Sajid Javid says vaccine passport will not be valid unless people have had two jabs and a booster, rather than just two jabs, "once all adults have had a reasonable chance to get their booster jab. https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1470433280348639235?s=20
Suggests the government will expand vaxports to cinemas, restaurants, theatres, pubs etc from January if needed to get more getting their boosters
Good, about time. Those that selfishly decide it is too much risk for them to have a needle in their arm can stay at home.
It is tedious but apparently necessary to remind you that more died in the experimental group than the control group, at a time when I think the COVID strain was Alpha.
Normal medical ethics requires risk-benefit comparisons for the patients treated. Otherwise one risks killing more than one saves. Are you suggesting doing that?
This may suggest that what critics predicted in spring 2021 is happening, i.e. new variants are arising in the vaccinated ( aka vaccine-resistant viruses, cf antibiotic-resistant bacteria).
If it's confirmed that Omicron has an IFR 20x lower than Delta, or 0.004%, it's no longer COVID; it's already mutated into a common cold coronavirus. Anyone who can't cope with a severe cold should be in a care home. Or, if younger, they should get help strengthening their immune system.
And if it's confirmed the Moon is made of cheese it will be enough to feed the world's population for millennia.
Er, best not mention the moon, or we might start to hear about how the Americans faked the landings!
14% supporting Green or Reform is a new development in British politics.
I recall the Greens getting 15% in a Euro election in the 80's. Think it was my only vote for them.
The LDs collapsed around that time and most of their vote went to the Greens almost by default.
There was that time in New Labour years, IIRC, where the Greens did well in some locals and the Euros. Then the hard-core command economy stuff they were expounding got noticed and it collapsed back.
It seems what Javid was saying was the current estimated number of daily infections are around 200,000 of all variants. 20% of which are Omicron.
Hospitalisations and deaths are expected to "dramatically increase" in the next few weeks and the NHS will return to its highest level of emergency preparedness, he adds.
If it does hit a million a day new cases, the vaccines better hold...otherwise we will be having bodies piling up in the streets.
Does the 200k for new daily cases include an estimated upwards adjustment for all the people who catch it and either don't know or don't tell?
I am going to tell you that last week I had a horrible sore throat and felt wonky. Pretty much the same as I felt when I had coronavirus. I thought oh sh&t how can this be to have it again. I LFTed and negative and it passed after a couple of days.
Not impossible it was omicron (I am as it stands 2x jabbed and 1x infected).
This is sort of what I'm getting at. Say we have X new cases today per 'official' test results. This surely means X plus a lot for 'actual' new infections - because many people won't do a test (eg if it's mild or they feel nothing) and many more, if they test at home and it's positive, won't tell the authorities, they'll just hunker down till they get better. So I was just wondering if the case numbers we hear announced by the Saj, or whoever, include an estimated upwards weighting for this.
Just turned down the whole menu here other than the vegetable soup because it’s all rank - how’s your evening going?
I was expecting something big soup-esque but it isn’t that
Possibly the worst of my hopsital food during my 5 week stay in 2012 was the minestrone soup. It was spo bad it looked like they had taken a few used bowls, dumped them in the washing up bowl and then scooped out a portion to serve me. A few lumps were present, a bit of pasta and a watery brown liquid. Ghastly. Add in the cheapest nastiest white bread known to man and that was my 'supper' one night. My taste buds were screwed for some of the time, but by the end were fine. Most of the food was terrible.
Sajid Javid says vaccine passport will not be valid unless people have had two jabs and a booster, rather than just two jabs, "once all adults have had a reasonable chance to get their booster jab. https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1470433280348639235?s=20
Suggests the government will expand vaxports to cinemas, restaurants, theatres, pubs etc from January if needed to get more getting their boosters
Good, about time. Those that selfishly decide it is too much risk for them to have a needle in their arm can stay at home.
It is tedious but apparently necessary to remind you that more died in the experimental group than the control group, at a time when I think the COVID strain was Alpha.
Normal medical ethics requires risk-benefit comparisons for the patients treated. Otherwise one risks killing more than one saves. Are you suggesting doing that?
This may suggest that what critics predicted in spring 2021 is happening, i.e. new variants are arising in the vaccinated ( aka vaccine-resistant viruses, cf antibiotic-resistant bacteria).
If it's confirmed that Omicron has an IFR 20x lower than Delta, or 0.004%, it's no longer COVID; it's already mutated into a common cold coronavirus. Anyone who can't cope with a severe cold should be in a care home. Or, if younger, they should get help strengthening their immune system.
And if it's confirmed the Moon is made of cheese it will be enough to feed the world's population for millennia.
Apart the lactose intolerant ones of course...
The lactose content of most hard and aged cheese is low enough for many lactose-intolerant people to eat them. However the moon is actually made of green, ie fresh, cheese so it is not suitable.
A little chink of light for all you SAD sufferers out there in PB land. Whilst there is still a week to go to the Winter Solstice, today marked the earliest sunset of the year. Very slowly the evenings will start to lighten from this point forward.
Personally I like the cold, dark winter months best so see no cause for celebration but one has to be magnanimous about these things.
I see Rochdale and Francis are back to their favourite pastime of predicting a cancellation of Christmas. We just need AveIt Londonpubman to complete the set.
Does anyone think there is a realistic possibility that the government will lockdown over Christmas? This seems to be a PB only thing.
They will wait until 3rd Jan.
I did project 3 Jan on this thread several days ago...
...along with 3 Dec, 3 Nov, 3 Oct, 3 Sep and a lockdown every month since before the dawn of time.
Not sure I have said too many of those. But always touched by your interest in my posts! ❤️
Might it be worth having a PB competition: what will be the maximum number of booster jabs reported for the U.K. on any day up to and including December 31st? Nearest estimate wins.
854,217.
Definitely higher.
1,248,510
OK two entries makes it a competition, I will record entries until noon tomorrow and then declare on January 1st who was closest and award an appropriate prize.
NB. If @RochdalePioneers enters and is closest as at December 30th, I reserve the right to override the competition rules and award the prize to the second nearest guess.
Just turned down the whole menu here other than the vegetable soup because it’s all rank - how’s your evening going?
I was expecting something big soup-esque but it isn’t that
Got the op then?
I would recommend claiming a special diet, in Leicester these are often catered out by local restaurants. The Indian veg here is quite tolerable, but ignore the rest of the menu.
It seems what Javid was saying was the current estimated number of daily infections are around 200,000 of all variants. 20% of which are Omicron.
Hospitalisations and deaths are expected to "dramatically increase" in the next few weeks and the NHS will return to its highest level of emergency preparedness, he adds.
If it does hit a million a day new cases, the vaccines better hold...otherwise we will be having bodies piling up in the streets.
Does the 200k for new daily cases include an estimated upwards adjustment for all the people who catch it and either don't know or don't tell?
I am going to tell you that last week I had a horrible sore throat and felt wonky. Pretty much the same as I felt when I had coronavirus. I thought oh sh&t how can this be to have it again. I LFTed and negative and it passed after a couple of days.
Not impossible it was omicron (I am as it stands 2x jabbed and 1x infected).
This is sort of what I'm getting at. Say we have X new cases today per 'official' test results. This surely means X plus a lot for 'actual' new infections - because many people won't do a test (eg if it's mild or they feel nothing) and many more, if they test at home and it's positive, won't tell the authorities, they'll just hunker down till they get better. So I was just wondering if the case numbers we hear announced by the Saj, or whoever, include an estimated upwards weighting for this.
I had a sore throat and headache friday and a bit of saturday. LFT negative so went about my business. I recieved my booster about three weeks ago. From @dixiedean's anecdote I wonder if I tested too early. Feel totally fine since Saturday night.
The Saj admits not everyone can get there booster by the end of December.
I got onto the site shortly after midday - first attempt, earliest available slot was 30 December, but it logged me out before I could book - second attempt, I found one slot on 29 December. It seems likely that, by now, that particular pharmacist already has no slots available until 2022.
Is this an opportunity for Boris Johnson to yet again free Britain from the clutches Euro-tyranny, by repealing the Calendar (New Style) Act 1750, which the superseded good, old Julian calendar (which Caesar no doubt stole from some learned druid) with the REAL "Popish Plot" the Gregorian calendar.
Which back then robbed the British people of 11 days. By the Year of Our Lord 2021 the gap has no doubt expanded.
SO by repealing the Gregorian Calendar and restoring even more freedom for even more freedom loving Britons, the Prime Minister will also give HMG precious extra weeks, maybe months, to achieve his promise to Boost Britain . . . in a good way.
On my anecdote, walk in vaccination is a game changer for booster doses. The pharmacist was having a chat with us while we waited for our 15 mins to be up and she said it's the first day when all of their allocation has been used, ever. Even in the height of the first and second dose rollout she had leftovers.
Sajid Javid says vaccine passport will not be valid unless people have had two jabs and a booster, rather than just two jabs, "once all adults have had a reasonable chance to get their booster jab. https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1470433280348639235?s=20
Suggests the government will expand vaxports to cinemas, restaurants, theatres, pubs etc from January if needed to get more getting their boosters
Good, about time. Those that selfishly decide it is too much risk for them to have a needle in their arm can stay at home.
It is tedious but apparently necessary to remind you that more died in the experimental group than the control group, at a time when I think the COVID strain was Alpha.
Normal medical ethics requires risk-benefit comparisons for the patients treated. Otherwise one risks killing more than one saves. Are you suggesting doing that?
This may suggest that what critics predicted in spring 2021 is happening, i.e. new variants are arising in the vaccinated ( aka vaccine-resistant viruses, cf antibiotic-resistant bacteria).
If it's confirmed that Omicron has an IFR 20x lower than Delta, or 0.004%, it's no longer COVID; it's already mutated into a common cold coronavirus. Anyone who can't cope with a severe cold should be in a care home. Or, if younger, they should get help strengthening their immune system.
And if it's confirmed the Moon is made of cheese it will be enough to feed the world's population for millennia.
Apart the lactose intolerant ones of course...
The lactose content of most hard and aged cheese is low enough for many lactose-intolerant people to eat them. However the moon is actually made of green, ie fresh, cheese so it is not suitable.
I thought the moon was millions of year old? The Silurians specifically went into hibernation to avoid its arrival?
Starmer has a 27% lead on favourables over Boris Johnson with Survation.
For fans of gross positives Starmer leads Johnson by 7%.
Interesting to see Starmer have a 7% point lead. I don't know anyone who's got a good word to say about Boris at the minute though.
It will be interesting to see if these numbers continue for the next couple of years, or if its as transient as Hague's Tories overtaking Blair's Labour in the fuel protests.
I think HYUFD is still loyal. What happened to you though? You were PB's No1 Johnson Fanboy until a few days ago before the wind changed. Apparently you still think he is one of the *best* PMs, but now paradoxically think he should be ousted? Why do you want to oust someone that you think is good?
I am always loyal. I was out campaigning and voting for William Hague in 2001 when PT voted for Blair.
I also even voted for May's Tories in the 2019 European elections when PT voted for Farage's Brexit party
And you'll be campaigning for The Truss next time around, no doubt.
If The Truss became PM and led a campaign to abolish the monarchy then our HYUFD would call monarchists who left the Tories "traitors".
If Truss became PM and campaigned to abolish the monarchy I would vote RefUK or even LD (Davey is a constitutional monarchist) as it would cease to be the Tory party.
Hover even if she became PM I can't believe she would be that stupid
I thought a week or so ago you were saying you would never support Truss but now you have added an extra (very risk-free) caveat to your decalration.
Have I got that right?
I prefer Sunak if Boris went but provided she kept quiet on her past republicanism I could tolerate her
You'd prefer Hunt to either of those, though, am I right?
I would. The most competent high profile Tory at the moment, which is why the swivel-eyed twats that have taken over the Tory Party will block him.
Yes, I think Sunak is the best you can hope for, and cross your fingers it's not Truss. The latter being a case of the torch being passed from airhead major to airhead minor.
But I reckon Johnson will survive and lead into the next election. Sorry, Nigel.
Might it be worth having a PB competition: what will be the maximum number of booster jabs reported for the U.K. on any day up to and including December 31st? Nearest estimate wins.
854,217.
Definitely higher.
1,248,510
OK two entries makes it a competition, I will record entries until noon tomorrow and then declare on January 1st who was closest and award an appropriate prize.
NB. If @RochdalePioneers enters and is closest as at December 30th, I reserve the right to override the competition rules and award the prize to the second nearest guess.
I see Rochdale and Francis are back to their favourite pastime of predicting a cancellation of Christmas. We just need AveIt Londonpubman to complete the set.
Does anyone think there is a realistic possibility that the government will lockdown over Christmas? This seems to be a PB only thing.
We honestly don't know, do we? There are as many opinions on Omicron as there are scientists.
Clearly Johnson doesn't want to be the Grinch who stole Christmas and will do almost anything to avoid that. But if the worst predictions are true and the numbers are looking stratospheric this time next week, yes, I wouldn't bet against a last-minute lockdown.
Might it be worth having a PB competition: what will be the maximum number of booster jabs reported for the U.K. on any day up to and including December 31st? Nearest estimate wins.
854,217.
Definitely higher.
1,248,510
OK two entries makes it a competition, I will record entries until noon tomorrow and then declare on January 1st who was closest and award an appropriate prize.
NB. If @RochdalePioneers enters and is closest as at December 30th, I reserve the right to override the competition rules and award the prize to the second nearest guess.
Just turned down the whole menu here other than the vegetable soup because it’s all rank - how’s your evening going?
I was expecting something big soup-esque but it isn’t that
Possibly the worst of my hopsital food during my 5 week stay in 2012 was the minestrone soup. It was spo bad it looked like they had taken a few used bowls, dumped them in the washing up bowl and then scooped out a portion to serve me. A few lumps were present, a bit of pasta and a watery brown liquid. Ghastly. Add in the cheapest nastiest white bread known to man and that was my 'supper' one night. My taste buds were screwed for some of the time, but by the end were fine. Most of the food was terrible.
Hospital stays are a guaranteed way of losing weight.
BTW - I am still alive after the Moderna booster so that is 2AZ + M = Immunity
Don't forget 10-15 days before booster kicks in. Then something like 75% efficacy.
Isn't the 75% cumulative with your previous vaccines? So if your previous jabs give you, say 92% immunity, after the booster 75% of the gap to 100% is closed, putting you at 92% + (75% times 8%) = 98%.
They reckon seven days for the effective buildup of antibodies and five for incubation, so tested at 12 days. So by 7 days your immune system should be buzzing and, as I imagine it doesn't all happen suddenly on day 7, I would guess you would have had a significant buildup in immunity by say day 5.
BTW - I am still alive after the Moderna booster so that is 2AZ + M = Immunity
Don't forget 10-15 days before booster kicks in. Then something like 75% efficacy.
Isn't the 75% cumulative with your previous vaccines? So if your previous jabs give you, say 92% immunity, after the booster 75% of the gap to 100% is closed, putting you at 92% + (75% times 8%) = 98%.
Among those who had received two doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine, a Pfizer-BioNTech booster increased vaccine effectiveness against the omicron variant to 71.4% two weeks after it was received — that figure was 75.5% for people whose primary doses were the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, according to the study.
14% supporting Green or Reform is a new development in British politics.
I recall the Greens getting 15% in a Euro election in the 80's. Think it was my only vote for them.
The direct result of that vote was the Major government panicking, saying "s—t, we must be seen to do something about the environment", and – in true Cones Hotline tradition – deciding that what the world really needed was another quango.
That was the unloved Environment Agency, which is still with us today. Sclerotic and too big to manage effectively, it subsumed several earlier bodies including the National Rivers Authority, which had been doing a generally good job. The NRA's chairman, Lord Crickhowell, wrote an autobiography which was scathing about the whole episode.
Just turned down the whole menu here other than the vegetable soup because it’s all rank - how’s your evening going?
I was expecting something big soup-esque but it isn’t that
Possibly the worst of my hopsital food during my 5 week stay in 2012 was the minestrone soup. It was spo bad it looked like they had taken a few used bowls, dumped them in the washing up bowl and then scooped out a portion to serve me. A few lumps were present, a bit of pasta and a watery brown liquid. Ghastly. Add in the cheapest nastiest white bread known to man and that was my 'supper' one night. My taste buds were screwed for some of the time, but by the end were fine. Most of the food was terrible.
Hospital stays are a guaranteed way of losing weight.
Worked for me. Combo of chemotherapy, the shits, and the truly awful food led me to shed around three stone in five weeks. It all came back when I had access to real food again. But it was about the only 'nice' thing about having leukeamia - for a week or two I was at a weight with a BMI near the healthy mark...
They reckon seven days for the effective buildup of antibodies and five for incubation, so tested at 12 days. So by 7 days your immune system should be buzzing and, as I imagine it doesn't all happen suddenly on day 7, I would guess you would have had a significant buildup in immunity by say day 5.
Its all dependent, age etc etc etc. The UK picked 2 weeks to test when studying the effects. 7 days is more than likely be plenty.
BTW - I am still alive after the Moderna booster so that is 2AZ + M = Immunity
Don't forget 10-15 days before booster kicks in. Then something like 75% efficacy.
Isn't the 75% cumulative with your previous vaccines? So if your previous jabs give you, say 92% immunity, after the booster 75% of the gap to 100% is closed, putting you at 92% + (75% times 8%) = 98%.
No its a new measurement/estimate against non-vaccinated folk vs omicron.
It seems what Javid was saying was the current estimated number of daily infections are around 200,000 of all variants. 20% of which are Omicron.
Hospitalisations and deaths are expected to "dramatically increase" in the next few weeks and the NHS will return to its highest level of emergency preparedness, he adds.
If it does hit a million a day new cases, the vaccines better hold...otherwise we will be having bodies piling up in the streets.
Does the 200k for new daily cases include an estimated upwards adjustment for all the people who catch it and either don't know or don't tell?
I am going to tell you that last week I had a horrible sore throat and felt wonky. Pretty much the same as I felt when I had coronavirus. I thought oh sh&t how can this be to have it again. I LFTed and negative and it passed after a couple of days.
Not impossible it was omicron (I am as it stands 2x jabbed and 1x infected).
This is sort of what I'm getting at. Say we have X new cases today per 'official' test results. This surely means X plus a lot for 'actual' new infections - because many people won't do a test (eg if it's mild or they feel nothing) and many more, if they test at home and it's positive, won't tell the authorities, they'll just hunker down till they get better. So I was just wondering if the case numbers we hear announced by the Saj, or whoever, include an estimated upwards weighting for this.
I had a sore throat and headache friday and a bit of saturday. LFT negative so went about my business. I recieved my booster about three weeks ago. From @dixiedean's anecdote I wonder if I tested too early. Feel totally fine since Saturday night.
That's you and Topping with the same. One boostered one already had it. I had neither. It is just possible both of you had omicron and the LFT just isn't great at picking it up.
Sajid Javid says vaccine passport will not be valid unless people have had two jabs and a booster, rather than just two jabs, "once all adults have had a reasonable chance to get their booster jab. https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1470433280348639235?s=20
Suggests the government will expand vaxports to cinemas, restaurants, theatres, pubs etc from January if needed to get more getting their boosters
Good, about time. Those that selfishly decide it is too much risk for them to have a needle in their arm can stay at home.
It is tedious but apparently necessary to remind you that more died in the experimental group than the control group, at a time when I think the COVID strain was Alpha.
Normal medical ethics requires risk-benefit comparisons for the patients treated. Otherwise one risks killing more than one saves. Are you suggesting doing that?
This may suggest that what critics predicted in spring 2021 is happening, i.e. new variants are arising in the vaccinated ( aka vaccine-resistant viruses, cf antibiotic-resistant bacteria).
If it's confirmed that Omicron has an IFR 20x lower than Delta, or 0.004%, it's no longer COVID; it's already mutated into a common cold coronavirus. Anyone who can't cope with a severe cold should be in a care home. Or, if younger, they should get help strengthening their immune system.
And if it's confirmed the Moon is made of cheese it will be enough to feed the world's population for millennia.
Apart the lactose intolerant ones of course...
The lactose content of most hard and aged cheese is low enough for many lactose-intolerant people to eat them. However the moon is actually made of green, ie fresh, cheese so it is not suitable.
I thought the moon was millions of year old? The Silurians specifically went into hibernation to avoid its arrival?
Attention is going to turn now to Omicron, Christmas, how Covid affects us in the New Year.
If the UK avoids a January lockdown then the PM will deserve credit and will be given space by his MPs. If the UK goes into lockdown then that will burn bridges with even more MPs and I expect the letters will finally go in.
It seems what Javid was saying was the current estimated number of daily infections are around 200,000 of all variants. 20% of which are Omicron.
Hospitalisations and deaths are expected to "dramatically increase" in the next few weeks and the NHS will return to its highest level of emergency preparedness, he adds.
If it does hit a million a day new cases, the vaccines better hold...otherwise we will be having bodies piling up in the streets.
Does the 200k for new daily cases include an estimated upwards adjustment for all the people who catch it and either don't know or don't tell?
I am going to tell you that last week I had a horrible sore throat and felt wonky. Pretty much the same as I felt when I had coronavirus. I thought oh sh&t how can this be to have it again. I LFTed and negative and it passed after a couple of days.
Not impossible it was omicron (I am as it stands 2x jabbed and 1x infected).
This is sort of what I'm getting at. Say we have X new cases today per 'official' test results. This surely means X plus a lot for 'actual' new infections - because many people won't do a test (eg if it's mild or they feel nothing) and many more, if they test at home and it's positive, won't tell the authorities, they'll just hunker down till they get better. So I was just wondering if the case numbers we hear announced by the Saj, or whoever, include an estimated upwards weighting for this.
I had a sore throat and headache friday and a bit of saturday. LFT negative so went about my business. I recieved my booster about three weeks ago. From @dixiedean's anecdote I wonder if I tested too early. Feel totally fine since Saturday night.
That's you and Topping with the same. One boostered one already had it. I had neither. It is just possible both of you had omicron and the LFT just isn't great at picking it up.
Yes, it’s definitely possible. Another colleague had Covid in his household, and did several LFT. On one, there was the faintest of positive lines, a few hours later it had gone. I suspect many of us will encounter omicron, fight it off (thanks vaccines) and never know. I could of course have just had another bug.
France did 800,000 boosters on Friday. In the last week they've averaged 600,000 a day. For the second time running, the UK has squandered its early advantage.
Sajid Javid says vaccine passport will not be valid unless people have had two jabs and a booster, rather than just two jabs, "once all adults have had a reasonable chance to get their booster jab. https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1470433280348639235?s=20
Suggests the government will expand vaxports to cinemas, restaurants, theatres, pubs etc from January if needed to get more getting their boosters
Good, about time. Those that selfishly decide it is too much risk for them to have a needle in their arm can stay at home.
It is tedious but apparently necessary to remind you that more died in the experimental group than the control group, at a time when I think the COVID strain was Alpha.
Normal medical ethics requires risk-benefit comparisons for the patients treated. Otherwise one risks killing more than one saves. Are you suggesting doing that?
This may suggest that what critics predicted in spring 2021 is happening, i.e. new variants are arising in the vaccinated ( aka vaccine-resistant viruses, cf antibiotic-resistant bacteria).
If it's confirmed that Omicron has an IFR 20x lower than Delta, or 0.004%, it's no longer COVID; it's already mutated into a common cold coronavirus. Anyone who can't cope with a severe cold should be in a care home. Or, if younger, they should get help strengthening their immune system.
And if it's confirmed the Moon is made of cheese it will be enough to feed the world's population for millennia.
Apart the lactose intolerant ones of course...
The lactose content of most hard and aged cheese is low enough for many lactose-intolerant people to eat them. However the moon is actually made of green, ie fresh, cheese so it is not suitable.
I thought the moon was millions of year old? The Silurians specifically went into hibernation to avoid its arrival?
When they woke up they used germ warfare to try to destroy mankind.
A little chink of light for all you SAD sufferers out there in PB land. Whilst there is still a week to go to the Winter Solstice, today marked the earliest sunset of the year. Very slowly the evenings will start to lighten from this point forward.
Personally I like the cold, dark winter months best so see no cause for celebration but one has to be magnanimous about these things.
I think this is location dependent. Looks like sunset tomorrow is four seconds earlier tomorrow than today up here. Not that anyone will notice, of course, but pedants dot com and all.
It seems what Javid was saying was the current estimated number of daily infections are around 200,000 of all variants. 20% of which are Omicron.
Hospitalisations and deaths are expected to "dramatically increase" in the next few weeks and the NHS will return to its highest level of emergency preparedness, he adds.
If it does hit a million a day new cases, the vaccines better hold...otherwise we will be having bodies piling up in the streets.
Does the 200k for new daily cases include an estimated upwards adjustment for all the people who catch it and either don't know or don't tell?
I am going to tell you that last week I had a horrible sore throat and felt wonky. Pretty much the same as I felt when I had coronavirus. I thought oh sh&t how can this be to have it again. I LFTed and negative and it passed after a couple of days.
Not impossible it was omicron (I am as it stands 2x jabbed and 1x infected).
This is sort of what I'm getting at. Say we have X new cases today per 'official' test results. This surely means X plus a lot for 'actual' new infections - because many people won't do a test (eg if it's mild or they feel nothing) and many more, if they test at home and it's positive, won't tell the authorities, they'll just hunker down till they get better. So I was just wondering if the case numbers we hear announced by the Saj, or whoever, include an estimated upwards weighting for this.
I had a sore throat and headache friday and a bit of saturday. LFT negative so went about my business. I recieved my booster about three weeks ago. From @dixiedean's anecdote I wonder if I tested too early. Feel totally fine since Saturday night.
That's you and Topping with the same. One boostered one already had it. I had neither. It is just possible both of you had omicron and the LFT just isn't great at picking it up.
V interesting. I wonder if the anti-body test picks up Omicron.
France did 800,000 boosters on Friday. In the last week they've averaged 600,000 a day. For the second time running, the UK has squandered its early advantage.
Well we’re not actually competing with them. I’m happy enough with what we’ve done so far and the new target.
France did 800,000 boosters on Friday. In the last week they've averaged 600,000 a day. For the second time running, the UK has squandered its early advantage.
But they still only done 17% of the population. UK it is double that.
BTW - I am still alive after the Moderna booster so that is 2AZ + M = Immunity
Don't forget 10-15 days before booster kicks in. Then something like 75% efficacy.
Isn't the 75% cumulative with your previous vaccines? So if your previous jabs give you, say 92% immunity, after the booster 75% of the gap to 100% is closed, putting you at 92% + (75% times 8%) = 98%.
Except the efficacy of your first jabs will have faded somewhat.
Sajid Javid says vaccine passport will not be valid unless people have had two jabs and a booster, rather than just two jabs, "once all adults have had a reasonable chance to get their booster jab. https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1470433280348639235?s=20
Suggests the government will expand vaxports to cinemas, restaurants, theatres, pubs etc from January if needed to get more getting their boosters
Good, about time. Those that selfishly decide it is too much risk for them to have a needle in their arm can stay at home.
It is tedious but apparently necessary to remind you that more died in the experimental group than the control group, at a time when I think the COVID strain was Alpha.
Normal medical ethics requires risk-benefit comparisons for the patients treated. Otherwise one risks killing more than one saves. Are you suggesting doing that?
This may suggest that what critics predicted in spring 2021 is happening, i.e. new variants are arising in the vaccinated ( aka vaccine-resistant viruses, cf antibiotic-resistant bacteria).
If it's confirmed that Omicron has an IFR 20x lower than Delta, or 0.004%, it's no longer COVID; it's already mutated into a common cold coronavirus. Anyone who can't cope with a severe cold should be in a care home. Or, if younger, they should get help strengthening their immune system.
And if it's confirmed the Moon is made of cheese it will be enough to feed the world's population for millennia.
Apart the lactose intolerant ones of course...
The lactose content of most hard and aged cheese is low enough for many lactose-intolerant people to eat them. However the moon is actually made of green, ie fresh, cheese so it is not suitable.
I thought the moon was millions of year old? The Silurians specifically went into hibernation to avoid its arrival?
When they woke up they used germ warfare to try to destroy mankind.
France did 800,000 boosters on Friday. In the last week they've averaged 600,000 a day. For the second time running, the UK has squandered its early advantage.
Boosters per capita
UK 32.53% France 18.04%
That doesn't look squandered to me.
Do you think France will finish theirs this month? Do you think France are going to catch up with us any time soon?
France did 800,000 boosters on Friday. In the last week they've averaged 600,000 a day. For the second time running, the UK has squandered its early advantage.
I'm no so sure, I get the feeling this week is going to be a lot bigger than people think it will. The 15 minute rule seems to be going, the pharmacist said from tomorrow they don't need to adhere to it and she's getting double the number of doses per day.
A little chink of light for all you SAD sufferers out there in PB land. Whilst there is still a week to go to the Winter Solstice, today marked the earliest sunset of the year. Very slowly the evenings will start to lighten from this point forward.
Personally I like the cold, dark winter months best so see no cause for celebration but one has to be magnanimous about these things.
I think this is location dependent. Looks like sunset tomorrow is four seconds earlier tomorrow than today up here. Not that anyone will notice, of course, but pedants dot com and all.
Tis. Inverness bottoms out the day after tomorrow.
Re LFT "mystery"....Am I right in thinking they are supposed weighted towards giving false positives vs false negatives? i.e. much more likely to say you have COVID when you don't, rather than as it may seem here the other way around.
The real world data from South Africa continues to be extraordinarily positive. How confident do people feel about the T-Cell response from two doses of vaccine vs natural immunity gained from alpha or delta (which is the SA norm)?
Re LFT "mystery"....Am I right in thinking they are supposed weighted towards giving false positives vs false negatives? i.e. much more likely to say you have COVID when you don't, rather than as it may seem here the other way around.
Just turned down the whole menu here other than the vegetable soup because it’s all rank - how’s your evening going?
I was expecting something big soup-esque but it isn’t that
Possibly the worst of my hopsital food during my 5 week stay in 2012 was the minestrone soup. It was spo bad it looked like they had taken a few used bowls, dumped them in the washing up bowl and then scooped out a portion to serve me. A few lumps were present, a bit of pasta and a watery brown liquid. Ghastly. Add in the cheapest nastiest white bread known to man and that was my 'supper' one night. My taste buds were screwed for some of the time, but by the end were fine. Most of the food was terrible.
Hospital stays are a guaranteed way of losing weight.
A couple of decades ago I was an inpatient at the London Independent Hospital, in Stepney Green. The food there was good - in fact, it was better than the (private) school I'd been attending a couple of years before.
I said such to a nurse, who replied: "Oh, we'll have to do something about that!"
France did 800,000 boosters on Friday. In the last week they've averaged 600,000 a day. For the second time running, the UK has squandered its early advantage.
Boosters per capita
UK 32.53% France 18.04%
That doesn't look squandered to me.
Do you think France will finish theirs this month? Do you think France are going to catch up with us any time soon?
France and Germany are about a month behind us, but on a pretty similar curve.
Attention is going to turn now to Omicron, Christmas, how Covid affects us in the New Year.
If the UK avoids a January lockdown then the PM will deserve credit and will be given space by his MPs. If the UK goes into lockdown then that will burn bridges with even more MPs and I expect the letters will finally go in.
Listening to R4 PM on the way home I think the big fellow has had a great day. The vaccination programme has disposed of Partygate once and for all. Javid and Johnson have both said LFTs are widely available, and Johnson has given Putin and Iran a bloody nose today.
Re LFT "mystery"....Am I right in thinking they are supposed weighted towards giving false positives vs false negatives? i.e. much more likely to say you have COVID when you don't, rather than as it may seem here the other way around.
No. Other way around.
So it could just be that the LFT tests inherent flaws, rather than anything special with Omicron.
The real world data from South Africa continues to be extraordinarily positive. How confident do people feel about the T-Cell response from two doses of vaccine vs natural immunity gained from alpha or delta (which is the SA norm)?
France did 800,000 boosters on Friday. In the last week they've averaged 600,000 a day. For the second time running, the UK has squandered its early advantage.
Squandered? The fanbois won't like that. You better find your tinfoil hat
Do you think France will finish theirs this month? Do you think France are going to catch up with us any time soon?
We squandered the advantage in that we should have been doing that kind of rate for the last month at least. If we had done so, and in particular if we'd lowered the interval to 5 or less months as I and many others suggested, we'd be in a far better position now - and that was obvious even without Omicron.
Attention is going to turn now to Omicron, Christmas, how Covid affects us in the New Year.
If the UK avoids a January lockdown then the PM will deserve credit and will be given space by his MPs. If the UK goes into lockdown then that will burn bridges with even more MPs and I expect the letters will finally go in.
Listening to R4 PM on the way home I think the big fellow has had a great day. The vaccination programme has disposed of Partygate once and for all. Javid and Johnson have both said LFTs are widely available, and Johnson has given Putin and Iran a bloody nose today.
Mark my words, polls on the turn.
The interesting poll number to watch is labour and whether it continues to rise or there is drift away to the lib dems and greens
I understand the lib dems will join the conservative rebels in voting against tomorrow
France did 800,000 boosters on Friday. In the last week they've averaged 600,000 a day. For the second time running, the UK has squandered its early advantage.
Boosters per capita
UK 32.53% France 18.04%
That doesn't look squandered to me.
Do you think France will finish theirs this month? Do you think France are going to catch up with us any time soon?
It was squandered because we should have been doing that
France did 800,000 boosters on Friday. In the last week they've averaged 600,000 a day. For the second time running, the UK has squandered its early advantage.
Boosters per capita
UK 32.53% France 18.04%
That doesn't look squandered to me.
Do you think France will finish theirs this month? Do you think France are going to catch up with us any time soon?
We squandered the advantage in that we should have been doing that kind of rate for the last month at least. If we had done so, and in particular if we'd lowered the interval to 5 or less months as I and many others suggested, we'd be in a far better position now - and that was obvious even without Omicron.
How do you do 800k a day when the JCVI says you can't do people until 6 months and only over 80/60/50s. There isn't enough arms to jab.....
My criticism would be the past 2 weeks haven't seen the sort of uptick that should have occurred and now hearing things like JVT is now only just written to previous volunteers to come back.
In theory, if this variant does evade vax a fair bit then this is a test of Tegnell's approach - he designed a strategy for the longer term with the view there might not be a vax iirc.
Do you think France will finish theirs this month? Do you think France are going to catch up with us any time soon?
We squandered the advantage in that we should have been doing that kind of rate for the last month at least. If we had done so, and in particular if we'd lowered the interval to 5 or less months as I and many others suggested, we'd be in a far better position now - and that was obvious even without Omicron.
Yes, my friend in academia suggested 4.5 months from the off, pointing out that 6 months was also just an arbitrary gap as well. With that gap we wouldn't have this mad panic this week and next to do 10m doses.
Attention is going to turn now to Omicron, Christmas, how Covid affects us in the New Year.
If the UK avoids a January lockdown then the PM will deserve credit and will be given space by his MPs. If the UK goes into lockdown then that will burn bridges with even more MPs and I expect the letters will finally go in.
Listening to R4 PM on the way home I think the big fellow has had a great day. The vaccination programme has disposed of Partygate once and for all. Javid and Johnson have both said LFTs are widely available, and Johnson has given Putin and Iran a bloody nose today.
Mark my words, polls on the turn.
The interesting poll number to watch is labour and whether it continues to rise or there is drift away to the lib dems and greens
I understand the lib dems will join the conservative rebels in voting against tomorrow
Not sure the LDs voting against vaxports will go down that well in North Shropshire, hardly a hotbed of young libertarians
In theory, if this variant does evade vax a fair bit then this is a test of Tegnell's approach - he designed a strategy for the longer term with the view there might not be a vax iirc.
Then again omi seems to reinfect?
Well Tegnell approach wasn't based on anything to do with vaccines, it was he didn't think vaccines were coming for 3-4 years, so nothing would save us in the short term, thus better to get gradual natural infection over and done with.
Problem is, while reinfection via Delta, very low, sub 1% and very very very mild, Omicron looks much higher, hopefully it is also mild.
In theory, if this variant does evade vax a fair bit then this is a test of Tegnell's approach - he designed a strategy for the longer term with the view there might not be a vax iirc.
Then again omi seems to reinfect?
Well Tegnell approach wasn't based on anything to do with vaccines, it was he didn't think vaccines were coming for 3-4 years, so nothing would save us in the short term, thus better to get gradual natural infection over and done with.
Problem is, while reinfection via Delta, very low, sub 1% and very very very mild, Omicron looks much higher, hopefully it is also mild.
I’ve seen reinfection for omicron quoted as about three times more than delta, so I make that 4%. Not great, but not the apocalypse by any stretch.
Do you think France will finish theirs this month? Do you think France are going to catch up with us any time soon?
We squandered the advantage in that we should have been doing that kind of rate for the last month at least. If we had done so, and in particular if we'd lowered the interval to 5 or less months as I and many others suggested, we'd be in a far better position now - and that was obvious even without Omicron.
Yes, my friend in academia suggested 4.5 months from the off, pointing out that 6 months was also just an arbitrary gap as well. With that gap we wouldn't have this mad panic this week and next to do 10m doses.
If the JCVI hadn't been dickheads about this, and the government had given them more hurry up. The optimal strategy would have been kids through the summer holidays, then working back through the population with boosters.
But not we have to say the world, kids didn't need them, boosters were western luxury....
The not doing kids was an absolute massive mistake. We have seen it rips through schools time and time again, no only does that bugger kids education, but they bring it home and infect their parents. So we then end up with cases among kids and middle aged workers much higher than needed, and although they aren't at much danger, it buggers the schools and industry.
In theory, if this variant does evade vax a fair bit then this is a test of Tegnell's approach - he designed a strategy for the longer term with the view there might not be a vax iirc.
Then again omi seems to reinfect?
Well Tegnell approach wasn't based on anything to do with vaccines, it was he didn't think vaccines were coming for 3-4 years, so nothing would save us in the short term, thus better to get gradual natural infection over and done with.
Problem is, while reinfection via Delta, very low, sub 1% and very very very mild, Omicron looks much higher, hopefully it is also mild.
I’ve seen reinfection for omicron quoted as about three times more than delta, so I make that 4%. Not great, but not the apocalypse by any stretch.
Yes and there's no indication on reinfection severity being any worse or better than Delta.
Attention is going to turn now to Omicron, Christmas, how Covid affects us in the New Year.
If the UK avoids a January lockdown then the PM will deserve credit and will be given space by his MPs. If the UK goes into lockdown then that will burn bridges with even more MPs and I expect the letters will finally go in.
Listening to R4 PM on the way home I think the big fellow has had a great day. The vaccination programme has disposed of Partygate once and for all. Javid and Johnson have both said LFTs are widely available, and Johnson has given Putin and Iran a bloody nose today.
Mark my words, polls on the turn.
The interesting poll number to watch is labour and whether it continues to rise or there is drift away to the lib dems and greens
I understand the lib dems will join the conservative rebels in voting against tomorrow
Attention is going to turn now to Omicron, Christmas, how Covid affects us in the New Year.
If the UK avoids a January lockdown then the PM will deserve credit and will be given space by his MPs. If the UK goes into lockdown then that will burn bridges with even more MPs and I expect the letters will finally go in.
Listening to R4 PM on the way home I think the big fellow has had a great day. The vaccination programme has disposed of Partygate once and for all. Javid and Johnson have both said LFTs are widely available, and Johnson has given Putin and Iran a bloody nose today.
Mark my words, polls on the turn.
The interesting poll number to watch is labour and whether it continues to rise or there is drift away to the lib dems and greens
I understand the lib dems will join the conservative rebels in voting against tomorrow
Some naked opportunism there from the LDs.
Not really. More like a further encouraging sign they've remembered what the "liberal" part of their name actually means.
Clue: the common US usage of a direct synonym for "socially left wing" is completely wrong.
Attention is going to turn now to Omicron, Christmas, how Covid affects us in the New Year.
If the UK avoids a January lockdown then the PM will deserve credit and will be given space by his MPs. If the UK goes into lockdown then that will burn bridges with even more MPs and I expect the letters will finally go in.
Listening to R4 PM on the way home I think the big fellow has had a great day. The vaccination programme has disposed of Partygate once and for all
France did 800,000 boosters on Friday. In the last week they've averaged 600,000 a day. For the second time running, the UK has squandered its early advantage.
I'm no so sure, I get the feeling this week is going to be a lot bigger than people think it will. The 15 minute rule seems to be going, the pharmacist said from tomorrow they don't need to adhere to it and she's getting double the number of doses per day.
Agree with that. I posted the graphs earlier.
UK has been running at 0.6% a day since mid-Sept, and meanwhile NHS elective services have been back to about 85-90% of 2019 level.
I'd say they have been prioritising the latter, and have been preparing a switch since a few days ago given Omicron.
I think the numbers will be up 50% this week - look for 0.9% to 1% by the end of the week.
Do you think France will finish theirs this month? Do you think France are going to catch up with us any time soon?
We squandered the advantage in that we should have been doing that kind of rate for the last month at least. If we had done so, and in particular if we'd lowered the interval to 5 or less months as I and many others suggested, we'd be in a far better position now - and that was obvious even without Omicron.
But to be fair we are going to ay a price for the surge. Our surgery today has announced it is cancelling all but urgent appointments for the foreseeable future so that it can concentrate on boosters. Chances are people will die as a result of this or at least have serious, life threatening conditions delayed in being identified. To say that we should have done this sooner when even now it is not obvious that this is a life threatening strain is simply wrong.
Anyone heard from Gordon Brown recently about giving all our “spare” jabs to other countries? Seems to have gone quiet - I’m assuming he’s just isolating away for his own safety having refused his booster and sending it to the developing world?
Attention is going to turn now to Omicron, Christmas, how Covid affects us in the New Year.
If the UK avoids a January lockdown then the PM will deserve credit and will be given space by his MPs. If the UK goes into lockdown then that will burn bridges with even more MPs and I expect the letters will finally go in.
Listening to R4 PM on the way home I think the big fellow has had a great day. The vaccination programme has disposed of Partygate once and for all. Javid and Johnson have both said LFTs are widely available, and Johnson has given Putin and Iran a bloody nose today.
Mark my words, polls on the turn.
The interesting poll number to watch is labour and whether it continues to rise or there is drift away to the lib dems and greens
I understand the lib dems will join the conservative rebels in voting against tomorrow
Some naked opportunism there from the LDs.
Why? The party is against vaxports in principle. Is hitting the Scottish government hard for its support of them, so would be a bit embarrassing to vote for them south of the wall.
Do you think France will finish theirs this month? Do you think France are going to catch up with us any time soon?
We squandered the advantage in that we should have been doing that kind of rate for the last month at least. If we had done so, and in particular if we'd lowered the interval to 5 or less months as I and many others suggested, we'd be in a far better position now - and that was obvious even without Omicron.
But to be fair we are going to ay a price for the surge. Our surgery today has announced it is cancelling all but urgent appointments for the foreseeable future so that it can concentrate on boosters. Chances are people will die as a result of this or at least have serious, life threatening conditions delayed in being identified. To say that we should have done this sooner when even now it is not obvious that this is a life threatening strain is simply wrong.
Yep - why after a year are we using NHS staff to perform injections - surely we could have trained enough other people to do so by now.
A little chink of light for all you SAD sufferers out there in PB land. Whilst there is still a week to go to the Winter Solstice, today marked the earliest sunset of the year. Very slowly the evenings will start to lighten from this point forward.
Personally I like the cold, dark winter months best so see no cause for celebration but one has to be magnanimous about these things.
I think this is location dependent. Looks like sunset tomorrow is four seconds earlier tomorrow than today up here. Not that anyone will notice, of course, but pedants dot com and all.
Apologies, I was working on Lincolnshire time which as you probably know is about .... oooo currently 1727 AD
Attention is going to turn now to Omicron, Christmas, how Covid affects us in the New Year.
If the UK avoids a January lockdown then the PM will deserve credit and will be given space by his MPs. If the UK goes into lockdown then that will burn bridges with even more MPs and I expect the letters will finally go in.
Listening to R4 PM on the way home I think the big fellow has had a great day. The vaccination programme has disposed of Partygate once and for all. Javid and Johnson have both said LFTs are widely available, and Johnson has given Putin and Iran a bloody nose today.
Mark my words, polls on the turn.
The interesting poll number to watch is labour and whether it continues to rise or there is drift away to the lib dems and greens
I understand the lib dems will join the conservative rebels in voting against tomorrow
Not sure the LDs voting against vaxports will go down that well in North Shropshire, hardly a hotbed of young libertarians
When 79 or more conservatives are voting against that argument looks a bit strange
Attention is going to turn now to Omicron, Christmas, how Covid affects us in the New Year.
If the UK avoids a January lockdown then the PM will deserve credit and will be given space by his MPs. If the UK goes into lockdown then that will burn bridges with even more MPs and I expect the letters will finally go in.
Listening to R4 PM on the way home I think the big fellow has had a great day. The vaccination programme has disposed of Partygate once and for all. Javid and Johnson have both said LFTs are widely available, and Johnson has given Putin and Iran a bloody nose today.
Mark my words, polls on the turn.
The interesting poll number to watch is labour and whether it continues to rise or there is drift away to the lib dems and greens
I understand the lib dems will join the conservative rebels in voting against tomorrow
Not sure the LDs voting against vaxports will go down that well in North Shropshire, hardly a hotbed of young libertarians
I doubt if they'll even notice tbh.
On the figures to watch, the Tory one is probably the most significant, because they are the least what under PR we'd call transfer-friendly in marginal seats. If a seat is clearly a Tory vs Labour marginal, the Tories can reasonably hope to get half the RefUk people back, and Labour can reasonably hope for half the LibDem/Green voters. So the Tories need to be on 40% or so to be confident. The equivalent is true in a Con/LibDem marginal, as we are possibly about to see in NS.
Notice shift to *I* didnt break rules. The rat has his fall guys lined up, will promise a return to No10 in future in return for omerta over flat/illegal donations/Geidt...
A little chink of light for all you SAD sufferers out there in PB land. Whilst there is still a week to go to the Winter Solstice, today marked the earliest sunset of the year. Very slowly the evenings will start to lighten from this point forward.
Personally I like the cold, dark winter months best so see no cause for celebration but one has to be magnanimous about these things.
I think this is location dependent. Looks like sunset tomorrow is four seconds earlier tomorrow than today up here. Not that anyone will notice, of course, but pedants dot com and all.
Apologies, I was working on Lincolnshire time which as you probably know is about .... oooo currently 1727 AD
But point taken.
I'll admit, I only went looking because I was sure the earliest sunset happened here about a week ago. Either way, it's dark dark dark here this time of year.
Do you think France will finish theirs this month? Do you think France are going to catch up with us any time soon?
We squandered the advantage in that we should have been doing that kind of rate for the last month at least. If we had done so, and in particular if we'd lowered the interval to 5 or less months as I and many others suggested, we'd be in a far better position now - and that was obvious even without Omicron.
Except the vulnerable have already been done and now we're down to doing 30+ already.
If the Omicron variant hadn't come about then its unlikely that doing 18-30s in January or December would make very much difference anyway and cancelling operations, appointments etc would not have been a price worth paying to bring forwards vaccinations by a couple of weeks.
Do you think France will finish theirs this month? Do you think France are going to catch up with us any time soon?
We squandered the advantage in that we should have been doing that kind of rate for the last month at least. If we had done so, and in particular if we'd lowered the interval to 5 or less months as I and many others suggested, we'd be in a far better position now - and that was obvious even without Omicron.
But to be fair we are going to ay a price for the surge. Our surgery today has announced it is cancelling all but urgent appointments for the foreseeable future so that it can concentrate on boosters. Chances are people will die as a result of this or at least have serious, life threatening conditions delayed in being identified. To say that we should have done this sooner when even now it is not obvious that this is a life threatening strain is simply wrong.
No, it's exactly the other way round. If we'd done it in a planned way, starting before the winter which is always worse for the NHS, making full use of pharmacies, and taking full advantage of the opportunity of doing boosters at the same time as flu jabs, we wouldn't be having to do things in a panic now, with the negative consequences which you highlight.
Do you think France will finish theirs this month? Do you think France are going to catch up with us any time soon?
We squandered the advantage in that we should have been doing that kind of rate for the last month at least. If we had done so, and in particular if we'd lowered the interval to 5 or less months as I and many others suggested, we'd be in a far better position now - and that was obvious even without Omicron.
Yes, my friend in academia suggested 4.5 months from the off, pointing out that 6 months was also just an arbitrary gap as well. With that gap we wouldn't have this mad panic this week and next to do 10m doses.
The mad panic is to distract from Boris taking the piss out of his own lockdown. If it hadn't have been this panic, another one would have been found. In America there is no panic at all, just the CDC confirming what our government wants to treat like fake news, that Omicron is milder.
His gambit has worked if we all assume this surge is really necessary and focus on it as desired. Maybe our experts exceptionalism will prove right this time, but they haven't had a good crisis.
Do you think France will finish theirs this month? Do you think France are going to catch up with us any time soon?
We squandered the advantage in that we should have been doing that kind of rate for the last month at least. If we had done so, and in particular if we'd lowered the interval to 5 or less months as I and many others suggested, we'd be in a far better position now - and that was obvious even without Omicron.
But to be fair we are going to ay a price for the surge. Our surgery today has announced it is cancelling all but urgent appointments for the foreseeable future so that it can concentrate on boosters. Chances are people will die as a result of this or at least have serious, life threatening conditions delayed in being identified. To say that we should have done this sooner when even now it is not obvious that this is a life threatening strain is simply wrong.
No, it's exactly the other way round. If we'd done it in a planned way, starting before the winter which is always worse for the NHS, making full use of pharmacies, and taking full advantage of the opportunity of doing boosters at the same time as boosters, we wouldn't be having to do things in a panic now, with the negative consequences which you highlight.
It was being done in a planned way, it was already available to 30-somethings.
Javid's 200,000 cases is a bit confusing. The 20 odd % is easier to reconcile, but even those are internally inconsistent. The dormancy period would have to be loooong for 200,000 cases to be accurate right now.
There were 2207 KNOWN cases Omicron reported today. The total reported was 54,661.
If we're at 20% Omicron (Also said by Javid I think) then it means we're sequencing 20% of cases.
I can't see how 200,000 cases fits into all this. At least not right at this moment.
Do you think France will finish theirs this month? Do you think France are going to catch up with us any time soon?
We squandered the advantage in that we should have been doing that kind of rate for the last month at least. If we had done so, and in particular if we'd lowered the interval to 5 or less months as I and many others suggested, we'd be in a far better position now - and that was obvious even without Omicron.
But to be fair we are going to ay a price for the surge. Our surgery today has announced it is cancelling all but urgent appointments for the foreseeable future so that it can concentrate on boosters. Chances are people will die as a result of this or at least have serious, life threatening conditions delayed in being identified. To say that we should have done this sooner when even now it is not obvious that this is a life threatening strain is simply wrong.
No, it's exactly the other way round. If we'd done it in a planned way, starting before the winter which is always worse for the NHS, making full use of pharmacies, and taking full advantage of the opportunity of doing boosters at the same time as boosters, we wouldn't be having to do things in a panic now, with the negative consequences which you highlight.
It was being done in a planned way, it was already available to 30-somethings.
Comments
My taste buds were screwed for some of the time, but by the end were fine. Most of the food was terrible.
Personally I like the cold, dark winter months best so see no cause for celebration but one has to be magnanimous about these things.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2114255
I would recommend claiming a special diet, in Leicester these are often catered out by local restaurants. The Indian veg here is quite tolerable, but ignore the rest of the menu.
Or call Deliveroo...
Which back then robbed the British people of 11 days. By the Year of Our Lord 2021 the gap has no doubt expanded.
SO by repealing the Gregorian Calendar and restoring even more freedom for even more freedom loving Britons, the Prime Minister will also give HMG precious extra weeks, maybe months, to achieve his promise to Boost Britain . . . in a good way.
But I reckon Johnson will survive and lead into the next election. Sorry, Nigel.
Clearly Johnson doesn't want to be the Grinch who stole Christmas and will do almost anything to avoid that. But if the worst predictions are true and the numbers are looking stratospheric this time next week, yes, I wouldn't bet against a last-minute lockdown.
So if your previous jabs give you, say 92% immunity, after the booster 75% of the gap to 100% is closed, putting you at 92% + (75% times 8%) = 98%.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/lisakim/2021/12/10/covid-booster-shot-increases-vaccine-effectiveness-to-71-75-against-omicron-uk-scientists-say/?sh=76f6ad713003
That was the unloved Environment Agency, which is still with us today. Sclerotic and too big to manage effectively, it subsumed several earlier bodies including the National Rivers Authority, which had been doing a generally good job. The NRA's chairman, Lord Crickhowell, wrote an autobiography which was scathing about the whole episode.
I had neither.
It is just possible both of you had omicron and the LFT just isn't great at picking it up.
The LibDems were on 5.9% in their 'post-merger, pre-Eastbourne' days.
Attention is going to turn now to Omicron, Christmas, how Covid affects us in the New Year.
If the UK avoids a January lockdown then the PM will deserve credit and will be given space by his MPs. If the UK goes into lockdown then that will burn bridges with even more MPs and I expect the letters will finally go in.
I could of course have just had another bug.
UK 32.53%
France 18.04%
That doesn't look squandered to me.
Do you think France will finish theirs this month? Do you think France are going to catch up with us any time soon?
I said such to a nurse, who replied: "Oh, we'll have to do something about that!"
Listening to R4 PM on the way home I think the big fellow has had a great day. The vaccination programme has disposed of Partygate once and for all. Javid and Johnson have both said LFTs are widely available, and Johnson has given Putin and Iran a bloody nose today.
Mark my words, polls on the turn.
I understand the lib dems will join the conservative rebels in voting against tomorrow
Plus right-wing libertarian anti vaxporters having a strop and going RefUK
My criticism would be the past 2 weeks haven't seen the sort of uptick that should have occurred and now hearing things like JVT is now only just written to previous volunteers to come back.
In theory, if this variant does evade vax a fair bit then this is a test of Tegnell's approach - he designed a strategy for the longer term with the view there might not be a vax iirc.
Then again omi seems to reinfect?
Problem is, while reinfection via Delta, very low, sub 1% and very very very mild, Omicron looks much higher, hopefully it is also mild.
But not we have to say the world, kids didn't need them, boosters were western luxury....
The not doing kids was an absolute massive mistake. We have seen it rips through schools time and time again, no only does that bugger kids education, but they bring it home and infect their parents. So we then end up with cases among kids and middle aged workers much higher than needed, and although they aren't at much danger, it buggers the schools and industry.
https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1470458214210748427?s=20
https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1470457862006607873?s=20
Clue: the common US usage of a direct synonym for "socially left wing" is completely wrong.
UK has been running at 0.6% a day since mid-Sept, and meanwhile NHS elective services have been back to about 85-90% of 2019 level.
I'd say they have been prioritising the latter, and have been preparing a switch since a few days ago given Omicron.
I think the numbers will be up 50% this week - look for 0.9% to 1% by the end of the week.
https://twitter.com/LozzaFox/status/1470460573737435147?s=20
"It will never end"
is he talking
about
his fucking tweet?
He’s in a proper stew alright!
https://newsfromcrystalpalace.wordpress.com/2020/07/27/boris-johnson-finishes-runner-up-in-vegetable-competition-beaten-by-frida-kale-o/
But point taken.
On the figures to watch, the Tory one is probably the most significant, because they are the least what under PR we'd call transfer-friendly in marginal seats. If a seat is clearly a Tory vs Labour marginal, the Tories can reasonably hope to get half the RefUk people back, and Labour can reasonably hope for half the LibDem/Green voters. So the Tories need to be on 40% or so to be confident. The equivalent is true in a Con/LibDem marginal, as we are possibly about to see in NS.
The rat has his fall guys lined up, will promise a return to No10 in future in return for omerta over flat/illegal donations/Geidt...
https://twitter.com/Dominic2306/status/1470383314070605830
Either way, it's dark dark dark here this time of year.
If the Omicron variant hadn't come about then its unlikely that doing 18-30s in January or December would make very much difference anyway and cancelling operations, appointments etc would not have been a price worth paying to bring forwards vaccinations by a couple of weeks.
His gambit has worked if we all assume this surge is really necessary and focus on it as desired. Maybe our experts exceptionalism will prove right this time, but they haven't had a good crisis.
The dormancy period would have to be loooong for 200,000 cases to be accurate right now.
There were 2207 KNOWN cases Omicron reported today.
The total reported was 54,661.
If we're at 20% Omicron (Also said by Javid I think) then it means we're sequencing 20% of cases.
I can't see how 200,000 cases fits into all this. At least not right at this moment.