The betting movement seems rather odd. Hmm. OTOH, generally, if someone is sitting on a poll, the odds tend to suddenly shift. This has been more gradual.
Intriguing.
What has happened in the betting
Since this morning, con’s chances have improved from ~36% to ~50%. LDs fallen from ~63% to ~49%. In betting terms, that’s a big move.
My legendary modesty klaxon prevents me from mentioning this comment from last Thursday.
18 months. What do we think? I'm not sure why the driver wasn't prosecuted for attempted murder.
They don't like prosecuting drivers for that sort of general offence. This was Causing Serious Injury by Dangerous Driving, which has a max sentence of 5 years.
I'd say that 3-3.5 years would be more like it for the physical and psychological injuries caused and the behaviour displayed, and that "moment of madness" is a crappy defence when calmness and focus is the most important factor for anyone driving any car on a public road. The initial collision was caused by a third party obstructing the cyclist.
Quite ironic that he is bang to rights due to his own dashcam.
I'm not sure if GBH level harm (which is how it is defined) is enough to come under the Unduly Lenient Sentencing review scheme, but someone may refer it. But the list of offences for that is tilted towards the sexual.
I'm not sure what the legal distinction is between careless driving and dangerous driving, but it implies that the injury caused to the cyclist was an unintentional byproduct of the driving (as in the example you cite). It seems clear that with the case I linked to that there was an intent to cause injury to the cyclist, and it must have been clear that it would have been serious injury. His reaction after committing the offence, and pursuing the cyclist after the original incident are also aggravating factors.
I don't know whether these offences were created because there was a reluctance from juries to convict drivers for manslaughter, etc, because, I suppose, many jury members might think that they could easily be in the dock if they made a mistake.
As a cyclist I don't feel like the law is protecting me. I'm fair game.
If you did raise it as an ULS it would be interesting to know what came of it. I'm wondering whether I should write to the CPS about it.
For what it is worth and based on nothing more than guessing at BJ's character I think he will resign next year if some sort of face saving reason can be concocted.
Sitting in a starlit Balearic garden, looking at my very own Antony Gormley statue. Sipping excellent wine, as frogs croak in the fountains. Global meltdown seems a long way away
And yet
Why do you want a statute of Anthony gormley in your garden?
And how large is it? Is it sort of a Gormley Gnome?
For what it is worth and based on nothing more than guessing at BJ's character I think he will resign next year if some sort of face saving reason can be concocted.
Sitting in a starlit Balearic garden, looking at my very own Antony Gormley statue. Sipping excellent wine, as frogs croak in the fountains. Global meltdown seems a long way away
And yet
Why do you want a statute of Anthony gormley in your garden?
And how large is it? Is it sort of a Gormley Gnome?
Gormley is one of those horrifically overrated artists. The planet is full of them. Absolute shite. Future generations will point and laugh.
The Lib Dem leader, whose name nobody knows, will not be making his considerable presence felt in the Commons after testing positive.
Who do you think Sir Ed should have a celebrity affair with to raise his profile and get people to remember his name, Farooq? Madonna would be a coup for Lib Dems if a tabloid gets pics of them canoodling on a wine bar terrace you would agree. Though we may have to settle for Rebel Wilson.
Been done before. That LD MP. Nesbit? Lembit? Can't remember his name but he had a singer type lady friend which got him lots of photos in the papers.
I have to say in two years "exit the virus" is surely up there among the most stupid things said about it. That there's anyone who believes that is worrying and the government Comms needs to be updated to warn everyone that we're all going to get it and the best way to decrease likelihood of symptoms is to get vaccinated. There is no other game in town.
I agree! So why do you keep saying we had an exit wave?
Because we did? Immunity and vaccine coverage in the UK is the highest in the world. Despite all of the doom rhetoric from the scientists we're not in any lockdown while most of Europe has got severe restrictions on going anywhere. Omicron may change the game, it may not. But in the summer to now 11-13m people got the virus, 70-80% of them unvaccinated by choice. Would you rather they had zero immunity heading into the Omicron wave?
Don't take my word for it Chris Whitty said it in June. It was and remains the right strategy, everyone is going ti get COVID. Lockdowns and NPIs displace infections, but now the vaccine cavalry is already here, last winter it wasn't so displacement of 1000 infections was ~9.5 lives saved. Today displacement of infections will save close to zero lives, anyone who wants to be can get vaccinated. I walked into a pharmacy with my wife yesterday and we both got our boosters.
Again and again, the only game in town is vaccines. Lockdowns will do nothing because the moment we unlock the virus will be back. Infecting all those same idiots who refused the vaccine. Lockdown to save people who refused the vaccine is immoral, better to tell them to die at home.
The reality is that those who are calling for lockdowns are looking for a legislative safety blanket where none exists.
It has been my view throughout that it is not the role of the state to protect people from a virus. Measures to fundamentally restrict the liberties of e.g. children to 'protect' the very elderly and vulnerable are not IMO morally justified at the current CFR. Excessive safetyism is not a road I want the state to go down.
I am very proud to see so many Tory 'rebel' MPs standing up for liberty today. I would vote exactly the same way.
So I read, I am a foaming lockdown forever advocate. And yet I said days ago I would also vote against. We need measures to sustain businesses who get screwed by the shutdown being caused by Omicron running rampant. Not half-measures and excuses.
We need to see MPs back reviewing the latest data and proposals as they come out - instead Javid is proposing another enabling act where Peppa will rule by decree through the Christmas recess.
Unacceptable.
Or let those of us who want to continue as is, continue.
I'm in my early 30s. As are most of my mates. All of us just want to crack on.
Could you make it any more obvious you think you're invulnerable and you couldn't give a damn about anyone else?
@Chris, I'm in my late 20s so liable to piss you off even more than Mortimer.
The disease appears to be even less dangerous to us than it was before. We've got vaxxed even when it was probably not in our personal interest to do so.
Uni/college students and school pupils have missed out on the education that we all got. And people my age haven't travelled, met partners etc for nearly two years.
Do you give a damn about anyone else?
Not about people who are so self-obsessed that they're willing to put a higher priority on travel, "meeting partners" and respecting their anti-vaccine fantasies than on giving a toss whether other people die or not.
It's not that I think I'm particularly at risk myself. I don't have any particular risk factors and I've had a booster. It's just that people like you turn my stomach with your grotesque selfishness.
Ummm, other than @rural_voter, who has "anti-vaccine fantasies" on here?
The bloke I was replying to, in the post I was replying to, when he said "even when it was probably not in our personal interest to do so [get vaccinated, even though he was in his 20s]".
Recommendation: Don't spout crap, unless you can be bothered to read what you're spouting about (or unless this site is now an anti-vaccination propaganda outlet).
Don't spout crap
Would you like to me to compare your forecasts for Covid cases in the UK with mine? And then we can talk about who has been talking crap.
What? You don't think someone saying it wasn't in their interest to get vaccinated because they were in their 20s is anti-vaccine drivel? Astonishing.
As for forecasts, I've made none. I've occasionally pointed out what would obviously happen under certain assumptions, which anyone numerate had the ability to check.
If you fancy yourself Nostradamus, that particular delusion is not my problem.
Um, what @Endillion said, admittedly after this but the info was available to you all the time. Are the JCVI anti vaccine fantasists? How embarrassing is it, 1-10, being you?
Of course the JVCI has never said vaccination represented a higher risk than non-vaccination to those in their 20s, even viewed from the purely selfish perspective.
Unbelievable that people are still pushing the anti-vaccine crap, even in the situation we're in now. Even more unbelievable that it's actually being supported by RCS.
Nobody is pushing an anti-vaccine argument, you numptoid wazzock. That is just not a thing which has happened. you are tilting at windmills, you are going into paroxysms over the safety of people who are a lot less obsessed with it than you are, and you think "meeting partners" is such an outlandish aspiration it needs putting in scare quotes. Odd person.
Sort of betting he has a comfortable home with plenty of space and lives with his partner and family. Not someone who lives alone in a cramped flat and hasnt been able to go find a date in two years almost or someone like me who hasn't seen their girlfriend in two years as she is afraid to return from australia where her children live because she might not be easily able to return. Typical "lockdown works for me" type.
Of course we could all fantasise about the private lives of people we know nothing about - probably with results equally inaccurate, though as far as inaccuracy goes, that was pretty spectacular.
Though really you must realise your hyperbolic fantasies have little enough to do with vaccination risk, and do little enough to justify anti-vaccine propaganda.
WTF are you talking about....I am fully vaxxed and get my booster on friday just fed up with cunts like you wanting total lock down because its "Fine for you" when many of us havent seen loved ones in almost two years fuck off you fucking twat. You showed your I am alright jack tendencies with your quoted bit about meeting people. I refuse point blank your lockdowns and restrictions and have absolutely no intention to be governed by your paranoia
The Lib Dem leader, whose name nobody knows, will not be making his considerable presence felt in the Commons after testing positive.
Who do you think Sir Ed should have a celebrity affair with to raise his profile and get people to remember his name, Farooq? Madonna would be a coup for Lib Dems if a tabloid gets pics of them canoodling on a wine bar terrace you would agree. Though we may have to settle for Rebel Wilson.
Been done before. That LD MP. Nesbit? Lembit? Can't remember his name but he had a singer type lady friend which got him lots of photos in the papers.
They were twins
Liam Fox did rather better with his chanteuse
She denies it was anything like Fox tacitly bigs it up to be.
Comments
I don't know whether these offences were created because there was a reluctance from juries to convict drivers for manslaughter, etc, because, I suppose, many jury members might think that they could easily be in the dock if they made a mistake.
As a cyclist I don't feel like the law is protecting me. I'm fair game.
If you did raise it as an ULS it would be interesting to know what came of it. I'm wondering whether I should write to the CPS about it.
And how large is it? Is it sort of a Gormley Gnome?
Liam Fox did rather better with his chanteuse