They are an illiberal fart against the wind against Omicron and there's no support for businesses (particularly hospitality) with this de facto lockdown.
As would I. And I'm listening to Javid struggling to make any sense at all. If Omicron is as bad as he keeps saying he is then their contradictory half-baked crap proposals are completely pointless.
We won't need to lockdown as chunks of the economy will simply shut themselves down as we drown in infections. Or we won't and it won't.
Time to fill the freezer with well aged organic beef, some ducks, some lamb shoulders. And the pantry with red wine, whisky and quality chocolate. Looks like the entertaining will be on the sly in the home for a while after a Xmas.
"The country will face an “exit wave” of coronavirus infections whenever restrictions are lifted, England’s chief medical officer has said."
DEMONSTRABLY AN ABUSE OF THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
If we had seen cases rise and fall then fine. But we didn't. Cases rose. And with some variations at the top stayed largely the same. We didn't see the dropping away as we exit that wave. Its just stayed high permanently.
We did see them fall.
Because in the first phase schools were closed, in the second the schools were reopened.
Unless you have come to some perverted belief that schools don't affect transmission? Is that your claim now?
I was due to start a High Court case today, the Jury having been empanelled yesterday. The trial did not proceed because an essential Crown Witness had a positive lateral flow test after being in contact with 3 other friends who had positive tests after a night out last week.
At the moment the trial is adjourned to tomorrow to allow a PCR test to be done but I will frankly be amazed if even remote juries are allowed to continue at present. We are asking 15 jurors plus sundry staff to stay in the same room as each other for maybe 7 hours a day. We know for a fact that Omicron is at least 3x more infective than Delta. We do not know if social distancing, which seemed to work for Delta, will work. The reasonable assumption is that it won't. And we have the PM telling us that a "tidal wave" of cases is coming in the next few weeks.
I think that is a completely unreasonable thing to ask of a juror. I think we should abandon trials this month and at least the first half of next. I think we need to think seriously about whether schools should have an extended break too. This "tidal wave" threatens our health service. We need to be realistic about what is needed to reduce the height of the wave.
As for those voting against the restrictions in the Commons today, words simply fail me. They are not accepting the seriousness of the situation. Having said words fail me, my opening bid would be irresponsible.
You’ve just made the case for a full lockdown. The nonsense being proposed by the government is both pointless and authoritarian.
As I have said in other posts the criticism of the government should be focused on the point that their restrictions don't go nearly far enough. as an example we need to go back to empty football stadiums immediately, not vaxports (assuming we can find 22 uninfected players to play each other). But rejecting the inadequate steps the government is taking because they do not go far enough is just insane.
Nope, we need to hold the current course and simply deal with it. The only way to stop Omicron is a Chinese style economic shutdown. We have neither the money or means to do that in this country. Ultimately, people are going to die of Omicron and the best thing we can all do is get our third doses and keep our fingers crossed. COVID is an endemic disease, it's simply never going to go away. Anyone who is deluding themselves into believing it can be defeated is going to be extremely disappointed.
Omicron is the end game as far as covid ... as an exceptional phenomenon will essentially be over.
.
I'm afraid you have no knowledge of that and nor does anyone else. I refer you to mine and Leon's 2nd Rule of Covid Hubris.
I think this very long thread (sorry if posted already) gets to the nub of Omicron decision making.
The pace and sheer level of uncertainty of a short generation period wave with breakthrough infections gives a far wider range of credible outcomes and far bigger error bars even on good modelling, that it remains a wild stab in the dark to know what measures to go for. There are far more variables at play. SA is starting to narrow those options but not yet enough.
Am thinking, if we do enough to reduce contact to keep Hospitalisations, if not infections, low, or if it is a little milder, then the speed we might relax things could be much quicker this time
I have to say in two years "exit the virus" is surely up there among the most stupid things said about it. That there's anyone who believes that is worrying and the government Comms needs to be updated to warn everyone that we're all going to get it and the best way to decrease likelihood of symptoms is to get vaccinated. There is no other game in town.
I agree! So why do you keep saying we had an exit wave?
Because we did? Immunity and vaccine coverage in the UK is the highest in the world. Despite all of the doom rhetoric from the scientists we're not in any lockdown while most of Europe has got severe restrictions on going anywhere. Omicron may change the game, it may not. But in the summer to now 11-13m people got the virus, 70-80% of them unvaccinated by choice. Would you rather they had zero immunity heading into the Omicron wave?
Don't take my word for it Chris Whitty said it in June. It was and remains the right strategy, everyone is going ti get COVID. Lockdowns and NPIs displace infections, but now the vaccine cavalry is already here, last winter it wasn't so displacement of 1000 infections was ~9.5 lives saved. Today displacement of infections will save close to zero lives, anyone who wants to be can get vaccinated. I walked into a pharmacy with my wife yesterday and we both got our boosters.
Again and again, the only game in town is vaccines. Lockdowns will do nothing because the moment we unlock the virus will be back. Infecting all those same idiots who refused the vaccine. Lockdown to save people who refused the vaccine is immoral, better to tell them to die at home.
Boris Johnson will address a meeting of the 1922 committee in person at 5:30pm today to talk down the Covid rebels. Allies of the PM say “the numbers are coming down” but they’re still preparing for a big rebellion, https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1470756958235992067
I was due to start a High Court case today, the Jury having been empanelled yesterday. The trial did not proceed because an essential Crown Witness had a positive lateral flow test after being in contact with 3 other friends who had positive tests after a night out last week.
At the moment the trial is adjourned to tomorrow to allow a PCR test to be done but I will frankly be amazed if even remote juries are allowed to continue at present. We are asking 15 jurors plus sundry staff to stay in the same room as each other for maybe 7 hours a day. We know for a fact that Omicron is at least 3x more infective than Delta. We do not know if social distancing, which seemed to work for Delta, will work. The reasonable assumption is that it won't. And we have the PM telling us that a "tidal wave" of cases is coming in the next few weeks.
I think that is a completely unreasonable thing to ask of a juror. I think we should abandon trials this month and at least the first half of next. I think we need to think seriously about whether schools should have an extended break too. This "tidal wave" threatens our health service. We need to be realistic about what is needed to reduce the height of the wave.
As for those voting against the restrictions in the Commons today, words simply fail me. They are not accepting the seriousness of the situation. Having said words fail me, my opening bid would be irresponsible.
You’ve just made the case for a full lockdown. The nonsense being proposed by the government is both pointless and authoritarian.
As I have said in other posts the criticism of the government should be focused on the point that their restrictions don't go nearly far enough. as an example we need to go back to empty football stadiums immediately, not vaxports (assuming we can find 22 uninfected players to play each other). But rejecting the inadequate steps the government is taking because they do not go far enough is just insane.
Nope, we need to hold the current course and simply deal with it. The only way to stop Omicron is a Chinese style economic shutdown. We have neither the money or means to do that in this country. Ultimately, people are going to die of Omicron and the best thing we can all do is get our third doses and keep our fingers crossed. COVID is an endemic disease, it's simply never going to go away. Anyone who is deluding themselves into believing it can be defeated is going to be extremely disappointed.
Omicron is the end game as far as covid ... as an exceptional phenomenon will essentially be over.
.
I'm afraid you have no knowledge of that and nor does anyone else. I refer you to mine and Leon's 2nd Rule of Covid Hubris.
Of course. It’s my *bold* prediction.
But look back to 1918-19. After a third wave ripped through, the flu essentially disappeared as a distinct medical phenomenon, and faded into the background as just one of the viruses people got routinely. We can’t know when this will happen - but my call is by next spring.
In any event, I am boosted by the knowledge that any ‘rule’ based on posts from Sean/Leon won’t be based on very much thought let alone real analysis. And that he’ll be saying something entirely different the moment there’s a sniff that the wind has changed.
I was due to start a High Court case today, the Jury having been empanelled yesterday. The trial did not proceed because an essential Crown Witness had a positive lateral flow test after being in contact with 3 other friends who had positive tests after a night out last week.
At the moment the trial is adjourned to tomorrow to allow a PCR test to be done but I will frankly be amazed if even remote juries are allowed to continue at present. We are asking 15 jurors plus sundry staff to stay in the same room as each other for maybe 7 hours a day. We know for a fact that Omicron is at least 3x more infective than Delta. We do not know if social distancing, which seemed to work for Delta, will work. The reasonable assumption is that it won't. And we have the PM telling us that a "tidal wave" of cases is coming in the next few weeks.
I think that is a completely unreasonable thing to ask of a juror. I think we should abandon trials this month and at least the first half of next. I think we need to think seriously about whether schools should have an extended break too. This "tidal wave" threatens our health service. We need to be realistic about what is needed to reduce the height of the wave.
As for those voting against the restrictions in the Commons today, words simply fail me. They are not accepting the seriousness of the situation. Having said words fail me, my opening bid would be irresponsible.
Some posters think that fact-based posts like this are hysterical. They are not. We won't need lockdown, we're going to have shutdown as has just happened with your trial.
I think that this is right. Almost every business I am aware of which did not sneak its Christmas party into the first week in December has cancelled. Social events are being cancelled left right and centre. The hospitality sector must be in complete crisis with all hopes of recovering from a dreadful year dashed and no support being offered at this point. It's desperately sad for them but my Christmas and New Year will not go beyond close family and will not involve much going out. Despite this, I expect to catch Covid within the next 10 days. It seems simply inevitable at the current rate of infection.
It's not good enough to feel desperately sad for hospitality.
If a full lockdown is needed then the same financial support as was given in spring 2020 needs to be given now. No ifs, no buts.
We've heard nothing on this from either the government, the rebels or Labour.
So, frankly, they can all go fuck themselves.
I agree with the poster earlier who pointed out that this should have been the price of Labour support. But the rebels are living in a fantasy land. People will not be going out to spend money and enjoy themselves in sufficient numbers now whether this is permitted or not.
Which is why, opinion polls notwithstanding, Labour are a rubbish opposition and still not fit for government.
Well our return to the office which was scheduled for Monday the 7th of February, has once more been postponed.
Not until after Easter is the latest marker.
Am I ever going to be in the same office as my staff again?
I love it when managers refer to fellow team members as 'my staff' - conjures up images of old duffers in tweed jackets with one hand behind their backs instructing their manservants to fetch the port.
I have to say in two years "exit the virus" is surely up there among the most stupid things said about it. That there's anyone who believes that is worrying and the government Comms needs to be updated to warn everyone that we're all going to get it and the best way to decrease likelihood of symptoms is to get vaccinated. There is no other game in town.
I agree! So why do you keep saying we had an exit wave?
Because we did? Immunity and vaccine coverage in the UK is the highest in the world. Despite all of the doom rhetoric from the scientists we're not in any lockdown while most of Europe has got severe restrictions on going anywhere. Omicron may change the game, it may not. But in the summer to now 11-13m people got the virus, 70-80% of them unvaccinated by choice. Would you rather they had zero immunity heading into the Omicron wave?
Don't take my word for it Chris Whitty said it in June. It was and remains the right strategy, everyone is going ti get COVID. Lockdowns and NPIs displace infections, but now the vaccine cavalry is already here, last winter it wasn't so displacement of 1000 infections was ~9.5 lives saved. Today displacement of infections will save close to zero lives, anyone who wants to be can get vaccinated. I walked into a pharmacy with my wife yesterday and we both got our boosters.
Again and again, the only game in town is vaccines. Lockdowns will do nothing because the moment we unlock the virus will be back. Infecting all those same idiots who refused the vaccine. Lockdown to save people who refused the vaccine is immoral, better to tell them to die at home.
Over 95% antibodies coverage per ONS survey. Very little chance that the T-cell protection that also comes with that will not be very helpful in limiting severity even if Omicron can evade the antibodies.
I was due to start a High Court case today, the Jury having been empanelled yesterday. The trial did not proceed because an essential Crown Witness had a positive lateral flow test after being in contact with 3 other friends who had positive tests after a night out last week.
At the moment the trial is adjourned to tomorrow to allow a PCR test to be done but I will frankly be amazed if even remote juries are allowed to continue at present. We are asking 15 jurors plus sundry staff to stay in the same room as each other for maybe 7 hours a day. We know for a fact that Omicron is at least 3x more infective than Delta. We do not know if social distancing, which seemed to work for Delta, will work. The reasonable assumption is that it won't. And we have the PM telling us that a "tidal wave" of cases is coming in the next few weeks.
I think that is a completely unreasonable thing to ask of a juror. I think we should abandon trials this month and at least the first half of next. I think we need to think seriously about whether schools should have an extended break too. This "tidal wave" threatens our health service. We need to be realistic about what is needed to reduce the height of the wave.
As for those voting against the restrictions in the Commons today, words simply fail me. They are not accepting the seriousness of the situation. Having said words fail me, my opening bid would be irresponsible.
You’ve just made the case for a full lockdown. The nonsense being proposed by the government is both pointless and authoritarian.
As I have said in other posts the criticism of the government should be focused on the point that their restrictions don't go nearly far enough. as an example we need to go back to empty football stadiums immediately, not vaxports (assuming we can find 22 uninfected players to play each other). But rejecting the inadequate steps the government is taking because they do not go far enough is just insane.
Nope, we need to hold the current course and simply deal with it. The only way to stop Omicron is a Chinese style economic shutdown. We have neither the money or means to do that in this country. Ultimately, people are going to die of Omicron and the best thing we can all do is get our third doses and keep our fingers crossed. COVID is an endemic disease, it's simply never going to go away. Anyone who is deluding themselves into believing it can be defeated is going to be extremely disappointed.
Omicron is the end game as far as covid ... as an exceptional phenomenon will essentially be over.
.
I'm afraid you have no knowledge of that and nor does anyone else. I refer you to mine and Leon's 2nd Rule of Covid Hubris.
Of course. It’s my *bold* prediction.
But look back to 1918-19. After a third wave ripped through, the flu essentially disappeared as a distinct medical phenomenon, and faded into the background as just one of the viruses people got routinely. We can’t know when this will happen - but my call is by next spring.
Omicron could actually force a proper SEIR curve*. Delta never really had enough steam with the vaccines.
* It's what you simultaneously both want and don't want...
Boris Johnson will address a meeting of the 1922 committee in person at 5:30pm today to talk down the Covid rebels. Allies of the PM say “the numbers are coming down” but they’re still preparing for a big rebellion, https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1470756958235992067
Remarkable that Tory ex-ministers don’t understand how their leadership process works:
One ex-minister said the premiership is Johnson’s “for as long as there is no alternative” but warned: “If we lose North Shropshire and a stalking horse [leadership challenger] emerges that may shake the kaleidoscope.”
If this is as bad as Sturgeon is suggesting, it has to be a full lockdown.
Not sure the rhetoric is matching up with the measures.
(I am not keen on lockdowns, as I've made clear before)
If this is spreading as fast as some people are suggesting then we need to just let it rip and this will rip off the bandage.
If this is so super infectious as suggested then zero Covid is so impossible now its not funny. Its just going to spread either way so just live your life and move on.
In exciting Jersey non-fishing news….. they’ve been using a covid treatment in hospital called Ronapreve (apparently a mix of two antibodies) and now preparing to roll it out in the community (I assume to GPs).
Is this the same treatment being used in UK and is it being distributed to GPs or pharmacists?
"The country will face an “exit wave” of coronavirus infections whenever restrictions are lifted, England’s chief medical officer has said."
DEMONSTRABLY AN ABUSE OF THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
If we had seen cases rise and fall then fine. But we didn't. Cases rose. And with some variations at the top stayed largely the same. We didn't see the dropping away as we exit that wave. Its just stayed high permanently.
We did see them fall.
Because in the first phase schools were closed, in the second the schools were reopened.
Unless you have come to some perverted belief that schools don't affect transmission? Is that your claim now?
Lol
Covid cases 17th May 2,220 (7 day average). Then after we made changes a big spike and the pogoing highs and lows around the new baseline.
I have to say in two years "exit the virus" is surely up there among the most stupid things said about it. That there's anyone who believes that is worrying and the government Comms needs to be updated to warn everyone that we're all going to get it and the best way to decrease likelihood of symptoms is to get vaccinated. There is no other game in town.
Indeed. I was shocked and saddened to read that from Rochdale, a man of undoubted high intellect albeit prone at times to hysteria. If he thinks it, how many others do? We need to stop living in a fantasy world and find imaginative ways forward, rather than relying on pipe dreams.
Boris Johnson will address a meeting of the 1922 committee in person at 5:30pm today to talk down the Covid rebels. Allies of the PM say “the numbers are coming down” but they’re still preparing for a big rebellion, https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1470756958235992067
Remarkable that Tory ex-ministers don’t understand how their leadership process works:
One ex-minister said the premiership is Johnson’s “for as long as there is no alternative” but warned: “If we lose North Shropshire and a stalking horse [leadership challenger] emerges that may shake the kaleidoscope.”
Without a senior cabinet member sticking in the knife, I’m not sure what the crystallising moment is for the letters to go in. Once a senior cabinet member stands up, it will be rapid.
I was due to start a High Court case today, the Jury having been empanelled yesterday. The trial did not proceed because an essential Crown Witness had a positive lateral flow test after being in contact with 3 other friends who had positive tests after a night out last week.
At the moment the trial is adjourned to tomorrow to allow a PCR test to be done but I will frankly be amazed if even remote juries are allowed to continue at present. We are asking 15 jurors plus sundry staff to stay in the same room as each other for maybe 7 hours a day. We know for a fact that Omicron is at least 3x more infective than Delta. We do not know if social distancing, which seemed to work for Delta, will work. The reasonable assumption is that it won't. And we have the PM telling us that a "tidal wave" of cases is coming in the next few weeks.
I think that is a completely unreasonable thing to ask of a juror. I think we should abandon trials this month and at least the first half of next. I think we need to think seriously about whether schools should have an extended break too. This "tidal wave" threatens our health service. We need to be realistic about what is needed to reduce the height of the wave.
As for those voting against the restrictions in the Commons today, words simply fail me. They are not accepting the seriousness of the situation. Having said words fail me, my opening bid would be irresponsible.
You’ve just made the case for a full lockdown. The nonsense being proposed by the government is both pointless and authoritarian.
As I have said in other posts the criticism of the government should be focused on the point that their restrictions don't go nearly far enough. as an example we need to go back to empty football stadiums immediately, not vaxports (assuming we can find 22 uninfected players to play each other). But rejecting the inadequate steps the government is taking because they do not go far enough is just insane.
Nope, we need to hold the current course and simply deal with it. The only way to stop Omicron is a Chinese style economic shutdown. We have neither the money or means to do that in this country. Ultimately, people are going to die of Omicron and the best thing we can all do is get our third doses and keep our fingers crossed. COVID is an endemic disease, it's simply never going to go away. Anyone who is deluding themselves into believing it can be defeated is going to be extremely disappointed.
I wish that was true Max but it isn't. The position we are in is unhappily similar to where we were last Christmas. Then, it was the vaccines that were riding to the rescue and we did not do enough to reduce the spread before the cavalry arrived resulting in horrendous death figures in January and February. Now, we have anti-virials which look like they are going to massively reduce the risk of death and serious disease within months.
But we also face a serious wave before they are available which is likely to kill many tens of thousands of people. We need to act now to mitigate that and hope that the early promise of new medicines will put us in a better place going forward.
Omicron spreads 4x as fast as Delta which spreads 2x as fast as Alpha. There is no way out. The risk of death is reduced by vaccines, it's on all of us to get our third doses ASAP.
COVID is going to kill many tens of thousands over the next 20-30 years. We're all going to get it, multiple times. It will pick off the old, sick and vulnerable at a rate of 30-50k per year.....
I don't think we yet have much of an idea of what it will or won't do in a couple of years' time.
If this is as bad as Sturgeon is suggesting, it has to be a full lockdown.
Not sure the rhetoric is matching up with the measures.
(I am not keen on lockdowns, as I've made clear before)
No. If its as bad as Sturgeon and Javid are saying then lockdown barely slows it down as its *already* running rampant. We would need to shut down right now to even attempt to stop it, and thats impossible. So the crap being proposed is futile.
Its shutdown we should be worried about. Forget telling pubs etc to close, their staff will be ill and they'll be shut. If its as bad as the powers that be say. Or not if its not.
Just been for booster - queuing for a drop in centre that also takes bookings is a VERY frustrating experience.
Anyway, given the RSA data out this morning, if hospitalisations are much less likely to need ICU, surely now is the time to be reopening nighingale hospitals with very thin staffing ratios to deal with all the low key hospitalisations and leave real hospitals for the hopefully few serious cases.
That requires nurses the NHS doesn't have.
When people talk about bed crisis / ward closures it's not because of beds breaking - it's a lack of staff to do the work.
That's why I said thinning ratios. If this is a crisis then I'm afraid they need to make some uncomfortable choices.
The data suggests if there is a tidal wave of hospitalisations, they will skew milder than before. So create facilities with lots of beds but half the usual staffing levels and make the best of it - or if it isn't serious enough for hard choices like that, don't flap around trying to act like the world is ending.
Bingo!
And get rid of the distancing that's reduced capacity within the NHS too.
"Oh we have a capacity issue due to this virus, why don't we reduce capacity further, that will help!"
Nightingales would significantly reduce hospital pressure but acting as triage for marginal cases who just want to know assistance is nearby whilst they're struggling to breathe, but don't actually need intensive intervention yet. Far more bang for buck on the scarce human resource limting factor.
Unless...Boris' intention really is to front it out and do nothing more than get boosters.
I'm not sure any legislation could be passed right now so unless Boris cedes government to the Labour Party he will have to start formulating and following policies that please his own parliamentary party.
Without wanting to sounds like HYUFD: Good!
There must be an incredible proportion of the Tory non-payroll vote today that has signalled a willingness to revolt. Even if the vote isn't lost, its fantastic to see the backbenchers putting the Prime Minister on notice like that.
Its a shame we haven't got an Opposition though. What a disgrace.
SNP don't count? Unless you mean HMO as in Largest Opposing Party?
So the SNP are going to vote against English regulations at the same time as Nicola is announcing even more draconian steps in Scotland? Surely not.
The regulations might be different - Mr Johnson does like to have different regulations from Scotland just to seem different (apart from being later), once he has seen what the Scots are doing.
As for the SNP voting on them, it does depend of course, yes, if there are regulations relevant to the UK as a whole, as always.
"The country will face an “exit wave” of coronavirus infections whenever restrictions are lifted, England’s chief medical officer has said."
DEMONSTRABLY AN ABUSE OF THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
If we had seen cases rise and fall then fine. But we didn't. Cases rose. And with some variations at the top stayed largely the same. We didn't see the dropping away as we exit that wave. Its just stayed high permanently.
We did see them fall.
Because in the first phase schools were closed, in the second the schools were reopened.
Unless you have come to some perverted belief that schools don't affect transmission? Is that your claim now?
Lol
Covid cases 17th May 2,220 (7 day average). Then after we made changes a big spike and the pogoing highs and lows around the new baseline.
Aaron Bell (Con), another member of the science committee, says Dr Angelique Coetzee, chair of the South African Medical Association, told the committee this morning that the measures being introduced by the government were proportionate. He says that is not what her article in the Daily Mail today implied.
Your daily reminder of my prediction about a week ago when some of you were STILL mocking me for my “paranoid delusions” re OMICRON THE LEON-VINDICATOR
Here’s wot I said
“PB PLAGUE PREDICTIONS BINGO
The world is teetering on the abyss. This could all blow over in a week and we go back to worrying about Boris's bald patch OR human civilisation will be snuffed out like a candle at Christingle, probably around Christingle
In that light, what do we predict? I'll go first
Lockdown: YES
Lockdown when: introduced incrementally, but fast. Plan C from about mid December, Plan Z (a harsh lockdown) from around Jan 1
Lockdown how long: not long. It won't do much. 3-4 weeks
UK hospitalisations between now and end March 2022: 310,000
"The country will face an “exit wave” of coronavirus infections whenever restrictions are lifted, England’s chief medical officer has said."
DEMONSTRABLY AN ABUSE OF THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
If we had seen cases rise and fall then fine. But we didn't. Cases rose. And with some variations at the top stayed largely the same. We didn't see the dropping away as we exit that wave. Its just stayed high permanently.
We did see them fall.
Because in the first phase schools were closed, in the second the schools were reopened.
Unless you have come to some perverted belief that schools don't affect transmission? Is that your claim now?
Lol
Covid cases 17th May 2,220 (7 day average). Then after we made changes a big spike and the pogoing highs and lows around the new baseline.
When you say "we did see them fall" it was to 25,722, a mere 11.5x higher than the start. And then up and up and up.
If the restrictions had been ended in a winter period then the exit wave would have been much shorter, because the both population immunity and external conditions would have gradually got less favourable for the virus over time. Instead, because they were ended in summer, external conditions got gradually more favourable for the virus while the population immunity got gradually less favourable. This was probably better in that a spread out wave is much easier to deal with.
So we had:
Summer with a football tournament -> Done Summer with schools out -> Done Autumn with schools in -> Done Winter with schools in and pre-Christmas interactions -> Worst for cases -> High but not accelerating
Delta was almost done. Come spring it would have dropped to a low background level.
Unfortunately, someone sent us Omicron, so the winter wave will just be shorter. Whether it will be too short for the NHS, we still don't know.
Nicola Sturgeon says: "If you do plan on socialising - either at home or in indoor public places - we are asking that you limit the number of households represented in your group to a maximum of three. She says this limit does not apply to people's main Christmas celebration.
I can't see how this makes any difference versus super infectious Omicron. Three households together is a lot of people, and Christmas is a free for all.
I was due to start a High Court case today, the Jury having been empanelled yesterday. The trial did not proceed because an essential Crown Witness had a positive lateral flow test after being in contact with 3 other friends who had positive tests after a night out last week.
At the moment the trial is adjourned to tomorrow to allow a PCR test to be done but I will frankly be amazed if even remote juries are allowed to continue at present. We are asking 15 jurors plus sundry staff to stay in the same room as each other for maybe 7 hours a day. We know for a fact that Omicron is at least 3x more infective than Delta. We do not know if social distancing, which seemed to work for Delta, will work. The reasonable assumption is that it won't. And we have the PM telling us that a "tidal wave" of cases is coming in the next few weeks.
I think that is a completely unreasonable thing to ask of a juror. I think we should abandon trials this month and at least the first half of next. I think we need to think seriously about whether schools should have an extended break too. This "tidal wave" threatens our health service. We need to be realistic about what is needed to reduce the height of the wave.
As for those voting against the restrictions in the Commons today, words simply fail me. They are not accepting the seriousness of the situation. Having said words fail me, my opening bid would be irresponsible.
You’ve just made the case for a full lockdown. The nonsense being proposed by the government is both pointless and authoritarian.
As I have said in other posts the criticism of the government should be focused on the point that their restrictions don't go nearly far enough. as an example we need to go back to empty football stadiums immediately, not vaxports (assuming we can find 22 uninfected players to play each other). But rejecting the inadequate steps the government is taking because they do not go far enough is just insane.
Nope, we need to hold the current course and simply deal with it. The only way to stop Omicron is a Chinese style economic shutdown. We have neither the money or means to do that in this country. Ultimately, people are going to die of Omicron and the best thing we can all do is get our third doses and keep our fingers crossed. COVID is an endemic disease, it's simply never going to go away. Anyone who is deluding themselves into believing it can be defeated is going to be extremely disappointed.
I wish that was true Max but it isn't. The position we are in is unhappily similar to where we were last Christmas. Then, it was the vaccines that were riding to the rescue and we did not do enough to reduce the spread before the cavalry arrived resulting in horrendous death figures in January and February. Now, we have anti-virials which look like they are going to massively reduce the risk of death and serious disease within months.
But we also face a serious wave before they are available which is likely to kill many tens of thousands of people. We need to act now to mitigate that and hope that the early promise of new medicines will put us in a better place going forward.
Omicron spreads 4x as fast as Delta which spreads 2x as fast as Alpha. There is no way out. The risk of death is reduced by vaccines, it's on all of us to get our third doses ASAP.
COVID is going to kill many tens of thousands over the next 20-30 years. We're all going to get it, multiple times. It will pick off the old, sick and vulnerable at a rate of 30-50k per year.....
I don't think we yet have much of an idea of what it will or won't do in a couple of years' time.
If it follows the same path as the flu then this is where we're at. Every winter this kills up to 50k people in a bad year and 10k in a good one.
If this is as bad as Sturgeon is suggesting, it has to be a full lockdown.
Not sure the rhetoric is matching up with the measures.
(I am not keen on lockdowns, as I've made clear before)
If this is spreading as fast as some people are suggesting then we need to just let it rip and this will rip off the bandage.
If this is so super infectious as suggested then zero Covid is so impossible now its not funny. Its just going to spread either way so just live your life and move on.
Unless it kills you of course. Or leaves you with long Covid symptoms. Or just shuts your business down as half the working age population goes off sick.
I do love the notion that you and yours will carry on as normal as the rest of the economy collapses as you "let it rip"
Boris has got himself caught in a trap of his own making, between the immovable wall of reality-denying backbenchers and the slow - but accelerating - advance of the Omicron bulldozer.
I have to say in two years "exit the virus" is surely up there among the most stupid things said about it. That there's anyone who believes that is worrying and the government Comms needs to be updated to warn everyone that we're all going to get it and the best way to decrease likelihood of symptoms is to get vaccinated. There is no other game in town.
Indeed. I was shocked and saddened to read that from Rochdale, a man of undoubted high intellect albeit prone at times to hysteria. If he thinks it, how many others do? We need to stop living in a fantasy world and find imaginative ways forward, rather than relying on pipe dreams.
Yet more lol. When did I propose that we would exit the virus? I am quoting Max who claimed that we already have, that we'd had a successful exit wave.
Again, read what I have actually written not what you wish I had written.
Nicola Sturgeon says: "If you do plan on socialising - either at home or in indoor public places - we are asking that you limit the number of households represented in your group to a maximum of three. She says this limit does not apply to people's main Christmas celebration.
I can't see how this makes any difference versus super infectious Omicron. Three households together is a lot of people, and Christmas is a free for all.
Only a straw in the wind, but a couple of Tory "rebels" have told me they now plan to vote with the govt, partly because they don't want to be in the same division lobby as Marcus "Nazi Germany" Fysh. Wonder if the rebellion will hit the 80 or so predicted..lots of abstentions? https://twitter.com/GeorgeWParker/status/1470747075696594944
I once gobbed on the driver's door handle of his stupid fucking Subaru in the supermarket car park. I'm doing my bit.
Boris has got himself caught in a trap of his own making, between the immovable wall of reality-denying backbenchers and the slow - but accelerating - advance of the Omicron bulldozer.
If the modellers are to be believed there is no slow and bulldozer when it comes to Omicron. Its faster than Max Ver-Crash-En on the final lap of the F1.
Nicola Sturgeon says: "If you do plan on socialising - either at home or in indoor public places - we are asking that you limit the number of households represented in your group to a maximum of three. She says this limit does not apply to people's main Christmas celebration.
I can't see how this makes any difference versus super infectious Omicron. Three households together is a lot of people, and Christmas is a free for all.
I'd have thought 3 households would be a broadly normal number for most families over christmas ?
Without a senior cabinet member sticking in the knife, I’m not sure what the crystallising moment is for the letters to go in. Once a senior cabinet member stands up, it will be rapid.
As I said at the weekend, if Truss really wanted the job she would resign
1) "We are doomed" 2) Useless guidance 3) Blame UK Gov for lack of funding for further restrictions 4) People die, "Tories killed your gran" 5) Indyref2
Boris Johnson will address a meeting of the 1922 committee in person at 5:30pm today to talk down the Covid rebels. Allies of the PM say “the numbers are coming down” but they’re still preparing for a big rebellion, https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1470756958235992067
Remarkable that Tory ex-ministers don’t understand how their leadership process works:
One ex-minister said the premiership is Johnson’s “for as long as there is no alternative” but warned: “If we lose North Shropshire and a stalking horse [leadership challenger] emerges that may shake the kaleidoscope.”
Without a senior cabinet member sticking in the knife, I’m not sure what the crystallising moment is for the letters to go in. Once a senior cabinet member stands up, it will be rapid.
I could imagine Gove wielding the knife in exchange for a big job, eg Chancellor, under Sunak. I don't imagine Gove has serious leadership ambitions himself but I think he has the power to sink Johnson's premiership, and I'm sure that he is disgusted at Johnson's incompetence and entitlement and would be happy to take him out.
"The country will face an “exit wave” of coronavirus infections whenever restrictions are lifted, England’s chief medical officer has said."
DEMONSTRABLY AN ABUSE OF THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
If we had seen cases rise and fall then fine. But we didn't. Cases rose. And with some variations at the top stayed largely the same. We didn't see the dropping away as we exit that wave. Its just stayed high permanently.
We did see them fall.
Because in the first phase schools were closed, in the second the schools were reopened.
Unless you have come to some perverted belief that schools don't affect transmission? Is that your claim now?
Lol
Covid cases 17th May 2,220 (7 day average). Then after we made changes a big spike and the pogoing highs and lows around the new baseline.
When you say "we did see them fall" it was to 25,722, a mere 11.5x higher than the start. And then up and up and up.
You are being so insane now, May was during restrictions, why the hell would it have to fall beneath the figure that is only achievable with restrictions? What an absurd suggestion (!)
Are you so naive and so unwilling to be realistic now that you can't tell the difference between transmission with schools closed and transmission with schools open now?
16 July 47,970.4 13 September 28,540.4
So the 7 day average halved until the schools went back, that's one wave.
You seem to be in utter denial. First you want us to exit the virus, then you want cases to fall below what they were when we were in lockdown. You just clearly haven't grasped the severity of reality have you?
You're getting irate at others because you're in complete denial.
Well our return to the office which was scheduled for Monday the 7th of February, has once more been postponed.
Not until after Easter is the latest marker.
Am I ever going to be in the same office as my staff again?
Why are they so prescriptive? Sensible approach is to leave it up to the staff whether they go in or not until things are clearer. Sometimes it’s helpful to be in the office - indeed I’m heading into mine right now.
"The country will face an “exit wave” of coronavirus infections whenever restrictions are lifted, England’s chief medical officer has said."
DEMONSTRABLY AN ABUSE OF THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
If we had seen cases rise and fall then fine. But we didn't. Cases rose. And with some variations at the top stayed largely the same. We didn't see the dropping away as we exit that wave. Its just stayed high permanently.
We did see them fall.
Because in the first phase schools were closed, in the second the schools were reopened.
Unless you have come to some perverted belief that schools don't affect transmission? Is that your claim now?
Lol
Covid cases 17th May 2,220 (7 day average). Then after we made changes a big spike and the pogoing highs and lows around the new baseline.
When you say "we did see them fall" it was to 25,722, a mere 11.5x higher than the start. And then up and up and up.
Do you remember September when people on here were saying "it's going down, we've reached herd immunity!"?
Flatlander just said "Delta was almost done". When were continuing to see c. 40k new cases every day months and months after the start of the "exit wave".
I have to say in two years "exit the virus" is surely up there among the most stupid things said about it. That there's anyone who believes that is worrying and the government Comms needs to be updated to warn everyone that we're all going to get it and the best way to decrease likelihood of symptoms is to get vaccinated. There is no other game in town.
Indeed. I was shocked and saddened to read that from Rochdale, a man of undoubted high intellect albeit prone at times to hysteria. If he thinks it, how many others do? We need to stop living in a fantasy world and find imaginative ways forward, rather than relying on pipe dreams.
Yet more lol. When did I propose that we would exit the virus? I am quoting Max who claimed that we already have, that we'd had a successful exit wave.
Again, read what I have actually written not what you wish I had written.
You said we could "exit the virus" or stupidly claimed that's what an exit wave does. You're a moron.
Mr. Leon, the Black Death had a 30-50% fatality rate on Western Europe in an age without any real knowledge of medicine.
The idea COVID-19 spells the end times is nonsense.
And that's perfect we cover the plague that carried off Pericles, or bedevilled Rome during the reign of Gallienus in the 3rd century, or the repeated pestilences that whittled down Constantinople's population dramatically.
Well our return to the office which was scheduled for Monday the 7th of February, has once more been postponed.
Not until after Easter is the latest marker.
Am I ever going to be in the same office as my staff again?
Why are they so prescriptive? Sensible approach is to leave it up to the staff whether they go in or not until things are clearer. Sometimes it’s helpful to be in the office - indeed I’m heading into mine right now.
H&S - as my wife's company states - only people who need to be in the office for work or mental health reasons can currently work from the office.
Nicola Sturgeon says: "If you do plan on socialising - either at home or in indoor public places - we are asking that you limit the number of households represented in your group to a maximum of three. She says this limit does not apply to people's main Christmas celebration.
I can't see how this makes any difference versus super infectious Omicron. Three households together is a lot of people, and Christmas is a free for all.
Again this is just stupid. The recommendations are contradictory and full of holes and utterly ineffective. Vote no today.
Nicola Sturgeon says: "If you do plan on socialising - either at home or in indoor public places - we are asking that you limit the number of households represented in your group to a maximum of three. She says this limit does not apply to people's main Christmas celebration.
I can't see how this makes any difference versus super infectious Omicron. Three households together is a lot of people, and Christmas is a free for all.
"Let's look like we're doing something"
"She says this is not a ban or restricted by law, as it was last year."
If Boris had announced this he would be getting crucified every which way.
Without a senior cabinet member sticking in the knife, I’m not sure what the crystallising moment is for the letters to go in. Once a senior cabinet member stands up, it will be rapid.
As I said at the weekend, if Truss really wanted the job she would resign
It's futile anyone resigning before the by-election. If the Conservatives win, you look like you panicked and shot your load too early. If the Conservatives lose, people will try to pin the blame on you for making your party look divided. Friday's the day, and it all comes down to the result.
"The country will face an “exit wave” of coronavirus infections whenever restrictions are lifted, England’s chief medical officer has said."
DEMONSTRABLY AN ABUSE OF THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
If we had seen cases rise and fall then fine. But we didn't. Cases rose. And with some variations at the top stayed largely the same. We didn't see the dropping away as we exit that wave. Its just stayed high permanently.
We did see them fall.
Because in the first phase schools were closed, in the second the schools were reopened.
Unless you have come to some perverted belief that schools don't affect transmission? Is that your claim now?
Lol
Covid cases 17th May 2,220 (7 day average). Then after we made changes a big spike and the pogoing highs and lows around the new baseline.
When you say "we did see them fall" it was to 25,722, a mere 11.5x higher than the start. And then up and up and up.
Do you remember September when people on here were saying "it's going down, we've reached herd immunity!"?
Flatlander just said "Delta was almost done". When were continuing to see c. 40k new cases every day months and months after the start of the "exit wave".
I was due to start a High Court case today, the Jury having been empanelled yesterday. The trial did not proceed because an essential Crown Witness had a positive lateral flow test after being in contact with 3 other friends who had positive tests after a night out last week.
At the moment the trial is adjourned to tomorrow to allow a PCR test to be done but I will frankly be amazed if even remote juries are allowed to continue at present. We are asking 15 jurors plus sundry staff to stay in the same room as each other for maybe 7 hours a day. We know for a fact that Omicron is at least 3x more infective than Delta. We do not know if social distancing, which seemed to work for Delta, will work. The reasonable assumption is that it won't. And we have the PM telling us that a "tidal wave" of cases is coming in the next few weeks.
I think that is a completely unreasonable thing to ask of a juror. I think we should abandon trials this month and at least the first half of next. I think we need to think seriously about whether schools should have an extended break too. This "tidal wave" threatens our health service. We need to be realistic about what is needed to reduce the height of the wave.
As for those voting against the restrictions in the Commons today, words simply fail me. They are not accepting the seriousness of the situation. Having said words fail me, my opening bid would be irresponsible.
Some posters think that fact-based posts like this are hysterical. They are not. We won't need lockdown, we're going to have shutdown as has just happened with your trial.
I think that this is right. Almost every business I am aware of which did not sneak its Christmas party into the first week in December has cancelled. Social events are being cancelled left right and centre. The hospitality sector must be in complete crisis with all hopes of recovering from a dreadful year dashed and no support being offered at this point. It's desperately sad for them but my Christmas and New Year will not go beyond close family and will not involve much going out. Despite this, I expect to catch Covid within the next 10 days. It seems simply inevitable at the current rate of infection.
It's not good enough to feel desperately sad for hospitality.
If a full lockdown is needed then the same financial support as was given in spring 2020 needs to be given now. No ifs, no buts.
We've heard nothing on this from either the government, the rebels or Labour.
So, frankly, they can all go fuck themselves.
I agree with the poster earlier who pointed out that this should have been the price of Labour support. But the rebels are living in a fantasy land. People will not be going out to spend money and enjoy themselves in sufficient numbers now whether this is permitted or not.
I must be unusual then as I have three big dinner bookings in our local gastropub in the next ten days.
Boris has got himself caught in a trap of his own making, between the immovable wall of reality-denying backbenchers and the slow - but accelerating - advance of the Omicron bulldozer.
Not if his booster rollout proves a success. I have just had mine in Harlow
Your daily reminder of my prediction about a week ago when some of you were STILL mocking me for my “paranoid delusions” re OMICRON THE LEON-VINDICATOR
Here’s wot I said
“PB PLAGUE PREDICTIONS BINGO
The world is teetering on the abyss. This could all blow over in a week and we go back to worrying about Boris's bald patch OR human civilisation will be snuffed out like a candle at Christingle, probably around Christingle
In that light, what do we predict? I'll go first
Lockdown: YES
Lockdown when: introduced incrementally, but fast. Plan C from about mid December, Plan Z (a harsh lockdown) from around Jan 1
Lockdown how long: not long. It won't do much. 3-4 weeks
UK hospitalisations between now and end March 2022: 310,000
UK deaths in the same period: 49,000”
I don't know about the rest of it but it is paranoid delusion that I will worry about Boris's bald spot.
"The country will face an “exit wave” of coronavirus infections whenever restrictions are lifted, England’s chief medical officer has said."
DEMONSTRABLY AN ABUSE OF THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
If we had seen cases rise and fall then fine. But we didn't. Cases rose. And with some variations at the top stayed largely the same. We didn't see the dropping away as we exit that wave. Its just stayed high permanently.
We did see them fall.
Because in the first phase schools were closed, in the second the schools were reopened.
Unless you have come to some perverted belief that schools don't affect transmission? Is that your claim now?
Lol
Covid cases 17th May 2,220 (7 day average). Then after we made changes a big spike and the pogoing highs and lows around the new baseline.
When you say "we did see them fall" it was to 25,722, a mere 11.5x higher than the start. And then up and up and up.
Do you remember September when people on here were saying "it's going down, we've reached herd immunity!"?
Flatlander just said "Delta was almost done". When were continuing to see c. 40k new cases every day months and months after the start of the "exit wave".
If thats done I'd hate to see not done.
What's your problem with 40k cases with schools open and it being winter?
Oh right, you're in denial and think we should have zero cases don't you? 🤦♂️
Thread: Early data out of SAMRC shows Omicron causes milder symptoms (with recovery within 3 days), two doses of Pfizer ARE effective against hospitalization, AND data indicates that the severity of Omicron is 29% LOWER than D614G (first) wave of COVID-19 infections in South Africa.
Boris has got himself caught in a trap of his own making, between the immovable wall of reality-denying backbenchers and the slow - but accelerating - advance of the Omicron bulldozer.
It occurs to me that NHS might collapse whatever we do. It doesn’t matter if everyone is entombed in personal tungsten cave-cubicles, we will still get it, 40% of us will get it bad enough to take a week off work maybe 5% will go to hospital and 1% die?
That’s enough to totally fuck the economy. To stop everything. All work. No?
Unless you get wartime recruitment of the well-enough-old, young and recovered to staff shops and drive buses and the like, and what if they then get Delta to go down with it again? There are rumours you can get both.
How does a society function with this level of illness?
IT need to "rebuild my profile" or something, so it's not much work from home for me today. Even less than normal Going on the system would ruin what they're doing or some such.
Nicola Sturgeon says: "If you do plan on socialising - either at home or in indoor public places - we are asking that you limit the number of households represented in your group to a maximum of three. She says this limit does not apply to people's main Christmas celebration.
I can't see how this makes any difference versus super infectious Omicron. Three households together is a lot of people, and Christmas is a free for all.
"Let's look like we're doing something"
"She says this is not a ban or restricted by law, as it was last year."
If Boris had announced this he would be getting crucified every which way.
Boris Johnson will address a meeting of the 1922 committee in person at 5:30pm today to talk down the Covid rebels. Allies of the PM say “the numbers are coming down” but they’re still preparing for a big rebellion, https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1470756958235992067
Remarkable that Tory ex-ministers don’t understand how their leadership process works:
One ex-minister said the premiership is Johnson’s “for as long as there is no alternative” but warned: “If we lose North Shropshire and a stalking horse [leadership challenger] emerges that may shake the kaleidoscope.”
Without a senior cabinet member sticking in the knife, I’m not sure what the crystallising moment is for the letters to go in. Once a senior cabinet member stands up, it will be rapid.
Even if there is a VONC Boris could win it and be safe from challenge for a year, as May won the December 2018 VONC she faced
"The country will face an “exit wave” of coronavirus infections whenever restrictions are lifted, England’s chief medical officer has said."
DEMONSTRABLY AN ABUSE OF THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
If we had seen cases rise and fall then fine. But we didn't. Cases rose. And with some variations at the top stayed largely the same. We didn't see the dropping away as we exit that wave. Its just stayed high permanently.
We did see them fall.
Because in the first phase schools were closed, in the second the schools were reopened.
Unless you have come to some perverted belief that schools don't affect transmission? Is that your claim now?
Lol
Covid cases 17th May 2,220 (7 day average). Then after we made changes a big spike and the pogoing highs and lows around the new baseline.
When you say "we did see them fall" it was to 25,722, a mere 11.5x higher than the start. And then up and up and up.
Do you remember September when people on here were saying "it's going down, we've reached herd immunity!"?
Flatlander just said "Delta was almost done". When were continuing to see c. 40k new cases every day months and months after the start of the "exit wave".
If thats done I'd hate to see not done.
What's your problem with 40k cases with schools open and it being winter?
Oh right, you're in denial and think we should have zero cases don't you? 🤦♂️
I honestly can't imagine how awful Omicron would be without the wall of natural immunity we built up in the summer among the unvaccinated. I genuinely have no idea how we'd handle it, even at lesser average severity.
Thread: Early data out of SAMRC shows Omicron causes milder symptoms (with recovery within 3 days), two doses of Pfizer ARE effective against hospitalization, AND data indicates that the severity of Omicron is 29% LOWER than D614G (first) wave of COVID-19 infections in South Africa.
"The country will face an “exit wave” of coronavirus infections whenever restrictions are lifted, England’s chief medical officer has said."
DEMONSTRABLY AN ABUSE OF THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
If we had seen cases rise and fall then fine. But we didn't. Cases rose. And with some variations at the top stayed largely the same. We didn't see the dropping away as we exit that wave. Its just stayed high permanently.
We did see them fall.
Because in the first phase schools were closed, in the second the schools were reopened.
Unless you have come to some perverted belief that schools don't affect transmission? Is that your claim now?
Lol
Covid cases 17th May 2,220 (7 day average). Then after we made changes a big spike and the pogoing highs and lows around the new baseline.
When you say "we did see them fall" it was to 25,722, a mere 11.5x higher than the start. And then up and up and up.
You are being so insane now, May was during restrictions, why the hell would it have to fall beneath the figure that is only achievable with restrictions? What an absurd suggestion (!)
Are you so naive and so unwilling to be realistic now that you can't tell the difference between transmission with schools closed and transmission with schools open now?
16 July 47,970.4 13 September 28,540.4
So the 7 day average halved until the schools went back, that's one wave.
You seem to be in utter denial. First you want us to exit the virus, then you want cases to fall below what they were when we were in lockdown. You just clearly haven't grasped the severity of reality have you?
You're getting irate at others because you're in complete denial.
More belly laughs at my end - this is great! Had it dropped to 28k and kept falling then that would have been great! Instead that was the new floor and then we saw an ever-increasing level of new floors. 28k. 33k, now 51k.
You said "We did see them fall. Because in the first phase schools were closed, in the second the schools were reopened." Yes. And then they went up again. And up some more. And some more.
We replaced the 2k cases a day with mask restrictions with a very best 28k a day and then up and up. If an ever-increasing number of cases is us exiting having cases then black truly is white.
Do keep it up, you're as funny as HYUFD foaming on about Toryism.
Boris Johnson will address a meeting of the 1922 committee in person at 5:30pm today to talk down the Covid rebels. Allies of the PM say “the numbers are coming down” but they’re still preparing for a big rebellion, https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1470756958235992067
Remarkable that Tory ex-ministers don’t understand how their leadership process works:
One ex-minister said the premiership is Johnson’s “for as long as there is no alternative” but warned: “If we lose North Shropshire and a stalking horse [leadership challenger] emerges that may shake the kaleidoscope.”
Indeed. As I pointed out above, no kaleidoscopes have ever been involved.
Remarkable that Tory ex-ministers don’t understand how their leadership process works:
One ex-minister said the premiership is Johnson’s “for as long as there is no alternative” but warned: “If we lose North Shropshire and a stalking horse [leadership challenger] emerges that may shake the kaleidoscope.”
My guess is they are using stalking horse as shorthand for minimum viable candidate.
It occurs to me that NHS might collapse whatever we do. It doesn’t matter if everyone is entombed in personal tungsten cave-cubicles, we will still get it, 40% of us will get it bad enough to take a week off work maybe 5% will go to hospital and 1% die?
That’s enough to totally fuck the economy. To stop everything. All work. No?
Unless you get wartime recruitment of the well-enough-old, young and recovered to staff shops and drive buses and the like, and what if they then get Delta to go down with it again? There are rumours you can get both.
How does a society function with this level of illness?
AND WHO WILL DIG THE PLAGUE PITS?
By January most of us will have had our boosters and the hospitals will be fine.
I was due to start a High Court case today, the Jury having been empanelled yesterday. The trial did not proceed because an essential Crown Witness had a positive lateral flow test after being in contact with 3 other friends who had positive tests after a night out last week.
At the moment the trial is adjourned to tomorrow to allow a PCR test to be done but I will frankly be amazed if even remote juries are allowed to continue at present. We are asking 15 jurors plus sundry staff to stay in the same room as each other for maybe 7 hours a day. We know for a fact that Omicron is at least 3x more infective than Delta. We do not know if social distancing, which seemed to work for Delta, will work. The reasonable assumption is that it won't. And we have the PM telling us that a "tidal wave" of cases is coming in the next few weeks.
I think that is a completely unreasonable thing to ask of a juror. I think we should abandon trials this month and at least the first half of next. I think we need to think seriously about whether schools should have an extended break too. This "tidal wave" threatens our health service. We need to be realistic about what is needed to reduce the height of the wave.
As for those voting against the restrictions in the Commons today, words simply fail me. They are not accepting the seriousness of the situation. Having said words fail me, my opening bid would be irresponsible.
You’ve just made the case for a full lockdown. The nonsense being proposed by the government is both pointless and authoritarian.
As I have said in other posts the criticism of the government should be focused on the point that their restrictions don't go nearly far enough. as an example we need to go back to empty football stadiums immediately, not vaxports (assuming we can find 22 uninfected players to play each other). But rejecting the inadequate steps the government is taking because they do not go far enough is just insane.
Nope, we need to hold the current course and simply deal with it. The only way to stop Omicron is a Chinese style economic shutdown. We have neither the money or means to do that in this country. Ultimately, people are going to die of Omicron and the best thing we can all do is get our third doses and keep our fingers crossed. COVID is an endemic disease, it's simply never going to go away. Anyone who is deluding themselves into believing it can be defeated is going to be extremely disappointed.
I wish that was true Max but it isn't. The position we are in is unhappily similar to where we were last Christmas. Then, it was the vaccines that were riding to the rescue and we did not do enough to reduce the spread before the cavalry arrived resulting in horrendous death figures in January and February. Now, we have anti-virials which look like they are going to massively reduce the risk of death and serious disease within months.
But we also face a serious wave before they are available which is likely to kill many tens of thousands of people. We need to act now to mitigate that and hope that the early promise of new medicines will put us in a better place going forward.
Omicron spreads 4x as fast as Delta which spreads 2x as fast as Alpha. There is no way out. The risk of death is reduced by vaccines, it's on all of us to get our third doses ASAP.
COVID is going to kill many tens of thousands over the next 20-30 years. We're all going to get it, multiple times. It will pick off the old, sick and vulnerable at a rate of 30-50k per year.....
I don't think we yet have much of an idea of what it will or won't do in a couple of years' time.
If it follows the same path as the flu then this is where we're at. Every winter this kills up to 50k people in a bad year and 10k in a good one.
And if it doesn't, it might not. We have little idea either way for now.
"The country will face an “exit wave” of coronavirus infections whenever restrictions are lifted, England’s chief medical officer has said."
DEMONSTRABLY AN ABUSE OF THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
If we had seen cases rise and fall then fine. But we didn't. Cases rose. And with some variations at the top stayed largely the same. We didn't see the dropping away as we exit that wave. Its just stayed high permanently.
We did see them fall.
Because in the first phase schools were closed, in the second the schools were reopened.
Unless you have come to some perverted belief that schools don't affect transmission? Is that your claim now?
Lol
Covid cases 17th May 2,220 (7 day average). Then after we made changes a big spike and the pogoing highs and lows around the new baseline.
When you say "we did see them fall" it was to 25,722, a mere 11.5x higher than the start. And then up and up and up.
Do you remember September when people on here were saying "it's going down, we've reached herd immunity!"?
Flatlander just said "Delta was almost done". When were continuing to see c. 40k new cases every day months and months after the start of the "exit wave".
If thats done I'd hate to see not done.
What's your problem with 40k cases with schools open and it being winter?
Oh right, you're in denial and think we should have zero cases don't you? 🤦♂️
I honestly can't imagine how awful Omicron would be without the wall of natural immunity we built up in the summer among the unvaccinated. I genuinely have no idea how we'd handle it, even at lesser average severity.
Indeed.
I think our government is overreacting massively, but in much of Europe which has done the policies @RochdalePioneers has been cheering on . . . I worry for them.
Thank goodness we have the immunity we do. We'll need it.
I have to say in two years "exit the virus" is surely up there among the most stupid things said about it. That there's anyone who believes that is worrying and the government Comms needs to be updated to warn everyone that we're all going to get it and the best way to decrease likelihood of symptoms is to get vaccinated. There is no other game in town.
Indeed. I was shocked and saddened to read that from Rochdale, a man of undoubted high intellect albeit prone at times to hysteria. If he thinks it, how many others do? We need to stop living in a fantasy world and find imaginative ways forward, rather than relying on pipe dreams.
Yet more lol. When did I propose that we would exit the virus? I am quoting Max who claimed that we already have, that we'd had a successful exit wave.
Again, read what I have actually written not what you wish I had written.
You said we could "exit the virus" or stupidly claimed that's what an exit wave does. You're a moron.
Yes, I did say that. In that medical report you claimed said that to be the case. I am - and have been - using your exact words. Not mine. The actual report you cited incorrectly had modelled that after the big spike we would then see a big fall in infections - a very literal "exit wave". As in a low level of infections with no restrictions where it had burned through the population.
The problem being that their model sadly proved to be wrong as we saw an 11x uplift and then further rises sadly without the fall.
I will take your observations on morons with a giggle.
513,722 booster vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday (329,165 the previous Monday)
🏴 418,544 🏴 45,601 🏴 26,676 NI 22,901
Are these numbers actually from yesterday, or are we still in an era where there is a reporting delay for jabs? Because if it was yesterday, with supposed queues round the block, we are never going to do 1.x million a day, every day.
"The country will face an “exit wave” of coronavirus infections whenever restrictions are lifted, England’s chief medical officer has said."
DEMONSTRABLY AN ABUSE OF THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
If we had seen cases rise and fall then fine. But we didn't. Cases rose. And with some variations at the top stayed largely the same. We didn't see the dropping away as we exit that wave. Its just stayed high permanently.
We did see them fall.
Because in the first phase schools were closed, in the second the schools were reopened.
Unless you have come to some perverted belief that schools don't affect transmission? Is that your claim now?
Lol
Covid cases 17th May 2,220 (7 day average). Then after we made changes a big spike and the pogoing highs and lows around the new baseline.
When you say "we did see them fall" it was to 25,722, a mere 11.5x higher than the start. And then up and up and up.
You are being so insane now, May was during restrictions, why the hell would it have to fall beneath the figure that is only achievable with restrictions? What an absurd suggestion (!)
Are you so naive and so unwilling to be realistic now that you can't tell the difference between transmission with schools closed and transmission with schools open now?
16 July 47,970.4 13 September 28,540.4
So the 7 day average halved until the schools went back, that's one wave.
You seem to be in utter denial. First you want us to exit the virus, then you want cases to fall below what they were when we were in lockdown. You just clearly haven't grasped the severity of reality have you?
You're getting irate at others because you're in complete denial.
More belly laughs at my end - this is great! Had it dropped to 28k and kept falling then that would have been great! Instead that was the new floor and then we saw an ever-increasing level of new floors. 28k. 33k, now 51k.
You said "We did see them fall. Because in the first phase schools were closed, in the second the schools were reopened." Yes. And then they went up again. And up some more. And some more.
We replaced the 2k cases a day with mask restrictions with a very best 28k a day and then up and up. If an ever-increasing number of cases is us exiting having cases then black truly is white.
Do keep it up, you're as funny as HYUFD foaming on about Toryism.
Why would it keep falling? Schools reopened! Then it became winter.
You are utterly delusional. Had we not had the exit wave we would have seen exponential growth with schools open, no restrictions and winter. To keep levels flat, while circumstances are getting worse, is proof that the wave has happened.
She blames a lack of financial support from the Treasury for lack of further restrictions.
Doesn't the Scottish government have the power to raise income tax by 3 pence in the pound? So it could provide support if it wanted to, no?
I don't think Scotland can borrow money - so it could increase tax and increases services paid for by the estimated tax generated but it can't spend money now that it would collect later.
Remarkable that Tory ex-ministers don’t understand how their leadership process works:
One ex-minister said the premiership is Johnson’s “for as long as there is no alternative” but warned: “If we lose North Shropshire and a stalking horse [leadership challenger] emerges that may shake the kaleidoscope.”
My guess is they are using stalking horse as shorthand for minimum viable candidate.
Not Steve Baker, for example...
Steve Baker could end up PM if Boris imposed another lockdown, which he won't
It occurs to me that NHS might collapse whatever we do. It doesn’t matter if everyone is entombed in personal tungsten cave-cubicles, we will still get it, 40% of us will get it bad enough to take a week off work maybe 5% will go to hospital and 1% die?
That’s enough to totally fuck the economy. To stop everything. All work. No?
Unless you get wartime recruitment of the well-enough-old, young and recovered to staff shops and drive buses and the like, and what if they then get Delta to go down with it again? There are rumours you can get both.
How does a society function with this level of illness?
AND WHO WILL DIG THE PLAGUE PITS?
I think the point is that the die is cast. Omicron is here and it's not going anywhere. Delta at least looks like it's been completely displaced. At the Rt values bring thrown around I'm not sure people understand just how infectious it is, we all need to get our boosters and hope for the best. It's actually the only path we've got. As I've been saying, at least we don't have 8-10m completely virus naive people. That natural immunity we built up over the summer will probably be the big difference with how we experience Omicron and other countries do.
Comments
Good grief.
You're occasionally irritating but great fun and your presence on here is required, even from the Balearics. Bastard.
Says 20% of covid hospital cases are incidental, and 80% are really covid.
NHS stats website shows it's much closer to 1/3rd, 2/3rds.
Because in the first phase schools were closed, in the second the schools were reopened.
Unless you have come to some perverted belief that schools don't affect transmission? Is that your claim now?
The SNP saw loons removed and dumped into the Alba party. Starmer really needs to engineer the same for the Campaign Group.
The pace and sheer level of uncertainty of a short generation period wave with breakthrough infections gives a far wider range of credible outcomes and far bigger error bars even on good modelling, that it remains a wild stab in the dark to know what measures to go for. There are far more variables at play. SA is starting to narrow those options but not yet enough.
https://twitter.com/JamesWard73/status/1470680953643319305?t=wjMyb-4iurnpg5ZLDxjW3w&s=19
Am thinking, if we do enough to reduce contact to keep Hospitalisations, if not infections, low, or if it is a little milder, then the speed we might relax things could be much quicker this time
Don't take my word for it Chris Whitty said it in June. It was and remains the right strategy, everyone is going ti get COVID. Lockdowns and NPIs displace infections, but now the vaccine cavalry is already here, last winter it wasn't so displacement of 1000 infections was ~9.5 lives saved. Today displacement of infections will save close to zero lives, anyone who wants to be can get vaccinated. I walked into a pharmacy with my wife yesterday and we both got our boosters.
Again and again, the only game in town is vaccines. Lockdowns will do nothing because the moment we unlock the virus will be back. Infecting all those same idiots who refused the vaccine. Lockdown to save people who refused the vaccine is immoral, better to tell them to die at home.
https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1470756958235992067
But look back to 1918-19. After a third wave ripped through, the flu essentially disappeared as a distinct medical phenomenon, and faded into the background as just one of the viruses people got routinely. We can’t know when this will happen - but my call is by next spring.
In any event, I am boosted by the knowledge that any ‘rule’ based on posts from Sean/Leon won’t be based on very much thought let alone real analysis. And that he’ll be saying something entirely different the moment there’s a sniff that the wind has changed.
Not sure the rhetoric is matching up with the measures.
(I am not keen on lockdowns, as I've made clear before)
“More and more people are seeing through the emperor’s new clothes, and once you’ve seen that you can’t un-see it.”
My report from Westminster and North Shropshire: https://www.politico.eu/article/boris-johnson-christmas-party-investigation-uk-covid/
* It's what you simultaneously both want and don't want...
Then I go back to the Lake District to decorate trees, put up the crib etc and generally prepare for the family.
One ex-minister said the premiership is Johnson’s “for as long as there is no alternative” but warned: “If we lose North Shropshire and a stalking horse [leadership challenger] emerges that may shake the kaleidoscope.”
If this is so super infectious as suggested then zero Covid is so impossible now its not funny. Its just going to spread either way so just live your life and move on.
Is this the same treatment being used in UK and is it being distributed to GPs or pharmacists?
Covid cases 17th May 2,220 (7 day average). Then after we made changes a big spike and the pogoing highs and lows around the new baseline.
Peak 47,114 (21/07), trough 25,722 (02/08), peak 38,459 (09/09), trough 28.928 (17/09), peak 47,209 (23/10), trough 33,477 (10/11), peak 51,176 (13/12).
When you say "we did see them fall" it was to 25,722, a mere 11.5x higher than the start. And then up and up and up.
*the* family?!
Its shutdown we should be worried about. Forget telling pubs etc to close, their staff will be ill and they'll be shut. If its as bad as the powers that be say. Or not if its not.
As for the SNP voting on them, it does depend of course, yes, if there are regulations relevant to the UK as a whole, as always.
Aaron Bell (Con), another member of the science committee, says Dr Angelique Coetzee, chair of the South African Medical Association, told the committee this morning that the measures being introduced by the government were proportionate. He says that is not what her article in the Daily Mail today implied.
Here’s wot I said
“PB PLAGUE PREDICTIONS BINGO
The world is teetering on the abyss. This could all blow over in a week and we go back to worrying about Boris's bald patch OR human civilisation will be snuffed out like a candle at Christingle, probably around Christingle
In that light, what do we predict? I'll go first
Lockdown: YES
Lockdown when: introduced incrementally, but fast. Plan C from about mid December, Plan Z (a harsh lockdown) from around Jan 1
Lockdown how long: not long. It won't do much. 3-4 weeks
UK hospitalisations between now and end March 2022: 310,000
UK deaths in the same period: 49,000”
Someone's generating big headlines
Probably 3 million frozen peas bought from the Coop, too.
So we had:
Summer with a football tournament -> Done
Summer with schools out -> Done
Autumn with schools in -> Done
Winter with schools in and pre-Christmas interactions -> Worst for cases -> High but not accelerating
Delta was almost done. Come spring it would have dropped to a low background level.
Unfortunately, someone sent us Omicron, so the winter wave will just be shorter. Whether it will be too short for the NHS, we still don't know.
I can't see how this makes any difference versus super infectious Omicron. Three households together is a lot of people, and Christmas is a free for all.
I do love the notion that you and yours will carry on as normal as the rest of the economy collapses as you "let it rip"
Again, read what I have actually written not what you wish I had written.
1) "We are doomed"
2) Useless guidance
3) Blame UK Gov for lack of funding for further restrictions
4) People die, "Tories killed your gran"
5) Indyref2
Bonus: No bothersome private sector left
Are you so naive and so unwilling to be realistic now that you can't tell the difference between transmission with schools closed and transmission with schools open now?
16 July 47,970.4
13 September 28,540.4
So the 7 day average halved until the schools went back, that's one wave.
You seem to be in utter denial. First you want us to exit the virus, then you want cases to fall below what they were when we were in lockdown. You just clearly haven't grasped the severity of reality have you?
You're getting irate at others because you're in complete denial.
If thats done I'd hate to see not done.
Like this one
https://images.app.goo.gl/i8qzCCfkG7ceUhov9
The family is mine.
The idea COVID-19 spells the end times is nonsense.
And that's perfect we cover the plague that carried off Pericles, or bedevilled Rome during the reign of Gallienus in the 3rd century, or the repeated pestilences that whittled down Constantinople's population dramatically.
If Boris had announced this he would be getting crucified every which way.
Oh right, you're in denial and think we should have zero cases don't you? 🤦♂️
Early data out of SAMRC shows Omicron causes milder symptoms (with recovery within 3 days), two doses of Pfizer ARE effective against hospitalization, AND data indicates that the severity of Omicron is 29% LOWER than D614G (first) wave of COVID-19 infections in South Africa.
https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1470738170606145539?s=20
That’s enough to totally fuck the economy. To stop everything. All work. No?
Unless you get wartime recruitment of the well-enough-old, young and recovered to staff shops and drive buses and the like, and what if they then get Delta to go down with it again? There are rumours you can get both.
How does a society function with this level of illness?
AND WHO WILL DIG THE PLAGUE PITS?
Going on the system would ruin what they're doing or some such.
You said "We did see them fall. Because in the first phase schools were closed, in the second the schools were reopened." Yes. And then they went up again. And up some more. And some more.
We replaced the 2k cases a day with mask restrictions with a very best 28k a day and then up and up. If an ever-increasing number of cases is us exiting having cases then black truly is white.
Do keep it up, you're as funny as HYUFD foaming on about Toryism.
As I pointed out above, no kaleidoscopes have ever been involved.
Not Steve Baker, for example...
We have little idea either way for now.
I think our government is overreacting massively, but in much of Europe which has done the policies @RochdalePioneers has been cheering on . . . I worry for them.
Thank goodness we have the immunity we do. We'll need it.
The problem being that their model sadly proved to be wrong as we saw an 11x uplift and then further rises sadly without the fall.
I will take your observations on morons with a giggle.
🏴 418,544
🏴 45,601
🏴 26,676
NI 22,901
Are these numbers actually from yesterday, or are we still in an era where there is a reporting delay for jabs? Because if it was yesterday, with supposed queues round the block, we are never going to do 1.x million a day, every day.
You are utterly delusional. Had we not had the exit wave we would have seen exponential growth with schools open, no restrictions and winter. To keep levels flat, while circumstances are getting worse, is proof that the wave has happened.
https://twitter.com/Ryanair/status/1470347823933755392