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Starmer leads Johnson by 13% as “most capable PM” – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited December 2021 in General
imageStarmer leads Johnson by 13% as “most capable PM” – politicalbetting.com

Boris Johnson slumps 13 points behind Keir Starmer as most capable PM @IpsosMORI poll for Standard. Other numbers are as bad for the PMhttps://t.co/OfmQidwcyP pic.twitter.com/nraJggEDH5

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975
    Not surprised
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 3,163
    edited December 2021
    Surely not 1?

    Dammit, Ishmael :smile: I'm not surprised either.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 3,163
    edited December 2021
    Selebian said:

    Surely not 1?

    Dammit, Ishmael :smile: I'm not surprised either.

    Well, I'll get myself bronze too, I think

    3rd like Johnson in the ratings of most competent* PMs of the last decade

    *May was competent(ish), I think. Just lacking in any good ideas, vision or charm to take others with her.
  • Emperor's New Clothes time.
  • Gone in the morning (after the by-election defeat)...gone in the morrrrrrnnnning (after the by-election defeat)....he'll be gone in the morning ((after the by-election defeat).
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,321
    So many people now just want Boris gone.
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710
    FPT

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1470387309212221446

    Philip will be along to explain to us why lying is actually good

    Lying is what politicians do. It isn't good.
    Farooq said:

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1470387309212221446

    Philip will be along to explain to us why lying is actually good

    Philip leads by example
    Indeed I've never lied here. If you want to slander me, then please say a lie I've said. Having a different opinion to you isn't a lie.
    It's not slander; I've detailed your lies in the previous conversation.
    You are a liar who lies, and you got upset when I detailed them. Nothing more to say.
    You lied. You claimed I said "masks don't work" when I actually said "mask mandates don't work".

    Then you dug in and quoted me saying "mask mandates don't work" and claimed that as proof of me saying "masks don't work". Its not, its proof of me saying "mask mandates don't work".

    If you want to change or omit the words someone says, then put words they didn't say in quotation marks, then you are the one who is dishonest. If you have to change what someone said to mock or insult them, then you've already lost the argument - and your credibility.
    you're still lying
    You are. I said mask mandates, you claimed I said masks then literally quoted me saying mask mandates.

    You have no integrity it seems. You could have admitted you had made a mistake, not understanding the distinction between the two, but you didn't.
    lies lies lies. liar philip is lying still
    Unparliamentary language! Suspended from the House for 30 days or resign and trigger a by election, which is it to be?

    Anyone MP suspended from the house for more than 10 days is subject to a recall petition.

    And it's possible to see Boris being subject to a 10 day suspension given the current charges against him.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281
    eek said:

    FPT

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1470387309212221446

    Philip will be along to explain to us why lying is actually good

    Lying is what politicians do. It isn't good.
    Farooq said:

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1470387309212221446

    Philip will be along to explain to us why lying is actually good

    Philip leads by example
    Indeed I've never lied here. If you want to slander me, then please say a lie I've said. Having a different opinion to you isn't a lie.
    It's not slander; I've detailed your lies in the previous conversation.
    You are a liar who lies, and you got upset when I detailed them. Nothing more to say.
    You lied. You claimed I said "masks don't work" when I actually said "mask mandates don't work".

    Then you dug in and quoted me saying "mask mandates don't work" and claimed that as proof of me saying "masks don't work". Its not, its proof of me saying "mask mandates don't work".

    If you want to change or omit the words someone says, then put words they didn't say in quotation marks, then you are the one who is dishonest. If you have to change what someone said to mock or insult them, then you've already lost the argument - and your credibility.
    you're still lying
    You are. I said mask mandates, you claimed I said masks then literally quoted me saying mask mandates.

    You have no integrity it seems. You could have admitted you had made a mistake, not understanding the distinction between the two, but you didn't.
    lies lies lies. liar philip is lying still
    Unparliamentary language! Suspended from the House for 30 days or resign and trigger a by election, which is it to be?

    Anyone MP suspended from the house for more than 10 days is subject to a recall petition.

    And it's possible to see Boris being subject to a 10 day suspension given the current charges against him.
    A suspension for the serving PM would be fascinating in a myriad ways.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975
    eek said:

    FPT

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1470387309212221446

    Philip will be along to explain to us why lying is actually good

    Lying is what politicians do. It isn't good.
    Farooq said:

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1470387309212221446

    Philip will be along to explain to us why lying is actually good

    Philip leads by example
    Indeed I've never lied here. If you want to slander me, then please say a lie I've said. Having a different opinion to you isn't a lie.
    It's not slander; I've detailed your lies in the previous conversation.
    You are a liar who lies, and you got upset when I detailed them. Nothing more to say.
    You lied. You claimed I said "masks don't work" when I actually said "mask mandates don't work".

    Then you dug in and quoted me saying "mask mandates don't work" and claimed that as proof of me saying "masks don't work". Its not, its proof of me saying "mask mandates don't work".

    If you want to change or omit the words someone says, then put words they didn't say in quotation marks, then you are the one who is dishonest. If you have to change what someone said to mock or insult them, then you've already lost the argument - and your credibility.
    you're still lying
    You are. I said mask mandates, you claimed I said masks then literally quoted me saying mask mandates.

    You have no integrity it seems. You could have admitted you had made a mistake, not understanding the distinction between the two, but you didn't.
    lies lies lies. liar philip is lying still
    Unparliamentary language! Suspended from the House for 30 days or resign and trigger a by election, which is it to be?

    Anyone MP suspended from the house for more than 10 days is subject to a recall petition.

    And it's possible to see Boris being subject to a 10 day suspension given the current charges against him.
    That would be a fittingly squalid end. Virtual lamppost, sort of.
  • The most incredible thing about Peleton, they lost money during the pandemic.....apparently they kept advertising to such a crazy extent, such their customer acquisition costs were so high they never making it back.

    Lost 16% market cap last week because they authorised Sex and the City to use their name but did not enquire about the plot. It was to kill off Mr Big with a heart attack.
    The management sounds like they are totally incompetent.

    Apparently their profit margin on each bike is hardly anything, so they need the subscriptions. The advertising spend they did during the pandemic, they literally kept doubling down, to the extent where they needed to be converting new customers at rates they have never achieved before and for them to become members for lengths like they have never managed, for a niche product that costs £2k to start and then £40 / month...so its not like you are flogging stuff in a pound shop. The number of people in the world who can even afford their product is seriously capped.
    And then they reduced the price of their product, which must have seriously pissed off those who had recently purchased at the full price.

    The real value in Peloton as a business is the data it owns. As long as that is being stored and managed properly, it is going to be fine.

    What essential valuable data are they collecting? Their systems don't measure things like heart rate accurately. I don't believe the bikes don't even have accurate power meters built in.

    If you were hoping that you were getting fantastic fitness data, I don't see it, in the way you get it from Zwift, where all the keeno's are inputting their stats every week, wearing their heart monitors, they use smart trainers which produces extremely detailed power, cadence, etc data....

    Zwift is a gold mine of health tracking data.
  • :lol:

    image
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,875
    eek said:

    FPT

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1470387309212221446

    Philip will be along to explain to us why lying is actually good

    Lying is what politicians do. It isn't good.
    Farooq said:

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1470387309212221446

    Philip will be along to explain to us why lying is actually good

    Philip leads by example
    Indeed I've never lied here. If you want to slander me, then please say a lie I've said. Having a different opinion to you isn't a lie.
    It's not slander; I've detailed your lies in the previous conversation.
    You are a liar who lies, and you got upset when I detailed them. Nothing more to say.
    You lied. You claimed I said "masks don't work" when I actually said "mask mandates don't work".

    Then you dug in and quoted me saying "mask mandates don't work" and claimed that as proof of me saying "masks don't work". Its not, its proof of me saying "mask mandates don't work".

    If you want to change or omit the words someone says, then put words they didn't say in quotation marks, then you are the one who is dishonest. If you have to change what someone said to mock or insult them, then you've already lost the argument - and your credibility.
    you're still lying
    You are. I said mask mandates, you claimed I said masks then literally quoted me saying mask mandates.

    You have no integrity it seems. You could have admitted you had made a mistake, not understanding the distinction between the two, but you didn't.
    lies lies lies. liar philip is lying still
    Unparliamentary language! Suspended from the House for 30 days or resign and trigger a by election, which is it to be?

    Anyone MP suspended from the house for more than 10 days is subject to a recall petition.

    And it's possible to see Boris being subject to a 10 day suspension given the current charges against him.
    Talking about UPL, Mr Blackford recently found a way of saying AIUI that Mr Johnson was a liar, and not being reprimanded. Something to do with the rules; I forget the technicalities.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,875
    dixiedean said:

    eek said:

    FPT

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1470387309212221446

    Philip will be along to explain to us why lying is actually good

    Lying is what politicians do. It isn't good.
    Farooq said:

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1470387309212221446

    Philip will be along to explain to us why lying is actually good

    Philip leads by example
    Indeed I've never lied here. If you want to slander me, then please say a lie I've said. Having a different opinion to you isn't a lie.
    It's not slander; I've detailed your lies in the previous conversation.
    You are a liar who lies, and you got upset when I detailed them. Nothing more to say.
    You lied. You claimed I said "masks don't work" when I actually said "mask mandates don't work".

    Then you dug in and quoted me saying "mask mandates don't work" and claimed that as proof of me saying "masks don't work". Its not, its proof of me saying "mask mandates don't work".

    If you want to change or omit the words someone says, then put words they didn't say in quotation marks, then you are the one who is dishonest. If you have to change what someone said to mock or insult them, then you've already lost the argument - and your credibility.
    you're still lying
    You are. I said mask mandates, you claimed I said masks then literally quoted me saying mask mandates.

    You have no integrity it seems. You could have admitted you had made a mistake, not understanding the distinction between the two, but you didn't.
    lies lies lies. liar philip is lying still
    Unparliamentary language! Suspended from the House for 30 days or resign and trigger a by election, which is it to be?

    Anyone MP suspended from the house for more than 10 days is subject to a recall petition.

    And it's possible to see Boris being subject to a 10 day suspension given the current charges against him.
    A suspension for the serving PM would be fascinating in a myriad ways.
    Quite a few Tory MPs might be tempted to vote for it. But would they do it?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,756
    edited December 2021
    Daily Mail headline: "UK'S FIRST OMICRON DEATH"
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,321
    IshmaelZ said:

    eek said:

    FPT

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1470387309212221446

    Philip will be along to explain to us why lying is actually good

    Lying is what politicians do. It isn't good.
    Farooq said:

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1470387309212221446

    Philip will be along to explain to us why lying is actually good

    Philip leads by example
    Indeed I've never lied here. If you want to slander me, then please say a lie I've said. Having a different opinion to you isn't a lie.
    It's not slander; I've detailed your lies in the previous conversation.
    You are a liar who lies, and you got upset when I detailed them. Nothing more to say.
    You lied. You claimed I said "masks don't work" when I actually said "mask mandates don't work".

    Then you dug in and quoted me saying "mask mandates don't work" and claimed that as proof of me saying "masks don't work". Its not, its proof of me saying "mask mandates don't work".

    If you want to change or omit the words someone says, then put words they didn't say in quotation marks, then you are the one who is dishonest. If you have to change what someone said to mock or insult them, then you've already lost the argument - and your credibility.
    you're still lying
    You are. I said mask mandates, you claimed I said masks then literally quoted me saying mask mandates.

    You have no integrity it seems. You could have admitted you had made a mistake, not understanding the distinction between the two, but you didn't.
    lies lies lies. liar philip is lying still
    Unparliamentary language! Suspended from the House for 30 days or resign and trigger a by election, which is it to be?

    Anyone MP suspended from the house for more than 10 days is subject to a recall petition.

    And it's possible to see Boris being subject to a 10 day suspension given the current charges against him.
    That would be a fittingly squalid end. Virtual lamppost, sort of.
    Thankfully we live in more civilised times.

    Anyhow, if you are thinking of the Italian example, it would need a reasonably long street.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 12,499
    The standard PB joke writes itself

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    I just don't understand how - given the clear evidence on hospitalisation rates, length of average stay for those who are hospitalised, and death rates - there is so much panic about the new variant. Especially given UK's relatively high vaccination rates.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,875
    IanB2 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    eek said:

    FPT

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1470387309212221446

    Philip will be along to explain to us why lying is actually good

    Lying is what politicians do. It isn't good.
    Farooq said:

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1470387309212221446

    Philip will be along to explain to us why lying is actually good

    Philip leads by example
    Indeed I've never lied here. If you want to slander me, then please say a lie I've said. Having a different opinion to you isn't a lie.
    It's not slander; I've detailed your lies in the previous conversation.
    You are a liar who lies, and you got upset when I detailed them. Nothing more to say.
    You lied. You claimed I said "masks don't work" when I actually said "mask mandates don't work".

    Then you dug in and quoted me saying "mask mandates don't work" and claimed that as proof of me saying "masks don't work". Its not, its proof of me saying "mask mandates don't work".

    If you want to change or omit the words someone says, then put words they didn't say in quotation marks, then you are the one who is dishonest. If you have to change what someone said to mock or insult them, then you've already lost the argument - and your credibility.
    you're still lying
    You are. I said mask mandates, you claimed I said masks then literally quoted me saying mask mandates.

    You have no integrity it seems. You could have admitted you had made a mistake, not understanding the distinction between the two, but you didn't.
    lies lies lies. liar philip is lying still
    Unparliamentary language! Suspended from the House for 30 days or resign and trigger a by election, which is it to be?

    Anyone MP suspended from the house for more than 10 days is subject to a recall petition.

    And it's possible to see Boris being subject to a 10 day suspension given the current charges against him.
    That would be a fittingly squalid end. Virtual lamppost, sort of.
    Thankfully we live in more civilised times.

    Anyhow, if you are thinking of the Italian example, it would need a reasonably long street.
    I was rather shaken to see PBers referring to Clara Petacci the other day. This isn't the Daily Mail, is it?
  • :lol:

    image

    This post is like a tonic
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975
    Carnyx said:

    dixiedean said:

    eek said:

    FPT

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1470387309212221446

    Philip will be along to explain to us why lying is actually good

    Lying is what politicians do. It isn't good.
    Farooq said:

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1470387309212221446

    Philip will be along to explain to us why lying is actually good

    Philip leads by example
    Indeed I've never lied here. If you want to slander me, then please say a lie I've said. Having a different opinion to you isn't a lie.
    It's not slander; I've detailed your lies in the previous conversation.
    You are a liar who lies, and you got upset when I detailed them. Nothing more to say.
    You lied. You claimed I said "masks don't work" when I actually said "mask mandates don't work".

    Then you dug in and quoted me saying "mask mandates don't work" and claimed that as proof of me saying "masks don't work". Its not, its proof of me saying "mask mandates don't work".

    If you want to change or omit the words someone says, then put words they didn't say in quotation marks, then you are the one who is dishonest. If you have to change what someone said to mock or insult them, then you've already lost the argument - and your credibility.
    you're still lying
    You are. I said mask mandates, you claimed I said masks then literally quoted me saying mask mandates.

    You have no integrity it seems. You could have admitted you had made a mistake, not understanding the distinction between the two, but you didn't.
    lies lies lies. liar philip is lying still
    Unparliamentary language! Suspended from the House for 30 days or resign and trigger a by election, which is it to be?

    Anyone MP suspended from the house for more than 10 days is subject to a recall petition.

    And it's possible to see Boris being subject to a 10 day suspension given the current charges against him.
    A suspension for the serving PM would be fascinating in a myriad ways.
    Quite a few Tory MPs might be tempted to vote for it. But would they do it?
    I don't think they could vote down a recommendation of the Standards and Privileges Select Committee, post Paterson.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited December 2021
    Andy_JS said:

    Daily Mail headline: "UK'S FIRST OMICRON DEATH"

    The media and public are going to go from one extreme to the other in the space of a few days.

    Its going to be from "its only mild, nobody dies from it, i will get my booster later"...."100s died today, Boris is killing grannies again, i can't get my booster for 3 weeks panicccccccc".

    Rather than the middle ground of its probably milder, but it is very infectious, if you are vulnerable you should be cautious, if you are not, you probably going to get it, but the vaccines (booster or not) should ensure that you won't suffer hospitalisation.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 2,461
    Andy_JS said:

    Daily Mail headline: "UK'S FIRST OMICRON DEATH"

    I would guess that 400-500 people will die today from flu/influenza.
  • Listening to him today he looked beaten and to be honest he needs to step down for everyone's sake

    It is hard to listen to him and the 1922 must tell him it is over
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 29,560
    edited December 2021
    Starmer is doing much better now in relative terms, but Labour is still a long way away from being fully convincing. It is still only getting the kind of mid-term leads which should be routine in any parliamentary term, let alone one with a government as dysfunctional as this one.

    Still, the recent reshuffle seems to have improved things somewhat for Labour - Wes Streeting in particular seems to be doing well - but they need to keep at it and really work on being a credible alternative. Can they convince voters, in time for the next GE, that Labour is ready and fit to govern? I don't know, but I've long been of the view that as soon as Labour does look like a serious alternative, voting intentions will shift decisively in their favour.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,607
    As well as @Keir_Starmer giving TV address tonight in response to @BorisJohnson booster update, hearing @NicolaSturgeon will have similar opportunity tomorrow
    https://twitter.com/GlennBBC/status/1470402055084941317
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710

    Andy_JS said:

    Daily Mail headline: "UK'S FIRST OMICRON DEATH"

    I would guess that 400-500 people will die today from flu/influenza.
    Really? In a bad year flu kills 25,000 a year across the entire winter - that gives me a death rate of 250 a day at worst, not 400-500.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 56,656
    edited December 2021

    Andy_JS said:

    Daily Mail headline: "UK'S FIRST OMICRON DEATH"

    I would guess that 400-500 people will die today from flu/influenza.
    Only one of those is going to grow substantially over the next few weeks.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 3,689
    Months and months of lies:

    A lot of the mask zealots and the antivaxxers and the lockdown zealots all use the same or similar fake arguments. Vaccines work. The rest of that bullshit doesn't.
    (FALSE, masks and lockdowns work)

    Masks have been trialled and failed
    (FALSE)

    The thing that works isn't cloth masks, its social distancing.
    (FALSE, both work)

    A big reason masks are so popular in East Asia is due to very poor air quality and not due to viruses.
    (WEIRD)

    No, for the vaccinated its not any mitigation whatsoever that they're not going to infect others - which is what the mask is supposedly about.
    (FALSE, vaccinated people can infect people)

    All quotes from @Philip_Thompson
    Ideology-lead lies from a liar.
  • Scott_xP said:

    As well as @Keir_Starmer giving TV address tonight in response to @BorisJohnson booster update, hearing @NicolaSturgeon will have similar opportunity tomorrow
    https://twitter.com/GlennBBC/status/1470402055084941317

    Drakeford this evening
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,875
    IshmaelZ said:

    Carnyx said:

    dixiedean said:

    eek said:

    FPT

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1470387309212221446

    Philip will be along to explain to us why lying is actually good

    Lying is what politicians do. It isn't good.
    Farooq said:

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1470387309212221446

    Philip will be along to explain to us why lying is actually good

    Philip leads by example
    Indeed I've never lied here. If you want to slander me, then please say a lie I've said. Having a different opinion to you isn't a lie.
    It's not slander; I've detailed your lies in the previous conversation.
    You are a liar who lies, and you got upset when I detailed them. Nothing more to say.
    You lied. You claimed I said "masks don't work" when I actually said "mask mandates don't work".

    Then you dug in and quoted me saying "mask mandates don't work" and claimed that as proof of me saying "masks don't work". Its not, its proof of me saying "mask mandates don't work".

    If you want to change or omit the words someone says, then put words they didn't say in quotation marks, then you are the one who is dishonest. If you have to change what someone said to mock or insult them, then you've already lost the argument - and your credibility.
    you're still lying
    You are. I said mask mandates, you claimed I said masks then literally quoted me saying mask mandates.

    You have no integrity it seems. You could have admitted you had made a mistake, not understanding the distinction between the two, but you didn't.
    lies lies lies. liar philip is lying still
    Unparliamentary language! Suspended from the House for 30 days or resign and trigger a by election, which is it to be?

    Anyone MP suspended from the house for more than 10 days is subject to a recall petition.

    And it's possible to see Boris being subject to a 10 day suspension given the current charges against him.
    A suspension for the serving PM would be fascinating in a myriad ways.
    Quite a few Tory MPs might be tempted to vote for it. But would they do it?
    I don't think they could vote down a recommendation of the Standards and Privileges Select Committee, post Paterson.
    Hmm, it's the ones who might vote against that committee that also interest me. Especially as IIRC the second-jobbers and the like tend also to be the anti-vaxxer, anti-NPI, etc. old guard. Bit of a conflict there.
  • Having made my semi-enigmatic on topic comment I will now return to the discussion on the previous thread.

    At the beginning on 2021 I weighed in at 22 stones 4 pounds. I am 6 ft 1 (although at the end of the day I am normally 6ft)

    I mention this for two reasons.

    Firstly for a bit of mild praise seeking. I am today 17 stone 13 and more than half way to my target weight of 14 stone.

    Secondly to point out, in reply to CHB's comment on an earlier thread concerning Johnson, that I never looked anywhere near that weight. That was actually one of the problems. It is quite possible to be extremely overweight and not look as bad as you really are. I can quite believe Johnson could have been 17 1/2 stone and not looked it - although actually I would have guessed close to that at his heaviest. Some people are just fortunate that they can carry that sort of weight and, whilst they look overweight, they don't look as heavy as they really are. It is actually a big problem if you don't monitor your weight and are just relying on 'how you look'.

    Anyway. That was my contribution to the Johnson weight debate. From one porker to another. I can quite believe he was as heavy as claimed.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 993

    Starmer is doing much better now in relative terms, but Labour is still a long way away from being fully convincing. It is still only getting the kind of mid-term leads which should be routine in any parliamentary term, let alone one with a government as dysfunctional as this one.

    Still, the recent reshuffle seems to have improved things somewhat for Labour - Wes Streeting in particular seems to be doing well - but they need to keep at it and really work on being a credible alternative. Can they convince voters, in time for the next GE, that Labour is ready and fit to govern? I don't know, but I've long been of the view that as soon as Labour does look like a serious alternative, voting intentions will shift decisively in their favour.

    I wonder if the maths has changed a bit since the days of more regular mid-term leads though, as it seems to have in the US too. In a highly partisan era we seem to see smaller swings, fewer floating voters and a larger base (and in the UK more churn between parties within the left and right bubbles rather than between) that a shift of a few points from Tory to Labour is more significant than it might have been a decade ago.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 33,472

    Starmer is doing much better now in relative terms, but Labour is still a long way away from being fully convincing. It is still only getting the kind of mid-term leads which should be routine in any parliamentary term, let alone one with a government as dysfunctional as this one.

    Still, the recent reshuffle seems to have improved things somewhat for Labour - Wes Streeting in particular seems to be doing well - but they need to keep at it and really work on being a credible alternative. Can they convince voters, in time for the next GE, that Labour is ready and fit to govern? I don't know, but I've long been of the view that as soon as Labour does look like a serious alternative, voting intentions will shift decisively in their favour.

    Boris keeps them in play, if the Tories get rid how does that change the dynamic. A lot depends on the replacement but anyone will be better than Boris.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281

    Andy_JS said:

    Daily Mail headline: "UK'S FIRST OMICRON DEATH"

    The media and public are going to go from one extreme to the other in the space of a few days.

    Its going to be from "its only mild, nobody dies from it, i will get my booster later"...."100s died today, Boris is killing grannies again, i can't get my booster for 3 weeks panicccccccc".

    Rather than the middle ground of its probably milder, but it is very infectious, if you are vulnerable you should be cautious, if you are not, you probably going to get it, but the vaccines (booster or not) should ensure that you won't suffer hospitalisation.
    Sensible stuff.
    Do not consider a career change to journalism, mind.
  • Mr. Nabavi, Labour being lacklustre and unimpressive is still enough when the PM is as he is.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 12,499

    Andy_JS said:

    Daily Mail headline: "UK'S FIRST OMICRON DEATH"

    The media and public are going to go from one extreme to the other in the space of a few days.

    Its going to be from "its only mild, nobody dies from it, i will get my booster later"...."100s died today, Boris is killing grannies again, i can't get my booster for 3 weeks".

    Rather than the middle ground of its probably milder, but it is very infectious, if you are vulnerable you should be cautious, if you are not, you probably going to get it, but the vaccines (booster or not) should ensure that you won't suffer hospitalisation.
    I really don't know where you get this idea from that the mainstream media narrative is one of mildness. That certainly has not been the case up to now.

    Now, this seems to be slowly changing today – there are few examples of discussion of its being mild, but the idea that that is the narrative is for the birds.

    The narrative has been the opposite – one of complete panic.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 3,689
    One thing the @Philip_Thompson is right about, most of his moaning about masks is about mask mandates. The only trouble is, when he says that mask mandates don't work, that's also a lie. A lie he persisted in even after being confronted with the evidence that they do. He said he's read the study, but that was probably just a lie.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975
    Farooq said:

    Months and months of lies:

    A lot of the mask zealots and the antivaxxers and the lockdown zealots all use the same or similar fake arguments. Vaccines work. The rest of that bullshit doesn't.
    (FALSE, masks and lockdowns work)

    Masks have been trialled and failed
    (FALSE)

    The thing that works isn't cloth masks, its social distancing.
    (FALSE, both work)

    A big reason masks are so popular in East Asia is due to very poor air quality and not due to viruses.
    (WEIRD)

    No, for the vaccinated its not any mitigation whatsoever that they're not going to infect others - which is what the mask is supposedly about.
    (FALSE, vaccinated people can infect people)

    All quotes from @Philip_Thompson
    Ideology-lead lies from a liar.

    Led, lead pronounced like that is a metal

    I have seen more sophisticated online campaigns than this pants-on-fire stuff.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited December 2021
    Another problem the Tories have is a significant vocal minority are against any restrictions. I don't think that plays well especially with their base of scared oldies.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 1,956

    Listening to him today he looked beaten and to be honest he needs to step down for everyone's sake

    It is hard to listen to him and the 1922 must tell him it is over

    I don't pretend to have the Conservative party's best interests at heart and I've shared the sentiment in your second paragraph for as long as I can remember; but I genuinely think it is better for the Tories to get rid of him quickly. As others including @Richard_Nabavi have noted, Labour/Starmer aren't doing that well (somewhere between standing still as Boris runs briskly backwards, or perhaps a slight forward movement) but the longer the shambles continues, the more likely that they grow into the public perception of a government in waiting. A new PM now might be able to stop that perception growing; a new PM once the perception is already secure is unlikely to be able to claw back credibility.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975

    Mr. Nabavi, Labour being lacklustre and unimpressive is still enough when the PM is as he is.

    My campari fuelled analogy from Saturday:

    Imagine a tower block like the one in the Towering Inferno

    There's a penthouse suite on the 150th floor where a bloke, let's call him Jackson, is doing coke and knobbing birds and generally being King of the World, and there's a small accountancy business on the 6th floor where a dreary balding bloke, call him Keith, is keeping up his chargeable hours. Now imagine Jackson falls off the balcony and splats on the street. Suddenly Keith is a neck breaking height above Jackson, just by virtue of where he is. Doesn't need to get in the lift, no reason to think he even knows how the lift works.
  • They wear masks in Asia because of their extensive experience with previous viruses.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 22,380

    Andy_JS said:

    Daily Mail headline: "UK'S FIRST OMICRON DEATH"

    The media and public are going to go from one extreme to the other in the space of a few days.

    Its going to be from "its only mild, nobody dies from it, i will get my booster later"...."100s died today, Boris is killing grannies again, i can't get my booster for 3 weeks".

    Rather than the middle ground of its probably milder, but it is very infectious, if you are vulnerable you should be cautious, if you are not, you probably going to get it, but the vaccines (booster or not) should ensure that you won't suffer hospitalisation.
    I really don't know where you get this idea from that the mainstream media narrative is one of mildness. That certainly has not been the case up to now.

    Now, this seems to be slowly changing today – there are few examples of discussion of its being mild, but the idea that that is the narrative is for the birds.

    The narrative has been the opposite – one of complete panic.
    The next panic will be that todays vaccination figures will show only the same upward progression that they have for several weeks.

    The numbers published each day have a non-trivial amount of lag. So we won't see any big changes for a couple of days.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited December 2021

    Andy_JS said:

    Daily Mail headline: "UK'S FIRST OMICRON DEATH"

    The media and public are going to go from one extreme to the other in the space of a few days.

    Its going to be from "its only mild, nobody dies from it, i will get my booster later"...."100s died today, Boris is killing grannies again, i can't get my booster for 3 weeks".

    Rather than the middle ground of its probably milder, but it is very infectious, if you are vulnerable you should be cautious, if you are not, you probably going to get it, but the vaccines (booster or not) should ensure that you won't suffer hospitalisation.
    I really don't know where you get this idea from that the mainstream media narrative is one of mildness. That certainly has not been the case up to now.

    Now, this seems to be slowly changing today – there are few examples of discussion of its being mild, but the idea that that is the narrative is for the birds.

    The narrative has been the opposite – one of complete panic.
    Its been morning, noon and f##king night that it is mild.....

    Kay Burley this morning was basically calling Javid a liar and a scare mongerer, saying yeah but its mild isn't, well we don't know that for a fact yet, yeah but how many in hospital, well 18 confirmed but...., yeah and how many died, come on, none isn't it, its mild, just admit it, its mild...
  • Just had my booster at the village pharmacy. 2 queues - one for pre-booked and one for drop ins. All very efficient. They checked me in and jabbed me within 2 minutes. Lots of people just turned up for jabs, many of them looked under 40 and some under 30. It is a small pharmacy so just one person jabbing but there were 3 large plastic clinical waste tubs full of used syringes that I could see. I got Moderna.

    I imagine today's vaccine number is going to be big but as others have said we need to be doing almost 1M/day. Previous record was I think 800k earlier in the year.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 12,499
    Christmas parties update:

    One postponed

    One confirmed

    Last week's one was staged happily.

    I guess two out of three ain't (that) bad.
  • The queue for walk-in booster jabs at St Thomas’ is 3 hours long, and it’s stretching right across Westminster Bridge. @LBC @LBCNews...

    Staff say the queue is now FIVE hours long, but everyone in it will get a dose today.


    https://twitter.com/charlotterlynch/status/1470397037908799496?s=20
  • MaxPB said:

    Starmer is doing much better now in relative terms, but Labour is still a long way away from being fully convincing. It is still only getting the kind of mid-term leads which should be routine in any parliamentary term, let alone one with a government as dysfunctional as this one.

    Still, the recent reshuffle seems to have improved things somewhat for Labour - Wes Streeting in particular seems to be doing well - but they need to keep at it and really work on being a credible alternative. Can they convince voters, in time for the next GE, that Labour is ready and fit to govern? I don't know, but I've long been of the view that as soon as Labour does look like a serious alternative, voting intentions will shift decisively in their favour.

    Boris keeps them in play, if the Tories get rid how does that change the dynamic. A lot depends on the replacement but anyone will be better than Boris.
    Hi Max,

    I hope you are well, how is the move to Switzerland progressing?

    I think a new leader might re-balance the polls but Labour is back up to its 40% coalition, a new leader is unlikely to make many inroads into that.

    I personally feel the Tory brand is hugely damaged - but we will see
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 2,004
    *exciting post*

    I found something so flipping magical I haven’t never ever seen before I got to share it!
    https://youtu.be/-ZxTCV6wQbA
  • *exciting post*

    I found something so flipping magical I haven’t never ever seen before I got to share it!
    https://youtu.be/-ZxTCV6wQbA

    Your posts always make me smile Moon, even when I can feel down
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 12,499
    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Daily Mail headline: "UK'S FIRST OMICRON DEATH"

    The media and public are going to go from one extreme to the other in the space of a few days.

    Its going to be from "its only mild, nobody dies from it, i will get my booster later"...."100s died today, Boris is killing grannies again, i can't get my booster for 3 weeks panicccccccc".

    Rather than the middle ground of its probably milder, but it is very infectious, if you are vulnerable you should be cautious, if you are not, you probably going to get it, but the vaccines (booster or not) should ensure that you won't suffer hospitalisation.
    Sensible stuff.
    Do not consider a career change to journalism, mind.
    Sensible advice, but a total misreading of the media narrative, which has been of panic, not complacency.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281

    Andy_JS said:

    Daily Mail headline: "UK'S FIRST OMICRON DEATH"

    The media and public are going to go from one extreme to the other in the space of a few days.

    Its going to be from "its only mild, nobody dies from it, i will get my booster later"...."100s died today, Boris is killing grannies again, i can't get my booster for 3 weeks".

    Rather than the middle ground of its probably milder, but it is very infectious, if you are vulnerable you should be cautious, if you are not, you probably going to get it, but the vaccines (booster or not) should ensure that you won't suffer hospitalisation.
    I really don't know where you get this idea from that the mainstream media narrative is one of mildness. That certainly has not been the case up to now.

    Now, this seems to be slowly changing today – there are few examples of discussion of its being mild, but the idea that that is the narrative is for the birds.

    The narrative has been the opposite – one of complete panic.
    The problem is the word "mild". To medical professionals that means not worthy of hospitalisation.
    To most of the general public they think about the illnesses they have had recently. The vast majority colds, and think not so bad. May be able to blag a sneaky duvet day.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 2,461

    Andy_JS said:

    Daily Mail headline: "UK'S FIRST OMICRON DEATH"

    The media and public are going to go from one extreme to the other in the space of a few days.

    Its going to be from "its only mild, nobody dies from it, i will get my booster later"...."100s died today, Boris is killing grannies again, i can't get my booster for 3 weeks".

    Rather than the middle ground of its probably milder, but it is very infectious, if you are vulnerable you should be cautious, if you are not, you probably going to get it, but the vaccines (booster or not) should ensure that you won't suffer hospitalisation.
    I really don't know where you get this idea from that the mainstream media narrative is one of mildness. That certainly has not been the case up to now.

    Now, this seems to be slowly changing today – there are few examples of discussion of its being mild, but the idea that that is the narrative is for the birds.

    The narrative has been the opposite – one of complete panic.
    Its been morning, noon and f##king night that it is mild.....

    Kay Burley this morning was basically calling Javid a liar and a scare mongerer, saying yeah but its mild isn't, well we don't know that for a fact yet, yeah but how many in hospital, well 18 confirmed but...., yeah and how many died, come on, none isn't it, its mild, just admit it, its mild...
    Up until Satuday the media had not even looked at the evidence from SA.
  • I am going to make a bold-ish assertion, that Johnson leads the Tories into the next GE
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited December 2021
    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Daily Mail headline: "UK'S FIRST OMICRON DEATH"

    The media and public are going to go from one extreme to the other in the space of a few days.

    Its going to be from "its only mild, nobody dies from it, i will get my booster later"...."100s died today, Boris is killing grannies again, i can't get my booster for 3 weeks".

    Rather than the middle ground of its probably milder, but it is very infectious, if you are vulnerable you should be cautious, if you are not, you probably going to get it, but the vaccines (booster or not) should ensure that you won't suffer hospitalisation.
    I really don't know where you get this idea from that the mainstream media narrative is one of mildness. That certainly has not been the case up to now.

    Now, this seems to be slowly changing today – there are few examples of discussion of its being mild, but the idea that that is the narrative is for the birds.

    The narrative has been the opposite – one of complete panic.
    The problem is the word "mild". To medical professionals that means not worthy of hospitalisation.
    To most of the general public they think about the illnesses they have had recently. The vast majority colds, and think not so bad. May be able to blag a sneaky duvet day.
    Goes back to Wuhan days....the author of the original "90% get mild disease", everybody took that to me, well that's just a cold for me....the paper definition of mild was "did not require hospitalisation".
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 33,021

    Christmas parties update:

    One postponed

    One confirmed

    Last week's one was staged happily.

    I guess two out of three ain't (that) bad.

    One big lunch for 100+ people = cancelled
    One party for 50 = not cancelled.

    I think people are cancelling not necessarily because they are worried about getting the virus (it may be that) but that they will be pinged and therefore out of the game over Christmas.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 29,560
    edited December 2021
    MaxPB said:

    Starmer is doing much better now in relative terms, but Labour is still a long way away from being fully convincing. It is still only getting the kind of mid-term leads which should be routine in any parliamentary term, let alone one with a government as dysfunctional as this one.

    Still, the recent reshuffle seems to have improved things somewhat for Labour - Wes Streeting in particular seems to be doing well - but they need to keep at it and really work on being a credible alternative. Can they convince voters, in time for the next GE, that Labour is ready and fit to govern? I don't know, but I've long been of the view that as soon as Labour does look like a serious alternative, voting intentions will shift decisively in their favour.

    Boris keeps them in play, if the Tories get rid how does that change the dynamic. A lot depends on the replacement but anyone will be better than Boris.
    Pretty much anyone (well, anyone other than Rees-Mogg) would be better as PM, but anyone better as PM is going to have to make some decisions, which means telling people some things they don't want to hear. Boris did well in 2019 because of his lying, not despite it. Whilst it's gradually getting through to people that they've been conned, the urge to continue to want to be conned is surprisingly strong (see those harrowing tales of people cheated out of their pensions by fraudsters - it's often very hard to convince them not to continue believing the lies). Therefore, it's not necessarily the case that a replacement leader would transform the Conservative Party's prospects, starting from here; the new leader might please one part of Johnson's 2019 support base, but do worse against another part.

    It's this last point which is crucial to the calculations Tory MPs will be making.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 33,472

    MaxPB said:

    Starmer is doing much better now in relative terms, but Labour is still a long way away from being fully convincing. It is still only getting the kind of mid-term leads which should be routine in any parliamentary term, let alone one with a government as dysfunctional as this one.

    Still, the recent reshuffle seems to have improved things somewhat for Labour - Wes Streeting in particular seems to be doing well - but they need to keep at it and really work on being a credible alternative. Can they convince voters, in time for the next GE, that Labour is ready and fit to govern? I don't know, but I've long been of the view that as soon as Labour does look like a serious alternative, voting intentions will shift decisively in their favour.

    Boris keeps them in play, if the Tories get rid how does that change the dynamic. A lot depends on the replacement but anyone will be better than Boris.
    Hi Max,

    I hope you are well, how is the move to Switzerland progressing?

    I think a new leader might re-balance the polls but Labour is back up to its 40% coalition, a new leader is unlikely to make many inroads into that.

    I personally feel the Tory brand is hugely damaged - but we will see
    Hey Horse,
    It's progressing, my wife is currently having second thoughts on the whole thing and we are going on her insistence so 🤷‍♂️

    Labour is getting a lot of anyone but Boris voters right now, if I was polled I'd probably say Labour. I think Starmer is a wet wipe but Boris is debasing the country. A new Tory leader, assuming it isn't Fabricant or Peter Bone would probably be in a good place to win a lot of Tory voters back overnight. The question is whether the new leader could win back northern working class voters. Some of those may come back, some may stay with Labour and some might just stay home.
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710
    edited December 2021
    MaxPB said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Daily Mail headline: "UK'S FIRST OMICRON DEATH"

    The media and public are going to go from one extreme to the other in the space of a few days.

    Its going to be from "its only mild, nobody dies from it, i will get my booster later"...."100s died today, Boris is killing grannies again, i can't get my booster for 3 weeks".

    Rather than the middle ground of its probably milder, but it is very infectious, if you are vulnerable you should be cautious, if you are not, you probably going to get it, but the vaccines (booster or not) should ensure that you won't suffer hospitalisation.
    I really don't know where you get this idea from that the mainstream media narrative is one of mildness. That certainly has not been the case up to now.

    Now, this seems to be slowly changing today – there are few examples of discussion of its being mild, but the idea that that is the narrative is for the birds.

    The narrative has been the opposite – one of complete panic.
    I don't know the Mail splashing a big headline "FIRST DEATH FROM OMICRON" feels worthy of @Leon, I'm not sure how important it is, definitely doesn't warrant a headline. 120 or so people will die from Delta, are they just as worthy of a headline? 1500 people will die of other causes are they worthy of such a headline?

    The media have been incredibly irresponsible to try and chase clicks. This is just another example.
    Omicron can also kill you is actually a useful headline - it says that any stories you've read that omicron is mild aren't true so you do need a booster jab.

    That's not to say that most reporting has been beyond awful but there are times when a headline serves a real purpose.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited December 2021

    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Daily Mail headline: "UK'S FIRST OMICRON DEATH"

    The media and public are going to go from one extreme to the other in the space of a few days.

    Its going to be from "its only mild, nobody dies from it, i will get my booster later"...."100s died today, Boris is killing grannies again, i can't get my booster for 3 weeks panicccccccc".

    Rather than the middle ground of its probably milder, but it is very infectious, if you are vulnerable you should be cautious, if you are not, you probably going to get it, but the vaccines (booster or not) should ensure that you won't suffer hospitalisation.
    Sensible stuff.
    Do not consider a career change to journalism, mind.
    Sensible advice, but a total misreading of the media narrative, which has been of panic, not complacency.
    If you google Omicron and Mild...you get pages and pages and pages from BBC, Sky, etc all publishing pieces saying its mild, nothing to worry about. The South African GP was never off the telly for 4-5 days saying nobody round here is suffering at all.

    Its only when we got the initial results about double vaxxed not really been effective against stopping infection they started to push the panic button.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281

    They wear masks in Asia because of their extensive experience with previous viruses.

    They do.
    But the practice was first normalised because of filthy air quality. There were c 10% masks in Taipei in the 90's. Long before SARS.
  • TimS said:

    Starmer is doing much better now in relative terms, but Labour is still a long way away from being fully convincing. It is still only getting the kind of mid-term leads which should be routine in any parliamentary term, let alone one with a government as dysfunctional as this one.

    Still, the recent reshuffle seems to have improved things somewhat for Labour - Wes Streeting in particular seems to be doing well - but they need to keep at it and really work on being a credible alternative. Can they convince voters, in time for the next GE, that Labour is ready and fit to govern? I don't know, but I've long been of the view that as soon as Labour does look like a serious alternative, voting intentions will shift decisively in their favour.

    I wonder if the maths has changed a bit since the days of more regular mid-term leads though, as it seems to have in the US too. In a highly partisan era we seem to see smaller swings, fewer floating voters and a larger base (and in the UK more churn between parties within the left and right bubbles rather than between) that a shift of a few points from Tory to Labour is more significant than it might have been a decade ago.
    I'm not sure that the recent history supports that - there were some large swings in 2017 and 2019.
  • I see there has been a collision in the Baltic between two ships with 2 crew missing

    It brought back memories of an Uncle we lost when his ship sank in the Tees

    https://news.sky.com/story/two-people-missing-after-cargo-ships-collide-in-the-baltic-sea-and-one-vessel-capsizes-12494775
  • latest information 1576 additional confirmed cases of the #Omicron variant of COVID-19 have been reported across the UK.
    The total number of confirmed COVID-19 Omicron cases in the UK is 4713.


    https://twitter.com/UKHSA/status/1470405213739786254?s=20
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 12,499

    Andy_JS said:

    Daily Mail headline: "UK'S FIRST OMICRON DEATH"

    The media and public are going to go from one extreme to the other in the space of a few days.

    Its going to be from "its only mild, nobody dies from it, i will get my booster later"...."100s died today, Boris is killing grannies again, i can't get my booster for 3 weeks".

    Rather than the middle ground of its probably milder, but it is very infectious, if you are vulnerable you should be cautious, if you are not, you probably going to get it, but the vaccines (booster or not) should ensure that you won't suffer hospitalisation.
    I really don't know where you get this idea from that the mainstream media narrative is one of mildness. That certainly has not been the case up to now.

    Now, this seems to be slowly changing today – there are few examples of discussion of its being mild, but the idea that that is the narrative is for the birds.

    The narrative has been the opposite – one of complete panic.
    Its been morning, noon and f##king night that it is mild.....

    Kay Burley this morning was basically calling Javid a liar and a scare mongerer, saying yeah but its mild isn't, well we don't know that for a fact yet, yeah but how many in hospital, well 18 confirmed but...., yeah and how many died, come on, none isn't it, its mild, just admit it, its mild...
    Nope. There are some examples of that. As I said.

    But the narrative is one of complete panic. You are tone deaf to this.
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710
    edited December 2021
    A great example on why processes need to be double and triple checked by someone else with an eye for detail

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/12/13/purplebricks-shares-plunge-wake-tenancy-law-breaches/

    Purple bricks failed to tell renters that their deposits had been projected in the correct timeframe so may have liabilities of between £2-30m.
  • Scotland cases down slightly vs week ago:

    Scotland Daily Coronavirus (COVID-19) Report · Monday 13th December.

    3,756 new cases (people positive) reported, giving a total of 769,642.

    No new deaths reported, giving a total of 9,719.


    https://twitter.com/UKCovid19Stats/status/1470406163107880965?s=20
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 2,461

    latest information 1576 additional confirmed cases of the #Omicron variant of COVID-19 have been reported across the UK.
    The total number of confirmed COVID-19 Omicron cases in the UK is 4713.


    https://twitter.com/UKHSA/status/1470405213739786254?s=20

    Did they say it was 40% of the cases in London? If so that figure seems a little low
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,359
    TOPPING said:

    Christmas parties update:

    One postponed

    One confirmed

    Last week's one was staged happily.

    I guess two out of three ain't (that) bad.

    One big lunch for 100+ people = cancelled
    One party for 50 = not cancelled.

    I think people are cancelling not necessarily because they are worried about getting the virus (it may be that) but that they will be pinged and therefore out of the game over Christmas.
    It's really not hard to not get pinged if you don't want to.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 33,472

    latest information 1576 additional confirmed cases of the #Omicron variant of COVID-19 have been reported across the UK.
    The total number of confirmed COVID-19 Omicron cases in the UK is 4713.


    https://twitter.com/UKHSA/status/1470405213739786254?s=20

    Did they say it was 40% of the cases in London? If so that figure seems a little low
    Those are sequenced cases, the London stat is based on sampled S-gene dropout.
  • dixiedean said:

    They wear masks in Asia because of their extensive experience with previous viruses.

    They do.
    But the practice was first normalised because of filthy air quality. There were c 10% masks in Taipei in the 90's. Long before SARS.
    Fair point - but it is incorrect to say that "[a] big reason masks are so popular in East Asia is due to very poor air quality and not due to viruses."

    It's both. And masks are/were recommended as part of the fight against COVID in Asia, including in China, Japan and Taiwan
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 12,499
    MaxPB said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Daily Mail headline: "UK'S FIRST OMICRON DEATH"

    The media and public are going to go from one extreme to the other in the space of a few days.

    Its going to be from "its only mild, nobody dies from it, i will get my booster later"...."100s died today, Boris is killing grannies again, i can't get my booster for 3 weeks".

    Rather than the middle ground of its probably milder, but it is very infectious, if you are vulnerable you should be cautious, if you are not, you probably going to get it, but the vaccines (booster or not) should ensure that you won't suffer hospitalisation.
    I really don't know where you get this idea from that the mainstream media narrative is one of mildness. That certainly has not been the case up to now.

    Now, this seems to be slowly changing today – there are few examples of discussion of its being mild, but the idea that that is the narrative is for the birds.

    The narrative has been the opposite – one of complete panic.
    I don't know the Mail splashing a big headline "FIRST DEATH FROM OMICRON" feels worthy of @Leon, I'm not sure how important it is, definitely doesn't warrant a headline. 120 or so people will die from Delta, are they just as worthy of a headline? 1500 people will die of other causes are they worthy of such a headline?

    The media have been incredibly irresponsible to try and chase clicks. This is just another example.
    Indeed. I’m agreeing with you: it’s utter panic out there and Francis is completely wrong in his assessment.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited December 2021
    eek said:

    MaxPB said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Daily Mail headline: "UK'S FIRST OMICRON DEATH"

    The media and public are going to go from one extreme to the other in the space of a few days.

    Its going to be from "its only mild, nobody dies from it, i will get my booster later"...."100s died today, Boris is killing grannies again, i can't get my booster for 3 weeks".

    Rather than the middle ground of its probably milder, but it is very infectious, if you are vulnerable you should be cautious, if you are not, you probably going to get it, but the vaccines (booster or not) should ensure that you won't suffer hospitalisation.
    I really don't know where you get this idea from that the mainstream media narrative is one of mildness. That certainly has not been the case up to now.

    Now, this seems to be slowly changing today – there are few examples of discussion of its being mild, but the idea that that is the narrative is for the birds.

    The narrative has been the opposite – one of complete panic.
    I don't know the Mail splashing a big headline "FIRST DEATH FROM OMICRON" feels worthy of @Leon, I'm not sure how important it is, definitely doesn't warrant a headline. 120 or so people will die from Delta, are they just as worthy of a headline? 1500 people will die of other causes are they worthy of such a headline?

    The media have been incredibly irresponsible to try and chase clicks. This is just another example.
    Omicron can also kill you is actually a useful headline - it says that any stories you've read that omicron is mild aren't true so you do need a booster jab.

    That's not to say that most reporting has been beyond awful but there are times when a headline serves a real purpose.
    Two Covid jabs should still slash risk of dying from Omicron or being hospitalised by 84% even if they offer virtually zero protection against symptoms, SAGE estimates

    Two Pfizer doses give 83.7 per cent protection against hospitalisation and death from the highly-evolved strain.

    A two-dose course of AstraZeneca's vaccine was estimated to reduce the risk of severe disease from Omicron by 77.1 per cent.

    However 6 months out...

    At that point, the Government's scientific advisers believe protection from two AstraZeneca jabs could be as low as 61.3 per cent and 67.6 per cent for Pfizer.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 15,858
    A couple of weeks ago, the government said that they were putting the booster programme 'on steroids'. (A very bad analogy, since steroids are an immuno-suppressant.)

    Have they announced another performance-enhancing drug to represent the latest ramp up in the programme? Boosters on EPO?
  • RattersRatters Posts: 253

    The queue for walk-in booster jabs at St Thomas’ is 3 hours long, and it’s stretching right across Westminster Bridge. @LBC @LBCNews...

    Staff say the queue is now FIVE hours long, but everyone in it will get a dose today.


    https://twitter.com/charlotterlynch/status/1470397037908799496?s=20

    I suspect we'll see some really big vaccine numbers this week. It sounds like there are queues everywhere you look.
  • Emma Raducanu tests positive for covid
  • A couple of weeks ago, the government said that they were putting the booster programme 'on steroids'. (A very bad analogy, since steroids are an immuno-suppressant.)

    Have they announced another performance-enhancing drug to represent the latest ramp up in the programme? Boosters on EPO?

    They've already shifted the goalposts which nobody seems to care about
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited December 2021

    A couple of weeks ago, the government said that they were putting the booster programme 'on steroids'. (A very bad analogy, since steroids are an immuno-suppressant.)

    Have they announced another performance-enhancing drug to represent the latest ramp up in the programme? Boosters on EPO?

    No, they actually said from the 13th, which is today. The NHS were caught totally off guard just how sweeping the JCVI updated recommendation was and were in no position to add massive capacity straight away.

    The belief was that the JCVI would simply say everybody should get a booster after 6 months, not effectively everybody should get a booster now.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,756
    edited December 2021
    LDs now a 65% chance in N Shrops according to Betfair Exchange.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 17,673
    eek said:

    A great example on why processes need to be double and triple checked by someone else with an eye for detail

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/12/13/purplebricks-shares-plunge-wake-tenancy-law-breaches/

    Purple bricks failed to tell renters that their deposits had been projected in the correct timeframe so may have liabilities of between £2-30m.

    Under resource is usually the reason for this. I see the danger in my new career already.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 33,472

    dixiedean said:

    They wear masks in Asia because of their extensive experience with previous viruses.

    They do.
    But the practice was first normalised because of filthy air quality. There were c 10% masks in Taipei in the 90's. Long before SARS.
    Fair point - but it is incorrect to say that "[a] big reason masks are so popular in East Asia is due to very poor air quality and not due to viruses."

    It's both. And masks are/were recommended as part of the fight against COVID in Asia, including in China, Japan and Taiwan
    I've been to China, people wore masks because the air quality was oppressively poor in Beijing and other major cities. We were given particulate filter masks by the hotel. This is well before COVID and well after SARS. One of the reasons China will get behind climate change action and renewable energy is because coal energy is ruining lives and the people are fed up.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 5,153
    TOPPING said:

    Christmas parties update:

    One postponed

    One confirmed

    Last week's one was staged happily.

    I guess two out of three ain't (that) bad.

    One big lunch for 100+ people = cancelled
    One party for 50 = not cancelled.

    I think people are cancelling not necessarily because they are worried about getting the virus (it may be that) but that they will be pinged and therefore out of the game over Christmas.
    Agree entirely. My Mum is now avoiding social contact for exactly that reason - having missed the family Christmas last year she values it far and above anything which may happen in the run-up to it. She is no more concerned about the risk of catching the virus itself than she should be, but is very worried about missing another Christmas Day.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 938

    I see there has been a collision in the Baltic between two ships with 2 crew missing

    It brought back memories of an Uncle we lost when his ship sank in the Tees

    https://news.sky.com/story/two-people-missing-after-cargo-ships-collide-in-the-baltic-sea-and-one-vessel-capsizes-12494775

    Not good, very cold water in the Baltic at the moment , so if you go into the drink you are unlikely to survive. Condolences for those in peril on the sea.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 36,028
    edited December 2021

    MaxPB said:

    Starmer is doing much better now in relative terms, but Labour is still a long way away from being fully convincing. It is still only getting the kind of mid-term leads which should be routine in any parliamentary term, let alone one with a government as dysfunctional as this one.

    Still, the recent reshuffle seems to have improved things somewhat for Labour - Wes Streeting in particular seems to be doing well - but they need to keep at it and really work on being a credible alternative. Can they convince voters, in time for the next GE, that Labour is ready and fit to govern? I don't know, but I've long been of the view that as soon as Labour does look like a serious alternative, voting intentions will shift decisively in their favour.

    Boris keeps them in play, if the Tories get rid how does that change the dynamic. A lot depends on the replacement but anyone will be better than Boris.
    Pretty much anyone (well, anyone other than Rees-Mogg) would be better as PM, but anyone better as PM is going to have to make some decisions, which means telling people some things they don't want to hear. Boris did well in 2019 because of his lying, not despite it. Whilst it's gradually getting through to people that they've been conned, the urge to continue to want to be conned is surprisingly strong (see those harrowing tales of people cheated out of their pensions by fraudsters - it's often very hard to convince them not to continue believing the lies). Therefore, it's not necessarily the case that a replacement leader would transform the Conservative Party's prospects, starting from here; the new leader might please one part of Johnson's 2019 support base, but do worse against another part.

    It's this last point which is crucial to the calculations Tory MPs will be making.

    That Liz Truss would make a better PM than Johnson says a lot more about him than her! I'd put Priti Patel next to Rees Mogg.

  • Should those letter have not gone out 2 weeks ago?

    England’s Deputy Chief Medical Officer Prof Jonathan Van Tam is writing to every vaccination volunteer, encouraging them to come back and help with the booster programme.

    St John Ambulance trained around 30,000 people between November and March last year to help healthcare professionals administer the jabs.

    Prof Van Tam writes: “You were a huge part of this achievement, but now we need your help again to deliver booster vaccinations at a real rate of knots.

    “It’s going to require a Herculean effort and I am asking you personally to be a part of it by undertaking vaccinator shifts as soon as you possibly can."
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,359
    Now the Rebels for tomorrow are up to 75... If a government can only pass it's most crucial legislation with the help of another party, at what point do you have to start denoting it a coalition, or confidence and supply arrangement? Starmer now has more power than clegg ever did.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 33,472

    eek said:

    MaxPB said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Daily Mail headline: "UK'S FIRST OMICRON DEATH"

    The media and public are going to go from one extreme to the other in the space of a few days.

    Its going to be from "its only mild, nobody dies from it, i will get my booster later"...."100s died today, Boris is killing grannies again, i can't get my booster for 3 weeks".

    Rather than the middle ground of its probably milder, but it is very infectious, if you are vulnerable you should be cautious, if you are not, you probably going to get it, but the vaccines (booster or not) should ensure that you won't suffer hospitalisation.
    I really don't know where you get this idea from that the mainstream media narrative is one of mildness. That certainly has not been the case up to now.

    Now, this seems to be slowly changing today – there are few examples of discussion of its being mild, but the idea that that is the narrative is for the birds.

    The narrative has been the opposite – one of complete panic.
    I don't know the Mail splashing a big headline "FIRST DEATH FROM OMICRON" feels worthy of @Leon, I'm not sure how important it is, definitely doesn't warrant a headline. 120 or so people will die from Delta, are they just as worthy of a headline? 1500 people will die of other causes are they worthy of such a headline?

    The media have been incredibly irresponsible to try and chase clicks. This is just another example.
    Omicron can also kill you is actually a useful headline - it says that any stories you've read that omicron is mild aren't true so you do need a booster jab.

    That's not to say that most reporting has been beyond awful but there are times when a headline serves a real purpose.
    Two Covid jabs should still slash risk of dying from Omicron or being hospitalised by 84% even if they offer virtually zero protection against symptoms, SAGE estimates

    Two Pfizer doses give 83.7 per cent protection against hospitalisation and death from the highly-evolved strain.

    A two-dose course of AstraZeneca's vaccine was estimated to reduce the risk of severe disease from Omicron by 77.1 per cent.

    However 6 months out...

    At that point, the Government's scientific advisers believe protection from two AstraZeneca jabs could be as low as 61.3 per cent and 67.6 per cent for Pfizer.
    Equates to a hospitalisation rate of 2% for all infected people, before booster jabs are accounted for which will have a substantial increase in the protection from severe symptoms.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281
    My reading is that it is like the famous quote about the Tory Party
    "Veering from complacency to blind panic" with nowt in between.
    There is a great deal of both extremes about. Little in the middle.

  • That Liz Truss would make a better PM than Johnson says a lot more about him than her! I'd put Priti Patel next to Rees Mogg.

    It's a crowded field of absolutely awful alternatives, but I think this puts Rees-Mogg firmly in top place:

    https://twitter.com/PutneyFleur/status/1470383841022029826
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited December 2021
    maaarsh said:

    Now the Rebels for tomorrow are up to 75... If a government can only pass it's most crucial legislation with the help of another party, at what point do you have to start denoting it a coalition, or confidence and supply arrangement? Starmer now has more power than clegg ever did.

    They are on the wrong side of the public on this, or more precisely wrong side of what the public will perceive they stand for....

    I am against things like vaccine passport on a number of levels, mostly because they won't actually do anything in terms of COVID. But all the public will hear is Tory backbenchers are against moves to make things safer for people.

    It will be spun as they want to go all herd immunity again, and that scares the public.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,359
    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    MaxPB said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Daily Mail headline: "UK'S FIRST OMICRON DEATH"

    The media and public are going to go from one extreme to the other in the space of a few days.

    Its going to be from "its only mild, nobody dies from it, i will get my booster later"...."100s died today, Boris is killing grannies again, i can't get my booster for 3 weeks".

    Rather than the middle ground of its probably milder, but it is very infectious, if you are vulnerable you should be cautious, if you are not, you probably going to get it, but the vaccines (booster or not) should ensure that you won't suffer hospitalisation.
    I really don't know where you get this idea from that the mainstream media narrative is one of mildness. That certainly has not been the case up to now.

    Now, this seems to be slowly changing today – there are few examples of discussion of its being mild, but the idea that that is the narrative is for the birds.

    The narrative has been the opposite – one of complete panic.
    I don't know the Mail splashing a big headline "FIRST DEATH FROM OMICRON" feels worthy of @Leon, I'm not sure how important it is, definitely doesn't warrant a headline. 120 or so people will die from Delta, are they just as worthy of a headline? 1500 people will die of other causes are they worthy of such a headline?

    The media have been incredibly irresponsible to try and chase clicks. This is just another example.
    Omicron can also kill you is actually a useful headline - it says that any stories you've read that omicron is mild aren't true so you do need a booster jab.

    That's not to say that most reporting has been beyond awful but there are times when a headline serves a real purpose.
    Two Covid jabs should still slash risk of dying from Omicron or being hospitalised by 84% even if they offer virtually zero protection against symptoms, SAGE estimates

    Two Pfizer doses give 83.7 per cent protection against hospitalisation and death from the highly-evolved strain.

    A two-dose course of AstraZeneca's vaccine was estimated to reduce the risk of severe disease from Omicron by 77.1 per cent.

    However 6 months out...

    At that point, the Government's scientific advisers believe protection from two AstraZeneca jabs could be as low as 61.3 per cent and 67.6 per cent for Pfizer.
    Equates to a hospitalisation rate of 2% for all infected people, before booster jabs are accounted for which will have a substantial increase in the protection from severe symptoms.
    with the boosters about to hit 25m, targetted at the most vulnerable and likely to reduce hospitalisation risk by at least a factor of 10, it becomes quite hard to construct this NHS squashing Tsunami Boris can see on the horizon.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284

    MaxPB said:

    Starmer is doing much better now in relative terms, but Labour is still a long way away from being fully convincing. It is still only getting the kind of mid-term leads which should be routine in any parliamentary term, let alone one with a government as dysfunctional as this one.

    Still, the recent reshuffle seems to have improved things somewhat for Labour - Wes Streeting in particular seems to be doing well - but they need to keep at it and really work on being a credible alternative. Can they convince voters, in time for the next GE, that Labour is ready and fit to govern? I don't know, but I've long been of the view that as soon as Labour does look like a serious alternative, voting intentions will shift decisively in their favour.

    Boris keeps them in play, if the Tories get rid how does that change the dynamic. A lot depends on the replacement but anyone will be better than Boris.
    Pretty much anyone (well, anyone other than Rees-Mogg) would be better as PM, but anyone better as PM is going to have to make some decisions, which means telling people some things they don't want to hear. Boris did well in 2019 because of his lying, not despite it. Whilst it's gradually getting through to people that they've been conned, the urge to continue to want to be conned is surprisingly strong (see those harrowing tales of people cheated out of their pensions by fraudsters - it's often very hard to convince them not to continue believing the lies). Therefore, it's not necessarily the case that a replacement leader would transform the Conservative Party's prospects, starting from here; the new leader might please one part of Johnson's 2019 support base, but do worse against another part.

    It's this last point which is crucial to the calculations Tory MPs will be making.

    That Liz Truss would make a better PM than Johnson says a lot more about him than her! I'd put Priti Patel next to Rees Mogg.

    Priti Patel or Jacob Rees-Mogg are potential candidates for a future Tory leader of the opposition.

    However hard to see past Sunak for next PM if Boris goes, with Truss and Javid and maybe Zahawi dark horses.

    A 5% poll lead for Labour only not too bad all things considering however and Boris will be hoping he gets a 'booster bounce' by January
  • Be good if we could stop calling each other liars I think

    I always lie. In fact, I am lying to you now!

  • That Liz Truss would make a better PM than Johnson says a lot more about him than her! I'd put Priti Patel next to Rees Mogg.

    It's a crowded field of absolutely awful alternatives, but I think this puts Rees-Mogg firmly in top place:

    https://twitter.com/PutneyFleur/status/1470383841022029826

    Bloody hell!

  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,359

    maaarsh said:

    Now the Rebels for tomorrow are up to 75... If a government can only pass it's most crucial legislation with the help of another party, at what point do you have to start denoting it a coalition, or confidence and supply arrangement? Starmer now has more power than clegg ever did.

    They are on the wrong side of the public on this, or more precisely wrong side of what the public will perceive they stand for....

    I am against vaccine passport on a number of levels, mostly because they won't actually do anything. But all the public will hear is Tory backbenchers are against moves to make things safer for people.
    That's a different question. There's no doubt the right to call unanswered prime rime press coverage at will means the debate is a little one sided, but fortunately most of the rebels are used to being unpopular anyway.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,756
    edited December 2021
    maaarsh said:

    Now the Rebels for tomorrow are up to 75... If a government can only pass it's most crucial legislation with the help of another party, at what point do you have to start denoting it a coalition, or confidence and supply arrangement? Starmer now has more power than clegg ever did.

    It would be interesting to know how many of the 75 were part of the 160 who supported Johnson at the 2019 leadership contest.
  • Interesting. My old MP Matt "I love Parmos me" Vickers has just dropped his latest video. Complete with Rishi-style signature on the end. Neighbouring MPs but even so!

    https://twitter.com/Matt_VickersMP/status/1470408518721282064
This discussion has been closed.