're spouting about (or unless this site is now an anti-vaccination propaganda outlet).
Bit weak, mate.
Bit weak? Quoting the anti-vaccine crap I was replying to?
Jesus wept!
The JCVI ruled that it wasn't in the interests of most 12-17 year olds to get the vaccine, because the (tiny) risk to them from the vaccine slightly outweighted the (even tinier) risk to them from getting the virus. They were told to have another go, and this time think about the impact to their education of missing months of school because they, their friends or their teachers had tested positive. However, the principle that vaccines were not in their personal interests stands, and the risk to people in their 20s is not that much higher. So, even if it's not actually true, the notion that those in their 20s had reasons not to take the vaccines is not so completely outlandish that you can dismiss it as "anti-vaccine crap" without sounding like a moron.
Don't forget folks, the infections number is the government measure that counts first infections only. And Omicron cares not whether you had a previous variant.
Moron.
Really? - we laughed when Robert Peston made the comment a while back but I don't think the methodology has changed.
Oh and I would recommend posting something beyond a single word reply - it's not adding anything and will probably result in someone's account being suspended as the admins get fed up with it.
I like him calling me a moron as he flails about in a panicked rage. If thats an outlet to keep him sane as the shitey depressing reality kicks in I am happy to provide the service.
I was an elected councillor where the mayor / council chair posted on Facebook that I should go back to where I came from and never darken his town again with my forrin genes. I laughed at that, I'm hardly going to be wound up by "moron" comments. It only bites when you respect their opinion.
No panic, I just actually think you're a moron. I think you have so little understanding about what you're talking about but keep spouting the same bullshit zero COVID lies that it must mean you're a moron. I don't think you're being dishonest, you just simply lack the mental capacity to understand.
And yet at no point have I said anything about zero Covid. Its like when @Anabobazina foams on about how I want lockdown forever, completely looking past the repeated posts I have made this afternoon about how I would vote against these restrictions which are incoherent and futile.
Honestly I couldn't care less if you think I am a moron or a genuis - it doesn't interest me either way. But you don't like having your own stuff quoted back at you and keep creating a strawman army with Philip and thats all fine. If it calms you down then good for you.
Don't forget folks, the infections number is the government measure that counts first infections only. And Omicron cares not whether you had a previous variant.
Moron.
Really? - we laughed when Robert Peston made the comment a while back but I don't think the methodology has changed.
Oh and I would recommend posting something beyond a single word reply - it's not adding anything and will probably result in someone's account being suspended as the admins get fed up with it.
I like him calling me a moron as he flails about in a panicked rage. If thats an outlet to keep him sane as the shitey depressing reality kicks in I am happy to provide the service.
I was an elected councillor where the mayor / council chair posted on Facebook that I should go back to where I came from and never darken his town again with my forrin genes. I laughed at that, I'm hardly going to be wound up by "moron" comments. It only bites when you respect their opinion.
No panic, I just actually think you're a moron. I think you have so little understanding about what you're talking about but keep spouting the same bullshit zero COVID lies that it must mean you're a moron. I don't think you're being dishonest, you just simply lack the mental capacity to understand.
And yet at no point have I said anything about zero Covid. Its like when @Anabobazina foams on about how I want lockdown forever, completely looking past the repeated posts I have made this afternoon about how I would vote against these restrictions which are incoherent and futile.
Honestly I couldn't care less if you think I am a moron or a genuis - it doesn't interest me either way. But you don't like having your own stuff quoted back at you and keep creating a strawman army with Philip and thats all fine. If it calms you down then good for you.
And yet here you were today proposing an "exit from the virus" what is that if not zero COVID?
"The country will face an “exit wave” of coronavirus infections whenever restrictions are lifted, England’s chief medical officer has said."
DEMONSTRABLY AN ABUSE OF THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
If we had seen cases rise and fall then fine. But we didn't. Cases rose. And with some variations at the top stayed largely the same. We didn't see the dropping away as we exit that wave. Its just stayed high permanently.
We did see them fall.
Because in the first phase schools were closed, in the second the schools were reopened.
Unless you have come to some perverted belief that schools don't affect transmission? Is that your claim now?
Lol
Covid cases 17th May 2,220 (7 day average). Then after we made changes a big spike and the pogoing highs and lows around the new baseline.
When you say "we did see them fall" it was to 25,722, a mere 11.5x higher than the start. And then up and up and up.
You are being so insane now, May was during restrictions, why the hell would it have to fall beneath the figure that is only achievable with restrictions? What an absurd suggestion (!)
Are you so naive and so unwilling to be realistic now that you can't tell the difference between transmission with schools closed and transmission with schools open now?
16 July 47,970.4 13 September 28,540.4
So the 7 day average halved until the schools went back, that's one wave.
You seem to be in utter denial. First you want us to exit the virus, then you want cases to fall below what they were when we were in lockdown. You just clearly haven't grasped the severity of reality have you?
You're getting irate at others because you're in complete denial.
More belly laughs at my end - this is great! Had it dropped to 28k and kept falling then that would have been great! Instead that was the new floor and then we saw an ever-increasing level of new floors. 28k. 33k, now 51k.
You said "We did see them fall. Because in the first phase schools were closed, in the second the schools were reopened." Yes. And then they went up again. And up some more. And some more.
We replaced the 2k cases a day with mask restrictions with a very best 28k a day and then up and up. If an ever-increasing number of cases is us exiting having cases then black truly is white.
Do keep it up, you're as funny as HYUFD foaming on about Toryism.
Why would it keep falling? Schools reopened! Then it became winter.
You are utterly delusional. Had we not had the exit wave we would have seen exponential growth with schools open, no restrictions and winter. To keep levels flat, while circumstances are getting worse, is proof that the wave has happened.
I'm not an expert on waves, but I don't think they're supposed to peak, and then just keep going at the level of the peak indefinitely.
One reason waves in the water form the pattern they do is the ground level is rising which causes the water to rise too.
In the UK since lifting lockdown the ground level for Covid's spread has been rising: Schools reopened, summer ended, winter began. And yet despite the ground level rising, the cases have been flat. Why?
The only reason the cases have been flat despite the higher ground level, is that the prior wave had just happened.
Imagine if it was the other way around, starting in winter with schools open, then going into spring, then summer, then the schools closed over summer holidays - if cases were flat over that, then you'd be confused why.
To have cases flat, while the ground level to boost Covid is getting higher, is proof that the wave had happened, not proof it didn't.
It's proof that the wave isn't over yet, which is proof that the (presumed) prior belief that it would crest and then break was wrong. In short, it is now conclusively proven to be Not a Wave.
Look at it another way: six months ago, was anyone predicting an "exit wave" that got stuck around 50k cases reported per day for months on end, if restrictions lifted?
Waves is funny things. One never knows, the dynamics muight have generatyed a soliton which moves forward as quickly as we do in time: see this ship in a canal 2:30 ON.
I think I understood this. Waves travel through time, meaning that a wave can happen before the event that caused it. I think I could squeeze a paper out of this and it'll make a big splash.
What are they trying to achieve here? I get the it's fun to see the wave sploosh up into a vertical jet at the end, but are they trying to model something? Coastal erosion?
Haven't a clue - one never knows with students. It might be the soliton itself that is the primary interest and the bit at the end of the canal is just to stop it sloshing all over the tarmac. But it could be of relevance to erosion in dead end canals and docks. Experimenting with different shapes - having one wave at a time simplifies analysis I suppose.
I have to say in two years "exit the virus" is surely up there among the most stupid things said about it. That there's anyone who believes that is worrying and the government Comms needs to be updated to warn everyone that we're all going to get it and the best way to decrease likelihood of symptoms is to get vaccinated. There is no other game in town.
I agree! So why do you keep saying we had an exit wave?
Because we did? Immunity and vaccine coverage in the UK is the highest in the world. Despite all of the doom rhetoric from the scientists we're not in any lockdown while most of Europe has got severe restrictions on going anywhere. Omicron may change the game, it may not. But in the summer to now 11-13m people got the virus, 70-80% of them unvaccinated by choice. Would you rather they had zero immunity heading into the Omicron wave?
Don't take my word for it Chris Whitty said it in June. It was and remains the right strategy, everyone is going ti get COVID. Lockdowns and NPIs displace infections, but now the vaccine cavalry is already here, last winter it wasn't so displacement of 1000 infections was ~9.5 lives saved. Today displacement of infections will save close to zero lives, anyone who wants to be can get vaccinated. I walked into a pharmacy with my wife yesterday and we both got our boosters.
Again and again, the only game in town is vaccines. Lockdowns will do nothing because the moment we unlock the virus will be back. Infecting all those same idiots who refused the vaccine. Lockdown to save people who refused the vaccine is immoral, better to tell them to die at home.
The reality is that those who are calling for lockdowns are looking for a legislative safety blanket where none exists.
It has been my view throughout that it is not the role of the state to protect people from a virus. Measures to fundamentally restrict the liberties of e.g. children to 'protect' the very elderly and vulnerable are not IMO morally justified at the current CFR. Excessive safetyism is not a road I want the state to go down.
I am very proud to see so many Tory 'rebel' MPs standing up for liberty today. I would vote exactly the same way.
So I read, I am a foaming lockdown forever advocate. And yet I said days ago I would also vote against. We need measures to sustain businesses who get screwed by the shutdown being caused by Omicron running rampant. Not half-measures and excuses.
We need to see MPs back reviewing the latest data and proposals as they come out - instead Javid is proposing another enabling act where Peppa will rule by decree through the Christmas recess.
Unacceptable.
Or let those of us who want to continue as is, continue.
I'm in my early 30s. As are most of my mates. All of us just want to crack on.
Could you make it any more obvious you think you're invulnerable and you couldn't give a damn about anyone else?
@Chris, I'm in my late 20s so liable to piss you off even more than Mortimer.
The disease appears to be even less dangerous to us than it was before. We've got vaxxed even when it was probably not in our personal interest to do so.
Uni/college students and school pupils have missed out on the education that we all got. And people my age haven't travelled, met partners etc for nearly two years.
Do you give a damn about anyone else?
Not about people who are so self-obsessed that they're willing to put a higher priority on travel, "meeting partners" and respecting their anti-vaccine fantasies than on giving a toss whether other people die or not.
It's not that I think I'm particularly at risk myself. I don't have any particular risk factors and I've had a booster. It's just that people like you turn my stomach with your grotesque selfishness.
Ummm, other than @rural_voter, who has "anti-vaccine fantasies" on here?
The bloke I was replying to, in the post I was replying to, when he said "even when it was probably not in our personal interest to do so [get vaccinated, even though he was in his 20s]".
Recommendation: Don't spout crap, unless you can be bothered to read what you're spouting about (or unless this site is now an anti-vaccination propaganda outlet).
Don't spout crap
Would you like to me to compare your forecasts for Covid cases in the UK with mine? And then we can talk about who has been talking crap.
What? You don't think someone saying it wasn't in their interest to get vaccinated because they were in their 20s is anti-vaccine drivel? Astonishing.
As for forecasts, I've made none. I've occasionally pointed out what would obviously happen under certain assumptions, which anyone numerate had the ability to check.
If you fancy yourself Nostradamus, that particular delusion is not my problem.
Um, what @Endillion said, admittedly after this but the info was available to you all the time. Are the JCVI anti vaccine fantasists? How embarrassing is it, 1-10, being you?
Sophia Sleigh @SophiaSleigh · 2h Wes Streeting giving it some substance and style. Labour's got an impressive Commons' performer on the front bench there, imho. Quite the extraordinary opener to his speech - pointing out to Tory MPs that govt ministers are "not Nazis".
It's depressing that MPs were making Nazi comparisons, and well done to him for calling it out. Silly language from the frothers. No MP in the current parliament is a Nazi.
Does anyone have a précis of the Omicron situation in the United States?
Given the high level of unvaccinated out there it's going to cause carnage isn't it?
Since the orange one left office, our media has stopped reporting on COVID in the US&A.
If anything some of the states are becoming more idiotically opposed to taking action agains the coronavirus since Trump left. Their leaders see to see it as taking a stand against Biden and the Democrats by allowing many more of those they represent to die in the name of "freedom".
I have to say in two years "exit the virus" is surely up there among the most stupid things said about it. That there's anyone who believes that is worrying and the government Comms needs to be updated to warn everyone that we're all going to get it and the best way to decrease likelihood of symptoms is to get vaccinated. There is no other game in town.
I agree! So why do you keep saying we had an exit wave?
Because we did? Immunity and vaccine coverage in the UK is the highest in the world. Despite all of the doom rhetoric from the scientists we're not in any lockdown while most of Europe has got severe restrictions on going anywhere. Omicron may change the game, it may not. But in the summer to now 11-13m people got the virus, 70-80% of them unvaccinated by choice. Would you rather they had zero immunity heading into the Omicron wave?
Don't take my word for it Chris Whitty said it in June. It was and remains the right strategy, everyone is going ti get COVID. Lockdowns and NPIs displace infections, but now the vaccine cavalry is already here, last winter it wasn't so displacement of 1000 infections was ~9.5 lives saved. Today displacement of infections will save close to zero lives, anyone who wants to be can get vaccinated. I walked into a pharmacy with my wife yesterday and we both got our boosters.
Again and again, the only game in town is vaccines. Lockdowns will do nothing because the moment we unlock the virus will be back. Infecting all those same idiots who refused the vaccine. Lockdown to save people who refused the vaccine is immoral, better to tell them to die at home.
The reality is that those who are calling for lockdowns are looking for a legislative safety blanket where none exists.
It has been my view throughout that it is not the role of the state to protect people from a virus. Measures to fundamentally restrict the liberties of e.g. children to 'protect' the very elderly and vulnerable are not IMO morally justified at the current CFR. Excessive safetyism is not a road I want the state to go down.
I am very proud to see so many Tory 'rebel' MPs standing up for liberty today. I would vote exactly the same way.
So I read, I am a foaming lockdown forever advocate. And yet I said days ago I would also vote against. We need measures to sustain businesses who get screwed by the shutdown being caused by Omicron running rampant. Not half-measures and excuses.
We need to see MPs back reviewing the latest data and proposals as they come out - instead Javid is proposing another enabling act where Peppa will rule by decree through the Christmas recess.
Unacceptable.
Or let those of us who want to continue as is, continue.
I'm in my early 30s. As are most of my mates. All of us just want to crack on.
Could you make it any more obvious you think you're invulnerable and you couldn't give a damn about anyone else?
@Chris, I'm in my late 20s so liable to piss you off even more than Mortimer.
The disease appears to be even less dangerous to us than it was before. We've got vaxxed even when it was probably not in our personal interest to do so.
Uni/college students and school pupils have missed out on the education that we all got. And people my age haven't travelled, met partners etc for nearly two years.
Do you give a damn about anyone else?
Not about people who are so self-obsessed that they're willing to put a higher priority on travel, "meeting partners" and respecting their anti-vaccine fantasies than on giving a toss whether other people die or not.
It's not that I think I'm particularly at risk myself. I don't have any particular risk factors and I've had a booster. It's just that people like you turn my stomach with your grotesque selfishness.
Ummm, other than @rural_voter, who has "anti-vaccine fantasies" on here?
The bloke I was replying to, in the post I was replying to, when he said "even when it was probably not in our personal interest to do so [get vaccinated, even though he was in his 20s]".
Recommendation: Don't spout crap, unless you can be bothered to read what you're spouting about (or unless this site is now an anti-vaccination propaganda outlet).
Don't spout crap
Would you like to me to compare your forecasts for Covid cases in the UK with mine? And then we can talk about who has been talking crap.
What? You don't think someone saying it wasn't in their interest to get vaccinated because they were in their 20s is anti-vaccine drivel? Astonishing.
As for forecasts, I've made none. I've occasionally pointed out what would obviously happen under certain assumptions, which anyone numerate had the ability to check.
If you fancy yourself Nostradamus, that particular delusion is not my problem.
You forecast that there would be 800k cases a day. If I knew how to search for it (this is but one example where your superior intelligence might help) I would find your post.
Or actually if I could be bothered. That was it. So yes you did make a forecast.
"The country will face an “exit wave” of coronavirus infections whenever restrictions are lifted, England’s chief medical officer has said."
DEMONSTRABLY AN ABUSE OF THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
If we had seen cases rise and fall then fine. But we didn't. Cases rose. And with some variations at the top stayed largely the same. We didn't see the dropping away as we exit that wave. Its just stayed high permanently.
We did see them fall.
Because in the first phase schools were closed, in the second the schools were reopened.
Unless you have come to some perverted belief that schools don't affect transmission? Is that your claim now?
Lol
Covid cases 17th May 2,220 (7 day average). Then after we made changes a big spike and the pogoing highs and lows around the new baseline.
When you say "we did see them fall" it was to 25,722, a mere 11.5x higher than the start. And then up and up and up.
You are being so insane now, May was during restrictions, why the hell would it have to fall beneath the figure that is only achievable with restrictions? What an absurd suggestion (!)
Are you so naive and so unwilling to be realistic now that you can't tell the difference between transmission with schools closed and transmission with schools open now?
16 July 47,970.4 13 September 28,540.4
So the 7 day average halved until the schools went back, that's one wave.
You seem to be in utter denial. First you want us to exit the virus, then you want cases to fall below what they were when we were in lockdown. You just clearly haven't grasped the severity of reality have you?
You're getting irate at others because you're in complete denial.
More belly laughs at my end - this is great! Had it dropped to 28k and kept falling then that would have been great! Instead that was the new floor and then we saw an ever-increasing level of new floors. 28k. 33k, now 51k.
You said "We did see them fall. Because in the first phase schools were closed, in the second the schools were reopened." Yes. And then they went up again. And up some more. And some more.
We replaced the 2k cases a day with mask restrictions with a very best 28k a day and then up and up. If an ever-increasing number of cases is us exiting having cases then black truly is white.
Do keep it up, you're as funny as HYUFD foaming on about Toryism.
Why would it keep falling? Schools reopened! Then it became winter.
You are utterly delusional. Had we not had the exit wave we would have seen exponential growth with schools open, no restrictions and winter. To keep levels flat, while circumstances are getting worse, is proof that the wave has happened.
I'm not an expert on waves, but I don't think they're supposed to peak, and then just keep going at the level of the peak indefinitely.
One reason waves in the water form the pattern they do is the ground level is rising which causes the water to rise too.
In the UK since lifting lockdown the ground level for Covid's spread has been rising: Schools reopened, summer ended, winter began. And yet despite the ground level rising, the cases have been flat. Why?
The only reason the cases have been flat despite the higher ground level, is that the prior wave had just happened.
Imagine if it was the other way around, starting in winter with schools open, then going into spring, then summer, then the schools closed over summer holidays - if cases were flat over that, then you'd be confused why.
To have cases flat, while the ground level to boost Covid is getting higher, is proof that the wave had happened, not proof it didn't.
It's proof that the wave isn't over yet, which is proof that the (presumed) prior belief that it would crest and then break was wrong. In short, it is now conclusively proven to be Not a Wave.
Look at it another way: six months ago, was anyone predicting an "exit wave" that got stuck around 50k cases reported per day for months on end, if restrictions lifted?
Waves is funny things. One never knows, the dynamics muight have generatyed a soliton which moves forward as quickly as we do in time: see this ship in a canal 2:30 ON.
I think I understood this. Waves travel through time, meaning that a wave can happen before the event that caused it. I think I could squeeze a paper out of this and it'll make a big splash.
What are they trying to achieve here? I get the it's fun to see the wave sploosh up into a vertical jet at the end, but are they trying to model something? Coastal erosion?
Haven't a clue - one never knows with students. It might be the soliton itself that is the primary interest and the bit at the end of the canal is just to stop it sloshing all over the tarmac. But it could be of relevance to erosion in dead end canals and docks. Experimenting with different shapes - having one wave at a time simplifies analysis I suppose.
I have the sense that you'd be better off opening out the end of a canal into a wide, deep pool. But a spurty V thing could be a cool piece of public art, soaking the occasional unaware passerby.
I have to say in two years "exit the virus" is surely up there among the most stupid things said about it. That there's anyone who believes that is worrying and the government Comms needs to be updated to warn everyone that we're all going to get it and the best way to decrease likelihood of symptoms is to get vaccinated. There is no other game in town.
I agree! So why do you keep saying we had an exit wave?
Because we did? Immunity and vaccine coverage in the UK is the highest in the world. Despite all of the doom rhetoric from the scientists we're not in any lockdown while most of Europe has got severe restrictions on going anywhere. Omicron may change the game, it may not. But in the summer to now 11-13m people got the virus, 70-80% of them unvaccinated by choice. Would you rather they had zero immunity heading into the Omicron wave?
Don't take my word for it Chris Whitty said it in June. It was and remains the right strategy, everyone is going ti get COVID. Lockdowns and NPIs displace infections, but now the vaccine cavalry is already here, last winter it wasn't so displacement of 1000 infections was ~9.5 lives saved. Today displacement of infections will save close to zero lives, anyone who wants to be can get vaccinated. I walked into a pharmacy with my wife yesterday and we both got our boosters.
Again and again, the only game in town is vaccines. Lockdowns will do nothing because the moment we unlock the virus will be back. Infecting all those same idiots who refused the vaccine. Lockdown to save people who refused the vaccine is immoral, better to tell them to die at home.
The reality is that those who are calling for lockdowns are looking for a legislative safety blanket where none exists.
It has been my view throughout that it is not the role of the state to protect people from a virus. Measures to fundamentally restrict the liberties of e.g. children to 'protect' the very elderly and vulnerable are not IMO morally justified at the current CFR. Excessive safetyism is not a road I want the state to go down.
I am very proud to see so many Tory 'rebel' MPs standing up for liberty today. I would vote exactly the same way.
So I read, I am a foaming lockdown forever advocate. And yet I said days ago I would also vote against. We need measures to sustain businesses who get screwed by the shutdown being caused by Omicron running rampant. Not half-measures and excuses.
We need to see MPs back reviewing the latest data and proposals as they come out - instead Javid is proposing another enabling act where Peppa will rule by decree through the Christmas recess.
Unacceptable.
Or let those of us who want to continue as is, continue.
I'm in my early 30s. As are most of my mates. All of us just want to crack on.
Could you make it any more obvious you think you're invulnerable and you couldn't give a damn about anyone else?
@Chris, I'm in my late 20s so liable to piss you off even more than Mortimer.
The disease appears to be even less dangerous to us than it was before. We've got vaxxed even when it was probably not in our personal interest to do so.
Uni/college students and school pupils have missed out on the education that we all got. And people my age haven't travelled, met partners etc for nearly two years.
Do you give a damn about anyone else?
Not about people who are so self-obsessed that they're willing to put a higher priority on travel, "meeting partners" and respecting their anti-vaccine fantasies than on giving a toss whether other people die or not.
It's not that I think I'm particularly at risk myself. I don't have any particular risk factors and I've had a booster. It's just that people like you turn my stomach with your grotesque selfishness.
Ummm, other than @rural_voter, who has "anti-vaccine fantasies" on here?
The bloke I was replying to, in the post I was replying to, when he said "even when it was probably not in our personal interest to do so [get vaccinated, even though he was in his 20s]".
Recommendation: Don't spout crap, unless you can be bothered to read what you're spouting about (or unless this site is now an anti-vaccination propaganda outlet).
Bit weak, mate.
Bit weak? Quoting the anti-vaccine crap I was replying to?
Jesus wept!
The JCVI ruled that it wasn't in the interests of most 12-17 year olds to get the vaccine, because the (tiny) risk to them from the vaccine slightly outweighted the (even tinier) risk to them from getting the virus. They were told to have another go, and this time think about the impact to their education of missing months of school because they, their friends or their teachers had tested positive. However, the principle that vaccines were not in their personal interests stands, and the risk to people in their 20s is not that much higher. So, even if it's not actually true, the notion that those in their 20s had reasons not to take the vaccines is not so completely outlandish that you can dismiss it as "anti-vaccine crap" without sounding like a moron.
That was under the assumption that only 5% or so would get Covid.
Change the infection rate to 100% and you get a markedly different result.
Don't forget folks, the infections number is the government measure that counts first infections only. And Omicron cares not whether you had a previous variant.
Moron.
Really - we laughed when Robert Peston made the comment a while back but I don't think the methodology has changed.
No the moronic bit is suggesting that Omicron completely evades immunity from prior infection. We know that not to be true. RP is a moron and he's making things up to support his pro-lockdown forever view. I know he says otherwise but every post he makes is filled with the same bullshit zero COVID rhetoric from last year.
Yes the notion that prior infection provides zero protection against Omicron has to be the most absurd hysterical nonsense of this entire pandemic.
And he's inventing it because he wants to prove prior infections were a bad idea, not a good thing.
Either no intellectual honesty, or a complete moron.
And you can of course show where I said zero protection lol
Seriously, you need to decide which of you and Max are Hale and which is Pace. You're both hilarious this afternoon.
"And Omicron cares not whether you had a previous variant"
Literally right here you fool.
Wow. Because that is absolutely me saying "no protection" isn't it. Very very few people seemed to get Delta twice. But suddenly here we are in a panic trying to get needles into everyone's arms in 3 weeks because everyone is in the firing line for Omicron.
I have not said exit Covid. I have not said no protection. or any of the other things that you and Pace have been saying. I have pointed out that the significant dropping away of infection that was in that "exit wave" LSHTM report that you linked to hasn't happened. Nor has the sustained heavy rate of infection of all these other variants created natural immunity to Omicron.
You really need to chill. This is bad enough without you giving yourself conniptions. And in an argument with me as if my view has any more merit than yours or Philip's. Unless one of us is a leading virologist with access to the data model we're all pissing in the wind guessing. And I keep saying I am not in a position to predict this...
Does anyone have a précis of the Omicron situation in the United States?
Given the high level of unvaccinated out there it's going to cause carnage isn't it?
Since the orange one left office, our media has stopped reporting on COVID in the US&A.
If anything some of the states are becoming more idiotically opposed to taking action agains the coronavirus since Trump left. Their leaders see to see it as taking a stand against Biden and the Democrats by allowing many more of those they represent to die in the name of "freedom".
Don't forget folks, the infections number is the government measure that counts first infections only. And Omicron cares not whether you had a previous variant.
Moron.
Really? - we laughed when Robert Peston made the comment a while back but I don't think the methodology has changed.
Oh and I would recommend posting something beyond a single word reply - it's not adding anything and will probably result in someone's account being suspended as the admins get fed up with it.
I like him calling me a moron as he flails about in a panicked rage. If thats an outlet to keep him sane as the shitey depressing reality kicks in I am happy to provide the service.
I was an elected councillor where the mayor / council chair posted on Facebook that I should go back to where I came from and never darken his town again with my forrin genes. I laughed at that, I'm hardly going to be wound up by "moron" comments. It only bites when you respect their opinion.
No panic, I just actually think you're a moron. I think you have so little understanding about what you're talking about but keep spouting the same bullshit zero COVID lies that it must mean you're a moron. I don't think you're being dishonest, you just simply lack the mental capacity to understand.
And yet at no point have I said anything about zero Covid. Its like when @Anabobazina foams on about how I want lockdown forever, completely looking past the repeated posts I have made this afternoon about how I would vote against these restrictions which are incoherent and futile.
Honestly I couldn't care less if you think I am a moron or a genuis - it doesn't interest me either way. But you don't like having your own stuff quoted back at you and keep creating a strawman army with Philip and thats all fine. If it calms you down then good for you.
And yet here you were today proposing an "exit from the virus" what is that if not zero COVID?
No, I was quoting those words back to you which you cited from the LSHTM study which proposed it would have happened already. As I pointed out earlier.
Don't forget folks, the infections number is the government measure that counts first infections only. And Omicron cares not whether you had a previous variant.
Moron.
Really - we laughed when Robert Peston made the comment a while back but I don't think the methodology has changed.
No the moronic bit is suggesting that Omicron completely evades immunity from prior infection. We know that not to be true. RP is a moron and he's making things up to support his pro-lockdown forever view. I know he says otherwise but every post he makes is filled with the same bullshit zero COVID rhetoric from last year.
Yes the notion that prior infection provides zero protection against Omicron has to be the most absurd hysterical nonsense of this entire pandemic.
And he's inventing it because he wants to prove prior infections were a bad idea, not a good thing.
Either no intellectual honesty, or a complete moron.
And you can of course show where I said zero protection lol
Seriously, you need to decide which of you and Max are Hale and which is Pace. You're both hilarious this afternoon.
"And Omicron cares not whether you had a previous variant"
Literally right here you fool.
Wow. Because that is absolutely me saying "no protection" isn't it. Very very few people seemed to get Delta twice. But suddenly here we are in a panic trying to get needles into everyone's arms in 3 weeks because everyone is in the firing line for Omicron.
I have not said exit Covid. I have not said no protection. or any of the other things that you and Pace have been saying. I have pointed out that the significant dropping away of infection that was in that "exit wave" LSHTM report that you linked to hasn't happened. Nor has the sustained heavy rate of infection of all these other variants created natural immunity to Omicron.
You really need to chill. This is bad enough without you giving yourself conniptions. And in an argument with me as if my view has any more merit than yours or Philip's. Unless one of us is a leading virologist with access to the data model we're all pissing in the wind guessing. And I keep saying I am not in a position to predict this...
Err you said Omicron doesn't care if you have had COVID before. Either provide evidence for that claim or retract it.
As I said just now, I don't think you're being dishonest, you simply lack the mental capability to understand this situation, that's fine but don't make stuff up.
I have to say in two years "exit the virus" is surely up there among the most stupid things said about it. That there's anyone who believes that is worrying and the government Comms needs to be updated to warn everyone that we're all going to get it and the best way to decrease likelihood of symptoms is to get vaccinated. There is no other game in town.
I agree! So why do you keep saying we had an exit wave?
Because we did? Immunity and vaccine coverage in the UK is the highest in the world. Despite all of the doom rhetoric from the scientists we're not in any lockdown while most of Europe has got severe restrictions on going anywhere. Omicron may change the game, it may not. But in the summer to now 11-13m people got the virus, 70-80% of them unvaccinated by choice. Would you rather they had zero immunity heading into the Omicron wave?
Don't take my word for it Chris Whitty said it in June. It was and remains the right strategy, everyone is going ti get COVID. Lockdowns and NPIs displace infections, but now the vaccine cavalry is already here, last winter it wasn't so displacement of 1000 infections was ~9.5 lives saved. Today displacement of infections will save close to zero lives, anyone who wants to be can get vaccinated. I walked into a pharmacy with my wife yesterday and we both got our boosters.
Again and again, the only game in town is vaccines. Lockdowns will do nothing because the moment we unlock the virus will be back. Infecting all those same idiots who refused the vaccine. Lockdown to save people who refused the vaccine is immoral, better to tell them to die at home.
The reality is that those who are calling for lockdowns are looking for a legislative safety blanket where none exists.
It has been my view throughout that it is not the role of the state to protect people from a virus. Measures to fundamentally restrict the liberties of e.g. children to 'protect' the very elderly and vulnerable are not IMO morally justified at the current CFR. Excessive safetyism is not a road I want the state to go down.
I am very proud to see so many Tory 'rebel' MPs standing up for liberty today. I would vote exactly the same way.
So I read, I am a foaming lockdown forever advocate. And yet I said days ago I would also vote against. We need measures to sustain businesses who get screwed by the shutdown being caused by Omicron running rampant. Not half-measures and excuses.
We need to see MPs back reviewing the latest data and proposals as they come out - instead Javid is proposing another enabling act where Peppa will rule by decree through the Christmas recess.
Unacceptable.
Or let those of us who want to continue as is, continue.
I'm in my early 30s. As are most of my mates. All of us just want to crack on.
Could you make it any more obvious you think you're invulnerable and you couldn't give a damn about anyone else?
@Chris, I'm in my late 20s so liable to piss you off even more than Mortimer.
The disease appears to be even less dangerous to us than it was before. We've got vaxxed even when it was probably not in our personal interest to do so.
Uni/college students and school pupils have missed out on the education that we all got. And people my age haven't travelled, met partners etc for nearly two years.
Do you give a damn about anyone else?
Not about people who are so self-obsessed that they're willing to put a higher priority on travel, "meeting partners" and respecting their anti-vaccine fantasies than on giving a toss whether other people die or not.
It's not that I think I'm particularly at risk myself. I don't have any particular risk factors and I've had a booster. It's just that people like you turn my stomach with your grotesque selfishness.
Ummm, other than @rural_voter, who has "anti-vaccine fantasies" on here?
The bloke I was replying to, in the post I was replying to, when he said "even when it was probably not in our personal interest to do so [get vaccinated, even though he was in his 20s]".
Recommendation: Don't spout crap, unless you can be bothered to read what you're spouting about (or unless this site is now an anti-vaccination propaganda outlet).
Don't spout crap
Would you like to me to compare your forecasts for Covid cases in the UK with mine? And then we can talk about who has been talking crap.
What? You don't think someone saying it wasn't in their interest to get vaccinated because they were in their 20s is anti-vaccine drivel? Astonishing.
As for forecasts, I've made none. I've occasionally pointed out what would obviously happen under certain assumptions, which anyone numerate had the ability to check.
If you fancy yourself Nostradamus, that particular delusion is not my problem.
Um, what @Endillion said, admittedly after this but the info was available to you all the time. Are the JCVI anti vaccine fantasists? How embarrassing is it, 1-10, being you?
Of course the JVCI has never said vaccination represented a higher risk than non-vaccination to those in their 20s, even viewed from the purely selfish perspective.
Unbelievable that people are still pushing the anti-vaccine crap, even in the situation we're in now. Even more unbelievable that it's actually being supported by RCS.
"The country will face an “exit wave” of coronavirus infections whenever restrictions are lifted, England’s chief medical officer has said."
DEMONSTRABLY AN ABUSE OF THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
If we had seen cases rise and fall then fine. But we didn't. Cases rose. And with some variations at the top stayed largely the same. We didn't see the dropping away as we exit that wave. Its just stayed high permanently.
We did see them fall.
Because in the first phase schools were closed, in the second the schools were reopened.
Unless you have come to some perverted belief that schools don't affect transmission? Is that your claim now?
Lol
Covid cases 17th May 2,220 (7 day average). Then after we made changes a big spike and the pogoing highs and lows around the new baseline.
When you say "we did see them fall" it was to 25,722, a mere 11.5x higher than the start. And then up and up and up.
You are being so insane now, May was during restrictions, why the hell would it have to fall beneath the figure that is only achievable with restrictions? What an absurd suggestion (!)
Are you so naive and so unwilling to be realistic now that you can't tell the difference between transmission with schools closed and transmission with schools open now?
16 July 47,970.4 13 September 28,540.4
So the 7 day average halved until the schools went back, that's one wave.
You seem to be in utter denial. First you want us to exit the virus, then you want cases to fall below what they were when we were in lockdown. You just clearly haven't grasped the severity of reality have you?
You're getting irate at others because you're in complete denial.
More belly laughs at my end - this is great! Had it dropped to 28k and kept falling then that would have been great! Instead that was the new floor and then we saw an ever-increasing level of new floors. 28k. 33k, now 51k.
You said "We did see them fall. Because in the first phase schools were closed, in the second the schools were reopened." Yes. And then they went up again. And up some more. And some more.
We replaced the 2k cases a day with mask restrictions with a very best 28k a day and then up and up. If an ever-increasing number of cases is us exiting having cases then black truly is white.
Do keep it up, you're as funny as HYUFD foaming on about Toryism.
Why would it keep falling? Schools reopened! Then it became winter.
You are utterly delusional. Had we not had the exit wave we would have seen exponential growth with schools open, no restrictions and winter. To keep levels flat, while circumstances are getting worse, is proof that the wave has happened.
I'm not an expert on waves, but I don't think they're supposed to peak, and then just keep going at the level of the peak indefinitely.
One reason waves in the water form the pattern they do is the ground level is rising which causes the water to rise too.
In the UK since lifting lockdown the ground level for Covid's spread has been rising: Schools reopened, summer ended, winter began. And yet despite the ground level rising, the cases have been flat. Why?
The only reason the cases have been flat despite the higher ground level, is that the prior wave had just happened.
Imagine if it was the other way around, starting in winter with schools open, then going into spring, then summer, then the schools closed over summer holidays - if cases were flat over that, then you'd be confused why.
To have cases flat, while the ground level to boost Covid is getting higher, is proof that the wave had happened, not proof it didn't.
It's proof that the wave isn't over yet, which is proof that the (presumed) prior belief that it would crest and then break was wrong. In short, it is now conclusively proven to be Not a Wave.
Look at it another way: six months ago, was anyone predicting an "exit wave" that got stuck around 50k cases reported per day for months on end, if restrictions lifted?
Waves is funny things. One never knows, the dynamics muight have generatyed a soliton which moves forward as quickly as we do in time: see this ship in a canal 2:30 ON.
I think I understood this. Waves travel through time, meaning that a wave can happen before the event that caused it. I think I could squeeze a paper out of this and it'll make a big splash.
What are they trying to achieve here? I get the it's fun to see the wave sploosh up into a vertical jet at the end, but are they trying to model something? Coastal erosion?
Haven't a clue - one never knows with students. It might be the soliton itself that is the primary interest and the bit at the end of the canal is just to stop it sloshing all over the tarmac. But it could be of relevance to erosion in dead end canals and docks. Experimenting with different shapes - having one wave at a time simplifies analysis I suppose.
I have the sense that you'd be better off opening out the end of a canal into a wide, deep pool. But a spurty V thing could be a cool piece of public art, soaking the occasional unaware passerby.
Certainly much more fun to watch than arguing about omicron or NS without enough data ...
Don't forget folks, the infections number is the government measure that counts first infections only. And Omicron cares not whether you had a previous variant.
Isn’t that fake news? It has greater reinfections than Delta, but still in low single figures in percentage terms I think.
"Fake news". We know for a fact that the "catch rate" of infections is a percentage of the total. The official number is estimated by them to be c. 40% of the total number of actual infections. And its true that they don't count reinfections.
So even if the reinfection rate is only say 8% higher than Delta, we can do the maths easily. 60k cases today is 40%, so 150k total. And as that number rises the 8% example (if thats correct) propels the gap higher and the % caught in the official figure gets lower.
Either way the 200k that was rounds mocked by some on here the other day sounds like its realistic based on this.
It's ~5%. You've literally made up that 40% figure from thin air.
I'm sure I was quoting from Sajid Javid when he was talking about Omicron. It was the explanation about how they had 50k confirmed cased and believed the true figure to be 200k
It's 4% or so.
The confirmed cases vs real cases issue is that in no country, anywhere, have all the cases been tested. I tried a while back aligning the reported cases numbers with the ONS studies - the ratio of reported to real varied between the various peaks. Which makes so sense - when COVID peaks in the public consciousness, more people will get a test.
Don't forget folks, the infections number is the government measure that counts first infections only. And Omicron cares not whether you had a previous variant.
Moron.
Really - we laughed when Robert Peston made the comment a while back but I don't think the methodology has changed.
No the moronic bit is suggesting that Omicron completely evades immunity from prior infection. We know that not to be true. RP is a moron and he's making things up to support his pro-lockdown forever view. I know he says otherwise but every post he makes is filled with the same bullshit zero COVID rhetoric from last year.
Yes the notion that prior infection provides zero protection against Omicron has to be the most absurd hysterical nonsense of this entire pandemic.
And he's inventing it because he wants to prove prior infections were a bad idea, not a good thing.
Either no intellectual honesty, or a complete moron.
And you can of course show where I said zero protection lol
Seriously, you need to decide which of you and Max are Hale and which is Pace. You're both hilarious this afternoon.
"And Omicron cares not whether you had a previous variant"
Literally right here you fool.
Wow. Because that is absolutely me saying "no protection" isn't it. Very very few people seemed to get Delta twice. But suddenly here we are in a panic trying to get needles into everyone's arms in 3 weeks because everyone is in the firing line for Omicron.
I have not said exit Covid. I have not said no protection. or any of the other things that you and Pace have been saying. I have pointed out that the significant dropping away of infection that was in that "exit wave" LSHTM report that you linked to hasn't happened. Nor has the sustained heavy rate of infection of all these other variants created natural immunity to Omicron.
You really need to chill. This is bad enough without you giving yourself conniptions. And in an argument with me as if my view has any more merit than yours or Philip's. Unless one of us is a leading virologist with access to the data model we're all pissing in the wind guessing. And I keep saying I am not in a position to predict this...
Err you said Omicron doesn't care if you have had COVID before. Either provide evidence for that claim or retract it.
I thought I just had. The dominant strain is now going to be Omicron. Where our existing defences are no longer enough. So we all need a 3rd jab whether we are "fully vaccinated" or recovered from another variant. The reinfection rate of Omicron if you had delta clearly isn't 0% or 100% as you and Hale keep trying to say it is.
Some unlucky bastards are getting reinfected. They weren't with Delta, and they need a booster despite 2 shots and the previous infection. So it doesn't care if you had Delta as it can hit you again hence the need for a booster.
I think this is only controversial to you and the few others who had been ramping that the failed exit wave now gave us all immunity. Well quite. Hence the panic need for a million boosters a day.
18 months. What do we think? I'm not sure why the driver wasn't prosecuted for attempted murder.
They don't like prosecuting drivers for that sort of general offence. This was Causing Serious Injury by Dangerous Driving, which has a max sentence of 5 years.
I'd say that 3-3.5 years would be more like it for the physical and psychological injuries caused and the behaviour displayed, and that "moment of madness" is a crappy defence when calmness and focus is the most important factor for anyone driving any car on a public road. The initial collision was caused by a third party obstructing the cyclist.
Quite ironic that he is bang to rights due to his own dashcam.
I'm not sure if GBH level harm (which is how it is defined) is enough to come under the Unduly Lenient Sentencing review scheme, but someone may refer it. But the list of offences for that is tilted towards the sexual.
Don't forget folks, the infections number is the government measure that counts first infections only. And Omicron cares not whether you had a previous variant.
Moron.
Really - we laughed when Robert Peston made the comment a while back but I don't think the methodology has changed.
No the moronic bit is suggesting that Omicron completely evades immunity from prior infection. We know that not to be true. RP is a moron and he's making things up to support his pro-lockdown forever view. I know he says otherwise but every post he makes is filled with the same bullshit zero COVID rhetoric from last year.
Yes the notion that prior infection provides zero protection against Omicron has to be the most absurd hysterical nonsense of this entire pandemic.
And he's inventing it because he wants to prove prior infections were a bad idea, not a good thing.
Either no intellectual honesty, or a complete moron.
And you can of course show where I said zero protection lol
Seriously, you need to decide which of you and Max are Hale and which is Pace. You're both hilarious this afternoon.
"And Omicron cares not whether you had a previous variant"
Literally right here you fool.
Wow. Because that is absolutely me saying "no protection" isn't it. Very very few people seemed to get Delta twice. But suddenly here we are in a panic trying to get needles into everyone's arms in 3 weeks because everyone is in the firing line for Omicron.
I have not said exit Covid. I have not said no protection. or any of the other things that you and Pace have been saying. I have pointed out that the significant dropping away of infection that was in that "exit wave" LSHTM report that you linked to hasn't happened. Nor has the sustained heavy rate of infection of all these other variants created natural immunity to Omicron.
You really need to chill. This is bad enough without you giving yourself conniptions. And in an argument with me as if my view has any more merit than yours or Philip's. Unless one of us is a leading virologist with access to the data model we're all pissing in the wind guessing. And I keep saying I am not in a position to predict this...
Err you said Omicron doesn't care if you have had COVID before. Either provide evidence for that claim or retract it.
I thought I just had. The dominant strain is now going to be Omicron. Where our existing defences are no longer enough. So we all need a 3rd jab whether we are "fully vaccinated" or recovered from another variant. The reinfection rate of Omicron if you had delta clearly isn't 0% or 100% as you and Hale keep trying to say it is.
Some unlucky bastards are getting reinfected. They weren't with Delta, and they need a booster despite 2 shots and the previous infection. So it doesn't care if you had Delta as it can hit you again hence the need for a booster.
I think this is only controversial to you and the few others who had been ramping that the failed exit wave now gave us all immunity. Well quite. Hence the panic need for a million boosters a day.
What evidence have you provided, all I see is more made up stats.
"The country will face an “exit wave” of coronavirus infections whenever restrictions are lifted, England’s chief medical officer has said."
DEMONSTRABLY AN ABUSE OF THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
If we had seen cases rise and fall then fine. But we didn't. Cases rose. And with some variations at the top stayed largely the same. We didn't see the dropping away as we exit that wave. Its just stayed high permanently.
We did see them fall.
Because in the first phase schools were closed, in the second the schools were reopened.
Unless you have come to some perverted belief that schools don't affect transmission? Is that your claim now?
Lol
Covid cases 17th May 2,220 (7 day average). Then after we made changes a big spike and the pogoing highs and lows around the new baseline.
When you say "we did see them fall" it was to 25,722, a mere 11.5x higher than the start. And then up and up and up.
You are being so insane now, May was during restrictions, why the hell would it have to fall beneath the figure that is only achievable with restrictions? What an absurd suggestion (!)
Are you so naive and so unwilling to be realistic now that you can't tell the difference between transmission with schools closed and transmission with schools open now?
16 July 47,970.4 13 September 28,540.4
So the 7 day average halved until the schools went back, that's one wave.
You seem to be in utter denial. First you want us to exit the virus, then you want cases to fall below what they were when we were in lockdown. You just clearly haven't grasped the severity of reality have you?
You're getting irate at others because you're in complete denial.
More belly laughs at my end - this is great! Had it dropped to 28k and kept falling then that would have been great! Instead that was the new floor and then we saw an ever-increasing level of new floors. 28k. 33k, now 51k.
You said "We did see them fall. Because in the first phase schools were closed, in the second the schools were reopened." Yes. And then they went up again. And up some more. And some more.
We replaced the 2k cases a day with mask restrictions with a very best 28k a day and then up and up. If an ever-increasing number of cases is us exiting having cases then black truly is white.
Do keep it up, you're as funny as HYUFD foaming on about Toryism.
Why would it keep falling? Schools reopened! Then it became winter.
You are utterly delusional. Had we not had the exit wave we would have seen exponential growth with schools open, no restrictions and winter. To keep levels flat, while circumstances are getting worse, is proof that the wave has happened.
I'm not an expert on waves, but I don't think they're supposed to peak, and then just keep going at the level of the peak indefinitely.
One reason waves in the water form the pattern they do is the ground level is rising which causes the water to rise too.
In the UK since lifting lockdown the ground level for Covid's spread has been rising: Schools reopened, summer ended, winter began. And yet despite the ground level rising, the cases have been flat. Why?
The only reason the cases have been flat despite the higher ground level, is that the prior wave had just happened.
Imagine if it was the other way around, starting in winter with schools open, then going into spring, then summer, then the schools closed over summer holidays - if cases were flat over that, then you'd be confused why.
To have cases flat, while the ground level to boost Covid is getting higher, is proof that the wave had happened, not proof it didn't.
It's proof that the wave isn't over yet, which is proof that the (presumed) prior belief that it would crest and then break was wrong. In short, it is now conclusively proven to be Not a Wave.
Look at it another way: six months ago, was anyone predicting an "exit wave" that got stuck around 50k cases reported per day for months on end, if restrictions lifted?
Waves is funny things. One never knows, the dynamics muight have generatyed a soliton which moves forward as quickly as we do in time: see this ship in a canal 2:30 ON.
I think I understood this. Waves travel through time, meaning that a wave can happen before the event that caused it. I think I could squeeze a paper out of this and it'll make a big splash.
What are they trying to achieve here? I get the it's fun to see the wave sploosh up into a vertical jet at the end, but are they trying to model something? Coastal erosion?
Haven't a clue - one never knows with students. It might be the soliton itself that is the primary interest and the bit at the end of the canal is just to stop it sloshing all over the tarmac. But it could be of relevance to erosion in dead end canals and docks. Experimenting with different shapes - having one wave at a time simplifies analysis I suppose.
There is quite a bit of engineering interest in shapes that "kill" waves. Some strategically placed pilings in the Thames, protecting a small number house boats, made a big increase in passenger numbers on the Thames possible.
"The country will face an “exit wave” of coronavirus infections whenever restrictions are lifted, England’s chief medical officer has said."
DEMONSTRABLY AN ABUSE OF THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
If we had seen cases rise and fall then fine. But we didn't. Cases rose. And with some variations at the top stayed largely the same. We didn't see the dropping away as we exit that wave. Its just stayed high permanently.
We did see them fall.
Because in the first phase schools were closed, in the second the schools were reopened.
Unless you have come to some perverted belief that schools don't affect transmission? Is that your claim now?
Lol
Covid cases 17th May 2,220 (7 day average). Then after we made changes a big spike and the pogoing highs and lows around the new baseline.
When you say "we did see them fall" it was to 25,722, a mere 11.5x higher than the start. And then up and up and up.
You are being so insane now, May was during restrictions, why the hell would it have to fall beneath the figure that is only achievable with restrictions? What an absurd suggestion (!)
Are you so naive and so unwilling to be realistic now that you can't tell the difference between transmission with schools closed and transmission with schools open now?
16 July 47,970.4 13 September 28,540.4
So the 7 day average halved until the schools went back, that's one wave.
You seem to be in utter denial. First you want us to exit the virus, then you want cases to fall below what they were when we were in lockdown. You just clearly haven't grasped the severity of reality have you?
You're getting irate at others because you're in complete denial.
More belly laughs at my end - this is great! Had it dropped to 28k and kept falling then that would have been great! Instead that was the new floor and then we saw an ever-increasing level of new floors. 28k. 33k, now 51k.
You said "We did see them fall. Because in the first phase schools were closed, in the second the schools were reopened." Yes. And then they went up again. And up some more. And some more.
We replaced the 2k cases a day with mask restrictions with a very best 28k a day and then up and up. If an ever-increasing number of cases is us exiting having cases then black truly is white.
Do keep it up, you're as funny as HYUFD foaming on about Toryism.
Why would it keep falling? Schools reopened! Then it became winter.
You are utterly delusional. Had we not had the exit wave we would have seen exponential growth with schools open, no restrictions and winter. To keep levels flat, while circumstances are getting worse, is proof that the wave has happened.
I'm not an expert on waves, but I don't think they're supposed to peak, and then just keep going at the level of the peak indefinitely.
One reason waves in the water form the pattern they do is the ground level is rising which causes the water to rise too.
In the UK since lifting lockdown the ground level for Covid's spread has been rising: Schools reopened, summer ended, winter began. And yet despite the ground level rising, the cases have been flat. Why?
The only reason the cases have been flat despite the higher ground level, is that the prior wave had just happened.
Imagine if it was the other way around, starting in winter with schools open, then going into spring, then summer, then the schools closed over summer holidays - if cases were flat over that, then you'd be confused why.
To have cases flat, while the ground level to boost Covid is getting higher, is proof that the wave had happened, not proof it didn't.
It's proof that the wave isn't over yet, which is proof that the (presumed) prior belief that it would crest and then break was wrong. In short, it is now conclusively proven to be Not a Wave.
Look at it another way: six months ago, was anyone predicting an "exit wave" that got stuck around 50k cases reported per day for months on end, if restrictions lifted?
Waves is funny things. One never knows, the dynamics muight have generatyed a soliton which moves forward as quickly as we do in time: see this ship in a canal 2:30 ON.
I think I understood this. Waves travel through time, meaning that a wave can happen before the event that caused it. I think I could squeeze a paper out of this and it'll make a big splash.
What are they trying to achieve here? I get the it's fun to see the wave sploosh up into a vertical jet at the end, but are they trying to model something? Coastal erosion?
Haven't a clue - one never knows with students. It might be the soliton itself that is the primary interest and the bit at the end of the canal is just to stop it sloshing all over the tarmac. But it could be of relevance to erosion in dead end canals and docks. Experimenting with different shapes - having one wave at a time simplifies analysis I suppose.
I have the sense that you'd be better off opening out the end of a canal into a wide, deep pool. But a spurty V thing could be a cool piece of public art, soaking the occasional unaware passerby.
You can see something very much like a soliton by standing next to the River Severn (or the River Trent) at the right time of day...
"The country will face an “exit wave” of coronavirus infections whenever restrictions are lifted, England’s chief medical officer has said."
DEMONSTRABLY AN ABUSE OF THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
If we had seen cases rise and fall then fine. But we didn't. Cases rose. And with some variations at the top stayed largely the same. We didn't see the dropping away as we exit that wave. Its just stayed high permanently.
We did see them fall.
Because in the first phase schools were closed, in the second the schools were reopened.
Unless you have come to some perverted belief that schools don't affect transmission? Is that your claim now?
Lol
Covid cases 17th May 2,220 (7 day average). Then after we made changes a big spike and the pogoing highs and lows around the new baseline.
When you say "we did see them fall" it was to 25,722, a mere 11.5x higher than the start. And then up and up and up.
You are being so insane now, May was during restrictions, why the hell would it have to fall beneath the figure that is only achievable with restrictions? What an absurd suggestion (!)
Are you so naive and so unwilling to be realistic now that you can't tell the difference between transmission with schools closed and transmission with schools open now?
16 July 47,970.4 13 September 28,540.4
So the 7 day average halved until the schools went back, that's one wave.
You seem to be in utter denial. First you want us to exit the virus, then you want cases to fall below what they were when we were in lockdown. You just clearly haven't grasped the severity of reality have you?
You're getting irate at others because you're in complete denial.
More belly laughs at my end - this is great! Had it dropped to 28k and kept falling then that would have been great! Instead that was the new floor and then we saw an ever-increasing level of new floors. 28k. 33k, now 51k.
You said "We did see them fall. Because in the first phase schools were closed, in the second the schools were reopened." Yes. And then they went up again. And up some more. And some more.
We replaced the 2k cases a day with mask restrictions with a very best 28k a day and then up and up. If an ever-increasing number of cases is us exiting having cases then black truly is white.
Do keep it up, you're as funny as HYUFD foaming on about Toryism.
Why would it keep falling? Schools reopened! Then it became winter.
You are utterly delusional. Had we not had the exit wave we would have seen exponential growth with schools open, no restrictions and winter. To keep levels flat, while circumstances are getting worse, is proof that the wave has happened.
I'm not an expert on waves, but I don't think they're supposed to peak, and then just keep going at the level of the peak indefinitely.
One reason waves in the water form the pattern they do is the ground level is rising which causes the water to rise too.
In the UK since lifting lockdown the ground level for Covid's spread has been rising: Schools reopened, summer ended, winter began. And yet despite the ground level rising, the cases have been flat. Why?
The only reason the cases have been flat despite the higher ground level, is that the prior wave had just happened.
Imagine if it was the other way around, starting in winter with schools open, then going into spring, then summer, then the schools closed over summer holidays - if cases were flat over that, then you'd be confused why.
To have cases flat, while the ground level to boost Covid is getting higher, is proof that the wave had happened, not proof it didn't.
It's proof that the wave isn't over yet, which is proof that the (presumed) prior belief that it would crest and then break was wrong. In short, it is now conclusively proven to be Not a Wave.
Look at it another way: six months ago, was anyone predicting an "exit wave" that got stuck around 50k cases reported per day for months on end, if restrictions lifted?
Waves is funny things. One never knows, the dynamics muight have generatyed a soliton which moves forward as quickly as we do in time: see this ship in a canal 2:30 ON.
I think I understood this. Waves travel through time, meaning that a wave can happen before the event that caused it. I think I could squeeze a paper out of this and it'll make a big splash.
What are they trying to achieve here? I get the it's fun to see the wave sploosh up into a vertical jet at the end, but are they trying to model something? Coastal erosion?
Haven't a clue - one never knows with students. It might be the soliton itself that is the primary interest and the bit at the end of the canal is just to stop it sloshing all over the tarmac. But it could be of relevance to erosion in dead end canals and docks. Experimenting with different shapes - having one wave at a time simplifies analysis I suppose.
I have the sense that you'd be better off opening out the end of a canal into a wide, deep pool. But a spurty V thing could be a cool piece of public art, soaking the occasional unaware passerby.
You can see something very much like a soliton by standing next to the River Severn (or the River Trent) at the right time of day...
The incredible juxtaposition of half of Westminster coming down of Covid on the eve of a big Tory rebellion against Covid restrictions is the season finale 2021 was looking for https://twitter.com/EdwardJDavey/status/1470799914007420933
Sophia Sleigh @SophiaSleigh · 2h Wes Streeting giving it some substance and style. Labour's got an impressive Commons' performer on the front bench there, imho. Quite the extraordinary opener to his speech - pointing out to Tory MPs that govt ministers are "not Nazis".
It's depressing that MPs were making Nazi comparisons, and well done to him for calling it out. Silly language from the frothers. No MP in the current parliament is a Nazi.
Well said, and it is becoming clearer by the day that not only Boris has damaged the party but now upto 80 of his mps seem intent on endorsing the damage in the court of public opinion
Don't forget folks, the infections number is the government measure that counts first infections only. And Omicron cares not whether you had a previous variant.
Moron.
Really - we laughed when Robert Peston made the comment a while back but I don't think the methodology has changed.
No the moronic bit is suggesting that Omicron completely evades immunity from prior infection. We know that not to be true. RP is a moron and he's making things up to support his pro-lockdown forever view. I know he says otherwise but every post he makes is filled with the same bullshit zero COVID rhetoric from last year.
Yes the notion that prior infection provides zero protection against Omicron has to be the most absurd hysterical nonsense of this entire pandemic.
And he's inventing it because he wants to prove prior infections were a bad idea, not a good thing.
Either no intellectual honesty, or a complete moron.
And you can of course show where I said zero protection lol
Seriously, you need to decide which of you and Max are Hale and which is Pace. You're both hilarious this afternoon.
"Omicron cares not whether you had a previous variant." "we have the same lack of immunity to Omicron"
Omicron does care whether you had a previous variant and past infections is not a lack of immunity, its slightly reduced immunity.
I have to say in two years "exit the virus" is surely up there among the most stupid things said about it. That there's anyone who believes that is worrying and the government Comms needs to be updated to warn everyone that we're all going to get it and the best way to decrease likelihood of symptoms is to get vaccinated. There is no other game in town.
I agree! So why do you keep saying we had an exit wave?
Because we did? Immunity and vaccine coverage in the UK is the highest in the world. Despite all of the doom rhetoric from the scientists we're not in any lockdown while most of Europe has got severe restrictions on going anywhere. Omicron may change the game, it may not. But in the summer to now 11-13m people got the virus, 70-80% of them unvaccinated by choice. Would you rather they had zero immunity heading into the Omicron wave?
Don't take my word for it Chris Whitty said it in June. It was and remains the right strategy, everyone is going ti get COVID. Lockdowns and NPIs displace infections, but now the vaccine cavalry is already here, last winter it wasn't so displacement of 1000 infections was ~9.5 lives saved. Today displacement of infections will save close to zero lives, anyone who wants to be can get vaccinated. I walked into a pharmacy with my wife yesterday and we both got our boosters.
Again and again, the only game in town is vaccines. Lockdowns will do nothing because the moment we unlock the virus will be back. Infecting all those same idiots who refused the vaccine. Lockdown to save people who refused the vaccine is immoral, better to tell them to die at home.
The reality is that those who are calling for lockdowns are looking for a legislative safety blanket where none exists.
It has been my view throughout that it is not the role of the state to protect people from a virus. Measures to fundamentally restrict the liberties of e.g. children to 'protect' the very elderly and vulnerable are not IMO morally justified at the current CFR. Excessive safetyism is not a road I want the state to go down.
I am very proud to see so many Tory 'rebel' MPs standing up for liberty today. I would vote exactly the same way.
So I read, I am a foaming lockdown forever advocate. And yet I said days ago I would also vote against. We need measures to sustain businesses who get screwed by the shutdown being caused by Omicron running rampant. Not half-measures and excuses.
We need to see MPs back reviewing the latest data and proposals as they come out - instead Javid is proposing another enabling act where Peppa will rule by decree through the Christmas recess.
Unacceptable.
Or let those of us who want to continue as is, continue.
I'm in my early 30s. As are most of my mates. All of us just want to crack on.
Could you make it any more obvious you think you're invulnerable and you couldn't give a damn about anyone else?
@Chris, I'm in my late 20s so liable to piss you off even more than Mortimer.
The disease appears to be even less dangerous to us than it was before. We've got vaxxed even when it was probably not in our personal interest to do so.
Uni/college students and school pupils have missed out on the education that we all got. And people my age haven't travelled, met partners etc for nearly two years.
Do you give a damn about anyone else?
Not about people who are so self-obsessed that they're willing to put a higher priority on travel, "meeting partners" and respecting their anti-vaccine fantasies than on giving a toss whether other people die or not.
It's not that I think I'm particularly at risk myself. I don't have any particular risk factors and I've had a booster. It's just that people like you turn my stomach with your grotesque selfishness.
Ummm, other than @rural_voter, who has "anti-vaccine fantasies" on here?
The bloke I was replying to, in the post I was replying to, when he said "even when it was probably not in our personal interest to do so [get vaccinated, even though he was in his 20s]".
Recommendation: Don't spout crap, unless you can be bothered to read what you're spouting about (or unless this site is now an anti-vaccination propaganda outlet).
Don't spout crap
Would you like to me to compare your forecasts for Covid cases in the UK with mine? And then we can talk about who has been talking crap.
What? You don't think someone saying it wasn't in their interest to get vaccinated because they were in their 20s is anti-vaccine drivel? Astonishing.
As for forecasts, I've made none. I've occasionally pointed out what would obviously happen under certain assumptions, which anyone numerate had the ability to check.
If you fancy yourself Nostradamus, that particular delusion is not my problem.
Um, what @Endillion said, admittedly after this but the info was available to you all the time. Are the JCVI anti vaccine fantasists? How embarrassing is it, 1-10, being you?
Of course the JVCI has never said vaccination represented a higher risk than non-vaccination to those in their 20s, even viewed from the purely selfish perspective.
Unbelievable that people are still pushing the anti-vaccine crap, even in the situation we're in now. Even more unbelievable that it's actually being supported by RCS.
Nobody is pushing an anti-vaccine argument, you numptoid wazzock. That is just not a thing which has happened. you are tilting at windmills, you are going into paroxysms over the safety of people who are a lot less obsessed with it than you are, and you think "meeting partners" is such an outlandish aspiration it needs putting in scare quotes. Odd person.
Don't forget folks, the infections number is the government measure that counts first infections only. And Omicron cares not whether you had a previous variant.
Moron.
Really - we laughed when Robert Peston made the comment a while back but I don't think the methodology has changed.
No the moronic bit is suggesting that Omicron completely evades immunity from prior infection. We know that not to be true. RP is a moron and he's making things up to support his pro-lockdown forever view. I know he says otherwise but every post he makes is filled with the same bullshit zero COVID rhetoric from last year.
Yes the notion that prior infection provides zero protection against Omicron has to be the most absurd hysterical nonsense of this entire pandemic.
And he's inventing it because he wants to prove prior infections were a bad idea, not a good thing.
Either no intellectual honesty, or a complete moron.
And you can of course show where I said zero protection lol
Seriously, you need to decide which of you and Max are Hale and which is Pace. You're both hilarious this afternoon.
"Omicron cares not whether you had a previous variant." "we have the same lack of immunity to Omicron"
Omicron does care whether you had a previous variant and past infections is not a lack of immunity, its slightly reduced immunity.
It's actually quite funny how far he's got to dig in now, he's willing the virus on to reinfect people despite evidence that symptomatic reinfection with Omicron is actually pretty low. I guess he'll never be able to admit that going into winter with 8-10m people with some immunity is better than going into the winter with 8-10m people having no immunity.
"The country will face an “exit wave” of coronavirus infections whenever restrictions are lifted, England’s chief medical officer has said."
DEMONSTRABLY AN ABUSE OF THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
If we had seen cases rise and fall then fine. But we didn't. Cases rose. And with some variations at the top stayed largely the same. We didn't see the dropping away as we exit that wave. Its just stayed high permanently.
We did see them fall.
Because in the first phase schools were closed, in the second the schools were reopened.
Unless you have come to some perverted belief that schools don't affect transmission? Is that your claim now?
Lol
Covid cases 17th May 2,220 (7 day average). Then after we made changes a big spike and the pogoing highs and lows around the new baseline.
When you say "we did see them fall" it was to 25,722, a mere 11.5x higher than the start. And then up and up and up.
You are being so insane now, May was during restrictions, why the hell would it have to fall beneath the figure that is only achievable with restrictions? What an absurd suggestion (!)
Are you so naive and so unwilling to be realistic now that you can't tell the difference between transmission with schools closed and transmission with schools open now?
16 July 47,970.4 13 September 28,540.4
So the 7 day average halved until the schools went back, that's one wave.
You seem to be in utter denial. First you want us to exit the virus, then you want cases to fall below what they were when we were in lockdown. You just clearly haven't grasped the severity of reality have you?
You're getting irate at others because you're in complete denial.
More belly laughs at my end - this is great! Had it dropped to 28k and kept falling then that would have been great! Instead that was the new floor and then we saw an ever-increasing level of new floors. 28k. 33k, now 51k.
You said "We did see them fall. Because in the first phase schools were closed, in the second the schools were reopened." Yes. And then they went up again. And up some more. And some more.
We replaced the 2k cases a day with mask restrictions with a very best 28k a day and then up and up. If an ever-increasing number of cases is us exiting having cases then black truly is white.
Do keep it up, you're as funny as HYUFD foaming on about Toryism.
Why would it keep falling? Schools reopened! Then it became winter.
You are utterly delusional. Had we not had the exit wave we would have seen exponential growth with schools open, no restrictions and winter. To keep levels flat, while circumstances are getting worse, is proof that the wave has happened.
I'm not an expert on waves, but I don't think they're supposed to peak, and then just keep going at the level of the peak indefinitely.
One reason waves in the water form the pattern they do is the ground level is rising which causes the water to rise too.
In the UK since lifting lockdown the ground level for Covid's spread has been rising: Schools reopened, summer ended, winter began. And yet despite the ground level rising, the cases have been flat. Why?
The only reason the cases have been flat despite the higher ground level, is that the prior wave had just happened.
Imagine if it was the other way around, starting in winter with schools open, then going into spring, then summer, then the schools closed over summer holidays - if cases were flat over that, then you'd be confused why.
To have cases flat, while the ground level to boost Covid is getting higher, is proof that the wave had happened, not proof it didn't.
It's proof that the wave isn't over yet, which is proof that the (presumed) prior belief that it would crest and then break was wrong. In short, it is now conclusively proven to be Not a Wave.
Look at it another way: six months ago, was anyone predicting an "exit wave" that got stuck around 50k cases reported per day for months on end, if restrictions lifted?
Waves is funny things. One never knows, the dynamics muight have generatyed a soliton which moves forward as quickly as we do in time: see this ship in a canal 2:30 ON.
I think I understood this. Waves travel through time, meaning that a wave can happen before the event that caused it. I think I could squeeze a paper out of this and it'll make a big splash.
What are they trying to achieve here? I get the it's fun to see the wave sploosh up into a vertical jet at the end, but are they trying to model something? Coastal erosion?
Haven't a clue - one never knows with students. It might be the soliton itself that is the primary interest and the bit at the end of the canal is just to stop it sloshing all over the tarmac. But it could be of relevance to erosion in dead end canals and docks. Experimenting with different shapes - having one wave at a time simplifies analysis I suppose.
I have the sense that you'd be better off opening out the end of a canal into a wide, deep pool. But a spurty V thing could be a cool piece of public art, soaking the occasional unaware passerby.
You can see something very much like a soliton by standing next to the River Severn (or the River Trent) at the right time of day...
Bore!
Yeah, I know. We can't all be Leon.
(It is the train of waves behind the front bore wave that are most soliton like, of course)
One of the small cohort of Labour rebels on mandatory vaccination for healthcare workers has played the race card. One of her justifications for opposing the measure is that it is discriminatory, because black staff are less likely to be vaccinated.
Presumably, if and when Omicron scythes through the workforce and a disproportionately large number of black staff end up dead because they aren't vaccinated, said rebel will be back to play the race card again and accuse the NHS and/or the Government of being institutionally racist?
I have to say in two years "exit the virus" is surely up there among the most stupid things said about it. That there's anyone who believes that is worrying and the government Comms needs to be updated to warn everyone that we're all going to get it and the best way to decrease likelihood of symptoms is to get vaccinated. There is no other game in town.
I agree! So why do you keep saying we had an exit wave?
Because we did? Immunity and vaccine coverage in the UK is the highest in the world. Despite all of the doom rhetoric from the scientists we're not in any lockdown while most of Europe has got severe restrictions on going anywhere. Omicron may change the game, it may not. But in the summer to now 11-13m people got the virus, 70-80% of them unvaccinated by choice. Would you rather they had zero immunity heading into the Omicron wave?
Don't take my word for it Chris Whitty said it in June. It was and remains the right strategy, everyone is going ti get COVID. Lockdowns and NPIs displace infections, but now the vaccine cavalry is already here, last winter it wasn't so displacement of 1000 infections was ~9.5 lives saved. Today displacement of infections will save close to zero lives, anyone who wants to be can get vaccinated. I walked into a pharmacy with my wife yesterday and we both got our boosters.
Again and again, the only game in town is vaccines. Lockdowns will do nothing because the moment we unlock the virus will be back. Infecting all those same idiots who refused the vaccine. Lockdown to save people who refused the vaccine is immoral, better to tell them to die at home.
The reality is that those who are calling for lockdowns are looking for a legislative safety blanket where none exists.
It has been my view throughout that it is not the role of the state to protect people from a virus. Measures to fundamentally restrict the liberties of e.g. children to 'protect' the very elderly and vulnerable are not IMO morally justified at the current CFR. Excessive safetyism is not a road I want the state to go down.
I am very proud to see so many Tory 'rebel' MPs standing up for liberty today. I would vote exactly the same way.
So I read, I am a foaming lockdown forever advocate. And yet I said days ago I would also vote against. We need measures to sustain businesses who get screwed by the shutdown being caused by Omicron running rampant. Not half-measures and excuses.
We need to see MPs back reviewing the latest data and proposals as they come out - instead Javid is proposing another enabling act where Peppa will rule by decree through the Christmas recess.
Unacceptable.
Or let those of us who want to continue as is, continue.
I'm in my early 30s. As are most of my mates. All of us just want to crack on.
Could you make it any more obvious you think you're invulnerable and you couldn't give a damn about anyone else?
@Chris, I'm in my late 20s so liable to piss you off even more than Mortimer.
The disease appears to be even less dangerous to us than it was before. We've got vaxxed even when it was probably not in our personal interest to do so.
Uni/college students and school pupils have missed out on the education that we all got. And people my age haven't travelled, met partners etc for nearly two years.
Do you give a damn about anyone else?
Not about people who are so self-obsessed that they're willing to put a higher priority on travel, "meeting partners" and respecting their anti-vaccine fantasies than on giving a toss whether other people die or not.
It's not that I think I'm particularly at risk myself. I don't have any particular risk factors and I've had a booster. It's just that people like you turn my stomach with your grotesque selfishness.
Ummm, other than @rural_voter, who has "anti-vaccine fantasies" on here?
The bloke I was replying to, in the post I was replying to, when he said "even when it was probably not in our personal interest to do so [get vaccinated, even though he was in his 20s]".
Recommendation: Don't spout crap, unless you can be bothered to read what you're spouting about (or unless this site is now an anti-vaccination propaganda outlet).
Don't spout crap
Would you like to me to compare your forecasts for Covid cases in the UK with mine? And then we can talk about who has been talking crap.
What? You don't think someone saying it wasn't in their interest to get vaccinated because they were in their 20s is anti-vaccine drivel? Astonishing.
As for forecasts, I've made none. I've occasionally pointed out what would obviously happen under certain assumptions, which anyone numerate had the ability to check.
If you fancy yourself Nostradamus, that particular delusion is not my problem.
Um, what @Endillion said, admittedly after this but the info was available to you all the time. Are the JCVI anti vaccine fantasists? How embarrassing is it, 1-10, being you?
Of course the JVCI has never said vaccination represented a higher risk than non-vaccination to those in their 20s, even viewed from the purely selfish perspective.
Unbelievable that people are still pushing the anti-vaccine crap, even in the situation we're in now. Even more unbelievable that it's actually being supported by RCS.
Nobody is pushing an anti-vaccine argument, you numptoid wazzock.
Again. In simple words.
I was responding to someone who said it was more risky to be vaccinated than not. Because he was in his 20s.
Are you too stupid to understand that that is an anti-vaccine argument? And totally fallacious?
Don't forget folks, the infections number is the government measure that counts first infections only. And Omicron cares not whether you had a previous variant.
Moron.
Really - we laughed when Robert Peston made the comment a while back but I don't think the methodology has changed.
No the moronic bit is suggesting that Omicron completely evades immunity from prior infection. We know that not to be true. RP is a moron and he's making things up to support his pro-lockdown forever view. I know he says otherwise but every post he makes is filled with the same bullshit zero COVID rhetoric from last year.
Yes the notion that prior infection provides zero protection against Omicron has to be the most absurd hysterical nonsense of this entire pandemic.
And he's inventing it because he wants to prove prior infections were a bad idea, not a good thing.
Either no intellectual honesty, or a complete moron.
And you can of course show where I said zero protection lol
Seriously, you need to decide which of you and Max are Hale and which is Pace. You're both hilarious this afternoon.
"And Omicron cares not whether you had a previous variant"
Literally right here you fool.
Wow. Because that is absolutely me saying "no protection" isn't it. Very very few people seemed to get Delta twice. But suddenly here we are in a panic trying to get needles into everyone's arms in 3 weeks because everyone is in the firing line for Omicron.
I have not said exit Covid. I have not said no protection. or any of the other things that you and Pace have been saying. I have pointed out that the significant dropping away of infection that was in that "exit wave" LSHTM report that you linked to hasn't happened. Nor has the sustained heavy rate of infection of all these other variants created natural immunity to Omicron.
You really need to chill. This is bad enough without you giving yourself conniptions. And in an argument with me as if my view has any more merit than yours or Philip's. Unless one of us is a leading virologist with access to the data model we're all pissing in the wind guessing. And I keep saying I am not in a position to predict this...
Err you said Omicron doesn't care if you have had COVID before. Either provide evidence for that claim or retract it.
I thought I just had. The dominant strain is now going to be Omicron. Where our existing defences are no longer enough. So we all need a 3rd jab whether we are "fully vaccinated" or recovered from another variant. The reinfection rate of Omicron if you had delta clearly isn't 0% or 100% as you and Hale keep trying to say it is.
Some unlucky bastards are getting reinfected. They weren't with Delta, and they need a booster despite 2 shots and the previous infection. So it doesn't care if you had Delta as it can hit you again hence the need for a booster.
I think this is only controversial to you and the few others who had been ramping that the failed exit wave now gave us all immunity. Well quite. Hence the panic need for a million boosters a day.
What evidence have you provided, all I see is more made up stats.
"The country will face an “exit wave” of coronavirus infections whenever restrictions are lifted, England’s chief medical officer has said."
DEMONSTRABLY AN ABUSE OF THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
If we had seen cases rise and fall then fine. But we didn't. Cases rose. And with some variations at the top stayed largely the same. We didn't see the dropping away as we exit that wave. Its just stayed high permanently.
We did see them fall.
Because in the first phase schools were closed, in the second the schools were reopened.
Unless you have come to some perverted belief that schools don't affect transmission? Is that your claim now?
Lol
Covid cases 17th May 2,220 (7 day average). Then after we made changes a big spike and the pogoing highs and lows around the new baseline.
When you say "we did see them fall" it was to 25,722, a mere 11.5x higher than the start. And then up and up and up.
You are being so insane now, May was during restrictions, why the hell would it have to fall beneath the figure that is only achievable with restrictions? What an absurd suggestion (!)
Are you so naive and so unwilling to be realistic now that you can't tell the difference between transmission with schools closed and transmission with schools open now?
16 July 47,970.4 13 September 28,540.4
So the 7 day average halved until the schools went back, that's one wave.
You seem to be in utter denial. First you want us to exit the virus, then you want cases to fall below what they were when we were in lockdown. You just clearly haven't grasped the severity of reality have you?
You're getting irate at others because you're in complete denial.
More belly laughs at my end - this is great! Had it dropped to 28k and kept falling then that would have been great! Instead that was the new floor and then we saw an ever-increasing level of new floors. 28k. 33k, now 51k.
You said "We did see them fall. Because in the first phase schools were closed, in the second the schools were reopened." Yes. And then they went up again. And up some more. And some more.
We replaced the 2k cases a day with mask restrictions with a very best 28k a day and then up and up. If an ever-increasing number of cases is us exiting having cases then black truly is white.
Do keep it up, you're as funny as HYUFD foaming on about Toryism.
Why would it keep falling? Schools reopened! Then it became winter.
You are utterly delusional. Had we not had the exit wave we would have seen exponential growth with schools open, no restrictions and winter. To keep levels flat, while circumstances are getting worse, is proof that the wave has happened.
I'm not an expert on waves, but I don't think they're supposed to peak, and then just keep going at the level of the peak indefinitely.
One reason waves in the water form the pattern they do is the ground level is rising which causes the water to rise too.
In the UK since lifting lockdown the ground level for Covid's spread has been rising: Schools reopened, summer ended, winter began. And yet despite the ground level rising, the cases have been flat. Why?
The only reason the cases have been flat despite the higher ground level, is that the prior wave had just happened.
Imagine if it was the other way around, starting in winter with schools open, then going into spring, then summer, then the schools closed over summer holidays - if cases were flat over that, then you'd be confused why.
To have cases flat, while the ground level to boost Covid is getting higher, is proof that the wave had happened, not proof it didn't.
It's proof that the wave isn't over yet, which is proof that the (presumed) prior belief that it would crest and then break was wrong. In short, it is now conclusively proven to be Not a Wave.
Look at it another way: six months ago, was anyone predicting an "exit wave" that got stuck around 50k cases reported per day for months on end, if restrictions lifted?
Waves is funny things. One never knows, the dynamics muight have generatyed a soliton which moves forward as quickly as we do in time: see this ship in a canal 2:30 ON.
I think I understood this. Waves travel through time, meaning that a wave can happen before the event that caused it. I think I could squeeze a paper out of this and it'll make a big splash.
What are they trying to achieve here? I get the it's fun to see the wave sploosh up into a vertical jet at the end, but are they trying to model something? Coastal erosion?
Haven't a clue - one never knows with students. It might be the soliton itself that is the primary interest and the bit at the end of the canal is just to stop it sloshing all over the tarmac. But it could be of relevance to erosion in dead end canals and docks. Experimenting with different shapes - having one wave at a time simplifies analysis I suppose.
I have the sense that you'd be better off opening out the end of a canal into a wide, deep pool. But a spurty V thing could be a cool piece of public art, soaking the occasional unaware passerby.
You can see something very much like a soliton by standing next to the River Severn (or the River Trent) at the right time of day...
Bore!
Yeah, I know. We can't all be Leon.
(It is the train of waves behind the front bore wave that are most soliton like, of course)
Ok, can you explain that? Why is the bore not a soliton?
I have to say in two years "exit the virus" is surely up there among the most stupid things said about it. That there's anyone who believes that is worrying and the government Comms needs to be updated to warn everyone that we're all going to get it and the best way to decrease likelihood of symptoms is to get vaccinated. There is no other game in town.
I agree! So why do you keep saying we had an exit wave?
Because we did? Immunity and vaccine coverage in the UK is the highest in the world. Despite all of the doom rhetoric from the scientists we're not in any lockdown while most of Europe has got severe restrictions on going anywhere. Omicron may change the game, it may not. But in the summer to now 11-13m people got the virus, 70-80% of them unvaccinated by choice. Would you rather they had zero immunity heading into the Omicron wave?
Don't take my word for it Chris Whitty said it in June. It was and remains the right strategy, everyone is going ti get COVID. Lockdowns and NPIs displace infections, but now the vaccine cavalry is already here, last winter it wasn't so displacement of 1000 infections was ~9.5 lives saved. Today displacement of infections will save close to zero lives, anyone who wants to be can get vaccinated. I walked into a pharmacy with my wife yesterday and we both got our boosters.
Again and again, the only game in town is vaccines. Lockdowns will do nothing because the moment we unlock the virus will be back. Infecting all those same idiots who refused the vaccine. Lockdown to save people who refused the vaccine is immoral, better to tell them to die at home.
The reality is that those who are calling for lockdowns are looking for a legislative safety blanket where none exists.
It has been my view throughout that it is not the role of the state to protect people from a virus. Measures to fundamentally restrict the liberties of e.g. children to 'protect' the very elderly and vulnerable are not IMO morally justified at the current CFR. Excessive safetyism is not a road I want the state to go down.
I am very proud to see so many Tory 'rebel' MPs standing up for liberty today. I would vote exactly the same way.
So I read, I am a foaming lockdown forever advocate. And yet I said days ago I would also vote against. We need measures to sustain businesses who get screwed by the shutdown being caused by Omicron running rampant. Not half-measures and excuses.
We need to see MPs back reviewing the latest data and proposals as they come out - instead Javid is proposing another enabling act where Peppa will rule by decree through the Christmas recess.
Unacceptable.
Or let those of us who want to continue as is, continue.
I'm in my early 30s. As are most of my mates. All of us just want to crack on.
Could you make it any more obvious you think you're invulnerable and you couldn't give a damn about anyone else?
@Chris, I'm in my late 20s so liable to piss you off even more than Mortimer.
The disease appears to be even less dangerous to us than it was before. We've got vaxxed even when it was probably not in our personal interest to do so.
Uni/college students and school pupils have missed out on the education that we all got. And people my age haven't travelled, met partners etc for nearly two years.
Do you give a damn about anyone else?
Not about people who are so self-obsessed that they're willing to put a higher priority on travel, "meeting partners" and respecting their anti-vaccine fantasies than on giving a toss whether other people die or not.
It's not that I think I'm particularly at risk myself. I don't have any particular risk factors and I've had a booster. It's just that people like you turn my stomach with your grotesque selfishness.
Ummm, other than @rural_voter, who has "anti-vaccine fantasies" on here?
The bloke I was replying to, in the post I was replying to, when he said "even when it was probably not in our personal interest to do so [get vaccinated, even though he was in his 20s]".
Recommendation: Don't spout crap, unless you can be bothered to read what you're spouting about (or unless this site is now an anti-vaccination propaganda outlet).
Don't spout crap
Would you like to me to compare your forecasts for Covid cases in the UK with mine? And then we can talk about who has been talking crap.
What? You don't think someone saying it wasn't in their interest to get vaccinated because they were in their 20s is anti-vaccine drivel? Astonishing.
As for forecasts, I've made none. I've occasionally pointed out what would obviously happen under certain assumptions, which anyone numerate had the ability to check.
If you fancy yourself Nostradamus, that particular delusion is not my problem.
Um, what @Endillion said, admittedly after this but the info was available to you all the time. Are the JCVI anti vaccine fantasists? How embarrassing is it, 1-10, being you?
Of course the JVCI has never said vaccination represented a higher risk than non-vaccination to those in their 20s, even viewed from the purely selfish perspective.
Unbelievable that people are still pushing the anti-vaccine crap, even in the situation we're in now. Even more unbelievable that it's actually being supported by RCS.
Nobody is pushing an anti-vaccine argument, you numptoid wazzock. That is just not a thing which has happened. you are tilting at windmills, you are going into paroxysms over the safety of people who are a lot less obsessed with it than you are, and you think "meeting partners" is such an outlandish aspiration it needs putting in scare quotes. Odd person.
The "meeting partners" was where @Chris gave himself away as being a troll. A very good one because that degree of humourlessness begs to be taken seriously. But he over-egged it with the partners thing so blew his cover.
Cracking effort though.
I think because I saw through it he is not responding to me any more. Which is a shame. A great value poster.
Anybody on here who thinks they are Nailed On has a golden chance to clean up.
Thanks, time for me to get involved with a little orange in Shropshire to go with my big orange for the White House.
Go for it! 2 losers, I think, but my money's only down on the 2nd one. I'm No Bet on the by-election. In accordance my new wussy 'Rainbow Coalition' political identity I'm rooting for them Lib Dems to win the seat.
The London chart I just saw on twitter doesn't really look as if though it implies delta replacement to me, more co-circulation. But very early days for the big O.
Does anyone have a précis of the Omicron situation in the United States?
Given the high level of unvaccinated out there it's going to cause carnage isn't it?
Since the orange one left office, our media has stopped reporting on COVID in the US&A.
If anything some of the states are becoming more idiotically opposed to taking action agains the coronavirus since Trump left. Their leaders see to see it as taking a stand against Biden and the Democrats by allowing many more of those they represent to die in the name of "freedom".
18 months. What do we think? I'm not sure why the driver wasn't prosecuted for attempted murder.
They don't like prosecuting drivers for that sort of general offence. This was Causing Serious Injury by Dangerous Driving, which has a max sentence of 5 years.
I'd say that 3-3.5 years would be more like it for the physical and psychological injuries caused and the behaviour displayed, and that "moment of madness" is a crappy defence when calmness and focus is the most important factor for anyone driving any car on a public road. The initial collision was caused by a third party obstructing the cyclist.
Quite ironic that he is bang to rights due to his own dashcam.
I'm not sure if GBH level harm (which is how it is defined) is enough to come under the Unduly Lenient Sentencing review scheme, but someone may refer it. But the list of offences for that is tilted towards the sexual.
I have to say in two years "exit the virus" is surely up there among the most stupid things said about it. That there's anyone who believes that is worrying and the government Comms needs to be updated to warn everyone that we're all going to get it and the best way to decrease likelihood of symptoms is to get vaccinated. There is no other game in town.
I agree! So why do you keep saying we had an exit wave?
Because we did? Immunity and vaccine coverage in the UK is the highest in the world. Despite all of the doom rhetoric from the scientists we're not in any lockdown while most of Europe has got severe restrictions on going anywhere. Omicron may change the game, it may not. But in the summer to now 11-13m people got the virus, 70-80% of them unvaccinated by choice. Would you rather they had zero immunity heading into the Omicron wave?
Don't take my word for it Chris Whitty said it in June. It was and remains the right strategy, everyone is going ti get COVID. Lockdowns and NPIs displace infections, but now the vaccine cavalry is already here, last winter it wasn't so displacement of 1000 infections was ~9.5 lives saved. Today displacement of infections will save close to zero lives, anyone who wants to be can get vaccinated. I walked into a pharmacy with my wife yesterday and we both got our boosters.
Again and again, the only game in town is vaccines. Lockdowns will do nothing because the moment we unlock the virus will be back. Infecting all those same idiots who refused the vaccine. Lockdown to save people who refused the vaccine is immoral, better to tell them to die at home.
The reality is that those who are calling for lockdowns are looking for a legislative safety blanket where none exists.
It has been my view throughout that it is not the role of the state to protect people from a virus. Measures to fundamentally restrict the liberties of e.g. children to 'protect' the very elderly and vulnerable are not IMO morally justified at the current CFR. Excessive safetyism is not a road I want the state to go down.
I am very proud to see so many Tory 'rebel' MPs standing up for liberty today. I would vote exactly the same way.
So I read, I am a foaming lockdown forever advocate. And yet I said days ago I would also vote against. We need measures to sustain businesses who get screwed by the shutdown being caused by Omicron running rampant. Not half-measures and excuses.
We need to see MPs back reviewing the latest data and proposals as they come out - instead Javid is proposing another enabling act where Peppa will rule by decree through the Christmas recess.
Unacceptable.
Or let those of us who want to continue as is, continue.
I'm in my early 30s. As are most of my mates. All of us just want to crack on.
Could you make it any more obvious you think you're invulnerable and you couldn't give a damn about anyone else?
@Chris, I'm in my late 20s so liable to piss you off even more than Mortimer.
The disease appears to be even less dangerous to us than it was before. We've got vaxxed even when it was probably not in our personal interest to do so.
Uni/college students and school pupils have missed out on the education that we all got. And people my age haven't travelled, met partners etc for nearly two years.
Do you give a damn about anyone else?
Not about people who are so self-obsessed that they're willing to put a higher priority on travel, "meeting partners" and respecting their anti-vaccine fantasies than on giving a toss whether other people die or not.
It's not that I think I'm particularly at risk myself. I don't have any particular risk factors and I've had a booster. It's just that people like you turn my stomach with your grotesque selfishness.
Ummm, other than @rural_voter, who has "anti-vaccine fantasies" on here?
The bloke I was replying to, in the post I was replying to, when he said "even when it was probably not in our personal interest to do so [get vaccinated, even though he was in his 20s]".
Recommendation: Don't spout crap, unless you can be bothered to read what you're spouting about (or unless this site is now an anti-vaccination propaganda outlet).
Don't spout crap
Would you like to me to compare your forecasts for Covid cases in the UK with mine? And then we can talk about who has been talking crap.
What? You don't think someone saying it wasn't in their interest to get vaccinated because they were in their 20s is anti-vaccine drivel? Astonishing.
As for forecasts, I've made none. I've occasionally pointed out what would obviously happen under certain assumptions, which anyone numerate had the ability to check.
If you fancy yourself Nostradamus, that particular delusion is not my problem.
"I've occasionally pointed out what would obviously happen under certain assumptions, which anyone numerate had the ability to check."
So, you're not taking responsibility for your regular predictions of doom and disaster?
"The country will face an “exit wave” of coronavirus infections whenever restrictions are lifted, England’s chief medical officer has said."
DEMONSTRABLY AN ABUSE OF THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
If we had seen cases rise and fall then fine. But we didn't. Cases rose. And with some variations at the top stayed largely the same. We didn't see the dropping away as we exit that wave. Its just stayed high permanently.
We did see them fall.
Because in the first phase schools were closed, in the second the schools were reopened.
Unless you have come to some perverted belief that schools don't affect transmission? Is that your claim now?
Lol
Covid cases 17th May 2,220 (7 day average). Then after we made changes a big spike and the pogoing highs and lows around the new baseline.
When you say "we did see them fall" it was to 25,722, a mere 11.5x higher than the start. And then up and up and up.
You are being so insane now, May was during restrictions, why the hell would it have to fall beneath the figure that is only achievable with restrictions? What an absurd suggestion (!)
Are you so naive and so unwilling to be realistic now that you can't tell the difference between transmission with schools closed and transmission with schools open now?
16 July 47,970.4 13 September 28,540.4
So the 7 day average halved until the schools went back, that's one wave.
You seem to be in utter denial. First you want us to exit the virus, then you want cases to fall below what they were when we were in lockdown. You just clearly haven't grasped the severity of reality have you?
You're getting irate at others because you're in complete denial.
More belly laughs at my end - this is great! Had it dropped to 28k and kept falling then that would have been great! Instead that was the new floor and then we saw an ever-increasing level of new floors. 28k. 33k, now 51k.
You said "We did see them fall. Because in the first phase schools were closed, in the second the schools were reopened." Yes. And then they went up again. And up some more. And some more.
We replaced the 2k cases a day with mask restrictions with a very best 28k a day and then up and up. If an ever-increasing number of cases is us exiting having cases then black truly is white.
Do keep it up, you're as funny as HYUFD foaming on about Toryism.
Why would it keep falling? Schools reopened! Then it became winter.
You are utterly delusional. Had we not had the exit wave we would have seen exponential growth with schools open, no restrictions and winter. To keep levels flat, while circumstances are getting worse, is proof that the wave has happened.
I'm not an expert on waves, but I don't think they're supposed to peak, and then just keep going at the level of the peak indefinitely.
One reason waves in the water form the pattern they do is the ground level is rising which causes the water to rise too.
In the UK since lifting lockdown the ground level for Covid's spread has been rising: Schools reopened, summer ended, winter began. And yet despite the ground level rising, the cases have been flat. Why?
The only reason the cases have been flat despite the higher ground level, is that the prior wave had just happened.
Imagine if it was the other way around, starting in winter with schools open, then going into spring, then summer, then the schools closed over summer holidays - if cases were flat over that, then you'd be confused why.
To have cases flat, while the ground level to boost Covid is getting higher, is proof that the wave had happened, not proof it didn't.
It's proof that the wave isn't over yet, which is proof that the (presumed) prior belief that it would crest and then break was wrong. In short, it is now conclusively proven to be Not a Wave.
Look at it another way: six months ago, was anyone predicting an "exit wave" that got stuck around 50k cases reported per day for months on end, if restrictions lifted?
Waves is funny things. One never knows, the dynamics muight have generatyed a soliton which moves forward as quickly as we do in time: see this ship in a canal 2:30 ON.
I think I understood this. Waves travel through time, meaning that a wave can happen before the event that caused it. I think I could squeeze a paper out of this and it'll make a big splash.
What are they trying to achieve here? I get the it's fun to see the wave sploosh up into a vertical jet at the end, but are they trying to model something? Coastal erosion?
Haven't a clue - one never knows with students. It might be the soliton itself that is the primary interest and the bit at the end of the canal is just to stop it sloshing all over the tarmac. But it could be of relevance to erosion in dead end canals and docks. Experimenting with different shapes - having one wave at a time simplifies analysis I suppose.
I have the sense that you'd be better off opening out the end of a canal into a wide, deep pool. But a spurty V thing could be a cool piece of public art, soaking the occasional unaware passerby.
You can see something very much like a soliton by standing next to the River Severn (or the River Trent) at the right time of day...
My got feeling was that it's a shock wave because the wave is coming too fast for a surface wave in the ambient conditions (a 2-D version of a supersonic jet's shock wave in 3-D). And that does seem to be the case.
"Being the onset of the flood tide, the bore is accompanied by a rapid rise in water level which continues for about one and a half hours after the bore has passed. The Severn bore is not a self-reinforcing solitary wave or soliton but rather a shock wave which is formed because the wave is travelling faster than the wave speed in water above the bore (see tidal bore for more details). The passing of the bore causes a churning of the water, and the myriads of tiny bubbles popping contributes much of the roaring sound made by the bore.[4] The largest recorded bore was on 15 October 1966, when it reached a height of 2.8 m (9.2 ft) at Stonebench.[7]"
But it is amazingly impressive - though the usuial surfers have colonised it. Nice calming video to watch.
As posted on here, I took a large position on cons at 2/1 on Friday night.
Must be due to Davey testing positive for Covid...
Yeah - LDs are all at sea now it turns out that they're led by a human that appears lemon like, rather than an actual lemon - the latter is of course what everyone had histerto assumed with Davey.
The London chart I just saw on twitter doesn't really look as if though it implies delta replacement to me, more co-circulation. But very early days for the big O.
Don't forget folks, the infections number is the government measure that counts first infections only. And Omicron cares not whether you had a previous variant.
Moron.
Really - we laughed when Robert Peston made the comment a while back but I don't think the methodology has changed.
No the moronic bit is suggesting that Omicron completely evades immunity from prior infection. We know that not to be true. RP is a moron and he's making things up to support his pro-lockdown forever view. I know he says otherwise but every post he makes is filled with the same bullshit zero COVID rhetoric from last year.
Yes the notion that prior infection provides zero protection against Omicron has to be the most absurd hysterical nonsense of this entire pandemic.
And he's inventing it because he wants to prove prior infections were a bad idea, not a good thing.
Either no intellectual honesty, or a complete moron.
And you can of course show where I said zero protection lol
Seriously, you need to decide which of you and Max are Hale and which is Pace. You're both hilarious this afternoon.
"And Omicron cares not whether you had a previous variant"
Literally right here you fool.
Wow. Because that is absolutely me saying "no protection" isn't it. Very very few people seemed to get Delta twice. But suddenly here we are in a panic trying to get needles into everyone's arms in 3 weeks because everyone is in the firing line for Omicron.
I have not said exit Covid. I have not said no protection. or any of the other things that you and Pace have been saying. I have pointed out that the significant dropping away of infection that was in that "exit wave" LSHTM report that you linked to hasn't happened. Nor has the sustained heavy rate of infection of all these other variants created natural immunity to Omicron.
You really need to chill. This is bad enough without you giving yourself conniptions. And in an argument with me as if my view has any more merit than yours or Philip's. Unless one of us is a leading virologist with access to the data model we're all pissing in the wind guessing. And I keep saying I am not in a position to predict this...
Err you said Omicron doesn't care if you have had COVID before. Either provide evidence for that claim or retract it.
I thought I just had. The dominant strain is now going to be Omicron. Where our existing defences are no longer enough. So we all need a 3rd jab whether we are "fully vaccinated" or recovered from another variant. The reinfection rate of Omicron if you had delta clearly isn't 0% or 100% as you and Hale keep trying to say it is.
Some unlucky bastards are getting reinfected. They weren't with Delta, and they need a booster despite 2 shots and the previous infection. So it doesn't care if you had Delta as it can hit you again hence the need for a booster.
I think this is only controversial to you and the few others who had been ramping that the failed exit wave now gave us all immunity. Well quite. Hence the panic need for a million boosters a day.
What evidence have you provided, all I see is more made up stats.
You said "it cares not" how is that not saying 0%?
Even if it was 1% protection it would, though it's coming in at about ~90% vs Delta at ~95% for symptomatic infection. Once again, explain to me how that is anything like "it cares not". It does, it cares a lot. In fact the 8-10m who got natural immunity over the summer and autumn will now possibly present 80-100k hospitalisations from reinfection rather than 400k-600k among people with no immunity. That's the reality you want to avoid seeing, yet it's still true.
Does anyone have a précis of the Omicron situation in the United States?
Given the high level of unvaccinated out there it's going to cause carnage isn't it?
Since the orange one left office, our media has stopped reporting on COVID in the US&A.
If anything some of the states are becoming more idiotically opposed to taking action agains the coronavirus since Trump left. Their leaders see to see it as taking a stand against Biden and the Democrats by allowing many more of those they represent to die in the name of "freedom".
"The country will face an “exit wave” of coronavirus infections whenever restrictions are lifted, England’s chief medical officer has said."
DEMONSTRABLY AN ABUSE OF THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
If we had seen cases rise and fall then fine. But we didn't. Cases rose. And with some variations at the top stayed largely the same. We didn't see the dropping away as we exit that wave. Its just stayed high permanently.
We did see them fall.
Because in the first phase schools were closed, in the second the schools were reopened.
Unless you have come to some perverted belief that schools don't affect transmission? Is that your claim now?
Lol
Covid cases 17th May 2,220 (7 day average). Then after we made changes a big spike and the pogoing highs and lows around the new baseline.
When you say "we did see them fall" it was to 25,722, a mere 11.5x higher than the start. And then up and up and up.
You are being so insane now, May was during restrictions, why the hell would it have to fall beneath the figure that is only achievable with restrictions? What an absurd suggestion (!)
Are you so naive and so unwilling to be realistic now that you can't tell the difference between transmission with schools closed and transmission with schools open now?
16 July 47,970.4 13 September 28,540.4
So the 7 day average halved until the schools went back, that's one wave.
You seem to be in utter denial. First you want us to exit the virus, then you want cases to fall below what they were when we were in lockdown. You just clearly haven't grasped the severity of reality have you?
You're getting irate at others because you're in complete denial.
More belly laughs at my end - this is great! Had it dropped to 28k and kept falling then that would have been great! Instead that was the new floor and then we saw an ever-increasing level of new floors. 28k. 33k, now 51k.
You said "We did see them fall. Because in the first phase schools were closed, in the second the schools were reopened." Yes. And then they went up again. And up some more. And some more.
We replaced the 2k cases a day with mask restrictions with a very best 28k a day and then up and up. If an ever-increasing number of cases is us exiting having cases then black truly is white.
Do keep it up, you're as funny as HYUFD foaming on about Toryism.
Why would it keep falling? Schools reopened! Then it became winter.
You are utterly delusional. Had we not had the exit wave we would have seen exponential growth with schools open, no restrictions and winter. To keep levels flat, while circumstances are getting worse, is proof that the wave has happened.
I'm not an expert on waves, but I don't think they're supposed to peak, and then just keep going at the level of the peak indefinitely.
One reason waves in the water form the pattern they do is the ground level is rising which causes the water to rise too.
In the UK since lifting lockdown the ground level for Covid's spread has been rising: Schools reopened, summer ended, winter began. And yet despite the ground level rising, the cases have been flat. Why?
The only reason the cases have been flat despite the higher ground level, is that the prior wave had just happened.
Imagine if it was the other way around, starting in winter with schools open, then going into spring, then summer, then the schools closed over summer holidays - if cases were flat over that, then you'd be confused why.
To have cases flat, while the ground level to boost Covid is getting higher, is proof that the wave had happened, not proof it didn't.
It's proof that the wave isn't over yet, which is proof that the (presumed) prior belief that it would crest and then break was wrong. In short, it is now conclusively proven to be Not a Wave.
Look at it another way: six months ago, was anyone predicting an "exit wave" that got stuck around 50k cases reported per day for months on end, if restrictions lifted?
Waves is funny things. One never knows, the dynamics muight have generatyed a soliton which moves forward as quickly as we do in time: see this ship in a canal 2:30 ON.
I think I understood this. Waves travel through time, meaning that a wave can happen before the event that caused it. I think I could squeeze a paper out of this and it'll make a big splash.
What are they trying to achieve here? I get the it's fun to see the wave sploosh up into a vertical jet at the end, but are they trying to model something? Coastal erosion?
Haven't a clue - one never knows with students. It might be the soliton itself that is the primary interest and the bit at the end of the canal is just to stop it sloshing all over the tarmac. But it could be of relevance to erosion in dead end canals and docks. Experimenting with different shapes - having one wave at a time simplifies analysis I suppose.
I have the sense that you'd be better off opening out the end of a canal into a wide, deep pool. But a spurty V thing could be a cool piece of public art, soaking the occasional unaware passerby.
You can see something very much like a soliton by standing next to the River Severn (or the River Trent) at the right time of day...
Bore!
Yeah, I know. We can't all be Leon.
(It is the train of waves behind the front bore wave that are most soliton like, of course)
Ok, can you explain that? Why is the bore not a soliton?
I must admit that the waves behind the shock front itself do look awfully solitony here (about 50 sec on in particular)
18 months. What do we think? I'm not sure why the driver wasn't prosecuted for attempted murder.
They don't like prosecuting drivers for that sort of general offence. This was Causing Serious Injury by Dangerous Driving, which has a max sentence of 5 years.
I'd say that 3-3.5 years would be more like it for the physical and psychological injuries caused and the behaviour displayed, and that "moment of madness" is a crappy defence when calmness and focus is the most important factor for anyone driving any car on a public road. The initial collision was caused by a third party obstructing the cyclist.
Quite ironic that he is bang to rights due to his own dashcam.
I'm not sure if GBH level harm (which is how it is defined) is enough to come under the Unduly Lenient Sentencing review scheme, but someone may refer it. But the list of offences for that is tilted towards the sexual.
"The country will face an “exit wave” of coronavirus infections whenever restrictions are lifted, England’s chief medical officer has said."
DEMONSTRABLY AN ABUSE OF THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
If we had seen cases rise and fall then fine. But we didn't. Cases rose. And with some variations at the top stayed largely the same. We didn't see the dropping away as we exit that wave. Its just stayed high permanently.
We did see them fall.
Because in the first phase schools were closed, in the second the schools were reopened.
Unless you have come to some perverted belief that schools don't affect transmission? Is that your claim now?
Lol
Covid cases 17th May 2,220 (7 day average). Then after we made changes a big spike and the pogoing highs and lows around the new baseline.
When you say "we did see them fall" it was to 25,722, a mere 11.5x higher than the start. And then up and up and up.
You are being so insane now, May was during restrictions, why the hell would it have to fall beneath the figure that is only achievable with restrictions? What an absurd suggestion (!)
Are you so naive and so unwilling to be realistic now that you can't tell the difference between transmission with schools closed and transmission with schools open now?
16 July 47,970.4 13 September 28,540.4
So the 7 day average halved until the schools went back, that's one wave.
You seem to be in utter denial. First you want us to exit the virus, then you want cases to fall below what they were when we were in lockdown. You just clearly haven't grasped the severity of reality have you?
You're getting irate at others because you're in complete denial.
More belly laughs at my end - this is great! Had it dropped to 28k and kept falling then that would have been great! Instead that was the new floor and then we saw an ever-increasing level of new floors. 28k. 33k, now 51k.
You said "We did see them fall. Because in the first phase schools were closed, in the second the schools were reopened." Yes. And then they went up again. And up some more. And some more.
We replaced the 2k cases a day with mask restrictions with a very best 28k a day and then up and up. If an ever-increasing number of cases is us exiting having cases then black truly is white.
Do keep it up, you're as funny as HYUFD foaming on about Toryism.
Why would it keep falling? Schools reopened! Then it became winter.
You are utterly delusional. Had we not had the exit wave we would have seen exponential growth with schools open, no restrictions and winter. To keep levels flat, while circumstances are getting worse, is proof that the wave has happened.
I'm not an expert on waves, but I don't think they're supposed to peak, and then just keep going at the level of the peak indefinitely.
One reason waves in the water form the pattern they do is the ground level is rising which causes the water to rise too.
In the UK since lifting lockdown the ground level for Covid's spread has been rising: Schools reopened, summer ended, winter began. And yet despite the ground level rising, the cases have been flat. Why?
The only reason the cases have been flat despite the higher ground level, is that the prior wave had just happened.
Imagine if it was the other way around, starting in winter with schools open, then going into spring, then summer, then the schools closed over summer holidays - if cases were flat over that, then you'd be confused why.
To have cases flat, while the ground level to boost Covid is getting higher, is proof that the wave had happened, not proof it didn't.
It's proof that the wave isn't over yet, which is proof that the (presumed) prior belief that it would crest and then break was wrong. In short, it is now conclusively proven to be Not a Wave.
Look at it another way: six months ago, was anyone predicting an "exit wave" that got stuck around 50k cases reported per day for months on end, if restrictions lifted?
Waves is funny things. One never knows, the dynamics muight have generatyed a soliton which moves forward as quickly as we do in time: see this ship in a canal 2:30 ON.
I think I understood this. Waves travel through time, meaning that a wave can happen before the event that caused it. I think I could squeeze a paper out of this and it'll make a big splash.
What are they trying to achieve here? I get the it's fun to see the wave sploosh up into a vertical jet at the end, but are they trying to model something? Coastal erosion?
Haven't a clue - one never knows with students. It might be the soliton itself that is the primary interest and the bit at the end of the canal is just to stop it sloshing all over the tarmac. But it could be of relevance to erosion in dead end canals and docks. Experimenting with different shapes - having one wave at a time simplifies analysis I suppose.
I have the sense that you'd be better off opening out the end of a canal into a wide, deep pool. But a spurty V thing could be a cool piece of public art, soaking the occasional unaware passerby.
You can see something very much like a soliton by standing next to the River Severn (or the River Trent) at the right time of day...
Bore!
Yeah, I know. We can't all be Leon.
(It is the train of waves behind the front bore wave that are most soliton like, of course)
Ok, can you explain that? Why is the bore not a soliton?
I believe the front wave is essentially a shock wave / hydraulic jump. The level of the river behind the bore front is much higher.
I have to say in two years "exit the virus" is surely up there among the most stupid things said about it. That there's anyone who believes that is worrying and the government Comms needs to be updated to warn everyone that we're all going to get it and the best way to decrease likelihood of symptoms is to get vaccinated. There is no other game in town.
I agree! So why do you keep saying we had an exit wave?
Because we did? Immunity and vaccine coverage in the UK is the highest in the world. Despite all of the doom rhetoric from the scientists we're not in any lockdown while most of Europe has got severe restrictions on going anywhere. Omicron may change the game, it may not. But in the summer to now 11-13m people got the virus, 70-80% of them unvaccinated by choice. Would you rather they had zero immunity heading into the Omicron wave?
Don't take my word for it Chris Whitty said it in June. It was and remains the right strategy, everyone is going ti get COVID. Lockdowns and NPIs displace infections, but now the vaccine cavalry is already here, last winter it wasn't so displacement of 1000 infections was ~9.5 lives saved. Today displacement of infections will save close to zero lives, anyone who wants to be can get vaccinated. I walked into a pharmacy with my wife yesterday and we both got our boosters.
Again and again, the only game in town is vaccines. Lockdowns will do nothing because the moment we unlock the virus will be back. Infecting all those same idiots who refused the vaccine. Lockdown to save people who refused the vaccine is immoral, better to tell them to die at home.
The reality is that those who are calling for lockdowns are looking for a legislative safety blanket where none exists.
It has been my view throughout that it is not the role of the state to protect people from a virus. Measures to fundamentally restrict the liberties of e.g. children to 'protect' the very elderly and vulnerable are not IMO morally justified at the current CFR. Excessive safetyism is not a road I want the state to go down.
I am very proud to see so many Tory 'rebel' MPs standing up for liberty today. I would vote exactly the same way.
So I read, I am a foaming lockdown forever advocate. And yet I said days ago I would also vote against. We need measures to sustain businesses who get screwed by the shutdown being caused by Omicron running rampant. Not half-measures and excuses.
We need to see MPs back reviewing the latest data and proposals as they come out - instead Javid is proposing another enabling act where Peppa will rule by decree through the Christmas recess.
Unacceptable.
Or let those of us who want to continue as is, continue.
I'm in my early 30s. As are most of my mates. All of us just want to crack on.
Could you make it any more obvious you think you're invulnerable and you couldn't give a damn about anyone else?
@Chris, I'm in my late 20s so liable to piss you off even more than Mortimer.
The disease appears to be even less dangerous to us than it was before. We've got vaxxed even when it was probably not in our personal interest to do so.
Uni/college students and school pupils have missed out on the education that we all got. And people my age haven't travelled, met partners etc for nearly two years.
Do you give a damn about anyone else?
Not about people who are so self-obsessed that they're willing to put a higher priority on travel, "meeting partners" and respecting their anti-vaccine fantasies than on giving a toss whether other people die or not.
It's not that I think I'm particularly at risk myself. I don't have any particular risk factors and I've had a booster. It's just that people like you turn my stomach with your grotesque selfishness.
Ummm, other than @rural_voter, who has "anti-vaccine fantasies" on here?
The bloke I was replying to, in the post I was replying to, when he said "even when it was probably not in our personal interest to do so [get vaccinated, even though he was in his 20s]".
Recommendation: Don't spout crap, unless you can be bothered to read what you're spouting about (or unless this site is now an anti-vaccination propaganda outlet).
Don't spout crap
Would you like to me to compare your forecasts for Covid cases in the UK with mine? And then we can talk about who has been talking crap.
What? You don't think someone saying it wasn't in their interest to get vaccinated because they were in their 20s is anti-vaccine drivel? Astonishing.
As for forecasts, I've made none. I've occasionally pointed out what would obviously happen under certain assumptions, which anyone numerate had the ability to check.
If you fancy yourself Nostradamus, that particular delusion is not my problem.
Um, what @Endillion said, admittedly after this but the info was available to you all the time. Are the JCVI anti vaccine fantasists? How embarrassing is it, 1-10, being you?
Of course the JVCI has never said vaccination represented a higher risk than non-vaccination to those in their 20s, even viewed from the purely selfish perspective.
Unbelievable that people are still pushing the anti-vaccine crap, even in the situation we're in now. Even more unbelievable that it's actually being supported by RCS.
Nobody is pushing an anti-vaccine argument, you numptoid wazzock.
Again. In simple words.
I was responding to someone who said it was more risky to be vaccinated than not. Because he was in his 20s.
Are you too stupid to understand that that is an anti-vaccine argument? And totally fallacious?
Eabhal said "We've got vaxxed even when it was probably not in our personal interest to do so."
Now, on balance I disagree, but it's not clearcut. The risk of a bad outcome from the vaccine (let's exclude AZN as Eabhal unlikely offered that) was lower than the risk of bad outcome from Covid, even at low incidence in the summer, although perhaps not orders of magnitude difference depending on future events.
But, some unpleasant side effects from the vaccine were quite common - moreso in younger people, it seemed. For most younger people, Covid was not a big deal (it was, of course, for some). So, "in personal interest"? It's at least open to debate and depends on values put on various things - high likelihood of a few shitty days in the middle of summer versus an uncertain risk (at the time) of even getting exposed to Covid. Even I (late 30s) got vaccinated more for protection of others and to try and ensure we could lose the restrictions by pushing towards herd immunity than due to particular risk to myself from Covid, although I would say it was also in my interests.
He got vaccinated, presumably - from the stated view of "not in our personal interest" - to protect others. That's hardly antivax.
I have to say in two years "exit the virus" is surely up there among the most stupid things said about it. That there's anyone who believes that is worrying and the government Comms needs to be updated to warn everyone that we're all going to get it and the best way to decrease likelihood of symptoms is to get vaccinated. There is no other game in town.
I agree! So why do you keep saying we had an exit wave?
Because we did? Immunity and vaccine coverage in the UK is the highest in the world. Despite all of the doom rhetoric from the scientists we're not in any lockdown while most of Europe has got severe restrictions on going anywhere. Omicron may change the game, it may not. But in the summer to now 11-13m people got the virus, 70-80% of them unvaccinated by choice. Would you rather they had zero immunity heading into the Omicron wave?
Don't take my word for it Chris Whitty said it in June. It was and remains the right strategy, everyone is going ti get COVID. Lockdowns and NPIs displace infections, but now the vaccine cavalry is already here, last winter it wasn't so displacement of 1000 infections was ~9.5 lives saved. Today displacement of infections will save close to zero lives, anyone who wants to be can get vaccinated. I walked into a pharmacy with my wife yesterday and we both got our boosters.
Again and again, the only game in town is vaccines. Lockdowns will do nothing because the moment we unlock the virus will be back. Infecting all those same idiots who refused the vaccine. Lockdown to save people who refused the vaccine is immoral, better to tell them to die at home.
The reality is that those who are calling for lockdowns are looking for a legislative safety blanket where none exists.
It has been my view throughout that it is not the role of the state to protect people from a virus. Measures to fundamentally restrict the liberties of e.g. children to 'protect' the very elderly and vulnerable are not IMO morally justified at the current CFR. Excessive safetyism is not a road I want the state to go down.
I am very proud to see so many Tory 'rebel' MPs standing up for liberty today. I would vote exactly the same way.
So I read, I am a foaming lockdown forever advocate. And yet I said days ago I would also vote against. We need measures to sustain businesses who get screwed by the shutdown being caused by Omicron running rampant. Not half-measures and excuses.
We need to see MPs back reviewing the latest data and proposals as they come out - instead Javid is proposing another enabling act where Peppa will rule by decree through the Christmas recess.
Unacceptable.
Or let those of us who want to continue as is, continue.
I'm in my early 30s. As are most of my mates. All of us just want to crack on.
Could you make it any more obvious you think you're invulnerable and you couldn't give a damn about anyone else?
@Chris, I'm in my late 20s so liable to piss you off even more than Mortimer.
The disease appears to be even less dangerous to us than it was before. We've got vaxxed even when it was probably not in our personal interest to do so.
Uni/college students and school pupils have missed out on the education that we all got. And people my age haven't travelled, met partners etc for nearly two years.
Do you give a damn about anyone else?
Not about people who are so self-obsessed that they're willing to put a higher priority on travel, "meeting partners" and respecting their anti-vaccine fantasies than on giving a toss whether other people die or not.
It's not that I think I'm particularly at risk myself. I don't have any particular risk factors and I've had a booster. It's just that people like you turn my stomach with your grotesque selfishness.
Ummm, other than @rural_voter, who has "anti-vaccine fantasies" on here?
The bloke I was replying to, in the post I was replying to, when he said "even when it was probably not in our personal interest to do so [get vaccinated, even though he was in his 20s]".
Recommendation: Don't spout crap, unless you can be bothered to read what you're spouting about (or unless this site is now an anti-vaccination propaganda outlet).
Don't spout crap
Would you like to me to compare your forecasts for Covid cases in the UK with mine? And then we can talk about who has been talking crap.
What? You don't think someone saying it wasn't in their interest to get vaccinated because they were in their 20s is anti-vaccine drivel? Astonishing.
As for forecasts, I've made none. I've occasionally pointed out what would obviously happen under certain assumptions, which anyone numerate had the ability to check.
If you fancy yourself Nostradamus, that particular delusion is not my problem.
"I've occasionally pointed out what would obviously happen under certain assumptions, which anyone numerate had the ability to check."
So, you're not taking responsibility for your regular predictions of doom and disaster?
Please read what I said again: I'll put it in bold to help you. I've occasionally pointed out what would obviously happen under certain assumptions, which anyone numerate had the ability to check.
Now. Is it too much to expect that you admit you hadn't read the post I was replying to, and apologise? Or should we really assume you are happy to defend nonsensical anti-vaccine propaganda here?
Sitting in a starlit Balearic garden, looking at my very own Antony Gormley statue. Sipping excellent wine, as frogs croak in the fountains. Global meltdown seems a long way away
I have to say in two years "exit the virus" is surely up there among the most stupid things said about it. That there's anyone who believes that is worrying and the government Comms needs to be updated to warn everyone that we're all going to get it and the best way to decrease likelihood of symptoms is to get vaccinated. There is no other game in town.
I agree! So why do you keep saying we had an exit wave?
Because we did? Immunity and vaccine coverage in the UK is the highest in the world. Despite all of the doom rhetoric from the scientists we're not in any lockdown while most of Europe has got severe restrictions on going anywhere. Omicron may change the game, it may not. But in the summer to now 11-13m people got the virus, 70-80% of them unvaccinated by choice. Would you rather they had zero immunity heading into the Omicron wave?
Don't take my word for it Chris Whitty said it in June. It was and remains the right strategy, everyone is going ti get COVID. Lockdowns and NPIs displace infections, but now the vaccine cavalry is already here, last winter it wasn't so displacement of 1000 infections was ~9.5 lives saved. Today displacement of infections will save close to zero lives, anyone who wants to be can get vaccinated. I walked into a pharmacy with my wife yesterday and we both got our boosters.
Again and again, the only game in town is vaccines. Lockdowns will do nothing because the moment we unlock the virus will be back. Infecting all those same idiots who refused the vaccine. Lockdown to save people who refused the vaccine is immoral, better to tell them to die at home.
The reality is that those who are calling for lockdowns are looking for a legislative safety blanket where none exists.
It has been my view throughout that it is not the role of the state to protect people from a virus. Measures to fundamentally restrict the liberties of e.g. children to 'protect' the very elderly and vulnerable are not IMO morally justified at the current CFR. Excessive safetyism is not a road I want the state to go down.
I am very proud to see so many Tory 'rebel' MPs standing up for liberty today. I would vote exactly the same way.
So I read, I am a foaming lockdown forever advocate. And yet I said days ago I would also vote against. We need measures to sustain businesses who get screwed by the shutdown being caused by Omicron running rampant. Not half-measures and excuses.
We need to see MPs back reviewing the latest data and proposals as they come out - instead Javid is proposing another enabling act where Peppa will rule by decree through the Christmas recess.
Unacceptable.
Or let those of us who want to continue as is, continue.
I'm in my early 30s. As are most of my mates. All of us just want to crack on.
Could you make it any more obvious you think you're invulnerable and you couldn't give a damn about anyone else?
@Chris, I'm in my late 20s so liable to piss you off even more than Mortimer.
The disease appears to be even less dangerous to us than it was before. We've got vaxxed even when it was probably not in our personal interest to do so.
Uni/college students and school pupils have missed out on the education that we all got. And people my age haven't travelled, met partners etc for nearly two years.
Do you give a damn about anyone else?
Not about people who are so self-obsessed that they're willing to put a higher priority on travel, "meeting partners" and respecting their anti-vaccine fantasies than on giving a toss whether other people die or not.
It's not that I think I'm particularly at risk myself. I don't have any particular risk factors and I've had a booster. It's just that people like you turn my stomach with your grotesque selfishness.
Ummm, other than @rural_voter, who has "anti-vaccine fantasies" on here?
The bloke I was replying to, in the post I was replying to, when he said "even when it was probably not in our personal interest to do so [get vaccinated, even though he was in his 20s]".
Recommendation: Don't spout crap, unless you can be bothered to read what you're spouting about (or unless this site is now an anti-vaccination propaganda outlet).
Don't spout crap
Would you like to me to compare your forecasts for Covid cases in the UK with mine? And then we can talk about who has been talking crap.
What? You don't think someone saying it wasn't in their interest to get vaccinated because they were in their 20s is anti-vaccine drivel? Astonishing.
As for forecasts, I've made none. I've occasionally pointed out what would obviously happen under certain assumptions, which anyone numerate had the ability to check.
If you fancy yourself Nostradamus, that particular delusion is not my problem.
Um, what @Endillion said, admittedly after this but the info was available to you all the time. Are the JCVI anti vaccine fantasists? How embarrassing is it, 1-10, being you?
Of course the JVCI has never said vaccination represented a higher risk than non-vaccination to those in their 20s, even viewed from the purely selfish perspective.
Unbelievable that people are still pushing the anti-vaccine crap, even in the situation we're in now. Even more unbelievable that it's actually being supported by RCS.
Nobody is pushing an anti-vaccine argument, you numptoid wazzock. That is just not a thing which has happened. you are tilting at windmills, you are going into paroxysms over the safety of people who are a lot less obsessed with it than you are, and you think "meeting partners" is such an outlandish aspiration it needs putting in scare quotes. Odd person.
Sort of betting he has a comfortable home with plenty of space and lives with his partner and family. Not someone who lives alone in a cramped flat and hasnt been able to go find a date in two years almost or someone like me who hasn't seen their girlfriend in two years as she is afraid to return from australia where her children live because she might not be easily able to return. Typical "lockdown works for me" type.
Don't forget folks, the infections number is the government measure that counts first infections only. And Omicron cares not whether you had a previous variant.
Isn’t that fake news? It has greater reinfections than Delta, but still in low single figures in percentage terms I think.
"Fake news". We know for a fact that the "catch rate" of infections is a percentage of the total. The official number is estimated by them to be c. 40% of the total number of actual infections. And its true that they don't count reinfections.
So even if the reinfection rate is only say 8% higher than Delta, we can do the maths easily. 60k cases today is 40%, so 150k total. And as that number rises the 8% example (if thats correct) propels the gap higher and the % caught in the official figure gets lower.
Either way the 200k that was rounds mocked by some on here the other day sounds like its realistic based on this.
It's ~5%. You've literally made up that 40% figure from thin air.
I'm sure I was quoting from Sajid Javid when he was talking about Omicron. It was the explanation about how they had 50k confirmed cased and believed the true figure to be 200k
It's 4% or so.
The confirmed cases vs real cases issue is that in no country, anywhere, have all the cases been tested. I tried a while back aligning the reported cases numbers with the ONS studies - the ratio of reported to real varied between the various peaks. Which makes so sense - when COVID peaks in the public consciousness, more people will get a test.
Do I spot a potential case of apples & pears 'fog of war' x purposes?
(i) The % uplift you need to apply to reported +ve tests to get total actual estimated cases.
(ii) The reinfection rate % for Omi.
These are different things, aren't they, with (i) being much higher than (ii).
Don't forget folks, the infections number is the government measure that counts first infections only. And Omicron cares not whether you had a previous variant.
Moron.
Really - we laughed when Robert Peston made the comment a while back but I don't think the methodology has changed.
No the moronic bit is suggesting that Omicron completely evades immunity from prior infection. We know that not to be true. RP is a moron and he's making things up to support his pro-lockdown forever view. I know he says otherwise but every post he makes is filled with the same bullshit zero COVID rhetoric from last year.
Yes the notion that prior infection provides zero protection against Omicron has to be the most absurd hysterical nonsense of this entire pandemic.
And he's inventing it because he wants to prove prior infections were a bad idea, not a good thing.
Either no intellectual honesty, or a complete moron.
And you can of course show where I said zero protection lol
Seriously, you need to decide which of you and Max are Hale and which is Pace. You're both hilarious this afternoon.
"Omicron cares not whether you had a previous variant." "we have the same lack of immunity to Omicron"
Omicron does care whether you had a previous variant and past infections is not a lack of immunity, its slightly reduced immunity.
It's actually quite funny how far he's got to dig in now, he's willing the virus on to reinfect people despite evidence that symptomatic reinfection with Omicron is actually pretty low. I guess he'll never be able to admit that going into winter with 8-10m people with some immunity is better than going into the winter with 8-10m people having no immunity.
Oh stop it, its too funny.
As my wife remains properly ill with this I'm hardly likely to willing others to be similarly poorly to win a "battle with you.
Comments
So even if the reinfection rate is only say 8% higher than Delta, we can do the maths easily. 60k cases today is 40%, so 150k total. And as that number rises the 8% example (if thats correct) propels the gap higher and the % caught in the official figure gets lower.
Either way the 200k that was rounds mocked by some on here the other day sounds like its realistic based on this.
Would you like to me to compare your forecasts for Covid cases in the UK with mine? And then we can talk about who has been talking crap.
I was an elected councillor where the mayor / council chair posted on Facebook that I should go back to where I came from and never darken his town again with my forrin genes. I laughed at that, I'm hardly going to be wound up by "moron" comments. It only bites when you respect their opinion.
And he's inventing it because he wants to prove prior infections were a bad idea, not a good thing.
Either no intellectual honesty, or a complete moron.
Jeremy Corbyn just hinted he'll vote against the "totally wrong attempt to force vaccinations and passports on people".
Was in response to Labour MP Rachael Maskell opposing mandatory vaccinations in the NHS, but line about passports suggests his broader opposition
https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1470798733340258312
The sequencing from the 13th is of 10th/11th December.
The S gene target failure (Probable Omicron) is 20.6% with 3,110 new cases.
That means the probable number of Omicron is 48,854 * 20.6% with 10,063 cases.
So we're sequencing ~ 31% (Or a third is near enough close)
Anybody on here who thinks they are Nailed On has a golden chance to clean up.
Seriously, you need to decide which of you and Max are Hale and which is Pace. You're both hilarious this afternoon.
Literally right here you fool.
As for forecasts, I've made none. I've occasionally pointed out what would obviously happen under certain assumptions, which anyone numerate had the ability to check.
If you fancy yourself Nostradamus, that particular delusion is not my problem.
Sophia Sleigh
@SophiaSleigh
·
2h
Wes Streeting giving it some substance and style. Labour's got an impressive Commons' performer on the front bench there, imho. Quite the extraordinary opener to his speech - pointing out to Tory MPs that govt ministers are "not Nazis".
Honestly I couldn't care less if you think I am a moron or a genuis - it doesn't interest me either way. But you don't like having your own stuff quoted back at you and keep creating a strawman army with Philip and thats all fine. If it calms you down then good for you.
Or actually if I could be bothered. That was it. So yes you did make a forecast.
Change the infection rate to 100% and you get a markedly different result.
I have not said exit Covid. I have not said no protection. or any of the other things that you and Pace have been saying. I have pointed out that the significant dropping away of infection that was in that "exit wave" LSHTM report that you linked to hasn't happened. Nor has the sustained heavy rate of infection of all these other variants created natural immunity to Omicron.
You really need to chill. This is bad enough without you giving yourself conniptions. And in an argument with me as if my view has any more merit than yours or Philip's. Unless one of us is a leading virologist with access to the data model we're all pissing in the wind guessing. And I keep saying I am not in a position to predict this...
As I said just now, I don't think you're being dishonest, you simply lack the mental capability to understand this situation, that's fine but don't make stuff up.
Unbelievable that people are still pushing the anti-vaccine crap, even in the situation we're in now. Even more unbelievable that it's actually being supported by RCS.
The confirmed cases vs real cases issue is that in no country, anywhere, have all the cases been tested. I tried a while back aligning the reported cases numbers with the ONS studies - the ratio of reported to real varied between the various peaks. Which makes so sense - when COVID peaks in the public consciousness, more people will get a test.
Some unlucky bastards are getting reinfected. They weren't with Delta, and they need a booster despite 2 shots and the previous infection. So it doesn't care if you had Delta as it can hit you again hence the need for a booster.
I think this is only controversial to you and the few others who had been ramping that the failed exit wave now gave us all immunity. Well quite. Hence the panic need for a million boosters a day.
I'd say that 3-3.5 years would be more like it for the physical and psychological injuries caused and the behaviour displayed, and that "moment of madness" is a crappy defence when calmness and focus is the most important factor for anyone driving any car on a public road. The initial collision was caused by a third party obstructing the cyclist.
Quite ironic that he is bang to rights due to his own dashcam.
I'm not sure if GBH level harm (which is how it is defined) is enough to come under the Unduly Lenient Sentencing review scheme, but someone may refer it. But the list of offences for that is tilted towards the sexual.
Here's a very different case where a driver did receive 3.5 years.
https://www.herts.police.uk/news-and-appeals/man-sentenced-after-pleading-guilty-to-causing-serious-injury-by-dangerous-driving-in-watford-0661c
Edit, in case of misunderstanding:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severn_bore
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VjPp7xwlXKw
"we have the same lack of immunity to Omicron"
Omicron does care whether you had a previous variant and past infections is not a lack of immunity, its slightly reduced immunity.
Both con/LDs in to ~evens
As posted on here, I took a large position on cons at 2/1 on Friday night.
(It is the train of waves behind the front bore wave that are most soliton like, of course)
Presumably, if and when Omicron scythes through the workforce and a disproportionately large number of black staff end up dead because they aren't vaccinated, said rebel will be back to play the race card again and accuse the NHS and/or the Government of being institutionally racist?
It'd be funny if it weren't so sad.
I was responding to someone who said it was more risky to be vaccinated than not. Because he was in his 20s.
Are you too stupid to understand that that is an anti-vaccine argument? And totally fallacious?
Whitty: By mid Jan our NHS will have collapsed and whole hospitals will be closed.
I'm not an expert, but I am just beginning to wonder how they can both be right?
Well Gauteng cases have plateaued and there's still no sign of deaths rising off the floor in the country at large.
Cracking effort though.
I think because I saw through it he is not responding to me any more. Which is a shame. A great value poster.
I suppose that's one way to re-introduce social distancing to the Commons chamber: not having enough members left to fill it.
"I've occasionally pointed out what would obviously happen under certain assumptions, which anyone numerate had the ability to check."
So, you're not taking responsibility for your regular predictions of doom and disaster?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severn_bore
"Being the onset of the flood tide, the bore is accompanied by a rapid rise in water level which continues for about one and a half hours after the bore has passed. The Severn bore is not a self-reinforcing solitary wave or soliton but rather a shock wave which is formed because the wave is travelling faster than the wave speed in water above the bore (see tidal bore for more details). The passing of the bore causes a churning of the water, and the myriads of tiny bubbles popping contributes much of the roaring sound made by the bore.[4] The largest recorded bore was on 15 October 1966, when it reached a height of 2.8 m (9.2 ft) at Stonebench.[7]"
But it is amazingly impressive - though the usuial surfers have colonised it. Nice calming video to watch.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hfAYKM3FcVY
I am sick of these formulaic TV shows the BBC keeps trotting out.
Even if it was 1% protection it would, though it's coming in at about ~90% vs Delta at ~95% for symptomatic infection. Once again, explain to me how that is anything like "it cares not". It does, it cares a lot. In fact the 8-10m who got natural immunity over the summer and autumn will now possibly present 80-100k hospitalisations from reinfection rather than 400k-600k among people with no immunity. That's the reality you want to avoid seeing, yet it's still true.
I note Mississipi has reached 347/100k deaths, beating the one third of one percent benchmark. Lotta stiffs.
https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1470808821199163400
OTOH it has about 25% of its population fully vaccinated and a similar proportion living with HIV, but apparently that doesn't count.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q7Lov7QYuZ0
Edit: but one can only have one soliton at a time surely?
i might try referring this one to the ULS scheme, to see if it qualifies as a serious enough offence.
https://www.gov.uk/ask-crown-court-sentence-review
Now, on balance I disagree, but it's not clearcut. The risk of a bad outcome from the vaccine (let's exclude AZN as Eabhal unlikely offered that) was lower than the risk of bad outcome from Covid, even at low incidence in the summer, although perhaps not orders of magnitude difference depending on future events.
But, some unpleasant side effects from the vaccine were quite common - moreso in younger people, it seemed. For most younger people, Covid was not a big deal (it was, of course, for some). So, "in personal interest"? It's at least open to debate and depends on values put on various things - high likelihood of a few shitty days in the middle of summer versus an uncertain risk (at the time) of even getting exposed to Covid. Even I (late 30s) got vaccinated more for protection of others and to try and ensure we could lose the restrictions by pushing towards herd immunity than due to particular risk to myself from Covid, although I would say it was also in my interests.
He got vaccinated, presumably - from the stated view of "not in our personal interest" - to protect others. That's hardly antivax.
Now. Is it too much to expect that you admit you hadn't read the post I was replying to, and apologise? Or should we really assume you are happy to defend nonsensical anti-vaccine propaganda here?
And yet
(i) The % uplift you need to apply to reported +ve tests to get total actual estimated cases.
(ii) The reinfection rate % for Omi.
These are different things, aren't they, with (i) being much higher than (ii).
As my wife remains properly ill with this I'm hardly likely to willing others to be similarly poorly to win a "battle with you.