I was due to start a High Court case today, the Jury having been empanelled yesterday. The trial did not proceed because an essential Crown Witness had a positive lateral flow test after being in contact with 3 other friends who had positive tests after a night out last week.
At the moment the trial is adjourned to tomorrow to allow a PCR test to be done but I will frankly be amazed if even remote juries are allowed to continue at present. We are asking 15 jurors plus sundry staff to stay in the same room as each other for maybe 7 hours a day. We know for a fact that Omicron is at least 3x more infective than Delta. We do not know if social distancing, which seemed to work for Delta, will work. The reasonable assumption is that it won't. And we have the PM telling us that a "tidal wave" of cases is coming in the next few weeks.
I think that is a completely unreasonable thing to ask of a juror. I think we should abandon trials this month and at least the first half of next. I think we need to think seriously about whether schools should have an extended break too. This "tidal wave" threatens our health service. We need to be realistic about what is needed to reduce the height of the wave.
As for those voting against the restrictions in the Commons today, words simply fail me. They are not accepting the seriousness of the situation. Having said words fail me, my opening bid would be irresponsible.
Shocked I tell you, absolutely shocked, on her take...LOCKDOWN NOW....
Prof Reicher says people should be clearly told "don't socialise" or govt could legislate to ensure they do. Reicher says govt should use any time during restrictions to make environments safer, i.e. ventilation etc. If it doesn't it will have "squandered" that time
iSAGE are back with a bang. We need 12 years more Lockdown until every home has been fitted with high grade ventilation systems...
Nobody is arguing for lockdown forever, even people who seem to be a bit shrieky.
Reality is that we have a valid point here - months of 40k new cases a day is not a positive...
You've been wrong for months. It is a fantastic positive.
You still seem to fail to understand that it was an exit wave too. It was both an exit (from restrictions) and a wave (since the 40k was with schools closed, then schools open, without an exponential increase when schools reopened).
Yes, this is a new definition of the words "exit" and "wave".
I predicted this path of the briefings last week...it is all now so predictable how the game is played. And it was crystal clear that Witty wanted a lot more than the Plan B.
The only question now is does Boris buckle now and cancel Christmas or do we get a lockdown at the start of January.
I was due to start a High Court case today, the Jury having been empanelled yesterday. The trial did not proceed because an essential Crown Witness had a positive lateral flow test after being in contact with 3 other friends who had positive tests after a night out last week.
At the moment the trial is adjourned to tomorrow to allow a PCR test to be done but I will frankly be amazed if even remote juries are allowed to continue at present. We are asking 15 jurors plus sundry staff to stay in the same room as each other for maybe 7 hours a day. We know for a fact that Omicron is at least 3x more infective than Delta. We do not know if social distancing, which seemed to work for Delta, will work. The reasonable assumption is that it won't. And we have the PM telling us that a "tidal wave" of cases is coming in the next few weeks.
I think that is a completely unreasonable thing to ask of a juror. I think we should abandon trials this month and at least the first half of next. I think we need to think seriously about whether schools should have an extended break too. This "tidal wave" threatens our health service. We need to be realistic about what is needed to reduce the height of the wave.
As for those voting against the restrictions in the Commons today, words simply fail me. They are not accepting the seriousness of the situation. Having said words fail me, my opening bid would be irresponsible.
Were I a tory MP I would actually be voting against the proposals because the plan B are frankly completely useless at reducing R0 but still cause economic harm.
Someone elsewhere argued that it would be easier for Boris to sell a full lockdown and I actually do agree with that except I suspect even a full lockdown won't help with Omicron.
Shocked I tell you, absolutely shocked, on her take...LOCKDOWN NOW....
Prof Reicher says people should be clearly told "don't socialise" or govt could legislate to ensure they do. Reicher says govt should use any time during restrictions to make environments safer, i.e. ventilation etc. If it doesn't it will have "squandered" that time
iSAGE are back with a bang. We need 12 years more Lockdown until every home has been fitted with high grade ventilation systems...
Nobody is arguing for lockdown forever, even people who seem to be a bit shrieky.
Reality is that we have a valid point here - months of 40k new cases a day is not a positive...
You've been wrong for months. It is a fantastic positive.
You still seem to fail to understand that it was an exit wave too. It was both an exit (from restrictions) and a wave (since the 40k was with schools closed, then schools open, without an exponential increase when schools reopened).
Phil, whatever else we can describe the last few months it certainly hasn't been an "exit wave".
@Benpointer - I could always reduce it to 2^19-1 which is a Mersenne prime so that makes it an attractive choice for me, but since we seem to be expecting millions I bumped it up a bit
Just been for booster - queuing for a drop in centre that also takes bookings is a VERY frustrating experience.
Anyway, given the RSA data out this morning, if hospitalisations are much less likely to need ICU, surely now is the time to be reopening nighingale hospitals with very thin staffing ratios to deal with all the low key hospitalisations and leave real hospitals for the hopefully few serious cases.
That requires nurses the NHS doesn't have.
When people talk about bed crisis / ward closures it's not because of beds breaking - it's a lack of staff to do the work.
That's why I said thinning ratios. If this is a crisis then I'm afraid they need to make some uncomfortable choices.
The data suggests if there is a tidal wave of hospitalisations, they will skew milder than before. So create facilities with lots of beds but half the usual staffing levels and make the best of it - or if it isn't serious enough for hard choices like that, don't flap around trying to act like the world is ending.
Bingo!
And get rid of the distancing that's reduced capacity within the NHS too.
"Oh we have a capacity issue due to this virus, why don't we reduce capacity further, that will help!"
Nightingales would significantly reduce hospital pressure but acting as triage for marginal cases who just want to know assistance is nearby whilst they're struggling to breathe, but don't actually need intensive intervention yet. Far more bang for buck on the scarce human resource limting factor.
Unless...Boris' intention really is to front it out and do nothing more than get boosters.
I'm not sure any legislation could be passed right now so unless Boris cedes government to the Labour Party he will have to start formulating and following policies that please his own parliamentary party.
Without wanting to sounds like HYUFD: Good!
There must be an incredible proportion of the Tory non-payroll vote today that has signalled a willingness to revolt. Even if the vote isn't lost, its fantastic to see the backbenchers putting the Prime Minister on notice like that.
Its a shame we haven't got an Opposition though. What a disgrace.
SNP don't count? Unless you mean HMO as in Largest Opposing Party?
So the SNP are going to vote against English regulations at the same time as Nicola is announcing even more draconian steps in Scotland? Surely not.
"Ah but the restrictions announced by the Scottish Government are logical and measured, unlike the knee-jerk gibberish from Westminster. I mean, vaxports! What a stupid proposal"
I have a Scottish vaxport on my phone. Won't do me any good if we come to Newcastle at the weekend mind, as the systems don't speak to each other (bit like the governments but more annoying). My son, who is at University in England, keeps getting stroppy messages about coming for his vaccines despite having had 2 already as a result.
Shocked I tell you, absolutely shocked, on her take...LOCKDOWN NOW....
Prof Reicher says people should be clearly told "don't socialise" or govt could legislate to ensure they do. Reicher says govt should use any time during restrictions to make environments safer, i.e. ventilation etc. If it doesn't it will have "squandered" that time
iSAGE are back with a bang. We need 12 years more Lockdown until every home has been fitted with high grade ventilation systems...
Nobody is arguing for lockdown forever, even people who seem to be a bit shrieky.
Reality is that we have a valid point here - months of 40k new cases a day is not a positive...
You've been wrong for months. It is a fantastic positive.
You still seem to fail to understand that it was an exit wave too. It was both an exit (from restrictions) and a wave (since the 40k was with schools closed, then schools open, without an exponential increase when schools reopened).
Yes, this is a new definition of the words "exit" and "wave".
As you wish.
We exited restrictions, under what twisted meaning of the word "exit" is exiting restrictions not an exit?
And as for wave, yes it was a wave. We managed to get the exit wave done during the school closures, so that when schools reopened the cases didn't start exponentially growing.
Had we not had the exit wave, we would have had exponential growth when schools opened in September.
Much more pissed off with Boris today than I am with Sturgeon. Her capacity to scunner me dissipated long ago along with her dreams of #indyref2 - Boris I expected, or at least hoped for, better from https://twitter.com/IainMcGill/status/1470745345600671747
For context, Iain is the "unluckiest Scottish Tory candidate in history"
Shocked I tell you, absolutely shocked, on her take...LOCKDOWN NOW....
Prof Reicher says people should be clearly told "don't socialise" or govt could legislate to ensure they do. Reicher says govt should use any time during restrictions to make environments safer, i.e. ventilation etc. If it doesn't it will have "squandered" that time
iSAGE are back with a bang. We need 12 years more Lockdown until every home has been fitted with high grade ventilation systems...
Nobody is arguing for lockdown forever, even people who seem to be a bit shrieky.
Reality is that we have a valid point here - months of 40k new cases a day is not a positive...
You've been wrong for months. It is a fantastic positive.
You still seem to fail to understand that it was an exit wave too. It was both an exit (from restrictions) and a wave (since the 40k was with schools closed, then schools open, without an exponential increase when schools reopened).
Phil, whatever else we can describe the last few months it certainly hasn't been an "exit wave".
30k+ a day for 4 months is remarkable consistent but it's definitely not an exit wave more a new background figure.
Shocked I tell you, absolutely shocked, on her take...LOCKDOWN NOW....
Prof Reicher says people should be clearly told "don't socialise" or govt could legislate to ensure they do. Reicher says govt should use any time during restrictions to make environments safer, i.e. ventilation etc. If it doesn't it will have "squandered" that time
iSAGE are back with a bang. We need 12 years more Lockdown until every home has been fitted with high grade ventilation systems...
Nobody is arguing for lockdown forever, even people who seem to be a bit shrieky.
Reality is that we have a valid point here - months of 40k new cases a day is not a positive...
You've been wrong for months. It is a fantastic positive.
You still seem to fail to understand that it was an exit wave too. It was both an exit (from restrictions) and a wave (since the 40k was with schools closed, then schools open, without an exponential increase when schools reopened).
Phil, whatever else we can describe the last few months it certainly hasn't been an "exit wave".
The only way to describe it as that. We exited restrictions, that is by definition the exit.
We then had a wave, or more two waves. Wave one happened while schools were closed, then we had a second wave amongst kids when schools reopened which didn't see exponential growth because the prior wave had just happened.
One other thing. If Whitty is briefing the cabinet the NHS is going to collapse in four weeks, why isn’t he briefing the country. Why aren’t we having a No.10 briefing. This is the most dire warning we’ve had since the start of the whole crisis isn’t it? https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1470746320180817921
Without a comparison to Delta, that anecdote is meaningless.
The thing is both can be true....it is why I worried about how much press the GP from South Africa has been getting pushing the "its mild" narrative.
It can be statistically less dangerous in population terms, but still mean significant people suffer terribly from it, but that isn't how the public hear talk of milder disease. Same as original "90% only get mild disease" from Wuhan report, meant 90% didn't need to go to hospital, but the public took it as meaning oh I am going to get a cold.
What the hell are the South Africans supposed to say? Their experiences and Delta tell them that it's milder in terms of outcomes than Delta and indeed the original strain. If they think that, they have to say it. They are not "pushing" anything, rather they are laying down their assessment as professionals in the field.
The thing is that we saw in India the horrific images of hospitals collapsing, doctors crying out for oxygen, funeral pyres in the streets and so on.
Italy in February 2000 and India a year later provided utterly horrific imagery. There's nothing like that coming out of South Africa, is there?
Remarkable how many global citizens operate in a little England bubble for their information. If they’re wetting their pants about omciron, why aren’t they reading South African news and seeing what’s happening (or not) there?
I was due to start a High Court case today, the Jury having been empanelled yesterday. The trial did not proceed because an essential Crown Witness had a positive lateral flow test after being in contact with 3 other friends who had positive tests after a night out last week.
At the moment the trial is adjourned to tomorrow to allow a PCR test to be done but I will frankly be amazed if even remote juries are allowed to continue at present. We are asking 15 jurors plus sundry staff to stay in the same room as each other for maybe 7 hours a day. We know for a fact that Omicron is at least 3x more infective than Delta. We do not know if social distancing, which seemed to work for Delta, will work. The reasonable assumption is that it won't. And we have the PM telling us that a "tidal wave" of cases is coming in the next few weeks.
I think that is a completely unreasonable thing to ask of a juror. I think we should abandon trials this month and at least the first half of next. I think we need to think seriously about whether schools should have an extended break too. This "tidal wave" threatens our health service. We need to be realistic about what is needed to reduce the height of the wave.
As for those voting against the restrictions in the Commons today, words simply fail me. They are not accepting the seriousness of the situation. Having said words fail me, my opening bid would be irresponsible.
Some posters think that fact-based posts like this are hysterical. They are not. We won't need lockdown, we're going to have shutdown as has just happened with your trial.
I was due to start a High Court case today, the Jury having been empanelled yesterday. The trial did not proceed because an essential Crown Witness had a positive lateral flow test after being in contact with 3 other friends who had positive tests after a night out last week.
At the moment the trial is adjourned to tomorrow to allow a PCR test to be done but I will frankly be amazed if even remote juries are allowed to continue at present. We are asking 15 jurors plus sundry staff to stay in the same room as each other for maybe 7 hours a day. We know for a fact that Omicron is at least 3x more infective than Delta. We do not know if social distancing, which seemed to work for Delta, will work. The reasonable assumption is that it won't. And we have the PM telling us that a "tidal wave" of cases is coming in the next few weeks.
I think that is a completely unreasonable thing to ask of a juror. I think we should abandon trials this month and at least the first half of next. I think we need to think seriously about whether schools should have an extended break too. This "tidal wave" threatens our health service. We need to be realistic about what is needed to reduce the height of the wave.
As for those voting against the restrictions in the Commons today, words simply fail me. They are not accepting the seriousness of the situation. Having said words fail me, my opening bid would be irresponsible.
Were I a tory MP I would actually be voting against the proposals because the plan B are frankly completely useless at reducing R0 but still cause economic harm.
Someone elsewhere argued that it would be easier for Boris to sell a full lockdown and I actually do agree with that except I suspect even a full lockdown won't help with Omicron.
And not only will Plan B cause economic harm but will do so without compensating support (though I note that the employment stats are very strong) - as well as their being inconsistent, contradictory and inadequate to the intent.
I too would be voting against: these measures are neither one thing nor the other. The govt won't lose but if it did, it should be told to come back and do it properly (which is why Labour should vote against - the alternative isn't 'nothing').
As someone who sat through the South African Omicron media briefing this morning and discussed findings with authors, it's been ... interesting ... to watch the plethora of often wildly different interpretations that have come out on here in the last couple of hours
Just been for booster - queuing for a drop in centre that also takes bookings is a VERY frustrating experience.
Anyway, given the RSA data out this morning, if hospitalisations are much less likely to need ICU, surely now is the time to be reopening nighingale hospitals with very thin staffing ratios to deal with all the low key hospitalisations and leave real hospitals for the hopefully few serious cases.
That requires nurses the NHS doesn't have.
When people talk about bed crisis / ward closures it's not because of beds breaking - it's a lack of staff to do the work.
That's why I said thinning ratios. If this is a crisis then I'm afraid they need to make some uncomfortable choices.
The data suggests if there is a tidal wave of hospitalisations, they will skew milder than before. So create facilities with lots of beds but half the usual staffing levels and make the best of it - or if it isn't serious enough for hard choices like that, don't flap around trying to act like the world is ending.
Bingo!
And get rid of the distancing that's reduced capacity within the NHS too.
"Oh we have a capacity issue due to this virus, why don't we reduce capacity further, that will help!"
Nightingales would significantly reduce hospital pressure but acting as triage for marginal cases who just want to know assistance is nearby whilst they're struggling to breathe, but don't actually need intensive intervention yet. Far more bang for buck on the scarce human resource limting factor.
Unless...Boris' intention really is to front it out and do nothing more than get boosters.
I'm not sure any legislation could be passed right now so unless Boris cedes government to the Labour Party he will have to start formulating and following policies that please his own parliamentary party.
Without wanting to sounds like HYUFD: Good!
There must be an incredible proportion of the Tory non-payroll vote today that has signalled a willingness to revolt. Even if the vote isn't lost, its fantastic to see the backbenchers putting the Prime Minister on notice like that.
Its a shame we haven't got an Opposition though. What a disgrace.
SNP don't count? Unless you mean HMO as in Largest Opposing Party?
So the SNP are going to vote against English regulations at the same time as Nicola is announcing even more draconian steps in Scotland? Surely not.
"Ah but the restrictions announced by the Scottish Government are logical and measured, unlike the knee-jerk gibberish from Westminster. I mean, vaxports! What a stupid proposal"
I have a Scottish vaxport on my phone. Won't do me any good if we come to Newcastle at the weekend mind, as the systems don't speak to each other (bit like the governments but more annoying). My son, who is at University in England, keeps getting stroppy messages about coming for his vaccines despite having had 2 already as a result.
From my experience using the Scottish app in England you will be fine. A vague glance at the screen and in you go.
Downing Street’s public position is there is a “tidal wave” and “huge spike” of Omicron cases coming but the PM is not considering further measures beyond Plan B and more boosters. 🧐 https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1470743202974031888
That's not an inconsistent position if the expectation is that the tidal wave/spike of cases will result only in a manageable increase in hospitalisations.
One other thing. If Whitty is briefing the cabinet the NHS is going to collapse in four weeks, why isn’t he briefing the country. Why aren’t we having a No.10 briefing. This is the most dire warning we’ve had since the start of the whole crisis isn’t it? https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1470746320180817921
I said the other day, I reckon there has been a massive bust up. Witty wanted a lockdown, the government said no we are going with Plan B. Witty wanted a lockdown, the government said we are going with rapid booster programme.
When they announced Plan B, he really emphasised that he wasn't him, it was the cabinet that signed it off, and now here is some really scary data from South Africa....
Only a straw in the wind, but a couple of Tory "rebels" have told me they now plan to vote with the govt, partly because they don't want to be in the same division lobby as Marcus "Nazi Germany" Fysh. Wonder if the rebellion will hit the 80 or so predicted..lots of abstentions? https://twitter.com/GeorgeWParker/status/1470747075696594944
Shocked I tell you, absolutely shocked, on her take...LOCKDOWN NOW....
Prof Reicher says people should be clearly told "don't socialise" or govt could legislate to ensure they do. Reicher says govt should use any time during restrictions to make environments safer, i.e. ventilation etc. If it doesn't it will have "squandered" that time
iSAGE are back with a bang. We need 12 years more Lockdown until every home has been fitted with high grade ventilation systems...
Nobody is arguing for lockdown forever, even people who seem to be a bit shrieky.
Reality is that we have a valid point here - months of 40k new cases a day is not a positive...
You've been wrong for months. It is a fantastic positive.
You still seem to fail to understand that it was an exit wave too. It was both an exit (from restrictions) and a wave (since the 40k was with schools closed, then schools open, without an exponential increase when schools reopened).
Yes, this is a new definition of the words "exit" and "wave".
As you wish.
We exited restrictions, under what twisted meaning of the word "exit" is exiting restrictions not an exit?
And as for wave, yes it was a wave. We managed to get the exit wave done during the school closures, so that when schools reopened the cases didn't start exponentially growing.
Had we not had the exit wave, we would have had exponential growth when schools opened in September.
We're talking about exiting *the virus*, not restrictions. You being able to tit about as you wish isn't impacting the NHS which is what we are talking about.
As a wave? Compare and contrast the shape of an actual wave and the infection numbers. Neither a wave, nor an exit. But as long as *other people* die thanks to your quest for liberty, you are happy.
Shocked I tell you, absolutely shocked, on her take...LOCKDOWN NOW....
Prof Reicher says people should be clearly told "don't socialise" or govt could legislate to ensure they do. Reicher says govt should use any time during restrictions to make environments safer, i.e. ventilation etc. If it doesn't it will have "squandered" that time
iSAGE are back with a bang. We need 12 years more Lockdown until every home has been fitted with high grade ventilation systems...
Nobody is arguing for lockdown forever, even people who seem to be a bit shrieky.
Reality is that we have a valid point here - months of 40k new cases a day is not a positive...
You've been wrong for months. It is a fantastic positive.
You still seem to fail to understand that it was an exit wave too. It was both an exit (from restrictions) and a wave (since the 40k was with schools closed, then schools open, without an exponential increase when schools reopened).
Phil, whatever else we can describe the last few months it certainly hasn't been an "exit wave".
The only way to describe it as that. We exited restrictions, that is by definition the exit.
We then had a wave, or more two waves. Wave one happened while schools were closed, then we had a second wave amongst kids when schools reopened which didn't see exponential growth because the prior wave had just happened.
That's just an abuse of language, what the Gov't is or isn't doing at any point in time doesn't have much to do with the epidemiologically well known "exit wave" terminology.
The exit wave for delta may well be incoming with the arrival of omicron - and that will be at a point when we're putting up more restrictions.
Its worth remembering 70% of cases have been unvaccinated people and the hospitalisations / deaths are proportionally massively tilted towards that group.
Should we have carried on restrictions just to keep the unvaccinated safe?
Shocked I tell you, absolutely shocked, on her take...LOCKDOWN NOW....
Prof Reicher says people should be clearly told "don't socialise" or govt could legislate to ensure they do. Reicher says govt should use any time during restrictions to make environments safer, i.e. ventilation etc. If it doesn't it will have "squandered" that time
iSAGE are back with a bang. We need 12 years more Lockdown until every home has been fitted with high grade ventilation systems...
Nobody is arguing for lockdown forever, even people who seem to be a bit shrieky.
Reality is that we have a valid point here - months of 40k new cases a day is not a positive...
You've been wrong for months. It is a fantastic positive.
You still seem to fail to understand that it was an exit wave too. It was both an exit (from restrictions) and a wave (since the 40k was with schools closed, then schools open, without an exponential increase when schools reopened).
Yes, this is a new definition of the words "exit" and "wave".
As you wish.
We exited restrictions, under what twisted meaning of the word "exit" is exiting restrictions not an exit?
And as for wave, yes it was a wave. We managed to get the exit wave done during the school closures, so that when schools reopened the cases didn't start exponentially growing.
Had we not had the exit wave, we would have had exponential growth when schools opened in September.
We're talking about exiting *the virus*, not restrictions. You being able to tit about as you wish isn't impacting the NHS which is what we are talking about.
As a wave? Compare and contrast the shape of an actual wave and the infection numbers. Neither a wave, nor an exit. But as long as *other people* die thanks to your quest for liberty, you are happy.
Nice.
“Exit the virus”. It must be a nice view from on top of your unicorn.
Shocked I tell you, absolutely shocked, on her take...LOCKDOWN NOW....
Prof Reicher says people should be clearly told "don't socialise" or govt could legislate to ensure they do. Reicher says govt should use any time during restrictions to make environments safer, i.e. ventilation etc. If it doesn't it will have "squandered" that time
iSAGE are back with a bang. We need 12 years more Lockdown until every home has been fitted with high grade ventilation systems...
Nobody is arguing for lockdown forever, even people who seem to be a bit shrieky.
Reality is that we have a valid point here - months of 40k new cases a day is not a positive...
You've been wrong for months. It is a fantastic positive.
You still seem to fail to understand that it was an exit wave too. It was both an exit (from restrictions) and a wave (since the 40k was with schools closed, then schools open, without an exponential increase when schools reopened).
Phil, whatever else we can describe the last few months it certainly hasn't been an "exit wave".
30k+ a day for 4 months is remarkable consistent but it's definitely not an exit wave more a new background figure.
Its worth remembering 70% of cases have been unvaccinated people and the hospitalisations / deaths are proportionally massively tilted towards that group.
I was due to start a High Court case today, the Jury having been empanelled yesterday. The trial did not proceed because an essential Crown Witness had a positive lateral flow test after being in contact with 3 other friends who had positive tests after a night out last week.
At the moment the trial is adjourned to tomorrow to allow a PCR test to be done but I will frankly be amazed if even remote juries are allowed to continue at present. We are asking 15 jurors plus sundry staff to stay in the same room as each other for maybe 7 hours a day. We know for a fact that Omicron is at least 3x more infective than Delta. We do not know if social distancing, which seemed to work for Delta, will work. The reasonable assumption is that it won't. And we have the PM telling us that a "tidal wave" of cases is coming in the next few weeks.
I think that is a completely unreasonable thing to ask of a juror. I think we should abandon trials this month and at least the first half of next. I think we need to think seriously about whether schools should have an extended break too. This "tidal wave" threatens our health service. We need to be realistic about what is needed to reduce the height of the wave.
As for those voting against the restrictions in the Commons today, words simply fail me. They are not accepting the seriousness of the situation. Having said words fail me, my opening bid would be irresponsible.
Were I a tory MP I would actually be voting against the proposals because the plan B are frankly completely useless at reducing R0 but still cause economic harm.
Someone elsewhere argued that it would be easier for Boris to sell a full lockdown and I actually do agree with that except I suspect even a full lockdown won't help with Omicron.
If I were a Tory MP I would be criticising plan B for not being enough but I would not vote against the little the government is proposing to do.
Its worth remembering 70% of cases have been unvaccinated people and the hospitalisations / deaths are proportionally massively tilted towards that group.
What do you mean by "cases"?
Cases as tracked by Tim Spector....which is modelled based upon official data and their own testing / numbers.
Its only a rough estimate, but unvaccinated people have consistently made up a big chunk, far in excess of the proportion of the population. Same with hospitalisations.
Shocked I tell you, absolutely shocked, on her take...LOCKDOWN NOW....
Prof Reicher says people should be clearly told "don't socialise" or govt could legislate to ensure they do. Reicher says govt should use any time during restrictions to make environments safer, i.e. ventilation etc. If it doesn't it will have "squandered" that time
iSAGE are back with a bang. We need 12 years more Lockdown until every home has been fitted with high grade ventilation systems...
Nobody is arguing for lockdown forever, even people who seem to be a bit shrieky.
Reality is that we have a valid point here - months of 40k new cases a day is not a positive...
You've been wrong for months. It is a fantastic positive.
You still seem to fail to understand that it was an exit wave too. It was both an exit (from restrictions) and a wave (since the 40k was with schools closed, then schools open, without an exponential increase when schools reopened).
Yes, this is a new definition of the words "exit" and "wave".
As you wish.
We exited restrictions, under what twisted meaning of the word "exit" is exiting restrictions not an exit?
And as for wave, yes it was a wave. We managed to get the exit wave done during the school closures, so that when schools reopened the cases didn't start exponentially growing.
Had we not had the exit wave, we would have had exponential growth when schools opened in September.
We're talking about exiting *the virus*, not restrictions. You being able to tit about as you wish isn't impacting the NHS which is what we are talking about.
As a wave? Compare and contrast the shape of an actual wave and the infection numbers. Neither a wave, nor an exit. But as long as *other people* die thanks to your quest for liberty, you are happy.
Nice.
That you think it's still possible to "exit the virus" shows just how little you know.
I was due to start a High Court case today, the Jury having been empanelled yesterday. The trial did not proceed because an essential Crown Witness had a positive lateral flow test after being in contact with 3 other friends who had positive tests after a night out last week.
At the moment the trial is adjourned to tomorrow to allow a PCR test to be done but I will frankly be amazed if even remote juries are allowed to continue at present. We are asking 15 jurors plus sundry staff to stay in the same room as each other for maybe 7 hours a day. We know for a fact that Omicron is at least 3x more infective than Delta. We do not know if social distancing, which seemed to work for Delta, will work. The reasonable assumption is that it won't. And we have the PM telling us that a "tidal wave" of cases is coming in the next few weeks.
I think that is a completely unreasonable thing to ask of a juror. I think we should abandon trials this month and at least the first half of next. I think we need to think seriously about whether schools should have an extended break too. This "tidal wave" threatens our health service. We need to be realistic about what is needed to reduce the height of the wave.
As for those voting against the restrictions in the Commons today, words simply fail me. They are not accepting the seriousness of the situation. Having said words fail me, my opening bid would be irresponsible.
You’ve just made the case for a full lockdown. The nonsense being proposed by the government is both pointless and authoritarian.
We might have got there at some point with delta, either an exit wave or a transition to endemicity*; but the fact is we never actually did, and likely won't with Omicron. Omicron probably forces delta's exit wave as delta did to alpha.
* I think it would mean near enough identical case rates in the vaxxed and unvaxxed...
I was due to start a High Court case today, the Jury having been empanelled yesterday. The trial did not proceed because an essential Crown Witness had a positive lateral flow test after being in contact with 3 other friends who had positive tests after a night out last week.
At the moment the trial is adjourned to tomorrow to allow a PCR test to be done but I will frankly be amazed if even remote juries are allowed to continue at present. We are asking 15 jurors plus sundry staff to stay in the same room as each other for maybe 7 hours a day. We know for a fact that Omicron is at least 3x more infective than Delta. We do not know if social distancing, which seemed to work for Delta, will work. The reasonable assumption is that it won't. And we have the PM telling us that a "tidal wave" of cases is coming in the next few weeks.
I think that is a completely unreasonable thing to ask of a juror. I think we should abandon trials this month and at least the first half of next. I think we need to think seriously about whether schools should have an extended break too. This "tidal wave" threatens our health service. We need to be realistic about what is needed to reduce the height of the wave.
As for those voting against the restrictions in the Commons today, words simply fail me. They are not accepting the seriousness of the situation. Having said words fail me, my opening bid would be irresponsible.
Some posters think that fact-based posts like this are hysterical. They are not. We won't need lockdown, we're going to have shutdown as has just happened with your trial.
I think that this is right. Almost every business I am aware of which did not sneak its Christmas party into the first week in December has cancelled. Social events are being cancelled left right and centre. The hospitality sector must be in complete crisis with all hopes of recovering from a dreadful year dashed and no support being offered at this point. It's desperately sad for them but my Christmas and New Year will not go beyond close family and will not involve much going out. Despite this, I expect to catch Covid within the next 10 days. It seems simply inevitable at the current rate of infection.
Shocked I tell you, absolutely shocked, on her take...LOCKDOWN NOW....
Prof Reicher says people should be clearly told "don't socialise" or govt could legislate to ensure they do. Reicher says govt should use any time during restrictions to make environments safer, i.e. ventilation etc. If it doesn't it will have "squandered" that time
iSAGE are back with a bang. We need 12 years more Lockdown until every home has been fitted with high grade ventilation systems...
Nobody is arguing for lockdown forever, even people who seem to be a bit shrieky.
Reality is that we have a valid point here - months of 40k new cases a day is not a positive...
You've been wrong for months. It is a fantastic positive.
You still seem to fail to understand that it was an exit wave too. It was both an exit (from restrictions) and a wave (since the 40k was with schools closed, then schools open, without an exponential increase when schools reopened).
Yes, this is a new definition of the words "exit" and "wave".
As you wish.
We exited restrictions, under what twisted meaning of the word "exit" is exiting restrictions not an exit?
And as for wave, yes it was a wave. We managed to get the exit wave done during the school closures, so that when schools reopened the cases didn't start exponentially growing.
Had we not had the exit wave, we would have had exponential growth when schools opened in September.
We're talking about exiting *the virus*, not restrictions. You being able to tit about as you wish isn't impacting the NHS which is what we are talking about.
As a wave? Compare and contrast the shape of an actual wave and the infection numbers. Neither a wave, nor an exit. But as long as *other people* die thanks to your quest for liberty, you are happy.
Nice.
No we're not talking about exiting the virus! Don't be stupid, we're never going to exit the virus, what a bloody idiotic idea to suggest. Are we going to exit the flu, the common cold, HIV? The virus is endemic, you don't exit endemic!
We were under restrictions. We had to exit restrictions, not the virus!
Yes look at the shape of the actual wave. We saw a wave, or more two waves. Look at @Malmesbury age profile data. The first phase of the exit wave was more generalised in ages as the exit wave happened, then that peaked and came down then the second phase of the exit wave was in children primarily as schools reopened.
But yes, keep banging on about how people will die from an endemic disease. You can't guilt trip me over that. Maybe if you hide behind the sofa we can exit disease existing? 🙄🤦♂️
Shocked I tell you, absolutely shocked, on her take...LOCKDOWN NOW....
Prof Reicher says people should be clearly told "don't socialise" or govt could legislate to ensure they do. Reicher says govt should use any time during restrictions to make environments safer, i.e. ventilation etc. If it doesn't it will have "squandered" that time
iSAGE are back with a bang. We need 12 years more Lockdown until every home has been fitted with high grade ventilation systems...
Nobody is arguing for lockdown forever, even people who seem to be a bit shrieky.
Reality is that we have a valid point here - months of 40k new cases a day is not a positive...
You've been wrong for months. It is a fantastic positive.
You still seem to fail to understand that it was an exit wave too. It was both an exit (from restrictions) and a wave (since the 40k was with schools closed, then schools open, without an exponential increase when schools reopened).
Yes, this is a new definition of the words "exit" and "wave".
As you wish.
We exited restrictions, under what twisted meaning of the word "exit" is exiting restrictions not an exit?
And as for wave, yes it was a wave. We managed to get the exit wave done during the school closures, so that when schools reopened the cases didn't start exponentially growing.
Had we not had the exit wave, we would have had exponential growth when schools opened in September.
We're talking about exiting *the virus*, not restrictions. You being able to tit about as you wish isn't impacting the NHS which is what we are talking about.
As a wave? Compare and contrast the shape of an actual wave and the infection numbers. Neither a wave, nor an exit. But as long as *other people* die thanks to your quest for liberty, you are happy.
Nice.
That you think it's still possible to "exit the virus" shows just how little you know.
And of course the data has shown, until Omicron, fully vaccinated people, even oldies, the risk factor even if they do catch COVID has been dramatically reduced. Outside really vulnerable people, you really need to be far more worried about everyday life things and every other possible disease / illness that could occur.
Shocked I tell you, absolutely shocked, on her take...LOCKDOWN NOW....
Prof Reicher says people should be clearly told "don't socialise" or govt could legislate to ensure they do. Reicher says govt should use any time during restrictions to make environments safer, i.e. ventilation etc. If it doesn't it will have "squandered" that time
iSAGE are back with a bang. We need 12 years more Lockdown until every home has been fitted with high grade ventilation systems...
Nobody is arguing for lockdown forever, even people who seem to be a bit shrieky.
Reality is that we have a valid point here - months of 40k new cases a day is not a positive...
You've been wrong for months. It is a fantastic positive.
You still seem to fail to understand that it was an exit wave too. It was both an exit (from restrictions) and a wave (since the 40k was with schools closed, then schools open, without an exponential increase when schools reopened).
Yes, this is a new definition of the words "exit" and "wave".
As you wish.
We exited restrictions, under what twisted meaning of the word "exit" is exiting restrictions not an exit?
And as for wave, yes it was a wave. We managed to get the exit wave done during the school closures, so that when schools reopened the cases didn't start exponentially growing.
Had we not had the exit wave, we would have had exponential growth when schools opened in September.
We're talking about exiting *the virus*, not restrictions. You being able to tit about as you wish isn't impacting the NHS which is what we are talking about.
As a wave? Compare and contrast the shape of an actual wave and the infection numbers. Neither a wave, nor an exit. But as long as *other people* die thanks to your quest for liberty, you are happy.
Nice.
No we're not talking about exiting the virus! Don't be stupid, we're never going to exit the virus, what a bloody idiotic to suggest. Are we going to exit flu, the common cold, HIV? The virus is endemic, you can't exit endemic!
We were under restrictions. We had to exit restrictions, not the virus!
Yes look at the shape of the actual wave. We saw a wave, or more two waves. Look at @Malmesbury age profile data. The first phase of the exit wave was more generalised in ages as the exit wave happened, then that peaked and came down then the second phase of the exit wave was in children primarily as schools reopened.
But yes, keep banging on about how people will die from an endemic disease. You can't guilt trip me over that. Maybe if you hide behind the sofa we can exit disease existing? 🙄🤦♂️
Point of order, but you can exist an endemic disease. Just not on reasonable timescales.
Shocked I tell you, absolutely shocked, on her take...LOCKDOWN NOW....
Prof Reicher says people should be clearly told "don't socialise" or govt could legislate to ensure they do. Reicher says govt should use any time during restrictions to make environments safer, i.e. ventilation etc. If it doesn't it will have "squandered" that time
iSAGE are back with a bang. We need 12 years more Lockdown until every home has been fitted with high grade ventilation systems...
Nobody is arguing for lockdown forever, even people who seem to be a bit shrieky.
Reality is that we have a valid point here - months of 40k new cases a day is not a positive...
You've been wrong for months. It is a fantastic positive.
You still seem to fail to understand that it was an exit wave too. It was both an exit (from restrictions) and a wave (since the 40k was with schools closed, then schools open, without an exponential increase when schools reopened).
Phil, whatever else we can describe the last few months it certainly hasn't been an "exit wave".
30k+ a day for 4 months is remarkable consistent but it's definitely not an exit wave more a new background figure.
Shocked I tell you, absolutely shocked, on her take...LOCKDOWN NOW....
Prof Reicher says people should be clearly told "don't socialise" or govt could legislate to ensure they do. Reicher says govt should use any time during restrictions to make environments safer, i.e. ventilation etc. If it doesn't it will have "squandered" that time
iSAGE are back with a bang. We need 12 years more Lockdown until every home has been fitted with high grade ventilation systems...
Nobody is arguing for lockdown forever, even people who seem to be a bit shrieky.
Reality is that we have a valid point here - months of 40k new cases a day is not a positive...
You've been wrong for months. It is a fantastic positive.
You still seem to fail to understand that it was an exit wave too. It was both an exit (from restrictions) and a wave (since the 40k was with schools closed, then schools open, without an exponential increase when schools reopened).
Yes, this is a new definition of the words "exit" and "wave".
As you wish.
We exited restrictions, under what twisted meaning of the word "exit" is exiting restrictions not an exit?
And as for wave, yes it was a wave. We managed to get the exit wave done during the school closures, so that when schools reopened the cases didn't start exponentially growing.
Had we not had the exit wave, we would have had exponential growth when schools opened in September.
We're talking about exiting *the virus*, not restrictions. You being able to tit about as you wish isn't impacting the NHS which is what we are talking about.
As a wave? Compare and contrast the shape of an actual wave and the infection numbers. Neither a wave, nor an exit. But as long as *other people* die thanks to your quest for liberty, you are happy.
Nice.
No we're not talking about exiting the virus! Don't be stupid, we're never going to exit the virus, what a bloody idiotic to suggest. Are we going to exit flu, the common cold, HIV? The virus is endemic, you can't exit endemic!
We were under restrictions. We had to exit restrictions, not the virus!
Yes look at the shape of the actual wave. We saw a wave, or more two waves. Look at @Malmesbury age profile data. The first phase of the exit wave was more generalised in ages as the exit wave happened, then that peaked and came down then the second phase of the exit wave was in children primarily as schools reopened.
But yes, keep banging on about how people will die from an endemic disease. You can't guilt trip me over that. Maybe if you hide behind the sofa we can exit disease existing? 🙄🤦♂️
Point of order, but you can exist an endemic disease. Just not on reasonable timescales.
Shocked I tell you, absolutely shocked, on her take...LOCKDOWN NOW....
Prof Reicher says people should be clearly told "don't socialise" or govt could legislate to ensure they do. Reicher says govt should use any time during restrictions to make environments safer, i.e. ventilation etc. If it doesn't it will have "squandered" that time
iSAGE are back with a bang. We need 12 years more Lockdown until every home has been fitted with high grade ventilation systems...
Nobody is arguing for lockdown forever, even people who seem to be a bit shrieky.
Reality is that we have a valid point here - months of 40k new cases a day is not a positive...
You've been wrong for months. It is a fantastic positive.
You still seem to fail to understand that it was an exit wave too. It was both an exit (from restrictions) and a wave (since the 40k was with schools closed, then schools open, without an exponential increase when schools reopened).
Yes, this is a new definition of the words "exit" and "wave".
As you wish.
We exited restrictions, under what twisted meaning of the word "exit" is exiting restrictions not an exit?
And as for wave, yes it was a wave. We managed to get the exit wave done during the school closures, so that when schools reopened the cases didn't start exponentially growing.
Had we not had the exit wave, we would have had exponential growth when schools opened in September.
We're talking about exiting *the virus*, not restrictions. You being able to tit about as you wish isn't impacting the NHS which is what we are talking about.
As a wave? Compare and contrast the shape of an actual wave and the infection numbers. Neither a wave, nor an exit. But as long as *other people* die thanks to your quest for liberty, you are happy.
Nice.
No we're not talking about exiting the virus! Don't be stupid, we're never going to exit the virus, what a bloody idiotic to suggest. Are we going to exit flu, the common cold, HIV? The virus is endemic, you can't exit endemic!
We were under restrictions. We had to exit restrictions, not the virus!
Yes look at the shape of the actual wave. We saw a wave, or more two waves. Look at @Malmesbury age profile data. The first phase of the exit wave was more generalised in ages as the exit wave happened, then that peaked and came down then the second phase of the exit wave was in children primarily as schools reopened.
But yes, keep banging on about how people will die from an endemic disease. You can't guilt trip me over that. Maybe if you hide behind the sofa we can exit disease existing? 🙄🤦♂️
Point of order, but you can exist an endemic disease. Just not on reasonable timescales.
Its worth remembering 70% of cases have been unvaccinated people and the hospitalisations / deaths are proportionally massively tilted towards that group.
What do you mean by "cases"?
Cases as tracked by Tim Spector....which is modelled based upon official data and their own testing / numbers.
Its only a rough estimate, but unvaccinated people have consistently made up a big chunk, far in excess of the proportion of the population. Same with hospitalisations.
So by "cases" you mean people who have actually tested positive for Covid regardless of whether they are ill or not?
The World Health Organization (WHO) says it is investigating the deaths of nearly 100 people who succumbed to a yet to be identified disease in Fangak, Jonglei State, in South Sudan.
Last week, the ministry of health reported that an unknown disease had killed dozens of people in the area which is one of the worst hit by recent flooding.
I was due to start a High Court case today, the Jury having been empanelled yesterday. The trial did not proceed because an essential Crown Witness had a positive lateral flow test after being in contact with 3 other friends who had positive tests after a night out last week.
At the moment the trial is adjourned to tomorrow to allow a PCR test to be done but I will frankly be amazed if even remote juries are allowed to continue at present. We are asking 15 jurors plus sundry staff to stay in the same room as each other for maybe 7 hours a day. We know for a fact that Omicron is at least 3x more infective than Delta. We do not know if social distancing, which seemed to work for Delta, will work. The reasonable assumption is that it won't. And we have the PM telling us that a "tidal wave" of cases is coming in the next few weeks.
I think that is a completely unreasonable thing to ask of a juror. I think we should abandon trials this month and at least the first half of next. I think we need to think seriously about whether schools should have an extended break too. This "tidal wave" threatens our health service. We need to be realistic about what is needed to reduce the height of the wave.
As for those voting against the restrictions in the Commons today, words simply fail me. They are not accepting the seriousness of the situation. Having said words fail me, my opening bid would be irresponsible.
You’ve just made the case for a full lockdown. The nonsense being proposed by the government is both pointless and authoritarian.
As I have said in other posts the criticism of the government should be focused on the point that their restrictions don't go nearly far enough. as an example we need to go back to empty football stadiums immediately, not vaxports (assuming we can find 22 uninfected players to play each other). But rejecting the inadequate steps the government is taking because they do not go far enough is just insane.
The vast majority of the UK population are double vaccinated, most South Africans are not vaccinated.
The UK also has a higher percentage of adults already having had their boosters then any other major nation
I think it's referring to the sustained pressure on the UK NHS for months.
Sustained pressure is a good thing. It flattens the sombrero.
Every day that passes with sustained pressure in the past means a better off future.
People will be flattening your sombrero, Philip, if you keep puffing so hard and relentlessly on the drivel pipe.
You unhappy at uncomfortable truths being pointed out?
I'm a big fan of recognizing uncomfortable truths. The one which springs to mind here is we have to live with Covid and a part of living with Covid is managing the waves of serious illness it periodically causes. This means preventing the NHS collapsing is the top priority. That was the case for previous waves and it remains the case for this one. Ditto the next and the one after that and the one after that. It's here for good. We have to live with it. No choice is there?
The NHS priority is a political consensus and it reflects the consensus of society. We can debate the marginal costs and benefits of various options, the plan Bs and Cs, we can emphasize the importance of personal freedoms, the right balance between law and guidance, all of that, but there's no point underplaying what the virus can do or saying that protecting the NHS shouldn't be the priority. That is howling at the moon. So is all the crazy stuff about "scientists wanting to lock us down forever" and frigging their models to give a deliberately false Armageddon scenario.
Its worth remembering 70% of cases have been unvaccinated people and the hospitalisations / deaths are proportionally massively tilted towards that group.
What do you mean by "cases"?
Cases as tracked by Tim Spector....which is modelled based upon official data and their own testing / numbers.
Its only a rough estimate, but unvaccinated people have consistently made up a big chunk, far in excess of the proportion of the population. Same with hospitalisations.
So by "cases" you mean people who have actually tested positive for Covid regardless of whether they are ill or not?
Well.....hmm...its not quite clear cut as that. It a modelled number e.g. ZOE send out tests on a regular basis to people just like the ONS. So they will be picking up some people who are asymptotic.
Hence why ZOE app will regularly have much higher case numbers than the official ones.
But as a finger in the air, what we can take from it, is a substantial proportion of the case numbers we have been seeing are from unvaccinated people. And it translates to a substantial (and disproportion) number of them in hospital.
The stats for risk when fully vaxxed are such that outside the very vulnerable, you really needed to be worrying about that hot iron or the bus coming down the road at 40 mph...
One other thing. If Whitty is briefing the cabinet the NHS is going to collapse in four weeks, why isn’t he briefing the country. Why aren’t we having a No.10 briefing. This is the most dire warning we’ve had since the start of the whole crisis isn’t it? https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1470746320180817921
I said the other day, I reckon there has been a massive bust up. Witty wanted a lockdown, the government said no we are going with Plan B. Witty wanted a lockdown, the government said we are going with rapid booster programme.
When they announced Plan B, he really emphasised that he wasn't him, it was the cabinet that signed it off, and now here is some really scary data from South Africa....
I tend to agree with that, which would also help to explain the absurd target the govt initially set for the booster boost. To get everyone who was double-jabbed by end-Oct boosted by end-Dec would mean an average of 1m doses/day being given for the rest of the month.
More realistically, given ramp-up time and reduced demands on Sundays and (presumably) Christmas, it'd mean at least 1.5m doses/day on some days - which is a tripling of current capacity. Where's that going to come from? it's surely unachievable in such a short timescale.
And yet it's been signed off. Why? Because if it hadn't been, what then is the protection against the omicron wave?
Shocked I tell you, absolutely shocked, on her take...LOCKDOWN NOW....
Prof Reicher says people should be clearly told "don't socialise" or govt could legislate to ensure they do. Reicher says govt should use any time during restrictions to make environments safer, i.e. ventilation etc. If it doesn't it will have "squandered" that time
iSAGE are back with a bang. We need 12 years more Lockdown until every home has been fitted with high grade ventilation systems...
Nobody is arguing for lockdown forever, even people who seem to be a bit shrieky.
Reality is that we have a valid point here - months of 40k new cases a day is not a positive...
You've been wrong for months. It is a fantastic positive.
You still seem to fail to understand that it was an exit wave too. It was both an exit (from restrictions) and a wave (since the 40k was with schools closed, then schools open, without an exponential increase when schools reopened).
Yes, this is a new definition of the words "exit" and "wave".
As you wish.
We exited restrictions, under what twisted meaning of the word "exit" is exiting restrictions not an exit?
And as for wave, yes it was a wave. We managed to get the exit wave done during the school closures, so that when schools reopened the cases didn't start exponentially growing.
Had we not had the exit wave, we would have had exponential growth when schools opened in September.
We're talking about exiting *the virus*, not restrictions. You being able to tit about as you wish isn't impacting the NHS which is what we are talking about.
As a wave? Compare and contrast the shape of an actual wave and the infection numbers. Neither a wave, nor an exit. But as long as *other people* die thanks to your quest for liberty, you are happy.
Nice.
No we're not talking about exiting the virus! Don't be stupid, we're never going to exit the virus, what a bloody idiotic idea to suggest. Are we going to exit the flu, the common cold, HIV? The virus is endemic, you don't exit endemic!
We were under restrictions. We had to exit restrictions, not the virus!
Yes look at the shape of the actual wave. We saw a wave, or more two waves. Look at @Malmesbury age profile data. The first phase of the exit wave was more generalised in ages as the exit wave happened, then that peaked and came down then the second phase of the exit wave was in children primarily as schools reopened.
But yes, keep banging on about how people will die from an endemic disease. You can't guilt trip me over that. Maybe if you hide behind the sofa we can exit disease existing? 🙄🤦♂️
I'm going to go back in time, to July 2021, and ask Chris Whitty
I was due to start a High Court case today, the Jury having been empanelled yesterday. The trial did not proceed because an essential Crown Witness had a positive lateral flow test after being in contact with 3 other friends who had positive tests after a night out last week.
At the moment the trial is adjourned to tomorrow to allow a PCR test to be done but I will frankly be amazed if even remote juries are allowed to continue at present. We are asking 15 jurors plus sundry staff to stay in the same room as each other for maybe 7 hours a day. We know for a fact that Omicron is at least 3x more infective than Delta. We do not know if social distancing, which seemed to work for Delta, will work. The reasonable assumption is that it won't. And we have the PM telling us that a "tidal wave" of cases is coming in the next few weeks.
I think that is a completely unreasonable thing to ask of a juror. I think we should abandon trials this month and at least the first half of next. I think we need to think seriously about whether schools should have an extended break too. This "tidal wave" threatens our health service. We need to be realistic about what is needed to reduce the height of the wave.
As for those voting against the restrictions in the Commons today, words simply fail me. They are not accepting the seriousness of the situation. Having said words fail me, my opening bid would be irresponsible.
You’ve just made the case for a full lockdown. The nonsense being proposed by the government is both pointless and authoritarian.
As I have said in other posts the criticism of the government should be focused on the point that their restrictions don't go nearly far enough. as an example we need to go back to empty football stadiums immediately, not vaxports (assuming we can find 22 uninfected players to play each other). But rejecting the inadequate steps the government is taking because they do not go far enough is just insane.
Nope, we need to hold the current course and simply deal with it. The only way to stop Omicron is a Chinese style economic shutdown. We have neither the money or means to do that in this country. Ultimately, people are going to die of Omicron and the best thing we can all do is get our third doses and keep our fingers crossed. COVID is an endemic disease, it's simply never going to go away. Anyone who is deluding themselves into believing it can be defeated is going to be extremely disappointed.
One other thing. If Whitty is briefing the cabinet the NHS is going to collapse in four weeks, why isn’t he briefing the country. Why aren’t we having a No.10 briefing. This is the most dire warning we’ve had since the start of the whole crisis isn’t it? https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1470746320180817921
There are still a lot of uncertainties, the most important of which is the seriousness of Omicron infection. But the scale of infection means even the optimistic scenarios are bad. The pessimistic ones are barely worth thinking about, unless you are unlucky enough to have Whitty's job.
The tldr argument about the UK position on Omicron appears to be:
*will the pre-existing solid number of boosters distributed be enough? *if it's less than enough, can we top it up quickly enough? *if not, will large volumes of severe/mild sickness/self-isolation harm the NHS, and also other key industries?
The vast majority of the UK population are double vaccinated, most South Africans are not vaccinated.
The UK also has a higher percentage of adults already having had their boosters then any other major nation
I think it's referring to the sustained pressure on the UK NHS for months.
Sustained pressure is a good thing. It flattens the sombrero.
Every day that passes with sustained pressure in the past means a better off future.
People will be flattening your sombrero, Philip, if you keep puffing so hard and relentlessly on the drivel pipe.
You unhappy at uncomfortable truths being pointed out?
I'm a big fan of recognizing uncomfortable truths. The one which springs to mind here is we have to live with Covid and a part of living with Covid is managing the waves of serious illness it periodically causes. This means preventing the NHS collapsing is the top priority. That was the case for previous waves and it remains the case for this one. Ditto the next and the one after that and the one after that. It's here for good. We have to live with it. No choice is there?
The NHS priority is a political consensus and it reflects the consensus of society. We can debate the marginal costs and benefits of various options, the plan Bs and Cs, we can emphasize the importance of personal freedoms, the right balance between law and guidance, all of that, but there's no point underplaying what the virus can do or saying that protecting the NHS shouldn't be the priority. That is howling at the moon. So is all the crazy stuff about "scientists wanting to lock us down forever" and frigging their models to give a deliberately false Armageddon scenario.
The fact that even such a relatively small tightening in restrictions is quite rightly getting potentially 80 plus rebels shows that people are beginning to say enough is enough.
The time has come for those of us who believe in liberties to stand up for what we believe in. We can not remain indefinitely an NHS with a country attached.
One other thing. If Whitty is briefing the cabinet the NHS is going to collapse in four weeks, why isn’t he briefing the country. Why aren’t we having a No.10 briefing. This is the most dire warning we’ve had since the start of the whole crisis isn’t it? https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1470746320180817921
I said the other day, I reckon there has been a massive bust up. Witty wanted a lockdown, the government said no we are going with Plan B. Witty wanted a lockdown, the government said we are going with rapid booster programme.
When they announced Plan B, he really emphasised that he wasn't him, it was the cabinet that signed it off, and now here is some really scary data from South Africa....
I tend to agree with that, which would also help to explain the absurd target the govt initially set for the booster boost. To get everyone who was double-jabbed by end-Oct boosted by end-Dec would mean an average of 1m doses/day being given for the rest of the month.
More realistically, given ramp-up time and reduced demands on Sundays and (presumably) Christmas, it'd mean at least 1.5m doses/day on some days - which is a tripling of current capacity. Where's that going to come from? it's surely unachievable in such a short timescale.
And yet it's been signed off. Why? Because if it hadn't been, what then is the protection against the omicron wave?
If the government has called this wrong (and overridden SAGE advice, not just by a bit of tinkering around the edges) and the system goes into meltdown, the Christmas party business will look like a minor blip.
The problem is, if they have called it right on balance, they won't get any credit, as there will still be plenty in hospital regardless.
I have to say in two years "exit the virus" is surely up there among the most stupid things said about it. That there's anyone who believes that is worrying and the government Comms needs to be updated to warn everyone that we're all going to get it and the best way to decrease likelihood of symptoms is to get vaccinated. There is no other game in town.
I have to say in two years "exit the virus" is surely up there among the most stupid things said about it. That there's anyone who believes that is worrying and the government Comms needs to be updated to warn everyone that we're all going to get it and the best way to decrease likelihood of symptoms is to get vaccinated. There is no other game in town.
And here I was having you down as a zero covid man ;-)
I have to say in two years "exit the virus" is surely up there among the most stupid things said about it. That there's anyone who believes that is worrying and the government Comms needs to be updated to warn everyone that we're all going to get it and the best way to decrease likelihood of symptoms is to get vaccinated. There is no other game in town.
Precisely. We can enter and exit restrictions, and the summer was an exit from restrictions.
I have to say in two years "exit the virus" is surely up there among the most stupid things said about it. That there's anyone who believes that is worrying and the government Comms needs to be updated to warn everyone that we're all going to get it and the best way to decrease likelihood of symptoms is to get vaccinated. There is no other game in town.
Almost nobody out there understands this Max. They get distressed when you say it to them as though you’re blaspheming.
I was due to start a High Court case today, the Jury having been empanelled yesterday. The trial did not proceed because an essential Crown Witness had a positive lateral flow test after being in contact with 3 other friends who had positive tests after a night out last week.
At the moment the trial is adjourned to tomorrow to allow a PCR test to be done but I will frankly be amazed if even remote juries are allowed to continue at present. We are asking 15 jurors plus sundry staff to stay in the same room as each other for maybe 7 hours a day. We know for a fact that Omicron is at least 3x more infective than Delta. We do not know if social distancing, which seemed to work for Delta, will work. The reasonable assumption is that it won't. And we have the PM telling us that a "tidal wave" of cases is coming in the next few weeks.
I think that is a completely unreasonable thing to ask of a juror. I think we should abandon trials this month and at least the first half of next. I think we need to think seriously about whether schools should have an extended break too. This "tidal wave" threatens our health service. We need to be realistic about what is needed to reduce the height of the wave.
As for those voting against the restrictions in the Commons today, words simply fail me. They are not accepting the seriousness of the situation. Having said words fail me, my opening bid would be irresponsible.
You’ve just made the case for a full lockdown. The nonsense being proposed by the government is both pointless and authoritarian.
As I have said in other posts the criticism of the government should be focused on the point that their restrictions don't go nearly far enough. as an example we need to go back to empty football stadiums immediately, not vaxports (assuming we can find 22 uninfected players to play each other). But rejecting the inadequate steps the government is taking because they do not go far enough is just insane.
Nope, we need to hold the current course and simply deal with it. The only way to stop Omicron is a Chinese style economic shutdown. We have neither the money or means to do that in this country. Ultimately, people are going to die of Omicron and the best thing we can all do is get our third doses and keep our fingers crossed. COVID is an endemic disease, it's simply never going to go away. Anyone who is deluding themselves into believing it can be defeated is going to be extremely disappointed.
I wish that was true Max but it isn't. The position we are in is unhappily similar to where we were last Christmas. Then, it was the vaccines that were riding to the rescue and we did not do enough to reduce the spread before the cavalry arrived resulting in horrendous death figures in January and February. Now, we have anti-virials which look like they are going to massively reduce the risk of death and serious disease within months.
But we also face a serious wave before they are available which is likely to kill many tens of thousands of people. We need to act now to mitigate that and hope that the early promise of new medicines will put us in a better place going forward.
@ProfTimBale 1m Maybe, but still think the term should be taken outside and shot, then cut up and boiled down for glue. Suspect @philipjcowley feels similarly!
I was due to start a High Court case today, the Jury having been empanelled yesterday. The trial did not proceed because an essential Crown Witness had a positive lateral flow test after being in contact with 3 other friends who had positive tests after a night out last week.
At the moment the trial is adjourned to tomorrow to allow a PCR test to be done but I will frankly be amazed if even remote juries are allowed to continue at present. We are asking 15 jurors plus sundry staff to stay in the same room as each other for maybe 7 hours a day. We know for a fact that Omicron is at least 3x more infective than Delta. We do not know if social distancing, which seemed to work for Delta, will work. The reasonable assumption is that it won't. And we have the PM telling us that a "tidal wave" of cases is coming in the next few weeks.
I think that is a completely unreasonable thing to ask of a juror. I think we should abandon trials this month and at least the first half of next. I think we need to think seriously about whether schools should have an extended break too. This "tidal wave" threatens our health service. We need to be realistic about what is needed to reduce the height of the wave.
As for those voting against the restrictions in the Commons today, words simply fail me. They are not accepting the seriousness of the situation. Having said words fail me, my opening bid would be irresponsible.
Some posters think that fact-based posts like this are hysterical. They are not. We won't need lockdown, we're going to have shutdown as has just happened with your trial.
I think that this is right. Almost every business I am aware of which did not sneak its Christmas party into the first week in December has cancelled. Social events are being cancelled left right and centre. The hospitality sector must be in complete crisis with all hopes of recovering from a dreadful year dashed and no support being offered at this point. It's desperately sad for them but my Christmas and New Year will not go beyond close family and will not involve much going out. Despite this, I expect to catch Covid within the next 10 days. It seems simply inevitable at the current rate of infection.
It's not good enough to feel desperately sad for hospitality.
If a full lockdown is needed then the same financial support as was given in spring 2020 needs to be given now. No ifs, no buts.
We've heard nothing on this from either the government, the rebels or Labour.
Shocked I tell you, absolutely shocked, on her take...LOCKDOWN NOW....
Prof Reicher says people should be clearly told "don't socialise" or govt could legislate to ensure they do. Reicher says govt should use any time during restrictions to make environments safer, i.e. ventilation etc. If it doesn't it will have "squandered" that time
iSAGE are back with a bang. We need 12 years more Lockdown until every home has been fitted with high grade ventilation systems...
Nobody is arguing for lockdown forever, even people who seem to be a bit shrieky.
Reality is that we have a valid point here - months of 40k new cases a day is not a positive...
You've been wrong for months. It is a fantastic positive.
You still seem to fail to understand that it was an exit wave too. It was both an exit (from restrictions) and a wave (since the 40k was with schools closed, then schools open, without an exponential increase when schools reopened).
Yes, this is a new definition of the words "exit" and "wave".
As you wish.
We exited restrictions, under what twisted meaning of the word "exit" is exiting restrictions not an exit?
And as for wave, yes it was a wave. We managed to get the exit wave done during the school closures, so that when schools reopened the cases didn't start exponentially growing.
Had we not had the exit wave, we would have had exponential growth when schools opened in September.
We're talking about exiting *the virus*, not restrictions. You being able to tit about as you wish isn't impacting the NHS which is what we are talking about.
As a wave? Compare and contrast the shape of an actual wave and the infection numbers. Neither a wave, nor an exit. But as long as *other people* die thanks to your quest for liberty, you are happy.
Nice.
“Exit the virus”. It must be a nice view from on top of your unicorn.
I have not used the phrase "exit wave". It was put forward by MaxPB alleged to be from the LSTHM (Its not) and is being copied by Philip.
Its worth remembering 70% of cases have been unvaccinated people and the hospitalisations / deaths are proportionally massively tilted towards that group.
What do you mean by "cases"?
Cases as tracked by Tim Spector....which is modelled based upon official data and their own testing / numbers.
Its only a rough estimate, but unvaccinated people have consistently made up a big chunk, far in excess of the proportion of the population. Same with hospitalisations.
So by "cases" you mean people who have actually tested positive for Covid regardless of whether they are ill or not?
Well.....hmm...its not quite clear cut as that. It a modelled number e.g. ZOE send out tests on a regular basis to people just like the ONS. So they will be picking up some people who are asymptotic.
Hence why ZOE app will regularly have much higher case numbers than the official ones.
But as a finger in the air, what we can take from it, is a substantial proportion of the case numbers we have been seeing are from unvaccinated people. And it translates to a substantial (and disproportion) number of them in hospital.
The stats for risk when fully vaxxed are such that outside the very vulnerable, you really needed to be worrying about that hot iron or the bus coming down the road at 40 mph...
So - I may be being a dunderhead - you are defining cases as "those who have tested positive for Covid plus those who we think would test positive were they to be tested".
If I've got that right then saying that 70% of such results (real + hypothetical) are unvaccinated people then I find that very surprising. It means (I think) that if you are vaccinated even where you come in contact with Covid pathogen as often as unvaccinated people you are far less likely to test positive for it.
I was due to start a High Court case today, the Jury having been empanelled yesterday. The trial did not proceed because an essential Crown Witness had a positive lateral flow test after being in contact with 3 other friends who had positive tests after a night out last week.
At the moment the trial is adjourned to tomorrow to allow a PCR test to be done but I will frankly be amazed if even remote juries are allowed to continue at present. We are asking 15 jurors plus sundry staff to stay in the same room as each other for maybe 7 hours a day. We know for a fact that Omicron is at least 3x more infective than Delta. We do not know if social distancing, which seemed to work for Delta, will work. The reasonable assumption is that it won't. And we have the PM telling us that a "tidal wave" of cases is coming in the next few weeks.
I think that is a completely unreasonable thing to ask of a juror. I think we should abandon trials this month and at least the first half of next. I think we need to think seriously about whether schools should have an extended break too. This "tidal wave" threatens our health service. We need to be realistic about what is needed to reduce the height of the wave.
As for those voting against the restrictions in the Commons today, words simply fail me. They are not accepting the seriousness of the situation. Having said words fail me, my opening bid would be irresponsible.
Some posters think that fact-based posts like this are hysterical. They are not. We won't need lockdown, we're going to have shutdown as has just happened with your trial.
I think that this is right. Almost every business I am aware of which did not sneak its Christmas party into the first week in December has cancelled. Social events are being cancelled left right and centre. The hospitality sector must be in complete crisis with all hopes of recovering from a dreadful year dashed and no support being offered at this point. It's desperately sad for them but my Christmas and New Year will not go beyond close family and will not involve much going out. Despite this, I expect to catch Covid within the next 10 days. It seems simply inevitable at the current rate of infection.
It's not good enough to feel desperately sad for hospitality.
If a full lockdown is needed then the same financial support as was given in spring 2020 needs to be given now. No ifs, no buts.
We've heard nothing on this from either the government, the rebels or Labour.
So, frankly, they can all go fuck themselves.
Well said Cyclefree.
I said above its disgusting that we've got no Opposition from the Opposition.
I can understand what the Government is thinking, but with 80+ rebels what on earth are Labour thinking in saying they'll vote for restrictions without even asking for financial support in return? It doesn't cost them anything to make that quid pro quo demand.
Only a straw in the wind, but a couple of Tory "rebels" have told me they now plan to vote with the govt, partly because they don't want to be in the same division lobby as Marcus "Nazi Germany" Fysh. Wonder if the rebellion will hit the 80 or so predicted..lots of abstentions? https://twitter.com/GeorgeWParker/status/1470747075696594944
I heard Fysh making those comments on Monday morning. It wasn't even the only stupid thing he said. He came across as an uninformed, hysterical, idiot. God knows why anyone would vote for such a person.
Aside from that I got my booster today, Moderna to follow my two doses of AstraZenaca, and I was pleasantly surprised at how well organised and speedy the pharmacy was. My guestimate is that they could easily do 30 people an hour if they kept up the rate I saw.
They are an illiberal fart against the wind against Omicron and there's no support for businesses (particularly hospitality) with this de facto lockdown.
Shocked I tell you, absolutely shocked, on her take...LOCKDOWN NOW....
Prof Reicher says people should be clearly told "don't socialise" or govt could legislate to ensure they do. Reicher says govt should use any time during restrictions to make environments safer, i.e. ventilation etc. If it doesn't it will have "squandered" that time
iSAGE are back with a bang. We need 12 years more Lockdown until every home has been fitted with high grade ventilation systems...
Nobody is arguing for lockdown forever, even people who seem to be a bit shrieky.
Reality is that we have a valid point here - months of 40k new cases a day is not a positive...
You've been wrong for months. It is a fantastic positive.
You still seem to fail to understand that it was an exit wave too. It was both an exit (from restrictions) and a wave (since the 40k was with schools closed, then schools open, without an exponential increase when schools reopened).
Yes, this is a new definition of the words "exit" and "wave".
As you wish.
We exited restrictions, under what twisted meaning of the word "exit" is exiting restrictions not an exit?
And as for wave, yes it was a wave. We managed to get the exit wave done during the school closures, so that when schools reopened the cases didn't start exponentially growing.
Had we not had the exit wave, we would have had exponential growth when schools opened in September.
We're talking about exiting *the virus*, not restrictions. You being able to tit about as you wish isn't impacting the NHS which is what we are talking about.
As a wave? Compare and contrast the shape of an actual wave and the infection numbers. Neither a wave, nor an exit. But as long as *other people* die thanks to your quest for liberty, you are happy.
Nice.
No we're not talking about exiting the virus! Don't be stupid, we're never going to exit the virus, what a bloody idiotic to suggest. Are we going to exit flu, the common cold, HIV? The virus is endemic, you can't exit endemic!
We were under restrictions. We had to exit restrictions, not the virus!
Yes look at the shape of the actual wave. We saw a wave, or more two waves. Look at @Malmesbury age profile data. The first phase of the exit wave was more generalised in ages as the exit wave happened, then that peaked and came down then the second phase of the exit wave was in children primarily as schools reopened.
But yes, keep banging on about how people will die from an endemic disease. You can't guilt trip me over that. Maybe if you hide behind the sofa we can exit disease existing? 🙄🤦♂️
Point of order, but you can exist an endemic disease. Just not on reasonable timescales.
I don't expect that we will "exit" Covid. We will get to the point where it is no longer a threat to the nation and it will recede into the background as just another nasty virus.
So no, I am not proposing that we exit. The term "exit wave" was purported that we had exited Delta over the summer. Which is demonstrably not true.
I was due to start a High Court case today, the Jury having been empanelled yesterday. The trial did not proceed because an essential Crown Witness had a positive lateral flow test after being in contact with 3 other friends who had positive tests after a night out last week.
At the moment the trial is adjourned to tomorrow to allow a PCR test to be done but I will frankly be amazed if even remote juries are allowed to continue at present. We are asking 15 jurors plus sundry staff to stay in the same room as each other for maybe 7 hours a day. We know for a fact that Omicron is at least 3x more infective than Delta. We do not know if social distancing, which seemed to work for Delta, will work. The reasonable assumption is that it won't. And we have the PM telling us that a "tidal wave" of cases is coming in the next few weeks.
I think that is a completely unreasonable thing to ask of a juror. I think we should abandon trials this month and at least the first half of next. I think we need to think seriously about whether schools should have an extended break too. This "tidal wave" threatens our health service. We need to be realistic about what is needed to reduce the height of the wave.
As for those voting against the restrictions in the Commons today, words simply fail me. They are not accepting the seriousness of the situation. Having said words fail me, my opening bid would be irresponsible.
Some posters think that fact-based posts like this are hysterical. They are not. We won't need lockdown, we're going to have shutdown as has just happened with your trial.
I think that this is right. Almost every business I am aware of which did not sneak its Christmas party into the first week in December has cancelled. Social events are being cancelled left right and centre. The hospitality sector must be in complete crisis with all hopes of recovering from a dreadful year dashed and no support being offered at this point. It's desperately sad for them but my Christmas and New Year will not go beyond close family and will not involve much going out. Despite this, I expect to catch Covid within the next 10 days. It seems simply inevitable at the current rate of infection.
It's not good enough to feel desperately sad for hospitality.
If a full lockdown is needed then the same financial support as was given in spring 2020 needs to be given now. No ifs, no buts.
We've heard nothing on this from either the government, the rebels or Labour.
So, frankly, they can all go fuck themselves.
I agree with the poster earlier who pointed out that this should have been the price of Labour support. But the rebels are living in a fantasy land. People will not be going out to spend money and enjoy themselves in sufficient numbers now whether this is permitted or not.
Shocked I tell you, absolutely shocked, on her take...LOCKDOWN NOW....
Prof Reicher says people should be clearly told "don't socialise" or govt could legislate to ensure they do. Reicher says govt should use any time during restrictions to make environments safer, i.e. ventilation etc. If it doesn't it will have "squandered" that time
iSAGE are back with a bang. We need 12 years more Lockdown until every home has been fitted with high grade ventilation systems...
Nobody is arguing for lockdown forever, even people who seem to be a bit shrieky.
Reality is that we have a valid point here - months of 40k new cases a day is not a positive...
You've been wrong for months. It is a fantastic positive.
You still seem to fail to understand that it was an exit wave too. It was both an exit (from restrictions) and a wave (since the 40k was with schools closed, then schools open, without an exponential increase when schools reopened).
Yes, this is a new definition of the words "exit" and "wave".
As you wish.
We exited restrictions, under what twisted meaning of the word "exit" is exiting restrictions not an exit?
And as for wave, yes it was a wave. We managed to get the exit wave done during the school closures, so that when schools reopened the cases didn't start exponentially growing.
Had we not had the exit wave, we would have had exponential growth when schools opened in September.
We're talking about exiting *the virus*, not restrictions. You being able to tit about as you wish isn't impacting the NHS which is what we are talking about.
As a wave? Compare and contrast the shape of an actual wave and the infection numbers. Neither a wave, nor an exit. But as long as *other people* die thanks to your quest for liberty, you are happy.
Nice.
No we're not talking about exiting the virus! Don't be stupid, we're never going to exit the virus, what a bloody idiotic to suggest. Are we going to exit flu, the common cold, HIV? The virus is endemic, you can't exit endemic!
We were under restrictions. We had to exit restrictions, not the virus!
Yes look at the shape of the actual wave. We saw a wave, or more two waves. Look at @Malmesbury age profile data. The first phase of the exit wave was more generalised in ages as the exit wave happened, then that peaked and came down then the second phase of the exit wave was in children primarily as schools reopened.
But yes, keep banging on about how people will die from an endemic disease. You can't guilt trip me over that. Maybe if you hide behind the sofa we can exit disease existing? 🙄🤦♂️
Point of order, but you can exist an endemic disease. Just not on reasonable timescales.
I don't expect that we will "exit" Covid. We will get to the point where it is no longer a threat to the nation and it will recede into the background as just another nasty virus.
So no, I am not proposing that we exit. The term "exit wave" was purported that we had exited Delta over the summer. Which is demonstrably not true.
No it was that we exited restrictions. 🤦♂️
There will always be a wave when you exit restrictions.
I was due to start a High Court case today, the Jury having been empanelled yesterday. The trial did not proceed because an essential Crown Witness had a positive lateral flow test after being in contact with 3 other friends who had positive tests after a night out last week.
At the moment the trial is adjourned to tomorrow to allow a PCR test to be done but I will frankly be amazed if even remote juries are allowed to continue at present. We are asking 15 jurors plus sundry staff to stay in the same room as each other for maybe 7 hours a day. We know for a fact that Omicron is at least 3x more infective than Delta. We do not know if social distancing, which seemed to work for Delta, will work. The reasonable assumption is that it won't. And we have the PM telling us that a "tidal wave" of cases is coming in the next few weeks.
I think that is a completely unreasonable thing to ask of a juror. I think we should abandon trials this month and at least the first half of next. I think we need to think seriously about whether schools should have an extended break too. This "tidal wave" threatens our health service. We need to be realistic about what is needed to reduce the height of the wave.
As for those voting against the restrictions in the Commons today, words simply fail me. They are not accepting the seriousness of the situation. Having said words fail me, my opening bid would be irresponsible.
You’ve just made the case for a full lockdown. The nonsense being proposed by the government is both pointless and authoritarian.
As I have said in other posts the criticism of the government should be focused on the point that their restrictions don't go nearly far enough. as an example we need to go back to empty football stadiums immediately, not vaxports (assuming we can find 22 uninfected players to play each other). But rejecting the inadequate steps the government is taking because they do not go far enough is just insane.
Nope, we need to hold the current course and simply deal with it. The only way to stop Omicron is a Chinese style economic shutdown. We have neither the money or means to do that in this country. Ultimately, people are going to die of Omicron and the best thing we can all do is get our third doses and keep our fingers crossed. COVID is an endemic disease, it's simply never going to go away. Anyone who is deluding themselves into believing it can be defeated is going to be extremely disappointed.
I wish that was true Max but it isn't. The position we are in is unhappily similar to where we were last Christmas. Then, it was the vaccines that were riding to the rescue and we did not do enough to reduce the spread before the cavalry arrived resulting in horrendous death figures in January and February. Now, we have anti-virials which look like they are going to massively reduce the risk of death and serious disease within months.
But we also face a serious wave before they are available which is likely to kill many tens of thousands of people. We need to act now to mitigate that and hope that the early promise of new medicines will put us in a better place going forward.
Omicron spreads 4x as fast as Delta which spreads 2x as fast as Alpha. There is no way out. The risk of death is reduced by vaccines, it's on all of us to get our third doses ASAP.
COVID is going to kill many tens of thousands over the next 20-30 years. We're all going to get it, multiple times. It will pick off the old, sick and vulnerable at a rate of 30-50k per year. No amount of lockdown is going to prevent that, and frankly even if it did the idea of locking down every winter is a joke. Vaccines are the only game in town, even molnupiravir doesn't look brilliant with what the FDA described as "marginally better" than not using it.
I think you really, really need to understand that there is no defeating COVID. It's never going away. Our immune defences will go up as the years pass but it's here to stay. Simply billions of domestic and wild animals have it too.
They are an illiberal fart against the wind against Omicron and there's no support for businesses (particularly hospitality) with this de facto lockdown.
Given the numerous cancellations and other behavioural changes the public are in effect locking themselves down. I'd deffo vote against - Freedom Day is a distant memory.
Shocked I tell you, absolutely shocked, on her take...LOCKDOWN NOW....
Prof Reicher says people should be clearly told "don't socialise" or govt could legislate to ensure they do. Reicher says govt should use any time during restrictions to make environments safer, i.e. ventilation etc. If it doesn't it will have "squandered" that time
iSAGE are back with a bang. We need 12 years more Lockdown until every home has been fitted with high grade ventilation systems...
Nobody is arguing for lockdown forever, even people who seem to be a bit shrieky.
Reality is that we have a valid point here - months of 40k new cases a day is not a positive...
You've been wrong for months. It is a fantastic positive.
You still seem to fail to understand that it was an exit wave too. It was both an exit (from restrictions) and a wave (since the 40k was with schools closed, then schools open, without an exponential increase when schools reopened).
Yes, this is a new definition of the words "exit" and "wave".
As you wish.
We exited restrictions, under what twisted meaning of the word "exit" is exiting restrictions not an exit?
And as for wave, yes it was a wave. We managed to get the exit wave done during the school closures, so that when schools reopened the cases didn't start exponentially growing.
Had we not had the exit wave, we would have had exponential growth when schools opened in September.
We're talking about exiting *the virus*, not restrictions. You being able to tit about as you wish isn't impacting the NHS which is what we are talking about.
As a wave? Compare and contrast the shape of an actual wave and the infection numbers. Neither a wave, nor an exit. But as long as *other people* die thanks to your quest for liberty, you are happy.
Nice.
No we're not talking about exiting the virus! Don't be stupid, we're never going to exit the virus, what a bloody idiotic to suggest. Are we going to exit flu, the common cold, HIV? The virus is endemic, you can't exit endemic!
We were under restrictions. We had to exit restrictions, not the virus!
Yes look at the shape of the actual wave. We saw a wave, or more two waves. Look at @Malmesbury age profile data. The first phase of the exit wave was more generalised in ages as the exit wave happened, then that peaked and came down then the second phase of the exit wave was in children primarily as schools reopened.
But yes, keep banging on about how people will die from an endemic disease. You can't guilt trip me over that. Maybe if you hide behind the sofa we can exit disease existing? 🙄🤦♂️
Point of order, but you can exist an endemic disease. Just not on reasonable timescales.
Yes, I guess RP wants 50 years of lockdown, then.
As I have *repeatedly* said that the lockdown I expect we're getting in a few weeks will do nothing, what do you think?
Problem is that some people are pray the pox away and think *any* restrictions are unnecessary. Then we have Philip who is happy for other people to die, so what *shrug*
I have to say in two years "exit the virus" is surely up there among the most stupid things said about it. That there's anyone who believes that is worrying and the government Comms needs to be updated to warn everyone that we're all going to get it and the best way to decrease likelihood of symptoms is to get vaccinated. There is no other game in town.
I agree! So why do you keep saying we had an exit wave?
The vast majority of the UK population are double vaccinated, most South Africans are not vaccinated.
The UK also has a higher percentage of adults already having had their boosters then any other major nation
I think it's referring to the sustained pressure on the UK NHS for months.
Sustained pressure is a good thing. It flattens the sombrero.
Every day that passes with sustained pressure in the past means a better off future.
People will be flattening your sombrero, Philip, if you keep puffing so hard and relentlessly on the drivel pipe.
You unhappy at uncomfortable truths being pointed out?
I'm a big fan of recognizing uncomfortable truths. The one which springs to mind here is we have to live with Covid and a part of living with Covid is managing the waves of serious illness it periodically causes. This means preventing the NHS collapsing is the top priority. That was the case for previous waves and it remains the case for this one. Ditto the next and the one after that and the one after that. It's here for good. We have to live with it. No choice is there?
The NHS priority is a political consensus and it reflects the consensus of society. We can debate the marginal costs and benefits of various options, the plan Bs and Cs, we can emphasize the importance of personal freedoms, the right balance between law and guidance, all of that, but there's no point underplaying what the virus can do or saying that protecting the NHS shouldn't be the priority. That is howling at the moon. So is all the crazy stuff about "scientists wanting to lock us down forever" and frigging their models to give a deliberately false Armageddon scenario.
The fact that even such a relatively small tightening in restrictions is quite rightly getting potentially 80 plus rebels shows that people are beginning to say enough is enough.
The time has come for those of us who believe in liberties to stand up for what we believe in. We can not remain indefinitely an NHS with a country attached.
"NHS with a country attached" ... oh dear. I seem to have wandered into Ye Olde Fatuous Reactionary Arms.
Well our return to the office which was scheduled for Monday the 7th of February, has once more been postponed.
Not until after Easter is the latest marker.
Am I ever going to be in the same office as my staff again?
Not unless risk tolerances evolve. It’s a tricky one for expats and those in mixed nationality families as well. Will we ever return to our prior state of globalisation? Trickier than you going back to the office, as it needs a change in risk tolerances in many countries.
I have to say in two years "exit the virus" is surely up there among the most stupid things said about it. That there's anyone who believes that is worrying and the government Comms needs to be updated to warn everyone that we're all going to get it and the best way to decrease likelihood of symptoms is to get vaccinated. There is no other game in town.
Almost nobody out there understands this Max. They get distressed when you say it to them as though you’re blaspheming.
Yes, this is because of all the unnecessary scaremongering from the science wankers and NHS wankers who couldn't help themselves. COVID is bad, sure, but it's also not going anywhere. Unless people are advocating forever restrictions they need to get real.
The vast majority of the UK population are double vaccinated, most South Africans are not vaccinated.
The UK also has a higher percentage of adults already having had their boosters then any other major nation
I think it's referring to the sustained pressure on the UK NHS for months.
Sustained pressure is a good thing. It flattens the sombrero.
Every day that passes with sustained pressure in the past means a better off future.
People will be flattening your sombrero, Philip, if you keep puffing so hard and relentlessly on the drivel pipe.
You unhappy at uncomfortable truths being pointed out?
I'm a big fan of recognizing uncomfortable truths. The one which springs to mind here is we have to live with Covid and a part of living with Covid is managing the waves of serious illness it periodically causes. This means preventing the NHS collapsing is the top priority. That was the case for previous waves and it remains the case for this one. Ditto the next and the one after that and the one after that. It's here for good. We have to live with it. No choice is there?
The NHS priority is a political consensus and it reflects the consensus of society. We can debate the marginal costs and benefits of various options, the plan Bs and Cs, we can emphasize the importance of personal freedoms, the right balance between law and guidance, all of that, but there's no point underplaying what the virus can do or saying that protecting the NHS shouldn't be the priority. That is howling at the moon. So is all the crazy stuff about "scientists wanting to lock us down forever" and frigging their models to give a deliberately false Armageddon scenario.
The fact that even such a relatively small tightening in restrictions is quite rightly getting potentially 80 plus rebels shows that people are beginning to say enough is enough.
The time has come for those of us who believe in liberties to stand up for what we believe in. We can not remain indefinitely an NHS with a country attached.
"NHS with a country attached" ... oh dear. I seem to have wandered into Ye Olde Fatuous Reactionary Arms.
Very swift half, I think.
I think you'll find in this pub, only shots are available.
I was due to start a High Court case today, the Jury having been empanelled yesterday. The trial did not proceed because an essential Crown Witness had a positive lateral flow test after being in contact with 3 other friends who had positive tests after a night out last week.
At the moment the trial is adjourned to tomorrow to allow a PCR test to be done but I will frankly be amazed if even remote juries are allowed to continue at present. We are asking 15 jurors plus sundry staff to stay in the same room as each other for maybe 7 hours a day. We know for a fact that Omicron is at least 3x more infective than Delta. We do not know if social distancing, which seemed to work for Delta, will work. The reasonable assumption is that it won't. And we have the PM telling us that a "tidal wave" of cases is coming in the next few weeks.
I think that is a completely unreasonable thing to ask of a juror. I think we should abandon trials this month and at least the first half of next. I think we need to think seriously about whether schools should have an extended break too. This "tidal wave" threatens our health service. We need to be realistic about what is needed to reduce the height of the wave.
As for those voting against the restrictions in the Commons today, words simply fail me. They are not accepting the seriousness of the situation. Having said words fail me, my opening bid would be irresponsible.
You’ve just made the case for a full lockdown. The nonsense being proposed by the government is both pointless and authoritarian.
As I have said in other posts the criticism of the government should be focused on the point that their restrictions don't go nearly far enough. as an example we need to go back to empty football stadiums immediately, not vaxports (assuming we can find 22 uninfected players to play each other). But rejecting the inadequate steps the government is taking because they do not go far enough is just insane.
Nope, we need to hold the current course and simply deal with it. The only way to stop Omicron is a Chinese style economic shutdown. We have neither the money or means to do that in this country. Ultimately, people are going to die of Omicron and the best thing we can all do is get our third doses and keep our fingers crossed. COVID is an endemic disease, it's simply never going to go away. Anyone who is deluding themselves into believing it can be defeated is going to be extremely disappointed.
Omicron is the end game as far as covid being anything out of the ordinary is concerned (the benchmark for this being winter flu, which kills thousands every year). It will rip through populations over the next couple or few months, after which the pandemic as an exceptional phenomenon will essentially be over.
The object of public policy meantime is to ensure that the dramatic peak of cases that we are heading towards doesn’t force us to shut the rest of our national healthcare system down. And, hopefully, to re-open our economy as soon as it becomes clear in 2022 that we are over the worst.
Proud of the Tory backbenches. There's hope for the party yet.
Being the earliest riser, for my cold shower to start the day, I used to see to the chickens, restless and complaining, waiting for me to let out into their run.
But I would never praise the chickens or count the eggs until I saw the eggs. 🐓🥚🍳
They are an illiberal fart against the wind against Omicron and there's no support for businesses (particularly hospitality) with this de facto lockdown.
As would I. And I'm listening to Javid struggling to make any sense at all. If Omicron is as bad as he keeps saying he is then their contradictory half-baked crap proposals are completely pointless.
We won't need to lockdown as chunks of the economy will simply shut themselves down as we drown in infections. Or we won't and it won't.
Shocked I tell you, absolutely shocked, on her take...LOCKDOWN NOW....
Prof Reicher says people should be clearly told "don't socialise" or govt could legislate to ensure they do. Reicher says govt should use any time during restrictions to make environments safer, i.e. ventilation etc. If it doesn't it will have "squandered" that time
iSAGE are back with a bang. We need 12 years more Lockdown until every home has been fitted with high grade ventilation systems...
Nobody is arguing for lockdown forever, even people who seem to be a bit shrieky.
Reality is that we have a valid point here - months of 40k new cases a day is not a positive...
You've been wrong for months. It is a fantastic positive.
You still seem to fail to understand that it was an exit wave too. It was both an exit (from restrictions) and a wave (since the 40k was with schools closed, then schools open, without an exponential increase when schools reopened).
Yes, this is a new definition of the words "exit" and "wave".
As you wish.
We exited restrictions, under what twisted meaning of the word "exit" is exiting restrictions not an exit?
And as for wave, yes it was a wave. We managed to get the exit wave done during the school closures, so that when schools reopened the cases didn't start exponentially growing.
Had we not had the exit wave, we would have had exponential growth when schools opened in September.
We're talking about exiting *the virus*, not restrictions. You being able to tit about as you wish isn't impacting the NHS which is what we are talking about.
As a wave? Compare and contrast the shape of an actual wave and the infection numbers. Neither a wave, nor an exit. But as long as *other people* die thanks to your quest for liberty, you are happy.
Nice.
“Exit the virus”. It must be a nice view from on top of your unicorn.
Exit the virus*, pursued by a Boer**?
*variants up to and including delta **[variant] - omicron
Its worth remembering 70% of cases have been unvaccinated people and the hospitalisations / deaths are proportionally massively tilted towards that group.
Should we have carried on restrictions just to keep the unvaccinated safe?
Ah - I wondered about this. I think the answer is probably no - although I can see the case for restrictions of some kind continuing until the vast majority have been boostered or offered it. After my Moderna booster 21 hours ago still waiting for any notable side effect...
"The country will face an “exit wave” of coronavirus infections whenever restrictions are lifted, England’s chief medical officer has said."
DEMONSTRABLY AN ABUSE OF THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
If we had seen cases rise and fall then fine. But we didn't. Cases rose. And with some variations at the top stayed largely the same. We didn't see the dropping away as we exit that wave. Its just stayed high permanently.
Well our return to the office which was scheduled for Monday the 7th of February, has once more been postponed.
Not until after Easter is the latest marker.
Am I ever going to be in the same office as my staff again?
It's up to you and your employer but there's been no WFH mandate for about the last 5 months.
We've been going to work odd days here and there, but not all together.
One of my staff is immunocompromised, another is pregnant (so wasn't jabbed), a couple more live with people who had to shield.
I meant a full team return to work.
My pregnant colleague had her booster yesterday, as well as covid itself about a month back. Her daughter should be born with a good level of covid protection.
Comments
At the moment the trial is adjourned to tomorrow to allow a PCR test to be done but I will frankly be amazed if even remote juries are allowed to continue at present. We are asking 15 jurors plus sundry staff to stay in the same room as each other for maybe 7 hours a day. We know for a fact that Omicron is at least 3x more infective than Delta. We do not know if social distancing, which seemed to work for Delta, will work. The reasonable assumption is that it won't. And we have the PM telling us that a "tidal wave" of cases is coming in the next few weeks.
I think that is a completely unreasonable thing to ask of a juror. I think we should abandon trials this month and at least the first half of next. I think we need to think seriously about whether schools should have an extended break too. This "tidal wave" threatens our health service. We need to be realistic about what is needed to reduce the height of the wave.
As for those voting against the restrictions in the Commons today, words simply fail me. They are not accepting the seriousness of the situation. Having said words fail me, my opening bid would be irresponsible.
As you wish.
The only question now is does Boris buckle now and cancel Christmas or do we get a lockdown at the start of January.
Even most conservative estimates “bleak”.
Big push coming on those voting against restrictions tonight
Whitty doing zoom for rebels.
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1470744771060805635
Someone elsewhere argued that it would be easier for Boris to sell a full lockdown and I actually do agree with that except I suspect even a full lockdown won't help with Omicron.
And as for wave, yes it was a wave. We managed to get the exit wave done during the school closures, so that when schools reopened the cases didn't start exponentially growing.
Had we not had the exit wave, we would have had exponential growth when schools opened in September.
https://twitter.com/IainMcGill/status/1470745345600671747
For context, Iain is the "unluckiest Scottish Tory candidate in history"
Sure, run with that.
We then had a wave, or more two waves. Wave one happened while schools were closed, then we had a second wave amongst kids when schools reopened which didn't see exponential growth because the prior wave had just happened.
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1470746320180817921
I too would be voting against: these measures are neither one thing nor the other. The govt won't lose but if it did, it should be told to come back and do it properly (which is why Labour should vote against - the alternative isn't 'nothing').
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1470733466480300032?s=20
When they announced Plan B, he really emphasised that he wasn't him, it was the cabinet that signed it off, and now here is some really scary data from South Africa....
https://twitter.com/GeorgeWParker/status/1470747075696594944
As a wave? Compare and contrast the shape of an actual wave and the infection numbers. Neither a wave, nor an exit. But as long as *other people* die thanks to your quest for liberty, you are happy.
Nice.
The exit wave for delta may well be incoming with the arrival of omicron - and that will be at a point when we're putting up more restrictions.
Should we have carried on restrictions just to keep the unvaccinated safe?
Its only a rough estimate, but unvaccinated people have consistently made up a big chunk, far in excess of the proportion of the population. Same with hospitalisations.
* I think it would mean near enough identical case rates in the vaxxed and unvaxxed...
We were under restrictions. We had to exit restrictions, not the virus!
Yes look at the shape of the actual wave. We saw a wave, or more two waves. Look at @Malmesbury age profile data. The first phase of the exit wave was more generalised in ages as the exit wave happened, then that peaked and came down then the second phase of the exit wave was in children primarily as schools reopened.
But yes, keep banging on about how people will die from an endemic disease. You can't guilt trip me over that. Maybe if you hide behind the sofa we can exit disease existing? 🙄🤦♂️
Now it looks like boosted, it will be the same.
The World Health Organization (WHO) says it is investigating the deaths of nearly 100 people who succumbed to a yet to be identified disease in Fangak, Jonglei State, in South Sudan.
Last week, the ministry of health reported that an unknown disease had killed dozens of people in the area which is one of the worst hit by recent flooding.
https://www.bbc.com/news/topics/c302m85q54lt/south-sudan
The NHS priority is a political consensus and it reflects the consensus of society. We can debate the marginal costs and benefits of various options, the plan Bs and Cs, we can emphasize the importance of personal freedoms, the right balance between law and guidance, all of that, but there's no point underplaying what the virus can do or saying that protecting the NHS shouldn't be the priority. That is howling at the moon. So is all the crazy stuff about "scientists wanting to lock us down forever" and frigging their models to give a deliberately false Armageddon scenario.
Hence why ZOE app will regularly have much higher case numbers than the official ones.
But as a finger in the air, what we can take from it, is a substantial proportion of the case numbers we have been seeing are from unvaccinated people. And it translates to a substantial (and disproportion) number of them in hospital.
The stats for risk when fully vaxxed are such that outside the very vulnerable, you really needed to be worrying about that hot iron or the bus coming down the road at 40 mph...
More realistically, given ramp-up time and reduced demands on Sundays and (presumably) Christmas, it'd mean at least 1.5m doses/day on some days - which is a tripling of current capacity. Where's that going to come from? it's surely unachievable in such a short timescale.
And yet it's been signed off. Why? Because if it hadn't been, what then is the protection against the omicron wave?
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/covid-exit-wave-lockdown-ends-chris-whitty-b945392.html
"The country will face an “exit wave” of coronavirus infections whenever restrictions are lifted, England’s chief medical officer has said."
fire up the QUITE klaxon, you lot are more than welcome to use it all afternoon.
*will the pre-existing solid number of boosters distributed be enough?
*if it's less than enough, can we top it up quickly enough?
*if not, will large volumes of severe/mild sickness/self-isolation harm the NHS, and also other key industries?
The time has come for those of us who believe in liberties to stand up for what we believe in. We can not remain indefinitely an NHS with a country attached.
The problem is, if they have called it right on balance, they won't get any credit, as there will still be plenty in hospital regardless.
@ProfTimBale
1h
Fab piece by
@estwebber
- save for the 'Conservative Insider' who said, “If we lose North Shropshire and a stalking horse emerges that may shake the kaleidoscope.” JESUS, HOW MANY TIMES? THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS A STALKING HORSE ANYMORE.
https://www.politico.eu/article/boris-johnson-christmas-party-investigation-uk-covid/
But.. is she right?
@estwebber
Replying to
@ProfTimBale
Thanks Tim! I think there's a more colloquial meaning these days, right? Not a requirement but someone to test the water/get things moving
https://twitter.com/estwebber/status/1470752164360474629
You can't exit the virus!
But we also face a serious wave before they are available which is likely to kill many tens of thousands of people. We need to act now to mitigate that and hope that the early promise of new medicines will put us in a better place going forward.
1m
Maybe, but still think the term should be taken outside and shot, then cut up and boiled down for glue. Suspect @philipjcowley feels similarly!
If a full lockdown is needed then the same financial support as was given in spring 2020 needs to be given now. No ifs, no buts.
We've heard nothing on this from either the government, the rebels or Labour.
So, frankly, they can all go fuck themselves.
Their words, not mine.
Not until after Easter is the latest marker.
Am I ever going to be in the same office as my staff again?
If I've got that right then saying that 70% of such results (real + hypothetical) are unvaccinated people then I find that very surprising. It means (I think) that if you are vaccinated even where you come in contact with Covid pathogen as often as unvaccinated people you are far less likely to test positive for it.
I said above its disgusting that we've got no Opposition from the Opposition.
I can understand what the Government is thinking, but with 80+ rebels what on earth are Labour thinking in saying they'll vote for restrictions without even asking for financial support in return? It doesn't cost them anything to make that quid pro quo demand.
Its farcical.
Aside from that I got my booster today, Moderna to follow my two doses of AstraZenaca, and I was pleasantly surprised at how well organised and speedy the pharmacy was. My guestimate is that they could easily do 30 people an hour if they kept up the rate I saw.
They are an illiberal fart against the wind against Omicron and there's no support for businesses (particularly hospitality) with this de facto lockdown.
So no, I am not proposing that we exit. The term "exit wave" was purported that we had exited Delta over the summer. Which is demonstrably not true.
There will always be a wave when you exit restrictions.
COVID is going to kill many tens of thousands over the next 20-30 years. We're all going to get it, multiple times. It will pick off the old, sick and vulnerable at a rate of 30-50k per year. No amount of lockdown is going to prevent that, and frankly even if it did the idea of locking down every winter is a joke. Vaccines are the only game in town, even molnupiravir doesn't look brilliant with what the FDA described as "marginally better" than not using it.
I think you really, really need to understand that there is no defeating COVID. It's never going away. Our immune defences will go up as the years pass but it's here to stay. Simply billions of domestic and wild animals have it too.
Problem is that some people are pray the pox away and think *any* restrictions are unnecessary. Then we have Philip who is happy for other people to die, so what *shrug*
Boris Johnson told us on 12 March 2020: "many more families are going to lose loved ones before their time".
He didn't take preventive measures until 23 March. By then, cases had risen 8-fold.
https://twitter.com/uk_domain_names/status/1470753171735781384
DEMONSTRABLY AN ABUSE OF THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
Very swift half, I think.
The object of public policy meantime is to ensure that the dramatic peak of cases that we are heading towards doesn’t force us to shut the rest of our national healthcare system down. And, hopefully, to re-open our economy as soon as it becomes clear in 2022 that we are over the worst.
But I would never praise the chickens or count the eggs until I saw the eggs. 🐓🥚🍳
One of my staff is immunocompromised, another is pregnant (so wasn't jabbed), a couple more live with people who had to shield.
I meant a full team return to work.
We won't need to lockdown as chunks of the economy will simply shut themselves down as we drown in infections. Or we won't and it won't.
*variants up to and including delta
**[variant] - omicron
Drink myself to death Y/N?