It occurs to me that NHS might collapse whatever we do. It doesn’t matter if everyone is entombed in personal tungsten cave-cubicles, we will still get it, 40% of us will get it bad enough to take a week off work maybe 5% will go to hospital and 1% die?
That’s enough to totally fuck the economy. To stop everything. All work. No?
Unless you get wartime recruitment of the well-enough-old, young and recovered to staff shops and drive buses and the like, and what if they then get Delta to go down with it again? There are rumours you can get both.
How does a society function with this level of illness?
"The country will face an “exit wave” of coronavirus infections whenever restrictions are lifted, England’s chief medical officer has said."
DEMONSTRABLY AN ABUSE OF THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
If we had seen cases rise and fall then fine. But we didn't. Cases rose. And with some variations at the top stayed largely the same. We didn't see the dropping away as we exit that wave. Its just stayed high permanently.
We did see them fall.
Because in the first phase schools were closed, in the second the schools were reopened.
Unless you have come to some perverted belief that schools don't affect transmission? Is that your claim now?
Lol
Covid cases 17th May 2,220 (7 day average). Then after we made changes a big spike and the pogoing highs and lows around the new baseline.
When you say "we did see them fall" it was to 25,722, a mere 11.5x higher than the start. And then up and up and up.
You are being so insane now, May was during restrictions, why the hell would it have to fall beneath the figure that is only achievable with restrictions? What an absurd suggestion (!)
Are you so naive and so unwilling to be realistic now that you can't tell the difference between transmission with schools closed and transmission with schools open now?
16 July 47,970.4 13 September 28,540.4
So the 7 day average halved until the schools went back, that's one wave.
You seem to be in utter denial. First you want us to exit the virus, then you want cases to fall below what they were when we were in lockdown. You just clearly haven't grasped the severity of reality have you?
You're getting irate at others because you're in complete denial.
More belly laughs at my end - this is great! Had it dropped to 28k and kept falling then that would have been great! Instead that was the new floor and then we saw an ever-increasing level of new floors. 28k. 33k, now 51k.
You said "We did see them fall. Because in the first phase schools were closed, in the second the schools were reopened." Yes. And then they went up again. And up some more. And some more.
We replaced the 2k cases a day with mask restrictions with a very best 28k a day and then up and up. If an ever-increasing number of cases is us exiting having cases then black truly is white.
Do keep it up, you're as funny as HYUFD foaming on about Toryism.
Why would it keep falling? Schools reopened! Then it became winter.
You are utterly delusional. Had we not had the exit wave we would have seen exponential growth with schools open, no restrictions and winter. To keep levels flat, while circumstances are getting worse, is proof that the wave has happened.
I'm not an expert on waves, but I don't think they're supposed to peak, and then just keep going at the level of the peak indefinitely.
I think the assumption is that there would be a single exit wave. Looking at the data, from the end of lockdown, there appear to be multiple "waves", interacting with each other.
If nothing else, you have the feedback loop from people reading https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk etc and changing their behaviour according to what they read.....
513,722 booster vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday (329,165 the previous Monday)
🏴 418,544 🏴 45,601 🏴 26,676 NI 22,901
Are these numbers actually from yesterday, or are we still in an era where there is a reporting delay for jabs? Because if it was yesterday, with supposed queues round the block, we are never going to do 1.x million a day, every day.
There's a fair bit of reporting lag. My booster has been registered and is in the app, my wife's isn't yet.
Nigeria and Senegal will destroy about 1.4 million COVID-19 vaccines which are set to expire - REU
Absolute madness - Nigeria is under 4% double vaccinated.
You can't force people to be vaccinated and in a lot of Africa the idiots have managed to spread enough false information about vaccinations that few people want to take the "risk".
Nigeria and Senegal will destroy about 1.4 million COVID-19 vaccines which are set to expire - REU
Absolute madness - Nigeria is under 4% double vaccinated.
You can't force people to be vaccinated and in a lot of Africa the idiots have managed to spread enough false information about vaccinations that few people want to take the "risk".
Apparently there is also a massive imbalance of men vs women. Even among men that do go and get it done, common for them to refuse permission for their wives to do so.
"The country will face an “exit wave” of coronavirus infections whenever restrictions are lifted, England’s chief medical officer has said."
DEMONSTRABLY AN ABUSE OF THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
If we had seen cases rise and fall then fine. But we didn't. Cases rose. And with some variations at the top stayed largely the same. We didn't see the dropping away as we exit that wave. Its just stayed high permanently.
We did see them fall.
Because in the first phase schools were closed, in the second the schools were reopened.
Unless you have come to some perverted belief that schools don't affect transmission? Is that your claim now?
Lol
Covid cases 17th May 2,220 (7 day average). Then after we made changes a big spike and the pogoing highs and lows around the new baseline.
When you say "we did see them fall" it was to 25,722, a mere 11.5x higher than the start. And then up and up and up.
You are being so insane now, May was during restrictions, why the hell would it have to fall beneath the figure that is only achievable with restrictions? What an absurd suggestion (!)
Are you so naive and so unwilling to be realistic now that you can't tell the difference between transmission with schools closed and transmission with schools open now?
16 July 47,970.4 13 September 28,540.4
So the 7 day average halved until the schools went back, that's one wave.
You seem to be in utter denial. First you want us to exit the virus, then you want cases to fall below what they were when we were in lockdown. You just clearly haven't grasped the severity of reality have you?
You're getting irate at others because you're in complete denial.
More belly laughs at my end - this is great! Had it dropped to 28k and kept falling then that would have been great! Instead that was the new floor and then we saw an ever-increasing level of new floors. 28k. 33k, now 51k.
You said "We did see them fall. Because in the first phase schools were closed, in the second the schools were reopened." Yes. And then they went up again. And up some more. And some more.
We replaced the 2k cases a day with mask restrictions with a very best 28k a day and then up and up. If an ever-increasing number of cases is us exiting having cases then black truly is white.
Do keep it up, you're as funny as HYUFD foaming on about Toryism.
"We replaced the 2k cases a day with mask restrictions"
You dishonest twerp. You took the data from when we were in Step 2 of lockdown.
In case you've forgotten by now, Step 2 was when it was illegal for restaurants to be open indoors. Childrens play areas, hotels, sport for fans etc were all closed. It was illegal to be within 2 metres of other people. It was illegal to go into other people's houses.
So yes if you want to have zero integrity, take lockdown Step 2 as your baseline and as "mask restrictions".
"Exiting Covid" and considering legal lockdown as your baseline for "mask restrictions" alone . . . you need to take a time out. You have thrown all your integrity away.
Nigeria and Senegal will destroy about 1.4 million COVID-19 vaccines which are set to expire - REU
Absolute madness - Nigeria is under 4% double vaccinated.
You can't force people to be vaccinated and in a lot of Africa the idiots have managed to spread enough false information about vaccinations that few people want to take the "risk".
Apparently there is also a massive imbalance of men vs women. Even among men that do go and get it done, common for them to refuse permission for their wives to do so.
Nigeria and Senegal will destroy about 1.4 million COVID-19 vaccines which are set to expire - REU
Absolute madness - Nigeria is under 4% double vaccinated.
You can't force people to be vaccinated and in a lot of Africa the idiots have managed to spread enough false information about vaccinations that few people want to take the "risk".
The young population saves Africa. Plus a much higher tolerance for death from avoidable disease. That, and the lack of any real expectations of living to 80, let alone being active at that age.
Nicola Sturgeon says: "If you do plan on socialising - either at home or in indoor public places - we are asking that you limit the number of households represented in your group to a maximum of three. She says this limit does not apply to people's main Christmas celebration.
I can't see how this makes any difference versus super infectious Omicron. Three households together is a lot of people, and Christmas is a free for all.
I'd have thought 3 households would be a broadly normal number for most families over christmas ?
I’m hosting six at the peak, albeit just for one day.
Nigeria and Senegal will destroy about 1.4 million COVID-19 vaccines which are set to expire - REU
Absolute madness - Nigeria is under 4% double vaccinated.
You can't force people to be vaccinated and in a lot of Africa the idiots have managed to spread enough false information about vaccinations that few people want to take the "risk".
Apparently there is also a massive imbalance of men vs women. Even among men that do go and get it done, common for them to refuse permission for their wives to do so.
It'll be the fertility nonsense I think
I saw a report on it (DW News I think). There is the fertility BS, the whole the white man is trying to keep the black man down.
There is also the issue that the men travel into towns to work, where centres only open certain hours, then there is also a cultural issue of women aren't to be leaving the village and going there on their own. The report was talking about mobile units going out into the villages, but they don't have access to vehicles every day etc.
It occurs to me that NHS might collapse whatever we do. It doesn’t matter if everyone is entombed in personal tungsten cave-cubicles, we will still get it, 40% of us will get it bad enough to take a week off work maybe 5% will go to hospital and 1% die?
That’s enough to totally fuck the economy. To stop everything. All work. No?
Unless you get wartime recruitment of the well-enough-old, young and recovered to staff shops and drive buses and the like, and what if they then get Delta to go down with it again? There are rumours you can get both.
How does a society function with this level of illness?
AND WHO WILL DIG THE PLAGUE PITS?
By January most of us will have had our boosters and the hospitals will be fine.
I am sorry but that statement is just plain complacent, the hospitals will not be fine by the end of January
"The country will face an “exit wave” of coronavirus infections whenever restrictions are lifted, England’s chief medical officer has said."
DEMONSTRABLY AN ABUSE OF THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
If we had seen cases rise and fall then fine. But we didn't. Cases rose. And with some variations at the top stayed largely the same. We didn't see the dropping away as we exit that wave. Its just stayed high permanently.
We did see them fall.
Because in the first phase schools were closed, in the second the schools were reopened.
Unless you have come to some perverted belief that schools don't affect transmission? Is that your claim now?
Lol
Covid cases 17th May 2,220 (7 day average). Then after we made changes a big spike and the pogoing highs and lows around the new baseline.
When you say "we did see them fall" it was to 25,722, a mere 11.5x higher than the start. And then up and up and up.
You are being so insane now, May was during restrictions, why the hell would it have to fall beneath the figure that is only achievable with restrictions? What an absurd suggestion (!)
Are you so naive and so unwilling to be realistic now that you can't tell the difference between transmission with schools closed and transmission with schools open now?
16 July 47,970.4 13 September 28,540.4
So the 7 day average halved until the schools went back, that's one wave.
You seem to be in utter denial. First you want us to exit the virus, then you want cases to fall below what they were when we were in lockdown. You just clearly haven't grasped the severity of reality have you?
You're getting irate at others because you're in complete denial.
More belly laughs at my end - this is great! Had it dropped to 28k and kept falling then that would have been great! Instead that was the new floor and then we saw an ever-increasing level of new floors. 28k. 33k, now 51k.
You said "We did see them fall. Because in the first phase schools were closed, in the second the schools were reopened." Yes. And then they went up again. And up some more. And some more.
We replaced the 2k cases a day with mask restrictions with a very best 28k a day and then up and up. If an ever-increasing number of cases is us exiting having cases then black truly is white.
Do keep it up, you're as funny as HYUFD foaming on about Toryism.
"We replaced the 2k cases a day with mask restrictions"
You dishonest twerp. You took the data from when we were in Step 2 of lockdown.
In case you've forgotten by now, Step 2 was when it was illegal for restaurants to be open indoors. Childrens play areas, hotels, sport for fans etc were all closed. It was illegal to be within 2 metres of other people. It was illegal to go into other people's houses.
So yes if you want to have zero integrity, take lockdown Step 2 as your baseline and as "mask restrictions".
"Exiting Covid" and considering legal lockdown as your baseline for "mask restrictions" alone . . . you need to take a time out. You have thrown all your integrity away.
He's a moron, he clearly thinks COVID can be defeated but doesn't want to out himself as a moron.
The 1922 Xmas Party cancelled. Here we all are talking about COVID and vaccines 24/7 again, rather than the egregious inadequacies of our government. It's been said before, but, Boris is a lucky, lucky general.
"The country will face an “exit wave” of coronavirus infections whenever restrictions are lifted, England’s chief medical officer has said."
DEMONSTRABLY AN ABUSE OF THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
If we had seen cases rise and fall then fine. But we didn't. Cases rose. And with some variations at the top stayed largely the same. We didn't see the dropping away as we exit that wave. Its just stayed high permanently.
We did see them fall.
Because in the first phase schools were closed, in the second the schools were reopened.
Unless you have come to some perverted belief that schools don't affect transmission? Is that your claim now?
Lol
Covid cases 17th May 2,220 (7 day average). Then after we made changes a big spike and the pogoing highs and lows around the new baseline.
When you say "we did see them fall" it was to 25,722, a mere 11.5x higher than the start. And then up and up and up.
You are being so insane now, May was during restrictions, why the hell would it have to fall beneath the figure that is only achievable with restrictions? What an absurd suggestion (!)
Are you so naive and so unwilling to be realistic now that you can't tell the difference between transmission with schools closed and transmission with schools open now?
16 July 47,970.4 13 September 28,540.4
So the 7 day average halved until the schools went back, that's one wave.
You seem to be in utter denial. First you want us to exit the virus, then you want cases to fall below what they were when we were in lockdown. You just clearly haven't grasped the severity of reality have you?
You're getting irate at others because you're in complete denial.
More belly laughs at my end - this is great! Had it dropped to 28k and kept falling then that would have been great! Instead that was the new floor and then we saw an ever-increasing level of new floors. 28k. 33k, now 51k.
You said "We did see them fall. Because in the first phase schools were closed, in the second the schools were reopened." Yes. And then they went up again. And up some more. And some more.
We replaced the 2k cases a day with mask restrictions with a very best 28k a day and then up and up. If an ever-increasing number of cases is us exiting having cases then black truly is white.
Do keep it up, you're as funny as HYUFD foaming on about Toryism.
Why would it keep falling? Schools reopened! Then it became winter.
You are utterly delusional. Had we not had the exit wave we would have seen exponential growth with schools open, no restrictions and winter. To keep levels flat, while circumstances are getting worse, is proof that the wave has happened.
I'm not an expert on waves, but I don't think they're supposed to peak, and then just keep going at the level of the peak indefinitely.
One reason waves in the water form the pattern they do is the ground level is rising which causes the water to rise too.
In the UK since lifting lockdown the ground level for Covid's spread has been rising: Schools reopened, summer ended, winter began. And yet despite the ground level rising, the cases have been flat. Why?
The only reason the cases have been flat despite the higher ground level, is that the prior wave had just happened.
Imagine if it was the other way around, starting in winter with schools open, then going into spring, then summer, then the schools closed over summer holidays - if cases were flat over that, then you'd be confused why.
To have cases flat, while the ground level to boost Covid is getting higher, is proof that the wave had happened, not proof it didn't.
"Exiting Covid" and considering legal lockdown as your baseline for "mask restrictions" alone . . . you need to take a time out. You have thrown all your integrity away.
It occurs to me that NHS might collapse whatever we do. It doesn’t matter if everyone is entombed in personal tungsten cave-cubicles, we will still get it, 40% of us will get it bad enough to take a week off work maybe 5% will go to hospital and 1% die?
That’s enough to totally fuck the economy. To stop everything. All work. No?
Unless you get wartime recruitment of the well-enough-old, young and recovered to staff shops and drive buses and the like, and what if they then get Delta to go down with it again? There are rumours you can get both.
How does a society function with this level of illness?
AND WHO WILL DIG THE PLAGUE PITS?
Pure anecdata but I know many people who've tested positive over the last two or three days and all are reporting mild cold-like symptoms. Sore throats, sniffles, but nothing to stop them doing their day jobs (from home). So best guess is we're all going to be OK.
Big question from me though is, even if we got lucky this time, what if the next mutation is just as contagious and vaccine-evading, but far more deadly?
When we say this is endemic, do we mean we're just waiting for a variant to come along that will finish most of us all off, be it next year or a few years down the line?
If the modellers are to be believed there is no slow and bulldozer when it comes to Omicron. Its faster than Max Ver-Crash-En on the final lap of the F1.
If the modellers are correct even if we do all the boosters in time it will be too late to add much protection to most of those people. It's still worth going as fast as possible, you sure as hell do not want to hang about when Omicron is on the way, but I don't think we will slow Omicron down very much.
Well our return to the office which was scheduled for Monday the 7th of February, has once more been postponed.
Not until after Easter is the latest marker.
Am I ever going to be in the same office as my staff again?
Why are they so prescriptive? Sensible approach is to leave it up to the staff whether they go in or not until things are clearer. Sometimes it’s helpful to be in the office - indeed I’m heading into mine right now.
H&S - as my wife's company states - only people who need to be in the office for work or mental health reasons can currently work from the office.
Why would anyone go into the office if not for work? I’m prepared to believe that some might make a special trip purely to shag the caretaker, but am willing to wager that they are a niche group at best.
It occurs to me that NHS might collapse whatever we do. It doesn’t matter if everyone is entombed in personal tungsten cave-cubicles, we will still get it, 40% of us will get it bad enough to take a week off work maybe 5% will go to hospital and 1% die?
That’s enough to totally fuck the economy. To stop everything. All work. No?
Unless you get wartime recruitment of the well-enough-old, young and recovered to staff shops and drive buses and the like, and what if they then get Delta to go down with it again? There are rumours you can get both.
How does a society function with this level of illness?
AND WHO WILL DIG THE PLAGUE PITS?
Assuming a positive correlation I think you should move up the quality/price scale of your boozing tbh.
"The country will face an “exit wave” of coronavirus infections whenever restrictions are lifted, England’s chief medical officer has said."
DEMONSTRABLY AN ABUSE OF THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
If we had seen cases rise and fall then fine. But we didn't. Cases rose. And with some variations at the top stayed largely the same. We didn't see the dropping away as we exit that wave. Its just stayed high permanently.
We did see them fall.
Because in the first phase schools were closed, in the second the schools were reopened.
Unless you have come to some perverted belief that schools don't affect transmission? Is that your claim now?
Lol
Covid cases 17th May 2,220 (7 day average). Then after we made changes a big spike and the pogoing highs and lows around the new baseline.
When you say "we did see them fall" it was to 25,722, a mere 11.5x higher than the start. And then up and up and up.
You are being so insane now, May was during restrictions, why the hell would it have to fall beneath the figure that is only achievable with restrictions? What an absurd suggestion (!)
Are you so naive and so unwilling to be realistic now that you can't tell the difference between transmission with schools closed and transmission with schools open now?
16 July 47,970.4 13 September 28,540.4
So the 7 day average halved until the schools went back, that's one wave.
You seem to be in utter denial. First you want us to exit the virus, then you want cases to fall below what they were when we were in lockdown. You just clearly haven't grasped the severity of reality have you?
You're getting irate at others because you're in complete denial.
More belly laughs at my end - this is great! Had it dropped to 28k and kept falling then that would have been great! Instead that was the new floor and then we saw an ever-increasing level of new floors. 28k. 33k, now 51k.
You said "We did see them fall. Because in the first phase schools were closed, in the second the schools were reopened." Yes. And then they went up again. And up some more. And some more.
We replaced the 2k cases a day with mask restrictions with a very best 28k a day and then up and up. If an ever-increasing number of cases is us exiting having cases then black truly is white.
Do keep it up, you're as funny as HYUFD foaming on about Toryism.
"We replaced the 2k cases a day with mask restrictions"
You dishonest twerp. You took the data from when we were in Step 2 of lockdown.
In case you've forgotten by now, Step 2 was when it was illegal for restaurants to be open indoors. Childrens play areas, hotels, sport for fans etc were all closed. It was illegal to be within 2 metres of other people. It was illegal to go into other people's houses.
So yes if you want to have zero integrity, take lockdown Step 2 as your baseline and as "mask restrictions".
"Exiting Covid" and considering legal lockdown as your baseline for "mask restrictions" alone . . . you need to take a time out. You have thrown all your integrity away.
You seem pretty angry today
Suggesting that when it was illegal to be in other people's homes is the baseline we should be operating at is infuriating, yes.
"The country will face an “exit wave” of coronavirus infections whenever restrictions are lifted, England’s chief medical officer has said."
DEMONSTRABLY AN ABUSE OF THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
If we had seen cases rise and fall then fine. But we didn't. Cases rose. And with some variations at the top stayed largely the same. We didn't see the dropping away as we exit that wave. Its just stayed high permanently.
We did see them fall.
Because in the first phase schools were closed, in the second the schools were reopened.
Unless you have come to some perverted belief that schools don't affect transmission? Is that your claim now?
Lol
Covid cases 17th May 2,220 (7 day average). Then after we made changes a big spike and the pogoing highs and lows around the new baseline.
When you say "we did see them fall" it was to 25,722, a mere 11.5x higher than the start. And then up and up and up.
You are being so insane now, May was during restrictions, why the hell would it have to fall beneath the figure that is only achievable with restrictions? What an absurd suggestion (!)
Are you so naive and so unwilling to be realistic now that you can't tell the difference between transmission with schools closed and transmission with schools open now?
16 July 47,970.4 13 September 28,540.4
So the 7 day average halved until the schools went back, that's one wave.
You seem to be in utter denial. First you want us to exit the virus, then you want cases to fall below what they were when we were in lockdown. You just clearly haven't grasped the severity of reality have you?
You're getting irate at others because you're in complete denial.
More belly laughs at my end - this is great! Had it dropped to 28k and kept falling then that would have been great! Instead that was the new floor and then we saw an ever-increasing level of new floors. 28k. 33k, now 51k.
You said "We did see them fall. Because in the first phase schools were closed, in the second the schools were reopened." Yes. And then they went up again. And up some more. And some more.
We replaced the 2k cases a day with mask restrictions with a very best 28k a day and then up and up. If an ever-increasing number of cases is us exiting having cases then black truly is white.
Do keep it up, you're as funny as HYUFD foaming on about Toryism.
"We replaced the 2k cases a day with mask restrictions"
You dishonest twerp. You took the data from when we were in Step 2 of lockdown.
In case you've forgotten by now, Step 2 was when it was illegal for restaurants to be open indoors. Childrens play areas, hotels, sport for fans etc were all closed. It was illegal to be within 2 metres of other people. It was illegal to go into other people's houses.
So yes if you want to have zero integrity, take lockdown Step 2 as your baseline and as "mask restrictions".
"Exiting Covid" and considering legal lockdown as your baseline for "mask restrictions" alone . . . you need to take a time out. You have thrown all your integrity away.
He's a moron, he clearly thinks COVID can be defeated but doesn't want to out himself as a moron.
Um, RP is actually using things you've said in the past against you because in theory the exit wave from July onwards should have resulted in us hitting herd immunity by now - at which point infection numbers should have dropped because there would be very few people left to be infected.
And it's clear that that has happened although it's equally clear that until Omicron arrived R0 was at a steady level of about 1.
18 months. What do we think? I'm not sure why the driver wasn't prosecuted for attempted murder.
Violent criminal who is "one of us." Not "one of them." Aside from the sentence. 3 year ban? For a man prepared to use his vehicle as a weapon? If it had been a gun, would he ever be allowed one again? I think not.
"The country will face an “exit wave” of coronavirus infections whenever restrictions are lifted, England’s chief medical officer has said."
DEMONSTRABLY AN ABUSE OF THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
If we had seen cases rise and fall then fine. But we didn't. Cases rose. And with some variations at the top stayed largely the same. We didn't see the dropping away as we exit that wave. Its just stayed high permanently.
We did see them fall.
Because in the first phase schools were closed, in the second the schools were reopened.
Unless you have come to some perverted belief that schools don't affect transmission? Is that your claim now?
Lol
Covid cases 17th May 2,220 (7 day average). Then after we made changes a big spike and the pogoing highs and lows around the new baseline.
When you say "we did see them fall" it was to 25,722, a mere 11.5x higher than the start. And then up and up and up.
You are being so insane now, May was during restrictions, why the hell would it have to fall beneath the figure that is only achievable with restrictions? What an absurd suggestion (!)
Are you so naive and so unwilling to be realistic now that you can't tell the difference between transmission with schools closed and transmission with schools open now?
16 July 47,970.4 13 September 28,540.4
So the 7 day average halved until the schools went back, that's one wave.
You seem to be in utter denial. First you want us to exit the virus, then you want cases to fall below what they were when we were in lockdown. You just clearly haven't grasped the severity of reality have you?
You're getting irate at others because you're in complete denial.
More belly laughs at my end - this is great! Had it dropped to 28k and kept falling then that would have been great! Instead that was the new floor and then we saw an ever-increasing level of new floors. 28k. 33k, now 51k.
You said "We did see them fall. Because in the first phase schools were closed, in the second the schools were reopened." Yes. And then they went up again. And up some more. And some more.
We replaced the 2k cases a day with mask restrictions with a very best 28k a day and then up and up. If an ever-increasing number of cases is us exiting having cases then black truly is white.
Do keep it up, you're as funny as HYUFD foaming on about Toryism.
"We replaced the 2k cases a day with mask restrictions"
You dishonest twerp. You took the data from when we were in Step 2 of lockdown.
In case you've forgotten by now, Step 2 was when it was illegal for restaurants to be open indoors. Childrens play areas, hotels, sport for fans etc were all closed. It was illegal to be within 2 metres of other people. It was illegal to go into other people's houses.
So yes if you want to have zero integrity, take lockdown Step 2 as your baseline and as "mask restrictions".
"Exiting Covid" and considering legal lockdown as your baseline for "mask restrictions" alone . . . you need to take a time out. You have thrown all your integrity away.
He's a moron, he clearly thinks COVID can be defeated but doesn't want to out himself as a moron.
Old love, you threw that LSHTM study at me which defined an exit wave where infection numbers collapsed rapidly in either November or December.
As I say repeatedly, I am not a virologist, scientist or medic who can speak with any authority on this. So I defer to those who do know what they are talking about. Such as the London School for Hygene and Tropical Medicine. Who in a report cited by you proposed something you now define as making me a moron.
It occurs to me that NHS might collapse whatever we do. It doesn’t matter if everyone is entombed in personal tungsten cave-cubicles, we will still get it, 40% of us will get it bad enough to take a week off work maybe 5% will go to hospital and 1% die?
That’s enough to totally fuck the economy. To stop everything. All work. No?
Unless you get wartime recruitment of the well-enough-old, young and recovered to staff shops and drive buses and the like, and what if they then get Delta to go down with it again? There are rumours you can get both.
How does a society function with this level of illness?
AND WHO WILL DIG THE PLAGUE PITS?
Pure anecdata but I know many people who've tested positive over the last two or three days and all are reporting mild cold-like symptoms. Sore throats, sniffles, but nothing to stop them doing their day jobs (from home). So best guess is we're all going to be OK.
Big question from me though is, even if we got lucky this time, what if the next mutation is just as contagious and vaccine-evading, but far more deadly?
When we say this is endemic, do we mean we're just waiting for a variant to come along that will finish most of us all off, be it next year or a few years down the line?
We'd all have got Omicron by then which gives our immune systems more training to recognise and eradicate infected cells. Additionally gen 2 vaccines are being created to fight what we think the most likely mutations will be because we've got a lot of data on the common evolutionary pathway of COVID now.
"Exiting Covid" and considering legal lockdown as your baseline for "mask restrictions" alone . . . you need to take a time out. You have thrown all your integrity away.
I have to say in two years "exit the virus" is surely up there among the most stupid things said about it. That there's anyone who believes that is worrying and the government Comms needs to be updated to warn everyone that we're all going to get it and the best way to decrease likelihood of symptoms is to get vaccinated. There is no other game in town.
I agree! So why do you keep saying we had an exit wave?
Because we did? Immunity and vaccine coverage in the UK is the highest in the world. Despite all of the doom rhetoric from the scientists we're not in any lockdown while most of Europe has got severe restrictions on going anywhere. Omicron may change the game, it may not. But in the summer to now 11-13m people got the virus, 70-80% of them unvaccinated by choice. Would you rather they had zero immunity heading into the Omicron wave?
Don't take my word for it Chris Whitty said it in June. It was and remains the right strategy, everyone is going ti get COVID. Lockdowns and NPIs displace infections, but now the vaccine cavalry is already here, last winter it wasn't so displacement of 1000 infections was ~9.5 lives saved. Today displacement of infections will save close to zero lives, anyone who wants to be can get vaccinated. I walked into a pharmacy with my wife yesterday and we both got our boosters.
Again and again, the only game in town is vaccines. Lockdowns will do nothing because the moment we unlock the virus will be back. Infecting all those same idiots who refused the vaccine. Lockdown to save people who refused the vaccine is immoral, better to tell them to die at home.
The reality is that those who are calling for lockdowns are looking for a legislative safety blanket where none exists.
It has been my view throughout that it is not the role of the state to protect people from a virus. Measures to fundamentally restrict the liberties of e.g. children to 'protect' the very elderly and vulnerable are not IMO morally justified at the current CFR. Excessive safetyism is not a road I want the state to go down.
I am very proud to see so many Tory 'rebel' MPs standing up for liberty today. I would vote exactly the same way.
"The country will face an “exit wave” of coronavirus infections whenever restrictions are lifted, England’s chief medical officer has said."
DEMONSTRABLY AN ABUSE OF THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
If we had seen cases rise and fall then fine. But we didn't. Cases rose. And with some variations at the top stayed largely the same. We didn't see the dropping away as we exit that wave. Its just stayed high permanently.
We did see them fall.
Because in the first phase schools were closed, in the second the schools were reopened.
Unless you have come to some perverted belief that schools don't affect transmission? Is that your claim now?
Lol
Covid cases 17th May 2,220 (7 day average). Then after we made changes a big spike and the pogoing highs and lows around the new baseline.
When you say "we did see them fall" it was to 25,722, a mere 11.5x higher than the start. And then up and up and up.
You are being so insane now, May was during restrictions, why the hell would it have to fall beneath the figure that is only achievable with restrictions? What an absurd suggestion (!)
Are you so naive and so unwilling to be realistic now that you can't tell the difference between transmission with schools closed and transmission with schools open now?
16 July 47,970.4 13 September 28,540.4
So the 7 day average halved until the schools went back, that's one wave.
You seem to be in utter denial. First you want us to exit the virus, then you want cases to fall below what they were when we were in lockdown. You just clearly haven't grasped the severity of reality have you?
You're getting irate at others because you're in complete denial.
More belly laughs at my end - this is great! Had it dropped to 28k and kept falling then that would have been great! Instead that was the new floor and then we saw an ever-increasing level of new floors. 28k. 33k, now 51k.
You said "We did see them fall. Because in the first phase schools were closed, in the second the schools were reopened." Yes. And then they went up again. And up some more. And some more.
We replaced the 2k cases a day with mask restrictions with a very best 28k a day and then up and up. If an ever-increasing number of cases is us exiting having cases then black truly is white.
Do keep it up, you're as funny as HYUFD foaming on about Toryism.
"We replaced the 2k cases a day with mask restrictions"
You dishonest twerp. You took the data from when we were in Step 2 of lockdown.
In case you've forgotten by now, Step 2 was when it was illegal for restaurants to be open indoors. Childrens play areas, hotels, sport for fans etc were all closed. It was illegal to be within 2 metres of other people. It was illegal to go into other people's houses.
So yes if you want to have zero integrity, take lockdown Step 2 as your baseline and as "mask restrictions".
"Exiting Covid" and considering legal lockdown as your baseline for "mask restrictions" alone . . . you need to take a time out. You have thrown all your integrity away.
He's a moron, he clearly thinks COVID can be defeated but doesn't want to out himself as a moron.
Old love, you threw that LSHTM study at me which defined an exit wave where infection numbers collapsed rapidly in either November or December.
As I say repeatedly, I am not a virologist, scientist or medic who can speak with any authority on this. So I defer to those who do know what they are talking about. Such as the London School for Hygene and Tropical Medicine. Who in a report cited by you proposed something you now define as making me a moron.
Nicola Sturgeon says: "If you do plan on socialising - either at home or in indoor public places - we are asking that you limit the number of households represented in your group to a maximum of three. She says this limit does not apply to people's main Christmas celebration.
I can't see how this makes any difference versus super infectious Omicron. Three households together is a lot of people, and Christmas is a free for all.
I'd have thought 3 households would be a broadly normal number for most families over christmas ?
I’m hosting six at the peak, albeit just for one day.
At least you hope you are. Unless half of them have come down with Omicron before then. Which is the risk out there - infections running rampant forcing people out of circulation as opposed to threats of lockdowns later.
"The country will face an “exit wave” of coronavirus infections whenever restrictions are lifted, England’s chief medical officer has said."
DEMONSTRABLY AN ABUSE OF THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
If we had seen cases rise and fall then fine. But we didn't. Cases rose. And with some variations at the top stayed largely the same. We didn't see the dropping away as we exit that wave. Its just stayed high permanently.
We did see them fall.
Because in the first phase schools were closed, in the second the schools were reopened.
Unless you have come to some perverted belief that schools don't affect transmission? Is that your claim now?
Lol
Covid cases 17th May 2,220 (7 day average). Then after we made changes a big spike and the pogoing highs and lows around the new baseline.
When you say "we did see them fall" it was to 25,722, a mere 11.5x higher than the start. And then up and up and up.
You are being so insane now, May was during restrictions, why the hell would it have to fall beneath the figure that is only achievable with restrictions? What an absurd suggestion (!)
Are you so naive and so unwilling to be realistic now that you can't tell the difference between transmission with schools closed and transmission with schools open now?
16 July 47,970.4 13 September 28,540.4
So the 7 day average halved until the schools went back, that's one wave.
You seem to be in utter denial. First you want us to exit the virus, then you want cases to fall below what they were when we were in lockdown. You just clearly haven't grasped the severity of reality have you?
You're getting irate at others because you're in complete denial.
More belly laughs at my end - this is great! Had it dropped to 28k and kept falling then that would have been great! Instead that was the new floor and then we saw an ever-increasing level of new floors. 28k. 33k, now 51k.
You said "We did see them fall. Because in the first phase schools were closed, in the second the schools were reopened." Yes. And then they went up again. And up some more. And some more.
We replaced the 2k cases a day with mask restrictions with a very best 28k a day and then up and up. If an ever-increasing number of cases is us exiting having cases then black truly is white.
Do keep it up, you're as funny as HYUFD foaming on about Toryism.
"We replaced the 2k cases a day with mask restrictions"
You dishonest twerp. You took the data from when we were in Step 2 of lockdown.
In case you've forgotten by now, Step 2 was when it was illegal for restaurants to be open indoors. Childrens play areas, hotels, sport for fans etc were all closed. It was illegal to be within 2 metres of other people. It was illegal to go into other people's houses.
So yes if you want to have zero integrity, take lockdown Step 2 as your baseline and as "mask restrictions".
"Exiting Covid" and considering legal lockdown as your baseline for "mask restrictions" alone . . . you need to take a time out. You have thrown all your integrity away.
He's a moron, he clearly thinks COVID can be defeated but doesn't want to out himself as a moron.
Um, RP is actually using things you've said in the past against you because in theory the exit wave from July onwards should have resulted in us hitting herd immunity by now - at which point infection numbers should have dropped because there would be very few people left to be infected.
And it's clear that that has happened although it's equally clear that until Omicron arrived R0 was at a steady level of about 1.
Pre-Omicron we had hit herd immunity which is why exponential growth wasn't occurring, without any restrictions and with a worsening environment (schools reopening, summer ending, winter starting etc)
Only a straw in the wind, but a couple of Tory "rebels" have told me they now plan to vote with the govt, partly because they don't want to be in the same division lobby as Marcus "Nazi Germany" Fysh. Wonder if the rebellion will hit the 80 or so predicted..lots of abstentions? https://twitter.com/GeorgeWParker/status/1470747075696594944
I once gobbed on the driver's door handle of his stupid fucking Subaru in the supermarket car park. I'm doing my bit.
Shocked I tell you, absolutely shocked, on her take...LOCKDOWN NOW....
Prof Reicher says people should be clearly told "don't socialise" or govt could legislate to ensure they do. Reicher says govt should use any time during restrictions to make environments safer, i.e. ventilation etc. If it doesn't it will have "squandered" that time
iSAGE are back with a bang. We need 12 years more Lockdown until every home has been fitted with high grade ventilation systems...
Nobody is arguing for lockdown forever, even people who seem to be a bit shrieky.
Reality is that we have a valid point here - months of 40k new cases a day is not a positive...
You've been wrong for months. It is a fantastic positive.
You still seem to fail to understand that it was an exit wave too. It was both an exit (from restrictions) and a wave (since the 40k was with schools closed, then schools open, without an exponential increase when schools reopened).
Phil, whatever else we can describe the last few months it certainly hasn't been an "exit wave".
There's a lot of "aged poorly" posts from the start of june when cases were around 5k about how cases couldn't possibly go any higher.
I have to say in two years "exit the virus" is surely up there among the most stupid things said about it. That there's anyone who believes that is worrying and the government Comms needs to be updated to warn everyone that we're all going to get it and the best way to decrease likelihood of symptoms is to get vaccinated. There is no other game in town.
I agree! So why do you keep saying we had an exit wave?
Because we did? Immunity and vaccine coverage in the UK is the highest in the world. Despite all of the doom rhetoric from the scientists we're not in any lockdown while most of Europe has got severe restrictions on going anywhere. Omicron may change the game, it may not. But in the summer to now 11-13m people got the virus, 70-80% of them unvaccinated by choice. Would you rather they had zero immunity heading into the Omicron wave?
Don't take my word for it Chris Whitty said it in June. It was and remains the right strategy, everyone is going ti get COVID. Lockdowns and NPIs displace infections, but now the vaccine cavalry is already here, last winter it wasn't so displacement of 1000 infections was ~9.5 lives saved. Today displacement of infections will save close to zero lives, anyone who wants to be can get vaccinated. I walked into a pharmacy with my wife yesterday and we both got our boosters.
Again and again, the only game in town is vaccines. Lockdowns will do nothing because the moment we unlock the virus will be back. Infecting all those same idiots who refused the vaccine. Lockdown to save people who refused the vaccine is immoral, better to tell them to die at home.
The reality is that those who are calling for lockdowns are looking for a legislative safety blanket where none exists.
It has been my view throughout that it is not the role of the state to protect people from a virus. Measures to fundamentally restrict the liberties of e.g. children to 'protect' the very elderly and vulnerable are not IMO morally justified at the current CFR. Excessive safetyism is not a road I want the state to go down.
I am very proud to see so many Tory 'rebel' MPs standing up for liberty today. I would vote exactly the same way.
So I read, I am a foaming lockdown forever advocate. And yet I said days ago I would also vote against. We need measures to sustain businesses who get screwed by the shutdown being caused by Omicron running rampant. Not half-measures and excuses.
We need to see MPs back reviewing the latest data and proposals as they come out - instead Javid is proposing another enabling act where Peppa will rule by decree through the Christmas recess.
Well our return to the office which was scheduled for Monday the 7th of February, has once more been postponed.
Not until after Easter is the latest marker.
Am I ever going to be in the same office as my staff again?
Why are they so prescriptive? Sensible approach is to leave it up to the staff whether they go in or not until things are clearer. Sometimes it’s helpful to be in the office - indeed I’m heading into mine right now.
H&S - as my wife's company states - only people who need to be in the office for work or mental health reasons can currently work from the office.
Why would anyone go into the office if not for work? I’m prepared to believe that some might make a special trip purely to shag the caretaker, but am willing to wager that they are a niche group at best.
It's the nature / requirements of their jobs rather than anything else.
"The country will face an “exit wave” of coronavirus infections whenever restrictions are lifted, England’s chief medical officer has said."
DEMONSTRABLY AN ABUSE OF THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
If we had seen cases rise and fall then fine. But we didn't. Cases rose. And with some variations at the top stayed largely the same. We didn't see the dropping away as we exit that wave. Its just stayed high permanently.
We did see them fall.
Because in the first phase schools were closed, in the second the schools were reopened.
Unless you have come to some perverted belief that schools don't affect transmission? Is that your claim now?
Lol
Covid cases 17th May 2,220 (7 day average). Then after we made changes a big spike and the pogoing highs and lows around the new baseline.
When you say "we did see them fall" it was to 25,722, a mere 11.5x higher than the start. And then up and up and up.
You are being so insane now, May was during restrictions, why the hell would it have to fall beneath the figure that is only achievable with restrictions? What an absurd suggestion (!)
Are you so naive and so unwilling to be realistic now that you can't tell the difference between transmission with schools closed and transmission with schools open now?
16 July 47,970.4 13 September 28,540.4
So the 7 day average halved until the schools went back, that's one wave.
You seem to be in utter denial. First you want us to exit the virus, then you want cases to fall below what they were when we were in lockdown. You just clearly haven't grasped the severity of reality have you?
You're getting irate at others because you're in complete denial.
More belly laughs at my end - this is great! Had it dropped to 28k and kept falling then that would have been great! Instead that was the new floor and then we saw an ever-increasing level of new floors. 28k. 33k, now 51k.
You said "We did see them fall. Because in the first phase schools were closed, in the second the schools were reopened." Yes. And then they went up again. And up some more. And some more.
We replaced the 2k cases a day with mask restrictions with a very best 28k a day and then up and up. If an ever-increasing number of cases is us exiting having cases then black truly is white.
Do keep it up, you're as funny as HYUFD foaming on about Toryism.
Why would it keep falling? Schools reopened! Then it became winter.
You are utterly delusional. Had we not had the exit wave we would have seen exponential growth with schools open, no restrictions and winter. To keep levels flat, while circumstances are getting worse, is proof that the wave has happened.
I'm not an expert on waves, but I don't think they're supposed to peak, and then just keep going at the level of the peak indefinitely.
One reason waves in the water form the pattern they do is the ground level is rising which causes the water to rise too.
In the UK since lifting lockdown the ground level for Covid's spread has been rising: Schools reopened, summer ended, winter began. And yet despite the ground level rising, the cases have been flat. Why?
The only reason the cases have been flat despite the higher ground level, is that the prior wave had just happened.
Imagine if it was the other way around, starting in winter with schools open, then going into spring, then summer, then the schools closed over summer holidays - if cases were flat over that, then you'd be confused why.
To have cases flat, while the ground level to boost Covid is getting higher, is proof that the wave had happened, not proof it didn't.
It's proof that the wave isn't over yet, which is proof that the (presumed) prior belief that it would crest and then break was wrong. In short, it is now conclusively proven to be Not a Wave.
Look at it another way: six months ago, was anyone predicting an "exit wave" that got stuck around 50k cases reported per day for months on end, if restrictions lifted?
"The country will face an “exit wave” of coronavirus infections whenever restrictions are lifted, England’s chief medical officer has said."
DEMONSTRABLY AN ABUSE OF THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
If we had seen cases rise and fall then fine. But we didn't. Cases rose. And with some variations at the top stayed largely the same. We didn't see the dropping away as we exit that wave. Its just stayed high permanently.
We did see them fall.
Because in the first phase schools were closed, in the second the schools were reopened.
Unless you have come to some perverted belief that schools don't affect transmission? Is that your claim now?
Lol
Covid cases 17th May 2,220 (7 day average). Then after we made changes a big spike and the pogoing highs and lows around the new baseline.
When you say "we did see them fall" it was to 25,722, a mere 11.5x higher than the start. And then up and up and up.
You are being so insane now, May was during restrictions, why the hell would it have to fall beneath the figure that is only achievable with restrictions? What an absurd suggestion (!)
Are you so naive and so unwilling to be realistic now that you can't tell the difference between transmission with schools closed and transmission with schools open now?
16 July 47,970.4 13 September 28,540.4
So the 7 day average halved until the schools went back, that's one wave.
You seem to be in utter denial. First you want us to exit the virus, then you want cases to fall below what they were when we were in lockdown. You just clearly haven't grasped the severity of reality have you?
You're getting irate at others because you're in complete denial.
More belly laughs at my end - this is great! Had it dropped to 28k and kept falling then that would have been great! Instead that was the new floor and then we saw an ever-increasing level of new floors. 28k. 33k, now 51k.
You said "We did see them fall. Because in the first phase schools were closed, in the second the schools were reopened." Yes. And then they went up again. And up some more. And some more.
We replaced the 2k cases a day with mask restrictions with a very best 28k a day and then up and up. If an ever-increasing number of cases is us exiting having cases then black truly is white.
Do keep it up, you're as funny as HYUFD foaming on about Toryism.
"We replaced the 2k cases a day with mask restrictions"
You dishonest twerp. You took the data from when we were in Step 2 of lockdown.
In case you've forgotten by now, Step 2 was when it was illegal for restaurants to be open indoors. Childrens play areas, hotels, sport for fans etc were all closed. It was illegal to be within 2 metres of other people. It was illegal to go into other people's houses.
So yes if you want to have zero integrity, take lockdown Step 2 as your baseline and as "mask restrictions".
"Exiting Covid" and considering legal lockdown as your baseline for "mask restrictions" alone . . . you need to take a time out. You have thrown all your integrity away.
He's a moron, he clearly thinks COVID can be defeated but doesn't want to out himself as a moron.
Um, RP is actually using things you've said in the past against you because in theory the exit wave from July onwards should have resulted in us hitting herd immunity by now - at which point infection numbers should have dropped because there would be very few people left to be infected.
And it's clear that that has happened although it's equally clear that until Omicron arrived R0 was at a steady level of about 1.
Pre-Omicron we had hit herd immunity which is why exponential growth wasn't occurring, without any restrictions and with a worsening environment (schools reopening, summer ending, winter starting etc)
R0 of 1 or below is herd immunity.
300,000 cases a week doesn't sound to me anything like herd immunity.
Still got the debate on in the background. So good to see Wes Streeting on the opposition front bench. So much better than his predecessor even if I disagree with some of the stuff he is saying.
I have to say in two years "exit the virus" is surely up there among the most stupid things said about it. That there's anyone who believes that is worrying and the government Comms needs to be updated to warn everyone that we're all going to get it and the best way to decrease likelihood of symptoms is to get vaccinated. There is no other game in town.
I agree! So why do you keep saying we had an exit wave?
Because we did? Immunity and vaccine coverage in the UK is the highest in the world. Despite all of the doom rhetoric from the scientists we're not in any lockdown while most of Europe has got severe restrictions on going anywhere. Omicron may change the game, it may not. But in the summer to now 11-13m people got the virus, 70-80% of them unvaccinated by choice. Would you rather they had zero immunity heading into the Omicron wave?
Don't take my word for it Chris Whitty said it in June. It was and remains the right strategy, everyone is going ti get COVID. Lockdowns and NPIs displace infections, but now the vaccine cavalry is already here, last winter it wasn't so displacement of 1000 infections was ~9.5 lives saved. Today displacement of infections will save close to zero lives, anyone who wants to be can get vaccinated. I walked into a pharmacy with my wife yesterday and we both got our boosters.
Again and again, the only game in town is vaccines. Lockdowns will do nothing because the moment we unlock the virus will be back. Infecting all those same idiots who refused the vaccine. Lockdown to save people who refused the vaccine is immoral, better to tell them to die at home.
The reality is that those who are calling for lockdowns are looking for a legislative safety blanket where none exists.
It has been my view throughout that it is not the role of the state to protect people from a virus. Measures to fundamentally restrict the liberties of e.g. children to 'protect' the very elderly and vulnerable are not IMO morally justified at the current CFR. Excessive safetyism is not a road I want the state to go down.
I am very proud to see so many Tory 'rebel' MPs standing up for liberty today. I would vote exactly the same way.
So I read, I am a foaming lockdown forever advocate. And yet I said days ago I would also vote against. We need measures to sustain businesses who get screwed by the shutdown being caused by Omicron running rampant. Not half-measures and excuses.
We need to see MPs back reviewing the latest data and proposals as they come out - instead Javid is proposing another enabling act where Peppa will rule by decree through the Christmas recess.
Unacceptable.
Or let those of us who want to continue as is, continue.
I'm in my early 30s. As are most of my mates. All of us just want to crack on.
Well our return to the office which was scheduled for Monday the 7th of February, has once more been postponed.
Not until after Easter is the latest marker.
Am I ever going to be in the same office as my staff again?
Why are they so prescriptive? Sensible approach is to leave it up to the staff whether they go in or not until things are clearer. Sometimes it’s helpful to be in the office - indeed I’m heading into mine right now.
H&S - as my wife's company states - only people who need to be in the office for work or mental health reasons can currently work from the office.
Why would anyone go into the office if not for work? I’m prepared to believe that some might make a special trip purely to shag the caretaker, but am willing to wager that they are a niche group at best.
It's the nature / requirements of their jobs rather than anything else.
A chap in my team is coming to the office to study - he is a recent grad, doing multiple career related courses, and has zero quiet space in his flat share. The office is mostly empty, silent, spacious, he has a desk, computer and chair, printer and he gets free high quality coffee from the coffee machine.
Still got the debate on in the background. So good to see Wes Streeting on the opposition front bench. So much better than his predecessor even if I disagree with some of the stuff he is saying.
I assume you would be voting with the conservative rebels if you had a vote
"The country will face an “exit wave” of coronavirus infections whenever restrictions are lifted, England’s chief medical officer has said."
DEMONSTRABLY AN ABUSE OF THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
If we had seen cases rise and fall then fine. But we didn't. Cases rose. And with some variations at the top stayed largely the same. We didn't see the dropping away as we exit that wave. Its just stayed high permanently.
We did see them fall.
Because in the first phase schools were closed, in the second the schools were reopened.
Unless you have come to some perverted belief that schools don't affect transmission? Is that your claim now?
Lol
Covid cases 17th May 2,220 (7 day average). Then after we made changes a big spike and the pogoing highs and lows around the new baseline.
When you say "we did see them fall" it was to 25,722, a mere 11.5x higher than the start. And then up and up and up.
You are being so insane now, May was during restrictions, why the hell would it have to fall beneath the figure that is only achievable with restrictions? What an absurd suggestion (!)
Are you so naive and so unwilling to be realistic now that you can't tell the difference between transmission with schools closed and transmission with schools open now?
16 July 47,970.4 13 September 28,540.4
So the 7 day average halved until the schools went back, that's one wave.
You seem to be in utter denial. First you want us to exit the virus, then you want cases to fall below what they were when we were in lockdown. You just clearly haven't grasped the severity of reality have you?
You're getting irate at others because you're in complete denial.
More belly laughs at my end - this is great! Had it dropped to 28k and kept falling then that would have been great! Instead that was the new floor and then we saw an ever-increasing level of new floors. 28k. 33k, now 51k.
You said "We did see them fall. Because in the first phase schools were closed, in the second the schools were reopened." Yes. And then they went up again. And up some more. And some more.
We replaced the 2k cases a day with mask restrictions with a very best 28k a day and then up and up. If an ever-increasing number of cases is us exiting having cases then black truly is white.
Do keep it up, you're as funny as HYUFD foaming on about Toryism.
"We replaced the 2k cases a day with mask restrictions"
You dishonest twerp. You took the data from when we were in Step 2 of lockdown.
In case you've forgotten by now, Step 2 was when it was illegal for restaurants to be open indoors. Childrens play areas, hotels, sport for fans etc were all closed. It was illegal to be within 2 metres of other people. It was illegal to go into other people's houses.
So yes if you want to have zero integrity, take lockdown Step 2 as your baseline and as "mask restrictions".
"Exiting Covid" and considering legal lockdown as your baseline for "mask restrictions" alone . . . you need to take a time out. You have thrown all your integrity away.
He's a moron, he clearly thinks COVID can be defeated but doesn't want to out himself as a moron.
Um, RP is actually using things you've said in the past against you because in theory the exit wave from July onwards should have resulted in us hitting herd immunity by now - at which point infection numbers should have dropped because there would be very few people left to be infected.
And it's clear that that has happened although it's equally clear that until Omicron arrived R0 was at a steady level of about 1.
But that's exit to endemicity. Exactly what we need to do with COVID. It's what Chris Whitty outlined in the summer. The alternative is actually scary, we kept restrictions, kept cases down to under 5k, only 1-2m get it over the summer and autumn and bang, Omicron arrives with 8-10m people having no vaccine or natural immunity. Even if it hospitalised at a third of the rate of Delta, that's still means 400k-500k unvaccinated people needing hospital treatment in a very short space of time. Natural immunity in that cohort will cut that by 80%. Some European countries who dodged their exit waves are in for a really tough winter, they have got millions and millions of people with zero immunity.
It occurs to me that NHS might collapse whatever we do. It doesn’t matter if everyone is entombed in personal tungsten cave-cubicles, we will still get it, 40% of us will get it bad enough to take a week off work maybe 5% will go to hospital and 1% die?
That’s enough to totally fuck the economy. To stop everything. All work. No?
Unless you get wartime recruitment of the well-enough-old, young and recovered to staff shops and drive buses and the like, and what if they then get Delta to go down with it again? There are rumours you can get both.
How does a society function with this level of illness?
AND WHO WILL DIG THE PLAGUE PITS?
Pure anecdata but I know many people who've tested positive over the last two or three days and all are reporting mild cold-like symptoms. Sore throats, sniffles, but nothing to stop them doing their day jobs (from home). So best guess is we're all going to be OK.
Big question from me though is, even if we got lucky this time, what if the next mutation is just as contagious and vaccine-evading, but far more deadly?
When we say this is endemic, do we mean we're just waiting for a variant to come along that will finish most of us all off, be it next year or a few years down the line?
Yes indeed. However. Can nurses, delivery drivers, factory workers work from home? If not, are they capable of working on site?
"The country will face an “exit wave” of coronavirus infections whenever restrictions are lifted, England’s chief medical officer has said."
DEMONSTRABLY AN ABUSE OF THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
If we had seen cases rise and fall then fine. But we didn't. Cases rose. And with some variations at the top stayed largely the same. We didn't see the dropping away as we exit that wave. Its just stayed high permanently.
We did see them fall.
Because in the first phase schools were closed, in the second the schools were reopened.
Unless you have come to some perverted belief that schools don't affect transmission? Is that your claim now?
Lol
Covid cases 17th May 2,220 (7 day average). Then after we made changes a big spike and the pogoing highs and lows around the new baseline.
When you say "we did see them fall" it was to 25,722, a mere 11.5x higher than the start. And then up and up and up.
You are being so insane now, May was during restrictions, why the hell would it have to fall beneath the figure that is only achievable with restrictions? What an absurd suggestion (!)
Are you so naive and so unwilling to be realistic now that you can't tell the difference between transmission with schools closed and transmission with schools open now?
16 July 47,970.4 13 September 28,540.4
So the 7 day average halved until the schools went back, that's one wave.
You seem to be in utter denial. First you want us to exit the virus, then you want cases to fall below what they were when we were in lockdown. You just clearly haven't grasped the severity of reality have you?
You're getting irate at others because you're in complete denial.
More belly laughs at my end - this is great! Had it dropped to 28k and kept falling then that would have been great! Instead that was the new floor and then we saw an ever-increasing level of new floors. 28k. 33k, now 51k.
You said "We did see them fall. Because in the first phase schools were closed, in the second the schools were reopened." Yes. And then they went up again. And up some more. And some more.
We replaced the 2k cases a day with mask restrictions with a very best 28k a day and then up and up. If an ever-increasing number of cases is us exiting having cases then black truly is white.
Do keep it up, you're as funny as HYUFD foaming on about Toryism.
"We replaced the 2k cases a day with mask restrictions"
You dishonest twerp. You took the data from when we were in Step 2 of lockdown.
In case you've forgotten by now, Step 2 was when it was illegal for restaurants to be open indoors. Childrens play areas, hotels, sport for fans etc were all closed. It was illegal to be within 2 metres of other people. It was illegal to go into other people's houses.
So yes if you want to have zero integrity, take lockdown Step 2 as your baseline and as "mask restrictions".
"Exiting Covid" and considering legal lockdown as your baseline for "mask restrictions" alone . . . you need to take a time out. You have thrown all your integrity away.
He's a moron, he clearly thinks COVID can be defeated but doesn't want to out himself as a moron.
Um, RP is actually using things you've said in the past against you because in theory the exit wave from July onwards should have resulted in us hitting herd immunity by now - at which point infection numbers should have dropped because there would be very few people left to be infected.
And it's clear that that has happened although it's equally clear that until Omicron arrived R0 was at a steady level of about 1.
Pre-Omicron we had hit herd immunity which is why exponential growth wasn't occurring, without any restrictions and with a worsening environment (schools reopening, summer ending, winter starting etc)
R0 of 1 or below is herd immunity.
300,000 cases a week doesn't sound to me anything like herd immunity.
Why not?
This was an exponential disease, now it isn't, that is herd immunity achieved.
If herd immunity wasn't achieved then 300k one week would have been 600k the next. 300k one week, then 300k the next is herd immunity stable state as opposed to exponential growth.
Pure anecdata but I know many people who've tested positive over the last two or three days and all are reporting mild cold-like symptoms. Sore throats, sniffles, but nothing to stop them doing their day jobs (from home). So best guess is we're all going to be OK.
Big question from me though is, even if we got lucky this time, what if the next mutation is just as contagious and vaccine-evading, but far more deadly?
When we say this is endemic, do we mean we're just waiting for a variant to come along that will finish most of us all off, be it next year or a few years down the line?
In the SAGE long-term outlook it specifically mentioned higher morbidity and SARS and MERS as examples, it was in the same bracket of probability as the Omicron mutations.
Now we would be extraordinarily unlucky to see something like SARS emerge anytime soon, but with a very high number of cases the possibility of a more dangerous variant is a real one, and one that we should prepare for now.
I have to say in two years "exit the virus" is surely up there among the most stupid things said about it. That there's anyone who believes that is worrying and the government Comms needs to be updated to warn everyone that we're all going to get it and the best way to decrease likelihood of symptoms is to get vaccinated. There is no other game in town.
I agree! So why do you keep saying we had an exit wave?
Because we did? Immunity and vaccine coverage in the UK is the highest in the world. Despite all of the doom rhetoric from the scientists we're not in any lockdown while most of Europe has got severe restrictions on going anywhere. Omicron may change the game, it may not. But in the summer to now 11-13m people got the virus, 70-80% of them unvaccinated by choice. Would you rather they had zero immunity heading into the Omicron wave?
Don't take my word for it Chris Whitty said it in June. It was and remains the right strategy, everyone is going ti get COVID. Lockdowns and NPIs displace infections, but now the vaccine cavalry is already here, last winter it wasn't so displacement of 1000 infections was ~9.5 lives saved. Today displacement of infections will save close to zero lives, anyone who wants to be can get vaccinated. I walked into a pharmacy with my wife yesterday and we both got our boosters.
Again and again, the only game in town is vaccines. Lockdowns will do nothing because the moment we unlock the virus will be back. Infecting all those same idiots who refused the vaccine. Lockdown to save people who refused the vaccine is immoral, better to tell them to die at home.
The reality is that those who are calling for lockdowns are looking for a legislative safety blanket where none exists.
It has been my view throughout that it is not the role of the state to protect people from a virus. Measures to fundamentally restrict the liberties of e.g. children to 'protect' the very elderly and vulnerable are not IMO morally justified at the current CFR. Excessive safetyism is not a road I want the state to go down.
I am very proud to see so many Tory 'rebel' MPs standing up for liberty today. I would vote exactly the same way.
So I read, I am a foaming lockdown forever advocate. And yet I said days ago I would also vote against. We need measures to sustain businesses who get screwed by the shutdown being caused by Omicron running rampant. Not half-measures and excuses.
We need to see MPs back reviewing the latest data and proposals as they come out - instead Javid is proposing another enabling act where Peppa will rule by decree through the Christmas recess.
Unacceptable.
Or let those of us who want to continue as is, continue.
I'm in my early 30s. As are most of my mates. All of us just want to crack on.
Could you make it any more obvious you think you're invulnerable and you couldn't give a damn about anyone else?
18 months. What do we think? I'm not sure why the driver wasn't prosecuted for attempted murder.
Violent criminal who is "one of us." Not "one of them." Aside from the sentence. 3 year ban? For a man prepared to use his vehicle as a weapon? If it had been a gun, would he ever be allowed one again? I think not.
A 74 year old engineer is "one of us?"
I think this is another case of "With cars, it is completely different" - it's as if there is a special sentencing section for "done with a car"
Boris meeting a specially convened meeting of the 1922 Committee at 5.30
'We are demanding you consider your position Prime Minister' is all that needs saying
There need 50% of tory MPs willing to vote No Confidence in him. Until everyone is sure that's the end result of the vote no-one is going to call it after the last attempt.
18 months. What do we think? I'm not sure why the driver wasn't prosecuted for attempted murder.
Violent criminal who is "one of us." Not "one of them." Aside from the sentence. 3 year ban? For a man prepared to use his vehicle as a weapon? If it had been a gun, would he ever be allowed one again? I think not.
A 74 year old engineer is "one of us?"
I think this is another case of "With cars, it is completely different" - it's as if there is a special sentencing section for "done with a car"
Quite.
You would have thought that the concept of a car as a weapon had been demonstrated well enough recently.
Why is it OK to terrorise cyclists but not pedestrians?
"The country will face an “exit wave” of coronavirus infections whenever restrictions are lifted, England’s chief medical officer has said."
DEMONSTRABLY AN ABUSE OF THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
If we had seen cases rise and fall then fine. But we didn't. Cases rose. And with some variations at the top stayed largely the same. We didn't see the dropping away as we exit that wave. Its just stayed high permanently.
We did see them fall.
Because in the first phase schools were closed, in the second the schools were reopened.
Unless you have come to some perverted belief that schools don't affect transmission? Is that your claim now?
Lol
Covid cases 17th May 2,220 (7 day average). Then after we made changes a big spike and the pogoing highs and lows around the new baseline.
When you say "we did see them fall" it was to 25,722, a mere 11.5x higher than the start. And then up and up and up.
Do you remember September when people on here were saying "it's going down, we've reached herd immunity!"?
Flatlander just said "Delta was almost done". When were continuing to see c. 40k new cases every day months and months after the start of the "exit wave".
If thats done I'd hate to see not done.
Poor.
What you really needed to do was to collect the usage of the phrases, per day, and plot some graphs. With error bars.
Then you could have published a scientific paper on "Peak Peak".
Boris meeting a specially convened meeting of the 1922 Committee at 5.30
'We are demanding you consider your position Prime Minister' is all that needs saying
There need 50% of tory MPs willing to vote No Confidence in him. Until everyone is sure that's the end result of the vote no-one is going to call it after the last attempt.
Well our return to the office which was scheduled for Monday the 7th of February, has once more been postponed.
Not until after Easter is the latest marker.
Am I ever going to be in the same office as my staff again?
Why are they so prescriptive? Sensible approach is to leave it up to the staff whether they go in or not until things are clearer. Sometimes it’s helpful to be in the office - indeed I’m heading into mine right now.
H&S - as my wife's company states - only people who need to be in the office for work or mental health reasons can currently work from the office.
Why would anyone go into the office if not for work? I’m prepared to believe that some might make a special trip purely to shag the caretaker, but am willing to wager that they are a niche group at best.
It's the nature / requirements of their jobs rather than anything else.
A chap in my team is coming to the office to study - he is a recent grad, doing multiple career related courses, and has zero quiet space in his flat share. The office is mostly empty, silent, spacious, he has a desk, computer and chair, printer and he gets free high quality coffee from the coffee machine.
Can fully understand that - I dislike the fact my office is on my wife's way to the kitchen so she wonders in when I'm trying to concentrate or asks who were you on the phone to.
I have to say in two years "exit the virus" is surely up there among the most stupid things said about it. That there's anyone who believes that is worrying and the government Comms needs to be updated to warn everyone that we're all going to get it and the best way to decrease likelihood of symptoms is to get vaccinated. There is no other game in town.
I agree! So why do you keep saying we had an exit wave?
Because we did? Immunity and vaccine coverage in the UK is the highest in the world. Despite all of the doom rhetoric from the scientists we're not in any lockdown while most of Europe has got severe restrictions on going anywhere. Omicron may change the game, it may not. But in the summer to now 11-13m people got the virus, 70-80% of them unvaccinated by choice. Would you rather they had zero immunity heading into the Omicron wave?
Don't take my word for it Chris Whitty said it in June. It was and remains the right strategy, everyone is going ti get COVID. Lockdowns and NPIs displace infections, but now the vaccine cavalry is already here, last winter it wasn't so displacement of 1000 infections was ~9.5 lives saved. Today displacement of infections will save close to zero lives, anyone who wants to be can get vaccinated. I walked into a pharmacy with my wife yesterday and we both got our boosters.
Again and again, the only game in town is vaccines. Lockdowns will do nothing because the moment we unlock the virus will be back. Infecting all those same idiots who refused the vaccine. Lockdown to save people who refused the vaccine is immoral, better to tell them to die at home.
The reality is that those who are calling for lockdowns are looking for a legislative safety blanket where none exists.
It has been my view throughout that it is not the role of the state to protect people from a virus. Measures to fundamentally restrict the liberties of e.g. children to 'protect' the very elderly and vulnerable are not IMO morally justified at the current CFR. Excessive safetyism is not a road I want the state to go down.
I am very proud to see so many Tory 'rebel' MPs standing up for liberty today. I would vote exactly the same way.
So I read, I am a foaming lockdown forever advocate. And yet I said days ago I would also vote against. We need measures to sustain businesses who get screwed by the shutdown being caused by Omicron running rampant. Not half-measures and excuses.
We need to see MPs back reviewing the latest data and proposals as they come out - instead Javid is proposing another enabling act where Peppa will rule by decree through the Christmas recess.
Unacceptable.
Or let those of us who want to continue as is, continue.
I'm in my early 30s. As are most of my mates. All of us just want to crack on.
Could you make it any more obvious you think you're invulnerable and you couldn't give a damn about anyone else?
Alternatively, he is willing to accept the risks that are part of life and is taking responsibility for his own health.
I have to say in two years "exit the virus" is surely up there among the most stupid things said about it. That there's anyone who believes that is worrying and the government Comms needs to be updated to warn everyone that we're all going to get it and the best way to decrease likelihood of symptoms is to get vaccinated. There is no other game in town.
I agree! So why do you keep saying we had an exit wave?
Because we did? Immunity and vaccine coverage in the UK is the highest in the world. Despite all of the doom rhetoric from the scientists we're not in any lockdown while most of Europe has got severe restrictions on going anywhere. Omicron may change the game, it may not. But in the summer to now 11-13m people got the virus, 70-80% of them unvaccinated by choice. Would you rather they had zero immunity heading into the Omicron wave?
Don't take my word for it Chris Whitty said it in June. It was and remains the right strategy, everyone is going ti get COVID. Lockdowns and NPIs displace infections, but now the vaccine cavalry is already here, last winter it wasn't so displacement of 1000 infections was ~9.5 lives saved. Today displacement of infections will save close to zero lives, anyone who wants to be can get vaccinated. I walked into a pharmacy with my wife yesterday and we both got our boosters.
Again and again, the only game in town is vaccines. Lockdowns will do nothing because the moment we unlock the virus will be back. Infecting all those same idiots who refused the vaccine. Lockdown to save people who refused the vaccine is immoral, better to tell them to die at home.
The reality is that those who are calling for lockdowns are looking for a legislative safety blanket where none exists.
It has been my view throughout that it is not the role of the state to protect people from a virus. Measures to fundamentally restrict the liberties of e.g. children to 'protect' the very elderly and vulnerable are not IMO morally justified at the current CFR. Excessive safetyism is not a road I want the state to go down.
I am very proud to see so many Tory 'rebel' MPs standing up for liberty today. I would vote exactly the same way.
So I read, I am a foaming lockdown forever advocate. And yet I said days ago I would also vote against. We need measures to sustain businesses who get screwed by the shutdown being caused by Omicron running rampant. Not half-measures and excuses.
We need to see MPs back reviewing the latest data and proposals as they come out - instead Javid is proposing another enabling act where Peppa will rule by decree through the Christmas recess.
Unacceptable.
Or let those of us who want to continue as is, continue.
I'm in my early 30s. As are most of my mates. All of us just want to crack on.
Could you make it any more obvious you think you're invulnerable and you couldn't give a damn about anyone else?
Non-sequitur, Chrissy boy. What if @Mortimer wanted to meet 20 like-minded people for a booze up at home or in a hospitality venue. What has anyone else got to do with it.
Plus you owe me - a) terms of a bet that Omicron cases will reach 800k/day; and b) what you would do over the next 1-18 months.
"The country will face an “exit wave” of coronavirus infections whenever restrictions are lifted, England’s chief medical officer has said."
DEMONSTRABLY AN ABUSE OF THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
If we had seen cases rise and fall then fine. But we didn't. Cases rose. And with some variations at the top stayed largely the same. We didn't see the dropping away as we exit that wave. Its just stayed high permanently.
We did see them fall.
Because in the first phase schools were closed, in the second the schools were reopened.
Unless you have come to some perverted belief that schools don't affect transmission? Is that your claim now?
Lol
Covid cases 17th May 2,220 (7 day average). Then after we made changes a big spike and the pogoing highs and lows around the new baseline.
When you say "we did see them fall" it was to 25,722, a mere 11.5x higher than the start. And then up and up and up.
You are being so insane now, May was during restrictions, why the hell would it have to fall beneath the figure that is only achievable with restrictions? What an absurd suggestion (!)
Are you so naive and so unwilling to be realistic now that you can't tell the difference between transmission with schools closed and transmission with schools open now?
16 July 47,970.4 13 September 28,540.4
So the 7 day average halved until the schools went back, that's one wave.
You seem to be in utter denial. First you want us to exit the virus, then you want cases to fall below what they were when we were in lockdown. You just clearly haven't grasped the severity of reality have you?
You're getting irate at others because you're in complete denial.
More belly laughs at my end - this is great! Had it dropped to 28k and kept falling then that would have been great! Instead that was the new floor and then we saw an ever-increasing level of new floors. 28k. 33k, now 51k.
You said "We did see them fall. Because in the first phase schools were closed, in the second the schools were reopened." Yes. And then they went up again. And up some more. And some more.
We replaced the 2k cases a day with mask restrictions with a very best 28k a day and then up and up. If an ever-increasing number of cases is us exiting having cases then black truly is white.
Do keep it up, you're as funny as HYUFD foaming on about Toryism.
Why would it keep falling? Schools reopened! Then it became winter.
You are utterly delusional. Had we not had the exit wave we would have seen exponential growth with schools open, no restrictions and winter. To keep levels flat, while circumstances are getting worse, is proof that the wave has happened.
I'm not an expert on waves, but I don't think they're supposed to peak, and then just keep going at the level of the peak indefinitely.
One reason waves in the water form the pattern they do is the ground level is rising which causes the water to rise too.
In the UK since lifting lockdown the ground level for Covid's spread has been rising: Schools reopened, summer ended, winter began. And yet despite the ground level rising, the cases have been flat. Why?
The only reason the cases have been flat despite the higher ground level, is that the prior wave had just happened.
Imagine if it was the other way around, starting in winter with schools open, then going into spring, then summer, then the schools closed over summer holidays - if cases were flat over that, then you'd be confused why.
To have cases flat, while the ground level to boost Covid is getting higher, is proof that the wave had happened, not proof it didn't.
It's proof that the wave isn't over yet, which is proof that the (presumed) prior belief that it would crest and then break was wrong. In short, it is now conclusively proven to be Not a Wave.
Look at it another way: six months ago, was anyone predicting an "exit wave" that got stuck around 50k cases reported per day for months on end, if restrictions lifted?
Waves is funny things. One never knows, the dynamics muight have generatyed a soliton which moves forward as quickly as we do in time: see this ship in a canal 2:30 ON.
"The country will face an “exit wave” of coronavirus infections whenever restrictions are lifted, England’s chief medical officer has said."
DEMONSTRABLY AN ABUSE OF THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
If we had seen cases rise and fall then fine. But we didn't. Cases rose. And with some variations at the top stayed largely the same. We didn't see the dropping away as we exit that wave. Its just stayed high permanently.
We did see them fall.
Because in the first phase schools were closed, in the second the schools were reopened.
Unless you have come to some perverted belief that schools don't affect transmission? Is that your claim now?
Lol
Covid cases 17th May 2,220 (7 day average). Then after we made changes a big spike and the pogoing highs and lows around the new baseline.
When you say "we did see them fall" it was to 25,722, a mere 11.5x higher than the start. And then up and up and up.
You are being so insane now, May was during restrictions, why the hell would it have to fall beneath the figure that is only achievable with restrictions? What an absurd suggestion (!)
Are you so naive and so unwilling to be realistic now that you can't tell the difference between transmission with schools closed and transmission with schools open now?
16 July 47,970.4 13 September 28,540.4
So the 7 day average halved until the schools went back, that's one wave.
You seem to be in utter denial. First you want us to exit the virus, then you want cases to fall below what they were when we were in lockdown. You just clearly haven't grasped the severity of reality have you?
You're getting irate at others because you're in complete denial.
More belly laughs at my end - this is great! Had it dropped to 28k and kept falling then that would have been great! Instead that was the new floor and then we saw an ever-increasing level of new floors. 28k. 33k, now 51k.
You said "We did see them fall. Because in the first phase schools were closed, in the second the schools were reopened." Yes. And then they went up again. And up some more. And some more.
We replaced the 2k cases a day with mask restrictions with a very best 28k a day and then up and up. If an ever-increasing number of cases is us exiting having cases then black truly is white.
Do keep it up, you're as funny as HYUFD foaming on about Toryism.
Why would it keep falling? Schools reopened! Then it became winter.
You are utterly delusional. Had we not had the exit wave we would have seen exponential growth with schools open, no restrictions and winter. To keep levels flat, while circumstances are getting worse, is proof that the wave has happened.
I'm not an expert on waves, but I don't think they're supposed to peak, and then just keep going at the level of the peak indefinitely.
One reason waves in the water form the pattern they do is the ground level is rising which causes the water to rise too.
In the UK since lifting lockdown the ground level for Covid's spread has been rising: Schools reopened, summer ended, winter began. And yet despite the ground level rising, the cases have been flat. Why?
The only reason the cases have been flat despite the higher ground level, is that the prior wave had just happened.
Imagine if it was the other way around, starting in winter with schools open, then going into spring, then summer, then the schools closed over summer holidays - if cases were flat over that, then you'd be confused why.
To have cases flat, while the ground level to boost Covid is getting higher, is proof that the wave had happened, not proof it didn't.
It's proof that the wave isn't over yet, which is proof that the (presumed) prior belief that it would crest and then break was wrong. In short, it is now conclusively proven to be Not a Wave.
Look at it another way: six months ago, was anyone predicting an "exit wave" that got stuck around 50k cases reported per day for months on end, if restrictions lifted?
Its proof the wave is over. Yes most predictions showed that the exit wave would end with a fairly stable state, the fact we ended with a stable state is proof the wave had happened.
The wave was supposed to be a spike up but that never happened in the way that was predicted, but once you reach stability that is post-wave.
Pure anecdata but I know many people who've tested positive over the last two or three days and all are reporting mild cold-like symptoms. Sore throats, sniffles, but nothing to stop them doing their day jobs (from home). So best guess is we're all going to be OK.
Big question from me though is, even if we got lucky this time, what if the next mutation is just as contagious and vaccine-evading, but far more deadly?
When we say this is endemic, do we mean we're just waiting for a variant to come along that will finish most of us all off, be it next year or a few years down the line?
In the SAGE long-term outlook it specifically mentioned higher morbidity and SARS and MERS as examples, it was in the same bracket of probability as the Omicron mutations.
Now we would be extraordinarily unlucky to see something like SARS emerge anytime soon, but with a very high number of cases the possibility of a more dangerous variant is a real one, and one that we should prepare for now.
Would any mutation to survive have to be more transmissible than Omicron?
"The country will face an “exit wave” of coronavirus infections whenever restrictions are lifted, England’s chief medical officer has said."
DEMONSTRABLY AN ABUSE OF THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
If we had seen cases rise and fall then fine. But we didn't. Cases rose. And with some variations at the top stayed largely the same. We didn't see the dropping away as we exit that wave. Its just stayed high permanently.
We did see them fall.
Because in the first phase schools were closed, in the second the schools were reopened.
Unless you have come to some perverted belief that schools don't affect transmission? Is that your claim now?
Lol
Covid cases 17th May 2,220 (7 day average). Then after we made changes a big spike and the pogoing highs and lows around the new baseline.
When you say "we did see them fall" it was to 25,722, a mere 11.5x higher than the start. And then up and up and up.
You are being so insane now, May was during restrictions, why the hell would it have to fall beneath the figure that is only achievable with restrictions? What an absurd suggestion (!)
Are you so naive and so unwilling to be realistic now that you can't tell the difference between transmission with schools closed and transmission with schools open now?
16 July 47,970.4 13 September 28,540.4
So the 7 day average halved until the schools went back, that's one wave.
You seem to be in utter denial. First you want us to exit the virus, then you want cases to fall below what they were when we were in lockdown. You just clearly haven't grasped the severity of reality have you?
You're getting irate at others because you're in complete denial.
More belly laughs at my end - this is great! Had it dropped to 28k and kept falling then that would have been great! Instead that was the new floor and then we saw an ever-increasing level of new floors. 28k. 33k, now 51k.
You said "We did see them fall. Because in the first phase schools were closed, in the second the schools were reopened." Yes. And then they went up again. And up some more. And some more.
We replaced the 2k cases a day with mask restrictions with a very best 28k a day and then up and up. If an ever-increasing number of cases is us exiting having cases then black truly is white.
Do keep it up, you're as funny as HYUFD foaming on about Toryism.
Why would it keep falling? Schools reopened! Then it became winter.
You are utterly delusional. Had we not had the exit wave we would have seen exponential growth with schools open, no restrictions and winter. To keep levels flat, while circumstances are getting worse, is proof that the wave has happened.
I'm not an expert on waves, but I don't think they're supposed to peak, and then just keep going at the level of the peak indefinitely.
One reason waves in the water form the pattern they do is the ground level is rising which causes the water to rise too.
In the UK since lifting lockdown the ground level for Covid's spread has been rising: Schools reopened, summer ended, winter began. And yet despite the ground level rising, the cases have been flat. Why?
The only reason the cases have been flat despite the higher ground level, is that the prior wave had just happened.
Imagine if it was the other way around, starting in winter with schools open, then going into spring, then summer, then the schools closed over summer holidays - if cases were flat over that, then you'd be confused why.
To have cases flat, while the ground level to boost Covid is getting higher, is proof that the wave had happened, not proof it didn't.
It's proof that the wave isn't over yet, which is proof that the (presumed) prior belief that it would crest and then break was wrong. In short, it is now conclusively proven to be Not a Wave.
Look at it another way: six months ago, was anyone predicting an "exit wave" that got stuck around 50k cases reported per day for months on end, if restrictions lifted?
Its proof the wave is over. Yes most predictions showed that the exit wave would end with a fairly stable state, the fact we ended with a stable state is proof the wave had happened.
The wave was supposed to be a spike up but that never happened in the way that was predicted, but once you reach stability that is post-wave.
Have a loo at my post just now for an example of a wave that is a steady state vbut is still mich higher than otherwise.
I have to say in two years "exit the virus" is surely up there among the most stupid things said about it. That there's anyone who believes that is worrying and the government Comms needs to be updated to warn everyone that we're all going to get it and the best way to decrease likelihood of symptoms is to get vaccinated. There is no other game in town.
I agree! So why do you keep saying we had an exit wave?
Because we did? Immunity and vaccine coverage in the UK is the highest in the world. Despite all of the doom rhetoric from the scientists we're not in any lockdown while most of Europe has got severe restrictions on going anywhere. Omicron may change the game, it may not. But in the summer to now 11-13m people got the virus, 70-80% of them unvaccinated by choice. Would you rather they had zero immunity heading into the Omicron wave?
Don't take my word for it Chris Whitty said it in June. It was and remains the right strategy, everyone is going ti get COVID. Lockdowns and NPIs displace infections, but now the vaccine cavalry is already here, last winter it wasn't so displacement of 1000 infections was ~9.5 lives saved. Today displacement of infections will save close to zero lives, anyone who wants to be can get vaccinated. I walked into a pharmacy with my wife yesterday and we both got our boosters.
Again and again, the only game in town is vaccines. Lockdowns will do nothing because the moment we unlock the virus will be back. Infecting all those same idiots who refused the vaccine. Lockdown to save people who refused the vaccine is immoral, better to tell them to die at home.
The reality is that those who are calling for lockdowns are looking for a legislative safety blanket where none exists.
It has been my view throughout that it is not the role of the state to protect people from a virus. Measures to fundamentally restrict the liberties of e.g. children to 'protect' the very elderly and vulnerable are not IMO morally justified at the current CFR. Excessive safetyism is not a road I want the state to go down.
I am very proud to see so many Tory 'rebel' MPs standing up for liberty today. I would vote exactly the same way.
So I read, I am a foaming lockdown forever advocate. And yet I said days ago I would also vote against. We need measures to sustain businesses who get screwed by the shutdown being caused by Omicron running rampant. Not half-measures and excuses.
We need to see MPs back reviewing the latest data and proposals as they come out - instead Javid is proposing another enabling act where Peppa will rule by decree through the Christmas recess.
Unacceptable.
Or let those of us who want to continue as is, continue.
I'm in my early 30s. As are most of my mates. All of us just want to crack on.
Could you make it any more obvious you think you're invulnerable and you couldn't give a damn about anyone else?
I'd rather give that impression than be seen to be hiding behind a sofa, not giving a damn about fundamental liberties.
I have to say in two years "exit the virus" is surely up there among the most stupid things said about it. That there's anyone who believes that is worrying and the government Comms needs to be updated to warn everyone that we're all going to get it and the best way to decrease likelihood of symptoms is to get vaccinated. There is no other game in town.
I agree! So why do you keep saying we had an exit wave?
Because we did? Immunity and vaccine coverage in the UK is the highest in the world. Despite all of the doom rhetoric from the scientists we're not in any lockdown while most of Europe has got severe restrictions on going anywhere. Omicron may change the game, it may not. But in the summer to now 11-13m people got the virus, 70-80% of them unvaccinated by choice. Would you rather they had zero immunity heading into the Omicron wave?
Don't take my word for it Chris Whitty said it in June. It was and remains the right strategy, everyone is going ti get COVID. Lockdowns and NPIs displace infections, but now the vaccine cavalry is already here, last winter it wasn't so displacement of 1000 infections was ~9.5 lives saved. Today displacement of infections will save close to zero lives, anyone who wants to be can get vaccinated. I walked into a pharmacy with my wife yesterday and we both got our boosters.
Again and again, the only game in town is vaccines. Lockdowns will do nothing because the moment we unlock the virus will be back. Infecting all those same idiots who refused the vaccine. Lockdown to save people who refused the vaccine is immoral, better to tell them to die at home.
The reality is that those who are calling for lockdowns are looking for a legislative safety blanket where none exists.
It has been my view throughout that it is not the role of the state to protect people from a virus. Measures to fundamentally restrict the liberties of e.g. children to 'protect' the very elderly and vulnerable are not IMO morally justified at the current CFR. Excessive safetyism is not a road I want the state to go down.
I am very proud to see so many Tory 'rebel' MPs standing up for liberty today. I would vote exactly the same way.
So I read, I am a foaming lockdown forever advocate. And yet I said days ago I would also vote against. We need measures to sustain businesses who get screwed by the shutdown being caused by Omicron running rampant. Not half-measures and excuses.
We need to see MPs back reviewing the latest data and proposals as they come out - instead Javid is proposing another enabling act where Peppa will rule by decree through the Christmas recess.
Unacceptable.
Or let those of us who want to continue as is, continue.
I'm in my early 30s. As are most of my mates. All of us just want to crack on.
If it is as bad as they say it is, you can't crack on. Because some of you will be sick with Omicron or having to isolate because live or work closely with someone who is sick.
But I don't see the point now in half-baked restrictions. The only shot they had to stop this was hard lockdown. We've never had a hard lockdown, we wouldn't accept one now, its a non-starter. If its as bad as they say it it you and your mates will end up caught in the shutdown. We don't need a lockdown. Or it isn't as bad as they say and we'll be ok.
Either way, we should not be passing the enabling bill today to let Peppa rule by decree.
Pure anecdata but I know many people who've tested positive over the last two or three days and all are reporting mild cold-like symptoms. Sore throats, sniffles, but nothing to stop them doing their day jobs (from home). So best guess is we're all going to be OK.
Big question from me though is, even if we got lucky this time, what if the next mutation is just as contagious and vaccine-evading, but far more deadly?
When we say this is endemic, do we mean we're just waiting for a variant to come along that will finish most of us all off, be it next year or a few years down the line?
In the SAGE long-term outlook it specifically mentioned higher morbidity and SARS and MERS as examples, it was in the same bracket of probability as the Omicron mutations.
Now we would be extraordinarily unlucky to see something like SARS emerge anytime soon, but with a very high number of cases the possibility of a more dangerous variant is a real one, and one that we should prepare for now.
Would any mutation to survive have to be more transmissible than Omicron?
Could do it by immune escape, but something like SARS kills the host too often and too quickly to become a pandemic, at least that was the experience of it.
It occurs to me that NHS might collapse whatever we do. It doesn’t matter if everyone is entombed in personal tungsten cave-cubicles, we will still get it, 40% of us will get it bad enough to take a week off work maybe 5% will go to hospital and 1% die?
That’s enough to totally fuck the economy. To stop everything. All work. No?
Unless you get wartime recruitment of the well-enough-old, young and recovered to staff shops and drive buses and the like, and what if they then get Delta to go down with it again? There are rumours you can get both.
How does a society function with this level of illness?
AND WHO WILL DIG THE PLAGUE PITS?
Pure anecdata but I know many people who've tested positive over the last two or three days and all are reporting mild cold-like symptoms. Sore throats, sniffles, but nothing to stop them doing their day jobs (from home). So best guess is we're all going to be OK.
Big question from me though is, even if we got lucky this time, what if the next mutation is just as contagious and vaccine-evading, but far more deadly?
When we say this is endemic, do we mean we're just waiting for a variant to come along that will finish most of us all off, be it next year or a few years down the line?
Yes indeed. However. Can nurses, delivery drivers, factory workers work from home? If not, are they capable of working on site?
My guess is quite a few people with "the sniffles" are going in to work anyway, especially if they're paid by the hour.
Steady under pressure, or not reacting quickly enough?
COPENHAGEN (Reuters) - Denmark will move forward the third coronavirus vaccination shot for people over the age of 40 to 4-1/2 months after the second shot, the health authority said on Monday.
The move to offer the booster shot earlier than the six months initially planned comes amid rising infection numbers and concern over the Omicron coronavirus variant.
"The country will face an “exit wave” of coronavirus infections whenever restrictions are lifted, England’s chief medical officer has said."
DEMONSTRABLY AN ABUSE OF THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
If we had seen cases rise and fall then fine. But we didn't. Cases rose. And with some variations at the top stayed largely the same. We didn't see the dropping away as we exit that wave. Its just stayed high permanently.
We did see them fall.
Because in the first phase schools were closed, in the second the schools were reopened.
Unless you have come to some perverted belief that schools don't affect transmission? Is that your claim now?
Lol
Covid cases 17th May 2,220 (7 day average). Then after we made changes a big spike and the pogoing highs and lows around the new baseline.
When you say "we did see them fall" it was to 25,722, a mere 11.5x higher than the start. And then up and up and up.
You are being so insane now, May was during restrictions, why the hell would it have to fall beneath the figure that is only achievable with restrictions? What an absurd suggestion (!)
Are you so naive and so unwilling to be realistic now that you can't tell the difference between transmission with schools closed and transmission with schools open now?
16 July 47,970.4 13 September 28,540.4
So the 7 day average halved until the schools went back, that's one wave.
You seem to be in utter denial. First you want us to exit the virus, then you want cases to fall below what they were when we were in lockdown. You just clearly haven't grasped the severity of reality have you?
You're getting irate at others because you're in complete denial.
More belly laughs at my end - this is great! Had it dropped to 28k and kept falling then that would have been great! Instead that was the new floor and then we saw an ever-increasing level of new floors. 28k. 33k, now 51k.
You said "We did see them fall. Because in the first phase schools were closed, in the second the schools were reopened." Yes. And then they went up again. And up some more. And some more.
We replaced the 2k cases a day with mask restrictions with a very best 28k a day and then up and up. If an ever-increasing number of cases is us exiting having cases then black truly is white.
Do keep it up, you're as funny as HYUFD foaming on about Toryism.
Why would it keep falling? Schools reopened! Then it became winter.
You are utterly delusional. Had we not had the exit wave we would have seen exponential growth with schools open, no restrictions and winter. To keep levels flat, while circumstances are getting worse, is proof that the wave has happened.
I'm not an expert on waves, but I don't think they're supposed to peak, and then just keep going at the level of the peak indefinitely.
One reason waves in the water form the pattern they do is the ground level is rising which causes the water to rise too.
In the UK since lifting lockdown the ground level for Covid's spread has been rising: Schools reopened, summer ended, winter began. And yet despite the ground level rising, the cases have been flat. Why?
The only reason the cases have been flat despite the higher ground level, is that the prior wave had just happened.
Imagine if it was the other way around, starting in winter with schools open, then going into spring, then summer, then the schools closed over summer holidays - if cases were flat over that, then you'd be confused why.
To have cases flat, while the ground level to boost Covid is getting higher, is proof that the wave had happened, not proof it didn't.
It's proof that the wave isn't over yet, which is proof that the (presumed) prior belief that it would crest and then break was wrong. In short, it is now conclusively proven to be Not a Wave.
Look at it another way: six months ago, was anyone predicting an "exit wave" that got stuck around 50k cases reported per day for months on end, if restrictions lifted?
Waves is funny things. One never knows, the dynamics muight have generatyed a soliton which moves forward as quickly as we do in time: see this ship in a canal 2:30 ON.
I have to say in two years "exit the virus" is surely up there among the most stupid things said about it. That there's anyone who believes that is worrying and the government Comms needs to be updated to warn everyone that we're all going to get it and the best way to decrease likelihood of symptoms is to get vaccinated. There is no other game in town.
I agree! So why do you keep saying we had an exit wave?
Because we did? Immunity and vaccine coverage in the UK is the highest in the world. Despite all of the doom rhetoric from the scientists we're not in any lockdown while most of Europe has got severe restrictions on going anywhere. Omicron may change the game, it may not. But in the summer to now 11-13m people got the virus, 70-80% of them unvaccinated by choice. Would you rather they had zero immunity heading into the Omicron wave?
Don't take my word for it Chris Whitty said it in June. It was and remains the right strategy, everyone is going ti get COVID. Lockdowns and NPIs displace infections, but now the vaccine cavalry is already here, last winter it wasn't so displacement of 1000 infections was ~9.5 lives saved. Today displacement of infections will save close to zero lives, anyone who wants to be can get vaccinated. I walked into a pharmacy with my wife yesterday and we both got our boosters.
Again and again, the only game in town is vaccines. Lockdowns will do nothing because the moment we unlock the virus will be back. Infecting all those same idiots who refused the vaccine. Lockdown to save people who refused the vaccine is immoral, better to tell them to die at home.
The reality is that those who are calling for lockdowns are looking for a legislative safety blanket where none exists.
It has been my view throughout that it is not the role of the state to protect people from a virus. Measures to fundamentally restrict the liberties of e.g. children to 'protect' the very elderly and vulnerable are not IMO morally justified at the current CFR. Excessive safetyism is not a road I want the state to go down.
I am very proud to see so many Tory 'rebel' MPs standing up for liberty today. I would vote exactly the same way.
So I read, I am a foaming lockdown forever advocate. And yet I said days ago I would also vote against. We need measures to sustain businesses who get screwed by the shutdown being caused by Omicron running rampant. Not half-measures and excuses.
We need to see MPs back reviewing the latest data and proposals as they come out - instead Javid is proposing another enabling act where Peppa will rule by decree through the Christmas recess.
Unacceptable.
Or let those of us who want to continue as is, continue.
I'm in my early 30s. As are most of my mates. All of us just want to crack on.
Could you make it any more obvious you think you're invulnerable and you couldn't give a damn about anyone else?
@Chris, I'm in my late 20s so liable to piss you off even more than Mortimer.
The disease appears to be even less dangerous to us than it was before. We've got vaxxed even when it was probably not in our personal interest to do so.
Uni/college students and school pupils have missed out on the education that we all got. And people my age haven't travelled, met partners etc for nearly two years.
Anecdote: FIve of the seven teachers in my daughter's primary school in SW London are isolating after positive COVID tests. Unsurprisingly, they are shifting to remote learning for the last few days of term
"The country will face an “exit wave” of coronavirus infections whenever restrictions are lifted, England’s chief medical officer has said."
DEMONSTRABLY AN ABUSE OF THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
If we had seen cases rise and fall then fine. But we didn't. Cases rose. And with some variations at the top stayed largely the same. We didn't see the dropping away as we exit that wave. Its just stayed high permanently.
We did see them fall.
Because in the first phase schools were closed, in the second the schools were reopened.
Unless you have come to some perverted belief that schools don't affect transmission? Is that your claim now?
Lol
Covid cases 17th May 2,220 (7 day average). Then after we made changes a big spike and the pogoing highs and lows around the new baseline.
When you say "we did see them fall" it was to 25,722, a mere 11.5x higher than the start. And then up and up and up.
You are being so insane now, May was during restrictions, why the hell would it have to fall beneath the figure that is only achievable with restrictions? What an absurd suggestion (!)
Are you so naive and so unwilling to be realistic now that you can't tell the difference between transmission with schools closed and transmission with schools open now?
16 July 47,970.4 13 September 28,540.4
So the 7 day average halved until the schools went back, that's one wave.
You seem to be in utter denial. First you want us to exit the virus, then you want cases to fall below what they were when we were in lockdown. You just clearly haven't grasped the severity of reality have you?
You're getting irate at others because you're in complete denial.
More belly laughs at my end - this is great! Had it dropped to 28k and kept falling then that would have been great! Instead that was the new floor and then we saw an ever-increasing level of new floors. 28k. 33k, now 51k.
You said "We did see them fall. Because in the first phase schools were closed, in the second the schools were reopened." Yes. And then they went up again. And up some more. And some more.
We replaced the 2k cases a day with mask restrictions with a very best 28k a day and then up and up. If an ever-increasing number of cases is us exiting having cases then black truly is white.
Do keep it up, you're as funny as HYUFD foaming on about Toryism.
"We replaced the 2k cases a day with mask restrictions"
You dishonest twerp. You took the data from when we were in Step 2 of lockdown.
In case you've forgotten by now, Step 2 was when it was illegal for restaurants to be open indoors. Childrens play areas, hotels, sport for fans etc were all closed. It was illegal to be within 2 metres of other people. It was illegal to go into other people's houses.
So yes if you want to have zero integrity, take lockdown Step 2 as your baseline and as "mask restrictions".
"Exiting Covid" and considering legal lockdown as your baseline for "mask restrictions" alone . . . you need to take a time out. You have thrown all your integrity away.
He's a moron, he clearly thinks COVID can be defeated but doesn't want to out himself as a moron.
Um, RP is actually using things you've said in the past against you because in theory the exit wave from July onwards should have resulted in us hitting herd immunity by now - at which point infection numbers should have dropped because there would be very few people left to be infected.
And it's clear that that has happened although it's equally clear that until Omicron arrived R0 was at a steady level of about 1.
But that's exit to endemicity. Exactly what we need to do with COVID. It's what Chris Whitty outlined in the summer. The alternative is actually scary, we kept restrictions, kept cases down to under 5k, only 1-2m get it over the summer and autumn and bang, Omicron arrives with 8-10m people having no vaccine or natural immunity. Even if it hospitalised at a third of the rate of Delta, that's still means 400k-500k unvaccinated people needing hospital treatment in a very short space of time. Natural immunity in that cohort will cut that by 80%. Some European countries who dodged their exit waves are in for a really tough winter, they have got millions and millions of people with zero immunity.
Erm, the data on Omicron and the pants being shat demonstrates that we have the same lack of immunity to Omicron - hence the desperate push to do boosters this month.
"The country will face an “exit wave” of coronavirus infections whenever restrictions are lifted, England’s chief medical officer has said."
DEMONSTRABLY AN ABUSE OF THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
If we had seen cases rise and fall then fine. But we didn't. Cases rose. And with some variations at the top stayed largely the same. We didn't see the dropping away as we exit that wave. Its just stayed high permanently.
We did see them fall.
Because in the first phase schools were closed, in the second the schools were reopened.
Unless you have come to some perverted belief that schools don't affect transmission? Is that your claim now?
Lol
Covid cases 17th May 2,220 (7 day average). Then after we made changes a big spike and the pogoing highs and lows around the new baseline.
When you say "we did see them fall" it was to 25,722, a mere 11.5x higher than the start. And then up and up and up.
You are being so insane now, May was during restrictions, why the hell would it have to fall beneath the figure that is only achievable with restrictions? What an absurd suggestion (!)
Are you so naive and so unwilling to be realistic now that you can't tell the difference between transmission with schools closed and transmission with schools open now?
16 July 47,970.4 13 September 28,540.4
So the 7 day average halved until the schools went back, that's one wave.
You seem to be in utter denial. First you want us to exit the virus, then you want cases to fall below what they were when we were in lockdown. You just clearly haven't grasped the severity of reality have you?
You're getting irate at others because you're in complete denial.
More belly laughs at my end - this is great! Had it dropped to 28k and kept falling then that would have been great! Instead that was the new floor and then we saw an ever-increasing level of new floors. 28k. 33k, now 51k.
You said "We did see them fall. Because in the first phase schools were closed, in the second the schools were reopened." Yes. And then they went up again. And up some more. And some more.
We replaced the 2k cases a day with mask restrictions with a very best 28k a day and then up and up. If an ever-increasing number of cases is us exiting having cases then black truly is white.
Do keep it up, you're as funny as HYUFD foaming on about Toryism.
"We replaced the 2k cases a day with mask restrictions"
You dishonest twerp. You took the data from when we were in Step 2 of lockdown.
In case you've forgotten by now, Step 2 was when it was illegal for restaurants to be open indoors. Childrens play areas, hotels, sport for fans etc were all closed. It was illegal to be within 2 metres of other people. It was illegal to go into other people's houses.
So yes if you want to have zero integrity, take lockdown Step 2 as your baseline and as "mask restrictions".
"Exiting Covid" and considering legal lockdown as your baseline for "mask restrictions" alone . . . you need to take a time out. You have thrown all your integrity away.
He's a moron, he clearly thinks COVID can be defeated but doesn't want to out himself as a moron.
Um, RP is actually using things you've said in the past against you because in theory the exit wave from July onwards should have resulted in us hitting herd immunity by now - at which point infection numbers should have dropped because there would be very few people left to be infected.
And it's clear that that has happened although it's equally clear that until Omicron arrived R0 was at a steady level of about 1.
Pre-Omicron we had hit herd immunity which is why exponential growth wasn't occurring, without any restrictions and with a worsening environment (schools reopening, summer ending, winter starting etc)
R0 of 1 or below is herd immunity.
300,000 cases a week doesn't sound to me anything like herd immunity.
Why not?
This was an exponential disease, now it isn't, that is herd immunity achieved.
If herd immunity wasn't achieved then 300k one week would have been 600k the next. 300k one week, then 300k the next is herd immunity stable state as opposed to exponential growth.
Delta doesn't spread in the exponential way suggested amongst a largely vaccinated population. Omicron does. Sadly./
"The country will face an “exit wave” of coronavirus infections whenever restrictions are lifted, England’s chief medical officer has said."
DEMONSTRABLY AN ABUSE OF THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
If we had seen cases rise and fall then fine. But we didn't. Cases rose. And with some variations at the top stayed largely the same. We didn't see the dropping away as we exit that wave. Its just stayed high permanently.
We did see them fall.
Because in the first phase schools were closed, in the second the schools were reopened.
Unless you have come to some perverted belief that schools don't affect transmission? Is that your claim now?
Lol
Covid cases 17th May 2,220 (7 day average). Then after we made changes a big spike and the pogoing highs and lows around the new baseline.
When you say "we did see them fall" it was to 25,722, a mere 11.5x higher than the start. And then up and up and up.
You are being so insane now, May was during restrictions, why the hell would it have to fall beneath the figure that is only achievable with restrictions? What an absurd suggestion (!)
Are you so naive and so unwilling to be realistic now that you can't tell the difference between transmission with schools closed and transmission with schools open now?
16 July 47,970.4 13 September 28,540.4
So the 7 day average halved until the schools went back, that's one wave.
You seem to be in utter denial. First you want us to exit the virus, then you want cases to fall below what they were when we were in lockdown. You just clearly haven't grasped the severity of reality have you?
You're getting irate at others because you're in complete denial.
More belly laughs at my end - this is great! Had it dropped to 28k and kept falling then that would have been great! Instead that was the new floor and then we saw an ever-increasing level of new floors. 28k. 33k, now 51k.
You said "We did see them fall. Because in the first phase schools were closed, in the second the schools were reopened." Yes. And then they went up again. And up some more. And some more.
We replaced the 2k cases a day with mask restrictions with a very best 28k a day and then up and up. If an ever-increasing number of cases is us exiting having cases then black truly is white.
Do keep it up, you're as funny as HYUFD foaming on about Toryism.
"We replaced the 2k cases a day with mask restrictions"
You dishonest twerp. You took the data from when we were in Step 2 of lockdown.
In case you've forgotten by now, Step 2 was when it was illegal for restaurants to be open indoors. Childrens play areas, hotels, sport for fans etc were all closed. It was illegal to be within 2 metres of other people. It was illegal to go into other people's houses.
So yes if you want to have zero integrity, take lockdown Step 2 as your baseline and as "mask restrictions".
"Exiting Covid" and considering legal lockdown as your baseline for "mask restrictions" alone . . . you need to take a time out. You have thrown all your integrity away.
He's a moron, he clearly thinks COVID can be defeated but doesn't want to out himself as a moron.
Um, RP is actually using things you've said in the past against you because in theory the exit wave from July onwards should have resulted in us hitting herd immunity by now - at which point infection numbers should have dropped because there would be very few people left to be infected.
And it's clear that that has happened although it's equally clear that until Omicron arrived R0 was at a steady level of about 1.
But that's exit to endemicity. Exactly what we need to do with COVID. It's what Chris Whitty outlined in the summer. The alternative is actually scary, we kept restrictions, kept cases down to under 5k, only 1-2m get it over the summer and autumn and bang, Omicron arrives with 8-10m people having no vaccine or natural immunity. Even if it hospitalised at a third of the rate of Delta, that's still means 400k-500k unvaccinated people needing hospital treatment in a very short space of time. Natural immunity in that cohort will cut that by 80%. Some European countries who dodged their exit waves are in for a really tough winter, they have got millions and millions of people with zero immunity.
Erm, the data on Omicron and the pants being shat demonstrates that we have the same lack of immunity to Omicron - hence the desperate push to do boosters this month.
18 months. What do we think? I'm not sure why the driver wasn't prosecuted for attempted murder.
Violent criminal who is "one of us." Not "one of them." Aside from the sentence. 3 year ban? For a man prepared to use his vehicle as a weapon? If it had been a gun, would he ever be allowed one again? I think not.
A 74 year old engineer is "one of us?"
I think this is another case of "With cars, it is completely different" - it's as if there is a special sentencing section for "done with a car"
Quite.
You would have thought that the concept of a car as a weapon had been demonstrated well enough recently.
Why is it OK to terrorise cyclists but not pedestrians?
Only fair, seeingf as how cyclists terrorise us pedestrians. (Not serious in that sense: but still there is an issue.)
513,722 booster vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday (329,165 the previous Monday)
🏴 418,544 🏴 45,601 🏴 26,676 NI 22,901
Are these numbers actually from yesterday, or are we still in an era where there is a reporting delay for jabs? Because if it was yesterday, with supposed queues round the block, we are never going to do 1.x million a day, every day.
There's been a consistent pattern of vaccine figures reported on Monday being the lowest, and on Tuesday being the second lowest, so I suspect there is a reporting delay effect at play.
+50% week on week still slightly disappointing though given that would only take us to an average of 600k per day.
As I understand it, people arriving after 4am tomorrow from previously labelled Red countries do not have to quarantine in government hotels yet those who are already in those hotels (perhaps they arrived at 3am !!) are to remain "imprisoned" for the full ten days.
Still got the debate on in the background. So good to see Wes Streeting on the opposition front bench. So much better than his predecessor even if I disagree with some of the stuff he is saying.
I assume you would be voting with the conservative rebels if you had a vote
Happily for everyone I am not an MP. But I agree with the line the LibDems have taken and would vote with them, yes.
"The country will face an “exit wave” of coronavirus infections whenever restrictions are lifted, England’s chief medical officer has said."
DEMONSTRABLY AN ABUSE OF THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
If we had seen cases rise and fall then fine. But we didn't. Cases rose. And with some variations at the top stayed largely the same. We didn't see the dropping away as we exit that wave. Its just stayed high permanently.
We did see them fall.
Because in the first phase schools were closed, in the second the schools were reopened.
Unless you have come to some perverted belief that schools don't affect transmission? Is that your claim now?
Lol
Covid cases 17th May 2,220 (7 day average). Then after we made changes a big spike and the pogoing highs and lows around the new baseline.
When you say "we did see them fall" it was to 25,722, a mere 11.5x higher than the start. And then up and up and up.
You are being so insane now, May was during restrictions, why the hell would it have to fall beneath the figure that is only achievable with restrictions? What an absurd suggestion (!)
Are you so naive and so unwilling to be realistic now that you can't tell the difference between transmission with schools closed and transmission with schools open now?
16 July 47,970.4 13 September 28,540.4
So the 7 day average halved until the schools went back, that's one wave.
You seem to be in utter denial. First you want us to exit the virus, then you want cases to fall below what they were when we were in lockdown. You just clearly haven't grasped the severity of reality have you?
You're getting irate at others because you're in complete denial.
More belly laughs at my end - this is great! Had it dropped to 28k and kept falling then that would have been great! Instead that was the new floor and then we saw an ever-increasing level of new floors. 28k. 33k, now 51k.
You said "We did see them fall. Because in the first phase schools were closed, in the second the schools were reopened." Yes. And then they went up again. And up some more. And some more.
We replaced the 2k cases a day with mask restrictions with a very best 28k a day and then up and up. If an ever-increasing number of cases is us exiting having cases then black truly is white.
Do keep it up, you're as funny as HYUFD foaming on about Toryism.
Why would it keep falling? Schools reopened! Then it became winter.
You are utterly delusional. Had we not had the exit wave we would have seen exponential growth with schools open, no restrictions and winter. To keep levels flat, while circumstances are getting worse, is proof that the wave has happened.
I'm not an expert on waves, but I don't think they're supposed to peak, and then just keep going at the level of the peak indefinitely.
One reason waves in the water form the pattern they do is the ground level is rising which causes the water to rise too.
In the UK since lifting lockdown the ground level for Covid's spread has been rising: Schools reopened, summer ended, winter began. And yet despite the ground level rising, the cases have been flat. Why?
The only reason the cases have been flat despite the higher ground level, is that the prior wave had just happened.
Imagine if it was the other way around, starting in winter with schools open, then going into spring, then summer, then the schools closed over summer holidays - if cases were flat over that, then you'd be confused why.
To have cases flat, while the ground level to boost Covid is getting higher, is proof that the wave had happened, not proof it didn't.
It's proof that the wave isn't over yet, which is proof that the (presumed) prior belief that it would crest and then break was wrong. In short, it is now conclusively proven to be Not a Wave.
Look at it another way: six months ago, was anyone predicting an "exit wave" that got stuck around 50k cases reported per day for months on end, if restrictions lifted?
Its proof the wave is over. Yes most predictions showed that the exit wave would end with a fairly stable state, the fact we ended with a stable state is proof the wave had happened.
The wave was supposed to be a spike up but that never happened in the way that was predicted, but once you reach stability that is post-wave.
Have a loo at my post just now for an example of a wave that is a steady state vbut is still mich higher than otherwise.
That was really fascinating and yes that does seem like a good example of the type of wave we've been having in recent months. The move from summer holidays, to schools reopening, to autumn, to winter has been like the vessel moving forwards in the canal generating a series of waves as you showed.
Would any mutation to survive have to be more transmissible than Omicron?
As I understand this sort of thing (big caveat), generally the answer is yes, but in the longer term once the more transmissible variant has infected a large proportion of the population the immunity they gain against that variant effectively reduces the transmission rate of that variant, which then allows what was previously a less transmissible variant to gain a foothold and start its own wave of infection.
Well our return to the office which was scheduled for Monday the 7th of February, has once more been postponed.
Not until after Easter is the latest marker.
Am I ever going to be in the same office as my staff again?
Why are they so prescriptive? Sensible approach is to leave it up to the staff whether they go in or not until things are clearer. Sometimes it’s helpful to be in the office - indeed I’m heading into mine right now.
H&S - as my wife's company states - only people who need to be in the office for work or mental health reasons can currently work from the office.
Why would anyone go into the office if not for work? I’m prepared to believe that some might make a special trip purely to shag the caretaker, but am willing to wager that they are a niche group at best.
It's the nature / requirements of their jobs rather than anything else.
A chap in my team is coming to the office to study - he is a recent grad, doing multiple career related courses, and has zero quiet space in his flat share. The office is mostly empty, silent, spacious, he has a desk, computer and chair, printer and he gets free high quality coffee from the coffee machine.
Can fully understand that - I dislike the fact my office is on my wife's way to the kitchen so she wonders in when I'm trying to concentrate or asks who were you on the phone to.
I have a decent sized desk at home, a high end Mac, a mouse that doesn't give me RSI, a custom keyboard and a 34" monitor on an arm*.
It is quite surprising how many people think that everyone has that.
*If anyone is working from homeland think about their setup - big monitors are dropping in price massively. The arm to carry my one was about £70. Aside from being better than 2 x 17" monitors, the whole setup was cheaper - arms for multiple monitors are very expensive. And an arm is vital for getting proper adjust meant height.
I have to say in two years "exit the virus" is surely up there among the most stupid things said about it. That there's anyone who believes that is worrying and the government Comms needs to be updated to warn everyone that we're all going to get it and the best way to decrease likelihood of symptoms is to get vaccinated. There is no other game in town.
I agree! So why do you keep saying we had an exit wave?
Because we did? Immunity and vaccine coverage in the UK is the highest in the world. Despite all of the doom rhetoric from the scientists we're not in any lockdown while most of Europe has got severe restrictions on going anywhere. Omicron may change the game, it may not. But in the summer to now 11-13m people got the virus, 70-80% of them unvaccinated by choice. Would you rather they had zero immunity heading into the Omicron wave?
Don't take my word for it Chris Whitty said it in June. It was and remains the right strategy, everyone is going ti get COVID. Lockdowns and NPIs displace infections, but now the vaccine cavalry is already here, last winter it wasn't so displacement of 1000 infections was ~9.5 lives saved. Today displacement of infections will save close to zero lives, anyone who wants to be can get vaccinated. I walked into a pharmacy with my wife yesterday and we both got our boosters.
Again and again, the only game in town is vaccines. Lockdowns will do nothing because the moment we unlock the virus will be back. Infecting all those same idiots who refused the vaccine. Lockdown to save people who refused the vaccine is immoral, better to tell them to die at home.
The reality is that those who are calling for lockdowns are looking for a legislative safety blanket where none exists.
It has been my view throughout that it is not the role of the state to protect people from a virus. Measures to fundamentally restrict the liberties of e.g. children to 'protect' the very elderly and vulnerable are not IMO morally justified at the current CFR. Excessive safetyism is not a road I want the state to go down.
I am very proud to see so many Tory 'rebel' MPs standing up for liberty today. I would vote exactly the same way.
So I read, I am a foaming lockdown forever advocate. And yet I said days ago I would also vote against. We need measures to sustain businesses who get screwed by the shutdown being caused by Omicron running rampant. Not half-measures and excuses.
We need to see MPs back reviewing the latest data and proposals as they come out - instead Javid is proposing another enabling act where Peppa will rule by decree through the Christmas recess.
Unacceptable.
Or let those of us who want to continue as is, continue.
I'm in my early 30s. As are most of my mates. All of us just want to crack on.
If it is as bad as they say it is, you can't crack on. Because some of you will be sick with Omicron or having to isolate because live or work closely with someone who is sick.
But I don't see the point now in half-baked restrictions. The only shot they had to stop this was hard lockdown. We've never had a hard lockdown, we wouldn't accept one now, its a non-starter. If its as bad as they say it it you and your mates will end up caught in the shutdown. We don't need a lockdown. Or it isn't as bad as they say and we'll be ok.
Either way, we should not be passing the enabling bill today to let Peppa rule by decree.
Suspect the vast majority of cases are now going unrecorded. Because of various reasons:
1) Mildness of symptoms - especially in the young and vaxxed 2) People have heard the horror stories of the pestering track and trace give you if you get a positive pcr 3) Positive mental attitude - I've been seeing and hearing far more coughs and sneezes recently on my travels. People have got over the fear of any symptoms and so will be disregarding things 4) The terribly slow to respond state messaging - people are STILL obsessed with hand washing; is it any wonder that people won't have noticed the changed info re: new symptoms etc etc
"The country will face an “exit wave” of coronavirus infections whenever restrictions are lifted, England’s chief medical officer has said."
DEMONSTRABLY AN ABUSE OF THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
If we had seen cases rise and fall then fine. But we didn't. Cases rose. And with some variations at the top stayed largely the same. We didn't see the dropping away as we exit that wave. Its just stayed high permanently.
We did see them fall.
Because in the first phase schools were closed, in the second the schools were reopened.
Unless you have come to some perverted belief that schools don't affect transmission? Is that your claim now?
Lol
Covid cases 17th May 2,220 (7 day average). Then after we made changes a big spike and the pogoing highs and lows around the new baseline.
When you say "we did see them fall" it was to 25,722, a mere 11.5x higher than the start. And then up and up and up.
You are being so insane now, May was during restrictions, why the hell would it have to fall beneath the figure that is only achievable with restrictions? What an absurd suggestion (!)
Are you so naive and so unwilling to be realistic now that you can't tell the difference between transmission with schools closed and transmission with schools open now?
16 July 47,970.4 13 September 28,540.4
So the 7 day average halved until the schools went back, that's one wave.
You seem to be in utter denial. First you want us to exit the virus, then you want cases to fall below what they were when we were in lockdown. You just clearly haven't grasped the severity of reality have you?
You're getting irate at others because you're in complete denial.
More belly laughs at my end - this is great! Had it dropped to 28k and kept falling then that would have been great! Instead that was the new floor and then we saw an ever-increasing level of new floors. 28k. 33k, now 51k.
You said "We did see them fall. Because in the first phase schools were closed, in the second the schools were reopened." Yes. And then they went up again. And up some more. And some more.
We replaced the 2k cases a day with mask restrictions with a very best 28k a day and then up and up. If an ever-increasing number of cases is us exiting having cases then black truly is white.
Do keep it up, you're as funny as HYUFD foaming on about Toryism.
"We replaced the 2k cases a day with mask restrictions"
You dishonest twerp. You took the data from when we were in Step 2 of lockdown.
In case you've forgotten by now, Step 2 was when it was illegal for restaurants to be open indoors. Childrens play areas, hotels, sport for fans etc were all closed. It was illegal to be within 2 metres of other people. It was illegal to go into other people's houses.
So yes if you want to have zero integrity, take lockdown Step 2 as your baseline and as "mask restrictions".
"Exiting Covid" and considering legal lockdown as your baseline for "mask restrictions" alone . . . you need to take a time out. You have thrown all your integrity away.
He's a moron, he clearly thinks COVID can be defeated but doesn't want to out himself as a moron.
Um, RP is actually using things you've said in the past against you because in theory the exit wave from July onwards should have resulted in us hitting herd immunity by now - at which point infection numbers should have dropped because there would be very few people left to be infected.
And it's clear that that has happened although it's equally clear that until Omicron arrived R0 was at a steady level of about 1.
But that's exit to endemicity. Exactly what we need to do with COVID. It's what Chris Whitty outlined in the summer. The alternative is actually scary, we kept restrictions, kept cases down to under 5k, only 1-2m get it over the summer and autumn and bang, Omicron arrives with 8-10m people having no vaccine or natural immunity. Even if it hospitalised at a third of the rate of Delta, that's still means 400k-500k unvaccinated people needing hospital treatment in a very short space of time. Natural immunity in that cohort will cut that by 80%. Some European countries who dodged their exit waves are in for a really tough winter, they have got millions and millions of people with zero immunity.
Erm, the data on Omicron and the pants being shat demonstrates that we have the same lack of immunity to Omicron - hence the desperate push to do boosters this month.
Omicron has some immunity escape, its not 100% immunity escape. Jesus Christ. 🤦♂️
"The country will face an “exit wave” of coronavirus infections whenever restrictions are lifted, England’s chief medical officer has said."
DEMONSTRABLY AN ABUSE OF THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
If we had seen cases rise and fall then fine. But we didn't. Cases rose. And with some variations at the top stayed largely the same. We didn't see the dropping away as we exit that wave. Its just stayed high permanently.
We did see them fall.
Because in the first phase schools were closed, in the second the schools were reopened.
Unless you have come to some perverted belief that schools don't affect transmission? Is that your claim now?
Lol
Covid cases 17th May 2,220 (7 day average). Then after we made changes a big spike and the pogoing highs and lows around the new baseline.
When you say "we did see them fall" it was to 25,722, a mere 11.5x higher than the start. And then up and up and up.
You are being so insane now, May was during restrictions, why the hell would it have to fall beneath the figure that is only achievable with restrictions? What an absurd suggestion (!)
Are you so naive and so unwilling to be realistic now that you can't tell the difference between transmission with schools closed and transmission with schools open now?
16 July 47,970.4 13 September 28,540.4
So the 7 day average halved until the schools went back, that's one wave.
You seem to be in utter denial. First you want us to exit the virus, then you want cases to fall below what they were when we were in lockdown. You just clearly haven't grasped the severity of reality have you?
You're getting irate at others because you're in complete denial.
More belly laughs at my end - this is great! Had it dropped to 28k and kept falling then that would have been great! Instead that was the new floor and then we saw an ever-increasing level of new floors. 28k. 33k, now 51k.
You said "We did see them fall. Because in the first phase schools were closed, in the second the schools were reopened." Yes. And then they went up again. And up some more. And some more.
We replaced the 2k cases a day with mask restrictions with a very best 28k a day and then up and up. If an ever-increasing number of cases is us exiting having cases then black truly is white.
Do keep it up, you're as funny as HYUFD foaming on about Toryism.
Why would it keep falling? Schools reopened! Then it became winter.
You are utterly delusional. Had we not had the exit wave we would have seen exponential growth with schools open, no restrictions and winter. To keep levels flat, while circumstances are getting worse, is proof that the wave has happened.
I'm not an expert on waves, but I don't think they're supposed to peak, and then just keep going at the level of the peak indefinitely.
One reason waves in the water form the pattern they do is the ground level is rising which causes the water to rise too.
In the UK since lifting lockdown the ground level for Covid's spread has been rising: Schools reopened, summer ended, winter began. And yet despite the ground level rising, the cases have been flat. Why?
The only reason the cases have been flat despite the higher ground level, is that the prior wave had just happened.
Imagine if it was the other way around, starting in winter with schools open, then going into spring, then summer, then the schools closed over summer holidays - if cases were flat over that, then you'd be confused why.
To have cases flat, while the ground level to boost Covid is getting higher, is proof that the wave had happened, not proof it didn't.
It's proof that the wave isn't over yet, which is proof that the (presumed) prior belief that it would crest and then break was wrong. In short, it is now conclusively proven to be Not a Wave.
Look at it another way: six months ago, was anyone predicting an "exit wave" that got stuck around 50k cases reported per day for months on end, if restrictions lifted?
Waves is funny things. One never knows, the dynamics muight have generatyed a soliton which moves forward as quickly as we do in time: see this ship in a canal 2:30 ON.
That's a really nice explanation of water wave solitons - thank you for finding that.
Solitons were discovered by John Scott Russell on the ?Forth and Clyde? canal:
"I was observing the motion of a boat which was rapidly drawn along a narrow channel by a pair of horses, when the boat suddenly stopped – not so the mass of water in the channel which it had put in motion; it accumulated round the prow of the vessel in a state of violent agitation, then suddenly leaving it behind, rolled forward with great velocity, assuming the form of a large solitary elevation, a rounded, smooth and well-defined heap of water, which continued its course along the channel apparently without change of form or diminution of speed. I followed it on horseback, and overtook it still rolling on at a rate of some eight or nine miles an hour, preserving its original figure some thirty feet long and a foot to a foot and a half in height. Its height gradually diminished, and after a chase of one or two miles I lost it in the windings of the channel. Such, in the month of August 1834, was my first chance interview with that singular and beautiful phenomenon which I have called the Wave of Translation."
"The country will face an “exit wave” of coronavirus infections whenever restrictions are lifted, England’s chief medical officer has said."
DEMONSTRABLY AN ABUSE OF THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
If we had seen cases rise and fall then fine. But we didn't. Cases rose. And with some variations at the top stayed largely the same. We didn't see the dropping away as we exit that wave. Its just stayed high permanently.
We did see them fall.
Because in the first phase schools were closed, in the second the schools were reopened.
Unless you have come to some perverted belief that schools don't affect transmission? Is that your claim now?
Lol
Covid cases 17th May 2,220 (7 day average). Then after we made changes a big spike and the pogoing highs and lows around the new baseline.
When you say "we did see them fall" it was to 25,722, a mere 11.5x higher than the start. And then up and up and up.
You are being so insane now, May was during restrictions, why the hell would it have to fall beneath the figure that is only achievable with restrictions? What an absurd suggestion (!)
Are you so naive and so unwilling to be realistic now that you can't tell the difference between transmission with schools closed and transmission with schools open now?
16 July 47,970.4 13 September 28,540.4
So the 7 day average halved until the schools went back, that's one wave.
You seem to be in utter denial. First you want us to exit the virus, then you want cases to fall below what they were when we were in lockdown. You just clearly haven't grasped the severity of reality have you?
You're getting irate at others because you're in complete denial.
More belly laughs at my end - this is great! Had it dropped to 28k and kept falling then that would have been great! Instead that was the new floor and then we saw an ever-increasing level of new floors. 28k. 33k, now 51k.
You said "We did see them fall. Because in the first phase schools were closed, in the second the schools were reopened." Yes. And then they went up again. And up some more. And some more.
We replaced the 2k cases a day with mask restrictions with a very best 28k a day and then up and up. If an ever-increasing number of cases is us exiting having cases then black truly is white.
Do keep it up, you're as funny as HYUFD foaming on about Toryism.
Why would it keep falling? Schools reopened! Then it became winter.
You are utterly delusional. Had we not had the exit wave we would have seen exponential growth with schools open, no restrictions and winter. To keep levels flat, while circumstances are getting worse, is proof that the wave has happened.
I'm not an expert on waves, but I don't think they're supposed to peak, and then just keep going at the level of the peak indefinitely.
One reason waves in the water form the pattern they do is the ground level is rising which causes the water to rise too.
In the UK since lifting lockdown the ground level for Covid's spread has been rising: Schools reopened, summer ended, winter began. And yet despite the ground level rising, the cases have been flat. Why?
The only reason the cases have been flat despite the higher ground level, is that the prior wave had just happened.
Imagine if it was the other way around, starting in winter with schools open, then going into spring, then summer, then the schools closed over summer holidays - if cases were flat over that, then you'd be confused why.
To have cases flat, while the ground level to boost Covid is getting higher, is proof that the wave had happened, not proof it didn't.
It's proof that the wave isn't over yet, which is proof that the (presumed) prior belief that it would crest and then break was wrong. In short, it is now conclusively proven to be Not a Wave.
Look at it another way: six months ago, was anyone predicting an "exit wave" that got stuck around 50k cases reported per day for months on end, if restrictions lifted?
Its proof the wave is over. Yes most predictions showed that the exit wave would end with a fairly stable state, the fact we ended with a stable state is proof the wave had happened.
The wave was supposed to be a spike up but that never happened in the way that was predicted, but once you reach stability that is post-wave.
That's all very well, but the clear implication of "exit wave" is that daily cases would eventually start coming down, and eventually get close enough to zero that we could all stop worrying about it. Our health service was not designed to constantly have several thousand people in hospital with Covid, and we aren't in endemic territory until either that stops, or we add in significant capacity to allow some inroads to be made into the massive backlog of non-Covid health problems. In addition, people are still very much modifying their regular behaviour in terms of socialising etc, and we aren't "stable" until that stops happening as well.
18 months. What do we think? I'm not sure why the driver wasn't prosecuted for attempted murder.
Violent criminal who is "one of us." Not "one of them." Aside from the sentence. 3 year ban? For a man prepared to use his vehicle as a weapon? If it had been a gun, would he ever be allowed one again? I think not.
A 74 year old engineer is "one of us?"
I think this is another case of "With cars, it is completely different" - it's as if there is a special sentencing section for "done with a car"
Quite.
You would have thought that the concept of a car as a weapon had been demonstrated well enough recently.
Why is it OK to terrorise cyclists but not pedestrians?
Only fair, seeingf as how cyclists terrorise us pedestrians. (Not serious in that sense: but still there is an issue.)
You might want to ask why cyclists are terrorising pedestrians (if they are, I don't) when it is always quicker to ride on the road...
Well our return to the office which was scheduled for Monday the 7th of February, has once more been postponed.
Not until after Easter is the latest marker.
Am I ever going to be in the same office as my staff again?
Why are they so prescriptive? Sensible approach is to leave it up to the staff whether they go in or not until things are clearer. Sometimes it’s helpful to be in the office - indeed I’m heading into mine right now.
H&S - as my wife's company states - only people who need to be in the office for work or mental health reasons can currently work from the office.
Why would anyone go into the office if not for work? I’m prepared to believe that some might make a special trip purely to shag the caretaker, but am willing to wager that they are a niche group at best.
It's the nature / requirements of their jobs rather than anything else.
A chap in my team is coming to the office to study - he is a recent grad, doing multiple career related courses, and has zero quiet space in his flat share. The office is mostly empty, silent, spacious, he has a desk, computer and chair, printer and he gets free high quality coffee from the coffee machine.
Can fully understand that - I dislike the fact my office is on my wife's way to the kitchen so she wonders in when I'm trying to concentrate or asks who were you on the phone to.
I have a decent sized desk at home, a high end Mac, a mouse that doesn't give me RSI, a custom keyboard and a 34" monitor on an arm*.
It is quite surprising how many people think that everyone has that.
*If anyone is working from homeland think about their setup - big monitors are dropping in price massively. The arm to carry my one was about £70. Aside from being better than 2 x 17" monitors, the whole setup was cheaper - arms for multiple monitors are very expensive. And an arm is vital for getting proper adjust meant height.
My setup is - watercooled top of range desktop (Ryzen 5950X, 3090, 64gb ram) 2x27" monitors and a electric standing desk. the laptop is a lightweight 13" model not that I've used it in 2 years.
Mrs Eek has her work laptop but doesn't have a second screen as although I have spares she doesn't want it and because of her work setup via RDS it would be completely pointless anyway)
18 months. What do we think? I'm not sure why the driver wasn't prosecuted for attempted murder.
Violent criminal who is "one of us." Not "one of them." Aside from the sentence. 3 year ban? For a man prepared to use his vehicle as a weapon? If it had been a gun, would he ever be allowed one again? I think not.
A 74 year old engineer is "one of us?"
I think this is another case of "With cars, it is completely different" - it's as if there is a special sentencing section for "done with a car"
"One of us" meant car driver. The vast majority of the population, yes. So loss of all control of one's violent instincts is tolerated when in possession of a car, as most have been.
"The country will face an “exit wave” of coronavirus infections whenever restrictions are lifted, England’s chief medical officer has said."
DEMONSTRABLY AN ABUSE OF THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
If we had seen cases rise and fall then fine. But we didn't. Cases rose. And with some variations at the top stayed largely the same. We didn't see the dropping away as we exit that wave. Its just stayed high permanently.
We did see them fall.
Because in the first phase schools were closed, in the second the schools were reopened.
Unless you have come to some perverted belief that schools don't affect transmission? Is that your claim now?
Lol
Covid cases 17th May 2,220 (7 day average). Then after we made changes a big spike and the pogoing highs and lows around the new baseline.
When you say "we did see them fall" it was to 25,722, a mere 11.5x higher than the start. And then up and up and up.
You are being so insane now, May was during restrictions, why the hell would it have to fall beneath the figure that is only achievable with restrictions? What an absurd suggestion (!)
Are you so naive and so unwilling to be realistic now that you can't tell the difference between transmission with schools closed and transmission with schools open now?
16 July 47,970.4 13 September 28,540.4
So the 7 day average halved until the schools went back, that's one wave.
You seem to be in utter denial. First you want us to exit the virus, then you want cases to fall below what they were when we were in lockdown. You just clearly haven't grasped the severity of reality have you?
You're getting irate at others because you're in complete denial.
More belly laughs at my end - this is great! Had it dropped to 28k and kept falling then that would have been great! Instead that was the new floor and then we saw an ever-increasing level of new floors. 28k. 33k, now 51k.
You said "We did see them fall. Because in the first phase schools were closed, in the second the schools were reopened." Yes. And then they went up again. And up some more. And some more.
We replaced the 2k cases a day with mask restrictions with a very best 28k a day and then up and up. If an ever-increasing number of cases is us exiting having cases then black truly is white.
Do keep it up, you're as funny as HYUFD foaming on about Toryism.
"We replaced the 2k cases a day with mask restrictions"
You dishonest twerp. You took the data from when we were in Step 2 of lockdown.
In case you've forgotten by now, Step 2 was when it was illegal for restaurants to be open indoors. Childrens play areas, hotels, sport for fans etc were all closed. It was illegal to be within 2 metres of other people. It was illegal to go into other people's houses.
So yes if you want to have zero integrity, take lockdown Step 2 as your baseline and as "mask restrictions".
"Exiting Covid" and considering legal lockdown as your baseline for "mask restrictions" alone . . . you need to take a time out. You have thrown all your integrity away.
He's a moron, he clearly thinks COVID can be defeated but doesn't want to out himself as a moron.
Um, RP is actually using things you've said in the past against you because in theory the exit wave from July onwards should have resulted in us hitting herd immunity by now - at which point infection numbers should have dropped because there would be very few people left to be infected.
And it's clear that that has happened although it's equally clear that until Omicron arrived R0 was at a steady level of about 1.
But that's exit to endemicity. Exactly what we need to do with COVID. It's what Chris Whitty outlined in the summer. The alternative is actually scary, we kept restrictions, kept cases down to under 5k, only 1-2m get it over the summer and autumn and bang, Omicron arrives with 8-10m people having no vaccine or natural immunity. Even if it hospitalised at a third of the rate of Delta, that's still means 400k-500k unvaccinated people needing hospital treatment in a very short space of time. Natural immunity in that cohort will cut that by 80%. Some European countries who dodged their exit waves are in for a really tough winter, they have got millions and millions of people with zero immunity.
Erm, the data on Omicron and the pants being shat demonstrates that we have the same lack of immunity to Omicron - hence the desperate push to do boosters this month.
Omicron has some immunity escape, its not 100% immunity escape. Jesus Christ. 🤦♂️
Some immunity escape means we are no longer sat on 40-50,000 cases a day but a higher number that many people seem to expect to get way higher over the next 2 weeks.
I have to say in two years "exit the virus" is surely up there among the most stupid things said about it. That there's anyone who believes that is worrying and the government Comms needs to be updated to warn everyone that we're all going to get it and the best way to decrease likelihood of symptoms is to get vaccinated. There is no other game in town.
I agree! So why do you keep saying we had an exit wave?
Because we did? Immunity and vaccine coverage in the UK is the highest in the world. Despite all of the doom rhetoric from the scientists we're not in any lockdown while most of Europe has got severe restrictions on going anywhere. Omicron may change the game, it may not. But in the summer to now 11-13m people got the virus, 70-80% of them unvaccinated by choice. Would you rather they had zero immunity heading into the Omicron wave?
Don't take my word for it Chris Whitty said it in June. It was and remains the right strategy, everyone is going ti get COVID. Lockdowns and NPIs displace infections, but now the vaccine cavalry is already here, last winter it wasn't so displacement of 1000 infections was ~9.5 lives saved. Today displacement of infections will save close to zero lives, anyone who wants to be can get vaccinated. I walked into a pharmacy with my wife yesterday and we both got our boosters.
Again and again, the only game in town is vaccines. Lockdowns will do nothing because the moment we unlock the virus will be back. Infecting all those same idiots who refused the vaccine. Lockdown to save people who refused the vaccine is immoral, better to tell them to die at home.
The reality is that those who are calling for lockdowns are looking for a legislative safety blanket where none exists.
It has been my view throughout that it is not the role of the state to protect people from a virus. Measures to fundamentally restrict the liberties of e.g. children to 'protect' the very elderly and vulnerable are not IMO morally justified at the current CFR. Excessive safetyism is not a road I want the state to go down.
I am very proud to see so many Tory 'rebel' MPs standing up for liberty today. I would vote exactly the same way.
So I read, I am a foaming lockdown forever advocate. And yet I said days ago I would also vote against. We need measures to sustain businesses who get screwed by the shutdown being caused by Omicron running rampant. Not half-measures and excuses.
We need to see MPs back reviewing the latest data and proposals as they come out - instead Javid is proposing another enabling act where Peppa will rule by decree through the Christmas recess.
Unacceptable.
Or let those of us who want to continue as is, continue.
I'm in my early 30s. As are most of my mates. All of us just want to crack on.
Could you make it any more obvious you think you're invulnerable and you couldn't give a damn about anyone else?
@Chris, I'm in my late 20s so liable to piss you off even more than Mortimer.
The disease appears to be even less dangerous to us than it was before. We've got vaxxed even when it was probably not in our personal interest to do so.
Uni/college students and school pupils have missed out on the education that we all got. And people my age haven't travelled, met partners etc for nearly two years.
Do you give a damn about anyone else?
Not about people who are so self-obsessed that they're willing to put a higher priority on travel, "meeting partners" and respecting their anti-vaccine fantasies than on giving a toss whether other people die or not.
It's not that I think I'm particularly at risk myself. I don't have any particular risk factors and I've had a booster. It's just that people like you turn my stomach with your grotesque selfishness.
"The country will face an “exit wave” of coronavirus infections whenever restrictions are lifted, England’s chief medical officer has said."
DEMONSTRABLY AN ABUSE OF THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
If we had seen cases rise and fall then fine. But we didn't. Cases rose. And with some variations at the top stayed largely the same. We didn't see the dropping away as we exit that wave. Its just stayed high permanently.
We did see them fall.
Because in the first phase schools were closed, in the second the schools were reopened.
Unless you have come to some perverted belief that schools don't affect transmission? Is that your claim now?
Lol
Covid cases 17th May 2,220 (7 day average). Then after we made changes a big spike and the pogoing highs and lows around the new baseline.
When you say "we did see them fall" it was to 25,722, a mere 11.5x higher than the start. And then up and up and up.
You are being so insane now, May was during restrictions, why the hell would it have to fall beneath the figure that is only achievable with restrictions? What an absurd suggestion (!)
Are you so naive and so unwilling to be realistic now that you can't tell the difference between transmission with schools closed and transmission with schools open now?
16 July 47,970.4 13 September 28,540.4
So the 7 day average halved until the schools went back, that's one wave.
You seem to be in utter denial. First you want us to exit the virus, then you want cases to fall below what they were when we were in lockdown. You just clearly haven't grasped the severity of reality have you?
You're getting irate at others because you're in complete denial.
More belly laughs at my end - this is great! Had it dropped to 28k and kept falling then that would have been great! Instead that was the new floor and then we saw an ever-increasing level of new floors. 28k. 33k, now 51k.
You said "We did see them fall. Because in the first phase schools were closed, in the second the schools were reopened." Yes. And then they went up again. And up some more. And some more.
We replaced the 2k cases a day with mask restrictions with a very best 28k a day and then up and up. If an ever-increasing number of cases is us exiting having cases then black truly is white.
Do keep it up, you're as funny as HYUFD foaming on about Toryism.
"We replaced the 2k cases a day with mask restrictions"
You dishonest twerp. You took the data from when we were in Step 2 of lockdown.
In case you've forgotten by now, Step 2 was when it was illegal for restaurants to be open indoors. Childrens play areas, hotels, sport for fans etc were all closed. It was illegal to be within 2 metres of other people. It was illegal to go into other people's houses.
So yes if you want to have zero integrity, take lockdown Step 2 as your baseline and as "mask restrictions".
"Exiting Covid" and considering legal lockdown as your baseline for "mask restrictions" alone . . . you need to take a time out. You have thrown all your integrity away.
He's a moron, he clearly thinks COVID can be defeated but doesn't want to out himself as a moron.
Um, RP is actually using things you've said in the past against you because in theory the exit wave from July onwards should have resulted in us hitting herd immunity by now - at which point infection numbers should have dropped because there would be very few people left to be infected.
And it's clear that that has happened although it's equally clear that until Omicron arrived R0 was at a steady level of about 1.
But that's exit to endemicity. Exactly what we need to do with COVID. It's what Chris Whitty outlined in the summer. The alternative is actually scary, we kept restrictions, kept cases down to under 5k, only 1-2m get it over the summer and autumn and bang, Omicron arrives with 8-10m people having no vaccine or natural immunity. Even if it hospitalised at a third of the rate of Delta, that's still means 400k-500k unvaccinated people needing hospital treatment in a very short space of time. Natural immunity in that cohort will cut that by 80%. Some European countries who dodged their exit waves are in for a really tough winter, they have got millions and millions of people with zero immunity.
Erm, the data on Omicron and the pants being shat demonstrates that we have the same lack of immunity to Omicron - hence the desperate push to do boosters this month.
Omicron has some immunity escape, its not 100% immunity escape. Jesus Christ. 🤦♂️
Same as reinfections against natural immunity, it is believed to be still low single digits. Its just versus Delta, it is <1%.
The Labour argument is interesting. It's irrelevant how severe omicron is, and how effective the vaccines are at limiting severity. All that matters is that high prevalence will mean lots of NHS staff will have to isolate, and that on it's own justify any restrictions necessary to prevent it.
Glorious catch 22 position. Surely at some point the severity is low enough that they can end the pinging isolation.
I have to say in two years "exit the virus" is surely up there among the most stupid things said about it. That there's anyone who believes that is worrying and the government Comms needs to be updated to warn everyone that we're all going to get it and the best way to decrease likelihood of symptoms is to get vaccinated. There is no other game in town.
I agree! So why do you keep saying we had an exit wave?
Because we did? Immunity and vaccine coverage in the UK is the highest in the world. Despite all of the doom rhetoric from the scientists we're not in any lockdown while most of Europe has got severe restrictions on going anywhere. Omicron may change the game, it may not. But in the summer to now 11-13m people got the virus, 70-80% of them unvaccinated by choice. Would you rather they had zero immunity heading into the Omicron wave?
Don't take my word for it Chris Whitty said it in June. It was and remains the right strategy, everyone is going ti get COVID. Lockdowns and NPIs displace infections, but now the vaccine cavalry is already here, last winter it wasn't so displacement of 1000 infections was ~9.5 lives saved. Today displacement of infections will save close to zero lives, anyone who wants to be can get vaccinated. I walked into a pharmacy with my wife yesterday and we both got our boosters.
Again and again, the only game in town is vaccines. Lockdowns will do nothing because the moment we unlock the virus will be back. Infecting all those same idiots who refused the vaccine. Lockdown to save people who refused the vaccine is immoral, better to tell them to die at home.
The reality is that those who are calling for lockdowns are looking for a legislative safety blanket where none exists.
It has been my view throughout that it is not the role of the state to protect people from a virus. Measures to fundamentally restrict the liberties of e.g. children to 'protect' the very elderly and vulnerable are not IMO morally justified at the current CFR. Excessive safetyism is not a road I want the state to go down.
I am very proud to see so many Tory 'rebel' MPs standing up for liberty today. I would vote exactly the same way.
So I read, I am a foaming lockdown forever advocate. And yet I said days ago I would also vote against. We need measures to sustain businesses who get screwed by the shutdown being caused by Omicron running rampant. Not half-measures and excuses.
We need to see MPs back reviewing the latest data and proposals as they come out - instead Javid is proposing another enabling act where Peppa will rule by decree through the Christmas recess.
Unacceptable.
Or let those of us who want to continue as is, continue.
I'm in my early 30s. As are most of my mates. All of us just want to crack on.
Could you make it any more obvious you think you're invulnerable and you couldn't give a damn about anyone else?
@Chris, I'm in my late 20s so liable to piss you off even more than Mortimer.
The disease appears to be even less dangerous to us than it was before. We've got vaxxed even when it was probably not in our personal interest to do so.
Uni/college students and school pupils have missed out on the education that we all got. And people my age haven't travelled, met partners etc for nearly two years.
Do you give a damn about anyone else?
Not about people who are so self-obsessed that they're willing to put a higher priority on travel, "meeting partners" and respecting their anti-vaccine fantasies than on giving a toss whether other people die or not.
It's not that I think I'm particularly at risk myself. I don't have any particular risk factors and I've had a booster. It's just that people like you turn my stomach with your grotesque selfishness.
Hate to break it to you, @Chris, but none of us are getting out of here alive....
"The country will face an “exit wave” of coronavirus infections whenever restrictions are lifted, England’s chief medical officer has said."
DEMONSTRABLY AN ABUSE OF THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
If we had seen cases rise and fall then fine. But we didn't. Cases rose. And with some variations at the top stayed largely the same. We didn't see the dropping away as we exit that wave. Its just stayed high permanently.
We did see them fall.
Because in the first phase schools were closed, in the second the schools were reopened.
Unless you have come to some perverted belief that schools don't affect transmission? Is that your claim now?
Lol
Covid cases 17th May 2,220 (7 day average). Then after we made changes a big spike and the pogoing highs and lows around the new baseline.
When you say "we did see them fall" it was to 25,722, a mere 11.5x higher than the start. And then up and up and up.
You are being so insane now, May was during restrictions, why the hell would it have to fall beneath the figure that is only achievable with restrictions? What an absurd suggestion (!)
Are you so naive and so unwilling to be realistic now that you can't tell the difference between transmission with schools closed and transmission with schools open now?
16 July 47,970.4 13 September 28,540.4
So the 7 day average halved until the schools went back, that's one wave.
You seem to be in utter denial. First you want us to exit the virus, then you want cases to fall below what they were when we were in lockdown. You just clearly haven't grasped the severity of reality have you?
You're getting irate at others because you're in complete denial.
More belly laughs at my end - this is great! Had it dropped to 28k and kept falling then that would have been great! Instead that was the new floor and then we saw an ever-increasing level of new floors. 28k. 33k, now 51k.
You said "We did see them fall. Because in the first phase schools were closed, in the second the schools were reopened." Yes. And then they went up again. And up some more. And some more.
We replaced the 2k cases a day with mask restrictions with a very best 28k a day and then up and up. If an ever-increasing number of cases is us exiting having cases then black truly is white.
Do keep it up, you're as funny as HYUFD foaming on about Toryism.
"We replaced the 2k cases a day with mask restrictions"
You dishonest twerp. You took the data from when we were in Step 2 of lockdown.
In case you've forgotten by now, Step 2 was when it was illegal for restaurants to be open indoors. Childrens play areas, hotels, sport for fans etc were all closed. It was illegal to be within 2 metres of other people. It was illegal to go into other people's houses.
So yes if you want to have zero integrity, take lockdown Step 2 as your baseline and as "mask restrictions".
"Exiting Covid" and considering legal lockdown as your baseline for "mask restrictions" alone . . . you need to take a time out. You have thrown all your integrity away.
He's a moron, he clearly thinks COVID can be defeated but doesn't want to out himself as a moron.
Um, RP is actually using things you've said in the past against you because in theory the exit wave from July onwards should have resulted in us hitting herd immunity by now - at which point infection numbers should have dropped because there would be very few people left to be infected.
And it's clear that that has happened although it's equally clear that until Omicron arrived R0 was at a steady level of about 1.
But that's exit to endemicity. Exactly what we need to do with COVID. It's what Chris Whitty outlined in the summer. The alternative is actually scary, we kept restrictions, kept cases down to under 5k, only 1-2m get it over the summer and autumn and bang, Omicron arrives with 8-10m people having no vaccine or natural immunity. Even if it hospitalised at a third of the rate of Delta, that's still means 400k-500k unvaccinated people needing hospital treatment in a very short space of time. Natural immunity in that cohort will cut that by 80%. Some European countries who dodged their exit waves are in for a really tough winter, they have got millions and millions of people with zero immunity.
Erm, the data on Omicron and the pants being shat demonstrates that we have the same lack of immunity to Omicron - hence the desperate push to do boosters this month.
Omicron has some immunity escape, its not 100% immunity escape. Jesus Christ. 🤦♂️
Some immunity escape means we are no longer sat on 40-50,000 cases a day but a higher number that many people seem to expect to get way higher over the next 2 weeks.
Indeed, it is what it is.
We had our exit wave from restrictions in the summer. Then a follow on wave when schools reopened. Then an autumn wave, finally a winter wave. There was always likely to be a winter wave, even without Omicron.
Given the way Omicron is spreading so fast, we'll likely have a high Omicron winter wave, then things will start to turn around. We'll have had that, then we'll be moving on to the spring and summer next year.
The sooner we get through this Omicron wave the better in my opinion. No point dragging it out, but yes I expect it'll be higher than 40k. C'est la vie.
Comments
From 4am on Weds 15 Dec, ALL 11 countries will be removed from England's travel red list #Internationaltravel (1/3)
https://twitter.com/grantshapps/status/1470761568438833160?s=20
If nothing else, you have the feedback loop from people reading https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk etc and changing their behaviour according to what they read.....
200 million people and they have about as much COVID most days as a small town in Devon.
https://order-order.com/2021/12/14/covid-sweeping-through-westminster/
You dishonest twerp. You took the data from when we were in Step 2 of lockdown.
In case you've forgotten by now, Step 2 was when it was illegal for restaurants to be open indoors. Childrens play areas, hotels, sport for fans etc were all closed. It was illegal to be within 2 metres of other people. It was illegal to go into other people's houses.
So yes if you want to have zero integrity, take lockdown Step 2 as your baseline and as "mask restrictions".
"Exiting Covid" and considering legal lockdown as your baseline for "mask restrictions" alone . . . you need to take a time out. You have thrown all your integrity away.
18 months. What do we think? I'm not sure why the driver wasn't prosecuted for attempted murder.
Plus a much higher tolerance for death from avoidable disease. That, and the lack of any real expectations of living to 80, let alone being active at that age.
There is also the issue that the men travel into towns to work, where centres only open certain hours, then there is also a cultural issue of women aren't to be leaving the village and going there on their own. The report was talking about mobile units going out into the villages, but they don't have access to vehicles every day etc.
Here we all are talking about COVID and vaccines 24/7 again, rather than the egregious inadequacies of our government.
It's been said before, but, Boris is a lucky, lucky general.
In the UK since lifting lockdown the ground level for Covid's spread has been rising: Schools reopened, summer ended, winter began. And yet despite the ground level rising, the cases have been flat. Why?
The only reason the cases have been flat despite the higher ground level, is that the prior wave had just happened.
Imagine if it was the other way around, starting in winter with schools open, then going into spring, then summer, then the schools closed over summer holidays - if cases were flat over that, then you'd be confused why.
To have cases flat, while the ground level to boost Covid is getting higher, is proof that the wave had happened, not proof it didn't.
Big question from me though is, even if we got lucky this time, what if the next mutation is just as contagious and vaccine-evading, but far more deadly?
When we say this is endemic, do we mean we're just waiting for a variant to come along that will finish most of us all off, be it next year or a few years down the line?
You don't think so?
And it's clear that that has happened although it's equally clear that until Omicron arrived R0 was at a steady level of about 1.
Not "one of them."
Aside from the sentence.
3 year ban? For a man prepared to use his vehicle as a weapon?
If it had been a gun, would he ever be allowed one again? I think not.
As I say repeatedly, I am not a virologist, scientist or medic who can speak with any authority on this.
So I defer to those who do know what they are talking about.
Such as the London School for Hygene and Tropical Medicine.
Who in a report cited by you proposed something you now define as making me a moron.
*giggles*
Not today.
It has been my view throughout that it is not the role of the state to protect people from a virus. Measures to fundamentally restrict the liberties of e.g. children to 'protect' the very elderly and vulnerable are not IMO morally justified at the current CFR. Excessive safetyism is not a road I want the state to go down.
I am very proud to see so many Tory 'rebel' MPs standing up for liberty today. I would vote exactly the same way.
R0 of 1 or below is herd immunity.
We need to see MPs back reviewing the latest data and proposals as they come out - instead Javid is proposing another enabling act where Peppa will rule by decree through the Christmas recess.
Unacceptable.
Look at it another way: six months ago, was anyone predicting an "exit wave" that got stuck around 50k cases reported per day for months on end, if restrictions lifted?
I'm in my early 30s. As are most of my mates. All of us just want to crack on.
'We are demanding you consider your position Prime Minister' is all that needs saying
However. Can nurses, delivery drivers, factory workers work from home?
If not, are they capable of working on site?
This was an exponential disease, now it isn't, that is herd immunity achieved.
If herd immunity wasn't achieved then 300k one week would have been 600k the next. 300k one week, then 300k the next is herd immunity stable state as opposed to exponential growth.
Now we would be extraordinarily unlucky to see something like SARS emerge anytime soon, but with a very high number of cases the possibility of a more dangerous variant is a real one, and one that we should prepare for now.
I think this is another case of "With cars, it is completely different" - it's as if there is a special sentencing section for "done with a car"
You would have thought that the concept of a car as a weapon had been demonstrated well enough recently.
Why is it OK to terrorise cyclists but not pedestrians?
What you really needed to do was to collect the usage of the phrases, per day, and plot some graphs. With error bars.
Then you could have published a scientific paper on "Peak Peak".
Plus you owe me - a) terms of a bet that Omicron cases will reach 800k/day; and b) what you would do over the next 1-18 months.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D14QuUL8x60
The wave was supposed to be a spike up but that never happened in the way that was predicted, but once you reach stability that is post-wave.
But I don't see the point now in half-baked restrictions. The only shot they had to stop this was hard lockdown. We've never had a hard lockdown, we wouldn't accept one now, its a non-starter. If its as bad as they say it it you and your mates will end up caught in the shutdown. We don't need a lockdown. Or it isn't as bad as they say and we'll be ok.
Either way, we should not be passing the enabling bill today to let Peppa rule by decree.
COPENHAGEN (Reuters) - Denmark will move forward the third coronavirus vaccination shot for people over the age of 40 to 4-1/2 months after the second shot, the health authority said on Monday.
The move to offer the booster shot earlier than the six months initially planned comes amid rising infection numbers and concern over the Omicron coronavirus variant.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-denmark-vaccine/denmark-cuts-covid-19-booster-shot-interval-to-4-1-2-months-idUSKBN2IS0RR
The disease appears to be even less dangerous to us than it was before. We've got vaxxed even when it was probably not in our personal interest to do so.
Uni/college students and school pupils have missed out on the education that we all got. And people my age haven't travelled, met partners etc for nearly two years.
Do you give a damn about anyone else?
+50% week on week still slightly disappointing though given that would only take us to an average of 600k per day.
Scratches head.
Really fascinating video, thank you.
It is quite surprising how many people think that everyone has that.
*If anyone is working from homeland think about their setup - big monitors are dropping in price massively. The arm to carry my one was about £70. Aside from being better than 2 x 17" monitors, the whole setup was cheaper - arms for multiple monitors are very expensive. And an arm is vital for getting proper adjust meant height.
1) Mildness of symptoms - especially in the young and vaxxed
2) People have heard the horror stories of the pestering track and trace give you if you get a positive pcr
3) Positive mental attitude - I've been seeing and hearing far more coughs and sneezes recently on my travels. People have got over the fear of any symptoms and so will be disregarding things
4) The terribly slow to respond state messaging - people are STILL obsessed with hand washing; is it any wonder that people won't have noticed the changed info re: new symptoms
etc etc
Omicron has some immunity escape, its not 100% immunity escape. Jesus Christ. 🤦♂️
"I was observing the motion of a boat which was rapidly drawn along a narrow channel by a pair of horses, when the boat suddenly stopped – not so the mass of water in the channel which it had put in motion; it accumulated round the prow of the vessel in a state of violent agitation, then suddenly leaving it behind, rolled forward with great velocity, assuming the form of a large solitary elevation, a rounded, smooth and well-defined heap of water, which continued its course along the channel apparently without change of form or diminution of speed. I followed it on horseback, and overtook it still rolling on at a rate of some eight or nine miles an hour, preserving its original figure some thirty feet long and a foot to a foot and a half in height. Its height gradually diminished, and after a chase of one or two miles I lost it in the windings of the channel. Such, in the month of August 1834, was my first chance interview with that singular and beautiful phenomenon which I have called the Wave of Translation."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soliton
Mrs Eek has her work laptop but doesn't have a second screen as although I have spares she doesn't want it and because of her work setup via RDS it would be completely pointless anyway)
It's not that I think I'm particularly at risk myself. I don't have any particular risk factors and I've had a booster. It's just that people like you turn my stomach with your grotesque selfishness.
Glorious catch 22 position. Surely at some point the severity is low enough that they can end the pinging isolation.
We had our exit wave from restrictions in the summer. Then a follow on wave when schools reopened. Then an autumn wave, finally a winter wave. There was always likely to be a winter wave, even without Omicron.
Given the way Omicron is spreading so fast, we'll likely have a high Omicron winter wave, then things will start to turn around. We'll have had that, then we'll be moving on to the spring and summer next year.
The sooner we get through this Omicron wave the better in my opinion. No point dragging it out, but yes I expect it'll be higher than 40k. C'est la vie.
This will allow 500,000 more boosters
So far 17 people have had anaphylactic reactions during the observation period. None fatal
Pretty understandable trade-off
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/suspension-of-the-15-minute-wait-for-vaccination-with-mrna-vaccine-for-covid-19-uk-cmos-opinion/suspension-of-the-15-minute-wait-for-vaccination-with-mrna-vaccine-for-covid-19-uk-cmos-opinion
Thank you to everyone coming forward to #GetBoostedNow
https://twitter.com/sajidjavid/status/1470770357984505857?s=20
Good idea.